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Sample records for long-term operation prediction

  1. Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  3. Transient post-operative atrial fibrillation predicts short and long term adverse events following CABG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Matthew; Galla, John; Blackstone, Eugene; Kapadia, Samir R.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the relationship between the development of transient post-operative atrial fibrillation (TPOAF) following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and risk of long-term mortality. Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) following CABG is common and associated with increased morbidity and mortality in the perioperative period. However the impact of TPOAF and its management on long-term morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG surgery remains unclear. Methods The Cleveland Clinic Cardiovascular Information Registry was used to identify 5,205 consecutive patients who underwent CABG between January 1993 and December 2005. Patients with TPOAF (n=1,490) were compared to those without post-operative AF (n=3,645) for the endpoints of death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke at 1 year. Results Overall rates of 1-year mortality, MI and stroke were 3.7%, 0.8%, and 2.6%, respectively. Patients with TPOAF had an increased risk of death at 1 year as compared to patients without POAF (6.4% vs. 2.7%; P<0.001), but there was not an increased risk of stroke or MI. Multivariate analysis identified TPOAF as an independent predictor of death at 1 year (HR 1.89, 95% CI, 1.42-2.53; P<0.001). After propensity matching, patients who developed TPOAF experienced a significantly increased risk of death compared with those without TPOAF (HR 1.96, 95% CI, 1.34-2.86; P<0.001). Conclusions In patients undergoing first time, isolated CABG, the presence of TPOAF identifies a subgroup of patients at increased risk for all-cause mortality. Future prospective studies to determine potential beneficial interventions in this large population are warranted. PMID:25414823

  4. Prediction of Bond Wire Fatigue of IGBTs in a PV Inverter Under a Long-Term Operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Wang, Huai; Yang, Yongheng

    2016-01-01

    consumption of bond wires of IGBT modules in a Photovoltaic (PV) inverter. The variations in IGBT parameters (e.g., on-state collector-emitter voltage), lifetime models, and environmental and operational stresses are taken into account in the lifetime prediction. The distribution of the annual lifetime...... consumption is estimated based on a long-term annual stress profile of solar irradiance and ambient temperature. The proposed method enables a more realistic lifetime prediction with a specified confidence level compared to the state-of-the-art approaches. A study case of IGBT modules in a 10 kW three......Bond wire fatigue is one of the dominant failure mechanisms in IGBT modules under cyclic stresses. However, there are still major challenges ahead to achieve a realistic bond wire lifetime prediction in field operation. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based analysis method to predict the lifetime...

  5. Prediction of prestressing losses for long term operation of nuclear reactor buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thillard G.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Prestressed concrete is used in nuclear reactor buildings to guarantee containment and structural integrity in case of an accident. Monitoring and operating experience over 40 years has shown that prestressing losses can be much greater than the design estimation based on the usual standard laws. A method was developed to determine the realistic residual prestress level in structures, in particular for those where no embedded instrumentation was installed, taking into account in situ measurement results rather than design characteristics. The results can enable the owner to justify extending the lifespan while guaranteeing adequate safety and to define and plan adequate maintenance actions.

  6. Biofiltration of volatile pollutants: Engineering mechanisms for improved design, long-term operation, prediction, and implementation. 1997 annual progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barton, J.W.; Davison, B.H.; Klasson, K.T.

    1997-01-01

    'Biofiltration systems can be used to treat volatile organic compounds (VOCs); however, the systems are poorly understood and are currently operated as black boxes. Common operational problems associated with biofilters include fouling, deactivation, and overgrowth, all of which make biofilters ineffective for continuous, long-term use. The objective of this investigation is to develop generic methods for long-term stable operation, in particular by using selective limitation of supplemental nutrients while maintaining high activity and the ability to regenerate biofilter activity. As part of this effort, the authors will provide a deeper fundamental understanding of the important biological and transport mechanisms in biodestruction of sparingly soluble VOCs and will extend this engineering approach and developed mathematical models to two additional systems of high-priority environmental management (EM) relevance-direct degradation and cometabolic degradation of priority pollutants such as BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) and TCE (trichioroethylene), respectively. Preliminary results indicate that the author can control overgrowth of the biofilm while sustaining high degradation rates and develop basic predictive models that elucidate mass transfer and kinetic limitations in this system for alkanes. The alkanes are degraded into CO, and waterwith minimal biomass (due to the methodology proposed). This system will be used to test and model additional supplemental nutrient feeding strategies as well as methods to increase the fundamental driving forces by modification of the system. Models will be extended to non-steady-state, long-term operation. The author will examine the nature of the mixed microbial community in the VOC-degrading biofilm and test for new degradative activities. He will use cosolvents with surfactant properties to enhance hydrocarbon solubility in the biofilm and evaluate their impact on mass transfer and reaction rate in an

  7. Prediction of long-term creep curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikawa, Hiroshi; Maruyama, Kouichi

    1992-01-01

    This paper aims at discussing how to predict long-term irradiation enhanced creep properties from short-term tests. The predictive method based on the θ concept was examined by using creep data of ferritic steels. The method was successful in predicting creep curves including the tertiary creep stage as well as rupture lifetimes. Some material constants involved in the method are insensitive to the irradiation environment, and their values obtained in thermal creep are applicable to irradiation enhanced creep. The creep mechanisms of most engineering materials definitely change at the athermal yield stress in the non-creep regime. One should be aware that short-term tests must be carried out at stresses lower than the athermal yield stress in order to predict the creep behavior of structural components correctly. (orig.)

  8. Hanford grout: predicting long-term performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sewart, G.H.; Mitchell, D.H.; Treat, R.L.; McMakin, A.H.

    1987-01-01

    Grouted disposal is being planned for the low-level portion of liquid radioactive wastes at the Hanford site in Washington state. The performance of the disposal system must be such that it will protect people and the environment for thousands of years after disposal. To predict whether a specific grout disposal system will comply with existing and foreseen regulations, a performance assessment (PA) is performed. Long-term PAs are conducted for a range of performance conditions. Performance assessment is an inexact science. Quantifying projected impacts is especially difficult when only scant data exist on the behavior of certain components of the disposal system over thousands of years. To develop defensible results, we are honing the models and obtaining experimental data. The combination of engineered features and PA refinements is being used to ensure that Hanford grout will meet its principal goal: to protect people and the environment in the future

  9. Containment long-term operational integrity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sammataro, R.F.

    1990-01-01

    Periodic integrated leak rate tests are required to assure that containments continue to meet allowable leakage limits. Although overall performance has been quite good to date, several major containment aging and degradation mechanisms have been identified. Two pilot plant life extension (PLEX) studies serve as models for extending the operational integrity of present containments for light-water cooled nuclear power plants in the United States. One study is for a Boiling-Water Reactor (BWR) and the second is for a Pressurized-Water Reactor (PWR). Research and testing programs for determining the ultimate pressure capacity and failure mechanisms for containments under severe loading conditions and studies for extending the life of current plants beyond the present 40-year licensed lifetime are under way. This paper presents an overview of containment designs in the United States. Also presented are a discussion of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (ASME Code) and regulatory authority requirements for the design, construction, inservice inspection, leakage testing and repair of steel and concrete containments. Findings for containments from the pilot PLEX studies and continuing containment integrity research and testing programs are discussed. The ASME Code and regulatory requirements together with recommendations from the PLEX studies and containment integrity research and testing provide a basis for continued containment long-term operational integrity. (orig./GL)

  10. Pre-operative Carotid Plaque Echolucency Assessment has no Predictive Value for Long-Term Risk of Stroke or Cardiovascular Death in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waard, D; de Borst, G J; Bulbulia, R; Pan, H; Halliday, A

    2017-08-01

    In patients with carotid stenosis receiving medical treatment, carotid plaque echolucency has been thought to predict risk of future stroke and of other cardiovascular events. This study evaluated the prognostic value of pre-operative plaque echolucency for future stroke and cardiovascular death in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy in the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1). In ACST-1, 1832/3120 patients underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA), of whom 894 had visual echolucency assessment according to the Gray-Weale classification. During follow-up patients were monitored both for peri-procedural (i.e. within 30 days) death, stroke, or MI, and for long-term risk of stroke or cardiovascular death. Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation was used to calculate odds ratios of peri-procedural risk and Kaplan-Meier statistics with log-rank test were used to compare cumulative long-term risks. Of 894 operated patients in whom echolucency was assessed, 458 plaques (51%) were rated as echolucent and peri-procedural risk of death/stroke/MI in these patients was non-significantly higher when compared with patients with non-echolucent plaques (OR 1.48 [95% CI 0.76-2.88], p = .241). No differences were found in the 10 year risk of any stroke (30/447 [11.6%] vs. 29/433 [11.0%], p = .900) or cardiovascular (non-stroke) death (85/447 [27.9%] vs. 93/433 [32.1%], p = .301). In ACST-1, carotid plaque echolucency assessment in patients undergoing CEA offered no predictive value with regard to peri-operative or long-term stroke risk or of cardiovascular (non-stroke) death. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 -10 5 years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., open-quotes natural analoguesclose quotes) provide perhaps the only means of partial open-quotes validation,close quotes as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10 3 -10 8 years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the open-quotes validationclose quotes of performance assessments

  12. Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, S.H.; Evans, G.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

  13. Long-term behaviour of concrete: development of operational model to predict the evolution of its containment performance. Application to cemented waste packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peycelon, H.; Le Bescop, P.; Richet, C.; Adenot, F.

    2001-01-01

    In order to describe the main phenomena during different stages of cement waste packages life-time and to predict the long-term behaviour (containment performance) of concrete, coupled experiments and modelling studies are achieved. With respect to logical methodology, improvement of these studies is accomplished. Degradation of concrete in low mineralized, carbonated and sulfated water lead to an evolution of chemical characteristics (dissolution/precipitation of solid phases) and of transport properties which must be included or coupled in retention/transport modelling of radio nuclides to predict containment performance. (author)

  14. Introduction of long term cycle of reactor operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyati, M.; Tanaka, T.

    2004-01-01

    Introduction of long term cycle of LWR reactor operation at NPP in Japan is considered, and problems of technical, legislative and economical character, increase of power coefficient are discussed. More long term operation period provides decreasing frequency of periodic inspections and reduction of personnel radiation doses. Reliability of fuel, energetic equipment, mechanisms and devices must be taken into account for the decision of technical problems. Consumptions for electric power generation are studied [ru

  15. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a

  16. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: the impact factor of the journal in which a

  17. Long-term observations of operated and irradiated breast carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decker-Mroz, G.; Schroeder, R.

    1983-01-01

    498 patients with histologically established and surgically removed breast carcinomas received post-operative irradiation treatment at Moabit hospital, Berlin, between 1965 and 1975. The long-term results of this largely standardized therapy have been compiled and evaluated. (orig./MG) [de

  18. Technical aspects of ageing for long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    between 40 and 60 years. Due to the drastic changes in industry, influenced by the declining demand for new nuclear power plants, it is to be expected that in most countries the industrial infrastructure will be reduced to match the requested level of service. In many technical areas continuous development will take place driven by other industrial developments than nuclear. This is certainly to be expected for instrumentation and control but also in the areas of civil engineering, material production and welding technology along with surveillance, testing and inspection technologies. However, there has been a tradition for nuclear industry to be the driving force for engineering development and it is not certain that non-nuclear industries will fully replace this driving force. For non-nuclear industry the level of in-depth analyses and safety demonstration is less demanding up to now. To provide a technical basis for long-term operation of nuclear power plants it is necessary to: - invest in research methods and strategies related to plant life management; - promote computer-aided modelling to predict degradation at a quantitative level; - update the individual plant documentation to avoid gaps in knowledge caused by the reorientation of industry and by the retirement of experienced people; - initiate, develop and promote clubs of users of similar technology internationally; - establish a system of information retrieval to bridge gaps between today's and previous design and manufacturing standards; - increase the flexibility of the quality assurance system to qualify products manufactured to other standards for plant specific use

  19. Long-term operating experience for the ATLAS superconducting resonators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pardo, R.; Zinkann, G.

    1999-01-01

    Portions of the ATLAS accelerator have been operating now for over 21 years. The facility has accumulated several million resonator-hours of operation at this point and has demonstrated the long-term reliability of RF superconductivity. The overall operating performance of the ATLAS facility has established a level of beam quality, flexibility, and reliability not previously achieved with heavy-ion accelerator facilities. The actual operating experience and maintenance history of ATLAS are presented for ATLAS resonators and associated electronics systems. Solutions to problems that appeared in early operation as well as current problems needing further development are discussed

  20. Comparison of Plant Life Management Approaches for Long Term Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kisig

    2012-01-01

    Plant life management can be defined as the integration of ageing and economic planning to maintain a high level of safety and optimize operations. Many Member States have given high priority to long term operation of nuclear power plants beyond the time frame originally anticipated (e. g. 30 or 40 years). Out of a total of 445 (369 GWe) operating nuclear power plants, 349 units (297 GWe) have been in operation for more than 20 years (as of November 2011). The need for engineering support to operation, maintenance, safety review and life management for long term operation as well as education and training in the field is increasingly evident. In addition the Fukushima accident has rendered all stake holders even more attentive to safety concerns and to the provision of beyond safety measures in the preparation and scrutiny of applications for operational design life extensions. In many countries, the safety performance of NPPs is periodically followed and characterized via the periodic safety review (PSR) approach. The regulatory The regulatory review and acceptance of the PSR gives the licensee the permission to operate the plant for up to the end of the next PSR cycle (usually 10 years). In the USA and other countries operating US designed plants, the license renewal application is based on the five pre-requisite requirements and ageing management programme for passive long life system structure and components(SSCs) and active systems is adequately addressed by the maintenance rule (MR) requirements and other established regulatory processes. Other Member States have adopted a combined approach that incorporates elements of both PSR and additional LRA specific requirements primarily focused on time limited ageing analysis. Taking into account this variety of approaches, the international atomic energy agency (IAEA) initiated work for collecting and sharing information among Member States about good practices on plant life management for long term operation in

  1. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Prediction of long-term behaviour for nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; King, F.; Sunder, S.

    1996-09-01

    The modelling procedures developed for the long-term prediction of the corrosion of used fuel and of titanium and copper nuclear waste containers are described. The corrosion behaviour of these materials changes with time as the conditions within the conceptual disposal vault evolve from an early warm, oxidizing phase to an indefinite period of cool, anoxic conditions. For the two candidate container materials, this evolution of conditions means that the containers will be initially susceptible to localized corrosion but that in the long-term, corrosion should be more general in nature. The propagation of the pitting of Cu and of the crevice corrosion of Ti alloys is modelled using statistical models. General corrosion processes are modelled deterministically. For the fuel, deterministic electrochemical models have been developed to predict the long-term dissolution rate of U0 2 . The corrosion behaviour of materials in the disposal vault can be influenced by reengineering the vault environment. For instance, increasing the areal loading of containers will produce higher vault temperatures resulting in more extensive drying of the porous backfill materials. The initiation of crevice corrosion on Ti may then be delayed, leading to longer container lifetimes. For copper containers, minimizing the amount Of O 2 initially trapped in the pores of the backfill, or adding reducing agents to consume this O 2 faster, will limit the extent of corrosion, permitting a reduction of the container wall thickness necessary for containment. (author). 55 refs., 19 figs

  3. Long-term safety issues associated with mixer pump operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubic, W.L. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    In this report, we examine several long-term issues: the effect of pump operation on future gas release events (GREs), uncontrolled chemical reactions, chronic toxic gas releases, foaming, and erosion and corrosion. Heat load in excess of the design limit, uncontrolled chemical reactions, chronic toxic gas releases, foaming, and erosion and corrosion have been shown not to be safety concerns. The effect of pump operation on future GREs could not be quantified. The problem with evaluating the long-term effects of pump operation on GREs is a lack of knowledge and uncertainty. In particular, the phenomena governing gas retention, particle size distribution, and settling are not well understood, nor are the interactions among these factors understood. There is a possibility that changes in these factors could increase the size of future GREs. Bounding estimates of the potential increase in size of GREs are not possible because of a lack of engineering data. Proper management of the hazards can reduce, but not eliminate, the possibility of undesirable changes. Maintaining temperature within the historical limits can reduce the possibility of undesirable changes. A monitoring program to detect changes in the gas composition and crust thickness will help detect slowly occurring changes. Because pump operation has be shown to eliminate GREs, continued pump operation can eliminate the hazards associated with future GREs

  4. Plant life time management for safe long term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burket, Danes

    2010-01-01

    The topics discussed include LTO (long-term operation) and licensing procedure in general and specifically for the Dukovany NPP, components of an LTO programme, the PLIM (plant life management) concept for Dukovany and Temelin, the LTO implementation project for Dukovany, LTO strategy, LTO risk study, international verification. The Conclusions include the following items: (i) Technical-economic study of Dukovany NPP LTO demonstrates technical feasibility and economic profitability of Dukovany NPP LTO with perspective for up to 60 years of operation. (ii) Safety part of Program for assurance of Dukovany NPP LTO complies with IAEA SALTO recommendations. (iii) Dukovany NPP LTO programme incorporated IAEA SALTO Peer Review Mission recommendations. (iv) LTO Implementation Project for 2009-2015 was approved with major targets to renew operational permission and prepare NPP for operation up to 60 years. (v) Preparation of Temelin NPP LTO programme has been started. (P.A.)

  5. Preparation of Long Term Operation in Dukovany NPP, Czech Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krivanek, R.; Sabata, M.

    2012-01-01

    Dukovany NPP in the south-east of the Czech Republic operates four VVER 440/213 type units. The first unit was commissioned in 1985 and the last one in 1987. The operational results of the whole NPP have been excellent and NPP permanently belongs between the first quartile of the best operated NPPs in the world in accordance with WANO factors. Large safety improvement programme have been implemented in last 15 years. The original design lifetime of main components is 30 years which means till 2015 and it is understandable that NPP is preparing for long-term operation (LTO). The paper is describing activities carried out and planned for safe and successful LTO. (author)

  6. Kesiapan Operator Seluler dalam Mengimplementasikan Teknologi Long Term Evolution (LTE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Ariyanti

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar kesiapan operator seluler dalam mengimplementasikan teknologi Long Term Evolution (LTE. Model penelitian dengan menggunakan mengadopsi teknik Net Readiness Framwork. Adapun kriteria pengukurannya terdiri dari Leadership, Governance, Competencies dan Technology. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan menyebarkan kuesioner kepada operator seluler di Indonesia dan melakukan wawancara kepada regulator. Kajian ini menggunakan teknik analisis data kuantitatif deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PT. Axis, PT. HCPT dan PT. Telkomsel mempunyai tingkat kesiapan LTE Visionary yang berarti perusahaan sangat antusias dalam perubahan dan lebih dahulu mengambil resiko untuk mengimplementasikan LTE dalam organisasinya yang merupakan bagian yang tak terpisahkan proses bisnis perusahaan. PT. Indosat dan PT. XL mempunyai nilai kesiapan LTE leader  yang berarti perusahaan mampu mengadaptasi perubahan dan menginspirasi organsiasi lain dalam penerapan LTE. PT. Smartfren pada tingkat kesiapan LTE savvy yang berarti operator seluler memahami sebab dan efek dari perubahan dari munculnya LTE terhadap organisasi, namun belum melakukan adaptasi.

  7. Differential maps, difference maps, interpolated maps, and long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talman, R.

    1988-06-01

    Mapping techniques may be thought to be attractive for the long term prediction of motion in accelerators, especially because a simple map can approximately represent an arbitrarily complicated lattice. The intention of this paper is to develop prejudices as to the validity of such methods by applying them to a simple, exactly solveable, example. It is shown that a numerical interpolation map, such as can be generated in the accelerator tracking program TEAPOT, predicts the evolution more accurately than an analytically derived differential map of the same order. Even so, in the presence of ''appreciable'' nonlinearity, it is shown to be impractical to achieve ''accurate'' prediction beyond some hundreds of cycles of oscillation. This suggests that the value of nonlinear maps is restricted to the parameterization of only the ''leading'' deviation from linearity. 41 refs., 6 figs

  8. Long-term operation in Korea - Continued operation of Wolsong 1 Long-term operation of existing reactors in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, Su Hwan; Straub, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    Session 6 identified some key stakeholder concerns or interests that shape their considerations on renewing a nuclear power plant licence or extending facility lifetime. These included the safety of long-term operations, the potential need for upgrades or additional investment, and the timing and implementation of such investments. Mr Bae of the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company presented the current nuclear power programme in Korea and the company's experience with stakeholder involvement, specifically related to the licence renewal of Wolsong unit 1 that included a formal agreement between Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company and the local communities around the plant. Mr Straub, of the Swiss Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications, provided insight on the current restructuring of the Swiss energy strategy, and the Swiss form of 'direct democracy' that involves frequent public referenda. The proposed energy strategy to be assessed by voters in May 2017 would include a gradual phase-out of nuclear power. Citizens' perception of safe operations, the competence and openness of nuclear actors and the benefits that nuclear plants bring to the local population play a role in their judgement of whether facilities should continue with long-term operations. While for a new facility there is not as much time to establish the relationship and build a rapport and reputation with the community, in the case of existing plants there is history and experience either to build on or to overcome. Each set of decisions has a number of stakeholders, but the general public living around the plant was highlighted as a primary stakeholder. In the case of Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power's licence renewal efforts at Wolsong 1, gaining and maintaining the support of the surrounding communities is critical. The company applied lessons learnt from past experiences and in a year-long process pursued an agreement with representatives appointed by the

  9. R&D of MCFC matrix for long term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishimura, Takashi; Fujita, Yoji; Urushibata, Hiroaki; Sasaki, Akira [Mitsubishi Electric Corp., Hyogo (Japan)

    1996-12-31

    Long term operation is an essential subject in the commercialization of the Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC). Material stability is important for the development of the MCFC. particularly for long term operation. In this paper, the specification and the stabilization of MCFC matrix arc investigated, with the aim of producing 40000 hours of operation. It is common knowledge that matrix thickness has a large influence on shorting time, as shorting is caused by the dissolution of the nickel oxide cathodes. Therefore, the optimum thickness of a matrix designed for 40000 hours operation without the nickel shorting was sought. The influences of different electrolytes and matrix specifications on the shorting time were measured with accelerated cell tests. The internal resistance of the matrix was also estimated. Gamma( {gamma} )-lithium aluminate (LiAlO{sub 2}) powder with a sub-micron particle diameter is commonly used for a raw material of matrix to retain molten carbonate electrolytes. This is because most researchers found that {gamma}-LiA1O{sub 2} was the most stable material in the MCFC environment among the three allotropic forms alpha ( {alpha} ), beta ( {beta} ), and {gamma}. However. two problems with the stability of {gamma} -LiAlO{sub 2} are being vigorously discussed. especially in Japan: particle growth causes decreasing electrolyte retention, and the transformation of {gamma} to {alpha}. This transformation contradicts the accepted opinion that {gamma} is the most stable form. In this paper, the particle growth and the phase transformation of LiAlO{sub 2} are examined with post-test analyses. The influence of matrix degradation on cell performance is also considered.

  10. Long-Term Prediction of Satellite Orbit Using Analytical Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Cheol Yoon

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available A long-term prediction algorithm of geostationary orbit was developed using the analytical method. The perturbation force models include geopotential upto fifth order and degree and luni-solar gravitation, and solar radiation pressure. All of the perturbation effects were analyzed by secular variations, short-period variations, and long-period variations for equinoctial elements such as the semi-major axis, eccentricity vector, inclination vector, and mean longitude of the satellite. Result of the analytical orbit propagator was compared with that of the cowell orbit propagator for the KOREASAT. The comparison indicated that the analytical solution could predict the semi-major axis with an accuarcy of better than ~35meters over a period of 3 month.

  11. Validation of BN Reactor Plant Long-Term Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vilensky, O.; Vasilyev, B.; Kaidalov, V.

    2013-01-01

    The BN RP operation life time is mainly determined by resource of non-replaceable equipment. The new standard (RD) “Procedure of strength analysis for main components of sodium cooled fast neutron reactor plants” was developed to validate structure strength in view of radiation effects and degradation of material properties within the time period up to 300000 hours and under irradiation, as well as development of postulated crack-like defects. Using this RD, the extension of operation life of BN-600 reactor non-replaceable components from 30 to 45 years, as well as strength and durability of the most loaded non-replaceable components of BN-800 RP under construction were validated for the specified 45-year operation life. Wider application of steel 16Cr-11Ni-3Mo refers to new decisions in BN-1200 RP design that allow increasing of operation life of the most loaded non-replaceable components up to 60 years. High-chromium steel 12Cr-Ni-Mo-V-Nb is a new material, which was proposed for SG design to increase the operation life up to 30 years. In addition, the austenitic steels 18Cr-9Ni and 16Cr-11Ni-3Mo are now under upgrading for future application of them in commercial BN-1200 RP. To provide additional long-term reliable and safe operation of BN-1200 RP equipment and pipelines, it is planned to develop and implement the lifetime operational monitoring system

  12. Mitigating the Long term Operating Extreme Load through Active Control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koukoura, Christina; Natarajan, Anand

    2014-01-01

    The parameters influencing the long term extreme operating design loads are identified through the implementation of a Design of Experiment (DOE) method. A function between the identified critical factors and the ultimate out-of-plane loads on the blade is determined. Variations in the initial blade azimuth location are shown to affect the extreme blade load magnitude during operation in normal turbulence wind input. The simultaneously controlled operation of generator torque variation and pitch variation at low blade pitch angles is detected to be responsible for very high loads acting on the blades. Through gain scheduling of the controller (modifications of the proportional Kp and the integral K gains) the extreme loads are mitigated, ensuring minimum instantaneous variations in the power production for operation above rated wind speed. The response of the blade load is examined for different values of the integral gain as resulting in rotor speed error and the rate of change of rotor speed. Based on the results a new load case for the simulation of extreme loads during normal operation is also presented

  13. Long-term performance of motor-operated valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scarbrough, T.G.

    1996-12-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires that motor-operated valves (MOVs) important to safety be designed, fabricated, erected, and tested to quality standards commensurate with the importance of the safety functions to be performed. Despite these requirements, operating experience and research revealed problems with the performance of MOVs in operating nuclear power plants. In response to the concerns about MOV performance, the NRC issued Generic Letter (GL) 89-10, {open_quotes}Safety-Related Motor-Operated Valve Testing and Surveillance,{close_quotes} and its supplements. Most licensees have completed the aspects of their GL 89-10 programs associated with the review of MOV design bases, verification of MOV switch settings initially, testing of MOVs under design-basis conditions where practicable, and improvement of evaluations of MOV failures and necessary corrective action. Licensees are establishing processes to ensure that the long-term aspects of their MOV programs, such as periodic verification of MOV capability and the trending of MOV problems, are maintained. The NRC staff is developing a generic letter to address periodic verification of MOV design-basis capability.

  14. Long-term performance of motor-operated valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarbrough, T.G.

    1996-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires that motor-operated valves (MOVs) important to safety be designed, fabricated, erected, and tested to quality standards commensurate with the importance of the safety functions to be performed. Despite these requirements, operating experience and research revealed problems with the performance of MOVs in operating nuclear power plants. In response to the concerns about MOV performance, the NRC issued Generic Letter (GL) 89-10, open-quotes Safety-Related Motor-Operated Valve Testing and Surveillance,close quotes and its supplements. Most licensees have completed the aspects of their GL 89-10 programs associated with the review of MOV design bases, verification of MOV switch settings initially, testing of MOVs under design-basis conditions where practicable, and improvement of evaluations of MOV failures and necessary corrective action. Licensees are establishing processes to ensure that the long-term aspects of their MOV programs, such as periodic verification of MOV capability and the trending of MOV problems, are maintained. The NRC staff is developing a generic letter to address periodic verification of MOV design-basis capability

  15. Maintenance Issues in Long Term Operation of Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contri, P.; Bieth, M.; Rieg, C.

    2006-01-01

    Due to current social and economical framework, in last years many nuclear power plant owners started a program for the Long Term Operation (LTO)/PLEX (Plant Life Extension) of their older nuclear facilities. This process has many nuclear safety implications, other than strategic and political ones. The need for tailoring the available safety assessment tools to such applications has become urgent in recent years and triggered many research actions. The review of regular maintenance and ageing management programs are tools widely used in LTO/PLEX context in many Countries. However, most of these tools are rather general and in many cases they need reshaping in an LTO/PLEX framework before application, with focus to the safety implications of the LTO/PLEX. Many Countries and plants radically modified their maintenance rules towards a condition based approach as a precondition for the implementation of LTO/PLEX programs. In 2004 a network of European Organisations operating Nuclear Power Plants, SENUF, under the coordination of the JRC-IE, carried out an extensive questionnaire on maintenance practice in their facilities aiming at capturing the aspects of the maintenance programs where research is mostly needed. This paper uses some results of the questionnaire, which was not oriented to LTO/PLEX, to draw some conclusions on how the current maintenance programs could support a potential LTO/PLEX, among the other programs running at NPPs. In this sense, it is spin-off of the SENUF WG on maintenance. The paper aims at identifying the technical attributes of the maintenance programs more directly affecting the decision for a long-term safe operation of a nuclear facility, the issues related to their implementation and safety review. The paper includes an analysis of the questionnaire circulated among the SENUF participants and a discussion on the implications of optimised maintenance programs in existing plants. Some examples at WWER plants taken by sources other than

  16. Mobile dental operations: capital budgeting and long-term viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevalo, Oscar; Chattopadhyay, Amit; Lester, Harold; Skelton, Judy

    2010-01-01

    The University of Kentucky College of Dentistry (UKCD) runs a large mobile dental operation. Economic conditions dictate that as the mobile units age it will be harder to find donors willing or able to provide the financial resources for asset replacement. In order to maintain current levels of access for the underserved, consideration of replacement is paramount. A financial analysis for a new mobile unit was conducted to determine self-sustainability, return on investment (ROI), and feasibility of generating a cash reserve for its replacement in 12 years. Information on clinical income, operational and replacement costs, and capital costs was collected. A capital budgeting analysis (CBA) was conducted using the Net Present Value (NPV) methodology in four different scenarios. Depreciation funding was calculated by transferring funds from cash inflows and reinvested to offset depreciation at fixed compound interest. A positive ROI was obtained for two scenarios. He depreciation fund did not generate a cash reserve sufficient to replace the mobile unit. Mobile dental programs can play a vital role in providing access to care to underserved populations and ensuring their mission requires long-term planning. Careful financial viability and CBA based on sound assumptions are excellent decision-making tools.

  17. Predicting the long term stabilisation of uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trojacek, J.

    2004-01-01

    The long-term stabilization and remediation of uranium mill tailings ponds is an important task for DIAMO. After uranium mining was stopped, DIAMO has to remediate more then 400 ha of tailings ponds at three locations. It is currently planned to cover the surface with low permeability materials with a slope of approx. 3% to protect the interior of the disposal facility from infiltrating rainwater. This entails to cover the free surface of these ponds with several hundred thousand tons of inert material. As a result of this load, the porewater from the tailings is expelled and the body of the impounded materials consolidates. Consolidation of tailings proceeds irregularly, depending on the internal structure of the tailings layers and on the progress of loading. The surface needs to be recontoured for a long time into the future. The topic of the DIAMO project is to predict and optimise the final surface contour of the tailings pond body, and to determine the time schedule and locations for recontouring work. The K1 tailings pond in Dolni Rozinka (Southern Moravia) is a typical example for such task. The average thickness of the tailings layer is around 25 m and the average porewater contents varies from 25 up to 40%. In the years 1998-99 a PHARE pilot project was undertaken that aimed to predict the quantity and quality of drainage and infiltration waters as a function of time. A new investigation programme (field, laboratory and modelling) has been implemented. The range of material properties and distribution of types of tailings was established. Orientation calculations of the tailings consolidation were made for fine slime zone. The results have shown that significant subsidence of the surface is to be expected after loading with inert material for the construction of an interim cover. (author)

  18. Plant life management for long term operation of light water reactors. Principles and guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The subject of this report was originally suggested by the IAEA Technical Working Group on Life Management of Nuclear Power Plants. It was then approved by the IAEA for work to begin in 2004. The participants in the group felt that it was time to address plant life management and ageing issues from the point of view of long term operation and licence renewal. It is believed that the nuclear power industry will only be able to survive if plant economics are favourable and safety is maintained. Therefore, the issue of ageing and obsolescence has to be addressed from an operational and safety standpoint, but also in the context of plant economics in terms of the cost of electricity production, including initial and recurring capital costs. Use of new technologies, such as advanced in-service inspection and condition based maintenance, should be considered, not only to predict the consequences of ageing and guard against them, but also to monitor equipment performance throughout the lifetime of the plant and to help establish replacement schedules for critical systems, structures and components, and to better estimate the optimum end of the operating licence, which means the end of the nuclear power plant's lifetime. The importance of nuclear power plant life management in facilitating the technical and economic goals of long term operation is presented in this report in terms of the requirement to ensure safe long term supplies of electricity in the most economically competitive way. Safe and reliable operation is discussed in terms of the overall economic benefits when plant life management is implemented. Preconditions for plant life management for long term operation are identified and approaches are reviewed. Plant life management should not be associated only with the extension of the operational lifetime of the nuclear power plant, but with an owner's attitude and a rational approach of the operating company towards running the business economically and safely

  19. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  20. The Barrier code for predicting long-term concrete performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, R.; Rogers, V.C.; Shaw, R.A.

    1989-01-01

    There are numerous features incorporated into a LLW disposal facility that deal directly with critical safety objectives required by the NRC in 10 CFR 61. Engineered barriers or structures incorporating concrete are commonly being considered for waste disposal facilities. The Barrier computer code calculates the long-term degradation of concrete structures in LLW disposal facilities. It couples this degradation with water infiltration into the facility, nuclide leaching from the waste, contaminated water release from the facility, and associated doses to members of the critical population group. The concrete degradation methodology of Barrier is described

  1. Prediction of the Long Term Cooling Performance for the 3-Pin Fuel Test Loop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. K.; Chi, D. Y.; Sim, B. S.; Park, K. N.; Ahn, S. H.; Lee, J. M.; Lee, C. Y.; Kim, H. R

    2005-12-15

    In the long term cooling phase that the emergency cooling water injection ends, the performance of the residual heat removal for the 3-pin fuel test loop has been predicted by a simplified heat transfer model. In the long term cooling phase the residual heat is 1323W for PWR fuel test mode and 1449W for CANDU fuel test mode. The each residual heat is assumed as 2% of the fission power of the test fuel used in the anticipated operational occurrence and design basis accident analyses. The each fission power used for the analyses is 105% of the rated fission power in the normal operation. In the long term cooling phase the residual heat is removed to the HANARO pool through the double pressure vessels of the in-pile test section. Saturate pooling boiling is assumed on the test fuel and condensation heat transfer is expected on the inner wall of the fuel carrier and the flow divider. Natural convection heat transfer on a heated vertical wall is also assumed on the outer wall of the outer pressure vessel. The conduction heat transfer is only considered in the gap between the double pressure vessels charged with neon gas and in the downcomer filled with coolant. The heat transfer rate between the coolant temperature of 152 .deg. C in the in-pile test section and the water temperature of 45 .deg. C in the HANARO pool is predicted as about 1666W. The 152 .deg. C is the saturate temperature of the coolant pressure predicted from the MARS code. The cooling capacity of 1666W is greater than the residual heats of 1323W and 1449W. Consequently the long term cooling performance of the 3-pin fuel test loop is sufficient for the anticipated operational occurrences and design basis accidents.

  2. Long-Term MRI Findings in Operated Rotator Cuff Tear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyroelae, K.; Niemitukia, L.; Jaroma, H.; Vaeaetaeinen, U.

    2004-01-01

    Purpose: To describe magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings at long-term follow-up after rotator cuff (RC) tear using standard MRI sequences without fat saturation. Material and Methods: Twenty-eight patients aged 55.8±7.6 underwent MRI examination 4.6±2.1 years after surgery for RC tear. Standard sequences in oblique coronal, oblique sagittal, and axial planes were obtained. The RC, including re-tears and tendon degeneration, was independently evaluated by two observers. Thickness of the supraspinatus tendon and narrowing of the subacromial space were measured. The clinical outcome was evaluated with the Constant score and compared with the MRI findings. Results: The RC tear was traumatic in 18 (64%) patients and degenerative in 10 (36%). At follow-up, 11 (39%) had normal RC tendons with good clinical outcome. Four (14%) patients had painful tendinosis without RC tear. A full-thickness RC tear was found in 7 (25%) patients and a partial tear in 6 (21%). In one patient with a full-thickness tear, and in two with partial tear, tendinosis was found in another of the RC tendons. The subacromial space was narrowed in 13 (46%) of the patients. A narrowing of the subacromial space correlated with re-tear (P<0.05). Conclusions: The RC may be evaluated with standard MRI sequences without fat saturation at long-term follow-up. A normal appearance of the RC is correlated with good clinical outcome, while re-tear and tendinosis are associated with pain

  3. Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leela K Lella

    Full Text Available The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF, independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR, independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery.From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered 30 days outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months.Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25% and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50% (p<0.001. Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30% and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59% (p<0.001. Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05. Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03. Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization.Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures.

  4. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2018-02-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  5. Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

  6. The prediction of the long-term behaviour of glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtois, Ch.; Regent, A.; Plas, F.

    1997-01-01

    Several experts draw a conclusion about the scientific content of this week-long seminar. All agree to highlight the variety and quality of the work done. It appears that there is a consensus about the phenomenology of the long-term behaviour of glasses. All the parameters that are likely to intervene in alteration processes have been identified, but some particular points require further studies: - the impact of alpha, beta and gamma irradiation, - the alteration of glass in no-saturated water, - the coupling effect with the materials surrounding glass (metal canister, over-container...), - the optimization of glass composition to deal with high burn-up spent fuels, - the relation between the formation free energy of glasses and their alteration kinetics, - the release of radionuclides trapped in glass, and - the use of mutual analogue. (A.C.)

  7. Practical implications for RPV irradiation surveillance under long term operation based on latest research results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hein, H.; Keim, E.; Barthelmes, J.; Schnabel, H.

    2015-01-01

    The international programs CARISMA, CARINA and LONGLIFE belong to the research programs which have been performed during the last 10 years to study the irradiation behavior of RPV steels under long term operation of more than 60 years. Some characteristic but different irradiated RPV steels used in Pressurized Water Reactors have been extensively investigated in each of those three programs. Whereas the CARISMA and CARINA programs were mainly focused on material testing to study the irradiation-induced change of material properties in terms of fracture toughness, the main objective of LONGLIFE was to investigate the change of microstructure with various analysis techniques and to understand the mechanisms behind. In this way it was possible to get a comprehensive material characterization in terms of macro-physical properties and micro-structural features for a number of RPV steels which have been studied at different irradiation levels up to 8*10 19 cm -2 (E > 1 MeV). The essential macro-physical and micro-structural results are summarized, in particular regarding the impact of copper and nickel, and the neutron flux on the irradiation behavior and with respect to possible late irradiation effects under long term operation. Moreover, the change of material properties is linked with embrittlement mechanisms such as formation of element specific precipitations, segregations, and matrix defects. Well-known trend curves are also applied to the measured T 41 and T 0 data in order to assess their appropriateness for long term operation. Based on the comprehensive available data base, practical implications for RPV irradiation surveillance programs under long term operation are highlighted with respect to issues like material specific application of reference temperature concepts, data scattering, prediction of high fluence behavior and how to cope with possible late irradiation effects. Finally, best practices for RPV irradiation surveillance programs are suggested from

  8. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  9. Improvement of Regulatory Framework for Long-Term Operation and Ageing Management of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostenko, S.P.

    2015-01-01

    The regulatory framework for long-term operation and ageing management of NPP units in Ukraine was reviewed and deficiencies were identified. The procedure for improving regulatory framework for long-term operation and ageing management is presented. It takes into consideration IAEA recommendations and international practices, as well as experience obtained in long-term operation efforts for Rivne NPP-1, 2 and South Ukraine NPP-1. The paper demonstrates interrelations between standards and technical documents on long-term operation and ageing management. The information is presented regarding the current state of regulatory and legal documentation development and industry-specific standards on long-term operation and ageing management of NPP units in Ukraine

  10. Mitigating the Long term Operating Extreme Load through Active Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina; Natarajan, Anand

    2014-01-01

    blade azimuth location are shown to affect the extreme blade load magnitude during operation in normal turbulence wind input. The simultaneously controlled operation of generator torque variation and pitch variation at low blade pitch angles is detected to be responsible for very high loads acting...... on the blades. Through gain scheduling of the controller (modifications of the proportional Kp and the integral Ki gains) the extreme loads are mitigated, ensuring minimum instantaneous variations in the power production for operation above rated wind speed. The response of the blade load is examined...

  11. Completely automated nuclear reactors for long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teller, E.; Ishikawa, M.; Wood, L.

    1996-01-01

    The authors discuss new types of nuclear fission reactors optimized for the generation of high-temperature heat for exceedingly safe, economic, and long-duration electricity production in large, long-lived central power stations. These reactors are quite different in design, implementation and operation from conventional light-water-cooled and -moderated reactors (LWRs) currently in widespread use, which were scaled-up from submarine nuclear propulsion reactors. They feature an inexpensive initial fuel loading which lasts the entire 30-year design life of the power-plant. The reactor contains a core comprised of a nuclear ignitor and a nuclear burn-wave propagating region comprised of natural thorium or uranium, a pressure shell for coolant transport purposes, and automatic emergency heat-dumping means to obviate concerns regarding loss-of-coolant accidents during the plant's operational and post-operational life. These reactors are proposed to be situated in suitable environments at ∼100 meter depths underground, and their operation is completely automatic, with no moving parts and no human access during or after its operational lifetime, in order to avoid both error and misuse. The power plant's heat engine and electrical generator subsystems are located above-ground

  12. Challenges in long-term operation of nuclear power plants - Implications for regulatory bodies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soda, Kunihisa; Van Wonterghem, Frederik; Khouaja, Hatem; Vilpas, Martti; Osouf, Nicolas; Harikumar, S.; Ishigaki, Hiroki; Osaki, Toru; Yamada, Tomoho; Carlsson, Lennart; Shepherd, David; Galloway, Melanie; Liszka, Ervin; Svab, Miroslav; Pereira, Ken; Huerta, Alejandro

    2012-01-01

    Nuclear power reactors have become a major source of electricity supply in many countries in the past half a century. Based on this experience, many operators have sought and have received authorisation for long-term operation, whereby plant operation continues beyond the period considered in the design of the plant. Acceptance of a nuclear power plant for extended service should be based on assurance of the fitness of the plant and the operator for safe and reliable operation over the entire period considered for long-term operation. This assurance may be obtained by establishment of appropriate regulatory requirements, specification of goals and safety levels and regulatory assessment and oversight of the operator's programme for long-term operation. The operators and regulators should ensure that operating experience continues to be evaluated during long-term operation to ensure that any relevant lessons are effectively applied. Other considerations for assurance of safe operation are effective management of ageing, possible need for safety improvements, application of lessons learnt from operating experience, evaluation of environmental impacts, adequate staff resources and performance, review of security at the plant, action in response to emerging issues, and openness and transparency in the transition to long-term operation. Even though most of these considerations are addressed under the regulatory framework that applies to the initial operating period, additional regulatory activities in these areas may be necessary for long-term operation. Although there can be significant differences in regulatory approaches used by different countries for evaluating acceptability of long-term operation, there is general agreement on the purposes and goals of the regulatory reviews. An authorisation of long-term operation could involve a licence renewal or a periodic safety review or an approach that melds elements of both. This report presents guidance that is intended

  13. Safety requirements for long term operation of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houdre, T.; Osouf, N.; Juvin, J.-C.

    2012-01-01

    In the future, the reactors operating at present will run alongside reactors of the EPR type or their equivalent, designed for a significantly higher level of safety. This raises the question of the acceptability of continued operation of reactors beyond 40 years when there is an available technology that is safer. Two objectives are therefore imperative. First, a re-evaluation of the safety level in the light of that required of EPR type reactors or their equivalent is necessary, with proposals to bring about significant and relevant improvements to the reactors. R and D work in France and elsewhere is already indicating orientations that could lead to answers, and improvements that would provide significant reductions in release in case of severe accident are being studied. Second, strict compliance of the reactors with the applicable regulations must be demonstrated. At the same time, ageing and obsolescence of the equipment will have to be managed. Where these two points are concerned, ASN expects far-reaching proposals from the licensee. With a view to a request for continued operation beyond 40 years, ASN has referred the matter to the Advisory Committee for nuclear reactors which will meet at the end of 2011 to establish the safety requirements for reactors at their fourth ten-yearly outage. (author)

  14. Major depressive disorder subtypes to predict long-term course

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Loo, Hanna M.; Cai, Tianxi; Gruber, Michael J.; Li, Junlong; de Jonge, Peter; Petukhova, Maria; Rose, Sherri; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wardenaar, Klaas J.; Wilcox, Marsha A.; Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Andrade, Laura Helena; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Bunting, Brendan; Fayyad, John; Florescu, Silvia E.; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Nakane, Yoshibumi; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Xavier, Miguel; Zarkov, Zahari; Kessler, Ronald C.

    2016-01-01

    Background Variation in course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing subtype distinctions. A new subtyping approach is considered here. Methods Two data mining techniques, ensemble recursive partitioning and Lasso generalized linear models (GLMs) followed by k-means cluster analysis, are used to search for subtypes based on index episode symptoms predicting subsequent MDD course in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. The WMH surveys are community surveys in 16 countries. Lifetime DSM-IV MDD was reported by 8,261 respondents. Retrospectively reported outcomes included measures of persistence (number of years with an episode; number of with an episode lasting most of the year) and severity (hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Results Recursive partitioning found significant clusters defined by the conjunctions of early onset, suicidality, and anxiety (irritability, panic, nervousness-worry-anxiety) during the index episode. GLMs found additional associations involving a number of individual symptoms. Predicted values of the four outcomes were strongly correlated. Cluster analysis of these predicted values found three clusters having consistently high, intermediate, or low predicted scores across all outcomes. The high-risk cluster (30.0% of respondents) accounted for 52.9-69.7% of high persistence and severity and was most strongly predicted by index episode severe dysphoria, suicidality, anxiety, and early onset. A total symptom count, in comparison, was not a significant predictor. Conclusions Despite being based on retrospective reports, results suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made using data mining methods. Further studies are needed to test and expand these results with prospective data. PMID:24425049

  15. Long term operation of nuclear power plants - economic challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David, J.; Devezeaux de Lavergne, J.G.; Duquesnoy, T.

    2014-01-01

    The lifetime extension of nuclear power plants is an open issue in a lot of countries. At the international scale, the costs of upgrading the plant equipment were assessed in 2012 to be between 500 and 1000 dollars per kWe. The post-Fukushima measures taken for increasing the safety standard of the plant reach around 15% of the bill. In almost all countries the lifetime extension strategy appears to be economical if the extension time is for 10 years at least. For France the lifetime extension strategy is also economical: a recent report of the 'French Court of Auditors' concludes that the complete cost of nuclear energy in 2013 is 59.8 euros/MWh and is estimated to reach 62 euros/MWh in the case of a lifetime extension to 50 years of operation which is still very competitive. Another advantage of the life extension strategy is to allow a smoothing of the investment needs and of the industrial loads: the replacement of reactors would take place on a broader period. (A.C.)

  16. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved...

  17. Prediction on long-term mean and mean square pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, S; Lamb, R G; Seinfeld, J H

    1976-01-01

    The general problem of predicting long-term average (say yearly) pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere is formulated. The pollutant concentration can be viewed as a random process, the complete description of which requires knowledge of its probability density function, which is unknown. The mean concentration is the first moment of the concentration distribution, and at present there exist a number of models for predicting the long-term mean concentration of an inert pollutant. The second moment, or mean square concentration, indicates additional features of the distribution, such as the level of fluctuations about the mean. In the paper a model proposed by Lamb for the long-term mean concentration is reviewed, and a new model for prediction of the long-term mean square concentration of an inert air pollutant is derived. The properties and uses of the model are discussed, and the equations defining the model are presented in a form for direct application to an urban area.

  18. MAGIC biomarkers predict long term outcomes for steroid-resistant acute GVHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major-Monfried, Hannah; Renteria, Anne S; Pawarode, Attaphol; Reddy, Pavan; Ayuk, Francis; Holler, Ernst; Efebera, Yvonne A; Hogan, William J; Wölfl, Matthias; Qayed, Muna; Hexner, Elizabeth O; Wudhikarn, Kitsada; Ordemann, Rainer; Young, Rachel; Shah, Jay; Hartwell, Matthew J; Chaudhry, Mohammed; Aziz, Mina; Etra, Aaron; Yanik, Gregory A; Kröger, Nicolaus; Weber, Daniela; Chen, Yi-Bin; Nakamura, Ryotaro; Rösler, Wolf; Kitko, Carrie L; Harris, Andrew C; Pulsipher, Michael; Reshef, Ran; Kowalyk, Steven; Morales, George; Torres, Ivan; Özbek, Umut; Ferrara, James L M; Levine, John E

    2018-03-15

    Acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) is treated with systemic corticosteroid immunosuppression. Clinical response after one week of therapy often guides further treatment decisions, but long term outcomes vary widely between centers and more accurate predictive tests are urgently needed. We analyzed clinical data and blood samples taken after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD from 507 patients from 17 centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC), dividing them into test (n=236) and two validation cohorts separated in time (n = 142 and 129, respectively). Initial response to systemic steroids correlated with response at four weeks, one-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS). A previously validated algorithm of two MAGIC biomarkers (ST2 and REG3α) consistently separated steroid resistant patients into two groups with dramatically different NRM and OS (p<0.001 for all three cohorts). High biomarker probability, resistance to steroids and GVHD severity (Minnesota risk) were all significant predictors of NRM in multivariate analysis. A direct comparison of receiver operating curves showed the area under the curve for biomarker probability (0.82) was significantly greater than that for steroid response (0.68, p=0.004) and for Minnesota risk (0.72, p=0.005). In conclusion, MAGIC biomarker probabilities generated after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD predict long term outcomes in steroid resistant GVHD better than clinical criteria and should prove useful in developing better treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Hematology.

  19. Safety aspects of long term operation of water moderated reactors. Recommendations on the scope and content of programmes for safe long term operation. Final report of the extrabudgetary programme on safety aspects long term operation of water moderated reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-07-01

    During the last two decades, the number of IAEA Member States giving high priority to continuing the operation of nuclear power plants beyond the time frame originally anticipated is increasing. This is related to the age of nuclear power plants connected to the grid worldwide. The IAEA started to develop guidance on the safety aspects of ageing management in the 1990s. Recognizing the development in a number of its Member States, the IAEA initiated this Extrabudgetary Programme on Safety Aspects of Long Term Operation of Water Moderated Reactors in 2003. The objective of the Programme was to establish recommendations on the scope and content of activities to ensure safe long term operation of water moderated reactors. The term long term operation is used to accommodate various approaches in Member States and is defined as operation beyond an initial time frame set forth in design, standards, licence, and/or regulations, that is justified by safety assessment, considering life limiting processes and features for systems, structures and components. The scope of the Programme included general long term operation framework, mechanical components and materials, electrical components and instrumentation and control, and structural components and structures. The scope of the Programme was limited to physical structures of the NPPs. Four working groups addressed the above indicated technical areas. The Programme steering committee provided coordination and guidance and served as a forum for the exchange of information. The Programme implementation relied on voluntary in kind and financial contributions from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the USA as well as in kind contributions from Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, the Russian Federation, Spain, the Ukraine, and the European Commission. This report summarizes the main results, conclusions and recommendations of this Programme and provides in the Appendices I-IV detailed

  20. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

    2015-09-01

    It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

  1. Mixer pump long term operations plan for Tank 241-SY-101 mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irwin, J.J.

    1994-01-01

    This document provides the general Operations Plan for performance of the mixer pump long term operations for Tank 241-SY-101 mitigation of gas retention and periodic release in Tank 101-SY. This operations plan will utilize a 112 kW (150 hp) mixing pump to agitate/suspend the particulates in the tank

  2. Applicability of short-term accelerated biofouling studies to predict long-term biofouling accumulation in reverse osmosis membrane systems

    KAUST Repository

    Sanawar, Huma

    2018-02-02

    Biofouling studies addressing biofouling control are mostly executed in short-term studies. It is unclear whether data collected from these experiments are representative for long-term biofouling as occurring in full-scale membrane systems. This study investigated whether short-term biofouling studies accelerated by biodegradable nutrient dosage to feed water were predictive for long-term biofouling development without nutrient dosage. Since the presence of a feed spacer has an strong effect on the degree of biofouling, this study employed six geometrically different feed spacers. Membrane fouling simulators (MFSs) were operated with the same (i) membrane, (ii) feed flow and (iii) feed water, but with feed spacers varying in geometry. For the short-term experiment, biofilm formation was enhanced by nutrient dosage to the MFS feed water, whereas no nutrient dosage was applied in the long-term experiment. Pressure drop development was monitored to characterize the extent of biofouling, while the accumulated viable biomass content at the end of the experimental run was quantified by adenosine triphosphate (ATP) measurements. Impact of feed spacer geometry on biofouling was compared for the short-term and long-term biofouling study. The results of the study revealed that the feed spacers exhibited the same biofouling behavior for (i) the short-term (9-d) study with nutrient dosage and (ii) the long-term (96-d) study without nutrient dosage. For the six different feed spacers, the accumulated viable biomass content (pg ATP.cm) was roughly the same, but the biofouling impact in terms of pressure drop increase in time was significantly different. The biofouling impact ranking of the six feed spacers was the same for the short-term and long-term biofouling studies. Therefore, it can be concluded that short-term accelerated biofouling studies in MFSs are a representative and suitable approach for the prediction of biofouling in membrane filtration systems after long-term

  3. After laparoscopic Heller myotomy, do emergency department visits or readmissions predict poor long-term outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Sharona; Villadolid, Desiree; Al-Saadi, Sam; Boyle, Robert; Cowgill, Sarah M; Rosemurgy, Alexander

    2008-12-01

    Laparoscopic Heller myotomy is a first-line treatment for achalasia. To improve outcomes after myotomy and to determine if poor early results predict later outcomes, emergency department (ED) visits and readmissions within 60 days following laparoscopic Heller myotomy were studied. Since 1992, 352 patients have undergone laparoscopic Heller myotomy and are followed through a prospectively maintained registry. Causes of ED visits and readmissions within 60 days after myotomy were determined. Patients scored their symptoms of achalasia before myotomy and at last follow-up; scores were compared to determine if the reasons leading to ED visits and/or readmissions impacted long-term outcome after myotomy. Fourteen (4%) patients had ED visits, and 18 (5%) patients had readmissions within 60 days following myotomy. Sixty-four percent of ED visits were for dysphagia/vomiting and 36% were for abdominal/chest pain, while 37% of readmissions were for dysphagia/vomiting. Pneumonia was complicated by empyema in four patients, all without leaks; two patients expired. Despite ED visits/readmissions, achalasia symptom (e.g., dysphagia, regurgitation, choking, heartburn, and chest pain) frequency and severity scores improved after myotomy (p Heller myotomy. ED visits were generally due to complaints related to achalasia or edema after myotomy, while readmissions were generally related to complications of operative intervention or chronic ill health. Despite ED visits or readmissions early after myotomy, symptoms of achalasia are well palliated by myotomy long-term.

