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Sample records for macroeconomic simultaneous equation

  1. Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achdou, Yves; Buera, Francisco J; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis; Moll, Benjamin

    2014-11-13

    The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  2. SIMULTANEOUS DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION COMPUTER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, D.M.; Meeks, L.A.; Palmer, J.P.

    1960-05-10

    A description is given for an electronic simulator for a system of simultaneous differential equations, including nonlinear equations. As a specific example, a homogeneous nuclear reactor system including a reactor fluid, heat exchanger, and a steam boiler may be simulated, with the nonlinearity resulting from a consideration of temperature effects taken into account. The simulator includes three operational amplifiers, a multiplier, appropriate potential sources, and interconnecting R-C networks.

  3. Control functions in nonseparable simultaneous equations models

    OpenAIRE

    Blundell, R.; Matzkin, R. L.

    2014-01-01

    The control function approach (Heckman and Robb (1985)) in a system of linear simultaneous equations provides a convenient procedure to estimate one of the functions in the system using reduced form residuals from the other functions as additional regressors. The conditions on the structural system under which this procedure can be used in nonlinear and nonparametric simultaneous equations has thus far been unknown. In this paper, we define a new property of functions called control function ...

  4. Interactive Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Guilmi, Corrado; Gallegati, Mauro; Landini, Simone

    2017-04-01

    Preface; List of tables; List of figures, 1. Introduction; Part I. Methodological Notes and Tools: 2. The state space notion; 3. The master equation; Part II. Applications to HIA Based Models: 4. Financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics I: heterogeneity and interaction; 5. Financial fragility and macroeconomic Dynamics II: learning; Part III. Conclusions: 6. Conclusive remarks; Part IV. Appendices and Complements: Appendix A: Complements to Chapter 3; Appendix B: Solving the ME to solve the ABM; Appendix C: Specifying transition rates; Index.

  5. students' preference of method of solving simultaneous equations

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ugboduma,Samuel.O.

    substitution method irrespective of their gender for solving simultaneous equations. A recommendation ... advantage given to one method over others. Students' interest .... from two (2) single girls' schools, two (2) single boys schools and ten.

  6. On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polshkov Yulian M.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article considers data on the gross domestic product, consumer expenditures, gross investments and volume of foreign trade for the national economy. It is assumed that time is a discrete variable with one year iteration. The article uses finite-difference equations. It considers models with a high degree of the regulatory function of the state with respect to the consumer market. The econometric component is based on the hypothesis that each of the above said macro-economic indicators for this year depends on the gross domestic product for the previous time periods. Such an assumption gives a possibility to engage the least-squares method for building up linear models of the pair regression. The article obtains the time series model, which allows building point and interval forecasts for the gross domestic product for the next year based on the values of the gross domestic product for the current and previous years. The article draws a conclusion that such forecasts could be considered justified at least in the short-term prospect. From the mathematical point of view the built model is a heterogeneous finite-difference equation of the second order with constant ratios. The article describes specific features of such equations. It illustrates graphically the analytical view of solutions of the finite-difference equation. This gives grounds to differentiate national economies as sustainable growth economies, one-sided, weak or being in the stage of successful re-formation. The article conducts comparison of the listed types with specific economies of modern states.

  7. Simultaneous-equations Analysis in Regional Science and Economic Geography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo; Stephan, Andreas

    This paper provides an overview over simultaneous equation models (SEM) in the context of analyses based on regional data. We describe various modelling approaches and highlight close link of SEMs to theory and also comment on the advantages and disadvantages of SEMs.We present selected empirical...

  8. Novel algorithm of large-scale simultaneous linear equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujiwara, T; Hoshi, T; Yamamoto, S; Sogabe, T; Zhang, S-L

    2010-01-01

    We review our recently developed methods of solving large-scale simultaneous linear equations and applications to electronic structure calculations both in one-electron theory and many-electron theory. This is the shifted COCG (conjugate orthogonal conjugate gradient) method based on the Krylov subspace, and the most important issue for applications is the shift equation and the seed switching method, which greatly reduce the computational cost. The applications to nano-scale Si crystals and the double orbital extended Hubbard model are presented.

  9. Ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    by a more theoretical debate and increased interaction between the heterodox schools of ecological economics and post-Keynesian economics. In addition, both the degrowth community and the research community organized around sustainable transitions of socio-technical systems have contributed to discussions...... on how to reconcile environmental and social concerns. Based on this broad variety of pieces in a jigsaw puzzle, a new ecological macroeconomics is emerging, but the contours are still vague. This chapter seeks to outline some of this topography and to add a few pieces of its own by highlighting the need...... to shift resources from consumption to investment and describing the role of consumer-citizens in such a change. The chapter starts by identifying the problems and challenges for an ecological macroeconomics. The next section outlines some of the shortcomings of traditional macroeconomics...

  10. Asymmetric information and macroeconomic dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Raymond J.; Aoki, Masanao; Roy Frieden, B.

    2010-09-01

    We show how macroeconomic dynamics can be derived from asymmetric information. As an illustration of the utility of this approach we derive the equilibrium density, non-equilibrium densities and the equation of motion for the response to a demand shock for productivity in a simple economy. Novel consequences of this approach include a natural incorporation of time dependence into macroeconomics and a common information-theoretic basis for economics and other fields seeking to link micro-dynamics and macro-observables.

  11. Macroeconomic stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    It is demonstrated that full employment and sustainable development not necessarily are conflicting goals. On the other hand macroeconomic stability cannot be obtained without a deliberate labour sharing policy and a shift in the composition of private consumption away from traditional material...

  12. Full information estimations of a system of simultaneous equations with error component structure

    OpenAIRE

    Balestra, Pietro; Krishnakumar, Jaya

    1987-01-01

    In this paper we develop full information methods for estimating the parameters of a system of simultaneous equations with error component struc-ture and establish relationships between the various structural estimat

  13. Conditions for the existence of control functions in nonseparable simultaneous equations models

    OpenAIRE

    Blundell, Richard; Matzkin, Rosa L.

    2010-01-01

    The control function approach (Heckman and Robb (1985)) in a system of linear simultaneous equations provides a convenient procedure to estimate one of the functions in the system using reduced form residuals from the other functions as additional regressors. The conditions on the structural system under which this procedure can be used in nonlinear and nonparametric simultaneous equations has thus far been unknown. In this note, we define a new property of functions called control function s...

  14. Generalized Path Analysis and Generalized Simultaneous Equations Model for Recursive Systems with Responses of Mixed Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Tien-Lung; Shau, Wen-Yi; Hu, Fu-Chang

    2006-01-01

    This article generalizes linear path analysis (PA) and simultaneous equations models (SiEM) to deal with mixed responses of different types in a recursive or triangular system. An efficient instrumental variable (IV) method for estimating the structural coefficients of a 2-equation partially recursive generalized path analysis (GPA) model and…

  15. On extension of solutions of a simultaneous system of iterative functional equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janusz Matkowski

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Some sufficient conditions which allow to extend every local solution of a simultaneous system of equations in a single variable of the form \\[ \\varphi(x = h (x, \\varphi[f_1(x],\\ldots,\\varphi[f_m(x],\\] \\[\\varphi(x = H (x, \\varphi[F_1(x],\\ldots,\\varphi[F_m(x],\\] to a global one are presented. Extensions of solutions of functional equations, both in single and in several variables, play important role (cf. for instance [M. Kuczma, Functional equations in a single variable, Monografie Mat. 46, Polish Scientific Publishers, Warsaw, 1968, M. Kuczma, B. Choczewski, R. Ger, Iterative functional equations, Encyclopedia of Mathematics and Its Applications v. 32, Cambridge, 1990, J. Matkowski, Iteration groups, commuting functions and simultaneous systems of linear functional equations, Opuscula Math. 28 (2008 4, 531-541].

  16. Simultaneous exact controllability for Maxwell equations and for a second-order hyperbolic system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V. Kapitonov

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a result on "simultaneous" exact controllability for two models that describe two hyperbolic dynamics. One is the system of Maxwell equations and the other a vector-wave equation with a pressure term. We obtain the main result using modified multipliers in order to generate a necessary observability estimate which allow us to use the Hilbert Uniqueness Method (HUM introduced by Lions.

  17. Gender, Space, and the Location Changes of Jobs and People : A Spatial Simultaneous Equations Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogstra, Gerke J.

    This article summarizes a spatial econometric analysis of local population and employment growth in the Netherlands, with specific reference to impacts of gender and space. The simultaneous equations model used distinguishes between population- and gender-specific employment groups, and includes

  18. USING SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS MODELS TO ANALYZE THE CAUSES OF CORRUPTION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TUDOREL ANDREI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available For a country that is in the process of integration into EU structures, reducing the corruption is a good sign for attracting foreign investment and developing the economic environment. The paper estimates the parameters of a simultaneous equation model based on data sets obtained at a sample of employees in public administration. Statistical sample consist in 407 people and the maximum allowable error was estimated at ± 2.5%. For the effective development of the statistical questionnaire we identified major themes of public administration that are directly related to the problem of corruption: managing the institution, the civil service, transparency in the system, the decentralization process, causes and effects of corruption and the quality of the reform in the public administration. Based on the questionnaire we defined primary and secondary variables that have been used to define the model with simultaneous equations. For the variables in the model they have been divided into endogenous and exogenous.

  19. The Macroeconomics of Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addison, Tony; Morrissey, Oliver; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    This Special Issue explores macroeconomic effects of aid from various perspectives through a blend of studies, both conceptual and empirical in nature. The overall aim is to enhance the understanding of the macroeconomic dimensions of aid in the policy and research communities, and to inspire...

  20. Macroeconomics in develpoing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Nayyar

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available This essay analyzes the differences between the economies of industrialized countriesand developing countries, which have important implications for macroeconomics interms of theory and policy. It considers the differences in macroeconomic objectives andexamines why the reach of macroeconomic policies is different in the two sets ofcountries. It argues that the distinction between short-run macroeconomic models andlong-term growth models is not quite appropriate for developing countries, wheremacroeconomic constraints on growth straddle time horizons and short-term policieshave long-term consequences. The essential hypothesis is that the nature of relationshipsand the direction of causation in macroeconomics, which shape analysis, diagnosis andprescription, depend on the institutional setting and not the analytical structure of models.And even if some laws of economics are universal, the functioning of economies can bemarkedly different. Therefore, economic theory and policy analysis should recognize,rather than ignore, such myriad differences.

  1. Three Essays on Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doda, Lider Baran

    This dissertation consists of three independent essays in macroeconomics. The first essay studies the transition to a low carbon economy using an extension of the neoclassical growth model featuring endogenous energy efficiency, exhaustible energy and explicit climate-economy interaction. I derive the properties of the laissez faire equilibrium and compare them to the optimal allocations of a social planner who internalizes the climate change externality. Three main results emerge. First, the exhaustibility of energy generates strong market based incentives to improve energy efficiency and reduce CO 2 emissions without any government intervention. Second, the market and optimal allocations are substantially different suggesting a role for the government. Third, high and persistent taxes are required to implement the optimal allocations as a competitive equilibrium with taxes. The second essay focuses on coal fired power plants (CFPP) - one of the largest sources of CO2 emissions globally - and their generation efficiency using a macroeconomic model with an embedded CFPP sector. A key feature of the model is the endogenous choice of production technologies which differ in their energy efficiency. After establishing four empirical facts about the CFPP sector, I analyze the long run quantitative effects of energy taxes. Using the calibrated model, I find that sector-specific coal taxes have large effects on generation efficiency by inducing the use of more efficient technologies. Moreover, such taxes achieve large CO2 emissions reductions with relatively small effects on consumption and output. The final essay studies the procyclicality of fiscal policy in developing countries, which is a well-documented empirical observation seemingly at odds with Neoclassical and Keynesian policy prescriptions. I examine this issue by solving the optimal fiscal policy problem of a small open economy government when the interest rates on external debt are endogenous. Given an

  2. Shooting method for third order simultaneous ordinary differential equations with application to magnetohydrodynamic boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivastava, A.C.; Hazarika, G.C.

    1990-01-01

    An algorithm based on the shooting method has been developed for the solution of a two-point boundary value problem consisting of a system of third order simultaneous ordinary differential equations. The Falkner-Skan equations for electrically conducting viscous fluid with applied magnetic field has been solved by using this algorithm for various values of the wedge angle and magnetic parameters. The shooting method seems to be well convergent for a system as the results are in good agreement with those obtained by other methods. It is observed that both viscous boundary layer and magnetic boundary layer decrease while velocity as well as magnetic field increase with the increase of the wedge angle. (author). 6 tabs., 7 refs

  3. Bayesian simultaneous equation models for the analysis of energy intake and partitioning in growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Jørgensen, Henry; Kebreab, E

    2012-01-01

    ABSTRACT SUMMARY The objective of the current study was to develop Bayesian simultaneous equation models for modelling energy intake and partitioning in growing pigs. A key feature of the Bayesian approach is that parameters are assigned prior distributions, which may reflect the current state...... of nature. In the models, rates of metabolizable energy (ME) intake, protein deposition (PD) and lipid deposition (LD) were treated as dependent variables accounting for residuals being correlated. Two complementary equation systems were used to model ME intake (MEI), PD and LD. Informative priors were...... developed, reflecting current knowledge about metabolic scaling and partial efficiencies of PD and LD rates, whereas flat non-informative priors were used for the reminder of the parameters. The experimental data analysed originate from a balance and respiration trial with 17 cross-bred pigs of three...

  4. Macroeconomics and Growth Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Jayati Ghosh

    2007-01-01

    This United Nations Background Note on Macroeconomics and Growth provides practical guidance on how to operationalize alternative equitable and employment-generating macroeconomic and growth policies in National Development Strategies. This Policy Note has been developed in cooperation with UN agencies, and has been officially reviewed by distinguished academics/ development specialists such as Jose Antonio Ocampo, Jomo K.S. and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz.

  5. Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation Using Maximum Relative Entropy with Nonhomogenous Differential Equation Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adom Giffin

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we continue our efforts to show how maximum relative entropy (MrE can be used as a universal updating algorithm. Here, our purpose is to tackle a joint state and parameter estimation problem where our system is nonlinear and in a non-equilibrium state, i.e., perturbed by varying external forces. Traditional parameter estimation can be performed by using filters, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF. However, as shown with a toy example of a system with first order non-homogeneous ordinary differential equations, assumptions made by the EKF algorithm (such as the Markov assumption may not be valid. The problem can be solved with exponential smoothing, e.g., exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA. Although this has been shown to produce acceptable filtering results in real exponential systems, it still cannot simultaneously estimate both the state and its parameters and has its own assumptions that are not always valid, for example when jump discontinuities exist. We show that by applying MrE as a filter, we can not only develop the closed form solutions, but we can also infer the parameters of the differential equation simultaneously with the means. This is useful in real, physical systems, where we want to not only filter the noise from our measurements, but we also want to simultaneously infer the parameters of the dynamics of a nonlinear and non-equilibrium system. Although there were many assumptions made throughout the paper to illustrate that EKF and exponential smoothing are special cases ofMrE, we are not “constrained”, by these assumptions. In other words, MrE is completely general and can be used in broader ways.

  6. Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.

  7. Analysis of rice policy based on presidential instruction on household food security: simultaneous equation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, S. A.

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this research is to analyze the impacts of rice policy on the household food security. The research used cross section data, were collected from 74 respondent as determined by purposive sampling in Sei Rejo villages, the Sub District of Sei Rampah, Serdang Bedagai District in the Province of North Sumatera. Rice policy model specification uses the simultaneous equations consisting of 6 structural equations and 6 identity equations which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that the effectiveness of government purchase price of dried harvest paddy gave a positive impact on paddy planted area and lead to an increase paddy production and an increase of the rice production gave a positive impact on household rice availability and household rice surplus, and the increase of household rice surplus gave the quantity of Raskin decrease, whereas the increase of fertilizers gave a negative impact on paddy planted area and lead to decrease paddy production and to decrease in rice production was followed by an decrease in household rice availability and household rice surplus, and the decrease of household rice surplus gave the quantity of Raskin increase.

  8. Macroeconomic Issues in Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjertholm, Peter; Laursen, Jytte; White, Howard

    foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,......foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,...

  9. Macroeconomic Proportions and Corellations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The work is focusing on the main proportions and correlations which are being set up between the major macroeconomic indicators. This is the general frame for the analysis of the relations between the Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the unemployment rate; the interaction between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate; the connection between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Within the analysis being performed, a particular attention is paid to �the basic relationship of the economic growth� by emphasizing the possibilities as to a factorial analysis of the macroeconomic development, mainly as far as the Gross Domestic Product is concerned. At this point, the authors are introducing the mathematical relations, which are used for modeling the macroeconomic correlations, hence the strictness of the analysis being performed.

  10. Macroeconomic Proportions and Corellations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Mitrut

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The work is focusing on the main proportions and correlations which are being set up between the major macroeconomic indicators. This is the general frame for the analysis of the relations between the Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the unemployment rate; the interaction between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate; the connection between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Within the analysis being performed, a particular attention is paid to “the basic relationship of the economic growth” by emphasizing the possibilities as to a factorial analysis of the macroeconomic development, mainly as far as the Gross Domestic Product is concerned. At this point, the authors are introducing the mathematical relations, which are used for modeling the macroeconomic correlations, hence the strictness of the analysis being performed.

  11. Turn on the Lights: Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Renewable in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Ihtisham Abdul Malik; Ghamz-e-Ali Siyal; Alias Bin Abdullah; Arif Alam; Khalid Zaman

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the study is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic factors (i.e., population growth; urbanization, industrialization, exchange rate, price level, food production index and live stock production index) and renewable energy in Pakistan over a period of 1975-2012. In addition, this study uses oil rent as an intervening variable to overcome the biasness of the single equation model. The results indicate that macroeconomic factors positively contributed to renewable en...

  12. The macroeconomics of banking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Kwaak, C.G.F.

    2017-01-01

    This thesis studies the macroeconomic effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in an environment where commercial banks are undercapitalized after a financial crisis and have large holdings of (risky) government bonds on their balance sheets. An undercapitalized banking system cannot perfectly

  13. Spectrophotometric estimation of ethamsylate and mefenamic acid from a binary mixture by dual wavelength and simultaneous equation methods

    OpenAIRE

    Goyal Anju; Singhvi I

    2008-01-01

    Two simple, accurate, economical and reproducible spectrophotometric methods for simultaneous estimation of two-component drug mixture of ethamsylate and mefenamic acid in combined tablet dosage form have been developed. The first developed method involves formation and solving of simultaneous equation using 287.6 nm and 313.2 nm as two wavelengths. Second developed method is based on two wavelength calculation. Two wavelengths selected for estimation of ethamsylate were 274.4 nm and 301.2 nm...

  14. Gender, space, and the location changes of jobs and people: a spatial simultaneous equations analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogstra, Gerke J

    2012-01-01

    This article summarizes a spatial econometric analysis of local population and employment growth in the Netherlands, with specific reference to impacts of gender and space. The simultaneous equations model used distinguishes between population- and gender-specific employment groups, and includes autoregressive and cross-regressive spatial lags to detect relations both within and among these groups. Spatial weights matrices reflecting different bands of travel times are used to calculate the spatial lags and to gauge the spatial nature of these relations. The empirical results show that although population–employment interaction is more localized for women's employment, no gender difference exists in the direction of interaction. Employment growth for both men and women is more influenced by population growth than vice versa. The interaction within employment groups is even more important than population growth. Women's, and especially men's, local employment growth mostly benefits from the same employment growth in neighboring locations. Finally, interaction between these groups is practically absent, although men's employment growth may have a negative impact on women's employment growth within small geographic areas. In summary, the results confirm the crucial roles of gender and space, and offer important insights into possible relations within and among subgroups of jobs and people.

  15. Recovering the source and initial value simultaneously in a parabolic equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Guang-Hui; Wei, Ting

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we consider an inverse problem to simultaneously reconstruct the source term and initial data associated with a parabolic equation based on the additional temperature data at a terminal time t = T and the temperature data on an accessible part of a boundary. The conditional stability and uniqueness of the inverse problem are established. We apply a variational regularization method to recover the source and initial value. The existence, uniqueness and stability of the minimizer of the corresponding variational problem are obtained. Taking the minimizer as a regularized solution for the inverse problem, under an a priori and an a posteriori parameter choice rule, the convergence rates of the regularized solution under a source condition are also given. Furthermore, the source condition is characterized by an optimal control approach. Finally, we use a conjugate gradient method and a stopping criterion given by Morozov's discrepancy principle to solve the variational problem. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. (papers)

  16. MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF DECENTRALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Cornelia STOICA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of decentralization has a variety of expressions, but the meaning generally accepted refers to the transfer of authority and responsibility of the public functions from central government to sub-national public entities or even to the private sector. Decentralization process is complex, affecting many aspects of social and economic life and public management, and its design and implementation cover several stages, depending on the cyclical and structural developments of the country. From an economic perspective, decentralization is seen as a means of primary importance in terms of improving the effectiveness and efficiency of public services and macroeconomic stability due to the redistribution of public finances while in a much closer logic of the government policy objectives. But the decentralization process behaves as well some risks, because it involves the implementation of appropriate mechanisms for the establishment of income and expenditure programming at the subnational level, which, if is not correlated with macroeconomic policy imperatives can lead to major imbalances, both financially as in termes of economic and social life. Equally, ensuring the balance of the budget at the local level is imperative to fulfill, this goal imposing a legal framework and specific procedures to size transfers of public funds, targeted or untargeted. Also, public and local authorities have to adopt appropriate laws and regulations such that sub-national public entities can access loans - such as bank loans or debentures from domestic or external market - in terms of a strict monitoring national financial stability. In all aspects of decentralization - political, administrative, financial -, public authorities should develop and implement the most effective mechanisms to coordinate macroeconomic objectives and both sectoral and local interests and establish clear responsibilities - exclusive or shared - for all parties involved in the

  17. Is macroeconomic announcement news priced?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Goeij, Peter; Hu, Jiehui; Werker, Bas

    2016-01-01

    We test whether news contained in macroeconomic announcements (MEAs) is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. When including news on a set of widely followed individual macroeconomic fundamentals in the cross-section of stock returns, estimates of their prices of risk are consistent with the

  18. Nonlinearities in Behavioral Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Orlando

    2017-07-01

    This article undertakes a journey across the literature on behavioral macroeconomics, with attention concentrated on the nonlinearities that the behavioral approach typically suggests or implies. The emphasis is placed on thinking the macro economy as a living organism, composed of many interacting parts, each one having a will of its own, which is in sharp contrast with the mechanism of the orthodox view (well represented by the neoclassical or new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium - DSGE - model). The paper advocates that a thorough understanding of individual behavior in collective contexts is the only possible avenue to further explore macroeconomic phenomena and the often observed 'anomalies' that the benchmark DSGE macro framework is unable to explain or justify. After a reflection on the role of behavioral traits as a fundamental component of a new way of thinking the economy, the article proceeds with a debate on some of the most relevant frameworks in the literature that somehow link macro behavior and nonlinearities; covered subjects include macro models with disequilibrium rules, agent-based models that highlight interaction and complexity, evolutionary switching frameworks, and inattention based decision problems. These subjects have, as a fundamental point in common, the use of behavioral elements to transform existing interpretations of the economic reality, making it more evident how irregular fluctuations emerge and unfold on the aggregate.

  19. Neural network based online simultaneous policy update algorithm for solving the HJI equation in nonlinear H∞ control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huai-Ning; Luo, Biao

    2012-12-01

    It is well known that the nonlinear H∞ state feedback control problem relies on the solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs (HJI) equation, which is a nonlinear partial differential equation that has proven to be impossible to solve analytically. In this paper, a neural network (NN)-based online simultaneous policy update algorithm (SPUA) is developed to solve the HJI equation, in which knowledge of internal system dynamics is not required. First, we propose an online SPUA which can be viewed as a reinforcement learning technique for two players to learn their optimal actions in an unknown environment. The proposed online SPUA updates control and disturbance policies simultaneously; thus, only one iterative loop is needed. Second, the convergence of the online SPUA is established by proving that it is mathematically equivalent to Newton's method for finding a fixed point in a Banach space. Third, we develop an actor-critic structure for the implementation of the online SPUA, in which only one critic NN is needed for approximating the cost function, and a least-square method is given for estimating the NN weight parameters. Finally, simulation studies are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  20. Evaluation of equations of state for simultaneous representation of phase equilibrium and critical phenomena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto Coelho Muniz Vinhal, Andre; Yan, Wei; Kontogeorgis, Georgios

    2017-01-01

    of the Cubic-Plus-Association (CPA) equation of state (EoS). We obtained new parameters for methanol and alkanes from n-hexane to n-decane. The comparison with the original parameters showed that this procedure is important for associating compounds, since for inert species the equation reduces to the Soave......-Redlich-Kwong (SRK) EoS. The application of the rescaled parameters improved the critical point representation of pure fluids at the expense of the saturated liquid phase volume description. In the case of binary mixtures containing methanol and n-alkanes, the association model with the new parameters satisfactorily...

  1. Rethinking macroeconomic policies for development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Nayyar

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The global economic crisis has created an opportunity to rethink macroeconomics for development. Such rethinking is both necessary and desirable. It is essential to redefine macroeconomic objectives so that the emphasis is on fostering employment creation and supporting economic growth instead of the focus on price stability alone. It is just as important to rethink macroeconomic policies which cannot simply be used for the management of inflation and the elimination of macroeconomic imbalances, since fiscal and monetary policies are powerful and versatile instruments in the pursuit of development objectives. In doing so, it is essential to the overcome the constraints embedded in orthodox economic thinking and recognize the constraints implicit in the politics of ideology and interests.

  2. Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Peter N; Wickens, Michael R.

    2002-01-01

    This Paper is an exploration into the links between macroeconomics and finance as they affect the FOREX risk premium. SDF theory is used in which the factors are observable macroeconomic variables. Three SDF theories are compared: a benchmark model based on traditional tests of FOREX efficiency; consumption-based CAPM; and the monetary model of the exchange rate. The theory takes account of both domestic and foreign investors. The joint distribution of the excess return to FOREX and the macro...

  3. Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising

    OpenAIRE

    Isil Erel; Brandon Julio; Woojin Kim; Michael S. Weisbach

    2011-01-01

    Do macroeconomic conditions affect firms' abilities to raise capital? If so, how do they affect the manner in which the capital is raised? We address these questions using a large sample of publicly-traded debt issues, seasoned equity offers, bank loans and private placements of equity and debt. Our results suggest that a borrower's credit quality significantly affects its ability to raise capital during macroeconomic downturns. For noninvestment-grade borrowers, capital raising tends to be p...

  4. Microeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Indeterminacy

    OpenAIRE

    Fagnart, Jean-François; Pierrard, Olivier; Sneessens, Henri

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a stylized intertemporal macroeconomic model wherein the combination of decentralized trading and microeconomic uncertainty (taking the form of privately observed and uninsured idiosyncratic shocks) creates an information problem between agents and generates indeterminacy of the macroeconomic equilibrium. For a given value of the economic fundamentals, the economy admits a continuum of equilibria that can be indexed by the sales expectations of firms at the time of investme...

  5. Unified Framework for Deriving Simultaneous Equation Algorithms for Water Distribution Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    The known formulations for steady state hydraulics within looped water distribution networks are re-derived in terms of linear and non-linear transformations of the original set of partly linear and partly non-linear equations that express conservation of mass and energy. All of ...

  6. Spectrophotometric estimation of ethamsylate and mefenamic Acid from a binary mixture by dual wavelength and simultaneous equation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, Anju; Singhvi, I

    2008-01-01

    Two simple, accurate, economical and reproducible spectrophotometric methods for simultaneous estimation of two-component drug mixture of ethamsylate and mefenamic acid in combined tablet dosage form have been developed. The first developed method involves formation and solving of simultaneous equation using 287.6 nm and 313.2 nm as two wavelengths. Second developed method is based on two wavelength calculation. Two wavelengths selected for estimation of ethamsylate were 274.4 nm and 301.2 nm while that for mefenamic acid were 304.8 nm and 320.4 nm. Both the developed methods obey Beer's law in the concentration ranges employed for the respective methods. The results of analysis were validated statistically and by recovery studies.

  7. MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF COMPETITIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Hooke

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In the process of globalization of world economic processes, the role of individual national economies increases, comparative advantages of the development of a country are formed, and their competitiveness is ensured. That is why it is worth emphasizing the importance of increasing the competitiveness of each individual country, based on its internal capacity. In a broad aspect, the competitiveness of the national economy is perceived as the ability of the country to ensure the balance of its external proportions and to avoid those constraints imposed by the foreign economic sphere, to self-organizing the improvement of their world economic ties. The competitiveness of the economy at the macro level is associated with the duration of the cycle of reproduction of the main productive assets and, accordingly, the jobs, productive forces of society and determined by the overall economic efficiency of investment. The criteria of competitiveness of the national economy are the growth of social productivity of labor, increase of social and economic efficiency of production and standard of living of the population. The competitiveness of the national economy determines sustainable socio-economic development of the country, as well as sustainable development predetermines the competitiveness of not only the country, but also all its levels. Scientific results are obtained using special methods of research of economic objects and phenomena, that is, based on the correlation and regressive, comparative analysis (establishing the relationship between the indicator factor, as well as economic modeling. Findings. Generalizing analysis and the importance of the macroeconomic aspect of competitiveness were used in the research paper, which will allow to better respond to the economic situation, in accordance with the trends of the “green” transformation of the economy; which in turn will solve important problems of the development and implementation of its

  8. [Biotechnology's macroeconomic impact].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dones Tacero, Milagros; Pérez García, Julián; San Román, Antonio Pulido

    2008-12-01

    This paper tries to yield an economic valuation of biotechnological activities in terms of aggregated production and employment. This valuation goes beyond direct estimation and includes the indirect effects derived from sectorial linkages between biotechnological activities and the rest of economic system. To deal with the proposed target several sources of data have been used, including official data from National Statistical Office (INE) such us national accounts, input-output tables, and innovation surveys, as well as, firms' level balance sheets and income statements and also specific information about research projects compiled by Genoma Spain Foundation. Methodological approach is based on the estimation of a new input-output table which includes the biotechnological activities as a specific branch. This table offers both the direct impact of these activities and the main parameters to obtain the induced effects over the rest of the economic system. According to the most updated available figures, biotechnological activities would have directly generated almost 1,600 millions of euros in 2005, and they would be employed more than 9,000 workers. But if we take into account the full linkages with the rest of the system, the macroeconomic impact of Biotechnological activities would reach around 5,000 millions euros in production terms (0.6% of total GDP) and would be responsible, directly or indirectly, of more than 44,000 employments.

  9. CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth nexus in MENA countries: Evidence from simultaneous equations models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omri, Anis

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the nexus between CO 2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth using simultaneous-equations models with panel data of 14 MENA countries over the period 1990–2011. Our empirical results show that there exists a bidirectional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. However, the results support the occurrence of unidirectional causality from energy consumption to CO 2 emissions without any feedback effects, and there exists a bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and CO 2 emissions for the region as a whole. The study suggests that environmental and energy policies should recognize the differences in the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth in order to maintain sustainable economic growth in the MENA region. - Graphical abstract: Interaction between CO 2 , energy and GDP for MENA countries. - Highlights: • We investigate the energy–environment–GDP nexus for 14 MENA countries. • We have used simultaneous equations models estimated by the GMM-estimator. • Results show bi-directional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. • There is uni-directional causality from energy consumption to CO 2 . • There exists bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and pollutant emissions

  10. Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omri, Anis; Kahouli, Bassem

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the interrelationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth using dynamic panel data models in simultaneous-equations for a global panel consisting of 65 countries. The time component of our dataset is 1990–2011 inclusive. To make the panel data analysis more homogenous, we also investigate this interrelationship for a number of sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. In this way, we end up with three income panels; namely, high income, middle income, and low income panels. In the empirical part, we draw on the growth theory and augment the classical growth model, which consists of capital stock, labor force and inflation, with foreign direct investment and energy. Generally, we show mixed results about the interrelationship between energy consumption, FDI and economic growth. - Highlights: • We examine the energy–FDI–growth nexus for a global panel of 65 countries. • Dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data models are used to address this issue. • We also investigate this nexus for three sub-panels which are constructed based on the income level of countries. • We show mixed results about the interrelationship between the three variables

  11. Hopf bifurcation and chaos in macroeconomic models with policy lag

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Xiaofeng; Li Chuandong; Zhou Shangbo

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the macroeconomic models with policy lag, and study how lags in policy response affect the macroeconomic stability. The local stability of the nonzero equilibrium of this equation is investigated by analyzing the corresponding transcendental characteristic equation of its linearized equation. Some general stability criteria involving the policy lag and the system parameter are derived. By choosing the policy lag as a bifurcation parameter, the model is found to undergo a sequence of Hopf bifurcation. The direction and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined by using the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. Moreover, we show that the government can stabilize the intrinsically unstable economy if the policy lag is sufficiently short, but the system become locally unstable when the policy lag is too long. We also find the chaotic behavior in some range of the policy lag

  12. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  13. Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in MENA Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Balcilar, Mehmet; Bagzibagli, Kemal

    2010-01-01

    A close examination of the MENA region economies reveals a number of fundamental sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. These include economic factors such as exchange rate instability, large public debt, current account deficits, and escalation of inflation. The political factors such as government instability, corruption, bureaucracy, and internal conflicts also are major sources of macroeconomic instability. Thus, the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in these countri...

  14. Simultaneous inversion for the space-dependent diffusion coefficient and the fractional order in the time-fractional diffusion equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Gongsheng; Zhang, Dali; Jia, Xianzheng; Yamamoto, Masahiro

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with an inverse problem of simultaneously identifying the space-dependent diffusion coefficient and the fractional order in the 1D time-fractional diffusion equation with smooth initial functions by using boundary measurements. The uniqueness results for the inverse problem are proved on the basis of the inverse eigenvalue problem, and the Lipschitz continuity of the solution operator is established. A modified optimal perturbation algorithm with a regularization parameter chosen by a sigmoid-type function is put forward for the discretization of the minimization problem. Numerical inversions are performed for the diffusion coefficient taking on different functional forms and the additional data having random noise. Several factors which have important influences on the realization of the algorithm are discussed, including the approximate space of the diffusion coefficient, the regularization parameter and the initial iteration. The inversion solutions are good approximations to the exact solutions with stability and adaptivity demonstrating that the optimal perturbation algorithm with the sigmoid-type regularization parameter is efficient for the simultaneous inversion. (paper)

  15. The Effect of Off-Farm Employment on Forestland Transfers in China: A Simultaneous-Equation Tobit Model Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available China’s new round tenure reform has devolved collective forests to individuals on an egalitarian basis. To balance the equity–efficiency dilemma, forestland transfers are highly advocated by policymakers. However, the forestland rental market is still inactive after the reform. To examine the role of off-farm employment in forestland transfers, a simultaneous Tobit system of equations was employed to account for the endogeneity, interdependency, and censoring issues. Accordingly, the Nelson–Olson two-stage procedure, embedded with a multivariate Tobit estimator, was applied to a nationally representative dataset. The estimation results showed that off-farm employment plays a significantly negative role in forestland rent-in, at the 5% risk level. However, off-farm activities had no significant effect on forestland rent-out. Considering China’s specific situation, a reasonable explanation is that households hold forestland as a crucial means of social security against the risk of unemployment. In both rent-in and rent-out equations, high transaction costs are one of the main obstacles impeding forestland transfer. A remarkable finding was that forestland transactions occurred with a statistically significant factor equalization effect, which would be helpful to adjust the mismatched labor–land ratio and improve the land-use efficiency.

  16. Essays in Education and Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrington, Christopher M.

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on education and macroeconomics. The first chapter analyzes whether public education financing systems can account for large differences among developed countries in earnings inequality and intergenerational earnings persistence. I first document facts about public education in the U.S. and Norway, which…

  17. The macroeconomic consequences of downsizing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, H.L.F.; van Schaik, A.B.T.M.

    2002-01-01

    The recession in the 1980s followed by the worldwide decrease in transportation and communication costs has triggered a process of downsizing. The macroeconomic consequences of this process are only weakly understood. The model developed in this paper associates downsizing with trade between

  18. Engendering macroeconomic policies | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-28

    Jan 28, 2011 ... But conventional thinking is being challenged. ... In macroeconomics, there is an idealized notion of a “rational economic human being” — a “rational economic man,” actually. ... We promote pro-poor fiscal policy as well as gender-sensitive ... efforts to learn, to earn, and to take part in local decision-making.

  19. FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI PDB INDONESIA DENGAN PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN 2SLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NI MADE SRI KUSUMAWARDHANI

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic growth is indicated by an increase in the value of Gross Domestic Product (GDP. The size of GDP is influenced by various factors, including the Household Consumption, Investment, Government Spending, and Net Exports. One of the components that contribute to determine the amount of GDP is investment. According to the concept of macroeconomics, investment is also influenced by the GDP, tax revenue, and Currency. The reciprocal relationship between GDP and the investment is called a simultaneous relationship, therefore this study uses simultaneous equation Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS. 2SLS is one of the statistical methods used to replace the OLS method that can not be used to estimate an equation in a system of simultaneous equations. After analysis, the result shows the variables that influence the investment equation are GDP, tax, and revenue.

  20. A Chess-Like Game for Teaching Engineering Students to Solve Large System of Simultaneous Linear Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Duc T.; Mohammed, Ahmed Ali; Kadiam, Subhash

    2010-01-01

    Solving large (and sparse) system of simultaneous linear equations has been (and continues to be) a major challenging problem for many real-world engineering/science applications [1-2]. For many practical/large-scale problems, the sparse, Symmetrical and Positive Definite (SPD) system of linear equations can be conveniently represented in matrix notation as [A] {x} = {b} , where the square coefficient matrix [A] and the Right-Hand-Side (RHS) vector {b} are known. The unknown solution vector {x} can be efficiently solved by the following step-by-step procedures [1-2]: Reordering phase, Matrix Factorization phase, Forward solution phase, and Backward solution phase. In this research work, a Game-Based Learning (GBL) approach has been developed to help engineering students to understand crucial details about matrix reordering and factorization phases. A "chess-like" game has been developed and can be played by either a single player, or two players. Through this "chess-like" open-ended game, the players/learners will not only understand the key concepts involved in reordering algorithms (based on existing algorithms), but also have the opportunities to "discover new algorithms" which are better than existing algorithms. Implementing the proposed "chess-like" game for matrix reordering and factorization phases can be enhanced by FLASH [3] computer environments, where computer simulation with animated human voice, sound effects, visual/graphical/colorful displays of matrix tables, score (or monetary) awards for the best game players, etc. can all be exploited. Preliminary demonstrations of the developed GBL approach can be viewed by anyone who has access to the internet web-site [4]!

  1. The simultaneous Diophantine equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muriefah, Fadwa S.; Al-Rashed, A.

