Secular trends in Cherokee cranial morphology: Eastern vs Western bands.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutphin, Rebecca; Ross, Ann H; Jantz, Richard L

2014-01-01

The research objective was to examine if secular trends can be identified for cranial data commissioned by Boas in 1892, specifically for cranial breadth and cranial length of the Eastern and Western band Cherokee who experienced environmental hardships. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the degree of relationship between each of the cranial measures: cranial length, cranial breadth and cephalic index, along with predictor variables (year-of-birth, location, sex, admixture); the model revealed a significant difference for all craniometric variables. Additional regression analysis was performed with smoothing Loess plots to observe cranial length and cranial breadth change over time (year-of-birth) separately for Eastern and Western Cherokee band females and males born between 1783-1874. This revealed the Western and Eastern bands show a decrease in cranial length over time. Eastern band individuals maintain a relatively constant head breadth, while Western Band individuals show a sharp decline beginning around 1860. These findings support negative secular trend occurring for both Cherokee bands where the environment made a detrimental impact; this is especially marked with the Western Cherokee band.

Long-term trends of foF2 independent of geomagnetic activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. D. Danilov

Full Text Available A detailed analysis of the foF2 data at a series of ionospheric stations is performed to reveal long-term trends independent of the long-term changes in geomagnetic activity during the recent decades (nongeomagnetic trends. The method developed by the author and published earlier is used. It is found that the results for 21 out of 23 stations considered agree well and give a relative nongeomagnetic trend of -0.0012 per year (or an absolute nongeomagnetic trend of about -0.012 MHz per year for the period between 1958 and the mid-nineties. The trends derived show no dependence on geomagnetic latitude or local time, a fact confirming their independence of geomagnetic activity. The consideration of the earlier period (1948–1985 for a few stations for which the corresponding data are available provides significantly lower foF2 trends, the difference between the later and earlier periods being a factor of 1.6. This is a strong argument in favor of an anthropogenic nature of the trends derived.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances; mid-latitude ionosphere

Long-term trends in the total electron content

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan; Urbář, Jaroslav; Kozubek, Michal

2017-01-01

Roč. 44, č. 16 (2017), s. 8186-8172 ISSN 0094-8276 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-03909S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : total electron content * long-term trend * solar control Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Climatic research Impact factor: 4.253, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075063/full

Is there an upward long term trend in Danish real house prices?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skak, Morten

2012-01-01

In Denmark, like in other countries, there is no agreement on the fundamental long term path of real house prices and the sustainability of the present price level. The paper presents Danish house price indices and discusses the question of quality correction of the indices. Subsequently, factors...... behind the long term trend in real house prices and its sustainability are discussed. The paper finds an annual real growth trend around 1.5 per cent for Danish single family house prices likely for the coming ten years....

Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of temperature ... CGCM3; HadCM3; modified Mann–Kendall test; statistical analysis; Sutlej basin. ... Water Resources Systems Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 ...

Secular Trends in the Incidence of Dementia in a Multi-Ethnic Community.

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, James M; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Andrews, Howard; Tang, Ming-Xin; Mayeux, Richard

2017-10-03

Determination of secular trends in cognitive aging is important for prioritization of resources, services, and research in aging populations. Prior studies have identified declining dementia incidence associated with changes in cardiovascular risk factors and increased educational attainment. However, few studies have examined these factors in multi-ethnic cohorts. To identify secular trends in the incidence rate of dementia in an elderly population. Participants in this study were drawn from the Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a multi-ethnic cohort study of northern Manhattan residents aged 65 years and older. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine differences in the incidence of dementia in cohorts recruited in 1992 and 1999, with age at dementia or age at last follow-up visit as the "time-to-event" variable. Overall, there was a 41% reduction in the hazard ratio for dementia among participants in the 1999 cohort compared with those in the 1992 cohort, adjusting for age, sex, race, and baseline memory complaints (HR = 0.59). The reduction in incidence was greatest among non-Hispanic Whites and African-Americans and lowest among Hispanic participants (HRs = 0.60, 0.52 and 0.64, respectively), and was associated with increases in level of educational attainment, especially among African-Americans. Reduction in incidence of dementia was also greater among persons 75 years or older than among younger participants (HR = 0.52 versus HR = 0.69). Our results support previous findings that secular trends in dementia incidence are changing, including in aging minority populations.

Secular Trends in the Physical Fitness of American Youth, Young Adults and Army Recruits

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Knapik, Joseph

2004-01-01

This paper reviews the literature and existing databases for information on secular trends in the physical fitness of young Americans and describes changes in fitness during Basic Combat Training (BCT...

Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to 2013. ... African Health Sciences ... respiratory, and digestive system diseases in urban areas and genito-urinary system diseases in rural areas decreased during this period ...

Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Naidoo, M

2011-10-01

Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

Secular Trends in Meal and Snack Patterns among Adolescents from 1999 to 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, Nicole; Story, Mary; Eisenberg, Marla E; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2016-02-01

Linkages between snack patterns, diet, and obesity in adolescents likely depend on the consumption of main meals, how often snacks are prepared away from home, and whether energy-dense, nutrient-poor snack foods and sugary drinks are frequently consumed. Nutrition-based interventions need to be informed by an understanding of how secular changes in the contribution of snacks to dietary intake may be related to changes in meal frequency as well as how these trends differ by sociodemographic characteristics. To examine secular trends from 1999 to 2010 in meal and snack patterns among adolescents. A repeated cross-sectional design was used. Participants from Minneapolis/St Paul, MN, secondary schools completed classroom-administered surveys and food frequency questionnaires in 1999 (n=2,598) and 2010 (n=2,540). Weekly meal frequencies; number of snacks consumed on school and vacation/weekend days; frequent consumption of snacks prepared away from home (≥3 times/week); and daily servings of energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drinks that are commonly consumed at snack occasions. Trends from 1999 to 2010 were examined using inverse probability weighting to control for differences in sociodemographic characteristics in the two samples. Mean frequencies of breakfast and lunch increased modestly in the overall population (both P values snacks consumed on schools days (Psnacks prepared away from home, there was a secular decrease in energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drink consumption (Psnack trends among adolescents suggests the need for targeted efforts to ensure public health messages reach low-income and ethnic/racial minority population subgroups most vulnerable to poor nutrition and the development of obesity. Copyright © 2016 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

20 year long term air quality trends in Israel

Science.gov (United States)

Luria, M.

2017-12-01

The Israeli air monitoring network was established in the mid 1990's with dozens of measuring sites near most populated areas. During these past 20 years the Israel economy has increased significantly. The population grew by 30%, energy consumption and power generation by more than 40% and the number of motor vehicles increased by nearly 50%. Most of the fossil energy is consumed by the electric power industry that has changed immensely during this period. Until the early 2000's the vast majority of the electricity was generated from coal and heavy oil. However, during the last ten years natural gas has gradually becomes the major source for power generation and for most of the heavy industry. In the present study we examined the impact of these economic trends on the major criteria air pollution parameters; O3, NOx, SO2 and PM10. The analyses was based on the long term trend of median value (50th percentile) and the 90th percentile. The results revealed that SO2 levels throughout the country decreased to very low levels, with the 90th percentile near the detection limit. The levels of PM10, that are relatively high compare with other global regions, did not show any trend during the 20 year period. This is consistent with the fact that most particulate matter results from long range transport of dust from the surrounding deserts. The long term trend of NOx indicates a gradual and steady increase at most measuring sites, which is consistent with the increase of fossil fuel consumption. The increase in NOx levels is most likely the cause for the significant increase in O3 levels found at most sites in a few of them to levels that are considered as an environmental hazard.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-05-01

Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Secular trends on traditional ecological knowledge: An analysis of different domains of knowledge among Tsimane' men.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyes-García, Victoria; Luz, Ana C; Gueze, Maximilien; Paneque-Gálvez, Jaime; Macía, Manuel J; Orta-Martínez, Martí; Pino, Joan

2013-10-01

Empirical research provides contradictory evidence of the loss of traditional ecological knowledge across societies. Researchers have argued that culture, methodological differences, and site-specific conditions are responsible for such contradictory evidences. We advance and test a third explanation: the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge systems. Specifically, we test whether different domains of traditional ecological knowledge experience different secular changes and analyze trends in the context of other changes in livelihoods. We use data collected among 651 Tsimane' men (Bolivian Amazon). Our findings indicate that different domains of knowledge follow different secular trends. Among the domains of knowledge analyzed, medicinal and wild edible knowledge appear as the most vulnerable; canoe building and firewood knowledge seem to remain constant across generations; whereas house building knowledge seems to experience a slight secular increase. Our analysis reflects on the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge, highlighting how changes in this knowledge system respond to the particular needs of a society in a given point of time.

Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

2018-06-01

California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term secular change in height, body mass and Tanner-Whitehouse 3 skeletal maturity of Madeira youth, Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Freitas, Duarte; Malina, Robert M; Maia, José; Lefevre, Johan; Stasinopoulos, Mikis; Gouveia, Élvio; Claessens, Albrecht; Thomis, Martine; Lausen, Berthold

2012-05-01

Secular trends in height and weight are reasonably well documented in Europe. Corresponding observations for skeletal maturation are lacking. To assess secular trends in height, body mass and skeletal maturity of Portuguese children and adolescents and to provide updated reference values for skeletal maturity scores (SMSs). Data for 2856 children and adolescents of 4-17 years, 1412 boys and 1444 girls, from The 'Madeira Growth Study' (MGS; 1996-1998) and from the'Healthy Growth of Madeira Children Study' (CRES; 2006) were used. Height and body mass were measured. Skeletal maturity was assessed with the Tanner-Whitehouse 2 and 3 methods. Children from CRES were taller and heavier than peers from MGS. Differences in height reached 5.8 cm in boys and 5.5 cm in girls. RUS SMSs did not differ consistently between surveys boys, while higher RUS scores were observed in CRES girls. Adult RUS SMSs for MGS and CRES combined were attained at 15.8 years in boys and 14.8 years in girls. Corresponding ages for adult Carpal SMSs were 14.4 and 14.0, respectively. The short-term trends for height and mass were not entirely consistent with the trends in RUS and Carpal SMSs and SAs.

Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

2008-01-01

different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

Reconstructing the long-term cosmic ray intensity: linear relations do not work

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Mursula

2003-04-01

Full Text Available It was recently suggested (Lockwood, 2001 that the cosmic ray intensity in the neutron monitor energy range is linearly related to the coronal source flux, and can be reconstructed for the last 130 years using the long-term coronal flux estimated earlier. Moreover, Lockwood (2001 reconstructed the coronal flux for the last 500 years using a similar linear relation between the flux and the concentration of cosmogenic 10 Be isotopes in polar ice. Here we show that the applied linear relations are oversimplified and lead to unphysical results on long time scales. In particular, the cosmic ray intensity reconstructed by Lockwood (2001 for the last 130 years has a steep trend which is considerably larger than the trend estimated from observations during the last 65 years. Accordingly, the reconstructed cosmic ray intensity reaches or even exceeds the local interstellar cosmic ray flux around 1900. We argue that these unphysical results obtained when using linear relations are due to the oversimplified approach which does not take into account the complex and essentially nonlinear nature of long-term cosmic ray modulation in the heliosphere. We also compare the long-term cosmic ray intensity based on a linear treatment with the reconstruction based on a recent physical model which predicts a considerably lower cosmic ray intensity around 1900.Key words. Interplanetary physics (cosmic rays; heliopause and solar wind termination – Geomagnetism and paleomagnetism (time variations, secular and long-term

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Secular trends of body sizes in Korean children and adolescents: from 1965 to 2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Soo Moon

2011-11-01

Full Text Available An anthropometric survey is one of the most important approaches to use when evaluating the health status of children. Secular trends in body sizes, such as height, weight, head circumference, chest circumference, and body mass index showed significant changes over 40 years in Korea. A series of periodic surveys were conducted in 1967, 1975, 1985, 1997, and 2005 by the Korean Pediatric Society and Ministry of Health and Welfare. The quality of data from school health examinations and the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey has improved, so we can use them now as resources for anthropometric analysis. The final height differences between 1965 and 1997 were 4.5 cm both in boys (168.9 cm in 1965; 173.4 cm in 1997 and girls (155.9 cm in 1965; 160.4 cm in 1997. The differences between 1997 and 2005 were 0.9 cm in boys (174.3cm in 2005 and 0.8 cm in girls (161.2 cm in 2005. There was no difference in final height measurements between 2005 and 2010. An increase in body size at earlier teen ages was pronounced during these decades compared to the previous generation; however, little change has been identified more recently. Body size has been increasing, and obesity has become more prevalent. Systems that gather data should be updated in order to cope with these secular trends. In an upcoming era of secular trends that would be in a slow transition, several surveys that include body measurements should be prepared to meet future needs.

Comparison of the long-term trends in stratospheric dynamics of four reanalyses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Kozubek

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Since the long-term trends of different atmospheric parameters have been already studied separately in many papers, this study is focused on the stratospheric wind (zonal and meridional components and temperature over the whole globe at 10 hPa during 1979–2015. We present the trends for the whole winter (October–March, for each individual month of winter and separately for the period before and after the ozone trend turnaround during the mid-1990s. The change of ozone trends has a clear impact on trends in other investigated stratospheric parameters. Four reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-DOE are used for comparison. Every grid point is analysed, not zonal averages. The comparison of trends in meridional wind, which is closely connected with Brewer–Dobson circulation, shows a good agreement for all four reanalyses (main features and amplitudes of the trends in terms of winter averages, but there are some differences in individual months, particularly in trend amplitude. These results could be important for studying dynamics (transport in the whole stratosphere.

Longitudinal and secular trends in adolescent whole-grain consumption, 1999-2004.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess-Champoux, Teri L; Larson, Nicole I; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne R; Hannan, Peter J; Story, Mary T

2010-01-01

The replacement of refined grains in the diet with whole grains may help prevent chronic disease and excess weight gain, but intakes in adolescents are often lower than recommended. This study aimed to examine demographic disparities and 5-y longitudinal and secular trends (1999-2004) in whole-grain intake among 2 cohorts of Minnesota adolescents. Whole-grain intake was examined among 996 adolescent males and 1222 adolescent females who were Project EAT (Eating Among Teens) participants in 1999 and 2004. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine demographic differences in whole-grain intake. Mixed linear regression models were used to estimate 1) longitudinal trends among 2 cohorts of adolescents during developmental transitions and 2) age-matched secular trends between the cohorts at middle adolescence. In 1999, 11% of adolescent males and 13% of adolescent females reported that they consumed more than one daily serving of whole grains. Whole-grain intake was lowest among youth of the Native American and white races and among youth of high socioeconomic status. During the transition from middle to late adolescence, whole-grain intake increased by a mean of 0.14 daily servings among adolescent males and 0.09 daily servings among adolescent females. No significant changes in whole-grain intake were shown among either sex during the transition from early to middle adolescence. Yeast breads, popcorn, and ready-to-eat breakfast cereals were major sources of whole grains in 1999 and 2004. Findings suggest the need to advance efforts that target improvements in the amount of whole-grain foods selected by adolescents.

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE SOLAR WIND PROTON MEASUREMENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J. [Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX (United States); DeForest, Craig E. [Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO (United States)

2016-11-20

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965–2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature ( T {sub p}) and speed ( V {sub p}) and between the proton density ( n {sub p}) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature–speed ( T {sub p}– V {sub p}) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density–speed ( n {sub p}– V {sub p}) relationship is not linear like the T {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship, we perform power-law fits for n {sub p}– V {sub p}. The exponent (steepness in the n {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n {sub p} for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n {sub p} is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n {sub p} variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n {sub p}– V {sub p} exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T {sub p} and V {sub p} data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

Secular spirituality versus secular dualism: Towards postsecular ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The term “secular spirituality” is meant to convey the contemporary phenomenon of spirituality as experienced in different spheres not associated with structured, institutionalised religion. An outline is given of the relation between secular reality (the natural realm) and religious/spiritual reality (the supernatural realm), as it ...

Beyond comparing secularisms: a critique of religio-secularism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, Y.; Zuckerman, P.; Shook, J.R.

2017-01-01

“Religio-secularism” denotes the tendency to understand specific cultural and political conflicts in terms an opposition between religion on the one hand and secularism on the other. Religio-secularism as a cultural-political paradigm tends to obscure the intricacies of political, socioeconomic,

Long-term trends in foF2: A comparison of various methods

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan; Mikhailov, A. V.; Ulich, T.; Bremer, J.; Elias, A. G.; Ortiz de Adler, N.; Jara, V.; Abarca del Rio, R.; Foppiano, A. J.; Ovalle, E.; Danilov, A. D.

2006-01-01

Roč. 68, č. 17 (2006), s. 1854-1870 ISSN 1364-6826 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Ionosphere * foF2 * Long-term trends * Anthropogenic effects Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.448, year: 2006

Long-term trends in the ionosphere and upper atmosphere parameters

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bremer, J.; Alfonsi, L.; Pal, B.; Laštovička, Jan; Mikhailov, A. V.; Rogers, N.

47 /suppl./, 2/3 (2004), s. 1009-1029 ISSN 1593-5213. [Final Meeting COST271 Action. Effects of the upper atmosphere on terrestrial and Earth-space communications (EACOS). Abingdon, 26.08.2004-27.08.2004] R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 271.10 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : long-term trends * ionosphere * upper atmosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.413, year: 2004

Secular trends in salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults, 1997-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Lianlong; Li, Suyun; Zhao, Jinshan; Zhang, Junli; Wang, Liansen; Wang, Kebo

2018-03-01

Salt and soy sauce are the main ways of sodium intake in Chinese dietary. In this study, we used the data of the China Health and Nutrition Surveys to describe the secular trends of salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults from 1997 to 2011. Trends were tested by multiple linear regression models. During the past 14 years, the consumption of sodium, salt and soy sauce intake values decreased significantly across the six study periods (p sauce intake values decreased by 9.0 g/d among men and 7.3 g/d among women. Similar significant trends were observed in all age groups, activity levels and regions (p < .0001).

Long term trending of engineering data for the Hubble Space Telescope

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Ross M.

1993-01-01

A major goal in spacecraft engineering analysis is the detection of component failures before the fact. Trending is the process of monitoring subsystem states to discern unusual behaviors. This involves reducing vast amounts of data about a component or subsystem into a form that helps humans discern underlying patterns and correlations. A long term trending system has been developed for the Hubble Space Telescope. Besides processing the data for 988 distinct telemetry measurements each day, it produces plots of 477 important parameters for the entire 24 hours. Daily updates to the trend files also produce 339 thirty day trend plots each month. The total system combines command procedures to control the execution of the C-based data processing program, user-written FORTRAN routines, and commercial off-the-shelf plotting software. This paper includes a discussion the performance of the trending system and of its limitations.

Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

2018-02-01

In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

Spatial patterns and secular trends in human leishmaniasis incidence in Morocco between 2003 and 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeq, Mina

2016-05-11

Few studies on spatial patterns or secular trends in human leishmanias have been conducted in Morocco. This study aimed to examine spatial patterns and trends associated with the human leishmaniasis incidence rate (HLIR) at the province/prefecture level between 2003 and 2013 in Morocco. Only the available published country data on the HLIR between 2003 and 2013, from the open access files of the Ministry of Health, were used. Secular trends were examined using Kendall's rank correlation. An exploratory spatial data analysis was also conducted to examine the spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association [LISA]), and spatial diffusion at the province/prefecture level. The influence of various covariates (poverty rate, vulnerability rate, population density, and urbanization) on the HLIR was tested via spatial regression (ordinary least squares regression). At the country level, no secular variation was observed. Poisson annual incidence rate estimates were 13 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 12.9-13.1) for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and 0.4 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 0.4-0.5) for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The available data on HLIR were based on combined CL and VL cases, however, as the CL cases totally outnumbered the VL ones, HLIR may be considered as CL incidence rate. At the provincial level, a secular increase in the incidence rate was observed in Al Hoceima (P = 0.008), Taounate (P = 0.04), Larache (P = 0.002), Tétouan (P = 0.0003), Khenifra (P = 0.008), Meknes (P = 0.03), and El Kelaa (P = 0.0007), whereas a secular decrease was observed only in the Chichaoua province (P = 0.006). Even though increased or decreased rate was evident in these provinces, none of them showed clustering of leishmaniasis incidence. Significant spatial clusters of high leishmaniasis incidence were located in the northeastern part of Morocco, while spatial clusters of low leishmaniasis

Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the

Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Morisaki, Naho; Urayama, Kevin Yuji; Yoshii, Keisuke; Subramanian, S V; Yokoya, Susumu

2017-10-01

Japan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s. We observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969-2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan. LBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978-1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=-0.98; women, r=-0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014. Adult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Long-term Trends in Catch Composition from Elasmobranch Derbies in Elkhorn Slough, California

OpenAIRE

Carlisle, Aaron

2007-01-01

Long-term trends in the elasmobranch assemblage of Elkhorn Slough, Monterey Bay, California, were analyzed by documenting species composition and catch per unit effort (CPUE) from 55 sport fishing derbies that occurred during May, June, and July, from 1951 until 1995. The most abundant species (bat ray, Myliobatis californica; shovelnose guitarfish, Rhinobatos productus; and leopard shark, Triakis semifasciata) were also analyzed for size-weight relationships, trends in size class distributio...

Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Olsen, Are; Heinze, Christoph; Bopp, Laurent; Roy, Tilla

2014-01-01

We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO 2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO 2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake, while ocean pCO 2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake. Aside from the western sub-polar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO 2 trends is found when the simulated fields are sub sampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO 2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO 2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970-2011) period, the simulated regional pCO 2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO 2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO 2 growth rates are projected for the sub-polar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO 2 growth rate. Our work

Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerry F. Tjiputra

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011 period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work

Long-term trends from ecosystem research at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest

Science.gov (United States)

John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Christopher Eagar; Gene E. Likens; Thomas G. Siccama; Chris E. Johnson; Timothy J. Fahey; Steven P. Hamburg; Richard T. Holmes; Amey S. Bailey; Donald C. Buso

2007-01-01

Summarizes 52 years of collaborative, long-term research conducted at the Hubbard Brook (NH) Experimental Forest on ecosystem response to disturbances such as air pollution, climate change, forest disturbance, and forest management practices. Also provides explanations of some of the trends and lists references from scientific literature for further reading.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Due Pernille

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates and discusses the consequences of measurement changes introduced in long-term trend analyses. Methods We used Danish data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC study collected in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Analyses were conducted on comparable questionnaire-based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871 from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. Results The prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values Conclusion Fruit consumption among Danish schoolchildren decreased from 1988 to 2002 with an increase since 2002. We suggest that the increase may be attributable to a nation-wide initiative conducted in Denmark since 2001 to increase the intake of fruit and vegetables in the population. Still, the results imply that a substantial proportion of Danish schoolchildren do not meet the nationally recommended daily intake of fruit. Our analyses indicate that the observed trends are not

Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)

Science.gov (United States)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

The Interval Slope Method for Long-Term Forecasting of Stock Price Trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun-xue Nie

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A stock price is a typical but complex type of time series data. We used the effective prediction of long-term time series data to schedule an investment strategy and obtain higher profit. Due to economic, environmental, and other factors, it is very difficult to obtain a precise long-term stock price prediction. The exponentially segmented pattern (ESP is introduced here and used to predict the fluctuation of different stock data over five future prediction intervals. The new feature of stock pricing during the subinterval, named the interval slope, can characterize fluctuations in stock price over specific periods. The cumulative distribution function (CDF of MSE was compared to those of MMSE-BC and SVR. We concluded that the interval slope developed here can capture more complex dynamics of stock price trends. The mean stock price can then be predicted over specific time intervals relatively accurately, in which multiple mean values over time intervals are used to express the time series in the long term. In this way, the prediction of long-term stock price can be more precise and prevent the development of cumulative errors.

Secular variations of radon in metropolitan Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghomshei, M.M.; Slawson, W.F.

1990-01-01

In this paper sampling of radon within the soil from three sites in metropolitan Vancouver is reported. Alpha trace bi-weekly measurements during a period of 4 years show secular variations with a period of 8-15 months. There are low-radon and high-radon episodes enduring several months to a year. Average radon level during the high-radon episodes reaches 5-10 times that of the low-radon periods. During high-radon episodes the high-frequency variations show very high amplitudes. After filtering of the high-frequency fluctuations, the data from different sites demonstrate remarkably similar trends. It is suggested that along with hydrogeological events, stress relaxation in rocks, earthquake, and magma emplacement may contribute to the sources of secular variations of radon. Because of long-term variations, radon level in urban areas should be monitored on a continuous basis. Single measurements, even those integrating radiation over a period of few months, may sample a low-radon episode, and provide a false assurance, or occur during a high-radon episode and give a false alarm

Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Estuarine and Coastal Carbonate Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carstensen, Jacob; Chierici, Melissa; Gustafsson, Bo G.

2018-01-01

Coastal pH and total alkalinity are regulated by a diverse range of local processes superimposed on global trends of warming and ocean acidification, yet few studies have investigated the relative importance of different processes for coastal acidification. We describe long-term (1972...... for a pH decrease of 0.0008year(-1). Accounting for mixing, salinity, and temperature effects on dissociation and solubility constants, the resulting pH decline (0.0040year(-1)) was about twice the ocean trend, emphasizing the effect of nutrient management on primary production and coastal acidification....... Coastal pCO(2) increased similar to 4 times more rapidly than ocean rates, enhancing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Indeed, coastal systems undergo more drastic changes than the ocean and coastal acidification trends are substantially enhanced from nutrient reductions to address coastal eutrophication....

Geomagnetic and ionospheric data analysis over Antarctica: a contribution to the long term trends investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Alfonsi

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the foF2 ionosonde data acquired at mid and high latitudes reveals a general decreasing of the F2 plasma frequency over more than two solar cycles, showing steeper trends over the high latitude stations and, in particular, over Antarctica. A careful analysis of the foF2 hourly data, opportunely catalogued in different levels of magneto-ionospheric conditions, highlights the role of the geomagnetic activity in the secular change of the ionosphere and confirms the latitudinal dependence of the trends. These results suggest interesting relations with some recent findings on the rapid decrease of some important physical and statistical quantities related to the geomagnetic field over the whole globe and mainly in Antarctica. In this paper we discuss the possibility of a connection between the ionospheric trends and a possible imminent geomagnetic reversal or excursion.

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

Science.gov (United States)

Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

2018-01-01

We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loaiciga, Hugo A

2009-01-01

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

Secular trends of salted fish consumption and nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a multi-jurisdiction ecological study in 8 regions from 3 continents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lau, Hiu-Ying; Leung, Chit-Ming; Chan, Yap-Hang; Lee, Anne Wing-Mui; Kwong, Dora Lai-Wan; Lung, Maria Li; Lam, Tai-Hing

2013-01-01

Despite salted fish being a classical risk factor of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC), whether secular trends in salted fish consumption worldwide accounted for changes in NPC rates were unknown. The relationship between vegetable and cigarette consumption to NPC risk worldwide were also largely uncertain. We investigated the longitudinal trends in standardised NPC incidence/mortality rates across 8 regions and their associations with secular trends in salted fish, vegetable and tobacco consumptions. Age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC were obtained from the WHO cancer mortality database and Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Per capita consumption of salted fish, tobacco and vegetables in Hong Kong and 7 countries (China, Finland, Japan, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States) were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO) and Hong Kong Trade and Census Statistics. Pearson correlation and multivariate analysis were performed to examine both crude and adjusted associations. There were markedly decreasing trends of NPC ASIR and ASMR in Hong Kong over the past three decades, which were correlated with corresponding secular changes in salted fish consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years : ASIR = 0.729 (male), 0.674 (female); ASMR = 0.943 (male), 0.622 (female), all p < 0.05 except for female ASMR). However such associations no longer correlated with adjustments for decreasing tobacco and increasing vegetable consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years: ASIR = 2.007 (male), 0.339 (female), ASMR = 0.289 (male), 1.992 (female), all p > 0.05). However, there were no clear or consistent patterns in relations between NPC ASIR and ASMR with salted fish consumption across 7 regions in 3 continents. Our results do not support the notion that changes in salted fish consumption had played an important role in explaining secular trends of NPC rates in Hong

Secular trends of salted fish consumption and nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a multi-jurisdiction ecological study in 8 regions from 3 continents.

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, Hiu-Ying; Leung, Chit-Ming; Chan, Yap-Hang; Lee, Anne Wing-Mui; Kwong, Dora Lai-Wan; Lung, Maria Li; Lam, Tai-Hing

2013-06-19

Despite salted fish being a classical risk factor of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC), whether secular trends in salted fish consumption worldwide accounted for changes in NPC rates were unknown. The relationship between vegetable and cigarette consumption to NPC risk worldwide were also largely uncertain. We investigated the longitudinal trends in standardised NPC incidence/mortality rates across 8 regions and their associations with secular trends in salted fish, vegetable and tobacco consumptions. Age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC were obtained from the WHO cancer mortality database and Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Per capita consumption of salted fish, tobacco and vegetables in Hong Kong and 7 countries (China, Finland, Japan, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States) were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO) and Hong Kong Trade and Census Statistics. Pearson correlation and multivariate analysis were performed to examine both crude and adjusted associations. There were markedly decreasing trends of NPC ASIR and ASMR in Hong Kong over the past three decades, which were correlated with corresponding secular changes in salted fish consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years : ASIR = 0.729 (male), 0.674 (female); ASMR = 0.943 (male), 0.622 (female), all p ASMR). However such associations no longer correlated with adjustments for decreasing tobacco and increasing vegetable consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years: ASIR = 2.007 (male), 0.339 (female), ASMR = 0.289 (male), 1.992 (female), all p > 0.05). However, there were no clear or consistent patterns in relations between NPC ASIR and ASMR with salted fish consumption across 7 regions in 3 continents. Our results do not support the notion that changes in salted fish consumption had played an important role in explaining secular trends of NPC rates in Hong

The National Veteran Sleep Disorder Study: Descriptive Epidemiology and Secular Trends, 2000-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Melannie; Ray, Meredith A; Hébert, James R; Youngstedt, Shawn D; Zhang, Hongmei; Steck, Susan E; Bogan, Richard K; Burch, James B

2016-07-01

A large proportion of individuals affected by sleep disorders are untreated and susceptible to accidents, injuries, long-term sequelae (e.g., risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, psychiatric disorders), and increased mortality risk. Few studies have examined the scope and magnitude of sleep disorder diagnoses in the United States (US) or factors influencing them. Veterans are particularly vulnerable to factors that elicit or exacerbate sleep disorders. This serial cross-sectional study characterized secular trends in diagnosed sleep disorders among veterans seeking care in US Veterans Health Administration facilities over an eleven-year span (FY2000-2010, n = 9,786,778). Electronic medical records from the national Veterans Administration Informatics and Computing Infrastructure database were accessed. Cases were defined using diagnostic codes specified by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine. Age-adjusted annual prevalence was summarized by sex, race, combat exposure, body mass index, and comorbid diagnoses (cardiovascular disease, cancer, mental disorders). Sleep apnea (47%) and insomnia (26%) were the most common diagnoses among patients with any sleep disorder. There was a six-fold relative increase in total sleep disorder prevalence over the study period. Posttraumatic stress disorder, which tripled over the same time period, was associated with the highest prevalence of sleep disorders (16%) among the comorbid conditions evaluated. The results indicate a growing need for integration of sleep disorder management with patient care and health care planning among US veterans. A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1331. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Periodic and secular changes in SS 433

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, G.W.; Newsom, G.H.

1983-01-01

The recent history of SS 433 is reviewed with particular attention being given to the discovery of the periodic phenomena displayed by this object. Several periods ranging from days to months are established as being present in the spectrum of the ''moving'' lines as well as in other aspects of the emission from the object. In addition evidence for secular change in some of the defining parameters of the system is presented. Although these secular changes may eventually prove to be periodic on a rather long time scale, some interpretation of both the periodic and secular phenomena is possible. It is shown that it is possible to interpret all the known periodic phenomena in terms of a processing object responding to the time-varying torques that one would expect in a binary system

Geomagnetic and ionospheric data analysis over Antarctica: a contribution to the long term trends investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Alfonsi

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the foF2 ionosonde data acquired at mid and high latitudes reveals a general decreasing of the F2 plasma frequency over more than two solar cycles, showing steeper trends over the high latitude stations and, in particular, over Antarctica. A careful analysis of the foF2 hourly data, opportunely catalogued in different levels of magneto-ionospheric conditions, highlights the role of the geomagnetic activity in the secular change of the ionosphere and confirms the latitudinal dependence of the trends. These results suggest interesting relations with some recent findings on the rapid decrease of some important physical and statistical quantities related to the geomagnetic field over the whole globe and mainly in Antarctica. In this paper we discuss the possibility of a connection between the ionospheric trends and a possible imminent geomagnetic reversal or excursion.

Decreasing Trend in the Use and Long-Term Use of Benzodiazepines Among Young Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Tähkäpää, Sanna-Mari; Saastamoinen, Leena; Airaksinen, Marja; Tuulio-Henriksson, Annamari; Aalto-Setälä, Terhi; Kurko, Terhi

2018-03-14

Patterns of benzodiazepine (BZD) use and long-term use among young adults are not well known. Our aim was to study trends in BZD use and long-term use among 18-25-year-old young adults by gender and active substance in a nationwide retrospective longitudinal register-based setting. All Finns aged 18-25 years with reimbursed purchases of BZDs in 2006-2014 recorded to the Finnish Prescription Register were included. Annual prevalence rates of BZD use and long-term use among young adults were reported overall, according to gender, drug group (anxiolytic or hypnotic), and active substance. Long-term use of BZDs was defined as purchasing ≥180 Defined Daily Doses (DDDs) in at least two drug purchases during a calendar year. Overall prevalence of BZD use among young adults decreased from 24.0 to 18.8 users per 1000 inhabitants in 2006-2014. Prevalence of long-term use decreased from 5.5 to 3.3 users per 1000 inhabitants. Overall BZD use was higher among females, whereas long-term use was more common among males. Use of anxiolytics was more common than use of hypnotics. Oxazepam, alprazolam, zopiclone, and zolpidem were the most used BZDs, whereas alprazolam and clonazepam were the substances with most long-term use. The use and long-term use of BZDs have decreased annually since 2008 among Finnish young adults. Further research is needed to investigate the reasons behind the decline.

Simulation of long-term dynamic behavior of runaway electrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yulei; Liu Jian; Zhang Ruili; He Yang

2015-01-01

The secular dynamics of runaway electrons in Tokamak electromagnetic field is studied. The radiation effect is added into a relativistic volume-preserving algorithm to gain long-term stability of calculation. The results shows that the method we used is able to reveal the behavior of a runaway electron in configuration space. (author)

Long Term Trend Analysis in the Capital Market – The Case of Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radukić Snežana

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The paper explores the possibility of making investment decisions in emerging markets by using the trend analysis method on a particular example of the capital market in Serbia. The authors, starting from the common features of technical analysis, have analysed the common share index value in the capital market in Serbia, in the Belgrade Stock Exchange - Belexline from 1 March 2006 to 31 March 2009, by the usage of two moving averages method - Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD: an intermediate term of 50 days and a long-term one of 100 days. The above mentioned moving averages identify the establishment of a trend, the cessation of the existing one, a change and an establishment of the new one.

A model for solar constant secular changes

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

In this paper, contrast models for solar active region and global photospheric features are used to reproduce the observed Active Cavity Radiometer and Earth Radiation Budget secular trends in reasonably good fashion. A prediction for the next decade of solar constant variations is made using the model. Secular trends in the solar constant obtained from the present model support the view that the Maunder Minimum may be related to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century.

NAEP 1999 Long-Term Trend Technical Analysis Report: Three Decades of Student Performance. NCES 2005-484

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Nancy L.; McClellan, Catherine A.; Stoeckel, Joan J.

2005-01-01

This report provides an update to the technical analysis procedures documenting the 1996 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) as presented in "The NAEP 1996 Technical Report" (Allen, Carlson, and Zelenak, 1999). It describes how the 1999 long-term trend data were incorporated into the trend analyses. Since no national main…

Factors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll

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C. Beaulieu

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Global climate change is expected to affect the ocean's biological productivity. The most comprehensive information available about the global distribution of contemporary ocean primary productivity is derived from satellite data. Large spatial patchiness and interannual to multidecadal variability in chlorophyll a concentration challenges efforts to distinguish a global, secular trend given satellite records which are limited in duration and continuity. The longest ocean color satellite record comes from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, which failed in December 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS ocean color sensors are beyond their originally planned operational lifetime. Successful retrieval of a quality signal from the current Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS instrument, or successful launch of the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI expected in 2014 will hopefully extend the ocean color time series and increase the potential for detecting trends in ocean productivity in the future. Alternatively, a potential discontinuity in the time series of ocean chlorophyll a, introduced by a change of instrument without overlap and opportunity for cross-calibration, would make trend detection even more challenging. In this paper, we demonstrate that there are a few regions with statistically significant trends over the ten years of SeaWiFS data, but at a global scale the trend is not large enough to be distinguished from noise. We quantify the degree to which red noise (autocorrelation especially challenges trend detection in these observational time series. We further demonstrate how discontinuities in the time series at various points would affect our ability to detect trends in ocean chlorophyll a. We highlight the importance of maintaining continuous, climate-quality satellite data records for climate-change detection and attribution studies.

Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

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C. Kalicinsky

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We present the analysis of annual average OH* temperatures in the mesopause region derived from measurements of the Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS at Wuppertal (51° N, 7° E in the time interval 1988 to 2015. The new study uses a temperature time series which is 7 years longer than that used for the latest analysis regarding the long-term dynamics. This additional observation time leads to a change in characterisation of the observed long-term dynamics. We perform a multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux F10.7 cm (11-year cycle of solar activity and time to describe the temperature evolution. The analysis leads to a linear trend of (−0.089 ± 0.055 K year−1 and a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.2 ± 0.9 K (100 SFU−1 (r2 of fit 0.6. However, one linear trend in combination with the 11-year solar cycle is not sufficient to explain all observed long-term dynamics. In fact, we find a clear trend break in the temperature time series in the middle of 2008. Before this break point there is an explicit negative linear trend of (−0.24 ± 0.07 K year−1, and after 2008 the linear trend turns positive with a value of (0.64 ± 0.33 K year−1. This apparent trend break can also be described using a long periodic oscillation. One possibility is to use the 22-year solar cycle that describes the reversal of the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle. A multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux and the solar polar magnetic field as parameters leads to the regression coefficients Csolar = (5.0 ± 0.7 K (100 SFU−1 and Chale = (1.8 ±  0.5 K (100 µT−1 (r2 = 0.71. The second way of describing the OH* temperature time series is to use the solar radio flux and an oscillation. A least-square fit leads to a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.1 ± 0.8 K (100 SFU−1, a period P  =  (24.8 ± 3.3 years, and

Long-Term Energy Trends – Where Will We Be in 2050?

OpenAIRE

DIAZ-RAINEY, Ivan

2009-01-01

4TH ENERDAY CONFERENCE ON ENERGY ECONOMICS AND TECHNOLOGY, TU DRESDEN APRIL 3RD, 2009 The fourth gathering of the popular ENERDAY Conference was a one day event guided by the giddy-sounding theme of “LONG-TERM ENERGY TRENDS – WHERE WILL WE BE IN 2050?” The event attracted over 90 European experts in energy policy, energy technology and energy economics from academia, regulators, consultancies, and the energy industry itself. The event took place under the umbrella of TU Dres...

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

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S. T. Akhil Raj

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Long-Term Trends in Hematological and Nutritional Status After Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ji-Hyun; Bae, You-Jin; Jun, Kyong-Hwa; Chin, Hyung-Min

2017-08-01

This study investigated long-term trends in hematological and nutritional parameters after gastrectomy for gastric cancer and evaluated the influence of the reconstruction type on these trends. The medical records of 558 patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with standard lymph node dissection for stage I gastric cancer between January 2006 and December 2013 were reviewed. The hematological and nutritional parameters evaluated included hemoglobin, ferritin, vitamin B 12 , total protein, albumin, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and calcium. The patients were followed up for 6 months postoperatively and then annually until death, cancer recurrence, or follow-up loss. In the long term, ferritin and triglyceride gradually decreased after gastrectomy, while the other parameters decreased slightly or were stable. In the comparisons according to reconstruction type, the Roux-en-Y group had the lowest levels of hemoglobin, ferritin, vitamin B12, total protein, albumin, and total cholesterol beginning 6 months postoperatively compared with the Billroth I and II groups. However, only ferritin and vitamin B 12 had significant differences in the 5-year cumulative incidences of deficiency/reduction according to the reconstruction type, whereas albumin, triglyceride, total cholesterol, and calcium did not. Although malabsorption and malnutrition are common in patients after a gastrectomy, most nutritional parameters were stable or decreased slightly in the long-term and were not markedly influenced by the reconstruction type or extent of gastrectomy. Therefore, for more accurate nutritional assessment after gastrectomy, multidirectional monitoring should be considered rather than simply measuring biochemical parameters.