  4. Remaining uncertainties in predicting long-term performance of nuclear waste glass from experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grambow, B.

    1994-01-01

    The current knowledge on the glass dissolution mechanism and the representation of glass dissolution concepts within overall repository performance assessment models are briefly summarized and uncertainties related to mechanism, radionuclide chemistry and parameters are discussed. Understanding of the major glass dissolution processes has been significantly increased in recent years. Long-term glass stability is related to the long-term maintenance of silica saturated conditions. The behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass has not been sufficiently and results do no yet allow meaningful predictions. Conserving long-term predictions of glass matrix dissolution as upper limit for radionuclide release can be made with sufficient confidence, however these estimations generally result in a situation where the barrier function of the glass is masked by the efficiency of the geologic barrier. Realistic long-term predictions may show that the borosilicate waste glass contributes to overall repository safety to a much larger extent than indicated by overconservatism. Today realistic predictions remain highly uncertain and much more research work is necessary. In particular, the long-term rate under silica saturated conditions needs to be understood and the behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass deserves more systematic investigations

  5. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  6. Long-term results of the corridor operation for atrial fibrillation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hemel, N. M.; Defauw, J. J.; Kingma, J. H.; Jaarsma, W.; Vermeulen, F. E.; de Bakker, J. M.; Guiraudon, G. M.

    1994-01-01

    To investigate the long-term results of the corridor operation in the treatment of symptomatic atrial fibrillation refractory to drug treatment. The corridor operation is designed to isolate from the left and right atrium a conduit of atrial tissue connecting the sinus node area with the

  7. The National Long Term Care Demonstration: operational issues encountered in developing the research design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carcagno, G J; Kemper, P

    1983-01-01

    This paper describes the design of the National Long Term Care Demonstration and its evaluation and discusses a number of operational issues encountered in the design process: simultaneous design of research and operations, identification of the target population, randomization, collection of comparable data, development of an assessment instrument, potential changes in existing programs, and termination planning.

  8. Statement on safety requirements concerning the long-term operation of the Muehleberg nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-12-01

    This report published by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI investigates the safety requirements with respect to the long-term operation of the Muehleberg nuclear power station in Switzerland. Relevant international requirements and Swiss legal stipulations concerning the long-term operation of the power station are stated. The management of aging processes is looked at. The regular verification of the integrity of various plant components such as containments, piping, steam generation system, etc. is looked at in detail. The state-of-the-art concerning deterministic accident analyses and refitting technology are discussed, as are automated safety systems. The applicable laws, decrees and guidelines are listed in appendices

  9. Bentall operation in 375 patients: long-term results and predictors of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varrica, Alessandro; Satriano, Angela; de Vincentiis, Carlo; Biondi, Andrea; Trimarchi, Santi; Ranucci, Marco; Menicanti, Lorenzo; Frigiola, Alessandro

    2014-01-01

    The Bentall operation is a 40-year-old standardized procedure for treating aortic valve diseases and aneurysms involving the aortic root. The study aim was to analyze the results and predictors of long-term outcome after the Bentall procedure for aortic root diseases. Between January 1990 and December 2007, a total of 375 patients (296 males, 79 females) underwent the Bentall operation at the authors' institution. Bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) was present in 91 patients, and Marfan syndrome in 13. Thirty-six patients were treated as emergencies, and 30 for acute dissection. A concomitant surgical procedure was performed in 78 patients. The operative procedure included both classic Bentall and button techniques. Follow up data were obtained from hospital and office records and from telephone contacts. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis were performed to investigate the predictors of long-term outcome. The overall in-hospital mortality was 4.5%, and after elective operations was 2.3%. A 20-year long-term follow up included 32 late deaths, of which 14 were cardiac-related. Freedom from late all-cause mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years was 97.1%, 81.9%, and 53.9%, respectively. At univariate analysis, long-term mortality was associated with age, diabetes, BAV, NYHA class III/IV, emergency treatment, cardiopulmonary bypass time, and coronary artery bypass grafting. Independent predictors of long-term mortality were age (OR 1.16; CI: 1.08-1.23), emergency surgery (OR 28; CI: 4-192) and BAV (OR 3; CI: 1.3-6.9). The Bentall procedure is a safe and durable operation, with a very good early and long-term results and a low rate of reoperation. In the present series, age, BAV and emergency surgery were important independent predictors of mortality.

  10. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qijie

    2015-08-01

    The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

  11. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  12. Budgeting for International Projects: In-Country Business Operations and Long-Term Residential Assignments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richey, John B.

    1994-01-01

    A discussion of international sponsored research program administration looks at budgeting, costs, and procedures for both projects with in-country business operations in developing nations and projects with long-term residential assignments. It is intended for university administrators providing new services to faculty working on international…

  13. The Long-Term Operating Performance of European Mergers and Acquisitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martynova, M.; Oosting, S.; Renneboog, L.D.R.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract: We investigate the long-term profitability of corporate takeovers of which both the acquiring and target companies are from Continental Europe or the UK. We employ four different measures of operating performance that allow us to overcome a number of measurement limitations of the previous

  14. The Long-Term Operating Performance of European Mergers and Acquisitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martynova, M.; Oosting, S.; Renneboog, L.D.R.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the long-term profitability of corporate takeovers of which both the acquiring and target companies are from Continental Europe or the UK.We employ four different measures of operating performance that allow us to overcome a number of measurement limitations of the previous

  15. Role of Proteasome-Dependent Protein Degradation in Long-Term Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Lisa C.; Gardner, Jacob S.; Gandour, Catherine E.; Krishnan, Harini C.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated the in vivo role of protein degradation during intermediate (ITM) and long-term memory (LTM) in "Aplysia" using an operant learning paradigm. The proteasome inhibitor MG-132 inhibited the induction and molecular consolidation of LTM with no effect on ITM. Remarkably, maintenance of steady-state protein levels through…

  16. PKG-Mediated MAPK Signaling Is Necessary for Long-Term Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Maximilian; Green, Charity L.; Eskin, Arnold; Lyons, Lisa C.

    2011-01-01

    Signaling pathways necessary for memory formation, such as the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway, appear highly conserved across species and paradigms. Learning that food is inedible (LFI) represents a robust form of associative, operant learning that induces short- (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) in "Aplysia." We investigated the…

  17. Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruyt, A.; Lemaigre, V.; Salhi, B.; van Gucht, D.; Tibboel, H.; van Bockstaele, B.; de Houwer, J.; van Meerbeeck, J.; Nackaerts, K.

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. Objectives: The main objective of

  18. Serum YKL-40 predicts long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harutyunyan, Marina; Gøtze, Jens P; Winkel, Per

    2013-01-01

    We investigated whether the inflammatory biomarker YKL-40 could improve the long-term prediction of death made by common risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal-pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD)....

  19. Early Posttransplant Tryptophan Metabolism Predicts Long-term Outcome of Human Kidney Transplantation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vavrincova-Yaghi, Diana; Seelen, Marc A.; Kema, Ido P.; Deelman, Leo E.; Heuvel, van den Marius; Breukelman, Henk; Van den Eynde, Benoit J.; Henning, Rob H.; van Goor, Harry; Sandovici, Maria

    Background. Chronic transplant dysfunction (CTD) is the leading cause of long-term loss of the renal allograft. So far, no single test is available to reliably predict the risk for CTD. Monitoring of tryptophan (trp) metabolism through indoleamine 2.3-dioxygenase (IDO) has been previously proposed

  20. Prediction method of long-term reliability in improving residual stresses by means of surface finishing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sera, Takehiko; Hirano, Shinro; Chigusa, Naoki; Okano, Shigetaka; Saida, Kazuyoshi; Mochizuki, Masahito; Nishimoto, Kazutoshi

    2012-01-01

    Surface finishing methods, such as Water Jet Peening (WJP), have been applied to welds in some major components of nuclear power plants as a counter measure to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC). In addition, the methods of surface finishing (buffing treatment) is being standardized, and thus the buffing treatment has been also recognized as the well-established method of improving stress. On the other hand, the long-term stability of peening techniques has been confirmed by accelerated test. However, the effectiveness of stress improvement by surface treatment is limited to thin layers and the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal beneath the surface is not strictly taken into account for long-term stability. This paper, therefore, describes the accelerated tests, which confirmed that the long-term stability of the layer subjected to buffing treatment was equal to that subjected to WJP. The long-term reliability of very thin stress improved layer was also confirmed through a trial evaluation by thermal elastic-plastic creep analysis, even if the effect of complicated residual stress distribution in the weld metal was excessively taken into account. Considering the above findings, an approach is proposed for constructing the prediction method of the long-term reliability of stress improvement by surface finishing. (author)

  1. Unsaturated consolidation theory for the prediction of long-term municipal solid waste landfill settlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chia-Nan; Chen, Rong-Her; Chen, Kuo-Sheng

    2006-02-01

    The understanding of long-term landfill settlement is important for landfill design and rehabilitation. However, suitable models that can consider both the mechanical and biodecomposition mechanisms in predicting the long-term landfill settlement are generally not available. In this paper, a model based on unsaturated consolidation theory and considering the biodegradation process is introduced to simulate the landfill settlement behaviour. The details of problem formulations and the derivation of the solution for the formulated differential equation of gas pressure are presented. A step-by-step analytical procedure employing this approach for estimating settlement is proposed. The proposed model can generally model the typical features of short-term and long-term behaviour. The proposed model also yields results that are comparable with the field measurements.

  2. Prediction of long term stability for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Koide, Hitoshi; Kono, Itoshi

    1998-01-01

    On geological disposal of radioactive wastes, study on prediction of diastrophism has been paid many attentions, and then long term future prediction ranging from some thousands to some tends thousands years may be necessary for some target nuclides. As there are various methods in the future prediction, it is essential to use a computational dynamic procedure to conduct a quantitative prediction. However, it causes an obstacle to advancement of the prediction method that informations on deep underground have a lot of uncertain elements because of their few and indirect data. In this paper, a long term prediction procedure of diastrophism relating to geological disposal of radioactive wastes with low level but isolation terms required to some thousands years was investigated and each one example was shown on flow of the investigation and its modeling method by using the finite element method. It seems to be a key to upgrade accuracy of future diastrophism prediction how an earth fault can be analyzed. And, as the diastrophism is a long term and complex phenomenon and its prediction has many uncertain elements, it is important to judge comprehensively results of its numerical analysis geologically and on rock engineering. (G.K.)

  3. Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett W Pinsky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to accurately predict a population′s long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population′s long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS projections were calculated and com-pared with the population′s actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1 fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A and (2 uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B. Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted sur-vival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%. Excellent predictability (41.3% can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population′s long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

  4. Long-term Creep Life Prediction for Type 316LN Stainless Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Ryu, Woo Seog; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bok

    2007-01-01

    Since Sodium Fast Cooled Reactor (SFR) components are designed to be use for more than 30 years at a high temperature of 550 .deg. C, one of the most important properties of these components is the long term creep behavior. To accurately predict the long-term creep life of the components, it is essential to achieve reliable long-term test data beyond their design life. But, it is difficult to actually obtain long duration data because it is time-consuming work. So far, a variety of time-temperature parameters (TTPs) have been developed to predict a long-term creep life from shorter-time tests at higher temperatures. Among them, the Larson-Miller, the Orr-Sherby-Dorn, the Manson-Harferd and the Manson-Succop parameters have been typically used. None of these parameters has an overwhelming preference, and they have certain inherent restrictions imposed on their data in the application of the TTPs parameters. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) proposed by Manson and Ensign has a greater flexibility for a creep rupture analysis. Thus, the MCM will be useful as another approach. Until now, the applicability of the MCM has not been investigated for type 316LN SS because of insufficient creep data. In this paper, the MCM was applied to predict a long-term creep life of type 316LN stainless steel (SS). Lots of creep rupture data was collected through literature surveys and the experimental data of KAERI. Using the short-term experimental data for under 2,000 hours, a longer-time rupture above 105 hours was predicted by the MCM at temperatures from 550 .deg. C to 800 .deg. C

  5. Passivation of gas microstrip detectors and stability of long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, M.; Armitage, J.; Chapman, G.; Dixit, M.; Dubeau, J.; Faszer, W.; Hamel, L.A.; Oakham, G.

    1994-01-01

    We have studied the long-term operation of gas microstrip detectors which have been passivated with a layer of nickel oxide. We have used as the active gas CF 4 /isobutane (80 : 20) and three different types of substrates: Tedlar, glass and Upilex. In all three cases we found that the detectors are stable after passivation and can operate for a month without changes in gain at rates of MHz. The total accumulated charge was approximately 100 mC. ((orig.))

  6. Development of Long-term Cooling Operation Strategy with H-SIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeon, In Seop; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    In the current nuclear power plants (NPPs), most of the critical safety functions are provided by many active safety systems. Long-term cooling of core is an ultimate goal of all mitigation actions for plant safety and feed and bleed (F and B) operation strategy is one of long-term cooling strategies in conventional pressurized water reactor (PWR). The important point of F and B operation is that, in conventional mitigation strategy, injection for feed operation is performed by only high pressure injection (HPSI) pump. Low pressure injection (LPSI) pump such as shut down cooling pump (SCP) cannot be used for F and B operation. Thus, when F and B operation is needed, if high-pressure injection pump fails, core should be damaged. In this study, F and B operation strategy with LPSI and H-SIT is developed. This is a new concept for the long-term cooling operation. If this strategy is applied, low pressure injection pump can be successfully used for F and B operation thus operator has the additional mitigation way. As this strategy make plant safe even though HPSI and PAFS are both failed, it can effectively enhance the plant safety. For this strategy two RCGVSs and two POSRVs are needed as a depressurization system for bleed operation and only one LPSI is enough for feed operation. H-SIT operation is also needed to make up core inventory during bleed operation. For this operation, four H-SITs have to be used to make up core safely. Based on the risk analysis using PSA method, if this strategy is applied, core damage frequency is 1.868e-6 which declined 7 percent from original model.

  7. Predicting Discharge to Institutional Long-Term Care After Stroke: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Jennifer K; Ferguson, Eilidh E C; Barugh, Amanda J; Walesby, Katherine E; MacLullich, Alasdair M J; Shenkin, Susan D; Quinn, Terry J

    2018-01-01

    Stroke is a leading cause of disability worldwide, and a significant proportion of stroke survivors require long-term institutional care. Understanding who cannot be discharged home is important for health and social care planning. Our aim was to establish predictive factors for discharge to institutional care after hospitalization for stroke. We registered and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42015023497) of observational studies. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL Plus to February 2017. Quantitative synthesis was performed where data allowed. Acute and rehabilitation hospitals. Adults hospitalized for stroke who were newly admitted directly to long-term institutional care at the time of hospital discharge. Factors associated with new institutionalization. From 10,420 records, we included 18 studies (n = 32,139 participants). The studies were heterogeneous and conducted in Europe, North America, and East Asia. Eight studies were at high risk of selection bias. The proportion of those surviving to discharge who were newly discharged to long-term care varied from 7% to 39% (median 17%, interquartile range 12%), and the model of care received in the long-term care setting was not defined. Older age and greater stroke severity had a consistently positive association with the need for long-term care admission. Individuals who had a severe stroke were 26 times as likely to be admitted to long-term care than those who had a minor stroke. Individuals aged 65 and older had a risk of stroke that was three times as great as that of younger individuals. Potentially modifiable factors were rarely examined. Age and stroke severity are important predictors of institutional long-term care admission directly from the hospital after an acute stroke. Potentially modifiable factors should be the target of future research. Stroke outcome studies should report discharge destination, defining the model of care provided in the long-term care setting.

  8. Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruyt, Adriaan; Lemaigre, Valentine; Salhi, Bihiyga; Van Gucht, Dinska; Tibboel, Helen; Van Bockstaele, Bram; De Houwer, Jan; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Nackaerts, Kristiaan

    2015-07-01

    It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues and long-term relapse in abstaining smokers. Implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues were assessed by means of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and the evaluative priming task (EPT). Both measures were completed by a group of smokers who volunteered to quit smoking (patient group) and a group of nonsmokers (control group). Participants in the patient group completed these measures twice: once prior to smoking cessation and once after smoking cessation. Relapse was assessed by means of short telephone survey, 6 months after completion of the second test session. EPT scores obtained prior to smoking cessation were related to long-term relapse and correlated with self-reported nicotine dependence as well as daily cigarette consumption. In contrast, none of the behavioral outcome measures were found to correlate with the IAT scores. These findings corroborate the idea that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues are critically involved in long-term relapse. A potential explanation for the divergent findings obtained with the IAT and EPT is provided.

  9. Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

    2017-09-27

    Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekonomou, L.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper artificial neural networks (ANN) are addressed in order the Greek long-term energy consumption to be predicted. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) has been used for this purpose by testing several possible architectures in order to be selected the one with the best generalizing ability. Actual recorded input and output data that influence long-term energy consumption were used in the training, validation and testing process. The developed ANN model is used for the prediction of 2005-2008, 2010, 2012 and 2015 Greek energy consumption. The produced ANN results for years 2005-2008 were compared with the results produced by a linear regression method, a support vector machine method and with real energy consumption records showing a great accuracy. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, since accurate predictions of energy consumption affect the capital investment, the environmental quality, the revenue analysis, the market research management, while conserve at the same time the supply security. Furthermore it constitutes an accurate tool for the Greek long-term energy consumption prediction problem, which up today has not been faced effectively.

  11. Long-Term Prediction of Severe Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Marie Moth; Færch, Louise; Thorsteinsson, Birger

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prediction of risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH) in patients with type 1 diabetes is important to prevent future episodes, but it is unknown if it is possible to predict the long-term risk of SH. The aim of the study is to assess if long-term prediction of SH is possible in type 1...... diabetes. METHODS: A follow-up study was performed with 98 patients with type 1 diabetes. At baseline and at follow-up, the patients filled in a questionnaire about diabetes history and complications, number of SH in the preceding year and state of awareness, and HbA1c and C-peptide levels were measured......-up. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term prediction of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes was not possible, although baseline hypoglycemia unawareness tended to remain a predictor for risk of SH at follow-up. Therefore, it is important repeatedly to assess the different risk factors of SH to determine the actual risk....

  12. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  13. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  14. Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

    2015-03-01

    China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

  15. OECD/NEA Study on the Economics of Long Term Operation of NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lokhov, Alexey; Cameron, Ron

    2012-01-01

    The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) established the Ad Hoc expert group on the Economics of Long-term Operation (LTO) of Nuclear Power Plants. The primary aim of this group is to collect and analyse technical and economic data on the upgrade and lifetime extension experience in OECD countries, and to assess the likely applications for future extensions. This paper describes the key elements of the methodology of economic assessment of LTO and initial findings for selected NEA member countries. (author)

  16. A prediction method for long-term behavior of prestressed concrete containment vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozaki, M.; Abe, T.; Watanabe, Y.; Kato, A.; Yamaguchi, T.; Yamamoto, M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents results of studies on the long-term behavior of PCCVs at Taruga Unit No 2 and Ohi Unit No 3/4 power stations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the measured strain in the concrete and reduction force in the tendons, and to establish the prediction methods for long-term PCCVs behavior. Comparing the measured strains with those calculated due to creep and shrinkage of the concrete, those in contrast were investigated. Furthermore, the reduced tendon forces are calculated considering losses in elasticity, relaxation, creep and shrinkage. The measured reduction in the tendon forces is compared with the calculated. Considering changes in temperature and humidity, the measured strains and tendon forces were in good agreement with those calculated. From the above results, it was confirmed that the residual pre stresses in the PCCVs maintain the predicted values at the design stage, and that the prediction method of long-term behaviors has sufficient reliability. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

  17. The long-term effects of space weather on satellite operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Welling

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Integrated lifetime radiation damage may cause spacecraft to become more susceptible to operational anomalies by changing material characteristics of electronic components. This study demonstrates and quantifies the impact of these effects by examining the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC satellite anomaly database. Energetic particle data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES is used to construct the total lifetime particle exposure a satellite has received at the epoch of an anomaly. These values are compared to the satellite's chronological age and the average exposure per year (calculated over two solar cycles. The results show that many anomalies occur on satellites that have received a total lifetime high-energy particle exposure that is disproportionate to their age. In particular, 10.8% of all events occurred on satellites that received over two times more 20 to 40 MeV proton lifetime particle exposure than predicted using an average annual mean. This number inflates to 35.2% for 40 to 80 MeV protons and 33.7% for ≥2 MeV electrons. Overall, 73.5% of all anomalies occurred on a spacecraft that had experienced greater than two times the expected particle exposure for one of the eight particle populations used in this study. Simplistically, this means that the long term radiation background exposure matters, and that if the background radiation is elevated during the satellite's lifetime, the satellite is likely to experience more anomalies than satellites that have not been exposed to the elevated environment.

  18. Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

  19. Safety aspects in the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel in long term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nodarim, Claudir J.; Silva, Viviane B. da; Fontes, Gladson S. [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Saldanha, Pedro L.C., E-mail: claudirnodari@gmail.com, E-mail: vivisborges@gmail.com, E-mail: gsfontes@hotmail.com, E-mail: Saldanha@cnen.gov.br [Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of the present paper is to discuss the safety assessment of the Dry Storage Unit (DSU), taking into account the long term operation and the operational experience already evidenced in similar facilities. In this sense, the RIDM (Risk-Informed Decision-Making) concept will be adopted for the regulatory decision-making process. Potential technical issues associated with the aging of materials from the dry storage unit will be considered. The work will be done using the rules and requirements of 10 CFR Part 72 and the U.S. NRC (United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission) regulatory guides. (author)

  20. Young patients with colorectal cancer have poor survival in the first twenty months after operation and predictable survival in the medium and long-term: Analysis of survival and prognostic markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wickramarachchi RE

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives This study compares clinico-pathological features in young (50 years with colorectal cancer, survival in the young and the influence of pre-operative clinical and histological factors on survival. Materials and methods A twelve year prospective database of colorectal cancer was analysed. Fifty-three young patients were compared with forty seven consecutive older patients over fifty years old. An analysis of survival was undertaken in young patients using Kaplan Meier graphs, non parametric methods, Cox's Proportional Hazard Ratios and Weibull Hazard models. Results Young patients comprised 13.4 percent of 397 with colorectal cancer. Duration of symptoms and presentation in the young was similar to older patients (median, range; young patients; 6 months, 2 weeks to 2 years, older patients; 4 months, 4 weeks to 3 years, p > 0.05. In both groups, the majority presented without bowel obstruction (young - 81%, older - 94%. Cancer proximal to the splenic flexure was present more in young than in older patients. Synchronous cancers were found exclusively in the young. Mucinous tumours were seen in 16% of young and 4% of older patients (p Conclusion If patients, who are less than 40 years old with colorectal cancer, survive twenty months after operation, the prognosis improves and their survival becomes predictable.

  1. A computational environment for long-term multi-feature and multi-algorithm seizure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, C A; Direito, B; Costa, R P; Valderrama, M; Feldwisch-Drentrup, H; Nikolopoulos, S; Le Van Quyen, M; Schelter, B; Dourado, A

    2010-01-01

    The daily life of epilepsy patients is constrained by the possibility of occurrence of seizures. Until now, seizures cannot be predicted with sufficient sensitivity and specificity. Most of the seizure prediction studies have been focused on a small number of patients, and frequently assuming unrealistic hypothesis. This paper adopts the view that for an appropriate development of reliable predictors one should consider long-term recordings and several features and algorithms integrated in one software tool. A computational environment, based on Matlab (®), is presented, aiming to be an innovative tool for seizure prediction. It results from the need of a powerful and flexible tool for long-term EEG/ECG analysis by multiple features and algorithms. After being extracted, features can be subjected to several reduction and selection methods, and then used for prediction. The predictions can be conducted based on optimized thresholds or by applying computational intelligence methods. One important aspect is the integrated evaluation of the seizure prediction characteristic of the developed predictors.

  2. Long-term functional outcome after type A3 spinal fractures : operative versus non-operative treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Post, Richard B.; van der Sluis, Corry K.; Leferink, Vincent J. M.; ten Duis, Henk-Jan

    The authors retrospectively studied, by questionnaires, the long-term (5 years) functional outcome after operative (posterior instrumentation : 38 cases) and non-operative treatment (25 cases) for type A3 spinal fractures (Comprehensive Classification) without neurological deficit. A possible bias

  3. Scientific basis for long-term prediction of waste-form performance under repository conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1982-10-01

    This paper presents an overview of the fundamental principles involved in predicting long-term performance of waste forms by the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable approach. Repository conditions which make up the waste-form environment, the aging of the waste form, the important radionuclides in the waste form, the chemistry of repository fluids, and multicomponent interactions testing were considered in order to describe these principles. The need for confidence limits on the prediction of waste-form performance and ways of achieving a definition of the confidence limits are discussed

  4. Prediction of long-term crustal movement for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takeshi; Morikawa, Seiji; Tabei, Kazuto; Koide, Hitoshi; Tashiro, Toshiharu

    2000-01-01

    Long-term stability of the geological environment is essential for the safe geological disposal of radioactive waste, for which it is necessary to predict the crustal movement during an assessment period. As a case study, a numerical analysis method for the prediction of crustal movement in Japan is proposed. A three-dimensional elastic analysis by FEM for the geological block structure of the Kinki region and the Awaji-Rokko area is presented. Stability analysis for a disposal cavern is also investigated. (author)

  5. The economics of long-term operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lokhov, Alexey; Huerta, Alejandro; Dufresne, Luc; Giraud, Anne; Osouf, Nicolas

    2012-01-01

    Refurbishment and long-term operation (LTO) of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) today are crucial to the competitiveness of the nuclear industry in OECD countries as existing nuclear power plants produce base-load power at a reliable cost. A number of nuclear power plants, most notably 73 units in the United States (up to 2012), have been granted lifetime extensions of up to 60 years, a development that is being keenly watched in other OECD countries. In many of these (e.g. France, Switzerland), there is no legal end to the operating licence, but continued operation is based on the outcomes of periodic safety reviews. This study analyses technical and economic data on the upgrade and lifetime extension experience in OECD countries. A multi-criteria assessment methodology is used considering various factors and parameters reflecting current and future financial conditions of operation, political and regulatory risks, the state of the plants' equipment and the general role of nuclear power in the country's energy policy. The report shows that long-term operation of nuclear power plants has significant economic advantages for most utilities envisaging LTO programmes. In most cases, the continued operation of NPPs for at least ten more years is profitable even taking into account the additional costs of post-Fukushima modifications, and remains cost-effective compared to alternative replacement sources

  6. Long term operation of nuclear power plants in the U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, G.G.

    2015-01-01

    This series of slides shows that safety, performance, cost, environmental and public opinion factors are favorable for long term operation of U.S. nuclear power plants. In the U.S. 1 reactor has an operating life ranging between 10 and 19 years, 37 reactors have an operating life ranging between 20 and 29 years, 42 reactors between 30 and 39 years and 20 reactors have an operating life over 40 years. The original license term is 40 years and it can be extended by 20 years for each renewal. The application for renewal must be at least 5 years before expiration of the current license. 3 main areas are reviewed by NRC to get the renewal: safety, environmental and adjudicatory. A slide describes the NRC license renewal process and another slide lists the regulatory and industry guidance documents based on lessons learned and operating experience. Research and development efforts around materials aging and safety margin characterization by EPRI, DOE, NRC and industry groups are essential to support and maintain the option of long term operation of nuclear reactors. (A.C.)

  7. NPP long term operation in Spain - First application for license renewal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francia, L.; Gorrochategui, I.; Marcos, R.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In the operation of the Spanish nuclear power plants (NPP), safety is always the prime consideration. Plant Life Management Programmes have been set up with the strategic objective to operate the NPPs as long as they are considered safe and reliable. The safety of each NPP is reviewed by the Spanish nuclear regulatory authority (CSN) under a continuous process. In addition, experience is gained from operating the plants and from exchanges with operators of similar units. Current Spanish regulatory framework for renewing NPP operating licenses requires performing a Periodic Safety Review (PSR) to be performed every 10 years and submitted when applying for a new renewal of the NPP operating license. A few years ago, CSN issued a document regarding the licensing requirements that nuclear power plants should meet in order to be granted with an operating license for long term operation (i.e, operation beyond the original plant design life, typically 40 years). Besides the traditional PSR requirements, specific requirements regarding to long term operation (LTO) include: - An Aging Management and Evaluation Program, including the identification and evaluation of Time Limited Aging Analysis (TLAA). - An updated Radiological Impact Study. - A review and assessment of regulation/standard applicability. Garona NPP (GE, BWR/3 design) operated by Spanish utility Nuclenor from 1971 has a current operating license up to 2009. A decision was made to apply for a new operating license, being Garona plant the first one in Spain to face with the new long term operation requirements. The paper will provide an overview of the methodology used in Spain to address and perform the required analyses to support the LTO application for the operating license renewal. In particular, focus will be paid on the project developed in Garona (2002-2006) whose result has been the first Spanish application for License Renewal for LTO. Also it will be reported the ongoing work necessary to

  8. A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

  9. Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

  10. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

  11. Uncovering Camouflage: Amygdala Activation Predicts Long-Term Memory of Induced Perceptual Insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludmer, Rachel; Dudai, Yadin; Rubin, Nava

    2012-01-01

    What brain mechanisms underlie learning of new knowledge from single events? We studied encoding in long-term memory of a unique type of one-shot experience, induced perceptual insight. While undergoing an fMRI brain scan, participants viewed degraded images of real-world pictures where the underlying objects were hard to recognize (‘camouflage’), followed by brief exposures to the original images (‘solution’), which led to induced insight (“Aha!”). A week later, participants’ memory was tested; a solution image was classified as ‘remembered’ if detailed perceptual knowledge was elicited from the camouflage image alone. During encoding, subsequently remembered images enjoyed higher activity in mid-level visual cortex and medial frontal cortex, but most pronouncedly in the amygdala, whose activity could be used to predict which solutions will remain in long-term memory. Our findings extend the known roles of amygdala in memory to include promoting of long-term memory of the sudden reorganization of internal representations. PMID:21382558

  12. Predicting long-term moisture contents of earthen covers at uranium mill tailings sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gee, G.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Rogers, V.C.

    1984-09-01

    The three methods for long-term moisture prediction covered in this report are: estimates from water retention (permanent wilting point) data, correlation with climate and soil type, and detailed model simulation. The test results have shown: soils vary greatly in residual moisture. Expected long-term moisture saturation ratios (based on generalized soil characteristics) range from 0.2 to 0.8 for soils ranging in texture from sand to clay, respectively. These values hold for noncompacted field soils. Measured radon diffusion coefficients for soils at 15-bar water contents ranged from 5.0E-2 cm 2 /s to 5.0E-3 cm 2 /s for sands and clays, respectively, at typical field densities. In contrast, fine-textured pit-run earthen materials, subjected to optimum compaction (>85% Proctor density) and dried to the 15-bar water content, ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 moisture saturation. Compacted pit-run soils at these moisture contents exhibited radon diffusion coefficients as low as 3.0E-4 cm 2 /s. The residual moisture saturation for cover soils is not known since no engineered barrier has been in place for more than a few years. A comparison of methods for predicting moisture saturation indicates that model simulations are useful for predicting effects of climatic changes on residual soil moisture, but that long-term moisture also can be predicted with some degree of confidence using generalized soil properties or empirical correlations based both on soils and climatic information. The optimal soil cover design will likely include more than one layer of soil. A two-layer system using a thick (1-m minimum) plant root zone of uncompacted soil placed over a moistened, tightly compacted fine-textured soil is recommended. This design concept has been tested successfully at the Grand Junction, Colorado, tailings piles

  13. Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

    Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

  14. Long-term behavior of nuclear glass: the r(t) operational model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribet, I.; Gin, S.; Minet, Y.; Vernaz, E.; Chaix, P.; Do Quang, R.

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the long-term behavior of vitrified waste packages requires the development of models incorporating knowledge of the aqueous alteration mechanisms of nuclear glass. The r(t) model allows for the formation of a protective gel layer during leaching, and is thus able to account for the major drops in the glass alteration rate that are observed experimentally. This article describes the model hypotheses, the methodology implemented to determine its three internal parameters, and the results obtained from about fifty leaching experiments performed under various conditions. The orders of magnitude of the internal parameter values are indicated according to the alteration conditions. (author)

  15. Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO peer review service and its results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krivanek, Robert, E-mail: r.krivanek@iaea.org

    2014-12-15

    Highlights: • SALTO peer review service is designed for reviewing of ageing management and NPPs’ preparedness LTO. • It has been established as an effective tool to review the compliance with IAEA safety standards. • The important issues for safe LTO are being identified by SALTO missions. • Analysis of those issues is provided in the paper. • This peer review service is strongly recommended for NPPs prior to entering LTO period. - Abstract: This paper presents main IAEA activities for safe long term operation (LTO) which includes establishment of IAEA Safety Standards and other LTO related documents, fostering information exchange and establishing databases and provision of SALTO (Safety Aspects of Long Term Operation) peer review service. This paper provides insights into IAEA SALTO peer review service objectives, scope and methodology. The SALTO peer review service was designed to assist nuclear power plant (NPP) operators in adopting a proper approach to LTO of their plants and in implementing complete and appropriate activities to ensure that plant safety will be maintained during the LTO period. The SALTO peer review service can also support regulators in establishing or improving regulatory and licensing strategies for LTO of NPPs. Issues derived from 19 SALTO missions and 2 LTO modules of OSART (Operational Safety Review Team) missions conducted during the period of 2005 to March 2014 are also analyzed in this paper.

  16. Outages 1999 and 2000, investments in safety and long-term operation of NE Krsko

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sirola, P.; Krajnc, J.; Androjna, F.

    1999-01-01

    Plant outage is an important part of nuclear power plant operation. During that time the conditions are established for the performance of specific activities, such as refueling, tests, inspections, preventive and corrective maintenance and modifications, that are intended to confirm proper condition and availability of safety and other important components and improve overall plant safety and reliability. It is well know that in Nuclear Power Plant Krsko (Nuklearna elektrarna Krsko NEK) during Outage 2000 new Steam Generators (SGs) will be placed in service, while Outage '99 was used for preparatory works. But the importance of those two outages is even greater, because they are implementing a broad number of improvements and establishing a basis for long-term plant operation. Outage '99 required very detailed planning to assure a good control over the outage activities and operational plant systems necessary for safe shutdown. Numerous activities took place in a relatively narrow space in the Reactor Building. Some of these activities will have a big significance for the future. The article treats the status update and summarizes the specifics and importance of the mentioned activities to long-term plant safe and reliable operation.(author)

  17. Life Limiting Issues for Long Term Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esselman, Thomas; Gaertner, John

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports on a study which identified and characterized life limiting issues for consideration by nuclear plant owners in their decision to extend plant life or seek subsequent license renewal. As nuclear plants operate for longer periods, the risk that a condition in the plant or an event that occurs, at the plant or elsewhere, will cause a plant owner not to extend plant life increases. The Fukushima accident has made this concept concrete. This paper defines 'Life Limiting' concepts for nuclear plants. It identifies the highest risk conditions and events that may limit duration of continued operation in nuclear plants and employs a survey to prioritize these concerns. Methods for evaluating these risks and changing the capability of systems, structures, and components (SSC) to reduce and manage this risk in long term operation are presented. Integrated obsolescence -the existence of an accumulation of events or condition that can threaten long term operation- is discussed. Many of the life limiting conditions or events may be controllable by early identification, recognition, and mitigation of the potential threat. The recognition of conditions may allow measures to be taken to mitigate the condition. Recognition of the potential for events that may be life limiting may allow actions to be taken that will minimize the likelihood or consequences of the event. These actions may include enhanced research on the expected behavior of the SSC, risk assessment and management, and enhanced monitoring and aging management at the plant. (author)

  18. Long-term Outcomes of Operative and Nonoperative Treatment of Congenital Coxa Vara.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David W; Saglam, Yavuz; De La Rocha, Adriana; Frasquillo, Brigid N; Tulchin-Francis, Kirsten; Kim, Harry K W

    2018-04-01

    Congenital coxa vara (CCV) is a rare hip condition with few long-term studies. The purpose of this study was to assess clinical, radiographic, and functional outcomes after operative and nonoperative treatment of CCV, assess reliability of radiographic parameters, and investigate risk factors for recurrence after surgery. Retrospective review was performed of all CCV patients treated at 1 institution from 1980 to 2010. In addition, patients were recalled for additional follow-up x-rays, modified Harris Hip Score (mHHS), and gait analysis. Radiographic measurements [neck-shaft angle (NSA), head-shaft angle (HSA), Hilgenreiner-epiphyseal angle (HEA), and femoral neck length (FNL)] were assessed for reliability using intraclass correlation coefficients. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors for recurrence after surgery. Forty-six hips in 32 patients were reviewed. Mean age at presentation was 5.4±4.9 years. Mean follow-up was 11.8±5.8 years. Valgus proximal femoral osteotomy was performed in 27 hips (20 patients). Initial deformity was greater in the operative group (NSA 90±17 degrees, HEA 68±19 degrees) versus nonoperative patients (NSA 122±19 degrees, HEA 34±14 degrees) (PNSA occurred in only 21%. In contrast, 56% of operative hips showed decreased FNL growth rates. Interobserver reliability was excellent for HEA (0.98), NSA (0.90), and FNL (0.89), and good for HSA (0.79). Repeat osteotomy was performed in 6 cases (22%). No significant predictors for recurrence were identified. At long-term follow-up for recalled patients, 72% had significantly abnormal gait, and 50% had fair-poor functional outcomes (mHHSNSA are the most reliable radiographic measurements of proximal femoral deformity in CCV. Recurrence is not uncommon, but no predictors were identified. Many patients have persistent gait abnormalities and functional impairment at long-term follow-up, regardless of prior treatment. Level III-retrospective cohort.

  19. SNSA surveillance over the ageing effects and ability for long term operation at Krsko NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savli, S.; Ferjancic, M.; Pavlin, D.; Lovincic, D.

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents the Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) tools used for verification the adequacy of management of ageing effects and assuring suitability for long term operation at the Krsko NPP. In addition to tools commonly used as PSR (Periodic Safety Review), assessment of plant modifications, regular inspections, the SNSA applies some special methods like monitoring the condition of important plant structures, systems and components (SSC) through special designed software, review and assessment of important plant programmes and its own set of performance indicators

  20. NPP Dukovany modernisation programme for long-term safe and efficient operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krizek, K.; Sabata, M.; Vasa, I.

    2004-01-01

    The strategy, main items and issues, responsibilities and linkages of the modernisation programme are outlined. The long-term operation (LTO) concept has been approved by the power plant board of directors, including the scope of activities and schedule, related processes have been defined, a working group of 40 specialists has been set up to manage the LTO process. The technical and economic optimum for the Dukovany LTO will be determined by the end of 2006, and a Technical LTO Programme for the Dukovany (Temelin) NPP will be completed by 2008 (2016). (P.A.)

  1. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  2. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  3. The role of nuclear techniques in the long-term prediction of radionuclide transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Airey, P.L.; Duerden, P.

    1985-01-01

    Problems associated with the long-term prediction of the migration of radionuclides, and the role of natural analogues in reducing the inherent uncertainties are discussed. Particular reference is made to the evaluation of uranium ore bodies in the Alligator Rivers region, Northern Territory, as analogues of high-level radioactive waste repositories. A range of nuclear techniques has been used to identify the role of colloids, of alpha recoil and of mineralogy in transport. Specific mention is made of a method being developed which enables models of the migration of solute through fractured rock to be assessed via a combination of alpha track, fission track and PIXE/PIGME techniques

  4. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

    2016-07-15

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  5. Early and long-term results of a valve-sparing operation for Marfan syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birks, E J; Webb, C; Child, A; Radley-Smith, R; Yacoub, M H

    1999-11-09

    We have previously described the experience, rationale, and development of a valve preserving technique, but its role in patients with Marfan syndrome has not previously been defined. Here, we attempt to determine the early and long-term results, timing, and determinants of outcome of this operation in patients with Marfan syndrome. Since 1979, 82 patients (73.2% of all patients with Marfan syndrome undergoing resection of aneurysm of the ascending aorta) were operated on using this technique. Ages ranged from 2 to 69 years (mean, 33.9 years). In all, there were 4 early deaths (4.9%), 2 with acute dissection and 2 with chronic aneurysm operated on as emergencies. There were no early deaths in 67 patients operated on electively. Actuarial survival for patients operated for chronic aneurysm was 94.2%, 94.2%, and 94.2% at 1, 5, and 10 years, respectively; that for acute dissection was 72.7%, 63. 6%, and 63.6%; and that for chronic dissection was 100%, 85.7%, and 75.0%. The probability of needing reoperation was 5.7%, 17.3%, and 17.3% at 1, 5, and 10 years. There were no instances of infective endocarditis or thromboembolic complications except in 2 patients operated on early in the series who had cusp extension. At the end of the follow-up, trivial or no aortic regurgitation was demonstrated in 33.3%, mild in 45.6%, moderate in 21.1%, and severe in 0. Valve-sparing operations are feasible in most patients with Marfan syndrome; they are applicable to patients with both dissection and chronic aneurysm. The early and long-term results are encouraging. Results are better in the absence of dissection, and prophylactic operation is warranted in some cases.

  6. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Prediction of long-term precipitate evolution in austenitic heat-resistant steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shim, Jae-Hyeok; Jung, Woo-Sang; Cho, Young Whan [Korea Institute of Science and Technology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Materials/Devices Div.; Kozeschnik, Ernst [Vienna Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Materials Science and Technology

    2010-07-01

    Numerical prediction of the long-term precipitate evolution in five different austenitic heat-resistant stainless steels, NF709, Super304H, Sanicro25, CF8C-PLUS and HTUPS has been carried out. MX and M{sub 23}C{sub 6} are predicted to remain as major precipitates during long-term aging in these steels. The addition of 3 wt% Cu produces very fine Cu-rich precipitates during aging in Super304H and Sanicro25. It is found that the amount of Z phase start to increase remarkably between 1,000 and 10,000 hours of aging at the expense of MX precipitates in the steels containing a high nitrogen content. However, the growth rate of Z phase is relatively slow and its average size reaches at most a few tens of nanometers after 100,000 hours of aging at 700 C, compared with 9-12% Cr ferritic/martensitic heat-resistant steels. The predicted precipitation sequence and precipitate size during aging are in general agreement with experimental observations. (orig.)

  8. c-Fos expression predicts long-term social memory retrieval in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüscher Dias, Thomaz; Fernandes Golino, Hudson; Moura de Oliveira, Vinícius Elias; Dutra Moraes, Márcio Flávio; Schenatto Pereira, Grace

    2016-10-15

    The way the rodent brain generally processes socially relevant information is rather well understood. How social information is stored into long-term social memory, however, is still under debate. Here, brain c-Fos expression was measured after adult mice were exposed to familiar or novel juveniles and expression was compared in several memory and socially relevant brain areas. Machine Learning algorithm Random Forest was then used to predict the social interaction category of adult mice based on c-Fos expression in these areas. Interaction with a familiar co-specific altered brain activation in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus, lateral septum and medial prefrontal cortex. Remarkably, Random Forest was able to predict interaction with a familiar juvenile with 100% accuracy. Activity in the olfactory bulb, amygdala, hippocampus and the medial prefrontal cortex were crucial to this prediction. From our results, we suggest long-term social memory depends on initial social olfactory processing in the medial amygdala and its output connections synergistically with non-social contextual integration by the hippocampus and medial prefrontal cortex top-down modulation of primary olfactory structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Predicted environmental impacts of long-term waste management at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topp, S.V.

    1979-01-01

    This paper describes the different alternative approaches to long-term waste management at SRP, along with their probable relative costs, risks, and uncertainties; the issue of methodology for decision-making in nuclear waste management is also raised. This paper contains a preliminary listing of the SRP alternaties including a simple cost-risk analysis. The alternatives are: glass shipped offsite to Federal repository; air-cooled vault with glass at SRP; liquid waste slurry stored in SRP bedrock cavern; and continued tank farm operation with salt and sludge

  10. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cho

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  11. A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jie; Chen, Kuilin; Mori, Junichi; Rashid, Mudassir M.

    2013-01-01

    Optimizing wind power generation and controlling the operation of wind turbines to efficiently harness the renewable wind energy is a challenging task due to the intermittency and unpredictable nature of wind speed, which has significant influence on wind power production. A new approach for long-term wind speed forecasting is developed in this study by integrating GMCM (Gaussian mixture copula model) and localized GPR (Gaussian process regression). The time series of wind speed is first classified into multiple non-Gaussian components through the Gaussian mixture copula model and then Bayesian inference strategy is employed to incorporate the various non-Gaussian components using the posterior probabilities. Further, the localized Gaussian process regression models corresponding to different non-Gaussian components are built to characterize the stochastic uncertainty and non-stationary seasonality of the wind speed data. The various localized GPR models are integrated through the posterior probabilities as the weightings so that a global predictive model is developed for the prediction of wind speed. The proposed GMCM–GPR approach is demonstrated using wind speed data from various wind farm locations and compared against the GMCM-based ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) and SVR (support vector regression) methods. In contrast to GMCM–ARIMA and GMCM–SVR methods, the proposed GMCM–GPR model is able to well characterize the multi-seasonality and uncertainty of wind speed series for accurate long-term prediction. - Highlights: • A novel predictive modeling method is proposed for long-term wind speed forecasting. • Gaussian mixture copula model is estimated to characterize the multi-seasonality. • Localized Gaussian process regression models can deal with the random uncertainty. • Multiple GPR models are integrated through Bayesian inference strategy. • The proposed approach shows higher prediction accuracy and reliability

  12. Sudden Death Due to Coronary Artery Lesions Long-term After the Arterial Switch Operation: A Systematic Review.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijk, Sebastiaan W.H.; van der Stelt, Femke; ter Heide, Henriëtte; Schoof, Paul H.; Doevendans, Pieter A.F.M.; Meijboom, Folkert J.; Breur, Johannes M.P.J.

    2017-01-01

    Background The arterial switch operation (ASO) is the preferred procedure for children with dextrotransposition of the great arteries or Taussig-Bing anomaly. Short- as well as long-term outcome of ASO are excellent, but coronary artery stenoses are reported as a common long-term complication. It

  13. Long term operation of nuclear power plants in Spain: preparing for the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marcelles, I.; Frutos, E.; Jardi, X.; Cosgaya, F., E-mail: imarcelles@tecnatom.es [Tecnatom, S. A., Av. Montes de Oca 1, 28703 San Sebastian de los Reyes, Madrid (Spain)

    2017-09-15

    The Spanish nuclear industry is preparing for the Long Term Operation (LTO) of its complete fleet. Therefore, an important number of activities are being currently developed in order to achieve the safe and economical life extension of the operational life of the Spanish nuclear power plants. This paper describes the main activities that will be performed to meet the licensing requirements, in order to be granted and operating license for LTO, such as the development of Ageing Management Plans (Amp), Time Limited Ageing Analysis (TLAA) as well as databases and software tools to support LTO. In addition to this, this paper will describe the implementation of the NDE activities included in the AMPs and some of the research and development programs that the Spanish nuclear industry research is working on related to LTO (e.g. cable ageing, concrete degradation, etc.) (Author)

  14. Long term operation of nuclear power plants in Spain: preparing for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcelles, I.; Frutos, E.; Jardi, X.; Cosgaya, F.

    2017-09-01

    The Spanish nuclear industry is preparing for the Long Term Operation (LTO) of its complete fleet. Therefore, an important number of activities are being currently developed in order to achieve the safe and economical life extension of the operational life of the Spanish nuclear power plants. This paper describes the main activities that will be performed to meet the licensing requirements, in order to be granted and operating license for LTO, such as the development of Ageing Management Plans (Amp), Time Limited Ageing Analysis (TLAA) as well as databases and software tools to support LTO. In addition to this, this paper will describe the implementation of the NDE activities included in the AMPs and some of the research and development programs that the Spanish nuclear industry research is working on related to LTO (e.g. cable ageing, concrete degradation, etc.) (Author)

  15. Status of long term operation of nuclear power plants in the US

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, G., E-mail: gyoung4@entergy.com [Entergy Nuclear, License Renewal, New Orleans, LA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    As of early-2014, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has renewed the operating licenses for 73 of the 100 U.S. operating nuclear units, allowing for up to 60 years of safe operation. In addition, the NRC has license renewal applications under review for 18 more units and up to 8 additional units have announced plans to submit applications by 2018. This brings the total of renewed licenses and announced plans for renewal to 99% of the operating nuclear units in the U.S. In addition, by the end of 2014, there will be 38 nuclear plants that will have operated for more than 40 years and will be eligible to seek a subsequent license renewal to allow operation up to 80 years. Although some of the operating nuclear units are expected to shutdown due to economic issues, most of the remaining operating plant owners are keeping the option open for long term operation beyond 60 years. NRC and the U.S. nuclear industry have made significant progress in preparing the way for subsequent license renewal applications. This presentation covers the status of the U.S. license renewal process and issues being addressed for possible applications for subsequent renewals for up to 80 years of operation. (author)

  16. The role of pressure vessel embrittlement in the long term operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballesteros, A.; Ahlstrand, R.; Bruynooghe, C.; Estorff, U. von; Debarberis, L.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Relevant open scientific issues for the long term operation of RPVs are discussed (flux effect, late blooming phases, etc.). ► Several European and American research programmes dealing with these open issues are reviewed. ► A method for consolidation and preservation of knowledge in this field is presented. - Abstract: The lack of new build of plants over the last twenty years has resulted in a switch within the industry from design, construction and development of new systems to the strengthening of safety systems and to the life extension, or long term operation (LTO), of existing reactors. The most relevant component of any nuclear power plan (NPP) is the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). This is because currently the RPV is still considered irreplaceable or prohibitively expensive to replace. This means, that if it degrades sufficiently, it could be the operational life limiting feature of the NPP. A RPV operational life of 60 years is being considered frequently by many utilities in their plant life management programmes. Areas of improvement facing long term operation are the reduction of uncertainties in the embrittlement parameters of irradiated vessels, and the development of embrittlement trend curves at high fluence levels, where surveillance data are scarce. Different techniques can be used to upgrade the surveillance programmes, as the use of miniature or reconstituted specimens and the application of best estimate assessment tools (e.g. Master Curve). Several relevant international research projects are on-going or have been proposed to clarify the material condition of long operated vessels. Knowledge management is a complementary tool, but not for it less important. The general context for LTO of RPVs is presented in this paper. Starting with a review of relevant embrittlement issues still open, followed by presenting the different techniques and tools that can be used to support LTO, and summarising the scopes of relevant European

  17. Deep geological repositories. Safe operation and long-term safety in the prism of reversibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espivent, Camille; Tichauer, Michael [IRSN, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2015-07-01

    A deep geological repository is the reference solution enshrined in the French law for the long-term management of high-level radioactive waste. The current project is led by Andra, the French radioactive waste management organization. As a technical support organization, IRSN's mission is, on the basis of the safety case produced by Andra, to assess the safety of such a facility at its various stages of development, that is to say the design, construction, operation and post-closure phases of the facility. Such a facility will have to meet specific requirements, within different time frames as stated above. One of the requirements is ''reversibility'': in fact, French law poses that the geological disposal will have to be ''reversible'' for a certain time, yet not fully defined. Reversibility is nevertheless believed encompassing both the decision making process related to the waste emplacement process during operational phase and the ability to retrieve waste, should such a decision be made. Thus, underground structures have to be designed and operated to allow both waste emplacement and removal. Moreover, future decision making about the disposal process will have to rely on a sound technical basis. This implies a data collection scheme and a monitoring program of the facility to check if the disposal process is bound by limits, controls and conditions compatible with (i) a safe operation of the facility and (ii) the state of the facility that the operator wants to achieve at the time of its closure, so that long-term safety is guaranteed. Therefore, technical criteria and key parameters have to be selected and monitored during construction and operation, that is to say for decades. Then, reversibility have to make room for corrective actions, including the retrieval of waste, if something goes wrong and especially if the facility is not seen as safe anymore, especially in the perspective of long-term safety. To

  18. Deep geological repositories. Safe operation and long-term safety in the prism of reversibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espivent, Camille; Tichauer, Michael

    2015-01-01

    A deep geological repository is the reference solution enshrined in the French law for the long-term management of high-level radioactive waste. The current project is led by Andra, the French radioactive waste management organization. As a technical support organization, IRSN's mission is, on the basis of the safety case produced by Andra, to assess the safety of such a facility at its various stages of development, that is to say the design, construction, operation and post-closure phases of the facility. Such a facility will have to meet specific requirements, within different time frames as stated above. One of the requirements is ''reversibility'': in fact, French law poses that the geological disposal will have to be ''reversible'' for a certain time, yet not fully defined. Reversibility is nevertheless believed encompassing both the decision making process related to the waste emplacement process during operational phase and the ability to retrieve waste, should such a decision be made. Thus, underground structures have to be designed and operated to allow both waste emplacement and removal. Moreover, future decision making about the disposal process will have to rely on a sound technical basis. This implies a data collection scheme and a monitoring program of the facility to check if the disposal process is bound by limits, controls and conditions compatible with (i) a safe operation of the facility and (ii) the state of the facility that the operator wants to achieve at the time of its closure, so that long-term safety is guaranteed. Therefore, technical criteria and key parameters have to be selected and monitored during construction and operation, that is to say for decades. Then, reversibility have to make room for corrective actions, including the retrieval of waste, if something goes wrong and especially if the facility is not seen as safe anymore, especially in the perspective of long-term safety. To

  19. Dosimetric Inhomogeneity Predicts for Long-Term Breast Pain After Breast-Conserving Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mak, Kimberley S. [Harvard Radiation Oncology Program, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Chen, Yu-Hui; Catalano, Paul J. [Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Punglia, Rinaa S.; Wong, Julia S.; Truong, Linh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Bellon, Jennifer R., E-mail: jbellon@LROC.harvard.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dana-Farber/Brigham and Women' s Cancer Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Purpose: The objective of this cross-sectional study was to characterize long-term breast pain in patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery and radiation (BCT) and to identify predictors of this pain. Methods and Materials: We identified 355 eligible patients with Tis-T2N0M0 breast cancer who underwent BCT in 2007 to 2011, without recurrent disease. A questionnaire derived from the Late Effects Normal Tissue Task Force (LENT) Subjective, Objective, Management, Analytic (SOMA) scale was mailed with 7 items detailing the severity, frequency, duration, and impact of ipsilateral breast pain over the previous 2 weeks. A logistic regression model identified predictors of long-term breast pain based on questionnaire responses and patient, disease, and treatment characteristics. Results: The questionnaire response rate was 80% (n=285). One hundred thirty-five patients (47%) reported pain in the treated breast, with 19 (14%) having pain constantly or at least daily; 15 (11%) had intense pain. The pain interfered with daily activities in 11 patients (8%). Six patients (4%) took analgesics for breast pain. Fourteen (10%) thought that the pain affected their quality of life. On univariable analysis, volume of breast tissue treated to ≥105% of the prescribed dose (odds ratio [OR] 1.001 per cc, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.000-1.002; P=.045), volume treated to ≥110% (OR 1.009 per cc, 95% CI 1.002-1.016; P=.012), hormone therapy use (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.12-3.39; P=.02), and other sites of pain (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.05-3.07; P=.03) predicted for long-term breast pain. On multivariable analysis, volume ≥110% (OR 1.01 per cc, 95% CI 1.003-1.017; P=.007), shorter time since treatment (OR 0.98 per month, 95% CI 0.96-0.998; P=.03), and hormone therapy (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.05-3.25; P=.03) were independent predictors of pain. Conclusion: Long-term breast pain was common after BCT. Although nearly half of patients had pain, most considered it tolerable. Dosimetric inhomogeneity

  20. Plant life (PLIM) and ageing management (AM) in German NPPs. Prerequisite for long term operation (LTO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuler, X.