    2006-01-01

    The three numbers 1, 5 and 442 have the property that the product of any two numbers decreased by 1 is a prefect square. In this paper it is proved that there is no other positive integer which shares this property with 1, 5 and 442. Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 11D09, 11D25, Secondary 11B37, 11J68, 11J86, 11Y50. (author)

  2. Macroeconomic models and energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Douillard, Pierre; Le Hir, Boris; Epaulard, Anne

    2016-02-01

    As a new policy for energy transition has just been adopted, several questions emerge about the best way to reduce CO 2 emissions, about policies which enable this reduction, and about their costs and opportunities. This note discusses the contribution macro-economic models may have in this respect, notably in the definition of policies which trigger behaviour changes, and those which support energy transition. The authors first discuss the stakes of the assessment of energy transition, and then describe macro-economic models which can be used for such an assessment, give and comment some results of simulations performed for France by using four of these models (Mesange, Numesis, ThreeME, and Imaclim-R France). The authors finally draw lessons about the way to use these models and to interpret their results within the frame of energy transition

  3. Macroeconomic conditions and opioid abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Alex; Ruhm, Christopher J; Simon, Kosali

    2017-12-01

    We examine how deaths and emergency department (ED) visits related to use of opioid analgesics (opioids) and other drugs vary with macroeconomic conditions. As the county unemployment rate increases by one percentage point, the opioid death rate per 100,000 rises by 0.19 (3.6%) and the opioid overdose ED visit rate per 100,000 increases by 0.95 (7.0%). Macroeconomic shocks also increase the overall drug death rate, but this increase is driven by rising opioid deaths. Our findings hold when performing a state-level analysis, rather than county-level; are primarily driven by adverse events among whites; and are stable across time periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Macroeconomic Policies and Agent Heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    GOTTLIEB, Charles

    2012-01-01

    Defence date: 24 February 2012 Examining Board: Giancarlo Corsetti, Arpad Abraham, Juan Carlos Conesa, Jonathan Heathcote. This thesis contributes to the understanding of macroeconomic policies’ impact on the distribution of wealth. It belongs to the strand of literature that departs from the representative agent assumption and perceives agent heterogeneity and the induced disparities in wealth accumulation, as an important dimension of economic policy-making. Within such economic envir...

  5. Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

    OpenAIRE

    Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ronald; Grasl, Tobias

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term\\ud trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure,\\ud incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects.\\ud We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and\\ud growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current\\ud...

  6. Macroeconomic Conditions, Health and Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher J. Ruhm

    2004-01-01

    Although health is conventionally believed to deteriorate during macroeconomic downturns, the empirical evidence supporting this view is quite weak and comes from studies containing methodological shortcomings that are difficult to remedy. Recent research that better controls for many sources of omitted variables bias instead suggests that mortality decreases and physical health improves when the economy temporarily weakens. This partially reflects reductions in external sources of death, suc...

  7. Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Loayza, Norman V.; Rancière, Romain; Servén, Luis; Ventura, Jaume

    2007-01-01

    Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction Norman V. Loayza, Romain Ranciere, Luis Serven, ` and Jaume Ventura Macroeconomic volatility, both a source and a reflection of underdevelopment, is a fundamental concern for developing countries. This article provides a brief overview of the recent literature on macroeconomic volatility in developing countries, highlighting its causes, consequences, and possible remedies. to reduce domestic policy-induced macroecon...

  8. Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Flavin, Thomas; Wickens, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    We develop a tactical asset allocation strategy that incorporates the effects of macroeconomic variables. The joint distribution of financial asset returns and the macroeconomic variables is modelled using a VAR with a multivariate GARCH (M-GARCH) error structure. As a result, the portfolio frontier is time varying and subject to contagion from the macroeconomic variable. Optimal asset allocation requires that this be taken into account. We illustrate how to do this using three ri...

  9. [Macroeconomic costs of eye diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirneiß, C; Kampik, A; Neubauer, A S

    2014-05-01

    Eye diseases that are relevant regarding their macroeconomic costs and their impact on society include cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of direct and indirect costs for major eye disease categories for Germany, based on existing literature and data sources. A semi-structured literature search was performed in the databases Medline and Embase and in the search machine Google for relevant original papers and reviews on costs of eye diseases with relevance for or transferability to Germany (last research date October 2013). In addition, manual searching was performed in important national databases and information sources, such as the Federal Office of Statistics and scientific societies. The direct costs for these diseases add up to approximately 2.6 billion Euros yearly for the Federal Republic of Germany, including out of the pocket payments from patients but excluding optical aids (e.g. glasses). In addition to those direct costs there are also indirect costs which are caused e.g. by loss of employment or productivity or by a reduction in health-related quality of life. These indirect costs can only be roughly estimated. Including the indirect costs for the eye diseases investigated, a total yearly macroeconomic cost ranging between 4 and 12 billion Euros is estimated for Germany. The costs for the eye diseases cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors have a macroeconomic relevant dimension. Based on the predicted demographic changes with an ageing society an increase of the prevalence and thus also an increase of costs for eye diseases is expected in the future.

  10. Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilke, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision-making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual-level statistical analysis...... to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual-level...

  11. The macroeconomics of demographic unemployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlberg, M

    1990-02-01

    "What are the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in labour supply? In the short run, unemployment occurs, due to both lack of aggregate demand and capital shortage. Demand-side policy and money wage restraint prove to be ineffective in this situation, owing to capital shortage. On the other hand, a reduction in working hours without wage compensation as well as a policy mix of both demand-side policy and investment policy turn out to be effective. The reduction in working hours lowers individual income and raises individual leisure, as compared to the policy mix." (SUMMARY IN GER) excerpt

  12. Macroeconomics in an open economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, R N

    1986-09-12

    The customary treatment of national economies as closed and self-contained must be substantially modified to allow for those economies that typically trade goods, services, and securities with other countries in increasing volume. Open economy macroeconomics is essential to understanding the major events of the U.S. economy over the past half dozen years. Both the sharp rise in the dollar and the unprecedentedly large U.S. trade deficit are linked to the U.S. budget deficit, as is the drop in the rate of inflation.

  13. Identification of Macroeconomic Factors in Large Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Dewachter, Hans; Houssa, Romain

    standard practices in the SVAR literature. Estimators based on the EM algorithm are developped. We apply this framework to a large panel of US monthly macroeconomic series. In particular, we identify nine macroeconomic factors and discuss the economic impact of monetary policy stocks. The results...

  14. What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araujo, Pedro; O'Sullivan, Roisin; Simpson, Nicole B.

    2013-01-01

    A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach…

  15. Some Thoughts on Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boskin, Michael J.

    1986-01-01

    This article shares the author's personal views about current macroeconomic policy and what ought to be taught at senior high school or freshman college levels. Concludes that Keynesian economics is not dead, but that modern eclectic macroeconomics must focus on basic data about the economy and what is at stake in making decisions based on…

  16. Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yee Peng Chow

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004–2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy, it is not spared from various sources of macroeconomic volatility through the decades. The reported data cover 15 types of macroeconomic data series, representing three broad categories of indicators that can be used to proxy macroeconomic volatility. They are indicators that account for macroeconomic volatility (i.e. volatility as a macroeconomic outcome, domestic sources of macroeconomic volatility and external sources of macroeconomic volatility. In particular, the selected countries are Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, which are regarded as developing countries, while Singapore, Japan and Australia are developed countries. Despite the differences in level of economic development, these countries were affected by similar sources of macroeconomic volatility such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. These countries were also affected by other similar external turbulence arising from factors such as the global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and volatile commodity prices. Nonetheless, there were also sources of macroeconomic volatility which were peculiar to certain countries only. These were generally domestic sources of volatility such as political instability (for Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, natural disasters and anomalous weather conditions (for Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Australia and over-dependence on the electronic sector (for Singapore. Keywords

  17. Planting strategies of maize farmers in Kenya: a simultaneous equations analysis in the presence of discrete dependent variables

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hassan, RM

    1996-11-01

    Full Text Available procedures are used to handle the simultaneity and self-selectivity problems. Results showed that population pressure and agroclimatic diversity are important determinants of crop intensification and planting regimes among maize farmers and further supported...

  18. The macroeconomics of vitreoretinal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, George J; Brown, Melissa M; Brown, Gary C

    2005-06-01

    The purpose of this review is to examine the macroeconomics of vitreoretinal diseases. Approximately 6% of the Medicare Part B expenditure was spent on ocular diseases and 0.3% on vitreoretinal interventions. Among the 17,674 practicing ophthalmologists, 1849 (10.5%) designated themselves as specializing in the treatment of vitreoretinal diseases. Ophthalmologists receive 38% of their payments from Medicare; 13% of their total income were capitated. Age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy, two conditions commonly treated by vitreoretinal specialists, are projected to affect more than 10 million people in 2020. Vitreoretinal interventions account for only a small portion of the total health care expenditure. The rising demand from the aging population and health care costs will continue to put pressure on all physicians and society. The changes in the sources of payment and managed care will directly affect the economics of a physician's practice.

  19. On the simultaneous Pell equations x 2 - (4m 2 - 1)y 2 = y 2 - pz 2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Let m be a positive integer, and let p be an odd prime. By using certain properties of Pell and quartic diophantine equations with some elementary number theory methods, we prove that the system of equations x2 - (4m2 - 1)y2 = 1 and y2 - pz2 = 1 has positive integer solutions (x, y, z) if and only if p ≡ 7(mod 8) and m = 1/4 ...

  20. Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Yee Peng; Muhammad, Junaina; Amin Noordin, Bany Ariffin; Cheng, Fan Fah

    2018-02-01

    This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004-2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy, it is not spared from various sources of macroeconomic volatility through the decades. The reported data cover 15 types of macroeconomic data series, representing three broad categories of indicators that can be used to proxy macroeconomic volatility. They are indicators that account for macroeconomic volatility (i.e. volatility as a macroeconomic outcome), domestic sources of macroeconomic volatility and external sources of macroeconomic volatility. In particular, the selected countries are Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, which are regarded as developing countries, while Singapore, Japan and Australia are developed countries. Despite the differences in level of economic development, these countries were affected by similar sources of macroeconomic volatility such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. These countries were also affected by other similar external turbulence arising from factors such as the global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and volatile commodity prices. Nonetheless, there were also sources of macroeconomic volatility which were peculiar to certain countries only. These were generally domestic sources of volatility such as political instability (for Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines), natural disasters and anomalous weather conditions (for Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Australia) and over-dependence on the electronic sector (for Singapore).

  1. Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region

    OpenAIRE

    Chow, Yee Peng; Muhammad, Junaina; Amin Noordin, Bany Ariffin; Cheng, Fan Fah

    2017-01-01

    This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004–2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy,...

  2. Review of Selected Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Building ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... This study therefore investigates the impact of macro-economic indicators on the prices of ... factors, Construction projects, Procurement, prices, Building Materials, Delivery ...

  3. Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, Tiziana; Bao, Te; Hommes, Cars; Massaro, Domenico; Duffy, John

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  4. Modern Paradigm in Macroeconomic Monetary Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Lipară

    2016-01-01

    We appreciated that in order to achieve macroeconomic stability a mix between monetary andfiscal policies is needed, fixed rules should be applied in interdependence with discretionarygovernment measures and acting upon incomes is the best way to fight against inflation.

  5. Deregulation and Macroeconomic Drivers Of Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Deregulation and Macroeconomic Drivers Of Foreign Direct Investment In Nigerian Agriculture (1970 -2009): An Econometric Analysis. ... The study showed that foreign exchange and the economic deregulation policy of Nigerian government ...

  6. Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Residential Property ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sultan

    exerted by macroeconomic factors on residential property returns in Abuja. The backward .... explanatory power and positive influence of employment and ...... Project. Management In Property Development: the Nigeria experience. Ibadan:.

  7. Macroeconomic model of national economy development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Naval

    1996-03-01

    Full Text Available Some approaches to modeling of national economy development are considered. Methods and models for determination of forecasting values of macroeconomic parameters are proposed at availability or absence of external financing.

  8. The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model

    OpenAIRE

    Flint Brayton; Eileen Mauskopf; David L. Reifschneider; Peter A. Tinsley; John Williams

    1997-01-01

    In the past year, the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System began using a new macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy referred to as the FRB/US model. This system of mathematical equations, describing interactions among economic measures such as inflation, interest rates, and gross domestic product, is one of the tools used in economic forecasting and the analysis of macroeconomic policy issues at the Board. The FRB/US model replaces the MPS model, which, with periodic...

  9. The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Implications for Teaching Intermediate Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froyen, Richard T.

    1996-01-01

    Traces the development of macroeconomic theory from John Maynard Keynes to modern endogenous growth theory. Maintains that a combination of interest in growth theory and related policy questions will play a prominent role in macroeconomics in the future. Recommends narrowing the gap between graduate school and undergraduate economics instruction.…

  10. Macroeconomic Assessment of Voltage Sags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinan Küfeoğlu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The electric power sector has changed dramatically since the 1980s. Electricity customers are now demanding uninterrupted and high quality service from both utilities and authorities. By becoming more and more dependent on the voltage sensitive electronic equipment, the industry sector is the one which is affected the most by voltage disturbances. Voltage sags are one of the most crucial problems for these customers. The utilities, on the other hand, conduct cost-benefit analyses before going through new investment projects. At this point, understanding the costs of voltage sags become imperative for planning purposes. The characteristics of electric power consumption and hence the susceptibility against voltage sags differ considerably among different industry subsectors. Therefore, a model that will address the estimation of worth of electric power reliability for a large number of customer groups is necessary. This paper introduces a macroeconomic model to calculate Customer Voltage Sag Costs (CVSCs for the industry sector customers. The proposed model makes use of analytical data such as value added, annual energy consumption, working hours, and average outage durations and provides a straightforward, credible, and easy to follow methodology for the estimation of CVSCs.

  11. Managing Macroeconomic Risks by Using Statistical Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merkaš Zvonko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the possibilities of using statistical simulation in the macroeconomic risks measurement. At the level of the whole world, macroeconomic risks are, due to the excessive imbalance, significantly increased. Using analytical statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation, the authors interpret the collected data sets, compare and analyze them in order to mitigate potential risks. The empirical part of the study is a qualitative case study that uses statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation for managing macroeconomic risks, which is the central theme of this work. Application of statistical simulation is necessary because the system, for which it is necessary to specify the model, is too complex for an analytical approach. The objective of the paper is to point out the previous need for consideration of significant macroeconomic risks, particularly in terms of the number of the unemployed in the society, the movement of gross domestic product and the country’s credit rating, and the use of data previously processed by statistical methods, through statistical simulation, to analyze the existing model of managing the macroeconomic risks and suggest elements for a management model development that will allow, with the lowest possible probability and consequences, the emergence of the recent macroeconomic risks. The stochastic characteristics of the system, defined by random variables as input values defined by probability distributions, require the performance of a large number of iterations on which to record the output of the model and calculate the mathematical expectations. The paper expounds the basic procedures and techniques of discrete statistical simulation applied to systems that can be characterized by a number of events which represent a set of circumstances that have caused a change in the system’s state and the possibility of its application in the field of assessment of macroeconomic risks. The method has no

  12. Macroeconomic policies for development in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Ffrench-Davis

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the link between the macroeconomic environment and development (economic growth with equity. The aim of the analysis is to compare two alternative approaches to interpreting and implementing macroeconomics. The first to come under analysis is the financialist or neoliberal approach, which places the emphasis on macroeconomic balance, giving particular weight to the two cornerstones of low inflation and control of the fiscal budget, together with general openness of the capital account. The second approach –which we will call the “alternative”– is the productivist approach, which places the emphasis on a comprehensive group of macroeconomic balances: or rather, in addition to low inflation and fiscal responsibility, it involves a real balanced economy; that is to say, an aggregate demand that is consistent with the economy’s productive capacity and with a sustainable external balance. This second approach involves, firstly, a high coefficient of the use of productive factors (capital and work while, secondly, it attempts to prevent vulnerability in front of costly crises of external origin. Finally, the author argues that the broadest macroeconomic objectives demand more and better political instruments in the context of the globalisation of financial volatility.

  13. Macro-economic Impact Study for Bio-based Malaysia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijl, van H.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Dijk, van M.; Powell, J.P.; Tabeau, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    This Macro-economic Impact Study (MES) provides quantitative insights into the macro-economic effects of introducing green, palmbased alternatives for electricity, fuels, chemicals and materials industries in Malaysia between now and 2030.

  14. Environmental macroeconomics : Environmental policy, business cycles, and directed technical change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, Carolyn; Heutel, Garth

    Environmental economics has traditionally fallen in the domain of microeconomics, but approaches from macroeconomics have recently been applied to studying environmental policy. We focus on two macroeconomic tools and their application to environmental economics. First, real-business-cycle models

  15. PHENOMENA AND BASIC MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR MEASUREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAULINA CATANA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Macroeconomics is a separate discipline of the Economy that studies and analyzes the behaviour of economic aggregates and significant average, such as price level, national income, national income potential, the gap GDP, employment and unemployment of labour, investment and export of the whole economy. We can accuse to Macroeconomics that it deals also with the average price of all goods and services, not the prices of certain products. These aggregates result from economic behaviour of certain groups (governments, companies, consumers in the course of their activities on different markets. But why does it need Macroeconomics? Experts say that we need this separate discipline because there are certain forces that affect the broader economy globally, which can not be understood only by analyzing individual economic phenomena, individual products or markets.

  16. Relationship between macroeconomic aggregates and bank performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitrović Ranka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is relations between some macroeconomic aggregates and performance of banks. This paper show analysis of trends in gross domestic product, exchange rates, interest rates, inflation load, developments in the balance of payments. On the business side, performance is achieved insight into the liquidity, capital adequacy, and the amount of non-performable loans. The aim of the research is to refute or confirm the interconnectedness of movement values of macroeconomic aggregates and bank performance. The analysis confirmed the association of two set variables. The negative value movements of macroeconomic aggregates directly or indirectly have an impact on the quality of performance of the banking sector. Therefore, it is necessary to define an adequate strategy of the economy, would not it safer to carry out the process of adapting to new developments in the market, such as the global financial crisis, the rise in unproductive enterprises, distrust customers etc.

  17. Macroeconomic policy, growth, and biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawn, Philip

    2008-12-01

    To successfully achieve biodiversity conservation, the amount of ecosystem structure available for economic production must be determined by, and subject to, conservation needs. As such, the scale of economic systems must remain within the limits imposed by the need to preserve critical ecosystems and the regenerative and waste assimilative capacities of the ecosphere. These limits are determined by biophysical criteria, yet macroeconomics involves the use of economic instruments designed to meet economic criteria that have no capacity to achieve biophysically based targets. Macroeconomic policy cannot, therefore, directly solve the biodiversity erosion crisis. Nevertheless, good macroeconomic policy is still important given that bad macroeconomy policy is likely to reduce human well-being and increase the likelihood of social upheaval that could undermine conservation efforts.

  18. Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Developing Countries: Approaches and Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Anuradha Seth; Amr Ragab

    2012-01-01

    Economic vulnerability is approached from micro- and macroeconomic perspectives. While the microeconomic perspective is concerned with the impact of shocks on the well-being of individual households, the macroeconomic perspective focuses on the impact of these shocks on economic growth. This paper reviews the literature on macroeconomic vulnerability and finds that there is no single approach to understanding macroeconomic vulnerability in the context of financial and economic crises in devel...

  19. Reconstructing Macroeconomics Based on Statistical Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Masanao; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

    We believe that time has come to integrate the new approach based on statistical physics or econophysics into macroeconomics. Toward this goal, there must be more dialogues between physicists and economists. In this paper, we argue that there is no reason why the methods of statistical physics so successful in many fields of natural sciences cannot be usefully applied to macroeconomics that is meant to analyze the macroeconomy comprising a large number of economic agents. It is, in fact, weird to regard the macroeconomy as a homothetic enlargement of the representative micro agent. We trust the bright future of the new approach to macroeconomies based on statistical physics.

  20. Macroeconomic narratives in a world of crises

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urhammer, Emil; Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    Since the financial crisis in 2008, a series of publications on macroeconomic responses to the compound crises of the economy and the environment have emerged. Under labels such as green new deal, green growth and the great transition, attempts at offering coherent responses to the crises have been...... discourse theory and narrative analysis and investigates discourses by studying the narratives they produce. The study thus contributes to the long line of analyses on discourses on sustainable economy: empirically, by investigating and analysing a number of macroeconomic proposals for solving the system...

  1. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Mello da Silva

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI, industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa. The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988 causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988 long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  2. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  3. The macroeconomics of targeting: the case of an enduring epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Clive; Gersbach, Hans

    2009-01-01

    What is the right balance among policy interventions in order to ensure economic growth over the long run when an epidemic causes heavy mortality among young adults? We argue that, in general, policies to combat the disease and promote education must be concentrated, in certain ways, at first on some subgroups of society. This concentration involves what we term the macroeconomics of targeting. The central comparison is then between programs under which supported families enjoy the benefits of spending on health and education simultaneously (DT), and those under which the benefits in these two domains are sequenced (ST). When levels of human capital are uniformly low at the outbreak, DT is superior to ST if the mortality rate exceeds some threshold value. Outside aid makes DT more attractive; but DT restricts support to fewer families initially and so increases inequality. A summary account of the empirical evidence is followed by an application of the framework to South Africa.

  4. Macroeconomics and Human Development, by Deepak Nayyar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiana Ioana ŞERBĂNEL

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Microeconomics and Human Development pursue to tackle both negative and positive effects of macroeconomics on human development and vice-versa through a series of external and internal factors. The book consists in a series of articles published in a prestigious publication: Journal of Human Development and Capabilities. The authors have a perennial echo in the economic field.

  5. Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Jon Devin

    2012-01-01

    The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

  6. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

  7. Essays on financial structure and macroeconomic performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, D.

    2006-01-01

    In addressing the matter, two essays study the effects of the debt vs. equity dimension of the financial structure on international consumption smoothing and macroeconomic volatility (in particular, economic downturns). Another essay evaluates the role of informal financial institution by looking

  8. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  9. Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Bennett T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

  10. The Readability of Principles of Macroeconomics Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinkler, Sarah; Woods, James

    2013-01-01

    The authors evaluated principles of macroeconomics textbooks for readability using Coh-Metrix, a computational linguistics tool. Additionally, they conducted an experiment on Amazon's Mechanical Turk Web site in which participants ranked the readability of text samples. There was a wide range of scores on readability indexes both among…

  11. Low carbon national strategy. A macro-economical assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baiz, Adam; Monnoyer-Smith, Laurence; Callonnec, Gael

    2016-11-01

    This publication briefly reports the use of the Three-ME model (Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy) to assess the combined effect of the several instruments mobilised for the transition towards a low carbon economy within the French National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC). It first presents the Three-ME model which has been developed since 2008 by the OFCE and the Ademe, is a neo-Keynesian and hybrid model, and which comprises 14.000 equations and 70.000 parameters dealing with prices, interest rates, investments, salaries, foreign trade, State policy, a production function, and a consumption function. Some characteristics of the SNBC scenario are indicated, as well as those of a reference trend-based scenario. Obtained results are then briefly commented in terms of positive ecological and economic impacts of a carbon tax and of sector-based measures defined within the SNBC

  12. Macroeconomic Effects of Export Demand in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolaji Adesola Adesoye

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the macroeconomic effects of aggregate export demand in Nigeria using annual time series data between 1970 and 2013. The paper made use of the ordinary least square method to analyse the long-run relationship for the period under study. The empirical results confirm that there exists a unique and significant long-run equilibrium relationship among export volume, world income, crude oil price, domestic output, exchange rate and cost of doing business. The estimated results show that domestic income has the highest elasticity, followed by world’s output and cost of doing business, which all report positive relations. Other macroeconomic factors reported negative relationship with aggregate export volume. Thus, an important policy implication of our findings is that stabilizing Nigeria’s export earnings potential by counteracting the external factors that influence adversely the Nigerian exports such as crude oil price and cost of doing business.

  13. Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes "new developmentalism" - a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries.

  14. A nonlinear optimal control approach to stabilization of a macroeconomic development model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Sarno, D.

    2017-11-01

    A nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control approach is proposed for the problem of stabilization of the dynamics of a macroeconomic development model that is known as the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous product cycles. The dynamics of the macroeconomic development model is divided in two parts. The first one describes economic activities in a developed country and the second part describes variation of economic activities in a country under development which tries to modify its production so as to serve the needs of the developed country. The article shows that through control of the macroeconomic model of the developed country, one can finally control the dynamics of the economy in the country under development. The control method through which this is achieved is the nonlinear H-infinity control. The macroeconomic model for the country under development undergoes approximate linearization round a temporary operating point. This is defined at each time instant by the present value of the system's state vector and the last value of the control input vector that was exerted on it. The linearization is based on Taylor series expansion and the computation of the associated Jacobian matrices. For the linearized model an H-infinity feedback controller is computed. The controller's gain is calculated by solving an algebraic Riccati equation at each iteration of the control method. The asymptotic stability of the control approach is proven through Lyapunov analysis. This assures that the state variables of the macroeconomic model of the country under development will finally converge to the designated reference values.

  15. Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher D Carroll

    2002-01-01

    Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional foreca...

  16. Macroeconomics correlations focused on foreign direct investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodora ALECU

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This article is meant to reveal the way in which the theory of interconnections between systems and sub-systems partici-pating to the creation of economic value, which have been described by professor Paul Bran in his book Economics of Value is outlined in practice and how its analysis may help us to control the effects of the policies applied at the level of each macroeconomic sub-system.

  17. A macroeconomic framework for quantifying systemic risk

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind

    2012-01-01

    Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model a...

  18. Three essays in agent-based macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Canzian, Giulia

    2009-01-01

    The dissertation is aimed at offering an insight into the agent-based methodology and its possible application to the macroeconomic analysis. Relying on this methodology, I deal with three different issues concerning heterogeneity of economic agents, bounded rationality and interaction. Specifically, the first chapter is devoted to describe the distinctive characteristics of agent-based economics and its advantages-disadvantages. In the second chapter I propose a credit market framework c...

  19. Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Returns in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Phan, Van Hang

    2008-01-01

    Capital market development, especially the appearance of Vietnamese equity market recently has a strategic importance in the economic growth and structural reform process of Vietnam (Chun et al, 2003). This dissertation focuses on the impacts of macroeconomic forces on stock market returns in Vietnamese stock market which has not been investigated in detail before, and thereby to contribute further literature on this new emerging stock market. Specifically, the research will intensively inves...

  20. PRIORITIZING ECONOMIC GROWTH: ENHANCING MACROECONOMIC POLICY CHOICE

    OpenAIRE

    Colin I. BRADFORD, Jr.

    2005-01-01

    This paper spells out a logic for increasing macroeconomic policy space in order to prioritize the goals of growth, employment creation and poverty reduction. First, there is the need to create additional policy instruments so that a greater number of policy goals can be addressed. Frequently, real economy goals get partly crowded out by financial objectives because there are too few instruments for too many goals. Second, the calibrated use of policy tools by degrees of commitment, deploymen...

  1. Macroeconomic model of national economy development (extended

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Diaconova

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available The macroeconomic model offered in this paper describes complex functioning of national economy and can be used for forecasting of possible directions of its development depending on various economic policies. It is the extension of [2] and adaptation of [3]. With the purpose of determination of state policies influence in the field of taxes and exchange rate national economy is considered within the framework of three sectors: government, private and external world.

  2. Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Markus K. Brunnermeier; Thomas M. Eisenbach; Yuliy Sannikov

    2012-01-01

    This article surveys the macroeconomic implications of financial frictions. Financial frictions lead to persistence and when combined with illiquidity to non-linear amplification effects. Risk is endogenous and liquidity spirals cause financial instability. Increasing margins further restrict leverage and exacerbate downturns. A demand for liquid assets and a role for money emerges. The market outcome is generically not even constrained efficient and the issuance of government debt can lead t...

  3. The effect of macroeconomic variables on suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berk, Michael; Dodd, Seetal; Henry, Margaret

    2006-02-01

    There are a large number of factors mediating suicide. Many studies have searched for a direct causal relationship between economic hardship and suicide, however, findings have been varied. Suicide data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period between January 1968 and August 2002. These were correlated with a suite of macroeconomic data including housing loan interest rates, unemployment rates, days lost to industrial disputes, Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Sentiment Index. A total of 51845 males and 16327 females committed suicide between these dates. There were significant associations between suicide rates and eleven macroeconomic indicators for both genders in at least one age range. Data was divided into male and female and five age ranges and pooled ages. Analyses were conducted on these 132 datasets resulting in 80 significant findings. The data was generally stronger for indices measuring economic performance than indices measuring consumers' perceptions of the state of the economy. A striking difference between male and female trends was seen. Generally, male suicide rates increased with markers of economic adversity, while the opposite pattern was seen in females. There were significantly different patterns in age-stratified data, with for example higher housing loan interest rates having a positive association with suicide in younger people and a negative association in older age groups. Macroeconomic trends are significantly associated with suicide. The patterns in males and females are very different, and there are further substantial age-related differences.

  4. Complementary system perspectives in ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2016-01-01

    Globally, societies are facing a number of interrelated environmental, economic and social crises. This paper is intended to contribute to the development of an ecological macroeconomics that addresses these multiple crises in combination. Insights from different research communities will be incl......Globally, societies are facing a number of interrelated environmental, economic and social crises. This paper is intended to contribute to the development of an ecological macroeconomics that addresses these multiple crises in combination. Insights from different research communities...... will be included in this effort. Taking an ecological economic understanding of sustainability as the point of departure, and inspired by systems thinking, it is discussed which economic sub-systems should be in focus for sustainability transitions, and whether relevant guides for sustainability can be formulated...... for these systems. In particular, the focus is on systems that are decisive for resource consumption and pollution although their influence on these is indirect. A simple typology of sub-systems is suggested and applied in relation to an example that highlights the importance of the interplay between macroeconomic...

  5. Capital mobility and macroeconomic volatility: evidence from Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Anastasios, Pappas

    2010-01-01

    This paper focuses on the impact of full capital account liberalization on macroeconomic volatility in Greece. According to the standard neoclassical model, such liberalization is to be desired because, among other advantages, it may reduce macroeconomic volatility. The link between macroeconomic volatility and capital account openness in the Greek economy is investigated by applying a simple three-month rolling standard deviation of real GDP growth and real final (total) consumption growth c...

  6. Macroeconomic predictions – Three essays on analysts' forecast quality

    OpenAIRE

    Orbe, Sebastian

    2013-01-01

    Macroeconomic expectation data are of great interest to different agents due to their importance as central input factors in various applications. To name but a few, politicians, capital market participants, as well as academics, incorporate these forecast data into their decision processes. Consequently, a sound understanding of the quality properties of macroeconomic forecast data, their quality determinants, as well as potential ways to improve macroeconomic predictions is desirable. ...

  7. Understanding Financial Fluctuations and Their Relation to Macroeconomic Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Nora Guarata; Carolina Pagliacci

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines how financial fluctuations and macroeconomic stability interact in the case of Venezuela, acknowledging that financial conditions deteriorating the macroeconomic environment can arise with both good and bad macroeconomic performance. An empirical methodology is provided that constructs two indexes, which are fully interpretable and are constructed with a minimum set of assumptions applied to a large number of financial time series. Structural interpretation of indexes is p...

  8. A kinetic approach to some quasi-linear laws of macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gligor, M.; Ignat, M.

    2002-11-01

    Some previous works have presented the data on wealth and income distributions in developed countries and have found that the great majority of population is described by an exponential distribution, which results in idea that the kinetic approach could be adequate to describe this empirical evidence. The aim of our paper is to extend this framework by developing a systematic kinetic approach of the socio-economic systems and to explain how linear laws, modelling correlations between macroeconomic variables, may arise in this context. Firstly we construct the Boltzmann kinetic equation for an idealised system composed by many individuals (workers, officers, business men, etc.), each of them getting a certain income and spending money for their needs. To each individual a certain time variable amount of money is associated this meaning him/her phase space coordinate. In this way the exponential distribution of money in a closed economy is explicitly found. The extension of this result, including states near the equilibrium, give us the possibility to take into account the regular increase of the total amount of money, according to the modern economic theories. The Kubo-Green-Onsager linear response theory leads us to a set of linear equations between some macroeconomic variables. Finally, the validity of such laws is discussed in relation with the time reversal symmetry and is tested empirically using some macroeconomic time series.

  9. MACROECONOMIC KALECKI’S MODEL IN VIEW OF AN INVESTMENT TEMPORARY LAG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduard A. Gevorkyan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The dependence of the gross domestic product on time ( Y ( t in macroeconomic Kalecki’s model in view of an investment temporary lag in the case of periodic dependence of the consumption function on time is investigated. As a result of solutions of linear ordinary differential equation and differential equation with lagging argument an analytical expressions for the Y ( t is received. Some aspects of influence of a temporary lag on character of variation of the function Y ( t are shown.

  10. Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wei

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Using annual data from 1997–2014 of 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, subdividing trended and cyclical volatility of macroeconomics and inflation, considering different indicators of financial development and financial structure, this paper investigated the impact of financial development and financial structure on macroeconomic volatility. The empirical results found that (1 the trended and cyclical volatility of the previous macroeconomic period had a significantly positive impact on that of the current period, and the impact of trended volatility was greater than that of cyclical volatility; (2 financial development had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility through inflation cyclical volatility, but inflation trended volatility would amplify macroeconomic volatility; financial markets have no significant effect on macroeconomic volatility; financial structure measured with the ratio of stock market turnover and the efficiency of the financial development had a significant positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility; and (3 inflation trended volatility had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility and trended volatility, while inflation cyclical volatility had a significantly positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility.

  11. Entropy, recycling and macroeconomics of water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2014-05-01

    We propose a macroeconomic model for water quantity and quality supply multipliers derived by water recycling (Karakatsanis et al. 2013). Macroeconomic models that incorporate natural resource conservation have become increasingly important (European Commission et al. 2012). In addition, as an estimated 80% of globally used freshwater is not reused (United Nations 2012), under increasing population trends, water recycling becomes a solution of high priority. Recycling of water resources creates two major conservation effects: (1) conservation of water in reservoirs and aquifers and (2) conservation of ecosystem carrying capacity due to wastewater flux reduction. Statistical distribution properties of the recycling efficiencies -on both water quantity and quality- for each sector are of vital economic importance. Uncertainty and complexity of water reuse in sectors are statistically quantified by entropy. High entropy of recycling efficiency values signifies greater efficiency dispersion; which -in turn- may indicate the need for additional infrastructure for the statistical distribution's both shifting and concentration towards higher efficiencies that lead to higher supply multipliers. Keywords: Entropy, water recycling, water supply multipliers, conservation, recycling efficiencies, macroeconomics References 1. European Commission (EC), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), United Nations (UN) and World Bank (2012), System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework (White cover publication), United Nations Statistics Division 2. Karakatsanis, G., N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis and A. Efstratiades (2013), Entropy and reliability of water use via a statistical approach of scarcity, 5th EGU Leonardo Conference - Hydrofractals 2013 - STAHY '13, Kos Island, Greece, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences

  12. Macroeconomic susceptibility, inflation, and aggregate supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Raymond J.

    2017-03-01

    We unify aggregate-supply dynamics as a time-dependent susceptibility-mediated relationship between inflation and aggregate economic output. In addition to representing well various observations of inflation-output dynamics this parsimonious formalism provides a straightforward derivation of popular representations of aggregate-supply dynamics and a natural basis for economic-agent expectations as an element of inflation formation. Our formalism also illuminates questions of causality and time-correlation that challenge central banks for whom aggregate-supply dynamics is a key constraint in their goal of achieving macroeconomic stability.

  13. GREEK ECONOMIC CRISIS ON MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GĂBAN LUCIAN

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to examine briefly some elements of macroeconomic aspects that could explain - at least partly - a number of causes of the current economic crisis in Greece. Using data provided by competent bodies, is intended as a more accurate outlining the differences between Greece and the other countries of the European Union member show widespread Greek State as an outlier among the countries that make up the current "U.E. 28 ". The analysis is based on three indicators relevant to the case – unemployment, government debt and nonperforming loans.

  14. Macroeconomic Stabilization When the Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

    2015-01-01

    The authors modify the Dynamic Aggregate Demand-Dynamic Aggregate Supply model in Mankiw's widely used intermediate macroeconomics textbook to discuss monetary policy when the natural real interest rate is falling over time. Their results highlight a new role for the central bank's inflation target as a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. They…

  15. Macroeconomic pressures and their implications for business development in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuada, John

    2011-01-01

    The paper discusses the complex relationships between macroeconomic pressures, savings, investments and business development in Sub-Sahara African countries......The paper discusses the complex relationships between macroeconomic pressures, savings, investments and business development in Sub-Sahara African countries...

  16. Racial Diversity and Macroeconomic Productivity across US States and Cities

    OpenAIRE

    Sparber, Chad

    2007-01-01

    The United States is growing increasingly diverse, so it is important that economists understand the macroeconomic consequences of diversity within the US economy. International analyses often argue that heterogeneity reduces macroeconomic productivity by engendering corruption, political instability, and social turmoil. However, other studies claim that diversity improves creative decision making and augments productivity. This paper exploits differences in diversity across regions of the Un...

  17. Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kocenda, Evzen; Poghosyan, Tigran

    2009-01-01

    We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. We derive the observable macroeconomic factors-consumption and inflation-using the Stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange

  18. Private consumption-savings behavior and macroeconomic imbalances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Castro Campos, M.

    2016-01-01

    Between the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1991 and 2007 many of the existing macroeconomic theories were applied to support the claim that the euro area was an optimal currency union and to argue that increasing macroeconomic imbalances were a logical part of the financial integration process.

  19. Demand, credit and macroeconomic dynamics: A microsimulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijers, H.H.M.; Nomaler, Z.O.; Verspagen, B.

    2014-01-01

    We develop a microsimulation model for the macroeconomic business cycle. Our model is based on three main ideas: (i) we want to specify how macroeconomic coordination is achieved without a dominating influence of price mechanisms, (ii) we want to incorporate the stock-flow-consistent approach that

  20. Macroeconomic effects of petroleum supply disruptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, J.D.

    1983-01-01

    Seven of the eight US recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag of around 3/4 of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum. That this correlation is more than just a coincidence is supported by parametric and nonparametric statistical tests on a variety of US time series and sample periods. Moreover, both the institutional structure of the petroleum industry and the historical timing of key economic events indicate that the oil shocks represented largely exogenous shocks to the US economy. Thus, the data support the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the US recessions prior to 1972. By extension, energy price increases may account for much of post-OPEC macroeconomic performance. Illustrative calculations establish that adjustments of planned investment to historical changes in energy prices, together with Keynesian-multiplier effects associated with unintended inventory accumulation, were of sufficient magnitude to have exerted a major impact on macroeconomic activity throughout the postwar period.

  1. MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tutberidze

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many arguments that can be advanced to support the forecasting activities of business entities. The underlying argument in favor of forecasting is that managerial decisions are significantly dependent on proper evaluation of future trends as market conditions are constantly changing and require a detailed analysis of future dynamics. The article discusses the importance of using reasonable macro-econometric tool by suggesting the idea of conditional forecasting through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR modeling framework. Under this framework, a macroeconomic model for Georgian economy is constructed with the few variables believed to be shaping business environment. Based on the model, forecasts of macroeconomic variables are produced, and three types of scenarios are analyzed - a baseline and two alternative ones. The results of the study provide confirmatory evidence that suggested methodology is adequately addressing the research phenomenon and can be used widely by business entities in responding their strategic and operational planning challenges. Given this set-up, it is shown empirically that Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach provides reasonable forecasts for the variables of interest.