Long-term trends in foF2: their estimating and origin

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan; Yue, X.; Wan, W.

2008-01-01

Roč. 26, č. 3 (2008), s. 593-598 ISSN 0992-7689 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Grant - others:COST(XE) 296; National Science Foundation of China(CN) 40636032; National Science Foundation of China(CN) 40574071; National important Basic Research Project(CN) 2006CB806306 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : ionosphere * long-term trends * geomagnetism and paleomagnetism * Radio Science Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.660, year: 2008 http://www.ann-geophys.net/26/593/2008/

Secular trends in monthly heating and cooling demands in Croatia

Science.gov (United States)

Cvitan, Lidija; Sokol Jurković, Renata

2016-08-01

This paper analyzes long-term heating and cooling trends for five locations in Croatia from 1901 to 2008 to assist in the revision of Croatia's heating and cooling energy policy. Trends in monthly heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) were determined for three related temperature threshold values each and analyzed to provide insight into the influence of desired thermal comfort on the extent of changes in energy consumption. Monthly trends in the corresponding number of heating days (HD) and cooling days (CD) were also analyzed. A basic investigation of HDD, HD, CDD, and CD trends proved to be essential to the development of a complete description of important climate-related conditions that impact energy demands associated with heating and cooling. In a few cases, the dependence of the trends on the implemented temperature thresholds was rather pronounced and was reflected in great spatial and temporal variations in monthly trends. The statistical significance of the detected monthly trends illustrated a diverse range of possible impacts of climate changes on heating and cooling energy consumption both across and within three main climate regions in Croatia (continental, mountainous, and maritime). It is confirmed that the applied monthly scale for analyses is suitable for assessing heating and cooling practices.

Secular decline in male testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin serum levels in Danish population surveys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Anna-Maria; Jensen, Tina K; Juul, Anders

2007-01-01

Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function.......Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function....

Emission allowances -- Long-term price trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lennox, F.H.

1994-01-01

Estimated trends in emission allowance (EA) values have been of interest to all those affected by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 since it became law in 1990. The authors published estimates of the values of EAs in December 1991, and revised their estimate in November 1992. The summary trends of the 1992 estimate is shown here. General estimates such as these are no longer useful. Everyone directly involved in complying with the Act or in buying and selling allowances has developed their own outlook on EA values. Many recent trades have been publicized. The prices from the first auction are also well known. Therefore this article is concerned only with what might happening the long-run. Once Phase 2 compliance is essentially complete and emissions roughly match Emission Allowance allocations of some 9.8 million tons annually, what pressures will there be on prices? What will be the direction of values after Phase 2 is in balance?

Craniofacial Secular Change in Recent Mexican Migrants.

Science.gov (United States)

Spradley, Katherine; Stull, Kyra E; Hefner, Joseph T

2016-01-01

Research by economists suggests that recent Mexican migrants are better educated and have higher socioeconomic status (SES) than previous migrants. Because factors associated with higher SES and improved education can lead to positive secular changes in overall body form, secular changes in the craniofacial complex were analyzed within a recent migrant group from Mexico. The Mexican group represents individuals in the act of migration, not yet influenced by the American environment, and thus can serve as a starting point for future studies of secular change in this population group. The excavation of a historic Hispanic cemetery in Tucson, Arizona, also allows for a comparison between historic Hispanics and recent migrants to explore craniofacial trends over a broad time period, as both groups originate from Mexico. The present research addresses two main questions: (1) Are cranial secular changes evident in recent Mexican migrants? (2) Are historic Hispanics and recent Mexican migrants similar? By studying secular changes within a migrant population group, secular trends may be detected, which will be important for understanding the biological variation of the migrants themselves and will serve as a preliminary investigation of secular change within Mexican migrants. The comparison of a sample of recent Mexican migrants with a historic Hispanic sample, predominantly of Mexican origin, allows us to explore morphological similarities and differences between early and recent Mexicans within the United States. Vault and face size and a total of 82 craniofacial interlandmark distances were used to explore secular changes within the recent Mexican migrants (females, n = 38; males, n = 178) and to explore the morphological similarities between historic Hispanics (females, n = 54; males, n = 58) and recent migrants. Sexes were separated, and multivariate adaptive regression splines and basis splines (quadratic with one knot) were used to assess the direction and magnitude

Secular trends in dietary intake in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Briefel, Ronette R; Johnson, Clifford L

2004-01-01

This review focuses on dietary intake and dietary supplement use among the U.S. population age 1-74 based on four National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys conducted in 1971-74, 1976-80, 1988-94, and 1999-2000. Secular trends in intake of energy, macronutrients, cholesterol, sodium, calcium, iron, folate, zinc, vitamins A and C, fruits, vegetables, and grain products are summarized. During the 30-year period, mean energy intake increased among adults, and changed little among children age 1-19, except for an increase among adolescent females. Factors contributing to increases in energy intake include increases in the percentage of the population eating away from home (particularly at fast-food restaurants), larger portion sizes of foods and beverages, increased consumption of sweetened beverages, changes in snacking habits, and improved dietary methodology. Dietary supplement use increased among adult men and women, decreased among children age 1-5, and was stable for children age 6-11 and adolescents.

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun

2016-05-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0

Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Somsubhra Chattopadhyay

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky. Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous stations demonstrated trends (all positive, averaging 0.01 °C/year in mean annual temperature: Calloway County, Allen County in southern-central Kentucky, and urbanized Jefferson County in northern-central Kentucky. In view of the locations of the stations demonstrating positive trends, similar work in adjacent states will be required to better understand the processes responsible for those trends and to properly place them in their larger context, if any.

Long-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions

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J. Bremer

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected.

The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO₂ content and other greenhouse gases and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995 modifies the estimated mean foE trend.

Long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires in South America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, Y.; Morton, D. C.; Yin, Y. F.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; van der Werf, G.R.; DeFries, R. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2013-01-01

Background: Landscape fires in South America have considerable impacts on ecosystems, air quality and the climate system. We examined long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires for the continent during 2001-2012 using multiple satellite-derived fire

Cadmium-related mortality and long-term secular trends in the cadmium body burden of an environmentally exposed population.

Science.gov (United States)

Nawrot, Tim S; Van Hecke, Etienne; Thijs, Lutgarde; Richart, Tom; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Jin, Yu; Vangronsveld, Jaco; Roels, Harry A; Staessen, Jan A

2008-12-01

Few population studies have reported on the long-term changes in the internal cadmium dose and simultaneously occurring mortality. We monitored blood cadmium (BCd), 24-hr urinary cadmium (UCd), and mortality in an environmentally exposed population. Starting from 1985, we followed BCd (until 2003), UCd (until 1996), and mortality (until 2007) among 476 and 480 subjects, randomly recruited from low- exposure areas (LEA) and high-exposure areas (HEA). The last cadmium-producing plant in the HEA closed in 2002. From 1985-1989 to 1991-1996, BCd decreased by 40.3% and 18.9% in the LEA and HEA, respectively (p fashion without threshold.

Long-term effect of fee-for-service-based reimbursement cuts on processes and outcomes of care for stroke: interrupted time-series study from Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Tung, Yu-Chi; Chang, Guann-Ming; Cheng, Shou-Hsia

2015-01-01

As healthcare spending continues to increase, reimbursement cuts have become 1 type of healthcare reform to contain costs. Little is known about the long-term impact of cuts in reimbursement, especially under a global budget cap with fee-for-service (FFS) reimbursement, on processes and outcomes of care. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts have been implemented since July 2002 in Taiwan. We examined the long-term association of FFS-based reimbursement cuts with trends in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. We analyzed all 411,487 patients with stroke admitted to general acute care hospitals in Taiwan during the period 1997 to 2010 through Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We used a quasi-experimental design with quarterly measures of healthcare utilization and outcomes and used segmented autoregressive integrated moving average models for the analysis. After accounting for secular trends and other confounders, the implementation of the FFS-based reimbursement cuts was associated with trend changes in computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scanning (0.31% per quarter; P=0.013), antiplatelet/anticoagulant use (-0.20% per quarter; Pprocesses and outcomes of care over time. However, the reimbursement cuts from the FFS-based global budget cap are associated with trend changes in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts may have long-term positive and negative associations with stroke care. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide in Japan, 1953-86.

Science.gov (United States)

Motohashi, Y

1991-04-01

The effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide rates in Japan for the periods 1953-72 and 1973-86 were investigated using twelve socioeconomic indicators. Multiple regression analysis showed that the socioeconomic indicators affecting suicide rates were not identical in the two periods. The rates in both sexes in 1953-72 were closely related to unemployment rate and the labour force but between 1973 and 1986, divorce rate and the proportion in tertiary industry were most influential. The changes reflect the socioeconomic changes in industrial structure in Japan in transition from an industrial to a service economy.

Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Tony N.T. [Building Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR (China)

2010-02-15

Past and future trends of human comfort in terms of heat and cold stresses under the local subtropical climates using measured meteorological data as well as predictions from general climate models were investigated. Summer discomfort showed an increasing trend (and winter discomfort a decreasing trend) over the past 41 years from 1968 to 2008. Monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures and moisture content predictions from a general climate model (MIROC3.2-H) were used to determine summer and winter discomfort for future years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). The 92-year (2009-2100) mean cold stress would be reduced from the 41-year (1968-2008) mean value of 8.7 to about three for both emissions scenarios. The 92-year mean heat stress would be 115.9 and 120.6 for B1 and A1B, respectively, representing 31.6% and 36.9% increase over the 1968-2008 long-term average of 88.1. These suggest that the already small winter heating requirement in subtropical Hong Kong would become even more insignificant in future years, whereas the increasing trend of summer discomfort would result in more cooling demand in the built environment. (author)

Elderly and long-term care trends and policy in Taiwan: Challenges and opportunities for health care professionals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsiu-Hung Wang

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to address the trends and policy of elderly and long-term care in Taiwan. In response to the increasing demand of an aging society, healthcare professionals play crucial roles in elderly and long-term care and quality assurance of services. This article focuses on the current situation of elderly health care, demands of long-term care, long-term care policy in Taiwan, draft of the Long-term Care Services Act, and draft of the Long-term Care Insurance Act. After the 10-year long-term care project was proposed by the Taiwan government, the supply of health care services and demand for long-term care have created many challenges and opportunities for innovative health professional development. Challenges consist of low old dependency ratio caused by low birth rate, lack of elderly and long-term care related manpower, services and education reform related to long-term care for the future society, and interprofessional collaboration and team work of long-term care. Opportunities include expanding the roles and the career pathways of healthcare professionals, promoting the concepts of active aging and good quality of life, and developing industrial cooperation related to long-term care services. Under these circumstances, healthcare professonals are actively involved in practice, education and research of long-term care services that ensure elderly and disabled people can live a healthier and better life.

Influence of secular trends and sample size on reference equations for lung function tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Quanjer, P H; Stocks, J; Cole, T J; Hall, G L; Stanojevic, S

2011-03-01

The aim of our study was to determine the contribution of secular trends and sample size to lung function reference equations, and establish the number of local subjects required to validate published reference values. 30 spirometry datasets collected between 1978 and 2009 provided data on healthy, white subjects: 19,291 males and 23,741 females aged 2.5-95 yrs. The best fit for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV(1)/FVC as functions of age, height and sex were derived from the entire dataset using GAMLSS. Mean z-scores were calculated for individual datasets to determine inter-centre differences. This was repeated by subdividing one large dataset (3,683 males and 4,759 females) into 36 smaller subsets (comprising 18-227 individuals) to preclude differences due to population/technique. No secular trends were observed and differences between datasets comprising >1,000 subjects were small (maximum difference in FEV(1) and FVC from overall mean: 0.30- -0.22 z-scores). Subdividing one large dataset into smaller subsets reproduced the above sample size-related differences and revealed that at least 150 males and 150 females would be necessary to validate reference values to avoid spurious differences due to sampling error. Use of local controls to validate reference equations will rarely be practical due to the numbers required. Reference equations derived from large or collated datasets are recommended.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration--data from Australia and the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

McGrath, John; Selten, Jean-Paul; Chant, David

2002-04-01

Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland, Australia n=6630; The Netherlands n=24,474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration. Males and females were assessed separately. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research.

Long-term trends in the northern extratropical ozone laminae with focus on European stations

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan; Križan, Peter; Kozubek, Michal

2014-01-01

Roč. 120, December (2014), s. 88-95 ISSN 1364-6826 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12070; GA ČR GAP209/10/1792 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ozone laminae * long-term trends * atmospheric dynamics Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.474, year: 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682614002119

Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

2015-12-01

Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winds in higher midlatitudes: longitudinal distribution and long-term trends

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kozubek, Michal; Križan, Peter; Laštovička, Jan

2015-01-01

Roč. 15, Feb (2015), s. 2203-2213 ISSN 1680-7316 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792; GA ČR GA15-03909S; GA MŠk LD12070 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : stratospheric dynamics * meridional wind * long-term trend Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 5.114, year: 2015 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/2203/2015/acp-15-2203-2015.html

Long term trends in oral antidiabetic drug use among children and adolescents in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Fazeli Farsani; P. Souverein (Patrick); J.A. Overbeek (Jetty); M.M.J. Van Der Vorst; C.A.J. Knibbe (Catherijne); R.M.C. Herings (Ron); A.C. de Boer (Anton); A.K. Mantel-Teeuwisse (Aukje)

2015-01-01

textabstractAim The aim of the study was to document long term trends in oral antidiabetic drug (OAD) use among children and adolescents in the Netherlands. Methods A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Dutch PHARMO Database Network. All patients younger than 20 years old with at

A Secular Indicator Of the Degree Of Economic Development and Synthetic Evaluation Of Population Well-Being Trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghe Săvoiu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available he specifically multidisciplinary approach employed in the present paper is motivated by the validity of Engel’s sociological laws, the usefulness of the elasticity of the population’s food products demand according to income, the statistical association between the contraction of the share of expenditures for these goods and the expansion of economy development, and the consistent assessment of the trends in population well-being, in keeping with the research of family budgets, focusing on the case of Romania in the last century. The introduction is devoted to the statistical, economic and sociological tools for assessing economic development and the trends in well-being. The first section describes the weighting coefficients in the universe of interpret indexes, and the second presents the methodology relating to a secular instrument of assessing the degree of economic development and the synthetic evaluation of the trends of well-being in Romania, in parallel to a number of maximum and minimum (European and international trends. The results presented, and the discussion caused by the statistical confrontation of that statistical, economic and sociological information, embrace, with the conclusions, the attempt made by the whole of the paper, to round up, by means of this tool, a necessary set of secular or Schumpeterian indicators, harmonized and comparable, of the GDP/capita type, or such as cost of life index, consumer price index, public and external debt, etc.; such already constructed indicators contribute to delineating the historical and macro-behavioural specificity of such an economy in Eastern Europe as that of Romania.

Long term trends in oral antidiabetic drug use among children and adolescents in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fazeli Farsani, S; Souverein, P C; Overbeek, J A; van der Vorst, M M J; Knibbe, C A J; Herings, R M C; de Boer, Anthonius; Mantel-Teeuwisse, A K

AIM: The aim of the study was to document long term trends in oral antidiabetic drug (OAD) use among children and adolescents in the Netherlands. METHODS: A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Dutch PHARMO Database Network. All patients younger than 20 years old with at least one

Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area.

Science.gov (United States)

Botlaguduru, Venkata S V; Kommalapati, Raghava R; Huque, Ziaul

2018-04-19

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (EPA AQS Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990-2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000-2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying NO X emissions, particularly that of lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOC). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), while 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post-2000 could be attributed to NO X emissions reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000-2016, and 0.155�

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Secular trend of menarche in Zagreb (Croatia) adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Veček, Nenad; Veček, Andrea; Zajc Petranović, Matea; Tomas, Zeljka; Arch-Veček, Branka; Skarić-Jurić, Tatjana; Miličić, Jasna

2012-01-01

To study the secular trend of menarche in high-school urban adolescent girls (Zagreb, Croatia) over the last two decades, and to evaluate the possible impact of worsening of socio-economic conditions on age at menarche during the Croatian War of Independence (1991-1995). Three surveys of female adolescents aged 15-19 years: (a) 523 girls interviewed in 1990, (b) 888 girls interviewed in 1997, and (c) 399 girls interviewed in 2010. Self-reported age at menarche (in decimal years) was presented by age groups and year of interview. Differences in mean age at menarche between adolescent age groups as well as between surveys were tested using One-way ANOVA. The mean age at menarche was 12.82 years in 1990, 12.92 years in 1997 and 12.31 years in 2010. It increased by 0.10 years from 1990 to 1997 (p=0.290) and then declined by 0.61 years from 1997 to 2010 (pZagreb adolescents continued to decline significantly from 1990 to 2010 (p<0.001), in spite of a statistically insignificant initial increase between 1990 and 1997. When put in broader context, age at menarche mirrored socio-economic changes in the war period. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Secular Trends in Habitual Physical Activities of Mozambican Children and Adolescents from Maputo City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernanda Karina dos Santos

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Social and economic changes occurring in the last two decades in Mozambique may have induced lifestyle changes among youth. This study aimed to document secular changes in habitual physical activities of Mozambican youth between 1992, 1999 and 2012. A total of 3393 youth (eight–15 years, were measured in three different time periods (1992, 1999, 2012. Habitual physical activity (PA was estimated with a questionnaire, including items related to household chores, sport participation, traditional games and walking activities. Biological maturation was assessed. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA was used to compare mean differences in PA across the years. Significant decreases between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 were observed for boys in household chores, games and walking, and a significant decline between 1999 and 2012 was found in sport participation. Among girls, a significant and consistent decline (1992 > 1999 > 2012 was observed for household chores, a decline between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 for games and walking, and a significant increase between 1992 and 1999 in sport participation. In general, a negative secular trend was found in habitual PA among Mozambican youth. Interventions aimed at increasing PA represent important educational and public health opportunities.

The long-term trend of carbon-14 level in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshikazu Inoue; Tetsuo Iwakura

1993-01-01

The long-term trend of the specific activity of 14 C in terms of dpm/gC from 1942 to 1991 in the natural environment in Japan was obtained as baseline data by analyzing plant components so as to evaluate the collective effective dose. It was deduced that the specific activity of 14 C in plants reflected well that of atmospheric 14 CO 2 . Uniform distribution of the specific activity in plant among species as well as the production places was confirmed. The Suess effect was observed clearly for a period of 10 years from the late 1960's. The 14 C level was at about 13.7 dpm/gC due to cosmic ray production in 1940's, and reached a peak of about 24.5 dpm/gC in 1963 due to nuclear weapons testing and decreased to 15.6 dpm/gC in 1991. Fermented alcohol proved to be a convenient indicator for measuring the annual mean specific activity of 14 C in the atmosphere. (3 figs.)

Long-term trends in California mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations of black carbon and organic aerosol.

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Brian C; Goldstein, Allen H; Harley, Robert A

2015-04-21

A fuel-based approach is used to assess long-term trends (1970-2010) in mobile source emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA, including both primary emissions and secondary formation). The main focus of this analysis is the Los Angeles Basin, where a long record of measurements is available to infer trends in ambient concentrations of BC and organic carbon (OC), with OC used here as a proxy for OA. Mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations have decreased similarly, reflecting the importance of on- and off-road engines as sources of BC and OA in urban areas. In 1970, the on-road sector accounted for ∼90% of total mobile source emissions of BC and OA (primary + secondary). Over time, as on-road engine emissions have been controlled, the relative importance of off-road sources has grown. By 2010, off-road engines were estimated to account for 37 ± 20% and 45 ± 16% of total mobile source contributions to BC and OA, respectively, in the Los Angeles area. This study highlights both the success of efforts to control on-road emission sources, and the importance of considering off-road engine and other VOC source contributions when assessing long-term emission and ambient air quality trends.

The church and the secular: The effect of the post-secular on Christianity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaco Beyers

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Paradigms determine relationships. During the Enlightenment period Emile Durkheim proposed a relationship between the sacred and the profane. Religion, which is concerned with the sacred, was defined in terms of being different from the profane. The profane came to denote the secular. The organic character of religion caused some scholars to predict the end of the church at the hand of modernisation and rationalisation. Some scholars instead envisaged a new form and function of the church. Some scholars anticipated the growth of Christianity. Reality shows that Christianity has not died out but seems to be growing. The new era we are currently in (identified as the postmodern has been described as the post-secular age where a process of re-sacralisation takes place. How will the post-secular influence the church? What will the relationship between the church and the secular be like under a new paradigm? This article suggests that within a postmodern paradigm, the post-secular will emphasise the place of the individual in the church. Fragmentation of society will also be the result of the post-secular. Religiosity in future will have to contend with fundamentalism and civil religion.

Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were......Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt. Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, W. Y.; Lin, W. L.; Xu, X. B.; Tang, J.; Huang, J. Q.; Wu, H.; Zhang, X. C.

2015-11-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The level of tropospheric ozone, particularly in the surface layer, is impacted by emissions of precursors and is subjected to meteorological conditions. Due its importance, the long-term variation trend of baseline ozone is highly needed for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies about the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China, a country with rapid economic growth for recent decades, and many other developing countries. To uncover the long-term characteristics and trends of baseline surface ozone, concentration in western China, measurements at a global baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt. Waliguan) for the period of 1994 to 2013 were analysed in this study, using a modified Mann-Kendall test and the Hilbert-Huang Transform analysis for the trend and periodicity analysis, respectively. Results reveal higher surface ozone during the night and lower during the day at Waliguan, due to mountain-valley breezes. A seasonal maximum in summer was found, which was probably caused by enhanced stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange events and/or by tropospheric photochemistry. Analysis suggests that there is a season-diurnal cycle in the three-dimensional winds on top of Mt. Waliguan. Season-dependent daytime and nighttime ranges of 6 h were determined based on the season-diurnal cycle in the three-dimensional winds and were used to sort subsets of ozone data for trend analysis. Significant increasing trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (1.5-2.7 ppbv 10 a-1) and nighttime (1.3-2.9 ppbv 10 a-1). Autumn and spring revealed the largest increase rates, while summer and winter showed relatively weaker increases. The HHT spectral analysis confirmed the increasing

Evaluating the Long-term Water Cycle Trends at a Global-scale using Satellite and Assimilation Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, H.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Global-scale soil moisture and rainfall products retrieved from remotely sensed and assimilation datasets provide an effective way to monitor near surface soil moisture content and precipitation with sub-daily temporal resolution. In the present study, we employed the concept of the stored precipitation fraction Fp(f) in order to examine the long-term water cycle trends at a global-scale. The analysis was done for Fp(f) trends with the various geophysical aspects such as climate zone, land use classifications, amount of vegetation, and soil properties. Furthermore, we compared a global-scale Fp(f) using different microwave-based satellite soil moisture datasets. The Fp(f) is calculated by utilized surface soil moisture dataset from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, Advanced Scatterometer, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, and precipitation information from Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Global Land Data Assimilation System. Different results from microwave-based soil moisture dataset showed discordant results particularly over arid and highly vegetated regions. The results of this study provide us new insights of the long-term water cycle trends over different land surface areas. Thereby also highlighting the advantages of the recently available GPM and SMAP datasets for the uses in various hydrometeorological applications.

The six year report: Acidification of surface water in Europe and North America. Dose/response relationships and long-term trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skjelkvaale, B L; Newell, A D; Raddum, G; Johannessen, M; Hovind, H; Tjomsland, T; Wathne, B M

1994-12-31

This report discusses The International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Acidification of Rivers and Lakes, which is designed to (1) establish degree and extent of acidification of surface waters, (2) evaluate dose/response relationships and (3) define long-term trends and variations in aquatic chemistry and biota attributable to atmospheric pollution. Data from 200 sites in 14 countries of Europe and North America are available. Dose/response relationships show that the fauna is adapted to different water qualities in different regions, and that critical limits for the fauna must be calculated according to data for the specific region. Long-term trends of water chemistry show decreases in SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} and Ca{sup 2+} at many sites. Nitrate shows no consistent trends. 66 refs., 26 figs., 16 tabs.

Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Weili; He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

2018-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004-2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution.

Identification of long-term trends and seasonality in high-frequency water quality data from the Yangtze River basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan

2018-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004–2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution. PMID:29466354

Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tian, Feng; Fensholt, Rasmus; Verbesselt, Jan

2015-01-01

-sensor NDVI time series by analyzing the co-occurrence between breaks in the NDVI time series and sensor shifts from GIMMS3g (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies 3rd generation), VIP3 (Vegetation Index and Phenology version 3), LTDR4 (Long Term Data Record version 4) and SPOT-VGT (Système Pour l......, potentially introducing uncertainties in NDVI trend analysis. Platform/sensor change from VGT-1 to VGT-2 is found to cause a significant positive break in the SPOT-VGT NDVI time series. Potential artifacts exist in humid, dry-subhumid, semi-arid and hyper-arid regions of GIMMS3g NDVI, whereas no signs...

Post-religional perspective and secular Buddhism: Stephen Batchelor and the post-metaphysical religion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leandro Durazzo

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to present one of the contemporary trends on Buddhism, specially from the last decades in West, for its encounter with the globalized and dynamic context of present societies. This Buddhist trend, the progressive secularization of its traditions and practices, not to mention its increasing acceptance of historical-textual refutation, finds in Stephen Batchelor - a former monk in two different Buddhist traditions, Tibetan and Korean Zen - a catalyzer and a well-known advocate of secular perspective to the contemporary Buddhism. Here we will present the potential dialogue between the Secular Buddhism - besides the secularizing perspectives over orthodox cultural traditions - and the post-religional subject, as proposed by Marià Corbí and the Ecumenical Association of Third World Theologians. For the purposes of this paper we will focus on the modernizing and secular hermeneutics on Dharma practice, as defended by Stephen Batchelor and others.

Secular decline in male testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin serum levels in Danish population surveys

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Anna-Maria; Jensen, Tina Kold; Juul, Anders

2007-01-01

Adverse secular trends in male reproductive health have been reported to be reflected in increased testicular cancer risk and decreased semen quality in more recently born men. These secular trends may also be reflected by changes in Leydig cell function....

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in coastal waters of northern South China Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Lifei; Jia, Xiaoping; Jackson, Donald A

2017-09-01

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10 -5 , both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.

Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

2015-04-01

This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. M. Philandras

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

Secular trends in consultations for asthma in early childhood, the 16 administrative regions of Morocco, 2004-2012.

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Sadeq, Mina; Abouqal, Redouane; ElMarnissi, Abdelilah

2015-09-17

Little is known about asthma trend in Morocco, particularly in early childhood. Furthermore, when dealing with asthma related environmental risk factors in Morocco, decision-making focus is in one region R9, while 16 regions make up the country. This work aims at studying 9-year trends in consultations for asthma in under-5 children in the 16 individual regions with respect to area and age group. Direct method use, based on the only available national data from the open access files of the ministry of health, standardizing data for three age groups (0-11 ; 12-23 and 24-59 months). We compared age-adjusted rates, stratified by area (urban and rural areas) within each region (Wilcoxon's signed ranks test), and between all regions emphasizing on R9. Secular trends are examined (Kendall's rank correlation test). We also compared directly standardized rates as a rate ratio for two study populations (that of R9 and any region with highest rates). We finally compared rates by age group in selected regions. Secular increase in prevalence rates was shown in both urban and rural Morocco, particularly in urban areas of R10, R14, R16 and R5, and in rural areas of R14 and R16. In urban area of R10 (the highest age-adjusted prevalence rates area) the rates showed secular increase from 6.82 at 95 % CI = [6.44 to 7.19] per 1000 childhood population in 2004 to 20.91 at 95 % CI = [20.26 to 21.56] per 1000 childhood population in 2012 (P = 0.001). Rates were higher in urban than rural Morocco, particularly in R8, R9, R10, R14, R15 ; R6 was an exception. Rates in R10 were 1.63 higher than that in R9 in 2004 and rose to be 2.55 higher in 2012 ; rates in urban area of R14, about 3 times lower than that in R9 in 2004, increased to be similar in 2012. The highest-prevalence age group varied according to region and area. The regions that worth decision making attention are the urban areas of R10 (the highest prevalence rates Moroccan area, showing continuous increase), of R9, of R14

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

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Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Prevalent Long-Term Trends of Hypertension in Austria: The Impact of Obesity and Socio-Demography.

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Franziska Großschädl

Full Text Available Globally there are only less long-term-studies on hypertension available to provide reliable estimates and identify risk groups. This study aims to analyse the prevalence and long-term-trend of hypertension in Austria, recognize affected subpopulations and investigate social inequalities.This representative population-based study is based on self-reported data of adults (mean age: 47.7 ± 17.5; n = 178,818 that were taken from five health surveys between 1973 and 2007. An adjustment of self-reported BMI was performed based on a preliminary validation study. Absolute changes (AC and aetiologic fractions (AF were calculated from logistic regressions in order to measure trends. To quantify the extent of social inequality, a relative index of inequality (RII was computed.During the study period the age-standardized hypertension prevalence increased from 1.0% to 18.8%, with a considerable rise from 1991 onwards. There was a positive trend in all subpopulations, with the highest AC among obese women (+50.2% and obese subjects aged 75 years and older (+54.4%, whereas the highest risk was observed among the youngest obese adults (AF: 99.4%. The RII for hypertension was higher for women than men, but in general unstable during the investigation period.Obesity and older age are significant factors for increased morbidity of hypertension. The most undesirable trends occurred in obese women and obese subjects aged 75 years and older. These risk groups should be given special attention when planning hypertension prevention programs. The high increase in the prevalence of hypertension is due to different aspects, e.g. a demographic change and a change in the definition of hypertension. These findings help to understand why hypertension is becoming more common in the Austrian population.

Coping with climate variability and long-term climate trends for Nicaraguan maize-bean farmers (Invited)

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Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.

Eliminating large-scale magnetospheric current perturbations from long-term geomagnetic observatory data

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Pick, L.; Korte, M. C.

2016-12-01

Magnetospheric currents generate the largest external contribution to the geomagnetic field observed on Earth. Of particular importance is the solar-driven effect of the ring current whose fluctuations overlap with internal field secular variation (SV). Recent core field models thus co-estimate this effect but their validity is limited to the last 15 years offering satellite data. We aim at eliminating magnetospheric modulation from the whole geomagnetic observatory record from 1840 onwards in order to obtain clean long-term SV that will enhance core flow and geodynamo studies.The ring current effect takes form of a southward directed external dipole field aligned with the geomagnetic main field axis. Commonly the Dst index (Sugiura, 1964) is used to parametrize temporal variations of this dipole term. Because of baseline instabilities, the alternative RC index was derived from hourly means of 21 stations spanning 1997-2013 (Olsen et al., 2014). We follow their methodology based on annual means from a reduced station set spanning 1960-2010. The absolute level of the variation so determined is "hidden" in the static lithospheric offsets taken as quiet-time means. We tackle this issue by subtracting crustal biases independently calculated for each observatory from an inversion of combined Swarm satellite and observatory data.Our index reproduces the original annual RC index variability with a reasonable offset of -10 nT in the reference time window 2000-2010. Prior to that it depicts a long-term trend consistent with the external dipole term from COV-OBS (Gillet et al., 2013), being the only long-term field model available for comparison. Sharper variations that are better correlated with the Ap index than the COV-OBS solution lend support to the usefulness of our initial modeling approach. Following a detailed sensitivity study of station choice future work will focus on increasing the resolution from annual to hourly means.

Long term trends in PBDE concentrations in gannet (Morus bassanus) eggs from two UK colonies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crosse, John D.; Shore, Richard F.; Jones, Kevin C.; Pereira, M. Glória

2012-01-01

We used the eggs of an avian sentinel, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus), to determine long-term (1977–2007) trends in PBDE contamination in Western Atlantic (Ailsa Craig colony) and North Sea (Bass Rock colony) waters around the UK. BDEs 47, 49, 99, 100, 153, 154 were the most abundant and were found in all eggs. Individual congener and ΣPBDE concentrations in eggs from both colonies increased mainly from the late 1980s, peaked in 1994, and then rapidly declined so that concentrations in 2002 were similar to or lower than those in the 1970s and 1980s. The PBDE congener profile and temporal variation in PBDE concentrations suggests that the Penta-BDE technical formula was the main source of PBDE contamination. However, contributions of heavier BDE congeners to ΣPBDE concentrations have increased over time, suggesting other sources are becoming more important. PBDEs had no measurable effect on egg volume or eggshell index. - Highlights: ► Detailed long-term (1977–2007) PBDE trends are presented in gannet eggs from the UK. ► Temporal trends mirror consumption of PeBDE technical products. ► In recent years the PBDE profile heavier BDEs became increasingly more important. ► BDE35 concentrations decreased linearly throughout the monitoring period. ► ΣPBDE levels in gannet eggs are below levels linked to impaired reproductive output. - PBDE levels in gannet eggs from two UK colonies mirrored patterns of PBDE consumption, but sources other than PeBDE became more prevalent in recent years.

Secular trends in gestational age and birthweight in twins.

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Gielen, M; van Beijsterveldt, C E M; Derom, C; Vlietinck, R; Nijhuis, J G; Zeegers, M P A; Boomsma, D I

2010-09-01

In recent decades, the overall rate of preterm births has increased. The aim of the present study was to examine whether this trend is also seen for multiple gestations. More specifically, we examined if there has been a decrease in gestational age for live born monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins and if there has been a simultaneous change in birthweight. The contributions of fertility treatments and Caesarean sections were taken into consideration. All analyses were carried out in two large European twin cohorts. Cross-sectional study of 6310 live born twin pairs, born between 1964-2007, from the Belgian East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey and 14,712 twin pairs, born between 1990-2006, from the Netherlands Twin Register. Multiple regression analyses were performed with gestational age as outcome variable, and multilevel analysis with birthweight as outcome variable. All analyses were performed with and without adjustment for zygosity, parity, maternal age, mode of conception and delivery and, for the analyses of birthweight, gestational age. Gestational age decreased in a linear fashion from 1964 to 2007 with a decrease of 0.25 days per year in a similar way for MZ and DZ twins. Changes in birthweight depended on gestational age: up to 32 weeks, birthweight decreased and after 32 weeks birthweight increased. The frequency of infertility treatment and Caesarean sections, primiparity and advanced maternal age increased over the years, but none of these factors influenced the secular trends in gestational age and birthweight. The decrease in gestational age and change in birthweight in twins are sources of concern, especially for very preterm twins, for whom birthweight decreased. For twins born after 32 weeks, an increase in birthweight was observed and this is very likely the explanation for the decrease in gestational age.

Secular trends: a ten-year comparison of the amount and type of physical activity and inactivity of random samples of adolescents in the Czech Republic

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Frömel Karel

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An optimal level of physical activity (PA in adolescence influences the level of PA in adulthood. Although PA declines with age have been demonstrated repeatedly, few studies have been carried out on secular trends. The present study assessed levels, types and secular trends of PA and sedentary behaviour of a sample of adolescents in the Czech Republic. Methods The study comprised two cross-sectional cohorts of adolescents ten years apart. The analysis compared data collected through a week-long monitoring of adolescents' PA in 1998-2000 and 2008-2010. Adolescents wore either Yamax SW-701 or Omron HJ-105 pedometer continuously for 7 days (at least 10 hours per day excluding sleeping, hygiene and bathing. They also recorded their number of steps per day, the type and duration of PA and sedentary behaviour (in minutes on record sheets. In total, 902 adolescents (410 boys; 492 girls aged 14-18 were eligible for analysis. Results Overweight and obesity in Czech adolescents participating in this study increased from 5.5% (older cohort, 1998-2000 to 10.4% (younger cohort, 2008-2010. There were no inter-cohort significant changes in the total amount of sedentary behaviour in boys. However in girls, on weekdays, there was a significant increase in the total duration of sedentary behaviour of the younger cohort (2008-2010 compared with the older one (1998-2000. Studying and screen time (television and computer were among the main sedentary behaviours in Czech adolescents. The types of sedentary behaviour also changed: watching TV (1998-2000 was replaced by time spent on computers (2008-2010. The Czech health-related criterion (achieving 11,000 steps per day decreased only in boys from 68% (1998-2000 to 55% (2008-2010. Across both genders, 55%-75% of Czech adolescents met the health-related criterion of recommended steps per day, however less participants in the younger cohort (2008-2010 met this criterion than in the older cohort

The Coming of Secular Buddhism: a Synoptic View

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Winton Higgins

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Secular Buddhism is coalescing today in response to two main factors. First, it rejects the incoherence of Buddhist modernism, a protean formation that accommodates elements as far afield as ancestral Buddhism and psychotherapies claiming the Buddhist brand. Second, it absorbs the cultural influence of modern secularity in the West. Historically understood, secularity has constituted a centuries-long religious development, not a victory of "science" over "religion." Today's secularity marks a further stage in the cultural decline of "enchanted" truth-claims and the intellectual eclipse of metaphysics, especially under the aegis of phenomenology. In Buddhism as in Christianity, secularity brings forth a new humanistic approach to ethical-spiritual life and creative this-worldly practices.

Secular trends in new childhood epidemics: insights from evolutionary medicine.

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Brüne, Martin; Hochberg, Ze'ev

2013-10-21

In the last few decades, pediatric medicine has observed a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hitherto rare illnesses, among which obesity, diabetes, allergies and other autoimmune diseases stand out. In addition, secular trends towards earlier onset of puberty and sexual activity contribute to the psychological problems of youth and adolescents. All this has occurred in spite of the improved health care provision for children, yet traditional concepts of medicine have failed to explain these new "epidemics". A recent conference and science school of the European Society of Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) in Acre, Israel, has taken up this challenge. Experts across disciplines including medicine, anthropology and developmental psychology discussed potential causes of childhood ill-health from an evolutionary point-of-view. Seen from an evolutionary vantage point, the "epidemics" of childhood obesity, diabetes and psychological dysfunction appear, in part, to be related to a mismatch between ancestral adaptations and novel environmental contingencies. These include changing exposures to pathogens, which impact on the function of the immune system, as well as changing patterns of parenting, which influence the timing of puberty and the risk for developing psychopathology.

Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khoshnood, Babak; Loane, Maria; Walle, Hermien de

2015-01-01

STUDY QUESTION: What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy...... for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? METHODS: This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance......-conceptional folic acid supplementation and existence of voluntary folic acid fortification. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: The study was funded by the European Public Health Commission, EUROCAT Joint Action 2011-2013. HD and ML received support from the European Commission DG Sanco during the conduct...

Long-term trends in radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia)

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Lopatin, E. (Univ. of Joensuu (Finland)); Kolstroem, T. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar (Russian Federation)); Spiecker, H. (Univ. of Freiburg (Germany))

2008-07-01

Komi is situated on the eastern boundary of the European part of Russia, in the boreal region where large areas of natural forest still exist. Using radial growth measurements it was possible to attain positive long-term trends of growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) in the Komi Republic. Increases in the radial growth of Siberian spruce in the forest-tundra were 134% and in the northern taiga zone 35% over successive 50-year periods from 1901 to 1950 and from 1951 to 2000. Respectively, in the middle taiga zone a 76% increase in radial growth was found (over 100 years), whilst in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The increase in radial growth of Scots pine in the northern taiga zone was 32%. In the middle taiga zone the radial growth increase in Scots pine was 55% and in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The long-term growth trends of Komi were compared with those in other parts of Europe. (orig.)

How consistent are global long-term satellite LAI products in terms of interannual variability and trend?

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Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.; Fang, H.

