WorldWideScience

Sample records for major storm events

  1. Solar sources of interplanetary southward B/sub z/ events responsible for major magnetic storms (1978--1979)

    Tang, F.; Tsurutani, B.T.; Gonzalez, W.D.; Akasofu, S.I.; Smith, E.J.

    1989-01-01

    Tsurutani et al. [1988] analyzed the 10 intense interplanetary southward B/sub z/ events that led to major magnetic storms (Dst 3.0) are associated with prominence eruptions. For three of the five southward B/sub z/ events in which the driver gases are the causes of the intense southward field leading to magnetic storms, the photospheric fields of the solar sources have no dominant southward component, indicating the driver gas fields do not always result from a simple outward convection of solar magnetic fields. Finally we compare the solar events and their resulting interplanetary shocks and find that the standard solar parameters do not correlate with the strengths of the resulting shocks at 1 AU. The implications are discussed. copyright American Geophysical Union 1989

  2. Challenges in Downscaling Surge and Flooding Predictions Associated with Major Coastal Storm Events

    Bowman, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal zone managers, elected officials and emergency planning personnel are continually seeking more reliable estimates of storm surge and inundation for better land use planning, the design, construction and operation of coastal defense systems, resilience evaluation and evacuation planning. Customers of modern regional weather and storm surge prediction models demand high resolution, speed, accuracy, with informative, interactive graphics and easy evaluation of potentially dangerous threats to life and property. These challenges continue to get more difficult as the demand for street-scale and even building-scale predictions increase. Fluctuations in sub-grid-scale wind and water velocities can lead to unsuspected, unanticipated and dangerous flooding in local communities. But how reliable and believable are these models given the inherent natural uncertainty and chaotic behavior in the underlying dynamics, which can lead to rapid and unexpected perturbations in the wind and pressure fields and hence coastal flooding? Traditionally this uncertainty has been quantified by the use of the ensemble method, where a suite of model runs are made with varying physics and initial conditions, presenting the mean and variance of the ensemble as the best metrics possible. But this assumes that each component is equally possible and is statistically independent of the others. But this is rarely true, although the "safety in numbers" approach is comforting to those faced with life and death decisions. An example of the ensemble method is presented for the trajectory of superstorm Sandy's storm center as it approached coastal New Jersey. If one were to ask the question "was Sandy a worst case scenario", the answer would be "no: small variations in the timing (vis-à-vis tide phase) and location of landfall could easily have led to an additional surge of +50 cm at The Battery NY with even more catastrophic consequences to those experienced".

  3. NCDC Storm Events Database

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Data is provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) and contain statistics on personal injuries and damage estimates. Storm Data covers the United States of...

  4. Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

    Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

  5. Relative outflow enhancements during major geomagnetic storms – Cluster observations

    A. Schillings

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The rate of ion outflow from the polar ionosphere is known to vary by orders of magnitude, depending on the geomagnetic activity. However, the upper limit of the outflow rate during the largest geomagnetic storms is not well constrained due to poor spatial coverage during storm events. In this paper, we analyse six major geomagnetic storms between 2001 and 2004 using Cluster data. The six major storms fulfil the criteria of Dst  < −100 nT or Kp  > 7+. Since the shape of the magnetospheric regions (plasma mantle, lobe and inner magnetosphere are distorted during large magnetic storms, we use both plasma beta (β and ion characteristics to define a spatial box where the upward O+ flux scaled to an ionospheric reference altitude for the extreme event is observed. The relative enhancement of the scaled outflow in the spatial boxes as compared to the data from the full year when the storm occurred is estimated. Only O+ data were used because H+ may have a solar wind origin. The storm time data for most cases showed up as a clearly distinguishable separate peak in the distribution toward the largest fluxes observed. The relative enhancement in the outflow region during storm time is 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher compared to less disturbed time. The largest relative scaled outflow enhancement is 83 (7 November 2004 and the highest scaled O+ outflow observed is 2  ×  1014 m−2 s−1 (29 October 2003.

  6. Storm runoff analysis using environmental isotopes and major ions

    Fritz, P.; Cherry, J.A.; Sklash, M.; Weyer, K.U.

    1976-01-01

    At a given locality the oxygen-18 content of rainwater varies from storm to storm but within broad seasonal trends. Very frequently, especially during heavy summer storms, the stable isotope composition of rainwater differs from that of the groundwater in the area. This isotopic difference can be used to differentiate between 'prestorm' and 'rain' components in storm runoff. This approach to the use of natural 18 O was applied in four hydrogeologically very different basins in Canada. Their surface areas range from less than 2km 2 to more than 700km 2 . Before, during and after the storm events samples of stream water, groundwater and rain were analysed for 18 O and in some cases for deuterium, major ions and electrical conductance. The 18 O hydrograph separations show that groundwater was a major component of the runoff in each of the basins, and usually exceeded 50% of the total water discharged. Even at peak stream flow most of discharge was subsurface water. The identification of geographic sources rather than time sources appears possible if isotope techniques are used in conjunction with chemical analyses, hydrological data - such as flow measurements - and visual observations. (author)

  7. Securing Major Events

    Loeoef, Susanna

    2013-01-01

    When asked why the IAEA should provide nuclear security support to countries that organize large public events, Nuclear Security Officer Sophia Miaw answers quickly and without hesitation. ''Imagine any major public event such as the Olympics, a football championship, or an Expo. If a dirty bomb were to be exploded at a site where tens of thousands of people congregate, the radioactive contamination would worsen the effects of the bomb, increase the number of casualties, impede a rapid emergency response, and cause long term disruption in the vicinity,'' she said. Avoiding such nightmarish scenarios is the driving purpose behind the assistance the IAEA offers States that host major sporting or other public events. The support can range from a single training course to a comprehensive programme that includes threat assessment, training, loaned equipment and exercises. The type and scope of assistance depends on the host country's needs. ''We incorporate nuclear security measures into their security plan. We don't create anything new,'' Miaw said

  8. Storms

    Kai, Keizo; Melrose, D.B.; Suzuki, S.

    1985-01-01

    At metre and decametre wavelengths long-lasting solar radio emission, consisting of thousands of short-lived spikes superimposed on a slowly varying continuum, is observed. This type of storm emission may continue for periods ranging from a few hours to several days; the long duration is one of the characteristics which distinguish storms from other types of solar radio emission. These events are called storms or noise storms by analogy with geomagnetic storms. (author)

  9. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    Storm surges are a major concern for many coastal communities, and rising levels of surges is a key concern in relation to climate change. The sea level of a statistical 100-year or 1000-year storm surge event and similar statistical measures are used for spatial planning and emergency preparedness...

  10. Event storm detection and identification in communication systems

    Albaghdadi, Mouayad; Briley, Bruce; Evens, Martha

    2006-01-01

    Event storms are the manifestation of an important class of abnormal behaviors in communication systems. They occur when a large number of nodes throughout the system generate a set of events within a small period of time. It is essential for network management systems to detect every event storm and identify its cause, in order to prevent and repair potential system faults. This paper presents a set of techniques for the effective detection and identification of event storms in communication systems. First, we introduce a new algorithm to synchronize events to a single node in the system. Second, the system's event log is modeled as a normally distributed random process. This is achieved by using data analysis techniques to explore and then model the statistical behavior of the event log. Third, event storm detection is proposed using a simple test statistic combined with an exponential smoothing technique to overcome the non-stationary behavior of event logs. Fourth, the system is divided into non-overlapping regions to locate the main contributing regions of a storm. We show that this technique provides us with a method for event storm identification. Finally, experimental results from a commercially deployed multimedia communication system that uses these techniques demonstrate their effectiveness

  11. Variations in tritium levels during single storm events

    Smith, L.W.

    1979-06-01

    Precipitation samples have been taken over a period of one calendar year to determine the variables in environmental tritium during single storm events. Where possible, comment is made on the hydrological implications of these variations

  12. Phosphorus Dynamics along River Continuum during Typhoon Storm Events

    Ming Fai Chow

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Information on riverine phosphorus (P dynamics during typhoon storm events remains scarce in subtropical regions. Thus, this study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of riverine phosphorus in a headwater catchment during three typhoon events. Continuous sampling (3 h intervals of stormwater samples and discharge data were conducted at five locations, which represent the upstream, transitional zone, and downstream areas of the main inflow river. The results revealed that the average event mean concentrations (EMCs for total dissolved phosphorus (TDP and particulate phosphorus (PP in the upstream catchment of Fei-Tsui reservoir were 15.66 μg/L and 11.94 μg/L, respectively. There was at least a 1.3-fold increase in flow-weighted concentrations of TDP and PP from the upper to lower reaches of the main stream. PP and TDP were transported either in clockwise or anticlockwise directions, depending on storm intensity and source. The transport of TDP was primarily regulated by the subsurface flow during the storm event. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP contributes more than 50% of the TDP load in moderate storms, while extreme storms supply a greater dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP load into the stream. TDP accounted for approximately 50% of TP load during typhoon storms. Mobilization of all P forms was observed from upstream to downstream of the river, except for DOP. A decrease of DOP load on passing downstream may reflect the change in phosphorus form along the river continuum. Peak discharge and antecedent dry days are correlated positively with P fluxes, indicating that river bank erosion and re-suspension of within-channel sediment are the dominant pathways of P during typhoon storm periods.

  13. Contraction of online response to major events.

    Szell, Michael; Grauwin, Sébastian; Ratti, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying regularities in behavioral dynamics is of crucial interest for understanding collective social events such as panics or political revolutions. With the widespread use of digital communication media it has become possible to study massive data streams of user-created content in which individuals express their sentiments, often towards a specific topic. Here we investigate messages from various online media created in response to major, collectively followed events such as sport tournaments, presidential elections, or a large snow storm. We relate content length and message rate, and find a systematic correlation during events which can be described by a power law relation--the higher the excitation, the shorter the messages. We show that on the one hand this effect can be observed in the behavior of most regular users, and on the other hand is accentuated by the engagement of additional user demographics who only post during phases of high collective activity. Further, we identify the distributions of content lengths as lognormals in line with statistical linguistics, and suggest a phenomenological law for the systematic dependence of the message rate to the lognormal mean parameter. Our measurements have practical implications for the design of micro-blogging and messaging services. In the case of the existing service Twitter, we show that the imposed limit of 140 characters per message currently leads to a substantial fraction of possibly dissatisfying to compose tweets that need to be truncated by their users.

  14. Contraction of online response to major events.

    Michael Szell

    Full Text Available Quantifying regularities in behavioral dynamics is of crucial interest for understanding collective social events such as panics or political revolutions. With the widespread use of digital communication media it has become possible to study massive data streams of user-created content in which individuals express their sentiments, often towards a specific topic. Here we investigate messages from various online media created in response to major, collectively followed events such as sport tournaments, presidential elections, or a large snow storm. We relate content length and message rate, and find a systematic correlation during events which can be described by a power law relation--the higher the excitation, the shorter the messages. We show that on the one hand this effect can be observed in the behavior of most regular users, and on the other hand is accentuated by the engagement of additional user demographics who only post during phases of high collective activity. Further, we identify the distributions of content lengths as lognormals in line with statistical linguistics, and suggest a phenomenological law for the systematic dependence of the message rate to the lognormal mean parameter. Our measurements have practical implications for the design of micro-blogging and messaging services. In the case of the existing service Twitter, we show that the imposed limit of 140 characters per message currently leads to a substantial fraction of possibly dissatisfying to compose tweets that need to be truncated by their users.

  15. Solute Response To Arid-Climate Managed-River Flow During Storm Events

    McLean, B.; Shock, E.

    2006-12-01

    Storm pulses are widely used in unmanaged, temperate and subtropical river systems to resolve in-stream surface and subsurface flow components. Resulting catchment-scale hydrochemical mixing models yield insight into mechanisms of solute transport. Managed systems are far more complicated due to the human need for high quality water resources, which drives processes that are superimposed on most, if not all, of the unmanaged components. As an example, an increasingly large portion of the water supply for the Phoenix metropolitan area is derived from multiple surface water sources that are impounded, diverted and otherwise managed upstream from the urban core that consumes the water and produces anthropogenic impacts. During large storm events this managed system is perturbed towards natural behavior as it receives inputs from natural hydrologic pathways in addition to impervious surfaces and storm water drainage channels. Our goals in studying managed river systems during this critical transition state are to determine how the well- characterized behavior of natural systems break down as the system responds then returns to its managed state. Using storm events as perturbations we can contrast an arid managed system with the unmanaged system it approaches during the storm event. In the process, we can extract geochemical consequences specifically related to unknown urban components in the form of chemical fingerprints. The effects of river management on solute behavior were assessed by taking advantage of several anomalously heavy winter storm events in late 2004 and early 2005 using a rigorous sampling routine. Several hundred samples collected between January and October 2005 were analyzed for major ion, isotopic, and trace metal concentrations with 78 individual measurements for each sample. The data are used to resolve managed watershed processes, mechanisms of solute transport and river mixing from anthropogenic inputs. Our results show that concentrations of

  16. A Novel Ice Storm Experiment for Evaluating the Ecological Impacts of These Extreme Weather Events

    Driscoll, C. T.; Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Fahey, T.; Fahey, R. T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Hawley, G. J.; Schaberg, P. G.

    2017-12-01

    Ice storms are among the most destructive natural disturbances in some regions of the world, and are an example of an extreme weather event that can profoundly disrupt ecosystem function. Despite potential dire consequences of ice storms on ecosystems and society, we are poorly positioned to predict responses because severe ice storms are infrequent and understudied. Since it is difficult to determine when and where ice storms will occur, most previous research has consisted of ad hoc attempts to characterize impacts in the wake of major icing events. To evaluate ice storm effects in a more controlled manner, we conducted a novel ice storm manipulation experiment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. Water was sprayed above the forest canopy in sub-freezing conditions to simulate a glaze ice event. Treatments included replicate plots that received three levels of radial ice thickness (6, 13, and 19 mm) and reference plots that were not sprayed. Additionally, two of the mid-level treatment plots received ice applications in back-to-back years to evaluate effects associated with ice storm frequency. Measures of the forest canopy, including hemispherical photography, photosynthetically active radiation, and ground-based LiDAR, indicated that the ice loads clearly damaged vegetation and opened up the canopy, allowing more light to penetrate. These changes in the canopy were reflected in measurements of fine and coarse woody debris that were commensurate with the level of icing. Soil respiration declined in the most heavily damaged plots, which we attribute to changes in root activity. Although soil solution nitrogen showed clear seasonal patterns, there was no treatment response. These results differ from the severe regional natural ice storm of 1998, which caused large leaching losses of nitrate in soil solutions and stream water during the growing season after the event, due to lack of uptake by damaged vegetation. It is not yet clear why there

  17. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    for tide gauge measurements, with 120 years of data available for the calculations. However, the oldest of these tide gauge stations was set up after a major storm surge in 1872, and no events of similar severity have occurred since. Including the evidence of the historic events from the 18th century...... changes the return period statistics, with a best estimate of a 100 year event changing from 1.5 meters (Sørensen et al. 2013) to 2.6 [2.2 – 2.8] meters (present study) in Køge just south of Copenhagen. Thus, with the tide gauge-based statistics, the storm surge on January 4 2017 was a 100 year event......, but with the revised statistics using historic evidence, much larger events can be expected. Further, we assess the very large impact of sea level rise on the storm surge statistics. As an example, according to the official statistics of southern Copenhagen, the flooding of a present day 100 year event...

  18. Major events and minor episodes

    Amaldi, U.

    2014-01-01

    Bruno Pontecorvo was a freshly graduated twenty one years old physicist when he joined, in the summer of 1934, the research group led by Enrico Fermi. In October the Panisperna boys would make their most important discovery – radioactivity induced by slow neutrons – and shortly thereafter would be parted by personal and historical events. This paper describes some episodes of those early years and of later periods, sketching a portrait of the team: starting from the extraordinary human and scientific experience of via Panisperna, up to the patent negotiations in USA, to which Pontecorvo’s flight to URSS put an end with unexpected consequences; getting to his first return in Italy, allowed by the sovietic government in 1978, on the occasion of the conference celebrating Edoardo Amaldi’s 70. anniversary. That was the first of several encounters of the author of this paper with Bruno Pontecorvo, which are here briefly recounted, as minor episodes giving a personal perspective on the man.

  19. Effects of dust storm events on weekly clinic visits related to pulmonary tuberculosis disease in Minqin, China

    Wang, Yun; Wang, Ruoyu; Ming, Jing; Liu, Guangxiu; Chen, Tuo; Liu, Xinfeng; Liu, Haixia; Zhen, Yunhe; Cheng, Guodong

    2016-02-01

    Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a major public health problem in China. Minqin, a Northwest county of China, has a very high number of annual PTB clinic visits and it is also known for its severe dust storms. The epidemic usually begins in February and ends in July, while the dust storms mainly occur throughout spring and early summer, thereby suggesting that there might be a close link between the causative agent of PTB and dust storms. We investigated the general impact of dust storms on PTB over time by analyzing the variation in weekly clinic visits in Minqin during 2005-2012. We used the Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test and a regression model to determine the seasonal periodicity of PTB and dust storms in a time series, as well as assessing the relationships between meteorological variables and weekly PTB clinic visits. After comparing the number of weekly PTB cases in Gansu province with dust storm events, we detected a clear link between the population dynamics of PTB and climate events, i.e., the onset of epidemics and dust storms (defined by an atmospheric index) occurred in almost the same mean week. Thus, particulate matter might be the cause of PTB outbreaks on dust storm days. It is highly likely that the significant decline in annual clinic visits was closely associated with improvements in the local environment, which prevented desertification and decreased the frequency of dust storm events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to provide clear evidence that a PTB epidemic was affected by dust storms in China, which may give insights into the association between this environmental problem and the evolution of epidemic disease.

  20. The 2015 Summer Solstice Storm: One of the Major Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 Observed at Ground Level

    Augusto, C. R. A.; Navia, C. E.; de Oliveira, M. N.; Nepomuceno, A. A.; Raulin, J. P.; Tueros, E.; de Mendonça, R. R. S.; Fauth, A. C.; Vieira de Souza, H.; Kopenkin, V.; Sinzi, T.

    2018-05-01

    We report on the 22 - 23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm that occurred at the summer solstice. There have been fewer intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, than in the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015, when one of the largest solar active regions (AR 12371) of Solar Cycle 24 that was located close to the central meridian, produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The impact of these CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere resulted in a moderate to severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22 - 23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm on 24 June. The G4 solstice storm was the second largest (so far) geomagnetic storm of Cycle 24. We highlight the ground-level observations made with the New-Tupi, Muonca, and the CARPET El Leoncito cosmic-ray detectors that are located within the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. These observations are studied in correlation with data obtained by space-borne detectors (ACE, GOES, SDO, and SOHO) and other ground-based experiments. The CME designations are taken from the Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) automated catalog. As expected, Forbush decreases (FD) associated with the passing CMEs were recorded by these detectors. We note a peculiar feature linked to a severe geomagnetic storm event. The 21 June 2015 CME 0091 (CACTus CME catalog number) was likely associated with the 22 June summer solstice FD event. The angular width of CME 0091 was very narrow and measured {˜} 56° degrees seen from Earth. In most cases, only CME halos and partial halos lead to severe geomagnetic storms. We perform a cross-check analysis of the FD events detected during the rise phase of Solar Cycle 24, the geomagnetic parameters, and the CACTus CME catalog. Our study suggests that narrow angular-width CMEs that erupt in a westward direction from the Sun-Earth line can lead to moderate and severe geomagnetic storms. We also report on the strong solar proton

  1. Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US coastal cities

    Wahl, Thomas; Jain, Shaleen; Bender, Jens; Meyers, Steven; Luther, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a well-known facet of natural hazards along the US coastline where nearly 40% of the population resides in coastal counties. Given the heavy reliance on the coastal zone for natural resources and economic activity, flood preparedness and safety is a key element of long-term resilience. A clear understanding of the various flood types and changes in the frequency of their occurrence is critical towards reliable estimates of vulnerability and potential impacts in the near-term as well as into the future. When the two main flood drivers for coastal areas storm surge and heavy precipitation occur in tandem the potential for significant flooding is much greater than from either in isolation. Exploring the probability of these 'compound events' and understanding the processes driving them is essential to mitigate the associated high impact risks. For the contiguous US the likelihood of the joint occurrence of the two phenomena is largely unknown. Here we show - using storm surge and precipitation records spanning the last century - that the risk of compound flooding is higher for the US east and Gulf coasts, relative to the west coast. We also show that the number of compound events has increased significantly over the last century along large coastline stretches including many of the major coastal cities. For New York City - as an example - this increase is attributed to a shift towards storm surge weather patterns also favouring high precipitation. Preliminary analyses reveal that these synoptic scale changes are closely linked to large scale and low frequency climate variations. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing the risk of compound flooding within the design process of coastal and urban infrastructure in a non-stationary framework and to explore the potential effects of climate change on these high impact events.

  2. Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate Storm Events

    Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge...

  3. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  4. Identifying Preserved Storm Events on Beaches from Trenches and Cores

    Wadman, H. M.; Gallagher, E. L.; McNinch, J.; Reniers, A.; Koktas, M.

    2014-12-01

    Recent research suggests that even small scale variations in grain size in the shallow stratigraphy of sandy beaches can significantly influence large-scale morphology change. However, few quantitative studies of variations in shallow stratigraphic layers, as differentiated by variations in mean grain size, have been conducted, in no small part due to the difficulty of collecting undisturbed sediment cores in the energetic lower beach and swash zone. Due to this lack of quantitative stratigraphic grain size data, most coastal morphology models assume that uniform grain sizes dominate sandy beaches, allowing for little to no temporal or spatial variations in grain size heterogeneity. In a first-order attempt to quantify small-scale, temporal and spatial variations in beach stratigraphy, thirty-five vibracores were collected at the USACE Field Research Facility (FRF), Duck, NC, in March-April of 2014 using the FRF's Coastal Research and Amphibious Buggy (CRAB). Vibracores were collected at set locations along a cross-shore profile from the toe of the dune to a water depth of ~1m in the surf zone. Vibracores were repeatedly collected from the same locations throughout a tidal cycle, as well as pre- and post a nor'easter event. In addition, two ~1.5m deep trenches were dug in the cross-shore and along-shore directions (each ~14m in length) after coring was completed to allow better interpretation of the stratigraphic sequences observed in the vibracores. The elevations of coherent stratigraphic layers, as revealed in vibracore-based fence diagrams and trench data, are used to relate specific observed stratigraphic sequences to individual storm events observed at the FRF. These data provide a first-order, quantitative examination of the small-scale temporal and spatial variability of shallow grain size along an open, sandy coastline. The data will be used to refine morphological model predictions to include variations in grain size and associated shallow stratigraphy.

  5. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

    J. Hosek; P. Musilek; E. Lozowski; P. Pytlak

    2011-01-01

    The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply...

  6. Seasonal variability of stream water quality response to storm events captured using high-frequency and multi-parameter data

    Fovet, O.; Humbert, G.; Dupas, R.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Gruau, G.; Jaffrezic, A.; Thelusma, G.; Faucheux, M.; Gilliet, N.; Hamon, Y.; Grimaldi, C.

    2018-04-01

    The response of stream chemistry to storm is of major interest for understanding the export of dissolved and particulate species from catchments. The related challenge is the identification of active hydrological flow paths during these events and of the sources of chemical elements for which these events are hot moments of exports. An original four-year data set that combines high frequency records of stream flow, turbidity, nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and piezometric levels was used to characterize storm responses in a headwater agricultural catchment. The data set was used to test to which extend the shallow groundwater was impacting the variability of storm responses. A total of 177 events were described using a set of quantitative and functional descriptors related to precipitation, stream and groundwater pre-event status and event dynamics, and to the relative dynamics between water quality parameters and flow via hysteresis indices. This approach led to identify different types of response for each water quality parameter which occurrence can be quantified and related to the seasonal functioning of the catchment. This study demonstrates that high-frequency records of water quality are precious tools to study/unique in their ability to emphasize the variability of catchment storm responses.

  7. [Geochemical characteristics and sources of atmospheric particulates in Shanghai during dust storm event].

    Qian, Peng; Zheng, Xiang-min; Zhou, Li-min

    2013-05-01

    Atmospheric particulates were sampled from three sampling sites of Putuo, Minhang and Qingpu Districts in Shanghai between Oct. , 2009 and Oct. , 2010. In addition, particulate samples were also collected from Nantong, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, and Beijing city where dust storm dust transported along during spring. Element compositions of atmospheric particulates were determined by XRF and ICP-MS. The concentrations of major and trace elements in atmospheric particulates from Putuo, Minhang and Qingpu Districts were similar, indicating their common source. The UCC standardization distribution map showed that the major element composition of dust storm samples was similar to that of loess in northwestern China, indicating that the dust storm dust was mainly derived from Western desert and partly from local area. The REE partition patterns of dust storm dusts among different cities along dust transport route were similar to each other, as well as to those of northern loess, which indicates that the dust storm samples may have the same material source as loess, which mainly comes from crust material. However, the REE partition patterns of non-dust storm particulates were different among the studied cities, and different from those of loess, which suggests that the non-dust storm samples may be mixed with non-crust source material, which is different from dust storm dust and loess. The major element composition and REE partition pattern are effective indicators for source tracing of dust storm dust.

  8. Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

    Kettle, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

  9. Information support for major public events

    2010-01-01

    The unique capabilities of the IAEA illicit trafficking database is used to provide information on and assesment of illicit trafficking and other unauthorized activities involving nuclear and other radioactive materials to national authorities in charge of nuclear security of major public events. The information communicated to state parties cooperating with IAEA is on incidences confirmed to the agency on illicit trafficking of nuclear and other radioactive materials and also incidences reported in open sources which have not been confirmed.

  10. Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

    Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

    2012-01-01

    The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

  11. Substorm activity during the main phase of magnetic storms induced by the CIR and ICME events

    Boroyev, R. N.; Vasiliev, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    In this work, the relation of high-latitude indices of geomagnetic activity (AE, Kp) with the rate of storm development and a solar wind electric field during the main phase of magnetic storm induced by the CIR and ICME events is investigated. 72 magnetic storms induced by CIR and ICME events have been selected. It is shown that for the CIR and ICME events the increase of average value of the Kp index (Kpaver) is observed with the growth of rate of storm development. The value of Kpaver index correlates with the magnitude of minimum value of Dst index (|Dstmin|) only for the ICME events. The analysis of average values of AE and Kp indices during the main phase of magnetic storm depending on the SW electric field has shown that for the CIR events, unlike the ICME events, the value of AEaver increases with the growth of average value of the electric field (Eswaver). The value of Kpaver correlates with the Eswaver only for the ICME events. The relation between geomagnetic indices and the maximum value of SW electric field (Eswmax) is weak. However, for the ICME events Kpaver correlates with Eswmax.

  12. Effects of Asian dust storm events on daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan

    Chen, Y.-S.; Sheen, P.-C.; Chen, E.-R.; Liu, Y.-K.; Wu, T.-N.; Yang, C.-Y.

    2004-01-01

    In spring, windblown dust storms originating in the deserts of Mongolia and China make their way to Taipei City. These occurrences are known as Asian dust storm events. The objective of this study was to assess the possible effects of Asian dust storms on the mortality of residents in Taipei, Taiwan, during the period from 1995 to 2000. We identified 39 dust storm episodes, which were classified as index days. Daily deaths on the index days were compared with deaths on the comparison days. We selected two comparison days for each index day, 7 days before the index day and 7 days after the index day. The strongest estimated effects of dust storms were increases of 7.66% in risk for respiratory disease 1 day after the event, 4.92% for total deaths 2 days following the dust storms and 2.59% for circulatory diseases 2 days following the dust storms. However, none of these effects were statistically significant. This study found greater specificity for associations with respiratory deaths, and this increases the likelihood that the association between dust events and daily mortality represents a causal relationship

  13. [Sickness absence associated with major life events].

    Markussen, Simen; Røgeberg, Ole

    2012-05-29

    Sickness absence in the Norwegian workplace doubled in the period 1993-2003. However, the extent to which the driving factors were medical or non-medical remains unclear, as does the extent to which the cause may be found in the composition of the workforce. A differences-in-differences regression model was used to estimate the added sickness absence associated with major life events such as separation, death of spouse and pregnancy in the period 1993-2005. The data were obtained from administrative registers covering the entire Norwegian population, and include all absence periods of 16 days' duration or more reported by a doctor's medical certificate. The primary outcome measures were incidence (the proportion of absentees in a given time window) and absence (the proportion of sick days in a given time window). The level of absence among employees exposed to the specified life events was compared to control groups matched for gender, age, education and income. In 1993, people in each of the three groups exposed to major life events had more frequent and longer periods of absence than people in the control groups. This added sickness absence increased between 1993 and 2005. The changes in added sickness absence were at times significant, particularly for pregnant women. While sickness absence among pregnant women in 1993 was 15.4 percentage points higher than in the control group, the difference had increased to 24.8 percentage points in 2005. We find it improbable for the increase in added sickness absence to be caused by changes in the medical impact of life events or alterations in the workforce composition. We believe the increase is caused by changing attitudes among the working population and in the medical profession towards sickness absence on grounds that are not strictly medical, combined with improved social acceptance and diagnosis of mental health issues, and/or a medicalisation of natural health variations (pregnancy) and emotional distress (grief).

  14. A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

    Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

  15. Characteristics of storms that contribute to extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula

    Trigo, Ricardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Ordoñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.

    2014-05-01

    Floods correspond to one of the most deadly natural disasters in the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. Quite often these floods are associated to intense low pressure systems with an Atlantic origin. In recent years a number of episodes have been evaluated on a case-by-case approach, with a clear focus on extreme events, thus lacking a systematic assessment. In this study we focus on the characteristics of storms for the extended winter season (October to March) that are responsible for the most extreme rainfall events over large areas of the Iberian Peninsula. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events during the extended winter is used based on the most comprehensive database of high resolution (0.2º latitude by 0.2º longitude) gridded daily precipitation dataset available for the Iberian Peninsula. The magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the total area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point (taking into account the daily normalised departure from climatology). Different precipitation rankings are studied considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (Duero, Ebro, Tagus, Minho, Guadiana and Guadalquivir). Using an objective cyclone detecting and tracking scheme [Trigo, 2006] the storm track and characteristics of the cyclones were obtained using the ERA-Interim reanalyses for the 1979-2008 period. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclone positions when the precipitation extremes occur will be analysed over the considered sub-domains (Iberia, Portugal, major river basins). In addition, we distinguish the different cyclone characteristics (lifetime, direction, minimum pressure, position, velocity, vorticity and radius) with significant impacts in precipitation over the different domains in the Iberian Peninsula. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa

  16. Using recent hurricanes and associated event layers to evaluate regional storm impacts on estuarine-wetland systems

    Smith, C. G.; Marot, M. E.; Osterman, L. E.; Adams, C. S.; Haller, C.; Jones, M.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are a major driver of change in coastal and estuarine environments. Heightened waves and sea level associated with tropical cyclones act to erode sediment from one environment and redistribute it to adjacent environments. The fate and transport of this redistributed material is of great importance to the long-term sediment budget, which in turns affects the vulnerability of these coastal systems. The spatial variance in both storm impacts and sediment redistribution is large. At the regional-scale, difference in storm impacts can often be attributed to natural variability in geologic parameters (sediment availability/erodibility), coastal geomorphology (including fetch, shoreline tortuosity, back-barrier versus estuarine shoreline, etc.), storm characteristics (intensity, duration, track/approach), and ecology (vegetation type, gradient, density). To assess storm characteristics and coastal geomorphology on a regional-scale, cores were collected from seven Juncus marshes located in coastal regions of Alabama and Mississippi (i.e., Mobile Bay, Bon Secour Bay, Mississippi Sound, and Grand Bay) expected to have been impacted by Hurricane Frederic (1979). All cores were sectioned and processed for water content, organic matter (loss-on-ignition), and select cores analyzed for foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotopes and bulk metals to aid in the identification of storm events. Excess lead-210 and cesium-137 were used to develop chronologies for the cores and evaluate mass accumulation rates and sedimentation rates. Temporal variations in accumulation rates of inorganic and organic sediments were compared with shoreline and areal change rates derived from historic aerial imagery to evaluate potential changes in sediment exchange prior to, during, and following the storm. A combined geospatial and geologic approach will improve our understanding of coastal change in estuarine marsh environments, as well help refine the influence of storms on regional

  17. Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

    Surkova, Galina V.; Arkhipkin, Victor S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961-2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century.

  18. Prediction of Major Vascular Events after Stroke

    Ovbiagele, Bruce; Goldstein, Larry B.; Amarenco, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Identifying patients with recent stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) at high risk of major vascular events (MVEs; stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death) may help optimize the intensity of secondary preventive interventions. We evaluated the relationships between...... the baseline Framingham Coronary Risk Score (FCRS) and a novel risk prediction model and with the occurrence of MVEs after stroke or TIA in subjects enrolled in the Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Level (SPARCL) trial. METHODS: Data from the 4731 subjects enrolled in the SPARCL study...... were analyzed. Hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox regression models were used to determine the risk of subsequent MVEs based on the FCRS predicting 20% or more 10-year coronary heart disease risk. The novel risk model was derived based on multivariable modeling with backward selection. Model discrimination...

  19. Chaos game representation of the D st index and prediction of geomagnetic storm events

    Yu, Z.G.; Anh, V.V.; Wanliss, J.A.; Watson, S.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a two-dimensional chaos game representation (CGR) for the D st index. The CGR provides an effective method to characterize the multifractality of the D st time series. The probability measure of this representation is then modeled as a recurrent iterated function system in fractal theory, which leads to an algorithm for prediction of a storm event. We present an analysis and modeling of the D st time series over the period 1963-2003. The numerical results obtained indicate that the method is useful in predicting storm events one day ahead

  20. Dust storm events over Delhi: verification of dust AOD forecasts with satellite and surface observations

    Singh, Aditi; Iyengar, Gopal R.; George, John P.

    2016-05-01

    Thar desert located in northwest part of India is considered as one of the major dust source. Dust storms originate in Thar desert during pre-monsoon season, affects large part of Indo-Gangetic plains. High dust loading causes the deterioration of the ambient air quality and degradation in visibility. Present study focuses on the identification of dust events and verification of the forecast of dust events over Delhi and western part of IG Plains, during the pre-monsoon season of 2015. Three dust events have been identified over Delhi during the study period. For all the selected days, Terra-MODIS AOD at 550 nm are found close to 1.0, while AURA-OMI AI shows high values. Dust AOD forecasts from NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) for the three selected dust events are verified against satellite (MODIS) and ground based observations (AERONET). Comparison of observed AODs at 550 nm from MODIS with NCUM predicted AODs reveals that NCUM is able to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of dust AOD, in these cases. Good correlation (~0.67) is obtained between the NCUM predicted dust AODs and location specific observations available from AERONET. Model under-predicted the AODs as compared to the AERONET observations. This may be mainly because the model account for only dust and no anthropogenic activities are considered. The results of the present study emphasize the requirement of more realistic representation of local dust emission in the model both of natural and anthropogenic origin, to improve the forecast of dust from NCUM during the dust events.

  1. Detection and monitoring of two dust storm events by multispectral modis images.

    Mehta P.S.; Kunte, P.D.

    of Oman, over Arabian Sea to the coast of Pakistan. The dust storm lasted over the Arabian Sea till 30th March. MODIS sensors on both Terra and Aqua Satellites captured images of both events. From the difference in emissive/transmissive nature...

  2. The Meteorology of Storms that Produce Narrow Bipolar Events

    Lang, Timothy; McCaul, Bill; Fuchs, Brody; Cummer, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Narrow Bipolar Event's (NBE) are compact ( 10 kW in VHF), and impulsive (approx 10 micro s) electrical discharges in thunderstorms, also known as compact intracloud discharges (CIDs). Can be either positive or negative polarity and have distinctive broadband waveform signatures sometimes confused for +CGs in the past by NLDN and other networks. NBEs are related to lightning but are likely optically "dark". As revealed by VHF sensors (both satellite and ground): (1) The most powerful lightning-­-related VHF sources observed (2) Tend to occur at the beginning of intracloud discharges (3) Difficult to estimate altitude properly due to receiver saturation.

  3. Characteristics and conditions of production of transient luminous events observed over a maritime storm

    Soula, S.; van der Velde, O.; Palmiéri, J.

    2010-01-01

    On the night of 15/16 November 2007, cameras in southern France detected 30 transient luminous events (TLEs) over a storm located in the Corsican region (France). Among these TLEs, 19 were sprites, 6 were halos, and 5 were elves. For 26 of them, a positive “parent” cloud-to-ground lightning (P...... in a sequence had much lower peak currents. Several triangulated sprites were found to be shifted from their P+CG flashes by about 10 to 50 km and preferentially downstream. The observations suggest that the P+CG flashes can initiate both sprites and other CG flashes in a storm....

  4. Water quality of storm runoff and comparison of procedures for estimating storm-runoff loads, volume, event-mean concentrations, and the mean load for a storm for selected properties and constituents for Colorado Springs, southeastern Colorado, 1992

    Von Guerard, Paul; Weiss, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires that municipalities that have a population of 100,000 or greater obtain National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits to characterize the quality of their storm runoff. In 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Springs City Engineering Division, began a study to characterize the water quality of storm runoff and to evaluate procedures for the estimation of storm-runoff loads, volume and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents. Precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality data were collected during 1992 at five sites in Colorado Springs. Thirty-five samples were collected, seven at each of the five sites. At each site, three samples were collected for permitting purposes; two of the samples were collected during rainfall runoff, and one sample was collected during snowmelt runoff. Four additional samples were collected at each site to obtain a large enough sample size to estimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents using linear-regression procedures developed using data from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program (NURP). Storm-water samples were analyzed for as many as 186 properties and constituents. The constituents measured include total-recoverable metals, vola-tile-organic compounds, acid-base/neutral organic compounds, and pesticides. Storm runoff sampled had large concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand. Chemical oxygen demand ranged from 100 to 830 milligrams per liter, and 5.-day biochemical oxygen demand ranged from 14 to 260 milligrams per liter. Total-organic carbon concentrations ranged from 18 to 240 milligrams per liter. The total-recoverable metals lead and zinc had the largest concentrations of the total-recoverable metals analyzed. Concentrations of lead ranged from 23 to 350 micrograms per liter, and concentrations of zinc ranged from 110

  5. IDF relationships using bivariate copula for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia

    Ariff, N. M.; Jemain, A. A.; Ibrahim, K.; Wan Zin, W. Z.

    2012-11-01

    SummaryIntensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are used in many hydrologic designs for the purpose of water managements and flood preventions. The IDF curves available in Malaysia are those obtained from univariate analysis approach which only considers the intensity of rainfalls at fixed time intervals. As several rainfall variables are correlated with each other such as intensity and duration, this paper aims to derive IDF points for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia by means of bivariate frequency analysis. This is achieved through utilizing the relationship between storm intensities and durations using the copula method. Four types of copulas; namely the Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Frank, Gaussian and Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copulas are considered because the correlation between storm intensity, I, and duration, D, are negative and these copulas are appropriate when the relationship between the variables are negative. The correlations are attained by means of Kendall's τ estimation. The analysis was performed on twenty rainfall stations with hourly data across Peninsular Malaysia. Using Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) for testing goodness-of-fit, both Frank and Gaussian copulas are found to be suitable to represent the relationship between I and D. The IDF points found by the copula method are compared to the IDF curves yielded based on the typical IDF empirical formula of the univariate approach. This study indicates that storm intensities obtained from both methods are in agreement with each other for any given storm duration and for various return periods.

  6. Water quality during storm events from two constructed wetlands receiving mine drainage

    Stark, L.R.; Brooks, R.P.; Williams, F.M.; Stevens, S.E. Jr.; Davis, L.K.

    1994-01-01

    Flow rates, pH, iron concentration, and manganese concentration were measured during several storm event at two constructed wetlands receiving mine water. During a substantial rain event, flow rates at both the wetland outlets surpassed flow rates at the wetland inlets, reflecting incident rainfall and differences in wetland area at the two sites. A significant positive correlation existed between local rainfall and outflow rates at the larger wetland, but not between rainfall and inflow rates. During storm events, outlet pH, relative to inlet pH, was slightly elevated at the larger wetland, and depressed at the smaller wetland. However, over the course of one year, rainfall was uncorrelated to outlet pH in the larger wetland. A substantial rain event at the smaller wetland resulted in a temporary elevation in outlet iron concentrations, with treatment efficiency reduced to near zero. However, in the larger wetland, outlet iron concentrations were not significantly affected by storm events. 14 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  7. Dynamics of dissolved organic matter during four storm events in two forest streams: source, export, and implications for harmful disinfection byproduct formation.

    Yang, Liyang; Hur, Jin; Lee, Sonmin; Chang, Soon-Woong; Shin, Hyun-Sang

    2015-06-01

    Dynamics of river dissolved organic matter (DOM) during storm events have profound influences on the downstream aquatic ecosystem and drinking water safety. This study investigated temporal variations in DOM during four storm events in two forest headwater streams (the EH and JH brooks, South Korea) and the impacts on the disinfection byproducts (DBPs) formation potential. The within-event variations of most DOM quantity parameters were similar to the flow rate in the EH but not in the larger JH brook. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) showed clockwise and counterclockwise hysteresis with the flow rate in the EH and JH brooks, respectively, indicating the importance of both flow path and DOM source pool size in determining the effects of storm events. The stream DOM became less aromatic/humified from the first to the last event in both brooks, probably due to the increasing fresh plant pool and the decreasing leaf litter pool during the course of rainy season. The DOC export during each event increased 1.3-2.7- and 1.1-7.0-fold by stormflows in the EH and JH brooks, respectively. The leaf litter and soil together was the major DOM source, particularly during early events. The enhanced DOM export probably increases the risks of DBPs formation in disinfection, as indicated by a strong correlation observed between DOC and trihalomethanes formation potential (THMFP). High correlations between two humic-like fluorescent components and THMFP further suggested the potential of assessing THMFP with in situ fluorescence sensors during storms.

  8. Polarimetric signatures indicative of severe storm development - the Pentecost event 2014

    Troemel, Silke; Diederich, Malte; Evaristo, Raquel; Ryzhkov, Alexander; Simmer, Clemens

    2015-04-01

    The 2014 Pentecost weekend storms in Europe were a series of severe supercell storms which followed a heatwave in early June 2014, resulting from a Spanish plume synoptic weather pattern. Outbreaks of severe weather were reported from these storm developments with the worst damages occurring over the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia on 9 June, where the storm was described as one of the most violent in decades by the German weather service (DWD). During this event six fatalities, wind gusts up to 150km/h, hail and a flash flood in Düsseldorf has been reported. Monitoring and analysis of high-impact weather using weather radars of shorter wavelength (X- and C-bands) requires special methods, i.e. anomalous high attenuation and differential attenuation due to very large raindrops originating from melting large hail has to be investigated and corrected. During the Pentecost event a record breaking ZDR bias of up to -25dB has been observed. Different strategies for reliable attenuation correction and rainfall estimation for this extreme event are explored and will be presented. A national 3D composite of polarimetric moments covering Germany with 1km horizontal, 250m vertical, and 5 minutes temporal resolution has been generated. 10 C-band radars from the DWD radar network, recently upgraded to polarimetry, have been included. Meanie3D, a 3D scale space tracking algorithm, is applied to the composite to investigate the magnitudes and temporal development of the 3 fundamental steps of a storms lifecycle: 1) high values of differential reflectivity ZDR aloft first indicate a developing cell, 2) ZDR-columns (these are vertical columns of high differential reflectivity) then indicate the updraft zone of a cell in the mature state. The vertical extent of the ZDR-column is thus a measure of the strength of the updraft and for the ensuing rainfall enhancement. 3) The very first big drops reach the surface before the most intense rain begins. This is reflected by the

  9. Sediment transport and deposition during extreme sea storm events at the Salerno Bay (Tyrrhenian Sea: comparison of field data with numerical model results

    F. Budillon

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Seismic stratigraphy and core litho-stratigraphy in the Salerno Bay inner shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea reveal significant storm deposition episodes over the last 1 ky. Three major events are preserved as decimetre thick silt/sand layers bounded at their base by erosional surfaces and sealed in the muddy marine sequences between 25 and 60 m of depth. Geochronology and chrono-stratigraphy on core sediment point towards a recurrence of major sea storms between 0.1 and 0.3 ky and put the last significant event in the 19th century, when no local meteorological time series is available. A modelling of extreme sea-storms with a return period of about 0.1 ky is here proposed based on historical hindcast and aims at explaining the occurrence of such unusual deep and thick sand deposits in the northern sector of the bay. Results highlight the vulnerability of the northern coast of the Salerno Bay to the south western sea storms which can drive waves up to about 8 m high and wave period of about 13 s. With these conditions an intense combined flow current is formed and might account for winnowing fine sand down to the depth of 40 m at least. The numerical model thus confirms a possible sand transport in the bottom boundary layer due to wave-current interaction and could corroborate the interpretation of the most recent sand layers, included in the cores, as being generated under extreme sea storm conditions.

  10. The mobilization of hazardous elements after a tropical storm event in a polluted estuary

    Rodriguez-Iruretagoiena, Azibar, E-mail: azibar.rodriguez@ehu.es [Department of Analytical Chemistry, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 664, 48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Fdez Ortiz de Vallejuelo, Silvia; Diego, Alberto de [Department of Analytical Chemistry, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 664, 48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Leão, Felipe B. de; Medeiros, Diego de; Oliveira, Marcos L.S.; Tafarel, Silvio R. [Environmental Science and Nanotechnology Department, Institute of Environmental Research and Human Development — IPADH, Capivari de Baixo, Santa Catarina (Brazil); Arana, Gorka; Madariaga, Juan Manuel [Department of Analytical Chemistry, University of the Basque Country, P.O. Box 664, 48080 Bilbao, Basque Country (Spain); Silva, Luis F.O., E-mail: felipeqma@hotmail.com [Environmental Science and Nanotechnology Department, Institute of Environmental Research and Human Development — IPADH, Capivari de Baixo, Santa Catarina (Brazil)

    2016-09-15

    The Tubarão River (Santa Catarina, Brazil) is affected by hazardous elements (HEs) pollution from abandoned coal mines, agricultural activities, urban discharges, industrial and leisure zones, etc. In order to study the distribution and sources of HEs contamination in a polluted estuary after a tropical storm, waters and surface sediments were collected from 15 sampling sites along the Tubarão River. The concentration of 24 elements (Ag, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Sn, Sr, Ti, Tl, V, W, and Zn) were measured by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and the mineralogical composition of the sediments by Raman spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The metal concentrations in water and sediment showed wide spatial variation due to the variability in water discharges and anthropogenic inputs after a storm. In general, higher metal concentration in water and lower in sediments were found upstream (closer to coal mining). Downstream sampling sites and the Oratorio River sampling site (one of the eight tributaries of the estuary) showed the highest values in sediment samples. Normalized and Weighed Average Concentrations (NWAC) were calculated, which allow us to identify, in a very simple way, the sampling sites of higher concern (hotspots of contamination) in the studied area. NWAC suggested that the strong rainfall events could affect to the metal distribution in sediments. The results of this study were compared with a previous study in the same area during dry season by Principal Component Analysis (PCA), showing changes in environmental pollution of the sediment after a strong storm event. - Highlights: • The highest water HEs concentrations were identified in the sampling sites closest to the coal mines. • The presence of gypsum downstream is due to the remobilisation of upstream sediments by storm flow. • The HEs composition of the Tubarao River sediments changes due to strong rainfall events.

  11. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

    J. Hosek

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

    The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

  12. Concentration-Discharge Responses to Storm Events in Coastal California Watersheds

    Aguilera, Rosana; Melack, John M.

    2018-01-01

    Storm events in montane catchments are the main cause of mobilization of solutes and particulates into and within stream channels in coastal California. Nonlinear behavior of nutrients and suspended sediments during storms is evident in the hysteresis that arises in concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships. We examined patterns in the C-Q hysteresis of nutrients (NO3-, NH4+, DON, and PO43-) and total suspended solids (TSS) during storms across 10 sites and water years 2002-2015 by quantifying the slope of the C-Q relationship and the rotational pattern of the hysteresis loop. We observed several hysteresis types in the ˜400 storms included in our study. Concentrations of constituents associated with sediment transport (PO43- and TSS) peaked during high flows. Conversely, nitrogen species had hysteretic responses such as dilution with clockwise rotation in urban sites and enrichment with anticlockwise rotation in undeveloped sites. The wide range of C-Q responses that occurred among sites and seasons reflected the variable hydrological and biogeochemical characteristics of catchments and storms. Responses for nitrate in nested catchments differed in slope and rotation of C-Q hysteresis. Upland undeveloped and lowland urban sites had anticlockwise rotation at the onset of the rainy season following a dry year, which implied a delay in the transport of this solute to the streams. Slopes by the middle of the rainy season showed that the urban site switched from dilution to enrichment, and then again to dilution with clockwise rotation at the end of the season, which implied high initial concentrations and proximal sources.

  13. Water quantity and quality response of a green roof to storm events: Experimental and monitoring observations.

    Carpenter, Corey M G; Todorov, Dimitar; Driscoll, Charles T; Montesdeoca, Mario

    2016-11-01

    Syracuse, New York is working under a court-ordered agreement to limit combined sewer overflows (CSO) to local surface waters. Green infrastructure technologies, including green roofs, are being implemented as part of a CSO abatement strategy and to develop co-benefits of diminished stormwater runoff, including decreased loading of contaminants to the wastewater system and surface waters. The objective of this study was to examine the quantity and quality of discharge associated with precipitation events over an annual cycle from a green roof in Syracuse, NY and to compare measurements from this monitoring program with results from a roof irrigation experiment. Wet deposition, roof drainage, and water quality were measured for 87 storm events during an approximately 12 month period over 2011-2012. Water and nutrient (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and dissolved organic carbon) mass balances were conducted on an event basis to evaluate retention annually and during the growing and non-growing seasons. These results are compared with a hydrological manipulation experiment, which comprised of artificially watering of the roof. Loadings of nutrients were calculated for experimental and actual storms using the concentration of nutrients and the flow data of water discharging the roof. The green roof was effective in retaining precipitation quantity from storm events (mean percent retention 96.8%, SD = 2.7%, n = 87), although the relative fraction of water retained decreased with increases in the size of the event. There was no difference in water retention of the green roof for the growing and non-growing seasons. Drainage waters exhibited high concentration of nutrients during the warm temperature growing season, particularly total nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon. Overall, nutrient losses were low because of the strong retention of water. However, there was marked variation in the retention of nutrients by season due to variations in concentrations in roof

  14. ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

    Albano, Christine M.; Cox, Dale A.; Dettinger, Michael; Shaller, Kevin; Welborn, Toby L.; McCarthy, Maureen

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada.Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency

  15. Digoxin Is Associated With Increased Shock Events and Electrical Storms in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators.

    Mina, George S; Acharya, Madan; Shepherd, Taylor; Gobrial, George; Tekeste, Michael; Watti, Hussam; Bhandari, Ruchi; Saini, Aditya; Reddy, Pratap; Dominic, Paari

    2018-03-01

    Recently, digoxin use has been found to associate with higher mortality. Yet, potential mechanisms by which digoxin use increases mortality remain unclear. Increased arrhythmogenicity from digoxin use is one possibility. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the relation between digoxin and shock events in patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs). We performed a retrospective chart review of all patients with ICDs and at least 1 device interrogation at our institution between January 1, 2012, and January 1, 2015. We aimed to cover 1 year of interrogation period. Patients with heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or both were included in the analysis. Patients were divided into 2 groups based on digoxin use, defined as use of digoxin for any period of time during ICD interrogation period. Incidence of ICD shock events and electrical storms and hospitalizations were compared between the 2 groups. The study included 202 patients. Of those, 55 patients were on digoxin and 147 were not on digoxin. Patients on digoxin were more likely to receive ICD shocks (odds ratio [OR] = 2.5, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.01-6.18, P = .04) and have increased risk of electrical storms ( P = .02). Moreover, total hospitalizations were higher in digoxin users ( P = .02). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that digoxin use was an independent predictor of shock events (OR = 4.07, 95% CI = 1.43-11.58, P = .009). Digoxin is associated with increased shock events and electrical storms in patients with ICDs; however, large randomized controlled studies are needed to confirm our findings.

  16. Academic search in response to major scientific events

    Li, X.; de Rijke, M.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we look at the search behavior of users of an academic search engine and in particular, their query patterns following the occurrence of major scientific events. We select Nobel Prize announcements as major scientific events and observe how academic searchers behave in response to

  17. StoRMon: an event log analyzer for Grid Storage Element based on StoRM

    Zappi, Riccardo; Dal Pra, Stefano; Dibenedetto, Michele; Ronchieri, Elisabetta

    2011-01-01

    Managing a collaborative production Grid infrastructure requires to identify and handle every issue, which might arise, in a timely manner. Currently, the most complex problem of the data Grid infrastructure relates to the data management because of its distributed nature. To ensure that problems are quickly addressed and solved, each site should contribute to the solution providing any useful information about services that run in its administrative domain. Often Grid sites' administrators to be effective must collect, organize and examine the scattered logs events that are produced from every service and component of the Storage Element. This paper focuses on the problem of gathering the events logs on a Grid Storage Element and describes the design of a new service, called StoRMon. StoRMon will be able to collect, archive, analyze and report on events logs produced by each service of Storage Element during the execution of its tasks. The data and the processed information will be available to the site administrators by using a single contact-point to easily identify security incidents, fraudulent activity, and the operational issues mainly. The new service is applied to a Grid Storage Element characterized by StoRM, GridFTP and YAMSS, and collects the usage data of StoRM, transferring and hierarchical storage services.

  18. N : P Stoichiometry in a Forested Runoff during Storm Events: Comparisons with Regions and Vegetation Types

    Lanlan Guo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen and phosphorus are considered the most important limiting elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. however, very few studies have focused on which is from forested streams, a bridge between these two systems. To fill this gap, we examined the concentrations of dissolved N and P in storm waters from forested watersheds of five regions in Japan, to characterize nutrient limitation and its potential controlling factors. First, dissolved N and P concentrations and the N : P ratio on forested streams were higher during storm events relative to baseflow conditions. Second, significantly higher dissolved inorganic N concentrations were found in storm waters from evergreen coniferous forest streams than those from deciduous broadleaf forest streams in Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and with the exception of Tokyo. Finally, almost all the N : P ratios in the storm water were generally higher than 34, implying that the storm water should be P-limited, especially for Tokyo.

  19. N : P stoichiometry in a forested runoff during storm events: comparisons with regions and vegetation types.

    Guo, Lanlan; Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Fukushima, Takehiko

    2012-01-01

    Nitrogen and phosphorus are considered the most important limiting elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. however, very few studies have focused on which is from forested streams, a bridge between these two systems. To fill this gap, we examined the concentrations of dissolved N and P in storm waters from forested watersheds of five regions in Japan, to characterize nutrient limitation and its potential controlling factors. First, dissolved N and P concentrations and the N : P ratio on forested streams were higher during storm events relative to baseflow conditions. Second, significantly higher dissolved inorganic N concentrations were found in storm waters from evergreen coniferous forest streams than those from deciduous broadleaf forest streams in Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and with the exception of Tokyo. Finally, almost all the N : P ratios in the storm water were generally higher than 34, implying that the storm water should be P-limited, especially for Tokyo.

  20. SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2012 JULY 23 EXTREME SOLAR STORM

    Zhu, Bei; Liu, Ying D.; Hu, Huidong; Wang, Rui; Yang, Zhongwei [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Luhmann, Janet G., E-mail: liuxying@spaceweather.ac.cn [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2016-08-20

    We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 au at STEREO A , was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as the Advanced Composition Explorer and SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory , suggesting a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 au. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements, we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. Examination of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity, and spectra also gives important clues for particle acceleration, transport, and distribution.

  1. Carcinogenic ptaquiloside in stream water at base flow and during storm events

    Strobel, Bjarne W.; Clauson-Kaas, Frederik; Hansen, Hans Chr. Bruun

    2017-01-01

    identified, of which the compound ptaquiloside (PTA) is the most abundant. Ptaquiloside has been shown to be highly water soluble, leachable from bracken fronds and litter, and present in the soil below bracken stands. During storm events throughfall from the bracken canopy was collected as well. Stream...... water samples were taken as grab samples, while throughfall accumulated in glass jars set out below the canopy. Field blanks and fortified lab controls were included to ensure reliability of the analysis. Ptaquiloside concentrations were determined using LC-MS/MS after a clean-up using solid phase...... extraction. Results showed that PTA levels in the stream were highly dependent on precipitation, and was rising considerably during rain events, peaking at 2.28 μg/L, before quickly (conservation...

  2. Deciphering storm-event runoff behavior in a coastal plain watershed using chemical and physical hydrograph separation techniques

    Timothy Callahan; Austin E. Morrison

    2016-01-01

    Interpreting storm-event runoff in coastal plain watersheds is challenging because of the space- and time-variable nature of different sources that contribute to stream flow. These flow vectors and the magnitude of water flux is dependent on the pre-storm soil moisture (as estimated from depth to water table) in the lower coastal plain (LCP) region.

  3. Evaluation of storm event inputs on levels of gross primary production and respiration in a drinking water reservoir

    Samal, Nihar; Stæhr, Peter A.; Pierson, Donald C.

    events using vertical profiles of temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity and chlorophyll automatically collected at 6 hour intervals in West basin of Ashokan Reservoir, which is a part of the New York City drinking water supply. Using data from before, during and after storm events, we examine how...

  4. Pediatric emergency department census during major sporting events.

    Kim, Tommy Y; Barcega, Besh B; Denmark, T Kent

    2012-11-01

    Our study attempted to evaluate the effects of major sporting events on the census of a pediatric emergency department (ED) in the United States specifically related to the National Football League Super Bowl, National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals, and Major League Baseball World Series. We performed a retrospective data analysis of our pediatric ED census on the number of visits during major sporting events over a 5-year period. Data during the same period 1 week after the major sporting event were collected for comparison as the control. We evaluated the medians of 2-hour increments around the event start time. Subgroup analysis was performed for games involving the local sporting teams. Our results showed no significant difference in ED census during the sporting events, except in the post 6 to 8 hours of the NBA finals. Subgroup analysis of the Los Angeles Lakers showed the same significant findings in the post 6 to 8 hours of the NBA finals. No major difference in pediatric ED census is observed during the most major sporting events in the United States.

  5. Mars atmospheric phenomena during major dust storms, as measured at surface

    Ryan, J.A.; Henry, R.M.

    1979-01-01

    Meteorological instrumentation aboard the Viking Mars Landers measures wind, temperature, and pressure. Two global dust storms occurred during northern autumn and winter, observed both by the orbiters and by the landers. The meteorological data from the landers has been analyzed for the period just before first storm arrival to just after second storm arrival, with the objectives being definition of meteorological phenomena during the storm period, determination of those associated with storm and dust arrival, and evaluation of effects on synoptic conditions and the general circulation. Times of dust arrival over the sites could be defined fairly closely from optical and pressure (solar tide) data, and dust arrival was also accompanied by changes in diurnal temperature range, temperature maxima, and temperature minima. The arrivals of the storms at VL-1 were accompanied by significant increase in wind speed and pressure. No such changes were observed at VL-2. It is possible that surface material could have been raised locally at VL-1. Throughout the period except following the second dust storm synoptic picture at VL-2 was one of eastward moving cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. These disappeared following the second storm, a phenomenon which may be related to the storm

  6. Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

  7. Changes in Appearance in the Presence of Major Stress Events

    Megan E. Stitz

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between experiencing major stress events (MSEs and changes in appearance (CAs was studied in a sample of 128 participants. All participants completed the Major Stress Event and Changes in Appearance Inventory. Results indicated a significant correlation between experiencing MSEs and considered or actual CAs (r = .50 p < .01. Scores on the Changes in Appearance Inventory were significantly higher in groups with moderate to high scores on the Major Stress Event scale. This relationship between MSEs and CAs was affected by age but not gender. These results suggest that stressful life events may prompt body image dissatisfaction and underlie motivations for changes in body appearance to promote self-image. Successive or dramatic appearance changes may be an important signal of stressful experiences.