  2. Optimal Investment Control of Macroeconomic Systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Ke-jie; LIU Chuan-zhe

    2006-01-01

    Economic growth is always accompanied by economic fluctuation. The target of macroeconomic control is to keep a basic balance of economic growth, accelerate the optimization of economic structures and to lead a rapid, sustainable and healthy development of national economies, in order to propel society forward. In order to realize the above goal, investment control must be regarded as the most important policy for economic stability. Readjustment and control of investment includes not only control of aggregate investment, but also structural control which depends on economic-technology relationships between various industries of a national economy. On the basis of the theory of a generalized system, an optimal investment control model for government has been developed. In order to provide a scientific basis for government to formulate a macroeconomic control policy, the model investigates the balance of total supply and aggregate demand through an adjustment in investment decisions realizes a sustainable and stable growth of the national economy. The optimal investment decision function proposed by this study has a unique and specific expression, high regulating precision and computable characteristics.

  3. The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and ISE Industry Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Ozcan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE industry index is examined. Over the past years, numerous studies have analyzed these relationships and the different results obtained from these studies have motivated further research. The relationship between stock exchange index and macroeconomic variables has been well documented for the developed markets. However, there are few studies regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock exchange index for the developing markets. Thus, this paper seeks to address the question of whether macroeconomic variables have a significant relationship with ISE industry index using monthly data for the period from 2003 to 2010. The selected macroeconomic variables for the study include interest rates, consumer price index, money supply, exchange rate, gold prices, oil prices, current account deficit and export volume. The Johansen’s cointegration test is utilized to determine the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on ISE industry index. The result of the Johansen’s cointegration shows that macroeconomic variables exhibit a long run equilibrium relationship with the ISE industry index.

  4. Macroeconomic modelling of international carbon tax regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, S.; Mabey, N.; Smith, Clare

    1994-01-01

    An econometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition, for five of these countries, a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, representing the decline in energy intensity as a function of price and macroeconomic variables. This aims to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. It is shown that the endogenous technical change model does include an important element that is missed in the more conventional approach. However in the long run the magnitude of taxes required to stabilise or reduce emissions would be large, and it is suggested that other non-price policies will become more important. (Author)

  5. Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

    2003-01-01

    To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

  6. Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Ranaldo, Angelo

    2005-01-01

    We investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. Our results deliver insights into the dominating drivers of bond-stock comovements. We find that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact...... that an announcement occurs that influences the realized bond-stock correlation. The impact of macroeconomic announcements varies across the business cycle. Announcement effects are highly dependent on the sign of the realized bond-stock correlation which has recently gone from positive to negative. Macroeconomic...

  7. Emergent Macroeconomics An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Palestrini, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    This book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics by providing a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields like the microeconomics of capital market imperfections, industrial dynamics and the theory of stochastic processes can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. This book should be a valuable resource for all researchers interested in analyzing macroeconomic issues without recurring to a fictitious representative agent.

  8. Macroeconomic Adjustment in Armenia: The Role of External Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bas van AARLE

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a small macroeconomic model of the Armenian economy. After setting up the model and its estimation, a number of macroeconomic scenarios is analyzed in the form of out-of-sample simulations. We analyze the transmissions in the model of a number of macroeconomic shocks and policy scenarios to obtain a better understanding of their possible effects on the internal and external balance of the Armenian economy. A special focus is put on the role of exchange rate and monetary management and the inflow of remittances in the Armenian economy

  9. Macroeconomic Adjustment in Armenia: The Role of External Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Van Aarle, Bas

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a small macroeconomic model of the Armenian economy. After setting up the model and its estimation, a number of macroeconomic scenarios is analyzed in the form of out-of-sample simulations. We analyze the transmissions in the model of a number of macroeconomic shocks and policy scenarios to obtain a better understanding of their possible effects on the internal and external balance of the Armenian economy. A special focus is put on the role of exchange rate and monetary ma...

  10. Essays in political economy and resource economic : A macroeconomic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez Acosta, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of four chapters in Political Economy and Resource Economics from a macroeconomic perspective. This collection of works emphasizes the endogenous nature of institutions and their importance for economic development. The four chapters revolve around two central questions:

  11. A study on the effect of macroeconomic variables and firm ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study on the effect of macroeconomic variables and firm characteristics on the quality of financial reporting of listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL ...

  12. Inflows and their Macroeconomic Impact in India a VAR Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayan Sethi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study attempts to examine the effects of private foreign capital inflows (FINV on macroeconomic variables in India. The study also examines the trends and composition of capital inflows into India. Using the Vector Autoregression (VAR method, this paper specifically examines effects of private foreign capital inflows (FINV on macroeconomic variables in India. This study is based on the monthly data from 1995:04 to 2011:07 and incorporating the macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate (EXR, inflation, money supply (M3, export (EXPO, import (IMP, foreign exchange reserve (FOREX and economic growth (IIP as proxy of GDP. The important observations emerge from the VAR analysis which shows there is dynamic short and long equilibrium relationship between few macroeconomic variables like exchange rate (EXR, foreign exchange reserve (FOREX, index of industrial production (IIP and money supply (M3 with private foreign capital inflows (FINV during the study period from 1995:04 to 2011:07

  13. Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2009-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations

  14. Interactive macroeconomics stochastic aggregate dynamics with heterogeneous and interacting agents

    CERN Document Server

    Di Guilmi, Corrado

    2017-01-01

    One of the major problems of macroeconomic theory is the way in which the people exchange goods in decentralized market economies. There are major disagreements among macroeconomists regarding tools to influence required outcomes. Since the mainstream efficient market theory fails to provide an internal coherent framework, there is a need for an alternative theory. The book provides an innovative approach for the analysis of agent based models, populated by the heterogeneous and interacting agents in the field of financial fragility. The text is divided in two parts; the first presents analytical developments of stochastic aggregation and macro-dynamics inference methods. The second part introduces macroeconomic models of financial fragility for complex systems populated by heterogeneous and interacting agents. The concepts of financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics are explained in detail in separate chapters. The statistical physics approach is applied to explain theories of macroeconomic modelling a...

  15. a review of selected macroeconomic factors impacting building

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2011-09-27

    Sep 27, 2011 ... This study therefore investigates the impact of macro-economic indicators on the prices of building ... should maintain stable inflationary trend. Keywords: .... instability in the naira will lead to instability in material prices and ...

  16. IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES ON POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN PAKISTAN

    OpenAIRE

    Israr Fahad; Ali Rehmat

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides strategy to explain the macroeconomic determinants for eradicating poverty in Pakistan. An empirical analysis of macroeconomic indicators are based on the data for the year 1994 to 2005. Ordinary least square estimation was used to estimate the parameters of multiple variable regression model. Gini coefficient is used to measure the inequality in income distribution. The results suggest that per capita income, and remittances, are highly significant, developmental expendit...

  17. Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

    OpenAIRE

    Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

    2012-01-01

    Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

  18. The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Malaysian Post Recession Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Chin

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to find out the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in Malaysian post recession growth. The selected macroeconomic variables are exports, imports, price level, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and government expenditure. The technique of cointegration was employed to assess the long run equilibrium relationships among the variables. Then, this study performs the Granger causality tests based on VECM to establish the short run causality among the variables. The long-ru...

  19. Financial Regulation in an Agent Based Macroeconomic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Mauro, Gallegati

    2013-01-01

    Starting from the agent-based decentralized matching macroeconomic model proposed in Riccetti et al. (2012), we explore the effects of banking regulation on macroeconomic dynamics. In particular, we study the overall credit exposure and the lending concentration towards a single counterparty, finding that the portfolio composition seems to be more relevant than the overall exposure for banking stability, even if both features are very important. We show that a too tight regulation is dangerou...

  20. The Relevance of Using Mathematical Models in Macroeconomic Policies Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Mihail

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a look of the principal’s mathematical models – starting with Theil, Hansen and Tinbergen work – and their results used to analysis and design macroeconomic policies. In modeling field changes are very fast in theoretical aspects of modeling the many problems of macroeconomic policies and in using in practice the different political models elaboration. The article points out the problems of static and dynamic theory used in macro-policies modeling.

  1. The Relevance of Using Mathematical Models in Macroeconomic Policies Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nora Mihail

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a look of the principal’s mathematical models – starting with Theil, Hansen and Tinbergen work – and their results used to analysis and design macroeconomic policies. In modeling field changes are very fast in theoretical aspects of modeling the many problems of macroeconomic policies and in using in practice the different political models elaboration. The article points out the problems of static and dynamic theory used in macro-policies modeling.

  2. The Czech Equity Market - Its Effectiveness and Macroeconomic Consequences

    OpenAIRE

    Helena Horská

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines features of the Czech stock market’s development from 1997 to 2003 and attempts to unveil the macroeconomic consequences of stock-price development. The analysis of the stock market’s behavior supports a cautionary stance on the hypothesis of the efficient-market theory, even in its weak form. Another finding, as regards the macroeconomic consequences of stock-price development, undermined the assumption of the positive wealth effect of rising stocks. In relation to GDP gr...

  3. Research in the service of modern macroeconomic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pantelić Svetlana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims, American professors, conducted independent scientific researches back in the 1970s and 1980s, yet the explanation of the 2011 Nobel Prize Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy states that the methods they developed are among the crucial tools in today's macroeconomic analysis. More precisely, they were awarded for their empirical research on cause and effect in macroeconomics.

  4. Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Munazza Jabeen; Saud Ahmad Khan

    2014-01-01

    What drives volatility in foreign exchange market in Pakistan? This paper undertakes an analysis of modelling exchange rate volatility in Pakistan by potential macroeconomic fundamentals well-known in the economic literature. For this, monthly data on Pak Rupee exchange rates in the terms of major currencies (US Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen) and macroeconomics fundamentals is taken from April, 1982 to November, 2011. The results show thatthe PKR-USD exchange rate vo...

  5. Macroeconomic Dimensions in the Clusterization Processes: Lithuanian Biomass Cluster Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navickas Valentinas

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The Future production systems’ increasing significance will impose work, which maintains not a competitive, but a collaboration basis, with concentrated resources and expertise, which can help to reach the general purpose. One form of collaboration among medium-size business organizations is work in clusters. Clusterization as a phenomenon has been known from quite a long time, but it offers simple benefits to researches at micro and medium levels. The clusterization process evaluation in macroeconomic dimensions has been comparatively little investigated. Thereby, in this article, the clusterization processes is analysed by concentrating our attention on macroeconomic factor researches. The authors analyse clusterization’s influence on country’s macroeconomic growth; they apply a structure research methodology for clusterization’s macroeconomic influence evaluation and propose that clusterization processes benefit macroeconomic analysis. The theoretical model of clusterization processes was validated by referring to a biomass cluster case. Because biomass cluster case is a new phenomenon, currently there are no other scientific approaches to them. The authors’ accomplished researches show that clusterization allows the achievement of a large positive slip in macroeconomics, which proves to lead to a high value added to creation, a faster country economic growth, and social situation amelioration.

  6. ABOUT MACROECONOMIC PURPOSE OF THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE BALANCED MACROECONOMIC SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Vladimirov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is a theoretical substantiation of the possibility of DOS reaches the maximum possible public efficiencies of government spending, investments and taxes in perfect condition coordination bath open economic system. The proposed model can always bring in the ideal case («zero-loss" public effectively scope of public expenditure and investment to the maximum possible rate of economic growth, that allows you to substantiate the main directions of the relevant macroeconomic (fiscal, tax and budget policy.

  7. IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization. One of them could be: globalization is an ecosystem in which economic potential is no longer defined or contained by political and geographic boundaries. Economic activity has no bounds in a globalized economy. A globalized world is one where goods, services, financial capital, machinery, money, workers and ideas migrate to wherever they are most valued and can work together most efficiently, flexibly and securely. Where does economic policy come into play in this world? This paper presents some aspects of globalization and the impact on the new strategy of macroeconomics policy.

  8. A multilevel simultaneous equations model for within-cluster dynamic effects, with an application to reciprocal parent–child and sibling effects

    OpenAIRE

    Fiona Steele; Jon Rasbash; Jennifer Jenkins

    2013-01-01

    There has been substantial interest in the social and health sciences in the reciprocal causal influences that people in close relationships have on one another. Most research has considered reciprocal processes involving only 2 units, although many social relationships of interest occur within a larger group (e.g., families, work groups, peer groups, classrooms). This article presents a general longitudinal multilevel modeling framework for the simultaneous estimation of reciprocal relations...

  9. Macroeconomic impact of HIV: the need for better modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Erik; Haacker, Markus; Ventelou, Bruno; Greener, Robert

    2010-05-01

    To critically evaluate the recent literature on macroeconomic repercussions of the HIV pandemic and the response to it. The review focuses on the impacts of HIV through both its health consequences and its impact on the accumulation of human capital. So far, most studies have found a moderate impact of the HIV epidemic on macroeconomic growth. However, recent studies tend to emphasize the fact that HIV undermines human capital and implies a long-term detriment for economic development. Availability of data from Demographic and Health Surveys offers opportunities for better understanding the relationship between the HIV epidemic and economic growth through pathways linking its microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts. The macroeconomic impact of HIV observed so far appears moderate. Our analysis of recent literature, however, points out three important issues that may have been previously underestimated. First, the most important effects may occur in the longer run, through changes in the accumulation of human capital. Second, aggregate impact often masks an unequal impact among different economic groups. Third, the empirical evidence on which current macroeconomic models are based remains weak, in particular in the way it takes into account responses to HIV at the households' level. Microsimulation models and the recently increasing availability of robust datasets at households' level offer promising opportunities to address these issues.

  10. Effects of macroeconomic conditions on health in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Sousa, Tanara Rosângela Vieira de

    2010-04-01

    To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenner's hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

  11. The macro-economic rebound effect and the UK economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Terry; Ekins, Paul; Foxon, Tim

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the UK economy arising from energy efficiency policies 2000-2010 using the macroeconomic model, MDM-E3. The literature distinguishes between three types of rebound effect: direct, indirect and economy-wide. The macroeconomic rebound effect considered here is the combination of the indirect and economy-wide effects. Policies for the domestic, business, commercial and public, and transport sectors of the economy are analysed for 2000-2010. Overall, the policies lead to a saving of about 8% of the energy, which would otherwise have been used and a reduction in CO 2 emissions of 10% (or 14 mtC) by 2010. There are also favourable macroeconomic effects: lower inflation and higher growth. We find that the macroeconomic rebound effect arising from UK energy efficiency policies for the period 2000-2010 is around 11% by 2010, averaged across sectors of the economy. When this is added to the (assumed) direct rebound effect of around 15%, this gives a total rebound effect of around 26% arising from these policies. Thus, the findings of the study support the argument that energy efficiency improvements for both consumers and producers, stimulated by policy incentives, will lead to significant reductions in energy demand and hence in greenhouse gas emissions

  12. Simultaneous release of diclofenac sodium and papaverine hydrochloride from tablets and pellets using the flow-through cell apparatus described by dimensionless equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasperek, Regina

    2011-01-01

    The release of diclofenac sodium and papaverine hydrochloride from tablets and pellets using the flow-through cell apparatus was studied. The influence of excipients and of a size of the solid dosage forms on the amount of the released substances at the intervals of time using the different rates of flow of the dissolution medium was investigated. Physical parameters corresponding to the dissolution process as the mass transfer coefficient, the thickness of the boundary diffusion layer and the concentration of the saturated solution at this layer were calculated. The results of release were described by dimensionless equations.

  13. Impact of inflation on the macroeconomic indicators in transition economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranković Marko

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is dealing with treats of inflation in times of world financial turmoil. It examines how inflation is impacting macroeconomic factors. Is there relationship and how strong it is between inflation and economic growth, unemployment rate and other selected economic indicators? Motivated by these questions, this paper examines the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic indicators: real GDP annual growth rate, privatization revenues, as part of the GDP, level of investments, unemployment rate and share of assets of foreign banks in domestic bank system by using data for 13 transition economies over the period 1993-2008. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic indicators is significantly and strongly negative, observed for the region. However, for small number countries in transition there is no direct significant relationship between inflation, but indirect relationship has been showed.

  14. Macroeconomic and social change and popular demand for redistribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jæger, Mads Meier

    This paper tests the self-interest hypothesis arguing that changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect popular demand for redistribution. I analyze data from four waves of the European Social Survey and use a synthetic cohort design to generate pseudo panel data for socio......-demographic groups that are matched over time. I estimate fixed effect models and find that (1) changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect the demand for redistribution; (2) results are mostly consistent with the self-interest hypothesis claiming that agents demand more redistribution in economically hard...... times (and vice versa in good times); and (3) the effect of macroeconomic and social conditions on the demand for redistribution are highly non-linear....

  15. Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chirwa Themba G.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper conducts a qualitative narrative appraisal of the existing empirical literature on the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in developing and developed countries. Much as other empirical studies have investigated the determinants of economic growth using various econometric methods, the majority of these studies have not distinguished what drives or hinders economic growth in developing or developed countries. The study finds that the determinants of economic growth are different when this distinction is used. It reveals that in developing countries the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth include foreign aid, foreign direct investment, fiscal policy, investment, trade, human capital development, demographics, monetary policy, natural resources, reforms and geographic, regional, political and financial factors. In developed countries, the study reveals that the key macroeconomic determinants that are associated with economic growth include physical capital, fiscal policy, human capital, trade, demographics, monetary policy and financial and technological factors.

  16. Kalman filters for assimilating near-surface observations into the Richards equation - Part 2: A dual filter approach for simultaneous retrieval of states and parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, H.; Romano, N.; Chirico, G. B.

    2014-07-01

    This study presents a dual Kalman filter (DSUKF - dual standard-unscented Kalman filter) for retrieving states and parameters controlling the soil water dynamics in a homogeneous soil column, by assimilating near-surface state observations. The DSUKF couples a standard Kalman filter for retrieving the states of a linear solver of the Richards equation, and an unscented Kalman filter for retrieving the parameters of the soil hydraulic functions, which are defined according to the van Genuchten-Mualem closed-form model. The accuracy and the computational expense of the DSUKF are compared with those of the dual ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) implemented with a nonlinear solver of the Richards equation. Both the DSUKF and the DEnKF are applied with two alternative state-space formulations of the Richards equation, respectively differentiated by the type of variable employed for representing the states: either the soil water content (θ) or the soil water matric pressure head (h). The comparison analyses are conducted with reference to synthetic time series of the true states, noise corrupted observations, and synthetic time series of the meteorological forcing. The performance of the retrieval algorithms are examined accounting for the effects exerted on the output by the input parameters, the observation depth and assimilation frequency, as well as by the relationship between retrieved states and assimilated variables. The uncertainty of the states retrieved with DSUKF is considerably reduced, for any initial wrong parameterization, with similar accuracy but less computational effort than the DEnKF, when this is implemented with ensembles of 25 members. For ensemble sizes of the same order of those involved in the DSUKF, the DEnKF fails to provide reliable posterior estimates of states and parameters. The retrieval performance of the soil hydraulic parameters is strongly affected by several factors, such as the initial guess of the unknown parameters, the wet or dry

  17. Aid Policy and the Macroeconomic Management of Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addison, Tony; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    This is an introduction to the UNU-WIDER special issue of World Development on aid policy and the macroeconomic management of aid. We provide an overview of the 10 studies, grouping them under three sub-themes: the aid–growth relationship; the supply-side of aid (including its level, volatility......, and coordination of donors); and the macroeconomic framework around aid. The studies in the special issue demonstrate the centrality of research methodology, the importance of disaggregation, and the need to account for country-specific situations and problems. This introduction concludes that the sometimes “over...

  18. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  19. Macroeconomic Dynamics of Assets, Leverage and Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozendaal, Jeroen C.; Malevergne, Yannick; Sornette, Didier

    A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of economic growth, and how credit may be associated with both economic performance and confidence. Our first notable finding is the mechanism of reward/penalty associated with patience, as quantified by the return on assets. In regular economies where the EBITA/Assets ratio is larger than the cost of debt, starting with a trust higher than leverage results in the highest long-term return on assets (which can be seen as a proxy for economic growth). Therefore, patient economies that first build trust and then increase leverage are positively rewarded. Our second main finding concerns a recommendation for the reaction of a central bank to an external shock that affects negatively the economic growth. We find that late policy intervention in the model economy results in the highest long-term return on assets. However, this comes at the cost of suffering longer from the crisis until the intervention occurs. The phenomenon that late intervention is most effective to attain a high long-term return on assets can be ascribed to the fact that postponing intervention allows trust to increase first, and it is most effective to intervene when trust is high. These results are derived from two fundamental assumptions underlying our model: (a) trust tends to increase when it is above leverage; (b) economic agents learn optimally to adjust debt for a given level of trust and amount of assets. Using a Markov Switching Model for the EBITA/Assets ratio, we have successfully calibrated our model to the empirical data of the return on equity of the EURO STOXX 50 for the time period 2000-2013. We find that dynamics of leverage and trust can be highly nonmonotonous with curved trajectories, as a result of the nonlinear coupling between the variables. This

  20. A multilevel simultaneous equations model for within-cluster dynamic effects, with an application to reciprocal parent-child and sibling effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Fiona; Rasbash, Jon; Jenkins, Jennifer

    2013-03-01

    There has been substantial interest in the social and health sciences in the reciprocal causal influences that people in close relationships have on one another. Most research has considered reciprocal processes involving only 2 units, although many social relationships of interest occur within a larger group (e.g., families, work groups, peer groups, classrooms). This article presents a general longitudinal multilevel modeling framework for the simultaneous estimation of reciprocal relationships among individuals with unique roles operating in a social group. We use family data for illustrative purposes, but the model is generalizable to any social group in which measurements of individuals in the social group occur over time, individuals have unique roles, and clustering of the data is evident. We allow for the possibility that the outcomes of family members are influenced by a common set of unmeasured family characteristics. The multilevel model we propose allows for residual variation in the outcomes of parents and children at the occasion, individual, and family levels and residual correlation between parents and children due to the unmeasured shared environment, genetic factors, and shared measurement. Another advantage of this method over approaches used in previous family research is it can handle mixed family sizes. The method is illustrated in an analysis of maternal depression and child delinquency using data from the Avon Brothers and Sisters Study. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Kalman filters for assimilating near-surface observations in the Richards equation - Part 2: A dual filter approach for simultaneous retrieval of states and parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, H.; Romano, N.; Chirico, G. B.

    2012-12-01

    We present a dual Kalman Filter (KF) approach for retrieving states and parameters controlling soil water dynamics in a homogenous soil column by using near-surface state observations. The dual Kalman filter couples a standard KF algorithm for retrieving the states and an unscented KF algorithm for retrieving the parameters. We examine the performance of the dual Kalman Filter applied to two alternative state-space formulations of the Richards equation, respectively differentiated by the type of variable employed for representing the states: either the soil water content (θ) or the soil matric pressure head (h). We use a synthetic time-series series of true states and noise corrupted observations and a synthetic time-series of meteorological forcing. The performance analyses account for the effect of the input parameters, the observation depth and the assimilation frequency as well as the relationship between the retrieved states and the assimilated variables. We show that the identifiability of the parameters is strongly conditioned by several factors, such as the initial guess of the unknown parameters, the wet or dry range of the retrieved states, the boundary conditions, as well as the form (h-based or θ-based) of the state-space formulation. State identifiability is instead efficient even with a relatively coarse time-resolution of the assimilated observation. The accuracy of the retrieved states exhibits limited sensitivity to the observation depth and the assimilation frequency.

  2. Macroeconomic Variables, International Islamic Indices, and The Return Volatility in Jakarta Islamic Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoghi Citra Pratama

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available According to understand the behavior of Islamic equity markets the primary objective of this research is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic indicators and International Islamic Index on return volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index. The analysis method used in this study is AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic-Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH-GARCH. The result of this research showed that all variables, i.e., BI rate, inflation rate, IDR-USD exchange rate, DJIUS index, DJIUK index, FTSJP index and FTSMY index have a simultaneously significant impact on return volatility of JII. While t-test results show that BI rate, IDR-USD exchange rate, DJIUK index and FTSMY index have a substantial effect on return volatility of JII.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v10i1.5550

  3. Macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows from russia to tajikistan

    OpenAIRE

    Mirzosaid Sultonov

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we assess the macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows from Russia to Tajikistan. Applying quarterly time series and an econometric model with regression analyses, we find that Russia's economic growth and Tajikistan's inflation have positive and statistically significant effects on remittances, and Russia's unemployment has negative and statistically significant effects.

  4. Effects of Macroeconomic Policies on Rural Nonfarm Enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Librero, Aida R.

    1994-01-01

    With the excessive labor supply and the persistence of urban-rural migration, the development of nonfarm enterprises is imperative from the government. This paper develops an analytical framework to determine the impact of macroeconomic policies on rural nonfarm enterprises (RNEs). It also analyzes the trends in RNEs growth, the changes in the government policies towards sector and the markets for its output. sexmovie

  5. Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir's water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes -such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir's capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology. Keywords: Entropy, uncertainty, pricing, hub energy resource, RES, energy storage, capacity scarcity, macroeconomics

  6. Testing Non-Stationarity in Selected Macroeconomic Series from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study tested stationarity in a selected set of macroeconomic variables (some constructed) from Sudan over the period 1969 to 1998. Augmented Dickey Fuller tests were employed to test for presence of unit roots. The study found that unit roots existed in most variables, namely, private investment, public investment, real ...

  7. MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND GREENFIELD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT OF HOTEL BRANDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jože Perić

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The powerful attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI is particularly important for further development of tourism. The strategically focused attraction of FDI in tourism has a much higher significance because of the multiple effects in relation to other segments of the economy. In this context, it is necessary to highlight the investment engagement and the presence of globally branded luxury hotels. The purpose of the study is to assess the macroeconomic environment, the effects of greenfield FDI in tourism and, consequently, the presence of global hotel brands using the comparative analysis of the selected countries as the methodological basis of this study. The research results indicate that a favorable macroeconomic environment plays an important role in attracting foreign capital. Countries that have a more favorable macroeconomic environment attract more greenfield FDI, and provide a greater presence of global hotel brands, and thus greater competitiveness. Also, the political stability, the encouraging macroeconomic business conditions, the elimination of administrative and legislative barriers, the elimination of the country's image as a corrupt destination and tourism staff education at all levels are particularly important for FDI in tourism.

  8. Exploring Fiscal Policy at Zero Interest Rates in Intermediate Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamurthy, Srikanth; Sedgley, Norman

    2013-01-01

    Since the financial meltdown of 2007, advanced macroeconomic theory has delved more deeply into the question of the appropriate fiscal policy when the nominal interest rate is close to or at zero percent. Such analysis is typically conducted with the aid of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The policy implications are,…

  9. Extending the Principles of Intensive Writing to Large Macroeconomics Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Docherty, Peter; Tse, Harry; Forman, Ross; McKenzie, Jo

    2010-01-01

    The authors report on the design and implementation of a pilot program to extend the principles of intensive writing outlined by W. Lee Hansen (1998), Murray S. Simpson and Shireen E. Carroll (1999) and David Carless (2006) to large macroeconomics classes. The key aspect of this program was its collaborative nature, with staff from two specialist…

  10. Macroeconomic policies and increasing social-health inequality in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaboli, Rouhollah; Seyedin, Seyed Hesam; Malmoon, Zainab

    2014-08-01

    Health is a complex phenomenon that can be studied from different approaches. Despite a growing research in the areas of Social Determinants of Health (SDH) and health equity, effects of macroeconomic policies on the social aspect of health are unknown in developing countries. This study aimed to determine the effect of macroeconomic policies on increasing of the social-health inequality in Iran. This study was a mixed method research. The study population consisted of experts dealing with social determinants of health. A purposive, stratified and non-random sampling method was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to collect the data along with a multiple attribute decision-making method for the quantitative phase of the research in which the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was employed for prioritization. The NVivo and MATLAB softwares were used for data analysis. Seven main themes for the effect of macroeconomic policies on increasing the social-health inequality were identified. The result of TOPSIS approved that the inflation and economic instability exert the greatest impact on social-health inequality, with an index of 0.710 and the government policy in paying the subsidies with a 0.291 index has the lowest impact on social-health inequality in the country. It is required to invest on the social determinants of health as a priority to reduce health inequality. Also, evaluating the extent to which the future macroeconomic policies impact the health of population is necessary.

  11. Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Volatility : Theory and Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizinga, H.P.; Zhu, D.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a simple model capturing differences between debt and equity finance to examine how financial structure matters for macroeconomic volatility. Debt finance is relatively cheap in the sense that debt holders need to verify relatively few profitability states, but debt finance may

  12. Test of arbitrage pricing theory using macroeconomic variables

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eyerusalem

    variables; namely, exchange rate, an index of industrial production, nominal money supply ... Key Words: Arbitrage Pricing, Macroeconomic variables, Stock Market ... or theoretical market indices, where sensitivity to changes in each factor is represented ... Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Volume XXI, No 1, April 2012. 3.

  13. An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Bryan

    1976-01-01

    Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

  14. Do financial variables help predict the macroeconomic environment?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Havránek, T.; Horváth, R.; Matějů, Jakub

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 2 (2011), s. 14-17 ISSN 1803-7089 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : macroeconomic environment * monetary restriction * financial system Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cnb.cz/miranda2/export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/erb/download/ERB_No2_2011.pdf

  15. Beyond stimulus versus austerity: pluralist capacity building in macroeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.P. van Staveren (Irene)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstract_In this article a pluralist teaching method in macroeconomics is explained with examples. It demonstrates why pluralist macro teaching is important and that it is feasible even at the introductory level. It shows how it can be carried out using five key economic theories: social

  16. The Use of Narrative Interview in Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Peggy

    2010-01-01

    The author describes the design and implementation of one experiential learning assignment used in a principles of macroeconomics course. The learning exercise provides an active role for students and results in a relational experience that provides traditional undergraduate students with a frame of reference with which to interpret the impact of…

  17. Teaching with Data in the Principles of Macroeconomics Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Hong

    2012-01-01

    Economic data play an important role in the study of macroeconomics. Teaching with data through interactive classes can engage students more fully in the learning process. Although the pedagogy of teaching with data has been widely applied in the undergraduate science classroom, its extension to the economics classroom is rarely discussed. This…

  18. The Loanable-Funds Approach to Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleisher, Belton; Kopecky, Kenneth J.

    1987-01-01

    Argues for replacing the liquidity-preference approach with the loanable-funds approach in introductory macroeconomics courses. Claims the loanable-funds model allows students to see more clearly relationships between such economic concepts as fiscal policy and interest rates. Illustrates how this model can be used to describe the movement from…

  19. Sovereign risk and macroeconomic fluctuations in an emerging market economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kirchner, M.; Rieth, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: a basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on government

  20. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  1. Unclogging the Credit Channel: on the Macroeconomics of Banking Frictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jakucionyte, E.; van Wijnbergen, S.

    2018-01-01

    We explore the consequences of different financial frictions on the corporate and banking level for macroeconomic policy responsiveness to major policy measures. We show that both corporate and bank debt overhang greatly reduce the effectiveness of fiscal policy: multipliers turn negative with debt

  2. The dynamic relationship between Bursa Malaysia composite index and macroeconomic variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Rose, Farid Zamani Che; Rahman, Rosmanjawati Abd.

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates and analyzes the long run and short run relationships between Bursa Malaysia Composite index (KLCI) and nine macroeconomic variables in a VAR/VECM framework. After regression analysis seven out the nine macroeconomic variables are chosen for further analysis. The use of Johansen-Juselius Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique indicate that there are long run relationships between the seven macroeconomic variables and KLCI. Meanwhile, Granger causality test shows that bidirectional relationship between KLCI and oil price. Furthermore, after 12 months the shock on KLCI are explained by innovations of the seven macroeconomic variables. This indicate the close relationship between macroeconomic variables and KLCI.

  3. Differential model of macroeconomic growth with endogenic cyclicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail I. Geraskin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics. Methods economic and mathematical modeling system analysis regression factor analysis econometric time series analysis. Results the article states that under unstable economic growth in Russia forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors taking into account such basic concepts as the neoKeynesian HarrodDomar model Ramsey ndash Cass ndash Koopmans model S. V. Dubovskiyrsquos concept as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multifactor differential economic growth model which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow taking into account the laborsaving and capitalsaving forms of scientifictechnical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP employment fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 19652016 in Russia on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of longwave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated which shows that after 2020 the increase of scientifictechnical progress will be negative. Scientific novelty a model is proposed of the scientifictechnical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained which endogenously takes cyclicity into account

  4. The structuralist tradition in economics: methodological and macroeconomics aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FABRÍCIO MISSIO

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the structuralist tradition in economics, emphasizing the role that structures play in the economic growth of developing countries. Since the subject at hand is evidently too large to cover in a single article, an emphasis has been brought to bear upon the macroeconomic elements of such a tradition, while also exploring its methodological aspects. It begins by analysing some general aspects of structuralism in economics (its evolution and origins associated with ECLAC thought, in this instance focusing on the dynamics of the center-periphery relationship. Thereafter, the macroeconomic structuralism derived from the works of Taylor (1983, 1991 is presented, followed by a presentation of neo-structuralism. Centred on the concept of systemic competitiveness, this approach defines a strategy to achieve the high road of globalization, understood here as an inevitable process in spite of its engagement being dependent on the policies adopted. The conclusions show the genuine contributions of this tradition to economic theory.

  5. The macroeconomic consequences of controlling greenhouse gases: a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boero, Gianna; Clarke, Rosemary; Winters, L.A.

    1991-01-01

    This is the summary of a major report which provides a survey of existing estimates of the macroeconomic consequences of controlling greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). There are broadly speaking two main questions. What are the consequences of global warming for economic activity and welfare? What, if any, are the economic consequences of reducing the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? This survey covers only those studies which quantify the overall (macroeconomic) costs of abating greenhouse gas emissions. It is not concerned with whether any particular degree of abatement is sufficient to reduce global warming, nor whether it is worth undertaking in the light of its benefits. These are topics for other researchers and other papers. Here we are concerned only to map the relationship between economic welfare and GHG abatement. (author)

  6. Sustainability transitions in the perspective of ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    Globally, societies are facing a number of serious environmental, economic and social crises. Although the multiple crises are interrelated, research communities tend to be organised around specific complexes of problems. This paper is intended to contribute to the development of an ecological...... macroeconomics that addresses multiple crises by including insights from different, partly overlapping research communities. The main idea is to explore the usefulness of combining three different system perspectives in the study of sustainability transitions: socio-technical provision systems, distributional...... systems and macroeconomic systems. First, the theoretical concept of sustainability and the different system perspectives are outlined, and then the perspectives are brought together in the discussion of a specific topic that is key to sustainable transition: the need for considerable resources to invest...

  7. DUAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Herianingrum

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to evaluate the impact of dual monetary policy shock on macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia: growth and inflation. In addition, this study will also examine whether conventional monetary policy has a particular impact upon Islamic banking sector. This research apply VAR (vector auto regressive method on monthly data from Bank Of Indonesia during the period of January 2010 to December 2013. The result of IRF explain that the interest rate channel find the hard way to accomplished the macroeconomic goals while the Islamic monetary instrument indicates the potential growth of output and hold the inflation low. The result of VDC describes that the Islamic instrument still affected by conventional monetary policy because of slow development in Islamic monetary systemDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.1990

  8. Dual Monetary System and Macroeconomic Performance in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Herianingrum

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to evaluate the impact of dual monetary policyshock on macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia: growth and inflation. Inaddition, this study will also examine whether conventional monetary policy hasa particular impact upon Islamic banking sector. This research apply VAR (vectorauto regressive method on monthly data from Bank Of Indonesia during theperiod of January 2010 to December 2013. The result of IRF explain that theinterest rate channel find the hard way to accomplished the macroeconomic goalswhile the Islamic monetary instrument indicates the potential growth of outputand hold the inflation low. The result of VDC describes that the Islamic instrumentstill affected by conventional monetary policy because of slow development inIslamic monetary systemDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.2509

  9. Macroeconomic policies and economic democracy in neoliberal Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Bin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The objective of this paper is to investigate some of the forms of conduct of macroeconomic policies related to a substantive concept of democracy, characterized by popular participation - direct or through representatives - in decisions that unevenly affect the material well-being of the entire Brazilian population. Special attention is given to decisions about the country's public indebtedness in the years following the launching of the RealPlan. Empirical evidences show a limited democracy, revealed by the material inequality, which in turn reproduces political inequality and restricts real freedom. This is combined with the selective bureaucratic insulation of economic policy decisions, and the parliament's failure to deal with the macroeconomic agenda. The latter is thus left to the control of the executive branch's economic apparatus, which on one hand submits itself to substantial political influence from finance and, on the other hand, restricts popular participation in decisions on both fiscal and monetary policies.

  10. Macroeconomic Reasons of Debts in Polish Health Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamila Szymańska

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of debts in polish health service. Author analyzes the macroeconomic reasons of this situation. As a main reasons are indicated: a specificity of the health service market, which leads to a inefficient allocation of health services, lack of reliable data on health care system, too low level of public expenditure on a health care, inappropriate allocation of public capital and a monopolistic position of the payer.

  11. Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Rashid Amjad; A.R. Kemal

    1997-01-01

    The paper provides a consistent time-series of poverty estimates for the period 1963- 64 to 1992-93 for both the rural as well as the urban areas, examines the influence of macroeconomic policies on the poverty levels, analyses the impact of Structural Adjustment Programmes on the levels of poverty, and suggests a strategy for poverty alleviation in Pakistan. The paper explores in particular the influence on poverty of such factors as economic growth, agricultural growth, terms of trade for t...

  12. Criticism of the Classical Theory of Macroeconomic Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin K. Kumehov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Current approaches and methods of modeling of macroeconomic systems do not allow to generate research ideas that could be used in applications. This is largely due to the fact that the dominant economic schools and research directions are building their theories on misconceptions about the economic system as object modeling, and have no common methodological approaches in the design of macroeconomic models. All of them are focused on building a model aimed at establishing equilibrium parameters of supply and demand, production and consumption. At the same time as the underlying factors are not considered resource potential and the needs of society in material and other benefits. In addition, there is no unity in the choice of elements and mechanisms of interaction between them. Not installed, what are the criteria to determine the elements of the model: whether it is the institutions, whether the industry is whether the population, or banks, or classes, etc. From the methodological point of view, the design of the model all the most well-known authors extrapolated to the new models of the past state or past events. As a result, every time the model is ready by the time the situation changes, the last parameters underlying the model are losing relevance, so at best, the researcher may have to interpret the events and parameters that are not feasible in the future. In this paper, based on analysis of the works of famous authors, belonging to different schools and areas revealed weaknesses of their proposed macroeconomic models that do not allow you to use them to solve applied problems of economic development. A fundamentally new approaches and methods by which it is possible the construction of macroeconomic models that take into account the theoretical and applied aspects of modeling, as well as formulated the basic methodological requirements.

  13. Open-Economy Macroeconomics, Developments in Theory and Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Maurice Obstfeld

    1999-01-01

    This paper surveys recent research in open-economy macroeconomics, using questions raised by European economic and monetary unification to guide the topics discussed. A striking empirical regularity is the tendency for changes in the nominal exchange rate regime systematically to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike. This regularity (which disappears in high-inflation conditions) can be explained by sticky-price theories or by models of asset-market liquidity effect...

  14. Macroeconomic consequences of gender discrimination: a preliminary approach (refereed paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Melchor Fernandez; Yolanda Pena-Boquete

    2011-01-01

    Although the degree of gender wage discrimination has been estimated many times, its effects on the economy have not been too much studied, neither theoretically nor empirically. Consequently, in this paper we attempt to cover the existent void in this topic. First, we establish a theoretically framework of the macroeconomic consequences of gender discrimination and second, we attempt to check these results empirically. The existence of a degree of discrimination means that there is a wage di...