    2010-01-01

    dependant) or based on monitoring of relevant parameters (predictive). The results of these procedures are assessed for each SSC, specifically. For both groups of SSC, in addition to the control of (known) damage mechanisms, all significant plant data (e.g. reports of failures, work orders) and the reports from other plants (incl. exchange of knowledge) are assessed regularly in order to be prepared for new damage mechanisms (and to prevent / control them consequently). This is performed by an appropriate software approach. Within this SSC-specific assessment the entity of measures to control degradation effects is reviewed and modified / extended, if necessary. On the basis of good experiences with the AM procedure and driven by the latest political development (nuclear power is an option in energy supply again) the utilities are re-structuring their plant life management (PLIM), actually. PLIM addresses both safety and economical aspects. Consequently, all SSC of a plant and every possible degradation mechanism have to be considered within PLIM - besides other more not-technical aspects. AM is part of the plant life management. Regarding technical equipment, the PLIM procedure is similar to that established in AM. Depending on the requirements it is necessary to - establish quality during design and manufacture - safeguard this quality in operation by appropriate measures - assess procedure / measures and existing quality, regularly. Living an effective PLIM procedure the utilities are kept on the state of the art; on this basis energy production can be safe and economic at any time. This is an essential prerequisite for long term operation (LTO). (orig.)

  1. Long-term impacts of unconventional drilling operations on human and animal health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamberger, Michelle; Oswald, Robert E

    2015-01-01

    Public health concerns related to the expansion of unconventional oil and gas drilling have sparked intense debate. In 2012, we published case reports of animals and humans affected by nearby drilling operations. Because of the potential for long-term effects of even low doses of environmental toxicants and the cumulative impact of exposures of multiple chemicals by multiple routes of exposure, a longitudinal study of these cases is necessary. Twenty-one cases from five states were followed longitudinally; the follow-up period averaged 25 months. In addition to humans, cases involved food animals, companion animals and wildlife. More than half of all exposures were related to drilling and hydraulic fracturing operations; these decreased slightly over time. More than a third of all exposures were associated with wastewater, processing and production operations; these exposures increased slightly over time. Health impacts decreased for families and animals moving from intensively drilled areas or remaining in areas where drilling activity decreased. In cases of families remaining in the same area and for which drilling activity either remained the same or increased, no change in health impacts was observed. Over the course of the study, the distribution of symptoms was unchanged for humans and companion animals, but in food animals, reproductive problems decreased and both respiratory and growth problems increased. This longitudinal case study illustrates the importance of obtaining detailed epidemiological data on the long-term health effects of multiple chemical exposures and multiple routes of exposure that are characteristic of the environmental impacts of unconventional drilling operations.

  2. Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallis, I.G.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

  3. General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

    2016-01-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

  4. Acute Sleep Deprivation Blocks Short- and Long-Term Operant Memory in Aplysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Harini C; Gandour, Catherine E; Ramos, Joshua L; Wrinkle, Mariah C; Sanchez-Pacheco, Joseph J; Lyons, Lisa C

    2016-12-01

    Insufficient sleep in individuals appears increasingly common due to the demands of modern work schedules and technology use. Consequently, there is a growing need to understand the interactions between sleep deprivation and memory. The current study determined the effects of acute sleep deprivation on short and long-term associative memory using the marine mollusk Aplysia californica , a relatively simple model system well known for studies of learning and memory. Aplysia were sleep deprived for 9 hours using context changes and tactile stimulation either prior to or after training for the operant learning paradigm, learning that food is inedible (LFI). The effects of sleep deprivation on short-term (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) were assessed. Acute sleep deprivation prior to LFI training impaired the induction of STM and LTM with persistent effects lasting at least 24 h. Sleep deprivation immediately after training blocked the consolidation of LTM. However, sleep deprivation following the period of molecular consolidation did not affect memory recall. Memory impairments were independent of handling-induced stress, as daytime handled control animals demonstrated no memory deficits. Additional training immediately after sleep deprivation failed to rescue the induction of memory, but additional training alleviated the persistent impairment in memory induction when training occurred 24 h following sleep deprivation. Acute sleep deprivation inhibited the induction and consolidation, but not the recall of memory. These behavioral studies establish Aplysia as an effective model system for studying the interactions between sleep and memory formation. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  5. Long-term biatrial recordings in post-operative atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masè, M; Graffigna, A; Sinelli, S; Pallaoro, G; Nollo, G; Ravelli, F

    2010-01-01

    Although atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common complication of cardiac surgery, its pathophysiology remains unclear. The study of post-operative AF demands for the recording of cardiac electrical activity in correspondence of AF onset and progression. Long-term recordings in post-surgery patients could provide this information, but, to date, have been limited to surface signals, which precludes a characterization of the arrhythmic triggers and substrate. In this study we demonstrate the feasibility of a continuous long-term recording of atrial electrical activities from the right and left atria in post-surgery patients. Local atrial epicardial electrograms are acquired by positioning temporary pacing wires in the right and left atria at the end of the intervention, while three day recordings are obtained by a digital holter recorder, adapted to epicardial signal features. The capability of the system to map local atrial activity and the possibility to obtain quantitative information on atrial rate and synchronization from the processed epicardial signals are proven in representative examples. The quantitative description of local atrial properties opens new perspective in the investigation of post-surgery AF.

  6. Plant life management for long term operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The world's fleet of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) is approximately 20 years old on average, and most plants are believed to be able to operate for 60 years or more. The design life of a NPP is typically 30 to 40 years. This may be extended by 10 to 20 years, or more, provided that the plant can demonstrate by analysis, trending, equipment and system upgrades, increased vigilance, testing, ageing management, and other means that license renewal presents no threat to public health and safety. The basic goal of Plant Life Management (PLiM) is to satisfy requirements for safe long-term supplies of electricity in an economically competitive way. The basic goal of the operating company and the owners to operate as long as economically reasonable and possible from safety point of view. PLiM is a management tool for doing that. PLiM is a system of programmes and procedures to satisfy safety requirements for safe operation and for power production in a competitive way and for time which is rational from technical and economical point of view. PLiM is not only a technical system, it is also an attitude of the operational company to keep the plant in operation as long as possible from safety and business point of view. The common objectives of PLiM assessment is to help and review the pre-conditions for PLiM and long-term operation approaches. PLiM should not be associated with extension of operational life-time of the NPP only. It is an owner's attitude and rational approach of the operating company to run the business economically and safely. The effectiveness of PLiM Programme can be assessed by three complementary kinds of assessment: self-assessment, peer review and comprehensive programme review by the plant owner/ operator. IAEA will provide the assessment service for peer review of PLiM. Preparation for a PLiM Assessment service will be initiated only after the IAEA has been formally approached by a MS and funding (e.g. an existing Technical cooperation project) has

  7. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amnon eYacoby

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK. We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or one day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information one day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories.

  8. Biological effects of petroleum hydrocarbons: Predictions of long-term effects and recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capuzzo, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Biological effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine organisms and ecosystems are dependent on the persistence and bioavailability of specific hydrocarbons, the ability of organisms to accumulate and metabolize various hydrocarbons, the fate of metabolized products, and the interference of specific hydrocarbons with normal metabolic processes that may alter an organism's chances for survival and reproduction in the environment. In considering the long-term effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine ecosystems it is important to ascertain what biological effects may result in subtle ecological changes, changes in community structure and function, and possible impairment of fisheries resources. It is also important to understand which hydrocarbons persist in benthic environments and the sublethal effects that lead to reduced growth, delayed development and reduced reproductive effort, population decline and the loss of that population's function in marine communities. Only through a multi-disciplinary approach to the study of the fate, transport and effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine ecosystems will there be a significant improvement in the ability to predict the long-term effects of oil spills and to elucidate the mechanisms of recovery

  9. Long-term outcomes following laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding: postoperative psychological sequelae predict outcome at 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholtz, Samantha; Bidlake, Louise; Morgan, John; Fiennes, Alberic; El-Etar, Ashraf; Lacey, John Hubert; McCluskey, Sara

    2007-09-01

    NICE guidelines state that patients with psychological contra-indications should not be considered for bariatric surgery, including Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding (LAGB) surgery as treatment of morbid obesity, although no consistent correlation between psychiatric illness and long-term outcome in LAGB has been established. This is to our knowledge the first study to evaluate long-term outcomes in LAGB for a full range of DSM-IV defined psychiatric and eating disorders, and forms part of a research portfolio developed by the authors aimed at defining psychological predictors of bariatric surgery in the short-, medium- and long-term. Case notes of 37 subjects operated on between April 1997 and June 2000, who had undergone structured clinical interview during pre-surgical assessment to yield diagnoses of mental and eating disorders according to DSM-IV criteria were analyzed according to a set of operationally defined criteria. Statistical analysis was carried out to compare those with a poor outcome and those considered to have a good outcome in terms of psychiatric profile. In this group of mainly female, Caucasian subjects, ranging in age from 27 to 60 years, one-third were diagnosed with a mental disorder according to DSM-IV criteria. The development of postoperative DSM-IV defined binge eating disorder (BED) or depression strongly predicted poor surgical outcome, but pre-surgical psychiatric factors alone did not. Although pre-surgical psychiatric assessment alone cannot predict outcome, an absence of preoperative psychiatric illness should not reassure surgeons who should be mindful of postoperative psychiatric sequelae, particularly BED. The importance of providing an integrated biopsychosocial model of care in bariatric teams is highlighted.

  10. The long-term functional outcome of type II odontoid fractures managed non-operatively.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Butler, J S

    2010-10-01

    Odontoid fractures currently account for 9-15% of all adult cervical spine fractures, with type II fractures accounting for the majority of these injuries. Despite recent advances in internal fixation techniques, the management of type II fractures still remains controversial with advocates still supporting non-rigid immobilization as the definitive treatment of these injuries. At the NSIU, over an 11-year period between 1 July 1996 and 30 June 2006, 66 patients (n = 66) were treated by external immobilization for type II odontoid fractures. The medical records, radiographs and CT scans of all patients identified were reviewed. Clinical follow-up evaluation was performed using the Cervical Spine Outcomes Questionnaire (CSOQ). The objectives of this study were to evaluate the long-term functional outcome of patients suffering isolated type II odontoid fractures managed non-operatively and to correlate patient age and device type with clinical and functional outcome. Of the 66 patients, there were 42 males and 24 females (M:F = 1.75:1) managed non-operatively for type II odontoid fractures. The mean follow-up time was 66 months. Advancing age was highly correlated with poorer long-term functional outcomes when assessing neck pain (r = 0.19, P = 0.1219), shoulder and arm pain (r = 0.41, P = 0.0007), physical symptoms (r = 0.25, P = 0.472), functional disability (r = 0.24, P = 0.0476) and psychological distress (r = 0.41, P = 0.0007). Patients >65 years displayed a higher rate of pseudoarthrosis (21.43 vs. 1.92%) and established non-union (7.14 vs. 0%) than patients <65 years. The non-operative management of type II odontoid fractures is an effective and satisfactory method of treating type II odontoid fractures, particularly those of a stable nature. However, patients of advancing age have been demonstrated to have significantly poorer functional outcomes in the long term. This may be linked to higher rates of non-union.

  11. Long-term results after aortic valve-sparing operation (David I).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Malakh; Baraki, Hassina; Maeding, Ilona; Fitzner, Sebastian; Sarikouch, Samir; Khaladj, Nawid; Hagl, Christian; Haverich, Axel

    2012-01-01

    Aortic valve-sparing David procedure has gained broad acceptance. However, few long-term results have been published. We present our results. More than 450 David procedures have been performed in our institution so far. Of these, 126 patients were operated between July 1993 and December 2000. Median age was 57 (8-83) years and 46 (36.5%) were female. As many as 26 (20.6%) had Marfan syndrome, 21 (16.7%) had acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) and 67 (53.2%) had additional procedures. There were six (4.8%) deaths in 30 post-operative period (POD), four of whom had AADA. In the follow-up, there were 32 (25.4%) late deaths, 11 (34.4%) of these were caused by cardiac or underlying disease or op-related. As many as 15 (11.9%) patients were re-operated; six (40%) were Marfan patients and two (13.3%) had early endocarditis. Follow-up echocardiography of 76 (60.3%) event-free patients showed valve insufficiency (AI)≤AI I° in 68 (89.5%) and grade II in 7 (9.2%) patients. Leaflet degeneration due to proposed leaflet contact with the straight Dacron graft was not observed. A total of 36 (47.4%) patients were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I, 33 (43.4%) in NYHA II, and five (6.6%) were in class III. During the entire follow-up of 790 patient-years, there was no stroke or major bleeding. Survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 93%, 85% and 70%, respectively. Freedom from valve replacement at 1, 5 and 10 years was 96%, 91% and 87%, respectively. Regardless of the underlying pathology, valve-sparing David I procedure has acceptable long-term results. Valve-related complications such as stroke or major bleeding is exceedingly low.

  12. Long-term results after aortic valve-sparing operation (David I)†

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Malakh; Baraki, Hassina; Maeding, Ilona; Fitzner, Sebastian; Sarikouch, Samir; Khaladj, Nawid; Hagl, Christian; Haverich, Axel

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Aortic valve-sparing David procedure has gained broad acceptance. However, few long-term results have been published. We present our results. METHODS More than 450 David procedures have been performed in our institution so far. Of these, 126 patients were operated between July 1993 and December 2000. Median age was 57 (8–83) years and 46 (36.5%) were female. As many as 26 (20.6%) had Marfan syndrome, 21 (16.7%) had acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) and 67 (53.2%) had additional procedures. RESULTS There were six (4.8%) deaths in 30 post-operative period (POD), four of whom had AADA. In the follow-up, there were 32 (25.4%) late deaths, 11 (34.4%) of these were caused by cardiac or underlying disease or op-related. As many as 15 (11.9%) patients were re-operated; six (40%) were Marfan patients and two (13.3%) had early endocarditis. Follow-up echocardiography of 76 (60.3%) event-free patients showed valve insufficiency (AI) ≤ AI I° in 68 (89.5%) and grade II in 7 (9.2%) patients. Leaflet degeneration due to proposed leaflet contact with the straight Dacron graft was not observed. A total of 36 (47.4%) patients were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class I, 33 (43.4%) in NYHA II, and five (6.6%) were in class III. During the entire follow-up of 790 patient-years, there was no stroke or major bleeding. Survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 93%, 85% and 70%, respectively. Freedom from valve replacement at 1, 5 and 10 years was 96%, 91% and 87%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of the underlying pathology, valve-sparing David I procedure has acceptable long-term results. Valve-related complications such as stroke or major bleeding is exceedingly low. PMID:21632258

  13. EU 2030 targets 'unachievable' without long-term nuclear operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitev, Lubomir [NucNet, Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-01-15

    Nuclear energy will continue to support greenhouse gas emission reduction targets until 2020, but without decisions on long-term operation of ageing reactors, it will be difficult for the EU to meet its 2030 targets, International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Maria van der Hoeven, tells NucNet in an interview. The IEA has quite a few remarks and questions related to the EU goals of competitiveness, security of supply and sustainability. It is good to have these targets, but up until now the EU is missing the direct connection between the three goals. What is mostly needed to achieve the goals is to finalise the EU's internal energy market. Secondly cost-effective climate and energy policies are needed because it is not only about climate and energy, but also about economic development and competitiveness. The ageing EU reactor fleet requires country-level and owner/operator-level decisions in the short term regarding plant safety regulations, plant upgrades, uprates, lifetime extensions and licence renewals. Upgrading and uprating existing nuclear plants is one of the cheapest ways of producing carbon-free electricity in the EU. Without long-term operation, the IEA expects nuclear capacity in the EU could fall by a factor of six by 2030 and that will make it more difficult to achieve the EU's 2030 climate targets. Public opinion is an important topic for the acceptance of all energy sources and it is different in all IEA member countries. Europe is very sensitive to almost all forms of energy, including wind turbines and solar panels. This is linked to a lack of information, so we need more and better transparency on information for people.

  14. Antioxidant defenses predict long-term survival in a passerine bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal and pathological processes entail the production of oxidative substances that can damage biological molecules and harm physiological functions. Organisms have evolved complex mechanisms of antioxidant defense, and any imbalance between oxidative challenge and antioxidant protection can depress fitness components and accelerate senescence. While the role of oxidative stress in pathogenesis and aging has been studied intensively in humans and model animal species under laboratory conditions, there is a dearth of knowledge on its role in shaping life-histories of animals under natural selection regimes. Yet, given the pervasive nature and likely fitness consequences of oxidative damage, it can be expected that the need to secure efficient antioxidant protection is powerful in molding the evolutionary ecology of animals. Here, we test whether overall antioxidant defense varies with age and predicts long-term survival, using a wild population of a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, as a model.Plasma antioxidant capacity (AOC of breeding individuals was measured using standard protocols and annual survival was monitored over five years (2006-2010 on a large sample of selection episodes. AOC did not covary with age in longitudinal analyses after discounting the effect of selection. AOC positively predicted annual survival independently of sex. Individuals were highly consistent in their relative levels of AOC, implying the existence of additive genetic variance and/or environmental (including early maternal components consistently acting through their lives.Using longitudinal data we showed that high levels of antioxidant protection positively predict long-term survival in a wild animal population. Present results are therefore novel in disclosing a role for antioxidant protection in determining survival under natural conditions, strongly demanding for more longitudinal eco-physiological studies of life-histories in

  15. Special issue on ageing management and long term operation of light water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kashima, Koichi; Kanno, Masanori; Kimura, Itsurou

    2008-01-01

    Ageing management and long term operation of light water reactors became important in Japan and relevant research on physical and materials ageing has been carried out among organizations of government, academia and industry and establishment of technical standards and guideline based on the results is under way. The Japan Energy Policy Institute (JEPI) issued a special number discussing this theme, which consisted of ten reports of experts describing these activities. Main topics were ageing evaluation of reactor components due to neutron irradiation embrittlement and stress corrosion cracking, regulatory evaluation of deteriorations due to ageing with technical information basis, technology development in the area of inspection/monitoring, ageing evaluation and preventive maintenance/repairs, nuclear power plant life management of electric utilities, and advancement of reactor maintenance and inspection. (T. Tanaka)

  16. Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørsted, David Dynnes; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Jensen, Gorm B

    2012-01-01

    It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population.......It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population....

  17. Long-term outcome in elderly patients after operation for traumatic intracranial hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipolle, Mark D; Geffe, Kevin; Getchell, John; Reed, James F; Fulda, Gerard; Sugarman, Michael; Tinkoff, Glen H

    2014-08-01

    This study examined outcomes in elderly TBI patients who underwent a cranial operation. We identified TBI patients > or = 65 who underwent a cranial operation from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2008. Data collected included: age, admission GCS, mechanism of injury, ISS, Head AIS, type of operation, hemorrhage acuity, time to operation, pre-hospital warfarin or clopidogrel, and in-hospital death. Survivors were contacted by phone to determine an Extended Glasgow Outcome Score (GOSE). A favorable outcome was defined as having a GOSE of > or = 5 at follow-up, an unfavorable outcome was defined as: in-hospital death, death within one year of injury, and a GOSE GOSE interview of these: 17 were lost to follow-up, seven refused the GOSE interview, 22 had a GOSE > or = 5, and ten had a GOSE < 5. Mean follow-up was 42.6 +/- 14.9 months. Of all the factors analyzed, only older age was associated with an unfavorable outcome. While age was associated with outcome, we were unable to demonstrate any other early factors that were associated with long-term functional outcome in elderly patients that underwent a cranial operation for TBI.

  18. A comparative study on prediction methods for China's medium- and long-term coal demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Bing-Bing; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Wang, Jin-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Given the dominant position of coal in China's energy structure and in order to ensure a safe and stable energy supply, it is essential to perform a scientific and effective prediction of China's medium- and long-term coal demand. Based on the historical data of coal consumption and related factors such as GDP (Gross domestic product), coal price, industrial structure, total population, energy structure, energy efficiency, coal production and urbanization rate from 1987 to 2012, this study compared the prediction effects of five types of models. These models include the VAR (vector autoregressive model), RBF (radial basis function) neural network model, GA-DEM (genetic algorithm demand estimation model), PSO-DEM (particle swarm optimization demand estimation model) and IO (input–output model). By comparing the results of different models with the corresponding actual coal consumption, it is concluded that with a testing period from 2006 to 2012, the PSO-DEM model has a relatively optimal predicted effect on China's total coal demand, where the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) is close to or below 2%. - Highlights: • The prediction effects of five methods for China's coal demand were compared. • Each model has acceptable prediction results, with MAPE below 5%. • Particle swarm optimization demand estimation model has better forecast efficacy.

  19. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes. © 2013.

  20. Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine

    2009-01-01

    In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long...... alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.......-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk...

  1. Self-reported musculoskeletal pain predicts long-term increase in general health care use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael; Søgaard, Karen

    2014-01-01

    reported during the past two weeks from the Danish National Cohort Study were merged with data from the Danish National Health Insurance Registry and the National Patient Registry containing information on consultations in the Danish primary and secondary care sector. Absolute and relative rates for all......Aims: Musculoskeletal pain and disability is a modern epidemic and a major reason for seeking health care. The aim of this study is to determine absolute and relative rates of care seeking over 20 years for adults reporting musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: Interview data on musculoskeletal pain...... to any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS SELF-REPORT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS PREDICTS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM INCREASE IN GENERAL USE OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND THE SECONDARY HEALTH CARE SECTOR:...

  2. The long-term nutritional status in stroke patients and its predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquereau, Julie; Allart, Etienne; Romon, Monique; Rousseaux, Marc

    2014-07-01

    Malnutrition is common in the first few months after stroke and contributes to a poor overall outcome. We analyzed long-term weight changes and their predictive factors. A total of 71 first-ever stroke patients were included in the study and examined (1) their weight on admission to the acute stroke unit (usual weight [UW]), on admission to the rehabilitation unit, on discharge from the rehabilitation unit, and then 1 year or more after the stroke (median time: 2.5 years), (2) the presence of malnutrition after stroke, and (3) possible predictive factors, namely, sociodemographic factors, clinical characteristics (concerning the stroke, the patient's current neurologic status and the presence of diabetes mellitus and depression), and the present nutritional state (including eating difficulties, anorexia, and changes in food intake and food preferences). Body weight fell (4.0 kg) during the patients' stay in the stroke unit, increased moderately in the rehabilitation unit (2.0 kg), and returned to the UW by the long-term measurement. However, at the last observation, 40.1% of the patients weighed markedly less than their UW, 38.0% weighed markedly more, and 21.1% were relatively stable. Predictors of weight change were a change in preferences for sweet food products and a change in food intake. Malnutrition was frequent (47.9%) and associated with reduced food intake, residence in an institution, and diabetes mellitus. Malnutrition was highly prevalent, with an important role of change in food intake and food preferences, which could result from brain lesions and specific regimens. Living in an institution needs consideration, as its negative effects can be prevented. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Lesion load may predict long-term cognitive dysfunction in multiple sclerosis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Patti

    Full Text Available Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm in Multiple Sclerosis (MS.To investigate the role of white matter (WM and gray matter (GM in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients.303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up. The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f, WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f, a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT, the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL, the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST, and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT. In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors.AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12-1.97 p = 0.006, PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14-1.80 p = 0.002, SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35-2.20 p<0.001, SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28-2.03 p<0.001, MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2-1.9 p<0.001, MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2-1.9 p = 0.001, MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02-1.55 p = 0.032.In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome.

  4. Investigations on materials for small Stirling refrigerators in long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelland, W.; Kose, V.

    1990-04-01

    Work is being carried out world-wide on the development of refrigerators with low power requirements for the cooling of high-temperature superconductors and other cryoelectronic components. Due to its good efficiency factor, the well-known Stirling principle is particularly suitable for this purpose, but the increasing contamination of the working gases needed for the process which is caused by outgassing and the permeability to gas of the epoxide resins and other materials generally used makes it prone to interference over long periods of operation. For the first time, DURAN glass has been taken as a regenerator material and tested with successful results over a long period of operation in a small Stirling refrigerator designed and constructed for this purpose. A commercial double-membrane compressor which was also to be tested in long-term operation was converted into a dynamic pressure source and used as a refrigerator component. With this refrigerator, it was possible to maintain a temperature of 34 K over a continous period of operation of 77 days. Parallel to this, mass spectrometric permeation measurements were carried out on a compressor membrane made of VITON in which the water vapour of the atmosphere dominated. (orig.) [de

  5. Development of an integrated fatigue assessment concept for ensuring long term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilg, U.; Ganswind, J.; Motschiedler, W.; Haelbig, J.

    2010-01-01

    Demonstrating fatigue resistance of mechanical components will be one of the major tasks for justification of long term operation and life time extension for nuclear power plants in the near future. As the operational periods of several existing plants are already approaching the specified amount of load cycles laid down in the design basis, discussions have raised concerning the reliability of the as so far established fatigue evaluation procedures. For instance the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission addresses this aspect by considering the conservatism of the design fatigue curves in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code for nuclear components. Thus, the impact of environmental degradation on the fatigue behaviour of the pressure retaining parts due to light water ambiance is of special concern. The US-NRC has issued a Regulatory Guide providing the acceptance criteria for domestic license application for new power plants appointing the implementation of additional penalty factors accounting for the environmental impact during the ASME fatigue evaluation. Whereas for existing plants the US-NRC encounters due to ''significant conservatism in quantifying other plant-related variables involved in cumulative fatigue life calculations the design of the current fleet of reactors is satisfactory.'' The German Nuclear Safety Standards Commission (KTA) is going to revise the respective rules on the design and analysis for nuclear components, as well. It is intended to define ''Awareness Thresholds'' for the cumulative usage factor demanding additional considerations beyond CUF > 0.2 for austenitic and beyond CUF > 0.4 for ferritic materials underlying approval processes for new components. However, it is expected that these additional requirements will also be augmented to the evaluation of existing components. For that reason VGB intends to set up a programme for investigations in order to prepare an integrated fatigue assessment concept which is entitled to give a

  6. Usefulness of a 50-meter round walking test for fall prediction in the elderly requiring long-term care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiya, Mizuki; Murata, Shin; Otao, Hiroshi; Ihara, Takehiko; Mizota, Katsuhiko; Asami, Toyoko

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study aimed to verify the usefulness of a 50-m round walking test developed as an assessment method for walking ability in the elderly. [Subjects] The subjects were 166 elderly requiring long-term care individuals (mean age, 80.5 years). [Methods] In order to evaluate the factors that had affected falls in the subjects in the previous year, we performed the 50-m round walking test, functional reach test, one-leg standing test, and 5-m walking test and measured grip strength and quadriceps strength. [Results] The 50-m round walking test was selected as a variable indicating fall risk based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis. The cutoff value of the 50-m round walking test for determining fall risk was 0.66 m/sec. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64. The sensitivity of the cutoff value was 65.7%, the specificity was 63.6%, the positive predictive value was 55.0%, the negative predictive value was 73.3%, and the accuracy was 64.5%. [Conclusion] These results suggest that the 50-m round walking test is a potentially useful parameter for the determination of fall risk in the elderly requiring long-term care. PMID:26834327

  7. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Philip [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); McMaster University, Population Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine, and Department of Radiology, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); Mani, Venkatesh [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Kallend, David [The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ (United States); Rudd, James H.F. [University of Cambridge, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Fayad, Zahi A. [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Hess CSM Building Floor TMII, Rm S1-104, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States)

    2017-01-15

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  8. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joseph, Philip; Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed; Mani, Venkatesh; Kallend, David; Rudd, James H.F.; Fayad, Zahi A.

    2017-01-01

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  9. DOP prediction over Egypt from SP3 file for long-term

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aly M. El-naggar

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available An important error source in satellite surveying deals with the geometry of the visible satellite constellation at the time of observation. This is similar to the situation in traditional surveys, where the geometry of the network of observed ground stations affects the accuracies of computed positions. Dilution of precision (DOP is an indicator of the quality of the geometry of the visible satellite constellation. The value of DOP is very important during observation sessions, because many projects have special requirements regarding the positioning accuracy. These special requirements will force the surveyor to hold the survey mission until the value of dilution of precision at the time of observation meets the project’s requirements. This means that the GPS mission planning is an essential task before any GPS survey. The task of this paper is related to The GPS mission planning which the values of dilution of precisions and number of visible satellites should be predicted for the observation points, this task should determine the best observation periods which meet the project requirements. This paper explore the process of DOP prediction for long term by using Standard Product 3 (SP3 file and attempt to mathematically or statistically bound the navigation error. In this paper the actual orbital period of GPS satellite was defined and the DOP contour map over Egypt was constructed. By using these contour maps one can predict the DOP by knowing the city name.

  10. Hybrid NOTES transvaginal cholecystectomy: operative and long-term results after 18 cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugliese, Raffaele; Forgione, Antonello; Sansonna, Fabio; Ferrari, Giovanni Carlo; Di Lernia, Stefano; Magistro, Carmelo

    2010-03-01

    Natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery (NOTES) is a novel technique that aims at reducing or abolishing skin incisions and potentially also postoperative pain. The purpose of this study was to analyse operative and long-term results of a series of hybrid transvaginal cholecystectomy. Between July 2007 and May 2009, transvaginal NOTES cholecystectomy for symptomatic cholelithiasis was performed by a hybrid technique in 18 women (mean age 54 years), including four women with a body mass index >30 kg/m(2). Dissection was conducted in the first four cases by a round-tip unipolar electrode (UE) introduced through the operative channel of the endoscope coming from the vagina and in the last 14 cases by a ultrasonic scalpel (US) introduced through a 5-mm abdominal port. The short-term outcomes and the long-term results of the two methods were compared. The transvaginal approach entailed no intraoperative complication and no conversion. The overall mean duration of procedures was 75 min (range 40-190). In the first four cases (UE), the operating time was 148 min (range 140-190), whilst in the last 14 (US), it was considerably shorter, 53 min (range 40-60, p < 0.01). We experienced one biliary leak in the UE group, whilst morbidity with US was nil (p < 0.005). The biliary leak healed in 7 days with nasobiliary drainage. No other complications were encountered in either group. The mean follow-up was 12 months (range 1-22), and none of the patients has complained of dyspareunia or other colpotomy-related complications so far. Until specifically designed endoscopic tools are available for NOTES, the hybrid technique with US dissection conducted through a 5-mm port should be preferred in transvaginal cholecystectomy in order to shorten the duration of surgery and make this approach effective, safe and reproducible. After a mean follow-up of 1 year, none of our patients has complained of any problem related to transvaginal approach.

  11. Predicting long-term sickness absence and early retirement pension from self-reported work ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sell, Lea; Bültmann, Ute; Rugulies, Reiner Ernst

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market.......The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market....

  12. Long-term results of aortic valve-sparing operations in patients with Marfan syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Tirone E; Armstrong, Sue; Maganti, Manjula; Colman, Jack; Bradley, Timothy J

    2009-10-01

    The appropriateness of aortic valve-sparing operations in patients with Marfan syndrome has been questioned. This study examines the long-term results of these operations in patients with Marfan syndrome. From 1988 to 2006, 103 consecutive patients with Marfan syndrome (mean age, 37 +/- 12 years) and aortic root aneurysm had aortic valve-sparing operations. Emergency surgery was performed in 11 patients: 8 for acute type A aortic dissection and 3 for unexplained persistent chest pain. Fourteen patients also had mitral valve surgery. The technique of aortic valve reimplantation was used in 77 patients, and aortic root remodeling was used in 26 patients. Patients were followed prospectively and underwent annual echocardiographic studies. The mean follow-up was 7.3 +/- 4.2 years and 100% complete. There was 1 operative death and 5 late deaths. Four of the 6 deaths were due to complications of aortic dissections. The patients' survival at 15 years was 87.2% compared with 95.6% for the general population of Ontario matched for age and sex. Seven patients had important aortic insufficiency: 4 mild to moderate, 2 moderate, and 1 moderate to severe. Freedom from greater than mild aortic insufficiency at 15 years was 79.2%. Three patients, all after aortic root remodeling, had aortic valve replacement, 2 for aortic insufficiency and 1 for endocarditis. At the most recent follow-up, 97 patients were alive: 86 were in functional class I, and 11 were in functional class II. Aortic valve-sparing operations provided excellent clinical outcomes in this series of patients with Marfan syndrome. Postoperatively, complications of aortic dissections were the leading cause of death.

  13. Containment long-term operational integrity--a 1988 status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sammataro, R.F.

    1988-01-01

    Design and in-service codes and standards provide a comprehensive set of requirements for containment design, construction, inspection, testing and repair. Metal and concrete containments must be designed, fabricated, constructed, inspected, tested and maintained to quality standards commensurate with the importance of the safety function to be performed. Periodic integrated leak rate tests are required to assure that containments continue to meet allowable leakage limits. Although overall performance has been quite good to date, several major containment aging and degradation mechanisms have been identified. Two pilot plant life extension studies, one for a boiling water reactor and one for a pressurized water reactor, serve as models for extending the operational integrity of present containments in the United States. Research and testing programs for determining the ultimate pressure capacity and failure mechanisms for containments under severe loading conditions and studied for extending the life of current plants beyond the present 40 year licensed lifetime are underway. This paper presents an overview of containment designs in the USA and a discussion of the regulatory and ASME Code requirements for the design, construction, in-service inspection, testing and repair for containments. Findings for containments from the pilot plant life extension studies and the ongoing containment research and testing programs are also discussed. The regulatory and ASME Code requirements for design, construction, in-service inspection and periodic integrated leakage testing together with recommendations from the plant life extension studies and containment integrity research and testing provide a basis for continued containment long-term operational integrity

  14. Economic Evaluation of Long-term Operation of NPPs in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kihyun; Kim, Taeryong; Jeong, Cheolwook

    2015-01-01

    It is inevitable for Korean government to establish the energy policy which can support the energy security and independence since Korea depends on approximately 97% of energy resources from abroad. We selected nuclear power plant to overcome the problem. Since Kori unit 1 began operating as a first nuclear power plant, nuclear power generation has been played a big role in providing about 30% of total electricity supply in Korea. Many researchers and economists have already assessed about safety and economic aspects of the nuclear power generation. This paper will deal with the economic benefits for the contribution of nuclear power generation especially long-term operation of NPPs to the Korean society. In this paper, the economic analysis of the LTO for the existing power plant less than and equal to 1,000MW compared to no extension was investigated. The selected durations of LTO are 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years beyond design life. The result from the analysis is that LTO of NPPs is more beneficial than observance of its design life. In the aspects of utility's electricity sales increase and reducing the new construction of APR1400 NPPs with cost savings, LTO is one of the best option in order to provide electric energy with Korean society

  15. Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun-Young Kim

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in diameter (PM10 concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly PM10 data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM10 concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R2 statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average PM10 concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m3 (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively. Cross-validated R2 values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R2 values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R2 (0.36 than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM10 source characteristics.

  16. Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

    2012-05-22

    No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

  17. Taylor Series-Based Long-Term Creep-Life Prediction of Alloy 617

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Woo Gon; Kim, Yong Wan; Park, Jae Young; Kim, Soen Jin

    2010-01-01

    In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617

  18. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  19. Identifying the limitations of conventional biofiltration of diffuse methane emissions at long-term operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Cuervo, S; Hernández, J; Omil, F

    2016-08-01

    There is growing international concern about the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly CO2 and methane. The emissions of methane derived from human activities are associated with large flows and very low concentrations, such as those emitted from landfills and wastewater treatment plants, among others. The present work was focused on the biological methane degradation at diffuse concentrations (0.2% vv(-1)) in a conventional biofilter using a mixture of compost, perlite and bark chips as carrier. An extensive characterization of the process was carried out at long-term operation (250 days) in a fully monitored pilot plant, achieving stable conditions during the entire period. Operational parameters such as waterings, nitrogen addition and inlet loads and contact time influences were evaluated. Obtained results indicate that empty bed residence times within 4-8 min are crucial to maximize elimination rates. Waterings and the type of nitrogen supplied in the nutrient solution (ammonia or nitrate) have a strong impact on the biofilter performance. The better results compatible with a stable operation were achieved using nitrate, with elimination capacities up to 7.6 ± 1.1 g CH4 m(-3 )h(-1). The operation at low inlet concentrations (IC) implied that removal rates obtained were quite limited (ranging 3-8 g CH4 m(-3 )h(-1)); however, these results could be significantly increased (up to 20.6 g CH4 m(-3) h(-1)) at higher IC, which indicates that the mass transfer from the gas to the liquid layer surrounding the biofilm is a key limitation of the process.

  20. Ageing management and knowledge base for safe long-term operation of japanese light water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sekimura, N.

    2008-01-01

    There are 55 operating commercial light water reactor plants (32 BWRs and 23 PWRs) in Japan. Twelve (12) plants have been operating for more than 30 years. Utility companies are required to perform an 'Ageing Management Technical Assessment' be-fore the end of 30 years operation of each plant. The assessments for each plant have been evaluated by the Nuclear and Industry Safety Agency (NISA) of the Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (WTI) for these 12 plants. The Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organisation (JNES) has compiled Technical Review Manuals for six major degradation phenomena for the evaluation of Ageing Management Technical Assessment. A 'Road-map for Ageing and Plant Life Management' was established in 2005 by the Special Committee in the Atomic Energy Society of Japan under the commission from the JNES. Within the framework of the road-map, the major research and development fields are divided into the following four categories: 1) engineering information systems; 2) research and development of technologies for inspection, evaluation and repair of the components and materials; 3) development of codes and standards; 4) synthesised maintenance engineering. Continuous revision of the 'Strategy Maps for Ageing Management and Safe Long-term Operation' has been performed under the Coordinating Committee of Ageing Management to promote research and development activities by industries, government and academia, effectively and efficiently. Systematic development of the information basis for database and knowledge-base has been undertaken in addition to the development of codes and standards by academic societies through intensive domestic safety research collaborations and international collaboration. (author)

  1. Chest HRCT signs predict deaths in long-term follow-up among asbestos exposed workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, Tapio, E-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FI-00250 Helsinki (Finland); Oksa, Panu, E-mail: panu.oksa@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Uimalankatu 1, FI-33101 Tampere (Finland)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Much lung and pleural pathology is found in chest CT studies. • HRCT signs were screened and subsequent mortality followed up. • Several signs were related to all-cause and disease specific deaths. • The HRCT classification system used was able to predict mortality. • Secondary preventive strategies should be developed for patients with such signs. - Abstract: Objectives: To study associations between chest HRCT signs and subsequent deaths in long-term follow-up. Methods: Lung and pleural signs of 633 asbestos exposed workers (age 45–86, mean 65) screened with HRCT were recorded by using the International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory Diseases (ICOERD) system, which contains detailed instructions for use and reference images. Subsequent mortality was checked from the national register. Cox regression adjusted for covariates (age, sex, BMI, asbestos exposure, pack-years) was used to explore the relations between HRCT signs and all-cause deaths, cardiovascular and benign respiratory deaths, and deaths from neoplasms – all according to the ICD-10 diagnostic system. Results: The follow-up totalled 5271.9 person-years (mean 8.3 y/person, range .04–10.3). 119 deaths were reported. Irregular/linear opacities, honeycombing, emphysema, large opacities, visceral pleural abnormalities and bronchial wall thickening were all significantly related to all-cause deaths. Most of these signs were associated also with deaths from neoplasms and benign respiratory disease. Deaths from cardiovascular disease were predicted by emphysema and visceral pleural abnormalities. Conclusions: Several HRCT signs predicted deaths. Careful attention should be paid on subjects with radiological signs predictive of deaths and new secondary preventive strategies developed. This calls for further focused studies among different populations.

  2. Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically amended soils using the CQESTR model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaza, Cesar; Polo, Alfredo [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Ciencias Agrarias; Gollany, Hero T. [Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, OR (United States). USDA-ARS; Baldoni, Guido; Ciavatta, Claudio [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dept. of Agroenvironmental Sciences and Technologies

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: The CQESTR model is a process-based C model recently developed to simulate soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and uses readily available or easily measurable input parameters. The current version of CQESTR (v. 2.0) has been validated successfully with a number of datasets from agricultural sites in North America but still needs to be tested in other geographic areas and soil types under diverse organic management systems. Materials and methods: We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR to simulate long-term (34 years) soil organic C (SOC) changes in a SOM-depleted European soil either unamended or amended with solid manure, liquid manure, or crop residue. Results and discussion: Measured SOC levels declined over the study period in the unamended soil, remained constant in the soil amended with crop residues, and tended to increase in the soils amended with manure, especially with solid manure. Linear regression analysis of measured SOC contents and CQESTR predictions resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.626 (P < 0.001) and a slope and an intercept not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (95% confidence level). The mean squared deviation and root mean square error were relatively small. Simulated values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the measured SOC, and predicted errors were mainly associated with data scattering. Conclusions: The CQESTR model was shown to predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the organic C dynamics in the soils examined. The CQESTR performance, however, could be improved by adding an additional parameter to differentiate between pre-decomposed organic amendments with varying degrees of stability. (orig.)

  3. Symptoms of delirium predict incident delirium in older long-term care residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Martin G; McCusker, Jane; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

    2013-06-01

    Detection of long-term care (LTC) residents at risk of delirium may lead to prevention of this disorder. The primary objective of this study was to determine if the presence of one or more Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) core symptoms of delirium at baseline assessment predicts incident delirium. Secondary objectives were to determine if the number or the type of symptoms predict incident delirium. The study was a secondary analysis of data collected for a prospective study of delirium among older residents of seven LTC facilities in Montreal and Quebec City, Canada. The Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE), CAM, Delirium Index (DI), Hierarchic Dementia Scale, Barthel Index, and Cornell Scale for Depression were completed at baseline. The MMSE, CAM, and DI were repeated weekly for six months. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine if baseline symptoms predict incident delirium. Of 273 residents, 40 (14.7%) developed incident delirium. Mean (SD) time to onset of delirium was 10.8 (7.4) weeks. When one or more CAM core symptoms were present at baseline, the Hazard Ratio (HR) for incident delirium was 3.5 (95% CI = 1.4, 8.9). The HRs for number of symptoms present ranged from 2.9 (95% CI = 1.0, 8.3) for one symptom to 3.8 (95% CI = 1.3, 11.0) for three symptoms. The HR for one type of symptom, fluctuation, was 2.2 (95% CI = 1.2, 4.2). The presence of CAM core symptoms at baseline assessment predicts incident delirium in older LTC residents. These findings have potentially important implications for clinical practice and research in LTC settings.

  4. Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaebeom Lee

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

  5. Long-Term Deflection Prediction from Computer Vision-Measured Data History for High-Speed Railway Bridges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jaebeom; Lee, Kyoung-Chan; Lee, Young-Joo

    2018-05-09

    Management of the vertical long-term deflection of a high-speed railway bridge is a crucial factor to guarantee traffic safety and passenger comfort. Therefore, there have been efforts to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on physics-based models representing various influential factors to vertical deflection such as concrete creep and shrinkage. However, it is not an easy task because the vertical deflection of a railway bridge generally involves several sources of uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic method that employs a Gaussian process to construct a model to predict the vertical deflection of a railway bridge based on actual vision-based measurement and temperature. To deal with the sources of uncertainty which may cause prediction errors, a Gaussian process is modeled with multiple kernels and hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are identified through the Gaussian process regression using training data, the proposed method provides a 95% prediction interval as well as a predictive mean about the vertical deflection of the bridge. The proposed method is applied to an arch bridge under operation for high-speed trains in South Korea. The analysis results obtained from the proposed method show good agreement with the actual measurement data on the vertical deflection of the example bridge, and the prediction results can be utilized for decision-making on railway bridge maintenance.

  6. Economic aspects of long term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lokhov, A.

    2015-01-01

    In 2011, 289 reactors in the world were older than 25 years, and only 45 new units were connected to the grid in 2000-2011. Without life extensions, nuclear capacity would thus fall dramatically in the next decade. In this series of slides the author reviews the legal limits and possibilities for long term operations (LTO) of nuclear reactors in the world. It appears 2 basic regulatory approaches to LTO: the license renewal and the periodic safety review. The typical investment in LTO is in the range of 500-1100 US dollar per kWe. The additional costs of post-Fukushima modifications are about 10 to 20% of initially projected LTO investment. It appears that life extension of more than 10 years is profitable. There are several uncertainties that can influence LTO programmes such as public acceptance, changes in national policies, changes in the prices of other energies and technological issues. The specific investment in LTO is detailed for Belgium, Hungary, the USA and Russia. (A.C.)

  7. Mortality and recurrence rate after pressure ulcer operation for elderly long-term bedridden patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwahara, Masamitsu; Tada, Hideyuki; Mashiba, Kumi; Yurugi, Satoshi; Iioka, Hiroshi; Niitsuma, Katsunori; Yasuda, Yukiko

    2005-06-01

    We operated on 16 sacral pressure ulcers in elderly and long-term residential patients who were immobile as a result of cerebral vascular disease. The mean age of patients was 76 years. Eight ulcers were treated with local fascial flaps and 8 by simple closure. The follow-up period was from 1 to 4 years. Recurrence and mortality rates were examined retrospectively. In the 16 patients, recurrence occurred in 37.5%, and 43.8% died without recurrence. The recurrence rate was 37.5% for local fascial flaps and 37.5% for simple closure. Overall mortality was 68.8% in the follow-up period. Because postoperative death was common, we should not only focus on reducing local pressure but also pay attention to any underlying disease. Because of this high mortality rate, the least invasive procedure possible should be used. Because the recurrence rate of simple closure was the same as for local fascial flaps, simple closure should be considered as a reconstructive method.

  8. Lightning climatology over Jakarta, Indonesia, based on long-term surface operational, satellite, and campaign observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Shuichi; Wu, Peiming; Yamanaka, Manabu D.; Hattori, Miki; Hamada, Jun-Ichi; Arbain, Ardhi A.; Lestari, Sopia; Sulistyowati, Reni; Syamsudin, Fadli

    2016-04-01

    Lightning frequency over Indonesian Maritime Continent (MC) is quite high (Petersen and Rutledge 2001, Christian et al. 2003, Takayabu 2006, etc). In particular, Bogor (south of Jakarta, west Jawa) had 322 days of lightning in one year (Guinness Book in 1988). Lightning causes serious damage on nature and society over the MC; forest fore, power outage, inrush/surge currents on many kinds of electronics. Lightning climatology and meso-scale characteristics of thunderstorm over the MC, in particular over Jakarta, where social damage is quite serious, were examined. We made Statistical analysis of lightning and thunderstorm based on TRMM Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) together with long-term operational surface observation data (SYNOP) in terms of diurnal, intraseasonal, monsoonal, and interannual variations. In addition, we carried out a campaign observation in February 2015 in Bogor to obtain meso-scale structure and dynamics of thunderstorm over Jakarta to focus on graupel and other ice phase particles inside by using an X-band dual-polarimetric (DP) radar. Recently, Virts et al. (2013a, b) showed comprehensive lightning climatology based on the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). However, they also reported problems with its detection efficiency (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research) grant number 25350515 and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) 7th Research Announcement (RA).

  9. BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

    2015-01-01

    The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan–Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy

  10. Long-term response to recombinant human growth hormone treatment: a new predictive mathematical method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migliaretti, G; Ditaranto, S; Guiot, C; Vannelli, S; Matarazzo, P; Cappello, N; Stura, I; Cavallo, F

    2018-07-01

    Recombinant GH has been offered to GH-deficient (GHD) subjects for more than 30 years, in order to improve height and growth velocity in children and to enhance metabolic effects in adults. The aim of our work is to describe the long-term effect of rhGH treatment in GHD pediatric patients, suggesting a growth prediction model. A homogeneous database is defined for diagnosis and treatment modalities, based on GHD patients afferent to Hospital Regina Margherita in Turin (Italy). In this study, 232 GHD patients are selected (204 idiopathic GHD and 28 organic GHD). Each measure is shown in terms of mean with relative standard deviations (SD) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). To estimate the final height of each patient on the basis of few measures, a mathematical growth prediction model [based on Gompertzian function and a mixed method based on the radial basis functions (RBFs) and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) models] was performed. The results seem to highlight the benefits of an early start of treatment, further confirming what is suggested by the literature. Generally, the RBF-PSO method shows a good reliability in the prediction of the final height. Indeed, RMSE is always lower than 4, i.e., in average the forecast will differ at most of 4 cm to the real value. In conclusion, the large and accurate database of Italian GHD patients allowed us to assess the rhGH treatment efficacy and compare the results with those obtained in other Countries. Moreover, we proposed and validated a new mathematical model forecasting the expected final height after therapy which was validated on our cohort.

  11. Thyroiditis de Quervain. Are there predictive factors for long-term hormone-replacement?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenke, S; Klett, R; Braun, S; Zimny, M

    2013-01-01

    Subacute thyroiditis is a usually self-limiting disease of the thyroid. However, approximately 0.5-15% of the patients require permanent thyroxine substitution. Aim was to determine predictive factors for the necessity of long-term hormone-replacement (LTH). We retrospectively reviewed the records of 72 patients with subacute thyroiditis. Morphological and serological parameters as well as type of therapy were tested as predictive factors of consecutive hypothyroidism. Mean age was 49 ± 11 years, f/m-ratio was 4.5 : 1. Thyroid pain and signs of hyperthyroidism were leading symptoms. Initial subclinical or overt hyperthyroidism was found in 20% and 37%, respectively. Within six months after onset 15% and 1.3% of the patients developed subclinical or overt hypothyroidism, respectively. At latest follow-up 26% were classified as liable to LTH. At onset the thyroid was enlarged in 64%, and at latest follow-up in 8.3%, with a significant reduction of the thyroid volume after three months. At the endpoint the thyroid volume was less in patients in the LTH group compared with the non-LTH group (41.7% vs. 57.2% of sex-adjusted upper norm, p = 0.041). Characteristic ultrasonographic features occurred in 74% of the patients in both lobes. Serological and morphological parameters as well as type of therapy were not related with the need of LTH. In this study the proportion of patients who received LTH was 26%. At the endpoint these patients had a lower thyroid volume compared with euthyroid patients. No predictive factors for LTH were found.

  12. Determining effective forecast horizons for multi-purpose reservoirs with short- and long-term operating objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchner, Jakob; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    selection technique. The technique determines the most informative combination in a multi-variate regression model to the optimal reservoir releases based on perfect information at a fixed objective trade-off. The improved reservoir operation is evaluated against optimal reservoir operation conditioned upon perfect information on future disturbances and basic reservoir operation using only the day of the year and the reservoir level. Different objective trade-offs are selected for analyzing resulting differences in improved reservoir operation and selected forecast variables and horizons. For comparison, the effective streamflow forecast horizon determined by the ISA framework is benchmarked against the performances obtained with a deterministic model predictive control (MPC) optimization scheme. Both the ISA framework and the MPC optimization scheme are applied to the real-world case study of Lake Como, Italy, using perfect streamflow forecast information. The principal operation targets for Lake Como are flood control and downstream water supply which makes its operation a suitable case study. Results provide critical feedback to reservoir operators on the use of long-term streamflow forecasts and to the hydro-meteorological forecasting community with respect to the forecast horizon needed from reliable streamflow forecasts.