  8. A semi-analytical foreshock model for energetic storm particle events inside 1 AU

    Vainio Rami

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We have constructed a semi-analytical model of the energetic-ion foreshock of a CME-driven coronal/interplanetary shock wave responsible for the acceleration of large solar energetic particle (SEP events. The model is based on the analytical model of diffusive shock acceleration of Bell (1978, appended with a temporal dependence of the cut-off momentum of the energetic particles accelerated at the shock, derived from the theory. Parameters of the model are re-calibrated using a fully time-dependent self-consistent simulation model of the coupled particle acceleration and Alfvén-wave generation upstream of the shock. Our results show that analytical estimates of the cut-off energy resulting from the simplified theory and frequently used in SEP modelling are overestimating the cut-off momentum at the shock by one order magnitude. We show also that the cut-off momentum observed remotely far upstream of the shock (e.g., at 1 AU can be used to infer the properties of the foreshock and the resulting energetic storm particle (ESP event, when the shock is still at small distances from the Sun, unaccessible to the in-situ observations. Our results can be used in ESP event modelling for future missions to the inner heliosphere, like the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus as well as in developing acceleration models for SEP events in the solar corona.

  9. Major life events and development of major depression in Parkinson's disease patients

    Rod, Naja Hulvej; Bordelon, Y; Thompson, A

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Non-motor symptoms including depression are important features of Parkinson's disease (PD). We aim to address the relationship between major life events and depression amongst PD patients free of depressive symptoms at baseline. METHODS: New-onset PD patients from California...... were recruited in 2001-2007 and followed up for 3-4 years. The participants (n = 221) were examined by neurologists and responded to comprehensive interviews that included major life events, social support, and coping measures from validated scales. Major depression was assessed using the Structured...... Clinical Interview for the DSM-IV depression module (SCID). RESULTS: More than half of all patients had experienced major life events since diagnosed with PD, and 22 patients developed a major depression. The number of life events was associated with risk of depression in an exposure-dependent manner...

  10. Major life events and risk of Parkinson's disease

    Rod, Naja Hulvej; Hansen, Johnni; Schernhammer, Eva

    2010-01-01

    major life events are risk factors for Parkinson's disease. Between 1986 and 2006, we identified 13,695 patients with a (PD) primary diagnosis of PD in the Danish National Hospital Register. Each case was frequency matched by age and gender to five population controls. Information on major life events...... before onset of PD was ascertained from national registries. Among men, number of life events was associated with risk of Parkinson's disease in an inverse dose-response manner (P ....34-0.99). Life events were not associated with PD in women. In contrast, a higher risk of PD was observed among women who had never been married (1.16; 1.04-1.29) and among men (1.47; 1.18-1.82) and women (1.30; 1.05-1.61) who have never been employees. The lower risk of Parkinson's disease among men who had...

  11. Simultaneous response of NmF2 and GPS-TEC to storm events at Ilorin

    Joshua, B. W.; Adeniyi, J. O.; Oladipo, O. A.; Doherty, P. H.; Adimula, I. A.; Olawepo, A. O.; Adebiyi, S. J.

    2018-06-01

    A comparative study of both TEC and NmF2 variations during quiet and disturbed conditions has been investigated using simultaneous measurements from dual frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver and a DPS-4 Digisonde co-located at Ilorin (Geog. Lat. 8.50°N, Long. 4.50°E, dip. - 7.9°). The results of the quiet time variations of the two parameters show some similarities as well as differences in their structures. The values of both parameters generally increase during the sunrise period attaining a peak around the noon and then decaying towards the night time. The onset time of the sunrise growth is observed to be earlier in TEC than in NmF2. The rate of decay of TEC was observed to be faster than that of the NmF2 in most cases. Also, the noon 'bite-outs', leading to the formation of pre-noon and post-noon peaks, are prominent in the NmF2 structure and was hardly noticed in TEC. Results of the variations of both TEC and NmF2 during the 5 April, 10 May and 3 August 2010 geomagnetic storm events showed a simultaneous deviations of both parameters from the quiet time behavior. The magnitude of the deviations is however most pronounced in NmF2 structure than in TEC. We also found that the enhancement observed in the two parameters during the storm events generally corresponds to decrease in hmF2.

  12. Major life events and risk of alcohol use disorders

    Just-Østergaard, Emilie; Mortensen, Erik L.; Flensborg-Madsen, Trine

    2018-01-01

    , household income, cohabitation status and psychiatric comorbidity. Findings: Serious family conflicts in childhood [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00, 1.83] and serious economic problems in adult life (HR = 2.22; 95% CI = 1.64, 3.01) were associated significantly with increased......Aims: To estimate associations of individual major life events as well as accumulated major life events in childhood, adult private life and adult work life with risk of alcohol use disorders (AUD). Design: Prospective cohort study with baseline examination in 1991–93 and linkage to national...

  13. Increasing Flood Risk due to Run-off Outflow near Estuarine City during Storm Event

    Son, S.; Lee, C.; Do, K.; Jung, T.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical cyclone easily causes inundation damage to low-lying coastal area and the damage may be amplified due to tide motion, sea-level rise, riverine discharges. Specifically, typhoons are accompanied by intensive rainfall, which will of course raise the river water level and thus enhance the flooding damages. If the tidal cycle coincides the high water, flooding will be even aggravated. In the present study, we simulated storm surge motions at the coastal area considering combined effects of tidal and river discharge with aim to improve the accuracy of flooding prediction. The quasi 3-dimension ocean circulation model, Delf3D was used which solves the unsteady shallow water equation in the 2D and 3D. Since Delft3D is much applicable to accommodate the indirect flooding factors such as riverine discharge and short waves, outer-coupled modeling system was established to account for combined tide-surge-riverine discharge effects. In such integrated system, 11 tidal constituents were input as open boundary condition using TPXO 7.2 model, while the water level per unit time was preliminary calculated by HEC-HMS model and input as the upstream boundary conditions for river inside the domain. Typhoon MAEMI which attacked Masan city located at southern coast of South Korea and caused severe inundation damages in 2003 was selected for the study event. Basic information for typhoon such as path, wind speed, atmospheric pressure every 3 hours was provided by the Korea Meteorological Agency and was adopted. The simulation was implemented with tide and storm surge boundary conditions focusing on the target area, Masan, while the additional consideration on the discharge of the river inside the domain was also made. Simulated water level at the fixed location was compared to the observation for its verification and the extent of inundation areas of Masan were compared between observed and calculated. The marginal contribution of riverine discharge on the flooding area

  14. Hydrodynamic Based Decision Making Framework for Impact Assessment of Extreme Storm Events on Coastal Communities

    Nazari, R.; Miller, K.; Hurler, C.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal and inland flooding has been a problematic occurrence, specifically over the past century. Global warming has caused an 8 inch sea level rise since 1990, which made the coastal flood zone wider, deeper and more damaging. Additionally, riverine flooding is extremely damaging to the country's substructure and economy as well which causes river banks to overflow, inundating low-lying areas. New Jersey and New York are two areas at severe risk for flood hazard, sea level rise, land depletion and economic loss which are the main study area of this work. A decision making framework is being built to help mitigate the impacts of the environmental and economical dangers of storm surges, sea level rise, flashfloods and inland flooding. With vigorous research and the use of innovative hydrologic modeling software, this tool can be built and utilized to form resiliency for coastal communities. This will allow the individuals living in a coastal community to understand the details of climatic hazards in their area and risks associated to their communities. This tool will also suggest the best solution for the problem each community faces. Atlantic City and New York City has been modeled and compared using potential storm events and the outcomes have been analyzed. The tool offers all the possible solutions for the type of flooding that occurs. Green infrastructure such as rain gardens, detention basins and green roofs can be used as small scale solutions. Greater scale solutions such as removable flood barriers, concrete walls and height adjustable walls will also be displayed if that poses as the best solution. The results and benefits from the simulation and modeling techniques, will allow coastal communities to choose the most appropriate method for building a long lasting and sustainable resilience plan in the future.

  15. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason P.; Kucera, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite

  16. Observations and global numerical modelling of the St. Patrick's Day 2015 geomagnetic storm event

    Foerster, M.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Doornbos, E.; Astafieva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.

    2017-12-01

    With a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on St. Patrick's day 2015 started the most severe geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24. It appeared as a two-stage geomagnetic storm with a minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT. In the response to the storm commencement in the first activation, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second phase commencing around 12:30 UT lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe with hemispherical different ionospheric storm reactions in different longitudinal ranges. Swarm-C observations of the neutral mass density variation along the orbital path as well as Langmuir probe plasma and magnetometer measurements of all three Swarm satellites and global TEC records are used for physical interpretations and modelling of the positive/negative storm scenario. These observations pose a challenge for the global numerical modelling of thermosphere-ionosphere storm processes as the storm, which occurred around spring equinox, obviously signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. Numerical simulation trials using the Potsdam version of the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM-P) are presented to explain these peculiar M-I-T storm processes.

  17. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    Deng, Liping

    2015-05-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

  18. Characterizing Storm Event Dynamics of a Forested Watershed in the Lower Atlantic Coastal Plain, South Carolina USA

    Latorre Torres, I. B.; Amatya, D. M.; Callahan, T. J.; Levine, N. S.

    2007-12-01

    Hydrology research in the Southeast U.S. has primarily focused on upland mountainous areas; however, much less is known about hydrological processes in Lower Coastal Plain (LCP) watersheds. Such watersheds are difficult to characterize due to shallow water table conditions, low topographic gradient, complex surface- subsurface water interaction, and lack of detailed soil information. Although opportunities to conduct long term monitoring in relatively undeveloped watersheds are often limited, stream flow and rainfall in the Turkey Creek watershed (third-order watershed, about 7200 ha in the Francis Marion National Forest near Charleston, SC) have been monitored since 1964. In this study, event runoff-rainfall ratios have been determined for 51 storm events using historical data from 1964-1973. One of our objectives was to characterize relationships between seasonal event rainfall and storm outflow in this watershed. To this end, observed storm event data were compared with values predicted by established hydrological methods such as the Soil Conservation Service runoff curve number (SCS-CN) and the rational method integrated within a Geographical Information System (GIS), to estimate total event runoff and peak discharge, respectively. Available 1:15000 scale aerial images were digitized to obtain land uses, which were used with the SCS soil hydrologic groups to obtain the runoff coefficients (C) for the rational method and the CN values for the SCS-CN method. These methods are being tested with historical storm event responses in the Turkey Creek watershed scale, and then will be used to predict event runoff in Quinby Creek, an ungauged third-order watershed (8700 ha) adjacent to Turkey Creek. Successful testing with refinement of parameters in the rational method and SCS-CN method, both designed for small urban and agricultural dominated watersheds, may allow widespread application of these methods for studying the event rainfall-runoff dynamics for similar

  19. Space weather effects on radio propagation: study of the CEDAR, GEM and ISTP storm events

    D. V. Blagoveshchensky

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of 14 geomagnetic storms from a list of CEDAR, GEM and ISTP storms, that occurred during 1997–1999, on radio propagation conditions has been investigated. The propagation conditions were estimated through variations of the MOF and LOF (the maximum and lowest operation frequencies on three high-latitude HF radio paths in north-west Russia. Geophysical data of Dst, Bz, AE as well as some riometer data from Sodankyla observatory, Finland, were used for the analysis. It was shown that the storm impact on the ionosphere and radio propagation for each storm has an individual character. Nevertheless, there are common patterns in variation of the propagation parameters for all storms. Thus, the frequency range Δ=MOF−LOF increases several hours before a storm, then it narrows sharply during the storm, and expands again several hours after the end of the storm. This regular behaviour should be useful for the HF radio propagation predictions and frequency management at high latitudes. On the trans-auroral radio path, the time interval when the signal is lost through a storm (tdes depends on the local time. For the day-time storms an average value tdes is 6 h, but for night storms tdes is only 2 h. The ionization increase in the F2 layer before storm onset is 3.5 h during the day-time and 2.4 h at night. Mechanisms to explain the observed variations are discussed including some novel possibilities involving energy input through the cusp.

  20. Space weather effects on radio propagation: study of the CEDAR, GEM and ISTP storm events

    D. V. Blagoveshchensky

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of 14 geomagnetic storms from a list of CEDAR, GEM and ISTP storms, that occurred during 1997–1999, on radio propagation conditions has been investigated. The propagation conditions were estimated through variations of the MOF and LOF (the maximum and lowest operation frequencies on three high-latitude HF radio paths in north-west Russia. Geophysical data of Dst, Bz, AE as well as some riometer data from Sodankyla observatory, Finland, were used for the analysis. It was shown that the storm impact on the ionosphere and radio propagation for each storm has an individual character. Nevertheless, there are common patterns in variation of the propagation parameters for all storms. Thus, the frequency range Δ=MOF−LOF increases several hours before a storm, then it narrows sharply during the storm, and expands again several hours after the end of the storm. This regular behaviour should be useful for the HF radio propagation predictions and frequency management at high latitudes. On the trans-auroral radio path, the time interval when the signal is lost through a storm (tdes depends on the local time. For the day-time storms an average value tdes is 6 h, but for night storms tdes is only 2 h. The ionization increase in the F2 layer before storm onset is 3.5 h during the day-time and 2.4 h at night. Mechanisms to explain the observed variations are discussed including some novel possibilities involving energy input through the cusp.

  1. Influence of particulates on phosphorus loading exported from farm drainage during a storm event in the Everglades Agricultural Area

    Bhadha, J. H.; Lang, T. A.; Daroub, S. H.

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of particulates on P loading captured during a single storm event. The Everglades Agricultural Area of Florida comprises 280,000 hectares of organic soil farmland artificially drained by ditches, canals and pumps. Phosphorus (P)-enriched suspended particulates in canals are susceptible to transport and can contribute significantly to the overall P loads in drainage water. A settling tank experiment was conducted to capture particulates during tropical storm Isaac in 2012 from three farms approximately 2.4 to 3.6 km2 in size. Farm canal discharge water was collected in a series of two 200 liter settling tanks over a seven-day drainage period, during tropical storm Isaac. Water from the settling tanks was siphoned through Imhoff settling cones, where the particulates were allowed to settle and collected for P-fractionation analyses, and compared to intact sediment cores collected from the bottom of the canals. The discharged particulates contained higher organic matter content (OM), total P, and labile P fractions compared to the canal bottom sediments. Based on the equilibrium P concentrations, surface sediments behave as a source of P to the water column. A seven-day continuous drainage event exported 4.7 to 11.1 metric tons of suspended solids per farm, corresponding to 32 to 63 kg of particulate P being lost to downstream ecosystems. Drainage associated to a single seven-day storm event exported up to 61% of the total annual farm P load. It is evident from this study that short-term, high-intensity storm events can skew annual P loads due to the export of significantly higher particulate matter from farm canals. Exported particulates rich in P can provide a supplemental source of nutrients if captured and replenished back into the farmlands, as a sustainable farming practice.

  2. Residents’ Support in Major Local Events: Leeds Pride.

    Pappas, Nikolaos

    2016-01-01

    This article examines the extent to which community participation and perceived impacts have an influence on residents' support of major events, more specifically, the Leeds Pride celebration. The research examines the perspectives of 400 Leeds permanent residents. The study tests a structural equation model, which has its theoretical basis in social exchange theory. It examines the constructs of community participation, perceived positive and negative impacts, and community support, includin...

  3. Tracking the evolution of stream DOM source during storm events using end member mixing analysis based on DOM quality

    Yang, Liyang; Chang, Soon-Woong; Shin, Hyun-Sang; Hur, Jin

    2015-04-01

    The source of river dissolved organic matter (DOM) during storm events has not been well constrained, which is critical in determining the quality and reactivity of DOM. This study assessed temporal changes in the contributions of four end members (weeds, leaf litter, soil, and groundwater), which exist in a small forested watershed (the Ehwa Brook, South Korea), to the stream DOM during two storm events, using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) based on spectroscopic properties of DOM. The instantaneous export fluxes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chromophoric DOM (CDOM), and fluorescent components were all enhanced during peak flows. The DOC concentration increased with the flow rate, while CDOM and humic-like fluorescent components were diluted around the peak flows. Leaf litter was dominant for the DOM source in event 2 with a higher rainfall, although there were temporal variations in the contributions of the four end members to the stream DOM for both events. The contribution of leaf litter peaked while that of deeper soils decreased to minima at peak flows. Our results demonstrated that EMMA based on DOM properties could be used to trace the DOM source, which is of fundamental importance for understanding the factors responsible for river DOM dynamics during storm events.

  4. Measuring the impact of major life events upon happiness.

    Ballas, Dimitris; Dorling, Danny

    2007-12-01

    In recent years there have been numerous attempts to define and measure happiness in various contexts and pertaining to a wide range of disciplines, ranging from neuroscience and psychology to philosophy, economics and social policy. This article builds on recent work by economists who attempt to estimate happiness regressions using large random samples of individuals in order to calculate monetary 'compensating amounts' for different life 'events'. We estimate happiness regressions using the 'major life event' and 'happiness' data from the British Household Panel Survey. The data and methods used in this article suggest that in contrast to living states such as 'being married', it is more events such as 'starting a new relationship' that have the highest positive effect on happiness. This is closely followed by 'employment-related gains' (in contrast to employment status). Also, women who become pregnant on average report higher than average levels of subjective happiness (in contrast to 'being a parent'). Other events that appear to be associated with happiness according to our analysis include 'personal education-related events' (e.g. starting a new course, graduating from University, passing exams) and 'finance/house related events' (e.g. buying a new house). On the other hand, the event that has the highest negative impact upon happiness according to our analysis is 'the end of my relationship' closely followed by 'death of a parent'. Adverse health events pertaining to the parents of the respondents also have a high negative coefficient and so does an employment-related loss. The analysis presented in this article suggests that what matters the most in people's lives in Britain is to have good dynamic interpersonal relationships and to be respected at work with that respect being constantly renewed. These 'goods' are as much reflected through dynamic events as static situations. Relationships at work appear to be of a similar order of importance to those at

  5. Hindcast storm events in the Bering Sea for the St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet Regions, Alaska

    Erikson, Li H.; McCall, Robert T.; van Rooijen, Arnold; Norris, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    This study provides viable estimates of historical storm-induced water levels in the coastal communities of Gambell and Savoonga situated on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea, as well as Unalakleet located at the head of Norton Sound on the western coast of Alaska. Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalakleet are small Native Villages that are regularly impacted by coastal storms but where little quantitative information about these storms exists. The closest continuous water-level gauge is at Nome, located more than 200 kilometers from both St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet. In this study, storms are identified and quantified using historical atmospheric and sea-ice data and then used as boundary conditions for a suite of numerical models. The work includes storm-surge (temporary rise in water levels due to persistent strong winds and low atmospheric pressures) modeling in the Bering Strait region, as well as modeling of wave runup along specified sections of the coast in Gambell and Unalakleet. Modeled historical water levels are used to develop return periods of storm surge and storm surge plus wave runup at key locations in each community. It is anticipated that the results will fill some of the data void regarding coastal flood data in western Alaska and be used for production of coastal vulnerability maps and community planning efforts.

  6. Comparison of two recent storm surge events based on results of field surveys

    Nakamura, Ryota; Shibayama, Tomoya; Mikami, Takahito; Esteban, Miguel; Takagi, Hiroshi; Maell, Martin; Iwamoto, Takumu

    2017-10-01

    This paper compares two different types of storm surge disaster based on field surveys. Two cases: a severe storm surge flood with its height of over 5 m due to Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippine, and inundation of storm surge around Nemuro city in Hokkaido of Japan with its maximum surge height of 2.8 m caused by extra-tropical cyclone are taken as examples. For the case of the Typhoon Haiyan, buildings located in coastal region were severely affected due to a rapidly increase in ocean surface. The non-engineering buildings were partially or completely destroyed due to their debris transported to an inner bay region. In fact, several previous reports indicated two unique features, bore-like wave and remarkably high speed currents. These characteristics of the storm surge may contribute to a wide-spread corruption for the buildings around the affected region. Furthermore, in the region where the surge height was nearly 3 m, the wooden houses were completely or partially destroyed. On the other hand, in Nemuro city, a degree of suffering in human and facility caused by the storm surge is minor. There was almost no partially destroyed residential houses even though the height of storm surge reached nearly 2.8 m. An observation in the tide station in Nemuro indicated that this was a usual type of storm surge, which showed a gradual increase of sea level height in several hours without possessing the unique characteristics like Typhoon Haiyan. As a result, not only the height of storm surge but also the robustness of the buildings and characteristics of storm surge, such as bore like wave and strong currents, determined the existent of devastation in coastal regions.

  7. Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

    French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

    2017-04-01

    Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is

  8. Discussion: Comparison of slope instability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy

    Lingley, Leslie; Slaughter, Stephen L.; Sarikhan, Isabelle Y.; Norman, David K.

    2013-02-01

    This discussion is in response to the article entitled "Comparison of slope stability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy" by Kara Whittaker and Dan McShane (Geomorphology 145-146 (2012) 115-122). The discussion is coauthored by several geologists at the Washington Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) including those from the research and policy sections of the state agency.

  9. Effects of Storm Events on Bacteria and Nutrients in the Bayou Chico Watershed

    Hobbs, S. E.; Truong, S.

    2017-12-01

    Levels of Escherichia coli and abiotic nutrients often increase in response to storm events due to urban runoff. The urban setting, aging septic systems, and ample pet waste (predominant sources of bacterial and nutrient contamination) that surround Bayou Chico, provide abundant possibilities for contamination. E. coli is a gram-negative, rod shaped bacteria commonly found in the intestines of animals; while some strains are harmless, others produce dangerous toxins that can cause side effects and sometimes death. Along with E. coli, inorganic nutrient concentrations (orthophosphate, nitrate/nitrite, and ammonium) are key indicators of water quality. Dissolved nutrients promote the growth of primary producers and excessive amounts lead to algal blooms, often reducing biodiversity. Four sites were sampled weekly in June and July 2017; during which, June had the highest rainfall in comparison to the past three years; these four sites represented three different sub-watersheds of the Bayou Chico Watershed, with differing land-use at each site. Historical nutrient and bacterial data from the Bream Fishermen Association was also compared and examined to determine long term trends and obtain a more in-depth understanding of the dynamics of water quality in th urban setting. E. coli levels were universally high (ranging from 98 to 12,997 MPN/100mL) for all sites and did not show observable correlations to rainfall; possibly influenced by the systemic and anomalous heavy precipitation during most of the summer study period. Nitrate was detected at levels between 2.5 and 154.0 µM, while ammonium levels ranged from 0 to 16.1 µM. Three of four stations showed extremely elevated dissolved inorganic nitrogen and ammonium while one station showed low levels of these nutrients. Correlations between these nutrient loads and rainfall, support the hypothesis that runoff into tributary creeks contributes significant inorganic nutrient loads to the Bayou Chico urban estuary.

  10. Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

    Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

  11. Longitudinal differences observed in the ionospheric F-region during the major geomagnetic storm of 31 March 2001

    Y. Sahai

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available A new ionospheric sounding station using a Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde (CADI was established for routine measurements by the "Universidade do Vale do Paraiba (UNIVAP" at São José dos Campos (23.2° S, 45.9° W, Brazil, in August 2000. A major geomagnetic storm with gradual commencement at about 01:00 UT was observed on 31 March 2001. In this paper, we present and discuss salient features from the ionospheric sounding measurements carried out at S. J. Campos on the three consecutive UT days 30 March (quiet, 31 March (disturbed and 1 April (recovery 2001. During most of the storm period, the foF2 values showed negative phase, whereas during the two storm-time peaks, large F-region height variations were observed. In order to study the longitudinal differences observed in the F-region during the storm, the simultaneous ionospheric sounding measurements carried out at S. J. Campos, El Arenosillo (37.1° N, 6.7° W, Spain, Okinawa (26.3° N, 127.8° E, Japan and Wakkanai (45.5° N, 141.7° E, Japan, during the period 30 March-1 April 2001, have been analyzed. A comparison of the observed ionospheric parameters (h'F and foF2 in the two longitudinal zones (1. Japanese and 2. Brazilian-Spanish shows both similarities and differences associated with the geomagnetic disturbances. Some latitudinal differences are also observed in the two longitudinal zones. In addition, global ionospheric TEC maps from the worldwide network of GPS receivers are presented, showing widespread TEC changes during both the main and recovery phases of the storm. The ionospheric sounding measurements are compared with the ASPEN-TIMEGCM model runs appropriate for the storm conditions. The model results produce better agreement during the quiet period. During the disturbed period, some of the observed F-region height variations are well reproduced by the model results. The model foF2 and TEC results differ considerably during the recovery period and indicate much

  12. Longitudinal differences observed in the ionospheric F-region during the major geomagnetic storm of 31 March 2001

    Y. Sahai

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available A new ionospheric sounding station using a Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosonde (CADI was established for routine measurements by the "Universidade do Vale do Paraiba (UNIVAP" at São José dos Campos (23.2° S, 45.9° W, Brazil, in August 2000. A major geomagnetic storm with gradual commencement at about 01:00 UT was observed on 31 March 2001. In this paper, we present and discuss salient features from the ionospheric sounding measurements carried out at S. J. Campos on the three consecutive UT days 30 March (quiet, 31 March (disturbed and 1 April (recovery 2001. During most of the storm period, the foF2 values showed negative phase, whereas during the two storm-time peaks, large F-region height variations were observed. In order to study the longitudinal differences observed in the F-region during the storm, the simultaneous ionospheric sounding measurements carried out at S. J. Campos, El Arenosillo (37.1° N, 6.7° W, Spain, Okinawa (26.3° N, 127.8° E, Japan and Wakkanai (45.5° N, 141.7° E, Japan, during the period 30 March-1 April 2001, have been analyzed. A comparison of the observed ionospheric parameters (h'F and foF2 in the two longitudinal zones (1. Japanese and 2. Brazilian-Spanish shows both similarities and differences associated with the geomagnetic disturbances. Some latitudinal differences are also observed in the two longitudinal zones. In addition, global ionospheric TEC maps from the worldwide network of GPS receivers are presented, showing widespread TEC changes during both the main and recovery phases of the storm. The ionospheric sounding measurements are compared with the ASPEN-TIMEGCM model runs appropriate for the storm conditions. The model results produce better agreement during the quiet period. During the disturbed period, some of the observed F-region height variations are well reproduced by the model results. The model foF2 and TEC results differ considerably during the

  13. Concentrations and loads of suspended sediment-associated pesticides in the San Joaquin River, California and tributaries during storm events

    Hladik, M.L.; Domagalski, Joseph L.; Kuivila, K.M.

    2009-01-01

    Current-use pesticides associated with suspended sediments were measured in the San Joaquin River, California and its tributaries during two storm events in 2008. Nineteen pesticides were detected: eight herbicides, nine insecticides, one fungicide and one insecticide synergist. Concentrations for the herbicides (0.1 to 3000 ng/g; median of 6.1 ng/g) were generally greater than those for the insecticides (0.2 to 51 ng/g; median of 1.5 ng/g). Concentrations in the tributaries were usually greater than in the mainstem San Joaquin River and the west side tributaries were higher than the east side tributaries. Estimated instantaneous loads ranged from 1.3 to 320 g/day for herbicides and 0.03 to 53 g/day for insecticides. The greatest instantaneous loads came from the Merced River on the east side. Instantaneous loads were greater for the first storm of 2008 than the second storm in the tributaries while the instantaneous loads within the San Joaquin River were greater during the second storm. Pesticide detections generally reflected pesticide application, but other factors such as physical-chemical properties and timing of application were also important to pesticide loads.

  14. Ionospheric Storm Effects and Equatorial Plasma Irregularities During the 17-18 March 2015 Event

    Zhou, Yun-Liang; Luhr, Hermann; Xiong, Chao; Pfaff, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    The intense magnetic storm on 17-18 March 2015 caused large disturbances of the ionosphere. Based on the plasma density (Ni) observations performed by the Swarm fleet of satellites, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission, and the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, we characterize the storm-related perturbations at low latitudes. All these satellites sampled the ionosphere in morning and evening time sectors where large modifications occurred. Modifications of plasma density are closely related to changes of the solar wind merging electric field (E (sub m)). We consider two mechanisms, prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF), as the main cause for the Ni redistribution, but effects of meridional wind are also taken into account. At the start of the storm main phase, the PPEF is enhancing plasma density on the dayside and reducing it on the nightside. Later, DDEF takes over and causes the opposite reaction. Unexpectedly, there appears during the recovery phase a strong density enhancement in the morning/pre-noon sector and a severe Ni reduction in the afternoon/evening sector, and we suggest a combined effect of vertical plasma drift, and meridional wind is responsible for these ionospheric storm effects. Different from earlier studies about this storm, we also investigate the influence of storm dynamics on the initiation of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs). Shortly after the start of the storm main phase, EPIs appear in the post-sunset sector. As a response to a short-lived decline of E (sub m), EPI activity appears in the early morning sector. Following the second start of the main phase, EPIs are generated for a few hours in the late evening sector. However, for the rest of the storm main phase, no more EPIs are initiated for more than 12 hours. Only after the onset of recovery phase does EPI activity start again in the post-midnight sector, lasting more than 7 hours

  15. A study of solar and interplanetary parameters of CMEs causing major geomagnetic storms during SC 23

    C. Oprea

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyse 25 Earth-directed and strongly geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs which occurred during solar cycle 23, using data provided by instruments on SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer and geomagnetic stations. We also examine the in situ parameters, the energy transfer into magnetosphere, and the geomagnetic indexes. We compare observed travel times with those calculated by observed speeds projected into the plane of the sky and de-projected by a simple model. The best fit was found with the projected speeds. No correlation was found between the importance of a flare and the geomagnetic Dst (disturbance storm time index. By comparing the in situ parameters with the Dst index we find a strong connection between some of these parameters (such as Bz, Bs · V and the energy transfer into the magnetosphere with the strength of the geomagnetic storm. No correlation was found with proton density and plasma temperature. A superposed epoch analysis revealed a strong dependence of the Dst index on the southward component of interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, and to the Akasofu coupling function, which evaluates the energy transfer between the ICME and the magnetosphere. The analysis also showed that the geomagnetic field at higher latitudes is disturbed before the field around the Earth's equator.

  16. Prehospital severity scoring at major rock concert events.

    Erickson, T B; Koenigsberg, M; Bunney, E B; Schurgin, B; Levy, P; Willens, J; Tanner, L

    1997-01-01

    Rock and contemporary music concerts are popular, recurrent events requiring on-site medical staffing. To describe a novel severity score used to stratify the level of acuity of patients presenting to first-aid stations at these events. Retrospective review of charts generated at the first-aid stations of five major rock concerts within a 60,000 spectator capacity, outdoor, professional sports stadium. Participants included all concert patrons presenting to the stadium's first-aid stations as patients. Data were collected on patient demographics, history of drug or ethanol usage while at the concert event, first-aid station time, treatment rendered, diagnosis, and disposition. All patients evaluated were retrospectively assigned a "DRUG-ROCK" Injury Severity Score (DRISS) to stratify their level of acuity. Individual concert events and patient dispositions were compared statistically using chi-square, Fisher's exact, and the ANOVA Mean tests. Approximately 250,000 spectators attended the five concert events. First-aid stations evaluated 308 patients (utilization rate of 1.2 per 1,000 patrons). The most common diagnosis was minor trauma (130; 42%), followed in frequency by ethanol/illicit drug intoxication (98; 32%). The average time in the first-aid station was 23.5 +/- 22.5 minutes (+/- standard deviation; range: 5-150 minutes). Disposition of patients included 100 (32.5%) who were treated and released; 98 (32%) were transported by paramedics to emergency departments (EDs); and 110 (35.5%) signed-out against medical advise (AMA), refusing transport. The mean DRISS was 4.1 (+/- 2.65). Two-thirds (67%) of the study population were ranked as mild by DRISS criteria (score = 1-4), with 27% rated as moderate (score = 5-9), and 6% severe (score > 10). The average of severity scores was highest (6.5) for patients transported to hospitals, and statistically different from the scores of the average of the treated and released and AMA groups (p rock concerts.

  17. The future of gas and major current events

    Anon.

    2007-01-01

    Natural gas market has been completely open in France since July 1, 2007. Long-time operators like Gaz de France (GdF) and local distribution companies, have adapted to the new constraints mainly by meeting the requirement to separate the infrastructure business from the commercial activities. Newcomers, mostly well-known foreign companies, have joined the traditional operators. Overall, the French market is working well, rules have been implemented and are being adequately enforced. To support these changes, the French gas industry needs a recognised professional association. The French gas association (AFG) fills this role, and promotes the image of gas through various events, congresses and meetings. This paper expresses the AFG's position concerning the future of gas in relation to major current events: AFG estimates that gas should play a full role in the energy spectrum based on its unique properties and wishes that public authorities take into consideration all features of all energy sources in their strategies, in particular CO 2 emissions all along the energy processes. AFG requests public authorities to set up fair, motivative and stable operating rules at least to the medium term. AFG would like the Energy regulating committee (CRE) to set an investment return rate that gives investors a sufficient incentive without penalizing the gas consumer. The AFG requests also that the administrative procedures for investment are simplified, with clarified rules and a fast arbitration for not delaying the opening of infrastructures. (J.S.)

  18. Reply: Comparison of slope instability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy

    Whittaker, Kara A.; McShane, Dan

    2013-02-01

    A large storm event in southwest Washington State triggered over 2500 landslides and provided an opportunity to assess two slope stability screening tools. The statistical analysis conducted demonstrated that both screening tools are effective at predicting where landslides were likely to take place (Whittaker and McShane, 2012). Here we reply to two discussions of this article related to the development of the slope stability screening tools and the accuracy and scale of the spatial data used. Neither of the discussions address our statistical analysis or results. We provide greater detail on our sampling criteria and also elaborate on the policy and management implications of our findings and how they complement those of a separate investigation of landslides resulting from the same storm. The conclusions made in Whittaker and McShane (2012) stand as originally published unless future analysis indicates otherwise.

  19. Characterisation of diffuse pollutions from forested watersheds in Japan during storm events - its association with rainfall and watershed features.

    Zhang, Zhao; Fukushima, Takehiko; Onda, Yuichi; Mizugaki, Shigeru; Gomi, Takashi; Kosugi, Ken'ichirou; Hiramatsu, Shinya; Kitahara, Hikaru; Kuraji, Koichiro; Terajima, Tomomi; Matsushige, Kazuo; Tao, Fulu

    2008-02-01

    Forest areas have been identified as important sources of nonpoint pollution in Japan. The managers must estimate stormwater quality and quantities from forested watersheds to develop effective management strategies. Therefore, stormwater runoff loads and concentrations of 10 constituents (total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, PO(4)-P, dissolved total phosphorus, total phosphorus, NH(4)-N, NO(2)-N, NO(3)-N, dissolved total nitrogen, and total nitrogen) for 72 events across five regions (Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and Tokyo) were characterised. Most loads were significantly and positively correlated with stormwater variables (total event rainfall, event duration, and rainfall intensity), but most discharge-weighted event concentrations (DWECs) showed negative correlations with rainfall intensity. Mean water quality concentration during baseflow was correlated significantly with storm concentrations (r=0.41-0.77). Although all pollutant load equations showed high coefficients of determination (R(2)=0.55-0.80), no models predicted well pollutant concentrations, except those for the three N constituents (R(2)=0.59-0.67). Linear regressions to estimate stormwater concentrations and loads were greatly improved by regional grouping. The lower prediction capability of the concentration models for Mie, compared with the other four regions, indicated that other watershed or storm characteristics should be included in the prediction models. Significant differences among regions were found more frequently in concentrations than in loads for all constituents. Since baseflow conditions implied available pollutant sources for stormwater, the similar spatial characteristics of pollutant concentrations between baseflow and stormflow conditions were an important control for stormwater quality.

  20. Changing Sediment Dynamics of a Mature Backbarrier Salt Marsh in Response to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Events

    Mark Schuerch

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Our study analyses the long-term development of a tidal backbarrier salt marsh in the northern German Wadden Sea. The focus lies on the development of the high-lying, inner, mature part of the salt marsh, which shows a striking history of changing sediment dynamics. The analysis of high-resolution old aerial photographs and sampled sediment cores suggests that the mature part of the marsh was shielded by a sand barrier from the open sea for decades. The supply with fine-grained sediments occurred from the marsh inlet through the tidal channels to the inner salt marsh. Radiometric dating (210Pb and 137Cs reveals that the sedimentation pattern changed fundamentally around the early-mid 1980s when the sedimentation rates increased sharply. By analyzing the photographic evidence, we found that the sand barrier was breached during storm events in the early 1980s. As a result, coarse-grained sediments were brought directly through this overwash from the sea to the mature part of the salt marsh and increased the sedimentation rates. We show that the overwash and the channels created by these storm events built a direct connection to the sea and reduced the distance to the sediment source which promoted salt marsh growth and a supply with coarse-grained sediments. Consequently, the original sediment input from the tidal channels is found to play a minor role in the years following the breach event. The presented study showcases the morphological development of a mature marsh, which contradicts the commonly accepted paradigm of decreasing sedimentation rates with increasing age of the marsh. We argue that similar trends are likely to be observed in other backbarrier marshes, developing in the shelter of unstabilized sand barriers. It further highlights the question of how resilient these salt marshes are toward sea level rise and how extreme storm events interfere in determining the resilience of a mature salt marsh.

  1. Relativistic electron acceleration during HILDCAA events: are precursor CIR magnetic storms important?

    Hajra, R.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Echer, E.; Gonzalez, W. D.; Brum, Ch. G. M.; Antunes Vieira, L. E.; Santolík, Ondřej

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 67, Article Number 109 (2015), 109/1-109/11 ISSN 1880-5981 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH12231 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : HILDCAAs * high-speed streams * CIRs * chorus plasma waves * radiation belt * magnetospheric relativistic electrons * solar wind * geomagnetic storms Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.871, year: 2015

  2. Effects on Storm-Water Management for Three Major US Cities Using Location Specific Extreme Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling

    Pelle, A.; Allen, M.; Fu, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    With rising population and increasing urban density, it is of pivotal importance for urban planners to plan for increasing extreme precipitation events. Climate models indicate that an increase in global mean temperature will lead to increased frequency and intensity of storms of a variety of types. Analysis of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) has demonstrated that global climate models severely underestimate precipitation, however. Preliminary results from dynamical downscaling indicate that Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is expected to experience the greatest increase of precipitation due to an increase in annual extreme events in the US. New York City, New York and Chicago, Illinois are anticipated to have similarly large increases in annual extreme precipitation events. In order to produce more accurate results, we downscale Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York City using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). We analyze historical precipitation data and WRF output utilizing a Log Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution for frequency of extreme precipitation events. This study aims to determine the likelihood of extreme precipitation in future years and its effect on the of cost of stormwater management for these three cities.

  3. Characterization of major pollution events (dust, haze, and two festival events) at Agra, India.

    Pachauri, Tripti; Singla, Vyoma; Satsangi, Aparna; Lakhani, Anita; Kumari, K Maharaj

    2013-08-01

    Total suspended particulate (TSP) samples were collected during dust, haze, and two festival events (Holi and Diwali) from February 2009 to June 2010. Pollutant gases (NO2, SO2, and O3) along with the meteorological parameters were also measured during the four pollution events at Agra. The concentration of pollutant gases decreases during dust events (DEs), but the levels of the gases increase during other pollution events indicating the impact of anthropogenic emissions. The mass concentrations were about two times higher during pollution events than normal days (NDs). High TSP concentrations during Holi and Diwali events may be attributed to anthropogenic activities while increased combustion sources in addition to stagnant meteorological conditions contributed to high TSP mass during haze events. On the other hand, long-range transport of atmospheric particles plays a major role during DEs. In the dust samples, Ca(2+), Cl(-), NO3 (-), and SO4 (2-) were the most abundant ions and Ca(2+) alone accounted for 22 % of the total ionic mass, while during haze event, the concentrations of secondary aerosols species, viz., NO3 (-), SO4 (2-), and NH4 (+), were 3.6, 3.3, and 5.1 times higher than the normal days. During Diwali, SO4 (2-) concentration (17.8 μg m(-3)) was highest followed by NO3 (-), K(+), and Cl(-) while the Holi samples were strongly enriched with Cl(-) and K(+) which together made up 32.7 % of the total water-soluble ions. The ion balances indicate that the haze samples were acidic. On the other hand, Holi, Diwali, and DE samples were enriched with cations. The carbonaceous aerosol shows strong variation with the highest concentration during Holi followed by haze, Diwali, DEs, and NDs. However, the secondary organic carbon concentration follows the order haze > DEs > Diwali > Holi > NDs. The scanning electron microscope/EDX results indicate that KCl and carbon-rich particles were more dominant during Holi and haze events while DE samples were enriched

  4. Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Targeted Observation Strategies: Proof of Concept Analysis in a Geomagnetic Storm Event

    Kostelich, Eric; Durazo, Juan; Mahalov, Alex

    2017-11-01

    The dynamics of the ionosphere involve complex interactions between the atmosphere, solar wind, cosmic radiation, and Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms arising from solar activity can perturb these dynamics sufficiently to disrupt radio and satellite communications. Efforts to predict ``space weather,'' including ionospheric dynamics, require the development of a data assimilation system that combines observing systems with appropriate forecast models. This talk will outline a proof-of-concept targeted observation strategy, consisting of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, coupled with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model, to select optimal locations where additional observations can be made to improve short-term ionospheric forecasts. Initial results using data and forecasts from the geomagnetic storm of 26-27 September 2011 will be described. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant Number FA9550-15-1-0096) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number DMS-0940314).

  5. "Physics and Life" - Teachers Meet Scientists at Major EIROforum Event [

    2003-11-01

    (EPS) and the European Association for Astronomy Education (EAAE) . The project is funded in part by the European Commission and takes place under the auspices of the European Science and Technology Week 2003. It is directed by the EIROforum Working Group on Outreach that brings together key members of the seven organisations' respective outreach departments. The "Physics on Stage 3" festival will be opened on Monday, November 10, by His Royal Highness, Prince Johan Friso of the Netherlands. Among the distinguished guests will also be Her Excellency, Mrs. Maria van der Hoeven, the Dutch Minister of Education, Culture and Science, as well as several Directors-General of the EIROforum organisations. This "Physics on Stage 3" festival is the most visible event within a year-long programme with the very active involvement of National Committees in two dozen European countries, each of which organised national events or competitions, during which the 400 delegates to the festival were selected for their outstanding projects to promote science teaching. Among the many entries, for example, two young physicists from Germany focus on the beauty of physical phenomena, producing fractals and demonstrating the "Theremin", the only musical instrument played without being touched. In another demonstration, a team from the UK explore the nature of sound and the theme of genetics through drama, music and physical theatre. In this third international festival of physics education, biological and biochemical themes will also play a major role. As usual, the colourful centrepiece of the week is the Fair. Every country has its own stand where delegates show their new, exciting and surprising projects, innovative software, elegant experiments, etc. In this highly inspiring atmosphere, the teachers exchange practical experience and insights, learning from each other and preparing themselves to bring back to their respective countries a rich harvest of new ideas and inspiration for better

  6. Assessing the continuity of the upland sediment cascade, fluvial geomorphic response of an upland river to an extreme flood event: Storm Desmond, Cumbria, UK.

    Joyce, Hannah; Hardy, Richard; Warburton, Jeff

    2017-04-01

    Hillslope erosion and accelerated lake sedimentation are often viewed as the source and main storage elements in the upland sediment cascade. However, the continuity of sediment transfer through intervening valley systems has rarely been evaluated during extreme events. Storm Desmond (4th - 6th December, 2015) produced record-breaking rainfall maximums in the UK: 341.4 mm rainfall was recorded in a 24 hour period at Honister Pass, Western Lake District, and 405 mm of rainfall was recorded in a 38 hour period at Thirlmere, central Lake District. The storm was the largest in a 150 year local rainfall series, and exceeded previous new records set in the 2005 and 2009 floods. During this exceptional event, rivers over topped flood defences, and caused damage to over 257 bridges, flooded over 5000 homes and businesses, and caused substantial geomorphic change along upland rivers. This research quantifies the geomorphic and sedimentary response to Storm Desmond along a regulated gravel-bed river: St John's Beck. St John's Beck (length 7.8 km) is a channelised low gradient river (0.005) downstream of Thirlmere Reservoir, which joins the River Greta, and flows through Keswick, where major flooding has occurred, before discharging into Bassenthwaite Lake. St John's Beck has a history of chronic sediment aggradation, erosion and reports of historic flooding date back to 1750. During Storm Desmond, riverbanks were eroded, coarse sediment was deposited across valuable farmland and access routes were destroyed, including a bridge and footpaths, disrupting local business. A sediment budget framework has been used to quantify geomorphic change and sedimentary characteristics of the event along St John's Beck. The volume and sediment size distribution of flood deposits, channel bars, tributary deposits, floodplain scour, riverbank erosion and in-channel bars were measured directly in the field and converted to mass using local estimates of coarse and fine sediment bulk densities

  7. Assessing cost-effectiveness of specific LID practice designs in response to large storm events

    Chui, Ting Fong May; Liu, Xin; Zhan, Wenting

    2016-02-01

    Low impact development (LID) practices have become more important in urban stormwater management worldwide. However, most research on design optimization focuses on relatively large scale, and there is very limited information or guideline regarding individual LID practice designs (i.e., optimal depth, width and length). The objective of this study is to identify the optimal design by assessing the hydrological performance and the cost-effectiveness of different designs of LID practices at a household or business scale, and to analyze the sensitivity of the hydrological performance and the cost of the optimal design to different model and design parameters. First, EPA SWMM, automatically controlled by MATLAB, is used to obtain the peak runoff of different designs of three specific LID practices (i.e., green roof, bioretention and porous pavement) under different design storms (i.e., 2 yr and 50 yr design storms of Hong Kong, China and Seattle, U.S.). Then, life cycle cost is estimated for the different designs, and the optimal design, defined as the design with the lowest cost and at least 20% peak runoff reduction, is identified. Finally, sensitivity of the optimal design to the different design parameters is examined. The optimal design of green roof tends to be larger in area but thinner, while the optimal designs of bioretention and porous pavement tend to be smaller in area. To handle larger storms, however, it is more effective to increase the green roof depth, and to increase the area of the bioretention and porous pavement. Porous pavement is the most cost-effective for peak flow reduction, followed by bioretention and then green roof. The cost-effectiveness, measured as the peak runoff reduction/thousand Dollars of LID practices in Hong Kong (e.g., 0.02 L/103 US s, 0.15 L/103 US s and 0.93 L/103 US s for green roof, bioretention and porous pavement for 2 yr storm) is lower than that in Seattle (e.g., 0.03 L/103 US s, 0.29 L/103 US s and 1.58 L/103 US s for

  8. Contributions of human activities to suspended-sediment yield during storm events from a steep, small, tropical watershed, American Samoa

    Messina, A. T.; Biggs, T. W.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic watershed disturbance by agriculture, deforestation, roads, and urbanization can alter the timing, composition, and mass of sediment loads to adjacent coral reefs, causing enhanced sediment stress on corals near the outlets of impacted watersheds like Faga'alu, American Samoa. To quantify the increase in sediment loading to the adjacent priority coral reef experiencing sedimentation stress, suspended-sediment yield (SSY) from undisturbed and human-disturbed portions of a small, steep, tropical watershed was measured during baseflow and storm events of varying magnitude. Data on precipitation, discharge, turbidity, and suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) were collected over three field campaigns and continuous monitoring from January 2012 to March 2014, which included 88 storm events. A combination of paired- and nested-watershed study designs using sediment budget, disturbance ratio, and sediment rating curve methodologies was used to quantify the contribution of human-disturbed areas to total SSY. SSC during base- and stormflows was significantly higher downstream of an open-pit aggregate quarry, indicating the quarry is a key sediment source requiring sediment discharge mitigation. Comparison of event-wise SSY from the upper, undisturbed watershed, and the lower, human-disturbed watershed showed the Lower watershed accounted for more than 80% of total SSY on average, and human activities have increased total sediment loading to the coast by approximately 200%. Four storm characteristics were tested as predictors of event SSY using Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients. Similar to mountainous watersheds in semi-arid and temperate watersheds, SSY from both the undisturbed and disturbed watersheds had the highest correlation with event maximum discharge, Qmax (Pearson's R=0.88 and 0.86 respectively), and were best fit by a power law relationship. The resulting model of event-SSY from Faga'alu is being incorporated as part of a larger

  9. Major Cardiac Events After Non-cardiac Surgery.

    Sousa, Gabriela; Lopes, Ana; Reis, Pedro; Carvalho, Vasco; Santos, Alice; Abelha, Fernando José

    2016-08-01

    Postoperative cardiovascular complications might be difficult to assess and are known to be associated with longer hospital stay and increased costs as well as higher morbidity and mortality rates. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictors for major cardiac events (MCE) after non-cardiac surgery. The study included 4398 patients who were admitted to the Surgical Intensive Care Unit between January 1, 2006 and July 19, 2013. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) were calculated, and all variables entered as parameters were evaluated independently. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the independent factors for MCE. A total of 107 people experienced MCE. The independent predictors for postoperative MCE were higher fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) (odds ratio [OR] 38.97; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 10.81-140.36), history of ischemic heart disease (OR 3.38; 95 % CI 2.12-5.39), history of congestive heart disease (OR 2.39; 95 % CI 1.49-3.85), history of insulin therapy for diabetes (OR 2.93; 95 % CI 1.66-5.19), and increased SAPS II (OR 1.03; 95 % CI 1.01-1.05). Having a MCE was associated with a longer length of stay in the surgical intensive care unit (OR 1.01, 95 % CI 1.00-1.01). FiO2, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart disease, insulin therapy for diabetes, SAPS II, and length of stay in the surgical intensive care unit were independent predictors for MCE.

  10. Effects of land use and sample location on nitrate-stream flow hysteresis descriptors during storm events

    Feinson, Lawrence S.; Gibs, Jacob; Imbrigiotta, Thomas E.; Garrett, Jessica D.

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's New Jersey and Iowa Water Science Centers deployed ultraviolet-visible spectrophotometric sensors at water-quality monitoring sites on the Passaic and Pompton Rivers at Two Bridges, New Jersey, on Toms River at Toms River, New Jersey, and on the North Raccoon River near Jefferson, Iowa to continuously measure in-stream nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen (NO3 + NO2) concentrations in conjunction with continuous stream flow measurements. Statistical analysis of NO3 + NO2 vs. stream discharge during storm events found statistically significant links between land use types and sampling site with the normalized area and rotational direction of NO3 + NO2-stream discharge (N-Q) hysteresis patterns. Statistically significant relations were also found between the normalized area of a hysteresis pattern and several flow parameters as well as the normalized area adjusted for rotational direction and minimum NO3 + NO2 concentrations. The mean normalized hysteresis area for forested land use was smaller than that of urban and agricultural land uses. The hysteresis rotational direction of the agricultural land use was opposite of that of the urban and undeveloped land uses. An r2 of 0.81 for the relation between the minimum normalized NO3 + NO2 concentration during a storm vs. the normalized NO3 + NO2 concentration at peak flow suggested that dilution was the dominant process controlling NO3 + NO2 concentrations over the course of most storm events.

  11. Personality, Stressful Life Events, and Treatment Response in Major Depression

    Bulmash, Eric; Harkness, Kate L.; Stewart, Jeremy G.; Bagby, R. Michael

    2009-01-01

    The current study examined whether the personality traits of self-criticism or dependency moderated the effect of stressful life events on treatment response. Depressed outpatients (N = 113) were randomized to 16 weeks of cognitive-behavioral therapy, interpersonal psychotherapy, or antidepressant medication (ADM). Stressful life events were…

  12. Field-aligned currents observed by CHAMP during the intense 2003 geomagnetic storm events

    H. Wang

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This study concentrates on the characteristics of field-aligned currents (FACs in both hemispheres during the extreme storms in October and November 2003. High-resolution CHAMP magnetic data reflect the dynamics of FACs during these geomagnetic storms, which are different from normal periods. The peak intensity and most equatorward location of FACs in response to the storm phases are examined separately for both hemispheres, as well as for the dayside and nightside. The corresponding large-scale FAC peak densities are, on average, enhanced by about a factor of 5 compared to the quiet-time FACs' strengths. And the FAC densities on the dayside are, on average, 2.5 times larger in the Southern (summer than in the Northern (winter Hemisphere, while the observed intensities on the nightside are comparable between the two hemispheres. Solar wind dynamic pressure is correlated with the FACs strength on the dayside. However, the latitudinal variations of the FACs are compared with the variations in Dst and the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz, in order to determine how these parameters control the large-scale FACs' configuration in the polar region. We have determined that (1 the equatorward shift of FACs on the dayside is directly controlled by the southward IMF Bz and there is a saturation of the latitudinal displacement for large value of negative Bz. In the winter hemisphere this saturation occurs at higher latitudes than in the summer hemisphere. (2 The equatorward expansion of the nightside FACs is delayed with respect to the solar wind input. The poleward recovery of FACs on the nightside is slower than on the dayside. The latitudinal variations on the nightside are better described by the variations of the Dst index. (3 The latitudinal width of the FAC region on the nightside spreads over a wide range of about 25° in latitude.

  13. Distributions of typical contaminant species in urban short-term storm runoff and their fates during rain events: a case of Xiamen City.

    Wei, Qunshan; Zhu, Gefu; Wu, Peng; Cui, Li; Zhang, Kaisong; Zhou, Jingjing; Zhang, Wenru

    2010-01-01

    The pollutants in urban storm runoff, which lead to an non-point source contamination of water environment around cities, are of great concerns. The distributions of typical contaminants and the variations of their species in short term storm runoff from different land surfaces in Xiamen City were investigated. The concentrations of various contaminants, including organic matter, nutrients (i.e., N and P) and heavy metals, were significantly higher in parking lot and road runoff than those in roof and lawn runoff. The early runoff samples from traffic road and parking lot contained much high total nitrogen (TN 6-19 mg/L) and total phosphorus (TP 1-3 mg/L). A large proportion (around 60%) of TN existed as total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) species in most runoff. The percentage of TDN and the percentage of total dissolved phosphorus remained relatively stable during the rain events and did not decrease as dramatically as TN and TP. In addition, only parking lot and road runoff were contaminated by heavy metals, and both Pb (25-120 microg/L) and Zn (0.1-1.2 mg/L) were major heavy metals contaminating both runoff. Soluble Pb and Zn were predominantly existed as labile complex species (50%-99%), which may be adsorbed onto the surfaces of suspended particles and could be easily released out when pH decreased. This would have the great impact to the environment.

  14. USING DENDROCHRONOLOGY TO IDENTIFY MAJOR ICE STORM EVENTS IN OAK FORESTS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. (R825157)

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  15. Ionospheric response to a recurrent magnetic storm during an event of High Speed Stream in October 2016.

    Nicoli Candido, C. M.; Resende, L.; Becker-Guedes, F.; Batista, I. S.

    2017-12-01

    In this work we investigate the response of the low latitude ionosphere to recurrent geomagnetic activity caused by events of High speed streams (HSSs)/Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) during the low descending phase of solar activity in the solar cycle 24. Intense magnetic field regions called Corotating Interaction Regions or CIRs are created by the interaction of fast streams and slow streams ejected by long duration coronal holes in Sun. This interaction leads to an increase in the mean interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) which causes moderate and recurrent geomagnetic activity when interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere. The ionosphere can be affected by these phenomena by several ways, such as an increase (or decrease) of the plasma ionization, intensification of plasma instabilities during post-sunset/post-midnight hours and subsequent development of plasma irregularities/spread-F, as well as occurrence of plasma scintillation. Therefore, we investigate the low latitude ionospheric response during moderate geomagnetic storm associated to an event of High Speed Stream occurred during decreasing phase of solar activity in 2016. An additional ionization increasing is observed in Es layer during the main peak of the geomagnetic storm. We investigate two possible different mechanisms that caused these extras ionization: the role of prompt penetration of interplanetary electric field, IEFEy at equatorial region, and the energetic electrons precipitation on the E and F layers variations. Finally, we used data from Digisondes installed at equatorial region, São Luís, and at conjugate points in Brazilian latitudes, Boa Vista and Cachoeira Paulista. We analyzed the ionospheric parameters such as the critical frequency of F layer, foF2, the F layer peak height, hmF2, the F layer bottomside, h'F, the blanketing frequency of sporadic layer, fbEs, the virtual height of Es layer h'Es and the top frequency of the Es layer ftEs during this event.

  16. Modeling the dynamics of a storm-time acceleration event: combining MHD effects with wave-particle interactions

    Elkington, S. R.; Alam, S. S.; Chan, A. A.; Albert, J.; Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Wiltberger, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Global simulations of radiation belt dynamics are often undertaken using either a transport formalism (e.g. Fokker-Plank), or via test particle simulations in model electric and magnetic fields. While transport formalisms offer computational efficiency and the ability to deal with a wide range of wave-particle interactions, they typically rely on simplified background fields, and often are limited to empirically-specified stochastic (diffusive) wave-particle interactions. On the other hand, test particle simulations may be carried out in global MHD simulations that include realistic physical effects such as magnetopause shadowing, convection, and substorm injections, but lack the ability to handle physics outside the MHD approximation in the realm of higher frequency (kHz) wave populations.In this work we introduce a comprehensive simulation framework combining global MHD/test particle techniques to provide realistic background fields and radial transport processes, with a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) method for addressing high frequency wave-particle interactions. We examine the March 17, 2013 storm-time acceleration period, an NSF-GEM focus challenge event, and use the framework to examine the relative importance of physical effects such as magnetopause shadowing, diffusive and advective transport processes, and wave-particle interactions through the various phases of the storm.

  17. Major life events as potential triggers of sudden cardiac arrest.

    Wicks, April F; Lumley, Thomas; Lemaitre, Rozenn N; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Rea, Thomas D; McKnight, Barbara; Strogatz, David S; Bovbjerg, Viktor E; Siscovick, David S

    2012-05-01

    We investigated the risk of sudden cardiac arrest in association with the recent loss of, or separation from, a family member or friend. Our case-crossover study included 490 apparently healthy married residents of King County, Washington, who suffered sudden cardiac arrest between 1988 and 2005. We compared exposure to spouse-reported family/friend events occurring ≤ 1 month before sudden cardiac arrest with events occurring in the previous 5 months. We evaluated potential effect modification by habitual vigorous physical activity. Recent family/friend events were associated with a higher risk of sudden cardiac arrest (odds ratio [OR] = 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1-2.4). ORs for cases with and without habitual vigorous physical activity were 1.1 (0.6-2.2) and 2.0 (1.2-3.1), respectively (interaction P = 0.02). These results suggest family/friend events may trigger sudden cardiac arrest and raise the hypothesis that habitual vigorous physical activity may lower susceptibility to these potential triggers.

  18. MULTI-SPACECRAFT ANALYSIS OF ENERGETIC HEAVY ION AND INTERPLANETARY SHOCK PROPERTIES IN ENERGETIC STORM PARTICLE EVENTS NEAR 1 au

    Ebert, R. W.; Dayeh, M. A.; Desai, M. I. [Southwest Research Institute, 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, TX 78238 (United States); Jian, L. K. [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Li, G. [The Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research (CSPAR), University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35756 (United States); Mason, G. M., E-mail: rebert@swri.edu [Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20273 (United States)

    2016-11-10

    We examine the longitude distribution of and relationship between interplanetary (IP) shock properties and ∼0.1–20 MeV nucleon{sup -1} O and Fe ions during seven multi-spacecraft energetic storm particle (ESP) events at 1 au. These ESP events were observed at two spacecraft and were primarily associated with low Mach number, quasi-perpendicular shocks. Key observations include the following: (i) the Alfvén Mach number increased from east to west of the coronal mass ejection source longitude, while the shock speed, compression ratios, and obliquity showed no clear dependence; (ii) the O and Fe time intensity profiles and peak intensities varied significantly between longitudinally separated spacecraft observing the same event, the peak intensities being larger near the nose and smaller along the flank of the IP shock; (iii) the O and Fe peak intensities had weak to no correlations with the shock parameters; (iv) the Fe/O time profiles showed intra-event variations upstream of the shock that disappeared downstream of the shock, where values plateaued to those comparable to the mean Fe/O of solar cycle 23; (v) the O and Fe spectral index ranged from ∼1.0 to 3.4, the Fe spectra being softer in most events; and (vi) the observed spectral index was softer than the value predicted from the shock compression ratio in most events. We conclude that while the variations in IP shock properties may account for some variations in O and Fe properties within these multi-spacecraft events, detailed examination of the upstream seed population and IP turbulence, along with modeling, are required to fully characterize these observations.

