WorldWideScience

Sample records for longterm climatic habitability

  1. GENERALIZED MILANKOVITCH CYCLES AND LONG-TERM CLIMATIC HABITABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spiegel, David S.; Dressing, Courtney D.; Raymond, Sean N.; Scharf, Caleb A.; Mitchell, Jonathan L.

    2010-01-01

    Although Earth's orbit is never far from circular, terrestrial planets around other stars might experience substantial changes in eccentricity. Eccentricity variations could lead to climate changes, including possible 'phase transitions' such as the snowball transition (or its opposite). There is evidence that Earth has gone through at least one globally frozen, 'snowball' state in the last billion years, which it is thought to have exited after several million years because global ice-cover shut off the carbonate-silicate cycle, thereby allowing greenhouse gases to build up to sufficient concentration to melt the ice. Due to the positive feedback caused by the high albedo of snow and ice, susceptibility to falling into snowball states might be a generic feature of water-rich planets with the capacity to host life. This paper has two main thrusts. First, we revisit one-dimensional energy balance climate models as tools for probing possible climates of exoplanets, investigate the dimensional scaling of such models, and introduce a simple algorithm to treat the melting of the ice layer on a globally frozen planet. We show that if a terrestrial planet undergoes Milankovitch-like oscillations of eccentricity that are of great enough magnitude, it could melt out of a snowball state. Second, we examine the kinds of variations of eccentricity that a terrestrial planet might experience due to the gravitational influence of a giant companion. We show that a giant planet on a sufficiently eccentric orbit can excite extreme eccentricity oscillations in the orbit of a habitable terrestrial planet. More generally, these two results demonstrate that the long-term habitability (and astronomical observables) of a terrestrial planet can depend on the detailed architecture of the planetary system in which it resides.

  2. HABITABLE CLIMATES: THE INFLUENCE OF ECCENTRICITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dressing, Courtney D.; Spiegel, David S.; Scharf, Caleb A.; Menou, Kristen; Raymond, Sean N.

    2010-01-01

    In the outer regions of the habitable zone, the risk of transitioning into a globally frozen 'snowball' state poses a threat to the habitability of planets with the capacity to host water-based life. Here, we use a one-dimensional energy balance climate model (EBM) to examine how obliquity, spin rate, orbital eccentricity, and the fraction of the surface covered by ocean might influence the onset of such a snowball state. For an exoplanet, these parameters may be strikingly different from the values observed for Earth. Since, for a constant semimajor axis, the annual mean stellar irradiation scales with (1 - e 2 ) -1/2 , one might expect the greatest habitable semimajor axis (for fixed atmospheric composition) to scale as (1 - e 2 ) -1/4 . We find that this standard simple ansatz provides a reasonable lower bound on the outer boundary of the habitable zone, but the influence of both obliquity and ocean fraction can be profound in the context of planets on eccentric orbits. For planets with eccentricity 0.5, for instance, our EBM suggests that the greatest habitable semimajor axis can vary by more than 0.8 AU (78%!) depending on obliquity, with higher obliquity worlds generally more stable against snowball transitions. One might also expect that the long winter at an eccentric planet's apoastron would render it more susceptible to global freezing. Our models suggest that this is not a significant risk for Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars, as considered here, since such planets are buffered by the thermal inertia provided by oceans covering at least 10% of their surface. Since planets on eccentric orbits spend much of their year particularly far from the star, such worlds might turnout to be especially good targets for direct observations with missions such as TPF-Darwin. Nevertheless, the extreme temperature variations achieved on highly eccentric exo-Earths raise questions about the adaptability of life to marginally or transiently habitable conditions.

  3. Habitability in long-term space missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mount, Frances E.

    1987-01-01

    The research (both in progress and completed) conducted for the U.S. Space Station in relation to the crew habitability and crew productivity is discussed. Methods and tasks designed to increase the data base of the man/system information are described. The particular research areas discussed in this paper include human productivity, on-orbit maintenance, vewing requirements, fastener types, and crew quarters. This information (along with data obtained on human interaction with command/control work station, anthropometic factors, crew equipment, galley/wardroom, restraint systems, etc) will be integrated into the common data base for the purpose of assisting the design of the Space Station and other future manned space missions.

  4. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enright, W.

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  5. Progressive Climate Change on Titan: Implications for Habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J. M.; A. D. Howard

    2014-01-01

    Titan's landscape is profoundly shaped by its atmosphere and comparable in magnitude perhaps with only the Earth and Mars amongst the worlds of the Solar System. Like the Earth, climate dictates the intensity and relative roles of fluvial and aeolian activity from place to place and over geologic time. Thus Titan's landscape is the record of climate change. We have investigated three broad classes of Titan climate evolution hypotheses (Steady State, Progressive, and Cyclic), regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We favor the Progressive hypotheses, which we will outline here, then discuss their implication for habitability.

  6. Long-Term Planetary Habitability and the Carbonate-Silicate Cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushby, Andrew J; Johnson, Martin; Mills, Benjamin J W; Watson, Andrew J; Claire, Mark W

    2018-05-01

    The potential habitability of an exoplanet is traditionally assessed by determining whether its orbit falls within the circumstellar "habitable zone" of its star, defined as the distance at which water could be liquid on the surface of a planet (Kopparapu et al., 2013 ). Traditionally, these limits are determined by radiative-convective climate models, which are used to predict surface temperatures at user-specified levels of greenhouse gases. This approach ignores the vital question of the (bio)geochemical plausibility of the proposed chemical abundances. Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere in terms of regulating planetary temperature, with the long-term concentration controlled by the balance between volcanic outgassing and the sequestration of CO 2 via chemical weathering and sedimentation, as modulated by ocean chemistry, circulation, and biological (microbial) productivity. We developed a model that incorporates key aspects of Earth's short- and long-term biogeochemical carbon cycle to explore the potential changes in the CO 2 greenhouse due to variance in planet size and stellar insolation. We find that proposed changes in global topography, tectonics, and the hydrological cycle on larger planets result in proportionally greater surface temperatures for a given incident flux. For planets between 0.5 and 2 R ⊕ , the effect of these changes results in average global surface temperature deviations of up to 20 K, which suggests that these relationships must be considered in future studies of planetary habitability. Key Words: Planets-Atmospheres-Carbon dioxide-Biogeochemistry. Astrobiology 18, 469-480.

  7. Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P; Joshi, Manoj M

    2016-04-19

    Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies.

  8. Habits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, T W; Costa, Rui M

    2017-11-20

    What is a habit? One problem with the concept of habit has been that virtually everyone has their own ideas of what is meant by such a term. Whilst not eschewing folk psychology, it is useful to re-examine dictionary definitions of 'habit'. The Oxford Dictionary of English defines habit as "a settled or regular tendency or practice, especially one that is hard to give up" and also "an automatic reaction to a specific situation". The latter, reassuringly, is not too far from what has come to be known as stimulus-response theory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The Role of Clouds in the Long-Term Habitability of Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toon, Owen B.; Tolbert, Margaret

    2000-01-01

    We proposed to conduct theoretical and laboratory investigations of the role that clouds play in the long-term climate history of the Earth and other habitable planets. We made significant progress in the first area we proposed to consider- the properties of carbon dioxide clouds in atmospheres that are rich in carbon dioxide. We submitted a modeling paper on the microphysical properties of the clouds to Icarus showing that such clouds are unlikely to play an important role in the early greenhouses on Earth or Mars. The model was based on lab studies of the nucleation and growth of carbon dioxide. We have also submitted a manuscript describing these lab studies to Icarus. These lab studies are critical not only to the ancient Mars atmosphere, but also to the current one. We also submitted a paper to Nature describing modeling of current Martian CO2 clouds. We will also model the properties of water clouds in the early history of Earth. Early in Earth's history the atmosphere contained no free oxygen. Without oxygen, sulfate aerosols that are currently the dominant cloud nuclei, cannot form. Without such nuclei the cloud structure would have been far different than it is now. We initiated studies of the aerosols on Titan as part of this work. We reported these studies in a short paper on nucleation and in several conferences.

  10. Habitability Imposters: Extreme Terrestrial Climates in the Habitable Zone of M Dwarf Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincowski, A. P.; Meadows, V. S.; Crisp, D.; Robinson, T. D.; Luger, R.; Arney, G. N.

    2017-11-01

    We use coupled climate-photochemical modeling of TRAPPIST-1 planets to present a variety of evolved environmental states and their spectral discriminants, for use by upcoming M dwarf planet characterization observations.

  11. Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolf, Eric T.; Toon, Owen B.; Shields, Aomawa L.; Kopparapu, Ravi K.; Haqq-Misra, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO 2 , under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures ( T s ); snowball ( T s ≤ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≤ T s ≤ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≤ T s ≤ 315 K), and moist greenhouse ( T s ≥ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having T s ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO 2 , habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

  12. Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, Eric T.; Toon, Owen B. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Shields, Aomawa L. [University of California, Irvine, Department of Physics and Astronomy, 4129 Frederick Reines Hall, Irvine, CA 92697 (United States); Kopparapu, Ravi K.; Haqq-Misra, Jacob, E-mail: eric.wolf@colorado.edu [NASA Astrobiology Institute' s Virtual Planetary Laboratory, P.O. Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States)

    2017-03-10

    Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO{sub 2}, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures ( T {sub s}); snowball ( T {sub s} ≤ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≤ T {sub s} ≤ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≤ T {sub s} ≤ 315 K), and moist greenhouse ( T {sub s} ≥ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having T {sub s} ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO{sub 2}, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

  13. CLIMATE PATTERNS OF HABITABLE EXOPLANETS IN ECCENTRIC ORBITS AROUND M DWARFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yuwei; Hu, Yongyun [Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 China (China); Tian, Feng, E-mail: yyhu@pku.edu.cn [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2014-08-10

    Previous studies show that synchronous rotating habitable exoplanets around M dwarfs should have an ''eyeball'' climate pattern—a limited region of open water on the day side and ice on the rest of the planet. However, exoplanets with nonzero eccentricities could have spin-orbit resonance states different from the synchronous rotation state. Here, we show that a striped-ball climate pattern, with a global belt of open water at low and middle latitudes and ice over both polar regions, should be common on habitable exoplanets in eccentric orbits around M dwarfs. We further show that these different climate patterns can be observed by future exoplanet detection missions.

  14. The Importance of Topography in Modeling the Climates of Potentially Habitable Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Way, M.; Jonas, J.

    2017-12-01

    The surface features of distant potentially habitable worlds are unknown and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. As a result, 3-D general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the climates of these worlds commonly utilize an aquaplanet configuration (no emergent land). We highlight here the differences in simulated climates that are produced when using realistic, reconstructed, or idealized continental distributions. Paleo-Earth scenarios as analogues of habitable exoplanets with emergent land exist back to 2 Gyr. There is high confidence in continental reconstructions back to 300 Myr, with moderate confidence reconstructions dating to at least 1 Gyr. A range of habitable states exists throughout the last two billion years of Earth history, including periods that are representative of both inner and outer edge environments, i.e., Snowball Earth and the Cretaceous Greenhouse. Using reconstructed land/ocean distributions with the GCM permits us to test hypotheses based on conceptual models (does a supercontinent at tropical latitudes encourage global cooling via albedo feedbacks?) as well as explore far-field climate teleconnections that may explain enhanced habitability (does the closing of an equatorial seaway drive increased heating in polar regions?). Paleo-Venus simulations, using current topography and a slow rotation rate, have shown that large land fraction in the tropics combined with modest amounts of water actually limits the amount of planetary warming to habitable levels, moreso than aquaplanets, given the equivalent solar flux - thus showing the inner edge of the HZ to be more transitional than previously described. For distant exoplanets or paleo-Earth prior to 2 Gyr, idealized continents or modern Earth topography help illustrate the range of possible habitable states for a given case. With idealized continents, varying the land fraction and location produces as much as a 20˚C difference in global MAT for otherwise identical simulations

  15. Long-term ecophysiological responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesgaard, Kristine Stove; Ro-Poulsen, Helge

    Plant physiology is affected by climate change. Acclimations of photosynthetic processes are induced by short-term changes in climatic conditions. Further acclimation can be caused by longterm adjustments to climate change due to ecosystem-feedbacks. The aim of this PhD was to investigate plant...... term responses of plant physiology to the climate change factors were investigated. In the CLIMAITE-experiment it has been shown that 2 years of treatment altered physiological responses in Deschampsiaand Calluna. In the work of this PhD similar responses were observed after 6 years of treatment...... physiological responses to climate change in a seasonal and long-term perspective. The effects of elevated CO2, passive night time warming and periodic summer drought as single factor and in combination, on plant physiology were investigated in the long-term multifactorial field experiment CLIMAITE in a Danish...

  16. Habitability of waterworlds: runaway greenhouses, atmospheric expansion, and multiple climate states of pure water atmospheres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldblatt, Colin

    2015-05-01

    There are four different stable climate states for pure water atmospheres, as might exist on so-called "waterworlds." I map these as a function of solar constant for planets ranging in size from Mars-sized to 10 Earth-mass. The states are as follows: globally ice covered (Ts ⪅ 245 K), cold and damp (270 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 290 K), hot and moist (350 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 550 K), and very hot and dry (Tsx2A86;900 K). No stable climate exists for 290 ⪅ T s ⪅ 350 K or 550 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 900 K. The union of hot moist and cold damp climates describes the liquid water habitable zone, the width and location of which depends on planet mass. At each solar constant, two or three different climate states are stable. This is a consequence of strong nonlinearities in both thermal emission and the net absorption of sunlight. Across the range of planet sizes, I account for the atmospheres expanding to high altitudes as they warm. The emitting and absorbing surfaces (optical depth of unity) move to high altitude, making their area larger than the planet surface, so more thermal radiation is emitted and more sunlight absorbed (the former dominates). The atmospheres of small planets expand more due to weaker gravity; the effective runaway greenhouse threshold is about 35 W m(-2) higher for Mars, 10 W m(-2) higher for Earth or Venus, but only a few W m(-2) higher for a 10 Earth-mass planet. There is an underlying (expansion-neglected) trend of increasing runaway greenhouse threshold with planetary size (40 W m(-2) higher for a 10 Earth-mass planet than for Mars). Summing these opposing trends means that Venus-sized (or slightly smaller) planets are most susceptible to a runaway greenhouse. The habitable zone for pure water atmospheres is very narrow, with an insolation range of 0.07 times the solar constant. A wider habitable zone requires background gas and greenhouse gas: N2 and CO2 on Earth, which are biologically controlled. Thus, habitability depends on inhabitance.

  17. The Effect of Orbital Configuration on the Possible Climates and Habitability of Kepler-62f.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Aomawa L; Barnes, Rory; Agol, Eric; Charnay, Benjamin; Bitz, Cecilia; Meadows, Victoria S

    2016-06-01

    As lower-mass stars often host multiple rocky planets, gravitational interactions among planets can have significant effects on climate and habitability over long timescales. Here we explore a specific case, Kepler-62f (Borucki et al., 2013 ), a potentially habitable planet in a five-planet system with a K2V host star. N-body integrations reveal the stable range of initial eccentricities for Kepler-62f is 0.00 ≤ e ≤ 0.32, absent the effect of additional, undetected planets. We simulate the tidal evolution of Kepler-62f in this range and find that, for certain assumptions, the planet can be locked in a synchronous rotation state. Simulations using the 3-D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Generic global climate model (GCM) indicate that the surface habitability of this planet is sensitive to orbital configuration. With 3 bar of CO2 in its atmosphere, we find that Kepler-62f would only be warm enough for surface liquid water at the upper limit of this eccentricity range, providing it has a high planetary obliquity (between 60° and 90°). A climate similar to that of modern-day Earth is possible for the entire range of stable eccentricities if atmospheric CO2 is increased to 5 bar levels. In a low-CO2 case (Earth-like levels), simulations with version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) GCM and LMD Generic GCM indicate that increases in planetary obliquity and orbital eccentricity coupled with an orbital configuration that places the summer solstice at or near pericenter permit regions of the planet with above-freezing surface temperatures. This may melt ice sheets formed during colder seasons. If Kepler-62f is synchronously rotating and has an ocean, CO2 levels above 3 bar would be required to distribute enough heat to the nightside of the planet to avoid atmospheric freeze-out and permit a large enough region of open water at the planet's substellar point to remain stable. Overall, we find multiple plausible combinations of

  18. Is Gliese 581d habitable? Some constraints from radiative-convective climate modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Wordsworth, R. D.; Forget, F.; Selsis, F.; Madeleine, J. -B.; Millour, E.; Eymet, V.

    2010-01-01

    The recently discovered exoplanet Gl 581d is extremely close to the outer edge of its system’s habitable zone, which has led to much speculation on its possible climate. We have performed a range of simulations to assess whether, given simple combinations of chemically stable greenhouse gases, the planet could sustain liquid water on its surface. For best estimates of the surface gravity, surface albedo and cloud coverage, we find that less than 10 bars of CO2 is sufficient to maintain a glob...

  19. Diversification of the phaseoloid legumes: effects of climate change, range expansion and habit shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Honglei; Wang, Wei; Lin, Li; Zhu, Xiangyun; Li, Jianhua; Zhu, Xinyu; Chen, Zhiduan

    2013-01-01

    Understanding which factors have driven the evolutionary success of a group is a fundamental question in biology. Angiosperms are the most successful group in plants and have radiated and adapted to various habitats. Among angiosperms, legumes are a good example for such successful radiation and adaptation. We here investigated how the interplay of past climate changes, geographical expansion and habit shifts has promoted diversification of the phaseoloid legumes, one of the largest clades in the Leguminosae. Using a comprehensive genus-level phylogeny from three plastid markers, we estimate divergence times, infer habit shifts, test the phylogenetic and temporal diversification heterogeneity, and reconstruct ancestral biogeographical ranges. We found that the phaseoloid lineages underwent twice dramatic accumulation. During the Late Oligocene, at least six woody clades rapidly diverged, perhaps in response to the Late Oligocene warming and aridity, and a result of rapidly exploiting new ecological opportunities in Asia, Africa and Australia. The most speciose lineage is herbaceous and began to rapidly diversify since the Early Miocene, which was likely ascribed to arid climates, along with the expansion of seasonally dry tropical forests in Africa, Asia, and America. The phaseoloid group provides an excellent case supporting the idea that the interplay of ecological opportunities and key innovations drives the evolutionary success.

  20. Diversification of the phaseoloid legumes: Effects of climate change, range expansion and habit shift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Honglei eLi

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding which factors have driven the evolutionary success of a group is a fundamental question in biology. Angiosperms are the most successful group in plants and have radiated and adapted to various habitats. Among angiosperms, legumes are a good example for such successful radiation and adaptation. We here investigated how the interplay of past climate changes, geographical expansion and habit shifts have promoted diversification of the phaseoloid legumes, one of the largest clades in the Leguminosae. Using a comprehensive genus-level phylogeny from three plastid markers, we estimate divergence times, infer habit shifts, test the phylogenetic and temporal diversification heterogeneity, and reconstruct ancestral biogeographical ranges. We found that the phaseoloid lineages underwent twice dramatic accumulation. During the Late Oligocene, at least six woody clades rapidly diverged, perhaps in response to the Late Oligocene warming and aridity, and a result of rapidly exploiting new ecological opportunities in Asia, Africa and Australia. The most speciose lineage is herbaceous and began to rapidly diversify since the Early Miocene, which was likely ascribed to arid climates, along with the expansion of seasonally dry tropical forests in Africa, Asia and America. The phaseoloid group provides an excellent case supporting the idea that the interplay of ecological opportunities and key innovations drive the evolutionary success.

  1. Assessing distributions of two invasive species of contrasting habits in future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, Rajendra Mohan; Behera, Mukunda Dev; Roy, Partha Sarathi

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the impact of climate change on species invasion is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation. Through this study, we try to answer how species differing in phenological cycles, specifically Cassia tora and Lantana camara, differ in the manner in which they invade new regions in India in the future climate. Since both species occupy identical niches, exploring their invasive potential in different climate change scenarios will offer critical insights into invasion and inform ecosystem management. We use three modelling protocols (i.e., maximum entropy, generalised linear model and generalised additive model) to predict the current distribution. Projections are made for both moderate (A1B) and extreme (A2) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. The study reveals that the distributions of C. tora (annual) and L. camara (perennial) would depend on the precipitation of the warmest quarter and moisture availability. C. tora may demonstrate physiological tolerance to the mean diurnal temperature range and L. camara to the solar radiation. C. tora may invade central India, while L. camara may invade the Western Himalaya, parts of the Eastern Himalaya and the Western Ghats. The distribution ranges of both species could shift in the northern and north-eastern directions in India, owing to changes in moisture availability. The possible alterations in precipitation regimes could lead to water stress, which might have cascading effects on species invasion. L. camara might adapt to climate change better compared with C. tora. This comparative analysis of the future distributions of two invasive plants with contrasting habits demonstrates that temporal complementarity would prevail over the competition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Climatic Evolution and Habitability of Terrestrial Planets: Perspectives from Coupled Atmosphere-Mantle Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu Sarkar, D.; Moore, W. B.

    2016-12-01

    A multitude of factors including the distance from the host star and the stage of planetary evolution affect planetary climate and habitability. The complex interactions between the atmosphere and dynamics of the deep interior of the planets along with stellar fluxes present a formidable challenge. This work employs simplified approaches to address these complex issues in a systematic way. To be specific, we are investigating the coupled evolution of atmosphere and mantle dynamics. The overarching goal here is to simulate the evolutionary history of the terrestrial planets, for example Venus, Earth and Mars. This research also aims at deciphering the history of Venus-like runaway greenhouse and thus explore the possibility of cataclysmic shifts in climate of Earth-like planets. We focus on volatile cycling within the solid planets to understand the role of carbon/water in climatic and tectonic outcomes of such planets. In doing so, we are considering the feedbacks in the coupled mantle-atmosphere system. The primary feedback between the atmosphere and mantle is the surface temperature established by the greenhouse effect, which regulates the temperature gradient that drives the mantle convection and controls the rate at which volatiles are exchanged through weathering. We start our models with different initial assumptions to determine the final climate outcomes within a reasonable parameter space. Currently, there are very few planetary examples, to sample the climate outcomes, however this will soon change as exoplanets are discovered and examined. Therefore, we will be able to work with a significant number of potential candidates to answer questions like this one: For every Earth is there one Venus? ten? a thousand?

  3. Rethinking crop diversification under changing climate, hydrology and food habit in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminul Islam Akanda

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Extreme temperature, frequent and intensive flood, cyclone and other natural disasters due to climate change became acute in Bangladesh and would be severe in future. Besides, water crisis due to shortage of upstream flow and very little rainfall in dry season would affect in a same way. Gradual higher dependency on groundwater irrigation during last few decades created pressure on groundwater even after a huge discharge during rainy season. Using secondary data, this research analyzed the changes in cropping pattern along with a forecast of area to be distributed among various crops in 2029-30 and proposed a re-distribution considering probable crop failure, water crisis and change in food habit. Inherit rice-dominated food habit and government incentive policy encouraged farmers to be concentrated highly on water-intensive rice farming. However, a recent tendency of less rice consumption would encourage crop diversification in future. An incentive policy for farming of diversified crops and their intensification in all crop seasons would be effective to reduce pressure on groundwater and to persuade a balanced food basket in Bangladesh.

  4. Eating habits, weight reduction strategies and long-term treatment results in obese men : The "Gustaf" study

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Ingalena

    1997-01-01

    Eating habits, weight reduction strategies and long-term treatment resultsin obese men. The "Gustaf" study. Ingalena Andersson Obesity Unit and Health Behaviour Research, Department of Medicine, HuddingeHospital, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden. Abdominal male obesity is associated with hypertension, abnormal blood lipidsand diabetes type 11. For development of a weight loss program for such males, 86obese men (BMI 37.7 [4.4] kg/m2) (mean [SD] ) from the wa...

  5. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  6. Multiple Climate States of Habitable Exoplanets: The Role of Obliquity and Irradiance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilic, C.; Raible, C. C.; Stocker, T. F.

    2017-01-01

    Stable, steady climate states on an Earth-size planet with no continents are determined as a function of the tilt of the planet’s rotation axis (obliquity) and stellar irradiance. Using a general circulation model of the atmosphere coupled to a slab ocean and a thermodynamic sea ice model, two states, the Aquaplanet and the Cryoplanet, are found for high and low stellar irradiance, respectively. In addition, four stable states with seasonally and perennially open water are discovered if comprehensively exploring a parameter space of obliquity from 0° to 90° and stellar irradiance from 70% to 135% of the present-day solar constant. Within 11% of today’s solar irradiance, we find a rich structure of stable states that extends the area of habitability considerably. For the same set of parameters, different stable states result if simulations are initialized from an aquaplanet or a cryoplanet state. This demonstrates the possibility of multiple equilibria, hysteresis, and potentially rapid climate change in response to small changes in the orbital parameters. The dynamics of the atmosphere of an aquaplanet or a cryoplanet state is investigated for similar values of obliquity and stellar irradiance. The atmospheric circulation substantially differs in the two states owing to the relative strength of the primary drivers of the meridional transport of heat and momentum. At 90° obliquity and present-day solar constant, the atmospheric dynamics of an Aquaplanet state and one with an equatorial ice cover is analyzed.

  7. Multiple Climate States of Habitable Exoplanets: The Role of Obliquity and Irradiance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilic, C.; Raible, C. C.; Stocker, T. F., E-mail: stocker@climate.unibe.ch [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern (Switzerland)

    2017-08-01

    Stable, steady climate states on an Earth-size planet with no continents are determined as a function of the tilt of the planet’s rotation axis (obliquity) and stellar irradiance. Using a general circulation model of the atmosphere coupled to a slab ocean and a thermodynamic sea ice model, two states, the Aquaplanet and the Cryoplanet, are found for high and low stellar irradiance, respectively. In addition, four stable states with seasonally and perennially open water are discovered if comprehensively exploring a parameter space of obliquity from 0° to 90° and stellar irradiance from 70% to 135% of the present-day solar constant. Within 11% of today’s solar irradiance, we find a rich structure of stable states that extends the area of habitability considerably. For the same set of parameters, different stable states result if simulations are initialized from an aquaplanet or a cryoplanet state. This demonstrates the possibility of multiple equilibria, hysteresis, and potentially rapid climate change in response to small changes in the orbital parameters. The dynamics of the atmosphere of an aquaplanet or a cryoplanet state is investigated for similar values of obliquity and stellar irradiance. The atmospheric circulation substantially differs in the two states owing to the relative strength of the primary drivers of the meridional transport of heat and momentum. At 90° obliquity and present-day solar constant, the atmospheric dynamics of an Aquaplanet state and one with an equatorial ice cover is analyzed.

  8. Long-term wave climate at DanWEC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tetu, Amélie; Kofoed, Jens Peter

    andthe current network of sensors are also presented. The numerical model used toobtain the 35 years hindcast data is introduced together with its validation againstbuoy-measured data and with the description of the dataset utilised for thelong-term climate definition. The recommendations from [IEC 62600...... buoys are continuously recorded and the data is analysed on a quarterly basis. The directional wave measuring buoys were first installed in March 2015. As two years is not sufficient for long-term wave climate definition, modelled data was more appropriate for the task. Thelong-term wave climate around...... Hanstholm is defined in the present report using the hindcast data from the MIKE 21 Spectral Wave model provided by DHI, one of the partners of the project. Before the actual wave climate definition, a description of the site includinglocation and bathymetry is included. The historical wave data of the area...

  9. Short- and long-term eating habit modification predicts weight change in overweight, postmenopausal women: results from the WOMAN study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barone Gibbs, Bethany; Kinzel, Laura S; Pettee Gabriel, Kelley; Chang, Yue-Fang; Kuller, Lewis H

    2012-09-01

    Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors rather than energy intake may be an alternative strategy. In addition, important behaviors might differ for short- vs long-term weight control. Our aim was to describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months. We performed secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight-loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up. We studied 481 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study. We measured changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (Pstudies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Mapping long-term wetland response to climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Q.; Gallant, A.; Rover, J.

    2016-12-01

    Wetlands provide unique feeding and breeding habitat for numerous waterfowl species. The distribution of wetlands has been considerably changed due to agricultural land conversion and hydrologic modification. Climate change may further impact wetlands through altered moisture regimes. This study characterized long-term variation in wetland conditions by using dense time series from all available Landsat data from 1985 to 2014. We extracted harmonic frequencies from 30 years to two years to delineate the long-term variation in all seven Landsat bands. A cluster analysis and unsupervised classification then enabled us to map different classes of wetland response. We demonstrated the method in the Prairie Pothole Region in North Dakota.

  11. Long-Term Phenological Shifts in Raptor Migration and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffré, Mikaël; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Éric; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellén, Nils; Troost, Gerard; Dubois, Philippe J.; Leprêtre, Alain; Luczak, Christophe

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency. PMID:24223888

  12. Long-term phenological shifts in raptor migration and climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikaël Jaffré

    Full Text Available Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010 of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency.

  13. Energy Balance Models of planetary climate as a tool for investigating the habitability of terrestrial planets and its evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferri, G.; Murante, G.; Provenzale, A.; Silva, L.; Vladilo, G.

    2012-04-01

    The study of the habitability and potential for life formation of terrestrial planets requires a considerable work of modelization owing to the limited amount of experimental constraints typical of this type of research. As an example, the paucity of experimental Archean data severely limits the study of the habitability of the primitive Earth at the epoch of the origin of life. In the case of exoplanets the amount of experimental information available is quite limited and the need for modelization strong. Here we focus on the modelization of the surface planetary temperature, a key thermodynamical quantity used to define the habitability. Energy Balance Models (EBM) of planetary climate provide a simple way to calculate the temperature-latitude profile of terrestrial planets with a small amount of computing resources. Thanks to this fact EBMs offer an excellent tool to exploring a wide range of parameter space and therefore testing the effects of variations of physical/chemical quantities unconstrained by experimental data. In particular, one can easily probe possible scenarios of habitability at different stages of planetary evolution. We have recently implemented one-dimensional EBMs featuring the possibility of probing variations of astronomical and geophysical parameters, such as stellar luminosity, orbital semi-major axis and eccentricity, obliquity of the planetary axis, planet rotational velocity, land/ocean surface fractions and thermal capacities, and latitudinal heat diffusion. After testing our models against results obtained in previous work (Williams & Kasting 1997, Icarus, 129, 254; Spiegel et al. 2008, ApJ, 681, 1609), we introduced a novel parametrization of the diffusion coefficient as a function of the stellar zenith distance. Our models have been validated using the mean temperature-latitude profiles of the present Earth and its seasonal variations; the global albedo has been used as an additional constraint. In this work we present specific

  14. Long-term bird study records Arctic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielinski, Sarah

    Alaska's summer of 2005 was the second warmest on record there, with a record retreat of arctic pack ice. As Alaskan temperatures gradually increase, artic birds, such as the black guillemots of Cooper Island, near Barrow, Alaska, are experiencing drastic habitat changes. Though these small black and white birds—the subjects of a long-term study of climate change—fared better this year than they have in the recent past (due to local cool conditions), they are nonetheless struggling to adapt as their artic island summer home becomes subarctic.George Divokyan ornithologist at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, discovered the Cooper Island colony of guillemots in the early 1970s and has spent every summer since 1975 there studying these birds. He presented his latest research during a 3 November talk in Washington, D.C.

  15. Will seasonal and climatic conditions influence living habits and socio-economic activities in such a way that nuclear accident are affected

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baeverstam, U.

    1989-01-01

    The paper discusses to which extent climatic and seasonal effects can influence living habits and socio-economic activities in such a way that consequences of a nuclear accident might be affected. A number of examples from Sweden are given, related to dwellings (building standards and location), diet, seasonal effects in agriculture and tourism. The reindeer are discussed separately. Although climate and season do change man's habits in a way relevant to accident consequences, the conclusion of this paper is that in most cases this mechanism is severely mixed with other, sometimes more important ones

  16. Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saghafian, Bahram; Aghbalaghi, Sara Ghasemi; Nasseri, Mohsen

    2018-05-01

    Most often than not, incomplete datasets or short-term recorded data in vast regions impedes reliable climate and water studies. Various methods, such as simple correlation with stations having long-term time series, are practiced to infill or extend the period of observation at stations with missing or short-term data. In the current paper and for the first time, the hypothesis on the feasibility of extending the downscaling concept to backcast local observation records using large-scale atmospheric predictors is examined. Backcasting is coined here to contrast forecasting/projection; the former is implied to reconstruct in the past, while the latter represents projection in the future. To assess our hypotheses, daily and monthly statistical downscaling models were employed to reconstruct past precipitation data and lengthen the data period. Urmia and Tabriz synoptic stations, located in northwestern Iran, constituted two case study stations. SDSM and data-mining downscaling model (DMDM) daily as well as the group method of data handling (GMDH) and model tree (Mp5) monthly downscaling models were trained with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. After training, reconstructed precipitation data of the past was validated against observed data. Then, the data was fully extended to the 1948 to 2009 period corresponding to available NCEP data period. The results showed that DMDM performed superior in generation of monthly average precipitation compared with the SDSM, Mp5, and GMDH models, although none of the models could preserve the monthly variance. This overall confirms practical value of the proposed approach in extension of the past historic data, particularly for long-term climatological and water budget studies.

  17. Using thermal phase curves to probe the climate of potentially habitable planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataria, Tiffany

    2018-01-01

    Thermal phase-curve observations probe the variation in emitted flux of a planet with phase, or longitude. When conducted spectroscopically, they allow us to probe the two-dimensional temperature structure in both longitude and altitude, which directly relate to the planet’s circulation and chemistry. In the case of small, potentially habitable exoplanets, spectroscopic phase-curve observations can provide us with direct evidence that the planet is capable of sustaining liquid water from measurements of its brightness temperature, and allow us to distinguish between a ‘airless’ body and one that has an appreciable atmosphere. In this talk I will summarize efforts to characterize exoplanets smaller than Neptune with phase-curve observations and emission spectroscopy using the Spitzer and Hubble Space Telescopes. I will then discuss how these ‘lessons learned’ can be applied to future efforts to characterize potentially habitable planets with phase-curve observations using JWST and future facilities such as the Origins Space Telescope (OST).

  18. Planetary Habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasting, James F.

    1997-01-01

    This grant was entitled 'Planetary Habitability' and the work performed under it related to elucidating the conditions that lead to habitable, i.e. Earth-like, planets. Below are listed publications for the past two and a half years that came out of this work. The main thrusts of the research involved: (1) showing under what conditions atmospheric O2 and O3 can be considered as evidence for life on a planet's surface; (2) determining whether CH4 may have played a role in warming early Mars; (3) studying the effect of varying UV levels on Earth-like planets around different types of stars to see whether this would pose a threat to habitability; and (4) studying the effect of chaotic obliquity variations on planetary climates and determining whether planets that experienced such variations might still be habitable. Several of these topics involve ongoing research that has been carried out under a new grant number, but which continues to be funded by NASA's Exobiology program.

  19. Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

    2014-12-01

    The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

  20. Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Domnisoru, A.

    2006-01-01

    Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on

  1. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: Application to the late Pliocene and future

    KAUST Repository

    Lord, Natalie S.

    2017-04-26

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  2. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    KAUST Repository

    Lord, Natalie S.

    2017-11-16

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  3. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    KAUST Repository

    Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O& apos; Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  4. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: Application to the late Pliocene and future

    KAUST Repository

    Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O& apos; Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  5. Short- and long-term eating habit modification predict weight change in overweight, post-menopausal women: results from the WOMAN Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Bethany Barone; Kinzel, Laura S.; Gabriel, Kelley Pettee; Chang, Yue-fang; Kuller, Lewis H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors, rather than caloric intake, may be an alternative strategy. Furthermore, important behaviors might differ for short- vs. long-term weight control. Objective To describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months Design Secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up Participants 465 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study Main outcome measures Changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Statistical analyses performed Linear regression models examined the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. Results At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (pstudies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. PMID:22939439

  6. Space Station Habitability Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clearwater, Yvonne A.

    1988-01-01

    The purpose and scope of the Habitability Research Group within the Space Human Factors Office at the NASA/Ames Research Center is described. Both near-term and long-term research objectives in the space human factors program pertaining to the U.S. manned Space Station are introduced. The concept of habitability and its relevancy to the U.S. space program is defined within a historical context. The relationship of habitability research to the optimization of environmental and operational determinants of productivity is discussed. Ongoing habitability research efforts pertaining to living and working on the Space Station are described.

  7. Long-term trends in geomagnetic and climatic variability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 27, 6/7 (2002), s. 427-731 ISSN 1474-7065 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : geomagnetic forcing * climatic variability * global warming Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

    2006-01-01

    Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

  9. Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large

  10. The long-term climate change task of the Hanford permanent isolation barrier development program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program is developing an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed that will function in what is currently a semiarid environment (mean annual precipitation and temperature of 16 cm and 11.8 degrees C, respectively) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task has specific goals of (1) obtaining defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future; (2) developing several test-case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, including both greenhouse warming and cycling into another ice age; and (3) using the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance. Results from the Carp Lake Pollen Coring Project indicate that for the last approximately 100,000 yr the Columbia River Basin's long-term range of mean annual precipitation ranged from 25%--50% below to 28% above modern levels, while temperature has ranged from 7 degrees C--10 degrees C below to 2 degrees C above modern levels. This long record provides confidence that such a range should bracket potential natural climate change even if the earth cycles back into another Ice Age in the next few millennia

  11. Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loaiciga, Hugo A

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

  12. Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

    2017-04-01

    At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the

  13. Long-term sustainability of the landscape in new climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubeckova, D.; Krocova, S.

    2017-10-01

    The long-term sustainability of the landscape and its natural environment must be the decisive task of the public administration and, in the wider concept, of every citizen. In new climatic conditions, this need has intensified. The following article suggests in a basic scope whether the above-mentioned task can be accomplished, and what means of solution should be used.

  14. Shifting Global Climate Governance: Creating Long-Term Goals Through UNFCCC Article 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Brian Fisher

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available I argue that the long-term risk of global climate change has been mischaracterized as an environmental issue, and therefore, solutions based solely on national emission targets will be ineffective. Thus, this paper argues for establishing long-term goals emphasizing both adaptation and clean energy to generate equitable and effective global climate policy that addresses this fundamental threat. This requires defining and operationalizing the overall objective contained in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A second key aspect to operationalizing Article 2 is to understand those ‘particularly vulnerable’ as declared in the Article and in various climate agreements. Once operationalized, these long-term objectives can be achieved through approaches that emphasize the development of clean energy (and concomitant technology, and adaptation within vulnerable communities in their local context. It necessitates dropping formal mechanisms at the current core of the regime designed to regulate national emissions, and instead build the core of the regime around the ‘stabilization’ of both the climate system through clean energy and vulnerable people through effective adaptation.

  15. Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

  16. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cho

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  17. Coping with climate variability and long-term climate trends for Nicaraguan maize-bean farmers (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.

  18. The Impact of Long-Term Climate Change on Nitrogen Runoff at the Watershed Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorley, J.; Duffy, C.; Arenas Amado, A.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of agricultural runoff is a major concern for water quality of mid-western streams. This concern is largely due to excessive use of agricultural fertilizer, a major source of nutrients in many Midwestern watersheds. In order to improve water quality in these watersheds, understanding the long-term trends in nutrient concentration and discharge is an important water quality problem. This study attempts to analyze the role of long-term temperature and precipitation on nitrate runoff in an agriculturally dominated watershed in Iowa. The approach attempts to establish the concentration-discharge (C-Q) signature for the watershed using time series analysis, frequency analysis and model simulation. The climate data is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), model GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory Coupled Model 3). The historical water quality data was made available by the IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at the University of Iowa for the clear creek watershed (CCW). The CCW is located in east-central Iowa. The CCW is representative of many Midwestern watersheds with humid-continental climate with predominantly agricultural land use. The study shows how long-term climate changes in temperature and precipitation affects the C-Q dynamics and how a relatively simple approach to data analysis and model projections can be applied to best management practices at the site.

  19. Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimori, Shinichiro; Su, Xuanming; Liu, Jing-Yu; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Takimi, Maho

    2016-01-01

    The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model framework. To achieve the 2 °C goal, a large greenhouse gas emissions reduction is required, either in the early or latter half of this century. In the mid-term (from 2030 to 2050), it may be necessary to consider rapid changes to the existing energy or socioeconomic systems, while long-term measures (after 2050) will rely on the substantial use of biomass combined with carbon capture and storage technology or afforestation, which will eventually realize so-called negative CO2 emissions. With respect to the policy context, two suggestions are provided here. The first is the review and revision of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020, with an additional reduction target to the current NDCs being one workable alternative. The second suggestion is a concrete and numerical mid-term emissions reduction target, for example to be met by 2040 or 2050, which could also help to achieve the long-term climate goal.

  20. The regional climate model as a tool for long-term planning of Quebec water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigon, A.

    2008-01-01

    'Full text': In recent years, important progress has been made in downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model) projections to a resolution where hydrological studies become feasible. Climate change simulations performed with RCMs (Regional Climate Models) have reached a level of confidence that allows us to take advantage of this information in long-term planning of water resources. The RCMs' main advantage consist in their construction based on balanced land as well as atmosphere water and energy budgets, and on their inclusion of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere. Such models therefore generate sequences of weather events, providing long time series of hydro-climatic variables that are internally consistent, allowing the analysis of hydrologic regimes. At OURANOS, special attention is placed on the hydrological cycle, given its key role on socioeconomic activities. The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was developed as a potential tool to provide climate projections at the watershed scale. Various analyses performed over small basins in Quebec provide information on the level of confidence we have in the CRCM for use in hydrological studies. Even though this approach is not free of uncertainty, it was found useful by some water resource managers and hence this information should be considered. One of the keys to retain usefulness, despite the associated uncertainties, is to make use of more than a single regional climate projection. This approach will allow for the evaluation of the climate change signal and its associated level of confidence. Such a methodology is already applied by Hydro-Quebec in the long-term planning of its water resources for hydroelectric generation over the Quebec territory. (author)

  1. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  2. Quantitative habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shock, Everett L; Holland, Melanie E

    2007-12-01

    A framework is proposed for a quantitative approach to studying habitability. Considerations of environmental supply and organismal demand of energy lead to the conclusions that power units are most appropriate and that the units for habitability become watts per organism. Extreme and plush environments are revealed to be on a habitability continuum, and extreme environments can be quantified as those where power supply only barely exceeds demand. Strategies for laboratory and field experiments are outlined that would quantify power supplies, power demands, and habitability. An example involving a comparison of various metabolisms pursued by halophiles is shown to be well on the way to a quantitative habitability analysis.

  3. Habit formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kyle S; Graybiel, Ann M

    2016-03-01

    Habits, both good ones and bad ones, are pervasive in animal behavior. Important frameworks have been developed to understand habits through psychological and neurobiological studies. This work has given us a rich understanding of brain networks that promote habits, and has also helped us to understand what constitutes a habitual behavior as opposed to a behavior that is more flexible and prospective. Mounting evidence from studies using neural recording methods suggests that habit formation is not a simple process. We review this evidence and take the position that habits could be sculpted from multiple dissociable changes in neural activity. These changes occur across multiple brain regions and even within single brain regions. This strategy of classifying components of a habit based on different brain signals provides a potentially useful new way to conceive of disorders that involve overly fixed behaviors as arising from different potential dysfunctions within the brain's habit network.

  4. Habit formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kyle S.; Graybiel, Ann M.

    2016-01-01

    Habits, both good ones and bad ones, are pervasive in animal behavior. Important frameworks have been developed to understand habits through psychological and neurobiological studies. This work has given us a rich understanding of brain networks that promote habits, and has also helped us to understand what constitutes a habitual behavior as opposed to a behavior that is more flexible and prospective. Mounting evidence from studies using neural recording methods suggests that habit formation is not a simple process. We review this evidence and take the position that habits could be sculpted from multiple dissociable changes in neural activity. These changes occur across multiple brain regions and even within single brain regions. This strategy of classifying components of a habit based on different brain signals provides a potentially useful new way to conceive of disorders that involve overly fixed behaviors as arising from different potential dysfunctions within the brain's habit network. PMID:27069378

  5. Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussi, Gianbattista; Janes, Victoria; Whitehead, Paul G; Dadson, Simon J; Holman, Ian P

    2017-07-15

    The combined indirect and direct impacts of land use change and climate change on river water quality were assessed. A land use allocation model was used to evaluate the response of the catchment land use to long-term climatic changes. Its results were used to drive a water quality model and assess the impact of climatic alterations on freshwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the likelihood of such response. The River Thames catchment (UK) was used as a case-study. If land use is considered as static parameter, according to the model results, climate change alone should reduce the average nitrate concentration, although just by a small amount, by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to reduced runoff (and lower export of nitrate from agricultural soils) and increased instream denitrification, and should increase the average phosphorus concentration by 12% by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to a reduction of the effluent dilution capacity of the river flow. However, the results of this study also show that these long-term climatic alterations are likely to lead to a reduction in the arable land in the Thames, replaced by improved grassland, due to a decrease in agriculture profitability in the UK. Taking into account the dynamic co-evolution of land use with climate, the average nitrate concentration is expected to be decreased by around 6% by the 2050s in both the upper and the lower Thames, following the model results, and the average phosphorus concentration increased by 13% in the upper Thames and 5% in the lower Thames. On the long term (2080s), nitrate is expected to decrease by 9% and 8% (upper and lower Thames respectively) and phosphorus not to change in the upper thames and increase by 5% in the lower Thames. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Long-term agricultural experiments inform the development of climate-smart agricultural practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Wolf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available California's Mediterranean agro-ecosystems are a major source of U.S. fruits and vegetables, and vulnerable to future extremes of precipitation and temperature brought on by climate change, including increased drought and flooding, and more intense and longer heat waves. To develop resilience to these threats, strategies are necessary for climate-smart management of soil and water. Long-term, large-scale, replicated ecological experiments provide unique testbeds for studying such questions. At the UC Davis Russell Ranch Sustainable Agriculture Facility (RRSAF, the 100-year Century Experiment, initiated in 1992, is investigating the effects of multiple farming practices in a farm-scale replicated study of 10 row crop cropping systems. It includes different fertility management systems: organic, conventional and hybrid (conventional plus winter cover crop systems; different crops: wheat, tomatoes, corn, alfalfa, cover crops and grasslands; and different irrigation systems: rainfed, flood irrigated and drip irrigated. We briefly describe and report on a selection of long-term experiments conducted at RRSAF investigating soil management and irrigation practices, which are an important focus for developing climate-smart strategies in Mediterranean systems. For example, long-term monitoring of soil carbon content revealed that most crop systems have experienced a small increase in soil carbon since 1993, and increases in organically managed plots were substantially higher. As RRSAF continues to build upon this rich dataset from one of a very few long-term row crop experiments in Mediterranean ecosystems, it provides a testbed for identifying climate-smart solutions for these agronomically important ecosystems.

  7. CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Christopher J; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D

    2015-06-12

    The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  8. Evaluation of long-term geological and climatic changes in the Spanish programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, T.; Ortiz, J.E.; Cortes, A.; Delgado, A.

    2004-01-01

    The Bio-molecular Stratigraphy Laboratory of the Madrid School of Mines has been largely involved in the analysis of long-term paleo-environmental changes in the Iberian Peninsula during the Quaternary. Some of the research projects were UE funded: Paleo-climatological Revision of Climate Evolution in Western Mediterranean Region. Evaluation of Altered Scenarios, Evidence from Quaternary Infill Paleo-hydrogeology, Sequential Biosphere modelling function of Climate evolution models; Paleo-hydrogeological Data Analysis and Model Testing. Other projects were funded by the National Company for Radioactive Waste Management (ENRESA) and the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN): 'Paleo-climate reconstruction from Middle Pleistocene times through dating and isotopic analysis of tufa deposits'; 'Paleo-environmental evolution of the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula'; 'Paleo-climate'. On a minor scale the laboratory was also involved in the study of some argillaceous media: 'Organic Geochemistry of some deep Spanish argillaceous formations' and 'Effects of climatic change on the argillaceous series of the Duero and Ebro basins'. Here we will present some of the results obtained from tufa deposits analysis and paleo-environmental information from the Guadix-Baza Basin composite-stratigraphical-type-section study. (authors)

  9. Excavation-drier method of energy-peat extraction reduces long-term climatic impact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silvan, N.; Silvan, K.; Laine, J. [Finnish Forest Research Inst., Parkano (Finland)], e-mail: niko.silvan@metla.fi; Vaisanen, S.; Soukka, R. [Lappeenranta Univ.of Techology (Finland)

    2012-11-01

    Climatic impacts of energy-peat extraction are of increasing concern due to EU emissions trading requirements. A new excavation-drier peat extraction method has been developed to reduce the climatic impact and increase the efficiency of peat extraction. To quantify and compare the soil GHG fluxes of the excavation drier and the traditional milling methods, as well as the areas from which the energy peat is planned to be extracted in the future (extraction reserve area types), soil CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O fluxes were measured during 2006-2007 at three sites in Finland. Within each site, fluxes were measured from drained extraction reserve areas, extraction fields and stockpiles of both methods and additionally from the biomass driers of the excavation-drier method. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), described at a principal level in ISO Standards 14040:2006 and 14044:2006, was used to assess the long-term (100 years) climatic impact from peatland utilisation with respect to land use and energy production chains where utilisation of coal was replaced with peat. Coal was used as a reference since in many cases peat and coal can replace each other in same power plants. According to this study, the peat extraction method used was of lesser significance than the extraction reserve area type in regards to the climatic impact. However, the excavation-drier method seems to cause a slightly reduced climatic impact as compared with the prevailing milling method. (orig.)

  10. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system: report of breakout group 1 - climate forcings and feedbacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.; Bretherton, F.

    1995-01-01

    The assignment for Breakout Group A was to re-visit and expand upon the plenary session discussion on climate forcings and feedbacks and to develop a set of recommendations for each of the science disciplines or activities covered within this breakout category. Working guidelines for the group included identifying: (1) what has to be done; (2) why it has to be done, i.e. who is the customer? (3) the process for remedying deficiencies and, specifically, how to leverage the activities at operational centers; and (4) priorities (recognizing that it is premature to distinguish between major systems). The science ares addressed included: greenhouse gases (GHGs); radiation budget; water vapor; aerosols; clouds; precipitation; tropospheric ozone; and solar radiation. The role of climate satellites was also noted

  11. Incidence of climate on common frog breeding: Long-term and short-term changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neveu, André

    2009-09-01

    In Brittany (northwest France), the climate is showing a trend toward warming. This change is increasingly suspected to have a role in driving amphibian decline, but it is very difficult to determine at what level the climate affects the future of species. Recently, some studies have detected some direct effects on breeding phenology and indirect effects on energy allocation. The present study explores some of these effects on the common frog ( Rana temporaria) from 1984 to 2007. The results show two trends: a long-term change in breeding activities and a short-term influence due to the 2003 climatic anomaly. For the period of study, the start of egg-laying shows a precocity that was correlated with thermal conditions during the preceding 40 days as well as milder springs during the previous year. This degree of precocity is currently the highest found in Europe (+26.6 days). As a result of the 2003 heat wave, the clutch mean fecundity in 2004 was smaller than for other years, the fecundity rates were reduced and abortions were numerous (unlike other years). Moreover, young females were the smallest observed in recent years and some females seemed to exhibit a trade-off between fecundity and growth. Before or after egg-laying, female body condition and mean weight of mature ovules were both lower. The year 2005 appears as a transition period before the recovery in 2006-2007. The results show that climate warming endangers the vital rates of the common frog, while the 2003 climatic events seem more detrimental than the long-term warming trend.

