WorldWideScience

Sample records for long-term natural variability

  1. The Baltic Sea natural long-term variability of salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimanke, Semjon; Markus Meier, H. E.

    2015-04-01

    The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish sea areas of the world. The sensitive state of the Baltic Sea is sustained by a fresh-water surplus by river discharge and precipitation on one hand as well as inflows of highly saline and oxygen-rich water masses from the North Sea on the other. Major inflows which are crucial for the renewal of the deep water occur very intermittent with a mean frequency of approximately one per year. Stagnation periods (periods without major inflows) lead for instance to a reduction of oxygen concentration in the deep Baltic Sea spreading hypoxic conditions. Depending on the amount of salt water inflow and fresh-water supply the deep water salinity of the Baltic Sea varies between 11 to 14 PSU on the decadal scale. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of different driving factors for the decadal to multi-decadal variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea. Continuous measurement series of salinity exist from the 1950 but are not sufficiently long for the investigation of long-term fluctuations. Therefore, a climate simulation of more than 800 years has been carried out with the Rossby Center Ocean model (RCO). RCO is a biogeochemical regional climate model which covers the entire Baltic Sea. It is driven with atmospheric data dynamical downscaled from a GCM mimicking natural climate variability. The analysis focus on the role of variations in river discharge and precipitation, changes in wind speed and direction, fluctuations in temperature and shifts in large scale pressure patterns (e.g. NAO). Hereby, the length of the simulation will allow to identify mechanisms working on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Moreover, it will be discussed how likely long stagnation periods are under natural climate variability and if the observed exceptional long stagnation period between 1983-1993 might be related to beginning climate change.

  2. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 -10 5 years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., open-quotes natural analoguesclose quotes) provide perhaps the only means of partial open-quotes validation,close quotes as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10 3 -10 8 years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the open-quotes validationclose quotes of performance assessments

  3. Aspects of long-term variability in sun and stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skumanich, A.; Eddy, J.A.

    1981-01-01

    Evidence of long-term solar variability is reviewed, including historical data and the tree-ring record of radiocarbon. Epochs of suppressed activity like the Maunder Minimum are shown to be frequent occurences of the last several thousand years, but without no obvious period of recurrence. Weak evidence exists for the 11-year cycle as early as Medieval times, although with insufficient accuracy to establish long-term phase stability. (orig.)

  4. Long-term variability of precipitation in Republic of Macedonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slavov, Nikola; Marinova, Tania; Ristevski, Pece

    2004-01-01

    During the last century a great attention has been spared to the water resources of the territories of different countries in the world. In the last decades investigations were directed towards the long-term variability of precipitation in the basic regions of agricultural production. Among these investigations the results that indicate decreasing of precipitation amounts during the potential crop-growing season are of especially great interest because precipitation decreasing affects harmfully crop production and population feeding. The purpose of the present work is to study the long-term variability of monthly precipitation sums for 5 representative meteorological stations in Republic of Macedonia: Skopje, Bitola, Prilep, Stip and Demir Kapija for the period 1925-2000. The duration and periodicity of precipitation variations are analyzed on the base of 5-years smooth values for different seasons, warm and cold half-year and for year. The tendencies of trend for the period 1925-2000 are found out.(Author)

  5. Naturalization fosters the long-term political integration of immigrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hainmueller, Jens; Hangartner, Dominik; Pietrantuono, Giuseppe

    2015-01-01

    Does naturalization cause better political integration of immigrants into the host society? Despite heated debates about citizenship policy, there exists almost no evidence that isolates the independent effect of naturalization from the nonrandom selection into naturalization. We provide new evidence from a natural experiment in Switzerland, where some municipalities used referendums as the mechanism to decide naturalization requests. Balance checks suggest that for close naturalization referendums, which are decided by just a few votes, the naturalization decision is as good as random, so that narrowly rejected and narrowly approved immigrant applicants are similar on all confounding characteristics. This allows us to remove selection effects and obtain unbiased estimates of the long-term impacts of citizenship. Our study shows that for the immigrants who faced close referendums, naturalization considerably improved their political integration, including increases in formal political participation, political knowledge, and political efficacy. PMID:26417099

  6. Long-term variability of the spring taryn-aufeises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. R. Alekseev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term variability of large taryn-aufeises was studied for several decades in different regions of the USA (Alaska and Russia (Chukotka, Kolyma, Southern Yakutia, Transbaikalia, and Eastern Sayan. Differences between volumes of individual ice massifs and the recorded maximal values change from 2–3 to 95–100%, and they do not depend on sizes of ice fields and their geographical locations. No statistically significant dependence of the aufeis volumes on the atmospheric precipitation amount and the air temperature was revealed in the most of the above areas. However, a general tendency for decreasing of the annual maxima of the ice reserves due to the climate warming was noticed. The long-term variations of the aufeises show existence of cycles of increase and decrease in their maximum sizes with their durations of 3, 7 and 11 years with the 25–30% amplitude of variations relative to the mean long-term values. In the Arctic areas, some of the giant aufeises do not melt completely during the summer and remain for a next winter. The volume of pereletoks (shortterm permafrost varies within the range of 5–25%, averaging 16% of the spring ice reserves. In the southern geocryological zone, a clearly pronounced dependence of activity of the aufeis processes on the snow thickness was found: when the snow depth increased from 70 to 100 cm, volumes of aufeises decreased by a factor of three, and the aufeises disappeared completely under the thickness larger 120 cm. It should be noted that the processes producing the aufeis-forming sources of subsurface water, and the factors of their layered-ice accumulation remain almost unexplored.

  7. Long-term variability of dust-storms in Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagsson-Waldhauserová, Pavla; Ólafsson, Haraldur; Arnalds, Ólafur

    2013-04-01

    Iceland is a volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean with maritime climate. In spite of moist climate, large areas are with limited vegetation cover where >40% of Iceland is classified with considerable to very severe erosion and 21% of Iceland are volcanic sandy deserts. Natural emissions from these sources influenced by strong winds affect not only regional air quality in Iceland ("Reykjavik haze") but dust particles are transported over the Atlantic ocean and Arctic Ocean > 1000 km at times. The study places Icelandic dust production area into international perspective, present long term frequency of dust storm events in NE Iceland, and estimate dust aerosol concentrations during reported dust events. Meteorological observations with dust presence codes and related visibility were used to identify the frequency and the long-term changes in dust production in NE Iceland. There were annually 16.4 days on average with reported dust observations on weather stations within the NE erosion area, indicating extreme dust plume activity and erosion within the NE deserts, even though the area is covered with snow during the major part of winter. During the 2000s the highest occurrence of dust events in six decades was reported. We have measured saltation and aeolian transport during dust/volcanic ash storms in Iceland which give some of the most intense wind erosion events ever measured. Icelandic dust affects the ecosystems over much of Iceland and causes regional haze. It is likely to affect the ecosystems of the oceans around Iceland, and it brings dust that lowers the albedo of the Icelandic glaciers, increasing melt-off due to global warming. The study indicates that Icelandic dust is not only a substantial source for regional air pollution, but may be considered to contribute to the Arctic haze phenomena and Arctic air pollution.

  8. The role of open ocean boundary forcing on seasonal to decadal-scale variability and long-term change of natural shelf hypoxia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Pedro M S; Dewitte, Boris; Paulmier, Aurelien; Scranton, Mary I; Van der Plas, Anja K

    2011-01-01

    In this study we investigate the possible reasons for the widespread differences between the seasonal cycles of carbon production and export compared to those of hypoxia in eastern boundary upwelling systems. An idealized model is proposed that qualitatively characterizes the relative roles of physics and biogeochemical fluxes. The model is tested on three contrasting upwelling systems: the Benguela (from relatively aerated to interannual anoxic), the Humboldt (sub-oxic and interannually anoxic) and the Cariaco (permanently anoxic). Overall we propose that shelf hypoxia variability can be explained on the basis of the interaction between ventilation by ocean boundary forcing through ocean-shelf exchange and the role of shelf geometry in the retention of shelf-based particulate organic carbon (POC) fluxes. We aim to identify the hypoxia regimes associated with low ventilation-wide-shelf systems and high ventilation-narrow-shelf systems, considering them as extremes of conditions controlled by the two factors. We propose that this may help to explain differences in the seasonal cycles of the biogeochemical drivers and responses as well as difference between upwelling systems and within individual upwelling systems. It is suggested that when seasonal hypoxia emerges it does so preferentially at a wide-shelf part of a system.

  9. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Philandras

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

    The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

  10. Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook - February 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2015-02-01

    World natural gas demand is expected to grow by 1.8%/year over 2013- 2035. Asia-Oceania explains 42% of the incremental demand (China: 28%), followed by the Middle East (24%). Natural gas share in world primary energy supply is projected to increase from an estimated 21.3% in 2013 to 23.6% in 2035 to the detriment of other fossil fuels. Although the expansion of gas demand is spread across all of the main consuming sectors, gas-fired power generation remains the largest contributor to growth. Natural gas production is growing everywhere, with the exception of Europe (-2.1%/year). The largest regional production gains are expected in Asia Oceania, the Middle East and North America. Shale gas will provide one third of the incremental natural gas supply by 2035. In the US, shale gas production will account for 56% of national output by 2035, versus 44% in 2013. Net inter-regional trade is forecast to grow by 3.1%/year to 821 bcm by 2035. The CIS will record the largest volumetric growth in net exports (+ 191 bcm). The share of LNG in net inter-regional flows will increase from 46% in 2013 to 50% in 2035. The international LNG market is expected to tighten after 2020. The price differentials between the US, Europe and Japan will narrow in a context of globalization of gas markets via a strong expansion of the LNG trade (flexible LNG). A number of powerful factors argue in favour of a growing contribution of natural gas to meet the economic, environmental and security challenges of the world energy system. In terms of supply, costly investments must be made to meet future demand, limit tensions on international markets and favour supply security, flexibility and diversification. Despite a growing component of spot indexing in pricing formulas, oil indexing (Asia) and long term contracts will remain necessary to meet the massive investment requirements in new and capital-intensive projects. The competitiveness of natural gas remains a major challenge. The orientation of

  11. Long term variability of HDE 226868 = Cygnus X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liller, W.

    1976-01-01

    Investigation of blue-sensitive photographs of HDE 226868 = Cygnus X-1 reveal no (+-0.06 mag) long-term changes in brightness since the beginning of the century nor any abrupt intensity changes similar to what has been observed at x-ray and radio frequencies. From the double sinusoidal fluctuation with 5.6 day period, an attempt is made to derive a more precise value for the orbital period, but problems are encountered and discussed. There exists evidence that the amplitude of the orbital fluctuations is increasing slowly with time

  12. Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: natural history and long term treatment effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asher Marc A

    2006-03-01

    risks of major surgery, a 6 to 29% chance of requiring re-operation, and the remote possibility of developing a pain management problem. Knowledge of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis natural history and long-term treatment effects is and will always remain somewhat incomplete. However, enough is know to provide patients and parents the information needed to make informed decisions about management options.

  13. Finding The Baseline--Putting Recent Eutrophication Of Two South Texas Coastal Water Bodies Into Perspective By Using Sedimentary Records To Examine The Long-Term, Natural Variability Of The Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besonen, M. R.; Zimba, P.; Hill, E.; Tissot, P.; Mckay, M.; Silliman, J.

    2013-12-01

    reservoirs along the Nueces River, the primary inflow for the system. The lack of long-term environmental monitoring records makes it difficult to disentangle the complex interrelationships between the natural and anthropogenic factors that have contributed to eutrophication. To address this issue, we are examining proxy evidence from sediment cores to look back in time, and understand the true baseline conditions and natural variability of these systems long before they were affected by anthropogenic impacts. We are using a suite of geological, chemical, and biological indicators including color spectral reflectance (for total chlorophyll content), organic carbon content via loss-on-ignition, Terrigenous/Aquatic Ratio (TARHC), TOC, C/N ratio analysis, pigment analysis via HPLC, and microfossil assemblage analysis. Age control for the stratigraphy will be provided by radiometric age analyses using 137Cs, 210Pb, and 14C. Initial results from spectral reflectance scanning of sediment cores from the Nueces Estuary appear to indicate an increased chlorophyll content up core, which probably reflects a long-term increase of primary productivity in the system.

  14. Long-term phenology and variability of Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Steenkamp, K

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available and classification of vegetation, (ii) studying the impact of climate change, and influence of rainfall variability (iii) monitoring Satellite-derived phenology and (iv) detecting changes in land use/ land cover. This study analyzed vegetation phenology across...

  15. Long-term trends in geomagnetic and climatic variability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 27, 6/7 (2002), s. 427-731 ISSN 1474-7065 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : geomagnetic forcing * climatic variability * global warming Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  16. Long-term studies of the natural history of asthma in childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, Hans; Bønnelykke, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    Segmentation of children with asthma and other wheezy disorders remains the main research challenge today, as it was when described 2 centuries ago. Early childhood wheezy disorders follow different temporal trajectories, probably representing different underlying mechanisms (endophenotypes...... secondary prevention through the use of inhaled corticosteroids can effectively halt the long-term disease progression in childhood. In conclusion, the natural history of asthma and the associated airway changes is still poorly understood, and we have not managed to translate findings from long-term studies......). Prospective identification of endophenotypes allowing accurate prediction of the clinical course is currently not possible. The variability of the clinical course remains an enigma and difficult to predict. Three of 4 school-aged children with asthma have outgrown disease by midadulthood. The risk...

  17. Long-term studies of the natural history of asthma in childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, Hans; Bønnelykke, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    secondary prevention through the use of inhaled corticosteroids can effectively halt the long-term disease progression in childhood. In conclusion, the natural history of asthma and the associated airway changes is still poorly understood, and we have not managed to translate findings from long-term studies...

  18. Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beelen, Rob; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Stafoggia, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air...... pollutants....

  19. Fluoxetine Inhibits Natural Decay of Long-Term Memory via Akt/GSK-3β Signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Jee Hyun; Zhang, JiaBao; Ko, Sang Yoon; Kwon, Huiyoung; Jeon, Se Jin; Park, Se Jin; Jung, Jiwook; Kim, Byung C; Lee, Young Choon; Kim, Dong Hyun; Ryu, Jong Hoon

    2018-02-09

    Understanding the mechanisms underlying the natural decay of long-term memory can help us find means of extending the duration of long-term memory. However, the neurobiological processes involved in the decay of long-term memory are poorly understood. In the present study, we examined the effect of acute and chronic treatment of fluoxetine on natural decay of long-term memory and the possible mechanism. Late administration of fluoxetine prolonged the persistence of long-term memory in mice, as demonstrated by object location recognition and Barnes maze tests. Fluoxetine altered Akt/glycogen synthase kinase-3β (GSK-3β)/β-catenin signaling in the hippocampus. Late short- and long-term pharmacological inhibition of GSK-3β mimicked the effect of fluoxetine on memory persistence. Pharmacological inhibition of Akt blocked the effect of fluoxetine on memory persistence. Finally, late infusion of fluoxetine increased hippocampal long-term potentiation (LTP) and pharmacological inhibition of GSK-3β blocked the natural decline in LTP. These results demonstrate that GSK-3β might be a key molecule in memory decay process, and fluoxetine extends the period of long-term memory maintenance via Akt/GSK-3β signaling.

  20. Does ecosystem variability explain phytoplankton diversity? Solving an ecological puzzle with long-term data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarker, Subrata; Lemke, Peter; Wiltshire, Karen H.

    2018-05-01

    Explaining species diversity as a function of ecosystem variability is a long-term discussion in community-ecology research. Here, we aimed to establish a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity in a shallow-sea ecosystem. We used long-term data on biotic and abiotic factors from Helgoland Roads, along with climate data to assess the effect of ecosystem variability on phytoplankton diversity. A point cumulative semi-variogram method was used to estimate the long-term ecosystem variability. A Markov chain model was used to estimate dynamical processes of species i.e. occurrence, absence and outcompete probability. We identified that the 1980s was a period of high ecosystem variability while the last two decades were comparatively less variable. Ecosystem variability was found as an important predictor of phytoplankton diversity at Helgoland Roads. High diversity was related to low ecosystem variability due to non-significant relationship between probability of a species occurrence and absence, significant negative relationship between probability of a species occurrence and probability of a species to be outcompeted by others, and high species occurrence at low ecosystem variability. Using an exceptional marine long-term data set, this study established a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity.

  1. Long-Term Variability in o Ceti and Other Mira Variables: Signs of Supergranular Convection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

    2009-09-01

    We describe our study of long-term variability of o Ceti (Mira A), the prototype of the Mira-type pulsating stars. Our study was originally undertaken to search for coherent long-period variability, but the results of our analysis didn't uncover this. However, we detected a low-frequency ``red noise'' in the Fourier spectrum of the o Ceti century-long light curve. We have since found similar behavior in other Miras and pulsating giant stars and have begun a study of a large sample of Mira variables. Similar red noise has been previously detected in red supergiants and attributed to supergranular convection. Its presence in Miras suggests the phenomenon may be ubiquitous in cool giant pulsators. These results support high-angular resolution observations of Miras and supergiants showing asymmetries in their surface brightness distributions, which may be due to large supergranular convection cells. Theoretical modeling, and numerical simulations of pulsation processes in late-type giants and supergiants should therefore take into account the effects of deep convection and large supergranular structures, which in turn may provide important insights into the behavior of Miras and other giant and supergiant pulsators. In this work, we summarize our results for o Ceti, present preliminary results of our broader study of Mira variables, and discuss how the results of this study may be used by future studies of AGB variables.

  2. Long-term contracts and take-or-pay clauses in natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creti, A.; Villeneuve, B.

    2004-01-01

    Theoretical and empirical research on long-term contracts inspired by the American experience are surveyed, with emphasis on the analysis of the role of take-or-pay clauses and price indexation rules, and whether regulation distorts optimal contract duration. The underlying motivation is to analyze the economic fundamentals of the European Union provisions on long-term contracts in the natural gas industry, and to highlight the features that differentiate them from the American experience. The impacts of long term contracts in the opening to competition of the European Union natural gas sector, and the apparent confusion between contract duration and flexibility as applied to long-term contracts in the European Union, are also explored. 29 refs., 2 tabs

  3. Glucose variability negatively impacts long-term functional outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsushima, Kazuhide; Peng, Monica; Velasco, Carlos; Schaefer, Eric; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Frankel, Heidi

    2012-04-01

    Significant glycemic excursions (so-called glucose variability) affect the outcome of generic critically ill patients but has not been well studied in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of glucose variability on long-term functional outcome of patients with TBI. A noncomputerized tight glucose control protocol was used in our intensivist model surgical intensive care unit. The relationship between the glucose variability and long-term (a median of 6 months after injury) functional outcome defined by extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) was analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models. Glucose variability was defined by SD and percentage of excursion (POE) from the preset range glucose level. A total of 109 patients with TBI under tight glucose control had long-term GOSE evaluated. In univariable analysis, there was a significant association between lower GOSE score and higher mean glucose, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL but not POE 80 to 110. After adjusting for possible confounding variables in multivariable ordinal logistic regression models, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL were significantly associated with lower GOSE score. Glucose variability was significantly associated with poorer long-term functional outcome in patients with TBI as measured by the GOSE score. Well-designed protocols to minimize glucose variability may be key in improving long-term functional outcome. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minji Seo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

  5. Long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires in South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Morton, D. C.; Yin, Y. F.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; van der Werf, G.R.; DeFries, R. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Landscape fires in South America have considerable impacts on ecosystems, air quality and the climate system. We examined long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires for the continent during 2001-2012 using multiple satellite-derived fire

  6. Does tropical forest fragmentation increase long-term variability of butterfly communities?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison K Leidner

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism, and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics.

  7. Does Tropical Forest Fragmentation Increase Long-Term Variability of Butterfly Communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidner, Allison K.; Haddad, Nick M.; Lovejoy, Thomas E.

    2010-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism), and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration) did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics. PMID:20224772

  8. On the long-term variability of Jupiter and Saturn zonal winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Garcia-Melendo, E.; Hueso, R.; Barrado-Izagirre, N.; Legarreta, J.; Rojas, J. F.

    2012-12-01

    We present an analysis of the long-term variability of Jupiter and Saturn zonal wind profiles at their upper cloud level as retrieved from cloud motion tracking on images obtained at ground-based observatories and with different spacecraft missions since 1979, encompassing about three Jovian and one Saturn years. We study the sensitivity and variability of the zonal wind profile in both planets to major planetary-scale disturbances and to seasonal forcing. We finally discuss the implications that these results have for current model efforts to explain the global tropospheric circulation in these planets. Acknowledgements: This work has been funded by Spanish MICIIN AYA2009-10701 with FEDER support, Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07 and UPV/EHU UFI11/55. [1] Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Icarus, 147, 405-420 (2000). [2] García-Melendo E., Sánchez LavegaA., Icarus, 152, 316-330 (2001) [3] Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Nature, 423, 623-625 (2003). [4] García-Melendo E., et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L22204 (2010).

  9. Long-Term Variability of Satellite Lake Surface Water Temperatures in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gierach, M. M.; Matsumoto, K.; Holt, B.; McKinney, P. J.; Tokos, K.

    2014-12-01

    The Great Lakes are the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth that approximately 37 million people depend upon for fresh drinking water, food, flood and drought mitigation, and natural resources that support industry, jobs, shipping and tourism. Recent reports have stated (e.g., the National Climate Assessment) that climate change can impact and exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes, including changes in the range and distribution of certain fish species, increased invasive species and harmful algal blooms, declining beach health, and lengthened commercial navigation season. In this study, we will examine the impact of climate change on the Laurentian Great Lakes through investigation of long-term lake surface water temperatures (LSWT). We will use the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate: Lake Surface Water Temperature & Ice Cover (ARC-Lake) product over the period 1995-2012 to investigate individual and interlake variability. Specifically, we will quantify the seasonal amplitude of LSWTs, the first and last appearances of the 4°C isotherm (i.e., an important identifier of the seasonal evolution of the lakes denoting winter and summer stratification), and interpret these quantities in the context of global interannual climate variability such as ENSO.

  10. Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David

    2016-04-01

    Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for

  11. Methods for Minimization and Management of Variability in Long-Term Groundwater Monitoring Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    DECEMBER 2015 Poonam Kulkarni Charles Newell Claire Krebs Thomas McHugh GSI Environmental, Inc. Britt Sanford ProHydro Distribution...based on an understanding of the short-term variability and long-term attenuation rate at a particular site ( McHugh et al., 2015a). The...time is independent of these parameters ( McHugh et al., 2015c). The relative trade-off between monitoring frequency and time required to

  12. Radiocaesium in grazing sheep. A statistical analysis of variability, survey methodology and long term behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mehli, H

    1996-05-01

    Since 1987 sheep grazing in the areas of Norway that received Chernobyl-fallout have been monitored before slaughter. These monitoring data formed the basis for development of a model describing the long term behaviour of radiocesium in unimproved pasture showing that in years with good mushroom abundance 70-80% of the radiocesium concentration in sheep is due to fungi consumption. A study of sampling strategy and variability of radiocesium concentration within flocks was also performed. 55 refs., 31 figs., 15 tabs.

  13. Radiocaesium in grazing sheep. A statistical analysis of variability, survey methodology and long term behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehli, H.

    1996-05-01

    Since 1987 sheep grazing in the areas of Norway that received Chernobyl-fallout have been monitored before slaughter. These monitoring data formed the basis for development of a model describing the long term behaviour of radiocesium in unimproved pasture showing that in years with good mushroom abundance 70-80% of the radiocesium concentration in sheep is due to fungi consumption. A study of sampling strategy and variability of radiocesium concentration within flocks was also performed. 55 refs., 31 figs., 15 tabs

  14. Short- and long-term variations in non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to investigate the short- and long-term variations in the non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability, and to determine the relationships between conventional time and frequency domain methods and the newer non-linear methods of characterizing heart rate...... rate and describes mainly linear correlations. Non-linear predictability is correlated with heart rate variability measured as the standard deviation of the R-R intervals and the respiratory activity expressed as power of the high-frequency band. The dynamics of heart rate variability changes suddenly...

  15. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

  16. Long-term data series relating to Southern Africa's renewable natural resources

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Macdonald, IAW

    1988-01-01

    Full Text Available agricultural and veterinary data series. The remaining five chapters are of a more synthetic nature and examine the topics of palaeoenvironmental changes, environmental-forcing mechanisms, linkages between ecosyterns, the analysis and storage of long-term data...

  17. Guidance of Attention to Objects and Locations by Long-Term Memory of Natural Scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Mark W.; Rasmussen, Ian P.

    2008-01-01

    Four flicker change-detection experiments demonstrate that scene-specific long-term memory guides attention to both behaviorally relevant locations and objects within a familiar scene. Participants performed an initial block of change-detection trials, detecting the addition of an object to a natural scene. After a 30-min delay, participants…

  18. Long-term variability of extreme waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobroliubov, Sergey

    2013-04-01

    In order to study extreme storm waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Sea we used the spectral wave model SWAN. Significant wave height, swell and sea height, direction of propagation, their length and period were calculated with the NCEP/NCAR (1,9°x1,9°, 4-daily) reanalysis wind forcing from 1948 to 2010 in the Caspian, Black and Baltic Seas and with the NCEP/CFSR (0,3°x0,3°, 1 hour) for the period from 1979 to 2010 in the Azov Sea. The calculations were performed on supercomputers of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU). The spatial resolution of the numerical grid was of order 5 km for the Caspian, Baltic and Black Seas, 2 km for the Azov Sea. These model wave hindcasts were used to calculate interannual and seasonal variability of the storm frequency, location and duration. The Initial Distribution Method and Annual Maxima Series Methods were used to study probable waves of a century reoccurrence. The long-term variability of extreme waves revealed different trends in the investigated seas. The Caspian and Azov seas decreased the storm activity, while in the Baltic Sea the number of storm cases increased and the Black Sea showed no significant trend. The of more than 12 m were observed in two centers in the middle part of the Caspian Sea and in the center of the Baltic Sea. In the Black Sea the extreme waves of the same probability of more than 14 m were found in the region to the south of the Crimean peninsula. In the Azov Sea the highest waves of a century reoccurrence do not exceed 5 m. The work was done in Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory, MSU under contract G.34.31.0007.

  19. Local variability in long-term care services: local autonomy, exogenous influences and policy spillovers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, José-Luis; Forder, Julien

    2015-03-01

    In many countries, public responsibility over the funding and provision of long-term care services is held at the local level. In such systems, long-term care provision is often characterised by significant local variability. Using a panel dataset of local authorities over the period 2002-2012, the paper investigates the underlying causes of variation in gross social care expenditure for older people in England. The analysis distinguishes between factors outside the direct control of policy makers, local preferences and local policy spillovers. The results indicate that local demand and supply factors, and to a much lesser extent local political preferences and spatial policy spillovers, explain a large majority of the observed variation in expenditure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Long-term Prognosis in COPD Exacerbation: Role of Biomarkers, Clinical Variables and Exacerbation Type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grolimund, Eva; Kutz, Alexander; Marlowe, Robert J; Vögeli, Alaadin; Alan, Murat; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Thomann, Robert; Falconnier, Claudine; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Zimmerli, Werner; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2015-06-01

    Long-term outcome prediction in COPD is challenging. We conducted a prospective 5-7-year follow-up study in patients with COPD to determine the association of exacerbation type, discharge levels of inflammatory biomarkers including procalctionin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC) and plasma proadrenomedullin (ProADM), alone or combined with demographic/clinical characteristics, with long-term all-cause mortality in the COPD setting. The analyzed cohort comprised 469 patients with index hospitalization for pneumonic (n = 252) or non-pneumonic (n = 217) COPD exacerbation. Five-to-seven-year vital status was ascertained via structured phone interviews with patients or their household members/primary care physicians. We investigated predictive accuracy using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). After a median [25th-75th percentile] 6.1 [5.6-6.5] years, mortality was 55% (95%CI 50%-59%). Discharge ProADM concentration was strongly associated with 5-7-year non-survival: adjusted hazard ratio (HR)/10-fold increase (95%CI) 10.4 (6.2-17.7). Weaker associations were found for PCT and no significant associations were found for CRP or WBC. Combining ProADM with demographic/clinical variables including age, smoking status, BMI, New York Heart Association dyspnea class, exacerbation type, and comorbidities significantly improved long-term predictive accuracy over that of the demographic/clinical model alone: AUC (95%CI) 0.745 (0.701-0.789) versus 0.727 (0.681-0.772), (p) = .043. In patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation, discharge ProADM levels appeared to accurately predict 5-7-year all-cause mortality and to improve long-term prognostic accuracy of multidimensional demographic/clinical mortality risk assessment.

  1. Long-term and within-day variability of working memory performance and EEG in individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevins, Alan; McEvoy, Linda K; Smith, Michael E; Chan, Cynthia S; Sam-Vargas, Lita; Baum, Cliff; Ilan, Aaron B

    2012-07-01

    Assess individual-subject long-term and within-day variability of a combined behavioral and EEG test of working memory. EEGs were recorded from 16 adults performing n-back working memory tasks, with 10 tested in morning and afternoon sessions over several years. Participants were also tested after ingesting non-prescription medications or recreational substances. Performance and EEG measures were analyzed to derive an Overall score and three constituent sub-scores characterizing changes in performance, cortical activation, and alertness from each individual's baseline. Long-term and within-day variability were determined for each score; medication effects were assessed by reference to each individual's normal day-to-day variability. Over the several year period, the mean Overall score and sub-scores were approximately zero with standard deviations less than one. Overall scores were lower and their variability higher in afternoon relative to morning sessions. At the group level, alcohol, diphenhydramine and marijuana produced significant effects, but there were large individual differences. Objective working memory measures incorporating performance and EEG are stable over time and sensitive at the level of individual subjects to interventions that affect neurocognitive function. With further research these measures may be suitable for use in individualized medical care by providing a sensitive assessment of incipient illness and response to treatment. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  2. Long-Term Variability of the Sun in the Context of Solar-Analog Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egeland, Ricky

    2018-06-01

    The Sun is the best observed object in astrophysics, but despite this distinction the nature of its well-ordered generation of magnetic field in 11-year activity cycles remains a mystery. In this work, we place the solar cycle in a broader context by examining the long-term variability of solar analog stars within 5% of the solar effective temperature, but varied in rotation rate and metallicity. Emission in the Fraunhofer H & K line cores from singly-ionized calcium in the lower chromosphere is due to magnetic heating, and is a proven proxy for magnetic flux on the Sun. We use Ca H & K observations from the Mount Wilson Observatory HK project, the Lowell Observatory Solar Stellar Spectrograph, and other sources to construct composite activity time series of over 100 years in length for the Sun and up to 50 years for 26 nearby solar analogs. Archival Ca H & K observations of reflected sunlight from the Moon using the Mount Wilson instrument allow us to properly calibrate the solar time series to the S-index scale used in stellar studies. We find the mean solar S-index to be 5–9% lower than previously estimated, and the amplitude of activity to be small compared to active stars in our sample. A detailed look at the young solar analog HD 30495, which rotates 2.3 times faster than the Sun, reveals a large amplitude ~12-year activity cycle and an intermittent short-period variation of 1.7 years, comparable to the solar variability time scales despite its faster rotation. Finally, time series analyses of the solar analog ensemble and a quantitative analysis of results from the literature indicate that truly Sun-like cyclic variability is rare, and that the amplitude of activity over both long and short timescales is linearly proportional to the mean activity. We conclude that the physical conditions conducive to a quasi-periodic magnetic activity cycle like the Sun’s are rare in stars of approximately the solar mass, and that the proper conditions may be restricted

  3. Intraindividual Variability and Long-Term Changes of Thermal Quantitative Sensory Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krøigård, Thomas; Sothynathan, Isaivani; Sindrup, Søren H

    2015-01-01

    Thermal threshold examinations are widely used in the clinical setting and in studies to assess the function of the peripheral sensory nervous system. Little is known about the variation from one side of the body to the other and the long-term temporal changes and variability. In this study, 134...... and foot. Bilateral stimulations resulted in relative intertrial variations ranging from 19% to 40%. There was no significant temporal change for repeated measures. Analysis of the individual measurements of each subject at baseline and at 26 weeks, however, resulted in relatively large intertrial...

  4. LONG-TERM X-RAY VARIABILITY STUDY OF IC342 FROM XMM-NEWTON OBSERVATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, Daisy S. Y.; Pun, Chun S. J.; Kong, Albert K. H.

    2011-01-01

    We presented the results of an analysis of four XMM-Newton observations of the starburst galaxy IC342 taken over a four-year span from 2001 to 2005, with an emphasis on investigating the long-term flux and spectral variability of the X-ray point sources. We detected a total of 61 X-ray sources within 35' x 30' of the galaxy down to a luminosity of (1-2) x 10 37 erg s -1 depending on the local background. We found that 39 of the 61 detected sources showed long-term variability, in which 26 of them were classified as X-ray transients. We also found 19 sources exhibiting variations in hardness ratios or undergoing spectral transitions among observations, and were identified as spectral variables. In particular, eight of the identified X-ray transients showed spectral variability in addition to flux variability. The diverse patterns of variability observed are indicative of a population of X-ray binaries. We used X-ray colors, flux and spectral variability, and in some cases the optical or radio counterparts to classify the detected X-ray sources into several stellar populations. We identified a total of 11 foreground stars, 1 supersoft source (SSS), 3 quasisoft sources (QSSs), and 2 supernova remnants (SNRs). The identified SSS/QSSs are located near or on the spiral arms, associated with young stellar populations; the 2 SNRs are very close to the starburst nucleus where current star formation activities are dominated. We also discovered a spectral change in the nuclear source of IC342 for the first time by a series of X-ray spectrum analysis.

  5. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2017-11-03

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

  6. Anomalous Low States and Long Term Variability in the Black Hole Binary LMC X-3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smale, Alan P.; Boyd, Patricia T.

    2012-01-01

    Rossi X-my Timing Explorer observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal an extended very low X-ray state lasting from 2003 December 13 until 2004 March 18, unprecedented both in terms of its low luminosity (>15 times fainter than ever before seen in this source) and long duration (approx 3 times longer than a typical low/hard state excursion). During this event little to no source variability is observed on timescales of approx hours-weeks, and the X-ray spectrum implies an upper limit of 1.2 x 10(exp 35) erg/s, Five years later another extended low state occurs, lasting from 2008 December 11 until 2009 June 17. This event lasts nearly twice as long as the first, and while significant variability is observed, the source remains reliably in the low/hard spectral state for the approx 188 day duration. These episodes share some characteristics with the "anomalous low states" in the neutron star binary Her X-I. The average period and amplitude of the Variability of LMC X-3 have different values between these episodes. We characterize the long-term variability of LMC X-3 before and after the two events using conventional and nonlinear time series analysis methods, and show that, as is the case in Her X-I, the characteristic amplitude of the variability is related to its characteristic timescale. Furthermore, the relation is in the same direction in both systems. This suggests that a similar mechanism gives rise to the long-term variability, which in the case of Her X-I is reliably modeled with a tilted, warped precessing accretion disk.

  7. Natural gas market assessment: Long-term Canadian natural gas contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-08-01

    A descriptive analysis is presented of the changes which have occurred and the developing trends in the long-term Canadian contracts governing the sale of western Canadian gas into the domestic and export markets from 1985 to 1991. The report is limited to domestic and export contracts for Canadian gas and does not include imported gas under contract. Contract structures prior to deregulation, the changing role of long-term contracts, size and duration of long-term contracts, and terms and conditions of long-term contracts are discussed. Important changes since the mid-1980s include: increased flexibility in long-term contracts enabling the parties to respond more readily to changing supply and demand conditions; greater balance between the buyer's obligation to purchase and the seller's obligation to deliver; flexible and increasingly simple pricing terms that track competitive market conditions; shorter contract terms; reduced contract volumes as smaller end-users and producer/marketers enter the market; and unbundling of gas sales and transportation service providing a wider range of contracting choices and options. 36 figs., 2 tabs

  8. On the contribution of binocular disparity to the long-term memory for natural scenes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Valsecchi

    Full Text Available Binocular disparity is a fundamental dimension defining the input we receive from the visual world, along with luminance and chromaticity. In a memory task involving images of natural scenes we investigate whether binocular disparity enhances long-term visual memory. We found that forest images studied in the presence of disparity for relatively long times (7s were remembered better as compared to 2D presentation. This enhancement was not evident for other categories of pictures, such as images containing cars and houses, which are mostly identified by the presence of distinctive artifacts rather than by their spatial layout. Evidence from a further experiment indicates that observers do not retain a trace of stereo presentation in long-term memory.

  9. Long-term variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative effects in Northern Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvärinen, Antti; Asmi, Eija; Hatakka, Juha; Viisanen, Yrjö

    2017-04-01

    We introduce long term dataset of aerosol scattering and absorption properties and combined aerosol optical properties measured in Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Norhern Finland. The station is located 170 km north of the Arctic Circle. The station is affected by both pristine Arctic air masses as well as long transported air pollution from northern Europe. We studied the optical properties of aerosols and their radiative effects in continental and marine air masses, including seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The average (median) scattering coefficient, backscattering fraction, absorption coefficient and single scattering albedo at the wavelength of 550 nm were 7.9 (4.4) 1/Mm, 0.13 (0.12), 0.74 (0.35) 1/Mm and 0.92 (0.93), respectively. We observed clear seasonal cycles in these variables, the scattering coefficient having high values during summer and low in fall, and absorption coefficient having high values during winter and low in fall. We found that the high values of the absorption coefficient and low values of the single scattering albedo were related to continental air masses from lower latitudes. These aerosols can induce an additional effect on the surface albedo and melting of snow. We observed the signal of the Arctic haze in marine (northern) air masses during March and April. The haze increased the value of the absorption coefficient by almost 80% and that of the scattering coefficient by about 50% compared with the annual-average values. We did not observe any long-term trend in the scattering coefficient, while our analysis showed a clear decreasing trend in the backscattering fraction and scattering Ångström exponent during winter. We also observed clear relationship with temperature and aerosol scattering coefficient. We will present also how these different features affects to aerosol direct radiative forcing.

  10. LONG-TERM LIGHT CURVE OF HIGHLY VARIABLE PROTOSTELLAR STAR GM CEP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Limin; Kroll, Peter; Henden, Arne A.

    2010-01-01

    We present data from the archival plates at Harvard College Observatory and Sonneberg Observatory showing the field of the solar-type pre-main-sequence star GM Cep. A total of 186 magnitudes of GM Cep have been measured on these archival plates, with 176 in blue sensitivity, six in visible, and four in red. We combine our data with data from the literature and from the American Association of Variable Star Observers to depict the long-term light curves of GM Cep in both B and V wavelengths. The light curves span from 1895 until now, with two densely sampled regions (1935-1945 in the B band, and 2006 until now in the V band). The long-term light curves do not show any fast rise behavior as predicted by an accretion mechanism. Both the light curves and the magnitude histograms confirm the conclusion that the light curves are dominated by dips (possibly from extinction) superposed on some quiescence state, instead of outbursts caused by accretion flares. Our result excludes the possibility of GM Cep being a FUor, EXor, or McNeil's Nebula-type star. Several special cases of T Tauri stars were checked, but none of these light curves were compatible with that of GM Cep. The lack of periodicity in the light curve excludes the possibility of GM Cep being a KH 15D system.

  11. Natural physical and biological processes compromise the long-term performance of compacted soil caps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, E.D.

    1995-01-01

    Compacted soil barriers are components of essentially all caps placed on closed waste disposal sites. The intended functions of soil barriers in waste facility caps include restricting infiltration of water and release of gases and vapors, either independently or in combination with synthetic membrane barriers, and protecting other manmade or natural barrier components. Review of the performance of installed soil barriers and of natural processes affecting their performance indicates that compacted soil caps may function effectively for relatively short periods (years to decades), but natural physical and biological processes can be expected to cause them to fail in the long term (decades to centuries). This paper addresses natural physical and biological processes that compromise the performance of compacted soil caps and suggests measures that may reduce the adverse consequences of these natural failure mechanisms

  12. Seasonal, Spatial, and Long-term Variability of Fine Mineral Dust in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, J. L.; White, W. H.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hyslop, N. P.; Gill, T. E.; Schichtel, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    Characterizing the seasonal, spatial, and long-term variability of fine mineral dust (FD) is important to assess its environmental and climate impacts. FD concentrations (mineral particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm) were estimated using ambient, ground-based PM2.5 elemental chemistry data from over 160 remote and rural Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites from 2011 through 2015. FD concentrations were highest and contributed over 50% of PM2.5 mass at southwestern sites in spring and across the central and southeastern United States in summer (20-30% of PM2.5). The highest seasonal variability in FD occurred at sites in the Southeast during summer, likely associated with impacts from North African transport, which was also evidenced in the elemental ratios of calcium, iron, and aluminum. Long-term trend analyses (2000-2015) indicated widespread, regional increases in FD concentrations during spring in the West, especially in March in the Southwest. This increase was associated with an early onset of the spring dust season and correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The Southeast and central United States also experienced increased FD concentrations during summer and fall, respectively. Contributions of FD to PM2.5 mass have increased in regions across the United States during all seasons, in part due to increased FD concentrations but also as a result of reductions in secondary aerosols (e.g., sulfates, nitrates, and organic carbon). Increased levels of FD have important implications for its environmental and climate impacts; mitigating these impacts will require identifying and characterizing source regions and underlying mechanisms for dust episodes.

  13. The Chaotic Long-term X-ray Variability of 4U 1705-44

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillipson, R. A.; Boyd, P. T.; Smale, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    The low-mass X-ray binary 4U1705-44 exhibits dramatic long-term X-ray time variability with a timescale of several hundred days. The All-Sky Monitor (ASM) aboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and the Japanese Monitor of All-sky X-ray Image (MAXI) aboard the International Space Station together have continuously observed the source from December 1995 through May 2014. The combined ASM-MAXI data provide a continuous time series over fifty times the length of the timescale of interest. Topological analysis can help us identify 'fingerprints' in the phase-space of a system unique to its equations of motion. The Birman-Williams theorem postulates that if such fingerprints are the same between two systems, then their equations of motion must be closely related. The phase-space embedding of the source light curve shows a strong resemblance to the double-welled nonlinear Duffing oscillator. We explore a range of parameters for which the Duffing oscillator closely mirrors the time evolution of 4U1705-44. We extract low period, unstable periodic orbits from the 4U1705-44 and Duffing time series and compare their topological information. The Duffing and 4U1705-44 topological properties are identical, providing strong evidence that they share the same underlying template. This suggests that we can look to the Duffing equation to help guide the development of a physical model to describe the long-term X-ray variability of this and other similarly behaved X-ray binary systems.

  14. Intra-Night Variability of OJ 287 with Long-Term Multiband Optical Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zeng

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We present long-term optical multi-band photometric monitoring of the blazar OJ 287 from 6 March 2010 to 3 April 2016, with high temporal resolution in the V R I -bands. The flux variations and colour-magnitude variations on long and short timescales were investigated to understand the emission mechanisms. In our observation, the major outbursts occurred in January 2016, as predicted by the binary pair of black holes model for OJ 287, with F v a r of 1.3∼2.1%, and variability amplitude (Amp of 5.8∼9.0%. The intra-night variability (IDV durations were from 18.5 to 51.3 min, and the minimal variability timescale was about 4.7 min. The colour-magnitude variation showed a weak positive correlation on the long timescale with Pearson’s r = 0 . 450 , while a negative correlation was found on intra-night timescales. We briefly discuss the possible physical mechanisms that are most likely to be responsible for the observed flux and colour-magnitude correlation variability.

  15. Long term natural gas supply in North America: prospects for mexican exports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elizalde Baltierra, A.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work is to discuss the most important factors and uncertainties likely to affect future Mexican natural gas exports to the United States. Firstly, we study the long term natural gas supply/demand balance in North America over the period from 2000 to 2020. Secondly, we analyze the main driving forces determining future natural gas supply and demand in Mexico, which also allows us to discuss the prospects for Mexican gas exports. Finally, our analysis suggests that: in the short and medium term (2000-2010), Mexico will probably continue to increase imports of USA gas in order to satisfy increasing demand and will probably not export large volumes of gas to the USA; in the long term (2020-2020), Mexico could resume exports to the USA in sizeable quantities. Two main conditions appear necessary to resume exports: Premex's budgetary constraints should be relaxed and/or new foreign investment should be able to participate in the Mexican upstream oil and gas sector. (author)

  16. Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

    2012-12-01

    International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

  17. Long-term variabilities of meridional geostrophic volumn transport in North Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, H.; Yuan, D.; Dewar, W. K.

    2016-02-01

    The meridional geostrophic volumn transport (MGVT) by the ocean plays a very important role in the climatic water mass and heat balance because of its large heat capacity which enables the oceans to store the large amount of radiation received in the summer and to release it in winter. Better understanding of the role of the oceans in climate variability is essential to assess the likely range of future climate fluctuations. In the last century the North Pacific Ocean experienced considerable climate variability, especially on decadal time scale. Some studies have shown that the North Pacific Ocean is the origin of North Pacific multidecadal variability (Latif and Barnett, 1994; Barnett et al., 1999). These fluctuations were associated with large anomalies in sea level, temperature, storminess and rainfall, the heat transport and other extremes are changing as well. If the MGVT of the ocean is well-determined, it can be used as a test of the validity of numerical, global climate models. In this paper, we investigate the long-term variability of the MGVT in North Pacific ocean based on 55 years long global ocean heat and salt content data (Levitus et al., 2012). Very clear inter-decadal variations can be seen in tropical , subtropical and subpolar regions of North Pacific Ocean. There are very consistent variations between the MGVT anomalies and the inter-decadal pacific oscillation (IPO) index in the tropical gyre with cold phase of IPO corresponding to negative MGVT anomalies and warm phase corresponding to positive MGVT anomalies. The subtropical gyre shows more complex variations, and the subpolar gyre shows a negative MGVT anomaly before late 1970's and a positive anomaly after that time. The geostrophic velocities of North Pacific Ocean show significantly different anomalies during the two IPO cold phases of 1955-1976 and 1999 to present, which suggests a different mechanism of the two cold phases. The long term variations of Sverdrup transport compares well

  18. Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Giglio

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001–2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997–2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3 estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

  19. Long-term variability of supratidal coastal boulder activation in Brittany (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autret, Ronan; Dodet, Guillaume; Suanez, Serge; Roudaut, Gildas; Fichaut, Bernard

    2018-03-01

    High-energy supratidal coastal boulder deposit (SCBD) dynamics were investigated on Vierge Island and Pors Carn Point, north and south of western Brittany, France, respectively. Morphological changes induced by boulder transport and quarrying were quantified using high-resolution topographic survey data taken between 2012 and 2017. Additional in-situ wave parameters and water levels were also recorded over this period (2014-2017) in order to compute the maximum water levels and assess the relationship between SCBD morphological changes and specific hydrodynamic conditions. During extreme water levels (for maximum water levels exceeding a one in ten year event), SCBDs were broadly reworked (up to 40% of the total volume). During lower intensity events, for which maximum water levels were still very high, morphological changes represented 1% to 5% of the total volume. These morphological and hydrodynamic observations were then used to calibrate a chronology of SCBD activation events based on 70 years of hindcast winter maximum water levels. These long-term time-series showed great interannual variability in SCBD activation but no significant long-term trend. Winter-frequency SCBD activation was better correlated to the WEPA index (r = 0.46) than the NAO index (r = 0.1). Therefore, the WEPA index can be considered to be a more significant climate proxy for assessing storm-related geomorphic changes in the temperate latitudes of the N-E Atlantic basin (36°-52° N), including the Brittany coast. The potential of SCBDs as a morphological storm proxy for macrotidal high-energy rocky coasts is addressed.

  20. Long-term outcome of major depressive disorder in psychiatric patients is variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holma, K Mikael; Holma, Irina A K; Melartin, Tarja K; Rytsälä, Heikki J; Isometsä, Erkki T

    2008-02-01

    The prevailing view of outcome of major depressive disorder (MDD), based on mostly inpatient cohorts sampled from tertiary centers, emphasizes chronicity and frequent recurrences. We investigated the long-term outcome of a regionally representative psychiatric MDD cohort comprising mainly outpatients. The Vantaa Depression Study included 163 patients with DSM-IV MDD (71.5% of those eligible) diagnosed using structured and semistructured interviews and followed up at 6 months, 18 months, and 5 years with a life chart between February 1, 1997, and April 30, 2004. The effects of comorbid disorders and other predictors on outcome were comprehensively investigated. Over the 5-year follow-up, 98.8% of patients achieved a symptom state below major depressive episode (MDE) criteria, and 88.4% reached full remission, with the median time to full remission being 11.0 months. Nearly one third (29.3%) had no recurrences, whereas 30.0% experienced 1, 12.9% experienced 2, and 27.9% experienced 3 or more recurrences. Preceding dysthymic disorder (p = .028), cluster C personality disorder (p = .041), and longer MDE duration prior to entry (p = .011) were the most significant predictors of longer time in achieving full remission. Severity of MDD and comorbidity, especially social phobia, predicted probability of, shorter time to, and number of recurrences. Previous literature on mostly inpatient MDD may have, by generalizing from patients with the most severe psychopathology, overemphasized chronicity of MDD. The long-term outcome of MDD in psychiatric care is variable, with about one tenth of patients having poor, one third having intermediate, and one half having favorable outcomes. In addition to known predictors, cluster C personality disorders and social phobia warrant further attention as predictors of MDD outcome among outpatients.

  1. Modeling techniques for predicting long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Winkle, W.

    1977-01-01

    Appropriate modeling techniques already exist for investigating some long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems, even if to date these techniques have not been used for this purpose. At the low levels of irradiation estimated to occur in natural aquatic systems, effects are difficult to detect at even the individual level much less the population or ecosystem level where the subtle effects of radiation are likely to be completely overshadowed by the effects of other environmental factors and stresses and the natural variability of the system. The claim that population and ecosystem models can be accurate and reliable predictive tools in assessing any stress has been oversold. Nonetheless, the use of these tools can be useful for learning more about the effects of radioactive releases on aquatic populations and ecosystems

  2. Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallis, I.G.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

  3. Natural history of diminutive colorectal polyps: long-term prospective observation by colonoscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Ken-Ichi; Suzuki, Yutaka; Takeuchi, Manabu; Kobayashi, Masaaki; Aoyagi, Yutaka

    2014-04-01

    Endoscopic removal of colorectal adenomatous polyps effectively prevents cancer. However, the treatment strategy for diminutive polyps (diameter ≤ 5 mm) remains controversial. Understanding the natural history of diminutive polyps is a prerequisite to their effective management. We prospectively examined the natural history of diminutive polyps by long-term surveillance colonoscopy. A total of 207 polyps detected in 112 patients from December 1991 through March 2002 were studied. To avoid potential effects on size and morphological characteristics, all polyps were selected randomly and were followed without biopsy. Polyp size was estimated by comparing the lesion with the diameter of a biopsy forceps. Mean follow up was 7.8 years (SD, 4.8; range, 1.0-18.6; median, 7.5; interquartile range 3.4-11.2). Twenty-four polyps were resected endoscopically, and the histopathological diagnosis was mucosal high-grade neoplasia (Category 4) for one polyp, and mucosal low-grade neoplasia (Category 3) for 23 polyps. Mean linear size of the polyps was 3.2 mm (SD, 1.0; range, 1.3-5.0) at initial colonoscopy and 3.8 mm (SD 1.6; range 1.3-10.0) at final colonoscopy (Ppit pattern was associated with a lower growth rate than a type IIIL1 pattern. We clarified the natural history of diminutive polyps by long-term follow-up colonoscopy. The benign course of diminutive polyps should be considered in the design of treatment strategies. © 2014 The Authors. Digestive Endoscopy © 2014 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

  4. Polarization and long-term variability of Sgr A* X-ray echo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churazov, E.; Khabibullin, I.; Ponti, G.; Sunyaev, R.

    2017-06-01

    We use a model of the molecular gas distribution within ˜100 pc from the centre of the Milky Way (Kruijssen, Dale & Longmore) to simulate time evolution and polarization properties of the reflected X-ray emission, associated with the past outbursts from Sgr A*. While this model is too simple to describe the complexity of the true gas distribution, it illustrates the importance and power of long-term observations of the reflected emission. We show that the variable part of X-ray emission observed by Chandra and XMM-Newton from prominent molecular clouds is well described by a pure reflection model, providing strong support of the reflection scenario. While the identification of Sgr A* as a primary source for this reflected emission is already a very appealing hypothesis, a decisive test of this model can be provided by future X-ray polarimetric observations, which will allow placing constraints on the location of the primary source. In addition, X-ray polarimeters (like, e.g. XIPE) have sufficient sensitivity to constrain the line-of-sight positions of molecular complexes, removing major uncertainty in the model.

  5. Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas eVoss

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

  6. Natural Cause Mortality and Long-Term Exposure to Particle Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2015-01-01

    standardized protocol. Annual average concentrations of Copper (Cu), Iron (Fe), Potassium (K), Nickel (Ni), Sulfur (S), Silicon (Si), Vanadium (V) and Zinc (Zn) within PM size fractions PM2.5) and ...-up 14.3 years). Hazard ratios were positive for almost all elements and statistically significant for PM2.5 sulfur (1.14; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.23 per 200 ng/m3). In a two-pollutant model, the association with PM2.5 sulfur was robust to adjustment for PM2.5 mass, whereas the association with PM2.5 mass...... was reduced. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 sulfur was associated with natural cause mortality. This association was robust to adjustment for other pollutants and PM2.5....

  7. Long-term dust aerosol production from natural sources in Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Pavla; Arnalds, Olafur; Olafsson, Haraldur

    2017-02-01

    Iceland is a volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean with maritime climate. In spite of moist climate, large areas are with limited vegetation cover where >40% of Iceland is classified with considerable to very severe erosion and 21% of Iceland is volcanic sandy deserts. Not only do natural emissions from these sources influenced by strong winds affect regional air quality in Iceland ("Reykjavik haze"), but dust particles are transported over the Atlantic ocean and Arctic Ocean >1000 km at times. The aim of this paper is to place Icelandic dust production area into international perspective, present long-term frequency of dust storm events in northeast Iceland, and estimate dust aerosol concentrations during reported dust events. Meteorological observations with dust presence codes and related visibility were used to identify the frequency and the long-term changes in dust production in northeast Iceland. There were annually 16.4 days on average with reported dust observations on weather stations within the northeastern erosion area, indicating extreme dust plume activity and erosion within the northeastern deserts, even though the area is covered with snow during the major part of winter. During the 2000s the highest occurrence of dust events in six decades was reported. We have measured saltation and Aeolian transport during dust/volcanic ash storms in Iceland, which give some of the most intense wind erosion events ever measured. Icelandic dust affects the ecosystems over much of Iceland and causes regional haze. It is likely to affect the ecosystems of the oceans around Iceland, and it brings dust that lowers the albedo of the Icelandic glaciers, increasing melt-off due to global warming. The study indicates that Icelandic dust may contribute to the Arctic air pollution. Long-term records of meteorological dust observations from Northeast Iceland indicate the frequency of dust events from Icelandic deserts. The research involves a 60-year period and

  8. Water quality of the Neuse River, North Carolina - Variability, pollution loads, and long-term trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harned, Doughlas A.

    1982-01-01

    in total organic carbon concentrations, coincide with activation in 1976 of a new waste-water treatment plant for the Raleigh metropolitan area. The amount of dissolved inorganic pollution in the Neuse was determined by subtacting estimated natural loads of dissolved constituents from measured total loads. Pollution makes up approximately 50 percent of the total dissolved material transported by the Neuse. Two different data transformation methods allowed trends to be identified in constituent concentrations. Both methods recomputed concentrations as if they were determined at a constant discharge over the period of record. Although little change since 1956 can be seen in many constituents, increases of over 50 percent are shown for potassium and sulfate concentrations. These long-term rises indicate the increasing impact that man has had on the Neuse River, in spite of improved waste-water treatment in the basin. The increase in sulfate is probably largely due to increased long-term imputs of sulfur compounds from acid precipitation.

  9. Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

  10. Long-term assessment of natural attenuation: statistical approach on soils with aged PAH contamination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouvrard, Stéphanie; Chenot, Elodie-Denise; Masfaraud, Jean-François; Schwartz, Christophe

    2013-07-01

    Natural attenuation processes valorization for PAH-contaminated soil remediation has gained increasing interest from site owners. A misunderstanding of this method and a small amount of data available does not encourage its development. However, monitored natural attenuation (MNA) offers a valuable, cheaper and environmentally friendly alternative to more classical options such as physico-chemical treatments (e.g., chemical oxidation, thermal desorption). The present work proposes the results obtained during a long-term natural attenuation assessment of historically contaminated industrial soils under real climatic conditions. This study was performed after a 10 year natural attenuation period on 60 off-ground lysimeters filled with contaminated soils from different former industrial sites (coking industry, manufactured gas plants) whose initial concentration of PAH varied between 380 and 2,077 mg kg(-1). The analysed parameters included leached water characterization, soil PAH concentrations, evaluation of vegetation cover quality and quantity. Results showed a good efficiency of the PAH dissipation and limited transfer of contaminants to the environment. It also highlighted the importance of the fine soil fractions in controlling PAH reactivity. PAH dissipation through water leaching was limited and did not present a significant risk for the environment. This PAH water concentration appeared however as a good indicator of overall dissipation rate, thereby illustrating the importance of pollutant availability in predicting its degradation potential.