  19. Community And Stakeholder Engagement With A University-Based Storm Research Team And Program During Events: Progressive Awareness, Cooperation And Mutual Support.

    Gayes, P. T.; Bao, S.; Yan, T.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Hallstrom, J.; Stirling, D.; Mullikin, T.; McClam, M.; Byrd, M.; Aucoin, K.; Marosites, B.

    2017-12-01

    HUGO: The HUrricane Genesis and Outlook program is a research initiative spanning new approaches to Atlantic tropical season outlooking to a storm event-related interactively coupled model system. In addition to supporting faculty and student academic research it has progressively been engaged by diverse regional interests in the public and private sector. The seasonal outlook incorporates 22 regional-to-global climate drivers developed from the historical storm database and has shown good skill related to historical storm seasons within the development of the model as well as the last several years in an outlook capacity. The event scale model is a based upon a fully interactively coupled model system incorporating ocean, atmosphere, wave and surge/flood models. The recent cluster of storms impacting the Southeast US provided an opportunity to test the model system and helped develop strong collaborative interests across diverse groups seeking to facilitate local capacity and access to additional storm-related information, observations and expertise. The SC State Guard has actively engaged the HUGO team in carrying out their charge in emergency responders planning and activities during several recent storms and flooding events. They were instrumental in developing support to expand observational systems aiding model validation and development as well as develop access pathways for deployment of new observational technology developed through NSF sponsored projects (Intelligent River and Hurricane-RAPID) with ISENSE at Florida Atlantic University to advance observational capability and density especially during or immediately following events. At the same time an increasing number of county-level emergency and environmental managers and private sector interests have similarly been working collaborately towards expanding observational systems contributing to the goals of the growing storm-oriented cooperative and as well as broader national MesoUS goals. Collectively

  20. Geomagnetic storms

    McNamara, A.G.

    1980-01-01

    Disturbances due to geomagnetic storms can affect the functioning of communications satellites and of power lines and other long conductors. Two general classes of geomagnetic activity can be distinguished: ionospheric current flow (the auroral electrojet), and magnetospheric compression. Super magnetic storms, such as the one of August 1972, can occur at any time and average about 17 occurrences per century. Electrical transmission systems can be made more tolerant of such events at a price, but the most effective way to minimize damage is by better operator training coupled with effective early warning systems. (LL)

  1. The impact of storm events on a riverbed system and its hydraulic conductivity at a site of induced infiltration.

    Levy, Jonathan; Birck, Matthew D; Mutiti, Samuel; Kilroy, Kathryn C; Windeler, Britton; Idris, Ominigho; Allen, Lauren N

    2011-08-01

    The spatial and temporal variability of riverbed vertical hydraulic conductivity (K(v)) was investigated at a site of induced infiltration, associated with a municipal well field, to assess the impact of high-stage events on scour and subsequently the riverbed K(v). Such impacts are important when considering the potential loss of riverbank filtration capacity due to storm events. The study site, in and along the Great Miami River in southwest Ohio, overlaid a highly productive glacial-outwash aquifer. A three-layer model for this system was conceptualized: a top layer of transient sediment, a second layer comprising large sediment resistant to scour, but clogged with finer sediment (the armor/colmation layer), and a third layer that was transitional to the underlying higher-K(v) aquifer. One location was studied in detail to confirm and quantify the conceptual model. Methods included seepage meters, heat-flow modeling, grain-size analyses, laboratory permeameter tests, slug tests and the use of scour chains and pressure-load cells to directly measure the amount of sediment scour and re-deposition. Seepage meter measured riverbed K(v) ranged from 0.017 to 1.7 m/d with a geometric mean of 0.19 m/d. Heat-transport model-calibrated estimates were even lower, ranging from 0.0061 to 0.046 m/d with a mean of 0.017 m/d. The relatively low K(v) was indicative of the clogged armor layer. In contrast, slug tests in the underlying riverbed sediment yielded K(v) values an order of magnitude greater. There was a linear relationship between scour chain measured scour and event intensity with a maximum scour of only 0.098 m. Load-cell pressure sensor data over a 7-month period indicated a total sediment-height fluctuation of 0.42 m and a maximum storm-event scour of 0.28 m. Scour data indicated that the assumed armor/colmation layer almost always remained intact. Based on measured layer conductivities and thicknesses, the overall K(v) of this conceptualized system was 1.6 m

  2. ENC 2002: Setting the scene for a major public event

    2001-01-01

    The series of European Conferences were coupled with the only major nuclear science and industry exhibitions of truly world dimension. They offer the perfect opportunity to serve as a platform for a clear and positive message on nuclear power in Europe to the public to promote an image of openness and sound business. Main objectives were: ease of access for the target groups; politically favourable environment; cost efficiency to be assured in the interest of the industry; state-of-the-art facilities; exhibition and conference under one roof

  3. Storm event-scale nutrient attenuation in constructed wetlands experiencing a Mediterranean climate: A comparison of a surface flow and hybrid surface-subsurface flow system.

    Adyel, Tanveer M; Oldham, Carolyn E; Hipsey, Matthew R

    2017-11-15

    Among different Water Sensitive Urban Design options, constructed wetlands (CWs) are used to protect and restore downstream water quality by attenuating nutrients generated by stormwater runoff. This research compared the nutrient attenuation ability during a diverse population of storm events of two CWs: (a) a hybrid CW with multiple alternating surface flow (SF) and laterite-based subsurface flow (SSF) compartments, and (b) a single stage SF CW. Within-storm variability, nutrient concentrations were assessed at 2 to 3-h intervals at both the main inlet and outlet of each CW. Dissolved oxygen concentrations of the surface waters were also monitored at 10-min intervals using high frequency in situ sensors. Nutrient loads into the CWs were observed to be higher when a high rainfall event occurred, particularly after longer antecedent dry conditions. Longer hydraulic retention times promoted higher attenuation at both sites. However, the relative extent of nutrient attenuation differed between the CW types; the mean total nitrogen (TN) attenuation in the hybrid and SF CW was 45 and 48%, respectively. The hybrid CW attenuated 67% total phosphorus (TP) loads on average, while the SF CW acted as a net TP source. Periodic storm events transitioned the lentic CW into a lotic CW and caused riparian zone saturation; it was therefore hypothesized that such saturation of organic matter rich-riparian zones led to release of TP in the system. The hybrid CW attenuated the released TP in the downstream laterite-based SSF compartments. Diel oxygen metabolism calculated before and after the storm events was found to be strongly correlated with water temperature, solar exposure and antecedent dry condition during the pre-storm conditions. Furthermore, the SF CW showed a significant relationship between overall nutrient load attenuation and the change in oxygen metabolism during the storm perturbation, suggesting oxygen variation could be a useful proxy indicator of CW function

  4. Impact of storm events on the structure of a stream microbiome

    The microbial structural and/or functional state in a stream community is assumed to be in relative stasis until a perturbation (e.g., runoff event with entrained pollutants) affects the community structure and its functional state. Quantifying these changes and resolving the spe...

  5. Epinephrine syringe exchange events in a paediatric cardiovascular ICU: analysing the storm.

    Achuff, Barbara-Jo; Achuff, Jameson C; Park, Hwan H; Moffett, Brady; Acosta, Sebastian; Rusin, Craig G; Checchia, Paul A

    2018-03-01

    Introduction Haemodynamically unstable patients can experience potentially hazardous changes in vital signs related to the exchange of depleted syringes of epinephrine to full syringes. The purpose was to determine the measured effects of epinephrine syringe exchanges on the magnitude, duration, and frequency of haemodynamic disturbances in the hour after an exchange event (study) relative to the hours before (control). Materials and methods Beat-to-beat vital signs recorded every 2 seconds from bedside monitors for patients admitted to the paediatric cardiovascular ICU of Texas Children's Hospital were collected between 1 January, 2013 and 30 June, 2015. Epinephrine syringe exchanges without dose/flow change were obtained from electronic records. Time, magnitude, and duration of changes in systolic blood pressure and heart rate were characterised using Matlab. Significant haemodynamic events were identified and compared with control data. In all, 1042 syringe exchange events were found and 850 (81.6%) had uncorrupted data for analysis. A total of 744 (87.5%) exchanges had at least 1 associated haemodynamic perturbation including 2958 systolic blood pressure and 1747 heart-rate changes. Heart-rate perturbations occurred 37% before exchange and 63% after exchange, and 37% of systolic blood pressure perturbations happened before syringe exchange, whereas 63% occurred after syringe exchange with significant differences found in systolic blood pressure frequency (pexchange events.

  6. Magnetic susceptibility as a simple tracer for fluvial sediment source ascription during storm events.

    Rowntree, Kate M; van der Waal, Bennie W; Pulley, Simon

    2017-06-01

    Sediment tracing using a single tracer, low frequency magnetic susceptibility (X lf ), was used to apportion suspended sediment to geologically defined source areas and to interpret sediment source changes during flood events in the degraded catchment of the Vuvu River, a headwater tributary of the Mzimbubu River, South Africa. The method was tested as a simple tool for use by catchment managers concerned with controlling erosion. The geology of the 58 km 2 catchment comprises two distinct formations: basalt in the upper catchment with a characteristically high magnetic susceptibility and shales with a low magnetic susceptibility in the lower catchment. Application of an unmixing model incorporating a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis showed that X lf provided a means to assign the proportion of each geological province contributing to the river's sediment load. Grab water samples were collected at ten-minute intervals during flood events for subsequent analysis of suspended sediment concentration and the magnetic susceptibility of the filtered sediment. Two floods are presented in detail, the first represents a significant event at the start of the wet season (max. discharge 32 m 3  s -1 ); the second was a smaller flood (max discharge 14 m 3  s -1 ) that occurred a month later. Suspended sediment concentrations during the twelve monitored events showed a characteristic decline over the wet season. The main source of suspended sediment was shown to be from the mudstones in the lower catchment, which contributed 86% of the total measured load. The sediment dynamics during the two floods monitored in detail were quite different from each other. In the first the sediment concentration was high (11 g L -1 ), peaking after the flood peak. The X lf value increased during the event, indicating that contribution to the sediment load from basalt in the upper catchment increased during the recession limb. In the second, smaller flood the sediment peak (6 g L -1

  7. Thunderstorms and flooding of August 17, 2007, with a context provided by a history of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area of South Dakota

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Bunkers, Matthew J.; Carter, Janet M.; Stamm, John F.; Williamson, Joyce E.

    2010-01-01

    The Black Hills area of western South Dakota has a history of damaging flash floods that have resulted primarily from exceptionally strong rain-producing thunderstorms. The best known example is the catastrophic storm system of June 9-10, 1972, which caused severe flooding in several major drainages near Rapid City and resulted in 238 deaths. More recently, severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding near Piedmont and Hermosa on August 17, 2007. Obtaining a thorough understanding of peak-flow characteristics for low-probability floods will require a comprehensive long-term approach involving (1) documentation of scientific information for extreme events such as these; (2) long-term collection of systematic peak-flow records; and (3) regional assessments of a wide variety of peak-flow information. To that end, the U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with the South Dakota Department of Transportation and National Weather Service to produce this report, which provides documentation regarding the August 17, 2007, storm and associated flooding and provides a context through examination of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area. The area affected by the August 17, 2007, storms and associated flooding generally was within the area affected by the larger storm of June 9-10, 1972. The maximum observed 2007 precipitation totals of between 10.00 and 10.50 inches occurred within about 2-3 hours in a small area about 5 miles west of Hermosa. The maximum documented precipitation amount in 1972 was 15.0 inches, and precipitation totals of 10.0 inches or more were documented for 34 locations within an area of about 76 square miles. A peak flow of less than 1 cubic foot per second occurred upstream from the 2007 storm extent for streamflow-gaging station 06404000 (Battle Creek near Keystone); whereas, the 1972 peak flow of 26,200 cubic feet per second was large, relative to the drainage area of only 58.6 square miles. Farther downstream along Battle Creek, a 2007

  8. Pond Hockey on Whitmore Lacus: the Formation of Ponds and Ethane Ice Deposits Following Storm Events on Titan

    Steckloff, Jordan; Soderblom, Jason M.

    2017-10-01

    Cassini ISS observations reveled regions, later identified as topographic low spots (Soderblom et al. 2014, DPS) on Saturn’s moon Titan become significantly darker (lower albedo) following storm events (Turtle et al. 2009, GRL; 2011, Science), suggesting pools of liquid hydrocarbon mixtures (predominantly methane-ethane-nitrogen). However, these dark ponds then significantly brighten (higher albedo relative to pre-storm albedo), before fading to their pre-storm albedos (Barnes et al. 2013 Planet. Sci; Soderblom et al. 2014, DPS). We interpret these data to be the result of ethane ice formation, which cools from evaporation of methane. The formation of ethane ices results from a unique sequence of thermophysical processes. Initially, the methane in the ternary mixture evaporates, cooling the pond. Nitrogen, dissolved primarily in the methane, exsolves, further cooling the liquid. However, because nitrogen is significantly more soluble in cooler methane-hydrocarbon mixtures, the relative concentration of nitrogen in the solution increases as it cools. This increased nitrogen fraction increases the density of the pond, as nitrogen is significantly more dense thane methane or ethane (pure ethane’s density is intermediate to that of methane and nitrogen). At around ~85 K the mixture is as dense as pure liquid ethane. Thus, further evaporative methane loss and cooling at the pond’s surface leads to a chemical stratification, with an increasingly ethane rich epilimnion (surface layer) overlying a methane rich hypolimnion (subsurface layer). Further evaporation of methane from the ethane-rich epilimnion drives its temperature and composition toward the methane-ethane-nitrogen liquidus curve, causing pure ethane ice to precipitate out of solution and settle to the bottom of the pool. This settling would obscure the ethane ice from Cassini VIMS and ISS, which would instead continue to appear as a dark pond on the surface. As the ethane precipitates out completely, a

  9. Storm impacts on a high energy sandy beach system, northwest Ireland: short (event) to long term (decadal) behaviour

    Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew; O'Connor, Marianne

    2017-04-01

    Long-term monitoring of beach dynamics is an important element in risk prevention and management of both natural and human resources at the coast. The predicted intensification in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude), partly associated with climate change, represents a pressing concern for coastal communities globally and has undoubtedly led to an improvement in available techniques and technologies for observation and analysis. Here we examine a high energy Atlantic beach system at Five Fingers strand (NW Ireland) to help understand hydrodynamic forcing on beach response under various wave energy scenarios. The system, which has been modally attuned to a large swell wave environment, periodically undergoes significant morphological changes over various spatial and temporal scales manifest in the development and movements of dynamic nearshore bars and a nearshore ebb-tide delta. A combination of field and laboratory techniques (GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) Instrumentation, Drone surveys) implemented from the shoreface to the beach, captures the response and evolution of the system over the short (event), medium (weeks to months) and long-term (multiyear) timescale. Numerical modelling of nearshore wave hydrodynamics (using SWAN wave simulation model) helps understanding wave forcing across shoreface area and is ran under a number of iterative time intervals. Here, we investigate the role of infrequent and sometimes extreme events in the system to understand the importance of clustering of storminess and the occurrence of single high-magnitude storm events that perturb the inlet-beach system and thus induce key morphodynamic changes. Preliminary results show that ultimately the configuration of the ebb-tide channel influences the geomorphic response of the system. In the short term, a storm induced erosion of the shoreface is observed, which also appears to lead to changes in the ebb-tide channel, and ultimately the welding of a nearshore bar

  10. Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; van der Wiel, Karin; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah F.; Uhe, Peter; Cullen, Heidi

    2018-02-01

    On 4-6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing Northern England and Southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5%-97.5% confidence interval of 5%-80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month.

  11. Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events

    C. André; D. Monfort; M. Bouzit; C. Vinchon

    2013-01-01

    There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist bet...

  12. POM Pulses: Characterizing the Physical and Chemical Properties of Particulate Organic Matter (POM) Mobilized by Large Storm Events and its Influence on Receiving Fluvial Systems

    Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Protokowicz, J.; Inamdar, S. P.; Kan, J.; Vargas, R.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme storm events have tremendous erosive energy which is capable of mobilizing vast amounts of material from watershed sources into fluvial systems. This complex mixture of sediment and particulate organic matter (POM) is a nutrient source, and has the potential to impact downstream water quality. The impact of POM on receiving aquatic systems can vary not only by the total amount exported but also by the various sources involved and the particle sizes of POM. This study examines the composition of POM in potential sources and within-event POM by: (1) determining the amount and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) that can be leached from coarse, medium and fine particle classes; (2) assessing the C and N content and isotopic character of within-event POM; and (3) coupling physical and chemical properties to evaluate storm event POM influence on stream water. Storm event POM samples and source sediments were collected from a forested headwater catchment (second order stream) in the Piedmont region of Maryland. Samples were sieved into three particle classes - coarse (2mm-1mm), medium (1mm-250µm) and fine (solid state event and source material. Future work will include examination of microbial communities associated with POM particle size classes. Physical size class separation of within-event POM exhibited differences in C:N ratios, δ15N composition, and extracted DOM lability. Smaller size classes exhibited lower C:N ratios, more enriched δ15N and more recalcitrant properties in leached DOM. Source material had varying C:N ratios and contributions to leached DOM. These results indicate that both source and size class strongly influence the POM contribution to fluvial systems during large storm events.

  13. Ptaquiloside from bracken in stream water at base flow and during storm events

    Clauson-Kaas, Frederik; Ramwell, Carmel; Hansen, Hans Chr. Bruun

    2016-01-01

    not decrease over the course of the event. In the stream, the throughfall contribution to PTA cannot be separated from a possible below-ground input from litter, rhizomes and soil. Catchment-specific factors such as the soil pH, topography, hydrology, and bracken coverage will evidently affect the level of PTA...... rainfall and PTA concentration in the stream, with a reproducible time lag of approx. 1 h from onset of rain to elevated concentrations, and returning rather quickly (about 2 h) to base flow concentration levels. The concentration of PTA behaved similar to an inert tracer (Cl(-)) in the pulse experiment...

  14. The Impacts of Episodic Storm and Flood Events on Carbon and Sediment Delivery to Gulf of Mexico Sediments

    Schreiner, K. M.; Carlin, J. A.; Sayers, L.; Swenson, J.

    2017-12-01

    Marine sediments are an important long-term reservoir for both recently fixed organic carbon (OC) and ancient rock derived OC, much of which is delivered by rivers. The ratio between these two sources of OC in turn regulates atmospheric levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide over geologic time, making this riverine delivery of OC, primarily carried by sediments, an important flux in the global carbon cycle. However, while the overall magnitude of these fluxes are relatively well known, it remains to be determined the importance of episodic events, like storms and floods, in the flux of OC from terrestrial to marine environments. Here, we present data from a 34 cm core collected from the Gulf of Mexico at a mid-shelf distal depocenter for the Brazos River in 2015, during a strong El Nino when that area of the country was experiencing 100-year flood events and anomalously high river flow. Based on analysis of the radioactive isotope 7Be, approximately the top 7-8 cm of the sediment in this core was deposited during this flood event. Both bulk elemental (C, N, and stable carbon isotopes) and chemical biomarker (lignin-phenol) data has been combined to provide information of the origin and chemistry of the OC in this core both before and during flooding. C:N and d13C indicate a mixture of marine-sourced and terrestrially-sourced OC throughout the length of the core with very little variation between the flood layer and deeper sediments. However, lignin-phenol concentrations are higher in flood-deposited sediment, indicating that this sediment is likely terrestrially-sourced. Lignin-phenol indicators of OC degradation state (Acid:Aldehyde ratios) indicate that flood sediment is fresher and less degraded than deeper sediments. Taken together, these results indicate that 1. Bulk analyses are not enough to determine OC source and the importance of flood events in OC cycling and 2. Episodic events like floods could have an oversized impact on OC storage in marine sediments.

  15. RadWorks Storm Shelter Design for Solar Particle Event Shielding

    Simon, Matthew A.; Cerro, Jeffrey; Clowdsley, Martha

    2013-01-01

    In order to enable long-duration human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit, the risks associated with exposure of astronaut crews to space radiation must be mitigated with practical and affordable solutions. The space radiation environment beyond the magnetosphere is primarily a combination of two types of radiation: galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). While mitigating GCR exposure remains an open issue, reducing astronaut exposure to SPEs is achievable through material shielding because they are made up primarily of medium-energy protons. In order to ensure astronaut safety for long durations beyond low-Earth orbit, SPE radiation exposure must be mitigated. However, the increasingly demanding spacecraft propulsive performance for these ambitious missions requires minimal mass and volume radiation shielding solutions which leverage available multi-functional habitat structures and logistics as much as possible. This paper describes the efforts of NASA's RadWorks Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Project to design minimal mass SPE radiation shelter concepts leveraging available resources. Discussion items include a description of the shelter trade space, the prioritization process used to identify the four primary shelter concepts chosen for maturation, a summary of each concept's design features, a description of the radiation analysis process, and an assessment of the parasitic mass of each concept.

  16. Evolution of Storm-time Subauroral Electric Fields: RCM Event Simulations

    Sazykin, S.; Spiro, R. W.; Wolf, R. A.; Toffoletto, F.; Baker, J.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.

    2012-12-01

    Subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) are regions of strongly-enhanced westward ExB plasma drift (poleward-directed electric fields) located just equatorward of the evening auroral oval. Several recently -installed HF (coherent scatter) radars in the SuperDARN chain at mid-latitudes present a novel opportunity for obtaining two-dimensional maps of ionospheric ExB flows at F-region altitudes that span several hours of the evening and nighttime subauroral ionosphere. These new and exciting observations of SAPS provide an opportunity and a challenge to coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere models. In this paper, we use the Rice Convection Model (RCM) to simulate several events where SAPS were observed by the mid-latitude SuperDARN chain. RCM frequently predicts the occurrence of SAPS in the subauroral evening MLT sector; the mechanism is essentially current closure on the dusk side where downward Birkeland currents (associated with the ion plasma sheet inner edge) map to a region of reduced ionospheric conductance just equatorward of the diffuse auroral precipitation (associated with the electron plasma sheet inner edge). We present detailed comparisons of model-computed ionospheric convection patterns with observations, with two goals in mind: (1) to analyze to what extent the observed appearance and time evolution of SAPS structures are driven by time variations of the cross polar cap potential drop (or, equivalently, the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field), and (2) to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the spatial extent and magnitude of SAPS structures.

  17. Near-Bed Monitoring of Suspended Sediment during a Major Flood Event Highlights Deficiencies in Existing Event-Loading Estimates

    Alistair Grinham

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Rates of fluvial sediment discharge are notoriously difficult to quantify, particularly during major flood events. Measurements are typically undertaken using event stations requiring large capital investment, and the high cost tends to reduce the spatial coverage of monitoring sites. This study aimed to characterise the near-bed suspended sediment dynamics during a major flood event using a low-cost approach. Monitoring nodes consisted of a total suspended sediment (TSS logger, a single stage sampler, and a time-lapse camera for a total cost of less than US$420. Seven nodes were deployed across an elevation gradient on the stream bank of Laidley Creek, Queensland, Australia, and two of these nodes successfully characterised the near-bed suspended sediment dynamics across a major flood event. Near-bed TSS concentrations were closely related to stream flow, with the contribution of suspended bed material dominating the total suspended load during peak flows. Observed TSS concentrations were orders of magnitude higher than historical monitoring data for this site collected using the State government event station. This difference was attributed to the event station pump inlet screening the suspended bed material prior to sample collection. The ‘first flush’ phenomenon was detected and attributed to a local resuspension of muddy crusts immediately upstream of the study site. This low-cost approach will provide an important addition to the existing monitoring of fluvial sediment discharge during flood events.

  18. The value of Doppler LiDAR systems to monitor turbulence intensity during storm events in order to enhance aviation safety in Iceland

    Yang, Shu; Nína Petersen, Guðrún; Finger, David C.

    2017-04-01

    Turbulence and wind shear are a major natural hazards for aviation safety in Iceland. The temporal and spatial scale of atmospheric turbulence is very dynamic, requiring an adequate method to detect and monitor turbulence with high resolution. The Doppler Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) system can provide continuous information about the wind field using the Doppler effect form emitted light signals. In this study, we use a Leosphere Windcube 200s LiDAR systems stationed near Reykjavik city Airport and at Keflavik International Airport, Iceland, to evaluate turbulence intensity by estimating eddy dissipation rate (EDR). For this purpose, we retrieved radial wind velocity observations from Velocity Azimuth Display (VAD) scans (360°scans at 15° and 75° elevation angle) to compute EDR. The method was used to monitor and characterize storm events in fall 2016 and the following winter. The preliminary result reveal that the LiDAR observations can detect and quantify atmospheric turbulence with high spatial and temporal resolution. This finding is an important step towards enhanced aviation safety in subpolar climate characterized by sever wind turbulence.

  19. Impacts of Extreme Space Weather Events on Power Grid Infrastructure: Physics-Based Modelling of Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (GICs) During Carrington-Class Geomagnetic Storms

    Henderson, M. G.; Bent, R.; Chen, Y.; Delzanno, G. L.; Jeffery, C. A.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.; Rivera, M. K.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.; Woodroffe, J. R.; Engel, M.

    2017-12-01

    Large geomagnetic storms can have devastating effects on power grids. The largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded - called the Carrington Event - occurred in 1859 and produced Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) strong enough to set fires in telegraph offices. It has been estimated that if such a storm occurred today, it would have devastating, long-lasting effects on the North American power transmission infrastructure. Acutely aware of this imminent threat, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) was recently instructed to establish requirements for transmission system performance during geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) events and, although the benchmarks adopted were based on the best available data at the time, they suffer from a severely limited physical understanding of the behavior of GMDs and the resulting GICs for strong events. To rectify these deficiencies, we are developing a first-of-its-kind data-informed modelling capability that will provide transformational understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for the most harmful intense localized GMDs and their impacts on real power transmission networks. This work is being conducted in two separate modes of operation: (1) using historical, well-observed large storm intervals for which robust data-assimilation can be performed, and (2) extending the modelling into a predictive realm in order to assess impacts of poorly and/or never-before observed Carrington-class events. Results of this work are expected to include a potential replacement for the current NERC benchmarking methodology and the development of mitigation strategies in real power grid networks. We report on progress to date and show some preliminary results of modeling large (but not yet extreme) events.

  20. Major dust events in Europe during marine isotope stage 5 (130–74 ka: a climatic interpretation of the "markers"

    D.-D. Rousseau

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available At present, major dust storms are occurring at mid-latitudes in the Middle East and Asia, as well as at low latitudes in Northern Africa and in Australia. Western Europe, though, does not experience such dramatic climate events, except for some African dust reaching it from the Sahara. This modern situation is of particular interest, in the context of future climate projections, since the present interglacial is usually interpreted, in this context, as an analog of the warm Eemian interval. European terrestrial records show, however, major dust events during the penultimate interglacial and early glacial. These events are easily observed in loess records by their whitish-color deposits, which lie above and below dark chernozem paleosols in Central European records of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 5 age. We describe here the base of the Dolni Vestonice (DV loess sequence, Czech Republic, as the reference of such records. The dust is deposited during intervals that are characterized by poor vegetation – manifested by high δ13C values and low magnetic susceptibility – while the fine sand and clay in the deposits shows grain sizes that are clearly different from the overlying pleniglacial loess deposits. Some of these dust events have been previously described as "Markers" or Marker Silts (MS by one of us (G. Kukla, and are dated at about 111–109 ka and 93–92 ka, with a third and last one slightly visible at about 75–73 ka. Other events correspond to the loess material of Kukla's cycles, and are described as eolian silts (ES; they are observed in the same DV sequence and are dated at about 106–105 ka, 88–86 ka, and 78.5–77 ka. These dates are determined by considering the OSL ages with their errors measured on the studied sequence, and the comparison with Greenland ice-core and European speleothem chronologies. The fine eolian deposits mentioned above, MS as well as ES, correspond to short events that lasted about 2 ka; they are

  1. Major cerebral events in Staphylococcus aureus infective endocarditis: is anticoagulant therapy safe?

    Rasmussen, Rasmus V; Snygg-Martin, Ulrika; Olaison, Lars

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To study the impact of anticoagulation on major cerebral events in patients with left-sided Staphylococcus aureus infective endocarditis (IE). METHODS: A prospective cohort study; the use of anticoagulation and the relation to major cerebral events was evaluated separately at onset...... of admission and during hospitalization. RESULTS: Overall, 70 out of 175 patients (40%; 95% CI: 33-47%) experienced major cerebral events during the course of the disease, cerebral ischaemic stroke occured in 59 patients (34%; 95% CI: 27-41%), cerebral infection in 23 patients (14%; 95% CI: 9...

  2. The Event Chain of Survival in the Context of Music Festivals: A Framework for Improving Outcomes at Major Planned Events.

    Lund, Adam; Turris, Sheila

    2017-08-01

    Despite the best efforts of event producers and on-site medical teams, there are sometimes serious illnesses, life-threatening injuries, and fatalities related to music festival attendance. Producers, clinicians, and researchers are actively seeking ways to reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with these events. After analyzing the available literature on music festival health and safety, several major themes emerged. Principally, stakeholder groups planning in isolation from one another (ie, in silos) create fragmentation, gaps, and overlap in plans for major planned events (MPEs). The authors hypothesized that one approach to minimizing this fragmentation may be to create a framework to "connect the dots," or join together the many silos of professionals responsible for safety, security, health, and emergency planning at MPEs. Adapted from the well-established literature regarding the management of cardiac arrests, both in and out of hospital, the "chain of survival" concept is applied to the disparate groups providing services that support event safety in the context of music festivals. The authors propose this framework for describing, understanding, coordinating and planning around the integration of safety, security, health, and emergency service for events. The adapted Event Chain of Survival contains six interdependent links, including: (1) event producers; (2) police and security; (3) festival health; (4) on-site medical services; (5) ambulance services; and (6) off-site medical services. The authors argue that adapting and applying this framework in the context of MPEs in general, and music festivals specifically, has the potential to break down the current disconnected approach to event safety, security, health, and emergency planning. It offers a means of shifting the focus from a purely reactive stance to a more proactive, collaborative, and integrated approach. Improving health outcomes for music festival attendees, reducing gaps in planning

  3. The structure of mid- and high-latitude ionosphere during September 1999 storm event obtained from GPS observations

    I. I. Shagimuratov

    Full Text Available TEC data, obtained from over 60 GPS stations, were used to study the ionospheric effects of the 12–16 September 1999 magnetic storm over Europe. The spatial and temporal changes of the ionosphere were analysed as a time series of TEC maps, which present 15 min averages of TEC. The data set consisting of GPS observations, collected by a dense network of European stations, with sampling rate of 30 s, enable the creation of TEC maps with high spatial and temporal resolution. The storm included the positive as well as the negative phase. The positive phase took place during the first storm day of 12 September 1999. The short-lived daytime TEC enhancement was observed at all latitudes. The maximal enhancement reached a factor of 1.3–1.5. On the second and third days, the negative phase of the storm developed. The TEC decrease was registered regardless of time of the day. The TEC depression exceeded 70% relative to quiet days. On the following days (15 and 16 September, a significant daytime enhancement of TEC was observed once again. The complex occurrence of the ionospheric storm was probably related to the features of development of the magnetic storm. We found out that during the storm the large and medium-scale irregularities developed in the high-latitude ionosphere. The multi-stations technique, employed to create TEC maps, was particularly successful while studying the mid-latitude ionospheric trough. We found out that the essential changes of TEC during the storm, which were registered at the auroral and sub-auroral ionosphere, were connected with the effect of the trough and its dynamics, which depends on geomagnetic activity.

    Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric disturbances; auroral ionosphere; mid-latitude ionosphere

  4. Analyzing post-wildfire erosional processes and topographic change using hydrologic monitoring and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry at the storm event scale

    Leeper, R. J.; Barth, N. C.; Gray, A. B.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-geomorphic response in recently burned watersheds is highly dependent on the timing and magnitude of subsequent rainstorms. Recent advancements in surveying and monitoring techniques using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry can support the rapid estimation of near cm-scale topographic response of headwater catchments (ha to km2). However, surface change due to shallow erosional processes such as sheetwash and rilling remain challenging to measure at this spatial extent and the storm event scale. To address this issue, we combined repeat UAV-SfM surveys with hydrologic monitoring techniques and field investigations to characterize post-wildfire erosional processes and topographic change on a storm-by-storm basis. The Las Lomas watershed ( 15 ha) burned in the 2016 San Gabriel Complex Fire along the front range of the San Gabriel Mountains, southern California. Surveys were conducted with a consumer grade UAV; twenty-six SfM control markers; two rain gages, and two pressure transducers were installed in the watershed. The initial SfM-derived point cloud generated from 422 photos contains 258 million points; the DEM has a resolution of 2.42 cm/pixel and a point density of 17.1 pts/cm2. Rills began forming on hillslopes and minor erosion occurred within the channel network during the first low intensity storms of the rainy season. Later more intense storms resulted in substantial geomorphic change. Hydrologic data indicate that during one of the intense storms total cumulative rainfall was 58.20 mm and peak 5-min intensity was 38.4 mm/hr. Poststorm field surveys revealed evidence of debris flows, flash flooding, erosion, and fluvial aggradation in the channel network, and rill growth and gully formation on hillslopes. Analyses of the SfM models indicate erosion dominated topographic change in steep channels and on hillslopes; aggradation dominated change in low gradient channels. A contrast of 5 cm exists between field

  5. The investigation of form and processes in the coastal zone under extreme storm events - the case study of Rethymno, Greece

    Afentoulis, Vasileios; Mohammadi, Bijan; Tsoukala, Vasiliki

    2017-04-01

    Coastal zone is a significant geographical and particular region, since it gathers a wide range of social-human's activities and appears to be a complex as well as fragile system of natural variables. Coastal communities are increasingly at risk from serious coastal hazards, such as shoreline erosion and flooding related to extreme hydro-meteorological events: storm surges, heavy precipitation, tsunamis and tides. In order to investigate the impact of these extreme events on the coastal zone, it is necessary to describe the driving mechanisms which contribute to its destabilization and more precisely the interaction between the wave forces and the transport of sediment. The aim of the present study is to examine the capability of coastal zone processes simulation under extreme wave events, using numerical models, in the coastal area of Rethymno, Greece. Rethymno city is one of the eleven case study areas of PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastal regions) project, an EU funded research project, which aims at developing adaptive risk management strategies for coastal communities focusing on extreme hydro-meteorological events, with a multidisciplinary approach integrating social, environmental and technical research and innovation so as to increase the resilience of coastal regions all over the world. Within this framework, three different numerical models have been used: the MIKE 21 - DHI, the XBeach model and a numerical formulation for sea bed evolution, developed by Afaf Bouharguane and Bijan Mohammadi (2013). For the determination of the wave and hydrodynamic conditions, as well as the assessment of the sediment transport components, the MIKE 21 SW and the MIKE 21 FM modules have been applied and the bathymetry of Rethymno is arranged into a 2D unstructured mesh. This method of digitalization was selected because of its ability to easily represent the complex geometry of the coastal zone. It allows smaller scale wave characteristics to be

  6. Climatology and Meteorological Evolution of Major Wildfire Events over the Northeast United States

    Joseph B. Pollina; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a spatial and temporal climatology of major wildfire events, defined as >100 acres burned (>40.47 ha, where 1 ha = 2.47 acre), in the northeast United States from 1999 to 2009 and the meteorological conditions associated with these events. The northeast United States is divided into two regions: region 1 is centered over the higher terrain of...

  7. Going for gold : Investigating the (non)sense of increased advertising around major sports events

    Gijsenberg, Maarten J.

    Major sports events draw unsurpassed media attention. Companies are motivated to increase their advertising investments around these events to reach large audiences in a short period. Is such an advertising surge actually beneficial though, or should companies avoid advertising in these periods

  8. High-resolution reconstruction of extreme storm events over the North Sea during the Late Holocene: inferences from aeolian sand influx in coastal mires, Western Denmark.

    Goslin, Jerome; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-04-01

    Possessing long and accurate archives of storm events worldwide is the key for a better understanding of the atmospheric patterns driving these events and of the response of the coastal systems to storms. To be adequately addressed, the ongoing and potential future changes in wind regimes (including in particular the frequency and magnitude of storm events) have to be replaced in the context of long-time records of past storminess, i.e. longer than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data which do not allow the calculation of reliable return periods. During the last decade, several Holocene storminess chronologies have been based on storm-traces left by aeolian processes within coastal lakes, mires and peat bogs, (e.g. Björck and Clemmensen, 2004; De Jong et al., 2006; Clemmensen et al., 2009; Nielsen et al.; 2016; Orme et al., 2016). These data have shown to adequately complement the records which can be derived from the study of records related to wave-induced processes including e.g. washover deposits. Previous works along the west coast of Jutland, Denmark have revealed four main periods of dune building during the last 4200 yrs (Clemmensen et al., 2001; 2009). These were shown to be in phase with periods of climate deterioration (cold periods) recognized elsewhere in Europe and the North Atlantic region and suggest periods of increased aeolian activity. Yet, doubts remain on whether these periods where characterized by several big short-lived storm events or rather by an overall increase in wind energy. This study aims at constructing a high-resolution (centennial to multi-decadal) history of past storminess over the North Sea for the last millenaries. Plurimeter sequences of peat and gyttja have been retrieved from two coastal mires and were analyzed for their sand content. The quartz grains were systematically counted within centimetric slices (Aeolian Sand Influx method, Björck & Clemmensen, 2004), while the palaeo-environmental context and

  9. Major stressful life events and other risk factors for first admission with mania

    Kessing, L.V.; Agerbo, E.; Mortensen, P.B.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether first admission with mania is associated with the occurrence of death in the family or with major stressful life events and to explore whether the associations change with age. METHODS: Case register study with linkage of the Danish Psychiatric Central Research...... was found on the association between life events and the first admission with mania, totally, or for men or women, separately regarding ageing. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of death in the family and the experience of major life events are associated with increased risk of first admission with bipolar...

  10. Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

    Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www

  11. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

  12. Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, and Recurrent Major Cardiovascular and Major Bleeding Events in 19 120 Patients With Recent Ischemic Stroke.

    Gonzalez-Valcarcel, Jaime; Sissani, Leila; Labreuche, Julien; Bousser, Marie-Germaine; Chamorro, Angel; Fisher, Marc; Ford, Ian; Fox, Kim M; Hennerici, Michael G; Mattle, Heinrich P; Rothwell, Peter M; Steg, Philippe Gabriel; Vicaut, Eric; Amarenco, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The presumed safety of paracetamol in high-cardiovascular risk patients has been questioned. We determined whether paracetamol or ibuprofen use is associated with major cardiovascular events (MACE) or major bleeding in 19 120 patients with recent ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack of mainly atherothrombotic origin included in the Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events of ischemic origin with terutroban in patients with a history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (PERFORM) trial. We performed 2 nested case-control analysis (2153 cases with MACE during trial follow-up and 4306 controls matched on Essen stroke risk score; 809 cases with major bleeding matched with 1616 controls) and a separate time-varying analysis. 12.3% were prescribed paracetamol and 2.5% ibuprofen. Median duration of treatment was 14 (interquartile range 5-145) days for paracetamol and 9 (5-30) days for ibuprofen. Paracetamol, but not ibuprofen, was associated with increased risk of MACE (odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.42) or a major bleeding (odds ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.26-2.03), with no impact of daily dose and duration of paracetamol treatment. Time-varying analysis found an increased risk of MACE with both paracetamol (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% CI 1.05-1.43) and ibuprofen (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% CI 1.06-2.03) and of major bleeding with paracetamol (hazard ratio 1.95, 95% CI 1.45-2.62). There was a weak and inconsistent signal for association between paracetamol or ibuprofen and MACE or major bleeding, which may be related to either a genuine but modest effect of these drugs or to residual confounding. http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN66157730. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Major stressful life events and other risk factors for first admission with mania

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Agerbo, Esben; Mortensen, Preben Bo

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether first admission with mania is associated with the occurrence of death in the family or with major stressful life events and to explore whether the associations change with age. METHODS: Case register study with linkage of the Danish Psychiatric Central Research ...... disorder. The susceptibility to major life stressors of inducing mania does not seem to change throughout life....

  14. Nuclear Security Systems and Measures for Major Public Events. Implementing Guide

    2012-01-01

    Terrorism remains a threat to international stability and security. High profile international and national major public events occur regularly, capturing great public interest and receiving intense media coverage. It is widely acknowledged that there is a substantial threat of a terrorist attack on major public events such as high profile political or economic summit meetings or major sporting contests. The threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism remains on the international security agenda. Nevertheless, to reduce this risk, the international community has made great progress in securing nuclear and other radioactive material that could otherwise be used in a terrorist act. This progress is contingent on the efforts of all States to adopt strong nuclear security systems and measures. There are large quantities of diverse radioactive material in existence, which are used in areas such as health, the environment, agriculture and industry. The hazards of this material vary according to composition and intensity. Additionally, the use of explosives in combination with this material can drastically enhance the impact of a criminal or terrorist act. If a criminal or terrorist group managed to detonate a so-called 'dirty' bomb in an urban area, the result could be mass panic, widespread radioactive contamination and major economic and social disruption. Major public events are seldom held in the same State or at the same location or even at the same venue. At the national level, the hosting of major public events with proper nuclear security arrangements can provide a foundation on which to build an enduring national framework for nuclear security; one that can exist long after the event. The organization of a major public event in which large numbers of people congregate presents complex security challenges for the State hosting such an event. Criminal or terrorist acts involving nuclear or other radioactive material at any major public event could result in

  15. Nuclear Security Systems and Measures for Major Public Events. Implementing Guide (Russian Edition)

    2014-01-01

    Terrorism remains a threat to international stability and security. High profile international and national major public events occur regularly, capturing great public interest and receiving intense media coverage. It is widely acknowledged that there is a substantial threat of a terrorist attack on major public events such as high profile political or economic summit meetings or major sporting contests. The threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism remains on the international security agenda. Nevertheless, to reduce this risk, the international community has made great progress in securing nuclear and other radioactive material that could otherwise be used in a terrorist act. This progress is contingent on the efforts of all States to adopt strong nuclear security systems and measures. There are large quantities of diverse radioactive material in existence, which are used in areas such as health, the environment, agriculture and industry. The hazards of this material vary according to composition and intensity. Additionally, the use of explosives in combination with this material can drastically enhance the impact of a criminal or terrorist act. If a criminal or terrorist group managed to detonate a so-called 'dirty' bomb in an urban area, the result could be mass panic, widespread radioactive contamination and major economic and social disruption. Major public events are seldom held in the same State or at the same location or even at the same venue. At the national level, the hosting of major public events with proper nuclear security arrangements can provide a foundation on which to build an enduring national framework for nuclear security; one that can exist long after the event. The organization of a major public event in which large numbers of people congregate presents complex security challenges for the State hosting such an event. Criminal or terrorist acts involving nuclear or other radioactive material at any major public event could result in

  16. Drained coastal peatlands: A potential nitrogen source to marine ecosystems under prolonged drought and heavy storm events-A microcosm experiment.

    Wang, Hongjun; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi; Flanagan, Neal

    2016-10-01

    Over the past several decades there has been a massive increase in coastal eutrophication, which is often caused by increased runoff input of nitrogen from landscape alterations. Peatlands, covering 3% of land area, have stored about 12-21% of global soil organic nitrogen (12-20Pg N) around rivers, lakes and coasts over millennia and are now often drained and farmed. Their huge nitrogen pools may be released by intensified climate driven hydrologic events-prolonged droughts followed by heavy storms-and later transported to marine ecosystems. In this study, we collected peat monoliths from drained, natural, and restored coastal peatlands in the Southeastern U.S., and conducted a microcosm experiment simulating coupled prolonged-drought and storm events to (1) test whether storms could trigger a pulse of nitrogen export from drought-stressed peatlands and (2) assess how differentially hydrologic managements through shifting plant communities affect nitrogen export by combining an experiment of nitrogen release from litter. During the drought phase, we observed a significant temporal variation in net nitrogen mineralization rate (NMR). NMR spiked in the third month and then decreased rapidly. This pattern indicates that drought duration significantly affects nitrogen mineralization in peat. NMR in the drained site reached up to 490±110kgha(-1)year(-1), about 5 times higher than in the restored site. After the 14-month drought phase, we simulated a heavy storm by bringing peat monoliths to saturation. In the discharge waters, concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen in the monoliths from the drained site (72.7±16.3mgL(-1)) was about ten times as high as from the restored site. Our results indicate that previously drained peatlands under prolonged drought are a potent source of nitrogen export. Moreover, drought-induced plant community shifts to herbaceous plants substantially raise nitrogen release with lasting effects by altering litter quality in peatlands

  17. Cognitive complexity of the medical record is a risk factor for major adverse events.

    Roberson, David; Connell, Michael; Dillis, Shay; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Gore, Rebecca; Heagerty, Elaina; Jenkins, Kathy; Ma, Lin; Maurer, Amy; Stephenson, Jessica; Schwartz, Margot

    2014-01-01

    Patients in tertiary care hospitals are more complex than in the past, but the implications of this are poorly understood as "patient complexity" has been difficult to quantify. We developed a tool, the Complexity Ruler, to quantify the amount of data (as bits) in the patient’s medical record. We designated the amount of data in the medical record as the cognitive complexity of the medical record (CCMR). We hypothesized that CCMR is a useful surrogate for true patient complexity and that higher CCMR correlates with risk of major adverse events. The Complexity Ruler was validated by comparing the measured CCMR with physician rankings of patient complexity on specific inpatient services. It was tested in a case-control model of all patients with major adverse events at a tertiary care pediatric hospital from 2005 to 2006. The main outcome measure was an externally reported major adverse event. We measured CCMR for 24 hours before the event, and we estimated lifetime CCMR. Above empirically derived cutoffs, 24-hour and lifetime CCMR were risk factors for major adverse events (odds ratios, 5.3 and 6.5, respectively). In a multivariate analysis, CCMR alone was essentially as predictive of risk as a model that started with 30-plus clinical factors. CCMR correlates with physician assessment of complexity and risk of adverse events. We hypothesize that increased CCMR increases the risk of physician cognitive overload. An automated version of the Complexity Ruler could allow identification of at-risk patients in real time.

  18. Major geological events and uranium metallogenesis in South-west China

    Zhang Chengjiang; Xu Zhengqi; Ni Shijun; Chen Youliang

    2012-01-01

    Uranium is widely distributed in South-west China, with all types but on a not-so-large scale. South-west China is located on the combining site of several large tectonic elements and every tectonic movement has different effects on different regions. To study and clarify the correlation between the major geological events in South-west China and the Uranium metallogenesis, comprehensive research and field investigation are made besides collecting a lot of materials. Through analysis and research on the major geological events in South-west China, the evolution of those e vents is basically clarified and the events closely related with uranium mineralization are determined. It is discovered that there are several ore-forming geologic events in the geological history of South-west China; almost every major tectonic movement cycle is accompanied with uranium metallogenesis, from Jinning Movement to Chengjiang Movement, to Hercynian Movement, to Indosinian Movement. to Yanshan Movement. to Himalayan movement. Even though every major tectonic cycle is accompanied with uranium mineralization, three major geological events are generally obviously related with uranium metallogenesis, i.e. the Rodinian supercontinent breakup even in Jinning-Chengjiang Period, Yanshan Movement and Himalayan movement, in which the first one is the process of uranium pre-enrichment and provides the source of uranium. Yanshan Movement and Himalayan movement are the important processes for mineralization, mainly the hydrothermal superimposed mineralization. (authors)

  19. Locating and mitigating risks to children associated with major sporting events

    Brackenridge, CH; Rhind, D; Palmer-Felgate, S

    2014-01-01

    Despite recent efforts to blend sport and human rights, activism for children's rights in sport has historically been marginalised. The positive 'social legacy' of sport events frequently masks more problematic issues, including child exploitation. We argue that harms to children in hosting communities of major sporting events (MSEs) should be a focus for both research and intervention since the plight of such children is currently a political blind spot. The article examines the evidence for...

  20. Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum During Cycle 23: Propagation from the Sun to the Earth and Effects

    Bocchialini, K.; Grison, B.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Régnier, S.; Zouganelis, I.

    2018-05-01

    Taking the 32 storm sudden commencements (SSCs) listed by the International Service of Geomagnetic Indices (ISGI) of the Observatory de l'Ebre during 2002 (solar activity maximum in Cycle 23) as a starting point, we performed a multi-criterion analysis based on observations (propagation time, velocity comparisons, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves) to associate them with solar sources, identified their effects in the interplanetary medium, and looked at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment. We find that 28 SSCs can be related to 44 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), 15 with a unique CME and 13 with a series of multiple CMEs, among which 19 (68%) involved halo CMEs. Twelve of the 19 fastest CMEs with speeds greater than 1000 km s-1 are halo CMEs. For the 44 CMEs, including 21 halo CMEs, the corresponding X-ray flare classes are: 3 X-class, 19 M-class, and 22 C-class flares. The probability for an SSC to occur is 75% if the CME is a halo CME. Among the 500, or even more, front-side, non-halo CMEs recorded in 2002, only 23 could be the source of an SSC, i.e. 5%. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification of their trajectories have been examined using joint white-light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The detection of long-lasting type IV bursts observed at metric-hectometric wavelengths is a very useful criterion for the CME-SSC events association. The events associated with the most depressed Dst values are also associated with type IV radio bursts. The four SSCs associated with a single shock at L1 correspond to four radio events exhibiting characteristics different from type IV radio bursts. The solar-wind structures at L1 after the 32 SSCs are 12 magnetic clouds (MCs), 6 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) without an MC structure, 4 miscellaneous structures, which cannot unambiguously be classified as ICMEs, 5 corotating or stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs), one CIR

  1. Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event - The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

    Gosling, J. T.; Asbridge, J. R.; Bame, S. J.; Feldman, W. C.; Zwickl, R. D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R. J.

    1981-01-01

    An ion velocity distribution function of the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event is obtained from data from the ISEE 2 and ISEE 3 experiments. The distribution function is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV. The ESP event studied (8/27/78) is superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. The observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient so that approximately 1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approximately 290 eV cubic centimeters.

  2. Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum during Cycle 23: Propagation and Effects from the Sun to the Earth.

    Bocchialini, K.; Grison, B.; Menvielle, M.; Chambodut, A.; Cornilleau-Wehrlin, N.; Fontaine, D.; Marchaudon, A.; Pick, M.; Pitout, F.; Schmieder, B.; Régnier, S.; Zouganelis, I.

    2017-12-01

    From the list of 32 SSCs over the year 2002, we performed a multi-criteria analysis based on propagation time, velocity comparison, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves to associate them with solar sources, identify their causes in the interplanetary medium and then look at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment to them. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification in their trajectory have been examined using joint white light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The structures at L_1 after the 32 SSCs are regarded as Magnetic Clouds (MCs), ICMEs without a MC structure, Miscellaneous structures, CIRs/SIRs, and shock-only events. In terms of geoeffectivity, generally CMEs with velocities at the Sun larger than 1000 km.s-1 have larger probabilities to trigger moderate or intense storms. The most geoeffective events are MCs, since 92% of them trigger moderate or intense storms. The geoeffective events trigger an increased and combined AKR and NTC wave activity in the magnetosphere, an enhanced convection in the ionosphere and a stronger response in the thermosphere.

  3. Survey of the incidence and effect of major life events on graduate medical education trainees

    Lars J. Grimm

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to assess the incidence of major life events during graduate medical education (GME training and to establish any associations with modifiable activities and career planning. Methods: The authors surveyed graduating GME trainees from their parent institution in June 2013. Demographic information (clinical department, gender, training duration and major life events (marriage, children, death/illness, home purchase, legal troubles, property loss were surveyed. Respondents were queried about the relationship between life events and career planning. A multivariable logistic regression model tested for associations. Results: A total of 53.2% (166/312 of graduates responded to the survey. 50% (83/166 of respondents were female. Major life events occurred in 96.4% (160/166 of respondents. Male trainees were more likely (56.1% [46/82] vs. 30.1% [25/83] to have a child during training (p=0.01. A total of 41.6% (69/166 of responders consciously engaged or avoided activities during GME training, while 31.9% (53/166 of responders reported that life events influenced their career plans. Trainees in lifestyle residencies (p=0.02, those who experienced the death or illness of a close associate (p=0.01, and those with legal troubles (p=0.04 were significantly more likely to consciously control life events. Conclusion: Major life events are very common and changed career plans in nearly a third of GME trainees. Furthermore, many trainees consciously avoided activities due to their responsibilities during training. GME training programs should closely assess the institutional support systems available to trainees during this difficult time.

  4. Identification of major cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes using primary care data.

    Pouwels, Koen Bernardus; Voorham, Jaco; Hak, Eelko; Denig, Petra

    2016-04-02

    Routine primary care data are increasingly being used for evaluation and research purposes but there are concerns about the completeness and accuracy of diagnoses and events captured in such databases. We evaluated how well patients with major cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be identified using primary care morbidity data and drug prescriptions. The study was conducted using data from 17,230 diabetes patients of the GIANTT database and Dutch Hospital Data register. To estimate the accuracy of the different measures, we analyzed the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) relative to hospitalizations and/or records with a diagnosis indicating major CVD, including ischaemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular events. Using primary care morbidity data, 43% of major CVD hospitalizations could be identified. Adding drug prescriptions to the search increased the sensitivity up to 94%. A proxy of at least one prescription of either a platelet aggregation inhibitor, vitamin k antagonist or nitrate could identify 85% of patients with a history of major CVD recorded in primary care, with an NPV of 97%. Using the same proxy, 57% of incident major CVD recorded in primary or hospital care could be identified, with an NPV of 99%. A substantial proportion of major CVD hospitalizations was not recorded in primary care morbidity data. Drug prescriptions can be used in addition to diagnosis codes to identify more patients with major CVD, and also to identify patients without a history of major CVD.

  5. Examining the influence of major life events as drivers of residential mobility and neighbourhood transitions

    Timothy Morris

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Residential mobility and internal migration have long been key foci of research across a range of disciplines. However, the analytical strategies adopted in many studies are unable to unpick the drivers of mobility in sufficient detail because of two issues prevalent within the literature: a lack of detailed information on the individual context of people's lives and a failure to apply longitudinal methods. Methods: Using detailed data from a UK birth cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, and a multilevel recurrent-event history analysis approach, this paper overcomes these two major limitations and presents a number of findings. Results: Most life events increase the likelihood of moving, even though there is little evidence that they precede upwards or downwards mobility into more or less deprived neighbourhoods. The findings also suggest that families living in poor homes and neighbourhoods are more likely to be stuck in place following certain negative life events than those in good environments. Conclusions: While broad demographic and socioeconomic characteristics reliably account for mobility patterns, the occurrence of life events and a person's attitudes towards their living environment are necessary for a full understanding of mobility patterns. Future studies should strive to account for such detailed data. Contribution: We demonstrate the important impact that a wide range of life events has on the mobility of families and provide evidence that studies unable to account for major life events likely do not suffer strong bias results through unobserved confounding.

  6. Nuclear Security Systems and Measures for Major Public Events. Implementing Guide (French Edition)

    2017-01-01

    This publication provides an overview, based on practical experience and lessons learned, for establishing nuclear security systems and measures for major public events. It covers technical and administrative nuclear security measures for developing the necessary organizational structure, developing plans, strategies and concepts of operations, and making arrangements for implementing the developed plans, strategies and concepts.

  7. Identification of major cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes using primary care data

    Pouwels, Koen Bernardus; Voorham, Jaco; Hak, Eelko; Denig, Petra

    2016-01-01

    Background: Routine primary care data are increasingly being used for evaluation and research purposes but there are concerns about the completeness and accuracy of diagnoses and events captured in such databases. We evaluated how well patients with major cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be

  8. Major stressful life events in adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis

    Nielsen, Nete Munk; Bager, Peter; Simonsen, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    It is unclear whether psychological stress is associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). We studied the association between major stressful life events and MS in a nationwide cohort study using death of a child or a spouse or marital dissolution as indicators of severe stress....

  9. Negative Emotionality and Disconstraint Influence PTSD Symptom Course via Exposure to New Major Adverse Life Events

    Sadeh, Naomi; Miller, Mark W.; Wolf, Erika J.; Harkness, Kate L.

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the factors that influence stability and change in chronic posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is important for improving clinical outcomes. Using a cross-lagged design, we analyzed the reciprocal effects of personality and PTSD symptoms over time and their effects on stress exposure in a sample of 222 trauma-exposed veterans (ages 23 – 68; 90.5% male). Personality functioning and PTSD were measured approximately 4 years apart, and self-reported exposure to major adverse life events during the interim was also assessed. Negative emotionality positively predicted future PTSD symptoms, and this effect was partially mediated by exposure to new events. Constraint (negatively) indirectly affected PTSD via its association with exposure to new events. There were no significant effects of positive emotionality nor did PTSD symptom severity exert influences on personality over time. Results indicate that high negative affect and disconstraint influence the course of PTSD symptoms by increasing exposure to stressful life events. PMID:25659969

  10. Early snowmelt events: detection, distribution, and significance in a major sub-arctic watershed

    Semmens, Kathryn Alese; Ramage, Joan; Bartsch, Annett; Liston, Glen E

    2013-01-01

    High latitude drainage basins are experiencing higher average temperatures, earlier snowmelt onset in spring, and an increase in rain on snow (ROS) events in winter, trends that climate models project into the future. Snowmelt-dominated basins are most sensitive to winter temperature increases that influence the frequency of ROS events and the timing and duration of snowmelt, resulting in changes to spring runoff. Of specific interest in this study are early melt events that occur in late winter preceding melt onset in the spring. The study focuses on satellite determination and characterization of these early melt events using the Yukon River Basin (Canada/USA) as a test domain. The timing of these events was estimated using data from passive (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer—EOS (AMSR-E)) and active (SeaWinds on Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT)) microwave remote sensors, employing detection algorithms for brightness temperature (AMSR-E) and radar backscatter (QuikSCAT). The satellite detected events were validated with ground station meteorological and hydrological data, and the spatial and temporal variability of the events across the entire river basin was characterized. Possible causative factors for the detected events, including ROS, fog, and positive air temperatures, were determined by comparing the timing of the events to parameters from SnowModel and National Centers for Environmental Prediction North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) outputs, and weather station data. All melt events coincided with above freezing temperatures, while a limited number corresponded to ROS (determined from SnowModel and ground data) and a majority to fog occurrence (determined from NARR). The results underscore the significant influence that warm air intrusions have on melt in some areas and demonstrate the large temporal and spatial variability over years and regions. The study provides a method for melt detection and a baseline from which to assess future change

  11. Incidence of major vascular events after cardiac surgery: impact of preoperative monitoring with troponin and electrocardiogram

    Sandra M Quiroga; Juan C Villar; Luz X, Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Recent demographic changes have led to an increased risk of major vascular events among patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. Troponin and electrocardiogram monitoring would further identify these major vascular events. Methods: we prospectively collected data on eligible patients (non-selected individuals aged 45 or older undergoing non-cardiac surgery under general or regional anesthesia in two hospitals in Bucaramanga, with expected length of stay longer than 24 hours) during a time-interrupted series,before and after postoperative diagnostic monitoring (blinded assessment of troponin T and electrocardiograms ignoring clinical data). For the period before the intervention (usual clinical care),two independent reviewers extracted clinical information from clinical histories (of all eligible patients from 3 randomly-selected months of 2005). For the period after diagnostic monitoring, we followed 100 consecutive eligible patients. Primary outcome was a composite of major vascular events within hospital, including myocardial infarction (defined as any troponin elevation associated with electrocardiographic changes suggesting ischemia, regardless of symptoms). Results: we included 534 clinical charts and 100 prospective surgical patients (mean age 62.2, SD 12.9 years; 56% women). The more frequent surgical procedures were orthopedics (26.8%) followed by abdominal (20.2%).The incidence of major vascular events recorded in clinical charts was 2.8%, compared with 7% among monitored patients (p=0,071). All four myocardial infarctions identified among the later group were silent. Conclusion: postoperative monitoring with troponin and electrocardiography identified a higher proportion of major vascular events, mainly silent myocardial infarctions.

  12. Study of the energy spectra of the major ion species in the ring-current region of the magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms

    Kistler, L.M.

