WorldWideScience

Sample records for long-term operation prediction

  1. Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p < 0.0001). The estimated perioperative risk by each model was used to develop an algorithm to predict long-term death. The hazard ratios for death were 1.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.12) for European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo

  2. Prediction of Long-term Post-operative Testosterone Replacement Requirement Based on the Pre-operative Tumor Volume and Testosterone Level in Pituitary Macroadenoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Cheng-Chi; Chen, Chung-Ming; Lee, Shih-Tseng; Wei, Kuo-Chen; Pai, Ping-Ching; Toh, Cheng-Hong; Chuang, Chi-Cheng

    2015-11-05

    Non-functioning pituitary macroadenomas (NFPAs) are the most prevalent pituitary macroadenomas. One common symptom of NFPA is hypogonadism, which may require long-term hormone replacement. This study was designed to clarify the association between the pre-operative tumor volume, pre-operative testosterone level, intraoperative resection status and the need of long-term post-operative testosterone replacement. Between 2004 and 2012, 45 male patients with NFPAs were enrolled in this prospective study. All patients underwent transsphenoidal surgery. Hypogonadism was defined as total serum testosterone levels of testosterone to patients with defined hypogonadism or clinical symptoms of hypogonadism. Hormone replacement for longer than 1 year was considered as long-term therapy. The need for long-term post-operative testosterone replacement was significantly associated with larger pre-operative tumor volume (p = 0.0067), and lower pre-operative testosterone level (p = 0.0101). There was no significant difference between the gross total tumor resection and subtotal resection groups (p = 0.1059). The pre-operative tumor volume and testosterone level impact post-operative hypogonadism. By measuring the tumor volume and the testosterone level and by performing adequate tumor resection, surgeons will be able to predict post-operative hypogonadism and the need for long-term hormone replacement.

  3. Prediction of prestressing losses for long term operation of nuclear reactor buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thillard G.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Prestressed concrete is used in nuclear reactor buildings to guarantee containment and structural integrity in case of an accident. Monitoring and operating experience over 40 years has shown that prestressing losses can be much greater than the design estimation based on the usual standard laws. A method was developed to determine the realistic residual prestress level in structures, in particular for those where no embedded instrumentation was installed, taking into account in situ measurement results rather than design characteristics. The results can enable the owner to justify extending the lifespan while guaranteeing adequate safety and to define and plan adequate maintenance actions.

  4. On long term climate prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thatcher, M.

    1990-08-01

    On the occasion of the opening of The Hadley Centre in Bracknell, Berkshire on May 25, 1990, Britain's Prime Minister, the Rt. Hon. Margaret Thatcher, FRS, related the significance of the Centre to the Scientific Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change which was published on the same day. The Report confirms that greenhouse gases are increasing substantially as a result of man's activites; that this will warm the Earth's surface, with serious consequences for us all, and that these consequences are capable of prediction. We want to predict them more accurately. Calling the Report an authoritative early warning system which could be ignored only at great risk to future generations, Mrs. Margaret Thatcher described the role of the Centre in enabling the establishment of a realistic international program and timetable for action.

  5. Prediction of Long-term Post-operative Testosterone Replacement Requirement Based on the Pre-operative Tumor Volume and Testosterone Level in Pituitary Macroadenoma

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng-Chi Lee; Chung-Ming Chen; Shih-Tseng Lee; Kuo-Chen Wei; Ping-Ching Pai; Cheng-Hong Toh; Chi-Cheng Chuang

    2015-01-01

    Non-functioning pituitary macroadenomas (NFPAs) are the most prevalent pituitary macroadenomas. One common symptom of NFPA is hypogonadism, which may require long-term hormone replacement. This study was designed to clarify the association between the pre-operative tumor volume, pre-operative testosterone level, intraoperative resection status and the need of long-term post-operative testosterone replacement. Between 2004 and 2012, 45 male patients with NFPAs were enrolled in this prospective...

  6. Climate Predictability and Long Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Blender, R.; Fraedrich, K.; Liu, Z.

    2010-09-01

    The benefit of climate Long Term Memory (LTM) for long term prediction is assessed using data from a millennium control simulation with the atmosphere ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM. The forecast skills are evaluated for surface temperature time series at individual grid points. LTM is characterised by the Hurst exponent in the power-law scaling of the fluctuation function which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). LTM with a Hurst exponent close to 0.9 occurs mainly in high latitude oceans, which are also characterized by high potential predictability. Climate predictability is diagnosed in terms of potentially predictable variance fractions. Explicit prediction experiments for various time steps are conducted on a grid point basis using an auto-correlation (AR1) predictor: in regions with LTM, prediction skills are beyond that expected from red noise persistence; exceptions occur in some areas in the southern oceans and over the northern hemisphere continents. Extending the predictability analysis to the fully forced simulation shows large improvement in prediction skills.

  7. Prediction of Bond Wire Fatigue of IGBTs in a PV Inverter Under a Long-Term Operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reigosa, Paula Diaz; Wang, Huai; Yang, Yongheng

    2016-01-01

    Bond wire fatigue is one of the dominant failure mechanisms in IGBT modules under cyclic stresses. However, there are still major challenges ahead to achieve a realistic bond wire lifetime prediction in field operation. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based analysis method to predict the lifetime...

  8. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ewing, R.C. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-09-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., {open_quotes}natural analogues{close_quotes}) provide perhaps the only means of partial {open_quotes}validation,{close_quotes} as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10{sup 3}-10{sup 8} years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the {open_quotes}validation{close_quotes} of performance assessments.

  9. Long-term behaviour of concrete: development of operational model to predict the evolution of its containment performance. Application to cemented waste packages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peycelon, H.; Le Bescop, P.; Richet, C. [CEA Saclay, Dept. de Physico-Chimie, DPC, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Adenot, F. [CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France). Dept. d' Entreposage et de Stockage des Dechets; Blanc, V. [Cogema, 78 - Saint Quentin en Yvelines (France)

    2001-07-01

    In order to describe the main phenomena during different stages of cement waste packages life-time and to predict the long-term behaviour (containment performance) of concrete, coupled experiments and modelling studies are achieved. With respect to logical methodology, improvement of these studies is accomplished. Degradation of concrete in low mineralized, carbonated and sulfated water lead to an evolution of chemical characteristics (dissolution/precipitation of solid phases) and of transport properties which must be included or coupled in retention/transport modelling of radio nuclides to predict containment performance. (author)

  10. Long-term follow-up of trigonoplasty antireflux operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifiaghdas, Farzaneh; Mahmoudnejad, Nastaran; Kashi, Amir H; Ramezani, Mehdi H; Narouie, Behzad

    2017-02-03

    Open trigonoplasty antireflux operation has been associated with promising results. However, its success in controlling reflux has not been evaluated in the long term. All patients who underwent trigonoplasty for vesicoureteral reflux by one surgeon from 2004 to 2014 were included. Preoperative evaluations included direct radionuclide cystography (DRNC) or voiding cystourethrography, urine analysis and culture and abdominal sonography. Urodynamic study and cystoscopy was performed in selected patients. Trigonoplasty was done by a modified Gil-Verent method. The latest available patients' DRNCs were used to judge for reflux relapse. Ninety-one patients, 142 refluxing units; median (range) age, 10.5 (1-45) years; M/F, (11/80) were followed for 18 to 135 months. Reflux resolution rate was 73.6% for patients and 75.4% for refluxing units. Relapse was associated with reflux grade (67% in grade V), ureteral orifice appearance (40% in golf hole/stadium), and patients with a history of pyelonephritis. Multivariable model based on the above variables had less than 10% sensitivity in predicting relapse. Trigonoplasty success rate can decrease with long-term follow-up.

  11. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelly; Waltman, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a pub

  12. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a pub

  13. Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, Clara; Litvak, Nelli; Waltman, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: the impact factor of the journal in which a pub

  14. Optimizing Long-Term Capital Planning for Special Operations Forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    TERM CAPITAL PLANNING FOR SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES by Gretchen M. Radke June 2015 Thesis Advisor: Emily Craparo Co-Advisor: Jonathan Alt...REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE OPTIMIZING LONG-TERM CAPITAL PLANNING FOR SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES 5...words) The United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) J8 directorate is responsible for planning long-range capital expenditure for Special

  15. Prediction of Long Term Degradation of Insulating Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    fiberglass, foam, or cellulose insulation in areas where thermal bridges may be formed or used in places where it is not practical to install thicker...ER D C/ CE RL T R- 15 -8 Prediction of Long Term Degradation of Insulating Materials Co ns tr uc tio n En gi ne er in g R es ea rc h...acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/default. ERDC/CERL TR-15-8 May 2015 Prediction of Long Term Degradation of Insulating Materials L. D. Stephenson, Andrew

  16. Clinical scales in progressive MS: predicting long-term disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosma, Libertje V A E; Kragt, Jolijn J; Knol, Dirk L; Polman, Chris H; Uitdehaag, Bernard M J

    2012-03-01

    To determine which short-term changes on clinical scales including the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), 9-Hole Peg test (9HPT) and Guy's Neurological Disability Scale (GNDS) are most predictive of long-term outcome of disability as rated by the EDSS in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). From a longitudinal database, all progressive patients, both primary (PP) and secondary (SP), were selected on the basis of at least two complete examinations being available within a time interval of 1-2 years (short-term change). All patients who fulfilled the selection criteria were invited for a third visit after an interval of at least 3 years (long-term outcome). We used ordinal logistic regression to see which early changes were most predictive of the long-term EDSS. 181 patients fulfilled the selection criteria. Early change on EDSS and T25FW were the best predictors of long-term EDSS; both were significant predictors in a 'single predictor' model. Early EDSS change was a slightly stronger single predictor (R(2) 0.38, Wald χ(2) 42.65, p EDSS change in a 'combined predictor' model improved prediction (p = 0.036). Both early change on EDSS and T25FW predict long-term EDSS with comparable strength. Early change on T25FW adds significant independent information and improves the prediction model with early EDSS change only. Therefore we support the use of early T25FW examinations in future clinical trials in progressive MS.

  17. Mitigating the Long term Operating Extreme Load through Active Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina; Natarajan, Anand

    2014-01-01

    The parameters influencing the long term extreme operating design loads are identified through the implementation of a Design of Experiment (DOE) method. A function between the identified critical factors and the ultimate out-of-plane loads on the blade is determined. Variations in the initial bl...... for different values of the integral gain as resulting in rotor speed error and the rate of change of rotor speed. Based on the results a new load case for the simulation of extreme loads during normal operation is also presented....

  18. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Profiling - Predicting Long-Term Unemployment at the Individual Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Soukup

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Labour market policy encourages both the preventive and proactive approaches in order to avoid negative impacts. Unfortunately, a large number of evaluation studies show that active intervention is helpful only if it is targeted according to the prevailing situation and needs of claimants. The first step in the targeting process is to determine in advance which claimant has a significant probability of becoming long-term unemployed and just how high the risk is.
    This paper deals with the predicting of long-term unemployment at the individual level. In contrast with research carried out elsewhere, the paper stresses the theory behind the statistical model. As far as the Czech Republic is concerned it has been shown that a model computed using only data from the official unemployment register is correct in 78% of cases, i.e. 20 percentage points more than the result obtained by means of the constant or risk group approaches.

  20. Kesiapan Operator Seluler dalam Mengimplementasikan Teknologi Long Term Evolution (LTE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Ariyanti

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar kesiapan operator seluler dalam mengimplementasikan teknologi Long Term Evolution (LTE. Model penelitian dengan menggunakan mengadopsi teknik Net Readiness Framwork. Adapun kriteria pengukurannya terdiri dari Leadership, Governance, Competencies dan Technology. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan menyebarkan kuesioner kepada operator seluler di Indonesia dan melakukan wawancara kepada regulator. Kajian ini menggunakan teknik analisis data kuantitatif deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PT. Axis, PT. HCPT dan PT. Telkomsel mempunyai tingkat kesiapan LTE Visionary yang berarti perusahaan sangat antusias dalam perubahan dan lebih dahulu mengambil resiko untuk mengimplementasikan LTE dalam organisasinya yang merupakan bagian yang tak terpisahkan proses bisnis perusahaan. PT. Indosat dan PT. XL mempunyai nilai kesiapan LTE leader  yang berarti perusahaan mampu mengadaptasi perubahan dan menginspirasi organsiasi lain dalam penerapan LTE. PT. Smartfren pada tingkat kesiapan LTE savvy yang berarti operator seluler memahami sebab dan efek dari perubahan dari munculnya LTE terhadap organisasi, namun belum melakukan adaptasi.

  1. Long-term time series prediction using OP-ELM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigorievskiy, Alexander; Miche, Yoan; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Séverin, Eric; Lendasse, Amaury

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, an Optimally Pruned Extreme Learning Machine (OP-ELM) is applied to the problem of long-term time series prediction. Three known strategies for the long-term time series prediction i.e. Recursive, Direct and DirRec are considered in combination with OP-ELM and compared with a baseline linear least squares model and Least-Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM). Among these three strategies DirRec is the most time consuming and its usage with nonlinear models like LS-SVM, where several hyperparameters need to be adjusted, leads to relatively heavy computations. It is shown that OP-ELM, being also a nonlinear model, allows reasonable computational time for the DirRec strategy. In all our experiments, except one, OP-ELM with DirRec strategy outperforms the linear model with any strategy. In contrast to the proposed algorithm, LS-SVM behaves unstably without variable selection. It is also shown that there is no superior strategy for OP-ELM: any of three can be the best. In addition, the prediction accuracy of an ensemble of OP-ELM is studied and it is shown that averaging predictions of the ensemble can improve the accuracy (Mean Square Error) dramatically. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. R&D of MCFC matrix for long term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nishimura, Takashi; Fujita, Yoji; Urushibata, Hiroaki; Sasaki, Akira [Mitsubishi Electric Corp., Hyogo (Japan)

    1996-12-31

    Long term operation is an essential subject in the commercialization of the Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC). Material stability is important for the development of the MCFC. particularly for long term operation. In this paper, the specification and the stabilization of MCFC matrix arc investigated, with the aim of producing 40000 hours of operation. It is common knowledge that matrix thickness has a large influence on shorting time, as shorting is caused by the dissolution of the nickel oxide cathodes. Therefore, the optimum thickness of a matrix designed for 40000 hours operation without the nickel shorting was sought. The influences of different electrolytes and matrix specifications on the shorting time were measured with accelerated cell tests. The internal resistance of the matrix was also estimated. Gamma( {gamma} )-lithium aluminate (LiAlO{sub 2}) powder with a sub-micron particle diameter is commonly used for a raw material of matrix to retain molten carbonate electrolytes. This is because most researchers found that {gamma}-LiA1O{sub 2} was the most stable material in the MCFC environment among the three allotropic forms alpha ( {alpha} ), beta ( {beta} ), and {gamma}. However. two problems with the stability of {gamma} -LiAlO{sub 2} are being vigorously discussed. especially in Japan: particle growth causes decreasing electrolyte retention, and the transformation of {gamma} to {alpha}. This transformation contradicts the accepted opinion that {gamma} is the most stable form. In this paper, the particle growth and the phase transformation of LiAlO{sub 2} are examined with post-test analyses. The influence of matrix degradation on cell performance is also considered.

  3. Predicting long-term bleeding after percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Praneet K; Chhatriwalla, Adnan K; Cohen, David J; Jang, Jae-Sik; Baweja, Paramdeep; Gosch, Kensey; Jones, Philip; Bach, Richard G; Arnold, Suzanne V; Spertus, John A

    2017-02-01

    To construct a model to predict long-term bleeding events following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Treatment with dual antiplatelet therapy following PCI involves balancing the benefits of preventing ischemic events with the risks of bleeding. There are no models to predict long-term bleeding events after PCI. We analyzed 1-year bleeding outcomes from 3,128 PCI procedures in the Patient Risk Information Services Manager (PRISM) observational study. Patient-reported bleeding events were categorized according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) definitions. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop a model predicting BARC ≥ 1 bleeding. BARC 0, 1, 2 or 3 bleeding was observed in 574 (18.4%); 2382 (76.2%); 114 (3.6%); and 58 (1.8%) patients, respectively. Compared to patients who had no bleeding, patients with BARC ≥ 1 bleeding were more often female (30 vs. 23%), Caucasian (94 vs. 83%), had a higher incidence of drug eluting stent (DES) implantation (83 vs. 76%) and warfarin therapy (7.4 vs. 3.9%), and a lower incidence of diabetes (31 vs. 45%; P-value bleeding events as well (c-statistic = 0.653). Bleeding is common in the first year after PCI, and can be predicted by pre-procedural patient characteristics and use of DES. Objective estimates of bleeding risk may help support shared decision-making with respect to stent selection and duration of antiplatelet therapy following PCI. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Long-term performance of motor-operated valves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scarbrough, T.G.

    1996-12-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires that motor-operated valves (MOVs) important to safety be designed, fabricated, erected, and tested to quality standards commensurate with the importance of the safety functions to be performed. Despite these requirements, operating experience and research revealed problems with the performance of MOVs in operating nuclear power plants. In response to the concerns about MOV performance, the NRC issued Generic Letter (GL) 89-10, {open_quotes}Safety-Related Motor-Operated Valve Testing and Surveillance,{close_quotes} and its supplements. Most licensees have completed the aspects of their GL 89-10 programs associated with the review of MOV design bases, verification of MOV switch settings initially, testing of MOVs under design-basis conditions where practicable, and improvement of evaluations of MOV failures and necessary corrective action. Licensees are establishing processes to ensure that the long-term aspects of their MOV programs, such as periodic verification of MOV capability and the trending of MOV problems, are maintained. The NRC staff is developing a generic letter to address periodic verification of MOV design-basis capability.

  5. Neural systems predicting long-term outcome in dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeft, Fumiko; McCandliss, Bruce D; Black, Jessica M; Gantman, Alexander; Zakerani, Nahal; Hulme, Charles; Lyytinen, Heikki; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Glover, Gary H; Reiss, Allan L; Gabrieli, John D E

    2011-01-04

    Individuals with developmental dyslexia vary in their ability to improve reading skills, but the brain basis for improvement remains largely unknown. We performed a prospective, longitudinal study over 2.5 y in children with dyslexia (n = 25) or without dyslexia (n = 20) to discover whether initial behavioral or brain measures, including functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), can predict future long-term reading gains in dyslexia. No behavioral measure, including widely used and standardized reading and language tests, reliably predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Greater right prefrontal activation during a reading task that demanded phonological awareness and right superior longitudinal fasciculus (including arcuate fasciculus) white-matter organization significantly predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of these two brain measures, using linear support vector machine (SVM) and cross-validation, predicted significantly above chance (72% accuracy) which particular child would or would not improve reading skills (behavioral measures were at chance). MVPA of whole-brain activation pattern during phonological processing predicted which children with dyslexia would improve reading skills 2.5 y later with >90% accuracy. These findings identify right prefrontal brain mechanisms that may be critical for reading improvement in dyslexia and that may differ from typical reading development. Brain measures that predict future behavioral outcomes (neuroprognosis) may be more accurate, in some cases, than available behavioral measures.

  6. Neural systems predicting long-term outcome in dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeft, Fumiko; McCandliss, Bruce D.; Black, Jessica M.; Gantman, Alexander; Zakerani, Nahal; Hulme, Charles; Lyytinen, Heikki; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Glover, Gary H.; Reiss, Allan L.; Gabrieli, John D. E.

    2010-01-01

    Individuals with developmental dyslexia vary in their ability to improve reading skills, but the brain basis for improvement remains largely unknown. We performed a prospective, longitudinal study over 2.5 y in children with dyslexia (n = 25) or without dyslexia (n = 20) to discover whether initial behavioral or brain measures, including functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), can predict future long-term reading gains in dyslexia. No behavioral measure, including widely used and standardized reading and language tests, reliably predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Greater right prefrontal activation during a reading task that demanded phonological awareness and right superior longitudinal fasciculus (including arcuate fasciculus) white-matter organization significantly predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of these two brain measures, using linear support vector machine (SVM) and cross-validation, predicted significantly above chance (72% accuracy) which particular child would or would not improve reading skills (behavioral measures were at chance). MVPA of whole-brain activation pattern during phonological processing predicted which children with dyslexia would improve reading skills 2.5 y later with >90% accuracy. These findings identify right prefrontal brain mechanisms that may be critical for reading improvement in dyslexia and that may differ from typical reading development. Brain measures that predict future behavioral outcomes (neuroprognosis) may be more accurate, in some cases, than available behavioral measures. PMID:21173250

  7. Preparing the ground for an operational handling of long-term emissions in LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakas, Ioannis; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard;

    2015-01-01

    hindering the standardisation of a methodology to account for potential impacts from long-term metal emissions, and to describe the characteristics of a robust framework for an operational impact assessment methodology.In order to demonstrate the issues around potential impacts from long-term emissions...... in LCA and derive a scientific basis for developing an adequate LCA methodology to address these impacts, a two-part review on long-term metal emissions is performed that (a) identifies a suitable time-dependent life cycle inventory (LCI) while underlining the problems in existing emission prediction......-term emissions, it is necessary to (i) represent future potential impacts more accurately by estimating time-dependent characterisation factors (CFs) corresponding to changing environmental conditions, (ii) develop more robust estimations by addressing uncertainty and (iii) refer to actual potential impacts...

  8. Long-Term MRI Findings in Operated Rotator Cuff Tear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kyroelae, K.; Niemitukia, L.; Jaroma, H.; Vaeaetaeinen, U. [Kuopio Univ. Hospital (Finland). Dept. of Orthopaedics and Traumatology

    2004-08-01

    Purpose: To describe magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings at long-term follow-up after rotator cuff (RC) tear using standard MRI sequences without fat saturation. Material and Methods: Twenty-eight patients aged 55.8{+-}7.6 underwent MRI examination 4.6{+-}2.1 years after surgery for RC tear. Standard sequences in oblique coronal, oblique sagittal, and axial planes were obtained. The RC, including re-tears and tendon degeneration, was independently evaluated by two observers. Thickness of the supraspinatus tendon and narrowing of the subacromial space were measured. The clinical outcome was evaluated with the Constant score and compared with the MRI findings. Results: The RC tear was traumatic in 18 (64%) patients and degenerative in 10 (36%). At follow-up, 11 (39%) had normal RC tendons with good clinical outcome. Four (14%) patients had painful tendinosis without RC tear. A full-thickness RC tear was found in 7 (25%) patients and a partial tear in 6 (21%). In one patient with a full-thickness tear, and in two with partial tear, tendinosis was found in another of the RC tendons. The subacromial space was narrowed in 13 (46%) of the patients. A narrowing of the subacromial space correlated with re-tear (P<0.05). Conclusions: The RC may be evaluated with standard MRI sequences without fat saturation at long-term follow-up. A normal appearance of the RC is correlated with good clinical outcome, while re-tear and tendinosis are associated with pain.

  9. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-10-02

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  10. Reduced Right Ventricular Function Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Re-Hospitalization after Cardiac Surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leela K Lella

    Full Text Available The significance of right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF, independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, following isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG and valve procedures remains unknown. The aim of this study is to examine the significance of abnormal RVEF by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR, independent of LVEF in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve surgery.From 2007 to 2009, 109 consecutive patients (mean age, 66 years; 38% female were referred for pre-operative CMR. Abnormal RVEF and LVEF were considered 30 days outcomes included, cardiac re-hospitalization, worsening congestive heart failure and mortality. Mean clinical follow up was 14 months.Forty-eight patients had reduced RVEF (mean 25% and 61 patients had normal RVEF (mean 50% (p<0.001. Fifty-four patients had reduced LVEF (mean 30% and 55 patients had normal LVEF (mean 59% (p<0.001. Patients with reduced RVEF had a higher incidence of long-term cardiac re-hospitalization vs. patients with normal RVEF (31% vs.13%, p<0.05. Abnormal RVEF was a predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization (HR 3.01 [CI 1.5-7.9], p<0.03. Reduced LVEF did not influence long-term cardiac re-hospitalization.Abnormal RVEF is a stronger predictor for long-term cardiac re-hospitalization than abnormal LVEF in patients undergoing isolated CABG and valve procedures.

  11. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  12. Can immediate postoperative random growth hormone levels predict long-term cure in patients with acromegaly?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pinaki Dutta

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: Early postoperative GH values may be used to predict long-term cure. A value of ≤1.5 ng/ml at 6 h following surgery may predict long-term cure in two-thirds of the patients with acromegaly who undergo TSS.

  13. The prediction of long term viscoelastic properties of fiber reinforced plastics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinson, H. F.; Dillard, D. A.

    1982-01-01

    A method for the experimental and analytical accelerated characterization of long term viscoelastic properties is presented. The time-temperature-stress superposition principle (TTSSP) is shown to serve as the basis for determining long term compliance data from short term creep test results. Nonlinear viscoelastic theories are discussed to provide the framework for the mathematically modeling of such a process. A time dependent Tsai-Hill-Zhurkov failure theory is used to determine long term failure properties from short term data. Compliance and failure data are incorporated in an incremental lamination theory to make long term laminate predictions. Comparisons are made between theory and experiment.

  14. Predicting long-term forest development following hemlock mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer C. Jenkins; Charles D. Canham; Paul K. Barten

    2000-01-01

    The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand.), an introduced pest specializing on eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), threatens to cause widespread hemlock mortality in New England forests. In this study, we used a stem-based model of forest dynamics (SORTIE) to predict forest development in a northeastern forest...

  15. LONG TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION USING WAVELET COEFFICIENTS AND SOFT COMPUTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manju Khanna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In the past researches, scholars have carried out short-term prediction for wind speed. The present work deals with long-term wind speed prediction, required for hybrid power generation design and contract planning. As the total database is quite large for long-term prediction, feature extraction of data by application of Lifting wavelet coefficients is exploited, along with soft computing techniques for time series data, which is scholastic in nature.

  16. LONG TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION USING WAVELET COEFFICIENTS AND SOFT COMPUTING

    OpenAIRE

    Manju Khanna; Srinath, N. K; K. Mendiratta

    2016-01-01

    In the past researches, scholars have carried out short-term prediction for wind speed. The present work deals with long-term wind speed prediction, required for hybrid power generation design and contract planning. As the total database is quite large for long-term prediction, feature extraction of data by application of Lifting wavelet coefficients is exploited, along with soft computing techniques for time series data, which is scholastic in nature.

  17. Nonparametric long term prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields

    OpenAIRE

    M Scholz; Sperlich, S.; Nielsen, J. P.

    2016-01-01

    Recent empirical approaches in forecasting equity returns or premiums found that dynamic interactions among the stock and bond are relevant for long term pension products. Automatic procedures to upgrade or downgrade risk exposure could potentially improve long term performance for such products. The risk and return of bonds is more easy to predict than the risk and return of stocks. This and the well known stock-bond correlation motivates the inclusion of the current bond yield in a model fo...

  18. Chronic kidney disease predicts long-term mortality after major lower extremity amputation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Assi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite low peri-operative mortality after major lower extremity amputation, long-term mortality remains substantial. Metabolic syndrome is increasing in incidence and prevalence at an alarming rate in the USA. Aim: This study was to determine whether metabolic syndrome predicts outcome after major lower extremity amputation. Patients and Methods: A retrospective review of charts between July 2005 and June 2010. Results: Fifty-four patients underwent a total of 60 major lower extremity amputations. Sixty percent underwent below-knee amputation and 40% underwent above-knee amputation. The 30-day mortality was 7% with no difference in level (below-knee amputation, 8%; above-knee amputation, 4%; P = 0.53. The mean follow-up time was 39.7 months. The 5-year survival was 54% in the whole group, and was independent of level of amputation (P = 0.24 or urgency of the procedure (P = 0.51. Survival was significantly decreased by the presence of underlying chronic kidney disease (P = 0.04 but not by other comorbidities (history of myocardial infarction, P = 0.79; metabolic syndrome, P = 0.64; diabetes mellitus, P = 0.56. Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome is not associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes after lower extremity amputation. However, patients with chronic kidney disease constitute a sub-group of patients at higher risk of postoperative long-term mortality and may be a group to target for intervention.

  19. Short- versus long-term prediction of dementia among subjects with low and high educational levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chary, Emilie; Amieva, Hélène; Pérès, Karine; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Dartigues, Jean-François; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène

    2013-09-01

    Using simple measures of cognition and disability in a prospective community-living cohort of normal elderly persons, the main objectives of our study were to distinguish short- and long-term predictors for dementia according to educational level and to propose a tool for early detection of subjects at high risk of dementia. Data derived from the French cohort study Paquid (Personnes Agées QUID), which included 3777 subjects, older than 65 years of age, who were followed for a 20-year period. The risk of dementia at 3 years and 10 years was estimated by logistic regression for repeated measures combining data from all the 3- and 10-year windows throughout the follow-up. Predictors included disability assessed by the number of dependent items among four instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), four neuropsychological tests, five Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) subtests, and four items of subjective memory complaints. Of the 2882 included subjects, the number of IADLs remained a predictor of short- and long-term conversion to dementia for those with low educational level (combined with only one cognitive test) whereas the best predictors for more educated subjects combined subjective memory complaints and memory and executive function tests. The episodic memory subtest was the only predictive MMSE subtest. In the high-education-level group, the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the selected models were 0.85 for 3-year prediction and 0.78 for 10-year prediction. Early predictors of dementia are different according to educational level. Among subjects reaching the secondary school level, early detection of those at high risk of dementia is possible with good predictive performance, with a few simple objective and subjective cognitive evaluations. Copyright © 2013 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Climate change forecasts, long-term spatio-temporal prediction and the resilience of dry ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafran-Natan, Rakefet; Svoray, Tal; Avi, Perevolotsky

    2010-05-01

    Primary production is an important indicator to climatic changes in drylands, while reduction in productivity has many consequences on ecosystem functioning. We suggest that the response of dry ecosystems to climate change should lead to a change in spatial patterns of grasses without a substantial change in ecosystem resilience. We used field data and a recently published spatio-temporally explicit model to study factors affecting long-term variation in primary production in two dry ecosystems: semi-arid (SAE) and Mediterranean (DME) dominated by annual vegetation. The model was operated in both patch and landscape scales and was executed along 30 years (1979-2008) at SAE and along 21 years (1986-1990; 1993-2008) at DME. Model predictions were validated against samples that were harvested in each site at the end of the growing season, over 15 seasons (1994-2008) at SAE (0.63

  1. Ionospheric modeling for short- and long-term predictions of F region parameters over Indian zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabas, R. S.; Sharma, Kavita; Das, Rupesh M.; Sethi, N. K.; Pillai, K. G. M.; Mishra, A. K.

    2008-03-01

    The equatorial and low latitudinal F region ionosphere is highly dynamic and unpredictable because of various geophysical mechanisms operating therein. In the present study, two HF prediction models for short and long term are developed for equatorial and low-latitude F region ionosphere. In the first approach, multiple regression analysis (MRA) for the dependence of F region parameters, namely, foF2 and M(3000)F2, on solar 2800 MHz flux (F10) and geomagnetic index Ap are generated, and in the second one, second-degree (SD) coefficients are generated, both by fitting monthly median foF2 and M(3000)F2 with corresponding 12 monthly mean sunspot numbers (R12) using data over three solar cycles. For MRA, daily foF2 and M(3000)F2 values for each hour obtained from Delhi (28.6°N, 77.1°E) digital ionosonde for about half a solar cycle are used. MRA coefficients for foF2 and M(3000)F2 are obtained for every month over 2400 UT times using daily F10 and Ap values separately for quiet (Ap 25) periods. Similarly, SD coefficients are obtained each month at all local times for all the 14 stations covering a geographic latitude range from about 0°N to 45°N. In this way, once appropriate coefficients for each hour for all the 12 months are obtained, they are used by the computer-based MRA and SD models to predict ionospheric hourly foF2 and hmF2 values for given inputs such as month, F10, Ap, and R12, as the case may be. Predicted model values of foF2 and hmF2, calculated on short- and long-term basis, are then compared with the observed data over Delhi and also with those obtained using international reference ionosphere (IRI)-2001 model. From our comparative studies it is observed that MRA and SD models show better agreement with observations compared to the IRI model for both long- and short-term basis and among the two the MRA model provides best agreement with the observed ones, even during the magnetic storm periods. The SD model, on the other hand, which is based on

  2. The performance of the Barrel CRID at the SLD: Long-term operational experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abe, K. [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan); Ashford, V.; Aston, D. [Stanford Univ., CA (US). Stanford Linear Accelerator Center] [and others

    1997-11-01

    The Barrel CRID detector has been operating successfully at SLD for the past 7 years. It is an important tool for SLD physics analyses. The authors report results based on long term operational experience of a number of important quantities such as the Cherenkov quality factor, N{sub o}, of the device, fluid transparency, electron lifetime, single electron detection efficiency, anode wire aging, TMAE purity, long term stability of the gas refraction index, liquid radiator transparency, Cherenkov angle resolution and the number of photoelectrons observed per ring.

  3. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  4. The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

    1986-01-01

    The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

  5. LONG TERM OPERATION ISSUES FOR ELECTRICAL CABLE SYSTEMS IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fifield, Dr Leonard S [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL); Duckworth, Robert C [ORNL; Glass III, Dr. Samuel W. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

    2016-01-01

    conditions, but extension of behavior to long term degradation under more mild conditions, such as those experienced by most installed cables in nuclear power plants, is complicated by the fact that different degradation mechanisms may be involved in extreme and mild scenarios. The discrepancy in predicted results from short term, more extreme exposure and actual results from longer term, more mild exposures can be counter intuitive. For instance, due to the attenuation of oxidation penetration in material samples rapidly aged through exposure to high temperatures, the bulk of the samples may be artificially protected from thermal aging. In another example, simultaneous exposure of cable insulation material to heat and radiation may actually lead to less damage at higher temperatures than may be observed at lower temperatures. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability program of the United States (US) Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Nuclear Energy is funding research to increase the predictive understanding of electrical cable material aging and degradation in existing nuclear power plants in support of continued safe operation of plants beyond their initial license periods. This research includes the evaluation and development of methods to assess installed cable condition.

  6. Prediction of long-term durability of Vasco Da Gama Bridge in Lisbon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houdusse, O.; Hornain, H.; Martinet, G. [LERM, Arles (France)

    2000-07-01

    Development of a predictive model to improve understanding of the evolution of concentration profiles of different aggressive ions in the pore solution and solid phase and thus to be able to predict the long-term durability of cement-based materials, is described. The model was applied to the concrete of the Vasco da Gama Bridge built in the Tagus Bay in Lisbon, to predict service life, defined as the onset of corrosion. Taking into account the critical concentration of chloride at the level of reinforcement. various computerized simulations tend to confirm the validity of the model used, as well as the appropriateness of the concrete mix design and the expected service life of 120 years, without major structural maintenance operations. Further confirmation of the model will be forthcoming over the next thirty years of supervision period (annual studies during the first five years). The model can be used also to predict other degradation mechanisms such as sulfate attack and carbonation. 18 refs., 6 tabs., 9 figs.

  7. The Long-Term Operating Performance of European Mergers and Acquisitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martynova, M.; Oosting, S.; Renneboog, L.D.R.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract: We investigate the long-term profitability of corporate takeovers of which both the acquiring and target companies are from Continental Europe or the UK. We employ four different measures of operating performance that allow us to overcome a number of measurement limitations of the previous

  8. Role of Proteasome-Dependent Protein Degradation in Long-Term Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Lisa C.; Gardner, Jacob S.; Gandour, Catherine E.; Krishnan, Harini C.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated the in vivo role of protein degradation during intermediate (ITM) and long-term memory (LTM) in "Aplysia" using an operant learning paradigm. The proteasome inhibitor MG-132 inhibited the induction and molecular consolidation of LTM with no effect on ITM. Remarkably, maintenance of steady-state protein levels through…

  9. PKG-Mediated MAPK Signaling Is Necessary for Long-Term Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Maximilian; Green, Charity L.; Eskin, Arnold; Lyons, Lisa C.

    2011-01-01

    Signaling pathways necessary for memory formation, such as the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway, appear highly conserved across species and paradigms. Learning that food is inedible (LFI) represents a robust form of associative, operant learning that induces short- (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) in "Aplysia." We investigated the…

  10. Role of Proteasome-Dependent Protein Degradation in Long-Term Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Lisa C.; Gardner, Jacob S.; Gandour, Catherine E.; Krishnan, Harini C.

    2017-01-01

    We investigated the in vivo role of protein degradation during intermediate (ITM) and long-term memory (LTM) in "Aplysia" using an operant learning paradigm. The proteasome inhibitor MG-132 inhibited the induction and molecular consolidation of LTM with no effect on ITM. Remarkably, maintenance of steady-state protein levels through…

  11. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2016-11-10

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  12. Short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery predict program sustainability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. Cramm (Jane); A.P. Nieboer (Anna)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstractEmpirical evidence on sustainability of programs that improve the quality of care delivery over time is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to identify the predictive role of short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery on program sustainability. In this lon

  13. Rosetta Lander - Philae: Operations on 67P and attempts for Long Term Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulamec, Stephan; Biele, Jens; Cozzoni, Barbara; Delmas, Cedric; Fantinati, Cinzia; Geurts, Koen; Jansen, Sven; Jurado, Eric; Küchemann, Oliver; Lommatsch, Valentina; Maibaum, Michael; O'Rourke, Laurence

    2016-04-01

    Philae is a comet Lander, part of Rosetta which is a Cornerstone Mission of the ESA Horizon 2000 programme. Philae successfully landed on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko on November 12th, 2014 and performed a First Scientific Sequence, based on the energy stored in it's on board batteries. All ten instruments of the Philae payload have been operated at least once. Due to the fact that the final landing site (after several bounces) was poorly illuminated, Philae went into hibernation on November 15th, and the teams hoped for a wake-up at closer heliocentric distances. Signals from the Lander were indeed received on June 13th when 67P was at a distance of about 1.4 AU from the Sun. Housekeeping values showed that Philae had already been active earlier, but no RF contact with the mothership could be established. Seven more times, signals from Philae were received, the last ones on July 9th, 2015. Unfortunately, no reliable or predictable links could be achieved. The paper will give an overview of the activities with Philae after its hibernation, interpretation of the received housekeeping data and the various strategies to attempt more contacts and long term science measurements. Rosetta is an ESA mission with contributions from its member states and NASA. Rosetta's Philae Lander is provided by a consortium led by DLR, MPS, CNES and ASI with additional contributions from Hungary, UK, Finland, Ireland and Austria.

  14. The long-term effects of space weather on satellite operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Welling

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Integrated lifetime radiation damage may cause spacecraft to become more susceptible to operational anomalies by changing material characteristics of electronic components. This study demonstrates and quantifies the impact of these effects by examining the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC satellite anomaly database. Energetic particle data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES is used to construct the total lifetime particle exposure a satellite has received at the epoch of an anomaly. These values are compared to the satellite's chronological age and the average exposure per year (calculated over two solar cycles. The results show that many anomalies occur on satellites that have received a total lifetime high-energy particle exposure that is disproportionate to their age. In particular, 10.8% of all events occurred on satellites that received over two times more 20 to 40 MeV proton lifetime particle exposure than predicted using an average annual mean. This number inflates to 35.2% for 40 to 80 MeV protons and 33.7% for ≥2 MeV electrons. Overall, 73.5% of all anomalies occurred on a spacecraft that had experienced greater than two times the expected particle exposure for one of the eight particle populations used in this study. Simplistically, this means that the long term radiation background exposure matters, and that if the background radiation is elevated during the satellite's lifetime, the satellite is likely to experience more anomalies than satellites that have not been exposed to the elevated environment.

  15. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  16. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  17. Self-discrepancy: Long-term test-retest reliability and test-criterion predictive validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Neill; Bryan, Brandon C; Thrash, Todd M

    2016-01-01

    Long-term test-retest reliability and predictive test-criterion evidence of validity of scores on measures of the real-ideal self-discrepancy and of the real-ought self-discrepancy were tested over periods of 1 year and 3 years. A sample of 184 undergraduates completed at 2 time points 1 year apart 3 instruments that each measure the 2 self-discrepancies: the idiographic Self-Concept Questionnaire-Personal Constructs, the nonidiographic Self-Concept Questionnaire-Conventional Constructs, and the content-free Abstract Measures. A separate sample of 141 undergraduates completed the instruments 3 years apart. Both samples completed 3 depression instruments and 3 anxiety instruments at the second time point. Results of analyses using latent variables modeled with 3 observed variables showed substantial statistically significant test-retest reliabilities and significant test-criterion prediction of anxiety and depression on the real-ideal and real-ought discrepancy measures over both time periods. Results for the observed variables showed significant 1-year and 3-year reliabilities for scores on all self-discrepancy measures, as well as significant 1-year and 3-year predictive validity for scores on all self-discrepancy measures, except the abstract measure of real-ought discrepancy in predicting scores on all depression measures and on at least 1 anxiety measure. The findings support very strong long-term stabilities of the self-discrepancy personality constructs and their long-term associations with anxiety and depression.

  18. Long-Term Prediction of Severe Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Marie Moth; Færch, Louise; Thorsteinsson, Birger

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prediction of risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH) in patients with type 1 diabetes is important to prevent future episodes, but it is unknown if it is possible to predict the long-term risk of SH. The aim of the study is to assess if long-term prediction of SH is possible in type 1...... diabetes. METHODS: A follow-up study was performed with 98 patients with type 1 diabetes. At baseline and at follow-up, the patients filled in a questionnaire about diabetes history and complications, number of SH in the preceding year and state of awareness, and HbA1c and C-peptide levels were measured......-up. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term prediction of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes was not possible, although baseline hypoglycemia unawareness tended to remain a predictor for risk of SH at follow-up. Therefore, it is important repeatedly to assess the different risk factors of SH to determine the actual risk....

  19. Important meteorological variables for statistical long-term air quality prediction in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Libo; Liu, Yongqiang; Zhao, Fengjun

    2017-09-01

    Weather is an important factor for air quality. While there have been increasing attentions to long-term (monthly and seasonal) air pollution such as regional hazes from land-clearing fires during El Niño, the weather-air quality relationships are much less understood at long-term than short-term (daily and weekly) scales. This study is aimed to fill this gap through analyzing correlations between meteorological variables and air quality at various timescales. A regional correlation scale was defined to measure the longest time with significant correlations at a substantial large number of sites. The air quality index (API) and five meteorological variables during 2001-2012 at 40 eastern China sites were used. The results indicate that the API is correlated to precipitation negatively and air temperature positively across eastern China, and to wind, relative humidity and air pressure with spatially varied signs. The major areas with significant correlations vary with meteorological variables. The correlations are significant not only at short-term but also at long-term scales, and the important variables are different between the two types of scales. The concurrent regional correlation scales reach seasonal at p correlations are much smaller in magnitude than the concurrent correlations and their regional correction scales are at long term only for wind speed and relative humidity. It is concluded that wind speed should be considered as a primary predictor for statistical prediction of long-term air quality in a large region over eastern China. Relative humidity and temperature are also useful predictors but at less significant levels.

  20. Long-term prediction of reading accuracy and speed: The importance of paired-associate learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Mads; Asmussen, Vibeke; Juul, Holger;

    of reading comprehension and isolated sight word reading accuracy and speed. Results: PAL predicted unique variance in sight word accuracy, but not speed. Furthermore, PAL was indirectly linked to reading comprehension through sight word accuracy. RAN correlated with both accuracy and speed......, and these effects translated into indirect effects on reading comprehension. Phonological awareness and letter knowledge did not contribute uniquely to Grade 5 reading after control for PAL and RAN. Conclusions: PAL and RAN predict separate aspects of sight word reading: accuracy and speed. Both aspects appear...... relevant for reading comprehension. We discuss the lack of long-term prediction from phonological awareness and letter knowledge....

  1. Long term reliability and machine operation diagnosis with fiber optic sensors at large turbine generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosselmann, T.; Strack, S.; Villnow, M.; Weidner, J. R.; Willsch, M.

    2013-05-01

    The increasing quantity of renewable energy in electric power generation leads to a higher flexibility in the operation of conventional power plants. The turbo generator has to face the influence of frequent start-stop-operation on thermal movement and vibration of the stator end windings. Large indirect cooled turbo generators have been equipped with FBG strain and temperature sensors to monitor the influence of peak load operation. Fiber optic accelerometers measure the vibration of the end windings at several turbine generators since many years of operation. The long term reliability of fiber optic vibration, temperature and strain sensors has been successfully proved during years of online operation. The analysis of these data in correlation to significant operation parameter lead to important diagnostic information.

  2. Young patients with colorectal cancer have poor survival in the first twenty months after operation and predictable survival in the medium and long-term: Analysis of survival and prognostic markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wickramarachchi RE

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives This study compares clinico-pathological features in young (50 years with colorectal cancer, survival in the young and the influence of pre-operative clinical and histological factors on survival. Materials and methods A twelve year prospective database of colorectal cancer was analysed. Fifty-three young patients were compared with forty seven consecutive older patients over fifty years old. An analysis of survival was undertaken in young patients using Kaplan Meier graphs, non parametric methods, Cox's Proportional Hazard Ratios and Weibull Hazard models. Results Young patients comprised 13.4 percent of 397 with colorectal cancer. Duration of symptoms and presentation in the young was similar to older patients (median, range; young patients; 6 months, 2 weeks to 2 years, older patients; 4 months, 4 weeks to 3 years, p > 0.05. In both groups, the majority presented without bowel obstruction (young - 81%, older - 94%. Cancer proximal to the splenic flexure was present more in young than in older patients. Synchronous cancers were found exclusively in the young. Mucinous tumours were seen in 16% of young and 4% of older patients (p Conclusion If patients, who are less than 40 years old with colorectal cancer, survive twenty months after operation, the prognosis improves and their survival becomes predictable.

  3. Baseline Quality of Life Factors Predict Long Term Survival after Elective Resection for Colorectal Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhiram Sharma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Studies have shown an association between baseline quality of life (Qol and survival in advanced cancers. The aim of this study was to investigate their predictive value in long term survival after elective colorectal cancer resection. Methods. A consecutive series of patients undergoing elective colorectal cancer surgery for nonmetastatic disease were recruited in 2003/04. Patients completed standardized quality of life questionnaires (HADS, FACTC, MRS, and PANAS prior to and 6 weeks after surgery. Univariate (log-rank test and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazards were performed to predict long term survival. Results. Ninety-seven patients met the inclusion criteria. Sixty-five (67% were male and the median age of the group was 70 years. Forty-six (47.5% patients had died and the mean survival was 1,741 days (median 2159, range 9–2923 days. Preoperative mood rating scale and functional assessment of cancer therapy-colorectal FACT C emotional well-being and postoperative FACT C additional concerns were independent predictors of long term survival. Conclusion. Incorporating psychosocial measures in preoperative assessment of cancer patients could help to identify patients who require assessment with a view to implementing psychosocial interventions. These active interventions to maximize mood and well-being should form an integral part of multidisciplinary treatment in these patients.

  4. Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fordham, Damien A.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Alroy, John; Saltré, Frédérik; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Brook, Barry W.

    2016-10-01

    Uses of long-term ecological proxies in strategies for mitigating future biodiversity loss are too limited in scope. Recent advances in geochronological dating, palaeoclimate reconstructions and molecular techniques for inferring population dynamics offer exciting new prospects for using retrospective knowledge to better forecast and manage ecological outcomes in the face of global change. Opportunities include using fossils, genes and computational models to identify ecological traits that caused species to be differentially prone to regional and range-wide extinction, test if threatened-species assessment approaches work and locate habitats that support stable ecosystems in the face of shifting climates. These long-term retrospective analyses will improve efforts to predict the likely effects of future climate and other environmental change on biodiversity, and target conservation management resources most effectively.

  5. Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A; Gueymard, Christian A; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-08-10

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

  6. Verification of geomechanical integrity and prediction of long-term mineral trapping for the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempka, Thomas; De Lucia, Marco; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Static and dynamic numerical modelling generally accompany the entire CO2 storage site life cycle. Thereto, it is required to match the employed models with field observations on a regular basis in order to predict future site behaviour. We investigated the coupled processes at the Ketzin CO2 storage pilot site [1] using a model coupling concept focusing on the temporal relevance of processes involved (hydraulic, chemical and mechanical) at given time-scales (site operation, abandonment and long-term stabilization). For that purpose, long-term dynamic multi-phase flow simulations [2], [3] established the basis for all simulations discussed in the following. Hereby, pressure changes resulting in geomechanical effects are largest during site operation, whereas geochemical reactions are governed by slow kinetics resulting in a long-term stabilization. To account for mechanical integrity, which may be mainly affected during site operation, we incorporated a regional-scale coupled hydro-mechanical model. Our simulation results show maximum ground surface displacements of about 4 mm, whereas shear and tensile failure are not observed. Consequently, the CO2 storage operation at the Ketzin pilot site does not compromise reservoir, caprock and fault integrity. Chemical processes responsible for mineral trapping are expected to mainly occur during long-term stabilization at the Ketzin pilot site [4]. Hence, our previous assessment [3] was extended by integrating two long-term mineral trapping scenarios. Thereby, mineral trapping contributes to the trapping mechanisms with 11.7 % after 16,000 years of simulation in our conservative and with 30.9 % in our maximum reactivity scenarios. Dynamic flow simulations indicate that only 0.2 % of the CO2 injected (about 67,270 t CO2 in total) is in gaseous state, but structurally trapped after 16,000 years. Depending on the studied long-term scenario, CO2 dissolution is the dominating trapping mechanism with 68.9 % and 88

  7. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days' AQI prediction. PMID:27597861

  8. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

  9. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoping; Zhang, Zhongxia; Zhang, Zhongqiu; Sun, Liren; Xu, Cui; Yu, Li

    2016-01-01

    The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day's Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300) the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3-7 days' AQI prediction.

  10. Prediction of the long-term creep behaviour of hydroxyapatite-filled polyethylmethacrylate bone cements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, J C; Venditti, Nicholas P

    2007-09-01

    The creep behaviour of bone cements based on polyethylmethacrylate, with and without addition of hydroxyapatite filler has been investigated, in order to determine the effect of hydroxyapatite filling and to investigate methods of predicting the long-term creep behaviour from short-term tests. The materials were produced under laboratory conditions and tested in tension in Ringer's solution, as the study was intended to investigate the inherent materials behaviour rather than to simulate realistic conditions. The effects of adding hydroxyapatite were to increase the short-term stiffness and more significantly to decrease the creep rate. Short-term creep tests of up to 10(6) s were conducted at various temperatures, stresses and ageing states. These were then used to investigate various methods of extrapolation to long-term behaviour. The use of time-temperature superposition was found to be useful, though it takes no account of ongoing physical ageing and so gives a significant overestimate of long-term creep strains. Stress-time superposition was less useful and also excludes ageing effects. The use of 'effective time' theory was more successful, but requires a large number of short-term tests. The most effective method was that of the 'integrated time' approach, which required fewer tests yet still gave good correlations with longer-term data.

  11. The MITOS system predicts long-term survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramacere, Irene; Dalla Bella, Eleonora; Chiò, Adriano; Mora, Gabriele; Filippini, Graziella; Lauria, Giuseppe

    2015-11-01

    The choice of adequate proxy for long-term survival, the ultimate outcome in randomised clinical trials (RCT) assessing disease-modifying treatments for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), is a key issue. The intrinsic limitations of the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R), including non-linearity, multidimensionality and floor-effect, have emerged and its usefulness argued. The ALS Milano-Torino staging (ALS-MITOS) system was proposed as a novel tool to measure the progression of ALS and overcome these limitations. This study was performed to validate the ALS-MITOS as a 6-month proxy of survival in 200 ALS patients followed up to 18 months. Analyses were performed on data from the recombinant human erythropoietin RCT that failed to demonstrate differences between groups for both primary and secondary outcomes. The ALS-MITOS system is composed of four key domains included in the ALSFRS-R scale (walking/self-care, swallowing, communicating and breathing), each with a threshold reflecting the loss of function in the specific ALSFRS-R subscores. Sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curves of the ALS-MITOS system stages and ALSFRS-R decline at 6 months were calculated and compared with the primary outcome (survival, tracheotomy or >23-hour non-invasive ventilation) at 12 and 18 months Predicted probabilities of the ALS-MITO system at 6 months for any event at 12 and 18 months were computed through logistic regression models. Disease progression from baseline to 6 months as defined by the ALS-MITOS system predicted death, tracheotomy or >23-hour non-invasive ventilation at 12 months with 82% sensitivity (95% CI 71% to 93%, n=37/45) and 63% specificity (95% CI 55% to 71%, n=92/146), and at 18 months with 71% sensitivity (95% CI 61% to 82%, n=50/70) and 68% specificity (95% CI 60% to 77%, n=76/111). The analysis of ALS-MITOS and ALSFRS-R progression at 6-month follow-up showed that the best cut-off to

  12. Simultaneous modelling of operative mortality and long-term survival after coronary artery bypass surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghahramani, M; Dean, C B; Spinelli, J J

    2001-07-15

    Typical analyses of lifetime data treat the time to death or failure as the response variable and use a variety of modelling strategies such as proportional hazards or fully parametric, to investigate the relationship between the response and covariates. In certain circumstances it may be more natural to view the distribution of the response variable as consisting of two or more parts since the survival curve appears segmented. This article addresses such a scenario and we propose a model for simultaneously investigating the effects of covariates over the two segments. The model is an analogue of that proposed by Lambert for zero-inflated Poisson regression. The application is central to the model development and is concerned with survival after coronary artery bypass surgery. Here operative mortality, defined as death within 30 days after surgery, and long-term mortality, are viewed as distinct outcomes. For the application considered, the survivor function displays much steeper descent during the first 30 days after surgery, that is, for operative mortality, than after this period. An investigation of the effects of covariates on operative and long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery illustrates the usefulness of the proposed model.

  13. Long-Term Sunspot Number Prediction based on EMD Analysis and AR Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tong Xu; Jian Wu; Zhen-Sen Wu; Qiang Li

    2008-01-01

    The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Auto-Regressive model (AR) are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction: different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.

  14. Near and long-term load prediction using radial basis function networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hancock, M.F. [Rollins College, Winter Park, FL (United States)

    1995-12-31

    A number of researchers have investigated the application of multi-layer perceptrons (MLP`s), a variety of neural network, to the problem of short-term load forecasting for electric utilities (e.g., Rahman & Hazin, IEEE Trans. Power Systems, May 1993). {open_quotes}Short-term{close_quotes} in this context typically means {open_quotes}next day{close_quotes}. These forecasts have been based upon previous day actual loads and meteorological factors (e.g., max-min temperature, relative humidity). We describe the application of radial basis function networks (RBF`s) to the {open_quotes}long-term{close_quotes} (next year) load forecasting problem. The RBF network performs a two-stage classification based upon annual average loads and meteorological data. During stage 1, discrete classification is performed using radius-limited elements. During stage 2, a multi-layer perceptron may be applied. The quantized output is used to correct a prediction template. The stage 1 classifier is trained by maximizing an objective function (the {open_quotes}disambiguity{close_quotes}). The stage 2 MLP`s are trained by standard back-propagation. This work uses 12 months of hourly meteorological data, and the corresponding hourly load data for both commercial and residential feeders. At the current stage of development, the RBF machine can train on 20% of the weather/load data (selected by simple linear sampling), and estimate the hourly load for an entire year (8,760 data points) with 9.1% error (RMS, relative to daily peak load). (By comparison, monthly mean profiles perform at c. 12% error.) The best short-term load forecasters operate in the 2% error range. The current system is an engineering prototype, and development is continuing.

  15. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff.

  16. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  17. Long-term operation test of RPCs for the OPERA experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Barichello, G; Brugnera, R; Candela, A; Carrara, E; D'Incecco, M; Dal Corso, F; Degli Esposti, L; Dusini, S; Garfagnini, A; Gustavino, C; Lindozzi, M; Mengucci, A; Monacelli, P; Paoloni, A; Spinetti, M; Stanco, L; Terranova, F; Ventura, M; Votano, L

    2004-01-01

    OPERA is one of the two detectors foreseen in the CERN Neutrino to Gran Sasso project, devoted to the detection of nu//mu into nu //tau oscillations in the parameter region suggested by SuperKamiokande data on atmospheric neutrinos. Bakelite RPCs will be used to instrument the iron yoke of the muon spectrometers. We present the results of long-term (greater than 6 months) streamer operations of real size OPERA RPCs at cosmic rays fluxes. Given the very low rate observed in the underground Gran Sasso Laboratories, under 3 km w.e., even this short time period is equivalent to more than 10 OPERA years. Results of tests with different gas mixtures are reported, in view of decreasing the streamer charge of operation for the RPCs employed in the experiment.

  18. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Jaepil; Shin, Chang-Min; Choi, Hwan-Kyu; Kim, Kyong-Hyeon; Choi, Ji-Yong

    2016-10-01

    The APEC Climate Center (APCC) produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1) the Simple Bias Correction (SBC) method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2) the Moving Window Regression (MWR) method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3) the Climate Index Regression (CIR) method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4) the Integrated Time Regression (ITR) method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  19. Simple procedure for predicting long-term average performance of nonconcentration and of concentrating solar collectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collares-Pereira, M.; Rabl, A.

    1978-06-01

    The Liu and Jordan method of calculating long term average energy collection of flat plate collectors is simplified (by about a factor of 4), and generalized to all collectors, concentration and nonconcentrating. The only meteorological input needed are the long term average daily total hemispherical insolation H/sub h/ on a horizontal surface and, for thermal collectors the average ambient temperature. The collector is characterized by optical efficiency, heat loss (or U-value), heat extraction efficiency, concentration ratio and tracking mode. An average operating temperature is assumed. Interaction with storage can be included by combining the present model with the f-chart method of Beckman, Klein and Duffie. Formulas and examples are presented for five collector types: flat plate, compound parabolic concentrator, concentrator with E.-W. tracking axis, concentrator with polar tracking axis, and concentrator with two axis tracking. The examples show that even for relatively low temperature applications and cloudy climates (50/sup 0/C in New York in February), concentrating collectors can outperform the flat plate. The method has been validated against hourly weather data (with measurements of hemispherical and beam insolation), and has been found to have an average accuracy better than 3% for the long term average radiation available to solar collectors. The suitability of this method for comparison studies is illustrated by comparing in a location independent manner the radiation availability for several collector types or operating conditions: two axis tracking versus one axis tracking; polar tracking axis versus east-west tracking axis; fixed versus tracking flat plate; effect of ground reflectance; and acceptance for diffuse radiation as function of concentration ratio.

  20. Application of rheology for assessment and prediction of the long-term physical stability of emulsions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadros, Tharwat

    2004-05-20

    This review deals with the use of rheology for assessment and prediction of the long-term physical stability of emulsions. It starts with an introduction, highlighting the importance of having accelerated test to predict emulsion stability. This is followed by a section on the stability/instability of emulsion systems, giving a brief summary of the driving force of each instability process and its prevention. The classical techniques that can be applied for assessment of creaming or sedimentation, flocculation, Ostwald ripening, coalescence and phase inversion are briefly described. This is followed by several sections on the application of rheological techniques to assess and predict each of these instabilities. This involves the use of steady state shear stress-shear rate measurements, constant stress (creep) measurements and dynamic (oscillatory) techniques. The last section gives an example of model emulsions to illustrate the correlation between the various break-down processes with the rheological characteristics of the system.

  1. Long-term impacts of unconventional drilling operations on human and animal health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamberger, Michelle; Oswald, Robert E

    2015-01-01

    Public health concerns related to the expansion of unconventional oil and gas drilling have sparked intense debate. In 2012, we published case reports of animals and humans affected by nearby drilling operations. Because of the potential for long-term effects of even low doses of environmental toxicants and the cumulative impact of exposures of multiple chemicals by multiple routes of exposure, a longitudinal study of these cases is necessary. Twenty-one cases from five states were followed longitudinally; the follow-up period averaged 25 months. In addition to humans, cases involved food animals, companion animals and wildlife. More than half of all exposures were related to drilling and hydraulic fracturing operations; these decreased slightly over time. More than a third of all exposures were associated with wastewater, processing and production operations; these exposures increased slightly over time. Health impacts decreased for families and animals moving from intensively drilled areas or remaining in areas where drilling activity decreased. In cases of families remaining in the same area and for which drilling activity either remained the same or increased, no change in health impacts was observed. Over the course of the study, the distribution of symptoms was unchanged for humans and companion animals, but in food animals, reproductive problems decreased and both respiratory and growth problems increased. This longitudinal case study illustrates the importance of obtaining detailed epidemiological data on the long-term health effects of multiple chemical exposures and multiple routes of exposure that are characteristic of the environmental impacts of unconventional drilling operations.

