WorldWideScience

Sample records for macroeconomic variables world

  1. INTERACTION OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES WITH STOCK PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALİ ÖZER

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to determine whether there is a relationship between ISE 100 Index and some macroeconomic variables by using monthly data of January 1996 – December 2009. ISE 100 Index was used as dependent variable and interest rates, money supply, foreign trade equilibrium, industrial production index, gold prices, exchange rates, consumer price index were used as independent variables. Least squares estimation method, Johansen-Jeselius cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition results produced by VEC model were used in the study. These analysis show that there is a long run relationship between some macroeconomic variables and stock prices.

  2. Periodic integration in quarterly UK macroeconomic variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); G. Romijn

    1993-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents empirical evidence on the seasonal patterns in several UK macroeconomic variables, additional to related evidence reported in Osborn (International Journal of Forecasting (1990), 6, 327–336). The method used is a test procedure for seasonal unit roots that allows

  3. Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market: US Review

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    Martin Sirucek

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This focus of this paper are the effect, implication, impact andrealtionship between selected macroeconomic variables andwider US indices S&P 500 and industrial Dow Jones IndustrialAverage (DJIA. I Consider inflation, interest rates, moneysupply, producer price index, industrial production index, oilprice and unemployment and their impact on selected stockindices in the USA between 1999 and 2012. The hypotesis of thispaper is, that between selected macroeconomic variables, namelyproducer price index, industrial production index, oil price andDow Jones index is strongly relationship than between thesefactors and S&P 500. The paper is organizing as follows. Firstsection reviews the related literature. In section two are materialsand methods which are use explained. Section 3 provides theempirical results and the last part presents the conclusions.

  4. Causality between Malaysian Islamic Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables

    OpenAIRE

    Naseri, Marjan; Masih, Mansur

    2013-01-01

    This paper makes an attempt to analyse the causality between Islamic stock market and three macroeconomic variables in the case of Malaysia. Although there are numerous studies investigating relationship between conventional stock market and macroeconomic fundamentals, there is a certain gap in the literature pertaining to the relationship between Islamic indices and macroeconomic variables which are becoming an interesting area of research due to fast growing force of Islamic finance. Thus, ...

  5. Macroeconomic narratives in a world of crises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urhammer, Emil; Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    Since the financial crisis in 2008, a series of publications on macroeconomic responses to the compound crises of the economy and the environment have emerged. Under labels such as green new deal, green growth and the great transition, attempts at offering coherent responses to the crises have been...

  6. The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and ISE Industry Index

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    Ahmet Ozcan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE industry index is examined. Over the past years, numerous studies have analyzed these relationships and the different results obtained from these studies have motivated further research. The relationship between stock exchange index and macroeconomic variables has been well documented for the developed markets. However, there are few studies regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock exchange index for the developing markets. Thus, this paper seeks to address the question of whether macroeconomic variables have a significant relationship with ISE industry index using monthly data for the period from 2003 to 2010. The selected macroeconomic variables for the study include interest rates, consumer price index, money supply, exchange rate, gold prices, oil prices, current account deficit and export volume. The Johansen’s cointegration test is utilized to determine the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on ISE industry index. The result of the Johansen’s cointegration shows that macroeconomic variables exhibit a long run equilibrium relationship with the ISE industry index.

  7. A Polynomial Term Structure Model with Macroeconomic Variables

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    José Valentim Vicente

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, a myriad of factor models including macroeconomic variables have been proposed to analyze the yield curve. We present an alternative factor model where term structure movements are captured by Legendre polynomials mimicking the statistical factor movements identified by Litterman e Scheinkmam (1991. We estimate the model with Brazilian Foreign Exchange Coupon data, adopting a Kalman filter, under two versions: the first uses only latent factors and the second includes macroeconomic variables. We study its ability to predict out-of-sample term structure movements, when compared to a random walk. We also discuss results on the impulse response function of macroeconomic variables.

  8. Macroeconomics Variables and the Stock Market : The Case of Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Yelyubayev, Talgat

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the Russian stock market. Following macroeconomic variables are used: industrial production, consumer price index, discount rate, exchange rate and oil prices. Index of the MICEX stock exchange is chosen to represent the Russian market. Monthly time series data of mentioned variables are used and time span covers September 1997 to April 2011 period. Empirical analysis consists of applying Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF...

  9. The relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Wei Su

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to provide evidences on the relationship betweenRenminbi (RMB exchange rate and macroeconomic variables in China, as well asguidelines for reform of RMB exchange rate regime. The long-run equilibriumrelationship between RMB exchange rate and macroeconomic variables of Chinais examined by applying the non-parametric rank tests proposed by Breitung.Furthermore, this study uses the threshold error-correction model (TECM todetect the nonlinear casual relationship between RMB exchange rate andmacroeconomic variables that are nonlinear forms. The results show that RMBexchange rate and macroeconomic variables have nonlinear relationship witheach other. In the long run, these results demonstrate solid evidence that RMBexchange rate and macroeconomic variables support the hypothesis of anasymmetrical error-correction process in China. Our results have important policyimplications for Chinese government under study.

  10. world system theory and keynesian macroeconomics

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrateur

    level which taps cheap labour on the world labour market through devaluation ...... possibility of labour expressing certain demands, as did demographic catastrophes ...... from one activity to another due to the segmentation of labour markets.

  11. The Relationship between Housing Finance and Macroeconomics Variables in Malaysia

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    Binti Mohd Shukor Nur Baizura

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Housing finance is one of the factors that contribute in the overall economy growth of the country. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship of housing finance variable and the macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. By adopting time series technique of Vector Auto regression (VAR and Impulse Response to determine the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic and housing finance variable. The cointegration result shows that there exists a long run relationship between the macroeconomic variable and housing finance variable. The finding from impulse response function indicates that Gross Domestic Product (GDP response positively to the Primary Mortgage Market (PMM, which shows that during the good economy there are more housing loan extends by the banking institution. Meanwhile, interest rate response negatively to Secondary Mortgage Market (SMM, which implies that during the financial crisis, more housing loan sold to the Secondary Mortgage Market as one of the measure by the government to increase liquidity in banking institutions. As a conclusion, there is presence of relationship between the variable which change in one variable will affect the other variable in the long run.

  12. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

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    Fabiano Mello da Silva

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI, industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa. The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988 causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988 long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  13. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  14. Importance of the macroeconomic variables for variance prediction: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Hou, Ai Jun; Javed, Farrukh

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long-term compone......This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long...

  15. Scaling of Growth Rate Volatility for Six Macroeconomic Variables

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    Boris Podobnik

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We study the annual growth rates of six macroeconomic variables: public debt, public health expenditures, exports of goods, government consumption expenditures, total exports of goods and services, and total imports of goods and services. For each variable, we find (i that the distribution of the growth rate residuals approximately follows a double exponential (Laplace distribution and (ii that the standard deviation of growth rate residuals scales according to the size of the variable as a power law, with a scaling exponent similar to the scaling exponent found for GDP [Economics Letters 60, 335 (1998]. We hypothesise that the volatility scaling we find for these GDP constituents causes the volatility scaling found in GDP data.

  16. Macroeconomic Dynamics in Russia During the First World War

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    Cheremisinov Georgiy

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The trajectory and quality of economic development of a country depend on the scale of the public entrepreneurship. The key parameters of macroeconomic dynamics are represented by the ratio between consumption and accumulation (saving in the national income, the regulation of centralized withdrawal of economic resources and the nature of their investment or expenditure. Theoretical analysis. The First World War had been changing the course of economic processes in Russia since 1914 till 1918. The funds were raised for ensuring the defense industry and supplying the troops. The incomes of population and enterprises were decreasing. The capital goods and trade ties undergone destruction processes. The besieged state turned to reducing reproduction of the gross national product. The military situation and extraordinary redistribution of resources had strengthened the economic status of the country. The funds spent on the maintenance and equipment of the army depended on the methods of resource allocation. Along with the war losses, the methods of economic regulation also contributed to the degradation of Russian economy. The devastation was caused by the armed struggle of state power for their interests and purposeful economic policy of successive governments. Conclusion. During the First World War the Russian economy had become extreme. Public withdrawal of economic resources and the impact on the economy was growing up until its overall governmentalization and transformation of the market economy into the subsistence one. The reformation processes supported each other mutually, strengthened the effect of general trends and had irreversible cumulative character. The mobilization model of the Russian economy was formed.

  17. On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables

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    Srinivasan Palamalai

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate (IR, and exchange rate (EXR in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, IR, and EXR during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to EXR, IR to price level, and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and EXR, price level and IR, and IR and EXR in the pre-crisis era, respectively. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, EXR, and IR during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and EXR, IR and price level, and IR and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

  18. Volatility Nexus Between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in Bangladesh: an Extended GARCH Approach

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    Hasan Md. Abu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the volatility of the Bangladesh stock market returns in response to the volatility of the macroeconomic variables employing monthly data of general index of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE and four macroeconomic variables (Call Money Rate, Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and SENSEX of Bombay Stock Exchange from January 2001 to December 2015. The results of GARCHS models reveal that the volatility of DSE return is significantly guided by the volatility of macroeconomic variables, such as, exchange rate and SENSEX. Specifically, volatility of the DSE is expected to 19% increase by 1% increase of exchange rate. Moreover, the volatility of the Bangladesh stock market returns is expected to dampen down by 2% with an increase in the volatility of Indian stock market of 1%. Thus, we can comment that adding exchange rate or stock returns of India in the GARCH model provides significant knowledge about the behaviour of the DSE volatility.

  19. Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey

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    Taylan Taner Doğan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the response of unemployment to selective macroeconomics shocks over period of 2000:Q1-2010:Q1. It is found that positive shocks to growth, growth in export and and inflation reduce unemployment. On the other hand, shocks to exchange rate, interbank interest rate and money supply increase unemployment. Our results are consistent with Phillips curve and Okun’s Law suggestion. Namely, negative relationship between output and unemployment and positive relationship between unemployment and inflation are found. Also, this study found consistent results with earlier literature.

  20. Liaison of Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables: A Case Study of Pakistan

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    Aneel Salman

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate plays a significant role in the economic growth of a country because it has also a close relationship to some major macroeconomic variables like Gross Domestic Product (GDP, interest rate, current account and inflation etc. All these variables are adversely affected by uncertainty or fluctuations in exchange rate. The objective of this paper was to find out the relationship between the exchange rate and other above mentioned macroeconomic variables. The paper not only described the relationship but also defined the nature of the relationship between the selected variables. The results showed that exchange rate has a long run relationship to GDP, inflation, interest rate and current account. Granger Causality test concluded that there was unidirectional causal relationship between exchange rate and GDP and the direction of causal relationship run from exchange rate to GDP. There were also some policy implications suggested for the stability in exchange rate and removing the adverse effects of uncertainty in Pakistan.

  1. Macroeconomic Variables and the Dynamic Effect of Public Expenditure: Long-term Trend Analysis in Nigeria

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    Ajibola Arewa

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the long-run relationship between government expenditures and a set of macroeconomic variables (GDP, consumer price index and unemployment using annual data collected from CBN statistical bulletin for a period of 19891 to 2011. It particularly adopts Johansen multivariate co integration for its estimation procedure and discovers that there is long-run relationship between government expenditure and the specified macroeconomic variables. It also discovers that an increase in capital expenditure improves economic bliss, while recurrent expenditure is detrimental to growth. Finally, our findings show that most of the variables do not Granger cause each other, but however, recurrent expenditure Granger causes prices, in the same veil capital expenditure does granger cause unemployment.

  2. How well do financial and macroeconomic variables predict stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    Recent evidence of mean reversion in stock returns has led to an explosion in the development of forecasting variables. This paper evaluates the relative performance of these many variables in both time-series and cross-sectional setups. We collect the different measures and compare...... their forecasting ability for stock returns, and we examine the forecasting variables' ability to reduce pricing errors in the conditional C-CAPM. A key result of the analysis is that the traditional pricedividend ratio performs surprisingly well compared to the many new forecasting variables. We also find......-dividend ratio, the price-consumption ratio of Menzly et al. (2004), and the price-output variable of Rangvid (2006) outperform the other variables. These variables also turn out to be superior in reducing pricing errors in the conditional C-CAPM. Thus, the same set of variables dominate in both time...

  3. Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand

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    Joseph Ato Forson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates and analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship between the Thai stock Exchange Index (SETI and selected macroeconomic variables using monthly time series data that cover a 20-year period from January 1990 to December 2009. The following macroeconomic variables are included in our analysis: money supply (MS, the consumer price index (CPI, interest rate (IR and the industrial production index (IP (as a proxy for GDP. Our findings prove that the SET Index and the selected macroeconomic variables are cointegrated at I (1 and have a significant equilibrium relationship over the long run. Money supply demonstrates a strong positive relationship with the SET Index over the long run, whereas the industrial production index and consumer price index show negative long-run relationships with the SET Index. Furthermore, in non-equilibrium situations, the error correction mechanism suggests that the consumer price index, industrial production index and money supply each contribute in some way to restore equilibrium. In addition, using Toda and Yamamoto’s augmented Granger causality test, we identify a bi-causal relationship between industrial production and money supply and unilateral causal relationships between CPI and IR, IP and CPI, MS and CPI, and IP and SETI, indicating that all of these variables are sensitive to Thai stock market movements. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.

  4. The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching

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    Slah Bahloul

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to study the impact of conventional stock market return and volatility and various macroeconomic variables (including inflation rate, short-term interest rate, the slope of the yield curve and money supply on Islamic stock markets returns for twenty developed and emerging markets using Markov switching regression models. The empirical results for the period 2002–2014 show that both developed and emerging Islamic stock indices are influenced by conventional stock indices returns and money supply for both the low and high volatility regimes. However, the other macroeconomic variables fail to explain the dynamics of Islamic stock indices especially in the high volatility regime. Similar conclusions are obtained by using the MS-VAR model.

  5. Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market Returns For Four Emerging Economies: Brazil, Russia, India, And China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robert D. Gay, Jr

    2011-01-01

    ...? The goal of this study is to investigate the time-series relationship between stock market index prices and the macroeconomic variables of exchange rate and oil price for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC...

  6. Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market Returns For Four Emerging Economies: Brazil, Russia, India, And China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robert D. Gay

    2016-01-01

    ...? The goal of this study is to investigate the time-series relationship between stock market index prices and the macroeconomic variables of exchange rate and oil price for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC...

  7. Assessment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Senna, Viviane; Souza, Adriano Mendonça

    2016-11-01

    Since the 1988 Federal Constitution social assistance has become a duty of the State and a right to everyone, guaranteeing the population a dignified life. To ensure these rights federal government has created programs that can supply the main needs of people in extreme poverty. Among the programs that provide social assistance to the population, the best known are the "Bolsa Família" Program - PBF and the Continuous Cash Benefit - Continuous Cash Benefit - BPC. This research's main purpose is to analyze the relationship between the main macroeconomic variables and the Federal government spending on social welfare policy in the period from January 2004 to August 2014. The used methodologies are the Vector auto regression model - VAR and Error Correction Vector - VEC. The conclusion, was that there is a meaningful relationship between macroeconomic variables and social assistance programs. This indicates that if the government takes a more abrupt resolution in changing the existing programs it will result in fluctuations in the main macroeconomic variables interfering with the stability of Brazilian domestic economy up to twelve months.

  8. Macroeconomic Variables and Money Supply: Evidence from Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    long and short run relationship and causality of employed variables. The results ..... result that EXR has a negative and slightly insignificant impact on M2 in Nigeria. The ... Money in a developing economy: A portfolio approach to money.

  9. tests of the arbitrage pricing theory using macroeconomic variables ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eyerusalem

    : G1 ... relevant in the pricing of stocks returns. This theory ..... this implies that these are most volatile variables in terms of annual movements over time. .... the fact that new or emerging firms with prospects may be more active in the market.

  10. Economic fluctuations and possible non-linear relations between macroeconomic variables for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamimura, A.; Guerra, S. M. G.

    2001-03-01

    The correctness of the macroeconomic prospective evaluations for planning activities, mainly for capital intensive sectors, such as electricity supply, may represent the key between the success or failure of any kind of money-spending scheme. Macroeconomical results derived from government models exhibit, in general, excessive optimistic growth and do not take into account “natural” fluctuations and other “explicit time-dependent events” found in any economical system. Such “quasi-deterministic” phenomena are derived from non-linear systems properties, like biological and “highly viscous” systems. This paper shows how this kind of “natural” process can be represented by this approach, which embodies two distinct behaviours observed in Brazilian historical data: the systematic capital productivity decline and the oscillatory mechanism in the GDP production. This mathematical model represents one possible mechanism, which explain the macroeconomic variables behaviour. The oscillatory period obtained by this approach is close to that observed historically. For practical prospective purposes, an empirical model is also presented.

  11. IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON GDP GROWTH OF PAKISTAN

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    Muhammad Ramzan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is about the impact of trade openness and selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth of Pakistan. Economic growth of Pakistan is measured interms of annual nominal GDP growth rate. Trade openness, employment rate, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, and inflation rate are taken as independent variables in this study. Augumanted Dickey Fuller (ADF test is applied to check unit root problem, which is not found in the data. Johansen Co-integration test is used and reuslts of all the variables are significant, indicating that there exits long term relationship among the variables. Ordinary Least Square (OLS method is then applied to check the casual effect of exogenous variables. Rsults show that all variables are co-integrated at 5% level of significance.

  12. AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN INDIA

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    Ashish Kumar

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The present paper is aimed at studying the nature of the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in India, if any such relationship exists. For this purpose the techniques of unit– root tests, cointegration and the Granger causality test have been applied between the NSE Index ‘Nifty’ and the macroeconomic variables, viz. , Real effective economic rate (REER, Foreign Exchange Reserve (FER, and Balance of Trade (BoT, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, Index of industrial production (IIP, Wholesale price index (WPI using monthly data for the period from 1st April 2006 to 31st March 2010 have been studied.The major findings of the study are (i there is no co integration between Nifty and all other variables except Wholesale price index (WPI as per Johansen Co integration test. Therefore causal relationship between such macro economic variables having no co integration with nifty is not established. (ii Nifty does not Granger Cause WPI and WPI also does not Granger Cause Nifty.

  13. Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ghanaian Stock Market Returns: A Co-integration Analysis

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    J. K. M. Kuwornu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the Ghanaian stock market returns using monthly data over period January 1992 to December, 2008. Macroeconomic variables used in this study are consumer price index (as a proxy for inflation, crude oil price, exchange rate and 91 day Treasury bill rate (as a proxy for interest rate. The study employs the Johansen Multivariate Co-integration Procedure. The empirical results reveal that there is co-integration between the four macroeconomic variables and stock returns in Ghana indicating long run equilibrium relationship. Further, the results reveal that; in the short run, Treasury Bill Rate significantly influences the stock returns, with and an elasticity of 0.005, implying that a 1% rise in the Treasury bill rate will lead to a 0.005% rise in the stock returns. The inflation rate is also significant at 1% with elasticity -0.135744, implying that a 1% increase in inflation rate will decrease stock returns by 0.14 %. The residual value of 0.785548 of the Error Correction Model indicates that about 79% of the deviations of the stock returns are corrected in the short run, which is quite high and encouraging for an emerging market like the Ghana Stock Exchange. In the long run, however, the stock returns are significantly influenced by Inflation rate, Crude oil prices, Exchange rate, and Treasury bill rate, with elasticities of 0.5479, -0.03021, 0.05213, and 0.00322 respectively. Crude oil price is negatively related to stock returns; 1% rise in Crude oil prices will decrease returns by 0.03%. Also a 1% increase in inflation rate increases stock returns by 0.54%; and a 1% rise in exchange rate increases stock returns by 0.052%. The effect of Treasury bill rate is highly inelastic with elasticity of 0.003. In both the short run and the long run results, inflation rate appears to be the most influential macroeconomic variable affecting stock market returns in Ghana. The results also

  14. The effect of macroeconomic variables on non performance financing of Islamic Banks in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latifah Dian Iriani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This research is going to discuss about the determinant macro variables and bank’s behavior determinant credit risk on Islamic rural bank in Indonesia. It could be seen on macro variables such as inflation, exchange rate, Jakarta I slamic index (JII and money supply (M2, and bank’s behavior such as financing. Research methodology used at this study is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Following these procedures, it applies Unit Roots Test, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Lag Length Criteria Test, Correlation Matrix – Johansen Julius Co-integration Test, VECM Estimation, Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition Test. The result show that both bank behaviors and macroeconomic variables are significant affecting non-performing financing (NPF. The banking need more careful to manage internal and external factors that influence non-performing financing (NPF.

  15. THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE YIELD SPREAD OF INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT’S BOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Utama

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the roles of macroeconomic variables, which include interest rate (SBI, Consumer Price Index (IHK, Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG, money supply (JUB and exchange rate (KURS on yield spread of government bonds (YSI in Indonesia. The study employs Error Correction Model (ECM on Indonesian monthly data from January 2008 to December 2013. The study confirms that SBI and KURS significantly determine the YSI in the short run and the long run but money supply is significant only in the long run. However, YSI is not influenced by IHK and IHSG. Based on term structure of interest rate theory, the study finds that the expected future interest rate is determined by SBI, KURS, and JUB.

  16. The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications

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    Yu Hsing

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on the stock market index in South Africa. The exponential GARCH (Nelson, 1991 model is applied. It finds that South Africa’s stock market index is positively influenced by the growth rate of real GDP, the ratio of the money supply to GDP and the U.S. stock market index and negatively affected by the ratio of the government deficit to GDP, the domestic real interest rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, the domestic inflation rate, and the U.S. government bond yield. Therefore, to maintain a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to pursue economic growth, fiscal prudence, a higher ratio of the money supply to GDP, a lower real interest rate, depreciation of the rand, and/or a lower inflation rate.

  17. Econometric analysis on the impact of macroeconomic variables toward financial performance: A case of Malaysian public listed logistics companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakariah, Sahidah; Pyeman, Jaafar; Ghazali, Rahmat; Rahman, Ibrahim A.; Rashid, Ahmad Husni Mohd; Shamsuddin, Sofian

    2014-12-01

    The primary concern of this study is to analyse the impact against macroeconomic variables upon the financial performance, particularly in the case of public listed logistics companies in Malaysia. This study incorporated five macroeconomic variables and four proxies of financial performance. The macroeconomic variables selected are gross domestic product (GDP), total trade (XM), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate (INF), and interest rate (INT). This study is extended to the usage of ratio analysis to predict financial performance in relation to the changes upon macroeconomic variables. As such, this study selected four (4) ratios as proxies to financial performance, which is Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE). The findings of this study may appear non-controversial to some, but it resulted in the following important consensus; (1) GDP is found to be highly impacting NPM and least of ROA, (2) XM has high positive impact on OPM and least on ROE, (3) FDI appear to have insignificant impact towards NPM, and (4) INF and INT show similar negative impact on financial performance, precisely highly negative on OPM and least on ROA. Such findings also conform to the local logistic industry settings, specifically in regards to public listed logistics companies in relation to its financial performance.

  18. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND ROMANIAN CORPORATE DEFAULT RATES BETWEEN 2002-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suveg Orsolya

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available During its 20 year history of market economy, Romania experienced the most severe downturn in 2009, which resulted in many cost, mainly because of the output loss. These conditions forced several firms to declare bankruptcy and to stop their activity. The aim of this research is to assess the relationship between the corporate default rates and the macroeconomic processes in the case of Romania for the period comprised between 2002Q1-2008Q4. For this, based on the relevant literature, we ranked the potential explanatory variables of the default rates into seven groups: cyclical indicators, household indicators, corporate indicators, external sector indicators, price stability indicators and interest rates, loans to private sector and finally the capital market indicators. Some studies base their results only on accounting data, others only on market data. Our study focuses on both, since this seems to be an adequate approach in capturing most of the processes. Similar to the banks loan portfolio structure, we conducted analysis for five sectors: industry, construction, agriculture, services and the overall economy. For each sector the average default probability at time t is modeled as a logistic function of many general and sector-specific macroeconomic variables. The use of logistic regression was motivated by its ability to account for fractional data between 0 and 1. We found that at least one variable from each group has a significant explanatory power regarding the evolution of the default rates in all five sectors analyzed. In some cases the sign of the variables was the opposite of what the economic theory would have suggested, but it has to be taken into account that Romania posted the picture of an overheated economy during the analyzed period. Another important conclusion was that many variables were significant through their lagged value, which indicates an even better supervision of the evolution of the specific variables. From all

  19. ANALYSIS MODEL ON THE RELATION BETWEEN MACROECONOMICAL VARIABLE TENDENCIES AND COMERCIAL BANK’S CREDIT RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benyovszki Anamaria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to apply a macroeconomic credit risk model which links a set of macroeconomic factors and industry-specific corporate sector default rates using Romanian data over the time period from 2002:2 to 2008:2. Using the modeled and

  20. Property crime and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia: Some empirical evidence from a vector error-correction model

    OpenAIRE

    Habibullah, M.S.; Law, Siong-Hook

    2008-01-01

    In this study we investigated the long-run relationship between property crime and three macro-financial economic variables in Malaysia for the period 1973 to 2003. In order to avoid what the econometrician term as ‘spurious regression problem’ we estimate the model using the vector-error correction (VECM) framework. The results tend to suggest that there are long-run relationship between property crime and the three macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. Our VECM results, however, suggest that...

  1. Health spending, macroeconomics and fiscal space in countries of the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Indrani; Mondal, Swadhin

    2014-01-01

    The paper examines the issues around mobilization of resources for the 11 countries of the South-East Asia Region of the World Health Organization (WHO), by analysing their macroeconomic situation, health spending, fiscal space and other determinants of health. With the exception of a few, most of these countries have made fair progress on their own Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets of maternal mortality ratio and mortality rate in children aged under 5 years. However, the achieved targets have been very modest - with the exception of Thailand and Sri Lanka - indicating the continued need for additional efforts to improve these indicators. The paper discusses the need for investment, by looking at evidence on economic growth, the availability of fiscal space, and improvements in "macroeconomic-plus" factors like poverty, female literacy, governance and efficiency of the health sector. The analysis indicates that, overall, the countries of the WHO South-East Asia Region are collectively in a position to make the transition from low public spending to moderate or even high health spending, which is required, in turn, for transition from lowcoverage-high out-of-pocket spending (OOPS) to highcoverage-low OOPS. However, explicit prioritization for health within the overall government budget for low spenders would require political will and champions who can argue the case of the health sector. Additional innovative avenues of raising resources, such as earmarked taxes or a health levy can be considered in countries with good macroeconomic fundamentals. With the exception of Thailand, this is applicable for all the countries of the region. However, countries with adverse macroeconomic-plus factors, as well as inefficient health systems, need to be alert to the possibility of overinvesting - and thereby wasting - resources for modest health gains, making the challenge of increasing health sector spending alongside competing demands for spending on other areas of

  2. Macroeconomics in crisis and macroeconomics in recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Roncaglia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The financial and economic crisis brings to a reconsideration of macroeconomics: as it happened in the past, after the Great Crash of 1929 as well as after the Second World War and after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and the subsequent oil crisis. A brief critical survey of mainstream macroeconomics (the neoclassical synthesis and its variants, and its criticisms on the side of Keynesians and Sraffians is followed by a brief survey of the elements of alternative macroeconomic analysis developed by Keynes and Kalecki, Minsky and Sylos Labini, and others.

  3. Appendix to part 3: examining the macroeconomic effects of curbing CO{sub 2} emissions with the Project LINK world econometric model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, H.; Pauly, P.; Ruffing, K.G. [University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada). Inst. for Policy Analysis

    1997-12-31

    The authors identify two problems in most simulations of the impact of carbon taxes using macroeconomic models and energy models. Macroeconomic models treat the level of economic activity as an exogenous variable and energy models do so for energy demand. Secondly, many models assume a constant pattern of international trade and exogenous energy prices. These limit the model`s ability to evaluate a carbon tax. The simulation using the world econometric model of Project LINK with the trace gas accounting system (TGAS) aims at endogenously generating these impacts of a carbon tax. A simulation is presented of a uniform 40 US dollar carbon tax with an endogenous oil price response where the oil price will be about 3 US dollars per barrel below the original scenarios by 2000 and the emission reductions are lower by 1.5-4.7%. The authors conclude that a unilateral G7 carbon tax would reduce CO{sub 2} emissions in these countries. Elimination or reduction of the negative activity effects of a carbon tax is possible through the recycling of revenues and parallel stabilizing policies. 24 refs., 3 tabs.

  4. The Impact of Crisis and Macroeconomic Variables towards Islamic Banking Deposits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamad Abduh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The nature of Islamic banks is different from conventional banks which may lead to a different deposit behavior of their depositors. This study aims to analyze the dynamic effects of interest and profit rate changes, production level, inflation and financial crisis towards the fluctuation of total deposits in Malaysian Islamic banks. Approach: Using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2010, cointegration test and vector error correction model were utilized to uncover the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and crisis with total deposit of Islamic banking. Results: The results show that changes in interest and profit rate as well as production growth has no significant effects. Meanwhile, inflation has negative effect on total deposits of Islamic banks which reflects the changes on depositors consumption pattern during the recession. Interestingly, financial crisis is positively affecting total deposits in Islamic banks. Conclusion: This study provides evidence of general consumer sentiment and deposit behavior. It indicates that in general, due to the 1997/1998 financial crisis experience, bank depositors have trusted Islamic banking to be more resilient in facing financial crisis and hence, inflow of deposits to Islamic banks was happened during 2007/2008 financial crisis.

  5. Testing the Effectiveness of Some Macroeconomic Variables in Stimulating Foreign Trade in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Salamaga

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Some concepts of contemporary econometrics depart from the arbitrary division of variables into endogenous and exogenous. In the estimation process of the econometric model or in prediction process, it may be important to test weak or strong exogeneity of variables. In the foreign trade modelling, we oft en deal with variables between which there may be feedback. Thus, the causality of variables in the classic sense is not always obvils and it should be tested to facilitate the proper specification of foreign trade models. This article is aimed at testing the exogeneity of selected macroeconomic variables used in foreign trade models, based on Visegrad Group countries. Exogeneity tests made in this paper are based on the results of the VEC and VAR models, which enabled to explain dynamic relations between variables in foreign trade. The results of this research can be helpful for determining the structure of actual links between variables, estimation of proper models and forecasting of variable values.

  6. Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hernandez Tinoco, Mario; Wilson, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Using a sample of 23,218 company-year observations of listed companies during the period 1980–2011, the paper investigates empirically the utility of combining accounting, market-based and macro-economic data to explain corporate credit risk. The paper develops risk models for listed companies that

  7. Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hernandez Tinoco, Mario; Wilson, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Using a sample of 23,218 company-year observations of listed companies during the period 1980–2011, the paper investigates empirically the utility of combining accounting, market-based and macro-economic data to explain corporate credit risk. The paper develops risk models for listed companies that

  8. Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait: a case study using a VAR model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eltony, M. Nagy; Al-Awadi, Mohammad [Arab Planning Inst., Safat (Kuwait)

    2001-09-01

    In this study, a vector autoregression model (VAR) and a vector error correction model (VECM) were estimated to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on seven key macroeconomic variables for the Kuwaiti economy. Quarterly data for the period 1984-1998 were utilised. Theoretically and empirically speaking, VECM is superior to the VAR approach. Also, the results corresponding to the VECM model are closer to common sense. However, the estimated models indicate a high degree of interrelation between major macroeconomic variables. The empirical results highlight the causality running from the oil prices and oil revenues, to government development and current expenditure and then towards other variables. For the most part, the empirical evidence indicates that oil price shocks and hence oil revenues have a notable impact on government expenditure, both development and current. However, government development expenditure has been influenced relatively more. The results also point out the significant of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. Also, the results from the VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 per cent in the 10th quarter, even more than its own variations. (Author)

  9. Large footprints in a small world: toward a macroeconomics of scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann Dale

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The question of scale has been of ongoing interest in the sustainable development discourse, particularly with regard to the size, geographical extent, and complexity of human systems. However, this consideration has not sufficiently informed the practical implementation of sustainable technologies and there remain echoes of historical debates over “small is beautiful” versus “bigger is better” that dominated environmentalism during the 1970s. The complex adaptive nature of social and ecological systems suggests that trying artificially to choose a scale for systems is the wrong approach. A properly managed system should self-organize to a scale that optimizes economic prosperity while respecting ecological limits. For this outcome to occur, however, we argue along the lines of Herman Daly for the effective use of macroeconomic tools. Though the specific form of these tools remains undefined, we draw on complex systems theory to suggest four possible properties based on the concepts of resilience and transformability. These properties are then applied to the food system to demonstrate the self-organization of scale.

  10. Predicting the Volatility of Stock Markets and Measuring its Interaction with Macroeconomic Variables: Indian Evidence, Case Study of NIFTY and SENSEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar Jha

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of economic factors on India’s stock markets. It utilized Johansen cointegration test and Innovation Accounting techniques to study the short-run dynamics as well as long-run relationship between stock prices and four macroeconomic variables from the Indian economy. It also attempts to forecast the volatility of stock markets with the help from Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic models (ARCH. We found co-movements between stock market index and macroeconomic variables in a long-run equilibrium path. The variations in the stock prices are mainly attributed to its own variations and to smaller extent by other macroeconomic variables. EGARCH method emerged as the best forecasting tool available, among others. However, it is advisable not to forecast beyond one period in cases of such volatile series, because of the randomness involved as visible from the forecast errors obtained from different methods.

  11. Impacts of Government Debt, the Exchange Rate and Other Macroeconomic Variables on Aggregate Output in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Hsing

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Applying aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis and based on a quarterly sample during 2000.Q4–2015.Q4, this paper finds that Croatia’s aggregate output is positively associated with government debt as percent of GDP during 2000.Q4–2008.Q4, real appreciation of the kuna, the real stock price, German real GDP, the real oil price and real wages and negatively influenced by government debt as percent of GDP during 2009.Q1–2015.Q4, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. The dynamic relationships between real GDP and government debt as percent of GDP suggest that fiscal discipline needs to be exercised in pursuing expansionary macroeconomic policy in the future.

  12. Political macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Dinu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available „Macroeconomics contaminates its principles in subordination to the societal contingent, in a way, creating states of coerced generality by contextualising the truth and circumstantiating the solutions through the adjustment of hypotheses.”

  13. Political macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Dinu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Macroeconomics contaminates its principles in subordination to the societal contingent, in a way, creating states of coerced generality by contextualising the truth and circumstantiating the solutions through the adjustment of hypotheses.

  14. MODELING OF WORLD'S SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT ECONOMIES IMPACT ON THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Bazhenova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops the vector autoregression model of the Ukraine’s economy for exploring the dynamics of key indicators of the domestic economy in response to the shocks from systemically important economies. The foreign variables in the model are growth rates of real GDP, consumer price indices in the advanced economies and in countries of emerging and developing Asia and oil price. The results suggest that the shocks from the “large” economies are absorbed by the domestic economy for a long time. A significant part of the variability of real GDP growth index in Ukraine is due to external factors. Inflation in advanced countries has the most significant influence on this variability (among other external shocks that confirms inflation import from these economies. At the same time the price of oil does not significantly contribute to the explanation of the mentioned variability. Given the euro area share increase in foreign trade and China’s impact on metal market conditions this paper also explores the influence of these economies’ indicators (notably production indices and consumer price indices on Ukraine’s economy.

  15. Econometric Analysis of Food Crops’ Response to Climate Variability and Macroeconomic Policies’ Reforms in Nigeria (1978-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onoja, Anthony O.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the extent to which climate variability (proxied by rainfall variability and macroeconomic policies influenced food crop output in Nigeria. It used time series data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics (1978-2009. Four functional forms of OLS models were tried. The Cobb-Douglas function was finally adopted based on standard econometric model selection criteria and diagnosis. Chow test was used to test the hypotheses of the study. It was found that rainfall variability influenced crop output negatively. Climatic factor, loans guaranteed by Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund and lending rate were all statistically significant drivers of crop output in the economy at p<0.05, p<0.01 and p<0.05 respectively. Their elasticities were respectively 4.01%, 0.52% and 0.98%. No structural difference between the economic reform era and the preceding era‟s regression coefficients was found. Programmes to stem corruption and loan diversion; subsidization of agricultural credit and climate change adaptation capacity building programmes were recommended to bring about sustainable food security in the country.

  16. The macroeconomics of dementia--will the world economy get Alzheimer's disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Sube

    2012-11-01

    Health is firmly on the economic radar. It is big business. In 2009, the proportion of the Gross Domestic Product spent on health care varied between 6.4% in Mexico and 17.4% in the U.S., with the UK at 9.8% and Germany, Switzerland and Canada ∼11%. These are considerable amounts of money and they are growing. With all projections pointing to a growth in the numbers of older people, the pressure on budgets will only increase. In this paper we will consider the role of dementia in this. Demographic and economic data were combined and policy implications developed. The costs of dementia dwarf those of the illnesses that are currently prioritized at a national and international level such as HIV, cancer, heart disease, stroke and diabetes. Based on simple demographics, the costs of dementia are set to increase by 85% by 2030, with developing countries bearing an increasing share of the economic burden. The data suggest that dementia is a clear and present economic challenge for the world from the macro level down to the individual. Before the crisis, governmental structural primary deficits were generally improving and this would have given time and resource to meet the challenges of ageing in general and dementia in particular. However, increasing government debt over the past 3 years has had the effect of our needing to implement reforms to contain the risks to sovereign budgets sooner rather than later. This is not an issue that can be ignored. Inaction will only lead to further debt accumulation in the medium term and the death of systems of care in the long term. Across the developed world, the main long-term fiscal challenges come from health care costs, and dementia is a major driver of those costs. There is a need for budgetary consolidation and pension reform more generally. But, given that dementia is the highest ticket health and social care item that we have, making up 60% of long term care spending according to some estimates, then targeted investment

  17. THE GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS FOR THE FIVE ASEAN COUNTRIES STOCK MARKETS AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES DURING AND POST THE 1997 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adwin Surja Atmadja

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study seeks to examine the existence of Granger-causality among stock prices indices and macroeconomic variables in five ASEAN countries, Indonesia; Malaysia; the Philippines; Singapore; and Thailand with particular attention to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and period onwards. Using monthly time series data of the countries, a Granger-causality test based on the vector autoregressive (VAR analytical framework was employed to empirically reveal the causality among the variables. This research finds that there were few Granger causalities found between the country's wtock price index and macroeconomic variables. This indicates that the linkages between domestic stock price movements and macroeconomic factors were very. Due to that, the ASEAN stock markets were crelatively unable to efficiently capture changes in economic fundamentals during the observation period in most of the countries in accordance to the literature in emerging stock markets, and that the influence of specific macroeconomic factors on the domestic economies differ across countries. This also implies that the stock markets do not seem to have played a significant role in most countries' economies, and macroeconomic variables are unlikely to be appropriate indicators to predict not only the future behaviour of other macroeconomic variables, but also that of the stock market price indices. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Makalah ini mencoba untuk menganalisis keberadaan Granger-causality antara indeks harga saham dan variabel-variabel ekonomi makro di lima negara ASEAN, yaitu Indonesia; Malaysia; Filipina; Singapore; dan Thailand yang berfokus pada periode terjadinya krisis keuangan Asia pada tahun 1997 dan sesudahnya. Dengan mempergunakan data time series bulanan dari setiap negara tersebut, tes Granger-causality yang didasarkan pada kerangka analisa VAR (vector autoregressive diaplikasikan untuk mengungkap secara empiris hubungan kausal antar variabel. Dari hasil tes

  18. Macroeconomic stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    It is demonstrated that full employment and sustainable development not necessarily are conflicting goals. On the other hand macroeconomic stability cannot be obtained without a deliberate labour sharing policy and a shift in the composition of private consumption away from traditional material...