    1987-01-01

    Using the University of Maryland/Max Planck Institute for Aeronomy Charge Energy Mass (CHEM) spectrometer on the AMPTE Charge Composition Explorer (CCE) spacecraft, the author examined the near-equatorial storm-time energy spectra of four major magnetospheric ions, H + , O + , He + , and He ++ over the energy range 1-300 keV/e in the L-range 3-6. The data were obtained during the main phase of all geomagnetic storms with minimum Dst less than -50 in the time period September 1984 to November 1985. During this period, the orbit of the CCE precessed such that the full range of local times was covered. When the spectra are organized by local time, certain features emerge. In particular, there is a dip in the spectra of all ions at 10-20 keV/e in the drawn-to-noon sector, while in the noon-to-dusk sector the proton distribution function drops off sharply below ∼5 keV. These spectra were compared with those predicted by a model of ion drift and loss in the magnetosphere. It was found that the spectra are most consistent with a Volland-Stern electric field with γ = 2 and with a rotation of the nominal dawn-to-dusk electric field eastward by two hours local time

  13. The health and socioeconomic impacts of major multi-sport events: systematic review (1978-2008)

    Thomas, Sian; Thomson, Hilary; Scott, John; Hamilton, Val; Hanlon, Phil; Morrison, David S; Bond, Lyndal

    2010-01-01

    Objective To assess the effects of major multi-sport events on health and socioeconomic determinants of health in the population of the city hosting the event. Design Systematic review. Data sources We searched the following sources without language restrictions for papers published between 1978 and 2008: Applied Social Science Index and Abstracts (ASSIA), British Humanities Index (BHI), Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Econlit database, Embase, Education Resources Information Center (ERIC) database, Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC) database, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), Medline, PreMedline, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts, Sportdiscus, Web of Knowledge, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts, and the grey literature. Review methods Studies of any design that assessed the health and socioeconomic impacts of major multi-sport events on the host population were included. We excluded studies that used exclusively estimated data rather than actual data, that investigated host population support for an event or media portrayals of host cities, or that described new physical infrastructure. Studies were selected and critically appraised by two independent reviewers. Results Fifty four studies were included. Study quality was poor, with 69% of studies using a repeat cross-sectional design and 85% of quantitative studies assessed as being below 2+ on the Health Development Agency appraisal scale, often because of a lack of comparison group. Five studies, each with a high risk of bias, reported health related outcomes, which were suicide, paediatric health service demand, presentations for asthma in children (two studies), and problems related to illicit drug use. Overall, the data did not indicate clear negative or positive health impacts of major multi-sport events on host populations. The most frequently reported outcomes were economic outcomes (18 studies). The outcomes used were similar enough to allow us to perform a

  14. The health and socioeconomic impacts of major multi-sport events: systematic review (1978-2008).

    McCartney, Gerry; Thomas, Sian; Thomson, Hilary; Scott, John; Hamilton, Val; Hanlon, Phil; Morrison, David S; Bond, Lyndal

    2010-05-20

    To assess the effects of major multi-sport events on health and socioeconomic determinants of health in the population of the city hosting the event. Systematic review. We searched the following sources without language restrictions for papers published between 1978 and 2008: Applied Social Science Index and Abstracts (ASSIA), British Humanities Index (BHI), Cochrane database of systematic reviews, Econlit database, Embase, Education Resources Information Center (ERIC) database, Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC) database, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), Medline, PreMedline, PsycINFO, Sociological Abstracts, Sportdiscus, Web of Knowledge, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts, and the grey literature. Review methods Studies of any design that assessed the health and socioeconomic impacts of major multi-sport events on the host population were included. We excluded studies that used exclusively estimated data rather than actual data, that investigated host population support for an event or media portrayals of host cities, or that described new physical infrastructure. Studies were selected and critically appraised by two independent reviewers. Fifty four studies were included. Study quality was poor, with 69% of studies using a repeat cross-sectional design and 85% of quantitative studies assessed as being below 2+ on the Health Development Agency appraisal scale, often because of a lack of comparison group. Five studies, each with a high risk of bias, reported health related outcomes, which were suicide, paediatric health service demand, presentations for asthma in children (two studies), and problems related to illicit drug use. Overall, the data did not indicate clear negative or positive health impacts of major multi-sport events on host populations. The most frequently reported outcomes were economic outcomes (18 studies). The outcomes used were similar enough to allow us to perform a narrative synthesis, but the overall

  15. Variabilities of mesospheric tides and equatorial electrojet strength during major stratospheric warming events

    S. Sridharan

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study demonstrates the relationship between the high latitude northern hemispheric major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW events and the reversal in the afternoon equatorial electrojet (EEJ, often called the counter-electrojet (CEJ, during the winter months of 1998–1999, 2001–2002, 2003–2004 and 2005–2006. As the EEJ current system is driven by tidal winds, an investigation of tidal variabilities in the MF radar observed zonal winds during the winters of 1998–1999 and 2005–2006 at 88 km over Tirunelveli, a site close to the magnetic equator, shows that there is an enhancement of semi-diurnal tidal amplitude during the days of a major SSW event and a suppression of the same immediately after the event. The significance of the present results lies in demonstrating the latitudinal coupling between the high latitude SSW phenomenon and the equatorial ionospheric current system with clear evidence for major SSW events influencing the day-to-day variability of the CEJ.

  16. Overview of results and perspectives from the Shoreham major common-cause initiating events study

    Joksimovich, V.; Orvis, D.D.; Paccione, R.J.

    1986-01-01

    This study represents the continuation of a large effort by LILCO to fully understand the potential hazards posed by future operation of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Stations (SNPS). The Shoreham Probabilistic Risk Assessment, a level 3 PRA without external events, provided a characterization of the accident sequences that could leave the core in a condition in which it would be vulnerable to severe damage if further mitigating actions were not taken. It estimated the frequency and magnitude of the potential radioactivity releases associated with such sequences. The study was limited to accident sequences initiated by so called internal events to the plant including a loss of offsite power. It also characterized the public risk associated with those accident sequences. The ''Major Common-Cause Initiating Events Study'' (MCCI) for the Shoreham plant was performed to obtain insights into the plant's susceptibility to, and inherent defenses against, certain MCCIs. Major common-cause initiating events are occurrences which have the potential to initiate a plant transient or LOCA and, also, damage one or more plant systems needed to mitigate the effects of a transient or LOCA. The scope of the MCCI study included detailed analyses of seismic events and fires through the severe core damage and bounding analyses of aircraft crashes, windstorms, turbine missiles and release of hazardous materials near the plant

  17. Prognostic table for predicting major cardiac events based on J-ACCESS investigation

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Nishimura, Tsunehiko

    2008-01-01

    The event risk of patients with coronary heart disease may be estimated by a large-scale prognostic database in a Japanese population. The aim of this study was to create a heart risk table for predicting the major cardiac event rate. Using the Japanese-assessment of cardiac event and survival study (J-ACCESS) database created by a prognostic investigation involving 117 hospitals and >4000 patients in Japan, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. The major event rate over a 3-year period that included cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and severe heart failure requiring hospitalization was predicted by the logistic regression equation. The algorithm for calculating the event rate was simplified for creating tables. Two tables were created to calculate cardiac risk by age, perfusion score category, and ejection fraction with and without the presence of diabetes. A relative risk table comparing age-matched control subjects was also made. When the simplified tables were compared with the results from the original logistic regression analysis, both risk values and relative risks agreed well (P<0.0001 for both). The Heart Risk Table was created for patients suspected of having ischemic heart disease and who underwent myocardial perfusion gated single-photon emission computed tomography. The validity of risk assessment using a J-ACCESS database should be validated in a future study. (author)

  18. Effect of darapladib on major coronary events after an acute coronary syndrome

    O'Donoghue, Michelle L; Braunwald, Eugene; White, Harvey D

    2014-01-01

    ]) at 868 sites in 36 countries. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomized to either once-daily darapladib (160 mg) or placebo on a background of guideline-recommended therapy. Patients were followed up for a median of 2.5 years between December 7, 2009, and December 6, 2013. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES......: The primary end point (major coronary events) was the composite of coronary heart disease (CHD) death, MI, or urgent coronary revascularization for myocardial ischemia. Kaplan-Meier event rates are reported at 3 years. RESULTS: During a median duration of 2.5 years, the primary end point occurred in 903...

  19. Association of Selected Antipsychotic Agents With Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events and Noncardiovascular Mortality in Elderly Persons

    Sahlberg, Marie; Holm, Ellen; Gislason, Gunnar H

    2015-01-01

    events and noncardiovascular mortality associated with individual APs (ziprasidone, olanzapine, risperidone, quetiapine, levomepromazine, chlorprothixen, flupentixol, and haloperidol) in Danish treatment-naïve patients aged ≥70 years. METHODS AND RESULTS: We followed all treatment-naïve Danish citizens...... of treatment, compared with risperidone, incidence rate ratios of major adverse cardiovascular events were higher with use of levomepromazine (3.80, 95% CI 3.43 to 4.21) and haloperidol (1.85, 95% CI 1.67 to 2.05) and lower for treatment with flupentixol (0.54, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.66), ziprasidone (0.31, 95% CI 0...

  20. Stressful life events preceding the onset of depression in Asian patients with major depressive disorder.

    Park, Subin; Hatim, Ahmad; Si, Tian-Mei; Jeon, Hong Jin; Srisurapanont, Manit; Bautista, Dianne; Liu, Shen-ing; Chua, Hong Choon; Hong, Jin Pyo

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have identified the significant role of stressful life events in the onset of depressive episodes. However, there is a paucity of cross-national studies on stressful life events that precede depression. We aimed to compare types of stressful life events associated with the onset of depressive episodes in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) in five Asian countries. A total of 507 outpatients with MDD were recruited in China (n = 114), South Korea (n = 101), Malaysia (n = 90), Thailand (n = 103) and Taiwan (n = 99). All patients were assessed with the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview and the List of Threatening Experiences. The prevalence of each type of stressful life events was calculated and compared between each country. The type of stressful life event that preceded the onset of a depressive episode differed between patients in China and Taiwan and those in South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. Patients in China and Taiwan were less likely to report interpersonal relationship problems and occupational/financial problems than patients in South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. Understanding the nature and basis of culturally determined susceptibilities to specific stressful life events is critical for establishing a policy of depression prevention and providing effective counseling services for depressed patients. © The Author(s) 2015.

  1. A comprehensive analysis of the geomagnetic storms occurred dur

    Essam Ghamry

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards. Egyptian geomagnetic observatories observed multiple geomagnetic storms during 18 February to 2 March 2014. During this period, four interplanetary shocks successively hit the Earth’s magnetosphere, leading to four geomagnetic storms. The storm onsets occurred on 18, 20, 23 and 27 February. A non-substorm Pi2 pulsation was observed on 26 February. This Pi2 pulsation was detected in Egyptian observatories (Misallat and Abu Simbel, Kakioka station in Japan and Carson City station in US with nearly identical waveforms. Van Allen Probe missions observed non-compressional Pc4 pulsations on the recovery phase of the third storm. This Pc4 event is may be likely attributed to the decay of the ring current in the recovery phase.

  2. 76 FR 38552 - Amendments to Regulations Regarding Major Life-Changing Events Affecting Income-Related Monthly...

    2011-07-01

    ... provides that major life-changing events include marriage, divorce, death of spouse, or other events..., we require evidence documenting the settlement and the reason(s) for the settlement. These changes... major life-changing events if the reasons for such loss are due to the ordinary risk of investment...

  3. Burden of Geriatric Events Among Older Adults Undergoing Major Cancer Surgery.

    Tan, Hung-Jui; Saliba, Debra; Kwan, Lorna; Moore, Alison A; Litwin, Mark S

    2016-04-10

    Most malignancies are diagnosed in older adults who are potentially susceptible to aging-related health conditions; however, the manifestation of geriatric syndromes during surgical cancer treatment is not well quantified. Accordingly, we sought to assess the prevalence and ramifications of geriatric events during major surgery for cancer. Using Nationwide Inpatient Sample data from 2009 to 2011, we examined hospital admissions for major cancer surgery among elderly patients (ie, age ≥ 65 years) and a referent group age 55 to 64 years. From these observations, we identified geriatric events that included delirium, dehydration, falls and fractures, failure to thrive, and pressure ulcers. We then estimated the collective prevalence of these events according to age, comorbidity, and cancer site and further explored their relationship with other hospital-based outcomes. Within a weighted sample of 939,150 patients, we identified at least one event in 9.2% of patients. Geriatric events were most common among patients age ≥ 75 years, with a Charlson comorbidity score ≥ 2, and who were undergoing surgery for cancer of the bladder, ovary, colon and/or rectum, pancreas, or stomach (P geriatric event had a greater likelihood of concurrent complications (odds ratio [OR], 3.73; 95% CI, 3.55 to 3.92), prolonged hospitalization (OR, 5.47; 95% CI, 5.16 to 5.80), incurring high cost (OR, 4.97; 95% CI, 4.58 to 5.39), inpatient mortality (OR, 3.22; 95% CI, 2.94 to 3.53), and a discharge disposition other than home (OR, 3.64; 95% CI, 3.46 to 3.84). Many older patients who receive cancer-directed surgery experience a geriatric event, particularly those who undergo major abdominal surgery. These events are linked to operative morbidity, prolonged hospitalization, and more expensive health care. As our population ages, efforts focused on addressing conditions and complications that are more common in older adults will be essential to delivering high-quality cancer care. © 2016 by

  4. Learning Storm

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  5. Individuals' quality of life linked to major life events, perceived social support, and personality traits.

    Pocnet, Cornelia; Antonietti, Jean-Philippe; Strippoli, Marie-Pierre F; Glaus, Jennifer; Preisig, Martin; Rossier, Jérôme

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between major recent life events that occurred during the last 5 years, social and personal resources, and subjective quality of life (QoL). A total of 1801 participants from the general population (CoLaus/PsyCoLaus study) completed the Life Events Questionnaire, the Social Support Questionnaire, the NEO Five-Factor Inventory Revised, and the Manchester Short Assessment of Quality of Life. Major life events were modestly associated with the QoL (about 5 % of the explained variance). However, QoL was significantly related to perceived social support and personality traits (about 37 % of the explained variance). Particularly, perceived social support, extraversion and conscientiousness personality dimensions were positively linked to life satisfaction, whereas a high level of neuroticism was negatively associated with QoL. This study highlights the negative but temporary association between critical events and QoL. However, a combination of high conscientiousness and extraversion, and positive social support may explain better variances for a high-perceived QoL.

  6. Evaluation of Life Events in Major Depression: Assessing Negative Emotional Bias.

    Girz, Laura; Driver-Linn, Erin; Miller, Gregory A; Deldin, Patricia J

    2017-05-01

    Overly negative appraisals of negative life events characterize depression but patterns of emotion bias associated with life events in depression are not well understood. The goal of this paper is to determine under which situations emotional responses are stronger than expected given life events and which emotions are biased. Depressed (n = 16) and non-depressed (n = 14) participants (mean age = 41.4 years) wrote about negative life events involving their own actions and inactions, and rated the current emotion elicited by those events. They also rated emotions elicited by someone else's actions and inactions. These ratings were compared with evaluations provided by a second, 'benchmark' group of non-depressed individuals (n = 20) in order to assess the magnitude and direction of possible biased emotional reactions in the two groups. Participants with depression reported greater anger and disgust than expected in response to both actions and inactions, whereas they reported greater guilt, shame, sadness, responsibility and fear than expected in response to inactions. Relative to non-depressed and benchmark participants, depressed participants were overly negative in the evaluation of their own life events, but not the life events of others. A standardized method for establishing emotional bias reveals a pattern of overly negative emotion only in depressed individuals' self-evaluations, and in particular with respect to anger and disgust, lending support to claims that major depressives' evaluations represent negative emotional bias and to clinical interventions that address this bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. “I think we need to get a better generator”: Household resilience to disruption to power supply during storm events

    Ghanem, Dana Abi; Mander, Sarah; Gough, Clair

    2016-01-01

    Electricity is becoming ever more central to the everyday practices of households. As the energy system decarbonises, it is likely that electricity will supply even more services, thereby increasing the dependence of communities on reliable electricity supply. In this situation, the risk of power outages during extreme weather events poses a serious challenge to the safety and wellbeing of communities. However, little is known of the capacity of households to manage normal day-to-day life in such circumstances. This paper focuses on the UK winter storms that occurred in February 2014, the result of which 80,000 homes were left without power and communities not reconnected for several days. We outline the impacts these power outages had on households, describing the challenges faced and the strategies adopted to alleviate impacts. This provides insight into everyday household-level resilience achieved through social and material elements that constitute everyday life. - Highlights: •The resilience of UK householders to power cuts due to storms was explored. •Resilience is achieved through modifying everyday electricity-related practices. •DNO's should explore how to use community networks to communicate with households.

  8. Use of virtual simulator for agent training in radiation protection actions in major events

    Passos, Claudio Azevedo; Mol, Antonio Carlos A.; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Lima, Fabio Almeida; Rocha, Tiago Lima

    2015-01-01

    With the proximity of the events of the Olympic Games, Brazil can become a great place of visibility for running dirty bombs or any other radiation mode proliferation by terrorists. Aware of these problems, the government and the organizations created managements of emergencies to ensure that these events elapse in an orderly and safe manner. The management of emergency situations at an event is a complex problem, which involves dynamic, unforeseen and unintended situations, emphasizing the potential complexity of the contexts in which organizations operate and, as a consequence, the people involved in the execution of multiple tasks from activities that require intense cognitive effort, are often challenged to adapt dynamically to maintain the productivity of the organization at satisfactory levels of performance usually impedes these people reflect on the results of their actions and learn from them. Therefore, it is extremely important to create tools that address the methods and techniques of Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) to assist in the previous training of the security agents, for example, detection and approaches of people who carry radioactive elements. One of the possible ways to accomplish this training is through the use of virtual reality. Virtual environments bring some advantages like reducing costs and risks. The aim of this paper is to present a virtual simulator to evaluate the use in training agents in major events. As a case study, the Maracana and the agents of the National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN) was chosen. (author)

  9. Use of virtual simulator for agent training in radiation protection actions in major events

    Passos, Claudio Azevedo, E-mail: cpassos.cp2@gmail.com [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (CCMN/NCE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Mol, Antonio Carlos A.; Carvalho, Paulo V.R., E-mail: mol@ien.gov.br, E-mail: paulov@ien.gov.br [nstituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Lima, Fabio Almeida; Rocha, Tiago Lima, E-mail: profantoniocarlosmol@gmail.com, E-mail: falmeida@unicarioca.edu.br, E-mail: tlrtiago@gmail.com [Centro Universitario Carioca (Unicarioca), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    With the proximity of the events of the Olympic Games, Brazil can become a great place of visibility for running dirty bombs or any other radiation mode proliferation by terrorists. Aware of these problems, the government and the organizations created managements of emergencies to ensure that these events elapse in an orderly and safe manner. The management of emergency situations at an event is a complex problem, which involves dynamic, unforeseen and unintended situations, emphasizing the potential complexity of the contexts in which organizations operate and, as a consequence, the people involved in the execution of multiple tasks from activities that require intense cognitive effort, are often challenged to adapt dynamically to maintain the productivity of the organization at satisfactory levels of performance usually impedes these people reflect on the results of their actions and learn from them. Therefore, it is extremely important to create tools that address the methods and techniques of Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) to assist in the previous training of the security agents, for example, detection and approaches of people who carry radioactive elements. One of the possible ways to accomplish this training is through the use of virtual reality. Virtual environments bring some advantages like reducing costs and risks. The aim of this paper is to present a virtual simulator to evaluate the use in training agents in major events. As a case study, the Maracana and the agents of the National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN) was chosen. (author)

  10. Simultaneous measurements from the Millstone Hill radar and the Active satellite during the SAID/SAR arc event of the March 1990 CEDAR storm

    M. Förster

    Full Text Available During a nearby passage of the Active satellite above the Millstone Hill radar on 21 March 1990 at local sunset, the satellite and the radar performed simultaneous measurements of upper ionospheric parameters in nearly the same spatial volume. For this purpose the radar carried out a special azimuth-elevation scan to track the satellite. Direct comparisons of radar data and in situ satellite measurements have been carried out quite rarely. In this case, the coincidence of co-ordinated measurements and active ionospheric-magnetospheric processes during an extended storm recovery phase presents a unique occasion resulting in a very valuable data set. The measurements show generally good agreement both during quiet prestorm and storm conditions and the combination of radar and satellite observations gives a more comprehensive picture of the physical processes involved. We find a close relationship between the rapid westward ion drift peak at subauroral latitudes (SAID event and the occurrence of a stable auroral red (SAR arc observed after sunset by an all-sky imager and reported in an earlier study of this event. The SAID electric field is caused by the penetration of energetic ions with energies between about 1 keV and 100 keV into the outer plasmasphere to a latitude equatorward of the extent of the plasmasheet electrons. Charge separation results in the observed polarisation field and the SAID. Unusually high molecular ion densities measured by the satellite at altitudes of 700-870 km at subauroral and auroral latitudes point on strong upward-directed ion acceleration processes and an intense neutral gas upwelling. These structures are collocated with a narrow trough in electron density and an electron temperature peak as observed simultaneously by the radar and the satellite probes.

    Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-magnetosphere interactions; plasma temperature and density; Magnetospheric physics (plasmasphere.

  11. Major life events: their personal meaning, resolution, and mental health significance.

    Reynolds, John R; Turner, R Jay

    2008-06-01

    Researchers have employed varying strategies in an effort to better understand variation in responses to stress. This article argues that crisis theory makes a useful contribution to these efforts, particularly when studying variable response to major life events that are of high threat potential. Regression analyses of depressive symptomatology, mastery, and self-esteem in a community sample of adults (n = 1,542) provide preliminary support for the central tenets of crisis theory that specify the conditions under which experienced events are minimally and maximally hazardous. The results also offer mixed support for the proposition that successfully resolved crises can even yield emotional and coping benefits. Longitudinal models and further development of survey-based measures for distinguishing the occurrence of a crisis and assessing the adequacy of its resolution are needed to more thoroughly test crisis theory.

  12. Can discrete event simulation be of use in modelling major depression?

    François Clément

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Depression is among the major contributors to worldwide disease burden and adequate modelling requires a framework designed to depict real world disease progression as well as its economic implications as closely as possible. Objectives In light of the specific characteristics associated with depression (multiple episodes at varying intervals, impact of disease history on course of illness, sociodemographic factors, our aim was to clarify to what extent "Discrete Event Simulation" (DES models provide methodological benefits in depicting disease evolution. Methods We conducted a comprehensive review of published Markov models in depression and identified potential limits to their methodology. A model based on DES principles was developed to investigate the benefits and drawbacks of this simulation method compared with Markov modelling techniques. Results The major drawback to Markov models is that they may not be suitable to tracking patients' disease history properly, unless the analyst defines multiple health states, which may lead to intractable situations. They are also too rigid to take into consideration multiple patient-specific sociodemographic characteristics in a single model. To do so would also require defining multiple health states which would render the analysis entirely too complex. We show that DES resolve these weaknesses and that its flexibility allow patients with differing attributes to move from one event to another in sequential order while simultaneously taking into account important risk factors such as age, gender, disease history and patients attitude towards treatment, together with any disease-related events (adverse events, suicide attempt etc.. Conclusion DES modelling appears to be an accurate, flexible and comprehensive means of depicting disease progression compared with conventional simulation methodologies. Its use in analysing recurrent and chronic diseases appears particularly useful

  13. Can discrete event simulation be of use in modelling major depression?

    Le Lay, Agathe; Despiegel, Nicolas; François, Clément; Duru, Gérard

    2006-12-05

    Depression is among the major contributors to worldwide disease burden and adequate modelling requires a framework designed to depict real world disease progression as well as its economic implications as closely as possible. In light of the specific characteristics associated with depression (multiple episodes at varying intervals, impact of disease history on course of illness, sociodemographic factors), our aim was to clarify to what extent "Discrete Event Simulation" (DES) models provide methodological benefits in depicting disease evolution. We conducted a comprehensive review of published Markov models in depression and identified potential limits to their methodology. A model based on DES principles was developed to investigate the benefits and drawbacks of this simulation method compared with Markov modelling techniques. The major drawback to Markov models is that they may not be suitable to tracking patients' disease history properly, unless the analyst defines multiple health states, which may lead to intractable situations. They are also too rigid to take into consideration multiple patient-specific sociodemographic characteristics in a single model. To do so would also require defining multiple health states which would render the analysis entirely too complex. We show that DES resolve these weaknesses and that its flexibility allow patients with differing attributes to move from one event to another in sequential order while simultaneously taking into account important risk factors such as age, gender, disease history and patients attitude towards treatment, together with any disease-related events (adverse events, suicide attempt etc.). DES modelling appears to be an accurate, flexible and comprehensive means of depicting disease progression compared with conventional simulation methodologies. Its use in analysing recurrent and chronic diseases appears particularly useful compared with Markov processes.

  14. Unsafe and violent behavior in commercials aired during televised major sporting events.

    Tamburro, Robert F; Gordon, Patricia L; D'Apolito, James P; Howard, Scott C

    2004-12-01

    Injuries are the leading cause of death in children, and media exposure seems to increase children's risk-taking behavior. Televised sports are commonly viewed by children. The objective of this study was to determine the proportion of commercials that depict violence or other unsafe behavior during major televised sporting events that are aired before 9:00 pm. We obtained a list of the 50 sports programs that were most highly rated by Nielsen Media Research and that were televised between September 1, 2001, and September 1, 2002. These 50 programs included Winter Olympics events (n = 15), National Football League (NFL) regular season games (n = 14), NFL playoff games (n = 10), Major League Baseball World Series and playoff games (n = 7), the NFL Super Bowl (n = 1), the National Basketball Association Western Conference Final Game (n = 1), the College Football Rose Bowl (n = 1), and the National Collegiate Athletic Association Basketball Championship game (n = 1). Two other events were reviewed as well: the final round of the Masters Golf Championship, because it was the only sporting event rated in the top 50 of the previous year that was not represented by a similar sporting event in the study year, and the Daytona 500 National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing race, because it was the only event rated among the top 75 of the study year that was not represented by a similar event (ie, there were no other golfing or auto racing events reviewed). These events were included because different sporting events may attract different viewers and different advertisements; thus, their inclusion provides a more comprehensive evaluation of the topic. For sporting events with >3 programs in the top 50 (NFL regular season games, NFL playoff games, Winter Olympic events, and Major League Baseball World Series), representative samples of events were assessed. Surrogate events were analyzed for programs that were aired after 9:00 PM (Eastern Time) to control for the reduced

  15. Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008 and Xynthia (2010 storm events

    C. André

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist between hazard characteristics and the level of damage incurred by residential buildings. To do so, data was collected at two levels: from lists of about 4000 damage records, 358 loss adjustment reports were consulted, constituting a detailed damage database. The results show that for flooded residential buildings, over 75% of reconstruction costs are associated with interior elements, with damage to structural components remaining very localised and negligible. Further analysis revealed a high scatter between costs and water depth, suggesting that uncertainty remains high in drawing up damage functions with insurance data alone. Due to the paper format of the loss adjustment reports, and the lack of harmonisation between their contents, the collection stage called for a considerable amount of work. For future events, establishing a standardised process for archiving damage information could significantly contribute to the production of such empirical damage functions. Nevertheless, complementary sources of data on hazards and asset vulnerability parameters will definitely still be necessary for damage modelling; multivariate approaches, crossing insurance data with external material, should also be investigated more deeply.

  16. Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events

    André, C.; Monfort, D.; Bouzit, M.; Vinchon, C.

    2013-08-01

    There are a number of methodological issues involved in assessing damage caused by natural hazards. The first is the lack of data, due to the rarity of events and the widely different circumstances in which they occur. Thus, historical data, albeit scarce, should not be neglected when seeking to build ex-ante risk management models. This article analyses the input of insurance data for two recent severe coastal storm events, to examine what causal relationships may exist between hazard characteristics and the level of damage incurred by residential buildings. To do so, data was collected at two levels: from lists of about 4000 damage records, 358 loss adjustment reports were consulted, constituting a detailed damage database. The results show that for flooded residential buildings, over 75% of reconstruction costs are associated with interior elements, with damage to structural components remaining very localised and negligible. Further analysis revealed a high scatter between costs and water depth, suggesting that uncertainty remains high in drawing up damage functions with insurance data alone. Due to the paper format of the loss adjustment reports, and the lack of harmonisation between their contents, the collection stage called for a considerable amount of work. For future events, establishing a standardised process for archiving damage information could significantly contribute to the production of such empirical damage functions. Nevertheless, complementary sources of data on hazards and asset vulnerability parameters will definitely still be necessary for damage modelling; multivariate approaches, crossing insurance data with external material, should also be investigated more deeply.

  17. Temporal and spatial variations in sand and dust storm events in East Asia from 2007 to 2016: Relationships with surface conditions and climate change.

    An, Linchang; Che, Huizheng; Xue, Min; Zhang, Tianhang; Wang, Hong; Wang, Yaqiang; Zhou, Chunhong; Zhao, Hujia; Gui, Ke; Zheng, Yu; Sun, Tianze; Liang, Yuanxin; Sun, Enwei; Zhang, Hengde; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2018-08-15

    We analyzed the frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms (SDSs) in East Asia from 2007 to 2016 using observational data from ground stations, numerical modeling, and vegetation indices obtained from both satellite and reanalysis data. The relationships of SDSs with surface conditions and the synoptic circulation pattern were also analyzed. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the number and intensity of SDS events recorded in spring during 2007 to 2016 showed a decreasing trend. The total number of spring SDSs decreased from at least ten events per year before 2011 to less than ten events per year after 2011. The overall average annual variation of the surface dust concentration in the main dust source regions decreased 33.24μg/m 3 (-1.75%) annually. The variation in the temperatures near and below the ground surface and the amount of precipitation and soil moisture all favored an improvement in vegetation coverage, which reduced the intensity and frequency of SDSs. The strong winds accompanying the influx of cold air from high latitudes showed a decreasing trend, leading to a decrease in the number of SDSs and playing a key role in the decadal decrease of SDSs. The decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex during study period was closely related to the decrease in the intensity and frequency of SDSs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Storm Identification, Tracking and Forecasting Using High-Resolution Images of Short-Range X-Band Radar

    Sajid Shah

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Rain nowcasting is an essential part of weather monitoring. It plays a vital role in human life, ranging from advanced warning systems to scheduling open air events and tourism. A nowcasting system can be divided into three fundamental steps, i.e., storm identification, tracking and nowcasting. The main contribution of this work is to propose procedures for each step of the rain nowcasting tool and to objectively evaluate the performances of every step, focusing on two-dimension data collected from short-range X-band radars installed in different parts of Italy. This work presents the solution of previously unsolved problems in storm identification: first, the selection of suitable thresholds for storm identification; second, the isolation of false merger (loosely-connected storms; and third, the identification of a high reflectivity sub-storm within a large storm. The storm tracking step of the existing tools, such as TITANand SCIT, use only up to two storm attributes, i.e., center of mass and area. It is possible to use more attributes for tracking. Furthermore, the contribution of each attribute in storm tracking is yet to be investigated. This paper presents a novel procedure called SALdEdA (structure, amplitude, location, eccentricity difference and areal difference for storm tracking. This work also presents the contribution of each component of SALdEdA in storm tracking. The second order exponential smoothing strategy is used for storm nowcasting, where the growth and decay of each variable of interest is considered to be linear. We evaluated the major steps of our method. The adopted techniques for automatic threshold calculation are assessed with a 97% goodness. False merger and sub-storms within a cluster of storms are successfully handled. Furthermore, the storm tracking procedure produced good results with an accuracy of 99.34% for convective events and 100% for stratiform events.

  19. Thermospheric mass density variations during geomagnetic storms and a prediction model based on the merging electric field

    Liu, R.; Lühr, H.; Doornbos, E.; Ma, S.Y.

    2010-01-01

    With the help of four years (2002–2005) of CHAMP accelerometer data we have investigated the dependence of low and mid latitude thermospheric density on the merging electric field, Em, during major magnetic storms. Altogether 30 intensive storm events (Dstmin

  20. Susceptibility of central Red Sea corals during a major bleaching event

    Furby, Kathryn A.

    2013-01-04

    A major coral bleaching event occurred in the central Red Sea near Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, in the summer of 2010, when the region experienced up to 10-11 degree heating weeks. We documented the susceptibility of various coral taxa to bleaching at eight reefs during the peak of this thermal stress. Oculinids and agaricids were most susceptible to bleaching, with up to 100 and 80 % of colonies of these families, respectively, bleaching at some reefs. In contrast, some families, such as mussids, pocilloporids, and pectinids showed low levels of bleaching (<20 % on average). We resurveyed the reefs 7 months later to estimate subsequent mortality. Mortality was highly variable among taxa, with some taxa showing evidence of full recovery and some (e. g., acroporids) apparently suffering nearly complete mortality. The unequal mortality among families resulted in significant change in community composition following the bleaching. Significant factors in the likelihood of coral bleaching during this event were depth of the reef and distance of the reef from shore. Shallow reefs and inshore reefs had a higher prevalence of bleaching. This bleaching event shows that Red Sea reefs are subject to the same increasing pressures that reefs face worldwide. This study provides a quantitative, genus-level assessment of the vulnerability of various coral groups from within the Red Sea to bleaching and estimates subsequent mortality. As such, it can provide valuable insights into the future for reef communities in the Red Sea. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  1. Family history predicts major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in young adults with psoriasis

    Egeberg, Alexander; Bruun, Louise E; Mallbris, Lotus

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Patients with psoriasis may have increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE), and a family history of CV disease (CVD) is an independent risk factor for MACE. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the risk of first-time MACE in patients with psoriasis with or without a fami....... The findings call for increased focus on a family history of CVD in CV risk assessment of patients with psoriasis.......BACKGROUND: Patients with psoriasis may have increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE), and a family history of CV disease (CVD) is an independent risk factor for MACE. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the risk of first-time MACE in patients with psoriasis with or without a family...... history of CVD. METHODS: Between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2011, we identified 2,722,375 individuals, including 25,774 and 4504 patients with mild and severe psoriasis, through administrative registers. Incidence rate ratios were estimated by Poisson regression. RESULTS: Mean baseline age was 26...

  2. The Combined Effects of Daily Stressors and Major Life Events on Daily Subjective Ages.

    Bellingtier, Jennifer A; Neupert, Shevaun D; Kotter-Grühn, Dana

    2017-07-01

    Stressors may be a contributing factor in determining how old an individual feels, looks, or would like to be. Currently, little research has been devoted to understanding the relationship between stressors and subjective age in older adults. We focus on the combined impact of major life-event stressors and daily stressors on multiple indicators of subjective age: felt age, ideal age, and look age. Furthermore, we examine the process by which daily stressors relate to subjective ages by testing whether positive affect, control, and negative affect mediate this relationship. Using a daily-diary design, the current study measured older adults' (60-96 years old) stressors, subjective ages, personal control, and affect. Felt, ideal, and look ages each demonstrated a unique pattern of interactions between daily stressors and major life-event stressors. Furthermore, our findings suggest that on the daily level, the relationship between stressors and felt age is mediated by negative affect but not by control and positive affect. Findings indicate the need to consider the broader contextual picture of stressors, as well as their differential impact on multiple indicators of subjective age. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Thromboembolic and Major Bleeding Events With Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin Use in a Real-World Setting.

    Russo-Alvarez, Giavanna; Martinez, Kathryn A; Valente, Megan; Bena, James; Hu, Bo; Luxenburg, Jennifer; Chaitoff, Alexander; Ituarte, Catherine; Brateanu, Andrei; Rothberg, Michael B

    2018-01-01

    Although randomized trials demonstrate the noninferiority of rivaroxaban compared with warfarin in the context of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF), little is known about how these drugs compare in practice. To assess the relative effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban versus warfarin in a large health system and to evaluate this association by time in therapeutic range (TTR). We conducted a retrospective cohort study with propensity matching in the Cleveland Clinic Health System. The study included patients initiated on warfarin or rivaroxaban for thromboembolic prevention in nonvalvular AF between January 2012 and July 2016. The main outcomes were thromboembolic events and major bleeds. Analyses were stratified by warfarin patients' TTR. The cohort consisted of 472 propensity-matched pairs. The mean age was 73.6 years (SD = 11.7), and the mean CHADS 2 score was 1.8. The median TTR for warfarin patients was 64%. In the propensity-matched analysis, there was no significant difference in thromboembolic or major bleeding events between groups. Among warfarin patients with a TTR warfarin and rivaroxaban were associated with similar safety and effectiveness, even among those with suboptimal therapeutic control. Individualized decision making, taking into account the nontherapeutic tradeoffs associated with these medications (eg, monitoring, half-life, cost) is warranted.

  4. Event rates, hospital utilization, and costs associated with major complications of diabetes: a multicountry comparative analysis.

    Philip M Clarke

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes imposes a substantial burden globally in terms of premature mortality, morbidity, and health care costs. Estimates of economic outcomes associated with diabetes are essential inputs to policy analyses aimed at prevention and treatment of diabetes. Our objective was to estimate and compare event rates, hospital utilization, and costs associated with major diabetes-related complications in high-, middle-, and low-income countries.Incidence and history of diabetes-related complications, hospital admissions, and length of stay were recorded in 11,140 patients with type 2 diabetes participating in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease (ADVANCE study (mean age at entry 66 y. The probability of hospital utilization and number of days in hospital for major events associated with coronary disease, cerebrovascular disease, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, and nephropathy were estimated for three regions (Asia, Eastern Europe, and Established Market Economies using multiple regression analysis. The resulting estimates of days spent in hospital were multiplied by regional estimates of the costs per hospital bed-day from the World Health Organization to compute annual acute and long-term costs associated with the different types of complications. To assist, comparability, costs are reported in international dollars (Int$, which represent a hypothetical currency that allows for the same quantities of goods or services to be purchased regardless of country, standardized on purchasing power in the United States. A cost calculator accompanying this paper enables the estimation of costs for individual countries and translation of these costs into local currency units. The probability of attending a hospital following an event was highest for heart failure (93%-96% across regions and lowest for nephropathy (15%-26%. The average numbers of days in hospital given at least one admission were greatest for stroke (17-32 d across

  5. Core discrete event simulation model for the evaluation of health care technologies in major depressive disorder.

    Vataire, Anne-Lise; Aballéa, Samuel; Antonanzas, Fernando; Roijen, Leona Hakkaart-van; Lam, Raymond W; McCrone, Paul; Persson, Ulf; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-03-01

    A review of existing economic models in major depressive disorder (MDD) highlighted the need for models with longer time horizons that also account for heterogeneity in treatment pathways between patients. A core discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate health and cost outcomes associated with alternative treatment strategies. This model simulated short- and long-term clinical events (partial response, remission, relapse, recovery, and recurrence), adverse events, and treatment changes (titration, switch, addition, and discontinuation) over up to 5 years. Several treatment pathways were defined on the basis of fictitious antidepressants with three levels of efficacy, tolerability, and price (low, medium, and high) from first line to third line. The model was populated with input data from the literature for the UK setting. Model outputs include time in different health states, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs from National Health Service and societal perspectives. The codes are open source. Predicted costs and QALYs from this model are within the range of results from previous economic evaluations. The largest cost components from the payer perspective were physician visits and hospitalizations. Key parameters driving the predicted costs and QALYs were utility values, effectiveness, and frequency of physician visits. Differences in QALYs and costs between two strategies with different effectiveness increased approximately twofold when the time horizon increased from 1 to 5 years. The discrete event simulation model can provide a more comprehensive evaluation of different therapeutic options in MDD, compared with existing Markov models, and can be used to compare a wide range of health care technologies in various groups of patients with MDD. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. An operational integrated short-term warning solution for solar radiation storms: introducing the Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) system

    Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Georgoulis, Manolis; Tziotziou, Kostas; Jiggens, Piers; Hilgers, Alain

    2015-04-01

    We present a novel integrated prediction system, of both solar flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) events, which is in place to provide short-term warnings for hazardous solar radiation storms. FORSPEF system provides forecasting of solar eruptive events, such as solar flares with a projection to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (occurrence and velocity) and the likelihood of occurrence of a SEP event. It also provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual solar flare and CME near real-time alerts, as well as SEP characteristics (peak flux, fluence, rise time, duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of solar flares relies on a morphological method which is based on the sophisticated derivation of the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff) of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events a new reductive statistical method has been implemented based on a newly constructed database of solar flares, CMEs and SEP events that covers a large time span from 1984-2013. The method is based on flare location (longitude), flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), and the occurrence (or not) of a CME. Warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The warning time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective warning time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes. We discuss the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on the Sun and the interplanetary space, while the combined usage of solar flare and SEP forecasting methods upgrades FORSPEF to an integrated forecasting solution. This

  7. Great magnetic storms

    Tsurutani, B.T.; Yen Te Lee; Tang, F.; Gonzalez, W.D.

    1992-01-01

    The five largest magnetic storms that occurred between 1971 and 1986 are studied to determine their solar and interplanetary causes. All of the events are found to be associated with high speed solar wind streams led by collisionless shocks. The high speed streams are clearly related to identifiable solar flares. It is found that (1) it is the extreme values of the southward interplanetary magnetic fields rather than solar wind speeds that are the primary causes of great magnetic storms, (2) shocked and draped sheath fields preceding the driver gas (magnetic cloud) are at least as effective in causing the onset of great magnetic storms (3 of 5 events ) as the strong fields within the driver gas itself, and (3) precursor southward fields ahead of the high speed streams allow the shock compression mechanism (item 2) to be particularly geoeffective

  8. STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL USER'S MANUAL VERSION 5.0

    The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. SWMM was first developed in 1971 and has undergone several major upgrade...

  9. Risk prediction models for major adverse cardiac event (MACE) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI): A review

    Manan, Norhafizah A.; Abidin, Basir

    2015-02-01

    Five percent of patients who went through Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI) experienced Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) after PCI procedure. Risk prediction of MACE following a PCI procedure therefore is helpful. This work describes a review of such prediction models currently in use. Literature search was done on PubMed and SCOPUS database. Thirty literatures were found but only 4 studies were chosen based on the data used, design, and outcome of the study. Particular emphasis was given and commented on the study design, population, sample size, modeling method, predictors, outcomes, discrimination and calibration of the model. All the models had acceptable discrimination ability (C-statistics >0.7) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lameshow P-value >0.05). Most common model used was multivariate logistic regression and most popular predictor was age.

  10. Experience of major life events during childhood and development of obesity in adulthood

    Petersen, Jindong Ding; Heitmann, B. L.; Kyle, R.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The etiology of adult obesity is still poorly understood, even if often simply attributed to too much food and too little exercise. A few studies have suggested that adverse psychological factors may predispose the development of adult obesity among normal weight children Aims The aim...... of this study was to examine if separation from parents, parental loss and living in a "children's home" during childhood could be associated with development of adult obesity Key Methods: A total of 146 complete adult twin pairs discordant for BMI (one had a normal BMI and the co-twin a BMI > 30 kg/m) were...... separation from mother and paternal death was related to less discordance. However, none of these differences were significant. Conclusion: The present study did not demonstrate independent effects of major life events during childhood and development of obesity in adulthood....

  11. Male Patient Visits to the Emergency Department Decline During the Play of Major Sporting Events

    Jerrard, David A

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To study whether emergency department (ED visits by male patients wane simultaneously with the play of scheduled professional and college sports events.METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis looked at ED male patient registration rates during a time block lasting from two hours before, during, and two hours after the play of professional football games (Monday night, Sundays, post-season play, major league baseball, and a Division I college football and basketball team, respectively. These registration rates were compared to rates at similar times on similar days of the week during the year devoid of a major sporting contest. Games were assumed to have a play time of three hours. Data was collected from April 2000 through March 2003 at an urban academic ED seeing 33,000 male patients above the age of 18 years annually.RESULTS: A total of 782 games were identified and used for purposes of the study. Professional football game dates had a mean of 17.9 males (95% confidence interval [CI] 17.4-18.4 registering vs. 26.8 males (95% CI 25.9-27.6 on non-game days. A registration rate for major league baseball was 18.4 patients (95% CI 17.6-18.4. The mean for registration on comparable non-game days was 23.9 patients (95% CI 22.8-24.3. For the regional Division I college football team, the mean number of patients registering on game days and non-game days was 21.7 (95% CI 20.9-22.4 and 23.4 (95% CI 22.9-23.7, respectively. Division I college basketball play for game and non-game days had mean rates of registration of 14.5 (95% CI 13.9-15.1 and 15.5 (95% CI 15.1-15.9 patients, respectively. For all sports dates collectively, a comparison of two means yielded a mean of 18.2 patients (95% CI 17.4-18.8 registering during the study hours on game days vs. 23.3 patients (95% CI 22.0-23.7 on non-game days. The mean difference was 5.1 patients (95% CI 3.7 to 7.0 with p < .000074.CONCLUSION: Male patient visits to the ED decline during major sporting

  12. Left atrial enlargement increases the risk of major adverse cardiac events independent of coronary vasodilator capacity

    Koh, Angela S. [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Division of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore (Singapore); Murthy, Venkatesh L.; Sitek, Arkadiusz; Gayed, Peter; Bruyere, John; Di Carli, Marcelo F. [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Division of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Wu, Justina [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, and the Noninvasive Cardiovascular Imaging Program, Departments of Medicine (Cardiology) and Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Dorbala, Sharmila [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Division of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Department of Radiology and the Division of Cardiology, Noninvasive Cardiovascular Imaging Section, Boston, MA (United States)

    2015-09-15

    Longstanding uncontrolled atherogenic risk factors may contribute to left atrial (LA) hypertension, LA enlargement (LAE) and coronary vascular dysfunction. Together they may better identify risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that chronic LA hypertension as assessed by LAE modifies the relationship between coronary vascular function and MACE. In 508 unselected subjects with a normal clinical {sup 82}Rb PET/CT, ejection fraction ≥40 %, no prior coronary artery disease, valve disease or atrial fibrillation, LAE was determined based on LA volumes estimated from the hybrid perfusion and CT transmission scan images and indexed to body surface area. Absolute myocardial blood flow and global coronary flow reserve (CFR) were calculated. Subjects were systematically followed-up for the primary end-point - MACE - a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for heart failure, stroke, coronary artery disease progression or revascularization. During a median follow-up of 862 days, 65 of the subjects experienced a composite event. Compared with subjects with normal LA size, subjects with LAE showed significantly lower CFR (2.25 ± 0.83 vs. 1.95 ± 0.80, p = 0.01). LAE independently and incrementally predicted MACE even after accounting for clinical risk factors, medication use, stress left ventricular ejection fraction, stress left ventricular end-diastolic volume index and CFR (chi-squared statistic increased from 30.9 to 48.3; p = 0.001). Among subjects with normal CFR, those with LAE had significantly worse event-free survival (risk adjusted HR 5.4, 95 % CI 2.3 - 12.8, p < 0.0001). LAE and reduced CFR are related but distinct cardiovascular adaptations to atherogenic risk factors. LAE is a risk marker for MACE independent of clinical factors and left ventricular volumes; individuals with LAE may be at risk of MACE despite normal coronary vascular function. (orig.)

  13. Stress Echocardiography and Major Cardiac Events in Patients with Normal Exercise Test

    Calasans, Flávia Ricci; Santos, Bruno Fernandes de Oliveira; Silveira, Débora Consuelo Rocha; de Araújo, Ana Carla Pereira; Melo, Luiza Dantas; Barreto-Filho, José Augusto; Sousa, Antônio Carlos Sobral; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes

    2013-01-01

    Background Exercise test (ET) is the preferred initial noninvasive test for the diagnosis and risk stratification of coronary artery disease (CAD), however, its lower sensitivity may fail to identify patients at greater risk of adverse events. Objective To assess the value of stress echocardiography (SE) for predicting all-cause mortality and major cardiac events (MACE) in patients with intermediate pretest probability of CAD and a normal ET. Methods 397 patients with intermediate CAD pretest probability, estimated by the Morise score, and normal ET who underwent SE were studied. The patients were divided into two groups according to the absence (G1) or presence (G2) of myocardial ischemia on SE .End points evaluated were all-cause mortality and MACE, defined as cardiac death and nonfatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Results G1 group was comprised of 329 (82.8%) patients. The mean age of the patients was 57.37 ± 11 years and 44.1% were male. During a mean follow-up of 75.94 ± 17.24 months, 13 patients died, three of them due to cardiac causes, and 13 patients suffered nonfatal AMI. Myocardial ischemia remained an independent predictor of MACE (HR 2.49; [CI] 95% 1.74-3.58). The independent predictors for all-cause mortality were male gender (HR 9.83; [CI] 95% 2.15-44.97) and age over 60 years (HR 4.57; [CI] 95% 1.39-15.23). Conclusion Positive SE for myocardial ischemia is a predictor of MACE in the studied sample, which helps to identify a subgroup of patients at higher risk of events despite having normal ET. PMID:23765384

  14. South Asian Ethnicity as a Risk Factor for Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events after Renal Transplantation

    Vangala, Sai K.; Silver, Samuel A.; Wong, Steven C.W.; Huang, Michael; Rapi, Lindita; Nash, Michelle M.; Zaltzman, Jeffrey S.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives South Asians (SAs) comprise 25% of all Canadian visible minorities. SAs constitute a group at high risk for cardiovascular disease in the general population, but the risk in SA kidney transplant recipients has never been studied. Design, setting, participants, & measurements In a cohort study of 864 kidney recipients transplanted from 1998 to 2007 and followed to June 2009, we identified risk factors including ethnicity associated with major cardiac events (MACEs, a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary intervention, and cardiac death) within and beyond 3 months after transplant. Kaplan-Meier methodology and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to determine risk factors for MACEs. Results There was no difference among SAs (n = 139), whites (n = 550), blacks (n = 65), or East Asians (n = 110) in baseline risk, including pre-existing cardiac disease. Post-transplant MACE rate in SAs was 4.4/100 patient-years compared with 1.31, 1.16, and 1.61/100 patient-years in whites, blacks, and East Asians, respectively (P diabetes, systolic BP, and prior cardiac disease. SAs also experienced more MACEs within 3 months after transplant compared with whites (P < 0.0001), blacks (P = 0.04), and East Asians (P = 0.006). However, graft and patient survival was similar to other groups. Conclusions SA ethnicity is an independent risk factor for post-transplant cardiac events. Further study of this high-risk group is warranted. PMID:20884776

  15. Quality of life and mortality assessment in patients with major cardiac events in the postoperative period.

    Abelha, Fernando José; Botelho, Miguela; Fernandes, Vera; Barros, Henrique

    2010-01-01

    Cardiovascular complications in the postoperative period are associated with high mortality and morbidity. Few studies have assessed the degree of dependence in these patients and their perception of health. The objective of this study was to assess the mortality and the quality of life in patients who developed major cardiac events (MCE) in the postoperative period. Retrospective study carried out in a Surgical Intensive Care Unit (SICU), between March 2006 and March 2008. The patients were assessed regarding the occurrence of CE. Six months after the hospital discharge, the Short-Form-36 (SF-36) questionnaire was filled out and dependence was assessed in relation to activities of daily living (ADL). The comparisons between independent groups of patients were carried out using Student's t test. The comparison between each variable and the occurrence of CE was carried out by logistic regression and included all patients. Of the 1,280 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 26 (2%) developed MCE. The univariate analysis identified as independent determinants for the development of major cardiac events: ASA physical status, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart disease and score of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). The six-month mortality after the SICU discharge was 35%. Of the 17 surviving patients, 13 completed the questionnaires. Thirty-one percent of them reported that their general health was better on the day they answered the questionnaire, when compared to 12 months before. Sixty-nine percent of the patients were dependent in instrumental ADL e 15% in personal ADL. The development of MCE has a significant impact on the duration of hospital stay and mortality rates. Six months after the discharge from the SICU, more than 50% of the patients were dependent in at least one instrumental ADL. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  16. Interplanetary ions during an energetic storm particle event: The distribution function from solar wind thermal energies to 1.6 MeV

    Gosling, J.T.; Asbridge, J.R.; Bame, S.J.; Feldman, W.C.; Zwickl, R.D.; Paschmann, G.; Sckopke, N.; Hynds, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Data from the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory/Max-Planck-Institut fast plasma experiment on Isee 2 have been combined with data from the European Space Agency/Imperial College/Space Research Laboratory low-energy proton experiment on Isee 3 to obtain for the first time an ion velocity distribution function f(v) extending from solar wind energies (-1 keV) to 1.6 MeV during the postshock phase of an energetic storm particle (ESP) event. This study reveals that f(v) of the ESP population is roughly isotropic in the solar wind frame from solar wind thermal energies out to 1.6 MeV. Emerging smoothly out of the solar wind thermal distribution, the ESP f(v) initially falls with increasing energy as E/sup -2.4/ in the solar wind frame. Above about 40 keV no single power law exponent adequately describes the energy dependence of f(v) in the solar wind frame. Above approx.200 keV in both the spacecraft frame and the solar wind frame, f(v) can be described by an exponential in speed (f(v)proportionale/sup -v/v//sub o/) with v/sub o/ = 1.05 x 10 8 cm s -1 . The ESP event studied (August 27, 1978) was superposed upon a more energetic particle event which was predominantly field-aligned and which was probably of solar origin. Our observations suggest that the ESP population is accelerated directly out of the solar wind thermal population or its quiescent suprathermal tail by a stochastic process associated with the shock wave disturbance. The acceleration mechanism is sufficiently efficient that approx.1% of the solar wind population is accelerated to suprathermal energies. These suprathermal particles have an energy density of approx.290 eV cm -3

  17. Managing the Organizational and Cultural Precursors to Major Events — Recognising and Addressing Complexity

    Taylor, R. H.; Carhart, N.; May, J.; Wijk, L. G. A. van

    2016-01-01

    Research at the University of Bristol, Safety Systems Research Centre has drawn out the key organizational and cultural precursors leading to major events in several industries (nuclear, petrochemical, transport and major civil engineering projects). It has shown that these are strikingly similar. The research built on preliminary work reported to the IAEA in 2004. Organizational and cultural findings contributing to each event were assembled from the published reports for twelve events and grouped under eight generic headings. These were: 1. leadership issues; 2. ‘local’ operational attitudes and behaviours (operational ‘culture’); 3. the impact of the business environment (often commercial and budgetary pressures); 4. oversight and scrutiny; 5. competence and training (at all levels); 6. risk assessment and risk management (also at all levels); 7. organizational learning; 8. communication issues. From the findings, sets of ‘Expectations’ were then developed as statements of good practice, which if recognised and implemented, should enable organizations to build stronger defences against the occurrence of future events. To probe operational reality, these were reformulated and developed into sets of draft ‘penetrating’ questions which explore whether ‘reality aligns with expectation’. Initial work has been carried out to refine some of these expectations and question sets by working with industry and further work is planned. The questions can be used by both duty holders and regulators to assess the vulnerability of organizations (‘condition monitoring’). Examples will be given in the presentation and full paper. To enable organizations to address these often neglected factors, new tools are being developed that can be employed to address the risks systematically. This might be regarded as analogous to the use of systematic processes (e.g., fault and event trees) to assess risks arising from engineering and human factors-related issues. An

  18. Impacts on coralligenous outcrop biodiversity of a dramatic coastal storm.

    Núria Teixidó

    Full Text Available Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006-2008 and after the impact (2009-2010 at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change.

  19. Spatial interpolation of precipitation in a dense gauge network for monsoon storm events in the southwestern United States

    Garcia, Matthew; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Goodrich, David C.

    2008-05-01

    Inaccuracy in spatially distributed precipitation fields can contribute significantly to the uncertainty of hydrological states and fluxes estimated from land surface models. This paper examines the results of selected interpolation methods for both convective and mixed/stratiform events that occurred during the North American monsoon season over a dense gauge network at the U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in the southwestern United States. The spatial coefficient of variation for the precipitation field is employed as an indicator of event morphology, and a gauge clustering factor CF is formulated as a new, scale-independent measure of network organization. We consider that CF 0 (clustering in the gauge network) will produce errors because of reduced areal representation of the precipitation field. Spatial interpolation is performed using both inverse-distance-weighted (IDW) and multiquadric-biharmonic (MQB) methods. We employ ensembles of randomly selected network subsets for the statistical evaluation of interpolation errors in comparison with the observed precipitation. The magnitude of interpolation errors and differences in accuracy between interpolation methods depend on both the density and the geometrical organization of the gauge network. Generally, MQB methods outperform IDW methods in terms of interpolation accuracy under all conditions, but it is found that the order of the IDW method is important to the results and may, under some conditions, be just as accurate as the MQB method. In almost all results it is demonstrated that the inverse-distance-squared method for spatial interpolation, commonly employed in operational analyses and for engineering assessments, is inferior to the ID-cubed method, which is also more computationally efficient than the MQB method in studies of large networks.

  20. Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2015-03-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

  1. Storm and cloud dynamics

    Cotton, William R

    1992-01-01

    This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

  2. Metabolic syndrome definitions and components in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events after kidney transplantation.

    Prasad, G V Ramesh; Huang, Michael; Silver, Samuel A; Al-Lawati, Ali I; Rapi, Lindita; Nash, Michelle M; Zaltzman, Jeffrey S

    2015-01-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) associates with cardiovascular risk post-kidney transplantation, but its ambiguity impairs understanding of its diagnostic utility relative to components. We compared five MetS definitions and the predictive value of constituent components of significant definitions for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in a cohort of 1182 kidney transplant recipients. MetS definitions were adjusted for noncomponent traditional Framingham risk factors and relevant transplant-related variables. Kaplan-Meier, logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazards analysis were utilized. There were 143 MACE over 7447 patient-years of follow-up. Only the World Health Organization (WHO) 1998 definition predicted MACE (25.3 vs 15.5 events/1000 patient-years, P = 0.019). Time-to-MACE was 5.5 ± 3.5 years with MetS and 6.8 ± 3.9 years without MetS (P < 0.0001). MetS was independent of pertinent MACE risk factors except age and previous cardiac disease. Among MetS components, dysglycemia provided greatest hazard ratio (HR) for MACE (1.814 [95% confidence interval 1.26-2.60]), increased successively by microalbuminuria (HR 1.946 [1.37-2.75]), dyslipidemia (3.284 [1.72-6.26]), hypertension (4.127 [2.16-7.86]), and central obesity (4.282 [2.09-8.76]). MetS did not affect graft survival. In summary, although the WHO 1998 definition provides greatest predictive value for post-transplant MACE, most of this is conferred by dysglycemia and is overshadowed by age and previous cardiac disease. © 2014 Steunstichting ESOT.

  3. The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

    M.-C. ten Veldhuis

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semiurbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

  4. The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James

    2018-01-01

    The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

  5. Ionosphere and thermosphere responses during August 1972 storms - a review

    Matsushita, S.

    1976-01-01

    Various reports of ionospheric responses during the August 1972 storm events are reviewed with respect to the phenomena in three major world sectors, N-S America, Afro-Europe, and Austro-Asia, in order to have a global picture. Emphasized highlights are (1) extensive investigation of the sudden increase of the total electron content estimated from Faraday-rotation measurements of satellite signals; (2) a dramatic upward surge above 300 km latitude, soon after a flare, measured by the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar; (3) electron density profiles, electric fields and conductivities, and neutral winds, at the time of the geomagnetic storm sudden commencement and during the succeeding storms, measured by the Chatanika incoherent scatter radar; and, (4) approximately 2.5-h oscillatory F2 density variations in Eastern Asia during the F2 storm main phase. To show temporal variations of the latitudinal distributions of storm-time F2 electron densities, in three longitudinal sectors separated about 60 0 longitude each, newly investigated results of the F2 hourly data at 35 stations in the Asia-Australia-Pacific sector are then exhibited. Finally, current theories or at least theoretical ideas of ionospheric storm mechanisms are briefly introduced, and a few remarks on the August events in the light of those theories are presented. (Auth.)