  11. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2018-01-01

    LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

  12. A neural interface provides long-term stable natural touch perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Daniel W; Schiefer, Matthew A; Keith, Michael W; Anderson, James Robert; Tyler, Joyce; Tyler, Dustin J

    2014-10-08

    Touch perception on the fingers and hand is essential for fine motor control, contributes to our sense of self, allows for effective communication, and aids in our fundamental perception of the world. Despite increasingly sophisticated mechatronics, prosthetic devices still do not directly convey sensation back to their wearers. We show that implanted peripheral nerve interfaces in two human subjects with upper limb amputation provided stable, natural touch sensation in their hands for more than 1 year. Electrical stimulation using implanted peripheral nerve cuff electrodes that did not penetrate the nerve produced touch perceptions at many locations on the phantom hand with repeatable, stable responses in the two subjects for 16 and 24 months. Patterned stimulation intensity produced a sensation that the subjects described as natural and without "tingling," or paresthesia. Different patterns produced different types of sensory perception at the same location on the phantom hand. The two subjects reported tactile perceptions they described as natural tapping, constant pressure, light moving touch, and vibration. Changing average stimulation intensity controlled the size of the percept area; changing stimulation frequency controlled sensation strength. Artificial touch sensation improved the subjects' ability to control grasping strength of the prosthesis and enabled them to better manipulate delicate objects. Thus, electrical stimulation through peripheral nerve electrodes produced long-term sensory restoration after limb loss. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  13. Long-Term Trend and Seasonal Variability of Horizontal Visibility in Nigerian Troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtar Balarabe

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A study of the long-term variability; trend and characteristics of visibility in four zones of Nigeria was carried out. Visibility and other meteorological data from NOAA-NCDC and aerosol index data over Nigeria during 1984–2013 are analyzed using time series and  simple regression model. There are significant decreasing trends for every region and season during the 30-years period; the fluctuations exhibited nearly similar pattern. The 30-year mean visibilities for the four zones (Sahel; North Central; Southern; and Coastal were 13.8 ± 3.9; 14.3 ± 4.2; 13.6 ± 3.5 and 12.8 ± 3.1 km with decreasing trends at the rates of 0.08; 0.06; 0.02 and 0.02 km/year. In all the zones; visibilities were better in summer while worse in Harmattan (dry season. During summer visibility was best in Sahel and North-central; however; in Harmattan visibility was best in southern and coastal zones. It was best between May and June (17.6; 18.9; 16.6 and 15.1 km with a second peak in September. The 30-year seasonal averages were 16.2 ± 2.1; 16.8 ± 2.4; 15.4 ± 1.8 and 14.0 ± 2.2 km in summer; and 10.2 ± 2.5; 10.9 ± 2.9; 11.0 ± 3.3 and 11.4 ± 3.0 km in Harmattan for the respective zones. Sahel and North Central had the worse visibility reduction during Harmattan compared with Southern and coastal areas. An analysis based on simple regression equation reveals a strong and negative relationship between visibility on one hand; AI; and AOD on the other hand. The analysis also discusses the variability regarding the frequency of occurrence of a dust storm; dust haze; and good visibility over the period of study.

  14. Natural analogs of the long-term performance of engineered covers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waugh, W.J.; Petersen, K.L.; Link, S.O.; Bjornstad, B.N.; Gee, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    The unprecedented legislative demand that in-situ waste-disposal facilities effectively persist indefinitely requires a performance assessment approach that exceeds standard engineering practices and incorporates possible long-term changes in site hydrology, geology, and ecology. Even in relatively arid regions, over time, buried waste will be vulnerable to transport via rainwater percolation, gas diffusion, erosion, and intrusion by plant roots, burrowing animals, and humans. Standard models and field tests of engineered covers designed to impede these pathways implicitly and erroneously assume that initial conditions of many key determinants will persist indefinitely. Evidence from natural, archaeological, and engineered analogs is needed (1) to identify and understand emergent system attributes that cannot be captured with computer models or short-term experiments, and (2) to develop modeling and field tests that reasonably bound possible future changes in waste-site environments. Analogs of local responses to future global climate change exist as proxy ecological and archaeological records of similar paleoclimates. Future pedogenic influences can be inferred form measurements of key soil properties in natural and archaeological soil profiles analogous to engineered covers. Many cover designs depend on water extraction by plants. Influences of vegetation change can be inferred by measuring water extraction parameters in plant communities representing successional chronosequences. Habitats similar to those created on waste sites provide evidence of the potential for biological intrusion. Recent and ancient man-made structures provide evidence of the future stability of waste-site covers and of features that may discourage human intrusion. 108 refs., 4 figs

  15. Natural analogue studies for the long-term safety of radioactive waste disposal. Lessons learned from the nature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusa, Yasuhisa

    2002-01-01

    'Natural analogues' can be defined as the processes or materials analogous to those operating in the geological disposal system of radioactive waste. Natural analogue studies provide the only means by which long-term data can be obtained under the real natural conditions, and also the most convincing support to the long-term performance assessment of the geological disposal system. The framework of our natural analogue studies concerning the stability of the engineered barrier materials for geological disposal system of high-level radioactive waste is reviewed. One of the results is that the volcanic glass included in a clay bed did not alter during the past one million years. The Tono Uranium Deposits are studied as geochemical analogues of radioactive waste disposal in Japan. We conclude that although the deposits have been subjected to a variety of geological processes and events such as faulting, erosion and uplift/subsidence, the reducing condition has been maintained and uranium has not migrated for at least the past ten million years. Application and further development of the natural analogue studies are also discussed. (author)

  16. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  17. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  18. Long-term variability and environmental control of the carbon cycle in an oak-dominated temperate forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing Xie; Jiquan Chen; Ge Sun; Housen Chu; Asko Noormets; Zutao Ouyang; Ranjeet John; Shiqiang Wan; Wenbin Guan

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the long-term carbon (C) cycle of temperate deciduous forests and its sensitivity to climate variability is limited due to the large temporal dynamics of C fluxes. The goal of the study was to quantify the effects of environmental variables on the C balance in a 70-year-old mixed-oak woodland forest over a 7-year period in northwest Ohio, USA. The...

  19. Variability in Hurricane Boundary Layer Characteristics Observed in a Long-Term Noaa Dropsonde Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Figure 6. Schematic of the NCAR GPS dropsonde identifying vital capabilities, components, and subsystems (From EOL 2014a...Archive in EOL sounding files (from Y13). ................21 Figure 9. The relative frequency of tropical cyclone categories sampled in the Long- Term...inscribed concentric circle corresponds to a radial grid increment of 200 km. Each blue point indicates the EOL estimate for dropsonde position after a

  20. Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

    OpenAIRE

    Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Pavla; Arnalds, Olafur; Ólafsson, Haraldur

    2014-01-01

    The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the n...

  1. Long-term variability and impact on human health of biologically active UV radiation in Moscow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhdanova, Ekaterina; Chubarova, Natalia

    2014-05-01

    the developed classification for Moscow. Booth, C.R. and S. Madronich, 1994: Radiation amplification factors: improved formulation accounts for large increases in ultraviolet radiation associated with Antarctic ozone depletion. In: Ultraviolet Radiation in Antarctica: Measurements and Biological Research [Weiler, C.S. and P.A. Penhale (eds.)]. AGU Antarctic Research Series, 62, Washington, DC, USA, 39-42. Chubarova N.Y., 2008: UV variability in Moscow according to long-term UV measurements and reconstruction model. Atmos.Chem.Phys., 8, 3025-3031 Oriowo, M. et al., 2001:, Action spectrum for in vitro UV-induced cataract using whole lenses. Invest.Ophthalmol.&Vis.Sci, 42, 2596-2602. CIE, 1993: Reference Action Spectra for Ultraviolet Induced Erythema and Pigmentation of Different Human skin Types. CIE Research Note, CIE Technical Collection., N.3 CIE, 2006: Action spectrum for the production of previtamin D3 in human skin, Technical report 174, International commission on illumination

  2. Spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of ocean acidification in the California Current System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hauri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to seasonal upwelling, the upper ocean waters of the California Current System (CCS have a naturally low pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag, making this region particularly prone to the effects of ocean acidification. Here, we use the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS to conduct preindustrial and transient (1995–2050 simulations of ocean biogeochemistry in the CCS. The transient simulations were forced with increasing atmospheric pCO2 and increasing oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations at the lateral boundaries, as projected by the NCAR CSM 1.4 model for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Our results show a large seasonal variability in pH (range of ~ 0.14 and Ωarag (~ 0.2 for the nearshore areas (50 km from shore. This variability is created by the interplay of physical and biogeochemical processes. Despite this large variability, we find that present-day pH and Ωarag have already moved outside of their simulated preindustrial variability envelopes (defined by ±1 temporal standard deviation due to the rapidly increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The nearshore surface pH of the northern and central CCS are simulated to move outside of their present-day variability envelopes by the mid-2040s and late 2030s, respectively. This transition may occur even earlier for nearshore surface Ωarag, which is projected to depart from its present-day variability envelope by the early- to mid-2030s. The aragonite saturation horizon of the central CCS is projected to shoal into the upper 75 m within the next 25 yr, causing near-permanent undersaturation in subsurface waters. Due to the model's overestimation of Ωarag, this transition may occur even earlier than simulated by the model. Overall, our study shows that the CCS joins the Arctic and Southern oceans as one of only a few known ocean regions presently approaching the dual threshold of

  3. Long-term changes and spatio-temporal variability of the growing season temperature in Europe during the last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiot, Joel; Corona, Christophe

    2010-05-01

    A gridded reconstruction of April to September temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen and ice cores. The majority of the proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variations, they were completed by number of low resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data. An original spectral analogue method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and especially to preserve the long-term variations and the variability of the temperature series. It is the condition is to make pertinent the comparison of the recent climate changes to a broader context of 1400 years. The reconstruction of the April-September temperature was validated with a Jack-knife technique, and it was also compared with other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings. We found that (1) our results are sound back to A.D. 750; (2) conditions during the last decade have exceeded all those known during the last millennium; (3) before the 20th century, cold periods can partly be explained by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity and that Medieval Warm Period (MWP) is consistent with a high solar activity; (4) during the 20th century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise; (5) based on an analysis of the distribution of extreme temperatures, the maximum event of the Medieval Period (1.1°C higher than the 1960-1990 reference period) had a return period of more than 1000 years, but this recently fell to less than 26 years; (6) all decades before AD 1350 were warm on average but relatively heterogeneous, while the last decade was homogeneously warmer. These results support the fact that we are facing an unprecedented changing climate in Europe unlike any known

  4. Characterization of EIAV LTR variability and compartmentalization in various reservoir tissues of long-term inapparent carrier ponies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reis, Jenner K.P.; Craigo, Jodi K.; Cook, Sheila J.; Issel, Charles J.; Montelaro, Ronald C.

    2003-01-01

    Dynamic genomic variation resulting in changes in envelope antigenicity has been established as a fundamental mechanism of persistence by equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV), as observed with other lentiviruses, including HIV-1. In addition to the reported changes in envelope sequences, however, certain studies indicate the viral LTR as a second variable EIAV gene, with the enhancer region being designated as hypervariable. These observations have lead to the suggestion that LTR variation may alter viral replication properties to optimize to the microenvironment of particular tissue reservoirs. To test this hypothesis directly, we examined the population of LTR quasispecies contained in various tissues of two inapparent carrier ponies experimentally infected with a reference EIAV biological clone for 18 months. The results of these studies demonstrated that the EIAV LTR is in fact highly conserved with respect to the infecting LTR species after 1.5 years of persistent infection and regardless of the tissue reservoir. Thus, these comprehensive analyses demonstrate for the first time that the EIAV LTR is highly conserved during long-term persistent infection and that the observed variations in viral LTR are associated more with in vitro adaptation to replication in cultured cells rather than in vivo replication in natural target cells

  5. Analysis on Japan's long-term energy outlook considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy under nuclear energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 considering massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and wind power generation under nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident which has increased the uncertainty of future additional construction of nuclear power plant in Japan. On these backgrounds, we develop integrated energy assessment model comprised of both econometric energy demand and supply model and optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewable in detailed time resolution at 10 minutes on consecutive 365 days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. Simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuation derived from high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology and the output suppression of PV and wind power. The results show as well that massive penetration of the renewables does not necessarily require the comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, on the scenario which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants which lifetime are over 40 years, required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double of PV installment potential in both building and abandoned farmland area. (author)

  6. Blocking Synaptic Removal of GluA2-Containing AMPA Receptors Prevents the Natural Forgetting of Long-Term Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migues, Paola Virginia; Liu, Lidong; Archbold, Georgina E B; Einarsson, Einar Ö; Wong, Jacinda; Bonasia, Kyra; Ko, Seung Hyun; Wang, Yu Tian; Hardt, Oliver

    2016-03-23

    The neurobiological processes underpinning the natural forgetting of long-term memories are poorly understood. Based on the critical role of GluA2-containing AMPA receptors (GluA2/AMPARs) in long-term memory persistence, we tested in rats whether their synaptic removal underpins time-dependent memory loss. We found that blocking GluA2/AMPAR removal with the interference peptides GluA23Y or G2CT in the dorsal hippocampus during a memory retention interval prevented the normal forgetting of established, long-term object location memories, but did not affect their acquisition. The same intervention also preserved associative memories of food-reward conditioned place preference that would otherwise be lost over time. We then explored whether this forgetting process could play a part in behavioral phenomena involving time-dependent memory change. We found that infusing GluA23Y into the dorsal hippocampus during a 2 week retention interval blocked generalization of contextual fear expression, whereas infusing it into the infralimbic cortex after extinction of auditory fear prevented spontaneous recovery of the conditioned response. Exploring possible physiological mechanisms that could be involved in this form of memory decay, we found that bath application of GluA23Y prevented depotentiation, but not induction of long-term potentiation, in a hippocampal slice preparation. Together, these findings suggest that a decay-like forgetting process that involves the synaptic removal of GluA2/AMPARs erases consolidated long-term memories in the hippocampus and other brain structures over time. This well regulated forgetting process may critically contribute to establishing adaptive behavior, whereas its dysregulation could promote the decline of memory and cognition in neuropathological disorders. The neurobiological mechanisms involved in the natural forgetting of long-term memory and its possible functions are not fully understood. Based on our previous work describing the

  7. Short-Term and Long-Term Biological Effects of Chronic Chemical Contamination on Natural Populations of a Marine Bivalve.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marine Breitwieser

    Full Text Available Understanding the effects of chronic chemical contamination on natural populations of marine organisms is complex due to the combined effects of different types of pollutants and environmental parameters that can modulate the physiological responses to stress. Here, we present the effects of a chronic contamination in a marine bivalve by combining multiple approaches that provide information on individual and population health. We sampled variegated scallops (Mimachlamys varia at sites characterized by different contaminants and contamination levels to study the short and long-term (intergenerational responses of this species to physiological stress. We used biomarkers (SOD, MDA, GST, laccase, citrate synthase and phosphatases as indicators of oxidative stress, immune system alteration, mitochondrial respiration and general metabolism, and measured population genetic diversity at each site. In parallel, concentration of 14 trace metals and 45 organic contaminants (PAHs, PCBs, pesticides in tissues were measured. Scallops were collected outside and during their reproductive season to investigate temporal variability in contaminant and biomarker levels. Our analyses revealed that the levels of two biomarkers (Laccase-type phenoloxidase and malondialdehyde were significantly correlated with Cd concentration. Additionally, we observed significant seasonal differences for four of the five biomarkers, which is likely due to the scallop reproductive status at time of sampling. As a source of concern, a location that was identified as a reference site on the basis of inorganic contaminant levels presented the same level of some persistent organic pollutants (DDT and its metabolites than more impacted sites. Finally, potential long-term effects of heavy metal contamination were observed for variegated scallops as genetic diversity was depressed in the most polluted sites.

  8. Short-Term and Long-Term Biological Effects of Chronic Chemical Contamination on Natural Populations of a Marine Bivalve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breitwieser, Marine; Viricel, Amélia; Graber, Marianne; Murillo, Laurence; Becquet, Vanessa; Churlaud, Carine; Fruitier-Arnaudin, Ingrid; Huet, Valérie; Lacroix, Camille; Pante, Eric; Le Floch, Stéphane; Thomas-Guyon, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the effects of chronic chemical contamination on natural populations of marine organisms is complex due to the combined effects of different types of pollutants and environmental parameters that can modulate the physiological responses to stress. Here, we present the effects of a chronic contamination in a marine bivalve by combining multiple approaches that provide information on individual and population health. We sampled variegated scallops (Mimachlamys varia) at sites characterized by different contaminants and contamination levels to study the short and long-term (intergenerational) responses of this species to physiological stress. We used biomarkers (SOD, MDA, GST, laccase, citrate synthase and phosphatases) as indicators of oxidative stress, immune system alteration, mitochondrial respiration and general metabolism, and measured population genetic diversity at each site. In parallel, concentration of 14 trace metals and 45 organic contaminants (PAHs, PCBs, pesticides) in tissues were measured. Scallops were collected outside and during their reproductive season to investigate temporal variability in contaminant and biomarker levels. Our analyses revealed that the levels of two biomarkers (Laccase-type phenoloxidase and malondialdehyde) were significantly correlated with Cd concentration. Additionally, we observed significant seasonal differences for four of the five biomarkers, which is likely due to the scallop reproductive status at time of sampling. As a source of concern, a location that was identified as a reference site on the basis of inorganic contaminant levels presented the same level of some persistent organic pollutants (DDT and its metabolites) than more impacted sites. Finally, potential long-term effects of heavy metal contamination were observed for variegated scallops as genetic diversity was depressed in the most polluted sites.

  9. The Solar Neighborhood. XLI. A Study of the Wide Main Sequence for M Dwarfs—Long-term Photometric Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clements, Tiffany D.; Jao, Wei-Chun; Silverstein, Michele L. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States); Henry, Todd J.; Hosey, Altonio D. [RECONS Institute, Chambersburg, PA 17201 (United States); Winters, Jennifer G. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Dieterich, Sergio B. [Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC 20015 (United States); Riedel, Adric R., E-mail: pewett@astro.gsu.edu, E-mail: jao@astro.gsu.edu, E-mail: silverstein@astro.gsu.edu, E-mail: toddhenry28@gmail.com, E-mail: altoniohosey@gmail.com, E-mail: jennifer.winters@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: sdieterich@carnegiescience.edu, E-mail: adric.riedel@gmail.com [Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2017-09-01

    We report findings from a long-term photometric variability study of M dwarfs carried out at the SMARTS 0.9 m telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. As part of a multi-faceted effort to investigate the range of luminosities of M dwarfs of a given color on the Hertzsprung–Russell Diagram, 76 M dwarfs have been observed for 3–17 years in the Johnson–Kron–Cousins V band. We find that stars elevated above the center of the main sequence distribution tend to have higher levels of variability, likely caused by magnetic activity, than their fainter counterparts below the center. This study provides insight into how the long-term magnetic activity of these stars may be affecting their sizes, luminosities, and thus positions on the H-R Diagram.

  10. Natural variation in long-term memory formation among Nasonia parasitic wasp species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoedjes, K.M.; Smid, H.M.

    2014-01-01

    Closely related species of parasitic wasps can differ substantially in memory dynamics. In this study we demonstrate differences in the number of conditioning trials required to form long-term memory between the closely related parasitic wasp species Nasonia vitripennis and Nasonia giraulti

  11. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  12. The driving forces of stability. Exploring the nature of long-term bureaucracy-interest group interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braun, C.H.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    This article explores the nature of long-term interactions between bureaucrats and interest groups by examining two behavioral logics associated with stability in public policy making. In addition to the implicit short-term strategic choices that usually feature in resource-exchange explanations of

  13. Sustainability and Substitution of Exhaustible Natural Resources : How Resource Prices Affect Long-Term R&D Investments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bretschger, L.; Smulders, J.A.

    2003-01-01

    Traditional resource economics has been criticised for assuming too high elasticities of substitution, not observing material balance principles and relying too much on planner solutions to obtain long-term growth.By analysing a multi-sector R&D based endogenous growth model with exhaustible natural

  14. The long-term variability of cosmic ray protons in the heliosphere: A modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S. Potgieter

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Galactic cosmic rays are charged particles created in our galaxy and beyond. They propagate through interstellar space to eventually reach the heliosphere and Earth. Their transport in the heliosphere is subjected to four modulation processes: diffusion, convection, adiabatic energy changes and particle drifts. Time-dependent changes, caused by solar activity which varies from minimum to maximum every ∼11 years, are reflected in cosmic ray observations at and near Earth and along spacecraft trajectories. Using a time-dependent compound numerical model, the time variation of cosmic ray protons in the heliosphere is studied. It is shown that the modeling approach is successful and can be used to study long-term modulation cycles.

  15. Long-Term Natural History of Adult Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome Patients Treated With and Without Catheter Ablation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunch, T Jared; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler, Michael J; Jacobs, Victoria; Mallender, Charles; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Weiss, J Peter; Day, John D

    2015-12-01

    There are a paucity of data about the long-term natural history of adult Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW) patients in regard to risk of mortality and atrial fibrillation. We sought to describe the long-term outcomes of WPW patients and ascertain the impact of ablation on the natural history. Three groups of patients were studied: 2 WPW populations (ablation: 872, no ablation: 1461) and a 1:5 control population (n=11 175). Long-term mortality and atrial fibrillation rates were determined. The average follow-up for the WPW group was 7.9±5.9 (median: 6.9) years and was similar between the ablation and nonablation groups. Death rates were similar between the WPW group versus the control group (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.11; P=0.56). Nonablated WPW patients had a higher long-term death risk compared with ablated WPW patients (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval: 1.50-20.93; P<0.0001). Incident atrial fibrillation risk was higher in the WPW group compared with the control population (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-1.87; P<0.0001). Nonablated WPW patients had lower risk than ablated patients (hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.53; P<0.0001). Long-term mortality rates in WPW patients are low and similar to an age-matched and gender-matched control population. WPW patients that underwent the multifactorial process of ablation had a lower mortality compared to nonablated WPW patients. Atrial fibrillation rates are high long-term, and ablation does not reduce this risk. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  16. The Natural Gas Dilemma in New England's Electricity Sector: Experts' Perspectives on Long Term Climate Issues and Policy Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Steven

    This thesis is an interpretive analysis of experts' perspectives on the climate implications of New England's reliance on natural gas for electricity generation. Specifically, this research, conducted through interviews and literature review, examines experts' opinions on the desired role of natural gas within the regional electricity sector, alternative energy resources, and state and regional policy opportunities toward the achievement of New England's ambitious long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals. Experts expressed concern about the climate dilemma posed by a dependence on natural gas. However, interviews revealed that short-term reliability and cost considerations are paramount for many experts, and therefore a reliance on natural gas is the existing reality. To incentivize renewable generation technologies for the purposes of long-term climate stabilization, experts advocated for the expanded implementation of renewable portfolio standard, net metering, and feed-in tariff policies. More broadly, interviewees expressed the need for an array of complementary state and regional policies.

  17. What factors influence the effectiveness of financial incentives on long-term natural resource management practice change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Swann

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial incentives are used by natural resource management organisations to encourage landholders to adopt sustainable practices where the outcomes on a farm scale may be negative or marginal. There is a growing body of research aimed at understanding why landholders do or do not agree to participate in financial incentive programs, however research that considers when and how financial incentives work to bring about long-term behaviour change is relatively immature. The purpose of this review is to answer the question ‘What factors influence the effectiveness of financial incentives on long-term natural resource management practice change?’ In synthesising the evidence, it was found that there are numerous characteristics of the practice change itself, along with the program design and implementation, which are important to understand long-term behaviour change. These include whether inexpensive maintenance or long-term funding is available; whether the changes are relatively simple to sustain; whether the program involves structural changes; whether there is land use rigidity; and whether the changes have resulting environmental benefits that are highly observable. Additionally, it is advisable for programs that use financial incentives to include the following program features: ongoing extension support and a focus on building relationship and trust; flexibility in how the practice change is applied; active landholder involvement from planning to evaluation; and contract length that is appropriate for the complexity of the NRM practice. These characteristics can be used to guide policy makers in their natural resource management investment decisions. There is a clear need for greatly increased monitoring and evaluation of existing programs, both during the program and after its conclusion, in order to more fully understand its long-term impacts and ultimate effectiveness. Finally, landholders undertaking a practice change generally

  18. Long-term relationships of major macro-variables in a resource-related economic model of Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, Charles; Hoa, T. van

    1993-01-01

    The paper reports the results of a simple cointegration analysis applied to bivariate causality models using data on resource output, oil prices, terms of trade, current account and output growth to investigate the long-term relationships among these major macroeconomic aggregates in a resource-related economic model of Australia. For the period 1960-1990, the empirical evidence indicates that these five macro-variables, as formulated in our model, are not random walks. In addition, resource production and oil prices are significantly cointegrated, and they are also significantly cointegrated with the current account, terms of trade and economic growth. These findings provide support to the long-term adjustments foundation of our resource-related model. (author)

  19. [Short-term and long-term fetal heart rate variability after amnioinfusion treatment of oligohydramnios complicated pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machalski, T; Sikora, J; Bakon, I; Magnucki, J; Grzesiak-Kubica, E; Szkodny, E

    2001-12-01

    Results of computerised analysis of cardiotocograms obtained in the group of 21 pregnancies complicated by idiopathic oligohydramnios are presented in the study. Amnioinfusion procedures were administered serially in local anesthesia with ultrasound and colour Doppler control on the base of oligohydramnios criteria by Phelan. The analysis was based on KOMPOR software created by ITAM Zabrze based on PC computer connected to Hewlett-Packard Series 50A cardiotocograph. Significant short-term variability increase just after amnioinfusion procedure from 5.55 ms to 8.24 ms and after 24 hours up to 7.25 ms was found, while significant long-term variability values changes were not observed.

  20. Long term ice sheet mass change rates and inter-annual variability from GRACE gravimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harig, C.

    2017-12-01

    The GRACE time series of gravimetry now stretches 15 years since its launch in 2002. Here we use Slepian functions to estimate the long term ice mass trends of Greenland, Antarctica, and several glaciated regions. The spatial representation shows multi-year to decadal regional shifts in accelerations, in agreement with increases in radar derived ice velocity. Interannual variations in ice mass are of particular interest since they can directly link changes in ice sheets to the drivers of change in the polar ocean and atmosphere. The spatial information retained in Slepian functions provides a tool to determine how this link varies in different regions within an ice sheet. We present GRACE observations of the 2013-2014 slowdown in mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which was concentrated in specific parts of the ice sheet and in certain months of the year. We also discuss estimating the relative importance of climate factors that control ice mass balance, as a function of location of the glacier/ice cap as well as the spatial variation within an ice sheet by comparing gravimetry with observations of surface air temperature, ocean temperature, etc. as well as model data from climate reanalysis products.

  1. Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.

    2014-12-01

    The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the number of dust events fourfold (135 dust days annually). The position of the Icelandic Low determined whether dust events occurred in the NE (16.4 dust days annually) or in the southern (S) part of Iceland (about 18 dust days annually). The decade with the most frequent dust days in S Iceland was the 1960s, but the 2000s in NE Iceland. A total of 32 severe dust storms (visibility typically warm, occurring during summer/autumn (May-September) and during mild southwesterly winds, while the subarctic dust events (S Iceland) were mainly cold, occurring during winter/spring (March-May) and during strong northeasterly winds. About half of the dust events in S Iceland occurred in winter or at sub-zero temperatures. A good correlation was found between particulate matter (PM10) concentrations and visibility during dust observations at the stations Vík and Stórhöfði. This study shows that Iceland is among the dustiest areas of the world and that dust is emitted year-round.

  2. Seasonal, interannual, and long-term variabilities in biomass burning activity over South Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, P; Naja, M; Kumar, R; Chandola, H C

    2016-03-01

    The seasonal, interannual, and long-term variations in biomass burning activity and related emissions are not well studied over South Asia. In this regard, active fire location retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS Terra, and tropospheric column NO2 from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are used to understand the effects of biomass burning on the tropospheric pollution loadings over South Asia during 2003-2013. Biomass burning emission estimates from Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) and Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) are also used to quantify uncertainties and regional discrepancies in the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and black carbon (BC) due to biomass burning in South Asia. In the Asian continent, the frequency of fire activity is highest over Southeast Asia, followed by South Asia and East Asia. The biomass burning activity in South Asia shows a distinct seasonal cycle that peaks during February-May with some differences among four (north, central, northeast, and south) regions in India. The annual biomass burning activity in north, central, and south regions shows an increasing tendency, particularly after 2008, while a decrease is seen in northeast region during 2003-2013. The increase in fire counts over the north and central regions contributes 24 % of the net enhancement in fire counts over South Asia. MODIS AOD and OMI tropospheric column NO2 retrievals are classified into high and low fire activity periods and show that biomass burning leads to significant enhancement in tropospheric pollution loading over both the cropland and forest regions. The enhancement is much higher (110-176 %) over the forest region compared to the cropland (34-62 %) region. Further efforts are required to understand the implications of biomass burning on the regional air quality and climate of South Asia.

  3. Demographic and placement variables associated with overweight and obesity in children in long-term foster care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderman, Janet U; Arnold-Clark, Janet S; Smith, Caitlin; Duan, Lei; Fuentes, Jorge

    2013-11-01

    Overweight and obesity is a growing problem for children in foster care. This study describes the prevalence of overweight and obesity in an urban, ethnic minority population of children ages 2-19 in long-term foster care (N = 312) in Los Angeles, California. It also investigates whether demographics or placement settings are related to high body mass index. The estimates of prevalence of overweight/obesity (≥85th percentile) and obesity (≥95th percentile) were presented for gender, age, ethnicity, and placement type. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine potential associations between demographic and placement variables and weight status. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was almost 40 % and obesity was 23 % for the study population. Children placed in a group home had the highest prevalence of overweight/obesity (60 %) and obesity (43 %) compared to other types of placement. Within this study, older children (ages 12-19) were more likely to be overweight/obese than normal weight compared to children between 2 and 5 years old when controlling for gender, ethnicity and placement (OR = 2.10, CI = 1.14-3.87). These findings suggest that older age and long-term foster care in general may be risk factors for obesity. Child welfare agencies and health care providers need to work together to train caregivers with children in long-term foster care in obesity treatment interventions and obesity prevention strategies.

  4. Immersion-scanning-tunneling-microscope for long-term variable-temperature experiments at liquid-solid interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochs, Oliver; Heckl, Wolfgang M.; Lackinger, Markus

    2018-05-01

    Fundamental insights into the kinetics and thermodynamics of supramolecular self-assembly on surfaces are uniquely gained by variable-temperature high-resolution Scanning-Tunneling-Microscopy (STM). Conventionally, these experiments are performed with standard ambient microscopes extended with heatable sample stages for local heating. However, unavoidable solvent evaporation sets a technical limit on the duration of these experiments, hence prohibiting long-term experiments. These, however, would be highly desirable to provide enough time for temperature stabilization and settling of drift but also to study processes with inherently slow kinetics. To overcome this dilemma, we propose a STM that can operate fully immersed in solution. The instrument is mounted onto the lid of a hermetically sealed heatable container that is filled with the respective solution. By closing the container, both the sample and microscope are immersed in solution. Thereby solvent evaporation is eliminated and an environment for long-term experiments with utmost stable and controllable temperatures between room-temperature and 100 °C is provided. Important experimental requirements for the immersion-STM and resulting design criteria are discussed, the strategy for protection against corrosive media is described, the temperature stability and drift behavior are thoroughly characterized, and first long-term high resolution experiments at liquid-solid interfaces are presented.

  5. Long-term Observations of Intense Precipitation Small-scale Spatial Variability in a Semi-arid Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

  6. Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

  7. Long-term trend and variability of atmospheric PM10 concentration in the Po Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigi, A.; Ghermandi, G.

    2014-05-01

    The limits to atmospheric pollutant concentration set by the European Commission provide a challenging target for the municipalities in the Po Valley, because of the characteristic climatic conditions and high population density of this region. In order to assess climatology and trends in the concentration of atmospheric particles in the Po Valley, a data set of PM10 data from 41 sites across the Po Valley have been analysed, including both traffic and background sites (either urban, suburban or rural). Of these 41 sites, 18 with 10 yr or longer record have been analysed for long-term trend in deseasonalized monthly means, in annual quantiles and in monthly frequency distribution. A widespread significant decreasing trend has been observed at most sites, up to a few percent per year, by a generalized least squares and Theil-Sen method. All 41 sites have been tested for significant weekly periodicity by Kruskal-Wallis test for mean anomalies and by Wilcoxon test for weekend effect magnitude. A significant weekly periodicity has been observed for most PM10 series, particularly in summer and ascribed mainly to anthropic particulate emissions. A cluster analysis has been applied in order to highlight stations sharing similar pollution conditions over the reference period. Five clusters have been found, two encompassing the metropolitan areas of Turin and Milan and their respective nearby sites and the other three clusters gathering northeast, northwest and central Po Valley sites respectively. Finally, the observed trends in atmospheric PM10 have been compared to trends in provincial emissions of particulates and PM precursors, and analysed along with data on vehicular fleet age, composition and fuel sales. A significant basin-wide drop in emissions occurred for gaseous pollutants, contrarily to emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, whose drop was low and restricted to a few provinces. It is not clear whether the decrease for only gaseous emissions is sufficient to explain the

  8. Mechanisms of long-term mean sea level variability in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Calafat, Francisco; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Richter, Kristin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    We examine mean sea level (MSL) variations in the North Sea on timescales ranging from months to decades under the consideration of different forcing factors since the late 19th century. We use multiple linear regression models, which are validated for the second half of the 20th century against the output of a state-of-the-art tide+surge model (HAMSOM), to determine the barotropic response of the ocean to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. We demonstrate that local atmospheric forcing mainly triggers MSL variability on timescales up to a few years, with the inverted barometric effect dominating the variability along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind (piling up the water along the coast) controlling the MSL variability in the south from Belgium up to Denmark. However, in addition to the large inter-annual sea level variability there is also a considerable fraction of decadal scale variability. We show that on decadal timescales MSL variability in the North Sea mainly reflects steric changes, which are mostly remotely forced. A spatial correlation analysis of altimetry observations and baroclinic ocean model outputs suggests evidence for a coherent signal extending from the Norwegian shelf down to the Canary Islands. This supports the theory of longshore wind forcing along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic causing coastally trapped waves to propagate along the continental slope. With a combination of oceanographic and meteorological measurements we demonstrate that ~80% of the decadal sea level variability in the North Sea can be explained as response of the ocean to longshore wind forcing, including boundary wave propagation in the Northeast Atlantic. These findings have important implications for (i) detecting significant accelerations in North Sea MSL, (ii) the conceptual set up of regional ocean models in terms of resolution and boundary conditions, and (iii) the development of adequate and realistic regional climate change projections.

  9. Understanding the Long-Term Spectral Variability of Cygnus X-1 from BATSE and ASM Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zdziarski, Andrzej A.; Poutanen, Juri; Paciesas, William S.; Wen, Linqing; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We present a spectral analysis of observations of Cygnus X-1 by the RXTE/ASM (1.5-12 keV) and CGRO/BATSE (20-300 keV), including about 1200 days of simultaneous data. We find a number of correlations between intensities and hardnesses in different energy bands from 1.5 keV to 300 keV. In the hard (low) spectral state, there is a negative correlation between the ASM 1.5-12 keV flux and the hardness at any energy. In the soft (high) spectral state, the ASM flux is positively correlated with the ASM hardness (as previously reported) but uncorrelated with the BATSE hardness. In both spectral states, the BATSE hardness correlates with the flux above 100 keV, while it shows no correlation with the flux in the 20-100 keV range. At the same time, there is clear correlation between the BATSE fluxes below and above 100 keV. In the hard state, most of the variability can be explained by softening the overall spectrum with a pivot at approximately 50 keV. The observations show that there has to be another, independent variability pattern of lower amplitude where the spectral shape does not change when the luminosity changes. In the soft state, the variability is mostly caused by a variable hard (Comptonized) spectral component of a constant shape superimposed on a constant soft blackbody component. These variability patterns are in agreement with the dependence of the rms variability on the photon energy in the two states. We interpret the observed correlations in terms of theoretical Comptonization models. In the hard state, the variability appears to be driven mostly by changing flux in seed photons Comptonized in a hot thermal plasma cloud with an approximately constant power supply. In the soft state, the variability is consistent with flares of hybrid, thermal/nonthermal, plasma with variable power above a stable cold disk. Also, based on broadband pointed observations simultaneous with those of the ASM and BATSE, we find the intrinsic bolometric luminosity increases by a

  10. Increasing Juniperus virginiana L. pollen in the Tulsa atmosphere: long-term trends, variability, and influence of meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flonard, Michaela; Lo, Esther; Levetin, Estelle

    2018-02-01

    In the Tulsa area, the Cupressaceae is largely represented by eastern red cedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.). The encroachment of this species into the grasslands of Oklahoma has been well documented, and it is believed this trend will continue. The pollen is known to be allergenic and is a major component of the Tulsa atmosphere in February and March. This study examined airborne Cupressaceae pollen data from 1987 to 2016 to determine long-term trends, pollen seasonal variability, and influence of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations. Pollen was collected through means of a Burkard sampler and analyzed with microscopy. Daily pollen concentrations and yearly pollen metrics showed a high degree of variability. In addition, there were significant increases over time in the seasonal pollen index and in peak concentrations. These increases parallel the increasing population of J. virginiana in the region. Pollen data were split into pre- and post-peak categories for statistical analyses, which revealed significant differences in correlations of the two datasets when analyzed with meteorological conditions. While temperature and dew point, among others were significant in both datasets, other factors, like relative humidity, were significant only in one dataset. Analyses using wind direction showed that southerly and southwestern winds contributed to increased pollen concentrations. This study confirms that J. virginiana pollen has become an increasing risk for individuals sensitive to this pollen and emphasizes the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in other areas.

  11. Short- and long-term variability of radon progeny concentration in dwellings in the Czech Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slezáková, M; Navrátilová Rovenská, K; Tomásek, L; Holecek, J

    2013-03-01

    In this paper, repeated measurements of radon progeny concentration in dwellings in the Czech Republic are described. Two distinct data sets are available: one based on present measurements in 170 selected dwellings in the Central Bohemian Pluton with a primary measurement carried out in the 1990s and the other based on 1920 annual measurements in 960 single-family houses in the Czech Republic in 1992 and repeatedly in 1993. The analysis of variance model with random effects is applied to data to evaluate the variability of measurements. The calculated variability attributable to repeated measurements is compared with results from other countries. In epidemiological studies, ignoring the variability of measurements may lead to biased estimates of risk of lung cancer.

  12. Inferring the nature of anthropogenic threats from long-term abundance records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, Kevin T; Akçakaya, H Resit

    2015-02-01

    Diagnosing the processes that threaten species persistence is critical for recovery planning and risk forecasting. Dominant threats are typically inferred by experts on the basis of a patchwork of informal methods. Transparent, quantitative diagnostic tools would contribute much-needed consistency, objectivity, and rigor to the process of diagnosing anthropogenic threats. Long-term census records, available for an increasingly large and diverse set of taxa, may exhibit characteristic signatures of specific threatening processes and thereby provide information for threat diagnosis. We developed a flexible Bayesian framework for diagnosing threats on the basis of long-term census records and diverse ancillary sources of information. We tested this framework with simulated data from artificial populations subjected to varying degrees of exploitation and habitat loss and several real-world abundance time series for which threatening processes are relatively well understood: bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) (exploitation) and Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) and Eurasian Skylark (Alauda arvensis) (habitat loss). Our method correctly identified the process driving population decline for over 90% of time series simulated under moderate to severe threat scenarios. Successful identification of threats approached 100% for severe exploitation and habitat loss scenarios. Our method identified threats less successfully when threatening processes were weak and when populations were simultaneously affected by multiple threats. Our method selected the presumed true threat model for all real-world case studies, although results were somewhat ambiguous in the case of the Eurasian Skylark. In the latter case, incorporation of an ancillary source of information (records of land-use change) increased the weight assigned to the presumed true model from 70% to 92%, illustrating the value of the proposed framework in bringing diverse sources of

  13. Long-term demography of the Northern Goshawk in a variable environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Reynolds; Jeffrey S. Lambert; Curtis H. Flather; Gary C. White; Benjamin J. Bird; L. Scott Baggett; Carrie Lambert; Shelley Bayard De Bolo

    2017-01-01

    The Nearctic northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillis) is a resident of conifer, broadleaf, and mixed forests from the boreal to the southwestern montane regions of North America. We report on a 20-year mark-recapture investigation (1991-2010) of the distribution and density of breeders, temporal and spatial variability in breeding, nestling sex ratios, local...

  14. Long-term streamflow response to climatic variability in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenping Wang; Zhiqiang Zhang; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Huayong Zhang; Jianlao Li; Manliang Zhang

    2008-01-01

    The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12-km2 watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province...

  15. Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2017-12-01

    The primary objective of this study is to develop a stochastic rainfall generation model that can match not only the short resolution (daily) variability but also the longer resolution (monthly to multiyear) variability of observed rainfall. This study has developed a Markov chain (MC) model, which uses a two-state MC process with two parameters (wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry transition probabilities) to simulate rainfall occurrence and a gamma distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. Starting with the traditional MC-gamma model with deterministic parameters, this study has developed and assessed four other variants of the MC-gamma model with different parameterisations. The key finding is that if the parameters of the gamma distribution are randomly sampled each year from fitted distributions rather than fixed parameters with time, the variability of rainfall depths at both short and longer temporal resolutions can be preserved, while the variability of wet periods (i.e. number of wet days and mean length of wet spell) can be preserved by decadally varied MC parameters. This is a straightforward enhancement to the traditional simplest MC model and is both objective and parsimonious.

  16. Long-term Variability of H2CO Masers in Star-forming Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, N.; Araya, E. D.; Hoffman, I. M.; Hofner, P.; Kurtz, S.; Linz, H.; Olmi, L.; Lorran-Costa, I.

    2017-10-01

    We present results of a multi-epoch monitoring program on variability of 6 cm formaldehyde (H2CO) masers in the massive star-forming region NGC 7538 IRS 1 from 2008 to 2015, conducted with the Green Bank Telescope, the Westerbork Radio Telescope , and the Very Large Array. We found that the similar variability behaviors of the two formaldehyde maser velocity components in NGC 7538 IRS 1 (which was pointed out by Araya and collaborators in 2007) have continued. The possibility that the variability is caused by changes in the maser amplification path in regions with similar morphology and kinematics is discussed. We also observed 12.2 GHz methanol and 22.2 GHz water masers toward NGC 7538 IRS 1. The brightest maser components of CH3OH and H2O species show a decrease in flux density as a function of time. The brightest H2CO maser component also shows a decrease in flux density and has a similar LSR velocity to the brightest H2O and 12.2 GHz CH3OH masers. The line parameters of radio recombination lines and the 20.17 and 20.97 GHz CH3OH transitions in NGC 7538 IRS 1 are also reported. In addition, we observed five other 6 cm formaldehyde maser regions. We found no evidence of significant variability of the 6 cm masers in these regions with respect to previous observations, the only possible exception being the maser in G29.96-0.02. All six sources were also observed in the {{{H}}}213{CO} isotopologue transition of the 6 cm H2CO line; {{{H}}}213{CO} absorption was detected in five of the sources. Estimated column density ratios [{{{H}}}212{CO}]/[{{{H}}}213{CO}] are reported.

  17. SPITZER OBSERVATIONS OF LONG-TERM INFRARED VARIABILITY AMONG YOUNG STELLAR OBJECTS IN CHAMAELEON I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flaherty, Kevin M.; Herbst, William [Van Vleck Observatory, Astronomy Department, Wesleyan University, 96 Foss Hill Drive, Middletown, CT 06459 (United States); DeMarchi, Lindsay [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Colgate University, 13 Oak Drive, Hamilton, NY 13346 (United States); Muzerolle, James [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Balog, Zoltan [Max-Planck-Institut fur Astronomie, Konigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Megeath, S. Thomas [Ritter Astrophysical Research Center, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Furlan, Elise [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, 770 S. Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Gutermuth, Robert [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States)

    2016-12-10

    Infrared variability is common among young stellar objects, with surveys finding daily to weekly fluctuations of a few tenths of a magnitude. Space-based observations can produce highly sampled infrared light curves, but are often limited to total baselines of about 1 month due to the orientation of the spacecraft. Here we present observations of the Chameleon I cluster, whose low declination makes it observable by the Spitzer Space Telescope over a 200-day period. We observe 30 young stellar objects with a daily cadence to better sample variability on timescales of months. We find that such variability is common, occurring in ∼80% of the detected cluster members. The change in [3.6]–[4.5] color over 200 days for many of the sources falls between that expected for extinction and fluctuations in disk emission. With our high cadence and long baseline we can derive power spectral density curves covering two orders of magnitude in frequency and find significant power at low frequencies, up to the boundaries of our 200-day survey. Such long timescales are difficult to explain with variations driven by the interaction between the disk and stellar magnetic field, which has a dynamical timescale of days to weeks. The most likely explanation is either structural or temperature fluctuations spread throughout the inner ∼0.5 au of the disk, suggesting that the intrinsic dust structure is highly dynamic.

  18. Long-term gamma-ray spectral variability of Cygnus X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ling, J.C.; Mahoney, W.A.; Wheaton, WM.A.; Jacobson, A.S.

    1987-01-01

    Data from HEAO 3 observations of 0.05-10-MeV gamma-ray emission from Cyg X-1 during two 90-d periods (in fall 1979 and spring 1980) are compiled in tables and graphs and analyzed statistically to determine the temporal and spectral variability. It is found that a steady increase in 100-keV emission is accompanied by a decrease (and eventual disappearance) of MeV emission. The mechanisms which could theoretically be responsible for these phenomena are discussed. 28 references

  19. Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nidheesh, A.G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Dayan, H.

    (Shankar and Shetye 1999, Unnikrishnan and Shankar 2007) as well as in the basin scale (Lee and McPhaden 2008, Cheng et al. 2008, Han et al. 2010) have been previously investigated, the picture of decadal/multi-decadal variability in the tropical Indo... dynamics along the rim of the northern Indian Ocean (McCreary et al. 1993, McCreary et al. 1996). At intra- seasonal timescales, the Indo-Pacific warm pool region is home to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, an eastward moving energetic fluctuation of deep...

  20. Climatological variability in modeling of long-term regional transport and deposition of air pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shannon, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    In a growing number of emission policy analyses, regulatory proceedings, and cost/benefit assessments, numerical models of long-range transport and deposition of air pollutants have been exercised to estimate source-receptor (S-R) relationships--for the particular meteorological conditions input to the model. The representativeness of the meteorological conditions, or the variability of the model estimates with climatological input from different years or corresponding seasons from different years, is seldom evaluated. Here, two full years (1980 and 1981) of meteorological data, as well as data from January and July of 1978, are used in the Advanced Statistical Trajectory Regional Air Pollution (ASTRAP) model (Shannon, 1981), one of the eight Memorandum of Intent (MOI) models, to estimate deposition for the S-R matrix combination of eleven source regions and nine receptors used in the MOI reports. (S-R matrices of dimensions 40 by 9 were also examined in the MOI reports.) Improvements in the ASTRAP model and in the emission inventory since the earlier work require recalculation of the two-month 1978 simulation in order for the comparison to isolate the effect of meteorological variability. The source regions are listed, and the receptor regions are provide. For completeness, an additional source region, the western states and provinces, has been added, as well as a total for the 48 contiguous states and 10 provinces. 4 references, 9 tables

  1. The ophthalmic natural history of paediatric craniopharyngioma: a long-term review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drimtzias, Evangelos; Falzon, Kevin; Picton, Susan; Jeeva, Irfan; Guy, Danielle; Nelson, Olwyn; Simmons, Ian

    2014-12-01

    We present our experience over the long-term of monitoring of visual function in children with craniopharyngioma. Our study involves an analysis of all paediatric patients with craniopharyngioma younger than 16 at the time of diagnosis and represents a series of predominantly sub-totally resected tumours. Visual data, of multiple modality, of the paediatric patients was collected. Twenty patients were surveyed. Poor prognostic indicators of the visual outcome and rate of recurrence were assessed. Severe visual loss and papilledema at the time of diagnosis were more common in children under the age of 6. In our study visual signs, tumour calcification and optic disc atrophy at presentation are predictors of poor visual outcome with the first two applying only in children younger than 6. In contrast with previous reports, preoperative visual field (VF) defects and type of surgery were not documented as prognostic indicators of poor postoperative visual acuity (VA) and VF. Contrary to previous reports calcification at diagnosis, type of surgery and preoperative VF defects were not found to be associated with tumour recurrence. Local recurrence is common. Younger age at presentation is associated with a tendency to recur. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) remains the recommended means of follow-up in patients with craniopharyngioma.

  2. Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yepes Rodriguez, Ramon

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a real option model for the valuation of destination flexibility in long-term LNG supplies. Stochastic price dynamics in the different markets is modelled through geometric Brownian motion processes. Mean reversion is considered as well as correlation between markets, but instead of the usual correlation in return shocks, a price convergence term is introduced representing the arbitrage streams between markets. Model parameters are estimated from market data on LNG prices by maximum log-likelihood. The goodness of the fit for the proposed model is tested as well as for two alternative models. Confidence intervals for the parameters are given. Results for the model are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Frequency distributions for the main results are plotted. The effect of the main parameters of the model is studied (i.e. price volatilities, price convergence, initial prices in the markets, mean reversion, extra transportation costs, number of alternative markets). The value of destination flexibility is found to be an important share of the value of LNG

  3. Pediatric patients with common variable immunodeficiency: long-term follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadinejad, P; Aghamohammadi, A; Abolhassani, H; Sadaghiani, M S; Abdollahzade, S; Sadeghi, B; Soheili, H; Tavassoli, M; Fathi, S M; Tavakol, M; Behniafard, N; Darabi, B; Pourhamdi, S; Rezaei, N

    2012-01-01

    Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is the most common form of symptomatic primary immunodeficiency disease. It is characterized by hypogammaglobulinemia, increased predisposition to infections, autoimmunity, and cancer. This study was performed to evaluate the clinical and immunological features of a group of pediatric patients with CVID. The study population comprised 69 individuals with CVID diagnosed during childhood. The patients were followed up for a mean (SD) period of 5.2 (4.3) years. The mean diagnostic delay was 4.4 (3.6) years, which was significantly lower in patients who were diagnosed recently. Children were classified according to 5 clinical phenotypes: infections only (n=39), polyclonal lymphocytic infiltration (n=17), autoimmunity (n=12), malignancy (n=7), and enteropathy (n=3). Postdiagnosis survival (10-year) was 71%. The high percentages of pediatric patients with CVID in Iran may be due to the considerable prevalence of parental consanguinity in the region and an underlying genetic background.

  4. Long-term spectroscopic monitoring of the Luminous Blue Variable AG Carinae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, O.; Jankovics, I.; Kovács, J.; Wolf, B.; Schmutz, W.; Kaufer, A.; Rivinius, Th.; Szeifert, Th.

    2001-08-01

    We have extensively monitored the Luminous Blue Variable AG Car (HD 94910) spectroscopically. Our data cover the years 1989 to 1999. In this period, the star underwent almost a full S Dor cycle from visual minimum to maximum and back. Over several seasons, up to four months of almost daily spectra are available. Our data cover most of the visual spectral range with a high spectral resolution (lambda /Delta lambda ~ 20 000). This allows us to investigate the variability in many lines on time scales from days to years. The strongest variability occurs on a time scale of years. Qualitatively, the variations can be understood as changes of the effective temperature and radius, which are in phase with the optical light curve. Quantitatively, there are several interesting deviations from this behaviour, however. The Balmer lines show P Cygni profiles and have their maximum strength (both in equivalent width and line flux) after the peak of the optical light curve, at the descending branch of the light curve. The line-width during maximum phase is smaller than during minimum, but it has a local maximum close to the peak of the visual light curve. We derive mass-loss rates over the cycle from the Hα line and find the highest mass loss rates (log dot {M}/({M}_sun yr-1) ~ -3.8, about a factor of five higher than in the minimum, where we find log dot {M}/({M}_sun yr-1) ~ -4.5) after the visual maximum. Line-splitting is very commonly observed, especially on the rise to maximum and on the descending branch from maximum. The components are very long-lived (years) and are probably unrelated to similar-looking line-splitting events in normal supergiants. Small apparent accelerations of the components are observed. The change in radial velocity could be due to successive narrowing of the components, with the absorption disappearing at small expansion velocities first. In general, the line-splitting is more likely the result of missing absorption at intermediate velocities than of

  5. Long-term hydroclimatic variability in monsoon shadow zone of western Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Ram R.

    2011-04-01

    Tree-ring-width data of Himalayan cedar [ Cedrus deodara (Roxb.) G. Don] from 11 homogeneous moisture stressed sites in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalaya were used to develop a mean chronology extending back to ad 1353. The chronology developed using Regional Curve Standardization method is the first from the Himalayan region of India showing centennial-scale variations. The calibration of ring-width chronology with instrumental precipitation data available from stations close to the tree ring sampling sites showed strong, direct relationship with March-April-May-June (MAMJ) precipitation. This strong relationship was used to supplement the instrumental precipitation data back to ad 1410. The precipitation reconstruction showed extended period of drought in fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. Increasingly pluvial conditions were recorded since eighteenth century, with the highest precipitation in the early part of the nineteenth century. The decreasing trend in reconstructed precipitation in the last decade of the twentieth century, consistent with the instrumental records, is associated with the decreasing trend in frequency of western disturbances. MAMJ precipitation over the monsoon shadow zone in the western Himalaya is directly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NINO3-SST index of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the leading modes of climate variability influencing climate over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the relationship between ENSO and MAMJ precipitation collapsed completely during 1930-1960. The breakdown in this relationship is associated with the warm phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A spectral analysis of reconstructed MAMJ precipitation indicates frequencies in the range of the variability associated with modes of NAO, ENSO and AMO.

  6. Drivers of long-term precipitation and runoff variability in the southeastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Johanna; Waylen, Peter

    2018-02-01

    The hydroclimatology of the southeastern USA (AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN) is analyzed from a holistic perspective, including multiple climate drivers. Monthly precipitation modeled by the PRISM group and runoff data (1952-2011) from 18 basins are analyzed using a single-field based principal component's analysis. Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main atmospheric drivers of hydroclimate variability in the region, sometimes operating at several months' lag. Their influence is the strongest in the fall through spring, which corresponds with the dry season in the southern parts of the study area thereby increasing pressure on already limited water resources. The Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific-North American patterns vary on shorter-term bases, and also show a significant, but temporally more sporadic influence. Insight is also brought to the ongoing discussion, confirming the disassociation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation. Findings can be used in water resources forecasting, giving an indication of expected water volumes several months ahead.

  7. Long Term Ground Based Precipitation Data Analysis in California's 7 Climate Divisions: Spatial and Temporal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, L.; El-Askary, H. M.; Rakovski, C.; Allai, M.

    2015-12-01

    California is an area of diverse topography and has what many scientists call a Mediterranean climate. Various precipitation patterns exist due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which can cause abnormal precipitation or droughts. As temperature increases mainly due to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, it is rapidly changing the climate of not only California but the world. An increase in temperature is leading to droughts in certain areas as other areas are experiencing heavy rainfall/flooding. Droughts in return are providing a foundation for fires harming the ecosystem and nearby population. Various natural hazards can be induced due to the coupling effects from inconsistent precipitation patterns and vice versa. Using wavelets and ARIMA modeling, we were able to identify anomalies of high precipitation and droughts within California's 7 climate divisions using NOAA's hourly precipitation data from rain gauges and compared the results with modeled data, SOI, PDO, and AMO. The identification of anomalies can be used to compare and correct remote sensing measurements of precipitation and droughts.

  8. Long term natural history data in ambulant boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy: 36-month changes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marika Pane

    Full Text Available The 6 minute walk test has been recently chosen as the primary outcome measure in international multicenter clinical trials in Duchenne muscular dystrophy ambulant patients. The aim of the study was to assess the spectrum of changes at 3 years in the individual measures, their correlation with steroid treatment, age and 6 minute walk test values at baseline. Ninety-six patients from 11 centers were assessed at baseline and 12, 24 and 36 months after baseline using the 6 minute walk test and the North Star Ambulatory Assessment. Three boys (3% lost the ability to perform the 6 minute walk test within 12 months, another 13 between 12 and 24 months (14% and 11 between 24 and 36 months (12%. The 6 minute walk test showed an average overall decline of -15.8 (SD 77.3 m at 12 months, of -58.9 (SD 125.7 m at 24 months and -104.22 (SD 146.2 m at 36 months. The changes were significantly different in the two baseline age groups and according to the baseline 6 minute walk test values (below and above 350 m (p<0.001. The changes were also significantly different according to steroid treatment (p = 0.01. Similar findings were found for the North Star Ambulatory Assessment. These are the first 36 month longitudinal data using the 6 minute walk test and North Star Ambulatory Assessment in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Our findings will help not only to have a better idea of the progression of the disorder but also provide reference data that can be used to compare with the results of the long term extension studies that are becoming available.