  12. ISS Regenerative Life Support: Challenges and Success in the Quest for Long-Term Habitability in Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazley, Jesse A.

    2011-01-01

    This presentation will discuss the International Space Station s (ISS) Regenerative Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) operations with discussion of the on-orbit lessons learned, specifically regarding the challenges that have been faced as the system has expanded with a growing ISS crew. Over the 10 year history of the ISS, there have been numerous challenges, failures, and triumphs in the quest to keep the crew alive and comfortable. Successful operation of the ECLSS not only requires maintenance of the hardware, but also management of the station resources in case of hardware failure or missed re-supply. This involves effective communication between the primary International Partners (NASA and Roskosmos) and the secondary partners (JAXA and ESA) in order to keep a reserve of the contingency consumables and allow for re-supply of failed hardware. The ISS ECLSS utilizes consumables storage for contingency usage as well as longer-term regenerative systems, which allow for conservation of the expensive resources brought up by re-supply vehicles. This long-term hardware, and the interactions with software, was a challenge for Systems Engineers when they were designed and require multiple operational workarounds in order to function continuously. On a day-to-day basis, the ECLSS provides big challenges to the on console controllers. Main challenges involve the utilization of the resources that have been brought up by the visiting vehicles prior to undocking, balance of contributions between the International Partners for both systems and resources, and maintaining balance between the many interdependent systems, which includes providing the resources they need when they need it. The current biggest challenge for ECLSS is the Regenerative ECLSS system, which continuously recycles urine and condensate water into drinking water and oxygen. These systems were brought to full functionality on STS-126 (ULF-2) mission. Through system failures and recovery

  13. Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irena F. Creed; Adam T. Spargo; Julia A. Jones; Jim M. Buttle; Mary B. Adams; Fred D. Beall; Eric G. Booth; John L. Campbell; Dave Clow; Kelly Elder; Mark B. Green; Nancy B. Grimm; Chelcy Miniat; Patricia Ramlal; Amartya Saha; Stephen Sebestyen; Dave Spittlehouse; Shannon Sterling; Mark W. Williams; Rita Winkler; Huaxia. Yao

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary.We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm...

  14. The two-box model of climate: limitations and applications to planetary habitability and maximum entropy production studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Ralph D

    2010-05-12

    The 'two-box model' of planetary climate is discussed. This model has been used to demonstrate consistency of the equator-pole temperature gradient on Earth, Mars and Titan with what would be predicted from a principle of maximum entropy production (MEP). While useful for exposition and for generating first-order estimates of planetary heat transports, it has too low a resolution to investigate climate systems with strong feedbacks. A two-box MEP model agrees well with the observed day : night temperature contrast observed on the extrasolar planet HD 189733b.

  15. Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minji Seo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

  16. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  17. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  18. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  19. Habitable Trinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M. Dohm

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Habitable Trinity is a newly proposed concept of a habitable environment. This concept indicates that the coexistence of an atmosphere (consisting largely of C and N, an ocean (H and O, and a landmass (supplier of nutrients accompanying continuous material circulation between these three components driven by the Sun is one of the minimum requirements for life to emerge and evolve. The life body consists of C, O, H, N and other various nutrients, and therefore, the presence of water, only, is not a sufficient condition. Habitable Trinity environment must be maintained to supply necessary components for life body. Our Habitable Trinity concept can also be applied to other planets and moons such as Mars, Europa, Titan, and even exoplanets as a useful index in the quest for life-containing planetary bodies.

  20. ClimaDat: A long-term network to study at different scales climatic processes and interactions between climatic compartments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgui, Josep Anton; Agueda, Alba; Batet, Oscar; Curcoll, Roger; Ealo, Marina; Grossi, Claudia; Occhipinti, Paola; Sánchez-García, Laura; Arias, Rosa; Rodó, Xavi

    2013-04-01

    ClimaDat (www.climadat.es) is a pioneer project of the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) in collaboration with and funded by "la Caixa" Foundation. This project aims at studying the interactions between climate and ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales. The ClimaDat project consists of a network of eight long-term observatory stations distributed over Spain, installed at natural and remote areas, and covering different climatic domains (e.g. Mediterranean, Atlantic, subtropics) and natural systems (e.g. delta, karsts, high mountain areas). Data obtained in the ClimaDat network will help us to understand how ecosystems are influenced by and eventually might feedback different processes in the climate system. The point of focus of these studies will be taken into account regional-and-local conditions to understand climatic global scale eventsThe data gathered will be used to study the behavior of the global element cycles and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The network is expected to offer near real-time (NRT) data free for the scientific community. Instrumentation installed at these stations mainly consists of: CO2, CH4, H2O, CO, N2O, SF6 and 222Rn analyzers, isotopic CO2, CH4 and H2O analyzers, meteorological sensors, eddy covariance equipment, four-component radiometers, soil moisture and temperature sensors, and sap flow meters. Each station may have a more focused subset of all this equipment, depending on the specific characteristics of the site. Instrumentation selected for this network has been chosen to comply with standards established in international research infrastructure projects, such as ICOS (http://www.icos-infrastructure.eu/home) or InGOS (http://www.ingos-infrastructure.eu/). Preliminary data time-series of greenhouse gases concentrations and meteorological variables are presented in this study for three currently operational ClimaDat stations: the Natural Park of the Ebre Delta (lat 40.75° N - long 0.79° E), the

  1. Long-term climate policy implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Piontek, Franziska; Bertram, Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar

    2014-01-01

    It is often argued that fossil fuel subsidies hamper the transition towards a sustainable energy supply as they incentivize wasteful consumption. We assess implications of a subsidy phase-out for the mitigation of climate change and the low-carbon transformation of the energy system, using the global energy–economy model REMIND. We compare our results with those obtained by the International Energy Agency (based on the World Energy Model) and by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD-Model ENV-Linkages), providing the long-term perspective of an intertemporal optimization model. The results are analyzed in the two dimensions of subsidy phase-out and climate policy scenarios. We confirm short-term benefits of phasing-out fossil fuel subsidies as found in prior studies. However, these benefits are only sustained to a small extent in the long term, if dedicated climate policies are weak or nonexistent. Most remarkably we find that a removal of fossil fuel subsidies, if not complemented by other policies, can slow down a global transition towards a renewable based energy system. The reason is that world market prices for fossil fuels may drop due to a removal of subsidies. Thus, low carbon alternatives would encounter comparative disadvantages. - Highlights: • We assess implications of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the mitigation of climate change. • The removal of subsidies leads to a net-reduction in the use of energy. • Emission reductions contribute little to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm if not combined with climate policies. • Low carbon alternatives may encounter comparative disadvantages due to relative price changes at world markets

  2. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO 2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO 2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO 2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO 2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions. (letter)

  3. The Supergalactic Habitable Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Habitability in the local universe is examined. Constrained by metal abundance and exposure to sterilizing events, life as we know it requires significantly long periods of stable environmental conditions. Planets within galaxies undergoing major mergers, active AGN, starburst episodes, and merging black holes pose serious threats to long-term habitability. Importantly, the development of several layers of protection from high-energy particles such as a thick atmosphere, a strong planetary magnetic field, an astrosphere, and a galactic magnetic field is of great benefit. Factors such as star type and activity, planet type and composition, the location of a planet within its host galaxy, and even the location within a supercluster of galaxies can affect the potential habitability of planets. We discuss the concept of the Supergalactic Habitable Zone introduced by Mason and Biermann in terms of habitability in the local universe and find that galaxies near the center of the Virgo cluster, for example, have a much lower probability for the development of life as we know it as compared to locations in the Milky Way.

  4. Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

    2012-03-01

    Numerous studies indicate that the northern high latitudes are experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental change, including an increase in air temperatures (e.g. Serreze and Francis 2006), reduction of snow cover (e.g. Brown and Robinson 2011), ecosystem transformations and land cover changes (e.g. Callaghan et al 2011). Many of the potential environmental impacts of global warming in the high latitudes are associated with frozen ground, which occupies about 55% of the unglaciated land area in the northern hemisphere and consists of both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground. Frozen soils have a tremendous impact on hydrologic, climatic and biologic systems. Periodic freezing and thawing promote changes in soil structure, affect the surface and subsurface water cycle, and regulate the availability of nutrients in the soil for plants and biota that depend upon them. Freezing and thawing cycles can affect the decomposition of organic substances in the soil and greenhouse gas exchange between the atmosphere and land surface. Significant efforts have been devoted to permafrost-related studies, including the establishment of standardized observations (e.g. Romanovsky et al 2010, Shiklomanov et al 2008), modeling (e.g. Riseborough et al 2008), and climate-related feedback processes (e.g. Schuur et al 2008). Despite its vast extent and importance, seasonally frozen ground has received much less attention. One of the major obstacles in assessing changes in seasonally frozen ground is the lack of long-term data. In general, observations on soil temperature and freeze propagation are available for a limited area and involve a relatively short time period, precluding assessment of long-term, climate-driven change. A few known exceptions include shallow soil temperature and freeze/thaw depth observations conducted as part of the standard hydrometeorological monitoring system in China (e.g. Zhao et al 2004) and the Soviet Union/Russia (e.g. Gilichinsky et al 2000

  5. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. S. Lord

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs, long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term continuous projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature – SAT, comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years (by modelling SAT and precipitation. A range of CO2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next

  6. Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Tony N.T. [Building Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR (China)

    2010-02-15

    Past and future trends of human comfort in terms of heat and cold stresses under the local subtropical climates using measured meteorological data as well as predictions from general climate models were investigated. Summer discomfort showed an increasing trend (and winter discomfort a decreasing trend) over the past 41 years from 1968 to 2008. Monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures and moisture content predictions from a general climate model (MIROC3.2-H) were used to determine summer and winter discomfort for future years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). The 92-year (2009-2100) mean cold stress would be reduced from the 41-year (1968-2008) mean value of 8.7 to about three for both emissions scenarios. The 92-year mean heat stress would be 115.9 and 120.6 for B1 and A1B, respectively, representing 31.6% and 36.9% increase over the 1968-2008 long-term average of 88.1. These suggest that the already small winter heating requirement in subtropical Hong Kong would become even more insignificant in future years, whereas the increasing trend of summer discomfort would result in more cooling demand in the built environment. (author)

  7. Identification of relationships between climate indices and long-term precipitation in South Korea using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taereem; Shin, Ju-Young; Kim, Sunghun; Heo, Jun-Haeng

    2018-02-01

    Climate indices characterize climate systems and may identify important indicators for long-term precipitation, which are driven by climate interactions in atmosphere-ocean circulation. In this study, we investigated the climate indices that are effective indicators of long-term precipitation in South Korea, and examined their relationships based on statistical methods. Monthly total precipitation was collected from a total of 60 meteorological stations, and they were decomposed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to identify the inherent oscillating patterns or cycles. Cross-correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection were employed to select the significant climate indices at each station. The climate indices that affect the monthly precipitation in South Korea were identified based on the selection frequencies of the selected indices at all stations. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten-month lags and AMO index with no lag were identified as indicators of monthly precipitation in South Korea. Moreover, they indicate meaningful physical information (e.g. periodic oscillations and long-term trend) inherent in the monthly precipitation. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten- month lags was a strong indicator representing periodic oscillations in monthly precipitation. In addition, the long-term trend of the monthly precipitation could be explained by the AMO index. A multiple linear regression model was constructed to investigate the influences of the identified climate indices on the prediction of monthly precipitation. Three identified climate indices successfully explained the monthly precipitation in the winter dry season. Compared to the monthly precipitation in coastal areas, the monthly precipitation in inland areas showed stronger correlation to the identified climate indices.

  8. A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, V. R.

    2011-12-01

    On the premise that fast climate fluctuations up to and including the 11-year solar cycle play a negligible role in long-term climate forecasting, we remove these from the 160-year HADCRUT3 global land-sea temperature record and model the result as the sum of a log-raised-exponential (log(b+exp(t))) and two sine waves of respective periods 56 and 75 years coinciding in phase in 1925. The latter two can be understood equivalently as a 62-year-period "carrier" modulated with a 440-year period that peaked in 1925 and vanished in 1705. This model gives an excellent fit, explaining 98% of the variance (r^2) of long-term climate over the 160 years. We derive the first component as the composition of Arrhenius's 1896 logarithmic dependence of surface temperature on CO2 with Hofmann's 2009 raised-exponential dependence of CO2 on time, but interpret its fit to the data as the net anthropogenic contribution incorporating all greenhouse and aerosol emissions and relevant feedbacks, bearing in mind the rapid growth in both population and technology. The 56-year oscillation matches the largest component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while the 75-year one is near an oscillation often judged to be in the vicinity of 70 years. The expected 1705 cancellation is about two decades earlier than suggested by Gray et al's tree-ring proxy for the AMO during 1567-1990 [Gray GPL 31, L12205]. While there is no consensus on the origin of ocean oscillations, the oscillations in geomagnetic secular variation noted by Nagata and Rimitake in 1963 and Slaucitajs and Winch in 1965, of respective periods 77 years and 61 years, correspond strikingly with our 76-year oscillation and 62-year "carrier." This model has a number of benefits. Simplicity. It is easily explained to a lay audience in response to the frequently voiced concern that the temperature record is poorly correlated with the CO2 record alone. It shows that the transition from natural to anthropogenic influences on long-term

  9. Impact assessment of climate change on tourism in the Pacific small islands based on the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Utsumi, N.; Take, M.; Iida, A.

    2016-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new approach to assess the impact of climate change on the small oceanic islands in the Pacific. In the new approach, the change of the probabilities of various situations was projected with considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations, instead of projecting the most probable situation. The database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) is a database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments, which has the results of 100 ensemble simulations. We utilized the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which was (a long-term and high-resolution database) composed of results of 100 ensemble experiments. A new methodology, Multi Threshold Ensemble Assessment (MTEA), was developed using the d4PDF in order to assess the impact of climate change. We focused on the impact of climate change on tourism because it has played an important role in the economy of the Pacific Islands. The Yaeyama Region, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan, was selected as the case study site. Two kinds of impact were assessed: change in probability of extreme climate phenomena and tourist satisfaction associated with weather. The database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and the questionnaire survey conducted by a local government were used for the assessment. The result indicated that the strength of extreme events would be increased, whereas the probability of occurrence would be decreased. This change should result in increase of the number of clear days and it could contribute to improve the tourist satisfaction.

  10. Habit persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther Møller, Stig

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses an iterated GMM approach to estimate and test the consumption based habit persistence model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) on the US stock market. The empirical evidence shows that the model is able to explain the size premium, but fails to explain the value premium. Further...

  11. Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

    2017-06-01

    Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Habit in Personality and Social Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Wendy

    2017-11-01

    Habits are largely absent from modern social and personality psychology. This is due to outdated perspectives that placed habits in conflict with goals. In modern theorizing, habits are represented in memory as implicit context-response associations, and they guide responding in conjunction with goals. Habits thus have important implications for our field. Emerging research shows that habits are an important mechanism by which people self-regulate and achieve long-term goals. Also, habits change through specific interventions, such as changes in context cues. I speculate that understanding of habits also holds promise for reducing intergroup discrimination and for understanding lay theories of the causes for action. In short, by recognizing habit, the field gains understanding of a central mechanism by which actions persist in daily life.

  13. The role of tectonic uplift, climate, and vegetation in the long-term terrestrial phosphorous cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Buendía

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Phosphorus (P is a crucial element for life and therefore for maintaining ecosystem productivity. Its local availability to the terrestrial biosphere results from the interaction between climate, tectonic uplift, atmospheric transport, and biotic cycling. Here we present a mathematical model that describes the terrestrial P-cycle in a simple but comprehensive way. The resulting dynamical system can be solved analytically for steady-state conditions, allowing us to test the sensitivity of the P-availability to the key parameters and processes. Given constant inputs, we find that humid ecosystems exhibit lower P availability due to higher runoff and losses, and that tectonic uplift is a fundamental constraint. In particular, we find that in humid ecosystems the biotic cycling seem essential to maintain long-term P-availability. The time-dependent P dynamics for the Franz Josef and Hawaii chronosequences show how tectonic uplift is an important constraint on ecosystem productivity, while hydroclimatic conditions control the P-losses and speed towards steady-state. The model also helps describe how, with limited uplift and atmospheric input, as in the case of the Amazon Basin, ecosystems must rely on mechanisms that enhance P-availability and retention. Our novel model has a limited number of parameters and can be easily integrated into global climate models to provide a representation of the response of the terrestrial biosphere to global change.

  14. Farmers' climate information needs for long-term adaptive decisions: A case study of almonds in CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Pathak, T. B.; Kerr, A. C.; Doll, D.

    2016-12-01

    Despite advances in climate modeling and projections, several sources report that current tools and models are not widely used in the agriculture sector. Farmers, depending on their local context, require information on very specific climatic metrics such as start of rains during the planting season, number of low temperature days during the growing season, etc. However, such specific climatic information is either not available, and/or is not synthesized and communicated in a manner that is accessible to these decision-makers. This research aims to bridge the gap between climate information and decision-making needs, by providing an improved understanding of what farmers' consider as relevant climate information, and how these needs compare with current modeling capabilities. Almond is a perennial crop, so any changes in climate within its 25-30 year lifetime can have an adverse impact on crop yield. This makes almond growers vulnerable to medium and long-term climate change. Hence, providing appropriate information on future climate projections can help guide their decisions on crop types & varieties, as well as management practices that are better adapted to future climatic conditions. Semi-structured exploratory interviews have been conducted with almond growers, farm advisors, and other industry stakeholders, with three goals: (1) to understand how growers have used climate information in the past; (2) to identify key climatic variables that are relevant - including appropriate temporal scales and acceptable uncertainty levels; and (3) to understand communication methods that could improve the usability of climate information for farm-level decision-making. The interviews showcased a great diversity amongst growers in terms of how they used weather/climate information. Discussions also indicated that there was a potential for climate information to impact long-term decisions, but only if it is provided within the right context, terminology, and communication

  15. Consideration of environmental change in the safety evaluation: Long-term climate scenarios in the Iberian Peninsula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo Jimenez, F.; Ruiz Rivas, C.

    1997-01-01

    The main objective of this report is twofold. On the one hand, to define the most likely sequences of climate states in the Iberian Peninsula for a period of 125 Ka into the future, to the next interglacial stage, 125 Ka AP; on the other hand, to establish potential climate scenarios during such a period of time determining also the variability ranges of primary climate and climate-related variables of interest to the post-closure performance assessment and underground repository safety evaluations. The report reviews the potential effects of environmental changes on the performance of underground radioactive waste repositories, emphasizing the consideration given to long-term climatic changes in radioactive waste disposal system safety evaluations. (Author)

  16. Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

    2012-01-01

    Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

  17. Experimental Forests and climate change: views of long-term employees on ecological change and the role of Experimental Forests and Ranges in understanding and adapting to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurie Yung; Mason Bradbury; Daniel R. Williams

    2012-01-01

    In this project, we examined the views of 21 long-term employees on climate change in 14 Rocky Mountain Research Station Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFRs). EFRs were described by employees as uniquely positioned to advance knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies due to the research integrity they provide for long-term studies, the ability to...

  18. Climate-vegetation-soil interactions and long-term hydrologic partitioning: signatures of catchment co-evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Troch

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Budyko (1974 postulated that long-term catchment water balance is controlled to first order by the available water and energy. This leads to the interesting question of how do landscape characteristics (soils, geology, vegetation and climate properties (precipitation, potential evaporation, number of wet and dry days interact at the catchment scale to produce such a simple and predictable outcome of hydrological partitioning? Here we use a physically-based hydrologic model separately parameterized in 12 US catchments across a climate gradient to decouple the impact of climate and landscape properties to gain insight into the role of climate-vegetation-soil interactions in long-term hydrologic partitioning. The 12 catchment models (with different paramterizations are subjected to the 12 different climate forcings, resulting in 144 10 yr model simulations. The results are analyzed per catchment (one catchment model subjected to 12 climates and per climate (one climate filtered by 12 different model parameterization, and compared to water balance predictions based on Budyko's hypothesis (E/P = ϕ (Ep/P; E: evaporation, P: precipitation, Ep: potential evaporation. We find significant anti-correlation between average deviations of the evaporation index (E/P computed per catchment vs. per climate, compared to that predicted by Budyko. Catchments that on average produce more E/P have developed in climates that on average produce less E/P, when compared to Budyko's prediction. Water and energy seasonality could not explain these observations, confirming previous results reported by Potter et al. (2005. Next, we analyze which model (i.e., landscape filter characteristics explain the catchment's tendency to produce more or less E/P. We find that the time scale that controls subsurface storage release explains the observed trend. This time scale combines several geomorphologic and hydraulic soil properties. Catchments with relatively longer

  19. Long-term climate change assessment study plan for the Hanford Site permanent isolation Barrier Development Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.L.; Chatters, J.C.; Waugh, W.J.

    1992-07-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program (Barrier Development Program) was organized to develop the technology needed to provide an in-place disposal capability for the Hanford Site (Adams and Wing 1986; Wig and Gee 1990). The goal of the Barrier Development Program is to provide defensible evidence that final barrier design(s) will adequately control water infiltration; plant and animal intrusion; and wind and water erosion for a minimum of 1,000 yr and isolate wastes from the accessible environment and warm inadvertent human intruders using markers. This document describes the long-term climate change studies planned to support the Barrier Development Program. The plan outlines a multi-year and multi-discipline approach to assess long-term climate change issues and to help optimize the design of the permanent isolation barriers. A multi-disciplinary approach to climatic data acquisition will be responsible for obtaining needed information for concurrent barrier tasks and for developing a local climate forecast model. This model will couple past climate patterns with models of regional and global climate drivers to provide bounding conditions for barrier performance assessment analyses

  20. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

    2012-01-01

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  1. Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies

  2. Minimizing the regrets of long-term urban floodplain management decisions under deeply uncertain climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, J. S.; Kirshen, P. H.; Vogel, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Making long-term floodplain management decisions under uncertain climate change is a major urban planning challenge of the 21stcentury. To support these efforts, we introduce a screening-level optimization model that identifies adaptation portfolios by minimizing the regrets associated with their flood-control and damage costs under different climate change trajectories that are deeply uncertain, i.e. have probabilities that cannot be specified plausibly. This mixed integer program explicitly considers the coupled damage-reduction impacts of different floodwall designs and property-scale investments (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing of basements, permanent retreat and insurance), recommends implementation schedules, and assesses impacts to stakeholders residing in three types of homes. An application to a stylized municipality illuminates many nonlinear system dynamics stemming from large fixed capital costs, infrastructure design thresholds, and discharge-depth-damage relationships. If stakeholders tolerate mild damage, floodwalls that fully protect a community from large design events are less cost-effective than portfolios featuring both smaller floodwalls and property-scale measures. Potential losses of property tax revenue from permanent retreat motivate municipal property-tax initiatives for adaptation financing. Yet, insurance incentives for first-floor elevation may discourage locally financed floodwalls, in turn making lower-income residents more vulnerable to severe flooding. A budget constraint analysis underscores the benefits of flexible floodwall designs with low incremental expansion costs while near-optimal solutions demonstrate the scheduling flexibility of many property-scale measures. Finally, an equity analysis shows the importance of evaluating the overpayment and under-design regrets of recommended adaptation portfolios for each stakeholder and contrasts them to single-scenario model results.

  3. Exoplanet habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seager, Sara

    2013-05-03

    The search for exoplanets includes the promise to eventually find and identify habitable worlds. The thousands of known exoplanets and planet candidates are extremely diverse in terms of their masses or sizes, orbits, and host star type. The diversity extends to new kinds of planets, which are very common yet have no solar system counterparts. Even with the requirement that a planet's surface temperature must be compatible with liquid water (because all life on Earth requires liquid water), a new emerging view is that planets very different from Earth may have the right conditions for life. The broadened possibilities will increase the future chances of discovering an inhabited world.

  4. Long-term corporate climate change targets: What could they deliver?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gouldson, Andy; Sullivan, Rory

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Increasingly, companies are setting long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. ► Many of these corporate targets appear to exceed those being set by national governments. ► Achieving these corporate targets relies on energy prices remaining high. ► Weaknesses in corporate reporting make it difficult to tell whether targets are being achieved. -- Abstract: Driven by the rising cost of energy, stakeholder pressure and the expectation that governments will continue to implement policy measures directed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, an increasing number of companies have set targets to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These commitments raise two important questions. The first is whether they can be considered – individually or collectively – to be an appropriate response to the threat presented by climate change. The second is whether they are dependable; that is, can policy makers and other stakeholders can rely on companies to deliver on the commitments that they have made? This article examines these two questions using the case of the UK supermarket sector to illustrate and explain the issues at stake and, more generally, to examine the contribution that these types of voluntary commitments can make to wider public policy goals on climate change. The reasons for focusing on the UK supermarket sector are that the companies in this sector are some of the largest retailers in the world, they are significant emitters (their direct emissions account for 0.9% of UK carbon emissions, and some indications suggest that their indirect emissions account for ten times as much), and they are less heavily regulated that other sectors with comparable carbon footprints. The article concludes that the targets being set voluntarily by companies in this sector align with, or may even exceed, the climate change policy goals being set by national governments. Moreover, the article concludes that the companies targets are plausible and

  5. Evaluation of outdoor human thermal sensation of local climate zones based on long-term database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, János; Skarbit, Nóra; Gál, Tamás

    2018-02-01

    This study gives a comprehensive picture on the diurnal and seasonal general outdoor human thermal sensation levels in different urban quarters based on long-term (almost 3 years) data series from urban and rural areas of Szeged, Hungary. It is supplemented with a case study dealing with an extreme heat wave period which is more and more frequent in the last decades in the study area. The intra-urban comparison is based on a thermal aspect classification of the surface, namely, the local climate zone (LCZ) system, on an urban meteorological station network and on the utilization of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) comfort index with categories calibrated to the local population. The selected stations represent sunlit areas well inside the LCZ areas. The results show that the seasonal and annual average magnitudes of the thermal load exerted by LCZs in the afternoon and evening follow their LCZ numbers. It is perfectly in line with the LCZ concept originally concentrating only on air temperature ( T air) differences between the zones. Our results justified the subdivision of urban areas into LCZs and give significant support to the application possibilities of the LCZ concept as a broader term covering different thermal phenomena.

  6. Ca isotopes, chemical weathering, and geomorphic controls on long-term climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J.; Jacobson, A. D.; Holmden, C. E.; Craw, D.

    2009-12-01

    Calcium isotope geochemistry (δ44Ca) offers a unique opportunity to directly quantify proportions of riverine Ca originating from silicate versus carbonate weathering, which is essential for understanding how geomorphic processes affecting landscape evolution, such as tectonic uplift and glaciation, influence the long-term cycling of atmospheric CO2. We measured the elemental and δ44Ca chemistry of river and rock samples from the New Zealand Southern Alps. In combination with our geochemical data, we used runoff and suspended sediment fluxes to elucidate relationships between chemical weathering, mechanical erosion, and long-term climate. The S. Alps have uniform bedrock chemistry but significant tectonic and climatic gradients. West of the main topographic divide, watersheds drain schist and experience high runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. East of the main divide, watersheds drain greywacke or schist and experience lower runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. Glaciated watersheds with high erosion rates are present throughout the mountain range. Both schist and greywacke contain up to 3% metamorphic and hydrothermal calcite. Waters exhibit two-component mixing between calcite and silicate end-members when plotted as δ44Ca versus Ca/Sr. Scatter about the mixing curve is generally smaller than the analytical uncertainty of the measurements and likely reflects variability of the end-member compositions rather than fractionation. We used the mixing relationships to calculate percentages of Ca from silicate weathering. Rivers draining greywacke average 27.6% of Ca from silicate weathering with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 41.8 and 19.5%, respectively. Rivers draining schist average 9.8% with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 17.7 and 3.9%, respectively. Although Ca fluxes are larger west of the main divide where erosion and runoff are higher, the percentage of Ca from silicate weathering is smaller. Hence, long-term atmospheric CO2

  7. Climate evolution on the terrestrial planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasting, J.F.; Toon, O.B.

    1989-01-01

    The present comparative evaluation of the long-term evolution of the Venus, earth, and Mars climates suggests that the earth's climate has remained temperate over most of its history despite a secular solar luminosity increase in virtue of a negative-feedback cycle based on atmospheric CO 2 levels and climate. The examination of planetary climate histories suggests that an earth-sized planet should be able to maintain liquid water on its surface at orbital distances in the 0.9-1.5 AU range, comparable to the orbit of Mars; this, in turn, implies that there may be many other habitable planets within the Galaxy

  8. Are "Habitable" Exoplanets Really Habitable? -A perspective from atmospheric loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, C.; Huang, Z.; Jin, M.; Lingam, M.; Ma, Y. J.; Toth, G.; van der Holst, B.; Airapetian, V.; Cohen, O.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    In the last two decades, the field of exoplanets has witnessed a tremendous creative surge. Research in exoplanets now encompasses a wide range of fields ranging from astrophysics to heliophysics and atmospheric science. One of the primary objectives of studying exoplanets is to determine the criteria for habitability, and whether certain exoplanets meet these requirements. The classical definition of the Habitable Zone (HZ) is the region around a star where liquid water can exist on the planetary surface given sufficient atmospheric pressure. However, this definition largely ignores the impact of the stellar wind and stellar magnetic activity on the erosion of an exoplanet's atmosphere. Amongst the many factors that determine habitability, understanding the mechanisms of atmospheric loss is of paramount importance. We will discuss the impact of exoplanetary space weather on climate and habitability, which offers fresh insights concerning the habitability of exoplanets, especially those orbiting M-dwarfs, such as Proxima b and the TRAPPIST-1 system. For each case, we will demonstrate the importance of the exoplanetary space weather on atmospheric ion loss and habitability.

  9. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  10. Advice on a long-term strategy on energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    A study was conducted to examine how climate change would affect Canada's economy and environment, with a focus on what a low carbon future might look like for Canada over the next 45 years. Two questions formed the basis of this research that examined how Canada can protect and enhance its national interest with regard to energy and climate change issues between now and the mid-twenty first century and what Canada currently needs to do in order to achieve this. A scenario was developed as part of this study in order to demonstrate one way in which Canada can achieve a significant reduction in energy related GHG emissions by 2050. For illustrative purposes, it was necessary to have a quantifiable definition of what a significant reduction would look like, and therefore, it was decided that a long-term domestic reduction of energy-related GHG emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 would be used as it is roughly consistent with similar targets adopted or being considered by other OECD countries. The scope of this analysis covered energy-related GHG emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that result from the production and consumption of fossil fuels. The paper provided a summary of key findings from the study and discussed Canada's unique environmental challenges. Study characteristics, scope of the analysis and assumptions were also identified. A 60 per cent GHG reduction wedge diagram was provided to illustrate the scenario under consideration. Strategic priorities were also presented identifying where transformations will need to occur. These priorities include energy efficiency improvements, carbon capture and sequestration in the oil and gas sector, and electricity generation. The paper also provided several conclusions and next steps. One of the principal conclusions was that there can be a domestic solution to making significant GHG reductions by mid-century, but significant reductions can be achieved only if energy is used more efficiently and

  11. Testing causes for long-term changes in carbon cycling and climate during the early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komar, N.; Zeebe, R. E.; Dickens, G. R.

    2013-12-01

    The late Paleocene to the early Eocene (˜58-52 Ma) was marked by significant changes in global climate and carbon cycling. Among the evidence for these changes, stable isotope records reveal a prominent decrease of δ13C and δ18O (in both surface and deep ocean), indicating a reorganization in the long-term global carbon cycle and a long-term warming trend (˜4°C), respectively. Concurrently, deep-sea carbonate records at several sites indicate a deepening of the calcite compensation depth (CCD). Here, we investigate possible causes (e.g., increased volcanic degassing, decreased net organic burial, and accelerated dissociation of gas hydrate) for these observations, but from a new perspective. The basic model employed is a modified version of GEOCARB III. However, we have coupled this well-known geochemical model to LOSCAR, a model that enables simulation of seawater carbonate chemistry, the CCD, and ocean δ13C. We have also added a gas hydrate capacitor that can account for the storage and release of methane from the seafloor over millions of years. We further consider accurate input data (e.g., δ13C of carbonate) on a currently accepted time scale that spans an interval much longer than the perturbation. Several different scenarios are investigated with the goal of consistency amongst inferred changes in temperature, the CCD, and surface ocean and deep ocean δ13C. The results strongly suggest that a decrease in net organic carbon burial drove carbon cycle changes during the late Paleocene and early Eocene, although an increase in volcanic activity might have contributed. Importantly, a drop in net organic carbon burial may represent increased oxidation of previously deposited organic carbon, such as stored in peat or gas hydrates. The model successfully recreates trends in Earth surface warming, as inferred from δ18O records, the CCD, and δ13C. At the moment, however, our coupled modeling effort cannot reproduce the magnitude of change in all these

  12. A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manfred A. Lange

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA, the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the next. Our approach was applied to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield and, hence, to isolate the effect of the observed climate change between 1961 and 2006 on three widely crops grown in three Mediterranean countries—namely wheat, corn and potato—using national-level crop yield observations’ time-series. Obtained results show that the proposed methodology provides us with a ground basis to improve substantially our understanding of crop yield response to climate change at a scale that is relevant to large-scale estimations of agricultural production and to food security analyses; and therefore to reduce uncertainties in estimations of potential climate change effects on agricultural production. Furthermore, a comparison of outputs of our methodology and FDA outputs yielded a difference in terms of maize production in Egypt, for example, that exceeds the production of some neighbouring countries.

  13. Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

  14. Long-term environmental drivers of DOC fluxes: Linkages between management, hydrology and climate in a subtropical coastal estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Peter; Briceño, Henry; Jaffé, Rudolf

    2016-12-01

    Urban and agricultural development of the South Florida peninsula has disrupted historic freshwater flow in the Everglades, a hydrologically connected ecosystem stretching from central Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Current system-scale restoration efforts aim to restore natural hydrologic regimes to reestablish pre-drainage ecosystem functioning through increased water availability, quality and timing. Aquatic transport of carbon in this ecosystem, primarily as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling and food-web dynamics, and will be affected both by water management policies and climate change. To better understand DOC dynamics in South Florida estuaries and how hydrology, climate and water management may affect them, 14 years of monthly data collected in the Shark River estuary were used to examine DOC flux dynamics in a broader environmental context. Multivariate statistical methods were applied to long-term datasets for hydrology, water quality and climate to untangle the interconnected environmental drivers that control DOC export at monthly and annual scales. DOC fluxes were determined to be primarily controlled by hydrology but also by seasonality and long-term climate patterns and episodic weather events. A four-component model (salinity, rainfall, inflow, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) capable of predicting DOC fluxes (R2 = 0.84, p water management and salinity.

  15. Giant Planets: Good Neighbors for Habitable Worlds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakarakos, Nikolaos; Eggl, Siegfried; Dobbs-Dixon, Ian

    2018-04-01

    The presence of giant planets influences potentially habitable worlds in numerous ways. Massive celestial neighbors can facilitate the formation of planetary cores and modify the influx of asteroids and comets toward Earth analogs later on. Furthermore, giant planets can indirectly change the climate of terrestrial worlds by gravitationally altering their orbits. Investigating 147 well-characterized exoplanetary systems known to date that host a main-sequence star and a giant planet, we show that the presence of “giant neighbors” can reduce a terrestrial planet’s chances to remain habitable, even if both planets have stable orbits. In a small fraction of systems, however, giant planets slightly increase the extent of habitable zones provided that the terrestrial world has a high climate inertia. In providing constraints on where giant planets cease to affect the habitable zone size in a detrimental fashion, we identify prime targets in the search for habitable worlds.

  16. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  17. Long-term solar activity and its implications to the heliosphere, geomagnetic activity, and the Earth’s climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanskanen Eija

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The Sun’s long-term magnetic variability is the primary driver of space climate. This variability is manifested not only in the long-observed and dramatic change of magnetic fields on the solar surface, but also in the changing solar radiative output across all wavelengths. The Sun’s magnetic variability also modulates the particulate and magnetic fluxes in the heliosphere, which determine the interplanetary conditions and impose significant electromagnetic forces and effects upon planetary atmospheres. All these effects due to the changing solar magnetic fields are also relevant for planetary climates, including the climate of the Earth. The ultimate cause of solar variability, at time scales much shorter than stellar evolutionary time scales, i.e., at decadal to centennial and, maybe, even millennial or longer scales, has its origin in the solar dynamo mechanism. Therefore, in order to better understand the origin of space climate, one must analyze different proxies of solar magnetic variability and develop models of the solar dynamo mechanism that correctly produce the observed properties of the magnetic fields. This Preface summarizes the most important findings of the papers of this Special Issue, most of which were presented in the Space Climate-4 Symposium organized in 2011 in Goa, India.

  18. A Long-Term and Reproducible Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Record for Climate Studies and Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, G.; Meier, W. N.; Scott, D. J.; Savoie, M. H.

    2013-01-01

    A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

  19. Climate Considerations in Long-Term Safety Assessments for Nuclear Waste Repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Brandefelt, Jenny; Claesson Liljedahl, Lillemor [Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering AB, Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: jens-ove.naslund@skb.se

    2013-05-15

    For a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel planned in Sweden, the safety assessment covers up to 1 million years. Climate scenarios range from high-end global warming for the coming 100 000 years, through deep permafrost, to large ice sheets during glacial conditions. In contrast, in an existing repository for short-lived waste the activity decays to low levels within a few tens of thousands of years. The shorter assessment period, 100 000 years, requires more focus on climate development over the coming tens of thousands of years, including the earliest possibility for permafrost growth and freezing of the engineered system. The handling of climate and climate change in safety assessments must be tailor-made for each repository concept and waste type. However, due to the uncertain future climate development on these vast time scales, all safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories require a range of possible climate scenarios.

  20. Climate considerations in long-term safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Näslund, Jens-Ove; Brandefelt, Jenny; Liljedahl, Lillemor Claesson

    2013-05-01

    For a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel planned in Sweden, the safety assessment covers up to 1 million years. Climate scenarios range from high-end global warming for the coming 100 000 years, through deep permafrost, to large ice sheets during glacial conditions. In contrast, in an existing repository for short-lived waste the activity decays to low levels within a few tens of thousands of years. The shorter assessment period, 100 000 years, requires more focus on climate development over the coming tens of thousands of years, including the earliest possibility for permafrost growth and freezing of the engineered system. The handling of climate and climate change in safety assessments must be tailor-made for each repository concept and waste type. However, due to the uncertain future climate development on these vast time scales, all safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories require a range of possible climate scenarios.

  1. Long-term evolution of the Campine area in Northern Belgium: past and expected future evolution of tectonics and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Craen, M.; Beerten, K.; Brassinnes, S.; Wouters, L.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. Disposal of radioactive waste in a geological repository involves the reliance, now and in the long-term future, on the geological and hydrogeological environment. In preparation of the safety and feasibility case 1 (SFC1), the long-term geodynamic evolution of Boom Clay and its geological environment in the Campine area in northern Belgium is studied. Time frames considered are the geological past and the future 1 million year. The idea is that the past long-term evolution can be extended to predict what might happen in the future. In this paper, we first focusses on the past long-term tectonic evolution of the Campine area, and make an extrapolation for the future 1 Ma. We then focus on past climate evolution, and similarly, an assessment of possible future climate conditions is made for the Campine area within the next 1 Ma. Another paper focusses on the combined effect of tectonics and climate on the evolution of the surface environment in the Campine area for the next 1 Ma, with respect to geomorphological, pedological and hydrological processes. During the Palaeozoic, the geodynamic evolution of the Campine area was mainly determined by tectonics. A large intermittently subsiding sedimentary basin existed in which large amounts of sediments were deposited, and which was protected by the Brabant Massif from major oro-genetic compressive processes. Palaeozoic sediments in the Campine Basin reach a maximum thickness of 4000 m. During Mesozoic and Cenozoic, its geodynamic evolution was the interactive result of plate tectonics, sea level changes and climate evolution. Further subsidence resulted in a thick sequence of sedimentary deposits. Mesozoic sediments are found throughout the Campine area while remains of Jurassic-Triassic sediments are found only in the central Roer Valley Graben in the east. The Cenozoic is characterised by a succession of sub-horizontal layers of Tertiary clays and sands and covered by

  2. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

  3. Long-term streamflow response to climatic variability in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenping Wang; Zhiqiang Zhang; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Huayong Zhang; Jianlao Li; Manliang Zhang

    2008-01-01

    The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12-km2 watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province...

  4. Climate Change Impacts on pricing Long-Term Flood Insurance: A Comprehensive Study for the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.

    2011-01-01

    Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk

  5. Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to

  6. Long-term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, J M; Frey, S D; DeAngelis, K M; Werner, W J; Bernard, M J; Bowles, F P; Pold, G; Knorr, M A; Grandy, A S

    2017-10-06

    In a 26-year soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon cycling to investigate the potential consequences for the climate system. We found that soil warming results in a four-phase pattern of soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, with phases of substantial soil carbon loss alternating with phases of no detectable loss. Several factors combine to affect the timing, magnitude, and thermal acclimation of soil carbon loss. These include depletion of microbially accessible carbon pools, reductions in microbial biomass, a shift in microbial carbon use efficiency, and changes in microbial community composition. Our results support projections of a long-term, self-reinforcing carbon feedback from mid-latitude forests to the climate system as the world warms. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  7. Long-Term Memory: A Natural Mechanism for the Clustering of Extreme Events and Anomalous Residual Times in Climate Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Eichner, Jan F.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Havlin, Shlomo

    2005-01-01

    We study the statistics of the return intervals between extreme events above a certain threshold in long-term persistent records. We find that the long-term memory leads (i)to a stretched exponential distribution of the return intervals, (ii)to a pronounced clustering of extreme events, and (iii)to an anomalous behavior of the mean residual time to the next event that depends on the history and increases with the elapsed time in a counterintuitive way. We present an analytical scaling approach and demonstrate that all these features can be seen in long climate records. The phenomena should also occur in heartbeat records, Internet traffic, and stock market volatility and have to be taken into account for an efficient risk evaluation.

  8. Long-term monitoring of an amphibian community after a climate change- and infectious disease-driven species extirpation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, Jaime; Fernández-Beaskoetxea, Saioa; Garner, Trenton W J; Carrascal, Luis María

    2018-02-15

    Infectious disease and climate change are considered major threats to biodiversity and act as drivers behind the global amphibian decline. This is, to a large extent, based on short-term studies that are designed to detect the immediate and strongest biodiversity responses to a threatening process. What few long-term studies are available, although typically focused on single species, report outcomes that often diverge significantly from the short-term species responses. Here, we report the results of an 18-year survey of an amphibian community exposed to both climate warming and the emergence of lethal chytridiomycosis. Our study shows that the impacts of infectious disease are ongoing but restricted to two out of nine species that form the community, despite the fact all species can become infected with the fungus. Climate warming appears to be affecting four out of the nine species, but the response of three of these is an increase in abundance. Our study supports a decreasing role of infectious disease on the community, and an increasing and currently positive effect of climate warming. We caution that if the warming trends continue, the net positive effect will turn negative as amphibian breeding habitat becomes unavailable as water bodies dry, a pattern that already may be underway. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Pei

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China. By using updated data and statistical methods, the study solved several unanswered questions from past research about the relationship between climate change and the nomadic migration, especially over the long term and on a large spatial scale. The study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively verify the following causal pathway: climate change â†' nomadic migration â†' conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists. In the long term, precipitation was a statistically more influential factor on nomadic migration than temperature in historical China. How climate change affects the migration of nomadic minorities in the long term is theoretically explained based on the Push-Pull model as well as statistical evidence.

  10. Tree ring imprints of long-term changes in climate in western ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    2009-10-26

    Oct 26, 2009 ... tree-ring sampling sites poses difficulty in calibrating tree-ring data against climate data especially precipitation for its strong spatial .... drained soils are its primary ecological requirement. The .... rapid radiation loss at night.

  11. Ca isotopes reveal weak control of tectonic uplift on long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J.; Jacobson, A. D.; Holmden, C. E.; Craw, D.

    2010-12-01

    Ca-Mg silicate weathering consumes atmospheric CO2 over geological timescales (≥106 yr) whereas carbonate weathering has no effect. High Ca fluxes from active orogens have been used to argue that mountain uplift is a disproportionately large CO2 sink. To test this hypothesis, it is essential to determine proportions of Ca from silicate versus carbonate weathering. High precision measurement of Ca isotopes (δ44/40Ca) provides a novel method to directly quantify Ca sources. To this end, we examined δ44/40Ca in rivers draining the Southern Alps of New Zealand. The Southern Alps have large tectonic and climatic gradients but nearly constant bedrock chemistry. West of the main topographic divide, uplift and precipitation rates are high, and steep, fast-flowing rivers drain schist. East of the divide, uplift and precipitation rates are low, and low-gradient, braided rivers drain either schist or greywacke. Both schist and greywacke contain up to 3% hydrothermal and metamorphic calcite. Glaciers feed several schist and greywacke catchments. Examined as δ44/40Ca versus Sr/Ca, values measured for carbonate and silicate end-members define two-component mixing envelopes. Rivers west of the divide plot within the envelope, ruling out isotopic fractionation as a factor for these streams. Several rivers east of the divide are 40Ca enriched relative to the envelope. In-situ fractionation of stream water Ca cannot explain this pattern because fractionation is expected to preferentially remove 40Ca. We measured δ42/44Ca ratios to test if chemical weathering preferentially releases 40Ca. When examined as δ40/44Ca versus δ42/44Ca, the data only display mass-dependent isotope effects. Ca in grass and the exchangeable pool of shallow soils is enriched in 40Ca relative to waters and bedrock. This Ca defines a third mixing end-member that contributes 15-30% of the Ca in rivers east of the divide. Evidence of the plant-fractionated signal likely reflects water residence times

  12. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, P.N.; Baker, B.L.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Rudeen, D.K.

    1993-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing head values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance

  13. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, P.N.; Baker, B.L.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Rudeen, D.K.

    1994-03-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing had values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance

  14. Long-term persistence, density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary D. Grossman; Gary Sundin; Robert E. Ratajczak

    2016-01-01

    SummaryWe used long-term population data for rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), a numerically dominant member of a stochastically organised fish assemblage, to evaluate the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent processes to population...

  15. Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

    2017-01-01

    European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

  16. Impact of long-term climate change on a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.; Kautsky, U.; Moren, L.; Wallroth, T.