  19. The Effect of Tariff Reduction in Agricultural Sector on Macroeconomic Variables: Using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Heidari

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Economic effects of membership in the WTO in recent years, has been one of the most important issues for Iranian economy. If Iran joins the WTO, in this process, tariff reduction in agricultural sector will be one of the policies which has to be employed. Therefore, investigating economic effects of tariff reduction or even its elimination in this sector will be necessary in running effective policies to minimize the probabilistic losses of accession. Tariffs on agricultural products in Iran are determined merely on the basis of annual country economy, and have no long term strategy. Government is just obliged to impose effective tariffs on agricultural products imports, in order to protect local productions. On the other hand, according to the census of population and housing, the share of agricultural sector in employment has reduced during the past decade. Moreover, Iran central bank information indicated the reduction in the share of agricultural sector in GDP for the past decade. Declining the share of agriculture in production and employment, considering the high number of university graduates in the field of agriculture along with rising unemployment rate of this group, motivated this study to investigate the effect of tariff reduction in this sector on macroeconomic variables. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed the welfare effects of import tariffs reduction in agricultural sector from Iran most important commercial partners and vice versa, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, based on computable general equilibrium (CGE model. Moreover, the effects of tariffs reduction, is investigated on output, price level and transfer of production factors between different economic sectors. In order to simulate the above model, we used GTAP version 8 which covers 57 commodities and 113 regions with economic information of these regions. This model uses Social Accounting Matrix of countries as data information. Our

  20. An Analysis of Traditional Issue Specific and Macroeconomic Variables on US Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities

    OpenAIRE

    Ho, Stephen Shai Tak

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of traditional issue-specific commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) variables on US CMBS spreads. In addition, a decomposition of the Conference Board?s US Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index will be examined for each of the ten component?s explanatory power for US CMBS spreads. A qualitative examination of the history and setting of the US subprime crisis, features of US CMBS, and an outline of The Conference Board?s US LEI components are provided. ...

  1. THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE BET INDEX AND THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN ROMANIA (1997-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoicas Ienciu Adrian

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the conclusions which result from conducting some similar empirical studies on the great stock markets, in this work, we have set as our goal to analyze the return series behaviour of the main index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE - the BET index, during different periods of time, compared to the evolution of some macroeconomic variables, like interbank interest rates, inflation rate or unemployment rate. The results confirm that there is a weak relation between these variables, in what monthly data are concerned.

  2. Essays on Macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Llosa, Luis Gonzalo

    2015-01-01

    In these essays, I examine (i) the role of terms of trade in emerging countries and (ii) economic efficiency under endogenous information. The first chapter documents a negative relationship between the terms of trade - defined as the ratio of imports to the price of exports - and various macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption, investment and total factor productivity (TFP) in emerging economies. The second part of this chapter presents a small open economy business cycles model ...

  3. Ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    on how to reconcile environmental and social concerns. Based on this broad variety of pieces in a jigsaw puzzle, a new ecological macroeconomics is emerging, but the contours are still vague. This chapter seeks to outline some of this topography and to add a few pieces of its own by highlighting the need......The economic decline that began in 2008 opened a window of opportunity for consideration about how to combine macroecononomic and environmental concerns. This discussion is far from new, as evidenced, for instance, by the European Commission’s White Paper from 1993, which explained how a greening...

  4. China's Macroeconomic Development: Stages and Nonlinear Convergence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pingyao Lai

    2006-01-01

    The central theme of this paper is that China's macroeconomic development can be divided into three distinct stages with significant trend changes. Market-oriented reform and opening to the outside world provide main driving forces for the convergence. However, the gradual reform and some inappropriate policies have caused serious ups and downs in China's macroeconomic performance.

  5. Loan quality determinants: Evaluating the contribution of bank-specific variables, macroeconomic factors and firm level information

    OpenAIRE

    Belaid, Faiçal

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses probit and ordered probit methods to examine the impact of banks’ policies in terms of cost efficiency, capitalization, activity diversification, credit growth and profitability, on the loan quality in the Tunisian banking sector after controlling for the effects of firm-specific characteristics and macroeconomic conditions. Using a data set with detailed information for more than 9 000 firms comprising the portfolios of the ten largest Tunisian banks, we show that banks which...

  6. Macroeconomics and Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-12-01

    I., National Income & Economic Accounting, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall Inc., 1969. Dornbusch , R. & Fischer, S., Macroeconomics, New York...system. .0 207 0 References * Dornbusch , R. & Fischer, Macroeconomics, New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1978. Edgmand, M. R., Macroeconomics: Theory and...Central Banking, New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1974, 4th ed. Dornbusch , R. & Fischer, S., Macroeconomics, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1978. Goldfeld, S. M

  7. Macroeconomic Policies Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Muhammad Ali

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This concise study analyses the symmetry of financial markets’ responses to macroeconomic policy interaction in the United Kingdom. Employing the Vector Auto-regression (VAR model on monthly data of the British financial sector and macroeconomic policies from January 1985 to August 2008, this study found that the equity and sovereign debt markets showed identical symmetry in response to macroeconomic policy interaction.

  8. Arctic decadal variability in a warming world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der Eveline C.; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2017-01-01

    Natural decadal variability of surface air temperature might obscure Arctic temperature trends induced by anthropogenic forcing. It is therefore imperative to know how Arctic decadal variability (ADV) will change as the climate warms. In this study, we evaluate ADV characteristics in three

  9. The Macroeconomics of Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addison, Tony; Morrissey, Oliver; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    This Special Issue explores macroeconomic effects of aid from various perspectives through a blend of studies, both conceptual and empirical in nature. The overall aim is to enhance the understanding of the macroeconomic dimensions of aid in the policy and research communities, and to inspire...

  10. Dynamic Analysis of the Macroeconomic Variables Influence on Construction Cost%宏观经济变量对工程造价影响的动态分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵田; 查京民

    2012-01-01

    通过引入脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,应用向量自回归模型分析了宏观经济变量对于建筑工程造价的动态冲击和影响,证明了宏观经济因素与建筑工程造价间存在长期均衡关系,但不同因素影响各异,且存在一定的时滞效应.%By introducing the impulse response function and the variance decomposition,the vector auto regression model was applied to the analyze the dynamic impact and influence of macroeconomic variables on construction cost. Hie empirical results show that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between the macroeconomic variables and construction cost,but the impacts of different factors are diverse with a time - lag effect.

  11. Macroeconomics in develpoing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Nayyar

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available This essay analyzes the differences between the economies of industrialized countriesand developing countries, which have important implications for macroeconomics interms of theory and policy. It considers the differences in macroeconomic objectives andexamines why the reach of macroeconomic policies is different in the two sets ofcountries. It argues that the distinction between short-run macroeconomic models andlong-term growth models is not quite appropriate for developing countries, wheremacroeconomic constraints on growth straddle time horizons and short-term policieshave long-term consequences. The essential hypothesis is that the nature of relationshipsand the direction of causation in macroeconomics, which shape analysis, diagnosis andprescription, depend on the institutional setting and not the analytical structure of models.And even if some laws of economics are universal, the functioning of economies can bemarkedly different. Therefore, economic theory and policy analysis should recognize,rather than ignore, such myriad differences.

  12. Arctic decadal variability in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Eveline C.; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2017-06-01

    Natural decadal variability of surface air temperature might obscure Arctic temperature trends induced by anthropogenic forcing. It is therefore imperative to know how Arctic decadal variability (ADV) will change as the climate warms. In this study, we evaluate ADV characteristics in three equilibrium climates with present-day, double, and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 forcing. The dominant region of variability, which is located over the Barents and Greenland Sea at present, shifts to the central Arctic and Siberian regions as the climate warms. The maximum variability in sea ice cover and surface air temperature occurs in the CO2 doubling climate when sea ice becomes more vulnerable to melt over vast stretches of the Arctic. Furthermore, the links between dominant atmospheric circulation modes and Arctic surface climate characteristics vary strongly with climate change. For instance, a positive Arctic Oscillation index is associated with a colder Arctic in warmer climates, instead of a warmer Arctic at present. Such changing relationships are partly related to the retreat of sea ice because altered wind patterns influence the sea ice distribution and hence the associated local surface fluxes. The atmospheric pressure distributions governing ADV and the associated large-scale dynamics also change with climate warming. The changing character of the ADV shows that it is vital to consider (changes in) ADV when addressing Arctic warming in climate model projections.

  13. Relationship between macroeconomic aggregates and bank performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitrović Ranka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is relations between some macroeconomic aggregates and performance of banks. This paper show analysis of trends in gross domestic product, exchange rates, interest rates, inflation load, developments in the balance of payments. On the business side, performance is achieved insight into the liquidity, capital adequacy, and the amount of non-performable loans. The aim of the research is to refute or confirm the interconnectedness of movement values of macroeconomic aggregates and bank performance. The analysis confirmed the association of two set variables. The negative value movements of macroeconomic aggregates directly or indirectly have an impact on the quality of performance of the banking sector. Therefore, it is necessary to define an adequate strategy of the economy, would not it safer to carry out the process of adapting to new developments in the market, such as the global financial crisis, the rise in unproductive enterprises, distrust customers etc.

  14. Macroeconomic Issues in Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjertholm, Peter; Laursen, Jytte; White, Howard

    foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,......foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,...

  15. Intermediate Macroeconomics Tutorials and Applets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartner, Manfred

    2001-01-01

    Describes a Web site designed for undergraduate macroeconomics teaching. Includes examples of two teaching modules, an applet that features macro time series for 19 countries, dictionaries of macroeconomic terms in 12 languages, links to macroeconomic topics, and an intranet search option. (JEH)

  16. Intermediate Macroeconomics Tutorials and Applets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartner, Manfred

    2001-01-01

    Describes a Web site designed for undergraduate macroeconomics teaching. Includes examples of two teaching modules, an applet that features macro time series for 19 countries, dictionaries of macroeconomic terms in 12 languages, links to macroeconomic topics, and an intranet search option. (JEH)

  17. Inflows and their Macroeconomic Impact in India a VAR Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayan Sethi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study attempts to examine the effects of private foreign capital inflows (FINV on macroeconomic variables in India. The study also examines the trends and composition of capital inflows into India. Using the Vector Autoregression (VAR method, this paper specifically examines effects of private foreign capital inflows (FINV on macroeconomic variables in India. This study is based on the monthly data from 1995:04 to 2011:07 and incorporating the macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate (EXR, inflation, money supply (M3, export (EXPO, import (IMP, foreign exchange reserve (FOREX and economic growth (IIP as proxy of GDP. The important observations emerge from the VAR analysis which shows there is dynamic short and long equilibrium relationship between few macroeconomic variables like exchange rate (EXR, foreign exchange reserve (FOREX, index of industrial production (IIP and money supply (M3 with private foreign capital inflows (FINV during the study period from 1995:04 to 2011:07

  18. The macroeconomics of banking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Kwaak, C.G.F.

    2017-01-01

    This thesis studies the macroeconomic effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in an environment where commercial banks are undercapitalized after a financial crisis and have large holdings of (risky) government bonds on their balance sheets. An undercapitalized banking system cannot perfectly el

  19. Mali Kural Uygulamalarının Makroekonomik Değişkenler Üzerine Etkileri ( The Impacts of Fiscal Rules on Macroeconomic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa MIYNAT

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Theories associated with social interference-intervention on economic markets have differed in time. A rise of government expenditures and budget deficits in the 1990s have created some innovation needs in the field of public finance that makes definition of fiscal rule a current issue. This study empirically seek to reveal the impacts of fiscal rule practices on macroeconomic variables, including unemployment rate and economic growth for 24 developed economies by using unbalanced panel data analysis. For this purpose, the data set is annually covered for the period from 1985 to 2012 in these economies. According to consequences of this study, economic growth, government debt as a percent of GDP and government expenditure as a percent of GDP have positive and statistically significant relationship while expenditure rule and inflation rate have negative and statistically significant related to unemployment rate. On the other hand, economic growth is correlated that unemployment rate and tax revenue as percent of GDP have positive and statistically significant and, budget balance rule, government debt as a percent of GDP and government expenditure as a percent of GDP have negative and statistically significant. Ekonomik piyasalarda kamu müdahalesi ile ilişkili olan teoriler zaman içinde farklılık göstermişlerdir. 1990’larda kamu harcamaları ve bütçe açıklarında yaşanan artışlar, kamu finansmanı alanında bazı yeniliklere ihtiyaç duyulması nedeniyle mali kural kavramını gündeme getirmiştir. Bu çalışma; 24 gelişmiş ekonomi için dengesiz panel veri analizini kullanarak işsizlik oranı ve ekonomik büyüme oranının dahil edildiği makroekonomik değişkenlere mali kural uygulamalarının etkilerini ampirik olarak ortaya koymayı amaçlamıştır. Bu amaçla, sözkonusu ekonomilerde 1985-2012 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonuçlarına göre; ekonomik büyüme, GSYH içindeki kamu

  20. The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data

    OpenAIRE

    Pramod Kumar, Naik; Puja, Padhi

    2012-01-01

    The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex) and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic v...

  1. Macroeconomic model of national economy development (extended

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Diaconova

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available The macroeconomic model offered in this paper describes complex functioning of national economy and can be used for forecasting of possible directions of its development depending on various economic policies. It is the extension of [2] and adaptation of [3]. With the purpose of determination of state policies influence in the field of taxes and exchange rate national economy is considered within the framework of three sectors: government, private and external world.

  2. Essays in development macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    João Moreira Salles

    2012-01-01

    Developing macroeconomics is less about looking for ways to say that economic rules stemming from research in developed countries don\\'t apply to emerging-markets, than it is about trying to understand the many stages these economies go through in the natural course of their development. There are, of course, exceptions, but economic phenomena tend to have common sources. These are, after all, generated by the incentives, designed or natural, that people face when dealing with their day to da...

  3. Nonlinearities in Behavioral Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Orlando

    2017-07-01

    This article undertakes a journey across the literature on behavioral macroeconomics, with attention concentrated on the nonlinearities that the behavioral approach typically suggests or implies. The emphasis is placed on thinking the macro economy as a living organism, composed of many interacting parts, each one having a will of its own, which is in sharp contrast with the mechanism of the orthodox view (well represented by the neoclassical or new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium - DSGE - model). The paper advocates that a thorough understanding of individual behavior in collective contexts is the only possible avenue to further explore macroeconomic phenomena and the often observed 'anomalies' that the benchmark DSGE macro framework is unable to explain or justify. After a reflection on the role of behavioral traits as a fundamental component of a new way of thinking the economy, the article proceeds with a debate on some of the most relevant frameworks in the literature that somehow link macro behavior and nonlinearities; covered subjects include macro models with disequilibrium rules, agent-based models that highlight interaction and complexity, evolutionary switching frameworks, and inattention based decision problems. These subjects have, as a fundamental point in common, the use of behavioral elements to transform existing interpretations of the economic reality, making it more evident how irregular fluctuations emerge and unfold on the aggregate.

  4. CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCES - AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coroiu Sorina

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The empirical evidence upon the macroeconomic performances of the independent central banks do not always have been successfully. In some cases, the consistency of the indices based on the interpretation of central banks statues used for measuring the degree of central bank independence is controversial, particularly for some of the indices. Moreover, the correlations between central bank independence and macroeconomic performance variables are not always confirmed, the causal relationship between central bank independence and inflation is controversial, and the higher disinflation costs, as a result of a higher sacrifice ratio correlated with the degree of independence is controversial, too. The effects of central bank independence upon macroeconomic performances focalized upon the empirical evidence of inflation, output or economic grouth and the disinflation costs. This is due to the lack of studies vis - vis of relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performances regarding some variables like interest rates and budgetary deficits. Specialists consider inflation and output as the main determinats of the social welfare. The economic literature regarding this fact suggests that the central bank is seen as a free lunch institution. This hypothesis sustains that independent central banks will have social benefits in terms of lower inflation rates, but without any costs in terms of the real macroeconomic performances as a higher output volatility or a lower economic growth. In this article we provide a qualitative analyses regarding the relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performances. For this purpose the authors used the new index for measuring central bank independence and inflation targeting based on three pillars: political and legal central bank independence, central bank governance and conduct of monetary policy, central bank transparency and accountability. For estimating the

  5. New macroeconomic model of national economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyudmila Nikolaevna Kuklina

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the relevance of the formation of new macroeconomic models of post-crisis development of the national economy and regional economy. It is noted that there is not just a set of models of national economies and a set of methodological approaches to its modeling. Formation of macroeconomic models takes into consideration the features of socio-economic development of individual regions. In this context, the major regions are highlighted, in particular, the Ural Federal District. It is noted that the structure of regional economic space of the Ural Federal District is different, and different is the level of involvement of the region in the global economy. The problem of correlation of the history of economic ideas and the world of real economic processes of recent decades is reviewed. Predictive capacity of the modern theory of the cycle and the possibility of using its analytical tools for the formation of a new macroeconomic model of post-crisis development of the national economy is analyzed.

  6. Impact of Main Macroeconomic Indicators on Happiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yavuz Agan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between economic welfare and happiness has been compounded by different conceptualizations and statistical approaches. Economic conditions influence the welfare and social well-being of the society. While the literature indicates a positive relationship between income levels and life satisfaction, it indicates negative relationships between inflation, unemployment and life satisfaction. In this paper we analyze the relationship between main macroeconomic variables of unemployment, inflation, per capita GDP and life satisfaction using data from 57 countries. We make use of the standard regression analysis and conclude that our method is sufficient to examine the relations and the stated macro variables are significantly affecting life satisfaction towards expected directions.

  7. Impact of Main Macroeconomic Indicators on Happiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yavuz Agan

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between economic welfare and happiness has been compounded by different conceptualizations and statistical approaches. Economic conditions influence the welfare and social well-being of the society. While the literature indicates a positive relationship between income levels and life satisfaction, it indicates negative relationships between inflation, unemployment and life satisfaction. In this paper we analyze the relationship between main macroeconomic variables of unemployment, inflation, per capita GDP and life satisfaction using data from 57 countries. We make use of the standard regression analysis and conclude that our method is sufficient to examine the relations and the stated macro variables are significantly affecting life satisfaction towards expected directions

  8. Macroeconomic Dynamics and Financial Crisis in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph. D. Olusegun Olowe

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This work as an empirical economics assessment examined the role of domestic macroeconomic policies with emphasis on the management of the impact of macroeconomic variables on the global financial crisis in Nigeria.. It applies VAR framework on annual time series data from 1969 to 2009. The paper opines that the Nigerian economy is far from converging towards a sustainable equilibrium in the short run. The paper suggests that attitudinal change, monetary and fiscal policies could be used to address the Nigerian version of the global financial crisis. However, the right mix of these policies to avoid conflicts in the light of dampening effects of the global financial melt-down as well as the possible effects of the global financial crisis and macroeconomic fluctuations on economic development in Nigeria is of relevance..The direction and magnitude of relevant policy to stimulate increased government intervention, it was observed that there is the need for comparative dynamics of economies in order to return to the path of sustainable growth and development

  9. Undecidability in macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Siddharth; Chandra, Tushar Deepak

    1993-01-01

    In this paper we study the difficulty of solving problems in economics. For this purpose, we adopt the notion of undecidability from recursion theory. We show that certain problems in economics are undecidable, i.e., cannot be solved by a Turing Machine, a device that is at least as powerful as any computational device that can be constructed. In particular, we prove that even in finite closed economies subject to a variable initial condition, in which a social planner knows the behavior of every agent in the economy, certain important social planning problems are undecidable. Thus, it may be impossible to make effective policy decisions. Philosophically, this result formally brings into question the Rational Expectations Hypothesis which assumes that each agent is able to determine what it should do if it wishes to maximize its utility. We show that even when an optimal rational forecast exists for each agency (based on the information currently available to it), agents may lack the ability to make these forecasts. For example, Lucas describes economic models as 'mechanical, artificial world(s), populated by ... interacting robots'. Since any mechanical robot can be at most as computationally powerful as a Turing Machine, such economies are vulnerable to the phenomenon of undecidability.

  10. On the character of macroeconomics, macroeconomic policy and econometrics: the need for another macroeconomic policy conception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.H. HOODGDUIN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The work argues that the “traditional” macroeconomic policy conception that emerged in the fifties and sixties was rightly challenged in the seventies, although on the basis of an insufficiently grounded belief in the equilibrating tendencies in market economies. According to the author, the traditional policy conception should be rejected for its misconception of the character of macroeconomics which led to an overly pretentious claim for the possibilities of macroeconomics and macroeconometric model-building in the field of policy. Furthermore, it is argued that the possibility of important deficiencies in the functioning of market economies cannot be precluded on either theoretical or empirical grounds. 

  11. Rethinking macroeconomic policies for development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Nayyar

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The global economic crisis has created an opportunity to rethink macroeconomics for development. Such rethinking is both necessary and desirable. It is essential to redefine macroeconomic objectives so that the emphasis is on fostering employment creation and supporting economic growth instead of the focus on price stability alone. It is just as important to rethink macroeconomic policies which cannot simply be used for the management of inflation and the elimination of macroeconomic imbalances, since fiscal and monetary policies are powerful and versatile instruments in the pursuit of development objectives. In doing so, it is essential to the overcome the constraints embedded in orthodox economic thinking and recognize the constraints implicit in the politics of ideology and interests.

  12. Macroeconomic adjustment shows government resolve

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUANPENG

    2004-01-01

    In the last week of April, the Chinese government unexpectedly announced a set of administrative contracting polices to curb overheating investment. These policies seriously changed market expectation on central government's attitude towards the macroeconomic adiustment.

  13. Asymmetric information and macroeconomic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Raymond J.; Aoki, Masanao; Roy Frieden, B.

    2010-09-01

    We show how macroeconomic dynamics can be derived from asymmetric information. As an illustration of the utility of this approach we derive the equilibrium density, non-equilibrium densities and the equation of motion for the response to a demand shock for productivity in a simple economy. Novel consequences of this approach include a natural incorporation of time dependence into macroeconomics and a common information-theoretic basis for economics and other fields seeking to link micro-dynamics and macro-observables.

  14. Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data

    OpenAIRE

    Fukang Zhu; Zongwu Cai; Liang Peng

    2014-01-01

    Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures for predictability. In this paper we propose novel empirical likelihood methods based on some weighted score equations to test whether the monthly CRSP value-weighted index can be predicted by the log dividend-price ratio or the log earnings-price ratio. Th...

  15. Aid Policy and the Macroeconomic Management of Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addison, Tony; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    This is an introduction to the UNU-WIDER special issue of World Development on aid policy and the macroeconomic management of aid. We provide an overview of the 10 studies, grouping them under three sub-themes: the aid–growth relationship; the supply-side of aid (including its level, volatility......, and coordination of donors); and the macroeconomic framework around aid. The studies in the special issue demonstrate the centrality of research methodology, the importance of disaggregation, and the need to account for country-specific situations and problems. This introduction concludes that the sometimes “over...

  16. Three Essays on Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doda, Lider Baran

    This dissertation consists of three independent essays in macroeconomics. The first essay studies the transition to a low carbon economy using an extension of the neoclassical growth model featuring endogenous energy efficiency, exhaustible energy and explicit climate-economy interaction. I derive the properties of the laissez faire equilibrium and compare them to the optimal allocations of a social planner who internalizes the climate change externality. Three main results emerge. First, the exhaustibility of energy generates strong market based incentives to improve energy efficiency and reduce CO 2 emissions without any government intervention. Second, the market and optimal allocations are substantially different suggesting a role for the government. Third, high and persistent taxes are required to implement the optimal allocations as a competitive equilibrium with taxes. The second essay focuses on coal fired power plants (CFPP) - one of the largest sources of CO2 emissions globally - and their generation efficiency using a macroeconomic model with an embedded CFPP sector. A key feature of the model is the endogenous choice of production technologies which differ in their energy efficiency. After establishing four empirical facts about the CFPP sector, I analyze the long run quantitative effects of energy taxes. Using the calibrated model, I find that sector-specific coal taxes have large effects on generation efficiency by inducing the use of more efficient technologies. Moreover, such taxes achieve large CO2 emissions reductions with relatively small effects on consumption and output. The final essay studies the procyclicality of fiscal policy in developing countries, which is a well-documented empirical observation seemingly at odds with Neoclassical and Keynesian policy prescriptions. I examine this issue by solving the optimal fiscal policy problem of a small open economy government when the interest rates on external debt are endogenous. Given an

  17. Entropy, recycling and macroeconomics of water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2014-05-01

    We propose a macroeconomic model for water quantity and quality supply multipliers derived by water recycling (Karakatsanis et al. 2013). Macroeconomic models that incorporate natural resource conservation have become increasingly important (European Commission et al. 2012). In addition, as an estimated 80% of globally used freshwater is not reused (United Nations 2012), under increasing population trends, water recycling becomes a solution of high priority. Recycling of water resources creates two major conservation effects: (1) conservation of water in reservoirs and aquifers and (2) conservation of ecosystem carrying capacity due to wastewater flux reduction. Statistical distribution properties of the recycling efficiencies -on both water quantity and quality- for each sector are of vital economic importance. Uncertainty and complexity of water reuse in sectors are statistically quantified by entropy. High entropy of recycling efficiency values signifies greater efficiency dispersion; which -in turn- may indicate the need for additional infrastructure for the statistical distribution's both shifting and concentration towards higher efficiencies that lead to higher supply multipliers. Keywords: Entropy, water recycling, water supply multipliers, conservation, recycling efficiencies, macroeconomics References 1. European Commission (EC), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), United Nations (UN) and World Bank (2012), System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework (White cover publication), United Nations Statistics Division 2. Karakatsanis, G., N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis and A. Efstratiades (2013), Entropy and reliability of water use via a statistical approach of scarcity, 5th EGU Leonardo Conference - Hydrofractals 2013 - STAHY '13, Kos Island, Greece, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences

  18. [Biotechnology's macroeconomic impact].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dones Tacero, Milagros; Pérez García, Julián; San Román, Antonio Pulido

    2008-12-01

    This paper tries to yield an economic valuation of biotechnological activities in terms of aggregated production and employment. This valuation goes beyond direct estimation and includes the indirect effects derived from sectorial linkages between biotechnological activities and the rest of economic system. To deal with the proposed target several sources of data have been used, including official data from National Statistical Office (INE) such us national accounts, input-output tables, and innovation surveys, as well as, firms' level balance sheets and income statements and also specific information about research projects compiled by Genoma Spain Foundation. Methodological approach is based on the estimation of a new input-output table which includes the biotechnological activities as a specific branch. This table offers both the direct impact of these activities and the main parameters to obtain the induced effects over the rest of the economic system. According to the most updated available figures, biotechnological activities would have directly generated almost 1,600 millions of euros in 2005, and they would be employed more than 9,000 workers. But if we take into account the full linkages with the rest of the system, the macroeconomic impact of Biotechnological activities would reach around 5,000 millions euros in production terms (0.6% of total GDP) and would be responsible, directly or indirectly, of more than 44,000 employments.

  19. Assessing heart rate variability from real-world Holter reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Phyllis K

    2002-09-01

    Real world clinical Holter reports are often difficult to interpret from a heart rate variability (HRV) perspective. In many cases HRV software is absent. Step-by-step HRV assessment from clinical Holter reports includes: making sure that there is enough usable data, assessing maximum and minimum heart rates, assessing circadian HRV from hourly average heart rates, and assessing HRV from the histogram of R-R intervals and from the plot of R-R intervals or heart rate vs. time. If HRV data are available, time domain HRV is easiest to understand and less sensitive to scanning errors. SDNN (the standard deviation of all N-N intervals in ms) and SDANN (the standard deviation of the 5-min average of N-N intervals in ms) are easily interpreted. SDNN < 70 ms post-MI is a cut point for increased mortality risk. Two times ln SDANN is a good surrogate for ln ultra low frequency power and can be compared with published cut points. SDNNIDX (the average of the standard deviations of N-N intervals for each 5-min in ms) < 30 ms is associated with increased risk in patients with congestive heart failure. RMSSD (the root mean square of successive N-N interval difference in ms) < 17.5 ms has also been associated with increased risk post-myocardial infarction. Frequency domain HRV values are often not comparable to published data. However, graphical power spectral plots can provide additional information about whether the HRV pattern is normal and can also identify some patients with obstructive sleep apnea.

  20. An Empirical Research on American Banks”Credit Risks and Macroeconomic Variables%美国银行信用风险与宏观经济变量的实证研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑志尧; 万正晓

    2014-01-01

    以2005年到2012年美国综合银行不良贷款的相关数据为样本,对影响美国银行信用风险的宏观经济变量进行实证检验。研究结果表明:美国综合银行的信用风险水平比较高,其信用风险水平与失业率有着显著的强正相关关系,而与 GDP增长率、消费者物价指数增长率、生产者物价指数增长率和广义货币增长率无关。实际上,美国银行业的信用风险经过金融衍生品分散转化后并没有消除,只是被隐藏起来了,并且逐步累积。有鉴于此,提高我国银行业信用风险管理水平措施包括:一是着重研究宏观经济波动以及政策的实施对信用风险的影响;二是提高就业率,保持宏观经济环境的良好状态;三是借鉴西方发达国家较为成熟的理论体系,形成适合我国的风险管理控制方法;四是提高对住房贷款业务的风险认识;五是重视信用文化建设和银行信用制度创新。%With some randomly selected statistics from the non-performing loans of USA comprehensive banks be-tween 2005 and 2012 as samples,the present paper conducts an empirical study on the macroeconomic variables that affect the credit risks of American banks.The results demonstrate that the credit risks of the comprehensive banks in the USA are comparatively high,and that there exists a significant positive correlation between their level of cred-it risks and unemployment;credit risks have nothing to do with GDPR,CPIR,PPIR,and M2R.However,due to transformation and decentralization caused by financial derivatives,American banking credit risks have been not e-radicated yet;they are j ust hidden and will gradually be accumulated.The measures to raise the level of credit risks management in our country banking include:firstly,we should lay a great emphasis on our researches about macro-economic fluctuations and the impact of implementation in banking policies on credit risks;secondly,we need

  1. MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN GHANA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Bekoe

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In spite of the progress made in economic performance over the years, the Ghanaian economy continues to be bedevilled by a host of constraints. Among these constraints are low levels of savings and investments which have raised serious concerns among economists and policy makers with respect to the sustainability of the achievements attained so far. This study attempts to investigate empirically the link between investments and uncertainty using dataset from Ghana covering the period 1975 to 2008. In the empirical analysis, the paper aims at separating ordinary variability from uncertainty by the construction of measures of uncertainty for some key macroeconomic indicators and using them to assess their impact on investment behaviour within an econometric framework including other acceptable determinants of investment. The Phillip-Hansen cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between private investment, standard determinants of investment, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Result from the study shows that on the whole the investment-uncertainty link reveals a significant negative effect of all macroeconomic uncertainty indicator variables on private investment with the exception of real exchange rate volatility. The values for price of capital uncertainty, real GDP growth uncertainty, and terms of trade uncertainty are large in absolute terms. The regression result further reveals that private investment displays important inertia and shows slow adjustment process towards long-run equilibrium. Lastly, the summary measure of macroeconomic uncertainty which encompasses the first principal components of the conditional variances of the five macroeconomic variables shows a consistent indirect effect on private investment. Generally we found macroeconomic uncertainties to be more detrimental to private investment growth in the long-run relative to the short-run.

  2. Towards an Environmental Macroeconomics Towards an Environmental Macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herman E. Daly

    1990-03-01

    Full Text Available Towards an Environmental Macroeconomics Other than some incipient efforts at including environmental costs in national accounts there are no points of contact between tradifiod macroeconomics and the environment. This condition is explained in terms of Schumpeter's notion of pre-analytic visions: The economy as isolated flow of exchange value versus the economy as open subsystem of the finite ecosystem. From the second pre-analytic vision the first analytical questions that occur are: how big is the economic subsystem relative to the total ecosystem, and how big should it be? This is the macroeconomic question of optimal scale and needs to be clearly distinguished from the microeconomic question of optimal allocation.

  3. The influence of macroeconomic factors to the dynamics of stock exchange in the republic of Kazakhstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakizada Uteulievna Niyazbekova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the influence of macroeconomic factors on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange Market by using data from 2005 to 2014. Engle-Granger cointegration test has shown that stock index is cointegrated with the exchange rate, interest rate, CPI and oil price. Vector error correction model has confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the stock index has a long-term equilibrium relationship. Moreover, empirical results have shown that stock index can be used as a leading indicator of the economic situation in Kazakhstan. Therefore, the authors decided to consider the impact of major macroeconomic indicators to the dynamics of the stock market of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The Engle-Granger cointegration test results show that the following variables such as exchange rate, 10-years long-term bond rate, the consumer price index and the Brent oil price are cointegrated with stock index, which means that there is a long-term relationship between this stock market index and these variables. With the help of econometric models, the authors have found the factors such as the exchange rate, the 10-year long-term bonds rate, the consumer price index and the Brent oil price (these factors have the long-term relationship with stock market index. Changes in the dynamics of the stock market index in Kazakhstan are caused by changes in the dynamics of Central bank's reserves and export. The analysis has shown that the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the index reflects the situation in the real sector of the economy remains dependent on world oil prices, the volume of exports and the rate of the national currency

  4. MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tutberidze

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many arguments that can be advanced to support the forecasting activities of business entities. The underlying argument in favor of forecasting is that managerial decisions are significantly dependent on proper evaluation of future trends as market conditions are constantly changing and require a detailed analysis of future dynamics. The article discusses the importance of using reasonable macro-econometric tool by suggesting the idea of conditional forecasting through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR modeling framework. Under this framework, a macroeconomic model for Georgian economy is constructed with the few variables believed to be shaping business environment. Based on the model, forecasts of macroeconomic variables are produced, and three types of scenarios are analyzed - a baseline and two alternative ones. The results of the study provide confirmatory evidence that suggested methodology is adequately addressing the research phenomenon and can be used widely by business entities in responding their strategic and operational planning challenges. Given this set-up, it is shown empirically that Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach provides reasonable forecasts for the variables of interest.

  5. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  6. Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices: Some Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia

    OpenAIRE

    Lakshmi Kalyanaraman; Basmah Al Tuwajri

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines if there exists a long run relationship among five macroeconomic variables, consumer price index, industrial output, money supply, exchange rate, oil prices along with the global stock prices proxy Standard and Poor 500 index and Saudi all share stock index. Time series analysis is applied using monthly data from January 1994 to June 2013. Application of Johansen cointegration test finds the existence of a long run relationship among the chosen variables. All macroeconomic...

  7. The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data

    OpenAIRE

    Naik, Pramod Kumar; Puja PADHI

    2012-01-01

    The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex) and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that ...

  8. Essays in Education and Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrington, Christopher M.

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on education and macroeconomics. The first chapter analyzes whether public education financing systems can account for large differences among developed countries in earnings inequality and intergenerational earnings persistence. I first document facts about public education in the U.S. and Norway, which…

  9. Essays in Education and Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrington, Christopher M.

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on education and macroeconomics. The first chapter analyzes whether public education financing systems can account for large differences among developed countries in earnings inequality and intergenerational earnings persistence. I first document facts about public education in the U.S. and Norway, which…

  10. Macroeconomic announcements and financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, J.

    2013-01-01

    The third and final study examines the causal relationship between uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and return volatility. The underlying question is: does higher return volatility result in higher uncertainty in beliefs amongst analysts, or the other way around? Using daily data on anal

  11. Analysis of world economic variables using multidimensional scaling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J A Tenreiro Machado

    Full Text Available Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

  12. 我国宏观经济和金融总量增长路径的结构变化研究%Testing for Structural Breaks on the Growth Path of China's Macroeconomic and Financial Variables

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨帆; 滕建州

    2013-01-01

      运用Perron和Yabu(2009)提出的拟可行广义最小二乘法(Quasi-FGLS),对我国有代表性的宏观经济和金融总量的增长路径是否存在结构变化进行检验。实证表明,除银行贷款外,其余9个总量(储蓄存款余额、固定资产投资GDP、人均GDP、就业、消费、进出口、名义工资总额和实际工资总额)的增长路径均发生结构变化,潜在增长率在结构断点前后明显改变,但这种变动有增有减,其中就业和居民消费的变化表现出明显的同步性。区别于以往检验方法,Quasi-FGLS结构变化检验结果不受残差平稳性影响,因此结论更加稳健。%The quasi-feasible generalized least squares procedure proposed by Perron and Yabu (2009)is applied to test structural changes in the growth paths of major macroeconomic and financial variables of China. Compared with other structural break detecting procedures, the advantage of the method utilized is that the empirical result is independent of the natural of noise component, so the conclusions can be more robust. The empirical evidence reveals that except for banking loan, structural changes occur in the growth paths of the other nine variables, including upwards and downwards movements and the potential growth rates change significantly. Besides, employment and consumption display significant synchronicity. Furthermore, the shocks of vital events and policies to economic operation are studied, and the underlying mechanism in the economic chain and the implications of the inconsistent movements are analyzed. Different from the previous test methods, Quasi-FGLS structural changes in test results from the residuals smooth conclusion, which is more robust.

  13. Honeybee economics: optimisation of foraging in a variable world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stabentheiner, Anton; Kovac, Helmut

    2016-06-20

    In honeybees fast and efficient exploitation of nectar and pollen sources is achieved by persistent endothermy throughout the foraging cycle, which means extremely high energy costs. The need for food promotes maximisation of the intake rate, and the high costs call for energetic optimisation. Experiments on how honeybees resolve this conflict have to consider that foraging takes place in a variable environment concerning microclimate and food quality and availability. Here we report, in simultaneous measurements of energy costs, gains, and intake rate and efficiency, how honeybee foragers manage this challenge in their highly variable environment. If possible, during unlimited sucrose flow, they follow an 'investment-guided' ('time is honey') economic strategy promising increased returns. They maximise net intake rate by investing both own heat production and solar heat to increase body temperature to a level which guarantees a high suction velocity. They switch to an 'economizing' ('save the honey') optimisation of energetic efficiency if the intake rate is restricted by the food source when an increased body temperature would not guarantee a high intake rate. With this flexible and graded change between economic strategies honeybees can do both maximise colony intake rate and optimise foraging efficiency in reaction to environmental variation.

  14. Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir's water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes -such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir's capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology. Keywords: Entropy, uncertainty, pricing, hub energy resource, RES, energy storage, capacity scarcity, macroeconomics

  15. Macroeconomic aspects of financial liberalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirdala Rajmund

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The positive and the negative macroeconomic aspects of the financial liberalization for the developing and emerging economies are well described in the present literature. But it is not easy to clearly summarize the final effects of the financial integration on the certain country. For instance the argument about the growth benefits of the capital account liberalization is likely to be inadequate considering the financial crises in the emerging markets at the end of the last century. On the other hand, many authors (especially in the financial literature report that the equity market liberalizations help to significantly boost the economic growth. There are also some examples on the microeconomic level (firm level or industry level when the international financial integration brings certain benefits to the integrated enterprises and the capital flows restriction leads to the distortionary effects. In the paper we analyze the macroeconomic effects of the capital flows liberalization.

  16. Granger Causality between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Tomáš Plíhal

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate informational efficiency of the stock market in Germany. Granger causality between the stock market and the selected macroeconomic variables is investigated by bivariate analysis using Toda-Yamamoto (1995) approach. This study focuses on monthly data from January 1999 to September 2015, and the stock market is represented by blue chip stock market index DAX. Investigated macroeconomic indicators include industrial production, inflation, money supply, in...