2016-12-01

Proper usage of global satellite LAI products requires comprehensive evaluation. To address this issue, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup proposed a four-stage validation hierarchy. During the past decade, great efforts have been made following this validation framework, mainly focused on absolute magnitude, seasonal trajectory, and spatial pattern of those global satellite LAI products. However, interannual variability and trends of global satellite LAI products have been investigated marginally. Targeting on this gap, we made an intercomparison between seven global satellite LAI datasets, including four short-term ones: MODIS C5, MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and three long-term products ones: LAI3g, GLASS, and GLOBMAP. We calculated global annual LAI time series for each dataset, among which we found substantial differences. During the overlapped period (2003 - 2011), MODIS C5, GLASS and GLOBMAP have positive correlation (r > 0.6) between each other, while MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and LAI3g are highly consistent (r > 0.7) in interannual variations. However, the previous three datasets show negative trends, all of which use MODIS C5 reflectance data, whereas the latter four show positive trends, using MODIS C6, SPOT/VGT, ENVISAT/MERIS, and NOAA/AVHRR, respectively. During the pre-MODIS era (1982 - 1999), the three AVHRR-based datasets (LAI3g, GLASS and GLOBMAP) agree well (r > 0.7), yet all of them show oscillation related with NOAA platform changes. In addition, both GLASS and GLOBMAP show clear cut-points around 2000 when they move from AVHRR to MODIS. Such inconsistency is also visible for GEOV1, which uses SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 before and after 2002. We further investigate the map-to-map deviations among these products. This study highlights that continuous sensor calibration and cross calibration are essential to obtain reliable global LAI time series.

Long-term trends of changes in pine and oak foliar nitrogen metabolism in response to chronic nitrogen amendments at Harvard Forest, MA

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Rakesh Minocha; Swathi A. Turlapati; Stephanie Long; William H. McDowell; Subhash C. Minocha

2015-01-01

We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements...

Non-linear development of secular gravitational instability in protoplanetary disks

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Tominaga, Ryosuke T.; Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro; Takahashi, Sanemichi Z.

2018-01-01

We perform non-linear simulation of secular gravitational instability (GI) in protoplanetary disks, which has been proposed as a mechanism of planetesimal and multiple ring formation. Since the timescale of the growth of the secular GI is much longer than the Keplerian rotation period, we develop a new numerical scheme for a long-term calculation utilizing the concept of symplectic integration. With our new scheme, we first investigate the non-linear development of the secular GI in a disk without a pressure gradient in the initial state. We find that the surface density of dust increases by more than a factor of 100 while that of gas does not increase even by a factor of 2, which results in the formation of dust-dominated rings. A line mass of the dust ring tends to be very close to the critical line mass of a self-gravitating isothermal filament. Our results indicate that the non-linear growth of the secular GI provides a powerful mechanism to concentrate the dust. We also find that the dust ring formed via the non-linear growth of the secular GI migrates inward with a low velocity, which is driven by the self-gravity of the ring. We give a semi-analytical expression for the inward migration speed of the dusty ring.

Secularism, secular state and religious freedom | Nweke | Journal of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The historic separation of the Church and the State, as an immediate product of secularism, informs the reality of secular state, a state without official religion. This paper attempts to understudy the extent to which secularism enhances religious freedom within the frame of secular state. With the tools of phenomenological ...

Long-Term Prediction of Satellite Orbit Using Analytical Method

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Jae-Cheol Yoon

1997-12-01

Full Text Available A long-term prediction algorithm of geostationary orbit was developed using the analytical method. The perturbation force models include geopotential upto fifth order and degree and luni-solar gravitation, and solar radiation pressure. All of the perturbation effects were analyzed by secular variations, short-period variations, and long-period variations for equinoctial elements such as the semi-major axis, eccentricity vector, inclination vector, and mean longitude of the satellite. Result of the analytical orbit propagator was compared with that of the cowell orbit propagator for the KOREASAT. The comparison indicated that the analytical solution could predict the semi-major axis with an accuarcy of better than ~35meters over a period of 3 month.

On the role of solar and geomagnetic activity in long-term trends in the atmosphere-ionosphere system

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan

2005-01-01

Roč. 67, č. 1-2 (2005), s. 83-92 ISSN 1364-6826 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK3012103; GA AV ČR IAA3042102 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Long-term trends * Atmosphere * Ionosphere * Solar activity * Geomagnetic activity Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.309, year: 2005

Long- and short-term trends in vessel conditioning of TFTR [Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaMarche, P.H.; Dylla, H.F.; Bell, M.G.

1986-10-01

We have investigated trends in the conditioning of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) vacuum vessel during the May 1984 to April 1985 run period. The initial conditioning of the vessel, consisting of glow discharge cleaning (GDC) and pulse discharge cleaning (PDC) in concert with a 150 0 C vessel bakeout, is necessary to assure plasma operation after atmospheric venting. A long-term conditioning process, ascribed to limiter conditioning, effectively improves operational conditions during the course of the run. Over several thousand high power plasma discharges, the improvement was documented by using standard parameter (fiducial) plasma discharges. Several techniques demonstrated short-term improvements in vessel conditioning during this time period, including: Cr gettering and programming the plasma position relative to the limiter contact area

Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

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Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

Secular trends in height and weight among children and adolescents of the Seychelles, 1956–2006

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Romain Sarah

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Height of individuals has long been considered as a significant index of nutrition and health of a population; still, there is little information regarding the trends of height and weight among developing or transitional countries. We assessed the secular trends in height and weight in children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the Indian Ocean (African region. Methods Height and weight were measured in all students of all schools in four selected school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th grades for the periods 1998–9 (6391 children and 2005–6 (8582 children. Data for 1956–7 was extracted from a previously published report. Results At age 15.5 years, boys/girls were on average 10/13 cm taller and 15/9 kg heavier in 2005–6 than in 1956–7. Height increased in boys/girls by 1.62/0.93 cm/decade between 1956–7 and 1998–9 and by 1.14/1.82 cm/decade between 1998–9 and 2005–6. For weight, the linear increase in boys/girls was 1.38/1.10 kg/decade between 1956–7 and 1998–9 and 2.21/2.50 kg/decade between 1998–9 and 2005–6. Overall, the relative increase in weight between 1956–7 and 2005–6 was 5-fold higher than the relative increase in height. Conclusion Height and weight increased markedly over time in children aged

A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration

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Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia

2015-05-01

In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.

Geomagnetic secular variation in India-regional and local features

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srivastava, B.J.; Abbas, H.

1977-01-01

A study of the secular variation in the geomagnetic elements H, Z, F and D at Colaba (Bombay)-Alibag for the period 1848-1973, has been made. Fifth degree polynomials are fitted to the data of annual mean values of H, Z and F, and third degree to D, and the residuals discussed. The trends are also examined at the six Indian observatories using the data for 1960-1974. The increasing trend of Z at Alibag is found to decrease from about 1937, while that of H and F from 1965 at 20-30 nT/year, it being of the same order at Sabhawala and Hyderabad but smaller at the equatorial stations, particularly for Z component. The westward annual change in D swings eastward again around 1965 at all the Indian stations. This reversal of the secular variation trend in India after 1965 emerges as an important regional feature connected with a southward migration of the dip equator in India from 1968. The secular change in D at Alibag (+0.4'/year) is somewhat anomalous in the sense that it is reduced as compared to Hyderabad and other stations (+1.6'/year), probably due to the local magnetic anomaly of the Deccan lavas, and calls for detailed investigations. (auth.)

Long-term trends in the abundance and community structure of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... increased predation by top predators. Another mechanism contributing to the long-term increase in zooplankton is the observed long-term intensification of coastal upwelling, which could enhance primary and secondary production, and increase advective input of zooplankton populations into the study area and augment ...

Secular change in 13 metabolic phenotypes: A Chinese longitudinal twin study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Shuxia; Pang, Zengchang; Zhang, Dongfeng

in prospective investigations. Based on Chinese twin data collected from Danish-Chinese collaboration research, we perform twin modeling on 13 metabolic phenotypes (total cholesterol; triglyceride; high density lipoprotein (HDL); low density lipoprotein (LDL); urine acid (UA); glucose; weight; body mass index...... fitted to the secular changes in each of the 13 phenotypes with best fitting model selected based on model performance. Age and sex were included as covariates in the models to adjust for their effects on secular trend. Results: Variations in secular change in 3 lipids (total cholesterol; triglyceride...

Metaphysical Concept of Secularization versus Islamic Concept of Secularization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volkan ERTİT

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In early 21st century, the question “Is Turkey becoming secularized contrary to popular belief?” was one of the discussions occupying Turkish public opinion. These discussions led to the encounter of two different concepts of secularization, “theological (Islamic” and "metaphysical", and to put forward different claims using the same concept. Hence, it became evidentwas understood that a discussion was necessary to understand what secularization is and what it is not before starting any debate on Turkey's secularization. That is because the metaphysical discussion that defines secularization as the decline in the social influence of metaphysical realm (religion, religion-like mechanisms, folk religions, superstitious beliefs, etc. is overshadowed by the Islamic definition describing secularization as "irreligiousness" or "non-Islamism". Therefore, discussingTo understand the social transformation in Turkey, this article attempts to explain that metaphysical rather than theological definition of secularization is necessary for understanding the social implications of the process of modernization.

Long-term trends of sulfur deposition in East Asia during 1981-2005

Science.gov (United States)

Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Ohara, Toshimasa; Morino, Yu; Uno, Itsushi; Kurokawa, Jun-ichi; Hara, Hiroshi

2012-11-01

We used a chemical transport model to investigate the long-term trends of sulfur deposition in East Asia during 1981-2005. The model reproduced the observed spatial distributions in East Asia of the rate of wet deposition of non-seasalt sulfate (nss-SO42-), volume-weighted mean concentrations of nss-SO42- in precipitation, precipitation, and concentrations in air of gaseous sulfur dioxide and particulate nss-SO42-. The model also reproduced well observed seasonal variations and long-term trends of wet deposition of nss-SO42- in Japan from 1988 to 2005. The increasing rate of wet deposition of nss-SO42- in Japan during 1991-2005 was demonstrated with 99.9% significance for both observed and modeled data. The annual rate of total (wet + dry) sulfur deposition in Japan increased from 15.6 Gmol S y-1 in 1981-1985 to 23.9 Gmol S y-1 in 2001-2005 in response to both increasing contributions from Chinese emissions and the eruption of Miyakejima volcano in 2000. During that 25-year period, approximately 2.1% of the sulfur from Chinese emissions was deposited in Japan. Over the same period, the rate of deposition of sulfur in East Asia increased gradually from 14.2 mmol S m-2 y-1 to 24.0 mmol S m-2 y-1, and the contribution of emissions from China to total sulfur deposition in East Asia increased from 65% to 77%. The contribution of Miyakejima volcano was 3% during 2001-2005. The increase in the sulfur deposition rate was remarkably high on the North China Plain, around Guangzhou, and south of Chongqing. The rate of increase in East Asia was greatest in winter, although the rate of sulfur deposition was highest in summer. Sulfur flux from China to Japan increased by a factor of 2.5 at altitudes of 0-3000 m from 1981 to 2005.

A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

2010-01-01

This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018. (author)

Secular tolerance? : Anti‐Muslim sentiment in Western Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ribberink, E.C.; Achterberg, P.H.J.; Houtman, D.

2017-01-01

he literature about secularization proposes two distinct explanations of anti-Muslim sentiment in secularized societies. The first theory understands it in terms of religious competition between Muslims and the remaining minority of orthodox Protestants; the second understands it as resulting from

Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

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Arun Kumar Taxak

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

Tendência secular do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo (1976-1998 Secular trends in birth weight in S. Paulo city, Brazil (1976-1998

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Carlos Augusto Monteiro

2000-12-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Resgatar a tendência secular da distribuição do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo, SP, bem como examinar suas possíveis causas, com base em dados coletados por dois inquéritos domiciliares sobre condições de saúde na infância realizados em 1984/85 e em 1995/96, complementados por informações procedentes de levantamento de prontuários de maternidades e por informações do Sistema Estadual de Declarações de Nascidos Vivos. MÉTODOS: Os inquéritos domiciliares estudaram amostras probabilísticas da população infantil de São Paulo com idade inferior a cinco anos (n=1.016 em 1984/85; n=1.280 em 1995/96. O levantamento de prontuários estudou uma amostra probabilística dos partos ocorridos nas maternidades da cidade no ano de 1976 (n=5.734. As declarações de nascidos vivos referem-se às coortes de crianças nascidas na cidade entre 1993 e 1998 (cerca de 200 mil crianças por ano. O estudo da distribuição social do peso ao nascer levou em conta a renda familiar per capita e a escolaridade materna. A estratégia analítica para estudar os determinantes da tendência secular do peso ao nascer empregou modelos hierárquicos de causalidade, análises multivariadas de regressão e procedimentos análogos aos utilizados para calcular riscos atribuíveis populacionais. RESULTADOS/CONCLUSÕES: A distribuição do peso ao nascer na cidade de São Paulo (média de 3.160 g com 8,9% de pesos OBJECTIVE: Data from two household surveys on infant and child health status undertaken in the mid-80s and mid-90s, complemented with previous data collected from maternity hospitals records and more recent data provided by the state system on birth registries, allowed to characterize and analyse secular trends in birth weight in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: The household surveys included random samples of children under 5 years old (n=1,016 children in 1984-85 and n=1,280 children in 1995-96. A random sample of births that

Secular Trends and Latitude Gradients in Sex Ratios at Birth in Czechoslovakia and the Post-Czechoslovakian States

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Victor Grech

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Latitude gradients and secular trends in Europe and North America have been found in the male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births which is expected to be 0.515. Annual national data for Czechoslovakia and the post-Czechoslovakian (Czech Republic and Slovakia countries for male and female live births were obtained from the World Health Organisation and analysed with contingency tables. This study analysed 13,123,538 live births. An overall decreasing trend in M/F was found (p < 00001. No latitude gradient was noted. There was an overall deficit of 15,232 male births based on an M/F of 0.515. M/F is declining in this region, despite well developing economies that have resisted the worldwide slowdown. An interplay of several poorly understood factors is likely.

Black Carbon and Sulfate Aerosols in the Arctic: Long-term Trends, Radiative Impacts, and Source Attributions

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Zhang, R.; Yang, Y.; Smith, S.; Rasch, P. J.

2017-12-01

The Arctic has warmed dramatically in recent decades. As one of the important short-lived climate forcers, aerosols affect the Arctic radiative budget directly by interfering radiation and indirectly by modifying clouds. Light-absorbing particles (e.g., black carbon) in snow/ice can reduce the surface albedo. The direct radiative impact of aerosols on the Arctic climate can be either warming or cooling, depending on their composition and location, which can further alter the poleward heat transport. Anthropogenic emissions, especially, BC and SO2, have changed drastically in low/mid-latitude source regions in the past few decades. Arctic surface observations at some locations show that BC and sulfate aerosols had a decreasing trend in the recent decades. In order to understand the impact of long-term emission changes on aerosols and their radiative effects, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) equipped with an explicit BC and sulfur source-tagging technique to quantify the source-receptor relationships and decadal trends of Arctic sulfate and BC and to identify variations in their atmospheric transport pathways from lower latitudes. The simulation was conducted for 36 years (1979-2014) with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations. To minimize potential biases in modeled large-scale circulations, wind fields in the simulation are nudged toward an atmospheric reanalysis dataset, while atmospheric constituents including water vapor, clouds, and aerosols are allowed to evolve according to the model physics. Both anthropogenic and open fire emissions came from the newly released CMIP6 datasets, which show strong regional trends in BC and SO2 emissions during the simulation time period. Results show that emissions from East Asia and South Asia together have the largest contributions to Arctic sulfate and BC concentrations in the upper troposphere, which have an increasing trend. The strong decrease in emissions from Europe, Russia and

Secular trends in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican school-aged children and adolescents.

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Fernanda Karina dos Santos

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine secular changes in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican children and adolescents between 1992, 1999 and 2012. METHODS: 3374 subjects (1600 boys, 1774 girls, distributed across the three time points (523 subjects in 1992; 1565 in 1999; and 1286 in 2012, were studied. Height and weight were measured, BMI was computed, and WHO cut-points were used to define nutritional status. ANCOVA models were used to compare height, weight and BMI across study years; chi-square was used to determine differences in the nutritional status prevalence across the years. RESULTS: Significant differences for boys were found for height and weight (p2012, and those from 2012 had the highest BMI (1999<2012. In general, similar patterns were observed when mean values were analyzed by age. A positive trend was observed for overweight and obesity prevalences, whereas a negative trend emerged for wasting, stunting-wasting (in boys, and normal-weight (in girls; no clear trend was evident for stunting. CONCLUSION: Significant positive changes in growth and nutritional status were observed among Mozambican youth from 1992 to 2012, which are associated with economic, social and cultural transitional processes, expressing a dual burden in this population, with reduction in malnourished youth in association with an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

XU Jianhua; CHEN Yaning; LI Weihong; DONG Shan

2008-01-01

Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005, the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using thewavelet analysis method and the fractal theory. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) From a large time scale pointof view, i.e. the time scale of 16 (24) years, the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a wholefrom 1958 to 2005. If the time scale is reduced to 8 (23) or 4 (22) years, the annual runoff still displays the basic trendas the large time scale, but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period. 2) The correlation dimension for theannual runoff process is 3.4307, non-integral, which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteris-tics. The correlation dimension is above 3, which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describethe dynamics of the annual runoff process. 3) The Hurst exponent for the first period (1958-1973) is 0.5036, whichequals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos. The Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989) and third (1990-2005) periods are both greater than 0.50, which indicate that the annual runoff processshowed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods. The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indi-cates that the annual runoffwill show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.

Ten-year secular trend of overweight and obesity in school children in south-eastern Poland

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Artur Mazur

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Objective. To examine the trend in prevalence of overweight and obesity in schoolchildren from south-eastern Poland over a 10-year period. Materials and Method. A cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected primary schools. In total, 4,248 children (2,182 boys and 2,066 girls, mean age 10.5±2.4 years, were examined in 1998, and 2,412 children (1,184 boys and 1,228 girls, mean age 10.5±2.3 years in 2008. In each school the entire population was studied. Results. In 2008, the prevalence of overweight in girls was 13.3% and obesity 7.7%, compared to 12.0% and 10.1% in 1998. The decrease in obesity prevalence was statistically significant. In boys, the prevalence of overweight in 2008 was 14.2% and obesity 6.4%, compared to 10.5% and 6.8% in 1998. The increase in overweight prevalence among boys was statistically significant. Conclusions. A trend toward stabilization of the prevalence of overweight and obesity was noted in school children from south-eastern Poland between 1998–2008. The declining prevalence of obesity in girls and increased prevalence of overweight in boys demonstrates that in this age group of children the secular trend is gender dependent.

(Post Secular Discomforts: Religio-Secular Disclosures in the Indian Context

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Goldie Osuri

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The post-secular turn at the intersection of the fields of political philosophy, anthropology, religious, postcolonial and cultural studies has highlighted theological political formations which have informed differential histories of the secular. This essay examines how debates around the secular and the post-secular play out in the Indian context. Some questions that the essay addresses are: What does a reconsideration of the secular, a probing of its discomforts, offer in the Indian context? And what are the limits of a post-secular turn—in the sense of a reconsideration of spiritual belief or theological conventions as a resource for co-existence—if we think through the forms of power generated by this turn?

Secular and seasonal trends of Neospora abortion in California dairy cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Thurmond, M C; Anderson, M L; Blanchard, P C

1995-06-01

This study was undertaken to determine if the proportion of dairy cow abortions attributable to Neospora sp. infection increased or occurred in a seasonal cycle during a 6-yr period. Abortions caused by Neospora sp. were tallied for all fetuses submitted to the Tulare branch of the California Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory between January 1985 and December 1990. Regression analysis of 221 cases of Neospora among 762 fetuses submitted showed a weak increasing secular trend (P = 0.053, r2 = 0.05), with predicted monthly proportions at the beginning and end of the 6 yr of 0.16 and 0.33, respectively. Using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type statistic, comparison of the 12-mo distribution of Neospora sp. cases and a hypothetical distribution of cows at risk of aborting found about 16% of variation in cases was attributable to season (P fall. Results indicate that Neospora sp. abortion in California dairy cows is not new or recently emerging and that seasonally related factors influence some of the risk of abortion. Results suggest that Neospora sp. has contributed to the high dairy cow abortion rate for many years, and that seasonally varying exposures may predispose to transmission or recrudescence of infection.

Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

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D. Hirdman

2010-10-01

Full Text Available As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010, this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m⁻³ yr⁻¹ (for the years 1989–2008 and −1.4±0.8 ng m⁻³ yr⁻¹ (2002–2009 at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m⁻³ yr⁻¹ (1985–2006 and −1.3±1.2 ng m⁻³ yr⁻¹ (1990–2008 respectively, while there is no trend detectable at Barrow.

To reveal the contribution of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2% and sulphate (0.3–5.3% at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the

Comment on “Long-term trends in thermospheric neutral temperatures and density above Millstone Hill” by W. L. Oliver et al

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Laštovička, Jan

2015-01-01

Roč. 120, č. 3 (2015), s. 2347-2349 ISSN 2169-9380 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792; GA ČR GA15-03909S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : ionosphere * thermosphere * long-term trends * drivers of trends Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.318, year: 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JA020864/abstract

Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

Science.gov (United States)

Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.

2018-03-30

Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward

[Secular trends of height among Chinese students aged 17 in 18 ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010].

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yi; Hu, Pei-jin; Zhang, Bing; Ma, Jun

2015-06-18

To analyze the secular trends of height among Chinese students aged 17 in different ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010. A total of 18 Chinese ethnic minorities' students, including Mongolian, Hui, Uygur, Zhuang, Korean, Tibetan, Miao, Buyi, Dong, Bai, Tujia, Hani, Dai, Lisu, Wa, Nakhi, Tu and Qiang as subjects were sampled from the 1985, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health. The heights of 17 years old people by gender in various ethnic minorities were analyzed and compared. From 1985 to 2010, the increments of adult heights increased significantly in many ethnic minorities' boys. In 2010, the average height of boys aged 17 years in each minority group was higher than 162 cm and was higher than 170 cm among boys from Hui, Mongolian and Korean groups. The ethnics with height growth rates of more than 2 cm per decade in boys were Hui (2.64 cm/decade) and Dong (2.05 cm/decade) and the ethnics with height growth rates of more than 1 cm per decade were Korean (1.99 cm/decade), Tibetan (1.90 cm/decade), Hani (1.80 cm/decade) and the other 9 minority groups. The average height of girls aged 17 years in each minority group was higher than 150 cm in 2010. The heights showed an upward trend in 15 minority groups, but with different degrees. The ethnics with height growth rates of more than 1 cm per decade were Hui (1.56 cm/decade) and Korean (1.29 cm/decade). The increments that were significant between 1985 and 2010 were Hui (3.89 cm), Korean (3.23 cm), Dong (2.35 cm) and the other 6 minority groups (Pminority groups during the past 25 years, but there was an obvious disequilibrium among various ethnic minorities. We should pay more attention to the minority groups with poor growth and give them more help. Meanwhile, we should also pay attention to the negative effects of the secular growth trend on those minority groups with fast increasing adult height.

Cohorts based on decade of death: no evidence for secular trends favoring later cohorts in cognitive aging and terminal decline in the AHEAD study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hülür, Gizem; Infurna, Frank J; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2013-03-01

Studies of birth-year cohorts examined over the same age range often report secular trends favoring later-born cohorts, who are cognitively fitter and show less steep cognitive declines than earlier-born cohorts. However, there is initial evidence that those advantages of later-born cohorts do not carry into the last years of life, suggesting that pervasive mortality-related processes minimize differences that were apparent earlier in life. Elaborating this work from an alternative perspective on cohort differences, we compared rates of cognitive aging and terminal decline in episodic memory between cohorts based on the year participants had died, earlier (between 1993 and 1999) or later in historical time (between 2000 and 2010). Specifically, we compared trajectories of cognitive decline in 2 death-year cohorts of participants in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old study that were matched on age at death and education and controlled for a variety of additional covariates. Results revealed little evidence of secular trends favoring later cohorts. To the contrary, the cohort that died in the 2000s showed a less favorable trajectory of age-related memory decline than the cohort that died in the 1990s. In examinations of change in relation to time to death, the cohort dying in the 2000s experienced even steeper terminal declines than the cohort dying in the 1990s. We suggest that secular increases in "manufacturing" survival may exacerbate age- and mortality-related cognitive declines among the oldest old.

85 SECULARISM, SECULAR STATE AND RELIGIOUS FREEDOM ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

finds that, although more feasible within secular states, religious freedom and human rights are possibilities ... and values, nor uses its powers and offices to persecute religion.” According to ... Secularism is in fact an expression of humanism.

Identification of trend in long term precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Narmada river basin (India)

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak

2018-02-01

Precipitation and reference evapotranspiration are key parameters in hydro-meteorological studies and used for agricultural planning, irrigation system design and management. Precipitation and evaporative demand are expected to be alter under climate change and affect the sustainable development. In this article, spatial variability and temporal trend of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were investigated over Narmada river basin (India), a humid tropical climatic region. In the present study, 12 and 28 observatory stations were selected for precipitation and ETo, respectively of 102-years period (1901-2002). A rigorous analysis for trend detection was carried out using non parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR). Sen's slope estimator was used to analyze the rate of change in long term series. Moreover, all the stations of basin exhibit positive trend for annual ETo, while 8% stations indicate significant negative trend for mean annual precipitation, respectively. Change points of annual precipitation were identified around the year 1962 applying Buishand's and Pettit's test. Annual mean precipitation reduced by 9% in upper part while increased maximum by 5% in lower part of the basin due temporal changes. Although annual mean ETo increase by 4-12% in most of the region. Moreover, results of the study are very helpful in planning and development of agricultural water resources.

Comparing long term energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

2001-01-01

Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

Secular Religious Establishment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lægaard, Sune

2013-01-01

Secularism as a political doctrine claims that religion and politics should be separated. The compatibility question is whether secularism can accept some forms of religious establishment in the form of institutional linkages between state and organised religion. I argue that the answer...... to the compatibility question is not obvious and requires a systematic analysis of secularism. Based on a distinction between a general concept and specific conceptions of secularism I offer a general structure for conceptions of secularism that incorporates both a) basic values, e.g. political equality and freedom...

A New View of Long-Term Geomagnetic Field Secular Variation

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Steve P. Lund

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study carries out a statistical analysis of high-resolution PSV records for the last ~70 ka from three different regions of the Earth. We consider directional and intensity variability in each region on time scales of 103-105 years in order to evaluate long-term PSV. We then compare those results with more traditional long-term PSV statistical studies averaged over ~106 years. Three replicate PSV records from one region (subtropical North Atlantic Ocean were averaged at overlapping 3 and 9 ka intervals. Variability in both scalar inclination and declination variability and vector angular dispersion are significant and coherent among the three records. The vector dispersion is relatively low for most of the time but contains two relatively narrow intervals (~30–42 and 60–65 ka of high dispersion. (Vector dispersion in all records was calculated after removing directions with true excursional VGPs, VGPs < 45° N. We have carried out a comparable statistical analysis on two other PSV records from other parts of the Earth (Chile margin; Philippines/Indonesia. The results for these three regions are comparable in their overall style of variability. The scalar directional variability from the Philippines/Indonesia is quite different in detail from the other two regions, as might be expected, but the scalar directional variability between the Western Hemisphere regions is remarkably consistent considering their distance from one another. This may be associated with them being on the same longitude swath and having some coherent dynamo activity occurring along that path. Three magnetic field excursions occur in the study interval. All three excursions are associated with the two highest vector dispersion intervals. Paleointensity records from the three regions were subjected to the same statistical analysis as the directions. These records are all coherent in their pattern of variability. The similarity in paleointensity variability on a global

Long-term trends of men's co-residence with children in England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ursula Henz

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Increasing numbers of childless men as well as fathers with reduced or no contact with their children have sparked concern about an erosion of fatherhood. Although the general trend is undisputed, claims about men's decreasing family involvement lack a sound empirical basis that enables comparisons between countries and sub-groups of society. Objective: This study derives long-term trends in father-child co-residence over the life course in England and Wales, and provides comparisons of these trends by level of education and ethnic origin. Methods: The paper calculates shares of father-child co-residence from the National Statistics Longitudinal Study (LS and the British Labour-Force Surveys (LFS. Results: There has been a decline of father-child co-residence in England and Wales for men in their thirties, an even greater decline for men in their twenties, and a small increase in the shares of father-child co-residence at higher ages. The trends for different educational groups were similar, but men with a degree had particularly low rates of father-child co-residence at younger ages, and relatively high ones at older ages. Neither less-educated men, nor men from Black-Caribbean and Black-African origins showed rates of father-child co-residence as low as one might have expected. Conclusions: The steady decline of father-child co-residence among men born between 1930 and 1979 in England and Wales lends support to claims about an erosion of fatherhood. However, it is unwarranted to generalize findings from other countries about particularly low levels of father-child co-residence among less-educated men to men in England and Wales.

A systematic review of long-term outcomes in ADHD: global publication trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul eHodgkins

2012-01-01

Full Text Available There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least two years in duration were examined. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of publications in 2008. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. This systematic review analysis of publication trends in ADHD LTOs reflects geographically-based interests that change over time.

Nitrogen Dioxide long term trends at mid and high latitudes by means of ground based observations

Science.gov (United States)

Bortoli, D.; Petritoli, A.; Giovanelli, G.; Kostadinov, I.; Ravegnani, F.

2003-04-01

The interactions between mid- and high latitudes atmospheric changes are going to be one of the main issue for the future of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry research. A more detailed study of the ozone trends as well as a wider comprehension of the interactions with lower and higher latitudes are maybe the main arguments to which scientist should address their works in order to build-up a more detailed picture of what scenarios we have to face in the near future. GASCODs type spectrometers (Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences) are installed at the "Ottavio Vittori" research station (44.11N, 10.42E, 2165 m asl) since June 1993, at the Italian Antarctic Station (74.69S, 164.12E) since December 1995 and at the STIL-BAS station (42.42N, 25.63E) since 1999. The instruments measure zenith scattered solar radiation between 407 and 464 nm. Nitrogen dioxide total column is retrieved with DOAS methodology. The seasonal trend of NO2 vc values is reported and it shows the expected behaviour: maximum values during the summer period while the minimum occur in the winter season in both the hemispheres. A typical behaviour of the AMPM ratio at high latitudes is highlight. A Fourier analysis is proposed as a tool to investigate the long-term components of nitrogen dioxide stratospheric amount. Results are presented and the NO2 trend is evidenced and commented. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The author Daniele Bortoli was financially supported by the Subprograma Ciência e Tecnologia do 3° Quadro Comunitário de Apoio. The National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA) and the Quantification and Interpretation of Long-Term UV-Vis Observations of the Stratosphere (QUILT) project supported this research.

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

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Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

2014-01-01

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

Statistical modelling and RCS detrending methods provide similar estimates of long-term trend in radial growth of common beech in north-eastern France

OpenAIRE

Bontemps , Jean-Daniel; Esper , Jan

2011-01-01

International audience; Dendrochronological methods have greatly contributed to the documentation of past long-term trends in forest growth. These methods primarily focus on the high-frequency signals of tree ring chronologies. They require the removal of the ageing trend in tree growth, known as 'standardisation' or 'detrending', as a prerequisite to the estimation of such trends. Because the approach is sequential, it may however absorb part of the low-frequency historical signal. In this s...

Long-term trends in nitrogen isotope composition and nitrogen concentration in brazilian rainforest trees suggest changes in nitrogen cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Hietz, Peter; Dünisch, Oliver; Wanek, Wolfgang

2010-02-15

Direct or indirect anthropogenic effects on ecosystem nitrogen cycles are important components of global change. Recent research has shown that N isotopes in tree rings reflect changes in ecosystem nitrogen sources or cycles and can be used to study past changes. We analyzed trends in two tree species from a remote and pristine tropical rainforest in Brazil, using trees of different ages to distinguish between the effect of tree age and long-term trends. Because sapwood differed from heartwood in delta(15)N and N concentration and N can be translocated between living sapwood cells, long-term trends are best seen in dead heartwood. Heartwood delta(15)N in Spanish cedar (Cedrela odorata) and big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) increased with tree age, and N concentrations increased with age in Cedrela. Controlling for tree age, delta(15)N increased significantly during the past century even when analyzing only heartwood and after removing labile N compounds. In contrast to northern temperate and boreal forests where wood delta(15)N often decreased, the delta(15)N increase in a remote rainforest is unlikely to be a direct signal of changed N deposition. More plausibly, the change in N isotopic composition indicates a more open N cycle, i.e., higher N losses relative to internal N cycling in the forest, which could be the result of changed forest dynamics.

The long term agroecosystem research network - shared research strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Jean L. Steiner; Timothy Strickland; Peter J.A. Kleinman; Kris Havstad; Thomas B. Moorman; M.Susan Moran; Phil Hellman; Ray B. Bryant; David Huggins; Greg McCarty

2016-01-01

While current weather patterns and rapidly accelerated changes in technology often focus attention on short-term trends in agriculture, the fundamental demands on modern agriculture to meet society food, feed, fuel and fiber production while providing the foundation for a healthy environment requires long-term perspective. The Long- Term Agroecoystem Research Network...

Modeling a secular trend by Monte Carlo simulation of height biased migration in a spatial network.

Science.gov (United States)

Groth, Detlef

2017-04-01

, of the whole network increased by up to 0.1 cm per iteration depending on the network model. The general increase in height within the network depended on connectedness and on the amount of height information that was exchanged between neighboring districts. If higher amounts of neighborhood height information were exchanged, the general increase in height within the network was large (strong secular trend). The trend in the homogeneous fishnet like network was lowest, the trend in the random network was highest. Yet, some network properties, such as the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelations of the migration simulation models differed greatly from the natural features observed in Swiss military conscript networks. Autocorrelations of district heights for instance, were much higher in the migration models. Conclusion: This study confirmed that secular height trends can be modeled by preferred migration of tall individuals into network hubs. However, basic network properties of the migration simulation models differed greatly from the natural features observed in Swiss military conscripts. Similar network-based data from other countries should be explored to better investigate height trends with Monte Carlo migration approach.

Long-term atmospheric visibility trend in Southeast China, 1973-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Junjun; Du, Ke; Wang, Kai; Yuan, Chung-Shin; Zhao, Juanjuan

2012-11-01

Particulate matter (PM) pollution in Southeast China has been worsening because of the rapid industrial development and urbanization, which have significant negative effects on atmospheric visibility. Characterization of the trend in atmospheric visibility is important for evaluating the impact of PM pollution on the impairment of visual air quality in urban and rural areas. Long-term trend in atmospheric visibility in Southeast China was analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 based on the meteorological data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database using four statistical methods: annual mean visibility, percentages of “very good” visibility and “bad” visibility, ridit analysis, and cumulative percentiles. The relationship of atmospheric extinction with Air Pollution Index (API) was studied. In addition, the effects of recent environment policies on visibility were studied. The results showed that the visibility had decreased in 94% stations of this region and prefecture stations had the highest decreasing trend of -3.1 km/decade during the entire period. The average visibility of all the 17 stations (i.e., region-average) declined at a rate of -2.0 km/decade, with a 38-year average of 18.1 km. Decrease in the percentage of “very good” visibility and increase in the percentage of “bad” visibility existed in 14 and 16 stations, respectively. Region-average percentage of “bad” visibility was in the range of 2.2-21.5%, with an increasing rate of 5.0% per decade, and that of “very good” visibility was 24.4-71.8%, with a decreasing rate of -10.7% per decade. During the entire period, county and prefecture stations had similar changing patterns and trends in visibility, while town stations had the least worsening trends. Region-average visibility was better before 1988 while worse after 1993 when comparing to the entire period, with the transition period of 1988-1993. The worst 20%, 50% and best 20% of region-average visibility

THEORY OF SECULAR CHAOS AND MERCURY'S ORBIT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lithwick, Yoram; Wu Yanqin

2011-01-01

We study the chaotic orbital evolution of planetary systems, focusing on secular (i.e., orbit-averaged) interactions, which dominate on long timescales. We first focus on the evolution of a test particle that is forced by multiple planets. To linear order in eccentricity and inclination, its orbit precesses with constant frequencies. But nonlinearities modify the frequencies, and can shift them into and out of resonance with either the planets' eigenfrequencies (forming eccentricity or inclination secular resonances), or with linear combinations of those frequencies (forming mixed high-order secular resonances). The overlap of these nonlinear secular resonances drives secular chaos. We calculate the locations and widths of nonlinear secular resonances, display them together on a newly developed map (the 'map of the mean momenta'), and find good agreement between analytical and numerical results. This map also graphically demonstrates how chaos emerges from overlapping secular resonances. We then apply this newfound understanding to Mercury to elucidate the origin of its orbital chaos. We find that since Mercury's two free precession frequencies (in eccentricity and inclination) lie within ∼25% of two other eigenfrequencies in the solar system (those of the Jupiter-dominated eccentricity mode and the Venus-dominated inclination mode), secular resonances involving these four modes overlap and cause Mercury's chaos. We confirm this with N-body integrations by showing that a slew of these resonant angles alternately librate and circulate. Our new analytical understanding allows us to calculate the criterion for Mercury to become chaotic: Jupiter and Venus must have eccentricity and inclination of a few percent. The timescale for Mercury's chaotic diffusion depends sensitively on the forcing. As it is, Mercury appears to be perched on the threshold for chaos, with an instability timescale comparable to the lifetime of the solar system.

Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Steiber, Nadia

2015-01-01

This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

SECULAR CHAOS AND THE PRODUCTION OF HOT JUPITERS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Yanqin; Lithwick, Yoram

2011-01-01

In a planetary system with two or more well-spaced, eccentric, inclined planets, secular interactions may lead to chaos. The innermost planet may gradually become very eccentric and/or inclined as a result of the secular degrees of freedom drifting toward equipartition of angular momentum deficit. Secular chaos is known to be responsible for the eventual destabilization of Mercury in our own solar system. Here we focus on systems with three giant planets. We characterize the secular chaos and demonstrate the criterion for it to occur, but leave a detailed understanding of secular chaos to a companion paper. After an extended period of eccentricity diffusion, the inner planet's pericenter can approach the star to within a few stellar radii. Strong tidal interactions and ensuing tidal dissipation extract orbital energy from the planet and pull it inward, creating a hot Jupiter. In contrast to other proposed channels for the production of hot Jupiters, such a scenario (which we term 'secular migration') explains a range of observations: the pile-up of hot Jupiters at 3 day orbital periods, the fact that hot Jupiters are in general less massive than other radial velocity planets, that they may have misaligned inclinations with respect to stellar spin, and that they have few easily detectable companions (but may have giant companions in distant orbits). Secular migration can also explain close-in planets as low in mass as Neptune; and an aborted secular migration can explain the 'warm Jupiters' at intermediate distances. In addition, the frequency of hot Jupiters formed via secular migration increases with stellar age. We further suggest that secular chaos may be responsible for the observed eccentricities of giant planets at larger distances and that these planets could exhibit significant spin-orbit misalignment.

Historical trends and the long-term changes of the hydrological cycle components in a Mediterranean river basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Mentzafou, A; Wagner, S; Dimitriou, E

2018-04-29

Identifying the historical hydrometeorological trends in a river basin is necessary for understanding the dominant interactions between climate, human activities and local hydromorphological conditions. Estimating the hydrological reference conditions in a river is also crucial for estimating accurately the impacts from human water related activities and design appropriate water management schemes. In this effort, the output of a regional past climate model was used, covering the period from 1660 to 1990, in combination with a dynamic, spatially distributed, hydrologic model to estimate the past and recent trends in the main hydrologic parameters such as overland flow, water storages and evapotranspiration, in a Mediterranean river basin. The simulated past hydrologic conditions (1660-1960) were compared with the current hydrologic regime (1960-1990), to assess the magnitude of human and natural impacts on the identified hydrologic trends. The hydrological components of the recent period of 2008-2016 were also examined in relation to the impact of human activities. The estimated long-term trends of the hydrologic parameters were partially assigned to varying atmospheric forcing due to volcanic activity combined with spontaneous meteorological fluctuations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Aggregate demand, functional finance and secular stagnation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skott, Peter

2016-01-01

This paper makes three main points. Fiscal policy, first, may be needed in the long run to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. If fiscal policy is used in this way, second, the long-run debt ratio depends (i) inversely on the rate of growth, (ii) inversely on government consump...