  6. Radar observations of a tornado-spawning storm complex in Southeast Brazil and Meso-Eta forecasts of this extreme event

    Held, Gerhard; Gomes, Jorge Luis; Gomes, Ana Maria

    2014-05-01

    During the early afternoon of 22 September 2013, severe storms, accompanied by large hail, damaging winds, heavy precipitation and intense lightning activity, devastated a region in the southeast State of São Paulo. Several extremely intense storm cells moved at up to 80 km/h east-southeastwards, ahead of a strong cold front approaching through Paraná, which created extremely unstable conditions that led to deep convection and overshooting towers up to 18 km. At least one of theses cells spawned a tornado when it reached the town of Taquarituba. The tornado traversed the town from south-southwest to north-northeast and was responsible for 63 people injured and two fatalities. Based on the damage reported, it was at least an F3 according to the Fujita scale. The objective of the present study is to characterize this severe thunderstorm event, using different types of data, and to evaluate the forecasts provided by the Meso-Eta model centered over Bauru. The pre-frontal and frontal convective cells were tracked throughout their life-time by IPMet's Doppler radars, which cover the western and central regions of the State São Paulo, as well as northern Paraná State. Radar volume scans, generated every 7,5 min, were processed with the TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) Software, yielding the following preliminary results: as the storm complex traversed the Paranapanema River, which forms the border between the two states, the cells intensified drastically and shortly before reaching the town of Taquarituba, that particular cell displayed extremely strong radial shear just above the cloud base (about -20 to +35 m/s), which led to the formation of a deep meso-cyclone, from which the tornado spawned and touched down at around 14:30 LT (LT=UT-3h). Cell properties calculated by TITAN showed a drastic increase of VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid water content) from 13:52 LT (7,9 kg/m2) to a maximum of 61,8 kg/m2 at 14:15 LT. From 14

  7. Influence of storm characteristics on soil erosion and storm runoff

    Johnny M. III Grace

    2008-01-01

    Unpaved forest roads can be major sources of sediment from forested watersheds. Storm runoff from forest roads are a concern due to their potential delivery of sediments and nutrients to stream systems resulting in degraded water quality. The volume and sediment concentrations of stormwater runoff emanating from forest roads can be greatly influenced by storm...

  8. Plaque Structural Stress Estimations Improve Prediction of Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Intracoronary Imaging.

    Brown, Adam J; Teng, Zhongzhao; Calvert, Patrick A; Rajani, Nikil K; Hennessy, Orla; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Obaid, Daniel R; Costopoulos, Charis; Huang, Yuan; Hoole, Stephen P; Goddard, Martin; West, Nick E J; Gillard, Jonathan H; Bennett, Martin R

    2016-06-01

    Although plaque rupture is responsible for most myocardial infarctions, few high-risk plaques identified by intracoronary imaging actually result in future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Nonimaging markers of individual plaque behavior are therefore required. Rupture occurs when plaque structural stress (PSS) exceeds material strength. We therefore assessed whether PSS could predict future MACE in high-risk nonculprit lesions identified on virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. Baseline nonculprit lesion features associated with MACE during long-term follow-up (median: 1115 days) were determined in 170 patients undergoing 3-vessel virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. MACE was associated with plaque burden ≥70% (hazard ratio: 8.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-30.6; P<0.001) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (hazard ratio: 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.1; P=0.036), although absolute event rates for high-risk lesions remained <10%. PSS derived from virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound was subsequently estimated in nonculprit lesions responsible for MACE (n=22) versus matched control lesions (n=22). PSS showed marked heterogeneity across and between similar lesions but was significantly increased in MACE lesions at high-risk regions, including plaque burden ≥70% (13.9±11.5 versus 10.2±4.7; P<0.001) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (14.0±8.9 versus 11.6±4.5; P=0.02). Furthermore, PSS improved the ability of virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound to predict MACE in plaques with plaque burden ≥70% (adjusted log-rank, P=0.003) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (P=0.002). Plaques responsible for MACE had larger superficial calcium inclusions, which acted to increase PSS (P<0.05). Baseline PSS is increased in plaques responsible for MACE and improves the ability of intracoronary imaging to predict events. Biomechanical modeling may complement plaque imaging for risk stratification of coronary nonculprit lesions. © 2016

  9. Left atrial enlargement increases the risk of major adverse cardiac events independent of coronary vasodilator capacity.

    Koh, Angela S; Murthy, Venkatesh L; Sitek, Arkadiusz; Gayed, Peter; Bruyere, John; Wu, Justina; Di Carli, Marcelo F; Dorbala, Sharmila

    2015-09-01

    Longstanding uncontrolled atherogenic risk factors may contribute to left atrial (LA) hypertension, LA enlargement (LAE) and coronary vascular dysfunction. Together they may better identify risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that chronic LA hypertension as assessed by LAE modifies the relationship between coronary vascular function and MACE. In 508 unselected subjects with a normal clinical (82)Rb PET/CT, ejection fraction ≥40 %, no prior coronary artery disease, valve disease or atrial fibrillation, LAE was determined based on LA volumes estimated from the hybrid perfusion and CT transmission scan images and indexed to body surface area. Absolute myocardial blood flow and global coronary flow reserve (CFR) were calculated. Subjects were systematically followed-up for the primary end-point - MACE - a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for heart failure, stroke, coronary artery disease progression or revascularization. During a median follow-up of 862 days, 65 of the subjects experienced a composite event. Compared with subjects with normal LA size, subjects with LAE showed significantly lower CFR (2.25 ± 0.83 vs. 1.95 ± 0.80, p = 0.01). LAE independently and incrementally predicted MACE even after accounting for clinical risk factors, medication use, stress left ventricular ejection fraction, stress left ventricular end-diastolic volume index and CFR (chi-squared statistic increased from 30.9 to 48.3; p = 0.001). Among subjects with normal CFR, those with LAE had significantly worse event-free survival (risk adjusted HR 5.4, 95 % CI 2.3 - 12.8, p < 0.0001). LAE and reduced CFR are related but distinct cardiovascular adaptations to atherogenic risk factors. LAE is a risk marker for MACE independent of clinical factors and left ventricular volumes; individuals with LAE may be at risk of MACE despite normal coronary vascular function.

  10. Identifying Prominent Life Events on Twitter

    Dickinson, Thomas; Fernández, Miriam; Thomas, Lisa A.; Mulholland, Paul; Briggs, Pam; Alani, Harith

    2015-01-01

    Social media is a common place for people to post and share digital reflections of their life events, including major events such as getting married, having children, graduating, etc. Although the creation of such posts is straightforward, the identification of events on online media remains a challenge. Much research in recent years focused on extracting major events from Twitter, such as earthquakes, storms, and floods. This paper however, targets the automatic detection of personal life ev...

  11. Ionosonde observations of the effects of the major magnetic storm of September 22-26, 1999 at equatorial station in west Africa

    Coulibaly, I. S.; Adohi, B. J.-P.; Tanoh, K. S.

    2018-05-01

    A new approach to study the mechanisms of storm-time variations in the F-layer height and critical frequency at dip-equator is proposed. The latitudinal variations in the magnetic disturbance index DP were combined with h'F and foF2 data from an IPS 42-type ionosonde at Korkogo (9.2° N, 5° W; 2.4° S dip lat), Ivory Coast, to investigate the nighttime ionospheric effects of the geomagnetic storm of September 22-26, 1999 in the West-African sector. A clear equatorward penetration of magnetic disturbances from high latitudes regions was observed. At dip-equator, the DP magnetic disturbance pattern showed up to four distinct regimes of disturbance electric fields, each associated with a specific phase of the storm. A regime of westward transient electric fields followed by a regime of eastward transient electric fields occurred during the main phase of the storm. This was preceded by a period of quasi-absence of disturbance during the compression phase, the whole followed by a regime of westward persistent disturbance electric fields during the recovery phase. From the latitudinal variations and the shapes of these perturbations, we could associate the regime of westward (resp. eastward) disturbance electric fields with prompt penetration (resp. overshielding) occasioned by magnetospheric convections and the persistent one with a cumulative effect of storm-time winds and magnetospheric convections from high latitudes regions. The h'F variations were found to be strongly correlated with the DP ones, clearly providing evidence for the prevalence of these electric fields on the observed F-layer motions. Additionally, the foF2 variations showed two periods of depleted electron density, one in the evening during the compression phase of the storm and the other near midnight. We discussed the mechanisms of these ionospheric negative storms in the light of earlier investigations of storm-time ionospheric disturbances and validated our method by comparison of the above

  12. Using Remote Sensing and High-Resolution Digital Elevation Models to Identify Potential Erosional Hotspots Along River Channels During High Discharge Storm Events

    Orland, E. D.; Amidon, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    As global warming intensifies, large precipitation events and associated floods are becoming increasingly common. Channel adjustments during floods can occur by both erosion and deposition of sediment, often damaging infrastructure in the process. There is thus a need for predictive models that can help managers identify river reaches that are most prone to adjustment during storms. Because rivers in post-glacial landscapes often flow over a mixture of bedrock and alluvial substrates, the identification of bedrock vs. alluvial channel reaches is an important first step in predicting vulnerability to channel adjustment during flood events, especially because bedrock channels are unlikely to adjust significantly, even during floods. This study develops a semi-automated approach to predicting channel substrate using a high-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM). The study area is the Middlebury River in Middlebury, VT-a well-studied watershed with a wide variety of channel substrates, including reaches with documented channel adjustments during recent flooding events. Multiple metrics were considered for reference—such as channel width and drainage area—but the study utilized channel slope as a key parameter for identifying morphological variations within the Middlebury River. Using data extracted from the DEM, a power law was fit to selected slope and drainage area values for each branch in order to model idealized slope-drainage area relationships, which were then compared with measured slope-drainage area relationships. Differences in measured slope minus predicted slope (called delta-slope) are shown to help predict river channel substrate. Compared with field observations, higher delta-slope values correlate with more stable, boulder rich channels or bedrock gorges; conversely the lowest delta-slope values correlate with flat, sediment rich alluvial channels. The delta-slope metric thus serves as a reliable first-order predictor of channel

  13. The Knowledge-Integrated Network Biomarkers Discovery for Major Adverse Cardiac Events

    Jin, Guangxu; Zhou, Xiaobo; Wang, Honghui; Zhao, Hong; Cui, Kemi; Zhang, Xiang-Sun; Chen, Luonan; Hazen, Stanley L.; Li, King; Wong, Stephen T. C.

    2010-01-01

    The mass spectrometry (MS) technology in clinical proteomics is very promising for discovery of new biomarkers for diseases management. To overcome the obstacles of data noises in MS analysis, we proposed a new approach of knowledge-integrated biomarker discovery using data from Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) patients. We first built up a cardiovascular-related network based on protein information coming from protein annotations in Uniprot, protein–protein interaction (PPI), and signal transduction database. Distinct from the previous machine learning methods in MS data processing, we then used statistical methods to discover biomarkers in cardiovascular-related network. Through the tradeoff between known protein information and data noises in mass spectrometry data, we finally could firmly identify those high-confident biomarkers. Most importantly, aided by protein–protein interaction network, that is, cardiovascular-related network, we proposed a new type of biomarkers, that is, network biomarkers, composed of a set of proteins and the interactions among them. The candidate network biomarkers can classify the two groups of patients more accurately than current single ones without consideration of biological molecular interaction. PMID:18665624

  14. Radiation detectors for use in major public events: classification, requirements, main features, tests and lessons learned

    Souza, Elder Magalhães de

    2017-01-01

    Since September 11, 2001, we have entered a new terrorism era. The possibility of the use of lost/stolen radioactive materials increases the probability of a radiological threat. The real goal intended with the use of a Radiological Dispersal Device (RRD or dirty bomb) or a Radiation Exposure Device (RDE) could be psychological in nature. Panic in the venues and surrounding area would cause more deaths than the RDD itself, therefore these attempts could cause chaos, injury, fear and terror, the main target of terrorists. The response of the national authorities with the support and aid of the IAEA served as an increase of the capability of detection and identification of nuclear and radiological materials. But this response could not be limited only to the MPE, because if the country has radioactive or nuclear facilities they also should be considered in terms of theft, sabotage, illegal transfer, unauthorized access, and any other malicious acts. In 2007, Rio de Janeiro, received the first Brazilian Major Public Event in this new era. This was the first Brazilian operation which largely utilized detectors (personal radiations detectors -PRD- radiological identification detectors, -RID or RIID- and spectral radiations scanners, -backpacks-, HPGe detectors, car-borne and air-borne systems) to protect the venues, the athletes, the population and the environment. (author)

  15. Radiation detectors for use in major public events: classification, requirements, main features, tests and lessons learned

    Souza, Elder Magalhães de, E-mail: elder@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (DIRAD/IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Div. de Radiometria

    2017-07-01

    Since September 11, 2001, we have entered a new terrorism era. The possibility of the use of lost/stolen radioactive materials increases the probability of a radiological threat. The real goal intended with the use of a Radiological Dispersal Device (RRD or dirty bomb) or a Radiation Exposure Device (RDE) could be psychological in nature. Panic in the venues and surrounding area would cause more deaths than the RDD itself, therefore these attempts could cause chaos, injury, fear and terror, the main target of terrorists. The response of the national authorities with the support and aid of the IAEA served as an increase of the capability of detection and identification of nuclear and radiological materials. But this response could not be limited only to the MPE, because if the country has radioactive or nuclear facilities they also should be considered in terms of theft, sabotage, illegal transfer, unauthorized access, and any other malicious acts. In 2007, Rio de Janeiro, received the first Brazilian Major Public Event in this new era. This was the first Brazilian operation which largely utilized detectors (personal radiations detectors -PRD- radiological identification detectors, -RID or RIID- and spectral radiations scanners, -backpacks-, HPGe detectors, car-borne and air-borne systems) to protect the venues, the athletes, the population and the environment. (author)

  16. Association between influenza vaccination and reduced risks of major adverse cardiovascular events in elderly patients.

    Chiang, Ming-Hsien; Wu, Hau-Hsin; Shih, Chia-Jen; Chen, Yung-Tai; Kuo, Shu-Chen; Chen, Te-Li

    2017-11-01

    This study was conducted to determine the protective effect of influenza vaccine against primary major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in elderly patients, especially those with influenza-like illness (ILI). This retrospective, population-based case-control study of an elderly population (age≥65 years) was conducted using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (2000-2013). One control was selected for each MACE case (n=80,363 each), matched according to age, year of study entry, and predisposing factors for MACEs. ILI and MACEs (myocardial infarction [MI] and ischemic stroke) were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for the association between MACEs and vaccination. Influenza vaccination received in the previous year was associated with reduced risks of primary MACEs overall (adjusted OR [aOR] 0.80, 95% CI 0.78-0.82, Prisks of MACEs (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.18-1.29, PVaccination attenuated the heightened risks associated with ILI (MACEs: aOR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92-1.07, P=.834; MI: aOR 1.05, 95% CI 0.92-1.21, P=.440; ischemic stroke: aOR 0.96, 95% CI 0.89-1.05, P=.398). Results of this study suggest that influenza vaccination is associated with reduced primary MACE risks in the elderly population, including those with ILI. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Safety culture in nuclear installations: Bangladesh perspectives and key lessons learned from major events

    Jalil, A.; Rabbani, G.

    2002-01-01

    Steps necessary to be taken to ensure safety in nuclear installations are suggested. One of the steps suggested is enhancing the safety culture. It is necessary to gain a common understanding of the concept itself, the development stages of safety culture by way of good management practices and leadership for safety culture improvement in the long-term. International topical meetings on safety culture may serve as an important forum for exchange of experiences. From such conventions new initiatives and programmes may crop up which when implemented around the world is very likely to improve safety management and thus boost up the safety culture in nuclear installations. International co-operation and learning are to be prompted to facilitate the sharing of the achievements to face the challenges involved in the management of safety and fixing priorities for future work and identify areas of co-operations. Key lessons learned from some major events have been reported. Present status and future trend of nuclear safety culture in Bangladesh have been dealt with. (author)

  18. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2014-10-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

  19. Costs of major intracranial, gastrointestinal and other bleeding events in patients with atrial fibrillation - a nationwide cohort study.

    Jakobsen, Marie; Kolodziejczyk, Christophe; Klausen Fredslund, Eskild; Poulsen, Peter Bo; Dybro, Lars; Paaske Johnsen, Søren

    2017-06-12

    Use of oral anticoagulation therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) involves a trade-off between a reduced risk of ischemic stroke and an increased risk of bleeding events. Different anticoagulation therapies have different safety profiles and data on the societal costs of both ischemic stroke and bleeding events are necessary for assessing the cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of different treatment options. To our knowledge, no previous studies have estimated the societal costs of bleeding events in patients with AF. The objective of this study was to estimate the 3-years societal costs of first-incident intracranial, gastrointestinal and other major bleeding events in Danish patients with AF. The study was an incidence-based cost-of-illness study carried out from a societal perspective and based on data from national Danish registries covering the period 2002-2012. Costs were estimated using a propensity score matching and multivariable regression analysis (first difference OLS) in a cohort design. Average 3-years societal costs attributable to intracranial, gastrointestinal and other major bleeding events were 27,627, 17,868, and 12,384 EUR per patient, respectively (2015 prices). Existing evidence shows that the corresponding costs of ischemic stroke were 24,084 EUR per patient (2012 prices). The average costs of bleeding events did not differ between patients with AF who were on oral anticoagulation therapy prior to the event and patients who were not. The societal costs attributable to major bleeding events in patients with AF are significant. Intracranial haemorrhages are most costly to society with average costs of similar magnitude as the costs of ischemic stroke. The average costs of gastrointestinal and other major bleeding events are lower than the costs of intracranial haemorrhages, but still substantial. Knowledge about the relative size of the costs of bleeding events compared to ischemic stroke in patients with AF constitutes

  20. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  1. Major adverse cardiovascular event reduction with GLP-1 and SGLT2 agents: evidence and clinical potential

    Røder, Michael E.

    2017-01-01

    Treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes is directed against treating symptoms of hyperglycemia, minimizing the risk of hypoglycemia, and the risk of microvascular and macrovascular complications. The majority of patients with type 2 diabetes die from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease. Future therapies should therefore focus on reducing cardiovascular morbidity in this high-risk population. Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2-i) are two drug classes with proven antihyperglycemic effect in type 2 diabetes. However, these drugs seem to have other effects such as weight reduction, low risk of hypoglycemia, and blood pressure reduction. Emerging evidence suggests pleiotropic effects, which potentially could be important in reducing cardiovascular risk. Prompted by regulatory authorities demanding cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) assessing the cardiovascular safety of new antihyperglycemic drug candidates, many CVOTs are ongoing and a few of these are finalized. Somewhat surprising recent CVOTs in both drug classes have shown promising data on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with a very high risk of cardiovascular events. It is uncertain whether this is a class effect of the two drug classes, and it is yet unproven whether long-term cardiovascular benefits of these drugs can be extrapolated to populations at lower risk of cardiovascular disease. The aim of the present review is to give an overview of our current knowledge of the GLP-1RA and SGLT2-i classes, with specific focus on mechanisms of action, effects on cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality from the CVOTs presently available. The clinical potential of these data is discussed. PMID:29344329

  2. Clinical and genetic predictors of major cardiac events in patients with Anderson-Fabry Disease.

    Patel, Vimal; O'Mahony, Constantinos; Hughes, Derralynn; Rahman, Mohammad Shafiqur; Coats, Caroline; Murphy, Elaine; Lachmann, Robin; Mehta, Atul; Elliott, Perry M

    2015-06-01

    Anderson-Fabry Disease (AFD) is an X linked lysosomal storage disorder caused by mutations in the α-galactosidase A gene. Some mutations are associated with prominent and, in many cases, exclusive cardiac involvement. The primary aims of this study were to determine the incidence of major cardiac events in AFD and to identify clinical and genetic predictors of adverse outcomes. We studied 207 patients with AFD (47% male, mean age 44 years, mean follow-up 7.1 years). Fifty-eight (28%) individuals carried mutations that have been previously associated with a cardiac predominant phenotype. Twenty-one (10%) developed severe heart failure (New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥3), 13 (6%) developed atrial fibrillation (AF), 13 (6%) received devices for the treatment of bradycardia; there were a total of 7 (3%) cardiac deaths. The incidence of the primary endpoint (a composite of new onset AF, NYHA ≥ 3 symptoms, device insertion for bradycardia and cardiac death) was 2.64 per 100 person-years (CI 1.78 to 3.77). Age (HR 1.04, CI 1.01 to 1.08, p=0.004), Mainz Severity Score Index score (HR 1.05, CI 1.01 to 1.09, p=0.012) and QRS duration (HR 1.03, CI 1.00 to 1.05, p=0.020) were significant independent predictors of the primary endpoint. The presence of a cardiac genetic variant did not predict the primary end point. AFD is associated with a high burden of cardiac morbidity and mortality. Adverse cardiac outcomes are associated with age, global disease severity and advanced cardiac disease but not the presence of cardiac genetic variants. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  3. Auditory selective attention in adolescents with major depression: An event-related potential study.

    Greimel, E; Trinkl, M; Bartling, J; Bakos, S; Grossheinrich, N; Schulte-Körne, G

    2015-02-01

    Major depression (MD) is associated with deficits in selective attention. Previous studies in adults with MD using event-related potentials (ERPs) reported abnormalities in the neurophysiological correlates of auditory selective attention. However, it is yet unclear whether these findings can be generalized to MD in adolescence. Thus, the aim of the present ERP study was to explore the neural mechanisms of auditory selective attention in adolescents with MD. 24 male and female unmedicated adolescents with MD and 21 control subjects were included in the study. ERPs were collected during an auditory oddball paradigm. Depressive adolescents tended to show a longer N100 latency to target and non-target tones. Moreover, MD subjects showed a prolonged latency of the P200 component to targets. Across groups, longer P200 latency was associated with a decreased tendency of disinhibited behavior as assessed by a behavioral questionnaire. To be able to draw more precise conclusions about differences between the neural bases of selective attention in adolescents vs. adults with MD, future studies should include both age groups and apply the same experimental setting across all subjects. The study provides strong support for abnormalities in the neurophysiolgical bases of selective attention in adolecents with MD at early stages of auditory information processing. Absent group differences in later ERP components reflecting voluntary attentional processes stand in contrast to results reported in adults with MD and may suggest that adolescents with MD possess mechanisms to compensate for abnormalities in the early stages of selective attention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Responses of two genetically superior loblolly pine clonal ideotypes to a severe ice storm

    Lauren S. Pile; Christopher A. Maier; G. Geoff Wang; Dapao Yu; Tim M. Shearman

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, such as major ice storms, can have severe impacts on southern forests. We investigated the damage inflicted by a severe ice storm that occurred in February 2014 on two loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) ideotypes in Cross, South Carolina located in the southeastern coastal plain. The ‘‘narrow crown”...

  5. Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

    Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

    2017-12-01

    For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

  6. Events that lead university students to change their major to Information Systems: A retroductive South African case

    Lisa Florence Seymour

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Shortage of computing skills is a global concern as it affects national development and business success. Yet, despite high job availability and high salaries in computing professions, insufficient numbers of students are choosing to study the various computing disciplines. This South African study looks at the Information Systems (IS major which is misunderstood by high school students. This retroductive case study identifies the events which lead students to change their major to IS. The study confirms the importance of interest in a major as well as the perceived high value of a major, which feature as dominant factors in the literature. Yet these are not the initial events that lead to students changing their major to IS. Events that initiate the process include losing passion for a previous major, experiencing difficulty in a previous major as well as enjoying the introductory IS course. The paper has practical advice for IS Departments and argues for a generic first year for students as well as a focus on enjoyment and skills aligned to IS professional practice in introductory IS courses. These findings can be generalised to other majors and, hence, the theoretical contribution adds to the literature on career choice in general.

  7. On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve...... our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud...... images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H s ) for open sea...

  8. Strategies to take into account variations in extreme rainfall events for design storms in urban area: an example over Naples (Southern Italy)

    Mercogliano, P.; Rianna, G.

    2017-12-01

    Eminent works highlighted how available observations display ongoing increases in extreme rainfall events while climate models assess them for future. Although the constraints in rainfall networks observations and uncertainties in climate modelling currently affect in significant way investigations, the huge impacts potentially induced by climate changes (CC) suggest adopting effective adaptation measures in order to take proper precautions. In this regard, design storms are used by engineers to size hydraulic infrastructures potentially affected by direct (e.g. pluvial/urban flooding) and indirect (e.g. river flooding) effects of extreme rainfall events. Usually they are expressed as IDF curves, mathematical relationships between rainfall Intensity, Duration, and the return period (frequency, F). They are estimated interpreting through Extreme Theories Statistical Theories (ETST) past rainfall records under the assumption of steady conditions resulting then unsuitable under climate change. In this work, a methodology to estimate future variations in IDF curves is presented and carried out for the city of Naples (Southern Italy). In this regard, the Equidistance Quantile Matching Approach proposed by Sivrastav et al. (2014) is adopted. According it, daily-subdaily maximum precipitation observations [a] and the analogous daily data provided by climate projections on current [b] and future time spans [c] are interpreted in IDF terms through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach. After, quantile based mapping approach is used to establish a statistical relationship between cumulative distribution functions resulting by GEV of [a] and [b] (spatial downscaling) and [b] and [c] functions (temporal downscaling). Coupling so-obtained relations permits generating IDF curves under CC assumption. To account for uncertainties in future projections, all climate simulations available for the area in Euro-Cordex multimodel ensemble at 0.11° (about 12 km) are considered under

  9. The association between idiopathic environmental intolerance and psychological distress, and the influence of social support and recent major life events

    Skovbjerg, Sine; Rasmussen, Alice; Zachariae, Robert

    2012-01-01

    this association has not been clarified. The objective of this study was to examine the association between psychological distress and IEI and to determine whether the association is confounded by social support and major life events. Methods Data were collected by postal questionnaires; other results from...... consequences, as the dependent variables, and psychological distress, social support and major life events as the independent variables. Results Our study confirmed positive and statistically significant associations between psychological distress and IEI. The associations remained statistically significant...... after adjusting for major life events and social support. Conclusions The results suggest that the association between IEI and psychological distress cannot be explained by known risk factors. More studies, including longitudinal studies, are needed to determine the role of psychological distress...

  10. High Triglycerides Predicts Arteriogenic Erectile Dysfunction and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Subjects With Sexual Dysfunction.

    Corona, Giovanni; Cipriani, Sarah; Rastrelli, Giulia; Sforza, Alessandra; Mannucci, Edoardo; Maggi, Mario

    2016-09-01

    The atherogenic role of triglycerides (TG) remains controversial. The aim of the present study is to analyze the contribution of TG in the pathogenesis of erectile dysfunction (ED) and to verify the value of elevated TG in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). An unselected series of 3,990 men attending our outpatient clinic for sexual dysfunction was retrospectively studied. A subset of this sample (n = 1,687) was enrolled in a longitudinal study. Several clinical, biochemical, and instrumental (penile color Doppler ultrasound; PCDU) factors were evaluated. Among the patients studied, after adjustment for confounders, higher TG levels were associated with arteriogenic ED and a higher risk of clinical and biochemical hypogonadism. Conversely, no association between TG and other sexual dysfunctions was observed. When pathological PCDU parameters-including flaccid acceleration (<1.17 m/sec(2)) or dynamic peak systolic velocity (PSV <35 cm/sec)-were considered, the negative association between impaired penile flow and higher TG levels was confirmed, even when subjects taking lipid-lowering drugs or those with diabetes were excluded from the analysis (OR = 6.343 [1.243;32.362], P = .026 and 3.576 [1.104;11.578]; P = .34 for impaired acceleration and PSV, respectively). Similarly, when the same adjusted models were applied, TG levels were associated with a higher risk of hypogonadism, independently of the definition criteria (OR = 2.892 [1.643;5.410], P < .0001 and 4.853 [1.965;11.990]; P = .001 for total T <12 and 8 nM, respectively). In the longitudinal study, after adjusting for confounders, elevated TG levels (upper quartile: 162-1686 mg/dL) were independently associated with a higher incidence of MACE (HR = 2.469 [1.019;5.981]; P = .045), when compared to the rest of the sample. Our data suggest an association between elevated TG and arteriogenic ED and its cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification. Whether the use of TG lowering drugs

  11. Coding of adverse events of suicidality in clinical study reports of duloxetine for the treatment of major depressive disorder

    Maund, Emma; Tendal, Britta; Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of coding and coding conventions on summaries and tabulations of adverse events data on suicidality within clinical study reports. DESIGN: Systematic electronic search for adverse events of suicidality in tables, narratives, and listings of adverse events...... identification number, we attempted to reconcile data on the same event between the different formats for presenting data on adverse events within the clinical study report. SETTING: 9 randomised placebo controlled trials of duloxetine for major depressive disorder submitted to the European Medicines Agency...... for marketing approval. DATA SOURCES: Clinical study reports obtained from the EMA in 2011. RESULTS: Six trials used the medical coding dictionary COSTART (Coding Symbols for a Thesaurus of Adverse Reaction Terms) and three used MedDRA (Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities). Suicides were clearly...

  12. Impact of the Icme-Earth Geometry on the Strength of the Associated Geomagnetic Storm: The September 2014 and March 2015 Events

    Cho, K.-S.; Marubashi, K.; Kim, R.-S.; Park, S.-H.; Lim, E.-K.; Kim, S.-J.; Kumar, P.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Moon, Y.-J.; Lee, J.-O.

    2017-04-01

    We investigate two abnormal CME-Storm pairs that occurred on 2014 September 10 - 12 and 2015 March 15 - 17, respectively. The first one was a moderate geomagnetic storm (Dst_{min} ˜ -75 nT) driven by the X1.6 high speed flare-associated CME (1267 km s^{-1}) in AR 12158 (N14E02) near solar disk center. The other was a very intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_{min} ˜ -223 nT) caused by a CME with moderate speed (719 km s^{-1}) and associated with a filament eruption accompanied by a weak flare (C9.1) in AR 12297 (S17W38). Both CMEs have large direction parameters facing the Earth and southward magnetic field orientation in their solar source region. In this study, we inspect the structure of Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) at the Earth estimated by using the torus fitting technique assuming self-similar expansion. As results, we find that the moderate storm on 2014 September 12 was caused by small-scale southward magnetic fields in the sheath region ahead of the IFR. The Earth traversed the portion of the IFR where only the northward fields are observed. Meanwhile, in case of the 2015 March 17 storm, our IFR analysis revealed that the Earth passed the very portion where only the southward magnetic fields are observed throughout the passage. The resultant southward magnetic field with long-duration is the main cause of the intense storm. We suggest that 3D magnetic field geometry of an IFR at the IFR-Earth encounter is important and the strength of a geomagnetic storm is strongly affected by the relative location of the Earth with respect to the IFR structure.

  13. Validation of Storm Water Management Model Storm Control Measures Modules

    Simon, M. A.; Platz, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a computational code heavily relied upon by industry for the simulation of wastewater and stormwater infrastructure performance. Many municipalities are relying on SWMM results to design multi-billion-dollar, multi-decade infrastructure upgrades. Since the 1970's, EPA and others have developed five major releases, the most recent ones containing storm control measures modules for green infrastructure. The main objective of this study was to quantify the accuracy with which SWMM v5.1.10 simulates the hydrologic activity of previously monitored low impact developments. Model performance was evaluated with a mathematical comparison of outflow hydrographs and total outflow volumes, using empirical data and a multi-event, multi-objective calibration method. The calibration methodology utilized PEST++ Version 3, a parameter estimation tool, which aided in the selection of unmeasured hydrologic parameters. From the validation study and sensitivity analysis, several model improvements were identified to advance SWMM LID Module performance for permeable pavements, infiltration units and green roofs, and these were performed and reported herein. Overall, it was determined that SWMM can successfully simulate low impact development controls given accurate model confirmation, parameter measurement, and model calibration.

  14. Substorms during different storm phases

    N. Partamies

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available After the deep solar minimum at the end of the solar cycle 23, a small magnetic storm occurred on 20–26 January 2010. The Dst (disturbance storm time index reached the minimum of −38 nT on 20 January and the prolonged recovery that followed the main phase that lasted for about 6 days. In this study, we concentrate on three substorms that took place (1 just prior to the storm, (2 during the main phase of the storm, and (3 at the end of the recovery of the storm. We analyse the solar wind conditions from the solar wind monitoring spacecraft, the duration and intensity of the substorm events as well as the behaviour of the electrojet currents from the ground magnetometer measurements. We compare the precipitation characteristics of the three substorms. The results show that the F-region electron density enhancements and dominant green and red auroral emission of the substorm activity during the storm recovery resembles average isolated substorm precipitation. However, the energy dissipated, even at the very end of a prolonged storm recovery, is very large compared to the typical energy content of isolated substorms. In the case studied here, the dissipation of the excess energy is observed over a 3-h long period of several consecutive substorm intensifications. Our findings suggest that the substorm energy dissipation varies between the storm phases.

  15. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  16. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  17. Major consequences of an intense dense shelf water cascading event on deep-sea benthic trophic conditions and meiofaunal biodiversity

    A. Pusceddu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Numerous submarine canyons around the world are preferential conduits for episodic dense shelf water cascading (DSWC, which quickly modifies physical and chemical ambient conditions while transporting large amounts of material towards the base of slope and basin. Observations conducted during the last 20 yr in the Lacaze-Duthiers and Cap de Creus canyons (Gulf of Lion, NW Mediterranean Sea report several intense DSWC events. The effects of DSWC on deep-sea ecosystems are almost unknown. To investigate the effects of these episodic events, we analysed changes in the meiofaunal biodiversity inside and outside the canyon. Sediment samples were collected at depths varying from ca. 1000 to > 2100 m in May 2004 (before a major event, April 2005 (during a major cascading event and in October 2005, August 2006, April 2008 and April 2009 (after a major event. We report here that the late winter–early spring 2005 cascading led to a reduction of the organic matter contents in canyon floor sediments down to 1800 m depth, whereas surface sediments at about 2200 m depth showed an increase. Our findings suggest that the nutritional material removed from the shallower continental shelf, canyon floor and flanks, and also the adjacent open slope was rapidly transported to the deep margin. During the cascading event the meiofaunal abundance and biodiversity in the studied deep-sea sediments were significantly lower than after the event. Benthic assemblages during the cascading were significantly different from those in all other sampling periods in both the canyon and deep margin. After only six months from the cessation of the cascading, benthic assemblages in the impacted sediments were again similar to those observed in other sampling periods, thus illustrating a quick recovery. Since the present climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of these episodic events, we anticipate that they will increasingly affect benthic bathyal

  18. Caplacizumab reduces the frequency of major thromboembolic events, exacerbations and death in patients with acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

    Peyvandi, F; Scully, M; Kremer Hovinga, J A; Knöbl, P; Cataland, S; De Beuf, K; Callewaert, F; De Winter, H; Zeldin, R K

    2017-07-01

    Essentials Acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (aTTP) is linked with significant morbidity/mortality. Caplacizumab's effect on major thromboembolic (TE) events, exacerbations and death was studied. Fewer caplacizumab-treated patients had a major TE event, an exacerbation, or died versus placebo. Caplacizumab has the potential to reduce the acute morbidity and mortality associated with aTTP. Background Acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (aTTP) is a life-threatening autoimmune thrombotic microangiopathy. In spite of treatment with plasma exchange and immunosuppression, patients remain at risk for thrombotic complications, exacerbations, and death. In the phase II TITAN study, treatment with caplacizumab, an anti-von Willebrand factor Nanobody ® was shown to reduce the time to confirmed platelet count normalization and exacerbations during treatment. Objective The clinical benefit of caplacizumab was further investigated in a post hoc analysis of the incidence of major thromboembolic events and exacerbations during the study drug treatment period and thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura-related death during the study. Methods The Standardized Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) Query (SMQ) for 'embolic and thrombotic events' was run to investigate the occurrence of major thromboembolic events and exacerbations in the safety population of the TITAN study, which consisted of 72 patients, of whom 35 received caplacizumab and 37 received placebo. Results Four events (one pulmonary embolism and three aTTP exacerbations) were reported in four patients in the caplacizumab group, and 20 such events were reported in 14 patients in the placebo group (two acute myocardial infarctions, one ischemic stroke, one hemorrhagic stroke, one pulmonary embolism, one deep vein thrombosis, one venous thrombosis, and 13 aTTP exacerbations). Two of the placebo-treated patients died from aTTP during the study. Conclusion In total, 11.4% of caplacizumab

  19. Prey selection of corallivorous muricids at Koh Tao (Gulf of Thailand) four years after a major coral bleaching event

    Moerland, M.S.; Scott, C.M.; Hoeksema, B.W.

    2016-01-01

    Corallivorous Drupella (Muricidae) snails at Koh Tao are reported to have extended their range of prey species following a major coral bleaching event in 2010. Populations of their preferred Acropora prey had locally diminished in both size and abundance, and the snails had introduced free-living

  20. The transition to adulthood: A game changer? Panel analyses of the impact of major life events on sport participation

    Houten, J.M.A. van

    2017-01-01

    In this study, we investigated changes in and differences between the sport participation of individuals during the transition to adulthood, and the role of major life events that mark this transition. We employ a neo-Weberian theoretical framework related to changes in temporal and social resources

  1. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events after the ross procedure: A report from the german-dutch ross registry

    H. Sievers (Hans Hinrich); U. Stierle (Ulrich); E.I. Charitos (Efstratios); T. Hanke; M. Misfeld (Martin); J.F.M. Bechtel (Matthias); A. Gorski (Armin); U.F. Franke (Ulrich); B. Graf (Bernhard); D.R. Robinson (Derek); A.J.J.C. Bogers (Ad); A. Dodge-Khatami (Ali); J.O. Boehm (Juergen); J.G. Rein (Joachim); C.A. Botha (Cornelius); R. Lange (Rüdiger); J. Hoerer (Juergen); A. Moritz (Anton); T. Wahlers (Thorsten); M. Breuer (Martin); K. Ferrari-Kuehne (Katharina); R. Hetzer (Roland); M. Huebler (Michael); G. Ziemer (Gerhard); J.J.M. Takkenberg (Hanneke); W. Hemmer

    2010-01-01

    textabstractBackground-: The purpose of the study is to report major cardiac and cerebrovascular events after the Ross procedure in the large adult and pediatric population of the German-Dutch Ross registry. These data could provide an additional basis for discussions among physicians and a source

  2. The Earth's revolution, Moon phase, Syzygy astronomy events, their effect in disturbances of the Earth's geomagnetic field, and the ``Magnetic Storm Double Time Method'' for predicting the occurrence time, magnitude and epicenter location of earthquakes

    Chen, I. W.

    2003-04-01

    An increasing number of geomagnetic observation stations were established and operated in China since 1966 to the 1980s (and until present), effectively covering a large area of the nation. Close relativity between magnetic storms and earthquakes, as well as close relativity between the regional differences of magnetic disturbance recorded by these stations and the epicenter location of earthquakes, was discovered and observed by Tie-zheng Zhang during1966 - 1969. On such basis during 1969/1970, Zhang developed the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” for predicting the occurrence time, magnitude and epicenter location of EQs. By this method,.Zhang successfully predicted the Yunnan Tonghai Ms7.7 EQ Jan. 5, 1970 (occurrence date only), the Bohai ML5.2 EQ, Feb. 12, 1970 and other EQs, including the Haicheng Ms7.3 EQ Feb. 4, 1975, and the Tangshan Ms7.8 EQ July 28, 1976. On the basis of this method, Z.P. Shen developed the “Geomagnetic Deflection Angle Double Time Method” in 1970, and later developed the “Magnetic Storm - Moon Phase Double Time Method” in 1990s. With this method, Shen is able to predict the occurrence dates of most of the strongest EQs Ms37.5 on the Earth since 1991. Zhang also discovered that strong EQs often correspond with a number of sets of magnetic storms. Z.Q. Ren discovered close relativity exists between Syzygy astronomy events and such sets of magnetic storm as well as the occurrence dates of strong EQs. Computerized calculation of historical magnetic storm and EQ data proves the effectiveness of this method. Over 3,000 days of geomagnetic isoline images are computer processed by the Author from over 400,000 geomagnetic field data obtained by Zhang from over 100 geomagnetic observation stations during 1966 - 1984. Clear relativity is shown between the Earth’s revolution, Moon phases, Syzygy astronomy events related to the Earth, and their disturbance effect on the Earth’s geomagnetic field and the occurrence of EQs.

  3. Spatially Explicit Modelling of the Belgian Major Endurance Event 'The 100 km Dodentocht'.

    Steffie Van Nieuland

    Full Text Available 'The 100 km Dodentocht', which takes place annually and has its start in Bornem, Belgium, is a long distance march where participants have to cover a 100 km trail in at most 24 hours. The approximately 11 000 marchers per edition are tracked by making use of passive radio-frequency-identification (RFID. These tracking data were analyzed to build a spatially explicit marching model that gives insights into the dynamics of the event and allows to evaluate the effect of changes in the starting procedure of the event. For building the model, the empirical distribution functions (edf of the marching speeds at every section of the trail in between two consecutive checkpoints and of the checkpoints where marchers retire, are determined, taking into account age, gender, and marching speeds at previous sections. These distribution functions are then used to sample the consecutive speeds and retirement, and as such to simulate the times when individual marchers pass by the consecutive checkpoints. We concluded that the data-driven model simulates the event reliably. Furthermore, we tested three scenarios to reduce the crowdiness along the first part of the trail and in this way were able to conclude that either the start should be moved to a location outside the town center where the streets are at least 25% wider, or that the marchers should start in two groups at two different locations, and that these groups should ideally merge at about 20 km after the start. The crowdiness at the start might also be reduced by installing a bottleneck at the start in order to limit the number of marchers that can pass per unit of time. Consequently, the operating hours of the consecutive checkpoints would be longer. The developed framework can likewise be used to analyze and improve the operation of other endurance events if sufficient tracking data are available.

  4. Thyroid storm precipitated by duodenal ulcer perforation.

    Natsuda, Shoko; Nakashima, Yomi; Horie, Ichiro; Ando, Takao; Kawakami, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male) complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

  5. Thyroid Storm Precipitated by Duodenal Ulcer Perforation

    Shoko Natsuda

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

  6. Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

    Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

  7. Searching for storm water inflows in foul sewers using fibre-optic distributed temperature sensing.

    Schilperoort, Rémy; Hoppe, Holger; de Haan, Cornelis; Langeveld, Jeroen

    2013-01-01

    A major drawback of separate sewer systems is the occurrence of illicit connections: unintended sewer cross-connections that connect foul water outlets from residential or industrial premises to the storm water system and/or storm water outlets to the foul sewer system. The amount of unwanted storm water in foul sewer systems can be significant, resulting in a number of detrimental effects on the performance of the wastewater system. Efficient removal of storm water inflows into foul sewers requires knowledge of the exact locations of the inflows. This paper presents the use of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) monitoring data to localize illicit storm water inflows into foul sewer systems. Data results from two monitoring campaigns in foul sewer systems in the Netherlands and Germany are presented. For both areas a number of storm water inflow locations can be derived from the data. Storm water inflow can only be detected as long as the temperature of this inflow differs from the in-sewer temperatures prior to the event. Also, the in-sewer propagation of storm and wastewater can be monitored, enabling a detailed view on advection.

  8. Thromboembolic complications of thyroid storm.

    Min, T; Benjamin, S; Cozma, L

    2014-01-01

    Thyroid storm is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication of hyperthyroidism. Early recognition and prompt treatment are essential. Atrial fibrillation can occur in up to 40% of patients with thyroid storm. Studies have shown that hyperthyroidism increases the risk of thromboembolic events. There is no consensus with regard to the initiation of anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in severe thyrotoxicosis. Anticoagulation is not routinely initiated if the risk is low on a CHADS2 score; however, this should be considered in patients with thyroid storm or severe thyrotoxicosis with impending storm irrespective of the CHADS2 risk, as it appears to increase the risk of thromboembolic episodes. Herein, we describe a case of thyroid storm complicated by massive pulmonary embolism. Diagnosis of thyroid storm is based on clinical findings. Early recognition and prompt treatment could lead to a favourable outcome.Hypercoagulable state is a recognised complication of thyrotoxicosis.Atrial fibrillation is strongly associated with hyperthyroidism and thyroid storm.Anticoagulation should be considered for patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and atrial fibrillation irrespective of the CHADS2 score.Patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and clinical evidence of thrombosis should be immediately anticoagulated until hyperthyroidism is under control.

  9. Time to Wound Healing and Major Adverse Limb Events in Patients with Critical Limb Ischemia Treated with Endovascular Revascularization.

    Reed, Grant W; Salehi, Negar; Giglou, Pejman R; Kafa, Rami; Malik, Umair; Maier, Michael; Shishehbor, Mehdi H

    2016-10-01

    There are few studies that quantify the impact of time to wound healing on outcomes after endovascular revascularization of critical limb ischemia (CLI). In this retrospective study, 179 patients with CLI and tissue loss were assessed for adverse events after endovascular therapy. Associations between time to wound healing and outcomes were determined via Cox proportional hazards analysis. The long-term probability of events was assessed with Kaplan-Meier analysis. The primary end point was major adverse limb events (MALE-major amputation, surgical endarterectomy, or bypass). Secondary end points were major amputation, need for repeat endovascular therapy, and mortality. After multivariable adjustment for time-dependent wound healing, age, renal function, diabetes, and Rutherford class, independent predictors of MALE included the presence of an unhealed wound (hazard ratio [HR], 5.2; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.3-11.8; P wounds compared with healed wounds (log-rank P wounds healed within 4 months had a lower probability of MALE than patients who did not heal by 4 months (log-rank, P = 0.04). Unhealed wounds were also independently associated with major amputation (HR, 9.0; 95% CI, 2.6-31.1; P = 0.0004), and patients whose wounds healed by 3 months had less major amputation (log-rank, P = 0.04). Unhealed wounds were independently associated with increased risk of mortality (HR, 42.7; 95% CI, 5.7-319.0; P = 0.002) but not repeat revascularization. Unhealed wounds are an independent risk factor for MALE, major amputation, and mortality after endovascular treatment of CLI. Wound healing within 3 months is associated with less risk of major amputation, and within 4 months less risk of MALE. A focus should be on achieving wound healing as fast as possible in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Socioeconomic variation in incidence of primary and secondary major cardiovascular disease events: an Australian population-based prospective cohort study.

    Korda, Rosemary J; Soga, Kay; Joshy, Grace; Calabria, Bianca; Attia, John; Wong, Deborah; Banks, Emily

    2016-11-21

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) disproportionately affects disadvantaged people, but reliable quantitative evidence on socioeconomic variation in CVD incidence in Australia is lacking. This study aimed to quantify socioeconomic variation in rates of primary and secondary CVD events in mid-age and older Australians. Baseline data (2006-2009) from the 45 and Up Study, an Australian cohort involving 267,153 men and women aged ≥ 45, were linked to hospital and death data (to December 2013). Outcomes comprised first event - death or hospital admission - for major CVD combined, as well as myocardial infarction and stroke, in those with and without prior CVD (secondary and primary events, respectively). Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for each outcome in relation to education (and income and area-level disadvantage), separately by age group (45-64, 65-79, and ≥ 80 years), adjusting for age and sex, and additional sociodemographic factors. There were 18,207 primary major CVD events over 1,144,845 years of follow-up (15.9/1000 person-years), and 20,048 secondary events over 260,357 years (77.0/1000 person-years). For both primary and secondary events, incidence increased with decreasing education, with the absolute difference between education groups largest for secondary events. Age-sex adjusted hazard ratios were highest in the 45-64 years group: for major CVDs, HR (no qualifications vs university degree) = 1.62 (95% CI: 1.49-1.77) for primary events, and HR = 1.49 (1.34-1.65) for secondary events; myocardial infarction HR = 2.31 (1.87-2.85) and HR = 2.57 (1.90-3.47) respectively; stroke HR = 1.48 (1.16-1.87) and HR = 1.97 (1.42-2.74) respectively. Similar but attenuated results were seen in older age groups, and with income. For area-level disadvantage, CVD gradients were weak and non-significant in older people (> 64 years). Individual-level data are important for quantifying socioeconomic variation in CVD incidence, which

  11. Storm pulse chemographs of saturation index and carbon dioxide pressure: implications for shifting recharge sources during storm events in the karst aquifer at Fort Campbell, Kentucky/Tennessee, USA

    Vesper, Dorothy J.; White, William B.

    Continuous records of discharge, specific conductance, and temperature were collected through a series of storm pulses on two limestone springs at Fort Campbell, western Kentucky/Tennessee, USA. Water samples, collected at short time intervals across the same storm pulses, were analyzed for calcium, magnesium, bicarbonate, total organic carbon, and pH. Chemographs of calcium, calcite saturation index, and carbon dioxide partial pressure were superimposed on the storm hydrographs. Calcium concentration and specific conductance track together and dip to a minimum either coincident with the peak of the hydrograph or lag slightly behind it. The CO2 pressure continues to rise on the recession limb of the hydrograph and, as a result, the saturation index decreases on the recession limb of the hydrograph. These results are interpreted as being due to dispersed infiltration through CO2-rich soils lagging the arrival of quickflow from sinkhole recharge in the transport of storm flow to the springs. Karst spring hydrographs reflect not only the changing mix of base flow and storm flow but also a shift in source of recharge water over the course of the storm. L'enregistrement en continu du débit, de la conductivité et de la température de l'eau a été réalisé au cours d'une série de crues à deux sources émergeant de calcaires, à Fort Campbell (Kentucky occidental, Tennessee, États-Unis). Des échantillons d'eau, prélevés à de courts pas de temps lors de ces crues, ont été analysés pour le calcium, le magnésium, les bicarbonates, le carbone organique total et le pH. Les chimiogrammes de calcium, d'indice de saturation de la calcite et de la pression partielle en CO2 ont été superposés aux hydrogrammes de crue. La concentration en calcium et la conductivité de l'eau se suivent bien et passent par un minimum correspondant au pic de l'hydrogramme ou légèrement retardé. La pression partielle en CO2 continue de croître au cours de la récession de l

  12. Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

    2015-11-01

    secondary terms • integration of joint probability of storm responses, including extratropical events. A diagram summarizing the JPM methodology is... Extratropical Cyclones. The GPD- based approach defined above was used to compute the final storm response statistics for XCs. ERDC/CHL TR-15-5 39...from the numerical modeling of all storms , tropical and extratropical . As discussed in Section 2.1.2, JPM methodology generally consists of the

  13. Managing the risk of extreme climate events in Australian major wheat production systems

    Luo, Qunying; Trethowan, Richard; Tan, Daniel K. Y.

    2018-06-01

    Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as drought, frost risk and heat stress cause significant economic losses in Australia. The risk posed by ECEs in the wheat production systems of Australia could be better managed through the identification of safe flowering (SFW) and optimal time of sowing (TOS) windows. To address this issue, three locations (Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin), three cultivars (Suntop and Gregory for Narrabri, Mace for both Roseworthy and Merredin) and 20 TOS at 1-week intervals between 1 April and 12 August for the period from 1957 to 2007 were evaluated using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model. Simulation results show that (1) the average frequency of frost events decreased with TOS from 8 to 0 days (d) across the four cases (the combination of locations and cultivars), (2) the average frequency of heat stress events increased with TOS across all cases from 0 to 10 d, (3) soil moisture stress (SMS) increased with earlier TOS before reaching a plateau and then slightly decreasing for Suntop and Gregory at Narrabri and Mace at Roseworthy while SMS increased with TOS for Mace at Merredin from 0.1 to 0.8, (4) Mace at Merredin had the earliest and widest SFW (216-260) while Mace at Roseworthy had latest SFW (257-280), (5) frost risk and heat stress determine SFW at wetter sites (i.e. Narrabri and Roseworthy) while frost risk and SMS determine SFW at drier site (i.e. Merredin) and (6) the optimal TOS (window) to maximise wheat yield are 6-20 May, 13-27 May and 15 April at Narrabri, Roseworthy and Merredin, respectively. These findings provide important and specific information for wheat growers about the management of ECE risk on farm. Furthermore, the coupling of the APSIM crop models with state-of-the-art seasonal and intra-seasonal climate forecast information provides an important tool for improved management of the risk of ECEs in economically important cropping industries in the foreseeable future.

  14. Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention in patients without diabetes mellitus.

    Ekmekci, Ahmet; Cicek, Gokhan; Uluganyan, Mahmut; Gungor, Baris; Osman, Faizel; Ozcan, Kazim Serhan; Bozbay, Mehmet; Ertas, Gokhan; Zencirci, Aycan; Sayar, Nurten; Eren, Mehmet

    2014-02-01

    Admission hyperglycemia is associated with high inhospital and long-term adverse events in patients that undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We aimed to evaluate whether hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality. We prospectively analyzed 503 consecutive patients. The patients were divided into tertiles according to the admission glucose levels. Tertile I: glucose 145 mg/dL (n = 169). Inhospital mortality was 0 in tertile I, 2 in tertile II, and 9 in tertile III (P < .02). Cardiogenic shock occurred more frequently in tertile III compared to tertiles I and II (10% vs 4.1% and 0.6%, respectively, P = .01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that patients in tertile III had significantly higher risk of inhospital major adverse cardiac events compared to patients in tertile I (odds ratio: 9.55, P < .02). Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital adverse cardiac events in mortality and acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in patients that underwent primary PCI.

  15. Cloud Formation and Water Transport on Mars after Major Outflow Events

    Santiago, D. L.; Colaprete, A.; Kreslavsky, M.; Kahre, M. A.; Asphaug, E.

    2012-01-01

    The triggering of a robust water cycle on Mars might have been caused by the gigantic flooding events evidenced by outflow channels. We use the Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) to test this hypothesis, studying how these presumably abrupt eruptions of water might have affected the climate of Mars in the past. We model where the water ultimately went as part of a transient atmospheric water cycle, to answer questions including: (1) Can sudden introductions of large amounts of water on the Martian surface lead to a new equilibrated water cycle? (2) What are the roles of water vapor and water ice clouds to sudden changes in the water cycle on Mars? (3) How are radiative feedbacks involved with this? (4) What is the ultimate fate of the outflow water? (5) Can we tie certain geological features to outflow water redistributed by the atmosphere?

  16. The influence of a major sporting event upon emergency department attendances; A retrospective cross-national European study

    Colón-González, Felipe J.; Fouillet, Anne; Elliot, Alex J.; Caserio-Schonemann, Céline; Hughes, Thomas C.; Gallagher, Naomh; Morbey, Roger A.; Smith, Gillian E.; Thomas, Daniel Rh.; Lake, Iain R.

    2018-01-01

    Major sporting events may influence attendance levels at hospital emergency departments (ED). Previous research has focussed on the impact of single games, or wins/losses for specific teams/countries, limiting wider generalisations. Here we explore the impact of the Euro 2016 football championships on ED attendances across four participating nations (England, France, Northern Ireland, Wales), using a single methodology. Match days were found to have no significant impact upon daily ED attendances levels. Focussing upon hourly attendances, ED attendances across all countries in the four hour pre-match period were statistically significantly lower than would be expected (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94–0.99) and further reduced during matches (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91–0.97). In the 4 hour post-match period there was no significant increase in attendances (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99–1.04). However, these impacts were highly variable between individual matches: for example in the 4 hour period following the final, involving France, the number of ED attendances in France increased significantly (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13–1.42). Overall our results indicate relatively small impacts of major sporting events upon ED attendances. The heterogeneity observed makes it difficult for health providers to predict how major sporting events may affect ED attendances but supports the future development of compatible systems in different countries to support cross-border public health surveillance. PMID:29898000

  17. The influence of a major sporting event upon emergency department attendances; A retrospective cross-national European study.

    Hughes, Helen E; Colón-González, Felipe J; Fouillet, Anne; Elliot, Alex J; Caserio-Schonemann, Céline; Hughes, Thomas C; Gallagher, Naomh; Morbey, Roger A; Smith, Gillian E; Thomas, Daniel Rh; Lake, Iain R

    2018-01-01

    Major sporting events may influence attendance levels at hospital emergency departments (ED). Previous research has focussed on the impact of single games, or wins/losses for specific teams/countries, limiting wider generalisations. Here we explore the impact of the Euro 2016 football championships on ED attendances across four participating nations (England, France, Northern Ireland, Wales), using a single methodology. Match days were found to have no significant impact upon daily ED attendances levels. Focussing upon hourly attendances, ED attendances across all countries in the four hour pre-match period were statistically significantly lower than would be expected (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99) and further reduced during matches (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.97). In the 4 hour post-match period there was no significant increase in attendances (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04). However, these impacts were highly variable between individual matches: for example in the 4 hour period following the final, involving France, the number of ED attendances in France increased significantly (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.42). Overall our results indicate relatively small impacts of major sporting events upon ED attendances. The heterogeneity observed makes it difficult for health providers to predict how major sporting events may affect ED attendances but supports the future development of compatible systems in different countries to support cross-border public health surveillance.

  18. [Electrical storm].

    Barnay, C; Taieb, J; Morice, R

    2007-11-01

    Electrical storm is defined as repeated occurrence of severe ventricular arrhythmias requiring multiple cardioversions, two or more or three or more following different studies. The clinical aspect can sometimes be made of multiple, self aggravating, life threatening accesses. There are three main clinical circumstances of occurrence: in patients equipped with intracardiac defibrillators, during the acute phase of myocardial infarction and in Brugada syndrome. 10 to 15% of patients with cardiac defibrillators are subject to electrical storms in a period of two years. The causative arrhythmia is most often ventricular tachycardia than ventricular fibrillation, especially in secondary prevention and if the initial arrhythmias justifying the device was a ventricular tachycardia. Precipitaing factors are present in one third of cases, mainly acute heart failure, ionic disorders and arrhythmogenic drugs. Predictive factors are age, left ventricular ejection fractionelectrical shock in 50% of cases, antitachycardi stimulation in 30% and in 20% by association of the two. Treatment, after elimination of inappropriate shocks, is mainly based on beta-blockers and amiodarone, class I antiarrhythmics, lidocaïne or bretylium in some cases, and sedation pushed to general anesthesia in some cases. Radio-frequency ablation and even heart transplantation have been proposed in extreme cases. Quinidine has been proved efficient in cases of Brugada syndrome.

  19. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Jay P. Sah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  20. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Sah, J.P.; Ross, M.S.; Ross, M.S.; Ogurcak, D.E.; Snyder, J.R.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on post fire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with under story type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pine lands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  1. Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  2. The major stressful life events and cancer: stress history and cancer.

    Tas, Faruk; Karalar, Umran; Aliustaoglu, Mehmet; Keskin, Serkan; Can, Gulbeyaz; Cinar, Fatma Ebru

    2012-06-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze the extent of stressful life events' etiology and to compare socio-demographic and medical characteristics of the presence and absence of stress in Turkish cancer patients. Patients with cancer who attended ambulatory patient care units answered the questionnaires. Medical information was reviewed from chart data. The study population comprised 465 women (60.5%) and 303 men (39.5%), in total 768 cases. The median age was 53 years, ranging between 18 and 94. Three-hundred and twenty patients (41.7%) had at least one type of stress since last year of the time of initial diagnosis. Among patients had stress, the median number of stress modalities presented was 1 (range 1-6). Death, lack of livelihood, quarrel, illness, and debt almost always consisted of stress types. History of stress within last year was found more in women (66.3% vs. 56.5%, P = 0.006) and overweight patients (57.5% vs. 47.2%, P = 0.005). Similarly, among cancer types, only patients with breast cancer (41.9% vs. 31.7%, P = 0.04) had lived more stressful situation. However, the married patients (72.2% vs. 80.6%, P = 0.03) had less stress. Patients with gastric cancer had more frequent debt (29.0%, P history (21.4%, P = 0.001). Additionally, in lung cancer patients, their rate of livelihood difficulty was highly less than average (2.4%, P = 0.003). We found that overweight patients had more illness history (68.9% vs. 51.6%, P = 0.004), patients who were not working had more death history (89.7% vs. 78%, P = 0.01), and female patients had more quarrel history (78.2% vs. 60.5%, P = 0.002). Likewise, history of debt in patients who is a member of large family (56.2% vs. 27.4%, P = 0.01) was more frequent. Additionally, the lack of livelihood was prominent in urban patients (92.8% vs. 78.6%, P = 0.002) and in patients with low income (48.5% vs. 66.7%, P = 0.004). The question of whether or not psychological factors originated from stressful life events have an

  3. Does organisational justice protect from sickness absence following a major life event? A Finnish public sector study.

    Elovainio, M; Kivimäki, M; Linna, A; Brockner, J; van den Bos, K; Greenberg, J; Pentti, J; Virtanen, M; Vahtera, J

    2010-05-01

    It has been shown that fairness perceptions have a strong impact on health, especially under conditions of great work stress. The aim of this study was to extend previous research in studying whether working in high justice workplace would protect from health effects following environmental stressors outside work. Using a prospective longitudinal design, the relationships between organisational justice and sickness-related absences both before and after a major life event among 25 459 public sector employees working in 2551 work units were studied. Sickness absences covered the period from 36 months before the event until 30 months after the event. The increase in sickness absences after the event was larger and stayed at a higher level even 30 months after the event, among those who perceived the management practices in their work unit to be relatively unfair. Similar patterns were found for each of the distributive, procedural and interactional dimensions of organisational justice. Fair organisational and managerial procedures may buffer the negative health effects of psychosocial health risks outside work.