  17. The Influence of Global Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Values: A Sector Level Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Şerife Özlen

    2014-01-01

    Investors and policy makers should carefully analyze stock returns and their possible relationships with microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in both local and global arena. Since the markets are increasingly becoming global, the outcomes may be more important for international factors. Therefore, this study aims to identify the relationship between selected international macroeconomic variables (FTSE-100 England market index, GDAX Germany market index, NYSE Composite market index, Gold pr...

  18. Emission Trading System in the SER Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth. Macro-economic calculation by means of WorldScan; ETS in het SER Energieakkoord. Macro-economische doorrekening met WorldScan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brink, C. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands)

    2013-09-01

    The Dutch National Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth aims at strengthening the European system for emissions trading by a more strict emission ceiling. Also, the agreement aims at guarantee the competitiveness of global energy intensive businesses by adjusting the allocation method for emission rights. In the calculations for the energy agreement this is reflected in the adjustment of the ETS pricing path. In this memo the calculations with the equilibrium model WordlScan are described and presented [Dutch] Het Nationaal Energieakkoord voor Duurzame Groei zet in op een versterking van het Europees systeem voor emissiehandel (ETS) door aanscherpen van het emissieplafond. Verder wil het akkoord de concurrentiepositie van het mondiaal opererende energie-intensieve bedrijfsleven borgen door aanpassing van de allocatiemethode voor emissierechten. In de doorrekening van het Energieakkoord is deze inzet tot uitdrukking gebracht in een aanpassing van het ETS-prijspad. Deze notitie beschrijft de berekeningen met het algemeen evenwichtsmodel WorldScan waar deze aanpassing van het ETS-prijspad op is gebaseerd.

  19. [Macroeconomic analysis: agro-nutritional dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coussy, J

    1992-01-01

    This reflection on the renewed prominence of macroeconomic analysis in the area of food and agriculture, especially in Africa, assesses the history, limitations, and potential of the discipline as applied in formulation of agricultural policy. It begins by tracing the development and history of macroeconomic analysis from the emergence of liberal political economy in the late 18th century. The evolution of macroeconomic analysis applied to food and agriculture has not been linear; periods of eclipse have alternated with periods of influence. Most recently, in the 1960s, macroeconomic analysis was important in attempts to understand the place of agriculture in national economies, but the misuse of its vocabulary to justify a number of controversial policy actions created lasting distrust. The questions addressed by macroeconomic analysis and the potential contributions of its use in the 1960s are discussed, followed by an analysis of the reasons for renewed attention to the macroeconomic viewpoint beginning with the balance of payments crisis of the 1980s. The recent growth of institutional demand for macroeconomic analysis and policy has been accompanied by misunderstanding and inflated expectations as to its usefulness, while suspicions linger. The pressures encouraging broadened use of macroeconomic analysis are identified, including the growing influence of purely macroeconomic processes such as urbanization, the demographic transition, and the debt crisis; the intensifying of national and international market constraints affecting food and agriculture; and the legitimation of macroeconomic terminology by the large international organizations. Misapplications of macroeconomic analysis are identified, such as an erroneous equating of "macroeconomy" with "global economy". The lack of consensus among macroeconomic theorists about policies ostensibly based on macroeconomic analysis is discussed, as is the sometimes strained relationship between them and specialists

  20. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization. One of them could be: globalization is an ecosystem in which economic potential is no longer defined or contained by political and geographic boundaries. Economic activity has no bounds in a globalized economy. A globalized world is one where goods, services, financial capital, machinery, money, workers and ideas migrate to wherever they are most valued and can work together most efficiently, flexibly and securely. Where does economic policy come into play in this world? This paper presents some aspects of globalization and the impact on the new strategy of macroeconomics policy.

  1. Macroeconomic impact of the Solar Thermal Electricity Industry in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-10-15

    In the last three years, Solar Thermal Electricity (STE) in Spain has grown significantly. Its weight within the renewables mix is becoming relevant, and even more so, its impact on economics, society, the environment, and reducing energy dependence. This report was carried out by Deloitte for Protermosolar to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the main macroeconomic variables derived from the development of this technology in Spain from 2008 to 2010, and forecast its possible future impact.

  2. SMEs growth in the Czech Republic: Some macroeconomic perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Osakwe, Christian Nedu; Verter, Nahanga; Bečvářová, Věra; Chovancová, Miloslava

    2015-01-01

    Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are seen as a vehicle for employment generation, wealth creation, economic growth and development in countries that have a sound investment climate. SMEs, account for approximately one-third of GDP, over 50% of the value added, 99% of the share of total registered enterprises, and represent 60% of total employment in the Czech Republic. In the light of this background, the paper explores the influence of some macroeconomic variables on SMEs growth in the Cz...

  3. The Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of Aid and Disaggregated Aid in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebregziabher, Fiseha Haile

    2014-01-01

    This article investigates the long-run macroeconomic effects of aid and disaggregated aid flows in Ethiopia, currently the world's largest recipient of official development assistance, for the period 1960-2009. The results show that aid affects gross domestic product (GDP), investment and imports...... positively, whereas it is negatively associated with government consumption. Our results concerning the impacts of disaggregated aid stand in stark contrast to earlier work. Bilateral aid increases investment and GDP and is negatively associated with government consumption, whereas multilateral aid is only...... positively associated with imports. Grants contribute to GDP, investment and imports, whereas loans affect none of the variables. Finally, there is evidence to suggest that multilateral aid and loans have been disbursed in a procyclical fashion...

  4. Enhanced Gravity Model of trade: reconciling macroeconomic and network models

    CERN Document Server

    Almog, Assaf; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2015-01-01

    The bilateral trade relations between world countries form a complex network, the International Trade Network (ITN), which is involved in an increasing number of worldwide economic processes, including globalization, integration, industrial production, and the propagation of shocks and instabilities. Characterizing the ITN via a simple yet accurate model is an open problem. The classical Gravity Model of trade successfully reproduces the volume of trade between two connected countries using known macroeconomic properties such as GDP and geographic distance. However, it generates a network with an unrealistically homogeneous topology, thus failing to reproduce the highly heterogeneous structure of the real ITN. On the other hand, network models successfully reproduce the complex topology of the ITN, but provide no information about trade volumes. Therefore macroeconomic and network models of trade suffer from complementary limitations but are still largely incompatible. Here, we make an important step forward ...

  5. Variable Star Network: World Center for Transient Object Astronomy and Variable Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Taichi; Uemura, Makoto; Ishioka, Ryoko; Nogami, Daisaku; Kunjaya, Chatief; Baba, Hajime; Yamaoka, Hitoshi

    2004-03-01

    Variable Star Network (VSNET) is a global professional-amateur network of researchers in variable stars and related objects, particularly in transient objects, such as cataclysmic variables, black-hole binaries, supernovae, and gamma-ray bursts. The VSNET has been playing a pioneering role in establishing the field of transient object astronomy, by effectively incorporating modern advances in observational astronomy and global electronic networks, as well as collaborative progress in theoretical astronomy and astronomical computing. The VSNET is now one of the best-featured global networks in this field of astronomy. We review the historical progress, design concept, associated technology, and a wealth of scientific achievements powered by VSNET.

  6. Macroeconomic Policy Design in an Interdependent World Economy: An Analysis of Three Contingencies (Conception de la politique macroéconomique dans une économie mondiale interdépendante: analyse de trois éventualités) (Formulación de la política macroeconómica en una economía mundial interdependiente: Análisis de tres casos)

    OpenAIRE

    Willem H. Buiter

    1986-01-01

    The paper uses a small analytical two-region model (the Mundell-Dornbusch model, as first adapted by Marcus Miller), consisting of the United States and the rest of the industrial world, to analyze three issues concerning international economic interdependence and macroeconomic policy coordination. First, what should be the monetary or fiscal response in the rest of the industrial world to a tightening of U.S. fiscal policy, and what should be the U.S. monetary response? A unilateral U.S. fis...

  7. Macroeconomics in an open economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, R N

    1986-09-12

    The customary treatment of national economies as closed and self-contained must be substantially modified to allow for those economies that typically trade goods, services, and securities with other countries in increasing volume. Open economy macroeconomics is essential to understanding the major events of the U.S. economy over the past half dozen years. Both the sharp rise in the dollar and the unprecedentedly large U.S. trade deficit are linked to the U.S. budget deficit, as is the drop in the rate of inflation.

  8. Macroeconomía aplicada

    OpenAIRE

    Tenorio Aguilar, Raymindo

    2012-01-01

    Macroeconomía aplicada es un eBook de texto para estudiantes de nivel profesional, particularmente del área de negocios, que facilita el aprendizaje  del funcionamiento de la economía y su influencia en la vida cotidiana de empresas, gobierno y sociedad. Sus contenidos teórico-prácticos son vigentes y actuales; altamente vinculados a la comprensión de la economía en su conjunto y en particular a la economía mexicana.

  9. The macroeconomics of demographic unemployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlberg, M

    1990-02-01

    "What are the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in labour supply? In the short run, unemployment occurs, due to both lack of aggregate demand and capital shortage. Demand-side policy and money wage restraint prove to be ineffective in this situation, owing to capital shortage. On the other hand, a reduction in working hours without wage compensation as well as a policy mix of both demand-side policy and investment policy turn out to be effective. The reduction in working hours lowers individual income and raises individual leisure, as compared to the policy mix." (SUMMARY IN GER)

  10. Identification of Macroeconomic Factors in Large Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Dewachter, Hans; Houssa, Romain

    standard practices in the SVAR literature. Estimators based on the EM algorithm are developped. We apply this framework to a large panel of US monthly macroeconomic series. In particular, we identify nine macroeconomic factors and discuss the economic impact of monetary policy stocks. The results...

  11. What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araujo, Pedro; O'Sullivan, Roisin; Simpson, Nicole B.

    2013-01-01

    A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach…

  12. What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araujo, Pedro; O'Sullivan, Roisin; Simpson, Nicole B.

    2013-01-01

    A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach…

  13. Variable Star Network: World Center for Transient Object Astronomy and Variable Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Kato, T; Ishioka, R; Nogami, D; Kunjaya, C; Baba, H; Yamaoka, H

    2003-01-01

    Variable Star Network (VSNET, http://www.kusastro.kyoto-u.ac.jp/vsnet/) is a global professional-amateur network of researchers in variable stars and related objects, particularly in transient objects, such as cataclysmic variables, black hole binaries, supernovae and gamma-ray bursts. The VSNET has been playing a pioneering role in establishing the field of "transient object astronomy", by effectively incorporating modern advance in observational astronomy and global electronic network, as well as collaborative progress in theoretical astronomy and astronomical computing. The VSNET is now one of the best-featured global networks in this field of astronomy. We review on the historical progress, design concept, associated technology, and a wealth of scientific achievements powered by the VSNET.

  14. The Manufacturing Sector of Ghana: Are There Any Macroeconomic Disturbances?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Enu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the macroeconomic factors that influence performance of the manufacturing sector of Ghana using multivariate time series approach. It was found out that manufacturing production and real gross domestic product per capita were inversely related. In the long-run, macroeconomic variables such as private sector credit, labour and real exchange rate were unfavourable factors that weigh down the manufacturing sector while in the short-run, the past years consumer price index and real exchange rate were unfavourable to the manufacturing production. Finally, it is recommended that private sector credit to the manufacturing sector should be improved, training of labour force should be skilled and technical oriented and policies to stabilise the real exchange rate should be put in place to halt the down trending in manufacturing production.

  15. A SHORT REVIEW OF MACROECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Bernal, Humberrto

    2007-01-01

    Resumen El objetivo de este documento es entender, clasificar y proporcionar un importante resumen de los rasgos fundamentales de la macroeconomía con fundamentos microeconómicos y la macroeconomía como soporte de la microeconomía. Este documento puede ser interesante para aquellos que desean entender como estas dos escuelas macroeconómicas se han desarrollado. Macroeconomía con fundamento microeconómicos presenta cuatro ramas: la Síntesis Neoclásica, Monetaristas, Nuevos Clásicos y Re...

  16. The macroeconomics of vitreoretinal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, George J; Brown, Melissa M; Brown, Gary C

    2005-06-01

    The purpose of this review is to examine the macroeconomics of vitreoretinal diseases. Approximately 6% of the Medicare Part B expenditure was spent on ocular diseases and 0.3% on vitreoretinal interventions. Among the 17,674 practicing ophthalmologists, 1849 (10.5%) designated themselves as specializing in the treatment of vitreoretinal diseases. Ophthalmologists receive 38% of their payments from Medicare; 13% of their total income were capitated. Age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy, two conditions commonly treated by vitreoretinal specialists, are projected to affect more than 10 million people in 2020. Vitreoretinal interventions account for only a small portion of the total health care expenditure. The rising demand from the aging population and health care costs will continue to put pressure on all physicians and society. The changes in the sources of payment and managed care will directly affect the economics of a physician's practice.

  17. Organization and Finance of China's Health Sector: Historical Antecedents for Macroeconomic Structural Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hui; Hilsenrath, Peter

    2016-01-01

    China has exploded onto the world economy over the past few decades and is undergoing rapid transformation toward relatively more services. The health sector is an important part of this transition. This article provides a historical account of the development of health care in China since 1949. It also focuses on health insurance and macroeconomic structural adjustment to less saving and more consumption. In particular, the question of how health insurance impacts precautionary savings is considered. Multivariate analysis using data from 1990 to 2012 is employed. The household savings rate is the dependent variable in 3 models segmented for rural and urban populations. Independent variables include out-of-pocket health expenditures, health insurance payouts, housing expenditure, education expenditure, and consumption as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). Out-of-pocket health expenditures were positively correlated with household savings rates. But health insurance remains weak, and increased payouts by health insurers have not been associated with lower levels of household savings so far. Housing was positively correlated, whereas education had a negative association with savings rates. This latter finding was unexpected. Perhaps education is perceived as investment and a substitute for savings. China's shift toward a more service-oriented economy includes growing dependence on the health sector. Better health insurance is an important part of this evolution. The organization and finance of health care is integrally linked with macroeconomic policy in an environment constrained by prevailing institutional convention. Problems of agency relationships, professional hegemony, and special interest politics feature prominently, as they do elsewhere. China also has a dual approach to medicine relying heavily on providers of traditional Chinese medicine. Both of these segments will take part in China's evolution, adding another layer of complexity to policy. © The

  18. The Macroeconomic Impact of Ebola Virus Disease (Evd: A Contribution to the Empirics of Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obukohwo Oba Efayena

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper addressed the formulation of a macro model to capture the macroeconomic impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD. Previous studies has adopted various models such as the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model, endogenous model and the LINKAGE model, but there is dire need to generate a step-by-step model which will comprehensively capture how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD impacts on macroeconomic variables. Adopting the traditional neoclassical growth model, the model aggregated the various macroeconomic variables as well as captured the epidemic’s strain on each of these variables. The paper also empirically shows that the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD has direct, indirect and deferred indirect cost implications for the economy. Using case studies of countries in Africa, the study evaluated how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD has affected the macroeconomic status of selected economies. The findings imply that there is dire need to control the spread of the deadly plague. The paper contribute immensely to empirical studies in the field of macroeconomics.

  19. How Can Macroeconomic Control Be Improved?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈佳贵

    2007-01-01

    Ⅰ.New macroeconomic controls not fully realised China introduced a new set of macroeconomic controls in 2004 in an attempt to control excessive growth.Due to the impact of the Asian Financial Crisis, China’s economy grew at a low growth rate between 1998 and 2001.However it accelerated from 2002 onwards,and saw a GDP increase of 11%in the fourth quarler of 2003,a historical high since 1997 Investment

  20. Essays in international macroeconomics and monetary policy

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Qianying

    2011-01-01

    This thesis consists of four chapters. Each chapter covers a topic in international macroeconomics and monetary policy. The first chapter investigates the impact of unexpected monetary policy shocks on exchange rates in a multi-country econometric model. The second chapter examines the linkage between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates through the monetary policy expectation channel. The third chapter focuses on the international transmission of bank and corporate distress. The las...

  1. Macroeconomic fluctuations and bank behavior in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge E. Restrepo

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to analyze bank behavior in Chile over time, looking at how their balance sheets and performance move both in the short and long run, and how they react to macroeconomic shocks. The evolution of banking aggregates over an 18 year period (1989-2006, using quarterly data is examined. Techniques common in the real business cycle literature are applied to establish empirical patterns. Robustness tests using several filters are performed. The effects of macro shocks on banking variables are analyzed, both by means of an event study, and by estimating impulse responses with VARs. The results show that credit lags the cycle, demand deposits lead it, both being procyclical, while the capital adequacy ratio (CAR is countercyclical. In addition, a shock to interest rates reduces loans (total, commercial, consumption, and increases non performing loans (NPL and the capital adequacy ratio (CAR. A shock to GDP growth has a positive effect on loans, return over equity (ROE, and a negative impact on NPL and CAR.

  2. Modeling of Macroeconomics by a Novel Discrete Nonlinear Fractional Dynamical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Hu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new nonlinear economic system with fractional derivative. According to the Jumarie’s definition of fractional derivative, we obtain a discrete fractional nonlinear economic system. Three variables, the gross domestic production, inflation, and unemployment rate, are considered by this nonlinear system. Based on the concrete macroeconomic data of USA, the coefficients of this nonlinear system are estimated by the method of least squares. The application of discrete fractional economic model with linear and nonlinear structure is shown to illustrate the efficiency of modeling the macroeconomic data with discrete fractional dynamical system. The empirical study suggests that the nonlinear discrete fractional dynamical system can describe the actual economic data accurately and predict the future behavior more reasonably than the linear dynamic system. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to investigate other macroeconomic variables of more states.

  3. Long Run Relationship between Macroeconomic Indicators and Stock Price: The Case of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawtari FA

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the long-term equilibrium between South Africa’s stock index and selected macroeconomic variables using vector error-correction models (VECM. Upon testing for co-integration, long run structural equation modelling (LRSM and VECM, the results indicate that industrial production is the most important determinant of stock market prices. This suggests that South Africa’s stock market is highly sensitive to the country’s industrial production. Money supply, inflation, and exchange rates are other determinants of South Africa’s stock index but to a lesser extent than industrial production. The study found that the macroeconomic variables comprising industrial production, inflation, money supply, and exchange rate are co-integrated on the long run with stock market prices. These findings have implications for policy makers in the sense that any changes in the macroeconomic policy should take into consideration the impact of such changes on the stock market.

  4. Using the Student Research Project to Integrate Macroeconomics and Statistics in an Advanced Cost Accounting Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Mahamood M.; Schwartz, Bill N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper discusses a student research project that is part of an advanced cost accounting class. The project emphasizes active learning, integrates cost accounting with macroeconomics and statistics by "learning by doing" using real world data. Students analyze sales data for a publicly listed company by focusing on the company's…

  5. Black strings from minimal geometric deformation in a variable tension brane-world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadio, R.; Ovalle, J.; da Rocha, Roldão

    2014-02-01

    We study brane-world models with variable brane tension and compute corrections to the horizon of a black string along the extra dimension. The four-dimensional geometry of the black string on the brane is obtained by means of the minimal geometric deformation approach, and the bulk corrections are then encoded in additional terms involving the covariant derivatives of the variable brane tension. Our investigation shows that the variable brane tension strongly affects the shape and evolution of the black string horizon along the extra dimension, at least in a near-brane expansion. In particular, we apply our general analysis to a model motivated by the Eötvös branes, where the variable brane tension is related to the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker brane-world cosmology. We show that for some stages in the evolution of the universe, the black string warped horizon collapses to a point and the black string has correspondingly finite extent along the extra dimension. Furthermore, we show that in the minimal geometric deformation of a black hole on the variable tension brane, the black string has a throat along the extra dimension, whose area tends to zero as time goes to infinity.

  6. The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Implications for Teaching Intermediate Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froyen, Richard T.

    1996-01-01

    Traces the development of macroeconomic theory from John Maynard Keynes to modern endogenous growth theory. Maintains that a combination of interest in growth theory and related policy questions will play a prominent role in macroeconomics in the future. Recommends narrowing the gap between graduate school and undergraduate economics instruction.…

  7. Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanasković Svetozar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse macroeconomic and institutional empirical determinants of growth of NPL ratios. Research is focused on selected CEEC and SEE countries in the period 2006- 2013. For our analysis we use static panel model approach with the logarithm of share of NPLs to total loans as a dependent variable. As independent variables we used a combination of country-specific macroeconomic and financial indicators which are commonly used in reference literature, as well as relevant institutional variables. Our results show that there is a negative relationship between increases in GDP and rise of the NPL ratio. Along with GDP, foreign currency loans ratio and level of exchange rate are positively related with the increase of NPL ratio. This confirms the expectation that countries where domestic currency is not the main medium of credit placements will have larger problems with the level of NPLs, which is even more pronounced in periods of domestic currency depreciation. In the presented models, the inflation rate is reported as statistically insignificant for sample countries. In the group of institutional variables, only financial market level of development is reported as statistically significant in relation to the level of NPL - with a more developed financial market the level of NPLs should be lower.

  8. Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates

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    Piotr Białowolski

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely: the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price inflation. In order to select the set of the best regressors, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators (BACE is employed. The models are atheoretical (i.e. they do not reflect causal relationships postulated by the macroeconomic theory and the role of regressors is played by business and consumer tendency survey-based indicators. Additionally, survey-based indicators are included with a lag that enables to forecast the variables of interest (GDP, unemployment, and inflation for the four forthcoming quarters without the need to make any additional assumptions concerning the values of predictor variables in the forecast period.  Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators is a method allowing for full and controlled overview of all econometric models which can be obtained out of a particular set of regressors. In this paper authors describe the method of generating a family of econometric models and the procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out-of-sample forecasts of main economic variables for the quarters of 2011. The accuracy of the forecasts implies that there is still a need to search for new solutions in the atheoretical modelling.

  9. Macroeconomic instability: its causes and consequences for the economy of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia SKOROBOGATOVA

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the concepts of appearance and elimination of macroeconomic instability, and the Keynesian approach for overcoming issues in Ukraine’s macroeconomic instability. Based on the Ukraine Statistics Service and World Bank data, Ukraine's economy tendencies have been defined: the country has not reached the pre-crisis economic level. The article identifies the reasons of negative balance payments and budget deficit: a decrease in production value, negative trade balance, growth of foreign creditor’s debt, currency instability, an increase in budget spending. The dynamics of income and expenditure within Ukraine budget has been analyzed, and also the destructiveness of existing approaches for the main financial documents has been grounded. Considering Ukraine’s economic and political situation, the main causes of macroeconomic instability are systematized. Government-implemented approaches for overcoming the macroeconomic instability have been suggested. The article introduces an approach for minimizing the negative effects on businesses, based on the timely identification of macroeconomic risks in terms of internal and external management. The possible negative impacts in case the timely decisions are not implemented have been assessed.

  10. Job satisfaction in the European union: the role of macroeconomic, personal, and job-related factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augner, Christoph

    2015-03-01

    Job satisfaction is influenced by many factors. Most of them are attributed to personality or company features. Little research has been conducted identifying the relationship of job satisfaction with macroeconomic parameters. We used data collected by European Commission (Eurostat, Eurofound) and World Health Organization (WHO) for personal (eg, subjective health, physical activity), company (eg, career advancement perspectives, negative health effects of work), or macroeconomic parameters (eg, Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate) on state level. Correlation analysis and a stepwise linear regression model were obtained. Gross domestic product (GDP) was the best predictor for job satisfaction across the European Union member states ahead of good career perspectives, and WHO-5 score (depressive symptoms). Beside personal, job-related, and organizational factors that influence job satisfaction, the macroeconomic perspective has to be considered, too.

  11. Black Strings from Minimal Geometric Deformation in a Variable Tension Brane-World

    CERN Document Server

    Casadio, Roberto; da Rocha, Roldao

    2013-01-01

    We study brane-world models with variable brane tension and compute corrections to the horizon of a black string along the extra dimension. The four-dimensional geometry of the black string on the brane is obtained by means of the minimal geometric deformation approach, and the bulk corrections are then encoded in additional terms involving the covariant derivatives of the variable brane tension. Our investigation shows that the variable brane tension strongly affects the shape and evolution of the black string horizon along the extra dimension, at least in a near-brane expansion. In particular, we apply our general analysis to a model motivated by the E\\"otv\\"os branes, where the variable brane tension is related to the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker brane-world cosmology. We show that for some stages in the evolution of the universe, the black string warped horizon collapses to a point and the black string has correspondingly finite extent along the extra dimension. Furthermore, we show that in the minimal geom...

  12. On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giovannelli, Alessandro; Proietti, Tommaso

    We address the problem of selecting the common factors that are relevant for forecasting macroeconomic variables. In economic forecasting using diffusion indexes the factors are ordered, according to their importance, in terms of relative variability, and are the same for each variable to predict...... on the ordering of the components, based on weighting the p-values according to the eigenvalues associated to the components. We compare the empirical performance of these methods with the classical diffusion index (DI) approach proposed by Stock and Watson, conducting a pseudo-real time forecasting exercise...... factors. However, variable selection, leading to exclude some of the low order principal components, can lead to a sizable improvement in forecasting in specific cases. Only in one instance, real personal income, we were able to detect a significant contribution from high order components....

  13. Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Mashrur Mustaque; Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek

    2013-01-01

    The study examines the influence of a selective set of macroeconomic forces on stock market prices in Bangladesh. The Dhaka Stock Exchange All-Share Price Index (DSI) is used to represent the prices in the stock market while deposit interest rates, exchange rates, consumer price index (CPI), crude oil prices and broad money supply (M2) are selected to represent the macroeconomic variables affecting the stock prices. Using monthly data from 1992m1-2011m6, several time-series techniques were us...

  14. Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hegerty Scott W.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.

  15. Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deger Alper

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of the banks profitability in Turkey over the time period from 2002 to 2010. The bank profitability is measured by return on assets (ROA and return on equity (ROE as a function of bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants. Using a balanced panel data set, the results show that asset size and non-interest income have a positive and significant effect on bank profitability. However, size of credit portfolio and loans under follow-up have a negative and significant impact on bank profitability. With regard to macroeconomic variables, only the real interest rate affects the performance of banks positively. These results suggest that banks can improve their profitability through increasing bank size and non-interest income, decreasing credit/asset ratio. In addition, higher real interest rate can lead to higher bank profitability.

  16. Exchange-rate determination : is there a role for macroeconomic fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews recent trends in exchange rate modelling with a view toward assessing new claims that macroeconomic variables are useful for explaining exchange rates. The application to co-integration techniques and the use of larger datasets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both

  17. The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pramod Kumar NAIK

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables and the stock market index are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the stock prices positively relate to the money supply and industrial production but negatively relate to inflation. The exchange rate and the short-term interest rate are found to be insignificant in determining stock prices. In the Granger causality sense, macroeconomic variable causes the stock prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. There is bidirectional causality exists between industrial production and stock prices whereas, unidirectional causality from money supply to stock price, stock price to inflation and interest rates to stock prices are found.

  18. Macroeconomic policy, growth, and biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawn, Philip

    2008-12-01

    To successfully achieve biodiversity conservation, the amount of ecosystem structure available for economic production must be determined by, and subject to, conservation needs. As such, the scale of economic systems must remain within the limits imposed by the need to preserve critical ecosystems and the regenerative and waste assimilative capacities of the ecosphere. These limits are determined by biophysical criteria, yet macroeconomics involves the use of economic instruments designed to meet economic criteria that have no capacity to achieve biophysically based targets. Macroeconomic policy cannot, therefore, directly solve the biodiversity erosion crisis. Nevertheless, good macroeconomic policy is still important given that bad macroeconomy policy is likely to reduce human well-being and increase the likelihood of social upheaval that could undermine conservation efforts.

  19. PHENOMENA AND BASIC MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR MEASUREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAULINA CATANA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Macroeconomics is a separate discipline of the Economy that studies and analyzes the behaviour of economic aggregates and significant average, such as price level, national income, national income potential, the gap GDP, employment and unemployment of labour, investment and export of the whole economy. We can accuse to Macroeconomics that it deals also with the average price of all goods and services, not the prices of certain products. These aggregates result from economic behaviour of certain groups (governments, companies, consumers in the course of their activities on different markets. But why does it need Macroeconomics? Experts say that we need this separate discipline because there are certain forces that affect the broader economy globally, which can not be understood only by analyzing individual economic phenomena, individual products or markets.

  20. Analysis Of Japans Economy Based On 2014 From Macroeconomics Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Mohammad Rafiqul Islam

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Japan is the worlds third largest economy. But currently economic situations of Japan are not stable. It is not increasing as expected. Since 2013 it was world second largest economy but Japan loosed its placed to China in 2014 due to slow growth of important economic indicators. By using the basic Keynesian model we will provide a detailed analysis of the short and long run impacts of the changes for Japans real GDP rate of unemployment and inflation rate. We demonstrated a detailed use of the 45-degree diagram or the AD-IA model and other economic analysis of the macroeconomic principles that underlie the model and concepts. Finally we will recommend the government with a change in fiscal policy what based on the analysis by considering what might be achieved with a fiscal policy response and the extent to which any impact on the stock of public debt might be a consideration

  1. Reconstructing Macroeconomics Based on Statistical Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Masanao; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

    We believe that time has come to integrate the new approach based on statistical physics or econophysics into macroeconomics. Toward this goal, there must be more dialogues between physicists and economists. In this paper, we argue that there is no reason why the methods of statistical physics so successful in many fields of natural sciences cannot be usefully applied to macroeconomics that is meant to analyze the macroeconomy comprising a large number of economic agents. It is, in fact, weird to regard the macroeconomy as a homothetic enlargement of the representative micro agent. We trust the bright future of the new approach to macroeconomies based on statistical physics.

  2. Bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty: Evidence from Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansor H. Ibrahim

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the interrelations between bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty for an emerging economy, Malaysia. Adopting time series techniques of cointegration, causality and vector autoregressions (VARs, we arrive at the following main results. We note long run positive relations between real output and both real bank credits and real stock prices. However, with slow adjustment of real output in responses to credit expansion or stock price increase and weak exogeneity of the latter two variables, both credits and stock prices can be persistently higher than their fundamental values. The phenomenon can be detrimental since it heightens market uncertainty. Our results suggest that heightened market uncertainty is negatively related to output in the long run and, on the basis of dynamics analysis, it is likely to depress real output, real credit and real stock prices. At the same time, we note significant dynamic impacts of interest rate shocks on other variables. Taken together, these results have important implications for macroeconomic performance and stability for the case of Malaysia.

  3. The Readability of Principles of Macroeconomics Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinkler, Sarah; Woods, James

    2013-01-01

    The authors evaluated principles of macroeconomics textbooks for readability using Coh-Metrix, a computational linguistics tool. Additionally, they conducted an experiment on Amazon's Mechanical Turk Web site in which participants ranked the readability of text samples. There was a wide range of scores on readability indexes both among…

  4. Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations in macroeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Massaro

    2012-01-01

    This thesis studies the effect of individual bounded rationality on aggregate macroeconomic dynamics. Boundedly rational agents are specified as using simple heuristics in their decision making. An important aspect of the type of bounded rationality described in this thesis is that the population of

  5. Macroeconomics and Human Development, by Deepak Nayyar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiana Ioana ŞERBĂNEL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Microeconomics and Human Development pursue to tackle both negative and positive effects of macroeconomics on human development and vice-versa through a series of external and internal factors. The book consists in a series of articles published in a prestigious publication: Journal of Human Development and Capabilities. The authors have a perennial echo in the economic field.

  6. Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Jon Devin

    2012-01-01

    The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

  7. Do Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymetric Volatility?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. de Goeij (Peter); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we study the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on the conditional volatility of stock and bond returns. Using daily returns on the S&P 500 index, the NASDAQ index, and the 1 and 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds, for January 1982 - August 2001, some interesting results e

  8. The Readability of Principles of Macroeconomics Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinkler, Sarah; Woods, James

    2013-01-01

    The authors evaluated principles of macroeconomics textbooks for readability using Coh-Metrix, a computational linguistics tool. Additionally, they conducted an experiment on Amazon's Mechanical Turk Web site in which participants ranked the readability of text samples. There was a wide range of scores on readability indexes both among…

  9. Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Jon Devin

    2012-01-01

    The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

  10. Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Residential Property ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sultan

    of macroeconomic on real estate pricing in. Greece between 1981-1999 and ... multi-equation regression analysis to model the bi-causal ... Abuja is the capital city of Nigeria. Abuja is selected for ..... Joshi, H. (2006). Identifying the asset price.

  11. Public Service Employment as Macroeconomic Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baily, Martin N.; Solow, Robert M.

    1979-01-01

    Authors assert that public service employment (PSE) is one form of macroeconomic policy and compare PSE to tax reduction, federal subsidies, and other forms. They propose a design for an ongoing federal employment program and conclude that a PSE program aimed at the structurally unemployed creates more jobs per GNP dollar than other policies. (SK)

  12. Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Bennett T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

  13. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

  14. Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smeekes, Stephan; Wijler, Etiënne

    2016-01-01

    We study the suitability of lasso-type penalized regression techniques when applied to macroeconomic forecasting with high-dimensional datasets. We consider performance of the lasso-type methods when the true DGP is a factor model, contradicting the sparsity assumption underlying penalized regressio

  15. New Classical and New Keynesian Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vane, Howard; Snowdon, Brian

    1992-01-01

    Summarizes underlying tenets and policy implications of new classical and new Keynesian macroeconomics. Compares new approaches with orthodox Keynesian and monetarist schools of thought. Identifies the fundamental difference between new classical and new Keynesian models as the assumption regarding the speed of wage and price adjustment following…

  16. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

  17. Macroeconomic Dynamics of Assets, Leverage and Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozendaal, Jeroen C.; Malevergne, Yannick; Sornette, Didier

    A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of economic growth, and how credit may be associated with both economic performance and confidence. Our first notable finding is the mechanism of reward/penalty associated with patience, as quantified by the return on assets. In regular economies where the EBITA/Assets ratio is larger than the cost of debt, starting with a trust higher than leverage results in the highest long-term return on assets (which can be seen as a proxy for economic growth). Therefore, patient economies that first build trust and then increase leverage are positively rewarded. Our second main finding concerns a recommendation for the reaction of a central bank to an external shock that affects negatively the economic growth. We find that late policy intervention in the model economy results in the highest long-term return on assets. However, this comes at the cost of suffering longer from the crisis until the intervention occurs. The phenomenon that late intervention is most effective to attain a high long-term return on assets can be ascribed to the fact that postponing intervention allows trust to increase first, and it is most effective to intervene when trust is high. These results are derived from two fundamental assumptions underlying our model: (a) trust tends to increase when it is above leverage; (b) economic agents learn optimally to adjust debt for a given level of trust and amount of assets. Using a Markov Switching Model for the EBITA/Assets ratio, we have successfully calibrated our model to the empirical data of the return on equity of the EURO STOXX 50 for the time period 2000-2013. We find that dynamics of leverage and trust can be highly nonmonotonous with curved trajectories, as a result of the nonlinear coupling between the variables. This

  18. On the importance of macroeconomic factors for the foreign student’s decision to stay in the host country

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vasiljeva, Kristine

    The paper tests empirically whether the macroeconomic variables suggested by migration theories have a significant impact on the foreign student’s decision to stay in their host country. The analysis is based on the combination of country level variables and individual register data. The mean...

  19. A study on macroeconomic cost of CCS in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji-Whan; Kim, Yoon Kyung

    2015-04-01

    CCS is an important measure for mitigating the problem of World Climate Change and already several projects are entered the step of commercialization. The benefits of CCS implementation ultimately depends on the alleviation level of CO2 on earth because it is caused by the mitigation of the World Climate Change problem. Thus it is possible not to coincide at same time between starting the CCS and getting the benefits. Considering the high costs of CCS, the time mismatch between imposing the costs and getting the benefits is apt to impose some heavy burden on the individual national economy. For this reason, at the political decision-making, the policy makers should consider the macroeconomic effects. Meanwhile, Korean electricity market's supply side is comprised of competitive production and a sole distributor(public enterprise) and then electricity is supplied by a single price structure(administered pricing). Under this condition, if CCS is introduced to power setor, electric charges must be increased and production costs will go high. High production costs will have unfavourable effects on disposable income, price level, purchasing power and so on. In order to minimize these effects, policy makers have to consider the economic effects of introducing CCS. This study estimates the microscopic cost of CCS using ICCSEM 2.0 methodology made by CO2CRC and after that, the macroeconomic effects of introducing CCS is estimated on the basis of microscopic cost estimating results. The macroeconomic effects of CCS applied to Power Generation sector are estimated using macroeconometrics model and Input-Output analysis. A macroeconometrics model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the national economy. This model is usually applied to examine the dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, the level of prices and so forth. Introducing

  20. Granger Causality between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Plíhal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate informational efficiency of the stock market in Germany. Granger causality between the stock market and the selected macroeconomic variables is investigated by bivariate analysis using Toda-Yamamoto (1995 approach. This study focuses on monthly data from January 1999 to September 2015, and the stock market is represented by blue chip stock market index DAX. Investigated macroeconomic indicators include industrial production, inflation, money supply, interest rate, trade balance and exchange rate. Stock market Granger-causes industrial production and interest rate, and is therefore leading indicator of these variables. Between money supply and stock prices is Granger causality in both directions. Other variables seem to be independent on development of the stock market. We do not find any violation of Efficient market hypothesis which indicates that the stock market in Germany is informational efficient.

  1. Convergence, divergence and realignment in British macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. COBHAM

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the author argues that the still frequent and simplistic distinction between Keynesians and monetarists that makes up a large part of the British popular economic debate has become seriously misleading. Changes that have taken place in British macroeconomics since the early 1970s are thus indicated and some of the theoretical and empirical factors responsible for these changes are suggested. The author presents a brief characterisation of British Keynesianism and monetarism as of late 1960s/early 1970s, arguing that there have been important elements of convergence. He proceeds to discuss some of the theoretical developments and some of the experiences of UK macroeconomic policy which have contributed to this convergence. Finally, he considers whether the labels “Keynesian” and “monetarist” continue to be relevant.

  2. The new-classical contribution to macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. LAIDLER

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to assessing New-Classical ideas, and to asking what of lasting importance this school of macroeconomics has contributed since the early 1970s. It deals in turn with the relationship between New-Classical Economics and Monetarism, the relative explanatory power of these two bodies of doctrine over empirical evidence, and the claims of New-Classical Economics to embody a superior analytic method. The author argues that, although the particular ways in which New-Classical Macroeconomics has applied its basic ideas are unnecessarily restrictive, its stress on equilibrium behaviour conditioned by the state of individual agents’ expectations as a basis for macro modelling is nevertheless valuable.  

  3. THE USE OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES – AS THE WAY TO GET OVER MACRO-ECONOMIC IMBALANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khmelnitsky L.Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes major groups of current macroeconomic risks. Major challenges of modern world energy development are described and the spotlight on renewable energy sources as one of mechanisms of the described problems solution. Major requirements applied to government support schemes for renewable energy development are stated as well.

  4. Macroeconomic Scenarios and Reality : A Frequency Domain Approach for Analyzing Historical Time Series and Generating Scenarios for the Future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steehouwer, H.

    2005-01-01

    Macroeconomic scenarios are an important component of Asset and Liability Management (ALM) models as used by financial institutions around the world such as pension funds and insurance companies to support important strategic policy decisions, for example on the optimal strategic asset allocation.

  5. Macroeconomics correlations focused on foreign direct investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodora ALECU

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This article is meant to reveal the way in which the theory of interconnections between systems and sub-systems partici-pating to the creation of economic value, which have been described by professor Paul Bran in his book Economics of Value is outlined in practice and how its analysis may help us to control the effects of the policies applied at the level of each macroeconomic sub-system.

