WorldWideScience

Sample records for long-term secular trends

  1. Cadmium-related mortality and long-term secular trends in the cadmium body burden of an environmentally exposed population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrot, Tim S; Van Hecke, Etienne; Thijs, Lutgarde; Richart, Tom; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Jin, Yu; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Roels, Harry A; Staessen, Jan A

    2008-12-01

    Few population studies have reported on the long-term changes in the internal cadmium dose and simultaneously occurring mortality. We monitored blood cadmium (BCd), 24-hr urinary cadmium (UCd), and mortality in an environmentally exposed population. Starting from 1985, we followed BCd (until 2003), UCd (until 1996), and mortality (until 2007) among 476 and 480 subjects, randomly recruited from low- exposure areas (LEA) and high-exposure areas (HEA). The last cadmium-producing plant in the HEA closed in 2002. From 1985-1989 to 1991-1996, BCd decreased by 40.3% and 18.9% in the LEA and HEA, respectively (p fashion without threshold.

  2. Loners, Groupies, and Long-term Eccentricity (and Inclination) Behavior: Insights from Secular Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Laerhoven, Christa L.

    2015-05-01

    Considering the secular dynamics of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Secular interactions are those that don't involve knowing where a planet is along its orbit, and they dominate when planets are not involved in mean motion resonances. These interactions exchange angular momentum among the planets, evolving their eccentricities and inclinations. To second order in the planets' eccentricities and inclinations, the eccentricity and inclination perturbations are decoupled. Given the right variable choice, the relevant differential equations are linear and thus the eccentricity and inclination behaviors can be described as a sum of eigenmodes. Since the underlying structure of the secular eigenmodes can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in exoplanet systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. I have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods. Using this catalog of secular character, I will discuss the prevalence of dynamically grouped planets ('groupies') versus dynamically uncoupled planets ('loners') and how this relates to the exoplanets' long-term eccentricity and inclination behavior. I will also touch on the distribution of the secular eigenfreqiencies.

  3. Emission allowances -- Long-term price trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennox, F.H.

    1994-01-01

    Estimated trends in emission allowance (EA) values have been of interest to all those affected by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 since it became law in 1990. The authors published estimates of the values of EAs in December 1991, and revised their estimate in November 1992. The summary trends of the 1992 estimate is shown here. General estimates such as these are no longer useful. Everyone directly involved in complying with the Act or in buying and selling allowances has developed their own outlook on EA values. Many recent trades have been publicized. The prices from the first auction are also well known. Therefore this article is concerned only with what might happening the long-run. Once Phase 2 compliance is essentially complete and emissions roughly match Emission Allowance allocations of some 9.8 million tons annually, what pressures will there be on prices? What will be the direction of values after Phase 2 is in balance?

  4. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of temperature ... CGCM3; HadCM3; modified Mann–Kendall test; statistical analysis; Sutlej basin. ... Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 ...

  5. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  6. Gender-Based Violence in India: Long-Term Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and…

  7. The Geomagnetic Control Concept of The Ionospheric Long- Term Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikhailov, A. V.

    The geomagnetic control concept has been developed to explain long-term trends of the electron concentration in the F2 and E ionospheric regions. Periods with negative and positive foF2, hmF2 and foE trends correspond to the periods of increasing or decreasing geomagnetic activity with the turning points around the end of 1950s, 1960s, and 1980s where trends change their signs. Strong latitudinal and diurnal variations revealed for the foF2 and hmF2 trends can be explained by neutral composition, temperature and thermospheric wind changes. Particle precipitation is important in the auroral zone. The newly proposed concept proceeds from a natural origin of the F2-layer trends rather than an artificial one related to the greenhouse effect. Using the proposed method a very long-term foF2 and foE trends related with general increase of geomagnetic activity in the 20th century has been revealed for the first time. The firstly revealed relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity is due to nitric oxide variations at the E-region heights. This "natural" relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity breaks down around 1970 on many stations presumably due to chemical polution of the upper atmosphere. The increasing rate of rocket and satellite launchings in the late 1960s is considered as a reason.

  8. The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsao, Jeffrey Y. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fouquet, Roger [London School of Economics and Political Science (United Kingdom); Schubert, E. Fred [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.

  9. Long-term trends in the total electron content

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Urbář, Jaroslav; Kozubek, Michal

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 16 (2017), s. 8186-8172 ISSN 0094-8276 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-03909S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : total electron content * long-term trend * solar control Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 4.253, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075063/full

  10. Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Aude

    2017-12-01

    Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.

  11. LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE SOLAR WIND PROTON MEASUREMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J. [Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX (United States); DeForest, Craig E. [Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2016-11-20

    We examine the long-term time evolution (1965–2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature ( T {sub p}) and speed ( V {sub p}) and between the proton density ( n {sub p}) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature–speed ( T {sub p}– V {sub p}) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density–speed ( n {sub p}– V {sub p}) relationship is not linear like the T {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship, we perform power-law fits for n {sub p}– V {sub p}. The exponent (steepness in the n {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n {sub p} for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n {sub p} is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n {sub p} variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n {sub p}– V {sub p} exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T {sub p} and V {sub p} data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

  12. 20 year long term air quality trends in Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luria, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Israeli air monitoring network was established in the mid 1990's with dozens of measuring sites near most populated areas. During these past 20 years the Israel economy has increased significantly. The population grew by 30%, energy consumption and power generation by more than 40% and the number of motor vehicles increased by nearly 50%. Most of the fossil energy is consumed by the electric power industry that has changed immensely during this period. Until the early 2000's the vast majority of the electricity was generated from coal and heavy oil. However, during the last ten years natural gas has gradually becomes the major source for power generation and for most of the heavy industry. In the present study we examined the impact of these economic trends on the major criteria air pollution parameters; O3, NOx, SO2 and PM10. The analyses was based on the long term trend of median value (50th percentile) and the 90th percentile. The results revealed that SO2 levels throughout the country decreased to very low levels, with the 90th percentile near the detection limit. The levels of PM10, that are relatively high compare with other global regions, did not show any trend during the 20 year period. This is consistent with the fact that most particulate matter results from long range transport of dust from the surrounding deserts. The long term trend of NOx indicates a gradual and steady increase at most measuring sites, which is consistent with the increase of fossil fuel consumption. The increase in NOx levels is most likely the cause for the significant increase in O3 levels found at most sites in a few of them to levels that are considered as an environmental hazard.

  13. Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laštovička, Jan

    2017-04-01

    The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

  14. Long-Term Seafloor Electromagnetic Observation in the Northwest Pacific May Detect the Vector Geomagnetic Secular Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Toh

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Sea Floor ElectroMagnetic Stations (SFEMSs are now operating at two deep seafloor sites called the 'WPB' and the 'NWP' in the West Philippine Basin and the Northwest Pacific Basin, respectively. One of the main objectives of the SFEMSs is to detect the geomagnetic secular variations on the deep seafloor where long-term geomagnetic observations have not so far been achieved. SFEMSs can measure the absolute geomagnetic total force as well as the geomagnetic vector field with precise attitude monitoring systems. The vector geomagnetic time-series that was observed for more than 5 years revealed that the westward drift of the equatorial dipole dominates in the geomagnetic secular variation at the NWP.

  15. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Philandras

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

    The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

  16. PEDIATRIC FITNESS: SECULAR TRENDS AND GEOGRAPHIC VARIABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant R. Tomkinson

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available DESCRIPTION This book describes and discusses children's physical capacity in terms of aerobic and anaerobic power generation according to secular trends and geographic variability. PURPOSE To discuss the controversial issue of whether present day's children and adolescents are fitter than their equals of the past and whether they are fitter if they live in the more prosperous countries. AUDIENCE Pediatricians, medical practitioners, physical educators, exercise and/or sport scientists, exercise physiologists, personal trainers and graduate students in relevant fields will find this book helpful when dealing with contemporary trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. FEATURES The volume starts by examining the general picture on children fitness by the editors. The individual chapter's authors discuses the data gathered since the late 1950s on secular trends and geographic changeability in aerobic and anaerobic pediatric fitness performances of children and adolescents from 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. There are chapters proposing that there is proof that there has been a world-wide decline in pediatric aerobic performance in recent decades, relative stability in anaerobic performance, and that the best performing children come from northern and central Europe. In final chapters possible causes to that end are considered, including whether weakening in aerobic performance are the result of distributional or widespread declines, and whether increases in obesity alone can explain the failure in aerobic performance. ASSESSMENT The editors have assembled a volume of Medicine and Sports Science that is necessary and essential reading for all who are interested in understanding and improving the fitness of children. The readers will find useful information in this book on secular trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. I believe, the book will serve as a first

  17. TREND: a program using cumulative sum methods to detect long-term trends in data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cranston, R.J.; Dunbar, R.M.; Jarvis, R.G.

    1976-01-01

    TREND is a computer program, in FORTRAN, to investigate data for long-term trends that are masked by short-term statistical fluctuations. To do this, it calculates and plots the cumulative sum of deviations from a chosen mean. As a further aid to diagnosis, the procedure can be repeated with a summation of the cumulative sum itself. (author)

  18. A New View of Long-Term Geomagnetic Field Secular Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve P. Lund

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study carries out a statistical analysis of high-resolution PSV records for the last ~70 ka from three different regions of the Earth. We consider directional and intensity variability in each region on time scales of 103-105 years in order to evaluate long-term PSV. We then compare those results with more traditional long-term PSV statistical studies averaged over ~106 years. Three replicate PSV records from one region (subtropical North Atlantic Ocean were averaged at overlapping 3 and 9 ka intervals. Variability in both scalar inclination and declination variability and vector angular dispersion are significant and coherent among the three records. The vector dispersion is relatively low for most of the time but contains two relatively narrow intervals (~30–42 and 60–65 ka of high dispersion. (Vector dispersion in all records was calculated after removing directions with true excursional VGPs, VGPs < 45° N. We have carried out a comparable statistical analysis on two other PSV records from other parts of the Earth (Chile margin; Philippines/Indonesia. The results for these three regions are comparable in their overall style of variability. The scalar directional variability from the Philippines/Indonesia is quite different in detail from the other two regions, as might be expected, but the scalar directional variability between the Western Hemisphere regions is remarkably consistent considering their distance from one another. This may be associated with them being on the same longitude swath and having some coherent dynamo activity occurring along that path. Three magnetic field excursions occur in the study interval. All three excursions are associated with the two highest vector dispersion intervals. Paleointensity records from the three regions were subjected to the same statistical analysis as the directions. These records are all coherent in their pattern of variability. The similarity in paleointensity variability on a global

  19. Discovery of a secular trend in Cayo Santiago macaque reproduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Pacheco, Raisa; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Delgado, Diana L; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Sabat, Alberto M

    2016-02-01

    Reproductive synchrony and the consequent clustering of births are hypothesized to be regulated by seasonal changes in rainfall and food availability. Such climate-related seasonality is, however, questionable in tropical populations occupying temporally invariant habitats year round. Using the long-term data of the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaques from 1973 to 2013, this study distinguishes synchrony (a greater than chance clustering of births) from seasonality (a cluster of births during a period of the year when abiotic conditions are favorable) and shows that females are highly synchronized (>72% of births in a 3-month period) but the effects of environmental zeitgebers on reproduction are overridden by biological factors. Specifically, biotic and abiotic factors including (i) loss of immature offspring; (ii) population density; (iii) age at delivery; (iv) rainfall; and (v) changes in colony management were modeled in relation to the annual onset of births and the median birth date. Females experiencing loss of immature offspring had an interbirth interval of trend in both the onset of births and the median date of birth is documented and the model predicts that the median birth date will advance across all calendar-based seasons by 2050. The secular trend in reproduction appears to be triggered by changes in the age at delivery of females, the absence of physiological constraints from maternal investment due to offspring loss, shorter interbirth interval, and a higher degree of coordination due to increasing population density. This study challenges the reproductive phenology previously described for rhesus macaques highlighting the importance of long-term studies in addressing the ultimate causes of reproductive synchrony. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Long-term trends in alcohol policy attitudes in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossow, Ingeborg; Storvoll, Elisabet E

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study was to describe trends in attitudes to alcohol control policies in Norway over a period of 50 years and to discuss how these trends relate to developments in alcohol policy. Survey data from 17 national population surveys, national statistics and previous publications were applied to describe trends in attitudes to alcohol control polices (access to alcohol and price) and changes in these policies over the period 1962 to 2012. From 1962 to 1999, an increasing proportion of the population reported that regulations on availability of alcohol were too strict and that alcohol prices were too high, whereas in the 2000s this trend was reversed and support for existing control policies increased. Although the pillars of Norwegian alcohol policy--high prices, restricted access and a state monopoly on retail sales-remained, control policies were gradually relaxed throughout the entire period. Relaxation of strict alcohol control policies in Norway in the first four decades were probably, in part, the result of increasingly liberal public opinion. The subsequent reversed trend in opinions with increasing support for control policies may be due to several factors, for example, consumer-oriented changes in the monopoly system, increased availability and affordability, increased awareness of alcohol-related harm and the effectiveness of control policies. Thus, the dynamics of policies and attitudes may well change over time. © 2013 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  1. Long-term changes and trends in the upper atmosphere - An introduction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Akmaev, R. A.; Emmert, J. T.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 71, 14-15 (2009), s. 1511-1513 ISSN 1364-6826 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : long-term changes * long-term trends * upper atmosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.643, year: 2009 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13646826

  2. Decreasing Trend in the Use and Long-Term Use of Benzodiazepines Among Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tähkäpää, Sanna-Mari; Saastamoinen, Leena; Airaksinen, Marja; Tuulio-Henriksson, Annamari; Aalto-Setälä, Terhi; Kurko, Terhi

    2018-03-14

    Patterns of benzodiazepine (BZD) use and long-term use among young adults are not well known. Our aim was to study trends in BZD use and long-term use among 18-25-year-old young adults by gender and active substance in a nationwide retrospective longitudinal register-based setting. All Finns aged 18-25 years with reimbursed purchases of BZDs in 2006-2014 recorded to the Finnish Prescription Register were included. Annual prevalence rates of BZD use and long-term use among young adults were reported overall, according to gender, drug group (anxiolytic or hypnotic), and active substance. Long-term use of BZDs was defined as purchasing ≥180 Defined Daily Doses (DDDs) in at least two drug purchases during a calendar year. Overall prevalence of BZD use among young adults decreased from 24.0 to 18.8 users per 1000 inhabitants in 2006-2014. Prevalence of long-term use decreased from 5.5 to 3.3 users per 1000 inhabitants. Overall BZD use was higher among females, whereas long-term use was more common among males. Use of anxiolytics was more common than use of hypnotics. Oxazepam, alprazolam, zopiclone, and zolpidem were the most used BZDs, whereas alprazolam and clonazepam were the substances with most long-term use. The use and long-term use of BZDs have decreased annually since 2008 among Finnish young adults. Further research is needed to investigate the reasons behind the decline.

  3. Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2015-05-01

    Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability

  4. Is there an upward long term trend in Danish real house prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skak, Morten

    2012-01-01

    In Denmark, like in other countries, there is no agreement on the fundamental long term path of real house prices and the sustainability of the present price level. The paper presents Danish house price indices and discusses the question of quality correction of the indices. Subsequently, factors...... behind the long term trend in real house prices and its sustainability are discussed. The paper finds an annual real growth trend around 1.5 per cent for Danish single family house prices likely for the coming ten years....

  5. Long term trends in oral antidiabetic drug use among children and adolescents in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Fazeli Farsani; P. Souverein (Patrick); J.A. Overbeek (Jetty); M.M.J. Van Der Vorst; C.A.J. Knibbe (Catherijne); R.M.C. Herings (Ron); A.C. de Boer (Anton); A.K. Mantel-Teeuwisse (Aukje)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractAim The aim of the study was to document long term trends in oral antidiabetic drug (OAD) use among children and adolescents in the Netherlands. Methods A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Dutch PHARMO Database Network. All patients younger than 20 years old with at

  6. Long term trends in oral antidiabetic drug use among children and adolescents in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fazeli Farsani, S; Souverein, P C; Overbeek, J A; van der Vorst, M M J; Knibbe, C A J; Herings, R M C; de Boer, Anthonius; Mantel-Teeuwisse, A K

    AIM: The aim of the study was to document long term trends in oral antidiabetic drug (OAD) use among children and adolescents in the Netherlands. METHODS: A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Dutch PHARMO Database Network. All patients younger than 20 years old with at least one

  7. Long-term trends in foF2: A comparison of various methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Mikhailov, A. V.; Ulich, T.; Bremer, J.; Elias, A. G.; Ortiz de Adler, N.; Jara, V.; Abarca del Rio, R.; Foppiano, A. J.; Ovalle, E.; Danilov, A. D.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 68, č. 17 (2006), s. 1854-1870 ISSN 1364-6826 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Ionosphere * foF2 * Long-term trends * Anthropogenic effects Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.448, year: 2006

  8. Long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires in South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Morton, D. C.; Yin, Y. F.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; van der Werf, G.R.; DeFries, R. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Landscape fires in South America have considerable impacts on ecosystems, air quality and the climate system. We examined long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires for the continent during 2001-2012 using multiple satellite-derived fire

  9. Long-term trends from ecosystem research at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Christopher Eagar; Gene E. Likens; Thomas G. Siccama; Chris E. Johnson; Timothy J. Fahey; Steven P. Hamburg; Richard T. Holmes; Amey S. Bailey; Donald C. Buso

    2007-01-01

    Summarizes 52 years of collaborative, long-term research conducted at the Hubbard Brook (NH) Experimental Forest on ecosystem response to disturbances such as air pollution, climate change, forest disturbance, and forest management practices. Also provides explanations of some of the trends and lists references from scientific literature for further reading.

  10. Long-term Trends in Catch Composition from Elasmobranch Derbies in Elkhorn Slough, California

    OpenAIRE

    Carlisle, Aaron

    2007-01-01

    Long-term trends in the elasmobranch assemblage of Elkhorn Slough, Monterey Bay, California, were analyzed by documenting species composition and catch per unit effort (CPUE) from 55 sport fishing derbies that occurred during May, June, and July, from 1951 until 1995. The most abundant species (bat ray, Myliobatis californica; shovelnose guitarfish, Rhinobatos productus; and leopard shark, Triakis semifasciata) were also analyzed for size-weight relationships, trends in size class distributio...

  11. Comments on "Long-Term Variations of Exospheric Temperature Inferred From foF1 Observations: A Comparison to ISR Ti Trend Estimates" by Perrone and Mikhailov

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shun-Rong; Holt, John M.; Erickson, Philip J.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.

    2018-05-01

    Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) and Mikhailov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023909) have recently examined thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends using a data set of four thermospheric parameters (Tex, [O], [N2], and [O2]) and solar EUV flux. These data were derived from one single ionospheric parameter, foF1, using a nonlinear fitting procedure involving a photochemical model for the F1 peak. The F1 peak is assumed at the transition height ht with the linear recombination for atomic oxygen ions being equal to the quadratic recombination for molecular ions. This procedure has a number of obvious problems that are not addressed or not sufficiently justified. The potentially large ambiguities and biases in derived parameters make them unsuitable for precise quantitative ionospheric and thermospheric long-term trend studies. Furthermore, we assert that Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) conclusions regarding incoherent scatter radar (ISR) ion temperature analysis for long-term trend studies are incorrect and in particular are based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the incoherent scatter radar measurement process. Large ISR data sets remain a consistent and statistically robust method for determining long term secular plasma temperature trends.

  12. Long-term trends of foE and geomagnetic activity variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Mikhailov

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available A relationship between foE trends and geomagnetic activity long-term variations has been revealed for the first time. By analogy with earlier obtained results on the foF2 trends it is possible to speak about the geomagnetic control of the foE long-term trends as well. Periods of increasing geomagnetic activity correspond to negative foE trends, while these trends are positive for the decreasing phase of geomagnetic activity. This "natural" relationship breaks down around 1970 (on some stations later when pronounced positive foE trends have appeared on most of the stations considered. The dependence of foE trends on geomagnetic activity can be related with nitric oxide variations at the E-layer heights. The positive foE trends that appeared after the "break down" effect may also be explained by the [NO] decrease which is not related to geomagnetic activity variations. But negative trends or irregular foE variations on some stations for the same time period require some different mechanism. Chemical pollution of the lower thermosphere due to the anthropogenic activity may be responsible for such abnormal foE behavior after the end of the 1960s.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances

  13. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

    2012-04-01

    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  14. Long-term trends of foF2 independent of geomagnetic activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Danilov

    Full Text Available A detailed analysis of the foF2 data at a series of ionospheric stations is performed to reveal long-term trends independent of the long-term changes in geomagnetic activity during the recent decades (nongeomagnetic trends. The method developed by the author and published earlier is used. It is found that the results for 21 out of 23 stations considered agree well and give a relative nongeomagnetic trend of -0.0012 per year (or an absolute nongeomagnetic trend of about -0.012 MHz per year for the period between 1958 and the mid-nineties. The trends derived show no dependence on geomagnetic latitude or local time, a fact confirming their independence of geomagnetic activity. The consideration of the earlier period (1948–1985 for a few stations for which the corresponding data are available provides significantly lower foF2 trends, the difference between the later and earlier periods being a factor of 1.6. This is a strong argument in favor of an anthropogenic nature of the trends derived.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances; mid-latitude ionosphere

  15. Long term stability of yttria-stabilized zirconia waste forms. Stability for secular change of partitioned TRU waste composition by disintegration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Ken-ichi; Banba, Tsunetaka; Mitamura, Hisayoshi; Sakai, Etsuro; Uno, Masayoshi; Kinoshita, H.; Yamanaka, Shinsuke

    1999-01-01

    In this study, the stability of YSZ waste forms for secular change of partitioned TRU waste composition by disintegration, one of important terms in long-term stability, is the special concern. Designed amount of waste and YSZ powder were mixed and sintered. These TRU waste forms were submitted to tests of phase stability, chemical durability, mechanical property and compactness. The results were compared with those of another YSZ waste forms, non-radioactive Ce and/or Nd doped YSZ samples, and glass and Synroc waste forms. Experimental results show following: (1) Phase stability of (Np+Am)-, (Np+U)-, and (Np+U+Bi)-doped YSZ waste forms could be maintained of that of the initial Np+Am-doped YSZ waste form permanently even when the composition of partitioned TRU waste were changed by disintegration. (2) Secular change also accelerated volume increase of YSZ waste forms as well as alpha-decay damage. (3) Hv, E and K IC of (Np+U)- and (Np+U+Bi)-doped YSZ waste forms were independent of the secular change of the partitioned TRU waste composition by disintegration. (4) Mechanical properties of YSZ waste forms were more than those of a glass and Synroc waste forms. (5) Compactness of YSZ waste forms was good as waste forms for the partitioned TRU wastes. (J.P.N.)

  16. Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

    2018-06-01

    California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Long-term trends in the ionosphere and upper atmosphere parameters

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bremer, J.; Alfonsi, L.; Pal, B.; Laštovička, Jan; Mikhailov, A. V.; Rogers, N.

    47 /suppl./, 2/3 (2004), s. 1009-1029 ISSN 1593-5213. [Final Meeting COST271 Action. Effects of the upper atmosphere on terrestrial and Earth-space communications (EACOS). Abingdon, 26.08.2004-27.08.2004] R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 271.10 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : long-term trends * ionosphere * upper atmosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.413, year: 2004

  18. Long-term trends in the northern extratropical ozone laminae with focus on European stations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Križan, Peter; Kozubek, Michal

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 120, December (2014), s. 88-95 ISSN 1364-6826 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12070; GA ČR GAP209/10/1792 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ozone laminae * long-term trends * atmospheric dynamics Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.474, year: 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682614002119

  19. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

    2018-01-01

    We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  20. CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

    2006-01-01

    Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

  1. Long term trending of engineering data for the Hubble Space Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Ross M.

    1993-01-01

    A major goal in spacecraft engineering analysis is the detection of component failures before the fact. Trending is the process of monitoring subsystem states to discern unusual behaviors. This involves reducing vast amounts of data about a component or subsystem into a form that helps humans discern underlying patterns and correlations. A long term trending system has been developed for the Hubble Space Telescope. Besides processing the data for 988 distinct telemetry measurements each day, it produces plots of 477 important parameters for the entire 24 hours. Daily updates to the trend files also produce 339 thirty day trend plots each month. The total system combines command procedures to control the execution of the C-based data processing program, user-written FORTRAN routines, and commercial off-the-shelf plotting software. This paper includes a discussion the performance of the trending system and of its limitations.

  2. The Interval Slope Method for Long-Term Forecasting of Stock Price Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-xue Nie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A stock price is a typical but complex type of time series data. We used the effective prediction of long-term time series data to schedule an investment strategy and obtain higher profit. Due to economic, environmental, and other factors, it is very difficult to obtain a precise long-term stock price prediction. The exponentially segmented pattern (ESP is introduced here and used to predict the fluctuation of different stock data over five future prediction intervals. The new feature of stock pricing during the subinterval, named the interval slope, can characterize fluctuations in stock price over specific periods. The cumulative distribution function (CDF of MSE was compared to those of MMSE-BC and SVR. We concluded that the interval slope developed here can capture more complex dynamics of stock price trends. The mean stock price can then be predicted over specific time intervals relatively accurately, in which multiple mean values over time intervals are used to express the time series in the long term. In this way, the prediction of long-term stock price can be more precise and prevent the development of cumulative errors.

  3. Geomagnetic and ionospheric data analysis over Antarctica: a contribution to the long term trends investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Alfonsi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the foF2 ionosonde data acquired at mid and high latitudes reveals a general decreasing of the F2 plasma frequency over more than two solar cycles, showing steeper trends over the high latitude stations and, in particular, over Antarctica. A careful analysis of the foF2 hourly data, opportunely catalogued in different levels of magneto-ionospheric conditions, highlights the role of the geomagnetic activity in the secular change of the ionosphere and confirms the latitudinal dependence of the trends. These results suggest interesting relations with some recent findings on the rapid decrease of some important physical and statistical quantities related to the geomagnetic field over the whole globe and mainly in Antarctica. In this paper we discuss the possibility of a connection between the ionospheric trends and a possible imminent geomagnetic reversal or excursion.

  4. Geomagnetic and ionospheric data analysis over Antarctica: a contribution to the long term trends investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Alfonsi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the foF2 ionosonde data acquired at mid and high latitudes reveals a general decreasing of the F2 plasma frequency over more than two solar cycles, showing steeper trends over the high latitude stations and, in particular, over Antarctica. A careful analysis of the foF2 hourly data, opportunely catalogued in different levels of magneto-ionospheric conditions, highlights the role of the geomagnetic activity in the secular change of the ionosphere and confirms the latitudinal dependence of the trends. These results suggest interesting relations with some recent findings on the rapid decrease of some important physical and statistical quantities related to the geomagnetic field over the whole globe and mainly in Antarctica. In this paper we discuss the possibility of a connection between the ionospheric trends and a possible imminent geomagnetic reversal or excursion.

  5. Elderly and long-term care trends and policy in Taiwan: Challenges and opportunities for health care professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsiu-Hung Wang

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to address the trends and policy of elderly and long-term care in Taiwan. In response to the increasing demand of an aging society, healthcare professionals play crucial roles in elderly and long-term care and quality assurance of services. This article focuses on the current situation of elderly health care, demands of long-term care, long-term care policy in Taiwan, draft of the Long-term Care Services Act, and draft of the Long-term Care Insurance Act. After the 10-year long-term care project was proposed by the Taiwan government, the supply of health care services and demand for long-term care have created many challenges and opportunities for innovative health professional development. Challenges consist of low old dependency ratio caused by low birth rate, lack of elderly and long-term care related manpower, services and education reform related to long-term care for the future society, and interprofessional collaboration and team work of long-term care. Opportunities include expanding the roles and the career pathways of healthcare professionals, promoting the concepts of active aging and good quality of life, and developing industrial cooperation related to long-term care services. Under these circumstances, healthcare professonals are actively involved in practice, education and research of long-term care services that ensure elderly and disabled people can live a healthier and better life.

  6. Long-Term Trends in Hematological and Nutritional Status After Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji-Hyun; Bae, You-Jin; Jun, Kyong-Hwa; Chin, Hyung-Min

    2017-08-01

    This study investigated long-term trends in hematological and nutritional parameters after gastrectomy for gastric cancer and evaluated the influence of the reconstruction type on these trends. The medical records of 558 patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with standard lymph node dissection for stage I gastric cancer between January 2006 and December 2013 were reviewed. The hematological and nutritional parameters evaluated included hemoglobin, ferritin, vitamin B 12 , total protein, albumin, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and calcium. The patients were followed up for 6 months postoperatively and then annually until death, cancer recurrence, or follow-up loss. In the long term, ferritin and triglyceride gradually decreased after gastrectomy, while the other parameters decreased slightly or were stable. In the comparisons according to reconstruction type, the Roux-en-Y group had the lowest levels of hemoglobin, ferritin, vitamin B12, total protein, albumin, and total cholesterol beginning 6 months postoperatively compared with the Billroth I and II groups. However, only ferritin and vitamin B 12 had significant differences in the 5-year cumulative incidences of deficiency/reduction according to the reconstruction type, whereas albumin, triglyceride, total cholesterol, and calcium did not. Although malabsorption and malnutrition are common in patients after a gastrectomy, most nutritional parameters were stable or decreased slightly in the long-term and were not markedly influenced by the reconstruction type or extent of gastrectomy. Therefore, for more accurate nutritional assessment after gastrectomy, multidirectional monitoring should be considered rather than simply measuring biochemical parameters.

  7. Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Taxak

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

  8. Comparison of the long-term trends in stratospheric dynamics of four reanalyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kozubek

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the long-term trends of different atmospheric parameters have been already studied separately in many papers, this study is focused on the stratospheric wind (zonal and meridional components and temperature over the whole globe at 10 hPa during 1979–2015. We present the trends for the whole winter (October–March, for each individual month of winter and separately for the period before and after the ozone trend turnaround during the mid-1990s. The change of ozone trends has a clear impact on trends in other investigated stratospheric parameters. Four reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-DOE are used for comparison. Every grid point is analysed, not zonal averages. The comparison of trends in meridional wind, which is closely connected with Brewer–Dobson circulation, shows a good agreement for all four reanalyses (main features and amplitudes of the trends in terms of winter averages, but there are some differences in individual months, particularly in trend amplitude. These results could be important for studying dynamics (transport in the whole stratosphere.

  9. Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Estuarine and Coastal Carbonate Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, Jacob; Chierici, Melissa; Gustafsson, Bo G.

    2018-01-01

    Coastal pH and total alkalinity are regulated by a diverse range of local processes superimposed on global trends of warming and ocean acidification, yet few studies have investigated the relative importance of different processes for coastal acidification. We describe long-term (1972...... for a pH decrease of 0.0008year(-1). Accounting for mixing, salinity, and temperature effects on dissociation and solubility constants, the resulting pH decline (0.0040year(-1)) was about twice the ocean trend, emphasizing the effect of nutrient management on primary production and coastal acidification....... Coastal pCO(2) increased similar to 4 times more rapidly than ocean rates, enhancing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Indeed, coastal systems undergo more drastic changes than the ocean and coastal acidification trends are substantially enhanced from nutrient reductions to address coastal eutrophication....

  10. Long-term trends in foF2: their estimating and origin

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Yue, X.; Wan, W.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 3 (2008), s. 593-598 ISSN 0992-7689 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Grant - others:COST(XE) 296; National Science Foundation of China(CN) 40636032; National Science Foundation of China(CN) 40574071; National important Basic Research Project(CN) 2006CB806306 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : ionosphere * long-term trends * geomagnetism and paleomagnetism * Radio Science Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.660, year: 2008 http://www.ann-geophys.net/26/593/2008/

  11. Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winds in higher midlatitudes: longitudinal distribution and long-term trends

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kozubek, Michal; Križan, Peter; Laštovička, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, Feb (2015), s. 2203-2213 ISSN 1680-7316 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792; GA ČR GA15-03909S; GA MŠk LD12070 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : stratospheric dynamics * meridional wind * long-term trend Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 5.114, year: 2015 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/2203/2015/acp-15-2203-2015.html

  12. Long-Term Energy Trends – Where Will We Be in 2050?

    OpenAIRE

    DIAZ-RAINEY, Ivan

    2009-01-01

    4TH ENERDAY CONFERENCE ON ENERGY ECONOMICS AND TECHNOLOGY, TU DRESDEN APRIL 3RD, 2009 The fourth gathering of the popular ENERDAY Conference was a one day event guided by the giddy-sounding theme of “LONG-TERM ENERGY TRENDS – WHERE WILL WE BE IN 2050?” The event attracted over 90 European experts in energy policy, energy technology and energy economics from academia, regulators, consultancies, and the energy industry itself. The event took place under the umbrella of TU Dres...

  13. Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laštovička, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

  14. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Akhil Raj

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  15. Long-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bremer

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected.

    The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO2 content and other greenhouse gases and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995 modifies the estimated mean foE trend.

  16. Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somsubhra Chattopadhyay

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky. Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous stations demonstrated trends (all positive, averaging 0.01 °C/year in mean annual temperature: Calloway County, Allen County in southern-central Kentucky, and urbanized Jefferson County in northern-central Kentucky. In view of the locations of the stations demonstrating positive trends, similar work in adjacent states will be required to better understand the processes responsible for those trends and to properly place them in their larger context, if any.

  17. Factors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Beaulieu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is expected to affect the ocean's biological productivity. The most comprehensive information available about the global distribution of contemporary ocean primary productivity is derived from satellite data. Large spatial patchiness and interannual to multidecadal variability in chlorophyll a concentration challenges efforts to distinguish a global, secular trend given satellite records which are limited in duration and continuity. The longest ocean color satellite record comes from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, which failed in December 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS ocean color sensors are beyond their originally planned operational lifetime. Successful retrieval of a quality signal from the current Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS instrument, or successful launch of the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI expected in 2014 will hopefully extend the ocean color time series and increase the potential for detecting trends in ocean productivity in the future. Alternatively, a potential discontinuity in the time series of ocean chlorophyll a, introduced by a change of instrument without overlap and opportunity for cross-calibration, would make trend detection even more challenging. In this paper, we demonstrate that there are a few regions with statistically significant trends over the ten years of SeaWiFS data, but at a global scale the trend is not large enough to be distinguished from noise. We quantify the degree to which red noise (autocorrelation especially challenges trend detection in these observational time series. We further demonstrate how discontinuities in the time series at various points would affect our ability to detect trends in ocean chlorophyll a. We highlight the importance of maintaining continuous, climate-quality satellite data records for climate-change detection and attribution studies.

  18. Long Term Trend Analysis in the Capital Market – The Case of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radukić Snežana

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the possibility of making investment decisions in emerging markets by using the trend analysis method on a particular example of the capital market in Serbia. The authors, starting from the common features of technical analysis, have analysed the common share index value in the capital market in Serbia, in the Belgrade Stock Exchange - Belexline from 1 March 2006 to 31 March 2009, by the usage of two moving averages method - Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD: an intermediate term of 50 days and a long-term one of 100 days. The above mentioned moving averages identify the establishment of a trend, the cessation of the existing one, a change and an establishment of the new one.

  19. Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Olsen, Are; Heinze, Christoph; Bopp, Laurent; Roy, Tilla

    2014-01-01

    We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO 2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO 2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake, while ocean pCO 2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake. Aside from the western sub-polar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO 2 trends is found when the simulated fields are sub sampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO 2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO 2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970-2011) period, the simulated regional pCO 2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO 2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO 2 growth rates are projected for the sub-polar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO 2 growth rate. Our work

  20. Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry F. Tjiputra

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011 period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work

  1. Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

    2017-10-01

    This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

  2. Secular trends in Cherokee cranial morphology: Eastern vs Western bands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutphin, Rebecca; Ross, Ann H; Jantz, Richard L

    2014-01-01

    The research objective was to examine if secular trends can be identified for cranial data commissioned by Boas in 1892, specifically for cranial breadth and cranial length of the Eastern and Western band Cherokee who experienced environmental hardships. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the degree of relationship between each of the cranial measures: cranial length, cranial breadth and cephalic index, along with predictor variables (year-of-birth, location, sex, admixture); the model revealed a significant difference for all craniometric variables. Additional regression analysis was performed with smoothing Loess plots to observe cranial length and cranial breadth change over time (year-of-birth) separately for Eastern and Western Cherokee band females and males born between 1783-1874. This revealed the Western and Eastern bands show a decrease in cranial length over time. Eastern band individuals maintain a relatively constant head breadth, while Western Band individuals show a sharp decline beginning around 1860. These findings support negative secular trend occurring for both Cherokee bands where the environment made a detrimental impact; this is especially marked with the Western Cherokee band.

  3. Long term trends in PBDE concentrations in gannet (Morus bassanus) eggs from two UK colonies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosse, John D.; Shore, Richard F.; Jones, Kevin C.; Pereira, M. Glória

    2012-01-01

    We used the eggs of an avian sentinel, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus), to determine long-term (1977–2007) trends in PBDE contamination in Western Atlantic (Ailsa Craig colony) and North Sea (Bass Rock colony) waters around the UK. BDEs 47, 49, 99, 100, 153, 154 were the most abundant and were found in all eggs. Individual congener and ΣPBDE concentrations in eggs from both colonies increased mainly from the late 1980s, peaked in 1994, and then rapidly declined so that concentrations in 2002 were similar to or lower than those in the 1970s and 1980s. The PBDE congener profile and temporal variation in PBDE concentrations suggests that the Penta-BDE technical formula was the main source of PBDE contamination. However, contributions of heavier BDE congeners to ΣPBDE concentrations have increased over time, suggesting other sources are becoming more important. PBDEs had no measurable effect on egg volume or eggshell index. - Highlights: ► Detailed long-term (1977–2007) PBDE trends are presented in gannet eggs from the UK. ► Temporal trends mirror consumption of PeBDE technical products. ► In recent years the PBDE profile heavier BDEs became increasingly more important. ► BDE35 concentrations decreased linearly throughout the monitoring period. ► ΣPBDE levels in gannet eggs are below levels linked to impaired reproductive output. - PBDE levels in gannet eggs from two UK colonies mirrored patterns of PBDE consumption, but sources other than PeBDE became more prevalent in recent years.

  4. Nitrogen Dioxide long term trends at mid and high latitudes by means of ground based observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortoli, D.; Petritoli, A.; Giovanelli, G.; Kostadinov, I.; Ravegnani, F.

    2003-04-01

    The interactions between mid- and high latitudes atmospheric changes are going to be one of the main issue for the future of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry research. A more detailed study of the ozone trends as well as a wider comprehension of the interactions with lower and higher latitudes are maybe the main arguments to which scientist should address their works in order to build-up a more detailed picture of what scenarios we have to face in the near future. GASCODs type spectrometers (Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences) are installed at the "Ottavio Vittori" research station (44.11N, 10.42E, 2165 m asl) since June 1993, at the Italian Antarctic Station (74.69S, 164.12E) since December 1995 and at the STIL-BAS station (42.42N, 25.63E) since 1999. The instruments measure zenith scattered solar radiation between 407 and 464 nm. Nitrogen dioxide total column is retrieved with DOAS methodology. The seasonal trend of NO2 vc values is reported and it shows the expected behaviour: maximum values during the summer period while the minimum occur in the winter season in both the hemispheres. A typical behaviour of the AMPM ratio at high latitudes is highlight. A Fourier analysis is proposed as a tool to investigate the long-term components of nitrogen dioxide stratospheric amount. Results are presented and the NO2 trend is evidenced and commented. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The author Daniele Bortoli was financially supported by the Subprograma Ciência e Tecnologia do 3° Quadro Comunitário de Apoio. The National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA) and the Quantification and Interpretation of Long-Term UV-Vis Observations of the Stratosphere (QUILT) project supported this research.

  5. Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Kalicinsky

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis of annual average OH* temperatures in the mesopause region derived from measurements of the Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS at Wuppertal (51° N, 7° E in the time interval 1988 to 2015. The new study uses a temperature time series which is 7 years longer than that used for the latest analysis regarding the long-term dynamics. This additional observation time leads to a change in characterisation of the observed long-term dynamics. We perform a multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux F10.7 cm (11-year cycle of solar activity and time to describe the temperature evolution. The analysis leads to a linear trend of (−0.089 ± 0.055 K year−1 and a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.2 ± 0.9 K (100 SFU−1 (r2 of fit 0.6. However, one linear trend in combination with the 11-year solar cycle is not sufficient to explain all observed long-term dynamics. In fact, we find a clear trend break in the temperature time series in the middle of 2008. Before this break point there is an explicit negative linear trend of (−0.24 ± 0.07 K year−1, and after 2008 the linear trend turns positive with a value of (0.64 ± 0.33 K year−1. This apparent trend break can also be described using a long periodic oscillation. One possibility is to use the 22-year solar cycle that describes the reversal of the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle. A multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux and the solar polar magnetic field as parameters leads to the regression coefficients Csolar = (5.0 ± 0.7 K (100 SFU−1 and Chale = (1.8 ±  0.5 K (100 µT−1 (r2 = 0.71. The second way of describing the OH* temperature time series is to use the solar radio flux and an oscillation. A least-square fit leads to a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.1 ± 0.8 K (100 SFU−1, a period P  =  (24.8 ± 3.3 years, and

  6. Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Tony N.T. [Building Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR (China)

    2010-02-15

    Past and future trends of human comfort in terms of heat and cold stresses under the local subtropical climates using measured meteorological data as well as predictions from general climate models were investigated. Summer discomfort showed an increasing trend (and winter discomfort a decreasing trend) over the past 41 years from 1968 to 2008. Monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures and moisture content predictions from a general climate model (MIROC3.2-H) were used to determine summer and winter discomfort for future years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). The 92-year (2009-2100) mean cold stress would be reduced from the 41-year (1968-2008) mean value of 8.7 to about three for both emissions scenarios. The 92-year mean heat stress would be 115.9 and 120.6 for B1 and A1B, respectively, representing 31.6% and 36.9% increase over the 1968-2008 long-term average of 88.1. These suggest that the already small winter heating requirement in subtropical Hong Kong would become even more insignificant in future years, whereas the increasing trend of summer discomfort would result in more cooling demand in the built environment. (author)

  7. Identification of trend in long term precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Narmada river basin (India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak

    2018-02-01

    Precipitation and reference evapotranspiration are key parameters in hydro-meteorological studies and used for agricultural planning, irrigation system design and management. Precipitation and evaporative demand are expected to be alter under climate change and affect the sustainable development. In this article, spatial variability and temporal trend of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were investigated over Narmada river basin (India), a humid tropical climatic region. In the present study, 12 and 28 observatory stations were selected for precipitation and ETo, respectively of 102-years period (1901-2002). A rigorous analysis for trend detection was carried out using non parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR). Sen's slope estimator was used to analyze the rate of change in long term series. Moreover, all the stations of basin exhibit positive trend for annual ETo, while 8% stations indicate significant negative trend for mean annual precipitation, respectively. Change points of annual precipitation were identified around the year 1962 applying Buishand's and Pettit's test. Annual mean precipitation reduced by 9% in upper part while increased maximum by 5% in lower part of the basin due temporal changes. Although annual mean ETo increase by 4-12% in most of the region. Moreover, results of the study are very helpful in planning and development of agricultural water resources.

  8. Secular trends in the geologic record and the supercontinent cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Dwight C.

    2011-01-01

    Geologic secular trends are used to refine the timetable of supercontinent assembly, tenure, and breakup. The analysis rests on what is meant by the term supercontinent, which here is defined broadly as a grouping of formerly dispersed continents. To avoid the artificial pitfall of an all-or-nothing definition, quantitative measures of “supercontinentality” are presented: the number of continents, and the area of the largest continent, which both can be gleaned from global paleogeographic maps for the Phanerozoic. For the secular trends approach to be viable in the deep past when the very existence of supercontinents is debatable and reconstructions are fraught with problems, it must first be calibrated in the Phanerozoic against the well-constrained Pangea supercontinent cycle. The most informative geologic variables covering both the Phanerozoic and Precambrian are the abundances of passive margins and of detrital zircons. Both fluctuated with size of the largest continent during the Pangea supercontinent cycle and can be quantified back to the Neoarchean. The tenure of Pangea was a time represented in the rock record by few zircons and few passive margins. Thus, previously documented minima in the abundance of detrital zircons (and orogenic granites) during the Precambrian (Condie et al., 2009a, Gondwana Research 15, 228–242) now can be more confidently interpreted as marking the tenures of supercontinents. The occurrences of carbonatites, granulites, eclogites, and greenstone-belt deformation events also appear to bear the imprint of Precambrian supercontinent cyclicity. Together, these secular records are consistent with the following scenario. The Neoarchean continental assemblies of Superia and Sclavia broke up at ca. 2300 and ca. 2090 Ma, respectively. Some of their fragments collided to form Nuna by about 1750 Ma; Nuna then grew by lateral accretion of juvenile arcs during the Mesoproterozoic, and was involved in a series of collisions at ca. 1000 Ma

  9. Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

    2017-12-01

    Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

  10. Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tian, Feng; Fensholt, Rasmus; Verbesselt, Jan

    2015-01-01

    -sensor NDVI time series by analyzing the co-occurrence between breaks in the NDVI time series and sensor shifts from GIMMS3g (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation), VIP3 (Vegetation Index and Phenology version 3), LTDR4 (Long Term Data Record version 4) and SPOT-VGT (Système Pour l......, potentially introducing uncertainties in NDVI trend analysis. Platform/sensor change from VGT-1 to VGT-2 is found to cause a significant positive break in the SPOT-VGT NDVI time series. Potential artifacts exist in humid, dry-subhumid, semi-arid and hyper-arid regions of GIMMS3g NDVI, whereas no signs...

  11. Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khoshnood, Babak; Loane, Maria; Walle, Hermien de

    2015-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION: What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy...... for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? METHODS: This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance......-conceptional folic acid supplementation and existence of voluntary folic acid fortification. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: The study was funded by the European Public Health Commission, EUROCAT Joint Action 2011-2013. HD and ML received support from the European Commission DG Sanco during the conduct...

  12. Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

  13. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  14. Secular trends in monthly heating and cooling demands in Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvitan, Lidija; Sokol Jurković, Renata

    2016-08-01

    This paper analyzes long-term heating and cooling trends for five locations in Croatia from 1901 to 2008 to assist in the revision of Croatia's heating and cooling energy policy. Trends in monthly heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) were determined for three related temperature threshold values each and analyzed to provide insight into the influence of desired thermal comfort on the extent of changes in energy consumption. Monthly trends in the corresponding number of heating days (HD) and cooling days (CD) were also analyzed. A basic investigation of HDD, HD, CDD, and CD trends proved to be essential to the development of a complete description of important climate-related conditions that impact energy demands associated with heating and cooling. In a few cases, the dependence of the trends on the implemented temperature thresholds was rather pronounced and was reflected in great spatial and temporal variations in monthly trends. The statistical significance of the detected monthly trends illustrated a diverse range of possible impacts of climate changes on heating and cooling energy consumption both across and within three main climate regions in Croatia (continental, mountainous, and maritime). It is confirmed that the applied monthly scale for analyses is suitable for assessing heating and cooling practices.

  15. Long-term trends of men's co-residence with children in England and Wales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ursula Henz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Increasing numbers of childless men as well as fathers with reduced or no contact with their children have sparked concern about an erosion of fatherhood. Although the general trend is undisputed, claims about men's decreasing family involvement lack a sound empirical basis that enables comparisons between countries and sub-groups of society. Objective: This study derives long-term trends in father-child co-residence over the life course in England and Wales, and provides comparisons of these trends by level of education and ethnic origin. Methods: The paper calculates shares of father-child co-residence from the National Statistics Longitudinal Study (LS and the British Labour-Force Surveys (LFS. Results: There has been a decline of father-child co-residence in England and Wales for men in their thirties, an even greater decline for men in their twenties, and a small increase in the shares of father-child co-residence at higher ages. The trends for different educational groups were similar, but men with a degree had particularly low rates of father-child co-residence at younger ages, and relatively high ones at older ages. Neither less-educated men, nor men from Black-Caribbean and Black-African origins showed rates of father-child co-residence as low as one might have expected. Conclusions: The steady decline of father-child co-residence among men born between 1930 and 1979 in England and Wales lends support to claims about an erosion of fatherhood. However, it is unwarranted to generalize findings from other countries about particularly low levels of father-child co-residence among less-educated men to men in England and Wales.

  16. A Systematic Review of Global Publication Trends Regarding Long-Term Outcomes of ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L. Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

    2012-01-01

    There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

  17. Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Giglio

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001–2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997–2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3 estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

  18. A systematic review of long-term outcomes in ADHD: global publication trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul eHodgkins

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least two years in duration were examined. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of publications in 2008. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. This systematic review analysis of publication trends in ADHD LTOs reflects geographically-based interests that change over time.

  19. A systematic review of global publication trends regarding long-term outcomes of ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

    2011-01-01

    There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

  20. Modelling impacts of atmospheric deposition and temperature on long-term DOC trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, K; Rowe, E C; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; E I Vanguelova; Wade, A J; J M Clark

    2017-02-01

    It is increasingly recognised that widespread and substantial increases in Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in remote surface, and soil, waters in recent decades are linked to declining acid deposition. Effects of rising pH and declining ionic strength on DOC solubility have been proposed as potential dominant mechanisms. However, since DOC in these systems is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and since organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists over the extent to which other drivers that could influence DOC production. Such potential drivers include fertilisation by nitrogen (N) and global warming. We therefore ran the dynamic soil chemistry model MADOC for a range of UK soils, for which time series data are available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on soil DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to raise the "acid recovery DOC baseline" significantly. In contrast, reductions in non-marine chloride deposition and effects of long term warming appeared to have been relatively unimportant. The suggestion that future DOC concentrations might exceed preindustrial levels as a consequence of nitrogen pollution has important implications for drinking water catchment management and the setting and pursuit of appropriate restoration targets, but findings still require validation from reliable centennial-scale proxy records, such as those being developed

  1. Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

    2018-05-15

    Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

  2. NAEP 1999 Long-Term Trend Technical Analysis Report: Three Decades of Student Performance. NCES 2005-484

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Nancy L.; McClellan, Catherine A.; Stoeckel, Joan J.