  4. The interaction of combined effects of the BDNF and PRKCG genes and negative life events in major depressive disorder.

    Yang, Chunxia; Sun, Ning; Liu, Zhifen; Li, Xinrong; Xu, Yong; Zhang, Kerang

    2016-03-30

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a mental disorder that results from complex interplay between multiple and partially overlapping sets of susceptibility genes and environmental factors. The brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and Protein kinase C gamma type (PRKCG) are logical candidate genes in MDD. Among diverse environmental factors, negative life events have been suggested to exert a crucial impact on brain development. In the present study, we hypothesized that interactions between genetic variants in BDNF and PRKCG and negative life events may play an important role in the development of MDD. We recruited a total of 406 patients with MDD and 391 age- and gender-matched control subjects. Gene-environment interactions were analyzed using generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR). Under a dominant model, we observed a significant three-way interaction among BDNF rs6265, PRKCG rs3745406, and negative life events. The gene-environment combination of PRKCG rs3745406 C allele, BDNF rs6265 G allele and high level of negative life events (C-G-HN) was significantly associated with MDD (OR, 5.97; 95% CI, 2.71-13.15). To our knowledge, this is the first report of evidence that the BDNF-PRKCG interaction may modify the relationship between negative life events and MDD in the Chinese population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. [Diagnosis and treatment of thyroid storm].

    Akamizu, Takashi

    2012-11-01

    Thyrotoxic storm is a life-threatening condition requiring emergency treatment. Neither its epidemiological data nor diagnostic criteria have been fully established. We clarified the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of thyroid storm using nationwide surveys and then formulate diagnostic criteria for thyroid storm. To perform the nationwide survey on thyroid storm, we first developed tentative diagnostic criteria for thyroid storm, mainly based upon the literature (the first edition). We analyzed the relationship of the major features of thyroid storm to mortality and to certain other features. Finally, based upon the findings of these surveys, we revised the diagnostic criteria. Thyrotoxic storm is still a life-threatening disorder with over 10% mortality in Japan.

  6. Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

  7. Short-term degradation of air quality during major firework events in Delhi, India

    Shivani; Gadi, Ranu; Saxena, Mohit; Sharma, Sudhir Kumar; Mandal, Tuhin Kumar

    2018-04-01

    The effect of firework events on air quality was assessed from ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) collected during the Diwali period in two consecutive years, i.e., November 2015 and October 2016. The extensive firework activities led to the short-term degradation of air quality during the Diwali days. PM2.5 samples were chemically characterised for elements, water-soluble ionic species, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC). Ba, K, Sr, S, Mg and Na showed significant increases in concentration on Diwali days compared to pre-Diwali days which revealed their association with firecrackers. Concentration of SO4 2-, NO3 -, Cl-, K+ and NH4 + ions contributed to the increases in PM2.5 concentration on Diwali days. Higher OC/EC ratios indicated the formation of secondary organic carbon during the Diwali period. This study concludes that the high PM2.5 level during Diwali 2016 was a result of contribution from fireworks on the Diwali night, trans-regional movement of pollutants due to crop residue burning, low wind speed (0.15 m s-1), and high humidity. It was observed that short-term exposure to Diwali is plausible to generate 1.3% increase in non-carcinogenic hazard index due to elements Al and Ba during Diwali 2016, whereas no significant variation was observed for the carcinogenic risk due to Pb. However, in 2015, the increase in non-carcinogenic hazard index was appreciably lower as compared to 2016.

  8. Oil and gas: year full of major events and dramatic changes

    Hirman, K.

    2004-01-01

    European gas industry encountered a historical precedent this February. Russian gas concern Gazprom has for the first time in its over thirty-year history of gas delivery from Siberia to Europe deliberately stopped the export. Even though this did not last for more then one day, customers in Latvia immediately noticed problems and also Polish customers mentioned some losses. Slovakia, still fully dependent on Russian gas supplies and at the same time major transported of Russian gas to European, was not touched by this situation as the deliveries were stopped on gas pipeline Jamal-Europe delivering gas to Germany through Belarus and Poland. But this affair can become a major issue in gas and political relations between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine and can also have a long-term impact on a dialog between Europe and Russia and consequently on building of new gas pipelines. And that could have a major impact on Slovakia's position as a transit country. Important for Slovakia is also the ongoing discussion about Ukrainian pipeline Odessa-Brody. A political decision made by Ukrainian cabinet that this pipeline should only be used to transport oil from Caspian Sea can give Slovakia the opportunity to diversify its oil import and at the same time increase the transit volumes should German refineries show interest in this transit route. On the other hand ratification of an intergovernmental agreement on integration of pipelines Druzba and Adria by Ukrainian Parliaments is also good news for Bratislava. This step politically opened the possibility to deliver Russian oil through Slovakia to Croatian Omisajl and from there with tankers to Europe and Northern America. The capacity of pipeline Druzba in Ukraine and Slovakia is not sufficient to take both the increased volumes of Russian and Caspian oil these two projects are competing for the free capacity. And the process and outcome of this competition may be of direct influence on Slovak interests. At the moment there are

  9. Seasonal timing of first rain storms affects rare plant population dynamics

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

    2011-01-01

    A major challenge in forecasting the ecological consequences of climate change is understanding the relative importance of changes to mean conditions vs. changes to discrete climatic events, such as storms, frosts, or droughts. Here we show that the first major storm of the growing season strongly influences the population dynamics of three rare and endangered annual plant species in a coastal California (USA) ecosystem. In a field experiment we used moisture barriers and water addition to manipulate the timing and temperature associated with first major rains of the season. The three focal species showed two- to fivefold variation in per capita population growth rates between the different storm treatments, comparable to variation found in a prior experiment imposing eightfold differences in season-long precipitation. Variation in germination was a major demographic driver of how two of three species responded to the first rains. For one of these species, the timing of the storm was the most critical determinant of its germination, while the other showed enhanced germination with colder storm temperatures. The role of temperature was further supported by laboratory trials showing enhanced germination in cooler treatments. Our work suggests that, because of species-specific cues for demographic transitions such as germination, changes to discrete climate events may be as, if not more, important than changes to season-long variables.

  10. Statistical Relationship between Sawtooth Oscillations and Geomagnetic Storms

    Jae-Hun Kim

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated a statistical relationship between sawtooth oscillations and geomagnetic storms during 2000-2004. First of all we selected a total of 154 geomagnetic storms based on the Dst index, and distinguished between different drivers such as Coronal Mass Ejection (CME and Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR. Also, we identified a total of 48 sawtooth oscillation events based on geosynchronous energetic particle data for the same 2000-2004 period. We found that out of the 154 storms identified, 47 storms indicated the presence of sawtooth oscillations. Also, all but one sawtooth event identified occurred during a geomagnetic storm interval. It was also found that sawtooth oscillation events occur more frequently for storms driven by CME (˜62% than for storms driven by CIR (˜30%. In addition, sawtooth oscillations occurred mainly (˜82% in the main phase of storms for CME-driven storms while they occurred mostly (˜78% during the storm recovery phase for CIR-driven storms. Next we have examined the average characteristics of the Bz component of IMF, and solar wind speed, which were the main components for driving geomagnetic storm. We found that for most of the sawtooth events, the IMF Bz corresponds to --15 to 0 nT and the solar wind speed was in the range of 400˜700 km/s. We found that there was a weak tendency that the number of teeth for a given sawtooth event interval was proportional to the southward IMF Bz magnitude.

  11. Extreme Geomagnetic Storms – 1868–2010

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Lefèvre, L.; Dumbović, M.

    2016-01-01

    presents our investigation of the corresponding solar eventsand their characteristics. The storms were selected based on their intensity in the aa index,which constitutes the longest existing continuous series of geomagnetic activity. They areanalyzed statistically in the context of more well...... occurring in May 1921 and the Quebec storm from March 1989. We identifykey characteristics of the storms by combining several different available data sources, listsof storm sudden commencements (SSCs) signifying occurrence of interplanetary shocks,solar wind in-situ measurements, neutron monitor data...... %), Forbushdecreases (100 %), and energetic solar proton events (70 %). A quantitative comparison ofthese associations relative to less intense storms is also presented. Most notably, we findthat most often the extreme storms are characterized by a complexity that is associated with multiple, often interacting, solar...

  12. New storm water regulations impact industry

    Gemar, C.

    1991-01-01

    In November 1990, new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations aimed at governing the discharge of storm water from industrial facilities became effective. Because some industrial runoff contains toxics and other pollutants, the EPA considers storm water a major source of water contamination. The new regulations will have a profound impact on the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit requirements for industry. This paper summarizes the new storm water regulations, focusing on the requirements for industrial facilities. It also presents suggestions for compliance

  13. Impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus on in-hospital-mortality after major cardiovascular events in Spain (2002-2014).

    de Miguel-Yanes, José M; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Méndez-Bailón, Manuel; de Miguel-Díez, Javier; Lopez-de-Andrés, Ana

    2017-10-10

    Diabetes mellitus has long been associated with cardiovascular events. Nevertheless, the higher burden of traditional cardiovascular risk factors reported in high-income countries is offset by a more widespread use of preventive measures and revascularization or other invasive procedures. The aim of this investigation is to describe trends in number of cases and outcomes, in-hospital mortality (IHM) and length of hospital stay (LHS), of hospital admissions for major cardiovascular events between type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and matched non-diabetes patients. Retrospective study using National Hospital Discharge Database, analyzed in 4 years 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, in Spain. We included patients (≥ 40 years old) with a primary diagnosis of myocardial infarction, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, aortic aneurysm and dissection and acute lower limb ischemia in people with T2DM. Cases were matched with controls (without T2DM) by ICD-9-CM codes, sex, age, province of residence and year. We selected 130,011 matched couples (50,427 with myocardial infarction, 60,236 with stroke, 2599 with aortic aneurysm and dissection and 16,749 with acute lower limb ischemia. Among T2DM patients we found increasing numbers of admissions overtime for stroke (10,794 in 2002 vs 17,559 in 2014), aortic aneurysm and dissection (390 vs 841) and acute lower limb ischemia (3854 vs. 4548). People were progressively older (except for myocardial infarction), had more comorbidities (especially T2DM patients), and were more frequently coded overtime for cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, obesity, hypertension, lipid disorders) and renal diseases. LHS and IHM declined overtime, though IHM only did it significantly in T2DM patients. Multivariable adjustment showed that T2DM patients had a significantly 15% higher mortality rate during admission for myocardial infarction, a 6% higher mortality for stroke, and a 6% higher mortality rate for "all cardiovascular events combined", than non

  14. Major Sports events in Brazil: from the expression of brazilian sports policy to the urban neodevelopmentalist planning concept

    Lino Castellani Filho

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We will seek some considerations about the major sports events in the Brazilian  territory as  the main expression of a particular logic of urban development and less of a sports policy itself, focusing on its impact in South America. In particular, we will focus on the paradox of the official discourse centered on the recognition of the Sport as Social Right and of a practice committed to the neodevelopmentalist conception of urban planning, ratifying its apprehension as a product likely to be commercialized having high appeal in the field of business.

  15. Does the Impact of Major Stressful Life Events on the Risk of Developing Depression Change Throughout Life?

    Kessing, L.V.; Agerbo, E.; Mortensen, P.B.

    2003-01-01

    for Longitudinal Labour Market Research. The study includes data on all admissions at psychiatric wards in Denmark from 1981 to 1998 and data on sociodemographic variables and death/suicide of first-degree relatives. RESULTS: A total of 13 006 patients who received a diagnosis of depression at the first ever...... at a psychiatric ward with a diagnosis of depression whereas death of a relative by causes other than suicide had no significant effect. In general, no interaction was found with age with any of the variables, totally, or for men or women, separately. CONCLUSIONS: The susceptibility to major life stressors does......BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether there is an interaction of ageing on the association between major life events and onset of depression. METHOD: This was a population-based nested case-control study with linkage of the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register and the Integrated Database...

  16. THE POLICING OF MAJOR EVENTS IN CANADA: LESSONS FROM TORONTO’S G20 AND VANCOUVER’S OLYMPICS

    Wes Pue

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Major events ranging from sporting events to major international conferences too often result in disorder, deployment of riot squads, and mass arrests. Events surrounding a meeting of the G20 in Toronto and those at Vancouver’s Winter Olympics provide insight into the ways in which things can go wrong and the ways in which they can go well at major events. This article employs a “thick history” of events in order to explore gaps in Canadian law, including gaps between “law in the books” and “law in action.”      The legal frameworks governing large-scale events affect the likelihood of success measured in public safety, minimization of disorder, and protection of basic liberties. Surprisingly, large events often proceed without the benefit of a developed legal framework, leading to confusion among federal police, local police, and civil authority. We assess past reliance on the common law, a Vancouver City bylaw, Ontario’s Public Works Protection Act [PWPA], and the policing and security provisions of the federal Foreign Missions and International Organizations Act (Foreign Missions Act in order to determine which sorts of legal arrangements are most conducive to successful event management. Since major events in Canada are most often developed in law’s penumbra, without the benefit of clear legal authority or statutory direction governing the measures that are required, both effective management and ordinary liberties are compromised. A “worst of both worlds” outcome destabilizes police–citizen relationships and leaves individuals uncertain as to the durability of their rights of property, speech, assembly, movement, and personal integrity. Equally, police forces are left insecure as to the lawful means by which they should perform their duties. A comparison of the two events provides the pathology and a prescription, illustrating the need for legislation to govern the management of major events.   Trop souvent, la

  17. Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

    Mornet, Alexandre; Opitz, Thomas; Luzi, Michel; Loisel, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Analysis on the nitrogen drilling accident of Well Qionglai 1 (I: Major inducement events of the accident

    Yingfeng Meng

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen drilling in poor tight gas sandstone should be safe because of very low gas production. But a serious accident of fire blowout occurred during nitrogen drilling of Well Qionglai 1. This is the first nitrogen drilling accident in China, which was beyond people's knowledge about the safety of nitrogen drilling and brought negative effects on the development of gas drilling technology still in start-up phase and resulted in dramatic reduction in application of gas drilling. In order to form a correct understanding, the accident was systematically analyzed, the major events resulting in this accident were inferred. It is discovered for the first time that violent ejection of rock clasts and natural gas occurred due to the sudden burst of downhole rock when the fractured tight gas zone was penetrated during nitrogen drilling, which has been named as “rock burst and blowout by gas bomb”, short for “rock burst”. Then all the induced events related to the rock burst are as following: upthrust force on drilling string from rock burst, bridging-off formed and destructed repeatedly at bit and centralizer, and so on. However, the most direct important event of the accident turns out to be the blockage in the blooie pipe from rock burst clasts and the resulted high pressure at the wellhead. The high pressure at the wellhead causes the blooie pipe to crack and trigged blowout and deflagration of natural gas, which is the direct presentation of the accident.

  19. Examining the relationship between lifetime stressful life events and the onset of major depression in Chinese women☆

    Tao, Ming; Li, Yihan; Xie, Dong; Wang, Zhiyang; Qiu, Jianying; Wu, Wenyuan; Sun, Jing; Wang, Zhoubing; Tao, Danhong; Zhao, Hongsu; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Jingxuan; Gao, Chengge; Niu, Qihui; Li, Qiang; Liu, Shanming; Liu, Jia; Zhang, Yunshu; He, Qiang; Rong, Han; Gan, Zhaoyu; Li, Jianying; Chen, Xiansheng; Pan, Jiyang; Li, Yi; Cui, Yanping; Han, Wei; Ma, Huan; Xie, Shoufu; Jin, Guixing; Li, Ling; Zhang, Ruiling; Tan, Qingrong; Zhang, Jun; Guan, Jing; Shi, Shenxun; Chen, Yiping; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Flint, Jonathan; Gao, Jingfang

    2011-01-01

    Background In European and US studies, patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) report more stressful life events (SLEs) than controls, but this relationship has rarely been studied in Chinese populations. Methods Sixteen lifetime SLEs were assessed at interview in two groups of Han Chinese women: 1970 clinically ascertained with recurrent MDD and 2597 matched controls. Diagnostic and other risk factor information was assessed at personal interview. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated by logistic regression. Results 60% of controls and 72% of cases reported at least one lifetime SLE. Fourteen of the sixteen SLEs occurred significantly more frequently in those with MDD (median odds ratio of 1.6). The three SLEs most strongly associated with risk for MDD (OR > 3.0) preceded the onset of MDD the majority of the time: rape (82%), physical abuse (100%) and serious neglect (99%). Limitations Our results may apply to females only. SLEs were rated retrospectively and are subject to biases in recollection. We did not assess contextual information for each life event. Conclusions More severe SLEs are more strongly associated with MDD. These results support the involvement of psychosocial adversity in the etiology of MDD in China. PMID:21821294

  20. Examining the relationship between lifetime stressful life events and the onset of major depression in Chinese women.

    Tao, Ming; Li, Yihan; Xie, Dong; Wang, Zhiyang; Qiu, Jianying; Wu, Wenyuan; Sun, Jing; Wang, Zhoubing; Tao, Danhong; Zhao, Hongsu; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Jingxuan; Gao, Chengge; Niu, Qihui; Li, Qiang; Liu, Shanming; Liu, Jia; Zhang, Yunshu; He, Qiang; Rong, Han; Gan, Zhaoyu; Li, Jianying; Chen, Xiansheng; Pan, Jiyang; Li, Yi; Cui, Yanping; Han, Wei; Ma, Huan; Xie, Shoufu; Jin, Guixing; Li, Ling; Zhang, Ruiling; Tan, Qingrong; Zhang, Jun; Guan, Jing; Shi, Shenxun; Chen, Yiping; Kendler, Kenneth S; Flint, Jonathan; Gao, Jingfang

    2011-12-01

    In European and US studies, patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) report more stressful life events (SLEs) than controls, but this relationship has rarely been studied in Chinese populations. Sixteen lifetime SLEs were assessed at interview in two groups of Han Chinese women: 1970 clinically ascertained with recurrent MDD and 2597 matched controls. Diagnostic and other risk factor information was assessed at personal interview. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated by logistic regression. 60% of controls and 72% of cases reported at least one lifetime SLE. Fourteen of the sixteen SLEs occurred significantly more frequently in those with MDD (median odds ratio of 1.6). The three SLEs most strongly associated with risk for MDD (OR>3.0) preceded the onset of MDD the majority of the time: rape (82%), physical abuse (100%) and serious neglect (99%). Our results may apply to females only. SLEs were rated retrospectively and are subject to biases in recollection. We did not assess contextual information for each life event. More severe SLEs are more strongly associated with MDD. These results support the involvement of psychosocial adversity in the etiology of MDD in China. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Solar noise storms

    Elgaroy, E O

    2013-01-01

    Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

  2. Space storms as natural hazards

    L. I. Dorman

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Eruptive activity of the Sun produces a chain of extreme geophysical events: high-speed solar wind, magnetic field disturbances in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field and also intense fluxes of energetic particles. Space storms can potentially destroy spacecrafts, adversely affect astronauts and airline crew and human health on the Earth, lead to pipeline breaking, melt electricity transformers, and discontinue transmission. In this paper we deal with two consequences of space storms: (i rise in failures in the operation of railway devices and (ii rise in myocardial infarction and stroke incidences.

  3. Elevated serum osteoprotegerin levels predict in-hospital major adverse cardiac events in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction.

    Çanga, Aytun; Durakoğlugil, Murtaza Emre; Erdoğan, Turan; Kirbaş, Aynur; Yilmaz, Adnan; Çiçek, Yüksel; Ergül, Elif; Çetin, Mustafa; Kocaman, Sinan Altan

    2012-11-01

    The aim of our study was to investigate whether osteoprotegerin (OPG) is related to in-hospital major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and reperfusion parameters in patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The OPG/receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB (RANK)/RANK ligand pathway has recently been associated with atherosclerosis. OPG is a predictor of cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome. This study included 96 consecutive patients with STEMI undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Two groups with equal number of patients were formed according to median OPG level. The association of OPG levels on admission with post-procedural reperfusion parameters, and in-hospital MACE were investigated. Patients with higher OPG levels displayed higher neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, admission troponin, admission glucose, and high-sensitive C-reactive protein. Higher OPG levels were associated with increased thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score, TIMI risk index, pain to balloon time, need for inotropic support, shock, and MACE, mainly driven by death. Reperfusion parameters were not different between the two groups. TIMI risk score, TIMI risk index, myocardial blush grade, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), number of obstructed vessels, and OPG significantly predicted adverse cardiac events. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed OPG as an independent predictor of MACE as well as eGFR, number of obstructed vessels, and corrected TIMI frame count. OPG, a bidirectional molecule displaying both atheroprotective and pro-atherosclerotic properties, is currently known as a marker of inflammation and a predictor of cardiovascular mortality. The present study, for the first time, demonstrated that an increased OPG level is related to in-hospital adverse cardiovascular events after primary PCI in patients with STEMI. Copyright © 2012 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd

  4. Differences in coronary artery disease by CT angiography between patients developing unstable angina pectoris vs. major adverse cardiac events

    Schlett, Christopher L. [Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States); Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University Hospital Heidelberg (Germany); Nance, John W. Jr. [Heart and Vascular Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC (United States); The Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD (United States); Schoepf, U. Joseph, E-mail: schoepf@musc.edu [Heart and Vascular Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC (United States); O’Brien, Terrence X. [Heart and Vascular Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC (United States); The Ralph H. Johnson Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Charleston, SC (United States); Ebersberger, Ullrich [Heart and Vascular Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC (United States); Department of Cardiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Heart Centre Munich-Bogenhausen, Munich (Germany); Headden, Gary F. [Heart and Vascular Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC (United States); Hoffmann, Udo [Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States); Bamberg, Fabian [Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States); Department of Radiology, University of Munich, Grosshadern Campus, and Munich Heart Alliance, Munich (Germany); Department of Radiology, University of Tuebingen (Germany)

    2014-07-15

    Highlights: • Patients developing UAP had overall more atherosclerosis as patients without any events. • Patients developing MACE had only more mixed plaque as those developing UAP. • Different atherosclerotic plaque components by CTA carry different prognostic value. - Abstract: Objective: CT angiography (CTA) has prognostic value in patients. But it is unknown whether differences in atherosclerosis by CTA predict the development of unstable angina pectoris (UAP) vs. major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Methods: We followed patients undergoing CTA as part of their acute chest pain work-up. Primary outcome was the development of UAP or MACE (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, revascularization) during a minimum follow-up of 12-months. CTAs were assessed for extent and composition of coronary plaque and stenosis. Ordinal regression with a 3-level outcome (no events, UAP, MACE) was applied. Results: Among 315 patients, 22 developed UAP and 31 MACE. While UAP patients had higher atherosclerosis burden with respect to all assessed features compared to patients with no events (p ≤ 0.02), only mixed plaque extent was significantly different between UAP and MACE patients (p = 0.02). The odds ratio was 4.55 for being in a higher disease-level comparing patients with low extent to those with no mixed plaque, and 3.02 comparing patients with high to those with low. These findings remained after adjustments for potential confounders. Conclusion: The extent of mixed coronary plaque is different between patients who develop UAP vs. MACE, supporting the hypothesis that it is a more culprit morphology.

  5. Association of aortic wall thickness on contrast-enhanced chest CT with major cerebro-cardiac events.

    Tresoldi, Silvia; Di Leo, Giovanni; Zoffoli, Elena; Munari, Alice; Primolevo, Alessandra; Cornalba, Gianpaolo; Sardanelli, Francesco

    2014-11-01

    There is a significant association between aortic atherosclerosis and previous major cardiovascular events. Particularly, thoracic aortic atherosclerosis is closely related to the degree of coronary and carotid artery disease. Thus, there is a rationale for screening the thoracic aorta in patients who undergo a chest computed tomography (CT) for any clinical question, in order to detect patients at increased risk of cerebro-cardiovascular (CCV) events. To estimate the association between either thoracic aortic wall thickness (AWT) or aortic total calcium score (ATCS) and CCV events. One hundred and forty-eight non-cardiac patients (78 men; 67 ± 12 years) underwent chest contrast-enhanced multidetector CT (MDCT). The AWT was measured at the level of the left atrium (AWTref) and at the maximum AWT (AWTmax). Correlation with clinical CCV patients' history was estimated. The value of AWTmax and of a semi-quantitative ATCS as a marker for CCV events was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis and multivariate regression analysis. Out of 148 patients, 59% reported sedentary lifestyle, 44% hypertension, 32% smoking, 23% hypercholesterolemia, 13% family history of cardiac disease, 12% diabetes, and 10% BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2); 9% reported myocardial infarction, 8% aortic aneurism, 8% myocardial revascularization, and 2% ischemic stroke. Twenty-six percent of patients had a medium-to-high ATCS. Both AWTmax and AWTref correlated with hypertension and age (P < 0.002). At the ROC analysis, a 4.8 mm threshold was associated to a 90% specificity and an odds ratio of 6.3 (AUC = 0.735). Assuming as threshold the AWTmax median value (4.3 mm) of patients who suffered from at least one CCV event in their history, a negative predictive value of 90%, a RR of 3.6 and an OR of 6.3 were found. At the multivariate regression analysis, AWTmax was the only independent variable associated to the frequency of CCV events. Patients with increased thoracic

  6. The women day storm

    Parnowski, Aleksei; Polonska, Anna; Semeniv, Oleg

    2012-01-01

    On behalf of the International Women Day, the Sun gave a hot kiss to our mother Earth in a form of a full halo CME generated by the yesterday's double X-class flare. The resulting geomagnetic storm gives a good opportunity to compare the performance of space weather forecast models operating in near-real-time. We compare the forecasts of most major models and identify some common problems. We also present the results of our own near-real-time forecast models.

  7. Living with storm damage to forests

    Gardiner, B.; Schuck, A.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Orazio, C.; Blennow, K.; Nicoll, B.

    2013-01-01

    Windstorms are a major disturbance factor for European forests. In the past six decades wind storms have damaged standing forest volume, which on a yearly average equals about the size of Poland's annual fellings. The evedence also indicates that the actual severity of storms in the wake of climatic

  8. Current understanding of magnetic storms: Storm-substorm relationships

    Kamide, Y.; Gonzalez, W.D.; Baumjohann, W.; Daglis, I.A.; Grande, M.; Joselyn, J.A.; Singer, H.J.; McPherron, R.L.; Phillips, J.L.; Reeves, E.G.; Rostoker, G.; Sharma, A.S.; Tsurutani, B.T.

    1998-01-01

    This paper attempts to summarize the current understanding of the storm/substorm relationship by clearing up a considerable amount of controversy and by addressing the question of how solar wind energy is deposited into and is dissipated in the constituent elements that are critical to magnetospheric and ionospheric processes during magnetic storms. (1) Four mechanisms are identified and discussed as the primary causes of enhanced electric fields in the interplanetary medium responsible for geomagnetic storms. It is pointed out that in reality, these four mechanisms, which are not mutually exclusive, but interdependent, interact differently from event to event. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are found to be the primary phenomena responsible for the main phase of geomagnetic storms. The other two mechanisms, i.e., HILDCAA (high-intensity, long-duration, continuous auroral electrojet activity) and the so-called Russell-McPherron effect, work to make the ICME and CIR phenomena more geoeffective. The solar cycle dependence of the various sources in creating magnetic storms has yet to be quantitatively understood. (2) A serious controversy exists as to whether the successive occurrence of intense substorms plays a direct role in the energization of ring current particles or whether the enhanced electric field associated with southward IMF enhances the effect of substorm expansions. While most of the Dst variance during magnetic storms can be solely reproduced by changes in the large-scale electric field in the solar wind and the residuals are uncorrelated with substorms, recent satellite observations of the ring current constituents during the main phase of magnetic storms show the importance of ionospheric ions. This implies that ionospheric ions, which are associated with the frequent occurrence of intense substorms, are accelerated upward along magnetic field lines, contributing to the energy density of the

  9. Events

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  10. Ultimate resources of drinking water in the event of a major pollution crisis: the role of bottled water

    Collin, J.J.; Comte, J.P.; Daum, J.R.; Lopoukhine, M.; Mesny, M.

    1995-01-01

    In the event of a serious and widespread pollution incident - on the level of the ''Chernobyl cloud'' - most of the drinking water resources in France could be contaminated : surface water immediately, ground water in a few days... or a few months. Therefore on the initiative of the Ministry of the Environment's Director for Defence, a study has been initiated as to what might be qualified as ''final emergency resources''. An inventory and map of protected resources have been prepared. In this context it seems reasonable to show bottled water as a resource meeting the necessary protection criteria. However it seems that these criteria are not all, nor always, relevant for defining a ''ultimate emergency resource'' not contaminated by a major incident. This article outlines a typology of situations and defines the main criteria necessary for bottled water to be able to constitute an ultimate resource

  11. Depression, anxiety and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in patients following coronary artery bypass graft surgery

    Tully, Phillip J; Winefield, Helen R; Baker, Robert A

    2015-01-01

    anhedonia, anxious arousal and general distress/negative affect symptom dimensions. Incident MACCE was defined as fatal or non-fatal; myocardial infarction, unstable angina pectoris, repeat revascularization, heart failure, sustained arrhythmia, stroke or cerebrovascular accident, left ventricular failure......BACKGROUND: Although depression and anxiety have been implicated in risk for major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), a theoretical approach to identifying such putative links is lacking. The objective of this study was to examine the association between theoretical...... and mortality due to cardiac causes. Time-to-MACCE was determined by hazard modelling after adjustment for EuroSCORE, smoking, body mass index, hypertension, heart failure and peripheral vascular disease. RESULTS: In the total sample, there were 698 cumulative person years of survival for analysis with a median...

  12. Effect of Tide Elevation on Extratropical Storm Surge in Northwest Europe

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-generating meteorological events in northwest Europe. The total water level increase induced by these ETCs is significantly influenced by the local tidal range, which exceeds 8 meters along the southwestern UK coastline. In particular, a surge-generating ETC during high tide may put coastal assets and infrastructure in risk. Also, during low tide, the risk of surge induced by extreme ETC events is diminished. Here, the effect of tidal elevation on storm surge is investigated at 196 tide gauges in northwest Europe. A numerical, hydrodynamic model was developed using Delft3D-FM framework to simulate the coastal hydrodynamics during ETCs. Then, 1750 historical events were simulated to investigate the pattern of coastal inundation. Results suggest that in areas with a large tidal range ( 8 meters) and during the time period surrounding high or low tide, the pattern of coastal hydrodynamics is governed by tide and not storm surge. This result is most evident near the English Channel and Bristol Channel, where low frequency maximum water levels are observed when storm surge is combined with high tide. In contrast, near the tidal phase reversal, coastal hydrodynamics responds primarily to the storm surge, and low frequency maximum water elevation largely depends on the surge. In the areas with a small tidal range, ETC strength determines the pattern of coastal inundation.

  13. Accumulation of Major Life Events in Childhood and Adult Life and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

    Jolene Masters Pedersen

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to estimate the effect of the accumulation of major life events (MLE in childhood and adulthood, in both the private and working domains, on risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Furthermore, we aimed to test the possible interaction between childhood and adult MLE and to investigate modification of these associations by educational attainment.The study was based on 4,761 participants from the Copenhagen City Heart Study free of diabetes at baseline and followed for 10 years. MLE were categorized as 0, 1, 2, 3 or more events. Multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, education and family history of diabetes were used to estimate the association between MLE and T2DM.In childhood, experiencing 3 or more MLE was associated with a 69% higher risk of developing T2DM (Odds Ratio (OR 1.69; 95% Confidence Interval (CI 1.60, 3.27. The accumulation of MLE in adult private (p-trend = 0.016 and work life (p-trend = 0.049 was associated with risk of T2DM in a dose response manner. There was no evidence that experiencing MLE in both childhood and adult life was more strongly associated with T2DM than experiencing events at only one time point. There was some evidence that being simultaneously exposed to childhood MLE and short education (OR 2.28; 95% C.I. 1.45, 3.59 and work MLE and short education (OR 2.86; 95% C.I. 1.62, 5.03 was associated with higher risk of T2DM, as the joint effects were greater than the sum of their individual effects.Findings from this study suggest that the accumulation of MLE in childhood, private adult life and work life, respectively, are risk factors for developing T2DM.

  14. Storm warning : gambling with the climate of our planet

    Dotto, L.

    1999-06-01

    This book gives a clear explanation of climate phenomena such as El Nino and the greenhouse effect, and provides a background and insight into the climate conferences held in recent years in Rio and Kyoto. It documents the extreme weather events of recent years, including the ice storm of 1998, the 1997 Manitoba floods, and the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. Such events should prompt people to give serious thought to the implications of global warming and consider the strong evidence that our climate is changing due to human interference. The book warns that global warming will increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and storm. Climate change is expected to affect agriculture, water supplies, food production, and the spread of human diseases. The book provides thoughtful answers to the major questions about global warming, detailed descriptions of the multiple effects on human health and safety, and discusses the steps that need to be taken to avoid and adapt to the oncoming storm. In answer to the non-believers, the author points out the futility of demanding more and more proof. In her view, we have all the proof needed, it is time to concentrate not on proof but on risk. refs.

  15. The drone as an additional risk factor due to conditions not provided for in radiological safety at major events

    Oliveira, Gilberto de Jesus

    2015-01-01

    Major international events are potential targets of terrorist actions, seeking instant publicity that events of this magnitude provide, with the intention of causing terror and disseminate its power to a large number of people worldwide. In this context, the critical analysis of additional risk factor linked to procedures and protocols adopted on radiation safety is important. The possibility of unforeseen situations of risk, especially those resulting from the current global technological development, is a fact. Radioactive material can be used in this type of terrorism in a wide range of devices and illicit trafficking of this material is a reality that worries the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the current technological development scenario of the world, the potential occurrence of terrorist acts using drones combined with radioactive material dispersal devices, is real. The recent history of drones incidents presents cases where, despite not having been necessarily terrorist motivation, their circumstances and characteristics favor the occurrence of malicious acts. This paper proposes to alert the need of updating the current security protocols, considering the potential association of this technology with radioactive dispersal devices. (author)

  16. Geometric effects of ICMEs on geomagnetic storms

    Cho, KyungSuk; Lee, Jae-Ok

    2017-04-01

    It has been known that the geomagnetic storm is occurred by the interaction between the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) and the Earth's magnetosphere; especially, the southward Bz component of ICME is thought as the main trigger. In this study, we investigate the relationship between Dst index and solar wind conditions; which are the southward Bz, electric field (VBz), and time integral of electric field as well as ICME parameters derived from toroidal fitting model in order to find what is main factor to the geomagnetic storm. We also inspect locations of Earth in ICMEs to understand the geometric effects of the Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) on the geomagnetic storms. Among 59 CDAW ICME lists, we select 30 IFR events that are available by the toroidal fitting model and classify them into two sub-groups: geomagnetic storms associated with the Magnetic Clouds (MCs) and the compression regions ahead of the MCs (sheath). The main results are as follows: (1) The time integral of electric field has a higher correlation coefficient (cc) with Dst index than the other parameters: cc=0.85 for 25 MC events and cc=0.99 for 5 sheath events. (2) The sheath associated intense storms (Dst ≤-100nT) having usually occur at flank regions of ICMEs while the MC associated intense storms occur regardless of the locations of the Earth in ICMEs. The strength of a geomagnetic storm strongly depends on electric field of IFR and durations of the IFR passages through the Earth.

  17. Examine Precipitation Extremes in Terms of Storm Properties

    Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.; Chen, L.; Gautam, M. R.; Acharya, K.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing potential of the extreme precipitation is of significant societal concern. Changes in precipitation extremes have been mostly examined using extreme precipitation indices or Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analyses, which often fail to reveal the characteristics of an integrated precipitation event. In this study, we will examine the precipitation extremes in terms of storm properties including storm duration, storm intensity, total storm precipitation, and within storm pattern. Single storm event will be identified and storm properties will be determined based on the hourly precipitation time series in the selected locations in southwest United States. Three types of extreme precipitation event will be recognized using the criteria as (1) longest storm duration; (2) Highest storm intensity; and (3) largest total precipitation over a storm. The trend and variation of extreme precipitation events will be discussed for each criterion. Based on the comparisons of the characteristics of extreme precipitation events identified using different criteria, we will provide guidelines for choosing proper criteria for extreme precipitation analysis in specific location.

  18. The impact of major life events on the use of complementary and alternative medicine among individuals with chronic pain: a cross-sectional study.

    Wang, Shu-Ming; Fortier, Michelle A; Cheng, David Y; Perret, Danielle; Hata, Justin; Tan, Edwin T; Kain, Zeev N

    2013-01-01

    Chronic pain affects millions of Americans. Treating chronic pain can be difficult because it is a complex condition influenced by genetic makeup and physiological and psychological factors. The experience of major life events has also been found to affect the psychosocial functioning, health, and health behaviors of patients. Whereas the impact of major life events on the use of traditional medical practices has been explored, only one study to date has examined the relationship between major life events and use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). This study examined the impact of major life events on the use of CAM among patients with chronic pain syndromes. Participants were consecutive patients seeking treatment at a pain clinic. The study occurred at a tertiary center for pain management in Southern California. Participants were adult patients experiencing chronic pain for at least 6 mo, seeking treatment at a pain center. Participants completed a measure assessing their use of CAM modalities as well as their receptiveness to using previously unused CAM modalities, and they provided demographic information, including the occurrence of major life events, such as a job loss. A total of 199 adults with chronic pain participated in the study. The majority (91.6%) of chronic pain patients in the study reported using at least one form of CAM, with an average of at least five different forms of CAM. Individuals reported receptiveness to CAM modalities that they had not previously used (P CAM use were greater among those that had experienced a major life event in the prior 6 mo (P chronic pain frequently use CAM therapies, especially those who had recently experienced a major life event. Major life events may motivate patients with chronic pain to seek out different forms of CAM as a way to manage their pain.

  19. Interannual Similarity in the Martian Atmosphere During the Dust Storm Season

    Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

    2016-01-01

    We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (approximately 25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

  20. Depression, anxiety and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in patients following coronary artery bypass graft surgery : A five year longitudinal cohort study

    Tully, P.J.; Winefield, H.R.; Baker, R.A.; Denollet, Johan; Pedersen, S.S.; Wittert, G.A.; Turnbull, D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although depression and anxiety have been implicated in risk for major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), a theoretical approach to identifying such putative links is lacking. The objective of this study was to examine the association between theoretical

  1. Changes in geriatric nutritional risk index and risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in incident peritoneal dialysis patients

    Mi Jung Lee

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI is a validated nutritional assessment method, and lower GNRI values are closely associated with adverse clinical outcomes in dialysis patients. This study investigated the impact of changes in GNRI during the first year of dialysis on cardiovascular outcomes in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. Methods: We reviewed medical records in 133 incident PD patients to determine GNRI at the start of PD and after 12 months. Patients were categorized into improved (delta GNRI > 0 and worsening/stationary (delta GNRI ≤ 0 groups. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs. Results: During a mean follow-up of 51.1 months, the primary outcome was observed in 42 patients (31.6%. The baseline GNRI at PD initiation was not significantly associated with MACCEs (log-rank test, P = 0.40. However, the cumulative event-free rate was significantly lower in the worsening or stationary GNRI group than in the improved group (log-rank test, P = 0.004. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that a worsening or stationary GNRI was independently associated with higher risk for MACCEs (hazard ratio, 2.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–5.29; P = 0.02. In subgroup analysis, patients with worsening or stationary GNRI were at significantly greater risk for MACCEs in both the lower (P = 0.04 and higher (P = 0.01 baseline GNRI groups. Conclusion: Baseline GNRI was not associated with MACCEs, but patients with deteriorating or stationary nutritional status were at significantly greater risk for MACCEs, suggesting that serial monitoring of nutritional status is important to stratify cardiovascular risk in incident PD patients.

  2. Measurement of mean cardiac dose for various breast irradiation techniques and corresponding risk of major cardiovascular event.

    Tomas Rodrigo Merino Lara

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available After breast conserving surgery, early stage breast cancer patients are currently treated with a wide range of radiation techniques including whole breast irradiation (WBI, accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI using high dose rate (HDR brachytherapy, or 3D conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT. This study compares the mean heart’s doses for a left breast irradiated with different breast techniques.An anthropomorphic Rando phantom was modified with gelatin-based breast of different sizes and tumors located medially or laterally. The breasts were treated with WBI, 3D-CRT or HDR APBI. The heart’s mean doses were measured with Gafchromic films and controlled with optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLDs. Following the model reported by Darby (16, major cardiac were estimated assuming a linear risk increase with the mean dose to the heart of 7.4% per gray.Whole breast irradiation lead to the highest mean heart dose (2.99 Gy compared to 3D-CRT APBI, (0.51 Gy, multicatheter (1.58 Gy and balloon HDR (2.17 Gy for a medially located tumor. This translated into long-term coronary event increases of 22%, 3.8%, 11.7%, and 16% respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the tumor location had almost no effect on the mean heart dose for 3D-CRT APBI and a minimal impact for HDR APBI. For WBI large breast size and set-up errors lead to sharp increases of the mean heart dose. Its value reached 10.79 Gy for women with large breast and a set-up error of 1.5 cm. Such a high value could increase the risk of having long-term coronary events by 80%.Comparison among different irradiation techniques demonstrates that 3D-CRT APBI appears the safest one with less probability of having cardiovascular events in the future. A sensitivity analysis showed that WBI is the most challenging technique for patients with large breasts or when significant set-up errors are anticipated. In those cases additional heart shielding techniques are required.

  3. [Association between MAOA-u VNTR polymorphism and its interaction with stressful life events and major depressive disorder in adolescents].

    Ma, Jing; Yu, Shun-Ying; Liang, Shan; Ding, Jun; Feng, Zhe; Yang, Fan; Gao, Wei-Jia; Lin, Jia-Ni; Huang, Chun-Xiang; Liu, Xue-Jun; Su, Lin-Yan

    2013-07-01

    To investigate whether the genetic polymorphism, upstream variable number of tandem repeats (uVNTR), in the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA) gene, is associated with major depressive disorder (MDD) in adolescents and to test whether there is gene-environment interaction between MAOA-uVNTR polymorphism and stressful life events (SLEs). A total of 394 Chinese Han subjects, including 187 adolescent patients with MDD and 207 normal students as a control group, were included in the study. Genotyping was performed by SNaP-shot assay. SLEs in the previous 12 months were evaluated. The groups were compared in terms of the frequency distributions of MAOA-uVNTR genotypes and alleles using statistical software. The binary logistic regression model of gene-environment interaction was established to analyze the association of the gene-environment interaction between MAOA-u VNTR genotypes and SLEs with adolescent MDD. The distribution profiles of MAOA-u VNTR genotypes and alleles were not related to the onset of MDD, severity of depression, comorbid anxiety and suicidal ideation/behavior/attempt in adolescents. The gene-environment interaction between MAOA-u VNTR genotypes and SLEs was not associated with MDD in male or female adolescents. It is not proven that MAOA-u VNTR polymorphism is associated with adolescent MDD. There is also no gene-environment interaction between MAOA-u VNTR polymorphism and SLEs that is associated with adolescent MDD.

  4. Deficits in cue detection underlie event-based prospective memory impairment in major depression: an eye tracking study.

    Chen, Siyi; Zhou, Renlai; Cui, Hong; Chen, Xinyin

    2013-10-30

    This study examined the cue detection in the non-focal event-based prospective memory (PM) of individuals with and without a major depressive disorder using behavioural and eye tracking assessments. The participants were instructed to search on each trial for a different target stimulus that could be present or absent and to make prospective responses to the cue object. PM tasks included cue only and target plus cue, whereas ongoing tasks included target only and distracter only. The results showed that a) participants with depression performed more poorly than those without depression in PM; b) participants with depression showed more fixations and longer total and average fixation durations in both ongoing and PM conditions; c) participants with depression had lower scores on accuracy in target-plus-cue trials than in cue-only trials and had a higher gaze rate of targets on hits and misses in target-plus-cue trials than did those without depression. The results indicate that the state of depression may impair top-down cognitive control function, which in turn results in particular deficits in the engagement of monitoring for PM cues. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  5. Abnormal self-schema in semantic memory in major depressive disorder: Evidence from event-related brain potentials.

    Kiang, Michael; Farzan, Faranak; Blumberger, Daniel M; Kutas, Marta; McKinnon, Margaret C; Kansal, Vinay; Rajji, Tarek K; Daskalakis, Zafiris J

    2017-05-01

    An overly negative self-schema is a proposed cognitive mechanism of major depressive disorder (MDD). Self-schema - one's core conception of self, including how strongly one believes one possesses various characteristics - is part of semantic memory (SM), our knowledge about concepts and their relationships. We used the N400 event-related potential (ERP) - elicited by meaningful stimuli, and reduced by greater association of the stimulus with preceding context - to measure association strength between self-concept and positive, negative, and neutral characteristics in SM. ERPs were recorded from MDD patients (n=16) and controls (n=16) who viewed trials comprising a self-referential phrase followed by a positive, negative, or neutral adjective. Participants' task was to indicate via button-press whether or not they felt each adjective described themselves. Controls endorsed more positive adjectives than did MDD patients, but the opposite was true for negative adjectives. Patients had smaller N400s than controls specifically for negative adjectives, suggesting that MDD is associated with stronger than normal functional neural links between self-concept and negative characteristics in SM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Event-related potentials in response to emotional words in patients with major depressive disorder and healthy controls.

    Liu, Hong; Yin, Hui-fang; Wu, Da-xing; Xu, Shu-jing

    2014-01-01

    Dysfunctional cognitive processing and abnormal brain activation in response to emotional stimuli have long been recognized as core features of the major depressive disorder (MDD). The aim of this study was to examine how Chinese patients with MDD process Chinese emotional words presented to either the left (LH) or right hemisphere (RH). Reaction time (RT) and the late positive component of the event-related potential were measured while subjects judged the valence (positive or negative) of emotional words written in Chinese. Compared to healthy controls, patients with MDD exhibited slower RTs in response to negative words. In all subjects, the RTs in response to negative words were significantly faster than RTs in response to positive words presented to the LH, as well as significantly faster than responses to negative words presented to the RH. Compared to healthy controls, MDD patients exhibited reduced activation of the central and left regions of the brain in response to both negative and positive words. In healthy controls, the posterior brain areas were more active than the anterior brain areas when responding to negative words. All individuals showed faster RTs in response to negative words compared to positive words. In addition, MDD patients showed lateralization of brain activity in response to emotional words, whereas healthy individuals did not show this lateralization. Posterior brain areas appear to play an especially important role in discriminating and experiencing negative emotional words. This study provides further evidence in support of the negative bias hypothesis and the emotional processing theory.

  7. The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

    Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

  8. Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

    Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

    2016-12-01

    The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

  9. Case history of an anticipated event: The major (Mw = 7.0) Vrancea, Romania earthquake of 1986 - revisited

    Marza, V.; Burlacu, B V.; Pantea, A; Malita, Z.

    2002-01-01

    This is a reissue of a paper initially published in the European Seismological Commission Proceedings of the XXI General Assembly held on 23-27 August 1988 in Sofia, Bulgaria, p. 515-523, and released in 1989. We present here an excerpt of the original paper, taking only advantage of the modern digital graphics, removing some 'typing' mistakes or adding some explanatory late notes, in order to remember the conspicuous earthquake prediction research results done by Romanian seismology after the forecasted 1977 Vrancea major event. For the sake of understanding we distinguish between earthquake forecasting (long-term prediction, that is a time-window of years, but less than 20% of the mean return period for the involved magnitude and a lead time of years) and earthquake anticipation (medium-term prediction, i.e. a time-window of a few months and a lead time of months), stages what proved to be feasible for Vrancea seismogenic zone. Analysis and discussion of a variety of precursory seismicity patterns (p.s.p.) belonging to all temporal developmental stages of the preparatory (geo)physical process leading to the killer and damaging major subcrustal Vrancea, Romania, earthquake of August 30, 1986 (epicenter = 45.5 angle N/26.4 angle E; depth 144 km; magnitude(s) m w =7.0, M w =7.3, M L =7.0; I o =VIII 1/2 MSK) are performed and documented, clearly proving that the earthquake would not has been unexpected. The salient features of the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone (VSZ) and its tectonic setting have been presented elsewhere. The seismological data base used in this study is the earthquake master catalogue of Constantinescu and Marza, updated on the basis of the data supplied by the real-time telemetered seismographic network of Romania, centered on VSZ. The contents of the paper is as follows: 1. Introduction; 2. The Vrancea 1986 Major (m w =7.0) Subcrustal Earthquake Related Precursors; 2.1. Regularity Patterns; 2.2. Preseismic Quiescence; 2.3. Hypocentral migration

  10. The impact of chronic kidney disease as a predictor of major cardiac events in patients with no evidence of coronary artery disease

    Furuhashi, Tatsuhiko; Moroi, Masao; Joki, Nobuhiko; Hase, Hiroki; Masai, Hirofumi; Kunimasa, Taeko; Nakazato, Ryo; Fukuda, Hiroshi; Sugi, Kaoru

    2010-01-01

    Normal stress myocardial perfusion images (MPI) generally show good prognosis for cardiovascular events. However, chronic kidney disease (CKD) is one of the important risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD), and the interpretation of normal stress MPI has not been well established in CKD patients with no evidence of CAD. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of stress MPI in CKD patients with no evidence of myocardial ischemia or infarction. Patients who had no history but were suspected of CAD and had normal stress MPI (n=307, male=208, age=67 years, CKD/non-CKD=46/261) were followed-up for 4.5 years. CKD was defined as a glomerular filtration ratio of 2 and/or persistent proteinuria. Cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and unstable angina requiring hospitalization were defined as major cardiac events. Major cardiac events were observed in 3 of 261 (1.1%) non-CKD patients and 6 of 46 (13%) CKD patients (p<0.001, with log-rank test). CKD was an independent risk factor for major cardiac events (hazard ratio=13.1, p<0.001, multivariate Cox regression analysis). Normal stress MPI does not always promise a good prognosis for major cardiac events. Even in patients with no evidence of CAD from stress MPI, CKD can be an independent and significant risk factor for major cardiac events. (author)

  11. Transportation and Bioavailability of Copper and Zinc in a Storm Water Retention Pond

    Camponelli, K.; Casey, R. E.; Wright, M. E.; Lev, S. M.; Landa, E. R.

    2006-05-01

    Highway runoff has been identified as a non-point source of metals to storm water retention ponds. Zinc and copper are major components of tires and brake pads, respectively. As these automobile parts degrade, they deposit particulates onto the roadway surface. During a storm event, these metal containing particulates are washed into a storm water retention pond where they can then accumulate over time. These metals may be available to organisms inhabiting the pond and surrounding areas. This study focuses on tracking the metals from their deposition on the roadway to their transport and accumulation into a retention pond. The retention pond is located in Owings Mills, MD and collects runoff from an adjacent four lane highway. Pond sediments, background soils, road dust samples, and storm events were collected and analyzed. Copper and zinc concentrations in the pond sediments are higher than local background soils indicating that the pond is storing anthropogenically derived metals. Storm event samples also reveal elevated levels of copper and zinc transported through runoff, along with a large concentration of total suspended solids. After looking at the particulate and dissolved fractions of both metals in the runoff, the majority of the Zn and Cu are in the particulate fraction. Changes in TSS are proportional with changes in particulate bound Zn, indicating that the solid particulates that are entering into the pond are a major contributor of the total metal loading. Sequential extractions carried out on the road dust show that the majority of zinc is extracted in the second and third fractions and could become available to organisms in the pond. There is a small amount of Cu that is being released in the more available stages of the procedure; however the bulk of the Cu is seen in the more recalcitrant steps. In the pond sediments however, both Cu and Zn are only being released from the sediments in the later steps and are most likely not highly available.

  12. Crossing the front: contrasting storm-forced dispersal dynamics revealed by biological, geological and genetic analysis of beach-cast kelp.

    Waters, Jonathan M; King, Tania M; Fraser, Ceridwen I; Craw, Dave

    2018-03-01

    The subtropical front (STF) generally represents a substantial oceanographic barrier to dispersal between cold-sub-Antarctic and warm-temperate water masses. Recent studies have suggested that storm events can drastically influence marine dispersal and patterns. Here we analyse biological and geological dispersal driven by two major, contrasting storm events in southern New Zealand, 2017. We integrate biological and physical data to show that a severe southerly system in July 2017 disrupted this barrier by promoting movement of substantial numbers of southern sub-Antarctic Durvillaea kelp rafts across the STF, to make landfall in mainland NZ. By contrast, a less intense easterly storm (Cyclone Cook, April 2017) resulted in more moderate dispersal distances, with minimal dispersal between the sub-Antarctic and mainland New Zealand. These quantitative analyses of approximately 200 freshly beach-cast kelp specimens indicate that storm intensity and wind direction can strongly influence marine dispersal and landfall outcomes. © 2018 The Author(s).

  13. Comparison of circadian, weekly, and seasonal variations of electrical storms and single events of ventricular fibrillation in patients with Brugada syndrome

    Yoshiyasu Aizawa

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In patients with Brugada syndrome (BS, VF occurred predominantly during the nocturnal period. Some patients also developed ESs. In addition to the circadian rhythm, patients showed weekly and seasonal patterns. The patients with ESs had peak episodes of VF on Saturday and in the winter and spring, while episodes of VF in patients with single VF events occurred most often on Monday with smaller seasonal variation. Except for age, there was no difference in the clinical or ECG characteristics between the patients with ESs and those with single VF episodes.

  14. Relationship of testis size and LH levels with incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events in older men with sexual dysfunction.

    Rastrelli, Giulia; Corona, Giovanni; Lotti, Francesco; Boddi, Valentina; Mannucci, Edoardo; Maggi, Mario

    2013-11-01

    Measurement of testis volume (TV) is a reliable clinical procedure that predicts reproductive fitness. However, the role of TV in overall and cardiovascular (CV) fitness has never been studied. The study aims to analyze the clinical correlates of TV in patients with sexual dysfunction (SD) and to verify the value of this parameter and its determinants (i.e., luteinizing hormone [LH] levels) in predicting major adverse CV events (MACE). A consecutive series of 2,809 subjects without testiculopathy (age 51.2 ± 13.1) consulting for SD was retrospectively studied. A subset of this sample (n=1,395) was enrolled in a longitudinal study. Several clinical and biochemical parameters were investigated. After adjusting for confounders, TV was negatively associated with both LH (Adj. r=-0.234; PTV (hazard ratio [HR]=1.041 [1.021-1.061], PTV (Adj. r=0.157; PTV were only partially related to changes in gonadotropin levels. In the longitudinal analysis, after adjusting for confounders, TV was associated with a higher incidence of MACE (HR=1.066 [1.013-1.122]; P=0.014), and the stepwise introduction in the Cox model of lifestyle factors, mean blood pressure and body mass index progressively smoothed out the association, which was no longer statistically significant in the fully adjusted model. Conversely, the association of higher LH levels with increased incidence of MACE was not attenuated by the progressive introduction of the aforementioned confounders in the model. Our data show that in SD subjects, TV and LH are associated with an adverse CV risk profile that mediate the higher TV-associated incidence of MACE. High LH levels are an independent marker of CV risk. Further studies are needed for clarifying determinants and mechanisms of testis enlargement that, beyond gonadotropins, could mediate the increased incidence of MACE. © 2013 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  15. The predictive value of arterial stiffness on major adverse cardiovascular events in individuals with mildly impaired renal function

    Han J

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Jie Han,* Xiaona Wang,* Ping Ye, Ruihua Cao, Xu Yang, Wenkai Xiao, Yun Zhang, Yongyi Bai, Hongmei Wu Department of Geriatric Cardiology, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Objectives: Despite growing evidence that arterial stiffness has important predictive value for cardiovascular disease in patients with advanced stages of chronic kidney disease, the predictive significance of arterial stiffness in individuals with mildly impaired renal function has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of arterial stiffness on cardiovascular disease in this specific population. Materials and methods: We analyzed measurements of arterial stiffness (carotid–femoral pulse-wave velocity [cf-PWV] and the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs in 1,499 subjects from a 4.8-year longitudinal study. Results: A multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis showed that in individuals with normal renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2, the baseline cf-PWV was not associated with occurrence of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.398, 95% confidence interval 0.748–2.613; P=0.293. In individuals with mildly impaired renal function (eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2, a higher baseline cf-PWV level was associated with a higher risk of MACEs (hazard ratio 2.334, 95% confidence interval 1.082–5.036; P=0.031. Conclusion: Arterial stiffness is a moderate and independent predictive factor for MACEs in individuals with mildly impaired renal function (eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2. Keywords: epidemiology, arterial stiffness, impaired renal function, predictive value, MACEs

  16. Coastal Flooding Hazards due to storm surges and subsidence

    Sørensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    Flooding hazard and risk mapping are major topics in low-lying coastal areas before even considering the adverse effects of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change. While permanent inundation may be a prevalent issue, more often floods related to extreme events (storm surges) have the largest...... damage potential.Challenges are amplified in some areas due to subsidence from natural and/or anthropogenic causes. Subsidence of even a few mm/y may over time greatly impair the safety against flooding of coastal communities and must be accounted for in order to accomplish the economically most viable...

  17. The impact of dust storms on the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea

    Jish Prakash, P.

    2015-01-12

    Located in the dust belt, the Arabian Peninsula is a major source of atmospheric dust. Frequent dust outbreaks and some 15 to 20 dust storms per year have profound effects on all aspects of human activity and natural processes in this region. To quantify the effect of severe dust events on radiation fluxes and regional climate characteristics, we simulated the storm that occurred from 18 to 20 March 2012 using a regional weather research forecast model fully coupled with the chemistry/aerosol module (WRF–Chem). This storm swept over a remarkably large area affecting the entire Middle East, northeastern Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. It was caused by a southward propagating cold front, and the associated winds activated the dust production in river valleys of the lower Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq; the coastal areas in Kuwait, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates; the Rub al Khali, An Nafud, and Ad Dahna deserts; and along the Red Sea coast on the west side of the Arabian Peninsula. Our simulation results compare well with available ground-based and satellite observations. We estimate the total amount of dust generated by the storm to have reached 94 Mt. Approximately 78% of this dust was deposited within the calculation domain. The Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf received 5.3 Mt and the Red Sea 1.2 Mt of dust. Dust particles bring nutrients to marine ecosystems, which is especially important for the oligotrophic Northern Red Sea. However, their contribution to the nutrient balance in the Red Sea remains largely unknown. By scaling the effect of one storm to the number of dust storms observed annually over the Red Sea, we estimate the annual dust deposition to the Red Sea, associated with major dust storms, to be 6 Mt.

  18. The impact of dust storms on the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea

    Jish Prakash, P.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Kalenderski, Stoitchko; Osipov, Sergey; Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu

    2015-01-01

    Located in the dust belt, the Arabian Peninsula is a major source of atmospheric dust. Frequent dust outbreaks and some 15 to 20 dust storms per year have profound effects on all aspects of human activity and natural processes in this region. To quantify the effect of severe dust events on radiation fluxes and regional climate characteristics, we simulated the storm that occurred from 18 to 20 March 2012 using a regional weather research forecast model fully coupled with the chemistry/aerosol module (WRF–Chem). This storm swept over a remarkably large area affecting the entire Middle East, northeastern Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. It was caused by a southward propagating cold front, and the associated winds activated the dust production in river valleys of the lower Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq; the coastal areas in Kuwait, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates; the Rub al Khali, An Nafud, and Ad Dahna deserts; and along the Red Sea coast on the west side of the Arabian Peninsula. Our simulation results compare well with available ground-based and satellite observations. We estimate the total amount of dust generated by the storm to have reached 94 Mt. Approximately 78% of this dust was deposited within the calculation domain. The Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf received 5.3 Mt and the Red Sea 1.2 Mt of dust. Dust particles bring nutrients to marine ecosystems, which is especially important for the oligotrophic Northern Red Sea. However, their contribution to the nutrient balance in the Red Sea remains largely unknown. By scaling the effect of one storm to the number of dust storms observed annually over the Red Sea, we estimate the annual dust deposition to the Red Sea, associated with major dust storms, to be 6 Mt.