  6. Labor search and matching in macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    The labor search and matching model plays a growing role in macroeconomic analysis. This paper provides a critical, selective survey of the literature. Four fundamental questions are explored: how are unemployment, job vacancies, and employment determined as equilibrium phenomena? What determines worker flows and transition rates from one labor market state to another? How are wages determined? What role do labor market dynamics play in explaining business cycles and growth? The survey descri...

  7. Expectations and macroeconomics: learning and loose commitment

    OpenAIRE

    Nunes, Ricardo

    2007-01-01

    The three chapters of this thesis analyze different issues regarding the role of expectations in macroeconomics. The first two chapters consider that private economic agents can either be rational and forward looking or may actually need to use past data to learn how to form expectations. The first two chapters try to describe and estimate the different dynamics that these two types of expectation mechanisms induce. The third chapter analyzes the interaction between policy makers and forward-...

  8. Macroeconomic level of technology transfer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnova Nadezhda

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available World practice of economic management has proved that the best indicator of competitiveness is achieved by that economic system, the economic units of which timely and adequately update the resource and technical base, thus achieving higher financial and economic indicators. Ensuring that sustainable development becomes possible due to the transfer of technological innovations, namely the diffusion from the developer to the customer on both commercial and free of charge basis. The article focuses on functioning of technology transfer at the macro level, namely the creation of its domestic models.

  9. Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Ferhat I.

    My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

  10. THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE MOVEMENT OF CROBEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojan Tomic

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Many research showed a high degree of correlation between the US and European capital markets, partly due to industrial‒financial linkages of the United States and Europe, and partly due to the influence of psychological factors on the behavior of individuals, and the concept of behavioral finance. However, it can be assumed that the movement of the value of an observed index does not depend solely on the change of values of the S & P 500 index. Accordingly and in line with rational economic theory, this paper examines the link between changes in the value of selected macroeconomic indicators and the value of the main share Croatian capital market index CROBEX. The results indicate that of the nine initially observed variables, movement of CROBEX can be described and further explained by changes in the value of average wages, parity rate and dollar, the kuna and the euro and the kuna and the Swiss franc.

  11. Budget Deficit and Macroeconomics Fundamentals: The case of Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahnim Farajova

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the emergence of rising budget deficit is the main reason forcing economists to investigate the reasons for changes in fiscal balances. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between budget deficit and macroeconomic fundamentals using data from Azerbaijan. The empirical analysis applies ARDL Cointegration methodology in conjunction with Granger causality tests to provide evidence for both the long and short run dynamics between the variables involved in the analysis. Using the Error Correction specification, there was found evidence of long-run causality running from current account, real interest rate, GDP, inflation and exchange rate to budget deficit. There was also found evidence of short-run Granger causal effects running from current account and real interest rate towards budget deficit and a rather weak causal effect from inflation to budget deficit. However, there is no short – run causality running from interest rate to budget deficit.

  12. An empirical evaluation of macroeconomic surveillance in the European Union

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The EU's macroeconomic surveillance mechanism, namely the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP), is based on the so-called Scoreboard, which comprises a set of indicators that serve as a signalling device for potentially harmful macroeconomic developments. We first evaluate the early warning properties of the Scoreboard indicators with regard to financial crises. We then analyze the role of emerging crisis signals from the Scoreboard for the subsequent steps of the MIP (In-Depth Reviews), i...

  13. Decisions and macroeconomics: development and implementation of a simulation game

    OpenAIRE

    Woltjer, G.B.

    2003-01-01

    “Steer the economy” is an interactive game that shows the relationship between company decisions and macroeconomic dynamics. In this real time computer network simulation game the interaction between the players determines the macroeconomic results and players see within a short period the long-term consequences of their strategic decisions.For a lot of students macroeconomics is very abstract. It is difficult for them to imagine that the theories are fundamentally about the coordination of h...

  14. Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wei

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Using annual data from 1997–2014 of 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, subdividing trended and cyclical volatility of macroeconomics and inflation, considering different indicators of financial development and financial structure, this paper investigated the impact of financial development and financial structure on macroeconomic volatility. The empirical results found that (1 the trended and cyclical volatility of the previous macroeconomic period had a significantly positive impact on that of the current period, and the impact of trended volatility was greater than that of cyclical volatility; (2 financial development had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility through inflation cyclical volatility, but inflation trended volatility would amplify macroeconomic volatility; financial markets have no significant effect on macroeconomic volatility; financial structure measured with the ratio of stock market turnover and the efficiency of the financial development had a significant positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility; and (3 inflation trended volatility had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility and trended volatility, while inflation cyclical volatility had a significantly positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility.

  15. Demographics and genetic variability of the new world bollworm (Helicoverpa zea) and the old world bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, Natália A; Alves-Pereira, Alessandro; Corrêa, Alberto S; Zucchi, Maria I; Omoto, Celso

    2014-01-01

    Helicoverpa armigera is one of the primary agricultural pests in the Old World, whereas H. zea is predominant in the New World. However, H. armigera was first documented in Brazil in 2013. Therefore, the geographical distribution, range of hosts, invasion source, and dispersal routes for H. armigera are poorly understood or unknown in Brazil. In this study, we used a phylogeographic analysis of natural H. armigera and H. zea populations to (1) assess the occurrence of both species on different hosts; (2) infer the demographic parameters and genetic structure; (3) determine the potential invasion and dispersal routes for H. armigera within the Brazilian territory; and (4) infer the geographical origin of H. armigera. We analyzed partial sequence data from the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene. We determined that H. armigera individuals were most prevalent on dicotyledonous hosts and that H. zea were most prevalent on maize crops, based on the samples collected between May 2012 and April 2013. The populations of both species showed signs of demographic expansion, and no genetic structure. The high genetic diversity and wide distribution of H. armigera in mid-2012 are consistent with an invasion period prior to the first reports of this species in the literature and/or multiple invasion events within the Brazilian territory. It was not possible to infer the invasion and dispersal routes of H. armigera with this dataset. However, joint analyses using sequences from the Old World indicated the presence of Chinese, Indian, and European lineages within the Brazilian populations of H. armigera. These results suggest that sustainable management plans for the control of H. armigera will be challenging considering the high genetic diversity, polyphagous feeding habits, and great potential mobility of this pest on numerous hosts, which favor the adaptation of this insect to diverse environments and control strategies.

  16. Demographics and genetic variability of the new world bollworm (Helicoverpa zea and the old world bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natália A Leite

    Full Text Available Helicoverpa armigera is one of the primary agricultural pests in the Old World, whereas H. zea is predominant in the New World. However, H. armigera was first documented in Brazil in 2013. Therefore, the geographical distribution, range of hosts, invasion source, and dispersal routes for H. armigera are poorly understood or unknown in Brazil. In this study, we used a phylogeographic analysis of natural H. armigera and H. zea populations to (1 assess the occurrence of both species on different hosts; (2 infer the demographic parameters and genetic structure; (3 determine the potential invasion and dispersal routes for H. armigera within the Brazilian territory; and (4 infer the geographical origin of H. armigera. We analyzed partial sequence data from the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI gene. We determined that H. armigera individuals were most prevalent on dicotyledonous hosts and that H. zea were most prevalent on maize crops, based on the samples collected between May 2012 and April 2013. The populations of both species showed signs of demographic expansion, and no genetic structure. The high genetic diversity and wide distribution of H. armigera in mid-2012 are consistent with an invasion period prior to the first reports of this species in the literature and/or multiple invasion events within the Brazilian territory. It was not possible to infer the invasion and dispersal routes of H. armigera with this dataset. However, joint analyses using sequences from the Old World indicated the presence of Chinese, Indian, and European lineages within the Brazilian populations of H. armigera. These results suggest that sustainable management plans for the control of H. armigera will be challenging considering the high genetic diversity, polyphagous feeding habits, and great potential mobility of this pest on numerous hosts, which favor the adaptation of this insect to diverse environments and control strategies.

  17. THE ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT FOR EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES IN 2009

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The scope of our article is to analyze the characteristics of the actual economic and financial crisis in the EU-27, in the year 2009. We use macroeconomic variables that compose economic macro-stabilization pentagon – the real growth rate of gross domestic product, the rate of inflation, the rate of unemployment, the public conventional deficit over GDP, the public debt over GDP, the current account deficit over GDP.

  18. Optimal control and optimal trajectories of regional macroeconomic dynamics based on the Pontryagin maximum principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulgakov, V. K.; Strigunov, V. V.

    2009-05-01

    The Pontryagin maximum principle is used to prove a theorem concerning optimal control in regional macroeconomics. A boundary value problem for optimal trajectories of the state and adjoint variables is formulated, and optimal curves are analyzed. An algorithm is proposed for solving the boundary value problem of optimal control. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated by computing an optimal control and the corresponding optimal trajectories.

  19. The relationship between macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators and workrelated injuries among Danish construction workers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kent Jacob; Lander, F.; Lauritsen, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The current study examines and compares the relationship between both macroeconomic and industry-specific business cycle indicators, and work-related injuries among construction workers in Denmark using emergency department (ED) injury data and also officially reported injuries...... to the Danish Working Environment Authority (WEA). Methods The correlations between ED and WEA injury data from the catchment area of Odense University Hospital during the period 1984–2010 were tested separately for variability and trend with two general macroeconomic indicators (gross domestic product...

  20. An Analysis of Economic Growth, Competitiveness and Macroeconomic Imbalances in the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Hurduzeu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Taking into consideration the determinants of the economic crisis and of the sovereign debt crisis, we aim to analyze the dynamics of the European economies and discuss changes related to macroeconomic imbalances, as highlighted by the recent crises as an important factor of the unfavorable dynamics registered during the last years. In this respect we considered both internal and external imbalances, as specified in the macroeconomic imbalance procedure that was implemented for the European Union member states since 2012, as a response to the crises that affected all open economies of the world. The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of economic imbalances in the European Union and to determine their influence on economic growth.

  1. Macroeconomic effects of international regional economic integration: global practice and challenges for Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliia Fedirko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article the causes and macroeconomic peculiarities of the formation and operation of international regional economic associations of various forms have been studied. A hierarchical classification of modern international regional economic integration groups is presented. The contribution of the world’s largest integration groups to the global GDP has been analyzed. The main macroeconomic results of countries’ participation in integration associations of different forms on the pre-establishment and post-establishment stages have been described, the positive effects obtained by countries in the result of introduction of certain common economic activity conditions have been determined. Potential risks for Ukraine related to European Integration and prospective positive effects of integration into the world economy have been determined. Conceptual principles of state policy of blocking of the potential risks of international regional economic integration for Ukraine have been substantiated.

  2. A kinetic approach to some quasi-linear laws of macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gligor, M.; Ignat, M.

    2002-11-01

    Some previous works have presented the data on wealth and income distributions in developed countries and have found that the great majority of population is described by an exponential distribution, which results in idea that the kinetic approach could be adequate to describe this empirical evidence. The aim of our paper is to extend this framework by developing a systematic kinetic approach of the socio-economic systems and to explain how linear laws, modelling correlations between macroeconomic variables, may arise in this context. Firstly we construct the Boltzmann kinetic equation for an idealised system composed by many individuals (workers, officers, business men, etc.), each of them getting a certain income and spending money for their needs. To each individual a certain time variable amount of money is associated this meaning him/her phase space coordinate. In this way the exponential distribution of money in a closed economy is explicitly found. The extension of this result, including states near the equilibrium, give us the possibility to take into account the regular increase of the total amount of money, according to the modern economic theories. The Kubo-Green-Onsager linear response theory leads us to a set of linear equations between some macroeconomic variables. Finally, the validity of such laws is discussed in relation with the time reversal symmetry and is tested empirically using some macroeconomic time series.

  3. La ilusión científica en la macroeconomía empírica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Summers Lawrence H.

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available Muchos macroeconomistas y la mayoría de los econometristas creen y enseñan a sus estudiantes que 1 el trabajo empírico en macroeconomía debe dedicarse a identificar los ‘parámetros estructurales básicos’ que representan las preferencias y la tecnología; 2 el mejor trabajo empírico en macroeconomía prueba formalmente las hipótesis esenciales derivadas rigurosamente de la teoría económica; 3 las técnicas estadísticas sofisticadas pueden jugar un papel importante para determinar la causación en sistemas con muchas variables independientes. Estas creencias constituyen el núcleo de los que yo llamo la ilusión científica en la macroeconomía empírica.

  4. Essays on Macroeconomics and Oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakir, Nida

    In these essays, I examine (i) the empirical methods that are widely used in the literature to measure total factor productivity growth and (ii) the impact of nationalization on productivity in the oil industry. The first chapter, which is an ongoing work with SHI, Wei, investigates two empirical measures, quantity-based (primal) measure and price-based (dual) measure, of total factor productivity growth. My co-author and I analyze how these two measures are affected by output market imperfection or variable capacity utilization. We find that under constant-returns-to-scale production function assumption, existence of the imperfect competition in the output market creates a gap between the measured TFP growth and the true TFP growth, no matter which method is used. However, theoretically, it does not affect the equivalence between the two measures. Under variable capacity utilization, we show that constant-returns-to-scale assumption is almost enough to guarantee the validity of the two methods in correctly capturing the true TFP growth. In the second and third chapters, I analyze the link between nationalization and productivity. The second chapter documents the trends in expropriation acts, and evaluates the impact of expropriations on labor productivity of resource-rich developing countries in the oil industry. In the first part of this chapter, I investigate the trends in the expropriation acts that took place in 102 developing countries during the period 1922-2006. I find that more than half of the acts occurred between 1970 and 1976, there has been an increase in the number of expropriations in recent years, and the extractive sector including petroleum is more likely to be expropriated. Motivated by these facts, in the second part, I examine the oil industry in a period of widespread expropriations, the 1970s. In a sample of major oil-producing countries including OPEC and non-OPEC members, I show that losses in relative labor productivity after

  5. Three essays on the labour market macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Esta tesis Doctoral contiene tres ensayos sobre la macroeconomía del mercado de trabajo cuyo objetivo es contribuir al debate científico, y arrojar luz sobre la configuración del mercado laboral. Aunque estos tres capítulos deben de ser considerados como piezas de investigación independientes, su conjunto trata de clarificar el rol de la globalización, el sector financiero, y el ciclo económico en diferentes aspectos del mercado de trabajo. El primer capítulo estudia el rol de la globalizació...

  6. Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achdou, Yves; Buera, Francisco J; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis; Moll, Benjamin

    2014-11-13

    The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  7. Macroeconomic susceptibility, inflation, and aggregate supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Raymond J.

    2017-03-01

    We unify aggregate-supply dynamics as a time-dependent susceptibility-mediated relationship between inflation and aggregate economic output. In addition to representing well various observations of inflation-output dynamics this parsimonious formalism provides a straightforward derivation of popular representations of aggregate-supply dynamics and a natural basis for economic-agent expectations as an element of inflation formation. Our formalism also illuminates questions of causality and time-correlation that challenge central banks for whom aggregate-supply dynamics is a key constraint in their goal of achieving macroeconomic stability.

  8. GREEK ECONOMIC CRISIS ON MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GĂBAN LUCIAN

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to examine briefly some elements of macroeconomic aspects that could explain - at least partly - a number of causes of the current economic crisis in Greece. Using data provided by competent bodies, is intended as a more accurate outlining the differences between Greece and the other countries of the European Union member show widespread Greek State as an outlier among the countries that make up the current "U.E. 28 ". The analysis is based on three indicators relevant to the case – unemployment, government debt and nonperforming loans.

  9. Macroeconomic Stabilization When the Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

    2015-01-01

    The authors modify the Dynamic Aggregate Demand-Dynamic Aggregate Supply model in Mankiw's widely used intermediate macroeconomics textbook to discuss monetary policy when the natural real interest rate is falling over time. Their results highlight a new role for the central bank's inflation target as a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. They…

  10. Private consumption-savings behavior and macroeconomic imbalances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Castro Campos, M.

    2016-01-01

    Between the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1991 and 2007 many of the existing macroeconomic theories were applied to support the claim that the euro area was an optimal currency union and to argue that increasing macroeconomic imbalances were a logical part of the financial integration process.

  11. Macroeconomics in the Classroom--No Longer Just Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fair, Ray C.

    1985-01-01

    Describes features of a macroeconomics model that runs on a microcomputer and its solution, sometimes called a simulation. Specific uses of the model in the teaching of introductory and intermediate/advanced levels of macroeconomics are discussed, as well as use by economic planners in running alternative forecasts. (MBR)

  12. Macroeconomic Stabilization When the Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

    2015-01-01

    The authors modify the Dynamic Aggregate Demand-Dynamic Aggregate Supply model in Mankiw's widely used intermediate macroeconomics textbook to discuss monetary policy when the natural real interest rate is falling over time. Their results highlight a new role for the central bank's inflation target as a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. They…

  13. Intermediate Macroeconomics without the IS-LM Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weerapana, Akila

    2003-01-01

    States that the IS-LM model is the primary model of economic fluctuations taught in undergraduate macroeconomics. Argues that the aggregate demand-price adjustment (AD-PA) model is superior for teaching about economic fluctuations. Compares the IS-LS model with the AD-AP model using two current issues in macroeconomics. (JEH)

  14. Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kocenda, Evzen; Poghosyan, Tigran

    2009-01-01

    We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. We derive the observable macroeconomic factors-consumption and inflation-using the Stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange m

  15. Macroeconomic pressures and their implications for business development in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John

    2011-01-01

    The paper discusses the complex relationships between macroeconomic pressures, savings, investments and business development in Sub-Sahara African countries......The paper discusses the complex relationships between macroeconomic pressures, savings, investments and business development in Sub-Sahara African countries...

  16. STATE INTERVENTION AND MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljubiša Vladušić

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The monetarists are opponents of government intervention and supporters of free market processes. Keynesians are, conversely, supporters and advocates of government intervention and opponents of uncontrolled operation of the market mechanism. As opponents of government intervention, the monetarists do not agree that it should take countercyclical fiscal policy which can cause greater increase in expenditures of the public sector during the recession, but spending cuts in the period of expansion and that, consequently, the public expenditures continue to increase. However, Tobin, indicating a negative attitude, claims that inflation cannot be used as a reason to reduce the budget, if fiscal policy has little or no effect on income. Undesirability of countercyclical fiscal policy is a logical consequence of the monetarist views on the stability of the sector and better performance of the free market of government intervention in social reproduction. Rule on a constant rate of monetary expansion eliminates the need for conducting discretionary policy, as the Phillips curve, previously defined, does not allow an optimal combination of inflation and unemployment. Therefore, the use of money (and interest rates and bank loans, as the goal of monetary policy provides economic policy makers to focus on managing variability (i.e. concentrate to money supply, which is beyond the scope of operation of the market, on the one hand, and to let determining the interest rates of bank loans and the free market, on the other hand. Finally, monetarists are extremely concerned about the multiple connections between inflation and expansion of the public sector, for three reasons: first, inflation increases the share of the public sector (and exacts an increase in public expenditure, if a progressive tax system is functioning; second, combating inflation can only indirectly limit the expenditure of the public sector, as the government expenditures partly increase by

  17. THE MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MALAWI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Themba G. Chirwa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the main macroeconomic drivers of economic growth in Malawi. The drivers are identified by examining the various development plans and reforms that Malawi implemented during the period 1970-2011. The examination concludes that the main macroeconomic drivers of economic growth in Malawi during this period were the accumulation of physical capital, human capital development, international trade, inflation and the real exchange rate. The examination also shows that country-specific development policies and institutions are important in identifying and influencing the macroeconomic factors of growth. Although Malawi has been able to identify the factors that would contribute to sustainable economic growth in its development policies, these factors were influenced by a number of structural challenges, such as low investment rates, inadequate investment in human capital, balance-of-payment problems, macroeconomic instability, and frequent policy reversals in the implementation of macroeconomic reforms.

  18. Optimal Investment Control of Macroeconomic Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Ke-jie; LIU Chuan-zhe

    2006-01-01

    Economic growth is always accompanied by economic fluctuation. The target of macroeconomic control is to keep a basic balance of economic growth, accelerate the optimization of economic structures and to lead a rapid, sustainable and healthy development of national economies, in order to propel society forward. In order to realize the above goal, investment control must be regarded as the most important policy for economic stability. Readjustment and control of investment includes not only control of aggregate investment, but also structural control which depends on economic-technology relationships between various industries of a national economy. On the basis of the theory of a generalized system, an optimal investment control model for government has been developed. In order to provide a scientific basis for government to formulate a macroeconomic control policy, the model investigates the balance of total supply and aggregate demand through an adjustment in investment decisions realizes a sustainable and stable growth of the national economy. The optimal investment decision function proposed by this study has a unique and specific expression, high regulating precision and computable characteristics.

  19. Macroeconomic control,political costs and earnings management:Evidence from Chinese listed real estate companies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Donghua; Chen; Jieying; Li; Shangkun; Liang; Guojun; Wang

    2011-01-01

    Firms in China have faced high political costs during China’s economic transition,because they are affected by macroeconomic policies.However,research to date has offered no consistent conclusions on the relationship between political costs and earnings management in China.This study tests whether real estate firms attempt to decrease earnings during periods of macroeconomic control,using variables related to the national real estate market as proxies for political costs.We find that political costs are negatively related to earnings management in listed real estate firms.In addition,we find that non-state-owned enterprises utilized more income-decreasing accruals during this period.Our results are consistent with the political costs hypothesis.

  20. Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

    2011-03-31

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

  1. Associations Between the Macroeconomic Indicators and Suicide Rates in India: Two Ecological Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, Anto P; Senthilkumar, P; Gayathri, K; Shyamsundar, G; Jacob, K S

    2015-01-01

    While western studies have focused on the importance of psychiatric illnesses in the complex pathways leading to suicides, several Indian studies have highlighted the important contributions by economic, social, and cultural factors. Hence, we tested the hypothesis that annual national suicide rates and suicide rates of the different states in India were associated with macroeconomic indices. Data from the National crime records bureau, Ministry of finance, labour bureau, Government of India, population commission, and planning commission official portals, World Bank and the United Nations were accessed. We assessed the correlations of annual national and state-wise suicide rates with macroeconomic, health, and other indices using ecological study design for India, and for its different states and union territories. We documented statistically significant associations between the suicide rates and per capita gross domestic product, consumer price index, foreign exchange, trade balance, total health expenditure as well as literacy rates. As recent economic growth in India is associated with increasing suicide rates, macroeconomic policies emphasizing equitable distribution of resources may help curtailing the population suicide rates in India.

  2. Oil Shocks and Macroeconomic Adjustment: a DSGE modeling approach for the Case of Libya, 1970–2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Issa Ali

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Libya experienced a substantial increase in oil revenue as a result of increased oil prices during the period of the late 1970s and early 1980s, and again after 2000. Recent increases in oil production and the price of oil, and their positive and negative macroeconomic impacts upon key macroeconomic variables, are of considerable contemporary importance to an oil dependent economy such as that of Libya. In this paper a dynamic macroeconomic model is developed for Libya to evaluate the effects of additional oil revenue, arising from positive oil production and oil price shocks, upon key macroeconomic variables, including the real exchange rate. It takes into consideration the impact of oil revenue upon the non-oil trade balance, foreign asset stock, physical capital stock, human capital stock, imported capital stock and non-oil production. Model simulation results indicate that additional oil revenue brings about: an increase in government revenue, increased government spending in the domestic economy, increased foreign asset stocks, increased output and wages in the non oil sector. However, increased oil revenue may also produce adverse consequences, particularly upon the non-oil trade balance, arising from a loss of competitiveness of non-oil tradable goods induced by an appreciation of the real exchange rate and increased imports stimulated by increased real income. Model simulation results also suggest that investment stimulating policy measures by government produce the most substantive benefits for the economy.

  3. The Macroeconomic Framework of Support Analysis for Sustainable Businesses Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Mitrut

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The state of satisfaction of an economy results from the quality of the economic products it produces and consumes, in agreement with assuring environment protection, as a source of producing present and future economic goods, and with intensive utilising of human capital, as a source of innovation growth. Knowledge transfer happens in a sustainable economy, whose principles are rational use of resources, limiting of waste, protection, for enabling future generations to have also access to resources. The present research is based on a multifactorial liniar regression model which outlines the direct correlation between the dependent variable welfare and the independent variable of concentration measured by the Gini coefficient of wealth concentration, on the one hand, and by the GDP level, on the other hand, at the level of year 2012. The aim of this research is to identify the correlation between the indicator of quality of life satisfaction or of the welfare function at the level of EU 2012, and the assurance of a macroeconomic framework for sustainable business development.

  4. Emergent Macroeconomics An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Palestrini, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    This book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics by providing a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields like the microeconomics of capital market imperfections, industrial dynamics and the theory of stochastic processes can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. This book should be a valuable resource for all researchers interested in analyzing macroeconomic issues without recurring to a fictitious representative agent.

  5. Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Ranaldo, Angelo

    2005-01-01

    We investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. Our results deliver insights into the dominating drivers of bond-stock comovements. We find that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact...... that an announcement occurs that influences the realized bond-stock correlation. The impact of macroeconomic announcements varies across the business cycle. Announcement effects are highly dependent on the sign of the realized bond-stock correlation which has recently gone from positive to negative. Macroeconomic...... announcement effects on realized bond and stock volatilities are also investigated....

  6. INVESTIGATING MACROECONOMIC STABILITY USING THE OUTPUT GAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia TITAN

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to illustrate the importance of the output gap in analysing macroeconomic stability in general and business cycle dynamics in particular. Ten EU countries are considered, with five old members and five new members. For all ten countries the data for the period 1999-2014 is used, but for four countries, namely France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain additional data is available that goes back to 1965, such that the whole period 1965-2014 is covered, which allows for a particular analysis. An empirical analysis is performed with regard to the behaviour of the output gap for different countries over time. The results obtained allow for relevant comparisons and highlight the usefulness of this indicator as a tool in the study of business cycles.

  7. Macroeconomic control of interest rate in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姜鸣; 叶元煦; 何绍元

    2002-01-01

    The macroeconomic control of interest rate is studied using the elastic theory and correlation analysisand the concrete influence of interest rate on the consumption, savings and investment in China are investiga-ted. It is pointed out that although the interest rate mechanisms in China has gone through several adjustmentsand reforms, the results are not yet fully up to expectations. The interest rate does not adjust the national eco-nomic structure, and direct the trend of funds, nor regulate the general social supply and demand and balancethe price and currency in circulation, to achieve a rational distribution of social resources. The interest rate pol-icy of Central Bank does not have much actual influence on the economic departments, and this influence wascontinuously weakened in recent years. Countermeasures are suggested for improving the macro control of inter-est rate.

  8. WEATHER ON OTHER WORLDS. III. A SURVEY FOR T DWARFS WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE OPTICAL VARIABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinze, Aren N.; Metchev, Stanimir [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3800 (United States); Kellogg, Kendra, E-mail: aren.heinze@stonybrook.edu, E-mail: smetchev@uwo.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond St, London, ON N6A 3K7 (Canada)

    2015-03-10

    We have monitored 12 T dwarfs with the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope using an F814W filter (0.7-0.95 μm) to place in context the remarkable 10%-20% variability exhibited by the nearby T dwarf Luhman 16B in this wavelength regime. The motivation was the poorly known red optical behavior of T dwarfs, which have been monitored almost exclusively at infrared wavelengths, where variability amplitudes greater than 10% have been found to be very rare. We detect highly significant variability in two T dwarfs. The T2.5 dwarf 2MASS 13243559+6358284 shows consistent ∼17% variability on two consecutive nights. The T2 dwarf 2MASS J16291840+0335371 exhibits ∼10% variability that may evolve from night to night, similarly to Luhman 16B. Both objects were previously known to be variable in the infrared, but with considerably lower amplitudes. We also find evidence for variability in the T6 dwarf J162414.37+002915.6, but since it has lower significance, we conservatively refrain from claiming this object as a variable. We explore and rule out various telluric effects, demonstrating that the variations we detect are astrophysically real. We suggest that high-amplitude photometric variability for T dwarfs is likely more common in the red optical than at longer wavelengths. The two new members of the growing class of high-amplitude variable T dwarfs offer excellent prospects for further study of cloud structures and their evolution.

  9. Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias [Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Royal Institute of Technology KTH, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-09-15

    How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

  10. Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.

  11. Technological changes on the macroeconomic level—mathematical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Shananin

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider two of the technological changes on the macroeconomic level. The first type is due to changes of addresses of mutual deliveries between producers and the second type is due to technological progress.

  12. Essays in political economy and resource economic : A macroeconomic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez Acosta, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of four chapters in Political Economy and Resource Economics from a macroeconomic perspective. This collection of works emphasizes the endogenous nature of institutions and their importance for economic development. The four chapters revolve around two central questions:

  13. The Birth of the Regulated Company in the Macroeconomic Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alexandru BODISLAV

    2011-01-01

    This research analyzes the mode of evolution of an economy at macroeconomic level, backward-pyramidal evolution from the capitalism structure, the appearance of the free enterprise and the corporate...

  14. a review of selected macroeconomic factors impacting building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2011-09-27

    Sep 27, 2011 ... procurement in Nigeria. The influence of the macro-economic indicators on this problem cannot ..... Hillebrandt, P. M. (2000) Economic Theory and the Construction Industry. ... Udeh, C. (1991), Contract Administration in.

  15. Interactive macroeconomics stochastic aggregate dynamics with heterogeneous and interacting agents

    CERN Document Server

    Di Guilmi, Corrado

    2017-01-01

    One of the major problems of macroeconomic theory is the way in which the people exchange goods in decentralized market economies. There are major disagreements among macroeconomists regarding tools to influence required outcomes. Since the mainstream efficient market theory fails to provide an internal coherent framework, there is a need for an alternative theory. The book provides an innovative approach for the analysis of agent based models, populated by the heterogeneous and interacting agents in the field of financial fragility. The text is divided in two parts; the first presents analytical developments of stochastic aggregation and macro-dynamics inference methods. The second part introduces macroeconomic models of financial fragility for complex systems populated by heterogeneous and interacting agents. The concepts of financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics are explained in detail in separate chapters. The statistical physics approach is applied to explain theories of macroeconomic modelling a...

  16. Cognitive modeling and multi criteria decision making in macroeconomic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonova Nina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in macroeconomics belongs to the class of ill-structured tasks with strong external factors interdependence, a limited number of management tools and experts groups' subjectivity. This paper suggests a technique of macroeconomic analysis which includes methods of cognitive modeling for formalizing a problem situation and scenario generation as a basis of the typical multicriteria decision making task. In turn, for solving this task is suggested a method based on measuring the distance to the 'ideal' solution with determining importance of criteria by finding objective, common component of all values measured by experts groups. For extracting this 'commonality' means of factor analysis are used. Such an approach allows separating of the objective part in experts' value from a subjective one, while the technique at whole provides formalization of macroeconomic problems and substantiation of decision-making in macroeconomics.

  17. MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND GREENFIELD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT OF HOTEL BRANDS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Joze Peric; Maja Niksic Radic

    2016-01-01

    .... The purpose of the study is to assess the macroeconomic environment, the effects of greenfield FDI in tourism and, consequently, the presence of global hotel brands using the comparative analysis...

  18. Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries: How Much Is Enough?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Peter Montiel; Luis Servén

    2006-01-01

    Over the 1990s macroeconomic policies improved in most developing countries, but the growth dividend from this improvement fell short of expectations, and a policy agenda focused on stability turned...

  19. ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne

    2016-04-01

    The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

  20. The Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of Aid and Disaggregated Aid in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebregziabher, Fiseha Haile

    2014-01-01

    This article investigates the long-run macroeconomic effects of aid and disaggregated aid flows in Ethiopia, currently the world's largest recipient of official development assistance, for the period 1960-2009. The results show that aid affects gross domestic product (GDP), investment and imports...... positively, whereas it is negatively associated with government consumption. Our results concerning the impacts of disaggregated aid stand in stark contrast to earlier work. Bilateral aid increases investment and GDP and is negatively associated with government consumption, whereas multilateral aid is only...

  1. Macroeconomic situation in Moldova in terms of the economic crisis 2008-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihail PĂDUREAN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The world economic crisis has exerted a negative impact on the economic development of Moldova, but recent trends show that since 2010 the country has been recording a small economic growth. The article examines the problems faced by the Moldavian economy during recession, as well as the subsequent changes with reference to macroeconomic indicators. The paper is a review of the materials of the Institute of Economics of the Republic of Moldova and other institutions, as well as a collection of literature and the author's own opinions. It makes use of the descriptive method and deductive and inductive reasoning.

  2. The macroeconomics of public sector deficits : a synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    1991-01-01

    Fiscal deficits have been at the forefront of macroeconomic adjustment in the 1980s, both in developing and developed countries. Fiscal deficits were blamed in good part for the assortment of ills that beset developing countries in the 1980s: over-indebtedness leading to the debt crisis beginning in 1982, high inflation, and poor investment and growth performance. This paper will examine the evidence for the macroeconomic effects of fiscal deficits, using the results of a set of ten case stud...

  3. Experience of Macroeconomic Models Realization in Transition Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvira Naval

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This article represents an issue about macroeconomic model realization under transition economy of Moldova Republic. Different macroeconomic model beginning with simple monetary model and growth model, and more complicated model as financial programming models, general equilibrium model, describing complex functioning of national economy and forecasting effect of various economic policies on economy development were considered. Some comparative analysis and conclusions were presented.

  4. Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Chantal Dupasquier; Patrick N. Osakwe

    2006-01-01

    Trade policy has been a very contentious issue in the discourse on African development. Using panel data for 33 African countries spanning the period 1986-2000, we examine the relationship between trade liberalization and macroeconomic instability in Africa. We focus on instabilities in output, consumption and investment, and use both single and system estimation techniques as well as different measures of trade regimes. After controlling for key potential sources of macroeconomic instability...

  5. Macroeconomic Factors and the Correlation of Stock and Bond Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Lingfeng Li

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines the correlation between stock and bond returns. It first documents that the major trends in stock-bond correlation for G7 countries follow a similar reverting pattern in the past forty years. Next, an asset pricing model is employed to show that the correlation of stock and bond returns can be explained by their common exposure to macroeconomic factors. The link between the stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic factors is examined using three successively more realistic...

  6. Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Ranaldo, Angelo

    2005-01-01

    We investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. Our results deliver insights into the dominating drivers of bond-stock comovements. We find that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact that an announcement occurs that influences the realized bond-stock correlation. The impact of macroeconomic announcements varies across the business cycle. Announcement effects are highly dependent on ...

  7. The Czech Equity Market - Its Effectiveness and Macroeconomic Consequences

    OpenAIRE

    Helena Horská

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines features of the Czech stock market’s development from 1997 to 2003 and attempts to unveil the macroeconomic consequences of stock-price development. The analysis of the stock market’s behavior supports a cautionary stance on the hypothesis of the efficient-market theory, even in its weak form. Another finding, as regards the macroeconomic consequences of stock-price development, undermined the assumption of the positive wealth effect of rising stocks. In relation to GDP gr...

  8. Macroeconomic effects of the current crises in Japan and MENA countries - A model-based assessment of the medium term

    OpenAIRE

    Mönnig, Anke; Wiebe, Kirsten

    2011-01-01

    Two events currently preoccupy global news: the political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Both events are very different in its nature and location, but they not only affect economic developments within these countries but also across the world. In the current paper, the macroeconomic effects of both events and of a combination of both crises are analysed by applying a dynamic interindustry model. That not only al...

  9. Paper 5: The Water Variable - Producing enough food in a climate insecure world

    OpenAIRE

    Burke, Jakob; Kuylenstierna, Johan

    2009-01-01

    This paper serves as an input for the thematic, regional and political processes of the 5th WorldWater Forum and focuses on the challenges related to water, climate change and food security.Recent publications related to the anticipated impacts of climate change on water and agricultureare comprehensive, but a global analysis of specific impacts remains limited. The papersummarizes recent food production and food security trends and provides an overview of howclimate change, through impacts o...

  10. Estimating Mangrove Biophysical Variables Using WorldView-2 Satellite Data: Rapid Creek, Northern Territory, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muditha K. Heenkenda

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Mangroves are one of the most productive coastal communities in the world. Although we acknowledge the significance of ecosystems, mangroves are under natural and anthropogenic pressures at various scales. Therefore, understanding biophysical variations of mangrove forests is important. An extensive field survey is impossible within mangroves. WorldView-2 multi-spectral images having a 2-m spatial resolution were used to quantify above ground biomass (AGB and leaf area index (LAI in the Rapid Creek mangroves, Darwin, Australia. Field measurements, vegetation indices derived from WorldView-2 images and a partial least squares regression algorithm were incorporated to produce LAI and AGB maps. LAI maps with 2-m and 5-m spatial resolutions showed root mean square errors (RMSEs of 0.75 and 0.78, respectively, compared to validation samples. Correlation coefficients between field samples and predicted maps were 0.7 and 0.8, respectively. RMSEs obtained for AGB maps were 2.2 kg/m2 and 2.0 kg/m2 for a 2-m and a 5-m spatial resolution, and the correlation coefficients were 0.4 and 0.8, respectively. We would suggest implementing the transects method for field sampling and establishing end points of these transects with a highly accurate positioning system. The study demonstrated the possibility of assessing biophysical variations of mangroves using remotely-sensed data.

  11. Report of the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health: a critique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerji, Debabar

    2002-01-01

    The World Health Organization has been able to interest some of the world's top economists in joining the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, to study macroeconomics of health services for the poor peoples of the world. The commission has been ahistorical, apolitical, and atheoretical. It has adopted a selective approach to conform to a preconceived ideology. It has ignored earlier work done in this field. And it has pointedly ignored such major developments in the health services as the Alma-Ata Declaration. These failings have brought the quality of the scholastic work to an almost rock-bottom level. The commission's tunnel vision in its recommendations on so important a subject is not surprising. Its emphatic recommendations for perpetuating vertical programs against major communicable diseases (tuberculosis, AIDS, and malaria) on the grounds that such programs have proved convenient to "donors" reveals the real motivations for an almost openly ideology-driven agenda. This is a serious danger signal for scholars who wish to take a scientific attitude toward program formulations for the poor that provide maximum returns from limited resources. The concept of DALYs (disability adjusted life years) is bristling with gross infirmities. The WHO-generated data used for DALY calculations, converted into dollar terms, are patently invalid, unreliable, and not comparable between and even within countries.

  12. Low-latitude climate variability in the Heinrich frequency band of the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, Niels; Zeeden, C.J.R.; Hilgen, F.J.

    2014-01-01

    Deep marine successions of early Campanian age from DSDP (Deep Sea Drilling Project) site 516F drilled at low paleolatitudes in the South Atlantic reveal distinct sub-Milankovitch variability in addition to precession, obliquity and eccentricity-related variations. Elemental abundance ratios point t

  13. Effects of Variable Eccentricity on the Climate of an Earth-Like World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Way, M. J.; Georgakarakos, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the Astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems very different from the one which we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and its climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for its large moon. Using a three dimensional general circulation model (3-D GCM) with a fully-coupled ocean we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earths orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve evolution of the Earth-like planets orbital eccentricity from 0 to 0.066 on a time scale of 4500 years, and from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years. We discover that during most of the 6500 year scenario the planet would experience a moist greenhouse effect when near periastron. This could have implications for the ability of such a world to retain an ocean on time scales of 109 years. More Earth-like planets in multi-planet systems will be discovered as we continue to survey the skies and the results herein show that the proximity of large gas giant planets may play an important role in the habitabilty of these worlds. These are the first such 3-D GCM simulations using a fully-coupled ocean with a planetary orbit that evolves over time due to the presence of a giant planet.