  9. Long term natural history data in ambulant boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy: 36-month changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pane, Marika; Mazzone, Elena Stacy; Sivo, Serena; Sormani, Maria Pia; Messina, Sonia; D'Amico, Adele; Carlesi, Adelina; Vita, Gianluca; Fanelli, Lavinia; Berardinelli, Angela; Torrente, Yvan; Lanzillotta, Valentina; Viggiano, Emanuela; D Ambrosio, Paola; Cavallaro, Filippo; Frosini, Silvia; Barp, Andrea; Bonfiglio, Serena; Scalise, Roberta; De Sanctis, Roberto; Rolle, Enrica; Graziano, Alessandra; Magri, Francesca; Palermo, Concetta; Rossi, Francesca; Donati, Maria Alice; Sacchini, Michele; Arnoldi, Maria Teresa; Baranello, Giovanni; Mongini, Tiziana; Pini, Antonella; Battini, Roberta; Pegoraro, Elena; Previtali, Stefano; Bruno, Claudio; Politano, Luisa; Comi, Giacomo P; Bertini, Enrico; Mercuri, Eugenio

    2014-01-01

    The 6 minute walk test has been recently chosen as the primary outcome measure in international multicenter clinical trials in Duchenne muscular dystrophy ambulant patients. The aim of the study was to assess the spectrum of changes at 3 years in the individual measures, their correlation with steroid treatment, age and 6 minute walk test values at baseline. Ninety-six patients from 11 centers were assessed at baseline and 12, 24 and 36 months after baseline using the 6 minute walk test and the North Star Ambulatory Assessment. Three boys (3%) lost the ability to perform the 6 minute walk test within 12 months, another 13 between 12 and 24 months (14%) and 11 between 24 and 36 months (12%). The 6 minute walk test showed an average overall decline of -15.8 (SD 77.3) m at 12 months, of -58.9 (SD 125.7) m at 24 months and -104.22 (SD 146.2) m at 36 months. The changes were significantly different in the two baseline age groups and according to the baseline 6 minute walk test values (below and above 350 m) (p<0.001). The changes were also significantly different according to steroid treatment (p = 0.01). Similar findings were found for the North Star Ambulatory Assessment. These are the first 36 month longitudinal data using the 6 minute walk test and North Star Ambulatory Assessment in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Our findings will help not only to have a better idea of the progression of the disorder but also provide reference data that can be used to compare with the results of the long term extension studies that are becoming available.

  10. The use of natural and archaeological analogues for understanding the long-term behavior of nuclear glasses; L'utilisation des analogues naturels et archeologiques pour la comprehension de l'evolution a long terme des verres nucleaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Libourel, G.; Verney-Carron, A.; Morlok, A. [CNRS UPR2300, centre de recherches petrographiques et geochimiques (CRPG), Nancy-universite, 15, rue Notre-Dame-des-Pauvres, BP 20, 54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Libourel, G. [INPL, Ecole nationale superieure de geologie (ENSG), Nancy-universite, rue du Doyen-Marcel-Roubault, BP 20, 54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Gin, St. [CEA Marcoule, DEN/SECM/LCLT, 30 (France); Sterpenich, J. [G2R, CNRS-UMR 7566, Nancy-universite, BP 70239, 54506 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy cedex (France); Michelin, A.; Neff, D.; Dillmann, Ph. [Laboratoire archeomateriaux et prevision de l' alteration LAPA/SIS2 M, CEA and CNRS, Bat 637, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif/Yvette cedex (France); Michelin, A.; Dillmann, Ph. [LMC IRAMAT UMR5060 CNRS (France)

    2011-02-15

    The knowledge of the long-term behavior of nuclear waste in anticipation of ultimate disposal in a deep geological formation is of prime importance in a waste management strategy. If phenomenological models have been developed to predict the long-term behavior of these materials, validating these models remains a challenge, when considering the time scale of radioactive decay of radionuclides of environmental concern, typically 10{sup 4}-10{sup 5} yrs. Here we show how natural or archaeological analogues provide critical constraints not only on the phenomenology of glass alteration and the mechanisms involved, but also on the ability of experimental short-term data to predict long-term alteration in complex environments. (authors)

  11. Naturally-occurring zirconolites - analogues for the long-term encapsulation of actinides in synroc

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, K.P.; Lumpkin, G.R.; Giere, R.; Williams, C.T.; McGlinn, P.J.; Payne, T.E.

    1996-01-01

    The use of natural zirconolites to assess the effect of α-decay damage and geochemical alteration on the release of actinides from HLW wasteforms is critically examined. There is evidence that the natural zirconolites provide a good chemical and radiation damage analogy for the HLW wasteforms, but additional work is required to define the geochemical environments in which zirconolite is stable or unstable (e.g., suffering corrosion or chemical alteration, including loss of actinides). (orig.)

  12. The Long-Term Economic Benefits of Natural Mentoring Relationships for Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpe, Zach C; Lunkenheimer, Erika

    2015-09-01

    Natural mentors have been shown to help improve psychological and educational outcomes of youth, and may serve an important role for youth experiencing risk in the home. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), we investigated the associations between natural mentors during youth and income during early adulthood, including how these relations were moderated by the absence of a father figure and race. We also estimated the lifetime economic benefits to having a natural mentor. The presence of a natural mentor alone did not have a significant impact on annual earnings during adulthood. However, youth without a father but who had a male mentor earned significantly more, on average, than those without a male mentor. These effects were more pronounced in a subsample of African American youth. The net present value of total lifetime benefits to having a male natural mentor was approximately $190,000 for all fatherless youth and $458,000 for African American fatherless youth. These results suggest that natural mentors play a crucial role in economic outcomes for youth, which may vary by sociodemographic factors.

  13. Long-Term and Rapid Radio Variability of the Blazar 3C 454.3 in 2010-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorshkov, A. G.; Ipatov, A. V.; Ipatova, I. A.; Konnikova, V. K.; Mardyshkin, V. V.; Mingaliev, M. G.; Kharinov, M. A.

    2018-03-01

    The article presents the results of observations of the blazar 3C 454.3 (J2253+1608), obtained in 2010-2017 on the RATAN-600 radio telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory at 4.6, 8.2, 11.2, and 21.7 GHz and on the 32-m Zelenchuk and Badary radio telescopes of the Quasar VLBI Network of the Institute of Applied Astronomy at 4.84 and 8.57 GHz. Long-term variability of the radio emission is studied, as well as variability on time scales of several days and intraday variability (IDV). Two flares were observed in the long-term light curve, in 2010 and in 2015-2017. The flux density at 21.7 GHz increased by a factor of ten during these flares. The delay in the maximum of the first flare at 4.85 GHz relative to the maximum at 21.7 GHz was six months. The time scale for variability on the descending branch of the first flare at 21.7 GHz was τvar = 1.2 yrs, yielding an upper limit on the linear size of the emitting region of 0.4 pc, corresponding to an angular size of 0.06 mas. The brightness temperature during the flare exceeded the Compton limit, implying a Doppler factor δ = 3.5, consistent with the known presence of a relativistic jet oriented close to the line of sight. No significant variability on time scales from several days to several weeks was found in five sets of daily observations carried out over 120 days. IDV was detected at 8.57 GHz on the 32-m telescopes in 30 of 61 successful observing sessions, with the presence of IDV correlated with the maxima of flares. The characteristic time scale for the IDV was from two to ten hours. A number of IDV light curves show the presence of a time delay in the maxima in the light curves for simultaneous observations carried out on the Badary and Zelenchuk antennas, which are widely separated in longitude. This demonstrates that the IDV most like arises in the interstellar medium.

  14. History, administration, goals, values, and long-term data of Russia's strictly protected scientific nature reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; Anna E. Kvashnina; Y.D. Nukhimovskya; Olin E. Jr. Rhodes

    2009-01-01

    One of the most comprehensive attempts at biodiversity conservation in Russia and the former Soviet Union has been the establishment of an extensive network of protected natural areas. Among all types of protected areas in Russia, zapovedniks (strictly protected scientific preserve) have been the most effective in protecting biodiversity at the ecosystem scale. Russia...

  15. Discriminating between natural versus induced seismicity from long-term deformation history of intraplate faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnani, Maria Beatrice; Blanpied, Michael L; DeShon, Heather R; Hornbach, Matthew J

    2017-11-01

    To assess whether recent seismicity is induced by human activity or is of natural origin, we analyze fault displacements on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles for two regions in the central United States (CUS): the Fort Worth Basin (FWB) of Texas and the northern Mississippi embayment (NME). Since 2009, earthquake activity in the CUS has increased markedly, and numerous publications suggest that this increase is primarily due to induced earthquakes caused by deep-well injection of wastewater, both flowback water from hydrofracturing operations and produced water accompanying hydrocarbon production. Alternatively, some argue that these earthquakes are natural and that the seismicity increase is a normal variation that occurs over millions of years. Our analysis shows that within the NME, faults deform both Quaternary alluvium and underlying sediments dating from Paleozoic through Tertiary, with displacement increasing with geologic unit age, documenting a long history of natural activity. In the FWB, a region of ongoing wastewater injection, basement faults show deformation of the Proterozoic and Paleozoic units, but little or no deformation of younger strata. Specifically, vertical displacements in the post-Pennsylvanian formations, if any, are below the resolution (~15 m) of the seismic data, far less than expected had these faults accumulated deformation over millions of years. Our results support the assertion that recent FWB earthquakes are of induced origin; this conclusion is entirely independent of analyses correlating seismicity and wastewater injection practices. To our knowledge, this is the first study to discriminate natural and induced seismicity using classical structural geology analysis techniques.

  16. The use of natural analogues in the long-term extrapolation of glass corrosion processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutze, W.; Grambow, B.; Ewing, R.C.; Jercinovic, M.J.

    1987-01-01

    One of the most critical aspects of nuclear waste management is the extrapolation of materials and systems behavior from short term experiments, typically on the order of one year, over comparatively very long periods of time. Safety and risk analyses have to rely on extrapolations and the respective findings have to be evaluated in the frame of licensing procedures. In this unique situation, any source of information that can lend support to the credibility of predicted behavior, should be exploited and investigated with great care. There are natural systems, e.g. the Oklo reactor, which can provide evidence of radionuclide migration over very long periods of time and thus help to answer specific questions of interest. Natural glasses and minerals can serve as analogues for both glass and crystalline nuclear waste forms, and the alteration of the natural materials can be studied to infer information on the behavior of the man-made products in geologic environments. This paper reviews most of the work performed by the authors and their colleagues in this field together with information available from literature and discusses the extent to which natural glasses can be used to validate or verify predictions. (author)

  17. Connecting Model Species to Nature: Predator-Induced Long-Term Sensitization in "Aplysia Californica"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Maria J.; Watkins, Amanda J.; Wakabayashi, Jordann; Buechler, Jennifer; Pepino, Christine; Brown, Michelle; Wright, William G.

    2014-01-01

    Previous research on sensitization in "Aplysia" was based entirely on unnatural noxious stimuli, usually electric shock, until our laboratory found that a natural noxious stimulus, a single sublethal lobster attack, causes short-term sensitization. We here extend that finding by demonstrating that multiple lobster attacks induce…

  18. Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  19. Natural course of care dependency in residents of long-term care facilities: prospective follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caljouw, Monique A A; Cools, Herman J M; Gussekloo, Jacobijn

    2014-05-22

    Insight in the natural course of care dependency of vulnerable older persons in long-term care facilities (LTCF) is essential to organize and optimize individual tailored care. We examined changes in care dependency in LTCF residents over two 6-month periods, explored the possible predictive factors of change and the effect of care dependency on mortality. A prospective follow-up study in 21 Dutch long-term care facilities. 890 LTCF residents, median age 84 (Interquartile range 79-88) years participated. At baseline, 6 and 12 months, care dependency was assessed by the nursing staff with the Care Dependency Scale (CDS), range 15-75 points. Since the median CDS score differed between men and women (47.5 vs. 43.0, P = 0.013), CDS groups (low, middle and high) were based on gender-specific 33% of CDS scores at baseline and 6 months. At baseline, the CDS groups differed in median length of stay on the ward, urine incontinence and dementia (all P dependency status, predicted an increase in care dependency over time. The majority of residents were stable in their care dependency status over two subsequent 6-month periods. Highly care dependent residents showed an increased mortality risk. Awareness of the natural course of care dependency is essential to residents and their formal and informal caregivers when considering therapeutic and end-of-life care options.

  20. Natural analogues and evidence of long-term isolation capacity of clays occurring in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benvegnu, F.; Brondi, A.; Polizzano, C.

    1988-01-01

    This work concerns the results of the studies conducted at many sites in Italy aimed at collecting information on natural evidences of the isolation capacity of clay. Field observations allow to get the opportunity to know directly or infer the evolutive geological processes which are of concern for the waste disposal problems. As a major advantage such observations concern natural phenomena acting at the same, or at a greater, time-space scale involved in the geological disposal of wastes. The explored situations regard the secondary permeability of clay, detected by means of natural tracers (Hg, He, hydrothermal and geothermal fluids, ....) at the ground surface or directly studied in deep civilian tunnels. Another treated topic is the meaning of the oxido-reduction front as a control factor of the physico-chemical environment of clay as well as of the radionuclides migration. The mechanical and thermal effects which accompany the intrusion of a subvolcanic body within clay represent an extreme worst case for a comparison of the effects on clay due to heat developed by radionuclide decay. Finally the case of a fossil forest maintained almost inaltered by the clay cover for over 1,500,000 years is described. All the results of the geological researches point univocally to an almost total and long lasting isolation capacity of clay formations

  1. North American natural gas long-term outlook : market and transportation opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahan, R.

    1998-01-01

    This study assessed the impact of major issues and trends on the market dynamics of the natural gas industry. A view of how these trends may evolve over the 1998 to 2015 period was also presented. The focus of the study is on market and transportation opportunities in Canada and the United States and their relationship in terms of supply, demand and gas flows between large aggregated regions. Key issues addressed in the report include: (1) the impacts of new transportation capacity on the flow of gas among supply and demand regions, (2) the impact of deregulation and environmental issues on the demand for gas in the electricity generation sector, and (3) the impacts of technological innovations on supply cost and size of the resource base. The report predicts a steady increase ( about 2 per cent annually) in demand for natural gas in Canada over the projection period (i.e. 1998-2015). Highest growth rates are likely to occur in the use of natural gas to generate electricity. While Alberta will remain pre-eminent among producing regions, British Columbia and resource areas off Canada's East Coast will also significantly increase their share of Canada's total production. 36 refs., 64 tabs., 46 figs

  2. Long term developments in irradiated natural uranium processing costs. Optimal size and siting of plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thiriet, L.

    1964-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to help solve the problem of the selection of optimal sizes and sites for spent nuclear fuel processing plants associated with power capacity programmes already installed. Firstly, the structure of capital and running costs of irradiated natural uranium processing plants is studied, as well as the influence of plant sizes on these costs and structures. Shipping costs from the production site to the plant must also be added to processing costs. An attempt to reach a minimum cost for the production of a country or a group of countries must therefore take into account both the size and the location of the plants. The foreseeable shipping costs and their structure (freight, insurance, container cost and depreciation), for spent natural uranium are indicated. Secondly, for various annual spent fuel reprocessing programmes, the optimal sizes and locations of the plants are determined. The sensitivity of the results to the basic assumptions relative to processing costs, shipping costs, the starting up year of the plant programme and the length of period considered, is also tested. - this rather complex problem, of a combinative nature, is solved through dynamic programming methods. - It is shown that these methods can also be applied to the problem of selecting the optimal sizes and locations of processing plants for MTR type fuel elements, related to research reactor programmes, as well as to future plutonium element processing plants related to breeder reactors. Thirdly, the case where yearly extraction of the plutonium contained in the irradiated natural uranium is not compulsory is examined; some stockpiling of the fuel is then allowed some years, entailing delayed processing. The load factor of such plants is thus greatly improved with respect to that of plants where the annual plutonium demand is strictly satisfied. By including spent natural uranium stockpiling costs an optimal rhythm of introduction and optimal sizes for spent fuel

  3. Coping with climate variability and long-term climate trends for Nicaraguan maize-bean farmers (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.

  4. Long-term growth and succession in restored and natural mangrove forests in southwestern Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proffitt, C.E.; Devlin, D.J.

    2005-01-01

    We compared colonization, growth and succession from 1989 to 2000 in a restored mangrove site and in gap and closed canopy sites in a natural mangrove forest. The restored site was created in 1982 and planted with Rhizophora mangle (???2 m-2) propagules. By 1989, Laguncularia racemosa, with densities up to 12.9 tree m-2, was a dominant in all plots, although densities were greater at edge plots relative to inner plots, and near open water (west plots) relative to further inland (east plots), and in tall mangrove plots relative to scrub plots. Rhizophora mangle (1989 tree densities about 2 m-2) was a codominant in inner and scrub plots, while Avicennia germinans had the lowest densities (mangle and L. racemosa, rapid growth in height of all species (1989-1996), followed by a dieoff of L. racemosa in later years (1997-2000) as the canopy came to resemble that of tall mangrove plots. Colonization and growth rates were lower in gap and closed canopy regions of the natural forest relative to rates in the restored site. After 11 years, densities of L. racemosa were 10-20x lower and R. mangle slightly less in the gap relative to densities in tall mangrove plots in the restored site at the same age. Although the restored stand had converged with the natural forest by 2000 in terms of some factors such as species richness, vegetation cover, litterfall, and light penetration, trees were still much smaller and stem densities much higher. Full development of mature structure and ecological function will likely require decades more development. ?? Springer 2005.

  5. Contributions of vitreous natural analogs to the investigation of long-term nuclear glass behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Techer, I.

    1999-01-01

    This study assesses the extend of the analogy between the alteration behavior in water and in a moist clay environment of aluminosilicate volcanic glass and alumino-borosilicate nuclear containment glass. Basaltic glass alteration in water initially occurs by hydrolysis processes with an activation energy on the order of 73 kJ.mol -1 . As the reaction progresses, the alteration rate drops by over four orders of magnitude from the initial rate r 0 , The alteration kinetics are not governed by the alteration solution chemistry alone, the glass alteration film appears to have a major role as a diffusion barrier limiting the transfer of reaction species and products. All these aspects highlight the behavioral analogy between basaltic glass and nuclear borosilicate glass in aqueous media. Conversely, the alteration reaction of obsidian-type volcanic glass involves other mechanisms than those governing the dissolution of borosilicate glass. Basaltic glass alteration is also examined in the presence of a clay environmental material, in a study of the natural basaltic glass and argillaceous pelites system of the Salagou basin in southern France, in an approach combining mineralogical, chemical and isotopic data to assess the interactions between a basaltic glass and the argillaceous pelites. Laboratory leach test results with basaltic glass and measured data for the Salagou glass in its natural environment are modeled using a code implementing a kinetic law coupling diffusive transfer of dissolved silica with a reaction affinity law. (author)

  6. Age at natural menopause in women on long-term methotrexate therapy for rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banas, Tomasz; Hajdyla-Banas, Iwona; Pitynski, Kazimierz; Niewegłowska, Dorota; Juszczyk, Grzegorz; Ludwin, Artur; Knafel, Anna; Ludwin, Inga

    2016-10-01

    The aim of the study was to compare the natural menopause ages of healthy women with those of women with methotrexate (MTX)-treated rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and to specifically assess the effect of disease onset and activity and the use of MTX on the age of the last menstruation. We performed a retrospective review of medical records to identify the ages at which menopause occurred in women with premenopausal RA treated with MTX and in women with postmenopausal onset, irrespective of therapy. Natural menopause ages were also compared between participants with and without RA. Women with premenopausal onset of RA underwent menopause at a significantly younger age than did healthy women (P Menopause also occurred at younger ages in participants with postmenopausal disease onset than in healthy controls (P = 0.012). The study suggested that menopause age was positively correlated with the age at which RA was diagnosed (R = 0.51; P menopause (P = 0.008). The age at which menopause occurs in a patient with RA depends on the patient's age at the time of disease onset and its duration, but is not influenced by MTX treatment.

  7. Natural analogue study of long-term leaching behavior of vitrification glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Takashi; Yusa, Yasuhisa; Kamei; Gento

    1990-01-01

    In the research on the formation disposal of high level radioactive wastes, the evaluation of the leaching behavior of vitrification glass over ultralong term is one of the important themes. Therefore, the research on the phenomena of quality change in natural environment of volcanic glass, of which the chemical composition resembles well, was carried out (natural analogue study). Among the pyroclastic fall deposit in Fuji and Izu Oshima Volcanoes, the examples of the weathering change of quality of basaltic glass over several hundreds-several thousands years were selected, and on the spot survey, the analysis of groundwater, SEM observation, EPMA and so on were carried out. As the results, the following facts were found. According to the review of the literatures on ancient climate, the atmospheric temperature and precipitation in the past 3000 years were regarded as nearly the same as now. The products from the quality change were similar to the case of laboratory leaching experiment on vitrification glass. The measured ion concentration in groundwater agreed with the calculated values. (K.I.)

  8. Pediatric vocal fold immobility: natural history and the need for long-term follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbour, Jad; Martin, Timothy; Beste, David; Robey, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    IMPORTANCE The clinical course and outcomes of pediatric vocal fold immobility (VFI) vary widely in the literature, and follow-up in these patients varies accordingly. A better understanding of the natural history of pediatric VFI is crucial to improved management. OBJECTIVE To characterize the natural history of pediatric VFI, including symptoms and rates of resolution and surgical intervention. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective review at an academically affiliated private pediatric otolaryngology practice in a metropolitan area of all patients seen between July 15, 2001, and September 1, 2012, with a diagnosis of complete or partial VFI. After elimination of 92 incomplete or duplicate files, 404 patient records were reviewed for demographic characteristics, etiologies, symptoms, follow-up, resolution, and interventions. Follow-up records were available for 362 patients (89.6%). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Resolution of VFI confirmed by repeated laryngoscopy, length of follow-up, and surgical intervention rates. RESULTS Among the 404 patients, left VFI was present in 66.8%, right VFI in 7.9%, and bilateral VFI in 25.3%. Median (range) age at presentation was 2.9 (0-528.1) months. Major etiological categories included cardiac surgery in 68.8%, idiopathic immobility in 21.0%, and neurologic disease in 7.4%. At presentation, 61.4%experienced dysphonia, 54.0%respiratory symptoms, and 49.5%dysphagia. Tracheotomy was performed in 25.7%and gastrostomy in 40.8%. Median (range) duration of follow-up among the 89.6%of patients with follow-up was 17.2 (0.2-173.5) months. Resolution evidenced by laryngoscopy was found in 28.0%, with a median (range) time to resolution of 4.3 (0.4-38.7) months. In patients without laryngoscopic resolution, median follow-up was 26.0 months, and 28.9% reported symptomatic resolution. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The natural history of pediatric VFI involves substantial morbidity, with lasting symptoms and considerable rates of surgical

  9. North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bustamante, E.; Jimenez, P.A. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Navarro, J. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Xoplaki, E. [University of Bern, Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Montavez, J.P. [Universidad de Murcia, Departamento de Fisica, Murcia (Spain)

    2012-01-15

    The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992-2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified

  10. Natural and anthropogenic ocean noise recorded at long-term and temporary observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grevemeyer, Ingo; Metz, Dirk; Watts, Anthony B.; Geissler, Wolfram

    2017-04-01

    Most people worldwide would assume that the oceans are silent. However, a number of natural phenomenon's like ocean waves, wind, lightening, ice noise, earthquakes, and submarine volcanic activity contributes to the ambient ocean noise. During their evolution, marine animals like fish and mammals have adopted in many ways to the acoustic properties of the sea. Yet in recent decades, anthropogenic and hence manmade ocean noise level has risen profoundly. Due to extreme reliance of fish and mammals on underwater sounds for basic life functions, including searching for food or mate and the absence of any mechanism to safeguard them against it, underwater noise pollution may disrupt marine life. The primary sources of low-frequency anthropogenic noise include sounds associated with shipping, military operations, oil and gas exploration and production, and even research activities. Some scientists suggest that today virtually no marine environment is without any noise pollution. Thus, all marine life forms that rely heavily on the integrity of their acoustic habitat may have to adapt to new conditions. Of greatest concern for whales are low-frequency sounds that travel long distances in the ocean. Ship propellers and motors, for instance, produce sound at low frequencies, as do natural and manmade seismic activity. These profound, loud noises reverberate in the deep ocean and can effectively mask or block vital whale communication. However, in general very little is known about the world-wide distribution of ambient ocean noise. Thus, on a global scale and considering the vast areas of the world's oceans, we know virtually nothing about noise levels in different parts of the oceans and how anthropogenic noise contributes to ambient noise. Here, we use hydrophone recordings from the UN's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty organization (CTBTO) and ocean-bottom seismometers to provide an assessment of noise in all major basins, including the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian

  11. Long term consumption of mineral spring water containing natural radium-226

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aulenbach, D.B.; Davis, R.E.

    1976-01-01

    The presence of naturally occurring 226 radium in several of the spring waters of Saratoga Springs, New York has been known for some time. However, recently the recommended maximum acceptable limit for consumption of water containing radium has been lowered to the point that the limits are now lower than the concentration of radium observed in several of the wells. A survey was made of 27 individuals who have consumed water from the Hathorn No. 1 Spring for periods varying from 5-65 years. A calculation was made of the 226 radium body burden from equations provided in the literature. The calcium concentration of the springs was determined in consideration of the still unknown comparative selectivity of the body between radium and calcium. Waters from two of the springs were analzyed for 226 radium using the radon emanation method. No adverse effects of consuming the mineral water were observed in the individuals interviewed nor were there any increased incidences of broken or brittle bones among these individuals

  12. Long-term natural attenuation of carbon and nitrogen within a groundwater plume after removal of the treated wastewater source.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Repert, Deborah A; Barber, Larry B; Hess, Kathryn M; Keefe, Steffanie H; Kent, Douglas B; LeBlanc, Denis R; Smith, Richard L

    2006-02-15

    Disposal of treated wastewater for more than 60 years onto infiltration beds on Cape Cod, Massachusetts produced a groundwater contaminant plume greater than 6 km long in a surficial sand and gravel aquifer. In December 1995 the wastewater disposal ceased. A long-term, continuous study was conducted to characterize the post-cessation attenuation of the plume from the source to 0.6 km downgradient. Concentrations and total pools of mobile constituents, such as boron and nitrate, steadily decreased within 1-4 years along the transect. Dissolved organic carbon loads also decreased, but to a lesser extent, particularly downgradient of the infiltration beds. After 4 years, concentrations and pools of carbon and nitrogen in groundwater were relatively constant with time and distance, but substantially elevated above background. The contaminant plume core remained anoxic for the entire 10-year study period; temporal patterns of integrated oxygen deficit decreased slowly at all sites. In 2004, substantial amounts of total dissolved carbon (7 mol C m(-2)) and fixed (dissolved plus sorbed) inorganic nitrogen (0.5 mol N m(-2)) were still present in a 28-m vertical interval at the disposal site. Sorbed constituents have contributed substantially to the dissolved carbon and nitrogen pools and are responsible for the long-term persistence of the contaminant plume. Natural aquifer restoration at the discharge location will take at least several decades, even though groundwater flow rates and the potential for contaminant flushing are relatively high.

  13. Long term X-ray variability characteristics of the narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy RE J1034+396

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhury, K.; Chitnis, V. R.; Rao, A. R.; Singh, K. P.; Bhattacharyya, Sudip; Dewangan, G. C.; Chakraborty, S.; Chandra, S.; Stewart, G. C.; Mukerjee, K.; Dey, R. K.

    2018-05-01

    We present the results of our study of the long term X-ray variability characteristics of the Narrow Line Seyfert 1 galaxy RE J1034+396. We use data obtained from the AstroSat satellite along with the light curves obtained from XMM-Newton and Swift-XRT. We use the 0.3 - 7.0 keV and 3 - 20 keV data, respectively, from the SXT and the LAXPC of AstroSat. The X-ray spectra in the 0.3 - 20 keV region are well fit with a model consisting of a power-law and a soft excess described by a thermal-Compton emission with a large optical depth, consistent with the earlier reported results. We have examined the X-ray light curves in the soft and hard X-ray bands of SXT and LAXPC, respectively, and find that the variability is slightly larger in the hard band. To investigate the variability characteristics of this source at different time scales, we have used X-ray light curves obtained from XMM-Newton data (200 s to 100 ks range) and Swift-XRT data (1 day to 100 day range) and find that there are evidences to suggest that the variability sharply increases at longer time scales. We argue that the mass of the black hole in RE J1034+396 is likely to be ˜3 × 106 M⊙, based on the similarity of the observed QPO to the high frequency QPO seen in the Galactic black hole binary, GRS 1915+105.

  14. Dynamic sensorimotor planning during long-term sequence learning: the role of variability, response chunking and planning errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstynen, Timothy; Phillips, Jeff; Braun, Emily; Workman, Brett; Schunn, Christian; Schneider, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Many everyday skills are learned by binding otherwise independent actions into a unified sequence of responses across days or weeks of practice. Here we looked at how the dynamics of action planning and response binding change across such long timescales. Subjects (N = 23) were trained on a bimanual version of the serial reaction time task (32-item sequence) for two weeks (10 days total). Response times and accuracy both showed improvement with time, but appeared to be learned at different rates. Changes in response speed across training were associated with dynamic changes in response time variability, with faster learners expanding their variability during the early training days and then contracting response variability late in training. Using a novel measure of response chunking, we found that individual responses became temporally correlated across trials and asymptoted to set sizes of approximately 7 bound responses at the end of the first week of training. Finally, we used a state-space model of the response planning process to look at how predictive (i.e., response anticipation) and error-corrective (i.e., post-error slowing) processes correlated with learning rates for speed, accuracy and chunking. This analysis yielded non-monotonic association patterns between the state-space model parameters and learning rates, suggesting that different parts of the response planning process are relevant at different stages of long-term learning. These findings highlight the dynamic modulation of response speed, variability, accuracy and chunking as multiple movements become bound together into a larger set of responses during sequence learning.

  15. Use of natural and archaeological analogs to validate long - term behaviour of HLW glass in geological disposal conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gin, S.; Verney-Carron, A.; Libourel, G.

    2008-01-01

    Some old basaltic and Roman glasses have been studied in order to validate the predictive models developed for assessing the long-term behaviour of nuclear glass in geological repository conditions. Leaching behaviour of basaltic glass altered in both laboratory and natural environment conditions allows to validate the key mechanisms that control glass dissolution kinetics and the order of magnitude of glass packages lifetime In a stable clayey formation (French reference concept for a geological disposal of high level waste). The study of Roman glass blocks (with the same geometry as nuclear glass package) altered during 1800 years in a marine environment gives new insight on the basic mechanisms involved in confined media (fractures and small cracks). Results show the importance of the coupling between transport of reactive species and chemical reactions. This study, still in progress, would allow to validate the modelling of such a complex system. (author)

  16. Effects of long-term dharma-chan meditation on cardiorespiratory synchronization and heart rate variability behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chih-Hao; Lo, Pei-Chen

    2013-04-01

    Remarkable changes in cardiorespiratory interactions are frequently experienced by Chan meditation practitioners following years of practice. This study compares the results of our study on cardiorespiratory interactions for novice (control group) and experienced (experimental group) Chan meditation practitioners. The effectual co-action between the cardiac and respiratory systems was evaluated by the degree of cardiorespiratory phase synchronization (CRPS). In addition, an adaptive-frequency-range (AFR) scheme to reliably quantify heart rate variability (HRV) was developed for assessing the regulation of sympathetic-parasympathetic activity and the efficiency of pulmonary gas exchange. The enhanced HRV method, named HRVAFR, can resolve the issue of overestimating HRV under the condition of slow respiration rates, which is frequently encountered in studies on Chan meditation practitioners. In the comparison of the three data sets collected from the two groups, our findings resulted in innovative hypotheses to interpret the extraordinary process of the rejuvenation of cardiorespiratory functions through long-term Dharma-Chan meditation practice. Particularly, advanced practitioners exhibit a continuously high degree of cardiorespiratory phase synchronization, even during rapid breathing. Based on our post-experimental interview with advanced practitioners, the activation of inner Chakra energy, during the course of Chan-detachment practice, frequently induces perceptible physiological-mental reformation, including an efficient mechanism for regulating cardiorespiratory interactions.

  17. A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manfred A. Lange

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA, the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the next. Our approach was applied to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield and, hence, to isolate the effect of the observed climate change between 1961 and 2006 on three widely crops grown in three Mediterranean countries—namely wheat, corn and potato—using national-level crop yield observations’ time-series. Obtained results show that the proposed methodology provides us with a ground basis to improve substantially our understanding of crop yield response to climate change at a scale that is relevant to large-scale estimations of agricultural production and to food security analyses; and therefore to reduce uncertainties in estimations of potential climate change effects on agricultural production. Furthermore, a comparison of outputs of our methodology and FDA outputs yielded a difference in terms of maize production in Egypt, for example, that exceeds the production of some neighbouring countries.

  18. The long-term durability of low alkali cements. Evidence from new natural analog sites in Europe and North Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, W. Russell; Laine, Heini M.; Khoury, Hani

    2015-01-01

    The long-term durability of low alkali cements is of interest where they are under consideration as repository tunnel and exploration borehole seals and plugs. It is essential to have an appropriate understanding of their longevity to inform decisions on their potential use in a repository environment. Archaelogical analogues of low alkali cement have been studied for some time. Thomassin and Rassineux (1992), for example, reviewed some of the literature on Gallo-Roman cement-based materials and noted that one of the most impressive examples is the 1700 year old Roman mortar used in Hadrian's Wall (UK) which still contains substantial amounts of CSH (calcium silicate hydrate) compounds. These mortars were studied specifically with the behaviour of an ILW repository in mind (Jull and Lees 1990). However, plugs and seals will generally be required to be durable for longer than the few thousand years which can be accessed via archaeological analogues, so it is essential to turn to natural systems for evidence of longer term durability. To date, there have been no reported studies on natural low alkali cements. In principle, however, such cements should exist and the Bituminous Marl Formation, which hosts the natural OPC cements in Jordan (Pitty and Alexander, 2011), is a likely source. This Formation constitutes a widespread terrain which stretches from Syria in the north, through Israel and Jordan to Saudi Arabia in the south. The natural cement was formed by the combustion of organic rich limestones, a process which continues today. In Syria and northern Jordan, for example, the Formation is punctured by Late Oligocene to Quaternary volcanics so sites which include pozzolanic ash mixed with the Bituminous Marl exist and, on combustion, should produce natural low alkali cements. A site in northern Jordan is currently under investigation for evidence of long-term fresh groundwater/low alkali cement interaction and the preliminary results of the study will be

  19. The long-term durability of low alkali cements. Evidence from new natural analog sites in Europe and North Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexander, W. Russell [Bedrock Geosciences, Auenstein (Switzerland); Laine, Heini M. [Saanio and Riekkola Oy, Helsinki (Finland); Khoury, Hani [Jordan Univ., Amman (Jordan). Dept. of Geology

    2015-07-01

    The long-term durability of low alkali cements is of interest where they are under consideration as repository tunnel and exploration borehole seals and plugs. It is essential to have an appropriate understanding of their longevity to inform decisions on their potential use in a repository environment. Archaelogical analogues of low alkali cement have been studied for some time. Thomassin and Rassineux (1992), for example, reviewed some of the literature on Gallo-Roman cement-based materials and noted that one of the most impressive examples is the 1700 year old Roman mortar used in Hadrian's Wall (UK) which still contains substantial amounts of CSH (calcium silicate hydrate) compounds. These mortars were studied specifically with the behaviour of an ILW repository in mind (Jull and Lees 1990). However, plugs and seals will generally be required to be durable for longer than the few thousand years which can be accessed via archaeological analogues, so it is essential to turn to natural systems for evidence of longer term durability. To date, there have been no reported studies on natural low alkali cements. In principle, however, such cements should exist and the Bituminous Marl Formation, which hosts the natural OPC cements in Jordan (Pitty and Alexander, 2011), is a likely source. This Formation constitutes a widespread terrain which stretches from Syria in the north, through Israel and Jordan to Saudi Arabia in the south. The natural cement was formed by the combustion of organic rich limestones, a process which continues today. In Syria and northern Jordan, for example, the Formation is punctured by Late Oligocene to Quaternary volcanics so sites which include pozzolanic ash mixed with the Bituminous Marl exist and, on combustion, should produce natural low alkali cements. A site in northern Jordan is currently under investigation for evidence of long-term fresh groundwater/low alkali cement interaction and the preliminary results of the study will be

  20. Short and long term variability of the interrupter technique under field and standardised conditions in 3-6 year old children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beelen, RMJ; Smit, HA; van Strien, RT; Koopman, LP; Brussee, JE; Brunekreef, B; Gerritsen, J; Merkus, PJFM

    2003-01-01

    Background: The short and long term variability of the interrupter technique was assessed to determine whether interrupter resistance is a stable individual characteristic over time. The effect of field and standardised measurement conditions on the within-subject variability of the interrupter

  1. Serial Holter ST-segment monitoring after first acute myocardial infarction. Prevalence, variability, and long-term prognostic importance of transient myocardial ischemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mickley, H; Nielsen, J R; Berning, J

    1998-01-01

    Based on serial Holter monitoring performed 7 times within 3 years after a first acute myocardial infarction, we assessed the prevalence, variability and long-term clinical importance of transient myocardial ischemia (TMI) defined as episodes of ambulatory ST-segment depression. In all, 121...... consecutive male patients variability was found within and between patients...

  2. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  3. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  4. Passive acoustic monitoring of the temporal variability of odontocete tonal sounds from a long-term marine observatory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzu-Hao Lin

    Full Text Available The developments of marine observatories and automatic sound detection algorithms have facilitated the long-term monitoring of multiple species of odontocetes. Although classification remains difficult, information on tonal sound in odontocetes (i.e., toothed whales, including dolphins and porpoises can provide insights into the species composition and group behavior of these species. However, the approach to measure whistle contour parameters for detecting the variability of odontocete vocal behavior may be biased when the signal-to-noise ratio is low. Thus, methods for analyzing the whistle usage of an entire group are necessary. In this study, a local-max detector was used to detect burst pulses and representative frequencies of whistles within 4.5-48 kHz. Whistle contours were extracted and classified using an unsupervised method. Whistle characteristics and usage pattern were quantified based on the distribution of representative frequencies and the composition of whistle repertoires. Based on the one year recordings collected from the Marine Cable Hosted Observatory off northeastern Taiwan, odontocete burst pulses and whistles were primarily detected during the nighttime, especially after sunset. Whistle usage during the nighttime was more complex, and whistles with higher frequency were mainly detected during summer and fall. According to the multivariate analysis, the diurnal variation of whistle usage was primarily related to the change of mode frequency, diversity of representative frequency, and sequence complexity. The seasonal variation of whistle usage involved the previous three parameters, in addition to the diversity of whistle clusters. Our results indicated that the species and behavioral composition of the local odontocete community may vary among seasonal and diurnal cycles. The current monitoring platform facilitates the evaluation of whistle usage based on group behavior and provides feature vectors for species and

  5. How consistent are global long-term satellite LAI products in terms of interannual variability and trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.; Fang, H.

    2016-12-01

    Proper usage of global satellite LAI products requires comprehensive evaluation. To address this issue, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup proposed a four-stage validation hierarchy. During the past decade, great efforts have been made following this validation framework, mainly focused on absolute magnitude, seasonal trajectory, and spatial pattern of those global satellite LAI products. However, interannual variability and trends of global satellite LAI products have been investigated marginally. Targeting on this gap, we made an intercomparison between seven global satellite LAI datasets, including four short-term ones: MODIS C5, MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and three long-term products ones: LAI3g, GLASS, and GLOBMAP. We calculated global annual LAI time series for each dataset, among which we found substantial differences. During the overlapped period (2003 - 2011), MODIS C5, GLASS and GLOBMAP have positive correlation (r > 0.6) between each other, while MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and LAI3g are highly consistent (r > 0.7) in interannual variations. However, the previous three datasets show negative trends, all of which use MODIS C5 reflectance data, whereas the latter four show positive trends, using MODIS C6, SPOT/VGT, ENVISAT/MERIS, and NOAA/AVHRR, respectively. During the pre-MODIS era (1982 - 1999), the three AVHRR-based datasets (LAI3g, GLASS and GLOBMAP) agree well (r > 0.7), yet all of them show oscillation related with NOAA platform changes. In addition, both GLASS and GLOBMAP show clear cut-points around 2000 when they move from AVHRR to MODIS. Such inconsistency is also visible for GEOV1, which uses SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 before and after 2002. We further investigate the map-to-map deviations among these products. This study highlights that continuous sensor calibration and cross calibration are essential to obtain reliable global LAI time series.

  6. Functional adjustments of xylem anatomy to climatic variability: insights from long-term Ilex aquifolium tree-ring series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rita, Angelo; Cherubini, Paolo; Leonardi, Stefano; Todaro, Luigi; Borghetti, Marco

    2015-08-01

    The present study assessed the effects of climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits, including ring width, vessel size, vessel frequency and derived variables, i.e., potential hydraulic conductivity and xylem vulnerability to cavitation in Ilex aquifolium L. trees using long-term tree-ring time series obtained at two climatically contrasting sites, one mesic site in Switzerland (CH) and one drought-prone site in Italy (ITA). Relationships were explored by examining different xylem traits, and point pattern analysis was applied to investigate vessel clustering. We also used generalized additive models and bootstrap correlation functions to describe temperature and precipitation effects. Results indicated modified radial growth and xylem anatomy in trees over the last century; in particular, vessel frequency increased markedly at both sites in recent years, and all xylem traits examined, with the exception of xylem cavitation vulnerability, were higher at the CH mesic compared with the ITA drought site. A significant vessel clustering was observed at the ITA site, which could contribute to an enhanced tolerance to drought-induced embolism. Flat and negative relationships between vessel size and ring width were observed, suggesting carbon was not allocated to radial growth under conditions which favored stem water conduction. Finally, in most cases results indicated that climatic conditions influenced functional anatomical traits more substantially than tree radial growth, suggesting a crucial role of functional xylem anatomy in plant acclimation to future climatic conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Long-term rise of the Water Table in the Northeast US: Climate Variability, Land-Use Change, or Angry Beavers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutt, D. F.

    2011-12-01

    The scientific evidence that humans are directly influencing the Earth's natural climate is increasingly compelling. Numerous studies suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the seasonality of surface water availability thereby increasing the need for groundwater development to offset those shortages. Research suggests that the Northeast region of the U.S. is experiencing significant changes to its' natural climate and hydrologic systems. Previous analysis of a long-term regional compilation of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate variability in New England documented a wide range of variability. The investigation evaluated the physical mechanisms, natural variability and response of aquifers in New England using 100 long term groundwater monitoring stations with 20 or more years of data coupled with 67 stream gages, 75 precipitation stations, and 43 temperature stations. Groundwater trends were calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow anomalies to understand the sensitivity of the aquifer systems to change. Interestingly, a trend and regression analysis demonstrate that water level fluctuations are producing statistically significant results with increasing water levels over at least the past thirty years at most (80 out of 100) well sites. In this contribution we investigate the causal mechanisms behind the observed ground water level trends using site-by-site land-use change assessments, cluster analysis, and spatial analysis of beaver populations (a possible proxy for beaver activity). Regionally, average annual precipitation has been slightly increasing since 1900, with 95% of the stations having statistically significant positive trends. Despite this, no correlation is observed between the magnitude of the annual precipitation trends and the magnitude of the groundwater level changes. Land-use change throughout the region has primarily taken

  8. Boar variability in sperm cryo-tolerance after cooling of semen in different long-term extenders at various temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasilewska, K; Fraser, L

    2017-10-01

    This study investigated individual boar variability in the quality of pre-freeze (PF) and post-thaw (PT) semen cooled in different long-term (LT) extenders and for different holding times (HT). Sperm rich fractions were diluted with Androhep ® Plus (AHP), Androstar ® Plus (ASP), Safecell ® Plus (SCP) and TRIXcell ® Plus (TCP) extenders, stored for 2h at 17°C (HT 1) and additionally for 24h at 10°C (HT 2) and the samples were subsequently evaluated and frozen. Besides the analysis of CASA sperm variables, mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), plasma membrane integrity (PMI), normal apical ridge (NAR) acrosome integrity, and viability (YO-PRO-1 - /PI - ) of sperm were assessed in the PF and PT semen. Results indicated that boar, extender and HT group affected the sperm quality characteristics. There were great variations in PMOT and the sperm motion patterns of the PF semen among the boars. Differences in the HT groups of the PF semen, with respect to the sperm membrane integrity, were less marked among the boars. Consistent variations in TMOT and PMOT in the PT semen were observed among the boars, being greater in the HT 2 group. Most of the CASA-analyzed sperm motion patterns were greater in the HT 2 group of the PT semen. Furthermore, sperm MMP, PMI and viability were greater in the HT 2 group of the PT semen in most of the boars, while consistent differences were observed among the boars for sperm NAR acrosome integrity in either HT group. The significant effect of the cryopreservation process on the sperm membrane proteome was evident from the number of protein bands, detected in the electrophoretic profiles of sperm of the HT 1 and HT 2 groups. The electrophoretic profiles of the PF and PT semen among boars with poor and good semen freezability, however, differed with respect to the abundance and types of sperm membrane-associated proteins. The overall results of this study provided evidence that there are differences among boars in response to the

  9. Long-term variability in the X-ray emission of RX J0720.4-3125

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, C.P.; Vink, J.; Méndez, R.M.; Verbunt, F.

    2004-01-01

    We detect a gradual, long-term change in the shape of the X-ray spectrum of the isolated neutron star RX J0720.4-3125, such that the spectrum of the source can no longer be described as a blackbody spectrum. The change is accompanied by an energy-dependent change in the pulse profile. If the X-ray

  10. Long-term, Ecosystem-Scale Changes in the Southern Benguela Marine Pelagic Social-Ecological System: Interaction of Natural and Human Drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Astrid Jarre

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available South Africa's small pelagics fishery is currently the largest in volume and second largest in value in the southern Benguela. It exploits short-lived, small pelagic fishes such as anchovy (for reduction into fish meal and oil and sardine (for reduction as well as human consumption through canned products, and to a lesser extent redeye round herring and mesopelagics, largely for reduction. We explore the recent history (1940s to present of the social-ecological system around this fishery. The natural subsystem, at the scales of the ocean environment and the ecosystem, is characterized by high interannual and documented decadal-scale variability. We characterize the human social subsystem at the scales of the fishing industry, legislation, and west coast fishing towns, and demonstrate interdependencies between the natural and social subsystems by following system-scale changes. The pelagic fishing industry has evolved to deal with variability through consolidation, diversification, and range expansion. Legislation has increasingly looked for conservation of the resource while ensuring economic viability of the industry, and hence factory- and vessel-related jobs. Fishing communities under apartheid stayed largely dependent on company-generated infrastructure, combining seasonal employment in the fishing factories with inshore fishing, targeting rock lobster and line fish. While the pelagic industry persisted and communities survived, the resource base for both offshore and inshore fisheries gradually eroded. The advent of democracy in the mid-1990s brought allocation of long-term fishing rights to individuals or companies under conditions of depleted inshore resources aggravated by a shift in the distribution of pelagic fish away from the west coast towards the Cape south coast in the second half of the 1990s. The resultant loss of employment and fishing rights in the inshore has generated community coping strategies that include poaching and

  11. Minimal alteration of montmorillonite following long-term interaction with natural alkaline groundwater: Implications for geological disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milodowski, Antoni E.; Norris, Simon; Alexander, W.Russell

    2016-01-01

    Bentonite is one of the more safety-critical components of the engineered barrier system in the disposal concepts developed for many types of radioactive waste. Bentonite is utilised because of its favourable properties which include plasticity, swelling capacity, colloid filtration, low hydraulic conductivity, high retardation of key radionuclides and stability in geological environments of relevance to waste disposal. However, bentonite is unstable under the highly alkaline conditions induced by Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC: initial porewater pH > 13) and this has driven interest in using low alkali cements (initial porewater pH9-11) as an alternative to OPC. To build a robust safety case for a repository for radioactive wastes, it is important to have supporting natural analogue data to confirm understanding of the likely long-term performance of bentonite in these lower alkali conditions. In Cyprus, the presence of natural bentonite in association with natural alkaline groundwater permits the zones of potential bentonite/alkaline water reaction to be studied as an analogy of the potential reaction between low alkali cement leachates and the bentonite buffer in the repository. Here, the results indicate that a cation diffusion front has moved some metres into the bentonite whereas the bentonite reaction front is restricted to a few millimetres into the clay. This reaction front shows minimal reaction of the bentonite (volumetrically, less than 1% of the bentonite), with production of a palygorskite secondary phase following reaction of the primary smectites over time periods of 10"5–10"6 years. - Highlights: • Alkaline porewaters from cement and concrete could destabilise bentonite buffer in a repository. • Evidence utilised to examine processes over repository timescales. • Alkaline water from the Troodos ophiolite reacts with bentonite. • Waters exchange Ca for Na on bentonite, smectite reacts to form palygorskite. • Observations indicate

  12. Modelling the long-term isolation performance of natural and engineered geologic CO{sub 2} storage sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, J.W.; Nitao, J.J.; Morris, J.P. [California Univ., Livermore, CA (United States). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    2005-07-01

    Caprock integrity is an important constraint on the long-term performance of natural and engineered carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) sequestration sites. Influxes of CO{sub 2} can lead to concomitant geochemical alteration and geomechanical deformation of the caprock and degrade seal integrity. In this study, reactive transport modelling was used to assess the evolution of caprock permeability. The model was based on mathematical models of the coupled physical and chemical processes catalyzed by an influx event, along with supporting geochemical databases and a distinct-element geomechanical model. Geomechanical contribution was evaluated within a full system analysis of coupled hydrological and geochemical processes for Sleipner-like settings, and then analyzed as a function of hydrological processes, key reservoir properties, and CO{sub 2} influx parameters. The net effect of the geomechanical and geomechanical contributions on caprock integrity was then evaluated for both natural and engineered storage scenarios. Results of the study showed that CO{sub 2} influx-triggered geochemical and geomechanical processes act in opposition to enhance and degrade hydrodynamic seal capacity through aperture narrowing and widening of microfractures. The extent of geochemical enhancement was independent of the reservoir characteristics that distinguished saline-aquifer from enhanced oil recovery and CO{sub 2} sequestration settings. However, while the extent of geochemical alteration was nearly independent of the filling mode, geomechanical deformation processes were more pronounced in engineered storage scenarios. Results suggested that the secure caprocks of natural CO{sub 2} accumulation settings may be incapable of providing effective seals for engineered injection processes. The pressure increase associated with CO{sub 2} accumulation in any compartmentalized system resulted in the net geomechanical aperture widening of caprock microfractures. It was concluded that the

  13. LONG-TERM FOLLOW-UP OF PATIENTS WITH RETINITIS PIGMENTOSA TYPE 12 CAUSED BY CRB1 MUTATIONS : A Severe Phenotype With Considerable Interindividual Variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mathijssen, Inge B; Florijn, Ralph J; van den Born, L Ingeborgh; Zekveld-Vroon, Renate C; Ten Brink, Jacoline B; Plomp, Astrid S; Baas, Frank; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Bergen, Arthur A B; van Schooneveld, Mary J

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: To examine the long-term clinical course and variability in a large pedigree segregating CRB1 type autosomal recessive retinitis pigmentosa. METHODS: An observational case study of 30 patients with CRB1 type autosomal recessive retinitis pigmentosa, homozygous for the CRB1 c.3122T > C;

  14. Long-term passive restoration following fluvial deposition of sulphidic copper tailings: nature filters out the solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolic, Nina; Böcker, Reinhard; Nikolic, Miroslav

    2016-07-01

    Despite the growing popularity of ecological restoration approach, data on primary succession on toxic post-mining substrates, under site environmental conditions which considerably differ from the surrounding environment, are still scarce. Here, we studied the spontaneous vegetation development on an unusual locality created by long-term and large-scale fluvial deposition of sulphidic tailings from a copper mine in a pronouncedly xerothermic, calcareous surrounding. We performed multivariate analyses of soil samples (20 physical and chemical parameters) and vegetation samples (floristic and structural parameters in three types of occurring forests), collected along the pollution gradients throughout the affected floodplain. The nature can cope with two types of imposed constraints: (a) excessive Cu concentrations and (b) very low pH, combined with nutrient deficiency. The former will still allow convergence to the original vegetation, while the latter will result in novel, depauperate assemblages of species typical for cooler and moister climate. Our results for the first time demonstrate that with the increasing severity of environmental filtering, the relative importance of the surrounding vegetation for primary succession strongly decreases.

  15. Application of Fiscal Incentives for Development of East Natuna Gas Field for Long-Term National Natural Gas Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marwan Batubara

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available East Natuna gas field, which has proven reserves of 46 trillion cubic feet, is projected to meet long-term natural gas needs. However, CO2-content of the gas reserves reaches 71%, leading to expensive development costs. This research investigates the feasibility of the field based on several fiscal incentives. Firstly, gas supply-demand until year 2040 was analyzed. Then, based on the analysis, the field was developed using high CO2 gas separation technology to produce gas of 1300 MMSCFD in 2023, 2600 MMSCFD in 2031, and 3900 MMSCFD in 2039. Finally, the economic feasibility was assessed using cash flow analysis in accordance with Indonesia’s production sharing contract scheme. The results show that the supply-demand gap continues to increase and thus the development is urgently needed. The development cost is estimated around US$ 27.59 billion. The gas selling prices are assumed at US$ 8/MMBTU for wellhead, US$ 11/MMBTU for pipelines, and US$ 11/MMBTU for LNG. To achieve minimum IRR value of 12%, the government needs to offer incentives of 30-year contract period, profit sharing of 55%: 45%, first tranche petroleum to 10%, and tax holiday of 10 years. Toll fee for Natuna-Cirebon pipeline is US$ 2.3/MMBTU at IRR of 12.6%.

  16. Long-term Hyperglycemia Naturally Induces Dental Caries but Not Periodontal Disease in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetic Rodents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakahara, Yutaka; Ozaki, Kiyokazu; Matsuura, Tetsuro

    2017-11-01

    Periodontal disease (PD) in patients with diabetes is described as the sixth complication of diabetes. We have previously shown that diabetes increases dental caries, and carious inflammation might have a strong effect on the adjacent periodontal tissue in diabetic rodent models. However, the possibility that hyperglycemia may induce PD in diabetic animals could not be completely eliminated. The goal of this study was to confirm the presence of PD in diabetic animal models by preventing carious inflammation with fluoride administration. F344 rats injected with alloxan (type 1 diabetic model) and db/db mice (type 2 diabetic model) were given either tap water alone or tap water containing fluoride. A cariostatic effect of fluoride was evident in the diabetic animals. Meanwhile, fluoride treatment drastically attenuated periodontal inflammation in addition to preventing dental caries. Furthermore, with fluoride treatment, periodontitis was notably nonexistent in the periodontal tissue surrounding the normal molars, whereas the caries-forming process was clearly observed in the teeth that were enveloped with persistent periodontitis, suggesting that enhanced periodontal inflammation might have been derived from the dental caries in the diabetic rodents rather than from the PD. In conclusion, long-term hyperglycemia naturally induces dental caries but not PD in type 1 and type 2 diabetic rodents. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

  17. Long-term exposure to mobile communication radiation: An analysis of time-variability of electric field level in GSM900 down-link channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miclaus, S.; Bechet, P.; Gheorghevici, M.