    2001-05-01

    The radioactivity of spent nuclear fuel will decay over a period of time (100,000 years or longer) in which we expect major environmental change. Climatically driven changes such as glaciation, permafrost and changes in sea level will affect the subsurface environment and must therefore be considered in performance and safety assessments. We regard the state of climate to be determined by the climate system, comprising the atmosphere, the biosphere, the oceans, the ice sheets and the surface of the lithosphere. Climate can change as a consequence of external forcing or as a consequence of the internal dynamics. The changes in the past show a complex cyclical pattern with repetitive periodicities and magnitudes of change. On the relatively long time scale which is of concern in this report climate changes are believed to be triggered by changes in insolation due to cyclical changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. This is referred to as the Milankovitch theory or the astronomical climate theory. A brief review of our knowledge of the climate system, proxy records and observations of past climate change is presented in the report. The most extreme departures from modern environmental conditions in Sweden have occurred during the cold, glacial cycles with ice sheets covering the whole of Sweden. As part of SKB's palaeohydrogeological research programme a time-dependent, thermo-mechanically coupled model of ice sheet behaviour has been developed in order to simulate past fluctuations of the Scandinavian ice sheet and forecast its future. The ice sheet model can calculate the temperature field and isostatic response of the underlying bedrock, subglacial and proglacial permafrost and the subglacial melt rates. By connecting the glaciation model with hydrogeological and rock mechanical models, the response of the subsurface to climate change can be investigated. In this report the climate-driven environmental changes are represented as a series of successive climate

  17. Impact of long-term climate change on a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulton, G.S. [Edinburgh Univ. (United Kingdom); Kautsky, U.; Moren, L. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Wallroth, T. [Bergab Consulting Geologists (Sweden)

    2001-05-01

    The radioactivity of spent nuclear fuel will decay over a period of time (100,000 years or longer) in which we expect major environmental change. Climatically driven changes such as glaciation, permafrost and changes in sea level will affect the subsurface environment and must therefore be considered in performance and safety assessments. We regard the state of climate to be determined by the climate system, comprising the atmosphere, the biosphere, the oceans, the ice sheets and the surface of the lithosphere. Climate can change as a consequence of external forcing or as a consequence of the internal dynamics. The changes in the past show a complex cyclical pattern with repetitive periodicities and magnitudes of change. On the relatively long time scale which is of concern in this report climate changes are believed to be triggered by changes in insolation due to cyclical changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. This is referred to as the Milankovitch theory or the astronomical climate theory. A brief review of our knowledge of the climate system, proxy records and observations of past climate change is presented in the report. The most extreme departures from modern environmental conditions in Sweden have occurred during the cold, glacial cycles with ice sheets covering the whole of Sweden. As part of SKB's palaeohydrogeological research programme a time-dependent, thermo-mechanically coupled model of ice sheet behaviour has been developed in order to simulate past fluctuations of the Scandinavian ice sheet and forecast its future. The ice sheet model can calculate the temperature field and isostatic response of the underlying bedrock, subglacial and proglacial permafrost and the subglacial melt rates. By connecting the glaciation model with hydrogeological and rock mechanical models, the response of the subsurface to climate change can be investigated. In this report the climate-driven environmental changes are represented as a series of successive

  18. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the long-term control of the Earth's climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Carver

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available A CO2-weathering model has been used to explore the possible evolution of the Earth's climate as the Sun steadily brightened throughout geologic time. The results of the model calculations can be described in terms of three, qualitatively different, "Megaclimates". Mega-climate 1 resulted from a period of rapid outgassing in the early Archean, with high, but declining, temperatures caused by the small weathering rates on a largely water-covered planet. Mega-climate 2 began about 3 Gyear ago as major continental land masses developed, increasing the weathering rate in the early Proterozoic and thereby depleting the atmospheric CO2 concentration. This process produced the first Precambrian glaciations about 2.3 Gyear ago. During Mega-climate 2, evolutionary biological processes increased the surface weatherability in incremental steps and plate tectonics modulated the CO2 outgassing rate with an estimated period of 150 Myear (approximately one-half the period for the formation and breakup of super continents. Throughout Mega-climate 2 the surface temperature was controlled by variations in the atmospheric CO2 level allowing transitions between glacial and non-glacial conditions. The results of the model for Mega-climate 2 are in agreement with the occurrence (and absence of glaciations in the geologic record. Extending the model to the future suggests that CO2 control of the Earth's temperature will no longer be able to compensate for a solar flux that continues to increase. The present level of atmospheric CO2 is so small that further reduction in CO2 cannot prevent the Earth from experiencing Mega-climate 3 with steadily increasing surface temperatures caused by the continued brightening of the Sun. During Mega-climate 3, the main danger to the biosphere would come not from an increasing temperature but from a decreasing (rather than an increasing CO2 level which could, in time, fall below 0.5 PAL, causing serious damage to the biosphere

  19. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the long-term control of the Earth's climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Carver

    Full Text Available A CO2-weathering model has been used to explore the possible evolution of the Earth's climate as the Sun steadily brightened throughout geologic time. The results of the model calculations can be described in terms of three, qualitatively different, "Megaclimates". Mega-climate 1 resulted from a period of rapid outgassing in the early Archean, with high, but declining, temperatures caused by the small weathering rates on a largely water-covered planet. Mega-climate 2 began about 3 Gyear ago as major continental land masses developed, increasing the weathering rate in the early Proterozoic and thereby depleting the atmospheric CO2 concentration. This process produced the first Precambrian glaciations about 2.3 Gyear ago. During Mega-climate 2, evolutionary biological processes increased the surface weatherability in incremental steps and plate tectonics modulated the CO2 outgassing rate with an estimated period of 150 Myear (approximately one-half the period for the formation and breakup of super continents. Throughout Mega-climate 2 the surface temperature was controlled by variations in the atmospheric CO2 level allowing transitions between glacial and non-glacial conditions. The results of the model for Mega-climate 2 are in agreement with the occurrence (and absence of glaciations in the geologic record. Extending the model to the future suggests that CO2 control of the Earth's temperature will no longer be able to compensate for a solar flux that continues to increase. The present level of atmospheric CO2 is so small that further reduction in CO2 cannot prevent the Earth from experiencing Mega-climate 3 with steadily increasing surface temperatures caused by the continued brightening of the Sun. During Mega-climate 3, the main danger to the biosphere would come not from an increasing temperature but from a decreasing (rather than an increasing CO2

  20. Climate change and the long-term viability of the World's busiest heavy haul ice road

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Swindles, Graeme; Patterson, Tim; Galloway, Jennifer; Macumber, Andrew; Falck, Hendrik; Crossley, Laura; Chen, Jie; Pisaric, Michael

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world's busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

  1. Is deciduousness a key to climate resilience among iconic California savanna oak species? Relating phenological habits to seasonal indicators of tree physiological and water stress across field, hyperspectral, drone (UAS)-based multispectral and thermal image data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayes, M. T.; Caylor, K. K.; Ehlmann, B. L.; Greenberger, R. N.; Estes, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    In California (CA) savannas, oak trees (genus Quercus) play keystone roles in water and nutrient cycling, support biodiversity and many land-use activities. Declines in oak basal area of up to 25% from the 1930s-2000s, which have occurred alongside climate trends such as increasing variability of rainfall and prevalence of hotter droughts, threaten the services and ecological functions these trees provide. It is particularly unclear how climate relates to productivity and stress across oak species. Past work has found that seedling recruitment has varied inversely with "deciduousness." That is, evergreen oaks (e.g. Quercus agrifola. Coast Live Oak) are reproducing more successfully than drought-deciduous (e.g. Quercus douglassi, Blue Oak), which in turn are more successful than fully deciduous species (e.g. Quercus lobata, Valley Oak). However, there is poor understanding of how these ecological trends by species, corresponding with phenological habit, relate to physiological and ecohydrological processes such as carbon assimilation, water or nutrient use efficiency in mature tree stands. This limits predictive capability for which species will be most resilient to harsher future growing conditions, and, how to monitor stress and productivity in long-lived mature oak communities across landscapes via tools including remotely sensed data. This project explores how ecophysiological variables (e.g. stomatal conductance) relate to phenological habits across three oak species (Coast Live, Blue and Valley) over a seasonal dry-down period in Santa Barbara County, CA. Our goal is to probe if deciduousness is a key to resilience in productivity and water stress across iconic oak species. We test relationships between leaf and canopy-level field data, and indicators from multiple new sources of remotely sensed data, including ground hyperspectral, drone (UAS)-based multi-spectral and thermal image data, as means of monitoring tree physiological and water stress from scales

  2. Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oene, H.; Berendse, F.; De Kovel, C.G.F. [Nature Consevation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, J.R.M.; Bakkenes, M.; Ihle, F. [National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1999-07-01

    The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C0{sub 2} levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs.

  3. Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.

    2014-05-01

    Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

  4. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  5. Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

    2015-06-01

    Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974-2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.

  6. Long-Term Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on Streamwater Salinity in New York State: INCA Simulations Offer Cautious Optimism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutchess, Kristina; Jin, Li; Ledesma, José L J; Crossman, Jill; Kelleher, Christa; Lautz, Laura; Lu, Zunli

    2018-02-06

    The long-term application of road salts has led to a rise in surface water chloride (Cl - ) concentrations. While models have been used to assess the potential future impacts of continued deicing practices, prior approaches have not incorporated changes in climate that are projected to impact hydrogeology in the 21st century. We use an INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model to simulate Cl - concentrations in the Tioughnioga River watershed. The model was run over a baseline period (1961-1990) and climate simulations from a range of GCMs run over three 30-year intervals (2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099). Model projections suggest that Cl - concentrations in the two river branches will continue to rise for several decades, before beginning to decline around 2040-2069, with all GCM scenarios indicating reductions in snowfall and associated salt applications over the 21st century. The delay in stream response is most likely attributed to climate change and continued contribution of Cl - from aquifers. By 2100, surface water Cl - concentrations will decrease to below 1960s values. Catchments dominated by urban lands will experience a decrease in average surface water Cl - , although moderate compared to more rural catchments.

  7. Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

  8. The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal; Watson, Elizabeth J.; Turner, T. Edward; Roland, Thomas P.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Kokfelt, Ulla; Schoning, Kristian; Pratte, Steve; Gallego-Sala, Angela; Charman, Dan J.; Sanderson, Nicole; Garneau, Michelle; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Woulds, Clare; Holden, Joseph; Parry, Lauren; Galloway, Jennifer M.

    2015-01-01

    Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms. PMID:26647837

  9. Social Memory of Short-term and Long-term Variability in the Sahelian Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roderick J. McIntosh

    2006-01-01

    The 170,000 km2 interior floodplain of the Middle Niger (Mali) is a tight mosaic of alluvial and desert microenvironments. The interannual to intermillennial climate change profiles of this fluvial anomaly thrust deep into the Sahel and southern Sahara are masterpieces of abrupt phase shifts and unpredictability. Response has been of two kinds. The Office du Niger was...

  10. The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

  11. The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koblinsky, C.J.; Gaspar, P.; Lagerloef, G.

    1992-03-01

    The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments

  12. Long-term vegetation changes in a temperate forest impacted by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauren E. Oakes; Paul E. Hennon; Kevin L. O' Hara; Rodolfo Dirzo

    2014-01-01

    Pervasive forest mortality is expected to increase in future decades as a result of increasing temperatures. Climate-induced forest dieback can have consequences on ecosystem services, potentially mediated by changes in forest structure and understory community composition that emerge in response to tree death. Although many dieback events around the world have been...

  13. Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, D.P. van

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As uncertainties

  14. Healthy Sleep Habits

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Sleep Apnea Testing CPAP Healthy Sleep Habits Healthy Sleep Habits Your behaviors during the day, and especially ... team at an AASM accredited sleep center . Quick Sleep Tips Follow these tips to establish healthy sleep ...

  15. Habitable Planets for Man

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dole, Stephen H

    2007-01-01

    ..., and discusses how to search for habitable planets. Interestingly for our time, he also gives an appraisal of the earth as a planet and describes how its habitability would be changed if some of its basic properties were altered...

  16. Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavas, Daniel R.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Gao, Xuejie

    2009-06-15

    Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work examines potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in northeastern China: canola, corn, potato, rice, and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends, the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions, defined as having a greater than 10% decrease and increase in productivity, respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenario conditions are used as input in the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30ºN, 108ºE] to [42ºN, 123ºE]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5% for rice, 8.3% for canola, 18.6% for corn, 22.9% for potato, and 24.9% for winter wheat, although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However, absent the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect, potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5-12%. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties, except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall, in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain, rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast, potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest, and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a clear beneficiary from among those simulated in this study.

  17. Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flesch, Aaron D; Rosen, Philip C; Holm, Peter

    2017-12-01

    Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%-285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1-1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2-4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (T max ) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with T max were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change

  18. Expanding research capabilities with sea ice climate records for analysis of long-term climate change and short-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D. J.; Meier, W. N.

    2008-12-01

    Recent sea ice analysis is leading to predictions of a sea ice-free summertime in the Arctic within 20 years, or even sooner. Sea ice topics, such as concentration, extent, motion, and age, are predominately studied using satellite data. At the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), passive microwave sea ice data sets provide timely assessments of seasonal-scale variability as well as consistent long-term climate data records. Such data sets are crucial to understanding changes and assessing their impacts. Noticeable impacts of changing sea ice conditions on native cultures and wildlife in the Arctic region are now being documented. With continued deterioration in Arctic sea ice, global economic impacts will be seen as new shipping routes open. NSIDC is at the forefront of making climate data records available to address the changes in sea ice and its global impacts. By focusing on integrated data sets, NSIDC leads the way by broadening the studies of sea ice beyond the traditional cryospheric community.

  19. Ghrelin and PYY levels in adolescents with severe obesity: effects of weight loss induced by long-term exercise training and modified food habits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueugnon, Carine; Mougin, Fabienne; Nguyen, Nhu Uyen; Bouhaddi, Malika; Nicolet-Guénat, Marie; Dumoulin, Gilles

    2012-05-01

    This study investigated (a) changes in ghrelin and peptide YY (PYY) concentrations during a weight reduction programme and (b) baseline ghrelin and PYY levels as predictors of weight loss in 32 severely obese adolescents (BMI z score = 4.1). Subjects spent an academic year in an institution for childhood obesity. Fasting ghrelin and PYY, leptin, insulin levels and insulin resistance were measured at baseline (month 0) and during the programme (months 3, 6, 9). In addition, 15 normal-weight teenagers served as reference for the baseline assessments. At baseline, obese teenagers had lower ghrelin and PYY concentrations than normal-weight adolescents (P modification, there was a significant decrease in body weight among obese teenagers, associated with an increase in ghrelin (apparent from month 6; P modification. However, higher baseline PYY tended to correlate with greater anthropometrical changes (P < 0.1). In adolescents with severe obesity, a long-term combination of supervised aerobic exercises and a balanced diet led to weight reduction and increased ghrelin concentrations, without any change in PYY concentrations. Moreover, baseline PYY concentrations might be considered as predictors of weight loss.

  20. Long-term data from a small mammal community reveal loss of diversity and potential effects of local climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Simone; Sanchez-Suarez, Cristina; Rouco, Carlos; Palomo, L Javier; Fernández, M Carmen; Kufner, Maura B; Moreno, Sacramento

    2017-10-01

    Climate change affects distribution and persistence of species. However, forecasting species' responses to these changes requires long-term data series that are often lacking in ecological studies. We used 15 years of small mammal trapping data collected between 1978 and 2015 in 3 areas at Doñana National Park (southwest Spain) to (i) describe changes in species composition and (ii) test the association between local climate conditions and size of small mammal populations. Overall, 5 species were captured: wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus , algerian mouse Mus spretus , greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula , garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus , and black rat Rattus rattus . The temporal pattern in the proportion of captures of each species suggests that the small mammal diversity declined with time. Although the larger species (e.g., E. quercinus ), better adapted to colder climate, have disappeared from our trapping records, M. spretus , a small species inhabiting southwest Europe and the Mediterranean coast of Africa, currently is almost the only trapped species. We used 2-level hierarchical models to separate changes in abundance from changes in probability of capture using records of A. sylvaticus in all 3 areas and of M. spretus in 1. We found that heavy rainfall and low temperatures were positively related to abundance of A. sylvaticus , and that the number of extremely hot days was negatively related to abundance of M. spretus . Despite other mechanisms are likely to be involved, our findings support the importance of climate for the distribution and persistence of these species and raise conservation concerns about potential cascading effects in the Doñana ecosystem.

  1. Functional adjustments of xylem anatomy to climatic variability: insights from long-term Ilex aquifolium tree-ring series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rita, Angelo; Cherubini, Paolo; Leonardi, Stefano; Todaro, Luigi; Borghetti, Marco

    2015-08-01

    The present study assessed the effects of climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits, including ring width, vessel size, vessel frequency and derived variables, i.e., potential hydraulic conductivity and xylem vulnerability to cavitation in Ilex aquifolium L. trees using long-term tree-ring time series obtained at two climatically contrasting sites, one mesic site in Switzerland (CH) and one drought-prone site in Italy (ITA). Relationships were explored by examining different xylem traits, and point pattern analysis was applied to investigate vessel clustering. We also used generalized additive models and bootstrap correlation functions to describe temperature and precipitation effects. Results indicated modified radial growth and xylem anatomy in trees over the last century; in particular, vessel frequency increased markedly at both sites in recent years, and all xylem traits examined, with the exception of xylem cavitation vulnerability, were higher at the CH mesic compared with the ITA drought site. A significant vessel clustering was observed at the ITA site, which could contribute to an enhanced tolerance to drought-induced embolism. Flat and negative relationships between vessel size and ring width were observed, suggesting carbon was not allocated to radial growth under conditions which favored stem water conduction. Finally, in most cases results indicated that climatic conditions influenced functional anatomical traits more substantially than tree radial growth, suggesting a crucial role of functional xylem anatomy in plant acclimation to future climatic conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Rearing a reading habit

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    2009-01-01

    Discusses the importance and ways of inculcating reading habit in children at the right age, describes the five reading phases in children along with interest and the material to satiate the need, explains how four deterministic factors affect the reading habit of children, enlists motivations that are behind the reading process with tips to improve reading habit of children.

  3. Climate and Long-Term Structures: The Wine-Harvesting Variable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Roy Ladurie, Emmanuel

    2006-01-01

    Based on the history of wine harvests, it is possible to develop a more general history of climate, particularly in Europe. This history-the alternating cycle of warm and cool seasons-can also be related to the economic, and thus political, history of our countries, from the 14. century to the global warming of the 20. century. The role of the meteorologist in understanding these structures is therefore crucial

  4. Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Kivinen

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

  5. Long-term dataset on aquatic responses to concurrent climate change and recovery from acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leach, Taylor H.; Winslow, Luke A.; Acker, Frank W.; Bloomfield, Jay A.; Boylen, Charles W.; Bukaveckas, Paul A.; Charles, Donald F.; Daniels, Robert A.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Eichler, Lawrence W.; Farrell, Jeremy L.; Funk, Clara S.; Goodrich, Christine A.; Michelena, Toby M.; Nierzwicki-Bauer, Sandra A.; Roy, Karen M.; Shaw, William H.; Sutherland, James W.; Swinton, Mark W.; Winkler, David A.; Rose, Kevin C.

    2018-04-01

    Concurrent regional and global environmental changes are affecting freshwater ecosystems. Decadal-scale data on lake ecosystems that can describe processes affected by these changes are important as multiple stressors often interact to alter the trajectory of key ecological phenomena in complex ways. Due to the practical challenges associated with long-term data collections, the majority of existing long-term data sets focus on only a small number of lakes or few response variables. Here we present physical, chemical, and biological data from 28 lakes in the Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. These data span the period from 1994-2012 and harmonize multiple open and as-yet unpublished data sources. The dataset creation is reproducible and transparent; R code and all original files used to create the dataset are provided in an appendix. This dataset will be useful for examining ecological change in lakes undergoing multiple stressors.

  6. Nuclear power: renaissance or relapse? Global climate change and long-term Three Mile Island activists' narratives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, Marci R; Angelique, Holly

    2010-06-01

    Community narratives are increasingly important as people move towards an ecologically sustainable society. Global climate change is a multi-faceted problem with multiple stakeholders. The voices of affected communities must be heard as we make decisions of global significance. We document the narratives of long-term anti-nuclear activists near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant who speak out in the dawn of a nuclear renaissance/relapse. While nuclear power is marketed as a "green" solution to global warming, their narratives reveal three areas for consideration; (1) significant problems with nuclear technology, (2) lessons "not" learned from the TMI disaster, and (3) hopes for a sustainable future. Nuclear waste, untrustworthy officials and economic issues were among the problems cited. Deceptive shaping of public opinion, nuclear illiteracy, and an aging anti-nuclear movement were reasons cited for the lessons not learned. However, many remain optimistic and envision increased participation to create an ecologically-balanced world.

  7. Climate change and population dynamics at the tree line: the importance of long-term studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anfodillo T

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature-limited ecosystems are believed to be extremely sensitive to global warming and the upward treeline migration is one of the most relevant phenomenon. Long term monitoring of demographic trends appears essential in order to understand possible effects of higher temperatures on cold ecosystems. Long-term monitoring of natality and mortality of a Pinus sylvestris population in the Swedish Scandes from 1973 to 2005 (Kullman 2007 showed that number of trees increased in the study plots due to higher natality rate, especially in the last decade. This reverses a natural trend of treeline decline and recession occurred in the past.

  8. Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

    2018-02-01

    In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

  9. Long-term flow forecasts based on climate and hydrologic modeling: Uruguay River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci, Carlos Eduardo Morelli; Clarke, Robin Thomas; Collischonn, Walter; da Silva Dias, Pedro Leite; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio

    2003-07-01

    This paper describes a procedure for predicting seasonal flow in the Rio Uruguay drainage basin (area 75,000 km2, lying in Brazilian territory), using sequences of future daily rainfall given by the global climate model (GCM) of the Brazilian agency for climate prediction (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Clima, or CPTEC). Sequences of future daily rainfall given by this model were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model appropriate for large drainage basins. Forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay were made for the period 1995-2001 of the full record, which began in 1940. Analysis showed that GCM forecasts underestimated rainfall over almost all the basin, particularly in winter, although interannual variability in regional rainfall was reproduced relatively well. A statistical procedure was used to correct for the underestimation of rainfall. When the corrected rainfall sequences were transformed to flow by the hydrologic model, forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay basin were better than forecasts based on historic mean or median flows by 37% for monthly flows and by 54% for 3-monthly flows.

  10. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

    2018-05-01

    The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).

  11. Climatic Characteristics of the Subtropical Mountainous Cloud Forest at the Yuanyang Lake Long-Term Ecological Research Site, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I-Ling Lai

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To better understand the climatic characteristics in a subtropical mountainous cloud forest at the Yuanyang Lake long-term ecological research site, weather data collected from January 1994 to December 2004 were analyzed in the present study. The obvious seasonal changes in climatic factors were observed at this site. The annual mean air temperature was 12.7°C. The lowest temperature was recorded in February (monthly mean 5.9°C, and the highest one was taken in July (monthly mean 18.1°C. Winter featured light rain with a prolonged occurrence of fog, resulting in a large reduction of radiation. In summer, fog occurred once in the early morning and the other time from afternoon to evening. The latter one was associated with the wind direction changes and usually accompanied with short moderate to heavy convective rain. Consequently the photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD was high in the morning but reduced drastically in the afternoon. Typhoons occurred in the summer had contributed to 37% of the annual rainfall, usually resulting in torrential rain events and sharp increases in the water level of this lake. As a matter of fact, perhumid environment of this site was attributed to abundant rainfall (mean annual precipitation 3396 mm and high frequency (up to 40% of foggy time. Such conditions would reduce the intensity of solar radiation and PPFD. The average annual solar radiation at the site was 2475 MJ m-2, and annual PPFD was 5713 mol m-2. The average degree of reduction of PPFD under foggy condition was up to 88%. Such climatic characteristics are suggested to constrain the growth of plants and play an important role in competition among plant species in this cloud forest. It is considered that the distinct seasonal fluctuation in environmental factors, perhumid and dim light conditions are the most distinguished characteristics of this subtropical mountainous cloud forest ecosystem.

  12. Long-term ice sheet-climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vizcaino, Miren [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); University of California, Department of Geography, Berkeley, CA (United States); Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Maier-Reimer, Ernst [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Groeger, Matthias [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany); Schurgers, Guy [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund (Sweden); Winguth, Arne M.E. [Center for Climatic Research, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison (United States)

    2008-11-15

    Several multi-century and multi-millennia simulations have been performed with a complex Earth System Model (ESM) for different anthropogenic climate change scenarios in order to study the long-term evolution of sea level and the impact of ice sheet changes on the climate system. The core of the ESM is a coupled coarse-resolution Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). Ocean biogeochemistry, land vegetation and ice sheets are included as components of the ESM. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) decays in all simulations, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes negatively to sea level rise, due to enhanced storage of water caused by larger snowfall rates. Freshwater flux increases from Greenland are one order of magnitude smaller than total freshwater flux increases into the North Atlantic basin (the sum of the contribution from changes in precipitation, evaporation, run-off and Greenland meltwater) and do not play an important role in changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC). The regional climate change associated with weakening/collapse of the NAMOC drastically reduces the decay rate of the GrIS. The dynamical changes due to GrIS topography modification driven by mass balance changes act first as a negative feedback for the decay of the ice sheet, but accelerate the decay at a later stage. The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet. (orig.)

  13. An assessment of long-term overtopping risk and optimal termination time of dam under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Bau-Shian; You, Gene Jiing-Yun

    2013-05-30

    Reservoir management faces a wide range of new challenges resulting from the impact of climate change. One set of challenges arises from the non-stationary nature of hydrological conditions. Another crucial issue is watershed sedimentation, which can significantly influence the sustainability and safety of reservoirs. To address these concerns, this study developed a framework for the management of reservoir risk. An analytical conceptual model coupling physical governing relationships and economic tools was proposed, which was then applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. We adopted a statistical representation of future hydrologic conditions with the assumption of time-variant moments and focused on evaluating the impact of an increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events caused by climate change and used a stochastic approach to quantify the risk factors. Our results confirm that this approach can be used to identify reservoir-related risks and generate appropriate options for strategy and policy. We determined that the major source of risk is the hydrological conditions, especially the extreme events. More severe intra-annual climatic change is much more dominant in the risk compared to inter-year trends. The influence of reservoir characteristics on risk is associated mainly with the availability of flood control capacity, but limited due to the limitation of its volume and potential to regulate the flow. Engineering may provide an option for mitigating the risk, but integrated, watershed-level approaches, such as providing systematic detention or land use management, are better suited to reducing the storm peak from a long-term perspective. With a critical increase in the risk of overtopping, a high probability of dam failure and corresponding losses may precipitate the need to retire or remove the facility. However, because the benefits and costs are both huge, the decision may be biased by a conservative attitude. The outcome of small

  14. Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

    2014-05-01

    Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

  15. HABEBEE: habitability of eyeball-exo-Earths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angerhausen, Daniel; Sapers, Haley; Citron, Robert; Bergantini, Alexandre; Lutz, Stefanie; Queiroz, Luciano Lopes; da Rosa Alexandre, Marcelo; Araujo, Ana Carolina Vieira

    2013-03-01

    Extrasolar Earth and super-Earth planets orbiting within the habitable zone of M dwarf host stars may play a significant role in the discovery of habitable environments beyond Earth. Spectroscopic characterization of these exoplanets with respect to habitability requires the determination of habitability parameters with respect to remote sensing. The habitable zone of dwarf stars is located in close proximity to the host star, such that exoplanets orbiting within this zone will likely be tidally locked. On terrestrial planets with an icy shell, this may produce a liquid water ocean at the substellar point, one particular "Eyeball Earth" state. In this research proposal, HABEBEE: exploring the HABitability of Eyeball-Exo-Earths, we define the parameters necessary to achieve a stable icy Eyeball Earth capable of supporting life. Astronomical and geochemical research will define parameters needed to simulate potentially habitable environments on an icy Eyeball Earth planet. Biological requirements will be based on detailed studies of microbial communities within Earth analog environments. Using the interdisciplinary results of both the physical and biological teams, we will set up a simulation chamber to expose a cold- and UV-tolerant microbial community to the theoretically derived Eyeball Earth climate states, simulating the composition, atmosphere, physical parameters, and stellar irradiation. Combining the results of both studies will enable us to derive observable parameters as well as target decision guidance and feasibility analysis for upcoming astronomical platforms.

  16. Setting the Stage for Habitable Planets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo Gonzalez

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Our understanding of the processes that are relevant to the formation and maintenance of habitable planetary systems is advancing at a rapid pace, both from observation and theory. The present review focuses on recent research that bears on this topic and includes discussions of processes occurring in astrophysical, geophysical and climatic contexts, as well as the temporal evolution of planetary habitability. Special attention is given to recent observations of exoplanets and their host stars and the theories proposed to explain the observed trends. Recent theories about the early evolution of the Solar System and how they relate to its habitability are also summarized. Unresolved issues requiring additional research are pointed out, and a framework is provided for estimating the number of habitable planets in the Universe.

  17. Setting the Stage for Habitable Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Guillermo

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the processes that are relevant to the formation and maintenance of habitable planetary systems is advancing at a rapid pace, both from observation and theory. The present review focuses on recent research that bears on this topic and includes discussions of processes occurring in astrophysical, geophysical and climatic contexts, as well as the temporal evolution of planetary habitability. Special attention is given to recent observations of exoplanets and their host stars and the theories proposed to explain the observed trends. Recent theories about the early evolution of the Solar System and how they relate to its habitability are also summarized. Unresolved issues requiring additional research are pointed out, and a framework is provided for estimating the number of habitable planets in the Universe. PMID:25370028

  18. The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal

    2015-01-01

    Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon...... stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological...... approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed...

  19. Long-term multifactorial climate change impacts on mesofaunal biomass and nitrogen content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Mette Vestergård; Dyrnum, Kristine; Michelsen, Anders

    2015-01-01

    increased at elevated CO2, or tended do so. In contrast, enchytraeid N content decreased at elevated CO2. Soil microbial biomass N pool and litter C:N ratio also increased with elevated CO2, which suggests that mite biomasses are more coupled to microbial biomass, whereas enchytraeid biomass to a larger...... extent is governed by litter nitrogen concentration, i.e. litter quality. Structural equation modelling confirmed the positive coupling between soil microbial N content and oribatid biomass and further between oribatid and mesostigmatic biomass. The SEM also revealed a negative relationship between...... microbial N content and enchytraeid biomass. The biomass of all mesofaunal groups was reduced by spring drought, especially when combined with warming. Enchytraeid and especially collembolan biomass suffered greater drought declines than mite biomasses. We conclude that under long-term elevated CO2 exposure...

  20. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Riahi, Keywan; Kriegler, Elmar; Johnson, Nils; Bertram, Christoph; den Elzen, Michel; Eom, Jiyong; Schaeffer, Michiel; Edmonds, Jae; Isaac, Morna; Krey, Volker; Longden, Thomas; Luderer, Gunnar; Méjean, Aurélie; McCollum, David L.; Mima, Silvana; Turton, Hal; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wada, Kenichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Capros, Pantelis; Criqui, Patrick; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kainuma, Mikiko; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following

  1. Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vihervaara, P.; D'Amato, D.; Forsius, M.; Angelstam, P.; Baessler, C.; Balvanera, P.; Boldgiv, B.; Bourgeron, P.; Dick, J.; Kanka, R.; Klotz, S.; Maass, M.; Melecis, V.; Petřík, Petr; Shibata, H.; Tang, J.; Thompson, J.; Zacharias, S.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2013), s. 53-66 ISSN 1877-3435 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7AMB12SK156 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * long-term ecological monitoring * prmanen research plot Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.758, year: 2013

  2. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  3. Age, origin and evolution of Antarctic debris-covered glaciers: Implications for landscape evolution and long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Sean Leland

    Antarctic debris-covered glaciers are potential archives of long-term climate change. However, the geomorphic response of these systems to climate forcing is not well understood. To address this concern, I conducted a series of field-based and numerical modeling studies in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica (MDV), with a focus on Mullins and Friedman glaciers. I used data and results from geophysical surveys, ice-core collection and analysis, geomorphic mapping, micro-meteorological stations, and numerical-process models to (1) determine the precise origin and distribution of englacial and supraglacial debris within these buried-ice systems, (2) quantify the fundamental processes and feedbacks that govern interactions among englacial and supraglacial debris, (3) establish a process-based model to quantify the inventory of cosmogenic nuclides within englacial and supraglacial debris, and (4) isolate the governing relationships between the evolution of englacial /supraglacial debris and regional climate forcing. Results from 93 field excavations, 21 ice cores, and 24 km of ground-penetrating radar data show that Mullins and Friedman glaciers contain vast areas of clean glacier ice interspersed with inclined layers of concentrated debris. The similarity in the pattern of englacial debris bands across both glaciers, along with model results that call for negligible basal entrainment, is best explained by episodic environmental change at valley headwalls. To constrain better the timing of debris-band formation, I developed a modeling framework that tracks the accumulation of cosmogenic 3He in englacial and supraglacial debris. Results imply that ice within Mullins Glacier increases in age non-linearly from 12 ka to ˜220 ka in areas of active flow (up to >> 1.6 Ma in areas of slow-moving-to-stagnant ice) and that englacial debris bands originate with a periodicity of ˜41 ka. Modeling studies suggest that debris bands originate in synchronicity with changes in

  4. Ramifications of a potential gap in passive microwave data for the long-term sea ice climate record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, W.; Stewart, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    will also discuss potential contingency plans, such as using operational sea ice charts, to fill any gaps. This would allow the record to continue, but the consistency of the time series will be degraded because the ice charts use human analysis and differing sources, amounts and quality of input data, which makes them sub-optimal for long-term climate records.

  5. Habitability of planets around red dwarf stars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heath, M J; Doyle, L R; Joshi, M M; Haberle, R M

    1999-08-01

    Recent models indicate that relatively moderate climates could exist on Earth-sized planets in synchronous rotation around red dwarf stars. Investigation of the global water cycle, availability of photosynthetically active radiation in red dwarf sunlight, and the biological implications of stellar flares, which can be frequent for red dwarfs, suggests that higher plant habitability of red dwarf planets may be possible.

  6. Habitability: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockell, C S; Bush, T; Bryce, C; Direito, S; Fox-Powell, M; Harrison, J P; Lammer, H; Landenmark, H; Martin-Torres, J; Nicholson, N; Noack, L; O'Malley-James, J; Payler, S J; Rushby, A; Samuels, T; Schwendner, P; Wadsworth, J; Zorzano, M P

    2016-01-01

    Habitability is a widely used word in the geoscience, planetary science, and astrobiology literature, but what does it mean? In this review on habitability, we define it as the ability of an environment to support the activity of at least one known organism. We adopt a binary definition of "habitability" and a "habitable environment." An environment either can or cannot sustain a given organism. However, environments such as entire planets might be capable of supporting more or less species diversity or biomass compared with that of Earth. A clarity in understanding habitability can be obtained by defining instantaneous habitability as the conditions at any given time in a given environment required to sustain the activity of at least one known organism, and continuous planetary habitability as the capacity of a planetary body to sustain habitable conditions on some areas of its surface or within its interior over geological timescales. We also distinguish between surface liquid water worlds (such as Earth) that can sustain liquid water on their surfaces and interior liquid water worlds, such as icy moons and terrestrial-type rocky planets with liquid water only in their interiors. This distinction is important since, while the former can potentially sustain habitable conditions for oxygenic photosynthesis that leads to the rise of atmospheric oxygen and potentially complex multicellularity and intelligence over geological timescales, the latter are unlikely to. Habitable environments do not need to contain life. Although the decoupling of habitability and the presence of life may be rare on Earth, it may be important for understanding the habitability of other planetary bodies.

  7. Microbial volatile organic compounds in moldy interiors: a long-term climate chamber study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuchardt, Sven; Strube, Andrea

    2013-06-01

    The present study simulated large-scale indoor mold damage in order to test the efficiency of air sampling for the detection of microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOCs). To do this, a wallpaper damaged by condensation was stored in a climate chamber (representing a hypothetical test room of 40 m(3) volume) and was inoculated with 14 typical indoor fungal strains. The chamber ventilation conditions were adjusted to common values found in moldy homes, and the mold growth was allowed to continue to higher than average values. The MVOC content of the chamber air was analyzed daily for a period of 105 days using coupled gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC-MS). This procedure guarantees MVOC profiling without external factors such as outdoor air, building materials, furniture, and occupants. However, only nine MVOCs could be detected during the sampling period, which indicates that the very low concentrated MVOCs are hardly accessible, even under these favorable conditions. Furthermore, most of the MVOCs that were detected cannot be considered as reliable indicators of mold growth in indoor environments. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Climate-vegetation-fire interactions and their impact on long-term carbon dynamics in a boreal peatland landscape in northern Manitoba, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camill, Philip; Barry, Ann; Williams, Evie; Andreassi, Christian; Limmer, Jacob; Solick, Donald

    2009-12-01

    Climate warming may increase the size and frequency of fires in the boreal biome, possibly causing greater carbon release that amplifies warming. However, in peatlands, vegetation change may also control long-term fire and carbon accumulation, confounding simple relationships between climate, fire, and carbon accumulation. Using 17 peat cores dating to 8000 cal years B.P. from northern Manitoba, Canada, we addressed the following questions: (1) Do past climate changes correlate with shifts in peatland vegetation? (2) What is the relationship between peatland vegetation and fire severity? (3) What is the mean return interval for boreal peat fires, and how does it change across fires of different severities? (4) How does fire severity affect carbon accumulation rates? (5) Do fire and long-term carbon accumulation change directly in response to climate or indirectly though climate-driven changes in vegetation? We measured carbon accumulation rates, fire severity, and return intervals using macroscopic charcoal and changes in vegetation using macrofossils. Climate and vegetation changes covaried, with shifts from wetter fen to drier, forested bog communities during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). Fires became more severe following the shift to forested bogs, with fire severity peaking after 4000 cal years B.P. rather than during the HTM. Rising fire severity, in turn, was correlated with a significant decrease in carbon accumulation from ˜6000 to 2000 cal years B.P. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age affected vegetation composition and permafrost, further impacting fire and carbon accumulation. Our results indicate that long-term changes in fire and carbon dynamics are mediated by climate-driven changes in vegetation.

  9. Physiotherapy and physical functioning post-stroke: exercise habits and functioning 4 years later? Long-term follow-up after a 1-year long-term intervention period: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhammer, Birgitta; Lindmark, Birgitta; Stanghelle, Johan K

    2014-01-01

    Physical activity is mandatory if patients are to remain healthy and independent after stroke. Maintenance of motor function, tone, grip strength, balance, mobility, gait, independence in personal and instrumental activities of daily living, health-related quality-of-life and an active lifestyle 4 years post-stroke. A prospective randomized controlled trial. Four years post-stroke, 37 of the 75 participating persons were eligible for follow-up; 19 (54.3%) from the intensive exercise group and 18 (45%) from the regular exercise group. Both groups were performing equally well with no significant differences in total scores on the BI (p = 0.3), MAS (p = 0.4), BBS (p = 0.1), TUG (p = 0.08), 6MWT (p = 0.1), bilateral grip strength (affected hand, p = 0.8; non-affected hand, p = 0.9) nor in the items of NHP (p > 0.005). Independence in performing the IADL was 40%, while 60% had help from relatives or community-based services. This longitudinal study shows that persons with stroke in two groups with different exercise regimes during the first year after stroke did not differ in long-term outcomes. Both groups maintained function and had a relatively active life style 4 years after the acute incident. The results underline the importance of follow-up testing and encouragement to exercise, to motivate and sustain physical activity patterns, to maintain physical function, not only in the acute but also in the chronic phase of stroke.

  10. Long-term climate change: the evolution of shield surface boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peltier, W.R.

    2007-01-01

    The Earths surface during the Pleistocene epoch has been repeatedly subjected to glacial cycles that have markedly influenced both the landscape and surface boundary conditions that, in part, governed past evolution of deep-seated Shield groundwater flow domains. As part of the Deep Geologic Repository Technology Programme simulations of the last Laurentide glacial episode have been undertaken with the University of Toronto Glacial System Model (GSM). The purpose of these simulations is to yield constrained predictions of the magnitude and time rate of change of peri-glacial, glacial and boreal regimes that have perturbed Shield flow domains in the geologic past. A detailed model of long timescale climate change has been developed, which is able to make useful predictions of the process of continental glaciation and deglaciation that has occurred in the past due to the small changes in the effective intensity of the Sun at the location of the Earth caused by gravitational many body effects in Solar System evolution. Based upon the success of this model we are able to assert that we have demonstrated a basic understanding of why this process has continually recurred in the past on a timescale of approximately 100 000 years. Continuing work with the Glacial Systems Model and efforts to provide explicit linkage to numerical analyses of sub-surface hydrology are beginning to yield a new understanding of groundwater flow system evolution and response to glacial perturbations. In so doing this understanding is not only providing a reasoned basis on which to examine issues of geosphere stability as relevant to the safety of a hypothetical repository for used nuclear fuel in Shield terrain, but is also offering an improved basis for the integrated interpretation of multi-disciplinary geo-scientific data necessary for development of a descriptive geosphere model that is seen as fundamental to the repository Safety Case. (author)

  11. Carbonate-silicate cycle models of the long-term carbon cycle, carbonate accumulation in the oceans, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldeira, K.G.

    1991-01-01

    Several models of the long-term carbon cycle, incorporating models of the carbonate-silicate cycle, were developed and utilized to investigate issues relating to global climate and the causes and consequences of changes in calcium carbonate accumulation in the oceans. Model results indicate that the marked mid-Cretaceous (120 Ma) global warming could be explained by increased rates of release of carbon dioxide from subduction-zone metamorphism and mid-ocean-ridges, in conjunction with paleogeographic factors. Since the mid-Cretaceous, the primary setting for calcium carbonate accumulation in the oceans has shifted from shallow-water to deep-water environments. Model results suggest that this shift could have major consequences for the carbonate-silicate cycle and climate, and lead to significant increases in the flux of metamorphic carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Increases in pelagic carbonate productivity, and decreases in tropical shallow-water area available for neritic carbonate accumulation, have both been proposed as the primary cause of this shift. Two lines of evidence developed here (one involving a statistical analysis of Tertiary carbonate-accumulation and oxygen-isotope data, and another based on modeling the carbonate-silicate cycle and ocean chemistry) suggest that a decrease in tropical shallow-water area was more important than increased pelagic productivity in explaining this shift. Model investigations of changes in ocean chemistry at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary (66 Ma) indicate that variations in deep-water carbonate productivity may affect shallow-water carbonate accumulation rates through a mechanism involving surface-water carbonate-ion concentration. In the aftermath of the K/T boundary event, deep-water carbonate production and accumulation were significantly reduced as a result of the extinction of calcareous plankton

  12. Near-term technology policies for long-term climate targets--economy wide versus technology specific approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanden, B.A.; Azar, Christian

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to offer suggestions when it comes to near-term technology policies for long-term climate targets based on some insights into the nature of technical change. We make a distinction between economy wide and technology specific policy instruments and put forward two key hypotheses: (i) Near-term carbon targets such as the Kyoto protocol can be met by economy wide price instruments (carbon taxes, or a cap-and-trade system) changing the technologies we pick from the shelf (higher energy efficiency in cars, buildings and industry, wind, biomass for heat and electricity, natural gas instead of coal, solar thermal, etc.). (ii) Technology specific policies are needed to bring new technologies to the shelf. Without these new technologies, stricter emission reduction targets may be considered impossible to meet by the government, industry and the general public, and therefore not adopted. The policies required to bring these more advanced technologies to the shelf are more complex and include increased public research and development, demonstration, niche market creation, support for networks within the new industries, standard settings and infrastructure policies (e.g., when it comes to hydrogen distribution). There is a risk that the society in its quest for cost-efficiency in meeting near-term emissions targets, becomes blindfolded when it comes to the more difficult, but equally important issue of bringing more advanced technologies to the shelf. The paper presents mechanisms that cause technology look in, how these very mechanisms can be used to get out of the current 'carbon lock-in' and the risk with premature lock-ins into new technologies that do not deliver what they currently promise. We then review certain climate policy proposals with regards to their expected technology impact, and finally we present a let-a-hundred-flowers-bloom strategy for the next couple of decades

  13. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  14. On the Habitability of Aquaplanets

    OpenAIRE

    Rolando Cardenas; Noel Perez; Jesus Martinez-Frias; Osmel Martin

    2014-01-01

    An Aquatic Habitability Index is proposed, based on Quantitative Habitability Theory, and considering a very general model for life. It is a primary habitability index, measuring habitability for phytoplankton in the first place. The index is applied to some case studies, such as the habitability changes in Earth due to environmental perturbations caused by asteroid impacts.

  15. On the Habitability of Aquaplanets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolando Cardenas

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available An Aquatic Habitability Index is proposed, based on Quantitative Habitability Theory, and considering a very general model for life. It is a primary habitability index, measuring habitability for phytoplankton in the first place. The index is applied to some case studies, such as the habitability changes in Earth due to environmental perturbations caused by asteroid impacts.

  16. Habitability from Tidally Induced Tectonics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valencia, Diana; Tan, Vivian Yun Yan; Zajac, Zachary

    2018-04-01

    The stability of Earth’s climate on geological timescales is enabled by the carbon–silicate cycle that acts as a negative feedback mechanism stabilizing surface temperatures via the intake and outgassing of atmospheric carbon. On Earth, this thermostat is enabled by plate tectonics that sequesters outgassed CO2 back into the mantle via weathering and subduction at convergent margins. Here we propose a separate tectonic mechanism—vertical recycling—that can serve as the vehicle for CO2 outgassing and sequestration over long timescales. The mechanism requires continuous tidal heating, which makes it particularly relevant to planets in the habitable zone of M stars. Dynamical models of this vertical recycling scenario and stability analysis show that temperate climates stable over timescales of billions of years are realized for a variety of initial conditions, even as the M star dims over time. The magnitude of equilibrium surface temperatures depends on the interplay of sea weathering and outgassing, which in turn depends on planetary carbon content, so that planets with lower carbon budgets are favored for temperate conditions. The habitability of planets such as found in the Trappist-1 system may be rooted in tidally driven tectonics.

  17. Your Child's Habits

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... older. For those who don't, simple behavior modification can help them break the habit. However, for those who start hair pulling as ... in your mirror. Do you bite your nails? Studies suggest that nail biting may ... kids engage in habits to attract attention or to manipulate their parents. ...

  18. Car-use habits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Berit Thorup; Thøgersen, John

    2008-01-01

    It is often claimed that many drivers use their private car rather habitually. The claim gains credibility from the fact that travelling to many everyday destinations fulfils all the prerequisites for habit formation: it is recurring, performed under stable circumstances and produces rewarding...... consequences. Since the decision is made quite automatically and only one choice alternative is considered (the habitually chosen one), behaviour guided by habit is difficult to change. The implications of car use habits for converting drivers to commuters using public transportation is analysed based...... to do so, car use habit, and the interaction between the two, confirms the theory-derived hypothesis that car use habits act as an obstacle to the transformation of intentions to commute by public transportation into action....

  19. Microbial Habitability and Pleistocene Aridification of the Asian Interior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiuyi; Lowenstein, Tim K; Fang, Xiaomin

    2016-06-01

    Fluid inclusions trapped in ancient halite can contain a community of halophilic prokaryotes and eukaryotes that inhabited the surface brines from which the halite formed. Long-term survival of bacteria and archaea and preservation of DNA have been reported from halite, but little is known about the distribution of microbes in buried evaporites. Here we report the discovery of prokaryotes and single-celled algae in fluid inclusions in Pleistocene halite, up to 2.26 Ma in age, from the Qaidam Basin, China. We show that water activity (aw), a measure of water availability and an environmental control on biological habitability in surface brines, is also related to microbe entrapment in fluid inclusions. The aw of Qaidam Basin brines progressively decreased over the last ∼1 million years, driven by aridification of the Asian interior, which led to decreased precipitation and water inflow and heightened evaporation rates. These changes in water balance produced highly concentrated brines, which reduced the habitability of surface lakes and decreased the number of microbes trapped in halite. By 0.13 Ma, the aw of surface brines approached the limits tolerated by halophilic prokaryotes and algae. These results show the response of microbial ecosystems to climate change in an extreme environment, which will guide future studies exploring deep life on Earth and elsewhere in the Solar System. Halite fluid inclusions-Ancient microbes-Water activity-Qaidam Basin-Pleistocene aridification. Astrobiology 16, 379-388.

  20. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect

  1. Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea in relation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walraven, Lodewijk; Dapper, Rob; Nauw, Janine J.; Tulp, Ingrid; Witte, Johannes IJ.; van der Veer, Henk W.

    2017-09-01

    Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea were studied using a 53 year (1960-2013) high resolution time series of daily kom-fyke catches in spring and autumn. Trends in first appearance, last occurrence and peak abundance were analysed for the most common species in relation to mode of life (pelagic, demersal, benthopelagic) and biogeographic guild (northern or southern distribution). Climate change in the western Wadden Sea involved an increase in water temperature from 1980 onwards. The main pattern in first day of occurrence, peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was similar: a positive trend over time and a correlation with spring and summer water temperature. This is counterintuitive; with increasing temperature, an advanced immigration of fish species would be expected. An explanation might be that water temperatures have increased offshore as well and hence fish remain longer there, delaying their immigration to the Wadden Sea. The main trend towards later date of peak occurrence and last day of occurrence was in line with our expectations: a forward shift in immigration into the Wadden Sea implies also that peak abundance is delayed. As a consequence of the increased water temperature, autumn water temperature remains favourable longer than before. For most of the species present, the Wadden Sea is not near the edge of their distributional range. The most striking phenological shifts occurred in those individual species for which the Wadden Sea is near the southern or northern edge of their distribution.

  2. Stand structure modulates the long-term vulnerability of Pinus halepensis to climatic drought in a semiarid Mediterranean ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Gutiérrez, Cristina; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Cherubini, Paolo; Saurer, Matthias; Nicolás, Emilio; Contreras, Sergio; Querejeta, José Ignacio

    2012-06-01

    We investigated whether stand structure modulates the long-term physiological performance and growth of Pinus halepensis Mill. in a semiarid Mediterranean ecosystem. Tree radial growth and carbon and oxygen stable isotope composition of latewood (δ(13)C(LW) and δ(18)O(LW), respectively) from 1967 to 2007 were measured in P. halepensis trees from two sharply contrasting stand types: open woodlands with widely scattered trees versus dense afforested stands. In both stand types, tree radial growth, δ(13)C(LW) and δ(18)O(LW) were strongly correlated with annual rainfall, thus indicating that tree performance in this semiarid environment is largely determined by inter-annual changes in water availability. However, trees in dense afforested stands showed consistently higher δ(18)O(LW) and similar δ(13)C(LW) values compared with those in neighbouring open woodlands, indicating lower stomatal conductance and photosynthesis rates in the former, but little difference in water use efficiency between stand types. Trees in dense afforested stands were more water stressed and showed lower radial growth, overall suggesting greater vulnerability to drought and climate aridification compared with trees in open woodlands. In this semiarid ecosystem, the negative impacts of intense inter-tree competition for water on P. halepensis performance clearly outweigh potential benefits derived from enhanced infiltration and reduced run-off losses in dense afforested stands. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

  4. Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevnina, Elena; Kourzeneva, Ekaterina; Kovalenko, Viktor; Vihma, Timo

    2017-05-01

    Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010-2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.

  5. Habitable Zones in the Universe

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalez, G.

    2005-01-01

    Habitability varies dramatically with location and time in the universe. This was recognized centuries ago, but it was only in the last few decades that astronomers began to systematize the study of habitability. The introduction of the concept of the habitable zone was key to progress in this area. The habitable zone concept was first applied to the space around a star, now called the Circumstellar Habitable Zone. Recently, other, vastly broader, habitable zones have been proposed. We review...

  6. Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Andrew C.; Glynn, Peter W.; Riegl, Bernhard

    2008-12-01

    Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on

  7. Consumption Habits and Humps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraft, Holger; Munk, Claus; Seifried, Frank Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We show that the optimal consumption of an individual over the life cycle can have the hump shape (inverted U-shape) observed empirically if the preferences of the individual exhibit internal habit formation. In the absence of habit formation, an impatient individual would prefer a decreasing...... consumption path over life. However, because of habit formation, a high initial consumption would lead to high required consumption in the future. To cover the future required consumption, wealth is set aside, but the necessary amount decreases with age which allows consumption to increase in the early part...... of life. At some age, the impatience outweighs the habit concerns so that consumption starts to decrease. We derive the optimal consumption strategy in closed form, deduce sufficient conditions for the presence of a consumption hump, and characterize the age at which the hump occurs. Numerical examples...

  8. Habitability: CAMELOT 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alequin, W.; Barragan, A.; Carro, M.; Garcia, F.; Gonzalez, I.; Mercado, J. A.; Negron, N.; Lopez, D.; Rivera, L. A.; Rivera, M.

    1990-01-01

    During 1988 to 1989 the NASA/USRA Advanced Design Program sponsored research and design efforts aimed at developing habitability criteria and at defining a habitability concept as a useful tool in understanding and evaluating dwellings for prolonged stays in extraterrestrial space. The Circulating Auto sufficient Mars-Earth Luxurious Orbital Transport (CAMELOT) was studied as a case in which the students would try to enhance the quality of life of the inhabitants by applying architectural design methodology. The study proposed 14 habitability criteria considered necessary to fulfill the defined habitability concept, which is that state of equilibrium that results from the interaction between components of the Individual Architecture Mission Complex, which allows a person to sustain physiological homeostatis, adequate performance, and acceptable social relationships. Architecture, design development, refinements and revisions to improve the quality of life, new insights on artificial gravity, form and constitution problems, and the final design concept are covered.

  9. Consumption Habits and Humps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraft, Holger; Munk, Claus; Seifried, Frank Thomas

    We show that the optimal consumption of an individual over the life cycle can have the hump shape (inverted U-shape) observed empirically if the preferences of the individual exhibit internal habit formation. In the absence of habit formation, an impatient individual would prefer a decreasing...... consumption path over life. However, because of habit formation, a high initial consumption would lead to high required consumption in the future. To cover the future required consumption, wealth is set aside, but the necessary amount decreases with age which allows consumption to increase in the early part...... of life. At some age, the impatience outweighs the habit concerns so that consumption starts to decrease. We derive the optimal consumption strategy in closed form, deduce sufficient conditions for the presence of a consumption hump, and characterize the age at which the hump occurs. Numerical examples...

  10. Habitability and the Multiverse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandora, M. E.

    2017-11-01

    Are the laws of physics set to maximize the habitability of the universe? We study how plate tectonics, core and mantle composition, homochirality, photosynthesis, and planet size depend on physics, and make predictions for where life will be found.