  14. ABOUT MACROECONOMIC PURPOSE OF THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE BALANCED MACROECONOMIC SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Vladimirov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is a theoretical substantiation of the possibility of DOS reaches the maximum possible public efficiencies of government spending, investments and taxes in perfect condition coordination bath open economic system. The proposed model can always bring in the ideal case («zero-loss" public effectively scope of public expenditure and investment to the maximum possible rate of economic growth, that allows you to substantiate the main directions of the relevant macroeconomic (fiscal, tax and budget policy.

  15. Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, James E.; Abreu, Paulo C.; Carstensen, Jacob; Chauvaud, Laurent; Elmgren, Ragnar; Grall, Jacques; Greening, Holly; Johansson, John O.R.; Kahru, Mati; Sherwood, Edward T.; Xu, Jie; Yin, Kedong

    2016-01-01

    Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

  16. TEST OF THE CHEN-ROLL-ROSS MACROECONOMIC FACTOR MODEL: EVIDENCE FROM CROATIAN STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Dolinar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the well-known Chen-Roll-Ross model on the Croatian stock market. Modifications of definitions of the Chen-Roll-Ross model variables showed as necessary because of doubtful availability and quality of input data needed. Namely, some macroeconomic and market variables are not available in the originally defined form or do not exist. In that sense this paper gives some alternative definitions for some model variables. Also, in order to improve statistical analysis, in this paper we have modified Fama-MacBeth technique in the way that second-pass regression was substituted with panel regression analysis. Based on the two-pass regression analysis of returns of 34 Croatian stocks on 4 macroeconomic variables during the seven-and-half-year observation period the following conclusion is made. In contrast to the results of Chen, Roll and Ross (1986 for the U.S. stock market, their model is not successful when describing a risk-return relation of Croatian stocks. Nevertheless, one observed version of the Chen-RollRoss model showed certain statistical significance. Namely, two risk factors in that version of the model were statistically significant: default premium, measured as risk premium for the corporate short-term bank loan financing, and term structure premium, measured on short-run basis.

  17. Effects of variable eccentricity on the climate of an Earth-like world

    CERN Document Server

    Way, Michael J

    2016-01-01

    The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the Astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems very different from the one which we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and it's climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for its large moon. Using a three dimensional general circulation model (3-D GCM) with a fully-coupled ocean we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earth's orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve evolution of the Earth-like planet's orbital eccentricity from 0--0.066 on a time scale of 4500 years, and from 0--0.283 over 6500 years. We discover that during most of the 6500 year scenario the planet would experience a moist greenhouse effect when near periastron. This could have implications for the ability of such a world to retain an ocean on...

  18. Effects of Variable Eccentricity on the Climate of an Earth-like World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Way, M. J.; Georgakarakos, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems that are very different from the one that we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and its climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for the Moon. Using a three-dimensional general circulation model (3D GCM) with a fully coupled ocean, we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earth’s orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve the evolution of the Earth-like planet’s orbital eccentricity from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years, and from 0 to 0.066 on a timescale of 4500 years. In both cases we discover that they would maintain relatively temperate climates over the timescales simulated. More Earth-like planets in multi-planet systems will be discovered as we continue to survey the skies and the results herein show that the proximity of large gas giant planets may play an important role in the habitability of these worlds. These are the first such 3D GCM simulations using a fully coupled ocean with a planetary orbit that evolves over time due to the presence of a giant planet.

  19. ISO 9001 - Certificates by industrial sector in the world as a key decision variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Hys

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present and analyse trends in the scope of the implementation of quality certificates compliant with the ISO 9001 standard. The analysis will concern the trend in the sectoral approach all over the world. The preparation of data, their analysis and drawing conclusions have been made on the basis of the desk research method. The data was gathered by means of an analysis of source materials such as, among others: announcements, press releases, reports for industries, publicly available reports of companies and research institutions, information from the Internet.The main conclusion is the fact that the number of certificates compliant with the ISO 9001 standard is constantly growing in the world. The kind of business activity determines the engagement in the certificate implementation. The subject of research provided conclusions and at the same time, became an inspiration for defining research issues such as the ex-post analysis of the information available, drawing conclusions and drawing up directions of development. The retrospective analysis in the scope of the sectoral analysis of ISO 9001 trends, drawing conclusions and drawing up evolution directions is the author’s original contribution.

  20. Macroeconomic Determinants of IPO Activity in Poland between 1993 and 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvia Kovandová

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: This study deals with recent primary stock market developments in Poland and aims to indicate the influence of local macroeconomic indicators on IPO numbers over the period of 1993 to 2012. Methodology/methods: Descriptive statistics are used to analyse capital market and IPO developments and the Spearman correlation analysis identifies the relations between macroeconomic determinants and the IPO numbers. The data were evaluated at the significance level of α=5%. The entire statistical evaluation was performed by Statistica.CZ, Version 12. Scientific aim: The scientific aim of this article is to explore external factors that may influence the decision of enterprises to go public in the Polish capital market and thus to enlarge the current IPO literature with an analysis the following issue: What are the key local macroeconomic determinants of going public on the market in question? The number of variables used in this paper is greater than those considered in previous Polish IPO studies. Moreover, we focus on IPO activities between 1993 and 2012 and thus extend the existing time-series. Findings: The results of the correlation analysis can be summarized as follows. First of all, the hypothesis that the business cycle and stock index returns have explanatory power for the number of IPOs could not be supported by empirical evidence. On the other hand, we found empirical support that the reference interest rate affected the IPO numbers. Conclusions: The hypothesis that the reference interest rate has explanatory power for IPO numbers in the Polish capital market could be supported by empirical evidence. On the other hand we could not confirm any significant lagged effects concerning the relationship between other explanatory variables and the dependent variable. Therefore, our results suggest only a partial consistency with the theory and findings of previous IPO studies.

  1. The Covert World of Fish Biofluorescence: A Phylogenetically Widespread and Phenotypically Variable Phenomenon

    OpenAIRE

    Sparks, John S.; Robert C. Schelly; W. Leo Smith; Matthew P Davis; Dan Tchernov; Pieribone, Vincent A.; Gruber, David F.

    2014-01-01

    The discovery of fluorescent proteins has revolutionized experimental biology. Whereas the majority of fluorescent proteins have been identified from cnidarians, recently several fluorescent proteins have been isolated across the animal tree of life. Here we show that biofluorescence is not only phylogenetically widespread, but is also phenotypically variable across both cartilaginous and bony fishes, highlighting its evolutionary history and the possibility for discovery of numerous novel fl...

  2. The covert world of fish biofluorescence: a phylogenetically widespread and phenotypically variable phenomenon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John S Sparks

    Full Text Available The discovery of fluorescent proteins has revolutionized experimental biology. Whereas the majority of fluorescent proteins have been identified from cnidarians, recently several fluorescent proteins have been isolated across the animal tree of life. Here we show that biofluorescence is not only phylogenetically widespread, but is also phenotypically variable across both cartilaginous and bony fishes, highlighting its evolutionary history and the possibility for discovery of numerous novel fluorescent proteins. Fish biofluorescence is especially common and morphologically variable in cryptically patterned coral-reef lineages. We identified 16 orders, 50 families, 105 genera, and more than 180 species of biofluorescent fishes. We have also reconstructed our current understanding of the phylogenetic distribution of biofluorescence for ray-finned fishes. The presence of yellow long-pass intraocular filters in many biofluorescent fish lineages and the substantive color vision capabilities of coral-reef fishes suggest that they are capable of detecting fluoresced light. We present species-specific emission patterns among closely related species, indicating that biofluorescence potentially functions in intraspecific communication and evidence that fluorescence can be used for camouflage. This research provides insight into the distribution, evolution, and phenotypic variability of biofluorescence in marine lineages and examines the role this variation may play.

  3. The covert world of fish biofluorescence: a phylogenetically widespread and phenotypically variable phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, John S; Schelly, Robert C; Smith, W Leo; Davis, Matthew P; Tchernov, Dan; Pieribone, Vincent A; Gruber, David F

    2014-01-01

    The discovery of fluorescent proteins has revolutionized experimental biology. Whereas the majority of fluorescent proteins have been identified from cnidarians, recently several fluorescent proteins have been isolated across the animal tree of life. Here we show that biofluorescence is not only phylogenetically widespread, but is also phenotypically variable across both cartilaginous and bony fishes, highlighting its evolutionary history and the possibility for discovery of numerous novel fluorescent proteins. Fish biofluorescence is especially common and morphologically variable in cryptically patterned coral-reef lineages. We identified 16 orders, 50 families, 105 genera, and more than 180 species of biofluorescent fishes. We have also reconstructed our current understanding of the phylogenetic distribution of biofluorescence for ray-finned fishes. The presence of yellow long-pass intraocular filters in many biofluorescent fish lineages and the substantive color vision capabilities of coral-reef fishes suggest that they are capable of detecting fluoresced light. We present species-specific emission patterns among closely related species, indicating that biofluorescence potentially functions in intraspecific communication and evidence that fluorescence can be used for camouflage. This research provides insight into the distribution, evolution, and phenotypic variability of biofluorescence in marine lineages and examines the role this variation may play.

  4. Macroeconomic trends and reforms in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Sabbatini

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper traces the main macroeconomic developments in the German economy from national unification. Its performance is compared with that of the rest of the euro area and its largest economies. The study documents as GermanyÕs modest growth in the later 1990s was due to the restrictive impact on domestic demand coming from the deep restructuring and modernization of the production system, followed by sweeping reforms after the turn of the century. Rapid productivity increases and prolonged wage moderation, especially in industry, fuelled a large and mounting current account surplus in Germany, that compares with the deficits registered in most European countries. The study retraces the recent debate on how to correct those imbalances, recalling the arguments for and against the thesis that the countries with a current payments surplus, above all Germany, must also play an active role in fostering the adjustment of the deficit countries. A possible synthesis is proposed, based on an analysis of the formation of national income and the use of resources according to the national accounts system. The implication is that Germany may contribute to the correction of imbalances within the euro area not so much by altering the wage formation mechanism as by creating incentives for domestic investment, hence fostering employment creation, in the service sectors that are currently lagging behind the extraordinary perfomance of a number of core activities in the industry.

  5. Low-latitude climate variability in the Heinrich frequency band of the Late Cretaceous Greenhouse world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. J. de Winter

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Deep marine successions of early Campanian age from DSDP site 516F drilled at low paleolatitudes in the South Atlantic reveal distinct sub-Milankovitch variability in addition to precession and eccentricity related variations. Elemental abundance ratios point to a similar climatic origin for these variations and exclude a quadripartite structure – as observed in the Mediterranean Neogene – of the precession related cycles as an explanation for the inferred semi-precession cyclicity in MS. However, the semi-precession cycle itself is likely an artifact, reflecting the first harmonic of the precession signal. The sub-Milankovitch variability is best approximated by a ~ 7 kyr cycle as shown by spectral analysis and bandpass filtering. The presence of sub-Milankovitch cycles with a period similar to that of Heinrich events of the last glacial cycle is consistent with linking the latter to low-latitude climate change caused by a non-linear response to precession induced variations in insolation between the tropics.

  6. Coping with daily thermal variability: behavioural performance of an ectotherm model in a warming world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M Rojas

    Full Text Available Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to species persistence. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on dispersal and exploratory behavior in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio laevis in an open field. Acclimation treatments were 24 ± 0, 24 ± 4 and 24 ± 8 °C. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that animals acclimated to a higher daily thermal variation should minimize the time exposed in the centre of open field, --i.e. increase the linearity of displacements. Consistent with our prediction, isopods acclimated to a thermally variable environment reduce their exploratory behaviour, hypothetically to minimize their exposure to adverse environmental conditions. This scenario as well as the long latency of animals after releases acclimated to variable environments is consistent with this idea. We suggested that to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature on animals' performance.

  7. Coping with daily thermal variability: behavioural performance of an ectotherm model in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, José M; Castillo, Simón B; Folguera, Guillermo; Abades, Sebastián; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to species persistence. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the effects of acclimation to daily variance of temperature on dispersal and exploratory behavior in the terrestrial isopod Porcellio laevis in an open field. Acclimation treatments were 24 ± 0, 24 ± 4 and 24 ± 8 °C. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that animals acclimated to a higher daily thermal variation should minimize the time exposed in the centre of open field, --i.e. increase the linearity of displacements. Consistent with our prediction, isopods acclimated to a thermally variable environment reduce their exploratory behaviour, hypothetically to minimize their exposure to adverse environmental conditions. This scenario as well as the long latency of animals after releases acclimated to variable environments is consistent with this idea. We suggested that to develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature on animals' performance.

  8. A Study of the Relationship between Weather Variables and Electric Power Demand inside a Smart Grid/Smart World Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Chinarro

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the main challenges of today’s society is the need to fulfill at the same time the two sides of the dichotomy between the growing energy demand and the need to look after the environment. Smart Grids are one of the answers: intelligent energy grids which retrieve data about the environment through extensive sensor networks and react accordingly to optimize resource consumption. In order to do this, the Smart Grids need to understand the existing relationship between energy demand and a set of relevant climatic variables. All smart “systems” (buildings, cities, homes, consumers, etc. have the potential to employ their intelligence for self-adaptation to climate conditions. After introducing the Smart World, a global framework for the collaboration of these smart systems, this paper presents the relationship found at experimental level between a range of relevant weather variables and electric power demand patterns, presenting a case study using an agent-based system, and emphasizing the need to consider this relationship in certain Smart World (and specifically Smart Grid and microgrid applications.

  9. A Study of the Relationship between Weather Variables and Electric Power Demand inside a Smart Grid/Smart World Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Luis; Baladrón, Carlos; Aguiar, Javier M.; Calavia, Lorena; Carro, Belén; Sánchez-Esguevillas, Antonio; Cook, Diane J.; Chinarro, David; Gómez, Jorge

    2012-01-01

    One of the main challenges of today's society is the need to fulfill at the same time the two sides of the dichotomy between the growing energy demand and the need to look after the environment. Smart Grids are one of the answers: intelligent energy grids which retrieve data about the environment through extensive sensor networks and react accordingly to optimize resource consumption. In order to do this, the Smart Grids need to understand the existing relationship between energy demand and a set of relevant climatic variables. All smart “systems” (buildings, cities, homes, consumers, etc.) have the potential to employ their intelligence for self-adaptation to climate conditions. After introducing the Smart World, a global framework for the collaboration of these smart systems, this paper presents the relationship found at experimental level between a range of relevant weather variables and electric power demand patterns, presenting a case study using an agent-based system, and emphasizing the need to consider this relationship in certain Smart World (and specifically Smart Grid and microgrid) applications.

  10. Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Zulkefly Abdul Karim; Bakri Abdul Karim

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of foreign shocks upon domestic macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy, and examines the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy as a stabilization policy in Malaysia. Monetary policy variables (interest rate and money supply) have been measured through a non-recursive structural VAR (SVAR) identification scheme, which allows the monetary authority to set the interest rate and money supply after observing the current value of foreign...

  11. EFFECTS OF CAPITAL FLIGHT AND ITS MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS ON AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1970-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Robert Usman

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examines the impact of capital fight and its macroeconomic determinants on agricultural growth in Nigeria from 1970 -2013. Data generated were analyzed using Unit root test, co-integration test, regression analysis. The study result found negative and insignificant relationship(P>0.05 between total capital flight and agricultural growth; meaning that capital flight has no direct impact on agricultural growth or the impact on agricultural growth is shadowed by the other macroeconomic variables in the system. Also, the stock of gross external debt (EXD variable showed positive and statistically significant relationship (P<0.05 with agricultural growth. The result shows that a unit change in EXD will bring about 24% change in the growth of agriculture provided other factors are kept constant. Political instability (POL variable has negative and significant effect on agricultural growth in Nigeria. The study recommends that Nigeria’s judicious use of the income accruing from loans and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI is paramount if Agricultural growth is to be enhanced. Furthermore, the overall peace, security of lives and property and guaranty of investment by the government is essential therefore; Government should take concerted step to improve security of life and property in the country.

  12. 宏观经济学中的长期与短期%Long-term and Short-term of Macroeconomics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范小仲

    2013-01-01

    The long-term and short-term factors in macroeconomics are intertwined and interacting. Modern macroeconomics theory is mainly based on the wage and price adjustment speed to define long-term and short-term, study macroeconomics variable decisions in long-term and short-term, using different model analyze long-term and short-term problem, study the ef-fects of macroeconomics policy on long-term and short-term perspective, and attempts through a combination of long and short approach to compatible main macroeconomics theoretical divergences.%宏观经济中的长期和短期因素交织在一起并且相互作用。现代宏观经济学主要依据工资和价格调整速度来界定长期和短期,研究宏观经济变量的长期和短期决定,运用不同模型分析长期问题和短期问题,从长期和短期视角考察宏观经济政策效应,并试图通过长期和短期相结合的方法兼容宏观经济学主要流派的理论分歧。

  13. Modern macroeconomics: a review of the post 2008/2009 crisis debate

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    macroeconomics has gone wayward and thus become irrelevant for policy, others ... consequent spillover effects for the whole economy and on global a scale. ... macroeconomics yet, but monetary theory on one side and real business cycle.

  14. Seeing the world differently: variability in the photosensory mechanisms of two model fungi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, Arko; Fuller, Kevin K; Dunlap, Jay C; Loros, Jennifer J

    2016-01-01

    Light plays an important role for most organisms on this planet, serving either as a source of energy or information for the adaptation of biological processes to specific times of day. The fungal kingdom is estimated to contain well over a million species, possibly 10-fold more, and it is estimated that a majority of the fungi respond to light, eliciting changes in several physiological characteristics including pathogenesis, development and secondary metabolism. Two model organisms for photobiological studies have taken centre-stage over the last few decades--Neurospora crassa and Aspergillus nidulans. In this review, we will first discuss our understanding of the light response in N. crassa, about which the most is known, and will then juxtapose N. crassa with A. nidulans, which, as will be described below, provides an excellent template for understanding photosensory cross-talk. Finally, we will end with a commentary on the variability of the light response among other relevant fungi, and how our molecular understanding in the aforementioned model organisms still provides a strong base for dissecting light responses in such species.

  15. THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS ON MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES IN BRICS COUNTRIES AND USA

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    The global economic crisis which has emerged 2007 year has led to major financial and corporate scandals, also hence to large fluctuations in macroeconomic developments and the implementation of national policies. Macroeconomic aggregates are important indicators that measure the results of activities of the economy of a country, and therefore are important for macroeconomic analysis. The aim of this paper is to show the impact of the global economic crisis on macroeconomic aggregates in the ...

  16. Families in the context of macroeconomic crises: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Gabriela; Cunha, Diana; Crespo, Carla; Relvas, Ana Paula

    2016-09-01

    The present study is a systematic review of empirical literature from the last 35 years on families' responses to economic distress in the context of macroeconomic crises. Thirty-nine studies published between 1983 and 2015 in 12 countries were identified, resulting in 3 main findings. First, economic distress was associated with negative changes in family dynamics, specifically couple relationships and parenting. Second, protective factors were found to buffer the adverse effects of economic distress on family and individual outcomes. Third, the results suggest that individual responses to macroeconomic crises may be moderated by sex. Implications for future research encompass using validated assessment instruments, including participants beyond 2-parent families with adolescent children and conducting both longitudinal and qualitative studies that focus on the processes and meanings of adaptation within this risk context. Conclusions highlighted the need to assist families dealing with macroeconomic crises' demands, encouraging the development and validation of macrosystemic intervention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record

  17. Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chirwa Themba G.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper conducts a qualitative narrative appraisal of the existing empirical literature on the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in developing and developed countries. Much as other empirical studies have investigated the determinants of economic growth using various econometric methods, the majority of these studies have not distinguished what drives or hinders economic growth in developing or developed countries. The study finds that the determinants of economic growth are different when this distinction is used. It reveals that in developing countries the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth include foreign aid, foreign direct investment, fiscal policy, investment, trade, human capital development, demographics, monetary policy, natural resources, reforms and geographic, regional, political and financial factors. In developed countries, the study reveals that the key macroeconomic determinants that are associated with economic growth include physical capital, fiscal policy, human capital, trade, demographics, monetary policy and financial and technological factors.

  18. Evaluating the Relationship between the Energy Consumption and the Macroeconomic Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Zamani

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the energy consumption and macro-economic variables in order to explain the relationship between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, inflation, Economic growth and employment and the energy consumption during 1360 to 1390. This study is applied based on the purpose and the library type based on the data collection and among the correlation studies based on the method and are seeking to explain the relationship and calculation of correlation rate and coefficients of each independent variables with the energy consumption by using econometric models. Data and information needed for the research are collected based on document library studies and information related to research variables by referring to the websites of Central Bank and Statistical Center of Iran. First, the significant relationship between the independent and dependent variables was studied by Pearson correlation coefficient test and then the reliability determining tests, such as the Dickey-Fuller unit root test, were used in order to determine the reliability or stability of variables used in various forms. The accuracy test of classical assumptions was done for estimated functions and assurance of desired estimations accuracy and assurance of estimated relationship and long-term and balance coefficients of independent variables. Evaluation of stability (Durability or reliability of variables was done by E Views software and the statistics R2, F and Durbin-Watson were used in the analysis as the outputs of software. The tests of classical assumptions accuracy and residual term reliability were done after estimating the model in order ensure the accuracy of regression results and implementing the relations and coefficients in the long term. Consequently, by conducting this study it was found that there is a significant correlation between the macroeconomic indicators (GDP, CPI, Economic growth and employment and the energy

  19. MACROECONOMIC FACTORS OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sipos-Gug Sebastian

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship has been traditionally related to several economic factors, including economy growth, inflation, unemployment, interest rates. The causal relation between these variables however has been the topic of several hypothesises. Our goal is to assess these relations in the case of the European Union. While several similar studies have been pursued in the field, we aim to bring further evidence to the potential of impacting entrepreneurship through changes in economic factors at the country level Our analysis used panel regression to estimate the relation between macroeconomic factors and entrepreneurial density. Results indicate that Gross Domestic Product is positively related to entrepreneurial activity, and further more in the case of the European Union we bring evidence to the fact that the relation might be quadratic, as opposed to linear as it is generally suggested. In the case of the European Union this results in a reversed U shape of the distribution. More specifically, in the case of the investigated period only the upward half of the reversed U was observed, so on this specific interval the overall effect was positive. Regarding inflation we have observed a positive, but weak, relationship between it and entrepreneurial activity. The direction of the relation was not expected, however we provide a potential explanation in the specifics of inflation in the European Union (relative stability. Ease of starting a business, measured as the cost, time and procedures required is negatively related to entrepreneurial activity, as is the lending interest rate. Unemployment could not be significantly related to entrepreneurial density, however we believe that this is due to the fact that the lagged effect that we expected to find might either have a unit lower than 1 year, might have different values in different countries, or both. We conclude that these relations could provide a means to better understand the impact of economic

  20. Sustainability transitions in the perspective of ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    macroeconomics that addresses multiple crises by including insights from different, partly overlapping research communities. The main idea is to explore the usefulness of combining three different system perspectives in the study of sustainability transitions: socio-technical provision systems, distributional...... systems and macroeconomic systems. First, the theoretical concept of sustainability and the different system perspectives are outlined, and then the perspectives are brought together in the discussion of a specific topic that is key to sustainable transition: the need for considerable resources to invest...

  1. Temporal and kinematic variables for real-world falls harvested from lumbar sensors in the elderly population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourke, A K; Klenk, J; Schwickert, L; Aminian, K; Ihlen, E A F; Helbostad, J L; Chiari, L; Becker, C

    2015-01-01

    Automatic fall detection will reduce the consequences of falls in the elderly and promote independent living, ensuring people can confidently live safely at home. Inertial sensor technology can distinguish falls from normal activities. However, fall data recorded from elderly people in real life. The FARSEEING project has compiled a database of real life falls from elderly people, to gain new knowledge about fall events. We have extracted temporal and kinematic parameters to further improve the development of fall detection algorithms. A total of 100 real-world falls were analysed. Subjects with a known fall history were recruited, inertial sensors were attached to L5 and a fall report, following a fall, was used to extract the fall signal. This data-set was examined, and variables were extracted that include upper and lower impact peak values, posture angle change during the fall and time of occurrence. These extracted parameters, can be used to inform the design of fall-detection algorithms for real-world falls detection in the elderly.

  2. Comparison of Macroeconomic Performance of Selected Asian Countries. An Econometric Analysis of China Economic Growth and Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasret Benar Balcioglu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the key macroeconomics indicators for the selected countries: China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Rep. and India and also makes an econometric analysis for China for the period 1961-2007. These countries are chosen on the basis of comparability of data and time without measurement errors. This study also investigates six hypotheses considering the impact of several key macroeconomic variables such as domestic saving rate, domestic investment rate, and volatility of savings, volatility of inflation, growth rate of exports and growth rate of real GNP. By using suitable statistical and econometric tests, this paper finds that prevailing performance of China depends on its superior rates of domestic saving and exports. Policies are also suggested from the differentials between the economic performances of China and other chosen Asian countries.

  3. Complexity and Hopf Bifurcation Analysis on a Kind of Fractional-Order IS-LM Macroeconomic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Ren, Wenbo

    On the basis of our previous research, we deepen and complete a kind of macroeconomics IS-LM model with fractional-order calculus theory, which is a good reflection on the memory characteristics of economic variables, we also focus on the influence of the variables on the real system, and improve the analysis capabilities of the traditional economic models to suit the actual macroeconomic environment. The conditions of Hopf bifurcation in fractional-order system models are briefly demonstrated, and the fractional order when Hopf bifurcation occurs is calculated, showing the inherent complex dynamic characteristics of the system. With numerical simulation, bifurcation, strange attractor, limit cycle, waveform and other complex dynamic characteristics are given; and the order condition is obtained with respect to time. We find that the system order has an important influence on the running state of the system. The system has a periodic motion when the order meets the conditions of Hopf bifurcation; the fractional-order system gradually stabilizes with the change of the order and parameters while the corresponding integer-order system diverges. This study has certain significance to policy-making about macroeconomic regulation and control.

  4. Teaching with Data in the Principles of Macroeconomics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Hong

    2012-01-01

    Economic data play an important role in the study of macroeconomics. Teaching with data through interactive classes can engage students more fully in the learning process. Although the pedagogy of teaching with data has been widely applied in the undergraduate science classroom, its extension to the economics classroom is rarely discussed. This…

  5. Extending the Principles of Intensive Writing to Large Macroeconomics Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Docherty, Peter; Tse, Harry; Forman, Ross; McKenzie, Jo

    2010-01-01

    The authors report on the design and implementation of a pilot program to extend the principles of intensive writing outlined by W. Lee Hansen (1998), Murray S. Simpson and Shireen E. Carroll (1999) and David Carless (2006) to large macroeconomics classes. The key aspect of this program was its collaborative nature, with staff from two specialist…

  6. The Use of Narrative Interview in Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Peggy

    2010-01-01

    The author describes the design and implementation of one experiential learning assignment used in a principles of macroeconomics course. The learning exercise provides an active role for students and results in a relational experience that provides traditional undergraduate students with a frame of reference with which to interpret the impact of…

  7. Macroeconomic and social change and popular demand for redistribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jæger, Mads Meier

    This paper tests the self-interest hypothesis arguing that changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect popular demand for redistribution. I analyze data from four waves of the European Social Survey and use a synthetic cohort design to generate pseudo panel data for socio-demographic gr......This paper tests the self-interest hypothesis arguing that changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect popular demand for redistribution. I analyze data from four waves of the European Social Survey and use a synthetic cohort design to generate pseudo panel data for socio......-demographic groups that are matched over time. I estimate fixed effect models and find that (1) changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect the demand for redistribution; (2) results are mostly consistent with the self-interest hypothesis claiming that agents demand more redistribution in economically hard...... times (and vice versa in good times); and (3) the effect of macroeconomic and social conditions on the demand for redistribution are highly non-linear....

  8. Overall Effects of China's Recent Macroeconomic Regulatory Policies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiJianwei,; ZhuShida; DavidKelly

    2004-01-01

    China's economic regulatory policies in the last few years have played an important role in curbing the slide of its consistent growth drive. In terms of overall effects, the macroeconomic regulatory policies of each fiscal year have attained their targets. In some years, however,

  9. In Search of the Motives behind US Fiscal Macroeconomic Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O.H. Swank (Otto); J. Swank (Job)

    1993-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper optimal control techniques are applied to estimate the motives behind US fiscal macroeconomic policy. Starting from a range of possible objectives and given the perception of policy makers about the environment in which they operate, the priorities of policy makers are esti

  10. LIMITS OF ECB MONETARY POLICIES ON ADJUSTING MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihnatov Iulian Romeo

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available : In this paper we intend to highlight the limits of ECB in managing the macroeconomic shocks in the Euro zone. We consider that in the last months the ECB monetary policy rate loses its effectiveness and, consequently, should be offset by other measures

  11. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  12. Macro-economic Impact Study for Bio-based Malaysia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijl, van H.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Dijk, van M.; Powell, J.P.; Tabeau, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    Deze macro-economische impactstudie (MES) biedt kwantitatieve inzichten in de macro-economische effecten van de invoering tussen nu en 2030 van groene, op palmolie gebaseerde alternatieven voor de productie van elektriciteit, brandstoffen, chemicaliën en materialen in Maleisië.This Macro-economic Im

  13. Exploring Fiscal Policy at Zero Interest Rates in Intermediate Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamurthy, Srikanth; Sedgley, Norman

    2013-01-01

    Since the financial meltdown of 2007, advanced macroeconomic theory has delved more deeply into the question of the appropriate fiscal policy when the nominal interest rate is close to or at zero percent. Such analysis is typically conducted with the aid of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The policy implications are,…

  14. CREDIBILITY AND TRANSPARENCY - SOURCES FOR THE IMPROVEMENT OF MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vorzsak Magdalena

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy credibility and transparency represent two powerful sources for the improvement of macroeconomic performances. In order to achieve this goal, the authors adapted the methodology developed by Kr

  15. Speed, Algorithmic Trading, and Market Quality around Macroeconomic News Announcements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.L. Scholtus (Martin); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); B.P.M. Frijns (Bart)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper documents that speed is crucially important for high frequency trading strategies based on U.S. macroeconomic news releases. Using order level data of the highly liquid S&P500 ETF traded on NASDAQ from January 6, 2009, to December 12, 2011, we find that a delay of 300

  16. Exploring Fiscal Policy at Zero Interest Rates in Intermediate Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamurthy, Srikanth; Sedgley, Norman

    2013-01-01

    Since the financial meltdown of 2007, advanced macroeconomic theory has delved more deeply into the question of the appropriate fiscal policy when the nominal interest rate is close to or at zero percent. Such analysis is typically conducted with the aid of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The policy implications are,…

  17. Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Ranaldo, Angelo

    2005-01-01

    We investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. Our results deliver insights into the dominating drivers of bond-stock comovements. We find that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact th...

  18. Extending the Principles of Intensive Writing to Large Macroeconomics Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Docherty, Peter; Tse, Harry; Forman, Ross; McKenzie, Jo

    2010-01-01

    The authors report on the design and implementation of a pilot program to extend the principles of intensive writing outlined by W. Lee Hansen (1998), Murray S. Simpson and Shireen E. Carroll (1999) and David Carless (2006) to large macroeconomics classes. The key aspect of this program was its collaborative nature, with staff from two specialist…

  19. The Use of Narrative Interview in Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Peggy

    2010-01-01

    The author describes the design and implementation of one experiential learning assignment used in a principles of macroeconomics course. The learning exercise provides an active role for students and results in a relational experience that provides traditional undergraduate students with a frame of reference with which to interpret the impact of…

  20. Macro-economic Impact Study for Bio-based Malaysia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijl, van H.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Dijk, van M.; Powell, J.P.; Tabeau, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    Deze macro-economische impactstudie (MES) biedt kwantitatieve inzichten in de macro-economische effecten van de invoering tussen nu en 2030 van groene, op palmolie gebaseerde alternatieven voor de productie van elektriciteit, brandstoffen, chemicaliën en materialen in Maleisië.This Macro-economic

  1. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  2. MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND GREENFIELD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT OF HOTEL BRANDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jože Perić

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The powerful attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI is particularly important for further development of tourism. The strategically focused attraction of FDI in tourism has a much higher significance because of the multiple effects in relation to other segments of the economy. In this context, it is necessary to highlight the investment engagement and the presence of globally branded luxury hotels. The purpose of the study is to assess the macroeconomic environment, the effects of greenfield FDI in tourism and, consequently, the presence of global hotel brands using the comparative analysis of the selected countries as the methodological basis of this study. The research results indicate that a favorable macroeconomic environment plays an important role in attracting foreign capital. Countries that have a more favorable macroeconomic environment attract more greenfield FDI, and provide a greater presence of global hotel brands, and thus greater competitiveness. Also, the political stability, the encouraging macroeconomic business conditions, the elimination of administrative and legislative barriers, the elimination of the country's image as a corrupt destination and tourism staff education at all levels are particularly important for FDI in tourism.

  3. Does retirement flexibility provide a hedge against macroeconomics risks?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adema, Y.; Bonenkamp, J.; Meijdam, Lex

    2017-01-01

    Retirement flexibility is often seen as a hedge against macroeconomic risks such as capital market risks, which justifies more risky asset portfolios. This paper analyses the robustness of this claim in both a partial equilibrium and general equilibrium setting. We show that this positive

  4. Essays in political economy and resource economic : A macroeconomic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez Acosta, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of four chapters in Political Economy and Resource Economics from a macroeconomic perspective. This collection of works emphasizes the endogenous nature of institutions and their importance for economic development. The four chapters revolve around two central questions: 1

  5. The impact of macroeconomic factors on the fluctuation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.O. Savchenko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article. The aim of this article is to identify and check how the selected macroeconomic factors are affecting the fluctuation of economic processes. According to the theory of RBC, the real economic shock could be an indirect factor that reflects the introduction of modern technologies; this fact could affect the cycle fluctuations. The results of the analysis. During the last century there were many theories of economic cycles. Each theory has its supporters and critics. But, the youngest and the most controversial is real theory of the business cycle (RBC. According to this model, the main driver of economic growth is the increasing of investment and research and development spending as well as in human capital. Ups and downs of the economy could be a specific response to unexpected shocks in the real business environment. In accordance with the tasks in the paper, it is necessary to identify and verify the macroeconomic factors that influence the fluctuations of economic processes. In addition, according to the RBC theory, there should be assessed an indirect indicator that reflects the development of modern technology. To test the impact of modern technologies on the fluctuations of GDP (the main material for the research there was adopted economic performance of European Union (EU. The EU has the highest level of economic development in the world; its GDP in 2014 was $18,5 trillion. The EU statistics indicate its level of technology and communications, one way of measurement of their development is index of ICT. The index is a synonym for «information technology» and used by the UN International Telecommunication Union. The analyzed period is 2000-2013 years. During this period, 15 new member states have joined the EU. The main components of GDP by expenditures include final consumption of households, gross capital formation (investment, government spending and net exports. Since there is no direct component to determine

  6. Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related

  7. Differential model of macroeconomic growth with endogenic cyclicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail I. Geraskin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics. Methods economic and mathematical modeling system analysis regression factor analysis econometric time series analysis. Results the article states that under unstable economic growth in Russia forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors taking into account such basic concepts as the neoKeynesian HarrodDomar model Ramsey ndash Cass ndash Koopmans model S. V. Dubovskiyrsquos concept as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multifactor differential economic growth model which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow taking into account the laborsaving and capitalsaving forms of scientifictechnical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP employment fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 19652016 in Russia on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of longwave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated which shows that after 2020 the increase of scientifictechnical progress will be negative. Scientific novelty a model is proposed of the scientifictechnical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained which endogenously takes cyclicity into account

  8. The Effects of Domestic Macroeconomic Determinants on Stock Returns: A Sector Level Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şerife Özlen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Investment analysis should be carefully performed in stock markets. Therefore, firms take necessary actions according to stock market behavior and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the predictability of stock market determinants becomes important. This study aims to identify the effects of selected macroeconomic factors (interest rate, exchange rates, inflation-consumer price index, current account deficit, unemployment rates and sector indices on stock returns of selected 48 companies in 11 different sectors of Istanbul Stock Exchange including electric, food, communication, paper, chemistry, metal-main, metal-product, stone, textile, commerce and transportation sectors. The study employs ARDL approach on the period between the second month of 2005 and the second month of 2012 including 85 monthly observations. According to the results, Sector Indices are found to be quite influential through the selected sectors. Exchanges rate is also significantly influential on almost all the sectors except Communication and Textile sectors. The impacts of Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Current Account Deficit, and Unemployment Rate are various through the selected sectors. Moreover, the influence of Istanbul Stock Exchange Market on the stock returns of considered companies is significantly clear through the sectors except six companies (two companies from Paper sector, one company from Metal-Main sector, two companies from Stone sector and one company from Textile sector out of 48 companies. Since it includes a wide range of companies and sectors, this study is expected to be useful for all policy makers and investment decisions.

  9. Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Level of Dollarization in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasnova Iryna V.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of the article are identifying causal relationships between the macroeconomic determinants and the level of dollarization in Ukraine, as well as determining the activities for de-dollarization. The prerequisites, causes and consequences of dollarization have been covered. On the external grounds, dollarization is recognized as a manifestation of financial integration, on internal grounds, as a consequence of financial instability. The main types and forms of dollarization have been allocated. Forms of financial dollarization have been considered as: deposit, credit and monetary. The determinants that potentially impact the dollarization level have been allocated. According to the results of a correlation analysis, the thesis of direct strong connection between dollarization and currency deposits, i.e. the dominance of deposit dollarization, has been confirmed. In order to determine the causal nature of the interdependencies between variables and the level of dollarization, a Granger causality test was carried out, which confirmed the hypothesis of the significant influence of psychological attitudes and the distrust of economic agents towards the policies of government and monetary authorities. A set of macroeconomic, market and incentive de-dollarization activities have been proposed.

  10. The Influence of Global Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Values: A Sector Level Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şerife Özlen

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Investors and policy makers should carefully analyze stock returns and their possible relationships with microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in both local and global arena. Since the markets are increasingly becoming global, the outcomes may be more important for international factors. Therefore, this study aims to identify the relationship between selected international macroeconomic variables (FTSE-100 England market index, GDAX Germany market index, NYSE Composite market index, Gold prices and Crude Oil prices and 48 companies in 11 different sectors (electric, food, communication, paper, chemistry, metal-main, metal-product, stone, textile, commerce and transportation in Istanbul Stock Exchange Market. ARDL is employed on the data for the period between the second month of 2005 and the second month of 2012 including 85 monthly observations. The research provides mix results for the selected sectors. Crude oil is found to be significantly effective on almost all the companies in the selected sectors. The extensive influence of gold prices on the sectors except electric and communication sectors is also observed. Global market indices (American, English and German are found to have influence in various degrees through the sectors. This research is expected to be useful in that it provides results for different sectors operating in Turkish Stock Exchange Market.

  11. The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Activity in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuya Ito

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the 1980s a large number of studies using a vector autoregressive (VAR model have been made on the macroeconomic effects of oil price changes. However, surprisingly few studies have so far focused on Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables in Russia using the VAR model. The time span covered by the series is from 1994:Q1 to 2009:Q3, giving 63 observations. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase (decrease in oil prices contributes to the depreciation (appreciation of the exchange rate by 0.17% in the long run, whereas it leads to a 0.46% GDP growth (decline. Likewise, we find that in the short run (8 quarters rising oil prices cause not only the GDP growth and the exchange rate depreciation, but also a marginal increase in inflation rate.