    2013-01-01

    Interest for knowing long-term human exposure levels due to mobile communications has increased in the last years. It has been shown that short-term exposure assessment made under standard procedural restrictions is not reliable when it comes to conclusions on long-term exposure levels. The present work is the result of a several week analysis of time variability of electric field level inside traffic and control channels of the GSM900 mobile communication down-link band and it indicates that a temporal model to allow future predictions of exposure on the long run is obtainable. Collecting, processing and statistically analysing the data provide expression of the maximum and weighted field strengths and their evolution in time. Specific electromagnetic footprints of the channels have been extracted, differentiations between their characteristics have been emphasised and practical advice is provided, with the scope of contributing to the development of reliable procedures for long-term exposure assessment. (authors)

  18. Differentially expressed genes linked to natural variation in long-term memory formation in Cotesia parasitic wasps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joke J. F. A. Van Vugt

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Even though learning and memory are universal traits in the Animal Kingdom, closely related species reveal substantial variation in learning rate and memory dynamics. To determine the genetic background of this natural variation, we studied two congeneric parasitic wasp species, Cotesia glomerata and C. rubecula, which lay their eggs in caterpillars of the large and small cabbage white butterfly. A successful egg laying event serves as an unconditioned stimulus in a classical conditioning paradigm, where plant odors become associated to the encounter of a suitable host caterpillar. Depending on the host species, the number of conditioning trials and the parasitic wasp species, three different types of transcription-dependent long-term memory (LTM and one type of transcription-independent, anesthesia-resistant memory (ARM can be distinguished. To identify transcripts underlying these differences in memory formation, we isolated mRNA from parasitic wasp heads at three different time points between induction and consolidation of each of the four memory types, and for each sample three biological replicates, where after strand-specific paired-end 100 bp deep sequencing. Transcriptomes were assembled de novo and differential expression was determined for each memory type and time point after conditioning, compared to unconditioned wasps. Most differentially expressed (DE genes and antisense transcripts were only DE in one of the LTM types. Among the DE genes that were DE in two or more LTM types, were many protein kinases and phosphatases, small GTPases, receptors and ion channels. Some genes were DE in opposing directions between any of the LTM memory types and ARM, suggesting that ARM in Cotesia requires the transcription of genes inhibiting LTM or vice versa. We discuss our findings in the context of neuronal functioning, including RNA splicing and transport, epigenetic regulation, neurotransmitter/peptide synthesis and antisense transcription. In

  19. Long-Term Efficacy of Various Natural or "Green" Insecticides against Bed Bugs: A Double-Blind Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, Jerome

    2014-11-28

    Bed bugs are resurging throughout the world, and, thus, effective pest control strategies are constantly needed. A few studies have evaluated 25(b) and other natural, or so-called "green" products, as well as over-the-counter insecticides for bed bugs, but additional studies are needed to determine efficacy of bed bug control products. This double-blinded research project was initiated to examine long-term effectiveness of six commercially available natural or "green" insecticides against bed bugs and to compare them with three known traditional residual products. Water was used as a control. Products were evaluated against both susceptible and resistant strains of bed bugs (1200 bugs each), and two different substrates were used. Temprid(®) (Bayer Corporation, Monheim, Germany), Transport(®) (FMC Corp., Philadelphia, PA, USA), Invader(®) (FMC Corporation, Philadelphia, PA USA), Cimexa(®) (Rockwell Laboratories, Kansas City, MO, USA), and BBT-2000(®) (Swepe-Tite LLC, Tupelo, MS, USA) were the only products which showed any substantial (>40%) bed bug control upon exposure to treated substrates after the six-month waiting period, although results with the resistant bed bug strain were much reduced. Alpine dust(®) (BASF Corporation, Florham Park, NJ, USA) killed 27% of bed bugs or less, depending on strain and substrate. EcoRaider(®) (North Bergen, NJ, USA) and Mother Earth D(®) (Whitmire Microgen, Florham Park, NJ, USA) (diatomaceous earth) produced 11% control or less. Cimi-Shield Protect(®) (Pest Barrier, Carson, CA, USA) showed no activity against bed bugs in this study. Analysis using SAS software showed a three-way interaction between treatment, substrate, and bed bug strain (Numerator DF 9; Denominator DF 80; F = 4.90; p < 0.0001).

  20. Genetic stability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during long-term infections in natural hosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Carvajal, Lisbeth; Pauszek, Steven J; Ahmed, Zaheer; Farooq, Umer; Naeem, Khalid; Shabman, Reed S; Stockwell, Timothy B; Rodriguez, Luis L

    2018-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe infection caused by a picornavirus that affects livestock and wildlife. Persistence in ruminants is a well-documented feature of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) pathogenesis and a major concern for disease control. Persistently infected animals harbor virus for extended periods, providing a unique opportunity to study within-host virus evolution. This study investigated the genetic dynamics of FMDV during persistent infections of naturally infected Asian buffalo. Using next-generation sequencing (NGS) we obtained 21 near complete FMDV genome sequences from 12 sub-clinically infected buffalo over a period of one year. Four animals yielded only one virus isolate and one yielded two isolates of different serotype suggesting a serial infection. Seven persistently infected animals yielded more than one virus of the same serotype showing a long-term intra-host viral genetic divergence at the consensus level of less than 2.5%. Quasi-species analysis showed few nucleotide variants and non-synonymous substitutions of progeny virus despite intra-host persistence of up to 152 days. Phylogenetic analyses of serotype Asia-1 VP1 sequences clustered all viruses from persistent animals with Group VII viruses circulating in Pakistan in 2011, but distinct from those circulating on 2008-2009. Furthermore, signature amino acid (aa) substitutions were found in the antigenically relevant VP1 of persistent viruses compared with viruses from 2008-2009. Intra-host purifying selective pressure was observed, with few codons in structural proteins undergoing positive selection. However, FMD persistent viruses did not show a clear pattern of antigenic selection. Our findings provide insight into the evolutionary dynamics of FMDV populations within naturally occurring subclinical and persistent infections that may have implications to vaccination strategies in the region.

  1. Genetic stability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during long-term infections in natural hosts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisbeth Ramirez-Carvajal

    Full Text Available Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD is a severe infection caused by a picornavirus that affects livestock and wildlife. Persistence in ruminants is a well-documented feature of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV pathogenesis and a major concern for disease control. Persistently infected animals harbor virus for extended periods, providing a unique opportunity to study within-host virus evolution. This study investigated the genetic dynamics of FMDV during persistent infections of naturally infected Asian buffalo. Using next-generation sequencing (NGS we obtained 21 near complete FMDV genome sequences from 12 sub-clinically infected buffalo over a period of one year. Four animals yielded only one virus isolate and one yielded two isolates of different serotype suggesting a serial infection. Seven persistently infected animals yielded more than one virus of the same serotype showing a long-term intra-host viral genetic divergence at the consensus level of less than 2.5%. Quasi-species analysis showed few nucleotide variants and non-synonymous substitutions of progeny virus despite intra-host persistence of up to 152 days. Phylogenetic analyses of serotype Asia-1 VP1 sequences clustered all viruses from persistent animals with Group VII viruses circulating in Pakistan in 2011, but distinct from those circulating on 2008-2009. Furthermore, signature amino acid (aa substitutions were found in the antigenically relevant VP1 of persistent viruses compared with viruses from 2008-2009. Intra-host purifying selective pressure was observed, with few codons in structural proteins undergoing positive selection. However, FMD persistent viruses did not show a clear pattern of antigenic selection. Our findings provide insight into the evolutionary dynamics of FMDV populations within naturally occurring subclinical and persistent infections that may have implications to vaccination strategies in the region.

  2. Environmental management: Integrating ecological evaluation, remediation, restoration, natural resource damage assessment and long-term stewardship on contaminated lands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, Joanna

    2008-01-01

    Ecological evaluation is essential for remediation, restoration, and Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA), and forms the basis for many management practices. These include determining status and trends of biological, physical, or chemical/radiological conditions, conducting environmental impact assessments, performing remedial actions should remediation fail, managing ecosystems and wildlife, and assessing the efficacy of remediation, restoration, and long-term stewardship. The objective of this paper is to explore the meanings of these assessments, examine the relationships among them, and suggest methods of integration that will move environmental management forward. While remediation, restoration, and NRDA, among others, are often conducted separately, it is important to integrate them for contaminated land where the risks to ecoreceptors (including humans) can be high, and the potential damage to functioning ecosystems great. Ecological evaluations can range from inventories of local plants and animals, determinations of reproductive success of particular species, levels of contaminants in organisms, kinds and levels of effects, and environmental impact assessments, to very formal ecological risk assessments for a chemical or other stressor. Such evaluations can range from the individual species to populations, communities, ecosystems or the landscape scale. Ecological evaluations serve as the basis for making decisions about the levels and kinds of remediation, the levels and kinds of restoration possible, and the degree and kinds of natural resource injuries that have occurred because of contamination. Many different disciplines are involved in ecological evaluation, including biologists, conservationists, foresters, restoration ecologists, ecological engineers, economists, hydrologist, and geologists. Since ecological evaluation forms the basis for so many different types of environmental management, it seems reasonable to integrate management options

  3. A Neuro-fuzzy-stochastic frontier analysis approach for long-term natural gas consumption forecasting and behavior analysis: The cases of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and UAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Asadzadeh, S.M.; Saberi, M.; Nadimi, V.; Tajvidi, A.; Sheikalishahi, M.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper presents a unique approach for long-term natural gas consumption estimation. → It is applied to selected Arab countries to show its superiority and applicability. → It may be used for other real cases for optimum gas consumption estimation. → It is compared with current studies to show its advantages. → It is capable of dealing with complexity, ambiguity, fuzziness, and randomness. -- Abstract: This paper presents an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system-stochastic frontier analysis (ANFIS-SFA) approach for long-term natural gas (NG) consumption prediction and analysis of the behavior of NG consumption. The proposed models consist of input variables of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population (POP). Six distinct models based on different inputs are defined. All of trained ANFIS are then compared with respect to mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). To meet the best performance of the intelligent based approaches, data are pre-processed (scaled) and finally the outputs are post-processed (returned to its original scale). To show the applicability and superiority of the integrated ANFIS-SFA approach, gas consumption in four Middle Eastern countries i.e. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and United Arab Emirates is forecasted and analyzed based on the data of the time period 1980-2007. With the aid of autoregressive model, GDP and population are projected for the period 2008-2015. These projected data are used as the input of ANFIS model to predict the gas consumption in the selected countries for 2008-2015. SFA is then used to examine the behavior of gas consumption in the past and also to make insights for the forthcoming years. The ANFIS-SFA approach is capable of dealing with complexity, uncertainty, and randomness as well as several other unique features discussed in this paper.

  4. Long-term contracts for European gas supply - an empirical analysis of the changing nature of pipeline and LNG-contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumann, Anne

    2005-01-01

    As the structure of the European natural gas market is evolving towards more competition and more diverse market structures than before, the nature of the long-term contracts for European natural gas supply is also undergoing change. Experience from other liberalization processes, such as in the U.S. or the UK, suggests that the importance of long-term contracts diminishes over time, but that they remain an important element of supply. In Europe long-term contracts are still considered as a firm basis for investment and financing of capital-intensive infrastructure with a high degree of asset and relationship-specificity. Literature on institutional economics also suggests that long-term contracts act as a device to overcome the ''hold-up'' problem of relationship-specific investments in infrastructure (Klein, Crawford, and Alchian, 1987; Williamson, 1975, 1985). On the other hand, Hartley and Brito (2002) show that more flexible markets also imply a lower degree of asset specificity, thus requiring less fixed contracts. This paper explores the changing nature of long-term contracts for European natural gas supply, with a particular focus on differences between contracts for pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Traditionally, Europe relied on very long-term contracts for pipeline gas (Russia, Norway, Algeria). More recently, increasing LNG supplies are contemplated as a more flexible source of natural gas: The international LNG market is becoming more flexible, LNG can be sourced from a variety of sellers, and the cost of LNG supplies and infrastructure is coming down rapidly (Jensen, 2004). Thus, the evaluation of investing in LNG infrastructure (and the so bought flexibility and possibility of arbitraging profits) may be higher than committing to fixed/predetermined flows of pipeline gas. We ask whether this is reflected in the observed contracts. The paper is based on standard contract theory (Bolton and Dewatripont, 2005). We apply a microeconomic

  5. Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

    2018-02-01

    In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

  6. Untangling individual variation in natural populations: ecological, genetic and epigenetic correlates of long-term inequality in herbivory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, C M; Bazaga, P

    2011-04-01

    Individual variation in ecologically important features of organisms is a crucial element in ecology and evolution, yet disentangling its underlying causes is difficult in natural populations. We applied a genomic scan approach using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers to quantify the genetic basis of long-term individual differences in herbivory by mammals at a wild population of the violet Viola cazorlensis monitored for two decades. In addition, methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) analyses were used to investigate the association between browsing damage and epigenetic characteristics of individuals, an aspect that has been not previously explored for any wild plant. Structural equation modelling was used to identify likely causal structures linking genotypes, epigenotypes and herbivory. Individuals of V. cazorlensis differed widely in the incidence of browsing mammals over the 20-year study period. Six AFLP markers (1.6% of total) were significantly related to herbivory, accounting altogether for 44% of population-wide variance in herbivory levels. MSAP analyses revealed considerable epigenetic variation among individuals, and differential browsing damage was significantly related to variation in multilocus epigenotypes. In addition, variation across plants in epigenetic characteristics was related to variation in several herbivory-related AFLP markers. Statistical comparison of alternative causal models suggested that individual differences in herbivory are the outcome of a complex causal structure where genotypes and epigenotypes are interconnected and have direct and indirect effects on herbivory. Insofar as methylation states of MSAP markers influential on herbivory are transgenerationally heritable, herbivore-driven evolutionary changes at the study population will involve correlated changes in genotypic and epigenotypic distributions. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Long-term solute transport through thick Cretaceous shale in the Williston Basin Canada using naturally-occurring tracer profiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendry, M. Jim; Novakowski, Kent; Smith, Laura; Koehler, Geoff; Wassenaar, L.I.

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. The hydrogeologic evolution of sedimentary basins is generally determined from hydraulic and chemical data collected from aquifers. Hydraulic and chemical data from aquitards, which constitute a much greater volume of basins than aquifers and provide important controls on water and solute transport in the basins, are generally not collected nor studied. In this study we characterized the paleo-groundwater flow and solute transport controls through a vertical section of Cretaceous sediments in the Williston Basin, Canada located near Esterhazy, Saskatchewan. It consists of 384 m of thick argillaceous sediment (aquitard) overlying 93 m of heterogeneous calcareous silt, shale and sandstone (Mannville Fm.; aquifer). Paleo-hydrologic conditions were determined by interpreting high-resolution depth profiles of natural tracers of water isotopes (δ 18 O and (δ 2 H) and Cl- measured on (1) continuous core samples through the aquitard, upper aquifer, and thin Quaternary sediments, (2) water samples collected from monitoring wells installed in the aquifer and the Quaternary sediments, and (3) water samples collected from mine shaft inflows to 900 m below ground. 1D numerical transport modeling reproduced the measured profiles and yielded valuable information on the large-scale and long-term transport behavior in both the Cretaceous aquitard and the Basin. In the modeling, the shapes of the tracer profiles was explained by diffusion with paleo-events identified from the modeling including the introduction of fresher water into the aquifer possibly from the onset of glaciation (activation of the lower boundary) about 1 Ma ago and the impact of the most recent deglaciation about 10 ka ago (activation of the upper boundary). These findings show that the hydrogeologic conditions in deep, extensive basins, such as the Williston Basin, cannot be assumed to be static over geologic time. (authors)

  8. Natural sorptive barriers in Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for long-term isolation of high-level waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bish, D.L.; Vaniman, D.T.; Rundberg, R.S.; Wolfsberg, K.; Daniels, W.R.; Broxton, D.E.

    1984-01-01

    There are several sorptive phases occurring naturally in the silicic tuffs at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, that can aid in the long-term isolation of high-level wastes. These phases include hydrated volcanic glasses, smectites and zeolites. Los Alamos has a continuing programme to investigate the mineralogy and stratigraphy of the tuffs at Yucca Mountain. In addition, extensive data have been obtained on the sorptive behaviour of technetium, strontium, caesium, barium, cerium, europium, uranium, neptunium, plutonium and americium on the minerals in tuffs. Sorption of elements by ion-exchange processes is high in tuffs containing smectite and the zeolites clinoptilolite-heulandite and mordenite. Moreover, sorption correlates with abundances of these minerals. Sorption is not as high for the zeolite analcime and for volcanic glass. Elements that may not sorb by ion exchange, e.g. plutonium, also tend to be sorbed when the zeolite abundance is high, but the correlations are less clearly defined. Because of the correlation between sorptive capacity and mineralogy, an accurate knowledge of mineral distribution and stratigraphy is essential. The distribution of hydrated glasses is stratigraphically controlled, and the glasses occur in narrow unaltered horizons as vitrophyres and as vitric tuff. Although glasses are of minor importance as sorptive phases, they are very reactive and can alter to other minerals if heated in the presence of water. Smectite clays are reversibly expandable and are widespread in tuffs, but their beneficial properties can be modified by prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures. The zeolites clinoptilolite-heulandite and mordenite occur in high concentrations in silicic tuffs, mostly as secondary alterations of non-welded and poorly welded tuffs; their distribution is therefore stratigraphically controlled

  9. Facilitating Long-Term Recovery from Natural Disasters: Psychosocial Programming for Tsunami-Affected Schools of Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastasi, Bonnie K.; Jayasena, Asoka; Summerville, Meredith; Borja, Amanda P.

    2011-01-01

    This article reports the findings of a school-based intervention project conducted in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka 15 to 18 months after the December 2004 Tsunami. The work responds to the need for culturally relevant programming to address long-term psychosocial recovery of children and adolescents affected by large scale disasters. Program…

  10. The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

    2018-02-01

    Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

  11. Long-term monitoring programme of the hydrological variability in the Mediterranean Sea: a first overview of the HYDROCHANGES network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Schroeder

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The long-term monitoring of basic hydrological parameters (temperature and salinity, collected as time series with adequate temporal resolution (i.e. with a sampling interval allowing the resolution of all important timescales in key places of the Mediterranean Sea (straits and channels, zones of dense water formation, deep parts of the basins, constitute a priority in the context of global changes. This led CIESM (The Mediterranean Science Commission to support, since 2002, the HYDROCHANGES programme (http//www.ciesm.org/marine/programs/hydrochanges.htm, a network of autonomous conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD sensors, deployed on mainly short and easily manageable subsurface moorings, within the core of a certain water mass. The HYDROCHANGES strategy is twofold and develops on different scales. To get information about long-term changes of hydrological characteristics, long time series are needed. But before these series are long enough they allow the detection of links between them at shorter timescales that may provide extremely valuable information about the functioning of the Mediterranean Sea. The aim of this paper is to present the history of the programme and the current set-up of the network (monitored sites, involved groups as well as to provide for the first time an overview of all the time series collected under the HYDROCHANGES umbrella, discussing the results obtained thanks to the programme.

  12. The natural history of multiple sclerosis: a geographically based study 10: relapses and long-term disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scalfari, Antonio; Neuhaus, Anneke; Degenhardt, Alexandra; Rice, George P; Muraro, Paolo A; Daumer, Martin; Ebers, George C

    2010-07-01

    The relationship of relapses to long-term disability in multiple sclerosis is uncertain. Relapse reduction is a common therapeutic target but clinical trials have shown dissociation between relapse suppression and disability accumulation. We investigated relationships between relapses and disability progression for outcomes of requiring assistance to walk, being bedridden and dying from multiple sclerosis [Disability Status Scale 6, 8, 10] by analysing 28 000 patient-years of evolution in 806-bout onset patients from the London Ontario natural history cohort. Having previously shown no effect of relapse frequency among progressive multiple sclerosis subtypes, here we examined these measures in the pre-progressive or relapsing-remitting phase. Survival was compared among groups stratified by (i) early relapses--number of attacks during the first 2 years of multiple sclerosis; (ii) length of first inter-attack interval; (iii) interval between onset and Disability Status Scale 3 (moderate disability); (iv) number of attacks from the third year of disease up to onset of progression; and (v) during the entire relapsing-remitting phase. Early clinical features can predict hard disability outcomes. Frequent relapses in the first 2 years and shorter first inter-attack intervals predicted shorter times to reach hard disability endpoints. Attack frequencies, in the first 2 years, of 1 versus >or=3, gave differences of 7.6, 12.8 and 20.3 years in times from disease onset to Disability Status Scale 6, 8 and 10, respectively. Time to Disability Status Scale 3 highly and independently predicted time to Disability Status Scale 6, 8 and 10. In contrast, neither total number of relapsing-remitting phase attacks nor of relapses experienced during the relapsing-remitting phase after the second year up to onset of progression showed a deleterious effect on times from disease onset, from progression onset and from Disability Status Scale 3 to these hard endpoints. The failure of a

  13. Long-term variability of heat waves in Argentina and recurrence probability of the severe 2008 heat wave in Buenos Aires

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rusticucci, M.; Kyselý, Jan; Almeira, G.; Lhotka, Ondřej

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 124, č. 3 (2016), s. 679-689 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7AMB15AR001 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat waves * long-term variability * climate extremes Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.640, year: 2016 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-015-1445-7

  14. A trade-off between natural and acquired antibody production in a reptile: implications for long-term resistance to disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska C. Sandmeier

    2012-08-01

    Vertebrate immune systems are understood to be complex and dynamic, with trade-offs among different physiological components (e.g., innate and adaptive immunity within individuals and among taxonomic lineages. Desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii immunised with ovalbumin (OVA showed a clear trade-off between levels of natural antibodies (NAbs; innate immune function and the production of acquired antibodies (adaptive immune function. Once initiated, acquired antibody responses included a long-term elevation in antibodies persisting for more than one year. The occurrence of either (a high levels of NAbs or (b long-term elevations of acquired antibodies in individual tortoises suggests that long-term humoral resistance to pathogens may be especially important in this species, as well as in other vertebrates with slow metabolic rates, concomitantly slow primary adaptive immune responses, and long life-spans.

  15. Long term stability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

  16. Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danladi Ali

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter

  17. PEBS: an international challenge for improve understanding of the natural barriers to isolate long-term radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaus, I.

    2015-01-01

    The radioactive materials have a wide range of applications ranging from nuclear reactors to the use of isotopes in industries, medicine or research centres. These technologies generate waste whose disposal systems are becoming more sophisticated, to the point of using artificial barriers able to isolate them from contact with other materials, precipitation, surface water and groundwater subsurface. In this context, the European project long term Performance of the engineered Barrier Systems (PeBS), funded by the seventh framework (Fp7) Euratom and has counted with the participation of ENRESA, reviewed the evolution of the performance of sealing and barrier systems of artificial barriers in relevant time scales through the development of a comprehensive method that includes experiments, models, and a consideration of the potential impacts of long-term security functions. (Author)

  18. Long-Term Memory: A Natural Mechanism for the Clustering of Extreme Events and Anomalous Residual Times in Climate Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Eichner, Jan F.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Havlin, Shlomo

    2005-01-01

    We study the statistics of the return intervals between extreme events above a certain threshold in long-term persistent records. We find that the long-term memory leads (i)to a stretched exponential distribution of the return intervals, (ii)to a pronounced clustering of extreme events, and (iii)to an anomalous behavior of the mean residual time to the next event that depends on the history and increases with the elapsed time in a counterintuitive way. We present an analytical scaling approach and demonstrate that all these features can be seen in long climate records. The phenomena should also occur in heartbeat records, Internet traffic, and stock market volatility and have to be taken into account for an efficient risk evaluation.

  19. Short- and long-term variability of spectral solar UV irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece: effects of changes in aerosols, total ozone and clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Fountoulakis

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we discuss the short- and the long-term variability of spectral UV irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece, using a long, quality-controlled data set from two Brewer spectrophotometers. Long-term changes in spectral UV irradiance at 307.5, 324 and 350 nm for the period 1994–2014 are presented for different solar zenith angles and discussed in association with changes in total ozone column (TOC, aerosol optical depth (AOD and cloudiness observed in the same period. Positive changes in annual mean anomalies of UV irradiance, ranging from 2 to 6 % per decade, have been detected both for clear- and all-sky conditions. The changes are generally greater for larger solar zenith angles and for shorter wavelengths. For clear-skies, these changes are, in most cases, statistically significant at the 95 % confidence limit. Decreases in the aerosol load and weakening of the attenuation by clouds lead to increases in UV irradiance in the summer, of 7–9 % per decade for 64° solar zenith angle. The increasing TOC in winter counteracts the effect of decreasing AOD for this particular season, leading to small, statistically insignificant, negative long-term changes in irradiance at 307.5 nm. Annual mean UV irradiance levels are increasing from 1994 to 2006 and remain relatively stable thereafter, possibly due to the combined changes in the amount and optical properties of aerosols. However, no statistically significant corresponding turning point has been detected in the long-term changes of AOD. The absence of signatures of changes in AOD in the short-term variability of irradiance in the UV-A may have been caused by changes in the single scattering albedo of aerosols, which may counteract the effects of changes in AOD on irradiance. The anti-correlation between the year-to-year variability of the irradiance at 307.5 nm and TOC is clear and becomes clearer as the AOD decreases.

  20. SHORT- AND LONG-TERM RADIO VARIABILITY OF YOUNG STARS IN THE ORION NEBULA CLUSTER AND MOLECULAR CLOUD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivilla, V. M.; Martín-Pintado, J.; Chandler, C. J.; Sanz-Forcada, J.; Jiménez-Serra, I.; Forbrich, J.

    2015-01-01

    We have used the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) to carry out multi-epoch radio continuum monitoring of the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC) and the background Orion Molecular Cloud (OMC; 3 epochs at Q band and 11 epochs at Ka band). Our new observations reveal the presence of 19 radio sources, mainly concentrated in the Trapezium Cluster and the Orion Hot Core (OHC) regions. With the exception of the Becklin–Neugebauer object and source C (which we identify here as dust emission associated with a proplyd) the sources all show radio variability between the different epochs. We have found tentative evidence of variability in the emission from the massive object related to source I. Our observations also confirm radio flux density variations of a factor >2 on timescales of hours to days in five sources. One of these flaring sources, OHC-E, has been detected for the first time. We conclude that the radio emission can be attributed to two different components: (i) highly variable (flaring) non-thermal radio gyrosynchrotron emission produced by electrons accelerated in the magnetospheres of pre-main-sequence low-mass stars and (ii) thermal emission due to free–free radiation from ionized gas and/or heated dust around embedded massive objects and proplyds. Combining our sample with other radio monitoring at 8.3 GHz and the X-ray catalog provided by Chandra, we have studied the properties of the entire sample of radio/X-ray stars in the ONC/OMC region (51 sources). We have found several hints of a relation between the X-ray activity and the mechanisms responsible for (at least some fraction of) the radio emission. We have estimated a radio flaring rate of ∼0.14 flares day −1 in the dense stellar cluster embedded in the OHC region. This suggests that radio flares are more common events during the first stages of stellar evolution than previously thought. The advent of improved sensitivity with the new VLA and ALMA will dramatically increase the number of stars in

  1. Long-Term Variability of UV Irradiance in the Moscow Region according to Measurement and Modeling Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chubarova, N. E.; Pastukhova, A. S.; Galin, V. Ya.; Smyshlyaev, S. P.

    2018-03-01

    We have found distinct long-period changes in erythemal UV radiation ( Q er) characterized by a pronounced decrease at the end of the 1970s and a statistically significant positive trend of more than 5%/10 years since 1979 over the territory of the Moscow region according to the measurements and reconstruction model. The positive Q er trend is shown to be associated mainly with a decrease in the effective cloud amount and total ozone content (TOC). Due to these variations, UV resources have significantly changed in spring for the population with the most vulnerable skin type I, which means a transition from the UV optimum to UV moderate excess conditions. The simulation experiments using the INM-RSHU chemistry climate model (CCM) for several scenarios with and without anthropogenic factors have revealed that the variations in the anthropogenic emissions of halogens have the most significant impact on the variability of TOC and Q er. Among natural factors, noticeable effects are observed due to volcanic aerosol. The calculations of the cloud transmittance of Q er are generally consistent with the measurements; however, they do not reproduce the observed value of the positive trend.

  2. Risk of long-term hot flashes after natural menopause: evidence from the Penn Ovarian Aging Study cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Ellen W; Sammel, Mary D; Sanders, Richard J

    2014-09-01

    This study aims to estimate the risk of hot flashes relative to natural menopause and to evaluate the associations of hormone levels, behavioral variables, and demographic variables with the risk of hot flashes after menopause. We performed annual assessment of 255 women who were premenopausal at baseline and reached natural menopause within 16 years of follow-up. The prevalence of moderate/severe hot flashes increased in each premenopausal year, reaching a peak of 46% in the first 2 years after the final menstrual period (FMP). Hot flashes decreased slowly after menopause and did not return to premenopausal levels until 9 years after the FMP. The mean (SD) duration of moderate/severe hot flashes after the FMP was 4.6 (2.9) years (for any hot flashes, 4.9 [3.1] y). One third of women at 10 years or more after menopause continued to experience moderate/severe hot flashes. African-American women (obese and nonobese) and obese white women had significantly greater risks of hot flashes compared with nonobese white women (interaction, P = 0.01). In multivariable analysis, increasing follicle-stimulating hormone levels before the FMP (P menopause; more than one third of women observed for 10 years or more after menopause have moderate/severe hot flashes. Continuation of hot flashes for more than 5 years after menopause underscores the importance of determining individual risks/benefits when selecting hormone or nonhormone therapy for menopausal symptoms.

  3. The MIT/OSO 7 catalog of X-ray sources - Intensities, spectra, and long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markert, T. H.; Laird, F. N.; Clark, G. W.; Hearn, D. R.; Sprott, G. F.; Li, F. K.; Bradt, H. V.; Lewin, W. H. G.; Schnopper, H. W.; Winkler, P. F.

    1979-01-01

    This paper is a summary of the observations of the cosmic X-ray sky performed by the MIT 1-40-keV X-ray detectors on OSO 7 between October 1971 and May 1973. Specifically, mean intensities or upper limits of all third Uhuru or OSO 7 cataloged sources (185 sources) in the 3-10-keV range are computed. For those sources for which a statistically significant (greater than 20) intensity was found in the 3-10-keV band (138 sources), further intensity determinations were made in the 1-15-keV, 1-6-keV, and 15-40-keV energy bands. Graphs and other simple techniques are provided to aid the user in converting the observed counting rates to convenient units and in determining spectral parameters. Long-term light curves (counting rates in one or more energy bands as a function of time) are plotted for 86 of the brighter sources.

  4. MIT/OSO 7 catalog of x-ray sources: intensities, spectra, and long-term variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markert, T.H.; Winkler, P.F.; Laird, F.N.; Clark, G.W.; Hearn, D.R.; Sprott, G.F.; Li, F.K.; Bradt, H.V.; Lewin, W.H.G.; Schnopper, H.W.

    1979-01-01

    This paper is a summary of the observations of the cosmic X-ray sky performed by the MIT 1--40 KeV X-ray detectors on the OSO 7 between 1971 October and 1973 May. Specifically, we have computed the mean intensities or upper limits of all third Uhuru or OSO 7 cataloged sources (185 sources) in the 3--10 KeV range. For those sources for which a statistically significant (>20) intensity was found in the 3--10 KeV band (138 sources), further intensity determinations were made in the 1--15 KeV, 1--6 KeV, and 15--40 KeV energy bands. We have provided graphs and other simple techniques to aid the user in converting the observed counting rates to convenient units and in determining spectral parameters. Finally, we have plotted long-term light curves (counting rates in one or more energy bands as a function of time) for 86 of the brighter sources

  5. LONG-TERM X-RAY STABILITY AND ULTRAVIOLET VARIABILITY OF THE IONIZED ABSORPTION IN NGC 3783

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, A. E.; Brandt, W. N. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 525 Davey Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Behar, E.; Kaspi, S. [Department of Physics, Technion, Haifa 32000 (Israel); Crenshaw, D. M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, 25 Park Place, Suite 605, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States); Gabel, J. R. [Physics Department, Creighton University, Omaha, NE 68178 (United States); Gibson, R. R. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Kraemer, S. B. [Institute for Astrophysics and Computational Sciences, Department of Physics, The Catholic University of America, Washington, DC 20064 (United States); Turner, T. J., E-mail: amyscott@psu.edu [Department of Physics, University of Maryland Baltimore County, 1000 Hilltop Circle, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States)

    2014-12-20

    We present the results of recent Chandra High-Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer and Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph observations of the nearby Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 3783, which show a strong, nonvarying X-ray warm absorber and physically related and kinematically varying UV absorption. We compare our new observations to high-resolution, high signal-to-noise archival data from 2001, allowing a unique investigation into the long-term variations of the absorption over a 12 yr period. We find no statistically significant changes in the physical properties of the X-ray absorber, but there is a significant drop of ∼40% in the UV and X-ray flux and a significant flattening of the underlying X-ray power-law slope. Large kinematic changes are seen in the UV absorbers, possibly due to radial deceleration of the material. Similar behavior is not observed in the X-ray data, likely due to its lower-velocity resolution, which shows an outflow velocity of v {sub out} ∼ –655 km s{sup –1} in both epochs. The narrow iron Kα emission line at 6.4 keV shows no variation between epochs, and its measured width places the material producing the line at a radial distance of ∼0.03 pc from the central black hole.

  6. Long-term creep behavior of high-temperature gas turbine materials under constant and variable stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granacher, J.; Preussler, T.

    1987-01-01

    Within the framework of the documented research project, extensive creep rupture tests were carried out with characteristic, high-temperature gas turbine materials for establishment of improved design data. In the range of the main application temperatures and in stress ranges down to application-relevant values the tests extended over a period of about 40,000 hours. In addition, long-term annealing tests were carried out in the most important temperature ranges for the measurement of the density-dependent straim, which almost always manifested itself as a material contraction. Furthermore, hot tensile tests were carried out for the description of the elastoplastic short-term behavior. Several creep curves were derived from the results of the different tests with a differentiated evaluation method. On the basis of these creep curves, creep equations were set up for a series of materials which are valid in the entire examined temperature range and stress range and up to the end of the secondary creep range. Also, equations for the time-temperature-dependent description of the material contraction behavior were derived. With these equations, the high-temperature deformation behavior of the examined materials under constant creep stress can be described simply and application-oriented. (orig.) With 109 figs., 19 tabs., 77 refs [de

  7. The Role of Indian Ocean SST Anomalies in Modulating Regional Rainfall Variability and Long-term Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, C. C.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

    2008-12-01

    In a series of atmospheric general circulation model simulations, the potential impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating low- to mid-latitude precipitation around the Indian Ocean rim countries is explored. The relative importance of various characteristic tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean SST poles, both individually and in combination, to regional precipitation changes is quantified. A mechanism for the rainfall modulation is proposed, by which the SST anomalies induce changes in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, resulting in a reorganization of the large-scale atmospheric circulation across the Indian Ocean basin. Across western and southern regions of Australia, rainfall anomalies are found to be due to modulations in the meridional thickness gradient, thermal wind, and baroclinicity, leading to changes in the moisture flux onto the continent. The pattern of large-scale circulation changes over the tropical Indian Ocean and adjacent land masses is consistent with an anomalous strengthening of the Walker cell, leading to variations in precipitation of opposite sign across western and eastern regions of the basin. Links between long-term changes in Indian Ocean surface properties and regional precipitation changes in Indian Ocean rim countries are also discussed in a broader context with implications for water management and seasonal forecasting.

  8. Long-Term Persistency of Abnormal Heart Rate Variability following Long NICU Stay and Surgery at Birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélanie Morin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is associated with painful procedures during the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU stay. Full-term newborns can also experience pain, following surgery. These procedures can have long-lasting consequences. It has been shown that children born preterm show pain responses and cardiac alterations. This study aimed to explore the heart rate reactivity to pain in 107 subjects born either preterm or full-term who were between 7 and 25 years old at testing. We also evaluated the effect of pain experienced at birth, as represented by a longer NICU stay, time under ventilation, and surgery at birth. Participants were asked to immerse their right forearm in 10°C water for 2 minutes. Electrocardiograms were recorded at baseline and during the immersion procedure. Full-term subjects showed a stable increase in heart rate throughout the procedure, whereas preterm ones showed a strong increase at the beginning, which decreased over time. Also, preterm and full-term subjects who experienced pain at birth showed higher resting heart rate, stronger sympathetic activity, and lower cardiac vagal activity. Our study demonstrated a long-term impact of a long NICU stay and surgery at birth on cardiac autonomic activity. This could lead to impaired reactions to pain or stress in later life.

  9. Changes in heart rate variability are associated with expression of short-term and long-term contextual and cued fear memories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Liu

    Full Text Available Heart physiology is a highly useful indicator for measuring not only physical states, but also emotional changes in animals. Yet changes of heart rate variability during fear conditioning have not been systematically studied in mice. Here, we investigated changes in heart rate and heart rate variability in both short-term and long-term contextual and cued fear conditioning. We found that while fear conditioning could increase heart rate, the most significant change was the reduction in heart rate variability which could be further divided into two distinct stages: a highly rhythmic phase (stage-I and a more variable phase (stage-II. We showed that the time duration of the stage-I rhythmic phase were sensitive enough to reflect the transition from short-term to long-term fear memories. Moreover, it could also detect fear extinction effect during the repeated tone recall. These results suggest that heart rate variability is a valuable physiological indicator for sensitively measuring the consolidation and expression of fear memories in mice.

  10. Long-term dynamics of investment decisions in electricity markets with variable renewables development and adequacy objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petitet, Marie

    2016-01-01

    In liberalised electricity systems, power markets are expected to ensure the long-term coordination of investments in order to guarantee security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness. In the reference energy-only market, it relies on the ability of power markets - where the hourly price is aligned with the marginal cost of the system - to provide an adequate price-signal for investors. However, in practice, questions have been raised about its ability to trigger investments in Low-Carbon Technologies (LCT) including in particular Renewable Energy Sources of Electricity (RES-E), and its ability to ensure capacity adequacy. After a characterisation of these market failures, this dissertation tackles the two research topics within a methodological framework based on a System Dynamics model developed to simulate private investment decisions in power markets. First, the results show that substituting out-of-market support mechanisms for RES-E by market-based investments helped by the sole implementation of a carbon price appears as a feasible solution to trigger RES-E development providing that there is a political commitment on a high carbon price. Second, it also appears that the energy-only market with price cap is ineffective to ensure capacity adequacy in a context of mature markets with conventional thermal power plants under transition paths which involve a stable electricity demand thank to energy efficiency efforts and the exogenous development of RES-E thanks to support mechanisms in the absence of a high and fixed carbon price. Adding a capacity market or removing the price cap both bring benefits in terms of Loss Of Load Expectation (LOLE) and social welfare. Moreover, considering two various energy transition scenarios and different assumptions about the risk aversion of private investors, the capacity market is identified as the best option for regulators among the considered market designs. (author) [fr

  11. Long-Term Collection

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    Dear Colleagues, As previously announced in Echo (No. 254), your delegates took action to draw attention to the projects of the Long-Term Collections (LTC), the humanitarian body of the CERN Staff Association. On Tuesday, 11 October, at noon, small Z-Cards were widely distributed at the entrances of CERN restaurants and we thank you all for your interest. We hope to have achieved an important part of our goal, which was to inform you, convince you and find new supporters among you. We will find out in the next few days! An exhibition of the LTC was also set up in the Main Building for the entire week. The Staff Association wants to celebrate the occasion of the Long-Term Collection’s 45th anniversary at CERN because, ever since 1971, CERN personnel have showed great support in helping the least fortunate people on the planet in a variety of ways according to their needs. On a regular basis, joint fundraising appeals are made with the Directorate to help the victims of natural disasters around th...

  12. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

  13. Nitrogen deposition outweighs climatic variability in driving annual growth rate of canopy beech trees: Evidence from long-term growth reconstruction across a geographic gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentilesca, Tiziana; Rita, Angelo; Brunetti, Michele; Giammarchi, Francesco; Leonardi, Stefano; Magnani, Federico; van Noije, Twan; Tonon, Giustino; Borghetti, Marco

    2018-07-01

    In this study, we investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long-term tree growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. We sampled dominant trees at different developmental stages (from young to mature tree cohorts, with tree ages spanning from 35 to 160 years) and used stem analysis to infer historic reconstruction of tree volume and dominant height. Annual growth volume (G V ) and height (G H ) variability were related to annual variability in model simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition and site-specific climatic variables, (i.e. mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, mean growing period temperature, total growing period precipitation, and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index) and atmospheric CO 2 concentration, including tree cambial age among growth predictors. Generalized additive models (GAM), linear mixed-effects models (LMM), and Bayesian regression models (BRM) were independently employed to assess explanatory variables. The main results from our study were as follows: (i) tree age was the main explanatory variable for long-term growth variability; (ii) GAM, LMM, and BRM results consistently indicated climatic variables and CO 2 effects on G V and G H were weak, therefore evidence of recent climatic variability influence on beech annual growth rates was limited in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula; (iii) instead, significant positive nitrogen deposition (N dep ) effects were repeatedly observed in G V and G H ; the positive effects of N dep on canopy height growth rates, which tended to level off at N dep values greater than approximately 1.0 g m -2  y -1 , were interpreted as positive impacts on forest stand above-ground net productivity at the selected study sites. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Effect of short- and long-term heat stress on the conception risk of dairy cows under natural service and artificial insemination breeding programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüller, L-K; Burfeind, O; Heuwieser, W

    2016-04-01

    The objectives of this retrospective study were to examine the effect of heat stress on natural service and artificial insemination (AI) breeding methods. We investigated the influence of short- and long-term heat stress on the conception risk (CR) of dairy cows bred by natural service or by AI with frozen-thawed or fresh semen. In addition, the relationship between breeding method and parity was determined. Cows bred by AI with frozen-thawed semen exposed to long-term heat stress (mean temperature-humidity index ≥73 in the period 21d before breeding) were 63% less likely to get pregnant compared with cows not exposed to heat stress. Cows bred by AI with fresh semen were 80% less likely to get pregnant during periods of short-term heat stress than during periods without heat stress. Furthermore, multiparous cows bred by AI with frozen-thawed or fresh semen were 22 and 67% less likely to get pregnant, respectively, than primiparous cows. No influence of heat stress or parity was noted on the CR of cows bred by natural service. The present study indicates that the likelihood of dairy cows becoming pregnant is reduced by short- and long-term heat stress depending on the type of semen employed. In particular, CR of cows inseminated with fresh semen is negatively affected by short-term heat stress and CR of cows inseminated with frozen-thawed semen is negatively affected by long-term heat stress. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

    2011-01-01

    The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can

  16. Long-term impacts of variable retention harvesting on ground-layer plant communities in Pinus resinosa forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margaret W. Roberts; Anthony W. D' Amato; Christel C. Kern; Brian J. Palik; Lorenzo Marini

    2016-01-01

    Concerns about loss of biodiversity and structural complexity in managed forests have recently increased and led to the development of new management strategies focused on restoring or maintaining ecosystem functions while also providing wood outputs. Variable retention harvest (VRH) systems, in which mature overstorey trees are retained in various spatial arrangements...

  17. ASSOCIATING LONG-TERM {gamma}-RAY VARIABILITY WITH THE SUPERORBITAL PERIOD OF LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackermann, M.; Buehler, R. [Deutsches Elektronen Synchrotron DESY, D-15738 Zeuthen (Germany); Ajello, M. [Space Sciences Laboratory, 7 Gauss Way, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States); Ballet, J.; Casandjian, J. M. [Laboratoire AIM, CEA-IRFU/CNRS/Universite Paris Diderot, Service d' Astrophysique, CEA Saclay, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette (France); Barbiellini, G. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Trieste, I-34127 Trieste (Italy); Bastieri, D.; Buson, S. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Padova, I-35131 Padova (Italy); Bellazzini, R.; Bregeon, J. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Pisa, I-56127 Pisa (Italy); Bonamente, E.; Cecchi, C. [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Perugia, I-06123 Perugia (Italy); Brandt, T. J. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Brigida, M. [Dipartimento di Fisica ' ' M. Merlin' ' dell' Universita e del Politecnico di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Bruel, P. [Laboratoire Leprince-Ringuet, Ecole polytechnique, CNRS/IN2P3, F-91128 Palaiseau (France); Caliandro, G. A. [Institute of Space Sciences (IEEE-CSIC), Campus UAB, E-08193 Barcelona (Spain); Cameron, R. A. [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Department of Physics and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Caraveo, P. A. [INAF-Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica Cosmica, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Cavazzuti, E. [Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) Science Data Center, I-00044 Frascati (Roma) (Italy); Chekhtman, A., E-mail: andrea.caliandro@ieec.uab.es, E-mail: hadasch@ieec.uab.es, E-mail: dtorres@ieec.uab.es [Center for Earth Observing and Space Research, College of Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030 (United States); and others

    2013-08-20

    Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the {gamma}-ray binary LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the {approx}26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the {gamma}-ray emission of LS I +61 Degree-Sign 303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation is more prominently seen at orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. These findings open the possibility to use {gamma}-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems.

  18. ASSOCIATING LONG-TERM γ-RAY VARIABILITY WITH THE SUPERORBITAL PERIOD OF LS I +61°303

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackermann, M.; Buehler, R.; Ajello, M.; Ballet, J.; Casandjian, J. M.; Barbiellini, G.; Bastieri, D.; Buson, S.; Bellazzini, R.; Bregeon, J.; Bonamente, E.; Cecchi, C.; Brandt, T. J.; Brigida, M.; Bruel, P.; Caliandro, G. A.; Cameron, R. A.; Caraveo, P. A.; Cavazzuti, E.; Chekhtman, A.

    2013-01-01

    Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the γ-ray binary LS I +61°303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the ∼26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the γ-ray emission of LS I +61°303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation is more prominently seen at orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. These findings open the possibility to use γ-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems

  19. Comparison of two systems for long-term heart rate variability monitoring in free-living conditions - a pilot study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansen, Jesper; Korshoj, Mette; Skotte, Jorgen H

    2011-01-01

    Actiheart and Holter recorders, and signals were processed to RR-interval time series. Segments of 5-minute duration were sampled every 30 minutes, and spectral components of the heart rate variability were calculated. Actiheart and Holter values were compared using Deming regression analysis and Bland...

  20. Ecosystem variability along the estuarine salinity gradient: Examples from long-term study of San Francisco Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, James E.; Jassby, Alan D.; Schraga, Tara; Kress, Erica S.; Martin, Charles A.

    2017-01-01

    The salinity gradient of estuaries plays a unique and fundamental role in structuring spatial patterns of physical properties, biota, and biogeochemical processes. We use variability along the salinity gradient of San Francisco Bay to illustrate some lessons about the diversity of spatial structures in estuaries and their variability over time. Spatial patterns of dissolved constituents (e.g., silicate) can be linear or nonlinear, depending on the relative importance of river-ocean mixing and internal sinks (diatom uptake). Particles have different spatial patterns because they accumulate in estuarine turbidity maxima formed by the combination of sinking and estuarine circulation. Some constituents have weak or no mean spatial structure along the salinity gradient, reflecting spatially distributed sources along the estuary (nitrate) or atmospheric exchanges that buffer spatial variability of ecosystem metabolism (dissolved oxygen). The density difference between freshwater and seawater establishes stratification in estuaries stronger than the thermal stratification of lakes and oceans. Stratification is strongest around the center of the salinity gradient and when river discharge is high. Spatial distributions of motile organisms are shaped by species-specific adaptations to different salinity ranges (shrimp) and by behavioral responses to environmental variability (northern anchovy). Estuarine spatial patterns change over time scales of events (intrusions of upwelled ocean water), seasons (river inflow), years (annual weather anomalies), and between eras separated by ecosystem disturbances (a species introduction). Each of these lessons is a piece in the puzzle of how estuarine ecosystems are structured and how they differ from the river and ocean ecosystems they bridge.

  1. Comparison of long-term stability of containment systems for residues and wastes contaminated with naturally occurring radionuclides at an arid site and two humid sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winters, M.; Merry-Libby, P.; Hinchman, R.

    1985-01-01

    The long-term stability of near-surface containment systems designed for the management of radioactive wastes and residues contaminated with naturally occurring radionuclides are compared at the three different sites. The containment designs are: (1) a diked 8.9-m high mound, including a 3.2-m layered cap at a site (humid) near Lewiston, New York, (2) a 6.8-m-high mound, including a similar 3.2-m cap at a site (humid) near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and (3) 4.8-m deep trenches with 3.0-m backfilled caps at a site (arid) near Hanford, Washington. Geological, hydrological, and biological factors affecting the long-term (1000-year) integrity of the containment systems at each site are examined, including: erosion, flooding, drought, wildfire, slope and cover failure, plant root penetration, burrowing animals, other soil-forming processes, and land-use changes. For the containment designs evaluated, releases of radon-222 at the arid site are predicted to be several orders of magnitude higher than at the two humid sites - upon initial burial and at 1000 years (after severe erosion). Transfer of wastes containing naturally occurring radionuclides from a humid to an arid environment offers little or no advantage relative to long-term stability of the containment system and has a definite disadvantage in terms of gaseous radioactive releases. 26 references, 3 figures, 4 tables

  2. Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

    2017-12-31

    Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and

  3. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: The density HRV parameter Dyx is a new heart rate variability (HRV) measure based on multipole analysis of the Poincaré plot obtained from RR interval time series, deriving information from both the time and frequency domain. Preliminary results have suggested that the parameter may provide...... new predictive information on mortality in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). This study compares the prognostic significance of Dyx to that of traditional linear and nonlinear measures of HRV. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Nordic ICD pilot study, patients with an acute MI were screened...... with 2D echocardiography and 24-hour Holter recordings. The study was designed to assess the power of several HRV measures to predict mortality. Dyx was tested in a subset of 206 consecutive Danish patients with analysable Holter recordings. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years 70 patients had died...

  4. Visualization of heart rate variability of long-term heart transplant patient by transition networks: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna eWdowczyk

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a heart transplant patient at his 17th year of uncomplicated follow-up. Within a frame of routine check out several tests were performed. With such a long and uneventful follow-up some degree of graft reinnervation could be anticipated. However, the patient's electrocardiogram and exercise parameters seemed largely inconclusive in this regard. The exercise heart rate dynamics were suggestive of only mild, if any parasympathetic reinnervation of the graft with persisting sympathetic activation. On the other hand, traditional heart rate variability (HRV indices were inadequately high, due to erratic rhythm resulting from interference of the persisting recipient sinus node or nonconducted atrial parasystole. New tools, originated from network representation of time series, by visualization short-term dynamical patterns, provided a method to discern HRV increase due to reinnervation from other reasons.

  5. Diverse Long-term Variability of Five Candidate High-mass X-Ray Binaries from Swift Burst Alert Telescope Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corbet, Robin H. D. [University of Maryland, Baltimore County, MD 21250 (United States); Coley, Joel B. [NASA Postdoctoral Program, and Astroparticle Physics Laboratory, Code 661 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Road, MD 20771 (United States); Krimm, Hans A., E-mail: corbet@umbc.edu [Universities Space Research Association, 10211 Wincopin Circle, Suite 500, Columbia, MD 21044 (United States)

    2017-09-10

    We present an investigation of long-term modulation in the X-ray light curves of five little-studied candidate high-mass X-ray binaries using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. IGR J14488-5942 and AX J1700.2-4220 show strong modulation at periods of 49.6 and 44 days, respectively, which are interpreted as orbital periods of Be star systems. For IGR J14488-5942, observations with the Swift X-ray Telescope show a hint of pulsations at 33.4 s. For AX J1700.2-4220, 54 s pulsations were previously found with XMM-Newton . Swift J1816.7-1613 exhibits complicated behavior. The strongest peak in the power spectrum is at a period near 150 days, but this conflicts with a determination of a period of 118.5 days by La Parola et al. AX J1820.5-1434 has been proposed to exhibit modulation near 54 days, but the extended BAT observations suggest modulation at slightly longer than double this at approximately 111 days. There appears to be a long-term change in the shape of the modulation near 111 days, which may explain the apparent discrepancy. The X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+090, which was previously proposed to be a Be star system with an orbital period of ∼30 days from pulse timing, shows peaks in the power spectrum at 81 and 173 days. The origins of these periods are unclear, although they might be the orbital period and a superorbital period respectively. For all five sources, the long-term variability, together with the combination of orbital and proposed pulse periods, suggests that the sources contain Be star mass donors.

  6. 77 FR 55197 - LNG Development Company, LLC; Application for Long-Term Authorization To Export Liquefied Natural...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-07

    ... particularly shale, gas-bearing formations in the United States and Canada. Oregon LNG states that improvements in drilling and extraction technologies have coincided with rapid diffusion in the natural gas...-Term Authorization To Export Liquefied Natural Gas Produced From Canadian and Domestic Natural Gas...

  7. Avian malaria in a boreal resident species: long-term temporal variability, and increased prevalence in birds with avian keratin disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Laura C.; Handel, Colleen M.; Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Loiseau, Claire; Sehgal, Ravinder N. M.

    2016-01-01

    The prevalence of vector-borne parasitic diseases is widely influenced by biological and ecological factors. Environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation can have a marked effect on haemosporidian parasites (Plasmodium spp.) that cause malaria and those that cause other malaria-like diseases in birds. However, there have been few long-term studies monitoring haemosporidian infections in birds in northern latitudes, where weather conditions can be highly variable and the effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced. We used molecular methods to screen more than 2,000 blood samples collected from black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus), a resident passerine bird. Samples were collected over a 10 year period, mostly during the non-breeding season, at seven sites in Alaska, USA. We tested for associations between Plasmodium prevalence and local environmental conditions including temperature, precipitation, site, year and season. We also evaluated the relationship between parasite prevalence and individual host factors of age, sex and presence or absence of avian keratin disorder. This disease, which causes accelerated keratin growth in the beak, provided a natural study system in which to test the interaction between disease state and malaria prevalence. Prevalence of Plasmodium infection varied by year, site, age and individual disease status but there was no support for an effect of sex or seasonal period. Significantly, birds with avian keratin disorder were 2.6 times more likely to be infected by Plasmodium than birds without the disorder. Interannual variation in the prevalence of Plasmodium infection at different sites was positively correlated with summer temperatures at the local but not statewide scale. Sequence analysis of the parasite cytochrome b gene revealed a single Plasmodiumspp. lineage, P43. Our results demonstrate associations between prevalence of avian malaria and a variety of biological and

  8. Long-Term Temporal Variability of the Freshwater Discharge and Water Levels at Patos Lagoon, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Barros

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the importance of freshwater discharge as a physical forcing in Patos Lagoon at timescales longer than one year, as well as identify the temporal variability of the dominant processes in freshwater discharge and water levels along the Patos Lagoon. Due to its proximity to the mouth, the water level at the estuary is influenced by the remote effects associated with the adjacent ocean circulation and wave climatology, reducing the observed correlation. At the lagoonar region a high correlation is expected because interannual data is being used, reducing the influence of the wind. Cross wavelet technique is applied to examine the coherence and phase between interannual time-series (South Oscillation Index, freshwater discharge and water levels. The freshwater discharge of the main tributaries and water levels in Patos Lagoon are influenced by ENSO on interannual scales (cycles between 3.8 and 6 years. Therefore, El Niño events are associated with high mean values of freshwater discharge and water levels above the mean. On the other hand, La Niña events are associated with low mean values of freshwater discharge and water levels below the mean.

  9. Sustained fitness gains and variability in fitness trajectories in the long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenski, Richard E.; Wiser, Michael J.; Ribeck, Noah; Blount, Zachary D.; Nahum, Joshua R.; Morris, J. Jeffrey; Zaman, Luis; Turner, Caroline B.; Wade, Brian D.; Maddamsetti, Rohan; Burmeister, Alita R.; Baird, Elizabeth J.; Bundy, Jay; Grant, Nkrumah A.; Card, Kyle J.; Rowles, Maia; Weatherspoon, Kiyana; Papoulis, Spiridon E.; Sullivan, Rachel; Clark, Colleen; Mulka, Joseph S.; Hajela, Neerja

    2015-01-01

    Many populations live in environments subject to frequent biotic and abiotic changes. Nonetheless, it is interesting to ask whether an evolving population's mean fitness can increase indefinitely, and potentially without any limit, even in a constant environment. A recent study showed that fitness trajectories of Escherichia coli populations over 50 000 generations were better described by a power-law model than by a hyperbolic model. According to the power-law model, the rate of fitness gain declines over time but fitness has no upper limit, whereas the hyperbolic model implies a hard limit. Here, we examine whether the previously estimated power-law model predicts the fitness trajectory for an additional 10 000 generations. To that end, we conducted more than 1100 new competitive fitness assays. Consistent with the previous study, the power-law model fits the new data better than the hyperbolic model. We also analysed the variability in fitness among populations, finding subtle, but significant, heterogeneity in mean fitness. Some, but not all, of this variation reflects differences in mutation rate that evolved over time. Taken together, our results imply that both adaptation and divergence can continue indefinitely—or at least for a long time—even in a constant environment. PMID:26674951

  10. Long-term temperature trends and variability on Spitsbergen: the extended Svalbard Airport temperature series, 1898–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øyvind Nordli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the few long instrumental records available for the Arctic is the Svalbard Airport composite series that hitherto began in 1911, with observations made on Spitsbergen, the largest island in the Svalbard Archipelago. This record has now been extended to 1898 with the inclusion of observations made by hunting and scientific expeditions. Temperature has been observed almost continuously in Svalbard since 1898, although at different sites. It has therefore been possible to create one composite series for Svalbard Airport covering the period 1898–2012, and this valuable new record is presented here. The series reveals large temperature variability on Spitsbergen, with the early 20th century warming as one striking feature: an abrupt change from the cold 1910s to the local maxima of the 1930s and 1950s. With the inclusion of the new data it is possible to show that the 1910s were colder than the years at the start of the series. From the 1960s, temperatures have increased, so the present temperature level is significantly higher than at any earlier period in the instrumental history. For the entire period, and for all seasons, there are positive, statistically significant trends. Regarding the annual mean, the total trend is 2.6°C/century, whereas the largest trend is in spring, at 3.9°C/century. In Europe, it is the Svalbard Archipelago that has experienced the greatest temperature increase during the latest three decades. The composite series may be downloaded from the home page of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and should be used with reference to the present article.