    2005-01-01

    This report provides an update to the technical analysis procedures documenting the 1996 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) as presented in "The NAEP 1996 Technical Report" (Allen, Carlson, and Zelenak, 1999). It describes how the 1999 long-term trend data were incorporated into the trend analyses. Since no national main…

  3. Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO missions observations and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krivanek, Robert, E-mail: r.krivanek@iaea.org [Operational Safety Section, Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna 1400 (Austria); Havel, Radim, E-mail: Radim.Havel@gmail.com [RESCO, Nitranska 894/8, 10100 Praha 10 (Czech Republic)

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • During the period 2005–mid 2015, 22 SALTO peer review missions and 2 LTO modules of OSART missions were conducted. • Analysis of these mission results and main trends observed are gathered in this paper. • The main task of the assessment performed was to evaluate and give a weight to the evaluation. • Results of SALTO follow-up missions as well as OSART follow-up missions with LTO module are summarized. • The SALTO peer review service is strongly recommended for NPPs prior to entering LTO period. - Abstract: This paper builds on paper “Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO peer review service and its results”, NED8070, presented in Nuclear Engineering and Design in September 2014. This paper presents the analysis of SALTO mission results and main trends observed so that all the most important results of SALTO missions are gathered in one paper. The paper also includes the results of LTO module reviews performed in the frame of OSART missions where applicable as well as follow-up missions. This paper is divided in three main Sections. Section 1 provides brief introduction to SALTO peer review service. Section 2 provides overview of performed SALTO missions and LTO modules of OSART missions performed between 2005 and mid-2015. Section 3 summarizes the most significant observations and trends resulting from the missions between 2005 and mid-2015. Section 4 summarizes the results of SALTO follow-up missions as well as OSART follow-up missions.

  4. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Jianhua; CHEN Yaning; LI Weihong; DONG Shan

    2008-01-01

    Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005, the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using thewavelet analysis method and the fractal theory. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) From a large time scale pointof view, i.e. the time scale of 16 (24) years, the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a wholefrom 1958 to 2005. If the time scale is reduced to 8 (23) or 4 (22) years, the annual runoff still displays the basic trendas the large time scale, but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period. 2) The correlation dimension for theannual runoff process is 3.4307, non-integral, which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteris-tics. The correlation dimension is above 3, which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describethe dynamics of the annual runoff process. 3) The Hurst exponent for the first period (1958-1973) is 0.5036, whichequals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos. The Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989) and third (1990-2005) periods are both greater than 0.50, which indicate that the annual runoff processshowed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods. The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indi-cates that the annual runoffwill show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.

  5. Long-term trends of sulfur deposition in East Asia during 1981-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Ohara, Toshimasa; Morino, Yu; Uno, Itsushi; Kurokawa, Jun-ichi; Hara, Hiroshi

    2012-11-01

    We used a chemical transport model to investigate the long-term trends of sulfur deposition in East Asia during 1981-2005. The model reproduced the observed spatial distributions in East Asia of the rate of wet deposition of non-seasalt sulfate (nss-SO42-), volume-weighted mean concentrations of nss-SO42- in precipitation, precipitation, and concentrations in air of gaseous sulfur dioxide and particulate nss-SO42-. The model also reproduced well observed seasonal variations and long-term trends of wet deposition of nss-SO42- in Japan from 1988 to 2005. The increasing rate of wet deposition of nss-SO42- in Japan during 1991-2005 was demonstrated with 99.9% significance for both observed and modeled data. The annual rate of total (wet + dry) sulfur deposition in Japan increased from 15.6 Gmol S y-1 in 1981-1985 to 23.9 Gmol S y-1 in 2001-2005 in response to both increasing contributions from Chinese emissions and the eruption of Miyakejima volcano in 2000. During that 25-year period, approximately 2.1% of the sulfur from Chinese emissions was deposited in Japan. Over the same period, the rate of deposition of sulfur in East Asia increased gradually from 14.2 mmol S m-2 y-1 to 24.0 mmol S m-2 y-1, and the contribution of emissions from China to total sulfur deposition in East Asia increased from 65% to 77%. The contribution of Miyakejima volcano was 3% during 2001-2005. The increase in the sulfur deposition rate was remarkably high on the North China Plain, around Guangzhou, and south of Chongqing. The rate of increase in East Asia was greatest in winter, although the rate of sulfur deposition was highest in summer. Sulfur flux from China to Japan increased by a factor of 2.5 at altitudes of 0-3000 m from 1981 to 2005.

  6. Long-term trend and variability of atmospheric PM10 concentration in the Po Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigi, A.; Ghermandi, G.

    2014-05-01

    The limits to atmospheric pollutant concentration set by the European Commission provide a challenging target for the municipalities in the Po Valley, because of the characteristic climatic conditions and high population density of this region. In order to assess climatology and trends in the concentration of atmospheric particles in the Po Valley, a data set of PM10 data from 41 sites across the Po Valley have been analysed, including both traffic and background sites (either urban, suburban or rural). Of these 41 sites, 18 with 10 yr or longer record have been analysed for long-term trend in deseasonalized monthly means, in annual quantiles and in monthly frequency distribution. A widespread significant decreasing trend has been observed at most sites, up to a few percent per year, by a generalized least squares and Theil-Sen method. All 41 sites have been tested for significant weekly periodicity by Kruskal-Wallis test for mean anomalies and by Wilcoxon test for weekend effect magnitude. A significant weekly periodicity has been observed for most PM10 series, particularly in summer and ascribed mainly to anthropic particulate emissions. A cluster analysis has been applied in order to highlight stations sharing similar pollution conditions over the reference period. Five clusters have been found, two encompassing the metropolitan areas of Turin and Milan and their respective nearby sites and the other three clusters gathering northeast, northwest and central Po Valley sites respectively. Finally, the observed trends in atmospheric PM10 have been compared to trends in provincial emissions of particulates and PM precursors, and analysed along with data on vehicular fleet age, composition and fuel sales. A significant basin-wide drop in emissions occurred for gaseous pollutants, contrarily to emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, whose drop was low and restricted to a few provinces. It is not clear whether the decrease for only gaseous emissions is sufficient to explain the

  7. Water quality of the Neuse River, North Carolina - Variability, pollution loads, and long-term trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harned, Doughlas A.

    1982-01-01

    Interpretation of water-quality data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Neuse River, North Carolina, has identified water-quality variations, charactrized the current condition of the river in reference to water-quality standards, estimated the degree of pollution caused by man, and evaluated long-term trends in concentrations of major dissolved constituents. Two sampling stations, Neuse River near Clayton (02087500) and Neuse River at Kinston (02089500) have more than 12 years of water-quality data collected during the period from 1955 to 1978. The Clayton station provides information on the upper fourth of the basin (1,129 mi 2) which includes several urbanized areas, including Raleigh, N.C., and part of Durham, N.C. The Kinston station provides information from the predominantly rural midsection of the basin (2,690 mi2). A network of temporary stations on small rural streams in the Neuse River and adjacent basins provide an estimate of baseline or es- sentially unpolluted water quality. Overall, the water quality of the Neuse River is satisfactory for most uses. However, dissolved-oxygen, iron, and manganese concentrations, pH, and bacterial concentrations often reach undesirable levels. Concentrations of cadmium, and lead also periodically peak at or above criterion levels for domestic water supply sources. Nutrient levels are generally high enough to allow rich algal growth. Sediment concentrations in the Neuse are high in comparison to pristine streams, however, the impacts of these high levels are difficult to quantify. Sediment and nutrient concentrations peak on the leading edge of flood discharges at Clayton. At Kinston, however, the discharge and sediment concentration peak almost simultaneously. Changes in algal dominance, from genera usually associated with organically enriched waters to genera that are less tolerant to organic enrichment, indicate improvement in water qualiy of the Neuse since 1973. These changes, along with a reduction

  8. Lessons learned from Three Mile Island (TMI), USNRC long-term trends, industry response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szalay, R.A.

    1981-01-01

    Studies resulting from Three Mile Island (TMI) showed that corrections were needed in information processing, operator training and procedures, and certain aspects of the safety review process. These have been undertaken by industry and NRC and the results are positive. New safety instructions have been set up. The Nuclear Safety Analysis Center (NSAC) is providing a focus for analysis of issues which have generic elements affecting a number of plants of similar or related design. The Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) is setting industry standards for training and certification of operators and supervisory personnel, and for training of the managerial chain which oversees safety practices. Changes in procedures and in some design features called for in the recommendations of the NRC Lessons Learned Task Force (NUREG-0578) have been simplemented by utilities. Other requirements included in the NRC Action Plan (NUREG-0660) and its companion document clarification of TMI Action Plan Requirements (NUREG-0737), are also being addressed. Improved operator training and emergency procedures provide a continuing opportunity to make safety gains. Problems remain to be faced in the regulatory and political arenas. The long-term licensing trend will be affected by the manner in which degraded core issues and the development of a safety goal proceed. The Industry Degraded Core Rulemaking (IDCOR) program has been undertaken to develop the nuclear industry's position in anticipation of an impending rulemaking. Both industry and NRC are working on the development of a safety goal and standard risk assessment methodology. (AF)

  9. The long-term trend of carbon-14 level in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikazu Inoue; Tetsuo Iwakura

    1993-01-01

    The long-term trend of the specific activity of 14 C in terms of dpm/gC from 1942 to 1991 in the natural environment in Japan was obtained as baseline data by analyzing plant components so as to evaluate the collective effective dose. It was deduced that the specific activity of 14 C in plants reflected well that of atmospheric 14 CO 2 . Uniform distribution of the specific activity in plant among species as well as the production places was confirmed. The Suess effect was observed clearly for a period of 10 years from the late 1960's. The 14 C level was at about 13.7 dpm/gC due to cosmic ray production in 1940's, and reached a peak of about 24.5 dpm/gC in 1963 due to nuclear weapons testing and decreased to 15.6 dpm/gC in 1991. Fermented alcohol proved to be a convenient indicator for measuring the annual mean specific activity of 14 C in the atmosphere. (3 figs.)

  10. Long-term trends in the abundance and community structure of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... increased predation by top predators. Another mechanism contributing to the long-term increase in zooplankton is the observed long-term intensification of coastal upwelling, which could enhance primary and secondary production, and increase advective input of zooplankton populations into the study area and augment ...

  11. Long Term Evaluation of Yield Stability Trend for Cereal Crops in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mehdi nassiri mahalati

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available During the last few decades cereals yield have increased drastically at the national level however, information about yield stability and its resistance to annual environmental variability are scare. In this study long term stability of grin yield of wheat, barley, rice, corn and overall cereals in Iran were evaluated during a 40-year period (1971-2011. Stability analysis was conducted using two different methods. In the first method the residuals of regression between crop yield and time (years were calculated as stability index. For this different segmented regression models including linear, bi-linear and tri-linear were fitted to yield trend data and the best model for each crop was selected based on statistical measures. Absolute residuals (the difference between actual and predicted yields for each year as well as relative residuals (absolute residuals as percent of predicted yield were estimated. In the second method yield stability was estimated from the slope of the regression line between average annual yield of all cereals (environmental index and the yield of each crop in the same year. Results indicted that in wheat and barley absolute and relative residuals were increased during the study period leading to reduction of stability despite considerable yield increment. However, for rice and corn residuals followed a decreasing trend and therefore yield stability of these crops was increased during the last 40 years. The same result was obtained with the environmental index but in this method reduction of yield stability in barley was lower than wheat. Based on the results, yield and yield stability of cereals crops in Iran increased during the last 40 years. However, the percentage increase in stability is lower than that of yield. Application of nitrogen fertilizers was led to reduction in stability. Yield stability of wheat, barley, rice, corn and overall cereals was improved with increasing their cultivated area.

  12. Long-term trends in restoration and associated land treatments in the southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Stella M.; Munson, Seth M.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.; Bradford, John B.; Butterfield, Bradley J.

    2018-01-01

    Restoration treatments, such as revegetation with seeding or invasive species removal, have been applied on U.S. public lands for decades. Temporal trends in these management actions have not been extensively summarized previously, particularly in the southwestern United States where invasive plant species, drought, and fire have altered dryland ecosystems. We assessed long-term (1940–2010) trends in restoration using approximately 4,000 vegetation treatments conducted on Bureau of Land Management lands across the southwestern United States. We found that since 1940, the proportions of seeding and vegetation/soil manipulation (e.g. vegetation removal or plowing) treatments have declined, while the proportions of prescribed burn and invasive species treatments have increased. Treatments in pinyon-juniper and big sagebrush communities declined in comparison to treatments in desert scrub, creosote bush, and riparian woodland communities. Restoration-focused treatment objectives increased relative to resource extraction objectives. Species richness and proportion of native species used in seeding treatments also increased. Inflation-adjusted costs per area rose 750% for vegetation/soil manipulation, 600% for seeding, and 400% for prescribed burn treatments in the decades from 1981 to 2010. Seeding treatments were implemented in warmer and drier years when compared to the climate conditions of the entire study period and warmer and wetter years relative to several years before and after the treatment. These results suggest that treatments over a 70-year period on public lands in the southwestern United States are shifting toward restoration practices that are increasingly large, expensive, and related to fire and invasive species control.

  13. Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

    2018-05-01

    Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from

  14. Long-term Trends in Particulate Organic Carbon from a Low-Gradient Autotrophic Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, J.; Ford, W. I., III

    2014-12-01

    Recent insights from low-gradient streams dominated by fine surficial sediments have shown fluvial organic matter dynamics are governed by coupled hydrologic and biotic controls at event to seasonal timescales. Notwithstanding the importance of shorter timescales, quantity and quality of carbon in stream ecosystems at annual and decadal scales is of increased interest in order to understand if stream ecosystems are net stores or sinks of carbon and how stream carbon behaves under dynamic climate conditions. As part of an ongoing study in a low-gradient, agricultural watershed in the Bluegrass Region of Central Kentucky, an eight year dataset of transported particulate organic carbon (POC) was analyzed for the present study. The objective was to investigate if POC dynamics at multi-year timescales are governed by biotic or hydrologic processes. A statistical analysis using Empirical Mode Decomposition was performed on an 8 year dataset of transported sediment carbon, temperature, and log-transformed flowrates at the watershed outlet. Simulations from a previously validated, process-based, organic carbon model were utilized as further verification of drivers. Results from the analysis suggest that a 4 degree Celsius mean annual temperature shift corresponds to a 63% increase in organic carbon content at the main-stem, third order outlet and a 33% increase in organic carbon content at the main-stem inlet. Model and stable isotope results for the 8 year study support that long-term increases in organic carbon concentration are governed by biotic growth and humification of algal biomass in which increasing annual temperatures promote increased organic carbon production, relative to ecosystem respiration. This result contradicts conventional wisdom, suggesting projected warming trends will shift autotrophic freshwater systems to net heterotrophic, which has significant implications for the role of benthic stream ecosystems under changing climate conditions. Future work

  15. Long-Term Trend and Seasonal Variability of Horizontal Visibility in Nigerian Troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtar Balarabe

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A study of the long-term variability; trend and characteristics of visibility in four zones of Nigeria was carried out. Visibility and other meteorological data from NOAA-NCDC and aerosol index data over Nigeria during 1984–2013 are analyzed using time series and  simple regression model. There are significant decreasing trends for every region and season during the 30-years period; the fluctuations exhibited nearly similar pattern. The 30-year mean visibilities for the four zones (Sahel; North Central; Southern; and Coastal were 13.8 ± 3.9; 14.3 ± 4.2; 13.6 ± 3.5 and 12.8 ± 3.1 km with decreasing trends at the rates of 0.08; 0.06; 0.02 and 0.02 km/year. In all the zones; visibilities were better in summer while worse in Harmattan (dry season. During summer visibility was best in Sahel and North-central; however; in Harmattan visibility was best in southern and coastal zones. It was best between May and June (17.6; 18.9; 16.6 and 15.1 km with a second peak in September. The 30-year seasonal averages were 16.2 ± 2.1; 16.8 ± 2.4; 15.4 ± 1.8 and 14.0 ± 2.2 km in summer; and 10.2 ± 2.5; 10.9 ± 2.9; 11.0 ± 3.3 and 11.4 ± 3.0 km in Harmattan for the respective zones. Sahel and North Central had the worse visibility reduction during Harmattan compared with Southern and coastal areas. An analysis based on simple regression equation reveals a strong and negative relationship between visibility on one hand; AI; and AOD on the other hand. The analysis also discusses the variability regarding the frequency of occurrence of a dust storm; dust haze; and good visibility over the period of study.

  16. Long-term trends of native and non-native fish faunas in the American Southwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olden, J. D.

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental degradation and the proliferation of non-native fish species threaten the endemic, and highly unique fish faunas of the American Southwest. The present study examines long-term trends (> 160 years of fish species distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin and identifies those native species (n = 28 exhibiting the greatest rates of decline and those non-native species (n = 48 exhibiting the highest rates of spread. Among the fastest expanding invaders in the basin are red shiner (Cyprinella lutrensis, fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas, green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides, western mosquitofish (Gambussia affinis and channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus; species considered to be the most invasive in terms of their negative impacts on native fish communities. Interestingly, non-native species that have been recently introduced (1950+ have generally spread at substantially lower rates as compared to species introduced prior to this time (especially from 1920 to 1950, likely reflecting reductions in human-aided spread of species. We found general agreement between patterns of species decline and extant distribution sizes and official listing status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. ‘Endangered’ species have generally experienced greater declines and have smaller present-day distributions compared to ‘threatened’ species, which in turn have shown greater declines and smaller distributions than those species not currently listed. A number of notable exceptions did exist, however, and these may provide critical information to help guide the future listing of species (i.e., identification of candidates and the upgrading or downgrading of current listed species that are endemic to the Lower Colorado River Basin. The strong correlation between probability estimates of local extirpation and patterns of native species decline and present-day distributions suggest a possible proactive

  17. Secular trends in dietary intake in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briefel, Ronette R; Johnson, Clifford L

    2004-01-01

    This review focuses on dietary intake and dietary supplement use among the U.S. population age 1-74 based on four National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys conducted in 1971-74, 1976-80, 1988-94, and 1999-2000. Secular trends in intake of energy, macronutrients, cholesterol, sodium, calcium, iron, folate, zinc, vitamins A and C, fruits, vegetables, and grain products are summarized. During the 30-year period, mean energy intake increased among adults, and changed little among children age 1-19, except for an increase among adolescent females. Factors contributing to increases in energy intake include increases in the percentage of the population eating away from home (particularly at fast-food restaurants), larger portion sizes of foods and beverages, increased consumption of sweetened beverages, changes in snacking habits, and improved dietary methodology. Dietary supplement use increased among adult men and women, decreased among children age 1-5, and was stable for children age 6-11 and adolescents.

  18. Secular trends in new childhood epidemics: insights from evolutionary medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brüne, Martin; Hochberg, Ze'ev

    2013-10-21

    In the last few decades, pediatric medicine has observed a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hitherto rare illnesses, among which obesity, diabetes, allergies and other autoimmune diseases stand out. In addition, secular trends towards earlier onset of puberty and sexual activity contribute to the psychological problems of youth and adolescents. All this has occurred in spite of the improved health care provision for children, yet traditional concepts of medicine have failed to explain these new "epidemics". A recent conference and science school of the European Society of Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) in Acre, Israel, has taken up this challenge. Experts across disciplines including medicine, anthropology and developmental psychology discussed potential causes of childhood ill-health from an evolutionary point-of-view. Seen from an evolutionary vantage point, the "epidemics" of childhood obesity, diabetes and psychological dysfunction appear, in part, to be related to a mismatch between ancestral adaptations and novel environmental contingencies. These include changing exposures to pathogens, which impact on the function of the immune system, as well as changing patterns of parenting, which influence the timing of puberty and the risk for developing psychopathology.

  19. Secular trend of menarche in Zagreb (Croatia) adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veček, Nenad; Veček, Andrea; Zajc Petranović, Matea; Tomas, Zeljka; Arch-Veček, Branka; Skarić-Jurić, Tatjana; Miličić, Jasna

    2012-01-01

    To study the secular trend of menarche in high-school urban adolescent girls (Zagreb, Croatia) over the last two decades, and to evaluate the possible impact of worsening of socio-economic conditions on age at menarche during the Croatian War of Independence (1991-1995). Three surveys of female adolescents aged 15-19 years: (a) 523 girls interviewed in 1990, (b) 888 girls interviewed in 1997, and (c) 399 girls interviewed in 2010. Self-reported age at menarche (in decimal years) was presented by age groups and year of interview. Differences in mean age at menarche between adolescent age groups as well as between surveys were tested using One-way ANOVA. The mean age at menarche was 12.82 years in 1990, 12.92 years in 1997 and 12.31 years in 2010. It increased by 0.10 years from 1990 to 1997 (p=0.290) and then declined by 0.61 years from 1997 to 2010 (pZagreb adolescents continued to decline significantly from 1990 to 2010 (p<0.001), in spite of a statistically insignificant initial increase between 1990 and 1997. When put in broader context, age at menarche mirrored socio-economic changes in the war period. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

    2018-02-01

    In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

  1. Long-term atmospheric visibility trend in Southeast China, 1973-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Junjun; Du, Ke; Wang, Kai; Yuan, Chung-Shin; Zhao, Juanjuan

    2012-11-01

    Particulate matter (PM) pollution in Southeast China has been worsening because of the rapid industrial development and urbanization, which have significant negative effects on atmospheric visibility. Characterization of the trend in atmospheric visibility is important for evaluating the impact of PM pollution on the impairment of visual air quality in urban and rural areas. Long-term trend in atmospheric visibility in Southeast China was analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 based on the meteorological data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database using four statistical methods: annual mean visibility, percentages of “very good” visibility and “bad” visibility, ridit analysis, and cumulative percentiles. The relationship of atmospheric extinction with Air Pollution Index (API) was studied. In addition, the effects of recent environment policies on visibility were studied. The results showed that the visibility had decreased in 94% stations of this region and prefecture stations had the highest decreasing trend of -3.1 km/decade during the entire period. The average visibility of all the 17 stations (i.e., region-average) declined at a rate of -2.0 km/decade, with a 38-year average of 18.1 km. Decrease in the percentage of “very good” visibility and increase in the percentage of “bad” visibility existed in 14 and 16 stations, respectively. Region-average percentage of “bad” visibility was in the range of 2.2-21.5%, with an increasing rate of 5.0% per decade, and that of “very good” visibility was 24.4-71.8%, with a decreasing rate of -10.7% per decade. During the entire period, county and prefecture stations had similar changing patterns and trends in visibility, while town stations had the least worsening trends. Region-average visibility was better before 1988 while worse after 1993 when comparing to the entire period, with the transition period of 1988-1993. The worst 20%, 50% and best 20% of region-average visibility

  2. Secular trends in gestational age and birthweight in twins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gielen, M; van Beijsterveldt, C E M; Derom, C; Vlietinck, R; Nijhuis, J G; Zeegers, M P A; Boomsma, D I

    2010-09-01

    In recent decades, the overall rate of preterm births has increased. The aim of the present study was to examine whether this trend is also seen for multiple gestations. More specifically, we examined if there has been a decrease in gestational age for live born monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins and if there has been a simultaneous change in birthweight. The contributions of fertility treatments and Caesarean sections were taken into consideration. All analyses were carried out in two large European twin cohorts. Cross-sectional study of 6310 live born twin pairs, born between 1964-2007, from the Belgian East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey and 14,712 twin pairs, born between 1990-2006, from the Netherlands Twin Register. Multiple regression analyses were performed with gestational age as outcome variable, and multilevel analysis with birthweight as outcome variable. All analyses were performed with and without adjustment for zygosity, parity, maternal age, mode of conception and delivery and, for the analyses of birthweight, gestational age. Gestational age decreased in a linear fashion from 1964 to 2007 with a decrease of 0.25 days per year in a similar way for MZ and DZ twins. Changes in birthweight depended on gestational age: up to 32 weeks, birthweight decreased and after 32 weeks birthweight increased. The frequency of infertility treatment and Caesarean sections, primiparity and advanced maternal age increased over the years, but none of these factors influenced the secular trends in gestational age and birthweight. The decrease in gestational age and change in birthweight in twins are sources of concern, especially for very preterm twins, for whom birthweight decreased. For twins born after 32 weeks, an increase in birthweight was observed and this is very likely the explanation for the decrease in gestational age.

  3. Secular Trends in the Physical Fitness of American Youth, Young Adults and Army Recruits

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knapik, Joseph

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature and existing databases for information on secular trends in the physical fitness of young Americans and describes changes in fitness during Basic Combat Training (BCT...

  4. Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to 2013. ... African Health Sciences ... respiratory, and digestive system diseases in urban areas and genito-urinary system diseases in rural areas decreased during this period ...

  5. Tendência secular em estatura: uma revisão da literatura Secular height trend: a literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Kac

    1999-09-01

    Full Text Available Esse trabalho constitui-se em uma revisão de literatura sobre tendência secular em estatura (TSE. Os principais tópicos abordados foram a definição do fenômeno, a utilização de dados históricos de estatura como estratégia alternativa no monitoramento de mudanças econômicas, as principais explicações teóricas sugeridas para a ocorrência do fenômeno, o início da antropometria militar, sua utilização no passado e no presente, e a magnitude da tendência em recrutas e na população infantil. Os principais achados revelaram que a TSE tem sido atribuída, sobretudo, a influências ambientais, em particular, a melhorias nas condições sanitárias, econômicas e sociais. As taxas médias de incremento variaram conforme a idade, o estrato sócio-econômico e o país considerado; portanto, deve-se ter cautela nas comparações interpopulacionais. A Segunda Guerra Mundial reduziu a tendência em diversos países, entre eles o Brasil, mas as taxas de incremento no pós-guerra foram ainda maiores do que as observadas no início do século. Constatou-se, por fim, que dados provenientes da antropometria militar são os mais utilizados para estimativas de TSE.This paper presents a literature review of secular height trends. The principal topics included were definition of the phenomenon, use of historical data sets on height as an alternative approach for monitoring economic changes, the main theoretical explanations of the phenomenon, the beginning of military anthropometry, and past and current use in measuring secular height trends in recruits and children. The most important results showed that the positive secular trend can be attributed to environmental influences, especially improvements in health, economic, and social conditions. The mean reported rates in height increases varied with age, socioeconomic status, and country, so one must exercise caution in drawing inferences. World War II slowed the trend in several countries

  6. Autonomous long-term gamma-spectrometric monitoring of submarine groundwater discharge trends in Hawaii

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dulai, Henrietta; Waters, Ch.A.; Kennedy, Joseph; Kamenik, Jan; Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Rez; Babinec, James; Jolly, James; Williamson, Mario

    2016-01-01

    We developed a fully autonomous underwater gamma-spectrometer for long-term coastal submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) monitoring. The instrument represents a significant improvement over previous submarine gamma-spectrometers in that it is very robust, has high sensitivity allowing high temporal resolution, and is completely autonomous. Here we describe the technical parameters of the new instrument as well as data collected over its 9-month deployment in Kiholo Bay, HI, USA. We also present methods to convert the measured activities to SGD rates. In Kiholo Bay, the derived SGD matched previous estimates but in addition it revealed previously undocumented short- and long-term patterns in SGD. (author)

  7. Long-Term United Kindrom Trends in the Breeding Phenology of the Common Frog, Rana temporaria

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Scott, W.A.; Pithart, David; Adamson, J. K.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 1 (2008), s. 89-96 ISSN 0022-1511 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Long-term * Common Frog * Breeding * Rana temporaria Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.888, year: 2008

  8. Autonomous long-term gamma-spectrometric monitoring of submarine groundwater discharge trends in Hawaii

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dulai, H.; Kameník, Jan; Waters, C. A.; Kennedy, J.; Babinec, J.; Jolly, J.; Williamson, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 307, č. 3 (2016), s. 1865-1870 ISSN 0236-5731. [10th International Conference on Methods and Applications of Radioanalytical Chemistry (MARC). Kailua Kona, 12.04.2015-17.04.2015] Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : submarine groundwater discharge * long-term SGD monitoring * underwater gammaspectrometry Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation Impact factor: 1.282, year: 2016

  9. Long-term trends in nutrient budgets of the western Dutch Wadden Sea (1976–2012)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jung, A.S; Brinkman, A.G.; Folmer, E.O.; Herman, P.M.J.; van der Veer, H.W.; Philippart, C.J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Long-term field observations of nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] concentrations were used to construct nutrient budgets for the western Dutch Wadden Sea between 1976 and 2012. Nutrients come into the western Dutch Wadden Sea via river runoff, through exchange with the coastal zone of the North Sea,

  10. Long term trends in economic inequality : Lessons from colonial Botswana 1921–1974

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, Jutta; Hillbom, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This article contributes to the growing literature on colonial legacies influencing long-term development. It focuses on Botswana, a case where the post-independence diamond-led economy has been considered an economic success story, despite its high levels of inequality. Here it is argued that this

  11. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  12. Secular trends in hip fractures worldwide: opposing trends East versus West.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballane, Ghada; Cauley, Jane A; Luckey, Marjorie M; Fuleihan, Ghada El-Hajj

    2014-08-01

    Despite wide variations in hip rates fractures worldwide, reasons for such differences are not clear. Furthermore, secular trends in the age-specific hip fracture rates are changing the world map of this devastating disease, with the highest rise projected to occur in developing countries. The aim of our investigation is to systematically characterize secular trends in hip fractures worldwide, examine new data for various ethnic groups in the United States, evidence for divergent temporal patterns, and investigate potential contributing factors for the observed change in their epidemiology. All studies retrieved through a complex Medline Ovid search between 1966 and 2013 were examined. For each selected study, we calculated the percent annual change in age-standardized hip fracture rates de-novo. Although occurring at different time points, trend breaks in hip fracture incidence occurred in most Western countries and Oceania. After a steep rise in age-adjusted rates in these regions, a decrease became evident sometimes between the mid-seventies and nineties, depending on the country. Conversely, the data is scarce in Asia and South America, with evidence for a continuous rise in hip fracture rates, with the exception of Hong-Kong and Taiwan that seem to follow Western trends. The etiologies of these secular patterns in both the developed and the developing countries have not been fully elucidated, but the impact of urbanization is at least one plausible explanation. Data presented here show close parallels between rising rates of urbanization and hip fractures across disparate geographic locations and cultures. Once the proportion of the urban population stabilized, hip fracture rates also stabilize or begin to decrease perhaps due to the influence of other factors such as birth cohort effects, changes in bone mineral density and BMI, osteoporosis medication use and/or lifestyle interventions such as smoking cessation, improvement in nutritional status and fall

  13. Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

    2013-12-01

    ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the

  14. Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisaki, Naho; Urayama, Kevin Yuji; Yoshii, Keisuke; Subramanian, S V; Yokoya, Susumu

    2017-10-01

    Japan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s. We observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969-2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan. LBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978-1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=-0.98; women, r=-0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014. Adult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  15. On the role of solar and geomagnetic activity in long-term trends in the atmosphere-ionosphere system

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 67, č. 1-2 (2005), s. 83-92 ISSN 1364-6826 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK3012103; GA AV ČR IAA3042102 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Long-term trends * Atmosphere * Ionosphere * Solar activity * Geomagnetic activity Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.309, year: 2005

  16. The price of crude oil between 1973 et 2014: a cyclical trend over the long term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bui Xuan Hoi

    2015-01-01

    In 2014, given the geopolitical events occurring in regions that are highly sensitive for oil markets - Iraq, Iran, Syria, Russia, the Ukraine, etc. -, one could have expected a hike in the price of a barrel of crude oil. In fact, the opposite happened. Does this mean the end of a cycle characterised by high prices and the beginning of a new cycle epitomised by low prices on the international market place? What is really the mechanism behind long term price formation? Some of the answers emanate from the analysis of the 1973-2014 period. (author)

  17. Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper; Carstensen, Jacob; Conley, Daniel J.

    2017-01-01

    the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we......Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over...

  18. LONG-TERM TREND OF SOLAR CORONAL HOLE DISTRIBUTION FROM 1975 TO 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujiki, K.; Tokumaru, M.; Hayashi, K.; Satonaka, D. [Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa, Nagoya Aichi 464-8601 (Japan); Hakamada, K., E-mail: fujiki@isee.nagoya-u.ac.jp [Department of Natural Science and Mathematics, Chubu University, 1200 Matsumoto-cho, Kasugai, Aichi 487-8501 (Japan)

    2016-08-20

    We developed an automated prediction technique for coronal holes using potential magnetic field extrapolation in the solar corona to construct a database of coronal holes appearing from 1975 February to 2015 July (Carrington rotations from 1625 to 2165). Coronal holes are labeled with the location, size, and average magnetic field of each coronal hole on the photosphere and source surface. As a result, we identified 3335 coronal holes and found that the long-term distribution of coronal holes shows a similar pattern known as the magnetic butterfly diagram, and polar/low-latitude coronal holes tend to decrease/increase in the last solar minimum relative to the previous two minima.

  19. Trends in precipitation extremes and long-term memory of runoff records in Zhejiang, East China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, Y.; Tian, Ye; Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Zhang, Qingqing; Lin, Shengji; Franks, Steward W.; Boegh, Eva; Blyth, Eleanor; Hannah, David M.; Yilmaz, Koray K.

    2011-01-01

    Extreme weather events have a huge impact on human beings and therefore it is of vital importance to investigate trends in relevant climatological and hydrological variables. In this study, precipitation and streamflow trends in Zhejiang Province in east China are analysed. Trends in annual and

  20. Wheat Yield Trend and Soil Fertility Status in Long Term Rice-Rice-Wheat Cropping System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabin Rawal

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A long-term soil fertility experiment under rice-rice-wheat system was performed to evaluate the long term effects of inorganic fertilizer and manure applications on soil properties and grain yield of wheat. The experiment began since 1978 was laid out in randomized complete block design with 9 treatments replicated 3 times. From 1990 onwards, periodic modifications have been made in all the treatments splitting the plots in two equal halves of 4 x 3 m2 leaving one half as original. In the original treatments, recent data revealed that the use of Farm Yard Manure (FYM @10 t ha-1 gave significantly (P≤0.05 higher yield of 2.3 t ha-1 in wheat, whereas control plot gave the lowest grain yield of 277 kg ha-1. Similarly, in the modified treatments, the use of FYM @10 t ha-1 along with inorganic Nitrogen (N and Potassium oxide (K2O @ 50 kg ha-1 produced significantly (P≤0.05 the highest yield of 2.4 t/ha in wheat. The control plot with an indigenous nutrient supply only produced wheat yield of 277 kg ha-1 after 35th year completion of rice-rice-wheat system. A sharp decline in wheat yields was noted in minus N, phosphorus (P, Potassium (K treatments during recent years. Yields were consistently higher in the N:P2O5:K2O and FYM treatments than in treatments, where one or more nutrients were lacking. The application of P2O5 and K2O caused a partial recovery of yield in P and K deficient plots. There was significant (P≤0.05 effect of use of chemical fertilizers and manure on soil properties. The soil analysis data showed an improvement in soil pH (7.8, soil organic matter (4.1%, total N content (0.16%, available P (503.5 kg P2O5 ha-1 and exchangeable K (137.5 kg K2O ha-1 in FYM applied treatments over all other treatments. The findings showed that the productivity of the wheat can be increased and sustained by improving nutrient through the integrated use of organic and inorganic manures in long term.

  1. Modeling long-term yield trends of Miscanthusxgiganteus using experimental data from across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lesur, Claire; Jeuffroy, Marie-Hélène; Makowski, David

    2013-01-01

    and the ceiling phases and (ii) to determine whether M. giganteus ceiling phase is followed by a decline phase where yields decrease across years. Data were analyzed through comparisons between a set of statistical growth models. The model that best fitted the experimental data included a decline phase....... The decline intensity and the value of several other model parameters, such as the maximum yield reached during the ceiling phase or the duration of the establishment phase, were highly variable. The highest maximum yields were obtained in the experiments located in the southern part of the studied area....... giganteus is known to have an establishment phase during which annual yields increased as a function of crop age, followed by a ceiling phase, the duration of which is unknown. We built a database including 16 European long-term experiments (i) to describe the yield evolution during the establishment...

  2. Long term trend analysis of emergency power diesel generator reliability in german nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotthoff, K.; Maqua, M.

    1990-01-01

    The paper deals with a long-term investigation on the availability of diesel generators. This investigation has been performed in two steps in 1980/81 and 1988/89. It is based on the operating experiences of a total of 110 diesel generators in 20 German NPP's. The overall probability of diesel failure during start and short-time operation amounts to about 5E-3/demand. Compared to the result of the first part of the investigation (8E-3/demand) there has been some further improvement of diesel generator performance in recent years. The upper limit calculated for the probability of common mode failures (about 6E-4/demand) is approximately one order of magnitude smaller. The influence of various parameters on the failure probability has been discussed. A statistically significant dependence could not be identified

  3. Investigation of short and long term trends in chemical composition of Eastern Mediterranean aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    A collaborative study was started with the Middle East Technical University, Environmental Engineering Department in 2004 in order to determine the transport of air pollutants and their deposition rates to Eastern Mediterranean with the ultimate aim of filling the gaps in knowledge on the current status of Eastern Mediterranean air quality profile. Collection sufficient amount of representative samples, analyzes of the collected samples with high accuracy and precision and interpretation of generated data are crucial efforts. To attain this goal, EDXRF spectrometer, which is a rapid, reliable and sensitive analytical instrument, located at our center was employed in analysis of the collected samples after calibration with 'NIST 2783 Air Particles on Filter'. The effectiveness of the control strategies taken on the emissions was discussed by investigating the short and long term variations in the chemical composition of samples collected between 1993 and 2001 at Antalya station. In this context, generated data set was studied for short (daily) term, seasonal and long term variations. It has been found that short term variations in the concentrations of pollutants in short time scale are highly episodic. The concentration of measured pollutants was changed 10-20 folds in the subsequent two days. The most important factors affecting the chemical composition of pollutants in short time interval are meteorological factors such as precipitation and variations observed at the emission strength of pollutants. The declined in Pb concentrations at the Antalya station was attributed to observed decrease in Pb emissions in Europe after the introduction of leaded gasoline. Highest summer averages were reported for anthropogenic pollutants in summer months. Aegean Sea (Izmir-Aliaga) studies of the project will be completed this year

  4. Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

  5. Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botlaguduru, Venkata S V; Kommalapati, Raghava R; Huque, Ziaul

    2018-04-19

    The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (EPA AQS Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990-2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000-2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying NO X emissions, particularly that of lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOC). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), while 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post-2000 could be attributed to NO X emissions reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000-2016, and 0.155

  6. Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Due Pernille

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates and discusses the consequences of measurement changes introduced in long-term trend analyses. Methods We used Danish data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC study collected in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Analyses were conducted on comparable questionnaire-based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871 from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. Results The prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values Conclusion Fruit consumption among Danish schoolchildren decreased from 1988 to 2002 with an increase since 2002. We suggest that the increase may be attributable to a nation-wide initiative conducted in Denmark since 2001 to increase the intake of fruit and vegetables in the population. Still, the results imply that a substantial proportion of Danish schoolchildren do not meet the nationally recommended daily intake of fruit. Our analyses indicate that the observed trends are not

  7. Long-term trends in foF2: their estimating and origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Wan

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with two problems, methods of foF2 trend determination and origin of trends in foF2, both being controversial in current literature. We found that various regression-based methods and artificial neural network-based method of Yue et al. (2006 provided comparable results within uncertainties caused mainly by various ways of removing/suppressing the dominant solar cycle effect. The role of geomagnetic activity in the observed trends in foF2 was probably substantial and might be still even rather dominant in the last quarter of the 20th century.

  8. Health Care Cost Growth and Demographic Trends Drive the Long-Term Fiscal Challenge

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2008-01-01

    ... health care costs and known demographic trends. In fact, the oldest members of the baby boom generation are now eligible for Social Security retirement benefits and will be eligible for Medicare benefits in less than 3 years...

  9. Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

    2015-04-01

    This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

  10. Solar Cycle Response and Long-Term Trends in the Mesospheric Metal Layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawkins, E. C. M.; Plane, J. M. C.; Chipperfield, M.; Feng, W.; Marsh, D. R.; Hoffner, J.; Janches, D.

    2016-01-01

    The meteoric metal layers (Na, Fe, and K) which form as a result of the ablation of incoming meteors act as unique tracers for chemical and dynamical processes that occur within the upper mesosphere lower thermosphere region. In this work, we examine whether these metal layers are sensitive Fe indicators of decadal long-term changes within the upper atmosphere. Output from a whole-atmosphere climate model is used to assess the response of the Na, K, and Fe layers across a 50 year period (1955-2005). At short timescales, the K layer has previously been shown to exhibit a very different seasonal behavior compared to the other metals. Here we show that this unusual behavior is also exhibited at longer time scales (both the 11 year solar cycle and 50 year periods), where K displays a much more pronounced response to atmospheric temperature changes than either Na or Fe. The contrasting solar cycle behavior of the K and Na layers predicted by the model is confirmed using satellite and lidar observations for the period 2004-2013.

  11. Long-term trends in California mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations of black carbon and organic aerosol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Brian C; Goldstein, Allen H; Harley, Robert A

    2015-04-21

    A fuel-based approach is used to assess long-term trends (1970-2010) in mobile source emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA, including both primary emissions and secondary formation). The main focus of this analysis is the Los Angeles Basin, where a long record of measurements is available to infer trends in ambient concentrations of BC and organic carbon (OC), with OC used here as a proxy for OA. Mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations have decreased similarly, reflecting the importance of on- and off-road engines as sources of BC and OA in urban areas. In 1970, the on-road sector accounted for ∼90% of total mobile source emissions of BC and OA (primary + secondary). Over time, as on-road engine emissions have been controlled, the relative importance of off-road sources has grown. By 2010, off-road engines were estimated to account for 37 ± 20% and 45 ± 16% of total mobile source contributions to BC and OA, respectively, in the Los Angeles area. This study highlights both the success of efforts to control on-road emission sources, and the importance of considering off-road engine and other VOC source contributions when assessing long-term emission and ambient air quality trends.

  12. Evaluating the Long-term Water Cycle Trends at a Global-scale using Satellite and Assimilation Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Lakshmi, V.

    2017-12-01

    Global-scale soil moisture and rainfall products retrieved from remotely sensed and assimilation datasets provide an effective way to monitor near surface soil moisture content and precipitation with sub-daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we employed the concept of the stored precipitation fraction Fp(f) in order to examine the long-term water cycle trends at a global-scale. The analysis was done for Fp(f) trends with the various geophysical aspects such as climate zone, land use classifications, amount of vegetation, and soil properties. Furthermore, we compared a global-scale Fp(f) using different microwave-based satellite soil moisture datasets. The Fp(f) is calculated by utilized surface soil moisture dataset from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, Advanced Scatterometer, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, and precipitation information from Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Global Land Data Assimilation System. Different results from microwave-based soil moisture dataset showed discordant results particularly over arid and highly vegetated regions. The results of this study provide us new insights of the long-term water cycle trends over different land surface areas. Thereby also highlighting the advantages of the recently available GPM and SMAP datasets for the uses in various hydrometeorological applications.

  13. Long-term trends in nitrogen isotope composition and nitrogen concentration in brazilian rainforest trees suggest changes in nitrogen cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hietz, Peter; Dünisch, Oliver; Wanek, Wolfgang

    2010-02-15

    Direct or indirect anthropogenic effects on ecosystem nitrogen cycles are important components of global change. Recent research has shown that N isotopes in tree rings reflect changes in ecosystem nitrogen sources or cycles and can be used to study past changes. We analyzed trends in two tree species from a remote and pristine tropical rainforest in Brazil, using trees of different ages to distinguish between the effect of tree age and long-term trends. Because sapwood differed from heartwood in delta(15)N and N concentration and N can be translocated between living sapwood cells, long-term trends are best seen in dead heartwood. Heartwood delta(15)N in Spanish cedar (Cedrela odorata) and big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) increased with tree age, and N concentrations increased with age in Cedrela. Controlling for tree age, delta(15)N increased significantly during the past century even when analyzing only heartwood and after removing labile N compounds. In contrast to northern temperate and boreal forests where wood delta(15)N often decreased, the delta(15)N increase in a remote rainforest is unlikely to be a direct signal of changed N deposition. More plausibly, the change in N isotopic composition indicates a more open N cycle, i.e., higher N losses relative to internal N cycling in the forest, which could be the result of changed forest dynamics.

  14. The National Veteran Sleep Disorder Study: Descriptive Epidemiology and Secular Trends, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Melannie; Ray, Meredith A; Hébert, James R; Youngstedt, Shawn D; Zhang, Hongmei; Steck, Susan E; Bogan, Richard K; Burch, James B

    2016-07-01

    A large proportion of individuals affected by sleep disorders are untreated and susceptible to accidents, injuries, long-term sequelae (e.g., risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, psychiatric disorders), and increased mortality risk. Few studies have examined the scope and magnitude of sleep disorder diagnoses in the United States (US) or factors influencing them. Veterans are particularly vulnerable to factors that elicit or exacerbate sleep disorders. This serial cross-sectional study characterized secular trends in diagnosed sleep disorders among veterans seeking care in US Veterans Health Administration facilities over an eleven-year span (FY2000-2010, n = 9,786,778). Electronic medical records from the national Veterans Administration Informatics and Computing Infrastructure database were accessed. Cases were defined using diagnostic codes specified by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine. Age-adjusted annual prevalence was summarized by sex, race, combat exposure, body mass index, and comorbid diagnoses (cardiovascular disease, cancer, mental disorders). Sleep apnea (47%) and insomnia (26%) were the most common diagnoses among patients with any sleep disorder. There was a six-fold relative increase in total sleep disorder prevalence over the study period. Posttraumatic stress disorder, which tripled over the same time period, was associated with the highest prevalence of sleep disorders (16%) among the comorbid conditions evaluated. The results indicate a growing need for integration of sleep disorder management with patient care and health care planning among US veterans. A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1331. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  15. Calibration Uncertainty in Ocean Color Satellite Sensors and Trends in Long-term Environmental Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turpie, Kevin R.; Eplee, Robert E., Jr.; Franz, Bryan A.; Del Castillo, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    Launched in late 2011, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft is being evaluated by NASA to determine whether this sensor can continue the ocean color data record established through the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). To this end, Goddard Space Flight Center generated evaluation ocean color data products using calibration techniques and algorithms established by NASA during the SeaWiFS and MODIS missions. The calibration trending was subjected to some initial sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Here we present an introductory assessment of how the NASA-produced time series of ocean color is influenced by uncertainty in trending instrument response over time. The results help quantify the uncertainty in measuring regional and global biospheric trends in the ocean using satellite remote sensing, which better define the roles of such records in climate research.

  16. Long-term trends in nutrient budgets of the western Dutch Wadden Sea (1976-2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, A. S.; Brinkman, A. G.; Folmer, E. O.; Herman, P. M. J.; van der Veer, H. W.; Philippart, C. J. M.

    2017-09-01

    Long-term field observations of nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] concentrations were used to construct nutrient budgets for the western Dutch Wadden Sea between 1976 and 2012. Nutrients come into the western Dutch Wadden Sea via river runoff, through exchange with the coastal zone of the North Sea, neighbouring tidal basins and through atmospheric deposition (for N). The highest concentrations in phosphorus and nitrogen were observed in the mid-1980s. Improved phosphorus removal at waste water treatment plants, management of fertilization in agriculture and removal of phosphates from detergents led to reduced riverine nutrient inputs and, consequently, reduced nutrient concentrations in the Wadden Sea. The budgets suggest that the period of the initial net import of phosphorus and nitrogen switched to a net export in 1981 for nitrogen and in 1992 for phosphorus. Such different behaviour in nutrient budgets during the rise and fall of external nutrient concentrations may be the result of different sediment-water exchange dynamics for P and N. It is hypothesized that during the period of increasing eutrophication (1976-1981) P, and to a lesser degree N, were stored in sediments as organic and inorganic nutrients. In the following period (1981-1992) external nutrient concentrations (especially in the North Sea) decreased, but P concentrations in the Wadden Sea remained high due to prolonged sediment release, whilst denitrification removed substantial amounts of N. From 1992 onwards, P and N budgets were closed by net loss, most probably because P stores were then depleted and denitrification continued. Under the present conditions (lower rates of sediment import and depleted P stores), nutrient concentrations in this area are expected to be more strongly influenced by wind-driven exchange with the North Sea and precipitation-driven discharge from Lake IJssel. This implies that the consequences of climate change will be more important, than during the 1970s and 1980s.

  17. Long term climatology and trends of heat and cold waves over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    at the rate 0.15 and 0.17 per year, respectively, with significance at 95% confidence level. Zone-IIIB on ... ever, few stations have shown significant decreasing trends in heat ..... per hectare) have been tested and were found best for resilience ...

  18. Thinning method and intensity influence long-term mortality trends in a red pine forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew D. Powers; Brian J. Palik; John B. Bradford; Shawn Fraver; Christopher R. Webster

    2010-01-01

    Tree mortality shapes forest development, but rising mortality can represent lost production or an adverse response to changing environmental conditions. Thinning represents a strategy for reducing mortality rates, but different thinning techniques and intensities could have varying impacts depending on how they alter stand structure. We analyzed trends in stand...

  19. Detection of field significant long-term monotonic trends in spring yields

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ledvinka, O.; Lamačová, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 5 (2015), s. 1463-1484 ISSN 1436-3240 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Cross-correlation * Groundwater monitoring * Serial correlation * Spring yields * Trend analysis Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 2.237, year: 2015

  20. Long-Term Trends in Nutrient Concentrations and Fluxes in Streams Draining to Lake Tahoe, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domagalski, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Lake Tahoe, situated in the rain shadow of the eastern Sierra Nevada at an elevation of 1,897 meters, has numerous small to medium sized tributaries that are sources of nutrients and fine sediment. The Tahoe watershed is relatively small and the surface area of the lake occupies about 38% of the total watershed area (1,313 km2). Each stream contributing water to the lake therefore also occupies a small watershed, mostly forested, with typical trees being Jeffrey, Ponderosa, or Sugar Pine and White Fir. Outflow from the lake contributes to downstream uses such as water supply and ecological resources. Only about 6% of the watershed is urbanized or residential land, and wastewater is exported to adjacent basins and not discharged to the lake as part of a plan to maintain water clarity. The lake's exceptional clarity has been diminishing due to phytoplankton and fine sediment, prompting development of management plans to improve water quality. Much of the annual discharge and flux of nutrients to the lake results from snowmelt in the spring and summer months, and climatic changes have begun to shift this melt to earlier time frames. Winter rains on urbanized land also contribute to nutrient loads. To understand the relative importance of land use, climate, and other factors affecting stream concentrations and fluxes, a Weighted Regression on Time Discharge and Season (WRTDS) model documented trends over a time frame of greater than 25 years. Ten streams have records of discharge, nutrient (NO3, NH3, OP, TP, TKN) and sediment data to complete this analysis. Both urbanized and non-urbanized locations generally show NO3 trending down in the 1980s. Some locations show initially decreasing orthophosphate trends, followed by small significant increases in concentration and fluxes starting around 2000 to 2005. Although no wastewater enters the streams, ammonia concentrations mimic those of orthophosphate, with initially negative trends in concentration and flux followed by

  1. Long-term trends of changes in pine and oak foliar nitrogen metabolism in response to chronic nitrogen amendments at Harvard Forest, MA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakesh Minocha; Swathi A. Turlapati; Stephanie Long; William H. McDowell; Subhash C. Minocha

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements...