  2. Acute Sleep Deprivation Blocks Short- and Long-Term Operant Memory in Aplysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Harini C; Gandour, Catherine E; Ramos, Joshua L; Wrinkle, Mariah C; Sanchez-Pacheco, Joseph J; Lyons, Lisa C

    2016-12-01

    Insufficient sleep in individuals appears increasingly common due to the demands of modern work schedules and technology use. Consequently, there is a growing need to understand the interactions between sleep deprivation and memory. The current study determined the effects of acute sleep deprivation on short and long-term associative memory using the marine mollusk Aplysia californica, a relatively simple model system well known for studies of learning and memory. Aplysia were sleep deprived for 9 hours using context changes and tactile stimulation either prior to or after training for the operant learning paradigm, learning that food is inedible (LFI). The effects of sleep deprivation on short-term (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) were assessed. Acute sleep deprivation prior to LFI training impaired the induction of STM and LTM with persistent effects lasting at least 24 h. Sleep deprivation immediately after training blocked the consolidation of LTM. However, sleep deprivation following the period of molecular consolidation did not affect memory recall. Memory impairments were independent of handling-induced stress, as daytime handled control animals demonstrated no memory deficits. Additional training immediately after sleep deprivation failed to rescue the induction of memory, but additional training alleviated the persistent impairment in memory induction when training occurred 24 h following sleep deprivation. Acute sleep deprivation inhibited the induction and consolidation, but not the recall of memory. These behavioral studies establish Aplysia as an effective model system for studying the interactions between sleep and memory formation.

  3. Congenital penile curvature: long-term results of operative treatment using the plication procedure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    S.-S.Lee; E.Meng; E-RChuang; C.-Y.Yen; S.-Y.Chang; D.-S.Yu; G.-H.Sun

    2004-01-01

    Aim: To determine the long-term outcome, effectiveness and patient satisfaction of congenital penile curvature correction by plication of tunica albuginea. Methods: From January 1992 to January 2002, 106 young patients underwent surgical correction of congenital penile curvature by corporeal plication. Indications for operation were difficult or impossible vaginal penetration and cosmetic problems. The technique of corporeal plication consists of placing longitudinal plication sutures of 2-zero braided polyester on the convex side of the curvature until the curvature is corrected when erection is artificially induced. Results of this procedure were obtained by retrospective chart reviews and questionnaires via mail. Long-term follow-up ranged from 11 to 132 (mean 69.3) months and data were available for 68 patients. Results: Penile straightening was excellent in 62 patients (91%) and good with less than 15 degree of residual curvature in 6 patients (9 %). Sixty-seven patients reported no change in erectile rigidity or maintenance postoperatively, while 1 described early detumescence. Shortening of the penis without functional problems was noted by 26 patients (38 %). Thirty-Five patients (51%) reported feeling palpable indurations (suture knots) on the penis. Temporary numbness of glans penis was described in 3 patients. Overall, 60 patients were very satisfied, 6 satisfied, 2 unsatisfied. Conclusion: Corporeal plication is an effective and durable procedure with a high rate of patient satisfaction. (Asian J Androl 2004 Sep; 6: 273-276)

  4. Congenital penile curvature: long-term results of operative treatment using the plication procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S-S; Meng, E; Chuang, F-P; Yen, C-Y; Chang, S-Y; Yu, D-S; Sun, G-H

    2004-09-01

    To determine the long-term outcome, effectiveness and patient satisfaction of congenital penile curvature correction by plication of tunica albuginea. From January 1992 to January 2002, 106 young patients underwent surgical correction of congenital penile curvature by corporeal plication. Indications for operation were difficult or impossible vaginal penetration and cosmetic problems. The technique of corporeal plication consists of placing longitudinal plication sutures of 2-zero braided polyester on the convex side of the curvature until the curvature is corrected when erection is artificially induced. Results of this procedure were obtained by retrospective chart reviews and questionnaires via mail. Long-term follow-up ranged from 11 to 132 (mean 69.3) months and data were available for 68 patients. Penile straightening was excellent in 62 patients (91 %) and good with less than 15 degree of residual curvature in 6 patients (9 %). Sixty-seven patients reported no change in erectile rigidity or maintenance postoperatively, while 1 described early detumescence. Shortening of the penis without functional problems was noted by 26 patients (38 %). Thirty-Five patients (51 %) reported feeling palpable indurations (suture knots) on the penis. Temporary numbness of glans penis was described in 3 patients. Overall, 60 patients were very satisfied, 6 satisfied, 2 unsatisfied. Corporeal plication is an effective and durable procedure with a high rate of patient satisfaction.

  5. On the prediction of long term creep strength of creep resistant steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Mi; Wang, Qiao; Song, Xin-Li; Jia, Juan; Xiang, Zhi-Dong [Wuhan University of Science and Technology (China). The State Key Laboratory of Refractories and Metallurgy

    2016-02-15

    When the conventional power law creep equation is applied to rationalise the creep data of creep resistant steels, its parameters depend strongly on stress and temperature and hence cannot be used to predict long term creep properties. Here, it is shown that this problem can be resolved if it is modified to satisfy two boundary conditions, i.e. when σ (stress) = 0, ε{sub min} (minimum creep rate) = 0, and when σ = σ{sub TS} (tensile stress at creep temperature T), ε{sub min} = ∞. This can be achieved by substituting the reference stress σ{sub 0} in the conventional equation by the term (σ{sub TS} - σ). The new power law creep equation describing the stress and temperature dependence of minimum creep rate can then be applied to predict long term creep strength from data of short term measurements. This is demonstrated using the creep and tensile strength data measured for 11Cr-2W-0.4Mo-1Cu-Nb-V steel (tube).

  6. Prediction analysis of long-term memory effect for calamity gray series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN; Zhaonan(CHEN; Chaonan); LI; Zongyang(LEE; Tzongye

    2004-01-01

    It is adequate to use the gray theory for modeling and forecasting short-term calamity series. The forecast of calamity gray series is equivalent to predicting an extraordinary event in nature. In order to look for the regularity, the calamity date series, created from the threshold for a fixed time-interval series, are studied. In this paper, the Hurst exponent is applied to defining the long-term memory effect of the simulated calamity series, and is tested for the feasibility of using it as pre-requisite information before the gray modeling and forecasting. Based on the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) model, the time series with a definite length or quantity of data are derived assuming that various kinds of memory effect exist. Different threshold values are defined to yield or to analogize the calamity date series that are required in the prediction of the gray calamity events. After case study, both of the simulated and real seismic data show that the Hurst exponents are greater than 0.5 and, therefore, indicate that the long-term memory effect exists. The correlation between the Hurst exponent and the gray modeling parameter, a, provides criteria for the classification of the forecast.

  7. Short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery predict program sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramm, Jane Murray; Nieboer, Anna Petra

    2014-01-01

    Empirical evidence on sustainability of programs that improve the quality of care delivery over time is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to identify the predictive role of short and long term improvements in quality of chronic care delivery on program sustainability. In this longitudinal study, professionals [2010 (T0): n=218, 55% response rate; 2011 (T1): n=300, 68% response rate; 2012 (T2): n=265, 63% response rate] from 22 Dutch disease-management programs completed surveys assessing quality of care and program sustainability. Our study findings indicated that quality of chronic care delivery improved significantly in the first 2 years after implementation of the disease-management programs. At T1, overall quality, self-management support, delivery system design, and integration of chronic care components, as well as health care delivery and clinical information systems and decision support, had improved. At T2, overall quality again improved significantly, as did community linkages, delivery system design, clinical information systems, decision support and integration of chronic care components, and self-management support. Multilevel regression analysis revealed that quality of chronic care delivery at T0 (pquality changes in the first (pmanagement programs based on the chronic care model improved the quality of chronic care delivery over time and that short and long term changes in the quality of chronic care delivery predicted the sustainability of the projects.

  8. The long-term functional outcome of type II odontoid fractures managed non-operatively.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Butler, J S

    2010-10-01

    Odontoid fractures currently account for 9-15% of all adult cervical spine fractures, with type II fractures accounting for the majority of these injuries. Despite recent advances in internal fixation techniques, the management of type II fractures still remains controversial with advocates still supporting non-rigid immobilization as the definitive treatment of these injuries. At the NSIU, over an 11-year period between 1 July 1996 and 30 June 2006, 66 patients (n = 66) were treated by external immobilization for type II odontoid fractures. The medical records, radiographs and CT scans of all patients identified were reviewed. Clinical follow-up evaluation was performed using the Cervical Spine Outcomes Questionnaire (CSOQ). The objectives of this study were to evaluate the long-term functional outcome of patients suffering isolated type II odontoid fractures managed non-operatively and to correlate patient age and device type with clinical and functional outcome. Of the 66 patients, there were 42 males and 24 females (M:F = 1.75:1) managed non-operatively for type II odontoid fractures. The mean follow-up time was 66 months. Advancing age was highly correlated with poorer long-term functional outcomes when assessing neck pain (r = 0.19, P = 0.1219), shoulder and arm pain (r = 0.41, P = 0.0007), physical symptoms (r = 0.25, P = 0.472), functional disability (r = 0.24, P = 0.0476) and psychological distress (r = 0.41, P = 0.0007). Patients >65 years displayed a higher rate of pseudoarthrosis (21.43 vs. 1.92%) and established non-union (7.14 vs. 0%) than patients <65 years. The non-operative management of type II odontoid fractures is an effective and satisfactory method of treating type II odontoid fractures, particularly those of a stable nature. However, patients of advancing age have been demonstrated to have significantly poorer functional outcomes in the long term. This may be linked to higher rates of non-union.

  9. General Inattentiveness Is a Long-Term Reliable Trait Independently Predictive of Psychological Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Christian Gaden; Niclasen, Janni; Vangkilde, Signe

    2016-01-01

    The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts, but the l......The Mindful Attention Awareness Scale (MAAS) measures perceived degree of inattentiveness in different contexts and is often used as a reversed indicator of mindfulness. MAAS is hypothesized to reflect a psychological trait or disposition when used outside attentional training contexts......, but the long-term test-retest reliability of MAAS scores is virtually untested. It is unknown whether MAAS predicts psychological health after controlling for standardized socioeconomic status classifications. First, MAAS translated to Danish was validated psychometrically within a randomly invited healthy...... adult community sample (N = 490). Factor analysis confirmed that MAAS scores quantified a unifactorial construct of excellent composite reliability and consistent convergent validity. Structural equation modeling revealed that MAAS scores contributed independently to predicting psychological distress...

  10. Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.; Wilson, J.R.

    2003-01-01

    Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.

  11. NT-ProBNP Independently Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients Admitted for Coronary Angiography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruwald, Martin Huth; Goetze, Jens Peter; Bech, Jan

    2014-01-01

    angiography (CAG). A total of 337 patients with suspected CAD who underwent elective or acute CAG were followed up for a mean period of 6.7 years. Primary end points were all-cause mortality (ACM) and the combined end point of ACM, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and revascularization. In all, 53 (16......%) patients died and 88 (26%) patients reached the combined end point. Preprocedural NT-proBNP above 32 pmol/L independently predicted ACM (hazard ratio [HR] 3.11; confidence interval [CI]: 1.60-6.07; P = .001) and the combined end point (HR 2.44 [CI: 1.50-3.97]; P ...-proBNP is an independent predictor of ACM on long-term follow-up. N-terminal-proBNP is a reliable predictive marker of mortality in the setting of stable or unstable angina....

  12. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amnon eYacoby

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK. We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or one day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information one day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories.

  13. Modified periodontal risk assessment score: long-term predictive value of treatment outcomes. A retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leininger, Matthieu; Tenenbaum, Henri; Davideau, Jean-Luc

    2010-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical predictive value of the periodontal risk assessment diagram surface (PRAS) score and the influence of patient compliance on the treatment outcomes. Thirty subjects suffering from periodontitis were re-examined 6-12 years after the initial diagnosis and periodontal treatments. The baseline PRAS score was calculated from the initial clinical and radiograph records. Patients were then classified into a low-to-moderate (0-20) or a high-risk group (>20). Patients who did not attend any supportive periodontal therapy were classified into a non-compliant group. PRAS and compliance were correlated to the mean tooth loss (TL)/year and the mean variation in the number of periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PPD) >4 mm. TL was 0.11 for the low-to-moderate-risk group and 0.26 for the high-risk group (p<0.05); PPD number reduction was 2.57 and 2.17, respectively, and bleeding on probing reduction was 6.7% and 23.3%, respectively. Comparing the compliance groups, the PPD number reduction was 3.39 in the compliant group and 1.40 in the non-compliant group (p<0.05). This study showed the reliability of PRAS in evaluating long-term TL and patient susceptibility to periodontal disease. Our data confirmed the positive influence of patient compliance on periodontal treatment outcomes.

  14. Soft tissue profile changes following mandibular advancement surgery: predictability and long-term outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobarak, K A; Espeland, L; Krogstad, O; Lyberg, T

    2001-04-01

    The objectives of this cephalometric study were to assess long-term changes in the soft tissue profile following mandibular advancement surgery and to investigate the relationship between soft tissue and hard tissue movements. The sample consisted of 61 patients treated consecutively for mandibular retrognathism with orthodontic therapy combined with bilateral sagittal split osteotomy and rigid fixation. Lateral cephalograms were taken on 6 occasions: immediately before surgery, immediately after surgery, 2 and 6 months after surgery, and 1 and 3 years after surgery. Postsurgical changes in the upper and the lower lips and the mentolabial fold were more pronounced among low-angle cases compared with high-angle cases. In accordance with other studies, the soft tissue chin and the mentolabial fold were generally found to follow their underlying skeletal structures in a 1:1 ratio. Because of the strong influence skeletal relapse has on soft tissue profile changes, alternative ratios of soft tissue-to-hard tissue movement that accounted for mean relapse were also generated. It is suggested that if a more realistic long-term prediction of the postsurgical soft tissue profile is desirable, then ratios incorporating mean relapse should be used rather than estimates based on a 1:1 relationship.

  15. Excess Body Mass Index Loss at 3 Months: A Predictive Factor of Long-Term Result after Sleeve Gastrectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Philouze

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Laparoscopic Sleeve Gastrectomy (SG is considered as successful if the percentage of Excess Body Mass Index Loss (% EBMIL remains constant over 50% with long-term follow-up. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether early % EBMIL was predictive of success after SG. Methods. This retrospective study included patients who had SG with two years of follow-up. Patients had follow-up appointments at 3 (M3, 6, 12, and 24 months (M24. Data as weight and Body Mass Index (BMI were collected systematically. We estimated the % EBMIL necessary to establish a correlation between M3 and M24 compared to % EBMIL speeds and calculated a limit value of % EBMIL predictive of success. Results. Data at operative time, M3, and M24 were available for 128 patients. Pearson test showed a correlation between % EBMIL at M3 and that at M24 (r=0.74;  p<0.0001. % EBMIL speed between surgery and M3 (p=0.0011 was significant but not between M3 and M24. A linear regression analysis proved that % EBMIL over 20.1% at M3 (p<0.0001 predicted a final % EBMIL over 50%. Conclusions. % EBMIL at M3 after SG is correlated with % EBMIL in the long term. % EBMIL speed was significant in the first 3 months. % EBMIL over 20.1% at M3 leads to the success of SG.

  16. Antioxidant defenses predict long-term survival in a passerine bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Saino

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Normal and pathological processes entail the production of oxidative substances that can damage biological molecules and harm physiological functions. Organisms have evolved complex mechanisms of antioxidant defense, and any imbalance between oxidative challenge and antioxidant protection can depress fitness components and accelerate senescence. While the role of oxidative stress in pathogenesis and aging has been studied intensively in humans and model animal species under laboratory conditions, there is a dearth of knowledge on its role in shaping life-histories of animals under natural selection regimes. Yet, given the pervasive nature and likely fitness consequences of oxidative damage, it can be expected that the need to secure efficient antioxidant protection is powerful in molding the evolutionary ecology of animals. Here, we test whether overall antioxidant defense varies with age and predicts long-term survival, using a wild population of a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica, as a model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Plasma antioxidant capacity (AOC of breeding individuals was measured using standard protocols and annual survival was monitored over five years (2006-2010 on a large sample of selection episodes. AOC did not covary with age in longitudinal analyses after discounting the effect of selection. AOC positively predicted annual survival independently of sex. Individuals were highly consistent in their relative levels of AOC, implying the existence of additive genetic variance and/or environmental (including early maternal components consistently acting through their lives. CONCLUSIONS: Using longitudinal data we showed that high levels of antioxidant protection positively predict long-term survival in a wild animal population. Present results are therefore novel in disclosing a role for antioxidant protection in determining survival under natural conditions, strongly demanding for more

  17. Do kidney histology lesions predict long-term kidney function after liver transplantation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamar, Nassim; Maaroufi, Chakib; Guilbeau-Frugier, Céline; Servais, Aude; Meas-Yedid, Vannary; Tack, Ivan; Thervet, Eric; Cointault, Olivier; Esposito, Laure; Guitard, Joelle; Lavayssière, Laurence; Panterne, Clarisse; Muscari, Fabrice; Bureau, Christophe; Rostaing, Lionel

    2012-01-01

    Histological renal lesions observed after liver transplantation are complex, multifactorial, and interrelated. The aims of this study were to determine whether kidney lesions observed at five yr after liver transplantation can predict long-term kidney function. Ninety-nine liver transplant patients receiving calcineurin inhibitor (CNI)-based immunosuppression, who had undergone a kidney biopsy at 60±48 months post-transplant, were included in this follow-up study. Kidney biopsies were scored according to the Banff classification. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was assessed at last follow-up, that is, 109±48 months after liver transplantation. eGFR decreased from 92±33 mL/min at transplantation to 63±19 mL/min after six months, to 57±17 mL/min at the kidney biopsy, to 54±24 mL/min at last follow-up (p<0.0001). At last follow-up, only three patients required renal replacement therapy. After the kidney biopsy, 13 patients were converted from CNIs to mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors, but no significant improvement in eGFR was observed after conversion. Elevated eGFR at six months post-transplant and a lower fibrous intimal thickening score (cv) observed at five yr post-transplant were the two independent predictive factors for eGFR≥60 mL/min at nine yr post-transplant. Long-term kidney function seems to be predicted by the kidney vascular lesions.

  18. Self-reported musculoskeletal pain predicts long-term increase in general health care use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael; Søgaard, Karen

    2014-01-01

    reported during the past two weeks from the Danish National Cohort Study were merged with data from the Danish National Health Insurance Registry and the National Patient Registry containing information on consultations in the Danish primary and secondary care sector. Absolute and relative rates for all......Aims: Musculoskeletal pain and disability is a modern epidemic and a major reason for seeking health care. The aim of this study is to determine absolute and relative rates of care seeking over 20 years for adults reporting musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: Interview data on musculoskeletal pain...... to any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS SELF-REPORT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS PREDICTS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM INCREASE IN GENERAL USE OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND THE SECONDARY HEALTH CARE SECTOR:...

  19. Prediction of long-term creep behaviour and lifetime of polystyrene by linear extrapolation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡立江; 赵树山

    2002-01-01

    The universal creep function derived from the kinetic equations is successful in relating the creep (ε) to the aging time (ta), coefficient of retardation time (β), and intrinsic time (t0). The relation was used to treat the creep experimental data for polystyrene (PS) specimens which were aged at a given temperature and different times (short-term) and tested at a certain temperature and different stress levels. Then unified master lines were constructed with the treated data and curves according to the universal equation. The master lines can be used to predict the long-term creep behaviour and lifetime by extrapolating to a required ultimate strain. The verifications of results obtained with this method were shown as well.

  20. Prediction of long-term creep behavior and lifetime of PPC pipe materials by linear extrapolation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The universal creep equation relates creep behavior(ε/εo)to aging time(ta),coefficient of retardation time(β),and intrinsic time(to).The relation was used to treat the creep experimental data for pipe specimens of polypropylene block copelymer(PPC),which were aged for different days(short-term)and tested under different stress levels at a certain temperature.Then unified master lines were constructed with the treated data and curves according to the universal equation.The master straight lines can be used for extrapolation to predict the long-term creep behavior and lifetime of the pipe materials of PPC in the same way as plate materials.

  1. Impact of microbial activity on the radioactive waste disposal: long term prediction of biocorrosion processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libert, Marie; Schütz, Marta Kerber; Esnault, Loïc; Féron, Damien; Bildstein, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    This study emphasizes different experimental approaches and provides perspectives to apprehend biocorrosion phenomena in the specific disposal environment by investigating microbial activity with regard to the modification of corrosion rate, which in turn can have an impact on the safety of radioactive waste geological disposal. It is found that iron-reducing bacteria are able to use corrosion products such as iron oxides and "dihydrogen" as new energy sources, especially in the disposal environment which contains low amounts of organic matter. Moreover, in the case of sulphate-reducing bacteria, the results show that mixed aerobic and anaerobic conditions are the most hazardous for stainless steel materials, a situation which is likely to occur in the early stage of a geological disposal. Finally, an integrated methodological approach is applied to validate the understanding of the complex processes and to design experiments aiming at the acquisition of kinetic data used in long term predictive modelling of biocorrosion processes.

  2. Modification and Continue Monitoring of Kartini Reactor Tank Liner for Long Term Safe Operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puradwi, I. W.; Nitiswati, S.; Tjiptono, T.; Umar, S.; Nugroho, Tri [BATAN, Yogyakarta (Indonesia)

    2013-07-01

    This paper discusses an experience on modification of bulk shielding facility (BSF) and monitoring of the Kartini reactor tank liner through in-service inspection (ISI) for long term safe operation. The objective of BSF modification is to prevent future water penetration from BSF to both the thermalizing column and space between the aluminium reactor tank liner and the concrete. Modification of BSF needs to be conducted because leakage from the BSF has entered to the area behind the aluminium tank liner and has saturated the concrete that has potential to corrode the steel reinforcement bar, and subsequently pushing the aluminium bottom tank and causing the swelling. The three swelling on the bottom tank have been continued monitoring through ISI regularly since 2001 up to now to observe and measure the three swellings profile. Result of swellings profile measurement indicated that swelling had grown slowly in size and became relatively stable. Careful analysis and assessment of the root causes of the swelling indicated that swelling do not present a threat to future safe operation of the reactor and Kartini reactor is considered to be in good condition. As an outcome of modification and continue monitoring, Kartini Reactor in Yogyakarta has been already obtained extended operation license for the third period from Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency of Indonesia (BAPETEN) up to 2020.

  3. The long-term nutritional status in stroke patients and its predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquereau, Julie; Allart, Etienne; Romon, Monique; Rousseaux, Marc

    2014-07-01

    Malnutrition is common in the first few months after stroke and contributes to a poor overall outcome. We analyzed long-term weight changes and their predictive factors. A total of 71 first-ever stroke patients were included in the study and examined (1) their weight on admission to the acute stroke unit (usual weight [UW]), on admission to the rehabilitation unit, on discharge from the rehabilitation unit, and then 1 year or more after the stroke (median time: 2.5 years), (2) the presence of malnutrition after stroke, and (3) possible predictive factors, namely, sociodemographic factors, clinical characteristics (concerning the stroke, the patient's current neurologic status and the presence of diabetes mellitus and depression), and the present nutritional state (including eating difficulties, anorexia, and changes in food intake and food preferences). Body weight fell (4.0 kg) during the patients' stay in the stroke unit, increased moderately in the rehabilitation unit (2.0 kg), and returned to the UW by the long-term measurement. However, at the last observation, 40.1% of the patients weighed markedly less than their UW, 38.0% weighed markedly more, and 21.1% were relatively stable. Predictors of weight change were a change in preferences for sweet food products and a change in food intake. Malnutrition was frequent (47.9%) and associated with reduced food intake, residence in an institution, and diabetes mellitus. Malnutrition was highly prevalent, with an important role of change in food intake and food preferences, which could result from brain lesions and specific regimens. Living in an institution needs consideration, as its negative effects can be prevented. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Lesion load may predict long-term cognitive dysfunction in multiple sclerosis patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Patti

    Full Text Available Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm in Multiple Sclerosis (MS.To investigate the role of white matter (WM and gray matter (GM in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients.303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up. The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f, WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f, a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT, the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL, the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST, and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT. In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors.AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12-1.97 p = 0.006, PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14-1.80 p = 0.002, SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35-2.20 p<0.001, SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28-2.03 p<0.001, MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2-1.9 p<0.001, MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2-1.9 p = 0.001, MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02-1.55 p = 0.032.In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome.

  5. Soluble Co-Signaling Molecules Predict Long-Term Graft Outcome in Kidney-Transplanted Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendreras, Susana G.; Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Menéndez, Aurora; Bravo-Mendoza, Cristina; González-Vidal, Ana; Coto, Eliecer; Díaz-Corte, Carmen; Ruiz-Ortega, Marta; López-Larrea, Carlos; Suárez-Álvarez, Beatriz

    2014-01-01

    Co-signaling molecules are responsible for full T-cell activation after solid organ transplantation. Their increased expression can lead to the release of a soluble form that can modulate the immune response post-transplantation. We analyzed the presence of co-signaling molecules (sCD30, sCD40, sCD137, sCTLA-4, sCD80, sCD28, sCD40L, sPD-1, and sPD-L1) in serum from kidney-transplanted patients (n = 59) obtained at different times (before transplantation, and 15 days, 3 months and 1 year post-transplantation) and their contribution to graft outcome was evaluated using principal component analysis. Before transplantation, high levels of soluble co-signaling molecules (mainly sCD30, sCD137 and sCD40) were detected in all patients. These molecules were modulated soon after receiving an allograft but never attained similar levels to those of healthy controls. A signature based on the determination of six soluble co-stimulatory (sCD30, sCD40, sCD137 and sCD40L) and co-inhibitory (sPD-1 and sPD-L1) molecules at 3 months post-transplantation allowed a group of patients to be identified (27.12%) with a worse long-term graft outcome. Patients with high levels of soluble molecules showed a progressive and gradual deterioration of kidney function (increased creatinine and proteinuria levels and decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate) over time and a higher risk of graft loss at 6 years post-transplantation than patients with low levels of these molecules (62.55% versus 5.14%, pmolecules in kidney-transplanted patients whose quantification at 3 months post-transplantation might be a useful biomarker of immune status and help to predict long-term graft evolution. PMID:25478957

  6. An empirical approach to predicting long term behavior of metal particle based recording media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadad, Allan S.

    1991-01-01

    Alpha iron particles used for magnetic recording are prepared through a series of dehydration and reduction steps of alpha-Fe2O3-H2O resulting in acicular, polycrystalline, body centered cubic (bcc) alpha-Fe particles that are single magnetic domains. Since fine iron particles are pyrophoric by nature, stabilization processes had to be developed in order for iron particles to be considered as a viable recording medium for long term archival (i.e., 25+ years) information storage. The primary means of establishing stability is through passivation or controlled oxidation of the iron particle's surface. Since iron particles used for magnetic recording are small, additional oxidation has a direct impact on performance especially where archival storage of recorded information for long periods of time is important. Further stabilization chemistry/processes had to be developed to guarantee that iron particles could be considered as a viable long term recording medium. In an effort to retard the diffusion of iron ions through the oxide layer, other elements such as silicon, aluminum, and chromium have been added to the base iron to promote more dense scale formation or to alleviate some of the non-stoichiometric behavior of the oxide or both. The presence of water vapor has been shown to disrupt the passive layer, subsequently increasing the oxidation rate of the iron. A study was undertaken to examine the degradation in magnetic properties as a function of both temperature and humidity on silicon-containing iron particles between 50-120 deg C and 3-89 percent relative humidity. The methodology to which experimental data was collected and analyzed leading to predictive capability is discussed.

  7. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Philip [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); McMaster University, Population Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine, and Department of Radiology, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); Mani, Venkatesh [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Kallend, David [The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ (United States); Rudd, James H.F. [University of Cambridge, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Fayad, Zahi A. [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Hess CSM Building Floor TMII, Rm S1-104, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States)

    2017-01-15

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  8. Identifying the limitations of conventional biofiltration of diffuse methane emissions at long-term operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Cuervo, S; Hernández, J; Omil, F

    2016-08-01

    There is growing international concern about the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly CO2 and methane. The emissions of methane derived from human activities are associated with large flows and very low concentrations, such as those emitted from landfills and wastewater treatment plants, among others. The present work was focused on the biological methane degradation at diffuse concentrations (0.2% vv(-1)) in a conventional biofilter using a mixture of compost, perlite and bark chips as carrier. An extensive characterization of the process was carried out at long-term operation (250 days) in a fully monitored pilot plant, achieving stable conditions during the entire period. Operational parameters such as waterings, nitrogen addition and inlet loads and contact time influences were evaluated. Obtained results indicate that empty bed residence times within 4-8 min are crucial to maximize elimination rates. Waterings and the type of nitrogen supplied in the nutrient solution (ammonia or nitrate) have a strong impact on the biofilter performance. The better results compatible with a stable operation were achieved using nitrate, with elimination capacities up to 7.6 ± 1.1 g CH4 m(-3 )h(-1). The operation at low inlet concentrations (IC) implied that removal rates obtained were quite limited (ranging 3-8 g CH4 m(-3 )h(-1)); however, these results could be significantly increased (up to 20.6 g CH4 m(-3) h(-1)) at higher IC, which indicates that the mass transfer from the gas to the liquid layer surrounding the biofilm is a key limitation of the process.

  9. Predicting long-term sickness absence and early retirement pension from self-reported work ability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sell, Lea; Bültmann, Ute; Rugulies, Reiner Ernst

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market.......The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between self-reported work ability and long-term term of sickness absence or early retirement from the labour market....

  10. Short- and long-term effects of habitat fragmentation differ but are predicted by response to the matrix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Maldwyn J; Banks, Sam C; Driscoll, Don A; Hicks, Andrew J; Melbourne, Brett A; Davies, Kendi F

    2017-03-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Our current understanding of the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation is based largely on studies that focus on either short-term or long-term responses. Short-term responses are often used to predict long-term responses and make management decisions. The lack of studies comparing short- and long-term responses to fragmentation means we do not adequately understand when and how well short-term responses can be extrapolated to predict long-term responses, and when or why they cannot. To address this gap, we used data from one of the world's longest-running fragmentation experiments, The Wog Wog Habitat Fragmentation Experiment. Using data for carabid beetles, we found that responses in the long term (more than 22 yr post-fragmentation ≈22 generations) often contrasted markedly with those in the short term (5 yr post-fragmentation). The total abundance of all carabids, species richness and the occurrence of six species declined in the short term in the fragments but increased over the long term. The occurrence of three species declined initially and continued to decline, whilst another species was positively affected initially but decreased in the long term. Species' responses to the matrix that surrounds the fragments strongly predicted both the direction (increase/decline in occurrence) and magnitude of their responses to fragmentation. Additionally, species' responses to the matrix were somewhat predicted by their preferences for different types of native habitat (open vs. shaded). Our study highlights the degree of the matrix's influence in fragmented landscapes, and how this influence can change over time. We urge caution in using short-term responses to forecast long-term responses in cases where the matrix (1) impacts species' responses to fragmentation (by isolating them, creating new habitat or altering fragment habitat) and (2) is likely to change through time

  11. Chronic sleep deprivation differentially affects short and long-term operant memory in Aplysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Harini C; Noakes, Eric J; Lyons, Lisa C

    2016-10-01

    The induction, formation and maintenance of memory represent dynamic processes modulated by multiple factors including the circadian clock and sleep. Chronic sleep restriction has become common in modern society due to occupational and social demands. Given the impact of cognitive impairments associated with sleep deprivation, there is a vital need for a simple animal model in which to study the interactions between chronic sleep deprivation and memory. We used the marine mollusk Aplysia californica, with its simple nervous system, nocturnal sleep pattern and well-characterized learning paradigms, to assess the effects of two chronic sleep restriction paradigms on short-term (STM) and long-term (LTM) associative memory. The effects of sleep deprivation on memory were evaluated using the operant learning paradigm, learning that food is inedible, in which the animal associates a specific netted seaweed with failed swallowing attempts. We found that two nights of 6h sleep deprivation occurring during the first or last half of the night inhibited both STM and LTM. Moreover, the impairment in STM persisted for more than 24h. A milder, prolonged sleep deprivation paradigm consisting of 3 consecutive nights of 4h sleep deprivation also blocked STM, but had no effect on LTM. These experiments highlight differences in the sensitivity of STM and LTM to chronic sleep deprivation. Moreover, these results establish Aplysia as a valid model for studying the interactions between chronic sleep deprivation and associative memory paving the way for future studies delineating the mechanisms through which sleep restriction affects memory formation.

  12. Heart-shaped anastomosis for Hirschsprung's disease: Operative technique and long-term follow-up

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Wang; Xiao-Yi Sun; Ming-Fa Wei; Yi-Zhen Weng

    2005-01-01

    AIM: To study the long-term therapeutic effect of "heartshaped" anastomosis for Hirschsprung's disease.METHODS: From January 1986 to October 1997, we performed one-stage "heart-shaped" anastomosis for 193 patients with Hirschsprung's disease (HD). One hundred and fiftytwo patients were followed up patients (follow-up rate 79%).The operative outcome and postoperative complications were retrospectively analyzed.RESULTS: Early complications included urine retention in 2patients, enteritis in 10, anastomotic stricture in 1, and intestinal obstruction in 2. No infection of abdominal cavity or wound and anastomotic leakage or death occurred in any patients. Late complications were present in 22 cases,including adhesive intestinal obstruction in 2, longer anal in 5, incision hernia in 2, enteritis in 6, occasional stool stains in 7 and 6 related with improper diet. No constipation or incontinence occurred in any patient.CONCLUSION: The early and late postoperative complication rates were 7.8% and 11.4% respectively in our "heartshaped anastomosis" procedure. "Heart-shaped"anastomosis procedure for Hirschsprung's disease provides a better therapeutic effect compared to classic procedures.

  13. Determining effective forecast horizons for multi-purpose reservoirs with short- and long-term operating objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luchner, Jakob; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    selection technique. The technique determines the most informative combination in a multi-variate regression model to the optimal reservoir releases based on perfect information at a fixed objective trade-off. The improved reservoir operation is evaluated against optimal reservoir operation conditioned upon perfect information on future disturbances and basic reservoir operation using only the day of the year and the reservoir level. Different objective trade-offs are selected for analyzing resulting differences in improved reservoir operation and selected forecast variables and horizons. For comparison, the effective streamflow forecast horizon determined by the ISA framework is benchmarked against the performances obtained with a deterministic model predictive control (MPC) optimization scheme. Both the ISA framework and the MPC optimization scheme are applied to the real-world case study of Lake Como, Italy, using perfect streamflow forecast information. The principal operation targets for Lake Como are flood control and downstream water supply which makes its operation a suitable case study. Results provide critical feedback to reservoir operators on the use of long-term streamflow forecasts and to the hydro-meteorological forecasting community with respect to the forecast horizon needed from reliable streamflow forecasts.

  14. Long-term Failure Prediction based on an ARP Model of Global Risk Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

    Risks that threaten modern societies form an intricately interconnected network. Hence, it is important to understand how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. In the paper, we study the global risks network defined by World Economic Forum experts in the form of Stochastic Block Model. We model risks as Alternating Renewal Processes with variable intensities driven by hidden values of exogenous and endogenous failure probabilities. Based on the expert assessments and historical status of each risk, we use Maximum Likelihood Evaluation to find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model considering network effects significantly outperforms the others. In the talk, we discuss how the model can be used to provide quantitative means for measuring interdependencies and materialization of risks in the network. We also present recent results of long-term predictions in the form of predicated distributions of materializations over various time periods. Finally we show how the simulation of ARP's enables us to probe limits of the predictability of the system parameters from historical data and ability to recover hidden variable. Supported in part by DTRA, ARL NS-CTA.

  15. Corrosion behaviour of reinforced concrete: Laboratory experiments and archaeological analogues for long-term predictive modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L' Hostis, V. [CEA, DEN, DPC, SCCME, Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et des Argiles, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)], E-mail: valerie.lhostis@cea.fr; Foct, F. [EDF R and D/MMC, Site des Renardieres, 77818 Moret-sur-Loing cedex (France); Dillmann, P. [CEA/CNRS Laboratoire Pierre Suee, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex (France); CNRS IRAMAT, UMR 5060 (France)

    2008-09-30

    In the context of the nuclear waste storage, reinforced concrete will be used for various purposes such as cell structures and some types of containers (e.g. for intermediate level wastes). These structures are required to be safe and reliable in varying environments for long periods of time (up to several hundred years). This paper presents a specific approach that is developed in France at CEA and EDF for the prediction of long-term behaviour of such structures. It discusses the experimental and theoretical approaches which have been developed. It is based on interactive studies dedicated to short term experimentations (corrosion and mechanical behaviour of structures), characterization and specific tests on archaeological analogues, both used to develop mechanistic understanding and modelling of corrosion and mechanical behaviour of reinforced concrete. Advantages and limits of these different and complementary aspects are presented and discussed. Moreover the prediction results of a specific mechanistic model have been confronted to real structures exposed to atmospheric conditions for many years.

  16. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  17. Chest HRCT signs predict deaths in long-term follow-up among asbestos exposed workers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vehmas, Tapio, E-mail: tapio.vehmas@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FI-00250 Helsinki (Finland); Oksa, Panu, E-mail: panu.oksa@ttl.fi [Health and Work Ability, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Uimalankatu 1, FI-33101 Tampere (Finland)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Much lung and pleural pathology is found in chest CT studies. • HRCT signs were screened and subsequent mortality followed up. • Several signs were related to all-cause and disease specific deaths. • The HRCT classification system used was able to predict mortality. • Secondary preventive strategies should be developed for patients with such signs. - Abstract: Objectives: To study associations between chest HRCT signs and subsequent deaths in long-term follow-up. Methods: Lung and pleural signs of 633 asbestos exposed workers (age 45–86, mean 65) screened with HRCT were recorded by using the International Classification of Occupational and Environmental Respiratory Diseases (ICOERD) system, which contains detailed instructions for use and reference images. Subsequent mortality was checked from the national register. Cox regression adjusted for covariates (age, sex, BMI, asbestos exposure, pack-years) was used to explore the relations between HRCT signs and all-cause deaths, cardiovascular and benign respiratory deaths, and deaths from neoplasms – all according to the ICD-10 diagnostic system. Results: The follow-up totalled 5271.9 person-years (mean 8.3 y/person, range .04–10.3). 119 deaths were reported. Irregular/linear opacities, honeycombing, emphysema, large opacities, visceral pleural abnormalities and bronchial wall thickening were all significantly related to all-cause deaths. Most of these signs were associated also with deaths from neoplasms and benign respiratory disease. Deaths from cardiovascular disease were predicted by emphysema and visceral pleural abnormalities. Conclusions: Several HRCT signs predicted deaths. Careful attention should be paid on subjects with radiological signs predictive of deaths and new secondary preventive strategies developed. This calls for further focused studies among different populations.

  18. Fracture Toughness Evaluation of Kori-1 RPV Beltline Weld for a Long-Term Operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Bong-Sang; Kim, Min-Chul; Ahn, Sang-Bok; Kim, Byung-Chul; Hong, Jun-Hwa [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    Irradiation embrittlement of RPV (reactor pressure vessel) material is the most important aging issue for a long-term operation of nuclear power plants. KORI unit 1, which is the first PWR in Korea, is approaching its initial licensing life of 30 years. In order to operate the reactor for another 10 years and more, it should be demonstrated that the irradiation embrittlement of the reactor will be adequately managed by ensuring that the fracture toughness properties have a certain level of the safety margin. The current regulation requires Charpy V-notch impact data through conventional surveillance tests. It is based on the assumption that Charpy impact test results are well correlated with the fracture toughness properties of many engineering steels. However, Charpy V-notch impact data may not be adequate to estimate the fracture toughness of certain materials, such as Linde 80 welds. During the last decade, a tremendous number of fracture toughness data on many RPV steels have been produced in accordance with the new standard test method, the so-called master curve method. ASTM E1921 represents a revolutionary advance in characterizing fracture toughness of RPV steels, since it permits establishing the ductile to brittle transition portion of the fracture toughness curve with direct measurements on a relatively small number of relatively small specimens, such as pre-cracked Charpy specimens. Actual fracture toughness data from many different RPV steels revealed that the Charpy test estimations are generally conservative with the exception of a few cases. Recent regulation codes in USA permit the master curve fracture toughness methodology in evaluating an irradiation embrittlement of commercial nuclear reactor vessels.

  19. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor...... and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without...... LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...

  20. Whipple's operation for carcinoma of the pancreatic head and the ampullary region. Short-and long-term results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, M B; Banner, Jytte; Rokkjaer, M;

    1998-01-01

    In this retrospective review short- and long-term perspectives have been evaluated for 108 patients who, during 1982 through 1992, had Whipple's operation performed for carcinoma of the pancreatic head (PC, n=63) or the ampullary region (AC, n=45). In 24 patients the operation was not radical (21...

  1. Whipple's operation for carcinoma of the pancreatic head and the ampullary region. Short-and long-term results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, M B; Banner, Jytte; Rokkjaer, M

    1998-01-01

    In this retrospective review short- and long-term perspectives have been evaluated for 108 patients who, during 1982 through 1992, had Whipple's operation performed for carcinoma of the pancreatic head (PC, n=63) or the ampullary region (AC, n=45). In 24 patients the operation was not radical (21...

  2. Predicting Agricultural Management Influence on Long-Term Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics: Implications for Biofuel Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gollany, H. T. [USDA ARS; Rickman, R. W. [USDA ARS; Albrecht, S. L. [USDA ARS; Liang, Y. [University of Arkansas; Kang, Shujiang [ORNL; Machado, S. [Oregon State University, Corvallis

    2011-01-01

    Long-term field experiments (LTE) are ideal for predicting the influence of agricultural management on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and examining biofuel crop residue removal policy questions. Our objectives were (i) to simulate SOC dynamics in LTE soils under various climates, crop rotations, fertilizer or organic amendments, and crop residue managements using the CQESTR model and (ii) to predict the potential of no-tillage (NT) management to maintain SOC stocks while removing crop residue. Classical LTEs at Champaign, IL (1876), Columbia, MO (1888), Lethbridge, AB (1911), Breton, AB (1930), and Pendleton, OR (1931) were selected for their documented history of management practice and periodic soil organic matter (SOM) measurements. Management practices ranged from monoculture to 2- or 3-yr crop rotations, manure, no fertilizer or fertilizer additions, and crop residue returned, burned, or harvested. Measured and CQESTR predicted SOC stocks under diverse agronomic practices, mean annual temperature (2.1 19 C), precipitation (402 973 mm), and SOC (5.89 33.58 g SOC kg 1) at the LTE sites were significantly related (r 2 = 0.94, n = 186, P < 0.0001) with a slope not significantly different than 1. The simulation results indicated that the quantities of crop residue that can be sustainably harvested without jeopardizing SOC stocks were influenced by initial SOC stocks, crop rotation intensity, tillage practices, crop yield, and climate. Manure or a cover crop/intensified crop rotation under NT are options to mitigate loss of crop residue C, as using fertilizer alone is insufficient to overcome residue removal impact on SOC stocks

  3. A first look at global flash drought: long term change and short term predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Wang, Linying; Ji, Peng

    2017-04-01

    "Flash drought" became popular after the unexpected 2012 central USA drought, mainly due to its rapid development, low predictability and devastating impacts on water resources and crop yields. A pilot study by Mo and Lettenmaier (2015) found that flash drought, based on a definition of concurrent heat extreme, soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration (ET) enhancement at pentad scale, were in decline over USA during recent 100 years. Meanwhile, a recent work indicated that the occurrence of flash drought in China was doubled during the past 30 years, where a severe flash drought in the summer of 2013 ravaged 13 provinces in southern China. As global warming increases the frequency of heat waves and accelerates the hydrological cycle, the flash drought is expected to increase in general, but its trend might also be affected by interannual to decadal climate oscillations. To consolidate the hotspots of flash drought and the effects of climate change on flash drought, a global inventory is being conducted by using multi-source observations (in-situ, satellite and reanalysis), CMIP5 historical simulations and future projections under different forcing scenarios, as well as global land surface hydrological modeling for key variables including surface air temperature, soil moisture and ET. In particular, a global picture of the flash drought distribution, the contribution of naturalized and anthropogenic forcings to global flash drought change, and the risk of global flash drought in the future, will be presented. Besides investigating the long-term change of flash drought, providing reliable early warning is also essential to developing adaptation strategies. While regional drought early warning systems have been emerging in recent decade, forecasting of flash drought is still at an exploratory stage due to limited understanding of flash drought predictability. Here, a set of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast datasets are being used to assess the short term

  4. Prediction of long-term erosion from landfill covers in the southwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, C.E.; Stormont, J.C. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Erosion is a primary stressor of landfill covers, especially for climates with high intensity storms and low native plant density. Rills and gullies formed by discrete events can damage barrier layers and induce failure. Geomorphologic, empirical and physical modeling procedures are available to provide estimates of surface erosion, but numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the severe rainfall events that generate erosion. The National Weather Service precipitation frequency data and estimates of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute intensity can be statistically combined in a numerical model to obtain long-term erosion estimates. Physically based numerical models using the KINEROS and AHYMO programs have been utilized to predict the erosion from a southwestern landfill or waste containment site with 0.03, 0.05 and 0.08 meter per meter surface slopes. Results of AHYMO modeling were within 15 percent of average annual values computed with the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation. However, the estimation of rill and gully formation that primarily degrades cover systems requires quantifying single events. For Southwestern conditions, a single 10-year storm can produce erosion quantifies equal to three times the average annual erosion and a 100-year storm can produce five times the average annual erosion.

  5. Serum YKL-40 predicts long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harutyunyan, Marina; Gøtze, Jens P; Winkel, Per

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether the inflammatory biomarker YKL-40 could improve the long-term prediction of death made by common risk factors plus high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal-pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with stable coronary artery disease...... (CAD). BACKGROUND: Non-hospitalized CAD patients are usually followed in general practice. There is a need for identify biomarkers which could help to foresee the prognoses of these patients. Elevated serum YKL-40 is a short-term predictor for myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality and all......-cause mortality in patients with stable CAD. METHODS: Serum YKL-40, hs-CRP, and NT-proBNP were measured in 4265 (97.6%) of the 4372 patients with stable CAD included in the CLARICOR trial, and death was registered in a 6-years follow-up period. RESULTS: The median serum YKL-40 was 110 μg/L [IQR=93], hs-CRP 2.8 mg...

  6. Latent profiles of nonresidential father engagement six years after divorce predict long-term offspring outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa J; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2015-01-01

    This study examined profiles of nonresidential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) 6 to 8 years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, 9 years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of nonresidential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed 9 years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes 9 years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother's remarriage, mother's income, and gender, age, and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems 9 years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed.

  7. Early Prediction of Long-Term Response to Cabergoline in Patients with Macroprolactinomas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngki Lee

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundCabergoline is typically effective for treating prolactinomas; however, some patients display cabergoline resistance, and the early characteristics of these patients remain unclear. We analyzed early indicators predicting long-term response to cabergoline.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the cases of 44 patients with macroprolactinomas who received cabergoline as first-line treatment; the patients were followed for a median of 16 months. The influence of various clinical parameters on outcomes was evaluated.ResultsForty patients (90.9% were treated medically and displayed tumor volume reduction (TVR of 74.7%, a prolactin normalization (NP rate of 81.8%, and a complete response (CR; TVR >50% with NP, without surgery rate of 70.5%. Most patients (93.1% with TVR ≥25% and NP at 3 months eventually achieved CR, whereas only 50% of patients with TVR ≥25% without NP and no patients with TVR 25% at 3 months without NP, particularly those with huge prolactinomas, because a delayed response may be achieved. As surgery can reduce the cabergoline dose necessary for successful disease control, it should be considered for cabergoline-resistant patients.

  8. Predicting the long-term fate of buried organic carbon in colluvial soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhengang; Van Oost, Kristof; Govers, Gerard

    2015-04-01

    A significant part of the soil organic carbon (SOC) that is eroded in uplands is deposited and buried in colluvial settings. Understanding the fate of this deposited soil organic carbon is of key importance for the understanding of the role of (accelerated) erosion in the global C cycle: the residence time of the deposited carbon will determine if, and for how long, accelerated erosion due to human disturbance will induce sequestration of SOC from the atmosphere to the soil. Experimental studies may provide useful information, but, given the time scale under consideration, the response of the colluvial SOC can only be simulated using numerical models which need careful calibration using field data. In this study, we present a depth explicit SOC model (ICBM-DE) including soil profile evolution due to sedimentation to simulate the long-term C dynamics in colluvial soils. The SOC profile predicted by our model is in good agreement with field observations. The C burial efficiency (the ratio of current C content of the buried sediments to the original C content at the time of sedimentation) of deposited sediments exponentially decreases with time and gradually reached an equilibrium value. This equilibrium C burial efficiency is positively correlated with the sedimentation rate. The sedimentation rate is crucial for the long-term dynamics of the deposited SOC as it controls the time that buried sediments spend at a given soil depth, thereby determining its temporal evolution of C input and decomposition rate during the burial process: C input and decomposition rate vary with depth due to the vertical variation of root distribution and soil environmental factors such as (but not limited to) humidity, temperature and aeration. The model demonstrates that, for the profiles studied, it takes ca. 300 yr for the buried SOC to lose half of its C load. It would also take centuries for the SOC accumulated in colluvial soils over the past decades due to soil redistribution under

  9. Predicting long-term carbon mineralization and trace gas production from thawing permafrost of Northeast Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoblauch, Christian; Beer, Christian; Sosnin, Alexander; Wagner, Dirk; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2013-04-01

    The currently observed Arctic warming will increase permafrost degradation followed by mineralization of formerly frozen organic matter to carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ). Despite increasing awareness of permafrost carbon vulnerability, the potential long-term formation of trace gases from thawing permafrost remains unclear. The objective of the current study is to quantify the potential long-term release of trace gases from permafrost organic matter. Therefore, Holocene and Pleistocene permafrost deposits were sampled in the Lena River Delta, Northeast Siberia. The sampled permafrost contained between 0.6% and 12.4% organic carbon. CO2 and CH4 production was measured for 1200 days in aerobic and anaerobic incubations at 4 °C. The derived fluxes were used to estimate parameters of a two pool carbon degradation model. Total CO2 production was similar in Holocene permafrost (1.3 ± 0.8 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) aerobically, 0.25 ± 0.13 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) anaerobically) as in 34 000-42 000-year-old Pleistocene permafrost (1.6 ± 1.2 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) aerobically, 0.26 ± 0.10 mg CO2 -C gdw(-1) anaerobically). The main predictor for carbon mineralization was the content of organic matter. Anaerobic conditions strongly reduced carbon mineralization since only 25% of aerobically mineralized carbon was released as CO2 and CH4 in the absence of oxygen. CH4 production was low or absent in most of the Pleistocene permafrost and always started after a significant delay. After 1200 days on average 3.1% of initial carbon was mineralized to CO2 under aerobic conditions while without oxygen 0.55% were released as CO2 and 0.28% as CH4 . The calibrated carbon degradation model predicted cumulative CO2 production over a period of 100 years accounting for 15.1% (aerobic) and 1.8% (anaerobic) of initial organic carbon, which is significantly less than recent estimates. The multiyear time series from the incubation experiments helps to more reliably constrain projections of future

  10. Psychrophilic dry anaerobic digestion of dairy cow feces: Long-term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massé, Daniel I., E-mail: Daniel.masse@agr.gc.ca; Cata Saady, Noori M.

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • Psychrophilic dry anaerobic digestion (PDAD) of cow feces (CF) is feasible. • PDAD of CF is as efficient as mesophilic and thermophilic AD at TCL 21 days. • CF (13–16% TS at OLR 5.0 g TCOD{sub fed} kg{sup −1} inoculum d{sup −1}) yielded 222 ± 27 {sub N}L CH{sub 4} kg{sup −1} VS fed. - Abstract: This paper reports experimental results which demonstrate psychrophilic dry anaerobic digestion of cow feces during long-term operation in sequence batch reactor. Cow feces (13–16% total solids) has been anaerobically digested in 12 successive cycles (252 days) at 21 days treatment cycle length (TCL) and temperature of 20 °C using psychrotrophic anaerobic mixed culture. An average specific methane yield (SMY) of 184.9 ± 24.0, 189.9 ± 27.3, and 222 ± 27.7 {sub N}L CH{sub 4} kg{sup −1} of VS fed has been achieved at an organic loading rate of 3.0, 4.0, and 5.0 g TCOD kg{sup −1} inoculum d{sup −1} and TCL of 21 days, respectively. The corresponding substrate to inoculum ratio (SIR) was 0.39 ± 0.06, 0.48 ± .02, 0.53 ± 0.05, respectively. Average methane production rate of 10 ± 1.4 {sub N}L CH{sub 4} kg{sup −1} VS fed d{sup −1} has been obtained. The low concentration of volatile fatty acids indicated that hydrolysis was the reaction limiting step.

  11. Response to Initial Therapy of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Predicts the Long-Term Outcome Better than Classical Risk Stratification Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Cano-Palomares

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Although differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC usually has an indolent course, some cases show a poor prognosis; therefore, risk stratification is required. The objective of this study is to compare the predictive ability of classical risk stratification systems proposed by the European Thyroid Association (ETA and American Thyroid Association (ATA with the system proposed by Tuttle et al. in 2010, based on the response to initial therapy (RIT. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 176 cases of DTC with a median follow-up period of 7.0 years. Each patient was stratified using ETA, ATA, and RIT systems. Negative predictive value (NPV and positive predictive value (PPV were determined. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was calculated in order to compare the predictive ability. Results. RIT showed a NPV of 97.7%, better than NPV of ETA and ATA systems (93.9% and 94.9%, resp.. ETA and ATA systems showed poor PPV (40.3% and 41%, resp., while RIT showed a PPV of 70.8%. The area under ROC curve was 0.7535 for ETA, 0.7876 for ATA, and 0.9112 for RIT, showing statistical significant differences P<0.05. Conclusions. RIT predicts the long-term outcome of DTC better than ETA/ATA systems, becoming a useful system to adapt management strategies.

  12. Pre-surgery Disability Compensation Predicts Long-Term Disability among Workers with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spector, June T.; Turner, Judith A.; Fulton-Kehoe, Deborah; Franklin, Gary

    2012-01-01

    Background We sought to identify early risk factors for work disability compensation prior to and after carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) surgery, and to determine whether pre-surgery disability compensation is associated with long-term disability. Methods Washington State workers’ compensation administrative data and data from interviews with workers 18 days (median) after submitting new workers’ compensation claims for CTS were examined. Baseline risk factors for pre-surgery disability compensation and for long-term disability (≥365 days of work disability compensation prior to two years after claim filing) were evaluated for workers who underwent CTS surgery and had at least one day of disability compensation (N=670). Results After adjustment for baseline long-term disability risk factors, workers with pre-surgery disability compensation had over five times the odds of long-term disability. Baseline factors in multiple domains, including job, psychosocial, clinical, and worker pain and function, were associated with both pre-surgery disability compensation and long-term disability. Conclusions Risk factors for work disability prior to and after CTS surgery are similar, and early work disability is a risk factor for long-term CTS-related disability. An integrated approach to CTS-related disability prevention could include identifying and addressing combined risk factors soon after claim filing, more efficient use of conservative treatments and appropriate work modifications to minimize early work loss, and, when indicated, timely surgical intervention. PMID:22392804

  13. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tech-nique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with carpet

  14. Prediction of short-term and long-term VOC emissions from SBR bitumen-backed carpet under different temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.; Chen, Q.; Bluyssen, P.M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents two models for volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from carpet. One is a numerical model using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tech-nique for short-term predictions, the other an analytical model for long-term predictions. The numerical model can (1) deal with

  15. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... absence, and early retirement from the labour market. Predictor variables included gender, age, socio-economic position, job type, chronic disease status, history of sickness absence, and prior history of unemployment. Separate models were built for times of economic growth (2005-2007) and times...

  16. Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

  17. Neuromagnetic index of hemispheric asymmetry predicting long-term outcome in sudden hearing loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lieber Po-Hung; Chen, Kuang-Chao; Lee, Po-Lei; Niddam, David M; Cheng, Chou-Ming; Chou, Chih-Cher; Hsieh, Jen-Chuen; Shiao, An-Suey

    2013-01-01

    The neuromagnetic index of hemispheric asymmetry in terms of ipsilateral/contralateral ratio at acute stage was previously revealed to prognosticate the 1-month hearing outcome of acute unilateral idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL), showing a dynamic relationship between top- and down-levels of auditory pathway. However, the prognostic effect of reorganization pattern for the long-term results remained elusive. This study aimed to probe the prognosticating relevance of hemispheric asymmetry to the hearing at chronic stage of ISSNHL. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG), inter-hemispheric differences in peak dipole of N100m responses to monaural tones were evaluated in 21 controls and 21 ISSNHL patients at initial and final (12 months later) stages. Predictive value of hemispheric asymmetry was assessed by correlating hearing level and ipsilateral/contralateral ratio (I/C) of N100m latency and amplitude. Healthy-side dominance of N100m was observed in ISSNHL initially, and remained in three final prognostic subgroups (complete, partial, and no recovery) of ISSNHL. The initial I/C(amplitude) on affected-ear stimulation strongly correlated with the hearing level of final stage in ISSNHL. However, there was no prognostic effect of hemispheric asymmetry pattern for the 12-month hearing improvement. The heterogeneity between neuromagnetic index and hearing levels possibly echoed different pathogeneses of ISSNHL. Since a restored hearing status did not necessarily lead toward a normal functional organization, the dynamics of hemispheric asymmetry could actually index a central resilient reorganization in the brain for sound processing in ISSNHL. Our finding showed not only a clinically relevant measure to predict final hearing of ISSNHL, but also a linkage between central plasticity and cochlear lesion. This finding suggests a new perspective, and perhaps new interventions, to diagnose and treat unilateral ISSNHL.

  18. Early Postimplant Speech Perception and Language Skills Predict Long-Term Language and Neurocognitive Outcomes Following Pediatric Cochlear Implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Cynthia R; Kronenberger, William G; Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B

    2017-08-16

    We sought to determine whether speech perception and language skills measured early after cochlear implantation in children who are deaf, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language skills, predict long-term speech perception, language, and neurocognitive outcomes. Thirty-six long-term users of cochlear implants, implanted at an average age of 3.4 years, completed measures of speech perception, language, and executive functioning an average of 14.4 years postimplantation. Speech perception and language skills measured in the 1st and 2nd years postimplantation and open-set word recognition measured in the 3rd and 4th years postimplantation were obtained from a research database in order to assess predictive relations with long-term outcomes. Speech perception and language skills at 6 and 18 months postimplantation were correlated with long-term outcomes for language, verbal working memory, and parent-reported executive functioning. Open-set word recognition was correlated with early speech perception and language skills and long-term speech perception and language outcomes. Hierarchical regressions showed that early speech perception and language skills at 6 months postimplantation and growth in these skills from 6 to 18 months both accounted for substantial variance in long-term outcomes for language and verbal working memory that was not explained by conventional demographic and hearing factors. Speech perception and language skills measured very early postimplantation, and early postimplant growth in speech perception and language, may be clinically relevant markers of long-term language and neurocognitive outcomes in users of cochlear implants. https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.5216200.

  19. Temperature effect on hydrocarbon deposition on molybdenum mirrors under ITER-relevant long-term plasma operation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rapp, J.; van Rooij, G. J.; Litnovsky, A.; Marot, L.; De Temmerman, G.; Westerhout, J.; Zoethout, E.

    2009-01-01

    Optical diagnostics in ITER will rely on mirrors near the plasma and the deterioration of the reflectivity is a concern. The effect of temperature on the deposition efficiency of hydrocarbons under long-term operation conditions similar to ITER was investigated in the linear plasma generator

  20. PKA and PKC Are Required for Long-Term but Not Short-Term in Vivo Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Maximilian; Green, Charity L.; Lyons, Lisa C.