  11. Three-Dimensional modelling of the long-term variability of tracer transport in the Asian Summer Monsoon anticyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taverna, Giorgio; Chipperfield, Martyn; Feng, Wuhu; Pope, Richard; Hossaini, Ryan; Forster, Piers

    2017-04-01

    The Asian Monsoon is an important region for the transport of gases from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Recent work by many groups has focused on quantifying processes which contribute to coupling in the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS), including transport during the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). Troposphere-to-stratosphere transport in this region has been the focus of a number of recent campaigns, including the EU "StratoClim campaign" in Kalamata, Greece, 2016. Anthropogenic compounds such as CO Very Short-Lived Substances (VSLS), which destroy stratospheric ozone, and sulphur compounds, which maintain the stratospheric aerosol layer, are among the important species involved in large convective systems transport such as the ASM. An important question for halogenated VSLS is whether ASM-associated transport can take place on timescales which are short relative to their chemical lifetimes of days to months. This talk will present results of the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT off-line 3-D chemical transport model to investigate these issues using moderate-resolution simulations (2.8°x2.8°, 60 levels from surface to 60 km). The model is forced by ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. A 1979-2016 simulation was run using artificial and idealized tracers with parametrized loss rates, lifetimes and emissions. These types of tracer have already been successfully used to study the transport of VSLS from surface through the TTL. The interannual variability of the transport inside and through the ASM anticyclone and related confinement will be shown and quantified. Comparisons will be made with in-situ and remote satellite data, where possible.

  12. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  13. A Combined Syntactical and Statistical Approach for R Peak Detection in Real-Time Long-Term Heart Rate Variability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Pang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-term heart rate variability (HRV analysis is useful as a noninvasive technique for autonomic nervous system activity assessment. It provides a method for assessing many physiological and pathological factors that modulate the normal heartbeat. The performance of HRV analysis systems heavily depends on a reliable and accurate detection of the R peak of the QRS complex. Ectopic beats caused by misdetection or arrhythmic events can introduce bias into HRV results, resulting in significant problems in their interpretation. This study presents a novel method for long-term detection of normal R peaks (which represent the normal heartbeat in electrocardiographic signals, intended specifically for HRV analysis. The very low computational complexity of the proposed method, which combines and exploits the advantages of syntactical and statistical approaches, enables real-time applications. The approach was validated using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology–Beth Israel Hospital Normal Sinus Rhythm and the Fantasia database, and has a sensitivity, positive predictivity, detection error rate, and accuracy of 99.998, 99.999, 0.003, and 99.996%, respectively.

  14. [Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plancke, L; Amariei, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

  15. The clinical immunological and long-term follow-up of pediatric patients with common variable immunodeficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdollahzade S

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available "n 800x600 Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} Background: Common Variable Immunodeficiency (CVID is a primary immunodeficiency disease, characterized by hypogammaglobulinemia and heterogeneous clinical manifestations. This study was performed to evaluate the clinical and immunological features of pediatric patients with CVID. "n"nMethods: We reviewed the records of 69 children diagnosed under age of 16 years with CVID (35 males and 34 females."n"nResults: By the year 2008, 15 patients (21% had died. The total follow-up period was 333 patient-years. The mean diagnostic time between onset and diagnosis in our patient group was 4.40 years. The overall rate of consanguineous marriages was 58%. 10 patients had a positive family history of immunodeficiency. At the time of diagnosis, the mean levels of serum immunoglobulin G (IgG, IgM, and IgA levels were 286.86, 39.92, and 18.39 mg/dl, respectively which were below the normal levels for age. All of the patients presented with infectious diseases at the time of onset, the most common of which were pneumonia, diarrhea and sinusitis. Acute and recurrent infections were also found in almost all of the patients, particularly involving respiratory and gastrointestinal systems. The most common infections during follow-up period were pneumonia (31.9%, acute diarrhea (18.8%, acute sinusitis (18.8%, and otitis media (14.5%. Post-diagnosis survival was estimated to be 79% during the first five years. The survival rate was not shown to be influenced by delayed diagnosis, serum levels of IgG and B

  16. Geological constraints on continental arc activity since 720 Ma: implications for the link between long-term climate variability and episodicity of continental arcs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, W.; Lee, C. T.

    2016-12-01

    Continental arc volcanoes have been suggested to release more CO2 than island arc volcanoes due to decarbonation of wallrock carbonates in the continental upper plate through which the magmas traverse (Lee et al., 2013). Continental arcs may thus play an important role in long-term climate. To test this hypothesis, we compiled geological maps to reconstruct the surface distribution of granitoid plutons and the lengths of ancient continental arcs. These results were then compiled into a GIS framework and incorporated into GPlates plate reconstructions. Our results show an episodic nature of global continental arc activity since 720 Ma. The lengths of continental arcs were at minimums during most of the Cryogenian ( 720-670 Ma), the middle Paleozoic ( 460-300 Ma) and the Cenozoic ( 50-0 Ma). Arc lengths were highest during the Ediacaran ( 640-570 Ma), the early Paleozoic ( 550-430 Ma) and the entire Mesozoic with peaks in the Early Triassic ( 250-240 Ma), Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous ( 160-130 Ma), and Late Cretaceous ( 90-65 Ma). The extensive continental arcs in the Ediacaran and early Paleozoic reflect the Pan-African events and circum-Gondwana subduction during the assembly of the Gondwana supercontinent. The Early Triassic peak is coincident with the final closure of the paleo-Asian oceans and the onset of circum-Pacific subduction associated with the assembly of the Pangea supercontinent. The Jurassic-Cretaceous peaks reflect the extensive continental arcs established in the western Pacific, North and South American Cordillera, coincident with the initial dispersal of the Pangea. Continental arcs are favored during the final assembly and the early-stage dispersal of a supercontinent. Our compilation shows a temporal match between continental arc activity and long-term climate at least since 720 Ma. For example, continental arc activity was reduced during the Cryogenian icehouse event, and enhanced during the Early Paleozoic and Jurassic-Cretaceous greenhouse

  17. 76 FR 34212 - Lake Charles Exports, LLC; Application for Long-Term Authorization To Export Liquefied Natural Gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-13

    ... resource potential and production costs of natural gas for 2011 through 2035.\\7\\ LCE's conclusion is that..., Jordan, Nicaragua, Mexico, Morocco, Oman, Peru, and Singapore. DATES: Protests, motions to intervene or... improvements in natural gas exploration and production technology [[Page 34214

  18. 78 FR 34084 - Freeport-McMoRan Energy LLC; Application for Long-Term Authorization To Export Liquefied Natural...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-06

    ... Release). Addressing domestic natural gas demand, FME states that U.S. natural gas available for supply...) with which trade is not prohibited by U.S. law or policy. FME requests that this authorization commence... (non-FTA countries) with which trade is not prohibited by U.S. law or policy. FME seeks authorization...

  19. The distinct nature of hematopoietic stem cell subpopulations studied in long-term stroma-associated culture in the mouse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.P. van der Sluijs

    1993-01-01

    textabstractIn this thesis a number of experiments is described which give evidence for the notion of a distinct nature of CFU-S and cells with LTRA in the mouse. The distinct nature is illustrated by the difference in growth characteristics of CFU-S and LTRA cells on preestablished bone

  20. The role of natural glasses as analogues in projecting the long-term alteration of high-level nuclear waste glasses: Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazer, J.J.

    1993-01-01

    The common observation of glasses persisting in natural environments for long periods of time (up to tens of millions of years) provides compelling evidence that these materials can be kinetically stable in a variety of subsurface environments. This paper reviews how natural and historical synthesized glasses can be employed as natural analogues for understanding and projecting the long-term alteration of high-level nuclear waste glasses. The corrosion of basaltic glass results in many of the same alteration features found in laboratory testing of the corrosion of high-level radioactive waste glasses. Evidence has also been found indicating similarities in the rate controlling processes, such as the effects of silica concentration on corrosion in groundwater and in laboratory leachates. Naturally altered rhyolitic glasses and tektites provide additional evidence that can be used to constrain estimates of long-term waste glass alteration. When reacted under conditions where water is plentiful, the corrosion for these glasses is dominated by network hydrolysis, while the corrosion is dominated by molecular water diffusion and secondary mineral formation under conditions where water contact is intermittent or where water is relatively scarce. Synthesized glasses that have been naturally altered result in alkali-depleted alteration features that are similar to those found for natural glasses and for nuclear waste glasses. The characteristics of these alteration features appear to be dependent on the alteration conditions which affect the dominant reaction processes during weathering. In all cases, care must be taken to ensure that the information being provided by natural analogues is related to nuclear waste glass corrosion in a clear and meaningful way

  1. Long-term collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  2. Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goshe, Lisa R.; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J.; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M.; Bailey, Rhonda

    2017-01-01

    Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp’s ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the “rapprochement” skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp’s ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends. PMID:28333937

  3. Marital stability, satisfaction and well-being in old age: variability and continuity in long-term continuously married older persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margelisch, Katja; Schneewind, Klaus A; Violette, Jeanine; Perrig-Chiello, Pasqualina

    2017-04-01

    Recent research shows that the well-documented positive effects of marital stability on well-being and health outcomes are conditional upon the quality of marriage. To date, few studies have explored the relationship between marital satisfaction, well-being and health among very long-term married individuals. This study aims at identifying groups of long-term married persons with respect to marital satisfaction and comparing them longitudinally concerning their well-being outcomes, marital stressors, personality and socio-demographic variables. Data are derived from a survey (data collection 2012 and 2014) with 374 continuously married individuals at wave 1 (mean age: 74.2 years, length of marriage: 49.2 years) and 252 at wave 2. Cluster analyses were performed comparing the clusters with regard to various well-being outcomes. The predictive power of cluster affiliation and various predictors at wave 1 on well-being outcomes at wave 2 was tested using regression analyses. Two groups were identified, one happily the other unhappily married, with the happily married scoring higher on all well-being and health outcomes. Regression analyses revealed that group affiliation at wave 1 was not any longer predictive of health, emotional loneliness and hopelessness two years later, when taking into account socio-demographic variables, psychological resilience and marital strain, whereas it remained an important predictor of life satisfaction and social loneliness. Marital satisfaction is associated with health and well-being in older couples over time, whereas psychological resilience and marital strain are major predictors explaining the variance of these outcomes.

  4. Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Avens

    Full Text Available Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii, the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp's ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL estimated using the "rapprochement" skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp's ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends.

  5. Survival and cardiovascular events after coarctation-repair in long-term follow-up (COAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, P; Pabst von Ohain, J; Kaemmerer, H; Ewert, P; Hager, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term sequelae and events after coarctation repair are well described. However, the predictive value of variables from clinical follow-up investigation for late events and survival has rarely been investigated. All patients who participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for reevaluation of survival, current clinical status and major cardiovascular events. Of 273 eligible patients, 209 were available for follow-up. Nine patients had died at a median age of 46years (range 30-64years), five of them due to cardiovascular complications. Late mortality after surgical intervention was 5.7% with a median age of 41years (range 16-64years). Twenty-five patients had a major cardiovascular event: 12 had procedures at the aortic valve or aortic arch, 8 had procedures for restenosis, 2 had endocarditis, 2 had a cerebrovascular insult and 1 an aortic dissection. The presence of bicuspid aortic valve (p=0.009), brachial-ankle blood pressure gradient >20mmHg (p<0.001) and reduced left ventricular function (p=0.002) correlated with major cardiovascular events. Surgical correction of coarctation of the aorta shows fairly low mortality in the long-term follow-up. Late morbidities include recoarctation, but also the consequences of the hemodynamics produced by a congenital bicuspid aortic valve, presence of which is predictive for aortic valve procedures: however the predictive value of clinical variables is limited. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  6. 77 FR 64964 - Cheniere Marketing, LLC; Application for Long-Term Authorization To Export Liquefied Natural Gas...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-24

    ... states that it proposed the project in part due to the improved outlook for domestic natural gas... regional, state, and national economy through job creation and increased economic activity, (3) Promote the liberalization of contract structures in global LNG markets by lowering the cost of energy in foreign nations...

  7. Making Learning Last: Teachers' Long-Term Retention of Improved Nature of Science Conceptions and Instructional Rationales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulvey, Bridget K.; Bell, Randy L.

    2017-01-01

    Despite successful attempts to improve learners' nature of science (NOS) conceptions through explicit, reflective approaches, retention of improved conceptions is rarely addressed in research. The issue of context for NOS instruction has implications for this retention. Whether to contextualise has been the question occupying science educators'…

  8. Differentially expressed genes linked to natural variation in long-term memory formation in Cotesia parasitic wasps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vugt, van J.J.F.A.; Hoedjes, K.M.; Geest, van de H.C.; Schijlen, E.G.W.M.; Vet, L.E.M.; Smid, H.M.

    2015-01-01

    Even though learning and memory are universal traits in the Animal Kingdom, closely related species reveal substantial variation in learning rate and memory dynamics. To determine the genetic background of this natural variation, we studied two congeneric parasitic wasp species, Cotesia glomerata

  9. Differentially expressed genes linked to natural variation in long-term memory formation in Cotesia parasitic wasps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Vugt, Joke J. F. A.; Hoedjes, Katja M.; Van de Geest, Henri C.; Schijlen, Elio W. G. M.; Vet, Louise E. M.; Smid, Hans M.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Even though learning and memory are universal traits in the Animal Kingdom, closely related species reveal substantial variation in learning rate and memory dynamics. To determine the genetic background of this natural variation, we studied two congeneric parasitic wasp species, Cotesia

  10. 78 FR 75339 - Barca LNG LLC; Application for Long-Term Authorization To Export Liquefied Natural Gas Produced...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-11

    ..., the long supply chains and inflexibility of European markets have made diversification of supply a... INFORMATION: Background Barca is a Delaware limited liability company with its principal place of business in... applicants to supply transaction information ``to the extent practicable.'' Barca states that the natural gas...

  11. Effects of Formica ants on soil fauna-results from a short-term exclusion and a long-term natural experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenoir, Lisette; Bengtsson, Jan; Persson, Tryggve

    2003-02-01

    Wood ants (Formica spp.) were hypothesised to affect the composition and greatly reduce the abundance of large-sized soil fauna by predation. This was tested in two ways. Firstly, a 4-year-long experimental study was carried out in a mixed forest. Five ant-free 1.3-m(2) plots were created by fenced exclosures within an ant territory. Five nearby plots had fences with entrances for the ants. In addition, five non-fenced control plots were selected. Soil fauna (e.g. Coleoptera, Diptera larvae, Collembola and Araneae) was sampled during the summers of 1997-2000. The soil fauna was affected by the exclosures but there was no detectable effect of ants on the soil fauna. Secondly, soil fauna was studied within a large-scale natural experiment in which the long-term (30 years) effects of red wood ants could be assessed inside and outside ant territories. This long-term natural experiment revealed no significant effects of ants on the abundance or composition of soil fauna. The results from the two studies indicate that the effects of wood ants on soil fauna are fairly small. The hypothesis that wood ants are key-stone predators on soil fauna could, thus, not be supported.

  12. Long-term effects of drought on tree-ring growth and carbon isotope variability in Scots pine in a dry environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeeva, Galina; Treydte, Kerstin; Bugmann, Harald; Rigling, Andreas; Schaub, Marcus; Siegwolf, Rolf; Saurer, Matthias

    2017-08-01

    Drought frequency is increasing in many parts of the world and may enhance tree decline and mortality. The underlying physiological mechanisms are poorly understood, however, particularly regarding chronic effects of long-term drought and the response to increasing temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). We combined analyses of radial growth and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in tree rings in a mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest over the 20th century to elucidate causes of tree mortality in one of the driest parts of the European Alps (Pfynwald, Switzerland). We further compared trees that have recently died with living trees in a 10-year irrigation experiment, where annual precipitation was doubled. We found a sustained growth increase and immediate depletion of δ13C values for irrigated trees, indicating higher stomatal conductance and thus indeed demonstrating that water is a key limiting factor for growth. Growth of the now-dead trees started declining in the mid-1980s, when both mean temperature and VPD increased strongly. But growth of these trees was reduced to some extent already several decades earlier, while intrinsic water-use efficiency derived from δ13C values was higher. This indicates a more conservative water-use strategy compared with surviving trees, possibly at the cost of low carbon uptake and long-term reduction of the needle mass. We observed reduced climatic sensitivity of raw tree-ring δ13C for the now-dead in contrast to surviving trees, indicating impaired stomatal regulation, although this difference between the tree groups was smaller after detrending the data. Higher autocorrelation and a lower inter-annual δ13C variability of the now-dead trees further indicates a strong dependence on (low) carbon reserves. We conclude that the recent increase in atmospheric moisture demand in combination with insufficient soil water supply was the main trigger for mortality of those trees that were weakened by long-term

  13. Use of natural analog and modeling studies to constrain the effects of magmatic activity on long-term geologic repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valentine, G.A.; Rosenberg, N.D.; Crowe, B.M.; Perry, F.V.

    1995-01-01

    Examples of the application of natural-analog studies to the estimation of the consequences of a volcanic eruption penetrating a radioactive waste repository are given, including the criteria for analog selection and new data from ongoing studies. Examples of early modeling results focusing on the spatial and temporal scale of subsurface processes are also provided. All of these examples are taken from studies of the potential Yucca Mountain repository, Nevada, but similar approaches could be applied in other areas. In addition, studies of subsurface processes initiated by magmatic events serve as useful analogs for repository thermal loading studies

  14. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  15. Quality of life after surgical treatment of coarctation in long-term follow-up (CoAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, Pinar; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Kaemmerer, Harald; Ewert, Peter; Hager, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    We sought to analyze the quality of life and the predictive value of clinical variables from previous follow-up study in patients late after surgical treatment of aortic coarctation on the quality of life. All patients, who have participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for the health-related quality of life questionnaire SF-36 from January 2013 through December 2014. From 273 eligible patients, we received data from 135 patients, 9 of them died during the follow-up time at the median age of 46years (range 30-64years). Seventy-four patients did not participate in the study, other 64 patients moved to remote or unknown areas and could not be contacted. Quality of life was good in the fields of physical role and pain. However, patients reported a significant impairment in general health and in health transition, depending on the age. Arterial hypertension and variables from echocardiography or exercise testing from the COALA study were not predictive on functional health status. Quality of life in patients late after aortic coarctation repair is fairly good compared with healthy controls. Impairments in general health and health transition depend mainly on age, can be explained due to numerous comorbidities and reinterventions in long-term. The predictive value of the commonly assessed clinical variables on quality of life is limited. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Bentonite deposits as a natural analogue to long-term barriers in a final repository of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keto, P.

    2000-01-01

    The geology of bentonite occurrences in Almeria (Spain) and Wyoming (USA) were studied in order to find suitable natural analogue to the longterm mechanical behaviour of the bentonite barrier in the final nuclear waste disposal. The study is based on literature review over both occurrence areas and on fieldwork observations from Almeria, Spain. The deposit areas differ from each other by age, deposition environment, exchangeable cation chemistry, alteration condition, occurrence and deformational features. One of the most important deformational feature in Almeria bentonites was the existence of Tertiary (Middle and Upper Miocene, 6-15.5 Ma old) bentonite intrusion inside/over younger Quaternary (Pleistocene Superior, 0.01-0.72 Ma old) sediments. This was a result of the confining pressure of overlying volcanic rocks and sediments and the high plasticity behaviour of bentonites. According to this observation, the pressure effect in final nuclear waste repositories requires further investigations. The bentonites in Wyoming have survived weathering and shearing without losing their expandability or other properties typical of smectite-rich materials. (orig.)

  17. The long-term impacts of anthropogenic and natural processes on groundwater deterioration in a multilayered aquifer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikhy Narany, Tahoora; Sefie, Anuar; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

    2018-07-15

    In many regions around the world, there are issues associated with groundwater resources due to human and natural factors. However, the relation between these factors is difficult to determine due to the large number of parameters and complex processes required. In order to understand the relation between land use allocations, the intrinsic factors of the aquifer, climate change data and groundwater chemistry in the multilayered aquifer system in Malaysia's Northern Kelantan Basin, twenty-two years hydrogeochemical data set was used in this research. The groundwater salinisation in the intermediate aquifer, which mainly extends along the coastal line, was revealed through the hydrogeochemical investigation. Even so, there had been no significant trend detected on groundwater salinity from 1989 to 2011. In contrast to salinity, as seen from the nitrate contaminations there had been significantly increasing trends in the shallow aquifer, particularly in the central part of the study area. Additionally, a strong association between high nitrate values and the areas covered with palm oil cultivations and mixed agricultural have been detected by a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), which implies that the increasing nitrate concentrations are associated with nitrate loading from the application of N-fertilisers. From the process of groundwater salinisation in the intermediate aquifer, could be seen that it has a strong correlation the aquifer lithology, specifically marine sediments which are influenced by the ancient seawater trapped within the sediments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Sorption of diuron, atrazine, and copper ion on chars with long-term natural oxidation in soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, C.; Lin, T.; Lai, C.

    2011-12-01

    Biochar has been proposed as a measure to sequestrate carbon (C) and to increase soil fertility in sustainable agriculture. However, its sorption characteristics to herbicides, such as lowing herbicides efficacy, may constrain its agricultural application. This assertion may be arguable because most studies so far were conducted with the newly produced char and barely considered the "ageing effect" of old char since it could be oxidized over long time. In this study, historical char samples were collected and compared with the newly produced char. Batch sorption studies of diuron, atrazine, and copper ion onto chars was performed. Greater sorption of Cu was observed on the historical char samples and reached a saturated sorption at 30 mg g-1 for Cu, much higher adsorption value than newly produced char at 4 mg g-1. In contrast, sorption of diuron and atrazine on newly produced char had the highest sorption capacity than the historical char samples. The historical chars also had much higher negative charge than the newly produced char, but its surface area were lower than the new char. The results indicated that change in surface functional groups through natural oxidation rather than the change of surface area may have more pronounced influences on sorption characteristics, in which the negative charge on the historical chars' surface could hinder the adsorption of diuron and atrazine while enhance the sorption to copper ion. Biological assay to test the toxicity of diuron and copper ion for both historical and new chars on rye seed were conducted and will be presented in our poster.

  19. Bird-community responses to habitat creation in a long-term, large-scale natural experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whytock, Robin C; Fuentes-Montemayor, Elisa; Watts, Kevin; Barbosa De Andrade, Patanjaly; Whytock, Rory T; French, Paul; Macgregor, Nicholas A; Park, Kirsty J

    2018-04-01

    Ecosystem function and resilience are compromised when habitats become fragmented due to land-use change. This has led to national and international conservation strategies aimed at restoring habitat extent and improving functional connectivity (i.e., maintaining dispersal processes). However, biodiversity responses to landscape-scale habitat creation and the relative importance of spatial and temporal scales are poorly understood, and there is disagreement over which conservation strategies should be prioritized. We used 160 years of historic post-agricultural woodland creation as a natural experiment to evaluate biodiversity responses to habitat creation in a landscape context. Birds were surveyed in 101 secondary, broadleaf woodlands aged 10-160 years with ≥80% canopy cover and in landscapes with 0-17% broadleaf woodland cover within 3000 m. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to examine the direct and indirect relationships between bird abundance and diversity, ecological continuity, patch characteristics, and landscape structure and quantified the relative conservation value of local and landscape scales for bird communities. Ecological continuity indirectly affected overall bird abundance and species richness through its effects on stand structure, but had a weaker influence (effect size near 0) on the abundance and diversity of species most closely associated with woodland habitats. This was probably because woodlands were rapidly colonized by woodland generalists in ≤10 years (minimum patch age) but were on average too young (median 50 years) to be colonized by woodland specialists. Local patch characteristics were relatively more important than landscape characteristics for bird communities. Based on our results, biodiversity responses to habitat creation depended on local- and landscape-scale factors that interacted across time and space. We suggest that there is a need for further studies that focus on habitat creation in a landscape

  20. Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

    2018-02-01

    This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

  1. Long-term outlook for global natural uranium and uranium enrichment supply and demand situations after the impact of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Yuhji; Murakami, Tomoko

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the authors propose long-term projections of global nuclear power generation, uranium production, and uranium enrichment capacities by region, and estimate the trade flows of natural uranium and uranium enrichment activities in 2020 and 2035. In spite of the rapid nuclear power generation capacity growth expected especially in Asia, the natural uranium and uranium enrichment trade will not be tightened by 2020 due to the projected increase in both natural uranium production and uranium enrichment capacities, which may cause a drop in natural uranium and uranium enrichment prices. Thus, there is a great possibility that the current projects for capacity expansion will be delayed considerably. However, in the 'high-demand scenario', where nuclear expansion will be accelerated due to growing concerns about global warming and energy security issues, additional investments in uranium production and enrichment facilities will be needed by 2035. In Asia, the self-sufficiency ratio for both natural uranium supply and uranium enrichment activities will remain relatively low until 2035. However, the Herfindahl-Hirschman (HH) index of natural uranium and uranium enrichment activity trade to Asia will be lowered considerably up to 2035, indicating that nuclear capacity expansion can contribute to enhancing energy security in Asia. (author)

  2. Exploring futures from an energy perspective. A natural capital accounting model study into the long-term economic development potential of the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noorman, K.J.

    1995-01-01

    The need to quantify economic activity in physical flows has been stressed several times elsewhere. To relate economic development with 'physical reality', in this thesis Resource Accounting (or Natural Capital Accounting) has been adopted as a method. This physical perspective on sustainable development has been made operational by designing an ECCO (Enhancement of Capital Creation Options) model for the Netherlands using energy as a physical numeraire. The purpose of the model is to investigate the long-term physical aspects of contemporary and future (economic or political) strategies to move the economy towards a more sustainable state and to explore the dynamics of such a process. Chapter 2 deals with the physical nature of economic processes and the fundamental role of thermodynamics in an economic system. Chapter 3 discusses the application of the ECCO paradigm within the context of Natural Capital Accounting methodology. Furthermore, the main structure of an ECCO model is presented. Chapter 4 elaborates on the Dutch model. Historical trends in direct energy use and the methodology of I-O analysis as well as the results of I-O analysis are presented in chapter 5. A method has been developed to estimate the primary energy captured in capital stocks in the diverse ECCO sectors. This method as well as the results, derived from applying this method, are presented in chapter 6. In chapter 7 the application of ECCO as a tool for assessing long term physical consequences of different development strategies is discussed. With respect to reducing the throughput of matter and energy, this study concentrates on energy conservation to reduce the demand for primary energy and the transition to a more sustainable energy supply sector by introducing renewable energy sources. figs., tabs., appendices, refs

  3. Twelve-Month Prostate-Specific Antigen Values and Perineural Invasion as Strong Independent Prognostic Variables of Long-Term Biochemical Outcome After Prostate Seed Brachytherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ding, William, E-mail: billyding888@gmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, California Pacific Medical Center, San Francisco, California (United States); Lee, John [Department of Radiation Oncology, California Pacific Medical Center, San Francisco, California (United States); Chamberlain, David [Department of Radiation Oncology, St. Mary' s Regional Medical Center, Reno, Nevada (United States); Cunningham, James [Carson Urology, Carson City, Nevada (United States); Yang Lixi [Department of Radiation Oncology, California Pacific Medical Center, San Francisco, California (United States); Tay, Jonathan [Department of Radiation Oncology, St. Mary' s Regional Medical Center, Reno, Nevada (United States)

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: To determine whether post-treatment prostate-specific antigen (ptPSA) values at 12 months and other clinical parameters predict long-term PSA relapse-free survival (PRFS) following prostate seed brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Records of 204 hormone-naieve patients with localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate treated at St. Mary's Regional Medical Center in Reno, NV, and at Carson Tahoe Regional Medical Center in Carson City, NV, between 1998 and 2003, using I-125 or Pd-103 seed brachytherapy, were retrospectively analyzed. Treatment planning was done using a preplanned, modified peripheral loading technique. A total of 185 of 204 patients had PSA records at 12 months after implant. Variables included were age, initial pretreatment PSA, Gleason score, T stage, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group (RG), perineural invasion (PNI), external beam boost, dose, and ptPSA levels at 12 months with cutpoints at {<=}1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml. Results: Median follow-up was 80 months, and median age was 69 years. The numbers of patients stratified by NCCN low, intermediate, and high RG were 110:65:10, respectively. Monotherapy and boost prescription doses were 145 Gy and 110 Gy for I-125, and 125 Gy and 100 Gy for Pd-103 seeds, respectively. The median dose (D90) was 95.4% of the prescribed dose. The 5-year PRFS at the 12-months ptPSA levels of {<=}1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml were 98.5%, 85.7%, 61.5%, and 22.2%, respectively. The 10-year PRFS at the 12-months ptPSA levels of {<=}1 and 1.01 to 2.00 ng/ml were 90.5% and 85.7%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, both ptPSA and PNI were significant independent predictors of PRFS. Hazard ratios (HR) for ptPSA levels at {<=}1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml at 12 months were 1, 4.96, 27.57, and 65.10, respectively. PNI had an HR of 6.1 (p = 0.009). Conclusions: Presence of PNI and ptPSA values at 12 months are strong prognostic

  4. Twelve-Month Prostate-Specific Antigen Values and Perineural Invasion as Strong Independent Prognostic Variables of Long-Term Biochemical Outcome After Prostate Seed Brachytherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding, William; Lee, John; Chamberlain, David; Cunningham, James; Yang Lixi; Tay, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether post-treatment prostate-specific antigen (ptPSA) values at 12 months and other clinical parameters predict long-term PSA relapse-free survival (PRFS) following prostate seed brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Records of 204 hormone-naïve patients with localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate treated at St. Mary’s Regional Medical Center in Reno, NV, and at Carson Tahoe Regional Medical Center in Carson City, NV, between 1998 and 2003, using I-125 or Pd-103 seed brachytherapy, were retrospectively analyzed. Treatment planning was done using a preplanned, modified peripheral loading technique. A total of 185 of 204 patients had PSA records at 12 months after implant. Variables included were age, initial pretreatment PSA, Gleason score, T stage, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group (RG), perineural invasion (PNI), external beam boost, dose, and ptPSA levels at 12 months with cutpoints at ≤1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml. Results: Median follow-up was 80 months, and median age was 69 years. The numbers of patients stratified by NCCN low, intermediate, and high RG were 110:65:10, respectively. Monotherapy and boost prescription doses were 145 Gy and 110 Gy for I-125, and 125 Gy and 100 Gy for Pd-103 seeds, respectively. The median dose (D90) was 95.4% of the prescribed dose. The 5-year PRFS at the 12-months ptPSA levels of ≤1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml were 98.5%, 85.7%, 61.5%, and 22.2%, respectively. The 10-year PRFS at the 12-months ptPSA levels of ≤1 and 1.01 to 2.00 ng/ml were 90.5% and 85.7%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, both ptPSA and PNI were significant independent predictors of PRFS. Hazard ratios (HR) for ptPSA levels at ≤1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml at 12 months were 1, 4.96, 27.57, and 65.10, respectively. PNI had an HR of 6.1 (p = 0.009). Conclusions: Presence of PNI and ptPSA values at 12 months are strong prognostic variables for

  5. Effect of short-term heart rate variability biofeedback on long-term abstinence in alcohol dependent patients - a one-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penzlin, Ana Isabel; Barlinn, Kristian; Illigens, Ben Min-Woo; Weidner, Kerstin; Siepmann, Martin; Siepmann, Timo

    2017-09-06

    A randomized controlled study (RCT) recently showed that short-term heart rate variability (HRV) biofeedback in addition to standard rehabilitation care for alcohol dependence can reduce craving, anxiety and improve cardiovascular autonomic function. In this one-year follow-up study we aimed to explore whether completion of 2-week HRV-Biofeedback training is associated with long-term abstinence. Furthermore, we sought to identify potential predictors of post-treatment abstinence. We conducted a survey on abstinence in patients with alcohol dependence 1 year after completion of an RCT comparing HRV-biofeedback in addition to inpatient rehabilitation treatment alone (controls). Abstinence rates were compared and analysed for association with demographic data as well as psychometric and autonomic cardiac assessment before and after completion of the biofeedback training using bivariate and multivariate regression analyses. Out of 48 patients who participated in the RCT, 27 patients (9 females, ages 42.9 ± 8.6, mean ± SD) completed our one-year follow-up. When including in the analysis only patients who completed follow-up, the rate of abstinence tended to be higher in patients who underwent HRV-biofeedback 1 year earlier compared to those who received rehabilitative treatment alone (66.7% vs 50%, p = ns). This non-significant trend was also observed in the intention-to-treat analysis where patients who did not participate in the follow-up were assumed to have relapsed (46,7% biofeedback vs. 33.3% controls, p = ns). Neither cardiac autonomic function nor psychometric variables were associated with abstinence 1 year after HRV-biofeedback. Our follow-up study provide a first indication of possible increase in long-term abstinence after HRV-biofeedback for alcohol dependence in addition to rehabilitation. The original randomized controlled trial was registered in the German Clinical Trials Register ( DRKS00004618 ). This one-year follow-up survey has not been

  6. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Comité des collectes à long terme

    2011-01-01

    It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

  7. Long-term dynamics of radionuclides in semi-natural environments. Derivation of parameters and modelling. Final Report 1996-1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belli, M. [Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente, Rome (Italy). Dipt. Stato Ambiente, Controlli e Sistemi Informativi, Unita' Interdipartimentale di Metrologia Ambientale

    2000-07-01

    During the Chernobyl accident large areas of semi-natural ecosystems were affected by radionuclide deposition. Meadows and forests are typical semi-natural ecosystems. Meadows are used extensively in many countries as pastures for cattle, sheep and goats, while forests are important to man since they provide wood, paper, wild berries, mushrooms, game and recreational areas. Post-Chernobyl investigations have shown that dose to man from semi-natural ecosystems is relatively greater than from agricultural systems and that this dose risk persists for the long-term. Predictive models are essential to take long-term decisions on the management of contaminated environment and to identify key processes controlling the dynamics of radionuclides inside the ecosystems. During the period following the atmospheric fallout due to the nuclear weapons testing, few models for some specific semi-natural environments were developed. The applicability of these models to a wide range of semi-natural ecosystem is questionable, because in these complex systems it is more difficult to identify general key processes and to apply to other sites models developed for one site. Studies carried out since the Chernobyl accident have increased the understanding of radionuclide behaviour in semi-natural ecosystems, especially for boreal forests and middle European meadow systems which have been extensively investigated. Data sets have been obtained which describe the distribution and the cycling of radionuclides (especially {sup 137}Cs and {sup 90}Sr) within these systems. However, predictive modelling has largely been restricted to aggregated transfer factors which provide good contamination estimates, but only for the sites from which data have been obtained directly. There was a need to develop models that can be applied to a broad variety of ecosystems. They are needed for dose estimation, countermeasure implementation and environmental management. They should give reliable estimates of the

  8. Long-term dynamics of radionuclides in semi-natural environments. Derivation of parameters and modelling. Final Report 1996-1999

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belli, M.

    2000-04-01

    During the Chernobyl accident large areas of semi-natural ecosystems were affected by radionuclide deposition. Meadows and forests are typical semi-natural ecosystems. Meadows are used extensively in many countries as pastures for cattle, sheep and goats, while forests are important to man since they provide wood, paper, wild berries, mushrooms, game and recreational areas. Post-Chernobyl investigations have shown that dose to man from semi-natural ecosystems is relatively greater than from agricultural systems and that this dose risk persists for the long-term. Predictive models are essential to take long-term decisions on the management of contaminated environment and to identify key processes controlling the dynamics of radionuclides inside the ecosystems. During the period following the atmospheric fallout due to the nuclear weapons testing, few models for some specific semi-natural environments were developed. The applicability of these models to a wide range of semi-natural ecosystem is questionable, because in these complex systems it is more difficult to identify general key processes and to apply to other sites models developed for one site. Studies carried out since the Chernobyl accident have increased the understanding of radionuclide behaviour in semi-natural ecosystems, especially for boreal forests and middle European meadow systems which have been extensively investigated. Data sets have been obtained which describe the distribution and the cycling of radionuclides (especially 137 Cs and 90 Sr) within these systems. However, predictive modelling has largely been restricted to aggregated transfer factors which provide good contamination estimates, but only for the sites from which data have been obtained directly. There was a need to develop models that can be applied to a broad variety of ecosystems. They are needed for dose estimation, countermeasure implementation and environmental management. They should give reliable estimates of the behaviour

  9. Comparison of long-term geochemical interactions at two natural CO2-analogues : Montmiral (Southeast Basin, France) and Messokampos (Florina Basin, Greece) case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaus, I.; Le Guern, C.; Pauwels, H.; Pearce, J.; Shepherd, T.; Hatziyannis, G.; Metaxas, A.

    2005-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage is considered to be a viable strategy to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere. When assessing the feasibility of current or future CO 2 storage projects, mineral trapping within a reservoir is considered as a key mechanism for the permanent sequestration of CO 2 . There are many occurrences worldwide, where natural CO 2 has been trapped in geological reservoirs. These natural CO 2 analogues provide a unique opportunity to study the reactivity, due to CO 2 interactions, which occurred in the reservoirs over a geologic timeframe. Therefore, the study of analogous natural CO 2 -rich reservoirs, which act as long-term laboratories, are an important part of the assessment of the long-term geochemical effects of geological CO 2 storage. This paper referred to 2 natural CO 2 sites studied under the Natural Analogues for the Storage of CO2 in the Geological Environment (NASCENT) Project. The Montmiral reservoir in France's Southeast Basin is a high-temperature and high-pressure reservoir at great depth (100 degrees C and 36 MPa). The Messokampos reservoir in Greece's Florina Basin is a shallow, low temperature and low-pressure reservoir (25 degrees C and 0.5 MPa). Both are sandstone reservoirs, and feldspar alteration is the key interaction in both cases between dissolved CO 2 , the formation water and the reservoir rock. Both natural analogues were studied in detail petrographically and through geochemical modelling in order to characterize and explain the water-rock-gas interactions in the different geological contexts. The purpose was to assess the consequences of these interactions on CO 2 storage capacity and porosity of the host rock. It was concluded that the reservoir's temperature and pressure conditions determine the impact of CO 2 interactions, with elevated temperatures significantly increasing the reaction rates of mineral-trapping reactions. This is particularly significant when choosing

  10. A Tool for the Quantitative Anthropology of Music: Use of the nPVI Equation to Analyze Rhythmic Variability within Long-term Historical Patterns in Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph R Daniele

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of musical style across time and geography is of particular interest to historians and musicologists, yet quantitative evidence to support these trends has been lacking. This paper illustrates a novel application of the nPVI ('normalized pairwise variability index' equation to probe and quantify the rhythmic components of music over time. The nPVI equation quantifies the average difference between adjacent events in a sequence (e.g. musical notes in a melody, successive vowels in a spoken sentence. Building upon an earlier finding that German/Austrian composer nPVI values increased steadily from 1600 to 1950 (while Italian composers showed no such increase, the nPVI 'distribution' of themes from individual composers was quantitatively explored. Interestingly, the proportion of 'low nPVI' or 'Italianate' themes decreases rapidly with time while 'high nPVI' (more Germanic themes concomitantly increase in frequency. 'Middle range nPVIs' exhibit a constant incidence, arguing for a replacement of 'low nPVIs' (Italianate with 'high nPVIs' over a short time instead of a more modest, long-term progressive shift. Thus, the precise rhythmic components of complex stylistic shifts in music can be quantitatively extracted from music and support the historical record and theory.

  11. MAXI INVESTIGATION INTO THE LONG-TERM X-RAY VARIABILITY FROM THE VERY-HIGH-ENERGY γ-RAY BLAZAR Mrk 421

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isobe, Naoki [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo-ku, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Sato, Ryosuke; Ueda, Yoshihiro; Hayashida, Masaaki; Shidatsu, Megumi; Kawamuro, Taiki [Department of Astronomy, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa-Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan); Ueno, Shiro; Matsuoka, Masaru [ISS Science Project Office, Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), 2-1-1 Sengen, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8505 (Japan); Sugizaki, Mutsumi; Sugimoto, Juri; Mihara, Tatehiro [MAXI team, Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), 2-1 Hirosawa, Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Negoro, Hitoshi, E-mail: n-isobe@ir.isas.jaxa.jp [Department of Physics, Nihon University, 1-8-14 Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan)

    2015-01-01

    The archetypical very-high-energy γ-ray blazar Mrk 421 was monitored for more than three years with the Gas Slit Camera on board Monitor of All Sky X-ray Image (MAXI), and its long-term X-ray variability was investigated. The MAXI light curve in the 3-10 keV range was transformed into the periodogram in the frequency range f = 1 × 10{sup –8}-2 × 10{sup –6} Hz. The artifacts on the periodogram, resulting from data gaps in the observed light curve, were extensively simulated for variations with a power-law-like power spectrum density (PSD). By comparing the observed and simulated periodograms, the PSD index was evaluated as α = 1.60 ± 0.25. This index is smaller than that obtained in the higher-frequency range (f ≳ 1 × 10{sup –5} Hz), namely, α = 2.14 ± 0.06 in the 1998 ASCA observation of the object. The MAXI data impose a lower limit on the PSD break at f {sub b} = 5 × 10{sup –6} Hz, consistent with the break of f {sub b} = 9.5 × 10{sup –6} Hz suggested from the ASCA data. The low-frequency PSD index of Mrk 421 derived with MAXI falls well within the range of typical values among nearby Seyfert galaxies (α = 1-2). The physical implications from these results are briefly discussed.

  12. Expanding research capabilities with sea ice climate records for analysis of long-term climate change and short-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D. J.; Meier, W. N.

    2008-12-01

    Recent sea ice analysis is leading to predictions of a sea ice-free summertime in the Arctic within 20 years, or even sooner. Sea ice topics, such as concentration, extent, motion, and age, are predominately studied using satellite data. At the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), passive microwave sea ice data sets provide timely assessments of seasonal-scale variability as well as consistent long-term climate data records. Such data sets are crucial to understanding changes and assessing their impacts. Noticeable impacts of changing sea ice conditions on native cultures and wildlife in the Arctic region are now being documented. With continued deterioration in Arctic sea ice, global economic impacts will be seen as new shipping routes open. NSIDC is at the forefront of making climate data records available to address the changes in sea ice and its global impacts. By focusing on integrated data sets, NSIDC leads the way by broadening the studies of sea ice beyond the traditional cryospheric community.

  13. Does long term sport rock climbing training affect on echocardiography and heart rate variability in sedentary adults? A randomized, and controlled study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aras Dicle

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Regular physical activity can cause some long term effects on human body. The purpose of this research was to examine the effect of sport rock climbing (SRC training at 70 % HRmax level on echocardiography (ECHO and heart rate variability (HRV for one hour a day and three days a week in an eight-week period. A total of 19 adults participated in this study voluntarily. The subjects were randomly divided into two groups as experimental (EG and control (CG. While the EG went and did climbing training by using the top-rope method for 60 minutes a day, three days a week for 8 weeks and didn’t join any other physical activity programs, CG didn’t train and take part in any physical activity during the course of the study. Same measurements were repeated at the end of eight weeks. According to the findings, no significant change was observed in any of the ECHO and HRV parameters. However, an improvement was seen in some HRV parameters [average heart rate (HRave, standard deviation of all NN intervals (SDNN, standard deviation of the averages of NN intervals in all five-minute segments of the entire recording (SDANN, percent of difference between adjacent NN intervals that are greater than 50 ms (PNN50, square root of the mean of the sum of the squares of differences between adjacent NN interval (RMSSD] in EG. An exercise program based on SRC should be made more than eight weeks in order to have statistically significant changes with the purpose of observing an improvement in heart structure and functions. Keywords: Echocardiography, heart rate variability, sport rock climbing

  14. Natural transformation of chlordecone into 5b-hydrochlordecone in French West Indies soils: statistical evidence for investigating long-term persistence of organic pollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devault, Damien A; Laplanche, Christophe; Pascaline, Hélène; Bristeau, Sébastien; Mouvet, Christophe; Macarie, Hervé

    2016-01-01

    Chlordecone (CLD) was an organochlorine insecticide whose previous use resulted in an extensive pollution of the environment with severe health effects and social consequences. A closely related compound, 5b-hydrochlordecone (5b-hydroCLD), has been searched for and often detected in environmental matrices from the geographical area where CLD was applied. The current consensus considered that its presence was not the result of a biotic or abiotic dechlorination of CLD in these matrices but rather the consequence of its presence as impurity (synthesis by-product) in the CLD released into the environment. The aim of the present study was to determine if and to what extent degradation of CLD into 5b-hydroCLD occurred in the field. To test this hypothesis, the ratios of 5b-hydroCLD and CLD concentrations in a dataset of 810 soils collected between 2006 and 2012 in Martinique were compared to the ratios measured in 3 samples of the CLD dust commercial formulations applied in the banana fields of French West Indies (FWI) and 1 sample of the technical-grade CLD corresponding to the active ingredient used in such formulations. Soil data were processed with a hierarchical Bayesian model to account for random measurement errors and data censoring. Any pathway of CLD transformation into 5b-hydroCLD occurring over the long term in FWI soils would indeed change the ratio of 5b-hydroCLD/CLD compared to what it was in the initially applied formulations. Results showed a significant increase of the 5b-hydroCLD/CLD ratio in the soils-25 times greater in soil than in commercial formulations-which suggested that natural CLD transformation into 5b-hydroCLD over the long term occurred in these soils. Results from this study may impact future decisions for the remediation of the polluted areas.

  15. Long-term organic-inorganic fertilization ensures great soil productivity and bacterial diversity after natural-to-agricultural ecosystem conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xun, Weibing; Xu, Zhihui; Li, Wei; Ren, Yi; Huang, Ting; Ran, Wei; Wang, Boren; Shen, Qirong; Zhang, Ruifu

    2016-09-01

    Natural ecosystems comprise the planet's wild plant and animal resources, but large tracts of land have been converted to agroecosystems to support the demand for agricultural products. This conversion limits the number of plant species and decreases the soil biological diversity. Here we used high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing to evaluate the responses of soil bacterial communities in long-term converted and fertilized red soils (a type of Ferralic Cambisol). We observed that soil bacterial diversity was strongly affected by different types of fertilization management. Oligotrophic bacterial taxa demonstrated large relative abundances in chemically fertilized soil, whereas copiotrophic bacterial taxa were found in large relative abundances in organically fertilized and fallow management soils. Only organic-inorganic fertilization exhibited the same local taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity as that of a natural ecosystem. However, the independent use of organic or inorganic fertilizer reduced local taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and caused biotic homogenization. This study demonstrated that the homogenization of bacterial communities caused by natural-to-agricultural ecosystem conversion can be mitigated by employing rational organic-inorganic fertilization management.

  16. Epigenetic Studies Point to DNA Replication/Repair Genes as a Basis for the Heritable Nature of Long Term Complications in Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey A. Leontovich

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Metabolic memory (MM is defined as the persistence of diabetic (DM complications even after glycemic control is pharmacologically achieved. Using a zebrafish diabetic model that induces a MM state, we previously reported that, in this model, tissue dysfunction was of a heritable nature based on cell proliferation studies in limb tissue and this correlated with epigenetic DNA methylation changes that paralleled alterations in gene expression. In the current study, control, DM, and MM excised fin tissues were further analyzed by MeDIP sequencing and microarray techniques. Bioinformatics analysis of the data found that genes of the DNA replication/DNA metabolism process group (with upregulation of the apex1, mcm2, mcm4, orc3, lig1, and dnmt1 genes were altered in the DM state and these molecular changes continued into MM. Interestingly, DNA methylation changes could be found as far as 6–13 kb upstream of the transcription start site for these genes suggesting potential higher levels of epigenetic control. In conclusion, DNA methylation changes in members of the DNA replication/repair process group best explain the heritable nature of cell proliferation impairment found in the zebrafish DM/MM model. These results are consistent with human diabetic epigenetic studies and provide one explanation for the persistence of long term tissue complications as seen in diabetes.

  17. Synthetic murataite-3C, a complex form for long-term immobilization of nuclear waste. Crystal structure and its comparison with natural analogues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pakhomova, Anna S.; Krivovichev, Sergey V. [St. Petersburg State Univ. (Russian Federation). Dept. of Crystallography; Yudintsev, Sergey V. [Institute of Geology of Ore Deposits, Petrography, Mineralogy and Geochemistry, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Stefanovsky, Sergey V. [MosNPO Radon, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2013-03-01

    The structure of synthetic murataite-3C intended for long-term immobilization of high-level radioactive waste has been solved using crystals prepared by melting in an electric furnace at 1500 C. The material is cubic, F- anti 43m, a = 14.676(15) A, V = 3161.31(57) A{sup 3}. The structure is based upon a three-dimensional framework consisting of {alpha}-Keggin [Al{sup [4]}Ti{sub 12}{sup [6]}O{sub 40}] clusters linked by sharing the O5 atoms. The Keggin-cluster-framework interpenetrates with the metal-oxide substructure that can be considered as a derivative of the fluorite structure. The crystal chemical formula of synthetic murataite-3C derived from the obtained structure model can be written as {sup [8]}Ca{sub 6}{sup [8]}Ca{sub 4}{sup [6]}Ti{sub 12}{sup [5]}Ti{sub 4}{sup [4]}AlO{sub 42}. Its comparison with the natural murataite shows that the synthetic material has a noticeably less number of vacancies in the cation substructure and contains five instead of four symmetrically independent cation positions. The presence of the additional site essentially increases the capacity of synthetic murataite with respect to large heavy cations such as actinides, rare earth and alkaline earth metals in comparison with the material of natural origin. (orig.)

  18. Superiority of quantitative exercise thallium-201 variables in determining long-term prognosis in ambulatory patients with chest pain: a comparison with cardiac catheterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, S.; Finkelstein, D.M.; Homma, S.; Leavitt, M.; Okada, R.D.; Boucher, C.A.

    1988-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic utility of quantitative exercise thallium-201 imaging and compare it with that of cardiac catheterization in ambulatory patients. Accordingly, long-term (4 to 9 years) follow-up was obtained in 293 patients who underwent both tests for the evaluation of chest pain: 89 had undergone coronary artery bypass graft surgery within 3 months of testing and were excluded from analysis, 119 experienced no cardiac events and 91 had an event (death in 20, nonfatal myocardial infarction in 21 and coronary artery bypass operations performed greater than 3 months after cardiac catheterization in 50). When all variables were analyzed using Cox regression analysis, the quantitatively assessed lung/heart ratio of thallium-201 activity was the most important predictor of a future cardiac event (chi 2 = 40.21). Other significant predictors were the number of diseased vessels (chi 2 = 17.11), patient gender (chi 2 = 9.43) and change in heart rate from rest to exercise (chi 2 = 4.19). Whereas the number of diseased vessels was an important independent predictor of cardiac events, it did not add significantly to the overall ability of the exercise thallium-201 test to predict events. Furthermore, information obtained from thallium-201 imaging alone was marginally superior to that obtained from cardiac catheterization alone (p = 0.04) and significantly superior to that obtained from exercise testing alone (p = 0.02) in determining the occurrence of events. In addition, unlike the exercise thallium-201 test, which could predict the occurrence of all categories of events, catheterization data were not able to predict the occurrence of nonfatal myocardial infarction. The exclusion of bypass surgery and previous myocardial infarction did not alter the results

  19. FIRST LONG-TERM OPTICAL SPECTRAL MONITORING OF A BINARY BLACK HOLE CANDIDATE E1821+643. I. VARIABILITY OF SPECTRAL LINES AND CONTINUUM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapovalova, A. I.; Burenkov, A. N.; Zhdanova, V. E.; Popović, L. Č.; Chavushyan, V. H.; Valdés, J. R.; Patiño-Álvarez, V.; León-Tavares, J.; Torrealba, J.; Ilić, D.; Kovačević, A.; Kollatschny, W.

    2016-01-01

    We report the results of the first long-term (1990–2014) optical spectrophotometric monitoring of a binary black hole candidate QSO E1821+643, a low-redshift, high-luminosity, radio-quiet quasar. In the monitored period, the continua and Hγ fluxes changed about two times, while the Hβ flux changed about 1.4 times. We found periodical variations in the photometric flux with periods of 1200, 1850, and 4000 days, and 4500-day periodicity in the spectroscopic variations. However, the periodicity of 4000–4500 days covers only one cycle of variation and should be confirmed with a longer monitoring campaign. There is an indication of the period around 1300 days in the spectroscopic light curves, buts with small significance level, while the 1850-day period could not be clearly identified in the spectroscopic light curves. The line profiles have not significantly changed, showing an important red asymmetry and broad line peak redshifted around +1000 km s −1 . However, Hβ shows a broader mean profile and has a larger time lag (τ ∼ 120 days) than Hγ (τ ∼ 60 days). We estimate that the mass of the black hole is ∼2.6 × 10 9 M ⊙ . The obtained results are discussed in the frame of the binary black hole hypothesis. To explain the periodicity in the flux variability and high redshift of the broad lines, we discuss a scenario where dense, gas-rich, cloudy-like structures are orbiting around a recoiling black hole

  20. Use of a forest sapwood area index to explain long-term variability in mean annual evapotranspiration and streamflow in moist eucalypt forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benyon, Richard G.; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Jaskierniak, Dominik; Kuczera, George; Haydon, Shane R.

    2015-07-01

    Mean sapwood thickness, measured in fifteen 73 year old Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis stands, correlated strongly with forest overstorey stocking density (R2 0.72). This curvilinear relationship was used with routine forest stocking density and basal area measurements to estimate sapwood area of the forest overstorey at various times in 15 research catchments in undisturbed and disturbed forests located in the Great Dividing Range, Victoria, Australia. Up to 45 years of annual precipitation and streamflow data available from the 15 catchments were used to examine relationships between mean annual loss (evapotranspiration estimated as mean annual precipitation minus mean annual streamflow), and sapwood area. Catchment mean sapwood area correlated strongly (R2 0.88) with catchment mean annual loss. Variation in sapwood area accounted for 68% more variation in mean annual streamflow than precipitation alone (R2 0.90 compared with R2 0.22). Changes in sapwood area accounted for 96% of the changes in mean annual loss observed after forest thinning or clear-cutting and regeneration. We conclude that forest inventory data can be used reliably to predict spatial and temporal variation in catchment annual losses and streamflow in response to natural and imposed disturbances in even-aged forests. Consequently, recent advances in mapping of sapwood area using airborne light detection and ranging will enable high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of mean annual loss and mean annual streamflow over large areas of forested catchment. This will be particularly beneficial in management of water resources from forested catchments subject to disturbance but lacking reliable long-term (years to decades) streamflow records.

  1. Increased long-term recreational physical activity is associated with older age at natural menopause among heavy smokers: the California Teachers Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emaus, Aina; Dieli-Conwright, Christina; Xu, Xinxin; Lacey, James V; Ingles, Sue A; Reynolds, Peggy; Bernstein, Leslie; Henderson, Katherine D

    2013-03-01

    Although physical activity modulates the hypothalamic-pituitary-ovarian axis, the few studies that have investigated whether physical activity is associated with age at natural menopause have yielded mixed results. We set out to determine whether physical activity is associated with the timing of natural menopause in a large cohort of California women overall and by smoking history. We investigated the association between long-term physical activity (h/wk/y) and age at natural menopause among 97,945 women in the California Teachers Study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression methods were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The impact of cigarette smoking (never smoker, former light smoker, former heavy smoker, current light smoker, and current heavy smoker) as an effect modifier was evaluated. In a multivariable model adjusted for body mass index at age 18 years, age at menarche, race/ethnicity, and age at first full-term pregnancy, increased physical activity was statistically significantly associated with older age at natural menopause (P(trend) = 0.005). Higher body mass index at age 18 years (P(trend) = 0.0003) and older age at menarche (P(trend) = 0.0003) were also associated with older age at natural menopause. Hispanic ethnicity (vs non-Hispanic whites; HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.09-1.26), current smokers (vs never smokers; HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.60-1.75 for current light smokers; HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.33-1.44 for current heavy smokers), and older age at first full-term pregnancy (HR(≥29, 2+ full-term pregnancies) vs HR(menopause. Upon stratification by smoking history, increased physical activity was statistically significantly associated with older age at natural menopause among heavy smokers only (HR(highest quartile) vs HR(lowest quartile), 0.88; 95% CI, 0.81-0.97; P(trend) = 0.02 for former heavy smokers; HR(highest quartile) vs HR(lowest quartile), 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80-0.99; P(trend) = 0.04 for current heavy

  2. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    45 years helping in developing countries! CERN personnel have been helping the least fortunate people on the planet since 1971. How? With the Long-Term Collections! Dear Colleagues, The Staff Association’s Long-Term Collections (LTC) Committee is delighted to share this important milestone in the life of our Laboratory with you. Indeed, whilst the name of CERN is known worldwide for scientific discoveries, it also shines in the many humanitarian projects which have been supported by the LTC since 1971. Several schools and clinics, far and wide, carry its logo... Over the past 45 years, 74 projects have been supported (9 of which are still ongoing). This all came from a group of colleagues who wanted to share a little of what life offered them here at CERN, in this haven of mutual understanding, peace and security, with those who were less fortunate elsewhere. Thus, the LTC were born... Since then, we have worked as a team to maintain the dream of these visionaries, with the help of regular donat...