  2. A Lagrangian analysis of mid-latitude stratospheric ozone variability and long-term trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, G.; Wernli, H.; Staehelin, J.; Peter, T.

    2002-05-01

    A systematic Lagrangian investigation is performed of wintertime high-resolution stratospheric ozone soundings at Payerne, Switzerland, from January 1970 to March 2001. For every ozone sounding, 10-day backward trajectories have been calculated on 16 isentropic levels using NCEP reanalysis data. Both the minimum/maximum latitude and potential vorticity (PV) averaged along the trajectories are used as indicators of the air parcels' ``origin''. The importance of transport for the understandin g of single ozone profiles is confirmed by a statistical analysis which shows that negative/positive ozone deviations gener ally coincide with transport from regions with climatologically low/high ozone values. The stable relationship between PV and ozone for the 32 year period indicates either no direct chemical impact or no temporal change of this impact. In the upper layer the PV-ozone relationship changes significantly after 1987 and a separate trend analysis for air masses transported from the polar, midlatitude and subtropical regions shows negative ozone trends in all three categories (with a maximum for the polar region). This is not direct evidence for, but would be in agreement with, an increased chemical ozone depletion in the Arctic since the late 1980s. The reasons for the negative trend in the mid-stratospheric air masses with subtropical origin that are in qualitative agreement with recent satellite observations are presently unknown.

  3. Long-term trends in radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopatin, E. (Univ. of Joensuu (Finland)); Kolstroem, T. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar (Russian Federation)); Spiecker, H. (Univ. of Freiburg (Germany))

    2008-07-01

    Komi is situated on the eastern boundary of the European part of Russia, in the boreal region where large areas of natural forest still exist. Using radial growth measurements it was possible to attain positive long-term trends of growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) in the Komi Republic. Increases in the radial growth of Siberian spruce in the forest-tundra were 134% and in the northern taiga zone 35% over successive 50-year periods from 1901 to 1950 and from 1951 to 2000. Respectively, in the middle taiga zone a 76% increase in radial growth was found (over 100 years), whilst in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The increase in radial growth of Scots pine in the northern taiga zone was 32%. In the middle taiga zone the radial growth increase in Scots pine was 55% and in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The long-term growth trends of Komi were compared with those in other parts of Europe. (orig.)

  4. Increasing Juniperus virginiana L. pollen in the Tulsa atmosphere: long-term trends, variability, and influence of meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flonard, Michaela; Lo, Esther; Levetin, Estelle

    2018-02-01

    In the Tulsa area, the Cupressaceae is largely represented by eastern red cedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.). The encroachment of this species into the grasslands of Oklahoma has been well documented, and it is believed this trend will continue. The pollen is known to be allergenic and is a major component of the Tulsa atmosphere in February and March. This study examined airborne Cupressaceae pollen data from 1987 to 2016 to determine long-term trends, pollen seasonal variability, and influence of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations. Pollen was collected through means of a Burkard sampler and analyzed with microscopy. Daily pollen concentrations and yearly pollen metrics showed a high degree of variability. In addition, there were significant increases over time in the seasonal pollen index and in peak concentrations. These increases parallel the increasing population of J. virginiana in the region. Pollen data were split into pre- and post-peak categories for statistical analyses, which revealed significant differences in correlations of the two datasets when analyzed with meteorological conditions. While temperature and dew point, among others were significant in both datasets, other factors, like relative humidity, were significant only in one dataset. Analyses using wind direction showed that southerly and southwestern winds contributed to increased pollen concentrations. This study confirms that J. virginiana pollen has become an increasing risk for individuals sensitive to this pollen and emphasizes the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in other areas.

  5. Prevalent Long-Term Trends of Hypertension in Austria: The Impact of Obesity and Socio-Demography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Großschädl

    Full Text Available Globally there are only less long-term-studies on hypertension available to provide reliable estimates and identify risk groups. This study aims to analyse the prevalence and long-term-trend of hypertension in Austria, recognize affected subpopulations and investigate social inequalities.This representative population-based study is based on self-reported data of adults (mean age: 47.7 ± 17.5; n = 178,818 that were taken from five health surveys between 1973 and 2007. An adjustment of self-reported BMI was performed based on a preliminary validation study. Absolute changes (AC and aetiologic fractions (AF were calculated from logistic regressions in order to measure trends. To quantify the extent of social inequality, a relative index of inequality (RII was computed.During the study period the age-standardized hypertension prevalence increased from 1.0% to 18.8%, with a considerable rise from 1991 onwards. There was a positive trend in all subpopulations, with the highest AC among obese women (+50.2% and obese subjects aged 75 years and older (+54.4%, whereas the highest risk was observed among the youngest obese adults (AF: 99.4%. The RII for hypertension was higher for women than men, but in general unstable during the investigation period.Obesity and older age are significant factors for increased morbidity of hypertension. The most undesirable trends occurred in obese women and obese subjects aged 75 years and older. These risk groups should be given special attention when planning hypertension prevention programs. The high increase in the prevalence of hypertension is due to different aspects, e.g. a demographic change and a change in the definition of hypertension. These findings help to understand why hypertension is becoming more common in the Austrian population.

  6. Coping with climate variability and long-term climate trends for Nicaraguan maize-bean farmers (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.

  7. Long-term trends in child and youth injury mortality in Taiwan, 1989-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Lin Lu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Injuries are the leading causes of death and contribute greatly to morbidity in children. Our study examined injuries′ age and gender-specific variations over time among children 0-19, from 1989 to 2007. Materials and Methods: Numbers of deaths caused by injury are drawn from Taiwan′s official Vital Statistics System. Mortality was age-adjusted to the US 2000 standard population. Temporal trends were analyzed by linear regression. Results: Both genders′ annual mortality rates and proportional mortality ratios of unintentional injuries declined significantly during 1989-2007. Conversely, an increasing trend of intentional deaths occurred. In general, during 1992-2007, increasing the rates of suicide deaths in ages 10-19 and of homicide deaths in ages 0-9 occurred. Boys had more suicide deaths than did girls. Conclusions: Unlike unintentional injuries, intentional injuries increased over the 1989-2007 period. Deaths in the subgroups of ages 0-19 and categorized by genders were caused by varying injuries.

  8. Long-term trends in the St. Marys River open water fish community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Fielder, David G.; Godby, Neal; Bowen, Anjanette; O'Connor, Lisa; Parrish, Josh; Greenwood, Susan; Chong, Stephen; Wright, Greg

    2011-01-01

    We examined trends in species composition and abundance of the St. Marys River fish community. Abundance data were available approximately once every six years from 1975 through 2006, and size and age data were available from 1995 through 2006. We also compared survey data in 2006 with results of a concurrent creel survey that year, as well as data from prior surveys spanning a 69 year time frame. The St. Marys River fish community was best characterized as a coolwater fish community with apparent little variation in species composition, and only slight variation in overall fish abundance since 1975. However, we did find recent trends in abundance among target species sought by anglers: centrarchids increased, percids appeared stable, and both northern pike Esox lucius and cisco Coregonus artedii declined. Survey results suggested that walleye (Sander vitreus) and yellow perch (Perca flavescens) experienced moderate exploitation but benefited from recent strong recruitment and faster growth. Mechanisms underlying declines of northern pike and cisco were not clear; reduced abundance could have resulted from high exploitation, variation in recruitment, or a combination of both factors. Despite these challenges, the St. Marys River fish community appears remarkably stable. We suggest that managers insure that creel surveys occur simultaneously with assessments, but periodic gill net surveys may no longer provide adequate data in support of recent, more complex management objectives. While additional surveys would add costs, more frequent data might ensure sustainability of a unique fish community that supports a large proportion of angler effort on Lake Huron.

  9. Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Orlowsky

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation-based datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa. Also for the future, projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI and soil moisture (SMA drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However, projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends towards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological and soil moisture drought reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs generally becomes the dominant source of spread by the end of the 21st century, especially for soil moisture drought. In comparison, the uncertainty from Green-House Gas (GHG concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source

  10. Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme

  11. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

  12. Identification of sources and long term trends for pollutants in the arctic using isentropic trajectory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahura, A.; Jaffe, D.; Harris, J.

    2003-07-01

    The understanding of factors driving climate and ecosystem changes in the Arctic requires careful consideration of the sources, correlation and trends for anthropogenic pollutants. The database from the NOAA-CMDL Barrow Observatory (71deg.17'N, 156deg.47'W) is the longest and most complete record of pollutant measurements in the Arctic. It includes observations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O{sub 3}), aerosol scattering coefficient ({sigma}{sub sp}), aerosol number concentration (NC{sub asl}), etc. The objectives of this study are to understand the role of long-range transport to Barrow in explaining: (1) the year-to-year variations, and (2) the trends in the atmospheric chemistry record at the NOAA-CMDL Barrow observatory. The key questions we try to answer are: 1. What is the relationship between various chemical species measured at Barrow Observatory, Alaska and transport pathways at various altitudes? 2. What are the trends of species and their relation to transport patterns from the source regions? 3. What is the impact of the Prudhoe Bay emissions on the Barrow's records? To answer on these questions we apply the following main research tools. First, it is an isentropic trajectory model used to calculate the trajectories arriving at Barrow at three altitudes of 0.5, 1.5 and 3 km above sea level. Second - clustering procedure used to divide the trajectories into groups based on source regions. Third - various statistical analysis tools such as the exploratory data analysis, two component correlation analysis, trend analysis, principal components and factor analysis used to identify the relationship between various chemical species vs. source regions as a function of time. In this study, we used the chemical data from the NOAA-CMDL Barrow observatory in combination with isentropic backward trajectories from gridded ECMWF data to understand the importance of various pollutant source regions on

  13. Identification of sources and long term trends for pollutants in the arctic using isentropic trajectory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahura, A.; Jaffe, D.; Harris, J.

    2003-01-01

    The understanding of factors driving climate and ecosystem changes in the Arctic requires careful consideration of the sources, correlation and trends for anthropogenic pollutants. The database from the NOAA-CMDL Barrow Observatory (71deg.17'N, 156deg.47'W) is the longest and most complete record of pollutant measurements in the Arctic. It includes observations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O 3 ), aerosol scattering coefficient (σ sp ), aerosol number concentration (NC asl ), etc. The objectives of this study are to understand the role of long-range transport to Barrow in explaining: (1) the year-to-year variations, and (2) the trends in the atmospheric chemistry record at the NOAA-CMDL Barrow observatory. The key questions we try to answer are: 1. What is the relationship between various chemical species measured at Barrow Observatory, Alaska and transport pathways at various altitudes? 2. What are the trends of species and their relation to transport patterns from the source regions? 3. What is the impact of the Prudhoe Bay emissions on the Barrow's records? To answer on these questions we apply the following main research tools. First, it is an isentropic trajectory model used to calculate the trajectories arriving at Barrow at three altitudes of 0.5, 1.5 and 3 km above sea level. Second - clustering procedure used to divide the trajectories into groups based on source regions. Third - various statistical analysis tools such as the exploratory data analysis, two component correlation analysis, trend analysis, principal components and factor analysis used to identify the relationship between various chemical species vs. source regions as a function of time. In this study, we used the chemical data from the NOAA-CMDL Barrow observatory in combination with isentropic backward trajectories from gridded ECMWF data to understand the importance of various pollutant source regions on atmospheric composition in the Arctic. We

  14. Trends of PM2.5 concentrations in China: A long term approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontes, Tânia; Li, Peilin; Barros, Nelson; Zhao, Pengjun

    2017-07-01

    The fast economic growth of China along the last two decades has created a strong impact on the environment. The occurrence of heavy haze pollution days is the most visible effect. Although many researchers have studied such problem, a high number of spatio-temporal limitations in the recent studies were identified. From our best knowledge the long trends of PM 2.5 concentrations were not fully investigated in China, in particular the year-to-year trends and the seasonal and daily cycles. Therefore, in this work the PM 2.5 concentrations collected from automatic monitors from five urban sites located in megacities with different climatic zones in China were analysed: Beijing (40°N), Chengdu (31°N), Guangzhou (23°N), Shanghai (31°N) and Shenyang (43°N). For an inter-comparison a meta-analysis was carried out. An evaluation conducted since 1999 demonstrates that PM 2.5 concentrations have been reduced until 2008, period which match with the occurrence of the Olympic Games. However, a seasonal analysis highlight that such decrease occurs mostly during warmer seasons than cold seasons. During winter PM 2.5 concentrations are typically 1.3 to 2.7 higher than in summer. The average daily cycle shows that the lowest and highest PM 2.5 concentrations often occurs in the afternoon and evening hours respectively. Such daily variations are mostly driven by the daily variation of the boundary layer depth and emissions. Although the PM 2.5 levels have showing signs of improvement, even during the warming season the values are still too high in comparison with the annual environmental standards of China (35 μg m -3 ). Moreover, during cold seasons the north regions have values twice higher than this limit. Thus, to fulfil these standards the governmental mitigation measures need to be strongly reinforced in order to optimize the daily living energy consumption, primarily in the north regions of China and during the winter periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

  15. Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Kivinen

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

  16. Long-term trends in the uptake of radiocesium in Rozites caperatus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandberg, M.

    2004-01-01

    Measurements of Cs-134 and Cs-137 in Rozites caperatus from 1991 to 2001 showed differences in the uptake pattern of Chernobyl and fallout derived radiocesium over time. The effective half-life of Chernobyl derived Cs-137 was determined to 12.4 years, whereas fallout derived Cs-137 had an effective...... half-life of 9.8 years. However, the trend for Chernobyl derived Cs-137 was clearly not linear. An effective average half-life of 3.1 years was determined for Chernobyl derived Cs-137 in the period from 1991 to 1994. The corresponding ecological half-life was 3.4 years. In the period from 1994 to 2001...... it is possible that the effective half-life was longer than the physical, which indicates that more Chernobyl cesium becomes available than disappears through radioactive decay. The difference may be due to depth distribution of radiocesium, i.e. fallout derived cesium have penetrated deeper than Chernobyl...

  17. Long-term trends in direct and indirect household energy intensities: a factor in dematerialisation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vringer, K.; Blok, K.

    2000-01-01

    Dematerialisation is assumed to contribute significantly to the alleviation of environmental problems. One of the possible causes of dematerialisation is a change in the consumption patterns of households. The aim of this article is to analyse changes in consumption patterns of Dutch households in the period between 1948 to 1996 in order to discover whether these changes have influenced the energy intensity of society. Due to the rise in consumption, the total household energy requirement per capita grew on average by 2.4 per cent per year over a period of 48 years (this figure ignores efficiency changes in the supplying sectors). In the same period the total energy intensity of households fluctuated but on average changed from 5.6 to 6.3 MJ/NLG, an increase of 0.25 per cent per year. If we exclude the direct energy consumption we find a slight decline in the indirect energy intensity, namely from 3.8 to 3.6 MJ/NLG ( - 0.14 per cent per year). No significant trends to a lower energy intensity are found and there is no indication of dematerialisation of the consumption patterns. If governments pursue a policy of sustainable development they have to take into account the fact that dematerialisation of the consumption pattern does not seem to be an autonomous process. (author)

  18. Emergency medical readmission: long-term trends and impact on mortality.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Glynn, Nigel

    2011-04-01

    There is increasing emphasis on prevention of emergency medical readmissions. The broad pattern of acute medical readmissions was studied over a seven-year period and the impact of any readmission on 30-day mortality was recorded. Significant predictors of outcome, including co-morbidity and illness severity score, were entered into a multivariate regression model, adjusting the univariate estimates of the readmission status on mortality. In total, 23,114 consecutive acute medical patients were admitted between 2002-8; the overall readmission rate was 27%. Readmission independently predicted an increased 30-day mortality; the odds ratio, was 1.12 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09 to 1.14). This fell to 1.05 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.08) when adjusted for outcome predictors including acute illness severity. The trend for readmissions was to progressively increase over time; the median times between consecutive admissions formed an exponential time series. Efforts to reduce or avoid readmissions may depend on an ability to modify the underlying chronic disease.

  19. Secular trends in menarcheal age in India-evidence from the Indian human development survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Kumar Pathak

    Full Text Available Evidence from a number of countries in Europe and North America point towards the secular declining trend in menarcheal age with considerable spatial variations over the past two centuries. Similar trends were reported in several developing countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, data corroborating any secular trend in the menarcheal age of the Indian population remained sparse and inadequately verified.We examined secular trends, regional heterogeneity and association of socioeconomic, anthropometric and contextual factors with menarcheal age among ever-married women (15-49 years in India. Using the pseudo cohort data approach, we fit multiple linear regression models to estimate secular trends in menarcheal age of 91394 ever-married women using the Indian Human Development Survey.The mean age at menarche among Indian women was 13.76 years (95 % CI: 13.75, 13.77 in 2005. It declined by three months from 13.83 years (95% CI: 13.81, 13.85 among women born prior to 1955-1964, to nearly 13.62 years (95% CI: 13.58, 13.67 among women born during late 1985-1989. However, these aggregate national figures mask extensive spatial heterogeneity as mean age at menarche varied from 15.0 years in Himachal Pradesh during 1955-1964 (95% CI: 14.89-15.11 to about 12.1 years in Assam (95% CI: 11.63-12.56 during 1985-1989.The regression analysis established a reduction of nearly one month per decade, suggesting a secular decline in age at menarche among Indian women. Notably, the menarcheal age was significantly associated with the area of residence, geographic region, linguistic groups, educational attainment, wealth status, caste and religious affiliations among Indian women.

  20. Historical trends and the long-term changes of the hydrological cycle components in a Mediterranean river basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzafou, A; Wagner, S; Dimitriou, E

    2018-04-29

    Identifying the historical hydrometeorological trends in a river basin is necessary for understanding the dominant interactions between climate, human activities and local hydromorphological conditions. Estimating the hydrological reference conditions in a river is also crucial for estimating accurately the impacts from human water related activities and design appropriate water management schemes. In this effort, the output of a regional past climate model was used, covering the period from 1660 to 1990, in combination with a dynamic, spatially distributed, hydrologic model to estimate the past and recent trends in the main hydrologic parameters such as overland flow, water storages and evapotranspiration, in a Mediterranean river basin. The simulated past hydrologic conditions (1660-1960) were compared with the current hydrologic regime (1960-1990), to assess the magnitude of human and natural impacts on the identified hydrologic trends. The hydrological components of the recent period of 2008-2016 were also examined in relation to the impact of human activities. The estimated long-term trends of the hydrologic parameters were partially assigned to varying atmospheric forcing due to volcanic activity combined with spontaneous meteorological fluctuations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Black Carbon and Sulfate Aerosols in the Arctic: Long-term Trends, Radiative Impacts, and Source Attributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Zhang, R.; Yang, Y.; Smith, S.; Rasch, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic has warmed dramatically in recent decades. As one of the important short-lived climate forcers, aerosols affect the Arctic radiative budget directly by interfering radiation and indirectly by modifying clouds. Light-absorbing particles (e.g., black carbon) in snow/ice can reduce the surface albedo. The direct radiative impact of aerosols on the Arctic climate can be either warming or cooling, depending on their composition and location, which can further alter the poleward heat transport. Anthropogenic emissions, especially, BC and SO2, have changed drastically in low/mid-latitude source regions in the past few decades. Arctic surface observations at some locations show that BC and sulfate aerosols had a decreasing trend in the recent decades. In order to understand the impact of long-term emission changes on aerosols and their radiative effects, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) equipped with an explicit BC and sulfur source-tagging technique to quantify the source-receptor relationships and decadal trends of Arctic sulfate and BC and to identify variations in their atmospheric transport pathways from lower latitudes. The simulation was conducted for 36 years (1979-2014) with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations. To minimize potential biases in modeled large-scale circulations, wind fields in the simulation are nudged toward an atmospheric reanalysis dataset, while atmospheric constituents including water vapor, clouds, and aerosols are allowed to evolve according to the model physics. Both anthropogenic and open fire emissions came from the newly released CMIP6 datasets, which show strong regional trends in BC and SO2 emissions during the simulation time period. Results show that emissions from East Asia and South Asia together have the largest contributions to Arctic sulfate and BC concentrations in the upper troposphere, which have an increasing trend. The strong decrease in emissions from Europe, Russia and

  2. Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration--data from Australia and the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrath, John; Selten, Jean-Paul; Chant, David

    2002-04-01

    Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland, Australia n=6630; The Netherlands n=24,474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration. Males and females were assessed separately. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research.

  3. Long-term Trends of Organic Carbon Concentrations in Freshwaters: Strengths and Weaknesses of Existing Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Filella

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Many articles published in the last few years start with the assumption that the past decades have seen an increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC concentrations in the rivers and lakes of the Northern Hemisphere. This study analyses whether the existing evidence supports this claim. With this aim, we have collected published studies where long series of organic carbon concentrations (i.e., longer than 10 years were analyzed for existing trends and have carefully evaluated the 63 articles found. Information has been collated in a comprehensive and comparable way, allowing readers to easily access it. The two main aspects considered in our analysis have been the analytical methods used and the data treatment methods applied. Both are sensitive issues because, on the one hand, the difficulties associated with correctly determining organic carbon concentrations in surface waters are well known, while, on the other, dealing with real environmental data (i.e., lack of normality, censoring, missing values, etc. is an extremely intricate matter. Other issues such as data reporting and the geographical location of the systems studied are also discussed. In conclusion, it is clear that organic carbon concentrations have increased in some surface waters in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1990s. However, due to a lack of data in many parts of the world, it is not known whether this phenomenon is general and, more importantly, in the areas for which such data do exist, the reporting and methodological problems in the published studies prevent any conclusion on the existence of a general temporal behavior of organic carbon from being drawn.

  4. Sampling design for long-term regional trends in marine rocky intertidal communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Gail V.; Shelley, Alice

    2013-01-01

    Probability-based designs reduce bias and allow inference of results to the pool of sites from which they were chosen. We developed and tested probability-based designs for monitoring marine rocky intertidal assemblages at Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve (GLBA), Alaska. A multilevel design was used that varied in scale and inference. The levels included aerial surveys, extensive sampling of 25 sites, and more intensive sampling of 6 sites. Aerial surveys of a subset of intertidal habitat indicated that the original target habitat of bedrock-dominated sites with slope ≤30° was rare. This unexpected finding illustrated one value of probability-based surveys and led to a shift in the target habitat type to include steeper, more mixed rocky habitat. Subsequently, we evaluated the statistical power of different sampling methods and sampling strategies to detect changes in the abundances of the predominant sessile intertidal taxa: barnacles Balanomorpha, the mussel Mytilus trossulus, and the rockweed Fucus distichus subsp. evanescens. There was greatest power to detect trends in Mytilus and lesser power for barnacles and Fucus. Because of its greater power, the extensive, coarse-grained sampling scheme was adopted in subsequent years over the intensive, fine-grained scheme. The sampling attributes that had the largest effects on power included sampling of “vertical” line transects (vs. horizontal line transects or quadrats) and increasing the number of sites. We also evaluated the power of several management-set parameters. Given equal sampling effort, sampling more sites fewer times had greater power. The information gained through intertidal monitoring is likely to be useful in assessing changes due to climate, including ocean acidification; invasive species; trampling effects; and oil spills.

  5. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun

    2016-05-01

    Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0

  6. Long-Term Trends in Glaucoma-Related Blindness in Olmsted County, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malihi, Mehrdad; Moura Filho, Edney R.; Hodge, David O.; Sit, Arthur J.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine the longitudinal trends in the probability of blindness due to open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in Olmsted County, Minnesota from 1965 to 2009. Design Retrospective, population-based cohort study. Participants All residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota (40 years of age and over) who were diagnosed with OAG between January 1, 1965 to December 31, 2000. Methods All available medical records of every incident case of OAG were reviewed until December 31, 2009 to identify progression to blindness, defined as visual acuity of 20/200 or worse, and/or visual field constriction to 20° or less. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to estimate the cumulative probability of glaucoma-related blindness. Population incidence of blindness within 10 years of diagnosis was calculated using United States Census data. Rates for subjects diagnosed in the period 1965–1980 were compared with rates for subjects diagnosed in the period 1981–2000 using logrank tests and Poisson regression models. Main Outcome Measures Cumulative probability of OAG-related blindness, and population incidence of blindness within 10 years of diagnosis. Results Probability of glaucoma-related blindness in at least one eye at 20 years decreased from 25.8 % (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 18.5–32.5) for subjects diagnosed in 1965–1980, to 13.5% (95% CI: 8.8–17.9) for subjects diagnosed in 1981–2000 (P=0.01). The population incidence of blindness within 10 years of the diagnosis decreased from 8.7 per 100,000 (95% CI: 5.9–11.5) for subjects diagnosed in 1965–1980, to 5.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 3.9–7.2) for subjects diagnosed in 1981–2000 (P=0.02). Higher age at diagnosis was associated with increased risk of progression to blindness (Pblindness due to OAG in at least one eye have decreased over a 45 year period from 1965 to 2009. However, a significant proportion of patients still progress to blindness despite recent diagnostic and therapeutic advancements. PMID:24823760

  7. Changing trends in intestinal parasitic infections among long-term-residents and settled immigrants in Qatar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doiphode Sanjay H

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The rapid socio-economic development in Qatar in the last two decades has encouraged a mass influx of immigrant workers, the majority of whom originate from countries with low socio-economic levels, inadequate medical care and many are known to carry patent intestinal helminth and protozoan infections on arrival in Qatar. Some eventually acquire residency status but little is known about whether they continue to harbour infections. Methods We examined 9208 hospital records of stool samples that had been analysed for the presence of intestinal helminth and protozoan ova/cysts, over the period 2005-2008, of subjects from 28 nationalities, but resident in Qatar and therefore not recent arrivals in the country. Results Overall 10.2% of subjects were infected with at least one species, 2.6% with helminths and 8.0% with protozoan species. Although hookworms, Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and Hymenolepis nana were observed, the majority of helminth infections (69% were caused by hookworms, and these were largely aggregated among 20.0-39.9 year-old male subjects from Nepal. The remaining cases of helminth infection were mostly among Asian immigrants. Protozoan infections were more uniformly spread across immigrants from different regions when prevalence was calculated on combined data, but this disguised three quite contrasting underlying patterns for 3 taxa of intestinal protozoa. Blastocystis hominis, Giardia duodenalis and non-pathogenic amoebae were all acquired in childhood, but whereas prevalence of B. hominis rose to a plateau and then even further among the elderly, prevalence of G. duodenalis fell markedly in children aged 10 and older, and stayed low (Entamoeba coli, E. hartmanni, Endolimax nana and Iodamoeba buetschlii peaked in the 30.0-39.9 age group and only then dropped to very low values among the oldest subjects examined. A worrying trend in respect of both helminth and protozoan parasites was the

  8. Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

    2014-01-01

    We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

  9. Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

    2017-09-01

    Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  10. Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

    2018-03-01

    A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

  11. Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

    2018-03-01

    A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

  12. Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

  13. Secular trends in gestational age and birthweight in twins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gielen, M.; van Beijsterveldt, C.E.M.; Derom, C.A.; Vlietinck, R; Nijhuis, J.G.; Zeegers, M.P.A.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2010-01-01

    Background: In recent decades, the overall rate of preterm births has increased. The aim of the present study was to examine whether this trend is also seen for multiple gestations. More specifically, we examined if there has been a decrease in gestational age for live born monozygotic (MZ) and

  14. Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

    2017-01-01

    European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

  15. Summary of preliminary step-trend analysis from the Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-termMonitoring Program—2004-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, Kristin; Shanahan, Erin; Daley, Rob; Irvine, Kathryn M.

    2014-01-01

    In mixed and dominant stands, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) occurs in over two million acres within the six national forests and two national parks that comprise the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Currently, whitebark pine, an ecologically important species, is impacted by multiple ecological disturbances; white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), wildfire, and climate change all pose significant threats to the persistence of whitebark pine populations. Substantial declines in whitebark pine populations have been documented throughout its range.Under the auspices of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC), several agencies began a collaborative, long-term monitoring program to track and document the status of whitebark pine across the GYE. This alliance resulted in the formation of the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group (GYWPMWG), which consists of representatives from the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Montana State University (MSU). This groundbased monitoring program was initiated in 2004 and follows a peer-reviewed protocol (GYWPMWG 2011). The program is led by the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) of the National Park Service in coordination with multiple agencies. More information about this monitoring effort is available at: http://science. nature.nps.gov/im/units/gryn/monitor/whitebark_pine.cfm. The purpose of this report is to provide a draft summary of the first step-trend analysis for the interagency, long-term monitoring of whitebark pine health to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) as part of a synthesis of the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Due to the various stages of the analyses and reporting, this is the most efficient way to provide these results to the IGBST.

  16. Secular trends of growth and pubertal maturation of school children in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaruratanasirikul, Somchit; Sriplung, Hutcha

    2015-01-01

    In Thailand, studies of growth date back to 1975, but there have been no studies examining any trends in increasing/decreasing growth. To determine if there have been any secular trends of increasing/decreasing growth and/or ages at puberty in Thai children. In 2012, a cross-sectional study of growth was conducted in 3460 children. The median heights and weights and the ages of pubertal maturation were compared with previous studies. Correlations between the secular trends and the health statistics indicators were calculated. From 1975-2012, the median final height of boys and girls had increased by 1.32 and 0.86 cm/decade and weight by 2.49 and 1.76 kg/decade, respectively. In girls, the age at thelarche and menarche had declined by 0.39 and 0.12 years/decade, respectively. In boys, the age at testicular enlargement Tanner II had declined by 0.15 years/decade. Increased physical growth was positively correlated to life expectancy, per capita income and prevalence of overweight/obesity was negatively correlated to prevalence of malnutrition and under-five mortality rate. The positive secular trend towards an increase in growth and a decline in the age at onset of puberty of Thai children is correlated with improvements in overall living conditions in Thailand.

  17. How consistent are global long-term satellite LAI products in terms of interannual variability and trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.; Fang, H.

    2016-12-01

    Proper usage of global satellite LAI products requires comprehensive evaluation. To address this issue, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup proposed a four-stage validation hierarchy. During the past decade, great efforts have been made following this validation framework, mainly focused on absolute magnitude, seasonal trajectory, and spatial pattern of those global satellite LAI products. However, interannual variability and trends of global satellite LAI products have been investigated marginally. Targeting on this gap, we made an intercomparison between seven global satellite LAI datasets, including four short-term ones: MODIS C5, MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and three long-term products ones: LAI3g, GLASS, and GLOBMAP. We calculated global annual LAI time series for each dataset, among which we found substantial differences. During the overlapped period (2003 - 2011), MODIS C5, GLASS and GLOBMAP have positive correlation (r > 0.6) between each other, while MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and LAI3g are highly consistent (r > 0.7) in interannual variations. However, the previous three datasets show negative trends, all of which use MODIS C5 reflectance data, whereas the latter four show positive trends, using MODIS C6, SPOT/VGT, ENVISAT/MERIS, and NOAA/AVHRR, respectively. During the pre-MODIS era (1982 - 1999), the three AVHRR-based datasets (LAI3g, GLASS and GLOBMAP) agree well (r > 0.7), yet all of them show oscillation related with NOAA platform changes. In addition, both GLASS and GLOBMAP show clear cut-points around 2000 when they move from AVHRR to MODIS. Such inconsistency is also visible for GEOV1, which uses SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 before and after 2002. We further investigate the map-to-map deviations among these products. This study highlights that continuous sensor calibration and cross calibration are essential to obtain reliable global LAI time series.

  18. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt. Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, W. Y.; Lin, W. L.; Xu, X. B.; Tang, J.; Huang, J. Q.; Wu, H.; Zhang, X. C.

    2015-11-01

    Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The level of tropospheric ozone, particularly in the surface layer, is impacted by emissions of precursors and is subjected to meteorological conditions. Due its importance, the long-term variation trend of baseline ozone is highly needed for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies about the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China, a country with rapid economic growth for recent decades, and many other developing countries. To uncover the long-term characteristics and trends of baseline surface ozone, concentration in western China, measurements at a global baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt. Waliguan) for the period of 1994 to 2013 were analysed in this study, using a modified Mann-Kendall test and the Hilbert-Huang Transform analysis for the trend and periodicity analysis, respectively. Results reveal higher surface ozone during the night and lower during the day at Waliguan, due to mountain-valley breezes. A seasonal maximum in summer was found, which was probably caused by enhanced stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange events and/or by tropospheric photochemistry. Analysis suggests that there is a season-diurnal cycle in the three-dimensional winds on top of Mt. Waliguan. Season-dependent daytime and nighttime ranges of 6 h were determined based on the season-diurnal cycle in the three-dimensional winds and were used to sort subsets of ozone data for trend analysis. Significant increasing trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (1.5-2.7 ppbv 10 a-1) and nighttime (1.3-2.9 ppbv 10 a-1). Autumn and spring revealed the largest increase rates, while summer and winter showed relatively weaker increases. The HHT spectral analysis confirmed the increasing

  19. Long-term trends in total inorganic nitrogen and sulfur deposition in the US from 1990 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Excess deposition (including both wet and dry deposition of nitrogen and sulfur is detrimental to ecosystems. Recent studies have investigated the spatial patterns and temporal trends of nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition, but few studies have focused on dry deposition due to the scarcity of dry deposition measurements. Here, we use long-term model simulations from the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ model covering the period from 1990 to 2010 to study changes in spatial distribution as well as temporal trends in total (TDEP, wet (WDEP, and dry deposition (DDEP of total inorganic nitrogen (TIN and sulfur (TS in the United States (US. We first evaluate the model's performance in simulating WDEP over the US by comparing the model results with observational data from the US National Atmospheric Deposition Program. The coupled model generally underestimates the WDEP of both TIN (including both the oxidized nitrogen deposition, TNO3, and the reduced nitrogen deposition, NHx and TS, with better performance in the eastern US than the western US. The underestimation of the wet deposition by the model is mainly caused by the coarse model grid resolution, missing lightning NOx emissions, and the poor temporal and spatial representation of NH3 emissions. TDEP of both TIN and TS shows significant decreases over the US, especially in the east, due to the large emission reductions that occurred in that region. The decreasing trends of TIN TDEP are caused by decreases in TNO3, and the increasing trends of TIN deposition over the Great Plains and Tropical Wet Forests (Southern Florida Coastal Plain regions are caused by increases in NH3 emissions, although it should be noted that these increasing trends are not significant. TIN WDEP shows decreasing trends throughout the US, except for the Marine West Coast Forest region. TIN DDEP shows significant decreasing trends in the Eastern Temperate Forests

  20. Secular trends in opioid prescribing in the USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pezalla EJ

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Edmund J Pezalla,1 David Rosen,2 Jennifer G Erensen,2 J David Haddox,2,3 Tracy J Mayne2 1Bioconsult, LLC, Wethersfield, 2Purdue Pharma L.P., Stamford, CT, 3Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA, USA Abstract: Opioid abuse and misuse in the USA is a public health crisis. The use of prescription opioid analgesics increased substantially from 2002 through 2010, then plateaued and began to decrease in 2011. This study examined prescriptions of branded and generic immediate- and extended-release opioid analgesics from 1992 to 2016. This was juxtaposed against state and federal policies designed to decrease overutilization and abuse, as well as the launch of new opioid products, including opioids with abuse-deterrent properties (OADPs. The data indicate that these health policies, including the utilization and reimbursement of OADPs, have coincided with decreased opioid utilization. The hypothesis that OADPs will paradoxically increase opioid prescribing is not supported. Keywords: OADP, prescription, utilization trends, legislation, opioids

  1. Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrographic and nutrient parameters in a southeast US coastal river.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Asher A; Kimball, Matthew E

    2013-12-01

    The Nassau River estuary is located in northeast Florida adjacent to the eutrophic St. Johns River. Historically, development has been sparse in the Nassau River's catchment; thus, the system may provide a relatively undisturbed aquatic environment. To monitor the condition of the Nassau River estuary and to discern spatial and temporal trends in water quality, nutrients and hydrographic variables were assessed throughout the estuary from 1997 to 2011. Hydrographic (temperature, salinity, total suspended solids, and turbidity) and nutrient parameters (total phosphorus, ortho-PO₄(3-), total nitrogen, NH₄(+), total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and NO₃(-)) were monitored bimonthly at 12 sites in the mesohaline and polyhaline zones of the river. Nonparametric Kendall's Tau was implemented to analyze long-term water quality patterns. Salinity was found to increase with time, particularly in the mesohaline sampling sites. Dissolved oxygen decreased over time in the estuary and hypoxic conditions became increasingly frequent in the final years of the study. Nutrients increased in the estuary, ranging from 149 to 401%. Rainfall data collected in adjacent conservation areas did not correlate well with nutrients as compared with stream discharge data collected in the basin headwaters, outside of the conservation lands, attributed here to expanding urbanization. During the study period, the Nassau basin underwent rapid human population growth and land development resulting in commensurate impacts to water quality. Nutrient and physical data collected during this study indicate that the Nassau River estuary is becoming more eutrophic with time.

  2. Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. S. Tang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998–2014 and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999–2014 across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m−3 and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m−3, while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m−3 annual mean in 2005. Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha−1 yr−1 and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n =  59 show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann–Kendall (MK, −6.3 %; linear regression (LR, −3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: −22 %; LR: −21 %, annually averaged NH3 is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (−39 %. By contrast, in cattle

  3. Statistical modelling and RCS detrending methods provide similar estimates of long-term trend in radial growth of common beech in north-eastern France

    OpenAIRE

    Bontemps , Jean-Daniel; Esper , Jan

    2011-01-01

    International audience; Dendrochronological methods have greatly contributed to the documentation of past long-term trends in forest growth. These methods primarily focus on the high-frequency signals of tree ring chronologies. They require the removal of the ageing trend in tree growth, known as 'standardisation' or 'detrending', as a prerequisite to the estimation of such trends. Because the approach is sequential, it may however absorb part of the low-frequency historical signal. In this s...

  4. Seasonal dynamics and long-term trend of hypoxia in the coastal zone of Emilia Romagna (NW Adriatic Sea, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvisi, Francesca; Cozzi, Stefano

    2016-01-15

    Long-term series of meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic data were compared with hypoxia occurrence, in order to define characteristics and trends of this phenomenon in the Emilia Romagna Coastal Zone (ERCZ) in 1977-2008. During this period, hypoxia was recorded at all sampling stations, up to 20 km offshore. In winter, spring and late autumn, hypoxia appearance was matched to significant positive anomalies of air and surface seawater temperatures (up to +3.6 °C), whereas this effect was less pronounced in August-October. Hypoxia generally occurred with scarce precipitation (0-2 dm(3)m(2)d(-1)) and low wind velocity (0-2 ms(-1)), suggesting the importance of stable meteo-marine conditions for the onset of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, wind direction emerged as an indicator of hydrodynamic seasonal changes in the area and is thus a hypoxia regulator. In winter, spring and autumn, hypoxia was favored by large increases of biomass induced by river freshets. In contrast, summer hypoxia occurred during periods of low runoff, suggesting that pronounced stratification and weak circulation of coastal waters were more important in this season. Since the 1990s, a shift from widespread summer hypoxia to local hypoxia irregularly distributed across the year has occurred. This process was concomitant to long-term increases of air temperature (+0.14 °C yr(-1)), wind speed (+0.03 ms(-1) yr(-1)) and salinity (+0.09 yr(-1)), and decreases of Po River flow (-0.54 km(3) yr(-1)), oxygen saturation (-0.2% yr(-1)) and PO4(3-) (-0.004 μmol P L(-1) yr(-1)) and NH4(+) (-0.04 μmol N L(-1) yr(-1)) concentrations in surface coastal waters. Despite that several of these changes suggest an ERCZ trophic level positive reduction, similar to that reported for the N Adriatic, the concomitant climate warming might further exacerbate hypoxia in particularly shallow shelf locations. Therefore, in order to avoid hypoxia development a further mitigation of anthropogenic pressure is still

  5. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  6. Secular trends on traditional ecological knowledge: An analysis of different domains of knowledge among Tsimane' men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-García, Victoria; Luz, Ana C; Gueze, Maximilien; Paneque-Gálvez, Jaime; Macía, Manuel J; Orta-Martínez, Martí; Pino, Joan

    2013-10-01

    Empirical research provides contradictory evidence of the loss of traditional ecological knowledge across societies. Researchers have argued that culture, methodological differences, and site-specific conditions are responsible for such contradictory evidences. We advance and test a third explanation: the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge systems. Specifically, we test whether different domains of traditional ecological knowledge experience different secular changes and analyze trends in the context of other changes in livelihoods. We use data collected among 651 Tsimane' men (Bolivian Amazon). Our findings indicate that different domains of knowledge follow different secular trends. Among the domains of knowledge analyzed, medicinal and wild edible knowledge appear as the most vulnerable; canoe building and firewood knowledge seem to remain constant across generations; whereas house building knowledge seems to experience a slight secular increase. Our analysis reflects on the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge, highlighting how changes in this knowledge system respond to the particular needs of a society in a given point of time.

  7. Long-Term Trends in Marriage Timing and the Impact of Migration, the Netherlands (1650-1899

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Störmer

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The features of historical marriage patterns have been linked to debates in social and economic history about economic growth and female agency. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the demographics of marriage prior to the nineteenth century. Here, we study trends in sex-specific ages at first marriage, regional variation and the impact of migration on marital timing in the Netherlands in the period 1650-1900. We make use of two new large historical datasets, namely an aggregation of Dutch genealogies and the transcribed marriage banns of Amsterdam. This allows us to understand the features and developments of marriage ages from a long-term perspective in what is known as one of the core-areas of the so-called European Marriage Pattern. Our results show high marriage ages for both sexes from the beginning of our study period, increasing until the mid-19th century. A closer look at regional variation reveals clear differences between the provinces and between urban and rural settings with those in the western part of the country and in urban centers marrying earlier. Migrating individuals married on average later than non-migrating individuals both compared to men and women in the receiving community, as to the ‘stayers’ in the location of origin. As later marriage implies a reduction of the window of fertility, especially for women, our results suggest that migration and increasing regional mobility might have been an important driver of the demographic shift toward higher marriage ages and lower fertility in Europe between the 17th and 19th centuries.

  8. Drivers, trends, and potential impacts of long-term coastal reclamation in China from 1985 to 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Bo; Wu, Wenting; Yang, Zhaoqing; Zhou, Yunxuan

    2016-03-01

    Driven by rapid economic development, population growth, and urbanization, China has experienced severe coastal land reclamation over the last decades, which resulted in significant loss of coastal wetland and wildlife habitat, and degradation of marine ecosystems. This study used advanced remote-sensing techniques to analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of coastal reclamation in China and investigated the relationships between coastal land reclamation and coastal economy, population growth, and urbanization. Analysis of long-term Landsat images time series from 1985 to 2010 in 5-year intervals, in combination with remotely sensed image techniques, indicated a sharp increasing trend of land reclamation after 2005, which accounted for over 35% of China’s total reclamation during the 25-year period since 1985. High-intensity coastal reclamation in China was mainly driven by the booming economy associated with urbanization and industrial development in the coastal region. Analysis indicated that coastal land reclamation is closely correlated with the GDP per capita in China. Study results of Landsat images showed that 754,697 ha of coastal wetlands have been reclaimed across all coastal provinces and metropolises from 1985 to 2010, at an annual rate of 5.9%. Coastal areas within the three major economic zones (Bohai Bay, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta) were found to generally have higher reclamation rates. For example, the built-up area in Shanghai, which is located in the Yangtze River Delta, increased more than five times from 1985 to 2010. Approximately 35% of the reclamation occurred in Bohai Bay, in which the CRI between 2005 and 2010 was three times higher than the average CRI over the 25-year period.

  9. Organic tritium in freshwater ecosystems: long-term trends in the environment of French nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gontier, G.; Siclet, F.

    2011-01-01

    From 1977 to 2009, more than 600 measurements of organic tritium were performed on fish, aquatic plants and sediments upstream and downstream of the 15 French NPP located along rivers. Examination of the results shows that organic tritium activities have exponentially decreased over the last thirty years, in all components of aquatic ecosystems. Upstream of all NPP, OBT levels in sediments are higher than in plants and fish, themselves larger than HTO in surface water. The magnitude of these differences and the long-term trends depend on the river basin and can be explained by the varying nature of tritium sources. In river catchment, where atmospheric test fallout is the main source of tritium, the observed levels result from the exposure of aquatic organisms to two distinct tritium pools of different ages: atmospheric tritiated water (representing present fallout), and organic tritium from soils (formed over several decades) which supplies particulate matter to surface waters. In the Rhone and Rhine river basins, an additional source of organic tritium of very low bio-availability, probably originating from the luminescent paint industry, is responsible for the spiking of sediment organic matter up to 100 to 100 000 Bq.L -1 combustion water. The comparison of upstream and downstream NPP tritium levels shows that the influence of tritium discharges is detectable only in rivers, with low background OBT activities, i.e in basins other than the Rhone and Rhine. The observed increase in plant and fish OBT is lower than the added HTO activity in water due to discharge, which supports the absence of bioaccumulation for tritium originating from HTO and the absence of highly bio-available tritiated organic molecules in NPP discharges. (authors)

  10. Secular Trends in Meal and Snack Patterns among Adolescents from 1999 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Nicole; Story, Mary; Eisenberg, Marla E; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

    2016-02-01

    Linkages between snack patterns, diet, and obesity in adolescents likely depend on the consumption of main meals, how often snacks are prepared away from home, and whether energy-dense, nutrient-poor snack foods and sugary drinks are frequently consumed. Nutrition-based interventions need to be informed by an understanding of how secular changes in the contribution of snacks to dietary intake may be related to changes in meal frequency as well as how these trends differ by sociodemographic characteristics. To examine secular trends from 1999 to 2010 in meal and snack patterns among adolescents. A repeated cross-sectional design was used. Participants from Minneapolis/St Paul, MN, secondary schools completed classroom-administered surveys and food frequency questionnaires in 1999 (n=2,598) and 2010 (n=2,540). Weekly meal frequencies; number of snacks consumed on school and vacation/weekend days; frequent consumption of snacks prepared away from home (≥3 times/week); and daily servings of energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drinks that are commonly consumed at snack occasions. Trends from 1999 to 2010 were examined using inverse probability weighting to control for differences in sociodemographic characteristics in the two samples. Mean frequencies of breakfast and lunch increased modestly in the overall population (both P values snacks consumed on schools days (Psnacks prepared away from home, there was a secular decrease in energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drink consumption (Psnack trends among adolescents suggests the need for targeted efforts to ensure public health messages reach low-income and ethnic/racial minority population subgroups most vulnerable to poor nutrition and the development of obesity. Copyright © 2016 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Long-term trends in submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, USA, related to water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Robert J.; Williams, Michael R.; Marion, Scott R.; Wilcox, David J.; Carruthers, Tim J.B.; Moore, Kenneth A.; Kemp, W.M.; Dennison, William C.; Rybicki, Nancy B.; Peter Bergstrom,; Batiuk, Richard A.

    2010-01-01

    Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984-2006). Historically, SAV abundance has changed dramatically in Chesapeake Bay, and since 1984, when SAV abundance was at historic low levels, SAV has exhibited complex changes including long-term (decadal) increases and decreases, as well as some large, single-year changes. Chesapeake Bay SAV was grouped into three broad-scale community-types based on salinity regime, each with their own distinct group of species, and detailed analyses were conducted on these three community-types as well as on seven distinct case-study areas spanning the three salinity regimes. Different trends in SAVabundance were evident in the different salinity regimes. SAV abundance has (a) continually increased in the low-salinity region; (b) increased initially in the medium-salinity region, followed by fluctuating abundances; and (c) increased initially in the high-salinity region, followed by a subsequent decline. In all areas, consistent negative correlations between measures of SAV abundance and nitrogen loads or concentrations suggest that meadows are responsive to changes in inputs of nitrogen. For smaller case-study areas, different trends in SAV abundance were also noted including correlations to water clarity in high-salinity case-study areas, but nitrogen was highly correlated in all areas. Current maximum SAV coverage for almost all areas remain below restoration targets, indicating that SAV abundance and associated ecosystem services are currently limited by continued poor water quality, and specifically high

  12. Long-term trends and survival analysis of esophageal and gastric cancer in Yangzhong, 1991-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaolai Hua

    Full Text Available To describe the long-term trends of the incidence, mortality and survival of upper digestive tract cancers in a high-risk area of China.We extracted esophageal and gastric cancer cases diagnosed from 1991 to 2013 through the Yangzhong Cancer Registry and calculated the crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. Cancer trends were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program and were reported using the annual percentage change (APC. The cancer-specific survival rates were evaluated and compared between groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test.The age-standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer declined from 107.06 per 100,000 person-years (male: 118.05 per 100,000 person-years; female: 97.42 per 100,000 person-years in 1991 to 37.04 per 100,000 person-years (male: 46.43 per 100,000 person-years; female: 27.26 per 100,000 person-years in 2013, with an APC of -2.5% (95% confidence interval (CI: -3.4%, -1.5% for males and -4.9% (95% CI:-5.8%, -3.9% for females. The age-standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer was 165.11 per 100,000 person-years (male: 225.39 per 100,000 person-years; female: 113.34 per 100,000 person-years in 1991 and 53.46 per 100,000 person-years (male: 76.51 per 100,000 person-years; female: 32.43 per 100,000 person-years in 2013, with the APC of -3.6% (95% CI: -4.5%, -2.7% for males and -4.8% (95% CI: -5.7%, -3.9% for females. The median survival time was 3.0 years for patients with esophageal or gastric cancer. Cancer cases detected after 2004 had a better prognosis.The age-standardized incidence rates of both esophageal and gastric cancer continuously decreased since 1991 through 2013, whereas the mortality rate remained stable before 2004 and significantly declined following the massive endoscopic screening program initiated in 2004. The survival probability of patients with esophageal and gastric cancer has improved obviously in recent decades.