    2011-01-01

    We investigated the involvement of PKA and PKC signaling in a negatively reinforced operant learning paradigm in "Aplysia", learning that food is inedible (LFI). In vivo injection of PKA or PKC inhibitors blocked long-term LFI memory formation. Moreover, a persistent phase of PKA activity, although not PKC activity, was necessary for long-term…

  1. Temperature effect on hydrocarbon deposition on molybdenum mirrors under ITER-relevant long-term plasma operation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rapp, J.; van Rooij, G. J.; Litnovsky, A.; Marot, L.; De Temmerman, G.; Westerhout, J.; Zoethout, E.

    2009-01-01

    Optical diagnostics in ITER will rely on mirrors near the plasma and the deterioration of the reflectivity is a concern. The effect of temperature on the deposition efficiency of hydrocarbons under long-term operation conditions similar to ITER was investigated in the linear plasma generator Pilot-P

  2. PKA and PKC Are Required for Long-Term but Not Short-Term in Vivo Operant Memory in "Aplysia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Maximilian; Green, Charity L.; Lyons, Lisa C.

    2011-01-01

    We investigated the involvement of PKA and PKC signaling in a negatively reinforced operant learning paradigm in "Aplysia", learning that food is inedible (LFI). In vivo injection of PKA or PKC inhibitors blocked long-term LFI memory formation. Moreover, a persistent phase of PKA activity, although not PKC activity, was necessary for long-term…

  3. Lightning climatology over Jakarta, Indonesia, based on long-term surface operational, satellite, and campaign observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Shuichi; Wu, Peiming; Yamanaka, Manabu D.; Hattori, Miki; Hamada, Jun-Ichi; Arbain, Ardhi A.; Lestari, Sopia; Sulistyowati, Reni; Syamsudin, Fadli

    2016-04-01

    Lightning frequency over Indonesian Maritime Continent (MC) is quite high (Petersen and Rutledge 2001, Christian et al. 2003, Takayabu 2006, etc). In particular, Bogor (south of Jakarta, west Jawa) had 322 days of lightning in one year (Guinness Book in 1988). Lightning causes serious damage on nature and society over the MC; forest fore, power outage, inrush/surge currents on many kinds of electronics. Lightning climatology and meso-scale characteristics of thunderstorm over the MC, in particular over Jakarta, where social damage is quite serious, were examined. We made Statistical analysis of lightning and thunderstorm based on TRMM Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) together with long-term operational surface observation data (SYNOP) in terms of diurnal, intraseasonal, monsoonal, and interannual variations. In addition, we carried out a campaign observation in February 2015 in Bogor to obtain meso-scale structure and dynamics of thunderstorm over Jakarta to focus on graupel and other ice phase particles inside by using an X-band dual-polarimetric (DP) radar. Recently, Virts et al. (2013a, b) showed comprehensive lightning climatology based on the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). However, they also reported problems with its detection efficiency (< 10%) and small sampling frequency (< 0.1% of the time fly over tropics) by satellites. Therefore, we firstly examine in situ lightning data based on SYNOP observed by the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) because lightning is quite local and sporadic phenomena. We've started to analyze lightning characteristics over Jakarta region based on SYNOP as the ground truth data and GSMaP. Variability of lightning frequency around Jakarta was affected much by local conditions, e.g., topography (elevation) and proximity to the coastline. We confirmed the lightning frequency and its diurnal variation around Jakarta were much

  4. Nuclear Waste Disposal and Strategies for Predicting Long-Term Performance of Material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wicks, G G

    2001-03-28

    Ceramics have been an important part of the nuclear community for many years. On December 2, 1942, an historic event occurred under the West Stands of Stagg Field, at the University of Chicago. Man initiated his first self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction and controlled it. The impact of this event on civilization is considered by many as monumental and compared by some to other significant events in history, such as the invention of the steam engine and the manufacturing of the first automobile. Making this event possible and the successful operation of this first man-made nuclear reactor, was the use of forty tons of UO2. The use of natural or enriched UO2 is still used today as a nuclear fuel in many nuclear power plants operating world-wide. Other ceramic materials, such as 238Pu, are used for other important purposes, such as ceramic fuels for space exploration to provide electrical power to operate instruments on board spacecrafts. Radioisotopic Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are used to supply electrical power and consist of a nuclear heat source and converter to transform heat energy from radioactive decay into electrical power, thus providing reliable and relatively uniform power over the very long lifetime of a mission. These sources have been used in the Galileo spacecraft orbiting Jupiter and for scientific investigations of Saturn with the Cassini spacecraft. Still another very important series of applications using the unique properties of ceramics in the nuclear field, are as immobilization matrices for management of some of the most hazardous wastes known to man. For example, in long-term management of radioactive and hazardous wastes, glass matrices are currently in production immobilizing high-level radioactive materials, and cementious forms have also been produced to incorporate low level wastes. Also, as part of nuclear disarmament activities, assemblages of crystalline phases are being developed for immobilizing weapons grade plutonium, to

  5. Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

    2012-06-01

    Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed.

  6. Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutov, Dmitri; Peliz, Álvaro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Prieto, Laura; Ruiz, Javier; García-Lafuente, Jesus

    2014-03-01

    Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of

  7. Using Forecasting to Predict Long-Term Resource Utilization for Web Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoas, Daniel W.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers have spent years understanding resource utilization to improve scheduling, load balancing, and system management through short-term prediction of resource utilization. Early research focused primarily on single operating systems; later, interest shifted to distributed systems and, finally, into web services. In each case researchers…

  8. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  9. Health-related quality of life predicts long-term survival in patients with peripheral artery disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Issa, Samson M; Hoeks, Sanne E; Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M;

    2010-01-01

    We examined whether health-related quality of life (HRQoL) predicts long-term survival in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) independent of established prognostic risk factors. In 2004, data on 711 consecutive patients with PAD undergoing vascular surgery were collected from 11 hospita...

  10. Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

  11. Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine;

    2009-01-01

    sorption and first-order degradation kinetics as recommended in the European Union pesticide authorization procedure, MACRO was unable to accurately simulate the long-term fate of metribuzin and diketometribuzin; the concentrations in the soil were underestimated by many orders of magnitude. By introducing...

  12. Long-Term Characterization of 6H-SiC Transistor Integrated Circuit Technology Operating at 500 C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neudeck, Philip G.; Spry, David J.; Chen, Liang-Yu; Chang, Carl W.; Beheim, Glenn M.; Okojie, Robert S.; Evans, Laura J.; Meredith Roger D.; Ferrier, Terry L.; Krasowski, Michael J.; Prokop, Norman F.

    2008-01-01

    NASA has been developing very high temperature semiconductor integrated circuits for use in the hot sections of aircraft engines and for Venus exploration. This paper reports on long-term 500 C electrical operation of prototype 6H-SiC integrated circuits based on epitaxial 6H-SiC junction field effect transistors (JFETs). As of this writing, some devices have surpassed 4000 hours of continuous 500 C electrical operation in oxidizing air atmosphere with minimal change in relevant electrical parameters.

  13. Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Voisin, N.; Castelletti, A.; Pianosi, F.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2016-06-01

    We present a forecast-based adaptive management framework for water supply reservoirs and evaluate the contribution of long-term inflow forecasts to reservoir operations. Our framework is developed for snow-dominated river basins that demonstrate large gaps in forecast skill between seasonal and inter-annual time horizons. We quantify and bound the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual forecast components to optimal, adaptive reservoir operation. The framework uses an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to generate retrospective, one-year-long streamflow forecasts based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. We determine the optimal sequence of daily release decisions using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization scheme. We then assess the forecast value by comparing system performance based on the ESP forecasts with the performances based on climatology and perfect forecasts. We distinguish among the relative contributions of the seasonal component of the forecast versus the inter-annual component by evaluating system performance based on hybrid forecasts, which are designed to isolate the two contributions. As an illustration, we first apply the forecast-based adaptive management framework to a specific case study, i.e., Oroville Reservoir in California, and we then modify the characteristics of the reservoir and the demand to demonstrate the transferability of the findings to other reservoir systems. Results from numerical experiments show that, on average, the overall ESP value in informing reservoir operation is 35% less than the perfect forecast value and the inter-annual component of the ESP forecast contributes 20-60% of the total forecast value.

  14. Daily optimized model for long-term operation of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Cascade Power Stations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the step-by-step genetic algorithm based on artificial intelligence guidance and builds a long-term daily optimized operating model for the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Hydropower Complex with single generating set as the based operating unit.Actual operating data from 2004to 2006 are used to verify the model,and results show that the simulation accuracy determined by measuring the total amount of cascade power generation reaches 99.66%.Statistic hydrological data of normal years and actual data of three years of 2004-2006 are respectively used to perform an optimized prediction of the power generation process and benefits in future when the water stored in the TGP Reservoir reaches 175 m level and power generation benefits under different operation modes,such as delayed subsiding water level,advance water storage,and adopting of different flood-limited water levels,are forecasted.In the case of years with normal inflows,the total amount of cascade power generation running on current specifications reaches 107500 GWh per year.If the commencement of water storage after the flood season is moved forward by 20 days,the amount of power generation can be increased by 3400 GWh per year.If the limited water level in the flood season is raised by three to five meters,the amount of power generation can be increased by 1600 to 3200 GWh per year.If the commencement of water storage is moved forward while the maximum water level allowed in the flood season is raised,the amount of power generation can be increased by 6400 GWh per year.

  15. Validation of the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) pulmonary hypertension prediction model in a unique population and utility in the prediction of long-term survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cogswell, Rebecca; Kobashigawa, Erin; McGlothlin, Dana; Shaw, Robin; De Marco, Teresa

    2012-11-01

    The Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial (PAH) Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) model was designed to predict 1-year survival in patients with PAH. Multivariate prediction models need to be evaluated in cohorts distinct from the derivation set to determine external validity. In addition, limited data exist on the utility of this model in the prediction of long-term survival. REVEAL model performance was assessed to predict 1-year and 5-year outcomes, defined as survival or composite survival or freedom from lung transplant, in 140 patients with PAH. The validation cohort had a higher proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (7.9% vs 1.9%, p model to predict survival was 0.765 at 1 year and 0.712 at 5 years of follow-up. The C-index of the model to predict composite survival or freedom from lung transplant was 0.805 and 0.724 at 1 and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. Prediction by the model, however, was weakest among patients with intermediate-risk predicted survival. The REVEAL model had adequate discrimination to predict 1-year survival in this small but clinically distinct validation cohort. Although the model also had predictive ability out to 5 years, prediction was limited among patients of intermediate risk, suggesting our prediction methods can still be improved. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawar, R.

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management

  17. Predictable Unpredictability: the Problem with Basing Medicare Policy on Long-Term Financial Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glied, Sherry; Zaylor, Abigail

    2015-07-01

    The authors assess how Medicare financing and projections of future costs have changed since 2000. They also assess the impact of legislative reforms on the sources and levels of financing and compare cost forecasts made at different times. Although the aging U.S. population and rising health care costs are expected to increase the share of gross domestic product devoted to Medicare, changes made in the program over the past decade have helped stabilize Medicare's financial outlook--even as benefits have been expanded. Long-term forecasting uncertainty should make policymakers and beneficiaries wary of dramatic changes to the program in the near term that are intended to alter its long-term forecast: the range of error associated with cost forecasts rises as the forecast window lengthens. Instead, policymakers should focus on the immediate policy window, taking steps to reduce the current burden of Medicare costs by containing spending today.

  18. Long-Term Prediction of Large Earthquakes: When Does Quasi-Periodic Behavior Occur?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sykes, L. R.

    2003-12-01

    every great earthquake. The 2002 Working Group on large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region followed Ellsworth et al. (1999) in adopting much larger values of CV for several critical fault segments and underestimating their likelihood of rupture in the next 30 years. The Working Group also gives considerable weight to a Poisson model, which is in conflict with both renewal processes involving slow stress accumulation and with values of CV near 0.2. The failure of the Parkfield prediction has greatly influenced views in the U.S. about long-term forecasts. The model of the repeated breaking of a single asperity is incorrect since past Parkfield shocks of about magnitude 6 likely did not rupture the same part of the San Andreas fault.

  19. The long-term outcome of patients treated operatively and non-operatively for scoliosis deformity secondary to spina bifida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoshbin, A; Vivas, L; Law, P W; Stephens, D; Davis, A M; Howard, A; Jarvis, J G; Wright, J G

    2014-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term outcome of adults with spina bifida cystica (SBC) who had been treated either operatively or non-operatively for scoliosis during childhood. We reviewed 45 patients with a SBC scoliosis (Cobb angle ≥ 50º) who had been treated at one of two children's hospitals between 1991 and 2007. Of these, 34 (75.6%) had been treated operatively and 11 (24.4%) non-operatively. After a mean follow-up of 14.1 years (standard deviation (sd) 4.3) clinical, radiological and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) outcomes were evaluated using the Spina Bifida Spine Questionnaire (SBSQ) and the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36). Although patients in the two groups were demographically similar, those who had undergone surgery had a larger mean Cobb angle (88.0º (sd 20.5; 50.0 to 122.0) ; : versus 65.7º (sd 22.0; 51.0 to 115.0); p < 0.01) and a larger mean clavicle-rib intersection difference (12.3 mm; (sd 8.5; 1 to 37); versus 4.1 mm, (sd 5.9; 0 to 16); p = 0.01) than those treated non-operatively. Both groups were statistically similar at follow-up with respect to walking capacity, neurological motor level, sitting balance and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) outcomes. Spinal fusion in SBC scoliosis corrects coronal deformity and stops progression of the curve but has no clear effect on HRQOL. ©2014 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  20. Usefulness of diabetes mellitus to predict long-term outcomes in patients with unstable angina pectoris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkouh, Michael E; Aneja, Ashish; Reeder, Guy S; Smars, Peter A; Lennon, Ryan J; Wiste, Heather J; Traverse, Kay; Razzouk, Louai; Basu, Ananda; Holmes, David R; Mathew, Verghese

    2009-08-15

    The objective of this study was to determine short- and long-term cardiovascular outcomes in unselected patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) with acute ischemic chest pain (AICP). In patients with DM presenting to the emergency department with AICP, short-term cardiovascular outcomes remain discordant between trials and registries, whereas long-term outcomes are not well-described. A consecutive cohort of all residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, presenting with AICP from January 1, 1985, to December 31, 1992, was followed for a median duration of 16.6 years. The primary outcome was long-term all-cause mortality. Other outcomes included a composite of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and revascularization (major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events [MACCEs]) as well as heart failure (HF) events at 30 days and at a median of 7.3 years, respectively. Of the 2,271 eligible patients, 336 (14.8%) were classified with DM. The crude 30-day MACCE rate was 10.1% in patients with DM and 6.1% in those without DM (p = 0.007). HF events were more common in patients with DM at 30 days (9.8% vs 3.1%, p <0.001). At 7.3 years, patients with DM were more likely to experience MACCEs and HF events than those without DM (71.2% vs 45.1%, unadjusted hazard ratio 2.15%, 95% confidence interval 1.87 to 2.48, p <0.001, and 45.1% vs 18.2%, p <0.001, respectively). Over the follow-up period, 272 patients with DM (81.9%) died, compared with 936 (49.2%) without DM (p <0.001). In conclusion, DM is associated with a higher short-term risk for MACCEs and HF and a higher long-term risk for mortality in unselected patients with AICP. DM should be included as a high-risk variable in national acute coronary syndrome guidelines.

  1. Long-term settlement prediction of high-speed railway bridge pile foundation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨奇; 冷伍明; 张升; 聂如松; 魏丽敏; 赵春彦; 刘维正

    2014-01-01

    The process and characteristics of loading on high-speed railway bridge pile foundation were firstly obtained by means of field research and analysis, and the corresponding loading function was presented. One-dimensional consolidation equation of elastic multilayered soils was then established with single drainage or double drainages under multilevel loading. Moreover, the formulas for calculating effective stress and settlement were derived from the Laplace numerical inversion transform. The three-dimensional composite analysis method of bridge pile group was improved, where the actual load conditions of pile foundation could be simulated, and the consolidation characteristics of soil layers beneath pile were also taken into account. Eventually, a corresponding program named LTPGS was developed to improve the calculation efficiency. The comparison between long-term settlement obtained from the proposed method and the in-situ measurements of pile foundation was illustrated, and a close agreement is obtained. The error between computed and measured results is less than 1 mm, and it gradually reduces with time. It is shown that the proposed method can effectively simulate the long-term settlement of pile foundation and program LTPGS can provide a reliable estimation.

  2. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

  3. Identifying predictive factors for long-term complications following button battery impactions: A case series and literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliason, Michael J; Melzer, Jonathan M; Winters, Jessica R; Gallagher, Thomas Q

    2016-08-01

    To complement a case series review of button battery impactions managed at our single military tertiary care center with a thorough literature review of laboratory research and clinical cases to develop a protocol to optimize patient care. Specifically, to identify predictive factors of long-term complications which can be used by the pediatric otolaryngologist to guide patient management after button battery impactions. A retrospective review of the Department of Defense's electronic medical record systems was conducted to identify patients with button battery ingestions and then characterize their treatment course. A thorough literature review complemented the lessons learned to identify potentially predictive clinical measures for long-term complications. Eight patients were identified as being treated for button battery impaction in the aerodigestive tract with two sustaining long-term complications. The median age of the patients treated was 33 months old and the median estimated time of impaction in the aerodigestive tract prior to removal was 10.5 h. Time of impaction, anatomic direction of the battery's negative pole, and identifying specific battery parameters were identified as factors that may be employed to predict sequelae. Based on case reviews, advancements in battery manufacturing, and laboratory research, there are distinct clinical factors that should be assessed at the time of initial therapy to guide follow-up management to minimize potential catastrophic sequelae of button battery ingestion. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  4. Surgical indication for functional tricuspid regurgitation at initial operation: judging from long term outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzoli, Alberto; Elisabetta, Lapenna; Vicentini, Luca; Alfieri, Ottavio; De Bonis, Michele

    2016-09-01

    The assessment and management of tricuspid valve disease have evolved substantially during the past several years. Whereas tricuspid stenosis is uncommon, tricuspid regurgitation is frequently encountered and it is most often secondary due to annular dilatation and leaflet tethering from right ventricular remodelling. The indications for tricuspid valve surgery to treat tricuspid regurgitation are several and mainly related to the underlying disease, to the severity of insufficiency and to the right ventricular function. Surgical tricuspid repair has been avoided for years, because of the misleading concept that tricuspid regurgitation should disappear once the primary left-sided problem has been eliminated. Instead, during the last decade, many investigators have reported evidence in favor of a more aggressive surgical approach to functional tricuspid regurgitation, recognising the risk of progressive tricuspid insufficiency in patients with moderate or lesser degrees of tricuspid regurgitation and tricuspid annular dilatation. This concept, along with the long-term outcomes of principal surgical repair techniques are reported and discussed. Last, novel transcatheter therapies have begun to emerge for the treatment of severe tricuspid regurgitation in high-risk patients. Hence, very preliminary pre-clinical and clinical experiences are illustrated. The scope of this review is to explore the anatomic basis, the pathophysiology, the outcomes and the new insights in the management of functional tricuspid regurgitation.

  5. Retinal vascular fractals predict long-term microvascular complications in type 1 diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broe, Rebecca; Rasmussen, Malin L; Frydkjaer-Olsen, Ulrik

    2014-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Fractal analysis of the retinal vasculature provides a global measure of the complexity and density of retinal vessels summarised as a single variable: the fractal dimension. We investigated fractal dimensions as long-term predictors of microvasculopathy in type 1 diabetes. METHODS......: We included 180 patients with type 1 diabetes in a 16 year follow-up study. In baseline retinal photographs (from 1995), all vessels in a zone 0.5-2.0 disc diameters from the disc margin were traced using Singapore Institute Vessel Assessment-Fractal image analysis software. Artefacts were removed...... by a certified grader, and fractal dimensions were calculated using the box-counting method. At follow-up (in 2011), diabetic neuropathy, nephropathy and proliferative retinopathy were assessed and related to baseline fractal dimensions in multiple regressions adjusted for sex and baseline age, diabetes duration...

  6. Long-term predictions of the energy development - possibilities and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanevce Gligor

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the possibilities, disadvantages and benefits of long-term planning of energy development, are analysed. The factors influencing the development of energy and the factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting of the future development of energy are presented. The uncertainties that make the differences in modelling on a global scale, as well as the uncertainties that make the differences in modelling of the energy development of the Republic of Macedonia are also presented. Sensitivity analysis of the influence of different factors on the development of energy in the Republic of Macedonia was carried out. For those purposes the energy development of the Republic of Macedonia for the period up to 2035 year is calculated by using MARKAL model. The main features of the MARKAL model are also presented.

  7. Exome Sequencing and Prediction of Long-Term Kidney Allograft Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesnard, Laurent; Muthukumar, Thangamani; Burbach, Maren; Li, Carol; Shang, Huimin; Dadhania, Darshana; Lee, John R.; Xiang, Jenny; Suberbielle, Caroline; Carmagnat, Maryvonnick; Ouali, Nacera; Rondeau, Eric; Abecassis, Michael M.; Suthanthiran, Manikkam

    2016-01-01

    Current strategies to improve graft outcome following kidney transplantation consider information at the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) loci. Cell surface antigens, in addition to HLA, may serve as the stimuli as well as the targets for the anti-allograft immune response and influence long-term graft outcomes. We therefore performed exome sequencing of DNA from kidney graft recipients and their living donors and estimated all possible cell surface antigens mismatches for a given donor/recipient pair by computing the number of amino acid mismatches in trans-membrane proteins. We designated this tally as the allogenomics mismatch score (AMS). We examined the association between the AMS and post-transplant estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using mixed models, considering transplants from three independent cohorts (a total of 53 donor-recipient pairs, 106 exomes, and 239 eGFR measurements). We found that the AMS has a significant effect on eGFR (mixed model, effect size across the entire range of the score: -19.4 [-37.7, -1.1], P = 0.0042, χ2 = 8.1919, d.f. = 1) that is independent of the HLA-A, B, DR matching, donor age, and time post-transplantation. The AMS effect is consistent across the three independent cohorts studied and similar to the strong effect size of donor age. Taken together, these results show that the AMS, a novel tool to quantify amino acid mismatches in trans-membrane proteins in individual donor/recipient pair, is a strong, robust predictor of long-term graft function in kidney transplant recipients. PMID:27684477

  8. Worldwide impact of aerosol’s time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Santos-Alamillos, Francisco J.; Pozo-Vázquez, David

    2016-01-01

    Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis. PMID:27507711

  9. A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Zhongmin; Li, Yujie; Hu, Yiming; Li, Binquan; Wang, Jun

    2017-06-01

    Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.

  10. Long-Term Stability of Underground Operated CZT Detectors Based on the Analysis of Intrinsic $^{113}$Cd \\beta$^{-}$-Decay

    CERN Document Server

    Ebert, J; Gehre, D; Hagner, C; Heidrich, N; Klingenberg, R; Kroeninger, K; Nitsch, C; Oldorf, C; Quante, T; Rajek, S; Rebber, H; Rohatsch, K; Tebruegge, J; Temminghoff, R; Theinert, R; Timm, J; Wonsak, B; Zatschler, S; Zuber, K

    2015-01-01

    The COBRA collaboration operates a demonstrator setup at the underground facility LNGS (Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, located in Italy) to prove the technological capabilities of this concept for the search for neutrinoless double beta-decay. The setup consists of 64 $(1\\times\\!1\\times\\!1)$ cm$^{3}$ CZT detectors in CPG configuration. One purpose of this demonstrator is to test if reliable long-term operation of CZT-CPG detectors in such a setup is possible. The demonstrator has been operated under ultra low-background conditions since more than three years and collected data corresponding to an exposure of 218 kg$\\cdot$days. The presented study focuses on the long-term stability of CZT detectors by analyzing the intrinsic, fourfold forbidden non-unique $^{113}$Cd single beta-decay. It can be shown that CZT detectors can be operated stably for long periods of time and that the $^{113}$Cd single beta-decay can be used as an internal monitor of the detector performance during the runtime of the experimen...

  11. Severe Spastic Contractures and Diabetes Mellitus Independently Predict Subsequent Minimal Trauma Fractures Among Long-Term Care Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Kuen; Leung, Man Fuk; Kwan, Chi Wai; Kwan, Joseph

    2016-11-01

    The study aimed to examine the epidemiology of hypertonic contractures and its relationship with minimal trauma fracture (MTF), and to determine the incidence and predictors of (MTF) in long-term care residents. This was a longitudinal cohort study of prospectively collected data. Participants were followed from March 2007 to March 2016 or until death. A 300-bed long-term care hospital in Hong Kong. All long-term care residents who were in need of continuous medical and nursing care for their activities of daily living. Information on patients' demographic data, severe contracture defined as a decrease of 50% or more of the normal passive range of joint movement of the joint, and severe limb spasticity defined by the Modified Ashworth Scale higher than grade 3, medical comorbidities, functional status, cognitive status, nutritional status including body mass index and serum albumin, past history of fractures, were evaluated as potential risk factors for subsequent MTF. Three hundred ninety-six residents [148 males, mean ± standard deviation (SD), age = 79 ± 16 years] were included for analysis. The presence of severe contracture was highly prevalent among the study population: 91% of residents had at least 1 severe contracture, and 41% of residents had severe contractures involving all 4 limbs. Moreover, there were a significant proportion of residents who had severe limb spasticity with the elbow flexors (32.4%) and knee flexors (33.9%) being the most commonly involved muscles. Twelve residents (3%) suffered from subsequent MTF over a median follow-up of 33 (SD = 30) months. Seven out of these 12 residents died during the follow-up period, with a mean survival of 17.8 months (SD = 12.6) after the fracture event. The following 2 factors were found to independently predict subsequent MTF in a multivariate Cox regression: bilateral severe spastic knee contractures (hazard ratio = 16.5, P contractures are common morbidities in long-term care residents

  12. Use of short-term toxicity data for prediction of long-term health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, W.R.; Ohanian, E.V.

    1988-01-01

    Under the Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments of 1986, the US Environmental Protection Agency determines Maximum Contaminant Level Goals (MCLGs) and enforceable Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) or provides lifetime health advisories (HAs) in the absence of regulatory standards. The critical value for calculation of the lifetime level is the reference dose (RfD). The RfD is an estimate of a lifetime dose which is likely to be without significant risk to human populations. The RfD is determined by dividing the no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) or the lowest-observed-adverse-effect level (LOAEL) by an uncertainty factor (UF). The NOAEL or LOAEL is determined from toxicological or epidemiological studies. For many chemicals, human toxicological or epidemiological data are not available. Chronic mammalian studies are sometimes unavailable. Faced with the need for providing guidance for the increasing number of chemicals threatening our drinking water sources, this paper considers the possibility of providing provisional RfDs using data from toxicological studies of less than ninety days duration. The current UF approach is reviewed along with some proposed mathematical models for extrapolation of NOAELs from dose-response data. The current UF approach to developing the RfD is protective and conservative. More research is needed on the relationship of short- and long-term toxicity data to improve our current approach.

  13. Long term performance of gas-insulated switchgear operating under tropical conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pharmatrisanti, A.

    2012-01-01

    For the past two decades, electricity utilities have struggled to provide high quality electrical power to their customers while keeping on spending effectively the expenses for operating and maintaining the power system. Unfortunately, under tropical conditions, operation circumstances affect the e

  14. Novel FTLRNN with Gamma Memory for Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions of Chaotic Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay L. Badjate

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Multistep ahead prediction of a chaotic time series is a difficult task that has attracted increasing interest in the recent years. The interest in this work is the development of nonlinear neural network models for the purpose of building multistep chaotic time series prediction. In the literature there is a wide range of different approaches but their success depends on the predicting performance of the individual methods. Also the most popular neural models are based on the statistical and traditional feed forward neural networks. But it is seen that this kind of neural model may present some disadvantages when long-term prediction is required. In this paper focused time-lagged recurrent neural network (FTLRNN model with gamma memory is developed for different prediction horizons. It is observed that this predictor performs remarkably well for short-term predictions as well as medium-term predictions. For coupled partial differential equations generated chaotic time series such as Mackey Glass and Duffing, FTLRNN-based predictor performs consistently well for different depths of predictions ranging from short term to long term, with only slight deterioration after k is increased beyond 50. For real-world highly complex and nonstationary time series like Sunspots and Laser, though the proposed predictor does perform reasonably for short term and medium-term predictions, its prediction ability drops for long term ahead prediction. However, still this is the best possible prediction results considering the facts that these are nonstationary time series. As a matter of fact, no other NN configuration can match the performance of FTLRNN model. The authors experimented the performance of this FTLRNN model on predicting the dynamic behavior of typical Chaotic Mackey-Glass time series, Duffing time series, and two real-time chaotic time series such as monthly sunspots and laser. Static multi layer perceptron (MLP model is also attempted and compared

  15. Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students, the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variability describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. The sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.

  16. Predicting long-term outcomes for children affected by HIV and AIDS: perspectives from the scientific study of children's development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Alan; Desmond, Christopher; Garbarino, James; Van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Barbarin, Oscar; Black, Maureen M; Stein, Aryeh D; Hillis, Susan D; Kalichman, Seth C; Mercy, James A; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Rapa, Elizabeth; Saul, Janet R; Dobrova-Krol, Natasha A; Richter, Linda M

    2014-07-01

    The immediate and short-term consequences of adult HIV for affected children are well documented. Little research has examined the long-term implications of childhood adversity stemming from caregiver HIV infection. Through overviews provided by experts in the field, together with an iterative process of consultation and refinement, we have extracted insights from the broader field of child development of relevance to predicting the long-term consequences to children affected by HIV and AIDS. We focus on what is known about the impact of adversities similar to those experienced by HIV-affected children, and for which there is longitudinal evidence. Cautioning that findings are not directly transferable across children or contexts, we examine findings from the study of parental death, divorce, poor parental mental health, institutionalization, undernutrition, and exposure to violence. Regardless of the type of adversity, the majority of children manifest resilience and do not experience any long-term negative consequences. However, a significant minority do and these children experience not one, but multiple problems, which frequently endure over time in the absence of support and opportunities for recovery. As a result, they are highly likely to suffer numerous and enduring impacts. These insights suggest a new strategic approach to interventions for children affected by HIV and AIDS, one that effectively combines a universal lattice of protection with intensive intervention targeted to selected children and families.

  17. Baseline circulating ghrelin does not predict weight regain neither maintenance of weight loss after gastric bypass at long term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellitero, Silvia; Pérez-Romero, Noelia; Martínez, Eva; Granada, María L; Moreno, Pau; Balibrea, Jose M; Tarascó, Jordi; Lucas, Anna; Puig-Domingo, Manel

    2015-08-01

    Predictors of weight loss (WL) or weight regain (WR) after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) are not established. The aim of this study was to analyze the usefulness of some baseline peptides (leptin, insulin, and ghrelin) as biomarkers of WL and WR in morbid obese patients after RYGBP at long term. Seventy-six morbid obese (47 women, age 41.6 ± 9.6 years, body mass index [BMI] 52.1 ± 8 kg/m(2)) patients were evaluated at baseline and at 1, 2, and 6 years after surgery. Excess body weight loss after 6 years was of 63.9%. Age, BMI, and studied hormones at baseline or their changes over time did not predict long-term excess body weight loss. WR greater than 10% was observed in 36.8% of patients between 2 and 6 years of follow-up, but it was not correlated with BMI, age, or baseline peptide concentrations. Measurement of ghrelin, insulin, and leptin before surgery is not useful as predictors of WL or WR at long term after RYGBP. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Lei [Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, CO 80401, USA; Gonder, Jeffrey [Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, CO 80401, USA; Lin, Lei [Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA

    2017-01-01

    With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variability describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. The sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.

  19. Startup and long term operation of enhanced biological phosphorus removal in continuous-flow reactor with granules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dong; Lv, Yufeng; Zeng, Huiping; Zhang, Jie

    2016-07-01

    The startup and long term operation of enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) in a continuous-flow reactor (CFR) with granules were investigated in this study. Through reducing the settling time from 9min to 3min gradually, the startup of EBPR in a CFR with granules was successfully realized in 16days. Under continuous-flow operation, the granules with good phosphorus and COD removal performance were stably operated for more than 6months. And the granules were characterized with particle size of around 960μm, loose structure and good settling ability. During the startup phase, polysaccharides (PS) was secreted excessively by microorganisms to resist the influence from the variation of operational mode. Results of relative quantitative PCR indicated that granules dominated by polyphosphate-accumulating organisms (PAOs) were easier accumulated in the CFR because more excellent settling ability was needed in the system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Brain atrophy and lesion load predict long term disability in multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Popescu, Veronica; Agosta, Federica; Hulst, Hanneke E

    2013-01-01

    To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS).......To determine whether brain atrophy and lesion volumes predict subsequent 10 year clinical evolution in multiple sclerosis (MS)....

  1. The Prediction of Long-Term Thermal Aging in Cast Austenitic Stainless Steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byun, Thak Sang; Yang, Ying; Lach, Timothy G.

    2017-02-15

    Cast austenitic stainless steel (CASS) materials are extensively used for many massive primary coolant system components of light water reactors (LWRs) including coolant piping, valve bodies, pump casings, and piping elbows. Many of these components are operated in complex and persistently damaging environments of elevated temperature, high pressure, corrosive environment, and sometimes radiation for long periods of time. Since a large number of CASS components are installed in every nuclear power plant and replacing such massive components is prohibitively expensive, any significant degradation in mechanical properties that affects structural integrity, cracking resistance in particular, of CASS components will raise a serious concern on the performance of entire power plant. The CASS materials for nuclear components are highly corrosion-resistant Fe-Cr-Ni alloys with 300 series stainless steel compositions and mostly austenite (γ)–ferrite (δ) duplex structures, which result from the casting processes consisting of alloy melting and pouring or injecting liquid metal into a static or spinning mold. Although the commonly used static and centrifugal casting processes enable the fabrication of massive components with proper resistance to environmental attacks, the alloying and microstructural conditions are not highly controllable in actual fabrication, especially in the casting processes of massive components. In the corrosion-resistant Fe-Cr-Ni alloy system, the minor phase (i.e., the δ-ferrite phase) is inevitably formed during the casting process, and is in a non-equilibrium state subject to detrimental changes during exposure to elevated temperature and/or radiation. In general, relatively few critical degradation modes are expected within the current design lifetime of 40 years, given that the CASS components have been processed properly. It has been well known, however, that both the thermal aging and the neutron irradiation can cause degradation of static

  2. Nature of nonlinear imprint in ferroelectric films and long-term prediction of polarization loss in ferroelectric memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagantsev, Alexander K.; Stolichnov, Igor; Setter, Nava; Cross, Jeffrey S.

    2004-12-01

    The phenomenon of polarization imprint consisting of the development of a preferential polarization state in ferroelectric films is known as one of the major issues impacting the development of high density ferroelectric memories. According to the commonly accepted scenario, the imprint is related to the charge injection and charge accumulation in the nearby-electrode passive layer of the ferroelectric film. Recent studies demonstrated that the coercive voltage shift induced by the imprint exhibits a nonlinear time dependence in a logarithmic scale. This result was interpreted as the presence of two different imprint mechanisms characterized by different activation energies. In the present work, an analytical theory of the injection scenario of imprint is developed. The charge accumulation at the interface is shown to provoke a voltage offset and polarization loss which are nonlinearly dependent on the time in logarithmic scale. This result is obtained for different charge injection mechanisms including Schottky, Pool-Frenkel, and tunneling scenarios. Thus, it is shown that a single imprint mechanism can be responsible for a nolinear (in logarithmic scale) time dependence of the voltage offset and polarization loss. Additionally, the temperature dependence of the logarithmic rate of imprint is shown to be nonexponential. The developed model ties together the time and temperature dependences of imprint. For the experimental verification of the model a study of imprint has been performed on (111) Pb(Zr ,Ti)O3 film capacitors with temperatures ranging from 25 to 150°C and exposure times up to 1000h. It has been found that the theory developed adequately describes the obtained experimental data. Based upon the theoretical and experimental results a test for ferroelectric memories is proposed, which enables the long-term prediction of polarization loss caused by imprint for a wide temperature range and for different operating voltages.

  3. Dominant Frequency Increase Rate Predicts Transition from Paroxysmal to Long-Term Persistent Atrial Fibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Raphael P.; Kaur, Kuljeet; Hwang, Elliot; Ramirez, Rafael J.; Willis, B. Cicero; Filgueiras-Rama, David; Ennis, Steven R.; Takemoto, Yoshio; Ponce-Balbuena, Daniela; Zarzoso, Manuel; O’Connell, Ryan P.; Musa, Hassan; Guerrero-Serna, Guadalupe; Avula, Uma Mahesh R.; Swartz, Michael F.; Bhushal, Sandesh; Deo, Makarand; Pandit, Sandeep V.; Berenfeld, Omer; Jalife, José

    2014-01-01

    Background Little is known about the mechanisms underlying the transition from paroxysmal to persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). In an ovine model of long-standing persistent AF (LS-PAF) we tested the hypothesis that the rate of electrical and/or structural remodeling, assessed by dominant frequency (DF) changes, determines the time at which AF becomes persistent. Methods and Results Self-sustained AF was induced by atrial tachypacing. Seven sheep were sacrificed 11.5±2.3 days after the transition to persistent AF and without reversal to sinus rhythm (SR); 7 sheep were sacrificed after 341.3±16.7 days of LS-PAF. Seven sham-operated animals were in SR for 1 year. DF was monitored continuously in each group. RT-PCR, western blotting, patch-clamping and histological analyses were used to determine changes in functional ion channel expression and structural remodeling. Atrial dilatation, mitral valve regurgitation, myocyte hypertrophy, and atrial fibrosis occurred progressively and became statistically significant after the transition to persistent AF, with no evidence for left ventricular dysfunction. DF increased progressively during the paroxysmal-to-persistent AF transition and stabilized when AF became persistent. Importantly, the rate of DF increase (dDF/dt) correlated strongly with the time to persistent AF. Significant action potential duration (APD) abbreviation, secondary to functional ion channel protein expression changes (CaV1.2, NaV1.5 and KV4.2 decrease; Kir2.3 increase), was already present at the transition and persisted for one-year follow up. Conclusions In the sheep model of LS-PAF, the rate of DF increase predicts the time at which AF stabilizes and becomes persistent, reflecting changes in APD and densities of sodium, L-type calcium and inward rectifier currents. PMID:24463369

  4. Potential role of plasma myeloperoxidase level in predicting long-term outcome of acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaya, Mehmet Gungor; Yalcin, Ridvan; Okyay, Kaan; Poyraz, Fatih; Bayraktar, Nilufer; Pasaoglu, Hatice; Boyaci, Bulent; Cengel, Atiye

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the prognostic importance of plasma myeloperoxidase levels in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) at long-term follow-up, and we analyzed the correlations between plasma myeloperoxidase levels and other biochemical values. We evaluated 73 consecutive patients (56 men; mean age, 56 ± 11 yr) diagnosed with acute STEMI and 46 age- and sex-matched healthy control participants. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the median myeloperoxidase level (Group 1: plasma myeloperoxidase ≤ 68 ng/mL; and Group 2: plasma myeloperoxidase > 68 ng/mL). Patients were monitored for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), which were defined as cardiac death; reinfarction; new hospital admission for angina; heart failure; and revascularization procedures. The mean follow-up period was 25 ± 16 months. Plasma myeloperoxidase levels were higher in STEMI patients than in control participants (82 ± 34 vs 20 ± 12 ng/mL; P = 0.001). Composite MACE occurred in 12 patients with high myeloperoxidase levels (33%) and in 4 patients with low myeloperoxidase levels (11%) (P = 0.02). The incidences of nonfatal recurrent myocardial infarction and verified cardiac death were higher in the high-myeloperoxidase group. In multivariate analysis, high plasma myeloperoxidase levels were independent predictors of MACE (odds ratio = 3.843; <95% confidence interval, 1.625-6.563; P = 0.003). High plasma myeloperoxidase levels identify patients with a worse prognosis after acute STEMI at 2-year follow-up. Evaluation of plasma myeloperoxidase levels might be useful in determining patients at high risk of death and MACE who can benefit from further aggressive treatment and closer follow-up.

  5. Long-term operating characteristics of Japan’s first in-grid HTS power cable

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakano, Tetsutaro, E-mail: nakano.tetsutaro@tepco.co.jp [Tokyo Electric Power Company, 4-1 Egasaki-cho, Tsurumi-ku, Yokohama 230-8510 (Japan); Maruyama, Osamu; Honjo, Shoichi [Tokyo Electric Power Company, 4-1 Egasaki-cho, Tsurumi-ku, Yokohama 230-8510 (Japan); Watanabe, Michihiko; Masuda, Takato; Hirose, Masayuki [Sumitomo Electric Industries, Ltd., 1-1-3 Shimaya, Konohana-ku, Osaka 554-004 (Japan); Shimoda, Masahiro; Nakamura, Naoko; Yaguchi, Hiroharu; Machida, Akito [Mayekawa Mfg. Co., Ltd., 2000 Tatsuzawa, Moriya-shi, Ibaraki 302-0018 (Japan)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • The in-grid operation had continued for more than one year without serious troubles. • The LN{sub 2} temperature and pressure were controlled stably within the preset range. • No degradation of I{sub c} occurred against the designed value after in-grid operation. • The degradation rate of cooling power differed among the refrigerators. - Abstract: Tokyo Electric Power Company, Sumitomo Electric Industries, Ltd and Mayekawa Mfg. Co., Ltd have jointly conducted the first in-grid demonstration test of a high-temperature superconducting (HTS) cable in Japan, from FY2007 to FY2013. The objective of this project is to evaluate the reliability, stability and other characteristics of the system. The cable structure used in this project is the type of three-in-one cable. As a coolant, sub-cooled liquid nitrogen flows through the gap between the corrugated cryostat and the three cable cores. This structure can realize compactness and reduce heat invasion compared with three single-core HTS cables housed in separate cryostats. The cooling system consists of six refrigerators, two circulation pumps and a reservoir tank. Each refrigerator has a cooling power of 1.0 kW at 77 K, 0.8 kW at 67 K. The number of operating refrigerators is controlled so that the coolant temperature at the cable inlet is kept to preset value. The HTS cable was connected to the live electricity grid from October 29, 2012 to December 25, 2013. In-grid operation continued for more than one year without any accidental interruption of operation or other operating issues. During this time, we studied the operating performance of the HTS cable in dependence on the sub-cooled LN{sub 2} temperature.

  6. Long-term outcome of operative management of delayed acetabular fractures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Shi-wen; SUN Xu; YANG Ming-hui; LI Yu-neng; ZHAO Chun-peng; WU Hong-hua; CAO Qi-yong

    2013-01-01

    Background Surgical treatment of acetabular fracture has long been a challenging area in the field of orthopedic trauma.The aim of this research was to investigate the operative methods for delayed acetabular fractures and to assess the operation results.Methods The operative approaches,procedures,results,and complications of the delayed acetabular fractures between 1995 and 2005 were retrospectively evaluated at Beijing Jishuitan Hospital.Quality of life was assessed for each patient with the Merle d'Aubingne and Postel fracture function rating scale and the radiological result was assessed using the Matta radiological score.Results Sixty-eight cases (70 hips) were followed up with a minimal duration of five years (average of 5.8 years).Excellent functional results were observed in 10 hip joints,good results in 40,fair results in 11,and poor results in nine.The risks of poor prognosis include impact fracture or osteochondral fracture of femoral head,a time beyond 42 days from injury to operative management,and dislocation of femoral head during the injury.Some of the problems,which were observed included postoperative infection in two hips,iatrogenic sciatic nerve injury in eight hips,traumatic arthritis in 15 hips,heterotopic ossification in 17 hips,and necrosis of the femoral head in six hips.Conclusion A careful selection of operative indications for delayed acetabular fractures in combination with a proper ooerative aPProach and appropriate reduction and fixation could guarantee relatively good results.

  7. Risk Factors for Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) Predict Long-Term Treatment with Docetaxel

    OpenAIRE

    Kawahara, Takashi; Miyoshi, Yasuhide; Sekiguchi, Zenkichi; Sano, Futoshi; Hayashi, Narihiko; Teranishi, Jun-ichi; Misaki, Hiroshi; Noguchi, Kazumi; Kubota, Yoshinobu; Uemura, Hiroji

    2012-01-01

    Purpose For patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostatic cancer (mCRPC), docetaxel plus prednisone leads to superior survival and a higher response rate compared with mitoxantrone plus prednisone. We analyzed the efficacy of long-term treatment with ≥10 cycles of docetaxel, and validated the risk group classification in predicting overall survival (OS) in Japanese patients with mCRPC. Patients and Methods Fifty-two patients with mCRPC were administered 55 mg/m2 docetaxel and 8 mg d...

  8. Biofiltration of high formaldehyde loads with ozone additions in long-term operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado-Diaz, G; Arriaga, S

    2015-01-01

    Formaldehyde (FA) biofiltration was evaluated over 310 days with and without ozone addition. Without ozone, the biofilter was able to treat formaldehyde at inlet loads (ILs) lower than 40 g m(-3) h(-1), maintaining, under this condition, an average removal efficiency (RE) of 88 % for a few days before collapsing to zero. The continuous addition of ozone (90 ppbv) helped to recover the RE from zero to 98 ± 2 % and made it possible to operate at an IL of 40 g m(-3) h(-1) for long periods of operation (107 days). Furthermore, the ozone addition aided in operating the biofilter at a formaldehyde IL of up to 120 g m(-3) h(-1) values that have never before been reached. GC-mass spectrometry (MS) analysis showed that dimethoxymethane was the common compound in leachate during the performance decay. Also, the addition of ozone aided in maintaining an optimal pH in the biofilter with values between 7.5 and 8.2, due to the carbonate species formed during the ozone reactions with formaldehyde and its by-products. Thus, the pH control was confirmed and the alkalinity of the biofilter increased from 334.1 ± 100.3 to 1450 ± 127 mg CaCO3 L(-1) when ozone was added. Ozone addition diminished the exopolymeric substances (EPS) content of biofilm and biofilm thickness without affecting cell viability. Kinetic parameters suggested that the best conditions for carrying out FA biofiltration were reached under ozone addition. The addition of ozone during formaldehyde biofiltration could be a good strategy to maintain the pH and the steady state of the system under high ILs and for long periods of operation.

  9. Ex Vivo Perfusion Characteristics of Donation After Cardiac Death Kidneys Predict Long-Term Graft Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevinc, M; Stamp, S; Ling, J; Carter, N; Talbot, D; Sheerin, N

    2016-12-01

    Ex vivo perfusion is used in our unit for kidneys donated after cardiac death (DCD). Perfusion flow index (PFI), resistance, and perfusate glutathione S-transferase (GST) can be measured to assess graft viability. We assessed whether measurements taken during perfusion could predict long-term outcome after transplantation. All DCD kidney transplants performed from 2002 to 2014 were included in this study. The exclusion criteria were: incomplete data, kidneys not machine perfused, kidneys perfused in continuous mode, and dual transplantation. There were 155 kidney transplantations included in the final analysis. Demographic data, ischemia times, donor hypertension, graft function, survival and machine perfusion parameters after 3 hours were analyzed. Each perfusion parameter was divided into 3 groups as high, medium, and low. Estimated glomerular filtration rate was calculated at 12 months and then yearly after transplantation. There was a significant association between graft survival and PFI and GST (P values, .020 and .022, respectively). PFI was the only independent parameter to predict graft survival. A low PFI during ex vivo hypothermic perfusion is associated with inferior graft survival after DCD kidney transplantation. We propose that PFI is a measure of the health of the graft vasculature and that a low PFI indicates vascular disease and therefore predicts a worse long-term outcome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Group-based trajectory models: a new approach to classifying and predicting long-term medication adherence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Jessica M; Shrank, William H; Pakes, Juliana; Sanfélix-Gimeno, Gabriel; Matlin, Olga S; Brennan, Troyen A; Choudhry, Niteesh K

    2013-09-01

    Classifying medication adherence is important for efficiently targeting adherence improvement interventions. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of a novel method, group-based trajectory models, for classifying patients by their long-term adherence. We identified patients who initiated a statin between June 1, 2006 and May 30, 2007 in prescription claims from CVS Caremark and evaluated adherence over the subsequent 15 months. We compared several adherence summary measures, including proportion of days covered (PDC) and trajectory models with 2-6 groups, with the observed adherence pattern, defined by monthly indicators of full adherence (defined as having ≥24 d covered of 30). We also compared the accuracy of adherence prediction based on patient characteristics when adherence was defined by either a trajectory model or PDC. In 264,789 statin initiators, the 6-group trajectory model summarized long-term adherence best (C=0.938), whereas PDC summarized less well (C=0.881). The accuracy of adherence predictions was similar whether adherence was classified by PDC or by trajectory model. Trajectory models summarized adherence patterns better than traditional approaches and were similarly predicted by covariates. Group-based trajectory models may facilitate targeting of interventions and may be useful to adjust for confounding by health-seeking behavior.

  11. Prediction of concrete compressive strength due to long term sulfate attack using neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed M. Diab

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This work was divided into two phases. Phase one included the validation of neural network to predict mortar and concrete properties due to sulfate attack. These properties were expansion, weight loss, and compressive strength loss. Assessment of concrete compressive strength up to 200 years due to sulfate attack was considered in phase two. The neural network model showed high validity on predicting compressive strength, expansion and weight loss due to sulfate attack. Design charts were constructed to predict concrete compressive strength loss. The inputs of these charts were cement content, water cement ratio, C3A content, and sulfate concentration. These charts can be used easily to predict the compressive strength loss after any certain age and sulfate concentration for different concrete compositions.

  12. Long-term non-linear predictability of ENSO events over the 20th century

    CERN Document Server

    Astudillo, H F; Borotto, F A

    2015-01-01

    We show that the monthly recorded history (1878-2013) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Ni\\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be well described as a dynamic system that supports an average nonlinear predictability well beyond the spring barrier. The predictability is strongly linked to a detailed knowledge of the topology of the attractor obtained by embedding the SOI index in a wavelets base state space. Using the state orbits on the attractor we show that the information contained in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is sufficient to provide average nonlinear predictions for time periods of 2, 3 and 4 years in advance throughout the 20th century with an acceptable error. The simplicity of implementation and ease of use makes it suitable for studying non linear predictability in any area where observations are similar to those that describe the ENSO phenomenon.

  13. Performance of the Autoregressive Method in Long-Term Prediction of Sunspot Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, Jongchul; Kim, Yeon Han

    2017-04-01

    The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

  14. TransFormers for Ensuring Long-Term Operations in Lunar Extreme Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantovani, J. G.; Stoica, A.; Alkalai, L.; Wilcox, B.; Quadrelli, M.

    2016-01-01

    "Surviving Extreme Space Environments" (EE) is one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. Power generation and thermal control are the key survival ingredients that allow a robotic explorer to cope with the EE using resources available to it, for example, by harvesting the local solar energy or by utilizing an onboard radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG). TransFormers (TFs) are a new technology concept designed to transform a localized area within a harsh extreme environment into a survivable micro-environment by projecting energy to the precise location where robots or humans operate. For example, TFs placed at a location on the rim of Shackleton Crater, which is illuminated by solar radiation for most of the year, would be able to reflect solar energy onto robots operating in the dark cold crater. TFs utilize a shape transformation mechanism to un-fold from a compact volume to a large reflective surface, and to control how much-and where-the energy is projected, and by adjusting for the changing position of the sun. TFs would enable in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) activities within locations of high interest that would normally be unreachable because of their extreme environment

  15. Local degradation analysis of a real long-term operated DMFC stack MEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Peter; Gerteisen, Dietmar

    2012-12-01

    Understanding degradation of the membrane-electrode assembly (MEA) of direct methanol fuel cells (DMFC) is important technically and scientifically for the advancement of this technology. In this work, we carry out a spatially resolved investigation of the degradation of an MEA, which has been degraded through its operation lifetime. The MEA has an active area of 320 cm2 and has been used in operation of a DMFC stack for more than 3000 h to power a lift truck. The analysis of degradation with respect to the local position of the flow field pattern was carried out by cutting the MEA into small pieces that are characterized in a 1 cm2 sized test cell with a reference electrode setup. The characterization techniques involved measurement of anode and cathode polarization curves, electrode potential relaxation curves after current interruption, MeOH-stripping voltammograms, cyclic voltammetry and SEM/EDX analysis. The MEA pieces were prepared by Laser ablation technique to realize the reference electrodes. The analysis yielded an independence of performance from the local position of the MEAs within the stack in terms of the anode and cathode flow fields.

  16. Long-Term Operating Experience with High-Power Gyrotron Oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felch, Kevin

    2005-10-01

    High-power, megawatt-class gyrotron oscillators have now been used in electron cyclotron heating (ECH) experiments for several years. The long periods of sustained operation have provided important information about the design limits that had initially been placed on the key elements of the gyrotron. In particular, observations made on recent 110 GHz, 1 MW gyrotrons used in ECH experiments on DIII-D at General Atomics indicate that several of the important components of the device, including the electron guns, interaction cavities and diamond output windows, have performed quite well, while analyses of the electron beam collectors on some of the devices indicate that design limits have often been exceeded. Observations made on these gyrotrons will be summarized and plans to address problem areas will be discussed.

  17. New scheme of anticipating synchronization for arbitrary anticipation time and its application to long-term prediction of chaotic states

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Zhong-Kui; Xu Wei; Yang Xiao-Li

    2007-01-01

    How to predict the dynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems is still a challenging subject with important real-life applications. The present paper deals with this important yet difficult problem via a new scheme of anticipating synchronization. A global, robust, analytical and delay-independent sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee the existence of anticipating synchronization manifold theoretically in the framework of the Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory.that the receiver system can synchronize with the future state of a transmitter system for an arbitrarily long anticipation time, which allows one to predict the dynamics of chaotic transmitter at any point of time if necessary. Also it is simple to implement in practice. A classical chaotic system is employed to demonstrate the application of the proposed scheme to the long-term prediction of chaotic states.

  18. [Combined arterial bypass operation and coumarin therapy--a concept for long-term management and its conditions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühnel, L; Heinrichs, C; Wache, I; Neugebauer, J

    1991-01-01

    Antithrombotics of cumarin type or with antiplatelet effect are preferred to obtain results from vascular surgical interventions in arterial occlusion disease. In our experience the combination with cumarin long term therapy seems to be the better method, especially if the following conditions can be achieved: very good compliance of patients respectively strict consideration of absolute and relative contraindications, a sufficient number of patients who are treated and a long enough experience of therapeutists followed by using the recommendations of the WHO expert committee for the worldwide application of standardization in measuring the anticoagulation effect, using reagents and calibration materials, and the expression of results in INR. Further in our anticoagulation behaviour we are used influencing risk factors, having a good cooperation between patients and doctors during secondary diseases and new drug intake. For dental surgery we prefer a Quick test between 30 and 35% activity or 1, 9 and 2, 1 INR. With Phenprocoumon (Falithrom, Markumar) we use the long term anticoagulation effect without several daily applications. Since September 1987 there has been the possibility of a computer assisted programme for dose prediction.

  19. Thermo-oxidative degradation of graphite/epoxy composite laminates: Modeling and long-term predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Thermo-oxidative degradation of graphite/epoxy composite laminates due to exposure to elevated temperatures was characterized using weight loss and short beam strength (SBS reduction data. Test specimens obtained from 24-ply, unidirectional AS4/3501-6 graphite/epoxy laminates were subjected to 100, 150, 175, and 200°C for 5000 hours (208 days in air. Predictive differential models for the weight loss and short beam strength reduction were developed using the isothermal degradation data only up to 2000 hours. Then, the predictive capabilities of both models were demonstrated using the longer term, 5000 hours degradation data. The proposed models were first order differential expressions that can be used to predict degradation in an arbitrary, time-dependent temperature environment. Both models were able to estimate the actual degradation levels accurately. In particular, excellent agreement was obtained when the degradation temperature was lower than 200°C.

  20. Study of the long-term operation of a vanadium/oxygen fuel cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noack, Jens; Cognard, Gwenn; Oral, Meryem; Küttinger, Michael; Roznyatovskaya, Nataliya; Pinkwart, Karsten; Tübke, Jens

    2016-09-01

    A vanadium/oxygen fuel cell (VOFC) with a geometrically active area of 51 cm2 and two membranes was discontinuously operated over a period of over 676 h with 47 successive tests at room temperature with a current density of 19.6 mA/cm2 in order to investigate signs of ageing. As well as measuring cell voltages, the test setup was also used to measure anode and redox potentials as well as cell and half-cell impedances. The performance data of the VOFC fluctuated widely over the course of the test period, due to different V2+ concentrations and instabilities of the starting solutions on the one hand and complex changes in cathode conditions on the other. The desired behaviour of the anode reactions was achieved primarily through improved methods for producing the V2+ solutions, and remained stable at the end of the experiments. The kinetics of the cathode reactions were temporarily increased by purging with 2 M H2SO4, however their performance decreased over time. The VOFC had symptoms of ageing by complex and overlaid changes in the cathode's triple phase boundary layer and in the special conditions between the two electrodes and membranes.

  1. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-06-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb2 +) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV = ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb2+, considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, and K+) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca2 + for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV = 250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers.

  2. Severity of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in haematology patients: long-term impact and early predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagier, D; Platon, L; Chow-Chine, L; Sannini, A; Bisbal, M; Brun, J-P; Blache, J-L; Faucher, M; Mokart, D

    2016-09-01

    Severe forms of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with haematological diseases expose clinicians to specific medical and ethical considerations. We prospectively followed 143 patients with haematological malignancies, and whose lungs were mechanically ventilated for more than 24 h, over a 5-y period. We sought to identify prognostic factors of long-term outcome, and in particular to evaluate the impact of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome in these patients. A secondary objective was to identify the early (first 48 h from ICU admission) predictive factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome severity. An evolutive haematological disease (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.13-2.58), moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.13-2.69) and need for renal replacement therapy (HR 2.24; 95% CI 1.52-3.31) were associated with long-term mortality. Resolution of neutropaenia during ICU stay (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.42-0.94) and early microbiological documentation (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.42-0.91) were associated with survival. The extent of pulmonary infiltration observed on the first chest X-ray and the diagnosis of invasive fungal infection were the most relevant early predictive factors of the severity of acute respiratory distress syndrome. © 2016 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

  3. Geochemical modelling for predicting the long-term performance of zeolite-PRB to treat lead contaminated groundwater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obiri-Nyarko, Franklin; Kwiatkowska-Malina, Jolanta; Malina, Grzegorz; Kasela, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    The feasibility of using geochemical modelling to predict the performance of a zeolite-permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb(2+)) contaminated water was investigated in this study. A short-term laboratory column experiment was first performed with the zeolite (clinoptilolite) until the elution of 50 PV (1 PV=ca. 283 mL). Geochemical simulations of the one-dimensional transport of the Pb(2+), considering removal processes including: ion-exchange, adsorption and complexation; the concomitant release of exchangeable cations (Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), and K(+)) and the changes in pH were subsequently performed using the geochemical model PHREEQC. The results showed a reasonable agreement between the experimental results and the numerical simulations, with the exception of Ca(2+) for which a great discrepancy was observed. The model also indicated the formation of secondary mineral precipitates such as goethite and hematite throughout the experiment, of which the effect on the hydraulic conductivity was found to be negligible. The results were further used to extrapolate the long-term performance of the zeolite. We found the capacity would be completely exhausted at PV=250 (ca. 3 days). The study, thus, generally demonstrates the applicability of PHREEQC to predict the short and long-term performance of zeolite-PRBs. Therefore, it can be used to assist in the design and for management purposes of such barriers.