  12. On capital flows and macroeconomic performance: Evidence before and after the financial crisis in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magda Kandil

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper sheds light on the Turkish experience of capital account liberalization and its effect on key macroeconomic variables, using quarterly data in a multivariate VAR model. We also take into consideration the crisis breakpoint in 2001 and estimate the effect of shocks attributed to capital flows, using quarterly data during the sub-periods 1989:01–2001:01 and 2001:02–2009:03. The findings indicate that capital flows have varying effects on the Turkish economy before and after the crisis in 2001 and the evidence supports significant effects of liberalizing financial flows on macroeconomic performance, especially during the post-crisis period (2001:02–2009:03. Moreover, this latter period exhibited evidence of sterilization policy that has helped mopping up excess liquidity and containing inflationary pressures. These factors seem to signal deliberate efforts by the Central Bank of Turkey to stem the risk of appreciation of the real exchange rate and preserve export competitiveness during periods of high financial inflows, a trend that has been reversed recently by the surge in outflows and currency depreciation in many emerging markets in anticipation of imminent normalization of monetary policy in the United States.

  13. Rural Areas Feel Effects of Macroeconomic Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

    1987-01-01

    Diversification of rural economies and changes in financial markets and world trade have broken down many barriers that insulated rural areas in the past. United States rural areas--the rural South and Northeast in particular--now appear to be affected slightly more than urban areas by national monetary and fiscal policies. (JHZ)

  14. Simulation of the spatiotemporal variability of the World Ocean sea surface hight by the INM climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iakovlev, N. G.; Volodin, E. M.; Gritsun, A. S.

    2016-07-01

    The results of simulations of the World Ocean sea surface hight (SSH) in by various versions of the Climate Model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, are compared with the CNES-CLS09 fields of the mean dynamic topography (deviation of the ocean level from the geoid). Three models with different ocean blocks are considered which slightly differ in numerical schemes and have various horizontal spatial resolution, i.e., the INMCM4 model, which participated in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP Phase 5, resolution of 1° × 1/2°); the INMCM5 model, which participates in the next project, CMIP6 (resolution of 1/2° × 1/4°); and the advanced INMCM-ER eddy-resolving model (resolution of 1/6° × 1/8°). It is shown that an increase in the spatial resolution improves the reproduction of ocean currents (with Agulhas and Kuroshio currents as examples) and their variability. A probable cause of relatively high errors in the reproduction of the SSH of Southern and Indian oceans is discussed.

  15. Variability in Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicle Emission Factors from Trip-Based Real-World Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bin; Frey, H Christopher

    2015-10-20

    Using data obtained with portable emissions measurements systems (PEMS) on multiple routes for 100 gasoline vehicles, including passenger cars (PCs), passenger trucks (PTs), and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), variability in tailpipe emission rates was evaluated. Tier 2 emission standards are shown to be effective in lowering NOx, CO, and HC emission rates. Although PTs are larger, heavier vehicles that consume more fuel and produce more CO2 emissions, they do not necessarily produce more emissions of regulated pollutants compared to PCs. HEVs have very low emission rates compared to tier 2 vehicles under real-world driving. Emission factors vary with cycle average speed and road type, reflecting the combined impact of traffic control and traffic congestion. Compared to the slowest average speed and most congested cycles, optimal emission rates could be 50% lower for CO2, as much as 70% lower for NOx, 40% lower for CO, and 50% lower for HC. There is very high correlation among vehicles when comparing driving cycles. This has implications for how many cycles are needed to conduct comparisons between vehicles, such as when comparing fuels or technologies. Concordance between empirical and predicted emission rates using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES model was also assessed.

  16. ANALYSIS OF THE GDP IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA BASED ON MAJOR MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ştefan Cristian CIUCU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Republic of Moldova is listed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF and by the World Bank as a country with a transitional economy and studies of the evolution of the economy are of interest. Data has been gathered for a quantitative analysis of the economy using a multiple regression model (with the aid of computer software tools: Microsoft Excel with the Analysis ToolPak add-in and MathWorks - MATLAB, in order to determine if there is a significant importance of some major macroeconomic indicators to the GDP. The indicators used in the study are GDP, exports of goods and services (% of GDP, inflation - GDP deflator (annual %, central government debt (% of GDP and unemployment (% of total labor force.

  17. The global economic recession and the change in the macroeconomic paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana Zivkovic

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available All countries have felt the impact of the recession, the phase characteristic of negative effects such as slower economic growths (stagnation, high inflation rates and high unemployment rates. The economic crisis that has befallen even the most developed economies of the world is often compared to the crisis that happened in the 1930s, along with the attempts to pin down its causes in order to find the economic policy for its overcoming. Economic policy creators and policy decision-makers have to solve the question of how the crisis is to be overcome. Economic measures that should lead to overcoming the negative economic trends are primarily directed at encouraging aggregate supply, that is, a macroeconomic theory known as Keynesian economics based on the ideas of 30th century British economist John Maynard Keynes that he published during the Depression. Up to this day economies have not faced such a downfall as happened during this crisis, since the crisis brought about not only changes in the economic theory and the end of the so-called classic economic theories, but it also made way for a new scientific discipline based on Keynesian theory. There were changes in economic policies and an active policy of managing aggregate supply was introduced. Aggregate supply was based on monetary and fiscal expansion, that is, the world monetary and financial system. It is expected today that the crisis we are now facing will lead to the change in the dominant macroeconomic paradigm as well as to the creation of a new financial system which will be more transparent and regular.

  18. THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF ROMANIAN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru FÎNTÎNERU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is an important driver of global economic system, playing a leading role both in the economic life andsocial action contributing to the tourism potential of each individual country and economic growth, improvingliving conditions. Romania has a huge tourism potential represented by the natural environment and naturalresources, human resources, customs and traditions, a potential which unfortunately is not used to the wholes value.The paper aimed to analyze the evolution of Romanian tourism receipts in GDP, by share, positioning on the place 151 and by evolution of tourism receipts per capita in Romania compared to World average, positioning Romaniaon the place 103 out from 172 countries during the time 2003-2011, according to the information’s provided by Data World Bank.

  19. A Time Series Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Births in Romania in the period 2008-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marușa Beca

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we studied the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the observed corporate births for the Romanian economy through the Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ADL. We performed a time series analysis that uses monthly data for the period January 2008 – December 2013 in order to establish the impact of the fiscal and monetary policy adopted by the Romanian government in times of economic crisis on the firms’ demography. The corporate birth rate is an endogenous variable in a linear function model with five exogenous macroeconomic variables such as the CPI, the loans ratio to GDP, the FDI, the long term interest rate, tax rate to GDP and the lags of the dependent variable. The main finding is that the variance of the corporate birth rate variable is negatively correlated with the variances of CPI in the current month and the interest rate two months lagged. We also determined that the variance of the dependent variable was positively correlated with the variances of the loans rate two months lagged, tax rate four months ago and FDI two months lagged and FDI in the current period.

  20. Climate technology strategies. Vol. 2. The macro-economic cost and benefit or reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Capros, P.; Georgakopoulos, P. [National Technical Univ., Athens (Greece). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering; Regemorter, D. van; Proost, S. [Catholic Univ., Leuven (Belgium). Center for Economic Studies; Schmidt, T.F.N.; Koschel, H. [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany); Conrad, K. [Mannheim Univ. (Germany). Fakultaet fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik; Vouyoukas, E.L.

    1999-07-01

    Climate technology becomes more and more relevant in international environmental policy negotiations. At the Kyoto conference binding emission reduction targets have been established for several regions of the world. The major challenge is how to realize these reduction goals with minimum costs without generating new distributional and social difficulties. The book analyses the macroeconomic structural and distributional impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies for the EU and the member states. (orig.)

  1. Growth and Efficiency at the Macroeconomic Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandrina Duta

    2006-07-01

    Il y a trois variables qui déterminent la dynamique économique: la population, la technique et l’espace. L’interférence de ces variables peut être analysé par mis des effets: par l’effet quantitatif qui détermine: les niveaux et la dynamique du produit et du revenu national per total et per capita; la mesure dans la quelle l’économie s’inscrit dans trend de la croissance au long terme; la mesure dans laquelle la croissance économique détermine une mutation dans le comportement individuel et social par la revenue disponible.

  2. Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Shocks on International Commodity Prices: Emphasis on Price and Exchange Rate Pass-through Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Won Joong Kim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a structural VAR with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, U.S. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate; and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity groups. By assuming the block exogeneity of U.S. macroeconomic variables with respect to the international nonfuel commodity prices, the paper discusses how exogenous oil/macroeconomic shocks affect the international commodity prices. It finally explores which oil/macroeconomic shocks are important in explaining the variations in international commodity prices. The results show that the sources of major fluctuations in the international commodities differ greatly by commodity. Soft and hard commodity prices such as those of ‘seafood’, ‘industrial metals’, and ‘gold’ seem to be strongly affected by the financial factor. Moreover, for some commodities, price fluctuations are more affected by the financial factor than by the real factor, supporting the view of “financialization” of commodities. Those commodities include ‘vegetable oils and protein meals’, ‘meat’, ‘seafood’, and ‘industrial metals’. The financial factor is also an important source of fluctuations in the oil prices. Oil price shocks have effects on the volatilities of interest rates, money supply, and general price level instantly, as well as on the exchange rate instead of the general price two years after the shock. Over the whole forecasting horizon, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is low on the general price level but is positive and high on oil and nonfuel international commodity prices

  3. The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country. The case of Trinidad and Tobago

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorde, Troy; Thomas, Chrystol [Department of Economics, Cave Hill Campus, University of the West Indies, P.O. Box 64, Bridgetown, St. Michael (Barbados); Jackman, Mahalia [Research Department, Central Bank of Barbados, Tom Adams Financial Centre (Barbados)

    2009-07-15

    Using vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology, this paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, we find that the price of oil is a major determinant of economic activity of the country. Our impulse response functions suggest that following a positive oil price shock, output falls within the first two years followed by positive and growing response. We also investigate the macroeconomic impact of oil price volatility. Results suggest that an unanticipated shock to oil price volatility brings about random swings in the macroeconomy; however, only government revenue and the price level exhibit significant responses. With regard to the magnitude of the responses, shocks to oil price volatility tend to yield smaller macroeconomic impacts in comparison to shocks to oil prices. Variance decompositions suggest that the price of oil is a major component of forecast variation for most macroeconomic variables. Finally, Granger-causality tests indicate causality from oil prices to output and oil prices to government revenue. (author)

  4. The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorde, Troy [Department of Economics, Cave Hill Campus, University of the West Indies, P.O. Box 64, Bridgetown, St. Michael (Barbados)], E-mail: troy.lorde@cavehill.uwi.edu; Jackman, Mahalia [Research Department, Central Bank of Barbados, Tom Adams Financial Centre (Barbados); Thomas, Chrystol [Department of Economics, Cave Hill Campus, University of the West Indies, P.O. Box 64, Bridgetown, St. Michael (Barbados)

    2009-07-15

    Using vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology, this paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, we find that the price of oil is a major determinant of economic activity of the country. Our impulse response functions suggest that following a positive oil price shock, output falls within the first two years followed by positive and growing response. We also investigate the macroeconomic impact of oil price volatility. Results suggest that an unanticipated shock to oil price volatility brings about random swings in the macroeconomy; however, only government revenue and the price level exhibit significant responses. With regard to the magnitude of the responses, shocks to oil price volatility tend to yield smaller macroeconomic impacts in comparison to shocks to oil prices. Variance decompositions suggest that the price of oil is a major component of forecast variation for most macroeconomic variables. Finally, Granger-causality tests indicate causality from oil prices to output and oil prices to government revenue.

  5. The structuralist tradition in economics: methodological and macroeconomics aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FABRÍCIO MISSIO

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the structuralist tradition in economics, emphasizing the role that structures play in the economic growth of developing countries. Since the subject at hand is evidently too large to cover in a single article, an emphasis has been brought to bear upon the macroeconomic elements of such a tradition, while also exploring its methodological aspects. It begins by analysing some general aspects of structuralism in economics (its evolution and origins associated with ECLAC thought, in this instance focusing on the dynamics of the center-periphery relationship. Thereafter, the macroeconomic structuralism derived from the works of Taylor (1983, 1991 is presented, followed by a presentation of neo-structuralism. Centred on the concept of systemic competitiveness, this approach defines a strategy to achieve the high road of globalization, understood here as an inevitable process in spite of its engagement being dependent on the policies adopted. The conclusions show the genuine contributions of this tradition to economic theory.

  6. The Swedish model: an alternative to macroeconomic policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEXANDRE GUEDES VIANA

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This paper describes the main details of the Swedish economic model, which began to be structured on the 1930s and achieved its consolidation on the 1950s. The Swedish model is characterized by a macroeconomic policy which provides price stability, fiscal results for selective industrial policies and social active policies, the latter being recognized as a wide universal welfare state. This combination, which contradicts the traditional economic prescriptions, has been successful given the country was agrarian and underdeveloped until the beginni.ng of 20th century and achieved a high social-economic development level on the 1970s. Afterwards, we present the Swedish experiment as an alternative to macroeconomic management, especially due to its uniqueness.

  7. Projection of macroeconomic indicators in SME sector by 2025

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    Stevanović Mirjana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is based on an analysis of companies and entrepreneurs who have made business (performed their activity in the period of 2010-2014. We also analyzed the number of entrepreneurs, micro, small and medium enterprises, number of employees, gross social value, exports, imports, number of importers and exporters. The aim of the paper is the projection of macroeconomic indicators by 2025 in the Republic of Serbia, with emphasis put onto improvement of business conditions with the aim of Serbian economy growth. The result of the research should show that the macroeconomic projections in the SME sector are on the path of recovery and growth, but they are conditional on the quality of fiscal policy, reforms implementation pace, financial incentives, and creating an environment whose ultimate goal would be strengthening of the private sector and creating even favorable business conditions.

  8. Analysis of structural macroeconomic indicators based on harmony approach

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    Knyshenko, Tetyana

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the article the application of fractal theory and proportions of «gold section» is considered to the analysis of macroeconomic indicators, the criteria of optimum and efficiency of structure of economy are selected. An economy is represented as treelike fractal, every level of which is characterized by potential of profits (by the issue and necessity in charges. The types of structural subsystems in an economy are selected: permanent and temporal, the last arise up at violation of systems optimum. An author drew conclusion that on the certain types of economic activity structural subsystems can be effective, but they can not be named optimum, as there are deviations from the «gold section» at the certain type of the technological mode, in the issue, intermediate consumption and GVP. A conclusion about the type of the technological mode based on analysis of investment of spheres and types of economic activity in forming of macroeconomic indexes.

  9. DUAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA

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    Sri Herianingrum

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to evaluate the impact of dual monetary policy shock on macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia: growth and inflation. In addition, this study will also examine whether conventional monetary policy has a particular impact upon Islamic banking sector. This research apply VAR (vector auto regressive method on monthly data from Bank Of Indonesia during the period of January 2010 to December 2013. The result of IRF explain that the interest rate channel find the hard way to accomplished the macroeconomic goals while the Islamic monetary instrument indicates the potential growth of output and hold the inflation low. The result of VDC describes that the Islamic instrument still affected by conventional monetary policy because of slow development in Islamic monetary systemDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.1990

  10. New consensus macroeconomics and inflation targeting: Keynesian critique

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    Philip Arestis

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available A number of countries have adopted Inflation Targeting (IT since the early 1990s in an attempt to reduce inflation to low levels. Since then, IT has been praised by most literature as a superior framework of monetary policy. We suggest that IT is a major policy prescription closely associated with the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM. This paper concentrates mainly on the IT aspects of the NCM. We address the theoretical foundations of IT. This is followed by an assessment of its theoretical foundations, where a number of aspects are discussed. We then turn our attention to an assessment of the empirical work on IT, where we distinguish the work that has been done utilising structural macroeconomic models, and work based in single equation techniques. The IT theoretical framework and the available empirical evidence do not appear to support the views of the proponents.

  11. Macroeconomic policies and economic democracy in neoliberal Brazil

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    Daniel Bin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The objective of this paper is to investigate some of the forms of conduct of macroeconomic policies related to a substantive concept of democracy, characterized by popular participation - direct or through representatives - in decisions that unevenly affect the material well-being of the entire Brazilian population. Special attention is given to decisions about the country's public indebtedness in the years following the launching of the RealPlan. Empirical evidences show a limited democracy, revealed by the material inequality, which in turn reproduces political inequality and restricts real freedom. This is combined with the selective bureaucratic insulation of economic policy decisions, and the parliament's failure to deal with the macroeconomic agenda. The latter is thus left to the control of the executive branch's economic apparatus, which on one hand submits itself to substantial political influence from finance and, on the other hand, restricts popular participation in decisions on both fiscal and monetary policies.

  12. Macroeconomics, Economic Crisis and Electoral Outcomes: A National European Pool

    OpenAIRE

    Dassonneville, Ruth; Lewis-Beck, Michael

    2012-01-01

    An abundance of comparative survey research has established the presence of economic voting as a individual force in European elections. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, rests on shakier ground. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. We examine this possibility through rigorous analysis of a la...

  13. Macroeconomic Reasons of Debts in Polish Health Service

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    Kamila Szymańska

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of debts in polish health service. Author analyzes the macroeconomic reasons of this situation. As a main reasons are indicated: a specificity of the health service market, which leads to a inefficient allocation of health services, lack of reliable data on health care system, too low level of public expenditure on a health care, inappropriate allocation of public capital and a monopolistic position of the payer.

  14. Essays on macroeconomic effects of credit market fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Tripathy, Jagdish

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation includes three chapters on the macroeconomic effects of the financial system, particularly the credit market. In the first chapter, I show a causal link between household credit supply and economic activity using an exogenous shock to household credit supply by Spanish banks in Mexico resulting from macroprudential regulations in Spain. I use the variation in exposure to this shock across Mexican municipalities as a natural experiment and measure the elasticit...

  15. Essays on the stock market's reaction to macroeconomic news

    OpenAIRE

    Cenesizoglu, Tolga

    2006-01-01

    There are probably only few other questions as central to economics as the question "How do market prices react to news?". The reaction of prices to new information has interested and puzzled economists since the early years of the field. This thesis addresses several dimensions of this basic question for the specific case of the stock market. This thesis develops new theoretical models about the reaction of stock prices to macroeconomic news using new mathematical tools and techniques and te...

  16. On the Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Illegal Immigration

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xiangbo

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of illegal immigration on the native born within a dynamic general equilibrium framework with labor market frictions. A key feature of the model is that job competition is allowed for between domestic workers and illegal immigrants. We calibrate the model to match some key statistics of the postwar U.S. economy. The model predicts that in the long run illegal immigration is a boon, but the employment opportunities of domestic worke...

  17. The Failure of Macroeconomics in America

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Joseph Stiglitz

    2011-01-01

    Editor's Words On 18 March 2011, the China Association for World Economics hosted "The Presentation of the 2010 Pushan Award for Excellent Papers on International Economics " at the China Central University of Finance and Economics. Over 700 scholars and students from home and abroad attended the ceremony. Professor Joseph Stiglitz, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, presented the awards and gave a speech on "The Failure of Economics in America." The following speech transcript has been approved and edited kindly by Professor Stiglitz.

  18. [Macroeconomic recovery trends. Urban impact on the population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez Mendoza, J S

    1991-12-01

    Some reflections are presented on the impact of Mexico's macroeconomic policy on population dynamics and urban development in the immediate future as the opening and liberalization of the economic increasingly influence market forces. Although the actions envisaged in the macroeconomic policy are not yet consolidated, it is possible to foresee some of their consequences for the city and for population movement. It can be predicted that the macroeconomic policy will lead to greater economic growth and consolidation of the urban population because of positive expectations for stability and growth, and the resultant environment of confidence in the immediate future. A resurgence of private investment in goods and services directed primarily to private consumption will inevitable create demand for public investment in infrastructure and improved services. Demand for consumer durables in likely to rise, as is demand for housing. New residential zones are likely to appear and grow, changing the territorial configuration of urban areas. The urban administration should make some effort to control the growth.

  19. Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

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    Stavárek Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the evolution of effective exchange rates in nine Central and Eastern European countries in terms of development trends, volatility and cyclicality. Consequently, it provides direct empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between effective exchange rates and selected macroeconomic fundamentals, addressing a key precondition of numerous exchange rate determination models and theories that attempt to explain the role of exchange rates in the economy. The results suggest that flexible exchange rate arrangements are reflected in both nominal and real effective exchange rates having higher volatility and variability. Furthermore, the results provide mixed evidence in terms of intensity, direction and cyclicality, but show a weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for money supply. Consequently, using fundamentals for the determination of exchange rates and using the exchange rate to explain economic development may be of limited use for the countries analyzed.

  20. Net Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Shocks and Reserve Assets. The Case of Argentina (1994-2013

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    Luis N. Lanteri

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available International reserves have been used as a source of protection against the vulnerability of the balance of payments, or alternatively, as an attempt to keep a competitive real exchange rate and to promote exports. This paper explores the correlation between the net capital flows and reserves. Similarly, the impact of some macroeconomic shocks on that variable is assessed. Estimates are carried out through both, the VEC (Vector Error Correction models and quarterly data of the Argentine economy for the period 1994-2013. Results show a negative correlation between international reserves and net capital flows (reserve accumulation through current account surpluses. At the same time, the expansionary fiscal policies and the continuing and widespread price increases would adversely affect the reserves.

  1. Investment, Macroeconomic Stability and Growth: The Latin American Experience Investment, Macroeconomic Stability and Growth: The Latin American Experience

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    Patricio Rojas

    1993-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of factor accumulation, economic policies, and economic and political uncertainties on growth performance of Latin American countries in the last three decades. We extend the work of Corbo and Rojas (1992 in two directions suggested by recent work in this area. First, we extend the model by considering term of trade effects and an additional measure of distortion, the black marker premium. Second, we provide further evidence of the channels through which economic policies affect growth by endogenizing the investment rate. The main conclusions are that the terms of trade affect growth directly, and indirectly through its effect in the investment rate: the black market premium is more a measure of macroeconomic instability than of the degree of oppenness; and stability of economic policies can affect growth directly through the law of motion for growth and indirectly through investment rates. Investment, Macroeconomic Stability and Growth: The Latin American Experience

  2. Managing Success in Viet Nam: Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Capital Inflows with Limited Policy Tools

    OpenAIRE

    Menon, Jayant

    2009-01-01

    Viet Nam has experienced spectacular economic growth over the past decade, in part the result of massive foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Although much has been written on the impacts of FDI in developing countries, previous studies have generally ignored macroeconomic consequences in cost-benefit assessments. These macroeconomic aspects can be particularly important in transitional economies like Viet Nam, where some of the tools for macroeconomic stabilization may be blunt or unavai...

  3. New Keynesian macroeconomics: Entry for New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition

    OpenAIRE

    Dixon, Huw David

    2007-01-01

    This dictionary entry defines the development of new Keynesian macroeconomics (NKM) since the 1980s. I argue that the key defining feature NKM is the introduction of imperfect competition, making price and/or wage setting endogenous and hence allowing for a rigorous understanding of nominal rigidity. This has led to a shift away from perfect competition in macroeconomics. The combination of NKM with dynamic macroeconomic modelling has led to the current orthodoxy: the new-neoclassical synthes...

  4. Assessing the Macroeconomic Importance of Gasoline and Vehicle Spending

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, Danilo J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Poyer, David A. [Morehouse College, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession, real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and

  5. Common scaling behavior in finance and macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Petersen, A. M.; Njavro, M.; Stanley, H. E.

    2010-08-01

    In order to test whether scaling exists in finance at the world level, we test whether the average growth rates and volatility of market capitalization (MC) depend on the level of MC. We analyze the MC for 54 worldwide stock indices and 48 worldwide bond indices. We find that (i) the average growth rate of the MC and (ii) the standard deviation σ(r) of growth rates r decrease both with MC as power laws, with exponents αw = 0.28 ± 0.09 and βw = 0.12 ± 0.04. We define a stochastic process in order to model the scaling results we find for worldwide stock and bond indices. We establish a power-law relationship between the MC of a country's financial market and the gross domestic product (GDP) of the same country.

  6. Growth and Efficiency at the Macroeconomic Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Sîrghi

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available La croissance est un procès sous l’influence d’interférence de facteurs économiques social et politique. C’est le motif pour lequel le processus de la croissance peut être analyse parmi la dimension macroéconomique, social, mais aussi politique. C’est évident que la croissance économique peut être aprecier par mis des indicateurs macroéconomiques de resultat total et per capita. Pour l’analyse de la croissance économique et de corrélation d‘eficence, les structures de la population et de la technique sont celles qui définissent le contient multidimensionnelle de la croissance. Il y a trois variables qui déterminent la dynamique économique: la population, la technique et l’espace. L’interférence de ces variables peut être analysé par mis des effets: par l’effet quantitatif qui détermine: les niveaux et la dynamique du produit et du revenu national per total et per capita; la mesure dans la quelle l’économie s’inscrit dans trend de la croissance au long terme; la mesure dans laquelle la croissance économique détermine une mutation dans le comportement individuel et social par la revenue disponible.

  7. Income Inequalities, Productive Structure and Macroeconomic Dynamics. A Regional Approach to the Russian Case

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    Julien Vercueil

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, sustained economic growth in emerging countries (and among them, BRICS countries has attracted much attention in the western world. Multinational companies have been lured by the growing purchasing power of a significant part of the population, often presented as the “promised land” of consumer spending in durable goods, high tech services and fashion products. Of course, increasing incomes imply also significant socio-economic changes within these countries as well. A growing number of studies have been carried in order to track the evolution of income distribution in BRICS countries, and the formation and composition of a social group usually called “middle class” in western countries (Kharas (2010, SIEMS (2010, Levada (2012, Ernst and Young (2013, Kochhar R., Oates R. (2015. In this paper we try to assess the impact of recent macroeconomic fluctuations on Russian households income levels. We analyse the Russian trajectory in three different ways. First, we compare the evolution of the “middle class” in Russia with other (BRIC and western countries, using the wealthbased definition of this group proposed in the Global Wealth Report (Crédit Suisse Research Institute, 2015. Second, we go deeper into the Russian case in order to show how regional disparities regarding incomes distribution can be interpreted, considering the country’s recent macroeconomic trajectory. For this purpose, we build a productive typology of the Russian regions and study the link between each type and the level of income inequalities, using the varying structures in sources of household’s incomes as a possible explanation of regional variations. We conclude by an assessment of the remaining challenges for incomes policy in Russia

  8. Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia

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    Zulkefly Abdul Karim

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of foreign shocks upon domestic macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy, and examines the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy as a stabilization policy in Malaysia. Monetary policy variables (interest rate and money supply have been measured through a non-recursive structural VAR (SVAR identification scheme, which allows the monetary authority to set the interest rate and money supply after observing the current value of foreign variables, domestic output and inflation. The results show the important role of foreign shocks in influencing Malaysian monetary policy and macroeconomic variables. There is a real effect of monetary policy, that is, a positive shock in money supply increases domestic output. In contrast, a positive interest rates shock has a negative effect on domestic output growth and inflation. The effects of money supply and interest rate shocks on the exchange rate and stock prices are also consistent with standard economic theory. In addition, domestic monetary policy is able to mitigate the negative effect of external shocks upon domestic economy.

  9. Cosmetic surgery in times of recession: macroeconomics for plastic surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Lloyd M

    2002-10-01

    Periods of economic downturn place special demands on the plastic surgeon whose practice involves a large amount of cosmetic surgery. When determining strategy during difficult economic times, it is useful to understand the macroeconomic background of these downturns and to draw lessons from businesses in other service industries. Business cycles and monetary policy determine the overall environment in which plastic surgery is practiced. Plastic surgeons can take both defensive and proactive steps to maintain their profits during recessions and to prepare for the inevitable upturn. Care should also be taken when selecting pricing strategy during economic slowdowns.

  10. MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF BAD LOANS IN BALTIC COUNTRIES AND ROMANIA

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    Liliana DONATH

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The 2008–09 global crisis raised debates concerning the determinants of financial vulnerability. Among these, bad loans have been identified as significantly influencing financial imbalances. After a decade in which borrowing has constantly grown mainly because of the deregulation of financial markets, the crisis highlighted the importance of an effective credit risk management. The purpose of the paper is to study the evolution of bad loans ratio in relation with selected macroeconomic indicators in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and Romania.

  11. Introducción a la macroeconomía

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez-Puig, Marta

    2007-01-01

    [spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es la exposición esquematizada de los principales conceptos que debe adquirir un estudiante en la asignatura de Introducción a la Macroeconomía, con la finalidad de que pueda ser utilizado como material docente complementario en la explicación de la citada materia tanto en la Licenciatura en Economía como en la de Administración y Dirección de Empresas. De ese modo, los dos primeros temas tienen como objetivo definir las principales magnitudes macroeconómicas...

  12. Macroeconomic Determinants of Skilled Labour Migration: The Case of Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Chuie Hong; Solucis Santhapparaj, A.

    In this study, macroeconomic determinants of immigration are analysed with pooled cross-country and time series data on skilled immigration into Malaysia from 39 countries during 1998-2004. Results demonstrate clearly that both high frequency (such as differences in cyclical economic conditions) and low frequency determinants (such as differences in levels of economic development) have been important for determinants of immigration into Malaysia. Immigration is determined by the income growth of Malaysia, change in Malaysian unemployment rate and population of the source countries. Year-to-year changes in skilled immigration flows are dominated by economic fluctuation.

  13. The Birth of the Regulated Company in the Macroeconomic Environment

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    Alexandru BODISLAV

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This research analyzes the mode of evolution of an economy at macroeconomic level, backward-pyramidal evolution from the capitalism structure, the appearance of the free enterprise and the corporate form of business organizations in our free market based system, at microeconomic level.The purpose of this paper is to enter the understanding of the specificities of the plurality of facets of the governance process. The target of this research paper are privately owned companies, but held publicly (by social parts owners or shareholders and expressed through the state – corporation relation with its geo-social-political-economic influences.

  14. Teaching Macroeconomics after the Crisis: A Survey among Undergraduate Instructors in Europe and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gärtner, Manfred; Griesbach, Björn; Jung, Florian

    2013-01-01

    The Great Recession raised questions of what and how macroeconomists teach at academic institutions around the globe, and what changes in the macroeconomics curriculum should be made. The authors conducted a survey of undergraduate macroeconomics instructors affiliated with colleges and universities in Europe and the United States at the end of…

  15. Teaching Macroeconomics after the Crisis: A Survey among Undergraduate Instructors in Europe and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gärtner, Manfred; Griesbach, Björn; Jung, Florian

    2013-01-01

    The Great Recession raised questions of what and how macroeconomists teach at academic institutions around the globe, and what changes in the macroeconomics curriculum should be made. The authors conducted a survey of undergraduate macroeconomics instructors affiliated with colleges and universities in Europe and the United States at the end of…

  16. Economies: An Open Access Journal for the Field of Development Macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralf Fendel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Economies (ISSN 2227-7099 is a new international, peer-reviewed open access journal for the academic fields of development economics and macroeconomics. While the latter seems to be clearly defined, development economics is not, because it is related to nearly all traditional economic sub-disciplines such as macroeconomics, international trade and finance, as well as microeconomics and public finance. Typically, academic field journals of development economics cover all those economic sub-disciplines. Economies instead focuses mainly on the macroeconomic perspective of economic development and it intends to publish academic research that is of strong macroeconomic policy relevance. In general, contributions in Economies should foster understanding of the macroeconomic process of economic development, with the process of development not exclusively being reserved to what we typically call developing countries. Also, the group of developed economies is still developing in the sense of improving their living standards further.

  17. Effects of the Current Economic Crisis on the Fiscal Variables in EU Countries

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    Iulian Viorel BRAŞOVEANU

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Our paper aims to capture the effects of the current economic and financial crisis on fiscal variables, the 27 EU Member States, based on macroeconomic developments until 2010 and projected for 2011. Starting from the economic recession, from the increase of unemployment and the relative stability of prices in the EU overall (macroeconomic developments that characterize the current crisis, we analyze the effects of those developments on the public revenues and expenditures, on the conventional deficit and public debt, which are macroeconomic variables that comprise the pentagon of economic macro stabilization.

  18. Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, N. J.; Ribeiro, Marcelo B.

    2013-05-01

    This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin’s (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD). This is formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the population (˜99%), with the Pareto power law, representing the tiny richest part (˜1%). In line with Goodwin’s original model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the workers and the Paretian component with the class of capitalists. Since the GPD parameters are obtained for each year and the Goodwin macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use previously determined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters, as well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these quantities in Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin dynamics. This is done in the original Goodwin model and an extension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far as Brazilian data is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and quantitative agreement with both models in the studied time period, although the original one provides better data fit. Nevertheless, both models fall short of a good empirical agreement as they predict single center cycles which were not found in the data. We discuss the specific points where the Goodwin dynamics must be improved in order to provide a more realistic representation of the dynamics of economic systems.

  19. The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis

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    Giri A. K.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present study is to examine the long run and the short run relationship between stock price and a set of macroeconomic variables for Indian economy using annual data from 1979 to 2014. The long run relationship is examined by implementing the ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration. VECM method is used to test the short and long run causality and variance decomposition is used to predict long run exogenous shocks of the variables. The results confirm a long run relationship among the variables. Evidence suggests that Economic growth, inflation and exchange rate influence stock prices positively. However, crude oil price influences the stock price negatively. This implies that the increase in oil price induces inflationary expectation in the mind of investors and hence stock prices are adversely affected. The VECM result indicates that short run and long run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and FDI to stock prices in India. The result of the variance decomposition shows that stock market development in India is mostly explained by its own shocks. The Government can take steps to control the crude oil price in India and Investors’ confidence has to be gained by boosting the economic growth of the economy through appropriate policy tools.

  20. DEVELOPMENT OF TIGHT OIL RESOURCES IN USA: PROFITABILITY OF EXPLOITATION AND EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN VOLATILE OIL PRICE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Strpić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Large scale development of tight oil resources in US started after 2010. with following five-year period of favorable steady increase in crude oil price. During this relatively short expansion cycle, operating and capital expenses changed drastically for main tight oil plays due to technological improvements in both well drilling and completion, expansion of service sector as well as loose government monetary policy which allowed favorable financing. This paper analyzed trends in costs during expansion period, as well as correlation of oil price to number of operating rigs and production quotas. After 2008/2009. world financial crisis economy recovery in US was somewhat sluggish and it caused extreme volatile environment in both equity and commodity markets. In such volatile environment intra-day crude oil prices, as well as other commodities and equities, show significant reaction to monthly published macroeconomic indicator reports, which give better overviews of trends in economic recovery. Prior to announcement, these reports always have forecasted value determined by consensus among market analysts. Therefore, any positive or negative surprise in real value tends to influence price of oil. This paper investigated influence of such macroeconomic reports to closing intraday oil price, as well as effect of other important daily market indices. Analysis showed that only Producer Price Index (PPI, among other indicators, has statistical significance of affecting intraday closing oil price.

  1. A Comparison of Foreign Direct Investments in Eurosian Countries to World Trend in the Period of 1995 - 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayri Tuzla

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The world which rapidly globalizes and where the boundaries diminish day by day, the foreign direct investments affect many diverse macroeconomic variables, specifically economic growth and unemployment. Most current studies support that there exists a strong causality relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth.On the other hand, there exists a weaker positive causality relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investments. Moreover, it is an undeniable fact that the economic growth leads to a decline in unemployment. This study aims to compare the foreign direct investment trends of seven Eurasian countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in the period of 1995 and 2011. The results are compared to both the world foreign direct investment trend and the other Central Asian countries.

  2. Cognition in an ever-changing world: climatic variability is associated with brain size in Neotropical parrots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Alonso, Wladimir J; Ottoni, Eduardo B

    2008-01-01

    Research on the conditions favoring the evolution of complex cognition and its underlying neural structures has increasingly stressed the role of environmental variability. These studies suggest that the ability to learn, behave flexibly and innovate would be favored under unpredictable variations in the availability of resources, as it would enable organisms to adjust to novel conditions. Despite the growing number of studies based on the idea that larger-brained organisms would be better prepared to cope with environmental challenges, direct testing of the association between brain size and environmental variability per se remains scant. Here we focus on Neotropical parrots as our model group and test the hypothesis that if relatively larger brains were favored in climatically variable environments, larger-brained species should currently tolerate a higher degree of environmental uncertainty. Although we show that there are also other factors underlying the dynamics of brain size variation in this group, our results support the hypothesis that proportionally larger-brained species are more tolerant to climatic variability, both on a temporal and spatial scale. Additionally, they suggest that the differences in relative brain size among Neotropical parrots represent multiple, recent events in the evolutionary history of the group, and are particularly tied to an increased dependence on more open and climatically unstable habitats. As this is the first study to present evidence of the link between brain size and climatic variability in birds, our findings provide a step towards understanding the potential benefits underlying variation in brain size and the maintenance of highly enlarged brains in this and other groups.

  3. The Efficiency of the European Non-Life Insurance: CEO Power, Macroeconomic, and Market Characteristics Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walid Bahloul

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A numbers of studies focusing on the determinant of the insurance market efficiency have increased in the last decade. In fact, many factors, like the CEO’s power, can influence the efficiency in the insurance firm. The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between efficiency, measured by the cost function using the stochastic frontier approach (SFA methodologies, and the market structure, as well as the macroeconomic variables. In addition, it focuses on identifying the impact of the integration of the CEO power variable in the cost function on this relation. The result shows that after the consideration of the CEO power score in the cost efficiency, the relation between insurance efficiency and the determinant of market development, as well as the domestic economy, has changed and become more significant. The result also shows that the firms become more efficient and more profitable with a higher concentration ratio and this is in accordance with the structure-conduct-performance (SCP theory.

  4. La neutralidad del dinero y la dicotomía clásica en la macroeconomía

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giraldo P Andrés Felipe

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Uno de los temas que se estudia en macroeconomía es el efecto de las variables nominales, en particular del dinero, sobre las variables reales. En este artículo se presenta una revisión teórica del punto de vista de las escuelas más representativas acerca de la neutralidad del dinero y de la dicotomía clásica, aspectos que tienen grandes repercusiones de política monetaria, y que junto con la posición que se adopte en la discusión sobre reglas o discreción determinan la
    ejecución de la política monetaria.

  5. Chinese Macroeconomic Stabilisation and Reform: A Briefing Note

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BryaneMichael

    2004-01-01

    While reform of the Chinese public and external sectors has promoted growth, it has also led to increasing macroeconomic volatility. Such volatility has largely been due to China's de facto administrative and fiscal decentralisation and its de jure attempts at reasserting central control through fiscal and commercial regulation. Section Ⅱ will discuss some reasons for China's rapid economic growth and discuss the macro-level influences which caused output and inflation instability in the period 1979-1996. Section Ⅲ will discuss the effects of public sector reform on output and prices. Section Ⅳ will explore trade reform's effects on output and prices. The conclusion will discuss implications for stabilisation -where “stabilisation” is taken to comprise economic policies aimed at reducing inflation while promoting long-term output growth.

  6. The macroeconomics of targeting: the case of an enduring epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Clive; Gersbach, Hans

    2009-01-01

    What is the right balance among policy interventions in order to ensure economic growth over the long run when an epidemic causes heavy mortality among young adults? We argue that, in general, policies to combat the disease and promote education must be concentrated, in certain ways, at first on some subgroups of society. This concentration involves what we term the macroeconomics of targeting. The central comparison is then between programs under which supported families enjoy the benefits of spending on health and education simultaneously (DT), and those under which the benefits in these two domains are sequenced (ST). When levels of human capital are uniformly low at the outbreak, DT is superior to ST if the mortality rate exceeds some threshold value. Outside aid makes DT more attractive; but DT restricts support to fewer families initially and so increases inequality. A summary account of the empirical evidence is followed by an application of the framework to South Africa.