  15. Macroeconomic consequences of gender discrimination: a preliminary approach

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Melchor; Pena-Boquete, Yolanda

    2010-01-01

    Although the degree of gender wage discrimination has been estimated many times, its effects on the economy have not been too much studied, neither theoretically nor empirically. Consequently, in this paper we attempt to cover the existent void in this topic. First, we establish a theoretically framework of the macroeconomic consequences of gender discrimination and second, we attempt to check these results empirically. The existence of a degree of discrimination means that there is a wage di...

  16. Macroeconomic impact of the Solar Thermal Electricity Industry in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-10-15

    In the last three years, Solar Thermal Electricity (STE) in Spain has grown significantly. Its weight within the renewables mix is becoming relevant, and even more so, its impact on economics, society, the environment, and reducing energy dependence. This report was carried out by Deloitte for Protermosolar to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the main macroeconomic variables derived from the development of this technology in Spain from 2008 to 2010, and forecast its possible future impact.

  17. Tax Revenue and Macroeconomic Growth in Nigeria: A Contextual Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Miftahu Idris; Tunku Salhabinti Tunku Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    This paper aims at evaluating the influence of tax revenue on the macroeconomic management of the Nigerian economy using a conceptual approach. By so doing, a comprehensive review of the literature as well as in-depth analysis of tax structure are critically conducted. Undeniably, an insight that shows a precise influence or relationship between tax revenue and the nation’s growth can be regarded as a working tool for policymakers particularly in developing countries. In view of that, this pa...

  18. Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Bist30 Index Value in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Özge KORKMAZ; Eşref Savas BASCI; Süleyman Serdar KARACA

    2016-01-01

    In finance literature, main financial stock indices are important to determine country’s financial development and it’s behavior against the effect of macro-economic conditions. These conditions can listed as interest rate, inflation rate, money supply, exchange rate, industrial production index, and etc.  In changing world economy, macro economic conditions can affect to the financial stability and capital markets. Some economies have a financial vulnerability, and it is important to measure...

  19. Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of energy taxation in Austria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeppl, A.; Kratena, K.; Pichl, C.; Schebeck, F.; Wueger, M.; Schleicher, S.

    1996-01-01

    The effects of energy taxation on the Austrian economy are analyzed. Simulations are carried out with a linked input output macromodel. The macroeconomic effects of an energy tax on economic growth, employment, the rate of inflation (change in the consumer price index), the budget deficit and the current account will be explained, as well as the sectoral impact on differenT industries. 7 tabs., 7 refs

  20. Institutional arrangements of Currency Boards - Comparative Macroeconomic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Lubomira Anastassova

    1999-01-01

    This paper is concentrated on the comparative macroeconomic analysis of the differences stemming from the extent to which the institutional framework of the currency board arrangement is implemented in the legal and regulatory systems in the different countries. The main objective of taking into consideration and examining the currency board institutional arrangements is to distinguish between the impact that currency board countries and countries with pegged exchange rate have on different m...

  1. Essentials aspects on macroeconomic variables and their correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Constantin ANGHELACHE; Alexandru MANOLE; Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL; Aurelian DIACONU

    2016-01-01

    The measurement of the correlations between macroeconomic variables, including the cause-effect links, provide useful information for policy makers in the government and public agencies. Especially important is the system of relationships that reveals the influence of certain factors on the Gross Domestic Product. This paper outlines the influence of the unemployment, measured through the unemployment rate, the inflation. Also, the authors discuss the correlations of the econom...

  2. Financial innovation, macroeconomic volatility and the great moderation

    OpenAIRE

    Zaghini, Andrea; Bencivelli, Lorenzo

    2012-01-01

    In the paper we propose an assessment of the role of financial innovation in shaping US macroeconomic dynamics. We extend an existing model by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans which studied the transmission of monetary policy impulses to business and corporate sector financing variables just before the Great Moderation period. By investigating the properties of the model over a longer time span we show that in the later period a change in the monetary policy transmission mechanism is likely t...

  3. International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heteroegenous Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Ghironi, Fabio; Melitz, Marc J

    2004-01-01

    We develop a stochastic, general equilibrium, two-country model of trade and macroeconomic dynamics. Productivity differs across individual, monopolistically competitive firms in each country. Firms face a sunk entry cost in the domestic market and both fixed and per-unit export costs. Only relatively more productive firms export. Exogenous shocks to aggregate productivity and entry or trade costs induce firms to enter and exit both their domestic and export markets, thus altering the composi...

  4. On the Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Illegal Immigration

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xiangbo

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of illegal immigration on the native born within a dynamic general equilibrium framework with labor market frictions. A key feature of the model is that job competition is allowed for between domestic workers and illegal immigrants. We calibrate the model to match some key statistics of the postwar U.S. economy. The model predicts that in the long run illegal immigration is a boon, but the employment opportunities of domestic wo...

  5. Simple Macroeconomic Policies and Welfare: A Quantitative Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eurilton Araújo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We quantitatively compare three macroeconomic policies in a cash-credit goods framework. The policies are: the optimal one; another one that fully smoothes out oscillations in output; and a simple one that prescribes constant values for tax and monetary growth rates. As often found in the related literature, the welfare gains or losses from changing from a given policy to another are small. We also show that the simple policy dominates the one that leads to constant output.

  6. Stock market and macroeconomic variables : evidences from Lithuania

    OpenAIRE

    Pilinkus, Donatas

    2009-01-01

    The stock market has been historically viewed as a reliable instrument to indicate economic processes. However, contemporary papers reveal the controversy of the issue. A clear understanding of stock market determinants is vital for investors, regulators, and academic researchers. Therefore, future researches are required to further explore this issue. The present paper analyzes relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Lithuanian stock market index, i.e. OMX Vilnius in...

  7. Macroeconomic and industry-specific determinants of Greek bank profitability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zampara, K.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the external factors that influence the profitability of a typical Greek systemic bank over the period 2001 – 2014. Design/Methodology/Approach: A conceptual framework incorporating two fundamental groups of const ructs, namely, macroeconomic forces and industry related factors, was developed. Two constructs were examined in the former: GDP growth rate and unemployment rate, whilst two attributes were explored in the latter; the bank's market share, both in terms of deposits and in terms of assets, and the banking market growth, also both in terms of the market's total assets and total deposits. In order to isolate the effects of the ongoing financial crisis, the research was undertaken for two periods, firstly 2001 to 2014 and secondly, the period 2001 - 2011, which excluded the deep recession. Consequently, multiple regression analysis was conducted and linear models were specified by means of OLS. Findings: The empirical analysis revealed that both macroeconomic forces and industry-related factors affect bank profitability. As far as the macroeconomic factors are concerned, unemployment rate has a negative impact, whereas the GDP growth rate has a positive impact on bank profitability. The industry -related factors, rate of growth of the industry's deposits and bank's assets market share have a positive impact on the financial performance of the bank. Finally, the rate of growth of the industry's assets and the bank's deposits market share have a negative effect on bank profitability. Originality/Value: This study reveals the mechanism determining bank profitability over a recent period that includes the financial crisis. Moreover, understanding the impact of macroeconomic forces as well as industry related attributes on bank profitability may enable banks to focus on the most critical factors in their decision process.

  8. Families in the context of macroeconomic crises: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Gabriela; Cunha, Diana; Crespo, Carla; Relvas, Ana Paula

    2016-09-01

    The present study is a systematic review of empirical literature from the last 35 years on families' responses to economic distress in the context of macroeconomic crises. Thirty-nine studies published between 1983 and 2015 in 12 countries were identified, resulting in 3 main findings. First, economic distress was associated with negative changes in family dynamics, specifically couple relationships and parenting. Second, protective factors were found to buffer the adverse effects of economic distress on family and individual outcomes. Third, the results suggest that individual responses to macroeconomic crises may be moderated by sex. Implications for future research encompass using validated assessment instruments, including participants beyond 2-parent families with adolescent children and conducting both longitudinal and qualitative studies that focus on the processes and meanings of adaptation within this risk context. Conclusions highlighted the need to assist families dealing with macroeconomic crises' demands, encouraging the development and validation of macrosystemic intervention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. The impact of macroeconomic variables on SMEs in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halim, F. A.; Malim, M. R.; Derasit, Z.; Rani, R. M.; Rashid, S. S.

    2017-09-01

    Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia have gained a prominent role as the significant contributor to the economic growth. However, the world nowadays is heading towards economic downturn. The stability of macroeconomic variables promotes profitability of SMEs which propels them to a stage where they can access financing for sustaining growth. Therefore, it is apparent that the behaviour of the macroeconomic variables plays a major part in determining the nation’s backbone in surviving the economic downturn. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic variables on the profitability of SMEs in Malaysia using multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that the exchange rate has a small positive impact on SME GDP growth rate (10.81%), the interest rate has a strong positive impact (60.74%), while the inflation rate has a strong negative impact (-53.89%). Therefore, it can be concluded that the interest rate and inflation rate have significant impacts on the profitability of SMEs in Malaysia.

  10. Demographics and macroeconomic effects in aesthetic surgery in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, C O; Ho-Asjoe, M; Hittinger, R; Nishikawa, H; Waterhouse, N; Coghlan, B; Jones, B

    2004-09-01

    Media interest in aesthetic surgery is substantial and suggestions of demographic changes such as reductions in age or an increase in the number of male patients are common. In spite of this, there is no peer reviewed literature reporting demographics of a contemporary large patient cohort or of the effect of macroeconomic indicators on aesthetic surgery in the UK. In this study, computer records 13006 patients presenting between 1998 and the first quarter of 2003 at a significant aesthetic surgery centre were analysed for procedures undergone, patient age and sex. Male to female ratios for each procedure were calculated and a comparison was made between unit activity and macroeconomic indicators. The results showed that there has been no significant demographic change in the procedures studied with patient age and male to female ratio remaining constant throughout the period studied for each procedure. Comparison with macroeconomic indicators suggested increasing demand for aesthetic surgery in spite of a global recession. In conclusion, media reports of large scale demographic shifts in aesthetic surgery patients are exaggerated. The stability of unit activity in spite of falling national economic indicators suggested that some units in the UK might be relatively immune to economic vagaries. The implications for training are discussed.

  11. Asymmetric impacts of international energy shocks on macroeconomic activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, Fang-Yu; Hu, Jin-Li; Lin, Cheng-Hsun

    2012-01-01

    While limited by its scarcity of natural resources, the impacts of energy price changes on Taiwan's economic activities have been an important issue for social public and government authorities. This study applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the effects of various international energy price shocks on Taiwan's macroeconomic activity. By separating energy price changes into the so-called decrease and increase regimes, we can realize different impacts of energy price changes and their shocks on economic output. The results confirm that there is an asymmetric threshold effect for the energy-output nexus. The optimal threshold levels are exactly where the oil price change is at 2.48%, the natural gas price change is at 0.66%, and the coal price change is at 0.25%. The impulse response analysis suggests that oil price and natural gas shocks have a delayed negative impact on macroeconomic activities. - Highlights: ► This study applies multivariate threshold model to investigate the effects of various international energy price shocks on Taiwan's macroeconomic activity. ► The results confirm that there is an asymmetric threshold effect for energy-output nexus. ► The optimal threshold levels are exactly found where oil price change is at 2.48%, natural gas price change is at 0.66%, and coal price change is at 0.25%.

  12. Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Peng

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

  13. A Comparison of Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Approaches to Deforestation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Felardo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The economics of deforestation has been explored in detail. Generally, the frame of analysis takes either a microeconomics or macroeconomics approach. The microeconomics approach assumes that individual decision makers are responsible for deforestation as a result of utility maximizing behavior and imperfect property right regimes. The macroeconomics approach explores nationwide trends thought to be associated with forest conversion. This paper investigates the relationship between these two approaches by empirically testing the determinants of deforestation using the same data set from Thailand. The theory for both the microeconomics-based and macroeconomics-based approaches are developed and then tested statistically. The models were constructed using established theoretical frames developed in the literature. The results from both models show statistical significance consistent with prior results in the tropical deforestation literature. A comparison of the two approaches demonstrates that the macro approach is useful in identifying relevant aggregate trends in the deforestation process; the micro approach provides the opportunity to isolate factors of those trends which are necessary for effective policy decisions.

  14. The Relationship between Housing Finance and Macroeconomics Variables in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binti Mohd Shukor Nur Baizura

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Housing finance is one of the factors that contribute in the overall economy growth of the country. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship of housing finance variable and the macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. By adopting time series technique of Vector Auto regression (VAR and Impulse Response to determine the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic and housing finance variable. The cointegration result shows that there exists a long run relationship between the macroeconomic variable and housing finance variable. The finding from impulse response function indicates that Gross Domestic Product (GDP response positively to the Primary Mortgage Market (PMM, which shows that during the good economy there are more housing loan extends by the banking institution. Meanwhile, interest rate response negatively to Secondary Mortgage Market (SMM, which implies that during the financial crisis, more housing loan sold to the Secondary Mortgage Market as one of the measure by the government to increase liquidity in banking institutions. As a conclusion, there is presence of relationship between the variable which change in one variable will affect the other variable in the long run.

  15. Two steps simultaneous analysis of reactivity of L-norvaline in the T-for-H exchange reaction. Application of Taft equation to influence of Polar effect and steric effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kataoka, Noriaki; Imaizumi, Hiroshi; Saito, Hiroshi; Sato, Takayuki; Kano, Naoki

    2010-01-01

    In order to quantitatively evaluate the influence of tritium ( 3 H or T) on ecosystem and the reactivity of materials having H atoms, the hydrogen isotope exchange reaction (T-for-H exchange reaction) between L-norvaline and HTO vapor was observed at 50-70degC in the gas-solid system. Applying the A''-McKay plot method to data obtained in the reaction, the rate constants of the functional groups in the material were obtained. Comparing these rate constants, following seven matters have been found in the T-for-H exchange reaction. (1) The reactivity of the functional groups in L-norvaline increases with increasing temperature. (2) As to L-norvaline, 1) the temperature dependence of each functional group increases with the following order: COOH group > NH 2 one. 2) the reactivity of COOH group is 2.2 times greater than that of NH 2 one. (3) As to the influence of the substituent, the reactivity of COOH group is larger than that of the NH 2 one. (4) It seems that the reactivity of the amino acid follows Taft equation. (5) Applying Taft equation, the ratio of influence of polar effect to steric one is 10:0 in NH 2 group, and is 3:7 in COOH one. (6) Using the A - McKay plot method, the reactivity of each functional group in an amino acid is able to be nondestructively, quantitatively and simultaneously analyzed without using masking reagent. (7) The method used in this work may be useful to quickly determine the reactivity of the functional groups in the materials. (author)

  16. Assessing the Macroeconomic Importance of Gasoline and Vehicle Spending

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, Danilo J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Poyer, David A. [Morehouse College, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession, real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and

  17. Importance of the macroeconomic variables for variance prediction: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Hou, Ai Jun; Javed, Farrukh

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long-term compone......This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long...

  18. Exploring the association between macroeconomic indicators and dialysis mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Anneke; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Stengel, Benedicte; Elliott, Robert F; Covic, Adrian; Geue, Claudia; Cusumano, Ana; Macleod, Alison M; Jager, Kitty J

    2012-10-01

    Mortality on dialysis varies greatly worldwide, with patient-level factors explaining only a small part of this variation. The aim of this study was to examine the association of national-level macroeconomic indicators with the mortality of incident dialysis populations and explore potential explanations through renal service indicators, incidence of dialysis, and characteristics of the dialysis population. Aggregated unadjusted survival probabilities were obtained from 22 renal registries worldwide for patients starting dialysis in 2003-2005. General population age and health, macroeconomic indices, and renal service organization data were collected from secondary sources and questionnaires. Linear modeling with log-log transformation of the outcome variable was applied to establish factors associated with survival on dialysis. Two-year survival on dialysis ranged from 62.3% in Iceland to 89.8% in Romania. A higher gross domestic product per capita (hazard ratio=1.02 per 1000 US dollar increase), a higher percentage of gross domestic product spent on healthcare (1.10 per percent increase), and a higher intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population (i.e., general population-derived mortality risk of the dialysis population in that country standardized for age and sex; hazard ratio=1.04 per death per 10,000 person years) were associated with a higher mortality of the dialysis population. The incidence of dialysis and renal service indicators were not associated with mortality on dialysis. Macroeconomic factors and the intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population are associated with international differences in the mortality on dialysis. Renal service organizational factors and incidence of dialysis seem less important.

  19. The Influence of Fundamental and Macroeconomic Analysis on Stock Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hari Gursida

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of fundamental and macroeconomic analysis on stock price. The research was conducted at a coal company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Fundamental analysis measured by current ratio, debt to equity ratio (DER, earning per share (EPS, return on assets (ROA, and total assets turnover (TATO, while macroeconomic analysis is measured by inflation and exchange rate.  Current ratio (CR has a positive effect on Stock Price. Strengthening this level of liquidity can provide information to investors to decide to buy shares of companies that tend to be healthy and stable. Return on assets (ROA has a positive and significant influence on stock price. Efforts to maximize the level of profitability by increasing the value of return on assets can provide information to investors that investments invested in the company will provide good profit. The impact of stock prices will rise. While debt to equity ratio (DER, earning per share (EPS and total assets turnover (TATO have no effect on Stock Price.  Macroeconomic analysis shows: (a Inflation rate has no effect on stock price of coal company. This can be because the inflation rate in Indonesia is at the level of 6% -7% per year and included in the category of mild inflation. Mild inflation resulted in very slow economic growth, not affecting stock prices. The exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on coal company stock price. If the Rupiah is depreciated then the stock price of the coal company will decrease.

  20. Cosmetic surgery in times of recession: macroeconomics for plastic surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Lloyd M

    2002-10-01

    Periods of economic downturn place special demands on the plastic surgeon whose practice involves a large amount of cosmetic surgery. When determining strategy during difficult economic times, it is useful to understand the macroeconomic background of these downturns and to draw lessons from businesses in other service industries. Business cycles and monetary policy determine the overall environment in which plastic surgery is practiced. Plastic surgeons can take both defensive and proactive steps to maintain their profits during recessions and to prepare for the inevitable upturn. Care should also be taken when selecting pricing strategy during economic slowdowns.

  1. Did the US macroeconomic conditions affect Asian stock markets?

    OpenAIRE

    Seema Narayan; Paresh Kumar Narayan

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of US macroeconomic conditions—namely, exchange rate and short-term interest rate—on the stocks of seven Asian countries (China,India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea). Using daily data for the period 2000 to 2010, we divide the sample into pre-crisis period (pre-August 2007) and crisis period (post-August 2007) we find that in the short-run interest rate has a statistically insignificant effect on returns for all ...

  2. MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF BAD LOANS IN BALTIC COUNTRIES AND ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana DONATH

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The 2008–09 global crisis raised debates concerning the determinants of financial vulnerability. Among these, bad loans have been identified as significantly influencing financial imbalances. After a decade in which borrowing has constantly grown mainly because of the deregulation of financial markets, the crisis highlighted the importance of an effective credit risk management. The purpose of the paper is to study the evolution of bad loans ratio in relation with selected macroeconomic indicators in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and Romania.

  3. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on obesity in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, Ehsan

    2014-06-01

    The paper used longitudinal Canadian data from the National Population Health Survey to estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions measured by provincial unemployment rate on individual obesity and BMI. To control for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity, the study utilized the conditional fixed effect logit and fixed effects models. The study found that unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on the probability of being severely obese. The study also found that unemployment rate significantly increased BMI. However, the study did not find any significant impact of unemployment rate on the probability of being overweight or obese. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Macroeconomic Variables and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taylan Taner Doğan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the response of unemployment to selective macroeconomics shocks over period of 2000:Q1-2010:Q1. It is found that positive shocks to growth, growth in export and and inflation reduce unemployment. On the other hand, shocks to exchange rate, interbank interest rate and money supply increase unemployment. Our results are consistent with Phillips curve and Okun’s Law suggestion. Namely, negative relationship between output and unemployment and positive relationship between unemployment and inflation are found. Also, this study found consistent results with earlier literature.

  5. The Birth of the Regulated Company in the Macroeconomic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru BODISLAV

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This research analyzes the mode of evolution of an economy at macroeconomic level, backward-pyramidal evolution from the capitalism structure, the appearance of the free enterprise and the corporate form of business organizations in our free market based system, at microeconomic level.The purpose of this paper is to enter the understanding of the specificities of the plurality of facets of the governance process. The target of this research paper are privately owned companies, but held publicly (by social parts owners or shareholders and expressed through the state – corporation relation with its geo-social-political-economic influences.

  6. Simultaneous radiochemotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunst, J.; Sauer, R.

    1993-01-01

    Simultaneous radiochemotherapy (RCT) means the simultaneous application of radiotherapy and chemotherapy. The major objective of this approach is the improvement of local control. On the cellular level, three types of interactions may be distinguished: Additivity, synergism, and sensibilization. The main type of interaction seems to be a simple additive effect. The clinical effect of a simultaneous chemotherapy depends mainly on the cytotoxic action of the drug itself and not on radiosensibilization. Therefore, effective chemotherapeutic drugs are to be delivered in cytotoxic dosages in RCT protocols. Compromises in radiotherapy as the main modality should be avoided. Recent clinical data have shown that simultaneous radiochemotherapy may yield heigh remission rates in a number of tumor entities (e.g. anal cancer, bladder cancer, head and neck cancer). This seems to improve local control as compared to radiotherapy alone. In some tumors (e.g. head and neck, esophagus), survival may be improved also. However, several questions require future detailed clinical trials. These questions include the value of simultaneous radiochemotherapy compared to optimal fractionation schemes, the clear definition of subgroups of patients with benefit by radiochemotherapy and the optimal dose intensity of cytotoxic drugs. (orig.) [de

  7. Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Bel (Koen); R. Paap (Richard)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractForecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition

  8. Teaching Macroeconomics after the Crisis: A Survey among Undergraduate Instructors in Europe and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gärtner, Manfred; Griesbach, Björn; Jung, Florian

    2013-01-01

    The Great Recession raised questions of what and how macroeconomists teach at academic institutions around the globe, and what changes in the macroeconomics curriculum should be made. The authors conducted a survey of undergraduate macroeconomics instructors affiliated with colleges and universities in Europe and the United States at the end of…

  9. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  10. Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land: a case study of Argentina

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306645955; Smeets, E.M.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/311445217; Tabeau, A.; Hilbert, J.; Faaij, A.P.C.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural

  11. Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land—A case study of Argentina

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, Birka; Smeets, E.; Tabeau, Andrzej; Hilbert, Jorge; Faaij, André

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural

  12. Energy policies in a macroeconomic model: an analysis of energy taxes when oil prices decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capros, P.; Karadeloglou, P.; Mentzas, G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper attempts an analysis of energy and macroeconomic policy issues in oil-importing countries within the context of decreasing oil prices and macroeconomic modelling. A medium-term perspective is retained and the assumption is made that the economy experiences unemployment and excess capacity when the price declines. The analysis excludes any response elements that refer to long-term equilibria, optimum allocation of resources or welfare characterization of results which should be dealt with within the context of price adjusted equilibrium models. This paper adopts the approach of quantity adjusted neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models. The paper also inquires into the macroeconomic models currently used by the Commission of the European Communities. The analysis is carried out using the HGRV model which is a large-scale neo-Keynesian multisectoral macroeconomic model of the Greek economy. (UK)

  13. Economies: An Open Access Journal for the Field of Development Macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralf Fendel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Economies (ISSN 2227-7099 is a new international, peer-reviewed open access journal for the academic fields of development economics and macroeconomics. While the latter seems to be clearly defined, development economics is not, because it is related to nearly all traditional economic sub-disciplines such as macroeconomics, international trade and finance, as well as microeconomics and public finance. Typically, academic field journals of development economics cover all those economic sub-disciplines. Economies instead focuses mainly on the macroeconomic perspective of economic development and it intends to publish academic research that is of strong macroeconomic policy relevance. In general, contributions in Economies should foster understanding of the macroeconomic process of economic development, with the process of development not exclusively being reserved to what we typically call developing countries. Also, the group of developed economies is still developing in the sense of improving their living standards further.

  14. Testing the Goodwin growth-cycle macroeconomic dynamics in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, N. J.; Ribeiro, Marcelo B.

    2013-05-01

    This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin’s (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD). This is formed by the combination of the Gompertz curve, representing the overwhelming majority of the population (˜99%), with the Pareto power law, representing the tiny richest part (˜1%). In line with Goodwin’s original model, we identify the Gompertzian part with the workers and the Paretian component with the class of capitalists. Since the GPD parameters are obtained for each year and the Goodwin macroeconomics is a time evolving model, we use previously determined, and further extended here, Brazilian GPD parameters, as well as unemployment data, to study the time evolution of these quantities in Brazil from 1981 to 2009 by means of the Goodwin dynamics. This is done in the original Goodwin model and an extension advanced by Desai et al. (2006). As far as Brazilian data is concerned, our results show partial qualitative and quantitative agreement with both models in the studied time period, although the original one provides better data fit. Nevertheless, both models fall short of a good empirical agreement as they predict single center cycles which were not found in the data. We discuss the specific points where the Goodwin dynamics must be improved in order to provide a more realistic representation of the dynamics of economic systems.

  15. Macroeconomic conditions and health: Inspecting the transmission mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombo, Emilio; Rotondi, Valentina; Stanca, Luca

    2018-02-01

    We study the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and self-reported health in a large sample of Italian individuals, focusing on the mediating role played by health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, eating habits) and economic stress. Our findings indicate that, overall, higher local unemployment is negatively related to individuals' health conditions. A one percentage point increase in the province-level unemployment rate is associated with a significant increase in the probability of experiencing diabetes (0.03 percentage points), infarction (0.01), ulcer (0.06), cirrhosis (0.01) and nervous disorders (0.07), with a time lag that differs across individual health conditions. Employment status and educational level play a significant role as moderators of these relationships. Eating habits, in addition to economic stress, play a key role as mediators, by enhancing the negative relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health outcomes, while physical exercise is found to play a dampening role. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Macroeconomic impacts of natural gas introduction in Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caloghirou, Y.D.; Mourelatos, A.G.; Roboli, A.

    1996-01-01

    Input-output analysis has been applied to assess macroeconomic impacts of investment expenditures required for introduction of natural gas (NG) into the Greek energy system. The final demand vector was assembled from figures estimated in a prefeasibility study. A 12 x 12 input-output table was used to calculate relative changes in gross domestic product (GDP) for the entire economy, sectoral production and value-added, employment and wages. We show that construction of the national gas grid will significantly affect all five macroeconomic indicators during a period of eight years. Taking into account direct and indirect impacts, GDP will rise by 2.0% whereas employment and wages will increase by 1.6%. If imports are fully replaced by local produce, GDP will rise by 3.0% whereas employment and wages will increase by 2.4 and 2.3%, respectively. The relative change of production for five specified sectors is greater than 24% during the period 1993-2000. (Author)

  17. Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Białowolski

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely: the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price inflation. In order to select the set of the best regressors, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators (BACE is employed. The models are atheoretical (i.e. they do not reflect causal relationships postulated by the macroeconomic theory and the role of regressors is played by business and consumer tendency survey-based indicators. Additionally, survey-based indicators are included with a lag that enables to forecast the variables of interest (GDP, unemployment, and inflation for the four forthcoming quarters without the need to make any additional assumptions concerning the values of predictor variables in the forecast period.  Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators is a method allowing for full and controlled overview of all econometric models which can be obtained out of a particular set of regressors. In this paper authors describe the method of generating a family of econometric models and the procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out-of-sample forecasts of main economic variables for the quarters of 2011. The accuracy of the forecasts implies that there is still a need to search for new solutions in the atheoretical modelling.

  18. Mutual fund flows: an analysis of the main macroeconomic factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Moses Roquete

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes whether some macroeconomic factors (country risk, IBrX volatility and Interbank Certificate of Deposit are related to mutual fund flows for the period between January 2005 and August 2014. In order to investigate whether the flow series behaved differently during this period, the Chow test was conducted for September 2008 (the month in which the Lehman Brothers investment bank collapsed. The regressions were performed and the parameters were estimated through the OLS method for both periods, the first running from January 2005 to August 2008 and the second from September 2008 to August 2014. For the period between January 2005 and August 2008, all the variables, except for the Interbank Certificate of Deposit, proved significant, at a significance level of 10%. For the subsequent period, none of the variables proved significant and the R² was very low, which may merely indicate that investors failed to analyze the main macroeconomic variables for mutual fund allocations or redemptions and simply considered other aspects, such as manager performance.

  19. Keynesian Theory in "Macroeconomics" Course for non-core faculties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatyana Ivanovna Kurnosova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the issues related to the teaching of Keynesian theory within the scope of macroeconomics course at the faculties of non-economic professions. It highlights the relevance of Keynes' ideas, the importance of the system approach typical for Keynesian theory that is in particular reflected in the understanding of the connection between economics large-scale processes on the whole and micro-level phenomena. The authors draw special attention to the importance of selecting the sections of Keynesian theory to be included in the economics short course in order to avoid overlooking the scientific significance of the material/data and to retain the essential achievements of the scientist. It refers to the balance of non-financial sector and labor market, to the idea of joint equilibrium in goods and money markets. Particular attention is dedicated to the recognition of the roles of both market and government stated by Keynes. This essential feature of the theory should be reflected in providing educational material. The authors underline that while studying the issues related to such terms as consumption, capital accumulation, investment and money demand, it is necessary to point out the role of psychological factors. These aspects of Keynesian analysis are of key importance for the economic processes' construction. Moreover, they have predetermined the direction of macroeconomics studies for the subsequent decades. Special attention in the article is also paid to the students’ motivation as one of the conditions for mastering the material taught.

  20. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENSE SPENDING AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur OZSOY

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the rate of Defense Spendings in the GDP, and the growth rate of GDP, and the portion of current accounts in GDP and Annual Inflation Rate are examined with getting the annual data between the 1980-2006 years, and using VAR model for Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Turkey. In course of this examination, the results of Granger Casuality and Impulse-Response Functions and Variance Decomposition were used. The focus point of our study is for the reason of defense spendings are effective on macroeconomic variables that while Egypt and Israel has uni-directional Granger causality from the defense spendings to inflation, for other countries there couldn`t be found any Granger causality. On the other hand when we look at the impulse response functions, in case of a shock of defense spending as a percentage of GNP, while the rate of Israel`s inflation and Current account as a percentage of GNP are affected by the pozitive direction , Turkey`s growth rate is affected negatively. For Egypt and Jordan, the significiant effects on defense spendings according to macroeconomic variables couldn`t be found any significiant effects.

  1. Nonlinear Dirac Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Khim Ng

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available We construct nonlinear extensions of Dirac's relativistic electron equation that preserve its other desirable properties such as locality, separability, conservation of probability and Poincaré invariance. We determine the constraints that the nonlinear term must obey and classify the resultant non-polynomial nonlinearities in a double expansion in the degree of nonlinearity and number of derivatives. We give explicit examples of such nonlinear equations, studying their discrete symmetries and other properties. Motivated by some previously suggested applications we then consider nonlinear terms that simultaneously violate Lorentz covariance and again study various explicit examples. We contrast our equations and construction procedure with others in the literature and also show that our equations are not gauge equivalent to the linear Dirac equation. Finally we outline various physical applications for these equations.

  2. [Efficiency of medical and economic activities of a sanatorium-and-spa facility in the active phase of the public health system reform under macroeconomic instability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poliakov, B A; Kizeev, M V

    2010-01-01

    Results of a comprehensive study have demonstrated that the reform of the public health system currently underway in this country provides conditions for the extension of medical care based at sanatorium-and-spa facilities with simultaneous rise in relevant expenses. Bearing in mind the unstable macroeconomic situation, this requires thorough monitoring medical and economic activities of health resorts for the purpose of enhancing cost efficiency. The goal of optimization can be achieved by increasing competitive capacity based on strict control of expenditures and income redistribution for financing the most promising projects.

  3. A study on macroeconomic cost of CCS in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji-Whan; Kim, Yoon Kyung

    2015-04-01

    CCS is an important measure for mitigating the problem of World Climate Change and already several projects are entered the step of commercialization. The benefits of CCS implementation ultimately depends on the alleviation level of CO2 on earth because it is caused by the mitigation of the World Climate Change problem. Thus it is possible not to coincide at same time between starting the CCS and getting the benefits. Considering the high costs of CCS, the time mismatch between imposing the costs and getting the benefits is apt to impose some heavy burden on the individual national economy. For this reason, at the political decision-making, the policy makers should consider the macroeconomic effects. Meanwhile, Korean electricity market's supply side is comprised of competitive production and a sole distributor(public enterprise) and then electricity is supplied by a single price structure(administered pricing). Under this condition, if CCS is introduced to power setor, electric charges must be increased and production costs will go high. High production costs will have unfavourable effects on disposable income, price level, purchasing power and so on. In order to minimize these effects, policy makers have to consider the economic effects of introducing CCS. This study estimates the microscopic cost of CCS using ICCSEM 2.0 methodology made by CO2CRC and after that, the macroeconomic effects of introducing CCS is estimated on the basis of microscopic cost estimating results. The macroeconomic effects of CCS applied to Power Generation sector are estimated using macroeconometrics model and Input-Output analysis. A macroeconometrics model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the national economy. This model is usually applied to examine the dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, the level of prices and so forth. Introducing

  4. Report on modelling the macroeconomic competitiveness impacts of EU climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This report details the results of a study carried out by Oxford Economics on the macroeconomic impacts of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on competitiveness in different sectors and different Member States. An economic model was used to assess the impacts of carbon pricing, building on previous work that looked at the effects on the UK economy. The model was used to estimate the impact on competitiveness and output associated with various carbon prices and assumptions for the proposed third EU ETS trading period (2013-2023) by sector for all countries. The model covered 30 sectors for each of the 27 EU Member states plus the USA, Japan and China. The report describes the EU model methodology (direct cost effects, second-round cost effects, cost effects without substitution, cost effects after substitution, pass through to prices, and output effects) and the key results in terms of: impacts of carbon-reduction policies unilateral EU action, sectoral impacts, electricity generation sector only; the non-power sector in the ETS; global action; developed world action; and a summary across all scenarios. The three annexes set out the UK Energy Industry Model (UKEIM), model equations for the EU-wide model and modelling assumptions for electricity generation

  5. Why Models Matter: The Making and Unmaking of Governability in Macroeconomic Discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Braun

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Like other branches of economic theory, macroeconomics has the potential not only to represent but also to perform the economy. This performative potential is greatest when a ‘governability paradigm’ is established within macroeconomic discourse – that is, when theory has produced both a sense of understanding and practical control over the economy. In such periods, macroeconomic models become embedded in the ideational infrastructure of the economy, making possible both the interpretation of past data and the formation of expectations regarding the future. Viewing macroeconomics as a quest for governability, this article traces the formation of two distinct governability paradigms: the neoclassical synthesis paradigm of the post-war era, and the new neoclassical synthesis paradigm of the 1990s and 2000s. It shows how in both cases macroeconomic discourse went through three phases: first, the formulation of a basic vision of the economy; second, the formalisation and operationalisation of this vision; and third, the development of methods to measure, estimate, and predict associated variables. These shifts in macroeconomics and its models matter because the establishment of a governability paradigm tends to produce overconfidence not only among economists and policymakers, but also among market actors. Macroeconomic discourse itself therefore contributes to the cycles of boom and bust in modern capitalist economies.

  6. The macroeconomic effects of ambitious energy efficiency policy in Germany – Combining bottom-up energy modelling with a non-equilibrium macroeconomic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartwig, Johannes; Kockat, Judit; Schade, Wolfgang; Braungardt, Sibylle

    2017-01-01

    Energy efficiency is one of the fastest and most cost-effective contributions to a sustainable, secure and affordable energy system. Furthermore, the so-called “non-energy benefits”, “co-benefits” or “multiple benefits” of energy efficiency are receiving increased interest from policy makers and the scientific community. Among the various non-energy benefits of energy efficiency initiatives, the macroeconomic benefits play an important role. Our study presents a detailed analysis of the long-term macroeconomic effects of German energy efficiency policy including the industry and service sectors as well as residential energy demand. We quantify the macroeconomic effects of an ambitious energy efficiency scenario by combining bottom-up models with an extended dynamic input-output model. We study sectoral shifts within the economy regarding value added and employment compared to the baseline scenario. We provide an in-depth analysis of the effects of energy efficiency policy on consumers, individual industry sectors, and the economy as a whole. We find significant positive macroeconomic effects resulting from energy efficiency initiatives, with growth effects for both GDP and employment ranging between 0.88% and 3.38%. Differences in sectoral gains lead to a shift in the economy. Our methodological approach provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the macroeconomic benefits of energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Integration of detailed sectoral models for energy demand with macroeconomic model. • Detailed assessment of effects of ambitious energy efficiency targets for Germany. • Positive macroeconomic effects can support policymaking and reduce uncertainty.

  7. Macroeconomic Stability in a Model with Bond Transaction Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Marzo

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Cochrane (2014 shows that high-powered money balances and short-term government bonds can be considered as perfect substitutes for the U.S economy during the past twenty years. We build on this claim and consider a variant of the standard cashless new-Keynesian model with two types of government bonds, which can be thought of as short- and long-term bonds. The first one has a macroeconomic role in the sense that it provides transaction services in addition to generating a yield. The other type of government bond pays only an interest rate. Consistent with previous findings, the Taylor principle is not a panacea for equilibrium determinacy in a model without money. When the government bond market matters beyond the need for fiscal solvency, monetary policy rules do not need to comply with the Taylor principle for unique equilibria to exist.

  8. Analysis Of Japans Economy Based On 2014 From Macroeconomics Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Mohammad Rafiqul Islam

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Japan is the worlds third largest economy. But currently economic situations of Japan are not stable. It is not increasing as expected. Since 2013 it was world second largest economy but Japan loosed its placed to China in 2014 due to slow growth of important economic indicators. By using the basic Keynesian model we will provide a detailed analysis of the short and long run impacts of the changes for Japans real GDP rate of unemployment and inflation rate. We demonstrated a detailed use of the 45-degree diagram or the AD-IA model and other economic analysis of the macroeconomic principles that underlie the model and concepts. Finally we will recommend the government with a change in fiscal policy what based on the analysis by considering what might be achieved with a fiscal policy response and the extent to which any impact on the stock of public debt might be a consideration

  9. MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES IN POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Bieniasz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this work is to analyse the phenomenon of enterprises’ bankruptcy in Poland in 2004-2013 and attempt to build regression models defining the relationship between the number of bankrupted companies and selected macroeconomic parameters of the national economy. The analysis is based on Coface Poland reports presenting the phenomenon of bankruptcy in Poland of branches, provinces, legal forms of companies and types of bankruptcy proceedings. Studies have shown that the greatest risk of bankruptcy refers to metals production and fabricated metal products enterprises, manufacture of food products and beverages, wholesale trade, construction, micro and small enterprises, enterprises under the age of 10 years and companies from Mazovia region, Silesia and Lower Silesia. The estimated parameters of the regression models showed that the number of bankruptcies in Poland is strongly determined i.a. by the number of registered companies, GDP growth, dynamics of changes in fixed capital formation and changes in foreign exchange rates.