  13. Could infarct location predict the long-term functional outcome in childhood arterial ischemic stroke?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio López-Espejo

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To explore the influence of infarct location on long-term functional outcome following a first-ever arterial ischemic stroke (AIS in non-neonate children. Method: The MRIs of 39 children with AIS (median age 5.38 years; 36% girls; mean follow-up time 5.87 years were prospectively evaluated. Infarct location was classified as the absence or presence of subcortical involvement. Functional outcome was measured using the modified Rankin scale (mRS for children after the follow-up assessment. We utilized multivariate logistic regression models to estimate the odds ratios (ORs for the outcome while adjusting for age, sex, infarct size and middle cerebral artery territory involvement (significance < 0.05. Results: Both infarcts ≥ 4% of total brain volume (OR 9.92; CI 1.76 – 55.9; p 0.009 and the presence of subcortical involvement (OR 8.36; CI 1.76 – 53.6; p 0.025 independently increased the risk of marked functional impairment (mRS 3 to 5. Conclusion: Infarct extension and location can help predict the extent of disability after childhood AIS.

  14. Bone mineral density before and after OLT: long-term follow-up and predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guichelaar, Maureen M J; Kendall, Rebecca; Malinchoc, Michael; Hay, J Eileen

    2006-09-01

    Fracturing after liver transplantation (OLT) occurs due to the combination of preexisting low bone mineral density (BMD) and early posttransplant bone loss, the risk factors for which are poorly defined. The prevalence and predictive factors for hepatic osteopenia and osteoporosis, posttransplant bone loss, and subsequent bone gain were studied by the long-term posttransplant follow-up of 360 consecutive adult patients with end-stage primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Only 20% of patients with advanced PBC or PSC have normal bone mass. Risk factors for low spinal BMD are low body mass index, older age, postmenopausal status, muscle wasting, high alkaline phosphatase and low serum albumin. A high rate of spinal bone loss occurred in the first 4 posttransplant months (annual rate of 16%) especially in those with younger age, PSC, higher pretransplant bone density, no inflammatory bowel disease, shorter duration of liver disease, current smoking, and ongoing cholestasis at 4 months. Factors favoring spinal bone gain from 4 to 24 months after transplantation were lower baseline and/or 4-month bone density, premenopausal status, lower cumulative glucocorticoids, no ongoing cholestasis, and higher levels of vitamin D and parathyroid hormone. Bone mass therefore improves most in patients with lowest pretransplant BMD who undergo successful transplantation with normal hepatic function and improved gonadal and nutritional status. Patients transplanted most recently have improved bone mass before OLT, and although bone loss still occurs early after OLT, these patients also have a greater recovery in BMD over the years following OLT.

  15. Latent profiles of nonresidential father engagement six years after divorce predict long-term offspring outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa J; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2015-01-01

    This study examined profiles of nonresidential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) 6 to 8 years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, 9 years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of nonresidential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed 9 years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes 9 years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother's remarriage, mother's income, and gender, age, and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems 9 years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed.

  16. Deviations in energy sensing predict long-term weight change in overweight Native Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basolo, Alessio; Votruba, Susanne B; Heinitz, Sascha; Krakoff, Jonathan; Piaggi, Paolo

    2018-05-01

    Energy expenditure (EE), as reflective of body energy demand, has been proposed to be the key driver of food intake, possibly influencing weight change in humans. Variation in this energy-sensing link (overeating relative to weight-maintaining energy requirements) may lead to weight gain over time. Sixty-one overweight otherwise healthy Native Americans (age: 34.0 ± 7.9 years, body fat: 39.7 ± 9.5%, 36 males) were admitted to our clinical research unit for measurements of body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and 24-h EE and respiratory quotient (RQ) in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during energy balance and weight stability. Following this, ad libitum food intake was assessed for three days using computerized vending machines. Body weight change under unrestricted free-living conditions was assessed at an outpatient follow-up visit (median follow-up time = 1.7 years). Total ad libitum food intake (3-day average) was positively associated with 24-h EE (r = 0.44, p energy requirements can be assessed and predicts long-term weight gain, suggesting that variation in energy sensing may influence appetite by favoring overeating thus promoting obesity development. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion

  18. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

  19. Fracture Toughness Evaluation of Kori-1 RPV Beltline Weld for a Long-Term Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Bong-Sang; Kim, Min-Chul; Ahn, Sang-Bok; Kim, Byung-Chul; Hong, Jun-Hwa

    2007-01-01

    Irradiation embrittlement of RPV (reactor pressure vessel) material is the most important aging issue for a long-term operation of nuclear power plants. KORI unit 1, which is the first PWR in Korea, is approaching its initial licensing life of 30 years. In order to operate the reactor for another 10 years and more, it should be demonstrated that the irradiation embrittlement of the reactor will be adequately managed by ensuring that the fracture toughness properties have a certain level of the safety margin. The current regulation requires Charpy V-notch impact data through conventional surveillance tests. It is based on the assumption that Charpy impact test results are well correlated with the fracture toughness properties of many engineering steels. However, Charpy V-notch impact data may not be adequate to estimate the fracture toughness of certain materials, such as Linde 80 welds. During the last decade, a tremendous number of fracture toughness data on many RPV steels have been produced in accordance with the new standard test method, the so-called master curve method. ASTM E1921 represents a revolutionary advance in characterizing fracture toughness of RPV steels, since it permits establishing the ductile to brittle transition portion of the fracture toughness curve with direct measurements on a relatively small number of relatively small specimens, such as pre-cracked Charpy specimens. Actual fracture toughness data from many different RPV steels revealed that the Charpy test estimations are generally conservative with the exception of a few cases. Recent regulation codes in USA permit the master curve fracture toughness methodology in evaluating an irradiation embrittlement of commercial nuclear reactor vessels

  20. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tech-nique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with

  1. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  2. Pediatric Bulbar and Posterior Urethral Injuries: Operative Outcomes and Long-Term Follow-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trachta, Jan; Moravek, Jiri; Kriz, Jan; Padr, Radek; Skaba, Richard

    2016-02-01

    stress incontinence. All patients had uroflowmetry maximum flow above 20 mL/s on their last follow-up except for two (12 and 15 mL/s). None have any lower urinary tract dysfunction symptoms in adulthood; one suffers from mild ED and two report moderate ED due to penile shortening. Delayed end-to-end anastomosis for pediatric urethral injury is a safe operational option. However, high rate of short-term complications and reoperations should be expected. Penile shortening is one of the most severe long-term complications. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Whipple's operation for carcinoma of the pancreatic head and the ampullary region. Short-and long-term results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, M B; Banner, Jytte; Rokkjaer, M

    1998-01-01

    In this retrospective review short- and long-term perspectives have been evaluated for 108 patients who, during 1982 through 1992, had Whipple's operation performed for carcinoma of the pancreatic head (PC, n=63) or the ampullary region (AC, n=45). In 24 patients the operation was not radical (21...

  4. Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO missions observations and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krivanek, Robert, E-mail: r.krivanek@iaea.org [Operational Safety Section, Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna 1400 (Austria); Havel, Radim, E-mail: Radim.Havel@gmail.com [RESCO, Nitranska 894/8, 10100 Praha 10 (Czech Republic)

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • During the period 2005–mid 2015, 22 SALTO peer review missions and 2 LTO modules of OSART missions were conducted. • Analysis of these mission results and main trends observed are gathered in this paper. • The main task of the assessment performed was to evaluate and give a weight to the evaluation. • Results of SALTO follow-up missions as well as OSART follow-up missions with LTO module are summarized. • The SALTO peer review service is strongly recommended for NPPs prior to entering LTO period. - Abstract: This paper builds on paper “Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO peer review service and its results”, NED8070, presented in Nuclear Engineering and Design in September 2014. This paper presents the analysis of SALTO mission results and main trends observed so that all the most important results of SALTO missions are gathered in one paper. The paper also includes the results of LTO module reviews performed in the frame of OSART missions where applicable as well as follow-up missions. This paper is divided in three main Sections. Section 1 provides brief introduction to SALTO peer review service. Section 2 provides overview of performed SALTO missions and LTO modules of OSART missions performed between 2005 and mid-2015. Section 3 summarizes the most significant observations and trends resulting from the missions between 2005 and mid-2015. Section 4 summarizes the results of SALTO follow-up missions as well as OSART follow-up missions.

  5. Psychrophilic dry anaerobic digestion of dairy cow feces: Long-term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massé, Daniel I., E-mail: Daniel.masse@agr.gc.ca; Cata Saady, Noori M.

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • Psychrophilic dry anaerobic digestion (PDAD) of cow feces (CF) is feasible. • PDAD of CF is as efficient as mesophilic and thermophilic AD at TCL 21 days. • CF (13–16% TS at OLR 5.0 g TCOD{sub fed} kg{sup −1} inoculum d{sup −1}) yielded 222 ± 27 {sub N}L CH{sub 4} kg{sup −1} VS fed. - Abstract: This paper reports experimental results which demonstrate psychrophilic dry anaerobic digestion of cow feces during long-term operation in sequence batch reactor. Cow feces (13–16% total solids) has been anaerobically digested in 12 successive cycles (252 days) at 21 days treatment cycle length (TCL) and temperature of 20 °C using psychrotrophic anaerobic mixed culture. An average specific methane yield (SMY) of 184.9 ± 24.0, 189.9 ± 27.3, and 222 ± 27.7 {sub N}L CH{sub 4} kg{sup −1} of VS fed has been achieved at an organic loading rate of 3.0, 4.0, and 5.0 g TCOD kg{sup −1} inoculum d{sup −1} and TCL of 21 days, respectively. The corresponding substrate to inoculum ratio (SIR) was 0.39 ± 0.06, 0.48 ± .02, 0.53 ± 0.05, respectively. Average methane production rate of 10 ± 1.4 {sub N}L CH{sub 4} kg{sup −1} VS fed d{sup −1} has been obtained. The low concentration of volatile fatty acids indicated that hydrolysis was the reaction limiting step.

  6. Chronic sleep deprivation differentially affects short and long-term operant memory in Aplysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Harini C; Noakes, Eric J; Lyons, Lisa C

    2016-10-01

    The induction, formation and maintenance of memory represent dynamic processes modulated by multiple factors including the circadian clock and sleep. Chronic sleep restriction has become common in modern society due to occupational and social demands. Given the impact of cognitive impairments associated with sleep deprivation, there is a vital need for a simple animal model in which to study the interactions between chronic sleep deprivation and memory. We used the marine mollusk Aplysia californica, with its simple nervous system, nocturnal sleep pattern and well-characterized learning paradigms, to assess the effects of two chronic sleep restriction paradigms on short-term (STM) and long-term (LTM) associative memory. The effects of sleep deprivation on memory were evaluated using the operant learning paradigm, learning that food is inedible, in which the animal associates a specific netted seaweed with failed swallowing attempts. We found that two nights of 6h sleep deprivation occurring during the first or last half of the night inhibited both STM and LTM. Moreover, the impairment in STM persisted for more than 24h. A milder, prolonged sleep deprivation paradigm consisting of 3 consecutive nights of 4h sleep deprivation also blocked STM, but had no effect on LTM. These experiments highlight differences in the sensitivity of STM and LTM to chronic sleep deprivation. Moreover, these results establish Aplysia as a valid model for studying the interactions between chronic sleep deprivation and associative memory paving the way for future studies delineating the mechanisms through which sleep restriction affects memory formation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Long-term prediction of corrosion damage in nuclear waste systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hidekazu Asano; Feron, Damien; Gens, Robert; Padovani, Cristiano; Naoki Taniguchi

    2014-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows: The Fifth International Workshop on Long-Term Prediction of Corrosion Damage in Nuclear Waste Systems was held at the Taisetsu Crystal Hall in Asahikawa, Hokkaido, Japan from October 6 to 10, 2013, following the four previous successful workshops (Cadarache, France, 2001; Nice, France, 2004; Pennsylvania State University, USA, 2007 and Bruges, Belgium, 2010). It was organised by the Japan Society of Corrosion Engineering (JSCE) and supported by the European Federation of Corrosion (EFC): Nuclear Corrosion Working Party (WP4) as of EFC event No.360. Furthermore, it was supported by the Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Environment (NUCE) of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) and The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers (JSME). Twenty nine (29) oral presentations were distributed among eleven (11) sessions covering a broad range of subjects. Another twenty eight (28) studies were presented at a poster session. A total of sixty seven (67) participants from twelve (12) countries attended the event. The presentations and the following discussion provided contextual information about the state of some national programmes and covered in detail a range of experimental and modelling studies aimed at evaluating the corrosion behaviour of a range of candidate materials and designs for the storage and disposal of radioactive wastes considered across the globe. These included modelling studies aimed at evaluating the durability of container designs for high level waste (HLW), spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and intermediate level waste (ILW), experimental studies of the corrosion behaviour of copper, carbon steel, and stainless steel in conditions relevant to storage (atmospheric) or disposal (near neutral or alkaline), as well as studies of archaeological artifacts and natural analogues aimed at supporting long-term predictions. Specific sessions were dedicated to microbial induced corrosion (MIC) and to the corrosion properties of

  8. Predicting nitrogen and acidity effects on long-term dynamics of dissolved organic matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, E.C.; Tipping, E.; Posch, M.; Oulehle, F.; Cooper, D.M.; Jones, T.G.; Burden, A.; Hall, J.; Evans, C.D.

    2014-01-01

    Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes may relate to changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution. We integrated existing models of vegetation growth and soil organic matter turnover, acid–base dynamics, and organic matter mobility, to form the ‘MADOC’ model. After calibrating parameters governing interactions between pH and DOC dissolution using control treatments on two field experiments, MADOC reproduced responses of pH and DOC to additions of acidifying and alkalising solutions. Long-term trends in a range of acid waters were also reproduced. The model suggests that the sustained nature of observed DOC increases can best be explained by a continuously replenishing potentially-dissolved carbon pool, rather than dissolution of a large accumulated store. The simulations informed the development of hypotheses that: DOC increase is related to plant productivity increase as well as to pH change; DOC increases due to nitrogen pollution will become evident, and be sustained, after soil pH has stabilised. -- Highlights: • A model of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was developed by integrating simple models • MADOC simulates effects of sulphur and nitrogen deposition and interactions with pH. • Responses of DOC and pH to experimental acidification and alkalisation were reproduced. • The persistence of DOC increases will depend on continued supply of potential DOC. • DOC fluxes are likely determined by plant productivity as well as soil solution pH. -- Effects of changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution on dissolved organic carbon fluxes are predicted by simulating soil organic matter cycling, the release of potentially-dissolved carbon, and interactions with soil pH

  9. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2018-01-01

    LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

  10. Nuclear Waste Disposal and Strategies for Predicting Long-Term Performance of Material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wicks, G.G.

    2001-01-01

    Ceramics have been an important part of the nuclear community for many years. On December 2, 1942, an historic event occurred under the West Stands of Stagg Field, at the University of Chicago. Man initiated his first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction and controlled it. The impact of this event on civilization is considered by many as monumental and compared by some to other significant events in history, such as the invention of the steam engine and the manufacturing of the first automobile. Making this event possible and the successful operation of this first man-made nuclear reactor, was the use of forty tons of UO2. The use of natural or enriched UO2 is still used today as a nuclear fuel in many nuclear power plants operating world-wide. Other ceramic materials, such as 238Pu, are used for other important purposes, such as ceramic fuels for space exploration to provide electrical power to operate instruments on board spacecrafts. Radioisotopic Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are used to supply electrical power and consist of a nuclear heat source and converter to transform heat energy from radioactive decay into electrical power, thus providing reliable and relatively uniform power over the very long lifetime of a mission. These sources have been used in the Galileo spacecraft orbiting Jupiter and for scientific investigations of Saturn with the Cassini spacecraft. Still another very important series of applications using the unique properties of ceramics in the nuclear field, are as immobilization matrices for management of some of the most hazardous wastes known to man. For example, in long-term management of radioactive and hazardous wastes, glass matrices are currently in production immobilizing high-level radioactive materials, and cementious forms have also been produced to incorporate low level wastes. Also, as part of nuclear disarmament activities, assemblages of crystalline phases are being developed for immobilizing weapons grade plutonium, to

  11. Endorsement of Social and Personal Values Predicts the Desirability of Men and Women as Long-Term Partners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Guilherme S; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Jeffery, Austin J; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K; Zeigler-Hill, Virgil

    2017-01-01

    A prospective romantic partner's desirability as a long-term partner may be affected by the values that he or she endorses. However, few studies have examined the effects of "values" on a person's desirability as a long-term partner. We hypothesized that individuals who endorse social values (vs. personal values) will be perceived as more desirable long-term partners (Hypothesis 1) and that the endorsement of social values will be especially desirable in a male (vs. female) long-term partner (Hypothesis 2). The current study employed a 2 (sex of prospective partner: male vs. female) × 2 (values of prospective partner: personal vs. social) × 2 (physical attractiveness of prospective partner: unattractive vs. highly attractive) mixed-model design. Participants were 339 undergraduates (174 men, 165 women), with ages varying between 18 and 33 years ( M = 19.9, SD = 3.6), and mostly in a romantic relationship (53.7%). Participants reported interest in a long-term relationship with prospective partners depicted in four scenarios (within subjects), each varying along the dimensions of values (personal vs. social) and physical attractiveness (unattractive vs. highly attractive). Individuals endorsing personal values (vs. social values) and men (vs. women) endorsing personal values were rated as less desirable as long-term partners. The current research adds to the partner preferences literature by demonstrating that an individual's ascribed values influence others' perceptions of desirability as a long-term partner and that these effects are consistently sex differentiated, as predicted by an evolutionary perspective on romantic partner preferences.

  12. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  13. PKA and PKC Are Required for Long-Term but Not Short-Term in Vivo Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Maximilian; Green, Charity L.; Lyons, Lisa C.

    2011-01-01

    We investigated the involvement of PKA and PKC signaling in a negatively reinforced operant learning paradigm in "Aplysia", learning that food is inedible (LFI). In vivo injection of PKA or PKC inhibitors blocked long-term LFI memory formation. Moreover, a persistent phase of PKA activity, although not PKC activity, was necessary for long-term…

  14. Temperature effect on hydrocarbon deposition on molybdenum mirrors under ITER-relevant long-term plasma operation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rapp, J.; van Rooij, G. J.; Litnovsky, A.; Marot, L.; De Temmerman, G.; Westerhout, J.; Zoethout, E.

    2009-01-01

    Optical diagnostics in ITER will rely on mirrors near the plasma and the deterioration of the reflectivity is a concern. The effect of temperature on the deposition efficiency of hydrocarbons under long-term operation conditions similar to ITER was investigated in the linear plasma generator

  15. Long-term results of the Weber operation for chronic ankle instability: 37 patients followed for 20-30 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Jasper; Struijs, Peter A. A.; Raaymakers, Ernst L. F. B.; Marti, René K.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Weber operation is an anatomical reconstruction of the anterior talofibular ligament with the plantaris tendon. Few long-term studies have been published. METHODS: We evaluated 40 ankles in 37 patients (19 women) at an average of 24 years after the procedure. RESULTS: At follow-up,

  16. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  17. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  18. Predictive value of the Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and its components for long-term survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aukland, Preben; Lando, Martin; Vilholm, Ole

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The "Status Epilepticus Severity Score" (STESS) is the most important clinical score to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with status epilepticus (SE), but its prognostic relevance for long-term survival is unknown. This study therefore examined if STESS and its components...

  19. Simple analysis of very long term proceses without operational and emergency energy supply in the PWR power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benedek, S.

    1983-01-01

    Published calculational methods are cited and used for examination of PWR transients after a loss-of-coolant accident. For different sizes of breaks and breakdown of the pumps the long term transients - without operational and emergency power supply - were calculated. The results show the critical time interval until the operational or emergency/safety water pump/supply should be made into operation to avoid the core heat-up, melt down and the large radioactive issue. (orig.)

  20. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1990-01-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

  1. Hippocampal-prefrontal connectivity predicts midfrontal oscillations and long-term memory performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, M.X.

    2011-01-01

    The hippocampus and prefrontal cortex interact to support working memory (WM) and long-term memory [1, 2 and 3]. Neurophysiologically, WM is thought to be subserved by reverberatory activity of distributed networks within the prefrontal cortex (PFC) [2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8], which become synchronized

  2. Predicting long-term sickness absence and early retirement pension from self-reported work ability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sell, L.; Bultmann, U.; Rugulies, R.; Villadsen, E.; Faber, A.; Sogaard, K.

    2009-01-01

    Objective The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market. Methods Data on work ability were retrieved from a representative cohort study of Danish wage earners and linked with a

  3. Nonverbal behavior observation : collaborative gaming method for prediction of conflicts during long-term missions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voynarovskaya, N.; Gorbunov, R.D.; Barakova, E.I.; Ahn, R.M.C.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.; Yang, H.S.; et al., xx

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a method for monitoring mental state of small isolated crews during long-term missions (such as space mission, polar expeditions, submarine crews, meteorological stations, and etc). It combines the records of negotiation game with monitoring of the nonverbal behavior of the

  4. Renal function predicts long-term outcome on enzyme replacement therapy in patients with Fabry disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenders, Malte; Schmitz, Boris; Stypmann, Jörg; Duning, Thomas; Brand, Stefan-Martin; Kurschat, Christine; Brand, Eva

    2017-12-01

    Renal and cardiac involvement is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality in Fabry disease (FD). We analysed the incidence of FD-related renal, cardiac and neurologic end points in patients with FD on long-term enzyme replacement therapy (ERT). A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from two German FD centres was performed. The impact of renal and cardiac function at ERT-naïve baseline on end point development despite ERT was analysed. Fifty-four patients (28 females) receiving ERT (mean 81 ± 21 months) were investigated. Forty per cent of patients were diagnosed with clinical end points before ERT initiation and 50% of patients on ERT developed new clinical end points. In patients initially diagnosed with an end point before ERT initiation, the risk for an additional end point on ERT was increased {hazard ratio [HR] 3.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-9.08]; P = 0.0023}. A decreased glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤75 mL/min/1.73 m2 in ERT-naïve patients at baseline was associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular end points [HR 3.59 (95% CI 1.15-11.18); P = 0.0273] as well as for combined renal, cardiac and neurologic end points on ERT [HR 4.77 (95% CI 1.93-11.81); P = 0.0007]. In patients with normal kidney function, left ventricular hypertrophy at baseline predicted a decreased end point-free survival [HR 6.90 (95% CI 2.04-23.27); P = 0.0018]. The risk to develop an end point was independent of sex. In addition to age, even moderately impaired renal function determines FD progression on ERT. In patients with FD, renal and cardiac protection is warranted to prevent patients from deleterious manifestations of the disease. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  5. Maintenance-based prognostics of nuclear plant equipment for long-term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welz, Zachary; Coble, Jamie; Upadhyaya, Belle; Hines, Wes [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States)

    2017-08-15

    While industry understands the importance of keeping equipment operational and well maintained, the importance of tracking maintenance information in reliability models is often overlooked. Prognostic models can be used to predict the failure times of critical equipment, but more often than not, these models assume that all maintenance actions are the same or do not consider maintenance at all. This study investigates the influence of integrating maintenance information on prognostic model prediction accuracy. By incorporating maintenance information to develop maintenance-dependent prognostic models, prediction accuracy was improved by more than 40% compared with traditional maintenance-independent models. This study acts as a proof of concept, showing the importance of utilizing maintenance information in modern prognostics for industrial equipment.

  6. Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawar, R.

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management

  7. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-06-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Prognostic nutritional index predicts postoperative complications and long-term outcomes of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Nan; Deng, Jing-Yu; Ding, Xue-Wei; Ke, Bin; Liu, Ning; Zhang, Ru-Peng; Liang, Han

    2014-08-14

    To investigate the impact of prognostic nutritional index (PNI) on the postoperative complications and long-term outcomes in gastric cancer patients undergoing total gastrectomy. The data for 386 patients with gastric cancer were extracted and analyzed between January 2003 and December 2008 in our center. The patients were divided into two groups according to the cutoff value of the PNI: those with a PNI ≥ 46 and those with a PNI gastric cancer patients.

  9. Preparing the ground for an operational handling of long-term emissions in LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakas, Ioannis; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2015-01-01

    Currently, there is no meaningful methodology for the estimation of environmental impacts from long-term heavy metal emissions in a life cycle assessment (LCA) context, when an assessment of landfill and mining technologies is performed. In this paper, the aims are to investigate the main issues...... and their differences are highlighted.A suitable dynamic LCI is identified for landfill emissions, which calculates Ni, Zn, Cd and Pb emissions as a function of time, based on assumed developments of the leachate pH. The results of the application of the different impact assessment methods on that LCI differ by up to 8...

  10. Long Term Operation R and D to Investigate the Technical Basis for Life Extension and License Renewal Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaertner, John

    2012-01-01

    Establishing an improved technical basis for long term operation of existing plants is a nuclear industry priority. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has responded with a comprehensive Long Term Operation (LTO) Program addressing this need for existing nuclear power plants world-wide. The program supports both the business decisions necessary to achieve high performance operation and the licensing requirements for operation beyond 60 years. The program selects its R and D priorities in a structured and objective way with much industry input to provide useful results for decisions in the 2014 to 2019 time frame. The program is highly collaborative with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and with EPRI-member utilities. The R and D portfolio includes materials aging (metals, concrete, and cables), modernization of information and control technology, enhanced safety analysis, advanced fuel design, demonstration plant activities, life cycle management, and identification of aging management program need for subsequent license renewal. The program has focussed stakeholders world-wide on the technical issues of long term operation, and it is on-track to provide practical results for life extension and license renewal decisions. (author)

  11. Short-term power plant operation scheduling in thermal systems with long-term boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolter, H.

    1990-01-01

    For the first time, the modeling of long-term quantitative conditions within the short-term planning of the application of power stations is made via their shadow prices. It corresponds to a decomposition of the quantitative conditions by means of the method of the Langrange relaxation. The shadow prices determined by the planning for energy application regarding long- term quantitative conditions pass into the short-term planning for power station application and subsidize or rather punish the application of limited amounts as for as they are not claimed for sufficiently or excessively. The clear advantage of this modeling is that the short-term planning of power station application can deviate from the envisioned energy application regarding the total optimum, because the shadow prices contain all information about the cost effect of the energy shifts in the residual total period, which become necessary due to the deviations in the short-term period to be planned in the current short-term period. (orig./DG) [de

  12. Test Plan for Long-Term Operation of a Ten-Cell High Temperature Electrolysis Stack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James E. O'Brien; Carl M. Stoots; J. Stephen Herring

    2008-01-01

    This document defines a test plan for a long-term (2500 Hour) test of a ten-cell high-temperature electrolysis stack to be performed at INL during FY09 under the Nuclear Hydrogen Initiative. This test was originally planned for FY08, but was removed from our work scope as a result of the severe budget cuts in the FY08 NHI Program. The purpose of this test is to evaluate stack performance degradation over a relatively long time period and to attempt to identify some of the degradation mechanisms via post-test examination. This test will be performed using a planar ten-cell Ceramatec stack, with each cell having dimensions of 10 cm x 10 cm. The specific makeup of the stack will be based on the results of a series of shorter duration ten-cell stack tests being performed during FY08, funded by NGNP. This series of tests was aimed at evaluating stack performance with different interconnect materials and coatings and with or without brazed edge rails. The best performing stack from the FY08 series, in which five different interconnect/coating/edge rail combinations were tested, will be selected for the FY09 long-term test described herein

  13. Differential role of calpain-dependent protein cleavage in intermediate and long-term operant memory in Aplysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Lisa C; Gardner, Jacob S; Lentsch, Cassidy T; Gandour, Catherine E; Krishnan, Harini C; Noakes, Eric J

    2017-01-01

    In addition to protein synthesis, protein degradation or protein cleavage may be necessary for intermediate (ITM) and long-term memory (LTM) to remove molecular constraints, facilitate persistent kinase activity and modulate synaptic plasticity. Calpains, a family of conserved calcium dependent cysteine proteases, modulate synaptic function through protein cleavage. We used the marine mollusk Aplysia californica to investigate the in vivo role of calpains during intermediate and long-term operant memory formation using the learning that food is inedible (LFI) paradigm. A single LFI training session, in which the animal associates a specific netted seaweed with the failure to swallow, generates short (30min), intermediate (4-6h) and long-term (24h) memory. Using the calpain inhibitors calpeptin and MDL-28170, we found that ITM requires calpain activity for induction and consolidation similar to the previously reported requirements for persistent protein kinase C activity in intermediate-term LFI memory. The induction of LTM also required calpain activity. In contrast to ITM, calpain activity was not necessary for the molecular consolidation of LTM. Surprisingly, six hours after LFI training we found that calpain activity was necessary for LTM, although this is a time at which neither persistent PKC activity nor protein synthesis is required for the maintenance of long-term LFI memory. These results demonstrate that calpains function in multiple roles in vivo during associative memory formation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Retinal vascular fractals predict long-term microvascular complications in type 1 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broe, Rebecca; Rasmussen, Malin L; Frydkjaer-Olsen, Ulrik

    2014-01-01

    : We included 180 patients with type 1 diabetes in a 16 year follow-up study. In baseline retinal photographs (from 1995), all vessels in a zone 0.5-2.0 disc diameters from the disc margin were traced using Singapore Institute Vessel Assessment-Fractal image analysis software. Artefacts were removed......AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Fractal analysis of the retinal vasculature provides a global measure of the complexity and density of retinal vessels summarised as a single variable: the fractal dimension. We investigated fractal dimensions as long-term predictors of microvasculopathy in type 1 diabetes. METHODS....... Retinal fractal analysis therefore is a potential tool for risk stratification in type 1 diabetes....

  15. Perceived stress and anhedonia predict short-and long-term weight change, respectively, in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Mostafa; Thearle, Marie S; Krakoff, Jonathan; Gluck, Marci E

    2016-04-01

    Perceived stress; emotional eating; anhedonia; depression and dietary restraint, hunger, and disinhibition have been studied as risk factors for obesity. However, the majority of studies have been cross-sectional and the directionality of these relationships remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess their impact on future weight change. Psychological predictors of weight change in short- (6month) and long-term (>1year) periods were studied in 65 lean and obese individuals in two cohorts. Subjects participated in studies of food intake and metabolism that did not include any type of medication or weight loss interventions. They completed psychological questionnaires at baseline and weight change was monitored at follow-up visits. At six months, perceived stress predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.23, P=0.02). There was a significant interaction (r(2)=.38, P=0.009) between perceived stress and positive emotional eating, such that higher scores in both predicted greater weight gain, while those with low stress but high emotional eating scores lost weight. For long-term, higher anhedonia scores predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.24, P=0.04). Depression moderated these effects such that higher scores in both predicted weight gain but higher depression and lower anhedonia scores predicted weight loss. There are different behavioral determinants for short- and long-term weight change. Targeting perceived stress may help with short-term weight loss while depression and anhedonia may be better targets for long-term weight regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

  17. A Raman Lidar as Operational Tool for Long-Term Water Vapor, Temperature and Aerosol Profiling in the Swiss Meteorological Office

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonov, Dr; Dinoev, Dr; Serikov, Dr; Calpini, Dr; Bobrovnikov, Dr; Arshinov, Dr; Ristori, Dr; van den Bergh, Dr; Parlange, Dr

    2010-09-01

    To satisfy the rising demands on the quality and frequency of atmospheric water vapor, temperature and aerosol measurements used for numerical weather prediction models, climate change observations and special events (volcanoes, dust and smoke transport) monitoring, MeteoSwiss decided to implement a lidar at his main aerological station in Payerne. The instrument is narrow field of view, narrowband UV Raman lidar designed for continuous day and night operational profiling of tropospheric water vapor, aerosol and temperature The lidar was developed and built by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology- Lausanne (EPFL) within a joint project with MeteoSwiss. To satisfy the requirements for operational exploitation in a meteorological network the lidar had to satisfy a number of criteria, the most important of which are: accuracy and precision, traceability of the measurement, long-term data consistency, long-term system stability, automated operation, requiring minimal maintenance by a technician, and eye safety. All this requirements were taken into account during the design phase of the lidar. After a ten months test phase of the lidar at Payerne it has been in regular operation since August 2008. Selected data illustrating interesting atmospheric phenomena captured by the lidar as well as long-term intercomparison with collocated microwave radiometer, GPS, radiosonding and an airborne DIAL will be presented and discussed. The talk will address also the technical availability, alignment and calibration stabilities of the instrument.

  18. OECD/NEA study on the economics of the long-term operation of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lokhov, A.; Cameron, R. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 12, boulevard des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2012-07-01

    The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) established the Ad hoc expert group on the Economics of Long-term Operation (LTO) of Nuclear Power Plants. The primary aim of this group is to collect and analyse technical and economic data on the upgrade and lifetime extension experience in OECD countries, and to assess the likely applications for future extensions. This paper describes the key elements of the methodology of economic assessment of LTO and initial findings for selected NEA member countries. (authors)

  19. Keep fatigue usage low for LTO. Benefits of load monitoring and related fatigue evaluations for long term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothenhoefer, H.; Koenig, G.

    2012-01-01

    Design fatigue calculations normally cover a service life of 40 years. Based on design transients with a specified number of cycles the evaluations have to prove that the fatigue usage after 40 years will stay below 1. In 40+ years of operation real loads can differ much from design loads so that premature ageing can occur. For long term operation, monitoring of real loads and detailed fatigue analysis for selected locations can be used to optimize operational modes in order to reduce the loads causing fatigue. As a result fatigue usage can be kept below 1 even for 60+ years. (author)

  20. [Cardiac surgery in octogenarian patients: evaluation of predictive factors of mortality, long-term outcome and quality of life].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana-Tejedor, Ana; Domínguez, Francisco J; Moreno Yangüela, Mar; Moreno, Raúl; López de Sá, Esteban; Mesa, José M; López-Sendón, José

    2008-10-04

    Increasing life expectancy in Western countries in the last decades has resulted in a significant gradual increasing number of octogenarians referred for cardiac surgery. There is a need for a critical evaluation of the long-term surgical outcome and quality of life in the elderly. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery and to assess the long term survival and quality of life. Data were reviewed on 150 patients aged over 80 years--mean age (standard deviation): 82.7 (2.5) years--who underwent cardiac surgery at our institution in the last 26 years. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological variables included in the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE), in-hospital morbidity and mortality, long term survival and quality of life after cardiac surgery. The 30-day mortality rate was 30.1%, with a mean hospital stay of 16.5 days (13-27). Emergent procedure, reparation of postinfarction ventricular ruptures, New York Heart Association functional class IV, chronic renal failure and previous myocardial infarction were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Mean follow up was 72.2 (9.9) months with survival rates of 87.3% and 57% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. Late postoperative quality of life in our 53 long-term survivors was significantly better than prior to surgery. New York Heart Association functional class improved from 2.52 to 1.48. Most survivors (97.7%) were satisfied with present quality of life Cardiac surgery in octogenarians is associated with increased in-hospital mortality rate and longer hospital stay. Our findings support that cardiac surgery can be performed in a selected elderly population with good long-term survival and quality of life.

  1. Parameter estimation and long-term process simulation of a biogas reactor operated under trace elements limitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lübken, Manfred; Koch, Konrad; Gehring, Tito; Horn, Harald; Wichern, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Estimation of ADM1 parameter uncertainty by nonlinear, correlated parameter analysis. • Unbounded confidence regions were obtained for single hydrolysis rate constants. • ADM1 carbohydrates were divided into a slowly and readily degradable part. • Bioavailability of trace metals explained discrepancies between modeled and measured data. - Abstract: The Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) was modified to describe the long-term process stability of a two-stage agricultural biogas system operated for 494 days with a mono-substrate. The ADM1 model fraction for carbohydrates was divided into a slowly and readily degradable part. Significant different hydrolysis rate constants were found for proteins and single fractions of carbohydrates in batch experiments. Degradation of starch, xylan (hemicellulose), cellulose and zein (protein) were modeled with first order hydrolysis rate coefficients of 1.20 d −1 , 0.70 d −1 , 0.18 d −1 and 0.30 d −1 , respectively. While the hydrolysis rate coefficients found in batch experiments could be used for predicting continuous process data, the statistically calculated confidence regions (nonlinear parameter estimation) showed that the upper limits were unbounded. Single discrepancies between measured and modeled process data of the two-stage pilot system could be explained by the lack of bioavailability of trace elements. Addition of iron, as Fe(III)Cl 3 , allowed stable process conditions for an organic loading rate (OLR) up to 2.5 g VS L −1 d −1 . Additional supplement of trace elements was necessary for process operation at OLRs above 2.5 g VS L −1 d −1

  2. Pathologic complete response predicts long-term survival following preoperative radiation therapy for rectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Neelofur R.; Nagle, Deborah A.; Topham, Allan

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The finding of a pathologic complete response (pCR) after preoperative radiation therapy (RT) for rectal cancer is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint for treatment outcome. In most reported series, the pCR rate ranges from 10 to 25%. An underlying assumption is that pCR relates to favorable long-term patient outcome; however, such results are rarely reported. The purpose of this study was to determine the long-term outcome of patients having pCR's following preoperative RT and surgery for rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: Between 1978 and 1993, 49 of 315 patients (16%) were found to have pCR's following 40 to 65 Gy of preoperative RT for rectal cancer (median RT dose 55.8 Gy). Six complete responders also received concurrent 5-FU chemotherapy with RT. Follow-up time ranged from 7 to 224 months (median 52 months). Actuarial overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local control (LC) rates were calculated. Patient outcome was analyzed with respect to pretreatment clinical stage (mobile vs. tethered/fixed on digital exam), tumor level in the rectum as measured from the anorectal ring (0-3 cm vs. >3 cm), type of surgery (local excision, APR, or other), and use of concurrent chemotherapy vs. RT alone. Results: Prior to treatment, clinical stage tumor stage was 43% mobile ((21(49))) and 35% tethered/fixed ((17(49))). Twenty-two percent ((11(49))) did not have palpable tumor at presentation to our institution due to prior local excision of an invasive cancer. Tumor level in the rectum was 74% 0-3 cm, 16% >3 to 6 cm, and 10% > 6 cm. Surgical procedures were 12% APR, 24% LAR, 6% combined abdominal transsacral resection (CATS), 27% coloanal anastamosis, and 31% full thickness local excision. Overall, 2 of 49 patients (4%) developed a local tumor recurrence, and 4 of 49 (8%) developed distant metastases. The overall 5- and 10-year actuarial survival rates were 91% and 86%, respectively. The 5- and 10-year actuarial DFS rate was 85%, and the

  3. SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM WATER LEVEL PREDICTION AT ONE RIVER MEASUREMENT LOCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Scitovski

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global hydrological cycles mainly depend on climate changes whose occurrence is predominantly triggered by solar and terrestrial influence, and the knowledge of the high water regime is widely applied in hydrology. Regular monitoring and studying of river water level behavior is important from several perspectives. On the basis of the given data, by using modifications of general approaches known from literature, especially from investigation in hydrology, the problem of long- and short-term water level forecast at one river measurement location is considered in the paper. Long-term forecasting is considered as the problem of investigating the periodicity of water level behavior by using linear-trigonometric regression and short-term forecasting is based on the modification of the nearest neighbor method. The proposed methods are tested on data referring to the Drava River level by Donji Miholjac, Croatia, in the period between the beginning of 1900 and the end of 2012.

  4. Acute deviations from long-term trait depressive symptoms predict systemic inflammatory activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohleder, Nicolas; Miller, Gregory E

    2008-07-01

    Depressive symptoms increase morbidity and mortality from coronary heart disease and systemic inflammation has been proposed as the underlying mechanism. While higher levels of inflammatory mediators have been found in dysphoric individuals, it is not known whether long-term or short-term mood changes are responsible for this phenomenon. A sample of 65 young women provided weekly web-based self-ratings of depressive mood over a period of 20 weeks using the CES-D, and systemic inflammation was assessed by measuring plasma interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) before and after the observation period. CES-D ratings were used to develop state and trait indicators of depressed mood and evaluate their relationship with inflammatory mediators. Hierarchical linear regressions controlling for baseline inflammation, age, and BMI revealed that trait levels of depressive symptoms were not associated with IL-6 (beta=0.09; n.s.) and CRP (beta=0.01; n.s.) concentrations after the observation period. In contrast, state levels of depressive symptoms were associated with changes in IL-6, but not CRP, particularly when they were indexed as the disparity between a person's trait level of symptoms and her CES-D score just prior to IL-6 assessment (beta=0.35; p=0.03). These results lead us to conclude that in young women, state, rather than trait depressed mood stimulates peripheral inflammation as measured by IL-6. This pattern suggests that in this age group, fast-reacting inflammatory mediators such as IL-6 probably respond to short-term changes, for example, in stress hormones or stress hormone sensitivity, rather than long-term dysregulations of allostatic mechanisms.

  5. Hypoxic Prostate/Muscle PO2 Ratio Predicts for Outcome in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turaka, Aruna; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Horwitz, Eric M.; Greenberg, Richard E.; Movsas, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To correlate tumor oxygenation status with long-term biochemical outcome after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Custom-made Eppendorf PO 2 microelectrodes were used to obtain PO 2 measurements from the prostate (P), focused on positive biopsy locations, and normal muscle tissue (M), as a control. A total of 11,516 measurements were obtained in 57 men with localized prostate cancer immediately before prostate brachytherapy was given. The Eppendorf histograms provided the median PO 2 , mean PO 2 , and % 2 ratio on BF. Results: With a median follow-up time of 8 years, 12 men had ASTRO BF and 8 had Phoenix BF. On multivariate analysis, P/M PO 2 ratio 2 ratio 2 ratio) significantly predicts for poor long-term biochemical outcome, suggesting that novel hypoxic strategies should be investigated.

  6. Surgical indication for functional tricuspid regurgitation at initial operation: judging from long term outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzoli, Alberto; Lapenna, Elisabetta; Vicentini, Luca; Alfieri, Ottavio; De Bonis, Michele

    2016-09-01

    The assessment and management of tricuspid valve disease have evolved substantially during the past several years. Whereas tricuspid stenosis is uncommon, tricuspid regurgitation is frequently encountered and it is most often secondary due to annular dilatation and leaflet tethering from right ventricular remodelling. The indications for tricuspid valve surgery to treat tricuspid regurgitation are several and mainly related to the underlying disease, to the severity of insufficiency and to the right ventricular function. Surgical tricuspid repair has been avoided for years, because of the misleading concept that tricuspid regurgitation should disappear once the primary left-sided problem has been eliminated. Instead, during the last decade, many investigators have reported evidence in favor of a more aggressive surgical approach to functional tricuspid regurgitation, recognising the risk of progressive tricuspid insufficiency in patients with moderate or lesser degrees of tricuspid regurgitation and tricuspid annular dilatation. This concept, along with the long-term outcomes of principal surgical repair techniques are reported and discussed. Last, novel transcatheter therapies have begun to emerge for the treatment of severe tricuspid regurgitation in high-risk patients. Hence, very preliminary pre-clinical and clinical experiences are illustrated. The scope of this review is to explore the anatomic basis, the pathophysiology, the outcomes and the new insights in the management of functional tricuspid regurgitation.

  7. Severe Spastic Contractures and Diabetes Mellitus Independently Predict Subsequent Minimal Trauma Fractures Among Long-Term Care Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Kuen; Leung, Man Fuk; Kwan, Chi Wai; Kwan, Joseph

    2016-11-01

    The study aimed to examine the epidemiology of hypertonic contractures and its relationship with minimal trauma fracture (MTF), and to determine the incidence and predictors of (MTF) in long-term care residents. This was a longitudinal cohort study of prospectively collected data. Participants were followed from March 2007 to March 2016 or until death. A 300-bed long-term care hospital in Hong Kong. All long-term care residents who were in need of continuous medical and nursing care for their activities of daily living. Information on patients' demographic data, severe contracture defined as a decrease of 50% or more of the normal passive range of joint movement of the joint, and severe limb spasticity defined by the Modified Ashworth Scale higher than grade 3, medical comorbidities, functional status, cognitive status, nutritional status including body mass index and serum albumin, past history of fractures, were evaluated as potential risk factors for subsequent MTF. Three hundred ninety-six residents [148 males, mean ± standard deviation (SD), age = 79 ± 16 years] were included for analysis. The presence of severe contracture was highly prevalent among the study population: 91% of residents had at least 1 severe contracture, and 41% of residents had severe contractures involving all 4 limbs. Moreover, there were a significant proportion of residents who had severe limb spasticity with the elbow flexors (32.4%) and knee flexors (33.9%) being the most commonly involved muscles. Twelve residents (3%) suffered from subsequent MTF over a median follow-up of 33 (SD = 30) months. Seven out of these 12 residents died during the follow-up period, with a mean survival of 17.8 months (SD = 12.6) after the fracture event. The following 2 factors were found to independently predict subsequent MTF in a multivariate Cox regression: bilateral severe spastic knee contractures (hazard ratio = 16.5, P contractures are common morbidities in long-term care residents

  8. Serum Albumin Predicts Long-Term Neurological Outcomes After Acute Spinal Cord Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Bobo; Jutzeler, Catherine R; Cragg, Jacquelyn J; Grassner, Lukas; Schwab, Jan M; Casha, Steve; Geisler, Fred; Kramer, John L K

    2018-01-01

    There is a need to identify reliable biomarkers of spinal cord injury recovery for clinical practice and clinical trials. Our objective was to correlate serum albumin levels with spinal cord injury neurological outcomes. We performed a secondary analysis of patients with traumatic spinal cord injury (n = 591) participating in the Sygen clinical trial. Serum albumin concentrations were obtained as part of routine blood chemistry analysis, at trial entry (24-72 hours), 1, 2, and 4 weeks after injury. The primary outcomes were "marked recovery" and lower extremity motor scores, derived from the International Standards for the Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury. Data were analyzed with multivariable logistic and linear regression to adjust for potential confounders. Serum albumin was significantly associated with spinal cord injury neurological outcomes. Higher serum albumin concentrations at 1, 2, and 4 weeks were associated with higher 52-week lower extremity motor score. Similarly, the odds of achieving "marked neurological recovery" was greater for individuals with higher serum albumin concentrations. The association between serum albumin concentrations and neurological outcomes was independent of initial injury severity, treatment with GM-1, and polytrauma. In spinal cord injury, serum albumin is an independent marker of long-term neurological outcomes. Serum albumin could serve as a feasible biomarker for prognosis at the time of injury and stratification in clinical trials.

  9. Post-Operative Infection Is an Independent Risk Factor for Worse Long-Term Survival after Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerin Povšič, Milena; Ihan, Alojz; Beovič, Bojana

    2016-12-01

    Colorectal cancer surgery is associated with a high incidence of post-operative infections, the outcome of which may be improved if diagnosed and treated early enough. We compared white blood cell (WBC) count, C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) as predictors of post-operative infections and analyzed their impact on long-term survival. This retrospective study included 186 patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Post-operative values of WBC, CRP, and PCT were analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. We followed infections 30 d after the surgery. A five-year survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method and prognostic factors by Cox regression model. Fifty-five patients (29.5%) developed post-operative infection, the most frequent of which was surgical site infection (SSI). C-reactive protein on post-operative day three and PCT on post-operative day two demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy for infection (area under the curve [AUC] 0.739 and 0.735). C-reactive protein on post-operative day three was an independent predictor of infection. Five-year survival was higher in the non-infected group (70.8%), compared with the infected group (52.1%). The worst survival (40.9%) was identified in patients with organ/space SSI. Post-operative infection and tumor stage III-IV were independent predictors of a worse five-year survival. C-reactive protein on post-operative day three and PCT on post-operative day two may be early predictors of infection after colorectal cancer surgery. Post-operative infections in particular organ/space SSI have a negative impact on long-term survival.

  10. Predicting long-term outcomes for children affected by HIV and AIDS: perspectives from the scientific study of children's development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Alan; Desmond, Christopher; Garbarino, James; Van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Barbarin, Oscar; Black, Maureen M; Stein, Aryeh D; Hillis, Susan D; Kalichman, Seth C; Mercy, James A; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Rapa, Elizabeth; Saul, Janet R; Dobrova-Krol, Natasha A; Richter, Linda M

    2014-07-01

    The immediate and short-term consequences of adult HIV for affected children are well documented. Little research has examined the long-term implications of childhood adversity stemming from caregiver HIV infection. Through overviews provided by experts in the field, together with an iterative process of consultation and refinement, we have extracted insights from the broader field of child development of relevance to predicting the long-term consequences to children affected by HIV and AIDS. We focus on what is known about the impact of adversities similar to those experienced by HIV-affected children, and for which there is longitudinal evidence. Cautioning that findings are not directly transferable across children or contexts, we examine findings from the study of parental death, divorce, poor parental mental health, institutionalization, undernutrition, and exposure to violence. Regardless of the type of adversity, the majority of children manifest resilience and do not experience any long-term negative consequences. However, a significant minority do and these children experience not one, but multiple problems, which frequently endure over time in the absence of support and opportunities for recovery. As a result, they are highly likely to suffer numerous and enduring impacts. These insights suggest a new strategic approach to interventions for children affected by HIV and AIDS, one that effectively combines a universal lattice of protection with intensive intervention targeted to selected children and families.

  11. Brain atrophy and lesion load predict long term disability in multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Popescu, Veronica; Agosta, Federica; Hulst, Hanneke E

    2013-01-01

    To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS).......To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS)....

  12. Whatever after next? adaptive predictions based on short- and long-term memory in visual search

    OpenAIRE

    Conci, M.; Zellin, M.; Muller, Hermann J.

    2012-01-01

    Generating predictions for task-relevant goals is a fundamental requirement of human information processing, as it ensures adaptive success in our complex natural environment. Clark (in press) proposed a model of hierarchical predictive processing, in which perception, attention, and learning are unified within a coherent framework. In this view, incoming sensory signals are constantly matched with top-down expectations or predictions, with the aim of minimizing the prediction error to genera...

  13. [Angiopoietins predict long-term outcomes after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage during an early period].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Wang, Dong; Wei, Huijie; Tian, Ye; Jiang, Rongcai; Yue, Shuyuan; Zhang, Jianning

    2015-05-19

    To evaluate the association between serum levels of angiopoietins (Ang) during an early period (within 72 h) and clinical outcomes after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). This prospective study was conducted at Department of Neurosurgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital. Blood samples from 37 aSAH patients were collected at 8 h (or GOSE). Those with GOSE > 5 were counted as a good outcome while those with GOSE ≤ 5 had a poor outcome. A total of 37 patients with aSAH and 39 healthy controls (HC) were enrolled. The aSAH patients showed a significant rise of Ang-1 within 8 h as compared with HC. The outcomes were good (n = 15) and poor (n = 22). Serum Ang-1 at 8 h (or < 8 h), 24 h and 72 h in good outcomers showed significantly higher than that in poor outcomers [(52 ± 24) vs (37 ± 17) mg/L, (62 ± 26) vs (45 ± 17) mg/L, (107 ± 27) vs (72 ± 18) mg/L]. The serum level of Ang-1 at 8 h and 24 h was one of independent risk factors for aSAH patients by multiariable Logistic regression analysis [adjected OR (95% CI) 1.095 (1.015-1.181) and 1.109 (1.016-1.211)] (P < 0.05). High serum level of Ang-1 during an early period (within 72 h) was associated with good outcomers (r = 0.627, P < 0.001). The serum levels of angiopoietins are significantly altered in aSAH patients, especially higher in good outcomers. And abnormal levels of angiopoietins may affect early brain injury (EBI) after SAH, structural integrity and recovery of blood-brain barrier (BBB) and long-term outcomes in aSAH patients.

  14. Insurance and education predict long-term survival after orthotopic heart transplantation in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jeremiah G; Weiss, Eric S; Arnaoutakis, George J; Russell, Stuart D; Baumgartner, William A; Shah, Ashish S; Conte, John V

    2012-01-01

    Insurance status and education are known to affect health outcomes. However, their importance in orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) is unknown. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database provides a large cohort of OHT recipients in which to evaluate the effect of insurance and education on survival. UNOS data were retrospectively reviewed to identify adult primary OHT recipients (1997 to 2008). Patients were stratified by insurance at the time of transplantation (private/self-pay, Medicare, Medicaid, and other) and college education. All-cause mortality was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression incorporating 15 variables. Survival was modeled using the Kaplan-Meier method. Insurance for 20,676 patients was distributed as follows: private insurance/self-pay, 12,298 (59.5%); Medicare, 5,227 (25.3%); Medicaid, 2,320 (11.2%); and "other" insurance, 831 (4.0%). Educational levels were recorded for 15,735 patients (76.1% of cohort): 7,738 (49.2%) had a college degree. During 53 ± 41 months of follow-up, 6,125 patients (29.6%) died (6.7 deaths/100 patient-years). Survival differed by insurance and education. Medicare and Medicaid patients had 8.6% and 10.0% lower 10-year survival, respectively, than private/self-pay patients. College-educated patients had 7.0% higher 10-year survival. On multivariable analysis, college education decreased mortality risk by 11%. Medicare and Medicaid increased mortality risk by 18% and 33%, respectively (p ≤ 0.001). Our study examining insurance and education in a large cohort of OHT patients found that long-term mortality after OHT is higher in Medicare/Medicaid patients and in those without a college education. This study points to potential differences in the care of OHT patients based on education and insurance status. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

  16. On the distribution of metals deposited onto the limiter and the liner of tokamaks after long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolff, H.; Grote, H.; Herrmann, A.; Hildebrandt, D.; Laux, M.; Pech, P.; Reiner, H.D.; Ziegenhagen, G.; Chicherov, V.M.; Grashin, S.A.; Kopecky, V.; Jakubka, K.