  3. Collectes à long terme

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2014-01-01

    En cette fin d’année 2014 qui approche à grands pas, le Comité des Collectes à Long Terme remercie chaleureusement ses fidèles donatrices et donateurs réguliers pour leurs contributions à nos actions en faveur des plus démunis de notre planète. C’est très important, pour notre Comité, de pouvoir compter sur l’appui assidu que vous nous apportez. Depuis plus de 40 ans maintenant, le modèle des CLT est basé principalement sur des actions à long terme (soit une aide pendant 4-5 ans par projet, mais plus parfois selon les circonstances), et sa planification demande une grande régularité de ses soutiens financiers. Grand MERCI à vous ! D’autres dons nous parviennent au cours de l’année, et ils sont aussi les bienvenus. En particulier, nous tenons à remercier...

  4. Land-use regression with long-term satellite-based greenness index and culture-specific sources to model PM2.5 spatial-temporal variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chih-Da; Chen, Yu-Cheng; Pan, Wen-Chi; Zeng, Yu-Ting; Chen, Mu-Jean; Guo, Yue Leon; Lung, Shih-Chun Candice

    2017-05-01

    This study utilized a long-term satellite-based vegetation index, and considered culture-specific emission sources (temples and Chinese restaurants) with Land-use Regression (LUR) modelling to estimate the spatial-temporal variability of PM 2.5 using data from Taipei metropolis, which exhibits typical Asian city characteristics. Annual average PM 2.5 concentrations from 2006 to 2012 of 17 air quality monitoring stations established by Environmental Protection Administration of Taiwan were used for model development. PM 2.5 measurements from 2013 were used for external data verification. Monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images coupled with buffer analysis were used to assess the spatial-temporal variations of greenness surrounding the monitoring sites. The distribution of temples and Chinese restaurants were included to represent the emission contributions from incense and joss money burning, and gas cooking, respectively. Spearman correlation coefficient and stepwise regression were used for LUR model development, and 10-fold cross-validation and external data verification were applied to verify the model reliability. The results showed a strongly negative correlation (r: -0.71 to -0.77) between NDVI and PM 2.5 while temples (r: 0.52 to 0.66) and Chinese restaurants (r: 0.31 to 0.44) were positively correlated to PM 2.5 concentrations. With the adjusted model R 2 of 0.89, a cross-validated adj-R 2 of 0.90, and external validated R 2 of 0.83, the high explanatory power of the resultant model was confirmed. Moreover, the averaged NDVI within a 1750 m circular buffer (p < 0.01), the number of Chinese restaurants within a 1750 m buffer (p < 0.01), and the number of temples within a 750 m buffer (p = 0.06) were selected as important predictors during the stepwise selection procedures. According to the partial R 2 , NDVI explained 66% of PM 2.5 variation and was the dominant variable in the developed model. We suggest future studies

  5. A long-term assessment of the variability in winter use of dense conifer cover by female white-tailed deer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glenn D Delgiudice

    Full Text Available Long-term studies allow capture of a wide breadth of environmental variability and a broader context within which to maximize our understanding of relationships to specific aspects of wildlife behavior. The goal of our study was to improve our understanding of the biological value of dense conifer cover to deer on winter range relative to snow depth and ambient temperature.We examined variation among deer in their use of dense conifer cover during a 12-year study period as potentially influenced by winter severity and cover availability. Female deer were fitted with a mixture of very high frequency (VHF, n = 267 and Global Positioning System (GPS, n = 24 collars for monitoring use of specific cover types at the population and individual levels, respectively. We developed habitat composites for four study sites. We fit multinomial response models to VHF (daytime data to describe population-level use patterns as a function of snow depth, ambient temperature, and cover availability. To develop alternative hypotheses regarding expected spatio-temporal patterns in the use of dense conifer cover, we considered two sets of competing sub-hypotheses. The first set addressed whether or not dense conifer cover was limiting on the four study sites. The second set considered four alternative sub-hypotheses regarding the potential influence of snow depth and ambient temperature on space use patterns. Deer use of dense conifer cover increased the most with increasing snow depth and most abruptly on the two sites where it was most available, suggestive of an energy conservation strategy. Deer use of dense cover decreased the most with decreasing temperatures on the sites where it was most available. At all four sites deer made greater daytime use (55 to >80% probability of use of open vegetation types at the lowest daily minimum temperatures indicating the importance of thermal benefits afforded from increased exposure to solar radiation. Date

  6. Detecting the long-term impacts from climate variability and increasing water consumption on runoff in the Krishna river basin (India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Bouwer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations in climate, land-use and water consumption can have profound effects on river runoff. There is an increasing demand to study these factors at the regional to river basin-scale since these effects will particularly affect water resources management at this level. This paper presents a method that can help to differentiate between the effects of man-made hydrological developments and climate variability (including both natural variability and anthropogenic climate change at the basin scale. We show and explain the relation between climate, water consumption and changes in runoff for the Krishna river basin in central India. River runoff variability due to observed climate variability and increased water consumption for irrigation and hydropower is simulated for the last 100 years (1901–2000 using the STREAM water balance model. Annual runoff under climate variability is shown to vary only by about 14–34 millimetres (6–15%. It appears that reservoir construction after 1960 and increasing water consumption has caused a persistent decrease in annual river runoff of up to approximately 123 mm (61%. Variation in runoff under climate variability only would have decreased over the period under study, but we estimate that increasing water consumption has caused runoff variability that is three times higher.

  7. The long-term effect of hydrogen on the UO2 spent fuel stability under anoxic conditions: Findings from the Cigar Lake Natural Analogue study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruno, Jordi; Spahiu, Kastriot

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We have reviewed current information on the effect of hydrogen in UO 2 spent fuel. • We explored the radiolytic models generated in the Cigar Lake project. • The Cigar Lake data supports that H 2 reduces alpha radiolysis oxidants. • The results indicate the hydrogen effect is present after 100.000 years deposition. - Abstract: The present paradigm on UO 2 spent fuel stability under anoxic conditions assumes that the potential oxidative alteration of the matrix is suppressed in the presence of the hydrogen generated by the anoxic corrosion of iron by water. The observations from the Cigar Lake Natural Analogue project indicated the long-term stability of the uraninite ore under anoxic conditions and with substantial hydrogen generation. The radiolytic models developed in the analogue project have been used to test some of the hypothesis concerning the activation of hydrogen on the uranium(IV) oxide surface. Suggestions to pathways of radiolytic oxidant consumption by other processes than uranium dioxide or sulphide oxidation are presented. The stability of the ore body for billions of year indicates the presence of processes which neutralise radiolytic oxidants and one major factor may be the presence of dissolved hydrogen in the groundwaters contacting the ore body. The results from this test would indicate that hydrogen is activated on the surface of the Cigar Lake uraninites by alpha radiation consuming the generated radiolytic oxidants

  8. Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Yucca Mountain Tuff and its Variability, Final Technical Report for Task ORD-FY04-021

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daemen, Jaak J.K.; Ma, Lumin; Zhao, Guohua

    2006-01-01

    The study of the long term mechanical behavior of Yucca Mountain tuffs is important for several reasons. Long term stability of excavations will affect accessibility (e.g. for inspection purposes), and retrievability. Long term instabilities may induce loading of drip shields and/or emplaced waste, thus affecting drip shield and/or waste package corrosion. Failure of excavations will affect airflow, may affect water flow, and may affect temperature distributions. The long term mechanical behavior of rocks remains an elusive topic, loaded with uncertainties. A variety of approaches have been used to improve the understanding of this complex subject, but it is doubtful that it has reached a stage where firm predictions can be considered feasible. The long term mechanical behavior of ''soft'' rocks, especially evaporites, and in particular rock salt, has been the subject of numerous investigations (e.g. Cristescu and Hunsche, 1998, Cristescu et al, 2002), and basic approaches towards engineering taking into account the long term behavior of such materials have long been well established (e.g. Dreyer, 1972, 1982). The same is certainly not true of ''hard'' rocks. While it long has been recognized that the long term strength of ''hard'' rocks almost certainly is significantly less than that measured during ''short'', i.e. standard (ASTM D 2938), ISRM suggested (Bieniawski et al, 1978) and conventionally used test procedures (e.g. Bieniawski, 1970, Wawersik, 1972, Hoek and Brown, 1980, p. 150), what limited approaches have been taken to develop strategies toward determining the long term mechanical behavior of ''hard'' rock remain in the early research and investigation stage, at best. One early model developed specifically for time dependent analysis of underground ''hard'' rock structures is the phenomenological model by Kaiser and Morgenstern (1981). Brady and Brown (1985, p. 93) state that over a wide range of strain rates, from 10 -8 to 10 2 /s the difference in

  9. Contributions of vitreous natural analogs to the investigation of long-term nuclear glass behavior; Apports des analogues naturels vitreux a la validation des codes de prediction du comportement a long terme des verres nucleaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Techer, I

    1999-07-01

    This study assesses the extend of the analogy between the alteration behavior in water and in a moist clay environment of aluminosilicate volcanic glass and alumino-borosilicate nuclear containment glass. Basaltic glass alteration in water initially occurs by hydrolysis processes with an activation energy on the order of 73 kJ.mol{sup -1}. As the reaction progresses, the alteration rate drops by over four orders of magnitude from the initial rate r{sub 0}, The alteration kinetics are not governed by the alteration solution chemistry alone, the glass alteration film appears to have a major role as a diffusion barrier limiting the transfer of reaction species and products. All these aspects highlight the behavioral analogy between basaltic glass and nuclear borosilicate glass in aqueous media. Conversely, the alteration reaction of obsidian-type volcanic glass involves other mechanisms than those governing the dissolution of borosilicate glass. Basaltic glass alteration is also examined in the presence of a clay environmental material, in a study of the natural basaltic glass and argillaceous pelites system of the Salagou basin in southern France, in an approach combining mineralogical, chemical and isotopic data to assess the interactions between a basaltic glass and the argillaceous pelites. Laboratory leach test results with basaltic glass and measured data for the Salagou glass in its natural environment are modeled using a code implementing a kinetic law coupling diffusive transfer of dissolved silica with a reaction affinity law. (author)

  10. Long term developments in irradiated natural uranium processing costs. Optimal size and siting of plants; Perspectives a long terme des couts de traitement de l'uranium naturel irradie. Tailles et localisations optimales des usines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thiriet, L [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires; Oger, C; Vaumas, P de [Saint-Gobain Nucleaire, 92 - Courbevoie (France)

    1964-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to help solve the problem of the selection of optimal sizes and sites for spent nuclear fuel processing plants associated with power capacity programmes already installed. Firstly, the structure of capital and running costs of irradiated natural uranium processing plants is studied, as well as the influence of plant sizes on these costs and structures. Shipping costs from the production site to the plant must also be added to processing costs. An attempt to reach a minimum cost for the production of a country or a group of countries must therefore take into account both the size and the location of the plants. The foreseeable shipping costs and their structure (freight, insurance, container cost and depreciation), for spent natural uranium are indicated. Secondly, for various annual spent fuel reprocessing programmes, the optimal sizes and locations of the plants are determined. The sensitivity of the results to the basic assumptions relative to processing costs, shipping costs, the starting up year of the plant programme and the length of period considered, is also tested. - this rather complex problem, of a combinative nature, is solved through dynamic programming methods. - It is shown that these methods can also be applied to the problem of selecting the optimal sizes and locations of processing plants for MTR type fuel elements, related to research reactor programmes, as well as to future plutonium element processing plants related to breeder reactors. Thirdly, the case where yearly extraction of the plutonium contained in the irradiated natural uranium is not compulsory is examined; some stockpiling of the fuel is then allowed some years, entailing delayed processing. The load factor of such plants is thus greatly improved with respect to that of plants where the annual plutonium demand is strictly satisfied. By including spent natural uranium stockpiling costs an optimal rhythm of introduction and optimal sizes for spent fuel

  11. 2002 Status of coral reefs on the main volcanic islands of American Samoa: a resurvey of long term monitoring sites including benthic communities, fish communities, and key macroinvertebrates (NODC Accession 0001976)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This study demonstrates the important role that long term monitoring programs can play in understanding the natural variability and long term trends in the coral...

  12. Year 2000 status of coral reefs on the main volcanic islands of American Samoa: a resurvey of long term monitoring sites including benthic communities, fish communities, and key micro invertebrates (NODC Accession 0001976)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This study demonstrates the important role that long term monitoring programs can play in understanding the natural variability and long term trends in the coral...

  13. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  14. A long-term time series of global and diffuse photosynthetically active radiation in the Mediterranean: interannual variability and cloud effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Trisolino

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Measurements of global and diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR have been carried out on the island of Lampedusa, in the central Mediterranean Sea, since 2002. PAR is derived from observations made with multi-filter rotating shadowband radiometers (MFRSRs by comparison with a freshly calibrated PAR sensor and by relying on the on-site Langley plots. In this way, a long-term calibrated record covering the period 2002–2016 is obtained and is presented in this work. The monthly mean global PAR peaks in June, with about 160 W m−2, while the diffuse PAR reaches 60 W m−2 in spring or summer. The global PAR displays a clear annual cycle with a semi amplitude of about 52 W m−2. The diffuse PAR annual cycle has a semi amplitude of about 12 W m−2. A simple method to retrieve the cloud-free PAR global and diffuse irradiances in days characterized by partly cloudy conditions has been implemented and applied to the dataset. This method allows retrieval of the cloud-free evolution of PAR and calculation of the cloud radiative effect, CRE, for downwelling PAR. The cloud-free monthly mean global PAR reaches 175 W m−2 in summer, while the diffuse PAR peaks at about 40 W m−2. The cloud radiative effect, CRE, on global and diffuse PAR is calculated as the difference between all-sky and cloud-free measurements. The annual average CRE is about −14.7 W m−2 for the global PAR and +8.1 W m−2 for the diffuse PAR. The smallest CRE is observed in July, due to the high cloud-free condition frequency. Maxima (negative for the global, and positive for the diffuse component occur in March–April and in October, due to the combination of elevated PAR irradiances and high occurrence of cloudy conditions. Summer clouds appear to be characterized by a low frequency of occurrence, low altitude, and low optical thickness, possibly linked to the peculiar marine boundary layer structure. These properties also contribute

  15. Accelerated partial breast irradiation: An analysis of variables associated with late toxicity and long-term cosmetic outcome after high-dose-rate interstitial brachytherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wazer, David E.; Kaufman, Seth; Cuttino, Laurie; Di Petrillo, Thomas; Arthur, Douglas W.

    2006-01-01

    . Suboptimal cosmetic outcome was significantly associated with the number of source dwell positions, V150, and V200 and inversely associated with DHI (0.77 vs. 0.73; p = 0.05). Late skin toxicity was rated as Grade 0, 1, or 2 in 77%, 19%, and 4% of patients, respectively. The risk of Grade 1/2 skin toxicity was significantly associated with V150 and V200 and inversely associated with DHI (0.77 vs. 0.71; p = 0.009). Late subcutaneous toxicity was rated as Grade 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 in 55%, 15%, 12%, 5%, and 13% of patients, respectively. The risk of Grade 0/1 vs. Grade 2-4 subcutaneous toxicity was significantly associated only with a lower value of DHI (0.77 vs. 0.73; p = 0.02). To further explore factors that might contribute to the risk of fat necrosis (symptomatic or asymptomatic), a separate analysis showed that only dose hotspots as reflected in V150 and V200 were significantly associated with elevated risk. The use of adriamycin-based chemotherapy after APBI was found to be associated with a significant increase in the incidence of higher-grade skin toxicity and a higher risk of fat necrosis and suboptimal cosmetic outcome. Patient age, volume of resection, extent of axillary surgery, a history of diabetes or hypertension, and the use of tamoxifen were not found to be significantly associated with cosmetic outcome or late normal tissue complications. Conclusions: Long-term cosmetic results and the risk of late skin and subcutaneous toxicity after APBI with interstitial HDR brachytherapy can be correlated with specific treatment-related variables. These data provide dosimetric parameters that might be used to minimize the risk of normal tissue injury after APBI interstitial brachytherapy

  16. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wanyun; Xu, Xiaobin; Lin, Meiyun; Lin, Weili; Tarasick, David; Tang, Jie; Ma, Jianzhong; Zheng, Xiangdong

    2018-01-01

    Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l.) on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994-2013 has increased significantly by 0.2-0.3 ppbv yr-1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3), a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) can explain ˜ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1). AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why summertime ozone measured at WLG shows no significant trend

  17. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  18. Changes in soil physical and chemical properties in long term improved natural and traditional agroforestry management systems of cacao genotypes in Peruvian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arévalo-Gardini, Enrique; Canto, Manuel; Alegre, Julio; Loli, Oscar; Julca, Alberto; Baligar, Virupax

    2015-01-01

    Growing cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) in an agroforestry system generates a productive use of the land, preserves the best conditions for physical, chemical and biological properties of tropical soils, and plays an important role in improving cacao production and fertility of degraded tropical soils. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of two long term agroforestry systems of cacao management on soil physical and chemical properties in an area originally inhabited by 30 years old native secondary forest (SF). The two agroforestry systems adapted were: improved natural agroforestry system (INAS) where trees without economic value were selectively removed to provide 50% shade and improved traditional agroforestry system (ITAS) where all native trees were cut and burnt in the location. For evaluation of the changes of soil physical and chemical properties with time due to the imposed cacao management systems, plots of 10 cacao genotypes (ICS95, UF613, CCN51, ICT1112, ICT1026, ICT2162, ICT2171, ICT2142, H35, U30) and one plot with a spontaneous hybrid were selected. Soil samples were taken at 0-20, 20-40 and 40-60 cm depths before the installation of the management systems (2004), and then followed at two years intervals. Bulk density, porosity, field capacity and wilting point varied significantly during the years of assessment in the different soil depths and under the systems assessed. Soil pH, CEC, exchangeable Mg and sum of the bases were higher in the INAS than the ITAS. In both systems, SOM, Ext. P, K and Fe, exch. K, Mg and Al+H decreased with years of cultivation; these changes were more evident in the 0-20 cm soil depth. Overall improvement of SOM and soil nutrient status was much higher in the ITAS than INAS. The levels of physical and chemical properties of soil under cacao genotypes showed a marked difference in both systems.

  19. Bacterial Community Structure in a Mollisol Under Long-Term Natural Restoration, Cropping, and Bare Fallow History Estimated by PCR-DGGE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Guang-Hua; JIN Jian; LIU Jun-Jie; CHEN Xue-Li; LIU Ju-Dong; LIU Xiao-Bing

    2009-01-01

    Soil microbial biomass and community structures are commonly used as indicators for soil quality and fertility.A investigation was performed to study the effects of long-term natural restoration,cropping,and bare fallow managements on the soil microbial biomass and bacterial community structures in depths of 0-10,20-30,and 40-50 cm in a black soil (Mollisol).Microbial biomass was estimated from chloroform fumigation-extraction,and bacterial community structures were determined by analysis of 16S rDNA using polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCRDGGE).Experimental results showed that microbial biomass significantly declined with soil depth in the managements of restoration and cropping,but not in the bare fallow.DGGE profiles indicated that the band number in top 0-10 cm soils was less than that in depth of 20-30 or 40-50 cm.These suggested that the microbial population was high but the bacterial community structure was simple in the topsoil.Cluster and principle component analysis based on DGGE banding patterns showed that the bacterial community structure was affected by soil depth more primarily than by managements,and the succession of bacterial community as increase of soil depth has a similar tendency in the three managements.Fourteen predominating DGGE bands were excised and sequenced,in which 6 bands were identified as the taxa of Verrucomicrobia,2 bands as Actinobacteria,2 bands as α-Proteobacteria,and the other 4 bands as δ-Proteobacteria,Acidobacteria,Nitrospira,and unclassified bacteria.In addition,the sequences of 11 DGGE bands were closely related to uncultured bacteria.Thus,the bacterial community structure in black soil was stable,and the predominating bacterial groups were uncultured.

  20. Transient nature of long-term nonprogression and broad virus-specific proliferative T-cell responses with sustained thymic output in HIV-1 controllers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samantha J Westrop

    Full Text Available HIV-1(+ individuals who, without therapy, conserve cellular anti-HIV-1 responses, present with high, stable CD4(+ T-cell numbers, and control viral replication, facilitate analysis of atypical viro-immunopathology. In the absence of universal definition, immune function in such HIV controllers remains an indication of non-progression.CD4 T-cell responses to a number of HIV-1 proteins and peptide pools were assessed by IFN-gamma ELISpot and lymphoproliferative assays in HIV controllers and chronic progressors. Thymic output was assessed by sjTRECs levels. Follow-up of 41 HIV-1(+ individuals originally identified as "Long-term non-progressors" in 1996 according to clinical criteria, and longitudinal analysis of two HIV controllers over 22 years, was also performed. HIV controllers exhibited substantial IFN-gamma producing and proliferative HIV-1-specific CD4 T-cell responses to both recombinant proteins and peptide pools of Tat, Rev, Nef, Gag and Env, demonstrating functional processing and presentation. Conversely, HIV-specific T-cell responses were limited to IFN-gamma production in chronic progressors. Additionally, thymic output was approximately 19 fold higher in HIV controllers than in age-matched chronic progressors. Follow-up of 41 HIV-1(+ patients identified as LTNP in 1996 revealed the transitory characteristics of this status. IFN-gamma production and proliferative T-cell function also declines in 2 HIV controllers over 22 years.Although increased thymic output and anti-HIV-1 T-cell responses are observed in HIV controllers compared to chronic progressors, the nature of nonprogressor/controller status appears to be transitory.

  1. LONG TERM COLLECTIONS

    CERN Multimedia

    STAFF ASSOCIATION

    2010-01-01

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Long-Term Collections (CLT) committee would like to warmly thank its faithful donors who, year after year, support our actions all over the world. Without you, all this would not be possible. We would like to thank, in particular, the CERN Firemen’s Association who donated 5000 CHF in the spring thanks to the sale of their traditional calendar, and the generosity of the CERN community. A huge thank you to the firemen for their devotion to our cause. And thank you to all those who have opened their door, their heart, and their purses! Similarly, we warmly thank the CERN Yoga Club once again for its wonderful donation of 2000 CHF we recently received. We would also like to tell you that all our projects are running well. Just to remind you, we are currently supporting the activities of the «Réflexe-Partage» Association in Mali; the training centre of «Education et Développement» in Abomey, Benin; and the orphanage and ...

  2. Estimating regional long-term economic consequences of natural hazards - a case study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, C.; Lochner, B.; Brucker, A.

    2012-04-01

    The interaction of relief-driven alpine natural processes with the anthropogenic sphere often leads to natural disasters which significantly impact on remote alpine economies. When evaluating the effects of such events for future risk prevention strategies, it is essential to assess indirect losses. While the economic measurement of direct effects - the physical impact on structures and infrastructure - seems fairly manageable, less is known about the dimensions of indirect effects, especially on a local and regional scale within the Alps. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods to estimate indirect economic effects currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the main drivers of indirect effects and interrupted economic flows. In collaboration with the Federal State administration, we extrapolate the total regional economic effects of this catastrophic event. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. We mainly focus on the decrease in value creation and the negative impacts on tourism. We observed that disrupted traffic networks can have a highly negative impact, especially for the tourism sector in lateral alpine valleys. Within a month, turnover fell by approximately EUR 3.3 million in the investigated area. In the short run (until August 2006), the shortfall in touristic revenues in the Paznaun valley aggregated to approx. EUR 5.3 million. We observed that overnight stays rebound very quickly so that long-term effects are marginal. In addition, we tried to identify possible economical losers as well as winners of severe hazard impacts. In response to such flood events, high investments are made to improve disaster and risk management. Nearly 70% of the respondents specified the (re)construction sector and similar

  3. Long-term biodosimetry Redux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

    2016-01-01

    This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

  4. Detecting robust signals of interannual variability of gross primary productivity in Asia from multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models and long-term satellite-based vegetation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Ueyama, M.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Sasai, T.; Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Saigusa, N.

    2014-12-01

    Long term record of satellite-based terrestrial vegetation are important to evaluate terrestrial carbon cycle models. In this study, we demonstrate how multiple satellite observation can be used for evaluating past changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and detecting robust anomalies in terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia through our model-data synthesis analysis, Asia-MIP. We focused on the two different temporal coverages: long-term (30 years; 1982-2011) and decadal (10 years; 2001-2011; data intensive period) scales. We used a NOAA/AVHRR NDVI record for long-term analysis and multiple satellite data and products (e.g. Terra-MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION) as historical satellite data, and multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models (e.g. BEAMS, Biome-BGC, ORCHIDEE, SEIB-DGVM, and VISIT). As a results of long-term (30 years) trend analysis, satellite-based time-series data showed that approximately 40% of the area has experienced a significant increase in the NDVI, while only a few areas have experienced a significant decreasing trend over the last 30 years. The increases in the NDVI were dominant in the sub-continental regions of Siberia, East Asia, and India. Simulations using the terrestrial biosphere models also showed significant increases in GPP, similar to the results for the NDVI, in boreal and temperate regions. A modeled sensitivity analysis showed that the increases in GPP are explained by increased temperature and precipitation in Siberia. Precipitation, solar radiation, CO2fertilization and land cover changes are important factors in the tropical regions. However, the relative contributions of each factor to GPP changes are different among the models. Year-to-year variations of terrestrial GPP were overall consistently captured by the satellite data and terrestrial carbon cycle models if the anomalies are large (e.g. 2003 summer GPP anomalies in East Asia and 2002 spring GPP anomalies in mid to high latitudes). The behind mechanisms can be consistently

  5. Application feasibility study of evaluation technology for long-term rock behavior. 2. Parameter setting of variable compliance type model and application feasibility study for rock behavior evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Shin; Noda, Masaru; Niunoya, Sumio; Hata, Koji; Matsui, Hiroya; Mikake, Shinichiro

    2012-01-01

    Creep phenomenon is one of the long-term rock behaviors. In many of rock-creep studies, model and parameter have been verified in 2D analysis using model parameter acquired by uniaxial compression test etc considering rock types. Therefore, in this study model parameter was set by uniaxial compression test with classified rock samples which were taken from pilot boring when the main shaft was constructed. Then, comparison between measured value and 3D excavation analysis with identified parameter was made. By and large, the study showed that validity of identification methodology of parameter to identify reproduction of measured value and analysis method. (author)

  6. The long-term variability of atmospheric ozone from the 50-yr observations carried out at Belsk (51.84°N, 20.78°E, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JANUSZ W. Krzyścin

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Total ozone (TO3 and ozone vertical profile (by the Umkehr method have been measured at Belsk (51.84°N, 20.78°E, Poland, since March 1963. The monthly mean data are analysed for the long-term changes in the period 1975–1996 and 1997–2012, that is, in the increasing and decreasing phases of the ozone-depleting substances (ODS concentration in the mid-altitude stratosphere over the NH mid-latitudes. Standard explanatory variables are selected for the ozone variability attribution to chemical and dynamical processes. A triad of regression models with various formulae for the trend term is examined to get a synergetic effect. The trend term could be: (1 proportional to ODS, (2 piecewise linear (with the turning points in 1975 – the trend onset and in 1997 – the trend overturning, (3 represented by any smooth curve fitted to the ozone time series having ‘natural variations’ removed. Confirming the results from previous studies on the midlatitudinal ozone, the analyses show a weakening of the TO3 trend and the statistically significant positive trend in the upper stratospheric region (33–43 km since 1997. The TO3 depletion in summer and autumn for the period 1997–2012 is found in the Umkehr data due to the ozone decrease in the lower and mid-stratosphere. A novel statistical-simulation-based test is proposed. It uses the bootstrap sample of the smooth trend pattern to calculate statistical significance of hypotheses for the trend variability. The test corroborates the results of the regression models and shows strengthening of the ozone negative trend in summer and autumn, disclosed in the Umkehr data, since about 2005.

  7. Wildlife disease ecology from the individual to the population: Insights from a long-term study of a naturally infected European badger population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Jenni L; Robertson, Andrew; Silk, Matthew J

    2018-01-01

    Long-term individual-based datasets on host-pathogen systems are a rare and valuable resource for understanding the infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. A study of European badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) at Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire (UK) has produced a unique dataset, facilitating investigation of a diverse range of epidemiological and ecological questions with implications for disease management. Since the 1970s, this badger population has been monitored with a systematic mark-recapture regime yielding a dataset of >15,000 captures of >3,000 individuals, providing detailed individual life-history, morphometric, genetic, reproductive and disease data. The annual prevalence of bTB in the Woodchester Park badger population exhibits no straightforward relationship with population density, and both the incidence and prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis show marked variation in space. The study has revealed phenotypic traits that are critical for understanding the social structure of badger populations along with mechanisms vital for understanding disease spread at different spatial resolutions. Woodchester-based studies have provided key insights into how host ecology can influence infection at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, it has revealed heterogeneity in epidemiological parameters; intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting population dynamics; provided insights into senescence and individual life histories; and revealed consistent individual variation in foraging patterns, refuge use and social interactions. An improved understanding of ecological and epidemiological processes is imperative for effective disease management. Woodchester Park research has provided information of direct relevance to bTB management, and a better appreciation of the role of individual heterogeneity in disease transmission can contribute further in this regard. The Woodchester Park study system now offers a rare

  8. Development and in vitro characterization of poly(lactide-co-glycolide microspheres loaded with an antibacterial natural drug for the treatment of long-term bacterial infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinbold J

    2016-09-01

    -loaded microspheres was determined using transmission electron microscopy. No biofilm formation could be detected, even if the totarol concentration was below the minimal inhibitory concentration. The hemocompatibility investigations on various markers with fresh heparinized blood (1.5 IU/mL showed that totarol and totarol-loaded microspheres have no influence on different blood parameters. The PLGA microspheres characterized by slow release of totarol and great entrapment efficiency represent a novel drug delivery system, which may be highly beneficial for the long-term therapy of bacterial infections. Keywords: totarol, drug delivery system, Staphylococcus aureus, antibacterial, cytotoxicity

  9. Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Sidharth

    2014-01-01

    Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

  10. Inter-annual variability of NDVI in response to long-term warming and fertilization in wet sedge and tussock tundra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boelman, Natalie T; Stieglitz, Marc; Griffin, Kevin L; Shaver, Gaius R

    2005-05-01

    This study explores the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aboveground plant biomass for tussock tundra vegetation and compares it to a previously established NDVI-biomass relationship for wet sedge tundra vegetation. In addition, we explore inter-annual variation in NDVI in both these contrasting vegetation communities. All measurements were taken across long-term experimental treatments in wet sedge and tussock tundra communities at the Toolik Lake Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, in northern Alaska. Over 15 years (for wet sedge tundra) and 14 years (for tussock tundra), N and P were applied in factorial experiments (N, P and N+P), air temperature was increased using greenhouses with and without N+P fertilizer, and light intensity was reduced by 50% using shade cloth. during the peak growing seasons of 2001, 2002, and 2003, NDVI measurements were made in both the wet sedge and tussock tundra experimental treatment plots, creating a 3-year time series of inter-annual variation in NDVI. We found that: (1) across all tussock experimental tundra treatments, NDVI is correlated with aboveground plant biomass (r2 = 0.59); (2) NDVI-biomass relationships for tussock and wet sedge tundra communities are community specific, and; (3) NDVI values for tussock tundra communities are typically, but not always, greater than for wet sedge tundra communities across all experimental treatments. We suggest that differences between the response of wet sedge and tussock tundra communities in the same experimental treatments result from the contrasting degree of heterogeneity in species and functional types that characterize each of these Arctic tundra vegetation communities.

  11. Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

    2016-02-01

    Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

  12. Decadal-scale variability of diffuse CO2 emissions and seismicity revealed from long-term monitoring (1995–2013) at Mammoth Mountain, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Cynthia A.; Bergfeld, Deborah; Farrar, Chris; Doukas, Michael P.; Kelly, Peter; Kern, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Mammoth Mountain, California, is a dacitic volcano that has experienced several periods of unrest since 1989. The onset of diffuse soil CO2 emissions at numerous locations on the flanks of the volcano began in 1989–1990 following an 11-month period of heightened seismicity. CO2 emission rates were measured yearly from 1995 to 2013 at Horseshoe Lake (HSL), the largest tree kill area on Mammoth Mountain, and measured intermittently at four smaller degassing areas around Mammoth from 2006 to 2013. The long-term record at HSL shows decadal-scale variations in CO2 emissions with two peaks in 2000–2001 and 2011–2012, both of which follow peaks in seismicity by 2–3 years. Between 2000 and 2004 emissions gradually declined during a seismically quiet period, and from 2004 to 2009 were steady at ~ 100 metric tonnes per day (t d− 1). CO2emissions at the four smaller tree-kill areas also increased by factors of 2–3 between 2006 and 2011–2012, demonstrating a mountain-wide increase in degassing. Delays between the peaks in seismicity and degassing have been observed at other volcanic and hydrothermal areas worldwide, and are thought to result from an injection of deep CO2-rich fluid into shallow subsurface reservoirs causing a pressurization event with a delayed transport to the surface. Such processes are consistent with previous studies at Mammoth, and here we highlight (1) the mountain-wide response, (2) the characteristic delay of 2–3 years, and (3) the roughly decadal reoccurrence interval for such behavior. Our best estimate of total CO2 degassing from Mammoth Mountain was 416 t d− 1 in 2011 during the peak of emissions, over half of which was emitted from HSL. The cumulative release of CO2 between 1995 and 2013 from diffuse emissions is estimated to be ~ 2–3 Mt, and extrapolation back to 1989 gives ~ 4.8 Mt. This amount of CO2 release is similar to that produced by the mid-sized (VEI 3) 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano in Alaska (~ 2.3

  13. HadISD: a quality-controlled global synoptic report database for selected variables at long-term stations from 1973–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Parker

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the creation of HadISD: an automatically quality-controlled synoptic resolution dataset of temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea-level pressure, wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover from global weather stations for 1973–2011. The full dataset consists of over 6000 stations, with 3427 long-term stations deemed to have sufficient sampling and quality for climate applications requiring sub-daily resolution. As with other surface datasets, coverage is heavily skewed towards Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The dataset is constructed from a large pre-existing ASCII flatfile data bank that represents over a decade of substantial effort at data retrieval, reformatting and provision. These raw data have had varying levels of quality control applied to them by individual data providers. The work proceeded in several steps: merging stations with multiple reporting identifiers; reformatting to netCDF; quality control; and then filtering to form a final dataset. Particular attention has been paid to maintaining true extreme values where possible within an automated, objective process. Detailed validation has been performed on a subset of global stations and also on UK data using known extreme events to help finalise the QC tests. Further validation was performed on a selection of extreme events world-wide (Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cold snap in Alaska in 1989 and heat waves in SE Australia in 2009. Some very initial analyses are performed to illustrate some of the types of problems to which the final data could be applied. Although the filtering has removed the poorest station records, no attempt has been made to homogenise the data thus far, due to the complexity of retaining the true distribution of high-resolution data when applying adjustments. Hence non-climatic, time-varying errors may still exist in many of the individual station records and care is needed in inferring long-term trends from these data. This

  14. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  15. Daily Course of CO2 Fluxes in the Atmosphere-Water System and Variable Fluorescence of Phytoplankton during the Open-Water Period for Lake Baikal according to Long-Term Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavoruev, V. V.; Domysheva, V. M.; Pestunov, D. A.; Sakirko, M. V.; Panchenko, M. V.

    2018-04-01

    The process of gas exchange of CO2 in the atmosphere-water system and its relation to the daily course of variable fluorescence of phytoplankton is studied on the basis of long-term (2004-2014) measurements during the open water period for Lake Baikal. It is found that the decrease in photosynthetic activity of plankton is almost synchronous to the increase in the CO2 flux from atmosphere to water. It follows from comparison of the spring and summer data with December measurements that the daily decrease in variable fluorescence of phytoplankton is caused by the internal daily rhythm of the photosynthetic activity of plankton.

  16. A Long-Term Follow-Up of the Efficacy of Nature-Based Therapy for Adults Suffering from Stress-Related Illnesses on Levels of Healthcare Consumption and Sick-Leave Absence: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corazon, Sus Sola; Nyed, Patrik Karlsson; Sidenius, Ulrik

    2018-01-01

    Stress-related illnesses are a growing health problem in the Western world; which also has economic significance for society. As a consequence; there is a growing demand for effective treatments. The study investigates the long-term efficacy of the Nacadia® nature-based therapy (NNBT) by comparing it to the efficacy of a validated cognitive behavioral therapy, called STreSS. The study is designed as a randomized controlled trial in which 84 participants are randomly allocated between the treatments. Long-term efficacy is investigated through data extracts from the national database of Statistics Denmark on the sick leave and the health-care consumption. The results show that both the NNBT and the STreSS lead to a significant decrease in number of contacts with a general practitioner in the period from twelve months prior to treatment to twelve months after treatment; and, a significant decrease in long-term sick leave from the month prior to treatment to twelve months after treatment. The positive long-term effects provide validation for the NNBT as an efficient treatment of stress-related illnesses. PMID:29342952

  17. A Long-Term Follow-Up of the Efficacy of Nature-Based Therapy for Adults Suffering from Stress-Related Illnesses on Levels of Healthcare Consumption and Sick-Leave Absence: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sus Sola Corazon

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Stress-related illnesses are a growing health problem in the Western world; which also has economic significance for society. As a consequence; there is a growing demand for effective treatments. The study investigates the long-term efficacy of the Nacadia® nature-based therapy (NNBT by comparing it to the efficacy of a validated cognitive behavioral therapy, called STreSS. The study is designed as a randomized controlled trial in which 84 participants are randomly allocated between the treatments. Long-term efficacy is investigated through data extracts from the national database of Statistics Denmark on the sick leave and the health-care consumption. The results show that both the NNBT and the STreSS lead to a significant decrease in number of contacts with a general practitioner in the period from twelve months prior to treatment to twelve months after treatment; and, a significant decrease in long-term sick leave from the month prior to treatment to twelve months after treatment. The positive long-term effects provide validation for the NNBT as an efficient treatment of stress-related illnesses.

  18. A Long-Term Follow-Up of the Efficacy of Nature-Based Therapy for Adults Suffering from Stress-Related Illnesses on Levels of Healthcare Consumption and Sick-Leave Absence: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corazon, Sus Sola; Nyed, Patrik Karlsson; Sidenius, Ulrik; Poulsen, Dorthe Varning; Stigsdotter, Ulrika Karlsson

    2018-01-15

    Stress-related illnesses are a growing health problem in the Western world; which also has economic significance for society. As a consequence; there is a growing demand for effective treatments. The study investigates the long-term efficacy of the Nacadia ® nature-based therapy (NNBT) by comparing it to the efficacy of a validated cognitive behavioral therapy, called STreSS. The study is designed as a randomized controlled trial in which 84 participants are randomly allocated between the treatments. Long-term efficacy is investigated through data extracts from the national database of Statistics Denmark on the sick leave and the health-care consumption. The results show that both the NNBT and the STreSS lead to a significant decrease in number of contacts with a general practitioner in the period from twelve months prior to treatment to twelve months after treatment; and, a significant decrease in long-term sick leave from the month prior to treatment to twelve months after treatment. The positive long-term effects provide validation for the NNBT as an efficient treatment of stress-related illnesses.

  19. Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kinsey, B.H.; Hoddinott, J; Alderman, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of pre-school malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects - instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought shocks are used to identify

  20. Deciphering long-term records of natural variability and human impact as recorded in lake sediments: a palaeolimnological puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mills, Keely; Schillereff, Daniel; Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie

    2017-01-01

    that is particularly acute when considering management options for aquatic ecosystems. The duration and timing of human impacts on lake systems varies geographically, with some regions of the world (such as Africa and South America) having a longer legacy of human impact than others (e.g., New Zealand). A wide array...... of techniques (biological, chemical, physical and statistical) is available to palaeolimnologists to allow the deciphering of complex sedimentary records. Lake sediments are an important archive of how drivers have changed through time, and how these impacts manifest in lake systems. With a paucity of ‘real...

  1. Long-term temporal variability of the radon-222 exhalation flux from a landform covered by low uranium grade waste rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollhöfer, Andreas; Doering, Che

    2016-01-01

    Radon-222 exhalation flux densities from two different substrates of several metres thickness, waste rock and waste rock mixed with approximately 30% lateritic material, were measured over a period of five years in the wet-dry tropics of Northern Australia. Fourteen measurement campaigns using activated charcoal canisters (n > 1000) covered both dry and wet seasons and showed differences in seasonal and long term trends of the "2"2"2Rn exhalation flux densities normalised to the "2"2"6Ra activity concentrations of the substrate. Dry season "2"2"2Rn exhalation was generally higher for the mixed substrate, due to the larger fraction of fines. Seasonality established within the first year of landform construction on the mixed substrate, due to the higher water holding capacity of the lateritic material. In contrast, waste rock only shows no seasonality until years four and five after construction, when average normalised dry season "2"2"2Rn exhalation flux densities from waste rock increase to values (0.47 ± 0.06 mBq m"−"2 s"−"1 per Bq kg"−"1) similar to the mixed substrate (0.64 ± 0.08 mBq m"−"2 s"−"1 per Bq kg"−"1), likely due to an increase in fines from rapid weathering of the schistose waste rock. Volumetric water content has been used to parametrize relative "2"2"2Rn exhalation and we determined that wet season "2"2"2Rn exhalation is about 40% of the dry season exhalation. - Highlights: • We determined "2"2"2Rn exhalation flux densities normalised to "2"2"6Ra activity concentrations (R_E_-_R) for two substrates. • R_E_-_R was lower for waste rock only compared to waste rock blended with 30% fine grained lateritic material. • Seasonality in waste rock "2"2"2Rn exhalation flux densities established 4 years after construction. • Wet season R_E_-_R was about 40% of the dry season R_E_-_R.

  2. Understanding the Steric Height Long Term Variability at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) Site with a Neutral Density Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncalves Neto, A.; Johnson, R. J.; Bates, N. R.

    2016-02-01

    Rising sea level is one of the main concerns for human life in a scenario with global atmosphere and ocean warming, which is of particular concern for oceanic islands. Bermuda, located in the center of the Sargasso Sea, provides an ideal location to investigate sea level rise since it has a long term tide gauge (1933-present) and is in close proximity to deep ocean time-series sites, namely, Hydrostation `S' (1954-present) and the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study site (1988-present). In this study, we use the monthly CTD deep casts at BATS to compute the contribution of steric height (SH) to the local sea surface height (SSH) for the past 24 years. To determine the relative contribution from the various water masses we first define 8 layers (Surface Layer, Upper Thermocline, Subtropical Mode-Water, Lower Thermocline, Antarctic Intermediate Water, Labrador Sea Water, Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water, Denmark Strait Overflow Water) based on neutral density criteria for which SH is computed. Additionally, we calculate the thermosteric and halosteric components for each of the defined neutral density layers. Surprisingly, the results show that, despite a 3.3mm/yr sea level rise observed at the Bermuda tide gauge, the steric contribution to the SSH at BATS has decreased at a rate of -1.1mm/yr during the same period. The thermal component is found to account for the negative trend in the steric height (-4.4mm/yr), whereas the halosteric component (3.3mm/yr) partially compensates the thermal signal and can be explained by an overall cooling and freshening at the BATS site. Although the surface layer and the upper thermocline waters are warming, all the subtropical and polar water masses, which represent most of the local water column, are cooling and therefore drive the overall SH contribution to the local SSH. Hence, it suggests that the mass contribution to the local SSH plays an important role in the sea level rise, for which we investigate with GRACE data.

  3. Long term complications of diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long-term complications of diabetes To use the sharing features on this page, ... other tests. All these may help you keep complications of diabetes away. You will need to check your blood ...

  4. Long-term follow-up on affinity maturation and memory B-cell generation in patients with common variable immunodeficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballegaard, Vibe Cecilie Diederich; Permin, H; Katzenstein, T L

    2013-01-01

    Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) comprises a heterogeneous group of primary immunodeficiency disorders. Immunophenotyping of memory B cells at the time of diagnosis is increasingly used for the classification of patients into subgroups with different clinical prognoses. The EUROclass...

  5. ReOBS: a new approach to synthesize long-term multi-variable dataset and application to the SIRTA supersite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiriaco, Marjolaine; Dupont, Jean-Charles; Bastin, Sophie; Badosa, Jordi; Lopez, Julio; Haeffelin, Martial; Chepfer, Helene; Guzman, Rodrigo

    2018-05-01

    A scientific approach is presented to aggregate and harmonize a set of 60 geophysical variables at hourly timescale over a decade, and to allow multiannual and multi-variable studies combining atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, radiation, clouds and aerosols from ground-based observations. Many datasets from ground-based observations are currently in use worldwide. They are very valuable because they contain complete and precise information due to their spatio-temporal co-localization over more than a decade. These datasets, in particular the synergy between different type of observations, are under-used because of their complexity and diversity due to calibration, quality control, treatment, format, temporal averaging, metadata, etc. Two main results are presented in this article: (1) a set of methods available for the community to robustly and reliably process ground-based data at an hourly timescale over a decade is described and (2) a single netCDF file is provided based on the SIRTA supersite observations. This file contains approximately 60 geophysical variables (atmospheric and in ground) hourly averaged over a decade for the longest variables. The netCDF file is available and easy to use for the community. In this article, observations are re-analyzed. The prefix re refers to six main steps: calibration, quality control, treatment, hourly averaging, homogenization of the formats and associated metadata, as well as expertise on more than a decade of observations. In contrast, previous studies (i) took only some of these six steps into account for each variable, (ii) did not aggregate all variables together in a single file and (iii) did not offer an hourly resolution for about 60 variables over a decade (for the longest variables). The approach described in this article can be applied to different supersites and to additional variables. The main implication of this work is that complex atmospheric observations are made readily available for scientists

  6. Parental divorce during early adolescence in Caucasian families: the role of family process variables in predicting the long-term consequences for early adult psychosocial adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, P; Forehand, R; Armistead, L; Tannenbaum, L

    1998-04-01

    The relationship between parental divorce occurring during adolescence and young adult psychosocial adjustment was examined, as was the role of family process variables in clarifying this relationship. Participants were young Caucasian adults from divorced (n = 119) and married (n = 123) families. Assessments were conducted during adolescence and 6 years later during early adulthood. Young adults from married families reported more secure romantic attachments than those from divorced families; however, differences were not evident in other domains of psychosocial adjustment after demographic variables were controlled. Three family process variables (parent-adolescent relationship, interparental conflict, and maternal depressive symptoms) were examined as potential mediators and moderators of the association between parental divorce and young adult adjustment. No evidence supporting mediation or moderation was found; however, the parent-adolescent and parent-young adult relationships, particularly when the identified parent was the father, emerged as significant predictors of young adult psychosocial adjustment.

  7. Structured education using Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (DAFNE) reduces long-term HbA1c and HbA1c variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G S; Chen, J Y; Hopkinson, H; Sainsbury, C A R; Jones, G C

    2018-06-01

    Previous evidence has demonstrated that participation in the Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (DAFNE) education programme can reduce HbA 1c and severe hypoglycaemia in people with Type 1 diabetes. In a number of studies, increased HbA 1c variability has been associated with higher diabetic morbidity and mortality. No studies have examined the impact of structured education on HbA 1c variability in Type 1 diabetes. People with Type 1 diabetes who had attended DAFNE were identified for inclusion from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes dataset. HbA 1c median and variability, expressed as coefficient of variation (CV) before and after DAFNE was calculated. Some 1061 individuals participated in DAFNE education and 687 met the inclusion criteria. A significant median reduction in HbA 1c [-3.5 mmol/mol (-0.3%)] was seen at 12 months with a significant reduction [-1.5 mmol/mol (-0.1%)] still seen at 60 months of follow-up. HbA 1c variability as measured by CV was significantly lower during the post-DAFNE period: 0.08 (IQR 0.05-0.12) reduced to 0.07 (IQR 0.05-0.10); P = 0.002. The data confirm that DAFNE participation improves glycaemic control in Type 1 diabetes with benefits being sustained for 5 years. This study is the first to demonstrate reduced HbA 1c variability after completion of structured education. This is new evidence of the beneficial impact of DAFNE on glycaemic profile. © 2018 Diabetes UK.

  8. A Promising Tool to Assess Long Term Public Health Effects of Natural Disasters: Combining Routine Health Survey Data and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Stunting after the 2001 Earthquake in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rydberg, Henny; Marrone, Gaetano; Strömdahl, Susanne; von Schreeb, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Research on long-term health effects of earthquakes is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by disasters. To date, progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of tools to accurately measure these effects. Here, we explored whether long-term public health effects of earthquakes can be assessed using a combination of readily available data sources on public health and geographic distribution of seismic activity. We used childhood stunting as a proxy for public health effects. Data on stunting were attained from Demographic and Health Surveys. Earthquake data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey's ShakeMaps, geographic information system-based maps that divide earthquake affected areas into different shaking intensity zones. We combined these two data sources to categorize the surveyed children into different earthquake exposure groups, based on how much their area of residence was affected by the earthquake. We assessed the feasibility of the approach using a real earthquake case--an 8.4 magnitude earthquake that hit southern Peru in 2001. Our results indicate that the combination of health survey data and disaster data may offer a readily accessible and accurate method for determining the long-term public health consequences of a natural disaster. Our work allowed us to make pre- and post-earthquake comparisons of stunting, an important indicator of the well-being of a society, as well as comparisons between populations with different levels of exposure to the earthquake. Furthermore, the detailed GIS based data provided a precise and objective definition of earthquake exposure. Our approach should be considered in future public health and disaster research exploring the long-term effects of earthquakes and potentially other natural disasters.

  9. A Promising Tool to Assess Long Term Public Health Effects of Natural Disasters: Combining Routine Health Survey Data and Geographic Information Systems to Assess Stunting after the 2001 Earthquake in Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henny Rydberg

    Full Text Available Research on long-term health effects of earthquakes is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries, which are disproportionately affected by disasters. To date, progress in this area has been hampered by the lack of tools to accurately measure these effects. Here, we explored whether long-term public health effects of earthquakes can be assessed using a combination of readily available data sources on public health and geographic distribution of seismic activity.We used childhood stunting as a proxy for public health effects. Data on stunting were attained from Demographic and Health Surveys. Earthquake data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey's ShakeMaps, geographic information system-based maps that divide earthquake affected areas into different shaking intensity zones. We combined these two data sources to categorize the surveyed children into different earthquake exposure groups, based on how much their area of residence was affected by the earthquake. We assessed the feasibility of the approach using a real earthquake case--an 8.4 magnitude earthquake that hit southern Peru in 2001.Our results indicate that the combination of health survey data and disaster data may offer a readily accessible and accurate method for determining the long-term public health consequences of a natural disaster. Our work allowed us to make pre- and post-earthquake comparisons of stunting, an important indicator of the well-being of a society, as well as comparisons between populations with different levels of exposure to the earthquake. Furthermore, the detailed GIS based data provided a precise and objective definition of earthquake exposure. Our approach should be considered in future public health and disaster research exploring the long-term effects of earthquakes and potentially other natural disasters.

  10. Drivers, mechanisms and long term variability of bottom seasonal hypoxia in the Black Sea north-western Shelf. Is there any recovery after eutrophication ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capet, Arthur; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Grégoire, Marilaure

    2013-04-01

    The Black Sea North-western shelf (NWS) is a shallow eutrophic area in which seasonal stratification of the water column isolates bottom waters from the atmosphere and prevents ventilation to compensate for the large consumption of oxygen, due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments. A 3D coupled physical biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS at different temporal scales from seasonal to interannual (1981-2009) and to differentiate the driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication) of hypoxic conditions in bottom waters. Model skills are evaluated by comparison with 14500 in-situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean Database and the Black Sea Commission data. The choice of skill metrics and data subselections orientate the validation procedure towards specific aspects of the oxygen dynamics, and prove the model's ability to resolve the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of oxygen concentration as well as the spatial location of the oxygen depleted waters and the specific threshold of hypoxia. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS, receiving large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniestr and Dniepr rivers, and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian Bay of Constanta. In order to explain the interannual variability of bottom hypoxia and to disentangle its drivers, a statistical model (multiple linear regression) is proposed using the long time series of model results as input variables. This statistical model gives a general relationships that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate related variables. The use of four predictors allows to reproduce 78% of hypoxia interannual variability: the annual nitrate discharge (N), the sea surface temperature in the month preceding stratification (T ), the

  11. Clinical outcomes of elite controllers, viremic controllers, and long-term nonprogressors in the US Department of Defense HIV natural history study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okulicz, Jason F; Marconi, Vincent C; Landrum, Michael L; Wegner, Scott; Weintrob, Amy; Ganesan, Anuradha; Hale, Braden; Crum-Cianflone, Nancy; Delmar, Judith; Barthel, Vincent; Quinnan, Gerald; Agan, Brian K; Dolan, Matthew J

    2009-12-01

    Durable control of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replication and lack of disease progression in the absence of antiretroviral therapy were studied in a military cohort of 4586 subjects. We examined groups of elite controllers (ie, subjects with plasma HIV RNA levels of <50 copies/mL; prevalence, 0.55% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.35%-0.80%]), viremic controllers (ie, subjects with plasma HIV RNA levels of 50-2000 copies/mL; prevalence, 3.34% [95% CI, 2.83%-3.91%]), and subjects with a lack of disease progression (ie, long-term nonprogressors [LTNPs]) through 7 years of follow-up (LTNP7s; prevalence, 3.32% [95% CI, 2.70%-4.01%]) or 10 years of follow-up (LTNP10s; prevalence, 2.04% [95% CI, 1.52%-2.68%]). For elite and viremic controllers, spontaneous virologic control was established early and was typically observed when the initial viral load measurement was obtained within 1 year of estimated seroconversion. Elite controllers had favorable time to development of AIDS (P=.048), a CD4 cell count of 350 cells/microL (P= .009), and more-stable CD4 cell trends, compared with viremic controllers. LTNPs defined by 10-year versus 7-year criteria had a longer survival time (P=.001), even after adjustment for differing periods of invulnerability (P= .042). Definitions of controllers and LTNPs describe distinct populations whose differing clinical outcomes improve with the stringency of criteria, underscoring the need for comparability between study populations.

  12. Impact of climatic variables on the dynamics of a lake ecosystem (Plusssee) assessed by cyclo-stationary MCCA of long-term observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guess, S. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik; Albrecht, D.; Krambeck, H.J. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Limnologie, Ploen (Germany); Navarra-Mueller, D.C. [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States); Mumm, H. [Konstanz Univ. (Germany)

    1998-12-31

    Cyclo-stationary Maximum Cross-Covariance Analysis (MCCA) is used to analyze the influence of meteorological variables (air temperature, wind speed, global radiation, humidity, and precipitation) on 13 biological and biogeochemical indicator variables of the Plusssee, a small lake in northern Germany. The main weather influence on the indicator variables was found to be winter temperature. From the covariance structure the following major signals were detected to be related to higher winter temperature: a more intense spring bloom, a higher zooplankton biomass during this bloom, a less intense loss of nutrients to the hypolimnion, a higher summer bloom together with changes in the nutrient concentrations and stronger oxygen consumption in autumn. The following four hypotheses for mechanisms to link the results within an ecophysiological context are discussed: (1) Higher winter air temperature is closely related to shorter ice coverage. This shorter ice coverage with better underwater light conditions in winter is assumed to be conducive to the development of phytoplankton in late winter and support the bloom in early spring. (2) Better growth of zooplankton during the spring bloom also intensifies the growth of organisms on higher trophic levels of the epilimnic food chain. (3) The better growth of organisms consuming zooplankton would decrease the grazing pressure exerted on the phytoplankton community a nd allow for a higher summer bloom. Excretion and remineralization of nutritive elements could amplify this effect. (4) The overall increase of the summer bloom leads to a higher algal biomass in early autumn, which mainly consists of species with higher resistance to grazing by herbivores. The lysis and degradation of this increased biomass should intensify the detritus fraction of the food chain and cause a higher consumption of oxygen. (orig.) [Deutsch] Mit Hilfe von zyklo-stationaerer Maximum-Kreuz-Kovarianz-Analyse (MCCA) wird der Einfluss von

  13. Drivers, mechanisms and long-term variability of seasonal hypoxia on the Black Sea northwestern shelf - is there any recovery after eutrophication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capet, A.; Beckers, J.-M.; Grégoire, M.