Modelling impacts of atmospheric deposition and temperature on long-term DOC trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Sawicka, K; Rowe, E C; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; E I Vanguelova; Wade, A J; J M Clark

2017-02-01

It is increasingly recognised that widespread and substantial increases in Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in remote surface, and soil, waters in recent decades are linked to declining acid deposition. Effects of rising pH and declining ionic strength on DOC solubility have been proposed as potential dominant mechanisms. However, since DOC in these systems is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and since organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists over the extent to which other drivers that could influence DOC production. Such potential drivers include fertilisation by nitrogen (N) and global warming. We therefore ran the dynamic soil chemistry model MADOC for a range of UK soils, for which time series data are available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on soil DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to raise the "acid recovery DOC baseline" significantly. In contrast, reductions in non-marine chloride deposition and effects of long term warming appeared to have been relatively unimportant. The suggestion that future DOC concentrations might exceed preindustrial levels as a consequence of nitrogen pollution has important implications for drinking water catchment management and the setting and pursuit of appropriate restoration targets, but findings still require validation from reliable centennial-scale proxy records, such as those being developed

Association between labour market trends and trends in young people's mental health in ten European countries 1983-2005.

Science.gov (United States)

Lager, Anton C J; Bremberg, Sven G

2009-09-08

Mental health problems have become more common among young people over the last twenty years, especially in certain countries. The reasons for this have remained unclear. The hypothesis tested in this study is that national trends in young people's mental health are associated with national trends in young people's labour market. National secular changes in the proportion of young people with mental health problems and national secular labour market changes were studied from 1983 to 2005 in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The correlation between the national secular changes in the proportion of young people not in the labour force and the national secular changes in proportion of young people with mental health symptoms was 0.77 for boys and 0.92 for girls. Labour market trends may have contributed to the deteriorating trend in mental health among young people. A true relationship, should other studies confirm it, would be an important aspect to take into account when forming labour market policies or policies concerning the delivery of higher education.

Tendência secular da altura na idade adulta de crianças nascidas na cidade de São Paulo entre 1950 e 1976 Secular trends in the adult height of children born in S. Paulo city, Brazil, from 1950 to 1976

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan França Júnior

2000-12-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Estimar a tendência/mudança secular das estaturas de jovens do sexo masculino, aos 18 anos de idade, nascidos na cidade de São Paulo, SP, entre 1950 e 1976. MÉTODOS: Foi coletada amostra aleatória e representativa de 6.942 indivíduos avaliados no alistamento militar. A análise estatística compreendeu a avaliação da normalidade da distribuição estatural (teste de Shapiro-Wilk e a análise da tendência pelas técnicas de regressão linear. RESULTADOS/CONCLUSÕES: A distribuição das estaturas foi considerada normal para todas as coortes. O aumento total das estaturas foi de 3,42 centímetros ao longo dos 27 anos do estudo (1,26 cm/década. A tendência no período não foi linear, havendo aumento significativo na década de 50 (0,84 cm/década, aumento não significativo na década de 60 (0,5 cm/década e aumento expressivo no período 1970-76 (2,9 cm/década. O ritmo de mudança secular observado é comparável ao de outros países e estados do Brasil. As coortes mais recentes (1975 e 1976 atingiram a maior estatura (~175 cm; contudo, este valor ainda indica déficits de 1,8 cm e 6,2 cm quando comparado às estaturas de jovens americanos nascidos em 1961 (NCHS e holandeses em 1972. Mantidas as aceleradas taxas de mudança secular da década de 70, os jovens paulistas poderão recuperar estes déficits entre uma a três décadas. Isto indica a necessidade de contínua monitoração da tendência secular das alturas na cidade de São Paulo.OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to estimate the secular trend/change in the height of young males born in the city of S. Paulo between 1950 and 1976 and measured in the year they turn 18 years. METHODS: A random and representative sample (6,942 individuals was evaluated in military draft. Statistical analyses included Shapiro-Wilk test for normality of height distribution in each birth cohort, and linear regression analysis for trend on heights. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: Stature has

Long-Term Trend and Seasonal Variability of Horizontal Visibility in Nigerian Troposphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mukhtar Balarabe

2015-10-01

Full Text Available A study of the long-term variability; trend and characteristics of visibility in four zones of Nigeria was carried out. Visibility and other meteorological data from NOAA-NCDC and aerosol index data over Nigeria during 1984–2013 are analyzed using time series and  simple regression model. There are significant decreasing trends for every region and season during the 30-years period; the fluctuations exhibited nearly similar pattern. The 30-year mean visibilities for the four zones (Sahel; North Central; Southern; and Coastal were 13.8 ± 3.9; 14.3 ± 4.2; 13.6 ± 3.5 and 12.8 ± 3.1 km with decreasing trends at the rates of 0.08; 0.06; 0.02 and 0.02 km/year. In all the zones; visibilities were better in summer while worse in Harmattan (dry season. During summer visibility was best in Sahel and North-central; however; in Harmattan visibility was best in southern and coastal zones. It was best between May and June (17.6; 18.9; 16.6 and 15.1 km with a second peak in September. The 30-year seasonal averages were 16.2 ± 2.1; 16.8 ± 2.4; 15.4 ± 1.8 and 14.0 ± 2.2 km in summer; and 10.2 ± 2.5; 10.9 ± 2.9; 11.0 ± 3.3 and 11.4 ± 3.0 km in Harmattan for the respective zones. Sahel and North Central had the worse visibility reduction during Harmattan compared with Southern and coastal areas. An analysis based on simple regression equation reveals a strong and negative relationship between visibility on one hand; AI; and AOD on the other hand. The analysis also discusses the variability regarding the frequency of occurrence of a dust storm; dust haze; and good visibility over the period of study.

Fundamental movement skills in adolescents: Secular trends from 2003 to 2010 and associations with physical activity and BMI.

Science.gov (United States)

Huotari, P; Heikinaro-Johansson, P; Watt, A; Jaakkola, T

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to examine the secular trends in fundamental movement skills (FMS) among 15- to 16-year-old adolescents at 2 assessment points scheduled in 2003 and 2010 and to investigate the associations between FMS, physical activity (PA), and body mass index (BMI). In 2003, self-reported PA, weight and height, and objective FMS scores were collected from 2390 students, and in 2010, similar data were generated from a second sample of 1346 students. FMS were assessed during both assessment phases using 3 identical objective FMS tests that were figure 8 dribbling, jumping laterally, and coordination track tests. This study indicated that the sum index of FMS did not change among the boys and the girls between 2 data collection points. However, findings demonstrated a secular decline in coordination test scores in both gender groups between 2 measurement points but an improvement in girls' object control skills between 2003 and 2010. The results also showed that FMS had a significant main effect on BMI in both gender groups, whereas the main effect of PA on BMI was not significant for either gender group. Results also demonstrated that there was no significant interaction effect between FMS and PA on BMI in either of the girls' or the boys' groups. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiculturalism and secularism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lægaard, Sune

2017-01-01

. Secularism denotes what such principles imply for the relationship between politics and religion. Such formal understandings provide theoretical frameworks for specifying different conceptions of multiculturalism and secularism and for determining in precisely which respects conflicts might arise......Multiculturalism in a European context increasingly has come to denote a concern with religious minorities. Claims for multicultural accommodation of minorities therefore potentially conflict with secularist requirements of separation of politics and religion. Whether there is a conflict depends...... on the general understandings of multiculturalism and secularism. The paper therefore distinguishes and examines different general understandings. Both multiculturalism and secularism can be understood as sets of policies, or as forms of minority accommodation or views about the relationship between religion...

Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO missions observations and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krivanek, Robert, E-mail: r.krivanek@iaea.org [Operational Safety Section, Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna 1400 (Austria); Havel, Radim, E-mail: Radim.Havel@gmail.com [RESCO, Nitranska 894/8, 10100 Praha 10 (Czech Republic)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • During the period 2005–mid 2015, 22 SALTO peer review missions and 2 LTO modules of OSART missions were conducted. • Analysis of these mission results and main trends observed are gathered in this paper. • The main task of the assessment performed was to evaluate and give a weight to the evaluation. • Results of SALTO follow-up missions as well as OSART follow-up missions with LTO module are summarized. • The SALTO peer review service is strongly recommended for NPPs prior to entering LTO period. - Abstract: This paper builds on paper “Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO peer review service and its results”, NED8070, presented in Nuclear Engineering and Design in September 2014. This paper presents the analysis of SALTO mission results and main trends observed so that all the most important results of SALTO missions are gathered in one paper. The paper also includes the results of LTO module reviews performed in the frame of OSART missions where applicable as well as follow-up missions. This paper is divided in three main Sections. Section 1 provides brief introduction to SALTO peer review service. Section 2 provides overview of performed SALTO missions and LTO modules of OSART missions performed between 2005 and mid-2015. Section 3 summarizes the most significant observations and trends resulting from the missions between 2005 and mid-2015. Section 4 summarizes the results of SALTO follow-up missions as well as OSART follow-up missions.

Long-term mortality and causes of death associated with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gotland, N; Uhre, M L; Mejer, N

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Data describing long-term mortality in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) is scarce. This study investigated risk factors, causes of death and temporal trends in long-term mortality associated with SAB. METHODS: Nationwide population-based matched cohort study...... respiratory disease, nervous system disease, unknown causes, psychiatric disorders, cardiovascular disease and senility. Over time, rates of death decreased or were stable for all disease categories except for musculoskeletal and skin disease where a trend towards an increase was seen. CONCLUSION: Long......-term mortality after SAB was high but decreased over time. SAB cases were more likely to die of eight specific causes of death and less likely to die of five other causes of death compared to controls. Causes of death decreased for most disease categories. Risk factors associated with long-term mortality were...

Effects of Antipsychotics on Secular Mortality Trends in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, René Ernst; Valentin, Jan B; Lolk, Annette

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate secular changes in mortality rates between patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and the general population as well as changes in antipsychotic drug treatment and the association between drug treatment and mortality in patients with AD in Denmark during a 12-year study...

SECULAR TRENDS AND LATITUDE GRADIENTS IN THE MALE-FEMALE RATIO AT BIRTH IN YUGOSLAVIA AND THE EX-YUGOSLAVIAN STATES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor Grech

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Latitude gradients and secular trends in Europe and North America have been found in the male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births which approximates 0.515. Methods: Annual national data for Yugoslavia and the post-Yugoslavia States for male and female live births were obtained from the World Health Organisation and analysed with contingency tables. Results: This study analysed 22,020,729 live births. There was a increasing trend in M/F prior to the breakup of the former Yugoslavia (1950–1990, p = 0.002, followed by a decreasing trend after 1990 (p = 0.02. A latitude gradient was also noted, with more males being born in southern, warmer latitudes (p < 0.0001. There was an overall excess of 42,753 male births based on an anticipated M/F of 0.515. Conclusion: M/F is decreasing in this region, similar to the rest of Europe and North America. A latitude gradient is also present with more males being born in warmer (more Southern latitudes (p < 0.0001, even in this small region and over the short time-frame studied.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium

Science.gov (United States)

Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

2018-03-01

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

2018-03-01

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Secular trends of pregnancies in women with inflammatory connective tissue disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallenius, Marianne; Salvesen, Kjell Å; Daltveit, Anne K; Skomsvoll, Johan F

2015-11-01

This study examined secular trends in reproductive outcome in women with inflammatory connective tissue disease compared with reference deliveries from the general population. Historical cohort study based on data registered in the Medical Birth Register of Norway from 1967 to 2009. The study included singleton births in women recorded with connective tissue disease (n = 851) and reference deliveries from the general population (n = 2 437 110). Births were stratified in four periods, 1967-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. Associations between connective tissue disease and maternal and perinatal outcomes by decade were assessed in logistic regression analyses and adjusted for maternal age at delivery and parity. In the 1970s, around 2.7 deliveries/year were registered for women with connective tissue disease (0.004% of all deliveries). This increased to 42 deliveries/year (0.07% of all deliveries) after 2000. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for cesarean section were 5.0 (95% CI 2.1-11.9) in the first and 1.8 (95% CI 1.4-2.3) in the last period. For preterm delivery the aOR decreased from 4.9 (95% CI 2.1-11.4) to 3.1 (95% CI 2.3-4.2) and the aOR for birthweight connective tissue disease. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were more common among women with connective tissue disease but risks have decreased over time. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Association between labour market trends and trends in young people's mental health in ten European countries 1983-2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lager Anton CJ

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mental health problems have become more common among young people over the last twenty years, especially in certain countries. The reasons for this have remained unclear. The hypothesis tested in this study is that national trends in young people's mental health are associated with national trends in young people's labour market. Methods National secular changes in the proportion of young people with mental health problems and national secular labour market changes were studied from 1983 to 2005 in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Results The correlation between the national secular changes in the proportion of young people not in the labour force and the national secular changes in proportion of young people with mental health symptoms was 0.77 for boys and 0.92 for girls. Conclusion Labour market trends may have contributed to the deteriorating trend in mental health among young people. A true relationship, should other studies confirm it, would be an important aspect to take into account when forming labour market policies or policies concerning the delivery of higher education.

SECULAR TRENDS AND LATITUDE GRADIENTS IN SEX RATIOS AT BIRTH IN THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS

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Victor Grech

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births, which is anticipated to approximate 0.515, has been shown to exhibit latitude gradients and secular trends. Methods: Annual national data for male and female live births for the 15 countries that comprise the former Soviet Union were obtained from the World Health Organisation for the period 1980–2009 (115,167,569 total live births and analysed with contingency tables. Spearman correlation was also carried out to compare percentage annual gross domestic product growth (GDP% – downloaded from the World Bank and M/F. In this context, GDP% is used as a measure for economic hardship or wellbeing within the populace. Results: There have been overall highly significant secular increases in M/F (p < 0.0001 in the countries and regions investigated. M/F is significantly lower in the three more northern regions (Russian Federation, Baltic States and Central Asia. M/F 0.51324, 0.51335-0.51314 than the two more southern regions (Southern Caucasus and Eastern Europe. M/F 0.51654, 0.51635-0.51672. There was a male excess of 113,818 live births.There was a significant positive correlation between GDP% and M/F for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. There was a significant negative correlation in Estonia. Conclusion: Previous studies have shown that improving socioeconomic conditions increase M/F, and the converse has also been demonstrated. This is a potential influence in this geographical area since this region has relatively recently emerged from communist rule and experienced an overall economic upturn, but is only partially supported using GDP%. Another factor may be the selective termination of female pregnancies. The latitude gradient parallels that of neighbouring Europe but no theory has been put forward to convincingly explain this finding to date.

Prevalence of osteoporosis and incidence of hip fracture in women - secular trends over 30 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sernbo Ingemar

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The number of hip fractures during recent decades has been reported to be increasing, partly because of an increasing proportion of elderly women in the society. However, whether changes in hip fracture annual incidence in women are attributable to secular changes in the prevalence of osteoporosis is unclear. Methods Bone mineral density was evaluated by single-photon absorptiometry at the distal radius in 456 women aged 50 years or above and living in the same city. The measurements were obtained by the same densitometer during three separate time periods: 1970-74 (n = 106, 1987-93 (n = 175 and 1998-1999 (n = 178, and the age-adjusted prevalence of osteoporosis in these three cohorts was calculated. Additionally, all hip fractures sustained in the target population of women aged 50 years or above between 1967 and 2001 were registered, whereupon the crude and the age-adjusted annual incidence of hip fractures were calculated. Results There was no significant difference in the age-adjusted prevalence of osteoporosis when the three cohorts were compared (P = 1.00. The crude annual incidence (per 10,000 women of hip fracture in the target population increased by 110% from 40 in 1967 to 84 in 2001. The overall trend in the crude incidence between 1967 and 2001 was increasing (1.58 per 10,000 women per year; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.17 to 1.99, whereas the age-adjusted incidence was stable over the same period (0.22 per 10,000 women per year; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.16 to 0.60. Conclusions The increased number of hip fracture in elderly women is more likely to be attributable to demographic changes in the population than to secular increase in the prevalence of osteoporosis.

SECULAR GROWTH AND MATURATION CHANGES IN HUNGARY IN RELATION TO SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES.

Science.gov (United States)

Bodzsar, Eva B; Zsakai, Annamaria; Mascie-Taylor, Nicholas

2016-03-01

This paper analyses the secular changes in the body development patterns of Hungarian children between the 1910s and the beginning of the 2000s in relation to socioeconomic and demographic changes in the country. Individual growth data of children were available from two national growth studies (1983-86, 2003-06), while sample-size weighted means of children's body dimensions were collected through regional studies between the 1920s and 1970s. Gross domestic product, Gini index, life expectancy at birth and under-5 mortality rate were used to assess the changes in economic status, income inequalities of the society and the population's general health status, respectively. Secular changes in food consumption habits were also examined. The positive Hungarian secular changes in socioeconomic status were associated with a continuous increase in children's body dimensions. The negative socioeconomic changes reflected only in wartime and post-war periods of children's growth, and the considerable socioeconomic changes at the beginning of the 1990s did not appear to influence the positive trend in children's growth. The positive secular trend in stature and body mass did not level off at the beginning of the 2000s: the socioeconomic conditions that support optimal growth and maturation could improve in Hungary.

Increasing Juniperus virginiana L. pollen in the Tulsa atmosphere: long-term trends, variability, and influence of meteorological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Flonard, Michaela; Lo, Esther; Levetin, Estelle

2018-02-01

In the Tulsa area, the Cupressaceae is largely represented by eastern red cedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.). The encroachment of this species into the grasslands of Oklahoma has been well documented, and it is believed this trend will continue. The pollen is known to be allergenic and is a major component of the Tulsa atmosphere in February and March. This study examined airborne Cupressaceae pollen data from 1987 to 2016 to determine long-term trends, pollen seasonal variability, and influence of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations. Pollen was collected through means of a Burkard sampler and analyzed with microscopy. Daily pollen concentrations and yearly pollen metrics showed a high degree of variability. In addition, there were significant increases over time in the seasonal pollen index and in peak concentrations. These increases parallel the increasing population of J. virginiana in the region. Pollen data were split into pre- and post-peak categories for statistical analyses, which revealed significant differences in correlations of the two datasets when analyzed with meteorological conditions. While temperature and dew point, among others were significant in both datasets, other factors, like relative humidity, were significant only in one dataset. Analyses using wind direction showed that southerly and southwestern winds contributed to increased pollen concentrations. This study confirms that J. virginiana pollen has become an increasing risk for individuals sensitive to this pollen and emphasizes the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in other areas.

The long-term power purchase: Recovery of capacity costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cross, P.S.

1990-01-01

As electric utilities increase their reliance on the long-term power purchase as an alternative to utility-owned generation, the appropriate rate treatment of the costs established in the purchase agreement assumes growing importance. In the November 9, 1989, issue, the authors examined the recent trend among state regulators to treat the long-term purchase in a manner similar to the addition by a utility of a new plant, including a full-scale prudence review. This installment will review recent rulings on the related issue of rate recovery of long-term capacity costs through the fuel cost adjustment clause

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

2001-01-01

Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lægaard, Sune

2008-01-01

Tariq Modood argues that European states are only ‘moderately secular' and that this kind of secularism is compatible with public accommodation of religious groups and provides a model of Muslim integration appropriate for European states. Although attention to the fact of moderate secularism...... provides a response to a prominent argument against multicultural accommodation of religious minorities, what is really at stake in discussions of multiculturalism and secularism are political principles. Modood's case for accommodation of Muslims along the lines of moderate secularism presupposes...

Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

kaufman, D.S.; Vinther, Bo Møllesøe

2009-01-01

continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused...

Long-term trend and variability of atmospheric PM10 concentration in the Po Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Bigi, A.; Ghermandi, G.

2014-05-01

The limits to atmospheric pollutant concentration set by the European Commission provide a challenging target for the municipalities in the Po Valley, because of the characteristic climatic conditions and high population density of this region. In order to assess climatology and trends in the concentration of atmospheric particles in the Po Valley, a data set of PM10 data from 41 sites across the Po Valley have been analysed, including both traffic and background sites (either urban, suburban or rural). Of these 41 sites, 18 with 10 yr or longer record have been analysed for long-term trend in deseasonalized monthly means, in annual quantiles and in monthly frequency distribution. A widespread significant decreasing trend has been observed at most sites, up to a few percent per year, by a generalized least squares and Theil-Sen method. All 41 sites have been tested for significant weekly periodicity by Kruskal-Wallis test for mean anomalies and by Wilcoxon test for weekend effect magnitude. A significant weekly periodicity has been observed for most PM10 series, particularly in summer and ascribed mainly to anthropic particulate emissions. A cluster analysis has been applied in order to highlight stations sharing similar pollution conditions over the reference period. Five clusters have been found, two encompassing the metropolitan areas of Turin and Milan and their respective nearby sites and the other three clusters gathering northeast, northwest and central Po Valley sites respectively. Finally, the observed trends in atmospheric PM10 have been compared to trends in provincial emissions of particulates and PM precursors, and analysed along with data on vehicular fleet age, composition and fuel sales. A significant basin-wide drop in emissions occurred for gaseous pollutants, contrarily to emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, whose drop was low and restricted to a few provinces. It is not clear whether the decrease for only gaseous emissions is sufficient to explain the

geomagnetic secular variation and the 1969–1970 secular jerk

African Journals Online (AJOL)

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The plots of D rather strongly suggest the presence of a jerk around 1980 at most of the stations. Key words/phrases: Magnetic observatories, polynomial fitting, residuals, secular variation, secular jerk. INTRODUCTION. The magnetic field of the Earth has been observed to exhibit changes of remarkably wide spectral.

Public debt, secular stagnation and functional finance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skott, Peter

2016-01-01

Fiscal policy and public debt may be required to maintain full employment and avoid secular stagnation. This conclusion emerges from a range of different models, including OLG specifications and stock-flow consistent (post-) Keynesian models. One of the determinants of the required long-run debt ...

Long-term economic outlook. Annual review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-01-01

This review provides economic growth forecast tables for Ontario, Canada, the US, Western Europe, and Japan. Economic growth, government policy, the long-term prospects for inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, trends in the Canadian dollar, and energy markets and prices are also reviewed. Data generally cover 1965-2025. Appendices give a summary of historical and forecast data. 18 figs., 16 tabs.

Long Term Evaluation of Yield Stability Trend for Cereal Crops in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

mehdi nassiri mahalati

2016-05-01

Full Text Available During the last few decades cereals yield have increased drastically at the national level however, information about yield stability and its resistance to annual environmental variability are scare. In this study long term stability of grin yield of wheat, barley, rice, corn and overall cereals in Iran were evaluated during a 40-year period (1971-2011. Stability analysis was conducted using two different methods. In the first method the residuals of regression between crop yield and time (years were calculated as stability index. For this different segmented regression models including linear, bi-linear and tri-linear were fitted to yield trend data and the best model for each crop was selected based on statistical measures. Absolute residuals (the difference between actual and predicted yields for each year as well as relative residuals (absolute residuals as percent of predicted yield were estimated. In the second method yield stability was estimated from the slope of the regression line between average annual yield of all cereals (environmental index and the yield of each crop in the same year. Results indicted that in wheat and barley absolute and relative residuals were increased during the study period leading to reduction of stability despite considerable yield increment. However, for rice and corn residuals followed a decreasing trend and therefore yield stability of these crops was increased during the last 40 years. The same result was obtained with the environmental index but in this method reduction of yield stability in barley was lower than wheat. Based on the results, yield and yield stability of cereals crops in Iran increased during the last 40 years. However, the percentage increase in stability is lower than that of yield. Application of nitrogen fertilizers was led to reduction in stability. Yield stability of wheat, barley, rice, corn and overall cereals was improved with increasing their cultivated area.

Secularization versus religious revival in Eastern Europe: Church institutional resilience, state repression and divergent paths.

Science.gov (United States)

Northmore-Ball, Ksenia; Evans, Geoffrey

2016-05-01

Despite continuing for over two decades, the debate about the nature of the trends in religiosity in post-Communist Eastern Europe remains unresolved: some arguing that these countries are undergoing the same process of secularization as the West, while others insist that the entire region is experiencing a religious revival. Using national sample surveys from the early 1990s to 2007 to examine the change in demographic predictors of religiosity, we show that Catholic and Orthodox countries are experiencing different trends, the first group displaying evidence of secularization and the second of revival, and that these two different trends are likely to derive from the legacies of state repression and the differing abilities of the churches to resist such repression. We argue that the current literature has thus taken a mistakenly general approach, and that the post-Communist region consists of at least two distinct groups of societies with different trends in religiosity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Secular dynamics of hierarchical multiple systems composed of nested binaries, with an arbitrary number of bodies and arbitrary hierarchical structure - II. External perturbations: flybys and supernovae

Science.gov (United States)

Hamers, Adrian S.

2018-05-01

We extend the formalism of a previous paper to include the effects of flybys and instantaneous perturbations such as supernovae on the long-term secular evolution of hierarchical multiple systems with an arbitrary number of bodies and hierarchy, provided that the system is composed of nested binary orbits. To model secular encounters, we expand the Hamiltonian in terms of the ratio of the separation of the perturber with respect to the barycentre of the multiple system, to the separation of the widest orbit. Subsequently, we integrate over the perturber orbit numerically or analytically. We verify our method for secular encounters and illustrate it with an example. Furthermore, we describe a method to compute instantaneous orbital changes to multiple systems, such as asymmetric supernovae and impulsive encounters. The secular code, with implementation of the extensions described in this paper, is publicly available within AMUSE, and we provide a number of simple example scripts to illustrate its usage for secular and impulsive encounters and asymmetric supernovae. The extensions presented in this paper are a next step towards efficiently modelling the evolution of complex multiple systems embedded in star clusters.

Evaluating secular acceleration in geomagnetic field model GRIMM-3

Science.gov (United States)

Lesur, V.; Wardinski, I.

2012-12-01

Secular acceleration of the magnetic field is the rate of change of its secular variation. One of the main results of studying magnetic data collected by the German survey satellite CHAMP was the mapping of field acceleration and its evolution in time. Questions remain about the accuracy of the modeled acceleration and the effect of the applied regularization processes. We have evaluated to what extent the regularization affects the temporal variability of the Gauss coefficients. We also obtained results of temporal variability of the Gauss coefficients where alternative approaches to the usual smoothing norms have been applied for regularization. Except for the dipole term, the secular acceleration of the Gauss coefficients is fairly well described up to spherical harmonic degree 5 or 6. There is no clear evidence from observatory data that the spectrum of this acceleration is underestimated at the Earth surface. Assuming a resistive mantle, the observed acceleration supports a characteristic time scale for the secular variation of the order of 11 years.

RepoTREND. The program package for the integrated long term safety analysis of final repository systems. Version 4.5 (State March 2016); RepoTREND. Das Programmpaket zur integrierten Langzeitsicherheitsanalyse von Endlagersystemen. Version 4.5 (Stand Maerz 2016)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reiche, Tatiana

2016-04-15

The long-term safety analysis is the analysis of final repository behavior after closure includes the spreading of pollutants into the biosphere (mobilization and release of pollutants into the near field, radionuclide migration through the geosphere, radiation exposure in the biosphere) and the radiological consequences. The report describes the program package RepoTREND, the respective modules (near field, GeoTREND, BioTREND and probabilistic analyses), sequencing and postprocessing and the quality management.

Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

2017-09-01

Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Short-term trends in the gas industry - Panorama 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

In a context of high investment costs and rising energy prices, and recurring unseasonably warm temperatures in recent years, the growth of natural gas demand is slowing. On the supply side, and on the demand side too, new trends are emerging, with potentially powerful impact on the short-and long-term development of the industry

Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

Science.gov (United States)

Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

2017-01-01

Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

A Secular Trend in Birth Weight and Delivery Practices in Periurban Vietnam During 2005-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Duong, Duc Minh; Nguyen, Anh Duy; Nguyen, Chuong Canh; Le, Vui Thi; Hoang, Son Ngoc; Bui, Ha Thi Thu

2017-07-01

The remarkable increase in Vietnamese economic conditions can increase the birth weight in neonates and better delivery practices among women. The Chi Linh Health and Demographic Surveillance System started in 2004. An open cohort of data consisting of about 57 561 people from 17 993 households has been followed primarily with respect to demography, economy, and education. The aim of this research is to study secular trends in delivery practice and birth weight in the past decade (2005-2012) in Chi Linh. We found a significant change in delivery rates at hospitals and cesarean section rates, but the birth weights over a decade of drastic economic development were stable. Furthermore, the findings show significant associations of birth weight and delivery practices with the child's sex, mother's age, and household income. Our results might be considered as representative for other similar periurban settings in Vietnam. We suggest that appropriate policies should be developed given the reduction in the use of delivery services in commune health centers in urban areas.

Post-Secularism or Liberal-Democratic Constitutionalism?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

V. Bader (Veit)

2012-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ The increasingly fashionable concept and framing of post-secularism aims to construct simplistic dichotomies and clear-cut ruptures between pre-secular, secular and post-secular ages or epochs, in order to paint generalised and homogenised pictures of societies and

The Role of Interreligious and Interfaith Dialogue in the Post-Secular World

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Biljana Popovska

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Today, western liberal democratic societies are secular, or in other words, religion is set apart from the state. However, the beginning of the 21st century has seen a re-politicizing of the religion. This paper argues that religion plays an important role in current global politics and events. Moreover, it has been used as tool to recruit masses for a wrong cause. Hence, Interreligious and interfaith dialog can play a role of catalysts and a future trend in cultural diplomacy. The paper provides definitions of a secular and post secular society. Then, it discusses the general concept of dialogue and explores it from an interreligious and interfaith point of view as a way to mitigate the role religion has undertaken. Finally, it provides examples of what European Union has been doing in that respect.

Long-Term Care for People with Development Disabilities: A Critical Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Palley, Howard A.; Van Hollen, Valerie

2000-01-01

Explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. Reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area.…

Comments on equilibrium, transient equilibrium, and secular equilibrium in serial radioactive decay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prince, J.R.

1979-01-01

Equations describing serial radioactive decay are reviewed along with published descriptions or transient and secular equilibrium. It is shown that terms describing equilibrium are not used in the same way by various authors. Specific definitions are proposed; they suggest that secular equilibrium is a subset of transient equilibrium

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

2016-02-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

Post-Secularism or Liberal-Democratic Constitutionalism?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bader, V.

2012-01-01

The increasingly fashionable concept and framing of post-secularism aims to construct simplistic dichotomies and clear-cut ruptures between pre-secular, secular and post-secular ages or epochs, in order to paint generalised and homogenised pictures of societies and their inevitable evolution. This

Long-term runoff changes in regions of Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miklanek, Pavol; Pekarova; Pavla

2004-01-01

Mean annual runoff variability includes both natural and anthropogenic (climate change) impacts. Aim of the paper is to identify the long-term trends and the cyclic runoff components of selected Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000, and of the Danube river for the period 1840-2000. The variability is analysed by the long-term runoff trends of 27 Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000. The stations were included into the Slovak National Climate Program and they are supposed not to be influenced by anthropogenic activities except of possible climate change. Comparison of the monthly runoff series of the 27 rivers allowed us to draw 3 regions with different runoff trends on the territory of Slovakia (constant trend in Northern and Eastern Slovakia, slow decrease in Central Slovakia, and rapid decrease in Southern Slovakia; The identification of different cyclic components of the runoff series is included. The length of the series allows to identify the 22-year cycles as maximum. By means of the longer runoff series of the Danube river it is shown that the more dry periods occurred in the central Europe and Slovakia in mid 19 th century. The longer Danube series were used also to find the longer runoff cycles of about 31 and 46 years. The mean annual temperature in Europe was lower by 0.6 o C in mid 19 th century compared to 1990s. The temperature increase is put down to climate change impact. The driest period shown by Danube runoff series in mid 19 th century occurred before the start of the climate change. Therefore it is probable that the long-term runoff variability has its own dynamics as well. (Author)

Water quality of the Neuse River, North Carolina - Variability, pollution loads, and long-term trends

Science.gov (United States)

Harned, Doughlas A.

1982-01-01

Interpretation of water-quality data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Neuse River, North Carolina, has identified water-quality variations, charactrized the current condition of the river in reference to water-quality standards, estimated the degree of pollution caused by man, and evaluated long-term trends in concentrations of major dissolved constituents. Two sampling stations, Neuse River near Clayton (02087500) and Neuse River at Kinston (02089500) have more than 12 years of water-quality data collected during the period from 1955 to 1978. The Clayton station provides information on the upper fourth of the basin (1,129 mi 2) which includes several urbanized areas, including Raleigh, N.C., and part of Durham, N.C. The Kinston station provides information from the predominantly rural midsection of the basin (2,690 mi2). A network of temporary stations on small rural streams in the Neuse River and adjacent basins provide an estimate of baseline or es- sentially unpolluted water quality. Overall, the water quality of the Neuse River is satisfactory for most uses. However, dissolved-oxygen, iron, and manganese concentrations, pH, and bacterial concentrations often reach undesirable levels. Concentrations of cadmium, and lead also periodically peak at or above criterion levels for domestic water supply sources. Nutrient levels are generally high enough to allow rich algal growth. Sediment concentrations in the Neuse are high in comparison to pristine streams, however, the impacts of these high levels are difficult to quantify. Sediment and nutrient concentrations peak on the leading edge of flood discharges at Clayton. At Kinston, however, the discharge and sediment concentration peak almost simultaneously. Changes in algal dominance, from genera usually associated with organically enriched waters to genera that are less tolerant to organic enrichment, indicate improvement in water qualiy of the Neuse since 1973. These changes, along with a reduction

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme

Observations of secular changes in the kinematic model of SS433

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, G.W. II; Newsom, G.H.

1982-01-01

In this paper the authors present evidence that several of the defining parameters of the Kinematic Model for SS433 are not constant but rather exhibit long term systematic changes. Recent data confirm the existence of the previously reported decrease in the precessional period. The value for this period change, when combined with the observed change in the period of the synodic spectral variations, implies that the orbital period is not significantly changing on a time scale less than 1000 years. In addition they find mounting evidence for a statistically significant (4sigma) secular change in the cone angle theta at a rate of about -1.5 x 10 -3 deg/day. However, the surprisingly short time scales implied by the observed values of dP/dt and dtheta/dt when combined with estimates of the system age suggest the possible existence of detectable higher time derivatives. This view is supported by the most recent data which suggest a value for d 2 P/dt 2 approximately 10 -5 (days) -1 . It is possible to understand these secular changes in terms of the motions to be expected from an object exhibiting classical precession in response to an external torque. (Auth.)

Archiving primary data: solutions for long-term studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mills, J.A.; Teplitsky, C.; Arroyo, B.; Charmantier, A.; H. Becker, P.; Birkhead, T.R.; Bize, P.; Blumstein, D.T.; Bonenfant, C.; Boutin, S.; Bushuev, A.; Cam, E.; Cockburn, A.; Côté, S.D.; Coulson, J.C.; Daunt, F.; Dingemanse, N.J.; Doligez, B.; Drummond, H.; Espie, R.H.M.; Festa-Bianchet, M.; Frentiu, F.; Fitzpatrick, J.W.; Furness, R.W.; Garant, D.; Gauthier, G.; Grant, P.R.; Griesser, M.; Gustafsson, L.; Hansson, B.; Harris, M.P.; Jiguet, F.; Kjellander, P.; Korpimäki, E.; Krebs, C.J.; Lens, L.; Linnell, J.D.C.; Low, M.; McAdam, A.; Margalida, A.; Merilä, J.; Møller, A.P.; Nakagawa, S.; Nilsson, J.-Å.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; van Noordwijk, A.J.; Oro, D.; Pärt, T.; Pelletier, F.; Potti, J.; Pujol, B.; Réale, D.; Rockwell, R.F.; Ropert-Coudert, Y.; Roulin, A.; Thébaud, C.; Sedinger, J.S.; Swenson, J.E.; Visser, M.E.; S.Wanless Westneat, D.F.; Wilson, A.J.; Zedrosser, A.

2015-01-01

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with

Archiving primary data : Solutions for long-term studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mills, James A.; Teplitsky, Celine; Arroyo, Beatriz; Charmantier, Anne; Becker, Peter. H.; Birkhead, Tim R.; Bize, Pierre; Blumstein, Daniel T.; Bonenfant, Christophe; Boutin, Stan; Bushuev, Andrey; Cam, Emmanuelle; Cockburn, Andrew; Cote, Steeve D.; Coulson, John C.; Daunt, Francis; Dingemanse, Niels J.; Doligez, Blandine; Drummond, Hugh; Espie, Richard H. M.; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Frentiu, Francesca; Fitzpatrick, John W.; Furness, Robert W.; Garant, Dany; Gauthier, Gilles; Grant, Peter R.; Griesser, Michael; Gustafsson, Lars; Hansson, Bengt; Harris, Michael P.; Jiguet, Frederic; Kjellander, Petter; Korpimaki, Erkki; Krebs, Charles J.; Lens, Luc; Linne, John D. C.; Low, Matthew; McAdam, Andrew; Margalida, Antoni; Merila, Juha; Moller, Anders P.; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Nilsson, Jan-Ake; Nisbet, Ian C. T.; van Noordwijk, Arie J.; Oro, Daniel; Part, Tomas; Pelletier, Fanie; Potti, Jaime; Pujol, Benoit; Reale, Denis; Rockwel, Robert F.; Ropert-Coudert, Yan; Roulin, Alexandre; Sedinger, James S.; Swenson, Jon E.; Thebaud, Christophe; Visser, Marcel E.; Wanless, Sarah; Westneat, David F.; Wilson, Alastair J.; Zedrosser, Andreas

2015-01-01

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (PIs) with

The evolution of the global selenium cycle: Secular trends in Se isotopes and abundances

Science.gov (United States)

Stüeken, E. E.; Buick, R.; Bekker, A.; Catling, D.; Foriel, J.; Guy, B. M.; Kah, L. C.; Machel, H. G.; Montañez, I. P.; Poulton, S. W.

2015-08-01

The Earth's surface has undergone major transitions in its redox state over the past three billion years, which have affected the mobility and distribution of many elements. Here we use Se isotopic and abundance measurements of marine and non-marine mudrocks to reconstruct the evolution of the biogeochemical Se cycle from ∼3.2 Gyr onwards. The six stable isotopes of Se are predominantly fractionated during redox reactions under suboxic conditions, which makes Se a potentially valuable new tool for identifying intermediate stages from an anoxic to a fully oxygenated world. δ82/78Se shows small fractionations of mostly less than 2‰ throughout Earth's history and all are mass-dependent within error. In the Archean, especially after 2.7 Gyr, we find an isotopic enrichment in marine (+0.37 ± 0.27‰) relative to non-marine samples (-0.28 ± 0.67‰), paired with increasing Se abundances. Student t-tests show that these trends are statistically significant. Although we cannot completely rule out the possibility of volcanic Se addition, these trends may indicate the onset of oxidative weathering on land, followed by non-quantitative reduction of Se oxyanions during fluvial transport. The Paleoproterozoic Great Oxidation Event (GOE) is not reflected in the marine δ82/78Se record. However, we find a major inflection in the secular δ82/78Se trend during the Neoproterozoic, from a Precambrian mean of +0.42 ± 0.45‰ to a Phanerozoic mean of -0.19 ± 0.59‰. This drop probably reflects the oxygenation of the deep ocean at this time, stabilizing Se oxyanions throughout the water column. Since then, reduction of Se oxyanions has likely been restricted to anoxic basins and diagenetic environments in sediments. In light of recent Cr isotope data, it is likely that oxidative weathering before the Neoproterozoic produced Se oxyanions in the intermediate redox state SeIV, whereas the fully oxidized species SeVI became more abundant after the Neoproterozoic rise of

Tendência secular de crescimento em escolares de Paulínia, São Paulo-Brasil (1979/80 - 1993/94 Secular trends of growth of schoolchildren from Paulínia, São Paulo - Brazil (1979/80 - 1993/94

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denise Barbieri Marmo

2004-12-01

Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência secular de altura, peso e da relação peso/altura em escolares de Paulínia, São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1979/80 e 1993/94. MÉTODOS: Medidas antropométricas de peso (P e altura (A e da relação P/A de 1.903 crianças de 6,5 a 12,5 anos (51,5% M e 48,5% F de escolas públicas de Paulínia foram comparadas com dados de estudo anterior realizado na mesma cidade, com intervalo de 15 anos. Calculou-se o incremento por década e alisou-se os dados pela técnica de médias e medianas móveis (3H3H3. RESULTADOS: As médias de altura e peso foram sempre superiores às do estudo anterior, com incrementos positivos. Os incrementos para a altura variaram de 1,13 a 5 cm no sexo masculino e 1,2 a 4,33 cm nas meninas, já para o peso a variação foi de 0,53 a 4,13 kg nos meninos e 0,87 a 3,0 kg nas meninas. Para a relação P/A, as médias dos dois estudos foram muito semelhantes em ambos os sexos. CONCLUSÕES: A tendência secular positiva da estatura e do peso neste período deve-se principalmente ao desenvolvimento econômico, de saneamento básico, de habitação, de educação e na área de saúde ocorrido na cidade de Paulínia. A tendência secular positiva encontrada foi semelhante à observada em países desenvolvidos após a II Guerra Mundial e de outros trabalhos brasileiros.BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the secular trends in height, weight and weight/height of schoolchildren from the city of Paulínia, São Paulo, Brazil between 1979/80 and 1993/94. METHODS: Anthropometric measurements (height, weight and weight/height of 1,903 children (6.5-12.5y; 51.5% M: 48.5% F, from Paulínia public schools were compared with data from a previous study carried out in the same city 15 years earlier. Decade increments were calculated and data was smoothed by the technique of means and medians (3H3H3. RESULTS: Height and weight mean values were always greater than those of the previous study, with positive

Secular Variation and Physical Characteristics Determination of the HADS Star EH Lib

Science.gov (United States)

Pena, J. H.; Villarreal, C.; Pina, D. S.; Renteria, A.; Soni, A., Guillen, J. Calderon, J.