    1987-01-01

    Three inspections of the inner parts of the discharge vessels of T-10 and TM1-MH after long-term operation revealed that metals originating from the various construction materials are distributed inhomogeneously over the first wall of these tokamaks. This partially allows one to identify local metal sources and to indicate anisotropies of the transport. Different materials from inner structures, even if they were only used in earlier experiments, are observed at all limiter surfaces and as components of the debris consisting of macroparticles of different size, shape and elemental composition. There are metallic deposits of the form of structured films or of solidified droplets. (orig.)

  17. Prediction of IRI in short and long terms for flexible pavements: ANN and GMDH methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziari, H.; Sobhani, J.; Ayoubinejad, J.; Hartmann, Timo

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of pavement condition is one of the most important issues in pavement management systems. In this paper, capabilities of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and group method of data handling (GMDH) methods in predicting flexible pavement conditions were analysed in three levels: in 1 year,

  18. Cognitive deficits in long-term survivors of childhood brain tumors: Identification of predictive factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reimers, Tonny Solveig; Ehrenfels, Susanne; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

    2003-01-01

    To describe cognitive function and to evaluate the association between potentially predictive factors and cognitive outcome in an unselected population of survivors of childhood brain tumors.......To describe cognitive function and to evaluate the association between potentially predictive factors and cognitive outcome in an unselected population of survivors of childhood brain tumors....

  19. Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

    2018-05-01

    Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from

  20. Startup and long term operation of enhanced biological phosphorus removal in continuous-flow reactor with granules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dong; Lv, Yufeng; Zeng, Huiping; Zhang, Jie

    2016-07-01

    The startup and long term operation of enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) in a continuous-flow reactor (CFR) with granules were investigated in this study. Through reducing the settling time from 9min to 3min gradually, the startup of EBPR in a CFR with granules was successfully realized in 16days. Under continuous-flow operation, the granules with good phosphorus and COD removal performance were stably operated for more than 6months. And the granules were characterized with particle size of around 960μm, loose structure and good settling ability. During the startup phase, polysaccharides (PS) was secreted excessively by microorganisms to resist the influence from the variation of operational mode. Results of relative quantitative PCR indicated that granules dominated by polyphosphate-accumulating organisms (PAOs) were easier accumulated in the CFR because more excellent settling ability was needed in the system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Optimal sizing and operation of energy storage systems considering long term assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Guerra

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a procedure for estimating the optimal sizing of Photovoltaic Generators and Energy Storage units when they are operated from the utility’s perspective. The goal is to explore the potential improvement on the overall operating conditions of the distribution system to which the Generators and Storage units will be connected. Optimization is conducted by means of a General Parallel Genetic Algorithm that seeks to maximize the technical benefits for the distribution system. The paper proposes an operation strategy for Energy Storage units based on the daily variation of load and generation; the operation strategy is optimized for an evaluation period of one year using hourly power curves. The construction of the yearly Storage operation curve results in a high-dimension optimization problem; as a result, different day-classification methods are applied in order to reduce the dimension of the optimization. Results show that the proposed approach is capable of producing significant improvements in system operating conditions and that the best performance is obtained when the day-classification is based on the similarity among daily power curves.

  2. Prediction of Long-Term Outcomes in Young Adults with a History of Adolescent Alcohol-Related Hospitalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groß, Cornelius; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Reis, Olaf; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

    2016-01-01

    Empirical data concerning the long-term psychosocial development of adolescents admitted to inpatient treatment with alcohol intoxication (AIA) are lacking. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that, at the time of admission, predict future substance use, alcohol use disorders (AUD), mental health treatment, delinquency and life satisfaction. We identified 1603 cases of AIA treated between 2000 and 2007 in one of five pediatric departments in Germany. These former patients were invited to participate in a telephone interview. Medical records were retrospectively analyzed extracting potential variables predicting long-term outcomes. Interviews were conducted with 277 individuals, 5-13 [mean 8.3 (SD 2.3)] years after treatment, with a response rate of 22.7%; of these, 44.8% were female. Mean age at the interview was 24.4 (SD 2.2) years. Logistic and linear regression models revealed that being male, using illicit substances and truancy or runaway behavior in adolescence predicted binge drinking, alcohol dependence, use of illicit substances and poor general life satisfaction in young adulthood, explaining between 13 and 24% of the variance for the different outcome variables. This naturalistic study confirms that known risk factors for the development of AUD also apply to AIA. This finding facilitates targeted prevention efforts for those cases of AIA who need more than the standard brief intervention for aftercare. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  3. Screening instruments for predicting return to work in long-term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Momsen, A-M H; Stapelfeldt, C M; Nielsen, C V

    2017-01-01

    Background: Multiple somatic symptoms are common and may cause prolonged sickness absence (SA) and unsuccessful return to work (RTW). Aims: To compare three instruments and their predictive and discriminative abilities regarding RTW. Methods: A longitudinal cohort study of participants recruited...

  4. Road Map for Ageing Management and Safe Long Term Operation of Light Water Reactors in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanno, M.; Sakamoto, H.; Sekimura, N.

    2012-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Authority (tentativename) will be established under the Ministry of Environment, aiming at independent regulatory decision making. Limit of operation to 40 years will be regulated. As an exception, extension of a certain period (<20 years) will be approved only one time when compliance with the regulatory standards is confirmed. It is necessary on a technical information basis to check and evaluate the utilities' activities of the ageing management technical evaluation by the new regulatory organization. Technical information and knowledge-bases for the design, construction, operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants should be utilized comprehensively not only for utilities but also for the regulatory orgnazation. Obsolesce of codes and standards may bring weakness in defense in depth, or higher core damage frequency. Investigation of the aged and thermal material is effective for proactive management and sophistication of codes and standards for ageing managementoflong term operation. (author)

  5. Ageing Management of the reactor internals in Belgian nuclear units in view of Long Term Operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerard, R.; Bertolis, D.; Vissers, S.

    2012-01-01

    The reactor internals support the reactor core, distribute the coolant flow through the core, and guide and protect the rod control cluster assemblies and in-core instrumentation. Their integrity must be guaranteed in all operating and accident conditions. They are exposed to specific degradation mechanisms linked to the intense neutron irradiation, like Irradiation Assisted Stress Corrosion Cracking (IASCC) or potentially void swelling, in addition to more classical mechanisms like fatigue, wear and stress corrosion cracking. A rigorous follow-up of in-service degradation and an effective ageing management is therefore of crucial importance and contributes to the safe and economical operation of nuclear PWR units. (author)

  6. LONG-TERM SUCCESS OF AORTOILIAC OPERATION FOR ARTERIOSCLEROTIC OBSTRUCTIVE DISEASE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VANDENAKKER, PJ; VANSCHILFGAARDE, R; BRAND, R; VANBOCKEL, JH; TERPSTRA, JL

    The current retrospective study was performed on 747 patients with aortoiliac obstructive disease who under-went reconstructive operation. Unlike many other centers, the University Hospital Leiden has, throughout the years, maintained the strategy of avoiding the implantation of a prosthesis in

  7. The long term operation of nuclear power plants in the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, G.G.

    2015-01-01

    The NRC has so far granted the renewal license for 73 nuclear reactors in the US but because of economic issues some power plants that got a renewal license are planned to be decommissioned earlier: for instance the Oyster Creek reactor will be stopped definitely in 2019 after a 50 year operating life, another example is the Kewaunee plant that closed mid 2013 while this reactor had been allowed to operate till 2033. The economy concern is the falling price of natural gas that make gas-burning power plants more competitive than nuclear stations. The reactors at risk are the oldest and the smallest ones but in the non-deregulated sector the economic benefit is important for the most powerful reactors to be allowed to operate over 40 and 60 years. A renewal request is composed of a safety assessment of the plant and the assessment of its environmental impact. The safety assessment relies on an Integrated Plant Assessment and on a Time-Limited Ageing Analyses. In order to prepare the second renewal campaign that will allow some reactors to operate up to 80 years, NRC, DOE and EPRI have begun first to identify potential concerns concerning material degradation and secondly to develop an adequate ageing management strategy. (A.C.)

  8. Status of Siemens steam generator design and measures to assure continuous long-term reliable operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoch, G.

    1999-01-01

    Operating pressurized water reactors with U-tube steam generators have encountered difficulties with either one or a combination of inadequate material selection, poor design or manufacturing and an insufficient water chemistry control which resulted in excessive tube degradation. In contrast to the above mentioned problems, steam generators from Siemens/KWU are proving by operating experience that all measures undertaken at the design stage as well as during the operating and maintenance phase were effective enough to counteract any tube corrosion phenomena or other steam generator related problem. An Integrated Service Concept has been developed, applied and wherever necessary improved in order to ensure reliable steam generator operation. The performance of the steam generators is updated continuously, evaluated and implemented in lifetime databases. The main indicator for steam generator integrity are the results of the eddy current testing of the steam generator tubes. Tubes with indications are rated with lifetime threshold values and if necessary plugged, based on individual assessment criteria.(author)

  9. The family environment predicts long-term academic achievement and classroom behavior following traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durber, Chelsea M; Yeates, Keith Owen; Taylor, H Gerry; Walz, Nicolay Chertkoff; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L

    2017-07-01

    This study examined how the family environment predicts long-term academic and behavioral functioning in school following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in early childhood. Using a concurrent cohort, prospective design, 15 children with severe TBI, 39 with moderate TBI, and 70 with orthopedic injury (OI) who were injured when they were 3-7 years of age were compared on tests of academic achievement and parent and teacher ratings of school performance and behavior on average 6.83 years postinjury. Soon after injury and at the longer term follow-up, families completed measures of parental psychological distress, family functioning, and quality of the home environment. Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined group differences in academic outcomes and their associations with measures of the early and later family environment. The severe TBI group, but not the moderate TBI group, performed worse than did the OI group on all achievement tests, parent ratings of academic performance, and teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Higher quality early and late home environments predicted stronger academic skills and better classroom behavior for children with both TBI and OI. The early family environment more consistently predicted academic achievement, whereas the later family environment more consistently predicted classroom functioning. The quality of the home environment predicted academic outcomes more strongly than did parental psychological distress or family functioning. TBI in early childhood has long-term consequences for academic achievement and school performance and behavior. Higher quality early and later home environments predict better school outcomes for both children with TBI and children with OI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. SALTO Peer Review Guidelines. Guidelines for Peer Review of Safety Aspects of Long Term Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    International peer review is a useful tool for Member States to exchange experiences, learn from each other and apply good practices in the long term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The peer review is also an important mechanism through which the IAEA supports Member States in enhancing the safety of NPPs. The IAEA has conducted various types of safety review that indirectly address aspects of LTO, including safety reviews for design, engineering, operation and external hazards. Operational Safety Review Team (OSART) services include review of ageing management programmes. In addition, several Member States have requested Ageing Management Assessment Team (AMAT) missions. Through these experiences, it was recognized that a comprehensive peer review on LTO would be very useful to Member States. The Safety Aspects of Long Term Operation (SALTO) peer review addresses strategy and key elements for the safe LTO of NPPs, which includes AMAT objectives and complements OSART reviews. The SALTO peer review is designed to assist operating organizations in adopting a proper approach to LTP including implementing appropriate activities to ensure that plant safety will be maintained during the LTO period. The SALTO peer review can be tailored to focus on ageing management programmes (AMPs) or on other activities related to LTO to support the Member State in enhancing the safety of its NPPs. The SALTO peer review can also support regulators in establishing or improving regulatory and licensing strategies for the LTO of NPPs. The guidelines in this publication are primarily intended for members of a SALTO review team and provide a basic structure and common reference for peer reviews of LTO. Additionally, the guidelines also provide useful information to the operating organizations of NPPs (or technical support organizations) for carrying out their own self-assessments or comprehensive programme reviews. The guidelines are intended to be generic, as there are

  11. Regional long-term co-operation in the field of nuclear and radiation emergency preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sladek, V.; Metke, E.; Janko, K.; Hohenberg, J. K.; Hofer, P.

    2004-01-01

    Emergency preparedness is generally covered by methodical and coordinative activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Member States of the IAEA and by the European Commission (EC) in EU Member and EU Accession Countries. However, the regional harmonisation of emergency arrangements is an important trend of emergency preparedness. The present paper gives a couple of illustrative examples for a regional co-operation in the field of emergency preparedness in Central Europe and an overview on international exercises in this region. The penultimate section contains an outlook on future activities regarding regional co-operation in Central Europe. The following topics have been suggested inter alia: the harmonisation of intervention criteria and countermeasures, co-ordination in the field of information of the public, comprehensive bi lateral and multilateral exercises, exchange of experts between the national nuclear emergency centres and inter-comparison calculations of the computer codes. (authors)

  12. MAI: the institute is dedicated for long-term operating of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    The MAI (Materials Ageing Institute) was founded in 2008 by the most important nuclear power plant operators in the world with the aim of sharing resources and expertise for proving that nuclear power plant service life can be extended without jeopardizing safety. Most of MAI's work has focused on the ageing of stainless steels, alloys, polymers and concretes that are used in light water cooled reactors. (A.C.)

  13. Long-term operation experience with 2 ECR ion sources and planned extensions at HIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkelmann, T.; Cee, R.; Haberer, T.; Naas, B.; Peters, A.

    2012-01-01

    The HIT (Heidelberg Ion Beam Therapy Center) is the first treatment facility at a hospital in Europe where patients can be treated with protons and carbon ions. Since the commissioning starting in 2006 two 14.5 GHz electron cyclotron resonance ion sources are routinely used to produce a variety of ion beams from protons up to oxygen. The operating time is 330 days per year, our experience after three years of continuous operation will be presented. In the future a helium beam for patient treatment is requested, therefore a third ion source will be integrated. This third ECR source with a newly designed extraction system and a spectrometer line will be installed at a test-bench to commission and validate this section. Different test settings are foreseen to study helium operation as well as enhanced parameter sets for proton and carbon beams in combination with a modified beam transport line for higher transmission efficiency. An outlook to the possible integration scheme of the new ion source into the production facility will be discussed. The paper is followed by the associated poster. (authors)

  14. Overview of plant life management for long term operation in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K.S.; Vincze, P.; Bychkov, A.

    2014-01-01

    Many IAEA member states have given high priority to licensing their nuclear power plants to operate for terms longer than the time frame originally anticipated (generally 40 years). The task of managing plant ageing is assigned in most member states to an engineering specialty called 'plant life management' (PLiM) applying a systematic analysis methodology to System Structure Components (SSCs) ageing. In many countries, the safety performance of nuclear power plants is periodically assessed and characterized via the periodic safety review (PSR) process. Regulatory review and acceptance of PSRs constitutes for these countries the licensing requirement for continued operation of the plant to the following PSR cycle (usually 10 years). In the USA and in other countries operating US designed plants, instead of PSR process, a license renewal application (LRA) process is followed, which requires certain prerequisites such as ageing management programs, particularly for passive irreplaceable SSCs. Active components are normally addressed via the maintenance rule (MR) requirements and other established regulatory processes. A third group of member states have adopted a combined approach that incorporates elements of both the PSR process and selected LRA specific requirements, such as time limited ageing analysis. The article ends with some IAEA recommendations for the implementation of national PLiM programs

  15. Short-Term changes on MRI predict long-Term changes on radiography in rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peterfy, Charles; Strand, Vibeke; Tian, Lu

    2017-01-01

    Objective In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), MRI provides earlier detection of structural damage than radiography (X-ray) and more sensitive detection of intra-Articular inflammation than clinical examination. This analysis was designed to evaluate the ability of early MRI findings to predict subsequent...

  16. Admission body temperature predicts long-term mortality after acute stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, L P; Jørgensen, H S; Rungby, Jørgen

    2002-01-01

    Body temperature is considered crucial in the management of acute stroke patients. Recently hypothermia applied as a therapy for stroke has been demonstrated to be feasible and safe in acute stroke patients. In the present study, we investigated the predictive role of admission body temperature...

  17. Comparison of measured and predicted long term performance of grid a connected photovoltaic system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondol, Jayanta Deb; Yohanis, Yigzaw G.; Norton, Brian

    2007-01-01

    Predicted performance of a grid connected photovoltaic (PV) system using TRNSYS was compared with measured data. A site specific global-diffuse correlation model was developed and used to calculate the beam and diffuse components of global horizontal insolation. A PV module temperature equation and a correlation relating input and output power of an inverter were developed using measured data and used in TRNSYS to perform PV array and inverter outputs simulation. Different combinations of the tilted surface radiation model, global-diffuse correlation model and PV module temperature equation were used in the simulations. Statistical error analysis was performed to compare the results for each combination. The simulation accuracy was improved by using the new global-diffuse correlation and module temperature equation in the TRNSYS simulation. For an isotropic sky tilted surface radiation model, the average monthly difference between measured and predicted PV output before and after modification of the TRNSYS component were 10.2% and 3.3%, respectively, and, for an anisotropic sky model, 15.4% and 10.7%, respectively. For inverter output, the corresponding errors were 10.4% and 3.3% and 15.8% and 8.6%, respectively. Measured PV efficiency, overall system efficiency, inverter efficiency and performance ratio of the system were compared with the predicted results. The predicted PV performance parameters agreed more closely with the measured parameters in summer than in winter. The difference between predicted performances using an isotropic and an anisotropic sky tilted surface models is between 1% and 2%

  18. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  19. Lifetime Management Programs as a basis for the long term operation of nuclear installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    López González, Manuel; Lobato Galeote, Carlos, E-mail: mlopezg@idom.com, E-mail: carlos.lobato@idom.com [IDOM - Consulting, Engineering & Architecture SAU, Madrid (Spain)

    2017-07-01

    From the licensing standpoint there are several approaches worldwide to obtain an authorization to operate a NPP beyond its design life. According to the License Renewal Application (LRA) approach, followed in the United States of America and another countries, plants need to develop a Life Time Management Program (LTMP) with which manage the potential aging processes (corrosion, erosion, erosion-corrosion, radiation and thermally induced embrittlement, fatigue, corrosion fatigue, creep, binding and wear) associated to the Structures, Systems and Components. A LTMP is composed of several tasks which represents a technical challenge for a nuclear installation. (author)

  20. Evaluation of residual life of material of power plant construction elements after long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osasyuk, V.V.

    1989-01-01

    Existing methods are analyzed for estimation of residual resource of elements of constructions, working in creep conditions. A suggested and experimentally verified new method of residual durability forecasting is described permitting the value of the supplementary resource to be specified according to the real state of the material after preoperation. Evaluation results are given for residual life of steam lines received by different methods and advantages of the technique proposed are shown. Reliability of the new technique is confirmed by steam line operation at thermal power plants

  1. Lifetime Management Programs as a basis for the long term operation of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    López González, Manuel; Lobato Galeote, Carlos

    2017-01-01

    From the licensing standpoint there are several approaches worldwide to obtain an authorization to operate a NPP beyond its design life. According to the License Renewal Application (LRA) approach, followed in the United States of America and another countries, plants need to develop a Life Time Management Program (LTMP) with which manage the potential aging processes (corrosion, erosion, erosion-corrosion, radiation and thermally induced embrittlement, fatigue, corrosion fatigue, creep, binding and wear) associated to the Structures, Systems and Components. A LTMP is composed of several tasks which represents a technical challenge for a nuclear installation. (author)

  2. TransFormers for Ensuring Long-Term Operations in Lunar Extreme Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantovani, J. G.; Stoica, A.; Alkalai, L.; Wilcox, B.; Quadrelli, M.

    2016-01-01

    "Surviving Extreme Space Environments" (EE) is one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. Power generation and thermal control are the key survival ingredients that allow a robotic explorer to cope with the EE using resources available to it, for example, by harvesting the local solar energy or by utilizing an onboard radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG). TransFormers (TFs) are a new technology concept designed to transform a localized area within a harsh extreme environment into a survivable micro-environment by projecting energy to the precise location where robots or humans operate. For example, TFs placed at a location on the rim of Shackleton Crater, which is illuminated by solar radiation for most of the year, would be able to reflect solar energy onto robots operating in the dark cold crater. TFs utilize a shape transformation mechanism to un-fold from a compact volume to a large reflective surface, and to control how much-and where-the energy is projected, and by adjusting for the changing position of the sun. TFs would enable in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) activities within locations of high interest that would normally be unreachable because of their extreme environment

  3. Long-term military work outcomes in soldiers who become mental health casualties when deployed on operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Norman; Fear, Nicola T; Jones, Margaret; Wessely, Simon; Greenberg, Neil

    2010-01-01

    little is known about longer term military work outcomes in UK military personnel who develop mental health problems when operationally deployed. Deployed Field Mental Health Teams (FMHTs) who support them follow the principles of "Forward Psychiatry," aiming to treat psychiatric casualties close to the front line to maximize operational effectiveness and occupational retention. to examine the short- and long-term military work outcomes in soldiers deployed to Iraq between 2003 and 2007 who were referred to the FMHT. FMHT clinical records were linked to occupational records with 825 resulting matches. 71.6% of the referred soldiers with a documented short-term military work outcome returned to their operational unit, and 73.5% of those who had a documented long-term military work outcome served on for a period in excess of two years. Adjusting for potential confounders, a shorter service length and removal from the operational theatre were both strongly associated with premature discharge; however, it was not possible to determine the severity of the presenting mental health problem and assess whether this impacted outcome. the results of this study support the use of the Forward Psychiatry principles in achieving good short-term military work outcomes. Utilizing these principles, three-quarters of those referred to the FMHT were returned to their deployed unit and approximately three-quarters of those assessed by the FMHT remained in service two years after referral. We suggest that these are positive work outcomes; however, being evacuated out of the operational environment and having a short service length were both associated with premature discharge, though we were unable to examine the role of illness severity.

  4. Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Ernest Y.

    1992-01-01

    Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

  5. Development of mobile sensor for volcanic observation "HOMURA": Test campaigns for a long-term operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, K.; Iwahori, K.; Ito, K.; Sagi, H.

    2016-12-01

    Unmanned robots are useful to observe volcanic phenomena near active volcanic vents, to learn symptoms and transitions of eruptions, and to mitigate volcanic disasters. We have been trying to develop a practical UGV robot for flexible observation of active volcanic vents. We named this system "Homura". In this presentation, we report results of test campaigns of Homura for observation in a volcanic field. We have developed a prototype of Homura, which is a small robot vehicle with six wheels (75 x 43 x 31 cm and a weight of about 12 kg). It is remotely controlled with mobile phone radio waves; it can move in volcanic fields and send real time data of sensors (camera and gas sensors) equipped in the vehicle to the base station. Homura has a small solar panel (4 W). Power consumption of Homura is about 4 W in operation of sensors and less than 0.1 W in idle state, so that Homura can work outdoors for a long time by intermittent operation.We carried out two test campaigns of Homura at Iwo-yama to examine if Homura can work for a few month in natural volcanic fields (however, it had no solar panel in these campaigns). Iwo-yama is one of craters in the Kirishima volcanic field, SW Japan; the area within 1 km from the crater was an off-limit area from Oct., 2014 to May, 2015 and from Feb. to Mar., 2016 because of strong volcanic seismicity. On Feb. 19th, 2015 and Mar. 7th, 2016, we carried and put Homura at the rim of the crater. Unfortunately, mobile phone connectivity was not entirely stable around Iwo-yama. Then, we did not move Homura and only obtain real time data of the sensors. In the two campaigns, we operated Homura at our office for a few hours every day for 49 and 37 days, respectively. Although the weather was often bad (rain, fog, or cold temperature) during the campaigns, Homura perfectly worked. The results of these campaigns indicate that Homura is useful as s simple monitoring station in volcanic fields where mobile phone connection is available.

  6. An effective surveillance strategy for reactor pressure vessel assessment in the long term operation perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaouadi, R.; Gerard, R.

    2015-01-01

    The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) irradiation embrittlement is monitored by means of surveillance capsules containing the RPV belt-line materials, inserted inside the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) before the start of operation. These capsules are placed at location where they receive a higher neutron flux than the vessel wall, by a factor of the order of 2 to 3. They are regularly retrieved and tested to evaluate the RPV irradiation embrittlement according to specific regulatory procedures and standards, in order to guarantee the safe operation of the RPV throughout its lifetime. These procedures are often relying on empirical but conservative concepts. In parallel, material research reactor (MTR) irradiations are often used to support the surveillance data and to develop a better understanding of irradiation effects, not only qualitatively but also quantitatively. Taking advantage of the increased understanding of irradiation effects, analytical tools were developed to improve the evaluation embrittlement and quality assurance of the RPV embrittlement assessment. In this framework, an alternative but complementary surveillance program assessment was developed in Belgium, the so-called enhanced surveillance, in order to benefit from the latest developments in the area of materials science and irradiation effects. The neutron flux and fracture properties of the surveillance materials can be reliably characterized and correlated to each other using physically-based rather than empirical concepts. The enhanced surveillance approach is complementary to the mandatory regulatory procedure and allows quantifying the conservatism of the regulatory approach. The enhanced surveillance approach that uses the reconstitution technology to fabricate additional small size specimens, appropriate modeling tools and microstructural examination when required, makes it possible to rationalize all available information in a physically-based way

  7. Microgravity spheroids as a reliable, long-term tool for predictive toxicology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fey, S. J.; Wrzesinski, Krzysztof

    2013-01-01

    those seen in vivo. Studies with 5 common drugs (acetaminophen, amiodarone, metformin, phenformin, and valproic acid) have shown that they are more predictive of lethally-toxic plasma levels in vivo than published studies using primary human hepatocytes. Shotgun proteomics has revealed that the gain...... this time they are metabolically stable for at least 24 days more; grow slowly (a doubling time of >20 days); produce physiological levels of urea, cholesterol and ATP; exhibit stable gene expression (for selected liver relevant genes); and can post translationally modify proteins in a manner which mirrors...

  8. Retinal Vessel Calibers Predict Long-term Microvascular Complications in Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broe, Rebecca; Rasmussen, Malin L; Frydkjaer-Olsen, Ulrik

    2014-01-01

    Diabetic neuropathy, nephropathy, and retinopathy cause significant morbidity in patients with type 1 diabetes, even though improvements in treatment modalities delay the appearance and reduce the severity of these complications. To prevent or further delay the onset, it is necessary to better.......5-1 disc diameter from the disc margin were measured and summarized as the central artery and vein equivalents. In multiple regression analyses, we found wider venular diameters and smaller arteriolar diameters were both predictive of the 16-year development of nephropathy, neuropathy, and proliferative...

  9. A finite element modeling method for predicting long term corrosion rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, J.W.; Chan, S.

    1984-01-01

    For the analyses of galvanic corrosion, pitting and crevice corrosion, which have been identified as possible corrosion processes for nuclear waste isolation, a finite element method has been developed for the prediction of corrosion rates. The method uses a finite element mesh to model the corrosive environment and the polarization curves of metals are assigned as the boundary conditions to calculate the corrosion cell current distribution. A subroutine is used to calculate the chemical change with time in the crevice or the pit environments. In this paper, the finite element method is described along with experimental confirmation

  10. Study on component interface evolution of a solid oxide fuel cell stack after long term operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jiajun; Huang, Wei; Wang, Xiaochun; Li, Jun; Yan, Dong; Pu, Jian; Chi, Bo; Li, Jian

    2018-05-01

    A 5-cell solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) stack with external manifold structure is assembled and underwent a durability test with an output of 250 W for nearly 4400 h when current density and operating temperature are 355 mA/cm2 and 750 °C. Cells used in the stack are anode-supported cells (ASC) with yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) electrolytes, Ni/YSZ hydrogen electrodes, and YSZ based composite cathode. The dimension of the cell is 150 × 150 mm (active area: 130 × 130 mm). Ceramic-glass sealant is used in the stack to keep the gas tightness between cells, interconnects and manifolds. Pure hydrogen and dry air are used as fuel and oxidant respectively. The stack has a maximum output of 340 W at 562 mA/cm2 current density at 750 °C. The stack shows a degradation of 1.5% per 1000 h during the test with 2 thermal cycles to room temperature. After the test, the stack was dissembled and examined. The relationship between microstructure changes of interfaces and degradation in the stack are discussed. The microstructure evolution of interfaces between electrode, contact material and current collector are unveiled and their relationship with the degradation is discussed.

  11. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  12. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  13. Annual and long-term prediction of the atmospheric corrosion of metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morcillo, M.

    1998-01-01

    The atmospheric corrosion of metals is known to be a discontinuous electrochemical process which takes place only when the metallic surface is wet or moistened by different meteorological phenomena (rain, humidity condensation, fog, etc.) The magnitude of atmospheric corrosion would be relatively low if it were not for the presence of certain pollutants in the atmosphere, mainly sulphur dioxide (anthropogenic pollutant) and marine chlorides (natural pollutant). The literature contains different models for predicting the atmospheric metals over short periods (generally one year) and long periods (15, 20 or more years) of atmospheric exposure. In addition to the different meteorological factors (volume of precipitation, days of rain, relative humidity (RH), T, etc.), atmospheric SO 2 deposition rate and atmospheric salinity (Cl - ) appear as independent variables in all of these models. (Author)

  14. Long-term prediction of reading accuracy and speed: The importance of paired-associate learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Mads; Asmussen, Vibeke; Elbro, Carsten

    Purpose: Several cross-sectional studies have found a correlation between paired-associate learning (PAL) and reading (e.g. Litt et al., 2013; Messbauer & de Jong, 2003, 2006). These findings suggest that verbal learning of phonological forms is important for reading. However, results from...... longitudinal studies have been mixed (e.g. Lervåg & Hulme, 2009; Horbach et al. 2015). The present study investigated the possibility that the mixed results may be a result of a conflation of accuracy and speed. It is possible that PAL is a stronger correlate of reading accuracy than speed (Litt et al., 2013...... of reading comprehension and isolated sight word reading accuracy and speed. Results: PAL predicted unique variance in sight word accuracy, but not speed. Furthermore, PAL was indirectly linked to reading comprehension through sight word accuracy. RAN correlated with both accuracy and speed...

  15. Going outdoors daily predicts long-term functional and health benefits among ambulatory older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Jeremy M; Cohen, Aaron; Hammerman-Rozenberg, Robert; Azoulay, Daniel; Maaravi, Yoram; Stessman, Jochanan

    2008-04-01

    This article examines the association between frequency of going out of the house and health and functional status among older people. A randomly chosen cohort of ambulatory participants born in 1920 or 1921 from the Jerusalem Longitudinal Study underwent assessments for health, functional, and psychosocial variables at ages 70 and 77. Twelve-year mortality data were collected. Women went out daily less than did men. Participants going out daily at age 70 reported significantly fewer new complaints at age 77 of musculoskeletal pain, sleep problems, urinary incontinence, and decline in activities of daily living (ADLs). Logistic regression analysis indicated that not going out daily at age 70 was predictive of subsequent dependence in ADL, poor self-rated health, and urinary incontinence at age 77. Going out daily is beneficial among independent older people, correlating with reduced functional decline and improved health measures.

  16. Predicting Adverse Health Outcomes in Long-Term Survivors of a Childhood Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaya S. Moskowitz

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available More than 80% of children and young adults diagnosed with invasive cancer will survive five or more years beyond their cancer diagnosis. This population has an increased risk for serious illness- and treatment-related morbidity and premature mortality. A number of these adverse health outcomes, such as cardiovascular disease and some second primary neoplasms, either have modifiable risk factors or can be successfully treated if detected early. Absolute risk models that project a personalized risk of developing a health outcome can be useful in patient counseling, in designing intervention studies, in forming prevention strategies, and in deciding upon surveillance programs. Here, we review existing absolute risk prediction models that are directly applicable to survivors of a childhood cancer, discuss the concepts and interpretation of absolute risk models, and examine ways in which these models can be used applied in clinical practice and public health.

  17. Predicting long-term catchment nutrient export: the use of nonlinear time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Peter; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Szolgay, Jan; Komornikova, Magda

    2010-05-01

    After the Second World War the nitrate concentrations in European water bodies changed significantly as the result of increased nitrogen fertilizer use and changes in land use. However, in the last decades, as a consequence of the implementation of nitrate-reducing measures in Europe, the nitrate concentrations in water bodies slowly decrease. This causes that the mean and variance of the observed time series also changes with time (nonstationarity and heteroscedascity). In order to detect changes and properly describe the behaviour of such time series by time series analysis, linear models (such as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)), are no more suitable. Time series with sudden changes in statistical characteristics can cause various problems in the calibration of traditional water quality models and thus give biased predictions. Proper statistical analysis of these non-stationary and heteroscedastic time series with the aim of detecting and subsequently explaining the variations in their statistical characteristics requires the use of nonlinear time series models. This information can be then used to improve the model building and calibration of conceptual water quality model or to select right calibration periods in order to produce reliable predictions. The objective of this contribution is to analyze two long time series of nitrate concentrations of the rivers Ouse and Stour with advanced nonlinear statistical modelling techniques and compare their performance with traditional linear models of the ARMA class in order to identify changes in the time series characteristics. The time series were analysed with nonlinear models with multiple regimes represented by self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and Markov-switching models (MSW). The analysis showed that, based on the value of residual sum of squares (RSS) in both datasets, SETAR and MSW models described the time-series better than models of the

  18. Random Network Models to Predict the Long-Term Impact of HPV Vaccination on Genital Warts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez-Domingo, Javier; Sánchez-Alonso, Víctor; Acedo, Luis; Villanueva-Oller, Javier

    2017-01-01

    The Human papillomaviruses (HPV) vaccine induces a herd immunity effect in genital warts when a large number of the population is vaccinated. This aspect should be taken into account when devising new vaccine strategies, like vaccination at older ages or male vaccination. Therefore, it is important to develop mathematical models with good predictive capacities. We devised a sexual contact network that was calibrated to simulate the Spanish epidemiology of different HPV genotypes. Through this model, we simulated the scenario that occurred in Australia in 2007, where 12–13 year-old girls were vaccinated with a three-dose schedule of a vaccine containing genotypes 6 and 11, which protect against genital warts, and also a catch-up program in women up to 26 years of age. Vaccine coverage were 73% in girls with three doses and with coverage rates decreasing with age until 52% for 20–26 year-olds. A fast 59% reduction in the genital warts diagnoses occurred in the model in the first years after the start of the program, similar to what was described in the literature. PMID:29035332

  19. Early hospital readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications predicts long-term mortality after pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Caitlin W; Tosoian, Jeffrey J; Craig-Schapiro, Rebecca; Valero, Vicente; Cameron, John L; Eckhauser, Frederic E; Hirose, Kenzo; Makary, Martin A; Pawlik, Timothy M; Ahuja, Nita; Weiss, Matthew J; Wolfgang, Christopher L

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of early (30-day) hospital readmission (EHR) on mortality after pancreatectomy. Using a prospectively collected institutional database linked with a statewide dataset, we evaluated the association between EHR and overall mortality in all patients undergoing pancreatectomy at our tertiary institution (2005 to 2010). Of 595 pancreatectomy patients, EHR occurred in 21.5%. Overall mortality was 29.4% (median follow-up 22.7 months). Patients with EHR had decreased survival compared with those who were not readmitted (P = .011). On multivariate analysis adjusting for baseline group differences, EHR for gastrointestinal-related complications was a significant independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 2.30, P = .001). In addition to known risk factors, 30-day readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications following pancreatectomy independently predicts increased mortality. Additional studies are necessary to identify surgical, medical, and social factors contributing to EHR, as well as interventions aimed at decreasing postpancreatectomy morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. AREVA's toolbox for long-term best performance and reliable operation of nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drexler, Andreas; Weiss, Steffen; Caris, Neil; Stiepani, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Long-term integrity and high performance of major plant systems and components are of uppermost importance for the successful operation of any power plant. AREVA's experience gathered with water-steam cycle chemistry treatments in more than 40 years yields the conclusion: Accumulation of corrosion products in SGs may result in local overheating and enrichment of impurities up to critical levels. This can lead to several degradation phenomena of the structural materials of the SGs. Therefore, minimization of corrosion product generation and prevention of deposit accumulation is required. The objective of AREVA's asset management program is to support operators by minimizing corrosion damage and performance losses of water-steam cycle systems and components and thereby to maximize the availability and economic performance of the plant. Such asset management program is in principle a closed cycle process. It is based on control, corrective and preventive measures. The objective of control measure is deriving a widespread assessment of the corrosion status of the steam-water cycle which yields to weak points and identifying the best suited corrective and/or preventive measures. In the subsequent steps appropriate measures which improve the current status or counteract on identified issues are identified and applied. Corrective measures, likes mechanical and/or chemical cleaning are targeting the minimization of negative influence on plant performance caused by corrosion in the steam-water cycle. Complementary to corrective measures are preventive ones, like optimization of pH strategy and AREVA's FFA technology could by applied. They are focusing on the origin of corrosion product generation. AREVA is offering a toolbox for long-term best performance and reliable operation of NPPs. (author)

  1. Regional prediction of long-term landfill gas to energy potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, Hamid R; Reinhart, Debra R

    2011-01-01

    Quantifying landfill gas to energy (LFGTE) potential as a source of renewable energy is difficult due to the challenges involved in modeling landfill gas (LFG) generation. In this paper a methodology is presented to estimate LFGTE potential on a regional scale over a 25-year timeframe with consideration of modeling uncertainties. The methodology was demonstrated for the US state of Florida, as a case study, and showed that Florida could increase the annual LFGTE production by more than threefold by 2035 through installation of LFGTE facilities at all landfills. The estimated electricity production potential from Florida LFG is equivalent to removing some 70 million vehicles from highways or replacing over 800 million barrels of oil consumption during the 2010-2035 timeframe. Diverting food waste could significantly reduce fugitive LFG emissions, while having minimal effect on the LFGTE potential; whereas, achieving high diversion goals through increased recycling will result in reduced uncollected LFG and significant loss of energy production potential which may be offset by energy savings from material recovery and reuse. Estimates showed that the power density for Florida LFGTE production could reach as high as 10 Wm(-2) with optimized landfill operation and energy production practices. The environmental benefits from increased lifetime LFG collection efficiencies magnify the value of LFGTE projects. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Study for the prediction of the long-term durability of seismic isolators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujita, T.; Ishida, K.; Mazda, T.; Nishikawa, I.; Muramatsu, Y.; Hamanaka, T.; Yoshizawa, T.; Sueyasu, T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of seismic rubber isolators is considered as one of the steps in assuring the reliability and safe operation of the Fast Breeder Reactor Plant. In order to propose a precise test method for estimating the durability of seismic isolators, we examined the depth-dependent profiles of tensile properties in thick natural rubber blocks after thermal aging at 60-100 degrees C. The results of this study established the following conclusions: After thermal aging, the rubber blocks exhibited heterogeneous degradation behavior. These rubber blocks could be divided into two areas, the oxidative degraded area near the surface showing large changes in the properties, and the thermal degraded area in the interior showing small property changes. It was established that the depth of oxidation showed temperature dependence, with greater depth of oxidation at lower temperatures. There was also found to be a linear relationship between the logarithm of the depth of oxidation and the reciprocal of the absolute temperature. As a result, the depths of oxidation at normal temperature may be estimated to depths of 6-10 cm. Having calculated the activation energy at depths of 2 mm each from the surface in the oxidative degraded area, it was found that the activation energy held a fixed value independent of depth. 7 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

  3. Absenteeism screening questionnaire (ASQ): a new tool for predicting long-term absenteeism among workers with low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truchon, Manon; Schmouth, Marie-Ève; Côté, Denis; Fillion, Lise; Rossignol, Michel; Durand, Marie-José

    2012-03-01

    Over the last decades, psychosocial factors were identified by many studies as significant predictive variables in the development of disability related to common low back disorders, which thus contributed to the development of biopsychosocial prevention interventions. Biopsychosocial interventions were supposed to be more effective than usual interventions in improving different outcomes. Unfortunately, most of these interventions show inconclusive results. The use of screening questionnaires was proposed as a solution to improve their efficacy. The aim of this study was to validate a new screening questionnaire to identify workers at risk of being absent from work for more than 182 cumulative days and who are more susceptible to benefit from prevention interventions. Injured workers receiving income replacement benefits from the Quebec Compensation Board (n = 535) completed a 67-item questionnaire in the sub-acute stage of pain and provided information about work-related events 6 and 12 months later. Reliability and validity of the 67-item questionnaire were determined respectively by test-retest reliability and internal consistency analysis, as well as by construct validity analyses. The Cox regression model and the maximum likelihood method were used to fix a model allowing calculation of a probability of absence of more than 182 days. Criterion validity and discriminative capacity of this model were calculated. Sub-sections from the 67-item questionnaire were moderately to highly correlated 2 weeks later (r = 0.52-0.80) and showed moderate to good internal consistency (0.70-0.94). Among the 67-item questionnaire, six sub-sections and variables (22 items) were predictive of long-term absence from work: fear-avoidance beliefs related to work, return to work expectations, annual family income before-taxes, last level of education attained, work schedule and work concerns. The area under the ROC curve was 73%. The significant predictive variables of long-term

  4. Lean body mass predicts long-term survival in Chinese patients on peritoneal dialysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenq-Wen Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reduced lean body mass (LBM is one of the main indicators in malnutrition inflammation syndrome among patients on dialysis. However, the influence of LBM on peritoneal dialysis (PD patients' outcomes and the factors related to increasing LBM are seldom reported. METHODS: We enrolled 103 incident PD patients between 2002 and 2003, and followed them until December 2011. Clinical characteristics, PD-associated parameters, residual renal function, and serum chemistry profiles of each patient were collected at 1 month and 1 year after initiating PD. LBM was estimated using creatinine index corrected with body weight. Multiple linear regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Cox regression proportional hazard analysis were used to define independent variables and compare survival between groups. RESULTS: Using the median LBM value (70% for men and 64% for women, patients were divided into group 1 (n = 52; low LBM and group 2 (n = 51; high LBM. Group 1 patients had higher rates of peritonitis (1.6 vs. 1.1/100 patient months; p<0.05 and hospitalization (14.6 vs. 9.7/100 patient months; p<0.05. Group 1 patients also had shorter overall survival and technique survival (p<0.01. Each percentage point increase in LBM reduced the hazard ratio for mortality by 8% after adjustment for diabetes, age, sex, and body mass index (BMI. Changes in residual renal function and protein catabolic rate were independently associated with changes in LBM in the first year of PD. CONCLUSIONS: LBM serves as a good parameter in addition to BMI to predict the survival of patients on PD. Preserving residual renal function and increasing protein intake can increase LBM.

  5. Main corrective measures in an early phase of nuclear power plants’ preparation for safe long term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krivanek, Robert, E-mail: r.krivanek@iaea.org [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, Operational Safety Section, Vienna 1400 (Austria); Fiedler, Jan, E-mail: fiedler@fme.vutbr.cz [University of Technology Brno, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Energy Institute, Technická 2896/2, 616 69 Brno (Czech Republic)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • Results of SALTO missions provide the most important issues for safe long term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plants. • The most important technical corrective measures in an early phase of preparation for safe LTO are described. • Their satisfactory resolution creates a basis for further activities to demonstrate preparedness for safe LTO. - Abstract: This paper presents the analysis of main technical deficiencies of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in preparedness for safe long term operation (LTO) and the main corrective measures in an early phase of preparation for safe LTO of NPPs. It focuses on technical aspects connected with management of physical ageing of NPP structures, systems and components (SSCs). It uses as a basis results of IAEA SALTO missions performed between 2005 and 2016 (see also paper NED8805 in Nuclear Engineering and Design in May 2016) and the personal experiences of the authors with preparation of NPPs for safe LTO. This paper does not discuss other important aspects of safe LTO of NPPs, e.g. national nuclear energy policies, compliance of NPPs with the latest international requirements on design, obsolescence, environmental impact and economic aspects of LTO. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction of the current status of the NPP’ fleet in connection with LTO. Chapter 2 provides an overview of SALTO peer review service results with a focus on deficiencies related to physical ageing of safety SSCs and a demonstration that SSCs will perform their safety function during the intended period of LTO. Chapter 3 discusses the main corrective measures which NPPs typically face during the preparation for demonstration of safe LTO. Chapter 4 summarizes the current status of the NPP’ fleet in connection with LTO and outlines further steps needed in preparation for safe LTO.

  6. Long-term operation of a solid oxide cell stack for coelectrolysis of steam and CO2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agersted, Karsten; Chen, Ming; Blennow, Peter

    2016-01-01

    of synthetic fuels such as methane, methanol or DME. Previously we have reported electrolysis operation of solid oxide cell stacks for periods up to about 1000 hours. In this work, operation of a Haldor Topsoe 8-cell stack (stack design of 2014) in co-electrolysis mode for 6000 hours is reported. The stack....... Initial operation at 700 oC and -0.25 A/cm2 lasted for only 120 hours due to severe degradation of the bottom cell. Regaining the stack performance was realized by increasing the operation temperature to 750 oC. After reactivation, the stack showed negligible degradation at 750 oC and -0.25 A/cm2...... and about 1.4 %/1000 h performance degradation at 750 oC and -0.5 A/cm2. This study demonstrates feasibility of long-term co-electrolysis operation via SOEC stacks and of careful temperature variation as a tool to regain the stack performance....

  7. Durability and regeneration of activated carbon air-cathodes in long-term operated microbial fuel cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Enren; Wang, Feng; Yu, Qingling; Scott, Keith; Wang, Xu; Diao, Guowang

    2017-08-01

    The performance of activated carbon catalyst in air-cathodes in microbial fuel cells was investigated over one year. A maximum power of 1722 mW m-2 was produced within the initial one-month microbial fuel cell operation. The air-cathodes produced a maximum power >1200 mW m-2 within six months, but gradually became a limiting factor for the power output in prolonged microbial fuel cell operation. The maximum power decreased by 55% when microbial fuel cells were operated over one year due to deterioration in activated carbon air-cathodes. While salt/biofilm removal from cathodes experiencing one-year operation increased a limiting performance enhancement in cathodes, a washing-drying-pressing procedure could restore the cathode performance to its original levels, although the performance restoration was temporary. Durable cathodes could be regenerated by re-pressing activated carbon catalyst, recovered from one year deteriorated air-cathodes, with new gas diffusion layer, resulting in ∼1800 mW m-2 of maximum power production. The present study indicated that activated carbon was an effective catalyst in microbial fuel cell cathodes, and could be recovered for reuse in long-term operated microbial fuel cells by simple methods.

  8. Effect of stage development of mining operations on maximization the net present value in long-term planning of open pits

    OpenAIRE

    Kržanović, Daniel; Rajković, Radmilo; Mikić, Miomir; Ljubojev, Milenko

    2014-01-01

    Long-term planning in the mining industry has one main goal: maximizing the value that is realized by excavation and processing of mineral resources. When designing the open pits, determining the stages of development the mining operations, (eng. Pushback) is one of the important factors in the process of long-term production planning. Using the different scientific methods and mathematical algorithms underlying the operation of modern software for strategic planning of production, it is poss...

  9. Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage  = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  10. High-sensitive CRP as a predictive marker of long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberdi-Saugstrup, Mikel; Zak, Marek; Nielsen, Susan

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate whether C-reactive protein (CRP), including variation within the normal range, is predictive of long-term disease outcome in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA). Consecutive patients with newly diagnosed JIA were included prospectively from defined geographic areas of the Nordic...... countries from 1997 to 2000. Inclusion criteria were availability of a baseline serum sample within 12 months after disease onset and 8-year clinical assessment data. Systemic onset JIA was not included. CRP was measured by high-sensitive ELISA (detection limit of 0.2 mg/l). One hundred and thirty...... participants with a median follow-up time of 97 months (range 95–100) were included. At follow-up, 38% of the patients were in remission off medication. Absence of remission was associated with elevated level of CRP at baseline (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.63, p = 0.007). By applying...

  11. Modeling techniques for predicting long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Winkle, W.

    1977-01-01

    Appropriate modeling techniques already exist for investigating some long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems, even if to date these techniques have not been used for this purpose. At the low levels of irradiation estimated to occur in natural aquatic systems, effects are difficult to detect at even the individual level much less the population or ecosystem level where the subtle effects of radiation are likely to be completely overshadowed by the effects of other environmental factors and stresses and the natural variability of the system. The claim that population and ecosystem models can be accurate and reliable predictive tools in assessing any stress has been oversold. Nonetheless, the use of these tools can be useful for learning more about the effects of radioactive releases on aquatic populations and ecosystems

  12. The value of short-term pain relief in predicting the long-term outcome of 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joswig, Holger; Neff, Armin; Ruppert, Christina; Hildebrandt, Gerhard; Stienen, Martin Nikolaus

    2018-05-01

    The predictive value of short-term arm pain relief after 'indirect' cervical epidural steroid injection (ESI) for the 1-month treatment response has been previously demonstrated. It remained to be answered whether the long-term response could be estimated by the early post-interventional pain course as well. Prospective observational study, following a cohort of n = 45 patients for a period of 24 months after 'indirect' ESI for radiculopathy secondary to a single-level cervical disk herniation (CDH). Arm and neck pain on the visual analog scale (VAS), health-related quality of life with the Short Form-12 (SF-12), and functional outcome with the Neck Pain and Disability (NPAD) Scale were assessed. Any additional invasive treatment after a single injection (second injection or surgery) defined treatment outcome as 'non-response'. At 24 months, n = 30 (66.7%) patients were responders and n = 15 (33.3%) were non-responders. Non-responders exited the follow-up at 1 month (n = 10), at 3 months (n = 4), and at 6 months (n = 1). No patients were injected again or operated on between the 6- and 24-month follow-up. Patients with favorable treatment response at 24 months had significantly lower VAS arm pain (p  50% short term pain reduction was not a reliable predictor of the 24-month responder status. SF-12 and NPAD scores were better among treatment responders in the long term. Patients who require a second injection or surgery after 'indirect' cervical ESI for a symptomatic CDH do so within the first 6 months. Short-term pain relief cannot reliably predict the long-term outcome.

  13. Automated Long-Term Monitoring of Parallel Microfluidic Operations Applying a Machine Vision-Assisted Positioning Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Hon Ming; Li, John C. S.; Cui, Xin; Gao, Qiannan; Leung, Chi Chiu

    2014-01-01

    As microfluidics has been applied extensively in many cell and biochemical applications, monitoring the related processes is an important requirement. In this work, we design and fabricate a high-throughput microfluidic device which contains 32 microchambers to perform automated parallel microfluidic operations and monitoring on an automated stage of a microscope. Images are captured at multiple spots on the device during the operations for monitoring samples in microchambers in parallel; yet the device positions may vary at different time points throughout operations as the device moves back and forth on a motorized microscopic stage. Here, we report an image-based positioning strategy to realign the chamber position before every recording of microscopic image. We fabricate alignment marks at defined locations next to the chambers in the microfluidic device as reference positions. We also develop image processing algorithms to recognize the chamber positions in real-time, followed by realigning the chambers to their preset positions in the captured images. We perform experiments to validate and characterize the device functionality and the automated realignment operation. Together, this microfluidic realignment strategy can be a platform technology to achieve precise positioning of multiple chambers for general microfluidic applications requiring long-term parallel monitoring of cell and biochemical activities. PMID:25133248

  14. Automated long-term monitoring of parallel microfluidic operations applying a machine vision-assisted positioning method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Hon Ming; Li, John C S; Xie, Kai; Cui, Xin; Prasad, Agrim; Gao, Qiannan; Leung, Chi Chiu; Lam, Raymond H W

    2014-01-01

    As microfluidics has been applied extensively in many cell and biochemical applications, monitoring the related processes is an important requirement. In this work, we design and fabricate a high-throughput microfluidic device which contains 32 microchambers to perform automated parallel microfluidic operations and monitoring on an automated stage of a microscope. Images are captured at multiple spots on the device during the operations for monitoring samples in microchambers in parallel; yet the device positions may vary at different time points throughout operations as the device moves back and forth on a motorized microscopic stage. Here, we report an image-based positioning strategy to realign the chamber position before every recording of microscopic image. We fabricate alignment marks at defined locations next to the chambers in the microfluidic device as reference positions. We also develop image processing algorithms to recognize the chamber positions in real-time, followed by realigning the chambers to their preset positions in the captured images. We perform experiments to validate and characterize the device functionality and the automated realignment operation. Together, this microfluidic realignment strategy can be a platform technology to achieve precise positioning of multiple chambers for general microfluidic applications requiring long-term parallel monitoring of cell and biochemical activities.

  15. Automated Long-Term Monitoring of Parallel Microfluidic Operations Applying a Machine Vision-Assisted Positioning Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon Ming Yip

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As microfluidics has been applied extensively in many cell and biochemical applications, monitoring the related processes is an important requirement. In this work, we design and fabricate a high-throughput microfluidic device which contains 32 microchambers to perform automated parallel microfluidic operations and monitoring on an automated stage of a microscope. Images are captured at multiple spots on the device during the operations for monitoring samples in microchambers in parallel; yet the device positions may vary at different time points throughout operations as the device moves back and forth on a motorized microscopic stage. Here, we report an image-based positioning strategy to realign the chamber position before every recording of microscopic image. We fabricate alignment marks at defined locations next to the chambers in the microfluidic device as reference positions. We also develop image processing algorithms to recognize the chamber positions in real-time, followed by realigning the chambers to their preset positions in the captured images. We perform experiments to validate and characterize the device functionality and the automated realignment operation. Together, this microfluidic realignment strategy can be a platform technology to achieve precise positioning of multiple chambers for general microfluidic applications requiring long-term parallel monitoring of cell and biochemical activities.

