Institutional Design, Macroeconomic Policy Coordination and Implications for the Financial Sector in the UK

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Nasir Muhammad Ali

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This study has analysed the implications of institutional design of macroeconomic policy making institutions for the macroeconomic policy interaction and financial sector in the United Kingdom. Employing a Vector Error Correction (VEC model and using monthly data from January 1985 to August 2008 we found that the changes in institutional arrangement and design of policy making authorities appeared to be a major contributing factor in dynamics of association between policy coordination/combination and financial sector. It was also found that the independence of the Bank of England (BoE and withdrawal from the Exchange Rate Mechanism led to the increase in macroeconomic policy maker’s ability to coordinate and restore financial stability. The results imply that although institutional autonomy in the form of instrument independence (monetary policy decisions could bring financial stability, there is a strong necessity for coordination, even in Post-MPC (Monetary Policy Committee and the BoE independence.

Exploring Fiscal Policy at Zero Interest Rates in Intermediate Macroeconomics

Science.gov (United States)

Ramamurthy, Srikanth; Sedgley, Norman

2013-01-01

Since the financial meltdown of 2007, advanced macroeconomic theory has delved more deeply into the question of the appropriate fiscal policy when the nominal interest rate is close to or at zero percent. Such analysis is typically conducted with the aid of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The policy implications are,…

Macroeconomics in develpoing countries

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Deepak Nayyar

2007-09-01

Full Text Available This essay analyzes the differences between the economies of industrialized countriesand developing countries, which have important implications for macroeconomics interms of theory and policy. It considers the differences in macroeconomic objectives andexamines why the reach of macroeconomic policies is different in the two sets ofcountries. It argues that the distinction between short-run macroeconomic models andlong-term growth models is not quite appropriate for developing countries, wheremacroeconomic constraints on growth straddle time horizons and short-term policieshave long-term consequences. The essential hypothesis is that the nature of relationshipsand the direction of causation in macroeconomics, which shape analysis, diagnosis andprescription, depend on the institutional setting and not the analytical structure of models.And even if some laws of economics are universal, the functioning of economies can bemarkedly different. Therefore, economic theory and policy analysis should recognize,rather than ignore, such myriad differences.

Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review

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Muhammad Ali Nasir

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The association between economic and financial stabilities and influence of macroeconomic policies on the financial sector creates scope of active policy role in financial stability. As a contribution to the existing body of knowledge, this study has analysed the implications of macroeconomic policy interaction/coordination for financial stability, proxied by financial assets, i.e. equity and bonds price oscillation. The critical review and analysis of the existing literature on the subject suggests that there is also ample evidence of interdependence between monetary and fiscal policies and this interrelation necessitates coordination between them for the sake of financial stability. There is also a case for analysing the symmetry of financial markets responses to macroeconomic policy interaction. On methodological and empirical grounds, it is vital to test the robustness of policy recommendations to overcome the limitation of a single empirical approach (Jeffrey–Lindley’s paradox. Hence, the Frequentist and Bayesian approaches should be used in commentary manner. The policy interaction and optimal policy combination should also be analysed in the context of institutional design and major financial events to gain insight into the implications of policy interaction in the periods of stable economic and financial environments as well as period of financial and economic distress.

Energy policies in a macroeconomic model: an analysis of energy taxes when oil prices decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capros, P.; Karadeloglou, P.; Mentzas, G.

1992-01-01

This paper attempts an analysis of energy and macroeconomic policy issues in oil-importing countries within the context of decreasing oil prices and macroeconomic modelling. A medium-term perspective is retained and the assumption is made that the economy experiences unemployment and excess capacity when the price declines. The analysis excludes any response elements that refer to long-term equilibria, optimum allocation of resources or welfare characterization of results which should be dealt with within the context of price adjusted equilibrium models. This paper adopts the approach of quantity adjusted neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models. The paper also inquires into the macroeconomic models currently used by the Commission of the European Communities. The analysis is carried out using the HGRV model which is a large-scale neo-Keynesian multisectoral macroeconomic model of the Greek economy. (UK)

Studying Absenteeism in Principles of Macroeconomics: Do Attendance Policies Make a Difference?

Science.gov (United States)

Self, Sharmistha

2012-01-01

The primary objective of this article is to see if and how attendance policy influences class attendance in undergraduate-level principles of macroeconomics classes. The second objective, which is related to the first, is to examine whether the nature of the attendance policy matters in terms of its impact on class attendance behavior. The results…

IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

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Clementina IVAN-UNGUREANU

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Globalization – the growing integration of economies and societies around the world – has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty reduction in some countries that were poor 20 years ago have been positive aspects of globalization. But globalization has also generated significant international opposition to concerns about increased inequality and environmental degradation. There are many definitions of globalization. One of them could be: globalization is an ecosystem in which economic potential is no longer defined or contained by political and geographic boundaries. Economic activity has no bounds in a globalized economy. A globalized world is one where goods, services, financial capital, machinery, money, workers and ideas migrate to wherever they are most valued and can work together most efficiently, flexibly and securely. Where does economic policy come into play in this world? This paper presents some aspects of globalization and the impact on the new strategy of macroeconomics policy.

The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Implications for Teaching Intermediate Macroeconomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Froyen, Richard T.

1996-01-01

Traces the development of macroeconomic theory from John Maynard Keynes to modern endogenous growth theory. Maintains that a combination of interest in growth theory and related policy questions will play a prominent role in macroeconomics in the future. Recommends narrowing the gap between graduate school and undergraduate economics instruction.…

Estimating bounds on the macroeconomic effects of the Clean Energy Future policy scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanstad, A. H.; DeCanio, S. J.; Boyd, G. A.

2000-04-04

The Clean Energy Future (CEF) is a partial equilibrium study in that it focuses specifically on markets for energy services. It is also important, however, to consider potential effects of the CEF policies on overall economic performance. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to provide a framework for interpreting the macroeconomic (or second-order) effects that might occur under the types of scenarios analyzed in the CEF, and (2) to obtain a range of estimates of these effects associated with the Moderate and Advanced scenarios as described in the CEF study. In this paper the authors consider results from both types of model in the context of the CEF study. The primary framework and calculations focus on the second meaning given above of the term macroeconomic and the associated CGE models, because these are appropriate for analysis on the time scales of the CEF, through 2010 or 2020. Because the Keynesian-style macroeconomic models are designed and suited for short-term forecasting, they also discuss the application of one such model to the analysis of the shorter-horizon effects of certain policies to reduce carbon emissions.

Assessing Determinants of Macroeconomic Policy on Real Convergence and Growth: A Comparative Study of the Eurozone and ASEAN

OpenAIRE

ZaenalMutaqin; Masaru Ichihashi

2012-01-01

This study mainly examines the role of macroeconomic policy variables associated with Maastricht Convergence Criteria (MC), using various approaches to analyze comparatively differences in growth and convergence in income, productivity, and unemployment between a developed, economically integrated area (Eurozone) and a developing one (ASEAN), a decade before and after the euro was introduced. The most interesting issue is whether macroeconomic policy coordination in the Eurozone has had an in...

THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON COMPETITION POLICY EFFECTIVENESS WITHIN EUROPEAN UNION

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Dragoi Ionut

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In the last decades, more and more countries have enacted competition laws, understanding the importance of this process in providing a normal functioning of the economy. Analyzing competition policy effectiveness is important not only because of the recent extent of the phenomenon, but also because of the impact of competition policy effectiveness on economic development and, in the current economic climate, on the economic recovery process. For this reason, quantitative evaluation for competition policy effectiveness became very useful as data handling and understanding the whole phenomenon are easier this way and an international perspective is provided. This was made possible by various international institutions that have created a system of aggregated indicators for the evaluation of competition law enforcement and competition advocacy (perceived effectiveness. The purpose of our research is to identify the macroeconomic factors that influence the effectiveness of competition law implementation within the European Union Member States. We have tasted the influence of 13 macroeconomic, using panel data methodology and data from the last four years. We obtained ß coefficients statistically significant only for 11 of them. The results are consistent with prior analyzed studies and economic logic: positive influence from market division, intensity of local competition, ethical behavior of firms, strength of auditing and reporting standards, efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes, protection of minority shareholders’ interests, public trust of politicians, economic dimension and market size and negative influence from corruption level and diversion of public funds. Based on the achieved results we can perform an analysis of principal components leading to causal space reduction with minimal information loss and without informational redundancy, creating the premises for building a model that explains competition policy

Macroeconomic policies for development in Latin America

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Ricardo Ffrench-Davis

2009-05-01

Full Text Available This article analyses the link between the macroeconomic environment and development (economic growth with equity. The aim of the analysis is to compare two alternative approaches to interpreting and implementing macroeconomics. The first to come under analysis is the financialist or neoliberal approach, which places the emphasis on macroeconomic balance, giving particular weight to the two cornerstones of low inflation and control of the fiscal budget, together with general openness of the capital account. The second approach –which we will call the “alternative”– is the productivist approach, which places the emphasis on a comprehensive group of macroeconomic balances: or rather, in addition to low inflation and fiscal responsibility, it involves a real balanced economy; that is to say, an aggregate demand that is consistent with the economy’s productive capacity and with a sustainable external balance. This second approach involves, firstly, a high coefficient of the use of productive factors (capital and work while, secondly, it attempts to prevent vulnerability in front of costly crises of external origin. Finally, the author argues that the broadest macroeconomic objectives demand more and better political instruments in the context of the globalisation of financial volatility.

The Macroeconomics of Aid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Addison, Tony; Morrissey, Oliver; Tarp, Finn

2017-01-01

This Special Issue explores macroeconomic effects of aid from various perspectives through a blend of studies, both conceptual and empirical in nature. The overall aim is to enhance the understanding of the macroeconomic dimensions of aid in the policy and research communities, and to inspire...

Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.M. Murshed (Syed)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when debt

Short and long run macroeconomic effects of trade policy in the presence of debt servicing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.M. Murshed (Syed)

2010-01-01

textabstractABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic effects of trade policy, when the instrument is a voluntary export restraint (VER), on both the home (imposing) country and the foreign (targeted) country. The innovation in the paper is the analysis of trade policy when

FEATURES OF INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC MEASURES OF TRANSFORMATION ON THE STATE DEBT POLICY

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Roman Rudyk

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The objective is to study the relationship between the debt policy and vector of macroeconomic measures which is reflected in the transformation of structure of budget deficiency payments. Also, the article defines and characterizes three main phases of the government debt policy: pre-stabilization, stabilization and post-stabilization. The author analyzes main aspects of the relationship between dept policy and monetary one. Methodology. The study is based on the works of domestic and foreign scientists engaged in research of the given problem. Theoretical concepts are supported by statistical data of key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine’s economy. Results of the survey showed that the relationship between the debt policy and measures of macro-regulation during the transformation has the stable and permanent nature, and the use of certain instruments of government debt management is exclusively possible for a definite direction of macro policy on the one hand, and they are the elements in the system of measures for its implementation on the other hand. In the pre-stabilization phase of transformation the debt policy synthesizes the expansive solutions of monetary and fiscal authorities, and a direct link between them mediate the expansion of demand in the public sector and the preservation of soft budget constraints for micro-units; in the stabilization phase the relationship between fiscal, monetary and debt policy becomes more indirect, but are direct in that part of the borrowing purposes, subordinated to the creation of macro-stabilization mechanism of transformation; in the poststabilization period the role of indirect interconnection between the debt measures and fiscal and monetary decisions increases, but the lack of a deep micro-restructuring and deep systemic and structural reforms cause the deterioration in the macro-economic state of the system, due to which the vector of government borrowing again gravitates toward the field

Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Rashid Amjad; A.R. Kemal

1997-01-01

The paper provides a consistent time-series of poverty estimates for the period 1963- 64 to 1992-93 for both the rural as well as the urban areas, examines the influence of macroeconomic policies on the poverty levels, analyses the impact of Structural Adjustment Programmes on the levels of poverty, and suggests a strategy for poverty alleviation in Pakistan. The paper explores in particular the influence on poverty of such factors as economic growth, agricultural growth, terms of trade for t...

Foreign Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: A SVAR Study of Malaysia

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Zulkefly Abdul Karim

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of foreign shocks upon domestic macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary policy, and examines the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy as a stabilization policy in Malaysia. Monetary policy variables (interest rate and money supply have been measured through a non-recursive structural VAR (SVAR identification scheme, which allows the monetary authority to set the interest rate and money supply after observing the current value of foreign variables, domestic output and inflation. The results show the important role of foreign shocks in influencing Malaysian monetary policy and macroeconomic variables. There is a real effect of monetary policy, that is, a positive shock in money supply increases domestic output. In contrast, a positive interest rates shock has a negative effect on domestic output growth and inflation. The effects of money supply and interest rate shocks on the exchange rate and stock prices are also consistent with standard economic theory. In addition, domestic monetary policy is able to mitigate the negative effect of external shocks upon domestic economy.

Macro-economic environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, M.

1993-01-01

In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

MACROECONOMIC POLICY OF CURRENCY WAR: METHODS OF INVESTIGATION

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Bekareva S. V.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the methods of investigation of a modern international monetary and finance field for some countries which would participate in currency war. Usually currency wars are used in order to achieve some competitive advantages in international trade relations. Real effective exchange rate index was used as the key instrument in our analysis. It reflects a nominal exchange rate and the main trade partners’ structure as well. Moreover, some macroeconomic and finance indices were used. The methods of investigation are cluster and panel data analyses. The period of investigation is 1990-2012. The result of analysis is connected with showing differences in countries’ possibility of implementing monetary policy instruments to improve their competitiveness.

Experimental labor markets and policy considerations: Incomplete contracts and macroeconomic aspects

OpenAIRE

Casoria Fortuna; Riedl Arno

2012-01-01

This survey focuses on experimental labor markets investigating two aspects that deem us important for a better understanding of labor market relations and the consequences for labor market policies. The first part of the survey is dedicated to papers that assess the prevalence of reciprocal considerations in incomplete labor contracts. The second part summarizes the relatively small but growing experimental literature exploring labor issues in a macroeconomics and public finance setting and ...

A goal programming approach for a joint design of macroeconomic and environmental policies: a methodological proposal and an application to the Spanish economy.

Science.gov (United States)

André, Francisco J; Cardenete, M Alejandro; Romero, Carlos

2009-05-01

The economic policy needs to pay increasingly more attention to the environmental issues, which requires the development of methodologies able to incorporate environmental, as well as macroeconomic, goals in the design of public policies. Starting from this observation, this article proposes a methodology based upon a Simonian satisficing logic made operational with the help of goal programming (GP) models, to address the joint design of macroeconomic and environmental policies. The methodology is applied to the Spanish economy, where a joint policy is elicited, taking into consideration macroeconomic goals (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, public deficit) and environmental goals (CO(2), NO( x ) and SO( x ) emissions) within the context of a computable general equilibrium model. The results show how the government can "fine-tune" its policy according to different criteria using GP models. The resulting policies aggregate the environmental and the economic goals in different ways: maximum aggregate performance, maximum balance and a lexicographic hierarchy of the goals.

The macro-economic rebound effect and the UK economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, Terry; Ekins, Paul; Foxon, Tim

2007-01-01

This paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the UK economy arising from energy efficiency policies 2000-2010 using the macroeconomic model, MDM-E3. The literature distinguishes between three types of rebound effect: direct, indirect and economy-wide. The macroeconomic rebound effect considered here is the combination of the indirect and economy-wide effects. Policies for the domestic, business, commercial and public, and transport sectors of the economy are analysed for 2000-2010. Overall, the policies lead to a saving of about 8% of the energy, which would otherwise have been used and a reduction in CO 2 emissions of 10% (or 14 mtC) by 2010. There are also favourable macroeconomic effects: lower inflation and higher growth. We find that the macroeconomic rebound effect arising from UK energy efficiency policies for the period 2000-2010 is around 11% by 2010, averaged across sectors of the economy. When this is added to the (assumed) direct rebound effect of around 15%, this gives a total rebound effect of around 26% arising from these policies. Thus, the findings of the study support the argument that energy efficiency improvements for both consumers and producers, stimulated by policy incentives, will lead to significant reductions in energy demand and hence in greenhouse gas emissions

Macroeconomic stability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jespersen, Jesper

2004-01-01

It is demonstrated that full employment and sustainable development not necessarily are conflicting goals. On the other hand macroeconomic stability cannot be obtained without a deliberate labour sharing policy and a shift in the composition of private consumption away from traditional material...

Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries

OpenAIRE

Loayza, Norman V.; Rancière, Romain; Servén, Luis; Ventura, Jaume

2007-01-01

Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction Norman V. Loayza, Romain Ranciere, Luis Serven, ` and Jaume Ventura Macroeconomic volatility, both a source and a reflection of underdevelopment, is a fundamental concern for developing countries. This article provides a brief overview of the recent literature on macroeconomic volatility in developing countries, highlighting its causes, consequences, and possible remedies. to reduce domestic policy-induced macroecon...

Resource price turbulence and macroeconomic adjustment for a resource exporter. A conceptual framework for policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, Grant M.; Harvie, Charles

2010-01-01

Increased global demand for energy and other resources, particularly from the rapidly developing economies of China and India and the opening up of global resource markets to global investors and speculative activity, has resulted in considerable recent turbulence in resource prices. The recent magnitude of change in resource prices, both positive and negative, and their macroeconomic implications is of considerable contemporary importance to both resource importing and exporting economies. For a resource exporting economy, such as that of Australia, the recent resource price boom has resulted in: increased government taxation revenue, increased employment and wages in the resource and resource related sectors, increased spending in the domestic economy that contributed to buoyant economic growth, increased resource exports to the booming economies of China and India and contributed to a stronger domestic currency with beneficial effects upon inflation. On the other hand these developments have had adverse effects on the non-resource sector by: subjecting it to more intense competition for limited resources, contributing to a loss of international competitiveness and reduced exports arising from a stronger exchange rate, reducing employment in the relatively more labour intensive non-resource sector, and contributing to an eventual slow down in the overall economy. These positive and negative effects, and the overall impact of a resource price boom, require a fundamentally closer analysis of the structure of the economy under scrutiny. In this context the policy response by government is likely to be pivotal in determining the overall macroeconomic outcomes from a resource price boom. The aim of this paper is to develop a generic analytical framework to appraise economic outcomes in the wake of a resource price boom for a resource producing and exporting economy. To this end a dynamic long run macroeconomic model is developed, emphasising the important role and

Ecological macroeconomics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røpke, Inge

2013-01-01

by a more theoretical debate and increased interaction between the heterodox schools of ecological economics and post-Keynesian economics. In addition, both the degrowth community and the research community organized around sustainable transitions of socio-technical systems have contributed to discussions...... on how to reconcile environmental and social concerns. Based on this broad variety of pieces in a jigsaw puzzle, a new ecological macroeconomics is emerging, but the contours are still vague. This chapter seeks to outline some of this topography and to add a few pieces of its own by highlighting the need...... to shift resources from consumption to investment and describing the role of consumer-citizens in such a change. The chapter starts by identifying the problems and challenges for an ecological macroeconomics. The next section outlines some of the shortcomings of traditional macroeconomics...

The impact of the International Monetary Fund's macroeconomic policies on the AIDS pandemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Brook K

2010-01-01

Expansion of funding for HIV/AIDS, especially treatment, is under attack over concerns about cost effectiveness and financial constraints. The International Monetary Fund is deeply implicated in the history of the AIDS pandemic, the underlying weakness of health systems, and the ideology of constrained resources that underlies most attacks on AIDS funding. The IMF imposed structural violence on developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s through neoliberal and macroeconomic reforms that intensified individual and communal vulnerability to infection and dismantled already weak health systems. This same macroeconomic fundamentalism has recently been repackaged and renamed. IMF fundamentalist policies continue to prioritize low inflation, constricted government spending, robust foreign currency reserves, and prompt repayment of debt at the expense of investments in health and more expansionary, pro-growth and job-creation policies. Several recent surveys have concluded that the IMF reluctantly relaxed overly restrictive policy prescriptions in response to the global economic crisis, but this relaxation was temporary at best and only extended to countries previously acceding to IMF orthodoxy. AIDS activists are campaigning for billions of dollars to fulfill the promise of universal access. If IMF pressures persist, developing countries will continue to undermine the additionality of donor health financing by substituting donor for domestic financing, refusing to invest in recurrent costs for medicines and health workers, and neglecting needed investments in health infrastructure and health system strengthening.

The Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impacts of Reforming Energy Subsidy Policy in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Nora Yusma Bte Mohamed Yusoff; Hussain Ali Bekhet

2017-01-01

The rationalization of a gradual subsidies reforms plan has been set out by the Malaysian government to achieve the high-income nation target. This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reform policy on fiscal deficit and macroeconomics variables in Malaysia. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model is employed. Three simulations based on different groups of scenarios have been developed. Importantly, the overall results indicate that removal of fuel subsidy has signif...

Identification of Macroeconomic Factors in Large Panels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse; Dewachter, Hans; Houssa, Romain

standard practices in the SVAR literature. Estimators based on the EM algorithm are developped. We apply this framework to a large panel of US monthly macroeconomic series. In particular, we identify nine macroeconomic factors and discuss the economic impact of monetary policy stocks. The results...

Financial stability, wealth effects and optimal macroeconomic policy combination in the United Kingdom: A new-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Ali Nasir

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study derives an optimal macroeconomic policy combination for financial sector stability in the United Kingdom by employing a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE framework. The empirical results obtained show that disciplined fiscal and accommodative monetary policies stance is optimal for financial sector stability. Furthermore, fiscal indiscipline countered by contractionary monetary stance adversely affects financial sector stability. Financial markets, e.g. stocks and Gilts show a short-term asymmetric response to macroeconomic policy interaction and to each other. The asymmetry is a reflection of portfolio adjustment. However in the long-run, the responses to suggested optimal policy combination had homogenous effects and there was evidence of co-movement in the stock and Gilt markets.

Macroeconomic trouble and policy challenges in the wake of the financial bust

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Angel Asensio

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, at least in the countries that had been involved in the financial turmoil. Indeed, the collapse of the "state of confidence" and the negative effects of private debts on consumption and investment decisions have fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.

Macroeconomic models and energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Douillard, Pierre; Le Hir, Boris; Epaulard, Anne

2016-02-01

As a new policy for energy transition has just been adopted, several questions emerge about the best way to reduce CO 2 emissions, about policies which enable this reduction, and about their costs and opportunities. This note discusses the contribution macro-economic models may have in this respect, notably in the definition of policies which trigger behaviour changes, and those which support energy transition. The authors first discuss the stakes of the assessment of energy transition, and then describe macro-economic models which can be used for such an assessment, give and comment some results of simulations performed for France by using four of these models (Mesange, Numesis, ThreeME, and Imaclim-R France). The authors finally draw lessons about the way to use these models and to interpret their results within the frame of energy transition

Some Thoughts on Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Boskin, Michael J.

1986-01-01

This article shares the author's personal views about current macroeconomic policy and what ought to be taught at senior high school or freshman college levels. Concludes that Keynesian economics is not dead, but that modern eclectic macroeconomics must focus on basic data about the economy and what is at stake in making decisions based on…

IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES ON POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN PAKISTAN

OpenAIRE

Israr Fahad; Ali Rehmat

2013-01-01

This paper provides strategy to explain the macroeconomic determinants for eradicating poverty in Pakistan. An empirical analysis of macroeconomic indicators are based on the data for the year 1994 to 2005. Ordinary least square estimation was used to estimate the parameters of multiple variable regression model. Gini coefficient is used to measure the inequality in income distribution. The results suggest that per capita income, and remittances, are highly significant, developmental expendit...

Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

K. Bel (Koen); R. Paap (Richard)

2013-01-01

textabstractForecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition

The energy policy relevance of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report on the macro-economics of mitigating climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen, Richard A.; Guenther, Edeltraud

2016-01-01

Research which attempted to determine the macroeconomic importance of mitigating climate change through 2100 was presented primarily in Chapter 6 of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report. Some of the findings of this chapter were then summarized in the Summary for Policy Makers (SPMs) of both the Synthesis Report, and the WGIII report. Unfortunately, these SPMs omitted key aspects of what the overall macroeconomic results for the costs and benefits of mitigating climate change actually did and did not include, how they were produced, and a careful assessment of their uncertainty and scientific validity. Yet, many of the major omissions were acknowledged deep in the text of Chapter 6, but were not revealed to the public. We conclude, therefore, that neither of these SPMs was useful for energy policy makers and energy managers, and they were misleading due to their many key omissions. Finally, we recommend several improvements that can be made to integrated assessment modeling methodologies so that the macroeconomic analysis of mitigating climate change resulting from the use of such models can be more relevant and useful to energy policy makers in the future, and can be communicated to them better. - Highlights: •The 2014 IPCC Working Group III Report has major omissions in its economic analysis. •Many well-known benefits of mitigation are not included in its economic results. •The Summary for Policy Makers is not very useful for energy policy decision makers. •The upcoming Sixth IPCC WGIII analysis should be structured quite differently.

The macroeconomics of banking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Kwaak, C.G.F.

2017-01-01

This thesis studies the macroeconomic effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in an environment where commercial banks are undercapitalized after a financial crisis and have large holdings of (risky) government bonds on their balance sheets. An undercapitalized banking system cannot perfectly

Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chirwa Themba G.

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The paper conducts a qualitative narrative appraisal of the existing empirical literature on the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in developing and developed countries. Much as other empirical studies have investigated the determinants of economic growth using various econometric methods, the majority of these studies have not distinguished what drives or hinders economic growth in developing or developed countries. The study finds that the determinants of economic growth are different when this distinction is used. It reveals that in developing countries the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth include foreign aid, foreign direct investment, fiscal policy, investment, trade, human capital development, demographics, monetary policy, natural resources, reforms and geographic, regional, political and financial factors. In developed countries, the study reveals that the key macroeconomic determinants that are associated with economic growth include physical capital, fiscal policy, human capital, trade, demographics, monetary policy and financial and technological factors.

Macroeconomic implications of population ageing and selected policy responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, David E; Chatterji, Somnath; Kowal, Paul; Lloyd-Sherlock, Peter; McKee, Martin; Rechel, Bernd; Rosenberg, Larry; Smith, James P

2015-02-14

Between now and 2030, every country will experience population ageing-a trend that is both pronounced and historically unprecedented. Over the past six decades, countries of the world had experienced only a slight increase in the share of people aged 60 years and older, from 8% to 10%. But in the next four decades, this group is expected to rise to 22% of the total population-a jump from 800 million to 2 billion people. Evidence suggests that cohorts entering older age now are healthier than previous ones. However, progress has been very uneven, as indicated by the wide gaps in population health (measured by life expectancy) between the worst (Sierra Leone) and best (Japan) performing countries, now standing at a difference of 36 years for life expectancy at birth and 15 years for life expectancy at age 60 years. Population ageing poses challenges for countries' economies, and the health of older populations is of concern. Older people have greater health and long-term care needs than younger people, leading to increased expenditure. They are also less likely to work if they are unhealthy, and could impose an economic burden on families and society. Like everyone else, older people need both physical and economic security, but the burden of providing these securities will be falling on a smaller portion of the population. Pension systems will be stressed and will need reassessment along with retirement policies. Health systems, which have not in the past been oriented toward the myriad health problems and long-term care needs of older people and have not sufficiently emphasised disease prevention, can respond in different ways to the new demographic reality and the associated changes in population health. Along with behavioural adaptations by individuals and businesses, the nature of such policy responses will establish whether population ageing will lead to major macroeconomic difficulties. Copyright © 2015 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd

Macroeconomic Adjustment in Armenia: The Role of External Factors

OpenAIRE

Van Aarle, Bas

2011-01-01

This paper develops a small macroeconomic model of the Armenian economy. After setting up the model and its estimation, a number of macroeconomic scenarios is analyzed in the form of out-of-sample simulations. We analyze the transmissions in the model of a number of macroeconomic shocks and policy scenarios to obtain a better understanding of their possible effects on the internal and external balance of the Armenian economy. A special focus is put on the role of exchange rate and monetary ma...

BEYOND CONNECTIVITY. FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR E-INCLUSION POLICIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radu Gheorghiu

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The information society stays at the core of the Lisbon Strategy, despite the dot-com crisis and the still hidden macroeconomic impact of information and communication technology (ICT. Thus, i2010 has been the first concrete initiative of the revised Lisbon Strategy in 2005, while ICT represents by far the field with the largest budget in the 7th Framework Programme (FP7. On the industry side, the stakes are still high in the global competition, where Europe hopes for a place at least for communication technologies and services. However, the extreme dynamics of technology with its sometimes breathtaking promises, poses new challenges for e-inclusion. Firstly, the accelerating pace of innovation maintains a generation type of digital divide between countries with different level of development. Secondly, the changing nature of the network (e.g. web 2.0 with virtual communities; web 3.0 with location based interaction; semantic web; ambient intelligence and “the internet of things” blurs the very distinction between inside and outside the information space. The paper explores these challenges and the associated policy options.

Macroeconomic Adjustment in Armenia: The Role of External Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bas van AARLE

2010-05-01

Full Text Available This paper develops a small macroeconomic model of the Armenian economy. After setting up the model and its estimation, a number of macroeconomic scenarios is analyzed in the form of out-of-sample simulations. We analyze the transmissions in the model of a number of macroeconomic shocks and policy scenarios to obtain a better understanding of their possible effects on the internal and external balance of the Armenian economy. A special focus is put on the role of exchange rate and monetary management and the inflow of remittances in the Armenian economy

Capire la realtà macroeconomica: una sfida* ( The challenge of macroeconomic understanding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. MALINVAUD

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Il documento è un contributo ad una serie di ricordi e riflessioni sulle esperienze professionali di illustri economisti con Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review iniziati nel 1979. In esso Edmond Malinvaud descrive le varie sfide che percepito nel cercare di capire macroeconomiaThe paper is a contribution to a series of recollections and reflections on the professional experiences of distinguished economists which the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review started in 1979. In it Edmond Malinvaud describes the various challenges he perceived in trying to understand macroeconomics.JEL: B31, E00

The macroeconomics of demographic unemployment.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlberg, M

1990-02-01

"What are the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in labour supply? In the short run, unemployment occurs, due to both lack of aggregate demand and capital shortage. Demand-side policy and money wage restraint prove to be ineffective in this situation, owing to capital shortage. On the other hand, a reduction in working hours without wage compensation as well as a policy mix of both demand-side policy and investment policy turn out to be effective. The reduction in working hours lowers individual income and raises individual leisure, as compared to the policy mix." (SUMMARY IN GER) excerpt

Macroeconomic Stabilization When the Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling

Science.gov (United States)

Buttet, Sebastien; Roy, Udayan

2015-01-01

The authors modify the Dynamic Aggregate Demand-Dynamic Aggregate Supply model in Mankiw's widely used intermediate macroeconomics textbook to discuss monetary policy when the natural real interest rate is falling over time. Their results highlight a new role for the central bank's inflation target as a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. They…

DUAL MONETARY SYSTEM AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA

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Sri Herianingrum

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This research aims to evaluate the impact of dual monetary policy shock on macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia: growth and inflation. In addition, this study will also examine whether conventional monetary policy has a particular impact upon Islamic banking sector. This research apply VAR (vector auto regressive method on monthly data from Bank Of Indonesia during the period of January 2010 to December 2013. The result of IRF explain that the interest rate channel find the hard way to accomplished the macroeconomic goals while the Islamic monetary instrument indicates the potential growth of output and hold the inflation low. The result of VDC describes that the Islamic instrument still affected by conventional monetary policy because of slow development in Islamic monetary systemDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.1990

Influence of macro-economic growth, CAP reforms and biofuel policy on the Polish agri-food sector in 2007–2020

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tabeau, A.A.

2009-01-01

This paper presents the possible development scenario of the Polish agricultural sector till 2020. It also assesses the impact of macroeconomic growth, CAP reforms and worldwide policies towards the agriculture on this development. The scenario is build using an extended version of the Global Trade

Deregulation and Macroeconomic Drivers Of Foreign Direct ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Deregulation and Macroeconomic Drivers Of Foreign Direct Investment In Nigerian Agriculture (1970 -2009): An Econometric Analysis. ... The study showed that foreign exchange and the economic deregulation policy of Nigerian government ...

Modern Paradigm in Macroeconomic Monetary Theories

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Daniel Lipară

2016-01-01

We appreciated that in order to achieve macroeconomic stability a mix between monetary andfiscal policies is needed, fixed rules should be applied in interdependence with discretionarygovernment measures and acting upon incomes is the best way to fight against inflation.

Adaptations of renewable energy policies to unstable macroeconomic situations - case study: wind power in Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kissel, J.M. [Technical University, Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Renewable Energies; Federal University, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); World Council for Renewable Energy, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Krauter, S.C.W. [Technical University, Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Renewable Energies; World Council for Renewable Energy, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); State University of Ceara (Brazil). Dept. of Physics

2006-12-15

Despite the massive cost reduction in the last decade, wind power generation is generally still more expensive than conventional energy sources which benefit from the exclusion of externality costs in the price structure. Support policies for renewable energies guarantee the economic viability of this type of electrical power generation in many European countries. In Latin America, Brazil has become the pioneer state for renewable energy with the implementation of the PROINFA programme that supports, among other sources, wind power development of 1100 MW. This article presents an overview of the differences between the German and Brazilian wind power promotion policies with a special focus on how PROINFA can be adapted to the unstable macroeconomic situation of Brazil. The document specifically examines the adaptation of wind power promotion policies to large inflation and interest rates in Brazil. (author)

Adaptations of renewable energy policies to unstable macroeconomic situations-Case study: Wind power in Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kissel, Johannes M. [Department of Renewable Energies, Institute for Energy and Control Technology, Technical University Berlin (TUB), Sec. EM 4, Einsteinufer 11, D-10587 Berlin (Germany) and Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ-COPPE), Programme for Energy Planning, Rio de Janeiro-RJ (Brazil) and World Council for Renewable Energy-Latin America - WCRE LA, c/o Rio Solar Ltda./PML, Av. Rio Branco, 25/18o andar, 20093-900 Rio de Janeiro-RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: jo.kissel@gmx.net; Krauter, Stefan C.W. [Department of Renewable Energies, Institute for Energy and Control Technology, Technical University Berlin (TUB), Sec. EM 4, Einsteinufer 11, D-10587 Berlin (Germany) and World Council for Renewable Energy-Latin America (WCRE LA), c/o Rio Solar Ltda./PML, Av. Rio Branco, 25/18o andar, 20093-900 Rio de Janeiro-RJ (Brazil) and Department of Physics, State University of Ceara - UECE, Alternative Energy Group, Av. Paranjana 1700, Campus do Itaperi, Fortaleza 60740-000 CE (Brazil)]. E-mail: krauter@uece.br

2006-12-15

Despite the massive cost reduction in the last decade, wind power generation is generally still more expensive than conventional energy sources which benefit from the exclusion of externality costs in the price structure. Support policies for renewable energies guarantee the economic viability of this type of electrical power generation in many European countries. In Latin America, Brazil has become the pioneer state for renewable energy with the implementation of the PROINFA programme that supports, among other sources, wind power development of 1100 MW. This article presents an overview of the differences between the German and Brazilian wind power promotion policies with a special focus on how PROINFA can be adapted to the unstable macroeconomic situation of Brazil. The document specifically examines the adaptation of wind power promotion policies to large inflation and interest rates in Brazil.

Adaptations of renewable energy policies to unstable macroeconomic situations-Case study: Wind power in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kissel, Johannes M.; Krauter, Stefan C.W.

2006-01-01

Despite the massive cost reduction in the last decade, wind power generation is generally still more expensive than conventional energy sources which benefit from the exclusion of externality costs in the price structure. Support policies for renewable energies guarantee the economic viability of this type of electrical power generation in many European countries. In Latin America, Brazil has become the pioneer state for renewable energy with the implementation of the PROINFA programme that supports, among other sources, wind power development of 1100 MW. This article presents an overview of the differences between the German and Brazilian wind power promotion policies with a special focus on how PROINFA can be adapted to the unstable macroeconomic situation of Brazil. The document specifically examines the adaptation of wind power promotion policies to large inflation and interest rates in Brazil

Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?

Science.gov (United States)

Aikman, David; Barrett, Philip; Kapadia, Sujit; King, Mervyn; Proudman, James; Taylor, Tim; de Weymarn, Iain; Yates, Tony

2011-12-13

Uncertainty is pervasive in economic policy-making. Modern economies share similarities with other complex systems in their unpredictability. But economic systems also differ from those in the natural sciences because outcomes are affected by the state of beliefs of the systems' participants. The dynamics of beliefs and how they interact with economic outcomes can be rich and unpredictable. This paper relates these ideas to the recent crisis, which has reminded us that we need a financial system that is resilient in the face of the unpredictable and extreme. It also highlights how such uncertainty puts a premium on sound communication strategies by policy-makers. This creates challenges in informing others about the uncertainties in the economy, and how policy is set in the face of those uncertainties. We show how the Bank of England tries to deal with some of these challenges in its communications about monetary policy.

Comparison of Macroeconomic Performance of Selected Asian Countries. An Econometric Analysis of China Economic Growth and Policy Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hasret Benar Balcioglu

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This paper compares the key macroeconomics indicators for the selected countries: China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Rep. and India and also makes an econometric analysis for China for the period 1961-2007. These countries are chosen on the basis of comparability of data and time without measurement errors. This study also investigates six hypotheses considering the impact of several key macroeconomic variables such as domestic saving rate, domestic investment rate, and volatility of savings, volatility of inflation, growth rate of exports and growth rate of real GNP. By using suitable statistical and econometric tests, this paper finds that prevailing performance of China depends on its superior rates of domestic saving and exports. Policies are also suggested from the differentials between the economic performances of China and other chosen Asian countries.

BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY IMPACT ON RUSSIAN MACROECONOMICS INDICATORS

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Sheveleva O. A.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper the interaction between the production macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy and MIBOR (the main operational benchmark of the Bank of Russia, as well as the relationship between the inflation indicators and money supply were investigated with Bayesian approach. Conjugate Normal Inverse Wishart Prior was used. According to the study, tough monetary policy has a deterrent effect on the Russian economy. The growth of the money market rate causes a reduction in investments and output in the main sectors of the economy, as well as a drop in the income of the population with an increase in the unemployment rate.

Unclogging the Credit Channel: on the Macroeconomics of Banking Frictions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jakucionyte, E.; van Wijnbergen, S.

2018-01-01

We explore the consequences of different financial frictions on the corporate and banking level for macroeconomic policy responsiveness to major policy measures. We show that both corporate and bank debt overhang greatly reduce the effectiveness of fiscal policy: multipliers turn negative with debt

EU governance of economic and social policies : Chances and challenges for social Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bekker, S.; Klosse, S.

2013-01-01

This article aims at establishing to what extent the renewed EU economic and social policy coordination cycles offer opportunities to uphold and further develop the Union’s social objectives. First, it seeks to examine to what extent the legal frameworks in which macroeconomic and social policies

Dual Monetary System and Macroeconomic Performance in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sri Herianingrum

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This research aims to evaluate the impact of dual monetary policyshock on macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia: growth and inflation. Inaddition, this study will also examine whether conventional monetary policy hasa particular impact upon Islamic banking sector. This research apply VAR (vectorauto regressive method on monthly data from Bank Of Indonesia during theperiod of January 2010 to December 2013. The result of IRF explain that theinterest rate channel find the hard way to accomplished the macroeconomic goalswhile the Islamic monetary instrument indicates the potential growth of outputand hold the inflation low. The result of VDC describes that the Islamic instrumentstill affected by conventional monetary policy because of slow development inIslamic monetary systemDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.2509

From macroeconomics of energy-climate policies to the convergence between climate and development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine

2016-01-01

After a brief presentation of her research curriculum, an indication of her various publications and contributions to conferences, the author presents her expertise works and her participation to national and international projects such as: Fairness in the post-2030 climatic regime, Towards an energetic autonomy in island and isolated territories, scenarios under a carbon constraint, comparative analysis of tools of implementation of multilateral agreements on the environment, mechanism for a clean development and domestic measures, Deep De-carbonation Pathway Project or DDPP, EncilowCarb engaging civil society in low carbon scenarios, climate and development or how to re-conciliate environmental constraints and national development policies, Developmental additionnality of the Clean Development Mechanism and public aid to development. In the next part, she proposes an overview of her research works by distinguishing two directions: a macro-economic analysis of climate policies integrating second raw elements (Imaclim-R France), and strategies of struggle against climate change integrated into development policies. In a third part, she discusses research perspectives regarding energy transition and natural resources, mankind in the energy transition, and the citizen (scenarios, democracy and energy transition) [fr

Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Assenza, Tiziana; Bao, Te; Hommes, Cars; Massaro, Domenico; Duffy, John

Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

Economies: An Open Access Journal for the Field of Development Macroeconomics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ralf Fendel

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Economies (ISSN 2227-7099 is a new international, peer-reviewed open access journal for the academic fields of development economics and macroeconomics. While the latter seems to be clearly defined, development economics is not, because it is related to nearly all traditional economic sub-disciplines such as macroeconomics, international trade and finance, as well as microeconomics and public finance. Typically, academic field journals of development economics cover all those economic sub-disciplines. Economies instead focuses mainly on the macroeconomic perspective of economic development and it intends to publish academic research that is of strong macroeconomic policy relevance. In general, contributions in Economies should foster understanding of the macroeconomic process of economic development, with the process of development not exclusively being reserved to what we typically call developing countries. Also, the group of developed economies is still developing in the sense of improving their living standards further.

MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF DECENTRALIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emilia Cornelia STOICA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The concept of decentralization has a variety of expressions, but the meaning generally accepted refers to the transfer of authority and responsibility of the public functions from central government to sub-national public entities or even to the private sector. Decentralization process is complex, affecting many aspects of social and economic life and public management, and its design and implementation cover several stages, depending on the cyclical and structural developments of the country. From an economic perspective, decentralization is seen as a means of primary importance in terms of improving the effectiveness and efficiency of public services and macroeconomic stability due to the redistribution of public finances while in a much closer logic of the government policy objectives. But the decentralization process behaves as well some risks, because it involves the implementation of appropriate mechanisms for the establishment of income and expenditure programming at the subnational level, which, if is not correlated with macroeconomic policy imperatives can lead to major imbalances, both financially as in termes of economic and social life. Equally, ensuring the balance of the budget at the local level is imperative to fulfill, this goal imposing a legal framework and specific procedures to size transfers of public funds, targeted or untargeted. Also, public and local authorities have to adopt appropriate laws and regulations such that sub-national public entities can access loans - such as bank loans or debentures from domestic or external market - in terms of a strict monitoring national financial stability. In all aspects of decentralization - political, administrative, financial -, public authorities should develop and implement the most effective mechanisms to coordinate macroeconomic objectives and both sectoral and local interests and establish clear responsibilities - exclusive or shared - for all parties involved in the

Macroeconomic effects of high interest rate policy: Mexico’s experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julio Lopez Gallardo

2015-09-01

Full Text Available We study the effects of the high interest rate policy implemented in Mexico under the inflation targeting (IT scheme on the price level and on GDP and its components. We specify a macroeconomic model inspired by the theory of the effective demand, and on this basis we demonstrate, through comparative statics, the complex set of relationships between the variables involved, and the chain of reactions that a shock to the interest rate is likely to provoke. Our main conclusions show that an interest rate rise may be instrumental to control inflation. However, this rise contributes to appreciate the exchange rate, which is the main channel through which inflation is tamed. Currency appreciation raises the share of wages in GDP even as it reduces the debt service of firms indebted in dollars. It follows that the interest rate rise may have, under certain conditions, an indirect positive impact on output. Thus, our results diverge from those entailed by the theory that is at the basis of the inflation-targeting strategy, and even from some contemporary non-conventional approaches.

Plain packaging: an opportunity for improved international policy coherence?

Science.gov (United States)

Lencucha, Raphael; Drope, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

This paper highlights two salient challenges at the intersection of tobacco control and macroeconomic policy-making: (i) the use of trade and investment disputes to undermine and/or stall tobacco control legislation and (ii) the inconsistency, and thus unpredictability, of country positions across the two spheres. In the interest of improving international policy coherence, the authors suggest possible solutions to these two challenges at the national and intergovernmental levels. PMID:23723441

Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

Science.gov (United States)

McCallum, Bennett T.

1994-01-01

Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

Optimal Investment Control of Macroeconomic Systems

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHAO Ke-jie; LIU Chuan-zhe

2006-01-01

Economic growth is always accompanied by economic fluctuation. The target of macroeconomic control is to keep a basic balance of economic growth, accelerate the optimization of economic structures and to lead a rapid, sustainable and healthy development of national economies, in order to propel society forward. In order to realize the above goal, investment control must be regarded as the most important policy for economic stability. Readjustment and control of investment includes not only control of aggregate investment, but also structural control which depends on economic-technology relationships between various industries of a national economy. On the basis of the theory of a generalized system, an optimal investment control model for government has been developed. In order to provide a scientific basis for government to formulate a macroeconomic control policy, the model investigates the balance of total supply and aggregate demand through an adjustment in investment decisions realizes a sustainable and stable growth of the national economy. The optimal investment decision function proposed by this study has a unique and specific expression, high regulating precision and computable characteristics.

ABOUT MACROECONOMIC PURPOSE OF THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE BALANCED MACROECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey A. Vladimirov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is a theoretical substantiation of the possibility of DOS reaches the maximum possible public efficiencies of government spending, investments and taxes in perfect condition coordination bath open economic system. The proposed model can always bring in the ideal case («zero-loss" public effectively scope of public expenditure and investment to the maximum possible rate of economic growth, that allows you to substantiate the main directions of the relevant macroeconomic (fiscal, tax and budget policy.

Macroeconomic model of national economy development (extended

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Diaconova

1997-08-01

Full Text Available The macroeconomic model offered in this paper describes complex functioning of national economy and can be used for forecasting of possible directions of its development depending on various economic policies. It is the extension of [2] and adaptation of [3]. With the purpose of determination of state policies influence in the field of taxes and exchange rate national economy is considered within the framework of three sectors: government, private and external world.

Open-Economy Macroeconomics, Developments in Theory and Policy

OpenAIRE

Maurice Obstfeld

1999-01-01

This paper surveys recent research in open-economy macroeconomics, using questions raised by European economic and monetary unification to guide the topics discussed. A striking empirical regularity is the tendency for changes in the nominal exchange rate regime systematically to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike. This regularity (which disappears in high-inflation conditions) can be explained by sticky-price theories or by models of asset-market liquidity effect...

The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model

OpenAIRE

Flint Brayton; Eileen Mauskopf; David L. Reifschneider; Peter A. Tinsley; John Williams

1997-01-01

In the past year, the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System began using a new macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy referred to as the FRB/US model. This system of mathematical equations, describing interactions among economic measures such as inflation, interest rates, and gross domestic product, is one of the tools used in economic forecasting and the analysis of macroeconomic policy issues at the Board. The FRB/US model replaces the MPS model, which, with periodic...

Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

2012-09-01

Full Text Available This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes "new developmentalism" - a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries.

Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region

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Yee Peng Chow

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004–2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy, it is not spared from various sources of macroeconomic volatility through the decades. The reported data cover 15 types of macroeconomic data series, representing three broad categories of indicators that can be used to proxy macroeconomic volatility. They are indicators that account for macroeconomic volatility (i.e. volatility as a macroeconomic outcome, domestic sources of macroeconomic volatility and external sources of macroeconomic volatility. In particular, the selected countries are Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, which are regarded as developing countries, while Singapore, Japan and Australia are developed countries. Despite the differences in level of economic development, these countries were affected by similar sources of macroeconomic volatility such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. These countries were also affected by other similar external turbulence arising from factors such as the global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and volatile commodity prices. Nonetheless, there were also sources of macroeconomic volatility which were peculiar to certain countries only. These were generally domestic sources of volatility such as political instability (for Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, natural disasters and anomalous weather conditions (for Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Australia and over-dependence on the electronic sector (for Singapore. Keywords

Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Yee Peng; Muhammad, Junaina; Amin Noordin, Bany Ariffin; Cheng, Fan Fah

2018-02-01

This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004-2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy, it is not spared from various sources of macroeconomic volatility through the decades. The reported data cover 15 types of macroeconomic data series, representing three broad categories of indicators that can be used to proxy macroeconomic volatility. They are indicators that account for macroeconomic volatility (i.e. volatility as a macroeconomic outcome), domestic sources of macroeconomic volatility and external sources of macroeconomic volatility. In particular, the selected countries are Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines, which are regarded as developing countries, while Singapore, Japan and Australia are developed countries. Despite the differences in level of economic development, these countries were affected by similar sources of macroeconomic volatility such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. These countries were also affected by other similar external turbulence arising from factors such as the global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and volatile commodity prices. Nonetheless, there were also sources of macroeconomic volatility which were peculiar to certain countries only. These were generally domestic sources of volatility such as political instability (for Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines), natural disasters and anomalous weather conditions (for Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and Australia) and over-dependence on the electronic sector (for Singapore).

Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

1998-01-01

Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

2009-01-01

The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations

Financial innovation, macroeconomic volatility and the great moderation

OpenAIRE

Zaghini, Andrea; Bencivelli, Lorenzo

2012-01-01

In the paper we propose an assessment of the role of financial innovation in shaping US macroeconomic dynamics. We extend an existing model by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans which studied the transmission of monetary policy impulses to business and corporate sector financing variables just before the Great Moderation period. By investigating the properties of the model over a longer time span we show that in the later period a change in the monetary policy transmission mechanism is likely t...

The Influence of Global Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Values: A Sector Level Analysis

OpenAIRE

Şerife Özlen

2014-01-01

Investors and policy makers should carefully analyze stock returns and their possible relationships with microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in both local and global arena. Since the markets are increasingly becoming global, the outcomes may be more important for international factors. Therefore, this study aims to identify the relationship between selected international macroeconomic variables (FTSE-100 England market index, GDAX Germany market index, NYSE Composite market index, Gold pr...

MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF AN EEC POLICY TO CONTROL AIR-POLLUTION

NARCIS (Netherlands)

NENTJES, A

1991-01-01

The OECD INTERLINK model was used to assess the macroeconomic impacts of a European Community directive to control air pollution. For this purpose the model was adapted. To meet the directive the EC would have to invest some 15 billion ECU. The annual costs would be 3.4 billion ECU in 1993. The

Single European currency and Monetary Union. Macroeconomic implications for pharmaceutical spending.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanavos, P

1998-01-01

This article examines the potential implications of introducing a single currency among the Member States of the European Union for national pharmaceutical prices and spending. In doing so, it provides a brief account of the direct effects of introducing a single currency on pharmaceutical business. These are static in nature and include the elimination of exchange rate volatility and transaction costs, increased price transparency and limited potential for parallel trade. It subsequently analyses the potential medium and long term macroeconomic policy choices facing the Member States and their impact on pharmaceutical spending following the introduction of a single currency. These include policy directions in order to meet the Maastricht convergence criteria in the run-up to forming an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the implications of EMU on national macroeconomic policy thereafter. This article argues that the necessity for tight fiscal policies across the EU and, in particular, in those Member States facing high budget deficits and overall debt levels, will continue to exert considerable downward pressure on pharmaceutical spending.

An evaluation grid for the assessments of macro-economic impacts of energy transition. Working paper Nr 48

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouvrard, Jean-Francois; Scapecchi, Pascale

2014-05-01

This study aims at comparing the main available macro-economic models used to assess the consequences of policies for energy transition, and at determining their scope and limitations of validity. More precisely, the authors study the impact of two categories of policy instruments (those aimed at modifying prices and incentive ones) and the role of the adopted modelling of technical progress and of the macro-economic closure of the model. In a first part, they present various tools or models used to assess economic impacts of energy transition: technical-economic, macro-economic, general balance, and hybrid models. Then, after a presentation of some principles adopted to analyse these various models, the authors discuss price-based tools, tools based on demand support, the key role of technological progress, the impact of the macro-economic closure on the reached objective. They finally discuss the results obtained by applying an evaluation grid to energy transition scenarios. A set of recommendations is finally proposed for a better assessment of these impacts

Simulation System for Making Political and Macroeconomical Decisions and Its Development

Science.gov (United States)

Vnukov, A. A.; Blinov, A. E.

2018-01-01

Object of this research are macroeconomic indicators, which are important to descript economic situation in a country. Purpose of this work is to identify these indicators and to analyze how the state can affect these figures with available instruments. Here was constructed a model where the targets can be calculated from raw data - tools in the field of economic policy. Software code that implements all relations among the indicators and allows to analyze with high accuracy, sufficiently successful economic policies and with the help of some tools, you can achieve better results. This model can be used to forecast macroeconomic scenarios. The corresponding values of the objective (outcome) variables are set as a consequence of the configuration data of the previous period, subject to external influences and depend on the instrumental variables. The results may be useful in economical predictions. The results were successfully checked on real scenarios of Russian, European and Chinese economics. Moreover, the results can be applied in the field of education. Program is available to use as “economical game” the educational process of the University, in which you can virtually implement various macroeconomic scenarios, draw conclusions about their success.

Exchange rate formation in Ukraine and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

OpenAIRE

Koroliuk Tatiana Aleksandrovna

2014-01-01

The factors of exchange rate formation in Ukraine are analyzes in this paper, the influence of exchange rate on macroeconomic indicators of development and the main priorities of the exchange rate policy are determined exchange.

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rilind Kabashi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the short- to medium-term effects of fiscal policy on output and other macroeconomic variables in European Union countries between 1995 and 2012, with particular reference to transition countries. It applies Panel Vector Auto Regression with recursive identification of government spending shocks as the most appropriate method for the aim of the study and the sample used. The main results indicate that expansionary spending shocks have a positive, but a relatively low effect on output, with the fiscal multiplier around one in the year of the shock and the following year, and lower thereinafter. There are indications that this result is driven by the recent crisis, as multipliers are considerably lower in the pre-crisis period. Effects of fiscal policy are strongly dependent on country structural characteristics. Fiscal multipliers are higher in new European Union member states, in countries with low public debt and low trade openness. Further, spending shocks are followed by rising debt levels in old member states, which could be related well to the recent European debt crisis. Finally, the analysis of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy yields results that are consistent with both extended Real Business Cycle models and extended New Keynesian models.

Impact of the macroeconomic factors on university budgeting the US and Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Bogomolova, Arina; Balk, Igor; Ivachenko, Natalya; Temkin, Anatoly

2017-10-01

This paper discuses impact of macroeconomics factor on the university budgeting. Modern developments in the area of data science and machine learning made it possible to utilise automated techniques to address several problems of humankind ranging from genetic engineering and particle physics to sociology and economics. This paper is the first step to create a robust toolkit which will help universities sustain macroeconomic challenges utilising modern predictive analytics techniques.

The Loanable-Funds Approach to Teaching Principles of Macroeconomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Fleisher, Belton; Kopecky, Kenneth J.

1987-01-01

Argues for replacing the liquidity-preference approach with the loanable-funds approach in introductory macroeconomics courses. Claims the loanable-funds model allows students to see more clearly relationships between such economic concepts as fiscal policy and interest rates. Illustrates how this model can be used to describe the movement from…

'Time is costly': modelling the macroeconomic impact of scaling-up antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Ventelou, Bruno; Moatti, Jean-Paul; Videau, Yann; Kazatchkine, Michel

2008-01-02

Macroeconomic policy requirements may limit the capacity of national and international policy-makers to allocate sufficient resources for scaling-up access to HIV care and treatment in developing countries. An endogenous growth model, which takes into account the evolution of society's human capital, was used to assess the macroeconomic impact of policies aimed at scaling-up access to HIV/AIDS treatment in six African countries (Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast and Zimbabwe). The model results showed that scaling-up access to treatment in the affected population would limit gross domestic product losses due to AIDS although differently from country to country. In our simulated scenarios of access to antiretroviral therapy, only 10.3% of the AIDS shock is counterbalanced in Zimbabwe, against 85.2% in Angola and even 100.0% in Benin (a total recovery). For four out of the six countries (Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Ivory Coast), the macro-economic gains of scaling-up would become potentially superior to its associated costs in 2010. Despite the variability of HIV prevalence rates between countries, macro-economic estimates strongly suggest that a massive investment in scaling-up access to HIV treatment may efficiently counteract the detrimental long-term impact of the HIV pandemic on economic growth, to the extent that the AIDS shock has not already driven the economy beyond an irreversible 'no-development epidemiological trap'.

Macroeconomics correlations focused on foreign direct investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teodora ALECU

2010-07-01

Full Text Available This article is meant to reveal the way in which the theory of interconnections between systems and sub-systems partici-pating to the creation of economic value, which have been described by professor Paul Bran in his book Economics of Value is outlined in practice and how its analysis may help us to control the effects of the policies applied at the level of each macroeconomic sub-system.

On the Need for New Economic Foundations: A Critique on Mainstream Macroeconomics

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Robert Hoffman

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The body of macroeconomic theory known as the neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis, hereafter mainstream macroeconomics, has dominated the practice of economics since the middle of the twentieth century and is largely unchallenged in institutions that teach economics. Not only does mainstream macroeconomics underlie monetary and fiscal policies intended to promote economic growth, full employment, and price stability, but it also provides the lens through which economic activity is measured and performance is evaluated. Most importantly, it has spawned a generally accepted ideology or conventional wisdom that frames economic issues and ‘acceptable’ policy responses to them. Woe to the economist or politician who strays beyond the constraints imposed by the beliefs emanating from this body of theory. Mainstream economic theory has always had its critics, but the failure of mainstream economists to predict the collapse of 2008 and the failure of the policy responses to the crisis have stimulated a new round of criticism. This paper surveys a range of criticisms made by economists and non-economists alike and finds that grounds exist for the rejection of mainstream macroeconomic theory. It is mathematically incoherent and irrelevant insofar as the assumptions upon which it is based are not supportable; its concepts are abstract and not measurable, and not capable of addressing the real questions of sustainability, economic stability, power, justice, and equity that affect the human condition. The conclusions reached are: 1 mainstream economic theory took a profoundly wrong path in the mid-twentieth century 2 foundations for a new synthesis of economic thinking are needed capable of addressing the issues that emerged in the late 20th century and integrating findings from other sub-disciplines of economics and other sciences.

Macroeconomic Effects of Export Demand in Nigeria

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Bolaji Adesola Adesoye

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study examines the macroeconomic effects of aggregate export demand in Nigeria using annual time series data between 1970 and 2013. The paper made use of the ordinary least square method to analyse the long-run relationship for the period under study. The empirical results confirm that there exists a unique and significant long-run equilibrium relationship among export volume, world income, crude oil price, domestic output, exchange rate and cost of doing business. The estimated results show that domestic income has the highest elasticity, followed by world’s output and cost of doing business, which all report positive relations. Other macroeconomic factors reported negative relationship with aggregate export volume. Thus, an important policy implication of our findings is that stabilizing Nigeria’s export earnings potential by counteracting the external factors that influence adversely the Nigerian exports such as crude oil price and cost of doing business.

Reflections on modern macroeconomics: Can we travel along a safer road?

Science.gov (United States)

Gaffeo, E.; Catalano, M.; Clementi, F.; Delli Gatti, D.; Gallegati, M.; Russo, A.

2007-08-01

In this paper we sketch some reflections on the pitfalls and inconsistencies of the research program-currently dominant among the profession-aimed at providing microfoundations to macroeconomics along a Walrasian perspective. We argue that such a methodological approach constitutes an unsatisfactory answer to a well-posed research question, and that alternative promising routes have been long mapped out but only recently explored. In particular, we discuss a recent agent-based, truly non-Walrasian macroeconomic model, and we use it to envisage new challenges for future research.

Three Essays on Macroeconomics

Science.gov (United States)

Doda, Lider Baran

This dissertation consists of three independent essays in macroeconomics. The first essay studies the transition to a low carbon economy using an extension of the neoclassical growth model featuring endogenous energy efficiency, exhaustible energy and explicit climate-economy interaction. I derive the properties of the laissez faire equilibrium and compare them to the optimal allocations of a social planner who internalizes the climate change externality. Three main results emerge. First, the exhaustibility of energy generates strong market based incentives to improve energy efficiency and reduce CO 2 emissions without any government intervention. Second, the market and optimal allocations are substantially different suggesting a role for the government. Third, high and persistent taxes are required to implement the optimal allocations as a competitive equilibrium with taxes. The second essay focuses on coal fired power plants (CFPP) - one of the largest sources of CO2 emissions globally - and their generation efficiency using a macroeconomic model with an embedded CFPP sector. A key feature of the model is the endogenous choice of production technologies which differ in their energy efficiency. After establishing four empirical facts about the CFPP sector, I analyze the long run quantitative effects of energy taxes. Using the calibrated model, I find that sector-specific coal taxes have large effects on generation efficiency by inducing the use of more efficient technologies. Moreover, such taxes achieve large CO2 emissions reductions with relatively small effects on consumption and output. The final essay studies the procyclicality of fiscal policy in developing countries, which is a well-documented empirical observation seemingly at odds with Neoclassical and Keynesian policy prescriptions. I examine this issue by solving the optimal fiscal policy problem of a small open economy government when the interest rates on external debt are endogenous. Given an

Interactive Macroeconomics

Science.gov (United States)

Di Guilmi, Corrado; Gallegati, Mauro; Landini, Simone

2017-04-01

Preface; List of tables; List of figures, 1. Introduction; Part I. Methodological Notes and Tools: 2. The state space notion; 3. The master equation; Part II. Applications to HIA Based Models: 4. Financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics I: heterogeneity and interaction; 5. Financial fragility and macroeconomic Dynamics II: learning; Part III. Conclusions: 6. Conclusive remarks; Part IV. Appendices and Complements: Appendix A: Complements to Chapter 3; Appendix B: Solving the ME to solve the ABM; Appendix C: Specifying transition rates; Index.

Japan's Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Reconstruction

OpenAIRE

Ihori, Toshihiro; Nakamoto, Atsushi

2005-01-01

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy and the fiscal reconstruction movement in Japan. We first summarize Japan's fiscal policy in recent years and discuss advantages and disadvantages of government deficits. Next, we investigate the macroeconomic effects of Japanese fiscal policy and evaluate the plausibility of non-Keynesian effects. We also analyze the possibility of the crowding-in effect of fiscal policy and investigate the spillover effects of deregulation. ...

Development assistance for health: should policy-makers worry about its macroeconomic impact?

Science.gov (United States)

Cavagnero, Eleonora; Lane, Christopher; Evans, David B; Carrin, Guy

2008-11-01

Many low-income countries need to substantially increase expenditure to meet universal coverage goals for essential health services but, because they have very low-incomes, most will be unable to raise adequate funds exclusively from domestic sources in the short to medium term. Increased aid for health will be required. However, there has long been a concern that the rapid arrival of large amounts of foreign exchange in a country could lead to an increase in inflation and loss of international competitiveness, with an adverse impact on exports and economic growth, an economic phenomenon termed 'Dutch disease'. We review cross-country and country-level empirical studies and propose a simple framework to gauge the extent of macroeconomic risks. Of the 15 low-income countries that are increasing aid-financed health spending, 7 have high macroeconomic risks that may constrain the sustained expansion of spending. These conditions also apply in one-quarter of the 42 countries not presently increasing spending. Health authorities should be aware of the multiple risk factors at play, including factors that are health-sector specific and others that generally are not. They should also realize that there are effective means for mitigating the risk of Dutch disease associated with increasing development assistance for health. International partners also have an important role to play since more sustainable and predictable flows of donor funding will allow more productivity enhancing investment in physical and human capital, which will also contribute to ensuring there are few harmful macroeconomic effects of increases in aid.

Macroeconomic dataset for generating macroeconomic volatility among selected countries in the Asia Pacific region

OpenAIRE

Chow, Yee Peng; Muhammad, Junaina; Amin Noordin, Bany Ariffin; Cheng, Fan Fah

2017-01-01

This data article provides macroeconomic data that can be used to generate macroeconomic volatility. The data cover a sample of seven selected countries in the Asia Pacific region for the period 2004–2014, including both developing and developed countries. This dataset was generated to enhance our understanding of the sources of macroeconomic volatility affecting the countries in this region. Although the Asia Pacific region continues to remain as the most dynamic part of the world's economy,...

A Comparison of Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Approaches to Deforestation Analysis

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Jeff Felardo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The economics of deforestation has been explored in detail. Generally, the frame of analysis takes either a microeconomics or macroeconomics approach. The microeconomics approach assumes that individual decision makers are responsible for deforestation as a result of utility maximizing behavior and imperfect property right regimes. The macroeconomics approach explores nationwide trends thought to be associated with forest conversion. This paper investigates the relationship between these two approaches by empirically testing the determinants of deforestation using the same data set from Thailand. The theory for both the microeconomics-based and macroeconomics-based approaches are developed and then tested statistically. The models were constructed using established theoretical frames developed in the literature. The results from both models show statistical significance consistent with prior results in the tropical deforestation literature. A comparison of the two approaches demonstrates that the macro approach is useful in identifying relevant aggregate trends in the deforestation process; the micro approach provides the opportunity to isolate factors of those trends which are necessary for effective policy decisions.

Essentials aspects on macroeconomic variables and their correlations

OpenAIRE

Constantin ANGHELACHE; Alexandru MANOLE; Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL; Aurelian DIACONU

2016-01-01

The measurement of the correlations between macroeconomic variables, including the cause-effect links, provide useful information for policy makers in the government and public agencies. Especially important is the system of relationships that reveals the influence of certain factors on the Gross Domestic Product. This paper outlines the influence of the unemployment, measured through the unemployment rate, the inflation. Also, the authors discuss the correlations of the econom...

Macroeconomic Issues in Foreign Aid

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjertholm, Peter; Laursen, Jytte; White, Howard

foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,......foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,...

Causes and Effects in Macroeconomics: 2011 Nobel Prize Lecture in Economic Sciences

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Shlair Abdulkhaleq Al-Zanganee

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Noble Laureates Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims have been granted the 2011 Noble Prize in economic sciences in appreciation of their empirical research on causes and effects in macroeconomics. The controversy on causality in macroeconomics was discussed in both of Sargent’s and Sims’s 2011 Prize lectures. While Sargent attempts to use the economic theory to interpret some historical events in order to gain insights on some contemporary issues, such as sovereign defaults, federal bailouts, and the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, Sims is emphasizing the importance of large-scale economic models and calling for more research to be done in that area.

Report on modelling the macroeconomic competitiveness impacts of EU climate change policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This report details the results of a study carried out by Oxford Economics on the macroeconomic impacts of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on competitiveness in different sectors and different Member States. An economic model was used to assess the impacts of carbon pricing, building on previous work that looked at the effects on the UK economy. The model was used to estimate the impact on competitiveness and output associated with various carbon prices and assumptions for the proposed third EU ETS trading period (2013-2023) by sector for all countries. The model covered 30 sectors for each of the 27 EU Member states plus the USA, Japan and China. The report describes the EU model methodology (direct cost effects, second-round cost effects, cost effects without substitution, cost effects after substitution, pass through to prices, and output effects) and the key results in terms of: impacts of carbon-reduction policies unilateral EU action, sectoral impacts, electricity generation sector only; the non-power sector in the ETS; global action; developed world action; and a summary across all scenarios. The three annexes set out the UK Energy Industry Model (UKEIM), model equations for the EU-wide model and modelling assumptions for electricity generation

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

OpenAIRE

Luis Viceira; Carolin Pflueger; John Campbell

2014-01-01

How do monetary policy rules, monetary policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic shocks affect the risk properties of US Treasury bonds? The exposure of US Treasury bonds to the stock market has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average over the period 1960-2011, it was unusually high in the 1980s, and negative in the 2000s, a period during which Treasury bonds enabled investors to hedge macroeconomic risks. This paper develops a New Keynesian macroeconomic model wit...

The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barker, T.; Dagoumas, A. [Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9PE (United Kingdom); Rubin, J. [School of Economics, University of Maine, 5782 Winslow Hall, Orono, ME 04469-5782 (United States)

2009-11-15

This paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the global economy arising from energy-efficiency policies. Such policies are expected to be a leading component of climate policy portfolios being proposed and adopted in order to achieve climate stabilisation targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050, such as the G8 50% reduction target by 2050. We apply the global 'New Economics' or Post Keynesian model E3MG, developing the version reported in IPCC AR4 WG3. The rebound effect refers to the idea that some or all of the expected reductions in energy consumption as a result of energy-efficiency improvements are offset by an increasing demand for energy services, arising from reductions in the effective price of energy services resulting from those improvements. As policies to stimulate energy-efficiency improvements are a key part of climate-change policies, the likely magnitude of any rebound effect is of great importance to assessing the effectiveness of those policies. The literature distinguishes three types of rebound effect from energy-efficiency improvements: direct, indirect and economy-wide. The macroeconomic rebound effect, which is the focus of this paper, is the combination of the indirect and economy-wide effects. Estimates of the effects of no-regrets efficiency policies are reported by the International Energy Agency in World Energy Outlook, 2006, and synthesised in the IPCC AR4 WG3 report. We analyse policies for the transport, residential and services buildings and industrial sectors of the economy for the post-2012 period, 2013-2030. The estimated direct rebound effect, implicit in the IEA WEO/IPCC AR4 estimates, is treated as exogenous, based on estimates from the literature, globally about 10%. The total rebound effect, however, is 31% by 2020 rising to 52% by 2030. The total effect includes the direct effect and the effects of (1) the lower cost of energy on energy demand in the three broad sectors as well as of (2) the extra consumers

The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, T.; Dagoumas, A.; Rubin, J.

2009-01-01

This paper examines the macroeconomic rebound effect for the global economy arising from energy-efficiency policies. Such policies are expected to be a leading component of climate policy portfolios being proposed and adopted in order to achieve climate stabilisation targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050, such as the G8 50% reduction target by 2050. We apply the global 'New Economics' or Post Keynesian model E3MG, developing the version reported in IPCC AR4 WG3. The rebound effect refers to the idea that some or all of the expected reductions in energy consumption as a result of energy-efficiency improvements are offset by an increasing demand for energy services, arising from reductions in the effective price of energy services resulting from those improvements. As policies to stimulate energy-efficiency improvements are a key part of climate-change policies, the likely magnitude of any rebound effect is of great importance to assessing the effectiveness of those policies. The literature distinguishes three types of rebound effect from energy-efficiency improvements: direct, indirect and economy-wide. The macroeconomic rebound effect, which is the focus of this paper, is the combination of the indirect and economy-wide effects. Estimates of the effects of no-regrets efficiency policies are reported by the International Energy Agency in World Energy Outlook, 2006, and synthesised in the IPCC AR4 WG3 report. We analyse policies for the transport, residential and services buildings and industrial sectors of the economy for the post-2012 period, 2013-2030. The estimated direct rebound effect, implicit in the IEA WEO/IPCC AR4 estimates, is treated as exogenous, based on estimates from the literature, globally about 10%. The total rebound effect, however, is 31% by 2020 rising to 52% by 2030. The total effect includes the direct effect and the effects of (1) the lower cost of energy on energy demand in the three broad sectors as well as of (2) the extra consumers' expenditure

Macroeconomic susceptibility, inflation, and aggregate supply

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, Raymond J.

2017-03-01

We unify aggregate-supply dynamics as a time-dependent susceptibility-mediated relationship between inflation and aggregate economic output. In addition to representing well various observations of inflation-output dynamics this parsimonious formalism provides a straightforward derivation of popular representations of aggregate-supply dynamics and a natural basis for economic-agent expectations as an element of inflation formation. Our formalism also illuminates questions of causality and time-correlation that challenge central banks for whom aggregate-supply dynamics is a key constraint in their goal of achieving macroeconomic stability.

Do economic policy decisions affect stock market development in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Efficient Market Hypothesis proposes that macroeconomic policy actions do not influence stock market development but the Tobin's q theory argues otherwise. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the impact of macroeconomic policy on the development of the Ghana Stock ...

Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation

OpenAIRE

Flavin, Thomas; Wickens, M.R.

2003-01-01

We develop a tactical asset allocation strategy that incorporates the effects of macroeconomic variables. The joint distribution of financial asset returns and the macroeconomic variables is modelled using a VAR with a multivariate GARCH (M-GARCH) error structure. As a result, the portfolio frontier is time varying and subject to contagion from the macroeconomic variable. Optimal asset allocation requires that this be taken into account. We illustrate how to do this using three ri...

Macroeconomic Proportions and Corellations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin Mitrut

2006-04-01

Full Text Available The work is focusing on the main proportions and correlations which are being set up between the major macroeconomic indicators. This is the general frame for the analysis of the relations between the Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the unemployment rate; the interaction between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate; the connection between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Within the analysis being performed, a particular attention is paid to “the basic relationship of the economic growth” by emphasizing the possibilities as to a factorial analysis of the macroeconomic development, mainly as far as the Gross Domestic Product is concerned. At this point, the authors are introducing the mathematical relations, which are used for modeling the macroeconomic correlations, hence the strictness of the analysis being performed.

Is macroeconomic announcement news priced?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Goeij, Peter; Hu, Jiehui; Werker, Bas

2016-01-01

We test whether news contained in macroeconomic announcements (MEAs) is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. When including news on a set of widely followed individual macroeconomic fundamentals in the cross-section of stock returns, estimates of their prices of risk are consistent with the

The effect of macroeconomic conditions on the care decisions of the employed.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Danny R; Khaliq, Amir A

2014-02-01

Medical care utilization has been found to be affected indirectly by changes in economic conditions through associated changes in employment or insurance status. However, if individuals interpret external macroeconomic conditions as employment risk, they may alter decisions to seek care even if they remain both employed and insured. To examine the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and the medical care usage of Americans who are both employed and insured. Restricting the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 1995 to 2008 to respondents whose employment status and insurance status did not change, we employed a fixed-effect Poisson model to examine the association between state average annual unemployment rates and the utilization of 12 medical services. The average annual state unemployment rate was found to be a significant factor in hospital outpatient visits (P macroeconomic conditions are an important factor in the medical decisions of employed and insured individuals. Thus, policy changes that increase access among the unemployed or uninsured may mitigate this employment risk effect and create incentives that potentially alter the utilization decisions among those currently both employed and insured.

Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Developing Countries: Approaches and Issues

OpenAIRE

Anuradha Seth; Amr Ragab

2012-01-01

Economic vulnerability is approached from micro- and macroeconomic perspectives. While the microeconomic perspective is concerned with the impact of shocks on the well-being of individual households, the macroeconomic perspective focuses on the impact of these shocks on economic growth. This paper reviews the literature on macroeconomic vulnerability and finds that there is no single approach to understanding macroeconomic vulnerability in the context of financial and economic crises in devel...

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Value-Added Agriculture: Approach of Vector Autoregresive Bayesian Model (BVAR

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E. Pishbahar

2015-05-01

Full Text Available There are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. To answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. In the present study, the Bayesian Vector autoregresive model and seasonality data for the years between 1991 and 2013 was used to determine the impact of monetary policy on value-added agriculture. Predicts of Vector autoregresive model are usually divertaed due to a lot of parameters in the model. Bayesian vector autoregresive model estimates more reliable predictions due to reducing the number of included parametrs and considering the former models. Compared to the Vector Autoregressive model, the coefficients are estimated more accurately. Based on the results of RMSE in this study, previous function Nrmal-Vyshart was identified as a suitable previous disteribution. According to the results of the impulse response function, the sudden effects of shocks in macroeconomic variables on the value added in agriculture and domestic venture capital are stable. The effects on the exchange rates, tax revenues and monetary will bemoderated after 7, 5 and 4periods. Monetary policy shocks ,in the first half of the year, increased the value added of agriculture, while in the second half of the year had a depressing effect on the value added.

Time to Shift from Macro- to Micro-Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Dongchul; Shin, Sukha

2012-01-01

All of the authors seem to share the perception that one can no longer expect much from macroeconomic policies. The authors of this paper share this opinion, but this should not be interpreted as the skeptical view that macroeconomic policies are ineffective on employment. They saw from the Korea's two crises how contrasting outcomes could result…

Macro-economic effects of two policy variants to reduce greenhouse gas emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vromans, M.W.A.M.

1998-10-01

The macro-economic effects of two variants for reducing CO2-emissions by yearly 2% in the period 2000-2020 have been calculated. Regulations as limiting the maximum speed to 90 km/h on motorways and lowering the standards of energy use of houses form an important part of variant 1. In the second variant the competitive market policy plays a more important role. An increase of the existing small-user energy tax to four times the current level and an introduction of tradeable reduction certificates are among the policy measures. In both variants, but in variant 2 more than in variant 1, backstop-options, e.g. import of biomass and carbon dioxide storage, are added to further reduce the emissions. The effects on energy and the environment and the costs of the policy packages have been calculated by the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN). Those figures served as input for the CPB-calculations with the multi-sectoral model Athena. In variant 1 the volume of private consumption (an indicator for the material welfare loss) is, in 2020, 1.5% lower in comparison with the baseline scenario. GDP diminishes with 1 % and labour demand is 0.5% lower. As a consequence of the gradually increasing government subsidies to finance the extra costs of environmental investments and backstop-options the negative effects are increasing gradually too. This process will continue also after 2020 because the subsidies will be still growing after the scenario period. The negative effects of variant 2 in 2020 are about 50% higher than the results for variant 1. Private consumption decreases with 2.5%, GDP is 1.75% lower and employment diminishes with 0.75%. More subsidies for backstop-options, a higher increase of the small-user energy tax and a less positive effect because of less environmental investments, particularly less investments in dwellings, account for the more negative picture in comparison with the results for variant 1. The study ends with some points of discussion as

Macroeconomic Proportions and Corellations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin Anghelache

2006-02-01

Full Text Available The work is focusing on the main proportions and correlations which are being set up between the major macroeconomic indicators. This is the general frame for the analysis of the relations between the Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the unemployment rate; the interaction between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate; the connection between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Within the analysis being performed, a particular attention is paid to �the basic relationship of the economic growth� by emphasizing the possibilities as to a factorial analysis of the macroeconomic development, mainly as far as the Gross Domestic Product is concerned. At this point, the authors are introducing the mathematical relations, which are used for modeling the macroeconomic correlations, hence the strictness of the analysis being performed.

The structuralist tradition in economics: methodological and macroeconomics aspects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

FABRÍCIO MISSIO

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the structuralist tradition in economics, emphasizing the role that structures play in the economic growth of developing countries. Since the subject at hand is evidently too large to cover in a single article, an emphasis has been brought to bear upon the macroeconomic elements of such a tradition, while also exploring its methodological aspects. It begins by analysing some general aspects of structuralism in economics (its evolution and origins associated with ECLAC thought, in this instance focusing on the dynamics of the center-periphery relationship. Thereafter, the macroeconomic structuralism derived from the works of Taylor (1983, 1991 is presented, followed by a presentation of neo-structuralism. Centred on the concept of systemic competitiveness, this approach defines a strategy to achieve the high road of globalization, understood here as an inevitable process in spite of its engagement being dependent on the policies adopted. The conclusions show the genuine contributions of this tradition to economic theory.

Visibility graph analysis on quarterly macroeconomic series of China based on complex network theory

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Na; Li, Dong; Wang, Qiwen

2012-12-01

The visibility graph approach and complex network theory provide a new insight into time series analysis. The inheritance of the visibility graph from the original time series was further explored in the paper. We found that degree distributions of visibility graphs extracted from Pseudo Brownian Motion series obtained by the Frequency Domain algorithm exhibit exponential behaviors, in which the exponential exponent is a binomial function of the Hurst index inherited in the time series. Our simulations presented that the quantitative relations between the Hurst indexes and the exponents of degree distribution function are different for different series and the visibility graph inherits some important features of the original time series. Further, we convert some quarterly macroeconomic series including the growth rates of value-added of three industry series and the growth rates of Gross Domestic Product series of China to graphs by the visibility algorithm and explore the topological properties of graphs associated from the four macroeconomic series, namely, the degree distribution and correlations, the clustering coefficient, the average path length, and community structure. Based on complex network analysis we find degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of value-added of three industry series are almost exponential and the degree distributions of associated networks from the growth rates of GDP series are scale free. We also discussed the assortativity and disassortativity of the four associated networks as they are related to the evolutionary process of the original macroeconomic series. All the constructed networks have “small-world” features. The community structures of associated networks suggest dynamic changes of the original macroeconomic series. We also detected the relationship among government policy changes, community structures of associated networks and macroeconomic dynamics. We find great influences of government

A study on macroeconomic cost of CCS in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ji-Whan; Kim, Yoon Kyung

2015-04-01

CCS is an important measure for mitigating the problem of World Climate Change and already several projects are entered the step of commercialization. The benefits of CCS implementation ultimately depends on the alleviation level of CO2 on earth because it is caused by the mitigation of the World Climate Change problem. Thus it is possible not to coincide at same time between starting the CCS and getting the benefits. Considering the high costs of CCS, the time mismatch between imposing the costs and getting the benefits is apt to impose some heavy burden on the individual national economy. For this reason, at the political decision-making, the policy makers should consider the macroeconomic effects. Meanwhile, Korean electricity market's supply side is comprised of competitive production and a sole distributor(public enterprise) and then electricity is supplied by a single price structure(administered pricing). Under this condition, if CCS is introduced to power setor, electric charges must be increased and production costs will go high. High production costs will have unfavourable effects on disposable income, price level, purchasing power and so on. In order to minimize these effects, policy makers have to consider the economic effects of introducing CCS. This study estimates the microscopic cost of CCS using ICCSEM 2.0 methodology made by CO2CRC and after that, the macroeconomic effects of introducing CCS is estimated on the basis of microscopic cost estimating results. The macroeconomic effects of CCS applied to Power Generation sector are estimated using macroeconometrics model and Input-Output analysis. A macroeconometrics model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the national economy. This model is usually applied to examine the dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, the level of prices and so forth. Introducing

MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Tutberidze

2017-04-01

Full Text Available There are many arguments that can be advanced to support the forecasting activities of business entities. The underlying argument in favor of forecasting is that managerial decisions are significantly dependent on proper evaluation of future trends as market conditions are constantly changing and require a detailed analysis of future dynamics. The article discusses the importance of using reasonable macro-econometric tool by suggesting the idea of conditional forecasting through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR modeling framework. Under this framework, a macroeconomic model for Georgian economy is constructed with the few variables believed to be shaping business environment. Based on the model, forecasts of macroeconomic variables are produced, and three types of scenarios are analyzed - a baseline and two alternative ones. The results of the study provide confirmatory evidence that suggested methodology is adequately addressing the research phenomenon and can be used widely by business entities in responding their strategic and operational planning challenges. Given this set-up, it is shown empirically that Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach provides reasonable forecasts for the variables of interest.

Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in MENA Countries

OpenAIRE

Balcilar, Mehmet; Bagzibagli, Kemal

2010-01-01

A close examination of the MENA region economies reveals a number of fundamental sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. These include economic factors such as exchange rate instability, large public debt, current account deficits, and escalation of inflation. The political factors such as government instability, corruption, bureaucracy, and internal conflicts also are major sources of macroeconomic instability. Thus, the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in these countri...

Market versus agriculture in Poland – macroeconomic relations of incomes, prices and productivity in terms of the sustainable development paradigm

OpenAIRE

CZYŻEWSKI, Bazyli; MAJCHRZAK, Adam

2017-01-01

In the article macroeconomic relations of prices, productivity and incomes in Polish agriculture in the context of changes in the EU Common Agricultural Policy were studied. The authors have developed a macroeconomic model which explains these relations and confirms the occurrence of market failures in agriculture in Poland. The developed model proves the existence of a puzzling exchangeable relation between the real productivity of production factors in agriculture, and agricultural incomes,...

Associations Between the Macroeconomic Indicators and Suicide Rates in India: Two Ecological Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajkumar, Anto P; Senthilkumar, P; Gayathri, K; Shyamsundar, G; Jacob, K S

2015-01-01

While western studies have focused on the importance of psychiatric illnesses in the complex pathways leading to suicides, several Indian studies have highlighted the important contributions by economic, social, and cultural factors. Hence, we tested the hypothesis that annual national suicide rates and suicide rates of the different states in India were associated with macroeconomic indices. Data from the National crime records bureau, Ministry of finance, labour bureau, Government of India, population commission, and planning commission official portals, World Bank and the United Nations were accessed. We assessed the correlations of annual national and state-wise suicide rates with macroeconomic, health, and other indices using ecological study design for India, and for its different states and union territories. We documented statistically significant associations between the suicide rates and per capita gross domestic product, consumer price index, foreign exchange, trade balance, total health expenditure as well as literacy rates. As recent economic growth in India is associated with increasing suicide rates, macroeconomic policies emphasizing equitable distribution of resources may help curtailing the population suicide rates in India.

Statistical – Econometric Analysis of the Correlations between the Social Security Budget and the Main Macroeconomic Aggregates in Romania

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Emilia ŢIŢAN

2011-02-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the correlation between social security budget and the main macroeconomic indicators (like GDP, monthly average gross earnings, unemployment in Romania during the period 2000 – 2009. Romania faces a more severe economic recession than originally anticipated. Although the implementation of anti-crisis program was able to lead to normalization of financial conditions, the contraction of economic activity is higher than initial projections. Because of the great policy debate in Romania about the impact of the reduction of pensions and salaries and increases of taxations on the reduction of budget deficit, we have explained in our paper the basic sides of the balanced budget debate. There are three basic sides to the balanced budget debate. The traditionalists argue for a reduction of the budget deficit since it harms the economy. Another group holds the Ricardian view of government debt in believing that there is no real harm done to the economy by the national debt. A third group claims one way or another that the budget deficit is not an adequate measure of fiscal policy. We will argue which of these views is most reasonable, based on a study case. The study is based on official data published by the National Institute of Statistics, with the specification that they are transformed into real values in order to assure the data comparability. The methodology used is the correlation analysis, the factorial analysis and the regression analysis, in order to evaluate the impact of some macroeconomic policies on the budget deficit. Three hypotheses on macroeconomic policies are discussed in the paper and their influences on the budget deficit. The main problem in Romania was that the macroeconomic policies didn't give enough attention to budget deficit in order to keep it under control. This is the main cause of the actual unfavourable economical situation in Romania, with a huge budget deficit, with a decrease in economic activity

Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng Wei

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Using annual data from 1997–2014 of 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, subdividing trended and cyclical volatility of macroeconomics and inflation, considering different indicators of financial development and financial structure, this paper investigated the impact of financial development and financial structure on macroeconomic volatility. The empirical results found that (1 the trended and cyclical volatility of the previous macroeconomic period had a significantly positive impact on that of the current period, and the impact of trended volatility was greater than that of cyclical volatility; (2 financial development had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility through inflation cyclical volatility, but inflation trended volatility would amplify macroeconomic volatility; financial markets have no significant effect on macroeconomic volatility; financial structure measured with the ratio of stock market turnover and the efficiency of the financial development had a significant positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility; and (3 inflation trended volatility had a significantly negative impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility and trended volatility, while inflation cyclical volatility had a significantly positive impact on macroeconomic cyclical volatility.

New Zealand: The Last Bastion of Textbook Open-Economy Macroeconomics

OpenAIRE

David Fielding

2011-01-01

Recent empirical research into the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks has generated a 'puzzle'. Both Keynesian and Real Business Cycle models predict that a fiscal expansion will lead to a real exchange rate appreciation. However, in almost all the countries that have been studied, positive shocks to government spending cause the real exchange rate to depreciate. Recent theoretical work suggests that this unexpected result might reflect incomplete international financial market int...

Macroeconomic impacts of energy efficiency measures in the housing, business and transport sectors; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen von Energieeffizienzmassnahmen in den Bereichen Gebaeude, Unternehmen und Verkehr

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schade, Wolfgang; Luellmann, Arne; Beckmann, Ruth; Koehler, Jonathan [Fraunhofer-Institut System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

2009-10-15

In August 2007 the German government agreed on the Integrated Energy and Climate Package (IECP) at Meseberg. This IECP-Macro study analyses the macroeconomic impacts of the IECP in Germany. The focus of analysis in IECP-Macro was on macroeconomic indicators, in particular on gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, investment and employment. This study links a bottom-up analysis of single policy measures with a macroeconomic analysis. The bottom-up impacts are fed into the ASTRA model, in which they trigger the macroeconomic impacts, e.g. a change of final demand in terms of investment or consumption. In total five scenarios have been analysed and have been compared with a reference scenario of the ASTRA model that has been aligned with the business-as-usual scenario of the project ''Politics Scenarios IV''. The basic conclusion of the analysis is that the economic stimulus of increased investment in climate policy stimulates economic growth in the short- and medium-term. Energy savings have the greatest effect to safeguard or even increase employment in the long run. (orig.)

The Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and ISE Industry Index

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Ahmet Ozcan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE industry index is examined. Over the past years, numerous studies have analyzed these relationships and the different results obtained from these studies have motivated further research. The relationship between stock exchange index and macroeconomic variables has been well documented for the developed markets. However, there are few studies regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock exchange index for the developing markets. Thus, this paper seeks to address the question of whether macroeconomic variables have a significant relationship with ISE industry index using monthly data for the period from 2003 to 2010. The selected macroeconomic variables for the study include interest rates, consumer price index, money supply, exchange rate, gold prices, oil prices, current account deficit and export volume. The Johansen’s cointegration test is utilized to determine the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on ISE industry index. The result of the Johansen’s cointegration shows that macroeconomic variables exhibit a long run equilibrium relationship with the ISE industry index.

Brazil’s international economic placement: the challenges of the Dilma government

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Ricardo Sennes

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Brazil’s recent growth – combined with the optimum conditions of its external accounts and the realisation of its macroeconomic policies – has placed the country in a good position to recover its public policies and strategies over the long term. Several of these policies began to be implemented in the final years of Lula da Silva’s government, and they should be continued during Dilma Rousseff’s current government, by focusing particularly on public investment policy, industrial and technology policy and regional economic placement. However, the positive results of the current period have begun to reveal a number of limitations and shortcomings. These will be the specific challenges for the Rousseff government over the coming years.

Data-Based Active Learning in the Principles of Macroeconomics Course: A Mock FOMC Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

Whiting, Cathleen

2006-01-01

The author presents an active-learning exercise for the introductory macroeconomics class in which students participate in a mock Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Preparation involves data gathering and writing both a research report and a policy recommendation. An FOMC meeting is simulated in which students give their policy…

Cost effectiveness of GHG mitigation options and policy implication

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lim, K. S. [Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1998-04-01

This paper represents the summary findings and conclusions of several studies implemented about microeconomics and macroeconomics marginal costs of GHG abatement policies. Financial, economic, and, where possible, environmental microeconomics costs of reducing GHGs are estimated by a World Bank team. Six energy-related CO{sub 2} mitigation policy options are applied to estimate the macroeconomics costs of GHG emission reduction, the macroeconomics impacts on the Chinese economy. In terms of policy, conservation is a better option to cope with a restrictive mitigation constraint, assuming a developing country can achieve planned energy-saving targets. Without a CO{sub 2} emission constraint or with less restrictive CO{sub 2} emission constraints, however, the simulation results indicate that a conservation strategy may be less attractive than fuel substitution in a developing country, mainly due to the economic dampening effect of reduced production in the energy sectors. This finding suggests that an often-cited costless or negative-cost energy conservation policy may not be a better option when a less restrictive mitigation target is in force. This does not mean that the potential for energy efficiency improvements in a developing country is not worthwhile, but that the overall macroeconomics impacts should be considered before implementing the policy option. (author). 9 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

Microeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Indeterminacy

OpenAIRE

Fagnart, Jean-François; Pierrard, Olivier; Sneessens, Henri

2005-01-01

The paper proposes a stylized intertemporal macroeconomic model wherein the combination of decentralized trading and microeconomic uncertainty (taking the form of privately observed and uninsured idiosyncratic shocks) creates an information problem between agents and generates indeterminacy of the macroeconomic equilibrium. For a given value of the economic fundamentals, the economy admits a continuum of equilibria that can be indexed by the sales expectations of firms at the time of investme...

Romania’s Macroeconomic Steering in 2015 - between Enthusiasm and Recession Risk

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Cristian - Marian Barbu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This article reveals that, despite having a solid macro-economic state and a significant economic growth as starting points, those who conceive the fiscal-budgetary macroeconomic policies in Romania apply more enthusiasm than principles of responsibility, prudence and sustainability. While economic growth in Romania is over 3% of the GDP, public debt of a little over 40% of the GDP, budget revenues with 7.8% bigger than during the first 9 months of the previous year, and budgetary surplus of almost 1% of the GDP after the first 8 months, the 2016 budget prospects look good. Well, they are actually not. If the Government implements the budgetary expenditure announced, the budget deficit may explode which may lead, in 2018, to exceeding the maximal critical threshold of public debt, and in this case, according to the Romanian National Bank, the recession risk will be over 50%.

Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Charlotte; Ranaldo, Angelo

2005-01-01

We investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. Our results deliver insights into the dominating drivers of bond-stock comovements. We find that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact...... that an announcement occurs that influences the realized bond-stock correlation. The impact of macroeconomic announcements varies across the business cycle. Announcement effects are highly dependent on the sign of the realized bond-stock correlation which has recently gone from positive to negative. Macroeconomic...

Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk

OpenAIRE

Smith, Peter N; Wickens, Michael R.

2002-01-01

This Paper is an exploration into the links between macroeconomics and finance as they affect the FOREX risk premium. SDF theory is used in which the factors are observable macroeconomic variables. Three SDF theories are compared: a benchmark model based on traditional tests of FOREX efficiency; consumption-based CAPM; and the monetary model of the exchange rate. The theory takes account of both domestic and foreign investors. The joint distribution of the excess return to FOREX and the macro...

Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising

OpenAIRE

Isil Erel; Brandon Julio; Woojin Kim; Michael S. Weisbach

2011-01-01

Do macroeconomic conditions affect firms' abilities to raise capital? If so, how do they affect the manner in which the capital is raised? We address these questions using a large sample of publicly-traded debt issues, seasoned equity offers, bank loans and private placements of equity and debt. Our results suggest that a borrower's credit quality significantly affects its ability to raise capital during macroeconomic downturns. For noninvestment-grade borrowers, capital raising tends to be p...

Asymmetric information and macroeconomic dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, Raymond J.; Aoki, Masanao; Roy Frieden, B.

2010-09-01

We show how macroeconomic dynamics can be derived from asymmetric information. As an illustration of the utility of this approach we derive the equilibrium density, non-equilibrium densities and the equation of motion for the response to a demand shock for productivity in a simple economy. Novel consequences of this approach include a natural incorporation of time dependence into macroeconomics and a common information-theoretic basis for economics and other fields seeking to link micro-dynamics and macro-observables.

Modeling investment uncertainty in the costs of global CO2 emission policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birge, J.R.; Rosa, C.H.

1995-01-01

This paper investigates the effect that explicit modeling of stochastic returns to investment has on the CO 2 abatement policy returned by a large scale macroeconomic model of the United States economy. It was found that a policy derived from the mean value deterministic model in which the random variables of the stochastic model have been replaced by their expected value poorly approximates the optimal policy returned by solving the stochastic programming model. This nonoptimality is measured by determining the value of the stochastic solution and investigating the different evolutionary paths that various macroeconomic variables follow. Macroeconomic variables which stray far from their optimal paths when derived under the assumption of a certain mean valued future are as follows: the level of carbon taxation, investment in new energy production technologies, exploration for nonrenewable resources and investment in improved macroeconomic efficiency. 18 refs., 17 figs., 6 tabs

A full description of the Three-ME model: Multi-sector macro-economic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Callonnec, Gael; Landa, Gissela; Malliet, Paul; Yeddir-Tamsamani, Yasser; Reynes, Frederic

2013-01-01

Since 2008, the ADEME and the OFCE are involved in a research convention to develop the model Three-ME. This document provides a full description of new version of the model. Three-ME is a new model of the French economy especially designed to evaluate the medium and long term impact of environmental and energy policies at the macro-economic and sector levels. To do so Three-ME combines two important features. Firstly, it has the main characteristics of neo-Keynesian models by assuming a slow adjustment of effective quantities and prices to their notional level, an endogenous money supply, a Taylor rule and a Philips curve. Compared to standard multi-sector CGEM, this has the advantage to allow for the existence of under-optimum equilibria such as the presence of involuntary unemployment. Secondly, Three-ME is a hybrid model in the sense that it combines the top-down approach of general equilibrium macro-economic models with elements of bottom-up models of energy models developed by engineers. As in bottom-up models, the amount of energy consumed is related to their use, that is the number of buildings or cars, and the energy class to which they belong. This hypothesis is more realistic compared to the assumption made in the majority of top-down models where energy consumption is usually directly related to income through a nested structure of utility function. (authors)

Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Ato Forson

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates and analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship between the Thai stock Exchange Index (SETI and selected macroeconomic variables using monthly time series data that cover a 20-year period from January 1990 to December 2009. The following macroeconomic variables are included in our analysis: money supply (MS, the consumer price index (CPI, interest rate (IR and the industrial production index (IP (as a proxy for GDP. Our findings prove that the SET Index and the selected macroeconomic variables are cointegrated at I (1 and have a significant equilibrium relationship over the long run. Money supply demonstrates a strong positive relationship with the SET Index over the long run, whereas the industrial production index and consumer price index show negative long-run relationships with the SET Index. Furthermore, in non-equilibrium situations, the error correction mechanism suggests that the consumer price index, industrial production index and money supply each contribute in some way to restore equilibrium. In addition, using Toda and Yamamoto’s augmented Granger causality test, we identify a bi-causal relationship between industrial production and money supply and unilateral causal relationships between CPI and IR, IP and CPI, MS and CPI, and IP and SETI, indicating that all of these variables are sensitive to Thai stock market movements. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.

Capital mobility and macroeconomic volatility: evidence from Greece

OpenAIRE

Anastasios, Pappas

2010-01-01

This paper focuses on the impact of full capital account liberalization on macroeconomic volatility in Greece. According to the standard neoclassical model, such liberalization is to be desired because, among other advantages, it may reduce macroeconomic volatility. The link between macroeconomic volatility and capital account openness in the Greek economy is investigated by applying a simple three-month rolling standard deviation of real GDP growth and real final (total) consumption growth c...

Economic opportunities and challenges posed by China for Mexico and Central America

OpenAIRE

Dussel Peters, Enrique

2005-01-01

"This study offers a basis for understanding China's performance from a Latin American perspective, and stressing the massive economic opportunities and challenges, and particularly for Central America and Mexico. Moreover, the document assesses in detail the macroeconomic, trade and employment policy and institutional changes in China and its potential effects in Central America and Mexico. These effects are analyzed in the Chinese, Central American, Mexican and US market in general, but als...

Managing Macroeconomic Risks by Using Statistical Simulation

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Merkaš Zvonko

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes the possibilities of using statistical simulation in the macroeconomic risks measurement. At the level of the whole world, macroeconomic risks are, due to the excessive imbalance, significantly increased. Using analytical statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation, the authors interpret the collected data sets, compare and analyze them in order to mitigate potential risks. The empirical part of the study is a qualitative case study that uses statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation for managing macroeconomic risks, which is the central theme of this work. Application of statistical simulation is necessary because the system, for which it is necessary to specify the model, is too complex for an analytical approach. The objective of the paper is to point out the previous need for consideration of significant macroeconomic risks, particularly in terms of the number of the unemployed in the society, the movement of gross domestic product and the country’s credit rating, and the use of data previously processed by statistical methods, through statistical simulation, to analyze the existing model of managing the macroeconomic risks and suggest elements for a management model development that will allow, with the lowest possible probability and consequences, the emergence of the recent macroeconomic risks. The stochastic characteristics of the system, defined by random variables as input values defined by probability distributions, require the performance of a large number of iterations on which to record the output of the model and calculate the mathematical expectations. The paper expounds the basic procedures and techniques of discrete statistical simulation applied to systems that can be characterized by a number of events which represent a set of circumstances that have caused a change in the system’s state and the possibility of its application in the field of assessment of macroeconomic risks. The method has no

Assessment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables

Science.gov (United States)

de Senna, Viviane; Souza, Adriano Mendonça

2016-11-01

Since the 1988 Federal Constitution social assistance has become a duty of the State and a right to everyone, guaranteeing the population a dignified life. To ensure these rights federal government has created programs that can supply the main needs of people in extreme poverty. Among the programs that provide social assistance to the population, the best known are the ;Bolsa Família; Program - PBF and the Continuous Cash Benefit - Continuous Cash Benefit - BPC. This research's main purpose is to analyze the relationship between the main macroeconomic variables and the Federal government spending on social welfare policy in the period from January 2004 to August 2014. The used methodologies are the Vector auto regression model - VAR and Error Correction Vector - VEC. The conclusion, was that there is a meaningful relationship between macroeconomic variables and social assistance programs. This indicates that if the government takes a more abrupt resolution in changing the existing programs it will result in fluctuations in the main macroeconomic variables interfering with the stability of Brazilian domestic economy up to twelve months.

Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model

Science.gov (United States)

David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.

2013-10-01

In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.

Macro-economic Impact Study for Bio-based Malaysia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijl, van H.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Dijk, van M.; Powell, J.P.; Tabeau, A.A.

2012-01-01

This Macro-economic Impact Study (MES) provides quantitative insights into the macro-economic effects of introducing green, palmbased alternatives for electricity, fuels, chemicals and materials industries in Malaysia between now and 2030.

Private consumption-savings behavior and macroeconomic imbalances

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Castro Campos, M.

2016-01-01

Between the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1991 and 2007 many of the existing macroeconomic theories were applied to support the claim that the euro area was an optimal currency union and to argue that increasing macroeconomic imbalances were a logical part of the financial integration process.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE MACROECONOMIC STABILISATION PENTAGON IN ROMANIA, CZECH REPUBLIC AND HUNGARY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ionita Rodica Oana

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to achieve the pentagon analysis of macroeconomic stabilization in Romania, Czech Republic and Hungary in the period 2000 to 2013. It is a comparative analysis of the countries above mentioned in terms of the five key targets of economic policy, aiming the increasing, dynamic balance of each economy: economic growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, the budget deficit as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, the current account deficit of the balance of payments as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. The main objective of each economy which passes from planned to market economy should be to cease the economic decline, followed by the elimination of internal and external imbalances and only after that it should be followed by a continuous growth process. All the above mentioned indicators shall be represented on an ad hoc graduated scale. The period of research was chosen so as to obtain a view of the macroeconomic policies in transition from one period to another, in order to highlight the common as well as the main differences in the approach used for economy stabilization. Therefore I have computed the graphical analysis of macroeconomic stabilization pentagon for the three countries in the period 2000- 2013 to captures the dynamics of the economic policy mix. This benchmark tool shows the interdependence which exists between inflation and other important economic indicators. The events occurred in the period starting with 2007/2008 have raised the interest of economics researchers, highlighting the need for significant improvements in the surveillance of the economic and financial system. The global fragility generated concerns regarding the vulnerabilities and causes which led to the occurrence of such events, thus generating different measurement techniques. Despite all its advantages, this approach has a significant limitation consisting in the fact that it can only reveal a picture without surprising other

What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?

Science.gov (United States)

de Araujo, Pedro; O'Sullivan, Roisin; Simpson, Nicole B.

2013-01-01

A lack of consensus remains on what should form the theoretical core of the undergraduate intermediate macroeconomic course. In determining how to deal with the Keynesian/classical divide, instructors must decide whether to follow the modern approach of building macroeconomic relationships from micro foundations, or to use the traditional approach…

Challenges for decommissioning policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riotte, H.

2007-01-01

In the coming years, OECD member countries will be increasingly faced with the need to make appropriate provisions, in terms of policy, finance and management, for all aspects of decommissioning. Decommissioning requires regulatory approval and oversight, the directions of which are guided by national policy. In several instances, governments have only recently begun to address their approaches to decommissioning policy and regulation in national legislation, and international overviews of such approaches, which may eventually lead to international harmonization, are only now beginning to emerge. In parallel, policy and regulation have been evolving and a broadened competence has developed in relevant regulatory authorities. The challenge lying ahead is to establish a framework that will allow for the growth of nuclear industrial activities in competitive, globalized markets, while maintaining and assuring the safety of decommissioning for the public and for workers. Within this context, institutional arrangements, stakeholder issues, costs and funding, waste management and policies for release from regulatory control, as well as the availability of technologies and skills, need to be reviewed. (author)

Budget, fiscal and monetary policy in Poland and demand for transport – forwarding – logistics industry services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryszard Rolbiecki

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Macroeconomic policy of a country does not always have an effect on the demand for transport. The lack of a clear relation between the nature of macroeconomic policy and changes in demand for transport services is a consequence of the overall complexity of the economic system. It can also be a result of the lack of consistency between budget and monetary policy. Macroeconomic policy as a tool to control global demand only indirectly affects the changes in demand for transport. Transport activity is in fact determined by changes in the real economy, which directly influence the increase or decrease in demand for transport services.

Another countryside? Policy options for land and agrarian reform in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

abel

The focus on South Africa's land and agrarian policies is relevant at a time ... be coordinated at various policy levels, including macroeconomic policy, trade policy, agricultural policy and local economic development and planning for land.

Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors. A view from the EU ETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien

2009-01-01

This article examines the empirical relationship between the returns on carbon futures - a new class of commodity assets traded since 2005 on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) - and changes in macroeconomic conditions. By using variables which possess forecast power for equity and commodity returns, we document that carbon futures returns may be weakly forecast on the basis of two variables from the stock and bond markets, i.e. equity dividend yields and the 'junk bond' premium. Our results also suggest that the forecast abilities of two variables related to interest rates variation and economic trends on global commodity markets, respectively the U.S. Treasury bill yields and the excess return on the Reuters/CRB Index, are not robust on the carbon market. This latter result reinforces the belief that the EU ETS is currently operating as a very specific commodity market, with distinct fundamentals linked to allowance supply and power demand. The sensitivity of carbon futures to macroeconomic influences is carefully identified following a sub-sample decomposition before and after August 2007, which attempts to take into account the potential impact of the 'credit crunch' crisis. Collectively, these results challenge the market observers' viewpoint that carbon futures prices are immediately correlated with changes in the macroeconomic environment, and rather suggest that the carbon market is only remotely connected to macroeconomic variables. The economic logic behind these results may be related to the fuel-switching behavior of power producers in influencing primarily carbon futures price changes. (author)

Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and problem drinking as captured by Google searches in the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Frijters, Paul; Johnston, David W; Lordan, Grace; Shields, Michael A

2013-05-01

There is considerable policy interest in the impact of macroeconomic conditions on health-related behaviours and outcomes. This paper sheds new light on this issue by exploring the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and an indicator of problem drinking derived from state-level data on alcoholism-related Google searches conducted in the US over the period 2004-2011. We find the current recessionary period coincided with an almost 20% increase in alcoholism-related searches. Controlling for state and time-effects, a 5% rise in unemployment is followed in the next 12 months by an approximate 15% increase in searches. The use of Internet searches to inform on health-related behaviours and outcomes is in its infancy; but we suggest that the data provides important real-time information for policy-makers and can help to overcome the under-reporting in surveys of sensitive information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

QMM – A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy. Version 2.0

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ólafsson, Tjörvi

This paper documents and describes Version 2.0 of the Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Central Bank of Iceland (QMM). QMM and the underlying quarterly database have been under construction since 2001 at the Research and Forecasting Division of the Economics Department at the Bank and was first...... implemented in the forecasting round for the Monetary Bulletin 2006/1 in March 2006. QMM is used by the Bank for forecasting and various policy simulations and therefore plays a key role as an organisational framework for viewing the medium-term future when formulating monetary policy at the Bank. This paper...

Macroeconomic predictions – Three essays on analysts' forecast quality

OpenAIRE

Orbe, Sebastian

2013-01-01

Macroeconomic expectation data are of great interest to different agents due to their importance as central input factors in various applications. To name but a few, politicians, capital market participants, as well as academics, incorporate these forecast data into their decision processes. Consequently, a sound understanding of the quality properties of macroeconomic forecast data, their quality determinants, as well as potential ways to improve macroeconomic predictions is desirable. ...

Understanding Financial Fluctuations and Their Relation to Macroeconomic Stability

OpenAIRE

Nora Guarata; Carolina Pagliacci

2017-01-01

This paper examines how financial fluctuations and macroeconomic stability interact in the case of Venezuela, acknowledging that financial conditions deteriorating the macroeconomic environment can arise with both good and bad macroeconomic performance. An empirical methodology is provided that constructs two indexes, which are fully interpretable and are constructed with a minimum set of assumptions applied to a large number of financial time series. Structural interpretation of indexes is p...

Presentation of the Three-ME model: Multi-sector macro-economic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynes, Frederic; Yeddir-Tamsamani, Yasser; Callonnec, Gael

2011-05-01

This paper presents the structure and the main properties of Three-ME. This new model of the French economy has been especially designed to evaluate the medium and long term impact of environmental and energy policies at the macro-economic and sector levels. To do so Three-ME combines two important features. Firstly, it has the main characteristics of neo-Keynesian models by assuming a slow adjustment of effective quantities and prices to their notional level. Compared to standard multi-sectors CGEM, this has the advantage to allow for the existence of under-optimum equilibriums such as the presence of involuntary unemployment. Secondly, production and consumption structures are represented with a generalized CES function which allows for the elasticity of substitution to differ between each couple of inputs or goods. This is an improvement compared to the standard approach that uses nested CES functions which has the disadvantage to impose a common elasticity of substitution between the goods located in two different nested structures. (authors)

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-09-01

Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The financial crisis and global health: the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) policy response.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruckert, Arne; Labonté, Ronald

2013-09-01

In this article, we interrogate the policy response of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the global financial crisis, and discuss the likely global health implications, especially in low-income countries. In doing so, we ask if the IMF has meaningfully loosened its fiscal deficit targets in light of the economic challenges posed by the financial crisis and adjusted its macro-economic policy advice to this new reality; or has the rhetoric of counter-cyclical spending failed to translate into additional fiscal space for IMF loan-recipient countries, with negative health consequences? To answer these questions, we assess several post-crisis IMF lending agreements with countries requiring financial assistance, and draw upon recent academic studies and civil society reports examining policy conditionalities still being prescribed by the IMF. We also reference recent studies examining the health impacts of these conditionalities. We demonstrate that while the IMF has been somewhat more flexible in its crisis response than in previous episodes of financial upheaval, there has been no meaningful rethinking in the application of dominant neoliberal macro-economic policies. After showing some flexibility in the initial crisis response, the IMF is pushing for excessive contraction in most low and middle-income countries. We conclude that there remains a wide gap between the rhetoric and the reality of the IMF's policy and programming advice, with negative implications for global health.

Macroeconomic regime and labor market: the Argentine experience of the past two decades

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Luis Beccaria

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This document analyzes the interactions between macroeconomic regimes, employment generation and the dynamics of labor incomes in Argentina under two different macroeconomic regimes: the currency board regime of the 1990s and the high real exchange rate regime that followed. The former, characterized by a strong currency overvaluation, had a negative impact on economic activity and the labor market. However, the maintenance of a competitive real exchange rate does not by itself guarantee the sustained positive performance of the labor market, as it became evident in Argentina during the 2000s. Although the sizable depreciation of the peso –together with a positive international context- favored the expansion of output and employment, the initial concern of maintaining the real exchange rate at a competitive level was not continued with policies aimed to counteract the appreciation trend that appeared a few years after the implementation of the new regime.

The dynamic relationship between Bursa Malaysia composite index and macroeconomic variables

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Rose, Farid Zamani Che; Rahman, Rosmanjawati Abd.

2017-08-01

This study investigates and analyzes the long run and short run relationships between Bursa Malaysia Composite index (KLCI) and nine macroeconomic variables in a VAR/VECM framework. After regression analysis seven out the nine macroeconomic variables are chosen for further analysis. The use of Johansen-Juselius Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique indicate that there are long run relationships between the seven macroeconomic variables and KLCI. Meanwhile, Granger causality test shows that bidirectional relationship between KLCI and oil price. Furthermore, after 12 months the shock on KLCI are explained by innovations of the seven macroeconomic variables. This indicate the close relationship between macroeconomic variables and KLCI.

Next Generation Innovation Policy and Grand Challenges

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuhlmann, Stefan; Rip, Arie

2018-01-01

The paper explores transformative ways to address Grand Challenges, while locating them in a broader diagnosis of ongoing changes. Coping with Grand Challenges is a challenge in its own right, for policy as well as for science, technology, and innovation actors. The paper presents building blocks

Complexity and Hopf Bifurcation Analysis on a Kind of Fractional-Order IS-LM Macroeconomic System

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Junhai; Ren, Wenbo

On the basis of our previous research, we deepen and complete a kind of macroeconomics IS-LM model with fractional-order calculus theory, which is a good reflection on the memory characteristics of economic variables, we also focus on the influence of the variables on the real system, and improve the analysis capabilities of the traditional economic models to suit the actual macroeconomic environment. The conditions of Hopf bifurcation in fractional-order system models are briefly demonstrated, and the fractional order when Hopf bifurcation occurs is calculated, showing the inherent complex dynamic characteristics of the system. With numerical simulation, bifurcation, strange attractor, limit cycle, waveform and other complex dynamic characteristics are given; and the order condition is obtained with respect to time. We find that the system order has an important influence on the running state of the system. The system has a periodic motion when the order meets the conditions of Hopf bifurcation; the fractional-order system gradually stabilizes with the change of the order and parameters while the corresponding integer-order system diverges. This study has certain significance to policy-making about macroeconomic regulation and control.

Effects of macroeconomic conditions on health in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Sousa, Tanara Rosângela Vieira de

2010-04-01

To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenner's hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

Demand, credit and macroeconomic dynamics: A microsimulation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijers, H.H.M.; Nomaler, Z.O.; Verspagen, B.

2014-01-01

We develop a microsimulation model for the macroeconomic business cycle. Our model is based on three main ideas: (i) we want to specify how macroeconomic coordination is achieved without a dominating influence of price mechanisms, (ii) we want to incorporate the stock-flow-consistent approach that

Credibility of Policy Announcements Under Asymmetric Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Michael

1999-01-01

In a simple macro-economic model, where the monetary authorities process superior information about a real shocks, the scope for an active stabilization policy is shown to depend on the credibility of the policy maker. Lack of credibility increases the need for an active stabilization policy...

PHENOMENA AND BASIC MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR MEASUREMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PAULINA CATANA

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Macroeconomics is a separate discipline of the Economy that studies and analyzes the behaviour of economic aggregates and significant average, such as price level, national income, national income potential, the gap GDP, employment and unemployment of labour, investment and export of the whole economy. We can accuse to Macroeconomics that it deals also with the average price of all goods and services, not the prices of certain products. These aggregates result from economic behaviour of certain groups (governments, companies, consumers in the course of their activities on different markets. But why does it need Macroeconomics? Experts say that we need this separate discipline because there are certain forces that affect the broader economy globally, which can not be understood only by analyzing individual economic phenomena, individual products or markets.

On capital flows and macroeconomic performance: Evidence before and after the financial crisis in Turkey

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Magda Kandil

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The paper sheds light on the Turkish experience of capital account liberalization and its effect on key macroeconomic variables, using quarterly data in a multivariate VAR model. We also take into consideration the crisis breakpoint in 2001 and estimate the effect of shocks attributed to capital flows, using quarterly data during the sub-periods 1989:01–2001:01 and 2001:02–2009:03. The findings indicate that capital flows have varying effects on the Turkish economy before and after the crisis in 2001 and the evidence supports significant effects of liberalizing financial flows on macroeconomic performance, especially during the post-crisis period (2001:02–2009:03. Moreover, this latter period exhibited evidence of sterilization policy that has helped mopping up excess liquidity and containing inflationary pressures. These factors seem to signal deliberate efforts by the Central Bank of Turkey to stem the risk of appreciation of the real exchange rate and preserve export competitiveness during periods of high financial inflows, a trend that has been reversed recently by the surge in outflows and currency depreciation in many emerging markets in anticipation of imminent normalization of monetary policy in the United States.

Taxing CO2 and subsidising biomass: Analysed in a macroeconomic and sectoral model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

2000-01-01

This paper analyses the combination of taxes and subsidies as an instrument to enable a reduction in CO2 emission. The objective of the study is to compare recycling of a CO2 tax revenue as a subsidy for biomass use as opposed to traditional recycling such as reduced income or corporate taxation....... A model of Denmark's energy supply sector is used to analyse the e€ect of a CO2 tax combined with using the tax revenue for biomass subsidies. The energy supply model is linked to a macroeconomic model such that the macroeconomic consequences of tax policies can be analysed along with the consequences...... for speci®c sectors such as agriculture. Electricity and heat are produced at heat and power plants utilising fuels which minimise total fuel cost, while the authorities regulate capacity expansion technologies. The e€ect of fuel taxes and subsidies on fuels is very sensitive to the fuel substitution...

Cosmetic surgery in times of recession: macroeconomics for plastic surgeons.

Science.gov (United States)

Krieger, Lloyd M

2002-10-01

Periods of economic downturn place special demands on the plastic surgeon whose practice involves a large amount of cosmetic surgery. When determining strategy during difficult economic times, it is useful to understand the macroeconomic background of these downturns and to draw lessons from businesses in other service industries. Business cycles and monetary policy determine the overall environment in which plastic surgery is practiced. Plastic surgeons can take both defensive and proactive steps to maintain their profits during recessions and to prepare for the inevitable upturn. Care should also be taken when selecting pricing strategy during economic slowdowns.

Macroeconomic effects of energy political and climate political measures of the years 1995 up to 2011; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte energie- und klimapolitischer Massnahmen der Jahre 1995 bis 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehr, Ulrike; Lutz, Christian; Ulrich, Philip [Gesellschaft fuer Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (GWS), Osnabrueck (Germany)

2012-10-15

Actually, the macroeconomic effects of the energy policy turnaround are discussed controversially. The Federal Government started a comprehensive monitoring process in order to accompany the energy policy turnaround. Currently it is too early for a model-supported ex-post acquisition of the effects of the resolutions of the Federal Government in 2010. Often the implementation of the measures began in 2011. Just now no complete results are available. Under this aspect, the authors of the contribution consider the macroeconomic aspects of the measures which were implemented in the areas energy efficiency, renewable energy sources as well as combined heat and power generation in the years between 1995 and 2011.

The intermediate performance of territories of priority socio-economic development in Russia in conditions of macroeconomic instability

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Beliakov Sergey

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Russian economy in recent years has faced the influence of a number of negative factors due to macroeconomic instability and increased foreign policy tensions. In these conditions the considerable constraints faced processes of socio-economic development of regions of the Russian Federation. In this article the authors attempt to analyze the key indicators of socio-economic development of the regions in which it was created and operate in the territories of priority socio-economic development. These territories are concentrated in the Far Eastern Federal District. The article identified, processed, and interpreted indicators, allowing to produce a conclusion on the interim effectiveness of the territories of priority socio-economic development in Russia in conditions of macroeconomic instability.

What Are the Relative Macroeconomic Merits and Environmental Impacts of Direct Job Creation and Basic Income Guarantees?

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Pavlina R. Tcherneva

2017-06-01

Full Text Available There is a body of literature that favors universal and unconditional public assurance policies over those that are targeted and means-tested. Two such proposals—the basic income proposal and job guarantees—are discussed here. The paper evaluates the impact of each program on macroeconomic stability, arguing that direct job creation has inherent stabilization features that are lacking in the basic income proposal. A discussion of modern finance and labor market dynamics renders the latter proposal inherently inflationary, and potentially stagflationary. After studying the macroeconomic viability of each program, the paper elaborates on their environmental merits. It is argued that the “green” consequences of the basic income proposal are likely to emerge, not from its modus operandi, but from the tax schemes that have been advanced for its financing. By contrast, the job guarantee proposal can serve as an institutional vehicle for achieving various environmental goals by explicitly targeting environmental rehabilitation, conservation, and sustainability. Finally, in the hope of consensus building, the paper advances a joint policy proposal that is economically viable, environmentally friendly, and socially just.

Macroeconomic Dimensions in the Clusterization Processes: Lithuanian Biomass Cluster Case

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Navickas Valentinas

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The Future production systems’ increasing significance will impose work, which maintains not a competitive, but a collaboration basis, with concentrated resources and expertise, which can help to reach the general purpose. One form of collaboration among medium-size business organizations is work in clusters. Clusterization as a phenomenon has been known from quite a long time, but it offers simple benefits to researches at micro and medium levels. The clusterization process evaluation in macroeconomic dimensions has been comparatively little investigated. Thereby, in this article, the clusterization processes is analysed by concentrating our attention on macroeconomic factor researches. The authors analyse clusterization’s influence on country’s macroeconomic growth; they apply a structure research methodology for clusterization’s macroeconomic influence evaluation and propose that clusterization processes benefit macroeconomic analysis. The theoretical model of clusterization processes was validated by referring to a biomass cluster case. Because biomass cluster case is a new phenomenon, currently there are no other scientific approaches to them. The authors’ accomplished researches show that clusterization allows the achievement of a large positive slip in macroeconomics, which proves to lead to a high value added to creation, a faster country economic growth, and social situation amelioration.

Money and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

OpenAIRE

Seth Carpenter; Selva Demiralp

2009-01-01

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy has received extensive treatment in the macroeconomic literature. Most models currently used for macroeconomic analysis exclude money or else model money demand as entirely endogenous. Nevertheless, academic research and many textbooks continue to use the money multiplier concept in discussions of money. We explore the institutional structure of the transmission mechanism beginning with open market operations through to money and loans to document...