2017-12-01

Physical parameters of EH Lib have been determined based on observations carried out in 2015 with photometry. They have also served, along with samples from the years 1969 and 1986, to analyse the frequency content of EH Lib with Fourier Transforms. Recent CCD observations increased the times of maximum with twelve new times which helped us study the secular variation of the period with a method based on the minimization of the standard deviation of the O-C residuals. It is concluded that there may be a long-term period change.

BLASPHEMY IN A SECULAR STATE:

African Journals Online (AJOL)

MLR

altogether the religious basis of secular authority'.2 Accordingly, it 'terminated the Pope's claim to universal authority and confirmed the diplomatic independence of secular rulers'.3 However, the meaning of the secular is itself in a continuous state of articulation and re-articulation, casting doubts also on its attributes.

Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. S. Tang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998–2014 and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999–2014 across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m−3 and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m−3, while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m−3 annual mean in 2005. Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha−1 yr−1 and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n =  59 show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann–Kendall (MK, −6.3 %; linear regression (LR, −3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: −22 %; LR: −21 %, annually averaged NH3 is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (−39 %. By contrast, in cattle

Capacity of Physiotherapy Workforce Production in Thailand: Public-Private Mix, Secular Trend and Geographic Distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaewsawang, Sarinee; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Vongsirinavarat, Mantana

2016-06-01

In Thailand, the shortage of physiotherapists has been an increasing concern because of increased health burden from demographic and epidemiologic changes. This study aims to analyse the current situation of the physiotherapy workforce production system, secular trend, geographical distribution and comparison of public and private physiotherapy training institutes. Longitudinal data related to production capacity of the physiotherapy institutes were applied. Data from 2008 to 2012 were obtained from all 16 physiotherapy institutes in Thailand. Data during 2000-2007 were also retrieved from annual reports from the Ministry of Education. Descriptive statistics were initially used. Comparison was made between public and private physiotherapy institutes in terms of the number of students admitted and graduated, number of teachers, annual tuition fee, student-teacher ratio and dropout rate within 1 year. Predictive factors for graduation within 4 years were determined using logistic regression. In Thailand, there was an average of 800 physiotherapy graduates per year. New private institutes have been recently established and have steadily increased student admission rates. However, this has resulted in a high student-teacher ratio (median 7.1, inter-quartile range (IQR) 5.9-10.0). The first-year dropout rate in 2012 was 29.1%. Geographically, the majority of the institutes are clustered in the central region. Multivariate analysis revealed significantly lower probability of graduation within 4 years among students admitted to the private institutes and those in non-north-east region. The production capacity of the physiotherapy workforce is below an estimated need. Private physiotherapy institutes need more support to improve the situation of staff shortages and student graduation rates. The non-central regions should be encouraged to produce more physiotherapists. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Eight years secular trends of physical self-esteem among Swedish adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Raustorp, Anders

2010-01-01

The main aim of this study was to explore secular trends between 2000 and 2008 in physical self esteem by comparing cross sectional cohorts of young adolescents. Data of physical self esteem, mean steps per day and body mass index (BMI) were collected in comparable cohorts comprising 191 (103 girls) (2000) and 170 adolescents (101 girls) (2008) in a middle class Swedish community. There was a significant higher Global Self-esteem in the cohort 2008 compared with the 2000 cohort both in boys (p = .004) and girls (p = .018). Regarding Physical Self-worth, both boys and girls reported higher mean values in 2008, which were however not significant. Boys classified overweight/obese showed a significant lower value in Global Self-esteem (p = .001) in the 2008 cohort when compared with the overweight/obese in the 2000 cohort, but all other domains showed non significant differences. Girls classified overweight/obese showed a significant lower value in Physical Strength (p = .023), in the 2008 cohort when compared with the overweight/ obese in the 2000 cohort, but all other domains showed non significant differences. There was significantly higher Global Self-esteem in the cohort 2008 compared with the 2000 cohort both in boys and girls, and regarding Physical Self-worth, both boys and girls reported higher mean values in 2008 that were not significant. In the overweight/obese adolescents group, the only significant difference was a lower perceived Physical Strength in girls in 2008 and a significant lower Global Self-esteem in boys in 2008. Enhanced focus on physical activity in society and actions taken by the school might have influenced the result.

The Incidence and Management of Conflicts in Secular and Non-Secular Tertiary Institutions in South West Nigeria

Science.gov (United States)

Ayodele, Joseph Babatola; Adewumi, Joseph Olukayode

2007-01-01

This paper compared the incidence and management of conflicts in secular and non-secular tertiary institutions in Nigeria. The sample of this study was made of sixty staff, and two hundred and forty students randomly selected each from two secular and two non-secular tertiary institutions in south western Nigeria. A validated questionnaire was…

A systematic review of global publication trends regarding long-term outcomes of ADHD.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

2011-01-01

There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

A Systematic Review of Global Publication Trends Regarding Long-Term Outcomes of ADHD

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L. Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan

2012-01-01

There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This

Long-term Trends in Particulate Organic Carbon from a Low-Gradient Autotrophic Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, J.; Ford, W. I., III

2014-12-01

Recent insights from low-gradient streams dominated by fine surficial sediments have shown fluvial organic matter dynamics are governed by coupled hydrologic and biotic controls at event to seasonal timescales. Notwithstanding the importance of shorter timescales, quantity and quality of carbon in stream ecosystems at annual and decadal scales is of increased interest in order to understand if stream ecosystems are net stores or sinks of carbon and how stream carbon behaves under dynamic climate conditions. As part of an ongoing study in a low-gradient, agricultural watershed in the Bluegrass Region of Central Kentucky, an eight year dataset of transported particulate organic carbon (POC) was analyzed for the present study. The objective was to investigate if POC dynamics at multi-year timescales are governed by biotic or hydrologic processes. A statistical analysis using Empirical Mode Decomposition was performed on an 8 year dataset of transported sediment carbon, temperature, and log-transformed flowrates at the watershed outlet. Simulations from a previously validated, process-based, organic carbon model were utilized as further verification of drivers. Results from the analysis suggest that a 4 degree Celsius mean annual temperature shift corresponds to a 63% increase in organic carbon content at the main-stem, third order outlet and a 33% increase in organic carbon content at the main-stem inlet. Model and stable isotope results for the 8 year study support that long-term increases in organic carbon concentration are governed by biotic growth and humification of algal biomass in which increasing annual temperatures promote increased organic carbon production, relative to ecosystem respiration. This result contradicts conventional wisdom, suggesting projected warming trends will shift autotrophic freshwater systems to net heterotrophic, which has significant implications for the role of benthic stream ecosystems under changing climate conditions. Future work

SECULAR GRAVITATIONAL INSTABILITY OF A DUST LAYER IN SHEAR TURBULENCE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michikoshi, Shugo; Kokubo, Eiichiro; Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro

2012-01-01

We perform a linear stability analysis of a dust layer in a turbulent gas disk. Youdin investigated the secular gravitational instability (GI) of a dust layer using hydrodynamic equations with a turbulent diffusion term. We obtain essentially the same result independently of Youdin. In the present analysis, we restrict the area of interest to small dust particles, while investigating the secular GI in a more rigorous manner. We discuss the time evolution of the dust surface density distribution using a stochastic model and derive the advection-diffusion equation. The validity of the analysis by Youdin is confirmed in the strong drag limit. We demonstrate quantitatively that the finite thickness of a dust layer weakens the secular GI and that the density-dependent diffusion coefficient changes the growth rate. We apply the results obtained to the turbulence driven by the shear instability and find that the secular GI is faster than the radial drift when the gas density is three times as large as that in the minimum-mass disk model. If the dust particles are larger than chondrules, the secular GI grows within the lifetime of a protoplanetary disk.

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

HAS ROMANIA BECOME A SECULAR SOCIETY?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

IRINA STAHL

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The article examines the question of secularization of Europe, and in particular of Romania, by using multiple international data sets. Secularization has been defined separation of the state government and religious authority resulting in a decrease in church attendance, a diminished trust in religious institutions, a lessening of religions’ importance in society, an increase in religious diversity with a concomitant decrease in group cohesiveness, and the rise of situational ethics and moral relativism. Several theories of secularization are explored in an effort to determine the presence of a secular continuum. Although there may be an increase of secular behaviours in member states of the European Union, a claim of growing secularism in Romania is not supported by an examination of the multiple data sets

Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velpuri, N M; Senay, G B

2013-01-01

This study investigates the long-term trends in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. The seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on monthly precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient data from 1950 to 2009 obtained from 62 urban watersheds covering 21 major urban centers in the United States. The results indicate that only five out of 21 urban centers in the United States showed an uptrend in precipitation. Twelve urban centers showed an uptrend in runoff coefficient. However, six urban centers did not show any trend in runoff coefficient, and three urban centers showed a significant downtrend. The highest rate of change in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient was observed in the Houston urban watershed. Based on the results obtained, we also attributed plausible causes for the trends. Our analysis indicated that while a human only influence is observed in most of the urban watersheds, a combined climate and human influence is observed in the central United States. (letter)

Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

2018-05-01

Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from

Natural gas market assessment: Long-term Canadian natural gas contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-08-01

A descriptive analysis is presented of the changes which have occurred and the developing trends in the long-term Canadian contracts governing the sale of western Canadian gas into the domestic and export markets from 1985 to 1991. The report is limited to domestic and export contracts for Canadian gas and does not include imported gas under contract. Contract structures prior to deregulation, the changing role of long-term contracts, size and duration of long-term contracts, and terms and conditions of long-term contracts are discussed. Important changes since the mid-1980s include: increased flexibility in long-term contracts enabling the parties to respond more readily to changing supply and demand conditions; greater balance between the buyer's obligation to purchase and the seller's obligation to deliver; flexible and increasingly simple pricing terms that track competitive market conditions; shorter contract terms; reduced contract volumes as smaller end-users and producer/marketers enter the market; and unbundling of gas sales and transportation service providing a wider range of contracting choices and options. 36 figs., 2 tabs

Secular variation of cosmic ray intensity recorded in the radiocarbon concentration of tree rings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kigoshi, K.

1978-01-01

Study of the secular variations of cosmic ray intensity on the basis of the secular variations of atmospheric radiocarbon concentration in 8000 years is considered. The data on the radiocarbon concentration is received by three laboratories using the dendrochronologically dated tree ring samples. In order to use the data the variations due to geochemical process must be eliminated. From this point of view the climatic effect on the atmospheric radiocarbon concenttration is estimated using the data on sunspot number and global surface temperature during 1650-1800 y. The barge influence of climate on the atmospheric radiocarbon concentration syggests the small contribution of change of radiocarbon production rate to the short-period fluctuations in the atmospheric radiocarbon concentration. Elimination of variations caused by climate and sunspot activities from the variations in atmospheric radiocarbon concentration gives a long-term scale of its concentration which agrees well to the observed paleo-geomagnetic data

Solar cycle and long term variations of mesospheric ice layers

Science.gov (United States)

Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Kiliani, Johannes; Baumgarten, Gerd; Fiedler, Jens; Gerding, Michael

2010-05-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes, frequently called `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) or `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC), are considered to be sensitive indicators of long term changes in the middle atmosphere. We present a summary of long term observations from the ground and from satellites and compare with results from the LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model). LIMA nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and thereby the morphology of ice clouds. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this give s negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. As will be shown, these trends originate in the stratosphere. Solar cycle effects are expected in ice layers due to variations in background temperatures and water paper. We will present results from LIMA regarding solar cycle variations and compare with NLC observations at our lidar stations in Kühlungsborn (54°N) and ALOMAR (69°N), and also with satellite measurements.

Long-term trends in restoration and associated land treatments in the southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Copeland, Stella M.; Munson, Seth M.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.; Bradford, John B.; Butterfield, Bradley J.

2018-01-01

Restoration treatments, such as revegetation with seeding or invasive species removal, have been applied on U.S. public lands for decades. Temporal trends in these management actions have not been extensively summarized previously, particularly in the southwestern United States where invasive plant species, drought, and fire have altered dryland ecosystems. We assessed long-term (1940–2010) trends in restoration using approximately 4,000 vegetation treatments conducted on Bureau of Land Management lands across the southwestern United States. We found that since 1940, the proportions of seeding and vegetation/soil manipulation (e.g. vegetation removal or plowing) treatments have declined, while the proportions of prescribed burn and invasive species treatments have increased. Treatments in pinyon-juniper and big sagebrush communities declined in comparison to treatments in desert scrub, creosote bush, and riparian woodland communities. Restoration-focused treatment objectives increased relative to resource extraction objectives. Species richness and proportion of native species used in seeding treatments also increased. Inflation-adjusted costs per area rose 750% for vegetation/soil manipulation, 600% for seeding, and 400% for prescribed burn treatments in the decades from 1981 to 2010. Seeding treatments were implemented in warmer and drier years when compared to the climate conditions of the entire study period and warmer and wetter years relative to several years before and after the treatment. These results suggest that treatments over a 70-year period on public lands in the southwestern United States are shifting toward restoration practices that are increasingly large, expensive, and related to fire and invasive species control.

Timescales for determining temperature and dissolved oxygen trends in the Long Island Sound (LIS) estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Staniec, Allison; Vlahos, Penny

2017-12-01

Long-term time series represent a critical part of the oceanographic community's efforts to discern natural and anthropogenically forced variations in the environment. They provide regular measurements of climate relevant indicators including temperature, oxygen concentrations, and salinity. When evaluating time series, it is essential to isolate long-term trends from autocorrelation in data and noise due to natural variability. Herein we apply a statistical approach, well-established in atmospheric time series, to key parameters in the U.S. east coast's Long Island Sound estuary (LIS). Analysis shows that the LIS time series (established in the early 1990s) is sufficiently long to detect significant trends in physical-chemical parameters including temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO). Over the last two decades, overall (combined surface and deep) LIS T has increased at an average rate of 0.08 ± 0.03 °C yr-1 while overall DO has dropped at an average rate of 0.03 ± 0.01 mg L-1yr-1 since 1994 at the 95% confidence level. This trend is notably faster than the global open ocean T trend (0.01 °C yr-1), as might be expected for a shallower estuarine system. T and DO trends were always significant for the existing time series using four month data increments. Rates of change of DO and T in LIS are strongly correlated and the rate of decrease of DO concentrations is consistent with the expected reduced solubility of DO at these higher temperatures. Thus, changes in T alone, across decadal timescales can account for between 33 and 100% of the observed decrease in DO. This has significant implications for other dissolved gases and the long-term management of LIS hypoxia.

Secular trend in height in enlisted men and recruits from the Brazilian Navy born from 1970 to 1977

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilberto Kac

Full Text Available This study presents data from a survey on height trends in Brazilian Navy enlisted men and recruits born from 1970 to 1977. The sample consisted of 52,574 enlisted men and 4,459 recruits ranging in age from 18.00 to 18.99 years. The statistical processing employed two-way analysis of variance procedure, simple linear regression comparing height and year of birth and multiple analysis controlling for schooling (regression coefficient and the chi-square. The results show that enlisted men and recruits displayed height increments, characterizing a contemporary process of secular trend. Such increments were also present in the country's various macro-regions. The results were compared to a recent investigation of a national scope the National Survey on Health and Nutrition (PNSN and both enlisted men and recruits displayed higher median height than that reported by the PNSN. Level of schooling for individuals in the Navy is high, far superior to that of the Brazilian population as a whole. This set of data suggests that young men enlisting in the Navy are on average of a higher socioeconomic status than the Brazilian population in general, which limits possibilities for extrapolating the findings from this research.

Long-term care for people with developmental disabilities: a critical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Palley, H A; Van Hollen, V

2000-08-01

This article explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. The article also reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area. The authors conclude that future policies with respect to meeting long-term care needs for people with developmental disabilities must be addressed flexibly on an individual basis, related to individual needs, and must provide a continuum of care services.

Yield gap analysis in long-term experiments with intensive rice cultivation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laureles, E.V.; Correa, T. Jr.; Buresh, R.J.

2007-01-01

The long-term continuous cropping experiment at IRRI is cultivated with three rice crops in a year, making it the world's most intensively cropped long-term rice experiment. The availability of comprehensive rice production records, compiled weather data, and tested crop models provides a means to evaluate long-term trends in measured and potential yields and yield gaps in this rice production system. Yield trends were assessed using the highest yielding cultivar in each cropping season from 1979 to 2005. Potential yield of the highest yielding cultivar in each season was determined using three rice models (ORYZA, TERM, and CERES) run with the actual transplanting and harvest dates for the cultivar. The yield gap was determined from the difference between the simulated potential grain yield and the measured grain yield. Measured and potential yields and the yield gap varied across seasons and years. Measured yields were higher in the dry season than in the early and late wet seasons. The yield gap tended to be higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Climatic parameters, particularly solar radiation, influenced the performance of rice cultivars. The relatively larger yield gaps in the late wet season than in the dry season were associated with increased spikelet sterility. The cumulative measured yield for the three annual rice crop was near 80 percent of the annual yield potential in years with best practices for fertilizer N and crop management. The long term trends suggest that effective timing and rates of N fertilization and effective control of diseases were critical in achieving 80 percent of the annual yield potential

Secular stability of rotating stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imamura, J.N.; Friedman, J.L.; Durisen, R.H.

1984-01-01

In this work, the authors calculate the secular stability limits of rotating polytropes to nonaxisymmetric perturbations of low m. Polytropic indices ranging from 1 to 3 and several angular momentum distributions are considered. Results are most conveniently presented in terms of the t-parameter, defined as the ratio of the rotational kinetic energy to the absolute value of the gravitational energy of the fluid. Previous work on polytropes considered only the m = 2 mode, which is unstable for values of the t-parameter greater than 0.14 +- 0.01 for the n values n = 1.5 and 3 and the angular momentum distributions tested (see Durisen and Imamura 1981). The GRR secular stability limit of the m - 2 mode for the Maclaurin spheroids (n = 0) was determined by Chandrasekhar (1970). GRR stability limits of higher m modes for the Maclaurin spheroids were located approximately by Comins (1979a,b) and more precisely by Friedman (1983). 16 references, 2 tables

Secular stability of rotating stars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imamura, J.N.; Friedman, J.L.; Durisen, R.H.

1984-01-01

In this work, we calculate the secular stability limits of rotating polytropes to nonaxisymmetric perturbations of low m. We consider polytropic indices ranging from 1 to 3 and several angular momentum distributions. Results are most conveniently presented in terms of the t-parameter, defined as the ratio of the rotational kinetic energy to the absolute value of the gravitational energy of the fluid. Previous work on polytropes considered only the m = 2 mode, which is unstable for values of the t-parameter greater than 0.14 +- 0.01 for the n values n = 1.5 and 3 and the angular momentum distributions tested (see Durisen and Imamura 1981). The GRR secular stability limit of the m = 2 mode for the Maclaurin spheroids (n = O) was determined by Chandrasekhar (1970). GRR stability limits of higher m modes for the Maclaurin spheroids were located approximately by Comins (1979a,b) and more precisely by Friedman (1983)

Characterization of long term field aging of polymer modified bitumen in porous asphalt

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, D. van; Erkens, S.; Leegwater, G.A.

2012-01-01

The effect of long term field aging on different types of polymer modified binders used in two-layer porous asphalt is studied using different test methods. Chemical and rheological tests are performed on samples taken from road sections at different moments in time in search of trends in long term

Chances of short-term cooling trends over Canada for the next decades

Science.gov (United States)

Grenier, Patrick; de Elia, Ramon; Chaumont, Diane

2014-05-01

As climate services continue to develop in Quebec, Canada, an increasing number of requests are made for providing information relevant for the near term. As a response, one approach has been to consider short-term cooling trends as a basis for climate products. This project comprises different aspects: technical steps, knowledge transfer, and societal use. Each step does represent a different challenge. The technical part, i.e. producing probabilistic distributions of short-term temperature trends, involves relatively complex scenario construction methods including bias-related post-processing, and access to wide simulation and observation databases. Calculations are performed on 60 CMIP5-based scenarios on a grid covering Canada during the period 2006-2035, and for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year trend durations. Knowledge transfer implies overcoming misinterpretation, given that probabilistic projections based on simulation ensembles are not perfectly related to real-Earth possible outcomes. Finally, societal use of this information remains the biggest challenge. On the one hand, users clearly state their interest in near-term relevant information, and intuitively it seems clear that short-term cooling trends embedded within the long-term warming path should be considered in adaptation plans, for avoiding over-adaptation. On the other hand, the exact way of incorporating such information within a decision-making process has proven not to be obvious. Irrespective of that, the study and communication of short-term cooling chances is necessary for preventing decision-makers to infer from the eventual occurrence of such a trend that global warming isn't happening. The presentation will discuss the three aspects aforementioned.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Long-term trends of suicide by choice of method in Norway: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 1969 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Puzo, Quirino; Qin, Ping; Mehlum, Lars

2016-03-11

Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway. Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis. The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning. The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures

A retrospective investigation of energy efficiency standards: policies may have accelerated long term declines in appliance costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Buskirk, R D; Kantner, C L S; Gerke, B F; Chu, S

2014-01-01

We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declined faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs. (letter)

Secular stagnation or stagnation policy? Steindl after Summers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eckhard Hein

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The debate on secular stagnation suffers from vagueness and several shortcomings, which affect its economic policy implications. In this work we provide an alternative view on the advanced economies’ tendencies to stagnation, based on Josef Steindl’s contributions. Steindl’s pioneering 1952 book in particular is not prone to several problems that affect the current debate on secular stagnation. It does not rely on the dubious notion of an equilibrium real interest rate as the equilibrating force of saving and investment at full employment levels. Rather, it is based on the notion that modern capitalist economies face aggregate demand constraints, and that saving adjusts to investment through income growth and changes in capacity utilisation in the long run. Steindl’s treatment allows for potential growth to become endogenous to actual demand, and it seriously considers the role of institutions and power relationships for long-run growth. In illustrating Steindl’s contributions on this topic, the article presents an original model synthetizing the main points in particular concerning long run growth and stagnation. JEL codes: B22, E11, E12, E65, O11

Recovery from chronic and snowmelt acidification: Long-term trends in stream and soil water chemistry at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Colin B. Fuss; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell

2015-01-01

Atmospheric acid deposition of sulfate and nitrate has declined markedly in the northeastern United States due to emissions controls. We investigated long-term trends in soil water (1984–2011) and stream water (1982–2011) chemistry along an elevation gradient of a forested watershed to evaluate the progress of recovery of drainage waters from acidic deposition at the...

An initial investigation of the long-term trends in the fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) calibration parameters on the four Cluster spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Alconcel, L. N. S.; Fox, P.; Brown, P.; Oddy, T. M.; Lucek, E. L.; Carr, C. M.

2014-07-01

Over the course of more than 10 years in operation, the calibration parameters of the outboard fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) sensors on the four Cluster spacecraft are shown to be remarkably stable. The parameters are refined on the ground during the rigorous FGM calibration process performed for the Cluster Active Archive (CAA). Fluctuations in some parameters show some correlation with trends in the sensor temperature (orbit position). The parameters, particularly the offsets, of the spacecraft 1 (C1) sensor have undergone more long-term drift than those of the other spacecraft (C2, C3 and C4) sensors. Some potentially anomalous calibration parameters have been identified and will require further investigation in future. However, the observed long-term stability demonstrated in this initial study gives confidence in the accuracy of the Cluster magnetic field data. For the most sensitive ranges of the FGM instrument, the offset drift is typically 0.2 nT per year in each sensor on C1 and negligible on C2, C3 and C4.

Long-term trends in airborne SO2 in an air quality monitoring station in Seoul, Korea, from 1987 to 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Azmatullah; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Szulejko, Jan E; Brown, Richard J C; Jeon, Eui-Chan; Oh, Jong-Min; Shin, Yong Soon; Adelodun, Adedeji A

2017-08-01

Atmospheric concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) was intermittently measured at an air quality monitoring (AQM) station in the Yong-san district of Seoul, Korea, between 1987 and 2013. The SO 2 level was compared with other important pollutants concurrently measured, including methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 10 ). If split into three different periods (period 1, 1987-1988, period 2, 1999-2000, and period 3, 2004-2013), the respective mean [SO 2 ] values (6.57 ± 4.29, 6.30 ± 2.44, and 5.29 ± 0.63 ppb) showed a slight reduction across the entire study period. The concentrations of SO 2 are found to be strongly correlated with other pollutants such as CO (r = 0.614, p = 0.02), which tracked reductions in reported emissions due to tighter emissions standards enacted by the South Korean government. There was also a clear seasonal trend in the SO 2 level, especially in periods 2 and 3, reflecting the combined effects of domestic heating by coal briquettes and meteorological conditions. Although only a 16% concentration reduction was achieved during the 27-year study duration, this is significant if one considers rapid urbanization, an 83.2% increase in population, and rapid industrialization that took place during that period. Since 1970, a network of air quality monitoring (AQM) stations has been operated by the Korean Ministry of Environment (KMOE) for routine nationwide monitoring of air pollutant concentrations in urban/suburban areas. To date, the information obtained from these stations has provided a platform for analyzing long-term trends of major pollutant species. In this study, we examined the long-term trends of SO 2 levels and relevant environmental parameters monitored continuously in the Yong-san district of Seoul between 1987 and 2013. The data were analyzed over various time scales (i.e., monthly, seasonal, and annual intervals). The results obtained from

Long-term survival and causes of death after stroke

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Davidsen, M; Thorvaldsen, P

2001-01-01

As part of the Danish contribution to the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) Project, a register of patients with stroke was established in 1982. The purpose of the present study was to analyze long-term survival and causes of death...

Long-term outcomes of young people who attempted suicide

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grisham, Jessica R; Williams, Alishia D

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Suicidal behavior has increased since the onset of the global recession, a trend that may have long-term health and social implications. OBJECTIVE To test whether suicide attempts among young people signal increased risk for later poor health and social functioning above and beyond a

Proper Motion and Secular Variations of Keplerian Orbital Elements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexey G. Butkevich

2018-05-01

Full Text Available High-precision observations require accurate modeling of secular changes in the orbital elements in order to extrapolate measurements over long time intervals, and to detect deviation from pure Keplerian motion caused, for example, by other bodies or relativistic effects. We consider the evolution of the Keplerian elements resulting from the gradual change of the apparent orbit orientation due to proper motion. We present rigorous formulae for the transformation of the orbit inclination, longitude of the ascending node and argument of the pericenter from one epoch to another, assuming uniform stellar motion and taking radial velocity into account. An approximate treatment, accurate to the second-order terms in time, is also given. The proper motion effects may be significant for long-period transiting planets. These theoretical results are applicable to the modeling of planetary transits and precise Doppler measurements as well as analysis of pulsar and eclipsing binary timing observations.

Incidence of climate on common frog breeding: Long-term and short-term changes

Science.gov (United States)

Neveu, André

2009-09-01

In Brittany (northwest France), the climate is showing a trend toward warming. This change is increasingly suspected to have a role in driving amphibian decline, but it is very difficult to determine at what level the climate affects the future of species. Recently, some studies have detected some direct effects on breeding phenology and indirect effects on energy allocation. The present study explores some of these effects on the common frog ( Rana temporaria) from 1984 to 2007. The results show two trends: a long-term change in breeding activities and a short-term influence due to the 2003 climatic anomaly. For the period of study, the start of egg-laying shows a precocity that was correlated with thermal conditions during the preceding 40 days as well as milder springs during the previous year. This degree of precocity is currently the highest found in Europe (+26.6 days). As a result of the 2003 heat wave, the clutch mean fecundity in 2004 was smaller than for other years, the fecundity rates were reduced and abortions were numerous (unlike other years). Moreover, young females were the smallest observed in recent years and some females seemed to exhibit a trade-off between fecundity and growth. Before or after egg-laying, female body condition and mean weight of mature ovules were both lower. The year 2005 appears as a transition period before the recovery in 2006-2007. The results show that climate warming endangers the vital rates of the common frog, while the 2003 climatic events seem more detrimental than the long-term warming trend.

Exploring the determinants of secular decreases in dental caries among Korean children.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hye-Ju; Han, Dong-Hun

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine the contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in dental caries from 2003 to 2010. Data were from three waves of the Korean National Oral Health Surveys between 2003 and 2010, including a total of 23 059 children (11 889 boys and 11 170 girls) aged 8, 10, and 12 years. The impacts of sealant and water fluoridation on dental caries were obtained by logistic regression for each age group of children. The contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in the prevalence of dental caries were examined by a series of logistic regression models, and changes in the adjusted odds ratios for each survey year were also calculated. Over the past 7 years, the prevalence of dental caries decreased dramatically. Although sealant had a significant impact on dental caries in each survey year, remarkable decreases in dental caries from 2003 to 2010 were not explained by the secular changes in the dental sealant or water fluoridation factor. We observed important population declines in dental caries in Korea in children aged 8-12 years; however, the likely causes for these secular trends remain to be determined. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term trends in alcohol policy attitudes in Norway.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossow, Ingeborg; Storvoll, Elisabet E

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was to describe trends in attitudes to alcohol control policies in Norway over a period of 50 years and to discuss how these trends relate to developments in alcohol policy. Survey data from 17 national population surveys, national statistics and previous publications were applied to describe trends in attitudes to alcohol control polices (access to alcohol and price) and changes in these policies over the period 1962 to 2012. From 1962 to 1999, an increasing proportion of the population reported that regulations on availability of alcohol were too strict and that alcohol prices were too high, whereas in the 2000s this trend was reversed and support for existing control policies increased. Although the pillars of Norwegian alcohol policy--high prices, restricted access and a state monopoly on retail sales-remained, control policies were gradually relaxed throughout the entire period. Relaxation of strict alcohol control policies in Norway in the first four decades were probably, in part, the result of increasingly liberal public opinion. The subsequent reversed trend in opinions with increasing support for control policies may be due to several factors, for example, consumer-oriented changes in the monopoly system, increased availability and affordability, increased awareness of alcohol-related harm and the effectiveness of control policies. Thus, the dynamics of policies and attitudes may well change over time. © 2013 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Long-term (2001-2012) trends of carbonaceous aerosols from a remote island in the western North Pacific: an outflow region of Asian pollutants

Science.gov (United States)

Boreddy, Suresh K. R.; Mozammel Haque, M.; Kawamura, Kimitaka

2018-01-01

The present study reports on long-term trends of carbonaceous aerosols in total suspended particulate (TSP) samples collected at Chichijima in the western North Pacific during 2001-2012. Seasonal variations of elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) concentrations showed maxima in winter to spring and minima in summer. These seasonal differences in the concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols were associated with the outflows of polluted air masses from East Asia, which are clearly distinguishable from pristine air masses from the central Pacific. The higher concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols during winter to spring are associated with long-range atmospheric transport of East Asian continental polluted air masses, whereas lower concentrations may be due to pristine air masses from the central Pacific in summer. The annual trends of OC / EC (+0.46 % yr-1), WSOC (+0.18 % yr-1) and WSOC / OC (+0.08 % yr-1) showed significant (p Asia.

Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

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L. Giglio

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001–2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997–2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3 estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

Long-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong

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Chan Wai

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Hong Kong's rapidly ageing population, characterised by one of the longest life expectancies and the lowest fertility rate in the world, is likely to drive long-term care (LTC expenditure higher. This study aims to identify key cost drivers and derive quantitative estimates of Hong Kong's LTC expenditure to 2036. Methods We parameterised a macro actuarial simulation with data from official demographic projections, Thematic Household Survey 2004, Hong Kong's Domestic Health Accounts and other routine data from relevant government departments, Hospital Authority and other LTC service providers. Base case results were tested against a wide range of sensitivity assumptions. Results Total projected LTC expenditure as a proportion of GDP reflected secular trends in the elderly dependency ratio, showing a shallow dip between 2004 and 2011, but thereafter yielding a monotonic rise to reach 3.0% by 2036. Demographic changes would have a larger impact than changes in unit costs on overall spending. Different sensitivity scenarios resulted in a wide range of spending estimates from 2.2% to 4.9% of GDP. The availability of informal care and the setting of formal care as well as associated unit costs were important drivers of expenditure. Conclusion The "demographic window" between the present and 2011 is critical in developing policies to cope with the anticipated burgeoning LTC burden, in concert with the related issues of health care financing and retirement planning.

Providing long-term trend and gravimetric factor at Chandler period from superconducting gravimeter records by using Singular Spectrum Analysis along with its multivariate extension

Science.gov (United States)

Gruszczynska, M.; Rosat, S.; Klos, A.; Bogusz, J.

2017-12-01

In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) along with its multivariate extension MSSA (Multichannel SSA) were used to estimate long-term trend and gravimetric factor at the Chandler wobble frequency from superconducting gravimeter (SG) records. We have used data from seven stations located worldwide and contributing to the International Geodynamics and Earth Tides Service (IGETS). The timespan ranged from 15 to 19 years. Before applying SSA and MSSA, we had removed local tides, atmospheric (ECMWF data), hydrological (MERRA2 products) loadings and non-tidal ocean loading (ECCO2 products) effects. In the first part of analysis, we used the SSA approach in order to estimate the long-term trends from SG observations. We use the technique based on the classical Karhunen-Loève spectral decomposition of time series into long-term trend, oscillations and noise. In the second part, we present the determination of common time-varying pole tide (annual and Chandler wobble) to estimate gravimetric factor from SG time series using the MSSA approach. The presented method takes advantage over traditional methods like Least Squares Estimation by determining common modes of variability which reflect common geophysical field. We adopted a 6-year lag-window as the optimal length to extract common seasonal signals and the Chandler components of the Earth polar motion. The signals characterized by annual and Chandler wobble account for approximately 62% of the total variance of residual SG data. Then, we estimated the amplitude factors and phase lags of Chandler wobble with respect to the IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) polar motion observations. The resulting gravimetric factors at the Chandler Wobble period are finally compared with previously estimates. A robust estimate of the gravimetric Earth response to the Chandlerian component of the polar motion is required to better constrain the mantle anelasticity at this frequency and hence the

A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

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Benjamin I. Cook

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc., especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982–2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation. Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2–4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread

[The Development of Long-Term Care Policies and the Impact on Nursing].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shiao-Chi; Tsai, Yin-Yin; Yeh, Shin-Ting

2015-10-01

The government must reform and enhance current medical and long-term care services in order to respond effectively to societal ageing and labor shortage trends and to ensure sustainable operations. The post-acute care system should be reoriented on the home and community instead of the hospital. The Long Term Care Service Act integrates long-term care services that were previously dispersed amongst different departments, sets up a long-term care development fund, and improves the quality and allocation of long-term care services. Moreover, the Long Term Care Insurance Act will implement a bundle payment system to assist disabled families. The integration of automation and information technology will make long-term care more efficient. Although nurses are more skilled at elderly care and counseling than other community care professionals, nurses generally lack training in business management. Home and community-based services thus require better-trained manpower, opportunities to set care agents, and opportunities to offer flexible caring jobs. Therefore, nurses should strengthen their capabilities in post-acute care, business management, cooperation, and coordination.

Trends in Short- and Long-Term Outcomes for Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy Among Medicare Fee-for-Service Beneficiaries, 2007 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Murugiah, Karthik; Wang, Yun; Desai, Nihar R; Spatz, Erica S; Nuti, Sudhakar V; Dreyer, Rachel P; Krumholz, Harlan M

2016-03-01

The aim of this study was to assess trends in hospitalizations and outcomes for Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TTC). There is a paucity of nationally representative data on trends in short- and long-term outcomes for patients with TTC. The authors examined hospitalization rates; in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality; and all-cause 30-day readmission for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with principal and secondary diagnoses of TTC from 2007 to 2012. Hospitalizations for principal or secondary diagnosis of TTC increased from 5.7 per 100,000 person-years in 2007 to 17.4 in 2012 (p for trend < 0.001). Patients were predominantly women and of white race. For principal TTC, in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1% to 1.6%), 2.5% (95% CI: 2.2% to 2.8%), and 6.9% (95% CI: 6.4% to 7.5%), and the 30-day readmission rate was 11.6% (95% CI: 10.9% to 12.3%). For secondary TTC, in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality was 3% (95% CI: 2.7% to 3.3%), 4.7% (95% CI: 4.4% to 5.1%), and 11.4% (95% CI: 10.8% to 11.9%), and the 30-day readmission rate was 15.8% (95% CI: 15.1% to 16.4%). Over time, there was no change in mortality or readmission rate for both cohorts. Patients ≥85 years of age had higher in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality and 30-day readmission rates. Among patients with principal TTC, male and nonwhite patients had higher 1-year mortality than their counterparts, whereas in those with secondary TTC, mortality was worse at all 3 time points. Nonwhite patients had higher 30-day readmission rates for both cohorts. Hospitalization rates for TTC are increasing, but short- and long-term outcomes have not changed. At 1 year, 14 in 15 patients with principal TTC and 8 in 9 with secondary TTC are alive. Older, male, and nonwhite patients have worse outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climatic variability and trends in the surface waters of coastal British Columbia

Science.gov (United States)

Cummins, Patrick F.; Masson, Diane

2014-01-01

Multi-decadal records of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) collected at a set of lighthouse stations are used to examine climatic variability and trends in the coastal waters of British Columbia. Particular attention is given to relations between the water property anomalies and variability in coastal freshwater discharge and alongshore wind stress. Within the Strait of Georgia, SSS anomalies are closely related to Fraser River discharge anomalies. Along the Pacific coast, anomalies in alongshore wind stress and freshwater runoff have the characteristics of white noise processes. A cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that SST and SSS variability along the open west coast is consistent with the response of a first-order autoregressive process driven by anomalous alongshore wind stress and coastal freshwater discharge, respectively. Thus climatic variability of SST and SSS along the Pacific coast of British Columbia occurs, in part, through the integration of noisy atmospheric forcing and coastal precipitation. Seasonal correlations show that SST is strongly related to wind stress during winter and fall. Conversely, SSS is relatively weakly related to the alongshore wind during spring, suggesting that variability in upwelling makes only a modest contribution to variability of SSS in the nearshore environment. Consistent with previous studies, secular trends indicate long-term warming and freshening of the coastal ocean at most stations. It is shown that long-term SST trends can be obscured by the pronounced climatic variability of these waters, requiring that time series extend for several decades to be reliably detected.