  19. Coronal mass ejections, interplanetary shocks in relation with forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms

    Verma, P L; Patel, Nand Kumar; Prajapati, Mateswari

    2014-01-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs} are the most energetic solar events in which large amount of solar plasma materials are ejected from the sun into heliosphere, causing major disturbances in solar wind plasma, Interplanetary shocks, Forbush decrease(Fds) in cosmic ray intensity and geomagnetic storms. We have studied Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms observed at Oulu super neutron monitor, during the period of May 1998-Dec 2006 with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), X-ray solar flares and interplanetary shocks. We have found that all the (100%) Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms are associated with halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The association rate between halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections are found 96.00%and 04.00% respectively. Most of the Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms (96.29%) are associated with X-ray solar flares of different categories . The association rates for X-Class, M-Class, and C- Class X -ray solar flares are found 34.62%, 50.00% and 15.38% respectively .Further we have concluded that majority of the Forbush decrease associated with intense geomagnetic storms are related to interplanetary shocks (92.30 %) and the related shocks are forward shocks. We have found positive co-relation with co-relation co-efficient .7025 between magnitudes of Forbush decreases associated with intense geomagnetic storms and speed of associated coronal mass ejections. Positive co-relation with co-relation co-efficient 0.48 has also been found between magnitudes of intense geomagnetic storms and speed of associated coronal mass ejections.

  20. Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

    Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

  1. Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

    Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

    2015-07-01

    Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/2014 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper-beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number

  2. Coding of adverse events of suicidality in clinical study reports of duloxetine for the treatment of major depressive disorder: descriptive study.

    Maund, Emma; Tendal, Britta; Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn; Lundh, Andreas; Gøtzsche, Peter C

    2014-06-04

    To assess the effects of coding and coding conventions on summaries and tabulations of adverse events data on suicidality within clinical study reports. Systematic electronic search for adverse events of suicidality in tables, narratives, and listings of adverse events in individual patients within clinical study reports. Where possible, for each event we extracted the original term reported by the investigator, the term as coded by the medical coding dictionary, medical coding dictionary used, and the patient's trial identification number. Using the patient's trial identification number, we attempted to reconcile data on the same event between the different formats for presenting data on adverse events within the clinical study report. 9 randomised placebo controlled trials of duloxetine for major depressive disorder submitted to the European Medicines Agency for marketing approval. Clinical study reports obtained from the EMA in 2011. Six trials used the medical coding dictionary COSTART (Coding Symbols for a Thesaurus of Adverse Reaction Terms) and three used MedDRA (Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities). Suicides were clearly identifiable in all formats of adverse event data in clinical study reports. Suicide attempts presented in tables included both definitive and provisional diagnoses. Suicidal ideation and preparatory behaviour were obscured in some tables owing to the lack of specificity of the medical coding dictionary, especially COSTART. Furthermore, we found one event of suicidal ideation described in narrative text that was absent from tables and adverse event listings of individual patients. The reason for this is unclear, but may be due to the coding conventions used. Data on adverse events in tables in clinical study reports may not accurately represent the underlying patient data because of the medical dictionaries and coding conventions used. In clinical study reports, the listings of adverse events for individual patients and narratives

  3. High-resolution phosphorus transfers at the catchment scale: the hidden importance of non-storm transfers

    P. Jordan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution measurements of total phosphorus (TP concentrations in a stream draining a 5 km2 agricultural catchment (a sub-catchment of Lough Neagh in Northern Ireland were made every 10 min by continuous flow instrumentation using new homogenisation, digestion and colorimetric phases. Concurrently, rainfall and stream discharge data were collected at 5 and 15 min intervals. Major P flushing episodes during storm events peaked on the rising limbs of storm hydrographs. A period of baseflow also indicated the importance of other sources that maintain the stream in a eutrophic state between storm events. These data provide insights into catchment processes that conform to definite patterns that, in a coarser sampling regime, might ordinarily be attributed to sampling and analytical 'noise'.

  4. A major 2.1 Ga event of mafic magmatism in west Africa: An Early stage of crustal accretion

    Abouchami, Wafa; Boher, Muriel; Michard, Annie; Albarede, Francis

    1990-10-01

    environments. Back-arc or low-Ti continental flood basalts provide a marginally good agreement but still face some difficulties. Oceanic flood basalts similar to those which form oceanic plateaus (e.g. in the Nauru basin) and later accreted to continents as allochtonous terranes represent the most acceptable modern analogue of many Proterozoic basalts. It is suggested that deep plumes piercing young lithosphere can generate huge amounts of tholeiites in a short time. Birimian basalts, like many Early Proterozoic basalts, may also be viewed as recent equivalents of the Archean greenstone belts. The modern komatiite of Gorgona Island is suggested to fit this model of intraplate volcanism. Although the 2.1 Ga magmatic event in West Africa has gone virtually unnoticed in the literature, it extends over several thousand kilometers and compares with the distribution of mantle-derived magmatic activity in other major orogenic provinces (e.g. Superior). It shows that the growth rate of continents cannot be extrapolated from the data obtained solely from the best studied continents (North America, Europe, Australia). If such large crustal segments were overlooked, a spurious pattern of episodic activity of the mantle could arise.

  5. Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms.

    Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

    2014-10-24

    The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = -0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world.

  6. Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event.

    Knebl, M R; Yang, Z-L; Hutchison, K; Maidment, D R

    2005-06-01

    This paper develops a framework for regional scale flood modeling that integrates NEXRAD Level III rainfall, GIS, and a hydrological model (HEC-HMS/RAS). The San Antonio River Basin (about 4000 square miles, 10,000 km2) in Central Texas, USA, is the domain of the study because it is a region subject to frequent occurrences of severe flash flooding. A major flood in the summer of 2002 is chosen as a case to examine the modeling framework. The model consists of a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) that converts precipitation excess to overland flow and channel runoff, as well as a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that models unsteady state flow through the river channel network based on the HEC-HMS-derived hydrographs. HEC-HMS is run on a 4 x 4 km grid in the domain, a resolution consistent with the resolution of NEXRAD rainfall taken from the local river authority. Watershed parameters are calibrated manually to produce a good simulation of discharge at 12 subbasins. With the calibrated discharge, HEC-RAS is capable of producing floodplain polygons that are comparable to the satellite imagery. The modeling framework presented in this study incorporates a portion of the recently developed GIS tool named Map to Map that has been created on a local scale and extends it to a regional scale. The results of this research will benefit future modeling efforts by providing a tool for hydrological forecasts of flooding on a regional scale. While designed for the San Antonio River Basin, this regional scale model may be used as a prototype for model applications in other areas of the country.

  7. Prediction of Early Recurrent Thromboembolic Event and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation by a Risk Stratification Schema: The ALESSA Score Study.

    Paciaroni, Maurizio; Agnelli, Giancarlo; Caso, Valeria; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Furie, Karen L; Tadi, Prasanna; Becattini, Cecilia; Falocci, Nicola; Zedde, Marialuisa; Abdul-Rahim, Azmil H; Lees, Kennedy R; Alberti, Andrea; Venti, Michele; Acciarresi, Monica; D'Amore, Cataldo; Mosconi, Maria Giulia; Cimini, Ludovica Anna; Procopio, Antonio; Bovi, Paolo; Carletti, Monica; Rigatelli, Alberto; Cappellari, Manuel; Putaala, Jukka; Tomppo, Liisa; Tatlisumak, Turgut; Bandini, Fabio; Marcheselli, Simona; Pezzini, Alessandro; Poli, Loris; Padovani, Alessandro; Masotti, Luca; Vannucchi, Vieri; Sohn, Sung-Il; Lorenzini, Gianni; Tassi, Rossana; Guideri, Francesca; Acampa, Maurizio; Martini, Giuseppe; Ntaios, George; Karagkiozi, Efstathia; Athanasakis, George; Makaritsis, Kostantinos; Vadikolias, Kostantinos; Liantinioti, Chrysoula; Chondrogianni, Maria; Mumoli, Nicola; Consoli, Domenico; Galati, Franco; Sacco, Simona; Carolei, Antonio; Tiseo, Cindy; Corea, Francesco; Ageno, Walter; Bellesini, Marta; Colombo, Giovanna; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Ciccone, Alfonso; Scoditti, Umberto; Denti, Licia; Mancuso, Michelangelo; Maccarrone, Miriam; Orlandi, Giovanni; Giannini, Nicola; Gialdini, Gino; Tassinari, Tiziana; De Lodovici, Maria Luisa; Bono, Giorgio; Rueckert, Christina; Baldi, Antonio; D'Anna, Sebastiano; Toni, Danilo; Letteri, Federica; Giuntini, Martina; Lotti, Enrico Maria; Flomin, Yuriy; Pieroni, Alessio; Kargiotis, Odysseas; Karapanayiotides, Theodore; Monaco, Serena; Baronello, Mario Maimone; Csiba, Laszló; Szabó, Lilla; Chiti, Alberto; Giorli, Elisa; Del Sette, Massimo; Imberti, Davide; Zabzuni, Dorjan; Doronin, Boris; Volodina, Vera; Michel, Patrik; Vanacker, Peter; Barlinn, Kristian; Pallesen, Lars-Peder; Kepplinger, Jessica; Bodechtel, Ulf; Gerber, Johannes; Deleu, Dirk; Melikyan, Gayane; Ibrahim, Faisal; Akhtar, Naveed; Gourbali, Vanessa; Yaghi, Shadi

    2017-03-01

    This study was designed to derive and validate a score to predict early ischemic events and major bleedings after an acute ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. The derivation cohort consisted of 854 patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation included in prospective series between January 2012 and March 2014. Older age (hazard ratio 1.06 for each additional year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.11) and severe atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.87) were predictors for ischemic outcome events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic embolism) at 90 days from acute stroke. Small lesions (≤1.5 cm) were inversely correlated with both major bleeding (hazard ratio, 0.39; P =0.03) and ischemic outcome events (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-1.00). We assigned to age ≥80 years 2 points and between 70 and 79 years 1 point; ischemic index lesion >1.5 cm, 1 point; severe atrial enlargement, 1 point (ALESSA score). A logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure (C statistic) showed an area under the curve of 0.697 (0.632-0.763; P =0.0001) for ischemic outcome events and 0.585 (0.493-0.678; P =0.10) for major bleedings. The validation cohort consisted of 994 patients included in prospective series between April 2014 and June 2016. Logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure showed an area under the curve of 0.646 (0.529-0.763; P =0.009) for ischemic outcome events and 0.407 (0.275-0.540; P =0.14) for hemorrhagic outcome events. In acute stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, high ALESSA scores were associated with a high risk of ischemic events but not of major bleedings. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. Behaviour of the interplanetary and magnetospheric electric fields during very intense storms

    Wu, Lei; Gendrin, R.; Higel, B.

    1982-01-01

    A study is made of the role which a positive (northward) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bsub(z) may play in triggering large magnetic storms. The study is made over a 15 year period (1964-1978) by selecting storms with Ksub(p) >= 7 0 and which are preceded by a Sudden Commencement (Ssc). The correlation between the geomagnetic index Ksub(m) and the three-hourly averaged Bsub(z) is established both on a statistical basis and on a case-by-case study. Storms associated with Bsub(z) > 0 are found to be less intense than those associated with Bsub(z) < 0, but major storms can be also triggered by solar wind events associated with a northward IMF. The relation-ship between interplanetary electric field Esub(γ) and Ksub(m) is also given. By using this relation together with the one between Esub(M) and Ksub(m) which has been established in previous studies (where Esub(M) is the magnetospheric convection electric field), it is possible to study the transfer efficiency of the magnetosphere. It is found that the transfer coefficient ΔEsub(M)/ΔEsub(γ) is much smaller for intense storms than for moderate ones, the latter having been studied in a previous paper (Wu Lei et al., 1981)

  9. Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms

    Liu Haibin; Davidson, Rachel A.; Apanasovich, Tatiyana V.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents new statistical models that predict the number of hurricane- and ice storm-related electric power outages likely to occur in each 3 kmx3 km grid cell in a region. The models are based on a large database of recent outages experienced by three major East Coast power companies in six hurricanes and eight ice storms. A spatial generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approach was used in which spatial correlation is incorporated through random effects. Models were fitted using a composite likelihood approach and the covariance matrix was estimated empirically. A simulation study was conducted to test the model estimation procedure, and model training, validation, and testing were done to select the best models and assess their predictive power. The final hurricane model includes number of protective devices, maximum gust wind speed, hurricane indicator, and company indicator covariates. The final ice storm model includes number of protective devices, ice thickness, and ice storm indicator covariates. The models should be useful for power companies as they plan for future storms. The statistical modeling approach offers a new way to assess the reliability of electric power and other infrastructure systems in extreme events

  10. Planning of traumatological hospital resources for a major winter sporting event as illustrated by the 2005 Winter Universiad.

    Oberladstaetter, J; Kamelger, F S; Rosenberger, R; Dallapozza, Ch; Struve, P; Luger, T; Fink, Ch; Attal, R

    2009-03-01

    The 22nd Student World Winter Games took place in January 2005 in Innsbruck and Seefeld, Austria. Exactly 1,500 athletes of 50 nationalities competed in 69 events in ten winter sports. A total number of 750 functionaries, 800 volunteers and 85,000 spectators participated in the second largest winter sports event behind the Olympic winter games. The aim of this study was to evaluate the needed resources to ensure traumatological care for an event of that size. At the medical "call-center" all consultations, as well as patient data, diagnosis, and medical treatment were recorded using a preset protocol. Further, all patients treated in the University Hospital Innsbruck were registered with an emphasis on trauma patients. Forty-eight of 65 patients transported to the hospital as a result of the Universiade were trauma patients, 37 of whom were athletes. The gender distribution was 34:14 (m:f). Ice hockey players had the highest rate of injury (25% of all injured athletes), followed by alpine skiers (20.8% of injured athletes). The highest ISS was nine. Forty-three patients got ambulatory treatment, five were admitted to the hospital and surgical treatment was conducted in three cases. Mean patient number was 4.8 per day. No additional personnel, structural, or technical hospital resources were needed to accommodate a large winter sports event like the Universiad. Thus, a level-B trauma center with an emergency room and independent traumatological department with around the clock surgical capability seems to be sufficient to provide traumatological care for an event of this size if the possibility of patient transport to a larger facility exists in the case of catastrophic events.

  11. Nippon Storm Study design

    Takashi Kurita

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available An understanding of the clinical aspects of electrical storm (E-storms in patients with implantable cardiac shock devices (ICSDs: ICDs or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator [CRT-D] may provide important information for clinical management of patients with ICSDs. The Nippon Storm Study was organized by the Japanese Heart Rhythm Society (JHRS and Japanese Society of Electrocardiology and was designed to prospectively collect a variety of data from patients with ICSDs, with a focus on the incidence of E-storms and clinical conditions for the occurrence of an E-storm. Forty main ICSD centers in Japan are participating in the present study. From 2002, the JHRS began to collect ICSD patient data using website registration (termed Japanese cardiac defibrillator therapy registration, or JCDTR. This investigation aims to collect data on and investigate the general parameters of patients with ICSDs, such as clinical backgrounds of the patients, purposes of implantation, complications during the implantation procedure, and incidence of appropriate and inappropriate therapies from the ICSD. The Nippon Storm Study was planned as a sub-study of the JCDTR with focus on E-storms. We aim to achieve registration of more than 1000 ICSD patients and complete follow-up data collection, with the assumption of a 5–10% incidence of E-storms during the 2-year follow-up.

  12. Assessing storm erosion hazards

    Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.; Ciavola, Paolo; Coco, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    The storm erosion hazard on coasts is usually expressed as an erosion volume and/or associated episodic coastline retreat. The accurate assessment of present-day and future storm erosion volumes is a key task for coastal zone managers, planners and engineers. There are four main approaches that can

  13. Anomalous enhancement in daytime 40-kHz signal amplitude accompanied by geomagnetic storms, earthquakes and meteor showers

    B. K. De

    Full Text Available Anomalous propagational characteristics, daytime signal levels greater than night-time, were observed. The amplitude records of a 40-kHz signal propagated over a distance of 5100 km from Sanwa, Japan to Calcutta along a low-latitude path show higher signal strength at midday compared to the midnight level on days preceded by principal geomagnetic storms, earthquakes and major meteor showers. This is explained by the increased ionization in the D-region following geophysical events. The storm after-effects only have a duration of a single day in this low-latitude path.

  14. Anomalous enhancement in daytime 40-kHz signal amplitude accompanied by geomagnetic storms, earthquakes and meteor showers

    B. K. De

    1995-10-01

    Full Text Available Anomalous propagational characteristics, daytime signal levels greater than night-time, were observed. The amplitude records of a 40-kHz signal propagated over a distance of 5100 km from Sanwa, Japan to Calcutta along a low-latitude path show higher signal strength at midday compared to the midnight level on days preceded by principal geomagnetic storms, earthquakes and major meteor showers. This is explained by the increased ionization in the D-region following geophysical events. The storm after-effects only have a duration of a single day in this low-latitude path.

  15. Major clinical events, signs and severity assessment scores related to actual survival in patients who died from primary biliary cirrhosis. A long-term historical cohort study

    van Dam, GM; Gips, CH; Reisman, Y; Maas, KW; Purmer, IM; Huizenga, [No Value; Verbaan, BW

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND/AIMS: One of the prognostic methods for survival in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is the Mayo model, with a time-scale limited to 7 years. The aim of our study was to assess how major clinical events, signs, several severity assessment methods and Mayo survival probabilities fit in with

  16. Depression, anxiety and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in patients following coronary artery bypass graft surgery: A five year longitudinal cohort study

    P.J. Tully (Phillip); H.R. Winefield (Helen); R.A. Baker (Robert); J. Denollet (Johan); S.S. Pedersen (Susanne); G.A. Wittert (Gary); D.A. Turnbull (Deborah)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Although depression and anxiety have been implicated in risk for major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), a theoretical approach to identifying such putative links is lacking. The objective of this study was to examine the association between

  17. Prognostic value of combined CT angiography and myocardial perfusion imaging versus invasive coronary angiography and nuclear stress perfusion imaging in the prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events

    Chen, Marcus Y.; Rochitte, Carlos E.; Arbab-Zadeh, Armin

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To compare the prognostic importance (time to major adverse cardiovascular event [MACE]) of combined computed tomography (CT) angiography and CT myocardial stress perfusion imaging with that of combined invasive coronary angiography (ICA) and stress single photon emission CT myocardial p...

  18. Equivalencies Regarding the Measurement and Constructs of Self-Esteem and Major Life Events in an Asian-Pacific Islander Sampler.

    Miyamoto, Robin H.; Hishinuma, Earl S.; Nishimura, Stephanie T.; Nahulu, Linda B.; Andrade, Naleen N.; Johnson, Ronald C.; Makini, George K., Jr.; Yuen, Noelle Y. C.; Kim, S. Peter; Goebert, Deborah A.; Carlton, Barry S.; Bell, Cathy K.

    2001-01-01

    Examines aspects of self-esteem measures and major life events using the 10-item Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) with Hawaiian, part-Hawaiian, and non-Hawaiian high school students (N=816). There was a lack of consensus regarding the dimensions of RSES as previously reported. Measurement equivalency findings concerning RSES caution against…

  19. The interplay and etiological continuity of neuroticism, difficulties, and life events in the etiology of major and subsyndromal, first and recurrent depressive episodes in later life

    Ormel, J; Oldehinkel, AJ; Brilman, EI

    Objective: Stressful life events, longterm difficulties, and high neuroticism are established risk factors for depression. Less is known about their role in late-life depression, how they modify or mediate one another's effects, and whether this differs between major and subsyndromal, first and

  20. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    breaching. Our results demonstrate that violent, millennial-scale storms can trigger significant large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coasts, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with a single extreme storm event....

  1. Eruptive prominences and long-delay geomagnetic storms

    Wright, C.S.

    1983-01-01

    The relationship between disappearing solar fragments and geomagnetic disturbances was investigated. It is shown that long-delay storms are associated with filaments well removed from the disc centre, and particularly in the case of large filaments and prominences, the proportion of events that produce long-delay storms increases with angular distance from the centre

  2. Atypical antipsychotics olanzapine, quetiapine, and risperidone and risk of acute major cardiovascular events in young and middle-aged adults

    Pasternak, Björn; Svanström, Henrik; Ranthe, Mattis F

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A number of serious cardiovascular safety concerns related to the use of atypical antipsychotics, compared with no use, have emerged, but nearly all reports are from studies of older patients. We aimed to compare the risk of cardiovascular events between the three most commonly used...

  3. Combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data to assess damage severity following a major blowdown event in northern Minnesota, USA

    Mark D. Nelson; Sean P. Healey; W. Keith Moser; Mark H. Hansen

    2009-01-01

    Effects of a catastrophic blowdown event in northern Minnesota, USA were assessed using field inventory data, aerial sketch maps and satellite image data processed through the North American Forest Dynamics programme. Estimates were produced for forest area and net volume per unit area of live trees pre- and post-disturbance, and for changes in volume per unit area and...

  4. A simplified approach for simulating changes in beach habitat due to the combined effectgs of long-term sea level rise, storm erosion, and nourishment

    Better understanding of vulnerability of coastal habitats to sea level rise and major storm events require the use of simulation models. Coastal habitats also undergo frequent nourishment restoration works in order to maintain their viability. Vulnerability models must be able to assess the combined...

  5. Thermospheric mass density variations during geomagnetic storms and a prediction model based on the merging electric field

    R. Liu

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available With the help of four years (2002–2005 of CHAMP accelerometer data we have investigated the dependence of low and mid latitude thermospheric density on the merging electric field, Em, during major magnetic storms. Altogether 30 intensive storm events (Dstmin<−100 nT are chosen for a statistical study. In order to achieve a good correlation Em is preconditioned. Contrary to general opinion, Em has to be applied without saturation effect in order to obtain good results for magnetic storms of all activity levels. The memory effect of the thermosphere is accounted for by a weighted integration of Em over the past 3 h. In addition, a lag time of the mass density response to solar wind input of 0 to 4.5 h depending on latitude and local time is considered. A linear model using the preconditioned Em as main controlling parameter for predicting mass density changes during magnetic storms is developed: ρ=0.5 Em + ρamb, where ρamb is based on the mean density during the quiet day before the storm. We show that this simple relation predicts all storm-induced mass density variations at CHAMP altitude fairly well especially if orbital averages are considered.

  6. Thermospheric mass density variations during geomagnetic storms and a prediction model based on the merging electric field

    Liu, R.; Lühr, H.; Doornbos, E.; Ma, S.-Y.

    2010-09-01

    With the help of four years (2002-2005) of CHAMP accelerometer data we have investigated the dependence of low and mid latitude thermospheric density on the merging electric field, Em, during major magnetic storms. Altogether 30 intensive storm events (Dstmineffect in order to obtain good results for magnetic storms of all activity levels. The memory effect of the thermosphere is accounted for by a weighted integration of Em over the past 3 h. In addition, a lag time of the mass density response to solar wind input of 0 to 4.5 h depending on latitude and local time is considered. A linear model using the preconditioned color: #000;">Em as main controlling parameter for predicting mass density changes during magnetic storms is developed: ρ=0.5 color: #000;">Em + ρamb, where ρamb is based on the mean density during the quiet day before the storm. We show that this simple relation predicts all storm-induced mass density variations at CHAMP altitude fairly well especially if orbital averages are considered.

  7. Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

    Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  8. Coding of adverse events of suicidality in clinical study reports of duloxetine for the treatment of major depressive disorder

    Maund, Emma; Tendal, Britta; Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn

    2014-01-01

    in individual patients within clinical study reports. Where possible, for each event we extracted the original term reported by the investigator, the term as coded by the medical coding dictionary, medical coding dictionary used, and the patient's trial identification number. Using the patient's trial...... for marketing approval. DATA SOURCES: Clinical study reports obtained from the EMA in 2011. RESULTS: Six trials used the medical coding dictionary COSTART (Coding Symbols for a Thesaurus of Adverse Reaction Terms) and three used MedDRA (Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities). Suicides were clearly...... identifiable in all formats of adverse event data in clinical study reports. Suicide attempts presented in tables included both definitive and provisional diagnoses. Suicidal ideation and preparatory behaviour were obscured in some tables owing to the lack of specificity of the medical coding dictionary...

  9. Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.

    Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem, www.prestoews.org, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 security actions. PRESTo also evaluated the accuracy of location and magnitude. Both systems well predict the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a success rate around 90% within the potential damage zone. The lead-time is significantly larger for the network based system, increasing to more than 10s at 40 km from the event epicentre. The stand-alone system better performs in the near-source region showing a positive albeit small lead-time (operational in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, by improving the capability of reducing the lead-time related to data telemetry.

  10. The Influence of Major Life Events on Economic Attitudes in a World of Gene-Environment Interplay.

    Hatemi, Peter K

    2013-10-01

    The role of "genes" on political attitudes has gained attention across disciplines. However, person-specific experiences have yet to be incorporated into models that consider genetic influences. Relying on a gene-environment interplay approach, this study explicates how life-events, such as losing one's job or suffering a financial loss, influence economic policy attitudes. The results indicate genetic and environmental variance on support for unions, immigration, capitalism, socialism and property tax is moderated by financial risks. Changes in the magnitude of genetic influences, however, are temporary. After two years, the phenotypic effects of the life events remain on most attitudes, but changes in the sources of individual differences do not. Univariate twin models that estimate the independent contributions of genes and environment on the variation of attitudes appear to provide robust baseline indicators of sources of individual differences. These estimates, however, are not event or day specific. In this way, genetic influences add stability, while environment cues change, and this process is continually updated.

  11. Interactions between the vascular endothelial growth factor gene polymorphism and life events in susceptibility to major depressive disorder in a Chinese population.

    Han, Dong; Qiao, Zhengxue; Chen, Lu; Qiu, Xiaohui; Fang, Deyu; Yang, Xiuxian; Ma, Jingsong; Chen, Mingqi; Yang, Jiarun; Wang, Lin; Zhu, Xiongzhao; Zhang, Congpei; Yang, Yanjie; Pan, Hui

    2017-08-01

    Recent studies suggest that vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is involved in the development of major depressive disorder. The aim of this study is to investigate the interaction between vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) polymorphism (+405G/C, rs2010963) and negative life events in the pathogenesis of major depressive disorder (MDD). DNA genotyping was performed on peripheral blood leukocytes in 274 patients with MDD and 273 age-and sex-matched controls. The frequency and severity of negative life events were assessed by the Life Events Scale (LES). A logistics method was employed to assess the gene-environment interaction (G×E). Differences in rs2010963 genotype distributions were observed between MDD patients and controls. Significant G×E interactions between allelic variation of rs2010963 and negative life events were observed. Individuals carrying the C alleles were susceptible to MDD only when exposed to high-negative life events. These results indicate that interactions between the VEGF rs2010963 polymorphism and environment increases the risk of developing MDD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Alcohol intoxication in the context of major public holidays, sporting and social events: a time-series analysis in Melbourne, Australia, 2000-2009.

    Lloyd, Belinda; Matthews, Sharon; Livingston, Michael; Jayasekara, Harindra; Smith, Karen

    2013-04-01

    To assess the relationship between ambulance attendances, emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital admissions for acute alcohol intoxication and the timing of public holidays, sporting and social events. Time-series analysis was used to explore trends in intoxication in the context of major events. Population of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia between 2000 and 2009. All patients attended by ambulance, presenting to hospital EDs, or admitted to hospital who were classified as acutely alcohol intoxicated. Analysis of daily numbers of presentations for acute alcohol intoxication associated with major events were undertaken, including lead and lag effects. Analyses controlled for day of week and month of year to address temporal and seasonal variations. Alcohol intoxication presentations were significantly elevated the day before all public holidays, with intoxication cases on the day of public holidays only higher on New Year's Day (ambulance 6.57, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 3.4-9.74; ED 3.34, 95% CI: 1.28-5.4) and ANZAC Day (ambulance 3.71, 95% CI: 0.68-6.75). The Australian Football League (AFL) Grand Final (ED 2.37, 95% CI: 0.55-4.19), Commonwealth Games (ED 2.45, 95% CI: 0.6-4.3) and Melbourne Cup Day (ambulance 6.14, 95% CI: 2.42-9.85) represented the sporting events with significant elevations in acute intoxication requiring medical attention. The last working day before Christmas was the only social event where a significant increase in acute intoxication occurred (ambulance 8.98, 95% CI: 6.8-11.15). Acute alcohol intoxication cases requiring ambulance, emergency department and hospital in-patient treatment increase substantially on the day preceding public holidays and other major social events. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  13. Binary Logistic Regression Versus Boosted Regression Trees in Assessing Landslide Susceptibility for Multiple-Occurring Regional Landslide Events: Application to the 2009 Storm Event in Messina (Sicily, southern Italy).

    Lombardo, L.; Cama, M.; Maerker, M.; Parisi, L.; Rotigliano, E.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims at comparing the performances of Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) methods in assessing landslide susceptibility for multiple-occurrence regional landslide events within the Mediterranean region. A test area was selected in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (southern Italy), corresponding to the catchments of the Briga and the Giampilieri streams both stretching for few kilometres from the Peloritan ridge (eastern Sicily, Italy) to the Ionian sea. This area was struck on the 1st October 2009 by an extreme climatic event resulting in thousands of rapid shallow landslides, mainly of debris flows and debris avalanches types involving the weathered layer of a low to high grade metamorphic bedrock. Exploiting the same set of predictors and the 2009 landslide archive, BLR- and BRT-based susceptibility models were obtained for the two catchments separately, adopting a random partition (RP) technique for validation; besides, the models trained in one of the two catchments (Briga) were tested in predicting the landslide distribution in the other (Giampilieri), adopting a spatial partition (SP) based validation procedure. All the validation procedures were based on multi-folds tests so to evaluate and compare the reliability of the fitting, the prediction skill, the coherence in the predictor selection and the precision of the susceptibility estimates. All the obtained models for the two methods produced very high predictive performances, with a general congruence between BLR and BRT in the predictor importance. In particular, the research highlighted that BRT-models reached a higher prediction performance with respect to BLR-models, for RP based modelling, whilst for the SP-based models the difference in predictive skills between the two methods dropped drastically, converging to an analogous excellent performance. However, when looking at the precision of the probability estimates, BLR demonstrated to produce more robust

  14. Nuclear security and radiological preparedness for the olympic games, athens 2004: lessons learned for organizing major public events.

    Kamenopoulou, Vassiliki; Dimitriou, Panayiotis; Hourdakis, Constantine J; Maltezos, Antonios; Matikas, Theodore; Potiriadis, Constantinos; Camarinopoulos, Leonidas

    2006-10-01

    In light of the exceptional circumstances that arose from hosting the Olympic Games in Athens in 2004 and from recent terrorist events internationally, Greece attributes the highest priority to security issues. According to its statutory role, the Greek Atomic Energy Commission is responsible for emergency preparedness and response in case of nuclear and radiological events, and advises the Government on the measures and interventions necessary to protect the public. In this context, the Commission participated in the Nuclear, Radiological, Biological, and Chemical Threat National Emergency Plan, specially developed for the Olympic Games, and coordinated by the Olympic Games Security Division. The objective of this paper is to share the experience gained during the organization of the Olympic Games and to present the nuclear security program implemented prior to, during, and beyond the Games, in order to prevent, detect, assess, and respond to the threat of nuclear terrorism. This program adopted a multi-area coverage of nuclear security, including physical protection of nuclear and radiological facilities, prevention of smuggling of radioactive materials through borders, prevention of dispersion of these materials into the Olympic venues, enhancement of emergency preparedness and response to radiological events, upgrading of the technical infrastructure, establishment of new procedures for assessing the threat and responding to radiological incidents, and training personnel belonging to several organizations involved in the National Emergency Response Plan. Finally, the close cooperation of Greek Authorities with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy, under the coordination of the Greek Atomic Energy Commission, is also discussed.

  15. A comparison of the physical properties of desert dust retrieved from the sunphotometer observation of major events in the Sahara, Sahel, and Arabian Peninsula

    Masmoudi, Mohamed

    2015-05-01

    © 2015 Elsevier B.V. The objective of this work is to assess the variability of the size-distribution, real (n) and imaginary (k) parts of the refractive index, asymmetry parameter (g), and single scattering albedo (SSA) of desert dust events observed in the Sahara, Sahel, and Arabian Peninsula areas. For this we use the level-2 inversions of 14 AERONET sunphotometers representative of the area of study. In the dataset, the dust-dominated events are discriminated on the basis of their large optical depth and low (<. 0.3) Ångström exponent (α) calculated between 440. nm and 870. nm. In all the volume size-distributions a coarse mode (CM) of particles is observed but a fine mode (FM) of particles with radii. <. 0.2. μm is also present. The volume fraction represented by the FM is lower (3%) during the most intense dust storms than during moderate ones (12%). The inter-site variability of the characteristics of the CM-dominated situations is found to be non-significant and at 440, 675, 870, and 1020. nm a common set of values can be adopted for n (1.54 ± 0.03, 1.53 ± 0.02, 1.50 ± 0.02, 1.48 ± 0.02), k (0.0037 ± 0.0007, 0.0012 ± 0.0002, 0.0011 ± 0.0002, 0.0012 ± 0.0002), g (0.77 ± 0.01, 0.74 ± 0.01, 0.73 ± 0.01, 0.74 ± 0.01), and the SSA (0.90 ± 0.02, 0.97 ± 0.01, 0.98 ± 0.01, 0.98 ± 0.01). However; during the less intense dust-events the growing influence of the FM leads to regional differentiation of the dust properties and 2 main areas can be distinguished: 1) the relatively clean central Sahara/Sahel, and 2) the more polluted continuum constituted by the Mediterranean coast and the Arabian Peninsula.

  16. A comparison of the physical properties of desert dust retrieved from the sunphotometer observation of major events in the Sahara, Sahel, and Arabian Peninsula

    Masmoudi, Mohamed; Alfaro, Sté phane C.; El Metwally, Mossad

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Elsevier B.V. The objective of this work is to assess the variability of the size-distribution, real (n) and imaginary (k) parts of the refractive index, asymmetry parameter (g), and single scattering albedo (SSA) of desert dust events observed in the Sahara, Sahel, and Arabian Peninsula areas. For this we use the level-2 inversions of 14 AERONET sunphotometers representative of the area of study. In the dataset, the dust-dominated events are discriminated on the basis of their large optical depth and low (<. 0.3) Ångström exponent (α) calculated between 440. nm and 870. nm. In all the volume size-distributions a coarse mode (CM) of particles is observed but a fine mode (FM) of particles with radii. <. 0.2. μm is also present. The volume fraction represented by the FM is lower (3%) during the most intense dust storms than during moderate ones (12%). The inter-site variability of the characteristics of the CM-dominated situations is found to be non-significant and at 440, 675, 870, and 1020. nm a common set of values can be adopted for n (1.54 ± 0.03, 1.53 ± 0.02, 1.50 ± 0.02, 1.48 ± 0.02), k (0.0037 ± 0.0007, 0.0012 ± 0.0002, 0.0011 ± 0.0002, 0.0012 ± 0.0002), g (0.77 ± 0.01, 0.74 ± 0.01, 0.73 ± 0.01, 0.74 ± 0.01), and the SSA (0.90 ± 0.02, 0.97 ± 0.01, 0.98 ± 0.01, 0.98 ± 0.01). However; during the less intense dust-events the growing influence of the FM leads to regional differentiation of the dust properties and 2 main areas can be distinguished: 1) the relatively clean central Sahara/Sahel, and 2) the more polluted continuum constituted by the Mediterranean coast and the Arabian Peninsula.

  17. Storm Data Publication

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 'Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena' is a monthly publication containing a chronological listing, by state, of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail,...

  18. Storm surge climatology report

    Horsburgh, Kevin; Williams, Joanne; Cussack, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Any increase in flood frequency or severity due to sea level rise or changes in storminess would adversely impact society. It is crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges to have confidence in the datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. We will refine and improve methods to the estimation of extreme sea levels around Europe and more widely. We will do so by developing a comprehensive world picture of storm surge distribution (including extremes) for both tropi...

  19. Carotid Artery Intima-Media Thickness Predicts Major Cardiovascular Events During 7-Year Follow-Up in 64-Year-Old Women Irrespective of Other Glucometabolic Factors.

    Schmidt, Caroline; Bergström, Göran

    2017-07-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Most CV events are caused by atherosclerosis. Diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance are associated with greater carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and increased risk for CVD. The present study examined if common carotid artery IMT (CCAIMT) is predictive of CVD irrespective of glucose tolerance category and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in a sample of 639 women with different glucose tolerance categories. During 7-year follow-up, 30 events in the cardiac and 32 events in the cerebral territory were documented. Unadjusted Cox hazard models showed that CCAIMT, glucose tolerance category, and HbA1c were associated with increased risk. An adjusted and extended model, including CCAIMT, glucose tolerance category, and HbA1c, showed that CCAIMT was still associated with events with an almost unchanged hazard ratio. In conclusion, this study suggests that CCAIMT is predictive of major CV events during 7-year follow-up, irrespective of glucose tolerance category, HbA1c, and other established risk factors in a cohort of 64-year-old women.

  20. The association of suicide risk with negative life events and social support according to gender in Asian patients with major depressive disorder.

    Park, Subin; Hatim Sulaiman, Ahmad; Srisurapanont, Manit; Chang, Sung-man; Liu, Chia-Yih; Bautista, Dianne; Ge, Lan; Choon Chua, Hong; Pyo Hong, Jin

    2015-08-30

    We investigated the associations between negative life events, social support, depressive and hostile symptoms, and suicide risk according to gender in multinational Asian patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). A total of 547 outpatients with MDD (352 women and 195 men, mean age of 39.58±13.21 years) were recruited in China, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan. All patients were assessed with the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale, the Symptoms Checklist 90-Revised, the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, and the List of Threatening Experiences. Negative life events, social support, depressive symptoms, and hostility were all significantly associated with suicidality in female MDD patients. However, only depressive symptoms and hostility were significantly associated with suicidality in male patients. Depression severity and hostility only partially mediated the association of negative life events and poor social support with suicidality in female patients. In contrast, hostility fully mediated the association of negative life events and poor social support with suicidality in male patients. Our results highlight the need of in-depth assessment of suicide risk for depressed female patients who report a number of negative life events and poor social supports, even if they do not show severe psychopathology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area.

    Shimkus, Cari E; Ting, Mingfang; Booth, James F; Adamo, Susana B; Madajewicz, Malgosia; Kushnir, Yochanan; Rieder, Harald E

    2017-07-01

    Winter storms pose numerous hazards to the Northeast United States, including rain, snow, strong wind, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions of dollars in damages from one storm alone. This study investigates meteorological intensity and impacts of winter storms from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and underscores the consequences of winter storms. The study selected 70 winter storms on the basis of station observations of surface wind strength, heavy precipitation, high storm tide, and snow extremes. Storm rankings differed between measures, suggesting that intensity is not easily defined with a single metric. Several storms fell into two or more categories (multiple-category storms). Following storm selection, property damages were examined to determine which types lead to high losses. The analysis of hazards (or events) and associated damages using the Storm Events Database of the National Centers for Environmental Information indicates that multiple-category storms were responsible for a greater portion of the damage. Flooding was responsible for the highest losses, but no discernible connection exists between the number of storms that afflict a county and the damage it faces. These results imply that losses may rely more on the incidence of specific hazards, infrastructure types, and property values, which vary throughout the region. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

  2. Atmospheric Electricity Effects of Eastern Mediterranean Dust Storms

    Katz, Shai; Yair, Yoav; Yaniv, Roy; Price, Colin

    2016-04-01

    comparison between the two events are very different from the mean fair-weather values measured at both sites. Dust storms with such intensities are often accompanied by large electrical charging, most likely due to triboelectric processes. The differences in the aerosol source region and meteorological conditions have a major influence on the amount of the electrical charge during such storms. One notable difference between the two events is the wind intensity: while during the February event the Ez and Jz fluctuations were well correlated with wind speeds in excess of 60 km h-1, the winds in the September event rarely exceeded 40 km h-1. Different estimates of the charge generation mechanisms will be discussed.

  3. Springtime major pollution events by aerosol over Paris Area: From a case study to a multiannual analysis

    Chazette, Patrick; Royer, Philippe

    2017-08-01

    A study of the intense spring pollution events occurring between 2007 and 2016 on the Paris Area is presented using ground-based and spaceborne measurements. Emphasis is placed on 2011 where data included ground-based lidar measurements. This last period corresponds with the highest regional pollution levels of the past decade. The information threshold (daily average of (mass concentration of particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) PM10 > 50 μg m-3) was exceeded 16 times, while the alert threshold (daily average of PM10 > 80 μg m-3) was exceeded twice. The information (alert) threshold exists to protect the most fragile people (the entire population). Ground-based and spaceborne measurements demonstrate the benefit of their synergy as each is representative of specific space and time scales. The operational products of the spaceborne instruments Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer are used. For 2011, CALIOP vertical profiles are inversed to assess the backscatter to extinction ratio, which is then successfully compared with similar results derived from the CALIOP operational products, a ground-based lidar and Sun photometers. The aerosols are identified to be polluted continental and polluted dust aerosols following the criteria used for the inversion of the CALIOP profiles. Aerosol typing is consistent between the ground-based and spaceborne lidars, demonstrating the importance of CALIOP for other years where the ground-based lidar was not in operation. The main pollution sources responsible for the spring aerosol pollution, occurring during anticyclonic meteorological conditions, are identified as coming from Western Europe: Benelux, Rhine-Ruhr area, and the Lorraine area.

  4. The 2005 and 2012 major drought events in Iberia: monitoring vegetation dynamics and crop yields using satellite data.

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2014-05-01

    large sectors of Iberia for up to seven months (out of eleven) of the vegetative cycle. While in the case of the drought episode of 2005 the impact on vegetation covered roughly 2/3 of the Iberian Peninsula (Gouveia et al., 2012), whereas in the recent episode of 2012 the deficit in greenness affected a more restrictive area located in central Iberia. The vegetation response to water stress was also analysed and compared for different land cover types. Results revealed a stronger vulnerability to drought events for arable land with severe impacts on cereals crop productions and yield (namely wheat), for Portugal and Spain in both years, however slightly less severe for 2012. In conclusion, and from an operational point of view, our results reveal the ability of the developed methodology to monitor vegetation stress and droughts in Iberia. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAG-GLO/4155/2012) Garcia-Herrera R., Paredes D., Trigo R. M., Trigo I. F., Hernandez E., Barriopedro D. and Mendes M. A., 2007: The Outstanding 2004/05 Drought in the Iberian Peninsula: Associated Atmospheric Circulation, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 483-498. Gouveia C., Trigo R. M., and DaCamara C. C., 2009: Drought and vegetation stress monitoring in Portugal using satellite data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 185-195, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-185- 2009. Gouveia C.M., Bastos A., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C., 2012: Drought impacts on vegetation in the pre and post-fire events over Iberian Peninsula". Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences, 12, 3123-3137, 2012, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3123-2012. Hoerling M., Eischeid J., Perlwitz J., Quan X., Zhang T., Pegion P., 2012: On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought. J. Climate, 25, 2146-2161. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1 Trigo R.M., Añel J., Barriopedro D., García-Herrera R., Gimeno L., Nieto R., Castillo R., Allen

  5. Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

    2007-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

  6. South Africa's marketing strategies towards major African regional economic players: the case of the 2010 FIFA World Cup –was it truly an African event?

    PPS Sifolo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article critically examines the effect and the dynamics of the 2010 FIFA World Cup in relation to major African regional economic players. It was conducted with an assumption that the branding of the 2010 FIFA World Cup as „Africa‟s Time‟, „Africa‟s moment‟, and „Africa‟s turn‟ to the benefit of the continent would be viewed with pessimism, at least by the (Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana and Nigeria major African regional economic players, as an event that did not benefit the continent as a whole but South Africa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. This article used phenomenological strategy under qualitative methods whereby face to face interviews were conducted from a sample drawn from the pool of diplomatic community and the staff of relevant Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs and Inter-Governmental Organisations (IGOs in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The results revealed that an event was a tremendous boost to the pride and confidence of Africa and its people. Credit should be given to South Africa for taking the leading role in marketing an event as African and not as South African. Such marketing strategy did not only ensure African ownership but instilled the sense of African pride.

  7. Tree-ring based reconstruction of the seasonal timing, major events and origin of rockfall on a case-study slope in the Swiss Alps

    D. M. Schneuwly

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Tree-ring analysis has been used to reconstruct 22 years of rockfall behavior on an active rockfall slope near Saas Balen (Swiss Alps. We analyzed 32 severely injured trees (L. decidua, P. abies and P. cembra and investigated cross-sections of 154 wounds.

    The intra-annual position of callus tissue and of tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts was determined in order to reconstruct the seasonality of past rockfall events. Results indicate strong intra- and inter-annual variations of rockfall activity, with a peak (76% observed in the dormant season (early October – end of May. Within the growth season, rockfall regularly occurs between the end of May and mid July (21.4%, whereas events later in the season appear to be quite rare (2.6%. Findings suggest that rockfall activity at the study site is driven by annual thawing processes and the circulation of melt water in preexisting fissures. Data also indicate that 43% of all rockfall events occurred in 1995, when two major precipitation events are recorded in nearby meteorological stations. Finally, data on impact angles are in very good agreement with the geomorphic situation in the field.

  8. Biological effects of geomagnetic storms

    Chibisov, S.M.; Breus, T.K.; Levitin, A.E.; Drogova, G.M.; AN SSSR, Moscow; AN SSSR, Moscow

    1995-01-01

    Six physiological parameters of cardio-vascular system of rabbits and ultrastructure of cardiomyocytes were investigated during two planetary geomagnetic storms. At the initial and main phase of the storm the normal circadian structure in each cardiovascular parameter was lost. The disynchronozis was growing together with the storm and abrupt drop of cardia activity was observed during the main phase of storm. The main phase of storm followed by the destruction and degradation of cardiomyocytes. Parameters of cardia activity became substantially synchronized and characterized by circadian rhythm structure while the amplitude of deviations was still significant at the recovery stage of geomagnetic storm. 3 refs.; 7 figs

  9. Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

    Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

  10. Searching for storm water inflows in foul sewers using fibre-optic distributed temperature sensing

    Schilperoort, R.; Hoppe, H.; Haan, C.; Langeveld, J.G.

    2012-01-01

    A major drawback of separate sewer systems is the occurrence of illicit connections: unintended sewer cross-connections that connect foul water outlets from residential or industrial premises to the storm water system and/or storm water outlets to the foul sewer system. The amount of unwanted storm

  11. Progress in the Study of Coastal Storm Deposits

    Xiong, Haixian; Huang, Guangqing; Fu, Shuqing; Qian, Peng

    2018-05-01

    Numerous studies have been carried out to identify storm deposits and decipher storm-induced sedimentary processes in coastal and shallow-marine areas. This study aims to provide an in-depth review on the study of coastal storm deposits from the following five aspects. 1) The formation of storm deposits is a function of hydrodynamic and sedimentary processes under the constraints of local geological and ecological factors. Many questions remain to demonstrate the genetic links between storm-related processes and a variety of resulting deposits such as overwash deposits, underwater deposits and hummocky cross-stratification (HCS). Future research into the formation of storm deposits should combine flume experiments, field observations and numerical simulations, and make full use of sediment source tracing methods. 2) Recently there has been rapid growth in the number of studies utilizing sediment provenance analysis to investigate the source of storm deposits. The development of source tracing techniques, such as mineral composition, magnetic susceptibility, microfossil and geochemical property, has allowed for better understanding of the depositional processes and environmental changes associated with coastal storms. 3) The role of extreme storms in the sedimentation of low-lying coastal wetlands with diverse ecosystem services has also drawn a great deal of attention. Many investigations have attempted to quantify widespread land loss, vertical marsh sediment accumulation and wetland elevation change induced by major hurricanes. 4) Paleostorm reconstructions based on storm sedimentary proxies have shown many advantages over the instrumental records and historic documents as they allow for the reconstruction of storm activities on millennial or longer time scales. Storm deposits having been used to establish proxies mainly include beach ridges and shelly cheniers, coral reefs, estuary-deltaic storm sequences and overwash deposits. Particularly over the past few

  12. Long-term variability of dust-storms in Iceland

    Dagsson-Waldhauserová, Pavla; Ólafsson, Haraldur; Arnalds, Ólafur

    2013-04-01

    Iceland is a volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean with maritime climate. In spite of moist climate, large areas are with limited vegetation cover where >40% of Iceland is classified with considerable to very severe erosion and 21% of Iceland are volcanic sandy deserts. Natural emissions from these sources influenced by strong winds affect not only regional air quality in Iceland ("Reykjavik haze") but dust particles are transported over the Atlantic ocean and Arctic Ocean > 1000 km at times. The study places Icelandic dust production area into international perspective, present long term frequency of dust storm events in NE Iceland, and estimate dust aerosol concentrations during reported dust events. Meteorological observations with dust presence codes and related visibility were used to identify the frequency and the long-term changes in dust production in NE Iceland. There were annually 16.4 days on average with reported dust observations on weather stations within the NE erosion area, indicating extreme dust plume activity and erosion within the NE deserts, even though the area is covered with snow during the major part of winter. During the 2000s the highest occurrence of dust events in six decades was reported. We have measured saltation and aeolian transport during dust/volcanic ash storms in Iceland which give some of the most intense wind erosion events ever measured. Icelandic dust affects the ecosystems over much of Iceland and causes regional haze. It is likely to affect the ecosystems of the oceans around Iceland, and it brings dust that lowers the albedo of the Icelandic glaciers, increasing melt-off due to global warming. The study indicates that Icelandic dust is not only a substantial source for regional air pollution, but may be considered to contribute to the Arctic haze phenomena and Arctic air pollution.

  13. Spring Dust Storm Smothers Beijing

    2002-01-01

    A few days earlier than usual, a large, dense plume of dust blew southward and eastward from the desert plains of Mongolia-quite smothering to the residents of Beijing. Citizens of northeastern China call this annual event the 'shachenbao,' or 'dust cloud tempest.' However, the tempest normally occurs during the spring time. The dust storm hit Beijing on Friday night, March 15, and began coating everything with a fine, pale brown layer of grit. The region is quite dry; a problem some believe has been exacerbated by decades of deforestation. According to Chinese government estimates, roughly 1 million tons of desert dust and sand blow into Beijing each year. This true-color image was made using two adjacent swaths (click to see the full image) of data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), flying aboard the OrbView-2 satellite, on March 17, 2002. The massive dust storm (brownish pixels) can easily be distinguished from clouds (bright white pixels) as it blows across northern Japan and eastward toward the open Pacific Ocean. The black regions are gaps between SeaWiFS' viewing swaths and represent areas where no data were collected. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

  14. The nature of delayed dream incorporation ('dream-lag effect'): Personally significant events persist, but not major daily activities or concerns.

    Eichenlaub, Jean-Baptiste; van Rijn, Elaine; Phelan, Mairéad; Ryder, Larnia; Gaskell, M Gareth; Lewis, Penelope A; P Walker, Matthew; Blagrove, Mark

    2018-04-22

    Incorporation of details from waking life events into rapid eye movement (REM) sleep dreams has been found to be highest on the 2 nights after, and then 5-7 nights after, the event. These are termed, respectively, the day-residue and dream-lag effects. This study is the first to categorize types of waking life experiences and compare their incorporation into dreams across multiple successive nights. Thirty-eight participants completed a daily diary each evening and a dream diary each morning for 14 days. In the daily diary, three categories of experiences were reported: major daily activities (MDAs), personally significant events (PSEs) and major concerns (MCs). After the 14-day period each participant identified the correspondence between items in their daily diaries and subsequent dream reports. The day-residue and dream-lag effects were found for the incorporation of PSEs into dreams (effect sizes of .33 and .27, respectively), but only for participants (n = 19) who had a below-median total number of correspondences between daily diary items and dream reports (termed "low-incorporators" as opposed to "high-incorporators"). Neither the day-residue or dream-lag effects were found for MDAs or MCs. This U-shaped timescale of incorporation of events from daily life into dreams has been proposed to reflect REM sleep-dependent memory consolidation, possibly related to emotional memory processing. This study had a larger sample size of dreams than any dream-lag study hitherto with trained participants. Coupled with previous successful replications, there is thus substantial evidence supporting the dream-lag effect and further explorations of its mechanism, including its neural underpinnings, are warranted. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Sleep Research published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Sleep Research Society.

  15. Effects of the major sudden stratospheric warming event of 2009 on the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency radio signals

    Pal, S.; Hobara, Y.; Chakrabarti, S. K.; Schnoor, P. W.

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents effects of the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event of 2009 on the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency (VLF/LF) radio signals propagating in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. Signal amplitudes from four transmitters received by VLF/LF radio networks of Germany and Japan corresponding to the major SSW event are investigated for possible anomalies and atmospheric influence on the high- to middle-latitude ionosphere. Significant anomalous increase or decrease of nighttime and daytime amplitudes of VLF/LF signals by ˜3-5 dB during the SSW event have been found for all propagation paths associated with stratospheric temperature rise at 10 hPa level. Increase or decrease in VLF/LF amplitudes during daytime and nighttime is actually due to the modification of the lower ionospheric boundary conditions in terms of electron density and electron-neutral collision frequency profiles and associated modal interference effects between the different propagating waveguide modes during the SSW period. TIMED/SABER mission data are also used to investigate the upper mesospheric conditions over the VLF/LF propagation path during the same time period. We observe a decrease in neutral temperature and an increase in pressure at the height of 75-80 km around the peak time of the event. VLF/LF anomalies are correlated and in phase with the stratospheric temperature and mesospheric pressure variation, while minimum of mesospheric cooling shows a 2-3 day delay with maximum VLF/LF anomalies. Simulations of VLF/LF diurnal variation are performed using the well-known Long Wave Propagating Capability (LWPC) code within the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to explain the VLF/LF anomalies qualitatively.

  16. A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

    Cid Consuelo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the “Carrington-like” event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT; (b the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs; and (c the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected.

  17. [Is a patient's knowledge of cardiovascular risk factors better after the occurrence of a major ischemic event? Survey of 135 cases and 260 controls].

    Lensel, A-S; Lermusiaux, P; Boileau, C; Feugier, P; Sérusclat, A; Zerbib, Y; Ninet, J

    2013-12-01

    We hypothezised that patients (cases) who are hospitalized for a major ischemic event--myocardial infarction, stroke, decompensation of peripheral arterial disease--acquire better knowledge than a control population--atheromatous patients without a major ischemic event, patients consulting for a vein disease or a diabetes evaluation, and accompanists--about cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity) and have a better understanding of the usefulness of making changes in their lifestyle (quit smoking, regular exercise, Mediterranean diet, low salt diet, weight control, diabetes care). A questionnaire was proposed at vascular surgery consultations and vascular and cardiac functional explorations, at the M Pavillon of the Édouard-Herriot hospital, Lyon, France. In five months, 395 questionnaires (135 cases and 260 controls) were analyzed. The global knowledge score was statistically higher for cases than for controls (cases 3.23±1.81; controls 2.77±2.03; P=0.037). Cases did not abide by monitoring and dietary rules better, except as regards the management of diabetes. Regular physical activity was statistically more prevalent among controls than among cases. Cases mainly received their information from their doctors (general practitioner for 59% of controls and 78% of cases, cardiologist for 25% of controls and 57% of cases) while controls got their information more through magazines or advertising. Our results show that after a major ischemic event, cases' knowledge of risk factors is better than the rest of the population without improved rules lifestyle changes. This suggests the usefulness of evaluating a therapeutic education program for atheromatous disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  18. Comparison of RISK-PCI, GRACE, TIMI risk scores for prediction of major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

    Jakimov, Tamara; Mrdović, Igor; Filipović, Branka; Zdravković, Marija; Djoković, Aleksandra; Hinić, Saša; Milić, Nataša; Filipović, Branislav

    2017-12-31

    To compare the prognostic performance of three major risk scoring systems including global registry for acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), and prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (RISK-PCI). This single-center retrospective study involved 200 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent invasive diagnostic approach, ie, coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization if appropriate, in the period from January 2014 to July 2014. The GRACE, TIMI, and RISK-PCI risk scores were compared for their predictive ability. The primary endpoint was a composite 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), which included death, urgent target-vessel revascularization (TVR), stroke, and non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction (REMI). The c-statistics of the tested scores for 30-day MACE or area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with confidence intervals (CI) were as follows: RISK-PCI (AUC=0.94; 95% CI 1.790-4.353), the GRACE score on admission (AUC=0.73; 95% CI 1.013-1.045), the GRACE score on discharge (AUC=0.65; 95% CI 0.999-1.033). The RISK-PCI score was the only score that could predict TVR (AUC=0.91; 95% CI 1.392-2.882). The RISK-PCI scoring system showed an excellent discriminative potential for 30-day death (AUC=0.96; 95% CI 1.339-3.548) in comparison with the GRACE scores on admission (AUC=0.88; 95% CI 1.018-1.072) and on discharge (AUC=0.78; 95% CI 1.000-1.058). In comparison with the GRACE and TIMI scores, RISK-PCI score showed a non-inferior ability to predict 30-day MACE and death in ACS patients. Moreover, RISK-PCI was the only scoring system that could predict recurrent ischemia requiring TVR.

  19. Prediction of early recurrent thromboembolic event and major bleeding in patients with acute stroke and atrial fibrillation by a risk stratification schema: the ALESSA score study

    Paciaroni, Maurizio; Agnelli, Giancarlo; Caso, Valeria; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Furie, Karen L; Tadi, Prasanna; Becattini, Cecilia; Falocci, Nicola; Zedde, Marialuisa; Abdul-Rahim, Azmil H.; Lees, Kennedy R.; Alberti, Andrea; Venti, Michele; Acciarresi, Monica; D'Amore, Cataldo

    2017-01-01

    Background and Purposes—This study was designed to derive and validate a score to predict early ischemic events and major bleedings after an acute ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation.\\ud \\ud Methods—The derivation cohort consisted of 854 patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation included in prospective series between January 2012 and March 2014. Older age (hazard ratio 1.06 for each additional year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–1.11) and severe atrial enlar...

  20. California's Perfect Storm

    Bacon, David

    2010-01-01

    The United States today faces an economic crisis worse than any since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nowhere is it sharper than in the nation's schools. Last year, California saw a perfect storm of protest in virtually every part of its education system. K-12 teachers built coalitions with parents and students to fight for their jobs and their…

  1. Dave Storm esitleb singlit

    2002-01-01

    7. märtsil klubis Spirit ja 8. märtsil klubis Terminal presenteerib tallinlane DJ Dave Storm oma uut singlit "Ride", millel teeb laulmisega kaasa ameeriklane Charlie C. Singelplaadi annab peadselt välja Inglise plaadifirma Refunkt

  2. Interview with Gert Storm

    Storm, Gerrit

    2013-01-01

    Gert Storm studied biology at the Utrecht University, The Netherlands, and obtained his PhD degree in 1987 at the Department of Pharmaceutics of the same university. He is now Professor of targeted drug delivery at the University of Utrecht, as well as Professor of targeted therapeutics at the MIRA

  3. No Calm After the Storm: A Systematic Review of Human Health Following Flood and Storm Disasters.

    Saulnier, Dell D; Brolin Ribacke, Kim; von Schreeb, Johan

    2017-10-01

    Introduction How the burden of disease varies during different phases after floods and after storms is essential in order to guide a medical response, but it has not been well-described. The objective of this review was to elucidate the health problems following flood and storm disasters. A literature search of the databases Medline (US National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA); Cinahl (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Global Health (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Web of Science Core Collection (Thomson Reuters; New York, New York USA); Embase (Elsevier; Amsterdam, Netherlands); and PubMed (National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA) was conducted in June 2015 for English-language research articles on morbidity or mortality and flood or storm disasters. Articles on mental health, interventions, and rescue or health care workers were excluded. Data were extracted from articles that met the eligibility criteria and analyzed by narrative synthesis. The review included 113 studies. Poisonings, wounds, gastrointestinal infections, and skin or soft tissue infections all increased after storms. Gastrointestinal infections were more frequent after floods. Leptospirosis and diabetes-related complications increased after both. The majority of changes occurred within four weeks of floods or storms. Health changes differently after floods and after storms. There is a lack of data on the health effects of floods alone, long-term changes in health, and the strength of the association between disasters and health problems. This review highlights areas of consideration for medical response and the need for high-quality, systematic research in this area. Saulnier DD , Brolin Ribacke K , von Schreeb J . No calm after the storm: a systematic review of human health following flood and storm disasters. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):568-579.