    2013-06-01

    The Black Sea northwestern shelf (NWS) is a shallow eutrophic area in which the seasonal stratification of the water column isolates the bottom waters from the atmosphere. This prevents ventilation from counterbalancing the large consumption of oxygen due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments, and sets the stage for the development of seasonal hypoxia. A three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical-biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS, first at seasonal and then at interannual scales (1981-2009), and to differentiate its driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication). Model skills are evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the model results to 14 123 in situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean and the Black Sea Commission databases, using different error metrics. This validation exercise shows that the model is able to represent the seasonal and interannual variability of the oxygen concentration and of the occurrence of hypoxia, as well as the spatial distribution of oxygen-depleted waters. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS - which receives large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniester and Dnieper rivers - and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian bay of Constanta. An index H which merges the aspects of the spatial and temporal extension of the hypoxic event is proposed to quantify, for each year, the intensity of hypoxia as an environmental stressor. In order to explain the interannual variability of H and to disentangle its drivers, we analyze the long time series of model results by means of a stepwise multiple linear regression. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate-related variables. A total of 82% of the interannual variability

  14. Drivers, mechanisms and long-term variability of seasonal hypoxia on the Black Sea northwestern shelf – is there any recovery after eutrophication?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Capet

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea northwestern shelf (NWS is a shallow eutrophic area in which the seasonal stratification of the water column isolates the bottom waters from the atmosphere. This prevents ventilation from counterbalancing the large consumption of oxygen due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments, and sets the stage for the development of seasonal hypoxia. A three-dimensional (3-D coupled physical–biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS, first at seasonal and then at interannual scales (1981–2009, and to differentiate its driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication. Model skills are evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the model results to 14 123 in situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean and the Black Sea Commission databases, using different error metrics. This validation exercise shows that the model is able to represent the seasonal and interannual variability of the oxygen concentration and of the occurrence of hypoxia, as well as the spatial distribution of oxygen-depleted waters. During the period 1981–2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS – which receives large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniester and Dnieper rivers – and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian bay of Constanta. An index H which merges the aspects of the spatial and temporal extension of the hypoxic event is proposed to quantify, for each year, the intensity of hypoxia as an environmental stressor. In order to explain the interannual variability of H and to disentangle its drivers, we analyze the long time series of model results by means of a stepwise multiple linear regression. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate-related variables. A total of 82% of the

  15. Measurements of soil, surface water, and groundwater CO2 concentration variability within Earth's critical zone: low-cost, long-term, high-temporal resolution monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackstock, J. M.; Covington, M. D.; Williams, S. G. W.; Myre, J. M.; Rodriguez, J.

    2017-12-01

    Variability in CO2 fluxes within Earth's Critical zone occurs over a wide range of timescales. Resolving this and its drivers requires high-temporal resolution monitoring of CO2 both in the soil and aquatic environments. High-cost (> 1,000 USD) gas analyzers and data loggers present cost-barriers for investigations with limited budgets, particularly if high spatial resolution is desired. To overcome high-costs, we developed an Arduino based CO2 measuring platform (i.e. gas analyzer and data logger). The platform was deployed at multiple sites within the Critical Zone overlying the Springfield Plateau aquifer in Northwest Arkansas, USA. The CO2 gas analyzer used in this study was a relatively low-cost SenseAir K30. The analyzer's optical housing was covered by a PTFE semi-permeable membrane allowing for gas exchange between the analyzer and environment. Total approximate cost of the monitoring platform was 200 USD (2% detection limit) to 300 USD (10% detection limit) depending on the K30 model used. For testing purposes, we deployed the Arduino based platform alongside a commercial monitoring platform. CO2 concentration time series were nearly identical. Notably, CO2 cycles at the surface water site, which operated from January to April 2017, displayed a systematic increase in daily CO2 amplitude. Preliminary interpretation suggests key observation of seasonally increasing stream metabolic function. Other interpretations of observed cyclical and event-based behavior are out of the scope of the study; however, the presented method describes an accurate near-hourly characterization of CO2 variability. The new platform has been shown to be operational for several months, and we infer reliable operation for much longer deployments (> 1 year) given adequate environmental protection and power supply. Considering cost-savings, this platform is an attractive option for continuous, accurate, low-power, and low-cost CO2 monitoring for remote locations, globally.

  16. Tropospheric ozone seasonal and long-term variability as seen by lidar and surface measurements at the JPL-Table Mountain Facility, California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Granados-Muñoz

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A combined surface and tropospheric ozone climatology and interannual variability study was performed for the first time using co-located ozone photometer measurements (2013–2015 and tropospheric ozone differential absorption lidar measurements (2000–2015 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Table Mountain Facility (TMF; elev. 2285 m, in California. The surface time series were investigated both in terms of seasonal and diurnal variability. The observed surface ozone is typical of high-elevation remote sites, with small amplitude of the seasonal and diurnal cycles, and high ozone values, compared to neighboring lower altitude stations representative of urban boundary layer conditions. The ozone mixing ratio ranges from 45 ppbv in the winter morning hours to 65 ppbv in the spring and summer afternoon hours. At the time of the lidar measurements (early night, the seasonal cycle observed at the surface is similar to that observed by lidar between 3.5 and 9 km. Above 9 km, the local tropopause height variation with time and season impacts significantly the ozone lidar observations. The frequent tropopause folds found in the vicinity of TMF (27 % of the time, mostly in winter and spring produce a dual-peak vertical structure in ozone within the fold layer, characterized by higher-than-average values in the bottom half of the fold (12–14 km, and lower-than-averaged values in the top half of the fold (14–18 km. This structure is consistent with the expected origin of the air parcels within the fold, i.e., mid-latitude stratospheric air folding down below the upper tropospheric sub-tropical air. The influence of the tropopause folds extends down to 5 km, increasing the ozone content in the troposphere. No significant signature of interannual variability could be observed on the 2000–2015 de-seasonalized lidar time series, with only a statistically non-significant positive anomaly during the years 2003–2007. Our trend analysis

  17. Optimal long-term contracting with learning

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zhiguo; Wei, Bin; Yu, Jianfeng; Gao, Feng

    2016-01-01

    We introduce uncertainty into Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987) to study optimal long-term contracting with learning. In a dynamic relationship, the agent's shirking not only reduces current performance but also increases the agent's information rent due to the persistent belief manipulation effect. We characterize the optimal contract using the dynamic programming technique in which information rent is the unique state variable. In the optimal contract, the optimal effort is front-loaded and decr...

  18. Long-term variability of sleep bruxism and psychological stress in patients with jaw-muscle pain: Report of two longitudinal clinical cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzalev, K; Visscher, C M; Koutris, M; Lobbezoo, F

    2018-02-01

    Sleep bruxism (SB) and psychological stress are commonly considered as contributing factors in the aetiology of temporomandibular disorder (TMD) pain. However, the lack of longitudinal studies and fluctuating nature of SB, psychological stress and TMD pain have led to contradictory results regarding the association between the possible aetiological factors and TMD pain. In the present study we investigated the contribution of SB and psychological stress to TMD pain in a longitudinal study of 2 clinical TMD pain cases during a 6-week study protocol. Two female volunteers with clinically diagnosed myalgia based on the Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (DC/TMD) participated in the study. Questionnaires were used to record jaw-muscle pain and psychological stress experience, and an ambulatory polysomnography technique was used to record SB intensity. Visual analysis of the data revealed that the intensity of TMD pain was not hardwired, neither with psychological stress experience nor with increased SB activity. Within the limitations of single-patient clinical cases design, our study suggested that the presence of TMD pain cannot be explained by a simple linear model which takes psychological stress or SB into account. It also seems that psychological stress was a more important predictor factor for TMD pain than SB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. RXTE Monitoring of the Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 1E 1048.1-5937: Long-Term Variability and the 2007 March Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dib, Rim; Kaspi, Victoria M.; Gavriil, Fotis P.

    2009-01-01

    After three years of no unusual activity, Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 1E 1048.1-5937 reactivated in 2007 March. We report on the detection of a large glitch (deltav/v = 1.63(2) x 10(exp -5)) on 2007 March 26 (MJD 54185.9), contemporaneous with the onset of a pulsed-flux flare, the third flare observed from this source in 10 years of monitoring with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. Additionally, we report on a detailed study of the evolution of the timing properties, the pulsed flux, and the pulse profile of this source as measured by RXTE from 1996 July to 2008 January. In our timing study, we attempted phase coherent timing of all available observations. We show that in 2001, a timing anomaly of uncertain nature occurred near the rise of the first pulsed flux flare; we show that a likely glitch (deltav/v = 2.91(9) x 10(exp -6)) occurred in 2002, near the rise of the second flare, and we present a detailed description of the variations in the spin-down. In our pulsed flux study, we compare the decays of the three flares and discuss changes in the hardness ratio. In our pulse profile study, we show that the profile exhibited large variations near the peak of the first two flares, and several small short-term profile variations during the most recent flare. Finally, we report on the discovery of a small burst 27 days after the peak of the last flare, the fourth burst discovered from this source. We discuss the relationships between the observed properties in the framework of the magnetar model.

  20. EUROGAS long-term outlook on natural gas demand and supply up to 2020. The approach of the West European gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roze, J.

    1997-01-01

    Eurogas is the European Union of the Natural Gas Industry. Since 1994, it has been publishing a booklet presenting the main figures describing natural gas industry in Europe with a view to supporting its positions in the debates taking place with European and international institutions. This paper is presenting the results of the Eurogas outlook updated in 1996, it is based on input from the national members of Eurogas. (au)

  1. A national strategy for a long-term monitoring of permafrost and periglacial processes and their relationship to natural hazard prevention in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas; Bartsch, Annett; Gitschthaler, Christoph; Reisenhofer, Stefan; Weyss, Gernot; Riedl, Claudia; Avian, Michael

    2016-04-01

    About 2.5% (~2000 km²) of the national territory of Austria is influenced by permafrost conditions. A slightly smaller area of Austria is additionally affected by deep seasonal frost which is, however, similarly exposed to intensive physical weathering and related geomorphic processes. Currently, 23 skiing resorts, 31 water reservoirs and 42 mountain huts are either directly or indirectly influenced by permafrost and associated processes in Austria as determined from regional permafrost models. Ground thermal changes most likely affect the ground stability and infrastructure in those areas. Therefore, changes in the distribution and characteristics of permafrost and seasonal frost are of high economic and ecological importance. A range of Austrian institutions are interested in systematic permafrost monitoring (several universities, geological surveys, the Austrian torrent and avalanche control agency or several different alpine clubs). However, to date no coordinated monitoring network has been established on a national scale and a strategy for long-term permafrost/periglacial observation did not exist so far. Such a national strategy has been developed in 2015 within the permAT project funded through the StartClim2014-program. During permAT an extensive literature review and data search as well as a workshop with 40 participants (scientists, stakeholder and policy maker) were accomplished. The workshop allowed the integration of national as well as international colleagues into the strategy development. Results of permAT clearly demonstrate that the number of present permafrost/periglacial monitoring sites is far too little in Austria. Only few alpine areas of Austria are well represented by the existing monitoring activities but large areas lack such instrumentations. Furthermore, permafrost boreholes exist at only three sites in central Austria (all contribution to the GTN-P network) and there is a lack of knowledge about thermal conditions and recent changes

  2. A long-term comparison of carbon sequestration rates in impounded and naturally tidal freshwater marshes along the lower Waccamaw River, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drexler, Judith Z.; Krauss, Ken W.; Sasser, M. Craig; Fuller, Christopher C.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.; Powell, Amber; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Orlando, James L.

    2013-01-01

    Carbon storage was compared between impounded and naturally tidal freshwater marshes along the Lower Waccamaw River in South Carolina, USA. Soil cores were collected in (1) naturally tidal, (2) moist soil (impounded, seasonally drained since ~1970), and (3) deeply flooded “treatments” (impounded, flooded to ~90 cm since ~2002). Cores were analyzed for % organic carbon, % total carbon, bulk density, and 210Pb and 137Cs for dating purposes. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 25 to 200 g C m−2 yr−1 (moist soil), 80–435 g C m−2 yr−1 (naturally tidal), and 100–250 g C m−2 yr−1 (deeply flooded). The moist soil and naturally tidal treatments were compared over a period of 40 years. The naturally tidal treatment had significantly higher carbon storage (mean = 219 g C m−2 yr−1 vs. mean = 91 g C m−2 yr−1) and four times the vertical accretion rate (mean = 0.84 cm yr−1 vs. mean = 0.21 cm yr−1) of the moist soil treatment. The results strongly suggest that the long drainage period in moist soil management limits carbon storage over time. Managers across the National Wildlife Refuge system have an opportunity to increase carbon storage by minimizing drainage in impoundments as much as practicable.

  3. Long-term hydrology and water quality of a drained pine plantation in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.M. Amatya; R.W. Skaggs

    2011-01-01

    Long-term data provide a basis for understanding natural variability, reducing uncertainty in model inputs and parameter estimation, and developing new hypotheses. This article evaluates 21 years (1988-2008) of hydrologic data and 17 years (1988-2005) of water quality data from a drained pine plantation in eastern North Carolina. The plantation age was 14 years at the...

  4. Nuclear Energy, Long Term Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, V.

    2006-01-01

    There are serious warnings about depletion of oil and gas and even more serious warnings about dangers of climate change caused by emission of carbon dioxide. Should developed countries be called to replace CO2 emitting energy sources as soon as possible, and the time available may not be longer then few decades, can nuclear energy answer the call and what are the requirements? Assuming optimistic contribution of renewable energy sources, can nuclear energy expand to several times present level in order to replace large part of fossil fuels use? Paper considers intermediate and long-term requirements. Future of nuclear power depends on satisfactory answers on several questions. First group of questions are those important for near and intermediate future. They deal with economics and safety of nuclear power stations in the first place. On the same time scale a generally accepted concept for radioactive waste disposal is also required. All these issues are in the focus of present research and development. Safer and more economical reactors are targets of international efforts in Generation IV and INPRO projects, but aiming further ahead these innovative projects are also addressing issues such as waste reduction and proliferation resistance. However, even assuming successful technical development of these projects, and there is no reason to doubt it, long term and large-scale nuclear power use is thereby not yet secured. If nuclear power is to play an essential role in the long-term future energy production and in reduction of CO2 emission, than several additional questions must be replied. These questions will deal with long-term nuclear fuel sufficiency, with necessary contribution of nuclear power in sectors of transport and industrial processes and with nuclear proliferation safety. This last issue is more political then technical, thus sometimes neglected by nuclear engineers, yet it will have essential role for the long-term prospects of nuclear power. The

  5. Long-Term Mental Health among Low-Income, Minority Women Following Exposure to Multiple Natural Disasters in Early and Late Adolescence Compared to Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Marni B.; Harville, Emily W.

    2015-01-01

    Background: High impact experiences following a natural disaster have been shown to influence later psychopathology. Individual-level factors such as age may also contribute to a disaster's impact on mental health, though it is unclear whether young age confers a protective effect or represents a period of increased risk as compared to adulthood.…

  6. Onion Park Research Natural Area: Botanical and ecological resources inventory, mapping and analysis with recommendations towards the development of a long-term monitoring and research program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle F. Layser

    1992-01-01

    Onion Park is a floristically rich naturally occurring mountain meadow and wetland complex which is surrounded by subalpine forest. The grass- and wetlands comprising the Park contribute biological diversity to an otherwise predominantly lodgepole pine-forested, subalpine setting. Onion Park is located at 7400' elevation in the Little Belt Mountains, five miles...

  7. Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.; Van Arkel, W.G.; Boots, M.G.

    2004-01-01

    To our knowledge, so far amazingly little research work has been undertaken to construct meaningful indicators of long-run energy supply security for a particular nation or region. Currently, in addressing energy supply security, policy makers tend to emphasise short-term supply disruptions. In contrast, this pre-study accords with the broader Sustainability Outlook in considering the long-term perspective. This report starts with taking stock, in a concise way, of the official EU energy outlook and issues related to the opportunities to administer changes in the energy mix at the level of major energy use categories. Then a brief survey of relevant literature is made on long-term strategies to ensure survival of systems - be it biological, social, etc. - in an environment largely characterised by high uncertainty and a lot of unchartered territory. We found the work of Andrew Stirling very inspiring in this context. Based on his work and considering the limitations of the present research activity, we retained the Shannon index as the best 'simple' indicator of diversity. In the core of the report, the Shannon index is elaborated into four indicators of long-term energy supply security. Stepwise, additional aspects of long-term energy supply security are introduced. These aspects are: Diversification of energy sources in energy supply; Diversification of imports with respect to imported energy sources; Long-term political stability in regions of origin; The resource base in regions of origin, including the home region/country itself. After small adjustments to allow for data availability, these indicators were applied to the reference year 2030 of four long-term scenarios with data of base year 1995 and projections for underlying variables provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). Preliminary interpretation of the results suggests the usefulness of the indicators presented in this report. A second activity undertaken in this report was

  8. Analysing long term discursive processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horsbøl, Anders

    which extend beyond the single interaction, for instance negotiations or planning processes, seems to have played a less important role, with studies such as Iedema 2001 and Wodak 2000 as exceptions. These long term processes, however, are central to the constitution and workings of organizations......What do timescales - the notion that processes take place or can be viewed within a shorter or longer temporal range (Lemke 2005) - mean for the analysis of discourse? What are the methodological consequences of analyzing discourse at different timescales? It may be argued that discourse analysis...... in general has favored either the analysis of short term processes such as interviews, discussions, and lessons, or the analysis of non-processual entities such as (multimodal) texts, arguments, discursive repertoires, and discourses (in a Foucaultian sense). In contrast, analysis of long term processes...

  9. Alongshore variability of nourished and natural beaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Schipper, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Alongshore variability in topography (i.e. height differences in bed level along the coast) can exist on both natural and nourished beaches. An important question prior to implementation of a nourishment project is how alongshore variability is going to evolve and, related to this variability, the

  10. Natural analogue of nuclear waste glass in a geologic formation. Study on long-term behavior of volcanic glass shards collected from drill cores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Hideki; Yui, Mikazu; Futakuchi, Katsuhito; Hiroki, Minenari

    2005-01-01

    Alteration of the volcanic glass in geologic formation was investigated as one of the natural analog for a glass of high-level nuclear waste in geological disposal. We analyzed some volcanic glasses included in the core sample of the bore hole and estimated the history of its burying and observed its alteration using the polarizing microscope. Some information at the piling up temperature and the piling up time was collected. (author)

  11. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  12. Long term radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavie, J.M.

    1984-01-01

    In France, waste management, a sensitive issue in term of public opinion, is developing quickly, and due to twenty years of experience, is now reaching maturity. With the launching of the French nuclear programme, the use of radioactive sources in radiotherapy and industry, waste management has become an industrial activity. Waste management is an integrated system dealing with the wastes from their production to the long term disposal, including their identification, sortage, treatment, packaging, collection and transport. This system aims at guaranteing the protection of present and future populations with an available technology. In regard to their long term management, and the design of disposals, radioactive wastes are divided in three categories. This classification takes into account the different radioisotopes contained, their half life and their total activity. Presently short-lived wastes are stored in the shallowland disposal of the ''Centre de la Manche''. Set up within the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the National Agency for waste management (ANDRA) is responsible within the framework of legislative and regulatory provisions for long term waste management in France [fr

  13. Influenza in long-term care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansbury, Louise E; Brown, Caroline S; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S

    2017-09-01

    Long-term care facility environments and the vulnerability of their residents provide a setting conducive to the rapid spread of influenza virus and other respiratory pathogens. Infections may be introduced by staff, visitors or new or transferred residents, and outbreaks of influenza in such settings can have devastating consequences for individuals, as well as placing extra strain on health services. As the population ages over the coming decades, increased provision of such facilities seems likely. The need for robust infection prevention and control practices will therefore remain of paramount importance if the impact of outbreaks is to be minimised. In this review, we discuss the nature of the problem of influenza in long-term care facilities, and approaches to preventive and control measures, including vaccination of residents and staff, and the use of antiviral drugs for treatment and prophylaxis, based on currently available evidence. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Assessing Tourists’ Preferences for Recreational Trips in National and Natural Parks as a Premise for Long-Term Sustainable Management Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana E. Dumitras

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable tourism management plans rely on relevant and consistent information about factors that can influence the decision to visit a protected area. This paper uses the choice experiment method to investigate tourists’ preferences with regard to recreational trip characteristics in national and natural parks in Romania. An on-site survey questionnaire was administered to visitors. The multinomial logit model was employed to investigate the preference orderings of the identified groups of recreational users. Overall, results indicate that tourists gain benefits after visiting the parks. Main preference differences were found for information sources and location of campsites. Visitors who stated that the park was the main trip destination were willing to have access to more information sources, the marks on trails being insufficient. Camping is preferred only in organized places, expressing the concern for environmental protection. The results of this study have management implications, highlighting the importance of assessing tourists’ preferences as a foundation for developing sustainable tourism strategies.

  15. Long-term runoff changes in regions of Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miklanek, Pavol; Pekarova; Pavla

    2004-01-01

    Mean annual runoff variability includes both natural and anthropogenic (climate change) impacts. Aim of the paper is to identify the long-term trends and the cyclic runoff components of selected Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000, and of the Danube river for the period 1840-2000. The variability is analysed by the long-term runoff trends of 27 Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000. The stations were included into the Slovak National Climate Program and they are supposed not to be influenced by anthropogenic activities except of possible climate change. Comparison of the monthly runoff series of the 27 rivers allowed us to draw 3 regions with different runoff trends on the territory of Slovakia (constant trend in Northern and Eastern Slovakia, slow decrease in Central Slovakia, and rapid decrease in Southern Slovakia; The identification of different cyclic components of the runoff series is included. The length of the series allows to identify the 22-year cycles as maximum. By means of the longer runoff series of the Danube river it is shown that the more dry periods occurred in the central Europe and Slovakia in mid 19 th century. The longer Danube series were used also to find the longer runoff cycles of about 31 and 46 years. The mean annual temperature in Europe was lower by 0.6 o C in mid 19 th century compared to 1990s. The temperature increase is put down to climate change impact. The driest period shown by Danube runoff series in mid 19 th century occurred before the start of the climate change. Therefore it is probable that the long-term runoff variability has its own dynamics as well. (Author)

  16. Long-Term Memory Performance in Adult ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skodzik, Timo; Holling, Heinz; Pedersen, Anya

    2017-02-01

    Memory problems are a frequently reported symptom in adult ADHD, and it is well-documented that adults with ADHD perform poorly on long-term memory tests. However, the cause of this effect is still controversial. The present meta-analysis examined underlying mechanisms that may lead to long-term memory impairments in adult ADHD. We performed separate meta-analyses of measures of memory acquisition and long-term memory using both verbal and visual memory tests. In addition, the influence of potential moderator variables was examined. Adults with ADHD performed significantly worse than controls on verbal but not on visual long-term memory and memory acquisition subtests. The long-term memory deficit was strongly statistically related to the memory acquisition deficit. In contrast, no retrieval problems were observable. Our results suggest that memory deficits in adult ADHD reflect a learning deficit induced at the stage of encoding. Implications for clinical and research settings are presented.

  17. Long-term stabilization of uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voorhees, L.D.; Sale, M.J.; Webb, J.W.; Mulholland, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    The primary hazard associated with uranium mill tailings is exposure to a radioactive gas, radon-222, the concentration of which has been correlated with the occurrence of lung cancer. Previous studies on radon attenuation conclude that the placement of earthen cover materials over the tailings is the most effective technique for reducing radioactive emissions and dispersal of tailings. The success of such a plan, however, is dependent on ensuring the long-term integrity of these cover materials. Soil erosion from water and wind is the major natural cause of destabilizing earthen cover materials. Field data related to the control of soil loss are limited and only indirectly apply to the problem of isolation of uranium mill tailings over very long time periods (up to 80,000 a). However, sufficient information is available to determine benefits that will result from changes in specific design variables and to evaluate the need for different design strategies among potential disposal sites. The three major options available for stabilization of uranium mill tailings are (1) rock cover, (2) soil and revegetation, or (3) a combination of both on different portions of the tailings cover. The optimal choice among these alternatives depends on site-specific characteristics such as climate and local geomorphology and soils, and on design variables such as embankment heights and slopes, modification of upstream drainage, and revegetation practices. Generally, geomorphic evidence suggests that use of soil and vegetation alone will not be adequate to reduce erosion on slopes greater than about 5 to 9%. For these steeper slopes, the use of rock talus or riprap will be necessary to maximize the probability of long-term stability. The use of vegetation to control erosion on the flatter portions of the site may be practicable in regions of the USA with sufficient rainfall and suitable soil types, but revegetation practices must be carefully evaluated to ensure that long-term

  18. Navigating Long-Term Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Holt MD

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Americans over age 65 constitute a larger percentage of the population each year: from 14% in 2010 (40 million elderly to possibly 20% in 2030 (70 million elderly. In 2015, an estimated 66 million people provided care to the ill, disabled, and elderly in the United States. In 2000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, 15 million Americans used some form of long-term care: adult day care, home health, nursing home, or hospice. In all, 13% of people over 85 years old, compared with 1% of those ages 65 to 74, live in nursing homes in the United States. Transitions of care, among these various levels of care, are common: Nursing home to hospital transfer, one of the best-studied transitions, occurs in more than 25% of nursing home residents per year. This article follows one patient through several levels of care.

  19. Long term study of mechanical

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed M. Diab

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, properties of limestone cement concrete containing different replacement levels of limestone powder were examined. It includes 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25% of limestone powder as a partial replacement of cement. Silica fume was added incorporated with limestone powder in some mixes to enhance the concrete properties. Compressive strength, splitting tensile strength and modulus of elasticity were determined. Also, durability of limestone cement concrete with different C3A contents was examined. The weight loss, length change and cube compressive strength loss were measured for concrete attacked by 5% sodium sulfate using an accelerated test up to 525 days age. The corrosion resistance was measured through accelerated corrosion test using first crack time, cracking width and steel reinforcement weight loss. Consequently, for short and long term, the use of limestone up to 10% had not a significant reduction in concrete properties. It is not recommended to use blended limestone cement in case of sulfate attack. The use of limestone cement containing up to 25% limestone has insignificant effect on corrosion resistance before cracking.

  20. Long-term competence restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Douglas R; DeYoung, Nathaniel J

    2014-01-01

    While the United States Supreme Court's Jackson v. Indiana decision and most state statutes mandate determinations of incompetent defendants' restoration probabilities, courts and forensic clinicians continue to lack empirical evidence to guide these determinations and do not yet have a consensus regarding whether and under what circumstances incompetent defendants are restorable. The evidence base concerning the restoration likelihood of those defendants who fail initial restoration efforts is even further diminished and has largely gone unstudied. In this study, we examined the disposition of a cohort of defendants who underwent long-term competence restoration efforts (greater than six months) and identified factors related to whether these defendants were able to attain restoration and adjudicative success. Approximately two-thirds (n = 52) of the 81 individuals undergoing extended restoration efforts were eventually deemed restored to competence. Lengths of hospitalization until successful restoration are presented with implications for the reasonable length of time that restoration efforts should persist. Older individuals were less likely to be restored and successfully adjudicated, and individuals with more severe charges and greater factual legal understanding were more likely to be restored and adjudicated. The significance of these findings for courts and forensic clinicians is discussed.

  1. Uranium ... long-term confidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1983-01-01

    Half way through 1983 the outlook for the world's uranium producers was far from bright if one takes a short term view. The readily accessible facts present a gloomy picture. The spot prices of uranium over the past few years decreased from a high of $42-$43/lb to a low of $17 in 1982. It now hovers between $23 and $24. the contract prices negotiated between producers and consumers are not so accessible but they do not reflect the spot price. The reasons why contractual uranium prices do not follow the usual dictates of supply and demand are related to the position in which uranium and associated power industries find themselves. There is public reaction with strong emotional overtones as well as much reduced expectations about the electric power needs of the world. Furthermore the supply of uranium is not guaranteed despite present over production. However the people in the industry, taking the medium- and long-term view, are not despondent

  2. Long-term corrosion studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gdowski, G.

    1998-01-01

    The scope of this activity is to assess the long-term corrosion properties of metallic materials under consideration for fabricating waste package containers. Three classes of metals are to be assessed: corrosion resistant, intermediate corrosion resistant, and corrosion allowance. Corrosion properties to be evaluated are general, pitting and crevice corrosion, stress-corrosion cracking, and galvanic corrosion. The performance of these materials will be investigated under conditions that are considered relevant to the potential emplacement site. Testing in four aqueous solutions, and vapor phases above them, and at two temperatures are planned for this activity. (The environmental conditions, test metals, and matrix are described in detail in Section 3.0.) The purpose and objective of this activity is to obtain the kinetic and mechanistic information on degradation of metallic alloys currently being considered for waste package containers. This information will be used to provide assistance to (1) waste package design (metal barrier selection) (E-20-90 to E-20-92), (2) waste package performance assessment activities (SIP-PA-2), (3) model development (E-20-75 to E-20-89). and (4) repository license application

  3. Study of rhyolitic glasses alteration in contact with natural brines (Bolivia). Application to the study of the long-term behaviour of the R7T7 nuclear glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelouas, A.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to complement an experimental program on the R7T7 nuclear waste glass alteration in brines at 190 deg C in Germany by the analysis of the structure and the chemical composition of the alteration layers, and to study the alteration of rhyolitic glasses in natural brines from Bolivia as analogue for nuclear waste glasses disposed in salt formations. Alteration experiments with the R7T7 and basaltic glasses and obsidian in MgCl 2 -CaCl 2 -saturated brine at 190 deg. C were also conducted in order to study the influence of the glass composition on the nature of the secondary phases. The experiments with the R7T7 glass in three salt brines, saturated respectively in MgCl 2 , MgCl 2 -CaCl 2 and NaCl, showed that the solubilities of most radionuclides are controlled by the secondary phases. Nd, La, and Pr are trapped in powellite, Ce in cerianite, U in coffinite, and Sr is partially immobilized in barite. These phases are stable for more than one year. There is a good similarity between the secondary phases formed experimentally on volcanic glasses and the R7T7 glass altered in MgCl 2 -CaCl 2 -saturated brine. The abundance of Mg in solution permits the formation of similar magnesian clays on the glass samples independently of the nature of the initial glasses. These results support the use of volcanic glasses alteration patterns in Mg-rich solutions to understand the long-term behavior of nuclear waste glasses and to evaluate the stability of the secondary phases. The study of the sediments of Uyuni (Bolivia) showed that the corrosion rate of the rhyolitic glass in brines at 10 deg. C is 12 to 30 time lower than those of rhyolitic glasses altered in high dilute conditions. The low alteration rate of rhyolitic glasses in brines and the formation of secondary phases such as smectite, barite and cerianite (also formed during the experimental alteration of the R7T7 glass), permit us to expect the low alteration of nuclear waste glasses at long-term

  4. Influence of Ocean Acidification on a Natural Winter-to-Summer Plankton Succession: First Insights from a Long-Term Mesocosm Study Draw Attention to Periods of Low Nutrient Concentrations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lennart T Bach

    Full Text Available Every year, the oceans absorb about 30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2 leading to a re-equilibration of the marine carbonate system and decreasing seawater pH. Today, there is increasing awareness that these changes-summarized by the term ocean acidification (OA-could differentially affect the competitive ability of marine organisms, thereby provoking a restructuring of marine ecosystems and biogeochemical element cycles. In winter 2013, we deployed ten pelagic mesocosms in the Gullmar Fjord at the Swedish west coast in order to study the effect of OA on plankton ecology and biogeochemistry under close to natural conditions. Five of the ten mesocosms were left unperturbed and served as controls (~380 μatm pCO2, whereas the others were enriched with CO2-saturated water to simulate realistic end-of-the-century carbonate chemistry conditions (~760 μatm pCO2. We ran the experiment for 113 days which allowed us to study the influence of high CO2 on an entire winter-to-summer plankton succession and to investigate the potential of some plankton organisms for evolutionary adaptation to OA in their natural environment. This paper is the first in a PLOS collection and provides a detailed overview on the experimental design, important events, and the key complexities of such a "long-term mesocosm" approach. Furthermore, we analyzed whether simulated end-of-the-century carbonate chemistry conditions could lead to a significant restructuring of the plankton community in the course of the succession. At the level of detail analyzed in this overview paper we found that CO2-induced differences in plankton community composition were non-detectable during most of the succession except for a period where a phytoplankton bloom was fueled by remineralized nutrients. These results indicate: (1 Long-term studies with pelagic ecosystems are necessary to uncover OA-sensitive stages of succession. (2 Plankton communities fueled by regenerated nutrients may be

  5. Influence of Ocean Acidification on a Natural Winter-to-Summer Plankton Succession: First Insights from a Long-Term Mesocosm Study Draw Attention to Periods of Low Nutrient Concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucher, Jan; Boxhammer, Tim; Ludwig, Andrea; Achterberg, Eric P.; Algueró-Muñiz, María; Anderson, Leif G.; Bellworthy, Jessica; Büdenbender, Jan; Czerny, Jan; Ericson, Ylva; Esposito, Mario; Fischer, Matthias; Haunost, Mathias; Hellemann, Dana; Horn, Henriette G.; Hornick, Thomas; Meyer, Jana; Sswat, Michael; Zark, Maren; Riebesell, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    Every year, the oceans absorb about 30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) leading to a re-equilibration of the marine carbonate system and decreasing seawater pH. Today, there is increasing awareness that these changes–summarized by the term ocean acidification (OA)–could differentially affect the competitive ability of marine organisms, thereby provoking a restructuring of marine ecosystems and biogeochemical element cycles. In winter 2013, we deployed ten pelagic mesocosms in the Gullmar Fjord at the Swedish west coast in order to study the effect of OA on plankton ecology and biogeochemistry under close to natural conditions. Five of the ten mesocosms were left unperturbed and served as controls (~380 μatm pCO2), whereas the others were enriched with CO2-saturated water to simulate realistic end-of-the-century carbonate chemistry conditions (~760 μatm pCO2). We ran the experiment for 113 days which allowed us to study the influence of high CO2 on an entire winter-to-summer plankton succession and to investigate the potential of some plankton organisms for evolutionary adaptation to OA in their natural environment. This paper is the first in a PLOS collection and provides a detailed overview on the experimental design, important events, and the key complexities of such a “long-term mesocosm” approach. Furthermore, we analyzed whether simulated end-of-the-century carbonate chemistry conditions could lead to a significant restructuring of the plankton community in the course of the succession. At the level of detail analyzed in this overview paper we found that CO2-induced differences in plankton community composition were non-detectable during most of the succession except for a period where a phytoplankton bloom was fueled by remineralized nutrients. These results indicate: (1) Long-term studies with pelagic ecosystems are necessary to uncover OA-sensitive stages of succession. (2) Plankton communities fueled by regenerated nutrients may be more

  6. Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

  7. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    estuaries below by removing all incoming freshwater. At Toolik Lake, long-term experiments of removing top predators from the good web of lakes showed dramatic alterations of lake populations of small fish and zooplankton. In New Mexico, LTER research on small mammal populations is successfully predicting rodent increases and the potential for increased zoonotic diseases such as Hantavirus and bubonic plague. This ability to forecast based on El Nino prediction is being used to increase scientific awareness and public health awareness through media based communication with the public. In Oregon, the Andrews Forest LTER program has had long, strong links with natural resource policy and management. Basic understanding of forest-stream interactions, characteristics of old-growth forests, roles of woody debris in temperate forest ecosystems, invertebrate biodiversity and ecosystem function have been incorporated in management guidelines, plans and regulations for public and private lands throughout the Pacific Northwest. Other examples of the values of long-term research and monitoring will be presented.

  8. Financing long term liabilities (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    charges and fees levied from the waste producers. Altogether, financial resources for decommissioning are needed for the following steps: the post-operational phase in which the facility is prepared for dismantling after its final shut-down, dismantling of the radioactive part of the facility, management, storage and disposal of the radioactive waste, restoration of the site, licensing and regulatory supervision of all these steps. Additional means are necessary for the management, storage and disposal of the spent fuel. The way in which the availability of financial resources is secured differs between public owned installations and installations of the private power utilities. In Germany, past practices has resulted in singular contaminated sites of limited extent, mainly during the first half of the 20. century. Those contaminated sites have been or are being cleaned up and redeveloped. In large areas of Saxony and Thuringia, the geological formations permitted the surface and underground mining of Uranium ore. Facilities of the former Soviet-German WISMUT Ltd. where ore was mined and processed from 1946 until the early 1990's can be found at numerous sites. In the course of the re-unification of Germany, the soviet shares of the WISMUT were taken over by the Federal Republic of Germany and the closure of the WISMUT facilities was initiated. In that phase the extent of the damages to the environment and of the necessary remediation work became clear. All mining and milling sites are now closed and are under decommissioning. A comprehensive remediation concept covers all WISMUT sites. Heaps and mill-tailing ponds are transferred into a long-term stable condition. The area of the facilities to be remediated amounts to more than 30 km 2 . Heaps cover a total area of ca. 15,5 km 2 , tailing ponds in which the tailings resulting from the Uranium production are stored as sludges cover 6,3 km 2 ). In total, the remediation issues are very complex and without precedent. The

  9. Long-Term Retardation of Uranium in the KURT Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baik, Min Hoon; Shin, Joo Do; Park, Tae Jin

    2016-01-01

    One of possibilities resolving this issue is to study the migration and retardation processes of radionuclides in the subsurface environments by using naturally occurring radionuclides as analogues of radioactive waste. To date, however, the long-term behavior of radionuclides in a granitic groundwater system is not yet fully understood. The ubiquitous presence of uranium (U) in rocks makes it an ideal natural analogue for studying the behaviors of radionuclides in a deep geological repository for the final disposal of HLW. In this study, long-term retardation behavior of natural uranium was investigated using granite rock samples taken from the KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel), located in Daejeon city. The distribution of uranium and its binding mechanism in granite samples were investigated using the sequential chemical extraction (SCE) technique combined with X-ray diffraction (XRD) and ICP-MS methods. In this study, the long-term retardation of uranium in the KURT environment was investigated using SCE and EPMA techniques combined with ICP-MS and XRD. Results showed that long-term interaction of rock with groundwater can change U species and mineralize dissolved U, which can consequently contribute to the retardation of U in the fractured granitic rock environment. This study will help us to understand the long-term behavior of radionuclides migrating through the fractured granite rock and then enhance the reliability of the safety assessment for a HLW repository

  10. Natural Variability of Mexican Forest Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco-Herrera, Graciela; Velasco Herrera, Victor Manuel; Kemper-Valverdea, N.

    The purpose of this paper was 1) to present a new algorithm for analyzing the forest fires, 2) to discuss the present understanding of the natural variability at different scales with special emphasis on Mexico conditions since 1972, 3) to analyze the internal and external factors affecting forest fires for example ENSO and Total Solar Irradiance, and 4) to discuss the implications of this knowledge, on research and on restoration and management methods, which purpose is to enhance forest biodiversity conservation. 5) We present an estimate of the Mexican forest fires for the next decade. These results may be useful to minimize human and economic losses.

  11. A Long-term Plan for Kalk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    In this case, the author demonstrates together with the owner-manager of KALK A/S, Mr Rasmus Jorgensen, how to use the Family Business Map to frame a constructive discussion about long-term planning. The Family Business Map is a tool for long-term planning in family firms developed by Professor...

  12. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  13. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China – Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Xu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l. on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994–2013 has increased significantly by 0.2–0.3 ppbv yr−1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry–climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3, a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT can explain ∼ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr−1. AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr−1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why

  14. Long-term outcome of Tunisian children with primary ciliary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is rare. Its diagnosis requires experienced specialists and expensive infrastructure. Its prognosis is variable. Objective: To study the long-term outcome of PCD in Tunisian children with ciliary ultra-structure defects detected by electron microscope. Methods: Covering a period of ...

  15. Long term results of kissing stents in the aortic bifurcation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinnen, J.W.; Konickx, M.A.; Meerwaldt, Robbert; Kolkert, J.L.P.; van der Palen, Jacobus Adrianus Maria; Huisman, A.B.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To evaluate the long-term outcome after aortoiliac kissing stent placement and to analyze variables, which potentially influence the outcome of endovascular reconstruction of the aortic bifurcation. METHODS: All patients treated with aortoiliac kissing stents at our institution between

  16. Long-term creep test with finite elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argyris, J.H.; Szimmat, J.; Willam, K.J.

    1975-01-01

    Following a presentation of concrete creep, a brief summary of the direct and incremental calculation methods for long-term creep behaviour is given. In addition, a survey on the methods of the inner state variables is given which, on the one hand, gives a uniform framework for the various formulations of concrete creep, and on the other hand leads to a computable calculation method. Two examples on long-term creep behaviour illustrate the application field of the calculation method. (orig./LH) [de

  17. On the long-term analysis with finite elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argyris, J.H.; Szimmat, J.; Willam, K.J.

    1975-01-01

    Following a presentation of concrete creep, a brief summary of the direct and incremental calculation methods on long-term behaviour is given. This is followed by a survey of the method of the inner state variables, which on the one hand gives a uniform framework for the various formulations of concrete creep, and on the other hand leads to a computer-ready calculation process. Two examples on long-term behaviour illustrate the regions of application of the computer methods. (orig./LH) [de

  18. ''Is it really green?'' Long-term performance of monocrystalline solar modules as illustrated by the example of a photovoltaic pumping station in a natural reserve (''Schwenninger Moos''); ''Is it really green?'' Langzeiterfahrung mit monokristallinen Solarmodulen am Beispiel der photovoltaischen Pumpstation Schwenninger Moos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assbeck, Franz [Hochschule Furtwangen (Germany). Fakultaet Computer und Electrical Engineering

    2010-03-15

    In 1991, a photovoltaic pumping station was commissioned in the natural reserve ''Schwenninger Moos'' in the southern Black Forest. The pumping station was dismantled when the land was used for the 2010 Baden-Wuerttemberg 'Landesgartenschau' (garden festival). After 18 years of operation, the plant provided valuable information on the long-term performance of monocrystalline solar modules, so the author made detailed measurements and evaluations just before the plant was dismantled, in an attempt to find out about its long-term performance and cost efficiency. The results are presented here. (orig.)

  19. Role of autonomic nervous activity, as measured by heart rate variability, on the effect of mortality in disabled older adults with low blood pressure in long-term care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibasaki, Koji; Ogawa, Sumito; Yamada, Shizuru; Ouchi, Yasuyoshi; Akishita, Masahiro

    2018-04-11

    Previous studies have shown the relationship between low blood pressure and high mortality in frail, disabled older adults in long-term care. However, the mechanism of this relationship is still unclear. We hypothesized that autonomic nervous activity decline is involved in the relationship between low blood pressure and high mortality. The present prospective cohort study recruited 61 participants aged ≥75 years. The data from 24-h Holter monitoring and blood pressure recorded by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring were collected. Measured data were divided into three categories: 24-h, daytime and night-time. From power spectral density in the electrocardiogram, low frequency, high frequency and low frequency/high frequency ratio were calculated. The primary end-point was death. High blood pressure was connected to both high daytime low frequency and high frequency (partial correlation coefficients: 0.42, P blood pressure group had higher mortality than the high blood pressure group, and disabled older adults in long-term care and those with elevated daytime systolic and diastolic blood pressure had less risk of mortality compared with those without (systolic: hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.83-0.96, P = 0.003; diastolic: hazard ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.00, P = 0.049). The average blood pressures in the high blood pressure groups were approximately 140/80 mmHg and were connected to low mortality. Attenuated autonomic nervous activity might lead to low blood pressure in the daytime and high mortality in disabled older adults in long-term care. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; ••: ••-••. © 2018 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  20. Use of quality indicators for long-term evaluation of heavy metals content in soils of an agro-ecological protected wetland: L'Albufera de Valencia Natural Park, Valencia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual-Aguilar, Juan Antonio; Andreu, Vicente; Palop, Carla

    2015-04-01

    Due to the social, economical and environmental importance of agro-ecological wetlands, strategies for periodical evaluation of their environmental quality should be developed, particularly in those areas were a mixture of land uses are supporting the survival of wildlife and migrant species as is the case of most Mediterranean coastal wetlands. The aim of this work is to develop a strategy for a long-term assessment of the environmental quality of soils in a rice-wetland: L'Albufera Natural Park, Spain, in the surroundings of the metropolitan area of Valencia. The area was officially declared as Natural Park in 1986, integrating both the traditional irrigation system and the ecological importance derived from being a Mediterranean Wetland that is now transformed to a large extent in a rice-wetland allowing the presence of a large variety of migrant spices. The methodology consisted in the monitoring of 20 sites distributed in 5 sectors in and around the natural park of potentially contrasting anthropogenic pressure and land use. Soil samples collection were instrumented in two campaigns. The first one was in 1989 (three years after the official declaration as Natural Park of the wetland), and the second 19 years later in 2008. Seven heavy metals (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) were analyzed to determine its total and extractable fractions by treatment with EDTA. Atomic Absorption Spectrometry, using graphite furnace when necessary, was used for the determination of metals. To evaluate the quality of soils at each sampling date four indicators were obtained, namely, Contamination Factor (CF), Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo), Pollution Load Index (PLI) and Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI). Results obtained with quality indicators were further compared to obtain temporal and spatial trends using Geographical Information systems procedures. In general, there is a reduction of metal contents in the study area in both dates. The trend of metals according to average

  1. Multimethod Behavioral Treatment of Long-Term Selective Mutism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, T. Steuart; Kramer, Jack J.

    1992-01-01

    Conducted single-subject, experimental research to examine efficacy of treating severe, long-term selective mutism in nine-year-old male using shaping, multiple reinforcers, natural consequences, stimulus fading, and mild aversives. Implemented different treatment regimens in home and school environments. Home intervention resulted in increase in…

  2. Universal Preschool Programs and Long-Term Child Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietrichson, Jens; Kristiansen, Ida Lykke; Viinholt Nielsen, Bjørn Christian

    2018-01-01

    This systematic review included 25 studies using natural experiments to estimate the effects of universal preschool programs for children aged 0-6 years on child outcomes measured from third grade to adulthood. Studies comparing preschool with parental, family, or other informal modes of care...... alternative types of universal preschool programs in terms of long-term outcomes....

  3. Long-term stabilization of uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voorhees, L.D.; Sale, M.J.; Webb, J.W.; Mulholland, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    The primary hazard associated with uranium mill tailings is exposure to a radioactive gas, radon-222, the concentration of which has been correlated with the occurrence of lung cancer. Previous studies on radon attenuation conclude that the placement of earthen cover materials over the tailings is the most effective technique for reducing radioactive emissions and dispersal of tailings. The success of such a plan, however, is dependent on ensuring the long-term integrity of these cover materials. Soil erosion from water and wind is the major natural cause of destabilizing earthen cover materials. Field data related to the control of soil loss are limited and only indirectly apply to the problem of isolation of uranium mill tailings over very long time periods (up to 80,000 a). However, sufficient information is available to determine benefits that will result from the changes in specific design variables and to evaluate the need for different design strategies among potential disposal sites. The three major options available for stabilization of uranium mill tailings are: rock cover, soil and revegetation, or a combination of both on different portions of the tailings cover. The optimal choice among these alternatives depends on site-specific characteristics such as climate and local geomorphology and soils, and on design variables such as embankment, heights and slopes, modification of upstream drainage, and revegetation practices. Generally, geomorphic evidence suggests that use of soil and vegetation alone will not be adequate to reduce erosion on slopes greater than about 5 to 9%

  4. Visual working memory is more tolerant than visual long-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schurgin, Mark W; Flombaum, Jonathan I

    2018-05-07

    Human visual memory is tolerant, meaning that it supports object recognition despite variability across encounters at the image level. Tolerant object recognition remains one capacity in which artificial intelligence trails humans. Typically, tolerance is described as a property of human visual long-term memory (VLTM). In contrast, visual working memory (VWM) is not usually ascribed a role in tolerant recognition, with tests of that system usually demanding discriminatory power-identifying changes, not sameness. There are good reasons to expect that VLTM is more tolerant; functionally, recognition over the long-term must accommodate the fact that objects will not be viewed under identical conditions; and practically, the passive and massive nature of VLTM may impose relatively permissive criteria for thinking that two inputs are the same. But empirically, tolerance has never been compared across working and long-term visual memory. We therefore developed a novel paradigm for equating encoding and test across different memory types. In each experiment trial, participants saw two objects, memory for one tested immediately (VWM) and later for the other (VLTM). VWM performance was better than VLTM and remained robust despite the introduction of image and object variability. In contrast, VLTM performance suffered linearly as more variability was introduced into test stimuli. Additional experiments excluded interference effects as causes for the observed differences. These results suggest the possibility of a previously unidentified role for VWM in the acquisition of tolerant representations for object recognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Long-term stability of diurnal salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoluda, Nadine; La Marca, Roberto; Gollwitzer, Mario; Müller, Andreas; Limm, Heribert; Marten-Mittag, Birgitt; Gündel, Harald; Angerer, Peter; Nater, Urs M

    2017-06-01

    This study aimed to investigate long-term stability and variability of diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase patterns. Diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns were assessed on a single workday with three waves of measurement across a total time period of 24months in 189 participants. Separate hierarchical linear models were analyzed, with and without a number of potential predictor variables (age, BMI, smoking, chronic stress, stress reactivity). While low long-term stability was found in diurnal cortisol, the stability of diurnal alpha-amylase was moderate across the time period of 24months. Several predictor variables had a positive impact on diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns averaged across waves. Our findings underpin the notion that long-term stability is not necessarily warranted in longitudinal studies. It is important to choose an appropriate study design when attempting to disentangle clinically and biologically relevant changes from naturally occurring variations in diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Long term agreements energy efficiency. Progress 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-11-01

    Long Term Agreements (LTAs) on energy efficiency have been contracted with various business sectors since 1992, as part of energy conservation policy: industrial sectors, commercial services, agrarian sectors and non-profit services. LTAs are voluntary agreements between a specific sector and the Minister of Economic Affairs. In some cases, the Minister of Agriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries is also involved. The sector commits to an effort to improve energy efficiency by a particular percentage within an agreed period. As at 31 December 1999, a total of 29 LTAs had been contracted with industrial sectors and 14 with non-industrial ones. This report describes the progress of the LTAs in 1999. It reviews the energy efficiency improvements realised through the LTAs, both overall and in each individual sector. The aim is to make the efforts and results in the various sectors accessible to the general public. Appendix 1 describes the positioning of the LTA instrument. This Appendix provides and insight into the position of the LTAs within the overall set of policy instruments. It also covers the subsidy schemes and fiscal instruments that support the LTAs, the relationships between LTAs and environmental policy and new developments relating to the LTAs in the years ahead. Appendices 2 to 6 contain the reports on the LTAs and a list of abbreviations (Appendix 7)

  7. Long term prospects for world gas trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linder, P.T.

    1991-01-01

    Results are presented from a world gas trade model used to forecast long term gas markets. Assumptions that went into the model are described, including the extent of current proven gas reserves, production ratios, total energy and gas demand, gas supply cost curves for each producing country, available gas liquefaction and transportation facilities, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping costs. The results indicate that even with generally very low supply costs for most gas producing basins, gas trade will continue to be restricted by the relatively high cost of transportation, whether by pipeline or tanker. As a consequence, future gas trade will tend to be regionally oriented. United States gas imports will come mostly from Canada, Venezuela, and Mexico; Western Europe will largely be supplied by the Soviet Union and Africa, and Japan's requirements will generally be met by Pacific Rim producers. Although the Middle East has vast quantities of gas reserves, its export growth will continue to be hampered by its remote location from major markets. 16 figs

  8. On the relationship between short- and long-term memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    James (1890) divided memory into separate stores; primary and secondary – or short-term and long-term memory. The interaction between the two stores often assumes that information initially is represented in volatile short-term store before entering and consolidating in the more durable long-term......, accepted). Counter to popular beliefs this suggest that long-term memory precedes short-term memory and not vice versa....... memory system (e.g. Atkinson & Shiffrin, 1968). Short-term memory seems to provide a surprising processing bottleneck where only a very limited amount of information can be represented at any given moment (Miller, 1956; Cowan, 2001). A number of studies have investigated the nature of this processing...

  9. Long term wet spent nuclear fuel storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-04-01

    The meeting showed that there is continuing confidence in the use of wet storage for spent nuclear fuel and that long-term wet storage of fuel clad in zirconium alloys can be readily achieved. The importance of maintaining good water chemistry has been identified. The long-term wet storage behaviour of sensitized stainless steel clad fuel involves, as yet, some uncertainties. However, great reliance will be placed on long-term wet storage of spent fuel into the future. The following topics were treated to some extent: Oxidation of the external surface of fuel clad, rod consolidation, radiation protection, optimum methods of treating spent fuel storage water, physical radiation effects, and the behaviour of spent fuel assemblies of long-term wet storage conditions. A number of papers on national experience are included

  10. Industrial Foundations as Long-Term Owners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Steen; Poulsen, Thomas; Børsting, Christa Winther

    Short-termism has become a serious concern for corporate governance, and this has inspired a search for institutional arrangements to promote long-term decision-making. In this paper, we call attention to long-term ownership by industrial foundations, which is common in Northern Europe but little...... known in the rest of the world. We use a unique Danish data set to document that industrial foundations are long-term owners that practice long-term governance. We show that foundation ownership is highly stable compared to other ownership structures. Foundation-owned companies replace managers less...... frequently. They have conservative capital structures with low financial leverage. They score higher on an index of long-termism in finance, investment, and employment. They survive longer. Overall, our paper supports the hypothesis that corporate time horizons are influenced by ownership structures...

  11. Coping with PH over the Long Term

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... a job, a volunteer commitment, or even a hobby can take a toll on long-term survivors ... people find solace in meditation, faith, humor, writing, hobbies and more. Find an outlet that you enjoy ...

  12. Long term effects of radiation in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tso Chih Ping; Idris Besar

    1984-01-01

    An overview of the long term effects of radiation in man is presented, categorizing into somatic effects, genetic effects and teratogenic effects, and including an indication of the problems that arise in their determination. (author)

  13. Long term liquidity analysis of the firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Gonos

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity control is a very difficult and important function. If the business is not liquid in the long term, it is under threatof bankruptcy, and on the other hand surplus of the cash in hand threaten its future efficiency, because the cash in hand is a sourceof only limited profitability. Long term liquidity is related to the ability of the short term and long term liabilities payment. Articleis trying to point out to the monitoring and analyzing of the long term liquidity in the concrete business, in this case the printing industrycompany. Hereby at the end of the article mentioned monitored and analyzed liquidity is evaluated in the five years time period.

  14. Long Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Long-Term Care Minimum Data Set (MDS) is a standardized, primary screening and assessment tool of health status that forms the foundation of the comprehensive...

  15. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted imag...

  16. Unemployment and Long-Term Unemployment of Immigrants in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerija Botrić

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Migration issues in Croatia have been mostly discussed in relation to the recent increase in emigration, in particular related to the emigration of young and highly educated persons. However, active migration policy should consider immigration dynamics as well. In the framework of long-term prospects of the Croatian labour market, and taking into consideration the advanced effects of the demographic aging process, the issue of active immigration policy is expected to become more important in the future. The main goal of the paper is to analyse the existing position of immigrants on the Croatian labour market. Important characteristics of the Croatian labour market in recent years have been a high unemployment rate and high share of long-term unemployment. The effects of these adverse conditions are manifold, not only at the level of the economy (in terms of under-utilisation of available resources, but also at the level of affected individuals. Regarding individuals, the consequences of long-term unemployment frequently incorporate increased distance from the labour market due to the (perceived loss of skills. The aim of the paper is to investigate individual characteristics that predict either unemployment or long-term unemployment of the immigrant population in Croatia. The empirical analysis is based on the Labour Force Survey conducted by the Croatian Central Bureau of Statistics. Due to the data source used, the immigrant population is not defined on the basis of their nationality or citizenship. It entails all persons who were born outside Croatia and currently have permanent residence in the country. The second condition is directly related to the nature of the sample used for the Survey, where the sample frame relies on permanent residency. This implies that any short-term circular migrations (due to, for example, increased labour market during the tourist season are probably not covered by the data. To the extent that this is important

  17. CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

    2006-01-01

    Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

  18. PEBS: an international challenge for improve understanding of the natural barriers to isolate long-term radioactive waste; PEBS: un reto internacional para mejorar el conocimiento de las barreras naturales para aislar residuos radiactivos a largo plazo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaus, I.