Autonomous long-term gamma-spectrometric monitoring of submarine groundwater discharge trends in Hawaii

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dulai, Henrietta; Waters, Ch.A.; Kennedy, Joseph; Kamenik, Jan; Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Rez; Babinec, James; Jolly, James; Williamson, Mario

2016-01-01

We developed a fully autonomous underwater gamma-spectrometer for long-term coastal submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) monitoring. The instrument represents a significant improvement over previous submarine gamma-spectrometers in that it is very robust, has high sensitivity allowing high temporal resolution, and is completely autonomous. Here we describe the technical parameters of the new instrument as well as data collected over its 9-month deployment in Kiholo Bay, HI, USA. We also present methods to convert the measured activities to SGD rates. In Kiholo Bay, the derived SGD matched previous estimates but in addition it revealed previously undocumented short- and long-term patterns in SGD. (author)

Secular trends in meat and seafood consumption patterns among Chinese adults, 1991-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z H; Zhai, F Y; Wang, H J; Zhang, J G; Du, W W; Su, C; Zhang, J; Jiang, H R; Zhang, B

2015-02-01

Several studies have suggested differential health effects in relation to different meat composition in Western population. The purpose of the study was to examine secular trends in meat and seafood consumption patterns among Chinese adults between 1991 and 2011. Our longitudinal data are from 21,144 adults aged 18-75 in the China Health and Nutrition Survey, prospective cohort study. We assessed the intakes of meat and subtypes with three 24-h dietary recalls. We conducted multilevel mixed-effect logistic and linear regression models to examine meat consumption dynamics. The proportions of Chinese adults who consumed red meat, poultry and seafood increased from 65.7% in 1991 to 86.1% in 2011, from 7.5 to 20.9% and from 27.4 to 37.8%, respectively. With rapid decrease in meat intakes since 2009, the intakes of total meat, red meat, poultry and seafood among their consumers were 86.7 g/day, 86.4 g/day, 71.0 g/day and 70.3 g/day in 2011, respectively, which were just slightly higher compared with those in 1991. Fatty fresh pork has been predominantly component of total meat overtime, which consituted 54.0% of total meat intake, 80.0% of fresh red meat intake and 98.7% of fatty fresh red meat intake in 2011. Over the past two decades, meat consumption patterns of Chinese adults have been characterized by having a predominant intake of fatty fresh pork, suboptimal intakes of seafood and increased proportion of adults having excessive intakes of red meat and poultry overtime.

Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Domnisoru, A.

2006-01-01

Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on

Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

2006-02-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

Secular Trends on Birth Parameters, Growth, and Pubertal Timing in Girls with Turner Syndrome

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Joachim Woelfle

2018-02-01

Full Text Available BackgroundWhether children with chromosomal disorders of growth and puberty are affected by secular trends (STs as observed in the general population remains unanswered, but this question has relevance for expectations of spontaneous development and treatment responses.ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to evaluate STs in birth parameters, growth, and pubertal development in girls with Turner syndrome (TS.Study designRetrospective analysis of KIGS data (Pfizer International Growth Database. We included all TS patients who entered KIGS between 1987 and 2012 and were born from 1975 to 2004, who were prepubertal and growth treatment naïve at first entry (total number: 7,219. Pretreatment height and ages at the start of treatment were compared across 5-year birth year groups, with subgroup analyses stratified by induced or spontaneous puberty start.ResultsWe observed significant STs across the birth year groups for birth weight [+0.18 SD score (SDS, p < 0.001], pretreatment height at mean age 8 years (+0.73 SDS, p < 0.001, height at the start of growth hormone (GH therapy (+0.38 SDS, p < 0.001 and start of puberty (+0.42 SDS, p < 0.001. Spontaneous puberty onset increased from 15 to 30% (p < 0.001. Mean age at the start of GH treatment decreased from 10.8 to 7.4 years (−3.4 years; p < 0.001, and substantial declines were seen in ages at onset of spontaneous and induced puberty (−2.0 years; p < 0.001 and menarche (−2.1 years; p < 0.001.ConclusionEnvironmental changes leading to increased height and earlier and also more common, spontaneous puberty are applicable in TS as in normal girls. In addition, greater awareness for TS may underlie trends to earlier start of GH therapy and induction of puberty at a more physiological age.

Post-secular religious practices entering traditional religion

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Urszula Pękala

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays we can observe complex interactions between the religious and secular spheres. Several different processes take place simultaneously: the traditionally religious elements function in the secular sphere as if they were part of secular culture; elements of the secular sphere build a specific kind of post-secular religiosity; finally, this post-secular religiosity influences traditional religions. This article focuses on the last stage of these changes. The author's purpose is to describe and interpret the practices we can observe. Because of the complexity of this issue, the analyses are limited to examples taken from the Catholic Church in Germany, where this process seems to be as popular as it is paradoxical. Catholicism realises that the post-secular forms of religiosity are very popular and that many people choose them instead of the traditional Church. It could offer them spirituality based on ages of experience. But instead of making its own spiritual tradition competitive on the spiritual market, Catholicism seems to offer Christianised post-secular goods, or its own traditional elements represented in a secularised form. It seems difficult to predict how it will all end. However, we observe an interesting encounter and interaction between an ‘old’ religion and a new religiosity, which will certainly have impact on further presence of the Church in the society.

Research on meaning-making and health in secular society: Secular, spiritual and religious existential orientations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvidt, Niels Christian; La Cour, Peter

2010-01-01

cultural basis for research in secular society. Reviewing the literature, three main domains of existential meaning-making emerge: Secular, spiritual, and religious. In reconfirming these three domains, we propose to couple them with the three dimensions of cognition (knowing), practice (doing...

Urbanization accelerates long-term salinization and alkalinization of fresh water

Science.gov (United States)

Kaushal, S.; Duan, S.; Doody, T.; Haq, S.; Smith, R. M.; Newcomer Johnson, T. A.; Delaney Newcomb, K.; Gorman, J. K.; Bowman, N.; Mayer, P. M.; Wood, K. L.; Belt, K.; Stack, W.

2017-12-01

Human dominated land-use increases transport a major ions in streams due to anthropogenic salts and accelerated weathering. We show long-term trends in calcium, magnesium, sodium, alkalinity, and hardness over 50 years in the Baltimore metropolitan region and elsewhere. We also examine how major ion concentrations have increased significantly with impervious surface cover in watersheds across land use. Base cations show strong relationships with acid anions, which illustrates the coupling of major biogeochemical cycles in urban watersheds over time. Longitudinal patterns in major ions can also show increasing trends from headwaters to coastal waters, which suggests coupled biogeochemical cycles over space. We present new results from manipulative experiments and long-term monitoring across different urban regions regarding patterns and processes of salinization and alkalinization. Overall, our work demonstrates that urbanization dramatically increases major ions, ionic strength, and pH over decades from headwaters to coastal waters, which impacts the integrity of aquatic life, infrastructure, drinking water, and coastal ocean alkalinization.

Religious Globalisms in the Post-Secular Age

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wilson, E.K.; B. Steger, Manfred

2013-01-01

This article explores the interconnections between mounting global crises and the emergence of the post-secular. Specifically, the article argues that the post-secular is both a description of and a response to shifting global realities in the twenty-first century. It describes the crisis of secular

Long-term trends in total inorganic nitrogen and sulfur deposition in the US from 1990 to 2010

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Y. Zhang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Excess deposition (including both wet and dry deposition of nitrogen and sulfur is detrimental to ecosystems. Recent studies have investigated the spatial patterns and temporal trends of nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition, but few studies have focused on dry deposition due to the scarcity of dry deposition measurements. Here, we use long-term model simulations from the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ model covering the period from 1990 to 2010 to study changes in spatial distribution as well as temporal trends in total (TDEP, wet (WDEP, and dry deposition (DDEP of total inorganic nitrogen (TIN and sulfur (TS in the United States (US. We first evaluate the model's performance in simulating WDEP over the US by comparing the model results with observational data from the US National Atmospheric Deposition Program. The coupled model generally underestimates the WDEP of both TIN (including both the oxidized nitrogen deposition, TNO3, and the reduced nitrogen deposition, NHx and TS, with better performance in the eastern US than the western US. The underestimation of the wet deposition by the model is mainly caused by the coarse model grid resolution, missing lightning NOx emissions, and the poor temporal and spatial representation of NH3 emissions. TDEP of both TIN and TS shows significant decreases over the US, especially in the east, due to the large emission reductions that occurred in that region. The decreasing trends of TIN TDEP are caused by decreases in TNO3, and the increasing trends of TIN deposition over the Great Plains and Tropical Wet Forests (Southern Florida Coastal Plain regions are caused by increases in NH3 emissions, although it should be noted that these increasing trends are not significant. TIN WDEP shows decreasing trends throughout the US, except for the Marine West Coast Forest region. TIN DDEP shows significant decreasing trends in the Eastern Temperate Forests

Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skuterud, L.; Aahman, B.; Solatie, D.; Gaare, E.

2009-06-01

The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for maintaining

Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skuterud, L. (Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Norwegian Reindeer Husbandry Administration (Norway)); AAhman, B. (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (Sweden)); Solatie, D. (STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (Finland)); Gaare, E. (Norwegian Institute for Nature Researc (Norway))

2009-06-15

The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for

Archiving Primary Data: Solutions for Long-Term Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, James A; Teplitsky, Céline; Arroyo, Beatriz; Charmantier, Anne; Becker, Peter H; Birkhead, Tim R; Bize, Pierre; Blumstein, Daniel T; Bonenfant, Christophe; Boutin, Stan; Bushuev, Andrey; Cam, Emmanuelle; Cockburn, Andrew; Côté, Steeve D; Coulson, John C; Daunt, Francis; Dingemanse, Niels J; Doligez, Blandine; Drummond, Hugh; Espie, Richard H M; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Frentiu, Francesca; Fitzpatrick, John W; Furness, Robert W; Garant, Dany; Gauthier, Gilles; Grant, Peter R; Griesser, Michael; Gustafsson, Lars; Hansson, Bengt; Harris, Michael P; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellander, Petter; Korpimäki, Erkki; Krebs, Charles J; Lens, Luc; Linnell, John D C; Low, Matthew; McAdam, Andrew; Margalida, Antoni; Merilä, Juha; Møller, Anders P; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Nisbet, Ian C T; van Noordwijk, Arie J; Oro, Daniel; Pärt, Tomas; Pelletier, Fanie; Potti, Jaime; Pujol, Benoit; Réale, Denis; Rockwell, Robert F; Ropert-Coudert, Yan; Roulin, Alexandre; Sedinger, James S; Swenson, Jon E; Thébaud, Christophe; Visser, Marcel E; Wanless, Sarah; Westneat, David F; Wilson, Alastair J; Zedrosser, Andreas

2015-10-01

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

Science.gov (United States)

Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

2016-01-01

Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where

The Influence of Secular Trends in Body Height and Weight on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity among Chinese Children and Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Lian Guo; Sun, Li Li; Wu, Shao Wei; Yang, Yi De; Li, Xiao Hui; Wang, Zheng He; Wu, Lu; Wang, Fu Zhi; Ma, Jun

2016-12-01

To explore the influence of secular trends in body height and weight on the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents. The data were obtained from five cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health. Overweight/obesity was defined as BMI-for-age Z-score of per the Wold Health Organization (WHO) reference values. Body height and weight for each sex and age were standardized to those reported in 1985 (standardized height: SHY; standardized weight: SWY) and for each sex and year at age 7 (standardized height: SHA; standardized weight: SWA) using the Z-score method. The prevalence of overweight/obesity in Chinese children was 20.2% among boys and 10.7% among girls in 2010 and increased continuously from 1985 to 2010. Among boys and girls of normal weight, SHY and SHA were significantly greater than SWY and SWA, respectively (P overweight/obesity, SHY was significantly lower than SWY (P overweight boys aged 7-8 years and girls aged 7-9 years. SHY/SHW and SHA/SWA among normal-weight groups were greater than among overweight and obese groups (P overweight/obesity among Chinese children may be related to a rapid increase in body weight before age 9 and lack of secular increase in body height after age 12. Copyright © 2016 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

67

ABSTRACT. Arid and semiarid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible ...

Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Need, E.A.

1994-01-01

Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

[Civic religion, civil religion, secular religion. a historiographical investigation].

Science.gov (United States)

Boucheron, Patrick

2013-01-01

Because of its conceptual plasiticity, the term civic religion is now widely used by historians, particularly historians of the Middle Ages. Yet, as this article suggests, historians would do well to interrogate the relationships (which can be hidden) that this term bears to similar concepts such as Greek Roman civic religion, Enlightenment civil religion or even the secular religion that emerged in the work of 20(th) century thinkers.

Climate change and population dynamics at the tree line: the importance of long-term studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anfodillo T

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Temperature-limited ecosystems are believed to be extremely sensitive to global warming and the upward treeline migration is one of the most relevant phenomenon. Long term monitoring of demographic trends appears essential in order to understand possible effects of higher temperatures on cold ecosystems. Long-term monitoring of natality and mortality of a Pinus sylvestris population in the Swedish Scandes from 1973 to 2005 (Kullman 2007 showed that number of trees increased in the study plots due to higher natality rate, especially in the last decade. This reverses a natural trend of treeline decline and recession occurred in the past.

Out of time : the limits of secular critique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Randell-Moon, Holly

2011-01-01

Full Text Available A review of Talal Asad, Wendy Brown, Judith Butler, Saba Mahmood, 'Is critique secular? Blasphemy, injury, and free speech' and Michael Warner, Jonathan Vanantwerpen, and Craig Calhoun (eds, 'Varieties of secularism in a secular age'.

Profile of mood states and stress-related biochemical indices in long-term yoga practitioners

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sudo Nobuyuki

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have shown the short-term or intermediate-term practice of yoga to be useful for ameliorating several mental disorders and psychosomatic disorders. However, little is known about the long-term influences of yoga on the mental state or stress-related biochemical indices. If yoga training has a stress-reduction effect and also improves an individual's mental states for a long time, long-term yoga practitioners may have a better mental state and lower stress-related biochemical indices in comparison to non-experienced participants. This study simultaneously examined the differences in mental states and urinary stress-related biochemical indices between long-term yoga practitioners and non-experienced participants. Methods The participants were 38 healthy females with more than 2 years of experience with yoga (long-term yoga group and 37 age-matched healthy females who had not participated in yoga (control group. Their mental states were assessed using the Profile of Mood States (POMS questionnaire. The level of cortisol, 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG and biopyrrin in urine were used as stress-related biochemical indices. Results The average self-rated mental disturbance, tension-anxiety, anger-hostility, and fatigue scores of the long-term yoga group were lower than those of the control group. There was a trend toward a higher vigor score in the long-term yoga group than that in the control group. There were no significant differences in the scores for depression and confusion in the POMS between the two groups. The urine 8-OHdG concentration showed a trend toward to being lower in the long-term yoga group in comparison to the control group. There were no significant differences in the levels of urine biopyrrin or cortisol. Conclusions The present findings suggest that long-term yoga training can reduce the scores related to mental health indicators such as self-rated anxiety, anger, and fatigue.

Decreasing soil water Ca2+ reduces DOC adsorption in mineral soils: implications for long-term DOC trends in an upland forested catchment in southern Ontario, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Kerr, Jason Grainger; Eimers, M Catherine

2012-06-15

Positive trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration have been observed in surface waters throughout North America and northern Europe. Although adsorption in mineral soils is an important driver of DOC in upland streams, little is known about the potential for changes in DOC adsorption to contribute to these trends. We hypothesized that long-term declines in soil water Ca(2+) levels, in response to declining acid deposition, might influence DOC adsorption and that this could contribute to long-term DOC trends in an upland forested catchment in south-central Ontario, Canada. Between 1987 and 2009, DOC concentrations increased significantly (pDOC concentration (DOC(np)), which is a measure of the soil water DOC concentration at equilibrium with the soil, ranged from 1.27 to 3.75 mg L(-1) in B horizon soils. This was similar to the mean DOC concentrations of B horizon soil water (2.04-6.30 mg L(-1)) and stream water (2.20 mg L(-1)), indicating that soil and stream water DOC concentrations are controlled by equilibrium processes at the soil-water interface. Adsorption experiments using variable Ca(2+) concentrations demonstrated that as Ca(2+) decreased the DOC(np) increased (1.96 to 4.74 mg L(-1)), which was consistent with the observed negative correlation between DOC and Ca(2+) in B horizon soil water (pDOC adsorption (p>0.05), indicating that changes in DOC adsorption might be related to cation bridging. We conclude that declines in soil water Ca(2+) concentration can contribute to increasing DOC trends in upland streams by reducing DOC adsorption in mineral soils. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model approach to assess the long-term trends of indirect photochemistry in lake water. The case of Lake Maggiore (NW Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

Minella, Marco; Rogora, Michela; Vione, Davide; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio

2011-08-15

A model-based approach is here developed and applied to predict the long-term trends of indirect photochemical processes in the surface layer (5m water depth) of Lake Maggiore, NW Italy. For this lake, time series of the main parameters of photochemical importance that cover almost two decades are available. As a way to assess the relevant photochemical reactions, the modelled steady-state concentrations of important photogenerated transients ((•)OH, ³CDOM* and CO₃(-•)) were taken into account. A multivariate analysis approach was adopted to have an overview of the system, to emphasise relationships among chemical, photochemical and seasonal variables, and to highlight annual and long-term trends. Over the considered time period, because of the decrease of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content of water and of the increase of alkalinity, a significant increase is predicted for the steady-state concentrations of the radicals (•)OH and CO₃(-•). Therefore, the photochemical degradation processes that involve the two radical species would be enhanced. Another issue of potential photochemical importance is related to the winter maxima of nitrate (a photochemical (•)OH source) and the summer maxima of DOC ((•)OH sink and ³CDOM* source) in the lake water under consideration. From the combination of sunlight irradiance and chemical composition data, one predicts that the processes involving (•)OH and CO₃(-•) would be most important in spring, while the reactions involving ³CDOM* would be most important in summer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Secular Trends of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: The Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Register.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiò, Adriano; Mora, Gabriele; Moglia, Cristina; Manera, Umberto; Canosa, Antonio; Cammarosano, Stefania; Ilardi, Antonio; Bertuzzo, Davide; Bersano, Enrica; Cugnasco, Paolo; Grassano, Maurizio; Pisano, Fabrizio; Mazzini, Letizia; Calvo, Andrea

2017-09-01

This study reports the long-term epidemiologic trends of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) based on a prospective register. To examine the 20-year epidemiologic trends of ALS in the Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta regions of Italy. The Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Register for ALS (PARALS) is an epidemiologic prospective register that covers 2 Italian regions (population of 4 476 931 inhabitants according to the 2011 census) from January 1, 1995, through December 31, 2014. Case ascertainment is based on multiple sources (neurologic departments, hospital discharge archives, and mortality records). Incidence rates are age and sex standardized for the Italian population of the 2011 census. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was performed using a Poisson regression model. The primary study outcomes were long-term incidence and prevalence rates of ALS using a prospective design and their determinants. During the study period, a total of 2702 patients (mean [SD] age at onset, 65.7 [11.1] years; 1246 [46.1%] female and 1456 [53.9%] male) received a diagnosis of ALS between 1995 and 2014, corresponding to a crude annual incidence rate of 3.03 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 2.85-3.23) and an adjusted incidence rate of 2.78 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 2.57-2.96). The age-adjusted incidence rate increased in the 2 decades of the study (1995-2004: 2.66; 95% CI, 2.50-2.83; 2005-2014: 2.89; 95% CI, 2.71-3.07; P = .04), mostly in women. The adjusted rate ratio of men to women decreased from 1.27:1 (1995-2004) to 1.17:1 (2005-2014). The analysis of deviance for the APC regression models indicated that the drift variable is relevant in explaining the variation of ALS incidence rates over time in the overall population (change in deviance, 4.6553; P = .03) and in women (change in deviance, 3.8821; P = .05) but not in men (change in deviance, 0.77215; P = .38). A total of 479 patients with ALS were alive and had not undergone tracheostomy at the prevalence day

Long-term trends of native and non-native fish faunas in the American Southwest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olden, J. D.

2005-06-01

Full Text Available Environmental degradation and the proliferation of non-native fish species threaten the endemic, and highly unique fish faunas of the American Southwest. The present study examines long-term trends (> 160 years of fish species distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin and identifies those native species (n = 28 exhibiting the greatest rates of decline and those non-native species (n = 48 exhibiting the highest rates of spread. Among the fastest expanding invaders in the basin are red shiner (Cyprinella lutrensis, fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas, green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides, western mosquitofish (Gambussia affinis and channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus; species considered to be the most invasive in terms of their negative impacts on native fish communities. Interestingly, non-native species that have been recently introduced (1950+ have generally spread at substantially lower rates as compared to species introduced prior to this time (especially from 1920 to 1950, likely reflecting reductions in human-aided spread of species. We found general agreement between patterns of species decline and extant distribution sizes and official listing status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. ‘Endangered’ species have generally experienced greater declines and have smaller present-day distributions compared to ‘threatened’ species, which in turn have shown greater declines and smaller distributions than those species not currently listed. A number of notable exceptions did exist, however, and these may provide critical information to help guide the future listing of species (i.e., identification of candidates and the upgrading or downgrading of current listed species that are endemic to the Lower Colorado River Basin. The strong correlation between probability estimates of local extirpation and patterns of native species decline and present-day distributions suggest a possible proactive

Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

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Korinko M.D.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

Lessons learned from Three Mile Island (TMI), USNRC long-term trends, industry response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szalay, R.A.

1981-01-01

Studies resulting from Three Mile Island (TMI) showed that corrections were needed in information processing, operator training and procedures, and certain aspects of the safety review process. These have been undertaken by industry and NRC and the results are positive. New safety instructions have been set up. The Nuclear Safety Analysis Center (NSAC) is providing a focus for analysis of issues which have generic elements affecting a number of plants of similar or related design. The Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) is setting industry standards for training and certification of operators and supervisory personnel, and for training of the managerial chain which oversees safety practices. Changes in procedures and in some design features called for in the recommendations of the NRC Lessons Learned Task Force (NUREG-0578) have been simplemented by utilities. Other requirements included in the NRC Action Plan (NUREG-0660) and its companion document clarification of TMI Action Plan Requirements (NUREG-0737), are also being addressed. Improved operator training and emergency procedures provide a continuing opportunity to make safety gains. Problems remain to be faced in the regulatory and political arenas. The long-term licensing trend will be affected by the manner in which degraded core issues and the development of a safety goal proceed. The Industry Degraded Core Rulemaking (IDCOR) program has been undertaken to develop the nuclear industry's position in anticipation of an impending rulemaking. Both industry and NRC are working on the development of a safety goal and standard risk assessment methodology. (AF)

Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

2015-03-28

Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], pinfective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, pinfective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

Science.gov (United States)

Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

2015-08-01

Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szasz Thomas

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry.

Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry".

Science.gov (United States)

Szasz, Thomas

2006-04-25

The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry.

Diversity in OECD energy consumption: Achievements and long-term goals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heal, D.W.

1990-01-01

Energy consumption in the industrialized world has resumed a rising trend but has been moderated by increased energy efficiency. The demand for energy is also being spread more evenly over a variety of fuels. This paper provides a measure for diversity and examines the implications for energy prices, while reiterating the long-term goal of lower energy consumption

Secular trends in overweight and obesity among Icelandic adolescents: do parental education levels and family structure play a part?

Science.gov (United States)

Eidsdóttir, Sigridur Þ; Kristjánsson, Álfgeir l; Sigfúsdóttir, Inga D; Garber, Carol E; Allegrante, John P

2013-06-01

To investigate whether the secular trend in the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland varied by levels of parental education and family structure. Odds ratios were calculated from repeated population-based, cross-sectional surveys comprising cohorts of 16- to 20-year-old Icelandic adolescents attending junior colleges in 1992 (n=4,922), 2004 (n=11,031), 2007 (n=11,229), and 2010 (n=11,388). Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from self-reported weight and height and categorised as normal weight or overweight and obese, and examined in relation to parental education level and family structure. The odds of being overweight increased by 2.62 and 1.71 for boys and girls respectively over each of the survey time points. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased across all three subgroups (low, medium, and high) of parental education level. The probability of overweight across all years were consistently the highest for youths with parents in the low-education category followed by middle-educated and high-educated parental background (peducation backgrounds increased over time and was generally explained more by the fathers' education than by the mothers' education (pFamily structure was not associated with the prevalence of overweight and obesity in our data. Differences in parental levels of education are associated with accelerating trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland.

Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon Jin Park

2010-04-01

Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

Geomagnetic Core Field Secular Variation Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gillet, N.; Lesur, V.; Olsen, Nils

2010-01-01

highlight the difficulty of resolving the time variability of the high degree secular variation coefficients (i.e. the secular acceleration), arising for instance from the challenge to properly separate sources of internal and of external origin. In addition, the regularisation process may also result...

Fearing Secularism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sheikh, Mona Kanwal

Secularism and Beyond - Comparative Perspectives: International og interdisciplinær konference, 29. maj-1. juni, 2007Arrangeret af Anders Berg-Sørensen for "Religion i det 21. århundrede" i samarbejde med kolleger fraKøbenhavns Universitet og universiteterne i Wien og Birmingham...

Four billion years of ophiolites reveal secular trends in oceanic crust formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harald Furnes

2014-07-01

Full Text Available We combine a geological, geochemical and tectonic dataset from 118 ophiolite complexes of the major global Phanerozoic orogenic belts with similar datasets of ophiolites from 111 Precambrian greenstone belts to construct an overview of oceanic crust generation over 4 billion years. Geochemical discrimination systematics built on immobile trace elements reveal that the basaltic units of the Phanerozoic ophiolites are dominantly subduction-related (75%, linked to backarc processes and characterized by a strong MORB component, similar to ophiolites in Precambrian greenstone sequences (85%. The remaining 25% Phanerozoic subduction-unrelated ophiolites are mainly (74% of Mid-Ocean-Ridge type (MORB type, in contrast to the equal proportion of Rift/Continental Margin, Plume, and MORB type ophiolites in the Precambrian greenstone belts. Throughout the Phanerozoic there are large geochemical variations in major and trace elements, but for average element values calculated in 5 bins of 100 million year intervals there are no obvious secular trends. By contrast, basaltic units in the ophiolites of the Precambrian greenstones (calculated in 12 bins of 250 million years intervals, starting in late Paleo- to early Mesoproterozoic (ca. 2.0–1.8 Ga, exhibit an apparent decrease in the average values of incompatible elements such as Ti, P, Zr, Y and Nb, and an increase in the compatible elements Ni and Cr with deeper time to the end of the Archean and into the Hadean. These changes can be attributed to decreasing degrees of partial melting of the upper mantle from Hadean/Archean to Present. The onset of geochemical changes coincide with the timing of detectible changes in the structural architecture of the ophiolites such as greater volumes of gabbro and more common sheeted dyke complexes, and lesser occurrences of ocelli (varioles in the pillow lavas in ophiolites younger than 2 Ga. The global data from the Precambrian ophiolites, representative of nearly 50

Secular Evolution of Spiral Galaxies

Science.gov (United States)

2003-01-01

recombination (z=1000). Furthermore, the BigBang nucleosynthesis model also requires a signi cantamount of non- baryonic dark matter (Primack 1999) ifthe universe...momentum (as well as energy) outward. Associ-ated with this outward angular momentum transport isan expected secular redistribution of disk matter , co...mode, a secular transfer of energy andangular momentum between the disk matter and thedensity wave. The existence of the phase shift betweenthe

Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoetzl, H. [GSF-Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit, Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Winkler, R. [GSF-Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit, Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany)

1994-10-01

Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration was investigated from 1982 to 1992 at a semi-natural location 10 km north of Munich, southern Germany. For this period the continuous measurement yielded a long-term average of 8.6 Bq.m{sup -3} (arithmetic mean) and 6.9 Bq.m{sup -3} (geometric mean), from which an average annual effective dose of 0.14 mSv due to outdoor radon can be derived. A long-term trend of the radon concentration was not detectable over the whole period of observation. However, by time series analysis, a long-term cyclic pattern was identified with two maxima (1984-1986, 1989-1991) and two minima (1982-1983, 1987-1988). The seasonal pattern is characterized by an autumn maximum and an early summer minimum. On average, the seasonal maximum in October was found to be higher by a factor of 2 than the June minimum. The diurnal variation of the radon concentration shows a maximum in the early morning and a minimum in the afternoon. On average, this maximum is a factor of 2 higher than the minimum. In the long term a seasonal pattern was observed for diurnal variation, with an average diurnal maximum to minimum ratio of 1.5 in winter compared with 3.5 in the summer months. The radon concentration is correlated with a meteorological parameter (stagnation index) which takes into account horizontal and vertical exchange processes and the wash-out of aerosols in the lower atmosphere. (orig.)

Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoetzl, H.; Winkler, R.

1994-01-01

Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration was investigated from 1982 to 1992 at a semi-natural location 10 km north of Munich, southern Germany. For this period the continuous measurement yielded a long-term average of 8.6 Bq.m -3 (arithmetic mean) and 6.9 Bq.m -3 (geometric mean), from which an average annual effective dose of 0.14 mSv due to outdoor radon can be derived. A long-term trend of the radon concentration was not detectable over the whole period of observation. However, by time series analysis, a long-term cyclic pattern was identified with two maxima (1984-1986, 1989-1991) and two minima (1982-1983, 1987-1988). The seasonal pattern is characterized by an autumn maximum and an early summer minimum. On average, the seasonal maximum in October was found to be higher by a factor of 2 than the June minimum. The diurnal variation of the radon concentration shows a maximum in the early morning and a minimum in the afternoon. On average, this maximum is a factor of 2 higher than the minimum. In the long term a seasonal pattern was observed for diurnal variation, with an average diurnal maximum to minimum ratio of 1.5 in winter compared with 3.5 in the summer months. The radon concentration is correlated with a meteorological parameter (stagnation index) which takes into account horizontal and vertical exchange processes and the wash-out of aerosols in the lower atmosphere. (orig.)

Arab revolts and 'Civil State': a new term for old conflicts between Islamism and secularism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara De Poli

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The Arab revolts that erupted in late 2010, forcing from power the rulers of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, and dragging Syria through a ferocious civil war, reactivated the public debate on government in Islamic countries. In all those countries, after removing the authoritarian regimes (or fighting against them, the political arena saw a division into two main camps: Islamic parties and secularists; both claiming to stand for democracy. Within the political discourse of both sides a new concept began to play a pivotal role: that of the ’civil state’ – dawla madaniyya – a term which, however, renders different semantic interpretations according to the political actors involved, meaning both ‘no military or theocratic (but Islamic State’, and ‘secular State’. We’ll especially analyse the usage of the term ‘dawla madaniyya’ in Tunisia and Egypt since the beginning of the Arab revolts and up until 2014 and, for the same time period, the political practices of Islamist and secularist parties (government experiences, constituent assemblies focusing on the effectiveness of the dawla madaniyya paradigm for building a democratic state.

Short-term trends in the gas industry - Panorama 2008; Tendances a court terme de l'industrie gaziere - Panorama 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

In a context of high investment costs and rising energy prices, and recurring unseasonably warm temperatures in recent years, the growth of natural gas demand is slowing. On the supply side, and on the demand side too, new trends are emerging, with potentially powerful impact on the short-and long-term development of the industry.

Long-term perspectives on world metal use - a model-based approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren DP; Strengers BJ; Vries HJM de; MNV

1999-01-01

In this report, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This

Summary of preliminary step-trend analysis from the Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-termMonitoring Program—2004-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Legg, Kristin; Shanahan, Erin; Daley, Rob; Irvine, Kathryn M.

2014-01-01

In mixed and dominant stands, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) occurs in over two million acres within the six national forests and two national parks that comprise the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Currently, whitebark pine, an ecologically important species, is impacted by multiple ecological disturbances; white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), wildfire, and climate change all pose significant threats to the persistence of whitebark pine populations. Substantial declines in whitebark pine populations have been documented throughout its range.Under the auspices of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC), several agencies began a collaborative, long-term monitoring program to track and document the status of whitebark pine across the GYE. This alliance resulted in the formation of the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group (GYWPMWG), which consists of representatives from the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Montana State University (MSU). This groundbased monitoring program was initiated in 2004 and follows a peer-reviewed protocol (GYWPMWG 2011). The program is led by the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) of the National Park Service in coordination with multiple agencies. More information about this monitoring effort is available at: http://science. nature.nps.gov/im/units/gryn/monitor/whitebark_pine.cfm. The purpose of this report is to provide a draft summary of the first step-trend analysis for the interagency, long-term monitoring of whitebark pine health to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) as part of a synthesis of the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Due to the various stages of the analyses and reporting, this is the most efficient way to provide these results to the IGBST.

Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper; Carstensen, Jacob; Conley, Daniel J.

2017-01-01

the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we......Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over...

Long term trends in economic inequality : Lessons from colonial Botswana 1921–1974

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bolt, Jutta; Hillbom, Ellen

2016-01-01

This article contributes to the growing literature on colonial legacies influencing long-term development. It focuses on Botswana, a case where the post-independence diamond-led economy has been considered an economic success story, despite its high levels of inequality. Here it is argued that this

Aging Baby Boomers and the Rising Cost of Chronic Back Pain: Secular Trend Analysis of Longitudinal Medical Expenditures Panel Survey Data for Years 2000 to 2007

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Monica; Davis, Matthew A.; Stano, Miron; Whedon, James M.

2013-01-01

Objectives The purposes of this study were to analyze data from the longitudinal Medical Expenditures Panel Survey (MEPS) to evaluate the impact of an aging population on secular trends in back pain and chronicity and to provide estimates of treatment costs for patients who used only ambulatory services. Methods Using the MEPS 2-year longitudinal data for years 2000 to 2007, we analyzed data from all adult respondents. Of the total number of MEPS respondent records analyzed (N = 71 838), we identified 12 104 respondents with back pain and further categorized 3842 as chronic cases and 8262 as nonchronic cases. Results Secular trends from the MEPS data indicate that the prevalence of back pain has increased by 29%, whereas chronic back pain increased by 64%. The average age among all adults with back pain increased from 45.9 to 48.2 years; the average age among adults with chronic back pain increased from 48.5 to 52.2 years. Inflation-adjusted (to 2010 dollars) biennial expenditures on ambulatory services for chronic back pain increased by 129% over the same period, from $15.6 billion in 2000 to 2001 to $35.7 billion in 2006 to 2007. Conclusion The prevalence of back pain, especially chronic back pain, is increasing. To the extent that the growth in chronic back pain is caused, in part, by an aging population, the growth will likely continue or accelerate. With relatively high cost per adult with chronic back pain, total expenditures associated with back pain will correspondingly accelerate under existing treatment patterns. This carries implications for prioritizing health policy, clinical practice, and research efforts to improve care outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness and for health workforce planning. PMID:23380209

Southern hemisphere observations of a long-term decrease in F region altitude and thermospheric wind providing possible evidence for global thermospheric cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Jarvis, M. J.; Jenkins, B.; Rodgers, G. A.

1998-09-01

F region peak heights, derived from ionospheric scaled parameters through 38-year data series from both Argentine Islands (65°S, 64°W) and Port Stanley (52°S, 58°W) have been analyzed for signatures of secular change. Long-term changes in altitude, which vary with month and time of day, were found at both sites. The results can be interpreted either as a constant decrease in altitude combined with a decreasing thermospheric wind effect or as a constant decrease in altitude which is altitude-dependent. Both interpretations leave inconsistencies when the results from the two sites are compared. The estimated long-term decrease in altitude is of a similar order of magnitude to that which has been predicted to result in the thermosphere from anthropogenic change related to greenhouse gases. Other possibilities should not, however, be ruled out.

Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry"

OpenAIRE

Szasz, Thomas

2006-01-01

Abstract The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of m...

Feminist Practice and Solidarity in Secular Societies : Case Studies on Feminists Crossing Religious–Secular Divides in Politics and Practice in Antwerp, Belgium

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Brandt, H.P.

2015-01-01

In west European countries, public debates on migration, integration, and diversity are informed by particular understandings of secularism and the secular society. In our increasingly diverse societies, so the story goes, it is needed to implement a certain type of secularism and/or support

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Rubolini, Diego; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caffi, Mario; Brichetti, Pierandrea; Armiraglio, Stefano; Saino, Nicola

2007-08-01

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982-2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift ( Apus apus), nightingale ( Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica), and house martin ( Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling ( Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow ( Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Deteriorating water clarity in shallow waters: Evidence from long term MODIS and in-situ observations

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Pan, Delu

2018-06-01

Water clarity (Secchi disk depth: SDD), as a proxy of water transparency, provides important information on the light availability to the water or lake ecosystem. Shallow lakes have been experienced dramatic environmental and climatic change. This study demonstrated using combination of long-term MODIS and in-situ measurements to track the dynamics of SDD with these environmental and climate changes in shallow water environments. We selected a typical turbid shallow Lake Taihu as our case study. Based on MODIS-Aqua data, an empirical model for estimating SDD was developed and validated. Subsequently, we employed the proposed model to derive the spatial and temporal SDD distribution patterns of Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2015. Combining MODIS-derived SDD time series of 2003-2015 and long-term in-situ SDD observations dated back to 1993, we elucidated SDD long-term variation trends and driving mechanism. Deteriorating water clarity from the long-term SDD observations indicated that Lake Taihu became more and more turbid and water quality was decreasing. Increasing in cyanobacterial bloom area, as a result of decreasing in wind speed and eutrophication, may partially be responsible for the decreasing trend. A predicted future decrease in the wind speed in Lake Taihu region could enhance the formation of cyanobacterial blooms and consequently lead to a further decrease in water clarity. This study suggested that coupling remote sensing monitoring and long-term in-situ observations could provide robust evidence and new insights to elucidate long-term dynamics in aquatic ecosystem evolution.

Secular schools in Zaragoza (1885-1917

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfonso HEREDIA MANRIQUE

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This research has a very specific goal that is to know how many and which were secular schools that took place in Zaragoza city, in the period that goes from the first established at the end of the 19th century until the dictatorship of Miguel Primo de Rivera in 1923. Secular schools identified are described by the educational aspects most relevant to that appear in the scarce and scattered remains of them information, and mainly related to the urban location, organization and didactics, teachers and students. All these aspects allow us to glimpse something of how trying to implement his project of secular, rational, scientific education.

Feeding secularism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fischer, Johan

2005-01-01

life. He shows how Islamic organizations in Britain claim authority through halal in the interfaces of expanding markets, secularism, and the rights and demands of a growing group of Muslim consumers. These claims emerge in a society where powerful political discourses identify the veiling of Muslim...

A burn prevention program as a long-term investment: trends in burn injuries among Jews and Bedouin children in Israel.

Science.gov (United States)

Shani, E; Bahar-Fuchs, S A; Abu-Hammad, I; Friger, M; Rosenberg, L

2000-03-01

In order to broaden our long-term intervention efforts in elementary schools in Israel (underway since 1988) and to set priorities for further population-specific actions, we compared the pattern of burn injuries among two age groups (0-4; 5-14) of two ethnic groups of Jews and Bedouins admitted to a regional hospital between 1986 and 1995 (n = 1050). The findings indicated a significant downward trend, though somewhat nonlinear, in burn admissions among the older age groups. A relatively less favorable trend was observed for the younger age groups. Consistently across years, burn rates in the younger group of Bedouin children were the highest. For the 10-year period, a significant season by ethnic group variation in burn admissions was observed, with a peak in the spring and in the wintertime for the Jews and Bedouins, respectively. A significant trend of decrease, mostly among older children, in average lengths of hospital stay, was also evident. Yet, regardless of age group and across years, Bedouin children stayed longer in the hospital than Jewish children. The overall leading causes of injury (for 1992-1995) were hot liquids (69%), fire (17%), chemicals (9.5%) and contact (2%). In our view, there is a need to address at-risk populations through environmental, community and family-oriented interventions and to venture beyond the pathogenic factors to the investigation of the salutary factors of health under diverse life conditions.

Examining secular trends and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling: a new methodological approach illustrated with hospital discharge data on myocardial infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundbye-Christensen, S; Dethlefsen, C; Gorst-Rasmussen, A; Fischer, T; Schønheyder, H C; Rothman, K J; Sørensen, H T

2009-01-01

Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation, and overdispersion. The model resembles an ordinary time series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. During the 1983-1999 period, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry for the county of North Jutland, Denmark. Records were updated daily. A dynamic model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicated a good model fit. The analysis conducted with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with above-average influenza A activity. On average the dynamic model estimated a higher peak-to-trough ratio than traditional models, and showed gradual changes in seasonal patterns. Analyses conducted with this model provide insights not available from more traditional approaches.

Long-term trends in foF2: their estimating and origin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Wan

2008-03-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with two problems, methods of foF2 trend determination and origin of trends in foF2, both being controversial in current literature. We found that various regression-based methods and artificial neural network-based method of Yue et al. (2006 provided comparable results within uncertainties caused mainly by various ways of removing/suppressing the dominant solar cycle effect. The role of geomagnetic activity in the observed trends in foF2 was probably substantial and might be still even rather dominant in the last quarter of the 20th century.

Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Zhang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB. The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.

Long-term outcomes of young people who attempted suicide

OpenAIRE

Grisham, Jessica R; Williams, Alishia D

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Suicidal behavior has increased since the onset of the global recession, a trend that may have long-term health and social implications. OBJECTIVE To test whether suicide attempts among young people signal increased risk for later poor health and social functioning above and beyond a preexisting psychiatric disorder. DESIGN We followed up a cohort of young people and assessed multiple aspects of their health and social functioning as they approached midlife. Outcomes among individu...