  11. Food Habits Database (FHDBS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NEFSC Food Habits Database has two major sources of data. The first, and most extensive, is the standard NEFSC Bottom Trawl Surveys Program. During these...

  12. Considerations for the habitable zone of super-Earth planets in Gliese 581

    OpenAIRE

    Chylek, P.; Perez, M. R.

    2007-01-01

    We assess the possibility that planets Gliese 581 c and d are within the habitable zone. In analogy with our solar system, we use an empirical definition of the habitable zone. We include assumptions such as planetary climates, and atmospheric circulation on gravitationally locked synchronous rotation. Based on the different scenarios, we argue that both planets in Gliese 581 could develop conditions for a habitable zone. In an Earth-like environment planet d could be within a habitable zone,...

  13. A Review of Habit Reversal with Childhood Habit Disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Douglas W.; Miltenberger, Raymond G.

    1996-01-01

    This paper first reviews four classes of habit disorders in children: motor and vocal tics, nervous habits, stuttering, and Tourette's disorder. It then describes the habit reversal procedure and reviews the literature on its use and variations to treat each of the four classes of habit disorders. Emphasis is on simplified versions of the original…

  14. Eating habits of students

    OpenAIRE

    Hoyer, Silvestra; Zupančič, Andreja

    2015-01-01

    The article deals with eating habits of students. Its purpose was to ascertaineating habits of students living outside their primary home and are under different forms of stress. Methods: the pattern is represented by students living in student homer where they can cook and prepare their own meals. In the research, 81 students living in the students home on Cesta v Mestni log in Ljubljana. The inquiry was composed from 34 questions. The data were processed with Microsoft Excel. Body mass inde...

  15. Hygiene habits through time

    OpenAIRE

    Kalan, Petra

    2013-01-01

    In this work I did a research about hygiene habits of people and their home environment. The work presents how the hygiene habits changed in people home environment through time. The work presents changes of the body hygiene standards adopted by people from the middle ages onward. Todays customs are quite different from the ones we had some time ago. Moreover, hygiene of living environment has also changes which resulted into lower death rate and death illness related to bad hygiene among pop...

  16. Smoking habit and gastritis histology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namiot, A; Kemona, A; Namiot, Z

    2007-01-01

    Long-term cigarette smoking may increase the risk of digestive tract pathologies, however, what is the influence smoking habit on gastric mucosa histology is still poorly elicited. The aim of the study was to compare histological evaluation of gastritis in smoker and non-smoker groups. A total of 236 patients of various H. pylori status (109 infected, 127 non-infected), clinical diagnosis (107 duodenal ulcer disease, 129 dyspepsia), and smoking habit (92 smokers, 144 non-smokers) were included. Subjects were classified as smokers if they smoked 5 or more cigarettes per day for at least 3 years. A histological examination of endoscopically obtained samples was performed by two experienced pathomorphologists blinded to the diagnoses and smoking habit. Microscopic slices of the gastric mucosa were stained with hematoxylin-eosin and Giemsa. Apart from histological diagnosis, H. pylori status was additionally confirmed by an urease test (CLO-test) at least in one of two gastric locations (antrum or corpus). In the H. pylori infected population, H. pylori density, neutrophils, and mononuclear cells infiltration in the gastric corpus mucosa were lower in smokers than non-smokers, while in the antrum the differences were not significant. In the non-infected population, no significant differences in neutrophils and mononuclear cells infiltration between smokers and non-smokers were found. Since the significant differences in studied parameters of chronic gastritis between smokers and non-smokers were found in the corpus mucosa of H. pylori infected subjects, smoking should be taken into account when a histological evaluation of the gastric mucosa in the H. pylori infected population is performed.

  17. Early Life Crises of Habitable Planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2006-01-01

    There are a number of crises that a potentially habitable planet must avoid or surmount if its potential is to be realized. These include the runaway greenhouse, loss of atmosphere by chemical or physical processes, and long-lasting global glaciation. In this lecture I will present research on the climate dynamics governing such processes, with particular emphasis on the lessons to be learned from the cases of Early Mars and the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth.

  18. The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, Catherine; Forsman, Eric D.; Franklin, Alan B.; Davis, Raymond J.; White, Gary C.; Schwarz, Carl J.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Doherty, Paul F.; Bailey, Larissa; Clark, Darren A.; Ackers, Steven H.; Andrews, Lawrence S.; Augustine, Benjamin; Biswell, Brian L.; Blakesley, Jennifer; Carlson, Peter C.; Clement, Matthew J.; Diller, Lowell V.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Green, Adam; Gremel, Scott A.; Herter, Dale R.; Higley, J. Mark; Hobson, Jeremy; Horn, Rob B.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; McCafferty, Christopher; McDonald, Trent; McDonnell, Kevin; Olson, Gail S.; Reid, Janice A.; Rockweit, Jeremy; Ruiz, Viviana; Saenz, Jessica; Sovern, Stan G.

    2016-01-01

    covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse

  19. Crop advisors as climate information brokers: Building the capacity of US farmers to adapt to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Carmen Lemos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the role of crop advisors as brokers of climate information to support US corn farmers to adapt to climatic change. It uses quantitative data collected from a broad survey of crop advisors in the US Corn Belt to examine the factors that shape advisors’ use of (and willingness to provide climate information to their clients. Building upon a general model of climate information usability we argue that advisors’ willingness to provide climate advice to farmers is influenced by three main factors: their information seeking habits and behavior, their experience with innovation in the past, and how climate information interplays with other kinds of information that they provide—especially agronomic advice. We find that advisors’ willingness to provide climate related information depends both on factors at the individual and organizational level and on the type of advice they provide. First, at the individual and organizational levels, advisors who work in supportive organizations and who collaborate with other advisors are more likely to provide climate information. Second, advisors are more likely to provide climate information if it does not interfere with their main profit making business (e.g. provision of agronomic advice. Third, there is a significant positive relationship between trust in a greater number or sources of information and use of climate information. Fourth, the way advisors perceive short- and long-term risk also influences their willingness to provide climate information; the more concerned they are about long-term climate-related risks to farming, the more likely they are to provide (or want to provide advice based on climate information. Differently from other empirical work in the literature, our analytical model suggests that neither negative experiences with climate information in the past nor the high level of uncertainty characteristic of climate information appear to influence advisors

  20. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over

  1. The evolution of habit in Tempskya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, C.B.

    1939-01-01

    1. The genus Tempskya Corda, of Upper Cretaceous age in western America, is characterized by a markedly dichotomous solenostelic stem system sheathed in a felt of its own adventitious roots. A composite stemlike structure is thus formed which has been termed a false stem. 2. As primary bases for the discussion, it is assumed that the false stem is a composite "organ" analogous to a true stem in certain respects; that form is influenced by habit, and that lack of perfect correlation is indicative of a structural lag; and that the false stem is much more plastic than the true stem and, in consequence, a close correlation of habit and internal structure is to be expected. 3. Arguments favoring a subterranean and obliquely ascending habit for these false stemmed types are presented. Likewise, arguments suggesting an erect treefern-like habit for the radially symmetrical false stems, and a climbing habit for the dorsiventral ones are given. It is believed that the available evidence favors the erect and the liana-like habits. 4. Assuming a radial Urform, for which there is ample justification both in theoretical morphology and in the Paleozoic record, the dorsiventral morphology of fern stems may be regarded as developed towards the close of the Paleozoic as an adaptation to rigorous climates which are known to have produced striking changes in the organic landscape. 5. From one of these early dorsiventral types with a dichotomous stem system, Tempskya may have been derived through the development of the scandent and tree-climbing habit, aided by the production of a mass of adventitious roots. Thus the false stem could be developed. 6. It follows that the more primitive habit in Tempskya is logically the climbing one reflected by the dorsiventral false stem. Old age of individuals may have been characterized by self-saprophytism and finally epiphytism. 7. The radial forms, it is believed, were developed from these dorsiventral climbing types as a result of the

  2. Long-term climate change effects on dynamics of microorganisms and carbon in the root-zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine

    Climate change factors such as elevated CO2 concentration, warming and changes in precipitation patterns have been shown to affect terrestrial carbon (C) cycling. The objective of this Ph.D. project is to track recently assimilated C into belowground compartments to investigate the effects...... of climate change on belowground C allocation. The impacts of climate change as single and combined treatments were applied to heath/grassland vegetation and the short-term terrestrial C turnover was investigated using in-situ 13CO2 pulse-labeling. We developed a mobile and low-cost pulse-labeling setup...... have major impacts on the C balance under changing climatic conditions. A comparison of C allocation under ambient and simulated future climatic conditions showed that the terrestrial C balance might be changed by reducing soil organic matter mineralization. Our results suggest that the impact...

  3. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  4. Long-term Records of Pacific Salmon Abundance From Sediment Core Analysis: Relationships to Past Climatic Change, and Implications for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, B.

    2002-12-01

    above and below average strength of the Aleutian Low pressure system. During periods of stronger low pressure, sea surface temperature anomalies are warm in the northeast Pacific and cool in the central and northwest Pacific, a condition referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO). Historically, during positive phases of the PDO Alaska salmon abundance is generally high. Consistent with this pattern, records of reconstructed sockeye salmon generally show higher abundance during warm periods over the past 300 years. However, the long-term trend suggests generally higher abundance during the cooler Little Ice Age, which southern Alaska glacial records suggest occurred between about 1200 - 1900 AD. The apparent complexity of salmon-climate relationships may be due to several factors. Long-term paleoclimate records from this region suggest additional modes of North Pacific climate variability, relative to the PDO. In addition, data on primary and secondary production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean indicates that climatic forcing has a direct impact on lower trophic levels, which subsequently affects salmon production. Thus records of ocean productivity, which are currently unavailable, may provide a mechanistic linkage between climate change and salmon abundance. The long-term perspective provided by the paleodata suggest that historical observations provide a limited understanding of how Pacific salmon respond to climatic change, and point to important areas of research necessary to better predict future responses.

  5. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  6. Is Recovery of Large-Bodied Zooplankton after Nutrient Loading Reduction Hampered by Climate Warming? A Long-Term Study of Shallow Hypertrophic Lake Søbygaard, Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Florencia Gutierrez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Nutrient fluctuations and climate warming can synergistically affect trophic dynamics in lakes, resulting in enhanced symptoms of eutrophication, thereby potentially counteracting restoration measures. We performed a long-term study (23 years of zooplankton in Danish Lake Søbygaard, which is in recovery after nutrient loading reduction, but now faces the effects of climate warming. We hypothesized that the recovery of large-bodied zooplankton after nutrient loading reduction would be hampered by climate warming through indirect effects on fish size structure. We found a shift in macrozooplankton from initial dominance of Daphnia spp. towards Bosmina spp. as well as a decline in the body size of copepods and an increase in the abundance of nauplii. These changes coincided with the increase in small sized fish as a result of rising water temperature. Despite a reduction in body size, the total biomass of cladocerans increased coinciding with a diminished fish catch per unit effort (CPUE, and likely then an overall reduction in the predation on zooplankton. A cascading effect to phytoplankton was evidenced by enhanced zooplankton:phytoplankton and cladoceran:phytoplankton ratios and a decrease in Chl-a:TP and Chl-a:TN ratios. Our results indicate that climate warming, through changes in the size structure of fish community, has major effects on zooplankton size structure. In Lake Søbygaard, the decline in zooplankton size did not prevent, but modulated, the positive cascading effect on phytoplankton through an expected diminished fish CPUE related to nutrient loading reduction.

  7. Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

  8. Geological constraints on continental arc activity since 720 Ma: implications for the link between long-term climate variability and episodicity of continental arcs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, W.; Lee, C. T.

    2016-12-01

    Continental arc volcanoes have been suggested to release more CO2 than island arc volcanoes due to decarbonation of wallrock carbonates in the continental upper plate through which the magmas traverse (Lee et al., 2013). Continental arcs may thus play an important role in long-term climate. To test this hypothesis, we compiled geological maps to reconstruct the surface distribution of granitoid plutons and the lengths of ancient continental arcs. These results were then compiled into a GIS framework and incorporated into GPlates plate reconstructions. Our results show an episodic nature of global continental arc activity since 720 Ma. The lengths of continental arcs were at minimums during most of the Cryogenian ( 720-670 Ma), the middle Paleozoic ( 460-300 Ma) and the Cenozoic ( 50-0 Ma). Arc lengths were highest during the Ediacaran ( 640-570 Ma), the early Paleozoic ( 550-430 Ma) and the entire Mesozoic with peaks in the Early Triassic ( 250-240 Ma), Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous ( 160-130 Ma), and Late Cretaceous ( 90-65 Ma). The extensive continental arcs in the Ediacaran and early Paleozoic reflect the Pan-African events and circum-Gondwana subduction during the assembly of the Gondwana supercontinent. The Early Triassic peak is coincident with the final closure of the paleo-Asian oceans and the onset of circum-Pacific subduction associated with the assembly of the Pangea supercontinent. The Jurassic-Cretaceous peaks reflect the extensive continental arcs established in the western Pacific, North and South American Cordillera, coincident with the initial dispersal of the Pangea. Continental arcs are favored during the final assembly and the early-stage dispersal of a supercontinent. Our compilation shows a temporal match between continental arc activity and long-term climate at least since 720 Ma. For example, continental arc activity was reduced during the Cryogenian icehouse event, and enhanced during the Early Paleozoic and Jurassic-Cretaceous greenhouse

  9. Few long-term effects of simulated climate change on volatile organic compound emissions and leaf chemistry of three subarctic dwarf shrubs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinnan, Riikka; Rinnan, Åsmund; Faubert, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is exposing arctic ecosystems to higher temperature, increased nutrient availability and shading due to the increasing cloud cover and the expanding forests. In this work, we assessed how these factors affect the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from three......-selinene from S. phylicifolia. The shading treatment obtained by dome-shaped hessian tents did not cause clear long-term changes in leaf chemistry or BVOC emissions. The only observed change was a marginally significant increase in sesquiterpene emissions from B. nana. When the treatment effects on long...

  10. Nitrogen deposition outweighs climatic variability in driving annual growth rate of canopy beech trees: Evidence from long-term growth reconstruction across a geographic gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentilesca, Tiziana; Rita, Angelo; Brunetti, Michele; Giammarchi, Francesco; Leonardi, Stefano; Magnani, Federico; van Noije, Twan; Tonon, Giustino; Borghetti, Marco

    2018-07-01

    In this study, we investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long-term tree growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. We sampled dominant trees at different developmental stages (from young to mature tree cohorts, with tree ages spanning from 35 to 160 years) and used stem analysis to infer historic reconstruction of tree volume and dominant height. Annual growth volume (G V ) and height (G H ) variability were related to annual variability in model simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition and site-specific climatic variables, (i.e. mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, mean growing period temperature, total growing period precipitation, and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index) and atmospheric CO 2 concentration, including tree cambial age among growth predictors. Generalized additive models (GAM), linear mixed-effects models (LMM), and Bayesian regression models (BRM) were independently employed to assess explanatory variables. The main results from our study were as follows: (i) tree age was the main explanatory variable for long-term growth variability; (ii) GAM, LMM, and BRM results consistently indicated climatic variables and CO 2 effects on G V and G H were weak, therefore evidence of recent climatic variability influence on beech annual growth rates was limited in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula; (iii) instead, significant positive nitrogen deposition (N dep ) effects were repeatedly observed in G V and G H ; the positive effects of N dep on canopy height growth rates, which tended to level off at N dep values greater than approximately 1.0 g m -2  y -1 , were interpreted as positive impacts on forest stand above-ground net productivity at the selected study sites. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. The radiogenic and stable Sr isotope geochemistry of basalt weathering in Iceland: Role of hydrothermal calcite and implications for long-term climate regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, M. Grace; Jacobson, Andrew D.

    2017-10-01

    Several studies have examined the geochemistry of Icelandic rivers to quantify the relationship between basalt weathering and long-term climate regulation. Recent research has suggested that the chemical weathering of hydrothermal and metamorphic calcite contributes significant quantities of HCO3- to the Icelandic riverine flux (Jacobson et al., 2015). Because the HCO3- derives from volcanic CO2 that was sequestered in mineral form prior to atmospheric injection, the strength of the basalt weathering feedback occurring in Iceland may be lower than previously realized. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed the radiogenic and stable Sr isotope composition (87Sr/86Sr and δ88/86Sr) of the same suite of water, rock, and mineral samples as examined in Jacobson et al. (2015), and we developed a simple model of the long-term C cycle that considers the transformation of volcanic CO2 to HCO3- during subsurface silicate weathering, which is a precursor to hydrothermal calcite formation. Interpretations based on 87Sr/86Sr and Ca/Sr ratios suggest that conservative, three-component mixing between basalt, calcite, and atmospheric deposition adequately explains river geochemistry. On average, the δ88/86Sr values of glacial and non-glacial rivers (0.414‰ and 0.388‰, respectively) are generally higher than those for basalt (0.276‰); however, calcite δ88/86Sr values (0.347‰) are also higher than those for basalt and span the range of riverine values. Thus, riverine δ88/86Sr values are also consistent three-component mixing between basalt, calcite, and atmospheric deposition. Isotopic fractionation is not required to explain riverine trends. Finally, model equations for the long-term C cycle demonstrate that subsurface silicate weathering reduces the magnitude of the volcanic CO2 degassing flux, which in turn causes the atmosphere to stabilize at lower pCO2 values compared to the case where no subsurface silicate weathering occurs. However, the proportion of the net

  12. Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M

    2016-01-01

    Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

  13. Exomoon Habitability Constrained by Illumination and Tidal Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Abstract The detection of moons orbiting extrasolar planets (“exomoons”) has now become feasible. Once they are discovered in the circumstellar habitable zone, questions about their habitability will emerge. Exomoons are likely to be tidally locked to their planet and hence experience days much shorter than their orbital period around the star and have seasons, all of which works in favor of habitability. These satellites can receive more illumination per area than their host planets, as the planet reflects stellar light and emits thermal photons. On the contrary, eclipses can significantly alter local climates on exomoons by reducing stellar illumination. In addition to radiative heating, tidal heating can be very large on exomoons, possibly even large enough for sterilization. We identify combinations of physical and orbital parameters for which radiative and tidal heating are strong enough to trigger a runaway greenhouse. By analogy with the circumstellar habitable zone, these constraints define a circumplanetary “habitable edge.” We apply our model to hypothetical moons around the recently discovered exoplanet Kepler-22b and the giant planet candidate KOI211.01 and describe, for the first time, the orbits of habitable exomoons. If either planet hosted a satellite at a distance greater than 10 planetary radii, then this could indicate the presence of a habitable moon. Key Words: Astrobiology—Extrasolar planets—Habitability—Habitable zone—Tides. Astrobiology 13, 18–46. PMID:23305357

  14. The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

    2016-01-04

    Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

  15. A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T.; Kjær, Erik D.; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B.; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-01-01

    Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. PMID:23836785

  16. The promotion of unhealthy habits in gay, lesbian, and straight intimate partnerships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reczek, Corinne

    2012-09-01

    Health habits are linked to nearly half of U.S. and British deaths annually. While a legacy of research suggests that marriage has important positive consequences for health habits, recent work emphasizes that intimate ties can also deter from healthy habits and promote unhealthy habits. However, few studies examine the mechanisms through which unhealthy habits are promoted in marriage. Moreover, little research explores how unhealthy habits are promoted in intimate ties other than marriage-such as in gay and lesbian cohabiting relationships. The present study analyzes the mechanisms through which gay, lesbian, and straight long-term partners (N = 120) contribute to one another's unhealthy habits. Three distinct mechanisms emerge. First, respondents identify a process of unilateral health habit diffusion wherein one partner's health habits directly influence the other partners' habits. Second, respondents describe bilateral unhealthy habit diffusion, wherein both partner's unhealthy habits are reinforced via mutual pleasure seeking or mutual failed motivation. Third, respondents describe a discourse of personal responsibility, wherein both partners purposefully fail to deter one another's unhealthy habits. Analysis further illustrates how these mechanisms operate differently for men and women in gay, lesbian, and straight relationships. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Long-Term Field Data and Climate-Habitat Models Show That Orangutan Persistence Depends on Effective Forest Management and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Stephen D.; Brook, Barry W.; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Fordham, Damien A.

    2012-01-01

    Background Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. Conclusions/Significance We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests. PMID:22970145

  18. Trajectories of martian habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockell, Charles S

    2014-02-01

    Beginning from two plausible starting points-an uninhabited or inhabited Mars-this paper discusses the possible trajectories of martian habitability over time. On an uninhabited Mars, the trajectories follow paths determined by the abundance of uninhabitable environments and uninhabited habitats. On an inhabited Mars, the addition of a third environment type, inhabited habitats, results in other trajectories, including ones where the planet remains inhabited today or others where planetary-scale life extinction occurs. By identifying different trajectories of habitability, corresponding hypotheses can be described that allow for the various trajectories to be disentangled and ultimately a determination of which trajectory Mars has taken and the changing relative abundance of its constituent environments.

  19. Habit and context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone; Jaeger, S. R.

    , but like the influence of context, quantification of its importance is lacking. To contribute to a closing of this gap, we analyse food dairy data from 100+ New Zealand consumers quantitatively with a variance component analysis. Food diaries, recording the eating occasion, beverages and meal food...... was used to examine the contribution of context factors (eating occasion, where, with whom), habit (share of beverage in consumption portfolio) and socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age) to explain the binary choice of seven main beverage types (water, hot beverages, milk, carbonated beverages...... predictor for its consumption likelihood. The impact of this measure for habit differed across beverages, for instance it played a larger role for hot beverages and water than for the consumption of beer and wine. Eating occasions and its interaction with place of consumption had highest explanatory power...

  20. Long-term energy and climate implications of carbon capture and storage deployment strategies in the US coal-fired electricity fleet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathre, Roger; Masanet, Eric

    2012-09-04

    To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.

  1. Smoking habits of nurses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Jacka

    1984-09-01

    Full Text Available There is little debate as to the harmful effects of cigarette smoking on health. Most health workers advise their patients to cease the practice. The impact of the advice is however diluted if it is seen to be ignored by the professionals themselves. As nurses play an increasing role in all levels of health care a survey was undertaken to investigate the smoking habits of two groups of nurses - those operating within the community and those working in institutions.

  2. Effective Physics Study Habits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zettili, Nouredine

    2011-04-01

    We discuss the methods of efficient study habits and how they can be used by students to help them improve learning physics. In particular, we deal with ideas pertaining to the most effective techniques needed to help students improve their physics study skills. These ideas were developed as part of Project IMPACTSEED (IMproving Physics And Chemistry Teaching in SEcondary Education), an outreach grant funded by the Alabama Commission on Higher Education. This project is motivated by a major pressing local need: A large number of high school physics teachers teach out of field. In the presentation, focus on topics such as the skills of how to develop long term memory, how to improve concentration power, how to take class notes, how to prepare for and take exams, how to study scientific subjects such as physics. We argue that the student who conscientiously uses the methods of efficient study habits will be able to achieve higher results than the student who does not; moreover, a student equipped with the proper study skills will spend much less time to learn a subject than a student who has no good study habits. The underlying issue here is not the quantity of time allocated to the study efforts by the student, but the efficiency and quality of actions. This work is supported by the Alabama Commission on Higher Education as part of IMPACTSEED grant.

  3. Covariation of climate and long-term erosion rates acrossa steep rainfall gradient on the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ken Ferrier,; J. Taylor Perron,; Sujoy Mukhopadhyay,; Matt Rosener,; Stock, Jonathan; Slosberg, Michelle; Kimberly L. Huppert,

    2013-01-01

    Erosion of volcanic ocean islands creates dramatic landscapes, modulates Earth’s carbon cycle, and delivers sediment to coasts and reefs. Because many volcanic islands have large climate gradients and minimal variations in lithology and tectonic history, they are excellent natural laboratories for studying climatic effects on the evolution of topography. Despite concerns that modern sediment fluxes to island coasts may exceed long-term fluxes, little is known about how erosion rates and processes vary across island interiors, how erosion rates are influenced by the strong climate gradients on many islands, and how modern island erosion rates compare to long-term rates. Here, we present new measurements of erosion rates over 5 yr to 5 m.y. timescales on the Hawaiian island of Kaua‘i, across which mean annual precipitation ranges from 0.5 to 9.5 m/yr. Eroded rock volumes from basins across Kaua‘i indicate that million-year-scale erosion rates are correlated with modern mean annual precipitation and range from 8 to 335 t km–2 yr–1. In Kaua‘i’s Hanalei River basin, 3He concentrations in detrital olivines imply millennial-scale erosion rates of >126 to >390 t km–2 yr–1 from olivine-bearing hillslopes, while fluvial suspended sediment fluxes measured from 2004 to 2009 plus estimates of chemical and bed-load fluxes imply basin-averaged erosion rates of 545 ± 128 t km–2 yr–1. Mapping of landslide scars in satellite imagery of the Hanalei basin from 2004 and 2010 implies landslide-driven erosion rates of 30–47 t km–2 yr–1. These measurements imply that modern erosion rates in the Hanalei basin are no more than 2.3 ± 0.6 times faster than millennial-scale erosion rates, and, to the extent that modern precipitation patterns resemble long-term patterns, they are consistent with a link between precipitation rates and long-term erosion rates.

  4. Condensation of long-term wave climates for the fatigue design of hydrodynamically sensitive offshore wind turbine support structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Passon, Patrik; Branner, Kim

    2016-01-01

    important for hydrodynamically sensitive structures since the applied met-ocean parameters have a non-linear influence on calculated fatigue design loads. The present article introduces a new wave lumping method for condensation of the wave climate. The novelty is predominantly based on refined equivalence......Cost-efficient and reliable fatigue designs of offshore wind turbine support structures require an adequate representation of the site-specific wind–wave joint distribution. Establishment of this wind–wave joint distribution for design load calculation purposes requires typically a correlation...... of the marginal wind and wave distribution. This is achieved by condensation of the site-specific wave climate in terms of wave period or wave height lumping, subsequently used as input for a correlation with the corresponding wind climate. The quality of this resulting wind–wave correlation is especially...

  5. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Habitable zone limits for dry planets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Yutaka; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Sleep, Norman H; Zahnle, Kevin J

    2011-06-01

    Most discussion of habitable planets has focused on Earth-like planets with globally abundant liquid water. For an "aqua planet" like Earth, the surface freezes if far from its sun, and the water vapor greenhouse effect runs away if too close. Here we show that "land planets" (desert worlds with limited surface water) have wider habitable zones than aqua planets. For planets at the inner edge of the habitable zone, a land planet has two advantages over an aqua planet: (i) the tropics can emit longwave radiation at rates above the traditional runaway limit because the air is unsaturated and (ii) the dry air creates a dry stratosphere that limits hydrogen escape. At the outer limits of the habitable zone, the land planet better resists global freezing because there is less water for clouds, snow, and ice. Here we describe a series of numerical experiments using a simple three-dimensional global climate model for Earth-sized planets. Other things (CO(2), rotation rate, surface pressure) unchanged, we found that liquid water remains stable at the poles of a low-obliquity land planet until net insolation exceeds 415 W/m(2) (170% that of modern Earth), compared to 330 W/m(2) (135%) for the aqua planet. At the outer limits, we found that a low-obliquity land planet freezes at 77%, while the aqua planet freezes at 90%. High-obliquity land and aqua planets freeze at 58% and 72%, respectively, with the poles offering the last refuge. We show that it is possible that, as the Sun brightens, an aqua planet like Earth can lose most of its hydrogen and become a land planet without first passing through a sterilizing runaway greenhouse. It is possible that Venus was a habitable land planet as recently as 1 billion years ago.

  7. Effects of harvesting forest biomass on water and climate regulation services: A synthesis of long-term ecosystem experiments in eastern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caputo, Jesse; Beier, Colin D; Groffman, Peter M; Burns, Douglas A.; Beall, Frederick D; Hazlett, Paul W.; Yorks, Thad E

    2016-01-01

    Demand for woody biomass fuels is increasing amidst concerns about global energy security and climate change, but there may be negative implications of increased harvesting for forest ecosystem functions and their benefits to society (ecosystem services). Using new methods for assessing ecosystem services based on long-term experimental research, post-harvest changes in ten potential benefits were assessed for ten first-order northern hardwood forest watersheds at three long-term experimental research sites in northeastern North America. As expected, we observed near-term tradeoffs between biomass provision and greenhouse gas regulation, as well as tradeoffs between intensive harvest and the capacity of the forest to remediate nutrient pollution. In both cases, service provision began to recover along with the regeneration of forest vegetation; in the case of pollution remediation, the service recovered to pre-harvest levels within 10 years. By contrast to these two services, biomass harvesting had relatively nominal and transient impacts on other ecosystem services. Our results are sensitive to empirical definitions of societal demand, including methods for scaling societal demand to ecosystem units, which are often poorly resolved. Reducing uncertainty around these parameters can improve confidence in our results and increase their relevance for decision-making. Our synthesis of long-term experimental studies provides insights on the social-ecological resilience of managed forest ecosystems to multiple drivers of change.

  8. Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghiami-Shamami, Fereshteh; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar; Shinoda, Seirou

    2018-06-01

    The present study examined annually and seasonally trends in climate-based and location-based indices after detection of artificial change points and application of homogenization. Thirteen temperature and eight precipitation indices were generated at 27 meteorological stations over Iran during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for trend detection. Results revealed that almost all indices based on minimum temperature followed warmer conditions. Indicators based on minimum temperature showed less consistency with more cold and less warm events. Climate-based results for all extremes indicated semi-arid climate had the most warming events. Moreover, based on location-based results, inland areas showed the most signs of warming. Indices based on precipitation exhibited a negative trend in warm seasons, with the most changes in coastal areas and inland, respectively. Results provided evidence of warming and drying since the 1990s. Changes in precipitation indices were much weaker and less spatially coherent. Summer was found to be the most sensitive season, in comparison with winter. For arid and semi-arid regions, by increasing the latitude, less warm events occurred, while increasing the longitude led to more warming events. Overall, Iran is dominated by a significant increase in warm events, especially minimum temperature-based indices (nighttime). This result, in addition to fewer precipitation events, suggests a generally dryer regime for the future, which is more evident in the warm season of semi-arid sites. The results could provide beneficial references for water resources and eco-environmental policymakers.

  9. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios

  10. Long-term plant responses to climate are moderated by biophysical attributes in a North American desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Housman, David C.; Veblen, Kari E.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Beever, Erik A.; Hartney, Kristine B.; Miriti, Maria N.; Phillips, Susan L.; Fulton, Robert E.; Tallent, Nita G.

    2015-01-01

    Recent elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts in many already water-limited regions throughout the world, including the southwestern U.S., are likely to intensify according to future climate-model projections. This warming and drying can negatively affect perennial vegetation and lead to the degradation of ecosystem properties.

  11. Transforming Service Employees and Climate: A Multilevel, Multisource Examination of Transformational Leadership in Building Long-Term Service Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Hui; Chuang, Aichia

    2007-01-01

    This longitudinal field study integrates the theories of transformational leadership (TFL) and relationship marketing to examine how TFL influences employee service performance and customer relationship outcomes by transforming both (at the micro level) the service employees' attitudes and (at the macro level) the work unit's service climate.…

  12. Offshore CCS and ocean acidification : A global long-term probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaan, B.C.C.; Gerlagh, Reyer

    Public fear over environmental and health impacts of CO2 storage, or over potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs, is among the reasons why over the past decade CCS has not yet been deployed on a scale large enough so as to meaningfully contribute to mitigate climate change. Storage of

  13. Cross-regional prediction of long-term trajectory of stream water DOC response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Laudon; J.M. Buttle; S.K. Carey; J.J. McDonnell; K.J. McGuire; J. Seibert; J. Shanley; C. Soulsby; D. Tetzlaff

    2012-01-01

    There is no scientific consensus about how dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface waters is regulated. Here we combine recent literature data from 49 catchments with detailed stream and catchment process information from nine well established research catchments at mid- to high latitudes to examine the question of how climate controls stream water DOC. We show for...

  14. Long-Term Youth Criminal Outcomes in MST Transport: The Impact of Therapist Adherence and Organizational Climate and Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenwald, Sonja K.; Chapman, Jason E.; Sheidow, Ashli J.; Carter, Rickey E.

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated relations among therapist adherence to an evidence-based treatment for youth with serious antisocial behavior (i.e., Multisystemic Therapy), organizational climate and structure, and youth criminal charges on average 4 years posttreatment. Participants were 1,979 youth and families treated by 429 therapists across 45…

  15. Comparison and statistical analysis of long-term overheating indices applied on energy renovated dwellings in temperate climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psomas, Theofanis Ch.; Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Duer, Karsten

    2018-01-01

    -running’ representative dwellings and characteristic climatic conditions of central Europe (Denmark, United Kingdom, Austria and France). Different renovation steps and passive cooling strategies were applied on these case studies creating 66 variants for comfort assessment. The analyses were conducted with the use...

  16. Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea in relation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Walraven, L.; Dapper, R.; Nauw, J.J.; Tulp, I.; Witte, J.IJ.; van der Veer, H.W.

    2017-01-01

    Long-term patterns in fish phenology in the western Dutch Wadden Sea were studied using a 53 year (1960–2013) high resolution time series of daily kom-fyke catches in spring and autumn. Trends in first appearance, last occurrence and peak abundance were analysed for the most common species in

  17. Coupled Long-Term Evolution of Climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial and Implications for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lofverstrom, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.

    2017-12-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is expected to contribute increasingly to global sea level rise by the end of this century, and potentially several meters in this millennium, but still with considerable uncertainty. The rate of Greenland melt will impact on regional sea levels. The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129 ka to 116 ka) is recognized as an important period for testing our knowledge of climate-ice sheet interactions in warm climate states. Although the LIG was discussed in the First Assessment Report of the IPCC, it gained more prominence in the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment (AR4 and AR5) with reconstructions highlighting that global mean sea level was at least 5 m higher (but probably no more than 10 m higher) than present for several thousand years during the LIG. Model results assessed for the AR5 suggest a sea level contribution of 1.4 to 4.3 m from the GrIS. These model simulations, though, did not include all the feedbacks of the climate system and the GrIS. Here, we examine the response of the Arctic climate system and the GrIS in simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) fully coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), using a surface energy balance scheme and without bias corrections. The analysis focuses on how the GrIS responds to the imposed high boreal summer insolation of the LIG and in addition, to the long-term feedbacks of high-latitude vegetation changes. Results will highlight the evolution of the ice sheet and the surface mass balance (patterns of ablation and accumulation) as compared to data-based reconstructions for the LIG. We conclude with a discussion on how the LIG may be informative as a potential process analogue for the GrIS response for future centuries to come.

  18. Exomoon habitability constrained by illumination and tidal heating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, René; Barnes, Rory

    2013-01-01

    The detection of moons orbiting extrasolar planets ("exomoons") has now become feasible. Once they are discovered in the circumstellar habitable zone, questions about their habitability will emerge. Exomoons are likely to be tidally locked to their planet and hence experience days much shorter than their orbital period around the star and have seasons, all of which works in favor of habitability. These satellites can receive more illumination per area than their host planets, as the planet reflects stellar light and emits thermal photons. On the contrary, eclipses can significantly alter local climates on exomoons by reducing stellar illumination. In addition to radiative heating, tidal heating can be very large on exomoons, possibly even large enough for sterilization. We identify combinations of physical and orbital parameters for which radiative and tidal heating are strong enough to trigger a runaway greenhouse. By analogy with the circumstellar habitable zone, these constraints define a circumplanetary "habitable edge." We apply our model to hypothetical moons around the recently discovered exoplanet Kepler-22b and the giant planet candidate KOI211.01 and describe, for the first time, the orbits of habitable exomoons. If either planet hosted a satellite at a distance greater than 10 planetary radii, then this could indicate the presence of a habitable moon.

  19. Analyzing the contribution of climate change to long-term variations in sediment nitrogen sources for reservoirs/lakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xia, Xinghui, E-mail: xiaxh@bnu.edu.cn [School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation/Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875 (China); Wu, Qiong; Zhu, Baotong; Zhao, Pujun [School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation/Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875 (China); Zhang, Shangwei [Department of Isotope Biogeochemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research — UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, Leipzig 04318 (Germany); Yang, Lingyan [Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center, Beijing 100048 (China)

    2015-08-01

    We applied a mixing model based on stable isotopic δ{sup 13}C, δ{sup 15}N, and C:N ratios to estimate the contributions of multiple sources to sediment nitrogen. We also developed a conceptual model describing and analyzing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. These two models were conducted in Miyun Reservoir to analyze the contribution of climate change to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources based on two {sup 210}Pb and {sup 137}Cs dated sediment cores. The results showed that during the past 50 years, average contributions of soil and fertilizer, submerged macrophytes, N{sub 2}-fixing phytoplankton, and non-N{sub 2}-fixing phytoplankton were 40.7%, 40.3%, 11.8%, and 7.2%, respectively. In addition, total nitrogen (TN) contents in sediment showed significant increasing trends from 1960 to 2010, and sediment nitrogen of both submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton sources exhibited significant increasing trends during the past 50 years. In contrast, soil and fertilizer sources showed a significant decreasing trend from 1990 to 2010. According to the changing trend of N{sub 2}-fixing phytoplankton, changes of temperature and sunshine duration accounted for at least 43% of the trend in the sediment nitrogen enrichment over the past 50 years. Regression analysis of the climatic factors on nitrogen sources showed that the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources ranged from 18.5% to 60.3%. The study demonstrates that the mixing model provides a robust method for calculating the contribution of multiple nitrogen sources in sediment, and this study also suggests that N{sub 2}-fixing phytoplankton could be regarded as an important response factor for assessing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. - Highlights: • A mixing model was built to analyze sediment N sources of lakes/reservoirs. • Fertilizer/soil and macrophytes showed decreasing trends during

  20. Analyzing the contribution of climate change to long-term variations in sediment nitrogen sources for reservoirs/lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xia, Xinghui; Wu, Qiong; Zhu, Baotong; Zhao, Pujun; Zhang, Shangwei; Yang, Lingyan

    2015-01-01

    We applied a mixing model based on stable isotopic δ 13 C, δ 15 N, and C:N ratios to estimate the contributions of multiple sources to sediment nitrogen. We also developed a conceptual model describing and analyzing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. These two models were conducted in Miyun Reservoir to analyze the contribution of climate change to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources based on two 210 Pb and 137 Cs dated sediment cores. The results showed that during the past 50 years, average contributions of soil and fertilizer, submerged macrophytes, N 2 -fixing phytoplankton, and non-N 2 -fixing phytoplankton were 40.7%, 40.3%, 11.8%, and 7.2%, respectively. In addition, total nitrogen (TN) contents in sediment showed significant increasing trends from 1960 to 2010, and sediment nitrogen of both submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton sources exhibited significant increasing trends during the past 50 years. In contrast, soil and fertilizer sources showed a significant decreasing trend from 1990 to 2010. According to the changing trend of N 2 -fixing phytoplankton, changes of temperature and sunshine duration accounted for at least 43% of the trend in the sediment nitrogen enrichment over the past 50 years. Regression analysis of the climatic factors on nitrogen sources showed that the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources ranged from 18.5% to 60.3%. The study demonstrates that the mixing model provides a robust method for calculating the contribution of multiple nitrogen sources in sediment, and this study also suggests that N 2 -fixing phytoplankton could be regarded as an important response factor for assessing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. - Highlights: • A mixing model was built to analyze sediment N sources of lakes/reservoirs. • Fertilizer/soil and macrophytes showed decreasing trends during the past two decades.

  1. Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

  2. How does climate influence xylem morphogenesis over the growing season? Insights from long-term intra-ring anatomy in Picea abies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castagneri, Daniele; Fonti, Patrick; von Arx, Georg; Carrer, Marco

    2017-04-01

    During the growing season, the cambium of conifer trees produces successive rows of xylem cells, the tracheids, that sequentially pass through the phases of enlargement and secondary wall thickening before dying and becoming functional. Climate variability can strongly influence the kinetics of morphogenetic processes, eventually affecting tracheid shape and size. This study investigates xylem anatomical structure in the stem of Picea abies to retrospectively infer how, in the long term, climate affects the processes of cell enlargement and wall thickening. Tracheid anatomical traits related to the phases of enlargement (diameter) and wall thickening (wall thickness) were innovatively inspected at the intra-ring level on 87-year-long tree-ring series in Picea abies trees along a 900 m elevation gradient in the Italian Alps. Anatomical traits in ten successive tree-ring sectors were related to daily temperature and precipitation data using running correlations. Close to the altitudinal tree limit, low early-summer temperature negatively affected cell enlargement. At lower elevation, water availability in early summer was positively related to cell diameter. The timing of these relationships shifted forward by about 20 (high elevation) to 40 (low elevation) d from the first to the last tracheids in the ring. Cell wall thickening was affected by climate in a different period in the season. In particular, wall thickness of late-formed tracheids was strongly positively related to August-September temperature at high elevation. Morphogenesis of tracheids sequentially formed in the growing season is influenced by climate conditions in successive periods. The distinct climate impacts on cell enlargement and wall thickening indicate that different morphogenetic mechanisms are responsible for different tracheid traits. Our approach of long-term and high-resolution analysis of xylem anatomy can support and extend short-term xylogenesis observations, and increase our

  3. Computer codes for evaluation of control room habitability (HABIT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stage, S.A.

    1996-06-01

    This report describes the Computer Codes for Evaluation of Control Room Habitability (HABIT). HABIT is a package of computer codes designed to be used for the evaluation of control room habitability in the event of an accidental release of toxic chemicals or radioactive materials. Given information about the design of a nuclear power plant, a scenario for the release of toxic chemicals or radionuclides, and information about the air flows and protection systems of the control room, HABIT can be used to estimate the chemical exposure or radiological dose to control room personnel. HABIT is an integrated package of several programs that previously needed to be run separately and required considerable user intervention. This report discusses the theoretical basis and physical assumptions made by each of the modules in HABIT and gives detailed information about the data entry windows. Sample runs are given for each of the modules. A brief section of programming notes is included. A set of computer disks will accompany this report if the report is ordered from the Energy Science and Technology Software Center. The disks contain the files needed to run HABIT on a personal computer running DOS. Source codes for the various HABIT routines are on the disks. Also included are input and output files for three demonstration runs

  4. Seasonality intensification and long-term winter cooling as a part of the Late Pliocene climate development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Stefan; Fauquette, Séverine; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Uhl, Dieter; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Mosbrugger, Volker

    2006-01-01

    A mutual climatic range method is applied to the Mediterranean marine pollen record of Semaforo (Vrica section, Calabria, Italy) covering the period from ∼2.46 Ma to ∼2.11 Ma. The method yields detailed information on summer, annual and winter temperatures and on precipitation during the nine obliquity and precession-controlled 'glacial' periods (marine isotope stages 96 to 80) and eight 'interglacial' periods (marine isotope stages 95 to 81) characterising this time interval. The reconstruction reveals higher temperatures of at least 2.8 °C in mean annual and 2.2 °C in winter temperatures, and 500 mm in precipitation during the 'interglacials' as compared to the present-day climate in the study area. During the 'glacials', temperatures are generally lower as compared to the present-day climate in the region, but precipitation is equivalent. Along the consecutive 'interglacials', a trend toward a reduction in annual and winter temperatures by more than 2.3 °C, and toward a higher seasonality is observed. Along the consecutive 'glacials', a trend toward a strong reduction in all temperature parameters of at least 1.6 °C is reconstructed. Climatic amplitudes of 'interglacial-glacial' transitions increase from the older to the younger cycles for summer and annual temperatures. The cross-spectral analyses suggest obliquity related warm/humid-cold/dry 'interglacial-glacial' cycles which are superimposed by precession related warm/dry- cold/humid cycles. A time displacement in the development of temperatures and precipitation is indicated for the obliquity band by temperatures generally leading precipitation change at ∼4 kyr, and on the precession band of ∼9.6 kyr in maximum.

  5. The Saturniidae of Barro Colorado Islands, Panama: A model taxon for studying the long-term effects of climate change?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Basset, Y.; Lamarre, Greg P. A.; Ratz, T.; Segar, Simon Tristram; Decaëns, T.; Rougerie, R.; Miller, S. E.; Perez, F.; Bobadilla, R.; Lopez, Y.; Ramirez, J. A.; Aiello, A.; Barrios, H.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 23 (2017), s. 9991-10004 ISSN 2045-7758 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36098G EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 669609 - Diversity6continents Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : climatic anomalies * DNA barcoding * functional groups Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 2.440, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.3515/epdf

  6. Plant Species Rather Than Climate Greatly Alters the Temporal Pattern of Litter Chemical Composition During Long-Term Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongfu; Chen, Na; Harmon, Mark E.; Li, Yuan; Cao, Xiaoyan; Chappell, Mark A.; Mao, Jingdong

    2015-10-01

    A feedback between decomposition and litter chemical composition occurs with decomposition altering composition that in turn influences the decomposition rate. Elucidating the temporal pattern of chemical composition is vital to understand this feedback, but the effects of plant species and climate on chemical changes remain poorly understood, especially over multiple years. In a 10-year decomposition experiment with litter of four species (Acer saccharum, Drypetes glauca, Pinus resinosa, and Thuja plicata) from four sites that range from the arctic to tropics, we determined the abundance of 11 litter chemical constituents that were grouped into waxes, carbohydrates, lignin/tannins, and proteins/peptides using advanced 13C solid-state NMR techniques. Decomposition generally led to an enrichment of waxes and a depletion of carbohydrates, whereas the changes of other chemical constituents were inconsistent. Inconsistent convergence in chemical compositions during decomposition was observed among different litter species across a range of site conditions, whereas one litter species converged under different climate conditions. Our data clearly demonstrate that plant species rather than climate greatly alters the temporal pattern of litter chemical composition, suggesting the decomposition-chemistry feedback varies among different plant species.

  7. UNEP-IOC-WMO-IUCN meeting of experts on a long-term global monitoring system of coastal and near-shore phenomena related to climate change, pilot projects and mangroves and coral reefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    This meeting was held to develop strategies for long-term global monitoring of coastal and near-shore phenomena related to climate change, specifically mangroves and coral reefs. The agenda included an overview of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) initiative, modules and pilot phase activities. Action plans for the implementation of long-term monitoring of mangrove and coral reef ecosystems were developed including; potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on mangroves and coral reefs, consideration of parameters, consideration of methodologies, relationships of proposed activities to relevant national, regional and international developments, consideration of monitoring sites, and future implementation.

  8. SMEs’ Purchasing Habits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emre S. Ozmen

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Although micro companies overpower the small and medium enterprise (SME segment, generalizations are often with medium size companies, and therefore, there are many unknowns, especially when it comes to its buying behavior. Conformist studies and industry practices assume SMEs to be “normative” or “conservative” buyers; however, this hypothesis is untested. This article aims to scrutinize the reality, and proposes a unified model that rejects pre-containerization in buying behavior typologies, as well as selectiveness in terms of audience type, whether it is corporate, SME, or consumer. While replacing researchers’ perceptions with the audience’s, the model yields actual knowledge that can lead to audience’s beliefs in lieu of the opposite, which is used to mislead stakeholders. The study shows that SMEs also buy like individuals and spend in a similar way to consumers’, including not only “normative” and “conservative” but also “negligent” and “impulse” zones. From the research-implications perspective, future studies by behaviorists can explore why SMEs purchase in this way. Marketers may benefit from the finding that SMEs buy like individuals. In addition, SMEs may want to be conscious of their purchasing habits, and—utilizing the newly introduced “risk score” frontier—policymakers should assess the consequences of these habits at the macro level.

  9. Ecosystem partitioning of 15N-glycine after long-term climate and nutrient manipulations, plant clipping and addition of labile carbon in a subarctic heath tundra

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Pernille Lærkedal; Michelsen, Anders; Jonasson, Sven Evert

    2008-01-01

    of nitrogen (N). Here, we studied 15N label incorporation into microbes, plants and soil N pools after both long-term (12 years) climate manipulation and nutrient addition, plant clipping and a pulse-addition of labile C to the soil, in order to gain information on interactions among soil N and C pools...... addition. However, plants exerted control on the soil inorganic N concentrations and recovery of total dissolved 15N (TD15N), and likewise the microbes reduced these soil pools, but only when fed with labile C. Soil microbes in clipped plots were primarily C limited, and the findings of reduced N...... availability, both in the presence of plants and with the combined treatment of plant clipping and addition of sugar, suggest that the plant control of soil N pools was not solely due to plant uptake of soil N, but also partially caused by plants feeding labile C to the soil microbes, which enhanced...

  10. Snacking now or later? Individual differences in following intentions or habits explained by time perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onwezen, M C; Van 't Riet, J; Dagevos, H; Sijtsema, S J; Snoek, H M

    2016-12-01

    Even when individuals are aware of long-term health effects of their diet, and form healthy intentions, they often engage in relatively unhealthy snacking habits. Some individuals fall back on unhealthy habits more easily than others. We aim to explore whether time perspective can explain why some individuals are more prone to rely on habits and others on intentions. Study 1 (N = 1503) provides a first exploration of the role of time perspective by exploring individual differences in perception of long-term and short-term consequences. In accordance with our hypotheses, Study 1 shows that habits are associated with short-term consequences and intentions with long-term consequences. Study 2 (N = 1497) shows that the effects of habits on snacking behaviour are strengthened by a present time perspective, whereas the effects of intentions on snacking behaviour are strengthened by a future time perspective. These findings imply that there is a fundamental difference in the guiding function of intentions and habits which might explain individual differences in following intentions versus habits. Individuals with a long-term perspective are more inclined to follow intentions and individuals with a short-term perspective are more inclined to follow habits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Snacking now or later? Individual differences in following intentions or habits explained by time perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onwezen, M.C.; Riet, van 't J.; Dagevos, H.; Sijtsema, S.J.; Snoek, H.M.

    2016-01-01

    Even when individuals are aware of long-term health effects of their diet, and form healthy intentions, they often engage in relatively unhealthy snacking habits. Some individuals fall back on unhealthy habits more easily than others. We aim to explore whether time perspective can explain why

  12. Snacking now or later? Individual differences in following intentions or habits explained by time perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onwezen, M.C.; Riet, J.P. van 't; Dagevos, H.; Sijtsema, S.J.; Snoek, H.M.