    2015-07-01

    The radioactive materials have a wide range of applications ranging from nuclear reactors to the use of isotopes in industries, medicine or research centres. These technologies generate waste whose disposal systems are becoming more sophisticated, to the point of using artificial barriers able to isolate them from contact with other materials, precipitation, surface water and groundwater subsurface. In this context, the European project long term Performance of the engineered Barrier Systems (PeBS), funded by the seventh framework (Fp7) Euratom and has counted with the participation of ENRESA, reviewed the evolution of the performance of sealing and barrier systems of artificial barriers in relevant time scales through the development of a comprehensive method that includes experiments, models, and a consideration of the potential impacts of long-term security functions. (Author)

  19. HLW Long-term Management Technology Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jong Won; Kang, C. H.; Ko, Y. K.

    2010-02-01

    Permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuels from the power generation is considered to be the unique method for the conservation of human being and nature in the present and future. In spite of spent nuclear fuels produced from power generation, based on the recent trends on the gap between supply and demand of energy, the advance on energy price and reduction of carbon dioxide, nuclear energy is expected to play a role continuously in Korea. It means that a new concept of nuclear fuel cycle is needed to solve problems on spent nuclear fuels. The concept of the advanced nuclear fuel cycle including PYRO processing and SFR was presented at the 255th meeting of the Atomic Energy Commission. According to the concept of the advanced nuclear fuel cycle, actinides and long-term fissile nuclides may go out of existence in SFR. And then it is possible to dispose of short term decay wastes without a great risk bearing. Many efforts had been made to develop the KRS for the direct disposal of spent nuclear fuels in the representative geology of Korea. But in the case of the adoption of Advanced nuclear fuel cycle, the disposal of PYRO wastes should be considered. For this, we carried out the Safety Analysis on HLW Disposal Project with 5 sub-projects such as Development of HLW Disposal System, Radwaste Disposal Safety Analysis, Feasibility study on the deep repository condition, A study on the Nuclide Migration and Retardation Using Natural Barrier, and In-situ Study on the Performance of Engineered Barriers

  20. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  1. Long-term microparticle flux variability indicated by comparison of Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) timed impacts for LDEF's first year in orbit with impact data for the entire 5.77-year orbital lifetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Charles G.; Mulholland, J. Derral; Oliver, John P.; Cooke, William J.; Kassel, Philip C., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    The electronic sensors of the Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) recorded precise impact times and approximate directions for submicron to approximately 100 micron size particles on all six primary sides of the spacecraft for the first 346 days of the LDEF orbital mission. Previously-reported analyses of the timed impact data have established their spatio-temporal features, including the demonstration that a preponderance of the particles in this regime are orbital debris and that a large fraction of the debris particles are encountered in megameter-size clouds. Short-term fluxes within such clouds can rise several orders of magnitude above the long-term average. These unexpectedly large short-term variations in debris flux raise the question of how representative an indication of the multi-year average flux is given by the nearly one year of timed data. One of the goals of the IDE was to conduct an optical survey of impact sites on detectors that remained active during the entire LDEF mission, to obtain full-mission fluxes. We present here the comparisons and contrasts among the new IDE optical survey impact data, the IDE first-year timed impact data, and impact data from other LDEF micrometeoroid and debris experiments. The following observations are reported: (1) the 5.77 year long-term integrated microparticle impact fluxes recorded by IDE detectors matched the integrated impact fluxes measured by other LDEF investigators for the same period; (2) IDE integrated microparticle impact fluxes varied by factors from 0.5 to 8.3 for LDEF days 1-346, 347-2106 and 1-2106 (5.77 years) on rows 3 (trailing edge, or West), 6 (South side), 12 (North side), and the Earth and Space ends; and (3) IDE integrated microparticle impact fluxes varied less than 3 percent for LDEF days 1-346, 347-2106 and 1-2106 (5.77 years) on row 9 (leading edge, or East). These results give further evidence of the accuracy and internal consistency of the recorded IDE impact data. This leads to

  2. Very long-term sequelae of craniopharyngioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Mark; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E; Michiels, Erna M C; van Veelen-Vincent, Marie-Lise C; Dallenga, Alof H G; van den Berge, J Herbert; van Rij, Carolien M; van der Lely, Aart-Jan; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

    2017-06-01

    Studies investigating long-term health conditions in patients with craniopharyngioma are limited by short follow-up durations and generally do not compare long-term health effects according to initial craniopharyngioma treatment approach. In addition, studies comparing long-term health conditions between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma report conflicting results. The objective of this study was to analyse a full spectrum of long-term health effects in patients with craniopharyngioma according to initial treatment approach and age group at craniopharyngioma presentation. Cross-sectional study based on retrospective data. We studied a single-centre cohort of 128 patients with craniopharyngioma treated from 1980 onwards (63 patients with childhood-onset disease). Median follow-up since craniopharyngioma presentation was 13 years (interquartile range: 5-23 years). Initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches included gross total resection ( n  = 25), subtotal resection without radiotherapy ( n  = 44), subtotal resection with radiotherapy ( n  = 25), cyst aspiration without radiotherapy ( n  = 8), and 90 Yttrium brachytherapy ( n  = 21). Pituitary hormone deficiencies (98%), visual disturbances (75%) and obesity (56%) were the most common long-term health conditions observed. Different initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches resulted in similar long-term health effects. Patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma experienced significantly more growth hormone deficiency, diabetes insipidus, panhypopituitarism, morbid obesity, epilepsy and psychiatric conditions compared with patients with adult-onset disease. Recurrence-/progression-free survival was significantly lower after initial craniopharyngioma treatment with cyst aspiration compared with other therapeutic approaches. Survival was similar between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma. Long-term health conditions were comparable after

  3. Role of open ocean boundary forcing on seasonal to decadal-scale variability and long-term change of natural shelf hypoxia

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Monteiro, PMS

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available such as those found in the Humboldt (northern Chile) and in the northern Benguela 3 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 025002 P M S Monteiro et al (Angola) and those with eddy-enhanced cross-shelf export, especially anticyclonic, into the ocean domain... of the alongshore (equatorward) wind stress as derived from QuickSCAT over 2000?8 for the coasts of (left) Peru?Chile and (right) Angola?Benguela. Units are Dyn cm?2. Alongshore wind stress is obtained by projecting the meridional and zonal components...

  4. Long-term nitrogen regulation of forest carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Luo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    It is well established that nitrogen (N) limits plant production but unclear how N regulates long-term terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration in response to rising atmospheric C dioxide (CO2)(Luo et al., 2004). Most experimental evidence on C-N interactions is primarily derived from short-term CO2 manipulative studies (e.g. Oren et al., 2001; Reich et al., 2006a), which abruptly increase C inputs into ecosystems and N demand from soil while atmospheric CO2 concentration in the real world is gradually increasing over time (Luo & Reynolds, 1999). It is essential to examine long-term N regulations of C sequestration in natural ecosystems. Here we present results of a synthesis of more than 100 studies on long-term C-N interactions during secondary succession. C significantly accumulates in plant, litter and forest floor in most studies, and in mineral soil in one-third studies during stand development. Substantial increases in C stock are tightly coupled with N accretion. The C: N ratio in plant increases with stand age in most cases, but remains relatively constant in litter, forest floor and mineral soil. Our results suggest that natural ecosystems could have the intrinsic capacity to maintain long-term C sequestration through external N accrual, high N use efficiency, and efficient internal N cycling.

  5. Long-term prisoner in prison isolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina Grudzińska

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-term prisoner belongs to a particular category of people who are imprisoned in prisons. On the one hand in this group are often heavily demoralized people who committed the most serious crimes, on the other hand it is a group of prisoners, who should be well thought out and programmed the impact of rehabilitation. The situation of man trapped for years poses in a complicated situation not only the prisoners, but also the entire prison staff. They have to take care of the fact that the prison isolation did not cause the state in which convicts form itself in learned helplessness and lack of skills for self-planning and decision-making. In addition, planning the rehabilitation impact of long-term prisoners should not be forgotten that these prisoners in the short or the long term will return to the libertarian environment therefore, should prevent any negative effects of long-term imprisonment. This article presents the main issues related to the execution of imprisonment against long-term prisoners. It is an attempt to systematize the knowledge of this category of people living in prison isolation.

  6. Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeon Jin Park

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

  7. A novel apparatus for long term weathering of crude oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, D.; Lun, R.; Skogen, E.; Ooijen, H. Van; Mackay, D.

    1993-01-01

    A novel apparatus is under development for exposing oil in the laboratory to prolonged weathering. The apparatus is mechanically simple and robust and involves contacting oil with water and air, and possibly with solar radiation, under controlled conditions of salinity and turbulence. The principle of operation is that the oil rests on the concave surface of water, which is held in a cylindrical glass vessel and rotated at 33 rpm. The oil is agitated by a fixed stirrer which has a variable pitch. Three oils were studied: Canadian Environmenal Protection Service standard, Kuwait crude, and Prudhoe Bay crude. Gas chromatographic analysis of the oil revealed the expected changes in composition due to evaporation, and purge and trap analysis of the water in contact with the oil determined the nature and concentration of the dissolved hydrocarbons. The apparatus also proved successful for testing the formation of water-in-oil emulsions. It is hoped that the system will contribute to an improved understanding of the mechanisms involved in the long term weathering processes which occur when oil is spilled at sea. 11 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  8. Long-Term Prognosis of Plantar Fasciitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Liselotte; Krogh, Thøger Persson; Ellingsen, Torkell

    2018-01-01

    , exercise-induced symptoms, bilateral heel pain, fascia thickness, and presence of a heel spur) could predict long-term outcomes, (3) to assess the long-term ultrasound (US) development in the fascia, and (4) to assess whether US-guided corticosteroid injections induce atrophy of the heel fat pad. Study....... The risk was significantly greater for women (P heel...... regardless of symptoms and had no impact on prognosis, and neither did the presence of a heel spur. Only 24% of asymptomatic patients had a normal fascia on US at long-term follow-up. A US-guided corticosteroid injection did not cause atrophy of the heel fat pad. Our observational study did not allow us...

  9. Long-term dependence in exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Karytinos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

  10. The Long Term Features of Tropical Cyclones Nearby Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yueh-Shyuan; Lee, Cheng-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is affected by several factors. The variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has been examined in the past decade. Previous studies showed that TC activity (such as TC number, intensity and tracks) has multiscale variation or affected by natural oscillation of different scales. However, most of these studies focused mainly on the entire WNP. Very few studies examined the variability of annual TC track or the variability of TC number in the area nearby Taiwan, which caused severe economic loss and life damage to Taiwan in the typhoon season. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the variation of TC activity nearby Taiwan to address its long term features, and also the possible relationship with the associated flow patterns. Preliminary results of wavelet analysis showed that the TC number nearby Taiwan during 1970-2014 had multiscale variations. The following analysis focused on the scale about 4- and 11-year signals, in the targeted area of 118o-125oE, 20o-27oN. The positive phases of both scale 4 and scale 11 showed a tendency of TC tracks toward Taiwan area, while the negative phases showed a lower tendency toward Taiwan. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied on the 4-yr and the 11-yr filtered 500-hPa wind fields and geopotential heights. Results showed that the 4-yr signal was mostly dominated by the 500-hPa U- and V-wind fields, suggesting that the TC track patterns were affected mainly by the midlevel steering flow. On the other hand, the 11-yr signal was mostly dominated by the 500-hPa U-wind field and geopotential anomalies, indicating that the main cause of the difference in TC occurrence nearby Taiwan was the location of TC formation.

  11. Measurement of the 36Cl deposition flux in central Japan: natural background levels and seasonal variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tosaki, Yuki; Tase, Norio; Sasa, Kimikazu; Takahashi, Tsutomu; Nagashima, Yasuo

    2012-01-01

    Essential parameters for the applications of 36 Cl as a tracer in groundwater studies include the initial 36 Cl/Cl ratio, at the time of recharge, and/or the natural background deposition flux of 36 Cl in the recharge area. To facilitate the hydrological use of 36 Cl in central Japan, this study aimed to obtain a precise estimate of the long-term average local 36 Cl flux and to characterize its seasonal variability. The 36 Cl in precipitation was continuously monitored in Tsukuba, central Japan over a period of >5 years. The 36 Cl flux showed a clear seasonal variation with an annual peak during the spring, which was attributed to the seasonal variability of tropopause height. The long-term average 36 Cl flux (32 ± 2 atoms m −2 s −1 ), estimated from the measured data, was consistent with the prediction from the 36 Cl latitudinal fallout model scaled using the global mean production rate of 20 atoms m −2 s −1 . The initial 36 Cl/Cl ratio was estimated to be (41 ± 6) × 10 −15 , which is similar to that of pre-bomb groundwater in the Tsukuba Upland. An observation period covering an 11-year solar cycle would yield more accurate estimates of the values, given the increased 36 Cl flux during the solar minimum. - Highlights: ► We monitored 36 Cl in precipitation in central Japan over a period of >5 years. ► The 36 Cl flux varied seasonally, with a peak in spring. ► The long-term average 36 Cl flux and the initial 36 Cl/Cl ratio were 32 ± 2 atoms m −2 s −1 and (41 ± 6) × 10 −15 , respectively. ► An observation period covering an 11-year solar cycle would yield more accurate estimates of the values, given the increased 36 Cl flux during the solar minimum.

  12. Long term planning for wind energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trinick, M.

    1995-01-01

    In a planning system intended to be governed primarily by policies in statutory plans a reasonable horizon for long term planning is 10 years or longer. Because of statutory requirements, developers have no option but to pay due regard to, and take a full part in, long term planning. The paper examines the type of policies which have emerged in the last few years to cater for wind energy development. It canvasses the merits of different types of policies. Finally, it discusses the policy framework which may emerge to cater for development outside NFFO. (Author)

  13. Long-term characteristics of nuclear emulsion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naganawa, N; Kuwabara, K

    2010-01-01

    Long-term characteristics of the nuclear emulsion so called 'OPERA film' used in the neutrino oscillation experiment, OPERA, has been studied for 8 years since its production or refreshing after it. In the results, it turned out to be excellent in sensitivity, amount of random noise, and refreshing characteristics. The retention capacity of latent image of tracks was also studied. The result will open the way to the recycling of 7,000,000 emulsion films which will remain not developed after 5 years of OPERA's run, and other long-term experiments with emulsion.

  14. Long-term characteristics of nuclear emulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naganawa, N.; Kuwabara, K.

    2010-02-01

    Long-term characteristics of the nuclear emulsion so called ``OPERA film'' used in the neutrino oscillation experiment, OPERA, has been studied for 8 years since its production or refreshing after it. In the results, it turned out to be excellent in sensitivity, amount of random noise, and refreshing characteristics. The retention capacity of latent image of tracks was also studied. The result will open the way to the recycling of 7,000,000 emulsion films which will remain not developed after 5 years of OPERA's run, and other long-term experiments with emulsion.

  15. Long-term home care scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette; Jensen, Thomas Sejr

    In several countries, home care is provided for certain citizens living at home. The long-term home care scheduling problem is to generate work plans spanning several days such that a high quality of service is maintained and the overall cost is kept as low as possible. A solution to the problem...... provides detailed information on visits and visit times for each employee on each of the covered days. We propose a branch-and-price algorithm for the long-term home care scheduling problem. The pricing problem generates one-day plans for an employee, and the master problem merges the plans with respect...

  16. Long term storage techniques for 85Kr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, B.A.; Pence, D.T.; Staples, B.A.

    1975-01-01

    As new nuclear fuel reprocessing plants go on stream, the collection of fission product 85 Kr will be required to avoid potential local release problems and long-term atmospheric buildup. Storage of the collected 85 Kr for a period of at least 100 years will be necessary to allow approximately 99.9 percent decay before it is released. A program designed to develop and evaluate proposed methods for long-term storage of 85 Kr is discussed, and the results of a preliminary evaluation of three methods, high pressure steel cylinders, zeolite encapsulation, and clathrate inclusion are presented. (U.S.)

  17. Simulation and transient analyses of a complete passive heat removal system in a downward cooling pool-type material testing reactor against a complete station blackout and long-term natural convection mode using the RELAP5/3.2 code

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afshin Hedayat

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a complete station blackout (SBO or complete loss of electrical power supplies is simulated and analyzed in a downward cooling 5-MW pool-type Material Testing Reactor (MTR. The scenario is traced in the absence of active cooling systems and operators. The code nodalization is successfully benchmarked against experimental data of the reactor's operating parameters. The passive heat removal system includes downward water cooling after pump breakdown by the force of gravity (where the coolant streams down to the unfilled portion of the holdup tank, safety flapper opening, flow reversal from a downward to an upward cooling direction, and then the upward free convection heat removal throughout the flapper safety valve, lower plenum, and fuel assemblies. Both short-term and long-term natural core cooling conditions are simulated and investigated using the RELAP5 code. Short-term analyses focus on the safety flapper valve operation and flow reversal mode. Long-term analyses include simulation of both complete SBO and long-term operation of the free convection mode. Results are promising for pool-type MTRs because this allows operators to investigate RELAP code abilities for MTR thermal–hydraulic simulations without any oscillation; moreover, the Tehran Research Reactor is conservatively safe against the complete SBO and long-term free convection operation.

  18. Simulation and transient analyses of a complete passive heat removal system in a downward cooling pool-type material testing reactor against a complete station blackout and long-term natural convection mode using the RELAP5/3.2 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hedayat, Afshin [Reactor and Nuclear Safety School, Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute (NSTRI), Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    In this paper, a complete station blackout (SBO) or complete loss of electrical power supplies is simulated and analyzed in a downward cooling 5-MW pool-type Material Testing Reactor (MTR). The scenario is traced in the absence of active cooling systems and operators. The code nodalization is successfully benchmarked against experimental data of the reactor's operating parameters. The passive heat removal system includes downward water cooling after pump breakdown by the force of gravity (where the coolant streams down to the unfilled portion of the holdup tank), safety flapper opening, flow reversal from a downward to an upward cooling direction, and then the upward free convection heat removal throughout the flapper safety valve, lower plenum, and fuel assemblies. Both short-term and long-term natural core cooling conditions are simulated and investigated using the RELAP5 code. Short-term analyses focus on the safety flapper valve operation and flow reversal mode. Long-term analyses include simulation of both complete SBO and long-term operation of the free convection mode. Results are promising for pool-type MTRs because this allows operators to investigate RELAP code abilities for MTR thermal–hydraulic simulations without any oscillation; moreover, the Tehran Research Reactor is conservatively safe against the complete SBO and long-term free convection operation.

  19. Long-term photometric behaviour of outbursting AM CVn systems

    OpenAIRE

    Levitan, David; Groot, Paul J.; Prince, Thomas A.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Laher, Russ; Ofek, Eran O.; Sesar, Branimir; Surace, Jason

    2015-01-01

    The AM CVn systems are a class of He-rich, post-period minimum, semidetached, ultracompact binaries. Their long-term light curves have been poorly understood due to the few systems known and the long (hundreds of days) recurrence times between outbursts. We present combined photometric light curves from the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research, Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey, and Palomar Transient Factory synoptic surveys to study the photometric variability of these systems over an almo...

  20. Long-term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

    OpenAIRE

    Alderman,Harold; Hoddinott, John; Kinsey, Bill

    2003-01-01

    "This paper examines the impact of preschool malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects-instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long-term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought 'shocks' are used to identify differences in preschool nutritional status across siblings. Improvements in height-for-age in preschoolers are associated with increased height as a young adult and number of grades of schooling completed....

  1. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  2. The influence of flood frequency, riparian vegetation and threshold on long-term river transport capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Davy, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Climate fluctuations at geological timescales control the capacity of rivers to transport sediment with consequences on geochemical cycles, sedimentary basins dynamics and sedimentation/tectonics interactions. While the impact of differential friction generated by riparian vegetation has been studied for individual flood events, its impact on the long-term sediment transport capacity of rivers, modulated by the frequency of floods remains unknown. Here, we investigate this effect on a simplified river-floodplain configuration obeying observed hydraulic scaling laws. We numerically integrate the full-frequency magnitude distribution of discharge events and its impact on the transport capacity of bedload and suspended material for various level of vegetation-linked differential friction. We demonstrate that riparian vegetation by acting as a virtual confinement of the flow i) increases significantly the instantaneous transport capacity of the river independently of the transport mode and ii) increases the long term bedload transport rates as a function of discharge variability. Our results expose the dominance of flood frequency rather than riparian vegetation on the long term sediment transport capacity. Therefore, flood frequency has to be considered when evaluating long-term bedload transport capacity while floodplain vegetation is important only in high discharge variability regimes. By comparing the transport capacity of unconfined alluvial rivers and confined bedrock gorges, we demonstrate that the latter always presents the highest long term transport capacity at equivalent width and slope. The loss of confinement at the transition between bedrock and alluvial river must be compensated by a widening or a steepening of the alluvial channel to avoid infinite storage. Because steepening is never observed in natural system, we compute the alluvial widening factor value that varies between 3 to 11 times the width of the bedrock channel depending on riparian

  3. A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018. (author)

  4. Experiences of long-term tranquillizer use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skinhoj, K T; Larsson, S; Helweg-Joergensen, S

    2001-01-01

    , the psychodynamic perspective is integrated within a multi-dimensional model that considers biological, cognitive, identity, gender and social learning factors. The analysis reveals the possibility of achieving a detailed understanding of the dynamic processes involved in the development of long-term tranquillizer...

  5. Long-Term Orientation in Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, G.J.; Jonker, C.M.; Verwaart, D.

    2008-01-01

    Trust does not work in the same way across cultures. This paper presents an agent model of behavior in trade across Hofstedes cultural dimension of long-term vs. short-term orientation. The situation is based on a gaming simulation, the Trust and Tracing game. The paper investigates the

  6. Safety of long-term PPI therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reimer, Christina

    2013-01-01

    Proton pump inhibitors have become the mainstay of medical treatment of acid-related disorders. Long-term use is becoming increasingly common, in some cases without a proper indication. A large number of mainly observational studies on a very wide range of possible associations have been publishe...... to a careful evaluation of the indication for PPI treatment....

  7. Financial Incentives in Long-Term Care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.L.H. Bakx (Pieter)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Long-term care (ltc) aims to help individuals to cope with their impairments. In my thesis, I describe ltc financing alternatives and their consequences for the allocation of ltc. This thesis consists of two parts. In the first part, I investigate how alternative ways

  8. Long-term outcomes of patellofemoral arthroplasty.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonbergen, J.P.W. van; Werkman, D.M.; Barnaart, L.F.; Kampen, A. van

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to correlate the long-term survival of patellofemoral arthroplasty with primary diagnosis, age, sex, and body mass index. One hundred eighty-five consecutive Richards type II patellofemoral arthroplasties were performed in 161 patients with isolated patellofemoral

  9. Long-Term Memory and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crossland, John

    2011-01-01

    The English National Curriculum Programmes of Study emphasise the importance of knowledge, understanding and skills, and teachers are well versed in structuring learning in those terms. Research outcomes into how long-term memory is stored and retrieved provide support for structuring learning in this way. Four further messages are added to the…

  10. The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    number of years, leading to substantial additional federal spending. For example, the nation could experience a massive earthquake, a nuclear meltdown...budget surpluses remaining after paying down publicly held debt available for redemption . a. For comparison with the current long-term projections, CBO

  11. Long-term effects of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Alexander; Burkart, Werner; Grosche, Bernd; Jung, Thomas; Martignoni, Klaus; Stephan, Guenther

    1997-01-01

    This paper approaches the long-term effects of ionizing radiation considering the common thought that killing of cells is the basis for deterministic effects and that the subtle changes in genetic information are important in the development of radiation-induced cancer, or genetic effects if these changes are induced in germ cells

  12. Pituitary diseases : long-term psychological consequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tiemensma, Jitske

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, pituitary adenomas can be appropriately treated, but patients continue to report impaired quality of life (QoL) despite long-term remission or cure. In patients with Cushing’s disease, Cushing’s syndrome or acromegaly, doctors should be aware of subtle cognitive impairments and the

  13. The long term stability of lidar calibrations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Courtney, Michael; Gayle Nygaard, Nicolai

    Wind lidars are now used extensively for wind resource measurements. One of the requirements for the data to be accepted in support of project financing (so-called ‘banka-bility’) is to demonstrate the long-term stability of lidar cali-brations. Calibration results for six Leosphere WindCube li...

  14. Rebalancing for Long-Term Investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, Joost; Kuiper, Ivo

    2017-01-01

    In this study we show that the rebalance frequency of a multi-asset portfolio has only limited impact on the utility of a long-term passive investor. Although continuous rebalancing is optimal, the loss of a suboptimal strategy corresponds to up to only 30 basis points of the initial wealth of the

  15. Long-term effects of acoustic reafference training (ART).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzera, Alexandra; Hohmann, Tanja; Streese, Lukas; Habbig, Anja; Raab, Markus

    2017-11-01

    In sport visual feedback is often used to enhance performance, mostly neglecting the auditory modality. However, athletes produce natural sounds when they move (acoustic reafferences) which they perceive and use to control their movements. We examined the short- and long-term effects of a training intervention on a complex movement by using acoustic reafferences. Natural step sounds produced during hurdling were recorded and played back to the participants immediately before each trial, with an increase (fast group), decrease (slow group), or no manipulation (control group) in the tempo. All groups increased their hurdling performance regarding overall running time, with the slow group showing the best performance development. After a 10-week retention, the fast and slow group further increased performance, whereas the control group declined. The repeated experience with acoustic information associated with the rhythmic pattern of hurdling may have helped developing a cognitive representation of that movement, especially regarding long-term effects.

  16. Long-term efficacy of reverse pull headgear therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Andrew P; Sarver, David M; Proffit, William R

    2006-11-01

    To add to the data for long-term reverse pull headgear (RPHG) outcomes and further explore possible variables that could be predictors of long-term failure. Cephalometric radiographs of 41 Class III malocclusion children treated with RPHG (face mask) were evaluated before and immediately after treatment; at 5 years posttreatment; and, for 18 patients, at 10 years posttreatment. Patients were assigned to success or failure groups according to positive or negative overjet at the longest available recall. Seventy-five percent of the patients maintained positive overjet, whereas 25% outgrew the correction. In a stepwise discriminant analysis, a large mandible and vertical positioning of the maxilla and mandible so that mandibular growth would be projected more horizontally were the major indicators of unfavorable later mandibular growth. Patients who experienced downward-backward rotation of the mandible during RPHG treatment were more likely to be categorized in the failure group. The age at which treatment began had no effect on long-term success and failure for patients younger than 10 years, but the percentage of successful treatment decreased after that age. When RPHG treatment is used for all but the most obviously prognathic children to correct anterior cross-bite in the early mixed dentition, positive overjet is maintained long-term in 70%-75% of cases, whereas 25%-30% of cases relapse into reverse overjet mainly because of increased horizontally directed and often late mandibular growth. Up to age 10, the time at which RPHG treatment began does not appear to be a major factor in long-term success in maintaining positive overjet.

  17. Long-term environmental monitoring for assessment of change: measurement inconsistencies over time and potential solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingsen, Kari E; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Hewitt, Judi E; Thrush, Simon F

    2017-10-30

    The importance of long-term environmental monitoring and research for detecting and understanding changes in ecosystems and human impacts on natural systems is widely acknowledged. Over the last decades, a number of critical components for successful long-term monitoring have been identified. One basic component is quality assurance/quality control protocols to ensure consistency and comparability of data. In Norway, the authorities require environmental monitoring of the impacts of the offshore petroleum industry on the Norwegian continental shelf, and in 1996, a large-scale regional environmental monitoring program was established. As a case study, we used a sub-set of data from this monitoring to explore concepts regarding best practices for long-term environmental monitoring. Specifically, we examined data from physical and chemical sediment samples and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages from 11 stations from six sampling occasions during the period 1996-2011. Despite the established quality assessment and quality control protocols for this monitoring program, we identified several data challenges, such as missing values and outliers, discrepancies in variable and station names, changes in procedures without calibration, and different taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, we show that the use of different laboratories over time makes it difficult to draw conclusions with regard to some of the observed changes. We offer recommendations to facilitate comparison of data over time. We also present a new procedure to handle different taxonomic resolution, so valuable historical data is not discarded. These topics have a broader relevance and application than for our case study.

  18. The long-term climate change task of the Hanford permanent isolation barrier development program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program is developing an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed that will function in what is currently a semiarid environment (mean annual precipitation and temperature of 16 cm and 11.8 degrees C, respectively) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task has specific goals of (1) obtaining defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future; (2) developing several test-case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, including both greenhouse warming and cycling into another ice age; and (3) using the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance. Results from the Carp Lake Pollen Coring Project indicate that for the last approximately 100,000 yr the Columbia River Basin's long-term range of mean annual precipitation ranged from 25%--50% below to 28% above modern levels, while temperature has ranged from 7 degrees C--10 degrees C below to 2 degrees C above modern levels. This long record provides confidence that such a range should bracket potential natural climate change even if the earth cycles back into another Ice Age in the next few millennia

  19. Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoetzl, H. [GSF-Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit, Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Winkler, R. [GSF-Forschungszentrum fuer Umwelt und Gesundheit, Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz, Oberschleissheim (Germany)

    1994-10-01

    Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration was investigated from 1982 to 1992 at a semi-natural location 10 km north of Munich, southern Germany. For this period the continuous measurement yielded a long-term average of 8.6 Bq.m{sup -3} (arithmetic mean) and 6.9 Bq.m{sup -3} (geometric mean), from which an average annual effective dose of 0.14 mSv due to outdoor radon can be derived. A long-term trend of the radon concentration was not detectable over the whole period of observation. However, by time series analysis, a long-term cyclic pattern was identified with two maxima (1984-1986, 1989-1991) and two minima (1982-1983, 1987-1988). The seasonal pattern is characterized by an autumn maximum and an early summer minimum. On average, the seasonal maximum in October was found to be higher by a factor of 2 than the June minimum. The diurnal variation of the radon concentration shows a maximum in the early morning and a minimum in the afternoon. On average, this maximum is a factor of 2 higher than the minimum. In the long term a seasonal pattern was observed for diurnal variation, with an average diurnal maximum to minimum ratio of 1.5 in winter compared with 3.5 in the summer months. The radon concentration is correlated with a meteorological parameter (stagnation index) which takes into account horizontal and vertical exchange processes and the wash-out of aerosols in the lower atmosphere. (orig.)

  20. Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoetzl, H.; Winkler, R.

    1994-01-01

    Long-term variation of outdoor radon equilibrium equivalent concentration was investigated from 1982 to 1992 at a semi-natural location 10 km north of Munich, southern Germany. For this period the continuous measurement yielded a long-term average of 8.6 Bq.m -3 (arithmetic mean) and 6.9 Bq.m -3 (geometric mean), from which an average annual effective dose of 0.14 mSv due to outdoor radon can be derived. A long-term trend of the radon concentration was not detectable over the whole period of observation. However, by time series analysis, a long-term cyclic pattern was identified with two maxima (1984-1986, 1989-1991) and two minima (1982-1983, 1987-1988). The seasonal pattern is characterized by an autumn maximum and an early summer minimum. On average, the seasonal maximum in October was found to be higher by a factor of 2 than the June minimum. The diurnal variation of the radon concentration shows a maximum in the early morning and a minimum in the afternoon. On average, this maximum is a factor of 2 higher than the minimum. In the long term a seasonal pattern was observed for diurnal variation, with an average diurnal maximum to minimum ratio of 1.5 in winter compared with 3.5 in the summer months. The radon concentration is correlated with a meteorological parameter (stagnation index) which takes into account horizontal and vertical exchange processes and the wash-out of aerosols in the lower atmosphere. (orig.)

  1. Long-term outcome of sports injuries : results after inpatient treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, R; van der Sluis, CK; Groothoff, JW; Eisma, WH; ten Duis, HJ

    Objective: To investigate whether sports injuries result in long-term disabilities and handicaps and to establish variables with a prognostic value for the occurrence of these long-term consequences. Materials and methods: All patients older than 17 years of age and admitted to the University

  2. Long-term selenium status in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskett, C.K.; Spate, V.L.; Mason, M.M.; Nichols, T.A.; Williams, A.; Dubman, I.M.; Gudino, A.; Denison, J.; Morris, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    The association of sub-optimal selenium status with increased risk factors for some cancers has been reported in two recent epidemiological studies. In both studies the same threshold in selenium status was observed, below which, cancer incidence increased. To assess the use of nails as a biologic monitor to measure the long-term selenium status, an eight-year longitudinal study was undertaken with a group of 11 adult subjects, 5 women and 6 men. Selenium has been measured by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Differences between fingernails and toenails with be discussed. In addition, the results will be discussed in the context of the long-term stability of the nail monitor to measure selenium status during those periods when selenium determinants are static; and the changes that occur as a result of selenium supplementation. (author)

  3. Long-Term Ownership by Industrial Foundations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Børsting, Christa Winther; Kuhn, Johan Moritz; Poulsen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    in Denmark. Industrial foundations are independent legal entities without owners or members typically with the dual objective of preserving the company and using excess profits for charity. We use a unique Danish data set to examine the governance of foundation-owned companies. We show that they are long......-term in several respects. Foundations hold on to their shares for longer. Foundation-owned companies replace managers less frequently. They have more conservative capital structures with less leverage. Their companies survive longer. Their business decisions appear to be more long term. This paper supports...... the hypothesis that time horizons are influenced by ownership structures and particularly that industrial foundations promote longtermism. Policymakers which are interested in promoting longtermism should allow and perhaps even encourage the creation of industrial foundations. More generally they should consider...

  4. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  5. Long-term effects of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, J.; Smith, T.

    1981-01-01

    It is pointed out that sources of long-term damage from radiation are two-fold. People who have been exposed to doses of radiation from initial early fallout but have recovered from the acute effects may still suffer long-term damage from their exposure. Those who have not been exposed to early fallout may be exposed to delayed fallout, the hazards from which are almost exclusively from ingesting strontium, caesium and carbon isotopes present in food; the damage caused is relatively unimportant compared with that caused by the brief doses from initial radiation and early fallout. A brief discussion is presented of the distribution of delayed long-lived isotope fallout, and an outline is sketched of late biological effects, such as malignant disease, cataracts, retarded development, infertility and genetic effects. (U.K.)

  6. Infrared variability and nature of symbiotic stars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feast, M W; Robertson, B S.C.; Catchpole, R M [Royal Observatory, Cape Town (South Africa)

    1977-05-01

    Most symbiotic stars may be placed in one of two classes according to their infrared colours. In one group the systems contain an M type giant. In the other there is evidence for a star plus infrared emission from dust. JHKL photometry is given for three members of each class. Photometry of the VV Cephei system FR Sct is also given. No evidence for variability was found for systems without dust. The three systems with dust (RX Pup, RR Tel and PK 280-2/sup 0/.1) each show large variations of the stellar component (..delta..J, 1sup(m).6 to 2sup(m).7). It is concluded that these dusty systems contain Mira variables. For the systems without dust the mass transfer in the system is presumably through the inner Lagrangian point. For systems containing Miras it is possible that the companion accretes matter from a general stellar wind. Symbiotic systems containing Mira variables have more dust than average Mira variables. Either an unusually dense stellar wind is needed to produce a symbiotic system or such a system produces dust, perhaps in a high-density region resulting from the interaction of the stellar wind with the companion.

  7. Long term economic relationships from cointegration maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicente, Renato; Pereira, Carlos de B.; Leite, Vitor B. P.; Caticha, Nestor

    2007-07-01

    We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the sorting points into neighborhoods (SPIN) technique, which has been previously used to analyze large data sets from DNA arrays. We exemplify the technique in three data sets: US interest rates (USIR), monthly inflation rates and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates.

  8. Murine model of long term obstructive jaundice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A.; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-01-01

    Background With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of 3 murine models of obstructive jaundice. Methods C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Results 70% (7/10) of tCL mice died by Day 7, whereas majority 67% (10/15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. 19% (3/16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond Day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 days after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by Day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension as well as severe fibrosis by Day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. Conclusion The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice but long term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. PMID:27916350

  9. Long-term course of opioid addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

  10. Long-term economic outlook. Annual review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-01-01

    This review provides economic growth forecast tables for Ontario, Canada, the US, Western Europe, and Japan. Economic growth, government policy, the long-term prospects for inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, trends in the Canadian dollar, and energy markets and prices are also reviewed. Data generally cover 1965-2025. Appendices give a summary of historical and forecast data. 18 figs., 16 tabs.

  11. Long-term data storage in diamond

    OpenAIRE

    Dhomkar, Siddharth; Henshaw, Jacob; Jayakumar, Harishankar; Meriles, Carlos A.

    2016-01-01

    The negatively charged nitrogen vacancy (NV?) center in diamond is the focus of widespread attention for applications ranging from quantum information processing to nanoscale metrology. Although most work so far has focused on the NV? optical and spin properties, control of the charge state promises complementary opportunities. One intriguing possibility is the long-term storage of information, a notion we hereby introduce using NV-rich, type 1b diamond. As a proof of principle, we use multic...

  12. French Approach for Long Term Storage Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marciano, Jacob; Carreton, Jean-Pierre; Lizot, Marie Therese; Lhomme, Veronique

    2014-01-01

    IRSN presents its statement regarding long-term storage facilities; in France, the regulatory documents do not define the long term duration. The storage facility lifetime can only be appreciated according to the needs and materials stored therein. However, the magnitude of the long-term can be estimated at a few hundred years compared to a few decades for current storage. Usually, in France, construction of storage facilities is driven from the necessity various necessities, linked to the management of radioactive material (eg spent fuel) and to the management of radioactive waste. Because of the variety of 'stored materials and objects' (fission product solutions, plutonium oxide powders, activated solids, drums containing technological waste, spent fuel...), a great number of storage facility design solutions have been developed (surface, subsurface areas, dry or wet conditions...) in the World. After describing the main functions of a storage facility, IRSN displays the safety principles and the associated design principles. The specific design principles applied to particular storage (dry or wet spent fuel storage, depleted uranium or reprocessed uranium storage, plutonium storage, waste containing tritium storage, HLW and ILLW storage...) are also presented. Finally, the concerns due to the long-term duration storage and related safety assessment are developed. After discussing these issues, IRSN displays its statement. The authorization procedures governing the facility lifetime are similar to those of any basic nuclear installation, the continuation of the facility operation remaining subject to periodic safety reviews (in France, every 10 years). The applicant safety cases have to show, that the safety requirements are always met; this requires, at minimum, to take into account at the design stage, comfortable design margins. (author)

  13. Accounting of Long-Term Biological Assets

    OpenAIRE

    Valeriy Mossakovskyy; Vasyl Korytnyy

    2015-01-01

    The article is devoted to generalization of experience in valuation of long-term biological assets of plant-growing and animal-breeding, and preparation of suggestions concerning improvement of accounting in this field. Recommendations concerning accounting of such assets are given based on the study of accounting practice at specific agricultural company during long period of time. Authors believe that fair value is applicable only if price level for agricultural products is fixed by the gov...

  14. Timber joints under long-term loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feldborg, T.; Johansen, M.

    This report describes tests and results from stiffness and strength testing of splice joints under long-term loading. During two years of loading the spicimens were exposed to cyclically changing relative humidity. After the loading period the specimens were short-term tested. The connectors were...... integral nail-plates and nailed steel and plywood gussets. The report is intended for designers and researchers in timber engineering....

  15. Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors

    OpenAIRE

    Shaun K. Roache; Alexander P. Attie

    2009-01-01

    Long-term investors face a common problem-how to maintain the purchasing power of their assets over time and achieve a level of real returns consistent with their investment objectives. While inflation-linked bonds and derivatives have been developed to hedge the effects of inflation, their limited supply and liquidity lead many investors to continue to rely on the indirect hedging properties of traditional asset classes. In this paper, we assess these properties over different time horizons,...

  16. Long term evolution 4G and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Yacoub, Michel; Figueiredo, Fabrício; Tronco, Tania

    2016-01-01

    This book focus on Long Term Evolution (LTE) and beyond. The chapters describe different aspects of research and development in LTE, LTE-Advanced (4G systems) and LTE-450 MHz such as telecommunications regulatory framework, voice over LTE, link adaptation, power control, interference mitigation mechanisms, performance evaluation for different types of antennas, cognitive mesh network, integration of LTE network and satellite, test environment, power amplifiers and so on. It is useful for researchers in the field of mobile communications.

  17. Long-Term Care Services for Veterans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-14

    includes but is not limited to home physical , occupational, or speech therapy ; wound care; and intravenous (IV) care. A VA physician determines that a...restoring/rehabilitating the veteran’s health, such as skilled nursing care, physical therapy , occupational therapy , and IV therapy Same as HBPC... geriatric evaluation,  palliative care,  adult day health care,  homemaker/home health aide care,  respite care, Long-Term Care Services for

  18. Long term adequacy of uranium resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steyn, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper examines the adequacy of world economic uranium resources to meet requirements in the very long term, that is until at least 2025 and beyond. It does so by analysing current requirements forecasts, existing and potential production centre supply capability schedules and national resource estimates. It takes into account lead times from resource discovery to production and production rate limitations. The institutional and political issues surrounding the question of adequacy are reviewed. (author)

  19. Long-Term Resource Adequacy, Long-Term Flexibility Requirements, and Revenue Sufficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron P [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Townsend, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ela, Erik [Electric Power Research Institute; Botterud, Audun [Argonne National Laboratory; Levin, Todd [Argonne National Laboratory

    2018-02-15

    Variable generation (VG) can reduce market prices over time and also the energy that other suppliers can sell in the market. The suppliers that are needed to provide capacity and flexibility to meet the long-term reliability requirements may, therefore, earn less revenue. This chapter discusses the topics of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency - that is, determining and acquiring the quantity of capacity that will be needed at some future date and ensuring that those suppliers that offer the capacity receive sufficient revenue to recover their costs. The focus is on the investment time horizon and the installation of sufficient generation capability. First, the chapter discusses resource adequacy, including newer methods of determining adequacy metrics. The chapter then focuses on revenue sufficiency and how suppliers have sufficient opportunity to recover their total costs. The chapter closes with a description of the mechanisms traditionally adopted by electricity markets to mitigate the issues of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency and discusses the most recent market design changes to address these issues.

  20. [Stabilization and long-term effect of chromium contaminated soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jing; Luo, Qi-Shi; Zhang, Chang-Bo; Tan, Liang; Li, Xu

    2013-10-01

    Short-term (3 d and 28 d) and long-term (1 a) stabilization effects of Cr contaminated soil were investigated through nature curing, using four amendments including ferrous sulfide, ferrous sulfate, zero-valent iron and sodium dithionite. The results indicated that ferrous sulfide and zero-valent iron were not helpful for the stabilization of Cr(VI) when directly used because of their poor solubility and immobility. Ferrous sulfate could effectively and rapidly decrease total leaching Cr and Cr(VI) content. The stabilization effect was further promoted by the generation of iron hydroxides after long-term curing. Sodium dithionite also had positive effect on soil stabilization. Appropriate addition ratio of the two chemicals could help maintain the soil pH in range of 6-8.

  1. Long term contracts in portfolios of core LDC gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    John, F.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper recommends that local distribution companies (LDCs) should use a portfolio approach for their gas supply strategy. The author recommends that LDCs not rely on spot supplies to meet the peak needs of the core residential and commercial markets. He recommends that a secure supply through long-term contracts are better sources than spot or even intermediate term suppliers. The paper provides a brief outline format of the advantages to the use of a portfolio approach which include the rapid restructuring of the market, general changes in the market, and general market performance. By maintaining a portfolio, a list of available natural gas suppliers is always available. This portfolio also acts to compare pricing between short, medium, and long-term pricing for the LDCs

  2. Long term contracts in portfolios of gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper promotes the idea of long-term contracting for natural gas local distributors and utilities. It presents a brief history of how the spot-market developed and the effects spot-marketing can have in times of supply shortages. This has also resulted in a drastic decrease in exploration and development in the gas industry as gas supplies have exceeding demand, driving the prices down. The paper proposes several methods to restabilize the long-term contracting of gas by considering volume and pricing flexibility. Some brief discussions of industry-wide statistics are presented to show reserve replacement costs which would be needed to preserve the industry in a profit-making situation

  3. Sexuality and Physical Intimacy in Long Term Care: Sexuality, long term care, capacity assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Lichtenberg, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Sexuality and sexual needs in older adults remains a neglected area of clinical intervention, particularly so in long term care settings. Because older adults in medical rehabilitation and long term care beds present with significant frailties, and often significant neurocognitive disorders it makes it difficult for occupational therapists and other staff to evaluate the capacity of an older adult resident to participate in sexual relationships. The current paper reviews the current literatur...

  4. Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

    2015-07-01

    Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

  5. Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Shindell, Drew T.; Asner, Gregory P.

    2016-08-01

    A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980-2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

  6. Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

  7. IS THE PRICE RIGHT? PRICING FOR LONG TERM PROFITABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Erika NYÁRÁDI

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The way how we choose our pricing strategy has a significant impact on company’s success. Nowadays companies more and more adopt a new way of thinking in pricing, namely pricing for a long term period in order to bring higher profitability, to build an efficient pricing strategy. Marketers have only recently begun to focus seriously on effective pricing. These companies are the so called progressive companies. They have begun doing more than just worrying about pricing. To increase profitability many are abandoning traditional reactive pricing procedures in favor of proactive pricing, making explicit corporate decisions to change their focus to growth in top-line sales to growth in profitability. The long-term implications of price strategies are still under-researched, and managers should be aware of shifts in customer reactions that may result from frequent adoption of certain strategies. The company pricing strategy should be seen in relation to developments in the company variables, internal ones (capital strength, competencies, organizational conditions, efficiency of the work force etc. as well as external ones (customers, competitors, the technological development etc., adopting strategic pricing. In this paper I will present the most effective pricing strategies leading to long term profitability, and also suggest practical conditions for pricing strategies to maximize profit in the long run.

  8. Solar cycle and long term variations of mesospheric ice layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Kiliani, Johannes; Baumgarten, Gerd; Fiedler, Jens; Gerding, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes, frequently called `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) or `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC), are considered to be sensitive indicators of long term changes in the middle atmosphere. We present a summary of long term observations from the ground and from satellites and compare with results from the LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model). LIMA nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and thereby the morphology of ice clouds. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this give s negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. As will be shown, these trends originate in the stratosphere. Solar cycle effects are expected in ice layers due to variations in background temperatures and water paper. We will present results from LIMA regarding solar cycle variations and compare with NLC observations at our lidar stations in Kühlungsborn (54°N) and ALOMAR (69°N), and also with satellite measurements.

  9. Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB. The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.

  10. Natural climate variability in a coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zebiak, S.E.; Cane, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Multi-century simulations with a simplified coupled ocean-atmosphere model are described. These simulations reveal an impressive range of variability on decadal and longer time scales, in addition to the dominant interannual el Nino/Southern Oscillation signal that the model originally was designed to simulate. Based on a very large sample of century-long simulations, it is nonetheless possible to identify distinct model parameter sensitivities that are described here in terms of selected indices. Preliminary experiments motivated by general circulation model results for increasing greenhouse gases suggest a definite sensitivity to model global warming. While these results are not definitive, they strongly suggest that coupled air-sea dynamics figure prominently in global change and must be included in models for reliable predictions

  11. LONG-TERM OUTCOME IN PEDIATRIC TRICHOTILLOMANIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumer, Maya C; Panza, Kaitlyn E; Mulqueen, Jilian M; Jakubovski, Ewgeni; Bloch, Michael H

    2015-10-01

    To examine long-term outcome in children with trichotillomania. We conducted follow-up clinical assessments an average of 2.8 ± 0.8 years after baseline evaluation in 30 of 39 children who previously participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) for pediatric trichotillomania. Our primary outcome was change in hairpulling severity on the Massachusetts General Hospital Hairpulling Hospital Hairpulling Scale (MGH-HPS) between the end of the acute phase and follow-up evaluation. We also obtained secondary measures examining styles of hairpulling, comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as continued treatment utilization. We examined both correlates and predictors of outcome (change in MGH-HPS score) using linear regression. None of the participants continued to take NAC at the time of follow-up assessment. No significant changes in hairpulling severity were reported over the follow-up period. Subjects reported significantly increased anxiety and depressive symptoms but improvement in automatic pulling symptoms. Increased hairpulling symptoms during the follow-up period were associated with increased depression and anxiety symptoms and increased focused pulling. Older age and greater focused pulling at baseline assessment were associated with poor long-term prognosis. Our findings suggest that few children with trichotillomania experience a significant improvement in trichotillomania symptoms if behavioral treatments are inaccessible or have failed to produce adequate symptom relief. Our findings also confirm results of previous cross-sectional studies that suggest an increased risk of depression and anxiety symptoms with age in pediatric trichotillomania. Increased focused pulling and older age among children with trichotillomania symptoms may be associated with poorer long-term prognosis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Long-term EEG in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montavont, A; Kaminska, A; Soufflet, C; Taussig, D

    2015-03-01

    Long-term video-EEG corresponds to a recording ranging from 1 to 24 h or even longer. It is indicated in the following situations: diagnosis of epileptic syndromes or unclassified epilepsy, pre-surgical evaluation for drug-resistant epilepsy, follow-up of epilepsy or in cases of paroxysmal symptoms whose etiology remains uncertain. There are some specificities related to paediatric care: a dedicated pediatric unit; continuous monitoring covering at least a full 24-hour period, especially in the context of pre-surgical evaluation; the requirement of presence by the parents, technician or nurse; and stronger attachment of electrodes (cup electrodes), the number of which is adapted to the age of the child. The chosen duration of the monitoring also depends on the frequency of seizures or paroxysmal events. The polygraphy must be adapted to the type and topography of movements. It is essential to have at least an electrocardiography (ECG) channel, respiratory sensor and electromyography (EMG) on both deltoids. There is no age limit for performing long-term video-EEG even in newborns and infants; nevertheless because of scalp fragility, strict surveillance of the baby's skin condition is required. In the specific context of pre-surgical evaluation, long-term video-EEG must record all types of seizures observed in the child. This monitoring is essential in order to develop hypotheses regarding the seizure onset zone, based on electroclinical correlations, which should be adapted to the child's age and the psychomotor development. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier SAS.

  13. Long-term governance for sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martell, M.

    2007-01-01

    Meritxell Martell spoke of the long-term aspects of radioactive waste management. She pointed out that decision-making processes need to be framed within the context of sustainability, which means that a balance should be sought between scientific considerations, economic aspects and structural conditions. Focusing on structural aspects, Working Group 3 of COWAM-Spain came to the conclusion that the activity of the regulator is a key factor of long-term management. Another finding is that from a sustainability perspective multi-level governance is more effective for coping with the challenges of radioactive waste management than one tier of government-making decisions. The working group also felt that the current Local Information Committees need to evolve towards more institutionalized and legitimized mechanisms for long-term involvement. Ms. Martell introduced a study comparing the efficiency of economic instruments to advance sustainable development in nuclear communities vs. municipalities in mining areas. The study found that funds transferred to nuclear zones had become a means to facilitate local acceptance of nuclear facilities rather than a means to promote socio-economic development. Another finding is that economic instruments are not sufficient guarantees of sustainable development by themselves; additional preconditions include leadership, vision and entrepreneur-ship on the part of community leaders, private or public investments, among others. Finally, Ms. Martell summarised the challenges faced by the Spanish radioactive waste management programme, which include the need for strategic thinking, designing the future in a participatory fashion, and working with local and regional governments and citizens to devise mechanisms for social learning, economic development and environmental protection. (author)

  14. Prediction of long-term behaviour for nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; King, F.; Sunder, S.

    1996-09-01

    The modelling procedures developed for the long-term prediction of the corrosion of used fuel and of titanium and copper nuclear waste containers are described. The corrosion behaviour of these materials changes with time as the conditions within the conceptual disposal vault evolve from an early warm, oxidizing phase to an indefinite period of cool, anoxic conditions. For the two candidate container materials, this evolution of conditions means that the containers will be initially susceptible to localized corrosion but that in the long-term, corrosion should be more general in nature. The propagation of the pitting of Cu and of the crevice corrosion of Ti alloys is modelled using statistical models. General corrosion processes are modelled deterministically. For the fuel, deterministic electrochemical models have been developed to predict the long-term dissolution rate of U0 2 . The corrosion behaviour of materials in the disposal vault can be influenced by reengineering the vault environment. For instance, increasing the areal loading of containers will produce higher vault temperatures resulting in more extensive drying of the porous backfill materials. The initiation of crevice corrosion on Ti may then be delayed, leading to longer container lifetimes. For copper containers, minimizing the amount Of O 2 initially trapped in the pores of the backfill, or adding reducing agents to consume this O 2 faster, will limit the extent of corrosion, permitting a reduction of the container wall thickness necessary for containment. (author). 55 refs., 19 figs

  15. Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Guangyao; Zhang, Jianjun; Liu, Yu; Ning, Zheng; Fu, Bojie; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2017-09-01

    Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961-2011), showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space-time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i) the effect of precipitation and (ii) the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation-sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events) also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

  16. Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961–2011, showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space–time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i the effect of precipitation and (ii the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation–sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

  17. Long term aspects of uranium tailings management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg, K.

    1980-05-01

    This paper sets out the background issues which lead to the development of interim close-out criteria for uranium mill tailings. It places the current state-of-the-art for tailings management into both a national and international perspective and shows why such interim criteria are needed now. There are seven specific criteria proposed dealing with the need to have: passive barriers, limits on surface water recharge, durable systems, long term performance guarantees, limits to access, controls on water and airborne releases and finally to have a knowledge of exposure pathways. This paper is intended to serve as a focus for subsequent discussions with all concerned parties. (auth)

  18. Human Behaviour in Long-Term Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    In this session, Session WP1, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Psychological Support for International Space Station Mission; Psycho-social Training for Man in Space; Study of the Physiological Adaptation of the Crew During A 135-Day Space Simulation; Interpersonal Relationships in Space Simulation, The Long-Term Bed Rest in Head-Down Tilt Position; Psychological Adaptation in Groups of Varying Sizes and Environments; Deviance Among Expeditioners, Defining the Off-Nominal Act in Space and Polar Field Analogs; Getting Effective Sleep in the Space-Station Environment; Human Sleep and Circadian Rhythms are Altered During Spaceflight; and Methodological Approach to Study of Cosmonauts Errors and Its Instrumental Support.

  19. Optimal Long-Term Financial Contracting

    OpenAIRE

    Peter M. DeMarzo; Michael J. Fishman

    2007-01-01

    We develop an agency model of financial contracting. We derive long-term debt, a line of credit, and equity as optimal securities, capturing the debt coupon and maturity; the interest rate and limits on the credit line; inside versus outside equity; dividend policy; and capital structure dynamics. The optimal debt-equity ratio is history dependent, but debt and credit line terms are independent of the amount financed and, in some cases, the severity of the agency problem. In our model, the ag...

  20. Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T

    2008-11-13

    Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.

  1. Long-term environmental behaviour of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechignac, F.; Moberg, L.; Suomela, M.

    2000-04-01

    The radioactive pollution of the environment results from the atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (during the mid-years of twentieth century), from the development of the civilian nuclear industry and from accidents such as Chernobyl. Assessing the resulting radiation that humans might receive requires a good understanding of the long-term behaviour of radionuclides in the environment. This document reports on a joint European effort to advance this understanding, 3 multinational projects have been coordinated: PEACE, EPORA and LANDSCAPE. This report proposes an overview of the results obtained and they are presented in 6 different themes: i) redistribution in the soil-plant system, ii) modelling, iii) countermeasures, iv) runoff v) spatial variations, and vi) dose assessment. The long term behaviour of the radionuclides 137 Cs, 90 Sr and 239-240 Pu is studied through various approaches, these approaches range from in-situ experiments designed to exploit past contamination events to laboratory simulations. A broad scope of different ecosystems ranging from arctic and boreal regions down to mediterranean ones has been considered. (A.C.)

  2. Craniopharyngioma in Children: Long-term Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    STEINBOK, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The survival rate for childhood craniopharyngioma has been improving, with more long-term survivors. Unfortunately it is rare for the patient to be normal, either from the disease itself or from the effects of treatment. Long-term survivors of childhood craniopharyngioma suffer a number of impairments, which include visual loss, endocrinopathy, hypothalamic dysfunction, cerebrovascular problems, neurologic and neurocognitive dysfunction. Pituitary insufficiency is present in almost 100%. Visual and hypothalamic dysfunction is common. There is a high risk of metabolic syndrome and increased risk of cerebrovascular disease, including stroke and Moyamoya syndrome. Cognitive, psychosocial, and emotional problems are prevalent. Finally, there is a higher risk of premature death among survivors of craniopharyngioma, and often this is not from tumor recurrence. It is important to consider craniopharyngioma as a chronic disease. There is no perfect treatment. The treatment has to be tailored to the individual patient to minimize dysfunction caused by tumor and treatments. So “cure” of the tumor does not mean a normal patient. The management of the patient and family needs multidisciplinary evaluation and should involve ophthalmology, endocrinology, neurosurgery, oncology, and psychology. Furthermore, it is also important to address emotional issues and social integration. PMID:26345668

  3. Institutionalization and Organizational Long-term Success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise L. Fleck

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Institutionalization processes have an ambivalent effect on organizational long-term success. Even though th