  13. Comment on “Long-term trends in thermospheric neutral temperatures and density above Millstone Hill” by W. L. Oliver et al

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 120, č. 3 (2015), s. 2347-2349 ISSN 2169-9380 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792; GA ČR GA15-03909S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ionosphere * thermosphere * long-term trends * drivers of trends Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.318, year: 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JA020864/abstract

  14. Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Andrew C.; Glynn, Peter W.; Riegl, Bernhard

    2008-12-01

    Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on

  15. Tropospheric observations of CFC-114 and CFC-114a with a focus on long-term trends and emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Laube

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs are ozone-depleting substances as well as strong greenhouse gases, and the control of their production and use under the Montreal Protocol has had demonstrable benefits to both mitigation of increasing surface UV radiation and climate forcing. A global ban on consumption came into force in 2010, but there is evidence of continuing emissions of certain CFCs from a range of sources. One compound has received little attention in the literature, namely CFC-114 (C2Cl2F4. Of particular interest here is the differentiation between CFC-114 (CClF2CClF2 and its asymmetric isomeric form CFC-114a (CF3CCl2F as atmospheric long-term measurements in the peer-reviewed literature to date have been assumed to represent the sum of both isomers with a time-invariant isomeric speciation. Here we report the first long-term measurements of the two isomeric forms separately, and find that they have different origins and trends in the atmosphere. Air samples collected at Cape Grim (41° S, Australia, during atmospheric background conditions since 1978, combined with samples collected from deep polar snow (firn enable us to obtain a near-complete record of both gases since their initial production and release in the 1940s. Both isomers were present in the unpolluted atmosphere in comparably small amounts before 1960. The mixing ratio of CFC-114 doubled from 7.9 to 14.8 parts per trillion (ppt between the start of the Cape Grim record in 1978 and the end of our record in 2014, while over the same time CFC-114a trebled from 0.35 to 1.03 ppt. Mixing ratios of both isomers are slowly decreasing by the end of this period. This is consistent with measurements of recent aircraft-based samples showing no significant interhemispheric mixing ratio gradient. We also find that the fraction of CFC-114a mixing ratio relative to that of CFC-114 increased from 4.2 to 6.9 % over the 37-year period. This contradicts the current tacit assumption used in

  16. Tropospheric observations of CFC-114 and CFC-114a with a focus on long-term trends and emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laube, Johannes C.; Hanif, Norfazrin Mohd; Martinerie, Patricia; Gallacher, Eileen; Fraser, Paul J.; Langenfelds, Ray; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Schwander, Jakob; Witrant, Emmanuel; Wang, Jia-Lin; Ou-Yang, Chang-Feng; Gooch, Lauren J.; Reeves, Claire E.; Sturges, William T.; Oram, David E.

    2016-12-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are ozone-depleting substances as well as strong greenhouse gases, and the control of their production and use under the Montreal Protocol has had demonstrable benefits to both mitigation of increasing surface UV radiation and climate forcing. A global ban on consumption came into force in 2010, but there is evidence of continuing emissions of certain CFCs from a range of sources. One compound has received little attention in the literature, namely CFC-114 (C2Cl2F4). Of particular interest here is the differentiation between CFC-114 (CClF2CClF2) and its asymmetric isomeric form CFC-114a (CF3CCl2F) as atmospheric long-term measurements in the peer-reviewed literature to date have been assumed to represent the sum of both isomers with a time-invariant isomeric speciation. Here we report the first long-term measurements of the two isomeric forms separately, and find that they have different origins and trends in the atmosphere. Air samples collected at Cape Grim (41° S), Australia, during atmospheric background conditions since 1978, combined with samples collected from deep polar snow (firn) enable us to obtain a near-complete record of both gases since their initial production and release in the 1940s. Both isomers were present in the unpolluted atmosphere in comparably small amounts before 1960. The mixing ratio of CFC-114 doubled from 7.9 to 14.8 parts per trillion (ppt) between the start of the Cape Grim record in 1978 and the end of our record in 2014, while over the same time CFC-114a trebled from 0.35 to 1.03 ppt. Mixing ratios of both isomers are slowly decreasing by the end of this period. This is consistent with measurements of recent aircraft-based samples showing no significant interhemispheric mixing ratio gradient. We also find that the fraction of CFC-114a mixing ratio relative to that of CFC-114 increased from 4.2 to 6.9 % over the 37-year period. This contradicts the current tacit assumption used in international climate

  17. Secular Trends in the Incidence of Dementia in a Multi-Ethnic Community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, James M; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Andrews, Howard; Tang, Ming-Xin; Mayeux, Richard

    2017-10-03

    Determination of secular trends in cognitive aging is important for prioritization of resources, services, and research in aging populations. Prior studies have identified declining dementia incidence associated with changes in cardiovascular risk factors and increased educational attainment. However, few studies have examined these factors in multi-ethnic cohorts. To identify secular trends in the incidence rate of dementia in an elderly population. Participants in this study were drawn from the Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a multi-ethnic cohort study of northern Manhattan residents aged 65 years and older. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine differences in the incidence of dementia in cohorts recruited in 1992 and 1999, with age at dementia or age at last follow-up visit as the "time-to-event" variable. Overall, there was a 41% reduction in the hazard ratio for dementia among participants in the 1999 cohort compared with those in the 1992 cohort, adjusting for age, sex, race, and baseline memory complaints (HR = 0.59). The reduction in incidence was greatest among non-Hispanic Whites and African-Americans and lowest among Hispanic participants (HRs = 0.60, 0.52 and 0.64, respectively), and was associated with increases in level of educational attainment, especially among African-Americans. Reduction in incidence of dementia was also greater among persons 75 years or older than among younger participants (HR = 0.52 versus HR = 0.69). Our results support previous findings that secular trends in dementia incidence are changing, including in aging minority populations.

  18. Secular trends of body sizes in Korean children and adolescents: from 1965 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Soo Moon

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available An anthropometric survey is one of the most important approaches to use when evaluating the health status of children. Secular trends in body sizes, such as height, weight, head circumference, chest circumference, and body mass index showed significant changes over 40 years in Korea. A series of periodic surveys were conducted in 1967, 1975, 1985, 1997, and 2005 by the Korean Pediatric Society and Ministry of Health and Welfare. The quality of data from school health examinations and the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey has improved, so we can use them now as resources for anthropometric analysis. The final height differences between 1965 and 1997 were 4.5 cm both in boys (168.9 cm in 1965; 173.4 cm in 1997 and girls (155.9 cm in 1965; 160.4 cm in 1997. The differences between 1997 and 2005 were 0.9 cm in boys (174.3cm in 2005 and 0.8 cm in girls (161.2 cm in 2005. There was no difference in final height measurements between 2005 and 2010. An increase in body size at earlier teen ages was pronounced during these decades compared to the previous generation; however, little change has been identified more recently. Body size has been increasing, and obesity has become more prevalent. Systems that gather data should be updated in order to cope with these secular trends. In an upcoming era of secular trends that would be in a slow transition, several surveys that include body measurements should be prepared to meet future needs.

  19. Effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide in Japan, 1953-86.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motohashi, Y

    1991-04-01

    The effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide rates in Japan for the periods 1953-72 and 1973-86 were investigated using twelve socioeconomic indicators. Multiple regression analysis showed that the socioeconomic indicators affecting suicide rates were not identical in the two periods. The rates in both sexes in 1953-72 were closely related to unemployment rate and the labour force but between 1973 and 1986, divorce rate and the proportion in tertiary industry were most influential. The changes reflect the socioeconomic changes in industrial structure in Japan in transition from an industrial to a service economy.

  20. Secular trends in salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults, 1997-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lianlong; Li, Suyun; Zhao, Jinshan; Zhang, Junli; Wang, Liansen; Wang, Kebo

    2018-03-01

    Salt and soy sauce are the main ways of sodium intake in Chinese dietary. In this study, we used the data of the China Health and Nutrition Surveys to describe the secular trends of salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults from 1997 to 2011. Trends were tested by multiple linear regression models. During the past 14 years, the consumption of sodium, salt and soy sauce intake values decreased significantly across the six study periods (p sauce intake values decreased by 9.0 g/d among men and 7.3 g/d among women. Similar significant trends were observed in all age groups, activity levels and regions (p < .0001).

  1. The six year report: Acidification of surface water in Europe and North America. Dose/response relationships and long-term trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skjelkvaale, B L; Newell, A D; Raddum, G; Johannessen, M; Hovind, H; Tjomsland, T; Wathne, B M

    1994-12-31

    This report discusses The International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Acidification of Rivers and Lakes, which is designed to (1) establish degree and extent of acidification of surface waters, (2) evaluate dose/response relationships and (3) define long-term trends and variations in aquatic chemistry and biota attributable to atmospheric pollution. Data from 200 sites in 14 countries of Europe and North America are available. Dose/response relationships show that the fauna is adapted to different water qualities in different regions, and that critical limits for the fauna must be calculated according to data for the specific region. Long-term trends of water chemistry show decreases in SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} and Ca{sup 2+} at many sites. Nitrate shows no consistent trends. 66 refs., 26 figs., 16 tabs.

  2. Use of Long-Term Opportunistic Surveys to Estimate Trends in Abundance of Hibernating Townsend's Big-Eared Bats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodore J. Weller; Shawn C. Thomas; James A. Baldwin

    2014-01-01

    The advent of broad-scale threats to bats such as white-nose syndrome and climate change highlights the need for reliable baseline assessment of their populations. However, few long-term, rigorously designed assessments of bat populations exist, particularly in western North America. Consequently, results of informal monitoring efforts are often the only data available...

  3. Influence of secular trends and sample size on reference equations for lung function tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quanjer, P H; Stocks, J; Cole, T J; Hall, G L; Stanojevic, S

    2011-03-01

    The aim of our study was to determine the contribution of secular trends and sample size to lung function reference equations, and establish the number of local subjects required to validate published reference values. 30 spirometry datasets collected between 1978 and 2009 provided data on healthy, white subjects: 19,291 males and 23,741 females aged 2.5-95 yrs. The best fit for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV(1)/FVC as functions of age, height and sex were derived from the entire dataset using GAMLSS. Mean z-scores were calculated for individual datasets to determine inter-centre differences. This was repeated by subdividing one large dataset (3,683 males and 4,759 females) into 36 smaller subsets (comprising 18-227 individuals) to preclude differences due to population/technique. No secular trends were observed and differences between datasets comprising >1,000 subjects were small (maximum difference in FEV(1) and FVC from overall mean: 0.30- -0.22 z-scores). Subdividing one large dataset into smaller subsets reproduced the above sample size-related differences and revealed that at least 150 males and 150 females would be necessary to validate reference values to avoid spurious differences due to sampling error. Use of local controls to validate reference equations will rarely be practical due to the numbers required. Reference equations derived from large or collated datasets are recommended.

  4. Spatial patterns and secular trends in human leishmaniasis incidence in Morocco between 2003 and 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, Mina

    2016-05-11

    Few studies on spatial patterns or secular trends in human leishmanias have been conducted in Morocco. This study aimed to examine spatial patterns and trends associated with the human leishmaniasis incidence rate (HLIR) at the province/prefecture level between 2003 and 2013 in Morocco. Only the available published country data on the HLIR between 2003 and 2013, from the open access files of the Ministry of Health, were used. Secular trends were examined using Kendall's rank correlation. An exploratory spatial data analysis was also conducted to examine the spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association [LISA]), and spatial diffusion at the province/prefecture level. The influence of various covariates (poverty rate, vulnerability rate, population density, and urbanization) on the HLIR was tested via spatial regression (ordinary least squares regression). At the country level, no secular variation was observed. Poisson annual incidence rate estimates were 13 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 12.9-13.1) for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and 0.4 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 0.4-0.5) for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The available data on HLIR were based on combined CL and VL cases, however, as the CL cases totally outnumbered the VL ones, HLIR may be considered as CL incidence rate. At the provincial level, a secular increase in the incidence rate was observed in Al Hoceima (P = 0.008), Taounate (P = 0.04), Larache (P = 0.002), Tétouan (P = 0.0003), Khenifra (P = 0.008), Meknes (P = 0.03), and El Kelaa (P = 0.0007), whereas a secular decrease was observed only in the Chichaoua province (P = 0.006). Even though increased or decreased rate was evident in these provinces, none of them showed clustering of leishmaniasis incidence. Significant spatial clusters of high leishmaniasis incidence were located in the northeastern part of Morocco, while spatial clusters of low leishmaniasis

  5. Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were......Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

  6. Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

    2018-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004–2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution. PMID:29466354

  7. Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Weili; He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

    2018-01-01

    Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004-2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution.

  8. Reversal of Long-Term Trends in Ethane Identified from the Global Atmosphere Watch Reactive Gases Measurement Network

    OpenAIRE

    Helmig, Detlev; Buchmann, Brigitte; Carpenter, Lucy; Claude, Anja; Emmons, Louisa; Flocke, Frank; Franco, Bruno; Galbally, Ian; Hannigan, James; Hueber, Jacques; Koide, Hiroshi; Lewis, Alastair; Masarie, Ken; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Montzka, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Reactive gases play an important role in climate and air pollution issues. They control the self-cleansing capability of the troposphere, contribute to air pollution and acid deposition, regulate the lifetimes and provide tracers for deciphering sources and sinks for greenhouse gases. Within GAW, the focus is placed on long-term, high-quality observations of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). More than 100 stati...

  9. Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in coastal waters of northern South China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Lifei; Jia, Xiaoping; Jackson, Donald A

    2017-09-01

    Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10 -5 , both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.

  10. Recovery from chronic and snowmelt acidification: Long-term trends in stream and soil water chemistry at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colin B. Fuss; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric acid deposition of sulfate and nitrate has declined markedly in the northeastern United States due to emissions controls. We investigated long-term trends in soil water (1984–2011) and stream water (1982–2011) chemistry along an elevation gradient of a forested watershed to evaluate the progress of recovery of drainage waters from acidic deposition at the...

  11. Longitudinal and secular trends in adolescent whole-grain consumption, 1999-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess-Champoux, Teri L; Larson, Nicole I; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne R; Hannan, Peter J; Story, Mary T

    2010-01-01

    The replacement of refined grains in the diet with whole grains may help prevent chronic disease and excess weight gain, but intakes in adolescents are often lower than recommended. This study aimed to examine demographic disparities and 5-y longitudinal and secular trends (1999-2004) in whole-grain intake among 2 cohorts of Minnesota adolescents. Whole-grain intake was examined among 996 adolescent males and 1222 adolescent females who were Project EAT (Eating Among Teens) participants in 1999 and 2004. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine demographic differences in whole-grain intake. Mixed linear regression models were used to estimate 1) longitudinal trends among 2 cohorts of adolescents during developmental transitions and 2) age-matched secular trends between the cohorts at middle adolescence. In 1999, 11% of adolescent males and 13% of adolescent females reported that they consumed more than one daily serving of whole grains. Whole-grain intake was lowest among youth of the Native American and white races and among youth of high socioeconomic status. During the transition from middle to late adolescence, whole-grain intake increased by a mean of 0.14 daily servings among adolescent males and 0.09 daily servings among adolescent females. No significant changes in whole-grain intake were shown among either sex during the transition from early to middle adolescence. Yeast breads, popcorn, and ready-to-eat breakfast cereals were major sources of whole grains in 1999 and 2004. Findings suggest the need to advance efforts that target improvements in the amount of whole-grain foods selected by adolescents.

  12. Secular Trends in Habitual Physical Activities of Mozambican Children and Adolescents from Maputo City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Karina dos Santos

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Social and economic changes occurring in the last two decades in Mozambique may have induced lifestyle changes among youth. This study aimed to document secular changes in habitual physical activities of Mozambican youth between 1992, 1999 and 2012. A total of 3393 youth (eight–15 years, were measured in three different time periods (1992, 1999, 2012. Habitual physical activity (PA was estimated with a questionnaire, including items related to household chores, sport participation, traditional games and walking activities. Biological maturation was assessed. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA was used to compare mean differences in PA across the years. Significant decreases between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 were observed for boys in household chores, games and walking, and a significant decline between 1999 and 2012 was found in sport participation. Among girls, a significant and consistent decline (1992 > 1999 > 2012 was observed for household chores, a decline between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 for games and walking, and a significant increase between 1992 and 1999 in sport participation. In general, a negative secular trend was found in habitual PA among Mozambican youth. Interventions aimed at increasing PA represent important educational and public health opportunities.

  13. Long-term trend of haze pollution and impact of particulate matter in the Yangtze River Delta, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Zhen; Wang, Shuxiao; Jiang, Jingkun; Fu, Qingyan; Chen, Changhong; Xu, Bingye; Yu, Jianqiao; Fu, Xiao; Hao, Jiming

    2013-01-01

    Haze pollution caused by heavy particulate matter (PM) loading brings significant damage in eastern China. Long-term monitoring from 1980 to 2011 and 1-year field measurement in 2011–2012 are used for investigating visibility variation and the impact of PM pollution for the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). It was found that visual range in the YRD endured a sharp reduction from 13.2 km to 10.5 km during 1980–2000. Average mass extinction efficiency (MEE) for inhalable PM (PM 10 ) is 2.25 m 2 /g in 2001–2011, and extinction coefficient due to PM 10 is 207 Mm −1 , accounting for 36.2% of total extinction coefficient. MEE of PM 2.5 and PM 2.5–10 are 4.08 m 2 /g and 0.58 m 2 /g, respectively. Extinction coefficient due to PM 2.5 and PM 2.5–10 is 198 Mm −1 (39.6%) and 20 Mm −1 (4.0%) in 2011–2012. Maximum daily concentration of PM 10 and PM 2.5 is estimated to be 63 μg/m 3 (RH: 73%) and 38 μg/m 3 (RH: 70%) to keep visual range above 10 km. Fine particulate matter is the key factor for haze pollution improvement in the YRD area. -- Highlights: •Long-term visual range variation and its causes in the Yangtze River Delta are analyzed. •Quantitative contribution of particulate matter to haze pollution is estimated. •Mass extinction efficiency of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and PM 2.5–10 is estimated. -- The long-term variation of haze pollution in the YRD and its cause is investigated and the quantitative contribution of particulate matter to haze pollution is estimated

  14. Long-term Trends in Coral Reef Fish Yields and Exploitation Rates of Commercial Species from Coastal Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Kaunda-Arara, B.; Rose, G.A.; Muchiri, M.S.; Kaka, R.

    2003-01-01

    Analysis of long-term (1978–2001) marine fisheries data showed that Kenyan coralreefs produced an estimated 2–4 metric t/km2/year of demersal fish. A rapid overall decline in landings occurred during the 1990s. Yields (t/km2/year) showed bimodal peaks in 1982 (2.98) and 1991 (2.90). The average total landings dropped by 55% during the last decade following peak landings in 1982. Landings of the commercially important families (e.g., Siganidae, Lethrinidae, Lutjanidae and Serran...

  15. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  16. Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hirdman

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010, this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m−3 yr−1 (for the years 1989–2008 and −1.4±0.8 ng m−3 yr−1 (2002–2009 at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m−3 yr−1 (1985–2006 and −1.3±1.2 ng m−3 yr−1 (1990–2008 respectively, while there is no trend detectable at Barrow.

    To reveal the contribution of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2% and sulphate (0.3–5.3% at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the

  17. Secular trends in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican school-aged children and adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Karina dos Santos

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine secular changes in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican children and adolescents between 1992, 1999 and 2012. METHODS: 3374 subjects (1600 boys, 1774 girls, distributed across the three time points (523 subjects in 1992; 1565 in 1999; and 1286 in 2012, were studied. Height and weight were measured, BMI was computed, and WHO cut-points were used to define nutritional status. ANCOVA models were used to compare height, weight and BMI across study years; chi-square was used to determine differences in the nutritional status prevalence across the years. RESULTS: Significant differences for boys were found for height and weight (p2012, and those from 2012 had the highest BMI (1999<2012. In general, similar patterns were observed when mean values were analyzed by age. A positive trend was observed for overweight and obesity prevalences, whereas a negative trend emerged for wasting, stunting-wasting (in boys, and normal-weight (in girls; no clear trend was evident for stunting. CONCLUSION: Significant positive changes in growth and nutritional status were observed among Mozambican youth from 1992 to 2012, which are associated with economic, social and cultural transitional processes, expressing a dual burden in this population, with reduction in malnourished youth in association with an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

  18. Editor's Choice - Prolonged ICU Length of Stay after AAA Repair: Analysis of Time Trends and Long-term Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavali, H; Mani, K; Tegler, G; Kawati, R; Covaciu, L; Wanhainen, A

    2017-08-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate the frequency and outcome of prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair in the endovascular era. All patients operated on for AAA between 1999 and 2013 at Uppsala University hospital were identified. Data were retrieved from the Swedish Vascular registry, the Swedish Intensive Care registry, the National Population registry, and case records. Prolonged ICU LOS was defined as ≥ 48 h during the primary hospital stay. Patients surviving ≥ 48 h after AAA surgery were included in the analysis. A total of 725 patients were identified, of whom 707 (97.5%) survived ≥ 48 h; 563 (79.6%) underwent intact AAA repair and 144 (20.4%) ruptured AAA repair. A total of 548 patients (77.5%) required AAA repairs in 1999 to 7.3% in 2013 (p < .001) whereas the use of endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) increased from 6.9% in 1999 to 78.0% in 2013 (p < .001). The 30 day survival rate was 98.2% for those with < 48 h ICU stay versus 93.0% for 2-6 days versus 81.8% for ≥ 7 days (p < .001); the corresponding 90 day survival was 97.1% versus 86.1% versus 63.6% (p < .001) respectively. For patients surviving 90 days after repair, there was no difference in long-term survival between the groups. During the period of progressively increasing use of EVAR, a simultaneous significant reduction in frequency of prolonged ICU LOS occurred. Although prolonged ICU LOS was associated with a high short-term mortality, long-term outcome among those surviving the initial 90 days was less affected. Copyright © 2017 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R; Adams, Michael J; Pearl, Christopher A; Wilson, Kristine W; Bull, Evelyn L; Lohr, Kristin; Patla, Debra; Pilliod, David S; Jones, Jason M; Wheeler, Kevin K; McKay, Samuel P; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-12-01

    Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido

  20. Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R.; Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Pilliod, David S.; Corn, P. Stephen; , KRISTINE W. WILSON; , EVELYN L. BULL; , KRISTIN LOHR; , DEBRA PATLA; , JASON JONES

    2013-01-01

    Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change.

  1. SECULAR TRENDS AND LATITUDE GRADIENTS IN SEX RATIOS AT BIRTH IN THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Grech

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births, which is anticipated to approximate 0.515, has been shown to exhibit latitude gradients and secular trends. Methods: Annual national data for male and female live births for the 15 countries that comprise the former Soviet Union were obtained from the World Health Organisation for the period 1980–2009 (115,167,569 total live births and analysed with contingency tables. Spearman correlation was also carried out to compare percentage annual gross domestic product growth (GDP% – downloaded from the World Bank and M/F. In this context, GDP% is used as a measure for economic hardship or wellbeing within the populace. Results: There have been overall highly significant secular increases in M/F (p < 0.0001 in the countries and regions investigated. M/F is significantly lower in the three more northern regions (Russian Federation, Baltic States and Central Asia. M/F 0.51324, 0.51335-0.51314 than the two more southern regions (Southern Caucasus and Eastern Europe. M/F 0.51654, 0.51635-0.51672. There was a male excess of 113,818 live births.There was a significant positive correlation between GDP% and M/F for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. There was a significant negative correlation in Estonia. Conclusion: Previous studies have shown that improving socioeconomic conditions increase M/F, and the converse has also been demonstrated. This is a potential influence in this geographical area since this region has relatively recently emerged from communist rule and experienced an overall economic upturn, but is only partially supported using GDP%. Another factor may be the selective termination of female pregnancies. The latitude gradient parallels that of neighbouring Europe but no theory has been put forward to convincingly explain this finding to date.

  2. Prevalence of osteoporosis and incidence of hip fracture in women - secular trends over 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sernbo Ingemar

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The number of hip fractures during recent decades has been reported to be increasing, partly because of an increasing proportion of elderly women in the society. However, whether changes in hip fracture annual incidence in women are attributable to secular changes in the prevalence of osteoporosis is unclear. Methods Bone mineral density was evaluated by single-photon absorptiometry at the distal radius in 456 women aged 50 years or above and living in the same city. The measurements were obtained by the same densitometer during three separate time periods: 1970-74 (n = 106, 1987-93 (n = 175 and 1998-1999 (n = 178, and the age-adjusted prevalence of osteoporosis in these three cohorts was calculated. Additionally, all hip fractures sustained in the target population of women aged 50 years or above between 1967 and 2001 were registered, whereupon the crude and the age-adjusted annual incidence of hip fractures were calculated. Results There was no significant difference in the age-adjusted prevalence of osteoporosis when the three cohorts were compared (P = 1.00. The crude annual incidence (per 10,000 women of hip fracture in the target population increased by 110% from 40 in 1967 to 84 in 2001. The overall trend in the crude incidence between 1967 and 2001 was increasing (1.58 per 10,000 women per year; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.17 to 1.99, whereas the age-adjusted incidence was stable over the same period (0.22 per 10,000 women per year; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.16 to 0.60. Conclusions The increased number of hip fracture in elderly women is more likely to be attributable to demographic changes in the population than to secular increase in the prevalence of osteoporosis.

  3. Providing long-term trend and gravimetric factor at Chandler period from superconducting gravimeter records by using Singular Spectrum Analysis along with its multivariate extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruszczynska, M.; Rosat, S.; Klos, A.; Bogusz, J.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) along with its multivariate extension MSSA (Multichannel SSA) were used to estimate long-term trend and gravimetric factor at the Chandler wobble frequency from superconducting gravimeter (SG) records. We have used data from seven stations located worldwide and contributing to the International Geodynamics and Earth Tides Service (IGETS). The timespan ranged from 15 to 19 years. Before applying SSA and MSSA, we had removed local tides, atmospheric (ECMWF data), hydrological (MERRA2 products) loadings and non-tidal ocean loading (ECCO2 products) effects. In the first part of analysis, we used the SSA approach in order to estimate the long-term trends from SG observations. We use the technique based on the classical Karhunen-Loève spectral decomposition of time series into long-term trend, oscillations and noise. In the second part, we present the determination of common time-varying pole tide (annual and Chandler wobble) to estimate gravimetric factor from SG time series using the MSSA approach. The presented method takes advantage over traditional methods like Least Squares Estimation by determining common modes of variability which reflect common geophysical field. We adopted a 6-year lag-window as the optimal length to extract common seasonal signals and the Chandler components of the Earth polar motion. The signals characterized by annual and Chandler wobble account for approximately 62% of the total variance of residual SG data. Then, we estimated the amplitude factors and phase lags of Chandler wobble with respect to the IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) polar motion observations. The resulting gravimetric factors at the Chandler Wobble period are finally compared with previously estimates. A robust estimate of the gravimetric Earth response to the Chandlerian component of the polar motion is required to better constrain the mantle anelasticity at this frequency and hence the

  4. Temporal Trends in Analgesic Use in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Systematic Review of International Prescribing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Frenais, Francesca L; Bedder, Rachel; Vickerstaff, Victoria; Stone, Patrick; Sampson, Elizabeth L

    2018-02-01

    To explore global changes in the prescription of analgesic drugs over time in the international long-term care (LTC) population. Systematic review. We included original research articles in English, published and unpublished, that included number of participants, country and year(s) of data collection, and prescription of analgesics (analgesics not otherwise specified, opioids, acetaminophen; scheduled only, or scheduled plus as needed (PRN)). LTC residents. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, PsycINFO, Cochrane, Web of Science, Google Scholar, using keywords for LTC facilities and analgesic medication; hand-searched references of eligible papers; correspondence. Studies were quality rated using an adapted Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Pearson correlation coefficients were generated between percentage of residents prescribed an analgesic and year of data collection. If available, we investigated changes in acetaminophen and opioid prescriptions. Forty studies met inclusion criteria. A moderate correlation (0.59) suggested that scheduled prescription rates for analgesics have increased over time. Similar findings were reflected in scheduled prescriptions for acetaminophen and opioids. No increase was seen when analyzing scheduled plus PRN analgesics. Use of opioids (scheduled plus PRN) appears to have increased over time. Worldwide, use of opioids and acetaminophen has increased in LTC residents. Research is needed to explore whether this reflects appropriate pain management for LTC residents and if PRN medication is used effectively. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

  5. Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Trend of Performance, Production and Cultivated Area of 17 Field Crops Khorasan Razavi Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zareabyaneh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Any planning for the future requires estimates of future conditions. It is possible to study changes over time series. In this study, changes of production and cultivated area of 17 field crops of Khorasan Razavi province in a 25-year period were determined with Mann - Kendall test, Sen’s Estimator Slope and linear regression. Analysis of the three tests showed that performance of 76.5% from yield, 88.2% from area under cultivation and 55.8% from agricultural production were significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 level. On the other hand, trend of yields 58.8% was increase, 17.7% was reduced and 23.5% was no significant trend. Similarly, trend of 23.5% from area under cultivation was acreage, 64.7% was reduction, and 11.8% was no significant trend. For production variable, 29.4% was significantly increased and 29.4% was significant reduction. More detailed analysis showed that performance, production and area under cultivation of three crops of cotton, grain and tomatoes increased significantly. Results of all three methods showed the highest trend of negatively performance and area under cultivation variation is related to pea and melon respectively. Furthermore, most of the positive trend in production of tomatoes and grain, performance in onions, potatoes and tomatoes and area under cultivation in tomato observed. The results showed that linear trend and the nonparametric tests of important products of province: wheat, barley, sugar beet, cotton, melons, watermelons and tomatoes in 0.01 were significant. This result shows the importance of these yields in gross state province product.

  6. The U.S. mussel watch : nationwide geographic and long-term trends of PAHs in coastal mussels and oysters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, A.J.; Lauenstein, G.C.; O'Connor, T.P.

    1998-01-01

    The issue of fishery evaluation criteria following oil spills in lakes, rivers and seas was discussed. This paper focused on the problem of developing criteria for closing and opening fisheries during responses to oil spills. Closures are implemented to prevent the public from consuming toxic chemicals such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and to prevent tainted sea food products from entering the marketplace. A U.S. nationwide program, called Mussel Watch Project of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Status and Trends (NS and T) Program, was established to monitor spatial distribution and temporal trends of contaminant concentrations at over 200 coastal and estuarian sites around the U.S. The program has analyzed concentrations of 44 PAHs. The trends of PAHs was compared with other pollutants. An assessment of the extent to which PAHs in mollusks reflect population density was discussed. 16 refs., 4 tabs

  7. Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.

    2018-03-30

    Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward

  8. LONG-TERM TRENDS IN GROWTH OF PINUS PALUSTRIS AND PINUS ELLIOTTII GROWING ALONG A HYDROLOGICAL GRADIENT IN CENTRAL FLORIDA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land-use change and urbanization has led to changes in the hydrologic regime in wet central Florida, with a trend toward lowered water table levels. These hydrologic changes are having environmental consequences in wetlands, where shifts in species composition and fire frequency...

  9. Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966–2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders, A.M.J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

    2018-01-01

    In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when

  10. The role of birth cohorts in long-term trends in liver cirrhosis mortality across eight European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trias-Llimós, Sergi; Bijlsma, Maarten J; Janssen, Fanny

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Understanding why inequalities in alcohol-related mortality trends by sex and country exist, is essential for developing health policies. Birth cohort effects, indicative of differences by generation in drinking, have rarely been studied. This study estimated the relative

  11. The role of birth cohorts in long-term trends in liver cirrhosis mortality across eight European countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trias Llimós, S.; Bijlsma, M.; Janssen, F.

    2017-01-01

    Background and aims Understanding why inequalities in alcohol-related mortality trends by sex and country exist, is essential for developing health policies. Birth cohort effects, indicative of differences by generation in drinking, have rarely been studied. This study estimated the relative

  12. Modeling a secular trend by Monte Carlo simulation of height biased migration in a spatial network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Detlef

    2017-04-01

    , of the whole network increased by up to 0.1 cm per iteration depending on the network model. The general increase in height within the network depended on connectedness and on the amount of height information that was exchanged between neighboring districts. If higher amounts of neighborhood height information were exchanged, the general increase in height within the network was large (strong secular trend). The trend in the homogeneous fishnet like network was lowest, the trend in the random network was highest. Yet, some network properties, such as the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelations of the migration simulation models differed greatly from the natural features observed in Swiss military conscript networks. Autocorrelations of district heights for instance, were much higher in the migration models. Conclusion: This study confirmed that secular height trends can be modeled by preferred migration of tall individuals into network hubs. However, basic network properties of the migration simulation models differed greatly from the natural features observed in Swiss military conscripts. Similar network-based data from other countries should be explored to better investigate height trends with Monte Carlo migration approach.

  13. Differing long term trends for two common amphibian species (Bufo bufo and Rana temporaria in alpine landscapes of Salzburg, Austria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Kyek

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the population trends of two widespread European anuran species: the common toad (Bufo bufo and the common frog (Rana temporaria. The basis of this study is data gathered over two decades of amphibian fencing alongside roads in the Austrian state of Salzburg. Different statistical approaches were used to analyse the data. Overall average increase or decrease of each species was estimated by calculating a simple average locality index. In addition the statistical software TRIM was used to verify these trends as well as to categorize the data based on the geographic location of each migration site. The results show differing overall trends for the two species: the common toad being stable and the common frog showing a substantial decline over the last two decades. Further analyses based on geographic categorization reveal the strongest decrease in the alpine range of the species. Drainage and agricultural intensification are still ongoing problems within alpine areas, not only in Salzburg. Particularly in respect to micro-climate and the availability of spawning places these changes appear to have a greater impact on the habitats of the common frog than the common toad. Therefore we consider habitat destruction to be the main potential reason behind this dramatic decline. We also conclude that the substantial loss of biomass of a widespread species such as the common frog must have a severe, and often overlooked, ecological impact.

  14. Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Kroll

    Full Text Available Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina, California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia, an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33, in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07, in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17. Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06. However, we cannot exclude

  15. Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small

  16. Long-term (2001-2012) trends of carbonaceous aerosols from a remote island in the western North Pacific: an outflow region of Asian pollutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boreddy, Suresh K. R.; Mozammel Haque, M.; Kawamura, Kimitaka

    2018-01-01

    The present study reports on long-term trends of carbonaceous aerosols in total suspended particulate (TSP) samples collected at Chichijima in the western North Pacific during 2001-2012. Seasonal variations of elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) concentrations showed maxima in winter to spring and minima in summer. These seasonal differences in the concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols were associated with the outflows of polluted air masses from East Asia, which are clearly distinguishable from pristine air masses from the central Pacific. The higher concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols during winter to spring are associated with long-range atmospheric transport of East Asian continental polluted air masses, whereas lower concentrations may be due to pristine air masses from the central Pacific in summer. The annual trends of OC / EC (+0.46 % yr-1), WSOC (+0.18 % yr-1) and WSOC / OC (+0.08 % yr-1) showed significant (p Asia.

  17. Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Lennartz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

  18. Decreasing soil water Ca2+ reduces DOC adsorption in mineral soils: implications for long-term DOC trends in an upland forested catchment in southern Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Jason Grainger; Eimers, M Catherine

    2012-06-15

    Positive trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration have been observed in surface waters throughout North America and northern Europe. Although adsorption in mineral soils is an important driver of DOC in upland streams, little is known about the potential for changes in DOC adsorption to contribute to these trends. We hypothesized that long-term declines in soil water Ca(2+) levels, in response to declining acid deposition, might influence DOC adsorption and that this could contribute to long-term DOC trends in an upland forested catchment in south-central Ontario, Canada. Between 1987 and 2009, DOC concentrations increased significantly (pDOC concentration (DOC(np)), which is a measure of the soil water DOC concentration at equilibrium with the soil, ranged from 1.27 to 3.75 mg L(-1) in B horizon soils. This was similar to the mean DOC concentrations of B horizon soil water (2.04-6.30 mg L(-1)) and stream water (2.20 mg L(-1)), indicating that soil and stream water DOC concentrations are controlled by equilibrium processes at the soil-water interface. Adsorption experiments using variable Ca(2+) concentrations demonstrated that as Ca(2+) decreased the DOC(np) increased (1.96 to 4.74 mg L(-1)), which was consistent with the observed negative correlation between DOC and Ca(2+) in B horizon soil water (pDOC adsorption (p>0.05), indicating that changes in DOC adsorption might be related to cation bridging. We conclude that declines in soil water Ca(2+) concentration can contribute to increasing DOC trends in upland streams by reducing DOC adsorption in mineral soils. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Long-term temperature trends and variability on Spitsbergen: the extended Svalbard Airport temperature series, 1898–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øyvind Nordli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the few long instrumental records available for the Arctic is the Svalbard Airport composite series that hitherto began in 1911, with observations made on Spitsbergen, the largest island in the Svalbard Archipelago. This record has now been extended to 1898 with the inclusion of observations made by hunting and scientific expeditions. Temperature has been observed almost continuously in Svalbard since 1898, although at different sites. It has therefore been possible to create one composite series for Svalbard Airport covering the period 1898–2012, and this valuable new record is presented here. The series reveals large temperature variability on Spitsbergen, with the early 20th century warming as one striking feature: an abrupt change from the cold 1910s to the local maxima of the 1930s and 1950s. With the inclusion of the new data it is possible to show that the 1910s were colder than the years at the start of the series. From the 1960s, temperatures have increased, so the present temperature level is significantly higher than at any earlier period in the instrumental history. For the entire period, and for all seasons, there are positive, statistically significant trends. Regarding the annual mean, the total trend is 2.6°C/century, whereas the largest trend is in spring, at 3.9°C/century. In Europe, it is the Svalbard Archipelago that has experienced the greatest temperature increase during the latest three decades. The composite series may be downloaded from the home page of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and should be used with reference to the present article.

  20. The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Sanidas, Elias

    2005-01-01

    The Australian dollar’s exchange rate (mainly in relation to the American dollar) has received a considerable attention in research and several models have been proposed to explain its trend and fluctuations. Thus, as a conclusion of this research we can say that this commodity currency very much depends on the terms of trade which in turn depend on commodity prices. The present paper is based on this conclusion and hence proposes the possibility that the Australian dollar’s behavior is overw...

  1. A Secular Trend in Birth Weight and Delivery Practices in Periurban Vietnam During 2005-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duong, Duc Minh; Nguyen, Anh Duy; Nguyen, Chuong Canh; Le, Vui Thi; Hoang, Son Ngoc; Bui, Ha Thi Thu

    2017-07-01

    The remarkable increase in Vietnamese economic conditions can increase the birth weight in neonates and better delivery practices among women. The Chi Linh Health and Demographic Surveillance System started in 2004. An open cohort of data consisting of about 57 561 people from 17 993 households has been followed primarily with respect to demography, economy, and education. The aim of this research is to study secular trends in delivery practice and birth weight in the past decade (2005-2012) in Chi Linh. We found a significant change in delivery rates at hospitals and cesarean section rates, but the birth weights over a decade of drastic economic development were stable. Furthermore, the findings show significant associations of birth weight and delivery practices with the child's sex, mother's age, and household income. Our results might be considered as representative for other similar periurban settings in Vietnam. We suggest that appropriate policies should be developed given the reduction in the use of delivery services in commune health centers in urban areas.

  2. Secular and seasonal trends of Neospora abortion in California dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurmond, M C; Anderson, M L; Blanchard, P C

    1995-06-01

    This study was undertaken to determine if the proportion of dairy cow abortions attributable to Neospora sp. infection increased or occurred in a seasonal cycle during a 6-yr period. Abortions caused by Neospora sp. were tallied for all fetuses submitted to the Tulare branch of the California Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory between January 1985 and December 1990. Regression analysis of 221 cases of Neospora among 762 fetuses submitted showed a weak increasing secular trend (P = 0.053, r2 = 0.05), with predicted monthly proportions at the beginning and end of the 6 yr of 0.16 and 0.33, respectively. Using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type statistic, comparison of the 12-mo distribution of Neospora sp. cases and a hypothetical distribution of cows at risk of aborting found about 16% of variation in cases was attributable to season (P fall. Results indicate that Neospora sp. abortion in California dairy cows is not new or recently emerging and that seasonally related factors influence some of the risk of abortion. Results suggest that Neospora sp. has contributed to the high dairy cow abortion rate for many years, and that seasonally varying exposures may predispose to transmission or recrudescence of infection.

  3. A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin I. Cook

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc., especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982–2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation. Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2–4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread

  4. The road to success. Long-term prognosis for persons living with HIV in Denmark - time trends and risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lohse, Nicolai

    2016-01-01

    compared temporal trends in quality and quantity of ART introduction in Den-mark and Greenland. Despite similar levels of health worker education and economic resources, ART implementation and mortality decline in Greenland lacked several years behind Denmark. The study reminded us that although economy...... another 39 years, only 12.2 years less than a person in a matched general population cohort would survive. With improved survival and declining HIV-related co-morbidity, non-HIV related co-morbidity became a more visible contributor to the health status of persons with HIV. We assessed the impact of non......-HIV related comorbidity acquired before the person became infected with HIV. We found that 32% of the observed mortality in our cohort was due to HCV and co-morbidities measured by the Charlson Comorbidity Index, 13% corresponded to the background mortality in the population, and that only 55...

  5. Secular trends in height and weight among children and adolescents of the Seychelles, 1956–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Sarah

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Height of individuals has long been considered as a significant index of nutrition and health of a population; still, there is little information regarding the trends of height and weight among developing or transitional countries. We assessed the secular trends in height and weight in children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the Indian Ocean (African region. Methods Height and weight were measured in all students of all schools in four selected school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th grades for the periods 1998–9 (6391 children and 2005–6 (8582 children. Data for 1956–7 was extracted from a previously published report. Results At age 15.5 years, boys/girls were on average 10/13 cm taller and 15/9 kg heavier in 2005–6 than in 1956–7. Height increased in boys/girls by 1.62/0.93 cm/decade between 1956–7 and 1998–9 and by 1.14/1.82 cm/decade between 1998–9 and 2005–6. For weight, the linear increase in boys/girls was 1.38/1.10 kg/decade between 1956–7 and 1998–9 and 2.21/2.50 kg/decade between 1998–9 and 2005–6. Overall, the relative increase in weight between 1956–7 and 2005–6 was 5-fold higher than the relative increase in height. Conclusion Height and weight increased markedly over time in children aged

  6. Evaluation of Seismic Response Trends from Long-Term Monitoring of Two Instrumented RC Buildings Including Soil-Structure Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faheem Butt

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents analyses of the seismic responses of two reinforced concrete buildings monitored for a period of more than two years. One of the structures was a three-storey reinforced concrete (RC frame building with a shear core, while the other was a three-storey RC frame building without a core. Both buildings are part of the same large complex but are seismically separated from the rest of it. Statistical analysis of the relationships between maximum free field accelerations and responses at different points on the buildings was conducted and demonstrated strong correlation between those. System identification studies using recorded accelerations were undertaken and revealed that natural frequencies and damping ratios of the building structures vary during different earthquake excitations. This variation was statistically examined and relationships between identified natural frequencies and damping ratios, and the peak response acceleration at the roof level were developed. A general trend of decreasing modal frequencies and increasing damping ratios was observed with increased level of shaking and response. Moreover, the influence of soil structure interaction (SSI on the modal characteristics was evaluated. SSI effects decreased the modal frequencies and increased some of the damping ratios.

  7. Long-term trends in mercury and PCB congener concentrations in gannet (Morus bassanus) eggs in Britain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, M. Gloria; Walker, Lee A.; Best, Jennifer; Shore, Richard F.

    2009-01-01

    Gannet (Morus bassanus) eggs from Bass Rock (North Sea) and Ailsa Craig (eastern Atlantic) were monitored for PCB congeners (1990-2004) and total mercury (1974-2004). Congener profiles for both colonies were dominated by PCBs 153, 138, 180, 118 and 170. All declined in concentration at Ailsa Craig but some (153, 170, 180) remained stable or increased slightly at Bass Rock. Egg congener concentrations at Bass Rock were typically 10-fold higher than at Ailsa Craig by 2002, and Principal Component Analysis indicated that colony differences were driven by the dominant congeners. Egg mercury concentrations were significantly lower at Bass Rock than at Ailsa Craig and temporal trends differed, there being a significant decline at Ailsa Craig but a marginal increase at Bass Rock. Our results suggest there may be differences in contamination between the eastern Atlantic and North Sea and/or there are colony differences in prey selection and associated contaminant loads. - Monitoring of PCBs and Hg in gannet eggs reveals contrasting temporal patterns between colonies on the eastern Atlantic and North Sea coasts of Britain

  8. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  9. Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velpuri, N M; Senay, G B

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the long-term trends in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. The seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on monthly precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient data from 1950 to 2009 obtained from 62 urban watersheds covering 21 major urban centers in the United States. The results indicate that only five out of 21 urban centers in the United States showed an uptrend in precipitation. Twelve urban centers showed an uptrend in runoff coefficient. However, six urban centers did not show any trend in runoff coefficient, and three urban centers showed a significant downtrend. The highest rate of change in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient was observed in the Houston urban watershed. Based on the results obtained, we also attributed plausible causes for the trends. Our analysis indicated that while a human only influence is observed in most of the urban watersheds, a combined climate and human influence is observed in the central United States. (letter)

  10. An initial investigation of the long-term trends in the fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) calibration parameters on the four Cluster spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alconcel, L. N. S.; Fox, P.; Brown, P.; Oddy, T. M.; Lucek, E. L.; Carr, C. M.

    2014-07-01

    Over the course of more than 10 years in operation, the calibration parameters of the outboard fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) sensors on the four Cluster spacecraft are shown to be remarkably stable. The parameters are refined on the ground during the rigorous FGM calibration process performed for the Cluster Active Archive (CAA). Fluctuations in some parameters show some correlation with trends in the sensor temperature (orbit position). The parameters, particularly the offsets, of the spacecraft 1 (C1) sensor have undergone more long-term drift than those of the other spacecraft (C2, C3 and C4) sensors. Some potentially anomalous calibration parameters have been identified and will require further investigation in future. However, the observed long-term stability demonstrated in this initial study gives confidence in the accuracy of the Cluster magnetic field data. For the most sensitive ranges of the FGM instrument, the offset drift is typically 0.2 nT per year in each sensor on C1 and negligible on C2, C3 and C4.

  11. Complex interplay between intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of long-term survival trends in southern elephant seals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McMahon Clive R

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Determining the relative contribution of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to fluctuations in population size, trends and demographic composition is analytically complex. It is often only possible to examine the combined effects of these factors through measurements made over long periods, spanning an array of population densities or levels of food availability. Using age-structured mark-recapture models and datasets spanning five decades (1950–1999, and two periods of differing relative population density, we estimated age-specific probabilities of survival and examined the combined effects of population density and environmental conditions on juvenile survival of southern elephant seals at Macquarie Island. Results First-year survival decreased with density during the period of highest population size, and survival increased during years when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI anomaly (deviation from a 50-year mean during the mother's previous foraging trip to sea was positive (i.e., El Niño. However, when environmental stochasticity and density were considered together, the effect of density on first-year survival effectively disappeared. Ignoring density effects also leads to models placing too much emphasis on the environmental conditions prevailing during the naïve pup's first year at sea. Conclusion Our analyses revealed that both the state of the environment and population density combine to modify juvenile survival, but that the degree to which these processes contributed to the variation observed was interactive and complex. This underlines the importance of evaluating the relative contribution of both the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that regulate animal populations because false conclusions regarding the importance of population regulation may be reached if they are examined in isolation.

  12. Long-term Measurements of Summer-time Ozone at the Walnut Grove Tower - Understanding Trends in the Boundary Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, A.; Di, P.; Mims, D.; Avise, J.; DaMassa, J.; Kaduwela, A. P.

    2015-12-01

    The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has been monitoring boundary layer ozone at the Walnut Grove Tower (WGT) since 1996 for investigating regional transport and vertical profile. Walnut Grove is located between Sacramento and Stockton, CA in the Sacramento - San Joaquin Delta. Sampling inlets are positioned at 30-ft, 400-ft, 800-ft, 1200-ft and 1600-ft levels of the 2000-ft tower, which is one of the tallest monitoring towers in the Western US. Ozone, ambient temperature, wind speed, and wind direction are simultaneously measured at each level, and reported as hourly averages. The current study included analyses of available ozone and corresponding meteorological data for the months of June - September from 1996 - 2014 with objectives to: 1) explore trends and inter-annual variability of ozone, 2) examine any correlations between ozone and meteorological parameters, 3) understand interactions of ozone measured at various levels, and 4) assess how well a regulatory state-of-the-science air quality model such as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) captures observation. Daily 1-hr maximum ozone has been consistently decreasing during the 1996 - 2014 period at a rate of ~1 ppb per year. This indicates that CARB's measures to control ambient ozone have been effective over the past years. Evolution of the vertical profile throughout the day shows that ozone is fairly homogeneously mixed between 1 - 5 pm, when mixing height typically reaches the maximum. Ozone at 30-ft shows the greatest variability because of its proximity to the ground and emissions sources - rises faster during morning hours (7 - 10 am) and declines more rapidly during evening hours (7 - 10 pm) compared to other levels. Air masses reaching the tower are predominantly southwesterly (247 - 257 deg.) at the bottom, and southwesterly to slightly northwesterly (254 - 302 deg.) at top levels. Daily 1-hr maximum ozone was negatively correlated with wind speed (i.e. ozone was high under

  13. Long-term trends in the prevalence of patients hospitalized with ischemic stroke from 1995 to 2010 in Sweden.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kok Wai Giang

    Full Text Available The prevalence of stroke is expected to increase partly because of prolonged life expectancy in the general population. The objective of this study was to investigate trends in the prevalence of patients hospitalized with ischemic stroke (IS in Sweden from 1995-2010.The Swedish inpatient and cause-specific death registries were used to estimate the absolute numbers and prevalence of patients who were hospitalized with and survived an IS from 1995-2010.The overall number of IS increased from 129,418 in 1995 to 148,778 in 2010. In 1995, the prevalence of IS was 189 patients per 10,000 population. An increase in overall prevalence was observed until 2000, and then it remained stable, followed by a decline with an annual percentage change of (APC -0.8% (95% CI -1.0 to 0.6 and with a final prevalence of 199 patients per 10,000 population in 2010. The prevalence of IS in people aged <45 years increased from 6.4 in 1995 to 7.6 patients per 10,000 population in 2010, with an APC of 2.1% (95% CI 0.9 to 3.4 from 1995-1998 and 0.7% (95% CI 0.6-0.9 from 1998-2010. Among those aged 45-54 years, the prevalence rose through the mid to late 1990s, followed by a slight decrease (APC: -0.7%, 95% CI-1.1 to -0.4 until 2006 and then remained stable with a prevalence of 43.8 patients per 10,000 population in 2010. Among ≥85 years, there was a minor decrease (APC: -0.3%, 95% CI -0.5 to -0.1 in overall prevalence after 2002 from 1481 to 1453 patients per 10,000 population in 2010.The overall prevalence of IS increased until 2000, but then remained stable followed by a slight decline. However, the prevalence of IS in the young increased through the study period. The absolute number of IS survivors has markedly increased, mainly because of demographic changes.