HIV-related politics in long-term perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, S R

1998-06-01

Some long-term, large-scale socio-economic changes may affect the politics of HIV and other emerging viruses such as hepatitis C. It is useful to ask why the potential peace dividend of the early 1990s failed to provide adequate resources for HIV-related social and medical service delivery in developed or developing nations. This failure can be understood by looking at long-term global economic trends and the pressures they put on governments and corporations. They have produced a period in which fundamental issues of political and economic structure are at stake and, often, the response is a divide-and-rule politics to promote stability. National politics differ in terms of the extent to which such a 'politics of scapegoating' is institutionalized and in terms of which groups are scapegoated. Groups such as drug injectors, gay and bisexual men and sex traders are particularly likely to be targeted both by the scapegoaters and by HIV. Given this framework, how should public health professionals and activists engaged in HIV-related issues respond? Under what circumstances should we orient efforts upwards towards corporate, political or bureaucratic leaders? Under what circumstances, and how, should we orient towards popular forces? Relatedly, we need to consider an issue we often ignore: What do we have to offer potential allies? That is, in terms of their goals, philosophies and needs, why should they ally with us?

Long-term influence of asteroids on planet longitudes and chaotic dynamics of the solar system

Science.gov (United States)

Woillez, E.; Bouchet, F.

2017-11-01

Over timescales much longer than an orbital period, the solar system exhibits large-scale chaotic behavior and can thus be viewed as a stochastic dynamical system. The aim of the present paper is to compare different sources of stochasticity in the solar system. More precisely we studied the importance of the long term influence of asteroids on the chaotic dynamics of the solar system. We show that the effects of asteroids on planets is similar to a white noise process, when those effects are considered on a timescale much larger than the correlation time τϕ ≃ 104 yr of asteroid trajectories. We computed the timescale τe after which the effects of the stochastic evolution of the asteroids lead to a loss of information for the initial conditions of the perturbed Laplace-Lagrange secular dynamics. The order of magnitude of this timescale is precisely determined by theoretical argument, and we find that τe ≃ 104 Myr. Although comparable to the full main-sequence lifetime of the sun, this timescale is considerably longer than the Lyapunov time τI ≃ 10 Myr of the solar system without asteroids. This shows that the external sources of chaos arise as a small perturbation in the stochastic secular behavior of the solar system, rather due to intrinsic chaos.

Unsafe Gods: Security, Secularism and Schooling

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Lynn

2014-01-01

This book makes the compelling argument that religion can be complicit in conflict and that a new secularism is vital to foster security. Using insights from complexity science, it shows how dynamic secularism can be used to accommodate diverse faiths and beliefs within worldly politics. Exploration of the interplay of religion and education in…

[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

Science.gov (United States)

Plancke, L; Amariei, A

2017-02-01

Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

A New Long Term Assessment of Energy Return on Investment (EROI for U.S. Oil and Gas Discovery and Production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cutler J. Cleveland

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Oil and gas are the main sources of energy in the United States. Part of their appeal is the high Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI when procuring them. We assessed data from the United States Bureau of the Census of Mineral Industries, the Energy Information Administration (EIA, the Oil and Gas Journal for the years 1919–2007 and from oil analyst Jean Laherrere to derive EROI for both finding and producing oil and gas. We found two general patterns in the relation of energy gains compared to energy costs: a gradual secular decrease in EROI and an inverse relation to drilling effort. EROI for finding oil and gas decreased exponentially from 1200:1 in 1919 to 5:1 in 2007. The EROI for production of the oil and gas industry was about 20:1 from 1919 to 1972, declined to about 8:1 in 1982 when peak drilling occurred, recovered to about 17:1 from 1986–2002 and declined sharply to about 11:1 in the mid to late 2000s. The slowly declining secular trend has been partly masked by changing effort: the lower the intensity of drilling, the higher the EROI compared to the secular trend. Fuel consumption within the oil and gas industry grew continuously from 1919 through the early 1980s, declined in the mid-1990s, and has increased recently, not surprisingly linked to the increased cost of finding and extracting oil.

Youth Suicide Trends in Finland, 1969-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Lahti, Anniina; Rasanen, Pirkko; Riala, Kaisa; Keranen, Sirpa; Hakko, Helina

2011-01-01

Background: There are only a few recent studies on secular trends in child and adolescent suicides. We examine here trends in rates and methods of suicide among young people in Finland, where suicide rates at these ages are among the highest in the world. Methods: The data, obtained from Statistics Finland, consisted of all suicides (n = 901)…

Explaining Global Secularity: Existential Security or Education?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claude M. J. Braun

2012-11-01

Full Text Available At the time of data analysis for this report there were 193 countries in the world. Various institutions – the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the CIA, the World Values Survey, Gallup, and many others – have performed sophisticated statistical analyses on cross-national data. The present investigation demonstrates that valid and reliable data concerning religiosity and secularity exist for most countries and that these data are comparable. Cross-national data relating to social, political, economic and cultural aspects of life were tested for correlation with religiosity/secularity. In contrast to the most widely accepted general account of secularity, the Existential Security Framework (ESF; Norris & Inglehart, 2004, secularity was not most highly related to material security, though these were highly related. Rather, secularity was most strongly related to the degree of formal education attained. Material security explained no significant variance beyond education. Thus, religion’s primary function in the world today is being replaced, not so much by the pseudo-materialistic supplication for better living conditions as posited by the ESF, but by contemporary education – extensive knowledge of contemporary cultures, philosophy, modes of thought or processes of reasoning.

Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. T. Lennartz

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

Effects of trawl selectivity and genetic parameters on fish body length under long-term trawling

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yang; Sun, Peng; Cui, He; Sheng, Huaxiang; Zhao, Fenfang; Tang, Yanli; Chen, Zelin

2015-10-01

Long-term fishing pressure affects the biological characteristics of exploited fish stocks. The biological characteristics of hairtail ( Trichiurus lepturus) in the East China Sea are unable to recover because of long-term trawling. Fishing induces evolutionary effects on the fish's biological characteristics. Evidence of these changes includes small size at age, a shift to earlier age structure, and early maturation. Natural and artificial selection usually affect the fish's life history. Selection can induce different chances of reproduction, and individual fish can give a different genetic contribution to the next generation. In this study, analysis of time-dependent probability of significance and test of sensitivity were used to explore the effects of fish exploitation rate, mesh size, and heritability with long-term trawling. Results showed that fishing parameters were important drivers to exploited fish population. However, genetic traits altered by fishing were slow, and the changes in biological characteristics were weaker than those caused by fishing selection. Exploitation rate and mesh size exhibited similar evolutionary trend tendency under long-term fishing. The time-dependent probability of significance trend showed a gradual growth and tended to be stable. Therefore, the direction of fishing-induced evolution and successful management of fish species require considerable attention to contribute to sustainable fisheries in China.

Long-term trends and survival analysis of esophageal and gastric cancer in Yangzhong, 1991-2013.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhaolai Hua

Full Text Available To describe the long-term trends of the incidence, mortality and survival of upper digestive tract cancers in a high-risk area of China.We extracted esophageal and gastric cancer cases diagnosed from 1991 to 2013 through the Yangzhong Cancer Registry and calculated the crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. Cancer trends were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program and were reported using the annual percentage change (APC. The cancer-specific survival rates were evaluated and compared between groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test.The age-standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer declined from 107.06 per 100,000 person-years (male: 118.05 per 100,000 person-years; female: 97.42 per 100,000 person-years in 1991 to 37.04 per 100,000 person-years (male: 46.43 per 100,000 person-years; female: 27.26 per 100,000 person-years in 2013, with an APC of -2.5% (95% confidence interval (CI: -3.4%, -1.5% for males and -4.9% (95% CI:-5.8%, -3.9% for females. The age-standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer was 165.11 per 100,000 person-years (male: 225.39 per 100,000 person-years; female: 113.34 per 100,000 person-years in 1991 and 53.46 per 100,000 person-years (male: 76.51 per 100,000 person-years; female: 32.43 per 100,000 person-years in 2013, with the APC of -3.6% (95% CI: -4.5%, -2.7% for males and -4.8% (95% CI: -5.7%, -3.9% for females. The median survival time was 3.0 years for patients with esophageal or gastric cancer. Cancer cases detected after 2004 had a better prognosis.The age-standardized incidence rates of both esophageal and gastric cancer continuously decreased since 1991 through 2013, whereas the mortality rate remained stable before 2004 and significantly declined following the massive endoscopic screening program initiated in 2004. The survival probability of patients with esophageal and gastric cancer has improved obviously in recent decades.

Constitutionalizing secularism, alternative secularisms or liberal-democratic constitutionalism?
A critical reading of some Turkish, ECtHR and Indian Supreme Court cases on ‘secularism’

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veit Bader

2010-11-01

Full Text Available In recent debates on the constitutional status of 'secularism' we can discern three positions. The first tries to overcome the absence of 'secularism' in most liberal-democratic constitutions by developing a more robust theory of constitutional secularism. The second develops theories of 'alternative secularisms'. The third, defended in this article, argues that we should drop secularism as a 'cacophonous' concept from our constitutional and legal language and replace it by liberal-democratic constitutionalism. I develop an analytical taxonomy of twelve different meanings of 'secularism' based on a comparative study of Turkish and Indian Supreme Court cases on secularism, and demonstrate that they are incompatible with each other and with the hard core of liberal-democratic constitutions. Next, I criticize the respective rulings in the Turkish and Indian context. Particularly in 'militant democracies', the appeal to a principle of 'secularism' turns out to be inimical to the liberal and to the democratic 'constitutional essentials'. I end with some normative recommendations on the role of constitutional review and judicial activism.

Residual Fatigue Properties of Asphalt Pavement after Long-Term Field Service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peide Cui

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Asphalt pavement is widely used for expressways due to its advantages of flexibility, low cost, and easy maintenance. However, pavement failures, including cracking, raveling, and potholes, will appear after long-term service. This research evaluated the residual fatigue properties of asphalt pavement after long-term field service. Fatigue behavior of specimens with different pavement failure types, traffic load, service time, and layers were collected and characterized. Results indicate that after long-term field service, surface layer has a longer fatigue life under small stress levels, but shorter fatigue life under large stress levels. Longer service time results in greater sensitivity to loading stress, while heavier traffic results in shorter fatigue life. Surface and underneath layers present very close fatigue trend lines in some areas, indicating that the fatigue behavior of asphalt mixture in surface and underneath layers are aged to the same extent after eight to ten years of field service.

Human rights and faith: a ‘world-wide secular religion’?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henri Féron

2014-12-01

Full Text Available While human rights are meant to represent a secular morality, there are surprising parallels to be drawn with religions. Perhaps most striking is the realization that human rights are actually based on faith, as was already recognized at the proclamation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. This dependence on faith has deep implications for the way we understand and propagate them, because it puts rights in situations of epistemological stalemate vis-à-vis other cultural, religious, or ideological moral systems. This paper proposes to compare human rights doctrine to a religion to identify potential threats to its long-term credibility, and how to address them. In particular, it explains why coercive propagation of rights risks degenerating into a form of self-contradictory fundamentalism. Ultimately, the article argues for a return to the values of tolerance and mutual respect that rights actually stand for.

Moderate Secularism, Difference Sensitivity and Contextualism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lægaard, Sune

2009-01-01

The article is a rejoinder to Tariq Modood's reply (Politics, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2009) to my article 'Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality' (Politics, Vol 28, No. 3, 2008).......The article is a rejoinder to Tariq Modood's reply (Politics, Vol. 29, No. 1, 2009) to my article 'Moderate Secularism and Multicultural Equality' (Politics, Vol 28, No. 3, 2008)....

Concept and Indications of Secular State

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philina N. V.

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the elaborate analysis of the concept and indications of a secular state. The paper has the interdisciplinary character and it is written on the verge of constitutional law, theory of state administration, philosophy, political science. The comparative analysis between the constitutional indicators of a secular state and democracy realia has been conducted

Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy V.P. Bliss

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

Secular gains in fluid intelligence: evidence from the Culture-Fair intelligence test.

Science.gov (United States)

Colom, Roberto; García-López, Oscar

2003-01-01

There is no doubt about the reality of the secular increase in cognitive test scores. However, there is disagreement about a key issue: does the observed increase reflect a genuine upward trend in intelligence? Evidence from the Raven test is clear, although there are some doubts about its adequacy as a fine-grained measure of fluid intelligence. Evidence from the so-called 'method of correlated vectors' is much less clear. When a crystallized battery is considered, the results leave little doubt: the increase does not reflect gains in general intelligence. However, when a fluid battery is analysed, the increase does reflect gains in general intelligence. The present study uses one of the best available measures of fluid intelligence (the Culture-Fair intelligence test) to provide new evidence for the secular increase in fluid intelligence, beyond the findings from the Raven test and the method of correlated vectors. A total of 4498 Spanish high school students and high school graduates were tested within a time interval of 20 and 23 years, respectively. The results show that there is a clear upward trend in intelligence. Moreover, students show an average increase equivalent to 6 IQ points, while graduates show an average increase of 4 IQ points. Therefore, more selected people (graduates) show a smaller increase than less selected people (students). Some implications are discussed.

Autonomous long-term gamma-spectrometric monitoring of submarine groundwater discharge trends in Hawaii

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dulai, H.; Kameník, Jan; Waters, C. A.; Kennedy, J.; Babinec, J.; Jolly, J.; Williamson, M.

2016-01-01

Roč. 307, č. 3 (2016), s. 1865-1870 ISSN 0236-5731. [10th International Conference on Methods and Applications of Radioanalytical Chemistry (MARC). Kailua Kona, 12.04.2015-17.04.2015] Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : submarine groundwater discharge * long-term SGD monitoring * underwater gammaspectrometry Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation Impact factor: 1.282, year: 2016

Secular trends: 10 and 20-year comparisons of sexual maturation among students. http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2012v14n6p680

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Mateus Farias

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to verify the secular trends of sexual matu­ration of students between 11 and 15 years old, during a period of 10 and 20 years. The sample was composed by 1,002 students aged between 11 and 15 years; 536 boys (12.6±1.3 years old and 466 girls (12.5±1.2 years old who took part in the Ilhabela Mixed-Longitudinal Project on Growth, Development, and Physical Fitness. The students’ assessment period occurred in 1990/91 (initial, 2000/01 (10 years later, and 2009/10 (20 years later. Sexual maturation was analyzed according to the self-assessment method and age at menarche (month and year was collected retrospectively. The statistical analysis used was: one-way ANOVA, and Tukey’s post-hoc test. The level of significance was p<0.01. The onset of menarche in the initial analysis was at: 12.5±1.2 years old; in the 2000/01 group: 12.3±1.0 years old (Δ=-1.6%, and in the 2009/10 group: 12.2±1.0 years old (Δ=-2.4%. Although there was a tendency towards reduction in age at menarche along the periods in­vestigated, differences were not significant. There were significant differences only in genitals (G4, and pubic hair (P3 in boys after 10 and 20 years. In the same period, it did not occur any significant difference in maturational stages for girls. In conclusion, there was no secular trend of secondary sexual characteristics in boys (genital and pubic hair and girls (breast and pubic hair and in age at menarche over 10 and 20 years.

Mechanisms of the multi-secular atmospheric corrosion of ferrous alloys: The case of the Metz cathedral reinforcements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouchar, Marie

2015-01-01

The study of the mechanisms of the multi-secular atmospheric corrosion of ferrous alloys has various applications, from the preservation and restoration of cultural heritage metals, to the evaluation of their long term behaviour, specifically when they are used for the storage containers surrounding nuclear wastes. The study of the corrosion product layers (CPL) developed during 5 centuries on the Metz cathedral reinforcements brings new results for a better understanding of the complex processes involved in the formation of the atmospheric CPL. The phases and chemical elements constituting the CPL of these reinforcements were characterized at the micrometric scale (μDRX, Raman μ-spectroscopy (μRS), SEM-EDS). Results specifically showed that these CPL differ from other multi-secular systems previously studied by their very high content in ferri-hydrite (5Fe 2 O 3 , 9H 2 O). This very reactive phase is distributed in the whole CPL and mixed at the microscopic scale with goethite (a-FeOOH) and lepidocrocite (g-FeOOH). Diffusion experiments of bromide ions followed by in situ X-ray μ-fluorescence allowed a better understanding of the transport of dissolved species in the porous network of the CPL. Furthermore, a test of the corrosion system behavior in conditions simulating the wetting stage of the RH cycle of atmospheric corrosion, also followed in situ by μRS, highlighted the reduction of ferri-hydrite at the metal/CPL interface. These results allowed to verify for the first time a fundamental hypothesis about the mechanisms of very long term atmospheric corrosion. Finally, re-corrosion experiments of the corrosion system were monitored in a climatic chamber simulating accelerated atmospheric cycles in an 18 O-labelled environment. Then the detection of the 18 O isotope linked to the precipitated phases, by nuclear reaction analysis using a nuclear microprobe, allowed to localise the formation sites of the new corrosion products. All these results improve the

Causes of death among long-term employees of Chalk River Laboratories, 1966-1989

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werner, M.M.; Myers, D.K.

1990-11-01

Data on mortality among long-term employees of Chalk River Laboratories to 1989 December 31 are reported. The 1988 Hare report, entitled The Safety of Ontario's Nuclear Power Reactors, noted that there had been a steady rise in standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for cancer among these employees in the last three successive five-year periods from 1971-75 to 1981-85. None of the SMRs was significantly different from unity; however, the apparent trend could be indicative of the development of latent cancers. The present report was prepared to see if that increasing trend in cancer SMRs continued. In the years 1986-89, the SMR for cancer among long-term male employees was exceptionally low. The wide fluctuations seen in our data over time are likely anomalies arising from the small size of the study group rather than problems arising from radiation exposures on site

Long-term trends of changes in pine and oak foliar nitrogen metabolism in response to chronic nitrogen amendments at Harvard Forest, MA.

Science.gov (United States)

Minocha, Rakesh; Turlapati, Swathi A; Long, Stephanie; McDowell, William H; Minocha, Subhash C

2015-08-01

We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements were analyzed for control, low N (LN, 50 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1)) and high N (HN, 150 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1)) treatments. In the pine stands, partitioning of excess N into foliar PAs and AAs increased with both N treatments until 2002. By 2005, several of these effects on N metabolites disappeared for HN, and by 2008 they were mostly observed for LN plot. A significant decline in foliar Ca and P was observed mostly with HN for a few years until 2005. However, sapwood data actually showed an increase in Ca, Mg and Mn and no change in PAs in the HN plot for 2008, while AAs data revealed trends that were generally similar to foliage for 2008. Concomitant with these changes, mortality data revealed a large number of dead trees in HN pine plots by 2002; the mortality rate started to decline by 2005. Oak trees in the hardwood plot did not exhibit any major changes in PAs, AAs, nutrients and mortality rate with LN treatment, indicating that oak trees were able to tolerate the yearly doses of 50 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1). However, HN trees suffered from physiological and nutritional stress along with increased mortality in 2008. In this case also, foliar data were supported by the sapwood data. Overall, both low and high N applications resulted in greater physiological stress to the pine trees than the oaks. In general, the time course of changes in metabolic data are in agreement with the published reports on changes in soil chemistry and microbial community structure, rates of soil carbon sequestration and production of woody biomass for this chronic N study. This correspondence of selected metabolites

Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

2005-12-15

Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

2005-01-01

Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

Patterns of Change in Interpersonal Problems During and After Short-term and Long-term Psychodynamic Group Therapy: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Fjeldstad, Anette; Høglend, Per; Lorentzen, Steinar

2017-05-01

In this study, we compared the patterns of change in interpersonal problems between short-term and long-term psychodynamic group therapy. A total of 167 outpatients with mixed diagnoses were randomized to 20 or 80 weekly sessions of group therapy. Interpersonal problems were assessed with the Inventory of Interpersonal Problems at six time points during the 3-year study period. Using linear mixed models, change was linearly modelled in two steps. Earlier (within the first 6 months) and later (during the last 2.5 years) changes in five subscales were estimated. Contrary to what we expected, short-term therapy induced a significantly larger early change than long-term therapy on the cold subscale and there was a trend on the socially avoidant subscale, using a Bonferroni-adjusted alpha. There was no significant difference between short-term and long-term group therapy for improving problems in the areas cold, socially avoidant, nonassertive, exploitable, and overly nurturant over the 3 years.

Modeling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

Science.gov (United States)

Michtchenko, T. A.; Rodríguez, A.

2011-10-01

The secular regime of motion of multi-planetary systems is universal; in contrast with the 'accidental' resonant motion, characteristic only for specific configurations of the planets, secular motion is present everywhere in phase space, even inside the resonant region. The secular behavior of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces is the principal subject of this study, particularly, the case when the dissipative forces affect the planetary semi-major axes and the planets move inward/outward the central star, the process known as planet migration. Based on the fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion is determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

Long-term trends of surface-water mercury and methylmercury concentrations downstream of historic mining within the Carson River watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Morway, Eric D; Thodal, Carl E; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark

2017-10-01

The Carson River is a vital water resource for local municipalities and migratory birds travelling the Pacific Flyway. Historic mining practices that used mercury (Hg) to extract gold from Comstock Lode ore has left much of the river system heavily contaminated with Hg, a practice that continues in many parts of the world today. Between 1998 and 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) collected and analyzed Carson River water for Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations resulting in a sixteen year record of unfiltered total mercury (uf.THg), filtered (dissolved) Hg (f.THg), total methylmercury (uf.MeHg), filtered MeHg (f.MeHg), and particulate-bound THg (p.THg) and MeHg (p.MeHg) concentrations. This represents one of the longest continuous records of Hg speciation data for any riverine system, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate long-term trends in concentrations and annual loads. During the period of analysis, uf.THg concentration and load trended downward at rates of -0.85% and -1.8% per year, respectively. Conversely, the f.THg concentration increased at a rate of 1.7% per year between 1998 and 2005, and 4.9% per year between 2005 and 2013. Trends in flow-normalized partition coefficients for both Hg and MeHg suggest a statistically significant shift from the particulate to the filtered phase. The upwardly accelerating f.THg concentration and observed shift from the solid phase to the aqueous phase among the pools of Hg and MeHg within the river water column signals an increased risk of deteriorating ecological conditions in the lower basin with respect to Hg contamination. More broadly, the 16-year trend analysis, completed 140 years after the commencement of major Hg releases to the Carson River, provides a poignant example of the ongoing legacy left behind by gold and silver mining techniques that relied on Hg amalgamation, and a cautionary tale for regions still pursuing the practice in other countries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Long-Term Symbolic Learning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

2007-01-01

What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

Long-term variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative effects in Northern Finland

Science.gov (United States)

Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvärinen, Antti; Asmi, Eija; Hatakka, Juha; Viisanen, Yrjö

2017-04-01

We introduce long term dataset of aerosol scattering and absorption properties and combined aerosol optical properties measured in Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Norhern Finland. The station is located 170 km north of the Arctic Circle. The station is affected by both pristine Arctic air masses as well as long transported air pollution from northern Europe. We studied the optical properties of aerosols and their radiative effects in continental and marine air masses, including seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The average (median) scattering coefficient, backscattering fraction, absorption coefficient and single scattering albedo at the wavelength of 550 nm were 7.9 (4.4) 1/Mm, 0.13 (0.12), 0.74 (0.35) 1/Mm and 0.92 (0.93), respectively. We observed clear seasonal cycles in these variables, the scattering coefficient having high values during summer and low in fall, and absorption coefficient having high values during winter and low in fall. We found that the high values of the absorption coefficient and low values of the single scattering albedo were related to continental air masses from lower latitudes. These aerosols can induce an additional effect on the surface albedo and melting of snow. We observed the signal of the Arctic haze in marine (northern) air masses during March and April. The haze increased the value of the absorption coefficient by almost 80% and that of the scattering coefficient by about 50% compared with the annual-average values. We did not observe any long-term trend in the scattering coefficient, while our analysis showed a clear decreasing trend in the backscattering fraction and scattering Ångström exponent during winter. We also observed clear relationship with temperature and aerosol scattering coefficient. We will present also how these different features affects to aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Analysis on 'new fundamentals' and range of oil price trend in the long run

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rui, Chen

2010-09-15

The range of trend of oil price will be decided by marginal production cost of crude oil and production cost of alternative energy consumed as transportation fuel on a large scale. The former factor determines the lower limit and the latter determines the upper limit of oil price. financial factors and the value of USD will not only affect the short-term change of oil price, they may become fundamentals factors that exert influence on the mid-long term change of oil price, namely, New Fundamentals, which will determine the fluctuation degree of oil price in the long run.

The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis

OpenAIRE

Sanidas, Elias

2005-01-01

The Australian dollar’s exchange rate (mainly in relation to the American dollar) has received a considerable attention in research and several models have been proposed to explain its trend and fluctuations. Thus, as a conclusion of this research we can say that this commodity currency very much depends on the terms of trade which in turn depend on commodity prices. The present paper is based on this conclusion and hence proposes the possibility that the Australian dollar’s behavior is overw...

Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Barr, Miya N.; Davis, Jerri V.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius

Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Orlowsky

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation-based datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa. Also for the future, projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI and soil moisture (SMA drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However, projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends towards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological and soil moisture drought reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs generally becomes the dominant source of spread by the end of the 21st century, especially for soil moisture drought. In comparison, the uncertainty from Green-House Gas (GHG concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source

There is a Sexular Body: Introducing a Material Approach to the Secular

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jelle Wiering

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This article calls for more ‘bottom-up inquiry’ into the secular, departing from the assumption that it features normative ideologies and practices that dominate current societies. I plea for collecting and analyzing manifestations of the secular, as the secular as an phenomenon in society is surprisingly unexplored. To stimulate such inquiry, I suggest a material approach to the secular, as it will provide researchers with tools to conduct empirical research on the secular in contemporary societies. Inspired by Joan Scott, Charles Hirschkind, and Talal Asad, this article explores the notion of a Dutch ‘sexular’ body: a body which affective-gestural repertoires, limited here to the context of sexuality, people in society (historically associate with the secular. I conclude by arguing that a material approach to the secular will contribute to (1 obtaining a more comprehensive understanding of the secular, including its cultural conceptualizations and manifestations, and (2 clarifying, and hence facing the normativity the secular imposes on the people living in secular societies.

Long-term evolution of highly alkaline steel slag drainage waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, Alex L; Mayes, William M

2015-07-01

The disposal of slag generated by the steel industry can have negative consequences upon the surrounding aquatic environment by the generation of high pH waters, leaching of potentially problematic trace metals, and rapid rates of calcite precipitation which smother benthic habitats. A 36-year dataset was collated from the long-term ambient monitoring of physicochemical parameters and elemental concentrations of samples from two steel slag leachate-affected watercourses in northern England. Waters were typified by elevated pH (>10), high alkalinity, and were rich in dissolved metals (e.g. calcium (Ca), aluminium (Al), and zinc (Zn)). Long-term trend analysis was performed upon pH, alkalinity, and Ca concentration which, in addition to Ca flux calculations, were used to highlight the longevity of pollution arising as a result of the dumping and subsequent leaching of steel slags. Declines in calcium and alkalinity have been modest over the monitoring period and not accompanied by significant declines in water pH. If the monotonic trends of decline in alkalinity and calcium continue in the largest of the receiving streams, it will be in the region of 50-80 years before calcite precipitation would be expected to be close to baseline levels, where ecological impacts would be negligible.

Long-term (1993-2013) changes in macrozooplankton off the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Steinberg, Deborah K.; Ruck, Kate E.; Gleiber, Miram R.; Garzio, Lori M.; Cope, Joseph S.; Bernard, Kim S.; Stammerjohn, Sharon E.; Schofield, Oscar M. E.; Quetin, Langdon B.; Ross, Robin M.

2015-07-01

The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and where a high apex predator biomass is supported in large part by macrozooplankton. We examined trends in summer (January-February) abundance of major taxa of macrozooplankton along the WAP over two decades (1993-2013) and their relationship with environmental parameters (sea ice, atmospheric climate indices, sea surface temperature, and phytoplankton biomass and productivity). Macrozooplankton were collected from the top 120 m of the water column in a mid-Peninsula study region divided into latitudinal (North, South, and Far South) and cross-shelf (coastal, shelf, slope) sub-regions. Trends for krill species included a 5-year cycle in abundance peaks (positive anomalies) for Euphausia superba, but no directional long-term trend, and an increase in Thysanoessa macrura in the North; variability in both species was strongly influenced by primary production 2-years prior. E. crystallorophias abundance was best explained by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), and was more abundant in higher ice conditions. The salp Salpa thompsoni and thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina cycled between negative and positive anomalies in the North, but showed increasing positive anomalies in the South over time. Variation in salp and pteropod abundance was best explained by SAM and the MEI, respectively, and both species were more abundant in lower ice conditions. There was a long-term increase in some carnivorous gelatinous zooplankton (polychaete worm Tomopteris spp.) and amphipods. Abundance of Pseudosagitta spp. chaetognaths was closely related to SAM, with higher abundance tied to lower ice conditions. Long-term changes and sub-decadal cycles of WAP macrozooplankton community composition may affect energy transfer to higher trophic levels, and alter biogeochemical cycling in this seasonally productive and sensitive polar ecosystem.

The Role of Interreligious and Interfaith Dialogue in the Post-Secular World

OpenAIRE

Biljana Popovska; Zhanet Ristoska; Pablo Payet

2017-01-01

Today, western liberal democratic societies are secular, or in other words, religion is set apart from the state. However, the beginning of the 21st century has seen a re-politicizing of the religion. This paper argues that religion plays an important role in current global politics and events. Moreover, it has been used as tool to recruit masses for a wrong cause. Hence, Interreligious and interfaith dialog can play a role of catalysts and a future trend in cultural diplomacy. The paper prov...

Varieties of Secularism in Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

of the North Atlantic rim. This anthology seeks to begin that task. It does so by suggesting that the kind of secularity described by Taylor is only one amongst others. By attending to the shifting relationship between proper religion and ‘bad faiths’; between politically valorised and embarrassing spiritual...... phenomena; between the new visibilities and silences of magic, ancestors, and religion in democratic politics, this book seeks to outline the particular formations of secularism that have become possible in Asia from China to Indonesia and from Bahrain to Timor-Leste....

Long-term variability of precipitation in Republic of Macedonia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slavov, Nikola; Marinova, Tania; Ristevski, Pece

2004-01-01

During the last century a great attention has been spared to the water resources of the territories of different countries in the world. In the last decades investigations were directed towards the long-term variability of precipitation in the basic regions of agricultural production. Among these investigations the results that indicate decreasing of precipitation amounts during the potential crop-growing season are of especially great interest because precipitation decreasing affects harmfully crop production and population feeding. The purpose of the present work is to study the long-term variability of monthly precipitation sums for 5 representative meteorological stations in Republic of Macedonia: Skopje, Bitola, Prilep, Stip and Demir Kapija for the period 1925-2000. The duration and periodicity of precipitation variations are analyzed on the base of 5-years smooth values for different seasons, warm and cold half-year and for year. The tendencies of trend for the period 1925-2000 are found out.(Author)

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

A mechanism of midlatitude noontime foE long-term variations inferred from European observations

Science.gov (United States)

Mikhailov, A. V.; Perrone, L.; Nusinov, A. A.

2017-04-01

Manually scaled June noontime monthly median foE values at three European stations Rome, Juliusruh, and Slough/Chilton were used to understand the mechanism of foE long-term variations. The 11 year running mean smoothed foE manifests long-term (for some solar cycles) variations with the rising phase at the end of 1960-1985 and the falling phase after 1985. A close relationship (even in details) between (foEave)11y and (R12)11y variations with the correlation coefficient of 0.996 (absolutely significant according to Fisher F criterion) suggests that the Sun is the source of these (foEave)11y long-term variations. After removing solar activity long-term variations the residual (foEave)11y trend is very small ( 0.029% per decade) being absolutely insignificant. This means that all (foEave)11y variations are removed with one solar activity index, (R12)11y, i.e., this means that long-term variations are fully controlled by solar activity. Theory of midlatitude daytime E region tells us that long-term variations of solar EUV in two lines λ = 977 Å (CIII) and λ = 1025.7 Å (HLyβ) and X-ray radiation with λ foE long-term variations have a natural (not anthropogenic) origin related to long-term variations of solar activity. No peculiarities in relation with the last deep solar minimum in 2008-2009 have been revealed.

Quasi-biennial oscillation in atmospheric ozone, and its possible consequences for damaging UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruzdev, A N [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

1996-12-31

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in ozone is supposed to be related to the QBO of zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere, with an approximate period of 29 months. Generally speaking, mechanisms of QBO-related effects in the extratropical atmosphere should depend on season and region, resulting in other periodicities (e.g., a 20-month periodicity) due to nonlinear interaction between the `pure` QBO and an annual cycle. Seasonal and regional dependences of QBO-related effects in ozone not only influence the regime of ozone variability itself, but can have important consequences, for example, for interannual changes in biologically active UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends. This work is concerned with these problems

Quasi-biennial oscillation in atmospheric ozone, and its possible consequences for damaging UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruzdev, A.N. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

1995-12-31

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in ozone is supposed to be related to the QBO of zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere, with an approximate period of 29 months. Generally speaking, mechanisms of QBO-related effects in the extratropical atmosphere should depend on season and region, resulting in other periodicities (e.g., a 20-month periodicity) due to nonlinear interaction between the `pure` QBO and an annual cycle. Seasonal and regional dependences of QBO-related effects in ozone not only influence the regime of ozone variability itself, but can have important consequences, for example, for interannual changes in biologically active UV-B radiation and for determination of long-term ozone trends. This work is concerned with these problems

Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

OpenAIRE

Sinha, Sidharth

2014-01-01

Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

Long-term agroecosystem research in the central Mississippi river basin: introduction, establishment, and overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadler, E John; Lerch, Robert N; Kitchen, Newell R; Anderson, Stephen H; Baffaut, Claire; Sudduth, Kenneth A; Prato, Anthony A; Kremer, Robert J; Vories, Earl D; Myers, D Brent; Broz, Robert; Miles, Randall J; Young, Fred J

2015-01-01

Many challenges currently facing agriculture require long-term data on landscape-scale hydrologic responses to weather, such as from the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW), located in northeastern Missouri, USA. This watershed is prone to surface runoff despite shallow slopes, as a result of a significant smectitic clay layer 30 to 50 cm deep that restricts downward flow of water and gives rise to a periodic perched water table. This paper is the first in a series that documents the database developed from GCEW. The objectives of this paper are to (i) establish the context of long-term data and the federal infrastructure that provides it, (ii) describe the GCEW/ Central Mississippi River Basin (CMRB) establishment and the geophysical and anthropogenic context, (iii) summarize in brief the collected research results published using data from within GCEW, (iv) describe the series of papers this work introduces, and (v) identify knowledge gaps and research needs. The rationale for the collection derives from converging trends in data from long-term research, integration of multiple disciplines, and increasing public awareness of increasingly larger problems. The outcome of those trends includes being selected as the CMRB site in the USDA-ARS Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Research (LTAR) network. Research needs include quantifying watershed scale fluxes of N, P, K, sediment, and energy, accounting for fluxes involving forest, livestock, and anthropogenic sources, scaling from near-term point-scale results to increasingly long and broad scales, and considering whole-system interactions. This special section informs the scientific community about this database and provides support for its future use in research to solve natural resource problems important to US agricultural, environmental, and science policy. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Prognostic Factors and Decision Tree for Long-term Survival in Metastatic Uveal Melanoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorenzo, Daniel; Ochoa, María; Piulats, Josep Maria; Gutiérrez, Cristina; Arias, Luis; Català, Jaum; Grau, María; Peñafiel, Judith; Cobos, Estefanía; Garcia-Bru, Pere; Rubio, Marcos Javier; Padrón-Pérez, Noel; Dias, Bruno; Pera, Joan; Caminal, Josep Maria

2017-12-04

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in metastatic uveal melanoma. Secondary aims were to identify the characteristics and prognostic factors associated with long-term survival and to develop a clinical decision tree. The medical records of 99 metastatic uveal melanoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as either short (≤ 12 months) or long-term survivors (> 12 months) based on a graphical interpretation of the survival curve after diagnosis of the first metastatic lesion. Ophthalmic and oncological characteristics were assessed in both groups. Of the 99 patients, 62 (62.6%) were classified as short-term survivors, and 37 (37.4%) as long-term survivors. The multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of long-term survival: age ≤ 65 years (p=0.012) and unaltered serum lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.018); additionally, the size (smaller vs. larger) of the largest liver metastasis showed a trend towards significance (p=0.063). Based on the variables significantly associated with long-term survival, we developed a decision tree to facilitate clinical decision-making. The findings of this study demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. The presence of certain clinical characteristics at diagnosis of distant disease is associated with long-term survival. A decision tree was developed to facilitate clinical decision-making and to counsel patients about the expected course of disease.

Hydrological influences on long-term gas flow trends at locations in the Vogtland/NW Bohemian seismic region (German-Czech border

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Heinicke

2007-06-01

Full Text Available One of the typical methods for the identification of seismo-hydrological effects is to monitor changes in the free gas flow throughout springs or mofettes. For several years, the gas flow regime of mineral springs at Bad Brambach (Germany and mofettes in the Nature Park Soos (Czech Republic and its dependence on hydro-/meteorological parameters have been studied. The mineral spring ‘Wettinquelle’, Bad Brambach, is a well-known seismo- hydrologically sensitive location for swarmquakes at a special epicentral area of NW Bohemia. Since 2000, a slight upward trend in the gas flow of three Bad Brambach mineral springs has been observed, which became stronger after the ‘Eisenquelle’ spring capture reconstruction (winter 2003/2004. Similar behaviour could be detected at a mofette in Soos. The results correspond to a 3He/4He mantle ratio increase in gases at mofettes in the Cheb Basin (CZ traced by other authors for more than 12 years, and could give hints for a higher degassing activity of the magma body below that area. Common and special properties in the degassing regimes of the Bad Brambach and Soos locations are discussed. It is demonstrated that the long-term gas flow trend was interrupted in 2003 because of very low groundwater levels. This effect was amplified by the artificial groundwater lowering during the ‘Eisenquelle’ spring capture reconstruction.

Long term stability of power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

1994-12-31

Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

The Genomic, Epigenomic, and Psychosocial Characteristics of Long-Term Survivors of Ovarian Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

enjoy life…………................................. 0 1 2 3 4 4. I have accepted my illness…………......................... 0 1 2 3 4 5. I am sleeping well...cancer. We have thus generated gene expression heat maps for 26 long-term survivors and 26 short-term survivors indicating a differential trend...between the 2 survival groups in: mRNA expression, miRNA expression, and DNA methylation. Each analysis was performed at the dedicated scientific

Taking the long view: a systematic review reporting long-term perspectives on child unintentional injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Mytton, Julie A; Towner, Elizabeth M L; Powell, Jane; Pilkington, Paul A; Gray, Selena

2012-10-01

The relative significance of child injury as a cause of preventable death has increased as mortality from infectious diseases has declined. Unintentional child injuries are now a major cause of death and disability across the world with the greatest burden falling on those who are most disadvantaged. A review of long-term data on child injury mortality was conducted to explore trends and inequalities and consider how data were used to inform policy, practice and research. The authors systematically collated and quality appraised data from publications and documents reporting unintentional child injury mortality over periods of 20 years or more. A critical narrative synthesis explored trends by country income group, injury type, age, gender, ethnicity and socioeconomic group. 31 studies meeting the inclusion criteria were identified of which 30 were included in the synthesis. Only six were from middle income countries and none were from low income countries. An overall trend in falling child injury mortality masked rising road traffic injury deaths, evidence of increasing vulnerability of adolescents and widening disparities within countries when analysed by ethnic group and socioeconomic status. Child injury mortality trend data from high and middle income countries has illustrated inequalities within generally falling trends. There is scope for greater use of existing trend data to inform policy and practice. Similar evidence from low income countries where the burden of injury is greatest is needed.

Geomagnetic secular variation at the African observatories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haile, T.