    2016-01-01

    Even when individuals are aware of long-term health effects of their diet, and form healthy intentions, they often engage in relatively unhealthy snacking habits. Some individuals fall back on unhealthy habits more easily than others. We aim to explore whether time perspective can explain why some

  13. Can resistant coral-Symbiodinium associations enable coral communities to survive climate change? A study of a site exposed to long-term hot water input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shashank Keshavmurthy

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has led to a decline in the health of corals and coral reefs around the world. Studies have shown that, while some corals can cope with natural and anthropogenic stressors either through resistance mechanisms of coral hosts or through sustainable relationships with Symbiodinium clades or types, many coral species cannot. Here, we show that the corals present in a reef in southern Taiwan, and exposed to long-term elevated seawater temperatures due to the presence of a nuclear power plant outlet (NPP OL, are unique in terms of species and associated Symbiodinium types. At shallow depths (<3 m, eleven coral genera elsewhere in Kenting predominantly found with Symbiodinium types C1 and C3 (stress sensitive were instead hosting Symbiodinium type D1a (stress tolerant or a mixture of Symbiodinium type C1/C3/C21a/C15 and Symbiodinium type D1a. Of the 16 coral genera that dominate the local reefs, two that are apparently unable to associate with Symbiodinium type D1a are not present at NPP OL at depths of <3 m. Two other genera present at NPP OL and other locations host a specific type of Symbiodinium type C15. These data imply that coral assemblages may have the capacity to maintain their presence at the generic level against long-term disturbances such as elevated seawater temperatures by acclimatization through successful association with a stress-tolerant Symbiodinium over time. However, at the community level it comes at the cost of some coral genera being lost, suggesting that species unable to associate with a stress-tolerant Symbiodinium are likely to become extinct locally and unfavorable shifts in coral communities are likely to occur under the impact of climate change.

  14. No Snowball on Habitable Tidally Locked Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checlair, Jade; Menou, Kristen; Abbot, Dorian S.

    2017-08-01

    The TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and LHS 1140 systems are the most exciting prospects for future follow-up observations of potentially inhabited planets. All of the planets orbit nearby M-stars and are likely tidally locked in 1:1 spin–orbit states, which motivates the consideration of the effects that tidal locking might have on planetary habitability. On Earth, periods of global glaciation (snowballs) may have been essential for habitability and remote signs of life (biosignatures) because they are correlated with increases in the complexity of life and in the atmospheric oxygen concentration. In this paper, we investigate the snowball bifurcation (sudden onset of global glaciation) on tidally locked planets using both an energy balance model and an intermediate-complexity global climate model. We show that tidally locked planets are unlikely to exhibit a snowball bifurcation as a direct result of the spatial pattern of insolation they receive. Instead, they will smoothly transition from partial to complete ice coverage and back. A major implication of this work is that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle should not be found in a snowball state. Moreover, this work implies that tidally locked planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone with low CO2 outgassing fluxes will equilibrate with a small unglaciated substellar region rather than cycling between warm and snowball states. More work is needed to determine how the lack of a snowball bifurcation might affect the development of life on a tidally locked planet.

  15. No Snowball on Habitable Tidally Locked Planets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Checlair, Jade; Abbot, Dorian S. [Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Menou, Kristen, E-mail: jadecheclair@uchicago.edu [Centre for Planetary Sciences, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Toronto, ON M1C 1A4 (Canada)

    2017-08-20

    The TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and LHS 1140 systems are the most exciting prospects for future follow-up observations of potentially inhabited planets. All of the planets orbit nearby M-stars and are likely tidally locked in 1:1 spin–orbit states, which motivates the consideration of the effects that tidal locking might have on planetary habitability. On Earth, periods of global glaciation (snowballs) may have been essential for habitability and remote signs of life (biosignatures) because they are correlated with increases in the complexity of life and in the atmospheric oxygen concentration. In this paper, we investigate the snowball bifurcation (sudden onset of global glaciation) on tidally locked planets using both an energy balance model and an intermediate-complexity global climate model. We show that tidally locked planets are unlikely to exhibit a snowball bifurcation as a direct result of the spatial pattern of insolation they receive. Instead, they will smoothly transition from partial to complete ice coverage and back. A major implication of this work is that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle should not be found in a snowball state. Moreover, this work implies that tidally locked planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone with low CO{sub 2} outgassing fluxes will equilibrate with a small unglaciated substellar region rather than cycling between warm and snowball states. More work is needed to determine how the lack of a snowball bifurcation might affect the development of life on a tidally locked planet.

  16. No Snowball on Habitable Tidally Locked Planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Checlair, Jade; Abbot, Dorian S.; Menou, Kristen

    2017-01-01

    The TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and LHS 1140 systems are the most exciting prospects for future follow-up observations of potentially inhabited planets. All of the planets orbit nearby M-stars and are likely tidally locked in 1:1 spin–orbit states, which motivates the consideration of the effects that tidal locking might have on planetary habitability. On Earth, periods of global glaciation (snowballs) may have been essential for habitability and remote signs of life (biosignatures) because they are correlated with increases in the complexity of life and in the atmospheric oxygen concentration. In this paper, we investigate the snowball bifurcation (sudden onset of global glaciation) on tidally locked planets using both an energy balance model and an intermediate-complexity global climate model. We show that tidally locked planets are unlikely to exhibit a snowball bifurcation as a direct result of the spatial pattern of insolation they receive. Instead, they will smoothly transition from partial to complete ice coverage and back. A major implication of this work is that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle should not be found in a snowball state. Moreover, this work implies that tidally locked planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone with low CO 2 outgassing fluxes will equilibrate with a small unglaciated substellar region rather than cycling between warm and snowball states. More work is needed to determine how the lack of a snowball bifurcation might affect the development of life on a tidally locked planet.

  17. Modulation of the erosion rate of an uplifting landscape by long-term climate change: An experimental investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussirou, Bérangé; Bonnet, Stéphane

    2018-02-01

    Whether or not climatic variations play a major role in setting the erosion rate of continental landscapes is a key factor in demonstrating the influence of climate on the tectonic evolution of mountain belts and understanding how clastic deposits preserved in sedimentary basins may record climatic variations. Here, we investigate how a change in precipitation influences the erosional dynamics of laboratory-scale landscapes that evolved under a combination of uplift and rainfall forcings. We consider here the impact of a decrease in the precipitation rate of finite duration on the erosive response of a landscape forced by a constant uplift and initially at a steady state (SS1). We performed several experiments with the same amplitude but different durations of precipitation decrease (Tp). We observe that the decrease in precipitation induces a phase of surface uplift of landscapes to a new steady state condition (SS2); however, the details of the uplift histories (timing, rate) differ between the experiments according to Tp. We also observe a decrease in the erosion rate induced by the precipitation change; however, the timing and amplitude of this decrease vary according to Tp, defining a delayed and damped erosion signal. Our data show that the landscape response to precipitation change is dictated by a critical water-to-rock ratio (ratio of precipitation over uplift) that likely corresponds to a geomorphic threshold. Our study suggests that variations in precipitation that occur at a geological time scale (> 106 years) may have a weak impact on the erosion of landscapes and on the delivery of siliciclastic material to large rivers and sedimentary basins.

  18. Long-term change of potential evapotranspiration over Southwest China and teleconnections with large-scale climate anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Chen, X.; Li, Y.; Chen, Z.

    2017-12-01

    bstract: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a sensitive factor for atmospheric and ecological systems over Southwest China which is characterized by intensive karst geomorphology and fragile environment. Based on daily meteorological data of 94 stations during 1961-2013, the spatiotemporal characteristics of PET are analyzed. The changing characteristics of local meteorological factors and large-scale climatic features are also investigated to explain the potential reasons for changing PET. Study results are as follows: (1) The high-value center of PET with a mean value of 1097 mm/a locates in the south mainly resulted from the regional climatic features of higher air temperature (TEM), sunshine duration (SSD) and lower relative humidity (RHU); and the low-value center of PET with a mean value of 831 mm/a is in the northeast primarily attributed to higher RHU and weaker SSD. (2) Annual PET decreases at -10.04 mm decade-1 before the year 2000 but increases at 50.65 mm decade-1 thereafter; and the dominant factors of PET change are SSD, RHU and wind speed (WIN), with the relative contributions of 33.29%, 25.42% and 22.16%, respectively. (3) The abrupt change of PET in 2000 is strongly dominated by large-scale climatic anomalies. The strengthened 850hPa geostrophic wind (0.51 ms-1 decade-1), weakened total cloud cover (-2.25 % decade-1) and 500hPa water vapor flux (-2.85 % decade-1) have provided advantageous dynamic, thermal and dry conditions for PET over Southwest China since the 21st century.

  19. The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, James A.

    1988-01-01

    A theoretical model for evaluating human spatial habitability (HuSH) in the proposed U.S. Space Station is developed. Optimizing the fitness of the space station environment for human occupancy will help reduce environmental stress due to long-term isolation and confinement in its small habitable volume. The development of tools that operationalize the behavioral bases of spatial volume for visual kinesthetic, and social logic considerations is suggested. This report further calls for systematic scientific investigations of how much real and how much perceived volume people need in order to function normally and with minimal stress in space-based settings. The theoretical model presented in this report can be applied to any size or shape interior, at any scale of consideration, for the Space Station as a whole to an individual enclosure or work station. Using as a point of departure the Isovist model developed by Dr. Michael Benedikt of the U. of Texas, the report suggests that spatial habitability can become as amenable to careful assessment as engineering and life support concerns.

  20. Long-term perceptions of outdoor thermal environments in an elementary school in a hot-humid climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Wen-Mei; Lin, Tzu-Ping; Tan, Ning-Xin; Liu, Mu-Hsien

    2017-09-01

    Previous studies on thermal comfort in school environments have focused more on indoor thermal environments than outdoor ones, thus providing a limited understanding of occupants' long-term thermal perceptions. Taiwan is located in a subtropical region, where it can be stiflingly hot outside in summer. This highlights the need to ensure proper thermal comfort on campus. In the present study, thermal environment parameters were measured and collected in several outdoor spaces of an elementary school in southern Taiwan. In addition, a questionnaire was used to explore occupants' long-term thermal perceptions of these spaces. During summer months, the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) of these outdoor spaces in over 60% of the daytime in summer between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. was higher than 38 °C PET, indicating high heat stress. The results of occupants' long-term perceptions of the thermal comfort of these spaces suggested that dissatisfaction with thermal comfort was associated more with solar radiation than with wind speed. Finally, this study simulated a campus environment where more trees are planted and compared the thermal comfort indices before and after the simulation. The results indicated that this solution contributed to a decrease in the PET of these environments, thereby alleviating high heat stress. This study can inform the improvement of microclimates and thermal comfort during campus layout planning. Planting trees judiciously across a campus increases outdoor shades and creates outdoor spaces that are more comfortable and adaptable to hot weather conditions, thereby ensuring frequent use of these spaces.

  1. Future Flight Opportunities and Calibration Protocols for CERES: Continuation of Observations in Support of the Long-Term Earth Radiation Budget Climate Data Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priestley, Kory J.; Smith, George L.

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project is to provide a long-term record of radiation budget at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), within the atmosphere, and at the surface with consistent cloud and aerosol properties at climate accuracy. CERES consists of an integrated instrument-algorithm validation science team that provides development of higher-level products (Levels 1-3) and investigations. It involves a high level of data fusion, merging inputs from 25 unique input data sources to produce 18 CERES data products. Over 90% of the CERES data product volume involves two or more instruments. Continuation of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) Climate Data Record (CDR) has been identified as critical in the 2007 NRC Decadal Survey, the Global Climate Observing System WCRP report, and in an assessment titled Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals . Five CERES instruments have flown on three different spacecraft: TRMM, EOS-Terra and EOS-Aqua. In response, NASA, NOAA and NPOESS have agreed to fly the existing CERES Flight Model (FM-5) on the NPP spacecraft in 2011 and to procure an additional CERES Sensor with modest upgrades for flight on the JPSS C1 spacecraft in 2014, followed by a CERES follow-on sensor for flight in 2018. CERES is a scanning broadband radiometer that measures filtered radiance in the SW (0.3-5 m), total (TOT) (0.3-200 m) and WN (8-12 m) regions. Pre-launch calibration is performed on each Flight Model to meet accuracy requirements of 1% for SW and 0.5% for outgoing LW observations. Ground to flight or in-flight changes are monitored using protocols employing onboard and vicarious calibration sources. Studies of flight data show that SW response can change dramatically due to optical contamination. with greatest impact in blue-to UV radiance, where tungsten lamps are largely devoid of output. While science goals remain unchanged for ERB Climate Data Record, it is now understood

  2. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Hardekopf

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  3. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  4. Breaking car use habits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, John; Møller, Berit Thorup

    2008-01-01

    Based on calls for innovative ways of reducing car traffic and research indicating that car driving is often the result of habitual decision-making and choice processes, this paper reports on a field experiment designed to test a tool aimed to entice drivers to skip the habitual choice of the car...... and consider using-or at least trying-public transport instead. About 1,000 car drivers participated in the experiment either as experimental subjects, receiving a free one-month travelcard, or as control subjects. As predicted, the intervention had a significant impact on drivers' use of public transport...... and it also neutralized the impact of car driving habits on mode choice. However, in the longer run (i.e., four months after the experiment) experimental subjects did not use public transport more than control subjects. Hence, it seems that although many car drivers choose travel mode habitually, their final...

  5. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  6. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arizzi, Anna, E-mail: anna.arizzi@ouce.ox.ac.uk [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Viles, Heather [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Martín-Sanchez, Inés [Departamento de Microbiología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain); Cultrone, Giuseppe [Departamento de Mineralogía y Petrología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain)

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  7. Long-term effects of climate change on carbon storage and tree species composition in a dry deciduous forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fekete, István; Lajtha, Kate; Kotroczó, Zsolt; Várbíró, Gábor; Varga, Csaba; Tóth, János Attila; Demeter, Ibolya; Veperdi, Gábor; Berki, Imre

    2017-08-01

    Forest vegetation and soils have been suggested as potentially important sinks for carbon (C) with appropriate management and thus are implicated as effective tools in stabilizing climate even with increasing anthropogenic release of CO 2 . Drought, however, which is often predicted to increase in models of future climate change, may limit net primary productio (NPP) of dry forest types, with unknown effects on soil C storage. We studied C dynamics of a deciduous temperate forest of Hungary that has been subject to significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature in recent decades. We resampled plots that were established in 1972 and repeated the full C inventory by analyzing more than 4 decades of data on the number of living trees, biomass of trees and shrubs, and soil C content. Our analyses show that the decline in number and biomass of oaks started around the end of the 1970s with a 71% reduction in the number of sessile oak stems by 2014. Projected growth in this forest, based on the yield table's data for Hungary, was 4.6 kg C/m 2 . Although new species emerged, this new growth and small increases in oak biomass resulted in only 1.9 kg C/m 2 increase over 41 years. The death of oaks increased inputs of coarse woody debris to the surface of the soil, much of which is still identifiable, and caused an increase of 15.5%, or 2.6 kg C/m 2 , in the top 1 m of soil. Stability of this fresh organic matter input to surface soil is unknown, but is likely to be low based on the results of a colocated woody litter decomposition study. The effects of a warmer and drier climate on the C balance of forests in this region will be felt for decades to come as woody litter inputs decay, and forest growth remains impeded. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Long-term youth criminal outcomes in MST transport: the impact of therapist adherence and organizational climate and structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenwald, Sonja K; Chapman, Jason E; Sheidow, Ashli J; Carter, Rickey E

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated relations among therapist adherence to an evidence-based treatment for youth with serious antisocial behavior (i.e., Multisystemic Therapy), organizational climate and structure, and youth criminal charges on average 4 years posttreatment. Participants were 1,979 youth and families treated by 429 therapists across 45 provider organizations. Results showed therapist adherence predicted significantly lower rates of youth criminal charges independently and in the presence of organizational variables. Therapist perceptions of job satisfaction and opportunities for growth and advancement relative to the organizational average predicted youth criminal charges, as did organizational average levels of participation in decision making. These associations washed out in the presence of adherence, despite the fact that job satisfaction and growth and advancement were associated with adherence.

  9. Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Pohlman, John W.; Kunz, Michael L.; Wooller, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets (14C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

  10. Habits in perioperative nursing culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindwall, Lillemor; von Post, Iréne

    2008-09-01

    This study focuses on investigating habits in perioperative nursing culture, which are often simply accepted and not normally considered or discussed. A hermeneutical approach was chosen as the means of understanding perioperative nurses' experiences of and reflections on operating theatre culture. Focus group discussions were used to collect data, which was analysed using hermeneutical text analysis. The results revealed three main categories of habits present in perioperative nursing culture: habits that promote ethical values (by temporary friendship with patients, showing respect for each other, and spending time on reflection on ethics and caring); habits that hinder progress (by seeing the patient as a surgical case, not acknowledging colleagues, and not talking about ethics); and habits that set the cultural tone (the hidden power structure and achieving more in less time).

  11. Health Habit: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opalinski, Andra S; Weglicki, Linda S; Gropper, Sareen S

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this article is to provide clarity of the concept of health habit. Using Walker and Avant's (1983; 2010) method for conducting a concept analysis, the authors identify the attributes and characteristics of health habit, its theoretical and practical application to nursing, and sample cases to further illustrate the concept. Empirical and conceptual literature was used to inform this concept analysis. Articles and one book from 1977 to 2014 were reviewed from PsycINFO, Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing Health Literature (CINAHL), Science Direct, EBSCOhost and Web of Science. Offering a clear definition and conceptual model of health habit provide the foundation to identify/develop appropriate measures of the concept and guide further investigation of understanding the development and sustainability of healthy habits. Additional research is needed to test the conceptual relationships between health habits and outcome variables as they apply to different groups across the age continuum. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Legionella in habitations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krøjgaard, Louise Hjelmar

    . Other have shown that more permanent, long-term water treatments, such as copper-silver ionisation, addition of chlorine dioxide or monochloramine to the portable water can be effective against Legionella colonisation, though none of the methods completely eradicated Legionella in all treatet water...

  13. A Volcanic Hydrogen Habitable Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kaltenegger, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    The classical habitable zone (HZ) is the circular region around a star in which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. The outer edge of the traditional N_2–CO_2–H_2O HZ extends out to nearly ∼1.7 au in our solar system, beyond which condensation and scattering by CO_2 outstrips its greenhouse capacity. Here, we show that volcanic outgassing of atmospheric H_2 can extend the outer edge of the HZ to ∼2.4 au in our solar system. This wider volcanic-hydrogen HZ (N_2–CO_2–H_2O–H_2) can be sustained as long as volcanic H_2 output offsets its escape from the top of the atmosphere. We use a single-column radiative-convective climate model to compute the HZ limits of this volcanic hydrogen HZ for hydrogen concentrations between 1% and 50%, assuming diffusion-limited atmospheric escape. At a hydrogen concentration of 50%, the effective stellar flux required to support the outer edge decreases by ∼35%–60% for M–A stars. The corresponding orbital distances increase by ∼30%–60%. The inner edge of this HZ only moves out ∼0.1%–4% relative to the classical HZ because H_2 warming is reduced in dense H_2O atmospheres. The atmospheric scale heights of such volcanic H_2 atmospheres near the outer edge of the HZ also increase, facilitating remote detection of atmospheric signatures.

  14. A Volcanic Hydrogen Habitable Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kaltenegger, Lisa, E-mail: rmr277@cornell.edu [Carl Sagan Institute, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The classical habitable zone (HZ) is the circular region around a star in which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. The outer edge of the traditional N{sub 2}–CO{sub 2}–H{sub 2}O HZ extends out to nearly ∼1.7 au in our solar system, beyond which condensation and scattering by CO{sub 2} outstrips its greenhouse capacity. Here, we show that volcanic outgassing of atmospheric H{sub 2} can extend the outer edge of the HZ to ∼2.4 au in our solar system. This wider volcanic-hydrogen HZ (N{sub 2}–CO{sub 2}–H{sub 2}O–H{sub 2}) can be sustained as long as volcanic H{sub 2} output offsets its escape from the top of the atmosphere. We use a single-column radiative-convective climate model to compute the HZ limits of this volcanic hydrogen HZ for hydrogen concentrations between 1% and 50%, assuming diffusion-limited atmospheric escape. At a hydrogen concentration of 50%, the effective stellar flux required to support the outer edge decreases by ∼35%–60% for M–A stars. The corresponding orbital distances increase by ∼30%–60%. The inner edge of this HZ only moves out ∼0.1%–4% relative to the classical HZ because H{sub 2} warming is reduced in dense H{sub 2}O atmospheres. The atmospheric scale heights of such volcanic H{sub 2} atmospheres near the outer edge of the HZ also increase, facilitating remote detection of atmospheric signatures.

  15. Long-term rise of the Water Table in the Northeast US: Climate Variability, Land-Use Change, or Angry Beavers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutt, D. F.

    2011-12-01

    The scientific evidence that humans are directly influencing the Earth's natural climate is increasingly compelling. Numerous studies suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the seasonality of surface water availability thereby increasing the need for groundwater development to offset those shortages. Research suggests that the Northeast region of the U.S. is experiencing significant changes to its' natural climate and hydrologic systems. Previous analysis of a long-term regional compilation of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate variability in New England documented a wide range of variability. The investigation evaluated the physical mechanisms, natural variability and response of aquifers in New England using 100 long term groundwater monitoring stations with 20 or more years of data coupled with 67 stream gages, 75 precipitation stations, and 43 temperature stations. Groundwater trends were calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow anomalies to understand the sensitivity of the aquifer systems to change. Interestingly, a trend and regression analysis demonstrate that water level fluctuations are producing statistically significant results with increasing water levels over at least the past thirty years at most (80 out of 100) well sites. In this contribution we investigate the causal mechanisms behind the observed ground water level trends using site-by-site land-use change assessments, cluster analysis, and spatial analysis of beaver populations (a possible proxy for beaver activity). Regionally, average annual precipitation has been slightly increasing since 1900, with 95% of the stations having statistically significant positive trends. Despite this, no correlation is observed between the magnitude of the annual precipitation trends and the magnitude of the groundwater level changes. Land-use change throughout the region has primarily taken

  16. Earth's Paleomagnetosphere and Planetary Habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarduno, J. A.; Blackman, E. G.; Oda, H.; Bono, R. K.; Carroll-Nellenback, J.; Cottrell, R. D.; Nimmo, F.

    2017-12-01

    The geodynamo is thought to play an important role in protecting Earth's hydrosphere, vital for life as we know it, from loss due to the erosive potential of the solar wind. Here we consider the mechanisms and history of this shielding. A larger core dynamo magnetic field strength provides more pressure to abate the solar wind dynamic pressure, increasing the magnetopause radius. However, the larger magnetopause also implies a larger collecting area for solar wind flux during phases of magnetic reconnection. The important variable is not mass capture but energy transfer, which does not scale linearly with magnetosphere size. Moreover, the ordered field provides the magnetic topology for recapturing atmospheric components in the opposite hemisphere such that the net global loss might not be greatly affected. While a net protection role for magnetospheres is suggested, forcing by the solar wind will change with stellar age. Paleomagnetism utilizing the single silicate crystal approach, defines a relatively strong field some 3.45 billion years ago (the Paleoarchean), but with a reduced magnetopause of 5 Earth radii, implying the potential for some atmospheric loss. Terrestrial zircons from the Jack Hills (Western Australia) and other localities host magnetic inclusions, whose magnetization has now been recorded by a new generation of ultra-sensitive 3-component SQUID magnetometer (U. Rochester) and SQUID microscope (GSJ/AIST). Paleointensity data suggest the presence of a terrestrial dynamo and magnetic shielding for Eoarchean to Hadean times, at ages as old as 4.2 billion years ago. However, the magnetic data suggest that for intervals >100,000 years long, magnetopause standoff distances may have reached 3 to 4 Earth radii or less. The early inception of the geodynamo, which probably occurred shortly after the lunar-forming impact, its continuity, and an early robust hydrosphere, appear to be key ingredients for Earth's long-term habitability.

  17. Orbital Dynamics and Habitability of Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deitrick, Russell J.

    's Pleistocene ice ages. Mutual inclinations lead not only to larger variations in a planet's obliquity, but also uncover secular spin-orbit resonances, which lead to yet more dramatic behavior. I modeled the obliquity evolution of planets in this highly non-linear dynamical regime. Connecting the dynamical models to an simple climate model with ice sheets, I modeled the effects of such dynamical evolution on an Earth-like planet's climate. As expected, such "exo-Milankovitch cycles" can be rapid and dramatic, often leading to complete collapse into a snowball state. By demonstrating a handful of the many ways dynamics can influence habitability, this research provides context to observations of exoplanets and connects to one of the key goals of astrobiology, to "Determine the potential for habitable planets beyond the Solar System, and characterize those that are observable" (Des Marais et al., 2008). It provides tools and techniques that may be used to help prioritize exoplanet targets for characterization missions when very little information is known other than orbital properties. It also demonstrates how orbital evolution affects observable quantities like albedo, and will assist in the interpretation of spectra.

  18. Long-Term Arctic Peatland Dynamics, Vegetation and Climate History of the Pur-Taz Region, Western Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peteet, Dorothy; Andreev, Andrei; Bardeen, William; Mistretta, Francesca

    1998-01-01

    Stratigraphic analyses of peat composition, LOI, pollen, spores, macrofossils, charcoal, and AMS ages are used to reconstruct the peatland, vegetation and climatic dynamics in the Pur-Taz region of western Siberia over 5000 years (9300 - 4500 BP). Section stratigraphy shows many changes from shallow lake sediment to different combinations of forested or open sedge, moss, and Equisetum fen and peatland environments. Macrofossil and pollen data indicate that Larix sibirica and Betula pubescens trees were first to arrive, followed by Picea obovata. The dominance of Picea macrofossils 6000-5000 BP in the Pur-Taz peatland along with regional Picea pollen maxima indicate warmer conditions and movement of the spruce treeline northward at this time. The decline of pollen and macrofossils from all of these tree species in uppermost peats suggests a change in the environment less favorable for their growth, perhaps cooler temperatures and/or less moisture. Of major significance is the evidence for old ages of the uppermost peats in this area of Siberia, suggesting a real lack of peat accumulation in recent millennia or recent oxidation of uppermost peat.

  19. Long-term paradoxical aftermath of the Early Permian climatic warming in the Northern Hemisphere: biotic and abiotic aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossovaya, Olga

    2014-05-01

    Far distant influence of the climatic changes is rather variable and sometimes paradoxical. One of the examples is the flourish of the Photozoan association in the Northern Hemisphere during time of Southern Hemisphere glaciation (P2) and it following collapse in the interglacial phase. Modelling of the possible extrinsic factors using isotope data from the Urals has demonstrated the complex succession of abiotic changes including circulation changes and penetration of cold water from Northern Panthalassa. The invasion of cold water into the Uralian Basin led to disarray of the coastal circulation and rising of cold water via upwelling. It was resulted by change of biota and wide distribution of the heterozoan biota. The replacement took place both in carbonate ramp and reef facies. The depletion of δ18O during the early Artinskian was demonstrated by analyses of the biogenic carbonates from Belaya Gora (Most) section. This coincides with the previously known trend for d18O shown for low latitudes from the Sakmarian to early Artinskian with a minimum during the middle Artinskian and is in accordance with recent data from the South Urals. The heterochrony of the impact in the far-distant and discrete photozoan assemblages depends on their bathymetric and paleo-latitudinal position.

  20. Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gröger, Joachim; Rumohr, Heye

    2006-05-01

    Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m - 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.

  1. Long-term responses of rainforest erosional systems at different spatial scales to selective logging and climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, R. P. D.; Bidin, K.; Blake, W. H.; Chappell, N. A.; Clarke, M. A.; Douglas, I.; Ghazali, R.; Sayer, A. M.; Suhaimi, J.; Tych, W.; Annammala, K. V.

    2011-01-01

    Long-term (21–30 years) erosional responses of rainforest terrain in the Upper Segama catchment, Sabah, to selective logging are assessed at slope, small and large catchment scales. In the 0.44 km2 Baru catchment, slope erosion measurements over 1990–2010 and sediment fingerprinting indicate that sediment sources 21 years after logging in 1989 are mainly road-linked, including fresh landslips and gullying of scars and toe deposits of 1994–1996 landslides. Analysis and modelling of 5–15 min stream-suspended sediment and discharge data demonstrate a reduction in storm-sediment response between 1996 and 2009, but not yet to pre-logging levels. An unmixing model using bed-sediment geochemical data indicates that 49 per cent of the 216 t km−2 a−1 2009 sediment yield comes from 10 per cent of its area affected by road-linked landslides. Fallout 210Pb and 137Cs values from a lateral bench core indicate that sedimentation rates in the 721 km2 Upper Segama catchment less than doubled with initially highly selective, low-slope logging in the 1980s, but rose 7–13 times when steep terrain was logged in 1992–1993 and 1999–2000. The need to keep steeplands under forest is emphasized if landsliding associated with current and predicted rises in extreme rainstorm magnitude-frequency is to be reduced in scale. PMID:22006973

  2. Understanding moral habitability: a framework to enhance the quality of the clinical environment as a workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderheide, Rebecca; Moss, Cheryle; Lee, Susan

    2013-08-01

    There is compelling evidence in the nursing literature that the workplace is experienced as morally uninhabitable for many nurses and yet the concept of moral habitability remains underdeveloped. An integrative review on moral habitability in nursing was undertaken. The findings reveal that the primary concepts by which nurses write and research aspects of moral habitability are moral climate, moral agency, moral sensitivity and moral distress. It is revealed that nurses in their clinical work experience adversity and moral distress through relational challenges and contextual difficulties that can challenge habitability and inhibit nurses' capacity to provide morally sensitive patient care. The primary concepts identified provide a framework for further development of the concept of moral habitability within nursing practice. The related data within the integrative review also highlights the need for further research into enhancing and sustaining morally habitable workplaces for nurses.

  3. Vehicle Net Habitable Volume (NHV) and Habitability Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The purpose of this study is to assess habitability on the International Space Station (ISS) in order to better prepare for long-duration spaceflight missions of the...

  4. Direct and semi-direct effects of aerosol climatologies on long-term climate simulations over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultze, Markus; Rockel, Burkhardt

    2017-08-01

    This study compares the direct and semi-direct aerosol effects of different annual cycles of tropospheric aerosol loads for Europe from 1950 to 2009 using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is laterally forced by reanalysis data and run using prescribed, climatological aerosol optical properties. These properties differ with respect to the analysis strategy and the time window, and are then used for the same multi-decadal period. Five simulations with different aerosol loads and one control simulation without any tropospheric aerosols are integrated and compared. Two common limitations of our simulation strategy, to fully assess direct and semi-direct aerosol effects, are the applied observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions, and the lack of short-term variations in the aerosol load. Nevertheless, the impact of different aerosol climatologies on common regional climate model simulations can be assessed. The results of all aerosol-including simulations show a distinct reduction in solar irradiance at the surface compared with that in the control simulation. This reduction is strongest in the summer season and is balanced primarily by a weakening of turbulent heat fluxes and to a lesser extent by a decrease in longwave emissions. Consequently, the seasonal mean surface cooling is modest. The temperature profile responses are characterized by a shallow near-surface cooling and a dominant warming up to the mid-troposphere caused by aerosol absorption. The resulting stabilization of stratification leads to reduced cloud cover and less precipitation. A decrease in cloud water and ice content over Central Europe in summer possibly reinforce aerosol absorption and thus strengthen the vertical warming. The resulting radiative forcings are positive. The robustness of the results was demonstrated by performing a simulation with very strong aerosol forcing, which lead to qualitatively similar results. A distinct added value over the default aerosol

  5. Phenology of species interactions in response to climate change: two case studies of plant-pollinator interactions using long-term data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, A. M.; Inouye, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change may alter the temporal overlap among interacting taxa with potential demographic consequences. Evidence of mistimed interactions in response to climate change, especially between plants and pollinators, is mixed, and few long-term datasets exist to test for changes in synchrony. Furthermore, advancements in flowering driven by climate change are especially pronounced at higher latitudes, so that migratory pollinators from lower latitudes may increasingly arrive at breeding grounds after the appearance of floral resources. We explored long-term shifts in phenological synchrony in two plant-pollinator systems:1) syrphid fly and flowering phenology in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA (1992-2011) and 2) hummingbird arrival relative to onset of early-season nectar resources in the Colorado Rocky Mountains (1975-2011) and the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, USA (1984-2010). We investigated the abiotic cues associated with the phenology of the activity period of syrphid flies and their floral resources, including degree days above freezing, precipitation, and timing of snowmelt as potential explanatory variables. Timing of snowmelt was the best predictor of the onset of flowering and syrphid emergence. Snowmelt was also the best predictor of the end of flowering, while temperature and precipitation best predicted the end of the syrphid period. Both the onset and end of flowering advanced more rapidly than syrphids in response to earlier snowmelt. These different rates of phenological advancement resulted in increased temporal overlap between the flower and syrphid community in years of early snowmelt, because of longer flowering and fly activity periods during these years. If snowmelt continues to advance, temporal overlap between syrphids and their floral resources is therefore likely to increase. This case study shows that the phenology of interacting taxa may respond differently to climate cues, but that this does not necessarily lead to phenological

  6. Long-Term Climate Change Assessment Task for the Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program: Status through FY 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.L.; Chatters, J.C.

    1993-07-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program (Barrier Development Program) was organized (Adams and Wing 1986) to develop the technology needed to provide an in-place disposal capability for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington. The goals of the Barrier Development Program are to provide defensible evidence that final barrier design(s) will adequately control water infiltration, plant and animal intrusion, and wind and water erosion for a minimum of 1,000 years; to isolate wastes from the accessible environment; and to use markers to warn inadvertent human intruders. Evidence for barrier performance will be obtained by conducting laboratory experiments, field tests, computer modeling, and other studies that establish confidence in the barrier's ability to meet its 1,000-year design life. The performance and stability of natural barrier analogs that have existed for several millennia and the reconstruction of climate changes during the past 10,000 to 125,000 years also will provide insight into bounding conditions of possible future changes and increase confidence in the barriers design. In the following discussion the term open-quotes long-termclose quotes references periods of time up to 1000's of years, distinguishing it from open-quotes short-termclose quotes weather patterns covering a decade or less. Specific activities focus on planning and conducting a series of studies and tests required to confirm key aspects of the barrier design. The effort is a collaborative one between scientists and engineers from Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford) and Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to design barriers to limit movement of radionuclides and other contaminants to the accessible environment for at least 1,000 years. These activities have been divided into 14 groups of tasks that aid in the complete development of protective barrier and warning marker system

  7. Long-Term Climate Change Assessment Task for the Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program: Status through FY 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petersen, K.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (US); Chatters, J.C. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (US)

    1993-07-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program (Barrier Development Program) was organized (Adams and Wing 1986) to develop the technology needed to provide an in-place disposal capability for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington. The goals of the Barrier Development Program are to provide defensible evidence that final barrier design(s) will adequately control water infiltration, plant and animal intrusion, and wind and water erosion for a minimum of 1,000 years; to isolate wastes from the accessible environment; and to use markers to warn inadvertent human intruders. Evidence for barrier performance will be obtained by conducting laboratory experiments, field tests, computer modeling, and other studies that establish confidence in the barrier`s ability to meet its 1,000-year design life. The performance and stability of natural barrier analogs that have existed for several millennia and the reconstruction of climate changes during the past 10,000 to 125,000 years also will provide insight into bounding conditions of possible future changes and increase confidence in the barriers design. In the following discussion the term {open_quotes}long-term{close_quotes} references periods of time up to 1000`s of years, distinguishing it from {open_quotes}short-term{close_quotes} weather patterns covering a decade or less. Specific activities focus on planning and conducting a series of studies and tests required to confirm key aspects of the barrier design. The effort is a collaborative one between scientists and engineers from Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford) and Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to design barriers to limit movement of radionuclides and other contaminants to the accessible environment for at least 1,000 years. These activities have been divided into 14 groups of tasks that aid in the complete development of protective barrier and warning marker system.

  8. Long-term genetic monitoring of a riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae]: Direct anthropogenic impact versus climate change effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, Rebecca; Hadrys, Heike

    2017-01-01

    Modern conservationists call for long term genetic monitoring datasets to evaluate and understand the impact of human activities on natural ecosystems and species on a global but also local scale. However, long-term monitoring datasets are still rare but in high demand to correctly identify, evaluate and respond to environmental changes. In the presented study, a population of the riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae), was monitored over a time period from 1989 to 2013. Study site was an artificial irrigation ditch in one of the last European stone steppes and "nature heritage", the Crau in Southern France. This artificial riverine habitat has an unusual high diversity of odonate species, prominent indicators for evaluating freshwater habitats. A clearing of the canal and destruction of the bank vegetation in 1996 was assumed to have great negative impact on the odonate larval and adult populations. Two mitochondrial markers (CO1 & ND1) and a panel of nuclear microsatellite loci were used to assess the genetic diversity. Over time they revealed a dramatic decline in diversity parameters between the years 2004 and 2007, however not between 1996 and 1997. From 2007 onwards the population shows a stabilizing trend but has not reached the amount of genetic variation found at the beginning of this survey. This decline cannot be referred to the clearing of the canal or any other direct anthropogenic impact. Instead, it is most likely that the populations' decay was due to by extreme weather conditions during the specific years. A severe drought was recorded for the summer months of these years, leading to reduced water levels in the canal causing also other water parameters to change, and therefore impacting temperature sensitive riverine habitat specialists like the O. coerulescens in a significant way. The data provide important insights into population genetic dynamics and metrics not always congruent with traditional monitoring data (e

  9. Assessing Habitability: Lessons from the Phoenix Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoker, Carol R.

    2013-01-01

    The Phoenix mission's key objective was to search for a habitable zone. The Phoenix lander carried a robotic arm with digging scoop to collect soil and icy material for analysis with an instrument payload that included volatile mineral and organic analysis(3) and soil ionic chemistry analysis (4). Results from Phoenix along with theoretical modeling and other previous mission results were used to evaluate the habitability of the landing site by considering four factors that characterize the environments ability to support life as we know it: the presence of liquid water, the presence of an energy source to support metabolism, the presence of nutrients containing the fundamental building blocks of life, and the absence of environmental conditions that are toxic to or preclude life. Phoenix observational evidence for the presence of liquid water (past or present) includes clean segregated ice, chemical etching of soil grains, calcite minerals in the soil and variable concentrations of soluble salts5. The maximum surface temperature measured was 260K so unfrozen water can form only in adsorbed films or saline brines but warmer climates occur cyclically on geologically short time scales due to variations in orbital parameters. During high obliquity periods, temperatures allowing metabolism extend nearly a meter into the subsurface. Phoenix discovered 1%w/w perchlorate salt in the soil, a chemical energy source utilized by a wide range of microbes. Nutrient sources including C, H, N, O, P and S compounds are supplied by known atmospheric sources or global dust. Environmental conditions are within growth tolerance for terrestrial microbes. Summer daytime temperatures are sufficient for metabolic activity, the pH is 7.8 and is well buffered and the projected water activity of a wet soil will allow growth. In summary, martian permafrost in the north polar region is a viable location for modern life. Stoker et al. presented a formalism for comparing the habitability of

  10. Long-term Observations of Ecohydrology, Climate, Energy Fluxes, and Eddy Covariance Error in a Large, Semiarid Floodplain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleverly, J. R.; Thibault, J. R.; Dahm, C. N.; Allred Coonrod, J. E.; Slusher, M.; Teet, S.; Schuetz, J.

    2008-12-01

    Some of the highest rates of water and energy fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere occur over large floodplains in arid and semiarid areas. Often located in high-pressure zones near 35 degrees latitude, abundant radiation and easily accessible groundwater contribute few limitations on growth and production in desert phreatophytes. Desert regions typically undergo cycles of drought and floods, and phreatophytic communities wax or wane in cover, density, and structure with cumulative species responses to timing and severity in these regional weather cycles. The Rio-ET Laboratory at the University of New Mexico has been collecting long-term data from a flux network of riparian monitoring stations, mounted on towers along the Middle Rio Grande. Ongoing measurements of energy, water and carbon dioxide fluxes, groundwater dynamics, meteorology, leaf area index, and community dynamics began at some locations in 1999. Recent reanalysis of the flux dataset was performed in which error correction procedures were compared to each and other and in relation to an irrigated crop under advection. Most riparian sites exhibited stable atmospheric stratification and an energy balance consistent with evaporative cooling. Evaporative cooling was more prominent in the late afternoon and evening, during wet conditions. Reduced latent heat fluxes were observed in a cottonwood forest following restoration and fire, but only in years when the forest floor was not re-vegetated by opportunistic annuals or target removal species. Water use by riparian phreatophytes was 1) non-responsive to drought during the monsoon season (non-native Russian olive and monospecific saltcedar communities), 2) responded negatively to monsoon-season drought (xeroriparian saltcedar and saltgrass mosaic community), or 3) responded positively to monsoon-season drought (cottonwood forests). Water salvage related to ecological restoration is dependent upon restoration strategy, emphasizing the

  11. Continental-scale assessment of long-term trends in wet deposition trajectories: Role of anthropogenic and hydro-climatic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J.; Gall, H. E.; Niyogi, D.; Rao, S.

    2012-12-01

    The global trend of increased urbanization, and associated increased intensity of energy and material consumption and waste emissions, has contributed to shifts in the trajectories of aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments. Here, we focus on continental-scale spatiotemporal patterns in two atmospheric constituents (nitrate and sulfate), whose global biogeochemical cycles have been dramatically altered by emissions from mobile and fixed sources in urbanized and industrialized regions. The observed patterns in wet deposition fluxes of nitrate and sulfate are controlled by (1) natural hydro-climatic forcing, and (2) anthropogenic forcing (emissions and regulatory control), both of which are characterized by stochasticity and non-stationarity. We examine long-term wet deposition records in the U.S., Europe, and East Asia to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural forcing factors jointly contributed to the shifting temporal patterns of wet deposition fluxes at continental scales. These data offer clear evidence for successful implementation of regulatory controls and widespread adoption of technologies contributed to improving water quality and mitigation of adverse ecological impacts. We developed a stochastic model to project the future trajectories of wet deposition fluxes in emerging countries with fast growing urban areas. The model generates ellipses within which projected wet deposition flux trajectories are inscribed, similar to the trends in observational data. The shape of the ellipses provides information regarding the relative dominance of anthropogenic (e.g., industrial and urban emissions) versus hydro-climatic drivers (e.g., rainfall patterns, aridity index). Our analysis facilitates projections of the trajectory shift as a result of urbanization and other land-use changes, climate change, and regulatory enforcement. We use these observed data and the model to project likely trajectories for rapidly developing countries (BRIC), with a

  12. Long-term vegetation, climate and ocean dynamics inferred from a 73,500 years old marine sediment core (GeoB2107-3) off southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Fang; Zonneveld, Karin A. F.; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Arz, Helge W.; Pätzold, Jürgen; Behling, Hermann

    2017-09-01

    Long-term changes in vegetation and climate of southern Brazil, as well as ocean dynamics of the adjacent South Atlantic, were studied by analyses of pollen, spores and organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) in marine sediment core GeoB2107-3 collected offshore southern Brazil covering the last 73.5 cal kyr BP. The pollen record indicates that grasslands were much more frequent in the landscapes of southern Brazil during the last glacial period if compared to the late Holocene, reflecting relatively colder and/or less humid climatic conditions. Patches of forest occurred in the lowlands and probably also on the exposed continental shelf that was mainly covered by salt marshes. Interestingly, drought-susceptible Araucaria trees were frequent in the highlands (with a similar abundance as during the late Holocene) until 65 cal kyr BP, but were rare during the following glacial period. Atlantic rainforest was present in the northern lowlands of southern Brazil during the recorded last glacial period, but was strongly reduced from 38.5 until 13.0 cal kyr BP. The reduction was probably controlled by colder and/or less humid climatic conditions. Atlantic rainforest expanded to the south since the Lateglacial period, while Araucaria forests advanced in the highlands only during the late Holocene. Dinocysts data indicate that the Brazil Current (BC) with its warm, salty and nutrient-poor waters influenced the study area throughout the investigated period. However, variations in the proportion of dinocyst taxa indicating an eutrophic environment reflect the input of nutrients transported mainly by the Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) and partly discharged by the Rio Itajaí (the major river closest to the core site). This was strongly related to changes in sea level. A stronger influence of the BCC with nutrient rich waters occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 and in particular during the late MIS 3 and MIS 2 under low sea level. Evidence of Nothofagus pollen

  13. Managing away bad habits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldroop, J; Butler, T

    2000-01-01

    We've all worked with highly competent people who are held back by a seemingly fatal personality flaw. One person takes on too much work; another sees the downside in every proposed change; a third pushes people out of the way. At best, people with these "bad habits" create their own glass ceilings, which limit their success and their contributions to the company. At worst, they destroy their own careers. Although the psychological flaws of such individuals run deep, their managers are not helpless. In this article, James Waldroop and Timothy Butler--both psychologists--examine the root causes of these flaws and suggest concrete tactics they have used to help people recognize and correct the following six behavior patterns: The hero, who always pushes himself--and subordinates--too hard to do too much for too long. The meritocrat, who believes that the best ideas can and will be determined objectively and ignores the politics inherent in most situations. The bulldozer, who runs roughshod over others in a quest for power. The pessimist, who always worries about what could go wrong. The rebel, who automatically fights against authority and convention. And the home run hitter, who tries to do too much too soon--he swings for the fences before he's learned to hit singles. Helping people break through their self-created glass ceilings is the ultimate win-win scenario: both the individual and the organization are rewarded. Using the tactics introduced in this article, managers can help their brilliantly flawed performers become spectacular achievers.

  14. Northern Fur Seal Food Habits

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains food habits samples, usually scats, collected opportunistically on northern fur seal rookeries and haulouts in Alaska from 1987 to present....

  15. Healthy Habits Can Lengthen Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2018 Print this issue Health Capsule Healthy Habits Can Lengthen Life Send us your comments Physical activity is one of five healthy lifestyle factors that can lower your risk for several diseases and lengthen ...

  16. Make peak flow a habit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asthma - make peak flow a habit; Reactive airway disease - peak flow; Bronchial asthma - peak flow ... 2014:chap 55. National Asthma Education and Prevention Program website. How to use a peak flow meter. ...

  17. [Habitability and life support systems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nefedov, Iu G; Adamovich, B A

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses various aspects of space vehicle habitability and life support systems. It describes variations in the chemical and microbial composition of an enclosed atmosphere during prolonged real and simulated flights. The paper gives a detailed description of life support systems and environmental investigations onboard the Mir station. It also outlines the development of space vehicle habitability and life support systems as related to future flights.

  18. CANDIDATE PLANETS IN THE HABITABLE ZONES OF KEPLER STARS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaidos, Eric

    2013-01-01

    A key goal of the Kepler mission is the discovery of Earth-size transiting planets in ''habitable zones'' where stellar irradiance maintains a temperate climate on an Earth-like planet. Robust estimates of planet radius and irradiance require accurate stellar parameters, but most Kepler systems are faint, making spectroscopy difficult and prioritization of targets desirable. The parameters of 2035 host stars were estimated by Bayesian analysis and the probabilities p HZ that 2738 candidate or confirmed planets orbit in the habitable zone were calculated. Dartmouth Stellar Evolution Program models were compared to photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog, priors for stellar mass, age, metallicity and distance, and planet transit duration. The analysis yielded probability density functions for calculating confidence intervals of planet radius and stellar irradiance, as well as p HZ . Sixty-two planets have p HZ > 0.5 and a most probable stellar irradiance within habitable zone limits. Fourteen of these have radii less than twice the Earth; the objects most resembling Earth in terms of radius and irradiance are KOIs 2626.01 and 3010.01, which orbit late K/M-type dwarf stars. The fraction of Kepler dwarf stars with Earth-size planets in the habitable zone (η ⊕ ) is 0.46, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.31-0.64. Parallaxes from the Gaia mission will reduce uncertainties by more than a factor of five and permit definitive assignments of transiting planets to the habitable zones of Kepler stars.

  19. The habitability of planets orbiting M-dwarf stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Aomawa L.; Ballard, Sarah; Johnson, John Asher

    2016-12-01

    The prospects for the habitability of M-dwarf planets have long been debated, due to key differences between the unique stellar and planetary environments around these low-mass stars, as compared to hotter, more luminous Sun-like stars. Over the past decade, significant progress has been made by both space- and ground-based observatories to measure the likelihood of small planets to orbit in the habitable zones of M-dwarf stars. We now know that most M dwarfs are hosts to closely-packed planetary systems characterized by a paucity of Jupiter-mass planets and the presence of multiple rocky planets, with roughly a third of these rocky M-dwarf planets orbiting within the habitable zone, where they have the potential to support liquid water on their surfaces. Theoretical studies have also quantified the effect on climate and habitability of the interaction between the spectral energy distribution of M-dwarf stars and the atmospheres and surfaces of their planets. These and other recent results fill in knowledge gaps that existed at the time of the previous overview papers published nearly a decade ago by Tarter et al. (2007) and Scalo et al. (2007). In this review we provide a comprehensive picture of the current knowledge of M-dwarf planet occurrence and habitability based on work done in this area over the past decade, and summarize future directions planned in this quickly evolving field.

  20. Gaian bottlenecks and planetary habitability maintained by evolving model biospheres: the ExoGaia model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Arwen E.; Wilkinson, David M.; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-06-01

    The search for habitable exoplanets inspires the question - how do habitable planets form? Planet habitability models traditionally focus on abiotic processes and neglect a biotic response to changing conditions on an inhabited planet. The Gaia hypothesis postulates that life influences the Earth's feedback mechanisms to form a self-regulating system, and hence that life can maintain habitable conditions on its host planet. If life has a strong influence, it will have a role in determining a planet's habitability over time. We present the ExoGaia model - a model of simple `planets' host to evolving microbial biospheres. Microbes interact with their host planet via consumption and excretion of atmospheric chemicals. Model planets orbit a `star' that provides incoming radiation, and atmospheric chemicals have either an albedo or a heat-trapping property. Planetary temperatures can therefore be altered by microbes via their metabolisms. We seed multiple model planets with life while their atmospheres are still forming and find that the microbial biospheres are, under suitable conditions, generally able to prevent the host planets from reaching inhospitable temperatures, as would happen on a lifeless planet. We find that the underlying geochemistry plays a strong role in determining long-term habitability prospects of a planet. We find five distinct classes of model planets, including clear examples of `Gaian bottlenecks' - a phenomenon whereby life either rapidly goes extinct leaving an inhospitable planet or survives indefinitely maintaining planetary habitability. These results suggest that life might play a crucial role in determining the long-term habitability of planets.