  14. The evolution of the global selenium cycle: Secular trends in Se isotopes and abundances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stüeken, E. E.; Buick, R.; Bekker, A.; Catling, D.; Foriel, J.; Guy, B. M.; Kah, L. C.; Machel, H. G.; Montañez, I. P.; Poulton, S. W.

    2015-08-01

    The Earth's surface has undergone major transitions in its redox state over the past three billion years, which have affected the mobility and distribution of many elements. Here we use Se isotopic and abundance measurements of marine and non-marine mudrocks to reconstruct the evolution of the biogeochemical Se cycle from ∼3.2 Gyr onwards. The six stable isotopes of Se are predominantly fractionated during redox reactions under suboxic conditions, which makes Se a potentially valuable new tool for identifying intermediate stages from an anoxic to a fully oxygenated world. δ82/78Se shows small fractionations of mostly less than 2‰ throughout Earth's history and all are mass-dependent within error. In the Archean, especially after 2.7 Gyr, we find an isotopic enrichment in marine (+0.37 ± 0.27‰) relative to non-marine samples (-0.28 ± 0.67‰), paired with increasing Se abundances. Student t-tests show that these trends are statistically significant. Although we cannot completely rule out the possibility of volcanic Se addition, these trends may indicate the onset of oxidative weathering on land, followed by non-quantitative reduction of Se oxyanions during fluvial transport. The Paleoproterozoic Great Oxidation Event (GOE) is not reflected in the marine δ82/78Se record. However, we find a major inflection in the secular δ82/78Se trend during the Neoproterozoic, from a Precambrian mean of +0.42 ± 0.45‰ to a Phanerozoic mean of -0.19 ± 0.59‰. This drop probably reflects the oxygenation of the deep ocean at this time, stabilizing Se oxyanions throughout the water column. Since then, reduction of Se oxyanions has likely been restricted to anoxic basins and diagenetic environments in sediments. In light of recent Cr isotope data, it is likely that oxidative weathering before the Neoproterozoic produced Se oxyanions in the intermediate redox state SeIV, whereas the fully oxidized species SeVI became more abundant after the Neoproterozoic rise of

  15. Quasi-biennial oscillation in atmospheric ozone, and its possible consequences for damaging UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruzdev, A N [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1996-12-31

    The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in ozone is supposed to be related to the QBO of zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere, with an approximate period of 29 months. Generally speaking, mechanisms of QBO-related effects in the extratropical atmosphere should depend on season and region, resulting in other periodicities (e.g., a 20-month periodicity) due to nonlinear interaction between the `pure` QBO and an annual cycle. Seasonal and regional dependences of QBO-related effects in ozone not only influence the regime of ozone variability itself, but can have important consequences, for example, for interannual changes in biologically active UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends. This work is concerned with these problems

  16. Quasi-biennial oscillation in atmospheric ozone, and its possible consequences for damaging UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruzdev, A.N. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1995-12-31

    The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in ozone is supposed to be related to the QBO of zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere, with an approximate period of 29 months. Generally speaking, mechanisms of QBO-related effects in the extratropical atmosphere should depend on season and region, resulting in other periodicities (e.g., a 20-month periodicity) due to nonlinear interaction between the `pure` QBO and an annual cycle. Seasonal and regional dependences of QBO-related effects in ozone not only influence the regime of ozone variability itself, but can have important consequences, for example, for interannual changes in biologically active UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends. This work is concerned with these problems

  17. A model approach to assess the long-term trends of indirect photochemistry in lake water. The case of Lake Maggiore (NW Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minella, Marco; Rogora, Michela; Vione, Davide; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio

    2011-08-15

    A model-based approach is here developed and applied to predict the long-term trends of indirect photochemical processes in the surface layer (5m water depth) of Lake Maggiore, NW Italy. For this lake, time series of the main parameters of photochemical importance that cover almost two decades are available. As a way to assess the relevant photochemical reactions, the modelled steady-state concentrations of important photogenerated transients ((•)OH, ³CDOM* and CO₃(-•)) were taken into account. A multivariate analysis approach was adopted to have an overview of the system, to emphasise relationships among chemical, photochemical and seasonal variables, and to highlight annual and long-term trends. Over the considered time period, because of the decrease of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content of water and of the increase of alkalinity, a significant increase is predicted for the steady-state concentrations of the radicals (•)OH and CO₃(-•). Therefore, the photochemical degradation processes that involve the two radical species would be enhanced. Another issue of potential photochemical importance is related to the winter maxima of nitrate (a photochemical (•)OH source) and the summer maxima of DOC ((•)OH sink and ³CDOM* source) in the lake water under consideration. From the combination of sunlight irradiance and chemical composition data, one predicts that the processes involving (•)OH and CO₃(-•) would be most important in spring, while the reactions involving ³CDOM* would be most important in summer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

    2016-02-01

    Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

  19. Morphometric distances among five ethnic groups and evaluation of the secular trend in historical Libya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danubio, Maria Enrica; Martorella, Domenico; Rufo, Fabrizio; Vecchi, Elvira; Sanna, Emanuele

    2011-01-01

    This study analysed the variations, both in space and time, of 10 body dimensions and 2 anthropometric indexes of 745 adult males belonging to 5 ethnic groups of historical Lybia (el-Haràbi, el-Baraghìts, Marabtìn, Oases inhabitants and Tuareg). The data were collected in the years 1928 and 1932 by Puccioni and Cipriani, two Italian anthropologists. The aim was to reconstruct the biological history of Libya at the time, and thus contribute to the ongoing debate on the evolution of the biological standard of living in developing Countries. The subjects were analysed by ethnicity and by 10-year age groups, after adjusting for age. The results of ANCOVA and Tukey's post-hoc test show that among and between groups there are statistical significant differences overall for armspan, height, head breadth, bizygomatic breadth, biiliac breadth/height and head breadth/head length indexes. By means of the cluster analysis, the el-Haràbi, el-Baraghìts and Marabtìn groups cluster together, whereas the Tuareg and Oases inhabitants cluster separately one from the other and both from the other three ethnic groups. Within-group variations are not very marked in all ethnicities. In general, there is the tendency, not statistically significant, to the reduction and/or stasis of body dimensions from the older to the younger, and the differences are greater among the older than the younger age classes. In conclusion, it can be argued that these groups, all different culturally and geographically, were following the same tendency of stasis of the secular trend of the body dimensions considered in this study, and such stasis persisted since, at least, the last twenty years of the 19th century, when the older were born.

  20. Eight years secular trends of physical self-esteem among Swedish adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raustorp, Anders

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to explore secular trends between 2000 and 2008 in physical self esteem by comparing cross sectional cohorts of young adolescents. Data of physical self esteem, mean steps per day and body mass index (BMI) were collected in comparable cohorts comprising 191 (103 girls) (2000) and 170 adolescents (101 girls) (2008) in a middle class Swedish community. There was a significant higher Global Self-esteem in the cohort 2008 compared with the 2000 cohort both in boys (p = .004) and girls (p = .018). Regarding Physical Self-worth, both boys and girls reported higher mean values in 2008, which were however not significant. Boys classified overweight/obese showed a significant lower value in Global Self-esteem (p = .001) in the 2008 cohort when compared with the overweight/obese in the 2000 cohort, but all other domains showed non significant differences. Girls classified overweight/obese showed a significant lower value in Physical Strength (p = .023), in the 2008 cohort when compared with the overweight/ obese in the 2000 cohort, but all other domains showed non significant differences. There was significantly higher Global Self-esteem in the cohort 2008 compared with the 2000 cohort both in boys and girls, and regarding Physical Self-worth, both boys and girls reported higher mean values in 2008 that were not significant. In the overweight/obese adolescents group, the only significant difference was a lower perceived Physical Strength in girls in 2008 and a significant lower Global Self-esteem in boys in 2008. Enhanced focus on physical activity in society and actions taken by the school might have influenced the result.

  1. Secular trends of pregnancies in women with inflammatory connective tissue disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallenius, Marianne; Salvesen, Kjell Å; Daltveit, Anne K; Skomsvoll, Johan F

    2015-11-01

    This study examined secular trends in reproductive outcome in women with inflammatory connective tissue disease compared with reference deliveries from the general population. Historical cohort study based on data registered in the Medical Birth Register of Norway from 1967 to 2009. The study included singleton births in women recorded with connective tissue disease (n = 851) and reference deliveries from the general population (n = 2 437 110). Births were stratified in four periods, 1967-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. Associations between connective tissue disease and maternal and perinatal outcomes by decade were assessed in logistic regression analyses and adjusted for maternal age at delivery and parity. In the 1970s, around 2.7 deliveries/year were registered for women with connective tissue disease (0.004% of all deliveries). This increased to 42 deliveries/year (0.07% of all deliveries) after 2000. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for cesarean section were 5.0 (95% CI 2.1-11.9) in the first and 1.8 (95% CI 1.4-2.3) in the last period. For preterm delivery the aOR decreased from 4.9 (95% CI 2.1-11.4) to 3.1 (95% CI 2.3-4.2) and the aOR for birthweight connective tissue disease. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were more common among women with connective tissue disease but risks have decreased over time. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  2. Capacity of Physiotherapy Workforce Production in Thailand: Public-Private Mix, Secular Trend and Geographic Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewsawang, Sarinee; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Vongsirinavarat, Mantana

    2016-06-01

    In Thailand, the shortage of physiotherapists has been an increasing concern because of increased health burden from demographic and epidemiologic changes. This study aims to analyse the current situation of the physiotherapy workforce production system, secular trend, geographical distribution and comparison of public and private physiotherapy training institutes. Longitudinal data related to production capacity of the physiotherapy institutes were applied. Data from 2008 to 2012 were obtained from all 16 physiotherapy institutes in Thailand. Data during 2000-2007 were also retrieved from annual reports from the Ministry of Education. Descriptive statistics were initially used. Comparison was made between public and private physiotherapy institutes in terms of the number of students admitted and graduated, number of teachers, annual tuition fee, student-teacher ratio and dropout rate within 1 year. Predictive factors for graduation within 4 years were determined using logistic regression. In Thailand, there was an average of 800 physiotherapy graduates per year. New private institutes have been recently established and have steadily increased student admission rates. However, this has resulted in a high student-teacher ratio (median 7.1, inter-quartile range (IQR) 5.9-10.0). The first-year dropout rate in 2012 was 29.1%. Geographically, the majority of the institutes are clustered in the central region. Multivariate analysis revealed significantly lower probability of graduation within 4 years among students admitted to the private institutes and those in non-north-east region. The production capacity of the physiotherapy workforce is below an estimated need. Private physiotherapy institutes need more support to improve the situation of staff shortages and student graduation rates. The non-central regions should be encouraged to produce more physiotherapists. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Secular trends in meat and seafood consumption patterns among Chinese adults, 1991-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z H; Zhai, F Y; Wang, H J; Zhang, J G; Du, W W; Su, C; Zhang, J; Jiang, H R; Zhang, B

    2015-02-01

    Several studies have suggested differential health effects in relation to different meat composition in Western population. The purpose of the study was to examine secular trends in meat and seafood consumption patterns among Chinese adults between 1991 and 2011. Our longitudinal data are from 21,144 adults aged 18-75 in the China Health and Nutrition Survey, prospective cohort study. We assessed the intakes of meat and subtypes with three 24-h dietary recalls. We conducted multilevel mixed-effect logistic and linear regression models to examine meat consumption dynamics. The proportions of Chinese adults who consumed red meat, poultry and seafood increased from 65.7% in 1991 to 86.1% in 2011, from 7.5 to 20.9% and from 27.4 to 37.8%, respectively. With rapid decrease in meat intakes since 2009, the intakes of total meat, red meat, poultry and seafood among their consumers were 86.7 g/day, 86.4 g/day, 71.0 g/day and 70.3 g/day in 2011, respectively, which were just slightly higher compared with those in 1991. Fatty fresh pork has been predominantly component of total meat overtime, which consituted 54.0% of total meat intake, 80.0% of fresh red meat intake and 98.7% of fatty fresh red meat intake in 2011. Over the past two decades, meat consumption patterns of Chinese adults have been characterized by having a predominant intake of fatty fresh pork, suboptimal intakes of seafood and increased proportion of adults having excessive intakes of red meat and poultry overtime.

  4. Secular trends in pediatric antiretroviral treatment programs in rural and urban Zambia: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutcliffe, Catherine G; Bolton-Moore, Carolyn; van Dijk, Janneke H; Cotham, Matt; Tambatamba, Bushimbwa; Moss, William J

    2010-07-30

    Since 2003 pediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs have scaled-up in sub-Saharan Africa and should be evaluated to assess progress and identify areas for improvement. We evaluated secular trends in the characteristics and treatment outcomes of children in three pediatric ART clinics in urban and rural areas in Zambia. Routinely collected data were analyzed from three ART programs in rural (Macha and Mukinge) and urban (Lusaka) Zambia between program implementation and July 2008. Data were obtained from electronic medical record systems and medical record abstraction, and were categorized by year of program implementation. Characteristics of all HIV-infected and exposed children enrolled in the programs and all children initiating treatment were compared by year of implementation. Age decreased and immunologic characteristics improved in all groups over time in both urban and rural clinics, with greater improvement observed in the rural clinics. Among children both eligible and ineligible for ART at clinic enrollment, the majority started treatment within a year. A high proportion of children, particularly those ineligible for ART at clinic enrollment, were lost to follow-up prior to initiating ART. Among children initiating ART, clinical and immunologic outcomes after six months of treatment improved in both urban and rural clinics. In the urban clinics, mortality after six months of treatment declined with program duration, and in the rural clinics, the proportion of children defaulting by six months increased with program duration. Treatment programs are showing signs of progress in the care of HIV-infected children, particularly in the rural clinics where scale-up increased rapidly over the first three years of program implementation. However, continued efforts to optimize care are needed as many children continue to enroll in ART programs at a late stage of disease and thus are not receiving the full benefits of treatment.

  5. Secular trends in lipid-lowering treatment and lipid levels after a first acute myocardial infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lena Björck

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Lena Björck1, Catharina Welin2, Annika Rosengren11Department of medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital/Östra, Göteborg, Sweden; 2Institute of Health and Care Sciences, the Sahlgrenska Academy at Göteborg University, Göteborg, SwedenBackground: The beneficial effects of statins were unequivocally demonstrated in the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study (4S in 1994, leading to an increase in the use of lipid-lowering drugs. However, to what extent this translates into serum cholesterol levels in a real-life setting has not been systematically investigated.Objective: To estimate secular trends from 1994 to 2002 in blood lipid levels among unselected younger patients after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI.Method: Descriptive single centre study using consecutive data collection in 781 patients (aged <65 years hospitalized with a first AMI during the period 1994–2002.Results: From 1994–2002, the use of lipid-lowering drugs increased from 10% to 94% for men and from 23% to 90% for women. In 1994, the mean serum cholesterol levels were 6.53 mmol/l in men and 6.32 mmol/l in women, decreasing to 4.31 mmol/l and 5.13 mmol/l in men and women, respectively, in 2002. Still, only 56% of the men and 35% of the women had total serum cholesterol levels <4.5 mmol/l in 2002.Conclusion: Despite a marked increase in lipid-lowering drug treatment in which there was an increase from about 10% in 1994 to more than 90% in 2002, current target levels of <4.5 mmol/l for serum cholesterol were not achieved in a significant proportion of post-AMI patients.Keywords: lipid levels, lipid-lowering medication, myocardial infarction, risk factors

  6. Long-term trends of changes in pine and oak foliar nitrogen metabolism in response to chronic nitrogen amendments at Harvard Forest, MA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minocha, Rakesh; Turlapati, Swathi A; Long, Stephanie; McDowell, William H; Minocha, Subhash C

    2015-08-01

    We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements were analyzed for control, low N (LN, 50 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1)) and high N (HN, 150 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1)) treatments. In the pine stands, partitioning of excess N into foliar PAs and AAs increased with both N treatments until 2002. By 2005, several of these effects on N metabolites disappeared for HN, and by 2008 they were mostly observed for LN plot. A significant decline in foliar Ca and P was observed mostly with HN for a few years until 2005. However, sapwood data actually showed an increase in Ca, Mg and Mn and no change in PAs in the HN plot for 2008, while AAs data revealed trends that were generally similar to foliage for 2008. Concomitant with these changes, mortality data revealed a large number of dead trees in HN pine plots by 2002; the mortality rate started to decline by 2005. Oak trees in the hardwood plot did not exhibit any major changes in PAs, AAs, nutrients and mortality rate with LN treatment, indicating that oak trees were able to tolerate the yearly doses of 50 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1). However, HN trees suffered from physiological and nutritional stress along with increased mortality in 2008. In this case also, foliar data were supported by the sapwood data. Overall, both low and high N applications resulted in greater physiological stress to the pine trees than the oaks. In general, the time course of changes in metabolic data are in agreement with the published reports on changes in soil chemistry and microbial community structure, rates of soil carbon sequestration and production of woody biomass for this chronic N study. This correspondence of selected metabolites

  7. A burn prevention program as a long-term investment: trends in burn injuries among Jews and Bedouin children in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shani, E; Bahar-Fuchs, S A; Abu-Hammad, I; Friger, M; Rosenberg, L

    2000-03-01

    In order to broaden our long-term intervention efforts in elementary schools in Israel (underway since 1988) and to set priorities for further population-specific actions, we compared the pattern of burn injuries among two age groups (0-4; 5-14) of two ethnic groups of Jews and Bedouins admitted to a regional hospital between 1986 and 1995 (n = 1050). The findings indicated a significant downward trend, though somewhat nonlinear, in burn admissions among the older age groups. A relatively less favorable trend was observed for the younger age groups. Consistently across years, burn rates in the younger group of Bedouin children were the highest. For the 10-year period, a significant season by ethnic group variation in burn admissions was observed, with a peak in the spring and in the wintertime for the Jews and Bedouins, respectively. A significant trend of decrease, mostly among older children, in average lengths of hospital stay, was also evident. Yet, regardless of age group and across years, Bedouin children stayed longer in the hospital than Jewish children. The overall leading causes of injury (for 1992-1995) were hot liquids (69%), fire (17%), chemicals (9.5%) and contact (2%). In our view, there is a need to address at-risk populations through environmental, community and family-oriented interventions and to venture beyond the pathogenic factors to the investigation of the salutary factors of health under diverse life conditions.

  8. Long-term trends of suicide by choice of method in Norway: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 1969 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puzo, Quirino; Qin, Ping; Mehlum, Lars

    2016-03-11

    Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway. Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis. The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning. The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures

  9. Long-term trends in airborne SO2 in an air quality monitoring station in Seoul, Korea, from 1987 to 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Azmatullah; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Szulejko, Jan E; Brown, Richard J C; Jeon, Eui-Chan; Oh, Jong-Min; Shin, Yong Soon; Adelodun, Adedeji A

    2017-08-01

    Atmospheric concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) was intermittently measured at an air quality monitoring (AQM) station in the Yong-san district of Seoul, Korea, between 1987 and 2013. The SO 2 level was compared with other important pollutants concurrently measured, including methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 10 ). If split into three different periods (period 1, 1987-1988, period 2, 1999-2000, and period 3, 2004-2013), the respective mean [SO 2 ] values (6.57 ± 4.29, 6.30 ± 2.44, and 5.29 ± 0.63 ppb) showed a slight reduction across the entire study period. The concentrations of SO 2 are found to be strongly correlated with other pollutants such as CO (r = 0.614, p = 0.02), which tracked reductions in reported emissions due to tighter emissions standards enacted by the South Korean government. There was also a clear seasonal trend in the SO 2 level, especially in periods 2 and 3, reflecting the combined effects of domestic heating by coal briquettes and meteorological conditions. Although only a 16% concentration reduction was achieved during the 27-year study duration, this is significant if one considers rapid urbanization, an 83.2% increase in population, and rapid industrialization that took place during that period. Since 1970, a network of air quality monitoring (AQM) stations has been operated by the Korean Ministry of Environment (KMOE) for routine nationwide monitoring of air pollutant concentrations in urban/suburban areas. To date, the information obtained from these stations has provided a platform for analyzing long-term trends of major pollutant species. In this study, we examined the long-term trends of SO 2 levels and relevant environmental parameters monitored continuously in the Yong-san district of Seoul between 1987 and 2013. The data were analyzed over various time scales (i.e., monthly, seasonal, and annual intervals). The results obtained from

  10. Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim Woelfle

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

  11. Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Miya N.; Davis, Jerri V.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius

  12. A decade of monitoring at Swiss Long-Term Forest Ecosystem Research (LWF) sites: can we observe trends in atmospheric acid deposition and in soil solution acidity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannatier, Elisabeth Graf; Thimonier, Anne; Schmitt, Maria; Walthert, Lorenz; Waldner, Peter

    2011-03-01

    Trends in atmospheric acid deposition and in soil solution acidity from 1995 or later until 2007 were investigated at several forest sites throughout Switzerland to assess the effects of air pollution abatements on deposition and the response of the soil solution chemistry. Deposition of the major elements was estimated from throughfall and bulk deposition measurements at nine sites of the Swiss Long-Term Forest Ecosystem Research network (LWF) since 1995 or later. Soil solution was measured at seven plots at four soil depths since 1998 or later. Trends in the molar ratio of base cations to aluminum (BC/Al) in soil solutions and in concentrations and fluxes of inorganic N (NO(3)-N + NH(4)-N), sulfate (SO(4)-S), and base cations (BC) were used to detect changes in soil solution chemistry. Acid deposition significantly decreased at three out of the nine study sites due to a decrease in total N deposition. Total SO(4)-S deposition decreased at the nine sites, but due to the relatively low amount of SO(4)-S load compared to N deposition, it did not contribute to decrease acid deposition significantly. No trend in total BC deposition was detected. In the soil solution, no trend in concentrations and fluxes of BC, SO(4)-S, and inorganic N were found at most soil depths at five out of the seven sites. This suggests that the soil solution reacted very little to the changes in atmospheric deposition. A stronger reduction in base cations compared to aluminum was detected at two sites, which might indicate that acidification of the soil solution was proceeding faster at these sites.

  13. Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

    2016-11-01

    Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development

  14. Trends in Short- and Long-Term Outcomes for Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy Among Medicare Fee-for-Service Beneficiaries, 2007 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murugiah, Karthik; Wang, Yun; Desai, Nihar R; Spatz, Erica S; Nuti, Sudhakar V; Dreyer, Rachel P; Krumholz, Harlan M

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to assess trends in hospitalizations and outcomes for Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TTC). There is a paucity of nationally representative data on trends in short- and long-term outcomes for patients with TTC. The authors examined hospitalization rates; in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality; and all-cause 30-day readmission for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with principal and secondary diagnoses of TTC from 2007 to 2012. Hospitalizations for principal or secondary diagnosis of TTC increased from 5.7 per 100,000 person-years in 2007 to 17.4 in 2012 (p for trend < 0.001). Patients were predominantly women and of white race. For principal TTC, in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1% to 1.6%), 2.5% (95% CI: 2.2% to 2.8%), and 6.9% (95% CI: 6.4% to 7.5%), and the 30-day readmission rate was 11.6% (95% CI: 10.9% to 12.3%). For secondary TTC, in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality was 3% (95% CI: 2.7% to 3.3%), 4.7% (95% CI: 4.4% to 5.1%), and 11.4% (95% CI: 10.8% to 11.9%), and the 30-day readmission rate was 15.8% (95% CI: 15.1% to 16.4%). Over time, there was no change in mortality or readmission rate for both cohorts. Patients ≥85 years of age had higher in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality and 30-day readmission rates. Among patients with principal TTC, male and nonwhite patients had higher 1-year mortality than their counterparts, whereas in those with secondary TTC, mortality was worse at all 3 time points. Nonwhite patients had higher 30-day readmission rates for both cohorts. Hospitalization rates for TTC are increasing, but short- and long-term outcomes have not changed. At 1 year, 14 in 15 patients with principal TTC and 8 in 9 with secondary TTC are alive. Older, male, and nonwhite patients have worse outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Secular Trends of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: The Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Register.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiò, Adriano; Mora, Gabriele; Moglia, Cristina; Manera, Umberto; Canosa, Antonio; Cammarosano, Stefania; Ilardi, Antonio; Bertuzzo, Davide; Bersano, Enrica; Cugnasco, Paolo; Grassano, Maurizio; Pisano, Fabrizio; Mazzini, Letizia; Calvo, Andrea

    2017-09-01

    This study reports the long-term epidemiologic trends of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) based on a prospective register. To examine the 20-year epidemiologic trends of ALS in the Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta regions of Italy. The Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Register for ALS (PARALS) is an epidemiologic prospective register that covers 2 Italian regions (population of 4 476 931 inhabitants according to the 2011 census) from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2014. Case ascertainment is based on multiple sources (neurologic departments, hospital discharge archives, and mortality records). Incidence rates are age and sex standardized for the Italian population of the 2011 census. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was performed using a Poisson regression model. The primary study outcomes were long-term incidence and prevalence rates of ALS using a prospective design and their determinants. During the study period, a total of 2702 patients (mean [SD] age at onset, 65.7 [11.1] years; 1246 [46.1%] female and 1456 [53.9%] male) received a diagnosis of ALS between 1995 and 2014, corresponding to a crude annual incidence rate of 3.03 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 2.85-3.23) and an adjusted incidence rate of 2.78 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 2.57-2.96). The age-adjusted incidence rate increased in the 2 decades of the study (1995-2004: 2.66; 95% CI, 2.50-2.83; 2005-2014: 2.89; 95% CI, 2.71-3.07; P = .04), mostly in women. The adjusted rate ratio of men to women decreased from 1.27:1 (1995-2004) to 1.17:1 (2005-2014). The analysis of deviance for the APC regression models indicated that the drift variable is relevant in explaining the variation of ALS incidence rates over time in the overall population (change in deviance, 4.6553; P = .03) and in women (change in deviance, 3.8821; P = .05) but not in men (change in deviance, 0.77215; P = .38). A total of 479 patients with ALS were alive and had not undergone tracheostomy at the prevalence day

  16. Hydrological influences on long-term gas flow trends at locations in the Vogtland/NW Bohemian seismic region (German-Czech border

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinicke

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the typical methods for the identification of seismo-hydrological effects is to monitor changes in the free gas flow throughout springs or mofettes. For several years, the gas flow regime of mineral springs at Bad Brambach (Germany and mofettes in the Nature Park Soos (Czech Republic and its dependence on hydro-/meteorological parameters have been studied. The mineral spring ‘Wettinquelle’, Bad Brambach, is a well-known seismo- hydrologically sensitive location for swarmquakes at a special epicentral area of NW Bohemia. Since 2000, a slight upward trend in the gas flow of three Bad Brambach mineral springs has been observed, which became stronger after the ‘Eisenquelle’ spring capture reconstruction (winter 2003/2004. Similar behaviour could be detected at a mofette in Soos. The results correspond to a 3He/4He mantle ratio increase in gases at mofettes in the Cheb Basin (CZ traced by other authors for more than 12 years, and could give hints for a higher degassing activity of the magma body below that area. Common and special properties in the degassing regimes of the Bad Brambach and Soos locations are discussed. It is demonstrated that the long-term gas flow trend was interrupted in 2003 because of very low groundwater levels. This effect was amplified by the artificial groundwater lowering during the ‘Eisenquelle’ spring capture reconstruction.

  17. Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

    2018-02-01

    This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

  18. Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

    2017-06-02

    An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a

  19. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  20. Four billion years of ophiolites reveal secular trends in oceanic crust formation

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    Harald Furnes

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We combine a geological, geochemical and tectonic dataset from 118 ophiolite complexes of the major global Phanerozoic orogenic belts with similar datasets of ophiolites from 111 Precambrian greenstone belts to construct an overview of oceanic crust generation over 4 billion years. Geochemical discrimination systematics built on immobile trace elements reveal that the basaltic units of the Phanerozoic ophiolites are dominantly subduction-related (75%, linked to backarc processes and characterized by a strong MORB component, similar to ophiolites in Precambrian greenstone sequences (85%. The remaining 25% Phanerozoic subduction-unrelated ophiolites are mainly (74% of Mid-Ocean-Ridge type (MORB type, in contrast to the equal proportion of Rift/Continental Margin, Plume, and MORB type ophiolites in the Precambrian greenstone belts. Throughout the Phanerozoic there are large geochemical variations in major and trace elements, but for average element values calculated in 5 bins of 100 million year intervals there are no obvious secular trends. By contrast, basaltic units in the ophiolites of the Precambrian greenstones (calculated in 12 bins of 250 million years intervals, starting in late Paleo- to early Mesoproterozoic (ca. 2.0–1.8 Ga, exhibit an apparent decrease in the average values of incompatible elements such as Ti, P, Zr, Y and Nb, and an increase in the compatible elements Ni and Cr with deeper time to the end of the Archean and into the Hadean. These changes can be attributed to decreasing degrees of partial melting of the upper mantle from Hadean/Archean to Present. The onset of geochemical changes coincide with the timing of detectible changes in the structural architecture of the ophiolites such as greater volumes of gabbro and more common sheeted dyke complexes, and lesser occurrences of ocelli (varioles in the pillow lavas in ophiolites younger than 2 Ga. The global data from the Precambrian ophiolites, representative of nearly 50

  1. Effects of Antipsychotics on Secular Mortality Trends in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, René Ernst; Valentin, Jan B; Lolk, Annette

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate secular changes in mortality rates between patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and the general population as well as changes in antipsychotic drug treatment and the association between drug treatment and mortality in patients with AD in Denmark during a 12-year study...

  2. The role of diet on long-term concentration and pattern trends of brominated and chlorinated contaminants in western Hudson Bay polar bears, 1991-2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKinney, Melissa A.; Stirling, Ian; Lunn, Nick J.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Letcher, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    Adipose tissue was sampled from the western Hudson Bay (WHB) subpopulation of polar bears at intervals from 1991 to 2007 to examine temporal trends of PCB and OCP levels both on an individual and sum-(Σ-)contaminant basis. We also determined levels and temporal trends of emerging polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and other current-use brominated flame retardants. Over the 17-year period, Σ DDT (and p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDT) decreased (-8.4%/year); α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) decreased (-11%/year); β-HCH increased (+ 8.3%/year); and Σ PCB and Σ chlordane (CHL), both contaminants at highest concentrations in all years (> 1 ppm), showed no distinct trends even when compared to previous data for this subpopulation dating back to 1968. Some of the less persistent PCB congeners decreased significantly (-1.6%/year to -6.3%/year), whereas CB153 levels tended to increase (+ 3.3%/year). Parent CHLs (c-nonachlor, t-nonachlor) declined, whereas non-monotonic trends were detected for metabolites (heptachlor epoxide, oxychlordane). Σ chlorobenzene, octachlorostyrene, Σ mirex, Σ MeSO 2 -PCB and dieldrin did not significantly change. Increasing Σ PBDE levels (+ 13%/year) matched increases in the four consistently detected congeners, BDE47, BDE99, BDE100 and BDE153. Although no trend was observed, total-(α)-HBCD was only detected post-2000. Levels of the highest concentration brominated contaminant, BB153, showed no temporal change. As long-term ecosystem changes affecting contaminant levels may also affect contaminant patterns, we examined the influence of year (i.e., aging or 'weathering' of the contaminant pattern), dietary tracers (carbon stable isotope ratios, fatty acid patterns) and biological (age/sex) group on congener/metabolite profiles. Patterns of PCBs, CHLs and PBDEs were correlated with dietary tracers and biological group, but only PCB and CHL patterns were correlated with year

  3. Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubolini, Diego; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caffi, Mario; Brichetti, Pierandrea; Armiraglio, Stefano; Saino, Nicola

    2007-08-01

    Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982-2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift ( Apus apus), nightingale ( Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica), and house martin ( Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling ( Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow ( Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

  4. Long-Term Trends and Temporal Synchrony in Plankton Richness, Diversity and Biomass Driven by Re-Oligotrophication and Climate across 17 Danish Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korhan Özkan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A two-decade (1989–2008 time series of lake phyto- and zooplankton, water characteristics and climate in 17 Danish lakes was analysed to examine the long term changes and the effects of lake restoration efforts. The analyses of the pair-wise correlations across time series revealed a strong synchrony in climatic variables among the lakes. A significant, but weak increase in air temperature was observed and resulted in a corresponding increase in surface water temperature only in summer. Lake physico-chemical variables had weaker synchrony than climatic variables. Synchrony in water temperature and stratification was stronger than lake chemistry as the former is mostly affected by atmospheric energy flux. Synchrony in the taxonomic richness of the plankton groups and phytoplankton biomass was apparent, to a similar degree as observed for lake chemistry. The synchrony and the temporal trends in lake chemistry and plankton were more pronounced for the lakes with strong re-oligotrophication. Phytoplankton biomass decreased and plankton richness increased in these lakes, with a shift from Chlorophyta dominance towards more heterogeneous phytoplankton communities. Notably, a widespread significant positive trend in plankton richness was observed not only in lakes with strong re-oligotrophication but across all lakes. The widespread increase in plankton richness coincided with widespread decrease in phosphate and total nitrogen concentrations, as well as with the trends in climate indicating a likely joint effect of nutrient reduction and climate in driving lake plankton. However, temporal changes and synchrony as well as the recovery of richness and composition of lake plankton more coherently corresponded with the nutrient loading reduction across the Danish landscape, while the role of climate control of the lake plankton was less pronounced.

  5. Melting of major Glaciers in the western Himalayas: evidence of climatic changes from long term MSU derived tropospheric temperature trend (1979–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Prasad

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming or the increase of the surface and atmospheric temperatures of the Earth, is increasingly discernible in the polar, sub-polar and major land glacial areas. The Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau Glaciers, which are the largest glaciers outside of the Polar Regions, are showing a large-scale decrease of snow cover and an extensive glacial retreat. These glaciers such as Siachen and Gangotri are a major water resource for Asia as they feed major rivers such as the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Due to scarcity of ground measuring stations, the long-term observations of atmospheric temperatures acquired from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU since 1979–2008 is highly useful. The lower and middle tropospheric temperature trend based on 30 years of MSU data shows warming of the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude regions. The mean month-to-month warming (up to 0.048±0.026°K/year or 1.44°K over 30 years of the mid troposphere (near surface over the high altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau is prominent and statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval. Though the mean annual warming trend over the Himalayas (0.016±0.005°K/year, and Tibetan Plateau (0.008±0.006°K/year is positive, the month to month warming trend is higher (by 2–3 times, positive and significant only over a period of six months (December to May. The factors responsible for the reversal of this trend from June to November are discussed here. The inequality in the magnitude of the warming trends of the troposphere between the western and eastern Himalayas and the IG (Indo-Gangetic plains is attributed to the differences in increased aerosol loading (due to dust storms over these regions. The monthly mean lower-tropospheric MSU-derived temperature trend over the IG plains (dust sink region; up to 0.032±0.027°K/year and dust source regions (Sahara desert, Middle East, Arabian region, Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan and Thar Desert regions; up to 0.068±0.033

  6. Factors Associated With the Trend of Physical and Chemical Restraint Use Among Long-Term Care Facility Residents in Hong Kong: Data From an 11-Year Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Kuen; Kwan, Joseph S K; Wai Kwan, Chi; Chong, Alice M L; Lai, Claudia K Y; Lou, Vivian W Q; Leung, Angela Y M; Liu, Justina Y W; Bai, Xue; Chi, Iris

    2017-12-01

    with older age, falls, bladder incontinence, use of feeding tube, dementia, poor cognitive function, delirium, behavioral problems, and negative mood. The increasing time-trend of physical but not chemical restraint use remained significant after adjusting for other factors as mentioned above (coefficient = 0.092, P chemical restraint was highly prevalent among LTCF residents in Hong Kong, with an increasing trend over a period of 11 years, especially targeting the most physically and cognitively frail older people. Appropriate healthcare staff education and policy change are urgently needed to ensure personal care that is characterized by respect, dignity, empathy, and compassion for the older generation. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere of coastal areas of the Ross Sea, Antarctica: Indications for long-term downward trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozo, Karla; Martellini, Tania; Corsolini, Simonetta; Harner, Tom; Estellano, Victor; Kukučka, Petr; Mulder, Marie D; Lammel, Gerhard; Cincinelli, Alessandra

    2017-07-01

    Passive air samplers were used to evaluate long-term trends and spatial distribution of trace organic compounds in Antarctica. Duplicate PUF disk samplers were deployed at six automatic weather stations in the coastal area of the Ross sea (East Antarctica), between December 2010 and January 2011, during the XXVI Italian Scientific Research Expedition. Among the investigated persistent organic compounds, Hexachlorobenzene was the most abundant, with air concentrations ranging from 0.8 to 50 pg m -3 . In general, the following decreasing concentration order was found for the air samples analyzed: HCB > PeCB > PCBs > DDTs > HCHs. While HCB concentrations were in the same range as those reported in the atmosphere of other Antarctic sampling areas and did not show a decline, HCHs and DDTs levels were lower or similar to those determined one or two decades ago. In general, the very low concentrations reflected the pristine state of the East Antarctica air. Backward trajectories indicated the prevalence of air masses coming from the Antarctic continent. Local contamination and volatilization from ice were suggested as potential sources for the presence of persistent organic pollutants in the atmosphere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

    2017-04-01

    Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those

  9. The long-term spatial-temporal trends and burden of esophageal cancer in one high-risk area: A population-registered study in Feicheng, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiubin Sun

    Full Text Available Feicheng County is a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in Shandong province, China. It is important to determine the long-term spatio-temporal trends in epidemiological characteristics and the burden of esophageal cancer, especially since the implementation of the national esophageal cancer screening program for early detection and treatment in 2005.The data collected in Feicheng County from 2001 to 2012 was extracted from the whole-population cancer registry system. The incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY and changing trends in esophageal cancer according to age and sex were calculated and described.The incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Feicheng was consistently high, and increased significantly for male, but not for female from 2001 to 2012, according to the joinpoint regression analysis. The highest and lowest yearly crude incidence rates were 160.78 and 95.97 per 100000 for males, and 81.36 and 52.17 per 100000 for females. The highest and lowest crude yearly mortality rates were 122.26 and 94.40 per 100000 for males, and 60.75 and 49.35 per 100000for females. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma was the main pathology type and the tumor location changed significantly from 2001 to 2012. Overall, the DALY remained roughly stable and was estimated as 11.50 for males and 4.90 for females per 1000 people. The burden was mainly caused by premature death. There is an obvious spatial pattern in the distribution of incidence density and burden.Esophageal cancer remains a public health issue in Feicheng County with a high incidence, mortality and disease burden. The incidence and burden have obvious spatial heterogeneity, and further studies should be conducted to identify geographical risk factors for precise local prevention and control measures.

  10. Long-term trend in ground-based air temperature and its responses to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity in the Yangtze River Delta, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xia; She, Qiannan; Long, Lingbo; Liu, Min; Xu, Qian; Zhang, Jiaxin; Xiang, Weining

    2017-10-01

    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), including Shanghai City, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, is the largest metropolitan region in China. In the past decades, the region has experienced massive urbanization and detrimentally affected the environment in the region. Identifying the spatio-temporal variations of climate change and its influencing mechanism in the YRD is an important task for assessing their impacts on the local society and ecosystem. Based on long-term (1958-2014) observation data of meteorological stations, three temperature indices, i.e. extreme maximum temperature (TXx), extreme minimum temperature (TNn), and mean temperature (TMm), were selected and spatialized with climatological calculations and spatial techniques. Evolution and spatial heterogeneity of three temperature indices over YRD as well as their links to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity were investigated. In the whole YRD, a statistically significant overall uptrend could be detected in three temperature indices with the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method. The linear increasing trend for TMm was 0.31 °C/10 a, which was higher than the global average (0.12 °C/10 a during 1951-2012). For TXx and TNn, the increasing rates were 0.41 °C/10 a and 0.52 °C/10 a. Partial correlation analysis indicated that TMm was more related with TXx (rp = 0.68, p < 0.001) than TNn (rp = 0.48, p < 0.001). Furthermore, it was detected with M-K analysis at pixel scale that 62.17%, 96.75% and 97.05% of the areas in the YRD showed significant increasing trends for TXx, TNn and TMm, respectively. The increasing trend was more obvious in the southern mountainous areas than the northern plains areas. Further analysis indicated that the variation of TXx over YRD was mainly influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. economic development), while TNn was more affected by atmospheric circulations (e.g., the Eurasian zonal circulation index (EAZ) and the cold air activity index (CA)). For TMm, it was a

  11. Long-term trends of surface-water mercury and methylmercury concentrations downstream of historic mining within the Carson River watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morway, Eric D; Thodal, Carl E; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark

    2017-10-01

    The Carson River is a vital water resource for local municipalities and migratory birds travelling the Pacific Flyway. Historic mining practices that used mercury (Hg) to extract gold from Comstock Lode ore has left much of the river system heavily contaminated with Hg, a practice that continues in many parts of the world today. Between 1998 and 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) collected and analyzed Carson River water for Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations resulting in a sixteen year record of unfiltered total mercury (uf.THg), filtered (dissolved) Hg (f.THg), total methylmercury (uf.MeHg), filtered MeHg (f.MeHg), and particulate-bound THg (p.THg) and MeHg (p.MeHg) concentrations. This represents one of the longest continuous records of Hg speciation data for any riverine system, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate long-term trends in concentrations and annual loads. During the period of analysis, uf.THg concentration and load trended downward at rates of -0.85% and -1.8% per year, respectively. Conversely, the f.THg concentration increased at a rate of 1.7% per year between 1998 and 2005, and 4.9% per year between 2005 and 2013. Trends in flow-normalized partition coefficients for both Hg and MeHg suggest a statistically significant shift from the particulate to the filtered phase. The upwardly accelerating f.THg concentration and observed shift from the solid phase to the aqueous phase among the pools of Hg and MeHg within the river water column signals an increased risk of deteriorating ecological conditions in the lower basin with respect to Hg contamination. More broadly, the 16-year trend analysis, completed 140 years after the commencement of major Hg releases to the Carson River, provides a poignant example of the ongoing legacy left behind by gold and silver mining techniques that relied on Hg amalgamation, and a cautionary tale for regions still pursuing the practice in other countries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Comparative trends in incident fracture rates for all long-term care and community-dwelling seniors in Ontario, Canada, 2002-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, A; Kennedy, C C; Ioannidis, G; Cameron, C; Croxford, R; Adachi, J D; Mursleen, S; Jaglal, S

    2016-03-01

    In this population-based study, we compared incident fracture rates in long-term care (LTC) versus community seniors between 2002 and 2012. Hip fracture rates declined more rapidly in LTC than in the community. An excess burden of fractures occurred in LTC for hip, pelvis, and humerus fractures in men and hip fractures only in women. This study compares trends in incident fracture rates between long-term care (LTC) and community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years, 2002-2012. This is a population-based cohort study using administrative data. Measurements were age/sex-adjusted incident fracture rates and rate ratios (RR) and annual percent change (APC). Over 11 years, hip fracture rates had a marked decline occurring more rapidly in LTC (APC, -3.49 (95% confidence interval (CI), -3.97, -3.01)) compared with the community (APC, -2.93 (95% CI, -3.28, -2.57); p community (RRs: women, 1.55 (95% CI, 1.45, 1.67); men, 2.18 (95% CI, 1.93, 2.47)). Higher rates of pelvis (RR, 1.48 (95% CI, 1.22, 1.80)) and humerus (RR, 1.40 (95% CI, 1.07, 1.84)) fractures were observed in LTC men, not women. In women, wrist (RR, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71, 0.81)) and spine (RR, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.45, 0.61)) fracture rates were lower in LTC than the community; in men, spine (RR, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.57, 0.98) but not wrist fracture (RR, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.67, 1.23)) rates were significantly lower in LTC than the community. Previous studies in the community have shown declining hip fracture rates over time, also demonstrated in our study but at a more rapid rate in LTC. Rates of humerus and wrist fractures also declined. An excess burden of fractures in LTC occurred for hip fractures in women and for hip, pelvis, and humerus fractures in men.

  13. Secular Trends and Latitude Gradients in Sex Ratios at Birth in Czechoslovakia and the Post-Czechoslovakian States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Grech

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Latitude gradients and secular trends in Europe and North America have been found in the male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births which is expected to be 0.515. Annual national data for Czechoslovakia and the post-Czechoslovakian (Czech Republic and Slovakia countries for male and female live births were obtained from the World Health Organisation and analysed with contingency tables. This study analysed 13,123,538 live births. An overall decreasing trend in M/F was found (p < 00001. No latitude gradient was noted. There was an overall deficit of 15,232 male births based on an M/F of 0.515. M/F is declining in this region, despite well developing economies that have resisted the worldwide slowdown. An interplay of several poorly understood factors is likely.

  14. A Secular Indicator Of the Degree Of Economic Development and Synthetic Evaluation Of Population Well-Being Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available he specifically multidisciplinary approach employed in the present paper is motivated by the validity of Engel’s sociological laws, the usefulness of the elasticity of the population’s food products demand according to income, the statistical association between the contraction of the share of expenditures for these goods and the expansion of economy development, and the consistent assessment of the trends in population well-being, in keeping with the research of family budgets, focusing on the case of Romania in the last century. The introduction is devoted to the statistical, economic and sociological tools for assessing economic development and the trends in well-being. The first section describes the weighting coefficients in the universe of interpret indexes, and the second presents the methodology relating to a secular instrument of assessing the degree of economic development and the synthetic evaluation of the trends of well-being in Romania, in parallel to a number of maximum and minimum (European and international trends. The results presented, and the discussion caused by the statistical confrontation of that statistical, economic and sociological information, embrace, with the conclusions, the attempt made by the whole of the paper, to round up, by means of this tool, a necessary set of secular or Schumpeterian indicators, harmonized and comparable, of the GDP/capita type, or such as cost of life index, consumer price index, public and external debt, etc.; such already constructed indicators contribute to delineating the historical and macro-behavioural specificity of such an economy in Eastern Europe as that of Romania.

  15. Long-term collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  16. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wanyun; Xu, Xiaobin; Lin, Meiyun; Lin, Weili; Tarasick, David; Tang, Jie; Ma, Jianzhong; Zheng, Xiangdong

    2018-01-01

    Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l.) on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994-2013 has increased significantly by 0.2-0.3 ppbv yr-1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3), a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) can explain ˜ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1). AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why summertime ozone measured at WLG shows no significant trend

  17. Detection of long-term trends in carbon accumulation by forests in Northeastern U. S. and determination of causal factors: Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. William Munger; Steven C. Wofsy; David R. Foster

    2012-01-31

    The overall project goal was to quantify the trends and variability for Net ecosystem exchange of CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O, and energy by northeastern forests, with particular attention to the role of succession, differences in species composition, legacies of past land use, and disturbances. Measurements included flux measurements and observations of biomass accumulation using ecosystem modeling as a framework for data interpretation. Continuation of the long-term record at the Environmental Measurement Site (EMS) Tower was a priority. The final quality-assured CO{sub 2}-flux data now extend through 2010. Data through 2011 are collected but not yet finalized. Biomass observations on the plot array centered on the tower are extended to 2011. Two additional towers in a hemlock stand (HEM) and a younger deciduous stand (LPH) complement the EMS tower by focusing on stands with different species composition or age distribution and disturbance history, but comparable climate and soil type. Over the period since 1993 the forest has added 24.4 Mg-C ha{sup -1} in the living trees. Annual net carbon uptake had been increasing from about 2 Mg-C ha{sup -1}y{sup -1} in the early 1990s to nearly 6 Mg-C ha{sup -1}y{sup -1} by 2008, but declined in 2009-2010. We attribute the increasing carbon uptake to a combination of warmer temperatures, increased photosynthetic efficiency, and increased influence by subcanopy hemlocks that are active in the early spring and late autumn when temperatures are above freezing but the deciduous canopy is bare. Not all of the increased carbon accumulation was found in woody biomass. Results from a study using data to optimize parameters in an ecosystem process model indicate that significant changes in model parameters for photosynthetic capacity and shifts in allocation to slow cycling soil organic matter are necessary for the model to match the observed trends. The emerging working hypothesis is that the pattern of increasing carbon uptake over the

  18. Continental-scale assessment of long-term trends in wet deposition trajectories: Role of anthropogenic and hydro-climatic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, J.; Gall, H. E.; Niyogi, D.; Rao, S.