  16. Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

    2016-05-01

    Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Coral reef growth in an era of rapidly rising sea level: predictions and suggestions for long-term research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buddemeier, R W; Smith, S V

    1988-01-01

    Coral reef growth is intimately linked to sea level. It has been postulated that over the next century, sea level will rise at a probable average rate of 15 mm/year, in response to fossil fuel emissions, heating, and melting of the Antarctic ice cap. This predicted rate of sea level rise is five times the present modal rate of vertical accretion on coral reef flats and 50% greater than the maximum vertical accretion rates apparently attained by coral reefs. We use these predictions and observations to offer the following hypothesis for reef growth over the next century. The vertical accretion rates of protected reef flats will accelerate from the present modal rate up to the maximum rate, in response to the more rapidly rising sea level. This more rapid vertical accretion rate will be insufficient to keep up with sea level rise, if present predictions prove to be correct. Less protected reef flats will slow their rate of growth as they become inundated and subjected to erosion by progressively larger waves. This projected sea level rise and postulated reef response will provide an opportunity for long- term studies of the response of coral reef systems to a predictable and measurable forcing function.

  18. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Månsson, K N T; Frick, A; Boraxbekk, C-J; Marquand, A F; Williams, S C R; Carlbring, P; Andersson, G; Furmark, T

    2015-03-17

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge. This study aimed at assessing neural predictors of long-term treatment outcome in participants with SAD 1 year after completion of Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT). Twenty-six participants diagnosed with SAD underwent iCBT including attention bias modification for a total of 13 weeks. Support vector machines (SVMs), a supervised pattern recognition method allowing predictions at the individual level, were trained to separate long-term treatment responders from nonresponders based on blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses to self-referential criticism. The Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale was the main instrument to determine treatment response at the 1-year follow-up. Results showed that the proportion of long-term responders was 52% (12/23). From multivariate BOLD responses in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) together with the amygdala, we were able to predict long-term response rate of iCBT with an accuracy of 92% (confidence interval 95% 73.2-97.6). This activation pattern was, however, not predictive of improvement in the continuous Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-report version. Follow-up psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed that lower dACC-amygdala coupling was associated with better long-term treatment response. Thus, BOLD response patterns in the fear-expressing dACC-amygdala regions were highly predictive of long-term treatment outcome of iCBT, and the initial coupling between these regions differentiated long-term responders from nonresponders. The SVM-neuroimaging approach could be of particular clinical value as it allows for accurate prediction of treatment outcome at the level of the individual.

  19. ADRA2B deletion variant selectively predicts stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory in females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoladz, Phillip R; Kalchik, Andrea E; Hoffman, Mackenzie M; Aufdenkampe, Rachael L; Lyle, Sarah M; Peters, David M; Brown, Callie M; Cadle, Chelsea E; Scharf, Amanda R; Dailey, Alison M; Wolters, Nicholas E; Talbot, Jeffery N; Rorabaugh, Boyd R

    2014-10-01

    Clarifying the mechanisms that underlie stress-induced alterations of learning and memory may lend important insight into susceptibility factors governing the development of stress-related psychological disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous work has shown that carriers of the ADRA2B Glu(301)-Glu(303) deletion variant exhibit enhanced emotional memory, greater amygdala responses to emotional stimuli and greater intrusiveness of traumatic memories. We speculated that carriers of this deletion variant might also be more vulnerable to stress-induced enhancements of long-term memory, which would implicate the variant as a possible susceptibility factor for traumatic memory formation. One hundred and twenty participants (72 males, 48 females) submerged their hand in ice cold (stress) or warm (no stress) water for 3min. Immediately afterwards, they studied a list of 42 words varying in emotional valence and arousal and then completed an immediate free recall test. Twenty-four hours later, participants' memory for the word list was examined via free recall and recognition assessments. Stressed participants exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor had enhanced recall on the 24-h assessment. Importantly, this enhancement was independent of the emotional nature of the learned information. In contrast to previous work, we did not observe a general enhancement of memory for emotional information in ADRA2B deletion carriers. However, stressed female ADRA2B deletion carriers, particularly those exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor, did demonstrate greater recognition memory than all other groups. Collectively, these findings implicate autonomic mechanisms in the pre-learning stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory and suggest that the ADRA2B deletion variant may selectively predict stress effects on memory in females. Such findings lend important insight into the physiological mechanisms underlying stress

  20. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  1. Does early change predict long-term (6 months) improvements in subjects who receive manual therapy for low back pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Chad; Petersen, Shannon; Donaldson, Megan; Wilhelm, Mark; Learman, Ken

    2017-09-01

    Early change is commonly assessed for manual therapy interventions and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, current studies have only explored the relationship of between or within-session changes and short-/medium-term outcomes. The goal of this study was to determine whether pain changes after two weeks of pragmatic manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who demonstrate continued improvements at 6-month follow-up. This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using a 33% and a 50% pain change to predict improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% pain reduction by 2 weeks had 6.98 (95% CI = 1.29, 37.53) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 (95% CI = 1.31, 17.17) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at 6 months). Subjects who reported a ≥50% pain reduction at 2 weeks had 5.98 (95% CI = 1.56, 22.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 (95% CI = 1.23, 12.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). Future studies may investigate whether a change in plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvement predictive of a good long-term outcome.

  2. Prediction of long-term absence due to sickness in employees: development and validation of a multifactorial risk score in two cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airaksinen, Jaakko; Jokela, Markus; Virtanen, Marianna; Oksanen, Tuula; Koskenvuo, Markku; Pentti, Jaana; Vahtera, Jussi; Kivimäki, Mika

    2018-01-24

    Objectives This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for long-term sickness absence. Methods Survey responses on work- and lifestyle-related questions from 65 775 public-sector employees were linked to sickness absence records to develop a prediction score for medically-certified sickness absence lasting >9 days and ≥90 days. The score was externally validated using data from an independent population-based cohort of 13 527 employees. For both sickness absence outcomes, a full model including 46 candidate predictors was reduced to a parsimonious model using least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. Predictive performance of the model was evaluated using C-index and calibration plots. Results Variance explained in ≥90-day sickness absence by the full model was 12.5%. In the parsimonious model, the predictors included self-rated health (linear and quadratic term), depression, sex, age (linear and quadratic), socioeconomic position, previous sickness absences, number of chronic diseases, smoking, shift work, working night shift, and quadratic terms for body mass index and Jenkins sleep scale. The discriminative ability of the score was good (C-index 0.74 in internal and 0.73 in external validation). Calibration plots confirmed high correspondence between the predicted and observed risk. In >9-day sickness absence, the full model explained 15.2% of the variance explained, but the C-index of the parsimonious model was poor (<0.65). Conclusions Individuals' risk of a long-term sickness absence that lasts ≥90 days can be estimated using a brief risk score. The predictive performance of this score is comparable to those for established multifactorial risk algorithms for cardiovascular disease, such as the Framingham risk score.

  3. Beyond Initial Encoding: Measures of the Post-Encoding Status of Memory Traces Predict Long-Term Recall during Infancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

    2013-01-01

    The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the current research we contributed to an explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old…

  4. SALTO guidelines. Guidelines for peer review of long term operation and ageing management of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The average age of nuclear power plants (NPPs) connected to the grid worldwide is increasing. About 20% of all the power reactors operating worldwide have been in operation for more than 30 years, and almost 50% have been in operation for 20 to 30 years, while a rather limited number of new NPPs are being put into operation. In view of this trend, many countries are giving a high priority to continuing the operation of NPPs beyond the time frame originally anticipated (e.g. 30 or 40 years). Long term operation (LTO) for NPPs is operation beyond the established time frame originally set forth by the license term, design limits, standards or regulations. LTO needs to be justified by a safety assessment considering life limiting processes and features for structures, systems and components. Proper and safe LTO is based on the experience and practices of various countries in areas such as plant license renewal, life extension, continued operation and life management. Other activities, including periodic safety review, ageing management and plant modification, are also relevant to LTO. Ageing management of an NPP is an important activity that must be considered before and in conjunction with the decision to enter LTO. Ageing management of NPPs deals with the physical ageing of structures, systems and components (SSCs) that can result in the degradation of their performance characteristics. Thus ageing management helps ensure that SSCs important to safety remain capable of performing their required safety functions. An effective ageing management programme (AMP) is a key element of the safe and reliable operation of NPPs during the originally planned time frame originally planned for their operation, as well as for the period of LTO. In order to assist Member States in managing ageing effectively, the IAEA is developing related safety standards and guidance publications. International peer review is a useful tool for Member States to exchange experience, learn from each

  5. LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE OF SOLID OXIDE STACKS WITH ELECTRODE-SUPPORTED CELLS OPERATING IN THE STEAM ELECTROLYSIS MODE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. E. O' Brien; R. C. O' Brien; X. Zhang; G. Tao; B. J. Butler

    2011-11-01

    Performance characterization and durability testing have been completed on two five-cell high-temperature electrolysis stacks constructed with advanced cell and stack technologies. The solid oxide cells incorporate a negative-electrode-supported multi-layer design with nickel-zirconia cermet negative electrodes, thin-film yttria-stabilized zirconia electrolytes, and multi-layer lanthanum ferrite-based positive electrodes. The per-cell active area is 100 cm2. The stack is internally manifolded with compliant mica-glass seals. Treated metallic interconnects with integral flow channels separate the cells. Stack compression is accomplished by means of a custom spring-loaded test fixture. Initial stack performance characterization was determined through a series of DC potential sweeps in both fuel cell and electrolysis modes of operation. Results of these sweeps indicated very good initial performance, with area-specific resistance values less than 0.5 ?.cm2. Long-term durability testing was performed with A test duration of 1000 hours. Overall performance degradation was less than 10% over the 1000-hour period. Final stack performance characterization was again determined by a series of DC potential sweeps at the same flow conditions as the initial sweeps in both electrolysis and fuel cell modes of operation. A final sweep in the fuel cell mode indicated a power density of 0.356 W/cm2, with average per-cell voltage of 0.71 V at a current of 50 A.

  6. Long-term prediction of chaotic time series with multi-step prediction horizons by a neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirzaee, Hossein

    2009-01-01

    The Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is applied for training a multilayer perception with three hidden layer each with ten neurons in order to carefully map the structure of chaotic time series such as Mackey-Glass time series. First the MLP network is trained with 1000 data, and then it is tested with next 500 data. After that the trained and tested network is applied for long-term prediction of next 120 data which come after test data. The prediction is such a way that, the first inputs to network for prediction are the four last data of test data, then the predicted value is shifted to the regression vector which is the input to the network, then after first four-step of prediction, the input regression vector to network is fully predicted values and in continue, each predicted data is shifted to input vector for subsequent prediction.

  7. Environmental factors predict the severity of delirium symptoms in long-term care residents with and without delirium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Voyer, Philippe; Vu, Minh; Ciampi, Antonio; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Belzile, Eric; Dyachenko, Alina

    2013-04-01

    To identify potentially modifiable environmental factors (including number of medications) associated with changes over time in the severity of delirium symptoms and to explore the interactions between these factors and resident baseline vulnerability. Prospective, observational cohort study. Seven long-term care (LTC) facilities. Two hundred seventy-two LTC residents aged 65 and older with and without delirium. Weekly assessments (for up to 6 months) of the severity of delirium symptoms using the Delirium Index (DI), environmental risk factors, and number of medications. Baseline vulnerability measures included a diagnosis of dementia and a delirium risk score. Associations between environmental factors, medications, and weekly changes in DI were analyzed using a general linear model with correlated errors. Six potentially modifiable environmental factors predicted weekly changes in DI (absence of reading glasses, aids to orientation, family member, and glass of water and presence of bed rails and other restraints) as did the prescription of two or more new medications. Residents with dementia appeared to be more sensitive to the effects of these factors. Six environmental factors and prescription of two or more new medications predicted changes in the severity of delirium symptoms. These risk factors are potentially modifiable through improved LTC clinical practices. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, The American Geriatrics Society.

  8. Long term outcomes of bilateral congenital and developmental cataracts operated in Maharashtra, India. Miraj pediatric cataract study III

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parikshit M Gogate

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim : To study long term outcome of bilateral congenital and developmental cataract surgery. Subjects: 258 pediatric cataract operated eyes of 129 children. Materials and Methods: Children who underwent pediatric cataract surgery in 2004-8 were traced and examined prospectively in 2010-11. Demographic and clinical factors were noted from retrospective chart readings. All children underwent visual acuity estimation and comprehensive ocular examination in a standardized manner. L. V. Prasad Child Vision Function scores (LVP-CVF were noted for before and after surgery. Statistics: Statistical analysis was done with SPSS version 16 including multi-variate analysis. Results: Children aged 9.1 years (std dev 4.6, range 7 weeks-15 years at the time of surgery. 74/129 (57.4% were boys. The average duration of follow-up was 4.4 years (stddev 1.6, range 3-8 years. 177 (68.6% eyes had vision 6/18 and 157 (60.9% had BCVA >6/60 3-8 years after surgery. 48 (37.2% had binocular stereoacuity <480 sec of arc by TNO test. Visual outcome depended on type of cataract (P = 0.004, type of cataract surgery (P < 0.001, type of intra-ocular lens (P = 0.05, age at surgery (P = 0.004, absence of post-operative uveitis (P = 0.01 and pre-operative vision (P < 0.001, but did not depend on delay (0.612 between diagnosis and surgery. There was a statistically significant improvement for all the 20 questions of the LVP-CVF scale (P < 0.001. Conclusion : Pediatric cataract surgery improved the children′s visual acuity, stereo acuity and vision function. Developmental cataract, use of phacoemulsification, older children and those with better pre-operative vision had betterlong-termoutcomes.

  9. DOE-NE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program and EPRI Long-Term Operations Program. Joint Research and Development Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, Don

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear power has contributed almost 20% of the total amount of electricity generated in the United States over the past two decades. High capacity factors and low operating costs make nuclear power plants (NPPs) some of the most economical power generators available. Further, nuclear power remains the single largest contributor (nearly 70%) of non-greenhouse gas-emitting electric power generation in the United States. Even when major refurbishments are performed to extend operating life, these plants continue to represent cost-effective, low-carbon assets to the nation's electrical generation capability. By the end of 2014, about one-third of the existing domestic fleet will have passed their 40th anniversary of power operations, and about one-half of the fleet will reach the same 40-year mark within this decade. Recognizing the challenges associated with pursuing extended service life of commercial nuclear power plants, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy [NE] and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have established separate but complementary research and development programs (DOE-NE's Light Water Reactor Sustainability [LWRS] Program and EPRI's Long-Term Operations [LTO] Program) to address these challenges. To ensure that a proper linkage is maintained between the programs, DOE-NE and EPRI executed a memorandum of understanding in late 2010 to @@@establish guiding principles under which research activities (between LWRS and LTO) could be coordinated to the benefit of both parties.@@@ This document represents the third annual revision to the initial version (March 2011) of the plan as called for in the memorandum of understanding.

  10. Achievement of high availability in long-term operation and upgrading plan of the LHD superconducting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imagawa, S.; Yanagi, N.; Hamaguchi, S.

    2006-10-01

    The Large Helical Device (LHD) that has been demonstrating high performance of heliotron plasma is the world's largest superconducting system. Availability higher than 98% has been achieved in a long-term continuous operation both in the cryogenic system and in the power supply system. It will be owing not only to the robustness of the systems but also to efforts of maintenance and operation. One big problem is shortage of cryogenic stability of a pair of pool-cooled helical coils. Composite conductors had been developed to attain the sufficient stability at high current density. However, it was revealed that a normal-zone could propagate below the cold-end recovery current by additional heat generation due to the slow current diffusion into a thick pure aluminium stabilizer. Besides, a novel detection system with pick-up coils along the helical coils revealed that normal-zones were initiated near the bottom of the coil where the field is not the highest. Therefore, the cooling condition around the innermost layers, the high field area, will be deteriorated at the bottom of the coil by bubbles gathered by buoyancy. In order to raise the operating currents, methods for improving the cryogenic stability have been examined, and stability tests have been carried out with a model coil and small coil samples. The coil temperature is planned to be lowered from 4.4 K to 3.5 K, and the operating current is expected to be increased from 11.0 kA to 12.0 kA that corresponds to 3.0 T at the major radius of 3.6 m. (author)

  11. DOE-NE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program and EPRI Long-Term Operations Program. Joint Research and Development Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Don

    2014-04-01

    Nuclear power has contributed almost 20% of the total amount of electricity generated in the United States over the past two decades. High capacity factors and low operating costs make nuclear power plants (NPPs) some of the most economical power generators available. Further, nuclear power remains the single largest contributor (nearly 70%) of non-greenhouse gas-emitting electric power generation in the United States. Even when major refurbishments are performed to extend operating life, these plants continue to represent cost-effective, low-carbon assets to the nation’s electrical generation capability. By the end of 2014, about one-third of the existing domestic fleet will have passed their 40th anniversary of power operations, and about one-half of the fleet will reach the same 40-year mark within this decade. Recognizing the challenges associated with pursuing extended service life of commercial nuclear power plants, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have established separate but complementary research and development programs (DOE-NE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability [LWRS] Program and EPRI’s Long-Term Operations [LTO] Program) to address these challenges. To ensure that a proper linkage is maintained between the programs, DOE-NE and EPRI executed a memorandum of understanding in late 2010 to “establish guiding principles under which research activities (between LWRS and LTO) could be coordinated to the benefit of both parties.” This document represents the third annual revision to the initial version (March 2011) of the plan as called for in the memorandum of understanding.

  12. Front/back office considerations in the operational access to long-term care for older people : Findings of a multiple case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schipper, E.C.C.; Meijboom, B.R.; Luijkx, K.G.; Schols, J.M.G.A.

    2013-01-01

    Background Organizations that provide long-term care in the Netherlands are reconsidering the operational access to their services. Principles of operations management, such as front/back office configurations, might improve the redesign of operational access. Once a client gains entrance to the

  13. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Hway Wong

    Full Text Available Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients.Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS, co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings.Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001, compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005, independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern

  14. Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

    2018-05-01

    The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Long-term management of wastes resulting from dismantling operations. Storing the very low-level activity wastes at Morvilliers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duret, F.; Dutzer, M.; Beranger, V.; Lecoq, P.

    2003-01-01

    Extension of dismantling operations in France in the years to come poses the question of availability of long-term waste facility. Large amount of such wastes will be produced after progressive shutdown of the 58 pressurized water reactors now in operation, not before 2010. However, France is already confronted with dismantling of 9 power reactors (6 of which of gas cooled graphite type), the first reprocessing plant at Marcoule, as well as, dismantling of other installations, for instance the CEA reactors or laboratories. The systems of processing the dismantling waste are not different from those used for wastes resulting from nuclear operations. For the high-level or long-term intermediate level activity disposal the debates must start by 2006, as based on the results of the research conducted according to different provisions of the December 30, 1991 law. These wastes represent however small amounts from the dismantling (around 2000 t for the 9 reactors at shutdown) and they will be stored until a decision will be made. A specific storing system should be implemented by 2008-2010 for the graphite wastes (around 23,000 t) which contain significant amount of long-lived radioelements, although their gross activity is low. But the most significant amount will come from low-level or intermediate-level of short lifetime or from wastes of very low activity. The first category is stored at Storage Center at Aube (CSA), its capacity being of 1,000,000 m 3 of drums. The total volume stored by the end of 2002 amounted 136,500 m 3 with an annual delivering of 12-15,000 m 3 at design rate of 30,000 m 3 /y. This center will be able to absorb the flux increase resulting from dismantling of the decommissioned nuclear installations (around 50,000 t from the dismantling of the 9 power reactor). The Center at Aube can be also adapted for storing wastes of large sizes as for instance the lid of the reactor vessel. According to the French regulation, the wastes produced within a

  16. The predictive value of mental health for long-term sickness absence: the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5) compared.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Rugulies, Reiner; Hjarsbech, Pernille U; Bjorner, Jakob Bue

    2013-09-17

    Questionnaires are valuable for population surveys of mental health. Different survey instruments may however give different results. The present study compares two mental health instruments, the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5), in regard to their prediction of long-term sickness absence. Questionnaire data was collected from N = 4153 Danish employees. The questionnaire included the MDI and the MHI-5. The information of long-term sickness absence was obtained from a register. We used Cox regression to calculate covariance adjusted hazard ratios for long-term sickness absence for both measures. Both the MDI and the MHI-5 had a highly significant prediction of long-term sickness absence. A one standard deviation change in score was associated with an increased risk of long-term sickness absence of 27% for the MDI and 37% for the MHI-5. When both measures were included in the same analysis, the MHI-5 performed best. In general population surveys, the MHI-5 is a better predictor of long-term sickness absence than the MDI.

  17. Study of long-term operation of triple-GEM detectors for the high rate environment in CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Merlin, Jeremie Alexandre

    2013-01-01

    The CMS GEM collaboration is working on the possible instrumentation of the high-eta region of the CMS Endcap with Gas Electron Multiplier (GEM) detectors, a technology capable to sustain the hostile environment that will be encountered at the high-luminosity LHC. To ensure the long-term operation of large triple-GEM detectors in the CMS experiment, we are performing a set of studies in order to measure and understand the aging effect of triple-GEM Muon chambers. The aging includes all the processes that lead to a significant degradation of the performances of the detector gain drop, non-uniformity, dark current, discharges and resolution loss. The project is focused on monitoring continuously the response of the detector when irradiated by a source of Cs 137 at CERN in the Gamma Irradiation Facility (GIF). Moreover, the new technology employed for stretching the GEM foils, so called NS2, introduces new, carefully chosen materials and components in the detectors. Outgassing tests are performed in order to va...

  18. Phase and structural transformations in VVER-440 RPV base metal after long-term operation and recovery annealing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshova, E. A.; Gurovich, B. A.; Maltsev, D. A.; Frolov, A. S.; Bukina, Z. V.; Fedotova, S. V.; Saltykov, M. A.; Krikun, E. V.; Erak, D. Yu; Zhurko, D. A.; Safonov, D. V.; Zhuchkov, G. M.

    2018-04-01

    This study was carried out to evaluate the possibility of 1st generation VVER-440 reactors lifetime extension by recovery re-annealing with the respect to base metal (BM). Comprehensive studies of the structure and properties of BM templates (samples cut from the inner surface of the shells in beltline region) of operating VVER-440 reactor (after primary standard recovery annealing 475 °C/150 h and subsequent long-term re-irradiation within reactor pressure vessel (RPV)) were conducted. These templates were also subjected to laboratory re-annealing 475 °C/150 h. TEM, SEM and APT studies of BM after laboratory re-annealing revealed significant recovery of radiation-induced hardening elements (Cu-rich precipitates and dislocation loops). Simultaneously a process of strong phosphorus accumulation at grain boundaries occurs since annealing temperature corresponds to the maximum reversible temper brittleness development. The latter is not observed for VVER-440 weld metal (WM). Comparative assessment of the properties return level for the beltline BM templates after recovery re-annealing 475 °C/150 h showed that it does not reach the one typical for beltline WM after the same annealing.

  19. Guided wave technology for in-service inspection and online monitoring for long term operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertoncini, Francesco; Raugi, Marco; Cappelli, Mauro; Cordella, Francesco; Mazzini, Davide

    2015-01-01

    In-Service Inspection (ISI) and monitoring of all equipment (Systems, Structures and Components, SSCs) of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), are actions aimed at preventing failures both for economical and safety purposes. SSCs ageing due to stresses such as corrosion, load variations, flow conditions, temperature and neutron irradiation can be a potential limit for NPP life extension or operation beyond their license term (Long Term Operation. LTO). ISI has a main role on the actual possibility of LTO assuring the required safety. Guided Waves are structure-borne ultrasonic waves that propagate along the structure confined and guided by its geometric boundaries. Guided Wave Testing can find defect locations through long-range screening using low-frequency waves (from 5 to 250 kHz). The technology is regularly used for pipe testing in the oil and gas industry. In the nuclear industry, regulators are working to standardize monitoring and inspection procedures. To use the technology inside an active plant, operators must solve issues like high temperatures (up to more than 300degC inside a light-water reactor's primary piping), high wall thickness of components in the primary circuit and characteristic defect typologies. Magnetostrictive sensors are expected to overcome such issues due to their physical properties, namely robust constitution and simplicity. Recent experimental results have demonstrated magnetostrictive transducers can withstand temperatures close to 300degC. In this paper, new experimental tests conducted using such a methodology will be described and open issues related to high temperature guided wave applications (e.g. wave velocity or amplitude fluctuations during propagation in variable temperature components) will be discussed. (author)

  20. Does early verbal fluency decline after STN implantation predict long-term cognitive outcome after STN-DBS in Parkinson's disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borden, Alaina; Wallon, David; Lefaucheur, Romain; Derrey, Stéphane; Fetter, Damien; Verin, Marc; Maltête, David

    2014-11-15

    An early and transient verbal fluency (VF) decline and impairment in frontal executive function, suggesting a cognitive microlesion effect may influence the cognitive repercussions related to subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS). Neuropsychological tests including semantic and phonemic verbal fluency were administered both before surgery (baseline), the third day after surgery (T3), at six months (T180), and at an endpoint multiple years after surgery (Tyears). Twenty-four patients (mean age, 63.5 ± 9.5 years; mean disease duration, 12 ± 5.8 years) were included. Both semantic and phonemic VF decreased significantly in the acute post-operative period (44.4 ± 28.2% and 34.3 ± 33.4%, respectively) and remained low at 6 months compared to pre-operative levels (decrease of 3.4 ± 47.8% and 10.8 ± 32.1%) (P < 0.05). Regression analysis showed phonemic VF to be an independent factor of decreased phonemic VF at six months. Age was the only independent predictive factor for incident Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD) (F (4,19)=3.4, P<0.03). An acute post-operative decline in phonemic VF can be predictive of a long-term phonemic VF deficit. The severity of this cognitive lesion effect does not predict the development of dementia which appears to be disease-related. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. True Grit: Trait-level Perseverance and Passion for Long-term Goals Predicts Effectiveness and Retention among Novice Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson-Kraft, Claire; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2014-01-01

    Surprisingly little progress has been made in linking teacher effectiveness and retention to factors observable at the time of hire. The rigors of teaching, particularly in low-income school districts, suggest the importance of personal qualities that have so far been difficult to measure objectively. In this study, we examine the predictive validity of personal qualities not typically collected by school districts during the hiring process. Specifically, we use a psychological framework to explore how biographical data on grit, a disposition toward perseverance and passion for long-term goals, explains variance in novice teachers' effectiveness and retention. In two prospective, longitudinal samples of novice teachers assigned to schools in low-income districts (N = 154 and N = 307, respectively), raters blind to outcomes followed a 7-point rubric to rate grit from information on college activities and work experience extracted from teachers' résumés. We used independent-samples t-tests and binary logistic regression models to predict teacher effectiveness and retention from these grit ratings as well as from other information (e.g., SAT scores, college GPA, interview ratings of leadership potential) available at the time of hire. Grittier teachers outperformed their less gritty colleagues and were less likely to leave their classrooms mid-year. Notably, no other variables in our analysis predicted either effectiveness or retention. These findings contribute to a better understanding of what leads some novice teachers to outperform others and remain committed to the profession. In addition to informing policy decisions surrounding teacher recruitment and development, this investigation highlights the potential of a psychological framework to explain why some individuals are more successful than others in meeting the rigorous demands of teaching.

  2. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Neill J

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Joseph O'Neill,1 Jamie D Feusner,2 1Division of Child Psychiatry, 2Division of Adult Psychiatry, UCLA Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, Los Angeles, CA, USA Abstract: This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD: improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT. Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. Keywords: follow-up, access to treatment, relapse, resting-state fMRI, magnetic resonance spectroscopy

  3. Masculine norms, disclosure, and childhood adversities predict long-term mental distress among men with histories of child sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Scott D

    2014-02-01

    Child sexual abuse (CSA) can have a profound effect on the long-term mental health of boys/men. However, not all men with histories of CSA experience psychopathology. To improve prevention and intervention services, more research is needed to understand why some male survivors experience mental health problems and others do not. The purpose of this study was to examine factors related to mental distress among a large, non-clinical sample of men with histories of CSA (N=487). Using a cross-sectional design with purposive sampling from three national survivor organizations, data were collected through an anonymous Internet-based survey. Multivariate analyses found that only one of the four CSA severity variables-use of physical force by the abuser-was related to mental distress. Additional factors that were related to mental distress included the number of other childhood adversities, years until disclosure, overall response to disclosure, and conformity to masculine norms. Overall, the final model predicted 36% of the variance in the number of mental health symptoms. Mental health practitioners should include masculine norms, disclosure history, and childhood adversities in assessments and intervention planning with male survivors. To more fully explicate risk factors for psychopathology in this population, future studies with probability samples of men that focus on mediational processes and use longitudinal designs are needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Latent profiles of non-residential father engagement six years after divorce predict long term offspring outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene

    2014-01-01

    This study examined profiles of non-residential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) six to eight years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, nine years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of non-residential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed nine years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes nine years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother’s remarriage, mother’s income, and gender, age and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems nine years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long-term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed. PMID:24484456

  5. The Biomarker GlycA Is Associated with Chronic Inflammation and Predicts Long-Term Risk of Severe Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Scott C; Würtz, Peter; Nath, Artika P; Abraham, Gad; Havulinna, Aki S; Fearnley, Liam G; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Kangas, Antti J; Soininen, Pasi; Aalto, Kristiina; Seppälä, Ilkka; Raitoharju, Emma; Salmi, Marko; Maksimow, Mikael; Männistö, Satu; Kähönen, Mika; Juonala, Markus; Ripatti, Samuli; Lehtimäki, Terho; Jalkanen, Sirpa; Perola, Markus; Raitakari, Olli; Salomaa, Veikko; Ala-Korpela, Mika; Kettunen, Johannes; Inouye, Michael

    2015-10-28

    The biomarker glycoprotein acetylation (GlycA) has been shown to predict risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Here, we characterize biological processes associated with GlycA by leveraging population-based omics data and health records from >10,000 individuals. Our analyses show that GlycA levels are chronic within individuals for up to a decade. In apparently healthy individuals, elevated GlycA corresponded to elevation of myriad inflammatory cytokines, as well as a gene coexpression network indicative of increased neutrophil activity, suggesting that individuals with high GlycA may be in a state of chronic inflammatory response. Accordingly, analysis of infection-related hospitalization and death records showed that increased GlycA increased long-term risk of severe non-localized and respiratory infections, particularly septicaemia and pneumonia. In total, our work demonstrates that GlycA is a biomarker for chronic inflammation, neutrophil activity, and risk of future severe infection. It also illustrates the utility of leveraging multi-layered omics data and health records to elucidate the molecular and cellular processes associated with biomarkers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Predicting short-term mortality and long-term survival for hospitalized US patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuthbert, Jennifer A; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W; Shah, Jessica P

    2014-07-01

    No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a US population. We reviewed electronic records for patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD) admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1,761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the previous DF threshold of >32. Admission and theoretical peak scores were calculated by use of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD). Analysis models compared five different scoring systems. INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r (2) = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that survival for 28 days was significantly associated with a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status, and creatinine (p short-term mortality (p 50 % mortality at four weeks and >80 % mortality at six months without specific treatment.

  7. Insulin dependence and pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy are independent prognostic factors for long-term survival after operation for chronic pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winny, Markus; Paroglou, Vagia; Bektas, Hüseyin; Kaltenborn, Alexander; Reichert, Benedikt; Zachau, Lea; Kleine, Moritz; Klempnauer, Jürgen; Schrem, Harald

    2014-02-01

    This retrospective, single-center, observational study on postoperative long-term results aims to define yet unknown factors for long-term outcome after operation for chronic pancreatitis. We analyzed 147 consecutive patients operated for chronic pancreatitis from 2000 to 2011. Mean follow-up was 5.3 years (range, 1 month to 12.7 years). Complete long-term survival data were provided by the German citizen registration authorities for all patients. A quality-of-life questionnaire was sent to surviving patients after a mean follow-up of 5.7 years. Surgical principles were resection (n = 86; 59%), decompression (n = 29; 20%), and hybrid procedures (n = 32; 21%). No significant influences of different surgical principles and operative procedures on survival, long-term quality of life and pain control could be detected. Overall 30-day mortality was 2.7%, 1-year survival 95.9%, and 3-year survival 90.8%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that only postoperative insulin dependence at the time of hospital discharge (P = .027; Exp(B) = 2.111; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.089-4.090) and the absence of pancreas enzyme replacement therapy at the time of hospital discharge (P = .039; Exp(B) = 2.102; 95% CI, 1.037-4.262) were significant, independent risk factors for survival with significant hazard ratios for long-term survival. Long-term improvement in quality of life was reported by 55 of 76 long-term survivors (73%). Pancreatic enzyme replacement should be standard treatment after surgery for chronic pancreatitis at the time of hospital discharge, even when no clinical signs of exocrine pancreatic failure exist. This study underlines the potential importance of early operative intervention in chronic pancreatitis before irreversible endocrine dysfunction is present. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Beyond initial encoding: Measures of the post-encoding status of memory traces predict long-term recall in infancy

    OpenAIRE

    Pathman, Thanujeni; Bauer, Patricia J.

    2012-01-01

    The first years of life are witness to rapid changes in long-term recall ability. In the present research, we contributed to explanation of the changes by testing the absolute and relative contributions to long-term recall of encoding and post-encoding processes. Using elicited imitation, we sampled the status of 16-, 20-, and 24-month-old infants’ memory representations at various time points after experience of events. In Experiment 1, infants were tested immediately, 1 week after encoding,...

  9. Degradation of Alloy 800 steam generator tubing and its long-term behaviour predictions for plant life management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Y.C.; Tapping, R.L.; Pandey, M.D.

    2009-01-01

    results imply that Alloy 800 SG tubing may experience measurable aging after many years of service. Although these preliminary results require further confirmation, special attention should be paid to manage the SG tubing degradation in a proactive and predictable manner. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Dominion Engineering, Inc. (DEI) have developed probabilistic approaches using a degradation free lifetime Weibull distribution based on the OPEX of Alloy 600 SG tubing and a concept of materials improvement factors (MIFs) to 'predict' the long-term service behaviour of other SG tubing. In this paper, a new concept, 'corrosion stress cycle analysis' (CSCA) based on the concept of 'Fatigue Usage Factor' used in mechanical design, is proposed here as a guide for predictive and proactive SG life management. The CSCA approach assumes that an alloy can tolerate a certain number of corrosion stress cycles, i.e., excursions due to off-specification (assuming that the specifications are appropriate) chemistry conditions and SG transients etc. Using the in-service experience, the number of stress cycles that occurred in the history of a SG and in the future can be estimated and the Alloy 800 SG tubing long-term degradation can then be predicted. (author)

  10. Singlet oxygen explicit dosimetry to predict long-term local tumor control for BPD-mediated photodynamic therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Michele M.; Penjweini, Rozhin; Ong, Yi Hong; Zhu, Timothy C.

    2017-02-01

    Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a well-established treatment modality for cancer and other malignant diseases; however, quantities such as light fluence, photosensitizer photobleaching rate, and PDT dose do not fully account for all of the dynamic interactions between the key components involved. In particular, fluence rate (Φ) effects are not accounted for, which has a large effect on the oxygen consumption rate. In this preclinical study, reacted singlet oxygen [1O2]rx was investigated as a dosimetric quantity for PDT outcome. The ability of [1O2]rx to predict the long-term local tumor control rate (LCR) for BPD-mediated PDT was examined. Mice bearing radioactivelyinduced fibrosarcoma (RIF) tumors were treated with different in-air fluences (250, 300, and 350 J/cm2) and in-air ϕ (75, 100, and150 mW/cm2) with a BPD dose of 1 mg/kg and a drug-light interval of 3 hours. Treatment was delivered with a collimated laser beam of 1 cm diameter at 690 nm. Explicit dosimetry of initial tissue oxygen concentration, tissue optical properties, and BPD concentration was used to calculate [1O2]rx. Φ was calculated for the treatment volume based on Monte-Carlo simulations and measured tissue optical properties. Kaplan-Meier analyses for LCR were done for an endpoint of tumor volume defined as the product of the timeintegral of photosensitizer concentration and Φ at a 3 mm tumor depth. Preliminary studies show that [1O2]rx better correlates with LCR and is an effective dosimetric quantity that can predict treatment outcome.

  11. Singlet oxygen explicit dosimetry to predict long-term local tumor control for Photofrin-mediated photodynamic therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penjweini, Rozhin; Kim, Michele M.; Ong, Yi Hong; Zhu, Timothy C.

    2017-02-01

    Although photodynamic therapy (PDT) is an established modality for the treatment of cancer, current dosimetric quantities do not account for the variations in PDT oxygen consumption for different fluence rates (φ). In this study we examine the efficacy of reacted singlet oxygen concentration ([1O2]rx) to predict long-term local control rate (LCR) for Photofrin-mediated PDT. Radiation-induced fibrosarcoma (RIF) tumors in the right shoulders of female C3H mice are treated with different in-air fluences of 225-540 J/cm2 and in-air fluence rate (φair) of 50 and 75 mW/cm2 at 5 mg/kg Photofrin and a drug-light interval of 24 hours using a 1 cm diameter collimated laser beam at 630 nm wavelength. [1O2]rx is calculated by using a macroscopic model based on explicit dosimetry of Photofrin concentration, tissue optical properties, tissue oxygenation and blood flow changes during PDT. The tumor volume of each mouse is tracked for 90 days after PDT and Kaplan-Meier analyses for LCR are performed based on a tumor volume defined as a temporal integral of photosensitizer concentration and Φ at a 3 mm tumor depth. φ is calculated throughout the treatment volume based on Monte-Carlo simulation and measured tissue optical properties. Our preliminary studies show that [1O2]rx is the best dosimetric quantity that can predict tumor response and correlate with LCR. Moreover, [1O2]rx calculated using the blood flow changes was in agreement with [1O2]rx calculated based on the actual tissue oxygenation.

  12. [Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

    2016-01-26

    To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

  13. Computer-Aided Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis of Patients with Ulcerative Colitis after Cytoapheresis Therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuro Takayama

    Full Text Available Cytoapheresis (CAP therapy is widely used in ulcerative colitis (UC patients with moderate to severe activity in Japan. The aim of this study is to predict the need of operation after CAP therapy of UC patients on an individual level using an artificial neural network system (ANN. Ninety UC patients with moderate to severe activity were treated with CAP. Data on the patients' demographics, medication, clinical activity index (CAI and efficacy of CAP were collected. Clinical data were divided into training data group and validation data group and analyzed using ANN to predict individual outcomes. The sensitivity and specificity of predictive expression by ANN were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. Events of admission, operation, and use of immunomodulator, and efficacy of CAP were significantly correlated to the outcome. Requirement of operation after CAP therapy was successfully predicted by using ANN. This newly established ANN strategy would be used as powerful support of physicians in the clinical practice.

  14. Statistical Analysis of CO2 Exposed Wells to Predict Long Term Leakage through the Development of an Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Boyun [Univ. of Louisiana, Lafayette, LA (United States); Duguid, Andrew [Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States); Nygaard, Ronar [Missouri Univ. of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO (United States)

    2017-08-05

    The objective of this project is to develop a computerized statistical model with the Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm (INGA) for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO2 sequestration operations. This object has been accomplished by conducting research in three phases: 1) data mining of CO2-explosed wells, 2) INGA computer model development, and 3) evaluation of the predictive performance of the computer model with data from field tests. Data mining was conducted for 510 wells in two CO2 sequestration projects in the Texas Gulf Coast region. They are the Hasting West field and Oyster Bayou field in the Southern Texas. Missing wellbore integrity data were estimated using an analytical and Finite Element Method (FEM) model. The INGA was first tested for performances of convergence and computing efficiency with the obtained data set of high dimension. It was concluded that the INGA can handle the gathered data set with good accuracy and reasonable computing time after a reduction of dimension with a grouping mechanism. A computerized statistical model with the INGA was then developed based on data pre-processing and grouping. Comprehensive training and testing of the model were carried out to ensure that the model is accurate and efficient enough for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO2 sequestration operations. The Cranfield in the southern Mississippi was select as the test site. Observation wells CFU31F2 and CFU31F3 were used for pressure-testing, formation-logging, and cement-sampling. Tools run in the wells include Isolation Scanner, Slim Cement Mapping Tool (SCMT), Cased Hole Formation Dynamics Tester (CHDT), and Mechanical Sidewall Coring Tool (MSCT). Analyses of the obtained data indicate no leak of CO2 cross the cap zone while it is evident that the well cement sheath was invaded by the CO2 from the storage zone. This observation is consistent

  15. Pre- and Posttransplant IgA Anti-Fab Antibodies to Predict Long-term Kidney Graft Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirzargar, M A; Amirzargar, A; Basiri, A; Hajilooi, M; Roshanaei, G; Rajabi, G; Solgi, G

    2015-05-01

    Immunologic factors are reliable markers for allograft monitoring, because of their seminal role in rejection process. One of these factors is the immunoglobulin (Ig)A anti-Fab of the IgG antibody. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of pre- and posttransplant levels of this marker for kidney allograft function and survival. Sera samples of 59 living unrelated donor kidney recipients were collected before and after transplantation (days 7, 14, and 30) and investigated for IgA anti-Fab of IgG antibody levels using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in relation with allograft outcome. Among 59 patients, 15 cases (25%) including 10 with acute rejection and 5 with chronic rejection episodes showed graft failure during a mean of 5 years of follow-up. High posttransplant levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies were observed more frequently in patients with stable graft function (SGF) compared with patients with graft failure (P = 2 × 10(-6)). None of patients with acute or chronic rejection episodes had high levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies at day 30 posttransplant compared with the SGF group (P = 10(-6) and P = .01, respectively). In addition, high levels of IgA anti-Fab antibody correlated with lesser concentration of serum creatinine at 1 month posttransplantation (P = .01). Five-year graft survival was associated with high levels of pre- and posttransplant IgA anti-Fab antibodies (P = .02 and P = .003, respectively). Our findings indicate the protective effect of higher levels of IgA anti-Fab antibodies regarding to kidney allograft outcomes and long-term graft survival. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Joint ultrasound baseline abnormalities predict a specific long-term clinical outcome in systemic lupus erythematosus patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corzo, P; Salman-Monte, T C; Torrente-Segarra, V; Polino, L; Mojal, S; Carbonell-Abelló, J

    2017-06-01

    Objective To describe long-term clinical and serological outcome in all systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) domains in SLE patients with hand arthralgia (HA) and joint ultrasound (JUS) inflammatory abnormalities, and to compare them with asymptomatic SLE patients with normal JUS. Methods SLE patients with HA who presented JUS inflammatory abnormalities ('cases') and SLE patients without HA who did not exhibit JUS abnormalities at baseline ('controls') were included. All SLE clinical and serological domain involvement data were collected. End follow-up clinical activity and damage scores (systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index (SLEDAI), Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR)) were recorded. JUS inflammatory abnormalities were defined based on the Proceedings of the Seventh International Consensus Conference on Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT-7) definitions. Statistical analyses were carried out to compare 'cases' and 'controls'. Results A total of 35 patients were recruited. The 'cases', n = 18/35, had a higher incidence of musculoskeletal involvement (arthralgia and/or arthritis) through the follow-up period (38.9% vs 0%, p = 0.008) and received more hydroxychloroquine (61.1% vs 25.0%, p = 0.034) and methotrexate (27.8% vs 0%, p = 0.046) compared to 'controls', n = 17/35. Other comparisons did not reveal any statistical differences. Conclusions We found SLE patients with arthralgia who presented JUS inflammatory abnormalities received more hydroxychloroquine and methotrexate, mainly due to persistent musculoskeletal involvement over time. JUS appears to be a useful technique for predicting worse musculoskeletal outcome in SLE patients.

  17. Dynamic imaging response following radiation therapy predicts long-term outcomes for diffuse low-grade gliomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallud, Johan; Llitjos, Jean-François; Dhermain, Frédéric; Varlet, Pascale; Dezamis, Edouard; Devaux, Bertrand; Souillard-Scémama, Raphaëlle; Sanai, Nader; Koziak, Maria; Page, Philippe; Schlienger, Michel; Daumas-Duport, Catherine; Meder, Jean-François; Oppenheim, Catherine; Roux, François-Xavier

    2012-04-01

    Quantitative imaging assessment of radiation therapy (RT) for diffuse low-grade gliomas (DLGG) by measuring the velocity of diametric expansion (VDE) over time has never been studied. We assessed the VDE changes following RT and determined whether this parameter can serve as a prognostic factor. We reviewed a consecutive series of 33 adults with supratentorial DLGG treated with first-line RT with available imaging follow-up (median follow-up, 103 months). Before RT, all patients presented with a spontaneous tumor volume increase (positive VDE, mean 5.9 mm/year). After RT, all patients demonstrated a tumor volume decrease (negative VDE, mean, -16.7 mm/year) during a mean 49-month duration. In univariate analysis, initial tumor volume (>100 cm(3)), lack of IDH1 expression, p53 expression, high proliferation index, and fast post-RT tumor volume decrease (VDE at -10 mm/year or faster, fast responders) were associated with a significantly shorter overall survival (OS). The median OS was significantly longer (120.8 months) for slow responders (post-RT VDE slower than -10.0 mm/year) than for fast responders (47.9 months). In multivariate analysis, fast responders, larger initial tumor volume, lack of IDH1 expression, and p53 expression were independent poor prognostic factors for OS. A high proliferation index was significantly more frequent in the fast responder subgroup than in the slow responder subgroup. We conclude that the pattern of post-RT VDE changes is an independent prognostic factor for DLGG and offers a quantitative parameter to predict long-term outcomes. We propose to monitor individually the post-RT VDE changes using MRI follow-up, with particular attention to fast responders.

  18. Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

  19. Predicting the impact of long-term temperature changes on the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis: a mechanistic model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara D Mangal

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Many parasites of medical and veterinary importance are transmitted by cold-blooded intermediate hosts or vectors, the abundance of which will vary with ambient temperatures, potentially altering disease prevalence. In particular, if global climate change will increase mean ambient temperature in a region endemic with a human pathogen then it is possible that the incidence of disease will similarly increase. Here we examine this possibility by using a mathematical model to explore the effects of increasing long-term mean ambient temperature on the prevalence and abundance of the parasite Schistosoma mansoni, the causative agent of schistosomiasis in humans.The model showed that the impact of temperature on disease prevalence and abundance is not straightforward; the mean infection burden in humans increases up to 30 degrees C, but then crashes at 35 degrees C, primarily due to increased mortalities of the snail intermediate host. In addition, increased temperatures changed the dynamics of disease from stable, endemic infection to unstable, epidemic cycles at 35 degrees C. However, the prevalence of infection was largely unchanged by increasing temperatures. Temperature increases also affected the response of the model to changes in each parameter, indicating certain control strategies may become less effective with local temperature changes. At lower temperatures, the most effective single control strategy is to target the adult parasites through chemotherapy. However, as temperatures increase, targeting the snail intermediate hosts, for example through molluscicide use, becomes more effective.These results show that S. mansoni will not respond to increased temperatures in a linear fashion, and the optimal control strategy is likely to change as temperatures change. It is only through a mechanistic approach, incorporating the combined effects of temperature on all stages of the life-cycle, that we can begin to predict the consequences of climate

  20. Functional interpretation of metabolomics data as a new method for predicting long-term side effects: treatment of atopic dermatitis in infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seul Ji; Woo, Sung-il; Ahn, Soo Hyun; Lim, Dong Kyu; Hong, Ji Yeon; Park, Jeong Hill; Lim, Johan; Kim, Mi-kyeong; Kwon, Sung Won

    2014-12-10

    Topical steroids are used for the treatment of primary atopic dermatitis (AD); however, their associated risk of serious complications is great due to the presence of vulnerable lesions in young children with AD. Topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCIs) are steroid-free, anti-inflammatory agents used for topical AD therapy. However, their use is prohibited in infants side effects. The 1% pimecrolimus cream displayed similar efficacy and exceptional safety compared with the 0.05% desonide cream. Metabolomics-based long-term toxicity tests effectively predicted long-term side effects using short-term clinical models. This applicable method for the functional interpretation of metabolomics data sets the foundation for future studies involving the prediction of the toxicity and systemic reactions caused by long-term medication administration.

  1. Predicting long-term average concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants using GIS-based information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochadel, Matthias; Heinrich, Joachim; Gehring, Ulrike; Morgenstern, Verena; Kuhlbusch, Thomas; Link, Elke; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Krämer, Ursula

    Global regression models were developed to estimate individual levels of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollutants. The models are based on data of a one-year measurement programme including geographic data on traffic and population densities. This investigation is part of a cohort study on the impact of traffic-related air pollution on respiratory health, conducted at the westerly end of the Ruhr-area in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany. Concentrations of NO 2, fine particle mass (PM 2.5) and filter absorbance of PM 2.5 as a marker for soot were measured at 40 sites spread throughout the study region. Fourteen-day samples were taken between March 2002 and March 2003 for each season and site. Annual average concentrations for the sites were determined after adjustment for temporal variation. Information on traffic counts in major roads, building densities and community population figures were collected in a geographical information system (GIS). This information was used to calculate different potential traffic-based predictors: (a) daily traffic flow and maximum traffic intensity of buffers with radii from 50 to 10 000 m and (b) distances to main roads and highways. NO 2 concentration and PM 2.5 absorbance were strongly correlated with the traffic-based variables. Linear regression prediction models, which involved predictors with radii of 50 to 1000 m, were developed for the Wesel region where most of the cohort members lived. They reached a model fit ( R2) of 0.81 and 0.65 for NO 2 and PM 2.5 absorbance, respectively. Regression models for the whole area required larger spatial scales and reached R2=0.90 and 0.82. Comparison of predicted values with NO 2 measurements at independent public monitoring stations showed a satisfactory association ( r=0.66). PM 2.5 concentration, however, was only slightly correlated and thus poorly predictable by traffic-based variables ( rGIS-based regression models offer a promising approach to assess individual levels of

  2. Sphincter preservation with pre-operative radiation therapy (RT) and coloanal anastomosis: long term follow-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagman, Raquel; Minsky, Bruce D.; Cohen, Alfred M.; Guillem, Jose G.; Paty, Philip B.

    1997-01-01

    PURPOSE: To determine the long term follow-up of sphincter preservation with pre-operative RT and coloanal anastomosis for rectal cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 36 pts (M:25, F:11) with invasive, clinically resectable, primary adenocarcinoma of the rectum were enrolled from 1/87 through 4/96 on a prospective Phase I/II trial. All patients were examined in the office by their operating surgeon prior to the start of RT and were judged clinically to require an abdominoperineal resection (APR) due to the proximity (but not invasion of) the tumor to the anal sphincter. By transrectal ultrasound, clinical T stage was T2:5, and T3:31. The median age was 55 years (range: 33-76 years), and the median distance from the anal verge was 4 cm (range: 3-7 cm). The median tumor size was 3.8 cm (range: 1.5-7 cm). Pts received 4680 cGy (180 cGy/day) to the whole pelvis followed by a boost to 5040 cGy followed by surgery 4-5 weeks later. Although no chemotherapy was delivered concurrently with RT, patients with pathologically positive pelvic nodes (13) or metastatic disease (6) received post-operative 5-FU based chemotherapy. All underwent fecal diversion which was closed 2-4 months post-op. Sphincter function was performed using a telephone survey according to the MSKCC sphincter function scale (Excellent: 1-2 bowel movements/day, no soilage, Good: 3-4 bowel movements/day, and/or mild soilage, fair: Episodic > 4 bowel movements/day, and/or moderate soilage, and Poor: incontinence). Actuarial calculations were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The median follow-up was 56 months (range: 4-121 months). RESULTS: Of the 35 patients who underwent surgery (1 pt with unresectable liver mets did not undergo surgery) (27(35)) (77%) were able to undergo a coloanal anastomosis and the pathological complete response rate was 14%. Post-operative complications included 1 (3%) partial anastamotic disruption, 2 (6%) rectal stenosis, and 1 (3%) pelvic abscess. For the total group of

  3. Long-term outcome in rheumatoid arthritis: a simple algorithm of baseline parameters can predict radiographic damage, disability, and disease course at 12-year followup

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drossaers-Bakker, K. W.; Zwinderman, A. H.; Vliet Vlieland, T. P. M.; van Zeben, D.; Vos, K.; Breedveld, F. C.; Hazes, J. M. W.

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To predict the long-term outcome of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with respect to radiographic damage, disability, and disease course using baseline variables, and to construct decision trees identifying patients on an individual level at the extremes of the outcome spectrum of these 3

  4. The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhoff, Andrew D.; Wood, Robin; Cobelens, Frank G.; Gupta-Wright, Ankur; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Lawn, Stephen D.

    2015-01-01

    Low haemoglobin concentrations may be predictive of incident tuberculosis (TB) and death in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), but data are limited and inconsistent. We examined these relationships retrospectively in a long-term South African ART cohort with multiple

  5. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mansson, K.N.T.; Frick, A.; Boraxbekk, C.J.; Marquand, A.F.; Williams, S.C.; Carlbring, P.; Andersson, G.; Furmark, T.

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge.

  6. Predicting long-term mortality after Fontan procedures: A risk score based on 6707 patients from 28 studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alsaied, Tarek; Bokma, Jouke P.; Engel, Mark E.; Kuijpers, Joey M.; Hanke, Samuel P.; Zuhlke, Liesl; Zhang, Bin; Veldtman, Gruschen R.

    2017-01-01

    Reported long-term outcome measures vary greatly between studies in Fontan patients making comprehensive appraisal of mortality hazard challenging. We sought to create a clinical risk score to assist monitoring of Fontan patients in the outpatient setting. A systematic review was conducted to

  7. Application of supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) to predict bioremediation efficacy of long-term composting of PAH-contaminated soil

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cajthaml, Tomáš; Šašek, Václav

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 21 (2005), s. 8448-8452 ISSN 0013-936X R&D Projects: GA ČR GP206/03/P078 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : SFE * long-term composting * PAH Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 4.054, year: 2005

  8. Can We "Predict" Long-Term Outcome for Ambulatory Transcutaneous Electrical Nerve Stimulation in Patients with Chronic Pain?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koke, A.J.; Smeets, R.J.E.M.; Perez, R.S.G.M.; Kessels, A.; Winkens, B.; van Kleef, M.; Patijn, J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Evidence for effectiveness of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS) is still inconclusive. As heterogeneity of chronic pain patients might be an important factor for this lack of efficacy, identifying factors for a successful long-term outcome is of great importance.