  10. MACROECONOMIC POLICY OF CURRENCY WAR: METHODS OF INVESTIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bekareva S. V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the methods of investigation of a modern international monetary and finance field for some countries which would participate in currency war. Usually currency wars are used in order to achieve some competitive advantages in international trade relations. Real effective exchange rate index was used as the key instrument in our analysis. It reflects a nominal exchange rate and the main trade partners’ structure as well. Moreover, some macroeconomic and finance indices were used. The methods of investigation are cluster and panel data analyses. The period of investigation is 1990-2012. The result of analysis is connected with showing differences in countries’ possibility of implementing monetary policy instruments to improve their competitiveness.

  11. Sectoral networks and macroeconomic tail risks in an emerging economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Pedro P; López, Ricardo; Jiménez, Carlos

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims to explain the macroeconomic volatility due to microeconomic shocks to one or several sectors, recognizing the non-symmetrical relation in the interaction among the Ecuadorian economic sectors. To grasp the economic structure of this emerging economy, a statistical analysis of network data is applied to the respective input-output matrix of Ecuador from 1975 until 2012. We find periods wherein the production of domestic inputs is concentrated in a few suppliers; for example, in 2010, the concentration significantly affects sectors and their downstream providers, thus influencing aggregate volatility. Compared to the US productive structure, this emerging economy presents fewer sectors and degree distributions with less extreme fat-tail behavior. In this simpler economy, we continue to find a link between microeconomic shocks and aggregate volatility. Two new theoretical propositions are introduced to formalize our results.

  12. Spatial Durbin model analysis macroeconomic loss due to natural disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusrini, D. E.; Mukhtasor

    2015-03-01

    Magnitude of the damage and losses caused by natural disasters is huge for Indonesia, therefore this study aimed to analyze the effects of natural disasters for macroeconomic losses that occurred in 115 cities/districts across Java during 2012. Based on the results of previous studies it is suspected that it contains effects of spatial dependencies in this case, so that the completion of this case is performed using a regression approach to the area, namely Analysis of Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The obtained significant predictor variable is population, and predictor variable with a significant weighting is the number of occurrences of disasters, i.e., disasters in the region which have an impact on other neighboring regions. Moran's I index value using the weighted Queen Contiguity also showed significant results, meaning that the incidence of disasters in the region will decrease the value of GDP in other.

  13. A Macroeconomic Model of Credit Risk in Uruguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Illanes

    Full Text Available In this paper we evaluate credit risk of the economy as a whole, aiming at the study of the financial stability. This analysis uses as proxy the credit granted by the banking system. We use a non-linear parametric model based on Merton's structural framework for the analysis of the risk associated to a loan portfolio. In this model, default occurs when the return of an economic agent falls under certain threshold which depends on different macroeconomic variables. We use this model to assess the credit risk module in stress tests for the local banking system. We also estimate the "elasticities" of credit categories correspondig to corporate credit and consumer credit, both in national currency and american dollars. We obtain the parameters for the model using maximum likelihood, where the likelihood function contains a random latent factor which is assumed to follow a normal distribution.

  14. Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflation in Ghana From 1990 – 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Gyebi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to identify the macroeconomic factors responsible for inflation in Ghana for the period 1990 to 2009. For this purpose, the time series model is selected based on various diagnostic, evaluation and selection criteria. It can be concluded that the model has sufficient predictive powers and the findings are well in line with those of other studies. The research findings would show that real output and money supply are the strongest forces exerting pressure on the price level to move up the exchange rate depreciation and implementation of ERP helped reduce the level of inflation in Ghana giving evidence that the ERP achieved its basic objective of reducing inflationary trend in Ghana.

  15. An account of new developmentalism and its structuralist macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate.

  16. MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OSAZEE GODWIN OMOROKUNWA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock price volatility and few macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate, GDP and interest rate. Annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2011 was used for this study. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH model was used in the empirical analysis. The findings of the study showed that stock prices in Nigeria are volatile. And that past information in the market have effect on stock price volatility in Nigeria. In addition, the study showed that interest rate and exchange have a weak effect on stock price volatility while inflation is the main determinant of stock price volatility in Nigeria. The authors recommend that inflation should be targeted as the main monetary policy aimed at directing the stock market.

  17. THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE MOVEMENT OF CROBEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojan Tomic

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Many research showed a high degree of correlation between the US and European capital markets, partly due to industrial‒financial linkages of the United States and Europe, and partly due to the influence of psychological factors on the behavior of individuals, and the concept of behavioral finance. However, it can be assumed that the movement of the value of an observed index does not depend solely on the change of values of the S & P 500 index. Accordingly and in line with rational economic theory, this paper examines the link between changes in the value of selected macroeconomic indicators and the value of the main share Croatian capital market index CROBEX. The results indicate that of the nine initially observed variables, movement of CROBEX can be described and further explained by changes in the value of average wages, parity rate and dollar, the kuna and the euro and the kuna and the Swiss franc.

  18. Sectoral networks and macroeconomic tail risks in an emerging economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Ricardo; Jiménez, Carlos

    2018-01-01

    This paper aims to explain the macroeconomic volatility due to microeconomic shocks to one or several sectors, recognizing the non-symmetrical relation in the interaction among the Ecuadorian economic sectors. To grasp the economic structure of this emerging economy, a statistical analysis of network data is applied to the respective input-output matrix of Ecuador from 1975 until 2012. We find periods wherein the production of domestic inputs is concentrated in a few suppliers; for example, in 2010, the concentration significantly affects sectors and their downstream providers, thus influencing aggregate volatility. Compared to the US productive structure, this emerging economy presents fewer sectors and degree distributions with less extreme fat-tail behavior. In this simpler economy, we continue to find a link between microeconomic shocks and aggregate volatility. Two new theoretical propositions are introduced to formalize our results. PMID:29293567

  19. What does Europe pay for clean energy?-Review of macroeconomic simulation studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dannenberg, Astrid; Mennel, Tim; Moslener, Ulf

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the macroeconomic costs of environmental regulation in European energy markets on the basis of existing macroeconomic simulation studies. The analysis comprises the European emssions trading scheme, energy taxes, measures in the transport sector and the promotion of renewable energy sources. We find that these instruments affect the European economy, in particular the energy-intensive industries and the industries that produce internationally tradeable goods. From a macroeconomic point of view, however, the costs of environmental regulation appear to be modest. The underlying environmental targets and the efficient design of regulation are key determinants for the cost burden

  20. The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Caruso, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of macroeconomic "news" (market now-cast errors related to the flow of data releases on macroeconomic fundamentals) on the daily USD/EUR exchange rate. I consider a large number of real-time macroeconomic announcements from both the US and the euro-zone, and the related market expectations as reported by Bloomberg. For the euro-zone I also study country level announcements for the four biggest economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). The results for the whole s...

  1. SMEs Growth in the Czech Republic: Some Macroeconomic Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Nedu Osakwe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Small and medium enterprises (SMEs are seen as a vehicle for employment generation, wealth creation, economic growth and development in countries that have a sound investment climate. SMEs, account for approximately one-third of GDP, over 50% of the value added, 99% of the share of total registered enterprises, and represent 60% of total employment in the Czech Republic. In the light of this background, the paper explores the influence of some macroeconomic variables on SMEs growth in the Czech Republic for the period 1995–2013. In order to assess the impacts of these critical macroeconomic variables (e.g., rate of unemployment, economic growth, credit provided by the financial sector on SMEs growth, we employed an econometric technique. Our findings suggest a concave relationship between unemployment and SMEs growth in the Czech Republic. More precisely, it signifies that beyond a turning point, unemployment is likely to slow down SMEs growth in the country. Our results further hint at a positive relationship between economic growth and SMEs growth. However, our empirical estimates showed an insignificant relationship between domestic credit provided by the financial sector and SMEs growth in the country. The government of the Czech Republic should continue to provide an enabling investment climate and support for bolstering a sustainable SMEs development within the country. Similar to the extant literature, we have also implored the Czech government to do more with regard to the provision of easier access and affordable credits/loans to SMEs. We have also called for the reduction of bureaucratic bottlenecks that might have to do with SMEs legislations in the country.

  2. A Panel Data Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Firms’ Shares Performance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Ogunmuyiwa

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on whether the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the stock market is positive or negative or of no effect by analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and performance of quoted firms on the Nigeria Stock Exchange market. A sample of fifty (50 quoted firms across eight (8 major sectors of the market was selected for the study. The static panel regression technique was employed on monthly data sourced from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN between 2007:1 and 2013:12. Results from empirical findings reveal that varying impacts exist between the macroeconomic indicators and firm share returns in Nigeria. It goes further to affirm that inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate are the major significant macroeconomic indicators driving firm share returns in Nigeria.

  3. The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.J. de Zwart (Gerben); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents empirical evidence that security analysts do not efficiently use publicly available macroeconomic information in their earnings forecasts for emerging market stocks. Analysts completely ignore forecasts on political stability, while these provide valuable information

  4. Macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility: A case of South Asian countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yahya Waqas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Macroeconomic factors play a pivotal role in attracting foreign investment in the country. This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility in South Asian countries. The monthly data is collected for the period ranging from 2000 to 2012 for four Asian countries i.e. China, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka because monthly data is ideal for measuring portfolio investment volatility. For measuring volatility in foreign portfolio investment, GARCH (1,1 is used because shocks are responded quickly by this model. The results reveal that there exists significant relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility. Thus, less volatility in international portfolio flows is associated with high interest rate, currency depreciation, foreign direct investment, lower inflation, and higher GDP growth rate of the host country. Thus findings of this study suggest that foreign portfolio investors focus on stable macroeconomic environment of country.

  5. Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Koroliuk Tatiana Aleksandrovna

    2014-01-01

    The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

  6. The Influence of Global Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Values: A Sector Level Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Şerife Özlen

    2014-01-01

    Investors and policy makers should carefully analyze stock returns and their possible relationships with microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in both local and global arena. Since the markets are increasingly becoming global, the outcomes may be more important for international factors. Therefore, this study aims to identify the relationship between selected international macroeconomic variables (FTSE-100 England market index, GDAX Germany market index, NYSE Composite market index, Gold pr...

  7. USE OF THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL IN MACRO-ECONOMICAL ANALYSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin ANGHELACHE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the fundamental aspects of the linear regression, as a toolbox which can be used in macroeconomic analyses. The article describes the estimation of the parameters, the statistical tests used, the homoscesasticity and heteroskedasticity. The use of econometrics instrument in macroeconomics is an important factor that guarantees the quality of the models, analyses, results and possible interpretation that can be drawn at this level.

  8. Impact of the macroeconomic factors on university budgeting the US and Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogomolova, Arina; Balk, Igor; Ivachenko, Natalya; Temkin, Anatoly

    2017-10-01

    This paper discuses impact of macroeconomics factor on the university budgeting. Modern developments in the area of data science and machine learning made it possible to utilise automated techniques to address several problems of humankind ranging from genetic engineering and particle physics to sociology and economics. This paper is the first step to create a robust toolkit which will help universities sustain macroeconomic challenges utilising modern predictive analytics techniques.

  9. Business failures, macroeconomic risk and the effect of recessions on long-run growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santoro, Emiliano; Gaffeo, Edoardo

    2009-01-01

    relationship between transitory disturbances and productivity growth. Panel ECM estimates suggest that macroeconomic risk factors impinge on business failures on the same direction both in the short and in the long-run, and that the adjustment to the steady-state relationship is quite slow. Thus, our findings...... lend support to the risk-aversion theory of productivity growth and indicate that bankruptcy risks play a significant role in the propagation of macroeconomic shocks....

  10. Granger Causality Between The Stock Market Index and Macroeconomic Variables. A Study of Malaysia and Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Sircar, Shadee Mosaddek

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationships that may be present between the stock market index of developing countries and their macroeconomic variables based on the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. The countries Malaysia and Singapore are chosen for the purpose of this paper, where FTSE KLCI index and the FTSE STI index are used to represent the stock market performances respectively for each country. The four macroeconomic variables analyzed and used in this paper are Co...

  11. The credit counterparts of broad money : a structural base for macroeconomic policy

    OpenAIRE

    Steele, Gerald

    2014-01-01

    Tautological structures bring clarity to arguments in macroeconomics: familiar structures relate to the circulation of money, the circular flow of real income, and the balance of international payments. Less familiar is a structure incorporating all aspects of macroeconomic policy interventions. The origins and use of the credit counterparts of broad money are examined in the context of the application of UK monetary policy in the period since 1945.

  12. The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Market Risk Premium : Study of Sweden, Germany and Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Tahmidi, Arad; Sheludchenko, Dmytro; Allahyari Westlund, Samira

    2011-01-01

    ABSTRACT Title The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Market Premium. Study of Sweden, Germany and Canada Authors Samira Allahyari Westlund Arad Tahmidi Dmytro Sheludchenko Supervisor Christos Papahristodoulou Key words Macroeconomic, market risk premium, GDP, inflation, money supply, primary net lending and net borrowing, regression analysis. Institution Mälardalen University School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology Box 883, SE-721 23 Västerås Sweden Course Bachelor The...

  13. Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Unemployment Rates in Nigeria, Implications for Attaining Inclusive Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Nwosa

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examined the effect of macroeconomic policies on unemployment and poverty rates in Nigeria from 1980 to 2013 with implication to achieving inclusive growth. The inability of macroeconomic policies in addressing the rising issues unemployment and poverty rates in Nigeria despite the impressive economic growth experience over the last decades has increasingly called for the need for the pursuance of inclusive growth to address the social issues of unemployment and poverty rate. Previous studies have not considered the extent to which macroeconomic policies affects unemployment and poverty rate in Nigeria, and the implication of this relationship to the attainment of inclusive growth in Nigeria. The study adopts the Ordinary Least Square (OLS technique. The study observed that among macroeconomic policy variables only exchange rate significantly influenced unemployment rate while only fiscal policy significantly influenced and poverty rate. This implies that present macroeconomic policies in Nigeria do not guarantee the attainment of inclusive growth in Nigeria. The contribution of the paper is that to achieve inclusive growth that guarantees high employment and reduced poverty rate, there is the need for a re-examination of macroeconomic policy management in Nigeria.

  14. The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, T.; Dagoumas, A. [Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9PE (United Kingdom); Rubin, J. [School of Economics, University of Maine, 5782 Winslow Hall, Orono, ME 04469-5782 (United States)

    2009-11-15

    This paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the global economy arising from energy-efficiency policies. Such policies are expected to be a leading component of climate policy portfolios being proposed and adopted in order to achieve climate stabilisation targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050, such as the G8 50% reduction target by 2050. We apply the global 'New Economics' or Post Keynesian model E3MG, developing the version reported in IPCC AR4 WG3. The rebound effect refers to the idea that some or all of the expected reductions in energy consumption as a result of energy-efficiency improvements are offset by an increasing demand for energy services, arising from reductions in the effective price of energy services resulting from those improvements. As policies to stimulate energy-efficiency improvements are a key part of climate-change policies, the likely magnitude of any rebound effect is of great importance to assessing the effectiveness of those policies. The literature distinguishes three types of rebound effect from energy-efficiency improvements: direct, indirect and economy-wide. The macroeconomic rebound effect, which is the focus of this paper, is the combination of the indirect and economy-wide effects. Estimates of the effects of no-regrets efficiency policies are reported by the International Energy Agency in World Energy Outlook, 2006, and synthesised in the IPCC AR4 WG3 report. We analyse policies for the transport, residential and services buildings and industrial sectors of the economy for the post-2012 period, 2013-2030. The estimated direct rebound effect, implicit in the IEA WEO/IPCC AR4 estimates, is treated as exogenous, based on estimates from the literature, globally about 10%. The total rebound effect, however, is 31% by 2020 rising to 52% by 2030. The total effect includes the direct effect and the effects of (1) the lower cost of energy on energy demand in the three broad sectors as well as of (2) the extra consumers

  15. Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

    2007-01-01

    How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

  16. The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, T.; Dagoumas, A.; Rubin, J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the global economy arising from energy-efficiency policies. Such policies are expected to be a leading component of climate policy portfolios being proposed and adopted in order to achieve climate stabilisation targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050, such as the G8 50% reduction target by 2050. We apply the global 'New Economics' or Post Keynesian model E3MG, developing the version reported in IPCC AR4 WG3. The rebound effect refers to the idea that some or all of the expected reductions in energy consumption as a result of energy-efficiency improvements are offset by an increasing demand for energy services, arising from reductions in the effective price of energy services resulting from those improvements. As policies to stimulate energy-efficiency improvements are a key part of climate-change policies, the likely magnitude of any rebound effect is of great importance to assessing the effectiveness of those policies. The literature distinguishes three types of rebound effect from energy-efficiency improvements: direct, indirect and economy-wide. The macroeconomic rebound effect, which is the focus of this paper, is the combination of the indirect and economy-wide effects. Estimates of the effects of no-regrets efficiency policies are reported by the International Energy Agency in World Energy Outlook, 2006, and synthesised in the IPCC AR4 WG3 report. We analyse policies for the transport, residential and services buildings and industrial sectors of the economy for the post-2012 period, 2013-2030. The estimated direct rebound effect, implicit in the IEA WEO/IPCC AR4 estimates, is treated as exogenous, based on estimates from the literature, globally about 10%. The total rebound effect, however, is 31% by 2020 rising to 52% by 2030. The total effect includes the direct effect and the effects of (1) the lower cost of energy on energy demand in the three broad sectors as well as of (2) the extra consumers' expenditure

  17. The Macroeconomic Framework of Support Analysis for Sustainable Businesses Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Mitrut

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The state of satisfaction of an economy results from the quality of the economic products it produces and consumes, in agreement with assuring environment protection, as a source of producing present and future economic goods, and with intensive utilising of human capital, as a source of innovation growth. Knowledge transfer happens in a sustainable economy, whose principles are rational use of resources, limiting of waste, protection, for enabling future generations to have also access to resources. The present research is based on a multifactorial liniar regression model which outlines the direct correlation between the dependent variable welfare and the independent variable of concentration measured by the Gini coefficient of wealth concentration, on the one hand, and by the GDP level, on the other hand, at the level of year 2012. The aim of this research is to identify the correlation between the indicator of quality of life satisfaction or of the welfare function at the level of EU 2012, and the assurance of a macroeconomic framework for sustainable business development.

  18. Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunado, Juncal; Jo, Soojin; Perez de Gracia, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of structural oil shocks in four of the top oil-consuming Asian economies, using a VAR model. We identify three different structural oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. The main results suggest that economic activity and prices respond very differently to oil price shocks depending on their types. In particular, an oil supply shock has a limited impact, while a demand shock driven by global economic activity has a significant positive effect in all four Asian countries examined. Our finding also includes that policy tools such as interest rates and exchange rates help mitigating the effects of supply shocks in Japan and Korea; however, they can be more actively used in response to demands shocks. - Highlights: • We analyze the effects of three structural oil price shocks on Asian economies. • Supply shocks have limited impact on the economic activity of Asian economies examined. • Demand shocks due to economic activity boosts GDP of all economies. • CPIs in India and Indonesia were only marginally affected by oil price shocks. • Monetary and exchange rate tools help mitigating supply shocks in Korea and Japan.

  19. Safeguarding against substandard/counterfeit drugs: mitigating a macroeconomic pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertheimer, Albert I; Norris, Jeremiah

    2009-03-01

    Counterfeiting and the sale of substandard pharmaceutical products can no longer be ignored. At 10% of global trade, counterfeiting is affecting many countries, causing serious downstream expenses and resource shortages. To describe the nature and impact of drug product counterfeiting and substandard product sale and to present strategies that may have value in ameliorating these phenomena. A literature review was conducted, supplemented by interviews of key leaders/experts in the field and the search of relevant web sites. All of the data were combined, integrated, and coordinated to present the complete picture of this problem. In addition to known corruption in some of the least developed countries, the trail through developed countries was detected. This report identifies means to detect faulty products and describes efforts toward resisting and ending these corrupt practices. Counterfeit drugs, if not stopped, can be responsible for a macroeconomic pandemic where major portions of some populations may be too ill to work and where the health sector resources are completely overwhelmed, as with the case of HIV/AIDS.

  20. Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Ghil, Michael

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the macroeconomic response to natural disasters by using an endogenous business cycle (EnBC) model in which cyclical behavior arises from the investment-profit instability. Our model exhibits a larger response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions. This apparently paradoxical result can be traced to the disasters amplifying pre-existing disequilibria during expansions, while the existence of unused resources during recessions damps the exogenous shocks. It thus appears that high-growth periods are also highly vulnerable to supply-side shocks. In our EnBC model, the average production loss due to a set of disasters distributed at random in time is highly sensitive to the dynamical characteristics of the impacted economy. Larger economic flexibility allows for a more efficient and rapid response to supply-side shocks and reduces production losses. On the other hand, too high a flexibility can lead to vulnerability phases that cause average production losses to soar. These results raise questions about the assessment of climate change damages or natural disaster losses that are based purely on long-term growth models. (author)

  1. Macroeconomic effects and benefits of different power generation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maeenpaeae, I.; Tervo, H.

    1994-01-01

    The report compares the overall economic effects and benefits of different power station technologies using the FMS long-term simulation model for the Finnish economy. Special emphasis is placed on domestic fuels and new technologies that are on the average of commercialization. The overall economic benefits are compared as such and also assuming the implementation of targets for reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Without environmental targets nuclear power, natural gas combined cycle and coal gasification combined cycle were shown to be macroeconomically the most profitable means of generating electricity. For the municipal cogeneration of heat and power, a natural gas diesel plant was the most advantageous, followed by solid fuel gasification combined cycle plants. Upon implementation of CO 2 -emission reduction targets nuclear power would remain the most beneficial alternative, but the benefits of wood and wind power rises would be nearly as great. For municipal cogeneration, the wood gasification combined cycle type power plant surpasses gas diesel and the relative benefits of the fluidized bed combustion of wood also increases. (7 refs., 9 tabs.)

  2. Financing the response to AIDS: some fiscal and macroeconomic considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haacker, Markus

    2008-07-01

    This article examines the international response to AIDS from a fiscal perspective: first the financing of the international response to AIDS, especially the role of external financing, and second, a more comprehensive perspective on the costs of the national response to AIDS relevant for fiscal policy. The second half of the article focuses on the effectiveness of the response to AIDS. We find that there is little basis for concerns about macroeconomic constraints to scaling up, in light of the moderate scale of AIDS-related aid flows relative to overall aid. Regarding sectoral constraints, the picture is more differentiated. Many countries with high prevalence rates have also achieved high rates of access to treatment, but most of these are middle-income countries. Our econometric analysis credits external aid as a key factor that has enabled higher-prevalence countries to cope with the additional demands for health services. At the same time, gross domestic product per capita and health sector capacities are important determinants of access to treatment.

  3. Macroeconomic determinants of savings in Egypt "Statistical Model"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanaa Abdelaty Hasan Esmail

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Like lot of countries, aggregate consumption constitutes a major portion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP in Egypt. Consumption decisions determine savings decisions. In long term growth literature, differences in long term growth had been explained to a large extent by differences in the rates of savings which also determine a country’s investment in productive capacity, human capital and socio-economic infrastructure. In this study, we analyse macroeconomic determinants of savings in Egypt using Ordinary multiple regression. Our results indicate that national savings rate is positively related with real GDP growth rate. This suggests that saving is a positive function of income. The evidence suggests that national savings rate is negatively related with federal debt growth and inflation. This hints towards crowding out of private sector investment through decline in savings rate as a result of government’s indebtedness. Finally, negative association between savings rate and inflation implies that the consumer is rational and makes decisions based on his perceptions when it comes to allocating the lifetime resources over the period of his life. Increase in inflation dampens the incentive to save and people respond rationally which is made evident by the negative sign on inflation coefficient in our model.

  4. Macroeconomic Forecast in Regional Strategies: The Example of Khabarovsk Territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the methodological and instrumental problems of forecasting medium-term dynamics of a region’s socio-economic development as part of constructing the region’s socio-economic development strategy. The authors present results of constructing the system of models of different classes integrated in a single model complex. The model complex is based on the synthesis of methods of intersectoral analysis and dynamic optimization and consists of four The article was supported by the FEB RAS Program of Fundamental Research ‘Far East’ (Subprogram 8. predictive-analytical modules: a aggregate demand generation, b estimation of intersectoral interactions, c resource constraints testing d estimation of standard of living indicators. The modules are interconnected with horizontal communication channels activated within one time cycle (step or year and vertical communication channels activated between different time cycles. The authors test the model complex on the data of Khabarovsk Territory. The results of the study include quantitative assessments of macroeconomic and social parameters projections in the context of stages and scenarios of socio-economic development of the region

  5. Open Economy, Institutional Quality, and Environmental Performance: A Macroeconomic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amaryllis Mavragani

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available As the subject of how economic development affects the quality of the natural environment has gained great momentum, this paper focuses on examining the extent to which the openness of a market economy and the quality of the institution affect environmental performance. The majority of the current studies focus on the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the level of economic growth. This paper addresses this question by relating environmental (“Environmental Performance Index” to macroeconomic (Gross Domestic Product per capita, “Open Markets Index” and governance indicators (“Worldwide Governance Indicators”. The sample consists of 75 countries, including all G20 and EU members, comprising “more than 90% of global trade and investment”. Findings show that the Environmental Performance Index is positively correlated to each of the (institutional indicators, so as to confirm that the selected indices are consistent with previous studies, suggesting that environmental performance increases in line with economic development and that good governance increases a country’s levels of environmental protection. By applying factor analysis, an empirical model of the Environmental Performance Index is estimated, suggesting that there is a significant positive correlation between a country’s economic growth, the openness of an economy, high levels of effective governance, and its environmental performance.

  6. On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivasan Palamalai

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate (IR, and exchange rate (EXR in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, IR, and EXR during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to EXR, IR to price level, and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and EXR, price level and IR, and IR and EXR in the pre-crisis era, respectively. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, EXR, and IR during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and EXR, IR and price level, and IR and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

  7. Trying to Assess the Quality of Macroeconomic Data – the Case of Swiss Labour Productivity Growth as an Example

    OpenAIRE

    Hartwig, Jochen

    2007-01-01

    Macroeconomic data are indispensable for modern governance, yet it is often unclear how reliable these data are. The production process of macroeconomic data inside the statistical offices is often not very transparent for the general public. Bystanders usually have no choice but to take for granted the published data because criteria by which to judge data quality are wanting. Hoping to contribute to a better understanding of the quality of macroeconomic data, this paper proposes several pla...

  8. Macroeconomic instability: its causes and consequences for the economy of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia SKOROBOGATOVA

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the concepts of appearance and elimination of macroeconomic instability, and the Keynesian approach for overcoming issues in Ukraine’s macroeconomic instability. Based on the Ukraine Statistics Service and World Bank data, Ukraine's economy tendencies have been defined: the country has not reached the pre-crisis economic level. The article identifies the reasons of negative balance payments and budget deficit: a decrease in production value, negative trade balance, growth of foreign creditor’s debt, currency instability, an increase in budget spending. The dynamics of income and expenditure within Ukraine budget has been analyzed, and also the destructiveness of existing approaches for the main financial documents has been grounded. Considering Ukraine’s economic and political situation, the main causes of macroeconomic instability are systematized. Government-implemented approaches for overcoming the macroeconomic instability have been suggested. The article introduces an approach for minimizing the negative effects on businesses, based on the timely identification of macroeconomic risks in terms of internal and external management. The possible negative impacts in case the timely decisions are not implemented have been assessed.

  9. The Macroeconomic Impact of Ebola Virus Disease (Evd: A Contribution to the Empirics of Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obukohwo Oba Efayena

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper addressed the formulation of a macro model to capture the macroeconomic impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD. Previous studies has adopted various models such as the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model, endogenous model and the LINKAGE model, but there is dire need to generate a step-by-step model which will comprehensively capture how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD impacts on macroeconomic variables. Adopting the traditional neoclassical growth model, the model aggregated the various macroeconomic variables as well as captured the epidemic’s strain on each of these variables. The paper also empirically shows that the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD has direct, indirect and deferred indirect cost implications for the economy. Using case studies of countries in Africa, the study evaluated how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD has affected the macroeconomic status of selected economies. The findings imply that there is dire need to control the spread of the deadly plague. The paper contribute immensely to empirical studies in the field of macroeconomics.

  10. Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in Social Security Rules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilal Bagis

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Turkish social insurance system has been feverishly debated for years, particularly through its burden on the economy. The most recent reform is an attempt to neutralize the deterioration within the social security system and its effects on the economy. After the recent reform, ‘the way that retirement benefits are calculated’ is changed unfavorably for workers and the minimum age for retirement is increased. In particular, for an agent with 25 years of social security tax payments, the replacement rate is down from 65 percent to 50 percent. On the other hand, retirement age is up from 60 to 65. The aim of this paper is to investigate the macroeconomic effects of these changes using an OLG model. The author’s findings indicate that labor supply, output and capital stock increase when changes above are applied to the benchmark economy calibrated to the Turkish economy data in 2005. A critical change with the current reform is that the marginal benefit of working has become uniform over ages. In a simulation exercise, the marginal retirement benefit in the benchmark economy is changed to be uniform over ages while keeping the size of social security system unchanged. As a result, the benefit of retiring at a later period increases. However, uniform distribution of the marginal benefits itself decreases both the capital stock and output of the economy. Increasing the retirement age, on the other hand, has positive effects on the economy since agents obtain retirement benefits for fewer years and at an older age. Age increase has substantial positive effects on the labor supply, the capital stock, and the output.

  11. THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF STATE REGULATION OF NATIONAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yevgen Maslennikov

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The question of the economic role of the state was put up for a long time and until now every state solves this problem in different ways and only for itself, on the basis of the accumulated experience taking into account its customs and traditions. The objective need to include the state in the economic process is determined by such factors as: the need to ensure public reproduction on an extended scale, ensuring the long-term interests of the population, maintaining the balance of socio-economic interests of different population groups in the country, ensuring the unity and integrity of the country's territorial space. For this reason, the purpose of the paper is to examine the main theoretical aspects of state regulation of the economy in historical retrospect and at the present stage of the development of society. Methodology. Methodological and informational basis of the investigation are scientific articles, materials of periodicals, resources of the Internet. To achieve the goal set, the following general scientific and special methods were used: morphological analysis, system and structural-logical analysis, formalization, analogy, comparison and integration, tabular method. Results. As a result of the research, scientific and theoretical grounds for state regulation of national macroeconomic environment were presented; forms and methods of state regulation, programming as a form of perspective state regulation and principles of economic planning were considered in more detail. Practical implications. The considered forms of state regulation are relevant in the current conditions of management and can be applied by states in accordance with the level of economic development. Value/originality. The authors presented innovative forms of state regulation methods, and analyzed their effectiveness.

  12. ROMANIA'S MACROECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENTS FOR JOINING THE UNIQUE EUROPEAN CURENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SILVIA POPESCU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian government has announced plans to join the eurozone by 2015. Currently, the leu is not yet part of ERM II but plans to join in 2010-2012. The economic advantages of the monetary union grow with expansion of the Euro zone. There is also a high level of skepticism; the main fear about the Euro is the inflation –that is considerable promoted by the Euro currency’s exchange rate in comparison with 2002; another restraint is due to member states inability to establish their own interest rates. The IMF arose the option of joining the Euro zone criteria relaxing. A one-sided Euro’s joining was suggested by International Monetary Fund on March-April 2009, in a confidential report mentioned by The Financial Times as the emergent states in Central and Eastern Europe to be able to pass to the unique currency, but not being represented in the Central European Bank Board. By its side, CEB considers that emergent states of the European Union must not pass to the unique currency unilaterally, because such a fact could under-mine the trust in Euro currency worldwide. This option would hardly deepen the macroeconomic controversies inside the Euro zone and would contradict the previous conditions already imposed. An acceptable solution could be the fastening of emergent countries joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2, after they are aware of risks arisen by such a step. The European Commission endorses in the Convergence Report on 2010 that Romania doesn’t meet any criteria needed by passing to the unique European currency, respectively: prices stability; budget position of the government; stability of exchange rate; interest convergence on long run and there are also law impediments. Our paper discusses arguments for a faster passing to the Euro currency versus arguments for a late joining the Euro currency in Romania.

  13. Macroeconomic Dynamics in Russia During the First World War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheremisinov Georgiy

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The trajectory and quality of economic development of a country depend on the scale of the public entrepreneurship. The key parameters of macroeconomic dynamics are represented by the ratio between consumption and accumulation (saving in the national income, the regulation of centralized withdrawal of economic resources and the nature of their investment or expenditure. Theoretical analysis. The First World War had been changing the course of economic processes in Russia since 1914 till 1918. The funds were raised for ensuring the defense industry and supplying the troops. The incomes of population and enterprises were decreasing. The capital goods and trade ties undergone destruction processes. The besieged state turned to reducing reproduction of the gross national product. The military situation and extraordinary redistribution of resources had strengthened the economic status of the country. The funds spent on the maintenance and equipment of the army depended on the methods of resource allocation. Along with the war losses, the methods of economic regulation also contributed to the degradation of Russian economy. The devastation was caused by the armed struggle of state power for their interests and purposeful economic policy of successive governments. Conclusion. During the First World War the Russian economy had become extreme. Public withdrawal of economic resources and the impact on the economy was growing up until its overall governmentalization and transformation of the market economy into the subsistence one. The reformation processes supported each other mutually, strengthened the effect of general trends and had irreversible cumulative character. The mobilization model of the Russian economy was formed.

  14. Macroeconomic implications of population ageing and selected policy responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, David E; Chatterji, Somnath; Kowal, Paul; Lloyd-Sherlock, Peter; McKee, Martin; Rechel, Bernd; Rosenberg, Larry; Smith, James P

    2015-02-14

    Between now and 2030, every country will experience population ageing-a trend that is both pronounced and historically unprecedented. Over the past six decades, countries of the world had experienced only a slight increase in the share of people aged 60 years and older, from 8% to 10%. But in the next four decades, this group is expected to rise to 22% of the total population-a jump from 800 million to 2 billion people. Evidence suggests that cohorts entering older age now are healthier than previous ones. However, progress has been very uneven, as indicated by the wide gaps in population health (measured by life expectancy) between the worst (Sierra Leone) and best (Japan) performing countries, now standing at a difference of 36 years for life expectancy at birth and 15 years for life expectancy at age 60 years. Population ageing poses challenges for countries' economies, and the health of older populations is of concern. Older people have greater health and long-term care needs than younger people, leading to increased expenditure. They are also less likely to work if they are unhealthy, and could impose an economic burden on families and society. Like everyone else, older people need both physical and economic security, but the burden of providing these securities will be falling on a smaller portion of the population. Pension systems will be stressed and will need reassessment along with retirement policies. Health systems, which have not in the past been oriented toward the myriad health problems and long-term care needs of older people and have not sufficiently emphasised disease prevention, can respond in different ways to the new demographic reality and the associated changes in population health. Along with behavioural adaptations by individuals and businesses, the nature of such policy responses will establish whether population ageing will lead to major macroeconomic difficulties. Copyright © 2015 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd

  15. Revisiting the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Pietro, Giorgio

    2018-02-01

    This paper estimates the average population effect of macroeconomic conditions on health behaviours accounting for the heterogeneous impact of the business cycle on individuals. While previous studies use models relying on area-specific unemployment rates to estimate this average effect, this paper employs a model based on area-specific unemployment rates by gender and age group. The rationale for breaking down unemployment rates is that the severity of cyclical upturns and downturns does not only significantly vary across geographical areas, but also across gender and age. The empirical analysis uses microdata from the Italian Multipurpose Household Survey on Everyday Life Issues. The estimates suggest that models employing aggregated and disaggregated unemployment rate measures as a proxy for the business cycle produce similar findings for some health behaviours (such as smoking), whereas different results are obtained for others. While using unemployment rates by gender and age group, fruits and/or vegetables consumption turns out to be procyclical (a 1pp increase in this unemployment rate decreases the probability of consuming at least five daily fruit and/or vegetable servings by 0.0016pp), the opposite effect, though statistically insignificant, is observed once general unemployment rates are used. While both models conclude that physical activity declines during economic downturns, the size of the procyclical effect is much smaller when employing disaggregated rather than aggregated unemployment rates (a 1pp increase in the unemployment rate by gender and age group decreases the probability of doing any physical activity by 0.0017pp). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Macroeconomic Benefits of Low-Cost Reusable Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Eric J.; Greenberg, Joel

    1998-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated its Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Technology Program to provide information on the technical and commercial feasibility of single-stage to orbit (SSTO), fully-reusable launchers. Because RLVs would not depend on expendable hardware to achieve orbit, they could take better advantage of economies of scale than expendable launch vehicles (ELVs) that discard costly hardware on ascent. The X-33 experimental vehicle, a sub-orbital, 60%-scale prototype of Lockheed Martin's VentureStar SSTO RLV concept, is being built by Skunk Works for a 1999 first flight. If RLVs achieve prices to low-earth orbit of less than $1000 US per pound, they could hold promise for eliciting an elastic response from the launch services market. As opposed to the capture of existing market, this elastic market would represent new space-based industry businesses. These new opportunities would be created from the next tier of business concepts, such as space manufacturing and satellite servicing, that cannot earn a profit at today's launch prices but could when enabled by lower launch costs. New business creation contributes benefits to the US Government (USG) and the US economy through increases in tax revenues and employment. Assumptions about the costs and revenues of these new ventures, based on existing space-based and aeronautics sector businesses, can be used to estimate the macroeconomic benefits provided by new businesses. This paper examines these benefits and the flight prices and rates that may be required to enable these new space industries.

  17. Integral equations

    CERN Document Server

    Moiseiwitsch, B L

    2005-01-01

    Two distinct but related approaches hold the solutions to many mathematical problems--the forms of expression known as differential and integral equations. The method employed by the integral equation approach specifically includes the boundary conditions, which confers a valuable advantage. In addition, the integral equation approach leads naturally to the solution of the problem--under suitable conditions--in the form of an infinite series.Geared toward upper-level undergraduate students, this text focuses chiefly upon linear integral equations. It begins with a straightforward account, acco

  18. Impact of Macro-economic Factors on Deposit Formation by Ukrainian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shevaldina Valentyna H.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is detection of interconnections between the common economic processes and formation of bank deposits by population. The article builds a correlation and regression model of complex assessment of interconnection between macro-economic factors, savings behaviour of population and level of deposits of population in banks for two hour horizons: short-term, which is characterised with deployment of crisis phenomena both in global economy and in Ukrainian economy and the medium-term one. The article characterises the most significant common macro-economic factors. In the result of the study the article establishes that Ukrainian population is oriented at short-term horizon when forming savings due to the uncertainty in future. In the medium-term prospective, savings of the population are formed basically under influence of macro-economic factors, while formation of deposits by Ukrainian population is mostly influenced by socio-psychological factors.

  19. IFRS 9 implementation in banks and macroeconomic scenarios: Some methodological aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brković Milan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The International Financial Reporting Standard 9 - IFRS is another one in the series of global level initiatives undertaken with a view to fixing the consequences of the global economic and financial crisis, and preventing the future negative developments caused by inadequate recognition and presentation of credit losses on the part of banks. The IFRS 9 also represents a significant shift in relation to traditional accounting, given that it introduced the concept of expected credit losses to replace the concept of occurred credit losses. This task cannot be fulfilled by the traditional and conservative accounting without involving the macroeconomic assessment models, i.e. macroeconomic scenarios. This paper aims to highlight some specific methodological rudiments in macroeconomic analyses and forecasts as inputs for the accounting recognition and presentation of expected credit losses.