Income Inequalities, Productive Structure and Macroeconomic Dynamics. A Regional Approach to the Russian Case

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Julien Vercueil

2016-07-01

Full Text Available During the past decades, sustained economic growth in emerging countries (and among them, BRICS countries has attracted much attention in the western world. Multinational companies have been lured by the growing purchasing power of a significant part of the population, often presented as the “promised land” of consumer spending in durable goods, high tech services and fashion products. Of course, increasing incomes imply also significant socio-economic changes within these countries as well. A growing number of studies have been carried in order to track the evolution of income distribution in BRICS countries, and the formation and composition of a social group usually called “middle class” in western countries (Kharas (2010, SIEMS (2010, Levada (2012, Ernst and Young (2013, Kochhar R., Oates R. (2015. In this paper we try to assess the impact of recent macroeconomic fluctuations on Russian households income levels. We analyse the Russian trajectory in three different ways. First, we compare the evolution of the “middle class” in Russia with other (BRIC and western countries, using the wealthbased definition of this group proposed in the Global Wealth Report (Crédit Suisse Research Institute, 2015. Second, we go deeper into the Russian case in order to show how regional disparities regarding incomes distribution can be interpreted, considering the country’s recent macroeconomic trajectory. For this purpose, we build a productive typology of the Russian regions and study the link between each type and the level of income inequalities, using the varying structures in sources of household’s incomes as a possible explanation of regional variations. We conclude by an assessment of the remaining challenges for incomes policy in Russia

The Russian Landing Rate, Central Bank’s Policy Related Rate and Intermediation Premium

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Chu V. Nguyen

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This paper illustrates asymmetries in the Russian intermediation premium as measured by the spread between the commercial lending rate and the Central Bank’s policy related rate. Empirical results have shown that the Russian intermediation premium adjusts to the threshold faster when the Central Bank’s policy related rates increase relative to lending rates as opposed to when the Central Bank’s policy related rates move in the opposite direction. The findings of this paper suggest that during the period when the Russian Federation faced formidable challenges from a sharp decline in oil prices and reduced access to international capital markets due to Western sanctions, the Central Bank of Russia was not effective in utilizing countercyclical monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic objectives and commercial banks exhibited predatory pricing behavior.

Slowly, we are Growing together – European Economic Policy and Statistics

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Aurel Schubert

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In the last 20 years statistical data has become vastly more important for economic policy in Europe. Where as economic statistics once played a role in relatively marginal areas of European policy, the establishment of the macroeconomic convergence criteria for joining Economic and Monetary Union in the Maastricht Treaty in 1992–1993 sparked a quantum leap. Questions of comparability and harmonisation suddenly be- came increasingly relevant. The Stability and Growth Pact then made the calculation of the budget deficit and government debt even more important, including the measurement of GDP as denominator for the respective ratios. With the outbreak of the second Greek crisis in 2009–10 and the flaws that emerged in the quality of Greek economic statistics, statistical questions were suddenly at the centre of international media and political interest. At the same time the financial and economic crisis brought to the fore severe economic imbalances, both between European countries and within European countries. In order to prevent similar imbalances in the future, the EU has developed and adopted the "macroeconomic imbalance procedure", in which currently eleven macroeconomic indicators are used for on-going surveillance of countries ("alert mechanism". Thus more economic statistics have gained an important political function, particularly since sanctions can even be imposed on the basis of them. In parallel with this, the new European Supervisory Authorities use "dashboards" i.e. a range of statistics that are regularly watched and are intended to function as early warning indicators. The paper takes a look at this move towards more "evidence-based policy making" and its implications for European statistics and statisticians and discus ses the related challenges, paying particular attention to the role of the European Central Bank and its specific data needs.

Macroeconomic conditions and opioid abuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Alex; Ruhm, Christopher J; Simon, Kosali

2017-12-01

We examine how deaths and emergency department (ED) visits related to use of opioid analgesics (opioids) and other drugs vary with macroeconomic conditions. As the county unemployment rate increases by one percentage point, the opioid death rate per 100,000 rises by 0.19 (3.6%) and the opioid overdose ED visit rate per 100,000 increases by 0.95 (7.0%). Macroeconomic shocks also increase the overall drug death rate, but this increase is driven by rising opioid deaths. Our findings hold when performing a state-level analysis, rather than county-level; are primarily driven by adverse events among whites; and are stable across time periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Redistribution, recognition, power: Austerity or an alternative Kaleckian feminist macroeconomic model in the EU?

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Gabriella Paulì

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is twofold. The first is to highlight the regressive impacts on gender equality in Europe of the EU’s macroeconomic model and governance, despite the claims in official EU do­cuments that the intention is to close the gender gap, with reference to research into gender and gender-blind austerity policies and feminist commentary on the social content of macroeconomic policies. The second aim is to assess these processes from both a political-philosophical and an economic perspective. From a political-philosophical perspective this paper aims to update Nancy Fraser’s focus on “redistribu­tion/recognition”, in order to show how the austerity paradigm – by increasing economic disadvantages for women – prevents women’s equal participation in the public sphere and fosters political practices of “institu­tio­na­lized misrecognition”. The review of Fraser’s analytical perspective serves to highlight the com­­plici­ty between economic injustice and maldistribution (exploitation, female economic marginaliza­tion, insecurity, female unemployment and cultural injustice and misrecognition, and to focus attention on the fundamental need for gender-aware distributional policies. In a Feminist-Post-Keynesian/Kaleckian eco­no­­mic paradigm, new research emphasizes the economic relevance of gender-aware redistribution, star­ting from a range of hypotheses. At the same time, in this theoretical perspective, the inherently confron­tational nature of gender-aware distribution policies is shown. The interdisciplinary approach propo­sed in this paper provides an analytical framework for debating women’s political claims in Europe

Complementary system perspectives in ecological macroeconomics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røpke, Inge

2016-01-01

Globally, societies are facing a number of interrelated environmental, economic and social crises. This paper is intended to contribute to the development of an ecological macroeconomics that addresses these multiple crises in combination. Insights from different research communities will be incl......Globally, societies are facing a number of interrelated environmental, economic and social crises. This paper is intended to contribute to the development of an ecological macroeconomics that addresses these multiple crises in combination. Insights from different research communities...... will be included in this effort. Taking an ecological economic understanding of sustainability as the point of departure, and inspired by systems thinking, it is discussed which economic sub-systems should be in focus for sustainability transitions, and whether relevant guides for sustainability can be formulated...... for these systems. In particular, the focus is on systems that are decisive for resource consumption and pollution although their influence on these is indirect. A simple typology of sub-systems is suggested and applied in relation to an example that highlights the importance of the interplay between macroeconomic...

Empirical analysis of the environmental and energy policies in some developing countries using widely employed macroeconomic indicators: the cases of Brazil, China and India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Focacci, Antonio

2005-01-01

This paper proposes an empirical analysis concerning the environmental and energy policies of some important developing countries (Brazil, China and India) today present in the international scenario with very different features than in the past. The research is carried out using two of the most important macroeconomic indicators several times proposed in the field of policy analysis: emission-intensity ratio and energy-intensity ratio. Moreover, the emission-intensity ratio is used in order to verify the empirical existence of the so-called 'Environmental Kuznets Curve' for the three countries. For what concerns this last point, final results do not correspond closely to the theoretical strict formulations hypothesised in the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve model. This paper follows (completing and concluding) the previous one carried out by the same author for some industrialised countries. After a brief, but ineluctable, premise considering the theoretical basic assumptions to define the question and regarding general statements, the specific cases are analysed. Main findings show that resulting trends in these developing countries are different and, furthermore, they differ from those already observed in industrialised ones. (Author)

Empirical analysis of the environmental and energy policies in some developing countries using widely employed macroeconomic indicators: the cases of Brazil, China and India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Focacci, Antonio [Bologna Univ., Business and Management Dept., Bologna (Italy)

2005-03-01

This paper proposes an empirical analysis concerning the environmental and energy policies of some important developing countries (Brazil, China and India) today present in the international scenario with very different features than in the past. The research is carried out using two of the most important macroeconomic indicators several times proposed in the field of policy analysis: emission-intensity ratio and energy-intensity ratio. Moreover, the emission-intensity ratio is used in order to verify the empirical existence of the so-called 'Environmental Kuznets Curve' for the three countries. For what concerns this last point, final results do not correspond closely to the theoretical strict formulations hypothesised in the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve model. This paper follows (completing and concluding) the previous one carried out by the same author for some industrialised countries. After a brief, but ineluctable, premise considering the theoretical basic assumptions to define the question and regarding general statements, the specific cases are analysed. Main findings show that resulting trends in these developing countries are different and, furthermore, they differ from those already observed in industrialised ones. (Author)

Emergent Macroeconomics An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations

CERN Document Server

Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro; Giulioni, Gianfranco; Palestrini, Antonio

2008-01-01

This book contributes substantively to the current state-of-the-art of macroeconomics by providing a method for building models in which business cycles and economic growth emerge from the interactions of a large number of heterogeneous agents. Drawing from recent advances in agent-based computational modeling, the authors show how insights from dispersed fields like the microeconomics of capital market imperfections, industrial dynamics and the theory of stochastic processes can be fruitfully combined to improve our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. This book should be a valuable resource for all researchers interested in analyzing macroeconomic issues without recurring to a fictitious representative agent.

Macroeconomic impact of HIV: the need for better modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Erik; Haacker, Markus; Ventelou, Bruno; Greener, Robert

2010-05-01

To critically evaluate the recent literature on macroeconomic repercussions of the HIV pandemic and the response to it. The review focuses on the impacts of HIV through both its health consequences and its impact on the accumulation of human capital. So far, most studies have found a moderate impact of the HIV epidemic on macroeconomic growth. However, recent studies tend to emphasize the fact that HIV undermines human capital and implies a long-term detriment for economic development. Availability of data from Demographic and Health Surveys offers opportunities for better understanding the relationship between the HIV epidemic and economic growth through pathways linking its microeconomic and macroeconomic impacts. The macroeconomic impact of HIV observed so far appears moderate. Our analysis of recent literature, however, points out three important issues that may have been previously underestimated. First, the most important effects may occur in the longer run, through changes in the accumulation of human capital. Second, aggregate impact often masks an unequal impact among different economic groups. Third, the empirical evidence on which current macroeconomic models are based remains weak, in particular in the way it takes into account responses to HIV at the households' level. Microsimulation models and the recently increasing availability of robust datasets at households' level offer promising opportunities to address these issues.

A Bayesian Approach for the Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamic in Case of Emerging Countries-Monetary and Fiscal Policy Model

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Georgiana-Alina Ionita

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The paper proposes the analysis of the main drivers of the economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe, in three emerging countries: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, with a development stage similar with that of Romania. Given the vulnerabilities of the Central and Eastern Europe region at the beginning and during the recent global economic and financial crisis, there is an increased interest to identify the models that can describe the principalcharacteristics of the Central and Eastern Europe macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product, investment, wages and salaries, inflation, hours worked, consumption and themonetary variable- interest rate. Moreover, another scope is to analyze the frictions that describe the evolution of the seven data series, as the stochastic dynamic of the macroeconomic model is driven by orthogonal structural shocks.

Interest rate transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the selected EMU candidate countries

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Mirdala Rajmund

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The stable macroeconomic environment, as one of the primary objectives of the Visegrad countries in the 1990s, was partially supported by the exchange rate policy. Fixed exchange rate systems within gradually widen bands (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic and crawling peg system (Hungary, Poland were replaced by the managed floating in the Czech Republic (May 1997, Poland (April 2000, Slovak Republic (October 1998 and fixed exchange rate to euro in Hungary (January 2000 with broad band (October 2001. Higher macroeconomic and banking sector stability allowed countries from the Visegrad group to implement the monetary policy strategy based on the interest rate transmission mechanism. Continuous harmonization of the monetary policy framework (with the monetary policy of the ECB and the increasing sensitivity of the economy agents to the interest rates changes allowed the central banks from the Visegrad countries to implement monetary policy strategy based on the key interest rates determination. In the paper we analyze the impact of the central banks' monetary policy in the Visegrad countries on the selected macroeconomic variables in the period 1999-2008 implementing SVAR (structural vector autoregression approach. We expect that higher sensitivity of domestic variables to interest rates shocks can be interpreted as a convergence of monetary policies in candidate countries towards the ECB's monetary policy.

The new economic governance in the EU Member States. Macroeconomic results and statistical correlations for Romania

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Mirela Cristea

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In the current economic context of economic and financial crisis, many European countries are facing with fundamental issues and trends that are unsustainable on the long term. In these circumstances, we have developed the present study which analyzes the EU strategies for establishing a new economic governance for all Member States. We present the perspective of Romania’s macroeconomic stability in the European context, in its process for accession to the EMU, through the nominal and real convergence criteria. On this background, we make a statistical study on the direction of causality relation between GDP and the main factors of the influence at the macroeconomic level. Reviving growth, as predicted by Romanian institutions, would produce major benefits to act extensively through coherent policies to balance the money market, the labor market and the fiscal framework

Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Tilley, Luke A.

In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

Environmental Policy of Serbia and Challenges of Accession to Europe

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Darko Nadić

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This article analyzes the environmental policy of the Republic of Serbia within the context of accession conditions to the European Union. The main challenges of environmental integration of the environmental policies of Serbia are: economic challenges, the sustainable development challenge, administrative challenges, democratic deficiency challenges, and political challenges. These challenges, while flaws of the environmental policy in Serbia, are no different than the challenges faced by other Central Eastern European countries during the accession process. However, the influence of the global economic crisis, the constant political crisis and unclear definition of the political scene in Serbia, an incomplete vision of environmental education, as well as too much "green" marketing activities and a lack of true law implementation, are additional factors that make the process of environmental accession of Serbia to the EU even more difficult. Therefore, the harmonization of the Serbian environmental legal frame with the European one must be followed by the harmonization of actions of political institutions, social groups and individual citizens, and the overall democratization of society.

Research in the service of modern macroeconomic analysis

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Pantelić Svetlana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims, American professors, conducted independent scientific researches back in the 1970s and 1980s, yet the explanation of the 2011 Nobel Prize Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy states that the methods they developed are among the crucial tools in today's macroeconomic analysis. More precisely, they were awarded for their empirical research on cause and effect in macroeconomics.

Importance of the macroeconomic variables for variance prediction: A GARCH-MIDAS approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgharian, Hossein; Hou, Ai Jun; Javed, Farrukh

2013-01-01

This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long-term compone......This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the return volatility of the US stock market. We apply the GARCH-MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) model to examine whether information contained in macroeconomic variables can help to predict short-term and long...

Why Models Matter: The Making and Unmaking of Governability in Macroeconomic Discourse

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Benjamin Braun

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Like other branches of economic theory, macroeconomics has the potential not only to represent but also to perform the economy. This performative potential is greatest when a ‘governability paradigm’ is established within macroeconomic discourse – that is, when theory has produced both a sense of understanding and practical control over the economy. In such periods, macroeconomic models become embedded in the ideational infrastructure of the economy, making possible both the interpretation of past data and the formation of expectations regarding the future. Viewing macroeconomics as a quest for governability, this article traces the formation of two distinct governability paradigms: the neoclassical synthesis paradigm of the post-war era, and the new neoclassical synthesis paradigm of the 1990s and 2000s. It shows how in both cases macroeconomic discourse went through three phases: first, the formulation of a basic vision of the economy; second, the formalisation and operationalisation of this vision; and third, the development of methods to measure, estimate, and predict associated variables. These shifts in macroeconomics and its models matter because the establishment of a governability paradigm tends to produce overconfidence not only among economists and policymakers, but also among market actors. Macroeconomic discourse itself therefore contributes to the cycles of boom and bust in modern capitalist economies.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination

OpenAIRE

Hanif, Muhammad N.; Arby, Muhammad Farooq

2003-01-01

Macroeconomic policies are meant to achieve non-inflationary, stable growth. There are two major groups of policy instruments to achieve the purpose; one is related to monetary conditions and the other to fiscal conditions. Monetary instruments are employed by the central bank and fiscal instruments are employed by ministry of finance. The objectives and implications of policy measures taken by the two institutions often conflict with each other and thus call for policy coordination for effec...

Monetary Policy and Price Stability in Nigeria

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Idoko Ahmed Itodo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Irregular price changes, with its economic consequences of market risks and uncertainties, have been one of the most challenging problems facing the Nigerian economy. Successive financial sector reforms, which seek to enhance the role of monetary policy instruments in macroeconomic management, in view of the theoretical and empirical link between monetary policy and general price level, have been implemented with less than satisfactory results. This paper examines the monetary policy in stabilizing price level in Nigeria. We employ the Vector Autoregressive (VAR model, with in-built differencing to take care of unit root in these time series data, to capture this relationship. From our findings, we discover that, money supply has no significant relationship with price level in Nigeria. This, we believe, may be due to the influence of the large informal financial sector which controls a very significant fraction of money in circulation. Thus, policy reforms that would curb the influence of the informal financial sector should be implemented in order to allow the central monetary authority to work better, and enhance the role of monetary management in Nigeria.

Relationship between macroeconomic aggregates and bank performance

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Mitrović Ranka

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is relations between some macroeconomic aggregates and performance of banks. This paper show analysis of trends in gross domestic product, exchange rates, interest rates, inflation load, developments in the balance of payments. On the business side, performance is achieved insight into the liquidity, capital adequacy, and the amount of non-performable loans. The aim of the research is to refute or confirm the interconnectedness of movement values of macroeconomic aggregates and bank performance. The analysis confirmed the association of two set variables. The negative value movements of macroeconomic aggregates directly or indirectly have an impact on the quality of performance of the banking sector. Therefore, it is necessary to define an adequate strategy of the economy, would not it safer to carry out the process of adapting to new developments in the market, such as the global financial crisis, the rise in unproductive enterprises, distrust customers etc.

RISK PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY

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Dalis Maria Draghici

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Tackling challenges in order to promote competitiveness in various economic sectors requires understanding and approaching the risk assessment as an essential factor that can anytime determine the availability of the mechanisms and resources needed for a sustainable future. Although a certain amount of risk has to be assumed, losses caused by specific events appear to be broader than gains. In order to ensure economic growth, it is challenging for governments to try to manage the exposure to losses, this being the reason why they play a key role in fundamental prediction and in finding the most suitable evaluation tools. Despite the struggle against global strains and political risks, uncertainty not only persists in association with the external environment, but it reached extremely exalted levels compared to recent history. The instability of the global environment is leading to a lot of economic decisions being put on pause. Uncertainty’s effects about a nation’s economic policies can often spread beyond the country’s borders, this being the reason why a possible deterioration of the macroeconomic equilibrium is expected to have a significant impact on the risk perception, with direct consequences upon the Romanian economy. The aim of this article is to outline not only the existing economic framework in Romania, but also its future development in a macroeconomic context driven by uncertainty.

Macroeconomic pressures and their implications for business development in Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuada, John

2011-01-01

The paper discusses the complex relationships between macroeconomic pressures, savings, investments and business development in Sub-Sahara African countries......The paper discusses the complex relationships between macroeconomic pressures, savings, investments and business development in Sub-Sahara African countries...

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY IN NIGERIA

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OSAZEE GODWIN OMOROKUNWA

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock price volatility and few macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate, GDP and interest rate. Annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2011 was used for this study. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH model was used in the empirical analysis. The findings of the study showed that stock prices in Nigeria are volatile. And that past information in the market have effect on stock price volatility in Nigeria. In addition, the study showed that interest rate and exchange have a weak effect on stock price volatility while inflation is the main determinant of stock price volatility in Nigeria. The authors recommend that inflation should be targeted as the main monetary policy aimed at directing the stock market.

Reconstructing Macroeconomics Based on Statistical Physics

Science.gov (United States)

Aoki, Masanao; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

We believe that time has come to integrate the new approach based on statistical physics or econophysics into macroeconomics. Toward this goal, there must be more dialogues between physicists and economists. In this paper, we argue that there is no reason why the methods of statistical physics so successful in many fields of natural sciences cannot be usefully applied to macroeconomics that is meant to analyze the macroeconomy comprising a large number of economic agents. It is, in fact, weird to regard the macroeconomy as a homothetic enlargement of the representative micro agent. We trust the bright future of the new approach to macroeconomies based on statistical physics.

Marginal Propensity to Consume in Hungary: The long-term versus Short-term Challenges to Policy Makers

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Keith Write

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study uses Hungarian quarterly data from the International Monetary Fund to estimate a distributed lag model whose coefficients allow derivation of the short-run and long-run marginal propensities to consume.  MPCs are main factors determining the consumption, investment, government spending, and export and import multipliers of the economy.  Hungary's economy has stagnated and its policy makers are exploring new ways to manage its economy.  Our model reveals that the numerical value of Hungarian short-run marginal propensity to consume (MPC is 0.4081181655 and the long-run MPC is 0.9458619.  These results are consistent with the corresponding figures in emerging and advanced economies.  These derived MPCs suggest that Hungarian economic policy makers should use fiscal instruments to bring these macroeconomic variables back to their long-term trend effectively

OPTIMIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN MACROECONOMIC POLICY FOR 2016-2020

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Gilmundinov V. M.

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the methodological issues of economic policy elaboration and optimization of economic policy instruments’ parameters. Actuality of this research is provided by growing complexity of social and economic systems, important state role in their functioning as well as multi-targets of economic policy with limited number of instruments. Considering a big variety of internal and external restrictions of social and economic development of modern Russia it has wide range of applications. Extension of the dynamic econometric general equilibrium input-output model of the Russian economy with development of the sub-model of economic policy optimization is a key purpose of this study. The sub-model of economic policy optimization allows estimating impact of economic policy measures on target indicators as well as defining optimal values of their parameters. For this purpose, we extend Robert Mundell’s approach by considering dynamic optimization and wider range of economic policy targets and measures. Use of general equilibrium input-output model allows considering impact of economic policy on different aggregate markets and sectors. Approbation of suggested approach allows us to develop multi-variant forecast for the Russian economy for 2016-2020, define optimal values of monetary policy parameters and compare considered variants by values of social losses. The obtained results could be further used in theoretical as well as applied researches concerned with issues of economic policy elaboration and forecasting of social and economic development.

Policy challenges of increasing automation in driving

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Ata M. Khan

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The convergence of information and communication technologies (ICT with automotive technologies has already resulted in automation features in road vehicles and this trend is expected to continue in the future owing to consumer demand, dropping costs of components, and improved reliability. While the automation features that have taken place so far are mainly in the form of information and driver warning technologies (classified as level I pre-2010, future developments in the medium term (level II 2010–2025 are expected to exhibit connected cognitive vehicle features and encompass increasing degree of automation in the form of advanced driver assistance systems. Although autonomous vehicles have been developed for research purposes and are being tested in controlled driving missions, the autonomous driving case is only a long term (level III 2025+ scenario. This paper contributes knowledge on technological forecasts regarding automation, policy challenges for each level of technology development and application context, and the essential instrument of cost-effectiveness for policy analysis which enables policy decisions on the automation systems to be assessed in a consistent and balanced manner. The cost of a system per vehicle is viewed against its effectiveness in meeting policy objectives of improving safety, efficiency, mobility, convenience and reducing environmental effects. Example applications are provided that illustrate the contribution of the methodology in providing information for supporting policy decisions. Given the uncertainties in system costs as well as effectiveness, the tool for assessing policies for future generation features probabilistic and utility-theoretic analysis capability. The policy issues defined and the assessment framework enable the resolution of policy challenges while allowing worthy innovative automation in driving to enhance future road transportation.

Macroeconomic and social change and popular demand for redistribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jæger, Mads Meier

This paper tests the self-interest hypothesis arguing that changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect popular demand for redistribution. I analyze data from four waves of the European Social Survey and use a synthetic cohort design to generate pseudo panel data for socio......-demographic groups that are matched over time. I estimate fixed effect models and find that (1) changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect the demand for redistribution; (2) results are mostly consistent with the self-interest hypothesis claiming that agents demand more redistribution in economically hard...... times (and vice versa in good times); and (3) the effect of macroeconomic and social conditions on the demand for redistribution are highly non-linear....

Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kocenda, Evzen; Poghosyan, Tigran

2009-01-01

We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. We derive the observable macroeconomic factors-consumption and inflation-using the Stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange

Macroeconomic narratives in a world of crises

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Urhammer, Emil; Røpke, Inge

2013-01-01

Since the financial crisis in 2008, a series of publications on macroeconomic responses to the compound crises of the economy and the environment have emerged. Under labels such as green new deal, green growth and the great transition, attempts at offering coherent responses to the crises have been...... discourse theory and narrative analysis and investigates discourses by studying the narratives they produce. The study thus contributes to the long line of analyses on discourses on sustainable economy: empirically, by investigating and analysing a number of macroeconomic proposals for solving the system...

Interactive macroeconomics stochastic aggregate dynamics with heterogeneous and interacting agents

CERN Document Server

Di Guilmi, Corrado

2017-01-01

One of the major problems of macroeconomic theory is the way in which the people exchange goods in decentralized market economies. There are major disagreements among macroeconomists regarding tools to influence required outcomes. Since the mainstream efficient market theory fails to provide an internal coherent framework, there is a need for an alternative theory. The book provides an innovative approach for the analysis of agent based models, populated by the heterogeneous and interacting agents in the field of financial fragility. The text is divided in two parts; the first presents analytical developments of stochastic aggregation and macro-dynamics inference methods. The second part introduces macroeconomic models of financial fragility for complex systems populated by heterogeneous and interacting agents. The concepts of financial fragility and macroeconomic dynamics are explained in detail in separate chapters. The statistical physics approach is applied to explain theories of macroeconomic modelling a...

Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

2003-01-01

To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

Financial Regulation in an Agent Based Macroeconomic Model

OpenAIRE

Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Mauro, Gallegati

2013-01-01

Starting from the agent-based decentralized matching macroeconomic model proposed in Riccetti et al. (2012), we explore the effects of banking regulation on macroeconomic dynamics. In particular, we study the overall credit exposure and the lending concentration towards a single counterparty, finding that the portfolio composition seems to be more relevant than the overall exposure for banking stability, even if both features are very important. We show that a too tight regulation is dangerou...

Commodities and Switzerland: Development Policy Challenges and Policy Options

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Werner Thut

2013-09-01

Full Text Available EDITOR’S NOTEThis paper, written in December 2012, is a contribution to the ‘Policy Debate’ section of the International Development Policy. In this section, academics, policy makers and practitioners engage in a dialogue on global development challenges. Papers are copy-edited but not peer-reviewed. Instead, an initial thematic contribution is followed by critical comments and reactions from different stakeholders. This paper by Werner Thut is followed by reactions and analysis from a non-profit policy institute (Alexandra Gillies, Revenue Watch Institute, New York, ‘Crafting a Strategic Response to the Commodity-Development Conundrum’, a Southern scholar (Prof. Humberto Campodonico, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima ‘Going Beyond Transparency and Good Governance’ | ‘Más allá de la transparencia y una buena gobernanza’ and a representative of the trading sector (Stéphane Graber, Secretary General of Geneva Trading & Shipping Association – ‘Reassessing the Merchants’ Role in a Globalized Economy’.PAPER’S ABSTRACTSwitzerland is one of the world’s largest commodity trading hub. The author, senior policy adviser at the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC, reviews experiences and policy options related to commodity trading from a development policy perspective. While this sector has become of strategic importance to Switzerland’s economy, it also entails a number of risks. On the other hand, Swiss development cooperation efforts focus on several resource-rich countries, whose mineral and agricultural commodities are traded via Switzerland. How can Switzerland assist these countries to reap the benefits of their natural resource wealth? This paper looks at development policy aspects of commodity trading in relation to Swiss foreign and domestic policy. It examines ongoing policy debates in Switzerland and discusses development policy options.

Macroeconomic instability: its causes and consequences for the economy of Ukraine

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Natalia SKOROBOGATOVA

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the concepts of appearance and elimination of macroeconomic instability, and the Keynesian approach for overcoming issues in Ukraine’s macroeconomic instability. Based on the Ukraine Statistics Service and World Bank data, Ukraine's economy tendencies have been defined: the country has not reached the pre-crisis economic level. The article identifies the reasons of negative balance payments and budget deficit: a decrease in production value, negative trade balance, growth of foreign creditor’s debt, currency instability, an increase in budget spending. The dynamics of income and expenditure within Ukraine budget has been analyzed, and also the destructiveness of existing approaches for the main financial documents has been grounded. Considering Ukraine’s economic and political situation, the main causes of macroeconomic instability are systematized. Government-implemented approaches for overcoming the macroeconomic instability have been suggested. The article introduces an approach for minimizing the negative effects on businesses, based on the timely identification of macroeconomic risks in terms of internal and external management. The possible negative impacts in case the timely decisions are not implemented have been assessed.

Analysis Of Japans Economy Based On 2014 From Macroeconomics Prospects

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Dr Mohammad Rafiqul Islam

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Japan is the worlds third largest economy. But currently economic situations of Japan are not stable. It is not increasing as expected. Since 2013 it was world second largest economy but Japan loosed its placed to China in 2014 due to slow growth of important economic indicators. By using the basic Keynesian model we will provide a detailed analysis of the short and long run impacts of the changes for Japans real GDP rate of unemployment and inflation rate. We demonstrated a detailed use of the 45-degree diagram or the AD-IA model and other economic analysis of the macroeconomic principles that underlie the model and concepts. Finally we will recommend the government with a change in fiscal policy what based on the analysis by considering what might be achieved with a fiscal policy response and the extent to which any impact on the stock of public debt might be a consideration

The macroeconomics of targeting: the case of an enduring epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Clive; Gersbach, Hans

2009-01-01

What is the right balance among policy interventions in order to ensure economic growth over the long run when an epidemic causes heavy mortality among young adults? We argue that, in general, policies to combat the disease and promote education must be concentrated, in certain ways, at first on some subgroups of society. This concentration involves what we term the macroeconomics of targeting. The central comparison is then between programs under which supported families enjoy the benefits of spending on health and education simultaneously (DT), and those under which the benefits in these two domains are sequenced (ST). When levels of human capital are uniformly low at the outbreak, DT is superior to ST if the mortality rate exceeds some threshold value. Outside aid makes DT more attractive; but DT restricts support to fewer families initially and so increases inequality. A summary account of the empirical evidence is followed by an application of the framework to South Africa.

The Poisoned Chalice: Oil and Macroeconomics in Brazil (1967-2003)

Science.gov (United States)

Biasetto, Bruno Henz

This dissertation analyzes the development of the Brazilian oil industry and its impact on the economic development of Brazil from the beginning of the "Brazilian Miracle" (1968-1973) to the end of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso's second term as president (1995-2002). The dissertation explores the closely intertwined nature of Brazil's oil industry and its macroeconomic development, shedding new light on the history of Petrobras (the Brazilian state oil company), and on other key topics of Brazilian economic history, including the Debt Crisis of the 1980s and the role of neoliberalism in Brazil. The argument is that oil policy shaped the national economy and the Brazilian state in this period. Attention to the oil industry, and to Petrobras in particular, was crucial to the establishment of diplomatic and economic policy, and to conflict within the Brazilian state. Finally, this dissertation seeks to illuminate Brazil's place in the global oil industry and how that has shaped Brazil's global economic standing.

Healthcare Policy in Romania. Frameworks and Challenges

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Buţiu Călina Ana

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to review some of the healthcare policy issues of Romania and identify those challenges which may be addressed through social intervention. Based on statistical data, documents, reports and applicable laws one will review the health condition of Romanian population and the state of the national health system, and will examine the broad strategies and policies currently under the scrutiny of appropriate ministries. The findings of the study suggest looking at health policies also through the lens of social inclusion.

THE IMPACT OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES ON PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

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Loredana Ciurlău

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Fiscal policy is the main component of financial policy. Being a component of economic policy, taxation must lead to economic objectives. Maintaining equilibria macroeconomic cannot be blamed solely in charge of monetary policy, fiscal policy and that the revenue must have a role in support and to bear the load efforts to stabilise. Large deficits are dangerous for current account, because they are associated with a greater risk of producing an adjustment steep in the exchange rate and high volatility of exchange rate has major implications on the stability and macroeconomic monetary, in general. This means that countries should his election budgets so as to cope with growing demand from the private sector and to take necessary safeguard measures against potential crises, whereas the extent fiscal deficit contributes directly to the magnitude current account deficit.

The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

OpenAIRE

Caruso, Alberto

2016-01-01

This paper studies the effect of macroeconomic "news" (market now-cast errors related to the flow of data releases on macroeconomic fundamentals) on the daily USD/EUR exchange rate. I consider a large number of real-time macroeconomic announcements from both the US and the euro-zone, and the related market expectations as reported by Bloomberg. For the euro-zone I also study country level announcements for the four biggest economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). The results for the whole s...

Inflows and their Macroeconomic Impact in India a VAR Analysis

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Narayan Sethi

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The present study attempts to examine the effects of private foreign capital inflows (FINV on macroeconomic variables in India. The study also examines the trends and composition of capital inflows into India. Using the Vector Autoregression (VAR method, this paper specifically examines effects of private foreign capital inflows (FINV on macroeconomic variables in India. This study is based on the monthly data from 1995:04 to 2011:07 and incorporating the macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate (EXR, inflation, money supply (M3, export (EXPO, import (IMP, foreign exchange reserve (FOREX and economic growth (IIP as proxy of GDP. The important observations emerge from the VAR analysis which shows there is dynamic short and long equilibrium relationship between few macroeconomic variables like exchange rate (EXR, foreign exchange reserve (FOREX, index of industrial production (IIP and money supply (M3 with private foreign capital inflows (FINV during the study period from 1995:04 to 2011:07

Management of Internal and External Factors of Decisive Policies in Agriculture in Macroeconomic Crisis Conditions

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Vanghele Cristian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The management of internal and external factors directly influencing the decisions implemented by the managerial act at the macroeconomic analysis of the relations within this branch and sub-branches, of the disturbing factors with the implementation of some decisions to stop the phenomena of soil degradation and agricultural land and to preserve and develop their productive potential, a production surplus for ash consumption and ensuring a productive production for industrial consumption with the result of gaining added value and net profit as much as possible for the exploitation farms.

Fiscal shocks and the real exchange rate: evidence from an outpost of textbook open-economy macroeconomics

OpenAIRE

David Fielding

2014-01-01

Recent empirical research into the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks has generated a ‘puzzle’. Both Keynesian and Real Business Cycle models predict that a fiscal expansion will lead to a real exchange rate appreciation. However, in almost all the individual countries that have been studied, positive shocks to government spending cause the real exchange rate to depreciate. Recent theoretical work suggests that this unexpected result might reflect incomplete international financial...

Entropy, pricing and macroeconomics of pumped-storage systems

Science.gov (United States)

Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2014-05-01

We propose a pricing scheme for the enhancement of macroeconomic performance of pumped-storage systems, based on the statistical properties of both geophysical and economic variables. The main argument consists in the need of a context of economic values concerning the hub energy resource; defined as the resource that comprises the reference energy currency for all involved renewable energy sources (RES) and discounts all related uncertainty. In the case of pumped-storage systems the hub resource is the reservoir's water, as a benchmark for all connected intermittent RES. The uncertainty of all involved natural and economic processes is statistically quantifiable by entropy. It is the relation between the entropies of all involved RES that shapes the macroeconomic state of the integrated pumped-storage system. Consequently, there must be consideration on the entropy of wind, solar and precipitation patterns, as well as on the entropy of economic processes -such as demand preferences on either current energy use or storage for future availability. For pumped-storage macroeconomics, a price on the reservoir's capacity scarcity should also be imposed in order to shape a pricing field with upper and lower limits for the long-term stability of the pricing range and positive net energy benefits, which is the primary issue of the generalized deployment of pumped-storage technology. Keywords: Entropy, uncertainty, pricing, hub energy resource, RES, energy storage, capacity scarcity, macroeconomics

Evidence of Macroeconomic Policy Effects over Company-Sector Stock Returns

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Mara Madaleno

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Given that stock markets may act as an economy mirror, it is explored the sensitivity of company-sector-specific stock returns to macroeconomic news reflecting different economic environments for the UK, US, Germany, Japan and Australian markets between March 1993 and February 2013 using monthly data. Results seem to indicate that portfolio investors need to be aware that movements in the market index is the best predictor to forecast stock returns of individual companies and sectors in developed economies. Sentiment influences individual company’s returns of the utilities sector, even if these are considered of limited growth and stable earnings, for UK, USA and Australia, turning investor confidence a relevant variable to be included. Information increases about industrial production have no influence on company and sector stocks, thus not affecting investor’s decision in developed countries. As for Japan, results seem to indicate that the higher the need of oil imports of a country, the higher will be the positive impact of oil price changes over company returns. Finally, the riskless interest rate has no effect on sector stock returns independently of the country under analysis. For developed economies, we confirm the finding that stocks cannot be used as a hedge against inflation.

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions and Limitations: The Need ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Lwati: A Journal of Contemporary Research ... This 'divorce' of monetary and debt management functions calls for the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic ... Therefore an appropriate combination of monetary and fiscal policy mix is crucial for macroeconomic management.

The macroeconomic consequences of downsizing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Groot, H.L.F.; van Schaik, A.B.T.M.

2002-01-01

The recession in the 1980s followed by the worldwide decrease in transportation and communication costs has triggered a process of downsizing. The macroeconomic consequences of this process are only weakly understood. The model developed in this paper associates downsizing with trade between

Macroeconomic modelling of international carbon tax regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, S.; Mabey, N.; Smith, Clare

1994-01-01

An econometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition, for five of these countries, a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, representing the decline in energy intensity as a function of price and macroeconomic variables. This aims to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. It is shown that the endogenous technical change model does include an important element that is missed in the more conventional approach. However in the long run the magnitude of taxes required to stabilise or reduce emissions would be large, and it is suggested that other non-price policies will become more important. (Author)

Evaluating the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Level of Dollarization in Ukraine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krasnova Iryna V.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The objectives of the article are identifying causal relationships between the macroeconomic determinants and the level of dollarization in Ukraine, as well as determining the activities for de-dollarization. The prerequisites, causes and consequences of dollarization have been covered. On the external grounds, dollarization is recognized as a manifestation of financial integration, on internal grounds, as a consequence of financial instability. The main types and forms of dollarization have been allocated. Forms of financial dollarization have been considered as: deposit, credit and monetary. The determinants that potentially impact the dollarization level have been allocated. According to the results of a correlation analysis, the thesis of direct strong connection between dollarization and currency deposits, i.e. the dominance of deposit dollarization, has been confirmed. In order to determine the causal nature of the interdependencies between variables and the level of dollarization, a Granger causality test was carried out, which confirmed the hypothesis of the significant influence of psychological attitudes and the distrust of economic agents towards the policies of government and monetary authorities. A set of macroeconomic, market and incentive de-dollarization activities have been proposed.

Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

2013-01-01

This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

Long-term process of reforming the economy of Republic of Serbia in order to achieve macroeconomic stabilization: From transient changes to the activist approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gavrilović Milica

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In today's economy, which is burdened by problems such as non-productive economy, high unemployment rates, constant inflationary pressures, great attention is paid to the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies in order to achieve macroeconomic stability. There is no universal model of economic policy even in countries around the world, nor in the Serbian economy, and policy makers are looking for the optimal design of monetary and fiscal strategies and their synchronization with other non-negligible specific economic policy objectives (in terms of balance of payments, objectives related to foreign currency course, the distribution of income, implemented stage of market reforms of the nineties, and then phase of reforms in the first decade of the 21st century. How good coordination of monetary and fiscal measures can be no qualitative basis, or as it is not possible to reconstruct and degrade previous economic structure, and that there is no definition of the new strategy, and continued the process of reforming and in the period from the time of deepening global financial crisis in 2008 . The Republic of Serbia, a country whose economy in the long process of reforming, seeks better use of comparative advantages, encouraging production and employment, adequate planning and allocation of available resources of its own and charge, absorption of new technologies, intensifying exports, encouraging investment, and with a constant potential danger which increase the vulnerability of small economies. The solid foundations of macroeconomic stability and discipline must be in production, proper allocation of resources, which will run the economy, and then increase the employment rate, and therefore national income. of crucial importance of good projections of macroeconomic aggregates, because of them depend on public revenue and public expenditure.

CULTURAL POLICY IN TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES: NEW CHALLENGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulyana V. SHCHURKO

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the new conditions of countries’ development in the post-crisis period. Challenges to the cultural and socio-economic policy during last decade were analyzed. Religious factors are offered to be considered as important mechanisms of solving transition period problems, and at the same time as the causes of many conflicts in the world. It was offered to include those factors as inevitable elements into modern policy making process.