  4. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  5. Socioeconomic position predicts long-term depression trajectory: a 13-year follow-up of the GAZEL cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melchior, M; Chastang, J-F; Head, J; Goldberg, M; Zins, M; Nabi, H; Younès, N

    2013-01-01

    Individuals with low socioeconomic position have high rates of depression; however, it is not clear whether this reflects higher incidence or longer persistence of disorder. Past research focused on high-risk samples, and risk factors of long-term depression in the population are less well known. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that socioeconomic position predicts depression trajectory over 13 years of follow-up in a community sample. We studied 12 650 individuals participating in the French GAZEL study. Depression was assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression scale in 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2008. These five assessments served to estimate longitudinal depression trajectories (no depression, decreasing depression, intermediate/increasing depression, persistent depression). Socioeconomic position was measured by occupational grade. Covariates included year of birth, marital status, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, negative life events and preexisting psychological and non-psychological health problems. Data were analyzed using multinomial regression, separately in men and women. Overall, participants in intermediate and low occupational grades were significantly more likely than those in high grades to have an unfavorable depression trajectory and to experience persistent depression (age-adjusted ORs: respectively 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-1.70 and 2.65, 95% CI 2.04-3.45 in men, 2.48, 95% CI 1.36-4.54 and 4.53, 95% CI 2.38-8.63 in women). In multivariate models, the socioeconomic gradient in long-term depression decreased by 21-59% in men and women. Long-term depression trajectories appear to follow a socioeconomic gradient; therefore, efforts aiming to reduce the burden of depression should address the needs of the whole population rather than exclusively focus on high-risk groups.

  6. Risk factors for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC predict long-term treatment with docetaxel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Kawahara

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: For patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostatic cancer (mCRPC, docetaxel plus prednisone leads to superior survival and a higher response rate compared with mitoxantrone plus prednisone. We analyzed the efficacy of long-term treatment with ≥10 cycles of docetaxel, and validated the risk group classification in predicting overall survival (OS in Japanese patients with mCRPC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty-two patients with mCRPC were administered 55 mg/m(2 docetaxel and 8 mg dexamethasone, every 3 or 4 weeks, simultaneously with hormonal therapy and daily oral dexamethasone. They were divided into two groups, short-term (9 or fewer cycles and long-term (10 or more cycles. Four risk factors including the presence of anemia, bone metastases, significant pain and visceral metastases were utilized for the risk group classification. RESULTS: Fourteen patients (27% had an elevation of PSA in spite of docetaxel treatment, while 23 patients (44% had a decline in PSA level, including 9 patients (17% whose PSA level declined by ≥50%. The median duration of OS after the initiation of this therapy was 11.2 months in the short-term group and 28.5 months in the long-term group. The good risk group showed a significant difference in OS compared with the intermediate and poor risk groups (P<0.001. The median number of cycles of treatment was 14, 4 and 3 for each risk group, respectively (p<0.01. CONCLUSIONS: The present study indicated that ≥10 cycles of this docetaxel therapy can significantly prolong survival in Japanese men with CRPC. This risk group classification for men with mCRPC at the initiation of this chemotherapy is useful.

  7. Prediction of Settlements of Soft Clay Subjected to Long-Term Dynamic Load

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    -Presented is the numerical analysis of settlements of soft soil by a 2-D dynamic effective stress FEM method. The model based on the results of cyclic triaxial tests on the reconstituted soft Ariake clay is used to predict the wave induced excess pore water pressure and residual strain of soft clay. The settlements of two types of breakwaters on the soft clay under ocean wave load, a low embankment subjected to traffic load and the tunnel surrounded by soft clay in Shanghai subjected to locomotive load are calculated as examples.

  8. Circumferential 2D-strain imaging for the prediction of long term response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baumann Gert

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT leads to hemodynamic and clinical improvement in heart failure patients. The established methods to evaluate myocardial asynchrony analyze longitudinal and radial myocardial function. This study evaluates the new method of circumferential 2D-strain imaging in the prediction of the long-term response to CRT. Methods and results 38 heart failure patients (NYHA II-III, QRS > 120 ms, LVEF Conclusion There is a significant decrease in the circumferential 2D-strain derived delays after CRT, indicating that resynchronization induces improvement in all three dimensions of myocardial contraction. However, the resulting predictive values of 2D strain delays are not superior to longitudinal and radial 2D-strain or TDI delays.

  9. Utility of the Revised Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R) in predicting recidivism after long-term incarceration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchak, Sarah M; Skeem, Jennifer Lynne; Douglas, Kevin S

    2008-12-01

    Assessing an inmate's risk for recidivism may become more challenging as the length of incarceration increases. Although the population of Long-Term Inmates (LTIs) is burgeoning, no risk assessment tools have been specifically validated for this group. Based on a sample of 1,144 inmates released in a state without parole, we examine the utility of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) in assessing risk of general and violent felony recidivism for LTIs (n = 555). Results indicate that (a) the LSI-R moderately predicts general, but not necessarily violent, recidivism, and (b) this predictive utility is not moderated by LTI status, and is based in part on ostensibly dynamic risk factors. Implications for informing parole decision-making and risk management for LTIs are discussed.

  10. Oblique-incidence ionospheric soundings over Central Europe and their application for testing now casting and long term prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrella, M.; Perrone, L.; Fontana, G.; Romano, V.; Malagnini, A.; Tutone, G.; Zolesi, B.; Cander, Lj. R.; Belehaki, A.; Tsagouri, I.; Kouris, S. S.; Vallianatos, F.; Makris, J.; Angling, M.

    2009-06-01

    After a first oblique-incidence ionospheric sounding campaign over Central Europe performed during the period 2003-2004 over the radio links between Inskip (UK, 53.5°N, 2.5°W) and Rome (Italy, 41.8°N, 12.5°E) and between Inskip and Chania (Crete, 35.7°N, 24.0°E), new and more extensive analysis of systematic MUF measurements from January 2005 to December 2006 have been performed. MUF measurements collected during moderately disturbed days (17 ⩽ Ap ⩽ 32), disturbed days (32 50), have been used to test the long term prediction models (ASAPS, ICEPAC and SIRM&LKW), and the now casting models (SIRMUP&LKW and ISWIRM&LKW). The performances of the different prediction methods in terms of r.m.s are shown for selected range of geomagnetic activity and for each season.

  11. Long-term Creep Life Prediction and Its Reliability on HAZ Failure Data of Grade 91 Steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Jang, Jin Sung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jae Young [Pukyong National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Long-term creep life prediction on Grade 91 HAZ failure data was performed by LM parameter, and its reliability was successfully demonstrated using SCRI model based on Z-parameter. To improve the creep life prediction at the low stress range of high temperature range, the master curve with a 'sinh' function was newly proposed. By Monte-Carlo simulation, reliability assessment was made using the chosen service temperature and stress conditions. carbide/nitride forming elements such as V and Nb along with controlled addition of N in the plain 9Cr. 1Mo steel, offers a good combination of high creep strength and ductility over prolonged exposures at elevated temperatures. The choice of Gr. 91 steel for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) applications is guided by its low thermal expansion coefficient and high resistance to stress corrosion cracking in water-steam systems compared to austenitic stainless steels.

  12. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  13. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-04-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  14. Preimplantation biopsy predicts delayed graft function, glomerular filtration rate and long-term graft survival of transplanted kidneys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José A. Pedroso

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The predictive value of preimplantation biopsies for long-term graft function is often limited by conflicting results. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of time-zero graft biopsy histological scores on early and late graft function, graft survival and patient survival, at different time points. We retrospectively analyzed 284 preimplantation biopsies at a single center, in a cohort of recipients with grafts from live and deceased donors (standard and nonstandard, and their impact in posttransplant renal function after a mean follow-up of 7 years (range 1-16. Implantation biopsy score (IBS, a combination score derived from 4 histopathological aspects, was determined from each sample. The correlation with incidence of delayed graft function (DGF, creatinine clearance (1st, 3rd and 5th posttransplant year and graft and patient survival at 1 and 5 years were evaluated. Preimplantation biopsies provided somewhat of a prognostic index of early function and outcome of the transplanted kidney in the short and long term. In the immediate posttransplantation period, the degree of arteriolosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis correlated better with the presence of DGF. IBS values between 4 and 6 were predictive of worst renal function at 1st and 3rd years posttransplant and 5-year graft survival. The most important histological finding, in effectively transplanted grafts, was the grade of interstitial fibrosis. Patient survival was not influenced by IBS. Higher preimplantation biopsy scores predicted an increased risk of early graft losses, especially primary nonfunction. Graft survival (at 1st and 5th years after transplant but not patient survival was predicted by IBS.

  15. Characterization and long term operation of a novel superconducting undulator with 15 mm period length in a synchrotron light source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casalbuoni, S.; Cecilia, A.; Gerstl, S.; Glamann, N.; Grau, A. W.; Holubek, T.; Meuter, C.; de Jauregui, D. Saez; Voutta, R.; Boffo, C.; Gerhard, Th.; Turenne, M.; Walter, W.

    2016-11-01

    A new cryogen-free full scale (1.5 m long) superconducting undulator with a period length of 15 mm (SCU15) has been successfully tested in the ANKA storage ring. This represents a very important milestone in the development of superconducting undulators for third and fourth generation light sources carried on by the collaboration between the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the industrial partner Babcock Noell GmbH. SCU15 is the first full length device worldwide that with beam reaches a higher peak field than what expected with the same geometry (vacuum gap and period length) with an ideal cryogenic permanent magnet undulator built with the best material available PrFeB. After a summary on the design and main parameters of the device, we present here the characterization in terms of spectral properties and the long term operation of the SCU15 in the ANKA storage ring.

  16. Retinal Vessel Calibers Predict Long-term Microvascular Complications in Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broe, Rebecca; Rasmussen, Malin L; Frydkjaer-Olsen, Ulrik

    2014-01-01

    Diabetic neuropathy, nephropathy, and retinopathy cause significant morbidity in patients with type 1 diabetes, even though improvements in treatment modalities delay the appearance and reduce the severity of these complications. To prevent or further delay the onset, it is necessary to better...... as 16-year predictors of diabetic nephropathy, neuropathy, and proliferative retinopathy in a young population-based Danish cohort with type 1 diabetes. We used semiautomated computer software to analyze vessel diameters on baseline retinal photos. Calibers of all vessels coursing through a zone 0...... retinopathy. Early retinal vessel caliber changes are seemingly early markers of microvascular processes, precede the development of microvascular complications, and are a potential noninvasive predictive test on future risk of diabetic retinopathy, neuropathy, and nephropathy....

  17. Predicting Adverse Health Outcomes in Long-Term Survivors of a Childhood Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaya S. Moskowitz

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available More than 80% of children and young adults diagnosed with invasive cancer will survive five or more years beyond their cancer diagnosis. This population has an increased risk for serious illness- and treatment-related morbidity and premature mortality. A number of these adverse health outcomes, such as cardiovascular disease and some second primary neoplasms, either have modifiable risk factors or can be successfully treated if detected early. Absolute risk models that project a personalized risk of developing a health outcome can be useful in patient counseling, in designing intervention studies, in forming prevention strategies, and in deciding upon surveillance programs. Here, we review existing absolute risk prediction models that are directly applicable to survivors of a childhood cancer, discuss the concepts and interpretation of absolute risk models, and examine ways in which these models can be used applied in clinical practice and public health.

  18. Long-term prediction of reading accuracy and speed: The importance of paired-associate learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Mads; Asmussen, Vibeke; Elbro, Carsten

    longitudinal studies have been mixed (e.g. Lervåg & Hulme, 2009; Horbach et al. 2015). The present study investigated the possibility that the mixed results may be a result of a conflation of accuracy and speed. It is possible that PAL is a stronger correlate of reading accuracy than speed (Litt et al., 2013......). The present study attempted to disentangle this issue by measuring reading accuracy and speed separately. Method: 134 Danish children were followed from Grade 0 to Grade 5. In Grade 0, the children completed tests of PAL, RAN, letter knowledge, and phonological awareness. In Grade 5, they completed tests...... of reading comprehension and isolated sight word reading accuracy and speed. Results: PAL predicted unique variance in sight word accuracy, but not speed. Furthermore, PAL was indirectly linked to reading comprehension through sight word accuracy. RAN correlated with both accuracy and speed...

  19. Evolution of long-term land subsidence near Mexico City: Review, field investigations, and predictive simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Zamora, Dalia; Ortega-Guerrero, Adrian

    2010-01-01

    Aquitard consolidation in the Chalco Plain is the most recent of a series of major land subsidence problems near Mexico City caused by leaky-aquifer pumping and involving a complex distribution of basalt flows within a lacustrine sequence. This study first conducted a ground magnetic survey combined with lithologic logs to map the extension of basalts. Then it assessed the evolution of ground surface elevations and updated hydraulic heads in the aquifer and aquitard in order to verify the accuracy of previous simulations and develop new predictions on land subsidence employing a one-dimensional, nonlinear, groundwater flow-consolidation model. Results show the presence of shallow basalts that extend from Sierra Santa Catarina into the Chalco Plain, causing a differential consolidation that controls both the distribution of large-scale fractures in the aquitard and the shape of a new lake. Cumulative land subsidence in the center of the Chalco Plain reached 13 m in 2006, thus closely matching previous numerical estimations. Since 1985, the ground surface decline has continued at a rate of ˜0.40 m/yr, while the potentiometric surface decline in the aquifer proceeds at an average rate of ˜1.5 m/yr, indicating that the flow system has not yet reached steady-state conditions. Numerical predictions show that under current pumping rates, where the aquitard is 300 m, total land subsidence will reach ˜19 m by the year 2020; while where the aquitard is 140 m thick, total land subsidence will reach ˜12 m, and increase the risk of flooding and aquitard fracturing for nearby urban centers.

  20. Main corrective measures in an early phase of nuclear power plants’ preparation for safe long term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krivanek, Robert, E-mail: r.krivanek@iaea.org [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, Operational Safety Section, Vienna 1400 (Austria); Fiedler, Jan, E-mail: fiedler@fme.vutbr.cz [University of Technology Brno, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Energy Institute, Technická 2896/2, 616 69 Brno (Czech Republic)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • Results of SALTO missions provide the most important issues for safe long term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plants. • The most important technical corrective measures in an early phase of preparation for safe LTO are described. • Their satisfactory resolution creates a basis for further activities to demonstrate preparedness for safe LTO. - Abstract: This paper presents the analysis of main technical deficiencies of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in preparedness for safe long term operation (LTO) and the main corrective measures in an early phase of preparation for safe LTO of NPPs. It focuses on technical aspects connected with management of physical ageing of NPP structures, systems and components (SSCs). It uses as a basis results of IAEA SALTO missions performed between 2005 and 2016 (see also paper NED8805 in Nuclear Engineering and Design in May 2016) and the personal experiences of the authors with preparation of NPPs for safe LTO. This paper does not discuss other important aspects of safe LTO of NPPs, e.g. national nuclear energy policies, compliance of NPPs with the latest international requirements on design, obsolescence, environmental impact and economic aspects of LTO. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction of the current status of the NPP’ fleet in connection with LTO. Chapter 2 provides an overview of SALTO peer review service results with a focus on deficiencies related to physical ageing of safety SSCs and a demonstration that SSCs will perform their safety function during the intended period of LTO. Chapter 3 discusses the main corrective measures which NPPs typically face during the preparation for demonstration of safe LTO. Chapter 4 summarizes the current status of the NPP’ fleet in connection with LTO and outlines further steps needed in preparation for safe LTO.

  1. A Meta-analysis to Evaluate the Predictive Validity of the Braden Scale for Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment in Long-term Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong-Lin; Shen, Wang-Qin; Liu, Peng

    2016-09-01

    Although it is among the most commonly used pressure ulcer risk assessment tools, the Braden Scale may lack strong predictive validity when used in the long-term care setting. A meta-analysis was conducted of English-language articles published in the PubMed database and Web of Science from the indices' inception through July 2015 to assess the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for pressure ulcers in long-term care residents. Search terms included pressure ulcer, pressure sore, bedsore, decubitus, long-term care, nursing home, skilled nursing facility, hospice, and Braden. Data extracted from the publications included sample and setting characteristics and predictive value indices. The pooled sensitivities, specificities, diagnostic odds ratios (DOR), and constructed summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves were calculated. Eight studies (2 prospective cohorts and 6 cross-sectional studies) with 41 489 residents met selection criteria for inclusion in the analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.79-0.81) and 0.42 (95% CI: 0.42-0.43), respectively, yielding a combined DOR of 5.66 (95% CI: 3.77-8.48). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.7686 ± 0.0478 (95% CI: 0.6749-0.8623), and the overall diagnostic accuracy (Q*) was 0.7090 ± 0.0402 (95% CI: 0.6302-0.7878). Significant heterogeneity was noted among the included studies; Q value was 302.54 (P = 0.000), and I2 for pooled sensitivity, pooled specificity, and pooled DOR was 97.4%, 98.7% and 96.4%, respectively. Meta-regression analysis showed no heterogeneity was noted among Braden scale cut-offs (P = 0.123) and pressure ulcer prevalence P = 0.547). The evidence showed the Braden Scale has moderate predictive validity and low predictive specificity for pressure ulcers in long-term care residents. The development and testing of new risk assessment scales for this population is warranted.

  2. Functional traits predict relationship between plant abundance dynamic and long-term climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Elumeeva, Tatiana G; Onipchenko, Vladimir G; Shidakov, Islam I; Salpagarova, Fatima S; Khubiev, Anzor B; Tekeev, Dzhamal K; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2013-11-01

    Predicting climate change impact on ecosystem structure and services is one of the most important challenges in ecology. Until now, plant species response to climate change has been described at the level of fixed plant functional types, an approach limited by its inflexibility as there is much interspecific functional variation within plant functional types. Considering a plant species as a set of functional traits greatly increases our possibilities for analysis of ecosystem functioning and carbon and nutrient fluxes associated therewith. Moreover, recently assembled large-scale databases hold comprehensive per-species data on plant functional traits, allowing a detailed functional description of many plant communities on Earth. Here, we show that plant functional traits can be used as predictors of vegetation response to climate warming, accounting in our test ecosystem (the species-rich alpine belt of Caucasus mountains, Russia) for 59% of variability in the per-species abundance relation to temperature. In this mountain belt, traits that promote conservative leaf water economy (higher leaf mass per area, thicker leaves) and large investments in belowground reserves to support next year's shoot buds (root carbon content) were the best predictors of the species increase in abundance along with temperature increase. This finding demonstrates that plant functional traits constitute a highly useful concept for forecasting changes in plant communities, and their associated ecosystem services, in response to climate change.

  3. Early Depressed mood after stroke predicts long-term disability: the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study (NOMASS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willey, Joshua Z.; Disla, Norbelina; Moon, Yeseon Park; Paik, Myunghee C.; Sacco, Ralph L.; Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Elkind, Mitchell SV; Wright, Clinton

    2010-01-01

    Introduction Depression is highly prevalent after stroke, and may influence recovery. We aimed to determine whether depressed mood acutely after stroke predicts subsequent disability and mortality. Methods As part of the Northern Manhattan Stroke Study, a population-based incident stroke case follow-up study performed in a multiethnic urban population, participants were asked about depressed mood within 7–10 days after stroke. Participants were followed every 6 months the first 2 years, and yearly thereafter for 5 years, for death and disability measured by the Barthel Index (BI). We fitted polytomous logistic regression models using canonical link to examine the association between depressed mood after stroke and disability, comparing moderate (BI 60–95) and severe (BI stroke was asked in 340 of 655 ischemic stroke patients enrolled, and 139 reported that they felt depressed. In multivariate analyses controlling for socio-demographic factors, stroke severity, and medical conditions, depressed mood was associated with a greater odds of severe disability compared to no disability at one (OR 2.91, 95% CI 1.07–7.91) and two years (OR 3.72, 95% CI 1.29–10.71) after stroke. Depressed mood was not associated with all cause mortality or vascular death. Conclusion Depressed mood after stroke is associated with disability but not mortality after stroke. Early screening and intervention for mood disorders after stroke may improve outcomes and requires further research. PMID:20671256

  4. The ability of electrical measurements to predict skin moisturization. II. Correlation between one-hour measurements and long-term results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Li, F; Conroy, E; Visscher, M; Wickett, R R

    2001-01-01

    We investigated the ability of short-term (one-hour) electrical measurements with three different commonly used instruments to predict the effects of long-term treatment with glycerin-containing formulations on moderately dry leg skin...

  5. Predicting survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension: insights from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Gomberg-Maitland, Mardi; Frantz, Robert P; Foreman, Aimee J; Coffey, Christopher S; Frost, Adaani; Barst, Robyn J; Badesch, David B; Elliott, C Gregory; Liou, Theodore G; McGoon, Michael D

    2010-01-01

    .... A quantitative survival prediction tool has not been established for research or clinical use. Data from 2716 patients with PAH enrolled consecutively in the US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL...

  6. Simple Model Representations of Transport in a Complex Fracture and Their Effects on Long-Term Predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doughty, Christine; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Doughty, Christine; Uchida, Masahiro

    2007-11-07

    , the simple models can be calibrated to reproduce the peak arrival time and height of the complex-fracture-model BTCs, but the overall match remains quite poor. Using simple models with short-term SC-calibrated parameters for long-term calculations causes order-of-magnitude errors in tracer BTCs: peak arrival time is 10-100 times too late, and peak height is 50-300 times too small. On the other hand, using simple models with laboratory-measured properties of unfractured rock samples for 10,000-year calculations results in peak arrivals and heights up to a factor of 50 too early and large, respectively. The actual magnitudes of the errors made by using the simple models depend on the parameter values assumed for the complex fracture model, but in general, simple models are not expected to provide reliable long-term predictions. The paper concludes with some suggestions on how to improve long-term prediction calculations.

  7. Analysis of long-term land subsidence near Mexico City: Field investigations and predictive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega-Guerrero, Adrian; Rudolph, David L.; Cherry, John A.

    1999-11-01

    The Mexico City region has several flat plains formed on exceptionally porous (60-90%) lacustrine deposits overlying a highly productive regional aquifer. Severe land subsidence due to consolidation of the lacustrine aquitard caused by aquifer exploitation has resulted in restrictions on pumping in the core of Mexico City. This has led to large increases in aquifer pumping in the outlying lacustrine plains where satellite communities are rapidly expanding. The Chalco Basin is one of these lacustrine areas where pumping began in the 1950s and greatly increased in the 1980s. The lacustrine sequence in the Chalco area is significantly thicker than anywhere else in the Basin of Mexico averaging 100 m and reaching a maximum thickness of 300 m. Consequently, this area is susceptible to the highest potential land subsidence effects as a result of groundwater extraction of anywhere in the basin. Land subsidence in the central part of the Chalco Basin has increased to 0.4 m/yr since 1984 and by 1991 total subsidence had reached 8 m. The rapid land subsidence in this area is causing the accumulation of meteoric waters during the rainy season resulting in extensive flooding of farmland. This study first demonstrates a methodology for combining hydraulic data from a network of monitoring wells, geotechnical data from core samples, and a compilation of historical information on land surface elevation to quantify groundwater flow and land subsidence phenomena within the rapidly subsiding Chalco Basin. Then a one-dimensional mathematical model is employed to develop predictions of future land subsidence under a range of pumping conditions. The model permits the hydraulic properties of the aquitard to vary as transient functions of hydraulic head and porosity. Simulations suggest that under current pumping rates, total land subsidence in the area of thickest lacustrine sediment will reach 15 m by the year 2010. If pumping is reduced to the extent that further decline in the

  8. Design, construction, operation and evaluation of a prototype anthracite culm combustion boiler unit. Facility test plan: startup and shakedown, parametric studies and long term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-06-01

    This proposed performance study is to be performed in the anthracite culm prototype boiler located at Paxinos, Pennsylvania. The boiler is designed to produce 23,400 lb/hr of steam of 200 psig. Effects of operating variables on combustion efficiency, sulfur retention, erosion and corrosion will be analyzed during the runs. The boiler will be operated to determine its technical, economic and environmental performance and to project the viability of it for commercial operation. After the initial testing, the boiler performance will be evaluated over the long term operation.

  9. Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Vom Hofe, Rudolf

    2013-01-01

    This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage  = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies.

  10. D-dimer for prediction of long-term outcome in cryptogenic stroke patients with patent foramen ovale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young Dae; Song, Dongbeom; Nam, Hyo Suk; Lee, Kijeong; Yoo, Joonsang; Hong, Geu-Ru; Lee, Hye Sun; Nam, Chung Mo; Heo, Ji Hoe

    2015-08-31

    Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a potential cause of cryptogenic stroke, given the possibility of paradoxical embolism from venous to systemic circulation. D-dimer level is used to screen venous thrombosis. We investigated the risk of embolism and mortality according to the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke patients. A total of 570 first-ever cryptogenic stroke patients who underwent transesophageal echocardiography were included in this study. D-dimer was assessed using latex agglutination assay during admission. The association of long-term outcomes with the presence of PFO and D-dimer levels was investigated. PFO was detected in 241 patients (42.3 %). During a mean 34.0 ± 22.8 months of follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 58 (10.2 %) patients, ischaemic stroke in 33 (5.8 %), and pulmonary thromboembolism in 6 (1.1 %). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was an independent predictor for recurrent ischaemic stroke in patients with PFO (hazard ratio 5.341, 95 % confidence interval 1.648-17.309, p=0.005), but not in those without PFO. However, in patients without PFO, a D-dimer level of > 1,000 ng/ml was independently related with all-cause mortality. The risk of pulmonary thromboembolism tended to be high in patients with high D-dimer levels, regardless of PFO. Elevated D-dimer levels in cryptogenic stroke were predictive of the long-term outcome, which differed according to the presence of PFO. The coexistence of PFO and a high D-dimer level increased the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke. The D-dimer test in cryptogenic stroke patients may be useful for predicting outcomes and deciding treatment strategy.

  11. Assessment of segregation kinetics in water-moderated reactors pressure vessel steels under long-term operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshova, E. A.; Gurovich, B. A.; Lavrukhina, Z. V.; Saltykov, M. A.; Fedotova, S. V.; Khodan, A. N.

    2016-08-01

    In reactor pressure vessel (RPV) bcc-lattice steels temper embrittlement is developed under the influence of both operating temperature of ∼300 °C and neutron irradiation. Segregation processes in the grain boundaries (GB) begin to play a special role in the assessment of the safe operation of the RPV in case of its lifetime extension up to 60 years or more. The most reliable information on the RPV material condition can be obtained by investigating the surveillance specimens (SS) that are exposed to operational factors simultaneously with the RPV itself. In this paper the GB composition in the specimens with different thermal exposure time at the RPV operating temperature as well as irradiated by fast neutrons (E ≥ 0.5 MeV) to different fluences (20-71)·1022 m-2 was studied by means of Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) including both impurity and main alloying elements content. The data obtained allowed to trace the trend of the operating temperature and radiation-stimulated diffusion influence on the overall segregants level in GB. The revealed differences in the concentration levels of GB segregants in different steels, are due to the different chemical composition of the steels and also due to different grain boundary segregation levels in initial (unexposed) state. The data were used to estimate the RPV steels working capacity for 60 years. The estimation was carried out using both the well-known Langmuir-McLean model and the one specially developed for RPV steels, which takes into account the structure and phase composition of VVER-1000 RPV steels, as well as the long-term influence of operational factors.

  12. Evaluating a theory of stress and adjustment when predicting long-term psychosocial outcome after brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutterford, Neil A; Wood, Rodger L

    2006-05-01

    Kendall and Terry (1996) include many psychosocial predictors in their theoretical model that explains individual differences in psychosocial adjustment (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). The model depicts appraisal and coping variables as mediating relationships between situation factors, environmental and personal resources, and multidimensional outcome. The aim of this study was to explore these theoretical relationships at very late stages of recovery from traumatic brain injury. A total of 131 participants who were more than 10 years post-injury (mean = 15.31 years) completed several psychosocial measures relating to outcome dimensions comprising employment, community integration, life satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and emotion. There was no evidence that appraisal and coping variables mediated relationships between psychosocial and any of the outcome variables. However, when appraisal and coping variables were combined with psychosocial variables as direct predictors of outcome, every outcome except employment status was reliably predicted, accounting for between 31 and 46% of the variance. Personality significantly influenced all predicted outcomes. Self-efficacy contributed to the prediction of all outcomes except QoL. Data did not support for the theory of stress and adjustment as a framework for explaining the nature of predictive relationships between psychosocial variables and very long-term, multidimensional outcome after brain injury.

  13. Evaluation of performance of a BLSS model in long-term operation in dynamic and steady states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gros, Jean-Bernard; Tikhomirov, Alex; Ushakova, Sofya; Velitchko, Vladimir; Tikhomirova, Natalia; Lasseur, Christophe

    Evaluation of performance of a BLSS model, including higher plants for food production and biodegradation of human waste, in long-term operation in dynamic and steady states was performed. The model system was conceived for supplying vegetarian food and oxygen to 0.07 human. The following data were obtained in steady-state operating conditions. Average rate of wheat, chufa, radish, lettuce and Salicornia edible biomass accumulation were 8.7, 5.5, 0.6, 0.6 and metricconverterProductID2.5 g2.5 g per day respectively. Thus, to mimic the vegetarian edible biomass consumption by a human it was necessary to withdraw 17.9 g/d from total mass ex-change. Simultaneously, human mineralized exometabolites (artificial mineralized urine, AMU) in the amount of approximately 7% of a daily norm were introduced into the nutrient solu-tion for irrigation of the plants cultivated on a neutral substrate (expanded clay aggregate). The estimated value of 5.8 g/d of wheat and Salicornia inedible biomass was introduced in the soil-like substrate (SLS) to fully meet the plants need in nitrogen. The rest of wheat and Salicornia inedible biomass, 5.7 g/d, was stored. Thus in all, 23.6g of vegetarian dry matter had been stored. Assuming edible biomass is eaten up by the human, the closure coefficient of the vegetarian biomass inclusion into matter recycling amounted to 88%. The analysis of the long-term model operation showed that the main factors limiting increase of recycling processes were the following: a) Partly unbalanced mineral composition of daily human waste with daily needs of plants culti-` vated in the system. Thus, when fully satisfied with respect to nitrogen, the plants experienced a lack of macro elements such as P, Mg and Ca by more than 50%; b) Partly unbalanced mineral composition of edible biomass of the plants cultivated in the SLS with that of inedible biomass of the plants cultivated by hydroponic method on neutral substrate introduced in the SLS; c) Accumulation of

  14. A review on durability issues and restoration techniques in long-term operations of direct methanol fuel cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmood, Asad; Scibioh, M. Aulice; Prabhuram, Joghee; An, Myung-Gi; Ha, Heung Yong

    2015-11-01

    Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) remain attractive among advanced energy conversion technologies due to their high energy density and simple system configuration. Although they made an early market entry but failed to attain a large-scale commercialization mainly because of their inferior performance sustainment in lifetime operations and high production costs. There have been lots of R&D efforts made to upgrade the long-term durability of DMFCs to a commercially acceptable standard. These rigorous efforts have been useful in gaining insights about various degradation mechanisms and their origins. This review first briefly describes the recent progress in lifetime enhancement of DMFC technology reported by various groups in academia and industry. Then, it is followed by comprehensive discussions on the major performance degradation routes and associated physico-chemical origins, and influence of operational parameters, together with the methods which have been employed to alleviate and restore the performance losses. Finally, a brief summary of the presented literature survey is provided in conjunction with some possible future research directions.

  15. ADRA2B deletion variant selectively predicts stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory in females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoladz, Phillip R; Kalchik, Andrea E; Hoffman, Mackenzie M; Aufdenkampe, Rachael L; Lyle, Sarah M; Peters, David M; Brown, Callie M; Cadle, Chelsea E; Scharf, Amanda R; Dailey, Alison M; Wolters, Nicholas E; Talbot, Jeffery N; Rorabaugh, Boyd R

    2014-10-01

    Clarifying the mechanisms that underlie stress-induced alterations of learning and memory may lend important insight into susceptibility factors governing the development of stress-related psychological disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous work has shown that carriers of the ADRA2B Glu(301)-Glu(303) deletion variant exhibit enhanced emotional memory, greater amygdala responses to emotional stimuli and greater intrusiveness of traumatic memories. We speculated that carriers of this deletion variant might also be more vulnerable to stress-induced enhancements of long-term memory, which would implicate the variant as a possible susceptibility factor for traumatic memory formation. One hundred and twenty participants (72 males, 48 females) submerged their hand in ice cold (stress) or warm (no stress) water for 3min. Immediately afterwards, they studied a list of 42 words varying in emotional valence and arousal and then completed an immediate free recall test. Twenty-four hours later, participants' memory for the word list was examined via free recall and recognition assessments. Stressed participants exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor had enhanced recall on the 24-h assessment. Importantly, this enhancement was independent of the emotional nature of the learned information. In contrast to previous work, we did not observe a general enhancement of memory for emotional information in ADRA2B deletion carriers. However, stressed female ADRA2B deletion carriers, particularly those exhibiting greater heart rate responses to the stressor, did demonstrate greater recognition memory than all other groups. Collectively, these findings implicate autonomic mechanisms in the pre-learning stress-induced enhancement of long-term memory and suggest that the ADRA2B deletion variant may selectively predict stress effects on memory in females. Such findings lend important insight into the physiological mechanisms underlying stress

  16. Comparison of different comorbidity measures for use with administrative data in predicting short- and long-term mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ng Yee-Yung

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is important to find a comorbidity measure with better performance for use with administrative data. The new method proposed by Elixhauser et al. has never been validated and compared to the widely used Charlson method in the Asia region. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of three comorbidity measures using information from different data periods in predicting short- and long-term mortality among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National Health Insurance claims data (2001-2002 in Taiwan. We constructed the Elixhauser, the Charlson/Deyo, and the Charlson/Romano methods based on the International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes in the claims data. Two data periods, including the index hospitalization as well as the index and prior 1-year hospitalizations, were used in the analysis. The performances were compared using the c-statistics derived from multiple logistic regression models that included age, gender, race, and whether the patient received surgery or not. The outcomes of interest were in-hospital and 1-year mortality. Results The performance was in the same rank order among both populations regardless of the outcome and data period: Elixhauser > Charlson/Romano > Charlson/Deyo. In predicting in-hospital mortality, the Elixhauser models using information from the index hospitalization performed best, even better than the Charlson/Deyo or Charlson/Romano models using information from the index and prior hospitalizations. Nevertheless, in predicting 1-year mortality, the Elixhauser models using information from the index and 1-year prior hospitalizations performed better than using information from the index hospitalization only. Conclusions This is so far the first study to validate the Elixhauser method and compare it to other methods in

  17. The long-term prediction of return to work following serious accidental injuries: A follow up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sensky Tom

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Considerable indirect costs are incurred by time taken off work following accidental injuries. The aim of this study was to predict return to work following serious accidental injuries. Method 121 severely injured patients were included in the study. Complete follow-up data were available for 85 patients. Two weeks post trauma (T1, patients rated their appraisal of the injury severity and their ability to cope with the injury and its job-related consequences. Time off work was assessed at one (T2 and three years (T3 post accident. The main outcome was the number of days of sick leave taken due to the accidental injury. Results The patients' appraisals a of the injury severity and b of their coping abilities regarding the accidental injury and its job-related consequences were significant predictors of the number of sick-leave days taken. Injury severity (ISS, type of accident, age and gender did not contribute significantly to the prediction. Conclusions Return to work in the long term is best predicted by the patients' own appraisal of both their injury severity and the ability to cope with the accidental injury.

  18. The Solar Radio Flux on 10.7cm as the best index for Space Weather long-term Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaltout, Mosalam; Shaltout, Mosalam; Ramy Mawad, Rr.; Youssef, Mohamed

    . The Solar Radio Flux on 10.7cm was observed since more than 60 years ago till today at Ottawa, Canada. The daily value of 10.7cm solar flux showed a very good correlation with solar activity than the sunspot number Rz. The space weather is affected by the electromagnetic radiation come from the solar corona (X-ray and gamma-rays). Also, it is affected by the ionized particles from the sun due to the eruptive flares and coronal mass ejections, CME. Due to 10.7cm solar flux comes from the hot corona of the sun, it is a very good index for flare and CME activity, where the both occur in the corona. The use of 10.7cm solar flux for Ottawa for 60 years can be used to predict the next maximum solar activity for solar No. 24 (about 2012). This long-term prediction by use FFT and Fuzzy model is very important to prediction the space weather at 2012, where the second satellite EgyptSat 2 will be lunched at 2012 by the space Egyptian program.

  19. DOE-NE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program and EPRI Long-Term Operations Program. Joint Research and Development Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Don

    2014-04-01

    Nuclear power has contributed almost 20% of the total amount of electricity generated in the United States over the past two decades. High capacity factors and low operating costs make nuclear power plants (NPPs) some of the most economical power generators available. Further, nuclear power remains the single largest contributor (nearly 70%) of non-greenhouse gas-emitting electric power generation in the United States. Even when major refurbishments are performed to extend operating life, these plants continue to represent cost-effective, low-carbon assets to the nation’s electrical generation capability. By the end of 2014, about one-third of the existing domestic fleet will have passed their 40th anniversary of power operations, and about one-half of the fleet will reach the same 40-year mark within this decade. Recognizing the challenges associated with pursuing extended service life of commercial nuclear power plants, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have established separate but complementary research and development programs (DOE-NE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability [LWRS] Program and EPRI’s Long-Term Operations [LTO] Program) to address these challenges. To ensure that a proper linkage is maintained between the programs, DOE-NE and EPRI executed a memorandum of understanding in late 2010 to “establish guiding principles under which research activities (between LWRS and LTO) could be coordinated to the benefit of both parties.” This document represents the third annual revision to the initial version (March 2011) of the plan as called for in the memorandum of understanding.

  20. Long term outcomes of bilateral congenital and developmental cataracts operated in Maharashtra, India. Miraj pediatric cataract study III

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parikshit M Gogate

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim : To study long term outcome of bilateral congenital and developmental cataract surgery. Subjects: 258 pediatric cataract operated eyes of 129 children. Materials and Methods: Children who underwent pediatric cataract surgery in 2004-8 were traced and examined prospectively in 2010-11. Demographic and clinical factors were noted from retrospective chart readings. All children underwent visual acuity estimation and comprehensive ocular examination in a standardized manner. L. V. Prasad Child Vision Function scores (LVP-CVF were noted for before and after surgery. Statistics: Statistical analysis was done with SPSS version 16 including multi-variate analysis. Results: Children aged 9.1 years (std dev 4.6, range 7 weeks-15 years at the time of surgery. 74/129 (57.4% were boys. The average duration of follow-up was 4.4 years (stddev 1.6, range 3-8 years. 177 (68.6% eyes had vision 6/18 and 157 (60.9% had BCVA >6/60 3-8 years after surgery. 48 (37.2% had binocular stereoacuity <480 sec of arc by TNO test. Visual outcome depended on type of cataract (P = 0.004, type of cataract surgery (P < 0.001, type of intra-ocular lens (P = 0.05, age at surgery (P = 0.004, absence of post-operative uveitis (P = 0.01 and pre-operative vision (P < 0.001, but did not depend on delay (0.612 between diagnosis and surgery. There was a statistically significant improvement for all the 20 questions of the LVP-CVF scale (P < 0.001. Conclusion : Pediatric cataract surgery improved the children′s visual acuity, stereo acuity and vision function. Developmental cataract, use of phacoemulsification, older children and those with better pre-operative vision had betterlong-termoutcomes.

  1. Prognosis and Long-Term Survival after Operation in Patients with Pancreatic and Peripancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors of a Single Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika S Janot

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors are very rare. The aim of this study was to assess the survival rate in patients with functioning or non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Methods The data for 49 patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors who were treated at a single institution from January 2004 to December 2010 were analyzed retrospectively with regard to short-term and long-term outcomes, as well as predictive factors for survival and prognosis. Overall survival was evaluated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with the prognosis in a multivariate analysis. Results Patients’ median age at diagnosis was 59 years (range 17–83 years. Nine lesions (19% were functioning tumors and 40 (81% were non-functional. The 5-year survival rate was 85.5%. Among patients who underwent potentially curative resection, tumor stage (P=0.001, pathological classification (P=0.03 and presence of liver metastases (P=0.003, as well as the resection margin, were significant prognostic factors. Conclusions Surgical resection should be attempted and should play a central role in the therapeutic approach to patients with neuroendocrine tumors. The important aspect is early diagnosis, which makes it possible to carry out radical surgery before the tumor has metastasized.

  2. Predictive and concurrent validity of the Braden scale in long-term care: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilchesky, Machelle; Lungu, Ovidiu

    2015-01-01

    Pressure ulcer prevention is an important long-term care (LTC) quality indicator. While the Braden Scale is a recommended risk assessment tool, there is a paucity of information specifically pertaining to its validity within the LTC setting. We, therefore, undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing Braden Scale predictive and concurrent validity within this context. We searched the Medline, EMBASE, PsychINFO and PubMed databases from 1985-2014 for studies containing the requisite information to analyze tool validity. Our initial search yielded 3,773 articles. Eleven datasets emanating from nine published studies describing 40,361 residents met all meta-analysis inclusion criteria and were analyzed using random effects models. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive values were 86%, 38%, 28%, and 93%, respectively. Specificity was poorer in concurrent samples as compared with predictive samples (38% vs. 72%), while PPV was low in both sample types (25 and 37%). Though random effects model results showed that the Scale had good overall predictive ability [RR, 4.33; 95% CI, 3.28-5.72], none of the concurrent samples were found to have "optimal" sensitivity and specificity. In conclusion, the appropriateness of the Braden Scale in LTC is questionable given its low specificity and PPV, in particular in concurrent validity studies. Future studies should further explore the extent to which the apparent low validity of the Scale in LTC is due to the choice of cutoff point and/or preventive strategies implemented by LTC staff as a matter of course.

  3. Study of long-term operation of triple-GEM detectors for the high rate environment in CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Merlin, Jeremie Alexandre

    2013-01-01

    The CMS GEM collaboration is working on the possible instrumentation of the high-eta region of the CMS Endcap with Gas Electron Multiplier (GEM) detectors, a technology capable to sustain the hostile environment that will be encountered at the high-luminosity LHC. To ensure the long-term operation of large triple-GEM detectors in the CMS experiment, we are performing a set of studies in order to measure and understand the aging effect of triple-GEM Muon chambers. The aging includes all the processes that lead to a significant degradation of the performances of the detector gain drop, non-uniformity, dark current, discharges and resolution loss. The project is focused on monitoring continuously the response of the detector when irradiated by a source of Cs 137 at CERN in the Gamma Irradiation Facility (GIF). Moreover, the new technology employed for stretching the GEM foils, so called NS2, introduces new, carefully chosen materials and components in the detectors. Outgassing tests are performed in order to va...

  4. RANIBIZUMAB FOR RETINAL VEIN OCCLUSION: Predictive Factors and Long-Term Outcomes in Real-Life Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatziralli, Irini; Theodossiadis, George; Chatzirallis, Alexandros; Parikakis, Efstratios; Mitropoulos, Panagiotis; Theodossiadis, Panagiotis

    2017-02-28

    The purpose of the study was to evaluate the long-term anatomical and functional outcomes in patients with retinal vein occlusion (RVO), either central retinal vein occlusion or branch retinal vein occlusion, treated with intravitreal ranibizumab and to determine the predictive factors of the final visual outcome. This retrospective study included 54 treatment-naive patients with macular edema due to RVO (25 with central retinal vein occlusion and 29 with branch retinal vein occlusion), who were treated with intravitreal ranibizumab (3 monthly injections and pro re nata). Predictive factors for visual outcome were assessed. In addition, the best-corrected visual acuity change and the percentage of patients with edema resolution were evaluated. The mean follow-up time was 47.4 ± 11.1 months. At the end of the follow-up, patients with central retinal vein occlusion gained +6.9 letters (∼1 Snellen line), whereas patients with branch retinal vein occlusion gained +15.1 letters (3 Snellen lines). Forty-eight percent of patients in central retinal vein occlusion group and 69.0% in branch retinal vein occlusion group presented resolution of macular edema. Negative predictive factors for the final visual outcome were found to be increasing age, increasing macular thickness, the presence of intraretinal fluid, the duration of RVO >3 months, the ischemic type of RVO, the cystoid type of edema, and the external limiting membrane and ellipsoid zone disruption. The various predictive factors that determine the visual outcome and possibly define the patients' prognosis after ranibizumab treatment in RVO have been studied. The long follow-up period showed that ranibizumab seems to be safe and effective in the treatment of the disease.

  5. True Grit: Trait-level Perseverance and Passion for Long-term Goals Predicts Effectiveness and Retention among Novice Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson-Kraft, Claire; Duckworth, Angela Lee

    2013-01-01

    Background/Context Surprisingly little progress has been made in linking teacher effectiveness and retention to factors observable at the time of hire. The rigors of teaching, particularly in low-income school districts, suggest the importance of personal qualities that have so far been difficult to measure objectively. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study In this study, we examine the predictive validity of personal qualities not typically collected by school districts during the hiring process. Specifically, we use a psychological framework to explore how biographical data on grit, a disposition toward perseverance and passion for long-term goals, explains variance in novice teachers’ effectiveness and retention. Research Design In two prospective, longitudinal samples of novice teachers assigned to schools in low-income districts (N = 154 and N = 307, respectively), raters blind to outcomes followed a 7-point rubric to rate grit from information on college activities and work experience extracted from teachers’ résumés. We used independent-samples t-tests and binary logistic regression models to predict teacher effectiveness and retention from these grit ratings as well as from other information (e.g., SAT scores, college GPA, interview ratings of leadership potential) available at the time of hire. Conclusions/Recommendations Grittier teachers outperformed their less gritty colleagues and were less likely to leave their classrooms mid-year. Notably, no other variables in our analysis predicted either effectiveness or retention. These findings contribute to a better understanding of what leads some novice teachers to outperform others and remain committed to the profession. In addition to informing policy decisions surrounding teacher recruitment and development, this investigation highlights the potential of a psychological framework to explain why some individuals are more successful than others in meeting the rigorous demands of teaching

  6. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Neill J

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Joseph O'Neill,1 Jamie D Feusner,2 1Division of Child Psychiatry, 2Division of Adult Psychiatry, UCLA Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, Los Angeles, CA, USA Abstract: This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD: improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT. Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. Keywords: follow-up, access to treatment, relapse, resting-state fMRI, magnetic resonance spectroscopy

  7. Predicting intentions for long-term anabolic-androgenic steroid use among men: a covariance structure model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrandt, Tom; Langenbucher, James; Carr, Sasha; Sanjuan, Pilar; Park, Steff

    2006-09-01

    Long-term use of anabolic-androgenic steroids (AASs) is associated with both positive and negative effects. The authors examined possible mechanisms by which these effects contribute to AAS satisfaction and predict intentions for future AAS use. Five hundred male AAS users completed an interactive Web-based instrument assessing the psychological and physical effects of AAS use. Covariance structure modeling was used to evaluate both direct and indirect effects of AAS consequences on satisfaction with AASs and intentions for future AAS use. Results suggest that gain in muscle mass and psychological benefits from AAS use uniquely contributed to both AAS satisfaction and intentions for future use. Side effects from AAS use also uniquely contributed to AAS satisfaction, but ancillary drug use was found to partially mediate this relationship, suggesting that the satisfaction of experienced AAS users is enhanced by their mastery of side effects through the use of ancillary drugs. The final model explained 29% of the variance in intentions for future AAS use. Mechanisms for sustained AAS use and implications for intervention and prevention strategies are discussed.

  8. Creep compression behaviour of a polyurethane foam from cryogenic temperatures: size effect and long-term prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy A.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to predict the long term behavior of Polyurethane foam (PU at very low-temperature, by applying the time-temperature superposition principle (TTSP. The experimental background of the TTSP was based on a Dynamical Mechanical Analysis technique. Two issues arise from this experimental approach: the relevance of the temperature range to apply the TTSP, and the possible size-effect associated to the small DMA samples. Firstly, on the studied temperature range (-170°C; +180°C many transitions have been observed, particularly from -20°C. Thus to apply the TTSP, it would be necessary to limit the temperature range (between temperature of molecular transitions, i.e. from -20°C up to 80°C. At very low temperatures, DMA spectra did not evidence any viscoelastic domain. However a deformation has been measured during creep tests in the same temperature range. So it would be necessary to determine which micro-mechanism is responsible for the observed deformation. Secondly, it was important to determine if the volume of DMA sample was representative. Several techniques have shown that a representative volume would be reached between 8 and 12mm3.

  9. Masculine norms, disclosure, and childhood adversities predict long-term mental distress among men with histories of child sexual abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Scott D

    2014-02-01

    Child sexual abuse (CSA) can have a profound effect on the long-term mental health of boys/men. However, not all men with histories of CSA experience psychopathology. To improve prevention and intervention services, more research is needed to understand why some male survivors experience mental health problems and others do not. The purpose of this study was to examine factors related to mental distress among a large, non-clinical sample of men with histories of CSA (N=487). Using a cross-sectional design with purposive sampling from three national survivor organizations, data were collected through an anonymous Internet-based survey. Multivariate analyses found that only one of the four CSA severity variables-use of physical force by the abuser-was related to mental distress. Additional factors that were related to mental distress included the number of other childhood adversities, years until disclosure, overall response to disclosure, and conformity to masculine norms. Overall, the final model predicted 36% of the variance in the number of mental health symptoms. Mental health practitioners should include masculine norms, disclosure history, and childhood adversities in assessments and intervention planning with male survivors. To more fully explicate risk factors for psychopathology in this population, future studies with probability samples of men that focus on mediational processes and use longitudinal designs are needed.

  10. Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

    2015-05-01

    We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

  11. Computer-Aided Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis of Patients with Ulcerative Colitis after Cytoapheresis Therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuro Takayama

    Full Text Available Cytoapheresis (CAP therapy is widely used in ulcerative colitis (UC patients with moderate to severe activity in Japan. The aim of this study is to predict the need of operation after CAP therapy of UC patients on an individual level using an artificial neural network system (ANN. Ninety UC patients with moderate to severe activity were treated with CAP. Data on the patients' demographics, medication, clinical activity index (CAI and efficacy of CAP were collected. Clinical data were divided into training data group and validation data group and analyzed using ANN to predict individual outcomes. The sensitivity and specificity of predictive expression by ANN were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. Events of admission, operation, and use of immunomodulator, and efficacy of CAP were significantly correlated to the outcome. Requirement of operation after CAP therapy was successfully predicted by using ANN. This newly established ANN strategy would be used as powerful support of physicians in the clinical practice.

  12. Observing versus Predicting: Initial Patterns of Filling Predict Long-Term Adherence More Accurately Than High-Dimensional Modeling Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Jessica M; Shrank, William H; Lii, Joyce; Krumme, Alexis K; Matlin, Olga S; Brennan, Troyen A; Choudhry, Niteesh K

    2016-02-01

    Despite the proliferation of databases with increasingly rich patient data, prediction of medication adherence remains poor. We proposed and evaluated approaches for improved adherence prediction. We identified Medicare beneficiaries who received prescription drug coverage through CVS Caremark and initiated a statin. A total of 643 variables were identified at baseline from prior claims and linked Census data. In addition, we identified three postbaseline predictors, indicators of adherence to statins during each of the first 3 months of follow-up. We estimated 10 models predicting subsequent adherence, using logistic regression and boosted logistic regression, a nonparametric data-mining technique. Models were also estimated within strata defined by the index days supply. In 77,703 statin initiators, prediction using baseline variables only was poor with maximum cross-validated C-statistics of 0.606 and 0.577 among patients with index supply ≤30 days and >30 days, respectively. Using only indicators of initial statin adherence improved prediction accuracy substantially among patients with shorter initial dispensings (C = 0.827/0.518), and, when combined with investigator-specified variables, prediction accuracy was further improved (C = 0.842/0.596). Observed adherence immediately after initiation predicted future adherence for patients whose initial dispensings were relatively short. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  13. Validation of three new measure-correlate-predict models\\ud for the long-term prospection of the wind resource

    OpenAIRE

    Romo, Alejandro; Amezcua, Javier; Probst, Oliver

    2011-01-01

    The estimation of the long-term wind resource at a prospective site based on a relatively short on-site measurement campaign is an indispensable task in the development of a commercial wind farm. The typical industry approach is based on the measure-correlate-predict �MCP� method where a relational model between the site wind velocity data and the data obtained from a suitable reference site is built from concurrent records. In a subsequent step, a long-term prediction for the prospective\\ud ...

  14. Baseline hepatitis B core antibody predicts treatment response in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving long-term entecavir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, J-H; Song, L-W; Li, N; Wang, S; Zeng, Z; Si, C-W; Li, J; Mao, Q; Zhang, D-Z; Tang, H; Sheng, J-F; Chen, X-Y; Ning, Q; Shi, G-F; Xie, Q; Yuan, Q; Yu, Y-Y; Xia, N-S

    2017-02-01

    Studies regarding the clinical significance of quantitative hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc) in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving first-line nucleos(t)ide analogues is limited. The aim of this study was to determine the performance of anti-HBc as a predictor for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion in HBeAg-positive CHB patients treated with entecavir. This was a retrospective cohort study consisting of 139 Chinese patients enrolled in a multicenter clinical trial treated with entecavir or entecavir maleate for up to 240 weeks. Anti-HBc evaluation was conducted for all the available samples using a newly developed double-sandwich anti-HBc immunoassay. At week 240, 35 (25.2%) patients achieved a serological response (HBeAg seroconversion) and these patients at week 240 had significantly higher levels of anti-HBc (P<.01). We defined 4.65 log10  IU·mL(-1) , with a maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity, as the optimal cut-off value of baseline anti-HBc level to predict seroconversion. Patients with baseline anti-HBc ≥4.65 log10  IU·mL(-1) had 28.0% (26/93) and 35.5% (33/93) chance of seroconversion at weeks 144 and 240, respectively. The baseline anti-HBc level was the strongest predictor for seroconversion at week 144 (OR: 5.78, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.05-16.34, P=.001). The baseline anti-HBc level was a strong predictor for seroconversion at week 240 (OR: 5.36, 95% CI: 2.17-13.25, P<.001). Hence, baseline anti-HBc titre is a useful predictor of long-term entecavir therapy efficacy in HBeAg-positive CHB patients, which could be used to optimize antiviral therapy. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Mixing-controlled uncertainty in long-term predictions of acid rock drainage from heterogeneous waste-rock piles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedretti, D.; Beckie, R. D.; Mayer, K. U.

    2015-12-01

    The chemistry of drainage from waste-rock piles at mine sites is difficult to predict because of a number of uncertainties including heterogeneous reactive mineral content, distribution of minerals, weathering rates and physical flow properties. In this presentation, we examine the effects of mixing on drainage chemistry over timescales of 100s of years. We use a 1-D streamtube conceptualization of flow in waste rocks and multicomponent reactive transport modeling. We simplify the reactive system to consist of acid-producing sulfide minerals and acid-neutralizing carbonate minerals and secondary sulfate and iron oxide minerals. We create multiple realizations of waste-rock piles with distinct distributions of reactive minerals along each flow path and examine the uncertainty of drainage geochemistry through time. The limited mixing of streamtubes that is characteristic of the vertical unsaturated flow in many waste-rock piles, allows individual flowpaths to sustain acid or neutral conditions to the base of the pile, where the streamtubes mix. Consequently, mixing and the acidity/alkalinity balance of the streamtube waters, and not the overall acid- and base-producing mineral contents, control the instantaneous discharge chemistry. Our results show that the limited mixing implied by preferential flow and the heterogeneous distribution of mineral contents lead to large uncertainty in drainage chemistry over short and medium time scales. However, over longer timescales when one of either the acid-producing or neutralizing primary phases is depleted, the drainage chemistry becomes less controlled by mixing and in turn less uncertain. A correct understanding of the temporal variability of uncertainty is key to make informed long-term decisions in mining settings regarding the management of waste material.

  16. Early Expressive Language Skills Predict Long-Term Neurocognitive Outcomes in Cochlear Implant Users: Evidence from the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Irina; Pisoni, David B; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica

    2016-08-01

    The objective of the present article was to document the extent to which early expressive language skills (measured using the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories [CDI; Fenson et al., 2006]) predict long-term neurocognitive outcomes in a sample of early-implanted prelingually deaf cochlear implant (CI) users. The CDI was used to index the early expressive language skills of 32 pediatric CI users after an average of 1.03 years (SD = 0.56, range = 0.39-2.17) of CI experience. Long-term neurocognitive outcomes were assessed after an average of 11.32 (SD = 2.54, range = 7.08-16.52) years of CI experience. Measures of long-term neurocognitive outcomes were derived from gold-standard performance-based and questionnaire-based assessments of language, executive functioning, and academic skills. Analyses revealed that early expressive language skills, collected on average 1.03 years post cochlear implantation, predicted long-term language, executive functioning, and academic skills up to 16 years later. These findings suggest that early expressive language skills, as indexed by the CDI, are clinically relevant for identifying CI users who may be at high risk for long-term neurocognitive delays and disturbances.

  17. Long-Term (Six Years) Clinical Outcome Discrimination of Patients in the Vegetative State Could be Achieved Based on the Operational Architectonics EEG Analysis: A Pilot Feasibility Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fingelkurts, Andrew A.; Fingelkurts, Alexander A.; Bagnato, Sergio; Boccagni, Cristina; Galardi, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings are increasingly used to evaluate patients with disorders of consciousness (DOC) or assess their prognosis outcome in the short-term perspective. However, there is a lack of information concerning the effectiveness of EEG in classifying long-term (many years) outcome in chronic DOC patients. Here we tested whether EEG operational architectonics parameters (geared towards consciousness phenomenon detection rather than neurophysiological processes) could be useful for distinguishing a very long-term (6 years) clinical outcome of DOC patients whose EEGs were registered within 3 months post-injury. The obtained results suggest that EEG recorded at third month after sustaining brain damage, may contain useful information on the long-term outcome of patients in vegetative state: it could discriminate patients who remain in a persistent vegetative state from patients who reach a minimally conscious state or even recover a full consciousness in a long-term perspective (6 years) post-injury. These findings, if confirmed in further studies, may be pivotal for long-term planning of clinical care, rehabilitative programs, medical-legal decisions concerning the patients, and policy makers. PMID:27347266

  18. Long-Term (Six Years) Clinical Outcome Discrimination of Patients in the Vegetative State Could be Achieved Based on the Operational Architectonics EEG Analysis: A Pilot Feasibility Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fingelkurts, Andrew A; Fingelkurts, Alexander A; Bagnato, Sergio; Boccagni, Cristina; Galardi, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings are increasingly used to evaluate patients with disorders of consciousness (DOC) or assess their prognosis outcome in the short-term perspective. However, there is a lack of information concerning the effectiveness of EEG in classifying long-term (many years) outcome in chronic DOC patients. Here we tested whether EEG operational architectonics parameters (geared towards consciousness phenomenon detection rather than neurophysiological processes) could be useful for distinguishing a very long-term (6 years) clinical outcome of DOC patients whose EEGs were registered within 3 months post-injury. The obtained results suggest that EEG recorded at third month after sustaining brain damage, may contain useful information on the long-term outcome of patients in vegetative state: it could discriminate patients who remain in a persistent vegetative state from patients who reach a minimally conscious state or even recover a full consciousness in a long-term perspective (6 years) post-injury. These findings, if confirmed in further studies, may be pivotal for long-term planning of clinical care, rehabilitative programs, medical-legal decisions concerning the patients, and policy makers.

  19. Pre-operative stroke and neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in infective endocarditis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diab, Mahmoud; Guenther, Albrecht; Sponholz, Christoph; Lehmann, Thomas; Faerber, Gloria; Matz, Anna; Franz, Marcus; Witte, Otto W; Pletz, Mathias W; Doenst, Torsten

    2016-10-01

    Infective endocarditis (IE) is still associated with high morbidity and mortality. The impact of pre-operative stroke on mortality and long-term survival is controversial. In addition, data on the severity of neurological disability due to pre-operative stroke are scarce. We analysed the impact of pre-operative stroke and the severity of its related neurological disability on short- and long-term outcome. We retrospectively reviewed our data from patients operated for left-sided IE between 01/2007 and 04/2013. We performed univariate (Chi-Square and independent samples t test) and multivariate analyses. Among 308 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac surgery for left-sided IE, pre-operative stroke was present in 87 (28.2 %) patients. Patients with pre-operative stroke had a higher pre-operative risk profile than patient without it: higher Charlson comorbidity index (8.1 ± 2.6 vs. 6.6 ± 3.3) and higher incidence of Staphylococcus aureus infection (43 vs. 17 %) and septic shock (37 vs. 19 %). In-hospital mortality was equal but 5-year survival was significantly worse with pre-operative stroke (33.1 % vs. 45 %, p = 0.006). 5-year survival was worst in patients with severe neurological disability compared to mild disability (19.0 vs. 0.58 %, p = 0.002). However, neither pre-operative stroke nor the degree of neurological disability appeared as an independent risk factor for short or long-term mortality by multivariate analysis. Pre-operative stroke and the severity of neurological disability do not independently affect short- and long-term mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. It appears that patients with pre-operative stroke present with a generally higher risk profile. This information may substantially affect decision-making.