  7. An account of new developmentalism and its structuralist macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate.

  8. The effects of discretionary fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevan Gaber

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We review the evidence on the practice and effects of discretionary fiscal policy, particularly in the context of recent efforts to stimulate the economy, reaching two main conclusions. First, policy interventions have increased in this decade, pre-dating the 2009 stimulus. Second, despite a large economic literature on the topic, the state of theory and evidence is not as "shovel ready" as one would like. Although consumption and investment clearly respond to tax incentives and structural vector autoregressions show that lower taxes and higher government purchases can boost output, it is difficult to apply the findings in the current context, in part because multipliers and policy lags are likely to vary with economic conditions. This paper surveys the theoretical predictions and recent empirical Vector Autoregression (VAR evidence on the short-run effects of discretionary fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates.

  9. ROMANIA MEASURES UNDERTAKEN TO OVERCOME THE CRISIS MACROECONOMIC POLICIES THROUGH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MUNGIU-PUPĂZAN MARIANA CLAUDIA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This research paper is intended to be an analysis of the measures taken by the Romanian economic recoverythrough levers it has at hand, namely macroeconomic policies. Current financial and economic crisis appears to beunprecedented in the last half century. Whether it's a financial crisis or an economic one, we can talk about theeconomy installing a pronounced instability, uncertainty and insecurity about the future. There is a significantdecrease in the volume of transactions on the stock exchange, lack of trust in the financial system, a disturbance ofmarket mechanisms.The crisis has caused and continues to cause effects in various sectors of the economy, includingjob losses. Following the severe global economic problems, the crisis has spread rapidly in all areas.States have beenthe subject of theoretical dispute for decades, and these arguments have been rekindled with interventions bygovernments of countries affected by the recent crisis.

  10. MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES IN POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Bieniasz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this work is to analyse the phenomenon of enterprises’ bankruptcy in Poland in 2004-2013 and attempt to build regression models defining the relationship between the number of bankrupted companies and selected macroeconomic parameters of the national economy. The analysis is based on Coface Poland reports presenting the phenomenon of bankruptcy in Poland of branches, provinces, legal forms of companies and types of bankruptcy proceedings. Studies have shown that the greatest risk of bankruptcy refers to metals production and fabricated metal products enterprises, manufacture of food products and beverages, wholesale trade, construction, micro and small enterprises, enterprises under the age of 10 years and companies from Mazovia region, Silesia and Lower Silesia. The estimated parameters of the regression models showed that the number of bankruptcies in Poland is strongly determined i.a. by the number of registered companies, GDP growth, dynamics of changes in fixed capital formation and changes in foreign exchange rates.

  11. Macroeconomic determinants of migration from Romania to Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Simionescu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Taken into account various economic theories trying to explain the reasons that stay behind the decision to migrate to another country, this study uses empirical data to identify some macroeconomic motives for migrating from Romania to Italy. According to the estimations based on fast ridge regression, the stock of Romanian immigrants from Italy in the period 2002-2016 was influenced by: the real GDP per capita in Romania, real GDP per capita in Italy and life expectancy at birth in Italy. The number of Romanian migrants attracted each year in Italy in a period marked also by the global financial crisis (2007-2016 was related to factors like: real GDP per capita in Italy life expectancy at birth in Italy, unemployment rate and taxes on income, profits and capital gains in Italy. The overall results indicated that the better standard of life in Italy was a good incentive for Romanian migrants

  12. Transportation technology transitions and macroeconomic growth -- Contemporary evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, D.J.

    1994-12-31

    This paper presents international and temporal extensions of evidence for a theory developed by the author concerning the interaction of transportation technology transitions and macroeconomic growth. The period 1970 to the present is examined for the nations of Japan, the US, and Europe (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom collectively). An addition to the abstract logic supporting the general arguments of the theory is also presented. The theory has been developed concerning the role of significant transportation technology transitions as a cause of significant macroeconomic declines in nations for which the manufacture of transportation vehicles (ships, locomotives, and automobiles) is a dominant economic activity. The theory offers an explanation for periods of pronounced multiyear decline in economic growth rate--sometimes called depressions and sometimes called stagnations. One purpose of this paper is to explore whether or not Japan and Europe have each recently experienced a multiyear event of this type. In the theory and the evidence presented for it, environmental regulation of transportation vehicles has been shown to be an initiating cause of significant technical change, with sharp, sustained fuel price increases being a second frequent initiating cause. These causes of significant technical change, and their possible consequences, are potentially important considerations for those proposing policies to deal with global warming, since both fuel economy regulation and fuel price increases have been recommended by policy analysts as means to reduce transportation`s contribution to global warming. The theory has been offered and supported by publications developing mathematical models and examining US historical evidence consistent with the theory.

  13. Expecting the Unexpected Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gajendra S. Chauhan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Analysts have been comparing a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy, to estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy. Both scenarios required assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change and non-climate policies like taxes. Approach: The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic shocks to growth in developing countries or a global financial crisis on the performance of three climate policy regimes: A globally-harmonized carbon tax; a global cap and trade system and the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid. The G-cubed dynamic general equilibrium model has been used to explore how the shocks would affect emissions, prices, incomes and wealth under each regime. Results: It has been found that a global cap and trade regime will significantly change the way growth shocks will otherwise be transmitted between regions while price-based systems such as a global carbon tax or a hybrid policy will not. Moreover, in case of a financial meltdown, a price based system will enable significant emissions reductions at low economic cost whereas a quantity target base system will lead to loss of the opportunity for low cost emission reduction because the target is fixed. Conclusion: The results of this study have explored these issues by examining the effects of shocks that have actually occurred in the past decade: A surprising surge of economic growth in developing countries and a global financial crisis. Quantity based approaches such as a global permit trading regime tend to buffer some kinds of macro-economic shocks: Carbon prices rise and fall with the business cycle. However, price-based approaches such as a global carbon tax or a McKibbin Wilcoxen Hybrid would provide stronger firewalls to prevent adverse events in one carbon market from causing a collapse of the global system.

  14. On the Transmission Mechanism of the Chinese Land Policy in Macroeconomic-control: A Theoretical Study Based on Modified IS-LM Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Linlin; DIAO; Jinming; YAN

    2014-01-01

    The purposes of this paper are to bring land factor into the general fame of national product and develop a new modified‘IS-LM equilibrium model’,aiming to find out the impacts of land factor on the effective allocation of capital between total supply and total demand constituting gross national product,to analyze the relation mechanism among land factor and macroeconomic variables,and to discuss the theoretical mechanism under which land,fiscal and monetary policy are integrated. Methods employed include econometrics and model analysis. The results indicate that:( i) on the conditions that the equilibrium of supply and demand in land market,the modified IS-LM model taking into account land factor successfully performs transmission mechanism of land policy participation in macroeconomic-control by means of money capital regulation;( ii) the direction and intensity of land policy control are effected by elasticity of land supply and land price,meanwhile different characteristics of land supply elasticity exit in different stages of economic development;( iii) the realization of IS-LM equilibrium requires the aggregate effects of fiscal,monetary and land policy. It is concluded that land policies for macroeconomic-control drives land price higher,and land supply regulation would diminish financial effect. During the economic expansion or recovery period,the effect of expansionary land policy would be counteracted by high land price. During the economic transition or recession period,the government could control economical operation better through tightening land policy.

  15. Gender as a Macro Economic Variable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.P. van Staveren (Irene)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ This chapter will analyse how gender can be used in a meaningful way in macroeconomic analysis. The challenge is that gender cannot be measured easily at the macro level. This is either because current gender variables are one-dimensional and miss out much gender –relev

  16. Gender as a Macro Economic Variable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.P. van Staveren (Irene)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ This chapter will analyse how gender can be used in a meaningful way in macroeconomic analysis. The challenge is that gender cannot be measured easily at the macro level. This is either because current gender variables are one-dimensional and miss out much gender –relev

  17. THE ROLE OF SAVINGS RATE IN DEEPENING MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES IN CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarlea Mihaela

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that China is a growing power and its impressive economic indicators have been the subject of numerous studies along the years. China’s impressive economics growth in the years 2000 based on one hand by an expansionary monetary policy, on other hand by promoting export growth had also brought into discussion another factor: that of the high savings rate. This article brings into light China’s high savings rate -household, corporate and governmental- each with its role played in the entire equation of China’s growth. There have been a lot of studies concentrating on this relationship between savings rate and economic growth. It appears that, in the case of China there is a positive relationship between high savings and high economic growth at least on the short run. This is due to the national savings rate which contributed to current account surplus that facilitated outflow and inflow of capital. Domestic investments and foreign growth had contributed to rapid economic growth despite the low level of consumption. If we add here the low demand for imported goods and the growth of households saving rate in the last year we have an image of deep macroeconomic imbalances. Furthermore, if we add to this analysis the idea of an external saving rate that proved to grow quicker than the world capacity to absorb this flows we have a vivid image of an empire as „rich country, poor population”. This high savings rate in the long run will deepen macroeconomic imbalances. As a spiral this would have to accelerate reforms in the field of pensions, healthcare, social security. On top they would have to encourage the development of the banking system in order to create an image of a powerful country also in the long run. With these internal reforms the savings rate for households will encourage consumption and a normal level of savings, for corporations it will boost investments and for government it will lead to a balance account

  18. Effects of the Washington Consensus on the Macroeconomic Stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasumović Merim

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available With regard to the specific situation and problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina this paper will analyse the effects caused by adhering to the rules of the Washington Consensus, and thus will determine to which extent they have influenced the stability of the macroeconomic indicators in Bosnia and Herzegovina and will explain how the rules affect the stability of macroeconomic indicators of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The main thesis of the Washington Consensus is that by following the measures of the same the macroeconomic situation in the country becomes more stabilised. However, stabilization often cannot sustain in the long term and this situation in the economy can be regarded as quasi-macroeconomic stability.

  19. Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance [with Comments and Discussion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jeffrey R. Campbell; Charles L. Evans; Jonas D. M. Fisher; Alejandro Justiniano

    2012-01-01

    .... We distinguish between Odyssean forward guidance, which publicly commits the FOMC to a future action, and Delphic forward guidance, which merely forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions...

  20. Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear...

  1. The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.J. de Zwart (Gerben); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents empirical evidence that security analysts do not efficiently use publicly available macroeconomic information in their earnings forecasts for emerging market stocks. Analysts completely ignore forecasts on political stability, while these provide valuable information

  2. Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

  3. Macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility: A case of South Asian countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yahya Waqas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Macroeconomic factors play a pivotal role in attracting foreign investment in the country. This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility in South Asian countries. The monthly data is collected for the period ranging from 2000 to 2012 for four Asian countries i.e. China, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka because monthly data is ideal for measuring portfolio investment volatility. For measuring volatility in foreign portfolio investment, GARCH (1,1 is used because shocks are responded quickly by this model. The results reveal that there exists significant relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility. Thus, less volatility in international portfolio flows is associated with high interest rate, currency depreciation, foreign direct investment, lower inflation, and higher GDP growth rate of the host country. Thus findings of this study suggest that foreign portfolio investors focus on stable macroeconomic environment of country.

  4. The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.J. de Zwart (Gerben); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents empirical evidence that security analysts do not efficiently use publicly available macroeconomic information in their earnings forecasts for emerging market stocks. Analysts completely ignore forecasts on political stability, while these provide valuable information

  5. RESEARCH ON A DYNAMICAL MACRO-ECONOMIC MODELBASED ON SIDRAUSKI MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TangJianping; XuJiuping

    2001-01-01

    Abstract. This paper formulates a kind of dynamical macro-economic model based onSidrauski's work,then presents the sufficient and necessary conditions of the stability of modelat equilibrium states ,and shows some results for special production functions.

  6. USE OF THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL IN MACRO-ECONOMICAL ANALYSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin ANGHELACHE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the fundamental aspects of the linear regression, as a toolbox which can be used in macroeconomic analyses. The article describes the estimation of the parameters, the statistical tests used, the homoscesasticity and heteroskedasticity. The use of econometrics instrument in macroeconomics is an important factor that guarantees the quality of the models, analyses, results and possible interpretation that can be drawn at this level.

  7. The impact of e-business technologies on supply chain operations: a macroeconomic perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Amit Basu; Thomas F. Siems

    2004-01-01

    New information technologies and e-business solutions have transformed supply chain operations from mass production to mass customization. This paper assesses the impact of these innovations on economic productivity, focusing on the macroeconomic benefits as supply chain operations have evolved from simple production and planning systems to today's real-time performance-management information systems using advanced e-business technologies. While many factors can influence macroeconomic variab...

  8. Animal spirits, liquidity-preference and Keynesian behavioural macroeconomics: An intertemporal framework

    OpenAIRE

    Koutsobinas, Theodore

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The utilization of a real-interest rate rule in Romer’s new-Keynesian IS-MP approach, which is consistent with new synthesis intertemporal baseline macroeconomic models, provides a contemporary alternative to the standard old-Keynesian IS-LM model and moves back the emphasis on general accounts of the macroeconomic process. Despite its merits, the IS-MP approach neglects completely the influence of the liquidity-preference typically associated in pure Keynes framework with the imp...

  9. Business failures, macroeconomic risk and the effect of recessions on long-run growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santoro, Emiliano; Gaffeo, Edoardo

    2009-01-01

    relationship between transitory disturbances and productivity growth. Panel ECM estimates suggest that macroeconomic risk factors impinge on business failures on the same direction both in the short and in the long-run, and that the adjustment to the steady-state relationship is quite slow. Thus, our findings...... lend support to the risk-aversion theory of productivity growth and indicate that bankruptcy risks play a significant role in the propagation of macroeconomic shocks....

  10. Macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility: A case of South Asian countries

    OpenAIRE

    Waqas, Yahya; Hashmi, Shujahat Haider; Nazir, Muhammad Imran

    2015-01-01

    Macroeconomic factors play a pivotal role in attracting foreign investment in the country. This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility in South Asian countries. The monthly data is collected for the period ranging from 2000 to 2012 for four Asian countries i.e. China, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka because monthly data is ideal for measuring portfolio investment volatility. For measuring volatility in foreign portfolio inve...

  11. The History of Macroeconomics from Keynes’s General Theory to the Present

    OpenAIRE

    De Vroey, Michel; Malgrange, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a contribution to the forthcoming Edward Elgar Handbook of the History of Economic Analysis volume edited by Gilbert Faccarello and Heinz Kurz. Its aim is to introduce the reader to the main episodes that have marked the course of modern macroeconomics: its emergence after the publication of Keynes’s General Theory, the heydays of Keynesian macroeconomics based on the IS-LM model, disequilibrium and non-Walrasian equilibrium modelling, the invention of the natural rate of unempl...

  12. The History of Macroeconomics from Keynes’s General Theory to thePresent

    OpenAIRE

    De Vroey, Michel; Malgrange, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a contribution to the forthcoming Edward Elgar Handbook of the History of Economic Analysis volume edited by Gilbert Faccarello and Heinz Kurz. Its aim is to introduce the reader to the main episodes that have marked the course of modern macroeconomics: its emergence after the publication of Keynes’s General Theory, the heydays of Keynesian macroeconomics based on the IS-LM model, disequilibrium and non-Walrasian equilibrium modelling, the invention of the natural rate of unempl...

  13. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  14. The problem of natural funnel asymmetries: a simulation analysis of meta-analysis in macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callot, Laurent; Paldam, Martin

    2011-06-01

    Effect sizes in macroeconomic are estimated by regressions on data published by statistical agencies. Funnel plots are a representation of the distribution of the resulting regression coefficients. They are normally much wider than predicted by the t-ratio of the coefficients and often asymmetric. The standard method of meta-analysts in economics assumes that the asymmetries are because of publication bias causing censoring and adjusts the average accordingly. The paper shows that some funnel asymmetries may be 'natural' so that they occur without censoring. We investigate such asymmetries by simulating funnels by pairs of data generating processes (DGPs) and estimating models (EMs), in which the EM has the problem that it disregards a property of the DGP. The problems are data dependency, structural breaks, non-normal residuals, non-linearity, and omitted variables. We show that some of these problems generate funnel asymmetries. When they do, the standard method often fails. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. A study on the effect of macroeconomics instability index on private investment in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Saki

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we perform an empirical study to investigate the impact of economical stability on the amount of investment coming from the private sector. We calculate macroeconomics instability index (MIX using the existing methods in the literature. We have also used Glezakos (1973 method [Glezakos,C.(1973. Export instability and economic growth: A statistical verification. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21(3, 670-678.], which considers long-term deviation of real values as instability index. Therefore, we use four variables of inflation rate (TINF, the ratio of budget deficit on growth domestic product (GDP (TBD, foreign debt on GDP (TFD and the ratio of actual currency rate on nominate currency (TFD. The preliminary results show that the short-term changes on LNIP with one lag and LNIV have positive impact on LNIP. In addition, any short term changes on LNMII has negative and meaningful impact on LNIP and approximately 0.67 percent of difference between the actual and long term are discounted in each period. The results indicate that instability index has negative effect even in short term on Iran's industry. This shows the relevant importance of instability on economy.

  16. The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Maria SĂNDICĂ

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to make an analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic mechanisms of propagation of shocks in the Romanian economy based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE that is based on optimizing behaviour of economic agents, using micro-foundations incorporating nominal rigidities in prices and wages. The model developed is Neo-Keynesian type model and is described based on the Christiano et al (2005 and Smets and Wouters (2003. It incorporates persistence in consumption, sticky prices and wages in Calvo sense, costs of adjustment of investment, variable capacity utilization and fixed costs in production. The model takes into account also the liquidity constraints consumers - rule of thumb, element introduced by Galí et al (2007. Another assumption of the model is the consideration of imports as an input in production, under the approach of McCallum and Nelson (2001. Changes over the standard dynamic stochastic equilibrium are related to inflation inertia generated by the learning process. An innovative element is the consideration of two monetary regimes considering adopting inflation targeting strategy in Romania in August 2005. Structural break is explicitly considered by considering two sub-samples and the estimation process of parameters is in two stages similar to the approach proposed by Jakab (2008.

  17. Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rilind Kabashi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the short- to medium-term effects of fiscal policy on output and other macroeconomic variables in European Union countries between 1995 and 2012, with particular reference to transition countries. It applies Panel Vector Auto Regression with recursive identification of government spending shocks as the most appropriate method for the aim of the study and the sample used. The main results indicate that expansionary spending shocks have a positive, but a relatively low effect on output, with the fiscal multiplier around one in the year of the shock and the following year, and lower thereinafter. There are indications that this result is driven by the recent crisis, as multipliers are considerably lower in the pre-crisis period. Effects of fiscal policy are strongly dependent on country structural characteristics. Fiscal multipliers are higher in new European Union member states, in countries with low public debt and low trade openness. Further, spending shocks are followed by rising debt levels in old member states, which could be related well to the recent European debt crisis. Finally, the analysis of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy yields results that are consistent with both extended Real Business Cycle models and extended New Keynesian models.

  18. Evidence of Macroeconomic Policy Effects over Company-Sector Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara Madaleno

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Given that stock markets may act as an economy mirror, it is explored the sensitivity of company-sector-specific stock returns to macroeconomic news reflecting different economic environments for the UK, US, Germany, Japan and Australian markets between March 1993 and February 2013 using monthly data. Results seem to indicate that portfolio investors need to be aware that movements in the market index is the best predictor to forecast stock returns of individual companies and sectors in developed economies. Sentiment influences individual company’s returns of the utilities sector, even if these are considered of limited growth and stable earnings, for UK, USA and Australia, turning investor confidence a relevant variable to be included. Information increases about industrial production have no influence on company and sector stocks, thus not affecting investor’s decision in developed countries. As for Japan, results seem to indicate that the higher the need of oil imports of a country, the higher will be the positive impact of oil price changes over company returns. Finally, the riskless interest rate has no effect on sector stock returns independently of the country under analysis. For developed economies, we confirm the finding that stocks cannot be used as a hedge against inflation.

  19. ATTAINMENT OF HIGHER ENROLLMENT RATES IN PAKISTAN: A MACROECONOMIC AND ECONOMETRIC STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Furrukh Bashir

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Education is always considered as the major determinant for the development of any economy. Enrollment at various levels also shows that how much education is common within the citizens of the country. Considering the importance of enrollment, the current study examines the influence of some macroeconomic variables on various levels i.e. primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. Time series data has been gathered on consumer price index, government revenue, employed labor force, government expenditure, and health expenditure for the period from 1972 to 2010. For long run estimates, Johansen Co integration test is used and short run estimates are taken through error correction model. The results of the study exhibit positive association of employed labor force, government expenditure and health expenditure with primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. On the other side, consumer price index and government revenue have been found to be inversely influencing enrollment at various levels. Short run results are also much favorable for the economy and reveals convergence towards long run equilibrium due to any disturbances in the short run period. At the end study gives some policy implications that government should decrease consumer price index and tax rate and to increase government expenditure in terms of education and health for higher enrollment rates in Pakistan.

  20. Macroeconomic Determinants of the Stock Market Index and Policy Implications: The Case of a Central European Country

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    Yu HSING

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between Hungary’s stock market index and relevant macroeconomic variables. The GARCH model is applied in empirical work. It finds that Hungary’s stock market index has a positive relationship with real GDP, the ratio of the government debt to GDP, the nominal effective exchange rate and the German stock market index, a negative relationship with the real interest rate, the expected inflation rate and the government bond yield in the euro area, and a quadratic relationship with real M2 money supply. It indicates that there is a positive (negative relationship if real M2 money supply is less (greater than the critical value of 9,563 billion forints. If the quadratic relationship is not specified and tested, the positive coefficient of real M2 will be insignificant at the 10% level, and we may reach a misleading conclusion that the stock market index is not affected by real M2.

  1. An investigation on the relationship between arbitrage and macro-economic indicators: A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Fazli

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of macro-economic factors on the performance of stocks listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. The proposed study considers the effects of money supply, inflation rate, oil price, unforeseen changes in the course structure of interest rates as well as unanticipated changes in industrial production on stock price. Using seasonal information of stock price over the period 1997-2007 as well as regression analysis, the study has determined that risk premium of unforeseen changes in the course structure of interest rates, money supply, inflation rate and unanticipated changes in industrial production are meaningful when the level of significance is five percent. In other words, Arbitrage pricing theory model describing the expected return per share is reasonable and macro-level variables explain systematic risk on TSE.

  2. Algunas Reflexiones Metodológicas en torno al Estado Actual de la Macroeconomía.

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    Felipe Morandé

    1986-03-01

    Full Text Available Algunas Reflexiones Metodológicas en torno al Estado Actual de la Macroeconomía Is Macroeconomics dying as an autonomous sub-discipline? This paper postulates that Macroeconomics understood as a different method (inhereted from Keynes to explain aggregate phenomena is really the subject under attack. The preocupation for aggregate problems like the business cycle, unemployment. and inflation is being translated nowadays in models that tend to be more in agreement with mainstream economic theory. This perspective allows a different look at what the relevant theoretical issues are in discussing macroeconomics in developing countries.

  3. Poverty and macroeconomic performance across space, race, and family structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gundersen, Craig; Ziliak, James P

    2004-02-01

    We examined the effects of macroeconomic performance and social policy on the extent and depth of poverty in America using state-level panel data from the 1981-2000 waves of the Current Population Survey. We found that a strong macroeconomy at both the state and national levels reduced both the number of families who were living in poverty and the severity of poverty. The magnitude and source of these antipoverty effects, however, were not uniform across family structures and racial groups or necessarily over time. While gains in the eradication of poverty, in general, were tempered by rising wage inequality, simulations indicated that female-headed families and families that were headed by black persons experienced substantial reductions in poverty in the 1990s largely because of the growth in median wages. An auxiliary time-series analysis suggests that the expansions in the federal Earned Income Tax Credit of the 1990s accounted for upward of 50% of the reduction in after-tax income deprivation.

  4. Advanced vehicles: Costs, energy use, and macroeconomic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guihua

    Advanced vehicles and alternative fuels could play an important role in reducing oil use and changing the economy structure. We developed the Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model to investigate a vehicle portfolio scenario in California during 2010-2030. Then we employed a computable general equilibrium model to estimate macroeconomic impacts of the advanced vehicle scenario on the economy of California. Results indicate that, due to slow fleet turnover, conventional vehicles are expected to continue to dominate the on-road fleet and gasoline is the major transportation fuel over the next two decades. However, alternative fuels could play an increasingly important role in gasoline displacement. Advanced vehicle costs are expected to decrease dramatically with production volume and technological progress; e.g., incremental costs for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen could break even with gasoline savings in 2028. Overall, the vehicle portfolio scenario is estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California's economy, because advanced vehicles are very costly and, therefore, the resulting gasoline savings generally cannot offset the high incremental expenditure on vehicles and alternative fuels. Sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in gasoline price or a drop in alternative fuel prices could offset a portion of the negative impact.

  5. MACROECONOMIC STABILITY OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

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    Arnold WEISZENBACHER

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the recent financial crisis, the macroeconomic stability of most countries has been cast to shadow. The damage to the economy caused by high inflation, volatile exchange rates, increasing amount of debts and the unstable financial markets has heavily left its toll on the global market and has led to massive unemployment and increasing poverty. This paper aims to follow the eight new Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union in 2004, as well as Romania and Bulgaria, who followed suit in 2007, in what concerns their economical performance, following adhesion to the EU while also comparing the periods before and after the economical crisis. They were chosen as a topic of research for the severity with which the crisis affected them and the high degree of reform implementation in the aftermath. It also plans to highlight the effect of the new reforms and the growth potential when compared to the rest of the European Union. The price inflation, real GDP growth, the levels of (unemployment, fiscal policy and stability of exchange rates will provide a clear image of how this cluster of developing countries fare nowadays against the rest of the EU countries.

  6. Open Economy, Institutional Quality, and Environmental Performance: A Macroeconomic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaryllis Mavragani

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available As the subject of how economic development affects the quality of the natural environment has gained great momentum, this paper focuses on examining the extent to which the openness of a market economy and the quality of the institution affect environmental performance. The majority of the current studies focus on the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the level of economic growth. This paper addresses this question by relating environmental (“Environmental Performance Index” to macroeconomic (Gross Domestic Product per capita, “Open Markets Index” and governance indicators (“Worldwide Governance Indicators”. The sample consists of 75 countries, including all G20 and EU members, comprising “more than 90% of global trade and investment”. Findings show that the Environmental Performance Index is positively correlated to each of the (institutional indicators, so as to confirm that the selected indices are consistent with previous studies, suggesting that environmental performance increases in line with economic development and that good governance increases a country’s levels of environmental protection. By applying factor analysis, an empirical model of the Environmental Performance Index is estimated, suggesting that there is a significant positive correlation between a country’s economic growth, the openness of an economy, high levels of effective governance, and its environmental performance.

  7. MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF SHADOW BANKING – EVIDENCE FROM EU COUNTRIES

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    TEODORA CRISTINA BARBU

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Shadow banking is a topical, debated issue on the agenda of national and European macro-prudential regulatory and supervisory authorities. It is generally accepted that shadow banks and the traditional banking system have some core functions in common, such as credit and maturity transformation, and the exposure to similar risks. However, the tight banking regulations and the decreasing trend recorded by interest rates in the post-crisis period create prospects for shadow banking sector growth. Against this background, the present paper aims at investigating the particular impact that shadow banking activity exerts on macroeconomic fundamentals. The analysis covers 15 European Union countries, including Romania, during the period 2008 – 2015, using quarterly data. Shadow banking system is used as a proxy by monetary funds, due to breaks in the series or unbalanced number of observations across selected countries. By employing panel regression, it was found that the shadow banking total assets’ variation is negatively influenced by the GDP growth, short term interest rates, M2/GDP ratio and the ratio of investment funds’ assets in GDP, and positively determined by stock index dynamics and long term interest rates. The findings sustain the literature’s point of view.

  8. Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carey W. King

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available I use energy cost share to characterize the role of energy in the economy. Specifically, I use an estimate of monetary expenditures for primary energy on an annualized basis for forty-four countries from 1978 to 2010 for natural gas, coal, petroleum, and electricity. I show that global energy cost share is significantly correlated to a one-year lag in the change in gross domestic product as well as measures of total factor productivity. Given the historical reduction in the relative cost of energy (including food and fodder for animate power since the start of the Industrial Revolution, combined with a global energy cost share estimate, I conclude that the turn of the 21st Century represents the time period with the cheapest energy in the history of human civilization (to date. This potential historical nadir for energy expenditures around 2000 has important ramifications for strategies to solve future social, economic, and environmental problems such as reducing annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs. Rapidly decreasing annual GHG emissions while internalizing their costs into the economy might feedback to increase energy expenditures to such a degree as to prevent economic growth during that transition.

  9. [The report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health: its relevance to the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-09-01

    The Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) was established by the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) to evaluate the role of health in economic development. On 20 December 2001 the CMH submitted its report to the WHO Director-General. Entitled Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development, the CMH report affirms that in order to reduce poverty; and achieve economic development, it is essential to improve the health of the poor; to accomplish this, it is necessary to expand the access that the poor have to essential health services. The Commission believes that more financial resources are needed, that the health expenditures of less-developed and low-income countries are insufficient for the challenges that these countries face, and that high-income countries must increase their financial assistance in order to help solve the main health problems of less-developed and low-income countries. This piece summarizes a report that was prepared by the Program on Public Policy and Health of the Division of Health and Human Development of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). The PAHO document analyzes the importance of the CMH report for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, focusing on some of the central arguments put forth in the CMH report as they relate to achieving better health conditions in the Americas. These arguments have been organized around three major themes in the CMH report: a) the relationships between health and economic growth, b) the principal health problems that affect the poor in low-income and low-middle-income#10; countries, and c) the gap between the funding needed to address the principal problems that affect these countries and the actual spending levels. #10;

  10. 宏观经济政策对股票市场的影响研究%Study on the Influence of Macroeconomic Policy on Stock Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴轩

    2013-01-01

      理论上,宏观经济通过传导机制对股票市场产生影响,从而产生联动效应。文章主要通过理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法,建立了VEC模型,就我国宏观经济政策对股票市场的走势的影响进行深入分析。结果表明,宏观经济政策对股票市场有一定的影响,但政策变量产生影响的显著程度与股票市场对政策变量的敏感度,时滞现象,观测时间长短以及市场自身波动性有关。%In theory, macroeconomic has an impact on the stock market through transmission mechanism, resulting in the connected effect. The article mainly used the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to set up the VEC model. The influence of macroeconomic policies in China on the trend of the stock market has been analyzed deeply. The results show that macroeconomic policies have a certain impact on the stock market. However, the notable degree of the influence of policy variables is related to the sensitiveness of the stock market to policy variables, lag phenomenon, the length of the observation time and market volatility.

  11. Macroeconomic Benefits of Low-Cost Reusable Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Eric J.; Greenberg, Joel

    1998-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated its Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Technology Program to provide information on the technical and commercial feasibility of single-stage to orbit (SSTO), fully-reusable launchers. Because RLVs would not depend on expendable hardware to achieve orbit, they could take better advantage of economies of scale than expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) that discard costly hardware on ascent. The X-33 experimental vehicle, a sub-orbital, 60%-scale prototype of Lockheed Martin's VentureStar SSTO RLV concept, is being built by Skunk Works for a 1999 first flight. If RLVs achieve prices to low-earth orbit of less than $1000 US per pound, they could hold promise for eliciting an elastic response from the launch services market. As opposed to the capture of existing market, this elastic market would represent new space-based industry businesses. These new opportunities would be created from the next tier of business concepts, such as space manufacturing and satellite servicing, that cannot earn a profit at today's launch prices but could when enabled by lower launch costs. New business creation contributes benefits to the US Government (USG) and the US economy through increases in tax revenues and employment. Assumptions about the costs and revenues of these new ventures, based on existing space-based and aeronautics sector businesses, can be used to estimate the macroeconomic benefits provided by new businesses. This paper examines these benefits and the flight prices and rates that may be required to enable these new space industries.

  12. ROMANIA'S MACROECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENTS FOR JOINING THE UNIQUE EUROPEAN CURENCY

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    SILVIA POPESCU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian government has announced plans to join the eurozone by 2015. Currently, the leu is not yet part of ERM II but plans to join in 2010-2012. The economic advantages of the monetary union grow with expansion of the Euro zone. There is also a high level of skepticism; the main fear about the Euro is the inflation –that is considerable promoted by the Euro currency’s exchange rate in comparison with 2002; another restraint is due to member states inability to establish their own interest rates. The IMF arose the option of joining the Euro zone criteria relaxing. A one-sided Euro’s joining was suggested by International Monetary Fund on March-April 2009, in a confidential report mentioned by The Financial Times as the emergent states in Central and Eastern Europe to be able to pass to the unique currency, but not being represented in the Central European Bank Board. By its side, CEB considers that emergent states of the European Union must not pass to the unique currency unilaterally, because such a fact could under-mine the trust in Euro currency worldwide. This option would hardly deepen the macroeconomic controversies inside the Euro zone and would contradict the previous conditions already imposed. An acceptable solution could be the fastening of emergent countries joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2, after they are aware of risks arisen by such a step. The European Commission endorses in the Convergence Report on 2010 that Romania doesn’t meet any criteria needed by passing to the unique European currency, respectively: prices stability; budget position of the government; stability of exchange rate; interest convergence on long run and there are also law impediments. Our paper discusses arguments for a faster passing to the Euro currency versus arguments for a late joining the Euro currency in Romania.

  13. Long-term process of reforming the economy of Republic of Serbia in order to achieve macroeconomic stabilization: From transient changes to the activist approach

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    Gavrilović Milica

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In today's economy, which is burdened by problems such as non-productive economy, high unemployment rates, constant inflationary pressures, great attention is paid to the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in order to achieve macroeconomic stability. There is no universal model of economic policy even in countries around the world, nor in the Serbian economy, and policy makers are looking for the optimal design of monetary and fiscal strategies and their synchronization with other non-negligible specific economic policy objectives (in terms of balance of payments, objectives related to foreign currency course, the distribution of income, implemented stage of market reforms of the nineties, and then phase of reforms in the first decade of the 21st century. How good coordination of monetary and fiscal measures can be no qualitative basis, or as it is not possible to reconstruct and degrade previous economic structure, and that there is no definition of the new strategy, and continued the process of reforming and in the period from the time of deepening global financial crisis in 2008 . The Republic of Serbia, a country whose economy in the long process of reforming, seeks better use of comparative advantages, encouraging production and employment, adequate planning and allocation of available resources of its own and charge, absorption of new technologies, intensifying exports, encouraging investment, and with a constant potential danger which increase the vulnerability of small economies. The solid foundations of macroeconomic stability and discipline must be in production, proper allocation of resources, which will run the economy, and then increase the employment rate, and therefore national income. of crucial importance of good projections of macroeconomic aggregates, because of them depend on public revenue and public expenditure.

  14. Önde Gelen Iktisat Doktora Programlarında Temel Makro Iktisat Eğitimi - Graduate Macroeconomics Education in Leading PH.D Programs in Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim; Kara, Gazi Ishak; Suner, Amac

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the current state of research in macroeconomics in the light of first year macroeconomics courses offered in the 16 leading Ph.D programs. Our investigation confirms that methodological and ideological differences of 1970’s and 80’s are about to disappear as methodological gap between macroeconomics and microeconomics is narrowing. Moreover, while use of mathematics in macroeconomics is increasing, applied mathematics gains more importance than theoretical mathematics. Thi...

  15. How the macroeconomic context impacts on attitudes to immigration: Evidence from within-country variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruist, Joakim

    2016-11-01

    This study investigates the effects of the macroeconomic context on attitudes to immigration. Earlier studies do in some cases not provide significant empirical support for the existence of important such effects. In this article it is argued that this lack of consistent evidence is mainly due to the cross-national setup of these studies being vulnerable to estimation bias caused by country-specific factors. The present study instead analyzes attitude variation within countries over time. The results provide firm empirical support in favor of macroeconomic variation importantly affecting attitudes to immigration. As an illustration, the estimates indicate that the number of individuals in the average European country in 2012 who were against all immigration from poorer countries outside Europe was 40% higher than it would have been if macroeconomic conditions in that year had been as good as they were in 2006. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Impact of Macro-economic Factors on Deposit Formation by Ukrainian Population

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    Shevaldina Valentyna H.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is detection of interconnections between the common economic processes and formation of bank deposits by population. The article builds a correlation and regression model of complex assessment of interconnection between macro-economic factors, savings behaviour of population and level of deposits of population in banks for two hour horizons: short-term, which is characterised with deployment of crisis phenomena both in global economy and in Ukrainian economy and the medium-term one. The article characterises the most significant common macro-economic factors. In the result of the study the article establishes that Ukrainian population is oriented at short-term horizon when forming savings due to the uncertainty in future. In the medium-term prospective, savings of the population are formed basically under influence of macro-economic factors, while formation of deposits by Ukrainian population is mostly influenced by socio-psychological factors.

  17. Exit, voice, and loyalty in the Italian public health service: macroeconomic and corporate implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ippolito, Adelaide; Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon.

  18. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty in the Italian Public Health Service: Macroeconomic and Corporate Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon. PMID:24348148

  19. Application of the IS-PC-MR model in the modern macroeconomics

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    Kalinić Ljubina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In contemporary economic literature, very significant position takes 'new' neoclassical synthesis, which refers to the consensus about the role of monetary policy in the modern economy, the role of expectations, the importance of money and looking 'forward' by economic agents. For more than a half of century, IS-LM model was the main instrument of macroeconomic analysis. However, modern conditions have led to the situation where traditional IS-LM analysis is not applicable any more. Hence, a new, IS-PC-MR model is developed, and the research objective of the paper is to analyze the IS-PC-MR model as the basic tool of modern macroeconomics, which is able to explain the contemporary macroeconomic issues, with a focus primarily on the role of monetary policy during the shocks in the economy and inflation targeting.

  20. Introducing Valuation Effects-Based External Balance Analysis into the Undergraduate Macroeconomics Curricula: A Simple Framework with Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brust, Peter; Jayakumar, Vivekanand

    2012-01-01

    Global imbalances and the sustainability of large U.S. current account deficits have dominated international macroeconomics of late. Pedagogically, a clear disconnect exists between graduate-level open-economy macroeconomics that emphasizes intertemporal current account models and net foreign asset adjustment featuring valuation effects, and,…

  1. Introducing Valuation Effects-Based External Balance Analysis into the Undergraduate Macroeconomics Curricula: A Simple Framework with Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brust, Peter; Jayakumar, Vivekanand

    2012-01-01

    Global imbalances and the sustainability of large U.S. current account deficits have dominated international macroeconomics of late. Pedagogically, a clear disconnect exists between graduate-level open-economy macroeconomics that emphasizes intertemporal current account models and net foreign asset adjustment featuring valuation effects, and,…

  2. Reflections on modern macroeconomics: Can we travel along a safer road?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaffeo, E.; Catalano, M.; Clementi, F.; Delli Gatti, D.; Gallegati, M.; Russo, A.

    2007-08-01

    In this paper we sketch some reflections on the pitfalls and inconsistencies of the research program-currently dominant among the profession-aimed at providing microfoundations to macroeconomics along a Walrasian perspective. We argue that such a methodological approach constitutes an unsatisfactory answer to a well-posed research question, and that alternative promising routes have been long mapped out but only recently explored. In particular, we discuss a recent agent-based, truly non-Walrasian macroeconomic model, and we use it to envisage new challenges for future research.