  1. Long-term effects of climate change on the hydrological system of a lowland area at the German North Sea coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graeff, Thomas; Baroni, Gabriele; Krause, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In particular for the winter season, global sea level rise is expected to be combined with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency. During summer, due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration with an increase of groundwater intrusion has been observed. It is expected that the salinization of the surface will rise under drier conditions by upward seeping groundwater. Coastal water resource management requires a better understanding and predictions of these dynamic systems. Therefore, a long-term monitoring programme has been established at the German North Sea coast, located at the estuary of the River Ems. The research area is dominated by a dense canal system that is regulated by pumping stations and tidal gates. Landuse of the area is mainly dairy farming with 30 % of the area below sea level. The underlying aquifer is confined and brackish, and it is connected to the surface water by geological faults of old paleo-channels. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. This study investigates the effects of climate change on water balance and salt transport by applying regional climate models (RCMs) based on the IPCC emission scenarios for the period until 2100 as drivers for a hydrological and solute transport model. To investigate the impact of different meteorological scenarios, the RCM results for the climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K. As changes in water level and salinity are expected to influence vegetation patterns (and water management aims to guaranty agricultural use) two alternative landuse scenarios are considered. The first scenario assumes that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration

  2. COMPARATIVE HABITABILITY OF TRANSITING EXOPLANETS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnes, Rory; Meadows, Victoria S.; Evans, Nicole, E-mail: rory@astro.washington.edu [Astronomy Department, University of Washington, Box 951580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Exoplanet habitability is traditionally assessed by comparing a planet’s semimajor axis to the location of its host star’s “habitable zone,” the shell around a star for which Earth-like planets can possess liquid surface water. The Kepler space telescope has discovered numerous planet candidates near the habitable zone, and many more are expected from missions such as K2, TESS, and PLATO. These candidates often require significant follow-up observations for validation, so prioritizing planets for habitability from transit data has become an important aspect of the search for life in the universe. We propose a method to compare transiting planets for their potential to support life based on transit data, stellar properties and previously reported limits on planetary emitted flux. For a planet in radiative equilibrium, the emitted flux increases with eccentricity, but decreases with albedo. As these parameters are often unconstrained, there is an “eccentricity-albedo degeneracy” for the habitability of transiting exoplanets. Our method mitigates this degeneracy, includes a penalty for large-radius planets, uses terrestrial mass–radius relationships, and, when available, constraints on eccentricity to compute a number we call the “habitability index for transiting exoplanets” that represents the relative probability that an exoplanet could support liquid surface water. We calculate it for Kepler objects of interest and find that planets that receive between 60% and 90% of the Earth’s incident radiation, assuming circular orbits, are most likely to be habitable. Finally, we make predictions for the upcoming TESS and James Webb Space Telescope missions.

  3. COMPARATIVE HABITABILITY OF TRANSITING EXOPLANETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, Rory; Meadows, Victoria S.; Evans, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    Exoplanet habitability is traditionally assessed by comparing a planet’s semimajor axis to the location of its host star’s “habitable zone,” the shell around a star for which Earth-like planets can possess liquid surface water. The Kepler space telescope has discovered numerous planet candidates near the habitable zone, and many more are expected from missions such as K2, TESS, and PLATO. These candidates often require significant follow-up observations for validation, so prioritizing planets for habitability from transit data has become an important aspect of the search for life in the universe. We propose a method to compare transiting planets for their potential to support life based on transit data, stellar properties and previously reported limits on planetary emitted flux. For a planet in radiative equilibrium, the emitted flux increases with eccentricity, but decreases with albedo. As these parameters are often unconstrained, there is an “eccentricity-albedo degeneracy” for the habitability of transiting exoplanets. Our method mitigates this degeneracy, includes a penalty for large-radius planets, uses terrestrial mass–radius relationships, and, when available, constraints on eccentricity to compute a number we call the “habitability index for transiting exoplanets” that represents the relative probability that an exoplanet could support liquid surface water. We calculate it for Kepler objects of interest and find that planets that receive between 60% and 90% of the Earth’s incident radiation, assuming circular orbits, are most likely to be habitable. Finally, we make predictions for the upcoming TESS and James Webb Space Telescope missions

  4. Habit formation, work ethics, and technological progress

    OpenAIRE

    Faria, João Ricardo; León-Ledesma, Miguel A.

    2002-01-01

    Work ethics affects labor supply. This idea is modeled assuming that work is habit forming. This paper introduces working habits in a neoclassical growth model and compares its outcomes with a model without habit formation. In addition, it analyzes the impact of different forms of technical progress. The findings are that i) labor supply in the habit formation case is higher than in the neoclassical case; ii) unlike in the neoclassical case, labor supply in the presence of habit formation wil...

  5. Habitable worlds with no signs of life

    OpenAIRE

    Cockell, Charles S.

    2014-01-01

    ‘Most habitable worlds in the cosmos will have no remotely detectable signs of life’ is proposed as a biological hypothesis to be tested in the study of exoplanets. Habitable planets could be discovered elsewhere in the Universe, yet there are many hypothetical scenarios whereby the search for life on them could yield negative results. Scenarios for habitable worlds with no remotely detectable signatures of life include: planets that are habitable, but have no biosphere (Uninhabited Habitable...

  6. Tidal locking of habitable exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Rory

    2017-12-01

    Potentially habitable planets can orbit close enough to their host star that the differential gravity across their diameters can produce an elongated shape. Frictional forces inside the planet prevent the bulges from aligning perfectly with the host star and result in torques that alter the planet's rotational angular momentum. Eventually the tidal torques fix the rotation rate at a specific frequency, a process called tidal locking. Tidally locked planets on circular orbits will rotate synchronously, but those on eccentric orbits will either librate or rotate super-synchronously. Although these features of tidal theory are well known, a systematic survey of the rotational evolution of potentially habitable exoplanets using classic equilibrium tide theories has not been undertaken. I calculate how habitable planets evolve under two commonly used models and find, for example, that one model predicts that the Earth's rotation rate would have synchronized after 4.5 Gyr if its initial rotation period was 3 days, it had no satellites, and it always maintained the modern Earth's tidal properties. Lower mass stellar hosts will induce stronger tidal effects on potentially habitable planets, and tidal locking is possible for most planets in the habitable zones of GKM dwarf stars. For fast-rotating planets, both models predict eccentricity growth and that circularization can only occur once the rotational frequency is similar to the orbital frequency. The orbits of potentially habitable planets of very late M dwarfs ([InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]) are very likely to be circularized within 1 Gyr, and hence, those planets will be synchronous rotators. Proxima b is almost assuredly tidally locked, but its orbit may not have circularized yet, so the planet could be rotating super-synchronously today. The evolution of the isolated and potentially habitable Kepler planet candidates is computed and about half could be tidally locked. Finally, projected TESS planets

  7. The Astrobiology Habitable Environments Database (AHED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafuente, B.; Stone, N.; Downs, R. T.; Blake, D. F.; Bristow, T.; Fonda, M.; Pires, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Astrobiology Habitable Environments Database (AHED) is a central, high quality, long-term searchable repository for archiving and collaborative sharing of astrobiologically relevant data, including, morphological, textural and contextural images, chemical, biochemical, isotopic, sequencing, and mineralogical information. The aim of AHED is to foster long-term innovative research by supporting integration and analysis of diverse datasets in order to: 1) help understand and interpret planetary geology; 2) identify and characterize habitable environments and pre-biotic/biotic processes; 3) interpret returned data from present and past missions; 4) provide a citable database of NASA-funded published and unpublished data (after an agreed-upon embargo period). AHED uses the online open-source software "The Open Data Repository's Data Publisher" (ODR - http://www.opendatarepository.org) [1], which provides a user-friendly interface that research teams or individual scientists can use to design, populate and manage their own database according to the characteristics of their data and the need to share data with collaborators or the broader scientific community. This platform can be also used as a laboratory notebook. The database will have the capability to import and export in a variety of standard formats. Advanced graphics will be implemented including 3D graphing, multi-axis graphs, error bars, and similar scientific data functions together with advanced online tools for data analysis (e. g. the statistical package, R). A permissions system will be put in place so that as data are being actively collected and interpreted, they will remain proprietary. A citation system will allow research data to be used and appropriately referenced by other researchers after the data are made public. This project is supported by the Science-Enabling Research Activity (SERA) and NASA NNX11AP82A, Mars Science Laboratory Investigations. [1] Nate et al. (2015) AGU, submitted.

  8. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  9. Impacts of fire and climate change on long-term nitrogen availability and forest productivity in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melissa S. Lucash; Robert M. Scheller; Alec M. Kretchun; Kenneth L. Clark; John. Hom

    2014-01-01

    Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study...

  10. Dissolved oxygen stratification and response to thermal structure and long-term climate change in a large and deep subtropical reservoir (Lake Qiandaohu, China).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yunlin; Wu, Zhixu; Liu, Mingliang; He, Jianbo; Shi, Kun; Zhou, Yongqiang; Wang, Mingzhu; Liu, Xiaohan

    2015-05-15

    From January 2010 to March 2014, detailed depth profiles of water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were collected at three sites in Lake Qiandaohu, a large, deep subtropical reservoir in China. Additionally, we assessed the changes in DO stratification over the past 61 years (1953-2013) based on our empirical models and long-term air temperature and transparency data. The DO concentration never fell below 2 mg/L, the critical value for anoxia, and the DO depth profiles were closely linked to the water temperature depth profiles. In the stable stratification period in summer and autumn, the significant increase in CDOM in the metalimnion explained the decrease in DO due to the oxygen consumed by CDOM. Well-developed oxygen stratification was detected at the three sites in spring, summer and autumn and was associated with thermal stratification. Oxycline depth was significantly negatively correlated with daily air temperature and thermocline thickness but significantly positively correlated with thermocline depth during the stratification weakness period (July-February). However, there were no significant correlations among these parameters during the stratification formation period (March-June). The increase of 1.67 °C in yearly average daily air temperature between 1980 and 2013 and the decrease of 0.78 m in Secchi disk depth caused a decrease of 1.65 m and 2.78 m in oxycline depth, respectively, facilitating oxygen stratification and decreasing water quality. Therefore, climate warming has had a substantial effect on water quality through changing the DO regime in Lake Qiandaohu. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wanyun; Xu, Xiaobin; Lin, Meiyun; Lin, Weili; Tarasick, David; Tang, Jie; Ma, Jianzhong; Zheng, Xiangdong

    2018-01-01

    Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l.) on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994-2013 has increased significantly by 0.2-0.3 ppbv yr-1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3), a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) can explain ˜ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1). AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why summertime ozone measured at WLG shows no significant trend

  12. Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genio, Anthony Del

    2013-01-01

    As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

  13. Intrinsic rewards, fruit and vegetable consumption, and habit strength: a three-wave study testing the associative-cybernetic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedemann, Amelie U; Gardner, Benjamin; Knoll, Nina; Burkert, Silke

    2014-03-01

    Habit formation is thought to lead to long-term maintenance of fruit and vegetable consumption. Habits develop through context-dependent repetition, but additional variables such as intrinsic reward of behaviour may influence habit strength. Drawing upon the Associative-Cybernetic Model, this exploratory study tested different pathways by which intrinsic reward may influence fruit and vegetable consumption habit strength. In a three-wave study of fruit and vegetable intake in adults (N = 127) from the general population, intrinsic reward, intention, and self-efficacy were assessed at baseline, fruit and vegetable consumption and intrinsic reward two weeks later, and habit strength another two weeks later. Direct, indirect, and moderation effects of intrinsic reward on habit strength were tested simultaneously in a moderated mediation model. Intrinsic reward had a positive indirect effect on habit strength through its influence on the frequency of fruit and vegetable consumption. Further, the relationship between fruit and vegetable consumption and habit was stronger where consumption was considered more intrinsically rewarding. Findings highlight the potential relevance of intrinsic reward to habit. We suggest that intrinsic rewards from behaviour may not only facilitate habit via behaviour frequency, but also reinforce the relationship between behavioural repetition and habit strength. © 2013 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  14. 7 Habits of Developmental Coaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darden, Gibson; Shimon, Jane

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe how coaches can apply principles of athlete growth and development to the learning and performance of motor skills. They present 7 habits that lead to well-rounded athletes who experience increased enjoyment, self-motivation, skill improvement, and ultimately more success on the playing field. (Contains 1…

  15. Smoking habits among atomic-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akiba, Suminori; Kimura, Masafumi

    1992-01-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation made a research through mailing, the smoking habits among the A-bomb survivors in 1978-79. Statistic analysis was made on the smoking habits and radiation doses. (J.P.N.)

  16. The rules of coherence and other habits

    OpenAIRE

    Solis, M. R. C.

    2003-01-01

    Physics and mathematics are difficult enough without the aditional burden of bad habits. In this article, we examine some helpful habits that tend to be underemphasized by many physics teachers (mainly because they seem so obvious!).

  17. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  18. Introducing short term flexibility in the EU ETS to assure its long-term credibility: a multi-criteria analysis of policy options. Climate Report no. 45

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desai, Zuheir; Alberola, Emilie; Berghmans, Nicolas

    2014-07-01

    It is now well established that the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) needs to be reformed. After more than 18 months of discussions, the EU Commission disclosed, in its communication published in January 2014 on 'A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030', its legislative proposal of a market stability reserve (MSR) in the EU ETS. This measure, that should be implemented from the next compliance period (2021-2028) onwards, would reduce the surplus of allowances growing since 2008 and improve the ETS's resilience to external shocks by automatically adjusting the supply of allowances to be auctioned. The operation of this MSR would be determined by predefined rules that, once agreed on, leave no discretion to either the Commission or Member States. The choice of the EU Commission to introduce a reserve in the EU ETS is very innovative even if other emissions trading schemes have already introduced a reserve in their design. Initial discussions began in March and April 2014 in the European Parliament and Council and the question of whether the MSR really improves the functioning of the EU ETS in the long term is still being debated. What other structural mechanism would be better suited in improving the long-term effectiveness of the EU ETS? To help in the decision making process, this report presents a multi-criteria analysis. Without prejudging their political support, five policy options have been evaluated that would introduce some flexibility in the EU ETS and potentially ensure its long-term credibility: an auction reserve price, permit supply rules that target a certain corridor of surplus (market stability reserve), permit supply rules that target economic activity, permit supply rules that target overlap with other energy policies and a rolling emissions cap. The assessment of these five policy options was based on a criteria tree and on the EU ETS experts' panel's votes that expressed

  19. Oral Habits That Cause Malocclusion Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Joelijanto, Rudy

    2012-01-01

    Oral habits that place pressure on the teeth may slowly move the teeth out of place. The aim of this study was to review the literature for articles referring the most common oral habits that cause malocclusion. The oral bad habits that cause malocclussion problems include: Thumb sucking, It is a normal habit for babies, but causes serious orthodontic problems if it continues long after the eruption of permanent teeth. Prolonged thumb sucking can create crowded, crooked teeth, or bite problem...

  20. Habitable periglacial landscapes in martian mid-latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, M.; Wagner, D.; Hauber, E.; de Vera, J.-P.; Schirrmeister, L.

    2012-05-01

    Subsurface permafrost environments on Mars are considered to be zones where extant life could have survived. For the identification of possible habitats it is important to understand periglacial landscape evolution and related subsurface and environmental conditions. Many landforms that are interpreted to be related to ground ice are located in the martian mid-latitudinal belts. This paper summarizes the insights gained from studies of terrestrial analogs to permafrost landforms on Mars. The potential habitability of martian mid-latitude periglacial landscapes is exemplarily deduced for one such landscape, that of Utopia Planitia, by a review and discussion of environmental conditions influencing periglacial landscape evolution. Based on recent calculations of the astronomical forcing of climate changes, specific climate periods are identified within the last 10 Ma when thaw processes and liquid water were probably important for the development of permafrost geomorphology. No periods could be identified within the last 4 Ma which met the suggested threshold criteria for liquid water and habitable conditions. Implications of past and present environmental conditions such as temperature variations, ground-ice conditions, and liquid water activity are discussed with respect to the potential survival of highly-specialized microorganisms known from terrestrial permafrost. We conclude that possible habitable subsurface niches might have been developed in close relation to specific permafrost landform morphology on Mars. These would have probably been dominated by lithoautotrophic microorganisms (i.e. methanogenic archaea).

  1. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staudt, C.; Semiochkina, N.; Kaiser, J.C.; Pröhl, G.

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. - Highlights: ► We model Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors for a representative group exposed to radionuclides from a waste repository. ► The BDCF are modeled for different soil types. ► One model is used for the assessment of the influence of climate change during the disposal time frame.

  2. Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

  3. Habits, aspirations and endogenous fertility

    OpenAIRE

    Luciano Fanti

    2012-01-01

    Motivated by the increasing literature on endogenous preferences as well as on endogenous fertility, this paper investigates the implications of the interaction of the endogenous determination of the number of children with habit and aspiration formation in an OLG model. In contrast with the previous literature, we show that greater aspirations may lead to higher savings, and more interestingly, always increase the neoclassical economic growth.

  4. Drug Advertising and Health Habit

    OpenAIRE

    Toshiaki Iizuka; Ginger Zhe Jin

    2005-01-01

    We examine the effect of direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) of drug treatment on an important health habit, physical exercise. By learning the existence of a new drug treatment via DTCA, rational consumers may become careless about maintaining healthy lifestyles. Using the National Health Insurance Survey (NHIS) and MSA-level DTCA data, we find that the DTCA related to four chronic conditions -- diabetes, high cholesterol, over weight, and hypertension -- reduce the likelihood of engaging ...

  5. Widen the belt of habitability!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möhlmann, D

    2012-06-01

    Among the key-parameters to characterize habitability are presence or availability of liquid water, an appropriate temperature range, and the time scale of reference. These criteria for habitability are discussed and described from the point of view of water- and ice-physics, and it is shown that liquid water may exist in the sub-surfaces of planetary bodies like Mars, and possibly of inner asteroids and internally heated ice-moons. Water can remain fluid there also at temperatures far below the "canonical" 0 °C. This behaviour is made possible as a consequence of the freezing point depression due to salty solutes in water or "brines", as they can be expected to exist in nature more frequently than pure liquid water. On the other hand, low temperatures cause a slowing down of chemical processes, as can be described by Arrhenius's relation. The resulting smaller reaction rates probably will have the consequence to complicate the detection of low-temperature life processes, if they exist. Furthermore, the adaptation potential of life is to be mentioned in this context as a yet partially unknown process. Resulting recommendations are given to improve the use of criteria to characterize habitable conditions.

  6. Strategies for the long-term climate policy. The results of the Cool project. Final report of the second phase of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP II) 1995-2001. Part 2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berk M; Hisschemoller M; Mol T; Hordijk L; Kok M; Metz B; NOP

    2002-01-01

    This report, Climate Change, a Permanent Concern, presents the results of research that was conducted in over 90 projects during the second phase of the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP-II, 1995-2001). The report is intended for policymakers, members of

  7. [Significance of bad habits in orthodontics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarján, Ildikó

    2002-08-01

    The author is concerned with the etiological role of bad habits in the development. Disturbances caused by pacifier habits, finger sucking, various forms of swallowing habits and their therapeutical possibilities are discussed. The role of mouth breathing, nail biting, bruxism and self-mutilation in development of anomalies and their therapy are also mentioned. The attention is called to the fact that dentists have responsibility and task to diagnose as early as can be the oral bad habits and that the adequate therapy in time in co-operation with other specialists helping the child get out of bad habits, preventing the development of severe anomaly.

  8. Contrasting responses to long-term climate change of carbon flows to benthic consumers in two different sized lakes in the Baltic area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belle, Simon; Freiberg, Rene; Poska, Anneli; Agasild, Helen; Alliksaar, Tiiu; Tõnno, Ilmar

    2018-05-01

    The study of lake sediments and archived biological remains is a promising approach to better understand the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems. Small lakes have been shown to be strongly sensitive to past climate change, but similar information is lacking for large lakes. By identifying responses to climate change of carbon flows through benthic food web in two different sized lakes, we aimed to understand how lake morphometry can mediate the effects of climate change. We reconstructed the dynamics of phytoplankton community composition and carbon resources sustaining chironomid biomass during the Holocene from the combined analysis of sedimentary pigment quantification and carbon stable isotopic composition of subfossil chironomid head capsules (δ13CHC) in a large lake in the Baltic area (Estonia). Our results showed that chironomid biomass in the large lake was mainly sustained by phytoplankton, with no significant relationship between δ13CHC values and temperature fluctuations. We suggest that lake morphometry (including distance of the sampling zone to the shoreline, and lake volume for primary producers) mediates the effects of climate change, making large lakes less sensitive to climate change. Complementary studies are needed to better understand differences in organic matter dynamics in different sized lakes and to characterize the response of the aquatic carbon cycle to past climate change.

  9. Detecting the long-term impacts from climate variability and increasing water consumption on runoff in the Krishna river basin (India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Bouwer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations in climate, land-use and water consumption can have profound effects on river runoff. There is an increasing demand to study these factors at the regional to river basin-scale since these effects will particularly affect water resources management at this level. This paper presents a method that can help to differentiate between the effects of man-made hydrological developments and climate variability (including both natural variability and anthropogenic climate change at the basin scale. We show and explain the relation between climate, water consumption and changes in runoff for the Krishna river basin in central India. River runoff variability due to observed climate variability and increased water consumption for irrigation and hydropower is simulated for the last 100 years (1901–2000 using the STREAM water balance model. Annual runoff under climate variability is shown to vary only by about 14–34 millimetres (6–15%. It appears that reservoir construction after 1960 and increasing water consumption has caused a persistent decrease in annual river runoff of up to approximately 123 mm (61%. Variation in runoff under climate variability only would have decreased over the period under study, but we estimate that increasing water consumption has caused runoff variability that is three times higher.

  10. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Long-term simulation of temporal change of soil organic carbon in Denmark: comparison of three model performances under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Öztürk, Isik; Sharif, Behzad; Santhome, Sanmohan

    2018-01-01

    The temporal change in soil organic carbon (SOC) was analysed over an 80-year period based on climate change predictions of four regional circulation models under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario in the 21st century. A 20-year (1991–2010) set of observed...... to the total variance of random variation was quantified. Statistical analysis showed that the crop-soil models are the main source for uncertainty in analysing soil C and N responses to climate change....

  12. INDICATION OF INSENSITIVITY OF PLANETARY WEATHERING BEHAVIOR AND HABITABLE ZONE TO SURFACE LAND FRACTION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbot, Dorian S.; Ciesla, Fred J.; Cowan, Nicolas B.

    2012-01-01

    It is likely that unambiguous habitable zone terrestrial planets of unknown water content will soon be discovered. Water content helps determine surface land fraction, which influences planetary weathering behavior. This is important because the silicate-weathering feedback determines the width of the habitable zone in space and time. Here a low-order model of weathering and climate, useful for gaining qualitative understanding, is developed to examine climate evolution for planets of various land-ocean fractions. It is pointed out that, if seafloor weathering does not depend directly on surface temperature, there can be no weathering-climate feedback on a waterworld. This would dramatically narrow the habitable zone of a waterworld. Results from our model indicate that weathering behavior does not depend strongly on land fraction for partially ocean-covered planets. This is powerful because it suggests that previous habitable zone theory is robust to changes in land fraction, as long as there is some land. Finally, a mechanism is proposed for a waterworld to prevent complete water loss during a moist greenhouse through rapid weathering of exposed continents. This process is named a 'waterworld self-arrest', and it implies that waterworlds can go through a moist greenhouse stage and end up as planets like Earth with partial ocean coverage. This work stresses the importance of surface and geologic effects, in addition to the usual incident stellar flux, for habitability.

  13. INDICATION OF INSENSITIVITY OF PLANETARY WEATHERING BEHAVIOR AND HABITABLE ZONE TO SURFACE LAND FRACTION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbot, Dorian S.; Ciesla, Fred J. [Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Cowan, Nicolas B., E-mail: abbot@uchicago.edu [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2131 Tech Drive, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States)

    2012-09-10

    It is likely that unambiguous habitable zone terrestrial planets of unknown water content will soon be discovered. Water content helps determine surface land fraction, which influences planetary weathering behavior. This is important because the silicate-weathering feedback determines the width of the habitable zone in space and time. Here a low-order model of weathering and climate, useful for gaining qualitative understanding, is developed to examine climate evolution for planets of various land-ocean fractions. It is pointed out that, if seafloor weathering does not depend directly on surface temperature, there can be no weathering-climate feedback on a waterworld. This would dramatically narrow the habitable zone of a waterworld. Results from our model indicate that weathering behavior does not depend strongly on land fraction for partially ocean-covered planets. This is powerful because it suggests that previous habitable zone theory is robust to changes in land fraction, as long as there is some land. Finally, a mechanism is proposed for a waterworld to prevent complete water loss during a moist greenhouse through rapid weathering of exposed continents. This process is named a 'waterworld self-arrest', and it implies that waterworlds can go through a moist greenhouse stage and end up as planets like Earth with partial ocean coverage. This work stresses the importance of surface and geologic effects, in addition to the usual incident stellar flux, for habitability.

  14. Planning to break unwanted habits: habit strength moderates implementation intention effects on behaviour change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Thomas L; Sheeran, Paschal; Luszczynska, Aleksandra

    2009-09-01

    Implementation intention formation promotes effective goal striving and goal attainment. However, little research has investigated whether implementation intentions promote behaviour change when people possess strong antagonistic habits. Experiment 1 developed relatively habitual responses that, after a task switch, had a detrimental impact on task performance. Forming an if-then plan reduced the negative impact of habit on performance. However, the effect of forming implementation intentions was smaller among participants who possessed strong habits as compared to participants who had weaker habits. Experiment 2 provided a field test of the role of habit strength in moderating the relationship between implementation intentions and behaviour in the context of smoking. Implementation intentions reduced smoking among participants with weak or moderate smoking habits, but not among participants with strong smoking habits. In summary, habit strength moderates the effectiveness of if-then plan formation in breaking unwanted habits.

  15. Financial attitudes, knowledge, and habits of chiropractic students: A descriptive survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorence, Julie; Lawrence, Dana J.; Salsbury, Stacie A.; Goertz, Christine M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Our purpose was to describe the financial knowledge, habits and attitudes of chiropractic students. Methods: We designed a cross-sectional survey to measure basic financial knowledge, current financial habits, risk tolerance, and beliefs about future income among 250 students enrolled in business courses at one US chiropractic college. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed. Results: We received 57 questionnaires (23% response rate). Most respondents would accumulate over $125,000 in student loan debt by graduation. Financial knowledge was low (mean 77%). Most respondents (72%) scored as average financial risk takers. Chiropractic students reported recommended short-term habits such as having checking accounts (90%) and health insurance (63%) or paying monthly bills (88%) and credit cards (60%). Few saved money for unplanned expenses (39%) or long-term goals (26%), kept written budgets (32%), or had retirement accounts (19%). Conclusion: These chiropractic students demonstrated inadequate financial literacy and did not engage in many recommended financial habits. PMID:24587498

  16. Nutritional habits of the inhabitants of the island of Vis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Missoni, Sasa

    2009-12-01

    The island of Vis belongs to middle Dalmatian group of islands with caracteristics Mediterranean climate. The assumption was that the dominant diet of the inhabitants is also Mediterranean. Such diet is considered to be one of the best for the prevention of many complex and chronic diseases, as confirmed by numerous studies in different parts of the World. This study showed a shift in dietary habits in the direction of a more globalized diet. Such sudden shift may prove to be an important trigger for the development of complex diseases such as diabetes melitus type 2, cardiovascular diseases, gout, as well as certain types of cancer.

  17. New inner boundaries of the habitable zones around M dwarfs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bin, Jiayu; Tian, Feng; Liu, Lei

    2018-06-01

    Two general circulation models CAM4 and CAM5 are used to study the climate of ocean planets around M dwarfs with different effective temperatures. The atmospheres in CAM5 simulations are warmer and contain more water vapor than those in CAM4 under identical model settings, a result likely caused by improved treatments of radiation and possibly clouds in CAM5. The inner boundary of the habitable zones of M dwarfs based on CAM5 simulations, expressed as a second order polynomial function, are farther away from the stars than what are suggested by previous works and the corresponding atmospheres are in the moist greenhouse state.

  18. Common garden comparison of the leaf-out phenology of woody species from different native climates, combined with herbarium records, forecasts long-term change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zohner, Constantin M; Renner, Susanne S

    2014-08-01

    A well-timed phenology is essential for plant growth and reproduction, but species-specific phenological strategies are still poorly understood. Here, we use a common garden approach to compare biannual leaf-out data for 495 woody species growing outdoors in Munich, 90% of them not native to that climate regime. For three species, data were augmented by herbarium dates for 140-year-long time series. We further meta-analysed 107 temperate-zone woody species in which leaf-out cues have been studied, half of them also monitored here. Southern climate-adapted species flushed significantly later than natives, and photoperiod- and chilling- sensitive species all flushed late. The herbarium method revealed the extent of species-specific climate tracking. Our results forecast that: (1) a northward expansion of southern species due to climate warming will increase the number of late flushers in the north, counteracting documented and expected flushing time advances; and (2) photoperiod- and chilling-sensitive woody species cannot rapidly track climate warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. The use of long-term observations in combination with modeling and their effect on the estimation of the North Sea storm surge climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aspelien, T.

    2006-07-01

    The aim of this PhD thesis is to design, implement and assess a method to combine long-term observations with multi-decadal model simulations. In this work a computationally cost-efficient nudging method, well suited for multi-decadal simulations, is chosen. First, the nudging method was tested for its sensitivity to different parameters. Then the long-term observations of sea level height from the UK tide gauge Aberdeen were combined with a multi-decadal hindcast for the North Sea. Compared to a control simulation, in which no observed values of sea level height were combined with the model, the nudging method generally improves the modeled water levels with respect to the observed values, especially for surge. The estimation of long-term fluctuations and biases of extreme values of high waters in the nudged simulation are generally considerably improved after nudging and closer to the observed. The effect is largest in the German Bight and at the West coast of Denmark. It is concluded that the cost-efficient nudging method, in which external processes, such as external surges, are additionally taken into account, provides a considerable improvement in reproducing long-term variations and trends, especially for surge. Without additional data from e.g. observed values from tide gauges taken into account, the meteorological induced long-term variations in a hindcast are not fully captured. (orig.)

  20. Nuclear power station main control room habitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paschal, W.B.; Knous, W.S.

    1989-01-01

    The main control room at a nuclear power station must remain habitable during a variety of plant conditions and postulated events. The control room habitability requirement and the function of the heating, ventilating, air-conditioning, and air treatment system are to control environmental factors, such as temperature, pressure, humidity, radiation, and toxic gas. Habitability requirements provide for the safety of personnel and enable operation of equipment required to function in the main control room. Habitability as an issue has been gaining prominence with the Advisor Committee of Reactor Safeguards and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission since the incident at Three Mile Island. Their concern is the ability of the presently installed habitability systems to control the main control room environment after an accident. This paper discusses main control room HVAC systems; the concern, requirements, and results of NRC surveys and notices; and an approach to control room habitability reviews

  1. Host Star Evolution for Planet Habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallet, Florian; Charbonnel, Corinne; Amard, Louis

    2016-11-01

    With about 2000 exoplanets discovered within a large range of different configurations of distance from the star, size, mass, and atmospheric conditions, the concept of habitability cannot rely only on the stellar effective temperature anymore. In addition to the natural evolution of habitability with the intrinsic stellar parameters, tidal, magnetic, and atmospheric interactions are believed to have strong impact on the relative position of the planets inside the so-called habitable zone. Moreover, the notion of habitability itself strongly depends on the definition we give to the term "habitable". The aim of this contribution is to provide a global and up-to-date overview of the work done during the last few years about the description and the modelling of the habitability, and to present the physical processes currently includes in this description.

  2. Dynamical habitability of planetary systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvorak, Rudolf; Pilat-Lohinger, Elke; Bois, Eric; Schwarz, Richard; Funk, Barbara; Beichman, Charles; Danchi, William; Eiroa, Carlos; Fridlund, Malcolm; Henning, Thomas; Herbst, Tom; Kaltenegger, Lisa; Lammer, Helmut; Léger, Alain; Liseau, René; Lunine, Jonathan; Paresce, Francesco; Penny, Alan; Quirrenbach, Andreas; Röttgering, Huub; Selsis, Frank; Schneider, Jean; Stam, Daphne; Tinetti, Giovanna; White, Glenn J

    2010-01-01

    The problem of the stability of planetary systems, a question that concerns only multiplanetary systems that host at least two planets, is discussed. The problem of mean motion resonances is addressed prior to discussion of the dynamical structure of the more than 350 known planets. The difference with regard to our own Solar System with eight planets on low eccentricity is evident in that 60% of the known extrasolar planets have orbits with eccentricity e > 0.2. We theoretically highlight the studies concerning possible terrestrial planets in systems with a Jupiter-like planet. We emphasize that an orbit of a particular nature only will keep a planet within the habitable zone around a host star with respect to the semimajor axis and its eccentricity. In addition, some results are given for individual systems (e.g., Gl777A) with regard to the stability of orbits within habitable zones. We also review what is known about the orbits of planets in double-star systems around only one component (e.g., gamma Cephei) and around both stars (e.g., eclipsing binaries).

  3. TIDAL LIMITS TO PLANETARY HABITABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, Rory; Jackson, Brian; Greenberg, Richard; Raymond, Sean N.

    2009-01-01

    The habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence stars have traditionally been defined as the range of orbits that intercept the appropriate amount of stellar flux to permit surface water on a planet. Terrestrial exoplanets discovered to orbit M stars in these zones, which are close-in due to decreased stellar luminosity, may also undergo significant tidal heating. Tidal heating may span a wide range for terrestrial exoplanets and may significantly affect conditions near the surface. For example, if heating rates on an exoplanet are near or greater than that on Io (where tides drive volcanism that resurfaces the planet at least every 1 Myr) and produce similar surface conditions, then the development of life seems unlikely. On the other hand, if the tidal heating rate is less than the minimum to initiate plate tectonics, then CO 2 may not be recycled through subduction, leading to a runaway greenhouse that sterilizes the planet. These two cases represent potential boundaries to habitability and are presented along with the range of the traditional HZ for main-sequence, low-mass stars. We propose a revised HZ that incorporates both stellar insolation and tidal heating. We apply these criteria to GJ 581 d and find that it is in the traditional HZ, but its tidal heating alone may be insufficient for plate tectonics.

  4. Accounting for wetlands loss in a changing climate in the estimation of long-term flood risks of Devils Lake, North Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulbin, S.; Kirilenko, A.; Zhang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Endorheic (terminal) lakes with no water outlets are sensitive indicators of changes in climate and land cover in the watershed. Regional variation in precipitation pattern in the US Northern Great Plaines lead to a long term flooding of Devils Lake (DL), ND, leading to a 10-m water level rise in just two decades, with estimated flood mitigation costs of over $1 billion. While the climate change contribution to flooding has been established, the role of large scale land conversion to agriculture has not been researched. Wetlands play a very important part in hydrological balance by storing, absorbing and slowing peak water discharge. In ND, 49 % of wetlands are drained and converted to agriculture. We investigated the role of wetlands loss in DL flooding in current and future climate. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow in all DL watershed subbasins. The model was calibrated using the 1991-2000 USGS gauge data for the first 10 years of study period and validated for the second 10 years (2001-2010), resulting in a satisfactory model performance compared against the measured water discharge in five streams in the watershed and against observed DL water level. A set of wetland loss scenarios were created based on the historical data and the Compound Topographic Index. To emulate the historical and future climate conditions, an ensemble of CMIP5 weather integrations based on IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios was downscaled with the MarkSim weather simulator. Model simulations indicate that the land use change in the DL watershed increased the impacts of climate change on hydrology by further elevating DL water level. Conversely, wetland restoration reduce the flooding and moderates risks of a potential high-impact DL overspill to the Sheyenne River watershed. Further research will concentrate on differentiation of climate change impacts under different types of land use change scenarios.

  5. Long-Term Trends and Temporal Synchrony in Plankton Richness, Diversity and Biomass Driven by Re-Oligotrophication and Climate across 17 Danish Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korhan Özkan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A two-decade (1989–2008 time series of lake phyto- and zooplankton, water characteristics and climate in 17 Danish lakes was analysed to examine the long term changes and the effects of lake restoration efforts. The analyses of the pair-wise correlations across time series revealed a strong synchrony in climatic variables among the lakes. A significant, but weak increase in air temperature was observed and resulted in a corresponding increase in surface water temperature only in summer. Lake physico-chemical variables had weaker synchrony than climatic variables. Synchrony in water temperature and stratification was stronger than lake chemistry as the former is mostly affected by atmospheric energy flux. Synchrony in the taxonomic richness of the plankton groups and phytoplankton biomass was apparent, to a similar degree as observed for lake chemistry. The synchrony and the temporal trends in lake chemistry and plankton were more pronounced for the lakes with strong re-oligotrophication. Phytoplankton biomass decreased and plankton richness increased in these lakes, with a shift from Chlorophyta dominance towards more heterogeneous phytoplankton communities. Notably, a widespread significant positive trend in plankton richness was observed not only in lakes with strong re-oligotrophication but across all lakes. The widespread increase in plankton richness coincided with widespread decrease in phosphate and total nitrogen concentrations, as well as with the trends in climate indicating a likely joint effect of nutrient reduction and climate in driving lake plankton. However, temporal changes and synchrony as well as the recovery of richness and composition of lake plankton more coherently corresponded with the nutrient loading reduction across the Danish landscape, while the role of climate control of the lake plankton was less pronounced.

  6. ISS Habitability Data Collection and Preliminary Findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaxton, Sherry (Principal Investigator); Greene, Maya; Schuh, Susan; Williams, Thomas; Archer, Ronald; Vasser, Katie

    2017-01-01

    Habitability is the relationship between an individual and their surroundings (i.e. the interplay of the person, machines, environment, and mission). The purpose of this study is to assess habitability and human factors on the ISS to better prepare for future long-duration space flights. Scheduled data collection sessions primarily require the use of iSHORT (iPad app) to capture near real-time habitability feedback and analyze vehicle layout and space utilization.

  7. Social determinants of dietary habits in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Margit Velsing; Fagt, Sisse; Brøndsted, L.

    2001-01-01

    significantly associated with the intake of fruit and vegetables. Conclusions: Education seems to be the most important social variable to explain social differences in dietary habits. Additional variables are needed to explain dietary habits of women. Differences are seen for both foods and nutrients....... Sponsorship: The data analysis was financially supported by the Health Insurance Fund. Descriptors: socioeconomic status; education; dietary habits; diet surveys, E%; fat, fruit and vegetables....

  8. Long-term climate: interpretation of the Vostok Antarctica drilling data, development of a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genthon, Christophe

    1988-01-01

    In a first part of the dissertation, data related to the evolution of the Earth climate and environment are analysed in order to elucidate some possible mechanisms of climatic transition on the time scale of the recent Pleistocene glacial to interglacial cycles. The Vostok (East Antarctica) temperature and the carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration (global) profiles, obtained on a time range of ∼160000 years from analysing a deep ice core drilled at Vostok are the basis of this study. A simple model for statistically reconstructing the temperature profile is implemented, the input functions of which are selected from hypotheses on the forcing of the climate at Vostok. These hypotheses are supported by the presence of the astronomical theory of paleo-climate's characteristic spectral bands in the two signals, by the high correlation between the variations of temperature with that of CO 2 , and by the fair coherence of these records with other paleo-climatic series from ocean sediment cores. An important contribution of the thermal greenhouse effect of CO 2 is suggested through this approach, in reasonable agreement with results obtained by other researchers using general circulation models. We also describe a dynamical model of the atmosphere which uses the zonally averaged primitive equations. This model is being developed as part of a project on modelling the globally coupled climatic System (atmosphere, ocean, cryo-sphere). For both the dynamical and diabatic physical parts, it is a reduction to two dimensions (latitude and altitude) of a general circulation atmospheric model. The large scale turbulence of the middle and high latitudes cannot be resolved with such a configuration: we describe parametrizations of the transports of sensible and latent heat by the baro-clinic eddies, and a preliminary study of the transport of momentum. These parametrizations make use of the mixing length theory, the mixing coefficients being determined from the local

  9. The habitable zone and extreme planetary orbits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Stephen R; Gelino, Dawn M

    2012-10-01

    The habitable zone for a given star describes the range of circumstellar distances from the star within which a planet could have liquid water on its surface, which depends upon the stellar properties. Here we describe the development of the habitable zone concept, its application to our own solar system, and its subsequent application to exoplanetary systems. We further apply this to planets in extreme eccentric orbits and show how they may still retain life-bearing properties depending upon the percentage of the total orbit which is spent within the habitable zone. Key Words: Extrasolar planets-Habitable zone-Astrobiology.

  10. Time-dependent effects of climate and drought on tree growth in a Neotropical dry forest: Short-term tolerance vs. long-term sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mendivelso, H.A.; Camarero, J.J.; Gutierrez, E.; Zuidema, P.

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed the effects of climate and drought on radial growth using dendrochronology in seven deciduous tree species coexisting in a Bolivian tropical dry forest subjected to seasonal drought. Precipitation, temperature and a multiscalar drought index were related to tree-ring width data at

  11. Disentangling the Long-term Effects of Climate Change and Forest Structure and Species Composition on Streamflow Across the Eastern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, P.; Elliott, K.; Hartsell, A.; Miniat, C.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change and disturbances are threatening the ability of forested watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Forested watersheds in the eastern US have undergone significant change over the 20th century due to natural and introduced disturbances and a legacy of land use. We hypothesize that changes in forest age and species composition (i.e., forest change) associated with these disturbances may have altered forest water use and thus streamflow (Q) due to inherent differences in transpiration among species and forest ages. To test this hypothesis, we quantified changes in Q from 1960 to 2012 in 202 US Geological Survey forested reference watersheds across the eastern US, and separated the effect of changes in climate from forest change using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series modeling. We linked changes in Q to forest disturbance, forest ages and species composition using the Landsat-based North American Forest Dynamics dataset and plot-level USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. We found that 172 of the 202 sites (85%) exhibited changes in Q not accounted for by climate that we attributed to forest change and/or land use change. Among these, 76 (44%) had declining Q due to forest change (mostly in the southeastern US) while 96 (56%) had increasing Q (mostly in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern US). Across the 172 sites with forest-related changes in Q, 34% had at least 10% of the watershed area disturbed at least once from 1986-2010. In a case study of three watersheds, FIA data indicated that changes in forest structure and species composition explained observed changes in Q beyond climate effects. Our results suggest that forest-related changes in Q may have significant implications for water supply in the region and may inform forest management strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on water resources.

  12. Synopsis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...

  13. Exoplanets Detection, Formation, Properties, Habitability

    CERN Document Server

    Mason, John W

    2008-01-01

    This edited, multi-author volume will be an invaluable introduction and reference to all key aspects in the field of exoplanet research. The reviews cover: Detection methods and properties of known exoplanets, Detection of extrasolar planets by gravitational microlensing. The formation and evolution of terrestrial planets in protoplanetary and debris disks. The brown dwarf-exoplanet connection. Formation, migration mechanisms and properties of hot Jupiters. Dynamics of multiple exoplanet systems. Doppler exoplanet surveys. Searching for exoplanets in the stellar graveyard. Formation and habitability of extra solar planets in multiple star systems. Exoplanet habitats and the possibilities for life. Moons of exoplanets: habitats for life. Contributing authors: •Rory Barnes •David P. Bennett •Jian Ge •Nader Haghighipour •Patrick Irwin •Hugh Jones •Victoria Meadows •Stanimir Metchev •I. Neill Reid •George Rieke •Caleb Scharf •Steinn Sigurdsson

  14. Disrupting the habit of interviewing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eileen Honan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to the growing domain of ‘post-qualitative’ research and experiments with a new (representational form to move away from traditional and clichéd descriptions of research methods. In this paper, I want to interrogate the category of interview, and the habit of interviewing, to disrupt the clichés, so as to allow thinking of different ways of writing/speaking/representing the interactions between researcher and researched that will breathe new life into qualitative inquiries. I will attempt to flatten and shred, destabilise and disrupt our common-sense ideas about interview, including those held most sacred to the qualitative community, that of anonymity and confidentiality, as well as the privilege of the ‘transcript’ in re-presenting interview data.

  15. Possible Habitability of Ocean Worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noack, Lena; Höning, Dennis; Bredehöft, Jan H.; Lammer, Helmut

    2014-05-01

    In the last decade, the number of detected exoplanets has increased to over thousand confirmed planets and more as yet unconfirmed planet candidates. The scientific community mainly concentrates on terrestrial planets (up to 10 Earth masses) in the habitable zone, which describes the distance from the host star where liquid water can exist at the surface (Kasting et al., 1993). Another target group of interest are ocean worlds, where a terrestrial-like body (i.e. with an iron core and a silicate mantle) is covered by a thick water-ice layer - similar to the icy moons of our solar system but with several Earth masses (e.g. Grasset et al., 2009). When an exoplanet is detected and confirmed as a planet, typically the radius and the mass of it are known, leading to the mean density of the planet that gives hints to possible interior structures. A planet with a large relative iron core and a thick ocean on top of the silicate mantle for example would have the same average planet density as a planet with a more Earth-like appearance (where the main contributor to the mass is the silicate mantle). In this study we investigate how the radius and mass of a planet depend on the amount of water, silicates and iron present (after Wagner et al., 2011) the occurence of high-pressure-ice in the water-ice layer (note: we only consider surface temperatures at which liquid water exists at the surface) if the ocean layer influences the initiation of plate tectonics We assume that ocean worlds with a liquid ocean layer (and without the occurence of high-pressure ice anywhere in the water layer) and plate tectonics (especially the occurence of subduction zones, hydrothermal vents and continental formation) may be called habitable (Class III/IV habitats after Lammer et al., 2009). References: Kasting, J.F., Whitmire, D.P., and Reynolds, R.T. (1993). Habitable Zones around Main Sequence Stars. Icarus 101, 108-128. Grasset, O., Schneider, J., and Sotin, C. (2009). A study of the accuracy

  16. Habitability Properties of Circumbinary Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevchenko, Ivan I.

    2017-06-01

    It is shown that several habitability conditions (in fact, at least seven such conditions) appear to be fulfilled automatically by circumbinary planets of main-sequence stars (CBP-MS), whereas on Earth, these conditions are fulfilled only by chance. Therefore, it looks natural that most of the production of replicating biopolymers in the Galaxy is concentrated on particular classes of CBP-MS, and life on Earth is an outlier, in this sense. In this scenario, Lathe’s mechanism for the tidal “chain reaction” abiogenesis on Earth is favored as generic for CBP-MS, due to photo-tidal synchronization inherent to them. Problems with this scenario are discussed in detail.

  17. Plate tectonics, habitability and life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spohn, Tilman; Breuer, Doris

    2016-04-01

    The role of plate tectonics in defining habitability of terrestrial planets is being increasingly discussed (e.g., Elkins-Tanton, 2015). Plate tectonics is a significantly evolved concept with a large variety of aspects. In the present context, cycling of material between near surface and mantle reservoirs is most important. But increased heat transport through mixing of cold lithosphere with the deep interior and formation of continental crust may also matter. An alternative mechanism of material cycling between these reservoirs is hot-spot volcanism combined with crust delamination. Hot-spot volcanism will transport volatiles to the atmosphere while delamination will mix crust, possibly altered by sedimentation and chemical reactions, with the mantle. The mechanism works as long as the stagnant lithosphere plate has not grown thicker than the crust and as long as volcanic material is added onto the crust. Thermal evolution studies suggest that the mechanism could work for the first 1-2 Ga of planetary evolution. The efficiency of the mechanism is limited by the ratio of extrusive to intrusive volcanism, which is thought to be less than 0.25. Plate tectonics would certainly have an advantage by working even for more evolved planets. A simple, most-used concept of habitability requires the thermodynamic stability of liquid water on the surface of a planet. Cycling of CO2between the atmosphere, oceans and interior through subduction and surface volcanism is an important element of the carbonate-silicate cycle, a thermostat feedback cycle that will keep the atmosphere from entering into a runaway greenhouse. Calculations for a model Earth lacking plate tectonics but degassing CO2, N, and H2O to form a surface ocean and a secondary atmosphere (Tosi et al, 2016) suggest that liquid water can be maintained on the surface for 4.5Ga. The model planet would then qualify as habitable. It is conceivable that the CO2 buffering capability of its ocean together with silicate

  18. The Feeding Habits of Mesosauridae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Rivaldo R.; Ferigolo, Jorge; Bajdek, Piotr; Piñeiro, Graciela

    2017-03-01

    Mesosauridae comprises the oldest known aquatic amniotes which lived in Gondwana during the Early Permian. Previous work in the Uruguayan mesosaur-bearing Mangrullo Formation suggested that mesosaurids lived in an inland water body, inferred as moderately hypersaline, with exceptional preservational conditions that justified describing these strata as a Fossil-Lagerstätte. Exquisitely preserved articulated mesosaur skeletons, including gastric content and associated coprolites, from the Brazilian Iratí Formation in the State of Goiás (central-western Brazil) indicate excellent conditions of preservation, extending the Konservat-Lagerstätte designation to both units in the Paraná Basin. The near-absence of more resistant fossil remains, like actinopterygian and temnospondyl bones, demonstrates the faunistic poverty of the mesosaur-bearing “salty sea”. Our studies of the alimentary habits of mesosaurids through the use of stereoscopic microscopy, light and electronic microscopy, and X-ray diffractometry suggest that the diet of mesosaurids was predominantly composed of pygocephalomorph crustaceans (possibly not exceeding 20 mm in length). However, the presence of bones and bone fragments of small mesosaurs in the gastric content, cololites, coprolites, and possible regurgitalites may also indicate cannibalistic and/or scavenging habits. Cannibalism is relatively common among vertebrates, particularly during conditions of environmental stress, like food shortage. Likewise, the apparent abundance of pygocephalomorph crustacean fossils in the Iratí and Mangrullo Formations, outside and within the studied gastric, cololite, and coprolite contents, might have to do with environmental stress possibly caused by volcanic activity, in particular ash spread into the basin during the Early Permian. In this context, casual necrophagy on the dead bodies of small mesosaurs and large pygocephalomorphs might have been an alternative alimentary behavior adopted for survival

  19. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  20. Inculcating reading habits among Nigerian secondary schools ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper looks at reading habit as process of imbibing a culture of educating, informing and enlightening people. Inculcating reading habit is very essential for the academic achievement of children and this is made possible with the help of trained and qualified teachers who help in guiding children in developing the right ...

  1. 24 CFR 203.673 - Habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Habitability. 203.673 Section 203.673 Housing and Urban Development Regulations Relating to Housing and Urban Development (Continued... FAMILY MORTGAGE INSURANCE Servicing Responsibilities Occupied Conveyance § 203.673 Habitability. (a) For...

  2. Bringing Exoplanet Habitability Investigations to High School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woody, Mary Anne; Sohl, Linda

    2016-01-01

    Habitability, a.k.a. habitat suitability, is a topic typically discussed in Biology class. We present here a curriculum unit that introduces the topic of global-scale planetary habitability in a Physics classroom, allowing students to emulate the process of doing cutting-edge science and re-framing an otherwise "typical" physics unit in a more engaging and interactive way.