  20. Daily activity level improvement with antidepressant medications predicts long-term clinical outcomes in outpatients with major depressive disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jha MK

    2017-03-01

    impairment at week 6 was associated with two to three times higher rates of remission at 3 and 7 months as compared to moderate or severe activity impairment levels even after controlling for remission status at week 6 and select baseline variables. Conclusion: Depressed patients have high levels of nonwork-related activity impairment at baseline that improves significantly with treatment and independently predicts long-term clinical outcomes. Brief systematic assessment of activity impairment during the course of antidepressant treatment can help inform clinical decision-making. Keywords: depression, activity impairment, predictors, functional recovery, productivity

  1. Prognostic value of intra-operative abnormal muscle response monitoring during microvascular decompression for long-term outcome of hemifacial spasm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiping; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhu, Hongwei; Li, Yongjie

    2012-01-01

    The reliability of intra-operative abnormal muscle response (AMR) monitoring as an indicator of post-operative outcome in patients with hemifacial spasm (HFS) is under debate. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between intra-operative AMR changes and long-term post-operative outcome. We monitored intra-operative AMR during microvascular decompression (MVD) in consecutive patients with HFS (n = 104). Patients in this study were divided into two groups based on whether their AMR disappeared or persisted following MVD. Ninety patients were followed-up, and the mean duration from surgery to final follow-up examination was 3.7 years. Fourteen patients were lost to follow-up. AMR disappeared during surgery for 80 patients; of these, 74 achieved complete resolution of HFS, five had persistent HFS, and one patient developed a recurrence of HFS. Of the 10 patients with persistent AMR despite effective MVD, eight patients achieved complete resolution, one patient had persistent HFS, and one developed recurrent HFS. The long-term clinical outcome of HFS after MVD did not significantly correlate with intra-operative AMR changes (p = 0.791). Therefore, we suggest that intra-operative AMR monitoring may not be a reliable indicator of long-term post-operative outcome for HFS.

  2. Improvement of mindfulness skills during Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy predicts long-term reductions of neuroticism in persons with recurrent depression in remission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spinhoven, Philip; Huijbers, Marloes J.; Ormel, Johan; Speckens, Anne E. M.

    2017-01-01

    Background: This study examined whether changes in mindfulness skills following Mindfulness-based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) are predictive of long-term changes in personality traits. Methods: Using data from the MOMENT study, we included 278 participants with recurrent depression in remission allocat

  3. Improvement of mindfulness skills during Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy predicts long-term reductions of neuroticism in persons with recurrent depression in remission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spinhoven, Philip; Huijbers, Marloes J.; Ormel, Johan; Speckens, Anne E. M.

    2017-01-01

    Background: This study examined whether changes in mindfulness skills following Mindfulness-based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) are predictive of long-term changes in personality traits. Methods: Using data from the MOMENT study, we included 278 participants with recurrent depression in remission

  4. An inter-comparison exercise on the capabilities of CFD models to predict the short and long term distribution and mixing of hydrogen in a garage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venetsanos, A.G.; Papanikolaou, E.; Delichatsios, M.; Garcia, J.; Hansen, O.R.; Heitsch, M.; Huser, A.; Jahn, W.; Jordan, T.; Lacome, J.-M.; Ledin, H.S.; Makarov, D.; Middha, P.; Studer, E.; Tchouvelev, A.V.; Teodorczyk, A.; Verbecke, F.; Voort, M.M. van der

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of the CFD inter-comparison exercise SBEP-V3, performed within the activity InsHyde, internal project of the HySafe network of excellence, in the framework of evaluating the capability of various CFD tools and modelling approaches in predicting the short and long term

  5. An external validation of the ETVSS for both short-term and long-term predictive adequacy in 104 pediatric patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breimer, G. E.; Sival, D. A.; Brusse-Keizer, M. G. J.; Hoving, E.W.

    2013-01-01

    PURPOSE: This study aims to provide external validation of the "Endoscopic Third Ventriculostomy Success Score (ETVSS)" for both short-term and long-term predictive adequacy. METHODS: Between 1998 and 2007, we collected clinical follow-up data (after 6 and 36 months) of all 104 hydrocephalic childre

  6. A method to improve the stability and accuracy of ANN- and SVM-based time series models for long-term groundwater level predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Heesung; Hyun, Yunjung; Ha, Kyoochul; Lee, Kang-Kun; Kim, Gyoo-Bum

    2016-05-01

    The prediction of long-term groundwater level fluctuations is necessary to effectively manage groundwater resources and to assess the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on groundwater resources. In the present study, a weighted error function approach was utilised to improve the performance of artificial neural network (ANN)- and support vector machine (SVM)-based recursive prediction models for the long-term prediction of groundwater levels in response to rainfall. The developed time series models were applied to groundwater level data from 5 groundwater-monitoring stations in South Korea. The results demonstrated that the weighted error function approach can improve the stability and accuracy of recursive prediction models, especially for ANN models. The comparison of the model performance showed that the recursive prediction performance of the SVM was superior to the performance of the ANN in this case study.

  7. Long-term survival and risk factors for failure of the native hip joint after operatively treated displaced acetabular fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke-Jenssen, J; Røise, O; Storeggen, S A Ø; Madsen, J E

    2017-06-01

    Our aim in this study was to describe the long-term survival of the native hip joint after open reduction and internal fixation of a displaced fracture of the acetabulum. We also present long-term clinical outcomes and risk factors associated with a poor outcome. A total of 285 patients underwent surgery for a displaced acetabular fracture between 1993 and 2005. For the survival analysis 253 were included, there were 197 men and 56 women with a mean age of 42 years (12 to 78). The mean follow-up of 11 years (1 to 20) was identified from our pelvic fracture registry. There were 99 elementary and 154 associated fracture types. For the long-term clinical follow-up, 192 patients with complete data were included. Their mean age was 40 years (13 to 78) with a mean follow-up of 12 years (5 to 20). Injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction were assessed with CT scans and patients with an ipsilateral fracture of the femoral head were excluded. A total of 36 patients underwent total hip arthroplasty (THA). The overall ten-year survival of the hip joint was 86% (95% confidence interval (CI) 81% to 90%) and the 20-year survival was 82% (95% CI 76% to 87%). Injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction were the strongest predictors of failure, with the long-term survival rate falling towards 50% in these patients. The survival fell to 0% at three years when both these risk factors were present in patients aged > 60 years. The long-term survival of the native hip joint after acetabular fractures was good, but the presence of injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction proved to be strong predictors of failure, especially in patients aged > 60 years. These patients may be better treated with a combination of open reduction and internal fixation and primary arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:834-40. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  8. Estimation of autotrophic maximum specific growth rate constant--experience from the long-term operation of a laboratory-scale sequencing batch reactor system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Yu-min; Makinia, Jacek; Pagilla, Krishna R

    2008-04-01

    The autotrophic maximum specific growth rate constant, muA,max, is the critical parameter for design and performance of nitrifying activated sludge systems. In literature reviews (i.e., Henze et al., 1987; Metcalf and Eddy, 1991), a wide range of muA,max values have been reported (0.25 to 3.0 days(-1)); however, recent data from several wastewater treatment plants across North America revealed that the estimated muA,max values remained in the narrow range 0.85 to 1.05 days(-1). In this study, long-term operation of a laboratory-scale sequencing batch reactor system was investigated for estimating this coefficient according to the low food-to-microorganism ratio bioassay and simulation methods, as recommended in the Water Environment Research Foundation (Alexandria, Virginia) report (Melcer et al., 2003). The estimated muA,max values using steady-state model calculations for four operating periods ranged from 0.83 to 0.99 day(-1). The International Water Association (London, United Kingdom) Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1) dynamic model simulations revealed that a single value of muA,max (1.2 days(-1)) could be used, despite variations in the measured specific nitrification rates. However, the average muA,max was gradually decreasing during the activated sludge chlorination tests, until it reached the value of 0.48 day(-1) at the dose of 5 mg chlorine/(g mixed liquor suspended solids x d). Significant discrepancies between the predicted XA/YA ratios were observed. In some cases, the ASM1 predictions were approximately two times higher than the steady-state model predictions. This implies that estimating this ratio from a complex activated sludge model and using it in simple steady-state model calculations should be accepted with great caution and requires further investigation.

  9. Overseas Contingency Operations: OMB and DOD Should Revise the Criteria for Determining Eligible Costs and Identify the Costs Likely to Endure Long Term

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    fuel costs , and funding to ensure that logistical support to combat operations is not degraded due to cash losses in DoD’s baseline fuel program. Would...OVERSEAS CONTINGENCY OPERATIONS OMB and DOD Should Revise the Criteria for Determining Eligible Costs and Identify the... Costs Likely to Endure Long Term Report to Congressional Requesters January 2017 GAO-17-68 United States Government Accountability

  10. Immediate salbutamol responsiveness does not predict long-term benefits of indacaterol in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgel, Pierre-Régis; Le Gros, Vincent; Decuypère, Laurent; Bourdeix, Isabelle; Perez, Thierry; Deslée, Gaëtan

    2017-01-31

    significant difference between the Rv and NRv groups. Immediate FEV1 response to salbutamol did not predict the long-term benefits observed with indacaterol treatment in patients with COPD. Patients considered reversible or non-reversible to salbutamol showed comparable improvements in lung function, dyspnoea and health-related quality of life. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01272362 . Date: January 5, 2011.

  11. Long-term prediction of reinforced concrete structures - Use of thermodynamic data to assess steel corrosion in carbonated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huet, Bruno [Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et Argiles, DEN/DPC/SCCME/LECBA, Bat. 158, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France)]|[Laboratoire de Physico-Chimie Industrielle, LPCI, INSA de Lyon, Bat. Leonard de Vinci, 20 av. Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex (France); L' Hostis, Valerie; Le Bescop, Patrick [Laboratoire d' Etude du Comportement des Betons et Argiles, DEN/DPC/SCCME/LECBA, Bat. 158, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette cedex (France); Idrissi, Hassane [Laboratoire de Physico-Chimie Industrielle, LPCI, INSA de Lyon, Bat. Leonard de Vinci, 20 av. Albert Einstein, 69621 Villeurbanne cedex (France)

    2004-07-01

    In the context of the prediction of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures involved in the nuclear waste storage, the corrosion mechanisms of the steels have to be assessed and modelled. When nuclear wastes are embedded in reinforced concrete containers, the chemical environment of the reinforcement is progressively modified, due to the diffusion of the carbonation front inside the concrete matrix. This modification leads to the variation of the properties of the iron oxides formed at the steel/concrete interface, and the active corrosion can be initiated. In order to understand and modelled the mechanisms of steel corrosion in concrete, the equilibrium of two main systems must be separately described with the help of thermodynamic data issued from the literature: - The mineral phases, lime and calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H), in equilibrium with the pore solution during the propagation of the carbonation front; - The iron oxides in equilibrium with the aqueous solution. For this purpose, the nature of aqueous species present in the pore solution was calculated in the whole range of pH encountered during the cement paste degradation by carbonation. As a matter of fact, as the pH decreases, calcium concentration decreases and silicates concentration increases due to the calcium carbonate formation and C-S-H dissolution. The pH of a carbonated concrete ranges between 8.3 and 10, depending on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the porosity and the conversion degree of carbonation. In this pH range, the iron oxides equilibria were analysed as a function of the redox potential and aqueous species (carbonates and sulphates present in the solution) present inside the solution. In a reductive solution and in presence of carbonates, the high solubility of iron oxides may prevent passivation or generate the dissolution of the passive film. Moreover, the relevance of thermodynamics calculations has been confirmed by corrosion tests of mild steel

  12. Short-term and long-term thermal prediction of a walking beam furnace using neuro-fuzzy techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banadaki Hamed Dehghan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The walking beam furnace (WBF is one of the most prominent process plants often met in an alloy steel production factory and characterized by high non-linearity, strong coupling, time delay, large time-constant and time variation in its parameter set and structure. From another viewpoint, the WBF is a distributed-parameter process in which the distribution of temperature is not uniform. Hence, this process plant has complicated non-linear dynamic equations that have not worked out yet. In this paper, we propose one-step non-linear predictive model for a real WBF using non-linear black-box sub-system identification based on locally linear neuro-fuzzy (LLNF model. Furthermore, a multi-step predictive model with a precise long prediction horizon (i.e., ninety seconds ahead, developed with application of the sequential one-step predictive models, is also presented for the first time. The locally linear model tree (LOLIMOT which is a progressive tree-based algorithm trains these models. Comparing the performance of the one-step LLNF predictive models with their associated models obtained through least squares error (LSE solution proves that all operating zones of the WBF are of non-linear sub-systems. The recorded data from Iran Alloy Steel factory is utilized for identification and evaluation of the proposed neuro-fuzzy predictive models of the WBF process.

  13. Long-term evolution of techno-social networks: Statistical regularities, predictability and stability of social behaviors

    CERN Document Server

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical laws, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of socia...

  14. Long-term disease control of a non-operable neuroendocrine tumor of the lung with lanreotide: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Fraeyenhove, F; De Droogh, E; Meireson, N; Galdermans, D; Goor, C; Van Acker, F; Mattelaer, C; De Ruyter, V; Schrijvers, D

    2012-09-01

    Bronchopulmonary neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are malignant tumors that represent approximately 20% of all lung cancers. The therapeutic option for advanced or metastatic bronchopulmonary NETs is mainly palliation of symptoms; options need to be individualized and, therefore, rely on the knowledge of multidisciplinary teams. Somatostatin analogs have been widely used in NETs for control of hormonal syndromes and are currently under evaluation for their antiproliferative activity. Here, we present a case of NET of the lung, for which we achieved long-term disease control with a treatment comprising the somatostatin analog lanreotide Autogel(®) in a patient with limited therapeutic options due to considerable comorbidity, while preserving his quality of life.

  15. Presenting symptoms of myocardial infarction predict short- and long-term mortality: the MONICA/KORA Myocardial Infarction Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchberger, Inge; Heier, Margit; Kuch, Bernhard; von Scheidt, Wolfgang; Meisinger, Christa

    2012-12-01

    It is unknown whether clinical outcomes differ with specific symptoms of an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The objective of this study was to investigate the association between 13 self-reported symptoms and 28-day case fatality or long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AMI. The sample consisted of 1,231 men and 415 women aged 25 to 74 years hospitalized with a first-time AMI recruited from a population-based AMI registry. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to assess the relationship between symptom occurrence and 28-day case fatality. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the effects on long-term mortality. Analyses were adjusted for sex, age, type of AMI, diabetes, prehospital delay time, and reperfusion therapy. The median observation time was 4.1 years (interquartile range 15 years). Twenty-eight-day case fatality was 6.1%, and long-term mortality was 10.6%. Patients who experienced fear of death (odds ratio [OR] 0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.47), diaphoresis (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.25-0.82), or nausea (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.22-0.95) had a significantly decreased risk of dying within 28 days, whereas syncope (OR 5.36, 95% CI 2.65-10.85) was associated with a higher risk. A decreased risk for long-term mortality was found for people with pain in the upper abdomen (hazard ratio 0.43, 95% CI 0.19-0.97), whereas dyspnea was related to an increased risk (hazard ratio 1.50, 95% CI 1.11-2.06). The absence of chest symptoms was associated with a 1.85-fold risk for long-term mortality (95% CI 1.13-3.03). Specific symptoms are associated with mortality. Further research is required to illuminate the reasons for this finding. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Long-Term Follow-Up of Nonoperatively and Operatively Treated Acute Primary Patellar Dislocation in Skeletally Immature Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Bengtsson Moström

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The present study reports a long-term follow-up of acute primary patellar dislocation in patients with open physes. The purpose of the study was to evaluate knee function and recurrence rates after surgical and nonsurgical treatment of patellar dislocation. Methods. A total of 51 patients, including 29 girls and 22 boys, who were 9–14 years of age at the time of injury, were retrospectively evaluated. The minimum follow-up time was 5 years. Thigh muscle torque, range of motion, the squat test, the knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome score (KOOS, the Kujala score, and the recurrence rate were registered. Radiological predisposing factors at the time of injury were determined. Results. Quality of life and sports/recreation were the most affected subscales, according to KOOS, and a reduced Kujala score was also observed in all treatment groups. The surgically treated patients had a significantly lower recurrence rate. Those patients also exhibited reduced muscle performance, with a hamstring to quadriceps ratio (H/Q of 1.03. The recurrence rate was not correlated with knee function. Conclusions. Patellar dislocation in children influences subjective knee function in the long term. Surgery appears to reduce the recurrence rate, but subjective knee function was not restored.

  17. Prognostic Nomograms for Pre- and Postoperative Predictions of Long-Term Survival for Patients Who Underwent Liver Resection for Huge Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuntong; Xia, Yong; Li, Jun; Wu, Dong; Wan, Xuying; Wang, Kui; Wu, Mengchao; Liu, Jingfeng; Lau, Wan Yee; Shen, Feng

    2015-11-01

    Liver resection is an effective treatment in select patients with huge hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, diameter ≥10 cm). This study aimed to develop nomograms for pre- and postoperative predictions of overall survival (OS) for these patients. There were 464 consecutive patients who underwent liver resection for huge HCC at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital (EHBH) between January 2008 and December 2009. They were collected and divided into a training cohort (n = 310) and an internal validation cohort (n = 154). Another 90 patients who were operated on at the Fujian Medical University (FMU) between January 2008 and April 2010 served as an external validation cohort. The surgical morbidity, mortality, time to recurrence, and OS were observed. Two prognostic nomograms were developed based separately on the data obtained before and after surgery. Discrimination and predictive accuracy of the models were measured using concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and validation study. The postoperative 4-year tumor recurrence and OS rates were, respectively, 79.0% and 41.2% in the patients from the EHBH and 78.8% and 37.6% in those from the FMU. Independent predictors of OS on multivariable analysis using pre- and postoperative data were respectively incorporated into the 2 nomograms. In the training cohort, calibration curves for the probability of 4-year postoperative survival fitted well. The C-indexes of the pre- and postoperative nomograms in predicting OS were 0.75 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.81), respectively. The internal and external validation studies optimally supported these results. The 2 nomograms achieved accurate pre- or postoperative predictions of long-term survival for patients with huge HCC after liver resection. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. A stochastic approach to long term operation planning of hydrothermal systems; Uma abordagem estocastica para o planejamento a longo prazo da operacao de sistemas hidrotermicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrade, Marinho G. [Sao Paulo Univ., Sao Carlos, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Ciencias Matematicas; Soares, Secundino; Cruz Junior, Gelson da; Vinhal, Cassio D.N. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica

    1996-01-01

    This paper is concerned with long term operation of hydro-thermal power systems. The problem is approached by a deterministic optimization technique coupled to an inflow forecasting model in open-loop feedback framework in monthly basis. The paper aims to compare the solution obtained by this approach and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP), which has been accepted for over than two decades as the better solution to deal with inflow uncertainty in long term planning. The comparison was carried out in systems with a single plant, simulating the operation throughout a period of five years under the historical inflow conditions and evaluating the cost of the complementary thermal generation. Results show that the proposed approach can handle uncertainty as effectively as SDP. Furthermore, it does not require modeling simplification, such as composite reservoirs, to deal with multi hydro plant systems. 10 refs., 1 tab.

  19. Influences of operating conditions on continuous lactulose synthesis in an enzymatic membrane reactor system: A basis prior to long-term operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitanggang, Azis Boing; Drews, Anja; Kraume, Matthias

    2015-06-10

    Lactulose synthesis was performed in a continuous stirred enzymatic membrane reactor. Each investigated operating condition (agitation, pH, feed molar ratio of lactose to fructose (mL/mF ratio), hydraulic residence time (HRT)) had an influence on reaction performances, in terms of lactulose concentration, productivity and selectivity. Lactulose concentration was maximum at an mL/mF ratio of 1/2. Higher than this ratio, synthesis of galactooligosaccharides was promoted rather than lactulose. At mL/mF ratios lower than 1/2, enzyme inhibition was pronounced to the detriment of lactulose production. At 7 or 9h HRT, higher lactulose concentrations were obtained than at shorter HRTs. Applying an mL/mF ratio of 1/2 and an HRT of 9h in a long-term operation, nearly constant lactulose concentration was reached after 23h and lasted up to 32h with a mean concentration of 14.51±0.07g/L and a reaction selectivity of 0.075-0.080mollactulose/molcons.lactose. After 7d, lactulose concentration reduced by 31%. A continuous synthesis of lactulose at lab-scale was shown to be amenable using a membrane reactor process. Moreover, for process evaluation, this study can bridge the gap between batch laboratory scale and continuous full-scale operation regarding lactulose synthesis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Long-Term Disease Control of a Non-Operable Neuroendocrine Tumor of the Lung with Lanreotide: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Van Fraeyenhove

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Bronchopulmonary neuroendocrine tumors (NETs are malignant tumors that represent approximately 20% of all lung cancers. The therapeutic option for advanced or metastatic bronchopulmonary NETs is mainly palliation of symptoms; options need to be individualized and, therefore, rely on the knowledge of multidisciplinary teams. Somatostatin analogs have been widely used in NETs for control of hormonal syndromes and are currently under evaluation for their antiproliferative activity. Here, we present a case of NET of the lung, for which we achieved long-term disease control with a treatment comprising the somatostatin analog lanreotide Autogel® in a patient with limited therapeutic options due to considerable comorbidity, while preserving his quality of life.

  1. Impact of operative and peri-operative factors on the long-term prognosis of primary liver cancer patients undergoing hepatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Li-Ning; Xu, Ying-Ying; Gao, De-Wei

    2016-08-01

    This study examined the impact of the operative and peri-operative factors on the long-term prognosis of patients with primary liver cancer undergoing hepatectomy. A total of 222 patients with primary liver cancer who underwent hepatectomy were followed up from January 1986 to December 2010 at Chinese PLA General Hospital. The post-operative complication rate was 14.0% for all cases, 13.7% for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 10.0% for cholangiocarcinoma. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year overall survival rates in patients with primary liver cancer after resection were 76.6%, 57.6%, 41.4%, and 21.0%. The survival rates were significantly higher in the HCC group than in the cholangiocarcinoma group (P=0.000), in the non-anatomical resection group than in the anatomical resection group (P=0.005), in the female group than in the male group (P=0.002), in patients receiving no blood transfusion than in those who were given intra-operative blood transfusion (P=0.000), in patients whose intra-operative blood loss was less than 400 mL than in those who intra-operatively lost more than 400 mL (P=0.000). No significant difference was found in the survival rate between the HBsAg-positive group and the HBsAg-negative group (P=0.532). Our study showed that anatomical resection, blood loss and blood transfusion were predictors of poor survival after hepatectomy for primary liver cancer patients, and concomitant hepatitis B virus infection bore no relation with the post-resection survival.

  2. Predictive Potential of Preoperative Nutritional Status in Long-Term Outcome Projections for Patients with Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, Katsunobu; Ohira, Masaichi; Tamura, Tatsuro; Toyokawa, Takahiro; Amano, Ryosuke; Kubo, Naoshi; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Muguruma, Kazuya; Yashiro, Masakazu; Maeda, Kiyoshi; Hirakawa, Kosei

    2016-02-01

    Preoperative nutritional status not only correlates with the incidence of postoperative complications but also may be indicative of long-term outcomes for patients with cancer. The impact of preoperative nutritional status on outcomes for patients undergoing gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC) was investigated. The study reviewed 594 patients treated for GC by gastrectomy at the authors' hospital between January, 2004 and December, 2010. Onodera's prognostic nutritional index (PNI) was invoked, using an optimal cut point to group patients as having high (PNI > 45; n = 449) or low (PNI ≤ 45; n = 145) nutritional status. Clinicopathologic features, perioperative results, and long-term outcomes, including cause of death, were compared. Multivariate analysis of 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) indicated that low PNI was independently associated with unfavorable outcomes for patients with GC. In subgroup analysis, the 5-year OS and DSS rates for patients with GC at stages 1 and 2 were significantly worse in the low PNI group than in the high PNI group. Although wound and extrasurgical field infections also tended to be more frequent in the low PNI group, postoperative intraabdominal infections did not differ significantly by group. Preoperative PNI may have merit as a gauge of prognosis for patients with GC at stages 1 and 2, but PNI and postoperative morbidity showed no correlation in this setting.

  3. Metabolic Profiling of Human Long-Term Liver Models and Hepatic Clearance Predictions from In Vitro Data Using Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratochwil, Nicole A; Meille, Christophe; Fowler, Stephen; Klammers, Florian; Ekiciler, Aynur; Molitor, Birgit; Simon, Sandrine; Walter, Isabelle; McGinnis, Claudia; Walther, Johanna; Leonard, Brian; Triyatni, Miriam; Javanbakht, Hassan; Funk, Christoph; Schuler, Franz; Lavé, Thierry; Parrott, Neil J

    2017-03-01

    Early prediction of human clearance is often challenging, in particular for the growing number of low-clearance compounds. Long-term in vitro models have been developed which enable sophisticated hepatic drug disposition studies and improved clearance predictions. Here, the cell line HepG2, iPSC-derived hepatocytes (iCell®), the hepatic stem cell line HepaRG™, and human hepatocyte co-cultures (HμREL™ and HepatoPac®) were compared to primary hepatocyte suspension cultures with respect to their key metabolic activities. Similar metabolic activities were found for the long-term models HepaRG™, HμREL™, and HepatoPac® and the short-term suspension cultures when averaged across all 11 enzyme markers, although differences were seen in the activities of CYP2D6 and non-CYP enzymes. For iCell® and HepG2, the metabolic activity was more than tenfold lower. The micropatterned HepatoPac® model was further evaluated with respect to clearance prediction. To assess the in vitro parameters, pharmacokinetic modeling was applied. The determination of intrinsic clearance by nonlinear mixed-effects modeling in a long-term model significantly increased the confidence in the parameter estimation and extended the sensitive range towards 3% of liver blood flow, i.e., >10-fold lower as compared to suspension cultures. For in vitro to in vivo extrapolation, the well-stirred model was used. The micropatterned model gave rise to clearance prediction in man within a twofold error for the majority of low-clearance compounds. Further research is needed to understand whether transporter activity and drug metabolism by non-CYP enzymes, such as UGTs, SULTs, AO, and FMO, is comparable to the in vivo situation in these long-term culture models.

  4. Endoscopic thoracic sympathectomy for primary hyperhidrosis of the upper limbs. A critical analysis and long-term results of 480 operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, F; Plas, E G; Függer, R; Fritsch, A

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This evaluated the long-term outcome after endoscopic thoracic sympathectomy (ETS) from below D1 to D4, using a single-site access technique for primary hyperhidrosis of the upper limbs. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Primary hyperhidrosis of the upper limbs is a distressing and often socially disabling condition. Endoscopic thoracic sympathectomy is considered the treatment of choice, causing minimal morbidity and high initial success rates. However, data regarding long-term results are scarce. METHODS: Two hundred seventy of 323 patients (83.7%), in whom 480 sympathectomies were performed, answered a questionnaire after a mean of 14.6 years postoperatively regarding the early postoperative result, side effects, and complications caused by the operation and long-term results with particular emphasis on patient satisfaction. RESULTS: There was no postoperative mortality and no major complications requiring surgical reintervention. A majority of the patients (98.1%) were relieved, and 95.5% were satisfied initially. Permanent side effects included compensatory sweating in 67.4%, gustatory sweating in 50.7% and Horner's trias in 2.5%. However, patient satisfaction declined over time, although only 1.5% recurred. This left only 66.7% satisfied, and a 26.7% partially satisfied. Compensatory and gustatory sweating were the most frequently stated reasons for dissatisfaction. Individuals operated for axillary hyperhidrosis without palmar involvement were significantly less satisfied (33.3% and 46.2%, respectively). PMID:8024363

  5. Nonresponse to pre-operative chemotherapy does not preclude long-term survival after liver resection in patients with colorectal liver metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Ulf P; Thelen, Armin; Röcken, Christoph; Seehofer, Daniel; Bahra, Marcus; Riess, Hanno; Jonas, Sven; Schmeding, Maximilian; Pratschke, Johann; Bova, Roberta; Neuhaus, Peter

    2009-07-01

    Liver resection is the only curative treatment offering a chance of long-term survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRM). Recent data indicated that liver resection in patients with tumor progression while receiving chemotherapy was associated with poor outcome. The aim of the study was to identify risk factors for poor outcome in patients with pre-operative chemotherapy of CRM. We analyzed 160 patients after liver resection for CRM with preoperative systemic. chemotherapy. Three groups of patients were identified: 44 patients (27.5%) had a tumor response, 20 (12.5%) showed stable disease, and 96 (60%) patients had tumor progression while on chemotherapy. Median follow-up was 2.4 years (range, 6 days-11.1 years). All available clinicopathologic variables possibly associated with outcome were evaluated. Survival was 88%, 53%, and 37% at 1, 3, and 5 years. Noncurative resection, carcinoembryonic antigen levels >200 ng/ml, tumor grading, size of the largest tumor >5 cm, and number of metastases were associated with poor patient outcome. In the multivariate analysis, tumor free margin and tumor grading correlated with the outcome. Tumor progression while on chemotherapy had no influence on the long-term survival. Liver resection offers a long-term survival benefit for patients with CRM, even when tumor growth proceeds during pre-operative chemotherapy.

  6. Value of long-term streamflow forecast to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated catchments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Voisin, Nathalie; Castelletti, Andrea F.; Pianosi, Francesca; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2016-04-12

    In this study, we develop a forecast-based adaptive control framework for Oroville reservoir, California, to assess the value of seasonal and inter-annual forecasts for reservoir operation.We use an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to generate retrospective, one-year-long streamflow forecasts based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model. The optimal sequence of daily release decisions from the reservoir is then determined by Model Predictive Control, a flexible and adaptive optimization scheme.We assess the forecast value by comparing system performance based on the ESP forecasts with that based on climatology and a perfect forecast. In addition, we evaluate system performance based on a synthetic forecast, which is designed to isolate the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual forecast skill to the overall value of the ESP forecasts.Using the same ESP forecasts, we generalize our results by evaluating forecast value as a function of forecast skill, reservoir features, and demand. Our results show that perfect forecasts are valuable when the water demand is high and the reservoir is sufficiently large to allow for annual carry-over. Conversely, ESP forecast value is highest when the reservoir can shift water on a seasonal basis.On average, for the system evaluated here, the overall ESP value is 35% less than the perfect forecast value. The inter-annual component of the ESP forecast contributes 20-60% of the total forecast value. Improvements in the seasonal component of the ESP forecast would increase the overall ESP forecast value between 15 and 20%.

  7. Long-term effectiveness and prediction of treatment outcome in cognitive behavioral therapy and sertraline for late-life anxiety disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuurmans, Josien; Comijs, Hannie; Emmelkamp, Paul M G; Weijnen, Ingrid J C; van den Hout, Marcel; van Dyck, Richard

    2009-12-01

    Although anxiety disorders are prevalent in older adults, randomized controlled trials of treatment effectiveness for late-life anxiety are scarce and have focused primarily on the effectiveness of psychotherapeutic interventions. However, recent findings suggest that in some cases, pharmacological treatment may be more beneficial for late-life anxiety disorders. As yet, there have been no systematic studies investigating prognostic factors for the outcome of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and pharmacotherapy for late-life anxiety. The objective of the present study was to study long-term treatment outcomes and to explore differential predictors for both short-term and long-term treatment outcomes of sertraline and CBT for late-life anxiety disorders. Participants of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing sertraline and CBT for the treatment of late-life anxiety were contacted one year after completing their treatment, so that predictors for both short-term and long-term treatment outcome could be established. Sertraline showed a greater reduction of symptoms than CBT on anxiety (Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale; HARS) and worry (Worry Domain Questionnaire) ratings at one-year follow-up. The strongest predictor for short-term CBT outcome was poor perceived health, explaining 40% of the variance in post-treatment residual gain scores on the HARS. The strongest predictor for long-term CBT outcome was neuroticism, explaining 20% of the variance in residual gain scores at one-year follow-up. Analyses revealed no significant predictors for treatment outcome in sertraline participants. Our study suggests that long-term use of sertraline might be more beneficial for late-life anxiety than a 15-week CBT program. Poor perceived health and neuroticism are predictive of less improvement after CBT in anxious older adults. Implications of these findings are discussed.

  8. Effect of biogas sparging on the performance of bio-hydrogen reactor over a long-term operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nualsri, Chatchawin; Kongjan, Prawit; Reungsang, Alissara; Imai, Tsuyoshi

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to enhance hydrogen production from sugarcane syrup by biogas sparging. Two-stage continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) and upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor were used to produce hydrogen and methane, respectively. Biogas produced from the UASB was used to sparge into the CSTR. Results indicated that sparging with biogas increased the hydrogen production rate (HPR) by 35% (from 17.1 to 23.1 L/L.d) resulted from a reduction in the hydrogen partial pressure. A fluctuation of HPR was observed during a long term monitoring because CO2 in the sparging gas and carbon source in the feedstock were consumed by Enterobacter sp. to produce succinic acid without hydrogen production. Mixed gas released from the CSTR after the sparging can be considered as bio-hythane (H2+CH4). In addition, a continuous sparging biogas into CSTR release a partial pressure in the headspace of the methane reactor. In consequent, the methane production rate is increased.

  9. Microbial and mineral evolution in zero valent iron-based permeable reactive barriers during long-term operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Naresh; Millot, Romain; Battaglia-Brunet, Fabienne; Omoregie, Enoma; Chaurand, Perrine; Borschneck, Daniel; Bastiaens, Leen; Rose, Jérôme

    2016-03-01

    Impacts of subsurface biogeochemical processes over time have always been a concern for the long-term performance of zero valent iron (Fe(0))-based permeable reactive barriers (PRBs). To evaluate the biogeochemical impacts, laboratory experiments were performed using flow-through glass columns for 210 days at controlled temperature (20 °C). Two different particle sizes of Fe(0) were used in the columns, and to simulate indigenous microbial activity, extra carbon source was provided in the two columns (biotic columns) and the remaining two columns were kept abiotic using gamma radiations. Heavy metals (Zn, As) were removed efficiently in all the columns, and no exhaustion of treatment capability or clogging was observed during our experimental duration. Newly formed Fe mineral phases and precipitates were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDX), and micro-XRF techniques in solid phase at the end of the experiment. In addition, 16S rRNA gene extraction was used for microbial community identification in biotic columns. During the incubation, microbial population shifted in favor of Desulfosporosinus species (sulfate-reducing bacteria) from initial dominance of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans in sediments. Dominant mineral phases detected in biotic columns were mackinawite (FeS) and sulfate green rust, while in abiotic columns, magnetite/maghemite phases were more prevalent.

  10. Effect of biogas sparging on the performance of bio-hydrogen reactor over a long-term operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nualsri, Chatchawin; Kongjan, Prawit; Imai, Tsuyoshi

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to enhance hydrogen production from sugarcane syrup by biogas sparging. Two-stage continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) and upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor were used to produce hydrogen and methane, respectively. Biogas produced from the UASB was used to sparge into the CSTR. Results indicated that sparging with biogas increased the hydrogen production rate (HPR) by 35% (from 17.1 to 23.1 L/L.d) resulted from a reduction in the hydrogen partial pressure. A fluctuation of HPR was observed during a long term monitoring because CO2 in the sparging gas and carbon source in the feedstock were consumed by Enterobacter sp. to produce succinic acid without hydrogen production. Mixed gas released from the CSTR after the sparging can be considered as bio-hythane (H2+CH4). In addition, a continuous sparging biogas into CSTR release a partial pressure in the headspace of the methane reactor. In consequent, the methane production rate is increased. PMID:28207755

  11. Long-term operation of a novel pilot-scale six tanks alternately operating activated sludge process in treating domestic wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, R N; Abu-Alhail, S; Xi-Wu, L

    2014-08-01

    The performance of a new pilot-scale six tanks activated sludge process has been evaluated for 303 d, receiving real domestic wastewater with a flow rate of 15-24.4 L/h. Partial nitrification via nitrite and microbial community structure were investigated in this system. The result shows that the nitrite accumulation rate was achieved successfully over 94% in the last aerobic compartment through a combination of short hydraulic retention time and low dissolved oxygen (DO) level. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis was used to correlate ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) numbers with nutrient removal via nitrite. It was shown that in response to complete and partial nitrification modes, the numbers of AOB population were 7.7 x 10(7) cells/g mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS) and 5.31 x 10(8) cells/g MLSS, respectively. The morphology of the sludge indicated that there is a small rod-shaped and spherical cluster which was mainly dominantly bacterial according to scanning electron microscope. Higher pollutant removal efficiencies of 86.2%, 98%, and 96.1%, for total nitrogen, NH4+ - N, and total phosphorus, respectively, were achieved by a long-term operation of the six tanks activated sludge process at a low DO concentration and low chemical oxygen demand to nitrogen ratio which were approximately equal to the complete nitrification-ldenitrification with the addition of an external carbon source at a concentration of 1.5-2.5 mg/L.

  12. Historical Prediction Modeling Approach for Estimating Long-Term Concentrations of PM2.5 in Cohort Studies before the 1999 Implementation of Widespread Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun-Young; Olives, Casey; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D; Larson, Timothy V; Keller, Joshua P; Kaufman, Joel D

    2017-01-01

    Recent cohort studies have used exposure prediction models to estimate the association between long-term residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and health. Because these prediction models rely on PM2.5 monitoring data, predictions for times before extensive spatial monitoring present a challenge to understanding long-term exposure effects. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Federal Reference Method (FRM) network for PM2.5 was established in 1999. We evaluated a novel statistical approach to produce high-quality exposure predictions from 1980 through 2010 in the continental United States for epidemiological applications. We developed spatio-temporal prediction models using geographic predictors and annual average PM2.5 data from 1999 through 2010 from the FRM and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks. Temporal trends before 1999 were estimated by using a) extrapolation based on PM2.5 data in FRM/IMPROVE, b) PM2.5 sulfate data in the Clean Air Status and Trends Network, and c) visibility data across the Weather Bureau Army Navy network. We validated the models using PM2.5 data collected before 1999 from IMPROVE, California Air Resources Board dichotomous sampler monitoring (CARB dichot), the Children's Health Study (CHS), and the Inhalable Particulate Network (IPN). In our validation using pre-1999 data, the prediction model performed well across three trend estimation approaches when validated using IMPROVE and CHS data (R2 = 0.84-0.91) with lower R2 values in early years. Model performance using CARB dichot and IPN data was worse (R2 = 0.00-0.85) most likely because of fewer monitoring sites and inconsistent sampling methods. Our prediction modeling approach will allow health effects estimation associated with long-term exposures to PM2.5 over extended time periods ≤ 30 years. Citation: Kim SY, Olives C, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Larson TV, Keller JP, Kaufman JD. 2017. Historical prediction

  13. Long-term collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  14. Long-term stability of underground operated CZT detectors based on the analysis of intrinsic {sup 113}Cd β{sup −}-decay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebert, J. [Universität Hamburg, Institut für Experimentalphysik, Luruper Chaussee 149, 22761 Hamburg (Germany); Gößling, C. [Technische Universität Dortmund, Lehrstuhl für Experimentelle Physik IV, Otto-Hahn-Str 4, 44221 Dortmund (Germany); Gehre, D., E-mail: daniel.gehre@tu-dresden.de [Technische Universität Dresden, Institut für Kern- und Teilchenphysik, Zellescher Weg 19, 01069 Dresden (Germany); Hagner, C.; Heidrich, N. [Universität Hamburg, Institut für Experimentalphysik, Luruper Chaussee 149, 22761 Hamburg (Germany); Klingenberg, R.; Kröninger, K.; Nitsch, C. [Technische Universität Dortmund, Lehrstuhl für Experimentelle Physik IV, Otto-Hahn-Str 4, 44221 Dortmund (Germany); Oldorf, C. [Universität Hamburg, Institut für Experimentalphysik, Luruper Chaussee 149, 22761 Hamburg (Germany); Quante, T.; Rajek, S. [Technische Universität Dortmund, Lehrstuhl für Experimentelle Physik IV, Otto-Hahn-Str 4, 44221 Dortmund (Germany); Rebber, H.; Rohatsch, K. [Universität Hamburg, Institut für Experimentalphysik, Luruper Chaussee 149, 22761 Hamburg (Germany); Tebrügge, J.; Temminghoff, R.; Theinert, R. [Technische Universität Dortmund, Lehrstuhl für Experimentelle Physik IV, Otto-Hahn-Str 4, 44221 Dortmund (Germany); and others

    2016-06-11

    The COBRA collaboration operates a demonstrator setup at the underground facility Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS, located in Italy) to prove the technological capabilities of this concept for the search for neutrinoless double beta-decay. The setup consists of 64 (1×1×1) cm{sup 3} Cadmium-Zinc-Telluride (CZT) detectors in Coplanar-Grid (CPG) configuration. One purpose of this demonstrator is to test if reliable long-term operation of CZT-CPG detectors in such a setup is possible. The demonstrator has been operated under ultra low-background conditions for more than three years and collected data corresponding to a total exposure of 218 kg days. The presented study focuses on the long-term stability of CZT detectors by analyzing the intrinsic, fourfold forbidden non-unique {sup 113}Cd single beta-decay. It can be shown that CZT detectors can be operated stably for long periods of time and that the {sup 113}Cd single beta-decay can be used as an internal monitor of the detector performance during the runtime of the experiment.

  15. Cerebrospinal fluid markers of neuronal and glial cell damage to monitor disease activity and predict long-term outcome in patients with autoimmune encephalitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantinescu, R; Krýsl, D; Bergquist, F; Andrén, K; Malmeström, C; Asztély, F; Axelsson, M; Menachem, E B; Blennow, K; Rosengren, L; Zetterberg, H

    2016-04-01

    Clinical symptoms and long-term outcome of autoimmune encephalitis are variable. Diagnosis requires multiple investigations, and treatment strategies must be individually tailored. Better biomarkers are needed for diagnosis, to monitor disease activity and to predict long-term outcome. The value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers of neuronal [neurofilament light chain protein (NFL), and total tau protein (T-tau)] and glial cell [glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)] damage in patients with autoimmune encephalitis was investigated. Demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, CSF and antibody-related data of 25 patients hospitalized for autoimmune encephalitis and followed for 1 year were retrospectively collected. Correlations between these data and consecutive CSF levels of NFL, T-tau and GFAP were investigated. Disability, assessed by the modified Rankin scale, was used for evaluation of disease activity and long-term outcome. The acute stage of autoimmune encephalitis was accompanied by high CSF levels of NFL and T-tau, whereas normal or significantly lower levels were observed after clinical improvement 1 year later. NFL and T-tau reacted in a similar way but at different speeds, with T-tau reacting faster. CSF levels of GFAP were initially moderately increased but did not change significantly later on. Final outcome (disability at 1 year) directly correlated with CSF-NFL and CSF-GFAP levels at all time-points and with CSF-T-tau at 3 ± 1 months. This correlation remained significant after age adjustment for CSF-NFL and T-tau but not for GFAP. In autoimmune encephalitis, CSF levels of neuronal and glial cell damage markers appear to reflect disease activity and long-term disability. © 2016 EAN.

  16. Long-term population dynamics and in situ physiology in activated sludge systems with enhanced biological phosphorus removal operated with and without nitrogen removal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, N.; Nielsen, P.H.; Aspegren, H.

    2003-01-01

    Quantitative fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and the combination of FISH with microautoradiography (MAR) were used in order to study the long-term population dynamics (2.5 years) and the in situ physiology in two parallel activated sludge pilot systems with enhanced biological phosphorus...... removal (EBPR). The two systems received the same influent wastewater, but were differently operated (with and without nitrogen removal, respectively). Both systems showed a significant P removal that increased when different substrates (phosphorus (P), acetate and glucose, respectively) were added...

  17. An alternative to fully coupled reactive transport simulations for long-term prediction of chemical reactions in complex geological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Kühn, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Fully-coupled reactive transport simulations involving multiphase hydrodynamics and chemical reactions in heterogeneous settings are extremely challenging from a computational point of view. This often leads to oversimplification of the investigated system: coarse spatial discretization, to keep the number of elements in the order of few thousands; simplified chemistry, disregarding many potentially important reactions. A novel approach for coupling non-reactive hydrodynamic simulations with the outcome of single batch geochemical simulations was therefore introduced to assess the potential long-term mineral trapping at the Ketzin pilot site for underground CO2 storage in Germany [1],[2]. The advantage of the coupling is the ability to use multi-million grid non-reactive hydrodynamics simulations on one side and few batch 0D geochemical simulations on the other, so that the complexity of both systems does not need to be reduced. This contribution shows the approach which was taken to validate this simplified coupling scheme. The procedure involved batch simulations of the reference geochemical model, then performing both non-reactive and fully coupled 1D and 3D reactive transport simulations and finally applying the simplified coupling scheme based on the non-reactive and geochemical batch model. The TOUGHREACT/ECO2N [3] simulator was adopted for the validation. The degree of refinement of the spatial grid and the complexity and velocity of the mineral reactions, along with a cut-off value for the minimum concentration of dissolved CO2 allowed to originate precipitates in the simplified approach were found out to be the governing parameters for the convergence of the two schemes. Systematic discrepancies between the approaches are not reducible, simply because there is no feedback between chemistry and hydrodynamics, and can reach 20 % - 30 % in unfavourable cases. However, even such discrepancy is completely acceptable, in our opinion, given the amount of

  18. SPECIFIC DEGRADATION STRUCTURE FEATURES AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF FURNACE AND HEAT POWER EQUIPMENT ELEMENTS AFTER LONG-TERM OPERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Panteleenko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of investigations on structure and mechanical properties of technological equipment elements made of heat-resistant steels. A scale of chrome and molybdenum steel microstructure degradation based on evaluation of  coagulated carbide size and material mechanical properties (a point from 0-operation without time limits, up to 4-operation prohibition has been proposed in the paper. It has been  established that an analysis of  steel microstructure directly on equipment elements by means of a portable microscope is an efficient express method for evaluation of equipment condition and structures due to control of material structure degradation rate of a diagnosed object.

  19. GEOSAF Part II. Demonstration of the operational and long-term safety of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste. IAEA international intercomparison and harmonization project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumano, Yumiko; Bruno, Gerard [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria). Vienna International Centre; Tichauer, Michael [IRSN, Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Hedberg, Bengt [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2015-07-01

    International intercomparison and harmonization projects are one of the mechanisms developed by the IAEA for examining the application and use of safety standards, with a view to ensuring their effectiveness and working towards harmonization of approaches to the safety of radioactive waste management. The IAEA has organized a number of international projects on the safety of radioactive waste management; in particular on the issues related to safety demonstration for radioactive waste management facilities. In 2008, GEOSAF, Demonstration of The Operational and Long-Term Safety of Geological Disposal Facilities for Radioactive Waste, project was initiated. This project was completed in 2011 by delivering a project report focusing on the safety case for geological disposal facilities, a concept that has gained in recent years considerable prominence in the waste management area and is addressed in several international safety standards. During the course of the project, it was recognized that little work was undertaken internationally to develop a common view on the safety approach related to the operational phase of a geological disposal although long-term safety of disposal facility has been discussed for several decades. Upon completion of the first part of the GEOSAF project, it was decided to commence a follow-up project aiming at harmonizing approaches on the safety of geological disposal facilities for radioactive waste through the development of an integrated safety case covering both operational and long-term safety. The new project was named as GEOSAF Part II, which was initiated in 2012 initially as 2-year project, involving regulators and operators. GEOSAF Part II provides a forum to exchange ideas and experience on the development and review of an integrated operational and post-closure safety case for geological disposal facilities. It also aims at providing a platform for knowledge transfer. The project is of particular interest to regulatory

  20. Long-term Predictive Ability of Bankruptcy Models in the Czech Republic: Evidence from 2007-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondřej Machek

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy models are a common tool of financial analysis to predict the financial distress of companies. However, in the recent years, the instability and risk of the overall economic environment have underlined the need for accurate tools to predict bankruptcy and assess the overall performance of companies. In this article, we analyze the ex-ante predictive ability of selected bankruptcy and solvency models commonly used in financial analysis: Kralicek quick test, Taffler model, the IN99 and IN05 indexes, and Altman Z’-score models in the case of Czech companies from 2007 to 2012. We determined the percentage of cases when these models correctly predicted failures of companies up to five years in advance, and found that the IN05 and IN99 credibility indexes provided the best results, as well as the Altman Z’-score model. However, the predictive ability of the Taffler model and Kralicek quicktest has only been limited.

  1. Long-term operation of biological activated carbon pre-treatment for microfiltration of secondary effluent: Correlation between the organic foulants and fouling potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramanik, Biplob Kumar; Roddick, Felicity A; Fan, Linhua

    2016-03-01

    The impact of long-term (>2 years) biological activated carbon (BAC) treatment for mitigating organic fouling in the microfiltration of biologically treated secondary effluent was investigated. Correlation between the organic constituents and hydraulic filtration resistance was investigated to identify the major components responsible for fouling. Over two years operation, the removal efficiency for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) by the BAC treatment was fairly consistent (30 ± 3%), although the reduction in UVA254 gradually decreased from 56 to 34%. BAC treatment effectively decreased the organic foulants in the effluent and so contributed to the mitigation of membrane fouling as shown by reduction in the unified membrane fouling index (UMFI). BAC consistently removed biopolymers whereas the removal of humic substances decreased from 52 to 25% after two years of BAC operation, and thus led to a gradual decrease in UMFI reduction efficiency from 78 to 43%. This was due to gradual reduction in adsorption capacity of the activated carbon as confirmed by analysis of its pore size distribution. Hence humics also played an important role in membrane fouling. However, there was a good correlation between protein and carbohydrate contents with hydraulically reversible and irreversible filtration resistance, compared with UVA254, turbidity and DOC. Although the mitigation of membrane fouling decreased over time, this study demonstrated that the long-term use of BAC pre-treatment of biologically treated secondary effluent prior to microfiltration has potential to reduce the need for frequent chemical cleaning and so increase membrane life span.

  2. Functional Analysis in Long-Term Operation of High Power UV-LEDs in Continuous Fluoro-Sensing Systems for Hydrocarbon Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arques-Orobon, Francisco Jose; Nuñez, Neftali; Vazquez, Manuel; Gonzalez-Posadas, Vicente

    2016-02-26

    This work analyzes the long-term functionality of HP (High-power) UV-LEDs (Ultraviolet Light Emitting Diodes) as the exciting light source in non-contact, continuous 24/7 real-time fluoro-sensing pollutant identification in inland water. Fluorescence is an effective alternative in the detection and identification of hydrocarbons. The HP UV-LEDs are more advantageous than classical light sources (xenon and mercury lamps) and helps in the development of a low cost, non-contact, and compact system for continuous real-time fieldwork. This work analyzes the wavelength, output optical power, and the effects of viscosity, temperature of the water pollutants, and the functional consistency for long-term HP UV-LED working operation. To accomplish the latter, an analysis of the influence of two types 365 nm HP UV-LEDs degradation under two continuous real-system working mode conditions was done, by temperature Accelerated Life Tests (ALTs). These tests estimate the mean life under continuous working conditions of 6200 h and for cycled working conditions (30 s ON & 30 s OFF) of 66,000 h, over 7 years of 24/7 operating life of hydrocarbon pollution monitoring. In addition, the durability in the face of the internal and external parameter system variations is evaluated.

  3. Long-term operation of a solid oxide cell stack for coelectrolysis of steam and CO2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agersted, Karsten; Chen, Ming; Blennow, Peter

    2016-01-01

    High temperature electrolysis based on solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) is a promising technology for production of synthetic fuels. The SOEC units can be used for co-electrolysis of steam and CO2 to produce synthesis gas (syngas, CO+H2), which can be further processed to a variety of synth......High temperature electrolysis based on solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) is a promising technology for production of synthetic fuels. The SOEC units can be used for co-electrolysis of steam and CO2 to produce synthesis gas (syngas, CO+H2), which can be further processed to a variety...... of synthetic fuels such as methane, methanol or DME. Previously we have reported electrolysis operation of solid oxide cell stacks for periods up to about 1000 hours. In this work, operation of a Haldor Topsoe 8-cell stack (stack design of 2014) in co-electrolysis mode for 6000 hours is reported. The stack...

  4. Long-term meditation training induced changes in the operational synchrony of default mode network modules during a resting state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fingelkurts, Andrew A; Fingelkurts, Alexander A; Kallio-Tamminen, Tarja

    2016-02-01

    Using theoretical analysis of self-consciousness concept and experimental evidence on the brain default mode network (DMN) that constitutes the neural signature of self-referential processes, we hypothesized that the anterior and posterior subnets comprising the DMN should show differences in their integrity as a function of meditation training. Functional connectivity within DMN and its subnets (measured by operational synchrony) has been measured in ten novice meditators using an electroencephalogram (EEG) recording in a pre-/post-meditation intervention design. We have found that while the whole DMN was clearly suppressed, different subnets of DMN responded differently after 4 months of meditation training: The strength of EEG operational synchrony in the right and left posterior modules of the DMN decreased in resting post-meditation condition compared to a pre-meditation condition, whereas the frontal DMN module on the contrary exhibited an increase in the strength of EEG operational synchrony. These findings combined with published data on functional-anatomic heterogeneity within the DMN and on trait subjective experiences commonly found following meditation allow us to propose that the first-person perspective and the sense of agency (the witnessing observer) are presented by the frontal DMN module, while the posterior modules of the DMN are generally responsible for the experience of the continuity of 'I' as embodied and localized within bodily space. Significance of these findings is discussed.

  5. Microbial diversity analysis of long term operated biofilm configured anaerobic reactor producing biohydrogen from wastewater under diverse conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venkata Mohan, S.; Raghavulu, S. Veer; Goud, R. Kannaiah; Srikanth, S.; Babu, V. Lalit; Sarma, P.N. [Bioengineering and Environmental Centre (BEEC), Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (IICT), Hyderabad 500 607 (India)

    2010-11-15

    This communication provides an insight into the composition of the microbial community survived in the biofilm configured anaerobic reactor operated for biohydrogen (H{sub 2}) production using wastewater as substrate under diverse conditions for past four years. PCR amplified 16S rDNA product (at variable V3 region using universal primers 341F and 517R) was separated by using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) to identify the diversity in microbial population survived. The phyologenetic profile of the bioreactor showed significant diversity in the microbial community where major nucleotide sequences were affiliated to Class Clostridia followed by Bacteroidetes, Deltaproteobacteria and Flavobacteria. Clostridium were found to be dominant in the microbial community observed. The controlled growth conditions, application of pre-treatment to biocatalyst, operation with specific pH and variation in substrate composition are reasoned for the robust acidogenic culture identified in the bioreactor. Most of the operational taxonomic units (OTUs) observed in the bioreactor are capable to undergo acetate producing pathway, feasible for effective H{sub 2} production. (author)

  6. Inflammatory Activity on Natalizumab Predicts Short-Term but Not Long-Term Disability in Multiple Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffel, Joel; Gafson, Arie R; Dahdaleh, Samer; Malik, Omar; Jones, Brynmor; Nicholas, Richard

    2017-01-01

    In people with multiple sclerosis treated with interferon-beta or glatiramer acetate, new MRI lesions and relapses during the first year of treatment predict a poor prognosis. To study this association in those receiving natalizumab. Data were collected on relapses, new MRI activity, and Modified Rio Score after initiation of natalizumab in an observational cohort of 161 patients with high baseline disability. These were correlated with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression at years 1, 2, 3, and 3-7 after treatment initiation, versus pre-treatment baseline. 46/161 patients had a relapse in the first year and 44/161 had EDSS progression by year 2. Relapses and Modified Rio Score in the first year of treatment predicted EDSS progression at year 1 and 2 after treatment initiation. However, this effect disappeared with longer follow-up. Paradoxically, there was a trend towards inflammatory activity on treatment (first year Modified Rio Score, relapses, and MRI activity) predicting a lower risk of EDSS progression by years 3-7, although this did not reach statistical significance. Those with and without EDSS progression did not differ in baseline age, EDSS, or pre-treatment relapse rate. Relapses in year 0-1 predicted further relapses in years 1-3. Breakthrough inflammatory activity after natalizumab treatment is predictive of short-term outcome measures of relapses or EDSS progression, but does not predict longer term EDSS progression, in this cohort with high baseline disability.

  7. Operational Simulation Tools and Long Term Strategic Planning for High Penetrations of PV in the Southeastern United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuohy, Aidan [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, Jeff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Rylander, Matt [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Singhvi, Vikas [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Enbar, Nadav [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Coley, Steven [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Roark, Jeff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ela, Erik [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Pilbrick, Charles Russ [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Rudkevich, Alex [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States); Hansen, Cliff [Electric Power Research Institute, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-07-11

    Increasing levels of distributed and utility scale Solar Photovoltaics (PV) will have an impact on many utility functions, including distribution system operations, bulk system performance, business models and scheduling of generation. In this project, EPRI worked with Southern Company Services and its affiliates and the Tennessee Valley Authority to assist these utilities in their strategic planning efforts for integrating PV, based on modeling, simulation and analysis using a set of innovative tools. Advanced production simulation models were used to investigate operating reserve requirements. To leverage existing work and datasets, this last task was carried out on the California system. Overall, the project resulted in providing useful information to both of the utilities involved and through the final reports and interactions during the project. The results from this project can be used to inform the industry about new and improved methodologies for understanding solar PV penetration, and will influence ongoing and future research. This report summarizes each of the topics investigated over the 2.5-year project period.

  8. Chemometrical assessment of the electrical parameters obtained by long-term operating freshwater sediment microbial fuel cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitov, Mario; Bardarov, Ivo; Mandjukov, Petko; Hubenova, Yolina

    2015-12-01

    The electrical parameters of nine freshwater sediment microbial fuel cells (SMFCs) were monitored for a period of over 20 months. The developed SMFCs, divided into three groups, were started up and continuously operated under different constant loads (100, 510 and 1100 Ω) for 2.5 months. At this stage of the experiment, the highest power density values, reaching 1.2 ± 0.2 mW/m(2), were achieved by the SMFCs loaded with 510 Ω. The maximum power obtained at periodical polarization during the rest period, however, ranged between 26.2 ± 2.8 and 35.3 ± 2.8 mW/m(2), strongly depending on the internal cell resistance. The statistical evaluation of data derived from the polarization curves shows that after 300 days of operation all examined SMFCs reached a steady-state and the system might be assumed as homoscedastic. The estimated values of standard and expanded uncertainties of the electric parameters indicate a high repeatability and reproducibility of the SMFCs' performance. Results obtained in subsequent discharge-recovery cycles reveal the opportunity for practical application of studied SMFCs as autonomous power sources.