  4. Vulnerability Assessment of Dust Storms in the United States under a Changing Climate Scenario

    Severe weather events, such as flooding, drought, forest fires, and dust storms can have a serious impact on human health. Dust storm events are not well predicted in the United States, however they are expected to become more frequent as global climate warms through the 21st cen...

  5. Role of storms and forest practices in sedimentation of an Oregon Coast Range lake

    Richardson, K.; Hatten, J. A.; Wheatcroft, R. A.; Guerrero, F. J.

    2014-12-01

    The design of better management practices in forested watersheds to face climate change and the associated increase in the frequency of extreme events requires a better understanding of watershed responses to extreme events in the past and also under management regimes. One of the most sensitive watershed processes affected is sediment yield. Lake sediments record events which occur in a watershed and provide an opportunity to examine the interaction of storms and forest management practices in the layers of the stratigraphy. We hypothesize that timber harvesting and road building since the 1900s has resulted in increases in sedimentation; however, the passage of the Oregon Forest Practices Act (OFPA) in 1972 has led to a decrease in sedimentation. Sediment cores were taken at Loon Lake in the Oregon Coast Range. The 32-m deep lake captures sediment from a catchment highly impacted by recent land use and episodic Pacific storms. We can use sedimentological tools to measure changes in sediment production as motivated by extreme floods before settlement, during a major timber harvesting period, and after installation of forestry Best Management Practices. Quantification of changes in particle size and elemental composition (C, N, C/N) throughout the cores can elucidate changes in watershed response to extreme events, as can changes in layer thickness. Age control in the cores is being established by Cesium-137 and radiocarbon dating. Given the instrumental meteorological data and decadal climate reconstructions, we will disentangle climate driven signals from changes in land use practices. The sediment shows distinct laminations and varying thickness of layers throughout the cores. Background deposition is composed of thin layers (events to determine if the OFPA is having an effect on reducing sedimentation rates as a result of extreme magnitude storm events.

  6. Nuclear security in major public events: the XV Pan American Games and the III Para-Pan American Games in Brazil

    Mello, Luiz A. de; Monteiro Filho, Joselio S.; Belem, Lilia M.J.; Torres, Luiz F.B.

    2009-01-01

    The organization of a major public event involving large numbers of spectators and participants, presents important security challenges. Taking this into consideration, the Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN) has been requested, by the National Secretary of Public Security/ Ministry of Justice (SENASP/MJ), by the end of 2006, to participate on the security actions to be implemented in both the XV Pan American Games and III Para Pan American Games. The XV Pan American Games 2007 and the III Para Pan American Games were held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil from 13 to 29 July 2007 and from 12 to 19 August 2007, respectively. Those events had 8700 participants between athletes, coaches and referees from 42 countries. More than 300 competition events were held at 17 different venues and were covered by 4910 professionals from TV, radio and written press. Around 2 million tickets have been sold or distributed and 18,000 volunteers participated on the organization. The participation of CNEN was concentrated on the implementation of specific nuclear and radiological security measures to be applied at those events. This was part of a multi-institutional plan for the security of the Games, coordinated by the National Secretary of Public Security of the Ministry of Justice (SENASP/MJ). The support provided by IAEA under a Cooperation Arrangement with the Brazilian authorities was a key factor for the success of the whole operation. The actions taken and the lessons identified by the Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission related to nuclear and radiological security for the Pan American Games and for the Para Pan American Games are presented. (author)

  7. Female sex work and international sport events - no major changes in demand or supply of paid sex during the 2010 Soccer World Cup: a cross-sectional study

    2012-01-01

    Background Important unanswered questions remain on the impact of international sporting events on the sex industry. Speculation about increased demand and supply of sex work often generates significant attention, but also additional funding for HIV programmes. This study assessed whether changes occurred in the demand and supply of paid sex during the 2010 Soccer World Cup in South Africa. Methods Trained sex worker interviewers conducted face-to-face semi-structured interviews among consenting female sex workers during May-September 2010. Using bivariate analyses we compared supply, demand, sexual risk-taking, and police and health services contact pre-World Cup, to levels during the World Cup and after the event. Results No increases were detected in indicators of sex work supply, including the proportion of sex workers newly arrived in the city ( 92.4% in all phases). Health-care utilisation decreased non-significantly from the pre- to during World Cup period (62.4% to 57.0%; P = 0.075). Across all periods, about thirty percent of participants had interacted with police in the preceding month, two thirds of whom had negative interactions. Conclusions Contrary to public opinion, no major increases were detected in the demand or supply of paid sex during the World Cup. Although the study design employed was unable to select population-based samples, these findings do not support the public concern and media speculation prior to the event, but rather signal a missed opportunity for public health action. Given the media attention on sex work, future sporting events offer strategic opportunities to implement services for sex workers and their clients, especially as health service utilisation might decrease in this period. PMID:22967260

  8. Statistical Study of False Alarms of Geomagnetic Storms

    Leer, Kristoffer; Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Veronig, A.

    . A subset of these halo CMEs did not cause a geomagnetic storm the following four days and have therefore been considered as false alarms. The properties of these events are investigated and discussed here. Their statistics are compared to the geo-effective CMEs. The ability to identify potential false......Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are known to cause geomagnetic storms on Earth. However, not all CMEs will trigger geomagnetic storms, even if they are heading towards the Earth. In this study, front side halo CMEs with speed larger than 500 km/s have been identified from the SOHO LASCO catalogue...

  9. The effects of transboundary air pollution following major events in China on air quality in the U.S.: Evidence from Chinese New Year and sandstorms.

    Ngo, N S; Zhong, N; Bao, X

    2018-04-15

    Transboundary air pollution is a global environmental and public health problem including in the U.S., where pollution emissions from China, the largest emitter of anthropogenic air pollution in the world, can travel across the Pacific Ocean and reach places like California and Oregon. We examine the effects of transboundary air pollution following major events in China, specifically sandstorms, a natural-occurring source of air pollution, and Chinese New Year, a major 7-day holiday, on background air quality in the U.S. We focus on high elevation sites on the west coast between 2000 and 2013. We use regression analysis and a natural experiment to exploit the variation in the timing of these events in China, which are plausibly uncorrelated to other factors that affect air quality in China and the U.S. We find that sandstorms are associated with statistically significant increases in background coarse and fine particulate matter (PM) in the U.S., representing between 16 and 39% of average weekly PM levels. We also find Chinese New Year is associated with modest reductions in background air quality in the U.S., representing between 0.4 and 2.5% of PM levels. Findings are robust to different models and falsification tests. These results suggest that regression analysis could be a powerful tool to complement other, more widely used techniques in the environmental sciences that study this problem. This also has important implications for policymakers, who could track major sandstorms in China and prepare for possible increased foreign pollution emissions in the U.S. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Storm-wave trends in Mexican waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    E. Ojeda

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Thirty-year time series of hindcast wave data were analysed for 10 coastal locations along the eastern Mexican coast to obtain information about storm events occurring in the region, with the goal of examining the possible presence of interannual trends in the number of storm-wave events and their main features (wave height, duration and energy content. The storms were defined according to their significant wave height and duration, and the events were classified as related to either tropical cyclones or Norte events. The occurrence and characteristics of both types of events were analysed independently. There is no statistically significant change in the number of storm-wave events related to Nortes or their characteristics during the study period. However, there is a subtle increase in the number of events related to tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean region and a more evident increase in wave height and energy content of these events.

  11. Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

    Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

    2015-08-01

    Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

  12. Asteroids and Archaean crustal evolution: Tests of possible genetic links between major mantle/crust melting events and clustered extraterrestrial bombardments

    Glikson, A. Y.

    1992-01-01

    Since the oldest intact terrestrial rocks of ca. 4.0 Ga and oldest zircon xenocrysts of ca. 4.3 Ga measured to date overlap with the lunar late heavy bombardment, the early Precambrian record requires close reexamination vis a vis the effects of megaimpacts. The identification of microtektite-bearing horizons containing spinals of chondritic chemistry and Ir anomalies in 3.5-3.4-Ga greenstone belts provides the first direct evidence for large-scale Archaean impacts. The Archaean crustal record contains evidence for several major greenstone-granite-forming episodes where deep upwelling and adiabatic fusion of the mantle was accompanied by contemporaneous crustal anatexis. Isotopic age studies suggest evidence for principal age clusters about 3.5, 3.0, and 2.7 (+/- 0.8) Ga, relics of a ca. 3.8-Ga event, and several less well defined episodes. These peak events were accompanied and followed by protracted thermal fluctuations in intracrustal high-grade metamorphic zones. Interpretations of these events in terms of internal dynamics of the Earth are difficult to reconcile with the thermal behavior of silicate rheologies in a continuously convecting mantle regime. A triggering of these episodes by mantle rebound response to intermittent extraterrestrial asteroid impacts is supported by (1) identification of major Archaean impacts from microtektite and distal ejecta horizons marked by Ir anomalies; (2) geochemical and experimental evidence for mantle upwelling, possibly from levels as deep as the transition zone; and (3) catastrophic adiabatic melting required to generate peridotitic komatites. Episodic differentiation/accretion growth of sial consequent on these events is capable of resolving the volume problem that arises from comparisons between modern continental crust and the estimated sial produced by continuous two-stage mantle melting processes. The volume problem is exacerbated by projected high accretion rates under Archaean geotherms. It is suggested that

  13. Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds

    Streby, Henry M.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Buehler, David A.; Andersen, David E.

    2015-01-01

    Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods. Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle). During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail, and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered. However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods. Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms, perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements, is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses, understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research.

  14. Leonid storm research

    Rietmeijer, Frans; Brosch, Noah; Fonda, Mark

    2000-01-01

    This book will appeal to all researchers that have an interest in the current Leonid showers It contains over forty research papers that present some of the first observational results of the November 1999 Leonid meteor storm, the first storm observed by modern observing techniques The book is a first glimpse of the large amount of information obtained during NASA's Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign and groundbased campaigns throughout the world It provides an excellent overview on the state of meteor shower research for any professional researcher or amateur meteor observer interested in studies of meteors and meteoroids and their relation to comets, the origin of life on Earth, the satellite impact hazard issue, and upper atmosphere studies of neutral atom chemistry, the formation of meteoric debris, persistent trains, airglow, noctilucent clouds, sprites and elves

  15. Dust storm, northern Mexico

    1983-01-01

    This large dust storm along the left side of the photo, covers a large portion of the state of Coahuila, Mexico (27.5N, 102.0E). The look angle of this oblique photo is from the south to the north. In the foreground is the Sierra Madre Oriental in the states Coahuila and Nuevo Leon with the Rio Grande River, Amistad Reservoir and Texas in the background.

  16. Solar storms; Tormentas solares

    Collaboration: Pereira Cuesta, S.; Pereira Pagan, B.

    2016-08-01

    Solar storms begin with an explosion, or solar flare, on the surface of the sun. The X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare reach the Earths orbit minutes later-travelling at light speed. The ionization of upper layers of our atmosphere could cause radio blackouts and satellite navigation errors (GPS). Soon after, a wave of energetic particles, electrons and protons accelerated by the explosion crosses the orbit of the Earth, and can cause real and significant damage. (Author)

  17. LibrarySTORM

    Breüner, Niels; Bech, Tine

    2013-01-01

    Når flere uddannelser samles i en nybygning til Campus C på Ceres grunden i Aarhus, skal der også indrettes et fælles bibliotek. Når der samtidig er midler til at arbejde med brugerdreven innovation, lå det lige for at inddrage de studerende og få deres visioner for fremtidens bibliotek. Der blev...... arrangeret en udviklingsdag, hvor der skulle brainstormes – og projektet blev kaldt LibrarySTORM....

  18. Modeling storm waves

    Benoit, M.; Marcos, F.; Teisson, Ch.

    1999-01-01

    Nuclear power stations located on the coast take the water they use to cool their circuits from the sea. The water intake and discharge devices must be able to operate in all weathers, notably during extreme storms, with waves 10 m high and over. To predict the impact of the waves on the equipment, they are modeled digitally from the moment they form in the middle of the ocean right up to the moment they break on the shore. (authors)

  19. Relation of Serum Adiponectin Levels to Number of Traditional Atherosclerotic Risk Factors and All-Cause Mortality and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (from the Copenhagen City Heart Study)

    Lindberg, Soren; Mogelvang, Rasmus; Pedersen, Sune H

    2013-01-01

    adiponectin has been associated with increased mortality and an increasing number of major adverse CV events (MACE). Because of these conflicting results, the true role of adiponectin remains to be elucidated. In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, we prospectively followed up 5,624 randomly selected men...... and women from the community without CV disease. Plasma adiponectin was measured at the beginning of the study. The median follow-up time was 7.8 years (interquartile range 7.3 to 8.3). The end point was all-cause mortality (n = 801), and the combined end point was MACE, consisting of CV mortality...... or nonfatal myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke (n = 502). High adiponectin was inversely associated with an increasing number of traditional CV risk factors (p...

  20. The effect of major adverse renal cardiovascular event (MARCE) incidence, procedure volume, and unit cost on the hospital savings resulting from contrast media use in inpatient angioplasty.

    Keuffel, Eric; McCullough, Peter A; Todoran, Thomas M; Brilakis, Emmanouil S; Palli, Swetha R; Ryan, Michael P; Gunnarsson, Candace

    2018-04-01

    To determine the net economic impact of switching from low-osmolar contrast media (LOCM) to iso-osmolar contrast media (IOCM; iodixanol) in patients undergoing inpatient coronary or peripheral angioplasty in the United States (US). A budget impact model (BIM) was developed from a hospital perspective. Nationally representative procedural and contrast media prevalence rates, along with MARCE (major adverse renal cardiovascular event) incidence and episode-related cost data were derived from Premier Hospital Data (October 2014 to September 2015). A previously estimated relative risk reduction in MARCE associated with IOCM usage (9.3%) was applied. The higher cost of IOCM was included when calculating the net impact estimates at the aggregate, hospital type, and per hospital levels. One-way (±25%) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses identified the model's most important inputs. Based on weighted analysis, 513,882 US inpatient angioplasties and 35,610 MARCE cases were estimated annually. Switching to an "IOCM only" strategy from a "LOCM only" strategy increases contrast media cost, but prevents 2,900 MARCE events. The annual budget impact was an estimated saving of $30.71 million, aggregated across all US hospitals, $6,316 per hospital, or $60 per procedure. Net savings were maintained across all univariate sensitivity analyses. While MARCE/event-free cost differential was the most important factor driving total net savings for hospitals in the Northeast and West, procedural volume was important in the Midwest and rural locations. Switching to an "IOCM only" strategy from a "LOCM only" approach yields substantial net global savings to hospitals, both at the national level and within hospital sub-groups. Hospital administrators should maintain awareness of the factors that are likely to be more influential for their hospital and recognize that purchasing on the basis of lower contrast media cost may result in higher overall costs for patients undergoing inpatient

  1. Noise storm coordinated observations

    Elgaroey, Oe.; Tlamicha, A.

    1983-01-01

    The usually accepted bipolar model of noise storm centers is irrelevant for the present observations. An alternative model has been proposed in which the different sources of a noise storm center are located in different flux tubes connecting active regions with their surroundings. Radio emission is observed from the wide, descending branch of the flux tubes, opposite to the flaring site. The relation between the sense of circular polarization of the radio emission and the magnetic polarity, has been more precisely defined. The radiation is in the ordinary mode with respect to the underlying large scale photospheric magnetic polarity. Thus the ''irregular'' polarity of noice storm center ''B'' is explained. As regards center ''C'', one should note that although the observed radio emission is polarized in the ordinary mode with respect to the leading spot of region HR 17653, center ''C'' is not situated in flux tubes originating from the leading part of this region according to the proposed model. Rather, the radio sources are located in the wide and descending part of flux tubes connecting a large, quiet area of south magnetic polarity with the following part of the region HR 17653 (of north magnetic polarity). Thus it is the polarity of the extended area which determines the polarization of the radio emission. The observed polarization should result rather from the emission process than from complicated conditions of propagation for the radio waves

  2. [Prediction value of deceleration capacity of rate and GRACE risk score on major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute myocardial infarction].

    Gao, L; Chen, Y D; Shi, Y J; Xue, H; Wang, J L

    2016-07-24

    To investigate the prediction value of deceleration capacity of rate (DC) and GRACE risk score for cardiovascular events in AMI patients. Consecutive AMI patients with sinus rhythm hospitalized in our department during August 2012 to August 2013 were included in this prospective study. 24-hour ECG Holter monitoring was performed within 1 week, and the DC value was analyzed, GRACE risk score was acquired with the application of GRACE risk score calculator. Patients were followed up for more than 1 year and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were obtained. Analysised the Kaplan Meier survival according to DC and GRACE score risk stratification respectively. A total of 157 patients were enrolled in the study (average age: (58.9±12.7)years old). The average follow-up was (20.54±2.85) months. Mortality during follow-up was significantly higher in patients with DC>2.5 compared to patients with DC≤2.5 (Prisk stratification was 0.898 (95%CI 0.840-0.940, Prisk stratification was 0.786 (95%CI 0.714-0.847, Prisk stratification was 0.708 (95%CI 0.652-0.769, Prisk patients than those with intermediate and low risk patients according to DC risk stratification in intermediate and low risk patients by GRACE risk stratification (Prisk stratification is superior to GRACE risk score on outcome assessment in this AMI patient cohort.

  3. Long-term major adverse cardiovascular events and quality of life after coronary angiography in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome.

    Sigurjonsdottir, R; Barywani, S; Albertsson, P; Fu, M

    2016-11-01

    Although the elderly comprise the majority of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients, limited data exist on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and quality of life (QoL). To study MACEs and QoL prospectively in ACS patients >70years referred for coronary angiography. A prospective observational study that included ACS patients >70years undergoing coronary angiography. The outcomes were MACEs and QoL 3years after inclusion. MACEs were defined as death, recurrent ACS, new-onset of heart failure and repeated revascularization by coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). A QoL questionnaire was completed by the patients along with a physical examination and a personal interview at the 3-year follow-up. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify the predictors for MACEs. In total, 138 patients (mean age 78.8±3.8years) with ACS were included in the study. Mean follow-up was 1196±296days. In all, 42% of the patients had MACEs and 25% had post-ACS heart failure. The mortality rate was 11%. After adjusting for significant cardiovascular risk factors, the following factors were significantly associated with MACEs: Age, high-sensitive troponin T (hsTNT), use of diuretics and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Furthermore, the QoL evaluated with SF-36 in survivors from ACS at the end of study was similar to the QoL in an age-matched healthy Swedish population. In this prospective study on elderly ACS patients MACEs still occurred in 42% of the cases (despite low mortality and good QoL), with post-ACS heart failure as the most important event. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Aspirin effect on the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Ghali William A

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Aspirin has been recommended for the prevention of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE, composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and cardiovascular death in diabetic patients without previous cardiovascular disease. However, recent meta-analyses have prompted re-evaluation of this practice. The study objective was to evaluate the relative and absolute benefits and harms of aspirin for the prevention of incident MACE in patients with diabetes. Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on seven studies (N = 11,618 reporting on the use of aspirin for the primary prevention of MACE in patients with diabetes. Two reviewers conducted a systematic search of electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and BIOSIS and hand searched bibliographies and clinical trial registries. Reviewers extracted data in duplicate, evaluated the quality of the trials, and calculated pooled estimates. Results A total of 11,618 participants were included in the analysis. The overall risk ratio (RR for MACE was 0.91 (95% confidence intervals, CI, 0.82-1.00 with little heterogeneity among trials (I2 0.0%. Secondary outcomes of interest included myocardial infarction (RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.66-1.10, stroke (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.64-1.11, cardiovascular death (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.71-1.27, and all-cause mortality (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85-1.06. There were higher rates of hemorrhagic and gastrointestinal events. In absolute terms, these relative risks indicate that for every 10,000 diabetic patients treated with aspirin, 109 MACE may be prevented at the expense of 19 major bleeding events (with the caveat that the relative risk for the latter is not statistically significant. Conclusions The studies reviewed suggest that aspirin reduces the risk of MACE in patients with diabetes without cardiovascular disease, while also causing a trend toward higher rates of bleeding and gastrointestinal complications

  5. Morphological records of storm floods exemplified by the impact of the 1872 Baltic storm on a sandy spit system in south-eastern Denmark

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Bendixen, Mette; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    Beach-ridge systems are important geo-archives providing evidence for past wave climate including catastrophic storm flood events. This study investigates the morphological impacts of the 1872 Baltic storm flood on a beach-ridge system (sandy spit) in south-eastern Denmark and evaluates the frequ...

  6. A population-based longitudinal study of recent stressful life events as risk factors for suicidal behavior in major depressive disorder.

    Wang, Yunqiao; Sareen, Jitender; Afifi, Tracie O; Bolton, Shay-Lee; Johnson, Edward A; Bolton, James M

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the type and number of stressful life events (SLEs) will be associated with suicidal behavior in a 3-year follow-up period in persons with major depressive disorder (MDD). Data came from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), a nationally representative longitudinal survey of mental health in non-institutionalized adults in the United States. The survey consisted of two waves: Wave 1 (2001--2002) and Wave 2 (2004-2005), n = 34,653. Twelve past-year SLEs were assessed at baseline. These SLEs were categorized into the following groups based on previous research: Loss or victimization; Relationship, friendship, or interpersonal stress; Financial stress; and Legal problems. Only respondents with MDD at Wave 1 were included (n = 6,004). Several SLEs were strongly associated with suicide attempts, among which, "serious problems with neighbor, friend, or relative" (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.21; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.41, 3.45) and "major financial crisis, bankruptcy, or unable to pay bills" (AOR = 2.31; 95% CI: 1.45, 3.66) were the most robust predictors of suicide attempts even after adjusting for sociodemographic variables and any anxiety, substance use, or personality disorder. People with MDD who had been exposed to certain SLEs are at elevated risk for future suicide attempts, even after accounting for the demographic factors and psychiatric comorbidity.

  7. Geomagnetic storm effects on GPS based navigation

    P. V. S. Rama Rao

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The energetic events on the sun, solar wind and subsequent effects on the Earth's geomagnetic field and upper atmosphere (ionosphere comprise space weather. Modern navigation systems that use radio-wave signals, reflecting from or propagating through the ionosphere as a means of determining range or distance, are vulnerable to a variety of effects that can degrade the performance of the navigational systems. In particular, the Global Positioning System (GPS that uses a constellation of earth orbiting satellites are affected due to the space weather phenomena.

    Studies made during two successive geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period from 8 to 12 November 2004, have clearly revealed the adverse affects on the GPS range delay as inferred from the Total Electron Content (TEC measurements made from a chain of seven dual frequency GPS receivers installed in the Indian sector. Significant increases in TEC at the Equatorial Ionization anomaly crest region are observed, resulting in increased range delay during the periods of the storm activity. Further, the storm time rapid changes occurring in TEC resulted in a number of phase slips in the GPS signal compared to those on quiet days. These phase slips often result in the loss of lock of the GPS receivers, similar to those that occur during strong(>10 dB L-band scintillation events, adversely affecting the GPS based navigation.

  8. [Thyroid emergencies : Thyroid storm and myxedema coma].

    Spitzweg, C; Reincke, M; Gärtner, R

    2017-10-01

    Thyroid emergencies are rare life-threatening endocrine conditions resulting from either decompensated thyrotoxicosis (thyroid storm) or severe thyroid hormone deficiency (myxedema coma). Both conditions develop out of a long-standing undiagnosed or untreated hyper- or hypothyroidism, respectively, precipitated by an acute stress-associated event, such as infection, trauma, or surgery. Cardinal features of thyroid storm are myasthenia, cardiovascular symptoms, in particular tachycardia, as well as hyperthermia and central nervous system dysfunction. The diagnosis is made based on clinical criteria only as thyroid hormone measurements do not differentiate between thyroid storm and uncomplicated hyperthyroidism. In addition to critical care measures therapy focusses on inhibition of thyroid hormone synthesis and secretion (antithyroid drugs, perchlorate, Lugol's solution, cholestyramine, thyroidectomy) as well as inhibition of thyroid hormone effects in the periphery (β-blocker, glucocorticoids).Cardinal symptoms of myxedema coma are hypothermia, decreased mental status, and hypoventilation with risk of pneumonia and hyponatremia. The diagnosis is also purely based on clinical criteria as measurements of thyroid hormone levels do not differ between uncomplicated severe hypothyroidism and myxedema coma. In addition to substitution of thyroid hormones and glucocorticoids, therapy focusses on critical care measures to treat hypoventilation and hypercapnia, correction of hyponatremia and hypothermia.Survival of both thyroid emergencies can only be optimized by early diagnosis based on clinical criteria and prompt initiation of multimodal therapy including supportive measures and treatment of the precipitating event.

  9. MORSE/STORM: A generalized albedo option for Monte Carlo calculations

    Gomes, I.C.; Stevens, P.N.

    1991-09-01

    The advisability of using the albedo procedure for the Monte Carlo solution of deep penetration shielding problems that have ducts and other penetrations has been investigated. The use of albedo data can dramatically improve the computational efficiency of certain Monte Carlo calculations. However, the accuracy of these results may be unacceptable because of lost information during the albedo event and serious errors in the available differential albedo data. This study was done to evaluate and appropriately modify the MORSE/BREESE package, to develop new methods for generating the required albedo data, and to extend the adjoint capability to the albedo-modified calculations. Major modifications to MORSE/BREESE include an option to save for further use information that would be lost at the albedo event, an option to displace the point of emergence during an albedo event, and an option to use spatially dependent albedo data for both forward and adjoint calculations, which includes the point of emergence as a new random variable to be selected during an albedo event. The theoretical basis for using TORT-generated forward albedo information to produce adjuncton albedos was derived. The MORSE/STORM package was developed to perform both forward and adjoint modes of analysis using spatially dependent albedo data. Results obtained with MORSE/STORM for both forward and adjoint modes were compared with benchmark solutions. Excellent agreement and improved computational efficiency were achieved, demonstrating the full utilization of the albedo option in the MORSE code. 7 refs., 17 figs., 15 tabs

  10. Coronal mass ejections and large geomagnetic storms

    Gosling, J.T.; Bame, S.J.; McComas, D.J.; Phillips, J.L.

    1990-01-01

    Previous work indicates that coronal mass ejection (CME) events in the solar wind at 1 AU can be identified by the presence of a flux of counterstreaming solar wind halo electrons (above about 80 eV). Using this technique to identify CMEs in 1 AU plasma data, the authors find that most large geomagnetic storms during the interval surrounding the last solar maximum (Aug. 1978-Oct. 1982) were associated with Earth-passage of interplanetary disturbances in which the Earth encountered both a shock and the CME driving the shock. However, only about one CME in six encountered by Earth was effective in causing a large geomagnetic storm. Slow CMEs which did not interact strongly with the ambient solar wind ahead were particularly ineffective in a geomagnetic sense

  11. Multi-scale variability of storm Ophelia 2017: The importance of synchronised environmental variables in coastal impact.

    Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek W T

    2018-07-15

    Low frequency, high magnitude storm events can dramatically alter coastlines, helping to relocate large volumes of sediments and changing the configuration of landforms. Increases in the number of intense cyclones occurring in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1970s is evident with more northward tracking patterns developing. This brings added potential risk to coastal environments and infrastructure in northwest Europe and therefore understanding how these high-energy storms impact sandy coasts in particular is important for future management. This study highlights the evolution of Storm (formally Hurricane) Ophelia in October 2017 as it passed up and along the western seaboard of Ireland. The largest ever recorded Hurricane to form in the eastern Atlantic, we describe, using a range of environmental measurements and wave modelling, its track and intensity over its duration whilst over Ireland. The impact on a stretch of sandy coast in NW Ireland during Storm Ophelia, when the winds were at their peak, is examined using terrestrial laser scanning surveys pre- and post-storm to describe local changes of intertidal and dune edge dynamics. During maximum wind conditions (>35 knots) waves no >2m were recorded with an oblique to parallel orientation and coincident with medium to low tide (around 0.8m). Therefore, we demonstrate that anticipated widespread coastal erosion and damage may not always unfold as predicted. In fact, around 6000m 3 of net erosion occurred along the 420m stretch of coastline with maximum differences in beach topographic changes of 0.8m. The majority of the sediment redistribution occurred within the intertidal and lower beach zone with some limited dune trimming in the southern section (10% of the total erosion). Asynchronous high water (tide levels), localised offshore winds as well as coastline orientation relative to the storm winds and waves plays a significant role in reducing coastal erosional impact. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

  12. Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

    2013-01-01

    Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

  13. Characterization of major ripening events during softening in grape: turgor, sugar accumulation, abscisic acid metabolism, colour development, and their relationship with growth.

    Castellarin, Simone D; Gambetta, Gregory A; Wada, Hiroshi; Krasnow, Mark N; Cramer, Grant R; Peterlunger, Enrico; Shackel, Kenneth A; Matthews, Mark A

    2016-02-01

    Along with sugar accumulation and colour development, softening is an important physiological change during the onset of ripening in fruits. In this work, we investigated the relationships among major events during softening in grape (Vitis vinifera L.) by quantifying elasticity in individual berries. In addition, we delayed softening and inhibited sugar accumulation using a mechanical growth-preventing treatment in order to identify processes that are sugar and/or growth dependent. Ripening processes commenced on various days after anthesis, but always at similarly low elasticity and turgor. Much of the softening occurred in the absence of other changes in berry physiology investigated here. Several genes encoding key cell wall-modifying enzymes were not up-regulated until softening was largely completed, suggesting softening may result primarily from decreases in turgor. Similarly, there was no decrease in solute potential, increase in sugar concentration, or colour development until elasticity and turgor were near minimum values, and these processes were inhibited when berry growth was prevented. Increases in abscisic acid occurred early during softening and in the absence of significant expression of the V. vinifera 9-cis-epoxycarotenoid dioxygenases. However, these increases were coincident with decreases in the abscisic acid catabolite diphasic acid, indicating that initial increases in abscisic acid may result from decreases in catabolism and/or exogenous import. These data suggest that softening, decreases in turgor, and increases in abscisic acid represent some of the earliest events during the onset of ripening. Later, physical growth, further increases in abscisic acid, and the accumulation of sugar are integral for colour development. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

  14. Stent parameters predict major adverse clinical events and the response to platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa blockade: findings of the ESPRIT trial.

    Tcheng, James E; Lim, Ing Haan; Srinivasan, Shankar; Jozic, Joseph; Gibson, C Michael; O'Shea, J Conor; Puma, Joseph A; Simon, Daniel I

    2009-02-01

    Only limited data describe relationships between stent parameters (length and diameter), adverse events after percutaneous coronary intervention, and effects of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa blockade by stent parameters. In this post hoc analysis of the 1983 patients receiving a stent in the Enhanced Suppression of the Platelet Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa Receptor with Integrilin Therapy randomized percutaneous coronary intervention trial of eptifibatide versus placebo, rates of the major adverse cardiac event (MACE) end point (death, myocardial infarction, urgent target-vessel revascularization, or thrombotic bailout) at 48 hours and 1 year were correlated with stent parameters and then analyzed by randomization to eptifibatide versus placebo. In the placebo group, MACE increased with number of stents implanted, total stent length (by quartiles of or=30 mm), and total stented vessel area (by quartiles of area or=292 mm(2)). By stent parameters, MACE at 48 hours was reduced in the eptifibatide group at stent lengths of 18 to or=30 mm (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.75; P=0.003), stent diameters of >2.5 to <3.5 mm (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.82; P=0.002), and with 2 stents implanted (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.69; P=0.001). In the placebo group, near-linear relationships were observed between both increasing stent length and increasing stented vessel area and MACE at 48 hours and 1 year (all, P<0.001); these gradients were flattened in the eptifibatide group (P=0.005 for stent length). Stent parameters predict MACE after percutaneous coronary intervention. Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa blockade mitigates much of the hazard of increasing procedural complexity.

  15. High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

    M. G. Donat

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

    The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

  16. Storm Warnings for Cuba

    1994-01-01

    Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet : order@rand.org. al Accesion For "Ni %&’ Storm WarningsDTI’ TAB E03 --- - - -for...reaction leading to an uncontrol- lable burgeoning of private entrepreneurial activity. As one observer 14See Acuerdo del Buro Politico , "Para llevar a...34 10Comisi6n de Relaciones Internacionales, Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, Datos, Reflexiones y Argumentos Sobre la Actual Situaci6n de Cuba, n.p

  17. Tephra and cryptotephra in a 60,000-year-old lacustrine sequence from the Fucino Basin: new insights into the major explosive events in Italy

    Di Roberto, Alessio; Smedile, Alessandra; Del Carlo, Paola; De Martini, Paolo Marco; Iorio, Marina; Petrelli, Maurizio; Pantosti, Daniela; Pinzi, Stefania; Todrani, Alessandro

    2018-03-01

    provide insights into the most recent volcanic activity of Albano maar, allowing us to date the onset of activity at the maar system at ca. 40 ka and to estimate the ages of all four eruptions that made up this eruptive sequence at ca. 37.5 ka (Albano 5), ca. 36.5 ka (Albano 6) and ca. 36 ka (Albano 7), respectively. Our work extends the known dispersal of several major explosive events, suggesting the intensity and magnitude appraisals, and attended risk scenario's need to be revised using improved records of distal fall out.

  18. I-123-mIBG myocardial imaging for assessment of risk for a major cardiac event in heart failure patients: insights from a retrospective European multicenter study

    Agostini, Denis [CHU Cote de Nacre, Caen (France); Verberne, Hein J. [Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Burchert, Wolfgang [Ruhr University Bochum, Institute of Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Heart and Diabetes Center NRW, Bad Oeyenhausen (Germany); Knuuti, Juhani [Turku University Central Hospital, Turku (Finland); Povinec, Pavol [Comenius University School of Medicine, Bratislava (Slovakia); Sambuceti, Gianmario [University of Genova, Genova (Italy); Unlu, Mustafa [Gazi University, Ankara (Turkey); Estorch, Montserrat [Hospital Sant Pau, Barcelona (Spain); Banerjee, Gopa; Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2008-03-15

    Single-center experiences have shown that myocardial meta-iodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) uptake has prognostic value in heart failure (HF) patients. To verify these observations using a rigorous clinical trial methodology, a retrospective review and prospective quantitative reanalysis was performed on a series of cardiac {sup 123}I-mIBG scans acquired during a 10-year period at six centers in Europe. {sup 123}I-mIBG scans obtained on 290 HF patients [(262 with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 50%)] from 1993 to 2002 were reanalyzed using a standardized methodology to determine the heart-to-mediastinum ratio (H/M) on delayed planar images. All image results were verified by three independent reviewers. Major cardiac events [MCEs; cardiac death, cardiac transplant, potentially fatal arrhythmia (including implantable cardioverter-defibrillator discharge)] during 24-month follow-up were confirmed by an adjudication committee. MCEs occurred in 67 patients (26%): mean H/M ratio was 1.51 {+-} 0.30 for the MCE group and 1.97 {+-} 0.54 for the non-MCE group (p < 0.001). Two-year event-free survival using an optimum H/M ratio threshold of 1.75 was 62% for H/M ratio less than 1.75, 95% for H/M ratio greater than or equal to 1.75 (p < 0.0001). Logistic regression showed H/M ratio and LVEF as the only significant predictors of MCE. Using the lower and upper H/M quartiles of 1.45 and 2.17 as high- and very low-risk thresholds, 2-year event-free survival rates were 52% and 98%, respectively. Among patients with LVEF {<=} 35% and H/M {>=} 1.75 (n = 73), there were nine MCEs because of progressive HF and only one because of an arrhythmia. Application of a clinical trial methodology via the retrospective reanalysis of {sup 123}I-mIBG images confirms the previously reported prognostic value of this method in HF patients, including potential identification of a quantitative threshold for low risk for cardiac mortality and potentially fatal ventricular arrhythmias. (orig.)

  19. Urinary Vitamin D Binding Protein and KIM-1 Are Potent New Biomarkers of Major Adverse Renal Events in Patients Undergoing Coronary Angiography.

    Lyubov Chaykovska

    Full Text Available Vitamin-D-binding protein (VDBP is a low molecular weight protein that is filtered through the glomerulus as a 25-(OH vitamin D 3/VDBP complex. In the normal kidney VDBP is reabsorbed and catabolized by proximal tubule epithelial cells reducing the urinary excretion to trace amounts. Acute tubular injury is expected to result in urinary VDBP loss. The purpose of our study was to explore the potential role of urinary VDBP as a biomarker of an acute renal damage.We included 314 patients with diabetes mellitus or mild renal impairment undergoing coronary angiography and collected blood and urine before and 24 hours after the CM application. Patients were followed for 90 days for the composite endpoint major adverse renal events (MARE: need for dialysis, doubling of serum creatinine after 90 days, unplanned emergency rehospitalization or death.Increased urine VDBP concentration 24 hours after contrast media exposure was predictive for dialysis need (no dialysis: 113.06 ± 299.61 ng/ml, n = 303; need for dialysis: 613.07 ± 700.45 ng/ml, n = 11, Mean ± SD, p<0.001, death (no death during follow-up: 121.41 ± 324.45 ng/ml, n = 306; death during follow-up: 522.01 ± 521.86 ng/ml, n = 8; Mean ± SD, p<0.003 and MARE (no MARE: 112.08 ± 302.00 ng/ml, n = 298; MARE: 506.16 ± 624.61 ng/ml, n = 16, Mean ± SD, p<0.001 during the follow-up of 90 days after contrast media exposure. Correction of urine VDBP concentrations for creatinine excretion confirmed its predictive value and was consistent with increased levels of urinary Kidney Injury Molecule-1 (KIM-1 and baseline plasma creatinine in patients with above mentioned complications. The impact of urinary VDBP and KIM-1 on MARE was independent of known CIN risk factors such as anemia, preexisting renal failure, preexisting heart failure, and diabetes.Urinary VDBP is a promising novel biomarker of major contrast induced nephropathy-associated events 90 days after contrast media exposure.

  20. Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

    Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

    2012-12-30

    Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The intense magnetic storm of December 19, 1980: Observations at L = 4

    Bering, E.A. III; Benbrook, J.R.; Haacke, R.; Dudeney, J.R.; Lanzerotti, L.J.; MacLennan, C.G.; Rosenberg, T.J.

    1991-01-01

    The intense magnetic storm of December 19, 1980 occurred during a major rocket and balloon geophysical research campaign at Siple Station, Antarctica. A balloon flight measuring the electric field and bremsstrahlung X ray flux was conducted during the main phase of the storm. The balloon data and associated ground-based data from around the world contain several lines of evidence which indicate that the dayside auroral oval expanded to an invariant latitude ≤ 59 degree during the storm. Evidence for this conclusion includes (1) the pattern of ground-based magnetic field and ionospheric electric field perturbations; (2) a substantial departure from the normal diurnal curve of the vertical component of the electric field in the stratosphere; and, (3) identical, relatively rapid equatorward motion of regions of electron precipitation, observed or inferred to occur, simultaneously at three L∼4 stations: Siple, Halley Bay and SANAE, separated by several hours in local time across the dayside. The absence of electron precipitation at Siple after this equatorward motion is an indication that the polar cap had expanded to include Siple during this interval. The power spectra of the magnetic field fluctuations at ULF observed at Siple and in a conjugate latitude chain of magnetometers were consistent with the presence of the dayside auroral oval in the near vicinity of Siple and with the presence of a major magnetospheric boundary slightly equatorward of ∼ 59 degree. The stratospheric electric field measured during the recovery phase was very large for this latitude for a period of several hours. This observation suggests that a subauroral latitude ion drift event of unusual intensity and duration accompanied this storm

  2. Coding of adverse events of suicidality in clinical study reports of duloxetine for the treatment of major depressive disorder: descriptive study

    Maund, Emma; Tendal, Britta; Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn; Lundh, Andreas; Gøtzsche, Peter C

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the effects of coding and coding conventions on summaries and tabulations of adverse events data on suicidality within clinical study reports. Design Systematic electronic search for adverse events of suicidality in tables, narratives, and listings of adverse events in individual patients within clinical study reports. Where possible, for each event we extracted the original term reported by the investigator, the term as coded by the medical coding dictionary, medical codi...

  3. Resting heart rate associates with one-year risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome after percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Wang, Shao-Li; Wang, Cheng-Long; Wang, Pei-Li; Xu, Hao; Du, Jian-Peng; Zhang, Da-Wu; Gao, Zhu-Ye; Zhang, Lei; Fu, Chang-Geng; Chen, Ke-Ji; Shi, Da-Zhuo

    2016-03-01

    The study was to access the association between resting heart rate (RHR) and one-year risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients with ACS after PCI (n = 808) were prospectively followed-up for MACE. RHR was obtained from electrocardiogram. MACE was defined as a composite of cardiac death, nonfatal recurrent myocardial infarction, ischemic-driven revascularization, and ischemic stroke. The association between RHR and one-year risk of MACE was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression model. Compared with patients with RHR >76 bpm, the adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) was 0.51 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.23-1.14; P = 0.100) for patients with RHR 76 bpm were at higher risk of MACE during one-year follow-up compared with patients with RHR 61-76 bpm. An elevated RHR ≥ 61 bpm was associated with increased risk of one-year MACE in ACS patients. © 2015 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.

  4. Increased long-term risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with carbon monoxide poisoning: A population-based study in Taiwan.

    Chung-Shun Wong

    Full Text Available Carbon monoxide (CO poisoning may cause toxicity to the cardiovascular system. However, the association between CO poisoning and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE remains unestablished. We investigated the incidence of MACE after CO poisoning in Taiwan and evaluated whether CO-poisoned individuals had a higher risk of MACE than did the general population.Using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD during 2005-2013, a nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted among patients who experienced CO poisoning between 2005 and 2013. CO poisoning was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The study cohort comprised patients with CO poisoning between 2005 and 2010 (N = 13,939. Each patient was matched according to age, sex and index date with four randomly selected controls from the comparison cohort (N = 55,756. All patients were followed from the study date until MACE development, death, or the end of 2013. The hazard ratios for MACE were compared between the two cohorts by using Cox proportional hazards regressions analyses.Incident cases of MACE were identified from the NHIRD. After adjustment for potential confounders, the study cohort was independently associated with a higher MACE risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.83-2.18.This population-based cohort study indicated that patients with CO poisoning have a higher risk of MACE than do individuals without CO poisoning.

  5. Role of neutral wind and storm time electric fields inferred from the storm time ionization distribution at low latitudes: in-situ measurements by Indian satellite SROSS-C2

    Subrahmanyam , P.; Jain , A. R.; Singh , L.; Garg , S. C.

    2005-01-01

    Recently, there has been a renewal of interest in the study of the effects of solar weather events on the ionization redistribution and irregularity generation. The observed changes at low and equatorial latitudes are rather complex and are noted to be a function of location, the time of the storm onset and its intensity, and various other characteristics of the geomagnetic storms triggered by solar weather events. At these latitudes, the effects of geomagnetic storms are basically due to (a)...

  6. Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

    Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

    2017-09-01

    In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

  7. Adverse outcomes of anticoagulant use among hospitalized patients with chronic kidney disease: a comparison of the rates of major bleeding events between unfractionated heparin and enoxaparin.

    Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation therapy is usually required in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD for treatment or prevention of thromboembolic diseases. However, this benefit could easily be offset by the risk of bleeding. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of adverse outcomes of anticoagulants in hospitalized patients with CKD, and to compare the rates of major bleeding events between the unfractionated heparin (UFH and enoxaparin users. METHODS: One year prospective observational study was conducted in patients with CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR, 10-59 ml/min/1.73 m(2 who were admitted to the renal unit of Dubai Hospital. Propensity scores for the use of anticoagulants, estimated for each of the 488 patients, were used to identify a cohort of 117 pairs of patients. Cox regression method was used to estimate association between anticoagulant use and adverse outcomes. RESULTS: Major bleeding occurred in 1 in 3 patients who received anticoagulation during hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR], 4.61 [95% confidence interval [CI], 2.05-10.35]. Compared with enoxaparin users, patients who received anticoagulation with unfractionated heparin had a lower mean [SD] serum level of platelet counts (139.95 [113] × 10(3/µL vs 205.56 [123] × 10(3/µL; P<0.001, and had a higher risk of major bleeding (HR, 4.79 [95% CI, 1.85-12.36]. Furthermore, compared with those who did not receive anticoagulants, patients who did had a higher in-hospital mortality (HR, 2.54 [95% CI, 1.03-6.25]; longer length of hospitalization (HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.01-1.06]; and higher hospital readmission at 30 days (HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.10-2.91]. CONCLUSIONS: Anticoagulation among hospitalized patients with CKD was significantly associated with an increased risk of bleeding and in-hospital mortality. Hence, intensive monitoring and preventive measures such as laboratory monitoring and/or dose adjustment are warranted.

  8. Relationship between substorms and storms

    Kamide, Y.

    1980-01-01

    In an attempt to deduce a plausible working model of the relationship between magnetospheric substorms and storms, recent relevant studies of various processes occurring during disturbed periods are integrated along with some theoretical suggestions. It has been shown that the main phase of geomagnetic storms is associated with the successive occurrence of intense substorms and with the sustained southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). However, these relations are only qualitatively understood, and thus basic questions remain unanswered involving the hypothesis whether a magnetic storm is a non-linear (or linear) superposition of intense substorms, each of which constitutes an elementary storm, or the main phase of magnetic storms occurs as a result of the intense southward IMF which enhances magnetospheric convection and increases occurrence probability of substorms. (Auth.)

  9. Thyroid storm: an updated review.

    Chiha, Maguy; Samarasinghe, Shanika; Kabaker, Adam S

    2015-03-01

    Thyroid storm, an endocrine emergency first described in 1926, remains a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. No laboratory abnormalities are specific to thyroid storm, and the available scoring system is based on the clinical criteria. The exact mechanisms underlying the development of thyroid storm from uncomplicated hyperthyroidism are not well understood. A heightened response to thyroid hormone is often incriminated along with increased or abrupt availability of free hormones. Patients exhibit exaggerated signs and symptoms of hyperthyroidism and varying degrees of organ decompensation. Treatment should be initiated promptly targeting all steps of thyroid hormone formation, release, and action. Patients who fail medical therapy should be treated with therapeutic plasma exchange or thyroidectomy. The mortality of thyroid storm is currently reported at 10%. Patients who have survived thyroid storm should receive definite therapy for their underlying hyperthyroidism to avoid any recurrence of this potentially fatal condition. © The Author(s) 2013.

  10. Multivariate return periods of sea storms for coastal erosion risk assessment

    S. Corbella

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The erosion of a beach depends on various storm characteristics. Ideally, the risk associated with a storm would be described by a single multivariate return period that is also representative of the erosion risk, i.e. a 100 yr multivariate storm return period would cause a 100 yr erosion return period. Unfortunately, a specific probability level may be associated with numerous combinations of storm characteristics. These combinations, despite having the same multivariate probability, may cause very different erosion outcomes. This paper explores this ambiguity problem in the context of copula based multivariate return periods and using a case study at Durban on the east coast of South Africa. Simulations were used to correlate multivariate return periods of historical events to return periods of estimated storm induced erosion volumes. In addition, the relationship of the most-likely design event (Salvadori et al., 2011 to coastal erosion was investigated. It was found that the multivariate return periods for wave height and duration had the highest correlation to erosion return periods. The most-likely design event was found to be an inadequate design method in its current form. We explore the inclusion of conditions based on the physical realizability of wave events and the use of multivariate linear regression to relate storm parameters to erosion computed from a process based model. Establishing a link between storm statistics and erosion consequences can resolve the ambiguity between multivariate storm return periods and associated erosion return periods.

  11. Watershed Evaluation and Habitat Response to Recent Storms : Annual Report for 1998.

    Rhodes, Jonathan J.; Huntington, Charles W.

    1999-01-01

    Large and powerful storm systems moved through the Pacific Northwest during the wet season of 1995-96, triggering widespread flooding, mass erosion, and, possibly altering salmon habitats in affected watersheds. This project study was initiated to assess whether watershed conditions are causing damage, triggered by storm events, to salmon habitat on public lands in the Snake River basin.

  12. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    Butler, T.; Altaf, Muhammad; Dawson, C.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Luo, X.; Mayo, T.

    2012-01-01

    levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge

  13. Watershed evaluation and habitat response to recent storms : annual report for 1998; ANNUAL

    Huntington, Charles W.; Rhodes, Jonathan J.

    1999-01-01

    Large and powerful storm systems moved through the Pacific Northwest during the wet season of 1995-96, triggering widespread flooding, mass erosion, and, possibly altering salmon habitats in affected watersheds. This project study was initiated to assess whether watershed conditions are causing damage, triggered by storm events, to salmon habitat on public lands in the Snake River basin

  14. Characterization of storm flow dynamics of headwater streams in the South Carolina lower coastal plain

    Thomas H. Epps; Daniel R. Hitchcock; Anand D. Jayakaran; Drake R. Loflin; Thomas M. Williams; Devendra M. Amatya

    2013-01-01

    Hydrologic monitoring was conducted in two first-order lower coastal plain watersheds in South Carolina, United States, a region with increasing growth and land use change. Storm events over a three-year period were analyzed for direct runoff coefficients (ROC) and the total storm response (TSR) as percent rainfall. ROC calculations utilized an empirical hydrograph...

  15. Syntax Score and Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Patients with Suspected Coronary Artery Disease: Results from a Cohort Study in a University-Affiliated Hospital in Southern Brazil.

    Fuchs, Felipe C; Ribeiro, Jorge P; Fuchs, Flávio D; Wainstein, Marco V; Bergoli, Luis C; Wainstein, Rodrigo V; Zen, Vanessa; Kerkhoff, Alessandra C; Moreira, Leila B; Fuchs, Sandra C

    2016-09-01

    The importance of coronary anatomy in predicting cardiovascular events is well known. The use of traditional anatomical scores in routine angiography, however, has not been incorporated to clinical practice. SYNTAX score (SXscore) is a scoring system that estimates the anatomical extent of coronary artery disease (CAD). Its ability to predict outcomes based on a baseline diagnostic angiography has not been tested to date. To evaluate the performance of the SXscore in predicting major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients referred for diagnostic angiography. Prospective cohort of 895 patients with suspected CAD referred for elective diagnostic coronary angiography from 2008 to 2011, at a university-affiliated hospital in Brazil. They had their SXscores calculated and were stratified in three categories: no significant CAD (n = 495), SXscoreLOW-INTERMEDIATE: prospectiva de 895 pacientes com suspeita de DAC encaminhados para cineangiocoronariografia diagnóstica eletiva de 2008 a 2011, em hospital universitário no Brasil. Os pacientes tiveram seus SXescores calculados e foram estratificados em três categorias: 'sem DAC significativa' (n = 495); SXescoreBAIXO-INTERMEDIÁRIO: < 23 (n = 346); e SXescoreALTO: ≥ 23 (n = 54). O desfecho primário foi composto de morte cardíaca, infarto do miocárdio e revascularização tardia. Os desfechos secundários foram MACE e morte por todas as causas. Em média, os pacientes foram acompanhados por 1,8 ± 1,4 anos. Desfecho primário ocorreu em 2,2%, 15,3% e 20,4% nos grupos 'sem DAC significativa', SXescoreBAIXO-INTERMEDIÁRIO e SXescoreALTO, respectivamente (p < 0,001). Morte por todas as causas foi significativamente mais frequente no grupo de SXescoreALTO comparado ao grupo 'sem DAC significativa', 16,7% e 3,8% (p < 0,001), respectivamente. Após ajuste para fatores de confusão, todos os desfechos permaneceram associados com o SXescore. O SXescore prediz independentemente MACE em pacientes submetidos a

  16. Role of Low Endothelial Shear Stress and Plaque Characteristics in the Prediction of Nonculprit Major Adverse Cardiac Events: The PROSPECT Study.

    Stone, Peter H; Maehara, Akiko; Coskun, Ahmet Umit; Maynard, Charles C; Zaromytidou, Marina; Siasos, Gerasimos; Andreou, Ioannis; Fotiadis, Dimitris; Stefanou, Kostas; Papafaklis, Michail; Michalis, Lampros; Lansky, Alexandra J; Mintz, Gary S; Serruys, Patrick W; Feldman, Charles L; Stone, Gregg W

    2018-03-01

    This study sought to determine whether low endothelial shear stress (ESS) adds independent prognostication for future major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in coronary lesions in patients with high-risk acute coronary syndrome (ACS) from the United States and Europe. Low ESS is a proinflammatory, proatherogenic stimulus associated with coronary plaque development, progression, and destabilization in human-like animal models and in humans. Previous natural history studies including baseline ESS characterization investigated low-risk patients. In the PROSPECT (Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree) study, 697 patients with ACS underwent 3-vessel intracoronary imaging. Independent predictors of MACE attributable to untreated nonculprit (nc) coronary lesions during 3.4-year follow-up were large plaque burden (PB), small minimum lumen area (MLA), and thin-cap fibroatheroma (TCFA) morphology. In this analysis, baseline ESS of nc lesions leading to new MACE (nc-MACE lesions) and randomly selected control nc lesions without MACE (nc-non-MACE lesions) were calculated. A propensity score for ESS was constructed for each lesion, and the relationship between ESS and subsequent nc-MACE was examined. A total of 145 lesions were analyzed in 97 patients: 23 nc-MACE lesions (13 TCFAs, 10 thick-cap fibroatheromas [ThCFAs]), and 122 nc-non-MACE lesions (63 TCFAs, 59 ThCFAs). Low local ESS (<1.3 Pa) was strongly associated with subsequent nc-MACE compared with physiological/high ESS (≥1.3 Pa) (23 of 101 [22.8%]) versus (0 of 44 [0%]). In propensity-adjusted Cox regression, low ESS was strongly associated with MACE (hazard ratio: 4.34; 95% confidence interval: 1.89 to 10.00; p < 0.001). Categorizing plaques by anatomic risk (high risk: ≥2 high-risk characteristics PB ≥70%, MLA ≤4 mm 2 , or TCFA), high anatomic risk, and low ESS were prognostically synergistic: 3-year nc-MACE rates were 52.1% versus 14.4% versus 0.0% in high

  17. Effects of continuous positive airway pressure on anxiety, depression, and major cardiac and cerebro-vascular events in obstructive sleep apnea patients with and without coronary artery disease.

    Lee, Ming-Chung; Shen, Yu-Chih; Wang, Ji-Hung; Li, Yu-Ying; Li, Tzu-Hsien; Chang, En-Ting; Wang, Hsiu-Mei

    2017-01-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with bad cardiovascular outcomes and a high prevalence of anxiety and depression. This study investigated the effects of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) on the severity of anxiety and depression in OSA patients with or without coronary artery disease (CAD) and on the rate of cardio- and cerebro-vascular events in those with OSA and CAD. This prospective study included patients with moderate-to-severe OSA, with or without a recent diagnosis of CAD; all were started on CPAP therapy. Patients completed the Chinese versions of the Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) and Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) at baseline and after 6-month follow-up. The occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) was assessed every 3 months up to 1 year. BAI scores decreased from 8.5 ± 8.4 at baseline to 5.4 ± 6.9 at 6 months in CPAP-compliant OSA patients without CAD ( P < 0.05). BAI scores also decreased from 20.7 ± 14.9 to 16.1 ± 14.5 in CPAP-compliant OSA patients with CAD. BDI-II scores decreased in CPAP-compliant OSA patients without CAD (from 11.1 ± 10.7 at baseline to 6.6 ± 9.5 at 6 months) and in CPAP-compliant OSA patients with CAD (from 20.4 ± 14.3 to 15.9 ± 7.3). In addition, there was a large effect size (ES) of BAI and BDI in 6-month CPAP treatment of OSA patients with CAD and a large ES in those with OSA under CPAP treatment. In OSA patients with CAD, the occurrence of MACCE was significantly lower in CPAP-compliant patients than that in CPAP noncompliant patients (11% in CPAP compliant and 50% in noncompliant; P < 0.05). CPAP improved anxiety and depression in OSA patients regardless of CAD. In OSA patients with CAD, CPAP-compliant patients had a lower 1-year rate of MACCE than CPAP-noncompliant patients.

  18. Enhancing the 'real world' prediction of cardiovascular events and major bleeding with the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores using multiple biomarkers.

    Roldán, Vanessa; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Shantsila, Alena; García-Fernández, Amaya; Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Vilchez, Juan Antonio; Romera, Marta; Valdés, Mariano; Vicente, Vicente; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2018-02-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF)-European guidelines suggest the use of biomarkers to stratify patients for stroke and bleeding risks. We investigated if a multibiomarker strategy improved the predictive performance of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED in anticoagulated AF patients. We included consecutive patients stabilized for six months on vitamin K antagonists (INRs 2.0-3.0). High sensitivity troponin T, NT-proBNP, interleukin-6, von Willebrand factor concentrations and glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; using MDRD-4 formula) were quantified at baseline. Time in therapeutic range (TTR) was recorded at six months after inclusion. Patients were follow-up during a median of 2375 (IQR 1564-2887) days and all adverse events were recorded. In 1361 patients, adding four blood biomarkers, TTR and MDRD-eGFR, the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc increased significantly by c-index (0.63 vs. 0.65; p = .030) and IDI (0.85%; p originals scores. Addition of biomarkers enhanced the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED, although the overall improvement was modest and the added predictive advantage over original scores was marginal. Key Messages Recent atrial fibrillation (AF)-European guidelines for the first time suggest the use of biomarkers to stratify patients for stroke and bleeding risks, but their usefulness in real world for risk stratification is still questionable. In this cohort study involving 1361 AF patients optimally anticoagulated with vitamin K antagonists, adding high sensitivity troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, interleukin 6, von Willebrand factor, glomerular filtration rate (by the MDRD-4 formula) and time in therapeutic range, increased the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc for cardiovascular events, but not the predictive value of HAS-BLED for major bleeding. Reclassification analyses did not show improvement adding multiple biomarkers. Despite the improvement observed, the added predictive advantage is marginal and

  19. Criteria of interplanetary parameters causing intense magnetic storms (Dsub(st) < -100 nT)

    Gonzalez, W.D.; Tsurutani, B.T.

    1987-01-01

    Ten intense magnetic storms (Dsub(st) 5 mV m -1 , that last for intervals > 3 h. Because we find a one-to-one relationship between these interplanetary events and intense storms, we suggest that these criteria can, in the future, be used as predictors of intense storms by an interplanetary monitor such as ISEE-3. The close proximity of the Bsub(z) events and magnetic storms to the onset of high speed streams or density enhancement events is in sharp contrast to interplanetary Alfven waves and HILDCAA events previously reported and thus the two interplanetary features and corresponding geomagnetic responses can be thought of as being complementary in nature. An examination of opposite polarity (northward) Bsub(z) events with the same criteria shows that their occurrence is similar both in number as well as in their relationship to interplanetary disturbances, and that they lead to low levels of geomagnetic activity. (author)

  20. Dust Storms in North China in 2002: A Case Study of the Low Frequency Oscillation

    2007-01-01

    The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Circumpolar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere on a 30-60-day oscillation, with a weak Circumpolar Vortex tending to deepen the Aleutian Low which may be helpful for the generation of dust storm events.The possible mechanism behind this is the inter-hemispheric interaction of the mean meridional circulation,with the major variability over East Asia. The zonal mean westerly wind at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the upper level troposphere may lead that of the Northern Hemisphere, which then impacts the local circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the low frequency oscillation teleconnection is one possible linkage in the coupling between the Southern Hemisphere circulation and dust events over North China. However, the interannual variation of the low frequency oscillation is unclear.

  1. The Analysis of the Properties of Super Solar Proton Events and the Associated Phenomena

    Cheng, L. B.; Le, G. M.; Lu, Y. P.; Chen, M. H.; Li, P.; Yin, Z. Q.

    2014-05-01

    The solar flare, the propagation speed of shock driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) from the sun to the Earth, the source longitudes and Carrington longitudes, and the geomagnetic storms associated with each super solar proton event with the peak flux equal to or exceeding 10000 pfu have been investigated. The analysis results show that the source longitudes of super solar proton events ranged from E30° to W75°. The Carrington longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the two longitude bands, 130°˜220° and 260°˜320°, respectively. All super solar proton events were accompanied by major solar flares and fast CMEs. The averaged speeds of shocks propagated from the sun to the Earth were greater than 1200 km/s. Eight super solar proton events were followed by major geomagnetic storms (Dst≤-100 nT). One super solar proton event was followed by a geomagnetic storm with Dst=-96 nT.

  2. Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

    Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

    2018-04-01

    Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

  3. 5 A study analysing the diagnostic performance of ECG interpretation for 30-day major