  3. Tides and the evolution of planetary habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Rory; Raymond, Sean N; Jackson, Brian; Greenberg, Richard

    2008-06-01

    Tides raised on a planet by the gravity of its host star can reduce the planet's orbital semi-major axis and eccentricity. This effect is only relevant for planets orbiting very close to their host stars. The habitable zones of low-mass stars are also close in, and tides can alter the orbits of planets in these locations. We calculate the tidal evolution of hypothetical terrestrial planets around low-mass stars and show that tides can evolve planets past the inner edge of the habitable zone, sometimes in less than 1 billion years. This migration requires large eccentricities (>0.5) and low-mass stars ( less or similar to 0.35 M(circle)). Such migration may have important implications for the evolution of the atmosphere, internal heating, and the Gaia hypothesis. Similarly, a planet that is detected interior to the habitable zone could have been habitable in the past. We consider the past habitability of the recently discovered, approximately 5 M(circle) planet, Gliese 581 c. We find that it could have been habitable for reasonable choices of orbital and physical properties as recently as 2 Gyr ago. However, when constraints derived from the additional companions are included, most parameter choices that indicate past habitability require the two inner planets of the system to have crossed their mutual 3:1 mean motion resonance. As this crossing would likely have resulted in resonance capture, which is not observed, we conclude that Gl 581 c was probably never habitable.

  4. Unsuccessful Study Habits in Foreign Language Courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Phillip D.; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.

    This study determined which study habits would distinguish successful from unsuccessful foreign language learners. Participants were 219 college students from a variety of disciplinary backgrounds enrolled in either Spanish, French, German, or Japanese classes. The students completed the Study Habits Inventory and the Background Demographic Form.…

  5. SMOKING HABITS AMONG SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SMOKING HABITS AMONG SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS IN SELECTED DISTRICTS IN ZIMBABWE. ... Journal of Child and Adolescent Mental Health ... Objective To examine the relationship between smoking habits and indicators of socioeconomic status, the urban/rural dimension and gender among secondary ...

  6. Genetic Influences on Adolescent Eating Habits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaver, Kevin M.; Flores, Tori; Boutwell, Brian B.; Gibson, Chris L.

    2012-01-01

    Behavioral genetic research shows that variation in eating habits and food consumption is due to genetic and environmental factors. The current study extends this line of research by examining the genetic contribution to adolescent eating habits. Analysis of sibling pairs drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health)…

  7. Real Business-cycle Model with Habits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the ability of a real business-cycle model with nonseparabilities in consumption and leisure and external habits both in consumption and leisure to fit the postwar US data. The results indicate a strong but fast-dying habit in leisure, and a somewhat weaker...

  8. The Online Reading Habits of Malaysian Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Mohammad Jafre Bin Zainol; Pourmohammadi, Majid; Varasingam, Nalini A/P; Lean, Ooi Choon

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to ascertain the differences in online reading habits between genders and investigate the relationship between socio-economic status and online reading habits. Using a questionnaire, a quantitative approach was administered to 240 Form-Four students from four secondary schools in Penang Island, Malaysia. Findings…

  9. Quantification and Mitigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization and Climate Change in the Tropical Coastal City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comarazamy, Daniel; Gonzalez, Jorge E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization, along with other cases of land cover and land use changes, has significant climate impacts in tropical regions with the added complexity of occurring within the context of global warming. The individual and combined effects of these two factors on the surface energy balance of a tropical city are investigated by use of an integrated atmospheric modeling approach, taking the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), Puerto Rico as the test case. To achieve this goal, an ensemble of climate and weather simulations is performed, with the climate scenarios combining urban development and sprawl with regional climate change over the past 50 years, and the short-term simulations designed to test the sensitivity to different urban vegetation configurations as mitigating alternatives. As indicator of change, we use the thermal response number (TRN), which is a measure of the sensible heating to the thermal storage of a surface or region, and the Bowen ratio, which is defined as the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes. The TRN of the area occupied by the SJMA has decreased as a consequence of replacing the low land coastal plain vegetation with man made materials, indicating that it takes less energy to raise the surface temperature of the urban area, whereas the TRN of forested regions has remained virtually unchanged. The global warming signal also has effects on the thermal response of the SJMA, where dryer current conditions generate lower TRN values. Differences due to global warming are more evident in the Bowen ratio pattern, mostly associated with the drier present conditions observed and its effects on sensible and latent heat fluxes. In terms of testing different mitigation strategies, the short-term simulations show that the urban area is more efficient in partitioning surface energy balance terms when green roofs are specified, as opposed to including vegetation inside the urban core.

  10. Long-term hydrodynamic response induced by past climatic and geo-morphologic forcing: The case of the Paris basin, France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jost, A.; Violette, S.; Goncalves, J.; Ledoux, E.; Guyomard, Y.; Guillocheau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Suc, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    In the framework of safe underground storage of radioactive waste in low-permeability layers, it is essential to evaluate the mobility of deep groundwaters over timescales of several million years. On these timescales, the environmental evolution of a repository should depend upon a range of natural processes that are primarily driven by climate and geo-morphologic variations. In this paper, the response of the Paris basin groundwater system to variations in its hydrodynamic boundary conditions induced by past climate and geodynamic changes over the last five million years is investigated. A three-dimensional transient modelling of the Paris basin aquifer/aquitard system was developed using the code NEWSAM (Ecole des Mines de Paris, ENSMP). The geometry and hydrodynamic parameters of the model originate from a basin model, NEWBAS (ENSMP), built to simulate the geological history of the basin. Geo-morphologic evolution is deduced from digital elevation model analysis, which allows to estimate river-valley incision and alpine uplift. Climate forcing results from paleo-climate modelling experiments using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) with a refined spatial resolution, for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and the Middle Pliocene Warmth (similar to 3 Ma). The water balance is computed by the distributed hydrological model MODSUR (ENSMP). Results about the simulated evolution of piezometric heads in the system in response to the altered boundary conditions are presented, in particular in the vicinity of ANDRA's Bure potential repository site within the Callovo-Oxfordian argillaceous layer. For the present, the comparison of head patterns between steady state and time dependent simulation shows little differences for aquifer layers close to the surface but suggests a transient state of the current system in the main aquitards of the basin and in the deep aquifers, characterized by abnormally low fluid

  11. Long-term projections of temperature-related mortality risks for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and acute ischemic heart disease under changing climate in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Liu, Fangchao; Sun, Qinghua; Kinney, Patrick L

    2018-03-01

    Changing climates have been causing variations in the number of global ischemic heart disease and stroke incidences, and will continue to affect disease occurrence in the future. To project temperature-related mortality for acute ischemic heart disease, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with concomitant climate warming. We estimated the exposure-response relationship between daily cause-specific mortality and daily mean temperature in Beijing. We utilized outputs from 31 downscaled climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. This strategy was used to estimate future net temperature along with heat- and cold-related deaths. The results for predicted temperature-related deaths were subsequently contrasted with the baseline period. In the 2080s, using the RCP8.5 and no population variation scenarios, the net total number of annual temperature-related deaths exhibited a median value of 637 (with a range across models of 434-874) for ischemic stroke; this is an increase of approximately 100% compared with the 1980s. The median number of projected annual temperature-related deaths was 660 (with a range across models of 580-745) for hemorrhagic stroke (virtually no change compared with the 1980s), and 1683 (with a range across models of 1351-2002) for acute ischemic heart disease (a slight increase of approximately 20% compared with the 1980s). In the 2080s, the monthly death projection for hemorrhagic stroke and acute ischemic heart disease showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter while the largest absolute changes for ischemic stroke occurred in summer. We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  12. Long-term impact of changing childhood malnutrition on rotavirus diarrhoea: Two decades of adjusted association with climate and socio-demographic factors from urban Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sumon Kumar; Chisti, Mohammod Jobayer; Sarker, Mohammad Habibur Rahman; Das, Jui; Ahmed, Shawnawaz; Shahunja, K M; Nahar, Shamsun; Gibbons, Nora; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Faruque, Abu Syed Golam; Rahman, Mustafizur; J Fuchs, George; Al Mamun, Abdullah; John Baker, Peter

    2017-01-01

    There is strong association between childhood rotavirus, diarrhoea, climate factors and malnutrition. Conversely, a significant nutritional transition (reduced under-nutrition) with a concurrent increasing trend of rotavirus infection in last decade was also observed among under 5 children, especially in developing countries including Bangladesh. Considering the pathophysiology of rotavirus, there might be an interaction of this nutrition transition which plays a pivotal role in increasing rotavirus infection in addition to climate and other man-made factors in urban areas such as Dhaka, Bangladesh. Relevant monthly data from 1993-2012 were extracted from the archive of the Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance System of icddr, b and linked with data collected from the Dhaka station of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (mean temperature, rainfall, sea level pressure and humidity). Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were deployed to determine the association between the monthly proportion of rotavirus infection and underweight, stunting and wasting adjusting for climate, socio-demographic and sanitation factors. The proportion of rotavirus cases among all causes diarrhoea increased from 20% in 1993 to 43% in 2012 (Chi squared for trend p = 0.010). In contrast, underweight, stunting and wasting decreased from 59%-29% (pchildhood malnutrition is significantly associated with increasing rotavirus diarrhoea among under-5 children. Thus mass vaccination in addition to interventions directed at man-made modifiable predictors for prevention and control is warranted.

  13. Applying a Multi-Model Ensemble Method for Long-Term Runoff Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios for the Yellow River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linus Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Given the substantial impacts that are expected due to climate change, it is crucial that accurate rainfall–runoff results are provided for various decision-making purposes. However, these modeling results often generate uncertainty or bias due to the imperfect character of individual models. In this paper, a genetic algorithm together with a Bayesian model averaging method are employed to provide a multi-model ensemble (MME and combined runoff prediction under climate change scenarios produced from eight rainfall–runoff models for the Yellow River Basin. The results show that the multi-model ensemble method, especially the genetic algorithm method, can produce more reliable predictions than the other considered rainfall–runoff models. These results show that it is possible to reduce the uncertainty and thus improve the accuracy for future projections using different models because an MME approach evens out the bias involved in the individual model. For the study area, the final combined predictions reveal that less runoff is expected under most climatic scenarios, which will threaten water security of the basin.

  14. The Pale Orange Dot: The Spectrum and Habitability of Hazy Archean Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arney, Giada; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn D; Meadows, Victoria S; Wolf, Eric T; Schwieterman, Edward; Charnay, Benjamin; Claire, Mark; Hébrard, Eric; Trainer, Melissa G

    2016-11-01

    Recognizing whether a planet can support life is a primary goal of future exoplanet spectral characterization missions, but past research on habitability assessment has largely ignored the vastly different conditions that have existed in our planet's long habitable history. This study presents simulations of a habitable yet dramatically different phase of Earth's history, when the atmosphere contained a Titan-like, organic-rich haze. Prior work has claimed a haze-rich Archean Earth (3.8-2.5 billion years ago) would be frozen due to the haze's cooling effects. However, no previous studies have self-consistently taken into account climate, photochemistry, and fractal hazes. Here, we demonstrate using coupled climate-photochemical-microphysical simulations that hazes can cool the planet's surface by about 20 K, but habitable conditions with liquid surface water could be maintained with a relatively thick haze layer (τ ∼ 5 at 200 nm) even with the fainter young Sun. We find that optically thicker hazes are self-limiting due to their self-shielding properties, preventing catastrophic cooling of the planet. Hazes may even enhance planetary habitability through UV shielding, reducing surface UV flux by about 97% compared to a haze-free planet and potentially allowing survival of land-based organisms 2.7-2.6 billion years ago. The broad UV absorption signature produced by this haze may be visible across interstellar distances, allowing characterization of similar hazy exoplanets. The haze in Archean Earth's atmosphere was strongly dependent on biologically produced methane, and we propose that hydrocarbon haze may be a novel type of spectral biosignature on planets with substantial levels of CO 2 . Hazy Archean Earth is the most alien world for which we have geochemical constraints on environmental conditions, providing a useful analogue for similar habitable, anoxic exoplanets. Key Words: Haze-Archean Earth-Exoplanets-Spectra-Biosignatures-Planetary habitability

  15. Star Masses and Star-Planet Distances for Earth-like Habitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltham, David

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents statistical estimates for the location and duration of habitable zones (HZs) around stars of different mass. The approach is based upon the assumption that Earth's location, and the Sun's mass, should not be highly atypical of inhabited planets. The results support climate-model-based estimates for the location of the Sun's HZ except models giving a present-day outer-edge beyond 1.64 AU. The statistical approach also demonstrates that there is a habitability issue for stars smaller than 0.65 solar masses since, otherwise, Earth would be an extremely atypical inhabited world. It is difficult to remove this anomaly using the assumption that poor habitability of planets orbiting low-mass stars results from unfavorable radiation regimes either before, or after, their stars enter the main sequence. However, the anomaly is well explained if poor habitability results from tidal locking of planets in the HZs of small stars. The expected host-star mass for planets with intelligent life then has a 95% confidence range of 0.78 M ⊙ planets with at least simple life is 0.57 M ⊙  < M < 1.64 M ⊙ . Key Words: Habitability-Habitable zone-Anthropic-Red dwarfs-Initial mass function. Astrobiology 17, 61-77.

  16. A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. Mazmanian

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

  17. URGENSI STRATEGI DISPOSITION HABITS OF MIND MATEMATIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bety Miliyawati

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRAK Kebiasaan berpikir (habits of mind memiliki peranan penting dalam proses pembelajaran dan perkembangan individu dalam membantu memecahkan masalah. Habits Of Mind (HOM adalah kebiasaan berpikir secara fleksibel, mengelola secara empulsif, mendengarkan dengan empati, membiasakan mengajukan pertanyaan, kebiasaan menyelesaikan masalah secara efektif, membiasakan menggunakan pengetahuan masa lalu untuk situasi baru, membiasakan berkomunikasi, berpikir jernih dengan tepat, menggunakan semua indera ketika mengumpulkan informasi, mencoba cara berbeda dan menghasilkan ide-ide yang baru, kebiasaan untuk merespon, kebiasaan untuk mengambil resiko, biasa bertanggung jawab, memiliki rasa humor, membiasakan berpikir interaktif dengan orang lain, bersikap terbuka dan mencoba terus-menerus. Hal ini sejalan dengan tujuan Kurikulum 2013, yaitu mempersiapkan generasi bangsa agar memiliki kemampuan hidup sebagai pribadi dan warga negara yang produktif, kreatif, inovatif, dan afektif. Artikel ini dikaji didasarkan atas analisis terhadap: (1 karakteristik matematika, (2 habits of mind matematis, dan (3 disposition contoh strategi HOM dalam pembelajaran matematika yang dikembangkan pada siswa. Kata Kunci    : Pembelajaran, Karakteristik Matematika, Habits of Mind Matematis   ABSTRACT Habits of mind have an important role in the learning process and the development of individuals in helping to solve the problem. Habits Of Mind (HOM is the habit of thinking flexibly, manage empulsif, listening with empathy, get used to ask questions, solve problems effectively habit, the habit of using past knowledge to new situations, to get used to communicate, think clearly, precisely, using all the senses when gathering information, trying different ways and generate new ideas, habits to respond, the habit to take risks, the usual charge, have a sense of humor, familiarize interactive thinking with others, be open and try constantly. This is in line with the curriculum

  18. Thumb Sucking: Help Your Child Break the Habit

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... older kids who continue to suck their thumbs, peer pressure at school usually ends the habit. Remember, though, ... an incredibly difficult habit to break. Remember, though, peer pressure typically leads kids to stop daytime sucking habits ...

  19. Breaking Bad Habits | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of this page please turn Javascript on. Feature: Bad Habits Breaking Bad Habits: Why It's So Hard to Change Past Issues / ... News in Health ( http://newsinhealth.nih.gov/ ) Break Bad Habits Avoid temptations. If you always stop for a ...

  20. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog

  1. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  2. Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Bryan A; Dunham, Jason B; Blundon, Brett W; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J

    2015-02-01

    Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The long-term effect of climate change on productivity of winter wheat in Denmark: a scenario analysis using three crop models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Öztürk, Isik; Sharif, Behzad; Baby, Sanmohan

    2017-01-01

    ) A1B emission scenario for the 21st century using three process-based models; A 20-year set (1991–2010) of observed daily climate data from Aarslev, Denmark was used to form the baseline, from which the RCM data were generated. The simulation of crop growth was performed with increasing carbon...... dioxide (CO2) levels and under continuous mono-cropping system at different N input rates. Results indicated that grain yield and grain N will be reduced in the future despite increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. While the increased N input may increase yield, it will not increase grain N...

  4. Heliophysics: Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Space and Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrijver, Carolus J.; Siscoe, George L.

    2012-01-01

    Preface; 1. Interconnectedness in heliophysics Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars Carolus J. Schrijver; 3. Formation and early evolution of stars and proto-planetary disks Lee W. Hartmann; 4. Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales Donald E. Brownlee; 5. Solar internal flows and dynamo action Mark S. Miesch; 6. Modeling solar and stellar dynamos Paul Charbonneau; 7. Planetary fields and dynamos Ulrich R. Christensen; 8. The structure and evolution of the 3D solar wind John T. Gosling; 9. The heliosphere and cosmic rays J. Randy Jokipii; 10. Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models Judith L. Lean and Thomas N. Woods; 11. Astrophysical influences on planetary climate systems Juerg Beer; 12. Evaluating the drivers of Earth's climate system Thomas J. Crowley; 13. Ionospheres of the terrestrial planets Stanley C. Solomon; 14. Long-term evolution of the geospace climate Jan J. Sojka; 15. Waves and transport processes in atmospheres and oceans Richard L. Walterscheid; 16. Solar variability, climate, and atmospheric photochemistry Guy P. Brasseur, Daniel Marsch and Hauke Schmidt; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index.

  5. Constraining Exoplanet Habitability with HabEx

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    The Habitable Exoplanet Imaging mission, or HabEx, is one of four flagship mission concepts currently under study for the upcoming 2020 Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics. The broad goal of HabEx will be to image and study small, rocky planets in the Habitable Zones of nearby stars. Additionally, HabEx will pursue a range of other astrophysical investigations, including the characterization of non-habitable exoplanets and detailed observations of stars and galaxies. Critical to the capability of HabEx to understand Habitable Zone exoplanets will be its ability to search for signs of surface liquid water (i.e., habitability) and an active biosphere. Photometry and moderate resolution spectroscopy, spanning the ultraviolet through near-infrared spectral ranges, will enable constraints on key habitability-related atmospheric species and properties (e.g., surface pressure). In this poster, we will discuss approaches to detecting signs of habitability in reflected-light observations of rocky exoplanets. We will also present initial results for modeling experiments aimed at demonstrating the capabilities of HabEx to study and understand Earth-like worlds around other stars.

  6. Healthy eating habits protect against temptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Pei-Ying; Wood, Wendy; Monterosso, John

    2016-08-01

    Can healthy food-choice habits protect people against temptations of consuming large portion sizes and unhealthy foods? In two studies, we show that the answer is yes, good habits serve this protective role, at least in contexts in which people are not deliberating and thus fall back on habitual responses. In the first study, participants trained with unhealthy habits to approach eating chocolate, but not those trained with healthy habits, succumbed to temptation and ate more chocolates when their self-control resources were depleted. Study 2 extended and clarified these findings by demonstrating the role of environmental cues in eliciting healthy habits when self-control resources are depleted. Participants who had been trained to choose carrots habitually to a pictorial stimulus (i.e., habit cue) subsequently resisted choosing M&Ms as long as the cue was present. This effect of habit cues on healthy food choices suggests the usefulness of manipulating such cues as a means of meeting self-regulatory goals such as portion control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Functional neuroimaging of avoidance habits in OCD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillan, Claire M; Apergis-Schoute, Annemieke M; Morein-Zamir, Sharon; Urcelay, Gonzalo P; Sule, Akeem; Fineberg, Naomi A; Sahakian, Barbara J; Robbins, Trevor W

    2016-01-01

    Objective The goal of this study was to determine the neural correlates of excessive habit formation in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). We aimed to (i) test for neurobiological convergence with the known pathophysiology of OCD and (ii) infer, based on abnormalities in brain activation, whether these habits arise from dysfunction in the goal-directed or habit system. Method Thirty-seven OCD patients and 33 controls learned to avoid shocks while undergoing a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) scan. Following 4 blocks of training, we tested if the avoidance response had become a habit by removing the threat of shock and measuring continued avoidance. We tested for task-related differences in brain activity in 3 ROIs, the caudate, putamen and medial orbitofrontal cortex at a statistical threshold of phabit formation in OCD patients, which was associated with hyper-activation in the caudate. Activation in this region was also associated with subjective ratings of increased urge to perform habits. The OCD group, as a whole, showed hyper-activation in the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) during the acquisition of avoidance, however this did not relate directly to habit formation. Conclusions OCD patients exhibited excessive habits that were associated with hyper-activation in a key region implicated in the pathophysiology of OCD, the caudate nucleus. Prior studies suggest that this region is important for goal-directed behavior, suggesting that habit-forming biases in OCD may be a result of impairments in this system, rather than differences in the build up of stimulus-response habits themselves. PMID:25526600

  8. Interannual and long-term changes in the trophic state of a multibasin lake: Effects of morphology, climate, winter aeration, and beaver activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William; Reneau, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Little St. Germain Lake (LSG), a relatively pristine multibasin lake in Wisconsin, USA, was examined to determine how morphologic (internal), climatic (external), anthropogenic (winter aeration), and natural (beaver activity) factors affect the trophic state (phosphorus, P; chlorophyll, CHL; and Secchi depth, SD) of each of its basins. Basins intercepting the main flow and external P sources had highest P and CHL and shallowest SD. Internal loading in shallow, polymictic basins caused P and CHL to increase and SD to decrease as summer progressed. Winter aeration used to eliminate winterkill increased summer internal P loading and decreased water quality, while reductions in upstream beaver impoundments had little effect on water quality. Variations in air temperature and precipitation affected each basin differently. Warmer air temperatures increased productivity throughout the lake and decreased clarity in less eutrophic basins. Increased precipitation increased P in the basins intercepting the main flow but had little effect on the isolated deep West Bay. These relations are used to project effects of future climatic changes on LSG and other temperate lakes.

  9. A long-term multi-proxy record of varved sediments highlights climate-induced mixing-regime shift in a large hard-water lake ~5000 years ago

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Finsinger

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-term terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem dynamics spanning between approximately 6200 and 4800 cal BP were investigated using pollen, diatoms, pigments, charcoal, and geochemistry from varved sediments collected in a large stratified perialpine lake, Lago Grande di Avigliana, in the Italian Alps. Marked changes were detected in diatom and pigment assemblages and in sediment composition at ~4900 cal BP. Organic matter rapidly increased and diatom assemblages shifted from oligotrophic to oligo-mesotrophic planktonic assemblages suggesting that nutrients increased at that time. Because land cover, erosion, and fire frequency did not change significantly, external nutrient sources were possibly not essential in controlling the lake-ecosystem dynamics. This is also supported by redundancy analysis, which showed that variables explaining significant amounts of variance in the diatom data were not the ones related to changes in the catchment. Instead, the broad coincidence between the phytoplankton dynamics and rising lake-levels, cooler temperatures, and stronger spring winds in the northern Mediterranean borderlands possibly points to the effects of climate change on the nutrient recycling in the lake by means of the control that climate can exert on mixing depth. We hypothesize that the increased P-release rates and higher organic-matter accumulation rates, proceeded by enhanced precipitation of iron sulphides, were possibly caused by deeper and stronger mixing leading to enhanced input of nutrients from the anoxic hypolimnion into the epilimnion. Although we cannot completely rule out the influence of minor land-cover changes due to human activities, it may be hypothesized that climate-induced cumulative effects related to mixing regime and P-recycling from sediments influenced the aquatic-ecosystem dynamics.

  10. The Habitable Zone Gallery and its Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelino, Dawn M.; Kane, S. R.

    2012-05-01

    The Habitable Zone Gallery (www.hzgallery.org) is a service to the exoplanet community which provides Habitable Zone (HZ) information for each of the exoplanetary systems with known planetary orbital parameters. The service includes a sortable table, a plot with the period and eccentricity of each of the planets with respect to their time spent in the HZ, a gallery of known systems which plot the orbits and the location of the HZ with respect to those orbits, and orbital movies. Here we discuss various educational and scientific applications of the site such as target selection, exploring planets with eccentric orbits, and investigating habitability.

  11. Climate and Energy Roadmaps towards 2050 in north-western Europe. A concise overview of long-term climate and energy policies in Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Notenboom, J.; Boot, P.; Koelemeijer, R.; Ros, J.

    2013-10-15

    Many European countries are developing plans for a transition towards a low-carbon economy in 2050. These plans are often named climate and energy roadmaps. Although roadmaps are also developed and discussed at EU level, this paper expressly follows a bottom-up approach by looking at developments in six north-western European countries. These countries' roadmaps are in various stages of development and cannot be compared in detail. Main differences, common approaches and possible needs for closer cooperation are therefore explored in a stylised way.

  12. Long-term tree growth rate, water use efficiency, and tree ring nitrogen isotope composition of Pinus massoniana L. in response to global climate change and local nitrogen deposition in Southern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Fangfang [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou (China). South China Botanical Garden; Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmental Future Centre; Kuang, Yuanwen; Wen, Dazhi [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou (China). South China Botanical Garden; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou (China). Pearl River Delta Research Centre of Environmental Pollution and Control; Xu, Zhihong [Griffith Univ., Nathan, QLD (Australia). Environmental Future Centre; Li, Jianli; Zuo, Weidong [Agriculture and Forestry Technology Extension Centre, Nanhai District, Guangdong (China); Hou, Enqing [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou (China). South China Botanical Garden; Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)

    2010-12-15

    We aimed to investigate long-term tree growth rates, water use efficiencies (WUE), and tree ring nitrogen (N) isotope compositions ({delta}{sup 15}N) of Masson pine (Pinus massoniana L.) in response to global climate change and local N deposition in Southern China. Tree annual growth rings of Masson pine were collected from four forest sites, viz. South China Botanical Garden (SBG), Xi Qiao Shan (XQS) Forest Park, Ding Hu Shan (DHS) Natural Reserve, and Nan Kun Shan (NKS) Natural Reserve in Southern China. The mean annual basal area increment (BAI), WUE, and {delta}{sup 15}N at every 5-year intervals of Masson pine during the last 50 years were determined. Regression analyses were used to quantify the relationships of BAI and WUE with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO{sub 2}]), temperature, rainfall, and tree ring elemental concentrations at the four study sites. Tree BAI showed a quadratic relationship with rising [CO{sub 2}]. The tipping points of [CO{sub 2}] for BAI, the peaks of BAI when the critical [CO{sub 2}] was reached, occurred earlier at the sites of SBG, XQS, and DHS which were exposed to higher temperature, N deposition, and lower mineral nutrient availability, as compared with the tipping points of [CO{sub 2}] for BAI at the site of NKS which had higher rainfall, lower temperature, and better nutritional status. The average tipping point of [CO{sub 2}] at the four sites for the BAI response curves was 356 ppm, after which, the BAI would be expected to decrease quadratically with rising [CO{sub 2}]. The multiple regressions of BAI confirmed the relationships of long-term tree growth rate with rainfall, tree WUE, and nutrients and {delta}{sup 15}N in tree rings. Nonlinear relationships between BAI and tree ring {delta}{sup 15}N at DHS and negatively linear one at NKS reflected the fertilization effect of N deposition on tree growth rate initially, but this effect peaked or became negative once the forest approached or passed the N saturation

  13. Long-term impact of changing childhood malnutrition on rotavirus diarrhoea: Two decades of adjusted association with climate and socio-demographic factors from urban Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumon Kumar Das

    Full Text Available There is strong association between childhood rotavirus, diarrhoea, climate factors and malnutrition. Conversely, a significant nutritional transition (reduced under-nutrition with a concurrent increasing trend of rotavirus infection in last decade was also observed among under 5 children, especially in developing countries including Bangladesh. Considering the pathophysiology of rotavirus, there might be an interaction of this nutrition transition which plays a pivotal role in increasing rotavirus infection in addition to climate and other man-made factors in urban areas such as Dhaka, Bangladesh.Relevant monthly data from 1993-2012 were extracted from the archive of the Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance System of icddr, b and linked with data collected from the Dhaka station of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (mean temperature, rainfall, sea level pressure and humidity. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were deployed to determine the association between the monthly proportion of rotavirus infection and underweight, stunting and wasting adjusting for climate, socio-demographic and sanitation factors.The proportion of rotavirus cases among all causes diarrhoea increased from 20% in 1993 to 43% in 2012 (Chi squared for trend p = 0.010. In contrast, underweight, stunting and wasting decreased from 59%-29% (p<0.001; 53%-21% (p<0.001 and 32%-22% (p<0.001 respectively over the same period. Mean ambient temperature increased from 25.76°C-26.62°C (p = 0.07; mean rainfall, sea level pressure and mean humidity decreased from 234.92-111.75 mm (p = 0.5, 1008.30-1006.61 mm of hg (p = 0.02 and 76.63%-70.26% (p<0.001, respectively. In the adjusted model, a decrease in monthly proportion of underweight [coef.: -0.189 (95% CI:-0.376, -0.003] and wasting [-0.265 (-0.455, -0.075] were significantly and inversely associated with rotavirus infection. However, an inverse but insignificant association was observed for

  14. Climate and Ancient Societies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Climate, and human responses to it, have a strongly interconnected relationship. This when climate change occurs, the result of either natural or human causes, societies should react and adapt to these. But do they? If so, what is the nature of that change, and are the responses positive...... or negative for the long-term survival of social groups? In this volume, scholars from diverse disciplines including archaeology, geology and climate sciences explore scientific and material evidence for climate changes in the past, their causes, their effects on ancient societies and how those societies...

  15. Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Shengwu; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Li, Xianda; Ouyang, Yanlan

    2016-09-01

    The migration of birds is fascinating for humans but it's also a serious environmental monitoring and management issue on a global level. Bird banding using mistnets has been the method of choice for decades worldwide; linking these data with climate data allows to infer on global warming and outlier events. However, good methods to achieve this effectively in time and space for many species are still missing; data for Asia are specifically sparse and often 'messy'. Here we present a data mining summary information for data from two bird banding stations (Gaofeng and Qingfeng) along the vast Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway. Bird data were collected during spring 2002-2011 with standardized techniques and then linked with related climate data in the banding as well as the wintering sites. This creates a complex data set which is based on a decade and which includes many predictors. This first-time data mining analysis with 'data cloning' and machine learning methods (boosted regression trees) shows how to extract the major signals in this unique dataset from highly correlated and interacting predictors. Our results indicate a large-scale warming trend for the flyway, with a start in 2003, and a freezing rain outlier event in 2008; the last years remained on a rather warm level. All evidence along this vast flyway supports major changes, warming trends, habitat losses and consequently strong passerine declines. Presumably human pressures are a major factor either way and we propose to address these problems immediately for betterment if meaningful conservation targets are to be met.

  16. Long-term climate record inferred from early-middle Pleistocene amphibian and squamate reptile assemblages at the Gran Dolina Cave, Atapuerca, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Bailon, Salvador; Cuenca-Bescós, Gloria; Arsuaga, Juan Luis; Bermúdez de Castro, José Maria; Carbonell, Eudald

    2009-01-01

    The Gran Dolina cave site is famous for having delivered some of the oldest hominin remains of Western Europe (Homo antecessor, ca. 960 ka). Moreover, the evidence of lithic industries throughout the long vertical section suggests occupation on the part of hominins from the latest early Pleistocene (levels TD3/4, TD5, and TD6) to the late middle Pleistocene (level TD10). The Gran Dolina Sondeo Sur (TDS) has furnished a great number of small-vertebrate remains; among them some 40,000 bones are attributed to amphibians and squamates. Although they do not differ specifically from the extant herpetofauna of the Iberian Peninsula, the overlap of their current distribution areas (= mutual climatic range method) in Spain can provide mean annual temperatures (MAT), the mean temperatures of the coldest (MTC) and warmest (MTW) months, and mean annual precipitation (MAP) estimations for each sub-level, and their change can be studied throughout the sequence. Results from the squamate and amphibian study indicate that during hominin occupation the MAT (10-13 degrees C) was always slightly warmer than at present in the vicinity of the Gran Dolina Cave, and the MAP (800-1000mm) was greater than today in the Burgos area. Climatic differences between "glacial" and "interglacial" phases are poorly marked. Summer temperatures (MTW) show stronger oscillations than winter temperatures (MTC), but seasonality remains almost unchanged throughout the sequence. These results are compared with those for large mammals, small mammals, and pollen analysis, giving a scenario for the palaeoclimatic conditions that occurred during the early to middle Pleistocene in Atapuerca, and hence a scenario for the hominins that once lived in the Sierra de Atapuerca.

  17. The Siberian High and Arctic Sea Ice: Long-term Climate Change and Impacts on Air Pollution during Wintertime in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, X.; Zhao, S.; Feng, T.; Tie, X.; Li, G.

    2017-12-01

    China has undergone severe air pollution during wintertime as national industrialization and urbanization have been increasingly developed in the past three decades. It has been suggested that high emission and adverse weather patterns contribute to wintertime air pollution. Recent studies propose that climate change and Arctic sea ice loss likely lead to extreme haze events in winter. Here we use two reanalysis and observational datasets to present the trends of Siberian High (SH) intensity over Eurasia, and Arctic temperature and sea ice. The results show the Arctic region of Asia is becoming warming accompanied by a rapid decline of sea ice while Eurasia is cooling and SH intensity is gradually enhancing. Wind patterns induced by these changes cause straight westerly prevailing over Eurasia at the year of weak SH while strengthened northerly winds at the year of strong SH. Therefore, we utilize regional dynamical and chemical WRF-Chem model to determine the impact of SH intensity difference on wintertime air pollution in China. As a result, enhancing northerly winds at the year of strong SH rapidly dilute and transport air pollution, causing a decline of 50 - 400 µg m-3 PM2.5 concentrations relative to that at the year of weak SH. We also assess the impact of emission reduction to half the current level on air pollution. The results show that emission reduction by 50% has an equivalent impact as the variability of SH intensity. This suggests that climate change over Eurasia has largely offset the negative impact of emission on air pollution and it is urgently needed to take measures to mitigate air pollution. In view of current high emission scenario in China, it will be a long way to effectively mitigate, or ultimately prevent wintertime air pollution.

  18. Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Afshan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%. Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five mete- orological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt, water-budget-based system (Wb-bs indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i sheep-goats and cattle- buffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situa- tion of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical dis- tribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recom- mended to be applied throughout the whole province.

  19. Impact of climate change and man-made irrigation systems on the transmission risk, long-term trend and seasonality of human and animal fascioliasis in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshan, Kiran; Fortes-Lima, Cesar A; Artigas, Patricio; Valero, Adela M; Qayyum, Mazhar; Mas-Coma, Santiago

    2014-05-01

    Large areas of the province of Punjab, Pakistan are endemic for fascioliasis, resulting in high economic losses due to livestock infection but also affecting humans directly. The prevalence in livestock varies pronouncedly in space and time (1-70%). Climatic factors influencing fascioliasis presence and potential spread were analysed based on data from five meteorological stations during 1990-2010. Variables such as wet days (Mt), water-budget-based system (Wb-bs) indices and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were obtained and correlated with geographical distribution, seasonality patterns and the two-decade evolution of fascioliasis in livestock throughout the province. The combined approach by these three indices proved to furnish a useful tool to analyse the complex epidemiology that includes (i) sheep-goats and cattlebuffaloes presenting different immunological responses to fasciolids; (ii) overlap of Fasciola hepatica and F. gigantica; (iii) co-existence of highlands and lowlands in the area studied; and (iv) disease transmission following bi-seasonality with one peak related to natural rainfall and another peak related to man-made irrigation. Results suggest a human infection situation of concern and illustrate how climate and anthropogenic environment modifications influence both geographical distribution and seasonality of fascioliasis risks. Increased fascioliasis risk throughout the Punjab plain and its decrease in the northern highlands of the province became evident during the study period. The high risk in the lowlands is worrying given that Punjab province largely consists of low-altitude, highly irrigated plains. The importance of livestock in this province makes it essential to prioritise adequate control measures. An annual treatment scheme to control the disease is recommended to be applied throughout the whole province.

  20. Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Lennartz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

  1. Scratching the Surface of Martian Habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, Pamela G.

    2014-01-01

    Earth and Mars, though formed at the same time from the same materials, look very different today. Early in their histories they evolved through some of the same processes, but at some point their evolutionary paths diverged, sending them in perhaps irrevocably different directions. Knowledge of the factors that contributed to such different outcomes will help to determine how planets become habitable and how common habitable planets may be. The Mars surface environment is harsh today, but in situ measurements of ancient sedimentary rock by Mars Science Laboratory reveal chemical and mineralogical evidence of past conditions that might have been more favorable for life to exist. But chemistry is only part of what is required to make an environment habitable. Physical conditions constrain the chemical reactions that underlie life processes; the chemical and physical characteristics that make planets habitable are thus entangled.

  2. Habitability Assessment of International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaxton, Sherry

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to assess habitability during the International Space Station 1-year mission, and subsequent 6-month missions, in order to better prepare for future long-duration spaceflights to destinations such as Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) and Mars, which will require crewmembers to live and work in a confined spacecraft environment for over a year. Data collected using Space Habitability Observation Reporting Tool (iSHORT), crew-collected videos, questionnaires, and PI conferences will help characterize the current state of habitability for the ISS. These naturalistic techniques provide crewmembers with the opportunity to self-report habitability and human factors observations in near real-time, which is not systematically done during ISS missions at present.

  3. GIS Technology: Resource and Habitability Assessment Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We are applying Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to new orbital data sets for lunar resource assessment and the identification of past habitable environments on...

  4. Alaska Steller Sea Lion Food Habits Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains food habits samples, usually scats, collected opportunistically on Steller sea lion rookeries and haulouts in Alaska from 1985 to present....

  5. An evaluation of Skylab habitability hardware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, J.

    1974-01-01

    For effective mission performance, participants in space missions lasting 30-60 days or longer must be provided with hardware to accommodate their personal needs. Such habitability hardware was provided on Skylab. Equipment defined as habitability hardware was that equipment composing the food system, water system, sleep system, waste management system, personal hygiene system, trash management system, and entertainment equipment. Equipment not specifically defined as habitability hardware but which served that function were the Wardroom window, the exercise equipment, and the intercom system, which was occasionally used for private communications. All Skylab habitability hardware generally functioned as intended for the three missions, and most items could be considered as adequate concepts for future flights of similar duration. Specific components were criticized for their shortcomings.

  6. Human Factors and Habitability Assessment Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The major accomplishment for FY2012 was successful testing of the iPad-based Space Habitability Observation Reporting Tool (iSHORT) during NEEMO 16. iSHORT is an...

  7. Marine Mammal Food Habits Reference Collections

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Marine Mammal Laboratory (NMML) Food Habits Reference Collection, containing over 8000 specimens of cephalopod beaks and fish bones and otoliths, is...

  8. Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, B.; Corbeels, M.; Wijk, van M.T.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.

    2013-01-01

    In West Africa predictions of future changes in climate and especially rainfall are highly uncertain, and up to now no long-term analyses are available of the effects of climate on crop production. This study analyses long-term trends in climate variability at N'Tarla and Sikasso in southern Mali

  9. Discussion on control room habitability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Bing; Chen Yingying; Xiao Jun; Yang Duanjie; Cui Hao

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on control room envelope integrity, source term analysis in habitability assessments and other impact factors for dose consequence is provided combined with regulatory requirements and the current status of domestic NPPs. Considering that the infiltration is an important factor for control room habitability assessment, CRE integrity test should be performed to demonstrate the CRE's infiltration characteristics. The consequence assessment should be performed based on different DBAs and different pathways, such as pathways internal to the plant. (authors)

  10. Determinants of Smoking Habit among Medical Students

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Virendra Vikram; Singh, Zile; Banerjee, A; Basannar, DR

    2003-01-01

    A cross sectional study of smoking habits among medical students was carried out to find out the prevalence of smoking and its association with certain factors such as parental smoking, peer pressure, use of alcohol and other drugs. Prevalence of smoking was 46%. There was significant association of smoking with parental smoking habit, peer pressure, use of alcohol and other drugs. Strategies to counter these social determinants have been discussed.

  11. Military experience can influence Women's eating habits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breland, Jessica Y; Donalson, Rosemary; Nevedal, Andrea; Dinh, Julie V; Maguen, Shira

    2017-11-01

    Disordered eating, ranging from occasional binge eating or restriction to behaviors associated with eating disorder diagnoses, is common among military personnel and veterans. However, there is little information on how military service affects eating habits. To describe possible pathways between military service and disordered eating among women veterans, a high risk group. Twenty women veterans who reported changing eating habits in response to stress participated in audio-recorded focus groups or dyadic interviews between April 2013 and October 2014. We used thematic analysis of transcripts to identify and understand women's self-reported eating habits before, during, and after military service. Participants reported entering the military with varied eating habits, but little disordered eating. Participants described several ways military environments affected eating habits, for example, by promoting fast, irregular, binge-like eating and disrupting the reward value of food. Participants believed military-related stressors, which were often related to gender, also affected eating habits. Such stressors included military sexual trauma and the need to meet military weight requirements in general and after giving birth. Participants also reported that poor eating habits continued after military service, often because they remained under stress. For some women, military service can result in socialization to poor eating habits, which when combined with exposure to stressors can lead to disordered eating. Additional research is needed, including work to understand possible benefits associated with providing support in relation to military weight requirements and the transition out of military service. Given the unique experiences of women in the military, future work could also focus on health services surrounding pregnancy-related weight change and the stress associated with being a woman in predominantly male military environments. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. The Habitable Zone and Extreme Planetary Orbits

    OpenAIRE

    Kane, Stephen R.; Gelino, Dawn M.

    2012-01-01

    The habitable zone for a given star describes the range of circumstellar distances from the star within which a planet could have liquid water on its surface, which depends upon the stellar properties. Here we describe the development of the habitable zone concept, its application to our own solar system, and its subsequent application to exoplanetary systems. We further apply this to planets in extreme eccentric orbits and show how they may still retain life-bearing properties depending upon...

  13. [Bad habits and dysgnathia: epidemiological study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordasco, G; Lo Giudice, G; Dolci, E; Romeo, U; Lafronte, G

    1989-01-01

    The authors refer about an epidemiological survey in 651 children in the school-age. The aim of study is to investigate about the frequency of the bad habits and the pathogenetic relations between these and the development of the dento-maxillo-facial deformities. They point out an incidence of these bad habits in the 35,48% with a predominance of mouth breathers (45,45%). After they discuss the necessity of an early detection of anomalous neuromuscular attitudes.

  14. Investigating Habits: Strategies, Technologies, and Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle Stephen Smith

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Understanding habits at a biological level requires a combination of behavioral observations and measures of ongoing neural activity. Theoretical frameworks as well as definitions of habitual behaviors emerging from classic behavioral research have been enriched by new approaches taking account of the identification of brain regions and circuits related to habitual behavior. Together, this combination of experimental and theoretical work has provided key insights into how brain circuits underlying action-learning and action-selection are organized, and how a balance between behavioral flexibility and fixity is achieved. New methods to monitor and manipulate neural activity in real time are allowing us to have a first look ‘under the hood’ of a habit as it is formed and expressed. Here we discuss ideas emerging from such approaches. We pay special attention to the unexpected findings that have arisen from our own experiments suggesting that habitual behaviors likely require the simultaneous activity of multiple distinct components, or operators, seen as responsible for the contrasting dynamics of neural activity in both cortico-limbic and sensorimotor circuits recorded concurrently during different stages of habit learning. The neural dynamics identified thus far do not fully meet expectations derived from traditional models of the structure of habits, and the behavioral measures of habits that we have made also are not fully aligned with these models. We explore these new clues as opportunities to refine an understanding of habits.

  15. Corresponding Habits of Mind and Mathematical Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwirahayu, G.; Kustiawati, D.; Bidari, I.

    2017-09-01

    Objective of learning process regarding system of Indonesia government should be consist of knowledge, attitudes, and skills, or in general we call cognitive, affective and psychomotor. These objective are apply to mathematics education also. Attitude in mathematics known as habits of mind. The teacher should create a learning objective which including all, cognitive, affective and psychomotor. In general, math teachers in Indonesia pay attention to aspects of knowledge, and they ignore other aspects. Habits of mind is term which means the tendency to behave intellectually or intelligently when faced with problems which is immediately known solution. This article examines the math teacher’s attention to students’ habits of mind. The research done by survey method to 38 students at Islamic School 32 Jakarta academic year 2015/2016 from April to May 2016. Habits of mind are observed in this research restricted to persisting, thinking about thinking, thinking flexible and applying past knowledge to new situation. Based on survey, conclude that teacher, without realizing, they have to improve students’ habits of mind, as long as teaching and learning only persisting and thinking about thinking are already well developed, while flexible thinking and applying past knowledge to new situation has not well developed. We hope, math teacher can pay attention not only cognitive aspect but habits of mind also.

  16. Characterizing Exoplanet Habitability with Emission Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Results from NASA’s Kepler mission and other recent exoplanet surveys have demonstrated that potentially habitable exoplanets are relatively common, especially in the case of low-mass stellar hosts. The next key question that must be addressed for such planets is whether or not these worlds are actually habitable, implying they could sustain surface liquid water. Only through investigations of the potential habitability of exoplanets and through searches for biosignatures from these planets will we be able to understand if the emergence of life is a common phenomenon in our galaxy. Emission spectroscopy for transiting exoplanets (sometimes called secondary eclipse spectroscopy) is a powerful technique that future missions will use to study the atmospheres and surfaces of worlds orbiting in the habitable zones of nearby, low-mass stars. Emission observations that span the mid-infrared wavelength range for potentially habitable exoplanets provide opportunities to detect key habitability and life signatures, and also allow observers to probe atmospheric and surface temperatures. This presentation will outline the case for using emission spectroscopy to understand if an exoplanet can sustain surface liquid water, which is believed to be a critical precursor to the origin of life.

  17. Habitable worlds with no signs of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockell, Charles S

    2014-04-28

    'Most habitable worlds in the cosmos will have no remotely detectable signs of life' is proposed as a biological hypothesis to be tested in the study of exoplanets. Habitable planets could be discovered elsewhere in the Universe, yet there are many hypothetical scenarios whereby the search for life on them could yield negative results. Scenarios for habitable worlds with no remotely detectable signatures of life include: planets that are habitable, but have no biosphere (Uninhabited Habitable Worlds); planets with life, but lacking any detectable surface signatures of that life (laboratory examples are provided); and planets with life, where the concentrations of atmospheric gases produced or removed by biota are impossible to disentangle from abiotic processes because of the lack of detailed knowledge of planetary conditions (the 'problem of exoplanet thermodynamic uncertainty'). A rejection of the hypothesis would require that the origin of life usually occurs on habitable planets, that spectrally detectable pigments and/or metabolisms that produce unequivocal biosignature gases (e.g. oxygenic photosynthesis) usually evolve and that the organisms that harbour them usually achieve a sufficient biomass to produce biosignatures detectable to alien astronomers.

  18. The power of habits: unhealthy snacking behaviour is primarily predicted by habit strength.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoeven, Aukje A C; Adriaanse, Marieke A; Evers, Catharine; de Ridder, Denise T D

    2012-11-01

    Although increasing evidence shows the importance of habits in explaining health behaviour, many studies still rely solely on predictors that emphasize the role of conscious intentions. The present study was designed to test the importance of habit strength in explaining unhealthy snacking behaviour in a large representative community sample (N= 1,103). To test our hypothesis that habits are crucial when explaining unhealthy snacking behaviour, their role was compared to the 'Power of Food', a related construct that addresses sensitivity to food cues in the environment. Moreover, the relation between Power of Food and unhealthy snacking habits was assessed. A prospective design was used to determine the impact of habits in relation to intention, Power of Food and a number of demographic variables. One month after filling out the questionnaire, including measures of habit strength and Power of Food, participants reported their unhealthy snacking behaviour by means of a 7-day snack diary. Results showed that habit strength was the most important predictor, outperforming all other variables in explaining unhealthy snack intake. The findings demonstrate that snacking habits provide a unique contribution in explaining unhealthy snacking behaviour, stressing the importance of addressing habit strength in further research and interventions concerning unhealthy snacking behaviour. ©2012 The British Psychological Society.

  19. Climate, Tree Growth, Forest Drought Stress, and Tree Mortality in Forests of Western North America: Long-Term Patterns and Recent Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.; Williams, P.

    2012-12-01

    Ongoing climate changes are increasingly affecting the world's forests, particularly including high latitude and high elevation coniferous forests. Although forest growth has improved in some regions due to greater growing season length and warmth (perhaps along with increased atmospheric CO2 or N), large growth declines or increased mortality from droughts or hotter temperatures also are being observed. We present and interpret information on regional variation in climate-tree growth relationships and trends, and on patterns and trends of climate-related forest disturbances, from western North America. From 235 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we show that tree-ring growth records from warmer southwestern sites are more sensitive to temperature than tree-ring growth records from cooler southwestern sites. Assessment of 59 tree-ring records from 11 species in the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest shows that trees growing in cool places respond positively to increased temperature and trees in warm places respond negatively, implying that trees historically not sensitive to temperature may become sensitive as mean temperatures warm. An analysis of 59 white spruce populations in Alaska supports the hypothesis that warming has caused tree growth to lose sensitivity to cold temperatures. Comparing ring widths to temperature during just the coldest 50% of years during the 20th century, tree growth was sensitive to cold temperatures, and this effect was strongest at the coldest sites; whereas during the warmest 50% of years, trees were not at all sensitive to cold temperatures, even at the cold sites. Drought and vapor pressure deficit are among the variables that emerge as being increasingly important to these Alaska boreal forests as mean temperatures rise. Most recently, from 346 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we establish a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the three most widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis

  20. Cigarette smoking habits among schoolchildren.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijer, B; Branski, D; Knol, K; Kerem, E

    1996-10-01

    Cigarette smoking is a major preventable cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Most adult smokers start smoking regularly some time before 18 years of age. The aim of this study was to determine the age at which children begin cigarette smoking, to study the environmental factors that influence children to smoke, and to understand the reasons why children smoke. The results of this study may help lead to the development of more effective smoking prevention programs. We carried out a cross-sectional survey of all students in grades 6 to 11 (ages: 11 to 17 years) in two high schools in the Jerusalem area, using an anonymous self-completion questionnaire. The students were asked questions regarding the age at which they began smoking, initiation, their smoking habits, their reasons for smoking, and their views on children who smoke. In addition, they were asked about the smoking status of their parents, siblings, and friends. Finally they were asked about the health hazards of smoking. Of the 847 students who answered the questionnaire, 35% stated that they had smoked at least once and 14% stated that they were currently smoking. The percentage of students who were currently smoking increased gradually with age to 36%. There was a sharp increase in experimental smoking after seventh grade (ages 12 to 13 years). Having a friend who smoked substantially increased the likelihood of smoking, whereas parental smoking or having a sibling who smoked did not increase the likelihood of smoking. The most common reason for starting to smoke was "to try something new" (55%). There was a significant difference between the views of students with different smoking statuses regarding children who smoke: nonsmoking children associated more negative characteristics to smoking. All of the children studied were well aware of the health hazards of cigarette smoking. Smoking is highly prevalent among schoolchildren in Jerusalem. The increase in the rate of smoking at the age of 12

  1. A review of the possible impacts of long-term oceanic and climate changes and fishing mortality on recruitment of anguillid eels of the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knights, B

    2003-07-01

    Possible causes of declines in recruitment of European, American and Japanese eels to continental waters are reviewed. Negative correlations between the Den Oever glass eel recruitment index (DOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index since 1938 are discussed, together with older anecdotal evidence. Correlations are established between the DOI and sea surface temperature anomalies at 100-250 m between 1952 and 1995 in the Sargasso Sea/Sub-Tropical Gyre (STG) spawning area. It is hypothesised that, associated with global warming trends, STG warming inhibits spring thermocline mixing and nutrient circulation, with negative impacts on productivity and hence food for leptocephalus larvae. Concurrent gyre spin-up also affects major currents and slowing of oceanic migration has probably enhanced starvation and predation losses. Local factors, such as unfavourable wind-driven currents, can also affect recruitment of glass eels on continental shelves. In contrast, evidence is discussed that indicates fishing mortality and continental climate change appear to have had lesser impacts. Similar starvation-advection explanations for declines in Japanese eel recruitment are proposed. Predictions for the future are made and multidisciplinary and integrated monitoring and research are recommended for managing eel stocks and fisheries.

  2. Regulation of actions and habits by ventral hippocampal trkB and adolescent corticosteroid exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barfield, Elizabeth T; Gerber, Kyle J; Zimmermann, Kelsey S; Ressler, Kerry J; Parsons, Ryan G; Gourley, Shannon L

    2017-11-01

    In humans and rodents, stress promotes habit-based behaviors that can interfere with action-outcome decision-making. Further, developmental stressor exposure confers long-term habit biases across rodent-primate species. Despite these homologies, mechanisms remain unclear. We first report that exposure to the primary glucocorticoid corticosterone (CORT) in adolescent mice recapitulates multiple neurobehavioral consequences of stressor exposure, including long-lasting biases towards habit-based responding in a food-reinforced operant conditioning task. In both adolescents and adults, CORT also caused a shift in the balance between full-length tyrosine kinase receptor B (trkB) and a truncated form of this neurotrophin receptor, favoring the inactive form throughout multiple corticolimbic brain regions. In adolescents, phosphorylation of the trkB substrate extracellular signal-regulated kinase 42/44 (ERK42/44) in the ventral hippocampus was also diminished, a long-term effect that persisted for at least 12 wk. Administration of the trkB agonist 7,8-dihydroxyflavone (7,8-DHF) during adolescence at doses that stimulated ERK42/44 corrected long-lasting corticosterone-induced behavioral abnormalities. Meanwhile, viral-mediated overexpression of truncated trkB in the ventral hippocampus reduced local ERK42/44 phosphorylation and was sufficient to induce habit-based and depression-like behaviors. Together, our findings indicate that ventral hippocampal trkB is essential to goal-directed action selection, countering habit-based behavior otherwise facilitated by developmental stress hormone exposure. They also reveal an early-life sensitive period during which trkB-ERK42/44 tone determines long-term behavioral outcomes.

  3. HABITABLE ZONES OF POST-MAIN SEQUENCE STARS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kaltenegger, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    Once a star leaves the main sequence and becomes a red giant, its Habitable Zone (HZ) moves outward, promoting detectable habitable conditions at larger orbital distances. We use a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate and stellar evolutionary models to calculate post-MS HZ distances for a grid of stars from 3700 to 10,000 K (∼M1 to A5 stellar types) for different stellar metallicities. The post-MS HZ limits are comparable to the distances of known directly imaged planets. We model the stellar as well as planetary atmospheric mass loss during the Red Giant Branch (RGB) and Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) phases for super-Moons to super-Earths. A planet can stay between 200 million years up to 9 Gyr in the post-MS HZ for our hottest and coldest grid stars, respectively, assuming solar metallicity. These numbers increase for increased stellar metallicity. Total atmospheric erosion only occurs for planets in close-in orbits. The post-MS HZ orbital distances are within detection capabilities of direct imaging techniques.

  4. HABITABLE ZONES OF POST-MAIN SEQUENCE STARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kaltenegger, Lisa [Carl Sagan Institute, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2016-05-20

    Once a star leaves the main sequence and becomes a red giant, its Habitable Zone (HZ) moves outward, promoting detectable habitable conditions at larger orbital distances. We use a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate and stellar evolutionary models to calculate post-MS HZ distances for a grid of stars from 3700 to 10,000 K (∼M1 to A5 stellar types) for different stellar metallicities. The post-MS HZ limits are comparable to the distances of known directly imaged planets. We model the stellar as well as planetary atmospheric mass loss during the Red Giant Branch (RGB) and Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) phases for super-Moons to super-Earths. A planet can stay between 200 million years up to 9 Gyr in the post-MS HZ for our hottest and coldest grid stars, respectively, assuming solar metallicity. These numbers increase for increased stellar metallicity. Total atmospheric erosion only occurs for planets in close-in orbits. The post-MS HZ orbital distances are within detection capabilities of direct imaging techniques.

  5. Changes in food neophobia and dietary habits of international students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, J S A; Hartwell, H L; Brown, L

    2010-06-01

    International study is becoming more prevalent, yet aspects such as food neophobia often militate against visiting students consuming a nutritionally balanced diet. The present study aimed to evaluate the extent to which international post-graduate students experience food neophobia, how this might vary by nationality and other demographic characteristics, and how acculturation might manifest itself in students' dietary behaviour. International students (n = 228) attending a Masters course were invited to complete a validated food neophobia and dietary habits questionnaire during their first week at university. The questionnaire was subsequently re-administered to the same students approximately 4 and 8 months later. In total, 226 usable responses were analysed (124, 58 and 44, respectively) for the first, second and final data collection. Perhaps surprisingly, the overall food neophobia scores increased from an mean (SD) initial value of 27.95 (16.95) to 33.67 (33.67) after 3 months, although, when comparing European and Asian students, only the former were significantly different (P Asian and European students reported small but not significant changes in their eating habits, although, after 3 months, significantly (P = students' perceived healthiness of their diets either by nationality or over time. Understanding the complexities of food neophobia, other aspects of dietary change and at what point these changes might take place in the acculturation process when students arrive in the UK needs to be fully understood if a climate for positive learning is to be established.

  6. Memory Function in Feeding Habit Transformation of Mandarin Fish (Siniperca chuatsi).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, Yaqi; He, Shan; Liang, Xu-Fang; Cai, Wenjing; Wang, Jie; Shi, Linjie; Li, Jiao

    2018-04-22

    Mandarin fish refuse dead prey fish or artificial diets and can be trained to transform their inborn feeding habit. To investigate the effect of memory on feeding habit transformation, we compared the reaction time to dead prey fish and the success rate of feeding habit transformation to dead prey fish with training of mandarin fish in the 1st experimental group (trained once) and the 2nd experimental group (trained twice). The mandarin fish in the 2nd group had higher success rate of feeding habit transformation (100%) than those in the 1st group (67%), and shorter reaction time to dead prey fish (1 s). Gene expression of cAMP responsive element binding protein I ( Creb I ), brain-derived neurotrophic factor ( Bdnf ), CCAAT enhancer binding protein delta ( C/EBPD ), fos-related antigen 2 ( Fra2 ), and proto-oncogenes c-fos ( c-fos ) involved in long-term memory formation were significantly increased in the 2nd group after repeated training, and taste 1 receptor member 1 ( T1R1 ), involved in feeding habit formation, was significantly increased in brains of the 2nd group after repeated training. DNA methylation levels at five candidate CpG (cytosine⁻guanine) sites contained in the predicted CpG island in the 5′-flanking region of T1R1 were significantly decreased in brains of the 2nd group compared with that of the 1st group. These results indicated that the repeated training can improve the feeding habit transformation through the memory formation of accepting dead prey fish. DNA methylation of the T1R1 might be a regulatory factor for feeding habit transformation from live prey fish to dead prey fish in mandarin fish.

  7. Memory Function in Feeding Habit Transformation of Mandarin Fish (Siniperca chuatsi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaqi Dou

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Mandarin fish refuse dead prey fish or artificial diets and can be trained to transform their inborn feeding habit. To investigate the effect of memory on feeding habit transformation, we compared the reaction time to dead prey fish and the success rate of feeding habit transformation to dead prey fish with training of mandarin fish in the 1st experimental group (trained once and the 2nd experimental group (trained twice. The mandarin fish in the 2nd group had higher success rate of feeding habit transformation (100% than those in the 1st group (67%, and shorter reaction time to dead prey fish (<1 s than those in the 1st group (>1 s. Gene expression of cAMP responsive element binding protein I (Creb I, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (Bdnf, CCAAT enhancer binding protein delta (C/EBPD, fos-related antigen 2 (Fra2, and proto-oncogenes c-fos (c-fos involved in long-term memory formation were significantly increased in the 2nd group after repeated training, and taste 1 receptor member 1 (T1R1, involved in feeding habit formation, was significantly increased in brains of the 2nd group after repeated training. DNA methylation levels at five candidate CpG (cytosine–guanine sites contained in the predicted CpG island in the 5′-flanking region of T1R1 were significantly decreased in brains of the 2nd group compared with that of the 1st group. These results indicated that the repeated training can improve the feeding habit transformation through the memory formation of accepting dead prey fish. DNA methylation of the T1R1 might be a regulatory factor for feeding habit transformation from live prey fish to dead prey fish in mandarin fish.

  8. Climate and life-history evolution in evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): a phylogenetic comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Margaret E K; Hearn, David J; Hahn, William J; Spangle, Jennifer M; Venable, D Lawrence

    2005-09-01

    Evolutionary ecologists have long sought to understand the conditions under which perennial (iteroparous) versus annual (semelparous) plant life histories are favored. We evaluated the idea that aridity and variation in the length of droughts should favor the evolution of an annual life history, both by decreasing adult survival and by increasing the potential for high seedling survival via reduced plant cover. We calculated phylogenetically independent contrasts of climate with respect to life history in a clade of winter-establishing evening primroses (sections Anogra and Kleinia; Oenothera; Onagraceae), which includes seven annuals, 12 perennials, and two variable taxa. Climate variables were quantified from long-term records at weather stations near collection localities. To explicitly account for phylogenetic uncertainty, contrasts were calculated on a random sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian analysis of DNA sequence data. Statements of association are based on comparing the per-tree mean contrast, which has a null expectation of zero, to a set of per-tree mean contrasts calculated on the same trees, after randomizing the climate data. As predicted, increased annual aridity, increased annual potential evapotranspiration, and decreased annual precipitation were associated with transitions to the annual habit, but these trends were not significantly different from the null pattern. Transitions to the annual habit were not significantly associated with increases in one measure of aridity in summer nor with increased summer drought, but they were associated with significantly increased maximum summer temperatures. In winter, increased aridity and decreased precipitation were significantly associated with transitions to the annual habit. Changes in life history were not significantly associated with changes in the coefficient of variation of precipitation, either on an annual or seasonal (summer vs. winter) basis. Though we

  9. Soldier Health Habits and the Metabolically Optimized Brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedl, Karl E; Breivik, Torbjorn J; Carter, Robert; Leyk, Dieter; Opstad, Per Kristian; Taverniers, John; Trousselard, Marion

    2016-11-01

    Human performance enhancement was the subject of a NATO workshop that considered the direct benefits of individual soldier health and fitness habits to brain health and performance. Some of the important health and fitness include physical activity and purposeful exercise, nutritional intake, sleep and rest behaviors, psychological outlook and mindfulness, and other physiologically based systemic challenges such as thermal exposure. These influences were considered in an integrated framework with insights contributed by each of five participating NATO member countries using representative research to highlight relevant interrelationships. Key conclusions are that (1) understanding the neurobiological bases and consequences of personal health behaviors is a priority for soldier performance research, and this also involves long-term brain health consequences to veterans and (2) health and fitness habits have been underappreciated as reliably effective performance enhancers and these should be preferred targets in the development of scientifically based recommendations for soldier brain health and performance. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  10. Deep mantle roots and continental hypsometry: implications for whole-Earth elemental cycling, long-term climate, and the Cambrian explosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. T.

    2016-12-01

    Most of Earth's continents today are above sea level, but the presence of thick packages of ancient sediments on top of the stable cores of continents indicates that continents must have been submerged at least once in their past. Elevations of continents are controlled by the interplay between crustal thickness, mantle root thickness and the temperature of the ambient convecting mantle. The history of a continent begins with mountain building through magmatic or tectonic crustal thickening, during which exhumation of deep-seated igneous and metamorphic rocks are highest. Mountain building is followed by a long interval of subsidence as a result of continued, but decreasing erosion and thermal relaxation, the latter in the form of a growing thermal boundary layer. Subsidence is manifest first as a boring interval in which no sedimentary record is preserved, followed by continent-scale submergence wherein sediments are deposited directly on deep-seated igneous/metamorphic basement, generating a major disconformity. The terminal resting elevation of a mature continent, however, is defined by the temperature of the ambient convecting mantle: below sea level when the mantle is hot and above sea level when the mantle is cold. Using thermobarometric constraints on secular cooling of Earth's mantle, our results suggest that Earth, for most of its history, must have been a water world, with regions of land confined to narrow orogenic belts and oceans characterized by deep basins and shallow continental seas, the latter serving as repositories of sediments and key redox-sensitive biological nutrients, such as phosphorous. Cooling of the Earth led to the gradual and irreversible rise of the continents, culminating in rapid emergence, through fits and starts and possible instabilities in climate, between 500-1000 Ma. Such emergence fundamentally altered marine biogeochemical cycling, continental weathering and the global hydrologic cycle, defining the backdrop for the

  11. Long-term variations in sediment heavy metals of a reservoir with changing trophic states: Implications for the impact of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Qi, Jun; Xia, Xinghui

    2017-12-31

    Two dated sediment cores from the Miyun Reservoir of Beijing in China were analyzed to reconstruct the pollution history of heavy metals including cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn) as well as phosphorus (P). Enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I geo ) were applied to assess the enrichment status of heavy metals. Average EF and I geo values indicated that the studied heavy metals in the sediments mainly originated from non-point source pollution and soil-water erosion, showing low ecological risks. In addition, correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) identified that Cd, Zn, and P were mainly from agricultural diffusion pollution caused by utilization of the phosphate fertilizer; Zn, Ni, and Cr originated from soil erosion. PCA analysis was further conducted to investigate the relationships among meteorological factors, algae-dominant total organic carbon (TOC), and heavy metals. Results showed that algae-dominant TOC had strong positive correlation with temperature, which can be explained by that increased temperature accelerated the growth of algae. Meanwhile the opposite loadings between algae-dominant TOC and heavy metal suggested that primary production played an important role in migration and transformation of metals. Moreover, stepwise multiple regression models showed that Fe was sensitive to temperature, which accounted for approximately 39.0% and 40.1% of the variations in Fe of two sediment cores, respectively. Fe showed significant decreasing trends during the past 50years. Reductive environment of water-sediment interface caused by increasing temperature probably contributed to the restoration of ferric iron, resulting in the release of soluble Fe to overlying waters. Future climate change with elevated temperature and extreme weather events will aggravate the ecological risk of heavy metals in water environment due to the enhanced leaching effect and non-point source pollution as well

  12. Pervasive orbital eccentricities dictate the habitability of extrasolar earths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kita, Ryosuke; Rasio, Frederic; Takeda, Genya

    2010-09-01

    The long-term habitability of Earth-like planets requires low orbital eccentricities. A secular perturbation from a distant stellar companion is a very important mechanism in exciting planetary eccentricities, as many of the extrasolar planetary systems are associated with stellar companions. Although the orbital evolution of an Earth-like planet in a stellar binary system is well understood, the effect of a binary perturbation on a more realistic system containing additional gas-giant planets has been very little studied. Here, we provide analytic criteria confirmed by a large ensemble of numerical integrations that identify the initial orbital parameters leading to eccentric orbits. We show that an extrasolar earth is likely to experience a broad range of orbital evolution dictated by the location of a gas-giant planet, which necessitates more focused studies on the effect of eccentricity on the potential for life.

  13. Habit reversal training for tic disorders in children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piacentini, John; Chang, Susanna

    2005-11-01

    Chronic tic disorders, including Tourette's syndrome (TS), affect approximately .5% of children and adolescents. Although strong evidence exists supporting a neurobiological etiology, operant factors may play a role in the maintenance of tic behaviors. Pharmacological approaches remain the most commonly used intervention for chronic tic disorder in children and adults. Nevertheless, the unpredictable efficacy and serious side effects associated with medication along with parental concerns about long-term medication use in children underlie the need for nonpharmacological interventions for tics in this age group. This article reviews the rationale and evidence base for the use of habit reversal training (HRT), a multicomponent behavioral treatment package, as a treatment for childhood tics. Each of the primary treatment components of HRT is described and implementation is illustrated in case report format. A growing body of data suggests that HRT is a well-tolerated and efficacious intervention for tic disorders in this age group.

  14. Living place significance for Kaunas first year university student habits

    OpenAIRE

    Pajarskaitė, Dovilė

    2014-01-01

    Aim of the study: Investigate students eating habits and availability for healthy nutrition. Objectives: Compare students nutritional habits by comparing their place of living; Find out students nutritional habits that are living in student flats. also eat nearby catering places; Evaluate students that live in Kaunas city of students flats possibility to prepare meals. Methods. Data from 2010 Kohortinis European students living habits was used for Nutritional habits comparison by livi...

  15. The power of habits : Unhealthy snacking behaviour is primarily predicted by habit strength

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, A.A.C.; Adriaanse, M.A.; Evers, C.; de Ridder, D.T.D.

    2012-01-01

    Objective. Although increasing evidence shows the importance of habits in explaining health behaviour, many studies still rely solely on predictors that emphasize the role of conscious intentions. The present study was designed to test the importance of habit strength in explaining unhealthy

  16. Stabilizing Cloud Feedback Dramatically Expands the Habitable Zone of Tidally Locked Planets

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Jun; Cowan, Nicolas B.; Abbot, Dorian S.

    2013-01-01

    The habitable zone (HZ) is the circumstellar region where a planet can sustain surface liquid water. Searching for terrestrial planets in the HZ of nearby stars is the stated goal of ongoing and planned extrasolar planet surveys. Previous estimates of the inner edge of the HZ were based on one-dimensional radiative-convective models. The most serious limitation of these models is the inability to predict cloud behavior. Here we use global climate models with sophisticated cloud schemes to sho...

  17. [Eating habits of patients with severe obesity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reséndiz Barragán, Aída Monserrat; Hernández Altamirano, Sheila Viridiana; Sierra Murguía, Mariana Alejandra; Torres Tamayo, Margarita

    2014-11-30

    Severe obesity is a health problem that has medical, emotional and economic consequences. The etiology of severe obesity is multifactorial; however, it is known that the eating habits represent a major factor in the development of this disease. This study aimed to identify eating patterns and specific habits that need to be changed to achieve weight loss. An observational, descriptive, retrospective and cross-sectional study with 250 candidates for bariatric surgery, 79.2% women and 20.8% men aged 37.7 ± 10.2 years and 44.3 ± 7.7 kg/m2 BMI patients was performed. It was found that "drinking water", "eat faster than most people", "leave the plate empty", "have long fasts", "sweet cravings", and "drinking soda" were the most common habits in patients with severe obesity. The existence of significant differences between the habits of men and women and between BMI strata or groups are also discussed. "Snacking" and "eat until you feel uncomfortable" were significantly different between men and women and "eat by yourself because you feel ashamed of eating with others" was significant between BMI strata. It was concluded that it is important that the treatment of these patients includes assessment techniques and behavior modification aimed at these habits. It is recommended to include in future studies patients with normal weight and overweight as well as the use of instruments with adequate psychometric properties. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  18. Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Deushi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A middle-atmosphere simulation of the past 25 years (from 1980 to 2004 has been performed with a chemistry-climate model (CCM of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI under observed forcings of sea-surface temperature, greenhouse gases, halogens, volcanic aerosols, and solar irradiance variations. The dynamics module of MRI-CCM is a spectral global model truncated triangularly at a maximum wavenumber of 42 with 68 layers extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (about 80 km, wherein the vertical spacing is 500 m from 100 to 10 hPa. The chemistry-transport module treats 51 species with 124 reactions including heterogeneous reactions. Transport of chemical species is based on a hybrid semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is a flux form in the vertical direction and an ordinary semi-Lagrangian form in the horizontal direction. The MRI-CCM used in this study reproduced a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO of about a 20-month period for wind and ozone in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple linear regression analysis with time lags for volcanic aerosols was performed on the zonal-mean quantities of the simulated result to separate the trend, the QBO, the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, the 11-year solar cycle, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO signals. It is found that MRI-CCM can more or less realistically reproduce observed trends of annual mean temperature and ozone, and those of total ozone in each month. MRI-CCM also reproduced the vertical multi-cell structures of tropical temperature, zonal-wind, and ozone associated with the QBO, and the mid-latitude total ozone QBO in each winter hemisphere. Solar irradiance variations of the 11-year cycle were found to affect radiation alone (not photodissociation because of an error in making the photolysis lookup table. Nevertheless, though the heights of the maximum temperature (ozone in the tropics are much higher (lower than observations, MRI-CCM could reproduce the second maxima of temperature and

  19. Global climate convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonis, U.E.

    1991-01-01

    The effort of negotiate a global convention on climate change is one of mankind's great endeavours - and a challenge to economists and development planners. The inherent linkages between climate and the habitability of the earth are increasingly well recognized, and a convention could help to ensure that conserving the environment and developing the economy in the future must go hand in hand. Due to growing environmental concern the United Nations General Assembly has set into motion an international negotiating process for a framework convention on climate change. One the major tasks in these negotiations is how to share the duties in reducing climate relevant gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), between the industrial and the developing countries. The results and proposals could be among the most far-reaching ever for socio-economic development, indeed for global security and survival itself. While the negotiations will be about climate and protection of the atmosphere, they will be on fundamental global changes in energy policies, forestry, transport, technology, and on development pathways with low greenhouse gas emissions. Some of these aspects of a climate convention, particularly the distributional options and consequences for the North-South relations, are addressed in this chapter. (orig.)

  20. Geophysical and atmospheric evolution of habitable planets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammer, Helmut; Selsis, Frank; Chassefière, Eric; Breuer, Doris; Griessmeier, Jean-Mathias; Kulikov, Yuri N; Erkaev, Nikolai V; Khodachenko, Maxim L; Biernat, Helfried K; Leblanc, Francois; Kallio, Esa; Lundin, Richard; Westall, Frances; Bauer, Siegfried J; Beichman, Charles; Danchi, William; Eiroa, Carlos; Fridlund, Malcolm; Gröller, Hannes; Hanslmeier, Arnold; Hausleitner, Walter; Henning, Thomas; Herbst, Tom; Kaltenegger, Lisa; Léger, Alain; Leitzinger, Martin; Lichtenegger, Herbert I M; Liseau, René; Lunine, Jonathan; Motschmann, Uwe; Odert, Petra; Paresce, Francesco; Parnell, John; Penny, Alan; Quirrenbach, Andreas; Rauer, Heike; Röttgering, Huub; Schneider, Jean; Spohn, Tilman; Stadelmann, Anja; Stangl, Günter; Stam, Daphne; Tinetti, Giovanna; White, Glenn J

    2010-01-01

    The evolution of Earth-like habitable planets is a complex process that depends on the geodynamical and geophysical environments. In particular, it is necessary that plate tectonics remain active over billions of years. These geophysically active environments are strongly coupled to a planet's host star parameters, such as mass, luminosity and activity, orbit location of the habitable zone, and the planet's initial water inventory. Depending on the host star's radiation and particle flux evolution, the composition in the thermosphere, and the availability of an active magnetic dynamo, the atmospheres of Earth-like planets within their habitable zones are differently affected due to thermal and nonthermal escape processes. For some planets, strong atmospheric escape could even effect the stability of the atmosphere.

  1. Translational Research on Habit and Alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Theresa H; Shnitko, Tatiana A; Robinson, Donita L; Boettiger, Charlotte A

    2016-03-01

    Habitual actions enable efficient daily living, but they can also contribute to pathological behaviors that resistant change, such as alcoholism. Habitual behaviors are learned actions that appear goal-directed but are in fact no longer under the control of the action's outcome. Instead, these actions are triggered by stimuli, which may be exogenous or interoceptive, discrete or contextual. A major hallmark characteristic of alcoholism is continued alcohol use despite serious negative consequences. In essence, although the outcome of alcohol seeking and drinking is dramatically devalued, these actions persist, often triggered by environmental cues associated with alcohol use. Thus, alcoholism meets the definition of an initially goal-directed behavior that converts to a habit-based process. Habit and alcohol have been well investigated in rodent models, with comparatively less research in non-human primates and people. This review focuses on translational research on habit and alcohol with an emphasis on cross-species methodology and neural circuitry.

  2. Environmental Signatures for Habitability: What to Measure and How to Rank the Habitability Potential of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrad, Pamela G.; Eigenbrode, Jennifer L.; Mahaffy, Paul M.; Steele, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    The environmental signatures for habitability are not necessarily biosignatures, even though on Earth, they are definitive proof of habitability. It is the constant overprint of the chemical signatures of life that makes it difficult to recognize the chemical and physical properties of a potentially habitable environment as distinct from an inhabited one. Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) will soon embark on a mission to Mars to assess its past or present habitability, so it is useful to examine how we measure habitability on Earth and prepare for how that approach may differ for Mars. This exercise includes: (a) articulation of fundamental assumptions about habitability, (b) an inventory of factors that affect habitability, (c) development of metrics, measurement approach and implementation, and (d) a new classification scheme for planetary habitability that goes beyond the binary "yes" or "no." There may be dozens of factors that affect habitability and they can be weighted as a function of specific environment. However a robotic, in situ investigation even on Earth has constraints that prevent the measurement of every environmental factor, so metrics must be reduced to the most relevant subset, given available time, cost, technical feasibility and scientific importance. Many of the factors could be measured with a combination of orbital data and the MSL payload. We propose that, at a minimum, a designation of high habitability potential requires the following conditions be met: (a) thermally stable with respect to extremes and frequency of fluctuation, (b) has more than one energy source, (c) sufficient chemical diversity to make compounds with covalent and hydrogen bonding, (d) can moderate ionizing radiation enough to allow a stable or evolving pool of organic molecules, (e) must have water or other high quality polar solvent, (f) must be able to renew chemical resources (e.g., plate tectonics, volcanism or something else we haven't envisioned). A measurement

  3. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James Houseworth

    2001-01-01

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

  4. Exploring Mars for Evidence of Habitable Environments and Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    DesMarais, David J.

    2014-01-01

    The climate of Mars has been more similar to that of Earth than has the climate of any other planet in our Solar System. But Mars still provides a valuable alternative example of how planetary processes and environments can affect the potential presence of life elsewhere. For example, although Mars also differentiated very early into a core, mantle and crust, it then evolved mostly if not completely without plate tectonics and has lost most of its early atmosphere. The Martian crust has been more stable than that of Earth, thus it has probably preserved a more complete record of its earliest history. Orbital observations determined that near-surface water was once pervasive. Orbiters have identified the following diverse aqueous sedimentary deposits: layered phyllosilicates, phyllosilicates in intracrater fans, plains sediments potentially harboring evaporitic minerals, deep phyllosilicates, carbonate-bearing deposits, intracrater clay-sulfate deposits, Meridiani-type layered deposits, valles-type layered deposits, hydrated silica-bearing deposits, and gypsum plains. These features, together with evidence of more vigorous past geologic activity, indicate that early climates were wetter and perhaps also somewhat warmer. The denser atmosphere that was required for liquid water to be stable on the surface also provided more substantial protection from radiation. Whereas ancient climates might have favored habitable environments at least in some localities, clearly much of the Martian surface for most of its history has been markedly less favorable for life. The combination of dry conditions, oxidizing surface environments and typically low rates of sedimentation are not conducive to the preservation of evidence of ancient environments and any biota. Thus a strategy is required whereby candidate sites are first identified and then characterized for their potential to preserve evidence of past habitable environments. Rovers are then sent to explore the most promising

  5. What is the Climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D.

    2009-04-01

    Although meteorology and climatology are increasingly considered to be distinct sciences, the actual boundary between "climate scales" and "meteorological scales" is not clear and there are no universally accepted definitions. It is still hard to improve upon the old adage "the climate is what you expect, the weather is what you get". For example [Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, 2005], the National Academy of Science essentially accepts this ("Climate is conventionally defined as the long-term statistics of the weather") proposing only to expand the definition of climate to encompass the oceanic and terrestrial spheres as well as chemical components of the atmosphere. However the weather itself has nontrivial statistics so that the key weather/climate distinction depend on apparently subjective distinction between long-term and short-term statistics. In this talk, we give an objective basis to the weather/climate distinction with the help of an anisotropic space-time turbulence theory and both lidar satellite radiances, in situ spectra and numerical models of the atmosphere and reanalyses. We show that the latter accurately follow the predictions of multiplicative cascade models up to about 7-10 days. This marks the beginning of a weather/climate transition region which extends up to the cascade outer scale of about 20-30 days (depending somewhat on the atmospheric field), after which the climate regime begins. We bolster this interpretation by empirically constructing space-time (Stommel) diagrammes; we obtain near linear relations between time and (horizontal) space and theoretically predicted power law relations between the vertical and time up until the end of the weather regime (~10000 km in the horizontal, ~10 km in the vertical, ~10 days in time). We discuss the implications for weather, climate and climate trends.

  6. The automatic component of habit in health behavior: habit as cue-contingent automaticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orbell, Sheina; Verplanken, Bas

    2010-07-01

    Habit might be usefully characterized as a form of automaticity that involves the association of a cue and a response. Three studies examined habitual automaticity in regard to different aspects of the cue-response relationship characteristic of unhealthy and healthy habits. In each study, habitual automaticity was assessed by the Self-Report Habit Index (SRHI). In Study 1 SRHI scores correlated with attentional bias to smoking cues in a Stroop task. Study 2 examined the ability of a habit cue to elicit an unwanted habit response. In a prospective field study, habitual automaticity in relation to smoking when drinking alcohol in a licensed public house (pub) predicted the likelihood of cigarette-related action slips 2 months later after smoking in pubs had become illegal. In Study 3 experimental group participants formed an implementation intention to floss in response to a specified situational cue. Habitual automaticity of dental flossing was rapidly enhanced compared to controls. The studies provided three different demonstrations of the importance of cues in the automatic operation of habits. Habitual automaticity assessed by the SRHI captured aspects of a habit that go beyond mere frequency or consistency of the behavior. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  8. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...

  9. Efeito de um programa misto de intervenção nutricional e exercício físico sobre a composição corporal e os hábitos alimentares de mulheres obesas em climatério The effects of a mixed program of nutritional intervention and physical exercise on body composition and feeding habits of obese climacteric women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita de Cássia de Assunção Monteiro

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Foi avaliar o efeito de programa misto de intervenção nutricional e exercício físico sobre a composição corporal e hábitos alimentares de mulheres obesas em climatério. MÉTODOS: Trabalhou-se com 2 grupos de 15 pessoas por 40 semanas: Grupo Dieta (intervenção nutricional e Grupo Exercício (intervenção nutricional e exercício. RESULTADO: As reduções do peso (-2,3kg para Grupo Dieta e -5,3kg para o Grupo Exercício e da circunferência da cintura (-4,8cm para Grupo Dieta e -7,6cm para Grupo Exercício, foram maiores para o Grupo Exercício. Foi verificada evolução positiva na classificação do Índice de Massa Corporal para ambos os grupos, sendo que o Grupo Exercício respondeu melhor ao tratamento. O padrão alimentar foi considerado monótono e com baixo consumo de alimentos regionais. CONCLUSÃO: O programa foi efetivo para perda de peso, em maior intensidade na presença de exercício. A educação alimentar proposta foi capaz de acarretar mudanças nos hábitos alimentares.OBJECTIVE: The effects of a mixed program of nutrition intervention and physical exercise on body composition and feeding habits were evaluated in obese climacteric women. METHODS: Thirty participants were randomly assigned in 2 groups during 40 weeks: Diet Group (nutritional intervention and Exercise Group (nutritional intervention and exercise. RESULTS: Weight reductions (Diet Group 2,3kg/Exercise Group -5,3kg and waist circunference (Diet Group -4,8cm/Exercise Group 7,6cm were greater in Exercise Group. A positive evolution was noticed in the Body Mass Index in both groups, with Exercise Group having better answer to treatment. It was observed a monotonous feeding pattern and low compliance to the consumption of regional typical foods. CONCLUSION: We concluded that the program was effective for weight loss at a higher intensity in the presence of exercise and the feeding education was able to modify the feeding habits.

  10. THE HABITABLE ZONE OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vladilo, Giovanni; Murante, Giuseppe; Silva, Laura [INAF-Trieste Astronomical Observatory, Trieste (Italy); Provenzale, Antonello [Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate-CNR, Torino (Italy); Ferri, Gaia; Ragazzini, Gregorio, E-mail: vladilo@oats.inaf.it [Department of Physics, University of Trieste, Trieste (Italy)

    2013-04-10

    As a contribution to the study of the habitability of extrasolar planets, we implemented a one-dimensional energy balance model (EBM), the simplest seasonal model of planetary climate, with new prescriptions for most physical quantities. Here we apply our EBM to investigate the surface habitability of planets with an Earth-like atmospheric composition but different levels of surface pressure. The habitability, defined as the mean fraction of the planet's surface on which liquid water could exist, is estimated from the pressure-dependent liquid water temperature range, taking into account seasonal and latitudinal variations of surface temperature. By running several thousands of EBM simulations we generated a map of the habitable zone (HZ) in the plane of the orbital semi-major axis, a, and surface pressure, p, for planets in circular orbits around a Sun-like star. As pressure increases, the HZ becomes broader, with an increase of 0.25 AU in its radial extent from p = 1/3 to 3 bar. At low pressure, the habitability is low and varies with a; at high pressure, the habitability is high and relatively constant inside the HZ. We interpret these results in terms of the pressure dependence of the greenhouse effect, the efficiency of horizontal heat transport, and the extent of the liquid water temperature range. Within the limits discussed in the paper, the results can be extended to planets in eccentric orbits around non-solar-type stars. The main characteristics of the pressure-dependent HZ are modestly affected by variations of planetary properties, particularly at high pressure.

  11. THE HABITABLE ZONE OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladilo, Giovanni; Murante, Giuseppe; Silva, Laura; Provenzale, Antonello; Ferri, Gaia; Ragazzini, Gregorio

    2013-01-01

    As a contribution to the study of the habitability of extrasolar planets, we implemented a one-dimensional energy balance model (EBM), the simplest seasonal model of planetary climate, with new prescriptions for most physical quantities. Here we apply our EBM to investigate the surface habitability of planets with an Earth-like atmospheric composition but different levels of surface pressure. The habitability, defined as the mean fraction of the planet's surface on which liquid water could exist, is estimated from the pressure-dependent liquid water temperature range, taking into account seasonal and latitudinal variations of surface temperature. By running several thousands of EBM simulations we generated a map of the habitable zone (HZ) in the plane of the orbital semi-major axis, a, and surface pressure, p, for planets in circular orbits around a Sun-like star. As pressure increases, the HZ becomes broader, with an increase of 0.25 AU in its radial extent from p = 1/3 to 3 bar. At low pressure, the habitability is low and varies with a; at high pressure, the habitability is high and relatively constant inside the HZ. We interpret these results in terms of the pressure dependence of the greenhouse effect, the efficiency of horizontal heat transport, and the extent of the liquid water temperature range. Within the limits discussed in the paper, the results can be extended to planets in eccentric orbits around non-solar-type stars. The main characteristics of the pressure-dependent HZ are modestly affected by variations of planetary properties, particularly at high pressure.

  12. The Effect of Varying Atmospheric Pressure upon Habitability and Biosignatures of Earth-like Planets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keles, Engin; Grenfell, John Lee; Godolt, Mareike; Stracke, Barbara; Rauer, Heike

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the possible climatic conditions on rocky extrasolar planets, and thereby their potential habitability, is one of the major subjects of exoplanet research. Determining how the climate, as well as potential atmospheric biosignatures, changes under different conditions is a key aspect when studying Earth-like exoplanets. One important property is the atmospheric mass, hence pressure and its influence on the climatic conditions. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to understand the influence of atmospheric mass on climate, hence habitability, and the spectral appearance of planets with Earth-like, that is, N 2 -O 2 dominated, atmospheres orbiting the Sun at 1 AU. This work utilizes a 1D coupled, cloud-free, climate-photochemical atmospheric column model; varies atmospheric surface pressure from 0.5 to 30 bar; and investigates temperature and key species profiles, as well as emission and brightness temperature spectra in a range between 2 and 20 μm. Increasing the surface pressure up to 4 bar leads to an increase in the surface temperature due to increased greenhouse warming. Above this point, Rayleigh scattering dominates, and the surface temperature decreases, reaching surface temperatures below 273 K (approximately at ∼34 bar surface pressure). For ozone, nitrous oxide, water, methane, and carbon dioxide, the spectral response either increases with surface temperature or pressure depending on the species. Masking effects occur, for example, for the bands of the biosignatures ozone and nitrous oxide by carbon dioxide, which could be visible in low carbon dioxide atmospheres. Key Words: Planetary habitability and biosignatures-Atmospheres-Radiative transfer. Astrobiology 18, 116-132.

  13. Breaking bad habits by improving executive function in individuals with obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allom, Vanessa; Mullan, Barbara; Smith, Evelyn; Hay, Phillipa; Raman, Jayanthi

    2018-04-16

    Two primary factors that contribute to obesity are unhealthy eating and sedentary behavior. These behaviors are particularly difficult to change in the long-term because they are often enacted habitually. Cognitive Remediation Therapy has been modified and applied to the treatment of obesity (CRT-O) with preliminary results of a randomized controlled trial demonstrating significant weight loss and improvements in executive function. The objective of this study was to conduct a secondary data analysis of the CRT-O trial to evaluate whether CRT-O reduces unhealthy habits that contribute to obesity via improvements in executive function. Eighty participants with obesity were randomized to CRT-O or control. Measures of executive function (Wisconsin Card Sort Task and Trail Making Task) and unhealthy eating and sedentary behavior habits were administered at baseline, post-intervention and at 3 month follow-up. Participants receiving CRT-O demonstrated improvements in both measures of executive function and reductions in both unhealthy habit outcomes compared to control. Mediation analyses revealed that change in one element of executive function performance (Wisconsin Card Sort Task perseverance errors) mediated the effect of CRT-O on changes in both habit outcomes. These results suggest that the effectiveness of CRT-O may result from the disruption of unhealthy habits made possible by improvements in executive function. In particular, it appears that cognitive flexibility, as measured by the Wisconsin Card Sort task, is a key mechanism in this process. Improving cognitive flexibility may enable individuals to capitalise on interruptions in unhealthy habits by adjusting their behavior in line with their weight loss goals rather than persisting with an unhealthy choice. The RCT was registered with the Australian New Zealand Registry of Clinical Trials (trial id: ACTRN12613000537752 ).

  14. Sleep Habits and Nighttime Texting among Adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garmy, Pernilla; Ward, Teresa M.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine sleep habits (i.e., bedtimes and rising times) and their association with nighttime text messaging in 15- to 17-year-old adolescents. This cross-sectional study analyzed data from a web-based survey of adolescent students attending secondary schools in southern Sweden (N = 278, 50% female). Less than 8 hr of…

  15. Survey of licensee control room habitability practices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boland, J.F.; Brookshire, R.L.; Danielson, W.F.; Driscoll, J.W.; Graham, E.D.; McConnell, R.J.; Thompson, V.N.

    1985-04-01

    This document presents the results of a survey of Licensee control-room-habitability practices. The survey is part of a comprehensive program plan instituted in August 1983 by the NRC to respond to ongoing questions from the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS). The emphasis of this survey was to determine by field review the control-room habitability practices at three different plants, one of which is still under construction and scheduled to receive an operating license in 1986. The other two plants are currently operating, having received operating licenses in the mid-1970's and early 1980's. The major finding of this survey is that despite the fact that the latest control-room-habitability systems have become larger and more complex than earlier systems surveyed, the latest systems do not appear to be functionally superior. The major recommendation of this report is to consolidate into a single NRC document, based upon a comprehensive systems engineering approach, the pertinent criteria for control-room-habitability design

  16. Control room habitability study - findings and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driscoll, J.W.

    1987-01-01

    The Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS) has raised a number of concerns related to control room habitability and has recommended actions which they believe could alleviate these concerns. As a result of the ACRS's concerns, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) in conjunction with the Offices of Research and Inspection and Enforcement, and the NRC regional offices, embarked upon a program to reevaluate Control Room Habitability. Argonne National Laboratory was contracted by the NRC to perform a Control Room Habitability Study on twelve licensed power reactors. The plants selected for the study were chosen based upon architect engineer, nuclear steam system supplier, utility, and plant location. The major findings of this study are included in this report along with generic recommendations of the review team that apply to control room HVAC systems. Although the study is not complete, at the time of publication of this report, the results obtained to date should be useful to persons responsible for Control Room Habitability in evaluating their own systems

  17. Heubach Smoking Habits and Attitudes Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heubach, Philip Gilbert

    This Questionnaire, consisting of 74 yes/no, multiple choice, and completion items, is designed to assess smoking practices and attitudes toward smoking in high school students. Questions pertain to personal data, family smoking practices and attitudes, personal smoking habits, reasons for smoking or not smoking, and opinions on smoking. Detailed…

  18. Curbing promiscuous habits among Nigerians through religious ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The prevalence of inappropriate sexual habit among Nigerian citizens today poses a moral challenge. The idea seems to be that since everybody does it, there is probably nothing wrong with it. It is surprising that many young men and women give reason to justify this evil act. The act of prostitution, adultery and premarital ...

  19. Essays on habit formation and inflation hedging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, Y.

    2014-01-01

    The thesis consists of four chapters. Chapter 1 reviews recent contributions on habit formation in the literature and investigates its implications for investors. Chapter 2 revisits the “Floor-Leverage” rule for investors with ratchet consumption preference proposed by Scott and Watson (2011). It

  20. Recommendations for a Habitability Data Base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illinois Univ., Urbana. Library Research Center.

    A prototype Habitability Data Base was developed for the United States Army Corps of Engineers. From a review of selected Army documents, standards in the form of goals or architectural criteria were identified as significant to man-environment relations (MER). A search of appropriate information systems was conducted to retrieve a minimum of 500…

  1. Scribal Habits at the Tebtunis Temple Library

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryholt, Kim

    2018-01-01

    the temple library itself, and it can be shown that some features are closely linked to specific scribes and their personal habits. The many distinctive hands attested in the library leads to the related question of paleography and orthography and the extent to which these factors may help to determinative...

  2. Relationship of Study Habits with Mathematics Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odiri, Onoshakpokaiye E.

    2015-01-01

    The study examined the relationship of study habits of students and their achievement in mathematics. The method used for the study was correlation design. A sample of 500 students were randomly selected from 25 public secondary schools in Delta Central Senatorial District, Delta State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were drawn to gather data on…

  3. Reading Habit Promotion in ASEAN Libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangkaeo, Somsong

    This paper describes the activities of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) libraries have undertaken to promote reading by increasing awareness among their people. First, factors limiting reading habits in ASEAN libraries are addressed, including: we are not a reading society, but a chatting society; the management of "3…

  4. Habits of the Scaly Anteater from Java

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jentink, F.A.

    1903-01-01

    Mr. Edward Jacobson from Semarang (Java), one of the zealed correspondents of our Museum, communicated me the other day some observations made by himself on living animals. Especially of a high scientific interest seemed to me what he wrote concerning the habits and behavior of a specimen of the

  5. DIETS/DIETARY HABITS AND CERTAIN GASTROINTESTINAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Physiology Department, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Abia State ... of diet and dietary habits including fibres, food additives and preservatives on the aetiology of gastric cancers ... beneficial effects on the G.I tract (Howe et al, ...... Food poisoning: Diseases due to .... Obakpite, P. O., Onuminya, J. E., Nwana, E. J..

  6. Mushroom bodies regulate habit formation in Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brembs, Björn

    2009-08-25

    To make good decisions, we evaluate past choices to guide later decisions. In most situations, we have the opportunity to simultaneously learn about both the consequences of our choice (i.e., operantly) and the stimuli associated with correct or incorrect choices (i.e., classically). Interestingly, in many species, including humans, these learning processes occasionally lead to irrational decisions. An extreme case is the habitual drug user consistently administering the drug despite the negative consequences, but we all have experience with our own, less severe habits. The standard animal model employs a combination of operant and classical learning components to bring about habit formation in rodents. After extended training, these animals will press a lever even if the outcome associated with lever-pressing is no longer desired. In this study, experiments with wild-type and transgenic flies revealed that a prominent insect neuropil, the mushroom bodies (MBs), regulates habit formation in flies by inhibiting the operant learning system when a predictive stimulus is present. This inhibition enables generalization of the classical memory and prevents premature habit formation. Extended training in wild-type flies produced a phenocopy of MB-impaired flies, such that generalization was abolished and goal-directed actions were transformed into habitual responses.

  7. Stress prompts habit behavior in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwabe, Lars; Wolf, Oliver T

    2009-06-03

    Instrumental behavior can be controlled by goal-directed action-outcome and habitual stimulus-response processes that are supported by anatomically distinct brain systems. Based on previous findings showing that stress modulates the interaction of "cognitive" and "habit" memory systems, we asked in the presented study whether stress may coordinate goal-directed and habit processes in instrumental learning. For this purpose, participants were exposed to stress (socially evaluated cold pressor test) or a control condition before they were trained to perform two instrumental actions that were associated with two distinct food outcomes. After training, one of these food outcomes was selectively devalued as subjects were saturated with that food. Next, subjects were presented the two instrumental actions in extinction. Stress before training in the instrumental task rendered participants' behavior insensitive to the change in the value of the food outcomes, that is stress led to habit performance. Moreover, stress reduced subjects' explicit knowledge of the action-outcome contingencies. These results demonstrate for the first time that stress promotes habits at the expense of goal-directed performance in humans.

  8. HABITABLE ZONES AROUND MAIN-SEQUENCE STARS: NEW ESTIMATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar; Ramirez, Ramses; Kasting, James F. [Department of Geosciences, Penn State University, 443 Deike Building, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Eymet, Vincent [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Bordeaux, Universite de Bordeaux 1, UMR 5804, F-33270 Floirac (France); Robinson, Tyler D.; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn; Meadows, Victoria [NASA Astrobiology Institute' s Virtual Planetary Laboratory (United States); Mahadevan, Suvrath; Terrien, Ryan C.; Deshpande, Rohit [Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States)

    2013-03-10

    Identifying terrestrial planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of other stars is one of the primary goals of ongoing radial velocity (RV) and transit exoplanet surveys and proposed future space missions. Most current estimates of the boundaries of the HZ are based on one-dimensional (1D), cloud-free, climate model calculations by Kasting et al. However, this model used band models that were based on older HITRAN and HITEMP line-by-line databases. The inner edge of the HZ in the Kasting et al. model was determined by loss of water, and the outer edge was determined by the maximum greenhouse provided by a CO{sub 2} atmosphere. A conservative estimate for the width of the HZ from this model in our solar system is 0.95-1.67 AU. Here an updated 1D radiative-convective, cloud-free climate model is used to obtain new estimates for HZ widths around F, G, K, and M stars. New H{sub 2}O and CO{sub 2} absorption coefficients, derived from the HITRAN 2008 and HITEMP 2010 line-by-line databases, are important improvements to the climate model. According to the new model, the water-loss (inner HZ) and maximum greenhouse (outer HZ) limits for our solar system are at 0.99 and 1.70 AU, respectively, suggesting that the present Earth lies near the inner edge. Additional calculations are performed for stars with effective temperatures between 2600 and 7200 K, and the results are presented in parametric form, making them easy to apply to actual stars. The new model indicates that, near the inner edge of the HZ, there is no clear distinction between runaway greenhouse and water-loss limits for stars with T{sub eff} {approx}< 5000 K, which has implications for ongoing planet searches around K and M stars. To assess the potential habitability of extrasolar terrestrial planets, we propose using stellar flux incident on a planet rather than equilibrium temperature. This removes the dependence on planetary (Bond) albedo, which varies depending on the host star's spectral type. We suggest

  9. The Carbonate-Silicate Cycle on Earth-like Planets Near The End Of Their Habitable Lifetimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rushby, A. J.; Mills, B.; Johnson, M.; Claire, M.

    2016-12-01

    The terrestrial cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphic outgassing buffers atmospheric CO2 and global climate over geological time on Earth. To first order, the operation of this cycle is assumed to occur on Earth-like planets in the orbit of other main-sequence stars in the galaxy that exhibit similar continent/ocean configurations. This has important implications for studies of planetary habitability, atmospheric and climatic evolution, and our understanding of the potential distribution of life in the Universe. We present results from a simple biogeochemical carbon cycle model developed to investigate the operation of the carbonate-silicate cycle under conditions of differing planet mass and position within the radiative habitable zone. An active carbonate-silicate cycle does extend the length of a planet's habitable period through the regulation of the CO2 greenhouse. However, the breakdown of the negative feedback between temperature, pCO2, and weathering rates towards the end of a planet's habitable lifespan results in a transitory regime of `carbon starvation' that would inhibit the ability of oxygenic photoautotrophs to metabolize, and result in the collapse of any putative biosphere supported by these organisms, suggesting an earlier limit for the initiation of inhabitable conditions than when considering temperature alone. This conclusion stresses the importance of considering the full suite of planetary properties when determining potential habitability. A small sample of exoplanets was tested using this model, and the length of their habitable periods were found to be significantly longer than that of the Earth, primarily as a function of the differential rates of stellar evolution expected from their host stars. Furthermore, we carried out statistical analysis of a series of model input parameters, determining that both the mass of the planet and the sensitivity of seafloor weathering processes to dissolved CO2 exhibit significant controls on the

  10. New technologies for control room habitability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lahti, G.P.; Muraida, J.E.; Perchiazzi, W.T.; Harden, P.A.

    1994-01-01

    Older nuclear power plants typically considered only a nominal amount of unfiltered inleakage (typically 10 cfm) impacting their postaccident control room habitability. However, recent measurements of unfiltered inleakage show values in excess of the nominal 10 cfm. A reassessment for two of these ''older'' stations has been completed recently to show that the measured inleakage did not jeopardize the safety of the control room occupants. Recent concerns at the Zion Station and the Palisades Station about control room habitability in the event of a loss-of-coolant accident have led to an extensive effort to increase control room habitability margin. The heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) system servicing each of the control rooms has the potential for unfiltered in-leakage through many locations. For example, at the Palisades Station, the current limiting control room habitability analysis allows for 25 cfm unfiltered in-leakage through its normal outside air intake louvered isolation dampers during emergency mode into the control room envelope. This leakage value was not thought to be achievable with the existing as-built configuration. Repairing the system was considered a potential solution; however, this would be costly and could negatively affect plant operation. In addition, the system would still be required to meet the low specified unfi