  9. Long term operation of continuous-flow system with enhanced biological phosphorus removal granules at different COD loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dong; Lv, Yufeng; Zeng, Huiping; Zhang, Jie

    2016-09-01

    In this study, a continuous-flow system with enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) granules was operated at different COD concentrations (200, 300 and 400mgL(-)(1)) to investigate the effect of COD loading on this system. The results showed that when the COD concentration in influent was increased to 400mgL(-)(1), the anaerobic COD removal efficiency and total phosphorus removal efficiency reduced obviously and the settling ability of granules deteriorated due to the proliferation of filamentous bacteria. Moreover, high COD loading inhibited the EPS secretion and destroyed the stability of granules. Results of high-through pyrosequencing indicated that filamentous bacteria had a competitive advantage over polyphosphate-accumulating organisms (PAOs) at high COD loading. The performance of system, settling ability of granules and proportion of PAOs gradually recovered to the initial level after the COD concentration was reduced to 200mgL(-)(1) on day 81. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Prediction of Long-Term Benefits of Inhaled Steroids by Phenotypic Markers in Moderate-to-Severe COPD: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiska B Snoeck-Stroband

    Full Text Available The decline in lung function can be reduced by long-term inhaled corticosteroid (ICS treatment in subsets of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. We aimed to identify which clinical, physiological and non-invasive inflammatory characteristics predict the benefits of ICS on lung function decline in COPD.Analysis was performed in 50 steroid-naive compliant patients with moderate to severe COPD (postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1, 30-80% of predicted, compatible with GOLD stages II-III, age 45-75 years, >10 packyears smoking and without asthma. Patients were treated with fluticasone propionate (500 μg bid or placebo for 2.5 years. Postbronchodilator FEV1, dyspnea and health status were measured every 3 months; lung volumes, airway hyperresponsiveness (PC20, and induced sputum at 0, 6 and 30 months. A linear mixed effect model was used for analysis of this hypothesis generating study.Significant predictors of attenuated FEV1-decline by fluticasone treatment compared to placebo were: fewer packyears smoking, preserved diffusion capacity, limited hyperinflation and lower inflammatory cell counts in induced sputum (p<0.04.Long-term benefits of ICS on lung function decline in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD are most pronounced in patients with fewer packyears, and less severe emphysema and inflammation. These data generate novel hypotheses on phenotype-driven therapy in COPD.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00158847.

  11. Prediction models of long-term leaching behavior and leaching mechanism of glass components and surrogated nuclides in radioactive vitrified waste forms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Y. C.; Lee, K. S. [Department of Industrial Environment and Health, Yonsei University, Wonju (Korea, Republic of); Kim, I. T.; Kim, H. T.; Kim, J. H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-07-01

    Melting solidification is considered to be a perspective technology for stabilizing incineration ash remaining after incineration of combustible radioactive waste since it has the advantage of improving the physicochemical properties of waste forms. Final waste forms should be characterized to determine the degree to which they fulfills the acceptance criteria of the disposal facility. Chemical durability (leaching resistance) is known to be the most important factor in the assessment of waste forms. In this study, vitrified waste forms are manufactured and characterized. Feed materials consist of simulated radioactive incineration ash and base-glass with different mixing ratios. To assess the chemical durability of vitrified waste forms, the International Standard Organization (ISO) leach test has been conducted at 70 degree C with deionized distilled water as a leachant for 820 days, and the concentrations of glass components and surrogates in the leachates are then analyzed. Two models for predicting long-term leaching behavior of glass components and radionuclides in a glass form are applied to the leached data after 820 days. The model including a fitted parameter from the longer experimental data shows more accuracy, however, the model with shorter leaching test results offers the advantage of being able to predict the long-term behavior from the short-term experimental data. The leaching mechanisms of surrogates and glass components were also investigated by using two semi-empirical kinetic models and were found to be dissolution with diffusion. (author)

  12. Perfusion lung scan as a method to predict response to long-term treatment of beraprost in patients with primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. Y.; Lee, S. D.; Moon, D. H.; Ryu, J. S.; Kim, J. S. [College of Medicine, Ulsan Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-07-01

    We studied whether perfusion lung scan predicts the effect of long term use of beraprost, in patients with PPH. The study population included 18 patient with PPH, who were enrolled in multicenter prospective study, and were under the trial of beraprost over 3 months. Perfusion lung scans were classified as normal peripheral distribution (NPD), and diffuse pachy abnormalities (DPA) according to the extent of small perfusion defects. Beraprost was considered to be effective when more than two of the following conditions were met: improvement in symptoms of dyspnea graded by NYHA classification, more than 10% decrease in velocity of tricuspid valve regurgitation by echocardiography or more than 10% increase in 6 minute walk test. The mean age of patients is 27{+-}11 (male; female = 4 : 14). Lung scan showed 7 with NPD and 11 with DPA. There were no dfferences of baseline symptoms, hemodynamic parameters, and 6-min wal test between patients with NPD and DPA. The long term use of beraprost was effective in 8 cases out of 11 case with NPD, and only 1 out of 7 cases with DPA (p<0.05). Perfusion lung scan may predict beraprost response in patients with PPH.

  13. Prospective Dutch colorectal cancer cohort : an infrastructure for long-term observational, prognostic, predictive and (randomized) intervention research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burbach, J P M; Kurk, S A; Coebergh van den Braak, R R J; Dik, V K; May, A M; Meijer, G. A.; Punt, C J A; Vink, G R; Los, M; Hoogerbrugge, N; Huijgens, P C; Ijzermans, J N M; Kuipers, E J; de Noo, M E; Pennings, J P; van der Velden, A M T; Verhoef, C; Siersema, P D; van Oijen, M G H; Verkooijen, H M; Koopman, M

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Systematic evaluation and validation of new prognostic and predictive markers, technologies and interventions for colorectal cancer (CRC) is crucial for optimizing patients' outcomes. With only 5-15% of patients participating in clinical trials, generalizability of results is poor. Moreo

  14. Anti-mullerian hormone predicts menopause: a long-term follow-up study in normoovulatory women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, S.L.; Eijkemans, M.J.; Scheffer, G.J.; Rooij, I.A.L.M. van; Vet, A. de; Themmen, A.P.N.; Laven, J.S.E.; Jong, F.H. de; Velde, E.R. te; Fauser, B.C.J.M.; Broekmans, F.J.

    2011-01-01

    CONTEXT: It has been hypothesized that a fixed interval exists between age at natural sterility and age at menopause. Both events show considerable individual variability, with a range of 20 yr. Correct prediction of age at menopause could open avenues of individualized prevention of age-related

  15. Preliminary analysis of modeling of Pars and steam injectors to support long-term operation of LWR passive ECCS using a best estimate thermal-hydraulics code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morales S, J. B.; Sanchez J, J. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Circuito Interior s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico); Espinosa P, G., E-mail: jaimebmoraless@gmail.co [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, Av. San Rafael Atlixco No. 186, Col. Vicentina, 09340 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2010-10-15

    In order to control the amount of hydrogen produced, during the chemical reaction of steam and strongly overheated zirconium in a LWR severe accident, several control methos have been proposed. In a considerable number of nuclear power plants the initial preferred solution was either the use of an inert containment atmosphere or the use of igniters. However, the use of Pars (Passive autocatalytic recombiners) has been considered an important addition to this set of H{sub 2} controls. Pars have appealing features such as, low maintenance, do not require active components to start operation, and can initiate the H{sub 2} and O{sub 2} recombination at low concentrations. However, under certain conditions these Pars may trigger H{sub 2} ignition leading to deflagration s with possible containment damages. Combustions, poisons and liquid may inhibit or reduce the Pars operation. Advanced LWR designs (generation III + and IV) are also considering the use of Pars as a supporting system to the long term operation of their passive ECCS (Emergency Core Cooling Systems) because they may transport the energy of containment H{sub 2} and O{sub 2} gases to external sinks. Even when the ECCS of modern nuclear power plants are designed to maintain containment conditions under established limits, there are small amounts of O{sub 2} and H{sub 2} produced mainly by H{sub 2}O radiolysis, and after several days of containment isolation, these gases may accumulate in places where the possibility of a H{sub 2} deflagration increases. Therefore, the use of Pars looks initially as an interesting solution to long-term H{sub 2} control during a Dba. However, the H{sub 2} and O{sub 2} recombination is an exothermic process resulting in additional steam and energy releases to the containment. In order to avoid a direct deposition of the steam and energy (Pars produced) into the containment atmosphere, we propose to use them to operate steam injectors that can bring cold water to replenish ECCS

  16. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Comité des collectes à long terme

    2011-01-01

    It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

  17. Introducing an operational method to forecast long-term regional drought based on the application of artificial intelligence capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kousari, Mohammad Reza; Hosseini, Mitra Esmaeilzadeh; Ahani, Hossein; Hakimelahi, Hemila

    2015-09-01

    An effective forecast of the drought definitely gives lots of advantages in regard to the management of water resources being used in agriculture, industry, and households consumption. To introduce such a model applying simple data inputs, in this study a regional drought forecast method on the basis of artificial intelligence capabilities (artificial neural networks) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI in 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 monthly series) has been presented in Fars Province of Iran. The precipitation data of 41 rain gauge stations were applied for computing SPI values. Besides, weather signals including Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NINO1+2, anomaly NINO1+2, NINO3, anomaly NINO3, NINO4, anomaly NINO4, NINO3.4, and anomaly NINO3.4 were also used as the predictor variables for SPI time series forecast the next 12 months. Frequent testing and validating steps were considered to obtain the best artificial neural networks (ANNs) models. The forecasted values were mapped in verification sector then they were compared with the observed maps at the same dates. Results showed considerable spatial and temporal relationships even among the maps of different SPI time series. Also, the first 6 months forecasted maps showed an average of 73 % agreements with the observed ones. The most important finding and the strong point of this study was the fact that although drought forecast in each station and time series was completely independent, the relationships between spatial and temporal predictions remained. This strong point mainly referred to frequent testing and validating steps in order to explore the best drought forecast models from plenty of produced ANNs models. Finally, wherever the precipitation data are available, the practical application of the presented method is possible.

  18. Introducing an operational method to forecast long-term regional drought based on the application of artificial intelligence capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kousari, Mohammad Reza; Hosseini, Mitra Esmaeilzadeh; Ahani, Hossein; Hakimelahi, Hemila

    2017-01-01

    An effective forecast of the drought definitely gives lots of advantages in regard to the management of water resources being used in agriculture, industry, and households consumption. To introduce such a model applying simple data inputs, in this study a regional drought forecast method on the basis of artificial intelligence capabilities (artificial neural networks) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI in 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 monthly series) has been presented in Fars Province of Iran. The precipitation data of 41 rain gauge stations were applied for computing SPI values. Besides, weather signals including Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NINO1+2, anomaly NINO1+2, NINO3, anomaly NINO3, NINO4, anomaly NINO4, NINO3.4, and anomaly NINO3.4 were also used as the predictor variables for SPI time series forecast the next 12 months. Frequent testing and validating steps were considered to obtain the best artificial neural networks (ANNs) models. The forecasted values were mapped in verification sector then they were compared with the observed maps at the same dates. Results showed considerable spatial and temporal relationships even among the maps of different SPI time series. Also, the first 6 months forecasted maps showed an average of 73 % agreements with the observed ones. The most important finding and the strong point of this study was the fact that although drought forecast in each station and time series was completely independent, the relationships between spatial and temporal predictions remained. This strong point mainly referred to frequent testing and validating steps in order to explore the best drought forecast models from plenty of produced ANNs models. Finally, wherever the precipitation data are available, the practical application of the presented method is possible.

  19. Physicochemical and biological characterization of long-term operated sulfate reducing granular sludge in the SANI® process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Tianwei; Luo, Jinghai; Wei, Li; Mackey, Hamish R; Liu, Rulong; Rey Morito, Guillermo; Chen, Guang-Hao

    2015-03-15

    The SANI(®) process (Sulfate reduction, Autotrophic denitrification and Nitrification Integrated) is a treatment system with low energy demands. The major bioreactor of this new technology is a sulfate-reducing up-flow sludge bed (SRUSB) that converts organics and provides electron donors for subsequent autotrophic denitrification. This research characterizes the granules inside the SRUSB, with the aim of improving its efficiency, maximizing its operational flexibility, and minimizing its footprint. The unique sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) granules serving in the SRUSB were found to increase the resilience and compactness of the SRUSB. The granules, with a compact and porous structure, showed high cohesion resisting breakage with a shear force G > 3400 s(-1). The hydrophobicity of the external surface of the mature granules remained stable at around 70% and acid volatile sulfide (AVS) accumulated at the bottom of the SRUSB. 16s rRNA gene analysis of the microbial communities revealed that Desulfobulbus (42.1%), Prosthecochloris (19%) and Trichococcus (12%) dominated the mature granular sludge. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) further showed that SRB organisms were located internally and then surrounded by non-SRB. According to the FISH results, the spatial distribution of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) displayed protein and α-polysaccharides in the exterior and β-polysaccharide in the core of the granules. Such biological structure suggests that each SRB granule acts as an efficient and independent unit, capable of achieving both fermentation and organic conversion. The present investigation sheds light on the physicochemical and biological characteristics of the SRB granulate. This information provides valuable information for scaling-up the SANI(®) process to treat real saline sewage in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    with 2D echocardiography and 24-hour Holter recordings. The study was designed to assess the power of several HRV measures to predict mortality. Dyx was tested in a subset of 206 consecutive Danish patients with analysable Holter recordings. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years 70 patients had died...... new predictive information on mortality in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). This study compares the prognostic significance of Dyx to that of traditional linear and nonlinear measures of HRV. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Nordic ICD pilot study, patients with an acute MI were screened....... Of all traditional and multipole HRV parameters, reduced Dyx was the most powerful predictor of all-cause mortality (HR 2.4; CI 1.5 to 3.8; P

  1. Long-term results of preventive embolization of renal angiomyolipomas: evaluation of predictive factors of volume decrease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hocquelet, A.; Cornelis, F.; Le Bras, Y.; Meyer, M.; Tricaud, E.; Lasserre, A.S.; Grenier, N. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Urology and Vascular Imaging, Bordeaux (France); Ferriere, J.M.; Robert, G. [Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Pellegrin, Urology Service, Bordeaux (France)

    2014-08-15

    To evaluate the efficacy of selective arterial embolization (SAE) of angiomyolipomas based on the percentage volume reduction after embolization and to identify predictive factors of volume decrease. Patients receiving prophylactic SAE of renal angiomyolipomas were included retrospectively over 3 years. The volume change after SAE and haemorrhagic or surgical events were recorded. Initial tumour volume, percentage tumour fat content, mean tumour density, embolic agent used, number of angiomyolipomas and tuberous sclerosis disease were evaluated as predictive factors of volume decrease. A total of 19 patients with 39 angiomyolipomas were included with median follow-up of 28 months (interquartile range 21-37 months). All treatments were technically successful (92 % primary and 8 % secondary). No distal bleeding or any increase in size or surgical nephrectomy after SAE was recorded. Mean volume reduction was 72 % (±24 %). Volumes before SAE (R{sup 2} = 0.276; p = 0.001), percentage fat content (R{sup 2} = 0.612; p < 0.0001) and mean angiomyolipoma density (R{sup 2} = 0.536; p < 0.0001) were identified as predictive factors of volume decrease. In multivariate regression, only percentage fat content influenced volume decreases. SAE is an efficient treatment for angiomyolipoma devascularisation and volume reduction. A significant reduction of volume is modulated by the initial volume and tissue composition of the tumour. (orig.)

  2. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Hardekopf

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  3. Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. W. Hardekopf

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.

  4. Long-term results of the Heller-Dor operation with intraoperative manometry for the treatment of esophageal achalasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattioli, Sandro; Ruffato, Alberto; Lugaresi, Marialuisa; Pilotti, Vladimiro; Aramini, Beatrice; D'Ovidio, Frank

    2010-11-01

    Quality of outcome of the Heller-Dor operation is sometimes different between studies, likely because of technical reasons. We analyze the details of myotomy and fundoplication in relation to the results achieved over a 30-year single center's experience. From 1979-2008, a long esophagogastric myotomy and a partial anterior fundoplication to protect the surface of the myotomy was routinely performed with intraoperative manometry in 202 patients (97 men; median age, 55.5 years; interquartile range, 43.7-71 years) through a laparotomy and in 60 patients (24 men; median age, 46 years; interquartile range, 36.2-63 years) through a laparoscopy. The follow-up consisted of periodical interview, endoscopy, and barium swallow, and a semiquantitative scale was used to grade results. Mortality was 1 of 202 in the laparotomy group and 0 of 60 in the laparoscopy group. Median follow-up was 96 months (interquartile range, 48-190.5 months) in the laparotomy group and 48 months (interquartile range, 27-69.5 months) in the laparoscopy group. At intraoperative manometry, complete abolition of the high-pressure zone was obtained in 100%. The Dor-related high-pressure zone length and mean pressure were 4.5 ± 0.4 cm and 13.3 ± 2.2 mm Hg in the laparotomy group and 4.5 ± 0.5 cm and 13.2 ± 2.2 mm Hg in the laparoscopy group (P = .75). In the laparotomy group poor results (19/201 [9.5%]) were secondary to esophagitis in 15 (7.5%) of 201 patients (in 2 patients after 184 and 252 months, respectively) and to recurrent dysphagia in 4 (2%) of 201 patients, all with end-stage sigmoid achalasia. In the laparoscopy group 2 (3.3%) of 60 had esophagitis. A long esophagogastric myotomy protected by means of Dor fundoplication cures or substantially reduces dysphagia in the great majority of patients affected by esophageal achalasia and effectively controls postoperative esophagitis. Intraoperative manometry is likely the key factor for achieving the reported results. Copyright © 2010 The

  5. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy: A Retrospective Analysis of 7781 Gastric Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy.Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer.We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups.Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212-1.869, P cancer recurrence.

  6. Partial-prep bonded restorations in the anterior dentition: Long-term gingival health and predictability. A case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Ivan Contreras; Molina, Gil Contreras; Stanley, Kyle; Lago, Carlo; Xavier, Clessius Ferreira; Volpato, Claudia Angela Maziero

    2016-01-01

    Bonded porcelain restorations are a predictable and durable treatment option that can restore not only the strength and function of the teeth but also the esthetic appearance. One important issue in adhesive dentistry is the preservation of sound enamel. Following biomimetic principles, employing minimally invasive applications and adhesive technologies is of paramount importance for successful restorations. While it is widely accepted that minimally invasive restorative techniques should be favored, there is still some controversy over the noninvasive approaches. The purpose of this article is to question the complete "no-prep veneer" concept due to the possible negative effects on periodontal health caused by excessive contour and overhangs of the ceramic restoration, and to propose a new method to assess the quality and longevity of veneers with a partial-prep concept.

  7. A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duncan; Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Rushworth, Alastair; Sahu, Sujit K

    2017-04-01

    In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio-temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two-stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio-temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data. The methodology is motivated by a new five-year study investigating the effects of multiple pollutants on respiratory hospitalizations in England between 2007 and 2011, using pollution and disease data relating to local and unitary authorities on a monthly time scale. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Modelling short- and long-term statistical learning of music as a process of predictive entropy reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Christian; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Statistical learning underlies the generation of expectations with different degrees of uncertainty. In music, uncertainty applies to expectations for pitches in a melody. This uncertainty can be quantified by Shannon entropy from distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations...... of each melody, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm. We hypothesised that statistical learning of music can be modelled as a process of entropy reduction. Specifically, implicit learning of statistical regularities allows reduction in the relative entropy (i.e. symmetrised Kullback-Leibler Divergence...... of musical training, and within-participant decreases in entropy after short-term statistical learning of novel music. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions, following the Principle of Maximum Entropy, statistical learning over varying timescales enables listeners to generate...

  9. Improving long-term prediction of first cardiovascular event: the contribution of family history of coronary heart disease and social status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veronesi, G; Gianfagna, F; Giampaoli, S; Chambless, L E; Mancia, G; Cesana, G; Ferrario, M M

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study is to assess whether family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) and education as proxy of social status improve long-term cardiovascular disease risk prediction in a low-incidence European population. The 20-year risk of first coronary or ischemic stroke events was estimated using sex-specific Cox models in 3956 participants of three population-based surveys in northern Italy, aged 35-69 years and free of cardiovascular disease at enrollment. The additional contribution of education and positive family history of CHD was defined as change in discrimination and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) over the model including 7 traditional risk factors. Kaplan-Meier 20-year risk was 16.8% in men (254 events) and 6.4% in women (102 events). Low education (hazard ratio=1.35, 95%CI 0.98-1.85) and family history of CHD (1.55; 1.19-2.03) were associated with the endpoint in men, but not in women. In men, the addition of education and family history significantly improved discrimination by 1%; NRI was 6% (95%CI: 0.2%-15.2%), raising to 20% (0.5%-44%) in those at intermediate risk. NRI in women at intermediate risk was 7%. In low-incidence populations, family history of CHD and education, easily assessed in clinical practice, should be included in long-term cardiovascular disease risk scores, at least in men. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Characterization and long term operation of a novel superconducting undulator with 15 mm period length in a synchrotron light source

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Casalbuoni

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A new cryogen-free full scale (1.5 m long superconducting undulator with a period length of 15 mm (SCU15 has been successfully tested in the ANKA storage ring. This represents a very important milestone in the development of superconducting undulators for third and fourth generation light sources carried on by the collaboration between the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the industrial partner Babcock Noell GmbH. SCU15 is the first full length device worldwide that with beam reaches a higher peak field than what expected with the same geometry (vacuum gap and period length with an ideal cryogenic permanent magnet undulator built with the best material available PrFeB. After a summary on the design and main parameters of the device, we present here the characterization in terms of spectral properties and the long term operation of the SCU15 in the ANKA storage ring.

  11. Long-term prediction of emergency department revenue and visitor volume using autoregressive integrated moving average model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chieh-Fan; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chou, Huei-Yin; Yang, Shu-Mei; Chen, I-Te; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  12. Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chieh-Fan Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  13. Long-term landscape trajectory - Can we make predictions about landscape form and function for post-mining landforms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, G. R.; Lowry, J. B. C.; Coulthard, T. J.

    2016-08-01

    A significant issue for the application of numerical Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) is their calibration/parameterisation and validation. LEMs are now at the stage of development where if calibrated, they can provide meaningful and useful results. However, before use, each LEM requires a set of data and parameter values for it to run reliably and most importantly produce results with some measure of precision and accuracy. This calibration/validation process is largely carried out using parameter values determined from present day, or recent surface conditions which are themselves product of much longer-term geology-soil-climate-vegetation interactions. Here we examine the reliability of an LEM to predict catchment form over geological time (500,000 years) for a potential rehabilitated mine landform using defensible parameters derived from field plots. The findings demonstrate that there is no equifinality in landscape form with different parameter sets producing geomorphically and hydrologically unique landscapes throughout their entire evolution. This shows that parameterisation does matter over geological time scales. However, for shorter time scales (< 10,000 years) the geomorphic differences in hillslope form are minimal as described by the hypsometric curve, area-slope and cumulative area distribution, yet there are large differences in sediment output. Therefore, obtaining reliable and defensible parameters for input to LEMs is essential.

  14. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  15. Usefulness of Combining Galectin-3 and BIVA Assessments in Predicting Short- and Long-Term Events in Patients Admitted for Acute Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Berardinis, Benedetta; Magrini, Laura; Zampini, Giorgio; Zancla, Benedetta; Salerno, Gerardo; Cardelli, Patrizia; Di Stasio, Enrico; Gaggin, Hanna K.; Belcher, Arianna; Parry, Blair A.; Nagurney, John T.; Januzzi, James L.; Di Somma, Salvatore

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. Acute heart failure (AHF) is associated with a higher risk for the occurrence of rehospitalization and death. Galectin-3 (GAL3) is elevated in AHF patients and is an indicator in predicting short-term mortality. The total body water using bioimpedance vector analysis (BIVA) is able to identify mortality within AHF patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the short- and long-term predictive value of GAL3, BIVA, and the combination of both in AHF patients in Emergency Department (ED). Methods. 205 ED patients with AHF were evaluated by testing for B type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and GAL3. The primary endpoint was death and rehospitalization at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days and 12 and 18 months. AHF patients were evaluated at the moment of ED arrival with clinical judgment and GAL3 and BIVA measurement. Results. GAL3 level was significantly higher in patients >71 years old, and with eGFR 17.8 ng/mL shows significant survival difference. At multivariate Cox regression analysis GAL3 is an independent variable to predict death + rehospitalization with a value of 32.24 ng/mL at 30 days (P < 0.005). Conclusion. In patients admitted for AHF an early assessment of GAL3 and BIVA seems to be useful in identifying patients at high risk for death and rehospitalization at short and long term. Combining the biomarker and the device could be of great utility since they monitor the severity of two pathophysiological different mechanisms: heart fibrosis and fluid overload. PMID:25101304

  16. Usefulness of Combining Galectin-3 and BIVA Assessments in Predicting Short- and Long-Term Events in Patients Admitted for Acute Heart Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedetta De Berardinis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Acute heart failure (AHF is associated with a higher risk for the occurrence of rehospitalization and death. Galectin-3 (GAL3 is elevated in AHF patients and is an indicator in predicting short-term mortality. The total body water using bioimpedance vector analysis (BIVA is able to identify mortality within AHF patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the short- and long-term predictive value of GAL3, BIVA, and the combination of both in AHF patients in Emergency Department (ED. Methods. 205 ED patients with AHF were evaluated by testing for B type natriuretic peptide (BNP and GAL3. The primary endpoint was death and rehospitalization at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days and 12 and 18 months. AHF patients were evaluated at the moment of ED arrival with clinical judgment and GAL3 and BIVA measurement. Results. GAL3 level was significantly higher in patients >71 years old, and with eGFR17.8 ng/mL shows significant survival difference. At multivariate Cox regression analysis GAL3 is an independent variable to predict death + rehospitalization with a value of 32.24 ng/mL at 30 days (P<0.005. Conclusion. In patients admitted for AHF an early assessment of GAL3 and BIVA seems to be useful in identifying patients at high risk for death and rehospitalization at short and long term. Combining the biomarker and the device could be of great utility since they monitor the severity of two pathophysiological different mechanisms: heart fibrosis and fluid overload.

  17. Long-Term Hearing Results After Ossiculoplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Matthew D; Trinidade, Aaron; Russell, James Shep; Dornhoffer, John L

    2017-04-01

    To determine if the OOPS index is predictive of long-term hearing results after ossiculoplasty. Case series with retrospective chart review. Tertiary care otology practice. Adult and pediatric patients (3-88 years of age). Ossiculoplasty with cartilage tympanoplasty, with or without mastoidectomy. Primary outcome measures included short-term hearing results (pure-tone average air-bone gap [PTA-ABG] measured between 60 days and 1 year after surgery), long-term hearing results (PTA-ABG measured ≥5 years after surgery), and the rate of successful ABG closure to ≤20 dB. Secondary measures included the need for revision surgery, delayed tympanic membrane graft failure, worsening conductive hearing loss (after an initially satisfactory hearing result), and recurrence of cholesteatoma. There was no significant difference between adults and children for short-term hearing results (average post-op PTA-ABG was 18.9 dB vs. 19.8 dB, respectively; p = 0.544), long-term hearing results (average final PTA-ABG was 19.3 dB vs. 19.4 dB, respectively; p = 0.922), or rate of ABG closure to less than 20 dB (63.1% vs. 58.0%, p = 0.282). Spearman's rank-order correlation (ρ) identified a strong positive correlation between OOPS index score and average post-operative PTA-ABG (ρ = 0.983; p hearing outcomes in adult and pediatric patients undergoing ossiculoplasty in both the short term and the long term.

  18. Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

    2017-02-01

    UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

  19. Long-term operation of a double phase LAr LEM Time Projection Chamber with a simplified anode and extraction-grid design

    CERN Document Server

    Cantini, C; Gendotti, A; Horikawa, S; Murphy, S; Natterer, G; Periale, L; Resnati, F; Rubbia, A; Sergiampietri, F; Viant, T; Wu, S

    2013-01-01

    We report on the successful operation of a double phase Liquid Argon Large Electron Multiplier Time Projection Chamber (LAr LEM-TPC) equipped with two dimensional projective anodes with dimensions 10$\\times$10 cm$^2$, and with a maximum drift length of 21 cm. The anodes were manufactured for the first time from a single multilayer printed circuit board (PCB). Various layouts of the readout views have been tested and optimised. In addition, the ionisation charge was efficiently extracted from the liquid to the gas phase with a single grid instead of two previously. We studied the response and the gain of the detector to cosmic muon tracks. To study long-term stability over several weeks, we continuously operated the chamber at fixed electric field settings. We reproducibly observe that after an initial decrease with a characteristic time of $\\tau\\approx 1.6$ days, the observed gain is stable. In 46 days of operation, a total of 14.6 million triggers have been collected at a stable effective gain of $G_\\infty\\s...

  20. Urban RoGeR: Merging process-based high-resolution flash flood model for urban areas with long-term water balance predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiler, M.

    2016-12-01

    Heavy rain induced flash floods are still a serious hazard and generate high damages in urban areas. In particular in the spatially complex urban areas, the temporal and spatial pattern of runoff generation processes at a wide spatial range during extreme rainfall events need to be predicted including the specific effects of green infrastructure and urban forests. In addition, the initial conditions (soil moisture pattern, water storage of green infrastructure) and the effect of lateral redistribution of water (run-on effects and re-infiltration) have to be included in order realistically predict flash flood generation. We further developed the distributed, process-based model RoGeR (Runoff Generation Research) to include the relevant features and processes in urban areas in order to test the effects of different settings, initial conditions and the lateral redistribution of water on the predicted flood response. The uncalibrated model RoGeR runs at a spatial resolution of 1*1m² (LiDAR, degree of sealing, landuse), soil properties and geology (1:50.000). In addition, different green infrastructures are included into the model as well as the effect of trees on interception and transpiration. A hydraulic model was included into RoGeR to predict surface runoff, water redistribution, and re-infiltration. During rainfall events, RoGeR predicts at 5 min temporal resolution, but the model also simulates evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge during rain-free periods at a longer time step. The model framework was applied to several case studies in Germany where intense rainfall events produced flash floods causing high damage in urban areas and to a long-term research catchment in an urban setting (Vauban, Freiburg), where a variety of green infrastructures dominates the hydrology. Urban-RoGeR allowed us to study the effects of different green infrastructures on reducing the flood peak, but also its effect on the water balance (evapotranspiration and groundwater

  1. Long-term outcome after neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy in locally advanced noninflammatory breast cancer and predictive factors for a pathologic complete remission. Results of a multivariate analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matuschek, C.; Boelke, E.; Roth, S.L. [Duesseldorf Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology] [and others

    2012-09-15

    An earlier published series of neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (NRT-CHX) in locally advanced noninflammatory breast cancer (LABC) has now been updated with a follow-up of more than 15 years. Long-term outcome data and predictive factors for pathologic complete response (pCR) were analyzed. Patients and methods: During 1991-1998, 315 LABC patients (cT1-cT4/cN0-N1) were treated with NRT-CHX. Preoperative radiotherapy (RT) consisted of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) of 50 Gy (5 x 2 Gy/week) to the breast and the supra-/infraclavicular lymph nodes combined with an electron boost in 214 cases afterwards or - in case of breast conservation - a 10-Gy interstitial boost with {sup 192}Ir afterloading before EBRT. Chemotherapy was administered prior to RT in 192 patients, and concomitantly in 113; 10 patients received no chemotherapy. The update of all follow-up ended in November 2011. Age, tumor grade, nodal status, hormone receptor status, simultaneous vs. sequential CHX, and the time interval between end of RT and surgery were examined in multivariate terms with pCR and overall survival as end point. Results: The total pCR rate after neoadjuvant RT-CHX reached 29.2%, with LABC breast conservation becoming possible in 50.8% of cases. In initially node-positive cases (cN+), a complete nodal response (pN0) after NRT-CHX was observed in 56% (89/159). The multivariate analysis revealed that a longer time interval to surgery increased the probability for a pCR (HR 1.17 [95% CI 1.05-1.31], p < 0.01). However, in large tumors (T3-T4) a significantly reduced pCR rate (HR 0.89 [95% CI 0.80-0.99], p = 0.03) was obtained. Importantly, pCR was the strongest prognostic factor for long-term survival (HR 0.28 [95% CI 0.19-0.56], p < 0.001). Conclusion: pCR identifies patients with a significantly better prognosis for long-term survival. However, a long time interval to surgery (> 2 months) increases the probability of pCR after NRT-CHX. (orig.)

  2. Effective measures to guarantee long-term operation of TMP unit%保证TMP装置长周期运行的措施

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马曾文; 张军; 王少良

    2011-01-01

    介绍新型重油催化裂解多产丙烯( TMP)装置长周期生产过程中,出现的主风分布管磨损、大小放火炬阀故障、两机操作系统故障、气压机管线腐蚀等问题.采取了以下改造措施:主风分布管外壁焊锚固钉衬刚玉,提高主风分布管抗冲刷能力,延长使用寿命;更换大小放火炬阀、气压机入口阀;两机操作系统改为DCS,机组自保系统灵活稳定;沉降器增加防焦格栅,挡住脱落的焦块、衬里等杂物;防焦蒸汽环改造,防止油气在拱顶结焦;气压机管线改造,延长其硫化物应力腐蚀破裂时间.为装置长周期生产提供了保障.%In the long-term operation of TMP unit for maximized propylene production from heavy oil catalytic cracking, the wearing of main air distributor tubes, failure of large and small flare valves, trouble in air blower and gas compressor trains and corrosion in pipelines of gas compressors have been experienced. To solve these problems, the following measures have been taken; The external wall of main air distributor tubes are lined with anchored corindon to improve anti-corrosion performance of the tubes and extend the service life; Large and small flare valves and gas compressor inlet valves are replaced; DCS system is applied for the control of air blowers and gas compressors for stable and reliable operation; The grids are installed in the settler to hold back the fallen coke and lining, etc; Anti-coking rings are revamped to prevent coking of oil vapor in the arch section; Pipelines of gas compressors are revamped to delay the development of sulfide stress corrosion cracking ( SSCC) . Therefore, good conditions have been provided for the long-term operation of the unit.

  3. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    45 years helping in developing countries! CERN personnel have been helping the least fortunate people on the planet since 1971. How? With the Long-Term Collections! Dear Colleagues, The Staff Association’s Long-Term Collections (LTC) Committee is delighted to share this important milestone in the life of our Laboratory with you. Indeed, whilst the name of CERN is known worldwide for scientific discoveries, it also shines in the many humanitarian projects which have been supported by the LTC since 1971. Several schools and clinics, far and wide, carry its logo... Over the past 45 years, 74 projects have been supported (9 of which are still ongoing). This all came from a group of colleagues who wanted to share a little of what life offered them here at CERN, in this haven of mutual understanding, peace and security, with those who were less fortunate elsewhere. Thus, the LTC were born... Since then, we have worked as a team to maintain the dream of these visionaries, with the help of regular donat...

  4. Long-Term Collection

    CERN Document Server

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    Dear Colleagues, As previously announced in Echo (No. 254), your delegates took action to draw attention to the projects of the Long-Term Collections (LTC), the humanitarian body of the CERN Staff Association. On Tuesday, 11 October, at noon, small Z-Cards were widely distributed at the entrances of CERN restaurants and we thank you all for your interest. We hope to have achieved an important part of our goal, which was to inform you, convince you and find new supporters among you. We will find out in the next few days! An exhibition of the LTC was also set up in the Main Building for the entire week. The Staff Association wants to celebrate the occasion of the Long-Term Collection’s 45th anniversary at CERN because, ever since 1971, CERN personnel have showed great support in helping the least fortunate people on the planet in a variety of ways according to their needs. On a regular basis, joint fundraising appeals are made with the Directorate to help the victims of natural disasters around th...

  5. Collectes à long terme

    CERN Document Server

    Collectes à long terme

    2014-01-01

    En cette fin d’année 2014 qui approche à grands pas, le Comité des Collectes à Long Terme remercie chaleureusement ses fidèles donatrices et donateurs réguliers pour leurs contributions à nos actions en faveur des plus démunis de notre planète. C’est très important, pour notre Comité, de pouvoir compter sur l’appui assidu que vous nous apportez. Depuis plus de 40 ans maintenant, le modèle des CLT est basé principalement sur des actions à long terme (soit une aide pendant 4-5 ans par projet, mais plus parfois selon les circonstances), et sa planification demande une grande régularité de ses soutiens financiers. Grand MERCI à vous ! D’autres dons nous parviennent au cours de l’année, et ils sont aussi les bienvenus. En particulier, nous tenons à remercier...

  6. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site.

  7. Hypoxic Prostate/Muscle PO{sub 2} Ratio Predicts for Outcome in Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer: Long-Term Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turaka, Aruna [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Buyyounouski, Mark K., E-mail: mark.buyyounouski@fccc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Hanlon, Alexandra L. [School of Nursing, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Horwitz, Eric M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Greenberg, Richard E. [Department of Surgery, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Movsas, Benjamin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2012-03-01

    Purpose: To correlate tumor oxygenation status with long-term biochemical outcome after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Custom-made Eppendorf PO{sub 2} microelectrodes were used to obtain PO{sub 2} measurements from the prostate (P), focused on positive biopsy locations, and normal muscle tissue (M), as a control. A total of 11,516 measurements were obtained in 57 men with localized prostate cancer immediately before prostate brachytherapy was given. The Eppendorf histograms provided the median PO{sub 2}, mean PO{sub 2}, and % <5 mm Hg or <10 mm Hg. Biochemical failure (BF) was defined using both the former American Society of Therapeutic Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) (three consecutive raises) and the current Phoenix (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 2 ng/mL) definitions. A Cox proportional hazards regression model evaluated the influence of hypoxia using the P/M mean PO{sub 2} ratio on BF. Results: With a median follow-up time of 8 years, 12 men had ASTRO BF and 8 had Phoenix BF. On multivariate analysis, P/M PO{sub 2} ratio <0.10 emerged as the only significant predictor of ASTRO BF (p = 0.043). Hormonal therapy (p = 0.015) and P/M PO{sub 2} ratio <0.10 (p = 0.046) emerged as the only independent predictors of the Phoenix BF. Kaplan-Meier freedom from BF for P/M ratio <0.10 vs. {>=}0.10 at 8 years for ASTRO BF was 46% vs. 78% (p = 0.03) and for the Phoenix BF was 66% vs. 83% (p = 0.02). Conclusions: Hypoxia in prostate cancer (low mean P/M PO{sub 2} ratio) significantly predicts for poor long-term biochemical outcome, suggesting that novel hypoxic strategies should be investigated.

  8. Long-term testing of a high-temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell short stack operated with improved polybenzimidazole-based composite membranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinar, F. Javier; Cañizares, Pablo; Rodrigo, Manuel A.; Úbeda, Diego; Lobato, Justo

    2015-01-01

    In this work, the feasibility of a 150 cm2 high-temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cell (HT-PEMFC) stack operated with modified proton exchange membranes is demonstrated. The short fuel cell stack was manufactured using a total of three 50 cm2 membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs). The PEM technology is based on a polybenzimidazole (PBI) membrane. The obtained results were compared with those obtained using a HT-PEMFC stack with unmodified membranes. The membranes were cast from a PBI polymer synthesized in the laboratory, and the modified membranes contained 2 wt.% micro-sized TiO2 as a filler. Long-term tests were performed in both constant and dynamic loading modes. The fuel cell stack with 2 wt.% TiO2 composite PBI membranes exhibited an irreversible voltage loss of less than 2% after 1100 h of operation. In addition, the acid loss was reduced from 2% for the fuel cell stack with unmodified membranes to 0.6% for the fuel cell stack with modified membranes. The results demonstrate that introducing filler into the membranes enhances the durability and stability of this type of fuel cell technology. Moreover, the fuel cell stack system also exhibits very rapid and stable power and voltage output responses under dynamic load regimes.

  9. Improving long-term operation of power sources in off-grid hybrid systems based on renewable energy, hydrogen and battery

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Pablo; Torreglosa, Juan P.; Fernández, Luis M.; Jurado, Francisco

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents two novel hourly energy supervisory controls (ESC) for improving long-term operation of off-grid hybrid systems (HS) integrating renewable energy sources (wind turbine and photovoltaic solar panels), hydrogen system (fuel cell, hydrogen tank and electrolyzer) and battery. The first ESC tries to improve the power supplied by the HS and the power stored in the battery and/or in the hydrogen tank, whereas the second one tries to minimize the number of needed elements (batteries, fuel cells and electrolyzers) throughout the expected life of the HS (25 years). Moreover, in both ESC, the battery state-of-charge (SOC) and the hydrogen tank level are controlled and maintained between optimum operating margins. Finally, a comparative study between the controls is carried out by models of the commercially available components used in the HS under study in this work. These ESC are also compared with a third ESC, already published by the authors, and based on reducing the utilization costs of the energy storage devices. The comparative study proves the right performance of the ESC and their differences.

  10. Long-term final void salinity prediction for a post-mining landscape in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, G. R.; Wright, A.; de Silva, H.

    2005-02-01

    Opencast mining alters surface and subsurface hydrology of a landscape both during and post-mining. At mine closure, following opencast mining in mines with low overburden to coal ratios, a void is left in the final landform. This final void is the location of the active mine pit at closure. Voids are generally not infilled within the mines' lifetime, because of the prohibitive cost of earthwork operations, and they become post-mining water bodies or pit lakes. Water quality is a significant issue for pit lakes. Groundwater within coal seams and associated rocks can be saline, depending on the nature of the strata and groundwater circulation patterns. This groundwater may be preferentially drawn to and collected in the final void. Surface runoff to the void will not only collect salts from rainfall and atmospheric fallout, but also from the ground surface and the weathering of fresh rock. As the void water level rises, its evaporative surface area increases, concentrating salts that are held in solution. This paper presents a study of the long term, water quality trends in a post-mining final void in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia. This process is complex and occurs long term, and modelling offers the only method of evaluating water quality. Using available geochemical, climate and hydrogeological data as inputs into a mass-balance model, water quality in the final void was found to increase rapidly in salinity through time (2452 to 8909 mg l-1 over 500 years) as evaporation concentrates the salt in the void and regional groundwater containing high loads of salt continues to flow into the void.

  11. Thermal Aging Study of a Dow Corning SE 1700 Porous Structure Made by Direct Ink Writing: 1-Year Results and Long-Term Predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small, Ward [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Pearson, Mark A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Maiti, Amitesh [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Metz, Thomas R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Duoss, Eric B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Wilson, Thomas S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-11-13

    Dow Corning SE 1700 (reinforced polydimethylsiloxane) porous structures were made by direct ink writing (DIW). The specimens (~50% porosity) were subjected to various compressive strains (15, 30, 45%) and temperatures (room temperature, 35, 50, 70°C) in a nitrogen atmosphere (active purge) for 1 year. Compression set and load retention of the aged specimens were measured periodically during the study. Compression set increased with strain and temperature. After 1 year, specimens aged at room temperature, 35, and 50°C showed ~10% compression set (relative to the applied compressive deflection), while those aged at 70°C showed 20-40%. Due to the increasing compression set, load retention decreased with temperature, ranging from ~90% at room temperature to ~60-80% at 70°C. Long-term compression set and load retention at room temperature were predicted by applying time-temperature superposition (TTS). The predictions show compression set relative to the compressive deflection will be ~10-15% with ~70-90% load retention after 50 years at 15-45% strain, suggesting the material will continue to be mechanically functional. Comparison of the results to previously acquired data for cellular (M97*, M9760, M9763) and RTV (S5370) silicone foams suggests that the SE 1700 DIW porous specimens are on par with, or outperform, the legacy foams.

  12. Intermediate- and long-term follow-up of device closure of patent arterial duct with severe pulmonary hypertension: factors predicting outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadiq, Masood; Rehman, Asif U; Hyder, Najam; Qureshi, Ahmad U; Kazmi, Tehmina; Qureshi, Shakeel A

    2017-01-01

    In patients with large patent arterial ducts and severe pulmonary hypertension, the natural history of progression of pulmonary hypertension is very variable. Whether to close or not to close is often a difficult decision, as there are no established haemodynamic parameters predicting reversibility. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the results of device closure of large patent arterial ducts with severe pulmonary hypertension after 2 years of age and to determine haemodynamic variables associated with its regression during long-term follow-up. A total of 45 patients, with median age of 10 (2-27) years, with large patent arterial ducts and severe pulmonary hypertension, were considered. Haemodynamic variables were assessed in air, oxygen, and after occlusion. The follow-up was performed to assess regression of pulmonary hypertension. Device closure was successful in 43 (96%) patients. Pulmonary artery systolic and mean pressures decreased from 79 to 67 mmHg and from 59 to 50 mmHg, respectively (p25% (both in oxygen) (p=0.007). Device closure of large patent arterial ducts with severe pulmonary hypertension is safe and effective. Pulmonary vascular resistance index and systolic and mean pulmonary artery pressures in oxygen are the key prognostic variables predicting regression of pulmonary hypertension.

  13. Critical flux and chemical cleaning-in-place during the long-term operation of a pilot-scale submerged membrane bioreactor for municipal wastewater treatment

    KAUST Repository

    Wei, Chunhai

    2011-01-01

    The critical flux and chemical cleaning-in-place (CIP) in a long-term operation of a pilot-scale submerged membrane bioreactor for municipal wastewater treatment were investigated. Steady filtration under high flux (30 L/(m2 h)) was successfully achieved due to effective membrane fouling control by sub-critical flux operation and chemical CIP with sodium hypochlorite (NaClO) in both trans-membrane pressure (TMP) controlling mode (cleaning with high concentration NaClO of 2000-3000 mg/L in terms of effective chorine was performed when TMP rose to 15 kPa) and time controlling mode (cleanings were performed weekly and monthly respectively with low concentration NaClO (500-1000 mg/L) and high concentration NaClO (3000 mg/L)). Microscopic analysis on membrane fibers before and after high concentration NaClO was also conducted. Images of scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) showed that NaClO CIP could effectively remove gel layer, the dominant fouling under sub-critical flux operation. Porosity measurements indicated that NaClO CIP could partially remove pore blockage fouling. The analyses from fourier transform infrared spectrometry (FTIR) with attenuated total reflectance accessory (ATR) and energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS) demonstrated that protein-like macromolecular organics and inorganics were the important components of the fouling layer. The analysis of effluent quality before and after NaClO CIP showed no obvious effect on effluent quality. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Lung volumes, ventricular function and pulmonary arterial flow in children operated on for left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia: long-term results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abolmaali, Nasreddin; Koch, Arne [Dresden University of Technology, OncoRay - Molecular and Biological Imaging, Medical Faculty Carl Gustav Carus, Dresden (Germany); Goetzelt, Knut; Vogelberg, Christian [University Clinics Carl Gustav Carus, Dresden University of Technology, Clinic and Policlinic for Pediatrics - Pediatric Pulmonology, Dresden (Germany); Hahn, Gabriele [University Clinics Carl Gustav Carus, Dresden University of Technology, Institute and Policlinic for Radiology - Pediatric Radiology, Dresden (Germany); Fitze, Guido [University Clinics Carl Gustav Carus, Dresden University of Technology, Clinic and Policlinic for Pediatric Surgery, Dresden (Germany)

    2010-07-15

    To compare MRI-based functional pulmonary and cardiac measurements in the long-term follow-up of children operated on for left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) with age- and body size-matched healthy controls. Twelve children who received immediate postnatal surgery for closure of isolated left-sided CDH were included and received basic medical examinations, pulmonary function testing and echocardiography. MRI included measurement of lung volume, ventricular function assessment and velocity-encoded imaging of the pulmonary arteries and was compared with the data for 12 healthy children matched for age and body size. While patients' clinical test results were not suspicious, comparison between the MRI data for patients and those for healthy controls revealed significant differences. In patients, the volumes of the left lungs were increased and the tidal volume was larger on the right side. While the stroke volumes of both ventricles were reduced, heart rate and ejection fraction were increased. Flow, acceleration time and cross-sectional area of the left pulmonary artery were reduced. Functional MRI detected pulmonary and cardiac findings in the late follow-up of CDH children which may be missed by standard clinical methods and might be relevant for decisions regarding late outcome and treatment. (orig.)

  15. Cardiac metaiodobenzylguanidine activity can predict the long-term efficacy of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or beta-adrenoceptor blockers in patients with heart failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakata, Tomoaki; Wakabayashi, Takeru; Kyuma, Michifumi; Takahashi, Toru; Tsuchihashi, Kazufumi; Shimamoto, Kazuaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan)

    2005-02-01

    Although the benefits of treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and beta-blockers are well known, no method has as yet been established to predict the efficacy of drug therapy. This study tested whether cardiac{sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) activity is of prognostic value and can predict the improvement in heart failure patients resulting from treatment with ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers. Following quantification of the heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) of MIBG activity, 88 patients with heart failure who were treated with ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers (treated group) and 79 patients with heart failure who were treated conventionally without the aforementioned agents, and who served as controls, were followed up for 43 months with a primary endpoint of cardiac death. The treated group had a significantly lower prevalence of cardiac death and a significantly lower mortality at 5 years compared with the control group (15% vs 37% and 21% vs 42%, p<0.05, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that significant predictors were HMR, age, nitrate use and ventricular tachycardia for the treated group, and HMR, nitrate use and NYHA class for the control group. The drug treatment significantly reduced mortality from 36% to 12% when HMR was 1.53 or more and from 53% to 37% when HMR was less than 1.53. The reduction in risk of mortality within 5 years in patients without a severe MIBG defect (67%) was twice that in patients with such a defect (32%) (p<0.05). The reduction in mortality risk achieved by using ACE inhibitors and/or beta-blockers is associated with the severity of impairment of cardiac MIBG uptake. Cardiac MIBG activity can consequently be of long-term prognostic value in predicting the effectiveness of such treatment in patients with heart failure. (orig.)

  16. LONG TERM COLLECTIONS

    CERN Multimedia

    STAFF ASSOCIATION

    2010-01-01

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Long-Term Collections (CLT) committee would like to warmly thank its faithful donors who, year after year, support our actions all over the world. Without you, all this would not be possible. We would like to thank, in particular, the CERN Firemen’s Association who donated 5000 CHF in the spring thanks to the sale of their traditional calendar, and the generosity of the CERN community. A huge thank you to the firemen for their devotion to our cause. And thank you to all those who have opened their door, their heart, and their purses! Similarly, we warmly thank the CERN Yoga Club once again for its wonderful donation of 2000 CHF we recently received. We would also like to tell you that all our projects are running well. Just to remind you, we are currently supporting the activities of the «Réflexe-Partage» Association in Mali; the training centre of «Education et Développement» in Abomey, Benin; and the orphanage and ...

  17. Circulating tumor cells in peripheral and pulmonary venous blood predict poor long-term survival in resected non-small cell lung cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yunsong; Cheng, Xu; Chen, Zhong; Liu, Yi; Liu, Zhidong; Xu, Shaofa

    2017-07-10

    We tested the hypothesis that circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in preoperative peripheral blood (PPB) and intraoperative pulmonary venous blood (IPVB) could predict poor long-term survival in resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. CTCs were separated from blood using magnetic beads coated with antibodies against epithelial-cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) via magnetic-activated cell sorting (MACS). CTCs were quantified with fluorescence-labeled antibodies against pan-cytokeratin through flow cytometry. CTCs were quantified in PPB and IPVB in 23 consecutive stage I-IIIA patients with resected NSCLC. The association between CTCs and prognosis in these patients was evaluated after a 5-year follow-up. In NSCLC patients, outcomes were assessed according to CTC levels at surgery. NSCLC patients identified as high-risk groups exhibited >5 CTCs/15 mL in PPB and >50 CTCs/15 mL in IPVB. Univariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed that the CTC count in PPB or IPVB was an independent risk factor for tumor-free surivival (TFS) and overall survival (OS). The high-risk group of patients had a shorter median TFS (22 months vs. >60.0 months, p 60 months, p PPB and IPVB was an independent risk factor for TFS and OS in resected NSCLC patients.

  18. Quiet eye training aids the long-term learning of throwing and catching in children: Preliminary evidence for a predictive control strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, C A L; Wood, G; Vine, S J; Vickers, J N; Wilson, M R

    2017-02-01

    Quiet eye training (QET) may be a more effective method for teaching children to catch than traditional training (TT) methods, but it is unclear if the benefits accrued persist in the long term. Thirty children were randomly allocated into a QET or TT group and, while wearing a mobile eye tracker, underwent baseline testing, training and two retention tests over a period of eight weeks, using a validated throw and catch task. During training, movement-related information was provided to both groups, while the QET group received additional instruction to increase the duration of their targeting fixation (QE1) on the wall prior to the throw, and pursuit tracking (QE2) period on the ball prior to catching. In both immediate (R1) and delayed (R2, six weeks later) retention tests, the QET group had a significantly longer QE1 duration and an earlier and longer QE2 duration, compared to the TT group, who revealed no improvements. A performance advantage was also found for the QET compared to the TT group at both R1 and R2, revealing the relatively robust nature of the visuomotor alterations. Regression analyses suggested that only the duration of QE1 predicted variance in catch success post-training, pointing to the importance of a pre-programming visuomotor strategy for successful throw and catch performance.

  19. Early weight loss predicts the reduction of obesity in men with erectile dysfunction and hypogonadism undergoing long-term testosterone replacement therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salman, Mahmoud; Yassin, Dany-Jan; Shoukfeh, Huda; Nettleship, Joanne Elisabeth; Yassin, Aksam

    2017-03-01

    We and others have previously shown that testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) results in sustained weight loss in the majority of middle-aged hypogonadal men. Previously, however, a small proportion failed to lose at least 5% of their baseline weight. The reason for this is not yet understood. In the present study, we sought to identify early indicators that may predict successful long-term weight loss, defined as a reduction of at least 5% of total body weight relative to baseline weight (T0), in men with hypogonadism undergoing TRT. Eight parameters measured were assessed as potential predictors of sustained weight loss: loss of 3% or more of baseline weight after 1 year of TU treatment, severe hypogonadism, BMI, waist circumference, International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C), age and use of vardenafil. Among the eight measured parameters, three factors were significantly associated with sustained weight loss over the entire period of TU treatment: (1) a loss of 3% of the baseline body weight after 1 year of TRT; (2) baseline BMI over 30; and (3) a waist circumference >102 cm. Age was not a predictor of weight loss.

  20. Living on the edge: adaptive and plastic responses of the tree Nothofagus pumilio to a long-term transplant experiment predict rear-edge upward expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathiasen, Paula; Premoli, Andrea C

    2016-06-01

    Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests.

  1. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arizzi, Anna, E-mail: anna.arizzi@ouce.ox.ac.uk [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Viles, Heather [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Martín-Sanchez, Inés [Departamento de Microbiología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain); Cultrone, Giuseppe [Departamento de Mineralogía y Petrología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain)

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  2. Persistence of Amygdala-Hippocampal Connectivity and Multi-Voxel Correlation Structures During Awake Rest After Fear Learning Predicts Long-Term Expression of Fear

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, E.J.; Kanen, J.W.; Tambini, A.; Fernandez, G.; Davachi, L.; Phelps, E.A.

    2017-01-01

    After encoding, memories undergo a process of consolidation that determines long-term retention. For conditioned fear, animal models postulate that consolidation involves reactivations of neuronal assemblies supporting fear learning during postlearning "offline" periods. However, no human studies to

  3. Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Conrad, Christian; Loch, Karin

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the relationship between long-term U.S. stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results provide strong evidence in favor of counter-cyclical behavior of long-term stock market volatility. Among the various macro variables in our dataset the term spread, housing starts, corporate profits and the unemployment rate have the highest predictive ability for stock market volatility . While the term spread and housing starts are...

  4. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mould, R. F.; Lederman, M.; Tai, P.; Wong, J. K. M.

    2002-11-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  5. Long-term outcomes following post-operative radiotherapy for Stage I/II testicular seminoma - an Australasian single-institution experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Wee Loon; Nazareth, Lester; Hindson, Benjamin; Matheson, Bronwyn; Millar, Jeremy L

    2016-09-01

    The aim of the study is to review the long-term oncological outcomes and adverse effects of post-operative radiotherapy (PORT) for Stage I/II seminoma patients in an Australian radiation treatment centre. This is a retrospective study of 125 patients with Stage I/II seminoma treated with PORT at the Alfred Health Radiation Oncology Service between 1992 and 2013. Patients were linked to the Victorian Cancer Registry to enable confirmation of survival and diagnosis of secondary malignancies (SM). The relapse-free survival (RFS), testicular-cancer-specific survival (TCSS), overall survival (OS) and SM-free survival (SMFS) were estimated with Kaplan-Meier methods. The median age at diagnosis was 36 (range 20-62). The median time between diagnosis and PORT was 1.6 months (range: 0.5-4.5). Fifty patients (40%) had PORT to the para-aortic (PA) target alone, while the remaining had PORT to PA and ipsilateral or bilateral iliac lymph nodes. There were no acute adverse effects requiring admission. The median follow-up after PORT was 7.8 years (range = 0.1-19.1). There were two relapses, both of which occurred within 1 year of PORT (estimated 10-year RFS = 98.4%). Five deaths were reported, none of which were testicular cancer-related death (estimated 10-year TCSS = 100%, 10-year OS = 97.3%). There were seven SM (one lower lip cancer, one upper shoulder melanoma, one mesothelioma, two prostate cancer, one acute myeloid leukaemia and one contralateral testicular seminoma) reported in six patients, with estimated 10-year SMFS of 92.9%. Our series confirms excellent oncological outcomes among patients with Stage I/II seminoma treated with PORT, with uncommon occurrence of SM.

  6. Ischemia-modified albumin levels predict long-term outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction. The French Nationwide OPERA study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Belle, Eric; Dallongeville, Jean; Vicaut, Eric; Degrandsart, Alexia; Baulac, Cathrine; Montalescot, Gilles

    2010-04-01

    Little is known about the capacity of ischemia-modified albumin (IMA) plasma concentration to predict long-term cardiac outcome in patients with established acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Because IMA is a marker of ischemia rather than myocardial cell damage, we hypothesized that IMA plasma levels could provide additional prognostic value to classic clinical and biological risk markers in patients with AMI. Therefore, we investigated the predictive value of plasma IMA in patients with AMI enrolled in the French Nationwide OPERA study. Plasma concentrations of IMA and other cardiac biomarkers (troponin, C-reactive protein, B-type natriuretic peptide) were measured within 24 hours of hospital admission in 471 patients hospitalized with an AMI (defined using European Society of Cardiology/American College of Cardiology criteria). Patients' characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors and treatments, and clinical outcomes were recorded. Univariate and multivariable predictors of cardiac outcome in-hospital and at 1 year were identified. The primary composite end point (death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, recurrent myocardial infarction or ischemia, heart failure, stroke) occurred in 75 (15.6%) patients in-hospital and in 144 (30.6%) at 1 year: 40% of patients in the highest IMA quartile (>104 IU/mL) reached the end point compared with 20% in the lowest (<83 IU/mL) by 1 year. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified 4 independent predictors of composite end point at 1 year: plasma concentrations of IMA (P = .01), brain natriuretic peptide (P = .001), heart failure (P = .005), and age (P = .003). In patients with AMI, IMA measured within 24 hours is a strong and independent predictor of cardiac outcome at 1 year and may help identify those requiring more aggressive medical management. Copyright 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Long-term observations of cloud condensation nuclei in the Amazon rain forest - Part 1: Aerosol size distribution, hygroscopicity, and new model parametrizations for CCN prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöhlker, Mira L.; Pöhlker, Christopher; Ditas, Florian; Klimach, Thomas; Hrabe de Angelis, Isabella; Araújo, Alessandro; Brito, Joel; Carbone, Samara; Cheng, Yafang; Chi, Xuguang; Ditz, Reiner; Gunthe, Sachin S.; Kesselmeier, Jürgen; Könemann, Tobias; Lavrič, Jošt V.; Martin, Scot T.; Mikhailov, Eugene; Moran-Zuloaga, Daniel; Rose, Diana; Saturno, Jorge; Su, Hang; Thalman, Ryan; Walter, David; Wang, Jian; Wolff, Stefan; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Artaxo, Paulo; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich

    2016-12-01

    Size-resolved long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and hygroscopicity were conducted at the remote Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) in the central Amazon Basin over a 1-year period and full seasonal cycle (March 2014-February 2015). The measurements provide a climatology of CCN properties characteristic of a remote central Amazonian rain forest site.The CCN measurements were continuously cycled through 10 levels of supersaturation (S = 0.11 to 1.10 %) and span the aerosol particle size range from 20 to 245 nm. The mean critical diameters of CCN activation range from 43 nm at S = 1.10 % to 172 nm at S = 0.11 %. The particle hygroscopicity exhibits a pronounced size dependence with lower values for the Aitken mode (κAit = 0.14 ± 0.03), higher values for the accumulation mode (κAcc = 0.22 ± 0.05), and an overall mean value of κmean = 0.17 ± 0.06, consistent with high fractions of organic aerosol.The hygroscopicity parameter, κ, exhibits remarkably little temporal variability: no pronounced diurnal cycles, only weak seasonal trends, and few short-term variations during long-range transport events. In contrast, the CCN number concentrations exhibit a pronounced seasonal cycle, tracking the pollution-related seasonality in total aerosol concentration. We find that the variability in the CCN concentrations in the central Amazon is mostly driven by aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution, while variations in aerosol hygroscopicity and chemical composition matter only during a few episodes.For modeling purposes, we compare different approaches of predicting CCN number concentration and present a novel parametrization, which allows accurate CCN predictions based on a small set of input data.