2002-10-01

Geomagnetic data from ten observatories in the African continent with time series data length of more than three decades have been analysed. All-day annual mean values of the D, H and Z components were used to study secular variations in the African region. The residuals in D, H and Z components obtained after removing polynomial fits have been examined in relation to the sunspot cycle. The occurrence of the 1969-1970 worldwide geomagnetic impulse in each observatory is studied. It is found that the secular variation in the field can be represented for most of the observatories with polynomials of second or third degree. Departures from these trends are observed over the Southern African region where strong local magnetic anomalies have been observed. The residuals in the geomagnetic field components have been shown to exhibit parallelism with the periods corresponding to double solar cycle for some of the stations. A clear latitudinal distribution in the geomagnetic component that exhibits the 1969-70 jerk is shown. The jerk appears in the plots of the first differences in H for the southern most observatories of Hermanus, Hartebeesthoek, and Tsuemb, while the Z plots show the jerk for near equatorial and equatorial stations of Antananarivo, Luanda Belas, Bangui and Addis Ababa. There is some indication for this jerk in the first difference plots of D for the northern stations of M'Bour and Tamanrasset. The plots of D rather strongly suggest the presence of a jerk around 1980 at most of the stations. (author)

LONG-TERM OUTCOMES OF DECEASED DONOR LIVER TRANSPLANTATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. V. Gautier

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Aim of the study was to evaluate patient and graft survival after liver transplantation (LT and to determine if primary disease diagnosis, early graft dysfunction or other factors affect it. Furthermore, we analyzed the reasonsof short-term and long-term deaths or retransplantations.Materials and methods. 192 LTs from donors with brain death were performed from December 2004 until June 2014. Recipient age varied from 5 to 71 years. Most frequent diagnosis was liver cirrhosis (mainly due to hepatitis C, then hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, liver graft dysfunction, etc.Results and discussion. 1-year patient survival is 89.5%, graft survival is 87.7%, 3-year –87% and 84.6%, respectively, and 5-year – 83.5% and 83.0%, respectively. Early mortality (in fi rst 30 days after transplantation was 8%, long-term mortality – 5.9%. Primary non-function graft (PNF was the reason of 66.7% early deaths. In the long term, infections and oncology were the reasons of death with the same frequency – 36.4%. Early graft dysfunction including primary non-function signifi cantly decreases short term survival (p = 0.0002. Nevertheless, in the majority of cases graft function improves and doesn’t affect survival. Donor factors play role in outcomes: early dysfunction is higher (40.6% in extended criteria donor group than in standard donor group (р = 0.0431. PNF has the same trend – 8.5% and 0.0%, respectively, but without signifi cance (р =0.0835. 5-year survival is remarkably lower in HCC group 40.8% (p = 0.003 than in other groups.Conclusion: survival after liver transplantation in our Center is comparable with the results of the world’s centers.

Accelerated long-term forgetting in children with temporal lobe epilepsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gascoigne, Michael B; Smith, Mary Lou; Barton, Belinda; Webster, Richard; Gill, Deepak; Lah, Suncica

2014-07-01

Adults with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) have been found to have accelerated long-term forgetting, but this phenomenon has not yet been investigated in children. Although deficits in recall of materials after short (20- to 30-minute) delays have been shown to slowly emerge from childhood to adolescence in patients with TLE, it is unknown whether such a trend will also be found in recall of materials after long delays. This study examined the presence of accelerated long-term forgetting in children with TLE and how it relates to chronological age. Twenty-three children with TLE and 58 healthy controls of similar age, sex distribution and socioeconomic status completed a battery of neuropsychological tests, including standardised tests of story recall and design location, as well as two experimental tests requiring the learning of words and design locations to a criterion, both of which assessed recall after short (30-min) and long (7-day) delays. Word recall at the 7-day delay (relative to the 30-min recall) was significantly poorer in the TLE group, compared to the control group. The TLE group also exhibited worse 30-min recall performance on a standardised test of story recall. Individual patient analyses revealed dissociation between performance on the experimental and standardised verbal memory tests; children who were impaired on the experimental test (7-day delay) were not impaired on the standardised test (30-min delay). Compared to controls, patients with a left-hemisphere seizure focus recalled fewer words at short and long delays while patients with an abnormal hippocampus recalled fewer words at the long delay. No between-group differences were found with respect to the design location task. Age negatively correlated with the recall of words after short- and long-term delays within the TLE group, where older age was associated with worse memory. This association was not present in the control group. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show

[Falls and fractures among older adults living in long-term care].

Science.gov (United States)

Del Duca, Giovâni Firpo; Antes, Danielle Ledur; Hallal, Pedro Curi

2013-03-01

To investigate the prevalence of falls and fractures over the past 12 months and associated factors among older adults living in long-term care. Census of all long-term care located in the city of Pelotas, Brazil, in 2008. Falls over the past 12 months were assessed using the following question: "Over the last 12 months, have you fallen?" For those who replied positively, another question was asked: "In any of these falls, have you fractured a bone?" Sex, age, schooling, disability relating to basic activities of daily living, type of financing of the long-term care and hospital admissions were the independent variables. We used chi-square tests for heterogeneity and linear trend in the unadjusted analysis, and Poisson regression with robust variance in the adjusted one. Within the 24 long-term care studied, we collected data for 466 individuals. The prevalence of falls in the past year was 38.9% (95%CI 34.5; 43.4). Among those who have fallen, 19.2% had fractures. Femur (hip) was the most frequent site fractured (43.4%), followed by wrist (10%). In the adjusted analysis, older age, disability for 1-5 basic activities of daily living, living in public institutions and hospital admissions in the last year were associated with higher risk of falls. The high prevalence of falls and fractures highlights the fragility of the individuals living in long-term care. Special attention should be paid to older adults and those with hospital admissions in the last year.

Sex, secularism and religious influence in US politics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernstein, Elizabeth; Jakobsen, Janet R

2010-01-01

Through an analysis of alliances between secular and religious actors in US politics and a specific case study on anti-trafficking policy, we show that the intertwining of religion and politics in the US comes from two sources: 1) the secular political and cultural institutions of American public life that have developed historically out of Protestantism, and which predominantly operate by presuming Protestant norms and values; and 2) the direct influence on US politics of religious groups and organisations, particularly in the past quarter-century of lobby groups and political action committees identified with conservative evangelical Christianity. The sources of policies that promote gender and sexual inequality in the US are both secular and religious and we conclude that it is inaccurate to assume that religious influence in politics is necessarily conservative or that more secular politics will necessarily be more progressive than the religious varieties.

Long-Term United Kindrom Trends in the Breeding Phenology of the Common Frog, Rana temporaria

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Scott, W.A.; Pithart, David; Adamson, J. K.

2008-01-01

Roč. 42, č. 1 (2008), s. 89-96 ISSN 0022-1511 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Long-term * Common Frog * Breeding * Rana temporaria Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.888, year: 2008

Reliable in the long run? Petroleum policy and long-term oil supplier reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toft, Peter; Duero, Arash

2011-01-01

Accelerating oil import dependence in energy consuming nations highlights the importance of having energy supplies at sufficient levels and at stable and reasonable prices. Consequently, it is crucial that oil exporters realize their full production potential. Current debates on energy security are often focused on short-term risks e.g. sudden disruptions due to wars, domestic instability, etc. However, when it comes to assessing oil supplier reliability it is equally important to assess their longer term ability and willingness to deliver oil to the global market. This study analyzes the effects of petroleum investment policies on crude oil production trends in 14 major oil producing countries (2000-2010) by focusing on the political-institutional frameworks that shape the investment conditions for the upstream oil sector. Our findings indicate that countries with less favorable oil sector frameworks systematically performed worse than countries with investor friendly and privatized sectors. The findings indicate that assessments based on remaining reserves and planned production capacities alone could inflate expectations about future oil supplies in a world where remaining crude reserves are located in countries with unfavorable investment frameworks. - Highlights: → We explore if policies favoring state-ownership in upstream oil undermine output expectations. → We compare petroleum policies of 14 major oil producers vis-a-vis production trends 2000-2010. → We find major differences between countries favorable to state-owned or private investors. → Substantial private investment seems needed for oil production to meet long-term demand growth.

The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-10-01

The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Social Boundaries and Secularism in the Lebanese Left

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haugbølle, Sune

2013-01-01

This article explores the social meaning of boundaries in Lebanon through debates about secularism in and around the Lebanese Left. The aim is to elucidate the political and social meaning of ‘Left’ in a Lebanese context, and the positioning of liminal political subjectivity in a system organized...... along sectarian boundaries. Based on readings of debates about secularism in 1975 and 1976, the article proposes that the Left has since that year been forced to embrace secularism as its primary ideological marker. This experience in turn has become constitutive for what it means to be a leftist...

Morphometric distances among five ethnic groups and evaluation of the secular trend in historical Libya.

Science.gov (United States)

Danubio, Maria Enrica; Martorella, Domenico; Rufo, Fabrizio; Vecchi, Elvira; Sanna, Emanuele

2011-01-01

This study analysed the variations, both in space and time, of 10 body dimensions and 2 anthropometric indexes of 745 adult males belonging to 5 ethnic groups of historical Lybia (el-Haràbi, el-Baraghìts, Marabtìn, Oases inhabitants and Tuareg). The data were collected in the years 1928 and 1932 by Puccioni and Cipriani, two Italian anthropologists. The aim was to reconstruct the biological history of Libya at the time, and thus contribute to the ongoing debate on the evolution of the biological standard of living in developing Countries. The subjects were analysed by ethnicity and by 10-year age groups, after adjusting for age. The results of ANCOVA and Tukey's post-hoc test show that among and between groups there are statistical significant differences overall for armspan, height, head breadth, bizygomatic breadth, biiliac breadth/height and head breadth/head length indexes. By means of the cluster analysis, the el-Haràbi, el-Baraghìts and Marabtìn groups cluster together, whereas the Tuareg and Oases inhabitants cluster separately one from the other and both from the other three ethnic groups. Within-group variations are not very marked in all ethnicities. In general, there is the tendency, not statistically significant, to the reduction and/or stasis of body dimensions from the older to the younger, and the differences are greater among the older than the younger age classes. In conclusion, it can be argued that these groups, all different culturally and geographically, were following the same tendency of stasis of the secular trend of the body dimensions considered in this study, and such stasis persisted since, at least, the last twenty years of the 19th century, when the older were born.

Secular trends in lipid-lowering treatment and lipid levels after a first acute myocardial infarction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lena Björck

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Lena Björck1, Catharina Welin2, Annika Rosengren11Department of medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital/Östra, Göteborg, Sweden; 2Institute of Health and Care Sciences, the Sahlgrenska Academy at Göteborg University, Göteborg, SwedenBackground: The beneficial effects of statins were unequivocally demonstrated in the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study (4S in 1994, leading to an increase in the use of lipid-lowering drugs. However, to what extent this translates into serum cholesterol levels in a real-life setting has not been systematically investigated.Objective: To estimate secular trends from 1994 to 2002 in blood lipid levels among unselected younger patients after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI.Method: Descriptive single centre study using consecutive data collection in 781 patients (aged <65 years hospitalized with a first AMI during the period 1994–2002.Results: From 1994–2002, the use of lipid-lowering drugs increased from 10% to 94% for men and from 23% to 90% for women. In 1994, the mean serum cholesterol levels were 6.53 mmol/l in men and 6.32 mmol/l in women, decreasing to 4.31 mmol/l and 5.13 mmol/l in men and women, respectively, in 2002. Still, only 56% of the men and 35% of the women had total serum cholesterol levels <4.5 mmol/l in 2002.Conclusion: Despite a marked increase in lipid-lowering drug treatment in which there was an increase from about 10% in 1994 to more than 90% in 2002, current target levels of <4.5 mmol/l for serum cholesterol were not achieved in a significant proportion of post-AMI patients.Keywords: lipid levels, lipid-lowering medication, myocardial infarction, risk factors

The timing of normal puberty and the age limits of sexual precocity: variations around the world, secular trends, and changes after migration.

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Parent, Anne-Simone; Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders; Skakkebaek, Niels E; Toppari, Jorma; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre

2003-10-01

During the past decade, possible advancement in timing of puberty has been reported in the United States. In addition, early pubertal development and an increased incidence of sexual precocity have been noticed in children, primarily girls, migrating for foreign adoption in several Western European countries. These observations are raising the issues of current differences and secular trends in timing of puberty in relation to ethnic, geographical, and socioeconomic background. None of these factors provide an unequivocal explanation for the earlier onset of puberty seen in the United States. In the formerly deprived migrating children, refeeding and catch-up growth may prime maturation. However, precocious puberty is seen also in some nondeprived migrating children. Attention has been paid to the changing milieu after migration, and recently, the possible role of endocrine- disrupting chemicals from the environment has been considered. These observations urge further study of the onset of puberty as a possible sensitive and early marker of the interactions between environmental conditions and genetic susceptibility that can influence physiological and pathological processes.

Really not god: Secularization and pragmatism in Gamblers Anonymous.

Science.gov (United States)

Browne, B R

1994-09-01

The paper argues that despite maintaining the image of a twelve-step organization, the central theme of the history of Gamblers Anonymous (GA) in the United States is the increasing secularization of the program of the recovery. The paper documents the increasing secularization and pragmatism of Gamblers Anonymous, as reflected in key documents, despite the spiritual vision of its founding member. The author speculates on why Gamblers Anonymous took a secularized development path. Further research is called for.

LONG-TERM TREND OF SOLAR CORONAL HOLE DISTRIBUTION FROM 1975 TO 2014

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fujiki, K.; Tokumaru, M.; Hayashi, K.; Satonaka, D. [Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa, Nagoya Aichi 464-8601 (Japan); Hakamada, K., E-mail: fujiki@isee.nagoya-u.ac.jp [Department of Natural Science and Mathematics, Chubu University, 1200 Matsumoto-cho, Kasugai, Aichi 487-8501 (Japan)

2016-08-20

We developed an automated prediction technique for coronal holes using potential magnetic field extrapolation in the solar corona to construct a database of coronal holes appearing from 1975 February to 2015 July (Carrington rotations from 1625 to 2165). Coronal holes are labeled with the location, size, and average magnetic field of each coronal hole on the photosphere and source surface. As a result, we identified 3335 coronal holes and found that the long-term distribution of coronal holes shows a similar pattern known as the magnetic butterfly diagram, and polar/low-latitude coronal holes tend to decrease/increase in the last solar minimum relative to the previous two minima.

Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Bin

2018-04-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p impact on the crop growth trend.

Investigation of short and long term trends in chemical composition of Eastern Mediterranean aerosols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

A collaborative study was started with the Middle East Technical University, Environmental Engineering Department in 2004 in order to determine the transport of air pollutants and their deposition rates to Eastern Mediterranean with the ultimate aim of filling the gaps in knowledge on the current status of Eastern Mediterranean air quality profile. Collection sufficient amount of representative samples, analyzes of the collected samples with high accuracy and precision and interpretation of generated data are crucial efforts. To attain this goal, EDXRF spectrometer, which is a rapid, reliable and sensitive analytical instrument, located at our center was employed in analysis of the collected samples after calibration with 'NIST 2783 Air Particles on Filter'. The effectiveness of the control strategies taken on the emissions was discussed by investigating the short and long term variations in the chemical composition of samples collected between 1993 and 2001 at Antalya station. In this context, generated data set was studied for short (daily) term, seasonal and long term variations. It has been found that short term variations in the concentrations of pollutants in short time scale are highly episodic. The concentration of measured pollutants was changed 10-20 folds in the subsequent two days. The most important factors affecting the chemical composition of pollutants in short time interval are meteorological factors such as precipitation and variations observed at the emission strength of pollutants. The declined in Pb concentrations at the Antalya station was attributed to observed decrease in Pb emissions in Europe after the introduction of leaded gasoline. Highest summer averages were reported for anthropogenic pollutants in summer months. Aegean Sea (Izmir-Aliaga) studies of the project will be completed this year

Secularization- the promoter of “new type of man”

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Traian-Alexandru MIU

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Secularization is a phenomenon supposing major mutations on the social level. Thus, based on the principle of rationality, secularization has led to the removal of religion from the social sphere, the desacralization, aiming, ultimately, that the sacred disappear altogether from man's life. Within the globalizing-secularizing society, economics seeks to take possession of the entire social and spiritual life, helped by a policy-aggressive mercantile mentality. Secularization has led to manipulation of man so that he believes he has to build his future by abstaining from religion. The secularized man has come to the conclusion that only by his own forces helped by reason, economy and technology he can be the one who creates progress, namely perfection for himself and for the world he lives in. The hypermodern man is a man of ephemerality, a human being looking for his accomplishment in trifles, who no longer has deification as his final goal. The problems that man is facing today can be solved by taking the eternity as reference system for them.

Comparison of long-term Moscow and Danish NLC observations: statistical results

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P. Dalin

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Noctilucent clouds (NLC are the highest clouds in the Earth's atmosphere, observed close to the mesopause at 80–90 km altitudes. Systematic NLC observations conducted in Moscow for the period of 1962–2005 and in Denmark for 1983–2005 are compared and statistical results both for seasonally summarized NLC parameters and for individual NLC appearances are described. Careful attention is paid to the weather conditions during each season of observations. This turns out to be a very important factor both for the NLC case study and for long-term data set analysis. Time series of seasonal values show moderate similarity (taking into account the weather conditions but, at the same time, the comparison of individual cases of NLC occurrence reveals substantial differences. There are positive trends in the Moscow and Danish normalized NLC brightness as well as nearly zero trend in the Moscow normalized NLC occurrence frequency but these long-term changes are not statistically significant. The quasi-ten-year cycle in NLC parameters is about 1 year shorter than the solar cycle during the same period. The characteristic scale of NLC fields is estimated for the first time and it is found to be less than 800 km.

Data for Figures and Tables in Journal Article Assessment of the Effects of Horizontal Grid Resolution on Long-Term Air Quality Trends using Coupled WRF-CMAQ Simulations, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.02.036

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The dataset represents the data depicted in the Figures and Tables of a Journal Manuscript with the following abstract: The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental United State are performed over the 2001 to 2010 time period at two different horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. Both simulations used the same emission inventory and model configurations. Model results are compared both in space and time to assess the potential weaknesses and strengths of using coarse resolution in long-term air quality applications. The results show that the 36 km and 12 km simulations are comparable in terms of trends analysis for both pollutant concentrations and radiation variables. The advantage of using the coarser 36 km resolution is a significant reduction of computational cost, time and storage requirement which are key considerations when performing multiple years of simulations for trend analysis. However, if such simulations are to be used for local air quality analysis, finer horizontal resolution may be beneficial since it can provide information on local gradients. In particular, divergences between the two simulations are noticeable in urban, complex terrain and coastal regions.This dataset is associated with the following publication

Kosovar Society through Secularism and Religion

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MSc. Dritero Arifi

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper will analyze the importance and the effects of religion, in Kosovar society. A great part of the paper, will analyze the social and the political relations in Post-War Kosovo. Initially it will elaborate religion and secularism, especially in theoreticall aspect, what impact have these definitions in modern societies. In order to explain what the importance of the religion in Kosovo is, we will focus on analyzing ethnical, social and political relations within Kosovo society. A considerable component of the paper is also, the elaboration of secularism in Kosovo conditions. This implies that the formulation of the problem and the objective of this research, are the substance of the paper’s theme, which is, religion in Kosovo; its definition and the outlook of the Kosovar society on religion. Is Kosovo post-war society more or less religious? That means the elements of Religions and Secularism will be part of the analysis of developments in post-war Kosovo.

Long-term urethral catheterisation.

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Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

Trends of PM2.5 concentrations in China: A long term approach.

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Fontes, Tânia; Li, Peilin; Barros, Nelson; Zhao, Pengjun

2017-07-01

The fast economic growth of China along the last two decades has created a strong impact on the environment. The occurrence of heavy haze pollution days is the most visible effect. Although many researchers have studied such problem, a high number of spatio-temporal limitations in the recent studies were identified. From our best knowledge the long trends of PM 2.5 concentrations were not fully investigated in China, in particular the year-to-year trends and the seasonal and daily cycles. Therefore, in this work the PM 2.5 concentrations collected from automatic monitors from five urban sites located in megacities with different climatic zones in China were analysed: Beijing (40°N), Chengdu (31°N), Guangzhou (23°N), Shanghai (31°N) and Shenyang (43°N). For an inter-comparison a meta-analysis was carried out. An evaluation conducted since 1999 demonstrates that PM 2.5 concentrations have been reduced until 2008, period which match with the occurrence of the Olympic Games. However, a seasonal analysis highlight that such decrease occurs mostly during warmer seasons than cold seasons. During winter PM 2.5 concentrations are typically 1.3 to 2.7 higher than in summer. The average daily cycle shows that the lowest and highest PM 2.5 concentrations often occurs in the afternoon and evening hours respectively. Such daily variations are mostly driven by the daily variation of the boundary layer depth and emissions. Although the PM 2.5 levels have showing signs of improvement, even during the warming season the values are still too high in comparison with the annual environmental standards of China (35 μg m -3 ). Moreover, during cold seasons the north regions have values twice higher than this limit. Thus, to fulfil these standards the governmental mitigation measures need to be strongly reinforced in order to optimize the daily living energy consumption, primarily in the north regions of China and during the winter periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

Long term sequelae of pediatric craniopharyngioma - literature review and 20 years of experience

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Michal eCohen

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Craniopharyngioma are rare histologically benign brain tumors that develop in the pituitary- hypothalamic area. They may invade nearby anatomical structures causing significant rates of neurological, neurocognitive and endocrinological complications including remarkable hypothalamic damage. Information regarding long term implications of the tumors and treatment in the pediatric population is accumulating, and treatment goals appear to be changing accordingly. In this review we aim to present data regarding long term complications of craniopharyngioma in children and adolescents and our experience from a large tertiary center. Hypothalamic dysfunction was noted to be the most significant complication, adversely affecting quality of life in survivors. Obesity, fatigue and sleep disorders are the most notable manifestations of this dysfunction, and treatment is extremely difficult. Changes in management in recent years show a potential for improved long term outcomes; we found a trend towards less aggressive surgical management and increasing use of adjuvant treatment, accompanied by a decrease in complication rates.

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrographic and nutrient parameters in a southeast US coastal river.

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Williams, Asher A; Kimball, Matthew E

2013-12-01

The Nassau River estuary is located in northeast Florida adjacent to the eutrophic St. Johns River. Historically, development has been sparse in the Nassau River's catchment; thus, the system may provide a relatively undisturbed aquatic environment. To monitor the condition of the Nassau River estuary and to discern spatial and temporal trends in water quality, nutrients and hydrographic variables were assessed throughout the estuary from 1997 to 2011. Hydrographic (temperature, salinity, total suspended solids, and turbidity) and nutrient parameters (total phosphorus, ortho-PO₄(3-), total nitrogen, NH₄(+), total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and NO₃(-)) were monitored bimonthly at 12 sites in the mesohaline and polyhaline zones of the river. Nonparametric Kendall's Tau was implemented to analyze long-term water quality patterns. Salinity was found to increase with time, particularly in the mesohaline sampling sites. Dissolved oxygen decreased over time in the estuary and hypoxic conditions became increasingly frequent in the final years of the study. Nutrients increased in the estuary, ranging from 149 to 401%. Rainfall data collected in adjacent conservation areas did not correlate well with nutrients as compared with stream discharge data collected in the basin headwaters, outside of the conservation lands, attributed here to expanding urbanization. During the study period, the Nassau basin underwent rapid human population growth and land development resulting in commensurate impacts to water quality. Nutrient and physical data collected during this study indicate that the Nassau River estuary is becoming more eutrophic with time.

What are driving the long-term Caspian Sea level change?

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Chen, J.

2017-12-01

Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015, and show that PER (P-E+R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop ( -6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of +12.38 and -6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.

Case Studies on Newly-emerging Long- and Medium-term Strategic Planning and Its Reference to Beijing

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2011-01-01

Responding to the significant impacts brought by social, political, economic and environmental changes, some countries, regions and cities in the world have introduced new forms of long- and medium-term strategic planning since 2000, so as to promote the sustainable development of the cities or regions through a higher-level thoughts and a wider-perspective exploration. Taking America 2050, Future Ruhr 2030, New York 2030 and some other long- and medium-term strategic plans as examples, the paper analyzes the evolution of long- and medium-term strategic planning from the aspects of plan-making methods, analyzing techniques, research contents development trends etc. at the state, regional, and city levels. Based on international experience, this paper puts forward the necessity for Beijing to launch a new long-term strategic planning study "Beijing 2049." The innovation, challenges and development direction of "Beijing 2049" is also expounded in the paper.

Secular trends in the rate of low birth weight in Brazilian State Capitals in the period 1996 to 2010 Tendencia secular de la tasa de bajo peso al nacer en las capitales brasileñas de 1996 a 2010 Tendência secular da taxa de baixo peso ao nascer nas capitais brasileiras de 1996 a 2010

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Helma Jane Ferreira Veloso

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Secular trends in rates of low birth weight in Brazilian state capital cities were evaluated for the period 1996 to 2010 using joinpoint regression models. The rates were calculated using data from the Live Births Information System. Newborns weighing less than 500g were excluded. Only data for capital cities was included since under-registration of births in these cities is lower and new trends can be detected earlier. There was a significant increase in the rate of low birth weight in the Brazilian capitals of the North Region, Northeast Region, South Region and Southeast Region up to 2003/2004, stabilizing thereafter. In the capitals of the Center-west Region the rate increased throughout the whole study period. The rate of low birth weight was higher in the capitals of the more developed regions. The rate of multiple births increased significantly in all Brazilian capitals, while the stillbirth rate decreased and showed a negative correlation with the rate of low birth weight. The increase in the rate of low birth weight may be partially explained by the increase in multiple births, an increase in the birth of infants weighing 500 to 999g and by the reduction in the stillbirth rate.La tendencia secular de la tasa de bajo peso al nacer de 1996 a 2010 en las capitales brasileñas se evaluó utilizando modelos de regresión joinpoint. Las tasas se calcularon a partir del Sistema de Información sobre Nacidos Vivos, excluyéndose recién nacidos con un peso A tendência secular da taxa de baixo peso ao nascer de 1996 a 2010 nas capitais brasileiras foi avaliada utilizando-se modelos de regressão joinpoint. As taxas foram calculadas a partir do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos, excluindo-se recém-nascido com peso < 500g. Foram incluídos apenas dados das capitais, onde o sub-registro é menor e novas tendências podem ser detectadas mais precocemente. A taxa de baixo peso ao nascer aumentou significantemente nas capitais

Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

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Michtchenko, T. A.; Rodríguez, A.

2011-08-01

The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

The post-secular city

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greve, Anni

) elements in ritual and ceremonies. Second, emergent spaces of post-secular practices are not only connected to traditional religious sites. With Schmautz (1998) it is necessary to understand a sacred site in its original social and cultural setting, and in the present experience of it. With a point...... in research on trans-national identity making (Fortier 2002). This paper suggests a displacement of focus from trans-national to international identity making and the possible role of religious societies. It is argued that an international culture is not mainstream culture however there are (universal......’ the paper argues for a possible potential of storytelling and mutual recognition. Third, it offers an argument for detecting ‘post-secular sites’ at the urban level from two angles: From architecture (the iconic consciousness) and from performance (the sacred drama). Fourth, the paper closes with a case...

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

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Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

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Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2018-02-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

Closing the gap between short- and long-term scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, F. L.; Rogner, H.-H.

2005-01-01

Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios (e.g., OECD IEA, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Energy Agency, 2004) focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply as well as the resources, technologies, and prices to match them. Other scenarios (e.g., the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2000) explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, and environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap (see Figure 1) can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The magnitude of the gap between the OECD IEA (2002) projections and the median of the 40 IPCC SRES scenarios for the year 2020 amounts to almost 300 GWe installed capacity. Reasons for the gap originate in the differences between the analytical frameworks (including projection techniques) adopted by the short- and long-term studies. Another, closely related reason is the difference in the underlying assumptions, particularly their relations to recent trends and the current situation. In addition, near-term projections are heavily influenced by the social context (perceived unpopularity or outright rejection of nuclear power after Chernobyl), political factors (government pronouncements and policies at the national level, diplomacy and balancing of national positions at international organizations), economic aspects (energy market deregulation and liberalization unveiling excess capacities; financial risks), technology matters (the role of learning, definition of

Episodic events in long-term geological processes: A new classification and its applications

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Dmitry A. Ruban

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Long-term geological processes are usually described with curves reflecting continuous changes in the characteristic parameters through the geological history, and such curves can be employed directly for recognition of episodic (relatively long-term events linked to these changes. The episodic events can be classified into several categories according to their scale (ordinary and anomalous events, “shape” (positive, negative, and neutral events, and relation to long-term trend change (successive, interruptive, facilitative, stabilizing, transformative, increasing, and decreasing. Many types of these events can be defined depending on the combination of the above-mentioned patterns. Of course, spatial rank, duration, and origin can be also considered in description of these events. The proposed classification can be applied to events in some real long-term geological processes, which include global sea-level changes, biodiversity dynamics, lithospheric plate number changes, and palaeoclimate changes. Several case examples prove the usefulness of the classification. It is established that the Early Valanginian (Early Cretaceous eustatic lowstand (the lowest position of the sea level in the entire Cretaceous was negative, but ordinary and only interruptive event. In the other case, it becomes clear that the only end-Ordovician and the Permian/Triassic mass extinctions transformed the trends of the biodiversity dynamics (from increase to decrease and from decrease to increase respectively, and the only Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction was really anomalous event on the Phanerozoic biodiversity curve. The new palaeontological data are employed to reconstruct the diversity dynamics of brachiopods in Germany (without the Alps and the Swiss Jura Mountains. The further interpretation of the both diversity curves implies that the Early Toarcian mass extinction affected the regional brachiopod faunas strongly, but this event was only decreasing

Human Rights Education and the Post Secular Turn

Science.gov (United States)

Bowie, Bob

2012-01-01

This article questions whether human rights education (HRE) scholarship is responding adequately to the post secular turn in thinking about the place and nature of religion in society. Here the post secular turn is used to describe the discrediting of secularisation theory, the recognition of religion as an enduring and pervasive global cultural…

Marginal Propensity to Consume in Hungary: The long-term versus Short-term Challenges to Policy Makers

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Keith Write

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study uses Hungarian quarterly data from the International Monetary Fund to estimate a distributed lag model whose coefficients allow derivation of the short-run and long-run marginal propensities to consume.  MPCs are main factors determining the consumption, investment, government spending, and export and import multipliers of the economy.  Hungary's economy has stagnated and its policy makers are exploring new ways to manage its economy.  Our model reveals that the numerical value of Hungarian short-run marginal propensity to consume (MPC is 0.4081181655 and the long-run MPC is 0.9458619.  These results are consistent with the corresponding figures in emerging and advanced economies.  These derived MPCs suggest that Hungarian economic policy makers should use fiscal instruments to bring these macroeconomic variables back to their long-term trend effectively

Long-term trends in nutrient budgets of the western Dutch Wadden Sea (1976–2012)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jung, A.S; Brinkman, A.G.; Folmer, E.O.; Herman, P.M.J.; van der Veer, H.W.; Philippart, C.J.M.

2017-01-01

Long-term field observations of nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] concentrations were used to construct nutrient budgets for the western Dutch Wadden Sea between 1976 and 2012. Nutrients come into the western Dutch Wadden Sea via river runoff, through exchange with the coastal zone of the North Sea,

Pilgrimage as post-secular therapy

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Lisbeth Mikaelsson

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This article describes the institutionalized pilgrim role and then turns to the therapeutic discourse which is so prominent in the modern pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela. Both the role and the discourse can be related to the concept of post-secularity, demonstrating that complex cultural fields such as religion and therapy, become intertwined in new ways through modern pilgrimage. This article also shows that churches cooperating in this type of pilgrimage are adapting to the post-secular age, finding a new sort of raison d’être in a multi-religious, international world. Here the author refers to the Church of Norway and its role in Norwegian pilgrimage. The latter is modelled upon the Santiago example.

Surface ozone in China: present-day distribution and long-term changes

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Xu, W.

2017-12-01

Reliable knowledge of spatio-temporal variations of surface ozone is highly needed to assess the impacts of ozone on human health, ecosystem and climate. Although regional distributions and trends of surface ozone in European and North American countries have been well characterized, little is known about the variability of surface ozone in many other countries, including China, where emissions of ozone precursors have been changing rapidly in recent decades. Here we present the first comprehensive description of present-day (2013-2017) distribution and long-term changes of surface ozone in mainland China. Recent ozone measurements from China's air quality monitoring network (AQMN) are analyzed to show present-day distributions of a few ozone exposure metrics for urban environment. Long-term measurements of ozone at six background sites, a rural site and an urban are used to study the trends of ozone in background, rural and urban air, respectively. The average levels of ozone at the AQMN sites (mainly urban) are close to those found at many European and North American sites. However, ozone at most of the sites shows very large diurnal and seasonal variations so that ozone nonattainment can occur in many cities, particularly those in the North China Plain (NCP), the south of Northeast China (NEC), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Pearl River Delta (PRD), and the Sichuan Basin-Chongqing region (SCB). In all these regions, particularly in the NCP, the maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentration can significantly exceed the national limit (75 ppb). High annual sum of ozone means over 35 ppb (SOMO35) exist mainly in the NCP, NEC and YRD, with regional averages over 4000 ppb·d. Surface ozone has significantly increased at Waliguan (a baseline site in western China) and Shangdianzi (a background site in the NCP), and decreased in winter and spring at Longfengshan (a background site in Northeast China). No clear trend can be derived from long-term measurements

Wind-generated Electricity in China: Decreasing Potential, Inter-annual Variability and Association with Changing Climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Sherman, Peter; Chen, Xinyu; McElroy, Michael B

2017-11-24

China hosts the world's largest market for wind-generated electricity. The financial return and carbon reduction benefits from wind power are sensitive to changing wind resources. Wind data derived from an assimilated meteorological database are used here to estimate what the wind generated electricity in China would have been on an hourly basis over the period 1979 to 2015 at a geographical resolution of approximately 50 km × 50 km. The analysis indicates a secular decrease in generating potential over this interval, with the largest declines observed for western Inner Mongolia (15 ± 7%) and the northern part of Gansu (17 ± 8%), two leading wind investment areas. The decrease is associated with long-term warming in the vicinity of the Siberian High (SH), correlated also with the observed secular increase in global average surface temperatures. The long-term trend is modulated by variability relating to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). A linear regression model incorporating indices for the PDO and AO, as well as the declining trend, can account for the interannual variability of wind power, suggesting that advances in long-term forecasting could be exploited to markedly improve management of future energy systems.

Long-Term Trends in Marriage Timing and the Impact of Migration, the Netherlands (1650-1899

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Charlotte Störmer

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The features of historical marriage patterns have been linked to debates in social and economic history about economic growth and female agency. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the demographics of marriage prior to the nineteenth century. Here, we study trends in sex-specific ages at first marriage, regional variation and the impact of migration on marital timing in the Netherlands in the period 1650-1900. We make use of two new large historical datasets, namely an aggregation of Dutch genealogies and the transcribed marriage banns of Amsterdam. This allows us to understand the features and developments of marriage ages from a long-term perspective in what is known as one of the core-areas of the so-called European Marriage Pattern. Our results show high marriage ages for both sexes from the beginning of our study period, increasing until the mid-19th century. A closer look at regional variation reveals clear differences between the provinces and between urban and rural settings with those in the western part of the country and in urban centers marrying earlier. Migrating individuals married on average later than non-migrating individuals both compared to men and women in the receiving community, as to the ‘stayers’ in the location of origin. As later marriage implies a reduction of the window of fertility, especially for women, our results suggest that migration and increasing regional mobility might have been an important driver of the demographic shift toward higher marriage ages and lower fertility in Europe between the 17th and 19th centuries.

The „Pussy riot“ case and the post-secular hybrids

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Uzlaner Dmitrij

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of the “Pussy riot” case and the peculiarities of Russian postsecularism. Special emphasis is placed on the phenomenon of post-secular hybrids, i.e. the overcoming of the situation of social differentiation between religion and other social subsystems (one of the main distinctive features of secularization. It is claimed that the materials of the trial against “Pussy riot” make evident the appearance in Russia of at least three post-secular hybrids: 1 the blending of religion and politics; 2 installation of religious norms into the public order of the secular state; 3 significance of confessional legal experts as part of the new “ideological state apparatus”.

Educational Credentialism and Elite Formation in Japan: A Long-term Perspective

OpenAIRE

Daiji Kawaguchi; Hiroshi Ono

2013-01-01

In spite of the significant restructuring of the university system in the postwar period, national universities continue to occupy the top end of the prestige hierarchy of universities in Japan. In this paper, we examine long-term trends in the educational credentials of Japanese corporate executives. We use high-quality data from the directory of corporate executives to assess whether the mechanisms of elite production has changed over time. We find that the fraction of corporate executives ...

Long-term availability of global uranium resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monnet, Antoine

2016-01-01

From a global perspective, a low-carbon path to development driven by a growth of nuclear power production raises issues about the availability of uranium resources. Future technologies allowing nuclear reactors to overcome the need for natural uranium will take time to fully deploy. To address these issues, we analyze the conditions of availability of uranium in the 21. century. The first two conditions are technical accessibility and economic interest, both related to the cost of production. We study them using a model that estimates the ultimate uranium resources (amounts of both discovered and undiscovered resources) and their costs. This model splits the world into regions and the resource estimate for each region derives from the present knowledge of the deposits and economic filtering. The output is a long-term supply curve that illustrates the quantities of uranium that are technically accessible as a function of their cost of production. We identify the main uncertainties of these estimates and we show that with no regional breakdown, the ultimate resources are underestimated. The other conditions of availability of uranium covered in our study are related to the market dynamics, i.e. they derive from the supply and demand clearing mechanism. To assess their influence, they are introduced as dynamic constraints in a partial equilibrium model. This model of the uranium market is deterministic, and market players are represented by regions. For instance, it takes into account the short-term correlation between price and exploration expenditures, which is the subject of a dedicate econometric study. In the longer term, constraints include anticipation of demand by consumers and a gradual depletion of the cheapest ultimate resources. Through a series of prospective simulations, we demonstrate the strong influence on long-term price trends of both the growth rate of demand during the 21. century and its anticipation. Conversely, the uncertainties related to the

Long-term trends in submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, USA, related to water quality

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Robert J.; Williams, Michael R.; Marion, Scott R.; Wilcox, David J.; Carruthers, Tim J.B.; Moore, Kenneth A.; Kemp, W.M.; Dennison, William C.; Rybicki, Nancy B.; Peter Bergstrom,; Batiuk, Richard A.

2010-01-01

Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984-2006). Historically, SAV abundance has changed dramatically in Chesapeake Bay, and since 1984, when SAV abundance was at historic low levels, SAV has exhibited complex changes including long-term (decadal) increases and decreases, as well as some large, single-year changes. Chesapeake Bay SAV was grouped into three broad-scale community-types based on salinity regime, each with their own distinct group of species, and detailed analyses were conducted on these three community-types as well as on seven distinct case-study areas spanning the three salinity regimes. Different trends in SAVabundance were evident in the different salinity regimes. SAV abundance has (a) continually increased in the low-salinity region; (b) increased initially in the medium-salinity region, followed by fluctuating abundances; and (c) increased initially in the high-salinity region, followed by a subsequent decline. In all areas, consistent negative correlations between measures of SAV abundance and nitrogen loads or concentrations suggest that meadows are responsive to changes in inputs of nitrogen. For smaller case-study areas, different trends in SAV abundance were also noted including correlations to water clarity in high-salinity case-study areas, but nitrogen was highly correlated in all areas. Current maximum SAV coverage for almost all areas remain below restoration targets, indicating that SAV abundance and associated ecosystem services are currently limited by continued poor water quality, and specifically high

GLOBALLY INCREASED CROP GROWTH AND CROPPING INTENSITY FROM THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE-BASED OBSERVATIONS

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B. Chen

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001, and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

Recycling versus Long-Term Storage of Nuclear Fuel: Economic Factors

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B. Yolanda Moratilla Soria

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of the present study is to compare the associated costs of long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel—open cycle strategy—with the associated cost of reprocessing and recycling strategy of spent fuel—closed cycle strategy—based on the current international studies. The analysis presents cost trends for both strategies. Also, to point out the fact that the total cost of spent nuclear fuel management (open cycle is impossible to establish at present, while the related costs of the closed cycle are stable and known, averting uncertainties.

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA Great Plains: Part I. Spatial trends

Science.gov (United States)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development

Secularization and de-secularization processes under the light of Max Weber’s rationalization sociology

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