Macroeconomic model of national economy development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Naval

1996-03-01

Full Text Available Some approaches to modeling of national economy development are considered. Methods and models for determination of forecasting values of macroeconomic parameters are proposed at availability or absence of external financing.

Strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in an export-oriented economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merzlyakov Sergey

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Solving the problem of stabilizing the economy is directly tied to the necessity of keeping the main macroeconomic variables stable. However, macroeconomic stability is not in the general case a purely fiscal or a purely monetary problem. How the central bank and the government interact is of principle importance. We investigate the impact of macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of the exchange rate, inflation, output and stabilization fund and consider different forms of strategic interaction between the government and the central bank. In this paper we build a stylized model of an export-oriented economy. We use numerical examples for our analysis and practical conclusions. The effective interaction of fiscal and monetary policies is possible under a cooperative Stackelberg game interaction with the government as leader. It is shown that the independence of the central bank does not play a crucial role.

Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Munazza Jabeen; Saud Ahmad Khan

2014-01-01

What drives volatility in foreign exchange market in Pakistan? This paper undertakes an analysis of modelling exchange rate volatility in Pakistan by potential macroeconomic fundamentals well-known in the economic literature. For this, monthly data on Pak Rupee exchange rates in the terms of major currencies (US Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen) and macroeconomics fundamentals is taken from April, 1982 to November, 2011. The results show thatthe PKR-USD exchange rate vo...

DOES VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL PRICE PRECIPITATE MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This study examines the effects of crude oil price changes on economic activity in an oil dependent economy-Nigeria. A small open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR technique is employed to study the macroeconomic dynamics of domestic price level, economic output, money supply and oil price in Nigeria. The sample covers the data from 1985:q1 to 2010:q4. The Impulse Response Functions (IRFs and the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs results suggest that domestic policies, instead of oil-boom should be blamed for inflation. Also, oil price variations are driven mostly by oil shocks, however, domestic shocks are responsible for a reasonable portion of oil price variations.

Macroeconomic Activity and Monetary Policy Actions: Some Preliminary Evidence.

OpenAIRE

Haslag, Joseph H; Hein, Scott E

1992-01-01

Monetary policy is conducted through open market operations, loans at the discount window, and changes in the reserve requirement structure. The purpose of this paper is to formally investigate the notion that the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios is different from the effect of other policy tools. This is accomplished by decomposing the monetary base into those changes caused by changes in reserve requirement ratios and those caused by other monetary policy actions. Some prelim...

Policy challenges for wildlife management in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mark L. Shaffer

2014-01-01

Try as it might, wildlife management cannot make wild living things adapt to climate change. Management can, however, make adaptation more or less likely. Given that policy is a rule set for action, policy will play a critical role in society’s efforts to help wildlife cope with the challenge of climate change. To be effective, policy must provide clear goals and be...

Low carbon national strategy. A macro-economical assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baiz, Adam; Monnoyer-Smith, Laurence; Callonnec, Gael

2016-11-01

This publication briefly reports the use of the Three-ME model (Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy) to assess the combined effect of the several instruments mobilised for the transition towards a low carbon economy within the French National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC). It first presents the Three-ME model which has been developed since 2008 by the OFCE and the Ademe, is a neo-Keynesian and hybrid model, and which comprises 14.000 equations and 70.000 parameters dealing with prices, interest rates, investments, salaries, foreign trade, State policy, a production function, and a consumption function. Some characteristics of the SNBC scenario are indicated, as well as those of a reference trend-based scenario. Obtained results are then briefly commented in terms of positive ecological and economic impacts of a carbon tax and of sector-based measures defined within the SNBC

The Influence of Macroeconomic Trends on the Repayment of Loans by Households: Evidence from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Policy Reccomendations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pašić Sanela

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the influence of macroeconomic indicators, namely GDP growth, the Consumer Price Index and the unemployment rate on the quality of loan repayments by households in the banking market of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Potential influence is observed over a period of fourteen years at the level of nonperforming household loans using regression analysis. The authors aim to determine whether macroeconomic forces actually influence loan repayment, and if so how and what can be done by banks to utilize this information in order to reduce future credit losses, and by the government to maintain the stability of the banking sector.

Differential model of macroeconomic growth with endogenic cyclicity

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Mikhail I. Geraskin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Objective to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics. Methods economic and mathematical modeling system analysis regression factor analysis econometric time series analysis. Results the article states that under unstable economic growth in Russia forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors taking into account such basic concepts as the neoKeynesian HarrodDomar model Ramsey ndash Cass ndash Koopmans model S. V. Dubovskiyrsquos concept as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multifactor differential economic growth model which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow taking into account the laborsaving and capitalsaving forms of scientifictechnical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP employment fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 19652016 in Russia on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of longwave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated which shows that after 2020 the increase of scientifictechnical progress will be negative. Scientific novelty a model is proposed of the scientifictechnical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained which endogenously takes cyclicity into account

India; 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for India

OpenAIRE

International Monetary Fund

2008-01-01

India’s strong growth and macroeconomic stability is owed to its sound macroeconomic policies and past structural reforms. Swelling capital inflows have highlighted the key policy challenges: managing financial globalization and tackling the supply constraints to growth. Monetary operations and communications are adapting to financial globalization. The Reserve Bank of India maintains a strong focus on preserving financial stability. Further fiscal consolidation is essential to sustain inclus...

Essays in Education and Macroeconomics

Science.gov (United States)

Herrington, Christopher M.

2013-01-01

This dissertation consists of three essays on education and macroeconomics. The first chapter analyzes whether public education financing systems can account for large differences among developed countries in earnings inequality and intergenerational earnings persistence. I first document facts about public education in the U.S. and Norway, which…

Monetary policy and the causality between inflation and money supply in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gatot Sasongko

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Conceptually and empirically, inflation volatility in Indonesia is a monetary and fiscal phenomenon. This study focuses on the macroeconomic policy and public policy especially causality between two variables namely inflation and money supply in Indonesia. This study uses Indonesian macroeconomic data of inflation and money supply from the Bank of Indonesia publication during 2007.1–2017.7. Inflation is measured by the consumer price index, reflects the annual percentage change in costs of acquiring a basket of goods and services to the average consumers that may change at specified intervals. Meanwhile, money supply is measured by the currency, demand deposits, time deposits, and saving deposits. Methodically, this study uses the Granger Causality model to determine the causality between inflation and money supply. The results show that there is a one-way causality between inflation and money supply in Indonesia. These findings imply that money supply causes inflation, but not vice versa. This condition implies that the role of Indonesian Government and Bank of Indonesia were very crucial in managing and controlling macroeconomic policy and public policy. Then, analysis of money supply and inflation also related to impacting factors such as money laundering, role of banks, taxation, tax evasion, and corruption.

A Primer on Macroprudential Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Poutineau, Jean-Christophe; Vermandel, Gauthier

2015-01-01

This article introduces macroprudential policy using a static New Keynesian Macroeconomics model with financial frictions. The authors analyze two related questions: First, they show how the procyclicality of financial factors, captured by the financial accelerator, amplifies the transmission of supply and demand shocks and impacts the intuition…

External Shocks and Macroeconomic Policy: Simulations with EUROMON

OpenAIRE

M. Demertzis; L. de Haan

2001-01-01

We carry out a number of policy simulations with DNB's multicountry model, EUROMON. With these simulations we aim to analyse the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal expansion in light of the current global downturn in the US and the Euro area. We thus run two types of simulations in which we examine first, the real and nominal effects of the interest rate reductions implemented over the past year (2002) in both the US and the EU and second compare, the effects of similar macro policies appli...

[Macroeconomic costs of eye diseases].

Science.gov (United States)

Hirneiß, C; Kampik, A; Neubauer, A S

2014-05-01

Eye diseases that are relevant regarding their macroeconomic costs and their impact on society include cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of direct and indirect costs for major eye disease categories for Germany, based on existing literature and data sources. A semi-structured literature search was performed in the databases Medline and Embase and in the search machine Google for relevant original papers and reviews on costs of eye diseases with relevance for or transferability to Germany (last research date October 2013). In addition, manual searching was performed in important national databases and information sources, such as the Federal Office of Statistics and scientific societies. The direct costs for these diseases add up to approximately 2.6 billion Euros yearly for the Federal Republic of Germany, including out of the pocket payments from patients but excluding optical aids (e.g. glasses). In addition to those direct costs there are also indirect costs which are caused e.g. by loss of employment or productivity or by a reduction in health-related quality of life. These indirect costs can only be roughly estimated. Including the indirect costs for the eye diseases investigated, a total yearly macroeconomic cost ranging between 4 and 12 billion Euros is estimated for Germany. The costs for the eye diseases cataract, diabetic retinopathy, age-related maculopathy, glaucoma and refractive errors have a macroeconomic relevant dimension. Based on the predicted demographic changes with an ageing society an increase of the prevalence and thus also an increase of costs for eye diseases is expected in the future.

The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Hsing

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on the stock market index in South Africa. The exponential GARCH (Nelson, 1991 model is applied. It finds that South Africa’s stock market index is positively influenced by the growth rate of real GDP, the ratio of the money supply to GDP and the U.S. stock market index and negatively affected by the ratio of the government deficit to GDP, the domestic real interest rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, the domestic inflation rate, and the U.S. government bond yield. Therefore, to maintain a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to pursue economic growth, fiscal prudence, a higher ratio of the money supply to GDP, a lower real interest rate, depreciation of the rand, and/or a lower inflation rate.

The Czech Equity Market - Its Effectiveness and Macroeconomic Consequences

OpenAIRE

Helena Horská

2005-01-01

This paper examines features of the Czech stock market’s development from 1997 to 2003 and attempts to unveil the macroeconomic consequences of stock-price development. The analysis of the stock market’s behavior supports a cautionary stance on the hypothesis of the efficient-market theory, even in its weak form. Another finding, as regards the macroeconomic consequences of stock-price development, undermined the assumption of the positive wealth effect of rising stocks. In relation to GDP gr...

SUSTAINABILITY OF FISCAL POLICY. CASE OF ROMANIA*

OpenAIRE

Ionuţ-Cătălin Croitoru

2012-01-01

The Sustainability of fiscal policy is one of the key concerns of each state, especially in periods of macroeconomic imbalance. This study aims to explore the concept of sustainability of Romanian’s fiscal policy. The analysis starts from the definition of sustainability of fiscal policy and its assessment methods. The work is based on the idea that a sustainable fiscal policy ensure sufficient financial resources for long-term to reduce public debt to GDP weighting and provide permits for gr...

MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND GREENFIELD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT OF HOTEL BRANDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jože Perić

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The powerful attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI is particularly important for further development of tourism. The strategically focused attraction of FDI in tourism has a much higher significance because of the multiple effects in relation to other segments of the economy. In this context, it is necessary to highlight the investment engagement and the presence of globally branded luxury hotels. The purpose of the study is to assess the macroeconomic environment, the effects of greenfield FDI in tourism and, consequently, the presence of global hotel brands using the comparative analysis of the selected countries as the methodological basis of this study. The research results indicate that a favorable macroeconomic environment plays an important role in attracting foreign capital. Countries that have a more favorable macroeconomic environment attract more greenfield FDI, and provide a greater presence of global hotel brands, and thus greater competitiveness. Also, the political stability, the encouraging macroeconomic business conditions, the elimination of administrative and legislative barriers, the elimination of the country's image as a corrupt destination and tourism staff education at all levels are particularly important for FDI in tourism.

Monetary policy and macroeconomic management: A simulation ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The dynamic nexus between money supply, fiscal deficit, inflation, output and exchange rate management has generated much debate in economic literature in Nigeria in recent times. To contribute to this debate, this paper uses 3SLS estimation technique as well as carried out policy simulation experiment to investigate ...

Convergence, Crisis and Unemployment in Europe: The Need for Innovative Policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Marelli

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the double crisis that affected the euro area in the recent period. The focal point is that the austerity measures that have been undertaken in the area, especially in the peripheral countries hurt by the sovereign debt crisis, have not only caused a deep recession but are likely to lead to stagnation and persistent unemployment. In the first part of the paper, original weaknesses in the construction of the monetary union are examined, the emphasis being placed on nominal convergence criteria without taking into account the need for real convergence. This analysis is corroborated by some econometric investigations based on sigma and beta convergence for different macroeconomic variables, distinguishing between the pre-crisis period, 1999-2007, and the recent 2008-2013 period. The empirical section continues with a discussion of recent macroeconomic trends focusing on unemployment: it stresses that the deep and prolonged recession can be defeated only by adequate demand management policies. The next section explains how the excessive austerity policies recently carried out have also been caused by wrong assumptions about the size of the fiscal multipliers. The final policy section emphasizes three aspects: (i the radical reforms, at the European level, necessary if the monetary union is to survive; (ii the changes in macroeconomic policies required to put an end to the present stagnation; (iii the different and innovative policies needed to fight the high level of unemployment (especially youth unemployment.

Racial Diversity and Macroeconomic Productivity across US States and Cities

OpenAIRE

Sparber, Chad

2007-01-01

The United States is growing increasingly diverse, so it is important that economists understand the macroeconomic consequences of diversity within the US economy. International analyses often argue that heterogeneity reduces macroeconomic productivity by engendering corruption, political instability, and social turmoil. However, other studies claim that diversity improves creative decision making and augments productivity. This paper exploits differences in diversity across regions of the Un...

The macroeconomic effects of oil shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rates - a comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvie, C.

1993-01-01

The objective of this paper is to explore further, from a primarily theoretical perspective, the macroeconomic implications arising for an oil-producing economy operating with either a fixed or flexible exchange rate system - to explore, in particular, which of these two extreme systems best offers insulatory properties, in the sense of reducing the volatility of adjustment of key macroeconomic variables arising primarily from oil-related shocks. The issue is explored by analyzing a theoretical framework, which emphasizes the long-run nature of the adjustment process. Such an emphasis is particularly pertinent in models which assume that economic agents possess rational expectations, where long-run equilibrium will have a major bearing upon the short-run adjustment process itself. However, due to the complexity of the model developed here, it is not possible to derive analytical unambiguous results, hence emphasis is placed upon deriving results through numerical simulation. The results derived enable an identification to be made of the importance, for policy purposes, of implementing an appropriate exchange rate system for oil producing and exporting economics with the characteristics emphasised in this paper. (3 figures). (Author)

Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

2007-01-01

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

Challenges of the Unemployment Protection System and Active Policies in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Del Pino, Eloísa

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The NorSpaR project aims to analyse the main public policy initiatives by which Norway and Spain cope with the new social and economic challenges derived from the so-called New Social Risks (NSR. Although both countries present significant differences in their institutional settings (such as Spanish EU membership, or its belonging to diverse welfare regimes types (Norway is generally included in the Nordic regime, while Spain is part of the Mediterranean one, both countries share a common interest in addressing the aforementioned challenges while maintaining social cohesion. In the last decade, governments in both countries have tried to respond to those challenges by reforming their labour markets, adapting their unemployment schemes, as well as their gender, family and long-term care policies. The analysis covered in this project includes three areas of public policy addressing NSR. First, dependency is one of the most daunting challenges for post-industrial societies experiencing population ageing and with an increasing number of frail people in need of care. This situation is forcing governments to rethink their long-term care policies. Second, family and gender public programs need to respond to the growing difficulties of families in reconciling professional and family life. Third, in the transition to a post-industrial order, and in a context of mass unemployment, social protection systems have a renewed prominence. Along with the so-called passive policies offering financial support to the unemployed, active labour market policies are geared to put people back into work. In our analysis we try to find answers to the following questions: What are the challenges that each of these policies have been trying to address in recent years? How have these policies evolved? What kinds of reforms have been implemented, and which ones have been neglected? Have the policy goals and targets of welfare programs been modified in any significant way

Macro-economic model of aggregate market in the Albanian economy, and relevant problems thereto

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dr.Sc. Alqi Naqellari

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This paper uses concrete data obtained on the Albanian economy to analyse the positions of aggregate demand/supply curves in the economy. As examples from micro-economics, we have taken the models of Ŵalras and Marshall, to view the possibilities of achieving an economic equilibrium. Data available from the Albanian economy, and from the global economic trends generally, have shown that the positions of curves are such, with differences in their inclination, while the classic position of the aggregate demand curve, with a negative trend, studied in the macro-economic theory, is unique. Therefore, our objective is to try and show the scholars of the field that the macro-economic problems must be viewed in this light, and not through the static scheme used so far. The equilibrium is met not only when the aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves are met, meaning when the aggregate expenditure are equal to aggregate production, but it exists at every moment, independently of whether it is consistent or not, while the pricing trends continue to increase, similar to two other aggregates. The understanding of such a situation should give the possibility to governments and other policy-making institutions to review their positions and relations with monetary and fiscal indicators, in a view of making the organic connection, and increasing their working effectiveness. The paper aims to show how one can define the relation between monetary and fiscal policies necessary to see their role and relevance in the economic growth of a country.

Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Residential Property ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Sultan

exerted by macroeconomic factors on residential property returns in Abuja. The backward .... explanatory power and positive influence of employment and ...... Project. Management In Property Development: the Nigeria experience. Ibadan:.

The impact of macroeconomic variables on SMEs in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Halim, F. A.; Malim, M. R.; Derasit, Z.; Rani, R. M.; Rashid, S. S.

2017-09-01

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia have gained a prominent role as the significant contributor to the economic growth. However, the world nowadays is heading towards economic downturn. The stability of macroeconomic variables promotes profitability of SMEs which propels them to a stage where they can access financing for sustaining growth. Therefore, it is apparent that the behaviour of the macroeconomic variables plays a major part in determining the nation’s backbone in surviving the economic downturn. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic variables on the profitability of SMEs in Malaysia using multiple regression analysis. The findings revealed that the exchange rate has a small positive impact on SME GDP growth rate (10.81%), the interest rate has a strong positive impact (60.74%), while the inflation rate has a strong negative impact (-53.89%). Therefore, it can be concluded that the interest rate and inflation rate have significant impacts on the profitability of SMEs in Malaysia.

Language Policy and Planning: Challenges for Latin American Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Hamel, Rainer Enrique; Álvarez López, Elisa; Carvalhal, Tatiana Pereira

2016-01-01

This article starts with an overview of the sociolinguistic situation in Latin America as a context for language policy and planning (LPP) decisions in the academic field. Then it gives a brief overview of the language policy challenges faced by universities to cope with neoliberal internationalisation. A conceptualisation of the domain as a…

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: DIAGNOSIS AND PROPOSALS FOR A BRAZILIAN PUBLIC POLICY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milton de Abreu Campanario

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The text is the part of public policy of a larger research project on Brazilian Outward ForeignDirect Investment - OFDI. The text analyses the viability to adopt policies to enhance FDI,particularly outward. Based on statistical data and on literature review, the policy agenda framesthe underling questions surrounding the theme. There is not yet a theoretical framework to dealwith emergent countries’ FDI and related policies. There exist strong evidences that capital flowsthrough FDI generate externalities in the following domains: macroeconomics, microeconomicsand foreign relations particularly in areas related to industrial organization and innovation. Thetheoretical proposition is that international capital flows are compatible to monetary stability,commercial openness, investment promotion and industrial innovation policies. A betterpositioning of national enterprises internationally may result in growing partnership within theforeign environment. Brazil has not a set of policies to deal with inward and outward BrazilianFDI flows. These policies do not necessarily jeopardize macroeconomic policy and the relatedmonetary and currency stabilization goals. It contends that FDI stimulus by means of publicpolicies may contribute not just to a better competitiveness and innovation of Brazilianenterprises, but also assure a balanced growing and economic structural change.

Review of Selected Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Building ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... This study therefore investigates the impact of macro-economic indicators on the prices of ... factors, Construction projects, Procurement, prices, Building Materials, Delivery ...

What does Europe pay for clean energy?-Review of macroeconomic simulation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dannenberg, Astrid; Mennel, Tim; Moslener, Ulf

2008-01-01

This paper analyses the macroeconomic costs of environmental regulation in European energy markets on the basis of existing macroeconomic simulation studies. The analysis comprises the European emssions trading scheme, energy taxes, measures in the transport sector and the promotion of renewable energy sources. We find that these instruments affect the European economy, in particular the energy-intensive industries and the industries that produce internationally tradeable goods. From a macroeconomic point of view, however, the costs of environmental regulation appear to be modest. The underlying environmental targets and the efficient design of regulation are key determinants for the cost burden

The Moral Challenge of Dangerous Climate Change: Values, Poverty, and Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Crabtree, Andrew

2016-01-01

Book review of: The Moral Challenge of Dangerous Climate Change: Values, Poverty, and Policy by Darrel Moellendorf. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014, pp. 263 (paperback), ISBN 978-1-107-67850-7......Book review of: The Moral Challenge of Dangerous Climate Change: Values, Poverty, and Policy by Darrel Moellendorf. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014, pp. 263 (paperback), ISBN 978-1-107-67850-7...

The Role of Accounting and Accounting Law in Establishing Public Economic Policies in the Post-crisis Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aurelian Virgil BĂLUŢĂ

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The following issues are being adressed in this paper: the relationship of accounting and accounting law with the local economy, the relationship of accounting and accounting law with macroeconomics, establishing public policies for certain categories of enterprises based on information provided by accounting and accounting law, the relationship of accounting and accounting law with macroeconomics foresight and forecast, the relationship of accounting and accounting law with the labor economy, the impact the wage regulations has on public economic policies under firm ownership change.

Climate policies in a second-best world-A case study on India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Guivarch, Celine

2010-01-01

The aim of this article is to analyze the potential for synergies between climate policies and development in a case study on India focusing on the power sector sub-optimalities. To do so, we use IMACLIM-R, a dynamic recursive energy-economy model that represents a second best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustments constraints along a long-term growth path. The analysis suggests (i) global carbon pricing induces prohibitive macroeconomic costs for the Indian economy, even in the case of significant financial transfers associated with a global cap-and-trade system and a 'Contraction and Convergence in 2100' allocation scheme and (ii) the most cost efficient climate policies are not uniform carbon pricing only. The implementation of domestic policies suited to the national context, for instance targeting sub-optimalities in the power sector for India, allows reducing significantly the macroeconomic costs induced by international mitigation policies.

Macroeconomic and household-level impacts of HIV/AIDS in Botswana.

Science.gov (United States)

Jefferis, Keith; Kinghorn, Anthony; Siphambe, Happy; Thurlow, James

2008-07-01

To measure the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and poverty in Botswana and estimate how providing treatment can mitigate its effects. Demographic and financial projections were combined with economic simulation models, including a macroeconomic growth model and a macro-microeconomic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. HIV/AIDS significantly reduces economic growth and increases household poverty. The impact is now severe enough to be affecting the economy as a whole, and threatens to pull some of the uninfected population into poverty. Providing antiretroviral therapy can partly offset this negative effect. Treatment increases health's share of government expenditure only marginally, because it increases economic growth and because withholding treatment raises the cost of other health services. Botswana's treatment programme is appropriate from a macroeconomic perspective. Conducting macroeconomic impact assessments is important in countries where prevalence rates are particularly high.

Economic impacts of EU climate policy until 2020; EU:n ilmastopolitiikan talousvaikutukset vuoteen 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rantala, O. E-mail: olavi.rantala@etla.fi

2012-07-01

The study evaluates the impacts of EU climate policy on the emission allowance price, electricity prices, the competitiveness of industry and macroeconomic developments in the third EU emission trading period 2013-2020. The economic impacts of climate policy on Finland are compared to the impacts on the entire EU area. It turns out that due to its cold climate and heating energy demand, higher export intensity of the economy and higher energy intensity of the industry Finland pays a higher price for EU climate policy in terms of output and employment losses than the EU on average. The study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate policy also in the more distant future, assuming that climate policy is tightened further in the 2020s. Climate policy implemented by emission trading means that the long-term economic growth in the EU area depends essentially on emission-free electricity production, and no longer on other growth factors, such as the labour supply and productivity growth. (orig.)

The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Malaysian Post Recession Growth

OpenAIRE

Lee, Chin

2013-01-01

This study aims to find out the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in Malaysian post recession growth. The selected macroeconomic variables are exports, imports, price level, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and government expenditure. The technique of cointegration was employed to assess the long run equilibrium relationships among the variables. Then, this study performs the Granger causality tests based on VECM to establish the short run causality among the variables. The long-ru...

Turn on the Lights: Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Renewable in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Ihtisham Abdul Malik; Ghamz-e-Ali Siyal; Alias Bin Abdullah; Arif Alam; Khalid Zaman

2014-01-01

The objective of the study is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic factors (i.e., population growth; urbanization, industrialization, exchange rate, price level, food production index and live stock production index) and renewable energy in Pakistan over a period of 1975-2012. In addition, this study uses oil rent as an intervening variable to overcome the biasness of the single equation model. The results indicate that macroeconomic factors positively contributed to renewable en...

Health policy making for street children: challenges and strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdi, Fatemeh; Saeieh, Sara Esmaelzadeh; Roozbeh, Nasibeh; Yazdkhasti, Mansoureh

2017-08-17

Background The phenomenon of street children is a bio-psychological and social issue that not only harms children, but also endangers the health of a society. In line with the national programs for the development and promotion of street children's health in Iran, health policy making and essential strategies for this group of children will be presented in this paper. This paper will discuss the main issues and challenges of street children's health and, also, health policy and guidelines for this population. Methods In this review study, the keywords; street children, health, challenges, policy, and health policy making were searched through PubMed, SID, Iranmedex, World Health Organization (WHO), Emro, the Cochran Library, Medline and Google scholar to collect data. The search resulted in 84 related resources from which 48 cases that were more relevant to this research and covered the issue more comprehensively, were used. All data published during 2002-2015 have been included in this paper. Results Key concepts including street children and their health, health policy, strategies to improve the health of street children, health policy approaches for street children, the WHO's strategies, and social support program for street children must be considered in the health policy making processes for street children, as precise identification of the relevant information makes planning more effective in health policy making for this group of children. Conclusion The phenomenon of street children is a growing problem in the world and it has turned into a serious concern in many countries including Iran. The findings of this study can be used for identifying necessary measures in order to use research outcomes more effectively in policy making processes and reforming street children's health policies in Iran.

Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Paap (Richard)

1997-01-01

textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

Monetary Policy after August 2007

Science.gov (United States)

Gertler, Mark

2013-01-01

In this article, the author describes conceptually how to think about the dramatic changes in monetary policy since the sub-prime crisis of August 2007. He also discusses how to incorporate these changes and related economic concepts in the teaching of an undergraduate class in macroeconomics. A distinction is made between conventional and…

Macroeconomic Stability in a Model with Bond Transaction Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Massimiliano Marzo

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Cochrane (2014 shows that high-powered money balances and short-term government bonds can be considered as perfect substitutes for the U.S economy during the past twenty years. We build on this claim and consider a variant of the standard cashless new-Keynesian model with two types of government bonds, which can be thought of as short- and long-term bonds. The first one has a macroeconomic role in the sense that it provides transaction services in addition to generating a yield. The other type of government bond pays only an interest rate. Consistent with previous findings, the Taylor principle is not a panacea for equilibrium determinacy in a model without money. When the government bond market matters beyond the need for fiscal solvency, monetary policy rules do not need to comply with the Taylor principle for unique equilibria to exist.

Assessing the Macroeconomic Importance of Gasoline and Vehicle Spending

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santini, Danilo J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Poyer, David A. [Morehouse College, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2016-05-01

Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession, real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and

Empirical evidence in the analysis of the environmental and energy policies of a series of industrialised nations, during the period 1960-1997, using widely employed macroeconomic indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Focacci, Antonio

2003-01-01

This article underlines the main implications of the interrelations between the energy problem and that of environmental pollution, using the most widely used macroeconomic indicators in the field of policy analysis. In fact, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission intensity and energy intensity trends may be used to highlight the most important features of economic development over a given time scale in a variety of different countries. The empirical analysis proposed here--covering a time-span of some 40 years in a number of the most highly industrialised nations--seems to be useful if we are to understand the main similarities and differences in the interaction between the energy choices made by different countries and their respective environmental effects. Moreover, by using PPPs, it has been possible to propose a more detailed cross-country analysis for the different international situations

Challenges : adopting GIS for diplomacy and foreign policy

Science.gov (United States)

Christian, Carol

Foreign policy and diplomacy are, by definition, location specific. GIS-related tools can be useful to decision makers and problem solvers to merge diverse data that impinges on policy issues. While to a degree, such technologies have been adopted for natural disaster response, security, and environmental studies, widespread adoption of GIS into policy tasks has been slow. Decision makers and nonexperts are reluctant to assimilate new tools into old cultures because of a number of hurdles. Yet clearly, information sharing would be advantageous and allow visualization of information and situations in a more productive environment. This presentation will touch upon some of the challenges and stimulate discussion.

Implementing a voluntary wage policy: Lessons from the Irish and Spanish wages policies before the crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferreiro Jesús

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Despite the relevance given by the Post-Keynesian thought to wage and incomes policies, little attention has been paid to the institutional elements that would favour the unions’ acceptance of a voluntary moderation of wage claims. Recent wage policies have been implemented in European countries, like Ireland and Spain, which do not fulfil the requirements assumed by corporatist analysis for a successful implementation of wage policies. The success of wage policies in Ireland and Spain, in terms of economic performance and the length of current wage policies, offers a valuable insight on how wages policies can be implemented as a key piece of macroeconomic policy: It also helps our understanding of the institutional framework that favours the implementation of voluntary wages policies.

Macroeconomic Analysis and Graphical Interpretation of Azerbaijan Economy in 1991-2012

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Khatai ALIYEV

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze macroeconomic performance and discuss transition indicators in Azerbaijan economy for 1991-2012. After regaining independence in 1991, Azerbaijan implemented economic transition process toward market economy. In the first years of independence, serious economic recession was observed. However, after 1995, the restructuring of the economy started. In this sense, signing the “Contract of the Century” was a turning point toward oil based high speed economic growth or oil boom period. Thus, by opening “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan” pipeline in 2005, Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic indicators experienced considerable growth for the following years. On the other hand, Azerbaijan officially declared the end of economic transition process in its economy in 2009. In this paper, the authors discuss the political-economic and economic process in the whole period as well as analyze the macroeconomic performance with and without oil & gas contribution. In addition, the authors question what would happen if economic transition period ended in Azerbaijan’s economy. It is concluded that oil & gas production has a serious impact over macroeconomic indicators and transition indicators, and for Azerbaijan it implies only a partly end of economic transition, though not completely.

Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

2006-01-01

This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

Development research: The environmental challenge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winpenny, J.T.

1991-01-01

This book represents papers from a 1990 conference 'The environment, Development and Economic Research'. The focus of the book is the environmental and natural resource use problems, though economic development is a strong co-theme. Chapters cover the following topic areas: international issues; macroeconomic policies; natural resource degradation; urban problems; social dimensions; bio-diversity; energy; economic valuation

Impact of inflation on the macroeconomic indicators in transition economies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ranković Marko

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper is dealing with treats of inflation in times of world financial turmoil. It examines how inflation is impacting macroeconomic factors. Is there relationship and how strong it is between inflation and economic growth, unemployment rate and other selected economic indicators? Motivated by these questions, this paper examines the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic indicators: real GDP annual growth rate, privatization revenues, as part of the GDP, level of investments, unemployment rate and share of assets of foreign banks in domestic bank system by using data for 13 transition economies over the period 1993-2008. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic indicators is significantly and strongly negative, observed for the region. However, for small number countries in transition there is no direct significant relationship between inflation, but indirect relationship has been showed.

The challenge of multilingualism: in response to the language policy ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This article investigates the requirements of the newly released Language Policy for Higher Education and provides guidelines for an educational approach that would support multilingual, higher education. In a nutshell, this policy challenges higher education institutions to provide in the linguistic needs of the new, more ...

Fiscal Policy and the Implementation of the Walsh Contract for Central Bankers

OpenAIRE

Haizhou Huang; A. Jorge Padilla

2002-01-01

We develop a simple macroeconomic model where the time inconsistency of optimal monetary policy is due to tax distortions. If fiscal policy is exogenously fixed at its optimal level, a Walsh contract (Walsh, 1995) offered to an independent central bank implements the optimal monetary policy. When fiscal policy is determined endogenously, however, this contract is subject to strategic manipulation by the government, which results in a suboptimal policy mix. Implementing the optimal policy mix ...

Challenges for sustainable resource use : Uncertainty, trade and climate policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bretschger, L.; Smulders, Sjak A.

2012-01-01

We integrate new challenges to thinking about resource markets and sustainable resource use policies in a general framework. The challenges, emerging from six papers that JEEM publishes in a special issue, are (i) demand uncertainty and stockpiling, (ii) international trade and resource dependence,

Donor policy rules and aid effectiveness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars

2008-01-01

The present paper examines the macroeconomic impact of aid, by introducing endogenous aid allocations into a neoclassical growth framework. On this basis it is shown that donor policies can have important implications for the trajectory of recipients' GDP per capita. Depending on specific donor...... policy choices, aid disbursements may lead to faster transitional growth, stagnation or cyclical growth. Moreover, the analysis also suggests that donor policies may be part of the reason why foreign aid is not found to be uniformly effective in raising long-run productivity across recipients...

Criticism of the Classical Theory of Macroeconomic Modeling

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Konstantin K. Kumehov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Current approaches and methods of modeling of macroeconomic systems do not allow to generate research ideas that could be used in applications. This is largely due to the fact that the dominant economic schools and research directions are building their theories on misconceptions about the economic system as object modeling, and have no common methodological approaches in the design of macroeconomic models. All of them are focused on building a model aimed at establishing equilibrium parameters of supply and demand, production and consumption. At the same time as the underlying factors are not considered resource potential and the needs of society in material and other benefits. In addition, there is no unity in the choice of elements and mechanisms of interaction between them. Not installed, what are the criteria to determine the elements of the model: whether it is the institutions, whether the industry is whether the population, or banks, or classes, etc. From the methodological point of view, the design of the model all the most well-known authors extrapolated to the new models of the past state or past events. As a result, every time the model is ready by the time the situation changes, the last parameters underlying the model are losing relevance, so at best, the researcher may have to interpret the events and parameters that are not feasible in the future. In this paper, based on analysis of the works of famous authors, belonging to different schools and areas revealed weaknesses of their proposed macroeconomic models that do not allow you to use them to solve applied problems of economic development. A fundamentally new approaches and methods by which it is possible the construction of macroeconomic models that take into account the theoretical and applied aspects of modeling, as well as formulated the basic methodological requirements.

Managing Relative Decline: An Analysis of Foreign Policy Alternatives for the United States

Science.gov (United States)

2015-02-17

Eugenics Society nearly 80 years ago describing a psychological phenomenon that still permeates current macroeconomic and foreign policy discourse...share of 26.23 percent and the 2013 share of 22.83 percent represents only a 3.4 percent decline but in constant 2010 currency this amounts to more...becoming more and more diffuse. The macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions that exist today are ill-suited to an “in your face” deep engagement

Macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility: A case of South Asian countries

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Yahya Waqas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Macroeconomic factors play a pivotal role in attracting foreign investment in the country. This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility in South Asian countries. The monthly data is collected for the period ranging from 2000 to 2012 for four Asian countries i.e. China, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka because monthly data is ideal for measuring portfolio investment volatility. For measuring volatility in foreign portfolio investment, GARCH (1,1 is used because shocks are responded quickly by this model. The results reveal that there exists significant relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign portfolio investment volatility. Thus, less volatility in international portfolio flows is associated with high interest rate, currency depreciation, foreign direct investment, lower inflation, and higher GDP growth rate of the host country. Thus findings of this study suggest that foreign portfolio investors focus on stable macroeconomic environment of country.

IFRS 9 implementation in banks and macroeconomic scenarios: Some methodological aspects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brković Milan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The International Financial Reporting Standard 9 - IFRS is another one in the series of global level initiatives undertaken with a view to fixing the consequences of the global economic and financial crisis, and preventing the future negative developments caused by inadequate recognition and presentation of credit losses on the part of banks. The IFRS 9 also represents a significant shift in relation to traditional accounting, given that it introduced the concept of expected credit losses to replace the concept of occurred credit losses. This task cannot be fulfilled by the traditional and conservative accounting without involving the macroeconomic assessment models, i.e. macroeconomic scenarios. This paper aims to highlight some specific methodological rudiments in macroeconomic analyses and forecasts as inputs for the accounting recognition and presentation of expected credit losses.

Health spending, macroeconomics and fiscal space in countries of the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Indrani; Mondal, Swadhin

2014-01-01

The paper examines the issues around mobilization of resources for the 11 countries of the South-East Asia Region of the World Health Organization (WHO), by analysing their macroeconomic situation, health spending, fiscal space and other determinants of health. With the exception of a few, most of these countries have made fair progress on their own Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets of maternal mortality ratio and mortality rate in children aged under 5 years. However, the achieved targets have been very modest - with the exception of Thailand and Sri Lanka - indicating the continued need for additional efforts to improve these indicators. The paper discusses the need for investment, by looking at evidence on economic growth, the availability of fiscal space, and improvements in "macroeconomic-plus" factors like poverty, female literacy, governance and efficiency of the health sector. The analysis indicates that, overall, the countries of the WHO South-East Asia Region are collectively in a position to make the transition from low public spending to moderate or even high health spending, which is required, in turn, for transition from lowcoverage-high out-of-pocket spending (OOPS) to highcoverage-low OOPS. However, explicit prioritization for health within the overall government budget for low spenders would require political will and champions who can argue the case of the health sector. Additional innovative avenues of raising resources, such as earmarked taxes or a health levy can be considered in countries with good macroeconomic fundamentals. With the exception of Thailand, this is applicable for all the countries of the region. However, countries with adverse macroeconomic-plus factors, as well as inefficient health systems, need to be alert to the possibility of overinvesting - and thereby wasting - resources for modest health gains, making the challenge of increasing health sector spending alongside competing demands for spending on other areas of

Nonlinearities in Behavioral Macroeconomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes, Orlando

2017-07-01

This article undertakes a journey across the literature on behavioral macroeconomics, with attention concentrated on the nonlinearities that the behavioral approach typically suggests or implies. The emphasis is placed on thinking the macro economy as a living organism, composed of many interacting parts, each one having a will of its own, which is in sharp contrast with the mechanism of the orthodox view (well represented by the neoclassical or new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium - DSGE - model). The paper advocates that a thorough understanding of individual behavior in collective contexts is the only possible avenue to further explore macroeconomic phenomena and the often observed 'anomalies' that the benchmark DSGE macro framework is unable to explain or justify. After a reflection on the role of behavioral traits as a fundamental component of a new way of thinking the economy, the article proceeds with a debate on some of the most relevant frameworks in the literature that somehow link macro behavior and nonlinearities; covered subjects include macro models with disequilibrium rules, agent-based models that highlight interaction and complexity, evolutionary switching frameworks, and inattention based decision problems. These subjects have, as a fundamental point in common, the use of behavioral elements to transform existing interpretations of the economic reality, making it more evident how irregular fluctuations emerge and unfold on the aggregate.

Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

OpenAIRE

Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

2012-01-01

Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

Organization and Finance of China's Health Sector: Historical Antecedents for Macroeconomic Structural Adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hui; Hilsenrath, Peter

2016-01-01

China has exploded onto the world economy over the past few decades and is undergoing rapid transformation toward relatively more services. The health sector is an important part of this transition. This article provides a historical account of the development of health care in China since 1949. It also focuses on health insurance and macroeconomic structural adjustment to less saving and more consumption. In particular, the question of how health insurance impacts precautionary savings is considered. Multivariate analysis using data from 1990 to 2012 is employed. The household savings rate is the dependent variable in 3 models segmented for rural and urban populations. Independent variables include out-of-pocket health expenditures, health insurance payouts, housing expenditure, education expenditure, and consumption as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). Out-of-pocket health expenditures were positively correlated with household savings rates. But health insurance remains weak, and increased payouts by health insurers have not been associated with lower levels of household savings so far. Housing was positively correlated, whereas education had a negative association with savings rates. This latter finding was unexpected. Perhaps education is perceived as investment and a substitute for savings. China's shift toward a more service-oriented economy includes growing dependence on the health sector. Better health insurance is an important part of this evolution. The organization and finance of health care is integrally linked with macroeconomic policy in an environment constrained by prevailing institutional convention. Problems of agency relationships, professional hegemony, and special interest politics feature prominently, as they do elsewhere. China also has a dual approach to medicine relying heavily on providers of traditional Chinese medicine. Both of these segments will take part in China's evolution, adding another layer of complexity to policy. © The

Navigating catastrophes: Local but not global optimisation allows for macro-economic navigation of crises

Science.gov (United States)

Harré, Michael S.

2013-02-01

Two aspects of modern economic theory have dominated the recent discussion on the state of the global economy: Crashes in financial markets and whether or not traditional notions of economic equilibrium have any validity. We have all seen the consequences of market crashes: plummeting share prices, businesses collapsing and considerable uncertainty throughout the global economy. This seems contrary to what might be expected of a system in equilibrium where growth dominates the relatively minor fluctuations in prices. Recent work from within economics as well as by physicists, psychologists and computational scientists has significantly improved our understanding of the more complex aspects of these systems. With this interdisciplinary approach in mind, a behavioural economics model of local optimisation is introduced and three general properties are proven. The first is that under very specific conditions local optimisation leads to a conventional macro-economic notion of a global equilibrium. The second is that if both global optimisation and economic growth are required then under very mild assumptions market catastrophes are an unavoidable consequence. Third, if only local optimisation and economic growth are required then there is sufficient parametric freedom for macro-economic policy makers to steer an economy around catastrophes without overtly disrupting local optimisation.

Solar rooftop in India: Policies, challenges and outlook

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malti Goel

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Solar photovoltaic rooftop has emerged as a potential green technology to address climate change issues by reducing reliance on conventional fossil fuel based energy. With a strong commitment to increase the renewable sources based energy capacity to 175 GW by 2022, India has a target to install 100 GW of solar energy capacity. Of this 40 GW would be the share of grid connected solar PV rooftop. This paper examines global growth in solar energy, world's major rooftop installed capacity countries' policies and solar rooftop policy instruments in India. The current Indian goals, issues & challenges in achieving them and trends in further development are discussed. Keywords: Solar energy, India, Rooftop PV, Policies, Outlook

The effect of macroeconomic variables on suicide.

Science.gov (United States)

Berk, Michael; Dodd, Seetal; Henry, Margaret

2006-02-01

There are a large number of factors mediating suicide. Many studies have searched for a direct causal relationship between economic hardship and suicide, however, findings have been varied. Suicide data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period between January 1968 and August 2002. These were correlated with a suite of macroeconomic data including housing loan interest rates, unemployment rates, days lost to industrial disputes, Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Sentiment Index. A total of 51845 males and 16327 females committed suicide between these dates. There were significant associations between suicide rates and eleven macroeconomic indicators for both genders in at least one age range. Data was divided into male and female and five age ranges and pooled ages. Analyses were conducted on these 132 datasets resulting in 80 significant findings. The data was generally stronger for indices measuring economic performance than indices measuring consumers' perceptions of the state of the economy. A striking difference between male and female trends was seen. Generally, male suicide rates increased with markers of economic adversity, while the opposite pattern was seen in females. There were significantly different patterns in age-stratified data, with for example higher housing loan interest rates having a positive association with suicide in younger people and a negative association in older age groups. Macroeconomic trends are significantly associated with suicide. The patterns in males and females are very different, and there are further substantial age-related differences.

Families in the context of macroeconomic crises: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, Gabriela; Cunha, Diana; Crespo, Carla; Relvas, Ana Paula

2016-09-01

The present study is a systematic review of empirical literature from the last 35 years on families' responses to economic distress in the context of macroeconomic crises. Thirty-nine studies published between 1983 and 2015 in 12 countries were identified, resulting in 3 main findings. First, economic distress was associated with negative changes in family dynamics, specifically couple relationships and parenting. Second, protective factors were found to buffer the adverse effects of economic distress on family and individual outcomes. Third, the results suggest that individual responses to macroeconomic crises may be moderated by sex. Implications for future research encompass using validated assessment instruments, including participants beyond 2-parent families with adolescent children and conducting both longitudinal and qualitative studies that focus on the processes and meanings of adaptation within this risk context. Conclusions highlighted the need to assist families dealing with macroeconomic crises' demands, encouraging the development and validation of macrosystemic intervention programs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Holle, Frederiek

2017-01-01

This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first paper, “Stock-Bond Correlations, Macroeconomic Regimes and Monetary Policy”, we link the evolution of stock-bond correlations for an international sample to both local and global regimes in inflation, the output gap and monetary policy. We

can Money Matter for Interest Rate Policy?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brueckner, M.; Schabert, A.

2006-01-01

In this paper it is shown that money can matter for macroeconomic stability under interest rate policy when transactions frictions are non-negligible. We develop a sticky price model with a shopping time function, which induces the marginal utility of consumption to depend on the (predetermined)

Signalling, wage controls and monetary disinflation policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Persson, T.

1993-01-01

Focuses on wage control and monetary disinflation policy. How the crucial variable to control is the money supply and wage and price controls should be avoided because of their macroeconomic costs; The two types of government as being low-inflation governments and high-inflation governments; How

Towards a Policy Framework for Decent Work.

Science.gov (United States)

Egger, Philippe

2002-01-01

International Labour Organization (ILO) standards for decent work promote social justice and humane working conditions. These standards can contribute to sustainable development, macroeconomic security, and fairer distribution of benefits from growth. The ILO is working for policy integration and promotion of international labor standards as a…

USE OF THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL IN MACRO-ECONOMICAL ANALYSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin ANGHELACHE

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The article presents the fundamental aspects of the linear regression, as a toolbox which can be used in macroeconomic analyses. The article describes the estimation of the parameters, the statistical tests used, the homoscesasticity and heteroskedasticity. The use of econometrics instrument in macroeconomics is an important factor that guarantees the quality of the models, analyses, results and possible interpretation that can be drawn at this level.

Optimal government policies in models with heterogeneous agents

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Boháček, Radim; Kejak, Michal

-, č. 272 (2005), s. 1-55 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : optimal macroeconomic policy * optimal taxation * distribution of wealth and income Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp272.pdf

Macroeconomic Conditions, Health and Mortality

OpenAIRE

Christopher J. Ruhm

2004-01-01

Although health is conventionally believed to deteriorate during macroeconomic downturns, the empirical evidence supporting this view is quite weak and comes from studies containing methodological shortcomings that are difficult to remedy. Recent research that better controls for many sources of omitted variables bias instead suggests that mortality decreases and physical health improves when the economy temporarily weakens. This partially reflects reductions in external sources of death, suc...

Generic policy in Bulgaria: a policy of failure or success?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Assena Stoimenova

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Generic medicines play a key role in managing the financial resources for pharmaceuticals in every country. This study analysed the generic policy legislative framework in Bulgaria with the aim to identify whether the policy implementation can be considered successful in the light of an international review of such policies introduced in other countries, or on the contrary, it has failed to deliver the main benefits. Legislative analysis, desktop study and macroeconomic overview of the Bulgarian pharmaceutical market were included. The study showed that only 3 out of 11 important policy elements are implemented in the country. Bulgaria has one of the highest shares of generics, an average of 81.39% (volume, for the studied period (2006–2014. However, further research is needed to evaluate the success of the existing generic policy in Bulgaria, as the market share of generic drugs is not the only measure of the policy efficiency.

International trade agreements challenge tobacco and alcohol control policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeigler, Donald W

2006-11-01

This report reviews aspects of trade agreements that challenge tobacco and alcohol control policies. Trade agreements reduce barriers, increase competition, lower prices and promote consumption. Conversely, tobacco and alcohol control measures seek to reduce access and consumption, raise prices and restrict advertising and promotion in order to reduce health and social problems. However, under current and pending international agreements, negotiated by trade experts without public health input, governments and corporations may challenge these protections as constraints on trade. Advocates must recognise the inherent conflicts between free trade and public health and work to exclude alcohol and tobacco from trade agreements. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control has potential to protect tobacco policies and serve as a model for alcohol control.

The Relationship Between Stock Market Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals in the Visegrad Group

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pražák Tomáš

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This study examines the effect of specific macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of selected financial sector companies listed on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange. We investigate the nature of the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. The long‑term causality, tested using the Johansen cointegration test, and the short‑run dynamics between the variables, examined using the VECM model, are explored using quarterly data from the 2005-2014 period. The short‑term causality shows the possibility of time series fluctuations; however a steady state should be achieved in the long‑term. In general, we confirmed that macroeconomic fundamentals had a negative impact on stock prices. The interest rate, which also has a negative impact, is the most prominent predictor of the long‑run developments. We also found very rare examples of macroeconomic variables that explain changes in stock prices within the VECM framework.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices of Swiss Real Estate Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Ligocká

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Stock values of companies listed on stock exchanges could be influenced by many factors. The aim of this article is to examine existence and character of relationship between stock prices of selected Swiss real estate companies and macroeconomic fundamentals (GDP, interest rate, price level. The existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals is tested with the Johansen cointegration. The short run dynamics between the variables is examined by Vector Error Correction modelling and the Granger causality test. During the period 2005 – 2014 we revealed a long‑run equilibrium for five of the six analyzed stocks. We also confirmed that macroeconomic variables and the interest rate in particular, can explain a long-run behavior of stock prices. By contrast, macroeconomic variables are usually short in explanation of short‑run dynamics of stock prices. However, the results differ substantially among the stocks and, hence, they prevent us from drawing any general conclusion for the entire real estate sector in Switzerland.

Modeling of Macroeconomics by a Novel Discrete Nonlinear Fractional Dynamical System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenhua Hu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a new nonlinear economic system with fractional derivative. According to the Jumarie’s definition of fractional derivative, we obtain a discrete fractional nonlinear economic system. Three variables, the gross domestic production, inflation, and unemployment rate, are considered by this nonlinear system. Based on the concrete macroeconomic data of USA, the coefficients of this nonlinear system are estimated by the method of least squares. The application of discrete fractional economic model with linear and nonlinear structure is shown to illustrate the efficiency of modeling the macroeconomic data with discrete fractional dynamical system. The empirical study suggests that the nonlinear discrete fractional dynamical system can describe the actual economic data accurately and predict the future behavior more reasonably than the linear dynamic system. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to investigate other macroeconomic variables of more states.

Essays on financial structure and macroeconomic performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, D.

2006-01-01

In addressing the matter, two essays study the effects of the debt vs. equity dimension of the financial structure on international consumption smoothing and macroeconomic volatility (in particular, economic downturns). Another essay evaluates the role of informal financial institution by looking

Work-life balance policies: challenges and benefits associated with implementing flexitime

OpenAIRE

Downes, Caroline; Koekemoer, Frieda Eileen

2011-01-01

Orientation: Helping employees to balance their work and family lives is a business imperative. Work–life balance policies (like flexitime) aim to support employees to do so. However, implementing these policies is problematic. Research purpose: The aim of this article is to report on the challenges and benefits associated with implementing flexitime as a work–life balance policy. Motivation for the study: Organisations must develop and implement work–life balance policies. This r...

Sustainability transitions in the perspective of ecological macroeconomics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røpke, Inge

2013-01-01

Globally, societies are facing a number of serious environmental, economic and social crises. Although the multiple crises are interrelated, research communities tend to be organised around specific complexes of problems. This paper is intended to contribute to the development of an ecological...... macroeconomics that addresses multiple crises by including insights from different, partly overlapping research communities. The main idea is to explore the usefulness of combining three different system perspectives in the study of sustainability transitions: socio-technical provision systems, distributional...... systems and macroeconomic systems. First, the theoretical concept of sustainability and the different system perspectives are outlined, and then the perspectives are brought together in the discussion of a specific topic that is key to sustainable transition: the need for considerable resources to invest...

Contributing to a green energy economy? A macroeconomic analysis of an energy efficiency program operated by a Swiss utility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yushchenko, Alisa; Patel, Martin Kumar

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Our input–output model allows estimating impacts of energy efficiency programs on GDP and employment in Switzerland. • We provide with a deeper insight into modeling of income impacts of energy savings with regard to input–output method. • Geneva case study demonstrates that energy efficiency programs can have positive macroeconomic impacts in Switzerland. • Our results help to understand how to enhance positive macroeconomic impacts of energy efficiency programs. • We provide policy recommendations for further development of energy efficiency programs. - Abstract: In order to enhance energy efficiency as a pillar of transition to a green energy economy it is important to understand whether and under which conditions energy efficiency programs could have positive economic and social impacts. There are a growing number of studies on macroeconomic impacts of energy efficiency programs for various countries and regions. However, in Switzerland only few evaluations have been performed. The present study evaluates the impacts on GDP and employment of Geneva’s energy efficiency program portfolio éco21 which is operated by the local utility. Two programs aiming for electricity savings in the residential sector are analyzed: Eco-sociales targets social housing and Communs d’immeubles focuses on common spaces in buildings. An input–output model is developed, based on the Swiss input–output table, program administrator data, Swiss, and European statistics. Both impacts of initial expenditure and energy cost savings are evaluated. We estimate and compare the impacts of the two programs and discuss factors that cause differences. Our results show that energy efficiency programs can have positive impacts on GDP and employment. According to our estimates, each Swiss Franc (CHF) spent within the energy efficiency program creates approximately 0.2 CHF of additional GDP compared to the reference case scenario. Net impacts on employment are

The Monetary Policy – Restrictive or Expansive?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Szafarczyk

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The monetary policy plays an important role in macroeconomic policy of government. There is a question concerning type of this policy expansive or restrictive (easy or tidy monetary policy. Unfortunately, we have a lot of criteria. Each of them gives us other answer. So due to equitation of Irving Fisher we have dominantly expansive monetary policy. This same situation exists when we use nominal value of rediscount interest rate of central bank. Opposite result appears when we use real value of this interest rate or level of obligatory reserve. Taking under consideration liquidity on money market we know, that level of interest rate is too high.

Treasury bond volatility and uncertainty about monetary policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

2010-01-01

We show that dispersion-based uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy is the single most important determinant of Treasury bond volatility across all maturities. The link between Treasury bond volatility and uncertainty about macroeconomic variables is much stronger than for the more

Analysis of Budget Deficits and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: A VAR-VECM Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manamba Epaphra

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Aim/purpose - This paper examines the relationship between budget deficits and selected macroeconomic variables in Tanzania for the period spanning from 1966 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses Vector autoregression (VAR - Vector Error Correction Model (VECM and variance decomposition techniques. The Johansen's test is applied to examine the long run relationship among the variables under study. Findings - The Johansen's test of cointegration indicates that the variables are cointegrated and thus have a long run relationship. The results based on the VAR-VECM estimation show that real GDP and exchange rate have a negative and significant relationship with budget deficit whereas inflation, money supply and lending interest rate have a positive one. Variance decomposition results show that variances in the budget deficits are mostly explained by the real GDP, followed by inflation and real exchange rate. Research implications/limitations - Results are very indicative, but highlight the importance of containing inflation and money supply to check their effects on budget deficits over the short run and long-run periods. Also, policy recommendation calls for fiscal authorities in Tanzania to adopt efficient and effective methods of tax collection and public sector spending. Originality/value/contribution - Tanzania has been experiencing budget deficit since the 1970s and that this budget deficit has been blamed for high indebtedness, inflation and poor investment and growth. The paper contributes to the empirical debate on the causal relationship between budget deficits and macroeconomic variables by employing VAR-VECM and variance decomposition approaches.

Electric vehicle (EV) storage supply chain risk and the energy market: A micro and macroeconomic risk management approach

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, Susanna D.

As a cost effective storage technology for renewable energy sources, Electric Vehicles can be integrated into energy grids. Integration must be optimized to ascertain that renewable energy is available through storage when demand exists so that cost of electricity is minimized. Optimization models can address economic risks associated with the EV supply chain- particularly the volatility in availability and cost of critical materials used in the manufacturing of EV motors and batteries. Supply chain risk can reflect itself in a shortage of storage, which can increase the price of electricity. We propose a micro-and macroeconomic framework for managing supply chain risk through utilization of a cost optimization model in combination with risk management strategies at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The study demonstrates how risk from the EVs vehicle critical material supply chain affects manufacturers, smart grid performance, and energy markets qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results illustrate how risk in the EV supply chain affects EV availability and the cost of ancillary services, and how EV critical material supply chain risk can be mitigated through managerial strategies and policy.

Macroeconomic effects of petroleum supply disruptions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, J.D.

1983-01-01

Seven of the eight US recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag of around 3/4 of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum. That this correlation is more than just a coincidence is supported by parametric and nonparametric statistical tests on a variety of US time series and sample periods. Moreover, both the institutional structure of the petroleum industry and the historical timing of key economic events indicate that the oil shocks represented largely exogenous shocks to the US economy. Thus, the data support the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the US recessions prior to 1972. By extension, energy price increases may account for much of post-OPEC macroeconomic performance. Illustrative calculations establish that adjustments of planned investment to historical changes in energy prices, together with Keynesian-multiplier effects associated with unintended inventory accumulation, were of sufficient magnitude to have exerted a major impact on macroeconomic activity throughout the postwar period.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Ebola Virus Disease (Evd: A Contribution to the Empirics of Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Obukohwo Oba Efayena

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The paper addressed the formulation of a macro model to capture the macroeconomic impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD. Previous studies has adopted various models such as the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model, endogenous model and the LINKAGE model, but there is dire need to generate a step-by-step model which will comprehensively capture how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD impacts on macroeconomic variables. Adopting the traditional neoclassical growth model, the model aggregated the various macroeconomic variables as well as captured the epidemic’s strain on each of these variables. The paper also empirically shows that the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD has direct, indirect and deferred indirect cost implications for the economy. Using case studies of countries in Africa, the study evaluated how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD has affected the macroeconomic status of selected economies. The findings imply that there is dire need to control the spread of the deadly plague. The paper contribute immensely to empirical studies in the field of macroeconomics.

BULGARIA’S MULTI-VECTOR FOREIGN POLICY APPROACH TO SECURITY CHALLENGES IN EASTERN EUROPE

Science.gov (United States)

2017-04-06

tenuous than ever with the new controversial Trump administration and the EU nascent foreign policy efforts already failed in handling the challenges...AIR WAR COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY BULGARIA’S MULTI-VECTOR FOREIGN POLICY APPROACH TO SECURITY CHALLENGES IN EASTERN EUROPE by Dimitar Y...the abatement of US interest in Europe, will require wise foreign policy maneuvers to address the changes in the transformed security environment. As

Los precios en la nueva síntesis neoclásica-keynesiana en macroeconomía

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Alexander Tobón

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the role that prices play in the New Neoclassical Synthesis. It is shown that although the New Synthesis emphasizes the importance of having a monetary theory to recommend monetary policies, it essentially offers the same answers on the minor role of prices in static macroeconomics. In spite of this, the New Neoclassical Synthesis has the merit of attempting to return to the pre-Keynesian intuitions of Wicksell, which indeed could contribute to the search for not just better answers, but for new questions regarding prices in a monetary theory.

Impact of Macro-economic Factors on Deposit Formation by Ukrainian Population

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Shevaldina Valentyna H.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The goal of the article is detection of interconnections between the common economic processes and formation of bank deposits by population. The article builds a correlation and regression model of complex assessment of interconnection between macro-economic factors, savings behaviour of population and level of deposits of population in banks for two hour horizons: short-term, which is characterised with deployment of crisis phenomena both in global economy and in Ukrainian economy and the medium-term one. The article characterises the most significant common macro-economic factors. In the result of the study the article establishes that Ukrainian population is oriented at short-term horizon when forming savings due to the uncertainty in future. In the medium-term prospective, savings of the population are formed basically under influence of macro-economic factors, while formation of deposits by Ukrainian population is mostly influenced by socio-psychological factors.

A nonlinear optimal control approach to stabilization of a macroeconomic development model

Science.gov (United States)

Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Sarno, D.

2017-11-01

A nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control approach is proposed for the problem of stabilization of the dynamics of a macroeconomic development model that is known as the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous product cycles. The dynamics of the macroeconomic development model is divided in two parts. The first one describes economic activities in a developed country and the second part describes variation of economic activities in a country under development which tries to modify its production so as to serve the needs of the developed country. The article shows that through control of the macroeconomic model of the developed country, one can finally control the dynamics of the economy in the country under development. The control method through which this is achieved is the nonlinear H-infinity control. The macroeconomic model for the country under development undergoes approximate linearization round a temporary operating point. This is defined at each time instant by the present value of the system's state vector and the last value of the control input vector that was exerted on it. The linearization is based on Taylor series expansion and the computation of the associated Jacobian matrices. For the linearized model an H-infinity feedback controller is computed. The controller's gain is calculated by solving an algebraic Riccati equation at each iteration of the control method. The asymptotic stability of the control approach is proven through Lyapunov analysis. This assures that the state variables of the macroeconomic model of the country under development will finally converge to the designated reference values.

Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land: a case study of Argentina

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wicke, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306645955; Smeets, E.M.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/311445217; Tabeau, A.; Hilbert, J.; Faaij, A.P.C.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2009-01-01

This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural

Macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land—A case study of Argentina

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wicke, Birka; Smeets, E.; Tabeau, Andrzej; Hilbert, Jorge; Faaij, André

2009-01-01

This paper assesses the macroeconomic impacts in terms of GDP, trade balance and employment of large-scale bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land. An input–output model is developed with which the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic impacts of bioenergy production and agricultural

The impact of policy on firms' performance: the case of CNC machine tool industry in India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kumar, A.

2003-01-01

This study is about understanding how the government policy actually works at firm level in the context of developing countries' industrialization. In the literature, the discussions on impact of government policy on corporate performance primarily stress on macroeconomic aspects of industrial

Nurses' perceptions of the challenges related to the Omanization policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Riyami, M; Fischer, I; Lopez, V

2015-12-01

Human resource development has become a major concern in Oman since the inception of the 'Omanization' policy in 1988. The main goal of this policy was to replace the expatriate nursing workforce with similarly qualified local nurses to develop a sustainable workforce and achieve self-reliance. The aim of this study is to explore the nurses' perceptions of Omanization policy. A qualitative research design was used and 16 Omani registered nurses and 26 student nurses were interviewed in depth. Transcribed data were analysed using content analysis. Two main themes emerged from the data: 'Challenges of sustaining the local nursing workforce' and 'Challenges of educational preparation for local nurses'. The participants agreed that Omanization benefited national development, social stability and ensuring local workforce. The challenges faced were cultural and work life balance, preparation of nurses and pace of replacement. The participants were concerned that the pace of replacement could leave behind a marked experience gap. A slow-phased approach to Omanization of the nursing workforce was recommended by the participants. Results obtained from this study reflect the perceptions and voices of student nurses and registered nurses only from the Institute of Nursing and Oman Ministry of Health. A policy of this magnitude requires gradual establishment. The upgrading of the nursing education to degree level, continuous professional development, mentoring and role modeling of expert nurses should be established to prepare local nurses for the localization of the nursing workforce. © 2015 International Council of Nurses.

The Role of the OECD and the EU in the Development of Labour Market Policy in the Czech Republic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Porte, Caroline de la

2009-01-01

This article analyses the role of the OECD through its "Jobs Strategy" and the European Union (EU) through the "European Employment Strategy" in the development of macro-economic, employment and labour market policy in the Czech Republic. As a full member of the two organisations, the Czech...... Republic has been subject to their soft non-binding policy advice in the area of labour market reform. The OECD and EU policy models are similar, both insisting on growth-oriented macro-economic policy, supported by active labour market policies, an active and effective public employment service (PES......) and the de-regulation of labour markets. However, the OECD actively advocates private actor involvement in labour markets, while the EU insists on the role of the public sector. The inquisitive styles of the two organisations differ: the OECD has a decontextualised and quantified analysis of performance...

Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

OpenAIRE

Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, H.S.; Smith, Ronald; Grasl, Tobias

2018-01-01

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term\\ud trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure,\\ud incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects.\\ud We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and\\ud growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current\\ud...

«Turn to the East» Policy: Expectations and Reality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Macroeconomic dynamics, foreign economic relations, reproduction proportions in the Russian economy and the economy of the Russian Far East are analyzed. The author considers sub-global orientation of state economic policy in Russia after 2010. The changing geographic vector of economic policy is analyzed through a modified geographic structure of the expected increase in the country’s export rent, and also through the shift of the center of concentration of resources, which are necessary to form a new pole of growth in the national economy. The author reviews macroeconomic dynamics and analyzes the factors of the cyclical development of the Russian economy. The paper evaluates the dynamics of the geographical structure of foreign markets. The author’s hypothesis suggests that foreign trade interactions are not sufficiently restructured to reconceive economic policies. For this purpose, the institutional integration within the new integration space is of critical importance. The article considers trends and regularities that explain the equilibrium parameters of the economic system of the Russian Far East, as well as the possibility of transition to new equilibrium levels. The author discusses the ratio of investment and institutional factors of modernization and the formation of stable positive macroeconomic and structural dynamics in the region. Based on Russian and foreign scientific literature, I consider the most common interpretations of threats and opportunities for the economic development of the Russian Far East, including the impact of demographic trends, structural improvement, competitive environment factors, institutional innovations. The study discusses the influence of the Chinese «one belt — one way» project on the prospects for implementing the domestic and foreign eastern economic policy of the Russian Federation.

New policy challenges on a changing economic landscape | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2011-01-27

Jan 27, 2011 ... New policy challenges on a changing economic landscape ... Consortium deals with a wide variety of issues, SEP works primarily through four ... strengthen and reform the institutions, rules and customs by which nations and ...

Macroeconomic and industry-specific determinants of Greek bank profitability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zampara, K.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the external factors that influence the profitability of a typical Greek systemic bank over the period 2001 – 2014. Design/Methodology/Approach: A conceptual framework incorporating two fundamental groups of const ructs, namely, macroeconomic forces and industry related factors, was developed. Two constructs were examined in the former: GDP growth rate and unemployment rate, whilst two attributes were explored in the latter; the bank's market share, both in terms of deposits and in terms of assets, and the banking market growth, also both in terms of the market's total assets and total deposits. In order to isolate the effects of the ongoing financial crisis, the research was undertaken for two periods, firstly 2001 to 2014 and secondly, the period 2001 - 2011, which excluded the deep recession. Consequently, multiple regression analysis was conducted and linear models were specified by means of OLS. Findings: The empirical analysis revealed that both macroeconomic forces and industry-related factors affect bank profitability. As far as the macroeconomic factors are concerned, unemployment rate has a negative impact, whereas the GDP growth rate has a positive impact on bank profitability. The industry -related factors, rate of growth of the industry's deposits and bank's assets market share have a positive impact on the financial performance of the bank. Finally, the rate of growth of the industry's assets and the bank's deposits market share have a negative effect on bank profitability. Originality/Value: This study reveals the mechanism determining bank profitability over a recent period that includes the financial crisis. Moreover, understanding the impact of macroeconomic forces as well as industry related attributes on bank profitability may enable banks to focus on the most critical factors in their decision process.

Nigeria; 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Supplement and Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria

OpenAIRE

International Monetary Fund

2008-01-01

The success of Nigeria’s reforms brings new policy challenges for preserving and building on the reform gains. The immediate challenge is to enshrine a fiscal institution that ensures that fiscal policy is consistent with macroeconomic stability. Nigeria’s integration into the global economy brings new challenges for ensuring financial stability. Monetary policy has strengthened. The balance of payments outlook is consistent with external stability. Non-oil sector growth can only be sustained...

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Czech Republic

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Pavel Rezabek

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The paper provides empirical analysis of interactions between monetary and fiscal policy in the Czech Republic and document changes in policy conduct across the time. To this end, we build and estimate a six-variable Bayesian VAR and propose some refinements to the modelling framework. These improvements make it possible to better capture the main features of the economic system populated by both macroeconomic policy authorities. The results point to the lack of complementarity between policy actions adopted by the authorities and suggest that there is still enough room for enhancing the effectiveness of economic policies.

macro-economic assessment of energy visions 2030-2050 by the ADEME - Technical document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Callonnec, G.; Landa, G.; Maillet, P.; Reynes, F.

2013-10-01

After a brief presentation of the energy transition scenario designed by the ADEME and which is based on principles of efficiency and sobriety, and on a largely de-carbonated energy supply, this report presents the ThreeME model (ThreeME stands for macro-economic multi-sector model of assessment of energy and environment policies). It is a neo-Keynesian model which integrates a dynamic interaction between supply and demand. The application of this model to energy transition is discusses as well as the model calibration. Results are then discussed (reference scenario, modelling of the ADEME scenario) and expansionary effects are outlined in terms of household purchasing power, investment, employment, reduction of trade balance deficit, induced effects on GDP, shadow value of carbon, and public finances

Quality of Financial Policies and Financial System Stress

OpenAIRE

Udaibir S Das; Plamen Yossifov; Richard Podpiera; Dmitriy L Rozhkov

2005-01-01

In this paper, we develop multi-country indices of financial system stress and quality of financial policies and use them in regression analysis of the determinants of financial stress. We find that countries with higher quality of financial policies are better able to contain the effects of macroeconomic pressures on the overall level of stress in the financial system. They are also in a better position to ensure sustainable development of the financial system.

Macro-economic effects of additional energy conservation in the European Community

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sips, H.W.; Bakker, L.; Muizelaar, J.; Velthuijsen, J.W.

1991-01-01

The aim of the title study is to evaluate the environmental and economic consequences of additional energy conservation in five Western European countries: the Netherlands, the Federal Republic of Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy. In the first part of the study the economic effects of a policy, in which additional energy conservation is realized only for the Netherlands, is calculated. In this report the results are presented. The calculated results of the economic effects of a coordinated energy conservation policy in the abovementioned countries will be published in a separate report. The effects of three policy variants will be evaluated: the non-financial policy variant, the shift of the financial burden variant, and the variant in which the levies are not compensated.The starting point for the first variant is an autonomous realization of the energy conservation. The basis of the second variant is that an equal amount of energy can be saved by means of a substantial energy levy. The profits of this levy can be used to reduce the financial burden of labour. For the economic calculations use has been made of the HERMES-model. Every member of the European Community has developed such a macro-economic model. In chapter two the different starting points for the calculations are outlined, with special attention to descriptions of the policy variants, the model-input and the basic projection. In chapter three the economic effects of the policy variants are presented and discussed. In chapter four the energy conservation and the environmental effects of the variants are dealt with. The most important conclusion of this study is that a considerable amount of energy can be saved, which will have positive effects on the economy and the environment. 8 figs., 20 tabs., 6 apps., 32 refs

The effects of the global economic crisis on Macedonian economy: Some macroeconomic indicators and future policy recommendations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizabeta Tosheva

2016-01-01

The experiences and lessons taken from the global economic crisis should serve as a basis for changing the current economic model with a new one in order the economy of the country to catch a connection with the intense changes that are expected to occur in the coming period. It is expected that creating new economic model in Republic of Macedonia will result in multiple positive effects that primarily manifested in the increasing number of newly small and medium enterprises, domestic investments, industrial production, GDP, number of new employees and total exports as well as in reduction of the trade deficit in maintaining macroeconomic stability of the country.

CONSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS, FISCAL POLICY RULES, ANDTHECASE OF TURKEY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Osman Nuri ARAS

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Discretionary fiscal policies have arisen because of dominant Keynesianeconomic policies from 1930’s to 1970’s. Public expenditures intensively andexcessively increased in order to ensure macroeconomic stability during thisperiod. Many countries faced the emergence of macroeconomic problems such asaffectively using public resources, budget deficitand inflation. As a result,Keynesian economic policies and the stagnation experienced in following highinflation years have faced economies with stagflation process in the 1970’s.However, Keynesian approach did not solve the problem. Therefore, neweconomic approaches developed for solving the problem. One of the neweconomic approaches was Constitutional Economic Theory. The theory includeseconomic policy rules including fiscal rules as well as monetary rules.Fiscal rules have been one of the main stabilization tools in obtaining budget andpublic finance balance. Many countries have implemented specific fiscal policyrules to struggle with economic instabilities, budget deficits and public financialimbalances.A specific form of fiscal policy rule has been started to implement in Turkey since1999. Several fiscal policy rules have been adoptedin Turkey’s public financialmanagement system as part of the economic program which was conducted withthe collaboration of IMF since 1999. These rules are called as implicit fiscalpolicy rules. These fiscal rules have become a draft legal text in 2010 as “FiscalRule Draft Law”. Although the fiscal rule was planned to start the application period as of 2011, it is delayed to fiscal year 2012 because of some economicreasons

ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anita Mirchandani

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

A Time Series Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Births in Romania in the period 2008-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marușa Beca

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In this article, we studied the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the observed corporate births for the Romanian economy through the Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ADL. We performed a time series analysis that uses monthly data for the period January 2008 – December 2013 in order to establish the impact of the fiscal and monetary policy adopted by the Romanian government in times of economic crisis on the firms’ demography. The corporate birth rate is an endogenous variable in a linear function model with five exogenous macroeconomic variables such as the CPI, the loans ratio to GDP, the FDI, the long term interest rate, tax rate to GDP and the lags of the dependent variable. The main finding is that the variance of the corporate birth rate variable is negatively correlated with the variances of CPI in the current month and the interest rate two months lagged. We also determined that the variance of the dependent variable was positively correlated with the variances of the loans rate two months lagged, tax rate four months ago and FDI two months lagged and FDI in the current period.

Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lancaster, T.D.

1983-01-01

This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

Policy Challenges and Opportunities for Rural Special Education

Science.gov (United States)

Rude, Harvey; Miller, Kevin J.

2018-01-01

This article reviews current developments in state and national policies that affect rural special education. A brief overview of the federal role in rural education is provided, with emphasis on the implications for the provision of special education services in rural communities. A variety of challenges are identified, including (a) the variable…

The Role of Accounting and Accounting Law in Establishing Public Economic Policies in the Post-crisis Period

OpenAIRE

Aurelian Virgil BĂLUŢĂ

2012-01-01

The following issues are being adressed in this paper: the relationship of accounting and accounting law with the local economy, the relationship of accounting and accounting law with macroeconomics, establishing public policies for certain categories of enterprises based on information provided by accounting and accounting law, the relationship of accounting and accounting law with macroeconomics foresight and forecast, the relationship of accounting and accounting law with the labor economy...

[The report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health: its relevance to the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean].

Science.gov (United States)

2002-09-01

The Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) was established by the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) to evaluate the role of health in economic development. On 20 December 2001 the CMH submitted its report to the WHO Director-General. Entitled Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development, the CMH report affirms that in order to reduce poverty; and achieve economic development, it is essential to improve the health of the poor; to accomplish this, it is necessary to expand the access that the poor have to essential health services. The Commission believes that more financial resources are needed, that the health expenditures of less-developed and low-income countries are insufficient for the challenges that these countries face, and that high-income countries must increase their financial assistance in order to help solve the main health problems of less-developed and low-income countries. This piece summarizes a report that was prepared by the Program on Public Policy and Health of the Division of Health and Human Development of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). The PAHO document analyzes the importance of the CMH report for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, focusing on some of the central arguments put forth in the CMH report as they relate to achieving better health conditions in the Americas. These arguments have been organized around three major themes in the CMH report: a) the relationships between health and economic growth, b) the principal health problems that affect the poor in low-income and low-middle-income#10; countries, and c) the gap between the funding needed to address the principal problems that affect these countries and the actual spending levels. #10;

Pilot Study: Impact of Computer Simulation on Students' Economic Policy Performance. Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Domazlicky, Bruce; France, Judith

Fiscal and monetary policies taught in macroeconomic principles courses are concepts that might require both lecture and simulation methods. The simulation models, which apply the principles gleened from comparative statistics to a dynamic world, may give students an appreciation for the problems facing policy makers. This paper is a report of a…

a review of selected macroeconomic factors impacting building

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Osondu

2011-09-27

Sep 27, 2011 ... This study therefore investigates the impact of macro-economic indicators on the prices of building ... should maintain stable inflationary trend. Keywords: .... instability in the naira will lead to instability in material prices and ...

Shelter from the Storm: Roles, responsibilities, and challenges in United States housing policy governance.

Science.gov (United States)

Willison, Charley

2017-11-01

Housing is a critical social determinant of health. Housing policy not only affects health by improving housing quality, affordability, and insecurity; housing policy affects health upstream through the politics that shape housing policy design, implementation, and management. These politics, or governance strategies, determine the successes or failures of housing policy programs. This paper is an overview of challenges in housing policy governance in the United States. I examine the important relationship between housing and health, and emphasize why studying housing policy governance matters. I then present three cases of housing governance challenges in the United States, from each pathway by which housing affects health - housing quality, affordability, and insecurity. Each case corresponds to an arm of the TAPIC framework for evaluating governance (Krieger and Higgins) [1], to assess mechanisms of housing governance in each case. While housing governance has come a long way over the past century, political decentralization and the expansion of the submerged state have increased the number of political actors and policy conflict in many areas. This creates inherent challenges for improving accountability, transparency, and policy capacity. In many instances, too, reduced government accountability and transparency increases the risk of harm to the public and lessens governmental integrity. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Financing the response to AIDS: some fiscal and macroeconomic considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Haacker, Markus

2008-07-01

This article examines the international response to AIDS from a fiscal perspective: first the financing of the international response to AIDS, especially the role of external financing, and second, a more comprehensive perspective on the costs of the national response to AIDS relevant for fiscal policy. The second half of the article focuses on the effectiveness of the response to AIDS. We find that there is little basis for concerns about macroeconomic constraints to scaling up, in light of the moderate scale of AIDS-related aid flows relative to overall aid. Regarding sectoral constraints, the picture is more differentiated. Many countries with high prevalence rates have also achieved high rates of access to treatment, but most of these are middle-income countries. Our econometric analysis credits external aid as a key factor that has enabled higher-prevalence countries to cope with the additional demands for health services. At the same time, gross domestic product per capita and health sector capacities are important determinants of access to treatment.

Integrating Mercury Science and Policy in the Marine Context: Challenges and Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Kathleen F.; Evers, David C.; Warner, Kimberly A.; King, Susannah L.; Selin, Noelle E.

2014-01-01

Mercury is a global pollutant and presents policy challenges at local, regional, and global scales. Mercury poses risks to the health of people, fish, and wildlife exposed to elevated levels of mercury, most commonly from the consumption of methylmercury in marine and estuarine fish. The patchwork of current mercury abatement efforts limits the effectiveness of national and multi-national policies. This paper provides an overview of the major policy challenges and opportunities related to mercury in coastal and marine environments, and highlights science and policy linkages of the past several decades. The U.S. policy examples explored here point to the need for a full life cycle approach to mercury policy with a focus on source reduction and increased attention to: (1) the transboundary movement of mercury in air, water, and biota; (2) the coordination of policy efforts across multiple environmental media; (3) the cross-cutting issues related to pollutant interactions, mitigation of legacy sources, and adaptation to elevated mercury via improved communication efforts; and (4) the integration of recent research on human and ecological health effects into benefits analyses for regulatory purposes. Stronger science and policy integration will benefit national and international efforts to prevent, control, and minimize exposure to methylmercury. PMID:22901766

The Effects of Domestic Macroeconomic Determinants on Stock Returns: A Sector Level Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şerife Özlen

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Investment analysis should be carefully performed in stock markets. Therefore, firms take necessary actions according to stock market behavior and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the predictability of stock market determinants becomes important. This study aims to identify the effects of selected macroeconomic factors (interest rate, exchange rates, inflation-consumer price index, current account deficit, unemployment rates and sector indices on stock returns of selected 48 companies in 11 different sectors of Istanbul Stock Exchange including electric, food, communication, paper, chemistry, metal-main, metal-product, stone, textile, commerce and transportation sectors. The study employs ARDL approach on the period between the second month of 2005 and the second month of 2012 including 85 monthly observations. According to the results, Sector Indices are found to be quite influential through the selected sectors. Exchanges rate is also significantly influential on almost all the sectors except Communication and Textile sectors. The impacts of Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Current Account Deficit, and Unemployment Rate are various through the selected sectors. Moreover, the influence of Istanbul Stock Exchange Market on the stock returns of considered companies is significantly clear through the sectors except six companies (two companies from Paper sector, one company from Metal-Main sector, two companies from Stone sector and one company from Textile sector out of 48 companies. Since it includes a wide range of companies and sectors, this study is expected to be useful for all policy makers and investment decisions.

Efficient and Equitable Climate Change Policies

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Socrates Kypreos

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This report describes the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-MACRO, which is a Ramsey-type macroeconomic growth model linked with a technology-rich engineering model of the energy-system and with a stylized sub-model of climate change. TIAM-MACRO contributes to coherent and consistent policy analyses at both the world and regional level and correlates demand for energy services to macro-economic developments across regions and time until the end of the 21st century. With the help of this model, two contrasting scenarios are defined related to the reference development (BASE case and the 2 °C (2DS case that follow long-term policies on climatic change mitigation in the spirit of the Paris agreement. Finally, we define ex-post market and non-market damages together with the damages related to Local Atmospheric Pollutants (LAP. The stringency of the 2DS case requires the complete restructuring of the energy and transport systems to be relying on carbon-free technologies and fuels together with technologies of negative emissions, at high costs. The study concludes that carbon policies not only consist of an insurance against the risk of climate change but also improve the ambient air quality, as they have secondary benefits that compensate for part of the cost of carbon control. However, the stringency of the 2DS case is so demanding that the cost of climate policies is above benefits.