  8. Low total cortisol correlates closely with low free cortisol in traumatic brain injury and predicts mortality and long-term hypopituitarism

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hannon, M J

    2011-06-01

    Published data has demonstrated that low 0900h plasma total cortisol (PTC) in the acute phase following traumatic brain injury (TBI) predicts mortality. However, there is concern regarding the use of PTC to evaluate the pituitary-adrenal axis in acutely unwell patients due to potential discrepancies between PTC and plasma free cortisol (PFC) due to variations in corticosteroid binding globulin (CBG). We hypothesised that low PTC would correlate closely with PFC and would predict mortality and long-term hypopituitarism.100 patients (84 men, median age 33, range 18-75) were recruited on admission with TBI (mean GCS+\\/-SD = 8.59+\\/-4.2). Each patient had PTC and CBG measured on days 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 following TBI. Results were compared with 15 patients admitted to ITU following vascular surgery. A PTC <300nmol\\/L in a patient in ITU was regarded clinically as inappropriately low. PFC was calculated for 25% of TBI samples and all control samples using Coolen\\'s equation (1). TBI patients reattended for dynamic pituitary testing >6 months after TBI.All controls had PTC >500 nmol\\/L on day 1, and >300 nmol on days 3–10. By contrast, 78\\/100 TBI patients had at least one PTC <300 nmol\\/L.TBI patients in the lowest quartile of final PTC measurement had the highest mortality (p=0.0187). PTC correlated closely with PFC in both TBI patients (r=0.99, p<0.0001) and controls (r=0.99, p<0.0001). 32\\/79 (40.5%) of TBI survivors attended for dynamic pituitary testing. The median time to dynamic pituitary testing was 14 months (range 6–24 months). 15\\/32 (46.9%) underwent insulin tolerance testing, 9\\/32 (28.1%) underwent glucagon testing and 8\\/32 (25%) underwent short synacthen testing. 6\\/32 (18.8%) were ACTH deficient, of whom 5\\/6 (83.3%) previously had low PTC. 6\\/32 were GH deficient, all of whom previously had low PTC. One patient was gonadotropin deficient; he previously had low PTC. No patients were TSH or prolactin deficient. Overall, 12\\/32 (37

  9. Modelo de previsão de value at risk utilizando volatilidade de longo prazo = Value at Risk prediction model using long term volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Tendo em vista a importância do Value at Risk (VaR como medida de risco para instituições financeiras e agências de risco, o presente estudo avaliou se o modelo ARLS é mais preciso no cálculo do VaR de longo prazo que os modelos tradicionais, dada sua maior adequação para a previsão da volatilidade. Considerando a utilização do VaR pelos agentes de mercado como medida de risco para o gerenciamento de portfólios é importante sua adequada mensuração. A partir de dados diários dos mercados de ações e cambial dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul foram calculadas as volatilidades futuras para 15 dias, 1 mês e 3 meses. Em seguida, calculou-se as medidas tradicionais de avaliação da precisão do VaR. Os resultados sugerem a superioridade do modelo ARLS para a previsão da volatilidade cambial, capaz de prever corretamente o número de violações em 33% dos casos, enquanto os modelos tradicionais não obtiveram um bom desempenho. Com relação ao mercado acionário, os modelos GARCH e ARLS apresentaram desempenho similar. O modelo GARCH é superior considerando a perda média quadrática. Esses resultados apontam para a escolha do modelo ARLS no cálculo do VaR de portfólios cambiais devido a maior precisão alcançada. Ajuda assim os agentes de mercado a melhor gerirem o risco de suas carteiras. Em relação ao mercado acionário, em função do desempenho similar dos modelos GARCH e ARLS, o modelo GARCH é o mais indicado devido a sua maior simplicidade e fácil implementação computacional. Having in mind the importance of Value at Risk (VaR as a risk measure for financial institutions and rating agencies, this study evaluated whether the ARLS model is more accurate in the calculation of the long term VaR than the traditional models, considering it is more appropriate for predicting the long-term volatility. Due to the fact that VaR s being used for market players as a measure of risk for the portfolio

  10. Operational Dust Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, Jose M.; Basart, Sara; Benincasa, Francesco; Boucher, Olivier; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Chen, Jen-Ping; Colarco, Peter R.; Gong, Sunlin; Huneeus, Nicolas; Jones, Luke; Lu, Sarah; Menut, Laurent; Morcrette, Jean-Jacques; Mulcahy, Jane; Nickovic, Slobodan; Garcia-Pando, Carlos P.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Sekiyama, Thomas T.; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Terradellas, Enric; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Xiao-Ye; Zhou, Chun-Hong

    2014-01-01

    Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed.

  11. Value of the first post-transplant biopsy for predicting long-term cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV and graft failure in heart transplant patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A Labarrere

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV is the principal cause of long-term graft failure following heart transplantation. Early identification of patients at risk of CAV is essential to target invasive follow-up procedures more effectively and to establish appropriate therapies. We evaluated the prognostic value of the first heart biopsy (median: 9 days post-transplant versus all biopsies obtained within the first three months for the prediction of CAV and graft failure due to CAV. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a prospective cohort study, we developed multivariate regression models evaluating markers of atherothrombosis (fibrin, antithrombin and tissue plasminogen activator [tPA] and endothelial activation (intercellular adhesion molecule-1 in serial biopsies obtained during the first three months post-transplantation from 172 patients (median follow-up = 6.3 years; min = 0.37 years, max = 16.3 years. Presence of fibrin was the dominant predictor in first-biopsy models (Odds Ratio [OR] for one- and 10-year graft failure due to CAV = 38.70, p = 0.002, 95% CI = 4.00-374.77; and 3.99, p = 0.005, 95% CI = 1.53-10.40 and loss of tPA was predominant in three-month models (OR for one- and 10-year graft failure due to CAV = 1.81, p = 0.025, 95% CI = 1.08-3.03; and 1.31, p = 0.001, 95% CI = 1.12-1.55. First-biopsy and three-month models had similar predictive and discriminative accuracy and were comparable in their capacities to correctly classify patient outcomes, with the exception of 10-year graft failure due to CAV in which the three-month model was more predictive. Both models had particularly high negative predictive values (e.g., First-biopsy vs. three-month models: 99% vs. 100% at 1-year and 96% vs. 95% at 10-years. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with absence of fibrin in the first biopsy and persistence of normal tPA in subsequent biopsies rarely develop CAV or graft failure during the next 10 years and potentially could be monitored less invasively

  12. Diagnostic Accuracy of Post Procedural Creatine Kinase, MB Form can Predict Long-Term Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Selective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maadani, Mohsen; Parchami-Ghazaee, Sepideh; Barati, Ghodratollah; Soltani, Monireh; Amiri, Elahe; Ghadrdoost, Behshid; Heidarali, Mona

    2014-02-01

    Measuring cardiac markers in blood has been the main strategy for the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction for nearly 50 years. Creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB) has been demonstrated to be a highly specific marker. The present study aimed to assess the role of CK-MB changes following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to predict one year outcomes of this procedure. This cohort study was conducted on 138 patients diagnosed with coronary artery disease who underwent PCI. Sixty-nine patients who had a CK-MB elevation ≥ 3 times upper limit of normal (ULN) post procedurally were considered as group I and 69 patients without cardiac enzyme rise after PCI were considered as the control group (group II). The composite end point of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) during one year was assessed by telephone follow-up or presentation at clinical visiting, and compared between the two groups. The MACE was defined as the appearance of at least one of the following events: mortality, repeated revascularization procedures, myocardial infarction, or cerebrovascular events. Although one year mortality in the group I was 4 (5.8%), about two times greater than the other group 2 (2.9%), the difference was not significantly discrepant (P = 0.57). Moreover, 8 (11.6%) of patients in group I experienced one year MACE, while this rate in the other group was 4 (5.8%), with insignificant difference (P = 0.22). In group I, one case experienced coronary artery bypass surgery, one, exhibited cerebrovascular disease and one reported ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), while two patients in the other group were suspicious of having non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and candidates for repeated PCI. Multivariate analysis revealed that increased post-procedural CK-MB ≥ 3 times UNL could not predict long-term MACE in patients who underwent selective PCI. Area under the curve (AUC) for predicting one year MACE was 0.593 (95% CI: 0.397 - 0

  13. Long-term Outcomes of Cardiac Function in Children with Pectus Excavatum After Operation%漏斗胸术后心功能远期随访

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冯杰雄; 胡廷泽; 刘文英; 朱琦; 韦福康; 蒋小平; 唐耘熳

    1999-01-01

    Objective To assess the long-term effects on cardiac function after operative correction of pectus excavatum(PE)in children.Methods Fomy-one children with PE underwent M-mode echocardiogram before and 2-8 years after the corrective operation.Forty-one children whose gender,age and body weight matched with these patients were served as control.Results Preoperative ejection fraction(EF)and velocity of circumferential fibet shortening(MVCF)were significantly lower than those of the controls (P<0.01),whereas stroke volume(SV)and fractional shortening of the minor semi-axis(FS)showed no difference(P>0.05).Postoperatively,there was no change in FS,but EF,MVCF and SV increased significantly(P<0.05)and were comparable to those of the controls(P>0.05).Conclusions Cardiac function in patients with PE was compromised.It can he gradually restored to normal after correction.%目的 探讨漏斗胸术后心脏功能的变化.方法 用超声心动图测定41例漏斗胸患儿术前、术后的心脏功能,并选择年龄、性别、身高、体重相同的正常儿童作对照.结果 漏斗胸患儿术前射血分数(EF)与平均左心室周径缩短率(MVCF)与对照组相比有降低(P<0.05),长期随访发现息儿术后EF、MVCF与每搏输出量较术前有上升(P<0.01),而且这些指标与对照组相比差异无显著性(P>0.05).结论 漏斗胸术后患儿的心脏功能可恢复正常.

  14. Is it possible to predict long-term success with k-NN? Case study of four market indices (FTSE100, DAX, HANGSENG, NASDAQ)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Y.; Gorban, A. N.; Y Yang, T.

    2014-03-01

    This case study tests the possibility of prediction for 'success' (or 'winner') components of four stock & shares market indices in a time period of three years from 02-Jul-2009 to 29-Jun-2012.We compare their performance ain two time frames: initial frame three months at the beginning (02/06/2009-30/09/2009) and the final three month frame (02/04/2012-29/06/2012).To label the components, average price ratio between two time frames in descending order is computed. The average price ratio is defined as the ratio between the mean prices of the beginning and final time period. The 'winner' components are referred to the top one third of total components in the same order as average price ratio it means the mean price of final time period is relatively higher than the beginning time period. The 'loser' components are referred to the last one third of total components in the same order as they have higher mean prices of beginning time period. We analyse, is there any information about the winner-looser separation in the initial fragments of the daily closing prices log-returns time series.The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation with k-NN algorithm is applied on the daily log-return of components using a distance and proximity in the experiment. By looking at the error analysis, it shows that for HANGSENG and DAX index, there are clear signs of possibility to evaluate the probability of long-term success. The correlation distance matrix histograms and 2-D/3-D elastic maps generated from ViDaExpert show that the 'winner' components are closer to each other and 'winner'/'loser' components are separable on elastic maps for HANGSENG and DAX index while for the negative possibility indices, there is no sign of separation.

  15. Long-Term Outcome and Quality of Life of Patients With Endometrial Carcinoma Treated With or Without Pelvic Radiotherapy in the Post Operative Radiation Therapy in Endometrial Carcinoma 1 (PORTEC-1) Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nout, Remi A.; van de Poll-Franse, Lonneke V.; Lybeert, Marnix L. M.; Warlam-Rodenhuis, Carla C.; Jobsen, Jan J.; Mens, Jan Willem M.; Lutgens, Ludy C. H. W.; Pras, Betty; van Putten, Wim L. J.; Creutzberg, Carien L.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose To determine the long-term outcome and health-related quality of life (HRQL) of patients with endometrial carcinoma (EC) treated with or without pelvic radiotherapy in the Post Operative Radiation Therapy in Endometrial Carcinoma 1 (PORTEC-1) trial. Patients and Methods Between 1990 and 1997

  16. An acute fall in estimated glomerular filtration rate during treatment with losartan predicts a slower decrease in long-term renal function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtkamp, Frank A; de Zeeuw, Dick; Thomas, Merlin C

    2011-01-01

    Intervention in the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system (RAAS) is associated with slowing the progressive loss of renal function. During initiation of therapy, however, there may be an acute fall in glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We tested whether this initial fall in GFR reflects a renal hem......GFR, during losartan treatment, the slower the rate of long-term eGFR decline. Hence, interpretation of trial results relying on slope-based GFR outcomes should separate the initial drug-induced GFR change from the subsequent long-term effect on GFR....

  17. Prediction of long-term properties of by-products - Technical and environmental properties in roads; Foerutsaegelse av laangtidsegenskaper hos restprodukter - Teknik och miljoe i vaegar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arm, Maria; Suer, Pascal; Arvidsson, Haakan; Lindqvist, Jan-Erik; Frogner-Kockum, Paul; Larsson, Lennart; Toomvaeli, Cecilia

    2008-12-15

    In Sweden, use of industrial by-products is still hindered by concern for their long-term properties. This report describes a three-year research project aiming to: - Identify the key processes of ageing related to the usefulness of by-products in roads; - investigate the consequences of these processes for technical and environmental properties of the by-products, and - propose a method for accelerated ageing to predict the long-term properties. The project has compared naturally aged samples of two by-products used as sub-bases in existing asphalt paved roads with samples of fresh by-products from producers' piles. Steel slag of electric arc furnace type and municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) bottom ash was chosen. The samples were thoroughly characterized in order to identify which ageing processes had been crucial. The following properties were studied: grain size distribution, water content, compaction properties, deformation properties according to cyclic load triaxial tests, mineralogy and micro structure according to SEM and XRD, chemical composition, pH and leaching properties. For the bottom ash also organic content and electric conductivity was studied. Furthermore the pH was mapped in both roads and the conductivity was mapped in the bottom ash road. The working hypothesis was that ageing processes lead to changes in pH, effective particle size and mineralogy, which in turn determine leaching, stiffness and stability of the material. The test results confirmed that the pavement edge material is ageing faster than the road centre material is. In addition it was concluded that: - Steel slag from the pavement edge showed traces of carbonation and leaching processes, whereas slag from the road centre was identical to fresh slag. - Bottom ash from the pavement edge was more aged than bottom ash from the road centre. However, no difference in pH was found, instead the differences were said to be caused by differences in water exposure. - Water

  18. Using spatial-stream-network models and long-term data to understand and predict dynamics of faecal contamination in a mixed land-use catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neill, Aaron James; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Strachan, Norval James Colin; Hough, Rupert Lloyd; Avery, Lisa Marie; Watson, Helen; Soulsby, Chris

    2017-09-04

    An 11year dataset of concentrations of E. coli at 10 spatially-distributed sites in a mixed land-use catchment in NE Scotland (52km(2)) revealed that concentrations were not clearly associated with flow or season. The lack of a clear flow-concentration relationship may have been due to greater water fluxes from less-contaminated headwaters during high flows diluting downstream concentrations, the importance of persistent point sources of E. coli both anthropogenic and agricultural, and possibly the temporal resolution of the dataset. Point sources and year-round grazing of livestock probably obscured clear seasonality in concentrations. Multiple linear regression models identified potential for contamination by anthropogenic point sources as a significant predictor of long-term spatial patterns of low, average and high concentrations of E. coli. Neither arable nor pasture land was significant, even when accounting for hydrological connectivity with a topographic-index method. However, this may have reflected coarse-scale land-cover data inadequately representing "point sources" of agricultural contamination (e.g. direct defecation of livestock into the stream) and temporal changes in availability of E. coli from diffuse sources. Spatial-stream-network models (SSNMs) were applied in a novel context, and had value in making more robust catchment-scale predictions of concentrations of E. coli with estimates of uncertainty, and in enabling identification of potential "hot spots" of faecal contamination. Successfully managing faecal contamination of surface waters is vital for safeguarding public health. Our finding that concentrations of E. coli could not clearly be associated with flow or season may suggest that management strategies should not necessarily target only high flow events or summer when faecal contamination risk is often assumed to be greatest. Furthermore, we identified SSNMs as valuable tools for identifying possible "hot spots" of contamination which

  19. Distinguishing Low-Risk Luminal A Breast Cancer Subtypes with Ki-67 and p53 Is More Predictive of Long-Term Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Se Kyung; Bae, Soo Youn; Lee, Jun Ho; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Yi, Hawoo; Kil, Won Ho; Lee, Jeong Eon; Kim, Seok Won; Nam, Seok Jin

    2015-01-01

    Overexpression of p53 is the most frequent genetic alteration in breast cancer. Recently, many studies have shown that the expression of mutant p53 differs for each subtype of breast cancer and is associated with different prognoses. In this study, we aimed to determine the suitable cut-off value to predict the clinical outcome of p53 overexpression and its usefulness as a prognostic factor in each subtype of breast cancer, especially in luminal A breast cancer. Approval was granted by the Institutional Review Board of Samsung Medical Center. We analyzed a total of 7,739 patients who were surgically treated for invasive breast cancer at Samsung Medical Center between Dec 1995 and Apr 2013. Luminal A subtype was defined as ER&PR + and HER2- and was further subclassified according to Ki-67 and p53 expression as follows: luminal A (Ki-67-,p53-), luminal A (Ki-67+, p53-), luminal A (Ki-67 -, p53+) and luminal A (Ki-67+, p53+). Low-risk luminal A subtype was defined as negative for both Ki-67 and p53 (luminal A [ki-67-, p53-]), and others subtypes were considered to be high-risk luminal A breast cancer. A cut-off value of 10% for p53 was a good predictor of clinical outcome in all patients and luminal A breast cancer patients. The prognostic role of p53 overexpression for OS and DFS was only significant in luminal A subtype. The combination of p53 and Ki-67 has been shown to have the best predictive power as calculated by the area under curve (AUC), especially for long-term overall survival. In this study, we have shown that overexpression of p53 and Ki-67 could be used to discriminate low-risk luminal A subtype in breast cancer. Therefore, using the combination of p53 and Ki-67 expression in discriminating low-risk luminal A breast cancer may improve the prognostic power and provide the greatest clinical utility.

  20. Operant conditioning of the soleus H-reflex does not induce long-term changes in the gastrocnemius H-reflexes and does not disturb normal locomotion in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makihara, Yukiko; Segal, Richard L; Wolpaw, Jonathan R; Thompson, Aiko K

    2014-09-15

    In normal animals, operant conditioning of the spinal stretch reflex or the H-reflex has lesser effects on synergist muscle reflexes. In rats and people with incomplete spinal cord injury (SCI), soleus H-reflex operant conditioning can improve locomotion. We studied in normal humans the impact of soleus H-reflex down-conditioning on medial (MG) and lateral gastrocnemius (LG) H-reflexes and on locomotion. Subjects completed 6 baseline and 30 conditioning sessions. During conditioning trials, the subject was encouraged to decrease soleus H-reflex size with the aid of visual feedback. Every sixth session, MG and LG H-reflexes were measured. Locomotion was assessed before and after conditioning. In successfully conditioned subjects, the soleus H-reflex decreased 27.2%. This was the sum of within-session (task dependent) adaptation (13.2%) and across-session (long term) change (14%). The MG H-reflex decreased 14.5%, due mainly to task-dependent adaptation (13.4%). The LG H-reflex showed no task-dependent adaptation or long-term change. No consistent changes were detected across subjects in locomotor H-reflexes, EMG activity, joint angles, or step symmetry. Thus, in normal humans, soleus H-reflex down-conditioning does not induce long-term changes in MG/LG H-reflexes and does not change locomotion. In these subjects, task-dependent adaptation of the soleus H-reflex is greater than it is in people with SCI, whereas long-term change is less. This difference from results in people with SCI is consistent with the fact that long-term change is beneficial in people with SCI, since it improves locomotion. In contrast, in normal subjects, long-term change is not beneficial and may necessitate compensatory plasticity to preserve satisfactory locomotion. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

  1. Differential Effects on Student Demographic Groups of Using ACT® College Readiness Assessment Composite Score, Act Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average for Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion. ACT Research Report Series, 2013 (5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we evaluated the differential effects on racial/ethnic, family income, and gender groups of using ACT® College Readiness Assessment Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours…

  2. Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT[R] Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average. ACT Research Report Series, 2012 (5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

    2012-01-01

    This study compared the effectiveness of ACT[R] Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours earned), degree completion, and cumulative grade point average (GPA) at 150% of normal time to degree…

  3. Using Psychodynamic, Cognitive Behavioral, and Control Mastery Prototypes to Predict Change: A New Look at an Old Paradigm for Long-Term Single-Case Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pole, Nnamdi; Ablon, J. Stuart; O'Connor, Lynn E.

    2008-01-01

    This article illustrates a method of testing models of change in individual long-term psychotherapy cases. A depressed client was treated with 208 sessions of control mastery therapy (CMT), an unmanualized approach that integrates elements of psychodynamic therapy (PDT) and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Panels of experts developed prototypes…

  4. An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

  5. A short-term antihypertensive treatment-induced fall in glomerular filtration rate predicts long-term stability of renal function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apperloo, AJ; deZeeuw, D; deJong, PE

    1997-01-01

    In long-term intervention studies on renal function outcome an initial decline in the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) may occur after starting therapy. If this initial GFR decline is the result of a treatment-induced hemodynamic change reflecting a fall in intraglomerular pressure, it should be rev

  6. An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

  7. The predictive value of early acute kidney injury for long-term survival and quality of life of critically ill patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, Ivo W; Frencken, Jos F; Peelen, Linda M|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314038426; Slooter, Arjen J C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/173059740; Cremer, Olaf L|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304815683; van Delden, Johannes J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/086541331; van Dijk, Diederik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/241616301; de Lange, Dylan W

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prognostic factors for the combination of long-term survival and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after intensive care unit (ICU) stay have not yet been studied. Our aim was to assess whether early acute kidney injury (eAKI), AKI occurring on the first day of ICU admission, is an i

  8. Predicting long-term independency in activities of daily living after middle cerebral artery stroke: does information from MRI have added predictive value compared with clinical information?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schiemanck, S.K.; Kwakkel, G.; Post, M.W.; Kappelle, L.J.; Prevo, A.J.

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To investigate whether neuroimaging information has added predictive value compared with clinical information for independency in activities of daily living (ADL) 1 year after stroke. METHODS: Seventy-five first-ever middle cerebral artery stroke survivors were evaluated in l

  9. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  10. Predicting the long-term (137)Cs distribution in Fukushima after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident: a parameter sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Kitamura, Akihiro; Oda, Yoshihiro; Onishi, Yasuo

    2014-09-01

    Radioactive materials deposited on the land surface of Fukushima Prefecture from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant explosion is a crucial issue for a number of reasons, including external and internal radiation exposure and impacts on agricultural environments and aquatic biota. Predicting the future distribution of radioactive materials and their fates is therefore indispensable for evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of remediation options regarding human health and the environment. Cesium-137, the main radionuclide to be focused on, is well known to adsorb to clay-rich soils; therefore its primary transportation mechanism is in the form of soil erosion on the land surface and transport of sediment-sorbed contaminants in the water system. In this study, we applied the Soil and Cesium Transport model, which we have developed, to predict a long-term cesium distribution in the Fukushima area, based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation and simple sediment discharge formulas. The model consists of calculation schemes of soil erosion, transportation and deposition, as well as cesium transport and its future distribution. Since not all the actual data on parameters is available, a number of sensitivity analyses were conducted here to find the range of the output results due to the uncertainties of parameters. The preliminary calculation indicated that a large amount of total soil loss remained in slope, and the residual sediment was transported to rivers, deposited in rivers and lakes, or transported farther downstream to the river mouths. Most of the sediment deposited in rivers and lakes consists of sand. On the other hand, most of the silt and clay portions transported to river were transported downstream to the river mouths. The rate of sediment deposition in the Abukuma River basin was three times as high as those of the other 13 river basins. This may be due to the larger catchment area and more moderate channel slope of the Abukuma River basin

  11. A long-term predictive validity study: can the CDI Short Form be used to predict language and early literacy skills four years later?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Can, Dilara Deniz; Ginsburg-Block, Marika; Golinkoff, Roberta Michnick; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathryn

    2013-09-01

    This longitudinal study examined the predictive validity of the MacArthur Communicative Developmental Inventories-Short Form (CDI-SF), a parent report questionnaire about children's language development (Fenson, Pethick, Renda, Cox, Dale & Reznick, 2000). Data were first gathered from parents on the CDI-SF vocabulary scores for seventy-six children (mean age=1 ; 10). Four years later (mean age=6 ; 1), children were assessed on language outcomes (expressive vocabulary, syntax, semantics and pragmatics) and code-related skills, including phonemic awareness, word recognition and decoding skills. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that early expressive vocabulary accounted for 17% of the variance in picture vocabulary, 11% of the variance in syntax, and 7% of the variance in semantics, while not accounting for any variance in pragmatics in kindergarten. CDI-SF scores did not predict code-related skills in kindergarten. The importance of early vocabulary skills for later language development and CDI-SF as a valuable research tool are discussed.

  12. Field Test Program for Long-Term Operation of a COHPAC System for Removing Mercury from Coal-Fired Flue Gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. Jean Bustard; Charles Lindsey; Paul Brignac

    2006-05-01

    This document provides a summary of the full-scale demonstration efforts involved in the project ''Field Test Program for Long-Term Operation of a COHPAC{reg_sign} System for Removing Mercury from Coal-Fired Flue Gas''. The project took place at Alabama Power's Plant Gaston Unit 3 and involved the injection of sorbent between an existing particulate collector (hot-side electrostatic precipitators) and a COHPAC{reg_sign} fabric filter (baghouse) downstream. Although the COHPAC{reg_sign} baghouse was designed originally for polishing the flue gas, when activated carbon injection was added, the test was actually evaluating the EPRI TOXECON{reg_sign} configuration. The results from the baseline tests with no carbon injection showed that the cleaning frequency in the COHPAC{reg_sign} unit was much higher than expected, and was above the target maximum cleaning frequency of 1.5 pulses/bag/hour (p/b/h), which was used during the Phase I test in 2001. There were times when the baghouse was cleaning continuously at 4.4 p/b/h. In the 2001 tests, there was virtually no mercury removal at baseline conditions. In this second round of tests, mercury removal varied between 0 and 90%, and was dependent on inlet mass loading. There was a much higher amount of ash exiting the electrostatic precipitators (ESP), creating an inlet loading greater than the design conditions for the COHPAC{reg_sign} baghouse. Tests were performed to try to determine the cause of the high ash loading. The LOI of the ash in the 2001 baseline tests was 11%, while the second baseline tests showed an LOI of 17.4%. The LOI is an indication of the carbon content in the ash, which can affect the native mercury uptake, and can also adversely affect the performance of ESPs, allowing more ash particles to escape the unit. To overcome this, an injection scheme was implemented that balanced the need to decrease carbon injection during times when inlet loading to the baghouse was high and

  13. Impact of Total Ionizing Dose Radiation Testing and Long-Term Thermal Cycling on the Operation of CMF20120D Silicon Carbide Power MOSFET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Richard L.; Scheidegger, Robert J.; Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Casey, Megan; Scheick, Leif; Hammoud, Ahmad

    2013-01-01

    Power systems designed for use in NASA space missions are required to work reliably under harsh conditions including radiation, thermal cycling, and extreme temperature exposures. Silicon carbide devices show great promise for use in future power electronics systems, but information pertaining to performance of the devices in the space environment is very scarce. A silicon carbide N-channel enhancement-mode power MOSFET called the CMF20120 is of interest for use in space environments. Samples of the device were exposed to radiation followed by long-term thermal cycling to address their reliability for use in space applications. The results of the experimental work are presentd and discussed.

  14. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in prediction and diagnosis of myocardial infarction and long-term mortality after noncardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagele, Peter; Brown, Frank; Gage, Brian F; Gibson, David W; Miller, J Philip; Jaffe, Allan S; Apple, Fred S; Scott, Mitchell G

    2013-08-01

    Perioperative myocardial infarction (MI) is a serious complication after noncardiac surgery. We hypothesized that preoperative cardiac troponin T detected with a novel high-sensitivity (hs-cTnT) assay will identify patients at risk for acute MI and long-term mortality after major noncardiac surgery. This was a prospective cohort study within the VINO trial (n = 608). Patients had been diagnosed with or had multiple risk factors for coronary artery disease and underwent major noncardiac surgery. Cardiac troponin I (contemporary assay) and troponin T (high-sensitivity assay) and 12-lead electrocardiograms were obtained before and immediately after surgery and on postoperative days 1, 2, and 3. At baseline before surgery, 599 patients (98.5%) had a detectable hs-cTnT concentration, and 247 (41%) were >14 ng/L (99th percentile). After surgery, 497 patients (82%) had a rise in hs-cTnT (median change in hs-cTnT +2.7 ng/L [interquartile range 0.7-6.8]). During the first 3 postoperative days, there were 9 patients (2.5%) with a preoperative hs-cTnT 14 ng/L (odds ratio 3.67, 95% CI 1.65-8.15). During long-term follow-up, 80 deaths occurred. The 3-year mortality rate was 11% in patients with a preoperative hs-cTnT concentration 14 ng/L (adjusted hazard ratio 2.17, 95% CI 1.19-3.96). In this cohort of high-risk patients, preoperative hs-cTnT concentrations were significantly associated with postoperative MI and long-term mortality after noncardiac surgery. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T in Prediction and Diagnosis of Myocardial Infarction and Long-Term Mortality after Non-Cardiac Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagele, Peter; Brown, Frank; Gage, Brian F.; Gibson, David W.; Miller, J. Philip; Jaffe, Allan S.; Apple, Fred S.; Scott, Mitchell G.

    2013-01-01

    Background Perioperative myocardial infarction is a serious complication after non-cardiac surgery. We hypothesized that preoperative cardiac troponin T detected with a novel high-sensitivity (hs-cTnT) assay will identify patients at risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and long-term mortality after major non-cardiac surgery. Methods This was a prospective cohort study within the Vitamins in Nitrous Oxide (VINO) trial (n=608). Patients had been diagnosed with or had multiple risk factors for coronary artery disease and underwent major non-cardiac surgery. Cardiac troponin I (contemporary assay) and troponin T (high-sensitivity assay), and 12-lead electrocardiograms were obtained before and immediately after surgery and on postoperative day 1, 2 and 3. Results At baseline before surgery, 599 patients (98.5%) had a detectable hs-cTnT concentration and 247 (41%) were above 14 ng/L (99th percentile). After surgery, 497 patients (82%) had a rise in hs-cTnT (median Δhs-cTnT +2.7 ng/L [IQR 0.7, 6.8]). During the first three postoperative days, 9 patients (2.5%) with a preoperative hs-cTnT 14 ng/L (odds ratio, 3.67; 95% CI 1.65 – 8.15). During long-term follow-up, 80 deaths occurred. The 3-year mortality rate was 11% in patients with a preoperative hs-cTnT concentration 14 ng/L (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.17; 95% CI 1.19 – 3.96). Conclusions In this cohort of high-risk patients, preoperative hs-cTnT concentrations were significantly associated with postoperative myocardial infarction and long-term mortality after non-cardiac surgery. PMID:23895816

  16. Degradation of the pipe-steel structure upon long-term operation in contact with a hydrogen sulfide-containing medium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schastlivtsev, V. M.; Tabatchnikova, T. I.; Tereshchenko, N. A.; Yakovleva, I. L.

    2011-03-01

    The phase composition and structure of defect portions of pipelines after long-term service in contact with a hydrogen sulfide-containing medium have been investigated. From structural changes, the process of the initiation of cracks and fracture of a low-carbon ferritic-pearlitic steel containing slag-induced laminations and precipitates of sulfides of the (Fe,Mn)S type has been reconstructed. The conditions under which a block cementite substructure is formed in the course of service and a transformation of the plate-type shape of the carbide phase occurs have been analyzed. It has been established that the dispersed carbides precipitating in this case limit the mobility of dislocations and thereby favor degradation of service properties of the pipe steel.

  17. Long-Term Treatment with Citicoline Prevents Cognitive Decline and Predicts a Better Quality of Life after a First Ischemic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Sabín, Jose; Santamarina, Estevo; Maisterra, Olga; Jacas, Carlos; Molina, Carlos; Quintana, Manuel

    2016-03-16

    Stroke, as the leading cause of physical disability and cognitive impairment, has a very significant impact on patients' quality of life (QoL). The objective of this study is to know the effect of citicoline treatment in Qol and cognitive performance in the long-term in patients with a first ischemic stroke. This is an open-label, randomized, parallel study of citicoline vs. usual treatment. All subjects were selected 6 weeks after suffering a first ischemic stroke and randomized into parallel arms. Neuropsychological evaluation was performed at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years after stroke, and QoL was measured using the EuroQoL-5D questionnaire at 2 years. 163 patients were followed during 2 years. The mean age was 67.5 years-old, and 50.9% were women. Age and absence of citicoline treatment were independent predictors of both utility and poor quality of life. Patients with cognitive impairment had a poorer QoL at 2 years (0.55 vs. 0.66 in utility, p = 0.015). Citicoline treatment improved significantly cognitive status during follow-up (p = 0.005). In conclusion, treatment with long-term citicoline is associated with a better QoL and improves cognitive status 2 years after a first ischemic stroke.

  18. Long-Term Treatment with Citicoline Prevents Cognitive Decline and Predicts a Better Quality of Life after a First Ischemic Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Alvarez-Sabín

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Stroke, as the leading cause of physical disability and cognitive impairment, has a very significant impact on patients’ quality of life (QoL. The objective of this study is to know the effect of citicoline treatment in Qol and cognitive performance in the long-term in patients with a first ischemic stroke. This is an open-label, randomized, parallel study of citicoline vs. usual treatment. All subjects were selected 6 weeks after suffering a first ischemic stroke and randomized into parallel arms. Neuropsychological evaluation was performed at 1 month, 6 months, 1 year and 2 years after stroke, and QoL was measured using the EuroQoL-5D questionnaire at 2 years. 163 patients were followed during 2 years. The mean age was 67.5 years-old, and 50.9% were women. Age and absence of citicoline treatment were independent predictors of both utility and poor quality of life. Patients with cognitive impairment had a poorer QoL at 2 years (0.55 vs. 0.66 in utility, p = 0.015. Citicoline treatment improved significantly cognitive status during follow-up (p = 0.005. In conclusion, treatment with long-term citicoline is associated with a better QoL and improves cognitive status 2 years after a first ischemic stroke.

  19. The prediction of the level of personality organization on reduction of psychiatric symptoms and improvement of work ability in short- versus long-term psychotherapies during a 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi; Keinänen, Matti; Heinonen, Erkki; Virtala, Esa; Härkänen, Tommi

    2017-09-01

    How level of personality organization (LPO) predicts psychiatric symptoms and work ability in short- versus long-term psychotherapies is poorly known. We investigated the importance of the LPO on the benefits of short-term versus long-term psychotherapies. A cohort study based on 326 outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder was allocated to long-term (LPP) and short-term (SPP) psychodynamic psychotherapy, and solution-focused therapy (SFT). The LPO was assessed by interview at baseline and categorized into neuroses and higher level borderline. Outcome was assessed at baseline and 4-9 times during a 5-year follow-up, using self-report and interview-based measures of symptoms and work ability. For patients receiving SPP, improvement in work ability, symptom reduction, and the remission rate were more considerable in patients with neuroses than in higher level borderline patients, whereas LPP or SFT showed no notable differences in effectiveness in the two LPO groups. In patients with neuroses, improvement was more considerable in the short-term therapy groups during the first year of follow-up, and in higher level borderline patients LPP was more effective after 3 years of follow-up. The remission rate, defined as both symptom reduction and lack of auxiliary treatment, was higher in LPP than in SPP for both the LPO groups considered. In neuroses, short-term psychotherapy was associated with a more rapid reduction of symptoms and increase in work ability, whereas LPP was more effective for longer follow-ups in both LPO groups. Further large-scale studies are needed. Level of personality organization is relevant for selection between short- and long-term psychotherapies. Short-term therapy gives faster benefits for neurotic patients but not for patients with higher level borderline personality organization. Sustained remission from symptoms is more probable after long-term than short-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  20. The long term characteristics of greenschist

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Bo-An

    2016-04-01

    The greenschist in the Jinping II Hydropower Station in southwest China exhibits continuous creep behaviour because of the geological conditions in the region. This phenomenon illustrates the time-dependent deformation and progressive damage that occurs after excavation. In this study, the responses of greenschist to stress over time were determined in a series of laboratory tests on samples collected from the access tunnel walls at the construction site. The results showed that the greenschist presented time-dependent behaviour under long-term loading. The samples generally experienced two stages: transient creep and steady creep, but no accelerating creep. The periods of transient creep and steady creep increased with increasing stress levels. The long-term strength of the greenschist was identified based on the variation of creep strain and creep rate. The ratio of long-term strength to conventional strength was around 80% and did not vary much with confining pressures. A quantitative method for predicting the failure period of greenschist, based on analysis of the stress-strain curve, is presented and implemented. At a confining pressure of 40 MPa, greenschist was predicted to fail in 5000 days under a stress of 290 MPa and to fail in 85 days under the stress of 320 MPa, indicating that the long-term strength identified by the creep rate and creep strain is a reliable estimate.

  1. Long-term survival of patients with critical limb ischemia treated with iloprost: response rate and predictive criteria. A retrospective analysis of 102 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, E; Lucaccini, E; Berchiolli, R; Adami, D; Nuti, M; Dell'Omo, G; Farina, A; Panigada, G; Roberts, A T; Meini, S

    2016-12-01

    Critical limb ischemia (CLI) patients have poor long-term prognosis. We showed that iloprost improves outcomes (major amputation and survival) up a 5-year follow-up, but it is not known if in this length of time the survival curves, of clinical responders and non-responders, differ. A retrospective study enrolling 102 consecutive patients between 2004-2008, with clinical and instrumental (ultrasound, angiography, transcutaneous tensiometry of oxygen TcpO2 and carbon dioxide TcpCO2 in the affected and contralateral limbs) diagnosis of critical ischemia. All patients received the best medical therapy. Iloprost was administered (0.5-2 ng/kg/min 6 hours/day for 2-4 weeks) in all patients initially considered unsuitable for revascularization, repeating it regularly in time every six-twelve months in the case of positive response. The minimum expected follow-up was 4 years. 71.5% of patients were treated with iloprost and the responder rate was 71.2%. Most of the patients were regularly retreated with repeated cycles. Initial median supine TcpCO2 in symptomatic limb was higher in untreated patients than those treated (58 vs. 49 mmHg; p < 0.05) and in non-responders compared to responders (60 vs. 49 mmHg; p < 0.05). TcpCO2 directly and significantly correlated with the highest risk of mortality and seems to represent a new accurate prognostic criterion of unfavourable short and long-term response to prostanoid. In iloprost group, major amputations were significantly reduced. Revascularization was significantly higher in non-responders (57.1% vs. 11.5%; p < 0.05). There was a significantly higher prevalence of subsequent myocardial infarction in the non-iloprost group (27.6% vs. 9.6%; p < 0.05). The survival rate of non-responders was higher than untreated up until the second year (76.2% vs. 62%; p < 0.05). At 4 years we found higher survival in patients treated with iloprost (64.3% vs. 41% in untreated; p < 0.05) and in responders (75% vs. 38.1% in non-responders; p < 0

  2. Long-term results of a modified Spitzy shelf operation for residual hip dysplasia and subluxation. A fifty year follow-up study of fifty six children and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Anne Guro Vreim; Reikerås, Olav; Terjesen, Terje

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study were to establish long-term outcome of the Spitzy shelf-operation and evaluate whether the procedure would delay osteoarthritis. During 1954-1976, 56 patients (70 hips) underwent Spitzy shelf operation at a mean age of 11.9 years (5 to 22). Indications included residual hip dysplasia or subluxation with Centre-Edge angle shelf operation. Survival was assessed by Cox regression. Univariable Cox regression was performed separately for each variable. Potential predictors (p-value shelf procedure was 39.9 years (21 to 53). Survival fell from 83 % 30 years post-operatively, to 22 % at 50 years. Fifty-three hips (76 %) had undergone total hip replacement at mean age of 49.4 years (33 to 64). Seventeen hips had not received total hip replacement, mean survival 47.9 years (39 to 53). The study showed that Spitzy shelf-operation had satisfactory long-term outcome with hip-survival in almost 90 % at patient age 40 years. The results indicate that Spitzy shelf-operation postpone total hip replacement. We consider Spitzy shelf-operation a good alternative in patients above 8 years. In younger children the procedure is not recommended due to increased frequency of graft resorption.

  3. Global Longitudinal Strain by Echocardiography Predicts Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in a Low-Risk General Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biering-Sørensen, Tor; Biering-Sørensen, Sofie Reumert; Olsen, Flemming Javier

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Global longitudinal strain (GLS) is prognostic of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in various patient populations, but the prognostic utility of GLS for long-term cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the general population is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 1296...... participants in a general population study underwent a health examination, including echocardiography measurement of GLS. The primary end point was the composite of incident heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 149 (12%) participants were...... diagnosed with heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death. Lower GLS was associated with a higher risk of the composite end point (hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.17; Page...

  4. Predicting survival after acute exacerbation chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ACOPD: is long-term application of noninvasive ventilation the last life guard?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esquinas AM

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Antonio M Esquinas,1 Yoshinori Matsuoka,2 Sven Stieglitz3 1Intensive Care Unit, Hospital Morales Meseguer, Murcia, Spain; 2Saga Medical School Hospital, Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Saga, Japan; 3Clinic for Pneumology and Allergology, Centre for Sleep and Ventilation Medicine, Solingen, Germany Patients with acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ACOPD admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU still show substantial high hospital mortality (24%.1 After ICU discharge, long-term application noninvasive ventilation (NIV may be a reasonable and effective indication.2 However, hospital mortality shows higher mortality rates for patients with COPD surviving their first episode after 2 and 5 years.2,3 View original paper by Titlestad and colleagues.

  5. An exemplar-familiarity model predicts short-term and long-term probe recognition across diverse forms of memory search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosofsky, Robert M; Cox, Gregory E; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M

    2014-11-01

    Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across diverse conditions that manipulated relations between targets and foils across trials. Subjects saw lists of from 1 to 16 items followed by a single item recognition probe. In a varied-mapping condition, targets and foils could switch roles across trials; in a consistent-mapping condition, targets and foils never switched roles; and in an all-new condition, on each trial a completely new set of items formed the memory set. In the varied-mapping and all-new conditions, mean correct response times (RTs) and error proportions were curvilinear increasing functions of memory set size, with the RT results closely resembling ones from hybrid visual-memory search experiments reported by Wolfe (2012). In the consistent-mapping condition, new-probe RTs were invariant with set size, whereas old-probe RTs increased slightly with increasing study-test lag. With appropriate choice of psychologically interpretable free parameters, the model accounted well for the complete set of results. The work provides support for the hypothesis that a common set of processes involving exemplar-based familiarity may govern long-term and short-term probe recognition across wide varieties of memory- search conditions.

  6. Structural integrity of the corpus callosum predicts long-term transfer of fluid intelligence-related training gains in normal aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Dominik; Fischer, Florian Udo; Fesenbeckh, Johanna; Yakushev, Igor; Lelieveld, Irene Maria; Scheurich, Armin; Schermuly, Ingrid; Zschutschke, Lisa; Fellgiebel, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Although cognitive training usually improves cognitive test performance, the capability to transfer these training gains into respective or functionally related cognitive domains varies significantly. Since most studies demonstrate rather limited transfer effects in older adults, aging might be an important factor in transfer capability differences. This study investigated the transfer capability of logical reasoning training gains to a measure of Fluid Intelligence (Gf) in relation to age, general intelligence, and brain structural integrity as measured by diffusion tensor imaging. In a group of 41 highly educated healthy elderly, 71% demonstrated successful transfer immediately after a 4-week training session (i.e. short-term transfer). In a subgroup of 22% of subjects transfer maintained over a 3-month follow-up period (i.e. long-term transfer). While short-term transfer was not related to structural integrity, long-term transfer was associated with increased structural integrity in corpus and genu of the corpus callosum. Since callosal structural integrity was also related to age (in the present and foregoing studies), previously observed associations between age and transfer might be moderated by the structural integrity. Surprisingly, age was not directly associated with transfer in this study which could be explained by the multi-dependency of the structural integrity (modulating factors beside age, e.g. genetics). In this highly educated sample, general intelligence was not related to transfer suggesting that high intelligence is not sufficient for transfer in normal aging. Further studies are needed to reveal the interaction of transfer, age, and structural integrity and delineate mechanisms of age-dependent transfer capabilities.

  7. BNP but Not s-cTnln is associated with cardioembolic aetiology and predicts short and long term prognosis after cerebrovascular events.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Nigro

    Full Text Available We analyzed the prognostic value of b-type natriuretic peptide (BNP and sensitive cardiac Troponin (s-cTnI in patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA and their significance in predicting stroke aetiology.In a prospectively enrolled cohort we measured BNP and s-cTnI levels upon admission. Primary endpoints were mortality, unfavorable functional outcome and stroke recurrence after 90 days and after 12 months. Secondary endpoint was cardioembolic aetiology.In 441 patients BNP but not s-cTnI remained an independent predictor for death with an adjusted HR of 1.2 (95% CI 1.1-1.4 after 90 days and 1.2 (95% CI 1.0-1.3 after one year. The comparison of the Area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC of model A (age, NIHSS and model B (age, NIHSS, BNP showed an improvement in the prediction of mortality (0.85 (95% CI 0.79-0.90 vs. 0.86 (95% CI 0.81-0.92, Log Rank p = 0.004. Furthermore the category free net reclassification improvement (cfNRI when adding BNP to the multivariate model was 57.5%, p<0.0001. For the prediction of functional outcome or stroke recurrence both markers provided no incremental value. Adding BNP to a model including age, atrial fibrillation and heart failure lead to a higher discriminatory accuracy for identification of cardioembolic stroke than the model without BNP (AUC 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.80 vs. AUC 0.79, (95% CI 0.75-0.84, p = 0.008.BNP is an independent prognostic maker for overall mortality in patients with ischemic stroke or TIA and may improve the diagnostic accuracy to identify cardioembolic aetiology.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00390962.

  8. Long-term effects of a preoperative smoking cessation programme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villebro, Nete Munk; Pedersen, Tom; Møller, Ann M;

    2008-01-01

    Preoperative smoking intervention programmes reduce post-operative complications in smokers. Little is known about the long-term effect upon smoking cessation.......Preoperative smoking intervention programmes reduce post-operative complications in smokers. Little is known about the long-term effect upon smoking cessation....

  9. Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthiesen, Henning; Hilbert, Lisbeth Rischel; Gregory, David;

    2005-01-01

    Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems.......Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems....

  10. Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matthiesen, Henning; Hilbert, Lisbeth Rischel; Gregory, David

    2005-01-01

    Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems.......Long term corrosion of iron at the water logged site Nydam in Denmark; studies of enviroment, archaeological artefacts, and modern analogues, Prediction of long term corrosion behaviour in nuclear waste systems....

  11. 空调器运行性能影响因素简析%Analysis on the Long-term Performance of Air Conditioner Operation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏建军; 戴兴学; 叶檀

    2013-01-01

    The effects of on-off controlled air conditioners, outdoor temperature and dust contaminate on the performance of air conditioner are carried out on the 3 different rated capacity air conditioners in the paper. The results show that the effects on the cooling capacity and energy efficiency ratio are not more than 4% and 5% by on-off controlled air conditioner, 10% and 15% by temperature, 12% and 16% by dust contaminate respectively. So the dust contaminate and temperature on the air conditioner are important factors on evaluating the air conditioner is compliance with the long-term energy saving.%  本文通过3种不同额定制冷量的热泵型房间空调器研究了开停机、室外温度以及粉尘污染等因素对空调器长期运行性能的影响规律。结果表明,开停机对空调器制冷能力的最大衰减率不超过4%,EER不超过5%,室外温度对空调器制冷能力的最大衰减率不超过10%,EER不超过15%,粉尘污染对空调器制冷能力的最大衰减率不超过12%,EER不超过16%。因此,在实际评价空调器是否满足长效节能要求时,需着重考虑粉尘污染和温度负荷两个因素对空调器长期运行性能的影响。

  12. Assessing operative natural and anthropogenic forcing factors from long-term climate time series of Uttarakhand (India) in the backdrop of recurring extreme rainfall events over northwest Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnihotri, Rajesh; Dimri, A. P.; Joshi, H. M.; Verma, N. K.; Sharma, C.; Singh, J.; Sundriyal, Y. P.

    2017-05-01

    The entire Indo-Himalayan region from northwest (Kashmir) to northeast (Assam) is facing prevalence of floods and landslides in recent years causing massive loss of property, human and animal lives, infrastructure, and eventually threatening tourist activities substantially. Extremely intense rainfall event of 2013 C.E. (between 15 and 17 June) kicked off mammoth flash floods in the Kedarnath area of Uttarakhand state, resulting in huge socioeconomic losses to the state and country. Uttarakhand is an important hilly region attracting thousands of tourists every year owing to numerous shrines and forested mountainous tourist spots. Though recent studies indicate a plausible weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall overall, recurrent anomalous high rainfall events over northwest Himalaya (e.g. -2010, 2013, and 2016) point out the need for a thorough reassessment of long-term time series data of regional rainfall and ambient temperatures in order to trace signatures of a shifting pattern in regional meteorology, if any. Accordingly, here we investigate 100-year-long monthly rainfall and air temperature time series data for a selected grid (28.5°N, 31.25°N; 78.75°E, 81.25°E) covering most parts of Uttarakhand state. We also examined temporal variance in interrelationships among regional meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) and key global climate variability indices using advance statistical methods. Major findings are (i) significant increase in pre-monsoon air temperature over Uttarakhand after 1997, (ii) increasing upward trend in June-July rainfall and its relationship with regional May temperatures (iii) monsoonal rainfall (June, July, August, and September; JJAS) showing covariance with interannual variability in Eurasian snow cover (ESC) extent during the month of March, and (iv) enhancing tendency of anomalous high rainfall events during negative phases of Arctic Oscillation. Obtained results indicate that under warming scenario, JJ

  13. A new Bayesian network-based risk stratification model for prediction of short-term and long-term LVAD mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A; Kanwar, Manreet K; Druzdzel, Marek J; Benza, Raymond L; Murali, Srinivas; Antaki, James F

    2015-01-01

    Existing risk assessment tools for patient selection for left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) such as the Destination Therapy Risk Score and HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) have limited predictive ability. This study aims to overcome the limitations of traditional statistical methods by performing the first application of Bayesian analysis to the comprehensive Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support dataset and comparing it to HMRS. We retrospectively analyzed 8,050 continuous flow LVAD patients and 226 preimplant variables. We then derived Bayesian models for mortality at each of five time end-points postimplant (30 days, 90 days, 6 month, 1 year, and 2 years), achieving accuracies of 95%, 90%, 90%, 83%, and 78%, Kappa values of 0.43, 0.37, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.43, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) of 91%, 82%, 82%, 80%, and 81%, respectively. This was in comparison to the HMRS with an ROC of 57% and 60% at 90 days and 1 year, respectively. Preimplant interventions, such as dialysis, ECMO, and ventilators were major contributing risk markers. Bayesian models have the ability to reliably represent the complex causal relations of multiple variables on clinical outcomes. Their potential to develop a reliable risk stratification tool for use in clinical decision making on LVAD patients encourages further investigation.

  14. Long-term behaviour of GRP pipes

    OpenAIRE

    Faria, H; A Vieira; Reis, J; Marques, A. T.; Guedes, R.M.; Ferreira, A. J. M.

    2005-01-01

    The main objective of the research programme /1/ described is the study of creep and relaxation behaviour of glass-rein forced thermosetting (GRP) pipes, in order to find alternative methods to predict the long-term properties, rendering a considerable reduction of the time needed for testing and assuring, as far as possible, equivalent reliability when compared to the existing methods. Experimental procedures were performed and are presented here, together with discussion of results, as well...

  15. Long-term follow-up and analysis of prediction of mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan BAO

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective To explore the risk factors for mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI in patients with acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI. Methods The patients who were admitted with STEMI to our hospital between July 2008 and November 2012 undergoing PCI during hospitalization were enrolled. Case control study was conducted to observe these patients during the follow-up period for exploring the independent predictors of survival. Results  A total of 3551 consecutive patients were enrolled in this study. These patients were followed up for 5 years with a median followup time of 406[179, 892] days. A total of 106 deaths occurred during the follow-up period. Estimated 5-year survival rate was 88.6% by Kaplan-Meier method. Female, age, diabetes, stroke, dysarteriotony, renal insufficiency, elevation of creatinine kinase isoenzyme MB (CK-MB, left ventricular end diastolic dimension, anemia, anterior myocardial infarction, PCI complications and intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP were independent risk factors for mortality, whereas complete revascularization was associated with decreased risk of mortality. Conclusions Long-term mortality rate of patients with STEMI is higher even after successful PCI. Less PCI complications and early complete revascularization are independent predictors for decreasing mortality rate during follow-up period. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2015.04.05

  16. Markers of sarcopenia quantified by computed tomography predict adverse long-term outcome in patients with resected oesophageal or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamandl, Dietmar; Baltzer, Pascal A.; Ba-Ssalamah, Ahmed [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-guided Therapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center GET-Unit, Vienna (Austria); Paireder, Matthias; Asari, Reza; Schoppmann, Sebastian F. [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Surgery, Upper-GI-Service, Comprehensive Cancer Center GET-Unit, Vienna (Austria)

    2016-05-15

    To assess the impact of sarcopenia and alterations in body composition parameters (BCPs) on survival after surgery for oesophageal and gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (OC). 200 consecutive patients who underwent resection for OC between 2006 and 2013 were selected. Preoperative CTs were used to assess markers of sarcopenia and body composition (total muscle area [TMA], fat-free mass index [FFMi], fat mass index [FMi], subcutaneous, visceral and retrorenal fat [RRF], muscle attenuation). Cox regression was used to assess the primary outcome parameter of overall survival (OS) after surgery. 130 patients (65 %) had sarcopenia based on preoperative CT examinations. Sarcopenic patients showed impaired survival compared to non-sarcopenic individuals (hazard ratio [HR] 1.87, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.15-3.03, p = 0.011). Furthermore, low skeletal muscle attenuation (HR 1.91, 95 % CI 1.12-3.28, p = 0.019) and increased FMi (HR 3.47, 95 % CI 1.27-9.50, p = 0.016) were associated with impaired outcome. In the multivariate analysis, including a composite score (CSS) of those three parameters and clinical variables, only CSS, T-stage and surgical resection margin remained significant predictors of OS. Patients who show signs of sarcopenia and alterations in BCPs on preoperative CT images have impaired long-term outcome after surgery for OC. (orig.)

  17. A numerical approach to predict the long-term creep behaviour and precipitate back-stress evolution of 9-12% chromium steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holzer, I.; Cerjak, H. [Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. for Materials Science and Welding; Kozeschnik, E. [Vienna Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Materials Science and Technology; Vienna Univ. of Technology (Austria). Christian Doppler Lab. ' Early Stages of Precipitation'

    2010-07-01

    The mechanical properties of modern 9-12% Cr steels are significantly influenced by the presence and stability of different precipitate populations. These secondary phases grow, coarsen and, sometimes, dissolve again during heat treatment and service, which leads to a remarkable change in the obstacle effect of these precipitates on dislocation movement. In the present work, the experimentally observed creep rupture strength of a modified 9-12% Cr steel developed in the European COST Group is compared to the calculated maximum obstacle effect (Orowan threshold stress) caused by the precipitates present in the investigated alloy for different heat treatment conditions. It is shown that the differences in creep rupture strength caused by different heat treatments disappear after long time service. This observation is discussed on the basis of the calculated evolution of the precipitate microstructure. The concept of boosting long-term creep rupture strength by maximizing the initial creep strength with optimum quality heat treatment parameters for precipitation strengthening is critically assessed. (orig.)

  18. Glomerular Immune Deposits Are Predictive of Poor Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Adult Biopsy-Proven Minimal Change Disease: A Cohort Study in Korea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Woo Lee

    Full Text Available There has been little published information on risk factors for poor long-term outcome in adult biopsy-proven minimal change disease (MCD.Data from sixty-three adult, biopsy-proven primary MCD patients treated at a tertiary university hospital between 2003 and 2013 were analyzed. Baseline clinical and pathologic factors were assessed for the associations with composite outcome of creatinine doubling, end stage renal disease, or all-cause mortality.During a median (interquartile 5.0 (2.8-5.0 years, the composite outcome occurred in 11.1% (7/63 of patients. The rate of glomerular immune deposits was 23.8% (15/63. Patients with glomerular immune deposits showed a significantly lower urine protein creatinine ratio than those without deposits (P = 0.033. The rate of non-responders was significantly higher in patients with glomerular immune deposits than in those without deposits (P = 0.033. In patients with deposits, 26.7% (4/15 developed the composite outcome, while only 6.3% (3/48 developed the composite outcome among those without deposits (P = 0.049. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, the presence of glomerular immune deposits was the only factor associated with development of the composite outcome (hazard ratio: 2.310, 95% confidence interval: 1.031-98.579, P = 0.047.Glomerular immune deposits were associated with increased risk of a composite outcome in adult MCD patients. The higher rate of non-responders in patients with deposits might be related to the poor outcome. Future study is needed.

  19. Markers of sarcopenia quantified by computed tomography predict adverse long-term outcome in patients with resected oesophageal or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamandl, Dietmar; Paireder, Matthias; Asari, Reza; Baltzer, Pascal A; Schoppmann, Sebastian F; Ba-Ssalamah, Ahmed

    2016-05-01

    To assess the impact of sarcopenia and alterations in body composition parameters (BCPs) on survival after surgery for oesophageal and gastro-oesophageal junction cancer (OC). 200 consecutive patients who underwent resection for OC between 2006 and 2013 were selected. Preoperative CTs were used to assess markers of sarcopenia and body composition (total muscle area [TMA], fat-free mass index [FFMi], fat mass index [FMi], subcutaneous, visceral and retrorenal fat [RRF], muscle attenuation). Cox regression was used to assess the primary outcome parameter of overall survival (OS) after surgery. 130 patients (65%) had sarcopenia based on preoperative CT examinations. Sarcopenic patients showed impaired survival compared to non-sarcopenic individuals (hazard ratio [HR] 1.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-3.03, p = 0.011). Furthermore, low skeletal muscle attenuation (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.12-3.28, p = 0.019) and increased FMi (HR 3.47, 95% CI 1.27-9.50, p = 0.016) were associated with impaired outcome. In the multivariate analysis, including a composite score (CSS) of those three parameters and clinical variables, only CSS, T-stage and surgical resection margin remained significant predictors of OS. Patients who show signs of sarcopenia and alterations in BCPs on preoperative CT images have impaired long-term outcome after surgery for OC. • Sarcopenia is associated with impaired OS after surgery for oesophageal cancer. • Other body composition parameters are also associated with impaired survival. • This influence on survival is independent of established clinical parameters. • Sarcopenia provides a better estimation of cachexia than BMI. • Sarcopenia assessment could be considered in risk/benefit stratification before oesophagectomy.

  20. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­-criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

  1. Analysing long term discursive processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horsbøl, Anders

    What do timescales - the notion that processes take place or can be viewed within a shorter or longer temporal range (Lemke 2005) - mean for the analysis of discourse? What are the methodological consequences of analyzing discourse at different timescales? It may be argued that discourse analysis...... in general has favored either the analysis of short term processes such as interviews, discussions, and lessons, or the analysis of non-processual entities such as (multimodal) texts, arguments, discursive repertoires, and discourses (in a Foucaultian sense). In contrast, analysis of long term processes...... which extend beyond the single interaction, for instance negotiations or planning processes, seems to have played a less important role, with studies such as Iedema 2001 and Wodak 2000 as exceptions. These long term processes, however, are central to the constitution and workings of organizations...