  20. Modeling of Macroeconomics by a Novel Discrete Nonlinear Fractional Dynamical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Hu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new nonlinear economic system with fractional derivative. According to the Jumarie’s definition of fractional derivative, we obtain a discrete fractional nonlinear economic system. Three variables, the gross domestic production, inflation, and unemployment rate, are considered by this nonlinear system. Based on the concrete macroeconomic data of USA, the coefficients of this nonlinear system are estimated by the method of least squares. The application of discrete fractional economic model with linear and nonlinear structure is shown to illustrate the efficiency of modeling the macroeconomic data with discrete fractional dynamical system. The empirical study suggests that the nonlinear discrete fractional dynamical system can describe the actual economic data accurately and predict the future behavior more reasonably than the linear dynamic system. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to investigate other macroeconomic variables of more states.

  1. How the macroeconomic context impacts on attitudes to immigration: Evidence from within-country variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruist, Joakim

    2016-11-01

    This study investigates the effects of the macroeconomic context on attitudes to immigration. Earlier studies do in some cases not provide significant empirical support for the existence of important such effects. In this article it is argued that this lack of consistent evidence is mainly due to the cross-national setup of these studies being vulnerable to estimation bias caused by country-specific factors. The present study instead analyzes attitude variation within countries over time. The results provide firm empirical support in favor of macroeconomic variation importantly affecting attitudes to immigration. As an illustration, the estimates indicate that the number of individuals in the average European country in 2012 who were against all immigration from poorer countries outside Europe was 40% higher than it would have been if macroeconomic conditions in that year had been as good as they were in 2006. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Macroeconomic and household-level impacts of HIV/AIDS in Botswana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefferis, Keith; Kinghorn, Anthony; Siphambe, Happy; Thurlow, James

    2008-07-01

    To measure the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and poverty in Botswana and estimate how providing treatment can mitigate its effects. Demographic and financial projections were combined with economic simulation models, including a macroeconomic growth model and a macro-microeconomic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. HIV/AIDS significantly reduces economic growth and increases household poverty. The impact is now severe enough to be affecting the economy as a whole, and threatens to pull some of the uninfected population into poverty. Providing antiretroviral therapy can partly offset this negative effect. Treatment increases health's share of government expenditure only marginally, because it increases economic growth and because withholding treatment raises the cost of other health services. Botswana's treatment programme is appropriate from a macroeconomic perspective. Conducting macroeconomic impact assessments is important in countries where prevalence rates are particularly high.

  3. Exit, voice, and loyalty in the Italian public health service: macroeconomic and corporate implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ippolito, Adelaide; Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon.

  4. Job satisfaction in the European union: the role of macroeconomic, personal, and job-related factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augner, Christoph

    2015-03-01

    Job satisfaction is influenced by many factors. Most of them are attributed to personality or company features. Little research has been conducted identifying the relationship of job satisfaction with macroeconomic parameters. We used data collected by European Commission (Eurostat, Eurofound) and World Health Organization (WHO) for personal (eg, subjective health, physical activity), company (eg, career advancement perspectives, negative health effects of work), or macroeconomic parameters (eg, Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate) on state level. Correlation analysis and a stepwise linear regression model were obtained. Gross domestic product (GDP) was the best predictor for job satisfaction across the European Union member states ahead of good career perspectives, and WHO-5 score (depressive symptoms). Beside personal, job-related, and organizational factors that influence job satisfaction, the macroeconomic perspective has to be considered, too.

  5. Macroeconomic Stability and Its Impact on the Economic Growth of the Country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Vasylieva

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this research is to study the role and impact force of macroeconomic stability on economic growth in the period from 2000 to 2016, using the modified Cobb–Douglas production function. The results of Global Competitiveness Report, published by World Economic Forum, demonstrated that at the existing level of economic growth in Ukraine the basic drivers for improvement of the country's competitiveness are necessary to be considered for building of the production function. Basing on the analysis performed, the author created odified Cobb–Douglas production function where Macroeconomic stability, openness of the economy and foreign direct investments are used as additional explanatory variables of Cobb–Douglas production function. Obtained findings indicate the high level of compliance of the built model with the initial data. Herewith, the assessment of the elasticity of macroeconomic stability is positive and statistically significant.

  6. Institutional Design, Macroeconomic Policy Coordination and Implications for the Financial Sector in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Muhammad Ali

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study has analysed the implications of institutional design of macroeconomic policy making institutions for the macroeconomic policy interaction and financial sector in the United Kingdom. Employing a Vector Error Correction (VEC model and using monthly data from January 1985 to August 2008 we found that the changes in institutional arrangement and design of policy making authorities appeared to be a major contributing factor in dynamics of association between policy coordination/combination and financial sector. It was also found that the independence of the Bank of England (BoE and withdrawal from the Exchange Rate Mechanism led to the increase in macroeconomic policy maker’s ability to coordinate and restore financial stability. The results imply that although institutional autonomy in the form of instrument independence (monetary policy decisions could bring financial stability, there is a strong necessity for coordination, even in Post-MPC (Monetary Policy Committee and the BoE independence.

  7. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty in the Italian Public Health Service: Macroeconomic and Corporate Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

    2013-01-01

    The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon. PMID:24348148

  8. Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Policies in the Context of Closed and Open Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kubendran

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Monetary policy and fiscal policy are the two important macroeconomic policies which are used to achieve certain major macroeconomic goals like economic growth, unemployment reduction, counteract inflation and overall economic development of the nation. The effect of macroeconomic variables may differ in terms of degree, duration, different economic systems and under different exchange rate regimes. This study analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy on the economy in terms of economic integration and different exchange rate regimes. Regression analysis in this study found that the fiscal policy is more effective in a closed economy and monetary policy is more effective in an open economy. Also the study finds that the fiscal policy is more effective under managed float exchange rate regime and monetary policy is more effective under perfectly flexible exchange rate. So this study also validated Mundell- Fleming model.

  9. Introducing Valuation Effects-Based External Balance Analysis into the Undergraduate Macroeconomics Curricula: A Simple Framework with Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brust, Peter; Jayakumar, Vivekanand

    2012-01-01

    Global imbalances and the sustainability of large U.S. current account deficits have dominated international macroeconomics of late. Pedagogically, a clear disconnect exists between graduate-level open-economy macroeconomics that emphasizes intertemporal current account models and net foreign asset adjustment featuring valuation effects, and,…

  10. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS, BANK’S CREDIT SCHEME, FIRM’S PERFORMANCE, AND FIRM’S VALUE DIMENSIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harmono Harmono

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship among macroeconomic fundamentals, bank’s credit scheme, firm’s performance and firm’s value dimentions. The research design was explanatory research, using a structural equation model. The sample is PT. Bank Persero industry in Indonesia from 1999-2014 monthly. Empirically, based on confirmatory test it could be described that the variables represented for each dimension were that the dominant variable in macroeconomic was currency exchange rate IDR to USD, and working capital interest rate represented the bank credit interest scheme dimension, ROA was dominant for firm’s performance, and the frequency of stock trading was representing the firm’s value dimension. For the next, based on structural equation model with regression coefficient, path analysis could be discussed as follows. First, working capital credit interest rate was as weak mediation variable between exchange rate IDR to USD and ROA. Second, working capital credit interest rate influenced the frequency of stock trading through ROA. In this case ROA was as strong mediation variable. The last path analyzed the influence of exchange rate IDR against USD to the frequency of stock trading through ROA. Here ROA was the strong mediation variable. Penelitian ini meneliti pola hubungan antar dimensi fundamental makroekonomi, skema bunga kredit, kinerja perusahaan, dan nilai perusahaan. Rancangan penelitian berupa penelitian eksplanatori, dengan menggunakan analisis Model Persamaan Terstruktur (SEM. Sampel penelitian adalah industri PT. Bank Persero di Indonesia periode 1999-2014 secara bulanan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan, berdasarkan hasil pengujian model konfirmatori dapat dijelaskan bahwa variabel-variabel yang mewakili masing-masing dimensi yaitu: variable perubahan nilai kurs mewakili dimensi fundamental makro, tarif bunga kredit modal kerja mewakili dimensi skema bunga kredit bank, ROA dominan mewakili kinerja perusahaan dan

  11. Reflections on modern macroeconomics: Can we travel along a safer road?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaffeo, E.; Catalano, M.; Clementi, F.; Delli Gatti, D.; Gallegati, M.; Russo, A.

    2007-08-01

    In this paper we sketch some reflections on the pitfalls and inconsistencies of the research program-currently dominant among the profession-aimed at providing microfoundations to macroeconomics along a Walrasian perspective. We argue that such a methodological approach constitutes an unsatisfactory answer to a well-posed research question, and that alternative promising routes have been long mapped out but only recently explored. In particular, we discuss a recent agent-based, truly non-Walrasian macroeconomic model, and we use it to envisage new challenges for future research.

  12. Gates to retirement and gender differences: Macroeconomic conditions, job satisfaction, and age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrad, Hila; Mcnamara, Tay K

    2017-08-04

    The different pathways out of the labor force have been the focus of many recent studies, yet not enough scholarly attention has been paid to the effect of country-level, individual, and job characteristics and their potentially different influence across genders. The current article examines the relationships between retirement decisions and macroeconomic conditions, personal characteristics, and job satisfaction, while focusing on gender differences. Data came from 16,337 respondents in 13 European countries that participated in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We find that the relative importance of macroeconomic conditions and job satisfaction differs by gender.

  13. Causes and Effects in Macroeconomics: 2011 Nobel Prize Lecture in Economic Sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shlair Abdulkhaleq Al-Zanganee

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Noble Laureates Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims have been granted the 2011 Noble Prize in economic sciences in appreciation of their empirical research on causes and effects in macroeconomics. The controversy on causality in macroeconomics was discussed in both of Sargent’s and Sims’s 2011 Prize lectures. While Sargent attempts to use the economic theory to interpret some historical events in order to gain insights on some contemporary issues, such as sovereign defaults, federal bailouts, and the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, Sims is emphasizing the importance of large-scale economic models and calling for more research to be done in that area.

  14. Differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Tricomi, FG

    2013-01-01

    Based on his extensive experience as an educator, F. G. Tricomi wrote this practical and concise teaching text to offer a clear idea of the problems and methods of the theory of differential equations. The treatment is geared toward advanced undergraduates and graduate students and addresses only questions that can be resolved with rigor and simplicity.Starting with a consideration of the existence and uniqueness theorem, the text advances to the behavior of the characteristics of a first-order equation, boundary problems for second-order linear equations, asymptotic methods, and diff

  15. Differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Barbu, Viorel

    2016-01-01

    This textbook is a comprehensive treatment of ordinary differential equations, concisely presenting basic and essential results in a rigorous manner. Including various examples from physics, mechanics, natural sciences, engineering and automatic theory, Differential Equations is a bridge between the abstract theory of differential equations and applied systems theory. Particular attention is given to the existence and uniqueness of the Cauchy problem, linear differential systems, stability theory and applications to first-order partial differential equations. Upper undergraduate students and researchers in applied mathematics and systems theory with a background in advanced calculus will find this book particularly useful. Supplementary topics are covered in an appendix enabling the book to be completely self-contained.

  16. How Do Transfer Students Perform in Economics? Evidence from Intermediate Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asarta, Carlos J.; Fuess, Scott M., Jr.; Perumal, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    For students taking intermediate-level economics, does it matter where they studied principles of economics? Does transferring college credit influence subsequent academic performance in economics? With a sample covering 1999-2008, the authors analyze in this article a group of nearly 1,000 students taking intermediate macroeconomics at a…

  17. Exchange rate dynamics and its effect on macroeconomic volatility in selected CEE countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Audzei, Volha; Brázdik, F.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 1 (2017), s. 15-19 ISSN 1803-7089 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : exchange rate dynamics * macroeconomic volatility Subject RIV: AH - Economic s http://www.cnb.cz/miranda2/export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/erb/download/ERB_No1_2017.pdf

  18. Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); R. Segers (René); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractSeveral lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic

  19. Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Cakmakli (Cem); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that

  20. Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting stock returns and volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cakmakli, C.; van Dijk, D.

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only include

  1. Is there a Core of Macroeconomics that Euro Area Forecasters Believe In?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch, Christian; Ruelke, Jan

    2012-01-01

    The quantity theory of money, Okun’s law, and the Phillips curve are cornerstones of macroeconomic theory. But are they also of practical relevance? Using survey data for the euro area, we found that professional economists’ forecasts are consistent with a version of the quantity theory in which...

  2. Including the monetary part in macro accounting: A ‘modern’ approach to the macroeconomic accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur TUTULMAZ

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Economic output is placed at the heart of the macroeconomics. To calculate the output one needs to achieve simplifying a high level complexity of economic relationships to form a system. On the flip side, the model should be enough elaborated to be able to reflect the important relationships. In this manner, the classical macroeconomic identity as Keynes suggested is simple enough to understand the main elements but it does not show the financial parts of transactions. Not having the monetary part of the economy it lacks the coherence. With the financial and economic crises getting more frequent, more endeavour to build a more inclusive and coherent macroeconomic system has been observed. However, there are large variety in different options of simplifying and simulating complex relationships among the real and monetary part of the modern economies.  Our paper tries to set an analysis comparing some of the recent prominent ideas in building balance sheet and transaction flow matrix in regard to macroeconomic accounting system. We can conclude the new achievement of including the monetary transactions in the frame causes a compromise from the simplicity for a coherent and more complete picture of macro economy.

  3. Macroeconomic impacts of Universal Health Coverage : Synthetic control evidence from Thailand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Rieger (Matthias); N. Wagner (Natascha); A.S. Bedi (Arjun Singh)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractWe study the impact of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) on various macroeconomic outcomes in Thailand using synthetic control methods. Thailand is compared to a weighted average of control countries in terms of aggregate health and economic performance over the period 1995 to 2012. Our

  4. Macroeconomic Analysis and Graphical Interpretation of Azerbaijan Economy in 1991-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khatai ALIYEV

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze macroeconomic performance and discuss transition indicators in Azerbaijan economy for 1991-2012. After regaining independence in 1991, Azerbaijan implemented economic transition process toward market economy. In the first years of independence, serious economic recession was observed. However, after 1995, the restructuring of the economy started. In this sense, signing the “Contract of the Century” was a turning point toward oil based high speed economic growth or oil boom period. Thus, by opening “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan” pipeline in 2005, Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic indicators experienced considerable growth for the following years. On the other hand, Azerbaijan officially declared the end of economic transition process in its economy in 2009. In this paper, the authors discuss the political-economic and economic process in the whole period as well as analyze the macroeconomic performance with and without oil & gas contribution. In addition, the authors question what would happen if economic transition period ended in Azerbaijan’s economy. It is concluded that oil & gas production has a serious impact over macroeconomic indicators and transition indicators, and for Azerbaijan it implies only a partly end of economic transition, though not completely.

  5. Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindeboom, Maarten; Portrait, France; Berg, van den G.J.

    2003-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of macro-economic conditions throughout life on the individual mortality rate. We estimate flexible duration models where the individual's mortality rate depends on current conditions, conditions earlier in life (notably during childhood), calendar time, age,

  6. MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF AN EEC POLICY TO CONTROL AIR-POLLUTION

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    NENTJES, A

    1991-01-01

    The OECD INTERLINK model was used to assess the macroeconomic impacts of a European Community directive to control air pollution. For this purpose the model was adapted. To meet the directive the EC would have to invest some 15 billion ECU. The annual costs would be 3.4 billion ECU in 1993. The

  7. A Simple Treatment of the Liquidity Trap for Intermediate Macroeconomics Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

    2014-01-01

    Several leading undergraduate intermediate macroeconomics textbooks now include a simple reduced-form New Keynesian model of short-run dynamics (alongside the IS-LM model). Unfortunately, there is no accompanying description of how the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates affects the model. In this article, the authors show how the…

  8. The Response of US College Enrollment to Unexpected Changes in Macroeconomic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, Kris M.; Beckert, Kim A.; Ewing, Bradley T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper estimates the extent and magnitude of US college and university enrollment responses to unanticipated changes in macroeconomic activity. In particular, we consider the relationship between enrollment, economic growth, and inflation. A time series analysis known as a vector autoregression is estimated and impulse response functions are…

  9. Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors. A view from the EU ETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the empirical relationship between the returns on carbon futures - a new class of commodity assets traded since 2005 on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) - and changes in macroeconomic conditions. By using variables which possess forecast power for equity and commodity returns, we document that carbon futures returns may be weakly forecast on the basis of two variables from the stock and bond markets, i.e. equity dividend yields and the 'junk bond' premium. Our results also suggest that the forecast abilities of two variables related to interest rates variation and economic trends on global commodity markets, respectively the U.S. Treasury bill yields and the excess return on the Reuters/CRB Index, are not robust on the carbon market. This latter result reinforces the belief that the EU ETS is currently operating as a very specific commodity market, with distinct fundamentals linked to allowance supply and power demand. The sensitivity of carbon futures to macroeconomic influences is carefully identified following a sub-sample decomposition before and after August 2007, which attempts to take into account the potential impact of the 'credit crunch' crisis. Collectively, these results challenge the market observers' viewpoint that carbon futures prices are immediately correlated with changes in the macroeconomic environment, and rather suggest that the carbon market is only remotely connected to macroeconomic variables. The economic logic behind these results may be related to the fuel-switching behavior of power producers in influencing primarily carbon futures price changes. (author)

  10. Enhancing Student Learning and Critical Thinking through Academic Controversy in Post Secondary Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santicola, Craig F.

    2011-01-01

    There is a lack of student learning and critical thinking skills in post-secondary macroeconomics courses. The literature indicates that the lack of learning outcomes can be attributed to the reliance on traditional lecture and the failure to adopt innovative instructional techniques. The purpose of this study was to investigate the student…

  11. A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the…

  12. Government control of markets of financial services of Ukraine in conditions of macroeconomic instability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ігор Юрійович Мельников

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An essence of financial services market of Ukraine is considered in the article. The mechanism and features of state regulation of financial services market in the context of macroeconomic instability are determined, the fundamentals of the theory of regulation of market economy and segments of the financial market of Ukraine are determined

  13. Macroeconomic Consequences of Outsourcing. An Analysis of Growth, Welfare and Product Variety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, H.L.F.

    1998-01-01

    Outsourcing of non-core activities by firms is nowadays a common business strategy. This paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing a firms’ incentive to follow such a strategy and its consequences for macroeconomic variables like growth and product variety. We divide production activities

  14. Demand for Money: View in Terms of Macroeconomics and Ukrainian Bank System

    OpenAIRE

    Kateryna Anufriyeva

    2014-01-01

    The article analyses the components and factors of money demand in Ukrainian financial, and, particularly, bank market conditions; such type of money demand as demand for hard currencies has been distinguished in a highly "dollarized" economy. The emphasis lays on the necessity of exploiting of the complex toolkit for money demand dynamics regulation considering macroeconomic and financial market indicators.

  15. Healthy public policy in poor countries: tackling macro-economic policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohindra, K S

    2007-06-01

    Large segments of the population in poor countries continue to suffer from a high level of unmet health needs, requiring macro-level, broad-based interventions. Healthy public policy, a key health promotion strategy, aims to put health on the agenda of policy makers across sectors and levels of government. Macro-economic policy in developing countries has thus far not adequately captured the attention of health promotion researchers. This paper argues that healthy public policy should not only be an objective in rich countries, but also in poor countries. This paper takes up this issue by reviewing the main macro-economic aid programs offered by international financial institutions as a response to economic crises and unmanageable debt burdens. Although health promotion researchers were largely absent during a key debate on structural adjustment programs and health during the 1980s and 1990s, the international macro-economic policy tool currently in play offers a new opportunity to participate in assessing these policies, ensuring new forms of macro-economic policy interventions do not simply reproduce patterns of (neoliberal) economics-dominated development policy.

  16. The Relationship Between Stock Market Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals in the Visegrad Group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pražák Tomáš

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of specific macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of selected financial sector companies listed on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange. We investigate the nature of the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. The long‑term causality, tested using the Johansen cointegration test, and the short‑run dynamics between the variables, examined using the VECM model, are explored using quarterly data from the 2005-2014 period. The short‑term causality shows the possibility of time series fluctuations; however a steady state should be achieved in the long‑term. In general, we confirmed that macroeconomic fundamentals had a negative impact on stock prices. The interest rate, which also has a negative impact, is the most prominent predictor of the long‑run developments. We also found very rare examples of macroeconomic variables that explain changes in stock prices within the VECM framework.

  17. The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices of Swiss Real Estate Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Ligocká

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock values of companies listed on stock exchanges could be influenced by many factors. The aim of this article is to examine existence and character of relationship between stock prices of selected Swiss real estate companies and macroeconomic fundamentals (GDP, interest rate, price level. The existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals is tested with the Johansen cointegration. The short run dynamics between the variables is examined by Vector Error Correction modelling and the Granger causality test. During the period 2005 – 2014 we revealed a long‑run equilibrium for five of the six analyzed stocks. We also confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the interest rate in particular, can explain a long-run behavior of stock prices. By contrast, macroeconomic variables are usually short in explanation of short‑run dynamics of stock prices. However, the results differ substantially among the stocks and, hence, they prevent us from drawing any general conclusion for the entire real estate sector in Switzerland.

  18. The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Reshid, Abdulaziz Abrar; Tarp, Finn

    2017-01-01

    investigation. The focus is on the effect of aid when allowing external and nominal factors to play a role in the macroeconomic transmission mechanism. We conclude that when monetary and external factors are properly accounted for, then aid has been pivotal to growth in both real GDP and investment....

  19. Macroeconomics, financial crisis and the environment: Strategies for a sustainability transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antal, M.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    We raise fundamental questions about macroeconomics relevant to escaping the financial-economic crisis and shifting to a sustainable economy. First, the feasibility of decoupling environmental pressure from aggregate income is considered. Decoupling as a single environmental strategy is found to be

  20. Resource Limitations, the Demand for Education and Economic Growth--A Macroeconomic View.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stam, Jerome M.

    To develop a theoretical framework for explaining the observed change in demand for human skill and knowledge that occurs with economic growth, a macroeconomic analysis was made of economic variables which are influenced by political, social, and cultural factors. In the three-dimensional framework, total output (Y) of all final goods and services…

  1. Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Murshed (Syed)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when debt

  2. Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Murshed (Syed)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when

  3. Using the Student Research Project to Integrate Macroeconomics and Statistics in an Advanced Cost Accounting Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Mahamood M.; Schwartz, Bill N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper discusses a student research project that is part of an advanced cost accounting class. The project emphasizes active learning, integrates cost accounting with macroeconomics and statistics by "learning by doing" using real world data. Students analyze sales data for a publicly listed company by focusing on the company's…

  4. Data-Based Active Learning in the Principles of Macroeconomics Course: A Mock FOMC Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiting, Cathleen

    2006-01-01

    The author presents an active-learning exercise for the introductory macroeconomics class in which students participate in a mock Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Preparation involves data gathering and writing both a research report and a policy recommendation. An FOMC meeting is simulated in which students give their policy…

  5. Studying Absenteeism in Principles of Macroeconomics: Do Attendance Policies Make a Difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Self, Sharmistha

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of this article is to see if and how attendance policy influences class attendance in undergraduate-level principles of macroeconomics classes. The second objective, which is related to the first, is to examine whether the nature of the attendance policy matters in terms of its impact on class attendance behavior. The results…

  6. Academic Efforts and Study Habits among Students in a Principles of Macroeconomics Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okpala, Amon O.; Okpala, Comfort O.; Ellis, Richard

    2000-01-01

    Students in a macroeconomics course (n=132) were compared on grade point average, academic efficacy, credit hours accumulated, and study hours/habits. Academic efficacy and study habits significantly explained achievement. The amount of study time had no significant impact. Scholastic Assessment Test scores and credit hours explained achievement…

  7. Methodologies for environmental, micro- and macro-economic evaluation of bioenergy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, R. van den; Wijk, A. van

    2006-01-01

    An overview is given of methodologies used for evaluation of bioenergy systems on envoronmental, micro- and macro-economic spects. To evaluate micro-economic impacts net present value and annualised cost calculation are used. For environmental impacts, methods used are: qualitative studies, energy

  8. Shipping and shipbuilding scenario evaluations through integration of maritime and macroeconomic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyn, J.F.J.

    2013-01-01

    This research focusses on the use of consistent scenarios to help ship owners, banks and other parties with an interest the maritime business get a better grip on the future. Three levels of detail can be distinguished for the maritime industry. The macroeconomic level is the highest and focusses on

  9. Teaching Critical Thinking: An Investigation of a Task in Introductory Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anna

    2004-01-01

    This paper is an investigation of understandings of critical thinking from two teaching perspectives: academic staff and tutors. It explores critical thinking as situated within an assessment task in introductory macroeconomics. This study found that while the two academic staff conceptualized critical thinking as a set of concrete cognitive…

  10. The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pramod Kumar NAIK

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables and the stock market index are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the stock prices positively relate to the money supply and industrial production but negatively relate to inflation. The exchange rate and the short-term interest rate are found to be insignificant in determining stock prices. In the Granger causality sense, macroeconomic variable causes the stock prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. There is bidirectional causality exists between industrial production and stock prices whereas, unidirectional causality from money supply to stock price, stock price to inflation and interest rates to stock prices are found.

  11. The individual life cycle and economic growth : An essay on demographic macroeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijdra, B.J.; Mierau, J.O.

    We develop a demographic macroeconomic model that captures the salient life-cycle features at the individual level and, at the same time, allows us to pinpoint the main mechanisms at play at the aggregate level. At the individual level the model features both age-dependent mortality and productivity

  12. A tale of trade-offs: the impact of macroeconomic factors on environmental concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, Stephen J; Emerson, Tisha L N

    2014-12-01

    We test whether macroeconomic conditions affect individuals' willingness to pay for environmental quality improvements. Improvements in environmental quality, like everything, come at a cost. Individuals facing difficult economic times may be less willing to make trade-offs required for improvements in environmental quality. Using somewhat different methodologies and shorter time frames, prior investigations have generally found a direct relationship between willingness to pay for environmental improvements and macroeconomic conditions. We use a nearly 40-year span (27 periods) of the General Social Survey (1974-2012) to estimate attitudes toward environmental spending while controlling for U.S. macroeconomic conditions and respondent-specific factors such as age, gender, marital status, number of children, residential location, educational attainment, personal financial condition, political party affiliation and ideology. Macroeconomic conditions include one-year lagged controls for the unemployment rate, the rate of economic growth (percentage change in real GDP), and an indicator for whether the U.S. economy was experiencing a recession. We find that, in general, when economic conditions are unfavorable (i.e., during a recession, or with higher unemployment, or lower GDP growth), respondents are more likely to believe the U.S. is spending too much on "improving and protecting the environment". Interacting lagged macroeconomic controls with respondent's income, we find that these views are at least partially offset by the respondent's own economic condition (i.e., their own real income). Our findings are consistent with the notion that environmental quality is a normal, or procyclical good, i.e., that environmental spending should rise when the economy is expanding and fall during economic contractions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Establishing a Set of Macroeconomic Factors Explaining Variation Over Time of Performance in Business Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available With increasing competitiveness of companies and business sectors in the domestic markets of Lithuania, economic units are frequently confronted with the lack of methods for more detailed analysis of external factors explaining the variation over time of corporate financial indicators. The analysis or forecasting of financial indicators is usually linked with the development of a stock market or undertaken to estimate the probability of bankruptcy. However, there is a lack of studies aimed at identifying links between macroeconomic factors and financial performance indicators and explaining their variation over time. To serve that purpose, the factors of the macroeconomic environment that are most significant for certain economic activities have been identified and analysed to enable explaining the variation over time patterns of corporate financial indicators. The analysis covers economic performance, i.e. financial performance indicators and their links with macroeconomic factors, in 89 business sectors of Lithuania at a three-digit level of NACE 2 ed. The findings of the research indicate that the unemployment level in the country, the volume of export and import and the GDP are the most important macroeconomic factors that can be used to forecast different profitability, financial leverage, liquidity and other financial performance indicators of individual business sectors or companies. The research has not unfolded any significant differences between business sectors therefore the above factors are considered generic macroeconomic factors enabling to explain financial performance indicators of the 89 business sectors. Hence, special attention has to be paid to identifying and analysing specific factors and assessing the causal link. When established, the set of such factors provides a framework for building of a model to forecast business sector financial indicators.

  14. Visibility graph analysis on quarterly macroeconomic series of China based on complex network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Na; Li, Dong; Wang, Qiwen

    2012-12-01

    The visibility graph approach and complex network theory provide a new insight into time series analysis. The inheritance of the visibility graph from the original time series was further explored in the paper. We found that degree distributions of visibility graphs extracted from Pseudo Brownian Motion series obtained by the Frequency Domain algorithm exhibit exponential behaviors, in which the exponential exponent is a binomial function of the Hurst index inherited in the time series. Our simulations presented that the quantitative relations between the Hurst indexes and the exponents of degree distribution function are different for different series and the visibility graph inherits some important features of the original time series. Further, we convert some quarterly macroeconomic series including the growth rates of value-added of three industry series and the growth rates of Gross Domestic Product series of China to graphs by the visibility algorithm and explore the topological properties of graphs associated from the four macroeconomic series, namely, the degree distribution and correlations, the clustering coefficient, the average path length, and community structure. Based on complex network analysis we find degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of value-added of three industry series are almost exponential and the degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of GDP series are scale free. We also discussed the assortativity and disassortativity of the four associated networks as they are related to the evolutionary process of the original macroeconomic series. All the constructed networks have “small-world” features. The community structures of associated networks suggest dynamic changes of the original macroeconomic series. We also detected the relationship among government policy changes, community structures of associated networks and macroeconomic dynamics. We find great influences of government

  15. The impact of science on economic growth and its cycles the mathematical dynamics determined by the basic macroeconomic facts

    CERN Document Server

    Aulin, Arvid

    1998-01-01

    The author shows that the enormous gap between theory and facts in modern macroeconomics can only be eliminated by nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics with the following special characteristics: First of all, only certain group-theoretical invariants generate the correct growth cycles with irregularly varying lengths, not any stochastic process as usually applied for this purpose. Furthermore, a special extended value function and generalized human capital are needed for a correct representation of scientific and technological innovation. Finally, the correct nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics are not reducible to microeconomics, for both of the above mentioned reasons.

  16. Bernoulli's Equation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    regarding nature of forces hold equally for liquids, even though the ... particle. Figure A. A fluid particle is a very small imaginary blob of fluid, here shown sche- matically in .... picture gives important information about the flow field. ... Bernoulli's equation is derived assuming ideal flow, .... weight acting in the flow direction S is.

  17. Relativistic equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gross, F.

    1986-01-01

    Relativistic equations for two and three body scattering are discussed. Particular attention is paid to relativistic three body kinetics because of recent form factor measurements of the Helium 3 - Hydrogen 3 system recently completed at Saclay and Bates and the accompanying speculation that relativistic effects are important for understanding the three nucleon system. 16 refs., 4 figs

  18. Complexity dynamics and Hopf bifurcation analysis based on the first Lyapunov coefficient about 3D IS-LM macroeconomics system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junhai; Ren, Wenbo; Zhan, Xueli

    2017-04-01

    Based on the study of scholars at home and abroad, this paper improves the three-dimensional IS-LM model in macroeconomics, analyzes the equilibrium point of the system and stability conditions, focuses on the parameters and complex dynamic characteristics when Hopf bifurcation occurs in the three-dimensional IS-LM macroeconomics system. In order to analyze the stability of limit cycles when Hopf bifurcation occurs, this paper further introduces the first Lyapunov coefficient to judge the limit cycles, i.e. from a practical view of the business cycle. Numerical simulation results show that within the range of most of the parameters, the limit cycle of 3D IS-LM macroeconomics is stable, that is, the business cycle is stable; with the increase of the parameters, limit cycles becomes unstable, and the value range of the parameters in this situation is small. The research results of this paper have good guide significance for the analysis of macroeconomics system.

  19. Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hegerty Scott W.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.

  20. La absorción de la macroeconomía por la microeconomía

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghislain Deleplace

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to analyze the dominant tendency in the history of macroeconomics. It attempts to identify the two routes that research on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics has followed. On the one hand, the relation between employment, wages and inflation (the route indicated by Friedman; on the other hand, the existence of rigidities or a monetary restriction (the route indicated by Clower.

  1. Assessing Determinants of Macroeconomic Policy on Real Convergence and Growth: A Comparative Study of the Eurozone and ASEAN

    OpenAIRE

    ZaenalMutaqin; Masaru Ichihashi

    2012-01-01

    This study mainly examines the role of macroeconomic policy variables associated with Maastricht Convergence Criteria (MC), using various approaches to analyze comparatively differences in growth and convergence in income, productivity, and unemployment between a developed, economically integrated area (Eurozone) and a developing one (ASEAN), a decade before and after the euro was introduced. The most interesting issue is whether macroeconomic policy coordination in the Eurozone has had an in...

  2. Market versus agriculture in Poland – macroeconomic relations of incomes, prices and productivity in terms of the sustainable development paradigm

    OpenAIRE

    CZYŻEWSKI, Bazyli; MAJCHRZAK, Adam

    2017-01-01

    In the article macroeconomic relations of prices, productivity and incomes in Polish agriculture in the context of changes in the EU Common Agricultural Policy were studied. The authors have developed a macroeconomic model which explains these relations and confirms the occurrence of market failures in agriculture in Poland. The developed model proves the existence of a puzzling exchangeable relation between the real productivity of production factors in agriculture, and agricultural incomes,...

  3. The Resource Structure of the Potential of Economic Development and Growth of Wealth of the Modern Macroeconomic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silantiev Oleh I.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The publication is aimed at researching the features of formation and structure of economic potential of the economic development of modern macroeconomic systems. The research used the structural-functional, systemic, integral and logical approaches together with the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction. A formalization of the resource structure of the potential of economic development of modern macroeconomic systems with allocation of defining (mandatory kinds of resources (wealth and clarification of their (its specifics in the concrete historical conditions of society’s living was carried out. The bases of identification of essence and structure of the economic potential of development of the modern macroeconomic systems are clarified by its kinds. The factors of strategic influence on the process of formation of the economic development potential of the modern macroeconomic systems were researched. The value of the carried out research is the improved theoretical approaches to understanding the essence and structure of both the economic potential and the economic development potential of macroeconomic systems. Prospects for further research are the in-depth analysis of the individual components of the resource structure of the economic development potential of macroeconomic systems, especially the imperative types of wealth.

  4. Romania’s Macroeconomic Steering in 2015 - between Enthusiasm and Recession Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian - Marian Barbu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article reveals that, despite having a solid macro-economic state and a significant economic growth as starting points, those who conceive the fiscal-budgetary macroeconomic policies in Romania apply more enthusiasm than principles of responsibility, prudence and sustainability. While economic growth in Romania is over 3% of the GDP, public debt of a little over 40% of the GDP, budget revenues with 7.8% bigger than during the first 9 months of the previous year, and budgetary surplus of almost 1% of the GDP after the first 8 months, the 2016 budget prospects look good. Well, they are actually not. If the Government implements the budgetary expenditure announced, the budget deficit may explode which may lead, in 2018, to exceeding the maximal critical threshold of public debt, and in this case, according to the Romanian National Bank, the recession risk will be over 50%.

  5. Low-Frequency Volatility in China’s Gold Futures Market and Its Macroeconomic Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We extract low- and high-frequency volatility from China’s Shanghai gold futures market using an asymmetric Spline-GARCH (ASP-GARCH model. We then regress monthly low-frequency volatility on selected monthly macroeconomic indicators to study the impact of macroeconomy on gold futures market and to test for excess volatility. Our main result is volatility in China’s Shanghai gold futures market resulting from both macroeconomic fluctuations and investor behaviour. Chinese Consumer Price Index Volatility and US dollar volatility are the two main determinants of low-frequency gold volatility. We also find significant evidence of excess volatility, which can in part be explained in terms of loss-aversive investor behaviour.

  6. STUDYING THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES SHOCKS ON MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES OF THE IRANIAN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Assadzadeh

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies impact of government expenditures shocks on Gross DomesticProduct (GDP, personal consumption, trade balanceand effective exchange rate.To the purpose, time series data of Iranian macroeconomic variables were usedcovering from 1976 to 2007. Vector autoregressive (VAR model, forecast errorvariance decomposition and momentary reaction functions were used in order tostudy the impact of government expenditures shockson macroeconomic variablesof Iranian economy. Extracted results from the estimate of VAR model andanalyses of forecast error variance decomposition showed that: positive shocks ofthe government expenditures increase GDP and personal consumption butdecrease trade balance. Impact of government expenditures positive shocksdecrease effective exchange rate only in first yearthen government expendituresshocks had positive but very little impact on effective exchange rate.

  7. Vocabulary Practice and Media Representation: A Corpus-Assisted Study of Macroeconomic News

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Win-Ping Kuo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This Paper introduces corpus methods and its application to media text analysis. The researcher collect 1,363 macroeconomic reports from three major Taiwanese newspapers, including Apple Daily, The Liberty Times, and The United Daily as the copra. Research shows that corpus-assisted media text analysis enables researcher to calculate frequency of vocabulary and analyze lexical structure of the text via concordance and collocation. By using macroeconomic news as the study case, this paper also found that news reports tend to simplify GDP number as a mission, prefer attributing local economic performance as a systematic problem of global economy, and treat economy as a manageable task by attributing it to the government. All these ideologies and values are reflected on vocabularies and discursive practice of media.

  8. MACROECONOMIC CLIMATE AND THE SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE COMPANIES IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei Rădulescu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Small and medium size companies (SMEs represent the engine of the economy in the member states of the European Union. In Romania, SMEs entered the post-crisis cycle in 2013 after a severe adjustment process under the impact of the Great Recession. The economic performance of SMEs is strongly influenced by the macroeconomic climate. The important role of SMEs in the economy has determined the Romanian government to implement several measures in order to support their activity. The present paper highlights the mid-term macroeconomic outlook for Romania, as well as the recent developments related to SMEs, along with the main measures implemented by the Government over the past years in order to support the development of these companies.

  9. A macro-economic and sectoral evaluation of carbon taxation in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callonnec, Gael; Reynes, Frederic; Yeddir-Tamsamani, Yasser

    2011-01-01

    This paper evaluates the macro-economic and sectoral impact of a carbon tax in France using the Three-ME model that combines two important features: (1) The model has a detailed industrial structure and detailed description of the French tax system, particularly the taxation applied to energy. (2) It has the main properties of the neo-Keynesian models because it takes into account the slow process adjustment of prices and quantifies. Our results show under certain conditions the possibility of a double economic and environmental dividends resulting from carbon taxation, for both the short and long term. Carbon tax. Neo-Keynesian macro-economic model. Sectoral analysis. Initially published in 'Revue de l'OFCE / Debats et politiques' No. 120

  10. Pessimistic Determination of Mechanical Conditions and Micro/macroeconomic Evaluation of Mine Pillar Replacement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qingfa; Zhao, Fuyu

    2017-12-01

    Numerous pillars are left after mining of underground mineral resources using the open stope method or after the first step of the partial filling method. The mineral recovery rate can, however, be improved by replacement recovery of pillars. In the present study, the relationships among the pillar type, minimum pillar width, and micro/macroeconomic factors were investigated from two perspectives, namely mechanical stability and micro/macroeconomic benefit. Based on the mechanical stability formulas for ore and artificial pillars, the minimum width for a specific pillar type was determined using a pessimistic criterion. The microeconomic benefit c of setting an ore pillar, the microeconomic benefit w of artificial pillar replacement, and the economic net present value (ENPV) of the replacement process were calculated. The values of c and w were compared with respect to ENPV, based on which the appropriate pillar type and economical benefit were determined.