Fiscal deficits, financial fragility, and the effectiveness of government policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kirchner, M.; van Wijnbergen, S.

2012-01-01

Recent macro developments in the euro area have highlighted the interactions between fiscal policy, sovereign debt, and financial fragility. We take a structural macroeconomic model with frictions in the financial intermediation process, in line with recent research, but introduce asset choice and

On the Fundamental Principles of Economic Policy

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Witold Jakóbik

2007-04-01

Full Text Available The article contributes to the debate focused on the institutional principles of policies conducted by the fiscal as well as the monetary authorities. The author offers a brief review of the main relations between the aims of macroeconomic policy and the instruments that enable to fulfill the former. At the same time specific determinants of the aim-oriented decisions by the central bank or the government are reviewed. Last but not least in the analysis is the dilemma of policy mix coordination and the formal/informal status of the government as well as of the central bank is extensively discussed.

The Readability of Principles of Macroeconomics Textbooks

Science.gov (United States)

Tinkler, Sarah; Woods, James

2013-01-01

The authors evaluated principles of macroeconomics textbooks for readability using Coh-Metrix, a computational linguistics tool. Additionally, they conducted an experiment on Amazon's Mechanical Turk Web site in which participants ranked the readability of text samples. There was a wide range of scores on readability indexes both among…

Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

Science.gov (United States)

Samuels, Jon Devin

2012-01-01

The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

The health and health system of South Africa: historical roots of current public health challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Coovadia, Hoosen; Jewkes, Rachel; Barron, Peter; Sanders, David; McIntyre, Diane

2009-09-05

The roots of a dysfunctional health system and the collision of the epidemics of communicable and non-communicable diseases in South Africa can be found in policies from periods of the country's history, from colonial subjugation, apartheid dispossession, to the post-apartheid period. Racial and gender discrimination, the migrant labour system, the destruction of family life, vast income inequalities, and extreme violence have all formed part of South Africa's troubled past, and all have inexorably affected health and health services. In 1994, when apartheid ended, the health system faced massive challenges, many of which still persist. Macroeconomic policies, fostering growth rather than redistribution, contributed to the persistence of economic disparities between races despite a large expansion in social grants. The public health system has been transformed into an integrated, comprehensive national service, but failures in leadership and stewardship and weak management have led to inadequate implementation of what are often good policies. Pivotal facets of primary health care are not in place and there is a substantial human resources crisis facing the health sector. The HIV epidemic has contributed to and accelerated these challenges. All of these factors need to be addressed by the new government if health is to be improved and the Millennium Development Goals achieved in South Africa.

TOPICAL ISSUES OF DIVERSIFIED POLICY AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY OF AZERBAIJAN

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M. Y. Guliyev

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract. It is revealed that the sharp drop in oil prices demonstrated the existing problems in oil-producing countries and created a situation of weakening the economic stability of the Republic of Azerbaijan. It is established that sustainability of economy is the modern challenge for oil-producing countries of the CIS. The results of the analysis of the macroeconomic situation in the Republic of Azerbaijan on the basis of which it is confirmed that Russia is the largest trade and economic partner of Azerbaijan are given. It is proved that a diversified economy has the highest degree of stability, which is why diversification is today one of the main directions of economic policy of Azerbaijan. It is proved that industrial policy and import substitution should be adequate to global challenges.In order to increase the export potential of Azerbaijan, growth of production of competitive import-substituting products, attraction of foreign investment suggested the formation of technology parks and industrial districts based on new technology using incentives of supply, demand and market promotion of products of highest priority from the point of view of ensuring economic stability of the industries. To implement the specific strategic goals for sustainable development the use of mechanism of project financing is proposed. 

The Impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices Revisited: Evidence from Indian Data

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Pramod Kumar NAIK

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The study investigates the relationships between the Indian stock market index (BSE Sensex and five macroeconomic variables, namely, industrial production index, wholesale price index, money supply, treasury bills rates and exchange rates over the period 1994:04–2011:06. Johansen’s co-integration and vector error correction model have been applied to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic variables. The analysis reveals that macroeconomic variables and the stock market index are co-integrated and, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. It is observed that the stock prices positively relate to the money supply and industrial production but negatively relate to inflation. The exchange rate and the short-term interest rate are found to be insignificant in determining stock prices. In the Granger causality sense, macroeconomic variable causes the stock prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. There is bidirectional causality exists between industrial production and stock prices whereas, unidirectional causality from money supply to stock price, stock price to inflation and interest rates to stock prices are found.

Effectiveness of State-Level Policies on Solar Market Development in Different State Contexts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steward, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Doris, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krasko, V. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hillman, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2014-02-01

In response to public interest in customer-sited distributed solar photovoltaics (PV), state and local policymakers have implemented policy initiatives with the goal of encouraging private investment and building a robust PV market. Policymakers face challenges, including limited budgets and incomplete information about the effectiveness of the various policy options in their specific situation, in crafting and executing policy that supports market development goals. Recent work investigated the effect of the order in which policies are implemented (referred to as 'policy stacking') and the presence of low-cost enabling policies, such as interconnection standards and net metering, can have on the success of states in promoting PV markets. Findings indicate that implementation of interconnection standards and policy related to the valuation of excess electricity (e.g., net metering), along with indicators of long term government support for a solar PV market (e.g., RPS) and a non-policy determinant (population), explain about 70% of the variation among states in new PV capacity. This paper builds on that research to determine the most effective policy strategies for different types of states, as determined by their physical, demographic and macroeconomic context. A number of researchers have investigated the effectiveness of state-level policy using various statistical methods to determine relationships between installed solar PV projects and policy initiatives. In this study, the grouping of states by non-policy factors adds dimension to these analyses by identifying how policies function in different non-policy environments.

The Relationship between Housing Finance and Macroeconomics Variables in Malaysia

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Binti Mohd Shukor Nur Baizura

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Housing finance is one of the factors that contribute in the overall economy growth of the country. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship of housing finance variable and the macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. By adopting time series technique of Vector Auto regression (VAR and Impulse Response to determine the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic and housing finance variable. The cointegration result shows that there exists a long run relationship between the macroeconomic variable and housing finance variable. The finding from impulse response function indicates that Gross Domestic Product (GDP response positively to the Primary Mortgage Market (PMM, which shows that during the good economy there are more housing loan extends by the banking institution. Meanwhile, interest rate response negatively to Secondary Mortgage Market (SMM, which implies that during the financial crisis, more housing loan sold to the Secondary Mortgage Market as one of the measure by the government to increase liquidity in banking institutions. As a conclusion, there is presence of relationship between the variable which change in one variable will affect the other variable in the long run.

Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

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BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

2016-01-01

1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

Macroeconomic Stability and Its Impact on the Economic Growth of the Country

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatiana Vasylieva

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this research is to study the role and impact force of macroeconomic stability on economic growth in the period from 2000 to 2016, using the modified Cobb–Douglas production function. The results of Global Competitiveness Report, published by World Economic Forum, demonstrated that at the existing level of economic growth in Ukraine the basic drivers for improvement of the country's competitiveness are necessary to be considered for building of the production function. Basing on the analysis performed, the author created odified Cobb–Douglas production function where Macroeconomic stability, openness of the economy and foreign direct investments are used as additional explanatory variables of Cobb–Douglas production function. Obtained findings indicate the high level of compliance of the built model with the initial data. Herewith, the assessment of the elasticity of macroeconomic stability is positive and statistically significant.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wilke, Ralf

2017-01-01

Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision-making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual-level statistical analysis...... to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual-level...

Essays on systematic and unsystematic monetary and fiscal policies

OpenAIRE

Cimadomo, Jacopo

2008-01-01

The active use of macroeconomic policies to smooth economic fluctuations and, as aconsequence, the stance that policymakers should adopt over the business cycle, remaincontroversial issues in the economic literature.In the light of the dramatic experience of the early 1930s’ Great Depression, Keynes (1936)argued that the market mechanism could not be relied upon to spontaneously recover froma slump, and advocated counter-cyclical public spending and monetary policy to stimulatedemand. Albeit ...

TTI Phase 2 Institutional Support: Centre for Policy Dialogue | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

CPD's research agenda covers a wide variety of areas, including macroeconomic analysis, agricultural and rural development, trade, investment promotion, and climate change. It receives its funding ... For CPD, this project will help enhance its research quality, organizational performance, and policy engagement. Centre of ...

Ethical challenges facing veterinary professionals in Ireland: results from Policy Delphi with vignette methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Magalhães-Sant'Ana, M.; More, S. J.; Morton, D. B.; Hanlon, A.

2016-01-01

Ethics is key to the integrity of the veterinary profession. Despite its importance, there is a lack of applied research on the range of ethical challenges faced by veterinarians. A three round Policy Delphi with vignette methodology was used to record the diversity of views on ethical challenges faced by veterinary professionals in Ireland. Forty experts, comprising veterinary practitioners, inspectors and nurses, accepted to participate. In round 1, twenty vignettes describing a variety of ethically challenging veterinary scenarios were ranked in terms of ethical acceptability, reputational risk and perceived standards of practice. Round 2 aimed at characterising challenges where future policy development or professional guidance was deemed to be needed. In round 3, possible solutions to key challenges were explored. Results suggest that current rules and regulations are insufficient to ensure best veterinary practices and that a collective approach is needed to harness workable solutions for the identified ethical challenges. Challenges pertaining mostly to the food chain seem to require enforcement measures whereas softer measures that promote professional discretion were preferred to address challenges dealing with veterinary clinical services. These findings can support veterinary representative bodies, advisory committees and regulatory authorities in their decision making, policy and regulation. PMID:27613779

Science–policy challenges for biodiversity, public health and urbanization: examples from Belgium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keune, H; De Blust, G; Van den Berge, K; Brosens, D; Van Herzele, A; Simoens, I; Kretsch, C; Gilbert, M; Linard, C; Flandroy, L; Versteirt, V; Hartig, T; De Keersmaecker, L; Eggermont, H; Dessein, J; Vanwambeke, S; Prieur-Richard, A H; Wittmer, H; Martens, P; Mathijs, E

2013-01-01

Internationally, the importance of a coordinated effort to protect both biodiversity and public health is more and more recognized. These issues are often concentrated or particularly challenging in urban areas, and therefore on-going urbanization worldwide raises particular issues both for the conservation of living natural resources and for population health strategies. These challenges include significant difficulties associated with sustainable management of urban ecosystems, urban development planning, social cohesion and public health. An important element of the challenge is the need to interface between different forms of knowledge and different actors from science and policy. We illustrate this with examples from Belgium, showcasing concrete cases of human–nature interaction. To better tackle these challenges, since 2011, actors in science, policy and the broader Belgian society have launched a number of initiatives to deal in a more integrated manner with combined biodiversity and public health challenges in the face of ongoing urbanization. This emerging community of practice in Belgium exemplifies the importance of interfacing at different levels. (1) Bridges must be built between science and the complex biodiversity/ecosystem–human/public health–urbanization phenomena. (2) Bridges between different professional communities and disciplines are urgently needed. (3) Closer collaboration between science and policy, and between science and societal practice is needed. Moreover, within each of these communities closer collaboration between specialized sections is needed. (letter)

The Growth and Stabilization Properties of Fiscal Policy in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Sohrab Rafiq

2013-01-01

This paper examines the size of the fiscal multiplier values generated in Malaysia. The results show that a government spending shock leads to broad positive economic effects. Although, the effectiveness of fiscal policy alters across macroeconomic states. The estimates show that since the Asian financial crisis the medium- and long-run effect of fiscal policy spending has declined. Some of this is down to greater credit availability and less investment spending.

MONETARY POLICY FORCE EFFECT BY MEANS OF BANKS MONEY CREATION

OpenAIRE

Victoria COCIUG; Olga TIMOFEI

2014-01-01

In the context of modern economy, banks play an essential role for sustainable growth, by ensuring economy with financial resources and driving impulses of monetary policy to economy. Monetary authorities influence significantly the bank's ability to fulfill this role. Thus, to achieve macroeconomic objectives, there is promoted particular monetary policy and are implemented various practical regulations for banks. In this article, we want to identify the existing relationship between monetar...

Asymmetric impacts of international energy shocks on macroeconomic activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, Fang-Yu; Hu, Jin-Li; Lin, Cheng-Hsun

2012-01-01

While limited by its scarcity of natural resources, the impacts of energy price changes on Taiwan's economic activities have been an important issue for social public and government authorities. This study applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the effects of various international energy price shocks on Taiwan's macroeconomic activity. By separating energy price changes into the so-called decrease and increase regimes, we can realize different impacts of energy price changes and their shocks on economic output. The results confirm that there is an asymmetric threshold effect for the energy-output nexus. The optimal threshold levels are exactly where the oil price change is at 2.48%, the natural gas price change is at 0.66%, and the coal price change is at 0.25%. The impulse response analysis suggests that oil price and natural gas shocks have a delayed negative impact on macroeconomic activities. - Highlights: ► This study applies multivariate threshold model to investigate the effects of various international energy price shocks on Taiwan's macroeconomic activity. ► The results confirm that there is an asymmetric threshold effect for energy-output nexus. ► The optimal threshold levels are exactly found where oil price change is at 2.48%, natural gas price change is at 0.66%, and coal price change is at 0.25%.

Challenges for policy mix in the context

OpenAIRE

Stawska, Joanna; Grzesiak, Lena

2015-01-01

The aim of this article is to present the essence of policy mix and the extraordinary actions undertaken by the monetary and fiscal authorities in Poland in response to the recent financial crisis. In the article, the hypothesis has been put forward that the challenges faced by monetary and fiscal authorities have contributed to carrying out coordinated actions, especially in support of economic growth during the recent financial crisis. As a result, in Poland during the last f...

Entropy, recycling and macroeconomics of water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Karakatsanis, Georgios; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2014-05-01

We propose a macroeconomic model for water quantity and quality supply multipliers derived by water recycling (Karakatsanis et al. 2013). Macroeconomic models that incorporate natural resource conservation have become increasingly important (European Commission et al. 2012). In addition, as an estimated 80% of globally used freshwater is not reused (United Nations 2012), under increasing population trends, water recycling becomes a solution of high priority. Recycling of water resources creates two major conservation effects: (1) conservation of water in reservoirs and aquifers and (2) conservation of ecosystem carrying capacity due to wastewater flux reduction. Statistical distribution properties of the recycling efficiencies -on both water quantity and quality- for each sector are of vital economic importance. Uncertainty and complexity of water reuse in sectors are statistically quantified by entropy. High entropy of recycling efficiency values signifies greater efficiency dispersion; which -in turn- may indicate the need for additional infrastructure for the statistical distribution's both shifting and concentration towards higher efficiencies that lead to higher supply multipliers. Keywords: Entropy, water recycling, water supply multipliers, conservation, recycling efficiencies, macroeconomics References 1. European Commission (EC), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), United Nations (UN) and World Bank (2012), System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework (White cover publication), United Nations Statistics Division 2. Karakatsanis, G., N. Mamassis, D. Koutsoyiannis and A. Efstratiades (2013), Entropy and reliability of water use via a statistical approach of scarcity, 5th EGU Leonardo Conference - Hydrofractals 2013 - STAHY '13, Kos Island, Greece, European Geosciences Union, International Association of Hydrological Sciences

Net Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Shocks and Reserve Assets. The Case of Argentina (1994-2013

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Luis N. Lanteri

2014-06-01

Full Text Available International reserves have been used as a source of protection against the vulnerability of the balance of payments, or alternatively, as an attempt to keep a competitive real exchange rate and to promote exports. This paper explores the correlation between the net capital flows and reserves. Similarly, the impact of some macroeconomic shocks on that variable is assessed. Estimates are carried out through both, the VEC (Vector Error Correction models and quarterly data of the Argentine economy for the period 1994-2013. Results show a negative correlation between international reserves and net capital flows (reserve accumulation through current account surpluses. At the same time, the expansionary fiscal policies and the continuing and widespread price increases would adversely affect the reserves.

The Resource Structure of the Potential of Economic Development and Growth of Wealth of the Modern Macroeconomic Systems

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Silantiev Oleh I.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The publication is aimed at researching the features of formation and structure of economic potential of the economic development of modern macroeconomic systems. The research used the structural-functional, systemic, integral and logical approaches together with the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction. A formalization of the resource structure of the potential of economic development of modern macroeconomic systems with allocation of defining (mandatory kinds of resources (wealth and clarification of their (its specifics in the concrete historical conditions of society’s living was carried out. The bases of identification of essence and structure of the economic potential of development of the modern macroeconomic systems are clarified by its kinds. The factors of strategic influence on the process of formation of the economic development potential of the modern macroeconomic systems were researched. The value of the carried out research is the improved theoretical approaches to understanding the essence and structure of both the economic potential and the economic development potential of macroeconomic systems. Prospects for further research are the in-depth analysis of the individual components of the resource structure of the economic development potential of macroeconomic systems, especially the imperative types of wealth.

A Panel Data Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Firms’ Shares Performance in Nigeria

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Michael S. Ogunmuyiwa

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on whether the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the stock market is positive or negative or of no effect by analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and performance of quoted firms on the Nigeria Stock Exchange market. A sample of fifty (50 quoted firms across eight (8 major sectors of the market was selected for the study. The static panel regression technique was employed on monthly data sourced from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN between 2007:1 and 2013:12. Results from empirical findings reveal that varying impacts exist between the macroeconomic indicators and firm share returns in Nigeria. It goes further to affirm that inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate are the major significant macroeconomic indicators driving firm share returns in Nigeria.

Three essays in agent-based macroeconomics

OpenAIRE

Canzian, Giulia

2009-01-01

The dissertation is aimed at offering an insight into the agent-based methodology and its possible application to the macroeconomic analysis. Relying on this methodology, I deal with three different issues concerning heterogeneity of economic agents, bounded rationality and interaction. Specifically, the first chapter is devoted to describe the distinctive characteristics of agent-based economics and its advantages-disadvantages. In the second chapter I propose a credit market framework c...

Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey

OpenAIRE

Markus K. Brunnermeier; Thomas M. Eisenbach; Yuliy Sannikov

2012-01-01

This article surveys the macroeconomic implications of financial frictions. Financial frictions lead to persistence and when combined with illiquidity to non-linear amplification effects. Risk is endogenous and liquidity spirals cause financial instability. Increasing margins further restrict leverage and exacerbate downturns. A demand for liquid assets and a role for money emerges. The market outcome is generically not even constrained efficient and the issuance of government debt can lead t...

The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Wren-Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard D

2010-11-01

Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Macroeconomics in an open economy.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, R N

1986-09-12

The customary treatment of national economies as closed and self-contained must be substantially modified to allow for those economies that typically trade goods, services, and securities with other countries in increasing volume. Open economy macroeconomics is essential to understanding the major events of the U.S. economy over the past half dozen years. Both the sharp rise in the dollar and the unprecedentedly large U.S. trade deficit are linked to the U.S. budget deficit, as is the drop in the rate of inflation.

Test of arbitrage pricing theory using macroeconomic variables

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Eyerusalem

variables; namely, exchange rate, an index of industrial production, nominal money supply ... Key Words: Arbitrage Pricing, Macroeconomic variables, Stock Market ... or theoretical market indices, where sensitivity to changes in each factor is represented ... Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Volume XXI, No 1, April 2012. 3.

Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Volatility : Theory and Evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huizinga, H.P.; Zhu, D.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a simple model capturing differences between debt and equity finance to examine how financial structure matters for macroeconomic volatility. Debt finance is relatively cheap in the sense that debt holders need to verify relatively few profitability states, but debt finance may

Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong

2014-01-01

Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.

The macroeconomic consequences of controlling greenhouse gases: a survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boero, Gianna; Clarke, Rosemary; Winters, L.A.

1991-01-01

This is the summary of a major report which provides a survey of existing estimates of the macroeconomic consequences of controlling greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). There are broadly speaking two main questions. What are the consequences of global warming for economic activity and welfare? What, if any, are the economic consequences of reducing the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? This survey covers only those studies which quantify the overall (macroeconomic) costs of abating greenhouse gas emissions. It is not concerned with whether any particular degree of abatement is sufficient to reduce global warming, nor whether it is worth undertaking in the light of its benefits. These are topics for other researchers and other papers. Here we are concerned only to map the relationship between economic welfare and GHG abatement. (author)

Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-11-01

Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Aspectos macroeconómicos del plan nacional de desarrollo cambio para construir la paz Macroeconomic aspects of the development plan change to reach peace

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Rhenals M. Remberto

1999-06-01

Full Text Available En el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo "Cambio para construir la Paz" se presenta una plitica de estabilizacion que pretende establecer los equlibrios macroeconomicos y elevar el ritmo de crecimiento de la economia colombiana. Este articulo analiza la propuesta de politica economica del plan, incluida en la seccion "Macroeconomia, crecimiento y empleo". En particular se estudia la estrategia de estabilizacion y crecmiento de la economia. Las principales conclusiones de nuestro analisis son: a el ajuste fiscal propuesto es poco efectivo porque no reduce de forma importante el gasto corriente. Esto puede afectar el crecimiento normal de la economia porque se reduce la inversion publica y no se reasignan fondos hacia areas prioritarias como la formacion de capital humano y la investigacion en ciencia y tecnologia; y b el programa macroecnomico tiene problemas de consistencia. Segun nuestras estimaciones, el lento crecimiento del ahorro domestico seria insuficiente para mantener un crecimiento sostenido del Pib.The economic and social planning project in Colombia, 'Change to reach peace' presents mainly a stabilization policy that intends to restore macroeconomic equilibrium and also pretends to increase the economic growth in the presidential period of 1998-2002. This article analyses the economic policy proposal included in the section "Macroeconomics,growth and employment". More precisely it is concerned in the stabilization and growth strategy. Ourmain conclusions are: a fiscal adjustment is not effective, becauseit does not reduce government consumption. This situation can affect potential economic growth due to a decrease in public investment and there will not be a reallocation of resources for human capital and investment in research and development; b macroeconomic plan is not consistent. Based on our estimations, slow growth of domestic saving could not be enough to maintain a sustainable process of economic growth.

A tale of trade-offs: the impact of macroeconomic factors on environmental concern.

Science.gov (United States)

Conroy, Stephen J; Emerson, Tisha L N

2014-12-01

We test whether macroeconomic conditions affect individuals' willingness to pay for environmental quality improvements. Improvements in environmental quality, like everything, come at a cost. Individuals facing difficult economic times may be less willing to make trade-offs required for improvements in environmental quality. Using somewhat different methodologies and shorter time frames, prior investigations have generally found a direct relationship between willingness to pay for environmental improvements and macroeconomic conditions. We use a nearly 40-year span (27 periods) of the General Social Survey (1974-2012) to estimate attitudes toward environmental spending while controlling for U.S. macroeconomic conditions and respondent-specific factors such as age, gender, marital status, number of children, residential location, educational attainment, personal financial condition, political party affiliation and ideology. Macroeconomic conditions include one-year lagged controls for the unemployment rate, the rate of economic growth (percentage change in real GDP), and an indicator for whether the U.S. economy was experiencing a recession. We find that, in general, when economic conditions are unfavorable (i.e., during a recession, or with higher unemployment, or lower GDP growth), respondents are more likely to believe the U.S. is spending too much on "improving and protecting the environment". Interacting lagged macroeconomic controls with respondent's income, we find that these views are at least partially offset by the respondent's own economic condition (i.e., their own real income). Our findings are consistent with the notion that environmental quality is a normal, or procyclical good, i.e., that environmental spending should rise when the economy is expanding and fall during economic contractions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social limitations of maize farmers' adaptation to neoliberal policy reform in Mexico

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groenewald, S.F.; Niehof, A.

2015-01-01

This article highlights the interfaces between micro-level livelihoods, social networks, and macroeconomic trends and policies. Specifically, it analyzes the role of farmer groups in livelihood adaptation of smallholder maize producers in southern Mexico. We show how neoliberal market changes have

The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana-Maria SĂNDICĂ

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to make an analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic mechanisms of propagation of shocks in the Romanian economy based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE that is based on optimizing behaviour of economic agents, using micro-foundations incorporating nominal rigidities in prices and wages. The model developed is Neo-Keynesian type model and is described based on the Christiano et al (2005 and Smets and Wouters (2003. It incorporates persistence in consumption, sticky prices and wages in Calvo sense, costs of adjustment of investment, variable capacity utilization and fixed costs in production. The model takes into account also the liquidity constraints consumers - rule of thumb, element introduced by Galí et al (2007. Another assumption of the model is the consideration of imports as an input in production, under the approach of McCallum and Nelson (2001. Changes over the standard dynamic stochastic equilibrium are related to inflation inertia generated by the learning process. An innovative element is the consideration of two monetary regimes considering adopting inflation targeting strategy in Romania in August 2005. Structural break is explicitly considered by considering two sub-samples and the estimation process of parameters is in two stages similar to the approach proposed by Jakab (2008.

Two Different Views on Monetary Policy Impact: The New Consensus and Post-Keynesian Economics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius-Corneliu Marinas

2007-09-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to make a synthesis of the differences between two new macroeconomic views. A New Consensus has arisen among neoclassical and New-Keynesian economists, such as Romer, Taylor and Walsh. This new view seeks to redefine the application of monetary policy by re-specifying the most appropriate monetary rule, which is used for inflation targeting. The framework of the monetary policy impact requires the usage of a expectations augmented Phillips curve, characterized through the lack of trade-off inflation-unemployment in the long-run. Post-keynesian macroeconomic critical, whose promoters are Arestis, Lavoie and Satterfield, argues that for most of the production levels obtained output change has no effect on inflation. This is a re-formulation of the Keynesian aggregate supply curve, which is entirely horizontal.

The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Liobikienė, Genovaitė; Butkus, Mindaugas

2018-06-18

Climate change policy confronts with many challenges and opportunities. Thus the aim of this study was to analyse the impact of gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP), trade, foreign direct investment (hereinafter FDI), energy efficiency (hereinafter EF) and renewable energy (hereinafter RE) consumption on greenhouse gas (hereinafter GHG) emissions in 1990-2013 and reveal the main challenges and opportunities of climate policy for which policy makers should take the most attention under different stages of economic development. The results showed that the economic growth significantly contributed to the increase of GHG emissions and remains the main challenge in all groups of countries. Analysing the trade impact on pollution, the results revealed that the growth of export (hereinafter EX) significantly reduced GHG emissions only in high income countries. However, the export remains a challenge in low income countries. FDI insignificantly determined the changes in GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Meanwhile, energy efficiency and share of renewable energy consumption are the main opportunities of climate change policy because they reduce the GHG emissions in all groups of countries. Thus, technological processes, the increase of energy efficiency and the shift from carbon to renewable energy sources are the main tools implementing the climate change policy in all countries despite the different stage of economic development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Business failures, macroeconomic risk and the effect of recessions on long-run growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Santoro, Emiliano; Gaffeo, Edoardo

2009-01-01

relationship between transitory disturbances and productivity growth. Panel ECM estimates suggest that macroeconomic risk factors impinge on business failures on the same direction both in the short and in the long-run, and that the adjustment to the steady-state relationship is quite slow. Thus, our findings...... lend support to the risk-aversion theory of productivity growth and indicate that bankruptcy risks play a significant role in the propagation of macroeconomic shocks....

Demographics and macroeconomic effects in aesthetic surgery in the UK.

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, C O; Ho-Asjoe, M; Hittinger, R; Nishikawa, H; Waterhouse, N; Coghlan, B; Jones, B

2004-09-01

Media interest in aesthetic surgery is substantial and suggestions of demographic changes such as reductions in age or an increase in the number of male patients are common. In spite of this, there is no peer reviewed literature reporting demographics of a contemporary large patient cohort or of the effect of macroeconomic indicators on aesthetic surgery in the UK. In this study, computer records 13006 patients presenting between 1998 and the first quarter of 2003 at a significant aesthetic surgery centre were analysed for procedures undergone, patient age and sex. Male to female ratios for each procedure were calculated and a comparison was made between unit activity and macroeconomic indicators. The results showed that there has been no significant demographic change in the procedures studied with patient age and male to female ratio remaining constant throughout the period studied for each procedure. Comparison with macroeconomic indicators suggested increasing demand for aesthetic surgery in spite of a global recession. In conclusion, media reports of large scale demographic shifts in aesthetic surgery patients are exaggerated. The stability of unit activity in spite of falling national economic indicators suggested that some units in the UK might be relatively immune to economic vagaries. The implications for training are discussed.

Class Size Reduction: Great Hopes, Great Challenges. Policy Brief.

Science.gov (United States)

WestEd, San Francisco, CA.

This policy brief examines the benefits and the challenges that accompany class-size reduction (CSR). It suggests that when designing CSR programs, states should carefully assess specific circumstances in their schools as they adopt or modify CSR efforts to avoid the unintended consequences that some programs have experienced. Some of the…

China's wind power industry: Policy support, technological achievements, and emerging challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zhongying; Qin, Haiyan; Lewis, Joanna I.

2012-01-01

Since 2005 the Chinese wind power technology industry has developed rapidly, with China becoming the largest installer of wind power capacity in the world in 2010. This paper reviews the policy system implemented in China to support the wind power industry, centered on China's 2005 Renewable Energy Law. It examines the industry's achievements over the past two decades, including the development of wind power technology and equipment, the utilization of China's wind power resources, and the cost reductions achieved. It then explores the obstacles affecting the ongoing sustainability of the Chinese wind industry, including regulatory barriers, grid integration challenges, and challenges to continued technological innovation. It recommends that integration challenges be addressed through policy reforms, establishing interconnection standards, and creating predictability with forecasting and storage; that market signals be established with long-term development goals and pricing reforms; and that industry limitations be addressed with targeted R and D, improved wind resource assessment and transparency, domestic and international collaborations, and the cultivation of a skilled workforce. - Highlights: ► Review the policy system and the achievements of Chinese wind industry. ► Analyze the obstacles affecting the sustainability of the industry. ► Provide recommendations for how China can address these obstacles.

Macroeconomic conditions and health: Inspecting the transmission mechanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Colombo, Emilio; Rotondi, Valentina; Stanca, Luca

2018-02-01

We study the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and self-reported health in a large sample of Italian individuals, focusing on the mediating role played by health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, eating habits) and economic stress. Our findings indicate that, overall, higher local unemployment is negatively related to individuals' health conditions. A one percentage point increase in the province-level unemployment rate is associated with a significant increase in the probability of experiencing diabetes (0.03 percentage points), infarction (0.01), ulcer (0.06), cirrhosis (0.01) and nervous disorders (0.07), with a time lag that differs across individual health conditions. Employment status and educational level play a significant role as moderators of these relationships. Eating habits, in addition to economic stress, play a key role as mediators, by enhancing the negative relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health outcomes, while physical exercise is found to play a dampening role. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Macroeconomic impacts of natural gas introduction in Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caloghirou, Y.D.; Mourelatos, A.G.; Roboli, A.

1996-01-01

Input-output analysis has been applied to assess macroeconomic impacts of investment expenditures required for introduction of natural gas (NG) into the Greek energy system. The final demand vector was assembled from figures estimated in a prefeasibility study. A 12 x 12 input-output table was used to calculate relative changes in gross domestic product (GDP) for the entire economy, sectoral production and value-added, employment and wages. We show that construction of the national gas grid will significantly affect all five macroeconomic indicators during a period of eight years. Taking into account direct and indirect impacts, GDP will rise by 2.0% whereas employment and wages will increase by 1.6%. If imports are fully replaced by local produce, GDP will rise by 3.0% whereas employment and wages will increase by 2.4 and 2.3%, respectively. The relative change of production for five specified sectors is greater than 24% during the period 1993-2000. (Author)

European Communities environmental and fiscal policies: Effects on Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golinelli, R.; Mantovani, D.

1992-01-01

The macro-economic effects of the introduction in Italy of a new tax on energy uses are: higher price inflation, lower income growth and higher Government revenue. The same effects are expected for a VAT harmonization. In order to curb these negative effects, this paper proposes the introduction of an alternative policy mix

Work–life balance policies: Challenges and benefits associated with implementing flexitime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Downes

2011-10-01

Research purpose: The aim of this article is to report on the challenges and benefits associated with implementing flexitime as a work–life balance policy. Motivation for the study: Organisations must develop and implement work–life balance policies. This requires human resource practitioners to investigate and understand experiences and perceptions about the challenges and benefits of flexitime. Research design, approach and method: The researcher used a qualitative research design with an exploratory approach. She drew a nonprobability purposive and voluntary sample (n = 15 from the financial sector. She used semi-structured in-depth interviews to collect the data and conducted content analyses to analyse and interpret them. Main findings: The researcher extracted four main themes (individual and general challenges, the aspects organisations need to implement flexitime effectively and the benefits that would follow its implementation from the data. Its benefits vary from work–life balance to employee loyalty and commitment. Some challenges are maintaining productivity, a shortage of critical resources and understanding flexitime. Practical/managerial implications: The research identified requirements that human resource practitioners should attend to in order to ensure that organisations use flexitime more effectively. Contribution/value-add: The researcher obtained unique findings about the minimum requirements for implementing flexitime effectively. They could assist organisations to address the challenges that employees face.

Macroeconomic perspectives on the Danish economy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben M.; Hougaard Jensen, Svend E.; Risager, Ole

A guide to major economic policy issues in Denmark. Leading Danish and international economists discuss, in comparative conte×t, the Danish economy's performance in the last 40 years, and assess the challenges which Denmark in common with other small, open economies faces in the global economy...... today. Major features include the continuing of academic analysis with policy making e×perience and e×pertise, and the e×amination of topical issues including the impact of EMU on "outsider" nations....

Macroeconomics and Human Development, by Deepak Nayyar

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Cristiana Ioana ŞERBĂNEL

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Microeconomics and Human Development pursue to tackle both negative and positive effects of macroeconomics on human development and vice-versa through a series of external and internal factors. The book consists in a series of articles published in a prestigious publication: Journal of Human Development and Capabilities. The authors have a perennial echo in the economic field.

MONETARY POLICY FORCE EFFECT BY MEANS OF BANKS MONEY CREATION

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Victoria COCIUG

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In the context of modern economy, banks play an essential role for sustainable growth, by ensuring economy with financial resources and driving impulses of monetary policy to economy. Monetary authorities influence significantly the bank's ability to fulfill this role. Thus, to achieve macroeconomic objectives, there is promoted particular monetary policy and are implemented various practical regulations for banks. In this article, we want to identify the existing relationship between monetary policy followed by the authorities and the ability of banks to create money with its impact on various practical regulations.

A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

Chaos: Challenges from and to socio-spatial form and policy

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Dimitrios S. Dendrinos

1997-01-01

Full Text Available A brief assessment is given of the major accomplishments made through the mathematics of chaos to the understanding of socio-spatial dynamics to date. Certain shortfalls are also presented, mostly associated with model testing and falsifiability which transcend socio-spatial dynamics. Beyond such shortcomings, lie an array of challenges for chaotic dynamics involving specifically socio-spatial form and policy. A few directions on meeting these challenges are suggested including the case of limited chaos.

ENERGY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE PRESENT CHALLENGES TO THE EUROPEAN COMMON SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY

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Gabriel ANDRUSEAC

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The Common Security and Defence Policy is a part of the European Union’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP and establishes the policy framework for the institutional structures and military instruments which have to deal with the security challenges in Europe’s geopolitical neighborhood. The article aims to identify and analyze the role of energy as one of the present challenges to the European Common Security and Defence Policy in the context of the recent events in the world economy.

New directions in stabilisation policies

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Ralf Fendel

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Recently, a new class of macroeconomic business cycle models has emerged. Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models with rational expectations originally employed by RBC researchers are combined with nominal rigidities and imperfect competition traditionally highlighted by New Keynesian economists. This class of models leads to a new paradigm in business cycle theory and stabilization policies. The paper presents the main characteristics and implications of the new class of models in a predominantly non-technical way. In order to highlight the progress connected with the new class of models, it puts them into the context of former debates on stabilization policy, such as the Phillips curve dispute.

Testing Non-Stationarity in Selected Macroeconomic Series from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study tested stationarity in a selected set of macroeconomic variables (some constructed) from Sudan over the period 1969 to 1998. Augmented Dickey Fuller tests were employed to test for presence of unit roots. The study found that unit roots existed in most variables, namely, private investment, public investment, real ...

Do financial variables help predict the macroeconomic environment?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Havránek, T.; Horváth, R.; Matějů, Jakub

2011-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 2 (2011), s. 14-17 ISSN 1803-7089 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : macroeconomic environment * monetary restriction * financial system Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cnb.cz/miranda2/export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/erb/download/ERB_No2_2011.pdf

Water and sanitation policies in Argentina: the challenge of universalizing services

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Verónica L. Cáceres

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This article is aimed at contributing to the reflection and debate on the water and sanitation policies in Argentina. For this purpose, regulatory and institutional aspects are discussed regarding services management in the country. The paper also includes a characterization of the five stages of such policies that have marked the progress of the sector. Finally, the main challenges faced by the sector are mentioned as a conclusion.

Credible enough? Forward guidance and perceived National Bank of Poland’s policy rule

OpenAIRE

Baranowski, Paweł; Gajewski, Paweł

2015-01-01

Credible forward guidance should bring down the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using a micro-level dataset we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters and find evidence for forward guidance credibility.

Temporary oil production, current account deterioration and the role of monetary and fiscal policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvie, C.

1992-01-01

This paper extends earlier work on the macroeconomic adjustment processes arising for an economy experiencing a temporary period of oil production. Emphasis is placed on developments in the current account, as reflected in foreign asset stock movements, after oil production ceases, as well as on the role that monetary, fiscal or fiscal/monetary policy can play in influencing current-account developments during this same period. The results presented suggest that, to improve the performance of the current account, irrespective of the wage adjustment mechanism operative, after oil production ceases, the major thrust of macroeconomic policy should operate through fiscal rather than monetary policy. However developments in non-oil output would be influenced by the wage adjustment mechanism. With wage indexation, a tight fiscal policy after oil production ceases leads to a higher level of non-oil output than in the no policy response case, or one where monetary policy alone is used. With no wage indexation, the use of monetary and/or fiscal policy leads to lower levels of non-oil output. The use of fiscal policy also has the added benefit of contributing to a lower consumer price level, again irrespective of the operative wage adjustment mechanism. If the emphasis of policy operates through monetary policy, irrespective of the wage adjustment mechanism, the current-account problem will be exacerbated since foreign assets stocks will be lower. In addition, non-oil output and consumer prices will be lower. (Author)

La absorción de la macroeconomía por la microeconomía

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Ghislain Deleplace

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to analyze the dominant tendency in the history of macroeconomics. It attempts to identify the two routes that research on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics has followed. On the one hand, the relation between employment, wages and inflation (the route indicated by Friedman; on the other hand, the existence of rigidities or a monetary restriction (the route indicated by Clower.

Employment and other macroeconomic benefits of an innovation-led climate strategy for the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laitner, S.; Bernow, S.; DeCicco, J.