  2. Evoniks's long-term catalyst operating and management experience; Evonik's Langzeit-SCR-Katalysator Betriebs- und Managementerfahrung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, Matthias; Brueggendick, Hermann [Evonik Energy Services GmbH, Essen (Germany). Abt. Umwelttechnik

    2011-07-01

    The exchange of SCR-catalysts is the biggest operating expenditure at the plant component SCR reactor at Evonik STEAG. The longest possible lifetime is therefore desirable. To ensure this, Evonik STEAG has introduced a centralised management catalyst system for the entire power plant fleet. The scope and benefits of this instrument and the operating experience which could be obtained in the last years will be described. (orig.)

  3. Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

    1997-01-01

    Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

  4. Consider long-term care as service alternative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loria, L S

    1987-04-01

    The increasing demand for elderly care services, pressures on inpatient average length of stay and payment levels, and potential financial rewards from providing additional services, makes long-term care look attractive to hospitals. Long-term care, however, is not for every hospital. Before deciding to establish long-term care services, management should examine how the service fits within the hospital's strategic plan. The action plan below provides guidance in evaluating a decision to use hospital facilities for long-term care. Examine how long-term care services fit within the hospital's strategic plan. Study area demographics and competitors to assess the need and supply of long-term care services. Survey the medical staff, consumers and payers to determine attitudes, perceptions and interests regarding long-term care services. Develop a facility plan that identifies areas of excess capacity that can be most easily converted into long-term care with minimal effects on hospital operations. Prepare a financial feasibility analysis of the contribution margin and return on investment attributable to long-term care services. Include an impact analysis on hospital operations. Establish a management task force to develop a detailed implementation plan including assigned individual responsibilities and related timetable. Develop an effective marketing plan designed to generate increased patient market share.

  5. Long-term operational experiences in the preparation of river Elbe water to boiler feedwater with membrane processes; Langzeitbetriebserfahrungen bei der Aufbereitung von Elbewasser zu Kesselspeisewasser mit Membranverfahren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Juergen [OSMO Membrane Systems GmbH, Korntal-Muenchingen (Germany); Batram, Juergen; Portner, Ronny [Aurubis AG, Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-09-01

    In Hamburg/Germany, the Aurubis AG (formerly Norddeutsche Affinerie) operates an industrial power plant to generate electricity and steam. For the past ten years, the annual demand of boiler feedwater (350,000 m{sup 3}) has been obtained with an economical water treatment plant based on membrane processes directly from the river Elbe. The water treatment plant called NAqua built uses roughly pre-filtered river water. The produced water quality corresponds to the requirements of the current VGB-Standard 450 'Feedwater, Boiler Water and Steam Quality for Power Plants/Industrial Plants'. Since August 2002, the water treatment plant has been successfully in operation, and based on the described technique it belongs to the least recently operating plants in Germany. (orig.)

  6. Long-term outcomes of {sup 131}Iodine mIBG therapy in metastatic gastrointestinal pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours: single administration predicts non-responders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mulholland, Nicola; Chakravartty, Riddhika; Devlin, Lindsey; Kalogianni, Eleni; Corcoran, Ben; Vivian, Gillian [King' s College Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, London (United Kingdom)

    2015-12-15

    {sup 131}Iodine (I131)-metaiodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) is a radionuclide-based treatment option for metastatic gastrointestinal-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP NET). This study aimed at identifying prognostic indicators of long-term outcome based on initial evaluation following a first mIBG treatment (7400 MBq) in a patient cohort with such tumours, with a secondary aim of evaluating progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) following mIBG therapy. Retrospective review of the hospital records was performed to identify a cohort of 38 adult patients who underwent {sup 131}Iodine-mIBG therapy over a 9-year period for metastatic GEP NETs and neuroendocrine tumours with an unknown primary. Treatment response was evaluated based on radiological criteria (RECIST1.1), biochemical markers [serum Chromogranin A (CgA)/urinary 5HIAA] and symptomatic response at clinical follow-up, all evaluated at 3-6 months from first mIBG treatment. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) from the first mIBG treatment were recorded. At 3-6 months following a single mIBG therapy, 75 %, 67 %, and 63 % of patients showed either a partial response (PR) or stable disease (SD) on radiological, biochemical, and symptomatic criteria, respectively. Complete response (CR) was not seen in any patient. OS from the date of diagnosis and from the first therapy was 8 years +/-1.1 (95 % CI 5.7 to 10.2 years) and 4 years+/-0.69 (95 % CI 2.6-5.3 years), respectively. Twenty-nine percent of patients were alive at 10 years. Significant survival advantage was seen in patients with SD/PR as compared to those who had progressive disease (PD) for each of these three criteria. Biochemical, radiological (RECIST 1.1) and symptomatic assessment of disease status at 3 to 6 months after first I131-mIBG therapy stratifies patients with a poor prognosis. This can be used to identify patients who may benefit from alternative strategies of treatment. (orig.)

  7. A technique for long term continent gastrostomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locker, D L; Foster, J E; Craun, M L; Torma, M J

    1985-01-01

    The use of the continent gastrostomy described herein offers several advantages: 1, the elimination of an indwelling catheter; 2, prevention of soiling at skin level; 3, long term access to the normal gastrointestinal track for alimentation without fear of tube erosion; 4, little compromise to gastric volume, and 5, ease of stoma care. We recommend this operation in instances when long term tube feedings are indicated either because of damage to the central nervous system or as a palliative treatment for patients with higher obstructing gastrointestinal malignant disease. The procedure may also be useful for patients in whom esophagogastric continuity has been interrupted (surgically or traumatically) and in whom reconstruction of the gastrointestinal tract would not seem feasible within a three to six month interval.

  8. DOE-NE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program and EPRI Long-Term Operations Program – Joint Research and Development Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Don Williams

    2012-04-01

    Nuclear power has contributed almost 20% of the total amount of electricity generated in the United States over the past two decades. High capacity factors and low operating costs make nuclear power plants (NPPs) some of the most economical power generators available. Further, nuclear power remains the single largest contributor (nearly 70%) of non-greenhouse gas-emitting electric power generation in the United States. Even when major refurbishments are performed to extend operating life, these plants continue to represent cost-effective, low-carbon assets to the nation's electrical generation capability.

  9. Human injury probability during water entry of free-fall lifeboats: Operational criteria based on long-term simulations using hindcast data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fouques, S.; Sauder, T.; Reinholdtsen, S.A.; Dam, E. van; Uittenbogaard, J.

    2014-01-01

    The paper addresses the safety of occupants in free-fall lifeboats launched from turret-moored floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels. It presents a methodology for assessing operational limits with respect to acceleration-induced loads experienced by the passengers during water

  10. Long-term operation of a multi-channel cosmic muon system based on scintillation counters with MRS APD light readout

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akindinov, A. [Institute for Theoretical and Experimental Physics (ITEP), B. Cheremushkinskaya 25, Moscow 117218 (Russian Federation)], E-mail: Alexander.Akindinov@cern.ch; Golovin, V. [Center of Perspective Technologies and Apparatus (CPTA), Preobrazhenskaya pl. 6/8, Moscow 107076 (Russian Federation); Grigoriev, E. [University of Geneva, CMU, rue Michel-Servet 1, Geneve 4, 1211 (Switzerland); Grishuk, Yu. [Institute for Theoretical and Experimental Physics (ITEP), B. Cheremushkinskaya 25, Moscow 117218 (Russian Federation); Kuleshov, S. [Institute for Theoretical and Experimental Physics (ITEP), B. Cheremushkinskaya 25, Moscow 117218 (Russian Federation); Departamento de Fisica y Centro de Estudios Subatomicos, Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria, Castilla 110-V, Valparaiso (Chile); Mal' kevich, D.; Martemiyanov, A.; Nedosekin, A.; Ryabinin, M.; Voloshin, K. [Institute for Theoretical and Experimental Physics (ITEP), B. Cheremushkinskaya 25, Moscow 117218 (Russian Federation)

    2009-10-21

    A Cosmic Ray Test Facility (CRTF) is the first large-scale implementation of a scintillation triggering system based on a new technique, scintillation tile with MRS APD light readout (START). In START, the scintillation light is collected and transported by WLS optical fibers, while light detection is performed by pairs of avalanche photodiodes with the Metal-Resistor-Semiconductor structure (MRS APD) operated in the Geiger mode. START delivers 100% efficiency of cosmic muon detection, while its intrinsic noise level is less than 10{sup -2}Hz. CRTF, consisting of 160 START channels, has been continuously operated by the ALICE TOF collaboration for more than 25 000 h, and has demonstrated a high level of stability. Fewer than 10% of MRS APDs had to be replaced during this period.

  11. Long-term operation of a multi-channel cosmic muon system based on scintillation counters with MRS APD light readout

    CERN Document Server

    Akindinov, A.; Grigoriev, E.; Grishuk, Yu.; Kuleshov, S.; Mal'kevich, D.; Martemiyanov, A.; Nedosekin, A.; Ryabinin, M.; Voloshin, K.

    2009-01-01

    A Cosmic Ray Test Facility (CRTF) is the first large-scale implementation of a scintillation triggering system based on a new scintillation technique known as START. In START, the scintillation light is collected and transported by WLS optical fibers, while light detection is performed by pairs of avalanche photodiodes with the Metal-Resistor-Semiconductor structure operated in the Geiger mode (MRS APD). START delivers 100% efficiency of cosmic muon detection, while its intrinsic noise level is less than 10^{-2} Hz. CRTF, consisting of 160 START channels, has been continuously operated by the ALICE TOF collaboration for more than 25 000 hours, and has demonstrated a high level of stability. Fewer than 10% of MRS APDs had to be replaced during this period.

  12. Long-term operation of microbial electrosynthesis cell reducing CO2 to multi-carbon chemicals with a mixed culture avoiding methanogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajracharya, Suman; Yuliasni, Rustiana; Vanbroekhoven, Karolien; Buisman, Cees J N; Strik, David P B T B; Pant, Deepak

    2017-02-01

    In microbial electrosynthesis (MES), CO2 can be reduced preferably to multi-carbon chemicals by a biocathode-based process which uses electrochemically active bacteria as catalysts. A mixed anaerobic consortium from biological origin typically produces methane from CO2 reduction which circumvents production of multi-carbon compounds. This study aimed to develop a stable and robust CO2 reducing biocathode from a mixed culture inoculum avoiding the methane generation. An effective approach was demonstrated based on (i) an enrichment procedure involving inoculum pre-treatment and several culture transfers in H2:CO2 media, (ii) a transfer from heterotrophic to autotrophic growth and (iii) a sequential batch operation. Biomass growth and gradual acclimation to CO2 electro-reduction accomplished a maximum acetate production rate of 400mgLcatholyte(-1)d(-1) at -1V (vs. Ag/AgCl). Methane was never detected in more than 300days of operation. Accumulation of acetate up to 7-10gL(-1) was repeatedly attained by supplying (80:20) CO2:N2 mixture at -0.9 to -1V (vs. Ag/AgCl). In addition, ethanol and butyrate were also produced from CO2 reduction. Thus, a robust CO2 reducing biocathode can be developed from a mixed culture avoiding methane generation by adopting the specific culture enrichment and operation procedures without the direct addition of chemical inhibitor.

  13. The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (M S=7) by the ``criterion of activity in quiescence''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng-Jian, Guo; Bao-Yan, Qin

    2000-07-01

    Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M S≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M S≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M S=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M S=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M S=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The windows of “activity in quiescence” identified statistically by us are 1940 1945, 1958 1961 and 1979 1986. Using the “criterion of activity in quiescence” to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M S=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.

  14. Prediction of long-term metabolic effects of olanzapine and risperidone treatment from baseline body mass index in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobo, William Victor; Bonaccorso, Stefania; Jayathilake, Karuna; Meltzer, Herbert Yale

    2011-09-30

    Baseline body mass index (BMI), baseline BMI status (normal, overweight, obese) and early (1 month) BMI increases were tested as predictors of 6- and 12-month increases in glucose and lipid measures in 82 olanzapine (OLZ)- and 78 risperidone (RIS)-treated patients with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or bipolar disorder who participated in a 12-month randomized, prospective metabolic effects study. Baseline BMI predicted greater fasting glucose and HgbA1c levels at 12 months for both treatments. Early BMI change predicted fasting glucose levels at 6 months, but not HgbA1c or BMI, at either time point. For patients who received no concomitant mood stabilizers, early BMI change predicted 12 month HgbA1c values in the OLZ group, and 6- (but not 12-) month fasting glucose and HgbA1c values in the RIS group. Neither baseline BMI nor early BMI change consistently predicted increases in lipids with either drug. OLZ-treated patients with normal baseline BMI had greater increases in total cholesterol, triglycerides, and non-HDL-cholesterol than those who were overweight or obese. In conclusion, higher baseline BMI predicted adverse glycemic changes after 12 months with OLZ and RIS. Individuals with normal baseline BMI may be most susceptible to OLZ-induced hyperlipidosis. Frequency of metabolic screening should be independent of baseline BMI or rapid increases in BMI.

  15. An analysis of the operational GFS simplified Arakawa Schubert parameterization within a WRF framework: A Hurricane Sandy (2012) long-term track forecast perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassill, Nick P.

    2015-01-01

    Sandy (2012) is known as an incredibly destructive storm and one defined meteorologically by its large size, and its significant forecast track spreads among various operational models roughly 1 week before landfall. While the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model accurately depicted a northeastern United States landfall, the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model consistently forecast a track toward the North Atlantic Ocean. Using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model framework, Bassill suggested that these differences were primarily a function of differences between the two models' cumulus parameterization (CP). This study also uses a WRF model framework to examine the simplified Arakawa Schubert CP used in the GFS model. It is found that increasing the deep convective entrainment coefficient produces more realistic forecast tracks for forecasts initialized roughly 1 week before landfall. This occurs through a reorientation of the precipitation (and associated latent heating) around Sandy during a critical time period in which it was interacting with a series of upper troughs to its west and northwest. Reorienting the latent heating reshapes the upper tropospheric steering pattern toward the one that is more negatively tilted and consistent with observations.

  16. [Long-term results of mobilization by bone resection in patients with post-traumatic total stiffness and ankylosis of the elbow. Study and results of 39 operations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baciu, C C; Dobre, I; Mîrsu, F; Duma, A

    1990-01-01

    Thirty patients with post-traumatic stiffness and ankylosis of the elbow were treated operatively at the Colentina Clinical Hospital, from 1970-1986. They were treated by 39 surgical mobilisation using Ollier technique. In eleven patients with a persisting functional amplitude of the prono-supination, the resections have been effected on the distal end of the humerus and on the olecranon, and in nineteen with a limited prono-supination too, it was added a resection of the radial head. The mobilisations were realised without interposition. At follow-up the patients were evaluated after 1 to 8 years, using the pre- and post- operative Rocher's indices and the Kerboull's classification. The flexion-extension was improved by 55 per cent, the pronation by 55.3 per cent and the supination also with 55.3 per cent. The results plead for the maintaining of this type of surgical treatment for the treatment of post-traumatic stiffnesses and ankyloses of the elbow, though there are not complete satisfactory, especially for the joint stability.

  17. Research Opportunities in Corrosion Science for Long-Term Prediction of Materials Performance: A Report of the DOE Workshop on “Corrosion Issues of Relevance to the Yucca Mountain Waste Repository”.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payer, Joe H. [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States); Scully, John R. [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)

    2003-07-29

    The report summarizes the findings of a U.S. Department of Energy workshop on “Corrosion Issues of Relevance to the Yucca Mountain Waste Repository”. The workshop was held on July 29-30, 2003 in Bethesda, MD, and was co-sponsored by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences and Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. The workshop focus was corrosion science relevant to long-term prediction of materials performance in hostile environments, with special focus on relevance to the permanent disposal of nuclear waste at the Yucca Mountain Repository. The culmination of the workshop is this report that identifies both generic and Yucca Mountain Project-specific research opportunities in basic and applied topic areas. The research opportunities would be realized well after the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s initial construction-authorization licensing process. At the workshop, twenty-three invited scientists deliberated on basic and applied science opportunities in corrosion science relevant to long-term prediction of damage accumulation by corrosive processes that affect materials performance.

  18. Exhaust Steam Use Cogeneration System at Ikeshima Coal Mine. The Result of Its Long Term Operation; Ikeshima tanko no hainetsu riyo kojenereshon sisutemu nochoki unten jisseki

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murakami, Masahide. [Matsushima Coal Mining Corp., Nagasaki (Japan)

    1999-03-20

    Ikeshima Coal Mine of Matsushima Coal Mining Co., Ltd. is an undersea coal mine which established in the isolated island in the ocean. It is one of the two left coal mines in Japan. Ikeshima has started its coal production in 1959 and it has planned [D-Plant] to secure electricity for the power and water source for living and the industry. The plant was constructed in 1967. The capacity of the p;ant is 8,600kW electricity generation and 2,650 t/day evaporation and concentration multi type sea water to flesh water. For 32 years, [D-Plant] has kept generating electricity and supplying water, which is indispensable for coal mine operation and people who live in the island. (author)

  19. From Hype to an Operational Tool: Efforts to Establish a Long-Term Monitoring Protocol of Alluvial Sandbars using 'Structure-from-Motion' Photogrammetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, R.; Buscombe, D.; Grams, P. E.; Wheaton, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Despite recent advances in the use of 'Structure-from-Motion' (SfM) photogrammetry to accurately map landforms, its utility for reliably detecting and monitoring geomorphic change from repeat surveys remains underexplored in fluvial environments. It is unclear how the combination of various image acquisition platforms and techniques, survey scales, vegetation cover, and terrain complexities translate into accuracy and precision metrics for SfM-based construction of digital elevation models (DEMs) of fluvial landforms. Although unmanned aerial vehicles offer the potential to rapidly image large areas, they can be relatively costly, require skilled operators, are vulnerable in adverse weather conditions, and often rely on GPS-positioning to improve their stability. This research details image acquisition techniques for an underrepresented SfM platform: the pole-mounted camera. We highlight image acquisition and post-processing limitations of the SfM method for alluvial sandbars (10s to 100s m2) located in Marble and Grand Canyons in a remote, fluvial landscape with limited field access, strong light gradients, highly variable surface texture and limited ground control. We recommend a pole-based SfM protocol and evaluate it by comparing SfM-derived DEMs against concurrent, total station surveys and TLS derived DEMs. Error models of the sandbar surfaces are developed for a variety of surface characteristics (e.g., bare sand, steep slopes, and areas of shadow). The Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) Software is used to compare SfM DEMs from before and after the 2014 high flow release from Glen Canyon Dam. Complementing existing total-station based sandbar surveys with potentially more efficient and cost-effective SfM methods will contribute to the understanding of morphodynamic responses of sandbars to high flow releases from Glen Canyon Dam. In addition, the development and implementation of a SfM-based operational protocol for monitoring geomorphic change will provide

  20. An operational concept for long-term cinemicrography of cells in mono- and co-culture under highly controlled conditions--the SlideObserver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billecke, Nils; Raschzok, Nathanael; Rohn, Susanne; Morgul, Mehmet H; Schwartlander, Ruth; Mogl, Martina; Wollersheim, Sonja; Schmitt, Katharina R; Sauer, Igor M

    2012-05-31

    Cell morphology, proliferation and motility, as well as mono- and heterotypic cell-to-cell interactions, are of increasing interest for in vitro experiments. However, tightly controlling culture conditions whilst simultaneously monitoring the same set of cells is complicated. Moreover, video-microscopy of distinct cells or areas of cells over a prolonged period of time represents a technical challenge. The SlideObserver was designed for cinemicrography of cells in co-and monoculture. The core elements of the system are the SlideReactors, miniaturised hollow fibre-based bioreactors operated in closed perfusion loops. Within the SlideReactors, cells can be cultured under adaptable conditions as well as in direct- and indirect co-culture. The independent perfusion loops enable controlled variation of parameters such as medium, pH, and oxygenation. A combined automated microscope stage and camera set-up allows for micrograph acquisition of multiple user-defined regions of interest within the bioreactor units. For proof of concept, primary cells (HUVEC, human hepatocytes) and cell lines (HuH7, THP-1) were cultured under stable and varying culture conditions, as well as in mono- and co-culture. The operational system enabled non-stop imaging and automated control of process parameters as well as elective manipulation of either reactor. As opposed to non-perfused culture systems or comparable devices for cinemicrographic analysis, the SlideObserver allows simultaneous morphological monitoring of an entire culture of cells in multiple bioreactors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Using the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) and Childhood Autism Rating Scales (CARS) to Predict Long Term Outcomes in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nah, Yong-Hwee; Young, Robyn L.; Brewer, Neil

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluated the predictive validity of the Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC; Young, Autism detection in early childhood: ADEC. Australian Council of Educational Research, Camberwell, VIC 2007) and a well-established screening tool, the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS; Schopler et al. The childhood autism rating scale (CARS).…

  2. Development of the international status of science and technology concerning methods and tools for operational and long-term safety cases; Weiterentwicklung des internationalen Stands von Wissenschaft und Technik zu Methoden und Werkzeugen fuer Betriebs- und Langzeitsicherheitsnachweise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seher, Holger; Beuth, Thomas; Bracke, Guido; Kock, Ingo; Mayer, Kim-Marisa; Moog, Helge C.; Uhlmann, Stephan; Weyand, Torben (eds.)

    2016-09-15

    The project ''development of the international status of science and technology concerning methods and tools for operational and long-term safety cases'' covers the following key aspects: global aspects of the methodology for scenario assumption for the operational phase following closure, potential analysis of the derives safety cases for the project Gorleben, determination of the solid phase composition of high-level radioactive wastes using geochemical modeling calculations, search for an adequate approach for the calculation of density and viscosity of saline solutions for the future use in GRS computer codes, international approaches for an integral analysis for the host rocks clay and granite in relation to the safety requirements of BMUB.

  3. Long term stability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundur, P.; Gao, B. [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

  4. Metastatic renal cell carcinoma, with a radiographically occult primary tumor, presenting in the operative site of a thoracic meningioma: long-term follow-up: Case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heary, Robert F; Agarwal, Nitin; Barrese, James C; Barry, Maureen T; Baisre, Ada

    2014-10-01

    Lesions metastatic to the site of a meningioma resection from a different primary tumor are rare. Metastasis of a tumor without a known primary tumor is also rare. Metastasis of a renal cell carcinoma, without an identifiable primary tumor, to the bed of a meningioma resection has not been previously reported. The authors describe the case of a 54-year-old man who presented with decreased sensory and motor function in the lower extremities. He underwent T3-5 laminectomies and gross-total removal of an intradural, extramedullary meningioma. The postoperative course was uneventful, and the patient regained full neurological function. After a 3-year period, he developed progressive upper thoracic pain and lower-extremity paresthesias. Imaging studies showed an epidural mass at the T2-4 levels and what appeared to be blastic involvement of the T2-4 vertebrae. A metastatic workup was negative. Emergency revision laminectomies yielded a fibrous, nonvascular mass. Neuropathology was consistent with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. After 6 months, the patient's symptoms of pain and paresthesias recurred. Repeat excision, with decompression of the spinal cord, revealed tumor cells morphologically and immunophenotypically similar to those obtained from the prior surgery. Cytogenetic analysis confirmed the presence of metastatic renal cell carcinoma. A novel case of an epidural metastatic renal cell carcinoma, of unknown primary origin, in the same operative bed of a previously resected intradural, extramedullary meningioma of the thoracic spine is reported.

  5. To what extent do single symptoms from a depression rating scale predict risk of long-term sickness absence among employees who are free of clinical depression?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rugulies, R; Hjarsbech, PU; Aust, B

    2013-01-01

    symptoms, three predicted LTSA after adjustment for covariates: "felt low in spirits and sad" (HR = 1.41, 95 % CI = 1.05-1.89), "felt lacking in energy and strength" (HR = 1.33, 95 % CI = 1.08-1.64), and "had trouble sleeping at night" (HR = 1.38, 95 % CI = 1.09-1.74). CONCLUSION: Among female eldercare...... workers free of clinical depression, feelings of low spirits and sadness, feelings of lack of energy and strength, and sleep disturbances predict risk of LTSA. Interventions that decrease the prevalence of these symptoms might contribute to a reduction in LTSA in this population....

  6. Predicting long-term response to strong opioids in patients with low back pain: findings from a randomized, controlled trial of transdermal fentanyl and morphine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slappendel Robert

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Some patients with long-standing low back pain will benefit from treatment with strong opioids. However, it would be helpful to predict which patients will have a good response. A fixed-term opioid trial has been recommended, but there is little evidence to suggest how long this trial should be. We assessed data from a large-scale randomized comparison of transdermal fentanyl (TDF and sustained-release oral morphine (slow-release morphine; SRM to determine characteristics of treatment responders. Methods This was a secondary analysis of a previously published 13-month randomized trial involving 680 patients with long-standing low back pain (median age 52 years, 61% women, median duration of back pain 87 months. Pain relief was recorded using visual analogue scales (VAS. Treatment response was defined as pain relief of at least 30% from baseline to any point during the trial. We used a step-wise logistic regression to identify variables that might predict response to treatment. Covariates included treatment group, sex, age, duration of pain, presence of neuropathic pain, baseline pain scores, educational/employment status, use of high doses of opioids, and social functioning (SF-36 scores. Results Over half the patients in both groups (n = 370; 54% TDF, 55% SRM were treatment responders. There were no differences between the TDF and SRM responders in terms of age, sex, type or duration of pain between responders and non-responders. The difference in response to treatment between responders and non-responders could be detected at 3 weeks. Lack of response after 1 month had a stronger negative predictive value (i.e., ability to detect non-responders than the presence of response after 1 month. The most influential factors for predicting a response were employment status (χ2 = 11.06, p = 0.0259 and use of high doses of opioids (χ2 = 3.04, p = 0.0811. Conclusion No clear pattern of baseline pain (type or severity or patient

  7. Long-term modelling of fly ash and radionuclide emissions as well as deposition fluxes due to the operation of large oil shale-fired power plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaasma, Taavi; Kaasik, Marko; Loosaar, Jüri; Kiisk, Madis; Tkaczyk, Alan H

    2017-09-11

    Two of the world's largest oil shale-fired power plants (PPs) in Estonia have been operational over 40 years, emitting various pollutants, such as fly ash, SOx, NOx, heavy metals, volatile organic compounds as well as radionuclides to the environment. The emissions from these PPs have varied significantly during this period, with the maximum during the 1970s and 1980s. The oil shale burned in the PPs contains naturally occurring radionuclides from the (238)U and (232)Th decay series as well as (40)K. These radionuclides become enriched in fly ash fractions (up to 10 times), especially in the fine fly ash escaping the purification system. Using a validated Gaussian-plume model, atmospheric dispersion modelling was carried out to determine the quantity and a real magnitude of fly ash and radionuclide deposition fluxes during different decades. The maximum deposition fluxes of volatile radionuclides ((210)Pb and (210)Po) were around 70 mBq m(-2) d(-1) nearby the PPs during 1970s and 1980s. Due to the reduction of burned oil shale and significant renovations done on the PPs, the deposition fluxes were reduced to 10 mBq m(-2) d(-1) in the 2000s and down to 1.5 mBq m(-2) d(-1) in 2015. The maximum deposition occurs within couple of kilometers of the PPs, but the impacted area extends to over 50 km from the sources. For many radionuclides, including (210)Po, the PPs have been larger contributors of radionuclides to the environment via atmospheric pathway than natural sources. This is the first time that the emissions and deposition fluxes of radionuclides from the PPs have been quantified, providing the information about their radionuclide deposition load on the surrounding environment during various time periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  9. Development of antibiotic resistance genes in microbial communities during long-term operation of anaerobic reactors in the treatment of pharmaceutical wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Sevcan; Ince, Bahar; Ince, Orhan

    2015-10-15

    Biological treatment processes offer the ideal conditions in which a high diversity of microorganisms can grow and develop. The wastewater produced during these processes is contaminated with antibiotics and, as such, they provide the ideal setting for the acquisition and proliferation of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). This research investigated the occurrence and variation in the ARGs found during the one-year operation of the anaerobic sequencing batch reactors (SBRs) used to treat pharmaceutical wastewater that contained combinations of sulfamethoxazole-tetracycline-erythromycin (STE) and sulfamethoxazole-tetracycline (ST). The existence of eighteen ARGs encoding resistance to sulfamethoxazole (sul1, sul2, sul3), erythromycin (ermA, ermF, ermB, msrA, ereA), tetracycline (tetA, tetB, tetC, tetD, tetE, tetM, tetS, tetQ, tetW, tetX) and class Ι integron gene (intΙ 1) in the STE and ST reactors was investigated by quantitative real-time PCR. Due to the limited availability of primers to detect ARGs, Illumina sequencing was also performed on the sludge and effluent of the STE and ST reactors. Although there was good reactor performance in the SBRs, which corresponds to min 80% COD removal efficiency, tetA, tetB, sul1, sul2 and ermB genes were among those ARGs detected in the effluent from STE and ST reactors. A comparison of the ARGs acquired from the STE and ST reactors revealed that the effluent from the STE reactor had a higher number of ARGs than that from the ST reactor; this could be due to the synergistic effects of erythromycin. According to the expression of genes results, microorganisms achieve tetracycline and erythromycin resistance through a combination of three mechanisms: efflux pumping protein, modification of the antibiotic target and modifying enzymes. There was also a significant association between the presence of the class 1 integron and sulfamethoxazole resistance genes.

  10. 交流特高压避雷器的带电考核与工程投运%Long-term Live Test and the Engineering Operation of the UHV MOA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨迎建; 王保山; 熊易; 汤霖; 左中秋

    2011-01-01

    The successful development of the 1 000 kV AC ultra high voltage porcelain-housed metal oxide surge arrester (UHV MOA) is one of the most important achievements in arrester area. Before the completion of the China UHV AC demonstration project, UHV MOA has not been used for long-term live operation at home and abroad. The requirements of performance, the test methods, as well as the operation parameters of the UHV MOA are different from the 750 kV and below MOA's, for its 4-columns parallel structure and the height of over 10 meters. The long-term live test is an important test, which verifies whether the MOA design meet all the requirements in specifications. This paper details the long-term live test and the engineering operation of the UHV MOA in UHV AC demonstration project, raised some problems and put forward some reasonable suggestions.%1 000 kV交流特高压瓷套型金属氧化物避雷器(1 000 kV AC ultra high voltage porcelain-housed metal oxide surge arrester,UHV MOA)是近几年国内避雷器研究最重要的成果,在中国特高压示范工程之前,国内外尚无特高压避雷器长期带电运行的先例.由于其采用四柱电阻片并联结构且其总高达十几米,其性能要求、试验方法以及运行参数与传统750 kV及以下MOA有很大不同.带电考核是为验证产品设计能否满足技术规范要求长期稳定运行的重要试验.笔者全面介绍了国家电网1 000kV交流特高压示范工程用UHV MOA带电考核以及工程投运中的运行情况以及存在的问题,在分析问题的基础上提出了一些合理化建议.

  11. Genetic Polymorphisms of IL-17F and TRAF3IP2 Could Be Predictive Factors of the Long-Term Effect of Infliximab against Crohn’s Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shigetoshi Urabe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. We aimed to identify certain genes related to response to infliximab (IFX and biomarkers to predict the IFX effect for Japanese Crohn’s disease (CD patients by performing an association study of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in candidate genes in the interleukin- (IL- 17 signaling pathway with response to IFX after 1 year of treatment. Methods. A total of 103 patients were divided into two groups, responders and nonresponders. Twenty-eight tag SNPs in 5 genes were genotyped. The frequencies of alleles and genotypes of each SNP were compared between responders and nonresponders in three different inheritance models. A genetic test was performed using a combination of the associated SNPs as biomarkers. Results. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the four variable factors, concomitant use of immunomodulators, penetrating disease, a G/G genotype of rs766748 in IL-17F, and a C/C or C/A genotype of rs1883136 in TRAF3IP2, independently contributed to response to IFX after 1 year of treatment. Genetic test using the polymorphisms of these genes perfectly predicted the responder and nonresponder CD patients with both concomitant use of immunomodulators and penetrating disease. Conclusion. IL17F and TRAF3IP2 are one of IFX-related genes, useful as biomarkers of IFX response, and may be target molecules for new therapeutic drugs.

  12. Adjuvanted H5N1 vaccine induces early CD4+ T cell response that predicts long-term persistence of protective antibody levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galli, Grazia; Medini, Duccio; Borgogni, Erica; Zedda, Luisanna; Bardelli, Monia; Malzone, Carmine; Nuti, Sandra; Tavarini, Simona; Sammicheli, Chiara; Hilbert, Anne K; Brauer, Volker; Banzhoff, Angelika; Rappuoli, Rino; Del Giudice, Giuseppe; Castellino, Flora

    2009-03-10

    Immune responses to vaccination are tested in clinical trials. This process usually requires years especially when immune memory and persistence are analyzed. Markers able to quickly predict the immune response would be very useful, particularly when dealing with emerging diseases that require a rapid response, such as avian influenza. To address this question we vaccinated healthy adults at days 1, 22, and 202 with plain or MF59-adjuvanted H5N1 subunit vaccines and tested both cell-mediated and antibody responses up to day 382. Only the MF59-H5N1 vaccine induced high titers of neutralizing antibodies, a large pool of memory H5N1-specific B lymphocytes, and H5-CD4(+) T cells broadly reactive with drifted H5. The CD4(+) response was dominated by IL-2(+) IFN-gamma(-) IL-13(-) T cells. Remarkably, a 3-fold increase in the frequency of virus-specific total CD4(+) T cells, measurable after 1 dose, accurately predicted the rise of neutralizing antibodies after booster immunization and their maintenance 6 months later. We suggest that CD4(+) T cell priming might be used as an early predictor of the immunogenicity of prepandemic vaccines.

  13. Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

    This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

  14. Developing a Long-Term Forest Gap Model to Predict the Behavior of California Pines, Oaks, and Cedars Under Climate Change and Other Disturbance Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. L.; Moran, E.

    2015-12-01

    Many predictions about how trees will respond to climate change have been made, but these often rely on extrapolating into the future one of two extremes: purely correlative factors like climate, or purely physiological factors unique to a particular species or plant functional group. We are working towards a model that combines both phenotypic and genotypic traits to better predict responses of trees to climate change. We have worked to parameterize a neighborhood dynamics, individual tree forest-gap model called SORTIE-ND, using open data from both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) datasets in California and 30-yr old permanent plots established by the USGS. We generated individual species factors including stage-specific mortality and growth rates, and species-specific allometric equations for ten species, including Abies concolor, A. magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, Pinus contorta, P. jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, P. monticola, P. ponderosa, and the two hardwoods Quercus chrysolepis and Q. kelloggii. During this process, we also developed two R packages to aid in parameter development for SORTIE-ND in other ecological systems. MakeMyForests is an R package that parses FIA datasets and calculates parameters based on the state averages of growth, light, and allometric parameters. disperseR is an R package that uses extensive plot data, with individual tree, sapling, and seedling measurements, to calculate finely tuned mortality and growth parameters for SORTIE-ND. Both are freely available on GitHub, and future updates will be available on CRAN. To validate the model, we withheld several plots from the 30-yr USGS data while calculating parameters. We tested for differences between the actual withheld data and the simulated forest data, in basal area, seedling density, seed dispersal, and species composition. The similarity of our model to the real system suggests that the model parameters we generated with our R packages accurately represent

  15. Long-term policy on gas composition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verhagen, M.J.M.

    2012-03-13

    This letter sets out the policy of the Dutch cabinet on the long-term change to the composition of low calorific gas that is distributed via the public gas grid. The title of a separate attachment to this letter is 'The composition of low calorific gas in the more distant future and the requirements for gas appliances covered by the Gas Appliances Directive'. The attachment sets out the composition of low calorific gas as network operators can distribute it via the public gas grid from 2021 (or from a later date). This relates to the changes in the 'exit specification' of the gas.

  16. Long-term space flights - personal impressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, V. V.

    During a final 4-month stage of a 1-year space flight of cosmonauts Titov and Manarov, a physician, Valery Polyakov was included on a crew for the purpose of evaluating their health, correcting physical status to prepare for the spacecraft reentry and landing operations. The complex program of scientific investigations and experiments performed by the physician included an evaluation of adaptation reactions of the human body at different stages of space mission using clinicophysiological and biochemical methods; testing of alternative regimes of exercise and new countermeasures to prevent an unfavourable effect of long-term weightlessness.

  17. Early stage visual-orthographic processes predict long-term retention of word form and meaning: a visual encoding training study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Fan; Rickles, Ben; Vu, Marianne; Zhu, Ziheng; Chan, Derek Ho Lung; Harris, Lindsay N; Stafura, Joseph; Xu, Yi; Perfetti, Charles A

    2013-07-01

    Adult learners of Chinese learned new characters through writing, visual chunking or reading-only. Following training, ERPs were recorded during character recognition tasks, first shortly after the training and then three months later. We hypothesized that the character training effects would be seen in ERP components associated with word recognition and episodic memory. Results confirmed a larger N170 for visual chunking training than other training and a larger P600 for learned characters than novel characters. Another result was a training effect on the amplitude of the P100, which was greater following writing training than other training, suggesting that writing training temporarily lead to increased visual attention to the orthographic forms. Furthermore, P100 amplitude at the first post-test was positively correlated with character recall 3 months later. Thus the marker of early visual attention (P100) was predictive of retention of orthographic knowledge acquired in training.

  18. Fasting glucose, fasting insulin, and insulin resistance in the prediction of myocardial infarction and mortality at long-term follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, M. L.; Pareek, M.; Leosdottir, M.

    2015-01-01

    using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and likelihood-ratio testing. Follow-up time from inclusion until event (first MI or death) or censoring (emigration or last follow-up date (....1-48.3] years, whereas median [IQR] HOMA-IR was 0.9 [0.4-1.4]. Over a median follow-up time of 20 years, 1448 events occurred (11.3 per 1000 person-years). The simple prediction model, i.e. the model with traditional CV risk factors only, included age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total...... and HOMA-IR (chi2 = 6.07, p = 0.01), and FPI and HOMA-IR (chi2 = 13.15, p up in subjects without CVD and...

  19. Fasting glucose, fasting insulin, and insulin resistance in the prediction of myocardial infarction and mortality at long-term follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, M. L.; Pareek, M.; Leosdottir, M.

    2015-01-01

    using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and likelihood-ratio testing. Follow-up time from inclusion until event (first MI or death) or censoring (emigration or last follow-up date (....1-48.3] years, whereas median [IQR] HOMA-IR was 0.9 [0.4-1.4]. Over a median follow-up time of 20 years, 1448 events occurred (11.3 per 1000 person-years). The simple prediction model, i.e. the model with traditional CV risk factors only, included age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total...... and HOMA-IR (chi2 = 6.07, p = 0.01), and FPI and HOMA-IR (chi2 = 13.15, p up in subjects without CVD and...

  20. Experimental Researches on Long-Term Strength of Granite Gneiss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to confirm the long-term strength of rock materials for the purpose of evaluating the long-term stability of rock engineering. In this study, a series of triaxial creep tests were conducted on granite gneiss under different pore pressures. Based on the test data, we proposed two new quantitative methods, tangent method and intersection method, to confirm the long-term strength of rock. Meanwhile, the isochronous stress-strain curve method was adopted to make sure of the accuracy and operability of the two new methods. It is concluded that the new methods are suitable for the study of the long-term strength of rock. The effect of pore pressure on the long-term strength of rock in triaxial creep tests is also discussed.

  1. Long-term Caspian Sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. L.; Pekker, T.; Wilson, C. R.; Tapley, B. D.; Kostianoy, A. G.; Cretaux, J.-F.; Safarov, E. S.

    2017-07-01

    Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model-predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015 and show that PER (P-E + R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop ( -6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of +12.38 and -6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.

  2. A long-term three dimensional liver co-culture system for improved prediction of clinically relevant drug-induced hepatotoxicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kostadinova, Radina; Boess, Franziska [Non-Clinical Safety, Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Grenzacherstrasse 124, Building 73 / Room 117b, 4070 Basel (Switzerland); Applegate, Dawn [RegeneMed, 9855 Towne Centre Drive Suite 200, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States); Suter, Laura; Weiser, Thomas; Singer, Thomas [Non-Clinical Safety, Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Grenzacherstrasse 124, Building 73 / Room 117b, 4070 Basel (Switzerland); Naughton, Brian [RegeneMed, 9855 Towne Centre Drive Suite 200, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States); Roth, Adrian, E-mail: adrian_b.roth@roche.com [Non-Clinical Safety, Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Grenzacherstrasse 124, Building 73 / Room 117b, 4070 Basel (Switzerland)

    2013-04-01

    Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is the major cause for liver failure and post-marketing drug withdrawals. Due to species-specific differences in hepatocellular function, animal experiments to assess potential liabilities of drug candidates can predict hepatotoxicity in humans only to a certain extent. In addition to animal experimentation, primary hepatocytes from rat or human are widely used for pre-clinical safety assessment. However, as many toxic responses in vivo are mediated by a complex interplay among different cell types and often require chronic drug exposures, the predictive performance of hepatocytes is very limited. Here, we established and characterized human and rat in vitro three-dimensional (3D) liver co-culture systems containing primary parenchymal and non-parenchymal hepatic cells. Our data demonstrate that cells cultured on a 3D scaffold have a preserved composition of hepatocytes, stellate, Kupffer and endothelial cells and maintain liver function for up to 3 months, as measured by the production of albumin, fibrinogen, transferrin and urea. Additionally, 3D liver co-cultures maintain cytochrome P450 inducibility, form bile canaliculi-like structures and respond to inflammatory stimuli. Upon incubation with selected hepatotoxicants including drugs which have been shown to induce idiosyncratic toxicity, we demonstrated that this model better detected in vivo drug-induced toxicity, including species-specific drug effects, when compared to monolayer hepatocyte cultures. In conclusion, our results underline the importance of more complex and long lasting in vitro cell culture models that contain all liver cell types and allow repeated drug-treatments for detection of in vivo-relevant adverse drug effects. - Highlights: ► 3D liver co-cultures maintain liver specific functions for up to three months. ► Activities of Cytochrome P450s remain drug- inducible accross three months. ► 3D liver co-cultures recapitulate drug-induced liver toxicity

  3. Long-Term Recency in Anterograde Amnesia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Talmi

    Full Text Available Amnesia is usually described as an impairment of a long-term memory (LTM despite an intact short-term memory (STM. The intact recency effect in amnesia had supported this view. Although dual-store models of memory have been challenged by single-store models based on interference theory, this had relatively little influence on our understanding and treatment of amnesia, perhaps because the debate has centred on experiments in the neurologically intact population. Here we tested a key prediction of single-store models for free recall in amnesia: that people with amnesia will exhibit a memory advantage for the most recent items even when all items are stored in and retrieved from LTM, an effect called long-term recency. People with amnesia and matched controls studied, and then free-recalled, word lists with a distractor task following each word, including the last (continual distractor task, CDFR. This condition was compared to an Immediate Free Recall (IFR, no distractors and a Delayed Free Recall (DFR, end-of-list distractor only condition. People with amnesia demonstrated the full long-term recency pattern: the recency effect was attenuated in DFR and returned in CDFR. The advantage of recency over midlist items in CDFR was comparable to that of controls, confirming a key prediction of single-store models. Memory deficits appeared only after the first word recalled in each list, suggesting the impairment in amnesia may emerge only as the participant's recall sequence develops, perhaps due to increased susceptibility to output interference. Our findings suggest that interference mechanisms are preserved in amnesia despite the overall impairment to LTM, and challenge strict dual-store models of memory and their dominance in explaining amnesia. We discuss the implication of our findings for rehabilitation.

  4. Long-Term Recency in Anterograde Amnesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talmi, Deborah; Caplan, Jeremy B; Richards, Brian; Moscovitch, Morris

    2015-01-01

    Amnesia is usually described as an impairment of a long-term memory (LTM) despite an intact short-term memory (STM). The intact recency effect in amnesia had supported this view. Although dual-store models of memory have been challenged by single-store models based on interference theory, this had relatively little influence on our understanding and treatment of amnesia, perhaps because the debate has centred on experiments in the neurologically intact population. Here we tested a key prediction of single-store models for free recall in amnesia: that people with amnesia will exhibit a memory advantage for the most recent items even when all items are stored in and retrieved from LTM, an effect called long-term recency. People with amnesia and matched controls studied, and then free-recalled, word lists with a distractor task following each word, including the last (continual distractor task, CDFR). This condition was compared to an Immediate Free Recall (IFR, no distractors) and a Delayed Free Recall (DFR, end-of-list distractor only) condition. People with amnesia demonstrated the full long-term recency pattern: the recency effect was attenuated in DFR and returned in CDFR. The advantage of recency over midlist items in CDFR was comparable to that of controls, confirming a key prediction of single-store models. Memory deficits appeared only after the first word recalled in each list, suggesting the impairment in amnesia may emerge only as the participant's recall sequence develops, perhaps due to increased susceptibility to output interference. Our findings suggest that interference mechanisms are preserved in amnesia despite the overall impairment to LTM, and challenge strict dual-store models of memory and their dominance in explaining amnesia. We discuss the implication of our findings for rehabilitation.

  5. The Prediction of Long-Term Coating Performance from Short-Term Electrochemical Data. Part 2; Comparison of Electrochemical Data to Field Exposure Results for Coatings on Steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contu, F.; Taylor, S. R.; Calle, L. M.; Hintze, P. E.; Curran, J. P.; Li, W.

    2009-01-01

    The pace of coatings development is limited by the time required to assess their corrosion protection properties. This study takes a step f orward from Part I in that it correlates the corrosion performance of organic coatings assessed by a series of short-term electrochemical measurement with 18-month beachside exposure results of duplicate pan els. A series of 19 coating systems on A36 steel substrates were test ed in a completely blind study using the damage tolerance test (DTT). In the DTT, a through-film pinhole defect is created, and the electro chemical characteristics of the defect are then monitored over the ne xt 4 to 7 days while immersed in 0.SM NaCl. The open circuit potentia l, anodic potentiostatic polarization tests and electrochemical imped ance spectroscopy were used to study the corrosion behavior of the co ating systems. The beachside exposure tests were conducted at the Ken nedy Space Center according to ASTM D610-01. It was found that for 79 % of the coatings systems examined, the 18 month beachside exposure r esults could be predicted by two independent laboratory tests obtained within 7 days.

  6. 一种预测TP347H钢长时持久强度的方法%An Approach for Long-term Creep-rupture Strength Prediction of Steel TH347H

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    党莹樱; 彭志方; 彭芳芳

    2012-01-01

    基于多区LMP法,利用TP347H钢的高温(700℃、750℃)短时(≤5×10^3h)试验数据预测其长时持久强度(600~750℃,5×10^3~2×10^5h).结果表明:在应力-时间图中根据口/dT。的特定比值对应力分区,用低应力-长时区LMP参数中的C值计算长时持久强度,其预测值与真实值吻合良好;与传统的单区LMP法相比,多区LMP法的应用不仅显著降低了持久强度的过估倾向而且大大缩短了试验时间,为这类钢的长时持久强度评估提供了准确而有效的方法.%On the basis of a multi-region Larson-Miller parameter method newly proposed, long term creep rupture strengths (600-750 ℃, 5 ×10^3 -2×10^5 h) were successfully predicted for steel TP347H by using the data from tests lasting up to only 5 × 10^3 h at 700 ℃ and 750 ℃. Results show that in the plot of stress vs. rupture life, a set of creep rupture data can be divided into several data sets according to the specific value of σ/σrs, SO that the value C is unique in each individual data set; by using the C value in LMP corresponding to the lower-stress longer-time region, long-term creep rupture strengths have been assessed for the steel, of which the predicted results agree well with that of actual measurements. Compared with conventional single region LMP method, the proposed approach may not only avoid overestimation of creep rupture strength, but also shorten the time needed for creep rupture tests. This may serve as a reference for prediction of long-term creep-rupture life of similar steels.

  7. Predictive Factors of "Forgotten Knee" Acquisition After Total Knee Arthroplasty: Long-Term Follow-Up of a Large Prospective Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eymard, Florent; Charles-Nelson, Anais; Katsahian, Sandrine; Chevalier, Xavier; Bercovy, Michel

    2017-02-01

    In a large prospective cohort, we recently showed that only 66.1% of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) with a perfect outcome according to Knee Society Knee Score was completely forgotten in all everyday activities. The main objective of this study was to identify clinical and orthopedic factors associated with the acquisition of "forgotten knee" (FK). Patients undergoing TKA were enrolled between January 2001 and January 2008. Preoperative medical history, anthropometric data, and clinical data were recorded, and composite scores (Knee Society Score, Lequesne) were assessed. Radiography was performed before and after surgery. At each follow-up, FK acquisition was assessed by a closed question "Does the operated knee feel always normal in all everyday activities?" We included 510 TKAs performed in 423 patients followed up for a mean of 76.6 ± 28.5 months. On multivariate analysis, depression at baseline and presence of patellar subluxation after surgery were negatively associated with FK acquisition (odds ratio [OR] = 0.28 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.13-0.61], P = .001; and OR = 0.31 [0.12-0.79], P = .01, respectively), whereas increased active flexion at last follow-up was positively associated (OR = 1.07 [1.03-1.10], P < .0001). In patients with a perfect outcome (Knee Society Knee Score = 100), preoperative patellar pain, and postoperative patellar subluxation were negatively associated with FK acquisition (OR = 0.41 [0.18-0.93], P = .03 and OR = 0.21 [0.05-0.90], P = .04, respectively). Gender, age, body mass index, preoperative pain and functional limitation, and patellar resurfacing were not significantly related to FK. Depression and patella maltracking may be associated with lack of FK acquisition after TKA, while postoperative increase in flexion may have a positive impact. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Long-term prediction of three-dimensional bone architecture in simulations of pre-, peri- and post-menopausal microstructural bone remodeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ralph

    2005-03-01

    The mechanical behavior of trabecular bone depends on the internal bone structure. It is generally accepted now that the trabecular bone structure is a result of a load adaptive bone remodeling. The mathematical laws that relate bone remodeling to the local state of stress and strain, however, are still under investigation. The aim of this project was to investigate if changes in the trabecular architecture as observed with age-related bone loss and osteoporosis can be predicted from a computer model that simulates bone resorption after hormone depletion based on realistic models of trabecular microstructure using micro-computed tomography (muCT). A compact desktop muCT providing a nominal isotropic resolution of 14 mum was used to measure two groups of seven trabecular bone specimens from pre-menopausal and post-menopausal women respectively. A novel algorithm was developed to simulate age-related bone loss for the specimens in the first group. The algorithm, also referred to as simulated bone atrophy (SIBA), describes a truly three-dimensional approach and is based directly on cellular bone remodeling with an underlying realistic time frame. Bone resorption is controlled by osteoclastic penetration depth and bone formation is governed by the efficiency level of the osteoblasts. The simulation itself describes an iterative process with a cellular remodeling cycle of 197 days. Activation frequency is controllable and can be adjusted for the different phases of pre-, peri- and post-menopause. For our simulations, osteoblastic and osteoclastic activities were in balance until the onset of menopause, set to be at the age of 50 years. In that period, the structure remained almost constant. After the onset of menopause an imbalance in the cell activities was modeled resulting in a net bone loss. The doubling of the activation frequency in the peri-menopausal phase caused a pronounced loss. Using advanced animation tools and quantitative bone morphometry, the changes in

  9. Health policy model: long-term predictive results associated with the management of hepatitis C virus-induced diseases in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mennini, Francesco Saverio; Marcellusi, Andrea; Andreoni, Massimo; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Salomone, Salvatore; Craxì, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    treated with anti-HCV drugs. A reduction of health care costs is associated with a prevalence decrease. Indeed, once the spending peak is reached during this decade (about €527 million), the model predicts a cost reduction in the following 18 years. In 2030, based on the more effective treatments currently available, the direct health care cost associated with the management of HCV patients may reach €346 million (-34.3% compared to 2012). The first scenario (new treatment in 2015 with SVR =90% and same number of treated patients) was associated with a significant reduction in HCV-induced clinical consequences (prevalence =-3%) and a decrease in direct health care expenses, corresponding to €11.1 million. The second scenario (increase in treated patients to 12,790) produced an incremental cost reduction of €7.3 million, reaching a net decrease equal to €18.4 million. In the third scenario (treated patients =16,770), a higher net direct health care cost decrease versus the base-case (€44.0 million) was estimated. Our model showed that the introduction of new treatments that are more effective could result in a quasi-eradication of HCV, with a very strong reduction in prevalence.

  10. Health policy model: long-term predictive results associated with the management of hepatitis C virus-induced diseases in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mennini FS

    2014-06-01

    randomized clinical trial (RCT relating to boceprevir and telaprevir. For genotypes 2/3 patients it was assumed that treatment efficacy with dual therapy was equal to a SVR rate from the literature. According to the aim of this study, only direct health care costs (hospital admissions, drugs, treatment, and care of patients incurred by the Italian NHS have been included in the model. Costs have been extrapolated using the published scientific literature available in Italy and actualized with the 2012 ISTAT (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica Price Index system for monetary revaluation. Three different scenarios were assumed in order to evaluate the impact of future anti-HCV treatments on the burden of disease.Results: Overall, in Italy, 1.2 million infected subjects were estimated in 2012. Of these, about 211,000 patients were diagnosed, while only about 11,800 subjects were actually being treated with anti-HCV drugs. A reduction of health care costs is associated with a prevalence decrease. Indeed, once the spending peak is reached during this decade (about €527 million, the model predicts a cost reduction in the following 18 years. In 2030, based on the more effective treatments currently available, the direct health care cost associated with the management of HCV patients may reach €346 million (−34.3% compared to 2012. The first scenario (new treatment in 2015 with SVR =90% and same number of treated patients was associated with a significant reduction in HCV-induced clinical consequences (prevalence =−3% and a decrease in direct health care expenses, corresponding to €11.1 million. The second scenario (increase in treated patients to 12,790 produced an incremental cost reduction of €7.3 million, reaching a net decrease equal to €18.4 million. In the third scenario (treated patients =16,770, a higher net direct health care cost decrease versus the base-case (€44.0 million was estimated.Conclusion: Our model showed that the introduction of new treatments

  11. Asthma Medicines: Long-Term Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Size Email Print Share Asthma Medicines: Long-term Control Page Content Article Body Corticosteroids Synthetic versions of ... form, they are used exclusively for long-term control; they are not very effective for acute symptoms. ...

  12. Long term complications after radical cystoprostatectomy with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Long term complications after radical cystoprostatectomy with orthotopic diversion in male ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search · USING ... Objective: To evaluate the long-term outcomes beyond 1 year, both ...

  13. Nonsurgical giant cell tumour of the tendon sheath or of the diffuse type: Are MRI or {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT able to provide an accurate prediction of long-term outcome?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dercle, Laurent [IUCT-Oncopole/Institut Claudius Regaud, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Toulouse (France); Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Radiology, Villejuif (France); Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Villejuif (France); Chisin, Roland [Hebrew University Hadassah Medical Center, Department of Medical Biophysics and Nuclear Medicine, Jerusalem (Israel); Ammari, Samy [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Radiology, Villejuif (France); Gillebert, Quentin [Hopital tenon, Hopitaux Universitaires Est Parisien, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Paris (France); Ouali, Monia [Institut Claudius Regaud, Department of Biostatistics, Toulouse (France); Jaudet, Cyril; Dierickx, Lawrence; Zerdoud, Slimane; Courbon, Frederic [IUCT-Oncopole/Institut Claudius Regaud, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Toulouse (France); Delord, Jean-Pierre [Institut Claudius Regaud, Department of Clinical Research, Toulouse (France); Schlumberger, Martin [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Villejuif (France)

    2014-11-01

    To investigate whether MRI (RECIST 1.1, WHO criteria and the volumetric approach) or {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT (PERCIST 1.0) are able to predict long-term outcome in nonsurgical patients with giant cell tumour of the tendon sheath or of the diffuse type (GCT-TS/DT). Fifteen ''nonsurgical'' patients with a histological diagnosis of GCT-TS/DT were divided into two groups: symptomatic patients receiving targeted therapy and asymptomatic untreated patients. All 15 patients were evaluated by MRI of whom 10 were treated, and a subgroup of 7 patients were evaluated by PET/CT of whom 4 were treated. Early evolution was assessed according to MRI and PET/CT scans at baseline and during follow-up. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used to evaluate the degree of agreement between PERCIST 1.0, RECIST 1.1, WHO criteria, volumetric approaches and the reference standard (long-term outcome, delay 505 ± 457 days). The response rate in symptomatic patients with GCT-TS/DT receiving targeted therapy was also assessed in a larger population that included additional patients obtained from a review of the literature. The kappa coefficients for agreement between RECIST/WHO/volumetric criteria and outcome (15 patients) were respectively: 0.35 (p = 0.06), 0.26 (p = 0.17) and 0.26 (p = 0.17). In the PET/CT subgroup (7 patients), PERCIST was in perfect agreement with the late symptomatic evolution (kappa = 1, p < 0.05). In the treated symptomatic group including the additional patients from the literature the response rates to targeted therapies according to late symptomatic assessment, and PERCIST and RECIST criteria were: 65 % (22/34), 77 % (10/13) and 26 % (10/39). {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT with PERCIST is a promising approach to the prediction of the long-term outcome in GCT-TS/DT and may avoid unnecessary treatments, toxicity and costs. On MRI, WHO and volumetric approaches are not more effective than RECIST using the current thresholds. (orig.)

  14. 软土地层盾构隧道长期沉降规律及预测研究%Research on the Law and Prediction of Long -term Settlement of Shield Tunnel in Soft Soil Stratum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨兵明

    2015-01-01

    研究目的:模型试验是研究隧道工程问题的一个重要手段,为分析软土地层隧道长期沉降的主要原因,本文以宁波地铁1号线一期工程为研究背景,在考虑其地质及工程条件的同时,采用离心模型试验模拟淤泥质黏土和砂土的长期沉降,同时考虑隧道下卧层土层含水率变化、盾构管片不渗漏水和渗漏水对盾构隧道长期沉降的影响。研究结论:(1)盾构隧道下卧层含水率对工后地层沉降影响很大,土层含水量不同,隧道的长期变形可表现为上浮或下沉;(2)处于淤泥质黏土层中的隧道后续沉降不易稳定,砂土有漏水时,隧道的长期变形主要表现为沉降,且沉降稳定的时间较快;(3)利用对数曲线模型推求的沉降预测值与离心模型试验所得的工后沉降值进行对比,两者沉降值基本一致,对数曲线预测模型可为实际工程建设提供技术参考。%Research purposes:Model test is one of the most important methods for studying the problem of tunnel engineering.For analyzing the key reasons of long -term settlement in soft soil stratum in Ningbo,engineering characteristics of the first line of Ningbo rail transit in soft soil stratum is considered,and long -term settlement of muddy clay and sand is effectively simulated with centrifugal model test.The effect of soil moisture content of the soft soil stratum is taken into account,whether seepage water effect on a long -term settlement of shield tunnel. Research conclusions:(1 )The moisture content of the soft soil stratum has great effect on the long -term settlement of the tunnel.The long -term settlement of the tunnel can be expressed as floating or sinking with different the moisture content.(2)The tunnel is not easy to follow a stable settlement in muddy clay stratum,but the tunnel is fast stable of the soil settlement in sand stratum when the sand stratum leaks water.(3)The centrifuge model

  15. CYP2B6*6 and CYP2B6*18 Predict Long-Term Efavirenz Exposure Measured in Hair Samples in HIV-Positive South African Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röhrich, Carola R; Drögemöller, Britt I; Ikediobi, Ogechi; van der Merwe, Lize; Grobbelaar, Nelis; Wright, Galen E B; McGregor, Nathaniel; Warnich, Louise

    2016-06-01

    Long-term exposure to efavirenz (EFV) measured in hair samples may predict response to antiretroviral treatment (ART). Polymorphisms in CYP2B6 are known to alter EFV levels. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between CYP2B6 genotype, EFV levels measured in hair,