  11. Flatness-based control and Kalman filtering for a continuous-time macroeconomic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Busawon, K.; Binns, R.

    2017-11-01

    The article proposes flatness-based control for a nonlinear macro-economic model of the UK economy. The differential flatness properties of the model are proven. This enables to introduce a transformation (diffeomorphism) of the system's state variables and to express the state-space description of the model in the linear canonical (Brunowsky) form in which both the feedback control and the state estimation problem can be solved. For the linearized equivalent model of the macroeconomic system, stabilizing feedback control can be achieved using pole placement methods. Moreover, to implement stabilizing feedback control of the system by measuring only a subset of its state vector elements the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is used. This consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the linearized equivalent model of the financial system and of an inverse transformation that is based again on differential flatness theory. The asymptotic stability properties of the control scheme are confirmed.

  12. An Analysis of Economic Growth, Competitiveness and Macroeconomic Imbalances in the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Hurduzeu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Taking into consideration the determinants of the economic crisis and of the sovereign debt crisis, we aim to analyze the dynamics of the European economies and discuss changes related to macroeconomic imbalances, as highlighted by the recent crises as an important factor of the unfavorable dynamics registered during the last years. In this respect we considered both internal and external imbalances, as specified in the macroeconomic imbalance procedure that was implemented for the European Union member states since 2012, as a response to the crises that affected all open economies of the world. The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of economic imbalances in the European Union and to determine their influence on economic growth.

  13. Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

    2004-01-01

    In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

  14. Effects of macroeconomic trends on social security spending due to sickness and disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Jahangir; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Jansson, Bjarne

    2004-11-01

    We analyzed the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, measured as unemployment rate and social security spending, from 4 social security schemes and total spending due to sickness and disability. We obtained aggregated panel data from 13 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries for 1980-1996. We used regression analysis and fixed effect models to examine spending on sickness benefits, disability pensions, occupational-injury benefits, survivor's pensions, and total spending. A decline in unemployment increased sickness benefits spending and reduced disability pension spending. These effects reversed direction after 4 years of unemployment. Inclusion of mortality rate as an additional variable in the analysis did not affect the findings. Macroeconomic conditions influence some reimbursements from social security schemes but not total spending.

  15. THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON CREDIT RISK: CASE OF ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulia Andreea Bucur

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to explore the interactions between macroeconomic conditions, such as: real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, market interest rate, broad money supply, foreign exchange rate fluctuation and unemployment rate, and credit risk in Romanian banking sector during 2008-2013. The interrelations of indicators’ complexity imply a multidimensional statistical analysis in order to find a relation between the macroeconomic conditions and the credit risk. Our regression analysis findings confirm the hypothesis according to which the money supply growth rate and the market foreign exchange rate are negatively related with credit risk and the unemployment rate is positively related with it. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the credit risk is significantly and negatively affected by the exchange rate fluctuation and significantly and positively affected by the unemployment rate. The results do not indicate a significant relationship between credit risk and real GDP growth rate.

  16. The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slah Bahloul

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to study the impact of conventional stock market return and volatility and various macroeconomic variables (including inflation rate, short-term interest rate, the slope of the yield curve and money supply on Islamic stock markets returns for twenty developed and emerging markets using Markov switching regression models. The empirical results for the period 2002–2014 show that both developed and emerging Islamic stock indices are influenced by conventional stock indices returns and money supply for both the low and high volatility regimes. However, the other macroeconomic variables fail to explain the dynamics of Islamic stock indices especially in the high volatility regime. Similar conclusions are obtained by using the MS-VAR model.

  17. Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Fu

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts to shareholders. A stochastic discount factor motivated by the consumption-based asset pricing model is utilized. A single macroeconomic factor, namely the output gap determines the non-fundamental component of stock prices. A resulting trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR model of stock prices, broad dividends, and the output gap shows evidence of cointegration in the DJIA and S&P 500 index data. Nonetheless, a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveals existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in S&P 500 data during the late 1990s.

  18. Granger Causality between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Plíhal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate informational efficiency of the stock market in Germany. Granger causality between the stock market and the selected macroeconomic variables is investigated by bivariate analysis using Toda-Yamamoto (1995 approach. This study focuses on monthly data from January 1999 to September 2015, and the stock market is represented by blue chip stock market index DAX. Investigated macroeconomic indicators include industrial production, inflation, money supply, interest rate, trade balance and exchange rate. Stock market Granger-causes industrial production and interest rate, and is therefore leading indicator of these variables. Between money supply and stock prices is Granger causality in both directions. Other variables seem to be independent on development of the stock market. We do not find any violation of Efficient market hypothesis which indicates that the stock market in Germany is informational efficient.

  19. Macroeconomic regime and labor market: the Argentine experience of the past two decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Beccaria

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This document analyzes the interactions between macroeconomic regimes, employment generation and the dynamics of labor incomes in Argentina under two different macroeconomic regimes: the currency board regime of the 1990s and the high real exchange rate regime that followed. The former, characterized by a strong currency overvaluation, had a negative impact on economic activity and the labor market. However, the maintenance of a competitive real exchange rate does not by itself guarantee the sustained positive performance of the labor market, as it became evident in Argentina during the 2000s. Although the sizable depreciation of the peso –together with a positive international context- favored the expansion of output and employment, the initial concern of maintaining the real exchange rate at a competitive level was not continued with policies aimed to counteract the appreciation trend that appeared a few years after the implementation of the new regime.

  20. Decomposing Brazilian manufacturing industry dynamics in the mid-2000s: Macroeconomic factors and their sectoral impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Paulo Domingues

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The manufacturing industry's loss in participation, phenomena called “deindustrialization”, has been observed for the Brazilian economy for a while and seems to have intensified from mid-2000s. However, the literature has not developed a consistent or integrated analysis of this process. We have used a detailed simulation model to identify how macroeconomic factors (such as exchange rate, labor costs, and household consumption have contributed to manufacturing dynamics. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic scenario explains a large portion of the manufacturing industry's participation loss. The rise in households consumption and investment, important factors in this period, were responsible for dampening of the pressures coming from the currency appreciation and the workforce costs, benefiting some industrial sectors, but not avoiding the manufacturings participation loss. Keywords: Manufacturing, Growth, Development, Simulations, JEL classification: O14, C68, D58

  1. Bank Stock Returns in Responding the Contribution of Fundamental and Macroeconomic Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridwan Nurazi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to examine the effect of financial fundamentals information using CAMELS ratios and macroeconomics variables surrogated by interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate toward stock return. By employing panel data analysis (Pooled Least Squared Model, the results reveal that several financial ratios perform a bit contrary to the theory, in which the ratio of CAR shows positive sign but insignificantly contributes to stock returns. Also, the ratio of NPL does not affect the return. In fact, ROE and LDR positively and significantly contribute toward banks’ stock return. Meanwhile, NIM and BOPO show negative signs. The other macroeconomic variables, interest rate (IR, exchange rate (ER and inflation rate (INF are consistent with the a priori expectation, in which those variables negatively and significantly contribute to stock return of 16 banks, for the observation period from 2002 to 2011 in the Indonesian banking sector.

  2. The new economic governance in the EU Member States. Macroeconomic results and statistical correlations for Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela Cristea

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context of economic and financial crisis, many European countries are facing with fundamental issues and trends that are unsustainable on the long term. In these circumstances, we have developed the present study which analyzes the EU strategies for establishing a new economic governance for all Member States. We present the perspective of Romania’s macroeconomic stability in the European context, in its process for accession to the EMU, through the nominal and real convergence criteria. On this background, we make a statistical study on the direction of causality relation between GDP and the main factors of the influence at the macroeconomic level. Reviving growth, as predicted by Romanian institutions, would produce major benefits to act extensively through coherent policies to balance the money market, the labor market and the fiscal framework

  3. Taxing CO2 and subsidising biomass: Analysed in a macroeconomic and sectoral model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    This paper analyses the combination of taxes and subsidies as an instrument to enable a reduction in CO2 emission. The objective of the study is to compare recycling of a CO2 tax revenue as a subsidy for biomass use as opposed to traditional recycling such as reduced income or corporate taxation....... A model of Denmark's energy supply sector is used to analyse the e€ect of a CO2 tax combined with using the tax revenue for biomass subsidies. The energy supply model is linked to a macroeconomic model such that the macroeconomic consequences of tax policies can be analysed along with the consequences...... for speci®c sectors such as agriculture. Electricity and heat are produced at heat and power plants utilising fuels which minimise total fuel cost, while the authorities regulate capacity expansion technologies. The e€ect of fuel taxes and subsidies on fuels is very sensitive to the fuel substitution...

  4. The research on optimization of auto supply chain network robust model under macroeconomic fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Chunxiang; Liu, Xiaoli; Jin, Maozhu; Lv, Zhihan

    2016-01-01

    Considering the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment, the robust optimization method is studied for constructing and designing the automotive supply chain network, and based on the definition of robust solution a robust optimization model is built for integrated supply chain network design that consists of supplier selection problem and facility location–distribution problem. The tabu search algorithm is proposed for supply chain node configuration, analyzing the influence of the level of uncertainty on robust results, and by comparing the performance of supply chain network design through the stochastic programming model and robustness optimize model, on this basis, determining the rational layout of supply chain network under macroeconomic fluctuations. At last the contrastive test result validates that the performance of tabu search algorithm is outstanding on convergence and computational time. Meanwhile it is indicated that the robust optimization model can reduce investment risks effectively when it is applied to supply chain network design.

  5. European macroeconomic imbalances at a sectorial level: Evidence from German and Spanish food industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Aznar

    2018-02-01

    Originality/value: The last decade has accentuated the macroeconomic differences, in terms of long term interest rates or levels of unemployment between the core of Europe, Germany, and the periphery, including countries like Spain. This research is one the first ones in analyzing how these differences are affecting financial performance and structural differences in a particular industry, that is one of the most important exporters of the European Union.

  6. Rethinking the micro-foundations of macroeconomics: insights from behavioural economics

    OpenAIRE

    Michelle Baddeley

    2014-01-01

    In the aftermath of the financial crisis, macroeconomics is at a crossroads: on the one hand, the analytically rigorous, assumption-based approaches based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models lack intuitive plausibility and predictive power; on the other hand, alternative models lack an underlying analytical core. Behavioural economics offers a potential solution if it can unify intuition and analytical rigour. The aim of this paper is to assess the extent to which macroeco...

  7. Optimal control and optimal trajectories of regional macroeconomic dynamics based on the Pontryagin maximum principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulgakov, V. K.; Strigunov, V. V.

    2009-05-01

    The Pontryagin maximum principle is used to prove a theorem concerning optimal control in regional macroeconomics. A boundary value problem for optimal trajectories of the state and adjoint variables is formulated, and optimal curves are analyzed. An algorithm is proposed for solving the boundary value problem of optimal control. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated by computing an optimal control and the corresponding optimal trajectories.

  8. Macroeconomic variables and stock prices in a small open economy: The case of Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Jahangir, Abbas

    2010-01-01

    This paper is an attempt to determine empirically the relationship between the Karachi stock exchange and macroeconomic variables; discount rate (DR), inflation (CPI), industrial production (IPI), foreign exchange rate (FX Rate) and foreign exchange reserves (FX Res). The general objective of the study is to investigate the efficiency of the Karachi Stock Exchange as a semi strong market in light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) over the period 1980 to 2007. Furthermore, we investigat...

  9. Macroeconomic Consequences of Outsourcing. An Analysis of Growth, Welfare and Product Variety

    OpenAIRE

    de Groot, H.L.F.

    1998-01-01

    Outsourcing of non-core activities by firms is nowadays a common business strategy. This paper provides a theoretical framework for analyzing a firms’ incentive to follow such a strategy and its consequences for macroeconomic variables like growth and product variety. We divide production activities into core and non-core activities. Non-core activities can be performed within the firm or can be mediated by the market. We will derive conditions under which outsourcing will occur, and under wh...

  10. Impact of Macroeconomic and Endogenous Factors on Non-Performing Bank Assets

    OpenAIRE

    Swamy, Vighneswara

    2012-01-01

    Determinants of default risk of banks in emerging economies have so far received inadequate attention in the literature. Using panel data techniques, this paper seeks to examine the impact of macroeconomic and endogenous factors on non-performing assets for the period from 1997-2009. The findings of the study reveal some interesting inferences contrary to the perception of few opinion makers. Lending Rates have been found to be not so significant in affecting the NPAs contrary to the general ...

  11. The contention within health economics: a micro-economic foundation using a macro-economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaxley, I L

    1998-03-01

    Health economists claim to use market economics combined with the micro-economic concepts of opportunity cost and the margin to advise on priority setting. However, they are advising on setting priorities through a macro-economic analysis using the costs of the supplier, thus prioritising the producer and not the consumer as the dynamic of economic activity. For health economists any contention within priority setting is due to lack of data not their confusion over fundamental concepts.

  12. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

  13. The Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impacts of Reforming Energy Subsidy Policy in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff; Hussain Ali Bekhet

    2017-01-01

    The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has signif...

  14. Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

  15. On the Need for New Economic Foundations: A Critique on Mainstream Macroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Hoffman

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The body of macroeconomic theory known as the neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis, hereafter mainstream macroeconomics, has dominated the practice of economics since the middle of the twentieth century and is largely unchallenged in institutions that teach economics. Not only does mainstream macroeconomics underlie monetary and fiscal policies intended to promote economic growth, full employment, and price stability, but it also provides the lens through which economic activity is measured and performance is evaluated. Most importantly, it has spawned a generally accepted ideology or conventional wisdom that frames economic issues and ‘acceptable’ policy responses to them. Woe to the economist or politician who strays beyond the constraints imposed by the beliefs emanating from this body of theory. Mainstream economic theory has always had its critics, but the failure of mainstream economists to predict the collapse of 2008 and the failure of the policy responses to the crisis have stimulated a new round of criticism. This paper surveys a range of criticisms made by economists and non-economists alike and finds that grounds exist for the rejection of mainstream macroeconomic theory. It is mathematically incoherent and irrelevant insofar as the assumptions upon which it is based are not supportable; its concepts are abstract and not measurable, and not capable of addressing the real questions of sustainability, economic stability, power, justice, and equity that affect the human condition. The conclusions reached are: 1 mainstream economic theory took a profoundly wrong path in the mid-twentieth century 2 foundations for a new synthesis of economic thinking are needed capable of addressing the issues that emerged in the late 20th century and integrating findings from other sub-disciplines of economics and other sciences.

  16. The Impact of Crude Oil Price on Macroeconomic Variables: New Evidence from Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Abdullah, Ahmad Monir; Masih, Abul Mansur M.

    2014-01-01

    An understanding of how volatilities of and correlations between crude oil and macroeconomic variables change over time including their directions and size is of crucial importance for both the domestic and international investors with a view to diversifying their portfolios for hedging against unforeseen risks. This paper is a humble attempt to add value to the existing literature by empirically testing for the ‘time-varying’ and ‘scale dependent’ correlations between selected commodities an...

  17. Student Performance in Principles of Macroeconomics: the Importance of Gender and Personality Type

    OpenAIRE

    Leiv Opstad; Lars Fallan

    2010-01-01

    Several studies indicate that females perform more poorly in economic courses than their male counterparts. Other studies reveal that students' personality types affect their performance in economic courses, as well. The present study explores this issue by testing a number of interactions between gender and the Kersey-Bates temperament types in an ordered probit model explaining students' grades in Principles of Macroeconomics. The results confirm that the interaction of gender and temperame...

  18. For an Olive Wreath? Olympic Games and Anticipation Effects in Macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    Brückner, Markus; Pappa, Evi

    2011-01-01

    We examine the effects that hosting and bidding for the Olympic Games has on macroeconomic outcomes in a panel of 184 countries spanning the period 1950-2006. Actual hosting of the Games generates positive investment, consumption, and output responses before, during, and after hosting. We detect anticipation effects: (i) bidding for the Olympic Games generates positive investment, consumption, and output responses at the time of the bidding; (ii) bidding for the Games has a transitory level e...

  19. New Zealand: The Last Bastion of Textbook Open-Economy Macroeconomics

    OpenAIRE

    David Fielding

    2011-01-01

    Recent empirical research into the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks has generated a 'puzzle'. Both Keynesian and Real Business Cycle models predict that a fiscal expansion will lead to a real exchange rate appreciation. However, in almost all the countries that have been studied, positive shocks to government spending cause the real exchange rate to depreciate. Recent theoretical work suggests that this unexpected result might reflect incomplete international financial market int...

  20. BANK CAPITAL AND MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS: A PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian NZENGUE PEGNET

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The recent financial turmoil has clearly highlighted the potential role of financial factors on amplification of macroeconomic developments and stressed the importance of analyzing the relationship between banks’ balance sheets and economic activity. This paper assesses the impact of the bank capital channel in the transmission of schocks in Europe on the basis of bank's balance sheet data. The empirical analysis is carried out through a Principal Component Analysis and in a Vector Error Correction Model.

  1. Analyzing the Productivity-Wage-Unemployment Nexus in Malaysia: Evidence from the Macroeconomic Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Soo Khoon Goh; Koi Nyen Wong

    2010-01-01

    Using multivariate cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques, this paper attempts to examine whether there exists a productivity-wageunemployment relationship in Malaysia at the macroeconomic level. The main findings show that unemployment is dichotomized from the long-run equilibrium relationship between labor productivity and real wages, implying labor productivity is an important long-run factor in determining real wages, while unemployment has negligible effect on the real wa...

  2. Experimental labor markets and policy considerations: Incomplete contracts and macroeconomic aspects

    OpenAIRE

    Casoria Fortuna; Riedl Arno

    2012-01-01

    This survey focuses on experimental labor markets investigating two aspects that deem us important for a better understanding of labor market relations and the consequences for labor market policies. The first part of the survey is dedicated to papers that assess the prevalence of reciprocal considerations in incomplete labor contracts. The second part summarizes the relatively small but growing experimental literature exploring labor issues in a macroeconomics and public finance setting and ...

  3. The Relationship Between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Janet Gale Stotsky; Manuk Ghazanchyan; Olumuyiwa S Adedeji; Nils Øvind Maehle

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between the foreign exchange regime and macroeconomic performance in Eastern Africa. The study focuses on seven countries, five of which decisively liberalized their foreign exchange regimes. The study assesses the relationship between (i) growth and various determinants, including the exchange regime, the real exchange rate, and current account liberalization; and (ii) inflation and various determinants, including lagged inflation, the nominal exchange ra...

  4. Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Ato Forson

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates and analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship between the Thai stock Exchange Index (SETI and selected macroeconomic variables using monthly time series data that cover a 20-year period from January 1990 to December 2009. The following macroeconomic variables are included in our analysis: money supply (MS, the consumer price index (CPI, interest rate (IR and the industrial production index (IP (as a proxy for GDP. Our findings prove that the SET Index and the selected macroeconomic variables are cointegrated at I (1 and have a significant equilibrium relationship over the long run. Money supply demonstrates a strong positive relationship with the SET Index over the long run, whereas the industrial production index and consumer price index show negative long-run relationships with the SET Index. Furthermore, in non-equilibrium situations, the error correction mechanism suggests that the consumer price index, industrial production index and money supply each contribute in some way to restore equilibrium. In addition, using Toda and Yamamoto’s augmented Granger causality test, we identify a bi-causal relationship between industrial production and money supply and unilateral causal relationships between CPI and IR, IP and CPI, MS and CPI, and IP and SETI, indicating that all of these variables are sensitive to Thai stock market movements. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.

  5. Simulation System for Making Political and Macroeconomical Decisions and Its Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vnukov, A. A.; Blinov, A. E.

    2018-01-01

    Object of this research are macroeconomic indicators, which are important to descript economic situation in a country. Purpose of this work is to identify these indicators and to analyze how the state can affect these figures with available instruments. Here was constructed a model where the targets can be calculated from raw data - tools in the field of economic policy. Software code that implements all relations among the indicators and allows to analyze with high accuracy, sufficiently successful economic policies and with the help of some tools, you can achieve better results. This model can be used to forecast macroeconomic scenarios. The corresponding values of the objective (outcome) variables are set as a consequence of the configuration data of the previous period, subject to external influences and depend on the instrumental variables. The results may be useful in economical predictions. The results were successfully checked on real scenarios of Russian, European and Chinese economics. Moreover, the results can be applied in the field of education. Program is available to use as “economical game” the educational process of the University, in which you can virtually implement various macroeconomic scenarios, draw conclusions about their success.

  6. The effect of macroeconomic conditions on the care decisions of the employed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Danny R; Khaliq, Amir A

    2014-02-01

    Medical care utilization has been found to be affected indirectly by changes in economic conditions through associated changes in employment or insurance status. However, if individuals interpret external macroeconomic conditions as employment risk, they may alter decisions to seek care even if they remain both employed and insured. To examine the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and the medical care usage of Americans who are both employed and insured. Restricting the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1995 to 2008 to respondents whose employment status and insurance status did not change, we employed a fixed-effect Poisson model to examine the association between state average annual unemployment rates and the utilization of 12 medical services. The average annual state unemployment rate was found to be a significant factor in hospital outpatient visits (P macroeconomic conditions are an important factor in the medical decisions of employed and insured individuals. Thus, policy changes that increase access among the unemployed or uninsured may mitigate this employment risk effect and create incentives that potentially alter the utilization decisions among those currently both employed and insured.

  7. Assessment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Senna, Viviane; Souza, Adriano Mendonça

    2016-11-01

    Since the 1988 Federal Constitution social assistance has become a duty of the State and a right to everyone, guaranteeing the population a dignified life. To ensure these rights federal government has created programs that can supply the main needs of people in extreme poverty. Among the programs that provide social assistance to the population, the best known are the ;Bolsa Família; Program - PBF and the Continuous Cash Benefit - Continuous Cash Benefit - BPC. This research's main purpose is to analyze the relationship between the main macroeconomic variables and the Federal government spending on social welfare policy in the period from January 2004 to August 2014. The used methodologies are the Vector auto regression model - VAR and Error Correction Vector - VEC. The conclusion, was that there is a meaningful relationship between macroeconomic variables and social assistance programs. This indicates that if the government takes a more abrupt resolution in changing the existing programs it will result in fluctuations in the main macroeconomic variables interfering with the stability of Brazilian domestic economy up to twelve months.

  8. Climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial europe: new evidence from wavelet analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Lee, Harry F

    2015-01-01

    The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60-80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15-35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory.

  9. Associations Between the Macroeconomic Indicators and Suicide Rates in India: Two Ecological Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, Anto P; Senthilkumar, P; Gayathri, K; Shyamsundar, G; Jacob, K S

    2015-01-01

    While western studies have focused on the importance of psychiatric illnesses in the complex pathways leading to suicides, several Indian studies have highlighted the important contributions by economic, social, and cultural factors. Hence, we tested the hypothesis that annual national suicide rates and suicide rates of the different states in India were associated with macroeconomic indices. Data from the National crime records bureau, Ministry of finance, labour bureau, Government of India, population commission, and planning commission official portals, World Bank and the United Nations were accessed. We assessed the correlations of annual national and state-wise suicide rates with macroeconomic, health, and other indices using ecological study design for India, and for its different states and union territories. We documented statistically significant associations between the suicide rates and per capita gross domestic product, consumer price index, foreign exchange, trade balance, total health expenditure as well as literacy rates. As recent economic growth in India is associated with increasing suicide rates, macroeconomic policies emphasizing equitable distribution of resources may help curtailing the population suicide rates in India.

  10. Oil production, oil prices, and macroeconomic adjustment under different wage assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, C.; Maleka, P.T.

    1992-01-01

    In a previous paper one of the authors developed a simple model to try to identify the possible macroeconomic adjustment processes arising in an economy experiencing a temporary period of oil production, under alternative wage adjustment assumptions, namely nominal and real wage rigidity. Certain assumptions were made regarding the characteristics of actual production, the permanent revenues generated from that oil production, and the net exports/imports of oil. The role of the price of oil, and possible changes in that price was essentially ignored. Here we attempt to incorporate the price of oil, as well as changes in that price, in conjunction with the production of oil, the objective being to identify the contribution which the price of oil, and changes in it, make to the adjustment process itself. The emphasis in this paper is not given to a mathematical derivation and analysis of the model's dynamics of adjustment or its comparative statics, but rather to the derivation of simulation results from the model, for a specific assumed case, using a numerical algorithm program, conducive to the type of theoretical framework utilized here. The results presented suggest that although the adjustment profiles of the macroeconomic variables of interest, for either wage adjustment assumption, remain fundamentally the same, the magnitude of these adjustments is increased. Hence to derive a more accurate picture of the dimensions of adjustment of these macroeconomic variables, it is essential to include the price of oil as well as changes in that price. (Author)

  11. Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

    2011-03-31

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

  12. Estimating bounds on the macroeconomic effects of the Clean Energy Future policy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A. H.; DeCanio, S. J.; Boyd, G. A.

    2000-04-04

    The Clean Energy Future (CEF) is a partial equilibrium study in that it focuses specifically on markets for energy services. It is also important, however, to consider potential effects of the CEF policies on overall economic performance. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to provide a framework for interpreting the macroeconomic (or second-order) effects that might occur under the types of scenarios analyzed in the CEF, and (2) to obtain a range of estimates of these effects associated with the Moderate and Advanced scenarios as described in the CEF study. In this paper the authors consider results from both types of model in the context of the CEF study. The primary framework and calculations focus on the second meaning given above of the term macroeconomic and the associated CGE models, because these are appropriate for analysis on the time scales of the CEF, through 2010 or 2020. Because the Keynesian-style macroeconomic models are designed and suited for short-term forecasting, they also discuss the application of one such model to the analysis of the shorter-horizon effects of certain policies to reduce carbon emissions.

  13. An empirical analysis of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors affecting liquidity of Indian banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamika Singh

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates bank-specific and macroeconomic factors that determine the liquidity of Indian banks. To explore the association, we perform OLS, fixed effect and random effect estimates on a data set of 59 banks from 2000 to 2013. Studied bank-specific factors include bank size, profitability, cost of funding, capital adequacy and deposits. GDP, inflation and unemployment are the macroeconomic factors considered. We also perform liquidity trend analysis of Indian banks based on ownership. Findings reveal that bank ownership affects liquidity of banks. Based on panel data analysis, we suggest that bank-specific (except cost of funding and macroeconomic (except unemployment factors significantly affect bank liquidity. These include bank size, deposits, profitability, capital adequacy, GDP and inflation. Further, bank size and GDP were found to have a negative effect on bank liquidity. On the other hand, deposits, profitability, capital adequacy and inflation showed a positive effect on bank liquidity. Cost of funding and unemployment showed an insignificant effect on bank liquidity. Our paper highlights new facts for enhanced understanding of liquidity in emerging economies like India.

  14. The Social Form of Wealth as a Dominant in the Development Potential of Modern Macroeconomic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silantiev Oleh I.

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The publication is aimed at researching the role of the social form of wealth and its constituents in the development potential of modern macroeconomic systems. The essence of social wealth has been disclosed and the concept of «social form of wealth» has been defined. The ability of social capital to promote materialization of the potential reserves of development of society is characterized, that is caused by its productive value when it develops itself and develops possibilities of increase of other forms of wealth in certain combinations. The ability of social capital to be integrated into a reproduced process at almost any stage of the latter has been determined. Presence of a controversy between the traditional capitalist way of production of wealth (with a focus on the growth of private wealth corporations and post-industrial (which in practice is manifested in the asymmetry of information has been proved. It has been determined that the social capital is considered as an individual property of everyone, which, however, can become a public (collective resource in whole or in part. The importance of the carried out research is an improvement of theoretical approaches to understanding how the volume of social wealth, accumulated by macroeconomic systems, impacts economic-social development. Prospects for further research are an in-depth study of the relationship between the social wealth of macroeconomic systems and the volume of their wealth.

  15. Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ali Nasir

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The association between economic and financial stabilities and influence of macroeconomic policies on the financial sector creates scope of active policy role in financial stability. As a contribution to the existing body of knowledge, this study has analysed the implications of macroeconomic policy interaction/coordination for financial stability, proxied by financial assets, i.e. equity and bonds price oscillation. The critical review and analysis of the existing literature on the subject suggests that there is also ample evidence of interdependence between monetary and fiscal policies and this interrelation necessitates coordination between them for the sake of financial stability. There is also a case for analysing the symmetry of financial markets responses to macroeconomic policy interaction. On methodological and empirical grounds, it is vital to test the robustness of policy recommendations to overcome the limitation of a single empirical approach (Jeffrey–Lindley’s paradox. Hence, the Frequentist and Bayesian approaches should be used in commentary manner. The policy interaction and optimal policy combination should also be analysed in the context of institutional design and major financial events to gain insight into the implications of policy interaction in the periods of stable economic and financial environments as well as period of financial and economic distress.

  16. Differential Equations Compatible with KZ Equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felder, G.; Markov, Y.; Tarasov, V.; Varchenko, A.

    2000-01-01

    We define a system of 'dynamical' differential equations compatible with the KZ differential equations. The KZ differential equations are associated to a complex simple Lie algebra g. These are equations on a function of n complex variables z i taking values in the tensor product of n finite dimensional g-modules. The KZ equations depend on the 'dual' variable in the Cartan subalgebra of g. The dynamical differential equations are differential equations with respect to the dual variable. We prove that the standard hypergeometric solutions of the KZ equations also satisfy the dynamical equations. As an application we give a new determinant formula for the coordinates of a basis of hypergeometric solutions

  17. Resource price turbulence and macroeconomic adjustment for a resource exporter. A conceptual framework for policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, Grant M.; Harvie, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Increased global demand for energy and other resources, particularly from the rapidly developing economies of China and India and the opening up of global resource markets to global investors and speculative activity, has resulted in considerable recent turbulence in resource prices. The recent magnitude of change in resource prices, both positive and negative, and their macroeconomic implications is of considerable contemporary importance to both resource importing and exporting economies. For a resource exporting economy, such as that of Australia, the recent resource price boom has resulted in: increased government taxation revenue, increased employment and wages in the resource and resource related sectors, increased spending in the domestic economy that contributed to buoyant economic growth, increased resource exports to the booming economies of China and India and contributed to a stronger domestic currency with beneficial effects upon inflation. On the other hand these developments have had adverse effects on the non-resource sector by: subjecting it to more intense competition for limited resources, contributing to a loss of international competitiveness and reduced exports arising from a stronger exchange rate, reducing employment in the relatively more labour intensive non-resource sector, and contributing to an eventual slow down in the overall economy. These positive and negative effects, and the overall impact of a resource price boom, require a fundamentally closer analysis of the structure of the economy under scrutiny. In this context the policy response by government is likely to be pivotal in determining the overall macroeconomic outcomes from a resource price boom. The aim of this paper is to develop a generic analytical framework to appraise economic outcomes in the wake of a resource price boom for a resource producing and exporting economy. To this end a dynamic long run macroeconomic model is developed, emphasising the important role and

  18. FINANCIAL CRISIS FROM THE MACROECONOMIC LEVEL TO THE MICROECONOMIC LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANDA GHEORGHE GABRIEL

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The current economic and financial crisis, beyond the problems it generates both at micro and macro level, should determine an adaptation of the mechanisms, institutions and monetary / financial policies to the real economy we are facing. The issue of financial crises is extremely complex, including a series of quantitative and qualitative factors, financial, economic, social, ethical, technological and human, which can intervene and influence the financial operations in a country or several countries simultaneously. We believe that it is difficult to appreciate that a traditional model might explain a financial crisis, given that every context of occurrence, conditions of development and crisis settlement programs are unique and unrepeatable. Every crisis has in its structure certain issues that may be capitalized and can lead to success. Perhaps more obvious are the ways that can lead to total failure of the organization. Finding and capitalizing the potential success is the essence of the crisis management. The essence of the mismanagement of the crisis is to worse situation. The successful management of a crisis involves admitting that you are facing a crisis, taking reasonable measures to remedy the situation, to be seen taking them and heard saying the right words. The issue at this stage of crisis management is that perception becomes true reality. Crisis management is a set of factors designed to combat the crisis and reduce the damage caused by the crisis. In other words, crisis management attempts to prevent or reduce the negative effects of the crisis and protect the organization, the public involved and the specific field by the possible damages. The effective management of the crisis includes crisis communication. This is an essential component through which the organization faced with the difficult situation can rehabilitate it’s publicly image or even to improve it. The crisis communication occurs between the organization and

  19. Simultaneous Balancing and Model Reduction of Switched Linear Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Monshizadeh, Nima; Trentelman, Hendrikus; Camlibel, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, first, balanced truncation of linear systems is revisited. Then, simultaneous balancing of multiple linear systems is investigated. Necessary and sufficient conditions are introduced to identify the case where simultaneous balancing is possible. The validity of these conditions is not limited to a certain type of balancing, and they are applicable for different types of balancing corresponding to different equations, like Lyapunov or Riccati equations. The results obtained are ...

  20. Localization of the eigenvalues of linear integral equations with applications to linear ordinary differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloss, J. M.; Kranzler, S. K.

    1972-01-01

    The equivalence of a considered integral equation form with an infinite system of linear equations is proved, and the localization of the eigenvalues of the infinite system is expressed. Error estimates are derived, and the problems of finding upper bounds and lower bounds for the eigenvalues are solved simultaneously.

  1. Simultaneous Cake Cutting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balkanski, Eric; Branzei, Simina; Kurokawa, David

    2014-01-01

    We introduce the simultaneous model for cake cutting (the fair allocation of a divisible good), in which agents simultaneously send messages containing a sketch of their preferences over the cake. We show that this model enables the computation of divisions that satisfy proportionality — a popular...

  2. Numerical solution of Boltzmann's equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sod, G.A.

    1976-04-01

    The numerical solution of Boltzmann's equation is considered for a gas model consisting of rigid spheres by means of Hilbert's expansion. If only the first two terms of the expansion are retained, Boltzmann's equation reduces to the Boltzmann-Hilbert integral equation. Successive terms in the Hilbert expansion are obtained by solving the same integral equation with a different source term. The Boltzmann-Hilbert integral equation is solved by a new very fast numerical method. The success of the method rests upon the simultaneous use of four judiciously chosen expansions; Hilbert's expansion for the distribution function, another expansion of the distribution function in terms of Hermite polynomials, the expansion of the kernel in terms of the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the Hilbert operator, and an expansion involved in solving a system of linear equations through a singular value decomposition. The numerical method is applied to the study of the shock structure in one space dimension. Numerical results are presented for Mach numbers of 1.1 and 1.6. 94 refs, 7 tables, 1 fig

  3. Macroeconomic Determinants of IPO Activity in Poland between 1993 and 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvia Kovandová

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the article: This study deals with recent primary stock market developments in Poland and aims to indicate the influence of local macroeconomic indicators on IPO numbers over the period of 1993 to 2012. Methodology/methods: Descriptive statistics are used to analyse capital market and IPO developments and the Spearman correlation analysis identifies the relations between macroeconomic determinants and the IPO numbers. The data were evaluated at the significance level of α=5%. The entire statistical evaluation was performed by Statistica.CZ, Version 12. Scientific aim: The scientific aim of this article is to explore external factors that may influence the decision of enterprises to go public in the Polish capital market and thus to enlarge the current IPO literature with an analysis the following issue: What are the key local macroeconomic determinants of going public on the market in question? The number of variables used in this paper is greater than those considered in previous Polish IPO studies. Moreover, we focus on IPO activities between 1993 and 2012 and thus extend the existing time-series. Findings: The results of the correlation analysis can be summarized as follows. First of all, the hypothesis that the business cycle and stock index returns have explanatory power for the number of IPOs could not be supported by empirical evidence. On the other hand, we found empirical support that the reference interest rate affected the IPO numbers. Conclusions: The hypothesis that the reference interest rate has explanatory power for IPO numbers in the Polish capital market could be supported by empirical evidence. On the other hand we could not confirm any significant lagged effects concerning the relationship between other explanatory variables and the dependent variable. Therefore, our results suggest only a partial consistency with the theory and findings of previous Polish IPO studies.

  4. THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON COMPETITION POLICY EFFECTIVENESS WITHIN EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragoi Ionut

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, more and more countries have enacted competition laws, understanding the importance of this process in providing a normal functioning of the economy. Analyzing competition policy effectiveness is important not only because of the recent extent of the phenomenon, but also because of the impact of competition policy effectiveness on economic development and, in the current economic climate, on the economic recovery process. For this reason, quantitative evaluation for competition policy effectiveness became very useful as data handling and understanding the whole phenomenon are easier this way and an international perspective is provided. This was made possible by various international institutions that have created a system of aggregated indicators for the evaluation of competition law enforcement and competition advocacy (perceived effectiveness. The purpose of our research is to identify the macroeconomic factors that influence the effectiveness of competition law implementation within the European Union Member States. We have tasted the influence of 13 macroeconomic, using panel data methodology and data from the last four years. We obtained ß coefficients statistically significant only for 11 of them. The results are consistent with prior analyzed studies and economic logic: positive influence from market division, intensity of local competition, ethical behavior of firms, strength of auditing and reporting standards, efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes, protection of minority shareholders’ interests, public trust of politicians, economic dimension and market size and negative influence from corruption level and diversion of public funds. Based on the achieved results we can perform an analysis of principal components leading to causal space reduction with minimal information loss and without informational redundancy, creating the premises for building a model that explains competition policy

  5. Methodological Bases for Ranking the European Union Countries in Terms of Macroeconomic Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tymoshenko Olena V.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental contradictions of existing methodical approaches to assessing the level of the state economic security have been substantiated and proposals on the introduction of a unified methodology for its assessment, which would be acceptable for use at the international level or for a specific cluster of countries, have been developed. Based on the conducted researches it has been found that the there are no unified signs for such classification of countries. To determine the most significant coefficients and critical values of the indicators of economic security, it is appropriate that the countries should be grouped in terms of the level of the economic development proposed by the UN Commission and the IMF. Analysis of the economic security level has been conducted for the countries-members of the European Union as a separate cluster of countries on the example of macroeconomic security indicators. Based on the evaluation it has been found that the proposed list of indicators and their critical values is economically sound and built on the principle of adequacy, representativeness and comprehensiveness. In 2004 the most secure countries of the EU corresponding to the macroeconomic security standards were Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and as in 2014 the percentage of absolutely secure countries decreased from 14.3 to 7.1%, only Denmark and Sweden remained in the ranking. During the analyzed period Bulgaria and Croatia got into the risk zone, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania were in a danger zone. In 2014 Ukraine in terms of its macroeconomic security was in a critical state, which testified about serious structural and system imbalances in its development.