  9. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study)123

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-01-01

    Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing <5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve’s capacity to classify participants likely to lose <5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Results: Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). Conclusions: The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. The POUNDS Lost study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00072995. PMID:25733628

  10. Sulfur poisoning of Ni/Gadolinium-doped ceria anodes: A long-term study outlining stable solid oxide fuel cell operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegraf, Matthias; Zekri, Atef; Knipper, Martin; Costa, Rémi; Schiller, Günter; Friedrich, K. Andreas

    2018-03-01

    This work presents an analysis of the long-term behavior of nickel/gadolinium-doped ceria (CGO) anode-based solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) under sulfur poisoning conditions. A parameter study of sulfur-induced irreversible long-term degradation of commercial, high-performance single cells was carried out at 900 °C for different H2/N2/H2S fuel gas atmospheres, current densities and Ni/CGO anodes. The poisoning periods of the cells varied from 200 to 1500 h. The possibility of stable long-term Ni/CGO anode operation under sulfur exposure is established and the critical operating regime is outlined. Depending on the operating conditions, two degradation phenomena can be observed. Small degradation of the ohmic resistance was witnessed for sulfur exposure times of approximately 1000 h. Moreover, degradation of the anode charge transfer resistance was observed to be triggered by the combination of a small anodic potential step and high sulfur coverage on Ni. The microstructural evolution of altered Ni/CGO anodes was examined post-mortem by means of SEM and FIB/SEM, and is correlated to the anode performance degradation under critical operating conditions, establishing Ni depletion, porosity increase and a tripe phase boundary density decrease in the anode functional layer. It is shown that short-term sulfur poisoning behavior can be used to assess long-term stability.

  11. Prediction of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Di Wu

    Full Text Available This study examined the predictors of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis.A total of 280 patients with moderate to severe chronic periodontitis in a tertiary care hospital in China were investigated and followed over the course of study. Questionnaires on clinical and demographic characteristics, self-efficacy for oral self-care and dental fear at baseline were completed. Participants were followed to determine whether they could adhere to long-term supportive periodontal therapy. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between clinical and demographic characteristics, self-efficacy for oral self-care, dental fear and loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy.The loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy was significantly associated with age [adjusted OR = 1.042, 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.012-1.074, p = 0.006], severe periodontitis [adjusted OR = 4.892, 95%CI: 2.280-10.499, p<0.001], periodontal surgery [adjusted OR = 11.334, 95% CI: 2.235-57.472, p = 0.003], and middle and low-scoring of self-efficacy scale for self-care groups. The adjusted ORs of loss to follow-up for the middle- (54-59 and low-scoring groups (15-53 were 71.899 (95%CI: 23.926-216.062, p<0.001 and 4.800 (95% CI: 2.263-10.182, p<0.001, respectively, compared with the high-scoring SESS group (60-75.Age, severity of periodontitis, periodontal surgery and the level of self-efficacy for self-care may be effective predictors of loss to follow-up in long-term supportive periodontal therapy in patients with chronic periodontitis.

  12. A Japanese Stress Check Program screening tool predicts employee long-term sickness absence: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Shimazu, Akihito; Eguchi, Hisashi; Inoue, Akiomi; Kawakami, Norito

    2018-01-25

    On December 1, 2015, the Japanese government launched the Stress Check Program, a new occupational health policy to screen employees for high psychosocial stress in the workplace. As only weak evidence exists for the effectiveness of the program, we sought to estimate the risk of stress-associated long-term sickness absence as defined in the program manual. Participants were 7356 male and 7362 female employees in a financial service company who completed the Brief Job Stress Questionnaire (BJSQ). We followed them for 1 year and used company records to identify employees with sickness absence of 1 month or longer. We defined high-risk employees using the BJSQ and criteria recommended by the program manual. We used the Cox proportional regression model to evaluate the prospective association between stress and long-term sickness absence. During the follow-up period, we identified 34 male and 35 female employees who took long-term sickness absence. After adjustment for age, length of service, job type, position, and post-examination interview, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident long-term sickness absence in high-stress employees were 6.59 (3.04-14.25) for men and 2.77 (1.32-5.83) for women. The corresponding population attributable risks for high stress were 23.8% (10.3-42.6) for men and 21.0% (4.6-42.1) for women. During the 1-year follow-up, employees identified as high stress (as defined by the Stress Check Program manual) had significantly elevated risks for long-term sickness absence.

  13. Long-term characteristics of geological conditions in Japan. Pt. 1. Fundamental concept for future's prediction of geological conditions and the subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Kazuhiro; Chigira, Masahiro.

    1997-01-01

    It is very important to evaluate the long-term stability of geological conditions such as volcanic activity, uplift-subsidence, earthquakes, faulting and sea level change when the long-term safety performance of HLW geological disposal is investigated. We proposed the extrapolation method using the geological date obtained in the geologic time of the last 500 ka to predict the future's tectonic movements in Japan. Furthermore, we extract geological conditions that would affect the long-term safety of HLW geological disposal with regard to direct and indirect radionuclide release scenarios. As a result, it was concluded that volcanic activity and tectonic movements including faulting and uplift-subsidence, should be considered and their surveying system and evaluating method should be developed. (author)

  14. Pre-operative stroke and neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in infective endocarditis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diab, Mahmoud; Guenther, Albrecht; Sponholz, Christoph; Lehmann, Thomas; Faerber, Gloria; Matz, Anna; Franz, Marcus; Witte, Otto W; Pletz, Mathias W; Doenst, Torsten

    2016-10-01

    Infective endocarditis (IE) is still associated with high morbidity and mortality. The impact of pre-operative stroke on mortality and long-term survival is controversial. In addition, data on the severity of neurological disability due to pre-operative stroke are scarce. We analysed the impact of pre-operative stroke and the severity of its related neurological disability on short- and long-term outcome. We retrospectively reviewed our data from patients operated for left-sided IE between 01/2007 and 04/2013. We performed univariate (Chi-Square and independent samples t test) and multivariate analyses. Among 308 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac surgery for left-sided IE, pre-operative stroke was present in 87 (28.2 %) patients. Patients with pre-operative stroke had a higher pre-operative risk profile than patient without it: higher Charlson comorbidity index (8.1 ± 2.6 vs. 6.6 ± 3.3) and higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus infection (43 vs. 17 %) and septic shock (37 vs. 19 %). In-hospital mortality was equal but 5-year survival was significantly worse with pre-operative stroke (33.1 % vs. 45 %, p = 0.006). 5-year survival was worst in patients with severe neurological disability compared to mild disability (19.0 vs. 0.58 %, p = 0.002). However, neither pre-operative stroke nor the degree of neurological disability appeared as an independent risk factor for short or long-term mortality by multivariate analysis. Pre-operative stroke and the severity of neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. It appears that patients with pre-operative stroke present with a generally higher risk profile. This information may substantially affect decision-making.

  15. Long-term prediction of reinforced concrete structures - Use of thermodynamic data to assess steel corrosion in carbonated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huet, Bruno [Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et Argiles, DEN/DPC/SCCME/LECBA, Bat. 158, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France)]|[Laboratoire de Physico-Chimie Industrielle, LPCI, INSA de Lyon, Bat. Leonard de Vinci, 20 av. Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex (France); L' Hostis, Valerie; Le Bescop, Patrick [Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et Argiles, DEN/DPC/SCCME/LECBA, Bat. 158, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France); Idrissi, Hassane [Laboratoire de Physico-Chimie Industrielle, LPCI, INSA de Lyon, Bat. Leonard de Vinci, 20 av. Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex (France)

    2004-07-01

    In the context of the prediction of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures involved in the nuclear waste storage, the corrosion mechanisms of the steels have to be assessed and modelled. When nuclear wastes are embedded in reinforced concrete containers, the chemical environment of the reinforcement is progressively modified, due to the diffusion of the carbonation front inside the concrete matrix. This modification leads to the variation of the properties of the iron oxides formed at the steel/concrete interface, and the active corrosion can be initiated. In order to understand and modelled the mechanisms of steel corrosion in concrete, the equilibrium of two main systems must be separately described with the help of thermodynamic data issued from the literature: - The mineral phases, lime and calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), in equilibrium with the pore solution during the propagation of the carbonation front; - The iron oxides in equilibrium with the aqueous solution. For this purpose, the nature of aqueous species present in the pore solution was calculated in the whole range of pH encountered during the cement paste degradation by carbonation. As a matter of fact, as the pH decreases, calcium concentration decreases and silicates concentration increases due to the calcium carbonate formation and C-S-H dissolution. The pH of a carbonated concrete ranges between 8.3 and 10, depending on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the porosity and the conversion degree of carbonation. In this pH range, the iron oxides equilibria were analysed as a function of the redox potential and aqueous species (carbonates and sulphates present in the solution) present inside the solution. In a reductive solution and in presence of carbonates, the high solubility of iron oxides may prevent passivation or generate the dissolution of the passive film. Moreover, the relevance of thermodynamics calculations has been confirmed by corrosion tests of mild steel

  16. Long-term prediction of reinforced concrete structures - Use of thermodynamic data to assess steel corrosion in carbonated concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huet, Bruno; L'Hostis, Valerie; Le Bescop, Patrick; Idrissi, Hassane

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the prediction of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures involved in the nuclear waste storage, the corrosion mechanisms of the steels have to be assessed and modelled. When nuclear wastes are embedded in reinforced concrete containers, the chemical environment of the reinforcement is progressively modified, due to the diffusion of the carbonation front inside the concrete matrix. This modification leads to the variation of the properties of the iron oxides formed at the steel/concrete interface, and the active corrosion can be initiated. In order to understand and modelled the mechanisms of steel corrosion in concrete, the equilibrium of two main systems must be separately described with the help of thermodynamic data issued from the literature: - The mineral phases, lime and calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), in equilibrium with the pore solution during the propagation of the carbonation front; - The iron oxides in equilibrium with the aqueous solution. For this purpose, the nature of aqueous species present in the pore solution was calculated in the whole range of pH encountered during the cement paste degradation by carbonation. As a matter of fact, as the pH decreases, calcium concentration decreases and silicates concentration increases due to the calcium carbonate formation and C-S-H dissolution. The pH of a carbonated concrete ranges between 8.3 and 10, depending on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the porosity and the conversion degree of carbonation. In this pH range, the iron oxides equilibria were analysed as a function of the redox potential and aqueous species (carbonates and sulphates present in the solution) present inside the solution. In a reductive solution and in presence of carbonates, the high solubility of iron oxides may prevent passivation or generate the dissolution of the passive film. Moreover, the relevance of thermodynamics calculations has been confirmed by corrosion tests of mild steel

  17. Trophic position and metabolic rate predict the long-term decay process of radioactive cesium in fish: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideyuki Doi

    Full Text Available Understanding the long-term behavior of radionuclides in organisms is important for estimating possible associated risks to human beings and ecosystems. As radioactive cesium (¹³⁷Cs can be accumulated in organisms and has a long physical half-life, it is very important to understand its long-term decay in organisms; however, the underlying mechanisms determining the decay process are little known. We performed a meta-analysis to collect published data on the long-term ¹³⁷Cs decay process in fish species to estimate biological (metabolic rate and ecological (trophic position, habitat, and diet type influences on this process. From the linear mixed models, we found that 1 trophic position could predict the day of maximum ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish; and 2 the metabolic rate of the fish species and environmental water temperature could predict ecological half-lives and decay rates for fish species. These findings revealed that ecological and biological traits are important to predict the long-term decay process of ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in fish.

  18. New maintenance strategy of Tokyo Electric Power Company and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant for effective ageing management and safe long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inagaki, Takeyuki; Yamashita, Norimichi

    2009-01-01

    Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant is the oldest among three nuclear power plants owned and operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company, which consists of six boiling water reactor units. The commercial operation of Unit 1 was commenced in 1971 (37 years old) and Unit 6 in 1978 (29 years old). Currently ageing degradations of systems, structures and components are managed through maintenance programs, component replacement/refurbishment programs and long-term maintenance plans. The long-term maintenance plans are established through ageing management component replacement/refurbishment programs reviews performed before the 30th year of operation and they are for safe and reliable operation after 30 years (long-term operation). However the past maintenance actions and past component replacement/refurbishment programs were not always proactive and past operational experience and maintenance practices suggest that effective/proactive ageing management programs be introduced in earlier stage of the plant operation. In this circumstance, Tokyo Electric Power Company and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant are setting up a new maintenance strategy that includes 1) improving the normal maintenance programs by using ageing degradation data, 2) effective use of information on internal/external operational experience and maintenance practices related to ageing, and 3) proactive component/equipment refurbishment programs during a refreshment outage for safe and reliable long-term operation. To accomplish the goal of this strategy, strengthening engineering capability of plant staff members is a crucial required for the plant. The objective of this paper is to briefly explain main results ageing management reviews, past and current significant ageing issues and management programs against them, and the new maintenance strategy established by Tokyo Electric Power Company and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

  19. Short-term and long-term thermal prediction of a walking beam furnace using neuro-fuzzy techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banadaki Hamed Dehghan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The walking beam furnace (WBF is one of the most prominent process plants often met in an alloy steel production factory and characterized by high non-linearity, strong coupling, time delay, large time-constant and time variation in its parameter set and structure. From another viewpoint, the WBF is a distributed-parameter process in which the distribution of temperature is not uniform. Hence, this process plant has complicated non-linear dynamic equations that have not worked out yet. In this paper, we propose one-step non-linear predictive model for a real WBF using non-linear black-box sub-system identification based on locally linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF model. Furthermore, a multi-step predictive model with a precise long prediction horizon (i.e., ninety seconds ahead, developed with application of the sequential one-step predictive models, is also presented for the first time. The locally linear model tree (LOLIMOT which is a progressive tree-based algorithm trains these models. Comparing the performance of the one-step LLNF predictive models with their associated models obtained through least squares error (LSE solution proves that all operating zones of the WBF are of non-linear sub-systems. The recorded data from Iran Alloy Steel factory is utilized for identification and evaluation of the proposed neuro-fuzzy predictive models of the WBF process.

  20. Predictive validity of common mental disorders screening questionnaire as a screening instrument in long term sickness absence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Hans Jørgen; Bech, Per

    2010-01-01

    AIMS: Screening instruments for detection of common mental disorders have not been validity tested in long term sickness absence (LSA), which is the aim of this study for the Common Mental Disorders Screening Questionnaire (CMD-SQ). METHODS: Of all 2,414 incident persons on continuous sick...... in Denmark there is not a legal requirement that sick-listed persons are certified as sick by a physician....

  1. Short- and long-term eating habit modification predicts weight change in overweight, postmenopausal women: results from the WOMAN study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barone Gibbs, Bethany; Kinzel, Laura S; Pettee Gabriel, Kelley; Chang, Yue-Fang; Kuller, Lewis H

    2012-09-01

    Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors rather than energy intake may be an alternative strategy. In addition, important behaviors might differ for short- vs long-term weight control. Our aim was to describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months. We performed secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight-loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up. We studied 481 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study. We measured changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (Pstudies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Rolls-Royce I and C long term support a dedicated solution to manage plant condition, optimize operating life and maximize plant value while improving safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baillonmartos, F.

    2010-01-01

    Rolls-Royce supplied safety I and C equipment as Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) for 200 reactors in operation from 1970', including various technological steps (analog to digital hardware). The hardware scope covers various systems, either more than 500 hardware references, either more than 150000 parts in operation. Rolls-Royce contributes to life time extension ensuring system availability and reliability on long term basis by determining the optimum solution between different maintenance approaches: maintenance and repair with limited retrofit or major system retrofit. Based on Long Term Support (LTS) agreement with customers, Rolls-Royce commits to maintain the capability to manufacture, modify, repair, test, at board, rack and systems level over a long time period. This means finding solution to hardware ageing, technology evolution, skills and tools maintenance. This paper describes how Rolls-Royce has built a global process based on delivering a package of services and developing long term support engineering solutions and tools. Our main experience on EDF partnership will serve to illustrate Rolls-Royce I and C Long Term Support activity. (authors)

  3. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  4. Long-Term Follow-Up of Nonoperatively and Operatively Treated Acute Primary Patellar Dislocation in Skeletally Immature Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Bengtsson Moström

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The present study reports a long-term follow-up of acute primary patellar dislocation in patients with open physes. The purpose of the study was to evaluate knee function and recurrence rates after surgical and nonsurgical treatment of patellar dislocation. Methods. A total of 51 patients, including 29 girls and 22 boys, who were 9–14 years of age at the time of injury, were retrospectively evaluated. The minimum follow-up time was 5 years. Thigh muscle torque, range of motion, the squat test, the knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome score (KOOS, the Kujala score, and the recurrence rate were registered. Radiological predisposing factors at the time of injury were determined. Results. Quality of life and sports/recreation were the most affected subscales, according to KOOS, and a reduced Kujala score was also observed in all treatment groups. The surgically treated patients had a significantly lower recurrence rate. Those patients also exhibited reduced muscle performance, with a hamstring to quadriceps ratio (H/Q of 1.03. The recurrence rate was not correlated with knee function. Conclusions. Patellar dislocation in children influences subjective knee function in the long term. Surgery appears to reduce the recurrence rate, but subjective knee function was not restored.

  5. Pro B-type natriuretic peptide plasma value: a new criterion for the prediction of short- and long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Otero, Diego; Trillo-Nouche, Ramiro; Gude, Francisco; Cid-Álvarez, Belen; Ocaranza-Sanchez, Raimundo; Alvarez, Melisa Santas; Lear, Pamela V; Gonzalez-Juanatey, José R

    2013-09-30

    To determine the prognostic value of pro B-type natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) to predict mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Logistic EuroSCORE (LES) overestimates observed mortality after TAVI. A new risk score specific to TAVI is needed to accurately assess mortality and outcome. Eighty-five patients were included. Indications for TAVI were nonoperable or surgically high-risk patients (LES>20%). Pro-BNP was measured 24h before the procedure. Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate clinical factors. The predictive accuracy of these Cox models was determined by using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Pro-BNP levels (log-transformed) were significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors at 30 days (3.36 ± 0.43 vs. 3.81 ± 0.43, p<0.004) and at the end of follow-up (3.34 ± 0.42 vs. 3.63 ± 0.48, p<0.011). Multivariate analysis revealed that only increased log pro-BNP levels were associated with higher mortality rate at short [hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)]=5.35 (1.74-16.5), p=0.003] and long-term follow-ups [HR=11 (CI: 1.51-81.3), p=0.018]. LES was not associated with increased mortality at either time point [HR=1.03 (CI: 0.95-1.10), p=0.483 and HR=1.03 (CI: 0.98-1.07), p=0.230, respectively]. At 30, 90, 180, and 365 days, the c-index was 0.72 for log pro-BNP and 0.63 for LES (p=0.044). Pre-procedure log transform of plasma pro-BNP levels are an independent and strong predictor of short- and long-term outcomes after TAVI and are more discriminatory than LES. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Development of thermodynamic databases and geochemical/transport models for prediction of long-term radionuclide migration (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienzler, B.

    2000-01-01

    The isolation capacity of a repository system for radionuclides is described by geochemical modeling. The models for interpretation of experimental findings and for long-term extrapolation of experimental results are based on thermodynamic approaches. The geochemical models include dissolution reactions of waste forms, the evolution of the geochemical milieu, interactions of radionuclides with constituents of the groundwater (brines) and the precipitation of new solid phases. Reliable thermodynamic data, understanding of radionuclide complexation in aqueous multi-electrolyte solutions at the relevant ionic strength and knowledge on the formation of pure and mixed solids and on sorption processes are urgently needed for such model calculations. (author)

  7. A stochastic approach to long term operation planning of hydrothermal systems; Uma abordagem estocastica para o planejamento a longo prazo da operacao de sistemas hidrotermicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrade, Marinho G. [Sao Paulo Univ., Sao Carlos, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Ciencias Matematicas; Soares, Secundino; Cruz Junior, Gelson da; Vinhal, Cassio D.N. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica

    1996-01-01

    This paper is concerned with long term operation of hydro-thermal power systems. The problem is approached by a deterministic optimization technique coupled to an inflow forecasting model in open-loop feedback framework in monthly basis. The paper aims to compare the solution obtained by this approach and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP), which has been accepted for over than two decades as the better solution to deal with inflow uncertainty in long term planning. The comparison was carried out in systems with a single plant, simulating the operation throughout a period of five years under the historical inflow conditions and evaluating the cost of the complementary thermal generation. Results show that the proposed approach can handle uncertainty as effectively as SDP. Furthermore, it does not require modeling simplification, such as composite reservoirs, to deal with multi hydro plant systems. 10 refs., 1 tab.

  8. Predictive Potential of Preoperative Nutritional Status in Long-Term Outcome Projections for Patients with Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, Katsunobu; Ohira, Masaichi; Tamura, Tatsuro; Toyokawa, Takahiro; Amano, Ryosuke; Kubo, Naoshi; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Muguruma, Kazuya; Yashiro, Masakazu; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Hirakawa, Kosei

    2016-02-01

    Preoperative nutritional status not only correlates with the incidence of postoperative complications but also may be indicative of long-term outcomes for patients with cancer. The impact of preoperative nutritional status on outcomes for patients undergoing gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC) was investigated. The study reviewed 594 patients treated for GC by gastrectomy at the authors' hospital between January, 2004 and December, 2010. Onodera's prognostic nutritional index (PNI) was invoked, using an optimal cut point to group patients as having high (PNI > 45; n = 449) or low (PNI ≤ 45; n = 145) nutritional status. Clinicopathologic features, perioperative results, and long-term outcomes, including cause of death, were compared. Multivariate analysis of 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) indicated that low PNI was independently associated with unfavorable outcomes for patients with GC. In subgroup analysis, the 5-year OS and DSS rates for patients with GC at stages 1 and 2 were significantly worse in the low PNI group than in the high PNI group. Although wound and extrasurgical field infections also tended to be more frequent in the low PNI group, postoperative intraabdominal infections did not differ significantly by group. Preoperative PNI may have merit as a gauge of prognosis for patients with GC at stages 1 and 2, but PNI and postoperative morbidity showed no correlation in this setting.

  9. Ikh Turgen Mountain Glacier Change and 3d Surface Extents Prediction Using Long Term Landsat Image and Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Erdenebat, Erdenetogtokh; Chogsom, Bolorchuluun; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag; Nanzad, Lkhagvadorj

    2018-04-01

    The glacier is most important the freshwater resources and indicator of the climate change. The researchers noted that during last decades the glacier is melting due to global warming. The study calculates a spatial distribution of protentional change of glacier coverage in the Ikh Turgen mountain of Western Mongolia, and it integrates long-term climate data and satellite datasets. Therefore, in this experiment has tried to estimation three-dimensional surface area of the glacier. For this purpose, Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) was applied to decision tree approach, using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and LC8 imagery for 1975-2016, a surface and slope for digital elevation model, precipitation and air temperature historical data of meteorological station. The potential volume area significantly changed glacier cover of the Ikh Turgen Mountain, and the area affected by highly variable precipitation and air temperature regimes. Between 1972 and 2016, a potential area of glacier area has been decreased in Ikh Turgen mountain region.

  10. Predictive factors of long-term colorectal cancer survival after ultrasound-controlled ablation of hepatic metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Socorro, Carmen Rosa; Saavedra, Pedro; Ramírez Felipe, José; Bohn Sarmiento, Uriel; Ruiz-Santana, Sergio

    2017-04-21

    The risk factors associated to long-term survival were assessed in patients with liver metastases of colorectal carcinoma undergoing ablative therapies. Single-centre cohort study, retrospectively analysed and prospectively collected consecutive patients with unresectable metastatic liver disease of colorectal carcinoma treated with ablative therapies between 1996 and 2013. Factors associated with survival time were identified using Cox's proportional hazard model with time-dependent covariates. A forward variable selection based on Akaike information criterion was performed. Relative risk and 95% confidence intervals for each factor were calculated. Statistical significance was set as P<.05. Seventy-five patients with liver metastases of colorectal cancer, with a mean age of 65.6 (10.3) underwent 106 treatments. Variables selected were good quality of life (RR 0.308, 95% CI 0.150-0.632) and tumour extension (RR 3.070, 95% CI 1.776-5.308). The median overall survival was 18.5 months (95% CI 17.4-24.4). The survival prognosis in median was 13.5 vs. 23.4 months for patients with and without tumour extension, and 23.0 vs. 12.8 months for patients with good and fair or poor quality of life, respectively. Good quality of life and tumour extension were the only statistically significant predictors of long-term survival in patients of colorectal carcinoma with liver metastatic disease undergoing ablative treatment with ultrasound. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Baseline red blood cell distribution width predicts long-term glycemic remission in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lijuan; Wang, Liangjiao; Huang, Xinwei; Liu, Liehua; Ke, Weijian; He, Xiaoying; Huang, Zhimin; Liu, Juan; Wan, Xuesi; Cao, Xiaopei; Li, Yanbing

    2017-09-01

    We explored whether red blood cell distribution width (RDW), a routinely checked item of complete blood cell counts, was an indicator of long-term euglycemia remission in patients with type 2 diabetes after short-term continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII). We analyzed the original data of patients enrolled in three randomized control trials from 2002 to 2014. CSII was administered to drug-naїve patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes to achieve and maintain euglycemia for 2weeks. A total of 185 patients were involved and 98 patients (52.97%) who achieved and maintained euglycemia for at least 12months were classified as the remission group, and the others as the non-remission group. Patients in remission group had a relatively lower value for baseline RDW (38.82±2.76vs 39.89±2.78fL, p=0.017) compared with those in non-remission group. A graded decrease of remission rate (67.50%, 55.00%, 53.66% and 30.77% for Quartile 1 to Quartile 4 respectively, P<0.05) was observed with the increasing of RDWs. The risk of hyperglycemic relapse was significantly increased for those in the highest quartile compared with the lowest (hazard ratio=2.68; 95% CI, 1.38-5.22). Those who achieved euglycemia within 7days or obtained a better fasting glucose after therapy had preferable remission rates. Patients with lower baseline RDWs are more likely to maintain a one-year euglycemia remission after short-term CSII. A faster normalization of glucose during treatment and a lower fasting glucose after therapy are correlated with a long-term glucose control. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Utilization of Plutonium and Higher Actinides in the HTGR as Possibility to Maintain Long-Term Operation on One Fuel Loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsvetkova, Galina V.; Peddicord, Kenneth L.

    2002-01-01

    Promising existing nuclear reactor concepts together with new ideas are being discussed worldwide. Many new studies are underway in order to identify prototypes that will be analyzed and developed further as systems for Generation IV. The focus is on designs demonstrating full inherent safety, competitive economics and proliferation resistance. The work discussed here is centered on a modularized small-size High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) concept. This paper discusses the possibility of maintaining long-term operation on one fuel loading through utilization of plutonium and higher actinides in the small-size pebble-bed reactor (PBR). Acknowledging the well-known flexibility of the PBR design with respect to fuel composition, the principal limitations of the long-term burning of plutonium and higher actinides are considered. The technological challenges and further research are outlined. The results allow the identification of physical features of the PBR that significantly influence flexibility of the design and its applications. (authors)

  13. Simulation of long-term influence from technical systems on permafrost with various short-scale and hourly operation modes in Arctic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaganova, N. A.

    2017-12-01

    Technogenic and climatic influences have a significant impact on the degradation of permafrost. Long-term forecasts of such changes during long-time periods have to be taken into account in the oil and gas and construction industries in view to development the Arctic and Subarctic regions. There are considered constantly operating technical systems (for example, oil and gas wells) that affect changes in permafrost, as well as the technical systems that have a short-term impact on permafrost (for example, flare systems for emergency flaring of associated gas). The second type of technical systems is rather complex for simulation, since it is required to reserve both short and long-scales in computations with variable time steps describing the complex technological processes. The main attention is paid to the simulation of long-term influence on the permafrost from the second type of the technical systems.

  14. High levels of comorbidity and disability cancel out the dementia effect in predictions of long-term mortality after discharge in the very old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zekry, Dina; Herrmann, François R; Graf, Christophe E; Giannelli, Sandra; Michel, Jean-Pierre; Gold, Gabriel; Krause, Karl-Heinz

    2011-01-01

    The relative weight of various etiologies of dementia as predictors of long-term mortality after other risk factors have been taken into account remains unclear. We investigated the 5-year mortality risk associated with dementia in elderly people after discharge from acute care, taking into account comorbid conditions and functionality. A prospective cohort study of 444 patients (mean age: 85 years; 74% female) discharged from the acute geriatric unit of Geneva University Hospitals. On admission, each subject underwent a standardized diagnostic evaluation: demographic variables, cognitive, comorbid medical conditions and functional assessment. Patients were followed yearly by the same team. Predictors of survival at 5 years were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards models. The univariate model showed that being older and male, and having vascular and severe dementia, comorbidity and functional disability, were predictive of shorter survival. However, in the full multivariate model adjusted for age and sex, the effect of dementia type or severity completely disappeared when all the variables were added. In multivariate analysis, the best predictor was higher comorbidity score, followed by functional status (R(2) = 23%). The identification of comorbidity and functional impairment effects as predictive factors for long-term mortality independent of cognitive status may increase the accuracy of long-term discharge planning. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. Long term effects of prenatal X ray on human females: early fertility and frequency of operations to prevent pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.B.; Tonascia, J.A.

    1980-01-01

    The subject of this paper is a long-term epidemiological study of human females who were exposed to radiation from maternal diagnostic x-ray procedures when they were in utero, compared with matched, unexposed controls. The study was designed to investigate possible effects of in-utero exposure, with particular interest being paid to reproductive capacity. In the human female and other mammals, because all mitotic divisions of germ cells occur during fetal life, the female baby is born with a finite supply of oocytes and future eggs. This supply is continuously depleted throughout life by ovulation and by cell degeneration, and there is no way for damaged or lost cells to be replaced. Experimental studies in a number of species have shown that female germ cells are extremely sensitive to radiation damage at two times during development. In humans the first of these probably occurs at around 4 to 5 months of gestation, and the second probably occurs around the time of birth. Radiation damage at these sensitive stages might show up at puberty ad during reproductive life, and might be detected by a well-designed study

  16. Effect of biogas sparging on the performance of bio-hydrogen reactor over a long-term operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nualsri, Chatchawin; Kongjan, Prawit; Imai, Tsuyoshi

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to enhance hydrogen production from sugarcane syrup by biogas sparging. Two-stage continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) and upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor were used to produce hydrogen and methane, respectively. Biogas produced from the UASB was used to sparge into the CSTR. Results indicated that sparging with biogas increased the hydrogen production rate (HPR) by 35% (from 17.1 to 23.1 L/L.d) resulted from a reduction in the hydrogen partial pressure. A fluctuation of HPR was observed during a long term monitoring because CO2 in the sparging gas and carbon source in the feedstock were consumed by Enterobacter sp. to produce succinic acid without hydrogen production. Mixed gas released from the CSTR after the sparging can be considered as bio-hythane (H2+CH4). In addition, a continuous sparging biogas into CSTR release a partial pressure in the headspace of the methane reactor. In consequent, the methane production rate is increased. PMID:28207755

  17. Superiority of Serum Cystatin C Over Creatinine in Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis at Discharge From ICU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravn, Bo; Prowle, John R; Mårtensson, Johan; Martling, Claes-Roland; Bell, Max

    2017-09-01

    Renal outcomes after critical illness are seldom assessed despite strong correlation between chronic kidney disease and survival. Outside hospital, renal dysfunction is more strongly associated with mortality when assessed by serum cystatin C than by creatinine. The relationship between creatinine and longer term mortality might be particularly weak in survivors of critical illness. Retrospective observational cohort study. In 3,077 adult ICU survivors, we compared ICU discharge cystatin C and creatinine and their association with 1-year mortality. Exclusions were death within 72 hours of ICU discharge, ICU stay less than 24 hours, and end-stage renal disease. None. During ICU admission, serum cystatin C and creatinine diverged, so that by ICU discharge, almost twice as many patients had glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m when estimated from cystatin C compared with glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine, 44% versus 26%. In 743 patients without acute kidney injury, where ICU discharge renal function should reflect ongoing baseline, discharge glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine consistently overestimated follow-up glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine, whereas ICU discharge glomerular filtration rate estimated from cystatin C well matched follow-up chronic kidney disease status. By 1 year, 535 (17.4%) had died. In survival analysis adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidity, cystatin C was near-linearly associated with increased mortality, hazard ratio equals to 1.78 (95% CI, 1.46-2.18), 75th versus 25th centile. Conversely, creatinine demonstrated a J-shaped relationship with mortality, so that in the majority of patients, there was no significant association with survival, hazard ratio equals to 1.03 (0.87-1.2), 75th versus 25th centile. After adjustment for both creatinine and cystatin C levels, higher discharge creatinine was then associated with lower long-term mortality. In contrast to creatinine

  18. Development of prediction models of stress and long-term disability among claimants to injury compensation systems: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spittal, Matthew J; Grant, Genevieve; O'Donnell, Meaghan; McFarlane, Alexander C; Studdert, David M

    2018-04-28

    We sought to develop prognostic risk scores for compensation-related stress and long-term disability using markers collected within 3 months of a serious injury. Cohort study. Predictors were collected at baseline and at 3 months postinjury. Outcome data were collected at 72 months postinjury. Hospitalised patients with serious injuries recruited from four major trauma hospitals in Australia. 332 participants who made claims for compensation for their injuries to a transport accident scheme or a workers' compensation scheme. 12-item WHO Disability Assessment Schedule and 6 items from the Claims Experience Survey. Our model for long-term disability had four predictors (unemployed at the time of injury, history of a psychiatric disorder at time of injury, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity at 3 months and disability at 3 months). This model had good discrimination (R 2 =0.37) and calibration. The disability risk score had a score range of 0-180, and at a threshold of 80 had sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 86%. Our model for compensation-related stress had five predictors (intensive care unit admission, discharged to home, number of traumatic events prior to injury, depression at 3 months and not working at 3 months). This model also had good discrimination (area under the curve=0.83) and calibration. The compensation-related stress risk score had score range of 0-220 and at a threshold of 100 had sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 75%. By combining these two scoring systems, we were able to identify the subgroup of claimants at highest risk of experiencing both outcomes. The ability to identify at an early stage claimants at high risk of compensation-related stress and poor recovery is potentially valuable for claimants and the compensation agencies that serve them. The scoring systems we developed could be incorporated into the claims-handling processes to guide prevention-oriented interventions. © Article author(s) (or their employer

  19. Development of the international status of science and technology concerning methods and tools for operational and long-term safety cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seher, Holger; Beuth, Thomas; Bracke, Guido; Kock, Ingo; Mayer, Kim-Marisa; Moog, Helge C.; Uhlmann, Stephan; Weyand, Torben

    2016-09-01

    The project ''development of the international status of science and technology concerning methods and tools for operational and long-term safety cases'' covers the following key aspects: global aspects of the methodology for scenario assumption for the operational phase following closure, potential analysis of the derives safety cases for the project Gorleben, determination of the solid phase composition of high-level radioactive wastes using geochemical modeling calculations, search for an adequate approach for the calculation of density and viscosity of saline solutions for the future use in GRS computer codes, international approaches for an integral analysis for the host rocks clay and granite in relation to the safety requirements of BMUB.

  20. LIMCAL: a comprehensive food chain model for predicting radiation exposure to man in long-term nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-08-01

    A food chain model, LIMCAL, has been designed to aid in the assessment of the effects of long-term nuclear waste management on man far into the future. LIMCAL is particularly suited to the evaluation of an underground vault. Energy budgets, a basic feature of food chains, have been introduced in LIMCAL to help overcome uncertainties imposed by long time spans. LIMCAL includes all the ingestion pathways leading to man, which comprise terrestrial, fresh-water and saltwater food types and man's and animals' drinking water. The terrestrial pathways include both root uptake and leaf deposition. The basic input terms for LIMCAL are annual average radionuclide concentrations in soil, fresh water and saltwater. Annual average air concentrations can be calculated from soil concentrations by using the resuspension factor or the mass-loading approach. Many of the equations in LIMCAL are similar to those in FOOD II and NEPTUN, existing food chain models for contemporary assessments. The basic output of LIMCAL consists of radionculide concentrations in various food types and drinking water, and the resulting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents for infant and adult man. Dose/ concentration ratios can also be calculated readily by LIMCAL. LIMCAL is best described as a deterministic generic quasi-equilibrium assessment model of the linear-chain type. The parameters of LIMCAL have been reviewed in detail in a separate document

  1. Increase in posterior alpha activity during rehearsal predicts successful long-term memory formation of word sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeuwissen, Esther B; Takashima, Atsuko; Fernández, Guillén; Jensen, Ole

    2011-12-01

    It is becoming increasingly clear that demanding cognitive tasks rely on an extended network engaging task-relevant areas and, importantly, disengaging task-irrelevant areas. Given that alpha activity (8-12 Hz) has been shown to reflect the disengagement of task-irrelevant regions in attention and working memory tasks, we here ask if alpha activity plays a related role for long-term memory formation. Subjects were instructed to encode and maintain the order of word sequences while the ongoing brain activity was recorded using magnetoencephalography (MEG). In each trial, three words were presented followed by a 3.4 s rehearsal interval. Considering the good temporal resolution of MEG this allowed us to investigate the word presentation and rehearsal interval separately. The sequences were grouped in trials where word order either could be tested immediately (working memory trials; WM) or later (LTM trials) according to instructions. Subjects were tested on their ability to retrieve the order of the three words. The data revealed that alpha power in parieto-occipital regions was lower during word presentation compared to rehearsal. Our key finding was that parieto-occipital alpha power during the rehearsal period was markedly stronger for successfully than unsuccessfully encoded LTM sequences. This subsequent memory effect demonstrates that high posterior alpha activity creates an optimal brain state for successful LTM formation possibly by actively reducing parieto-occipital activity that might interfere with sequence encoding. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Performance and microbial community composition in a long-term sequential anaerobic-aerobic bioreactor operation treating coking wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Dev Raj; Zhang, Yu; Tian, Zhe; Gao, Yingxin; Yang, Min

    2016-09-01

    The combined anaerobic-aerobic biosystem is assumed to consume less energy for the treatment of high strength industrial wastewater. In this study, pollutant removal performance and microbial diversity were assessed in a long-term (over 300 days) bench-scale sequential anaerobic-aerobic bioreactor treating coking wastewater. Anaerobic treatment removed one third of the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and more than half of the phenols with hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 42 h, while the combined system with total HRT of 114 h removed 81.8, 85.6, 99.9, 98.2, and 85.4 % of COD, total organic carbon (TOC), total phenols, thiocyanate, and cyanide, respectively. Two-dimensional gas chromatography with time-of-flight mass spectrometry showed complete removal of phenol derivatives and nitrogenous heterocyclic compounds (NHCs) via the combined system, with the anaerobic process alone contributing 58.4 and 58.6 % removal on average, respectively. Microbial activity in the bioreactors was examined by 454 pyrosequencing of the bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities. Proteobacteria (61.2-93.4 %), particularly Betaproteobacteria (34.4-70.1 %), was the dominant bacterial group. Ottowia (14.1-46.7 %), Soehngenia (3.0-8.2 %), and Corynebacterium (0.9-12.0 %), which are comprised of phenol-degrading and hydrolytic bacteria, were the most abundant genera in the anaerobic sludge, whereas Thiobacillus (6.6-43.6 %), Diaphorobacter (5.1-13.0 %), and Comamonas (0.2-11.1 %) were the major degraders of phenol, thiocyanate, and NHCs in the aerobic sludge. Despite the low density of fungi, phenol degrading oleaginous yeast Trichosporon was abundant in the aerobic sludge. This study demonstrated the feasibility and optimization of less energy intensive treatment and the potential association between abundant bacterial groups and biodegradation of key pollutants in coking wastewater.

  3. Long-Term Evaluation of Changes in Operative Technique and Hardware-Related Complications With Deep Brain Stimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falowski, Steven M; Ooi, Yinn Cher; Bakay, Roy A E

    2015-12-01

    Deep brain stimulation is the most frequent neurosurgical procedure for movement disorders. While this elective procedure carries a low-risk profile, it is not free of complications. As a new procedure, the pattern of complications changed with experience and modification of surgical technique and equipment. This review analyzes the most common hardware-related complications that may occur and techniques to avoid them. It is a retrospective review of 432 patients undergoing 1077 procedures over a 14-year period by one surgeon with emphasis on the analysis of surgical technique and the changes over time. Comparisons were made pre and postimplementation of different surgical techniques over different time periods. The epochs relate to the learning curve, new equipment, and new techniques. Overall lead revision was observed at 5.7%, extension revision at 3.2%, infection rate at 1.2%, infarct without intracerebral hemorrhage at 0.8%, and intracerebral hemorrhage at 2.5% with a permanent deficit of 0.2%. An analysis and change in surgical technique which involved isolating the lead from the skin surface at both the cranial and retro-auricular incision also demonstrated a substantial decrease in lead fracture rate and infection rate. There was no mortality. This large series of patients and long-term follow-up demonstrates that risks are very low in comparison with other neurosurgical procedures, but DBS is still an elective procedure that necessitates extensive care and precision. In a rapidly evolving field, attention to surgical technique is imperative and will keep rates of complications at a minimum. © 2015 International Neuromodulation Society.

  4. ASSOCIATION OF OPERATING RISK OF LONG-TERM OBLIGATIONS OF MUNICIPALITIY OF SOPOT WITH EUROPEAN UNION BUDGET PROSPECTS FOR 2007-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Jastrzębski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Polish accession to the European Union allowed Polish municipalities to use co-financing of development projects of local infrastructure, environmental protection and improvement of competitiveness of municipalities. The process of transition is sometimes referred to as bridging the development gaps between countries of "old fifteen" and the new member countries. The desire of municipalities to maximize the use of EU funds led to a rapid increase in the debt level of municipalities and changes in levels of risk of long-term liabilities of municipalities. The aim of this article is to empirically confirm thesis that the change in the long-term financial liabilities associated with the prospect of the European Union budget for 2007-2013 is causing a variation of the operating risks of these liabilities. A tool used to verify this hypothesis is the risk model, which is a random vector with components identified with control variables of management process in the handling of long-term financial liabilities. The design of the components of this vector is based on the basic characteristics of the probability distribution of the vector as the ex-pected value and the variance and their ideal and anti-ideal levels.

  5. Long-term collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  6. Predicting Long-term Ischemic Events Using Routine Clinical Parameters in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: The OPT-CAD Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yaling; Chen, Jiyan; Qiu, Miaohan; Li, Yi; Li, Jing; Feng, Yingqing; Qiu, Jian; Meng, Liang; Sun, Yihong; Tao, Guizhou; Wu, Zhaohui; Yang, Chunyu; Guo, Jincheng; Pu, Kui; Chen, Shaoliang; Wang, Xiaozeng

    2018-06-05

    The prognosis of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) at hospital discharge was constantly varying, and post-discharge risk of ischemic events remain a concern. However, risk prediction tools to identify risk of ischemia for these patients has not yet been reported. We sought to develop a scoring system for predicting long-term ischemic events in CAD patients receiving antiplatelet therapy that would be beneficial in appropriate personalized decision-making for these patients. In this prospective Optimal antiPlatelet Therapy for Chinese patients with Coronary Artery Disease (OPT-CAD, NCT01735305) registry, a total of 14,032 patients with CAD receiving at least one kind of antiplatelet agent were enrolled from 107 centers across China, from January 2012 to March 2014. The risk scoring system was developed in a derivation cohort (enrolled initially 10,000 patients in the database) using a logistic regression model and was subsequently tested in a validation cohort (the last 4,032 patients). Points in risk score was assigned based on the multivariable odds ratio of each factor. Ischemic events were defined as the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction or stroke. Ischemic events occurred in 342 (3.4%) patients in the derivation cohort and 160 (4.0%) patients in the validation cohort during 1-year follow-up. The OPT-CAD score, ranging from 0-257 points, consist of 10 independent risk factors, including age (0-71 points), heart rates (0-36 points), hypertension (0-20 points), prior myocardial infarction (16 points), prior stroke (16 points), renal insufficient (21 points), anemia (19 points), low ejection fraction (22 points), positive cardiac troponin (23 points) and ST-segment deviation (13 points). In predicting 1-year ischemic events, the area under receiver operating characteristics curve were 0.73 and 0.72 in derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The incidences of ischemic events in low- (0-90 points), medium- (91-150 points) and

  7. Serial Diffusion Tensor Imaging In Vivo Predicts Long-Term Functional Recovery and Histopathology in Rats following Different Severities of Spinal Cord Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Samir P.; Smith, Taylor D.; VanRooyen, Jenna L.; Powell, David; Cox, David H.; Sullivan, Patrick G.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in vivo to quantify temporally spinal cord injury (SCI) pathology in adult female Sprague-Dawley rats that were scanned prior to a moderate or severe upper lumbar contusion SCI. Injured rats were behaviorally tested for hind limb locomotion (Basso, Beattie, Bresnahan [BBB] scores) weekly for 4 weeks and scanned immediately after each session, ending with terminal gait analyses prior to euthanasia. As a measure of tissue integrity, fractional anisotropy (FA) values were significantly lower throughout the spinal cord in both injury cohorts at all time-points examined versus pre-injury. Moreover, FA values were significantly lower following severe versus moderate SCI at all time-points, and FA values at the injury epicenters at all time-points were significantly correlated with both spared white and gray matter volumes, as well as lesion volumes. Critically, quantified FA values at subacute (24 h) and all subsequent time-points were highly predictive of terminal behavior, reflected in significant correlations with both weekly BBB scores and terminal gait parameters. Critically, the finding that clinically relevant subacute (24 h) FA values accurately predict long-term functional recovery may obviate long-term studies to assess the efficacy of therapeutics tested experimentally or clinically. In summary, this study demonstrates a reproducible serial MRI procedure to predict the long-term impact of contusion SCI on both behavior and histopathology using subacute DTI metrics obtained in vivo to accurately predict multiple terminal outcome measures, which can be particularly valuable when comparing experimental interventions. PMID:26650623

  8. Insomnia predicts long-term all-cause mortality after acute myocardial infarction: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condén, Emelie; Rosenblad, Andreas

    2016-07-15

    Sleep impairment such as insomnia is an established risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The aim of the current study was to examine the association between insomnia and all-cause mortality among AMI patients. This prospective cohort study used data on n=732 patients recruited from September 2006 to May 2011 as part of the Västmanland Myocardial Infarction Study (VaMIS), a prospective cohort study of AMI patients living in Västmanland County, Sweden. Participants were followed up for all-cause mortality until December 9, 2015. The outcome of interest was time-to-death (TTD), with the presence of insomnia being the risk factor of main interest. Data were analyzed using a piecewise Cox regression model with change point for insomnia at two years of follow-up, adjusted for socioeconomic, lifestyle and clinical risk factors. In total, n=175 (23.9%) of the participants suffered from insomnia. During a mean (SD) follow-up time of 6.0 (2.5) years (4392person-years), a total of n=231 (31.6%) participants died, n=77 (44.0%) in the insomnia group and n=154 (27.6%) in the non-insomnia group (log-rank test pinsomnia did not imply a higher risk of death during the first two years after AMI (HR 0.849; 95% CI 0.508-1.421; p=0.534). During the period after the first two years, however, insomnia implied a 1.6 times higher risk of death (HR 1.597; 95% CI 1.090-2.341; p=0.016). Insomnia implies a higher risk of death among AMI patients in the long term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Stability issues of high-energy resolution diode type CdTe nuclear radiation detectors in a long-term operation

    CERN Document Server

    Niraula, M; Aoki, T; Tomita, Y; Hatanaka, Y

    2002-01-01

    High-energy resolution diode type CdTe detectors were fabricated by growing an n-type epitaxial layer on high resistivity p-like crystal wafers, and their stability issues during a long-term operation were studied. Room temperature stability of the detectors was not good at low operating biases of around 200 V. However, it could be improved significantly by operating them at higher biases under full depletion conditions. On the other hand, detectors exhibited excellent stability by cooling them slightly below room temperature down to 0 deg. C. The effect of this low level of cooling on detector stability was found to be more significant than that of applying high biases at room temperature. By using the detector type presented here, stable operation could be obtained at moderate operating voltages of around 400 V and with a modest degree of cooling.

  10. OPG's long term management proposal for low and intermediate level radioactive waste: project description, operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witzke, P.

    2011-01-01

    Although the Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) is approximately 8 years away from being placed into service, it is time to start planning for operations. Ontario Power Generation's (OPG) Nuclear Waste Management Division (NWMD) has a systematic approach to preparing for operation of any new facility that is readily applicable to the DGR. The DGR Operational Readiness Plan has been benchmarked at similar facilities in North America and Europe. The operating vision is a living model, and is constantly being reviewed and refined to align with the detailed design of the DGR as it proceeds through its phases of development. Combined with 40 years of operating surface storage facilities for the storage of Low and Intermediate Level Waste (LILW), the DGR operating vision will enable NWMD to provide meaningful input during COMS (Constructability, Operability, Maintainability, and Safety) review in the DGR project detailed-design phase in 2011/2012. A Work Breakdown Structure has been used to communicate the detail of the operating vision, and also to estimate the costs of Operational Readiness and Operations during the lifetime of the facility. (author)

  11. Geological predictions for the long-term isolation of radioactive waste based on extrapolating uniform mode and rate of crustal movements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeda, Koji; Tanikawa, Shin-ichi; Yasue, Ken-ichi

    2013-01-01

    Long-term predictions of geological and tectonic disturbances are key issues for the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal, especially on the Japanese Islands. Geological predictions of disturbances should be performed by extrapolating uniform mode and rate of crustal movements under the current framework. Multiple lines of geological evidence in Japan strongly suggest that the present mode of tectonics began during the late Pliocene to early Quaternary, and was fully developed by the middle Pleistocene. The uplift rates of mountains in Japan are determined to have been approximately constant until the middle Pleistocene based on simulations of temporal changes in mean altitude developed under concurrent tectonics and denudation processes. The onset of the neotectonic mode of deformation was probably triggered by the initiation of the eastward movement of the Amur Plate and the collision of the Izu block with central Honshu. The uncertainty of predictions beyond steady-state crustal deformation would, in general, increase for long-term predictions using the extrapolation procedure. Consequently, future geological and tectonic disturbances in Japan can be estimated with relatively high reliability for the next 100,000 years. (author)

  12. Long-Term Durability of PBI-Based HT-PEM Fuel Cells: Effect of Operating Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Tonny; Cleemann, Lars Nilausen; Becker, Hans

    2018-01-01

    -term operation. Durability is assessed for 16 identically fabricated membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs), and evaluations are carried out using operating parameters as stressors with gas stoichiometries ranging from 2 to 25, current densities from 200 to 800 mA cm(-2), and temperatures of 160 or 180 degrees C...

  13. Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

    2015-01-01

    Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

  14. Osteoprotegerin predicts long-term outcome in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sune Folke; Bjerre, Mette; Mogelvang, Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    : 1.03-1.59; p = 0.03), repeat myocardial infarction (HR: 1.30; CI: 1.00-1.68; p = 0.05) and admission with heart failure (HR: 1.50; CI: 1.18-1.90; p = 0.001). Conclusion: This study shows that OPG independently predicts long-term outcome in STEMI patients treated with pPCI. Eventually, this knowledge...... in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). Methods: We included 716 consecutive STEMI patients admitted to a single high-volume invasive heart center from September 2006 to December 2008. Endpoints were all...

  15. Aspects of operational safety and long-term structural stability of the Morsleben repository for radioactive wastes (ERAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wernicke, R.S.

    1997-01-01

    The results of safety evaluations and safety reports reveal undoubtedly, that the Morsleben final repository operations is safe and responsible. On the basis of safety-technical evaluations some need was identified for locally optimizing the repository operations and possibly also some geotechnical features of the mine. However, this does not raise safety-related questions for man and the environment. In addition to the control exercised by the supervisory body, continuing evaluations of the repository operations assure, that changes of the safety status will be recognized in a timely manner and that competent action may be taken if necessary. (orig.) [de

  16. User manual of Soil and Cesium Transport (SACT), a program to predict long-term Cs distribution using USLE for soil erosion, transportation and deposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Hiroshi; Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Kitamura, Akihiro

    2016-12-01

    This manual provides useful and necessary information to users of 'SACT' (Soil and Cesium Transport), which Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has developed to predict a long-term distribution of Cs deposited on the land surface of Fukushima due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident on March 11, 2011. SACT calculates soil movement (erosion, transportation and deposition) and resulting Cs migration, and predicts its future distribution, with the assumption that Cs is adhered to soil initially. SACT uses USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) for potential soil loss and simple hydraulic equations for soil transportation and deposition in which soil is divided into course-grained sand and fine-grained silt/clay. The amount of Cs moved with soil is predicted by the amount of above-mentioned soil movement and concentration ratio of Cs for each grain-size. SACT utilizes the 'ArcGIS' software and the GIS (Geographical Information System). SACT is characterized by its simplicity which enables fast calculation for wide area for long-term duration, using existing simple equations including USLE. Data for used parameters are widely available, and site-specific calculations are possible by using data obtained from the targeted area. (author)

  17. The roles of self-efficacy and motivation in the prediction of short- and long-term adherence to exercise among patients with coronary heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovinec D'Angelo, Monika E; Pelletier, Luc G; Reid, Robert D; Huta, Veronika

    2014-11-01

    Poor adherence to regular exercise is a documented challenge among people with heart disease. Identifying key determinants of exercise adherence and distinguishing between the processes driving short- and long-term adherence to regular exercise is a valuable endeavor. The purpose of the present study was to test a model of exercise behavior change, which incorporates motivational orientations and self-efficacy for exercise behavior, in the prediction of short- and long-term exercise adherence. Male and female patients (N = 801) hospitalized for coronary heart disease were recruited from 3 tertiary care cardiac centers and followed for a period of 1 year after hospital discharge. A prospective, longitudinal design was used to examine the roles of motivation and self-efficacy (measured at recruitment and at 2 and 6 months after discharge) in the prediction of exercise behavior at 6 and 12 months. Baseline measures of exercise and clinical and demographic covariates were included in the analyses. Structural equation modeling showed that both autonomous motivation and self-efficacy were important determinants of short-term (6-month) exercise behavior regulation, but that only autonomous motivation remained a significant predictor of long-term (12-month) exercise behavior. Self-efficacy partially mediated the relationship between motivation for exercise and 6-month exercise behavior. This research confirmed the roles of autonomous motivation and self-efficacy in the health behavior change process and emphasized the key function of autonomous motivation in exercise maintenance. Theoretical and cardiac rehabilitation program applications of this research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. ESTIMATION OF MULTI-MODAL ANALGESIA ADEQUACY IN THE PERIOPERATIVE PERIOD AT LONG-TERMED TRAUMATIZING ABDOMINAL OPERATIVE INTERVENTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Kh. Sharipova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE OF THE STUDY. Improvement of perioperative multimodal analgesia at long­termed traumatizing abdominal interventions with estimation of its effectiveness.MATERIALS AND METHODS. Eighty six patients have been examined and divided into 3 groups depending on anesthesia and postoperative pain relief methods.RESULTS. The effectiveness of perioperative multi­modal analgesia using methods affecting the whole pathogenesis of pain has been revealed. Minimal stress of central and peripheral hemodynamics parameters, less evident pain syndrome in the post­operative period, economic effect shown up by the decrease of the use of narcotic analgesics both in intra­ and post­operative period have been observed.CONCLUSION. Algorithm of perioperative multi­modal analgesia at long­termed and traumatizing abdominal operative interventions has been developed. 