    2012-12-01

    The global trend of increased urbanization, and associated increased intensity of energy and material consumption and waste emissions, has contributed to shifts in the trajectories of aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments. Here, we focus on continental-scale spatiotemporal patterns in two atmospheric constituents (nitrate and sulfate), whose global biogeochemical cycles have been dramatically altered by emissions from mobile and fixed sources in urbanized and industrialized regions. The observed patterns in wet deposition fluxes of nitrate and sulfate are controlled by (1) natural hydro-climatic forcing, and (2) anthropogenic forcing (emissions and regulatory control), both of which are characterized by stochasticity and non-stationarity. We examine long-term wet deposition records in the U.S., Europe, and East Asia to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural forcing factors jointly contributed to the shifting temporal patterns of wet deposition fluxes at continental scales. These data offer clear evidence for successful implementation of regulatory controls and widespread adoption of technologies contributed to improving water quality and mitigation of adverse ecological impacts. We developed a stochastic model to project the future trajectories of wet deposition fluxes in emerging countries with fast growing urban areas. The model generates ellipses within which projected wet deposition flux trajectories are inscribed, similar to the trends in observational data. The shape of the ellipses provides information regarding the relative dominance of anthropogenic (e.g., industrial and urban emissions) versus hydro-climatic drivers (e.g., rainfall patterns, aridity index). Our analysis facilitates projections of the trajectory shift as a result of urbanization and other land-use changes, climate change, and regulatory enforcement. We use these observed data and the model to project likely trajectories for rapidly developing countries (BRIC), with a

  19. Fundamental movement skills in adolescents: Secular trends from 2003 to 2010 and associations with physical activity and BMI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huotari, P; Heikinaro-Johansson, P; Watt, A; Jaakkola, T

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the secular trends in fundamental movement skills (FMS) among 15- to 16-year-old adolescents at 2 assessment points scheduled in 2003 and 2010 and to investigate the associations between FMS, physical activity (PA), and body mass index (BMI). In 2003, self-reported PA, weight and height, and objective FMS scores were collected from 2390 students, and in 2010, similar data were generated from a second sample of 1346 students. FMS were assessed during both assessment phases using 3 identical objective FMS tests that were figure 8 dribbling, jumping laterally, and coordination track tests. This study indicated that the sum index of FMS did not change among the boys and the girls between 2 data collection points. However, findings demonstrated a secular decline in coordination test scores in both gender groups between 2 measurement points but an improvement in girls' object control skills between 2003 and 2010. The results also showed that FMS had a significant main effect on BMI in both gender groups, whereas the main effect of PA on BMI was not significant for either gender group. Results also demonstrated that there was no significant interaction effect between FMS and PA on BMI in either of the girls' or the boys' groups. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Beyond DAPA and DACA: Revisiting Legislative Reform in Light of Long-Term Trends in Unauthorized Immigration to the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Warren

    2015-02-01

    exceeded the number who entered across the southern land border without inspection (EWIs in each year from 2008 to 2012.While the CMS estimates are based on sample data and assumptions that are subject to error, these trends are consistent with the best empirical information available.In November 2014 the Obama Administration announced an unprecedented set of executive action initiatives. At this writing, the Deferred Action for Parental Accountability (DAPA program and the expanded Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA program, which would provide work authorization and temporary reprieve from removal to eligible persons, have been preliminarily enjoined. The temporary injunction, which the US Department of Justice plans to appeal to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, comes in response to a legal challenge to the two programs by 26 states under Article II, section 3 of the US Constitution which requires the president to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed,” and under the Administrative Procedure Act (APA. In addition, the Republican majorities of the 114th Congress have vowed to prevent the implementation of these programs. However, the administration has expressed confidence that it will ultimately prevail in court and in its battle with Congress over these programs. Meanwhile, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs, community-based organizations (CBOs, and others continue to plan intensively for the DAPA and DACA programs, as well as for other executive action initiatives.This paper provides estimates of those who are potentially eligible for DAPA and DACA. However, it also looks beyond DAPA and DACA to make the case for broad legislative reform in light of long-term trends in unauthorized migration to the United States and the unauthorized resident population. In particular, it argues that substantial declines in the unauthorized population—a goal shared by partisans on both sides of the immigration debate—will require reform of the legal

  1. Secular trends in consultations for asthma in early childhood, the 16 administrative regions of Morocco, 2004-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, Mina; Abouqal, Redouane; ElMarnissi, Abdelilah

    2015-09-17

    Little is known about asthma trend in Morocco, particularly in early childhood. Furthermore, when dealing with asthma related environmental risk factors in Morocco, decision-making focus is in one region R9, while 16 regions make up the country. This work aims at studying 9-year trends in consultations for asthma in under-5 children in the 16 individual regions with respect to area and age group. Direct method use, based on the only available national data from the open access files of the ministry of health, standardizing data for three age groups (0-11 ; 12-23 and 24-59 months). We compared age-adjusted rates, stratified by area (urban and rural areas) within each region (Wilcoxon's signed ranks test), and between all regions emphasizing on R9. Secular trends are examined (Kendall's rank correlation test). We also compared directly standardized rates as a rate ratio for two study populations (that of R9 and any region with highest rates). We finally compared rates by age group in selected regions. Secular increase in prevalence rates was shown in both urban and rural Morocco, particularly in urban areas of R10, R14, R16 and R5, and in rural areas of R14 and R16. In urban area of R10 (the highest age-adjusted prevalence rates area) the rates showed secular increase from 6.82 at 95 % CI = [6.44 to 7.19] per 1000 childhood population in 2004 to 20.91 at 95 % CI = [20.26 to 21.56] per 1000 childhood population in 2012 (P = 0.001). Rates were higher in urban than rural Morocco, particularly in R8, R9, R10, R14, R15 ; R6 was an exception. Rates in R10 were 1.63 higher than that in R9 in 2004 and rose to be 2.55 higher in 2012 ; rates in urban area of R14, about 3 times lower than that in R9 in 2004, increased to be similar in 2012. The highest-prevalence age group varied according to region and area. The regions that worth decision making attention are the urban areas of R10 (the highest prevalence rates Moroccan area, showing continuous increase), of R9, of R14

  2. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Comité des collectes à long terme

    2011-01-01

    It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

  3. Long-Term Trends in Loblolly Pine Site Productivity and Stand Characteristics Observed at the Impac Research Site in Alachua County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy A. Martin; Eric J. Jokela

    2002-01-01

    While nutrient availability is a dominant factor controlling leaf area development and pine productivity in the southeastern USA, few studies have explored the long-term interactions among nutrient inputs, canopy foliage production, and aboveground biomass production. In order to address these questions, the Intensive Management Practices Assessment Center (IMPAC)...

  4. Adult children stepping in? Long-term care reforms and trends in children’s provision of household support to impaired parents in the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P.B. van den Broek (Thijs); P.A. Dykstra (Pearl); R.J. van der Veen (Romke)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractRecent long-term care (LTC) reforms in the Netherlands are illustrative of those taking place in countries with a universalistic LTC model based on extensive provision of state-supported services. They entail a shift from de-familialisation, in which widely available state-supported

  5. Seasonal behavior and long-term trends of tropospheric ozone, its precursors and chemical conditions over Iran: A view from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yunsoo; Souri, Amir Hossein

    2015-04-01

    To identify spatial and temporal variations over the Iranian region, this study analyzed tropospheric formaldehyde (HCHO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), carbon monoxide (CO) columns from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), and tropospheric column O3 (TCO) from OMI/MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) satellites from 2005 to 2012. The study discovered high levels of HCHO (∼12 × 1015 molec./cm2) from plant isoprene emissions in the air above parts of the northern forest of Iran during the summer and from the oxidation of HCHO precursors emitted from petrochemical industrial facilities and biomass burning in South West Iran. This study showed that maximum NO2 levels (∼18 × 1015 molec./cm2) were concentrated in urban cities, indicating the predominance of anthropogenic sources. The results indicate that maximum concentrations were found in the winter, mainly because of weaker local winds and higher heating fuel consumption, in addition to lower hydroxyl radicals (OH). The high CO concentrations (∼2 × 1018 molec./cm2) in the early spring were inferred to mainly originate from a strong continental air mass from anthropogenic CO "hotspots" including regions around Caspian Sea, Europe, and North America, although the external sources of CO were partly suppressed by the Arabian anticyclone and topographic barriers. Variations in the TCO were seen to peak during the summer (∼40 DU), due to intensive solar radiation and stratospheric sources. This study also examined long-term trends in TCO and its precursors over a period of eight years in five urban cities in Iran. To perform the analysis, we estimated seasonal changes and inter-seasonal variations using least-squares harmonic estimation (LS-HE), which reduced uncertainty in the trend by 5-15%. The results showed significant increases in the levels of HCHO (∼0.08 ± 0.06 × 1015 molec./cm2 yr-1), NO2 (∼0.08 ± 0.02 × 1015 molec./cm2 yr-1), and peak

  6. Ten-year secular trend of overweight and obesity in school children in south-eastern Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Mazur

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To examine the trend in prevalence of overweight and obesity in schoolchildren from south-eastern Poland over a 10-year period. Materials and Method. A cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected primary schools. In total, 4,248 children (2,182 boys and 2,066 girls, mean age 10.5±2.4 years, were examined in 1998, and 2,412 children (1,184 boys and 1,228 girls, mean age 10.5±2.3 years in 2008. In each school the entire population was studied. Results. In 2008, the prevalence of overweight in girls was 13.3% and obesity 7.7%, compared to 12.0% and 10.1% in 1998. The decrease in obesity prevalence was statistically significant. In boys, the prevalence of overweight in 2008 was 14.2% and obesity 6.4%, compared to 10.5% and 6.8% in 1998. The increase in overweight prevalence among boys was statistically significant. Conclusions. A trend toward stabilization of the prevalence of overweight and obesity was noted in school children from south-eastern Poland between 1998–2008. The declining prevalence of obesity in girls and increased prevalence of overweight in boys demonstrates that in this age group of children the secular trend is gender dependent.

  7. Secular trends in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican school-aged children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Fernanda Karina; Maia, José A R; Gomes, Thayse Natacha Q F; Daca, Timóteo; Madeira, Aspacia; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Prista, António

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine secular changes in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican children and adolescents between 1992, 1999 and 2012. 3374 subjects (1600 boys, 1774 girls), distributed across the three time points (523 subjects in 1992; 1565 in 1999; and 1286 in 2012), were studied. Height and weight were measured, BMI was computed, and WHO cut-points were used to define nutritional status. ANCOVA models were used to compare height, weight and BMI across study years; chi-square was used to determine differences in the nutritional status prevalence across the years. Significant differences for boys were found for height and weight (p2012), and those from 2012 had the highest BMI (1999growth and nutritional status were observed among Mozambican youth from 1992 to 2012, which are associated with economic, social and cultural transitional processes, expressing a dual burden in this population, with reduction in malnourished youth in association with an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

  8. Mapping long-term changes in savannah crop productivity in Senegal through trend analysis of time-series of remote sensing data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tøttrup, Christian; Rasmussen, Michael Schultz

    2004-01-01

    Remote sensing, NDVI, trend analysis, environmental change, rainfall, land cover change, Senegal......Remote sensing, NDVI, trend analysis, environmental change, rainfall, land cover change, Senegal...

  9. [Secular trends of height among Chinese students aged 17 in 18 ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yi; Hu, Pei-jin; Zhang, Bing; Ma, Jun

    2015-06-18

    To analyze the secular trends of height among Chinese students aged 17 in different ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010. A total of 18 Chinese ethnic minorities' students, including Mongolian, Hui, Uygur, Zhuang, Korean, Tibetan, Miao, Buyi, Dong, Bai, Tujia, Hani, Dai, Lisu, Wa, Nakhi, Tu and Qiang as subjects were sampled from the 1985, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health. The heights of 17 years old people by gender in various ethnic minorities were analyzed and compared. From 1985 to 2010, the increments of adult heights increased significantly in many ethnic minorities' boys. In 2010, the average height of boys aged 17 years in each minority group was higher than 162 cm and was higher than 170 cm among boys from Hui, Mongolian and Korean groups. The ethnics with height growth rates of more than 2 cm per decade in boys were Hui (2.64 cm/decade) and Dong (2.05 cm/decade) and the ethnics with height growth rates of more than 1 cm per decade were Korean (1.99 cm/decade), Tibetan (1.90 cm/decade), Hani (1.80 cm/decade) and the other 9 minority groups. The average height of girls aged 17 years in each minority group was higher than 150 cm in 2010. The heights showed an upward trend in 15 minority groups, but with different degrees. The ethnics with height growth rates of more than 1 cm per decade were Hui (1.56 cm/decade) and Korean (1.29 cm/decade). The increments that were significant between 1985 and 2010 were Hui (3.89 cm), Korean (3.23 cm), Dong (2.35 cm) and the other 6 minority groups (Pminority groups during the past 25 years, but there was an obvious disequilibrium among various ethnic minorities. We should pay more attention to the minority groups with poor growth and give them more help. Meanwhile, we should also pay attention to the negative effects of the secular growth trend on those minority groups with fast increasing adult height.

  10. Secular trends in the prevalence of dementia and depression in Swedish septuagenarians 1976-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiberg, P; Waern, M; Billstedt, E; Ostling, S; Skoog, I

    2013-12-01

    It is not clear whether the prevalence of dementia and depression among the elderly has changed during the past 30 years. Population-based samples from Gothenburg, Sweden were examined with identical psychiatric and neuropsychiatric examinations at age 70 years in 1976-1977 (n = 404, response rate 78.8%) and 2000-2001 (n = 579, response rate 66.4%), and at age 75 in 1976-1977 (n = 303, response rate 78%) and 2005-2006 (n = 753, response rate 63.4%). Depression was diagnosed according to DSM-IV and dementia according to Kay's criteria. General linear models (GLMs) were used to test for differences between groups. Dementia was related to age but not to birth cohort or sex. Major depression was related to sex (higher in women) but not to birth cohort or age. Minor depression was related to birth cohort, sex (higher in women), age (higher at age 75) and the interaction effect of birth cohort × age; that is, the prevalence of minor depression increased with age in the 2000s but not in the 1970s. Thus, the prevalence of minor depression was higher in 2005-2006 than in 1976-1977 among 75-year-olds for both men (12.4% v. 3.7%) and women (19.1% v. 5.6%) whereas there were no birth cohort differences at age 70. Secular changes were observed only for minor depression, which is considered to be related more to psychosocial factors than major depression. The high prevalence of minor depression in later-born birth cohorts emphasizes the importance of detecting minor depression in the elderly.

  11. Secular trend in height in enlisted men and recruits from the Brazilian Navy born from 1970 to 1977

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Kac

    Full Text Available This study presents data from a survey on height trends in Brazilian Navy enlisted men and recruits born from 1970 to 1977. The sample consisted of 52,574 enlisted men and 4,459 recruits ranging in age from 18.00 to 18.99 years. The statistical processing employed two-way analysis of variance procedure, simple linear regression comparing height and year of birth and multiple analysis controlling for schooling (regression coefficient and the chi-square. The results show that enlisted men and recruits displayed height increments, characterizing a contemporary process of secular trend. Such increments were also present in the country's various macro-regions. The results were compared to a recent investigation of a national scope the National Survey on Health and Nutrition (PNSN and both enlisted men and recruits displayed higher median height than that reported by the PNSN. Level of schooling for individuals in the Navy is high, far superior to that of the Brazilian population as a whole. This set of data suggests that young men enlisting in the Navy are on average of a higher socioeconomic status than the Brazilian population in general, which limits possibilities for extrapolating the findings from this research.

  12. Secular trends in overweight and obesity among Icelandic adolescents: do parental education levels and family structure play a part?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsdóttir, Sigridur Þ; Kristjánsson, Álfgeir l; Sigfúsdóttir, Inga D; Garber, Carol E; Allegrante, John P

    2013-06-01

    To investigate whether the secular trend in the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland varied by levels of parental education and family structure. Odds ratios were calculated from repeated population-based, cross-sectional surveys comprising cohorts of 16- to 20-year-old Icelandic adolescents attending junior colleges in 1992 (n=4,922), 2004 (n=11,031), 2007 (n=11,229), and 2010 (n=11,388). Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from self-reported weight and height and categorised as normal weight or overweight and obese, and examined in relation to parental education level and family structure. The odds of being overweight increased by 2.62 and 1.71 for boys and girls respectively over each of the survey time points. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased across all three subgroups (low, medium, and high) of parental education level. The probability of overweight across all years were consistently the highest for youths with parents in the low-education category followed by middle-educated and high-educated parental background (peducation backgrounds increased over time and was generally explained more by the fathers' education than by the mothers' education (pFamily structure was not associated with the prevalence of overweight and obesity in our data. Differences in parental levels of education are associated with accelerating trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland.

  13. Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla; Jensen, Gorm B

    2013-01-01

    are treated without income associated treatment differences. In conclusion: Women in higher income groups have lower SBP than women in low-income groups and the gap between SBP in high-income women and low-income women increased with time. There were no significant differences in SBP-trend associated...

  14. Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

    2006-02-01

    Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

  15. Secular trends of allergic asthma in Danish adults. The Copenhagen Allergy Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linneberg, A; Nielsen, N H; Madsen, F

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies have reported increases in asthma prevalence among children world-wide. Less is known about similar trends in adults. We aimed to investigate whether the prevalence of allergic asthma symptoms had increased in an adult general population. Two cross-sectional surveys using identical......, the prevalence of allergic asthma symptoms increased significantly in this adult general population over a 9-year period....

  16. Simulating trends in crop yield and soil carbon in a long-term experiment - effects of rising CO2, N deposition and improved cultivation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berntsen, Jørgen; Petersen, Bjørn Molt; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2006-01-01

    Measurements of crop yield and soil carbon in the Bad Lauchstädt long-term fertiliser experiment were analysed with the FASSET model. The model satisfactorily predicted yield and soil carbon development in four treatments: no fertiliser, mineral fertiliser, farmyard manure and farmyard manure plus...... was the use of new crop varieties and/or pesticides, while the increase in atmospheris CO2 and changes in local N deposition were of lesser importance. The rise in CO2 thus only explained 9-37% of the yield increase. The observed and simulated developments in soil carbon were quite different in the four...

  17. Reconstructing the long-term cosmic ray intensity: linear relations do not work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Mursula

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available It was recently suggested (Lockwood, 2001 that the cosmic ray intensity in the neutron monitor energy range is linearly related to the coronal source flux, and can be reconstructed for the last 130 years using the long-term coronal flux estimated earlier. Moreover, Lockwood (2001 reconstructed the coronal flux for the last 500 years using a similar linear relation between the flux and the concentration of cosmogenic 10 Be isotopes in polar ice. Here we show that the applied linear relations are oversimplified and lead to unphysical results on long time scales. In particular, the cosmic ray intensity reconstructed by Lockwood (2001 for the last 130 years has a steep trend which is considerably larger than the trend estimated from observations during the last 65 years. Accordingly, the reconstructed cosmic ray intensity reaches or even exceeds the local interstellar cosmic ray flux around 1900. We argue that these unphysical results obtained when using linear relations are due to the oversimplified approach which does not take into account the complex and essentially nonlinear nature of long-term cosmic ray modulation in the heliosphere. We also compare the long-term cosmic ray intensity based on a linear treatment with the reconstruction based on a recent physical model which predicts a considerably lower cosmic ray intensity around 1900.Key words. Interplanetary physics (cosmic rays; heliopause and solar wind termination – Geomagnetism and paleomagnetism (time variations, secular and long-term

  18. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    45 years helping in developing countries! CERN personnel have been helping the least fortunate people on the planet since 1971. How? With the Long-Term Collections! Dear Colleagues, The Staff Association’s Long-Term Collections (LTC) Committee is delighted to share this important milestone in the life of our Laboratory with you. Indeed, whilst the name of CERN is known worldwide for scientific discoveries, it also shines in the many humanitarian projects which have been supported by the LTC since 1971. Several schools and clinics, far and wide, carry its logo... Over the past 45 years, 74 projects have been supported (9 of which are still ongoing). This all came from a group of colleagues who wanted to share a little of what life offered them here at CERN, in this haven of mutual understanding, peace and security, with those who were less fortunate elsewhere. Thus, the LTC were born... Since then, we have worked as a team to maintain the dream of these visionaries, with the help of regular donat...

  19. Long-Term Collection

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    Dear Colleagues, As previously announced in Echo (No. 254), your delegates took action to draw attention to the projects of the Long-Term Collections (LTC), the humanitarian body of the CERN Staff Association. On Tuesday, 11 October, at noon, small Z-Cards were widely distributed at the entrances of CERN restaurants and we thank you all for your interest. We hope to have achieved an important part of our goal, which was to inform you, convince you and find new supporters among you. We will find out in the next few days! An exhibition of the LTC was also set up in the Main Building for the entire week. The Staff Association wants to celebrate the occasion of the Long-Term Collection’s 45th anniversary at CERN because, ever since 1971, CERN personnel have showed great support in helping the least fortunate people on the planet in a variety of ways according to their needs. On a regular basis, joint fundraising appeals are made with the Directorate to help the victims of natural disasters around th...

  20. Collectes à long terme

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2014-01-01

    En cette fin d’année 2014 qui approche à grands pas, le Comité des Collectes à Long Terme remercie chaleureusement ses fidèles donatrices et donateurs réguliers pour leurs contributions à nos actions en faveur des plus démunis de notre planète. C’est très important, pour notre Comité, de pouvoir compter sur l’appui assidu que vous nous apportez. Depuis plus de 40 ans maintenant, le modèle des CLT est basé principalement sur des actions à long terme (soit une aide pendant 4-5 ans par projet, mais plus parfois selon les circonstances), et sa planification demande une grande régularité de ses soutiens financiers. Grand MERCI à vous ! D’autres dons nous parviennent au cours de l’année, et ils sont aussi les bienvenus. En particulier, nous tenons à remercier...

  1. Secular Trends in Age at Menarche, Smoking, and Oral Contraceptive Use Among Israeli Girls

    OpenAIRE

    Chodick, Gabriel; Rademaker, Alfred; Huerta, Michael; Balicer, Ran D; Davidovitch, Nadav; Grotto, Itamar

    2005-01-01

    Introduction The improved nutrition and socioeconomic status of the population in industrialized countries has resulted in a decrease in the mean age at menarche. This trend raises the question of whether cigarette smoking and the use of oral contraceptives, health behaviors often adopted during adolescence, may also be starting at a younger age. Cigarette smoking and use of oral contraceptives are a public health concern because they pose an increased risk for development of chronic diseases...

  2. Secular Trends in Age at Menarche, Smoking, and Oral Contraceptive Use Among Israeli Girls

    OpenAIRE

    Ran D. Balicer, MD; Nadav Davidovitch, MD, MPH; Itamar Grotto, MD, MPH; Michael Huerta, MD, MPH; Gabriel Chodick, PhD, MHA

    2005-01-01

    Introduction The improved nutrition and socioeconomic status of the population in industrialized countries has resulted in a decrease in the mean age at menarche. This trend raises the question of whether cigarette smoking and the use of oral contraceptives, health behaviors often adopted during adolescence, may also be starting at a younger age. Cigarette smoking and use of oral contraceptives are a public health concern because they pose an increased risk for development of chronic disease...

  3. Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mette; Krølner, Rikke; Svastisalee, Chalida Mae

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have.......0001). In all age and gender groups, a significant increase in intake occurred between 2002 and 2006 (all p-values

  4. Simulation of long-term dynamic behavior of runaway electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yulei; Liu Jian; Zhang Ruili; He Yang

    2015-01-01

    The secular dynamics of runaway electrons in Tokamak electromagnetic field is studied. The radiation effect is added into a relativistic volume-preserving algorithm to gain long-term stability of calculation. The results shows that the method we used is able to reveal the behavior of a runaway electron in configuration space. (author)

  5. Recent development of methods of long-term planning in the power economy of the GDR and trends of their future application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bathe, J.; Hedrich, P.

    1980-01-01

    Due to the rapid development of the power economy, the procedures of long-term planning and the necessary methods, calculation techniques and models need permanent scientific treatment. The prerequisites for the development and utilization of mathematical methods in long- and medium-term planning of power economy are characterized. The steps of development up to the establishment and utilization of a central optimization model that can be coupled and interlaced with the complex of optimization algorithms in partial fields of power economy are presented. Problems of further improvement and more effective utilization of mathematical means of planning are discussed, considering the growing interlacing of power economy decisions with those in other branches and fields of national economy. Hence, requirements of enhanced optimization of the power economy development in enlarged balance pools and for longer periods are derived. (author)

  6. Seasonal latitudinal and secular variations in temperature trend - evidence for influence of anthropogenic sulfate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, D E; Schwartz, S E; Wagener, R; Benkovitz, C M [University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institute of Oceanography

    1993-11-19

    Tropospheric aerosols increase the shortwave reflectivity of the Earth-atmosphere system both by scattering light directly, in the absence of clouds, and by enhancing cloud reflectivity. The radiative forcing of climate exerted by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, derived mainly from SO[sub 2] emitted from fossil fuel combustion, is opposite that due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and is estimated to be of comparable average magnitude in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. However, persuasive evidence of climate response to this forcing has thus far been lacking. Here we examine patterns of seasonal and latitudinal variations in temperature anomaly trend for evidence of such a response. Pronounced minima in the rate of temperature increase in summer months in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are consistent with the latitudinal distribution of anthropogenic sulfate and changes in the rate of SO[sub 2] emissions over the industrial era.

  7. Secular trends in age at menarche among Chinese girls from 24 ethnic minorities, 1985 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yi; Ma, Jun; Agardh, Anette; Lau, Patrick W C; Hu, Peijin; Zhang, Bing

    2015-01-01

    Declining age at menarche has been observed in many countries. In China, a decrease of 4.5 months per decade in the average age at menarche among the majority Han girls has recently been reported. However, the trends in age at menarche among ethnic minority girls over the past 25 years remain unknown. To compare the differences in median age at menarche among girls aged 9-18 years across 24 ethnic minorities in 2010 and to estimate the trends in age at menarche in different ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010. We used data from six cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health (1985, 1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010). The median age at menarche was estimated by using probit analysis. In 2010, the ethnic minorities with the earliest age at menarche were the Koreans (11.79 years), Mongolians (12.44 years), and Zhuang (12.52 years). The three ethnic minorities with the latest age at menarche were the Sala (14.32 years), Yi (13.74 years), and Uighurs (13.67 years). From 1985 to 2010, the age at menarche declined in all 24 minority groups. The Lisu, Kazakh, and Korean minorities showed the largest reductions in age at menarche by 1.79 (pminorities showed the smallest reductions, with age at menarche declining by only 0.06 (p>0.05), 0.15 (p>0.05), and 0.15 (p>0.05) years, respectively, in the same period. A large variation in age at menarche was observed among different ethnic minorities, with the earliest age at menarche found among Korean girls. A reduction in the average age at menarche appeared among most of the ethnic minorities over time, and the largest decrease was observed in Lisu, Kazakh, and Korean girls. Thus, health education should focus on targeting the specific needs of each ethnic minority group.

  8. Long-Term Trends Accentuate the Import of Creative and Critical Thinking Skills Developed by Design Thinking and Ill-Defined Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Robert A.; Maatman, Janice

    2017-01-01

    The economic, financial, and political trends such as stagnating standards of living, fiscal pressure, and an escalating mistrust of government were set in motion during the 1960s and 1970s. Due to the duration of the trends, the magnitude, but not the nature, of the challenges confronting the health care, nonprofit and public sectors has changed.…

  9. Mild-moderate congenital hearing loss: secular trends in outcomes across four systems of detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carew, P; Mensah, F K; Rance, G; Flynn, T; Poulakis, Z; Wake, M

    2018-01-01

    Universal newborn hearing screening (UNHS) targets moderate or greater hearing loss. However, UNHS also frequently detects children with mild loss that results in many receiving early treatment. The benefits of this approach are not yet established. We aimed to (i) compare language and psychosocial outcomes between four hearing loss detection systems for children aged 5-8 years with congenital mild-moderate hearing loss; (ii) determine whether age of detection predicts outcomes; and (iii) compare outcomes between children identified via well-established UNHS and the general population. Linear regression adjusted for potential confounding factors was used throughout. Via a quasi-experimental design, language and psychosocial outcomes were compared across four population-based Australian systems of hearing loss detection: opportunistic detection, born 1991-1993, n = 50; universal risk factor referral, born 2003-2005, n = 34; newly established UNHS, born 2003-2005, n = 41; and well-established UNHS, born 2007-2010, n = 21. In pooled analyses, we examined whether age of detection predicted outcomes. Outcomes were similarly compared between the current well-established UNHS system and typically developing children in the Early Language in Victoria Study, born 2003, n = 1217. Age at diagnosis and hearing aid fitting fell steadily across the four systems. For moderate losses, mean expressive language (P for trend .05) and receptive vocabulary (P for trend .06) improved across the four systems, but benefit was not obvious for mild losses. In pooled analyses, diagnosis before age six months predicted better language outcomes for moderate losses. Children with mild-moderate losses exposed to well-established UNHS continue to experience expressive language scores well below children in the general population (adjusted mean difference -8.9 points, 95% CI -14.7 to -3.1). Treatment arising from UNHS appears to be clearly benefitting children with moderate hearing

  10. Secular trends in reported portion size of food and beverages consumed by Irish adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Sinead A; Livingstone, M Barbara E; McNulty, Breige A; Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert; Segurado, Ricardo; Dean, Moira; Spence, Michelle; McCaffrey, Tracy A; Pourshahidi, L Kirsty; Nugent, Anne P; Gibney, Eileen R

    2015-04-14

    The present analysis aimed to investigate the changes in the reported portion sizes (PS) of foods and beverages commonly consumed by Irish adults (18-64 years) from the North South Ireland Food Consumption Survey (NSIFCS) (1997-2001) and the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (2008-10). Food PS, which are defined as the weight of food (g) consumed per eating occasion, were calculated for comparable foods and beverages in two nationally representative cross-sectional Irish food consumption surveys and were published in NSIFCS and NANS. Repeated measure mixed model analysis compared reported food PS at the total population level as well as subdivided by sex, age, BMI and social class. A total of thirteen commonly consumed foods were examined. The analysis demonstrated that PS significantly increased for five foods ('white sliced bread', 'brown/wholemeal breads', 'all meat, cooked', 'poultry, roasted' and 'milk'), significantly decreased for three ('potatoes', 'chips/wedges' and 'ham, sliced') and did not significantly change for five foods ('processed potato products', 'bacon/ham', 'cheese', 'yogurt' and 'butter/spreads') between the NSIFCS and the NANS. The present study demonstrates that there was considerable variation in the trends in reported food PS over this period.

  11. Secular trends of obesity prevalence in Chinese children from 1985 to 2010: Urban-rural disparity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yi; Ma, Jun; Wang, Hai-Jun; Wang, Zhiqiang; Hu, Peijin; Zhang, Bing; Agard, Anette

    2015-02-01

    To examine the trend of urban-rural disparity in obesity prevalence among Chinese children from 1985 to 2010. The data were from five cross-sectional surveys (1985, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010) of Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health. Logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence odds ratio (POR) of urban-rural areas for obesity prevalence in different surveys. The standardized prevalence of obesity in Chinese children increased rapidly from 0.1% in 1985 to 5.0% in 2010, and significant differences were found between two adjacent surveys in most of the age subgroups (Pobesity prevalence was significantly higher in urban than in rural children of all age subgroups at different survey points, the changing pace was faster in rural than in urban areas from 1995 to 2010. The PORs had increased in 1995 in most age subgroups and then began to decline in all age subgroups after 1995. The gradually decreasing urban-rural disparity suggests that the obesity prevalence in rural areas would contribute to a growing proportion of obese children. Therefore, rural children should be included in obesity prevention efforts even though obesity rates are still lower in rural than in urban areas. © 2014 The Obesity Society.

  12. Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian S.; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. PMID:29364953

  13. Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counihan, Timothy D.; Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers.

  14. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  15. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  16. LONG TERM COLLECTIONS

    CERN Multimedia

    STAFF ASSOCIATION

    2010-01-01

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Long-Term Collections (CLT) committee would like to warmly thank its faithful donors who, year after year, support our actions all over the world. Without you, all this would not be possible. We would like to thank, in particular, the CERN Firemen’s Association who donated 5000 CHF in the spring thanks to the sale of their traditional calendar, and the generosity of the CERN community. A huge thank you to the firemen for their devotion to our cause. And thank you to all those who have opened their door, their heart, and their purses! Similarly, we warmly thank the CERN Yoga Club once again for its wonderful donation of 2000 CHF we recently received. We would also like to tell you that all our projects are running well. Just to remind you, we are currently supporting the activities of the «Réflexe-Partage» Association in Mali; the training centre of «Education et Développement» in Abomey, Benin; and the orphanage and ...

  17. Data for Figures and Tables in Journal Article Assessment of the Effects of Horizontal Grid Resolution on Long-Term Air Quality Trends using Coupled WRF-CMAQ Simulations, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.02.036

    Science.gov (United States)

    The dataset represents the data depicted in the Figures and Tables of a Journal Manuscript with the following abstract: The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental United State are performed over the 2001 to 2010 time period at two different horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. Both simulations used the same emission inventory and model configurations. Model results are compared both in space and time to assess the potential weaknesses and strengths of using coarse resolution in long-term air quality applications. The results show that the 36 km and 12 km simulations are comparable in terms of trends analysis for both pollutant concentrations and radiation variables. The advantage of using the coarser 36 km resolution is a significant reduction of computational cost, time and storage requirement which are key considerations when performing multiple years of simulations for trend analysis. However, if such simulations are to be used for local air quality analysis, finer horizontal resolution may be beneficial since it can provide information on local gradients. In particular, divergences between the two simulations are noticeable in urban, complex terrain and coastal regions.This dataset is associated with the following publication

  18. Secular trends and factors associated with overweight among Brazilian preschool children: PNSN-1989, PNDS-1996, and 2006/07.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silveira, Jonas Augusto C; Colugnati, Fernando Antônio B; Cocetti, Monize; Taddei, José Augusto A C

    2014-01-01

    to describe the secular trends in overweight among preschool children in the years 1989, 1996, and 2006, and to identify risk factors associated with this condition in 2006. anthropometric data from three surveys (1989, 1996, and 2006) with a representative sample of the population were analyzed. Overweight was defined as the weight-for-height Z-score. The multivariable models of overweight association with risk factors were generated by Poisson regression, and the estimates were shown as prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals (PR [95% CI]). throughout the 17-year period studied, the relative prevalence of overweight in preschoolers increased by 160% in Brazil, representing an increase of 9.4% per year. Based on data from the National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children - 2006/07, four multivariable models were created (macro-environmental, maternal, individual, and final model) assuming hierarchy among the risk factors. In the final model, only the following remained associated with overweight: regions South/Southeast (1.55 [1.17 to 2.06]), middle-class (1.35 [1.02 to 1.77]), maternal obesity (1.66 [1.22 to 2.27]), birth weight ≥ 3.9kg (1.87 [1.31 to 2.67]), and being an only child or having only one sibling (1.81 [1.31 to 2.49]). the prevalence of overweight among preschool children in Brazil has increased dramatically over the past 17 years, and it was higher in the 1996-2006 period. Future strategies for prevention and control of overweight in public health should focus or intensify actions in communities that are characterized by the presence of the risks identified in the present study. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  19. Secular Trends in the Physical Fitness of United States Army Recruits on Entry to Service, 1975-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapik, Joseph J; Sharp, Marilyn A; Steelman, Ryan A

    2017-07-01

    Knapik, JJ, Sharp, MA, and Steelman, RA. Secular trends in the physical fitness of United States Army recruits on entry to service, 1975-2013. J Strength Cond Res 31(7): 2030-2052, 2017-A systematic literature search was conducted to identify and analyze articles that reported on physical fitness of new US Army recruits. The National Library of Medicine's PubMed and the Defense Technical Information Center were searched using the keywords (military personnel OR trainee OR recruit OR soldier) AND (physical fitness OR strength OR endurance OR flexibility OR balance OR coordination OR muscle contraction OR running OR exercise OR physical conditioning). Reference lists of obtained articles and contact with authors enhanced the search. Studies were selected if they involved recruits in Basic Combat Training or One-Station Unit Training, provided a quantitative assessment of at least one fitness measure, and the fitness measure(s) were obtained early in training. Average values for each fitness measure were obtained, plotted by the year of data collection, and fitted to linear regression models (fitness measure × year). Fifty-three articles met the review criteria. Regression analysis indicated little temporal change in height, but body weight, body mass index, body fat, and fat-free mass increased over time. Limited V[Combining Dot Above]O2max data suggested no temporal change in male recruits, but those in female recruits V[Combining Dot Above]O2max seem to have slightly improved. Apparently contradicting the V[Combining Dot Above]O2max findings, performance on endurance runs (1- and 2-mile) declined, possibly because of the increase in body weight. Muscular endurance (push-ups, sit-ups) demonstrated little systematic change over time. Limited but multiple measures of muscular strength suggest a temporal increase in strength. Specific components of US Army recruit fitness seem to have changed over time.

  20. Contribution of mortality and disability to the secular trend in health inequality at the turn of century in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Oyen, Herman; Charafeddine, Rana; Deboosere, Patrick; Cox, Bianca; Lorant, Vincent; Nusselder, Wilma; Demarest, Stefaan

    2011-12-01

    There is evidence that health inequalities by socio-economic status have persisted. We examined whether educational differences in Disability-Free Life Expectancy (DFLE) and Disability Life Expectancy (DLE) at age 25 has narrowed or widened between the 1990s and 2000s in Belgium. The contribution of mortality and disability prevalence to the secular trend is investigated. We used disability data from the 1997 and 2004 Belgian Health Interviews Surveys and mortality data from the 3-years follow-up of the 1991 and 2001 census population to assess education-related disparities in DFLE and DLE and to partition these differences into additive contributions of mortality and disability. Compared to the highest educated population, differences in the prevalence of disability accounted for at least 66% of the inequality in DFLE. In the latest period, the differences in DFLE compared to men with tertiary education was 4.8, 6.6, 9.7 and 18.6 years for men with, respectively higher secondary, lower secondary, primary and no education. Among females, inequalities in DFLE were, respectively 5.8, 5.1, 10.8 and 18.2 years. There was no evidence that the educational differences in DFLE narrowed since the 1990s. Compared to people with the highest educational attainment, the inequalities in DFLE increased over time for all educational groups except for men with primary education. The social divide in health increased over time: people with the highest education continued to live even longer, they continued to live even longer without disability and to live less years with disability.

  1. Secular trends and factors associated with overweight among Brazilian preschool children: PNSN-1989, PNDS-1996, and 2006/07

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Augusto C. Silveira

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to describe the secular trends in overweight among preschool children in the years 1989, 1996, and 2006, and to identify risk factors associated with this condition in 2006. METHODS: anthropometric data from three surveys (1989, 1996, and 2006 with a representative sample of the population were analyzed. Overweight was defined as the weight-for-height Z-score. The multivariable models of overweight association with risk factors were generated by Poisson regression, and the estimates were shown as prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals (PR [95% CI]. RESULTS: throughout the 17-year period studied, the relative prevalence of overweight in preschoolers increased by 160% in Brazil, representing an increase of 9.4% per year. Based on data from the National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children - 2006/07, four multivariable models were created (macro-environmental, maternal, individual, and final model assuming hierarchy among the risk factors. In the final model, only the following remained associated with overweight: regions South/Southeast (1.55 [1.17 to 2.06], middle-class (1.35 [1.02 to 1.77], maternal obesity (1.66 [1.22 to 2.27], birth weight > 3.9 kg (1.87 [1.31 to 2.67], and being an only child or having only one sibling (1.81 [1.31 to 2.49]. CONCLUSION: the prevalence of overweight among preschool children in Brazil has increased dramatically over the past 17 years, and it was higher in the 1996-2006 period. Future strategies for prevention and control of overweight in public health should focus or intensify actions in communities that are characterized by the presence of the risks identified in the present study.

  2. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  3. Cohorts based on decade of death: no evidence for secular trends favoring later cohorts in cognitive aging and terminal decline in the AHEAD study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hülür, Gizem; Infurna, Frank J; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

    2013-03-01

    Studies of birth-year cohorts examined over the same age range often report secular trends favoring later-born cohorts, who are cognitively fitter and show less steep cognitive declines than earlier-born cohorts. However, there is initial evidence that those advantages of later-born cohorts do not carry into the last years of life, suggesting that pervasive mortality-related processes minimize differences that were apparent earlier in life. Elaborating this work from an alternative perspective on cohort differences, we compared rates of cognitive aging and terminal decline in episodic memory between cohorts based on the year participants had died, earlier (between 1993 and 1999) or later in historical time (between 2000 and 2010). Specifically, we compared trajectories of cognitive decline in 2 death-year cohorts of participants in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old study that were matched on age at death and education and controlled for a variety of additional covariates. Results revealed little evidence of secular trends favoring later cohorts. To the contrary, the cohort that died in the 2000s showed a less favorable trajectory of age-related memory decline than the cohort that died in the 1990s. In examinations of change in relation to time to death, the cohort dying in the 2000s experienced even steeper terminal declines than the cohort dying in the 1990s. We suggest that secular increases in "manufacturing" survival may exacerbate age- and mortality-related cognitive declines among the oldest old.

  4. Understanding long-term (1982-2013) patterns and trends in winter wheat spring green-up date over the North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sisi; Mo, Xingguo; Liu, Zhengjia; Baig, Muhammad Hasan Ali; Chi, Wenfeng

    2017-05-01

    Monitoring the spring green-up date (GUD) has grown in importance for crop management and food security. However, most satellite-based GUD models are associated with a high degree of uncertainty when applied to croplands. In this study, we introduced an improved GUD algorithm to extract GUD data for 32 years (1982-2013) for the winter wheat croplands on the North China Plain (NCP), using the third-generation normalized difference vegetation index form Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g NDVI). The spatial and temporal variations in GUD with the effects of the pre-season climate and soil moisture conditions on GUD were comprehensively investigated. Our results showed that a higher correlation coefficient (r = 0.44, p the improved algorithm relative to GUD from the MCD12Q2 phenology product. In spatial terms, GUD increased from the southwest (less than day of year (DOY) 60) to the northeast (more than DOY 90) of the NCP, which corresponded to spatial reductions in temperature and precipitation. GUD advanced in most (78%) of the winter wheat area on the NCP, with significant advances in 37.8% of the area (p the interannual scale, the average GUD advanced from DOY 76.9 in the 1980s (average 1982-1989) to DOY 73.2 in the 1990s (average 1991-1999), and to DOY 70.3 after 2000 (average 2000-2013), indicating an average advance of 1.8 days/decade (r = 0.35, p the pre-season temperature, our findings underline that the effect of the pre-season soil moisture on GUD should also be considered. The improved GUD algorithm and satellite-based long-term GUD data are helpful for improving the representation of GUD in terrestrial ecosystem models and enhancing crop management efficiency.

  5. The long-term trends (1982-2006) in vegetation greenness of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Wang, Cuizhen; Ji, Lei; Li, Jing; Wang, Kun; Dai, Lin

    2014-01-01

    The increased rate of annual temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau exceeded all other areas of the same latitude in recent decades. The influence of the warming climate on the alpine ecosystem of the plateau was distinct. An analysis of alpine vegetation under changes in climatic conditions was conducted in this study. This was done through an examination of vegetation greenness and its relationship with climate variability using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite imagery and climate datasets. Vegetation in the plateau experienced a positive trend in greenness, with 18.0 % of the vegetated areas exhibiting significantly positive trends, which were primarily located in the eastern and southwestern parts of the plateau. In grasslands, 25.8 % of meadows and 14.1 % of steppes exhibited significant upward trends. In contrast, the broadleaf forests experienced a trend of degradation. Temperature, particularly summer temperature, was the primary factor promoting the vegetation growth in the plateau. The wetter and warmer climate in the east contributed to the favorable conditions for vegetation. The alpine meadow was mostly sensitive to temperature, while the steppes were sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to vegetation growth in the alpine region, the rising temperature coupled with reduced precipitation in the south did not favor vegetation growth due to low humidity and poor soil moisture conditions.

  6. Long-term trends of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for the major cities of South Korea and their implications on human health

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Choi, B. C.; Kim, J.; Lee, D. G.; Kyselý, Jan

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 2 (2007), s. 171-183 ISSN N R&D Projects: GA ČR GC205/07/J044 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Temperature trends * Biometeorology * Climate change * Global warming * Human health * Temperature extremes * Urbanization Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  7. RepoTREND. The program package for the integrated long term safety analysis of final repository systems. Version 4.5 (State March 2016); RepoTREND. Das Programmpaket zur integrierten Langzeitsicherheitsanalyse von Endlagersystemen. Version 4.5 (Stand Maerz 2016)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiche, Tatiana

    2016-04-15

    The long-term safety analysis is the analysis of final repository behavior after closure includes the spreading of pollutants into the biosphere (mobilization and release of pollutants into the near field, radionuclide migration through the geosphere, radiation exposure in the biosphere) and the radiological consequences. The report describes the program package RepoTREND, the respective modules (near field, GeoTREND, BioTREND and probabilistic analyses), sequencing and postprocessing and the quality management.

  8. Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2015-03-28

    Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pinfective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pinfective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions

  9. The Drivers of the CH4 Seasonal Cycle in the Arctic and What Long-Term Observations of CH4 Imply About Trends in Arctic CH4 Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweeney, C.; Karion, A.; Bruhwiler, L.; Miller, J. B.; Wofsy, S. C.; Miller, C. E.; Chang, R. Y.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Daube, B.; Pittman, J. V.; Dinardo, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    The large seasonal change in the atmospheric column for CH4 in the Arctic is driven by two dominant processes: transport of CH4 from low latitudes and surface emissions throughout the Arctic region. The NOAA ESRL Carbon Cycle Group Aircraft Program along with the NASA funded Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) have initiated an effort to better understand the factors controlling the seasonal changes in the mole fraction of CH4 in the Arctic with a multi-scale aircraft observing network in Alaska. The backbone of this network is multi-species flask sampling from 500 to 8000 masl that has been conducted every two weeks for the last 10 years over Poker Flat, AK. In addition regular profiles at the interior Alaska site at Poker Flat, NOAA has teamed up with the United States Coast Guard to make profiling flights with continuous observations of CO2, CO, CH4 and Ozone between Kodiak and Barrow every 2 weeks. More recently, CARVE has significantly added to this observational network with targeted flights focused on exploring the variability of CO2, CH4 and CO in the boundary layer both in the interior and the North Slope regions of Alaska. Taken together with the profiling of HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO), ground sites at Barrow and a new CARVE interior Alaska surface site just north of Fairbanks, AK, we now have the ability to investigate the full evolution of the seasonal cycle in the Arctic using both the multi-scale sampling offered by the different aircraft platforms as well as the multi-species sampling offered by in-situ and flask sampling. The flasks also provide a valuable tie-point between different platforms so that spatial and temporal gradients can be properly interpreted. In the context of the seasonal cycle observed by the aircraft platforms we will look at long term ground observations over the last 20 years to assess changes in Arctic CH4 emissions which have occurred as a result of 0.6C/decade changes in mean surface

  10. Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1993-03-01

    A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

  11. Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Sidharth

    2014-01-01

    Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

  12. Accessibility Long Term Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kay Axhausen

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved accessibility and its correlate lower generalized cost of contact, travel and transport have been sought by dynamic human societies for their economic and social benefits through- out recorded history. The paper will reflect about this process at a number of different spatial and temporal scales based on a conceptual model. Looking back at European history, it will trace the interaction between Christaller's logic of local market areas and the idea of (low contact cost network cities. Focusing on Switzerland since 1950 it will show how network investment changed the relative distribution of population and employment and how this interacted with changes in the preferences of the travelers. Using a recent snapshot of how a substantial sample of Swiss maintain their social networks over often very large areas, it will try to answer the question of what will happen in the future, if the current trend of ever lower costs of contact will persist.

  13. Secular trends of salted fish consumption and nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a multi-jurisdiction ecological study in 8 regions from 3 continents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lau, Hiu-Ying; Leung, Chit-Ming; Chan, Yap-Hang; Lee, Anne Wing-Mui; Kwong, Dora Lai-Wan; Lung, Maria Li; Lam, Tai-Hing

    2013-01-01

    Despite salted fish being a classical risk factor of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC), whether secular trends in salted fish consumption worldwide accounted for changes in NPC rates were unknown. The relationship between vegetable and cigarette consumption to NPC risk worldwide were also largely uncertain. We investigated the longitudinal trends in standardised NPC incidence/mortality rates across 8 regions and their associations with secular trends in salted fish, vegetable and tobacco consumptions. Age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC were obtained from the WHO cancer mortality database and Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Per capita consumption of salted fish, tobacco and vegetables in Hong Kong and 7 countries (China, Finland, Japan, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States) were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO) and Hong Kong Trade and Census Statistics. Pearson correlation and multivariate analysis were performed to examine both crude and adjusted associations. There were markedly decreasing trends of NPC ASIR and ASMR in Hong Kong over the past three decades, which were correlated with corresponding secular changes in salted fish consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years : ASIR = 0.729 (male), 0.674 (female); ASMR = 0.943 (male), 0.622 (female), all p < 0.05 except for female ASMR). However such associations no longer correlated with adjustments for decreasing tobacco and increasing vegetable consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years: ASIR = 2.007 (male), 0.339 (female), ASMR = 0.289 (male), 1.992 (female), all p > 0.05). However, there were no clear or consistent patterns in relations between NPC ASIR and ASMR with salted fish consumption across 7 regions in 3 continents. Our results do not support the notion that changes in salted fish consumption had played an important role in explaining secular trends of NPC rates in Hong

  14. Secular trends of salted fish consumption and nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a multi-jurisdiction ecological study in 8 regions from 3 continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Hiu-Ying; Leung, Chit-Ming; Chan, Yap-Hang; Lee, Anne Wing-Mui; Kwong, Dora Lai-Wan; Lung, Maria Li; Lam, Tai-Hing

    2013-06-19

    Despite salted fish being a classical risk factor of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC), whether secular trends in salted fish consumption worldwide accounted for changes in NPC rates were unknown. The relationship between vegetable and cigarette consumption to NPC risk worldwide were also largely uncertain. We investigated the longitudinal trends in standardised NPC incidence/mortality rates across 8 regions and their associations with secular trends in salted fish, vegetable and tobacco consumptions. Age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC were obtained from the WHO cancer mortality database and Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Per capita consumption of salted fish, tobacco and vegetables in Hong Kong and 7 countries (China, Finland, Japan, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States) were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO) and Hong Kong Trade and Census Statistics. Pearson correlation and multivariate analysis were performed to examine both crude and adjusted associations. There were markedly decreasing trends of NPC ASIR and ASMR in Hong Kong over the past three decades, which were correlated with corresponding secular changes in salted fish consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years : ASIR = 0.729 (male), 0.674 (female); ASMR = 0.943 (male), 0.622 (female), all p ASMR). However such associations no longer correlated with adjustments for decreasing tobacco and increasing vegetable consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years: ASIR = 2.007 (male), 0.339 (female), ASMR = 0.289 (male), 1.992 (female), all p > 0.05). However, there were no clear or consistent patterns in relations between NPC ASIR and ASMR with salted fish consumption across 7 regions in 3 continents. Our results do not support the notion that changes in salted fish consumption had played an important role in explaining secular trends of NPC rates in Hong

  15. Long-term trend analysis of reservoir water quality and quantity at the landscape scale in two major river basins of Texas, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patino, Reynaldo; Asquith, William H.; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.; Dawson, D.