  6. Development assistance for health: should policy-makers worry about its macroeconomic impact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavagnero, Eleonora; Lane, Christopher; Evans, David B; Carrin, Guy

    2008-11-01

    Many low-income countries need to substantially increase expenditure to meet universal coverage goals for essential health services but, because they have very low-incomes, most will be unable to raise adequate funds exclusively from domestic sources in the short to medium term. Increased aid for health will be required. However, there has long been a concern that the rapid arrival of large amounts of foreign exchange in a country could lead to an increase in inflation and loss of international competitiveness, with an adverse impact on exports and economic growth, an economic phenomenon termed 'Dutch disease'. We review cross-country and country-level empirical studies and propose a simple framework to gauge the extent of macroeconomic risks. Of the 15 low-income countries that are increasing aid-financed health spending, 7 have high macroeconomic risks that may constrain the sustained expansion of spending. These conditions also apply in one-quarter of the 42 countries not presently increasing spending. Health authorities should be aware of the multiple risk factors at play, including factors that are health-sector specific and others that generally are not. They should also realize that there are effective means for mitigating the risk of Dutch disease associated with increasing development assistance for health. International partners also have an important role to play since more sustainable and predictable flows of donor funding will allow more productivity enhancing investment in physical and human capital, which will also contribute to ensuring there are few harmful macroeconomic effects of increases in aid.

  7. The influence of macroeconomic factors to the dynamics of stock exchange in the republic of Kazakhstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakizada Uteulievna Niyazbekova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the influence of macroeconomic factors on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange Market by using data from 2005 to 2014. Engle-Granger cointegration test has shown that stock index is cointegrated with the exchange rate, interest rate, CPI and oil price. Vector error correction model has confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the stock index has a long-term equilibrium relationship. Moreover, empirical results have shown that stock index can be used as a leading indicator of the economic situation in Kazakhstan. Therefore, the authors decided to consider the impact of major macroeconomic indicators to the dynamics of the stock market of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The Engle-Granger cointegration test results show that the following variables such as exchange rate, 10-years long-term bond rate, the consumer price index and the Brent oil price are cointegrated with stock index, which means that there is a long-term relationship between this stock market index and these variables. With the help of econometric models, the authors have found the factors such as the exchange rate, the 10-year long-term bonds rate, the consumer price index and the Brent oil price (these factors have the long-term relationship with stock market index. Changes in the dynamics of the stock market index in Kazakhstan are caused by changes in the dynamics of Central bank's reserves and export. The analysis has shown that the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the index reflects the situation in the real sector of the economy remains dependent on world oil prices, the volume of exports and the rate of the national currency

  8. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MACROECONOMIC STABILISATION PENTAGON IN ROMANIA, CZECH REPUBLIC AND HUNGARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionita Rodica Oana

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to achieve the pentagon analysis of macroeconomic stabilization in Romania, Czech Republic and Hungary in the period 2000 to 2013. It is a comparative analysis of the countries above mentioned in terms of the five key targets of economic policy, aiming the increasing, dynamic balance of each economy: economic growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, the budget deficit as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, the current account deficit of the balance of payments as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The main objective of each economy which passes from planned to market economy should be to cease the economic decline, followed by the elimination of internal and external imbalances and only after that it should be followed by a continuous growth process. All the above mentioned indicators shall be represented on an ad hoc graduated scale. The period of research was chosen so as to obtain a view of the macroeconomic policies in transition from one period to another, in order to highlight the common as well as the main differences in the approach used for economy stabilization. Therefore I have computed the graphical analysis of macroeconomic stabilization pentagon for the three countries in the period 2000- 2013 to captures the dynamics of the economic policy mix. This benchmark tool shows the interdependence which exists between inflation and other important economic indicators. The events occurred in the period starting with 2007/2008 have raised the interest of economics researchers, highlighting the need for significant improvements in the surveillance of the economic and financial system. The global fragility generated concerns regarding the vulnerabilities and causes which led to the occurrence of such events, thus generating different measurement techniques. Despite all its advantages, this approach has a significant limitation consisting in the fact that it can only reveal a picture without surprising other

  9. A guide for estimating dynamic panel models: the macroeconomics models specifiness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coletta, Gaetano

    2005-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to review estimators for dynamic panel data models, a topic in which the interest has grown recently. As a consequence 01 this late interest, different estimation techniques have been proposed in the last few years and, given the last development of the subject, there is still a lack 01 a comprehensive guide for panel data applications, and for macroeconomics panel data models in particular. Finally, we also provide some indications about the Stata software commands to estimate dynamic panel data models with the techniques illustrated in the paper [it

  10. THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON STOCK RETURNS ON DHAKA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Monjurul Quadir

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables of treasury bill interest rate and industrial production on stock returns on Dhaka Stock Exchange for the period between January 2000 and February 2007 on the basis of monthly time series data using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model. The paper has taken the overall market stock returns as an independent variable. It does not consider the stock returns of different companies separately. Though the ARIMA model finds a positive relationship between Treasury bill interest rate and industrial production with market stock returns but the coefficients have turned out to be statistically insignificant.

  11. Macroeconomic Determinants of Migrants’ Remittances: Evidence from a Panel of Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safaa Tabit

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to assess the various macroeconomic determinants of migrants’ remittances for a panel of 22 developing countries highly dependent observed over the period 1990 to 2014. The results underline the importance of the origin country’s GDP, the host country’s GDP, inflation, financial development and institutional quality as major determinants of personal remittances. However, the migrant stock, the official exchange rate and the real interest rate in the country of origin do not have a significant influence on remittances received by the panel considered.

  12. North Sea oil, the UK economy and macroeconomic adjustment -an overview, theoretical and simulation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, Charles

    1992-01-01

    The discovery and production of oil from the UK sector of the North Sea has had, and will continue to have for some time yet, an important impact upon developments in that economy. This paper is concerned with identifying the major characteristics of this oil production, and the macroeconomic developments which have arisen in the UK during its period of production. A theoretical framework, incorporating these characteristics, is developed, to identify the contribution of oil production and price changes to these as well as future developments. (author)

  13. Macroeconomic and financial market volatilities: an empirical evidence of factor model

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Choun Yu

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we provide two empirical findings. First, exploring 140 monthly macroeconomic and financial variables and applying the principal components method, we find 12 static factors and 8 dynamic factors from 1959 to 2005 in the US. Second, we find the real factor and interest rate factor have been less volatile since the mid 1980s. The price factor and foreign exchange factor, in contrast, became more volatile in the late 1990s. The rest of the factors show no obvious pattern. We find...

  14. Management of Internal and External Factors of Decisive Policies in Agriculture in Macroeconomic Crisis Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanghele Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of internal and external factors directly influencing the decisions implemented by the managerial act at the macroeconomic analysis of the relations within this branch and sub-branches, of the disturbing factors with the implementation of some decisions to stop the phenomena of soil degradation and agricultural land and to preserve and develop their productive potential, a production surplus for ash consumption and ensuring a productive production for industrial consumption with the result of gaining added value and net profit as much as possible for the exploitation farms.

  15. The Macroeconomic Outlook and the Impact of the Global Crisis in the Euro Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mioara CHIRITA

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides general analysis and evolution of macroeconomic and financial indicators in the euro area, during the recent crisis 2008-2009. The financial market turmoil that began in 2007 led to a severe global economic downturn. The causes of the crisis, the effects on global financial markets, and the spillover to the economy are permanently examined by the analysts, but the final conclusions are not clear yet. The conclusion of this paper is that the global activity is recovering at varying speeds in some countries, tepidly in many of the advanced economies but solidly in most emerging and developing economies.

  16. Micro-foundations for macroeconomics: New set-up based on statistical physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

    2016-12-01

    Modern macroeconomics is built on "micro foundations." Namely, optimization of micro agent such as consumer and firm is explicitly analyzed in model. Toward this goal, standard model presumes "the representative" consumer/firm, and analyzes its behavior in detail. However, the macroeconomy consists of 107 consumers and 106 firms. For the purpose of analyzing such macro system, it is meaningless to pursue the micro behavior in detail. In this respect, there is no essential difference between economics and physics. The method of statistical physics can be usefully applied to the macroeconomy, and provides Keynesian economics with correct micro-foundations.

  17. The Probability of Default Under IFRS 9: Multi-period Estimation and Macroeconomic Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Vaněk

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a straightforward, flexible and intuitive computational framework for the multi-period probability of default estimation incorporating macroeconomic forecasts. The concept is based on Markov models, the estimated economic adjustment coefficient and the official economic forecasts of the Czech National Bank. The economic forecasts are taken into account in a separate step to better distinguish between idiosyncratic and systemic risk. This approach is also attractive from the interpretational point of view. The proposed framework can be used especially when calculating lifetime expected credit losses under IFRS 9.

  18. Macroeconomic situation in Moldova in terms of the economic crisis 2008-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihail PĂDUREAN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The world economic crisis has exerted a negative impact on the economic development of Moldova, but recent trends show that since 2010 the country has been recording a small economic growth. The article examines the problems faced by the Moldavian economy during recession, as well as the subsequent changes with reference to macroeconomic indicators. The paper is a review of the materials of the Institute of Economics of the Republic of Moldova and other institutions, as well as a collection of literature and the author's own opinions. It makes use of the descriptive method and deductive and inductive reasoning.

  19. Model developer`s appendix to the model documentation report: NEMS macroeconomic activity module

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-07-15

    The NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) tested here was used to generate the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94). MAM is a response surface model, not a structural model, composed of three submodules: the National Submodule, the Interindustry Submodule, and the Regional Submodule. Contents of this report are as follows: properties of the mathematical solution; NEMS MAM empirical basis; and scenario analysis. Scenario analysis covers: expectations for scenario analysis; historical world oil price scenario; AEO94 high world oil price scenario; AEO94 low world oil price scenario; and immediate increase world oil price scenario.

  20. Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related

  1. Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagaglia, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

  2. Out of sight but not out of mind: Home countries' macroeconomic volatilities and immigrants' mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke Brian

    2018-01-01

    We provide the first empirical evidence that better economic performances by immigrants' countries of origin, as measured by lower consumer price index (CPI) or higher gross domestic product, improve immigrants' mental health. We use an econometrically-robust approach that exploits exogenous changes in macroeconomic conditions across immigrants' home countries over time and controls for immigrants' observable and unobservable characteristics. The CPI effect is statistically significant and sizeable. Furthermore, the CPI effect diminishes as the time since emigrating increases. By contrast, home countries' unemployment rates and exchange rate fluctuations have no impact on immigrants' mental health. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. QMM – A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy. Version 2.0

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ólafsson, Tjörvi

    This paper documents and describes Version 2.0 of the Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Central Bank of Iceland (QMM). QMM and the underlying quarterly database have been under construction since 2001 at the Research and Forecasting Division of the Economics Department at the Bank and was first...... implemented in the forecasting round for the Monetary Bulletin 2006/1 in March 2006. QMM is used by the Bank for forecasting and various policy simulations and therefore plays a key role as an organisational framework for viewing the medium-term future when formulating monetary policy at the Bank. This paper...

  4. BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY IMPACT ON RUSSIAN MACROECONOMICS INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheveleva O. A.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the interaction between the production macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy and MIBOR (the main operational benchmark of the Bank of Russia, as well as the relationship between the inflation indicators and money supply were investigated with Bayesian approach. Conjugate Normal Inverse Wishart Prior was used. According to the study, tough monetary policy has a deterrent effect on the Russian economy. The growth of the money market rate causes a reduction in investments and output in the main sectors of the economy, as well as a drop in the income of the population with an increase in the unemployment rate.

  5. Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Budget Deficit in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayesha Mushtaq

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to empirically investigate the relationship between budget deficit and macroeconomic factors i.e., financial development indicator, economic growth, changes in price level and real exchange rate, by using data from1980-2011 for Pakistan. The results reveal that there is a positive and significant relationship between real effective exchange rate and budget deficit on one hand, while economic growth and financial development indicator with reference to budget deficit on the other hand. Changes in price level have a significant and negative relationship with the budget deficit in Pakistan.

  6. Un modelo Macroeconométrico para la Economía Colombiana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Arturo Birchenall

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Este documento analiza un modelo macroeconométrico de corto plazo para la economía colombiana, con el fin de evaluar el impacto de procesos de ajuste y estabilización. Se basa en una estructura que reconoce no neutralidades por rigideces de precios y descompone la economía a través de oferta y demanda agregada. El modelo se estima por diversos métodos para el período comprendido entre 1977 y 1998 con una frecuencia trimestral, con el fin de realizar proyecciones para períodos de uno y dos años.

  7. The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Financial Expenditures and Development of the Marketing Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Tarka

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This article diagnoses the selected macroeconomic factors, such as: rate of unemployment, inflation, GDP, spending power of the households, and characterizes their indirect impact on the enterprises' market research expenditures and research industry turnovers. The problems of financial expenditures, i.e., their allocation on the marketing researches (depending on the supply and demand market situational perspective in a given market are also discussed. Moreover, as indicated in the article, enterprises are forced not only to cut their financial sources on the marketing research projects in unfavorable economic situation, but they choose different methods of the research.

  8. The macroeconomic factors impact on the Level of Food Expenditure of St. Petersburg Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Bulatova Anastasiia

    2016-01-01

    The topic of this research is the impact of the macroeconomic factors on food spending residents of St. Petersburg. The problem of the study is the ambiguity of the food sanctions impact on the consumer spending on food. The aim of the work are the trend analyze in the level of food spending in St. Petersburg since the first quarter of 2007 to the third quarter 2015, and the identifying of factors influencing these food waste. St. Petersburg was chosen because it is a city with a large popula...

  9. Capire la realtà macroeconomica: una sfida* ( The challenge of macroeconomic understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. MALINVAUD

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Il documento è un contributo ad una serie di ricordi e riflessioni sulle esperienze professionali di illustri economisti con Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review iniziati nel 1979. In esso Edmond Malinvaud descrive le varie sfide che percepito nel cercare di capire macroeconomiaThe paper is a contribution to a series of recollections and reflections on the professional experiences of distinguished economists which the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review started in 1979. In it Edmond Malinvaud describes the various challenges he perceived in trying to understand macroeconomics.JEL: B31, E00

  10. Flexibility of wages and macroeconomic instability in an agent-based computational model with endogenous money

    OpenAIRE

    Pascal Seppecher

    2010-01-01

    This article has been published in a revised form in Macroeconomic Dynamics [http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100511000447]. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works.; International audience; We present a model of a dynamic and complex economy in which the creation and the destruction of money result from interactions between multiple and heterogeneous agents. In the baseline scenario, we observe t...

  11. Impacts of Exchange Rate Regime Choice on Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rüstem Yanar

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regime choice on macroeconomic performance after Bretton Woods in emerging market countries. It is studied especially inflation, growth and financial crises. It’s found that for emerging market countries, fixed regimes are associated with lower inflation than floats. On growth effect of exchange rate regime choice is not same all period. Fixed regimes are associated with faster growth but after 1990 fixed regimes brought about slower growth. At the same time, fixed exchange rate regimes are associated with financial fragility after 1990 in emerging markets

  12. Simultaneous viscous-inviscid coupling via transpiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiu, K.F.C.; Giles, M.B.

    1995-01-01

    In viscous-inviscid coupling analysis, the direct coupling technique and the inverse coupling technique are commonly adopted. However, stability and convergence of the algorithms derived are usually very unsatisfactory. Here, by using the transpiration technique to simulate the effect of the displacement thickness, a new simultaneous coupling method is derived. The integral boundary layer equations and the full potential equation are chosen to be the viscous-inviscid coupled system. After discretization, the Newton-Raphson technique is proposed to solve the coupled nonlinear system. Several numerical results are used to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. 15 refs., 23 figs

  13. Extended rate equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shore, B.W.

    1981-01-01

    The equations of motion are discussed which describe time dependent population flows in an N-level system, reviewing the relationship between incoherent (rate) equations, coherent (Schrodinger) equations, and more general partially coherent (Bloch) equations. Approximations are discussed which replace the elaborate Bloch equations by simpler rate equations whose coefficients incorporate long-time consequences of coherence

  14. Ratings of Sovereign Risk and the Macroeconomics Fundamentals of the countries: a Study Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osvaldo Cândido da Silva Filho

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available To minimize the consequences of asymmetric information, the sovereign risk ratings are instruments that constitute a key piece in the determination of credit market conditions, essential to the growth of developing countries like Brazil. In the present work we studied based on macroeconomics foundations, a classification to sovereign risk ratings realized by the ratings agencies finding the classification using Artificial Neural Networks. We observed homogeneity degree between the attributions of agencies and macroeconomics foundations in the countries of sample which four of foundations seem to be more directly connected with these attributions. After, in a comparative static exercise, we use the model to make simulations of scenarios of the credit external conditions for the Brazilian economy, changing the macroeconomics foundations which we noted that agencies expected for more per capita income increasing and decrease of public debt. (Full article in Portuguese only

  15. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISONS OF THE BUSINESS SECTOR IN ROMANIA IN REGIONAL AND NATIONAL LEVEL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DOBROTĂ GABRIELA

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the response capacity of business environment in the manifestation of some risks of a large amplitude can be achieved by identifying the evolution of fundamental macroeconomic indicators, both in good periods from economically point of view as well as in the difficult phases. This article reflects the evolution of the most important macroeconomic indicators in Romania, before and after the crisis triggered in 2008, at the global and regional level. Also, it represent an radiography of the business environment, from point of view of the evolution of the active entreprises and of their results, which was obtained in the context of the macroeconomics politics promoted by the different gouvernment. The overall conclusion that can be drawn is that the objective of achieving economic growth by all means can have undesirable effects, represented by overheating of the economy and instability.

  16. Simultaneity, relativity and conventionality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janis, Allen I.

    2008-01-01

    The view of simultaneity presented by Max Jammer is almost breathtaking, encompassing, as the book's subtitle suggests, the period from antiquity to the 21st century. Many interesting things are to be found along the way. For example, what Jammer (p. 49) says "may well be regarded as probably the earliest recorded example of an operational definition of distant simultaneity" is due to St. Augustine (in his Confessions, written in 397 A.D.; for a modern translation, see Augustine, 2006). He was arguing against astrology by presenting the story of two women, one rich and one poor, who gave birth simultaneously. Although the two children thus had precisely the same horoscopes, their lives followed quite different courses. And how was it determined that the births were simultaneous? A messenger went from each birth site to the other, leaving the instant the child was born (and, presumably, traveling with equal speeds). Since the messengers met at the midpoint between the locations of the two births, the births must have been simultaneous. This is, of course, quite analogous to Albert Einstein's definition of simultaneity (given more than 1500 years later), which will be discussed in Section 2.1.

  17. Report of the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health: a critique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerji, Debabar

    2002-01-01

    The World Health Organization has been able to interest some of the world's top economists in joining the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, to study macroeconomics of health services for the poor peoples of the world. The commission has been ahistorical, apolitical, and atheoretical. It has adopted a selective approach to conform to a preconceived ideology. It has ignored earlier work done in this field. And it has pointedly ignored such major developments in the health services as the Alma-Ata Declaration. These failings have brought the quality of the scholastic work to an almost rock-bottom level. The commission's tunnel vision in its recommendations on so important a subject is not surprising. Its emphatic recommendations for perpetuating vertical programs against major communicable diseases (tuberculosis, AIDS, and malaria) on the grounds that such programs have proved convenient to "donors" reveals the real motivations for an almost openly ideology-driven agenda. This is a serious danger signal for scholars who wish to take a scientific attitude toward program formulations for the poor that provide maximum returns from limited resources. The concept of DALYs (disability adjusted life years) is bristling with gross infirmities. The WHO-generated data used for DALY calculations, converted into dollar terms, are patently invalid, unreliable, and not comparable between and even within countries.

  18. Western Balkans’ Banking Sector Performance in Terms of Macroeconomic and Bank Specific Efficiency Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindita Varesi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Main objective of this study is to analyse banking efficiency and productivity considering evidences from Western Balkan countries in pre-crisis, during and the recovery period. Referring to the historic background and the transformations suffered, the WB countries have developed bank based financial structure so the soundness of the banking sector is significantly important for the stability and progress of their economies on the long run. The problems faced by the last recession, the deteriorated macroeconomic indicators and weak, inefficient banking sector translated in slow recovery rates, encouraged this study. Prior studies have been mainly focused in causes and effects of crisis in different sectors of economies while this paper presents relations and dependencies between the macroeconomic and bank specific efficiency determinants. The methodology used is the comparison between countries and as method the financial ratio analysis, intending the presentation of trends and evaluation of changes in efficiency, profitability and performance indicators during 2000- 2007 comparing with 2008-2013. Results that the banking sector profitability indicators follow the same negative trend with the economic growth rates and the recovery rates are lower than the forecasted. The results can be used by performance monitors to better identify vulnerabilities and examine uncertainties/risks.

  19. Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic instabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaya Camara Seydou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses macroeconomic instabilities according to exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Based on International Monetary Fund's exchange rate regimes de facto classification, the global sample, SSA, is first divided into two subsamples, which are countries within CFA franc zone (ZCFA and those outside CFA franc zone (HZCFA, and then into four categories, which are the Western Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, the countries CFA franc zone with fix exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FIX, and the countries outside CFA franc zone with flexible exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FLEX. By applying advanced statistical and econometric methods upon internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium conditions, we show that the inflation, the GDP (or the output and the real exchange rate (RER are very volatile in SSA. However, we found out that they are more volatile in the group HZCFA comparatively to the group ZCFA. We also found out that they are higher in the group HZCFA-FIX than the group HZCFA-FLEX. Moreover, we found out that a high instability of the inflation is combined with those of the output and the RER.

  20. Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. A case study of Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wicke, Birka; Smeets, Edward; Faaij, Andre; Tabeau, Andrzej; Hilbert, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input-output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural intensification, which is needed to make agricultural land become available for bioenergy production, are assessed following a scenario approach. The methodology is applied to a case study of Argentina. The results of this study reveal that large-scale pellet production in 2015 would directly increase GDP by 4%, imports by 10% and employment by 6% over the reference situation in 2001. When accounting for indirect and induced impacts, GDP increases by 18%, imports by 20% and employment by 26% compared to 2001. Agricultural intensification reduces but does not negate these positive impacts of bioenergy production. Accounting for agricultural intensification, the increase in GDP as a result of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land would amount to 16%, 20% in imports and 16% in employment compared to 2001. (author)

  1. The impact of the International Monetary Fund's macroeconomic policies on the AIDS pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Brook K

    2010-01-01

    Expansion of funding for HIV/AIDS, especially treatment, is under attack over concerns about cost effectiveness and financial constraints. The International Monetary Fund is deeply implicated in the history of the AIDS pandemic, the underlying weakness of health systems, and the ideology of constrained resources that underlies most attacks on AIDS funding. The IMF imposed structural violence on developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s through neoliberal and macroeconomic reforms that intensified individual and communal vulnerability to infection and dismantled already weak health systems. This same macroeconomic fundamentalism has recently been repackaged and renamed. IMF fundamentalist policies continue to prioritize low inflation, constricted government spending, robust foreign currency reserves, and prompt repayment of debt at the expense of investments in health and more expansionary, pro-growth and job-creation policies. Several recent surveys have concluded that the IMF reluctantly relaxed overly restrictive policy prescriptions in response to the global economic crisis, but this relaxation was temporary at best and only extended to countries previously acceding to IMF orthodoxy. AIDS activists are campaigning for billions of dollars to fulfill the promise of universal access. If IMF pressures persist, developing countries will continue to undermine the additionality of donor health financing by substituting donor for domestic financing, refusing to invest in recurrent costs for medicines and health workers, and neglecting needed investments in health infrastructure and health system strengthening.

  2. The macroeconomic effects of oil shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rates - a comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, C.

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to explore further, from a primarily theoretical perspective, the macroeconomic implications arising for an oil-producing economy operating with either a fixed or flexible exchange rate system - to explore, in particular, which of these two extreme systems best offers insulatory properties, in the sense of reducing the volatility of adjustment of key macroeconomic variables arising primarily from oil-related shocks. The issue is explored by analyzing a theoretical framework, which emphasizes the long-run nature of the adjustment process. Such an emphasis is particularly pertinent in models which assume that economic agents possess rational expectations, where long-run equilibrium will have a major bearing upon the short-run adjustment process itself. However, due to the complexity of the model developed here, it is not possible to derive analytical unambiguous results, hence emphasis is placed upon deriving results through numerical simulation. The results derived enable an identification to be made of the importance, for policy purposes, of implementing an appropriate exchange rate system for oil producing and exporting economics with the characteristics emphasised in this paper. (3 figures). (Author)

  3. Nationwide Macroeconomic Variables and the Growth Rate of Bariatric Surgeries in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzo, Everton; Ramos, Almino Cardoso; Pareja, José Carlos; Chaim, Elinton Adami

    2018-06-06

    The effect of nationwide economic issues on the necessary expansion in the number of bariatric procedures remains unclear. This study aims to determine whether there are correlations between the growth rate in the number of bariatric surgeries and the major macroeconomic variables over time in Brazil. It is a nationwide analysis regarding the number of bariatric surgeries in Brazil and the main national macroeconomic variables from 2003 through 2016: gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and the unemployment rate, as well as the evolution in the number of registered bariatric surgeons. There were significant positive correlations of the growth rate of surgeries with the early variations of the GDP (R = 0.5558; p = 0.04863) and of the overall health expenditure per capita (R = 0.78322; p = 0.00259). The growth rate of the number of bariatric surgeries was not correlated with the unemployment and inflation rates, as well as with the growth rate of available bariatric surgeons. There were direct relationships between the growth rate of bariatric surgeries and the evolutions of the GDP and health care expenditure per capita. These variables appear to influence the nationwide offer of bariatric surgery.

  4. Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardona, Omar D; Ordaz, Mario G; Marulanda, Mabel C; Carreño, Martha L; Barbat, Alex H

    2010-10-01

    The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision-making in disaster risk reduction. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  5. Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-09-01

    Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Level of Dollarization in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasnova Iryna V.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of the article are identifying causal relationships between the macroeconomic determinants and the level of dollarization in Ukraine, as well as determining the activities for de-dollarization. The prerequisites, causes and consequences of dollarization have been covered. On the external grounds, dollarization is recognized as a manifestation of financial integration, on internal grounds, as a consequence of financial instability. The main types and forms of dollarization have been allocated. Forms of financial dollarization have been considered as: deposit, credit and monetary. The determinants that potentially impact the dollarization level have been allocated. According to the results of a correlation analysis, the thesis of direct strong connection between dollarization and currency deposits, i.e. the dominance of deposit dollarization, has been confirmed. In order to determine the causal nature of the interdependencies between variables and the level of dollarization, a Granger causality test was carried out, which confirmed the hypothesis of the significant influence of psychological attitudes and the distrust of economic agents towards the policies of government and monetary authorities. A set of macroeconomic, market and incentive de-dollarization activities have been proposed.

  7. The macro-economic impact of a foot-and-mouth disease incursion in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belton, D J

    2004-01-01

    The 2001 outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in the United Kingdom heightened public concern in New Zealand about the economic consequences of an outbreak of FMD, and resulted in the Reserve Bank and Treasury conducting an assessment of the macro-economic impact of a small FMD outbreak in New Zealand. The study was based on a relatively small outbreak in which 50 properties were infected over a period of two months. Cumulative losses calculated over two years from the beginning of the hypothetical outbreak were estimated at around NZ dollars 10 billion, a figure twice as large as the initial Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry estimate. The main reason for this difference is that the Reserve Bank study included the additional macro-economic effects of a slump in domestic demand. The study also demonstrated that in New Zealand under the conditions of the current OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code for FMD, the economic impact of any programme to control FMD by vaccination in which vaccinated animals are not slaughtered, is significantly worse than rapid eradication by stamping out.

  8. The Effects of Domestic Macroeconomic Determinants on Stock Returns: A Sector Level Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şerife Özlen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Investment analysis should be carefully performed in stock markets. Therefore, firms take necessary actions according to stock market behavior and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the predictability of stock market determinants becomes important. This study aims to identify the effects of selected macroeconomic factors (interest rate, exchange rates, inflation-consumer price index, current account deficit, unemployment rates and sector indices on stock returns of selected 48 companies in 11 different sectors of Istanbul Stock Exchange including electric, food, communication, paper, chemistry, metal-main, metal-product, stone, textile, commerce and transportation sectors. The study employs ARDL approach on the period between the second month of 2005 and the second month of 2012 including 85 monthly observations. According to the results, Sector Indices are found to be quite influential through the selected sectors. Exchanges rate is also significantly influential on almost all the sectors except Communication and Textile sectors. The impacts of Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Current Account Deficit, and Unemployment Rate are various through the selected sectors. Moreover, the influence of Istanbul Stock Exchange Market on the stock returns of considered companies is significantly clear through the sectors except six companies (two companies from Paper sector, one company from Metal-Main sector, two companies from Stone sector and one company from Textile sector out of 48 companies. Since it includes a wide range of companies and sectors, this study is expected to be useful for all policy makers and investment decisions.

  9. Analysis of Budget Deficits and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: A VAR-VECM Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manamba Epaphra

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - This paper examines the relationship between budget deficits and selected macroeconomic variables in Tanzania for the period spanning from 1966 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses Vector autoregression (VAR - Vector Error Correction Model (VECM and variance decomposition techniques. The Johansen's test is applied to examine the long run relationship among the variables under study. Findings - The Johansen's test of cointegration indicates that the variables are cointegrated and thus have a long run relationship. The results based on the VAR-VECM estimation show that real GDP and exchange rate have a negative and significant relationship with budget deficit whereas inflation, money supply and lending interest rate have a positive one. Variance decomposition results show that variances in the budget deficits are mostly explained by the real GDP, followed by inflation and real exchange rate. Research implications/limitations - Results are very indicative, but highlight the importance of containing inflation and money supply to check their effects on budget deficits over the short run and long-run periods. Also, policy recommendation calls for fiscal authorities in Tanzania to adopt efficient and effective methods of tax collection and public sector spending. Originality/value/contribution - Tanzania has been experiencing budget deficit since the 1970s and that this budget deficit has been blamed for high indebtedness, inflation and poor investment and growth. The paper contributes to the empirical debate on the causal relationship between budget deficits and macroeconomic variables by employing VAR-VECM and variance decomposition approaches.

  10. Macroeconomic context of the trade branch development and position in Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Záboj

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with analysis of the macroeconomic associations of trade development and its position in Czech Republic as one of the national economy branch. The development of main macroeconomic indicators for period of 1998–2004 is completed and then it follows up with progress of the trade structures and trade chains. In that frame the given indicators (number of registered and active business units in trade, turnover and number of employees are monitoring according to Economic Subjects Register (provided by Czech Statistical Office and Classification of Economic Activities in the European Union. On the basis of research of consulting and research institutions the overview and turnover comparison for TOP 10 trade firms for period of 2000–2004 is carried out. Inseparable part of the paper is analysis of the Czech Republic foreign trade results. In this field the export, import and trade balance are discussing on the one hand in general and on the other hand in territorial and commodity structures.

  11. The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Activity in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuya Ito

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the beginning of the 1980s a large number of studies using a vector autoregressive (VAR model have been made on the macroeconomic effects of oil price changes. However, surprisingly few studies have so far focused on Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter. The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the impact of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables in Russia using the VAR model. The time span covered by the series is from 1994:Q1 to 2009:Q3, giving 63 observations. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase (decrease in oil prices contributes to the depreciation (appreciation of the exchange rate by 0.17% in the long run, whereas it leads to a 0.46% GDP growth (decline. Likewise, we find that in the short run (8 quarters rising oil prices cause not only the GDP growth and the exchange rate depreciation, but also a marginal increase in inflation rate.

  12. On capital flows and macroeconomic performance: Evidence before and after the financial crisis in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magda Kandil

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper sheds light on the Turkish experience of capital account liberalization and its effect on key macroeconomic variables, using quarterly data in a multivariate VAR model. We also take into consideration the crisis breakpoint in 2001 and estimate the effect of shocks attributed to capital flows, using quarterly data during the sub-periods 1989:01–2001:01 and 2001:02–2009:03. The findings indicate that capital flows have varying effects on the Turkish economy before and after the crisis in 2001 and the evidence supports significant effects of liberalizing financial flows on macroeconomic performance, especially during the post-crisis period (2001:02–2009:03. Moreover, this latter period exhibited evidence of sterilization policy that has helped mopping up excess liquidity and containing inflationary pressures. These factors seem to signal deliberate efforts by the Central Bank of Turkey to stem the risk of appreciation of the real exchange rate and preserve export competitiveness during periods of high financial inflows, a trend that has been reversed recently by the surge in outflows and currency depreciation in many emerging markets in anticipation of imminent normalization of monetary policy in the United States.

  13. EFFECTS OF CAPITAL FLIGHT AND ITS MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS ON AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1970-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Robert Usman

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examines the impact of capital fight and its macroeconomic determinants on agricultural growth in Nigeria from 1970 -2013. Data generated were analyzed using Unit root test, co-integration test, regression analysis. The study result found negative and insignificant relationship(P>0.05 between total capital flight and agricultural growth; meaning that capital flight has no direct impact on agricultural growth or the impact on agricultural growth is shadowed by the other macroeconomic variables in the system. Also, the stock of gross external debt (EXD variable showed positive and statistically significant relationship (P<0.05 with agricultural growth. The result shows that a unit change in EXD will bring about 24% change in the growth of agriculture provided other factors are kept constant. Political instability (POL variable has negative and significant effect on agricultural growth in Nigeria. The study recommends that Nigeria’s judicious use of the income accruing from loans and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI is paramount if Agricultural growth is to be enhanced. Furthermore, the overall peace, security of lives and property and guaranty of investment by the government is essential therefore; Government should take concerted step to improve security of life and property in the country.

  14. Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. A case study of Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wicke, Birka; Smeets, Edward; Faaij, Andre [Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation - Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht (Netherlands); Tabeau, Andrzej [Landbouw Economisch Instituut - Wageningen University and Research Centre, Burgermeester Partijnlaan 19, 2585 BE Den Haag (Netherlands); Hilbert, Jorge [Instituto Ingenieria Rural - Instituto Nacional de la Tecnologia Agropecuario, C.C. 25, 1712 Castelar (Buenos Aires) (Argentina)

    2009-12-15

    This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input-output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural intensification, which is needed to make agricultural land become available for bioenergy production, are assessed following a scenario approach. The methodology is applied to a case study of Argentina. The results of this study reveal that large-scale pellet production in 2015 would directly increase GDP by 4%, imports by 10% and employment by 6% over the reference situation in 2001. When accounting for indirect and induced impacts, GDP increases by 18%, imports by 20% and employment by 26% compared to 2001. Agricultural intensification reduces but does not negate these positive impacts of bioenergy production. Accounting for agricultural intensification, the increase in GDP as a result of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land would amount to 16%, 20% in imports and 16% in employment compared to 2001. (author)

  15. TEST OF THE CHEN-ROLL-ROSS MACROECONOMIC FACTOR MODEL: EVIDENCE FROM CROATIAN STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Dolinar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the well-known Chen-Roll-Ross model on the Croatian stock market. Modifications of definitions of the Chen-Roll-Ross model variables showed as necessary because of doubtful availability and quality of input data needed. Namely, some macroeconomic and market variables are not available in the originally defined form or do not exist. In that sense this paper gives some alternative definitions for some model variables. Also, in order to improve statistical analysis, in this paper we have modified Fama-MacBeth technique in the way that second-pass regression was substituted with panel regression analysis. Based on the two-pass regression analysis of returns of 34 Croatian stocks on 4 macroeconomic variables during the seven-and-half-year observation period the following conclusion is made. In contrast to the results of Chen, Roll and Ross (1986 for the U.S. stock market, their model is not successful when describing a risk-return relation of Croatian stocks. Nevertheless, one observed version of the Chen-RollRoss model showed certain statistical significance. Namely, two risk factors in that version of the model were statistically significant: default premium, measured as risk premium for the corporate short-term bank loan financing, and term structure premium, measured on short-run basis.

  16. Single European currency and Monetary Union. Macroeconomic implications for pharmaceutical spending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanavos, P

    1998-01-01

    This article examines the potential implications of introducing a single currency among the Member States of the European Union for national pharmaceutical prices and spending. In doing so, it provides a brief account of the direct effects of introducing a single currency on pharmaceutical business. These are static in nature and include the elimination of exchange rate volatility and transaction costs, increased price transparency and limited potential for parallel trade. It subsequently analyses the potential medium and long term macroeconomic policy choices facing the Member States and their impact on pharmaceutical spending following the introduction of a single currency. These include policy directions in order to meet the Maastricht convergence criteria in the run-up to forming an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the implications of EMU on national macroeconomic policy thereafter. This article argues that the necessity for tight fiscal policies across the EU and, in particular, in those Member States facing high budget deficits and overall debt levels, will continue to exert considerable downward pressure on pharmaceutical spending.

  17. Navigating catastrophes: Local but not global optimisation allows for macro-economic navigation of crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harré, Michael S.

    2013-02-01

    Two aspects of modern economic theory have dominated the recent discussion on the state of the global economy: Crashes in financial markets and whether or not traditional notions of economic equilibrium have any validity. We have all seen the consequences of market crashes: plummeting share prices, businesses collapsing and considerable uncertainty throughout the global economy. This seems contrary to what might be expected of a system in equilibrium where growth dominates the relatively minor fluctuations in prices. Recent work from within economics as well as by physicists, psychologists and computational scientists has significantly improved our understanding of the more complex aspects of these systems. With this interdisciplinary approach in mind, a behavioural economics model of local optimisation is introduced and three general properties are proven. The first is that under very specific conditions local optimisation leads to a conventional macro-economic notion of a global equilibrium. The second is that if both global optimisation and economic growth are required then under very mild assumptions market catastrophes are an unavoidable consequence. Third, if only local optimisation and economic growth are required then there is sufficient parametric freedom for macro-economic policy makers to steer an economy around catastrophes without overtly disrupting local optimisation.

  18. Macro-economic performance, political trust, and the Great Recession: A multilevel analysis of the effects of within-country fluctuations in macroeconomic performance on political trust in 15 EU countries, 1999-2011

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erkel, P.F.A.; van der Meer, T.W.G.

    Recent cross-national comparative studies have found no effect of countries’ macroeconomic performances on trust in national political institutions, once political explanations (most notably corruption) are taken into account. Although political trust is not determined by the comparison of national

  19. Aspects on increase and decrease within a national economy as eigenvalue problem of linear homogeneous equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, E.

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents an approach which treats topics of macroeconomics by methods familiar in physics and technology, especially in nuclear reactor technology and in quantum mechanics. Such methods are applied to simplified models for the money flows within a national economy, their variation in time and thereby for the annual national growth rate. As usual, money flows stand for economic activities. The money flows between the economic groups are described by a set of difference equations or by a set of approximative differential equations or eventually by a set of linear algebraic equations. Thus this paper especially deals with the time behaviour of model economies which are under the influence of imbalances and of delay processes, thereby dealing also with economic growth and recession rates. These differential equations are solved by a completely numerical Runge-Kutta algorithm. Case studies are presented for cases with 12 groups only and are to show the capability of the methods which have been worked out. (orig.)

  20. Aspects on increase and decrease within a national economy as eigenvalue problem of linear homogeneous equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, E.

    2007-12-15

    The paper presents an approach which treats topics of macroeconomics by methods familiar in physics and technology, especially in nuclear reactor technology and in quantum mechanics. Such methods are applied to simplified models for the money flows within a national economy, their variation in time and thereby for the annual national growth rate. As usual, money flows stand for economic activities. The money flows between the economic groups are described by a set of difference equations or by a set of approximative differential equations or eventually by a set of linear algebraic equations. Thus this paper especially deals with the time behaviour of model economies which are under the influence of imbalances and of delay processes, thereby dealing also with economic growth and recession rates. These differential equations are solved by a completely numerical Runge-Kutta algorithm. Case studies are presented for cases with 12 groups only and are to show the capability of the methods which have been worked out. (orig.)