  3. Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Deger Alper; Adem Anbar

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of the banks profitability in Turkey over the time period from 2002 to 2010. The bank profitability is measured by return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) as a function of bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants. Using a balanced panel data set, the results show that asset size and non-interest income have a positive and significant effect on bank profitability. However, size of credit portfoli...

  4. Reflections on Modern Macroeconomics: Can We Travel Along a Safer Road?

    CERN Document Server

    Gaffeo, E; Clementi, F; Gatti, D D; Gallegati, M; Russo, A

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we sketch some reflections on the pitfalls and inconsistencies of the research program - currently dominant among the profession - aimed at providing microfoundations to macroeconomics along a Walrasian perspective. We argue that such a methodological approach constitutes an unsatisfactory answer to a well-posed research question, and that alternative promising routes have been long mapped out but only recently explored. In particular, we discuss a recent agent-based, truly non-Walrasian macroeconomic model, and we use it to envisage new challenges for future research.

  5. A Comparison of Different Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasting Models: Evidence from Armenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poghosyan Karen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the forecasting performance of four competing models for short-term macroeconomic forecasting: the traditional VAR, small scale Bayesian VAR, Factor Augmented VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models. Using Armenian quarterly actual macroeconomic time series from 1996Q1 – 2014Q4, we estimate parameters of four competing models. Based on the out-of-sample recursive forecast evaluations and using root mean squared error (RMSE criterion we conclude that small scale Bayesian VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models are more suitable for short-term forecasting than traditional unrestricted VAR model.

  6. Taxing CO2 and subsidising biomass: Analysed in a macroeconomic and sectoral model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    This paper analyses the combination of taxes and subsidies as an instrument to enable a reduction in CO2 emission. The objective of the study is to compare recycling of a CO2 tax revenue as a subsidy for biomass use as opposed to traditional recycling such as reduced income or corporate taxation....... A model of Denmark's energy supply sector is used to analyse the e€ect of a CO2 tax combined with using the tax revenue for biomass subsidies. The energy supply model is linked to a macroeconomic model such that the macroeconomic consequences of tax policies can be analysed along with the consequences...

  7. 20th Century variability of Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation: Planetary wave influences on world ocean surface phosphate utilization and synchrony of small pelagic fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamykowski, Daniel

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), part of the global Thermohaline Circulation (THC), is variable. In the present analysis, an Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index, related to the existing Atlantic Dipole Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (ADSA) index, is used to represent 20th century changes in AMOC strength that are applied to global ecosystem variability. ADPU index cycles set the timing for the calculation of six 2° latitude-longitude resolution world ocean maps depicting higher surface phosphate utilization (SPU) in some regions when AMOC is weaker and in other regions when AMOC is stronger. The average of these six maps yields a summary map with a pattern of alternating latitudinal SPU regions differentiated by AMOC strength that exhibits relationships with ocean bathymetry and wind-driven currents through a consideration of the THC deep and shallow limbs. The latitudinal pattern of SPU regions exhibits conceptual associations with sardine (S) and anchovy (A) population ranges off Japan (J), California (C), Peru (P) and South Africa (B). These sardine and anchovy populations have exhibited apparently synchronous fluctuations on decadal scales through at least part of the 20th century that is summarized in a Regime Indicator Series (RIS=(JS+CS+PS+BA)-(JA+CA+PA+BS)) index. In the present analysis based on Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) catch data, a revised Regime Indicator Series index formulation (RIS3=(JS+CA+PS+BA)-(JA+CS+PA+BS)), in which CS and CA catches reverse positions, is defined. AMOC variability represented in ADPU is significantly correlated with the RIS3 index (no lag but a significant range of 14 years) and four of eight small pelagic fisheries (JS, PS, BA, and JA). The post-1950 RIS3 index is significantly correlated with seven of eight small pelagic fisheries but not CS. When the regional small pelagic fisheries are considered as normalized species differences (S-A), ADPU has significant positive

  8. Macroeconomía I. Guía de trabajos prácticos Nº1: introducción a la macroeconomía

    OpenAIRE

    Gentile, Natacha

    2011-01-01

    Esta guía forma parte de un conjunto de guías de trabajos prácticos, elaboradas para la cátedra de Macroeconomía I de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, durante los años que me tocó desempeñarme como Jefe de Trabajos Prácticos (años 2007-2011).

  9. Spatial variability in surface-water pCO2 and gas exchange in the world's largest semi-enclosed estuarine system: St. Lawrence Estuary (Canada)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinauer, Ashley; Mucci, Alfonso

    2017-07-01

    The incomplete spatial coverage of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) measurements across estuary types represents a significant knowledge gap in current regional- and global-scale estimates of estuarine CO2 emissions. Given the limited research on CO2 dynamics in large estuaries and bay systems, as well as the sources of error in the calculation of pCO2 (carbonic acid dissociation constants, organic alkalinity), estimates of air-sea CO2 fluxes in estuaries are subject to large uncertainties. The Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence (EGSL) at the lower limit of the subarctic region in eastern Canada is the world's largest estuarine system, and is characterized by an exceptional richness in environmental diversity. It is among the world's most intensively studied estuaries, yet there are no published data on its surface-water pCO2 distribution. To fill this data gap, a comprehensive dataset was compiled from direct and indirect measurements of carbonate system parameters in the surface waters of the EGSL during the spring or summer of 2003-2016. The calculated surface-water pCO2 ranged from 435 to 765 µatm in the shallow partially mixed upper estuary, 139-578 µatm in the deep stratified lower estuary, and 207-478 µatm along the Laurentian Channel in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Overall, at the time of sampling, the St. Lawrence Estuary served as a very weak source of CO2 to the atmosphere, with an area-averaged CO2 degassing flux of 0.98 to 2.02 mmol C m-2 d-1 (0.36 to 0.74 mol C m-2 yr-1). A preliminary analysis revealed that respiration (upper estuary), photosynthesis (lower estuary), and temperature (Gulf of St. Lawrence) controlled the spatial variability in surface-water pCO2. Whereas we used the dissociation constants of Cai and Wang (1998) to calculate estuarine pCO2, formulations recommended for best practices in open ocean environments may underestimate pCO2 at low salinities, while those of Millero (2010) may result in overestimates.

  10. Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries: How Much Is Enough?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Peter Montiel; Luis Servén

    2006-01-01

    .... It reviews the progress achieved through fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies across the developing world and the effectiveness of the changing policy framework in promoting stability and growth...

  11. Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market: The Case of the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu HSING

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Applying the GARCH model, this paper finds that the Czech stock market index is positively associated with real GDP and the German and US stock market indexes, is negatively influenced by the ratio of government borrowing to GDP, the domestic real interest rate, the CZK/USD exchange rate, the expected inflation rate and the euro area government bond yield, and exhibits a quadratic relationship with the ratio of M2 to GDP. It suggests that the Czech stock market index and the M2/GDP ratio have a positive (negative relationship if the M2/GDP ratio is less (greater than the critical value of 60.0%. Hence, to promote a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to pursue or maintain economic growth, fiscal discipline, currency appreciation, a relatively low interest rate and expected inflation rate, and the M2/GDP ratio which is below the critical value of 60.0%.

  12. 宏观变量与微观气象%Macroeconomics variable and microeconomics mateorological phenomena

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    盛洪

    2001-01-01

    @@ 无论好坏,美国经济和日本经济的前景都值得我们重视 在改革开放20年后,我国经济已经和全球经济密不可分.中国社会科学院经济所的一项研究指出,美国的经济增长率每降低1个百分点,中国的出口额增长率就会降低7个百分点.今年以来发生的事情似乎证实了这一点.1至6月我国出口额增长率为8.8%,比去年同期的增长率降低了29.5个百分点.而在美国,今年一季度的经济增长率为1.3%,比去年同期5.3%的增长率低了4个百分点.

  13. Forecasting macroeconomic variables using neural network models and three automated model selection techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2016-01-01

    When forecasting with neural network models one faces several problems, all of which influence the accuracy of the forecasts. First, neural networks are often hard to estimate due to their highly nonlinear structure. To alleviate the problem, White (2006) presented a solution (Quick......Net) that converts the specification and nonlinear estimation problem into a linear model selection and estimation problem. We shall compare its performance to that of two other procedures building on the linearization idea: the Marginal Bridge Estimator and Autometrics. Second, one must decide whether forecasting...

  14. Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we consider the forecasting performance of a well-defined class of flexible models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A major aim of our study is to find out whether they, due to their flexibility, are as useful tools in economic forecasting as some...... previous studies have indicated. When forecasting with neural network models one faces several problems, all of which influence the accuracy of the forecasts. First, neural networks are often hard to estimate due to their highly nonlinear structure. In fact, their parameters are not even globally...... on the linearisation idea: the Marginal Bridge Estimator and Autometrics. Second, one must decide whether forecasting should be carried out recursively or directly. Comparisons of these two methodss exist for linear models and here these comparisons are extended to neural networks. Finally, a nonlinear model...

  15. The determinants of liability dollarizaton and the effects of dollarization on macroeconomics variables in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Lower-cost borrowing of companies in foreign currency has increased in countries which suffer from persistent current account deficit; since they conduct higher real interest rate policy in order to attract international funding. Moreover the usage of the strong economy currencies with high convertibility in international transactions during the global crises has increased. This process called as “liability dollarization” caused vulnerability, especially in emerging countries having domestic ...

  16. The determinants of liability dollarizaton and the effects of dollarization on macroeconomics variables in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Taşseven, Özlem; Çınar, Serkan

    2015-01-01

    Lower-cost borrowing of companies in foreign currency has increased in countries which suffer from persistent current account deficit; since they conduct higher real interest rate policy in order to attract international funding. Moreover the usage of the strong economy currencies with high convertibility in international transactions during the global crises has increased. This process called as “liability dollarization” caused vulnerability, especially in emerging countries having domestic ...

  17. How do Macroeconomic and Political Variables Affect the Flexibility of Exchange Rate Regime?

    OpenAIRE

    Mehmet Guclu

    2009-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime has become one of the most important issues once more in many economies after the financial crises in recent years. In the wake of the financial crises, many countries, especially emerging market economies, opted for floating exchange rate regimes by forsaking the pegged regimes. Consequently, an old debate on the choice and determinants of exchange rate regimes has been triggered. Economists have started to debate what appropriate exchange rate regime for a...

  18. Non-Linear Dynamics of Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Sophia Kassapi

    2015-01-01

    This paper is part of an ongoing doctoral dissertation. It examines the long run relationship between government spending on education, GDP growth and educational enrollments in all levels, for Greece in the years 1960-2012, leveling up to capture more complex dependent dynamics in time series. OECD Indicator A11 shows that, life satisfaction, civic engagement and health. are at the same level for adults with tertiary education and adults with upper secondary education for Greece. Having cond...

  19. Non-Linear Dynamics of Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophia Kassapi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is part of an ongoing doctoral dissertation. It examines the long run relationship between government spending on education, GDP growth and educational enrollments in all levels, for Greece in the years 1960-2012, leveling up to capture more complex dependent dynamics in time series. OECD Indicator A11 shows that, life satisfaction, civic engagement and health. are at the same level for adults with tertiary education and adults with upper secondary education for Greece. Having conducted Linear Granger tests, this study goes beyond, following the methodology of both non-parametric testing for asymptotic Granger causality in C, and non-parametric bootstrapped bidirectional Granger causality, an MS Dos application in C. We apply a new nonparametric test for Granger non-causality by Diks and Panchenko (2005, 2006 as well as the conventional linear Granger test on the time series.   The secondary data used in this present study, have been processed through MATLAB interpolation function. There is a strong symmetric nonlinear causal relationship detected between government spending on education and enrollments in higher education, and vice versa, .An even stronger, both symmetric and asymmetric nonlinear relationship between higher education enrollments and Gdp growth is validated confirming a spectacular case of “adverse causality”. Government spending in education is causally related with Gdp growth in a symmetric as much as an asymmetric nonlinear relationship. Also, lagged values of secondary enrollments are a major predictor of Gdp growth. Keywords: Economic growth, Greek economy, Granger Causality, Non-linearity.

  20. Macroeconomic impacts of Universal Health Coverage : Synthetic control evidence from Thailand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Rieger (Matthias); N. Wagner (Natascha); A.S. Bedi (Arjun Singh)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractWe study the impact of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) on various macroeconomic outcomes in Thailand using synthetic control methods. Thailand is compared to a weighted average of control countries in terms of aggregate health and economic performance over the period 1995 to 2012. Our re

  1. A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the…

  2. The Response of US College Enrollment to Unexpected Changes in Macroeconomic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Kris M.; Beckert, Kim A.; Ewing, Bradley T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper estimates the extent and magnitude of US college and university enrollment responses to unanticipated changes in macroeconomic activity. In particular, we consider the relationship between enrollment, economic growth, and inflation. A time series analysis known as a vector autoregression is estimated and impulse response functions are…

  3. Is there a Core of Macroeconomics that Euro Area Forecasters Believe In?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch, Christian; Ruelke, Jan

    2012-01-01

    The quantity theory of money, Okun’s law, and the Phillips curve are cornerstones of macroeconomic theory. But are they also of practical relevance? Using survey data for the euro area, we found that professional economists’ forecasts are consistent with a version of the quantity theory in which...

  4. Studying Absenteeism in Principles of Macroeconomics: Do Attendance Policies Make a Difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Self, Sharmistha

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of this article is to see if and how attendance policy influences class attendance in undergraduate-level principles of macroeconomics classes. The second objective, which is related to the first, is to examine whether the nature of the attendance policy matters in terms of its impact on class attendance behavior. The results…

  5. Enhancing Student Learning and Critical Thinking through Academic Controversy in Post Secondary Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santicola, Craig F.

    2011-01-01

    There is a lack of student learning and critical thinking skills in post-secondary macroeconomics courses. The literature indicates that the lack of learning outcomes can be attributed to the reliance on traditional lecture and the failure to adopt innovative instructional techniques. The purpose of this study was to investigate the student…

  6. Including the monetary part in macro accounting: A ‘modern’ approach to the macroeconomic accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur TUTULMAZ

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Economic output is placed at the heart of the macroeconomics. To calculate the output one needs to achieve simplifying a high level complexity of economic relationships to form a system. On the flip side, the model should be enough elaborated to be able to reflect the important relationships. In this manner, the classical macroeconomic identity as Keynes suggested is simple enough to understand the main elements but it does not show the financial parts of transactions. Not having the monetary part of the economy it lacks the coherence. With the financial and economic crises getting more frequent, more endeavour to build a more inclusive and coherent macroeconomic system has been observed. However, there are large variety in different options of simplifying and simulating complex relationships among the real and monetary part of the modern economies.  Our paper tries to set an analysis comparing some of the recent prominent ideas in building balance sheet and transaction flow matrix in regard to macroeconomic accounting system. We can conclude the new achievement of including the monetary transactions in the frame causes a compromise from the simplicity for a coherent and more complete picture of macro economy.

  7. Enhancing Student Learning and Critical Thinking through Academic Controversy in Post Secondary Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santicola, Craig F.

    2011-01-01

    There is a lack of student learning and critical thinking skills in post-secondary macroeconomics courses. The literature indicates that the lack of learning outcomes can be attributed to the reliance on traditional lecture and the failure to adopt innovative instructional techniques. The purpose of this study was to investigate the student…

  8. The methodology of modern macroeconomics and the descriptive approach to discounting: a thougt experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Vermeylen

    2013-01-01

    Critics of modern macroeconomics often raise concerns about unwarranted welfare conclusions and data mining. This paper illustrates these concerns with a thought experiment, based on the debate in environmental economics about the appropriate discount rate in climate change analyses: I set up an eco

  9. Some Evidence on Policy Makers’ Motives, Macroeconomic preferences and Output-Inflation Trade-offs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O.H. Swank (Otto)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents the results of an empirical study of the relationship between macroeconomic performance and policy makers' preferences for real output growth and inflation based on quarterly data from 16 countries. The empirical results indicate that a lower priority to inflation and

  10. Methodologies for environmental, micro- and macro-economic evaluation of bioenergy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, R. van den; Wijk, A. van

    2006-01-01

    An overview is given of methodologies used for evaluation of bioenergy systems on envoronmental, micro- and macro-economic spects. To evaluate micro-economic impacts net present value and annualised cost calculation are used. For environmental impacts, methods used are: qualitative studies, energy a

  11. Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data : The ragged-edge problem and revisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, 27695; Jacobs, J.P.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Real-time macroeconomic data are typically incomplete for today and the immediate past ('ragged edge') and subject to revision. To enable more timely forecasts the recent missing data have to be imputed. The paper presents a state-space model that can deal with publication lags and data revisions.

  12. A Simple Treatment of the Liquidity Trap for Intermediate Macroeconomics Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

    2014-01-01

    Several leading undergraduate intermediate macroeconomics textbooks now include a simple reduced-form New Keynesian model of short-run dynamics (alongside the IS-LM model). Unfortunately, there is no accompanying description of how the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates affects the model. In this article, the authors show how the…

  13. A Simple Treatment of the Liquidity Trap for Intermediate Macroeconomics Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

    2014-01-01

    Several leading undergraduate intermediate macroeconomics textbooks now include a simple reduced-form New Keynesian model of short-run dynamics (alongside the IS-LM model). Unfortunately, there is no accompanying description of how the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates affects the model. In this article, the authors show how the…

  14. Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Murshed (Syed)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when debt serv

  15. Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Murshed (Syed)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when

  16. Government control of markets of financial services of Ukraine in conditions of macroeconomic instability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ігор Юрійович Мельников

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An essence of financial services market of Ukraine is considered in the article. The mechanism and features of state regulation of financial services market in the context of macroeconomic instability are determined, the fundamentals of the theory of regulation of market economy and segments of the financial market of Ukraine are determined

  17. Macroeconomic Analysis and Graphical Interpretation of Azerbaijan Economy in 1991-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khatai ALIYEV

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze macroeconomic performance and discuss transition indicators in Azerbaijan economy for 1991-2012. After regaining independence in 1991, Azerbaijan implemented economic transition process toward market economy. In the first years of independence, serious economic recession was observed. However, after 1995, the restructuring of the economy started. In this sense, signing the “Contract of the Century” was a turning point toward oil based high speed economic growth or oil boom period. Thus, by opening “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan” pipeline in 2005, Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic indicators experienced considerable growth for the following years. On the other hand, Azerbaijan officially declared the end of economic transition process in its economy in 2009. In this paper, the authors discuss the political-economic and economic process in the whole period as well as analyze the macroeconomic performance with and without oil & gas contribution. In addition, the authors question what would happen if economic transition period ended in Azerbaijan’s economy. It is concluded that oil & gas production has a serious impact over macroeconomic indicators and transition indicators, and for Azerbaijan it implies only a partly end of economic transition, though not completely.

  18. Macroeconomic effects of CO2 emission limits : A computable general equilibrium analysis for China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, ZX

    1998-01-01

    The study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of limiting China's CO2 emissions by using a time-recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. The baseline scenario for the Chinese economy over the period to 2010 is first developed under a set of assumptions abou

  19. Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Sensier (Marianne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractWe test for a change in the volatility of 215 US macroeconomic time series over the period 1960-1996. We find that about 90\\\\% of these series have experienced a break in volatility during this period. This result is robust to controlling for instability in the mean and business cycle

  20. Government control of markets of financial services of Ukraine in conditions of macroeconomic instability

    OpenAIRE

    Ігор Юрійович Мельников

    2015-01-01

    An essence of financial services market of Ukraine is considered in the article. The mechanism and features of state regulation of financial services market in the context of macroeconomic instability are determined, the fundamentals of the theory of regulation of market economy and segments of the financial market of Ukraine are determined

  1. The Response of US College Enrollment to Unexpected Changes in Macroeconomic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Kris M.; Beckert, Kim A.; Ewing, Bradley T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper estimates the extent and magnitude of US college and university enrollment responses to unanticipated changes in macroeconomic activity. In particular, we consider the relationship between enrollment, economic growth, and inflation. A time series analysis known as a vector autoregression is estimated and impulse response functions are…

  2. Studying Absenteeism in Principles of Macroeconomics: Do Attendance Policies Make a Difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Self, Sharmistha

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of this article is to see if and how attendance policy influences class attendance in undergraduate-level principles of macroeconomics classes. The second objective, which is related to the first, is to examine whether the nature of the attendance policy matters in terms of its impact on class attendance behavior. The results…

  3. Problem-Based Learning and High School Macroeconomics: A Comparative Study of Instructional Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Nan L.; Mergendoller, John R.; Bellisimo, Yolanda

    2005-01-01

    The authors examined the potential differences between problem-based learning (PBL) and traditional instructional approaches in building knowledge of macroeconomic concepts and principles in high school students. Using data from 252 economics students at 11 high schools and controlling for individual characteristics, most notably verbal ability,…

  4. How Do Transfer Students Perform in Economics? Evidence from Intermediate Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asarta, Carlos J.; Fuess, Scott M., Jr.; Perumal, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    For students taking intermediate-level economics, does it matter where they studied principles of economics? Does transferring college credit influence subsequent academic performance in economics? With a sample covering 1999-2008, the authors analyze in this article a group of nearly 1,000 students taking intermediate macroeconomics at a…

  5. Natural disasters impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Lazzaroni (Sara); P.A.G. van Bergeijk (Peter)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe systematize recent macroeconomic empirical literature on the direct and indirect impact of natural disasters providing a meta-analysis of 20 studies published during 2002-2013. We show that the disagreement between these studies is caused by the empirical design, the estimation techni

  6. Is there a Core of Macroeconomics that Euro Area Forecasters Believe In?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch, Christian; Ruelke, Jan

    2012-01-01

    The quantity theory of money, Okun’s law, and the Phillips curve are cornerstones of macroeconomic theory. But are they also of practical relevance? Using survey data for the euro area, we found that professional economists’ forecasts are consistent with a version of the quantity theory in which ...

  7. Embedding Care and Unpaid Work in Macroeconomic Modeling: A Structuralist Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Braunstein (Elissa); I.P. van Staveren (Irene); D. Tavani (Daniele)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis study embeds paid and unpaid care work in a structuralist macroeconomic model. Care work is formally modeled as a gendered input into the market production process via its impact on the current and future labor force, with altruistic motivations determining both how much support peo

  8. Human capital formation and macroeconomic performance in an ageing small open economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijdra, Ben J.; Romp, Ward E.

    We study the effects of stylized demographic and fiscal shocks on the macroeconomic performance of an industrialized small open economy. We construct an overlapping-generations model which incorporates a realistic description of the mortality process. Agents engage in educational activities at the

  9. Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Murshed (Syed)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when debt serv

  10. Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Murshed (Syed)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when

  11. El mundo de la macroeconomía: perspectiva general y concepciones originarias

    OpenAIRE

    Febrero Devesa, Ramón

    1996-01-01

    Reflexión sobre el significado de la macroeconomía, sobre sus proposiciones básicas y sobre el origen de esta literatura, destacando los rasgos que han caracterizado la evolución del pensamiento económico a través del "modelo clásico" de Keynes-Hicks-Modigliani.

  12. How Do Transfer Students Perform in Economics? Evidence from Intermediate Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asarta, Carlos J.; Fuess, Scott M., Jr.; Perumal, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    For students taking intermediate-level economics, does it matter where they studied principles of economics? Does transferring college credit influence subsequent academic performance in economics? With a sample covering 1999-2008, the authors analyze in this article a group of nearly 1,000 students taking intermediate macroeconomics at a…

  13. The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Reshid, Abdulaziz Abrar; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    investigation. The focus is on the effect of aid when allowing external and nominal factors to play a role in the macroeconomic transmission mechanism. We conclude that when monetary and external factors are properly accounted for, then aid has been pivotal to growth in both real GDP and investment....

  14. The individual life cycle and economic growth : An essay on demographic macroeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijdra, B.J.; Mierau, J.O.

    2011-01-01

    We develop a demographic macroeconomic model that captures the salient life-cycle features at the individual level and, at the same time, allows us to pinpoint the main mechanisms at play at the aggregate level. At the individual level the model features both age-dependent mortality and productivity

  15. A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the…

  16. Healthy public policy in poor countries: tackling macro-economic policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohindra, K S

    2007-06-01

    Large segments of the population in poor countries continue to suffer from a high level of unmet health needs, requiring macro-level, broad-based interventions. Healthy public policy, a key health promotion strategy, aims to put health on the agenda of policy makers across sectors and levels of government. Macro-economic policy in developing countries has thus far not adequately captured the attention of health promotion researchers. This paper argues that healthy public policy should not only be an objective in rich countries, but also in poor countries. This paper takes up this issue by reviewing the main macro-economic aid programs offered by international financial institutions as a response to economic crises and unmanageable debt burdens. Although health promotion researchers were largely absent during a key debate on structural adjustment programs and health during the 1980s and 1990s, the international macro-economic policy tool currently in play offers a new opportunity to participate in assessing these policies, ensuring new forms of macro-economic policy interventions do not simply reproduce patterns of (neoliberal) economics-dominated development policy.

  17. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  18. Our World Their World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisco, Nicole

    2011-01-01

    Build, create, make, blog, develop, organize, structure, perform. These are just a few verbs that illustrate the visual world. These words create images that allow students to respond to their environment. Visual culture studies recognize the predominance of visual forms of media, communication, and information in the postmodern world. This…

  19. A tale of trade-offs: the impact of macroeconomic factors on environmental concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, Stephen J; Emerson, Tisha L N

    2014-12-01

    We test whether macroeconomic conditions affect individuals' willingness to pay for environmental quality improvements. Improvements in environmental quality, like everything, come at a cost. Individuals facing difficult economic times may be less willing to make trade-offs required for improvements in environmental quality. Using somewhat different methodologies and shorter time frames, prior investigations have generally found a direct relationship between willingness to pay for environmental improvements and macroeconomic conditions. We use a nearly 40-year span (27 periods) of the General Social Survey (1974-2012) to estimate attitudes toward environmental spending while controlling for U.S. macroeconomic conditions and respondent-specific factors such as age, gender, marital status, number of children, residential location, educational attainment, personal financial condition, political party affiliation and ideology. Macroeconomic conditions include one-year lagged controls for the unemployment rate, the rate of economic growth (percentage change in real GDP), and an indicator for whether the U.S. economy was experiencing a recession. We find that, in general, when economic conditions are unfavorable (i.e., during a recession, or with higher unemployment, or lower GDP growth), respondents are more likely to believe the U.S. is spending too much on "improving and protecting the environment". Interacting lagged macroeconomic controls with respondent's income, we find that these views are at least partially offset by the respondent's own economic condition (i.e., their own real income). Our findings are consistent with the notion that environmental quality is a normal, or procyclical good, i.e., that environmental spending should rise when the economy is expanding and fall during economic contractions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Establishing a Set of Macroeconomic Factors Explaining Variation Over Time of Performance in Business Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available With increasing competitiveness of companies and business sectors in the domestic markets of Lithuania, economic units are frequently confronted with the lack of methods for more detailed analysis of external factors explaining the variation over time of corporate financial indicators. The analysis or forecasting of financial indicators is usually linked with the development of a stock market or undertaken to estimate the probability of bankruptcy. However, there is a lack of studies aimed at identifying links between macroeconomic factors and financial performance indicators and explaining their variation over time. To serve that purpose, the factors of the macroeconomic environment that are most significant for certain economic activities have been identified and analysed to enable explaining the variation over time patterns of corporate financial indicators. The analysis covers economic performance, i.e. financial performance indicators and their links with macroeconomic factors, in 89 business sectors of Lithuania at a three-digit level of NACE 2 ed. The findings of the research indicate that the unemployment level in the country, the volume of export and import and the GDP are the most important macroeconomic factors that can be used to forecast different profitability, financial leverage, liquidity and other financial performance indicators of individual business sectors or companies. The research has not unfolded any significant differences between business sectors therefore the above factors are considered generic macroeconomic factors enabling to explain financial performance indicators of the 89 business sectors. Hence, special attention has to be paid to identifying and analysing specific factors and assessing the causal link. When established, the set of such factors provides a framework for building of a model to forecast business sector financial indicators.

  1. E pluribus unum: macroeconomic modelling for multi-agent economies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, T.; Delli Gatti, D.

    2013-01-01

    From the macroeconomist's viewpoint, agent based modelling has an obvious drawback: it makes impossible to think in aggregate terms. The modeller, in fact, can reconstruct aggregate variables only "from the bottom up" by summing the levels of a myriad of individual variables. We propose a modelling

  2. The impact of science on economic growth and its cycles the mathematical dynamics determined by the basic macroeconomic facts

    CERN Document Server

    Aulin, Arvid

    1998-01-01

    The author shows that the enormous gap between theory and facts in modern macroeconomics can only be eliminated by nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics with the following special characteristics: First of all, only certain group-theoretical invariants generate the correct growth cycles with irregularly varying lengths, not any stochastic process as usually applied for this purpose. Furthermore, a special extended value function and generalized human capital are needed for a correct representation of scientific and technological innovation. Finally, the correct nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics are not reducible to microeconomics, for both of the above mentioned reasons.

  3. MACROECONOMIC POLICIES AND TRENDS IN RESTRUCTURING OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MUNGIU-PUPĂZAN MARIANA CLAUDIA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Challenges triggered by the current economic and financial crisis are multiple. In the short term the main challenge is finding solutions that will restore investor confidence and long-term consumatorilor.Pe, the main challenge is to adjust the principles that guide the international financial system reform, mainly relating to transparency, improvement of accounting rules on securities, insurance regulation firms and markets appropriate financial products and strengthen cooperation between the world's financial institutions including the IMF's governance structure modernization and World Bank

  4. Macroeconomics, (Adult) Education, and Poverty Eradication in Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nhamo, Senia; Nhamo, Godwell

    2006-01-01

    The Millennium Summit held in New York in September 2000 outlined the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The first of these involves the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, setting two targets: halving by 2015 the percentage of the world's populace in 1990 with income less than US-$1 a day (i.e., cutting this percentage from 27.9 to 14%);…

  5. Macroeconomics, (Adult) Education, and Poverty Eradication in Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nhamo, Senia; Nhamo, Godwell

    2006-01-01

    The Millennium Summit held in New York in September 2000 outlined the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The first of these involves the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, setting two targets: halving by 2015 the percentage of the world's populace in 1990 with income less than US-$1 a day (i.e., cutting this percentage from 27.9 to 14%);…

  6. World Literature - World Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast ...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....

  7. World Literature - World Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offering their own twenty-first-century perspectives - across generations, nationalities and disciplines -, the contributors to this anthology explore the idea of world literature for what it may add of new connections and itineraries to the study of literature and culture today. Covering a vast...... historical material these essays, by a diverse group of scholars, examine the pioneers of world literature and the roles played by translation, migration and literary institutions in the circulation and reception of both national and cosmopolitan literatures....

  8. Complexity dynamics and Hopf bifurcation analysis based on the first Lyapunov coefficient about 3D IS-LM macroeconomics system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Ren, Wenbo; Zhan, Xueli

    2017-04-01

    Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad, this paper improves the three-dimensional IS-LM model in macroeconomics, analyzes the equilibrium point of the system and stability conditions, focuses on the parameters and complex dynamic characteristics when Hopf bifurcation occurs in the three-dimensional IS-LM macroeconomics system. In order to analyze the stability of limit cycles when Hopf bifurcation occurs, this paper further introduces the first Lyapunov coefficient to judge the limit cycles, i.e. from a practical view of the business cycle. Numerical simulation results show that within the range of most of the parameters, the limit cycle of 3D IS-LM macroeconomics is stable, that is, the business cycle is stable; with the increase of the parameters, limit cycles becomes unstable, and the value range of the parameters in this situation is small. The research results of this paper have good guide significance for the analysis of macroeconomics system.

  9. 论宏观经济调控中的税收效应%Taxation effects of macroeconomic adjustment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张伦俊

    2003-01-01

    Based on equilibrium theory, this paper discussed relationships among taxation and other main macroeconomic indicators. The effects of taxation on economic growth, industrial adjustment and income distribution were analyzed.

  10. Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zulkefly Abdul Karim; Bakri Abdul Karim

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of foreign shocks upon domestic macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy, and examines the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy as a stabilization policy in Malaysia...

  11. La absorción de la macroeconomía por la microeconomía

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghislain Deleplace

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to analyze the dominant tendency in the history of macroeconomics. It attempts to identify the two routes that research on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics has followed. On the one hand, the relation between employment, wages and inflation (the route indicated by Friedman; on the other hand, the existence of rigidities or a monetary restriction (the route indicated by Clower.

  12. Pedagogic discourse in introductory classes: Multi-dimensional analysis of textbooks and lectures in biology and macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carkin, Susan

    The broad goal of this study is to represent the linguistic variation of textbooks and lectures, the primary input for student learning---and sometimes the sole input in the large introductory classes which characterize General Education at many state universities. Computer techniques are used to analyze a corpus of textbooks and lectures from first-year university classes in macroeconomics and biology. These spoken and written variants are compared to each other as well as to benchmark texts from other multi-dimensional studies in order to examine their patterns, relations, and functions. A corpus consisting of 147,000 words was created from macroeconomics and biology lectures at a medium-large state university and from a set of nationally "best-selling" textbooks used in these same introductory survey courses. The corpus was analyzed using multi-dimensional methodology (Biber, 1988). The analysis consists of both empirical and qualitative phases. Quantitative analyses are undertaken on the linguistic features, their patterns of co-occurrence, and on the contextual elements of classrooms and textbooks. The contextual analysis is used to functionally interpret the statistical patterns of co-occurrence along five dimensions of textual variation, demonstrating patterns of difference and similarity with reference to text excerpts. Results of the analysis suggest that academic discourse is far from monolithic. Pedagogic discourse in introductory classes varies by modality and discipline, but not always in the directions expected. In the present study the most abstract texts were biology lectures---more abstract than written genres of academic prose and more abstract than introductory textbooks. Academic lectures in both disciplines, monologues which carry a heavy informational load, were extremely interactive, more like conversation than academic prose. A third finding suggests that introductory survey textbooks differ from those used in upper division classes by being

  13. THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON CREDIT RISK: CASE OF ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia Andreea Bucur

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to explore the interactions between macroeconomic conditions, such as: real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, market interest rate, broad money supply, foreign exchange rate fluctuation and unemployment rate, and credit risk in Romanian banking sector during 2008-2013. The interrelations of indicators’ complexity imply a multidimensional statistical analysis in order to find a relation between the macroeconomic conditions and the credit risk. Our regression analysis findings confirm the hypothesis according to which the money supply growth rate and the market foreign exchange rate are negatively related with credit risk and the unemployment rate is positively related with it. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the credit risk is significantly and negatively affected by the exchange rate fluctuation and significantly and positively affected by the unemployment rate. The results do not indicate a significant relationship between credit risk and real GDP growth rate.

  14. Low-Frequency Volatility in China’s Gold Futures Market and Its Macroeconomic Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We extract low- and high-frequency volatility from China’s Shanghai gold futures market using an asymmetric Spline-GARCH (ASP-GARCH model. We then regress monthly low-frequency volatility on selected monthly macroeconomic indicators to study the impact of macroeconomy on gold futures market and to test for excess volatility. Our main result is volatility in China’s Shanghai gold futures market resulting from both macroeconomic fluctuations and investor behaviour. Chinese Consumer Price Index Volatility and US dollar volatility are the two main determinants of low-frequency gold volatility. We also find significant evidence of excess volatility, which can in part be explained in terms of loss-aversive investor behaviour.

  15. Analysis of China's Overheated Economy and Macroeconomic Policy Options

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KeshaGuo

    2004-01-01

    Based on macroeconomic analysis since 2003, this article holds mat a trena towaras overheating has surfaced in China's economy. China's rapid economic expansion has affected the quality of its growth, with rising material and energy consumption and imbalanced economic structure as the main manifestations. Regarding macroeconomic policy options in 2004, decision-makers should shift the policy focus from control of deflation to prevention of inflation; the pace of economic growth should be properly set; a balance between consumption and investment should be strengthened by controlling excessive expansion of investment, and industrial restructuring should be conducted in a coordinated manner on the basis of properly controlling the overly rapid indastrial growth; policies should be continued to boost exports and sustainable growth of foreign investment; and more efforts should be made to accelerate the change in the mode of economic growth.

  16. Does U.S. macroeconomic news make emerging financial markets riskier?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esin Cakan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the impacts of US macroeconomic announcement surprises on the volatility of twelve emerging stock markets by employing asymmetric GJR-GARCH model. The model includes both positive and negative surprises about inflation and unemployment rate announcements in the U.S. We find that volatility shocks are persistent and asymmetric. Asymmetric volatility increases with bad news on US inflation in five out of the twelve countries studied and it increases with a bad news on U.S. unemployment in four out of twelve countries. Asymmetric volatility decreases with good news about US employment situation in eight countries out of twelve countries. Such markets become less risky with an unexpected decrease in unemployment rate in the US. Our findings are important for demonstrating that USA economic growth and employment situation has an impact on many emerging stock markets and that positive US macroeconomic news in fact make many emerging stock markets less volatile.

  17. Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Fu

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts to shareholders. A stochastic discount factor motivated by the consumption-based asset pricing model is utilized. A single macroeconomic factor, namely the output gap determines the non-fundamental component of stock prices. A resulting trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR model of stock prices, broad dividends, and the output gap shows evidence of cointegration in the DJIA and S&P 500 index data. Nonetheless, a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveals existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in S&P 500 data during the late 1990s.

  18. Socioeconomic position, macroeconomic environment and overweight among adolescents in 35 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Due, Pernille; Damsgaard, M Rasmussen, MT; Holstein, Bjørn;

    2009-01-01

    Objective It is important to understand levels and social inequalities in childhood overweight within and between countries. This study examined prevalence and social inequality in adolescent overweight in 35 countries, and associations with macroeconomic factors. Design International cross...... associated with prevalence and socioeconomic inequality in overweight among the 23-high income and 10-middle income countries, with a positive relationship among the high income countries and a negative association among the middle income countries. Conclusion The direction and magnitude of social inequality...... in adolescent overweight shows large international variation, with negative social gradients in most countries, but positive social gradients, especially for boys, in some Central European countries. Macroeconomic factors are associated with the heterogeneity in prevalence and social inequality of adolescent...

  19. An Analysis of the Influence of Chinese Agriculture on National Economy and the Macroeconomic Effects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ming GE; Suping ZHAO

    2015-01-01

    As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and national economy and its macroeconomic effects by the methods of input-output analysis,industrial correlation and macroeconomic effect analysis. The results show that the agricultural development is highly dependent on the national economy,but makes low contribution; agriculture contributes to promoting employment and improving the structure of national income distribution; despite the government’s tax incentive,the agricultural equipments are updated slowly,and the corporate profits are at low level; agricultural export effect is far below the average industry level,but the import effect increases over the years,and final products are often used for domestic consumption. Finally,we set forth recommendations for improving the development of agriculture and national economy.

  20. ROMANIAN MACROECONOMIC STABILITY BETWEEN THE BALANCE OF PAYMENT ASSISTANCE AND THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Dragan

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The first EU Alert Mechanism Report demonstrates the vulnerable macroeconomic external position of Romania, the current Romanian’s balance of payments reflecting a severe need of financing and capitalization. On the other hand, the 2007-2013 programming period potentially provided a significant amount of EU money for investments (around 29 billion euro through Structural Funds. However, five years after the beginning of the current financial framework, the level of absorption remains extremely low. The paper focuses on the main Romanian macroeconomic imbalances (the current account balance,international investment position and on the most important sources for financing investments and development - the EU financial structural instruments: ERDF and Cohesion Fund.