    2016-01-01

    Trends in water quality and quantity were assessed for 11 major reservoirs of the Brazos and Colorado river basins in the southern Great Plains (maximum period of record, 1965–2010). Water quality, major contributing-stream inflow, storage, local precipitation, and basin-wide total water withdrawals were analyzed. Inflow and storage decreased and total phosphorus increased in most reservoirs. The overall, warmest-, or coldest-monthly temperatures increased in 7 reservoirs, decreased in 1 reservoir, and did not significantly change in 3 reservoirs. The most common monotonic trend in salinity-related variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate) was one of no change, and when significant change occurred, it was inconsistent among reservoirs. No significant change was detected in monthly sums of local precipitation. Annual water withdrawals increased in both basins, but the increase was significant (P < 0.05) only in the Colorado River and marginally significant (P < 0.1) in the Brazos River. Salinity-related variables dominated spatial variability in water quality data due to the presence of high- and low-salinity reservoirs in both basins. These observations present a landscape in the Brazos and Colorado river basins where, in the last ∼40 years, reservoir inflow and storage generally decreased, eutrophication generally increased, and water temperature generally increased in at least 1 of 3 temperature indicators evaluated. Because local precipitation remained generally stable, observed reductions in reservoir inflow and storage during the study period may be attributable to other proximate factors, including increased water withdrawals (at least in the Colorado River basin) or decreased runoff from contributing watersheds.

  16. Climate, Tree Growth, Forest Drought Stress, and Tree Mortality in Forests of Western North America: Long-Term Patterns and Recent Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.; Williams, P.

    2012-12-01

    Ongoing climate changes are increasingly affecting the world's forests, particularly including high latitude and high elevation coniferous forests. Although forest growth has improved in some regions due to greater growing season length and warmth (perhaps along with increased atmospheric CO2 or N), large growth declines or increased mortality from droughts or hotter temperatures also are being observed. We present and interpret information on regional variation in climate-tree growth relationships and trends, and on patterns and trends of climate-related forest disturbances, from western North America. From 235 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we show that tree-ring growth records from warmer southwestern sites are more sensitive to temperature than tree-ring growth records from cooler southwestern sites. Assessment of 59 tree-ring records from 11 species in the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest shows that trees growing in cool places respond positively to increased temperature and trees in warm places respond negatively, implying that trees historically not sensitive to temperature may become sensitive as mean temperatures warm. An analysis of 59 white spruce populations in Alaska supports the hypothesis that warming has caused tree growth to lose sensitivity to cold temperatures. Comparing ring widths to temperature during just the coldest 50% of years during the 20th century, tree growth was sensitive to cold temperatures, and this effect was strongest at the coldest sites; whereas during the warmest 50% of years, trees were not at all sensitive to cold temperatures, even at the cold sites. Drought and vapor pressure deficit are among the variables that emerge as being increasingly important to these Alaska boreal forests as mean temperatures rise. Most recently, from 346 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we establish a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the three most widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis

  17. Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Deushi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A middle-atmosphere simulation of the past 25 years (from 1980 to 2004 has been performed with a chemistry-climate model (CCM of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI under observed forcings of sea-surface temperature, greenhouse gases, halogens, volcanic aerosols, and solar irradiance variations. The dynamics module of MRI-CCM is a spectral global model truncated triangularly at a maximum wavenumber of 42 with 68 layers extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (about 80 km, wherein the vertical spacing is 500 m from 100 to 10 hPa. The chemistry-transport module treats 51 species with 124 reactions including heterogeneous reactions. Transport of chemical species is based on a hybrid semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is a flux form in the vertical direction and an ordinary semi-Lagrangian form in the horizontal direction. The MRI-CCM used in this study reproduced a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO of about a 20-month period for wind and ozone in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple linear regression analysis with time lags for volcanic aerosols was performed on the zonal-mean quantities of the simulated result to separate the trend, the QBO, the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, the 11-year solar cycle, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO signals. It is found that MRI-CCM can more or less realistically reproduce observed trends of annual mean temperature and ozone, and those of total ozone in each month. MRI-CCM also reproduced the vertical multi-cell structures of tropical temperature, zonal-wind, and ozone associated with the QBO, and the mid-latitude total ozone QBO in each winter hemisphere. Solar irradiance variations of the 11-year cycle were found to affect radiation alone (not photodissociation because of an error in making the photolysis lookup table. Nevertheless, though the heights of the maximum temperature (ozone in the tropics are much higher (lower than observations, MRI-CCM could reproduce the second maxima of temperature and

  18. World's trend of national nuclear power policy and long-term perspective of nuclear power and supply and demand of uranium fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuji; Nishida, Naoki; Yamaguchi, Yuji; Shimogoori, Kei; Murakami, Tomoko

    2013-01-01

    Based on perspective of nuclear power reflecting latest trend of national nuclear policy, supply and demand of uranium resources until 2035 was evaluated based on latest data. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, Germany and Italy dramatically changed nuclear power to phase out, while United States, Russia, France and Korea as well as China and India continued to promote nuclear power with no essential change of policy. Thus world's nuclear power capacity was foreseen to expand from 389 GW (2010) to 471 GW (2035, low growth case) and 760 GW (2035, high growth case). Following sharp increase of uranium cost after 2005, investment on natural uranium development became active and new operation start of uranium enrichment plants was anticipated in US and Europe, and then both supply and demand of natural uranium and uranium enrichment service would tend to relax until around 2020 and until 2035 extreme tightness of supply and demand might not occur even for high growth case. Uranium demand of Asian region including China and India would be largely expanded with natural uranium from Africa and Australia and uranium enrichment services from US, and Asian high overseas dependence would be continued. (T. Tanaka)

  19. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  20. Long-term trend analysis and climatology of tropical cirrus clouds using 16 years of lidar data set over Southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandit, A. K.; Gadhavi, H. S.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Raghunath, K.; Rao, S. V. B.; Jayaraman, A.

    2015-12-01

    Sixteen-year (1998-2013) climatology of cirrus clouds and their macrophysical (base height, top height and geometrical thickness) and optical properties (cloud optical thickness) observed using a ground-based lidar over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), India, is presented. The climatology obtained from the ground-based lidar is compared with the climatology obtained from 7 and a half years (June 2006-December 2013) of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations. A very good agreement is found between the two climatologies in spite of their opposite viewing geometries and the differences in sampling frequencies. Nearly 50-55 % of cirrus clouds were found to possess geometrical thickness less than 2 km. Ground-based lidar is found to detect a higher number of sub-visible clouds than CALIOP which has implications for global warming studies as sub-visible cirrus clouds have significant positive radiative forcing. Cirrus clouds with mid-cloud temperatures between -50 to -70 °C have a mean geometrical thickness greater than 2 km in contrast to the earlier reported value of 1.7 km. Trend analyses reveal a statistically significant increase in the altitude of sub-visible cirrus clouds which is consistent with the recent climate model simulations. The mid-cloud altitude of sub-visible cirrus clouds is found to be increasing at the rate of 41 ± 21 m year-1. Statistically significant decrease in optical thickness of sub-visible and thick cirrus clouds is observed. Also, the fraction of sub-visible cirrus cloud is found to have increased by 9 % in the last 16 years (1998 to 2013). This increase is mainly compensated by a 7 % decrease in thin cirrus cloud fraction. This has implications for the temperature and water vapour budget in the tropical tropopause layer.

  1. Long-term economic outlook. Annual review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-01-01

    This review provides economic growth forecast tables for Ontario, Canada, the US, Western Europe, and Japan. Economic growth, government policy, the long-term prospects for inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, trends in the Canadian dollar, and energy markets and prices are also reviewed. Data generally cover 1965-2025. Appendices give a summary of historical and forecast data. 18 figs., 16 tabs.

  2. Long term complications of diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long-term complications of diabetes To use the sharing features on this page, ... other tests. All these may help you keep complications of diabetes away. You will need to check your blood ...

  3. Long-term trends and problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casazza, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    This article discusses the US loss of leadership in areas of utility practices, equipment and manufacturing. The author identifies this as a result of too much emphasis on major resources addressing federal regulations, licensing, and court and congressional hearing testimony rather than on innovation and decision making. The author calls for engineers to be allowed by government and employers to become more involved in policy making and leadership

  4. Feeding secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Johan

    2005-01-01

    life. He shows how Islamic organizations in Britain claim authority through halal in the interfaces of expanding markets, secularism, and the rights and demands of a growing group of Muslim consumers. These claims emerge in a society where powerful political discourses identify the veiling of Muslim...

  5. Fearing Secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sheikh, Mona Kanwal

    Secularism and Beyond - Comparative Perspectives: International og interdisciplinær konference, 29. maj-1. juni, 2007Arrangeret af Anders Berg-Sørensen for "Religion i det 21. århundrede" i samarbejde med kolleger fraKøbenhavns Universitet og universiteterne i Wien og Birmingham...

  6. [Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plancke, L; Amariei, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

  7. Cumulative impact of axial, structural, and repolarization ECG findings on long-term cardiovascular mortality among healthy individuals in Japan: National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Non-Communicable Disease and its Trends in the Aged, 1980 and 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inohara, Taku; Kohsaka, Shun; Okamura, Tomonori; Watanabe, Makoto; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Higashiyama, Aya; Kadota, Aya; Okuda, Nagako; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okayama, Akira; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

    2014-12-01

    Various cohort studies have shown a close association between long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and individual electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities such as axial, structural, and repolarization changes. The combined effect of these ECG abnormalities, each assumed to be benign, has not been thoroughly investigated. Community-dwelling Japanese residents from the National Integrated Project for Perspective Observation of Non-Communicable Disease and its Trends in the Aged, 1980-2004 and 1990-2005 (NIPPON DATA80 and 90), were included in this study. Baseline ECG findings were classified using the Minnesota Code and categorized into axial (left axis deviation, clockwise rotation), structural (left ventricular hypertrophy, atrial enlargement), and repolarization (minor and major ST-T changes) abnormalities. The hazard ratios of the cumulative impacts of ECG findings on long-term CVD death were estimated by stratified Cox proportional hazard models, including adjustments for cohort strata. In all, 16,816 participants were evaluated. The average age was 51.2 ± 13.5 years; 42.7% participants were male. The duration of follow up was 300,924 person-years (mean 17.9 ± 5.8 years); there were 1218 CVD deaths during that time. Overall, 4203 participants (25.0%) had one or more categorical ECG abnormalities: 3648 (21.7%) had a single abnormality, and 555 (3.3%) had two or more. The risk of CVD mortality increased as the number of abnormalities accumulated (single abnormality HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.13-1.48; ≥2 abnormalities HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.73-2.53). Individual ECG abnormalities had an additive effect in predicting CVD outcome risk in our large-scale cohort study. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  8. Tendência secular do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo (1976-1998 Secular trends in birth weight in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1976-1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Augusto Monteiro

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Resgatar a tendência secular da distribuição do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo, SP, bem como examinar suas possíveis causas, com base em dados coletados por dois inquéritos domiciliares sobre condições de saúde na infância realizados em 1984/85 e em 1995/96, complementados por informações procedentes de levantamento de prontuários de maternidades e por informações do Sistema Estadual de Declarações de Nascidos Vivos. MÉTODOS: Os inquéritos domiciliares estudaram amostras probabilísticas da população infantil de São Paulo com idade inferior a cinco anos (n=1.016 em 1984/85; n=1.280 em 1995/96. O levantamento de prontuários estudou uma amostra probabilística dos partos ocorridos nas maternidades da cidade no ano de 1976 (n=5.734. As declarações de nascidos vivos referem-se às coortes de crianças nascidas na cidade entre 1993 e 1998 (cerca de 200 mil crianças por ano. O estudo da distribuição social do peso ao nascer levou em conta a renda familiar per capita e a escolaridade materna. A estratégia analítica para estudar os determinantes da tendência secular do peso ao nascer empregou modelos hierárquicos de causalidade, análises multivariadas de regressão e procedimentos análogos aos utilizados para calcular riscos atribuíveis populacionais. RESULTADOS/CONCLUSÕES: A distribuição do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo (média de 3.160 g com 8,9% de pesos OBJECTIVE: Data from two household surveys on infant and child health status undertaken in the mid-80s and mid-90s, complemented with previous data collected from maternity hospitals records and more recent data provided by the state system on birth registries, allowed to characterize and analyse secular trends in birth weight in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: The household surveys included random samples of children under 5 years old (n=1,016 children in 1984-85 and n=1,280 children in 1995-96. A random sample of births that

  9. Secular trends: a ten-year comparison of the amount and type of physical activity and inactivity of random samples of adolescents in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frömel Karel

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An optimal level of physical activity (PA in adolescence influences the level of PA in adulthood. Although PA declines with age have been demonstrated repeatedly, few studies have been carried out on secular trends. The present study assessed levels, types and secular trends of PA and sedentary behaviour of a sample of adolescents in the Czech Republic. Methods The study comprised two cross-sectional cohorts of adolescents ten years apart. The analysis compared data collected through a week-long monitoring of adolescents' PA in 1998-2000 and 2008-2010. Adolescents wore either Yamax SW-701 or Omron HJ-105 pedometer continuously for 7 days (at least 10 hours per day excluding sleeping, hygiene and bathing. They also recorded their number of steps per day, the type and duration of PA and sedentary behaviour (in minutes on record sheets. In total, 902 adolescents (410 boys; 492 girls aged 14-18 were eligible for analysis. Results Overweight and obesity in Czech adolescents participating in this study increased from 5.5% (older cohort, 1998-2000 to 10.4% (younger cohort, 2008-2010. There were no inter-cohort significant changes in the total amount of sedentary behaviour in boys. However in girls, on weekdays, there was a significant increase in the total duration of sedentary behaviour of the younger cohort (2008-2010 compared with the older one (1998-2000. Studying and screen time (television and computer were among the main sedentary behaviours in Czech adolescents. The types of sedentary behaviour also changed: watching TV (1998-2000 was replaced by time spent on computers (2008-2010. The Czech health-related criterion (achieving 11,000 steps per day decreased only in boys from 68% (1998-2000 to 55% (2008-2010. Across both genders, 55%-75% of Czech adolescents met the health-related criterion of recommended steps per day, however less participants in the younger cohort (2008-2010 met this criterion than in the older cohort

  10. The Influence of Secular Trends in Body Height and Weight on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity among Chinese Children and Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Lian Guo; Sun, Li Li; Wu, Shao Wei; Yang, Yi De; Li, Xiao Hui; Wang, Zheng He; Wu, Lu; Wang, Fu Zhi; Ma, Jun

    2016-12-01

    To explore the influence of secular trends in body height and weight on the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents. The data were obtained from five cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health. Overweight/obesity was defined as BMI-for-age Z-score of per the Wold Health Organization (WHO) reference values. Body height and weight for each sex and age were standardized to those reported in 1985 (standardized height: SHY; standardized weight: SWY) and for each sex and year at age 7 (standardized height: SHA; standardized weight: SWA) using the Z-score method. The prevalence of overweight/obesity in Chinese children was 20.2% among boys and 10.7% among girls in 2010 and increased continuously from 1985 to 2010. Among boys and girls of normal weight, SHY and SHA were significantly greater than SWY and SWA, respectively (P overweight/obesity, SHY was significantly lower than SWY (P overweight boys aged 7-8 years and girls aged 7-9 years. SHY/SHW and SHA/SWA among normal-weight groups were greater than among overweight and obese groups (P overweight/obesity among Chinese children may be related to a rapid increase in body weight before age 9 and lack of secular increase in body height after age 12. Copyright © 2016 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

  11. Aging Baby Boomers and the Rising Cost of Chronic Back Pain: Secular Trend Analysis of Longitudinal Medical Expenditures Panel Survey Data for Years 2000 to 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Monica; Davis, Matthew A.; Stano, Miron; Whedon, James M.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives The purposes of this study were to analyze data from the longitudinal Medical Expenditures Panel Survey (MEPS) to evaluate the impact of an aging population on secular trends in back pain and chronicity and to provide estimates of treatment costs for patients who used only ambulatory services. Methods Using the MEPS 2-year longitudinal data for years 2000 to 2007, we analyzed data from all adult respondents. Of the total number of MEPS respondent records analyzed (N = 71 838), we identified 12 104 respondents with back pain and further categorized 3842 as chronic cases and 8262 as nonchronic cases. Results Secular trends from the MEPS data indicate that the prevalence of back pain has increased by 29%, whereas chronic back pain increased by 64%. The average age among all adults with back pain increased from 45.9 to 48.2 years; the average age among adults with chronic back pain increased from 48.5 to 52.2 years. Inflation-adjusted (to 2010 dollars) biennial expenditures on ambulatory services for chronic back pain increased by 129% over the same period, from $15.6 billion in 2000 to 2001 to $35.7 billion in 2006 to 2007. Conclusion The prevalence of back pain, especially chronic back pain, is increasing. To the extent that the growth in chronic back pain is caused, in part, by an aging population, the growth will likely continue or accelerate. With relatively high cost per adult with chronic back pain, total expenditures associated with back pain will correspondingly accelerate under existing treatment patterns. This carries implications for prioritizing health policy, clinical practice, and research efforts to improve care outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness and for health workforce planning. PMID:23380209

  12. Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

    2016-01-01

    Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where

  13. [Soil Olsen-P content changing trend and its relationship with phosphorus surplus and crop yield under long-term fertilization in loessial soil region on the Loess Plateau, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    E, Sheng Zhe; Yang, Zhi Qi; Zeng, Xi Bai; Wang, Ya Nan; Luo, Zhao Xia; Yuan, Jin Hua; Che, Zong Xian

    2017-11-01

    The changing trend of soil available phosphorus (Olsen-P) content in soil and its relationship with soil phosphorus surplus and crop yield are fundamental when making appropriate phosphate fertilizer recommendations. In this paper, the influences of long-term fertilization on crops phosphorus uptake, soil phosphorus surplus, changing trend of soil available phosphorus content and relationships of soil available phosphorus content with soil phosphorus surplus and crop yield were investigated through 34 years (1981-2015) long-term trial in loessial soil region on the Loess Plateau. The experiment had a completely-randomized-block split-plot design in triplicate. Two main-plot treatments were no farmyard manure and farmyard manure (M), and four subplot treatments were CK (no fertilizer), N (application of chemical fertilizer N), NP (application of chemical fertilizer NP) and NPK (balanced application of chemical fertilizer NPK), respectively. The results showed that fertilization treatments and crop types significantly influenced uptake amount of phosphorus and soil phosphorus surplus. Averaged over time from 1981 to 2015, wheat mean phosphorus uptake amounts of CK, N, NP, NPK, M, MN, MNP and MNPK were 8.63, 10.64, 16.22, 16.21, 16.25, 17.83, 20.39 and 20.27 kg·hm -2 , while rape phosphorus uptakeamounts of eight treatments were 4.40, 8.38, 15.08, 15.71, 10.52, 11.23, 17.96 and 17.66 kg·hm -2 , respectively. The surplus amount of soil phosphorus significantly correlated with the amount of phosphorus applied to soil. When soil phosphorus surplus amount equal zero, wheat and rape phosphorus input amounts were 10.47 kg·hm -2 and 6.97 kg·hm -2 , respectively. Soil phosphorus surplus amount significantly influenced the changing trend of available phosphorus content in soil. CK and N treatments had no phosphorus input, and soil available phosphorus content exhibited a declining trend, annually decreased by 0.16 mg·kg -1 and 0.15 mg·kg -1 , respectively. In contrast

  14. SECULAR TRENDS AND LATITUDE GRADIENTS IN THE MALE-FEMALE RATIO AT BIRTH IN YUGOSLAVIA AND THE EX-YUGOSLAVIAN STATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Grech

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Latitude gradients and secular trends in Europe and North America have been found in the male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births which approximates 0.515. Methods: Annual national data for Yugoslavia and the post-Yugoslavia States for male and female live births were obtained from the World Health Organisation and analysed with contingency tables. Results: This study analysed 22,020,729 live births. There was a increasing trend in M/F prior to the breakup of the former Yugoslavia (1950–1990, p = 0.002, followed by a decreasing trend after 1990 (p = 0.02. A latitude gradient was also noted, with more males being born in southern, warmer latitudes (p < 0.0001. There was an overall excess of 42,753 male births based on an anticipated M/F of 0.515. Conclusion: M/F is decreasing in this region, similar to the rest of Europe and North America. A latitude gradient is also present with more males being born in warmer (more Southern latitudes (p < 0.0001, even in this small region and over the short time-frame studied.

  15. Nuclear Energy, Long Term Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, V.

    2006-01-01

    There are serious warnings about depletion of oil and gas and even more serious warnings about dangers of climate change caused by emission of carbon dioxide. Should developed countries be called to replace CO2 emitting energy sources as soon as possible, and the time available may not be longer then few decades, can nuclear energy answer the call and what are the requirements? Assuming optimistic contribution of renewable energy sources, can nuclear energy expand to several times present level in order to replace large part of fossil fuels use? Paper considers intermediate and long-term requirements. Future of nuclear power depends on satisfactory answers on several questions. First group of questions are those important for near and intermediate future. They deal with economics and safety of nuclear power stations in the first place. On the same time scale a generally accepted concept for radioactive waste disposal is also required. All these issues are in the focus of present research and development. Safer and more economical reactors are targets of international efforts in Generation IV and INPRO projects, but aiming further ahead these innovative projects are also addressing issues such as waste reduction and proliferation resistance. However, even assuming successful technical development of these projects, and there is no reason to doubt it, long term and large-scale nuclear power use is thereby not yet secured. If nuclear power is to play an essential role in the long-term future energy production and in reduction of CO2 emission, than several additional questions must be replied. These questions will deal with long-term nuclear fuel sufficiency, with necessary contribution of nuclear power in sectors of transport and industrial processes and with nuclear proliferation safety. This last issue is more political then technical, thus sometimes neglected by nuclear engineers, yet it will have essential role for the long-term prospects of nuclear power. The

  16. Analysing long term discursive processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horsbøl, Anders

    which extend beyond the single interaction, for instance negotiations or planning processes, seems to have played a less important role, with studies such as Iedema 2001 and Wodak 2000 as exceptions. These long term processes, however, are central to the constitution and workings of organizations......What do timescales - the notion that processes take place or can be viewed within a shorter or longer temporal range (Lemke 2005) - mean for the analysis of discourse? What are the methodological consequences of analyzing discourse at different timescales? It may be argued that discourse analysis...... in general has favored either the analysis of short term processes such as interviews, discussions, and lessons, or the analysis of non-processual entities such as (multimodal) texts, arguments, discursive repertoires, and discourses (in a Foucaultian sense). In contrast, analysis of long term processes...

  17. Long term radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavie, J.M.

    1984-01-01

    In France, waste management, a sensitive issue in term of public opinion, is developing quickly, and due to twenty years of experience, is now reaching maturity. With the launching of the French nuclear programme, the use of radioactive sources in radiotherapy and industry, waste management has become an industrial activity. Waste management is an integrated system dealing with the wastes from their production to the long term disposal, including their identification, sortage, treatment, packaging, collection and transport. This system aims at guaranteing the protection of present and future populations with an available technology. In regard to their long term management, and the design of disposals, radioactive wastes are divided in three categories. This classification takes into account the different radioisotopes contained, their half life and their total activity. Presently short-lived wastes are stored in the shallowland disposal of the ''Centre de la Manche''. Set up within the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the National Agency for waste management (ANDRA) is responsible within the framework of legislative and regulatory provisions for long term waste management in France [fr

  18. Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loaiciga, Hugo A

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

  19. 85 SECULARISM, SECULAR STATE AND RELIGIOUS FREEDOM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    finds that, although more feasible within secular states, religious freedom and human rights are possibilities ... and values, nor uses its powers and offices to persecute religion.” According to ... Secularism is in fact an expression of humanism.

  20. Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C; Gorst-Rasmussen, A; Fischer, T; Schønheyder, H C; Rothman, K J; Sørensen, H T

    2009-01-01

    Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation, and overdispersion. The model resembles an ordinary time series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark. Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average the dynamic model estimated a higher peak-to-trough ratio than traditional models, and showed gradual changes in seasonal patterns. Analyses conducted with this model provide insights not available from more traditional approaches.

  1. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China – Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l. on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994–2013 has increased significantly by 0.2–0.3 ppbv yr−1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry–climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3, a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT can explain ∼ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr−1. AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr−1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why

  2. The long-term power purchase: Recovery of capacity costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, P.S.

    1990-01-01

    As electric utilities increase their reliance on the long-term power purchase as an alternative to utility-owned generation, the appropriate rate treatment of the costs established in the purchase agreement assumes growing importance. In the November 9, 1989, issue, the authors examined the recent trend among state regulators to treat the long-term purchase in a manner similar to the addition by a utility of a new plant, including a full-scale prudence review. This installment will review recent rulings on the related issue of rate recovery of long-term capacity costs through the fuel cost adjustment clause

  3. Long-term biodosimetry Redux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

    2016-01-01

    This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

  4. Long term stability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

  5. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-02-01

    Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. Child sexual abuse involving physical contact was reported by 20% of women and 16% of men. In adulthood, figures were 20% and 10% for women and men, respectively. Prevalence of any form of sexual violence across the lifespan was 42% (women) and 38% (men). Analysis by year of birth indicated a curvilinear pattern for child sexual abuse with lower prevalence in the oldest and youngest participants. Sexual violence in young adulthood showed a linear pattern with higher prevalence in the youngest participants. The trend of lower rates of experience of child sexual abuse in younger adults in the sample is in keeping with findings from other countries. The trend of higher rates of adult sexual violence in younger adults is worrying, particularly since the same participants reported less experience of child sexual abuse than the preceding generations. There is a paucity of international data addressing the issue of cohort differences in exposure to sexual violence. Within-study analysis, and follow-up studies designed to maximize replicability, are needed to inform discussion about societal trends in different types of sexual violence.

  6. Long-term effect of fee-for-service-based reimbursement cuts on processes and outcomes of care for stroke: interrupted time-series study from Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Yu-Chi; Chang, Guann-Ming; Cheng, Shou-Hsia

    2015-01-01

    As healthcare spending continues to increase, reimbursement cuts have become 1 type of healthcare reform to contain costs. Little is known about the long-term impact of cuts in reimbursement, especially under a global budget cap with fee-for-service (FFS) reimbursement, on processes and outcomes of care. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts have been implemented since July 2002 in Taiwan. We examined the long-term association of FFS-based reimbursement cuts with trends in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. We analyzed all 411,487 patients with stroke admitted to general acute care hospitals in Taiwan during the period 1997 to 2010 through Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We used a quasi-experimental design with quarterly measures of healthcare utilization and outcomes and used segmented autoregressive integrated moving average models for the analysis. After accounting for secular trends and other confounders, the implementation of the FFS-based reimbursement cuts was associated with trend changes in computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scanning (0.31% per quarter; P=0.013), antiplatelet/anticoagulant use (-0.20% per quarter; Pprocesses and outcomes of care over time. However, the reimbursement cuts from the FFS-based global budget cap are associated with trend changes in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts may have long-term positive and negative associations with stroke care. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  7. Eliminating large-scale magnetospheric current perturbations from long-term geomagnetic observatory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pick, L.; Korte, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Magnetospheric currents generate the largest external contribution to the geomagnetic field observed on Earth. Of particular importance is the solar-driven effect of the ring current whose fluctuations overlap with internal field secular variation (SV). Recent core field models thus co-estimate this effect but their validity is limited to the last 15 years offering satellite data. We aim at eliminating magnetospheric modulation from the whole geomagnetic observatory record from 1840 onwards in order to obtain clean long-term SV that will enhance core flow and geodynamo studies.The ring current effect takes form of a southward directed external dipole field aligned with the geomagnetic main field axis. Commonly the Dst index (Sugiura, 1964) is used to parametrize temporal variations of this dipole term. Because of baseline instabilities, the alternative RC index was derived from hourly means of 21 stations spanning 1997-2013 (Olsen et al., 2014). We follow their methodology based on annual means from a reduced station set spanning 1960-2010. The absolute level of the variation so determined is "hidden" in the static lithospheric offsets taken as quiet-time means. We tackle this issue by subtracting crustal biases independently calculated for each observatory from an inversion of combined Swarm satellite and observatory data.Our index reproduces the original annual RC index variability with a reasonable offset of -10 nT in the reference time window 2000-2010. Prior to that it depicts a long-term trend consistent with the external dipole term from COV-OBS (Gillet et al., 2013), being the only long-term field model available for comparison. Sharper variations that are better correlated with the Ap index than the COV-OBS solution lend support to the usefulness of our initial modeling approach. Following a detailed sensitivity study of station choice future work will focus on increasing the resolution from annual to hourly means.

  8. Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

    OpenAIRE

    McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. METHODS: National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. RESULTS: C...

  9. Secular trends in the rate of low birth weight in Brazilian State Capitals in the period 1996 to 2010 Tendencia secular de la tasa de bajo peso al nacer en las capitales brasileñas de 1996 a 2010 Tendência secular da taxa de baixo peso ao nascer nas capitais brasileiras de 1996 a 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helma Jane Ferreira Veloso

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Secular trends in rates of low birth weight in Brazilian state capital cities were evaluated for the period 1996 to 2010 using joinpoint regression models. The rates were calculated using data from the Live Births Information System. Newborns weighing less than 500g were excluded. Only data for capital cities was included since under-registration of births in these cities is lower and new trends can be detected earlier. There was a significant increase in the rate of low birth weight in the Brazilian capitals of the North Region, Northeast Region, South Region and Southeast Region up to 2003/2004, stabilizing thereafter. In the capitals of the Center-west Region the rate increased throughout the whole study period. The rate of low birth weight was higher in the capitals of the more developed regions. The rate of multiple births increased significantly in all Brazilian capitals, while the stillbirth rate decreased and showed a negative correlation with the rate of low birth weight. The increase in the rate of low birth weight may be partially explained by the increase in multiple births, an increase in the birth of infants weighing 500 to 999g and by the reduction in the stillbirth rate.La tendencia secular de la tasa de bajo peso al nacer de 1996 a 2010 en las capitales brasileñas se evaluó utilizando modelos de regresión joinpoint. Las tasas se calcularon a partir del Sistema de Información sobre Nacidos Vivos, excluyéndose recién nacidos con un peso A tendência secular da taxa de baixo peso ao nascer de 1996 a 2010 nas capitais brasileiras foi avaliada utilizando-se modelos de regressão joinpoint. As taxas foram calculadas a partir do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos, excluindo-se recém-nascido com peso < 500g. Foram incluídos apenas dados das capitais, onde o sub-registro é menor e novas tendências podem ser detectadas mais precocemente. A taxa de baixo peso ao nascer aumentou significantemente nas capitais

  10. Navigating Long-Term Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Holt MD

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Americans over age 65 constitute a larger percentage of the population each year: from 14% in 2010 (40 million elderly to possibly 20% in 2030 (70 million elderly. In 2015, an estimated 66 million people provided care to the ill, disabled, and elderly in the United States. In 2000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, 15 million Americans used some form of long-term care: adult day care, home health, nursing home, or hospice. In all, 13% of people over 85 years old, compared with 1% of those ages 65 to 74, live in nursing homes in the United States. Transitions of care, among these various levels of care, are common: Nursing home to hospital transfer, one of the best-studied transitions, occurs in more than 25% of nursing home residents per year. This article follows one patient through several levels of care.

  11. The timing of normal puberty and the age limits of sexual precocity: variations around the world, secular trends, and changes after migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parent, Anne-Simone; Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders; Skakkebaek, Niels E; Toppari, Jorma; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre

    2003-10-01

    During the past decade, possible advancement in timing of puberty has been reported in the United States. In addition, early pubertal development and an increased incidence of sexual precocity have been noticed in children, primarily girls, migrating for foreign adoption in several Western European countries. These observations are raising the issues of current differences and secular trends in timing of puberty in relation to ethnic, geographical, and socioeconomic background. None of these factors provide an unequivocal explanation for the earlier onset of puberty seen in the United States. In the formerly deprived migrating children, refeeding and catch-up growth may prime maturation. However, precocious puberty is seen also in some nondeprived migrating children. Attention has been paid to the changing milieu after migration, and recently, the possible role of endocrine- disrupting chemicals from the environment has been considered. These observations urge further study of the onset of puberty as a possible sensitive and early marker of the interactions between environmental conditions and genetic susceptibility that can influence physiological and pathological processes.

  12. Secular trends in parent-reported television viewing among children in the United States, 2001-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, P D; Davis, R E

    2016-03-01

    Examine trends in parent-reported television (TV) viewing among preschoolers (2-5 years) and children (6-11 years) between 2001 and 2012. Data from the 2001-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were used. The analytic sample included 5724 preschoolers and 7104 children. Parent proxy of TV viewing at each of the six 2-year cycles was assessed. Statistically significant decreases in mean TV viewing between 2001 and 2012 were observed for preschoolers of nearly all gender, race-ethnicity and poverty combinations (exception of Mexican American boys), with the largest decrease occurring among non-Hispanic white boys (29% decrease; 2.24 h/day in 2001-2002 to 1.59 h/day in 2011-2012; P = .01). There was evidence of progressive decrease in mean TV viewing among children, but not to the extent that occurred among the preschool population. Across the six respective cycles for the entire preschool sample, the proportion watching <2 h/day of TV was: 34.9, 34.2, 43.9, 43.4, 39.1 and 49.2 (P(trend)  < .001). For children, the respective proportions were: 32.9, 25.2, 38.2, 36.5, 38.1 and 36.6 (P(trend)  = .01). Statistically significant decreases in mean TV viewing between 2001 and 2012 were observed for preschoolers and children. However, a relatively large proportion of parents report their children watching 2 or more hours/day of TV. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Secular Trends in Mortality From Common Cancers in the United States by Educational Attainment, 1993?2001

    OpenAIRE

    Kinsey, Tracy; Jemal, Ahmedin; Liff, Jonathan; Ward, Elizabeth; Thun, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Background Death rates for the four major cancer sites (lung, breast, prostate, and colon and rectum) have declined steadily in the United States among persons aged 25?64 years since the early 1990s. We used national data to examine these trends in relation to educational attainment. Methods We calculated age-standardized death rates for each of the four cancers by level of education among 25- to 64-year-old non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women for 1993 through 2001 using d...

  14. Secular trends in Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated in a tertiary-care hospital: increasing prevalence and accelerated decline in antimicrobial susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo de Carvalho Santana

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: INTRODUCTION Klebsiella pneumoniae has become an increasingly important etiologic agent of nosocomial infections in recent years. This is mainly due to the expression of virulence factors and development of resistance to several antimicrobial drugs. METHODS This retrospective study examines data obtained from the microbiology laboratory of a Brazilian tertiary-care hospital. To assess temporal trends in prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility, K. pneumoniae isolates were analyzed from 2000 to 2013. The relative frequencies of K. pneumoniae isolation were calculated among all Gram-negative bacilli isolated in each period analyzed. Susceptibility tests were performed using automated systems. RESULTS: From 2000-2006, K. pneumonia isolates comprised 10.7% of isolated Gram-negative bacilli (455/4260. From 2007-2013, this percentage was 18.1% (965/5331. Strictly considering isolates from bloodstream infections, the relative annual prevalence of K. pneumoniae increased from 14-17% to 27-32% during the same periods. A progressive decrease in K. pneumoniae susceptibility to all antimicrobial agents assessed was detected. Partial resistance was also observed to antimicrobial drugs that have been used more recently, such as colistin and tigecycline. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates that K. pneumoniae has become a major pathogen among hospitalized patients and confirms its recent trend of increasing antimicrobial resistance.

  15. Secular trends of blood isolates in patients from a rural area population hospitalized in a tertiary center in a small city in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holevas Pierros V

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most of the studies evaluating the secular trends of blood isolates come from tertiary hospitals in urban areas. We sought to study the trends of the antimicrobial resistance of blood isolates in patients from a rural population hospitalized in a tertiary hospital in a small city in Greece. Methods We retrospectively collected and analysed data for the first positive blood culture obtained for each admission for each patient hospitalized in General Hospital of Tripolis, Tripolis, Peloponnesus, Greece during a 5 year period (16/05/2000 – 15/05/2005. Results Sixty-seven thousand and seventy patients were hospitalized during the study period from whom 3,206 blood cultures were obtained. A higher increase of the number of obtained blood cultures than the number of admissions was noted during the study period (p Escherichia coli (29%, and Staphylococcus aureus (18.2% were the most commonly isolated pathogens. Among the Staphylococcus aureus isolates, the proportion of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA was 17.2% (5/29. The proportion of Escherichia coli resistant to trimethoprim and sulfamethoxazole, ampicillin and cefuroxime was 29.6% (32/108, 25.0% (27/108, and 8.3% (9/108 respectively. Imipenem-resistance was noted in 3.4% (1/29 of Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates. There were only 6 (1.6% Acinetobacter baummanii blood isolates during the study period. Conclusion The antimicrobial resistance of isolates from patients receiving care at the studied tertiary hospital in a small city in Greece is considerably less compared to that noted in tertiary hospitals in larger cities of the country.

  16. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiber, Nadia

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

  17. An Increase in the Incidence of Infective Endocarditis in England since 2008: A secular trend interrupted time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M.; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2017-01-01

    Background Antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) administered prior to invasive procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis (IE) has historically been the focus of IE prevention. Recent changes in AP guidelines in the US and Europe have substantially reduced the numbers for whom AP is recommended. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommended complete cessation of AP in March 2008. We report the impact of these guidelines on AP prescribing; in addition, IE incidence was examined following the introduction of the guidelines. Methods We analyzed English AP prescribing data from January 2004 to March 2013 and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of IE from January 2000 to March 2013. Findings AP prescribing rates fell dramatically after introduction of the NICE guidance (10,935 prescriptions/month vs. 2,236 prescriptions/month, p<0·0001). Commencing in March 2008, there was also a significant increase in the number of IE cases/month (0·11 cases/10million/month, CI 0·05–0·16, p<0·0001) above the projected historical trend. By March 2013, there were an additional 35 cases/month than would have been expected if the previous trend had continued. This increase in IE incidence was significant for both ‘high-risk’ and ‘lower-risk’ individuals. Interpretation Although our data do not establish a causal relationship, there has been a substantial reduction in AP prescribing and a significant increase in IE incidence in England since introduction of the NICE guidelines in 2008. Funding Different aspects of this study were supported by Heart Research UK and Simplyhealth [Grant Ref: RG2632/13/14] and NIDCR R03 grant [Ref: 1R03DE023092-01] from the National Institutes for Health. PMID:25467569

  18. A model for solar constant secular changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, contrast models for solar active region and global photospheric features are used to reproduce the observed Active Cavity Radiometer and Earth Radiation Budget secular trends in reasonably good fashion. A prediction for the next decade of solar constant variations is made using the model. Secular trends in the solar constant obtained from the present model support the view that the Maunder Minimum may be related to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century.

  19. Secular trends in fast-food restaurant use among adolescents and maternal caregivers from 1999 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Nicole; Hannan, Peter J; Fulkerson, Jayne A; Laska, Melissa N; Eisenberg, Marla E; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

    2014-05-01

    We examined trends from 1999 to 2010 in adolescents' self-reported fast-food restaurant use alongside maternal reports of fast-food consumption and purchasing from restaurants for family meals. Middle- and high-school student participants from Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota, represented diverse ethnic/racial and socioeconomic backgrounds. Adolescents completed classroom-administered surveys and maternal caregivers responded by phone or mail. The overall prevalence of frequent fast-food consumption, defined as 3 or more times per week, decreased from 1999 to 2010 among adolescents (1999: 25%; 2010: 19%; P < .001) and maternal caregivers (1999: 17%; 2010: 11%; P < .001), but sociodemographic disparities were apparent. For example, the prevalence of frequent fast-food consumption remained highest and did not significantly decrease among Black or Native American youths. The overall prevalence of frequent fast-food purchases for family meals did not significantly decrease; large decreases were observed only among Hispanic families (1999: 18%; 2010: 6%; P < .001). In light of previous findings linking frequent fast-food consumption to greater weight gain and poor nutrition, the observed decreases in consumption are encouraging and interventions are needed to address observed disparities.

  20. Secular trends of physical growth and abdominal adiposity of school children and adolescents living at a moderate altitude in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossio-Bolaños, Marco; de Arruda, Miguel; Andruske, Cynthia Lee; Luarte-Rocha, Cristian; Gómez-Campos, Rossana

    2017-02-01

    Identify changes in physical growth and abdominal adiposity at an interval of 14 years in children and adolescents living at a moderate altitude in Peru. The data comes from two cross-sectional studies carried out in the city of Arequipa, Peru, located at a moderate altitude of 2,320 meters. In 2001, 473 males and 482 females were assessed, and in 2015, 432 males and 403 females between 6.0 and 12.9 years old were evaluated. Data were collected in public state schools and measured using the anthropometric variables for weight, height, and waist circumference. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated according to age and sex. Positive trends for weight were identified for both males and females at all ages (p  .05) occurred in height for females between the ages of 6 and 8 years. However, commencing at age 9 until 12 years, females showed positive and significant increases (p Peru. These changes may be associated with the rapid economic development in the country. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Long term study of mechanical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed M. Diab

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, properties of limestone cement concrete containing different replacement levels of limestone powder were examined. It includes 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25% of limestone powder as a partial replacement of cement. Silica fume was added incorporated with limestone powder in some mixes to enhance the concrete properties. Compressive strength, splitting tensile strength and modulus of elasticity were determined. Also, durability of limestone cement concrete with different C3A contents was examined. The weight loss, length change and cube compressive strength loss were measured for concrete attacked by 5% sodium sulfate using an accelerated test up to 525 days age. The corrosion resistance was measured through accelerated corrosion test using first crack time, cracking width and steel reinforcement weight loss. Consequently, for short and long term, the use of limestone up to 10% had not a significant reduction in concrete properties. It is not recommended to use blended limestone cement in case of sulfate attack. The use of limestone cement containing up to 25% limestone has insignificant effect on corrosion resistance before cracking.

  2. Long-term competence restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Douglas R; DeYoung, Nathaniel J

    2014-01-01

    While the United States Supreme Court's Jackson v. Indiana decision and most state statutes mandate determinations of incompetent defendants' restoration probabilities, courts and forensic clinicians continue to lack empirical evidence to guide these determinations and do not yet have a consensus regarding whether and under what circumstances incompetent defendants are restorable. The evidence base concerning the restoration likelihood of those defendants who fail initial restoration efforts is even further diminished and has largely gone unstudied. In this study, we examined the disposition of a cohort of defendants who underwent long-term competence restoration efforts (greater than six months) and identified factors related to whether these defendants were able to attain restoration and adjudicative success. Approximately two-thirds (n = 52) of the 81 individuals undergoing extended restoration efforts were eventually deemed restored to competence. Lengths of hospitalization until successful restoration are presented with implications for the reasonable length of time that restoration efforts should persist. Older individuals were less likely to be restored and successfully adjudicated, and individuals with more severe charges and greater factual legal understanding were more likely to be restored and adjudicated. The significance of these findings for courts and forensic clinicians is discussed.

  3. Uranium ... long-term confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1983-01-01

    Half way through 1983 the outlook for the world's uranium producers was far from bright if one takes a short term view. The readily accessible facts present a gloomy picture. The spot prices of uranium over the past few years decreased from a high of $42-$43/lb to a low of $17 in 1982. It now hovers between $23 and $24. the contract prices negotiated between producers and consumers are not so accessible but they do not reflect the spot price. The reasons why contractual uranium prices do not follow the usual dictates of supply and demand are related to the position in which uranium and associated power industries find themselves. There is public reaction with strong emotional overtones as well as much reduced expectations about the electric power needs of the world. Furthermore the supply of uranium is not guaranteed despite present over production. However the people in the industry, taking the medium- and long-term view, are not despondent

  4. Long-term corrosion studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gdowski, G.

    1998-01-01

    The scope of this activity is to assess the long-term corrosion properties of metallic materials under consideration for fabricating waste package containers. Three classes of metals are to be assessed: corrosion resistant, intermediate corrosion resistant, and corrosion allowance. Corrosion properties to be evaluated are general, pitting and crevice corrosion, stress-corrosion cracking, and galvanic corrosion. The performance of these materials will be investigated under conditions that are considered relevant to the potential emplacement site. Testing in four aqueous solutions, and vapor phases above them, and at two temperatures are planned for this activity. (The environmental conditions, test metals, and matrix are described in detail in Section 3.0.) The purpose and objective of this activity is to obtain the kinetic and mechanistic information on degradation of metallic alloys currently being considered for waste package containers. This information will be used to provide assistance to (1) waste package design (metal barrier selection) (E-20-90 to E-20-92), (2) waste package performance assessment activities (SIP-PA-2), (3) model development (E-20-75 to E-20-89). and (4) repository license application

  5. Secular decline in male testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin serum levels in Danish population surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Anna-Maria; Jensen, Tina Kold; Juul, Anders

    2007-01-01

    Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function....

  6. Secular and race/ethnic trends in glycemic outcomes by BMI in US adults: The role of waist circumference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Sandra S; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth; Popkin, Barry M

    2017-07-01

    For the same body mass index (BMI) level, waist circumference (WC) is higher in more recent years. How this impacts diabetes and prediabetes prevalence in the United States and for different race/ethnic groups is unknown. We examined prevalence differences in diabetes and prediabetes by BMI over time, investigated whether estimates were attenuated after adjusting for waist circumference, and evaluated implications of these patterns on race/ethnic disparities in glycemic outcomes. Data came from 12 614 participants aged 20 to 74 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1988-1994 and 2007-2012). We estimated prevalence differences in diabetes and prediabetes by BMI over time in multivariable models. Relevant interactions evaluated race/ethnic differences. Among normal, overweight, and class I obese individuals, there were no significant differences in diabetes prevalence over time. However, among individuals with class II/III obesity, diabetes prevalence rose 7.6 percentage points in 2007-2012 vs 1988-1994. This estimate was partly attenuated after adjustment for mean waist circumference but not mean BMI. For prediabetes, prevalence was 10 to 13 percentage points higher over time at lower BMI values, with minimal attenuation after adjustment for WC. All patterns held within race/ethnic groups. Diabetes disparities among blacks and Mexican Americans relative to whites remained in both periods, regardless of BMI, and persisted after adjustment for WC. Diabetes prevalence rose over time among individuals with class II/III obesity and may be partly due to increasing waist circumference. Anthropometric measures did not appear to account for temporal increases in prediabetes, nor did they attenuate race/ethnic disparities in diabetes. Reasons underlying these trends require further investigation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Secular trends in age at menarche among Caboclo populations from Pará, Amazonia, Brazil: 1930-1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, H P; Padez, C

    2006-01-01

    The present study is part of a large research project on growth, development, nutrition, and health of Caboclo populations from the Brazilian Amazon. The aim of this paper is to analyze the age of menarche in adolescents (N=164) and adult women (219) in the studied populations. Caboclo are admixed rural, peasant groups that live along the Amazon river and its tributaries, and there are few previous studies about them. Probit analysis of the status quo data yielded a median age at menarche of 12.29+/-1.76 years. The retrospective method was applied to recall data of the 77 post-menarcheal adolescents, yielding an average of 13.06+/-1.27 years. Number of children in the family did not show any statistical influence on age at menarche in any age group. In adult women, age at menarche decreased from 14.50 in those born in 1930 to 12.88 for those born in 1980 (F=4.371, P=0.001). The downward trend found was, on average, 0.237 year per decade in the study period. The median age at menarche in the adolescents (12.29 years) is one of the lowest values found for Central and South American populations. In the ecological context, a low age at menarche could be an adaptive advantage because it provides a greater chance for reproduction at a young age in an environment where, until recently, life expectancy was low. As has been reported for other developing countries, the change found in age at menarche in the women born from the 1930s to the 1980s is likely to be related to changes in health and nutritional factors that occurred in Brazil because this country experienced significant improvement in living standards related to education, vaccination, and health conditions, which, although not equally, reached all regions after the 1960s. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 18:83-92, 2006. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  8. Secular Trends in Utilization of Critical Care Services Among Candidemia-Associated Hospitalizations: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Lavi

    2016-01-01

    half of the last decade. Substantial heterogeneity was noted in the rate of rise in the incidence of C-ICU across examined age groups. Further study in other populations is required to corroborate our findings and examine the sources of the observed trends.

  9. Secular trends in the appropriateness of empirical antibiotic treatment in patients with bacteremia: a comparison between three prospective cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daitch, Vered; Akayzen, Yulia; Abu-Ghanem, Yasmin; Eliakim-Raz, Noa; Paul, Mical; Leibovici, Leonard; Yahav, Dafna

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study was to explore whether the percentage of inappropriate empirical antibiotic treatment in patients with bacteremia changed over time and to understand the factors that brought on the change. Three prospective cohorts of patients with bacteremia in three different periods (January 1st, 1988 to December 31st, 1989; May 1st, 2004 to November 30, 2004; May 1st, 2010 to April 30, 2011) were compared. Analysis was performed on a total of 811 patients. In 2010-2011, 55.9% (76/136) of patients with bacteremia received inappropriate empirical treatment, compared with 34.5% (170/493) and 33.5% (55/164) in the first and second periods, respectively, in a significant upward trend (p = 0.001). Resistance to antibiotics increased significantly during the study period. The following variables were included in the multivariate analysis assessing risk factors for inappropriate empirical treatment: study period (third period) [odds ratio, OR = 2.766 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.655-4.625)], gender (male) [OR = 1.511 (1.014-2.253)], pathogen carrying extended-spectrum beta-lactamases [OR = 10.426 (4.688-23.187)], multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii [OR = 5.428 (2.181-13.513)], and skin/soft infections [OR = 3.23 (1.148-9.084)]. A model excluding microbiological data included: gender (male) [OR = 1.648 (1.216-2.234)], study period (third period) [OR = 2.446 (1.653-3.620)], hospital-acquired infection [OR = 1.551 (1.060-2.270)], previous use of antibiotics [OR = 1.815 (1.247-2.642)], bedridden patient [OR = 2.019 (1.114-3.658)], and diabetes mellitus [OR = 1.620 (1.154-2.274)]. We have observed a worrisome increase in the rate of inappropriate empirical treatment of bacteremia. We need tools that will allow us better prediction of the pathogen and its susceptibilities during the first hours of managing a patient suspected of a severe bacterial infection.