  19. SPECIFIC DEGRADATION STRUCTURE FEATURES AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF FURNACE AND HEAT POWER EQUIPMENT ELEMENTS AFTER LONG-TERM OPERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. I. Panteleenko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of investigations on structure and mechanical properties of technological equipment elements made of heat-resistant steels. A scale of chrome and molybdenum steel microstructure degradation based on evaluation of  coagulated carbide size and material mechanical properties (a point from 0-operation without time limits, up to 4-operation prohibition has been proposed in the paper. It has been  established that an analysis of  steel microstructure directly on equipment elements by means of a portable microscope is an efficient express method for evaluation of equipment condition and structures due to control of material structure degradation rate of a diagnosed object.

  20. Long-term effects of operating temperature and sulphate addition on the methanogenic community structure of anaerobic hybrid reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pender, Seán; Toomey, Margaret; Carton, Micheál; Eardly, Dónal; Patching, John W; Colleran, Emer; O'Flaherty, Vincent

    2004-02-01

    The diversity, population dynamics, and activity profiles of methanogens in anaerobic granular sludges from two anaerobic hybrid reactors treating a molasses wastewater both mesophilically (37 degrees C) and thermophilically (55 degrees C) during a 1081 day trial were determined. The influent to one of the reactors was supplemented with sulphate, after an acclimation period of 112 days, to determine the effect of competition with sulphate-reducing bacteria on the methanogenic community structure. Sludge samples were removed from the reactors at intervals throughout the operational period and examined by amplified ribosomal DNA (rDNA) restriction analysis (ARDRA) and partial sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. In total, 18 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified, 12 of which were sequenced. The methanogenic communities in both reactors changed during the operational period. The seed sludge and the reactor biomass sampled during mesophilic operation, both in the presence and absence of sulphate, was characterised by a predominance of Methanosaeta spp. Following temperature elevation, the dominant methanogenic sequences detected in the non-sulphate supplemented reactor were closely related to Methanocorpusculum parvum. By contrast, the dominant OTUs detected in the sulphate-supplemented reactor upon temperature increase were related to the hydrogen-utilising methanogen, Methanobacterium thermoautotrophicum. The observed methanogenic community structure in the reactors correlated with the operational performance of the reactors during the trial and with physiological measurements of the reactor biomass. Both reactors achieved chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiencies of over 90% during mesophilic operation, with or without sulphate supplementation. During thermophilic operation, the presence of sulphate resulted in decreased reactor performance (effluent acetate concentrations of >3000 mg/l and biogas methane content of acetate at 55 degrees C was

  1. Long-term success and failure with SG is predictable by 3 months: a multivariate model using simple office markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottam, Austin; Billing, Josiah; Cottam, Daniel; Billing, Peter; Cottam, Samuel; Zaveri, Hinali; Surve, Amit

    2017-08-01

    Despite being the most common surgery in the United States, little is known about predicting weight loss success and failure with sleeve gastrectomy (SG). Papers that have been published are inconclusive. We decided to use multivariate analysis from 2 practices to design a model to predict weight loss outcomes using data widely available to any surgical practice at 3 months to determine weight loss outcomes at 1 year. Two private practices in the United States. A retrospective review of 613 patients from 2 bariatric institutions were included in this study. Co-morbidities and other preoperative characteristics were gathered, and %EWL was calculated for 1, 3, and 12 months. Excess weight loss (%EWL)failure. Multiple variate analysis was used to find factors that affect %EWL at 12 months. Preoperative sleep apnea, preoperative diabetes, %EWL at 1 month, and %EWL at 3 months all affect %EWL at 1 year. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of our model was 72% and 91%, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 91%, respectively. One-year results of the SG can be predicted by diabetes, sleep apnea, and weight loss velocity at 3 months postoperatively. This can help surgeons direct surgical or medical interventions for patients at 3 months rather than at 1 year or beyond. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Long-term sickness absence due to back disorders in crane operators exposed to whole-body vibration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bongers, P. M.; Boshuizen, H. C.; Hulshof, C. T.; KOEMEESTER, A. P.

    1988-01-01

    In a retrospective (10-year) follow-up study, the incidence of at least one spell of sickness absenteeism of 28 d or longer in crane operators exposed to whole-body vibration and a control group was investigated. In contrast to a previous study on permanent work disability in the same groups, no

  3. Six years of operating experience of the United States' deep geologic disposal site with long-term community support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piper, L.

    2006-01-01

    This document presents in a series of transparencies the history of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) facility of the US-DOE, the WIPP repository characteristics, regulatory framework, transportation system and approved shipping routes, the WIPP disposal operations since March 1999, the communities involved, the safety aspects, the community support and positive impact. (J.S.)

  4. Santa Maria de Garoña, goals of I&C at its Long Term Operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alutiz, J. L.

    2016-07-01

    Santa Maria de Garoña (SMG) Nuclear Power Plant is a GE BWR/3 connected to the grid in 1971 and operated by Nuclenor, S.A. It is owned by two of the largest spanish electrical utilities, Endesa and Iberdrola, each with 50% ownership. Garoña was powered down in December 2012 due to financial reasons and was formally closed for decommissioning in July 2013. One year later, SMG has applied to re-open the plant until 2031. To ensure the continued safe, reliable and efficient operation of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), it is essential to address obsolescence, aging and reliability Instrumentation and Control (I&C) Issues, and must therefore take into consideration these two major issues with the following goals: (1) To ensure that current analog and digital I&C systems are not life-limiting issues for the operation of the plant. (2) To implement digital Instrumentation,Information & Control systems (II&C) technologies, improving efficiency and performance of the internal work processes, and, to monitor the main assets of the plant, targeting operation and management costs. This paper will describe the strategy developed for a single unit, in this case the SMG NPP, to face the above mentioned challenges. (Author)

  5. An ionization pressure gauge with LaB6 emitter for long-term operation in strong magnetic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, U.; Pedersen, T. S.; Marquardt, M.; Singer, M.

    2018-03-01

    We report here on a potentially significant improvement in the design of neutral pressure gauges of the so-called ASDEX-type which were first used in the Axially Symmetric Divertor EXperiment (ASDEX). Such gauges are considered state-of-the-art and are in wide use in fusion experiments, but they nonetheless suffer from a relatively high failure rate when operated at high magnetic field strengths for long times. This is therefore a significant concern for long-pulse, high-field experiments such as Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) and ITER. The new design is much more robust. The improvement is to use a LaB6 crystal instead of a tungsten wire as the thermionic emitter of electrons in the gauge. Such a LaB6 prototype gauge was successfully operated for a total of 60 h in B = 3.1 T, confirming the significantly improved robustness of the new design and qualifying it for near-term operation in W7-X. With the LaB6 crystal, an order of magnitude reduction in heating current is achieved, relative to the tungsten filament based gauges, from 15-20 A to 1-2 A. This reduces the Lorenz forces and the heating power by an order of magnitude also and is presumably the reason for the much improved robustness. The new gauge design, test environment setup at the superconducting magnet, and results from test operation are described.

  6. GEOSAF Part II. Demonstration of the operational and long-term safety of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste. IAEA international intercomparison and harmonization project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumano, Yumiko; Bruno, Gerard [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria). Vienna International Centre; Tichauer, Michael [IRSN, Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Hedberg, Bengt [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2015-07-01

    International intercomparison and harmonization projects are one of the mechanisms developed by the IAEA for examining the application and use of safety standards, with a view to ensuring their effectiveness and working towards harmonization of approaches to the safety of radioactive waste management. The IAEA has organized a number of international projects on the safety of radioactive waste management; in particular on the issues related to safety demonstration for radioactive waste management facilities. In 2008, GEOSAF, Demonstration of The Operational and Long-Term Safety of Geological Disposal Facilities for Radioactive Waste, project was initiated. This project was completed in 2011 by delivering a project report focusing on the safety case for geological disposal facilities, a concept that has gained in recent years considerable prominence in the waste management area and is addressed in several international safety standards. During the course of the project, it was recognized that little work was undertaken internationally to develop a common view on the safety approach related to the operational phase of a geological disposal although long-term safety of disposal facility has been discussed for several decades. Upon completion of the first part of the GEOSAF project, it was decided to commence a follow-up project aiming at harmonizing approaches on the safety of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste through the development of an integrated safety case covering both operational and long-term safety. The new project was named as GEOSAF Part II, which was initiated in 2012 initially as 2-year project, involving regulators and operators. GEOSAF Part II provides a forum to exchange ideas and experience on the development and review of an integrated operational and post-closure safety case for geological disposal facilities. It also aims at providing a platform for knowledge transfer. The project is of particular interest to regulatory

  7. Functional Analysis in Long-Term Operation of High Power UV-LEDs in Continuous Fluoro-Sensing Systems for Hydrocarbon Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arques-Orobon, Francisco Jose; Nuñez, Neftali; Vazquez, Manuel; Gonzalez-Posadas, Vicente

    2016-01-01

    This work analyzes the long-term functionality of HP (High-power) UV-LEDs (Ultraviolet Light Emitting Diodes) as the exciting light source in non-contact, continuous 24/7 real-time fluoro-sensing pollutant identification in inland water. Fluorescence is an effective alternative in the detection and identification of hydrocarbons. The HP UV-LEDs are more advantageous than classical light sources (xenon and mercury lamps) and helps in the development of a low cost, non-contact, and compact system for continuous real-time fieldwork. This work analyzes the wavelength, output optical power, and the effects of viscosity, temperature of the water pollutants, and the functional consistency for long-term HP UV-LED working operation. To accomplish the latter, an analysis of the influence of two types 365 nm HP UV-LEDs degradation under two continuous real-system working mode conditions was done, by temperature Accelerated Life Tests (ALTs). These tests estimate the mean life under continuous working conditions of 6200 h and for cycled working conditions (30 s ON & 30 s OFF) of 66,000 h, over 7 years of 24/7 operating life of hydrocarbon pollution monitoring. In addition, the durability in the face of the internal and external parameter system variations is evaluated. PMID:26927113

  8. Evaluation of effects of an operational multidisciplinary team on antibiotic use in the medium to long term at a French university hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demoré, Béatrice; Humbert, Pauline; Boschetti, Emmanuelle; Bevilacqua, Sibylle; Clerc-Urmès, Isabelle; May, Thierry; Pulcini, Céline; Thilly, Nathalie

    2017-10-01

    Background Antibiotic-resistant bacteria are a major public health problem throughout the world. In 2006, in accordance with the national guidelines for antibiotic use, the CHRU of Nancy created an operational multidisciplinary antibiotic team at one of its sites. In 2011, a cluster-controlled trial showed that the operational multidisciplinary antibiotic team (the intervention) had a favourable short-term effect on antibiotic use and costs. Objective Our objective was to determine whether these effects continued over the medium to long term (that is, 2-7 years after creation of the operational multidisciplinary antibiotic team, 2009-2014). Setting The 1800-bed University Hospital of Nancy (France). Method The effect in the medium to long term is measured according to the same criteria and assessed by the same methods as the first study. A cluster controlled trial was performed on the period 2009-2014. The intervention group comprised 11 medical and surgical wards in settings where the operational multidisciplinary antibiotic team was implemented and the control group comprised 6 wards without this operational team. Main outcome measure Consumption of antibiotics overall and by therapeutic class (in defined daily doses per 1000 patient-days) and costs savings (in €). Results The reduction in antibiotic use and costs continued, but at a lower rate than in the short term (11% between 2009 and 2014 compared with 33% between 2007 and 2009) at the site of the intervention. The principal decreases concerned fluoroquinolones and glycopeptides. At the site without an operational multidisciplinary antibiotic team (the control group), total antibiotic use remained stable. Between 2009 and 2014, costs fell 10.5% in the intervention group and 5.7% in the control group. Conclusion This study shows that it is possible to maintain the effectiveness over time of such an intervention and demonstrates its role in defining a hospital's antibiotic policy.

  9. An exploratory analysis of criteria for the metabolic syndrome and its prediction of long-term cardiovascular outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girman, C.J.; Dekker, J.M.; Rhodes, T.; Nijpels, M.G.A.A.M.; Stehouwer, C.D.A.; Bouter, L.M.; Heine, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    Studies have shown an increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes with the metabolic syndrome, but information on predictive properties of the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel 3 (NCEP) criteria is sparse. The authors used data from the Hoorn population-based study in the

  10. Long-term predictive value of postsurgical cortisol concentrations for cure and risk of recurrence in Cushing's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pereira, Alberto M.; van Aken, Maarten O.; van Dulken, Hans; Schutte, Pieter J.; Biermasz, Nienke R.; Smit, Jan W. A.; Roelfsema, Ferdinand; Romijn, Johannes A.

    2003-01-01

    We assessed the value of postoperative plasma cortisol concentrations to predict cure and recurrence of Cushing's disease after transsphenoidal surgery (TS). Seventy-eight of 80 consecutive patients treated by TS for Cushing's disease were evaluated. TS cured 72% (n = 56) of the patients. Two weeks

  11. Prediction of the long term accumulation and leaching of copper in Dutch agricultural soils: a risk assessment study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenenberg, J.E.; Römkens, P.F.A.M.; Vries, de W.

    2006-01-01

    This report describes a model study to assess whether current copper inputs on agricultural land lead to accumulation of copper and in time to an exceedance of a Predicted No Effect Concentration. A copper mass balance model was applied to the whole Netherlands. Future copper concentrations after

  12. Long-term meditation training induced changes in the operational synchrony of default mode network modules during a resting state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fingelkurts, Andrew A; Fingelkurts, Alexander A; Kallio-Tamminen, Tarja

    2016-02-01

    Using theoretical analysis of self-consciousness concept and experimental evidence on the brain default mode network (DMN) that constitutes the neural signature of self-referential processes, we hypothesized that the anterior and posterior subnets comprising the DMN should show differences in their integrity as a function of meditation training. Functional connectivity within DMN and its subnets (measured by operational synchrony) has been measured in ten novice meditators using an electroencephalogram (EEG) recording in a pre-/post-meditation intervention design. We have found that while the whole DMN was clearly suppressed, different subnets of DMN responded differently after 4 months of meditation training: The strength of EEG operational synchrony in the right and left posterior modules of the DMN decreased in resting post-meditation condition compared to a pre-meditation condition, whereas the frontal DMN module on the contrary exhibited an increase in the strength of EEG operational synchrony. These findings combined with published data on functional-anatomic heterogeneity within the DMN and on trait subjective experiences commonly found following meditation allow us to propose that the first-person perspective and the sense of agency (the witnessing observer) are presented by the frontal DMN module, while the posterior modules of the DMN are generally responsible for the experience of the continuity of 'I' as embodied and localized within bodily space. Significance of these findings is discussed.

  13. Prediction of Long-Term Benefits of Inhaled Steroids by Phenotypic Markers in Moderate-to-Severe COPD: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiska B Snoeck-Stroband

    Full Text Available The decline in lung function can be reduced by long-term inhaled corticosteroid (ICS treatment in subsets of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. We aimed to identify which clinical, physiological and non-invasive inflammatory characteristics predict the benefits of ICS on lung function decline in COPD.Analysis was performed in 50 steroid-naive compliant patients with moderate to severe COPD (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1, 30-80% of predicted, compatible with GOLD stages II-III, age 45-75 years, >10 packyears smoking and without asthma. Patients were treated with fluticasone propionate (500 μg bid or placebo for 2.5 years. Postbronchodilator FEV1, dyspnea and health status were measured every 3 months; lung volumes, airway hyperresponsiveness (PC20, and induced sputum at 0, 6 and 30 months. A linear mixed effect model was used for analysis of this hypothesis generating study.Significant predictors of attenuated FEV1-decline by fluticasone treatment compared to placebo were: fewer packyears smoking, preserved diffusion capacity, limited hyperinflation and lower inflammatory cell counts in induced sputum (p<0.04.Long-term benefits of ICS on lung function decline in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD are most pronounced in patients with fewer packyears, and less severe emphysema and inflammation. These data generate novel hypotheses on phenotype-driven therapy in COPD.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00158847.

  14. The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

    2016-02-01

    Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

  15. Predicting Long-Term Cognitive Outcome Following Breast Cancer with Pre-Treatment Resting State fMRI and Random Forest Machine Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesler, Shelli R; Rao, Arvind; Blayney, Douglas W; Oakley-Girvan, Ingrid A; Karuturi, Meghan; Palesh, Oxana

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to determine if resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) acquired at pre-treatment baseline could accurately predict breast cancer-related cognitive impairment at long-term follow-up. We evaluated 31 patients with breast cancer (age 34-65) prior to any treatment, post-chemotherapy and 1 year later. Cognitive testing scores were normalized based on data obtained from 43 healthy female controls and then used to categorize patients as impaired or not based on longitudinal changes. We measured clustering coefficient, a measure of local connectivity, by applying graph theory to baseline resting state fMRI and entered these metrics along with relevant patient-related and medical variables into random forest classification. Incidence of cognitive impairment at 1 year follow-up was 55% and was predicted by classification algorithms with up to 100% accuracy ( p breast cancer. This information could inform treatment decision making by identifying patients at highest risk for long-term cognitive impairment.

  16. Predictive models of long-term anatomic outcome in age-related macular degeneration treated with as-needed Ranibizumab.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Buendia, Lucia; Delgado-Tirado, Santiago; Sanabria, M Rosa; Fernandez, Itziar; Coco, Rosa M

    2017-08-18

    To analyze predictors and develop predictive models of anatomic outcome in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) treated with as-needed ranibizumab after 4 years of follow-up. A multicenter consecutive case series non-interventional study was performed. Clinical, funduscopic and OCT characteristics of 194 treatment-naïve patients with AMD treated with as-needed ranibizumab for at least 2 years and up to 4 years were analyzed at baseline, 3 months and each year until the end of the follow-up. Baseline demographic and angiographic characteristics were also evaluated. R Statistical Software was used for statistical analysis. Main outcome measure was final anatomic status. Factors associated with less probability of preserved macula were diagnosis in 2009, older age, worse vision, presence of atrophy/fibrosis, pigment epithelium detachment, and geographic atrophy/fibrotic scar/neovascular AMD in the fellow eye. Factors associated with higher probability of GA were presence of atrophy and greater number of injections, whereas male sex, worse vision, lesser change in central macular thickness and presence of fibrosis were associated with less probability of GA as final macular status. Predictive model of preserved macula vs. GA/fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 77.78% and specificity of 69.09%. Predictive model of GA vs. fibrotic scar showed sensibility of 68.89% and specificity of 72.22%. We identified predictors of final macular status, and developed two predictive models. Predictive models that we propose are based on easily harvested variables, and, if validated, could be a useful tool for individual patient management and clinical research studies.

  17. Structural and mechanical defects of materials of offshore and onshore main gas pipelines after long-term operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruschak, Pavlo; Panin, Sergey; Danyliuk, Iryna; Poberezhnyi, Lyubomyr; Pyrig, Taras; Bishchak, Roman; Vlasov, Ilya

    2015-10-01

    The study has established the main regularities of a fatigue failure of offshore gas steel pipes installed using S-lay and J-lay methods.We have numerically analyzed the influence of preliminary deformation on the fatigue life of 09Mn2Si steel at different amplitudes of cyclic loading. The results have revealed the regularities of formation and development of a fatigue crack in 17Mn1Si steel after 40 years of underground operation. The quantitative analysis describes the regularities of occurrence and growth of fatigue cracks in the presence of a stress concentration.

  18. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: The density HRV parameter Dyx is a new heart rate variability (HRV) measure based on multipole analysis of the Poincaré plot obtained from RR interval time series, deriving information from both the time and frequency domain. Preliminary results have suggested that the parameter may provide...... new predictive information on mortality in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). This study compares the prognostic significance of Dyx to that of traditional linear and nonlinear measures of HRV. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Nordic ICD pilot study, patients with an acute MI were screened...... with 2D echocardiography and 24-hour Holter recordings. The study was designed to assess the power of several HRV measures to predict mortality. Dyx was tested in a subset of 206 consecutive Danish patients with analysable Holter recordings. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years 70 patients had died...

  19. Using individual-condition measures to predict the long-term importance of habitat extent for population persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, Anita J; McWhorter, Todd J; Maron, Martine

    2017-10-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are causing widespread population declines, but identifying how and when to intervene remains challenging. Predicting where extirpations are likely to occur and implementing management actions before losses result may be more cost-effective than trying to reestablish lost populations. Early indicators of pressure on populations could be used to make such predictions. Previous work conducted in 2009 and 2010 identified that the presence of Eastern Yellow Robins (Eopsaltria australis) in 42 sites in a fragmented region of eastern Australia was unrelated to woodland extent within 500 m of a site, but the robins' heterophil:lymphocyte (H:L) ratios (an indicator of chronic stress) were elevated at sites with low levels of surrounding woodland. We resurveyed these 42 sites in 2013 and 2014 for robin presence to determine whether the H:L ratios obtained in 2009 and 2010 predicted the locations of extirpations and whether the previous pattern in H:L ratios was an early sign that woodland extent would become an important predictor of occupancy. We also surveyed for robins at 43 additional sites to determine whether current occupancy could be better predicted by landscape context at a larger scale, relevant to dispersal movements. At the original 42 sites, H:L ratios and extirpations were not related, although only 4 extirpations were observed. Woodland extent within 500 m had become a strong predictor of occupancy. Taken together, these results provide mixed evidence as to whether patterns of individual condition can reveal habitat relationships that become evident as local shifts in occupancy occur but that are not revealed by a single snapshot of species distribution. Across all 85 sites, woodland extent at scales relevant to dispersal (5 km) was not related to occurrence. We recommend that conservation actions focus on regenerating areas of habitat large enough to support robin territories rather than increasing connectivity within the

  20. Predictive Value of Lidocaine infusion for treatment success of Oxcarbazepine long-term therapy in patients with Neuropathic Pain Syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    Maurer, Konrad; Schipper, Sivan; Gantenbein, Andreas; Alon, Eli; Sandor, Peter S

    2013-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Pharmacotherapy in patients with neuropathic pain syndromes (NPS) can be associated with long periods of trial and error before reaching satisfactory analgesia. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a short intravenous (i.v.) infusion of lidocaine may have a predictive value for the efficacy of oxcarbazepine. METHODS: In total, 16 consecutive patients with NPS were studied in a prospective, uncontrolled, open-label study design. Each patient received i.v. lidocaine...

  1. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  2. Long-term results of preventive embolization of renal angiomyolipomas: evaluation of predictive factors of volume decrease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hocquelet, A.; Cornelis, F.; Le Bras, Y.; Meyer, M.; Tricaud, E.; Lasserre, A.S.; Grenier, N. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Urology and Vascular Imaging, Bordeaux (France); Ferriere, J.M.; Robert, G. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Urology Service, Bordeaux (France)

    2014-08-15

    To evaluate the efficacy of selective arterial embolization (SAE) of angiomyolipomas based on the percentage volume reduction after embolization and to identify predictive factors of volume decrease. Patients receiving prophylactic SAE of renal angiomyolipomas were included retrospectively over 3 years. The volume change after SAE and haemorrhagic or surgical events were recorded. Initial tumour volume, percentage tumour fat content, mean tumour density, embolic agent used, number of angiomyolipomas and tuberous sclerosis disease were evaluated as predictive factors of volume decrease. A total of 19 patients with 39 angiomyolipomas were included with median follow-up of 28 months (interquartile range 21-37 months). All treatments were technically successful (92 % primary and 8 % secondary). No distal bleeding or any increase in size or surgical nephrectomy after SAE was recorded. Mean volume reduction was 72 % (±24 %). Volumes before SAE (R{sup 2} = 0.276; p = 0.001), percentage fat content (R{sup 2} = 0.612; p < 0.0001) and mean angiomyolipoma density (R{sup 2} = 0.536; p < 0.0001) were identified as predictive factors of volume decrease. In multivariate regression, only percentage fat content influenced volume decreases. SAE is an efficient treatment for angiomyolipoma devascularisation and volume reduction. A significant reduction of volume is modulated by the initial volume and tissue composition of the tumour. (orig.)

  3. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Hardekopf

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  4. Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Diana M; Ivanescu, Andrada E; Martin, Corby K; Heymsfield, Steven B; Marshall, Kaitlyn; Bodrato, Victoria E; Williamson, Donald A; Anton, Stephen D; Sacks, Frank M; Ryan, Donna; Bray, George A

    2015-03-01

    Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve's capacity to classify participants likely to lose models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  5. Operational Simulation Tools and Long Term Strategic Planning for High Penetrations of PV in the Southeastern United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuohy, Aidan [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, Jeff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Rylander, Matt [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Singhvi, Vikas [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Enbar, Nadav [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Coley, Steven [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Roark, Jeff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ela, Erik [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Pilbrick, Charles Russ [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Rudkevich, Alex [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Hansen, Cliff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-07-11

    Increasing levels of distributed and utility scale Solar Photovoltaics (PV) will have an impact on many utility functions, including distribution system operations, bulk system performance, business models and scheduling of generation. In this project, EPRI worked with Southern Company Services and its affiliates and the Tennessee Valley Authority to assist these utilities in their strategic planning efforts for integrating PV, based on modeling, simulation and analysis using a set of innovative tools. Advanced production simulation models were used to investigate operating reserve requirements. To leverage existing work and datasets, this last task was carried out on the California system. Overall, the project resulted in providing useful information to both of the utilities involved and through the final reports and interactions during the project. The results from this project can be used to inform the industry about new and improved methodologies for understanding solar PV penetration, and will influence ongoing and future research. This report summarizes each of the topics investigated over the 2.5-year project period.

  6. Human sensory Long-Term Potentiation (LTP) predicts visual memory performance and is modulated by the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) Val66Met polymorphism

    OpenAIRE

    King, Rohan; Moreau, David; Russell, Bruce; Kirk, Ian; Wu, Carolyn; Antia, Ushtana; Lamb, Yvette; Spriggs, Meg; Thompson, Chris; Mckay, Nicole; Shelling, Andrew; Waldie, Karen; Teyler, Tim; Hamm, Jeff; Mcnair, Nicolas

    2018-01-01

    Background: Long-Term Potentiation (LTP) is recognised as a core neuronal process underlying long-term memory. However, a direct relationship between LTP and human memory performance is yet to be demonstrated. The first aim of the current study was thus to assess the relationship between LTP and human long-term memory performance. With this also comes an opportunity to explore factors thought to mediate the relationship between LTP and long-term memory, and to gain additional insight into var...

  7. Low pain intensity after opioid withdrawal as a first step of a comprehensive pain rehabilitation program predicts long-term nonuse of opioids in chronic noncancer pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumova, Elena K; Bennemann, Philipp; Kindler, Doris; Schwarzer, Andreas; Zenz, Michael; Maier, Christoph

    2013-09-01

    In specialized pain clinics there is an increasing number of patients with severe chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) despite long-term opioid medication. Few clinical studies show short-term pain relief after opioid withdrawal (OW). We have evaluated the relation between pain intensity after OW and long-term opioid nonuse. One hundred two consecutive patients with severe CNCP despite opioid medication (mean treatment duration, 43 mo) reported pain intensity (numerical rating scale, 0 to 10), Pain Disability Index, mood (CES-D), and quality of life (Short Form 36) before, shortly, and 12 to 24 months after inpatient OW. Total opioid withdrawal (n = 78) or significant dose reduction (DR; n = 24, mean reduction, 82%) was performed after individual decision. Opioid intake 12 to 24 months later, respectively dose increase ≥ 100% (DR group), was considered relapse. T tests, multivariable analysis of variance, logistic regression. After OW current pain intensity significantly decreased on an average by 41% (6.4 ± 2.4 vs. 3.8 ± 2.5), maximal and average pain by 18% and 24%, respectively. Twelve to 24 months later 42 patients (41%) relapsed (31 of the total opioid withdrawal group, 6 of the DR group, 5 lost). Patients without later relapse showed significantly lower pain scores than the later relapsed patients already shortly after OW (5.0 ± 2.2 vs. 5.9 ± 2.1) and 12 to 24 months later (5.5 ± 2.4 vs. 6.5 ± 2.0). There was a significant relation between relapse probability and pain intensity immediately after OW. In many patients with severe CNCP, despite opioid medication, sustainable pain relief can be achieved if OW is included in the rehabilitation program. Consequently, we recommend OW for opioid-resistant CNCP before any opioid escalation. Lower pain intensity shortly after OW may predict the long-term opioid nonuse probability.

  8. Predictive tools and data needs for long term performance of in-situ stabilization and containment systems: DOE/OST stabilization workshop, June 26-27, Park City, Utah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borns, D.J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper summarizes the discussion within the Predictive Tools and Data Needs for Long Term Performance Assessment Subgroup. This subgroup formed at the DOE Office of Science and Technology workshop to address long-term performance of in situ stabilization and containment systems. The workshop was held in Park City, Utah, 26 and 27 June, 1996. All projects, engineering and environmental, have built-in decision processes that involve varying risk/reward scenarios. Such decision-processes maybe awkward to describe but are utilized every day following approaches that range from intuitive to advanced mathematical and numerical. Examples are the selection of components of home sound system, the members of a sports team, investments in a portfolio, and the members of a committee. Inherent in the decision method are an understanding of the function or process of the system requiring a decision or prediction, an understanding of the criteria on which decisions are made such as cost, performance, durability and verifiability. Finally, this process requires a means to judge or predict how the objects, activities, people and processes being analyzed will perform relative to the operations and functions of the system and relative to the decision criteria posed for the problem. These risk and decision analyses are proactive and iterative throughout the life of a remediation project. Prediction inherent to the analyses are based on intuition, experience, trial and error, and system analysis often using numerical approaches

  9. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Comité des collectes à long terme

    2011-01-01

    It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

  10. Long term operation of continuous-flow system with enhanced biological phosphorus removal granules at different COD loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dong; Lv, Yufeng; Zeng, Huiping; Zhang, Jie

    2016-09-01

    In this study, a continuous-flow system with enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) granules was operated at different COD concentrations (200, 300 and 400mgL(-)(1)) to investigate the effect of COD loading on this system. The results showed that when the COD concentration in influent was increased to 400mgL(-)(1), the anaerobic COD removal efficiency and total phosphorus removal efficiency reduced obviously and the settling ability of granules deteriorated due to the proliferation of filamentous bacteria. Moreover, high COD loading inhibited the EPS secretion and destroyed the stability of granules. Results of high-through pyrosequencing indicated that filamentous bacteria had a competitive advantage over polyphosphate-accumulating organisms (PAOs) at high COD loading. The performance of system, settling ability of granules and proportion of PAOs gradually recovered to the initial level after the COD concentration was reduced to 200mgL(-)(1) on day 81. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Durability of bends in high-temperature steam lines under the conditions of long-term operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katanakha, N. A.; Semenov, A. S.; Getsov, L. B.

    2015-04-01

    The article presents the results of stress-strain state computations and durability of bent and steeply curved branches of high-temperature steam lines carried out on the basis of the finite element method using the modified Soderberg formula for describing unsteady creep processes with taking the accumulation of damage into account. The computations were carried out for bends made of steel grades that are most widely used for manufacturing steam lines (12Kh1MF, 15Kh1M1F, and 10Kh9MFB) and operating at different levels of inner pressure and temperature. The solutions obtained using the developed creep model are compared with those obtained using the models widely used in practice.

  12. Compressed sensing embedded in an operational wireless sensor network to achieve energy efficiency in long-term monitoring applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O’Connor, S M; Lynch, J P; Gilbert, A C

    2014-01-01

    Compressed sensing (CS) is a powerful new data acquisition paradigm that seeks to accurately reconstruct unknown sparse signals from very few (relative to the target signal dimension) random projections. The specific objective of this study is to save wireless sensor energy by using CS to simultaneously reduce data sampling rates, on-board storage requirements, and communication data payloads. For field-deployed low power wireless sensors that are often operated with limited energy sources, reduced communication translates directly into reduced power consumption and improved operational reliability. In this study, acceleration data from a multi-girder steel-concrete deck composite bridge are processed for the extraction of mode shapes. A wireless sensor node previously designed to perform traditional uniform, Nyquist rate sampling is modified to perform asynchronous, effectively sub-Nyquist rate sampling. The sub-Nyquist data are transmitted off-site to a computational server for reconstruction using the CoSaMP matching pursuit recovery algorithm and further processed for extraction of the structure’s mode shapes. The mode shape metric used for reconstruction quality is the modal assurance criterion (MAC), an indicator of the consistency between CS and traditional Nyquist acquired mode shapes. A comprehensive investigation of modal accuracy from a dense set of acceleration response data reveals that MAC values above 0.90 are obtained for the first four modes of a bridge structure when at least 20% of the original signal is sampled using the CS framework. Reduced data collection, storage and communication requirements are found to lead to substantial reductions in the energy requirements of wireless sensor networks at the expense of modal accuracy. Specifically, total energy reductions of 10–60% can be obtained for a sensor network with 10–100 sensor nodes, respectively. The reduced energy requirements of the CS sensor nodes are shown to directly result in

  13. The nutritional index 'CONUT' is useful for predicting long-term prognosis of patients with end-stage liver diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukushima, Koji; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Kawagishi, Naoki; Kondo, Yasuteru; Inoue, Jun; Kakazu, Eiji; Ninomiya, Masashi; Wakui, Yuta; Saito, Naoko; Satomi, Susumu; Shimosegawa, Tooru

    2011-07-01

    Organ allocation in Japan remains difficult due to the shortage of deceased-donor livers. The screening tool for controlling nutritional status (CONUT) has been considered to be an established assessment model for evaluating nutritional aspects in surgical patients. However, the application of this CONUT for evaluating the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver diseases has not been evaluated. We assessed the predictability of the prognoses of 58 patients with end-stage liver disease using various prognostic models. The patients registered at the transplantation center of Tohoku University Hospital for the waiting list of Japan Organ Transplant Network for liver transplantation were retrospectively analyzed. The prognoses of the patients were evaluated using the following 5 models: CONUT, the model for ELD with incorporation of sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), prognostic nutritional indices (Onodera: PNI-O), and the Japan Medical Urgency criteria of the liver (JMU). Cox's proportional hazard model, log-rank test and concordance(c)-static were used for the statistics. The indices were 17.74 ± 5.80 for MELD-Na, 9.21 ± 2.19 for CTP, 33.92 ± 11.16 for PNI-O, and 7.57 ± 3.09 for CONUT. Univariate analysis revealed the significance of CONUT (p = 0.017, Odds: 1.325) but not MELD-Na, CTP, JMU or PNI-O for prediction. The cumulative survival rate was clearly discriminated at CONUT point 7. The c-static was 0.081 for the 6-month (M) survival rate, 0.172 for 12M, 0.517 for 36M, 0.821 for 48M, and 0.938 for 60M for CONUT. In conclusion, CONUT shows best predictability for the distant prognoses of patients with ELD.

  14. National-scale exposure prediction for long-term concentrations of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun-Young; Song, Insang

    2017-07-01

    The limited spatial coverage of the air pollution data available from regulatory air quality monitoring networks hampers national-scale epidemiological studies of air pollution. The present study aimed to develop a national-scale exposure prediction model for estimating annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at residences in South Korea using regulatory monitoring data for 2010. Using hourly measurements of PM 10 and NO 2 at 277 regulatory monitoring sites, we calculated the annual average concentrations at each site. We also computed 322 geographic variables in order to represent plausible local and regional pollution sources. Using these data, we developed universal kriging models, including three summary predictors estimated by partial least squares (PLS). The model performance was evaluated with fivefold cross-validation. In sensitivity analyses, we compared our approach with two alternative approaches, which added regional interactions and replaced the PLS predictors with up to ten selected variables. Finally, we predicted the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at 83,463 centroids of residential census output areas in South Korea to investigate the population exposure to these pollutants and to compare the exposure levels between monitored and unmonitored areas. The means of the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 for 2010, across regulatory monitoring sites in South Korea, were 51.63 μg/m3 (SD = 8.58) and 25.64 ppb (11.05), respectively. The universal kriging exposure prediction models yielded cross-validated R 2 s of 0.45 and 0.82 for PM 10 and NO 2 , respectively. Compared to our model, the two alternative approaches gave consistent or worse performances. Population exposure levels in unmonitored areas were lower than in monitored areas. This is the first study that focused on developing a national-scale point wise exposure prediction approach in South Korea, which will allow national exposure assessments and

  15. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy: A Retrospective Analysis of 7781 Gastric Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy.Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer.We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups.Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212-1.869, P cancer recurrence.

  16. General inattentiveness is a long-term reliable trait independently predictive of psychological health: Danish validation studies of the Mindful Attention Awareness Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Petersen, Anders; Hasselbalch, Steen Gregers

    2016-05-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress and mental health, after controlling for age, gender, income, socioeconomic occupational class, stressful life events, and social desirability (β = 0.32-.42, ps health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Planning for the Transition to Long-Term Stewardship at Three U.S. Department of Energy-Chicago Operations Office Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moos, L. P.; Ditmars, J. D.; Heston, S. L.; Granzen, G. A.; Holzemer, M. J.; Bennett, D. B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes a pilot study that resulted in the generation of draft planning documents for the upcoming transition from remediation construction to long-term stewardship at three national laboratories managed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-Chicago Operations Office (CH). The remediation construction work at these facilities is being completed under the DOE's Office of Environmental Management (EM) Program. Once the remediation is complete, the responsibility for long-term stewardship (LTS) of the closed waste sites is expected to be transferred to the DOE organization responsible for managing each of the three facilities (i.e., the site landlord). To prepare for this transfer, an extensive planning effort is required. This pilot study utilized the DOE guidance in effect at the time to (1) develop a series of documents identifying applicable requirements that the LTS Programs will need to satisfy, issues that need to be resolved before the transfer can proceed, and criteria to be used to determine when active remediation is complete and a given site is ready for transfer to the LTS Program; (2) examine alternate structures for possible LTS Programs; and (3) develop draft LTS Implementation Plans. This advanced planning effort yielded a number of observations and lessons learned that are applicable to any facility approaching the end of its remediation construction phase

  18. Multi-period MINLP model for optimising operation and structural changes to CHP plants in district heating networks with long-term thermal storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveit, Tor-Martin; Savola, Tuula; Gebremedhin, Alemayehu; Fogelholm, Carl-Johan

    2009-01-01

    By using thermal storages it is possible to decouple the generation of power and heat, and it can also lead to an reduction in investments, as the storage can be used to cover the peak load periods. This work presents a MINLP model that can be used for analysing new investments and the long-term operation of CHP plants in a district heating network with long-term thermal storage. The model presented in this work includes the non-linear off-design behaviour of the CHP plants as well as a generic mathematical model of the thermal storage, without the need to fix temperatures and pressure. The model is formulated in such a way that it is suitable for deterministic MINLP solvers. The model is non-convex, and subsequently global optimality cannot be guaranteed with local solvers. In order to reduce the chance of obtaining a poor local optimum compared to the global optimum, the model should be solved many times with the initial values varying randomly. It is possible to extract a lot of results from the model, for instance total annual profit, the optimal selection of process options, mass flow through the plant, and generated power from each plant. The formulation of the model makes it suitable for deterministic MINLP solvers

  19. Usefulness of desmopressin testing to predict relapse during long-term follow-up in patients in remission from Cushing’s disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Giacinto Ambrogio

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Recurrence of Cushing’s disease after successful transsphenoidal surgery occurs in some 30% of the patients and the response to desmopressin shortly after surgery has been proposed as a marker for disease recurrence. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the response to desmopressin over time after surgery. We tested 56 patients with Cushing’s disease in remission after transsphenoidal surgery with desmopressin for up to 20 years after surgery. The ACTH and cortisol response to desmopressin over time was evaluated in patients on long-term remission or undergoing relapse; an increase by at least 27 pg/mL in ACTH levels identified responders. The vast majority of patients who underwent successful adenomectomy failed to respond to desmopressin after surgery and this response pattern was maintained over time in patients on long-term remission. Conversely, a response to desmopressin reappeared in patients who subsequently developed a recurrence of Cushing’s disease, even years prior to frank hypercortisolism. It appears therefore that a change in the response pattern to desmopressin proves predictive of recurrence of Cushing’s disease and may indicate which patients require close monitoring.

  20. Exercise Predicts Long-Term Weight Loss in Women With Class 1 and Class 2 Obesity Through Effects on Emotional Eating and its Correlates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annesi, James J

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between exercise and long-term weight loss is definitive. However, in deconditioned individuals, the basis of that relationship beyond minimal energy expenditures is unclear. Effects emanating from exercise's proposed association with changes in emotional eating and its psychosocial correlates were tested. Women with class 1 (n = 67) and class 2 (n = 53) obesity, participating in a new community-based weight-loss treatment based on tenets of social cognitive theory, were assessed at baseline and Months 3, 6, 12, and 24 on weight and measures of exercise outputs, emotional eating, eating self-regulation, and negative mood. An exercise-support component was provided for 2 months prior to group nutrition-change sessions. Improvements from baseline were significant on all measures but did not significantly differ by group. Although not for the initial 3 months, changes in exercise significantly predicted weight changes over 6, 12, and 24 months from baseline. However, only 26%-31% of the lost weight was directly attributable to exercise-related energy expenditures. Changes in emotional eating significantly mediated the exercise-weight-loss relationship, and changes in self-regulation and mood significantly mediated the exercise-emotional eating relationship. Findings supported exercise's role in long-term weight loss primarily through psychosocial factors.

  1. Long-term results of the Heller-Dor operation with intraoperative manometry for the treatment of esophageal achalasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattioli, Sandro; Ruffato, Alberto; Lugaresi, Marialuisa; Pilotti, Vladimiro; Aramini, Beatrice; D'Ovidio, Frank

    2010-11-01

    Quality of outcome of the Heller-Dor operation is sometimes different between studies, likely because of technical reasons. We analyze the details of myotomy and fundoplication in relation to the results achieved over a 30-year single center's experience. From 1979-2008, a long esophagogastric myotomy and a partial anterior fundoplication to protect the surface of the myotomy was routinely performed with intraoperative manometry in 202 patients (97 men; median age, 55.5 years; interquartile range, 43.7-71 years) through a laparotomy and in 60 patients (24 men; median age, 46 years; interquartile range, 36.2-63 years) through a laparoscopy. The follow-up consisted of periodical interview, endoscopy, and barium swallow, and a semiquantitative scale was used to grade results. Mortality was 1 of 202 in the laparotomy group and 0 of 60 in the laparoscopy group. Median follow-up was 96 months (interquartile range, 48-190.5 months) in the laparotomy group and 48 months (interquartile range, 27-69.5 months) in the laparoscopy group. At intraoperative manometry, complete abolition of the high-pressure zone was obtained in 100%. The Dor-related high-pressure zone length and mean pressure were 4.5 ± 0.4 cm and 13.3 ± 2.2 mm Hg in the laparotomy group and 4.5 ± 0.5 cm and 13.2 ± 2.2 mm Hg in the laparoscopy group (P = .75). In the laparotomy group poor results (19/201 [9.5%]) were secondary to esophagitis in 15 (7.5%) of 201 patients (in 2 patients after 184 and 252 months, respectively) and to recurrent dysphagia in 4 (2%) of 201 patients, all with end-stage sigmoid achalasia. In the laparoscopy group 2 (3.3%) of 60 had esophagitis. A long esophagogastric myotomy protected by means of Dor fundoplication cures or substantially reduces dysphagia in the great majority of patients affected by esophageal achalasia and effectively controls postoperative esophagitis. Intraoperative manometry is likely the key factor for achieving the reported results. Copyright © 2010 The

  2. Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chieh-Fan Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  3. Kinetic modelling of bentonite-canister interaction. Long-term predictions of copper canister corrosion under oxic and anoxic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wersin, P.; Spahiu, K.; Bruno, J.

    1994-09-01

    A new modelling approach for canister corrosion which emphasises chemical processes and diffusion at the bentonite-canister interface is presented. From the geochemical boundary conditions corrosion rates for both an anoxic case and an oxic case are derived and uncertainties thereof are estimated via sensitivity analyses. Time scales of corrosion are assessed by including calculations of the evolution of redox potential in the near field and pitting corrosion. This indicates realistic corrosion depths in the range of 10 -7 and 4*10 -5 mm/yr, respectively for anoxic and oxic corrosion. Taking conservative estimates, depths are increased by a factor of about 200 for both cases. From these predictions it is suggested that copper canister corrosion does not constitute a problem for repository safety, although certain factors such as temperature and radiolysis have not been explicitly included. The possible effect of bacterial processes on corrosion should be further investigated as it might enhance locally the described redox process. 35 refs, 11 figs, 6 tabs

  4. Kinetic modelling of bentonite-canister interaction. Long-term predictions of copper canister corrosion under oxic and anoxic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wersin, P; Spahiu, K; Bruno, J [MBT Tecnologia Ambiental, Cerdanyola (Spain)

    1994-09-01

    A new modelling approach for canister corrosion which emphasises chemical processes and diffusion at the bentonite-canister interface is presented. From the geochemical boundary conditions corrosion rates for both an anoxic case and an oxic case are derived and uncertainties thereof are estimated via sensitivity analyses. Time scales of corrosion are assessed by including calculations of the evolution of redox potential in the near field and pitting corrosion. This indicates realistic corrosion depths in the range of 10{sup -7} and 4*10{sup -5} mm/yr, respectively for anoxic and oxic corrosion. Taking conservative estimates, depths are increased by a factor of about 200 for both cases. From these predictions it is suggested that copper canister corrosion does not constitute a problem for repository safety, although certain factors such as temperature and radiolysis have not been explicitly included. The possible effect of bacterial processes on corrosion should be further investigated as it might enhance locally the described redox process. 35 refs, 11 figs, 6 tabs.

  5. Factors impacting short and long-term kidney graft survival: modification by single intra-operative -high-dose induction with ATG-Fresenius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaden, Jürgen; May, Gottfried; Völp, Andreas; Wesslau, Claus

    2011-01-01

    A majority of recipients benefited from the intra-operative single high-dose induction (HDI) with ATG-Fresenius (ATG-F) still leaving a group of recipients who did not profit from this kind of induction. Therefore the aim of this retrospective analysis was 1st to identify the risk factors impacting short and long-term graft survival, and 2nd to assess the efficacy of this type of induction in kidney graft recipients with or without these risk factors. A total of 606 recipients receiving two different immunosuppressive treatment regimens (1st: Triple drug therapy [TDT, n=196] consisting mainly of steroids, azathioprine and cyclosporine; 2nd: TDT + 9 mg/kg ATG-F intra-operatively [HDI, n=410]) were included in this analysis and grouped according to their kidney graft survival time (short GST: ≤1 yr, n=100 and long GST: >5 yrs, n=506). The main risk factors associated with a shortened graft survival were pre-transplant sensitization, re-transplantation, rejections (in particular vascular or mixed ones) and the necessity of a long-term anti-rejection therapy. Adding ATG-F single high dose induction to TDT was more efficient in prolonging kidney graft survival than TDT alone not only in recipients without any risk factors (p<0.005) but also in recipients with at least one risk factor (p<0.021). Only in 4.6% of recipients having two or more risk factors this effect could not be demonstrated. The intra-operative single high-dose induction with ATG-F significantly improves the kidney graft survival in recipients with or without risk factors and can therefore be recommended.

  6. Long-term effects of chronic intermittent ethanol exposure in adolescent and adult rats: radial-arm maze performance and operant food reinforced responding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary-Louise Risher

    Full Text Available Adolescence is not only a critical period of late-stage neurological development in humans, but is also a period in which ethanol consumption is often at its highest. Given the prevalence of ethanol use during this vulnerable developmental period we assessed the long-term effects of chronic intermittent ethanol (CIE exposure during adolescence, compared to adulthood, on performance in the radial-arm maze (RAM and operant food-reinforced responding in male rats.Male Sprague Dawley rats were exposed to CIE (or saline and then allowed to recover. Animals were then trained in either the RAM task or an operant task using fixed- and progressive- ratio schedules. After baseline testing was completed all animals received an acute ethanol challenge while blood ethanol levels (BECs were monitored in a subset of animals. CIE exposure during adolescence, but not adulthood decreased the amount of time that animals spent in the open portions of the RAM arms (reminiscent of deficits in risk-reward integration and rendered animals more susceptible to the acute effects of an ethanol challenge on working memory tasks. The operant food reinforced task showed that these effects were not due to altered food motivation or to differential sensitivity to the nonspecific performance-disrupting effects of ethanol. However, CIE pre-treated animals had lower BEC levels than controls during the acute ethanol challenges indicating persistent pharmacokinetic tolerance to ethanol after the CIE treatment. There was little evidence of enduring effects of CIE alone on traditional measures of spatial and working memory.These effects indicate that adolescence is a time of selective vulnerability to the long-term effects of repeated ethanol exposure on neurobehavioral function and acute ethanol sensitivity. The positive and negative findings reported here help to further define the nature and extent of the impairments observed after adolescent CIE and provide direction for future

  7. Long-Term Effects of Chronic Intermittent Ethanol Exposure in Adolescent and Adult Rats: Radial-Arm Maze Performance and Operant Food Reinforced Responding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risher, Mary-Louise; Fleming, Rebekah L.; Boutros, Nathalie; Semenova, Svetlana; Wilson, Wilkie A.; Levin, Edward D.; Markou, Athina; Swartzwelder, H. Scott; Acheson, Shawn K.

    2013-01-01

    Background Adolescence is not only a critical period of late-stage neurological development in humans, but is also a period in which ethanol consumption is often at its highest. Given the prevalence of ethanol use during this vulnerable developmental period we assessed the long-term effects of chronic intermittent ethanol (CIE) exposure during adolescence, compared to adulthood, on performance in the radial-arm maze (RAM) and operant food-reinforced responding in male rats. Methodology/Principal Findings Male Sprague Dawley rats were exposed to CIE (or saline) and then allowed to recover. Animals were then trained in either the RAM task or an operant task using fixed- and progressive- ratio schedules. After baseline testing was completed all animals received an acute ethanol challenge while blood ethanol levels (BECs) were monitored in a subset of animals. CIE exposure during adolescence, but not adulthood decreased the amount of time that animals spent in the open portions of the RAM arms (reminiscent of deficits in risk-reward integration) and rendered animals more susceptible to the acute effects of an ethanol challenge on working memory tasks. The operant food reinforced task showed that these effects were not due to altered food motivation or to differential sensitivity to the nonspecific performance-disrupting effects of ethanol. However, CIE pre-treated animals had lower BEC levels than controls during the acute ethanol challenges indicating persistent pharmacokinetic tolerance to ethanol after the CIE treatment. There was little evidence of enduring effects of CIE alone on traditional measures of spatial and working memory. Conclusions/Significance These effects indicate that adolescence is a time of selective vulnerability to the long-term effects of repeated ethanol exposure on neurobehavioral function and acute ethanol sensitivity. The positive and negative findings reported here help to further define the nature and extent of the impairments observed

  8. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  9. Survival and cardiovascular events after coarctation-repair in long-term follow-up (COAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, P; Pabst von Ohain, J; Kaemmerer, H; Ewert, P; Hager, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term sequelae and events after coarctation repair are well described. However, the predictive value of variables from clinical follow-up investigation for late events and survival has rarely been investigated. All patients who participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for reevaluation of survival, current clinical status and major cardiovascular events. Of 273 eligible patients, 209 were available for follow-up. Nine patients had died at a median age of 46years (range 30-64years), five of them due to cardiovascular complications. Late mortality after surgical intervention was 5.7% with a median age of 41years (range 16-64years). Twenty-five patients had a major cardiovascular event: 12 had procedures at the aortic valve or aortic arch, 8 had procedures for restenosis, 2 had endocarditis, 2 had a cerebrovascular insult and 1 an aortic dissection. The presence of bicuspid aortic valve (p=0.009), brachial-ankle blood pressure gradient >20mmHg (p<0.001) and reduced left ventricular function (p=0.002) correlated with major cardiovascular events. Surgical correction of coarctation of the aorta shows fairly low mortality in the long-term follow-up. Late morbidities include recoarctation, but also the consequences of the hemodynamics produced by a congenital bicuspid aortic valve, presence of which is predictive for aortic valve procedures: however the predictive value of clinical variables is limited. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.