1998-01-01

Climate protection policy and its analysis are pursued in the context of other social goals, among them the maintenance of economic growth and high employment. Too often, however, analysis of energy and climate policy does not realistically reflect technological conditions and the dynamics of technological change. This tendency unnecessarily associates the decline in energy consumption or carbon emissions with the decline in national economic output or income. But there is ample prima facie evidence to the contrary. Just as in the 19th century when the perceived need to reduce labor inputs as part of the production process spurred labor-saving technological progress, now the need to reduce energy (and pollution) costs could spur innovation and diffusion of efficient and clean energy technologies. This, in turn, can increase overall growth in economic productivity. Energy technology analysts have identified many such existing and near-term commercial technologies, as well as innovations that can be foreseen beyond the immediate technological horizon, which would become widely used if policies were developed to overcome market and institutional barriers. This paper presents a macroeconomic analysis for a set of policies that would induce the adoption of more efficient and low-carbon technologies, and finds that overall employment and economic output could be increased by small amounts while significantly reducing carbon emissions. (Author)

Employment and other macroeconomic benefits of an innovation-led climate strategy for the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laitner, S. [US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Bernow, S. [Tellus Institute, Boston, MA (United States); DeCicco, J. [American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington, DC (United States)

1998-04-01

Climate protection policy and its analysis are pursued in the context of other social goals, among them the maintenance of economic growth and high employment. Too often, however, analysis of energy and climate policy does not realistically reflect technological conditions and the dynamics of technological change. This tendency unnecessarily associates the decline in energy consumption or carbon emissions with the decline in national economic output or income. But there is ample prima facie evidence to the contrary. Just as in the 19th century when the perceived need to reduce labor inputs as part of the production process spurred labor-saving technological progress, now the need to reduce energy (and pollution) costs could spur innovation and diffusion of efficient and clean energy technologies. This, in turn, can increase overall growth in economic productivity. Energy technology analysts have identified many such existing and near-term commercial technologies, as well as innovations that can be foreseen beyond the immediate technological horizon, which would become widely used if policies were developed to overcome market and institutional barriers. This paper presents a macroeconomic analysis for a set of policies that would induce the adoption of more efficient and low-carbon technologies, and finds that overall employment and economic output could be increased by small amounts while significantly reducing carbon emissions. (Author)

Photovoltaics: New Policy Challenges for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sousa, Luís de

2013-01-01

After the turn of the century governments across Europe set in place a series of programmes to expand investment on grid-connected solar power technology, especially photovoltaics (PV). But in face of rapidly declining costs most of these programmes have been tapered in recent months. Using a simple cost model this article shows that PV technologies can indeed supply electricity to the grid for less than 0.10 €/kWh in large swaths of the continent, apparently justifying this policy change. However, the roll back of fixed rates to PV suppliers will likely result in a market structure close to perfect competition, where profits are not expectable and the price should fall towards marginal generation cost: 0 €/kWh. Due to the scalable nature of PV, many consumers in Europe are now able to produce their own electricity at a cost considerably lower than the rates demanded by grid utilities. Investment on PV is thus set to continue in spite of recent policy changes, but henceforth on off-the-grid systems, conceived for self consumption. Long term this trend presents serious challenges to utilities and traditional electricity suppliers, putting at stake the existing electricity market framework.

Photovoltaics: New Policy Challenges for Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sousa, Luís de, E-mail: luis.a.de.sousa@gmail.com [Resource Centre for Environmental Technologies (CRTE), Public Research Centre (CRP) Henri Tudor, Esch-sur-Alzette (Luxembourg)

2013-12-09

After the turn of the century governments across Europe set in place a series of programmes to expand investment on grid-connected solar power technology, especially photovoltaics (PV). But in face of rapidly declining costs most of these programmes have been tapered in recent months. Using a simple cost model this article shows that PV technologies can indeed supply electricity to the grid for less than 0.10 €/kWh in large swaths of the continent, apparently justifying this policy change. However, the roll back of fixed rates to PV suppliers will likely result in a market structure close to perfect competition, where profits are not expectable and the price should fall towards marginal generation cost: 0 €/kWh. Due to the scalable nature of PV, many consumers in Europe are now able to produce their own electricity at a cost considerably lower than the rates demanded by grid utilities. Investment on PV is thus set to continue in spite of recent policy changes, but henceforth on off-the-grid systems, conceived for self consumption. Long term this trend presents serious challenges to utilities and traditional electricity suppliers, putting at stake the existing electricity market framework.

AMNESTY IN THE NIGER DELTA: VERTICAL MOVEMENT ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

OLAWUYI

federal government, the Niger Delta communities claim that they are entitled to ... instability, macroeconomic challenges, inconsistent policy regimes to ..... continues they cannot threaten the stability of the country nor affect its continued.

A kinetic approach to some quasi-linear laws of macroeconomics

Science.gov (United States)

Gligor, M.; Ignat, M.

2002-11-01

Some previous works have presented the data on wealth and income distributions in developed countries and have found that the great majority of population is described by an exponential distribution, which results in idea that the kinetic approach could be adequate to describe this empirical evidence. The aim of our paper is to extend this framework by developing a systematic kinetic approach of the socio-economic systems and to explain how linear laws, modelling correlations between macroeconomic variables, may arise in this context. Firstly we construct the Boltzmann kinetic equation for an idealised system composed by many individuals (workers, officers, business men, etc.), each of them getting a certain income and spending money for their needs. To each individual a certain time variable amount of money is associated this meaning him/her phase space coordinate. In this way the exponential distribution of money in a closed economy is explicitly found. The extension of this result, including states near the equilibrium, give us the possibility to take into account the regular increase of the total amount of money, according to the modern economic theories. The Kubo-Green-Onsager linear response theory leads us to a set of linear equations between some macroeconomic variables. Finally, the validity of such laws is discussed in relation with the time reversal symmetry and is tested empirically using some macroeconomic time series.

An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Bryan

1976-01-01

Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

Teaching Macroeconomics after the Crisis: A Survey among Undergraduate Instructors in Europe and the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Gärtner, Manfred; Griesbach, Björn; Jung, Florian

2013-01-01

The Great Recession raised questions of what and how macroeconomists teach at academic institutions around the globe, and what changes in the macroeconomics curriculum should be made. The authors conducted a survey of undergraduate macroeconomics instructors affiliated with colleges and universities in Europe and the United States at the end of…

Post-Keynesian alternative policies to curb macroeconomic imbalances in the Euro area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hein Eckhard

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we outline alternative post-Keynesian policy recommendations addressing the problems of differential inflation, divergence in competitiveness and associated current account imbalances within the Euro area. We provide a basic framework in order to systematically address the related issues making use of Anthony P. Thirlwall’s (1979, 2002 model of a “balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate” (BPCGR. Based on this framework, we outline the required stance for alternative economic policies and then we discuss the implications for alternative monetary, wage/incomes and fiscal policies in the Euro area as a whole, as well as the consequences for structural and regional policies in the Euro area periphery, in particular.

Credible enough? Forward guidance and per-ceived National Bank of Poland’s policy rule

OpenAIRE

Pawel Baranowski; Pawel Gajewski

2015-01-01

Credible forward guidance should reduce the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using a micro-level dataset we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters and find evidence for forward guidance credibility.

Addressing the Challenges in Tonsillectomy Research to Inform Health Care Policy: A Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandavia, Rishi; Schilder, Anne G M; Dimitriadis, Panagiotis A; Mossialos, Elias

2017-09-01

Eighty-five percent of investment in medical research has been wasted, with lack of effect on clinical practice and policy. There is increasing effort to improve the likelihood of research being used to influence clinical practice and policy. Tonsillectomy is one of the most common otorhinolaryngologic surgical procedures, and its frequency, cost, and morbidity create a clear need for evidence-based guidelines and policy. The first systematic review on tonsillectomy was conducted 40 years ago and highlighted the lack of definitive evidence for the procedure. Since that study, the body of evidence has still not been able to sufficiently inform policy. This review provides an overview of the key challenges in research to inform tonsillectomy policy and recommendations to help bridge the evidence-policy gap. The challenges in using research to inform policy can be summarized as 4 main themes: (1) non-policy-focused evidence and lack of available evidence, (2) quality of evidence, (3) communication of research findings, and (4) coordinating time frames. Researchers and decision makers should be aware of the limitations of research designs and conflicts of interest that can undermine policy decisions. Researchers must work with decision makers and patients throughout the research process to identify areas of unmet need and political priority, align research and policy time frames, and disseminate research findings. Incentives for researchers should be reorganized to promote dissemination of findings. It is important to consider why evidence gaps in tonsillectomy research have not been addressed during the past 40 years despite considerable investment in time and resources. These findings and recommendations will help produce research that is more responsive to policy gaps and more likely to result in policy changes.

Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

2015-01-01

Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related

Gates to retirement and gender differences: Macroeconomic conditions, job satisfaction, and age.

Science.gov (United States)

Axelrad, Hila; Mcnamara, Tay K

2017-08-04

The different pathways out of the labor force have been the focus of many recent studies, yet not enough scholarly attention has been paid to the effect of country-level, individual, and job characteristics and their potentially different influence across genders. The current article examines the relationships between retirement decisions and macroeconomic conditions, personal characteristics, and job satisfaction, while focusing on gender differences. Data came from 16,337 respondents in 13 European countries that participated in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We find that the relative importance of macroeconomic conditions and job satisfaction differs by gender.

The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Benjamin M.

2013-01-01

The standard workhorse models of monetary policy now commonly in use, both for teaching macro-economics to students and for supporting policymaking within many central banks, are incapable of incorporating the most widely accepted accounts of how the 2007-9 financial crisis occurred and are incapable too of analyzing the actions that monetary…

Communicating Geosciences with Policy-makers: a Grand Challenge for Academia

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, W. J.; Walls, M. R.; Boland, M. A.

2015-12-01

Geoscientists interested in the broader societal impacts of their research can make a meaningful contribution to policy making in our changing world. Nevertheless, policy and public decision making are the least frequently cited Broader Impacts in proposals and funded projects within NSF's Geosciences Directorate. Academic institutions can play a lead role by introducing this societal dimension of our profession to beginning students, and by enabling interdisciplinary research and promoting communication pathways for experienced career geoscientists. Within the academic environment, the public interface of the geosciences can be presented through curriculum content and creative programs. These include undergraduate minors in economics or public policy designed for scientists and engineers, and internships with policy makers. Federal research institutions and other organizations provide valuable policy-relevant experiences for students. Academic institutions have the key freedom of mission to tackle interdisciplinary research challenges at the interface of geoscience and policy. They develop long-standing relationships with research partners, including national laboratories and state geological surveys, whose work may support policy development and analysis at local, state, regional, and national levels. CSM's Payne Institute for Earth Resources awards mini-grants for teams of researchers to develop collaborative research efforts between engineering/science and policy researchers. Current work in the areas of nuclear generation and the costs of climate policy and on policy alternatives for capturing fugitive methane emissions are examples of work at the interface between the geosciences and public policy. With academic engagement, geoscientists can steward their intellectual output when non-scientists translate geoscience information and concepts into action through public policies.

Exploring the association between macroeconomic indicators and dialysis mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Anneke; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Stengel, Benedicte; Elliott, Robert F; Covic, Adrian; Geue, Claudia; Cusumano, Ana; Macleod, Alison M; Jager, Kitty J

2012-10-01

Mortality on dialysis varies greatly worldwide, with patient-level factors explaining only a small part of this variation. The aim of this study was to examine the association of national-level macroeconomic indicators with the mortality of incident dialysis populations and explore potential explanations through renal service indicators, incidence of dialysis, and characteristics of the dialysis population. Aggregated unadjusted survival probabilities were obtained from 22 renal registries worldwide for patients starting dialysis in 2003-2005. General population age and health, macroeconomic indices, and renal service organization data were collected from secondary sources and questionnaires. Linear modeling with log-log transformation of the outcome variable was applied to establish factors associated with survival on dialysis. Two-year survival on dialysis ranged from 62.3% in Iceland to 89.8% in Romania. A higher gross domestic product per capita (hazard ratio=1.02 per 1000 US dollar increase), a higher percentage of gross domestic product spent on healthcare (1.10 per percent increase), and a higher intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population (i.e., general population-derived mortality risk of the dialysis population in that country standardized for age and sex; hazard ratio=1.04 per death per 10,000 person years) were associated with a higher mortality of the dialysis population. The incidence of dialysis and renal service indicators were not associated with mortality on dialysis. Macroeconomic factors and the intrinsic mortality of the dialysis population are associated with international differences in the mortality on dialysis. Renal service organizational factors and incidence of dialysis seem less important.

Macroeconomic Dynamics of Assets, Leverage and Trust

Science.gov (United States)

Rozendaal, Jeroen C.; Malevergne, Yannick; Sornette, Didier

A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of economic growth, and how credit may be associated with both economic performance and confidence. Our first notable finding is the mechanism of reward/penalty associated with patience, as quantified by the return on assets. In regular economies where the EBITA/Assets ratio is larger than the cost of debt, starting with a trust higher than leverage results in the highest long-term return on assets (which can be seen as a proxy for economic growth). Therefore, patient economies that first build trust and then increase leverage are positively rewarded. Our second main finding concerns a recommendation for the reaction of a central bank to an external shock that affects negatively the economic growth. We find that late policy intervention in the model economy results in the highest long-term return on assets. However, this comes at the cost of suffering longer from the crisis until the intervention occurs. The phenomenon that late intervention is most effective to attain a high long-term return on assets can be ascribed to the fact that postponing intervention allows trust to increase first, and it is most effective to intervene when trust is high. These results are derived from two fundamental assumptions underlying our model: (a) trust tends to increase when it is above leverage; (b) economic agents learn optimally to adjust debt for a given level of trust and amount of assets. Using a Markov Switching Model for the EBITA/Assets ratio, we have successfully calibrated our model to the empirical data of the return on equity of the EURO STOXX 50 for the time period 2000-2013. We find that dynamics of leverage and trust can be highly nonmonotonous with curved trajectories, as a result of the nonlinear coupling between the variables. This

The challenge of carbon dioxide removal for EU policy-making

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Vivian; Geden, Oliver

2018-05-01

Most scenarios to meet the Paris Agreement require negative emissions technologies. The EU has assumed a global leadership role in mitigation action and low-carbon energy technology development and deployment, but carbon dioxide removal presents a serious challenge to its low-carbon policy paradigm and experience.

Introducing Valuation Effects-Based External Balance Analysis into the Undergraduate Macroeconomics Curricula: A Simple Framework with Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Brust, Peter; Jayakumar, Vivekanand

2012-01-01

Global imbalances and the sustainability of large U.S. current account deficits have dominated international macroeconomics of late. Pedagogically, a clear disconnect exists between graduate-level open-economy macroeconomics that emphasizes intertemporal current account models and net foreign asset adjustment featuring valuation effects, and,…

Including the monetary part in macro accounting: A ‘modern’ approach to the macroeconomic accounting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Onur TUTULMAZ

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Economic output is placed at the heart of the macroeconomics. To calculate the output one needs to achieve simplifying a high level complexity of economic relationships to form a system. On the flip side, the model should be enough elaborated to be able to reflect the important relationships. In this manner, the classical macroeconomic identity as Keynes suggested is simple enough to understand the main elements but it does not show the financial parts of transactions. Not having the monetary part of the economy it lacks the coherence. With the financial and economic crises getting more frequent, more endeavour to build a more inclusive and coherent macroeconomic system has been observed. However, there are large variety in different options of simplifying and simulating complex relationships among the real and monetary part of the modern economies.  Our paper tries to set an analysis comparing some of the recent prominent ideas in building balance sheet and transaction flow matrix in regard to macroeconomic accounting system. We can conclude the new achievement of including the monetary transactions in the frame causes a compromise from the simplicity for a coherent and more complete picture of macro economy.

E-learning policies, practices and challenges in two Norwegian organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Welle-Strand, Anne; Thune, Taran

2003-05-01

This article reports a pilot study on the uses of technology to enable learning within a formal educational setting in a higher education institution and within a corporation. These two Norwegian cases were selected due to their commitment to technology-enabled learning, as expressed in policy and strategy documents. The aim was to investigate the commitment and actual use of information and communications technology (ICT) for learning as well as what key actors think are the major challenges for successful large scale implementation of ICT for learning. The findings indicate that there is insufficient follow-up on e-learning policies and that there is a general lack of strategic direction and leadership in this area. The key challenges respondents highlight relate to the need for a systematic and pedagogical approach to e-learning in which three equally important considerations must be balanced: organization, pedagogy and technology. Key perspectives of a coherent pedagogical and organizational framework for planning e-learning are discussed.

The Role of the OECD and the EU in the Development of Labour Market Policy in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Anne de la Porte

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This article analyses the role of the OECD through its “Jobs Strategy” and the European Union (EU through the “European Employment Strategy” in the development of macro-economic, employment and labour market policy in the Czech Republic. As a full member of the two organisations, the Czech Republic has been subject to their soft non-binding policy advice in the area of labour market reform. The OECD and EU policy models are similar, both insisting on growth-oriented macro-economic policy, supported by active labour market policies, an active and effective public employment service (PES and the de-regulation of labour markets. However, the OECD actively advocates private actor involvement in labour markets, while the EU insists on the role of the public sector. The inquisitive styles of the two organisations differ: the OECD has a decontextualised and quantified analysis of performance accompanied by a supportive in-depth qualitative analysis, while the EU has a more contextualised analysis, which is also more politicised. However, the EU’s policy is partially supported by European structural funds, while the OECD has no comparable instrument. Despite some differences in policy model and inquisitive style, both the OECD and the EU have given the same major policy recommendations over time to the Czech Republic, although the OECD has insisted more on de-regulation, whereas the EU has also emphasised worker security and anti-discrimination. In macro-economic policy, de-regulation and increasing flexibility on the labour market, the Czech Republic conforms with OECD and EU policy models and recommendations. The PES has been developed institutionally to fit both models. However, activation, shifts in expenditure from passive to active labour market policy, training and placement of the PES have not changed substantially since the Czech Republic became member of the EU, suggesting that the real impact of the OECD and the EU has been weak.

Jamaica is Without a National Sexual Harassment Policy: Challenges, Consequences, Health Problems and the Need for a National Policy Framework

OpenAIRE

R. Peters; P.A. Bourne

2012-01-01

Humans are sexual as they are physical beings. Simply put, sexual relations are embedded in their composition and so legislations are needed to protect vulnerable groups such as children, poor, women, orphans, elderly, mentally and physically disabled people and adolescents from sexual exploitations. The current study will explore why Jamaica needs a national sexual harassment policy, the challenges without a policy and the difficulties in formulating a policy in such a highly sexed culture. ...

International Monetary Policy Coordination in a New Keynesian Model with NICE Features

Science.gov (United States)

Poutineau, Jean-Christophe; Vermandel, Gauthier

2018-01-01

The authors provide a static two-country new Keynesian model to teach two related questions in international macroeconomics: the international transmission of unilateral monetary policy decisions and the gains coming from the coordination monetary rules. They concentrate on "normal times" and use a thoroughly graphical approach to…

The Vietnamese lending rate, policy-related rate, and monetary policy post-1997 Asian financial crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chu V. Nguyen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Asymmetries in the Vietnamese lending central bank’s policy-related rate spread were documented. Empirical results revealed that the spread adjusts to the threshold faster when the central bank’s policy-related rates decrease relative to the lending rates than when the central bank’s policy-related rates move in the opposite direction. Additionally, the empirical findings indicate that Vietnamese commercial banks exhibit competitive rate setting behavior which may be attributable to graft maximization by bank’s management. The results also show bidirectional Granger causality between the Vietnamese lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate, indicating that the lending rate and the central bank’s policy-related rate affect each other’s movements. These results suggest that monetary authority can use its countercyclical monetary policy instruments to achieve its macroeconomics objectives. However, the estimation results of the GARCH (2, 3-in-Mean model suggest that they should intervene more frequently and by small policy measures to minimize the conditional variance of the spread to minimize the magnitude of the cycle of the lending rate.

Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

OpenAIRE

Christopher D Carroll

2002-01-01

Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional foreca...

A study on the effect of macroeconomic variables and firm ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A study on the effect of macroeconomic variables and firm characteristics on the quality of financial reporting of listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL ...

Oil-Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hegerty Scott W.

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.

SOUTH AFRICA’S MACROECONOMIC RESILIENCE TO EXTERNALSHOCKS: A COMPARISON TO ITS BRICS PARTNERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry J. Cockeran

2016-01-01

Full Text Available South Africa has to address the challenges of slow economic growth, poverty, andinequality in the face of precarious macroeconomic imbalances—foreign capitalfunds deficits of savings to investment, of tax income to government spending,and of exports to imports. Just how susceptible is the South African economy toan external shock? This paper extends a ‘resilience indicator’ developed by Rojas-Suarez (2015 and applies it to the case of South Africa. Such an indicator wasconstructed for South Africa and the other BRICS economies. Thevaluesfor theperiod2000–2014were compared, and it was found that South Africa has becomeless resilient to an external shock during this period than its BRICS partners.South Africa is, therefore, more vulnerable to an external shock than the otherBRICS economies.

Trying to Assess the Quality of Macroeconomic Data – the Case of Swiss Labour Productivity Growth as an Example

OpenAIRE

Hartwig, Jochen

2007-01-01

Macroeconomic data are indispensable for modern governance, yet it is often unclear how reliable these data are. The production process of macroeconomic data inside the statistical offices is often not very transparent for the general public. Bystanders usually have no choice but to take for granted the published data because criteria by which to judge data quality are wanting. Hoping to contribute to a better understanding of the quality of macroeconomic data, this paper proposes several pla...

The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks. A nonlinear VAR approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, Sajjadur; Serletis, Apostolos

2010-01-01

In this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity, using monthly data for the United States, over the period from 1983:1 to 2008:12. In doing so, we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (VAR), as detailed in Terasvirta and Anderson (1992) and Weise (1999), and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes (high and low), using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable. We isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996) and Weise (1999), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables. Our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil, oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output, it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks. (author)

The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks. A nonlinear VAR approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahman, Sajjadur [Department of Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon (Canada); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary (Canada)

2010-11-15

In this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity, using monthly data for the United States, over the period from 1983:1 to 2008:12. In doing so, we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (VAR), as detailed in Terasvirta and Anderson (1992) and Weise (1999), and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes (high and low), using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable. We isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996) and Weise (1999), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables. Our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil, oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output, it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks. (author)

Stakeholder engagement in policy development: challenges and opportunities for human genomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemke, Amy A; Harris-Wai, Julie N

2015-12-01

Along with rapid advances in human genomics, policies governing genomic data and clinical technologies have proliferated. Stakeholder engagement is widely lauded as an important methodology for improving clinical, scientific, and public health policy decision making. The purpose of this paper is to examine how stakeholder engagement is used to develop policies in genomics research and public health areas, as well as to identify future priorities for conducting evidence-based stakeholder engagements. We focus on exemplars in biobanking and newborn screening to illustrate a variety of current stakeholder engagement in policy-making efforts. Each setting provides an important context for examining the methods of obtaining and integrating informed stakeholder voices into the policy-making process. While many organizations have an interest in engaging stakeholders with regard to genomic policy issues, there is broad divergence with respect to the stakeholders involved, the purpose of engagements, when stakeholders are engaged during policy development, methods of engagement, and the outcomes reported. Stakeholder engagement in genomics policy development is still at a nascent stage. Several challenges of using stakeholder engagement as a tool for genomics policy development remain, and little evidence regarding how to best incorporate stakeholder feedback into policy-making processes is currently available.

Job satisfaction in the European union: the role of macroeconomic, personal, and job-related factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Augner, Christoph

2015-03-01

Job satisfaction is influenced by many factors. Most of them are attributed to personality or company features. Little research has been conducted identifying the relationship of job satisfaction with macroeconomic parameters. We used data collected by European Commission (Eurostat, Eurofound) and World Health Organization (WHO) for personal (eg, subjective health, physical activity), company (eg, career advancement perspectives, negative health effects of work), or macroeconomic parameters (eg, Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate) on state level. Correlation analysis and a stepwise linear regression model were obtained. Gross domestic product (GDP) was the best predictor for job satisfaction across the European Union member states ahead of good career perspectives, and WHO-5 score (depressive symptoms). Beside personal, job-related, and organizational factors that influence job satisfaction, the macroeconomic perspective has to be considered, too.

How the macroeconomic context impacts on attitudes to immigration: Evidence from within-country variation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruist, Joakim

2016-11-01

This study investigates the effects of the macroeconomic context on attitudes to immigration. Earlier studies do in some cases not provide significant empirical support for the existence of important such effects. In this article it is argued that this lack of consistent evidence is mainly due to the cross-national setup of these studies being vulnerable to estimation bias caused by country-specific factors. The present study instead analyzes attitude variation within countries over time. The results provide firm empirical support in favor of macroeconomic variation importantly affecting attitudes to immigration. As an illustration, the estimates indicate that the number of individuals in the average European country in 2012 who were against all immigration from poorer countries outside Europe was 40% higher than it would have been if macroeconomic conditions in that year had been as good as they were in 2006. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exit, voice, and loyalty in the Italian public health service: macroeconomic and corporate implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Ippolito, Adelaide; Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

2013-01-01

The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon.

Exit, Voice, and Loyalty in the Italian Public Health Service: Macroeconomic and Corporate Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Impagliazzo, Cira; Zoccoli, Paola

2013-01-01

The paper analyses how customers of public health organizations can express their dissatisfaction for the services offered to them. The main aim is to evaluate the effects that possible dissatisfaction of Italian public health service customers can have on public health organizations. We adopted the methodological scheme developed by Hirschman with exit, voice, and loyalty, considering the macroeconomic and corporate implications that it causes for Italian public health organizations. The study investigated the effects developed by exit of the patients on the system of financing of local health authorities considering both the corporate level of analysis and the macroeconomic level. As a result, local health authority management is encouraged to pay greater attention to the exit phenomena through the adoption of tools that promote loyalty, such as the promotion of voice, even if exit is not promoting, at a macroeconomic level, considerable attention to this phenomenon. PMID:24348148

Beyond stimulus versus austerity: pluralist capacity building in macroeconomics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

I.P. van Staveren (Irene)

2017-01-01

markdownabstract_In this article a pluralist teaching method in macroeconomics is explained with examples. It demonstrates why pluralist macro teaching is important and that it is feasible even at the introductory level. It shows how it can be carried out using five key economic theories: social

Impacts of Government Debt, the Exchange Rate and Other Macroeconomic Variables on Aggregate Output in Croatia

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Yu Hsing

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Applying aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis and based on a quarterly sample during 2000.Q4–2015.Q4, this paper finds that Croatia’s aggregate output is positively associated with government debt as percent of GDP during 2000.Q4–2008.Q4, real appreciation of the kuna, the real stock price, German real GDP, the real oil price and real wages and negatively influenced by government debt as percent of GDP during 2009.Q1–2015.Q4, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. The dynamic relationships between real GDP and government debt as percent of GDP suggest that fiscal discipline needs to be exercised in pursuing expansionary macroeconomic policy in the future.

Effects of the application of targeting the exchange rate policy in Macedonia

OpenAIRE

Nikoloski, Krume; Paceskoski, Vlatko; Panova, Sanja

2016-01-01

The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary in...

Is the gap between micro- and macroeconomic assessments in health care well understood? The case of vaccination and potential remedies.

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Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Connolly, Mark P

2014-01-01

Vaccination is an established intervention that reduces the burden and prevents the spread of infectious diseases. Investing in vaccination is known to offer a wide range of economic and intangible benefits that can potentiate gains for the individual and for society. The discipline of economics provides us with microeconomic and macroeconomic methods for evaluating the economic gains attributed to health status changes. However, the observed gap between micro and macro estimates attributed to health presents challenges to our understanding of health-related productivity changes and, consequently, economic benefits. The gap suggests that the manner in which health-related productive output is quantified in microeconomic models might not adequately reflect the broader economic benefit. We propose that there is a transitional domain that links the micro- and macroeconomic improvement attributed to health status changes. Currently available economic evaluation methods typically omit these consequences, however; they may be adjusted to integrate these transitional consequences. In practical terms, this may give rise to multipliers to apply toward indirect costs to account for the broader macroeconomic benefits linked to changes in health status. In addition, it is possible to consider that different medical conditions and health care interventions may pose different multiplying effects, suggesting that the manner in which resources are allocated within health services gives rise to variation in the amount of the micro-macro gap. An interesting way to move forward in integrating the micro- and macro-level assessment might be by integrating computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as part of the evaluation framework, as was recently performed for pandemic flu and malaria vaccination.

Data sharing policy design for consortia: challenges for sustainability.

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Kaye, Jane; Hawkins, Naomi

2014-01-01

The field of human genomics has led advances in the sharing of data with a view to facilitating translation of research into innovations for human health. This change in scientific practice has been implemented through new policy developed by many principal investigators, project managers and funders, which has ultimately led to new forms of practice and innovative governance models for data sharing. Here, we examine the development of the governance of data sharing in genomics, and explore some of the key challenges associated with the design and implementation of these policies. We examine how the incremental nature of policy design, the perennial problem of consent, the gridlock caused by multiple and overlapping access systems, the administrative burden and the problems with incentives and acknowledgment all have an impact on the potential for data sharing to be maximized. We conclude by proposing ways in which the scientific community can address these problems, to improve the sustainability of data sharing into the future.

Threats to Inclusive Education in Lesotho: An Overview of Policy and Implementation Challenges

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Mosia, Paseka Andrew

2014-01-01

This study looks at how the education of Learners with Special Education Needs (LSEN) has developed in Lesotho as a result of international policies on human rights and education. In particular, it explores various challenges to inclusive education such as proper understanding of inclusive education, the development of a policy on special and…

MACROECONOMICS EFFECT OF FISCAL POLICY IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: THE CASE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

OpenAIRE

Besnik Fetai; Selajdin Abduli

2014-01-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of fiscal policy in small open transition economy. This paper employs, Granger- Causality test, Impulse Response Function and Forecast Error Decomposition, in order to assess the impact of fiscal policy on real GDP and prices. In this finding, all econometrics result do not show a conventional Keynesian effect of fiscal policy on real economic activity due to the counteracting effect of the monetary policy reaction. This causes a crowdi...

Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

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Chen, Peng

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Market Risk Premium : Study of Sweden, Germany and Canada

OpenAIRE

Tahmidi, Arad; Sheludchenko, Dmytro; Allahyari Westlund, Samira

2011-01-01

ABSTRACT Title The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Market Premium. Study of Sweden, Germany and Canada Authors Samira Allahyari Westlund Arad Tahmidi Dmytro Sheludchenko Supervisor Christos Papahristodoulou Key words Macroeconomic, market risk premium, GDP, inflation, money supply, primary net lending and net borrowing, regression analysis. Institution Mälardalen University School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology Box 883, SE-721 23 Västerås Sweden Course Bachelor The...

"Revenue Management" Effects Related to Financial Flows Generated by Climate Policy

OpenAIRE

Strand, Jon

2009-01-01

This paper discusses possible macroeconomic implications for low-income countries of increased revenue inflows that may follow from implementing certain global greenhouse gas mitigation policies. Such revenue sources include revenue from emissions offset mechanisms, direct investments, and financial transfers that form parts of possible future mitigation treaties. In the short run such rev...

Model Proposition for the Fiscal Policies Analysis Applied in Economic Field

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Larisa Preda

2007-05-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a study about fiscal policy applied in economic development. Correlations between macroeconomics and fiscal indicators signify the first steep in our analysis. Next step is a new model proposal for the fiscal and budgetary choices. This model is applied on the date of the Romanian case.

A macro-economic and sectoral evaluation of carbon taxation in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Callonnec, Gael; Reynes, Frederic; Yeddir-Tamsamani, Yasser

2011-01-01

This paper evaluates the macro-economic and sectoral impact of a carbon tax in France using the Three-ME model that combines two important features: (1) The model has a detailed industrial structure and detailed description of the French tax system, particularly the taxation applied to energy. (2) It has the main properties of the neo-Keynesian models because it takes into account the slow process adjustment of prices and quantifies. Our results show under certain conditions the possibility of a double economic and environmental dividends resulting from carbon taxation, for both the short and long term. Carbon tax. Neo-Keynesian macro-economic model. Sectoral analysis. Initially published in 'Revue de l'OFCE / Debats et politiques' No. 120

MACROECONOMIC CLIMATE AND THE SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE COMPANIES IN ROMANIA

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Andrei Rădulescu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Small and medium size companies (SMEs represent the engine of the economy in the member states of the European Union. In Romania, SMEs entered the post-crisis cycle in 2013 after a severe adjustment process under the impact of the Great Recession. The economic performance of SMEs is strongly influenced by the macroeconomic climate. The important role of SMEs in the economy has determined the Romanian government to implement several measures in order to support their activity. The present paper highlights the mid-term macroeconomic outlook for Romania, as well as the recent developments related to SMEs, along with the main measures implemented by the Government over the past years in order to support the development of these companies.

Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Returns in Vietnam

OpenAIRE

Phan, Van Hang

2008-01-01

Capital market development, especially the appearance of Vietnamese equity market recently has a strategic importance in the economic growth and structural reform process of Vietnam (Chun et al, 2003). This dissertation focuses on the impacts of macroeconomic forces on stock market returns in Vietnamese stock market which has not been investigated in detail before, and thereby to contribute further literature on this new emerging stock market. Specifically, the research will intensively inves...

Establishing a Set of Macroeconomic Factors Explaining Variation Over Time of Performance in Business Sectors

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Audrius Dzikevičius

2016-06-01

Full Text Available With increasing competitiveness of companies and business sectors in the domestic markets of Lithuania, economic units are frequently confronted with the lack of methods for more detailed analysis of external factors explaining the variation over time of corporate financial indicators. The analysis or forecasting of financial indicators is usually linked with the development of a stock market or undertaken to estimate the probability of bankruptcy. However, there is a lack of studies aimed at identifying links between macroeconomic factors and financial performance indicators and explaining their variation over time. To serve that purpose, the factors of the macroeconomic environment that are most significant for certain economic activities have been identified and analysed to enable explaining the variation over time patterns of corporate financial indicators. The analysis covers economic performance, i.e. financial performance indicators and their links with macroeconomic factors, in 89 business sectors of Lithuania at a three-digit level of NACE 2 ed. The findings of the research indicate that the unemployment level in the country, the volume of export and import and the GDP are the most important macroeconomic factors that can be used to forecast different profitability, financial leverage, liquidity and other financial performance indicators of individual business sectors or companies. The research has not unfolded any significant differences between business sectors therefore the above factors are considered generic macroeconomic factors enabling to explain financial performance indicators of the 89 business sectors. Hence, special attention has to be paid to identifying and analysing specific factors and assessing the causal link. When established, the set of such factors provides a framework for building of a model to forecast business sector financial indicators.

On the formation of energy policies towards 2020: Challenges in the Swedish industrial and building sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thollander, Patrik; Rohdin, Patrik; Moshfegh, Bahram

2012-01-01

The impact of global climate change due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases emissions which in turn is a consequence of in particular, the use of fossil fuels, has made EU decision makers to act decisively, e.g. the EU 2020 primary energy target of reducing primary energy use with 20% from 2005 to 2020. The aim of this paper is to present major challenges related to the development and formation of energy policies towards the Swedish industrial and building sector in order to fulfill the EU 2020 primary energy target. This paper is approaching the presented challenges by introducing the theory of Asymmetric Energy Policy Shocks (AEPSs), and addresses some key challenges which are of particular relevance for the fulfilment of the EU 2020 primary energy target for Member States like Sweden which from an energy end-use perspective substantially differs from the EU-25's energy end-use structure. In conclusion, overcoming AEPSs, and moving towards a more Long-Term Energy Policy Approach (LTEPA) will be of key importance for individual Member States, if the 2020 primary energy target is to be fulfilled. - Highlights: ► The paper presents major challenges in regard to the formation of Swedish energy policy for the industry and building sectors. ► The theory of Asymmetric Energy Policy Shocks is introduced. ► Regional differences are important to take into account when designing energy policies for the industry and building sectors.

Essays in political economy and resource economic : A macroeconomic approach

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Rodriguez Acosta, Mauricio

2016-01-01

This dissertation consists of four chapters in Political Economy and Resource Economics from a macroeconomic perspective. This collection of works emphasizes the endogenous nature of institutions and their importance for economic development. The four chapters revolve around two central questions:

Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lindeboom, Maarten; Portrait, France; Berg, van den G.J.

2003-01-01

This paper analyzes the effects of macro-economic conditions throughout life on the individual mortality rate. We estimate flexible duration models where the individual's mortality rate depends on current conditions, conditions earlier in life (notably during childhood), calendar time, age,

Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics.

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Achdou, Yves; Buera, Francisco J; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis; Moll, Benjamin

2014-11-13

The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

GREEK ECONOMIC CRISIS ON MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

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GĂBAN LUCIAN

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to examine briefly some elements of macroeconomic aspects that could explain - at least partly - a number of causes of the current economic crisis in Greece. Using data provided by competent bodies, is intended as a more accurate outlining the differences between Greece and the other countries of the European Union member show widespread Greek State as an outlier among the countries that make up the current "U.E. 28 ". The analysis is based on three indicators relevant to the case – unemployment, government debt and nonperforming loans.

The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands.

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Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard; Smith, Richard D; Edmunds, John W; Beutels, Philippe

2010-12-01

The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) showed that infectious disease outbreaks can have notable macroeconomic impacts. The current H1N1 and potential H5N1 flu pandemics could have a much greater impact. Using a multi-sector single country computable general equilibrium model of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands, together with disease scenarios of varying severity, we examine the potential economic cost of a modern pandemic. Policies of school closure, vaccination and antivirals, together with prophylactic absence from work are evaluated and their cost impacts are estimated. Results suggest GDP losses from the disease of approximately 0.5-2% but school closure and prophylactic absenteeism more than triples these effects. Increasing school closures from 4 weeks at the peak to entire pandemic closure almost doubles the economic cost, but antivirals and vaccinations seem worthwhile. Careful planning is therefore important to ensure expensive policies to mitigate the pandemic are effective in minimising illness and deaths.

Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Ecuador 1993-2009

OpenAIRE

Carrillo, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Fiscal policy is particularly relevant in dollarized economies. For the case of Ecuador, we analyze the effects of taxes and public spending on the overall performance of the economy for the period 1993-2009. To do this, we use a structural autoregressive vector model (SVAR) incorporating the stylized facts of Ecuador estimated on Gachet et al. (2010). The main results are: i) the taxes have only temporary effects on the ecuadorian economy, ii) the increase in indirect taxes affect negatively...

Convergenze, divergenze e riallineamenti nella teorica macroeconomica inglese. (Convergence, divergence and realignment in British macroeconomics

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D. COBHAM

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In questo lavoro l' autore sostiene che le distinzione ancora frequente e semplicistica tra keynesiani e monetaristi che costituisce gran parte del popolare dibattito economico britannico è diventata gravemente fuorviante . I cambiamenti che hanno avuto luogo in macroeconomia britannici fin dai primi anni 1970 sono quindi indicati e alcuni dei fattori teorici ed empirici responsabili di questi cambiamenti sono suggeriti. L'autore presenta una breve caratterizzazione del keynesismo britannico e monetarismo al 1970 fine del 1960 / inizio , sostenendo che ci sono stati importanti elementi di convergenza . Egli procede per discutere alcuni degli sviluppi teorici e alcune delle esperienze di politica macroeconomica del Regno Unito che hanno contribuito a questa convergenza . Infine , egli considera se le etichette " keynesiani " e " monetarista " continuano ad essere rilevanti .In this paper the author argues that the still frequent and simplistic distinction between Keynesians and monetarists that makes up a large part of the British popular economic debate has become seriously misleading. Changes that have taken place in British macroeconomics since the early 1970s are thus indicated and some of the theoretical and empirical factors responsible for these changes are suggested. The author presents a brief characterisation of British Keynesianism and monetarism as of late 1960s/early 1970s, arguing that there have been important elements of convergence. He proceeds to discuss some of the theoretical developments and some of the experiences of UK macroeconomic policy which have contributed to this convergence. Finally, he considers whether the labels “Keynesian” and “monetarist” continue to be relevant.JEL: E12, E13

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENSE SPENDING AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

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Onur OZSOY

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, the rate of Defense Spendings in the GDP, and the growth rate of GDP, and the portion of current accounts in GDP and Annual Inflation Rate are examined with getting the annual data between the 1980-2006 years, and using VAR model for Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Turkey. In course of this examination, the results of Granger Casuality and Impulse-Response Functions and Variance Decomposition were used. The focus point of our study is for the reason of defense spendings are effective on macroeconomic variables that while Egypt and Israel has uni-directional Granger causality from the defense spendings to inflation, for other countries there couldn`t be found any Granger causality. On the other hand when we look at the impulse response functions, in case of a shock of defense spending as a percentage of GNP, while the rate of Israel`s inflation and Current account as a percentage of GNP are affected by the pozitive direction , Turkey`s growth rate is affected negatively. For Egypt and Jordan, the significiant effects on defense spendings according to macroeconomic variables couldn`t be found any significiant effects.

The impact of science on economic growth and its cycles the mathematical dynamics determined by the basic macroeconomic facts

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Aulin, Arvid

1998-01-01

The author shows that the enormous gap between theory and facts in modern macroeconomics can only be eliminated by nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics with the following special characteristics: First of all, only certain group-theoretical invariants generate the correct growth cycles with irregularly varying lengths, not any stochastic process as usually applied for this purpose. Furthermore, a special extended value function and generalized human capital are needed for a correct representation of scientific and technological innovation. Finally, the correct nonlinear macroeconomic dynamics are not reducible to microeconomics, for both of the above mentioned reasons.

Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); R. Segers (René); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

2008-01-01

textabstractSeveral lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic

Macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows from russia to tajikistan

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