  10. Secular decline in male testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin serum levels in Danish population surveys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Anna-Maria; Jensen, Tina K; Juul, Anders

    2007-01-01

    Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function.......Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function....

  11. Talla final de mujeres de Córdoba, Argentina, y exploración de la tendencia secular (1978­1988) Full adult height of women in Cordoba, Argentina, and an exploration of secular trends 1978­1988

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando Agrelo; Laura Rosa Pascual; Beatriz Lobo; Jacobo Sabulsky

    1999-01-01

    Este trabajo tuvo por objeto aportar datos locales sobre la talla final de mujeres de Córdoba, Argentina, y explorar la posibilidad de una tendencia secular en su crecimiento. Se examinaron 513 mujeres de 18 a 40 años de edad, madres de niños incluidos en el estudio CLACYD (Córdoba: lactancia, alimentación, crecimiento y desarrollo). Las mediciones se realizaron según técnicas estandarizadas, durante mayo y junio de 1994. Usando como normas de referencia datos del Centro Nacional de Estadísti...

  12. Secular spirituality versus secular dualism: Towards postsecular ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The term “secular spirituality” is meant to convey the contemporary phenomenon of spirituality as experienced in different spheres not associated with structured, institutionalised religion. An outline is given of the relation between secular reality (the natural realm) and religious/spiritual reality (the supernatural realm), as it ...

  13. Long-term survival and causes of death after stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Davidsen, M; Thorvaldsen, P

    2001-01-01

    As part of the Danish contribution to the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) Project, a register of patients with stroke was established in 1982. The purpose of the present study was to analyze long-term survival and causes of death...

  14. Archiving primary data: solutions for long-term studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mills, J.A.; Teplitsky, C.; Arroyo, B.; Charmantier, A.; H. Becker, P.; Birkhead, T.R.; Bize, P.; Blumstein, D.T.; Bonenfant, C.; Boutin, S.; Bushuev, A.; Cam, E.; Cockburn, A.; Côté, S.D.; Coulson, J.C.; Daunt, F.; Dingemanse, N.J.; Doligez, B.; Drummond, H.; Espie, R.H.M.; Festa-Bianchet, M.; Frentiu, F.; Fitzpatrick, J.W.; Furness, R.W.; Garant, D.; Gauthier, G.; Grant, P.R.; Griesser, M.; Gustafsson, L.; Hansson, B.; Harris, M.P.; Jiguet, F.; Kjellander, P.; Korpimäki, E.; Krebs, C.J.; Lens, L.; Linnell, J.D.C.; Low, M.; McAdam, A.; Margalida, A.; Merilä, J.; Møller, A.P.; Nakagawa, S.; Nilsson, J.-Å.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; van Noordwijk, A.J.; Oro, D.; Pärt, T.; Pelletier, F.; Potti, J.; Pujol, B.; Réale, D.; Rockwell, R.F.; Ropert-Coudert, Y.; Roulin, A.; Thébaud, C.; Sedinger, J.S.; Swenson, J.E.; Visser, M.E.; S.Wanless Westneat, D.F.; Wilson, A.J.; Zedrosser, A.

    2015-01-01

    The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with

  15. Archiving primary data : Solutions for long-term studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mills, James A.; Teplitsky, Celine; Arroyo, Beatriz; Charmantier, Anne; Becker, Peter. H.; Birkhead, Tim R.; Bize, Pierre; Blumstein, Daniel T.; Bonenfant, Christophe; Boutin, Stan; Bushuev, Andrey; Cam, Emmanuelle; Cockburn, Andrew; Cote, Steeve D.; Coulson, John C.; Daunt, Francis; Dingemanse, Niels J.; Doligez, Blandine; Drummond, Hugh; Espie, Richard H. M.; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Frentiu, Francesca; Fitzpatrick, John W.; Furness, Robert W.; Garant, Dany; Gauthier, Gilles; Grant, Peter R.; Griesser, Michael; Gustafsson, Lars; Hansson, Bengt; Harris, Michael P.; Jiguet, Frederic; Kjellander, Petter; Korpimaki, Erkki; Krebs, Charles J.; Lens, Luc; Linne, John D. C.; Low, Matthew; McAdam, Andrew; Margalida, Antoni; Merila, Juha; Moller, Anders P.; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Nilsson, Jan-Ake; Nisbet, Ian C. T.; van Noordwijk, Arie J.; Oro, Daniel; Part, Tomas; Pelletier, Fanie; Potti, Jaime; Pujol, Benoit; Reale, Denis; Rockwel, Robert F.; Ropert-Coudert, Yan; Roulin, Alexandre; Sedinger, James S.; Swenson, Jon E.; Thebaud, Christophe; Visser, Marcel E.; Wanless, Sarah; Westneat, David F.; Wilson, Alastair J.; Zedrosser, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (PIs) with

  16. Long-term outcomes of young people who attempted suicide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grisham, Jessica R; Williams, Alishia D

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Suicidal behavior has increased since the onset of the global recession, a trend that may have long-term health and social implications. OBJECTIVE To test whether suicide attempts among young people signal increased risk for later poor health and social functioning above and beyond a

  17. The long term agroecosystem research network - shared research strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jean L. Steiner; Timothy Strickland; Peter J.A. Kleinman; Kris Havstad; Thomas B. Moorman; M.Susan Moran; Phil Hellman; Ray B. Bryant; David Huggins; Greg McCarty

    2016-01-01

    While current weather patterns and rapidly accelerated changes in technology often focus attention on short-term trends in agriculture, the fundamental demands on modern agriculture to meet society food, feed, fuel and fiber production while providing the foundation for a healthy environment requires long-term perspective. The Long- Term Agroecoystem Research Network...

  18. Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    kaufman, D.S.; Vinther, Bo Møllesøe

    2009-01-01

    continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused...

  19. Secular variations of radon in metropolitan Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghomshei, M.M.; Slawson, W.F.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper sampling of radon within the soil from three sites in metropolitan Vancouver is reported. Alpha trace bi-weekly measurements during a period of 4 years show secular variations with a period of 8-15 months. There are low-radon and high-radon episodes enduring several months to a year. Average radon level during the high-radon episodes reaches 5-10 times that of the low-radon periods. During high-radon episodes the high-frequency variations show very high amplitudes. After filtering of the high-frequency fluctuations, the data from different sites demonstrate remarkably similar trends. It is suggested that along with hydrogeological events, stress relaxation in rocks, earthquake, and magma emplacement may contribute to the sources of secular variations of radon. Because of long-term variations, radon level in urban areas should be monitored on a continuous basis. Single measurements, even those integrating radiation over a period of few months, may sample a low-radon episode, and provide a false assurance, or occur during a high-radon episode and give a false alarm

  20. A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018. (author)

  1. Secular trend: morphology and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedeaud, Adrien; Marc, Andy; Schipman, Julien; Schaal, Karine; Danial, Mario; Guillaume, Marion; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Toussaint, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    In a context of morphological expansion of the general population, how do athletes follow such a pattern of anthropometric growth? Is there any relation to performance? Biometric data including mass, height, body mass index (BMI) and age were collected for 50,376 American athletes representing 249,336 annual performers playing in professional baseball, football, ice hockey and basketball. Distributions by mass in National Football League (NFL) players are described by periods. Field goals have been studied in relation to players' height in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Between 1871 and 2011, athletes from the four sports have increased significantly in mass, height and BMI, following a multi-exponential function series. Consequently, biometric differences between athletes and the general population are increasing gradually. Changes in the mass distribution within the NFL show the emergence of a biometrical specificity in relation to the field position. At the professional level, performance remains structured around precise biometric values. In the NBA, a height-attractor at 201.3 ± 6.3 cm for the best scorers is invariant, regardless of the level of play. These results suggest that laws of growth and biometrics drive high-level sport and organise performance around the specific constraint of each field position. Discrepancies between some mass and height developments question the (disproportionate) large mass increase (relative to the height increase) during the 1980s and 1990s.

  2. Secular Religious Establishment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2013-01-01

    Secularism as a political doctrine claims that religion and politics should be separated. The compatibility question is whether secularism can accept some forms of religious establishment in the form of institutional linkages between state and organised religion. I argue that the answer...... to the compatibility question is not obvious and requires a systematic analysis of secularism. Based on a distinction between a general concept and specific conceptions of secularism I offer a general structure for conceptions of secularism that incorporates both a) basic values, e.g. political equality and freedom...

  3. Long-Term Prediction of Satellite Orbit Using Analytical Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Cheol Yoon

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available A long-term prediction algorithm of geostationary orbit was developed using the analytical method. The perturbation force models include geopotential upto fifth order and degree and luni-solar gravitation, and solar radiation pressure. All of the perturbation effects were analyzed by secular variations, short-period variations, and long-period variations for equinoctial elements such as the semi-major axis, eccentricity vector, inclination vector, and mean longitude of the satellite. Result of the analytical orbit propagator was compared with that of the cowell orbit propagator for the KOREASAT. The comparison indicated that the analytical solution could predict the semi-major axis with an accuarcy of better than ~35meters over a period of 3 month.

  4. Financing long term liabilities (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    charges and fees levied from the waste producers. Altogether, financial resources for decommissioning are needed for the following steps: the post-operational phase in which the facility is prepared for dismantling after its final shut-down, dismantling of the radioactive part of the facility, management, storage and disposal of the radioactive waste, restoration of the site, licensing and regulatory supervision of all these steps. Additional means are necessary for the management, storage and disposal of the spent fuel. The way in which the availability of financial resources is secured differs between public owned installations and installations of the private power utilities. In Germany, past practices has resulted in singular contaminated sites of limited extent, mainly during the first half of the 20. century. Those contaminated sites have been or are being cleaned up and redeveloped. In large areas of Saxony and Thuringia, the geological formations permitted the surface and underground mining of Uranium ore. Facilities of the former Soviet-German WISMUT Ltd. where ore was mined and processed from 1946 until the early 1990's can be found at numerous sites. In the course of the re-unification of Germany, the soviet shares of the WISMUT were taken over by the Federal Republic of Germany and the closure of the WISMUT facilities was initiated. In that phase the extent of the damages to the environment and of the necessary remediation work became clear. All mining and milling sites are now closed and are under decommissioning. A comprehensive remediation concept covers all WISMUT sites. Heaps and mill-tailing ponds are transferred into a long-term stable condition. The area of the facilities to be remediated amounts to more than 30 km 2 . Heaps cover a total area of ca. 15,5 km 2 , tailing ponds in which the tailings resulting from the Uranium production are stored as sludges cover 6,3 km 2 ). In total, the remediation issues are very complex and without precedent. The

  5. Long-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan Wai

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hong Kong's rapidly ageing population, characterised by one of the longest life expectancies and the lowest fertility rate in the world, is likely to drive long-term care (LTC expenditure higher. This study aims to identify key cost drivers and derive quantitative estimates of Hong Kong's LTC expenditure to 2036. Methods We parameterised a macro actuarial simulation with data from official demographic projections, Thematic Household Survey 2004, Hong Kong's Domestic Health Accounts and other routine data from relevant government departments, Hospital Authority and other LTC service providers. Base case results were tested against a wide range of sensitivity assumptions. Results Total projected LTC expenditure as a proportion of GDP reflected secular trends in the elderly dependency ratio, showing a shallow dip between 2004 and 2011, but thereafter yielding a monotonic rise to reach 3.0% by 2036. Demographic changes would have a larger impact than changes in unit costs on overall spending. Different sensitivity scenarios resulted in a wide range of spending estimates from 2.2% to 4.9% of GDP. The availability of informal care and the setting of formal care as well as associated unit costs were important drivers of expenditure. Conclusion The "demographic window" between the present and 2011 is critical in developing policies to cope with the anticipated burgeoning LTC burden, in concert with the related issues of health care financing and retirement planning.

  6. A Long-term Plan for Kalk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    In this case, the author demonstrates together with the owner-manager of KALK A/S, Mr Rasmus Jorgensen, how to use the Family Business Map to frame a constructive discussion about long-term planning. The Family Business Map is a tool for long-term planning in family firms developed by Professor...

  7. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  8. Tendência secular da altura na idade adulta de crianças nascidas na cidade de São Paulo entre 1950 e 1976 Secular trends in the adult height of children born in S. Paulo city, Brazil, from 1950 to 1976

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan França Júnior

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Estimar a tendência/mudança secular das estaturas de jovens do sexo masculino, aos 18 anos de idade, nascidos na cidade de São Paulo, SP, entre 1950 e 1976. MÉTODOS: Foi coletada amostra aleatória e representativa de 6.942 indivíduos avaliados no alistamento militar. A análise estatística compreendeu a avaliação da normalidade da distribuição estatural (teste de Shapiro-Wilk e a análise da tendência pelas técnicas de regressão linear. RESULTADOS/CONCLUSÕES: A distribuição das estaturas foi considerada normal para todas as coortes. O aumento total das estaturas foi de 3,42 centímetros ao longo dos 27 anos do estudo (1,26 cm/década. A tendência no período não foi linear, havendo aumento significativo na década de 50 (0,84 cm/década, aumento não significativo na década de 60 (0,5 cm/década e aumento expressivo no período 1970-76 (2,9 cm/década. O ritmo de mudança secular observado é comparável ao de outros países e estados do Brasil. As coortes mais recentes (1975 e 1976 atingiram a maior estatura (~175 cm; contudo, este valor ainda indica déficits de 1,8 cm e 6,2 cm quando comparado às estaturas de jovens americanos nascidos em 1961 (NCHS e holandeses em 1972. Mantidas as aceleradas taxas de mudança secular da década de 70, os jovens paulistas poderão recuperar estes déficits entre uma a três décadas. Isto indica a necessidade de contínua monitoração da tendência secular das alturas na cidade de São Paulo.OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to estimate the secular trend/change in the height of young males born in the city of S. Paulo between 1950 and 1976 and measured in the year they turn 18 years. METHODS: A random and representative sample (6,942 individuals was evaluated in military draft. Statistical analyses included Shapiro-Wilk test for normality of height distribution in each birth cohort, and linear regression analysis for trend on heights. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: Stature has

  9. Norwegian long-term care: Legacies, trends, and controversies - See more at: http://www.gigapp.org/index.php/component/jresearch/?view=publication&task=show&id=1807#sthash.eCzEqbqK.dpuf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daatland, SveinOlav

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The NorSpaR project aims to analyse the main public policy initiatives by which Norway and Spain cope with the new social and economic challenges derived from the so-called New Social Risks (NSR. Although both countries present significant differences in their institutional settings (such as Spanish EU membership, or its belonging to diverse welfare regimes types (Norway is generally included in the Nordic regime, while Spain is part of the Mediterranean one, both countries share a common interest in addressing the aforementioned challenges while maintaining social cohesion. In the last decade, governments in both countries have tried to respond to those challenges by reforming their labour markets, adapting their unemployment schemes, as well as their gender, family and long-term care policies. The analysis covered in this project includes three areas of public policy addressing NSR. First, dependency is one of the most daunting challenges for post-industrial societies experiencing population ageing and with an increasing number of frail people in need of care. This situation is forcing governments to rethink their long-term care policies. Second, family and gender public programs need to respond to the growing difficulties of families in reconciling professional and family life. Third, in the transition to a post-industrial order, and in a context of mass unemployment, social protection systems have a renewed prominence. Along with the so-called passive policies offering financial support to the unemployed, active labour market policies are geared to put people back into work. In our analysis we try to find answers to the following questions: What are the challenges that each of these policies have been trying to address in recent years? How have these policies evolved? What kinds of reforms have been implemented, and which ones have been neglected? Have the policy goals and targets of welfare programs been modified in any significant way

  10. Long-term outcomes of young people who attempted suicide

    OpenAIRE

    Grisham, Jessica R; Williams, Alishia D

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Suicidal behavior has increased since the onset of the global recession, a trend that may have long-term health and social implications. OBJECTIVE To test whether suicide attempts among young people signal increased risk for later poor health and social functioning above and beyond a preexisting psychiatric disorder. DESIGN We followed up a cohort of young people and assessed multiple aspects of their health and social functioning as they approached midlife. Outcomes among individu...

  11. A new method to detect long term trends of methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O total columns measured within the NDACC ground-based high resolution solar FTIR network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schneider

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Total columns measured with the ground-based solar FTIR technique are highly variable in time due to atmospheric chemistry and dynamics in the atmosphere above the measurement station. In this paper, a multiple regression model with anomalies of air pressure, total columns of hydrogen fluoride (HF and carbon monoxide (CO and tropopause height are used to reduce the variability in the methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O total columns to estimate reliable linear trends with as small uncertainties as possible. The method is developed at the Harestua station (60° N, 11° E, 600 m a.s.l. and used on three other European FTIR stations, i.e. Jungfraujoch (47° N, 8° E, 3600 m a.s.l., Zugspitze (47° N, 11° E, 3000 m a.s.l., and Kiruna (68° N, 20° E, 400 m a.s.l.. Linear CH4 trends between 0.13 ± 0.01-0.25 ± 0.02 % yr−1 were estimated for all stations in the 1996-2009 period. A piecewise model with three separate linear trends, connected at change points, was used to estimate the short term fluctuations in the CH4 total columns. This model shows a growth in 1996–1999 followed by a period of steady state until 2007. From 2007 until 2009 the atmospheric CH4 amount increases between 0.57 ± 0.22–1.15 ± 0.17 % yr−1. Linear N2O trends between 0.19 ± 0.01–0.40 ± 0.02 % yr−1 were estimated for all stations in the 1996-2007 period, here with the strongest trend at Harestua and Kiruna and the lowest at the Alp stations. From the N2O total columns crude tropospheric and stratospheric partial columns were derived, indicating that the observed difference in the N2O trends between the FTIR sites is of stratospheric origin. This agrees well with the N2O measurements by the SMR instrument onboard the Odin satellite showing the highest trends at Harestua, 0.98 ± 0.28 % yr−1, and considerably smaller trends at lower latitudes, 0.27 ± 0.25 % yr−1. The multiple regression model was compared with two other trend methods, the ordinary linear

  12. Long term wet spent nuclear fuel storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-04-01

    The meeting showed that there is continuing confidence in the use of wet storage for spent nuclear fuel and that long-term wet storage of fuel clad in zirconium alloys can be readily achieved. The importance of maintaining good water chemistry has been identified. The long-term wet storage behaviour of sensitized stainless steel clad fuel involves, as yet, some uncertainties. However, great reliance will be placed on long-term wet storage of spent fuel into the future. The following topics were treated to some extent: Oxidation of the external surface of fuel clad, rod consolidation, radiation protection, optimum methods of treating spent fuel storage water, physical radiation effects, and the behaviour of spent fuel assemblies of long-term wet storage conditions. A number of papers on national experience are included

  13. Industrial Foundations as Long-Term Owners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Steen; Poulsen, Thomas; Børsting, Christa Winther

    Short-termism has become a serious concern for corporate governance, and this has inspired a search for institutional arrangements to promote long-term decision-making. In this paper, we call attention to long-term ownership by industrial foundations, which is common in Northern Europe but little...... known in the rest of the world. We use a unique Danish data set to document that industrial foundations are long-term owners that practice long-term governance. We show that foundation ownership is highly stable compared to other ownership structures. Foundation-owned companies replace managers less...... frequently. They have conservative capital structures with low financial leverage. They score higher on an index of long-termism in finance, investment, and employment. They survive longer. Overall, our paper supports the hypothesis that corporate time horizons are influenced by ownership structures...

  14. Coping with PH over the Long Term

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a job, a volunteer commitment, or even a hobby can take a toll on long-term survivors ... people find solace in meditation, faith, humor, writing, hobbies and more. Find an outlet that you enjoy ...

  15. Long term effects of radiation in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tso Chih Ping; Idris Besar

    1984-01-01

    An overview of the long term effects of radiation in man is presented, categorizing into somatic effects, genetic effects and teratogenic effects, and including an indication of the problems that arise in their determination. (author)

  16. Long term liquidity analysis of the firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Gonos

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity control is a very difficult and important function. If the business is not liquid in the long term, it is under threatof bankruptcy, and on the other hand surplus of the cash in hand threaten its future efficiency, because the cash in hand is a sourceof only limited profitability. Long term liquidity is related to the ability of the short term and long term liabilities payment. Articleis trying to point out to the monitoring and analyzing of the long term liquidity in the concrete business, in this case the printing industrycompany. Hereby at the end of the article mentioned monitored and analyzed liquidity is evaluated in the five years time period.

  17. Long Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Long-Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS) is a standardized, primary screening and assessment tool of health status that forms the foundation of the comprehensive...

  18. HLW Long-term Management Technology Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jong Won; Kang, C. H.; Ko, Y. K.

    2010-02-01

    Permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuels from the power generation is considered to be the unique method for the conservation of human being and nature in the present and future. In spite of spent nuclear fuels produced from power generation, based on the recent trends on the gap between supply and demand of energy, the advance on energy price and reduction of carbon dioxide, nuclear energy is expected to play a role continuously in Korea. It means that a new concept of nuclear fuel cycle is needed to solve problems on spent nuclear fuels. The concept of the advanced nuclear fuel cycle including PYRO processing and SFR was presented at the 255th meeting of the Atomic Energy Commission. According to the concept of the advanced nuclear fuel cycle, actinides and long-term fissile nuclides may go out of existence in SFR. And then it is possible to dispose of short term decay wastes without a great risk bearing. Many efforts had been made to develop the KRS for the direct disposal of spent nuclear fuels in the representative geology of Korea. But in the case of the adoption of Advanced nuclear fuel cycle, the disposal of PYRO wastes should be considered. For this, we carried out the Safety Analysis on HLW Disposal Project with 5 sub-projects such as Development of HLW Disposal System, Radwaste Disposal Safety Analysis, Feasibility study on the deep repository condition, A study on the Nuclide Migration and Retardation Using Natural Barrier, and In-situ Study on the Performance of Engineered Barriers

  19. Nutritional deficit and Long Term Potentiation alterations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Petrosino

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present work we examined the ability of prenatally malnourished offspring to produce and maintain long-term potentiation (LTP of the perforant path/dentate granule cell synapse in freely moving rats at 15,30, and 90 days of age. Population spike amplitude (PSA was calculated from dentate field potential recordings prior to and at 15, 30, 60 min. and 3, 5, 18 and 24 h following tetanization of the perforant pathway. All animals of both malnourished and well-nourished diet groups at 15 days of age showed potentiation of PSA measures but the measures obtained from 15-day-old prenatally malnourished animals were significantly less than that of age-matched, well-nourished controls. At 30 days of age, remarkable effect of tetanization was likely observed from PSA measures for this age group followed much the same pattern. At 90 days of age, PSA measures obtained from malnourished animals decreased from pretetanization levels immediately following tetanization. At this age, however, at three hours time recordings, this measure growing up to a level which did not differ significantly from that of the control group. These results indicate that the width of tetanization induced enhancement of dentate granule cell response in preweanling rats (15-day-old animals is signifacantly affected fromgestational protein malnutrition and this trend is kept in animals tested at 30 and 90 days of age. The fact, however, that considerable limitation in LTP generation was gained from prenatally malnourished animals at 90 days of age, implying that dietary rehabilitation starting at birth is an intervention strategy not capable to imbrove the effects of the gestational stress.

  20. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted imag...

  1. Solar cycle and long term variations of mesospheric ice layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Kiliani, Johannes; Baumgarten, Gerd; Fiedler, Jens; Gerding, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes, frequently called `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) or `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC), are considered to be sensitive indicators of long term changes in the middle atmosphere. We present a summary of long term observations from the ground and from satellites and compare with results from the LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model). LIMA nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and thereby the morphology of ice clouds. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this give s negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. As will be shown, these trends originate in the stratosphere. Solar cycle effects are expected in ice layers due to variations in background temperatures and water paper. We will present results from LIMA regarding solar cycle variations and compare with NLC observations at our lidar stations in Kühlungsborn (54°N) and ALOMAR (69°N), and also with satellite measurements.

  2. Characterization of long term field aging of polymer modified bitumen in porous asphalt

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, D. van; Erkens, S.; Leegwater, G.A.

    2012-01-01

    The effect of long term field aging on different types of polymer modified binders used in two-layer porous asphalt is studied using different test methods. Chemical and rheological tests are performed on samples taken from road sections at different moments in time in search of trends in long term

  3. Long-Term Care for People with Development Disabilities: A Critical Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Howard A.; Van Hollen, Valerie

    2000-01-01

    Explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. Reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area.…

  4. Long-term cycles in old Novae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shara, M.M.; Potter, M.; Shara, D.J.

    1989-01-01

    Three of the oldest recovered novae were monitored with a CCD camera almost nightly for six weeks. The cyclic variability reported by Della Valle and Rosino (1987) for Nova Oph 1848 is confirmed. A similar variability is also suggested for Nova Cyg 1876, though this system exhibits more random flickering than Nova Oph. No secular variability is seen in Nova Sge 1783. 12 refs

  5. Long-term trends in U.S. gas transportation: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, June 1992. Gas Research Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lihn, M.L.; Woods, T.J.

    1992-06-01

    The paper summarizes the trends in lower-48 gas transportation in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices

  6. Citizen science based monitoring of Greylag goose (Anser anser in Bavaria (Germany: combining count data and bag data to estimate long-term trends between 1988/89 and 2010/11.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Grauer

    Full Text Available Numbers of large grazing bird (geese, swans, cranes have increased all over Europe, but monitoring these species, e.g. for management purposes, can be time consuming and costly. In Bavaria, sedentary Greylag geese (Anser anser are monitored during the winter by two different citizen-based monitoring schemes: the International Waterbird Census [IWC] and hunting bag statistics. We compared the results of both schemes for the seasons 1988/89 to 2010/11 by analysing annual indices calculated using the software TRends and Indices for Monitoring Data-TRIM.We identified similar, highly significant rates of increase in both data sets for the entire region of Bavaria (IWC 14% [13-15%], bag 13% [12-14%]. Furthermore, in all of the seven Bavarian regions, trends in annual indices of both data sets correlated significantly. The quality of both datasets as indicators of abundances in Greylag geese populations in Bavaria was not undermined by either weaknesses typically associated with citizen based monitoring or problems generally assumed for IWC and bag data. We also show that bag data are, under the German system of collecting bag statistics, a reliable indicator of species' distribution, especially for detecting newly colonized areas. Therefore, wildlife managers may want to consider bag data from citizen science led monitoring programmes as evidence supporting the decision making processes. We also discuss requirements for any bag monitoring schemes being established to monitor trends in species' distribution and abundance.

  7. Tendência secular de crescimento em escolares de Paulínia, São Paulo-Brasil (1979/80 - 1993/94 Secular trends of growth of schoolchildren from Paulínia, São Paulo - Brazil (1979/80 - 1993/94

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Barbieri Marmo

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência secular de altura, peso e da relação peso/altura em escolares de Paulínia, São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1979/80 e 1993/94. MÉTODOS: Medidas antropométricas de peso (P e altura (A e da relação P/A de 1.903 crianças de 6,5 a 12,5 anos (51,5% M e 48,5% F de escolas públicas de Paulínia foram comparadas com dados de estudo anterior realizado na mesma cidade, com intervalo de 15 anos. Calculou-se o incremento por década e alisou-se os dados pela técnica de médias e medianas móveis (3H3H3. RESULTADOS: As médias de altura e peso foram sempre superiores às do estudo anterior, com incrementos positivos. Os incrementos para a altura variaram de 1,13 a 5 cm no sexo masculino e 1,2 a 4,33 cm nas meninas, já para o peso a variação foi de 0,53 a 4,13 kg nos meninos e 0,87 a 3,0 kg nas meninas. Para a relação P/A, as médias dos dois estudos foram muito semelhantes em ambos os sexos. CONCLUSÕES: A tendência secular positiva da estatura e do peso neste período deve-se principalmente ao desenvolvimento econômico, de saneamento básico, de habitação, de educação e na área de saúde ocorrido na cidade de Paulínia. A tendência secular positiva encontrada foi semelhante à observada em países desenvolvidos após a II Guerra Mundial e de outros trabalhos brasileiros.BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the secular trends in height, weight and weight/height of schoolchildren from the city of Paulínia, São Paulo, Brazil between 1979/80 and 1993/94. METHODS: Anthropometric measurements (height, weight and weight/height of 1,903 children (6.5-12.5y; 51.5% M: 48.5% F, from Paulínia public schools were compared with data from a previous study carried out in the same city 15 years earlier. Decade increments were calculated and data was smoothed by the technique of means and medians (3H3H3. RESULTS: Height and weight mean values were always greater than those of the previous study, with positive

  8. Very long-term sequelae of craniopharyngioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Mark; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E; Michiels, Erna M C; van Veelen-Vincent, Marie-Lise C; Dallenga, Alof H G; van den Berge, J Herbert; van Rij, Carolien M; van der Lely, Aart-Jan; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

    2017-06-01

    Studies investigating long-term health conditions in patients with craniopharyngioma are limited by short follow-up durations and generally do not compare long-term health effects according to initial craniopharyngioma treatment approach. In addition, studies comparing long-term health conditions between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma report conflicting results. The objective of this study was to analyse a full spectrum of long-term health effects in patients with craniopharyngioma according to initial treatment approach and age group at craniopharyngioma presentation. Cross-sectional study based on retrospective data. We studied a single-centre cohort of 128 patients with craniopharyngioma treated from 1980 onwards (63 patients with childhood-onset disease). Median follow-up since craniopharyngioma presentation was 13 years (interquartile range: 5-23 years). Initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches included gross total resection ( n  = 25), subtotal resection without radiotherapy ( n  = 44), subtotal resection with radiotherapy ( n  = 25), cyst aspiration without radiotherapy ( n  = 8), and 90 Yttrium brachytherapy ( n  = 21). Pituitary hormone deficiencies (98%), visual disturbances (75%) and obesity (56%) were the most common long-term health conditions observed. Different initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches resulted in similar long-term health effects. Patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma experienced significantly more growth hormone deficiency, diabetes insipidus, panhypopituitarism, morbid obesity, epilepsy and psychiatric conditions compared with patients with adult-onset disease. Recurrence-/progression-free survival was significantly lower after initial craniopharyngioma treatment with cyst aspiration compared with other therapeutic approaches. Survival was similar between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma. Long-term health conditions were comparable after

  9. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1991 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, April 1991. Gas research insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-04-01

    The report summarizes the gas supply and price outlook in the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. Projected U.S. gas production, gas imports, and other sources of gas supply are discussed along with the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in price expectations. The critical uncertainties and issues affecting the gas supply and price outlook are discussed. Appendixes include a comparison of the 1991 and the 1989 projections of gas supply and price trends; and a description of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model

  10. Long-term prisoner in prison isolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina Grudzińska

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-term prisoner belongs to a particular category of people who are imprisoned in prisons. On the one hand in this group are often heavily demoralized people who committed the most serious crimes, on the other hand it is a group of prisoners, who should be well thought out and programmed the impact of rehabilitation. The situation of man trapped for years poses in a complicated situation not only the prisoners, but also the entire prison staff. They have to take care of the fact that the prison isolation did not cause the state in which convicts form itself in learned helplessness and lack of skills for self-planning and decision-making. In addition, planning the rehabilitation impact of long-term prisoners should not be forgotten that these prisoners in the short or the long term will return to the libertarian environment therefore, should prevent any negative effects of long-term imprisonment. This article presents the main issues related to the execution of imprisonment against long-term prisoners. It is an attempt to systematize the knowledge of this category of people living in prison isolation.

  11. Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeon Jin Park

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

  12. Secularism, secular state and religious freedom | Nweke | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The historic separation of the Church and the State, as an immediate product of secularism, informs the reality of secular state, a state without official religion. This paper attempts to understudy the extent to which secularism enhances religious freedom within the frame of secular state. With the tools of phenomenological ...

  13. Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoetzl, H. [GSF-Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit, Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Winkler, R. [GSF-Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit, Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany)

    1994-10-01

    Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration was investigated from 1982 to 1992 at a semi-natural location 10 km north of Munich, southern Germany. For this period the continuous measurement yielded a long-term average of 8.6 Bq.m{sup -3} (arithmetic mean) and 6.9 Bq.m{sup -3} (geometric mean), from which an average annual effective dose of 0.14 mSv due to outdoor radon can be derived. A long-term trend of the radon concentration was not detectable over the whole period of observation. However, by time series analysis, a long-term cyclic pattern was identified with two maxima (1984-1986, 1989-1991) and two minima (1982-1983, 1987-1988). The seasonal pattern is characterized by an autumn maximum and an early summer minimum. On average, the seasonal maximum in October was found to be higher by a factor of 2 than the June minimum. The diurnal variation of the radon concentration shows a maximum in the early morning and a minimum in the afternoon. On average, this maximum is a factor of 2 higher than the minimum. In the long term a seasonal pattern was observed for diurnal variation, with an average diurnal maximum to minimum ratio of 1.5 in winter compared with 3.5 in the summer months. The radon concentration is correlated with a meteorological parameter (stagnation index) which takes into account horizontal and vertical exchange processes and the wash-out of aerosols in the lower atmosphere. (orig.)

  14. Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoetzl, H.; Winkler, R.

    1994-01-01

    Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration was investigated from 1982 to 1992 at a semi-natural location 10 km north of Munich, southern Germany. For this period the continuous measurement yielded a long-term average of 8.6 Bq.m -3 (arithmetic mean) and 6.9 Bq.m -3 (geometric mean), from which an average annual effective dose of 0.14 mSv due to outdoor radon can be derived. A long-term trend of the radon concentration was not detectable over the whole period of observation. However, by time series analysis, a long-term cyclic pattern was identified with two maxima (1984-1986, 1989-1991) and two minima (1982-1983, 1987-1988). The seasonal pattern is characterized by an autumn maximum and an early summer minimum. On average, the seasonal maximum in October was found to be higher by a factor of 2 than the June minimum. The diurnal variation of the radon concentration shows a maximum in the early morning and a minimum in the afternoon. On average, this maximum is a factor of 2 higher than the minimum. In the long term a seasonal pattern was observed for diurnal variation, with an average diurnal maximum to minimum ratio of 1.5 in winter compared with 3.5 in the summer months. The radon concentration is correlated with a meteorological parameter (stagnation index) which takes into account horizontal and vertical exchange processes and the wash-out of aerosols in the lower atmosphere. (orig.)

  15. Long-Term Prognosis of Plantar Fasciitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Liselotte; Krogh, Thøger Persson; Ellingsen, Torkell

    2018-01-01

    , exercise-induced symptoms, bilateral heel pain, fascia thickness, and presence of a heel spur) could predict long-term outcomes, (3) to assess the long-term ultrasound (US) development in the fascia, and (4) to assess whether US-guided corticosteroid injections induce atrophy of the heel fat pad. Study....... The risk was significantly greater for women (P heel...... regardless of symptoms and had no impact on prognosis, and neither did the presence of a heel spur. Only 24% of asymptomatic patients had a normal fascia on US at long-term follow-up. A US-guided corticosteroid injection did not cause atrophy of the heel fat pad. Our observational study did not allow us...

  16. Long-term dependence in exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Karytinos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

  17. Long term planning for wind energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trinick, M.

    1995-01-01

    In a planning system intended to be governed primarily by policies in statutory plans a reasonable horizon for long term planning is 10 years or longer. Because of statutory requirements, developers have no option but to pay due regard to, and take a full part in, long term planning. The paper examines the type of policies which have emerged in the last few years to cater for wind energy development. It canvasses the merits of different types of policies. Finally, it discusses the policy framework which may emerge to cater for development outside NFFO. (Author)

  18. Long-term characteristics of nuclear emulsion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naganawa, N; Kuwabara, K

    2010-01-01

    Long-term characteristics of the nuclear emulsion so called 'OPERA film' used in the neutrino oscillation experiment, OPERA, has been studied for 8 years since its production or refreshing after it. In the results, it turned out to be excellent in sensitivity, amount of random noise, and refreshing characteristics. The retention capacity of latent image of tracks was also studied. The result will open the way to the recycling of 7,000,000 emulsion films which will remain not developed after 5 years of OPERA's run, and other long-term experiments with emulsion.

  19. Long-term characteristics of nuclear emulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naganawa, N.; Kuwabara, K.

    2010-02-01

    Long-term characteristics of the nuclear emulsion so called ``OPERA film'' used in the neutrino oscillation experiment, OPERA, has been studied for 8 years since its production or refreshing after it. In the results, it turned out to be excellent in sensitivity, amount of random noise, and refreshing characteristics. The retention capacity of latent image of tracks was also studied. The result will open the way to the recycling of 7,000,000 emulsion films which will remain not developed after 5 years of OPERA's run, and other long-term experiments with emulsion.

  20. Long-term home care scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette; Jensen, Thomas Sejr

    In several countries, home care is provided for certain citizens living at home. The long-term home care scheduling problem is to generate work plans spanning several days such that a high quality of service is maintained and the overall cost is kept as low as possible. A solution to the problem...... provides detailed information on visits and visit times for each employee on each of the covered days. We propose a branch-and-price algorithm for the long-term home care scheduling problem. The pricing problem generates one-day plans for an employee, and the master problem merges the plans with respect...

  1. Long term storage techniques for 85Kr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, B.A.; Pence, D.T.; Staples, B.A.

    1975-01-01

    As new nuclear fuel reprocessing plants go on stream, the collection of fission product 85 Kr will be required to avoid potential local release problems and long-term atmospheric buildup. Storage of the collected 85 Kr for a period of at least 100 years will be necessary to allow approximately 99.9 percent decay before it is released. A program designed to develop and evaluate proposed methods for long-term storage of 85 Kr is discussed, and the results of a preliminary evaluation of three methods, high pressure steel cylinders, zeolite encapsulation, and clathrate inclusion are presented. (U.S.)

  2. Long-term variability of precipitation in Republic of Macedonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slavov, Nikola; Marinova, Tania; Ristevski, Pece

    2004-01-01

    During the last century a great attention has been spared to the water resources of the territories of different countries in the world. In the last decades investigations were directed towards the long-term variability of precipitation in the basic regions of agricultural production. Among these investigations the results that indicate decreasing of precipitation amounts during the potential crop-growing season are of especially great interest because precipitation decreasing affects harmfully crop production and population feeding. The purpose of the present work is to study the long-term variability of monthly precipitation sums for 5 representative meteorological stations in Republic of Macedonia: Skopje, Bitola, Prilep, Stip and Demir Kapija for the period 1925-2000. The duration and periodicity of precipitation variations are analyzed on the base of 5-years smooth values for different seasons, warm and cold half-year and for year. The tendencies of trend for the period 1925-2000 are found out.(Author)

  3. Archiving Primary Data: Solutions for Long-Term Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, James A; Teplitsky, Céline; Arroyo, Beatriz; Charmantier, Anne; Becker, Peter H; Birkhead, Tim R; Bize, Pierre; Blumstein, Daniel T; Bonenfant, Christophe; Boutin, Stan; Bushuev, Andrey; Cam, Emmanuelle; Cockburn, Andrew; Côté, Steeve D; Coulson, John C; Daunt, Francis; Dingemanse, Niels J; Doligez, Blandine; Drummond, Hugh; Espie, Richard H M; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Frentiu, Francesca; Fitzpatrick, John W; Furness, Robert W; Garant, Dany; Gauthier, Gilles; Grant, Peter R; Griesser, Michael; Gustafsson, Lars; Hansson, Bengt; Harris, Michael P; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellander, Petter; Korpimäki, Erkki; Krebs, Charles J; Lens, Luc; Linnell, John D C; Low, Matthew; McAdam, Andrew; Margalida, Antoni; Merilä, Juha; Møller, Anders P; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Nisbet, Ian C T; van Noordwijk, Arie J; Oro, Daniel; Pärt, Tomas; Pelletier, Fanie; Potti, Jaime; Pujol, Benoit; Réale, Denis; Rockwell, Robert F; Ropert-Coudert, Yan; Roulin, Alexandre; Sedinger, James S; Swenson, Jon E; Thébaud, Christophe; Visser, Marcel E; Wanless, Sarah; Westneat, David F; Wilson, Alastair J; Zedrosser, Andreas

    2015-10-01

    The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Long-term runoff changes in regions of Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miklanek, Pavol; Pekarova; Pavla

    2004-01-01

    Mean annual runoff variability includes both natural and anthropogenic (climate change) impacts. Aim of the paper is to identify the long-term trends and the cyclic runoff components of selected Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000, and of the Danube river for the period 1840-2000. The variability is analysed by the long-term runoff trends of 27 Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000. The stations were included into the Slovak National Climate Program and they are supposed not to be influenced by anthropogenic activities except of possible climate change. Comparison of the monthly runoff series of the 27 rivers allowed us to draw 3 regions with different runoff trends on the territory of Slovakia (constant trend in Northern and Eastern Slovakia, slow decrease in Central Slovakia, and rapid decrease in Southern Slovakia; The identification of different cyclic components of the runoff series is included. The length of the series allows to identify the 22-year cycles as maximum. By means of the longer runoff series of the Danube river it is shown that the more dry periods occurred in the central Europe and Slovakia in mid 19 th century. The longer Danube series were used also to find the longer runoff cycles of about 31 and 46 years. The mean annual temperature in Europe was lower by 0.6 o C in mid 19 th century compared to 1990s. The temperature increase is put down to climate change impact. The driest period shown by Danube runoff series in mid 19 th century occurred before the start of the climate change. Therefore it is probable that the long-term runoff variability has its own dynamics as well. (Author)

  5. Multiculturalism and secularism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lægaard, Sune

    2017-01-01

    . Secularism denotes what such principles imply for the relationship between politics and religion. Such formal understandings provide theoretical frameworks for specifying different conceptions of multiculturalism and secularism and for determining in precisely which respects conflicts might arise......Multiculturalism in a European context increasingly has come to denote a concern with religious minorities. Claims for multicultural accommodation of minorities therefore potentially conflict with secularist requirements of separation of politics and religion. Whether there is a conflict depends...... on the general understandings of multiculturalism and secularism. The paper therefore distinguishes and examines different general understandings. Both multiculturalism and secularism can be understood as sets of policies, or as forms of minority accommodation or views about the relationship between religion...

  6. Experiences of long-term tranquillizer use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skinhoj, K T; Larsson, S; Helweg-Joergensen, S

    2001-01-01

    , the psychodynamic perspective is integrated within a multi-dimensional model that considers biological, cognitive, identity, gender and social learning factors. The analysis reveals the possibility of achieving a detailed understanding of the dynamic processes involved in the development of long-term tranquillizer...

  7. Long-Term Orientation in Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, G.J.; Jonker, C.M.; Verwaart, D.

    2008-01-01

    Trust does not work in the same way across cultures. This paper presents an agent model of behavior in trade across Hofstedes cultural dimension of long-term vs. short-term orientation. The situation is based on a gaming simulation, the Trust and Tracing game. The paper investigates the

  8. Safety of long-term PPI therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reimer, Christina

    2013-01-01

    Proton pump inhibitors have become the mainstay of medical treatment of acid-related disorders. Long-term use is becoming increasingly common, in some cases without a proper indication. A large number of mainly observational studies on a very wide range of possible associations have been publishe...... to a careful evaluation of the indication for PPI treatment....

  9. Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kinsey, B.H.; Hoddinott, J; Alderman, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of pre-school malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects - instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought shocks are used to identify

  10. Financial Incentives in Long-Term Care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.L.H. Bakx (Pieter)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Long-term care (ltc) aims to help individuals to cope with their impairments. In my thesis, I describe ltc financing alternatives and their consequences for the allocation of ltc. This thesis consists of two parts. In the first part, I investigate how alternative ways

  11. Long-term outcomes of patellofemoral arthroplasty.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonbergen, J.P.W. van; Werkman, D.M.; Barnaart, L.F.; Kampen, A. van

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to correlate the long-term survival of patellofemoral arthroplasty with primary diagnosis, age, sex, and body mass index. One hundred eighty-five consecutive Richards type II patellofemoral arthroplasties were performed in 161 patients with isolated patellofemoral

  12. Long-Term Memory and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossland, John

    2011-01-01

    The English National Curriculum Programmes of Study emphasise the importance of knowledge, understanding and skills, and teachers are well versed in structuring learning in those terms. Research outcomes into how long-term memory is stored and retrieved provide support for structuring learning in this way. Four further messages are added to the…

  13. The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    number of years, leading to substantial additional federal spending. For example, the nation could experience a massive earthquake, a nuclear meltdown...budget surpluses remaining after paying down publicly held debt available for redemption . a. For comparison with the current long-term projections, CBO

  14. Long-term effects of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Alexander; Burkart, Werner; Grosche, Bernd; Jung, Thomas; Martignoni, Klaus; Stephan, Guenther

    1997-01-01

    This paper approaches the long-term effects of ionizing radiation considering the common thought that killing of cells is the basis for deterministic effects and that the subtle changes in genetic information are important in the development of radiation-induced cancer, or genetic effects if these changes are induced in germ cells

  15. Pituitary diseases : long-term psychological consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiemensma, Jitske

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, pituitary adenomas can be appropriately treated, but patients continue to report impaired quality of life (QoL) despite long-term remission or cure. In patients with Cushing’s disease, Cushing’s syndrome or acromegaly, doctors should be aware of subtle cognitive impairments and the

  16. The long term stability of lidar calibrations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courtney, Michael; Gayle Nygaard, Nicolai

    Wind lidars are now used extensively for wind resource measurements. One of the requirements for the data to be accepted in support of project financing (so-called ‘banka-bility’) is to demonstrate the long-term stability of lidar cali-brations. Calibration results for six Leosphere WindCube li...

  17. Rebalancing for Long-Term Investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, Joost; Kuiper, Ivo

    2017-01-01

    In this study we show that the rebalance frequency of a multi-asset portfolio has only limited impact on the utility of a long-term passive investor. Although continuous rebalancing is optimal, the loss of a suboptimal strategy corresponds to up to only 30 basis points of the initial wealth of the

  18. Helminth infections among long-term-residents and settled immigrants in Qatar in the decade from 2005 to 2014: temporal trends and varying prevalence among subjects from different regional origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Madi, Marawan A; Behnke, Jerzy M; Boughattas, Sonia; Al-Thani, Asma; Doiphode, Sanjay H; Deshmukh, Anand

    2016-03-16

    Travel and migration from developing regions, where tropical diseases are common, to more developed industrialised nations can contribute to the introduction and subsequent spread of infections. With its rapidly expanding economy, Qatar has attracted vast numbers of immigrant workers in the last two decades, often from countries with poor socio-economic levels. Many used to arrive with patent intestinal parasitic infections. We analysed the prevalence of helminth infections in a dataset of 29,286 records of subjects referred for stool examination at the Hamad Medical Corporation over the course of a decade (2005 to 2014, inclusive). Overall prevalence of combined helminth infections was low (1.86 %) but there were significant temporal trends, age and sex effects and those arising from the region of origin of the subjects. The most common helminths were hookworms (overall prevalence 1.22 %), which accounted for 70.1 % of cases, and therefore patterns for combined helminth infections were largely driven by hookworms. In both cases, and also in Trichuris trichiura and Ascaris lumbricoides, prevalence peaked in 2008, since when prevalence has been steadily falling. Helminth infections were largely concentrated among subjects from five Asian countries (Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan), and there was a highly biased prevalence in favour of male subjects in all cases. Prevalence of all three nematodes peaked in age class 7 (mean age 25.5 years, range = 20-29) and there were significant interactions between region of origin, sex of subjects and prevalence of hookworms. These results offer optimism that prevalence will continue to decline in the years ahead, especially if control is targeted at those most at risk of carrying infections.

  19. Long-term trends in mortality and AIDS-defining events after combination ART initiation among children and adolescents with perinatal HIV infection in 17 middle- and high-income countries in Europe and Thailand: A cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Judd

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Published estimates of mortality and progression to AIDS as children with HIV approach adulthood are limited. We describe rates and risk factors for death and AIDS-defining events in children and adolescents after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART in 17 middle- and high-income countries, including some in Western and Central Europe (W&CE, Eastern Europe (Russia and Ukraine, and Thailand.Children with perinatal HIV aged 6 months of cART death and progression to AIDS were assessed. Of 3,526 children included, 32% were from the United Kingdom or Ireland, 30% from elsewhere in W&CE, 18% from Russia or Ukraine, and 20% from Thailand. At cART initiation, median age was 5.2 (IQR 1.4-9.3 years; 35% of children aged 400 c/mL predicted late death. Predictors of early and late progression to AIDS were similar. Study limitations include incomplete recording of US Centers for Disease Control (CDC disease stage B events and serious adverse events in some countries; events that were distributed over a long time period, and that we lacked power to analyse trends in patterns and causes of death over time.In our study, 3,526 children and adolescents with perinatal HIV infection initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART in countries in Europe and Thailand. We observed that over 40% of deaths occurred ≤6 months after cART initiation. Greater early mortality risk in infants, as compared to older children, and in Russia, Ukraine, or Thailand as compared to W&CE, raises concern. Current severe immune suppression, being underweight, and unsuppressed viral load were associated with a higher risk of death at >6 months after initiation of cART.

  20. Secular trends: 10 and 20-year comparisons of sexual maturation among students. http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2012v14n6p680

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Mateus Farias

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to verify the secular trends of sexual matu­ration of students between 11 and 15 years old, during a period of 10 and 20 years. The sample was composed by 1,002 students aged between 11 and 15 years; 536 boys (12.6±1.3 years old and 466 girls (12.5±1.2 years old who took part in the Ilhabela Mixed-Longitudinal Project on Growth, Development, and Physical Fitness. The students’ assessment period occurred in 1990/91 (initial, 2000/01 (10 years later, and 2009/10 (20 years later. Sexual maturation was analyzed according to the self-assessment method and age at menarche (month and year was collected retrospectively. The statistical analysis used was: one-way ANOVA, and Tukey’s post-hoc test. The level of significance was p<0.01. The onset of menarche in the initial analysis was at: 12.5±1.2 years old; in the 2000/01 group: 12.3±1.0 years old (Δ=-1.6%, and in the 2009/10 group: 12.2±1.0 years old (Δ=-2.4%. Although there was a tendency towards reduction in age at menarche along the periods in­vestigated, differences were not significant. There were significant differences only in genitals (G4, and pubic hair (P3 in boys after 10 and 20 years. In the same period, it did not occur any significant difference in maturational stages for girls. In conclusion, there was no secular trend of secondary sexual characteristics in boys (genital and pubic hair and girls (breast and pubic hair and in age at menarche over 10 and 20 years.

  1. Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB. The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.

  2. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang,