Analyzing Long-run Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Kingdom of Bahrain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naser Hanan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Since the relation between energy consumption and economic growth is important to design effective energy policies that will promote economic growth, this study investigates the short run dynamics and causality among energy consumption, co2 emissions, oil prices and economic growth in Kingdom of Bahrain. To do so, annual data that covers the period from 1960 till 2015. Empirical work tests for unit root, co-integration relationship using Johansen (1988 approach and then estimate both long and short run dynamics using the vector error correction model (VECM. Results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the suggested variables. Since economic growth has a predictive power to estimate the energy demand of Kingdom of Bahrain, it is recommended that the government of Bahrain and policy designers shed the light on energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth in order to move towards sustainability.

Analyzing Long-run Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Kingdom of Bahrain

Science.gov (United States)

Naser, Hanan

2017-11-01

Since the relation between energy consumption and economic growth is important to design effective energy policies that will promote economic growth, this study investigates the short run dynamics and causality among energy consumption, co2 emissions, oil prices and economic growth in Kingdom of Bahrain. To do so, annual data that covers the period from 1960 till 2015. Empirical work tests for unit root, co-integration relationship using Johansen (1988) approach and then estimate both long and short run dynamics using the vector error correction model (VECM). Results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the suggested variables. Since economic growth has a predictive power to estimate the energy demand of Kingdom of Bahrain, it is recommended that the government of Bahrain and policy designers shed the light on energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth in order to move towards sustainability.

Life Insurance Contribution, Insurance Development and Economic Growth in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Ying

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Under L-type economy, remodelling the growth power in the medium and long term is essential. The insurance industry during the 13th Five-year Plan period has been given a heavy expectation on promoting economic quality and upgrading economic efficiency, so it will try to accelerate its innovation and development process which serves national needs, market demand and people's requirements. Referring to the previous researches of Solow and Zhang and measuring Capital Stock and Total Factor Productivity independently, the paper analyses the inherent correlation between insurance (including life insurance and non-life insurance and economic growth, reveals the contribution law of the insurance development in economic growth in the short and long term from both economic scale and quality respectively. It also shows enlightenments on policy decision for insurance industry, thus helps economic stability under the downturn periods.

Tapering off benzodiazepines in long-term users : an economic evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oude Voshaar, Richard C; Krabbe, Paul F M; Gorgels, Wim J M J; Adang, Eddy M M; van Balkom, Anton J L M; van de Lisdonk, Eloy H; Zitman, Frans G

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: Discontinuation of benzodiazepine usage has never been evaluated in economic terms. This study aimed to compare the relative costs and outcomes of tapering off long-term benzodiazepine use combined with group cognitive behavioural therapy (TO+CBT), tapering off alone (TOA) and usual

The estimation of long-run relationship between Serbian and German economic growth

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Nikolić Ivan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Germany has always had an essential influence on Serbia's economic development. Today, Germany is Europe's economic and political superstar so this is even more pronounced. Hence, the aim of this paper is to explore the fundamental causal relationship between German and Serbian economy. In doing so, after the introductory part, where we emphasized interconnection in terms of investment, foreign trade, employment, new technologies etc., we are extending our study using quarterly 2004q1-2015q2 GDP data of both Serbia and Germany to estimate the Vector Error Correction model (VECM. The results suggest that there is co-integration between Serbia's and Germany's economic growth. The statistically significant negative coefficient on êt-1 indicates that Serbian GDP responds to a temporary disequilibrium between the Germany and Serbia. On the other hand, Germany does not appear to respond to a disequilibrium between the two economies; the t-ratio on êt-1 is statistically insignificant. These results support the idea that economic conditions in Serbia depend on those in Germany incomparably more than conditions in Germany depend on Serbia. Despite a solid long-term impact, there is not short run causality running from GerGDP to SrbGDP.

Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

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Sandip Sarker

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

Going Solar Yields Long-Term Economical, Educational Benefits

Science.gov (United States)

von Moos, Brian

2009-01-01

Going solar is not an easy decision, but a long-term investment with a potentially substantial up-front cost. While some schools have enough capital in reserve, can raise bond money, or can solicit sufficient donations, many schools rely on creative financial programs to make a solar energy system economically feasible. Thinking about going solar…

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth (Fact Sheet)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

2013-11-01

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.

Assessment of the interactions between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharges using co-integration analysis: a case study for China's Hunan Province.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Qiang; Gao, Yang; Hu, Dan; Tan, Hong; Wang, Tianxiang

2011-07-01

We have investigated the interactions between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharge from 1978 to 2007 in China's Hunan Province using co-integration theory and an error-correction model. Two main economic growth indicators and four representative industrial wastewater pollutants were selected to demonstrate the interaction mechanism. We found a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the discharge of industrial pollutants in wastewater between 1978 and 2007 in Hunan Province. The error-correction mechanism prevented the variable expansion for long-term relationship at quantity and scale, and the size of the error-correction parameters reflected short-term adjustments that deviate from the long-term equilibrium. When economic growth changes within a short term, the discharge of pollutants will constrain growth because the values of the parameters in the short-term equation are smaller than those in the long-term co-integrated regression equation, indicating that a remarkable long-term influence of economic growth on the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants and that increasing pollutant discharge constrained economic growth. Economic growth is the main driving factor that affects the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants in Hunan Province. On the other hand, the discharge constrains economic growth by producing external pressure on growth, although this feedback mechanism has a lag effect. Economic growth plays an important role in explaining the predicted decomposition of the variance in the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants, but this discharge contributes less to predictions of the variations in economic growth.

BASEL III: long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations

OpenAIRE

Paolo Angelini; Laurent Clerc; Vasco Cúrdia; Leonardo Gambacorta; Andrea Gerali; Alberto Locarno; Roberto Motto; Werner Roeger; Skander J. van den Heuvel; Jan Vlcek

2011-01-01

We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions: 1) What is the impact of the reform on longterm economic performance? 2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? 3) What is the impact of the adoption of countercyclical capital buffers on economic fluctuations? The main results are the following: 1) Each percentage point increase in the capital ratio causes a median 0.09 percent decline in the ...

A critical realist perspective on decoupling negative environmental impacts from housing sector growth and economic growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xue, Jin

2012-01-01

The question that motivates this article has been a matter of dispute: Is it possible to combine perpetual economic growth and longterm environmental sustainability based on the premise that economic growth can be fully decoupled from negative environmental impacts? The article addresses...... this question from the position of critical realism. An empirical study focusing on the housing sector is conducted, indicating that housing stock growth and economic growth have been, at best, weakly decoupled from environmental impacts. In the long run, it seems implausible that the degree of decoupling can...... be increased at a rate sufficient to compensate for continual growth in the volume of housing stock. A further elaboration of the topic at an ontological level leads to the conclusion that continual economic growth and long-term environmental sustainability can hardly be combined....

Short- and long-run causality between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence across regions in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrerias, M.J.; Joyeux, R.; Girardin, E.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We investigate the relationship between energy and economic growth across Chinese regions. • We examine short- and long-run causality. • We use panel cointegration techniques. • We find that causality runs in the long-run from economic growth to energy consumption from 1999 to 2009. • We conclude that policies for conserving energy can be adopted without interrupting the path of growth. - Abstract: The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has created a large body of research in the energy-economics literature. In this paper, we investigate such a relation in the case of Chinese regions from 1995 to 2009. The majority of previous studies have ignored the regional dimension and the cross-sectional dependence of provinces. Besides, different energy policies adopted by the government have influenced energy intensity over time, showing improvement in the 1990s and deterioration from 2000 onwards. Thus, it is necessary to examine these two periods separately. Moreover, a detailed disaggregation of total energy consumption into electricity, coal, coke, and crude oil consumption and its linkage with economic growth may provide new insights for the design of energy policy across Chinese regions. We use panel techniques to test the direction of the causality in the long- and short-run between these different types of energy consumption and economic growth. Our results are mixed from 1995 to 2009 due the aforementioned break around 1999. However, in all cases our estimations provide empirical evidence that from 1999 to 2009 there is unidirectional causation from economic growth to energy consumption in the long-run. Therefore, energy-saving policies can be adopted without interrupting the path of growth

Clean energy, non-clean energy, and economic growth in the MIST countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pao, Hsiao-Tien; Li, Yi-Ying; Hsin-Chia Fu

2014-01-01

This paper explores the causal relationship between clean (renewable/nuclear) and non-clean energy consumption and economic growth in emerging economies of the MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey) countries. The panel co-integration tests reveal that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among GDP, capital formation, labor force, renewable/nuclear, and fossil fuel energy consumption. The panel causality results indicate that (1) there is a positive unidirectional short-run causality from fossil fuel energy consumption to economic growth with a bidirectional long-run causality; (2) there is a unidirectional long-run causality from renewable energy consumption to economic growth with positive bidirectional short-run causality, and a long-run causality from renewable to fossil fuel energy consumption with negative short-run feedback effects; and (3) there is a bidirectional long-run causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth and a long-run causality from fossil fuel energy consumption to nuclear energy consumption with positive short-run feedback effects. These suggest that MIST countries should be energy-dependent economies and that energy conservation policies may depress their economic development. However, developing renewable and nuclear energy is a viable solution for addressing energy security and climate change issues, and creating clean and fossil fuel energy partnerships could enhance a sustainable energy economy. - Highlights: • This novel study can provide more robust bases to strengthen sustainable energy policy settings. • Fossil fuel/nuclear energy use and economic growth is bidirectional causality. • Renewable energy consumption long term causes economic growth. • There is substitutability between renewable and fossil fuel energy. • Clean and non-clean energy partnerships can achieve a sustainable energy economy

Review of capital investment in economic growth cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Shaffie, Siti Salihah; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Mohamad, Daud

2016-11-01

The study of linkages of macroeconomics factors is prominent in order to understand how the economic cycle affects one another. These factors include interest rate, growth rate, saving and capital investment which are mutually correlated to stabilize the GDP. Part of this study, it will look upon the impact of investment which emphasize the efficiency of capital investment to the economic growth. Capital investment is one investment appraisal that gives impact to the economic growth. It is a long term investment and involve with large amount of capital to incorporate the development of private and public capital investment.

Cointegration and Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Case of Kyrgyzstan

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Raziye ABDIYEVA

2017-01-01

Full Text Available According to Wagner’s law there is unidirectional relationship from economic growth to public expenditure. Wagner’s states that increase of national income leads to faster growth of public expenditure. In other words, out of economic and social development in the country, people will demand more public goods and it will increase public expenditure at a faster rate than national income. This study is analyzing the long term and causality relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Kyrgyzstan and tests the validity of Wagner's law in Kyrgyz economy by using an ARDL and Error Correction models over the period 1995 to 2014. Empirical results showed that there is an unidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and public expenditure in long term. Empirical evidence is support the validity of Wagner’s law in Kyrgyz economy.

Exploration of life experiences of positive growth in long-term childhood cancer survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yoonjung

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to explore experiences of positive growth in long-term childhood cancer survivors, from their perspective. Fifteen long-term survivors of childhood cancer provided descriptions of their experiences. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews and the analysis was based on Giorgi's phenomenological research method. The analysis of positive growth experienced by long-term childhood cancer survivors revealed three themes: self-directed life, normalcy in life, and inner maturity. Long-term survivors defined positive growth as a successful transition to a self-satisfactory life based on motivation acquired through their cancer experience and on subjective goal-setting, as well as becoming cancer-free and living a normal life within society. They seemed to have acquired optimistic, flexible, active attitudes toward life while demonstrating profound gratefulness and consideration of people around them, as well as prudent approaches to health. The findings of this study verified that long-term survivors of childhood cancer have grown positively due to their negative past experience. We expect these findings to contribute to the development of programs that promote positive growth in long-term childhood cancer survivors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High speed diesel consumption and economic growth in India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ghosh, Sajal [Management Development Institute (MDI), Gurgaon 122001 (India)

2010-04-15

This study probes the long-term equilibrium relationship among High Speed Diesel (HSD) consumption, real GDP and price of HSD in India using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration for the time span 1972-1973 to 2005-2006. Empirical results reveal that the series are cointegrated and long term income elasticity for HSD demand in India is 1.27 while that for short-run is 0.46. Both long-run and short-run price elasticities are found to be statistically insignificant. The study also establishes a short-run bi-directional causality between economic growth and HSD consumption and the existence of a long-run unidirectional causality running from economic growth to HSD consumption. Finally, a set of policy prescriptions have been suggested to reduce the consumption of HSD, which should have no adverse impact on economy in the long-run. (author)

Energy efficiency, sustainability and economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayres, Robert U.; Turton, Hal; Casten, Tom

2007-01-01

This paper explores two linked theses related to the role energy in economic development, and potential sources of increased energy efficiency for continued growth with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first thesis is that, while reduced GHG emissions are essential for long-term global sustainability, the usual policy recommendation of increasing energy costs by introducing a carbon tax may be relatively ineffective under current market structures and have an unnecessarily adverse impact on economic growth. Our second thesis is that there exists a practical near-term strategy for reducing GHG emissions while simultaneously encouraging continued technology-driven economic growth. Moreover, this strategy does not require radical new technologies, but rather improved regulation or-more precisely-better deregulation of the electric power sector. In respect to the first of our two theses, this paper addresses a deficiency in neoclassical economic growth theory, in which growth is assumed to be automatic, inevitable and cost-free. We challenge both the assumption that growth will continue in the future at essentially the same rate ('the trend') as it has in the past, and the corollary that our children's children will inevitably be richer and better able to afford the cost of repairing the environmental damages caused by current generations [Simon et al., The state of humanity. Cambridge MA: Blackwell Publishers Ltd.; 1995

Environmental Disaster and Economic Change: Do tropical cyclones have permanent effects on economic growth and structure?

Science.gov (United States)

Jina, A.; von der Goltz, J.; Hsiang, S. M.

2011-12-01

Natural disasters have important, often devastating, effects upon economic growth and well-being. Due to this, disasters have become an active area of recent research and policy attention. However, much of this research has been narrowly focused, relying on anecdotal evidence and aggregated data to support conclusions about disaster impacts in the short-term. Employing a new global data set of tropical cyclone exposure from 1960 to 2008, we investigate in greater detail whether permanent changes in economic performance and structure can result from these extreme events in some cases. Our macro-economic analyses use the World Development Indicator dataset and have shown promising results: there are dramatic long-term economic transformations associated with tropical cyclones across a number of countries and industries. This effect is most clearly seen in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and some countries in Latin America, where negative changes in long-term growth trends are observed in the years following a large tropical cyclone. In many economies with a high exposure to tropical cyclone damage, there are noticeable structural changes within the economy. The impacts of disasters might be expressed through various economic and social channels, through direct loss of lives and infrastructure damage; for instance, the destruction of infrastructure such as ports may damage export opportunities where replacement capital is not readily available. These structural changes may have far-reaching implications for economic growth and welfare. Larger nations subjected to the impacts of tropical cyclones are thought to be able to relocate economically important activities that are damaged by cyclones, and so long-term trend changes are not observed, even for events that cause a large immediate decrease in national productivity. By investigating in a more rigorous fashion the hypothesis that the environment triggers these permanent economic changes, our work has

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahamad, Mazbahul Golam, E-mail: mg.ahamad@gmail.com [Research Division, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), House: 40C, Road: 11, Dhanmondi, Dhaka 1209 (Bangladesh); Islam, A.K.M. Nazrul, E-mail: nazrul2002@yahoo.com [Research Division, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), House: 40C, Road: 11, Dhanmondi, Dhaka 1209 (Bangladesh)

2011-10-15

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971-2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector. - Highlights: > Short-run causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth. > Positive SR causality explains electricity generation directly affects economic growth. > For long run, causality runs from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. > Joint causality implies the same as in short-run.

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Revisited evidences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahamad, Mazbahul Golam; Islam, A.K.M. Nazrul

2011-01-01

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971-2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector. - Highlights: → Short-run causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth. → Positive SR causality explains electricity generation directly affects economic growth. → For long run, causality runs from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. → Joint causality implies the same as in short-run.

Analysing the long-run relationship among oil market, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: An evidence from emerging economies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naser, Hanan

2015-01-01

The primary objectives of this paper is to scrutinize the long-run relationship and the causal linkage between oil consumption, nuclear energy consumption, oil prices and economic growth. For this purpose, Johansen cointegration technique is applied using time series data for four emerging economies: Russia, China, South Korea and India, over the period from 1965 to 2010. Johansen cointegration results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the proposed variables in each country. Exclusion tests show that both energy sources enter the cointegration space significantly (except for Russia), which suggests that energy has a long-run impact on economic growth. Results of the causal linkage between the variables point that energy consumption (i.e., oil or nuclear) has either a predictive power for economic growth, or a feedback impact between with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in all countries. Hence, energy conservation policies might harmful negative consequences on the growth of economic for this group of countries. - Highlights: • There is a long-run relationship among oil market, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth. • Countries are energy dependent in stimulating economic growth. • There is feedback impact between oil consumption and economic growth in three out of four countries. • An increase in oil prices has drawbacks on emerging economies growth

Long term economic relationships from cointegration maps

Science.gov (United States)

Vicente, Renato; Pereira, Carlos de B.; Leite, Vitor B. P.; Caticha, Nestor

2007-07-01

We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the sorting points into neighborhoods (SPIN) technique, which has been previously used to analyze large data sets from DNA arrays. We exemplify the technique in three data sets: US interest rates (USIR), monthly inflation rates and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates.

The effect of long and short time oil shocks on economic growth in Iran

OpenAIRE

Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalae; Sanaz Mohammadi

2012-01-01

Oil is one of the strategic good so that price fluctuations and shocks of it have major effects on economic growth and recession in depended countries to revenues of it. In this study, it is tried that the effect of oil price shocks investigated in two types (short and long time) on Economic growth in Iran. Its Period is from 1974 to 2006. According it, oil price uncertainty is quantized by GARCH model and is determined the effects of oil price shocks on economic growth in Iran during a short...

WOMEN'S AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE AND LONG-TERM ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT IN EGYPT.

Science.gov (United States)

Yount, Kathryn M; Crandall, AliceAnn; Cheong, Yuk Fai

2018-02-01

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5 calls on nations to promote gender equality and to empower women and girls. SDG5 also recognizes the value of women's economic empowerment, entailing equal rights to economic resources and full participation at all levels in economic decisions. Also according to SDG5, eliminating harmful practices-such as child marriage before age 18-is a prerequisite for women's economic empowerment. Using national data for 4,129 married women 15-43 years who took part in the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS 1998-2012), we performed autoregressive, cross-lagged panel analyses to assess whether women's first marriage in adulthood (at 18 years or older, as reported in 2006), was positively associated with their long-term post-marital economic empowerment, measured as their engagement in market work and latent family economic agency in 2012. Women's first marriage in adulthood had positive unadjusted associations with their market work and family economic agency in 2012. These associations persisted after accounting for market work and family economic agency in 2006, pre-marital resources for empowerment, and cumulative fertility. Policies to discourage child marriage may show promise to enhance women's long-term post-marital economic empowerment.

Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Willem Vanlaer

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Although the recent global financial crisis has stimulated a vast amount of research on the impact of public debt on economic growth and also increasingly on the role of private credit, the total levels of indebtedness of an economy have largely been ignored. This paper studies the impact of the total level of and increases in debt-to-GDP on economic growth for 26 developed countries in the short, medium and longer term. We analyse whether we can predict the future level of growth, simply by looking at the total level of debt, or increases in that debt level. We find that there is a negative correlation between high levels of debt and short term economic growth, but that this effect tapers in the medium and long term. Similarly, we find that rapid debt accumulation is negatively related to economic growth over the short term, the impact is less pronounced over the medium term and is non-existent over the long term.

The Dynamic Effects of Entrepreneurship on Regional Economic Growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Matejovsky, Lukas; Mohapatra, Sandeep; Steiner, Bodo

2014-01-01

This study explores the temporal pattern of income disparity for Canadian provinces in two estimation steps. First, an econometric growth regression model is applied to identify the impact of entrepreneurship on regional economic growth. The estimation results suggest that entrepreneurship......, measured in terms of the selfemployment rate, plays a pivotal role in determining regional development in Canada. Second, a dynamic vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed to predict the long-run regional growth effects that result from policy shocks affecting entrepreneurship. Compared to other...... growth drivers, entrepreneurship is found to have more pronounced and long-term stimulative effects on regional development for the period of 1987 to 2007...

Economic growth and intangible capitals: Europe versus Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Navarro José-Luis Alfaro

2014-01-01

Full Text Available At present, the international growth model includes important restrictions about the consideration of GDP as a unique tool for measurement. In this sense, taking into consideration the wealth of a country, we must add intangibles such as human development, country image, employment conditions, environmental, innovation, public sector efficiency, and synergies to the variable production, which is defined as national intellectual capital. In this paper, we use a mathematical model of intellectual capital to determine, in monetary terms, the intangible elements that have a greater impact on long-term economic development in European and Asian countries. We have the main limitation of available information and we provide objective results using statistical method. By identifying these components, countries will be able to redirect their policies toward achieving sustainable long-term growth. The results show that the long-term growth of both continents are strongly dependent on the skills of their human resources, but register differences in structural factors such as trade, innovation, or environment.

Examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for India: A multivariate cointegration approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Sajal

2010-01-01

The study probes cointegration and causality between carbon emissions and economic growth for India using ARDL bounds testing approach complemented by Johansen-Juselius maximum likelihood procedure in a multivariate framework by incorporating energy supply, investment and employment for time span 1971-2006. The study fails to establish long-run equilibrium relationship and long term causality between carbon emissions and economic growth; however, there exists a bi-directional short-run causality between the two. Hence, in the short-run, any effort to reduce carbon emissions could lead to a fall in the national income. This study also establishes unidirectional short-run causality running from economic growth to energy supply and energy supply to carbon emissions. The absence of causality running from energy supply to economic growth implies that in India, energy conservation and energy efficiency measures can be implemented to minimize the wastage of energy across value chain. Such measures would narrow energy demand-supply gap. Absence of long-run causality between carbon emissions and economic growth implies that in the long-run, focus should be given on harnessing energy from clean sources to curb carbon emissions, which would not affect the country's economic growth.

The contribution of public capital towards economic growth: A KwaZulu-Natal case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clive E. Coetzee

2017-04-01

Aim: The way provincial or regional growth depends on infrastructure is investigated in this article and it is applied to data from KwaZulu-Natal province, as an illustration. Setting: This study investigates the extent to which infrastructure in KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa leads towards economic growth of the province. Methods: From a theoretical framework, this article develops an endogenous growth model, which investigates the association between provincial public capital stock expenditure and economic growth. Data series for public capital formation are first developed to apply in this study and others to follow. Econometric techniques are then employed, using quarterly data between 2001 and 2015, to assess the set hypothesis that growth in expenditure on public capital leads to national economic growth. Results: The empirical results support the argument of a positive relationship between provincial capital stock and economic growth in the long-term. The findings also suggests that the long-term causality or effect fades over time, albeit slowly. Conclusion: The nature and statistical significance of the long-term equilibrium relationship seems to be ambiguous at best. Some evidence of an equilibrium relationship in the short-term was, however, also observed. In conclusion, there also seems to be some causality between provincial capital stock and provincial gross domestic product in the short-run.

Trends in economic growth, poverty and energy in Colombia: long-run and short-run effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cotte Poveda, Alexander [University of Goettingen, Department of Economics, Goettingen (Germany); University of La Salle, Faculty of Accounting and Administration, Bogota (Colombia); Pardo Martinez, Clara Ines [Royal Institute of Technology, KTH, Energy and Climate Studies, Department of Energy Technology, Stockholm (Sweden); University of La Salle, Faculty of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia)

2011-11-15

This research analyses the long run and short run relationships among economic growth, poverty and energy using the Colombian case. In this study, we use the time-series methodologies. The results regarding the relationship among economic growth, poverty and energy show that increases in gross domestic product and energy supply per capita should lead a decrease of poverty, which should demonstrate that access to modern and adequate energy services help to decrease poverty and to increase economic growth. Moreover, the improvements in energy efficiency have contributed to increase economic growth from an approach of sustainable development. These results are important for the adequate design, formulation and application of policies and strategies that encourage a better energy use to improve economic growth and decrease poverty, especially in developing countries. (orig.)

THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: NEW EVIDENCE FROM MALAYSIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayef Bakari

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between domestic investment and economic growth in Malaysia. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1960 and 2015 was tested by using Correlation analysis, Johansen co-integration analysis of Vector Error Correction Model and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the result of the analysis, it was determined that there is a positive effect of domestic investment, exports and labors on economic growth in the long run term, however, there is no  relationship between domestic investment and economic growth in the short run term. These results provide en evidence that domestic investment, exports and labors are seen as a source of economic growth in Malaysia

Earthquakes and economic growth

OpenAIRE

Fisker, Peter Simonsen

2012-01-01

This study explores the economic consequences of earthquakes. In particular, it is investigated how exposure to earthquakes affects economic growth both across and within countries. The key result of the empirical analysis is that while there are no observable effects at the country level, earthquake exposure significantly decreases 5-year economic growth at the local level. Areas at lower stages of economic development suffer harder in terms of economic growth than richer areas. In addition,...

Economic growth and business cycles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Canton, E.J.F.

1997-01-01

This thesis contains five essays on economic growth and business cycles. The main focus is on the interaction between economic growth and the cycle: is cyclical variability good or bad for the long-run rate of economic growth? The introduction aims to provide some empirical evidence for an

House Price, House Quality and Economic Growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Vries, P.; Boelhouwer, P.J.

2010-01-01

The literature on housing markets suggest that periods of economic growth are characterised by a demand for better housing quality and increasing prices. The basic principles of the theory are that the short-run price fluctuations occur due to market imperfection, while over the long term, causality

Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Evidences from Asia-4 Countries

OpenAIRE

Azam, Muhammad; Haseeb, Muhammad; Samsi, Aznita binti; Raji, Jimoh Olajide

2016-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to examine the role of stock markets in economic growth for four Asian countries namely Bangladesh, India, China and Singapore. Annual time series cross country data over the period 1991 to 2012 and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approaches an analytical technique are used. Our results suggest that there is long-term cointegration among economic growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), stock market development and inflation. The long-ter...

Handling geological and economic uncertainties in balancing short-term and long-term objectives in waterflooding optimization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Siraj, M.M.; Van Den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

2017-01-01

Model-based economic optimization of oil production has a significant scope to increase financial life-cycle performance. The net-present-value (NPV) objective in this optimization, because of its nature, focuses on long-term gains, whereas short-term production is not explicitly addressed. At the

Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-C. MORENO-BRID

1998-12-01

Full Text Available An analytical model for balance-of-payment constraints is developed to analyse the economic crisis which swept the entire Mexican region during the early 1980s. Analytical results suggest that a modification of the long-term income multipliers of the proposed framework may be effected by implementing a long-term constant ratio of the current account to nominal gross domestic product. It is further shown that Mexico's economic instability was largely caused by the inadequacy of foreign exchange resources necessary in driving domestic growth.

Resuming growth in Latin America: short and long term policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julio Lopez G.

2008-09-01

Full Text Available The authors of this paper assert that the paralysis of the state generated by the crises of the 1970s and 1980s deprived the economies of the region of an important lever to resume and sustain growth. They thus maintain that to overcome stagnation it will be necessary to reconstruct the state's capacity to implement pro-growth policies. Following Keynes and Kalecki's ideas, but also classical development economists, the authors argue, first, that short-term macroeconomic policies, to reduce unemployment and to increase the degree of capacity utilization, should be used to promote the generation of profits to firms and to wake up entrepreneurs' animal spirits. Short-term expansionary policies should be coupled with measures to improve competitiveness and avoid balance of payments problems. They also claim that alternatives to the liberal programme will fail unless a pro-growth strategy is adopted which includes both short- and long-term policies. They thus propose that long-term policies must complete the package, signaling: a sustained increases of effective demand in the future; and b investment priorities to ensure that capacities will be created in strategic sectors and branches of the economy.

Long run economic growth and tourism: Inferring from Uruguay

OpenAIRE

Brida, Juan Gabriel; Lionetti, Stefania; Risso, Wiston Adrian

2009-01-01

Argentina is the principal source of tourism in Uruguay. This paper analyzes the effects in the long run of tourism from Argentina on the economic growth of Uruguay. Using quarterly data from 1987.I to 2006.IV, the study uses co-integration analysis and shows the existence of one cointegrated vector among Uruguayan real per capita GDP, Argentinean tourism expenditure, and real exchange rate between Uruguay and Argentina, and tests that the causality relationship positively goes in one way fro...

Long-term salt stress responsive growth, carbohydrate metabolism ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We investigated the long-term responses of tobacco tissues to salt stress, with a particular interest for growth parameters, proline (Pro) accumulation, and carbohydrate metabolism. Exposure of 17-day-old tobacco plants to 0.2 M NaCl was followed by a higher decrease in dry matter in roots than shoots with a decrease of ...

EFFECTS OF THE ECONOMIC FREEDOMS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM THE EU AND COMCEC COUNTRIES (1996-2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HALİL İBRAHİM AYDIN

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this research, the effects of the economic freedoms on the economic growth for EU and COMCEC countries at different development/income level are econometrically analyzed via panel data analysis for the period of 1996- 2014 by being considered the improvement of economic growth theories for the key determinants of economic growth. From this aspect, it is aimed at this research that to evaluate the effects of the economic freedoms on the long termed economic growth performances and income level differences of EU and COMCEC countries which have different statuses in terms of economic freedoms and income level indicators. It is determined at the end of the study that the economic freedoms have a positive and statistically significant effect on the economic growth of EU countries in investigation period, on the other hand, these freedoms have not any effect on the economic growth of COMCEC countries. Moreover, the existence of a one-way causality relation operates from economic freedoms to the economic growth in EU countries is specified while there is any causality link found between these freedoms and the economic growth for the countries in COMCEC group. All these results indicate that also the economic freedoms besides the physical human capital accumulation, in other words, whether the EU and COMCEC countries have a market economy adopts outward-oriented liberal fiscal policies plays a major role in differentiating the income levels or the economic growth performances.

A conceptual framework for a long-term economic model for the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagy, Balázs; Setyawan, Juliana; Coghill, David; Soroncz-Szabó, Tamás; Kaló, Zoltán; Doshi, Jalpa A

2017-06-01

Models incorporating long-term outcomes (LTOs) are not available to assess the health economic impact of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Develop a conceptual modelling framework capable of assessing long-term economic impact of ADHD therapies. Literature was reviewed; a conceptual structure for the long-term model was outlined with attention to disease characteristics and potential impact of treatment strategies. The proposed model has four layers: i) multi-state short-term framework to differentiate between ADHD treatments; ii) multiple states being merged into three core health states associated with LTOs; iii) series of sub-models in which particular LTOs are depicted; iv) outcomes collected to be either used directly for economic analyses or translated into other relevant measures. This conceptual model provides a framework to assess relationships between short- and long-term outcomes of the disease and its treatment, and to estimate the economic impact of ADHD treatments throughout the course of the disease.

Unemployment and long-run economic growth: The role of income inequality and urbanisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Castells-Quintana

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Two of the most dramatic aspects of the current economic crisis are with no doubt the experience of high and persistent rates of unemployment and the accelerated pace at which inequalities increase. But high and persistent levels of unemployment and increasing inequality are more than a consequence of scarcer opportunities related to the crisis; they can also be negative determinants for subsequent long-run economic growth. In this work, we consider unemployment and income inequality, and interactions between both, as possible determinants of longrun growth by using cross-sectional international data. Our results suggest that: 1 while initial high unemployment rates do not seem to be statistically significant to explain long-run growth, they do have a negative and significant effect when interacting with increases in inequality. 2 When we differentiate based on levels of urbanization, increasing inequality harms growth in countries with high levels of urbanization, as well as in countries with low levels of urbanization in which there is high and persistent unemployment.

Public Expenditures and Economic Growth: Was Wagner Right? Evidence from Turkey

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Gizem Uzuner

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Going by Adolph Wagner’s theory, increased in public expenditure would have a significant influence growth. However, the endogenous growth theories posit that public sector either has direct or indirect impacts on economic growth. It is on this premise, we seek to examine and validate Wagner’s theory on the impact of current, investment and transfer expenditures on economic growth over the periods 1975-2014 for Turkey, using Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test. Findings confirm Wagner’s law through the existence of a long term relationship between the variables, while public expenditures display a significant positive impact on economic growth.

Space ventures and society long-term perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, W. M.

1985-01-01

A futuristic evaluation of mankind's potential long term future in space is presented. Progress in space will not be inhibited by shortages of the Earth's physical resources, since long term economic growth will be focused on ways to constrain industrial productivity by changing social values, management styles, or government competence. Future technological progress is likely to accelerate with an emphasis on international cooperation, making possible such large joint projects as lunar colonies or space stations on Mars. The long term future in space looks exceedingly bright even in relatively pessimistic scenarios. The principal driving forces will be technological progress, commercial and public-oriented satellites, space industrialization, space travel, and eventually space colonization.

The dynamic relationship between health expenditure and economic growth: is the health-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?

Science.gov (United States)

Atilgan, Emre; Kilic, Dilek; Ertugrul, Hasan Murat

2017-06-01

The well-known health-led growth hypothesis claims a positive correlation between health expenditure and economic growth. The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the health-led growth hypothesis for the Turkish economy. The bound test approach, autoregressive-distributed lag approach (ARDL) and Kalman filter modeling are employed for the 1975-2013 period to examine the co-integration relationship between economic growth and health expenditure. The ARDL model is employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between health expenditure and economic growth. The results show that a 1 % increase in per-capita health expenditure will lead to a 0.434 % increase in per-capita gross domestic product. These findings are also supported by the Kalman filter model's results. Our findings show that the health-led growth hypothesis is supported for Turkey.

Gender Equality and Economic Growth in Brazil : A Long-run Analysis

OpenAIRE

Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Canuto, Otaviano

2013-01-01

This paper studies the long-run impact of policies aimed at fostering gender equality on economic growth in Brazil. The first part provides a brief review of gender issues in the country. The second part presents a gender-based, three-period OLG model that accounts for women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, human capital accumulation, and home production. Bargaining be...

The causal relationship between energy resources and economic growth in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pao, Hsiao-Tien; Fu, Hsin-Chia

2013-01-01

This study investigates the causal relationship between clean and non-clean energy consumption and economic growth in Brazil over the period of 1980–2009. Clean energy consumption at aggregated level of total renewable energy consumption and disaggregated levels of hydroelectric, new renewables, and nuclear energy consumption are tested within a production function framework. A cointegration test reveals a long-term equilibrium relationship between real output, capital, labor, and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption at aggregated level, and a long-term equilibrium relationship between real output, capital, labor, and hydroelectric/new renewables/nuclear and fossil fuel energy consumption at disaggregated level. The capital, labor, and new renewables elasticities of real output are positive and statistically significant, other energy consumption item's elasticities are insignificant. The results from error correction model reveal the interdependencies between new renewables, nuclear, fossil fuel, and total non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth, the unidirectional causality from hydroelectric/total renewable consumption to economic growth, the substitutability between new renewables and fossil fuel consumption, and the substitutability between new renewables and nuclear energy consumption. Additionally, nuclear and new renewables energy consumption responds to bring the system back to equilibrium. Overall, aggregated analysis may obscure the relationship between different types of clean energy consumption and economic growth. - Highlights: • We model three kinds of clean energy and non-clean energy consumption and real GDP. • There is fossil fuel consumption–economic growth bidirectional causality. • There is new renewables consumption–economic growth bidirectional causality. • There is nuclear energy consumption–economic growth bidirectional causality. • Substitutability exists for new renewables–fossil fuel or new

ECONOMIC GROWTH – COSTS AND DEVELOPMENT DISCREPANCES

OpenAIRE

Ion Bucur

2007-01-01

The economic growth shows an ascending tendency of the economic evolution over a long period of time, having favorable social and economic effects. Each economic growth factor acts simultaneous trough three dimensions.

OECD/NEA Study on the Economics of Long Term Operation of NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lokhov, Alexey; Cameron, Ron

2012-01-01

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) established the Ad Hoc expert group on the Economics of Long-term Operation (LTO) of Nuclear Power Plants. The primary aim of this group is to collect and analyse technical and economic data on the upgrade and lifetime extension experience in OECD countries, and to assess the likely applications for future extensions. This paper describes the key elements of the methodology of economic assessment of LTO and initial findings for selected NEA member countries. (author)

CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Fredrik N.G.; Karpestam, Peter

2013-01-01

We analyze the short-term and the long-term determinants of energy intensity, carbon intensity and scale effects for eight developed economies and two emerging economies from 1973 to 2007. Our results show that there is a difference between the short-term and the long-term results and that climate policy are more likely to affect emission over the long-term than over the short-term. Climate policies should therefore be aimed at a time horizon of at least 8 years and year-on-year changes in emissions contains little information about the trend path of emissions. In the long-run capital accumulation is the main driver of emissions. Productivity growth reduces the energy intensity while the real oil price reduces both the energy intensity and the carbon intensity. The real oil price effect suggests that a global carbon tax is an important policy tool to reduce emissions, but our results also suggest that a carbon tax is likely to be insufficient decouple emission from economic growth. Such a decoupling is likely to require a structural transformation of the economy. The key policy challenge is thus to build new economic structures where investments in green technologies are more profitable. - Highlights: • We model determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity. • Using band spectrum regressions, we separate between short and long run effects. • Different economic variables affect emission in the short and long run. • CO 2 reducing policies should have a long run horizon of (at least 8 years). • A low carbon society requires a structural transformation of the economy

Sustainable Economic Growth: a Perspective for Macedonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sevil Rexhepi

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Retrospective analysis shows that since 1990’s, ex-socialist economies were in transition. This process was multidimensional and had deep roots. In most transition economies, output (GDP is determined by the availability of labour, capital and their productivity (TFP. Hence, these indicators are not generating the business cycles, which is typical for market economies in the long-term. At this point, it is vital to understand the reasons of low-level of capital accumulation in transition economies in order to find opportunities to make better use of physical, human and social capital. Furthermore, it is observed that in these economies, institutions needed to be re-established or the rules of the game needed to be changed to regulate incentive structures that will lead to growth. The main objective of this research is to identify the peculiarity of economic growth in Macedonia and to examine if achieving smart growth in long-term is possible; which is supported by fundamental notions of sustainable development.

Fiscal Policy as an Engine of Economic Growth in Nigeria | Zhattau ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Economic growth is a powerful engine for generating long-term standard of living. There are many strategies through which a country may attain self-reliance. Fiscal policy has been identified as a means of generating growth. Taxation, major source of government revenue as well government expenditure are important ...

Trends in economic growth, poverty and energy in Colombia: long-run and short-run effects

OpenAIRE

Cotte Poveda, Alexander; Pardo Martínez, Clara

2011-01-01

This research analyses the long run and short run relationships among economic growth, poverty and energy using the Colombian case. In this study, we use the time-series methodologies. The results regarding the relationship among economic growth, poverty and energy show that increases in gross domestic product and energy supply per capita should lead a decrease of poverty, which should demonstrate that access to modern and adequate energy services help to decrease poverty and to increase econ...

Long-term weight gain and economic impact in pigs castrated under local anaesthesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F.G. Telles

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Castration is a controversial practice in swine production because in some countries is still performed without anaesthesia, and therefore causes intense suffering and stress to animals. This study investigated the effect of pre-surgical administration of local anaesthesia (LA on the growth performance of piglets until the end of the growth phase (102 days. Piglets aged 3 to 5 days were selected in pairs of similar weights and same age. They were originated from 22 litters. The groups were randomly assigned to one of two treatments. Castration was performed with (LA; n = 45 or without (NLA; n = 45 intra-testicular administration of 0.5 mL of 2% lidocaine plus adrenaline per testicle, administered by an automatic repeating vaccinator. Castration was performed 10 min later. Average daily weight gain and economic impact were evaluated between the intervals before castration until 21 (weaning phase, before castration until 60 (end of the initial nursery phase and before castration until 102 (growth phase days of age. Average daily weight gain data were analyzed by comparing the average daily weight gain between the weaning phase, 60 and 102 days of age versus the initial weight (pre-castration. At the end of the growing phase, animals treated with LA showed greater weight gain than animals castrated without anaesthesia. LA also showed improved cost:benefit ratio and theore might provide greater economic benefit under the conditions used in this study. Our findings have proved that castration with LA improves long-term weight gain of piglets.

Economic openness and economic growth: A cointegration analysis for ASEAN-5 countries

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Klimis Vogiatzoglou

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The paper considers three channels of economic openness, namely FDI, imports, and exports, and examines their short-run and long-run effects on the economic growth in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN over the period from 1980 to 2014. Besides the impact on the economic growth, the authors analyze all possible causal interrelationships to discern patterns and directions of causality among FDI, imports, exports, and GDP. The quantitative analysis, which is based on the vector error correction co-integration framework, is conducted separately for each country in order to assess their individual experiences and allow for a comparative view. Although the precise details differ across countries, the findings indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic openness and GDP in all ASEAN-5 economies. FDI, imports and exports have a significantly positive short-run and long-run impact on the economic growth. Our results also show that export-led growth is the most important economic growth factor in most countries, followed by FDI-led growth. Another crucial finding is the bi-directional causality between exports and FDI across the ASEAN-5 countries. This indicates the presence of direct and indirect effects on GDP and a self-reinforcing process of causality between those two variables, which strengthens their impact on the economic growth.

What Are the Long-Term Economic Costs of Psychological Problems during Childhood? Fact Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Steinberg, Paul

2010-01-01

Recent research has established evidence of a strong link between poor physical health during childhood (and even in utero) and health and economic outcomes much later in adulthood. But much less is known about the long-term economic consequences of psychological conditions experienced during childhood, although childhood psychological…

The Lack of a Long-Term Growth Effect of Annosus Control in Southeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

F. H. Tainter; J. G. Williams; N. J. Hess; S. W. Oak; D. A. Starkey

1989-01-01

An evaluation of basal area increment was made in 1988 of six pine plantations located across the southeastern United States. These plantations had been thinned in 1969-1970 and stumps treated with borax to measure long-term efficacy of annosus root rot control. In the present study, no long-term growth effects were identified. There were neither negative growth...

Landscape urbanization and economic growth in China: positive feedbacks and sustainability dilemmas.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Xuemei; Chen, Jing; Shi, Peijun

2012-01-03

Accelerating urbanization has been viewed as an important instrument for economic development and reducing regional income disparity in some developing countries, including China. Recent studies (Bloom et al. 2008) indicate that demographic urbanization level has no causal effect on economic growth. However, due to the varying and changing definition of urban population, the use of demographic indicators as a sole representing indicator for urbanization might be misleading. Here, we re-examine the causal relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Chinese cities and provinces in recent decades, using built-up areas as a landscape urbanization indicator. Our analysis shows that (1) larger cities, both in terms of population size and built-up area, and richer cities tend to gain more income, have larger built-up area expansion, and attract more population, than poorer cities or smaller cities; and (2) that there is a long-term bidirectional causality between urban built-up area expansion and GDP per capita at both city and provincial level, and a short-term bidirectional causality at provincial level, revealing a positive feedback between landscape urbanization and urban and regional economic growth in China. Our results suggest that urbanization, if measured by a landscape indicator, does have causal effect on economic growth in China, both within the city and with spillover effect to the region, and that urban land expansion is not only the consequences of economic growth in cities, but also drivers of such growth. The results also suggest that under its current economic growth model, it might be difficult for China to control urban expansion without sacrificing economic growth, and China's policy to stop the loss of agricultural land, for food security, might be challenged by its policy to promote economic growth through urbanization.

Energy taxation and economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seymour, Adam; Mabro, Robert.

1994-01-01

These two linked articles look at the relationship between policies aimed at taxing various energy sources and economic growth in the country, raising such taxes in order to decide how such fiscal policy can best serve the needs of developing nations. It is argued that, while many developing nations seek to protect internal energy markets by taxing imported petroleum products, a policy of domestic energy prices being set at the same level as their international equivalent costs is more consistent with the efficient management of long-term structural adjustment programmes. (UK)

Long-term monitoring of Sacramento Shade program trees: tree survival, growth and energy-saving performance

Science.gov (United States)

Yekang Ko; Jun-Hak Lee; E. Gregory McPherson; Lara A. Roman

2015-01-01

Long-term survival and growth of urban forests are critical to achieve the targeted benefits of urban tree planting programs, such as building energy savings from tree shade. However, little is known about how trees perform in the long-term, especially in residential areas. Given this gap in the literature, we monitored 22-years of post-planting survival, growth, and...

Quality, Export and Economic Growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Erik Strøjer; Pedersen, Kurt

1998-01-01

in an international context. The paper, therefore, addresses the complicated interactions between economic growth, export performance and quality. The contribution of the paper, compared to other growth accounting research, is the inclusion of quality data, quality being a significant mirror of technological...... development. The countries covered by the research represent a wide variation in terms of economic development, from poor LDC's to the most developed industrial nations. The empirical results reveal a probable strong relationship between quality/price and export growth as well as economic growth. This new...

Energy in 2010 - 2020. Long term challenges; Energie 2010-2020. Les defis du long terme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dessus, Benjamin [ed.] [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France)

2000-02-02

This report presents the results of a workshop intending to anticipate the long term challenges, to guide better the short term power options, to understand the available political, economical and technical assumptions for the prospective world situation, to give some strategic hints on the necessary transition. Indeed, the difficult issue which the workshop tried to tackle was how should we prepare to reveal the energetic challenge of the development of the eight to ten billion inhabitants of our Planet in the next century without jeopardizing its existence. The energetic problems, a hardcore of the international preoccupation of both growth and environment, as it was recently evidenced by the climatic conference in Kyoto, have ever been the object of a particular attention on the part of General Commissariat of Plan. Thus, the commission 'Energy in 2010 - 2020' has been instituted in April 1996 in order to update the works done in 1990 - 1991 by the commission 'Energy 2010'. Soon it occurred to this new commission the task of illuminating its works by a long term (2050 - 2100) world prospective analysis of the challenges and problems linked to energy, growth and environment. In conclusion, this document tried to find answers to questions like: - which are the risks the energy consumption augmentation entail? - can we control them by appropriate urbanism and transport policies or technological innovation?. Four options for immediate action are suggested: - the energy efficiency should become a priority objective of policies; -coping with the long term challenges requires acting at present; - building the transition between governmental leadership and market; - taking profit of all the possible synergies between short and long term planning.

THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH WITHIN EU

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meral (IBRAIM KAGITCI

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The main idea of this paper consists in offering a general view regarding a comparative analysis between different EU countries on public debt and economic growth. In the meantime, this is the evidence that the annual shift of the public dues ratio and the budget deficit to GDP ratio are seen in a bad way and linearly associated with per-capita GDP increase. The conduits term through government`s obligation (level or change is expected to have a big impact over the economical increased rate as: i secret saving; ii social investments; iii all the productivity factors; iv unlimited long-term nominal and real interest rate. From a political point of view, the results will bring basically arguments for dues reduction to support long-term increase prospect.

The economics of long-term operation of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lokhov, Alexey; Huerta, Alejandro; Dufresne, Luc; Giraud, Anne; Osouf, Nicolas

2012-01-01

Refurbishment and long-term operation (LTO) of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) today are crucial to the competitiveness of the nuclear industry in OECD countries as existing nuclear power plants produce base-load power at a reliable cost. A number of nuclear power plants, most notably 73 units in the United States (up to 2012), have been granted lifetime extensions of up to 60 years, a development that is being keenly watched in other OECD countries. In many of these (e.g. France, Switzerland), there is no legal end to the operating licence, but continued operation is based on the outcomes of periodic safety reviews. This study analyses technical and economic data on the upgrade and lifetime extension experience in OECD countries. A multi-criteria assessment methodology is used considering various factors and parameters reflecting current and future financial conditions of operation, political and regulatory risks, the state of the plants' equipment and the general role of nuclear power in the country's energy policy. The report shows that long-term operation of nuclear power plants has significant economic advantages for most utilities envisaging LTO programmes. In most cases, the continued operation of NPPs for at least ten more years is profitable even taking into account the additional costs of post-Fukushima modifications, and remains cost-effective compared to alternative replacement sources

Verbal Short-Term Memory Span in Children: Long-Term Modality Dependent Effects of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Science.gov (United States)

Geva, R.; Eshel, R.; Leitner, Y.; Fattal-Valevski, A.; Harel, S.

2008-01-01

Background: Recent reports showed that children born with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) are at greater risk of experiencing verbal short-term memory span (STM) deficits that may impede their learning capacities at school. It is still unknown whether these deficits are modality dependent. Methods: This long-term, prospective design study…

Import demand of crude oil and economic growth. Evidence from India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Sajal

2009-01-01

This study establishes a long-run equilibrium relationship among quantity of crude oil import, income and price of the imported crude in India for the time span 1970-1971 to 2005-2006 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results show that the long-term income elasticity of imported crude in India is 1.97 and there exists a unidirectional long-run causality running from economic growth to crude oil import. So reduction of crude oil import will not affect the future economic growth in India in the long-run. India should take various energy efficiency and demand side management measures in transport sector along with other measures like expanding and strengthening indigenous resource-base, substituting imported fuels by domestic fuels and de-controlling the price of petroleum products to reduce its import dependence. (author)

Insurance Market Activity and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip Chimobi Omoke

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The focus of this study is to empirically assess insurance market activities in Nigeria withthe view to determining its impact on economic growth. The period of study was 1970- 2008, thestudy made use of insurance density measures (premium per capita as a measure for insurancemarket activity and real GDP for economic growth. It also employed control variables such asinflation and savings rate as other determinants ofgrowth. The Johansen cointegration and vectorerror correction approach was used to estimate therelationship between the variables. All thevariables used were stationary at first differenceand the result showed a long term relationshipexisting among the variables. The hallmark findingof this study is that the insurance sector did notreveal any positively and significant affect on economic growth in Nigeria within the period of study.The result shows a low insurance market activity inNigeria and that Nigerians have not fully embracethe insurance industry despite its importance to the growth of theeconomy.

Verbal short-term memory span in children: long-term modality dependent effects of intrauterine growth restriction.

Science.gov (United States)

Geva, R; Eshel, R; Leitner, Y; Fattal-Valevski, A; Harel, S

2008-12-01

Recent reports showed that children born with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) are at greater risk of experiencing verbal short-term memory span (STM) deficits that may impede their learning capacities at school. It is still unknown whether these deficits are modality dependent. This long-term, prospective design study examined modality-dependent verbal STM functions in children who were diagnosed at birth with IUGR (n = 138) and a control group (n = 64). Their STM skills were evaluated individually at 9 years of age with four conditions of the Visual-Aural Digit Span Test (VADS; Koppitz, 1981): auditory-oral, auditory-written, visuospatial-oral and visuospatial-written. Cognitive competence was evaluated with the short form of the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children--revised (WISC-R95; Wechsler, 1998). We found IUGR-related specific auditory-oral STM deficits (p long-term relationship between prenatal aberrant head growth and auditory verbal STM deficits by the end of the first decade of life. Empirical, clinical and educational implications are presented.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Determinants of Economic Growth in V4 Countries and Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simionescu Mihaela

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The middle and long-term slowdown in growth dynamics could bring serious social and political problems for V4 countries (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. It would threaten reaching benefits from potential of convergence process with the developed countries of the European Union. As a result, the V4 economies and Romania should find solutions to achieving a sustainable growth that is associated with an improvement of their international competitiveness. This paper provides an empirical analysis of factors that might determine a stable economic growth in the five mentioned countries. The empirical analysis conducted for the period of 2003-2016 employed Bayesian generalized ridge regression. The main results indicated that the FDI promoted economic growth in all countries, except the Slovak Republic. Only in the Czech Republic, the expenditure on education generated economic growth, while the expenditure on R&D had positive effects in Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

Disasters and development: natural disasters, credit constraints, and economic growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

McDermott, T.K.J.; Barry, F.; Tol, R.S.J.

2014-01-01

Using a simple two-period model of the economy, we demonstrate the potential effects of natural disasters on economic growth over the medium to long term. In particular, we focus on the effect of such shocks on investment. We examine two polar cases: an economy in which agents have unconstrained

Does the Budget Expenditure Composition Matter for Long-Run Economic Growth in a Resource Rich Country? Evidence from Azerbaijan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khatai Aliyev

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the role of budget expenditure composition over Azerbaijan’s non-oil economic growth in the long-run by classifying public spending as capital, social and other expenditures. Authors’ employ ARDLBT approach to co-integration for the period of 2000Q1-2014Q4 to estimate long-run contribution of each spending category before-and-after the oil boom while controlling for oilrelated factors. Empirical results endorse the validity of long-run association among variables. Results concluded insignificant negative impact of capital expenditures, and significant negative impact of other expenditures. However, social spending has statistically and economically strong positive impact over the non-oil output growth. Therefore, research findings confirm that public expenditure composition significantly matters for long-run non-oil economic growth, and social expenditures have the greater positive impact in a resource-rich economy, Azerbaijan. Research results are highly useful for the government officials to consider while planning the expenditures in order to minimize negative response of non-oil sector to the fiscal contraction.

STIMULATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA BETWEEN REALITY AND DESIDERATE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DOBROTĂ GABRIELA

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Fragility of economical environment subject to a dynamic process of globalization in recent decades has been demonstrated abundantly, year 2007 representing an important point in terms of triggering the accentuated macroeconomic imbalances. The propagation of the financial crisis in the economic environment is clearly reflected by the contraction of the global economy after a long period of growth, the emphasizing of budget deficits, reducing wages, increase of unemployment. Romania was significantly affected by the global economic crisis, amid a long line of inadequate policies. The orientation excessive economic development through consumption and the unfavorable ratio between income and productivity are issues that have contributed significantly to the decline of the Romanian economy. Inadequate measures taken have worsened the effects of crisis: reducing foreign investment, increasing of trade deficit, reduction of living standards, decreasing the number of SMEs, worsening the institutional weaknesses etc. In this paper, are addressed aspects which highlights the effects of economic policy measures promoted in Romania after the transition to market economy, on stages, specifying measures necessary to ensure the functionality of coordination mechanisms, in order to register determinant impulses of economic growth.

Growth scenarios for sub-Saharan countries in the framework of economic complexity

OpenAIRE

Cristelli, Matthieu; Tacchella, Andrea; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-01-01

We present a comparative analysis of the medium-long term perspectives of development for sub-Saharan countries in the framework of economic complexity. This analysis is made in comparison with the development of Asian tigers. Economic complexity is a data-driven framework which aims at providing a more scientific basis for the economic theory and it has a specific focus on understanding the determinants of growth by means of two new economic dimensions: the country fitness and the produc...

Long term trends in economic inequality : Lessons from colonial Botswana 1921–1974

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bolt, Jutta; Hillbom, Ellen

2016-01-01

This article contributes to the growing literature on colonial legacies influencing long-term development. It focuses on Botswana, a case where the post-independence diamond-led economy has been considered an economic success story, despite its high levels of inequality. Here it is argued that this

The environment in the Netherlands in the long-term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieringa, K.; Maas, R.

1992-01-01

The environmental problem is one of the central elements in the newest long-term scenarios of the CPB (Dutch Central Planning Bureau). Will the environmental problems limit the economic growth for the next 25 years? Or can growth of production and consumption be combined with the environmental aims as formulated in the National Environmental Policy (NMP in Dutch). Being a preliminary study on the third National Environmental Outlook (to be published in 1993) the governmental institute for public health and environmental hygiene (RIVM) calculated the environmental impacts in the scenarios developed by the CPB. In particular attention is paid to the costs of the planned environmental policy. The scenarios discussed are Balanced Growth, characterized by a strong economic growth, sustainable economic development, and a dynamic technological development, the Global Shift scenario, characterized by a very dynamic technological development, and the European Renaissance scenario with a less dynamic development. 2 figs., 1 tab

Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-05-01

Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability

Synaptic remodeling, synaptic growth and the storage of long-term memory in Aplysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Craig H; Kandel, Eric R

2008-01-01

Synaptic remodeling and synaptic growth accompany various forms of long-term memory. Storage of the long-term memory for sensitization of the gill-withdrawal reflex in Aplysia has been extensively studied in this respect and is associated with the growth of new synapses by the sensory neurons onto their postsynaptic target neurons. Recent time-lapse imaging studies of living sensory-to-motor neuron synapses in culture have monitored both functional and structural changes simultaneously so as to follow remodeling and growth at the same specific synaptic connections continuously over time and to examine the functional contribution of these learning-related structural changes to the different time-dependent phases of memory storage. Insights provided by these studies suggest the synaptic differentiation and growth induced by learning in the mature nervous system are highly dynamic and often rapid processes that can recruit both molecules and mechanisms used for de novo synapse formation during development.

Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Seung-Hoon

2005-01-01

This paper investigates the short- and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Korea by using the co-integration and error-correction models. It employs annual data covering the period 1970-2002. The overall results show that there exists bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption

Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

2015-04-01

Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Grames

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

An integrated specification for the nexus of water pollution and economic growth in China: Panel cointegration, long-run causality and environmental Kuznets curve.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Chen; Wang, Yuan; Song, Xiaowei; Kubota, Jumpei; He, Yanmin; Tojo, Junji; Zhu, Xiaodong

2017-12-31

This paper concentrates on a Chinese context and makes efforts to develop an integrated process to explicitly elucidate the relationship between economic growth and water pollution discharge-chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge and ammonia nitrogen (NH 3 -N), using two unbalanced panel data sets covering the period separately from 1990 to 2014, and 2001 to 2014. In our present study, the panel unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Granger causality tests allowing for cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary, and heterogeneity are conducted to examine the causal effects of economic growth on COD/NH 3 -N discharge. Further, we simultaneously apply semi-parametric fixed effects estimation and parametric fixed effects estimation to investigate environmental Kuznets curve relationship for COD/NH 3 -N discharge. Our empirical results show a long-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and COD/NH 3 -N discharge in China. Within the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology framework, we find evidence in support of an inverted U-shaped curved link between economic growth and COD/NH 3 -N discharge. To the best of our knowledge, there have not been any efforts made in investigating the nexus of economic growth and water pollution in such an integrated manner. Therefore, this study takes a fresh look on this topic. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proposal for new climate agreements: Economic growth determines the emission quota

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallbekken, Steffen; Tjernshaugen, Andreas

2002-01-01

Long-term obligations to curb the emission of climate gases involve economic uncertainty because it is difficult to determine the cost of future reductions. This may be the principle reason why the USA and the developing countries are reluctant to accept binding demands on their emissions of climate gases. For example, the commitments of the Kyoto Protocol were agreed upon more than ten years before they shall be put to force. Over such a long time span it is impossible to predict the development of the economy as well as the gas emissions. Usually economical development leads to increased gas emission. If a country commits itself to a quantified limit on its emission, and the economical development turns out to be much faster than predicted, then living up to the commitments may be very expensive. The same is true if the economic growth occurs in the polluting sectors to a larger degree than expected. Many heads of state thus fear that binding emission targets may restrain economic growth

Economic Growth and the Evolution of Material Cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Chao; Chen, Wei Qiang; Liu, Gang

2017-01-01

Understanding the relationship between material cycles and economic growth is essential for relieving environmental pressures associated with material extraction, production, and consumption. We developed an integrated analytical framework of dematerialization analysis incorporating both material...... flow and stock indicators. A four-quadrant diagram is designed to classify different stages of dematerialization based on the elasticity of material flow/stock to economic output or well-being. We then conducted a case study on the long-term evolution of aluminum cycle in the U.S., and found...... and secondary material recycling, take effect at different stages of economic development. Comprehensive understanding of dematerialization depends on in-depth analysis on material-economy relationships from an integrated stock and flow perspective....

Long-term control of root growth

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene

1992-05-26

A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin.

Effects of long-term price increases for oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voehringer, F.; Mueller, A.; Boehringer, C.

2007-03-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the effects of higher oil prices in the long-term. Scenarios examined include those with high oil prices of 80 to 140 dollars per barrel and those with drastic shortages resulting from peak extraction in the years 2010 and 2020. Long-term economic balances form the basis of the report, short-term influences and psychological effects are not addressed. The possible dangers for the earth's climate caused by the substitution of oil by coal-based products are discussed, as well as the sequestration of carbon dioxide. Ethanol and the associated conflicts of land use are examined and the decreasing cost-effectiveness of co-generation power generation is looked at. Alternatives such as atomic power, hydropower, solar energy, geothermal energy, biogas and wind power are discussed. The effect of the changing energy scene on economic growth and welfare aspects in Switzerland are examined. The authors conclude that high oil prices have considerable impacts on the economy and are not a substitute for an internationally co-ordinated climate policy

Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji Guo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Using a newly developed integrated indicator system with entropy weighting, we analyzed the panel data of 577 recorded disasters in 30 provinces of China from 1985–2011 to identify their links with the subsequent economic growth. Meteorological disasters promote economic growth through human capital instead of physical capital. Geological disasters did not trigger local economic growth from 1999–2011. Generally, natural disasters overall had no significant impact on economic growth from 1985–1998. Thus, human capital reinvestment should be the aim in managing recoveries, and it should be used to regenerate the local economy based on long-term sustainable development.

The Long-Term Economic Impact of in Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria

Science.gov (United States)

Barreca, Alan I.

2010-01-01

I use an instrumental-variables identification strategy and historical data from the United States to estimate the long-term economic impact of in utero and postnatal exposure to malaria. My research design matches adults in the 1960 Decennial Census to the malaria death rate in their respective state and year of birth. To address potential…

Long-term availability of global uranium resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monnet, Antoine

2016-01-01

From a global perspective, a low-carbon path to development driven by a growth of nuclear power production raises issues about the availability of uranium resources. Future technologies allowing nuclear reactors to overcome the need for natural uranium will take time to fully deploy. To address these issues, we analyze the conditions of availability of uranium in the 21. century. The first two conditions are technical accessibility and economic interest, both related to the cost of production. We study them using a model that estimates the ultimate uranium resources (amounts of both discovered and undiscovered resources) and their costs. This model splits the world into regions and the resource estimate for each region derives from the present knowledge of the deposits and economic filtering. The output is a long-term supply curve that illustrates the quantities of uranium that are technically accessible as a function of their cost of production. We identify the main uncertainties of these estimates and we show that with no regional breakdown, the ultimate resources are underestimated. The other conditions of availability of uranium covered in our study are related to the market dynamics, i.e. they derive from the supply and demand clearing mechanism. To assess their influence, they are introduced as dynamic constraints in a partial equilibrium model. This model of the uranium market is deterministic, and market players are represented by regions. For instance, it takes into account the short-term correlation between price and exploration expenditures, which is the subject of a dedicate econometric study. In the longer term, constraints include anticipation of demand by consumers and a gradual depletion of the cheapest ultimate resources. Through a series of prospective simulations, we demonstrate the strong influence on long-term price trends of both the growth rate of demand during the 21. century and its anticipation. Conversely, the uncertainties related to the

TOURIST ARRIVALS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SARAWAK

OpenAIRE

Lau, Evan; Oh, Swee-Ling; Hu, Sing-Sing

2008-01-01

This study empirically investigates the comovements and the causality relationship between tourist arrivals and economic growth in Sarawak during the period of 1972 to 2004. The empirical evidence clearly shows that the long run causality running from tourist arrivals to economic growth in the estimation period. As one of the income generator for Sarawak, the findings are consistent with economic theory and proffer important policy conclusions.

Thermodynamics of long-run economic innovation and growth

OpenAIRE

Garrett, Timothy J.

2013-01-01

This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustain existing circulations and to further its material growth. Appealing to a prior result that established a fixed relationship between a very general representation of global eco...

Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A multivariate causality test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yuan; Wang Yichen; Zhou Jing; Zhu Xiaodong; Lu Genfa

2011-01-01

This study takes a fresh look at the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in China during the period from 1972 to 2006, using a multivariate cointegration approach. Given the weakness associated with the bivariate causality framework, the current study performs a multivariate causality framework by incorporating capital and labor variables into the model between energy consumption and economic growth based on neo-classical aggregate production theory. Using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, a long-run equilibrium cointegration relationship has been found to exist between economic growth and the explanatory variables: energy consumption, capital and employment. Empirical results reveal that the long-run parameter of energy consumption on economic growth in China is approximately 0.15, through a long-run static solution of the estimated ARDL model, and that for the short-run is approximately 0.12 by the error correction model. The study also indicates the existence of short-run and long-run causality running from energy consumption, capital and employment to economic growth. The estimation results imply that energy serves as an important source of economic growth, thus more vigorous energy use and economic development strategies should be adopted for China. - Highlights: → Cointegration is only present when real GDP is the dependent variable. →The long-run causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. →China is an energy dependent economy.

ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC GROWTH TRENDS IN ROMANIA BETWEEN 2010-2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Mihaela NEAMȚU

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The question: "Why some countries are richer than others?" is a crucial problem that many economists have proposed to answer. Firstly, it should be noted the fact that the economic development is a quantitative and qualitative concept with a much broader area than growth. It is good that we have economic growth and stability but it is not enough to have economic development. Why? While economic growth is measured by a small number of indicators, among which the most important is the growth rate of GDP, the economic growth implies a long-term dynamic equilibrium, a sustainable growth trajectory based on optimal use of all available resources, the continued development of innovative potential and human capital and the development of strong institutions in order to support economic growth. This study aims, by keeping the interdependence of the investigated aspects, to analyze and describe the following dimensions: GDP per capita and the average productivity per hour, the most important issues that have led to changes of GDP, where Romania is classified from the growth point of view. The study includes the results of research, statistical series and arguments about the evolution of GDP based on National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies and the Romanian National Bank over the last three years. Finally, the paper proposes a series of lines of action for further sustainable development of our country and reducing the disparities with the EU average.

OECD/NEA study on the economics of the long-term operation of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lokhov, A.; Cameron, R. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 12, boulevard des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

2012-07-01

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) established the Ad hoc expert group on the Economics of Long-term Operation (LTO) of Nuclear Power Plants. The primary aim of this group is to collect and analyse technical and economic data on the upgrade and lifetime extension experience in OECD countries, and to assess the likely applications for future extensions. This paper describes the key elements of the methodology of economic assessment of LTO and initial findings for selected NEA member countries. (authors)

Role of the breeder in long-term energy economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosobud, R.F.; Daly, T.A.; Chang, Y.I.

1982-01-01

Private and public decisions affecting the use of nuclear and other energy technologies over a long-run time horizon were studied using the ETA-MACRO model which provides for economic- and energy-sector interactions. The impact on the use of competing energy technologies of a public decision to apply benefit-cost analysis to the production of carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere is considered. Assuming the public choice is to impose an appropriate penalty tax on those technologies which generate CO 2 and to allow decentralized private decisions to choose the optimal mix of energy technologies that maximize a nonlinear objective function subject to constraints, the study showed that breeder technology provides a much-larger share of domestically consumed energy. Having the breeder technology available as a substitute permits control of CO 2 without significant reductions in consumption or gross national product growth paths

Low Schooling for Girls, Slower Growth for All? Cross-Country Evidence on the Effect of Gender Inequality in Education on Economic Development

OpenAIRE

Klasen, Stephan

2002-01-01

Using cross-country and panel regressions, this article investigates how gender inequality in education affects long-term economic growth. Such inequality is found to have an effect on economic growth that is robust to changes in specifications and controls for potential endogeneities. The results suggest that gender inequality in education directly affects economic growth by lowering the ...

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Impact of Worker Remittances on Economic Growth of Pakistan: Analysis of Pakistan’s Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mobeen Shafqat

2014-06-01

Full Text Available We make this study for the purpose of getting logical answer about avery famous matter regarding contribution of worker’s remittance in the growth of the economy of Pakistan. We also include different variables to evaluate the exact effect of foreign exchange earnings in economic growth of Pakistan by using time series data for the duration of 1991 to 2010. Here we applied OLS multiple regressions model and also check the assumptions of OLS by different diagnostic tests. The empirical and quantitative results describe that foreign remittance are the famous mean of economic growth and have significant positive relationship with each other. The productive use of this paper can help the economy of Pakistan to maintain and improve the economic growth by investing this money into different long term and short term projects. Pakistan’s Government should provide different incentives and lower down the cost of transactions to attract the overseas Pakistani emigrants that sent money through unofficial ways.

The renewable energy and economic growth nexus in Black Sea and Balkan countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koçak, Emrah; Şarkgüneşi, Aykut

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth within the framework of traditional production function for the period of 1990–2012 in 9 Black Sea and Balkan countries. For this purpose, we use panel cointegration, co-integration estimate methods and heterogeneous panel causality estimation techniques. The study has concluded that there is a long term balance relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth and renewable energy consumption has a positive impact on economic growth. Heterogeneous panel causality analysis results support growth hypothesis in Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Russia and Ukraine; feedback hypothesis in Albania, Georgia and Romania; neutrality hypothesis in Turkey and according to the panel data set including all nine countries the results support feedback hypothesis. With the findings, it was concluded that there is a significant impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth in Balkan and Black Sea Countries. - Highlights: • Explores the impact of renewable energy on economic growth in Black Sea and Balkan countries. • Employs panel cointegration and heterogeneous causality analyses. • Finds significant effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth. • Finds bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for the whole panel.

Sociopolitical Instability and Economic Growth Empirical Evidence from Sri Lanka

OpenAIRE

Changsheng Xu; Santhirasegaram Selvarathinam; Wen X. Li

2007-01-01

Sociopolitical instability severely affects economic growth in short and long run. This study analyzes that sociopolitical instability measured by proxy measure; annual growth rate of tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka during 1960-2005 adversely affects economic growth. Our empirical findings based on ordinary lease square econometric estimation, show that sociopolitical instability negatively and significantly affect economic growth. Reduction of economic growth rate (-0.032) due to the sociopoli...

Ecological economics and economic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Victor, Peter A

2010-01-01

Boulding's 1966 paper on the economics of spaceship Earth established the framework for ecological economics and an understanding of economic growth. In ecological economics, economies are conceptualized as open subsystems of the closed biosphere and are subject to biophysical laws and constraints. Economic growth measured as an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) has generally been associated with increases in the use of energy and materials and the generation of wastes. Scale, composition, and technology are the proximate determinants of environmental impacts. They are often reduced to two: scale (GDP) and intensity (impact per unit GDP). New work described in this paper defines "green" growth as intensity that declines faster than scale increases. Similarly, "brown" growth occurs when intensity declines more slowly than increases in scale, and "black" growth happens when both scale and intensity increase. These concepts are then related to the environmental Kuznets curve, which can be understood as a transition from brown to green growth. Ecological economics provides a macroperspective on economic growth. It offers broad policy principles, and it challenges the primacy of economic growth as a policy objective, but many important questions remain.

US carbon emissions, technological progress and economic growth since 1870

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, H.G.

2005-01-01

The long-term US experience emphasises the importance of controlling for electrification and other major technology transformations when evaluating the growth of carbon emissions at different stages of development. Prior to World War I, carbon emissions grew faster than economic growth by 2.3% per year. As electricity use expanded and steam engines became much larger, carbon emissions began to grow slower than economic growth by 1.6% per year. Adjusting to this technological shift, an expanding economy continues to increase carbon emissions by about 9% for each 10% faster growth. There is little evidence of a decline in this elasticity as the income level rises. These results suggest that the USA today will need to find additional policies to curb carbon emissions if it wishes to prevent any further increase in its per capita emissions, and if its per capita economy grows by more than 1.8% per year. (Author)

Determinants of economic growth in BRIC countries

OpenAIRE

Rajjev K. Goel

2011-01-01

We study economic growth in four emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). Questions addressed are: (a) How do medium term growth determinants differ from short term determinants? (b) What are differences between growth effects of aggregate versus disaggregated exports? And (c) Does lower institutional quality hinder growth? Results show that while BRIC nations have higher growth, there are significant within-group differences. China and Russia mostly showed higher growth,...

The economic growth of oil countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arbod, G.

2007-02-01

The literature tries to apprehend the weakness of the economic growth of oil culminates by the assumption of ousted growth factors. In the Dutch Disease models the non-oil exporting sector would be ousted whereas in the analyses in terms of economic policies it would be the efficient economic policies. We consider the phenomenon through the growth theories, the oil income being regarded as an additional exogenous income for the economy. In this manner the growth dynamic of oil countries, even the most unfavourable, can be modelled without utilizing any concept of economic inefficiency. The last part of our work is devoted to the Saudi economy. After having developed a macro-econometric model, and using scenarios of oil prices, we lead a forecasted analysis of this economy. (author)

The Effect of Green Taxation and Economic Growth on Environment Hazards: The Case of Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Nanthakumar, Loganathan; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Taha, Roshaiza

2014-01-01

This paper explores how carbon taxation and economic growth affect environment hazards in Malaysia using time series data over the period of 1974-2010. We applied cointegration and causality approaches to determine long term and the direction of causal relationship between these variables. Based on the results, we found the cointegration relationship between the variables. Furthermore, we noted that Kuznets’ theory i.e. inverted-U shaped curve between economic growth and CO2 emissions is vali...

Long-term socio-economic impact of vestibular schwannoma for patients under observation and after surgery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tos, Tina; Caye-Thomasen, Per; Stangerup, Sven-Eric

2003-01-01

This study describes and compares the long-term socio-economic impact for patients diagnosed with a vestibular schwannoma and either operated on or observed. A consecutive sample of patients diagnosed with vestibular schwannoma in Denmark and either operated on (748 patients) or observed...

The role of government spending on economic growth in a developing country

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.F. Oladele

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The issue of whether government expenditure helps or hinders economic growth is still debatable. This study examines the contribution of government spending towards economic growth in South Africa using annual data from 1980 – 2014. The cointegration approach and Vector Error Correction Model were used to analyse the data. The cointegration test results indicate that there is long run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. The VECM outcome indicates a positive and significant link between economic growth and expenditure on the long run. There is a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate and economic growth and a significant and negative relationship between economic growth and private consumption. Based on these findings, the correlation between government expenditure and economic growth showed that there is positive relationship on the long run in South Africa, while there is a negative and significant relationship between government spending and economic growth on the short run. More spending should therefore be directed towards important sectors such as infrastructural development and industrial development in order to accelerate economic growth. There is also a need for fiscal policy to be used as an instrument to regulate the amount of money in the economy.

Sustainability and Substitution of Exhaustible Natural Resources : How Resource Prices Affect Long-Term R&D Investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bretschger, L.; Smulders, J.A.

2003-01-01

Traditional resource economics has been criticised for assuming too high elasticities of substitution, not observing material balance principles and relying too much on planner solutions to obtain long-term growth.By analysing a multi-sector R&D based endogenous growth model with exhaustible natural

Remarks on economic growth and energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, W.

1979-01-01

An energy policy according to the principles of decoupling is impossible without an increase in reasonable and profitable power application. It is also impossible without increased nuclear energy. Energy policy according to the principles of decoupling connects the natural growth tendency of a liberally arranged industry with the natural limits of the production factor 'nature'. Energy policy is the very sphere where tomorrow's necessities must be planned today. If in long range, a constant level of energy production struturised different from today's can be assumed, then this is future-bound. For it takes into consideration today tomorrow's necessities. This is the only guarantee we have for our industry to be able to grow tomorrow. On the basis of historical experience, an economic system will believe in the goal of a constant energy supply just as it was believing in abounding in energy up to day. The structure of the growth might change in long term. But accepting the thoughts of decoupling, progress will come. (orig./HP) [de

Effects of Female Education on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Study

Science.gov (United States)

Oztunc, Hakan; Oo, Zar Chi; Serin, Zehra Vildan

2015-01-01

This study examines the extent to which women's education affects long-term economic growth in the Asia Pacific region. It focuses on the time period between 1990 and 2010, using data collected in randomly selected Asia Pacific countries: Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.…

Economic Evaluation of Long-term Operation of NPPs in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Kihyun; Kim, Taeryong; Jeong, Cheolwook

2015-01-01

It is inevitable for Korean government to establish the energy policy which can support the energy security and independence since Korea depends on approximately 97% of energy resources from abroad. We selected nuclear power plant to overcome the problem. Since Kori unit 1 began operating as a first nuclear power plant, nuclear power generation has been played a big role in providing about 30% of total electricity supply in Korea. Many researchers and economists have already assessed about safety and economic aspects of the nuclear power generation. This paper will deal with the economic benefits for the contribution of nuclear power generation especially long-term operation of NPPs to the Korean society. In this paper, the economic analysis of the LTO for the existing power plant less than and equal to 1,000MW compared to no extension was investigated. The selected durations of LTO are 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years beyond design life. The result from the analysis is that LTO of NPPs is more beneficial than observance of its design life. In the aspects of utility's electricity sales increase and reducing the new construction of APR1400 NPPs with cost savings, LTO is one of the best option in order to provide electric energy with Korean society

Causality analysis of diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamba, Jean Gaston; Njomo, Donatien; Limanond, Thirayoot; Ntsafack, Borel

2012-01-01

This study examines the causal relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon by using a three-step modern time-series technique. Tests for unit roots, cointegration, and Granger-causality based on error correction model are employed on annual data covering the period 1975–2008. Empirical results of the study confirm the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth. The error correction model shows that an estimated 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30% in the long-run. The overall results show that there exists bidirectional causality in the long-run relationship and no causality in the short-run relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth at the 5% level of significance. Thus, the energy policies in Cameroon should place priority on the discovery of new oil field and building capacity additions of the refinery to increase production of petroleum products, as this would propel the economic growth of the country. - Highlights: ► We examine the causal relationship between diesel consumption and GDP in Cameroon. ► we analyze the petroleum products sector in Cameroon. ► 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30%. ► The policy aimed at improving diesel supply have a positive impact on economics.

Capital Flight and Economic Performance

OpenAIRE

Beja, Edsel Jr.

2007-01-01

Capital flight aggravates resource constraints and contributes to undermine long-term economic growth. Counterfactual calculations on the Philippines suggest that capital flight contributed to lower the quality of long-term economic growth. Sustained capital flight over three decades means that capital flight had a role for the Philippines to lose the opportunities to achieve economic takeoff. Unless decisive policy actions are taken up to address enduring capital flight and manage the macroe...

Trade Liberalisation and Economic Growth in Macedonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mano-Bakalinov Viktorija

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to explore the effects of trade on Macedonian economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL model is applied on yearly data over the period of 1993-2014. Empirical investigation reveals that an increase of population and openness demonstrate a positive and significant effect on Macedonian economic growth. Given other diverging findings, this suggests that the relationship between trade reforms and growth through the productivity function may vary across transition economies. Nevertheless, the findings of this paper indicate that policies focusing on market liberalisation and opening the economy to trade have a positive effect on Macedonian economic growth, both in the short run and the long run.

Economic growth and energy consumption in Algeria: a causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cherfi, S.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to review the causal link in the Granger sense, between energy consumption and economic growth in Algeria, to determine its implications for economic policy. The analysis was done based on Granger static and causality tests using statistical data on per capita primary energy consumption and gross domestic product per inhabitant in Algeria, over the 1965-2008 period. The results of the survey show that there is, in Algeria, a strong link between energy consumption per inhabitant and GDP per inhabitant. The results also suggest the lack of a long term impetus (no co-integration) between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, there is a one-way causal link between GDP and energy consumption, i.e. the prior GDP data provides a better forecast of energy consumption level, but not the contrary. In other words, GDP explains consumption, not the contrary. (author)

A panel study of nuclear energy consumption and economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James E.

2010-01-01

This study examines the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth for sixteen countries within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1980-2005. Pedroni's (1999, 2004) heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, nuclear energy consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant. The results of the panel vector error correction model finds bidirectional causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short-run while unidirectional causality from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth in the long-run. Thus, the results provide support for the feedback hypothesis associated with the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth.

Quality of Public Finance and Economic Growth in the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irena Szarowská

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Quality of public finances belongs to a key policy challenge as its improvement should lead to a long-term economic growth. The aim of the paper is to investigate if the key channels and tools used by the public finance (structure of revenue system, size of the government and composition of expenditure, level and sustainability of fiscal position affect economic growth in the Czech Republic in the period 1995-2013. The empirical model is based on the methodology of Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2003 and the model of Mankiw et al. (1992 which is adapted to the framework of this study. The results of dynamic regressions suggest that economic growth is affected by public finance variables only partly and traditional sources of economic growth (human capital or openness play bigger role. Provided evidence shows that total tax burden as well as the structure of revenue system (especially implicit tax rates on labour and consumption should be primarily used as tools for maintain macroeconomic objectives. On the contrary, changes in size and composition of expenditure, balance and debt report not statistically significant impact.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH TOURISM. THE CASE OF REGION WEST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragoi Ionut

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The regional development should aim to correlate and integrate tourism among the other integrative parts of the regional and local development, taking into account the fact that a region’s prosperity as effect of tourism development may be shown clearly in several stages: on the spot (as a result of direct consumption of the tourist product, on short term (through continuous absorption of the work-force and encouraging the welcoming commerce and in the long run (concentrating capital for investment in the general infrastructure and the one of tourism, in structures of reception for tourism and in the development of urban services. The analysis of intra-regional disparities as part of the economic growth at the level of Region West starts off with the idea that each component county has a different landscape, which favored or inhibited their economic growth; in the same time, each component county has its own specific, which can be promoted through tourism, inducing in time a regional income, and respectively, a social-economic and cultural growth of less developed areas.

Empirical study with structural break on the relationship between financial development and economic growth of Jiangxi province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiang Xinxi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The empirical study over the period 1978-2011 found that the relationship between real per capita GDP and financial interrelation ratio structurally broke since 2004. From 1978 to 2003, economic growth and financial development had a long-term co-integration, and it showed one-way supply relationship according to the Granger causality test, which means the economic growth have a slowly leading function to the development of finance. From 2004 to 2011, the correlation between them became weaker and had no Granger causality, but there had a long-term co-integration and mutual causality relationship existed between loan and GDP during the whole period. From it we can see loan could boost output more persistently. Therefore, the enhanced economic power of Jiangxi province could promote further development of regional financial service industries, and we would propose some related policy suggestions in this paper.

A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wen, Zongguo; Chen, Jining

2008-01-01

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decision-makers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was - 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of

A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wen, Zongguo; Chen, Jining [Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

2008-04-01

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decision-makers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was - 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage

Dynamic and Long-term Linkages among Growth, Inequality and Poverty in Developing Countries

OpenAIRE

Katsushi S. Imai; Raghav Gaiha

2014-01-01

Abstract Drawing upon a cross-country panel data for developing countries, the present study sheds new empirical light on dynamic and long-term linkages among growth, inequality and poverty. First, agricultural sector growth is found to be consistently the most important factor in reducing inequality and poverty not only through its direct effects but also through its indirect effects. Second, there is a significant and negative association between inequality and GDP per capita, with macro in...

Effect of long-term growth hormone treatment on bone mass and bone metabolism in growth hormone-deficient men

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bravenboer, N; Holzmann, PJ; ter Maaten, JC; Stuurman, LM; Roos, JC; Lips, P

2005-01-01

Long-term GH treatment in GH-deficient men resulted in a continuous increase in bone turnover as shown by histomorphometry. BMD continuously increased in all regions of interest, but more in the regions with predominantly cortical bone. Introduction: Adults with growth hormone (GH) deficiency have

Restoring old-growth southern pine ecosystems: strategic lessons from long-term silvicultural research

Science.gov (United States)

Don C. Bragg; Michael G. Shelton; James M. Guldin

2008-01-01

The successful restoration of old-growth-like loblolly (Pinus taeda) and shortleaf (Pinus echinata) pine-dominated forests requires the integration of ecological information with long-term silvicultural research from places such as the Crossett Experimental Forest (CEF). Conventional management practices such as timber harvesting or competition control have supplied...

Role of the breeder in long term energy economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosobud, R.F.; Chang, Y.I.; Daly, T.A.

1982-01-01

In this study the authors report the results of their study of private and public decisions affecting the use of nuclear and other energy technologies over a long run time horizon. For this purpose, the authors employ the well known ETA-MACRO model which provides for economic and energy sector interactions. In this first of their planned series of studies, they consider the impact on the use of competing energy technologies of a public decision to apply benefit-cost analysis to the production of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that enters the atmosphere. Assuming the public choice is to impose an appropriate penalty tax on those technologies which generate CO 2 and to allow decentralized private decisions to choose the optimal mix of energy technologies that maximize a nonlinear objective function subject to constraints, the authors find that the breeder technology is chosen to provide a much larger share of domestically consumed energy. Having the breeder technology available as a substitute permits control of CO 2 without significant reductions in consumption or gross national product growth paths

CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China: A panel data analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, S.S.; Zhou, D.Q.; Zhou, P.; Wang, Q.W.

2011-01-01

This paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in China over the period 1995-2007. Our empirical results show that CO 2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated. Moreover, there exists bidirectional causality between CO 2 emissions and energy consumption, and also between energy consumption and economic growth. It has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long-run causes for CO 2 emissions and CO 2 emissions and economic growth are the long-run causes for energy consumption. The results indicate that China's CO 2 emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing CO 2 emissions may handicap China's economic growth to some degree. Some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed. - Highlights: → We conduct a panel data analysis of the energy-CO 2 -economy nexus in China. → CO 2 emissions, energy use and economic growth appear to be cointegrated. → There exists bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth. → Energy consumption and economic growth are the long-run causes for CO 2 emissions.

An Accounting Method for Economic Growth

OpenAIRE

Hongchun Zhao

2012-01-01

As Chari et al. (2007) indicate, many growth theories explaining frictions in real economies are equivalent to a competitive economy, with some exogenous taxes. Using this idea, I developed an accounting method for identifying fundamental causes of economic growth. A two-sector neoclassical growth model with taxes is used as a prototype economy, and its equilibrium conditions define wedges. These wedges endogenously determine the long run growth rate, which is exogenous and not correlated wit...

Economic growth in Kosovo and in other countries in terms of globalization of world economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lumnije Thaçi

2013-07-01

It is important to consider the fact that, despite the recent crisis, economic growth model, based on the deepening of EU integration process, in terms of finance, trade, labour markets and institutions, remains as best model for developing countries and Kosovo itself. Special treatment is given to achieved achievements and projections for the following years under policies compiled by the Government of the Republic of Kosovo to enable generic analysis for concrete situation of our national economy. Also, this paper shall explain the underlying factors which will influence on a more accelerated economic development.

Human Capital and Economic Growth: The Quest for the Most Relevant Level of Education in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Sultan, Faisal; Tehseen, Syed; Arif, Imtiaz

2009-01-01

The study examines the role of human capital in the economic growth of Pakistan by using primary, secondary and higher education enrolments as proxies for human capital in three different specifications. The idea behind these models is to find out the most relevant level of education in terms of its contribution in economic growth. The order of integration of the variables is checked through Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron test. In order to find out the evidences of the long run r...

ECONOMIC GROWTH - AN ILLUSION? STUDY CASE:ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camelia MORARU

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Literature has devoted considerable attention to economic growth because it creates the premises for achieving major goals such as route out of poverty of underdeveloped countries or contribute to raising the standard of living in developed countries. Economic growth has become an “order of the day” term, propagated by various "players" of economic and social life, in this way gaining various interpretations and meanings. This paper presents the results of the measures adopatate in order to recover Romanian economic situation. The austerity measures adopted until recently not allowed, however, to create a favorable environment for growth, taking into consideration that it is almost impossible for an economy to grow when conditions are limiting. Fiscal policies have focused on reducing the budget deficit, which led on slaughtering economic growth. Given the uncertain economic context, FDI was hardly drew into our country, their value last year has been insignificant. We can even say that the previous ended year was one economically, because our country did not recognize the road to the economic recovery.

The Long-Term Economic Impact of In Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria

OpenAIRE

Alan Barreca

2009-01-01

I use an instrumental-variables identification strategy and historical data from the United States to estimate the long-term economic impact of in utero and postnatal exposure to malaria. My research design matches adults in the 1960 Decennial Census to the malaria death rate in their respective state and year of birth. To address potential omitted variables bias and measurement-error bias, I use variation in "malaria-ideal" temperatures to instrument for malaria exposure. My estimates indica...

The Relationship between Property Rights and Economic Growth: an Analysis of OECD and EU Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haydaroğlu Ceyhun

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In recent years, institutions and institutional structure have become some of the most popular concepts analyzed by economics theory. New growth theories have especially focused on the effects of institutions and institutional structure on a macro level. Property rights are one of the most important elements of this institutional structure. The relationship between property rights and economic growth have drawn the attention of many researchers and policymakers in recent years. The aim of this study, covering the period 2007–2014, is to examine the relationship between property rights and economic growth with the help of PARDL in OECD and EU countries. According to the result of a bounds test, there is cointegration between the variables. The long- and short-term relationships between series were determined and the results taken from the analysis show that there is a positive effect on economic growth in those countries.

Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad

2011-01-01

The aim of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the cointegration and Granger causality frameworks. This study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009. We examine the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the Unrestricted Error-Correction Model (UECM). Moreover, we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the Granger causality test within the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). As a summary of the empirical findings, we find that electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal are cointegrated and there is bi-directional Granger causality between the three variables in the long-run. With the exception of the Granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, the rest of the variables are also bi-directional Granger causality in the short-run. Furthermore, we find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. - Highlights: → We re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal. → The electricity consumption and economic growth is causing each other in the long-run. → In the short-run, economic growth Granger-cause electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. → Energy conservation policy will deteriorate the process of economic growth in the long-run. → Portugal should increase investment on R and D to design new energy savings technology.

The EU in 2040: Envisioning an Inclusive Powerhouse for Innovation and Economic Growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foray, Dominique; Romme, Georges; Andersen, Per Dannemand

2016-01-01

The EU and its leadership is often criticized as lacking a coherent long-term vision on Europe’s future. Thus far, EU policy in the area of innovation and economic growth has been primarily framed as an effort to close the so-called innovation gap with USA, South-Korea, and other countries. In th...

Long-term energy futures: the critical role of technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grubler, A.

1999-01-01

The paper briefly reviews the results of a 5-year study conducted by IIASA jointly with the World Energy Council (WEC) on long term-energy perspectives. After summarizing the study's main findings, the paper addresses the crucial role of technological change in the evolution of long-term energy futures and in responding to key long-term uncertainties in the domains of energy demand growth, economics, as well as environmental protection. Based on most recent empirical and methodological findings, long-term dynamics of technological change portray a number of distinct features that need to be taken account of in technology and energy policy. First, success of innovation efforts and ultimate outcomes of technological are uncertain. Second, new, improved technologies are not a free good, but require continued dedicated efforts. Third, technological knowledge (as resulting from R and D and accumulation of experience, i.e. technological learning) exhibits characteristics of (uncertain) increasing returns. Forth, due to innovation - diffusion lags, technological interdependence, and infrastructure needs (network externalities), rates of change in large-scale energy systems are necessarily slow. This implies acting sooner rather than later as a contigency policy to respond to long-term social, economic and environmental uncertainties, most notably possible climate change. Rather than picking technological 'winners' the results of the IIASA-WEC scenario studies are seen most appropriate to guide technology and R and D portfolio analysis. Nonetheless, robust persistent patterns of technological change invariably occur across all scenarios. Examples of primising groups of technologies are given. The crucial importance of meeting long-energy demand in developing countries, assuring large-scale infrastructure investments, maintaining a strong and diversified R AND D protfolio, as well as to dvise new institutional mechnisms for technology development and diffusion for instance

Short-Run and Long-Run Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2014-10-02

Oct 2, 2014 ... panel time evidence and found negative effects of inflation on output. ... Ghana's economic growth performance as in most developing countries has been ...... Financial liberalization, financial development and growth in su-.

Fertility treatment: long-term growth and mental development of the children.

Science.gov (United States)

Bay, Bjørn

2014-10-01

Fertility treatment has been associated with obstetrical and perinatal complications. It is, however, uncertain whether fertility treatment or parental subfertility is associated with long-term development of the children. We aimed to assess the growth and mental health of children and adolescents conceived after fertility treatment compared to spontaneously conceived controls. First, we evaluated all previous studies comparing neurodevelopmental outcomes between children conceived after fertility treatment and spontaneous conceived controls. The systematic review clarified methodological limitations in the existing literature on the long-term development of children conceived after medical assisted reproduction. Although several studies had been published, large, well-controlled studies with long-term follow-up and thorough statistical adjustments were still few. Second, we evaluated the children's mental health by assessing the risk of mental disorders. We studied a population of 555,828 children conceived after spontaneous conception and 33,139 children conceived after fertility treatment with follow-up in 2012 when the children were 8-17 years old. The absolute risk and hazard ratio of overall and specific mental disorders were estimated while adjusting for potential confounding variables. Further, we estimated the association between subtypes of procedures, hormonal treatment, gamete types and cause of infertility on the one hand and the risk of mental disorders on the other. Children conceived after ovulation induction had a low, but significantly increased risks of autism spectrum disorders, hyperkinetic disorders, conduct, emotional, or social disorders, and tic disorders. Children conceived after IVF or ICSI showed no increased risk, except for a small risk of tic disorders. There was no risk systematically related to any specific type of hormone drug treatment. Thus, the increased risks may rely on residual confounding such as unknown parental factors

A multivariate causality test of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Ching-Chih

2010-01-01

This paper uses multivariate co-integration Granger causality tests to investigate the correlations between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China. Some researchers have argued that the adoption of a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption as a long term policy goal will result in a closed-form relationship, to the detriment of the economy. Therefore, a perspective that can make allowances for the fact that the exclusive pursuit of economic growth will increase energy consumption and CO 2 emissions is required; to the extent that such growth will have adverse effects with regard to global climate change. (author)

Impact of Currency Devaluation on Economic Growth of Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The primary aim of the study is to estimate the long run relationship between economic growth (RGDP) and currency devaluation. This study investigated the impact of currency devaluation on economic growth of Nigeria. This was achieved through a review of literature and a test of hypothesis. In order to generate the ...

Foreign direct investment and economic growth: A theoretical framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmore Mahembe

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The relationship between FDI and economic growth has attracted considerable attention over the years. Despite the important role played by FDI in economic growth, a number of policy-makers have not fully understood the theoretical linkage between FDI and economic growth. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to review the theoretical literature on the relationship between FDI and economic growth in a stylized fashion. The theoretical literature reviewed in this study show that FDI is a key contributor to the economic growth of the host country. FDI affects economic growth through two broad channels: (i FDI can encourage the adoption of new technologies in the production process through technological spillovers; and (ii FDI may stimulate knowledge transfers, both in terms of labour training and skill acquisition, and also by introducing alternative management practices and better organisational arrangements.

Electricity Consumption, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Nigeria

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Godwin Effiong Akpan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper applies a Multivariate Vector Error Correction (VECM framework to examine the long run and causal relationship between electricity consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Nigeria. Using annual time series data for 1970 to 2008, findings show that in the long run, economic growth is associated with increase carbon emissions, while an increase in electricity consumption leads to an increase in carbon emissions. These imply that Nigeria’s growth process is pollution intensive, while the negative relationship between electricity consumption (or positive relationship between electricity consumption and emissions in Nigeria is a clear indication that electricity consumption in the country has intensified carbon emissions. No support was obtained for the hypothesized environmental Kuznets curve (EKC. Granger-causality results confirm a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to carbon emissions, indicating that carbon emissions reduction policies could be pursued without reducing economic growth in Nigeria. No causality was found between electricity and growth, in either way, which further lends credence to the crisis in the Nigerian electricity sector. Overall, the paper submits that efficient planning and increased investment in electricity infrastructure development may be the crucial missing variable in the obtained neutrality hypothesis between electricity and growth.

The relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO_2 emissions: Empirical evidence from China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Shaojian; Li, Qiuying; Fang, Chuanglin; Zhou, Chunshan

2016-01-01

Following several decades of rapid economic growth, China has become the largest energy consumer and the greatest emitter of CO_2 in the world. Given the complex development situation faced by contemporary China, Chinese policymakers now confront the dual challenge of reducing energy use while continuing to foster economic growth. This study posits that a better understanding of the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO_2 emissions is necessary, in order for the Chinese government to develop the energy saving and emission reduction strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change. This paper investigates the cointegrating, temporally dynamic, and casual relationships that exist between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO_2 emissions in China, using data for the period 1990–2012. The study develops a comprehensive conceptual framework in order to perform this analysis. The results of cointegration tests suggest the existence of long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables, albeit with short dynamic adjustment mechanisms, indicating that the proportion of disequilibrium errors that can be adjusted in the next period will account for only a fraction of the changes. Further, impulse response analysis (which describes the reaction of any variable as a function of time in response to external shocks) found that the impact of a shock in CO_2 emissions on economic growth or energy consumption was only marginally significant. Finally, Granger casual relationships were found to exist between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO_2 emissions; specifically, a bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption was identified, and a unidirectional causal relationship was found to exist from energy consumption to CO_2 emissions. The findings have significant implications for both academics and practitioners, warning of the need to develop and implement long-term energy and economic

Fiscal Deficit and Its Impact on Economic Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh

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Mohammed Ershad Hussain

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The findings from the VECM for BBS data reveal that there is a positive and significant relationship between FD and GDPGR, supporting the Keynesian theory, while findings from the VECM for World Bank data indicate that the impact of Fiscal Deficit (FD on GDPGR is mild but negative and significant at the 5% level. This contradicts the Keynesian theory, but is in accord with Neo-classical theory which asserts that fiscal deficits lead to a drop in the GDP. Nevertheless, the government must strive to keep deficit under control, not to hamper growth, and expenditure ought to be set so as to avoid massive deficits leading to debt financing and the crowding-out effect of private investment. If deficits become unsustainable, it can lead to higher interest payments, and the government may well default. Although in the economic literature, there is no definitive conclusion as to whether fiscal deficit helps or hinders economic growth for any country, many argue that fiscal deficit leads to economic growth of a country, which cannot be achieved only through domestic savings, not enough for investment. It can be assumed safely that to some extent fiscal deficit is good for economic growth if the borrowed money is spent on beneficial projects, provided the return from such investments exceeds the funding cost. For future research work, it will be interesting to examine the relationships between government spending, economic growth and long-term interest rate for Bangladesh.

Long-term governance for sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martell, M.

2007-01-01

Meritxell Martell spoke of the long-term aspects of radioactive waste management. She pointed out that decision-making processes need to be framed within the context of sustainability, which means that a balance should be sought between scientific considerations, economic aspects and structural conditions. Focusing on structural aspects, Working Group 3 of COWAM-Spain came to the conclusion that the activity of the regulator is a key factor of long-term management. Another finding is that from a sustainability perspective multi-level governance is more effective for coping with the challenges of radioactive waste management than one tier of government-making decisions. The working group also felt that the current Local Information Committees need to evolve towards more institutionalized and legitimized mechanisms for long-term involvement. Ms. Martell introduced a study comparing the efficiency of economic instruments to advance sustainable development in nuclear communities vs. municipalities in mining areas. The study found that funds transferred to nuclear zones had become a means to facilitate local acceptance of nuclear facilities rather than a means to promote socio-economic development. Another finding is that economic instruments are not sufficient guarantees of sustainable development by themselves; additional preconditions include leadership, vision and entrepreneur-ship on the part of community leaders, private or public investments, among others. Finally, Ms. Martell summarised the challenges faced by the Spanish radioactive waste management programme, which include the need for strategic thinking, designing the future in a participatory fashion, and working with local and regional governments and citizens to devise mechanisms for social learning, economic development and environmental protection. (author)

Long-term economic consequences of child maltreatment: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thielen, Frederick W; Ten Have, Margreet; de Graaf, Ron; Cuijpers, Pim; Beekman, Aartjan; Evers, Silvia; Smit, Filip

2016-12-01

Child maltreatment is prognostically associated with long-term detrimental consequences for mental health. These consequences are reflected in higher costs due to health service utilization and productivity losses in adulthood. An above-average sense of mastery can have protective effects in the pathogenesis of mental disorders and thus potentially cushion adverse impacts of maltreatment. This should be reflected in lower costs in individuals with a history of child maltreatment and a high sense of mastery. The aims of the study were to prognostically estimate the excess costs of health service uptake and productivity losses in adults with a history of child maltreatment and to evaluate how mastery may act as an effect modifier. Data were used on 5618 individuals participating in the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We focussed on measures of child maltreatment (emotional neglect, physical, psychological and sexual abuse) and economic costs owing to health-care uptake and productivity losses when people with a history of abuse have grown into adulthood. We evaluated how mastery acted as an effect modifier. Estimates were adjusted for demographics and parental psychopathology. Post-stratification weights were used to account for initial non-response and dropout. Due to the non-normal distribution of the costs data, sample errors, 95 % confidence intervals, and p values were calculated using non-parametric bootstrapping (1000 replications). Exposure to child maltreatment occurs frequently (6.9-24.8 %) and is associated with substantial excess costs in adulthood. To illustrate, adjusted annual excess costs attributable to emotional neglect are €1,360 (95 % CI: 615-215) per adult. Mastery showed a significant effect on these figures: annual costs were €1,608 in those with a low sense of mastery, but only €474 in those with a firmer sense of mastery. Child maltreatment has profound mental health consequences and is associated with

Long-term trends in radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopatin, E. (Univ. of Joensuu (Finland)); Kolstroem, T. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar (Russian Federation)); Spiecker, H. (Univ. of Freiburg (Germany))

2008-07-01

Komi is situated on the eastern boundary of the European part of Russia, in the boreal region where large areas of natural forest still exist. Using radial growth measurements it was possible to attain positive long-term trends of growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) in the Komi Republic. Increases in the radial growth of Siberian spruce in the forest-tundra were 134% and in the northern taiga zone 35% over successive 50-year periods from 1901 to 1950 and from 1951 to 2000. Respectively, in the middle taiga zone a 76% increase in radial growth was found (over 100 years), whilst in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The increase in radial growth of Scots pine in the northern taiga zone was 32%. In the middle taiga zone the radial growth increase in Scots pine was 55% and in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The long-term growth trends of Komi were compared with those in other parts of Europe. (orig.)

INFORMATION AND TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EXPERIENCE FROM NIGERIA

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Wasiu Ishola Oyeniran

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The study examines the effect of investment in telecommunication infrastructure on economic growth in Nigeria. Using time series data from 1980 and 2012, the study employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds testing approach proposed by Pesaran et al., (2001 to estimate the long run and short run effect of investment in telecommunication infrastructure on economic growth. The result from cointegration test showed presence of long run relationship between dependent and all explanatory variables. The study found foreign direct investment in information and communication technology more effective in improving and raising economic growth in Nigeria than government investment. The output from Chow breakpoint test shows that the liberalization of telecommunication industry introduced in 1992 has significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, it is imperative for Nigerian government to increase its spending on telecom and attract more foreign investment in telecommunication in order to boost productivity and economic growth.

Catch-up growth assessment in long-term physically neglected and emotionally abused preschool age male children.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliván, Gonzalo

2003-01-01

To assess the catch-up growth of long-term physically neglected and emotionally abused preschool male children who have entered foster residential care and remained 1 year after initial placement. Longitudinal study over a 7-year period (1994-2001). So that a child was eligible for the study, three selection criteria were included: (1) aged between 24 and 48 months at the time of entry into residential facility, (2) having suffered both long-term (more than 6 months) physically neglected and emotionally abused, and (3) having stayed in foster care for 1 year after initial placement. Weight, height, and head circumference were established upon entry and re-assessed 1 year after initial placement, calculating the annual growth velocity. Results were compared with normal regional longitudinal standards of reference (Z score). Student's t test was used to assess statistically significant differences. During the study period, 87 children aged between 24 and 48 months (54 male/33 female) were admitted to residential facility after having suffered both long-term physical neglect and emotional abuse. Nevertheless, only 20 children (23% of the total admissions) met the third selection criteria (having remained 1 year after initial placement). Of these children, all were males and at placement they were between the ages of 30 and 42 months, with an average age of 36 months (1.9 SD). At placement, the analyzed parameters were below the normal standards, showing a statistically significant difference for height (Z score = -1.29; p = .008) and weight (Z score = -.75; p = .038). The annual growth velocity for all parameters was above the normal standards showing a statistically significant difference for height (Z score = +1.43; p = .009). One year after initial placement, the significant differences for height (Z score = -.68; p = .102) and weight (Z score = -.31; p = .435) with respect to the normal standards disappeared, though still remained below, showing a significant

Effects of capital markets development on economic growth of Western Balkan countries

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MSc. Artor Nuhiu

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Through this research paper we have tried to elaborate the issue whether capital market development is an alternative towards economic growth and economic prosperity of developing countries in general, the Western Balkan countries in particular. The focus of the paper is to study the effects of proper functioning of capital markets and their im-pact on increasing the level of savings, capital investments and in locating relevant resources for long-term financing of the economy. The research paper presents positive and negative arguments, linking the establishment and development of a capital market and its impact on economic development of developing countries, particularly Western Balkan countries.

Individualism, innovation, and long-run growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Roland, Gerard

2011-12-27

Countries having a more individualist culture have enjoyed higher long-run growth than countries with a more collectivist culture. Individualist culture attaches social status rewards to personal achievements and thus, provides not only monetary incentives for innovation but also social status rewards, leading to higher rates of innovation and economic growth.

Energy consumption, pollutant emissions and economic growth in South Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menyah, Kojo [London Metropolitan Business School, London Metropolitan University (United Kingdom); Wolde-Rufael, Yemane [Independent Researcher (United Kingdom)

2010-11-15

This paper examines the long-run and the causal relationship between economic growth, pollutant emissions and energy consumption for South Africa for the period 1965-2006 in a multivariate framework which includes labour and capital as additional variables. Using the bound test approach to cointegration, we found a short-run as well as a long-run relationship among the variables with a positive and a statistically significant relationship between pollutant emissions and economic growth. Further, applying a modified version of the Granger causality test we also found a unidirectional causality running from pollutant emissions to economic growth; from energy consumption to economic growth and from energy consumption to CO{sub 2} emissions all without a feedback. The econometric evidence suggests that South Africa has to sacrifice economic growth or reduce its energy consumption per unit of output or both in order to reduce pollutant emissions. In the long-run however, it is possible to meet the energy needs of the country and at the same time reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by developing energy alternatives to coal, the main source of CO{sub 2} emissions. However, the econometric results upon which the policy suggestions are made should be interpreted with care, as they may not be sufficiently robust enough to categorically warrant the choice of an unpalatable policy option by South Africa. (author)

Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jahangir Alam, Mohammad; Ara Begum, Ismat; Buysse, Jeroen; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2012-01-01

The paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy consumption, electricity consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Bangladesh. First, we have tested cointegration relationships using the Johansen bi-variate cointegration model. This is complemented with an analysis of an auto-regressive distributed lag model to examine the results' robustness. Then, the Granger short-run, the long-run and strong causality are tested with a vector error correction modelling framework. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth both in the short and the long-run while a bi-directional long-run causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth but no causal relationship exists in short-run. The strong causality results indicate bi-directional causality for both the cases. A uni-directional causality runs from energy consumption to CO 2 emission for the short-run but feedback causality exists in the long-run. CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run. An important policy implication is that energy (electricity as well) can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth in Bangladesh. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand. - Highlights: ► Dynamic causality among energy and electricity consumption, CO 2 and economic growth. ► Uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth. ► Bi-directional causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth. ► Feedback causality exists between CO 2 emission to energy consumption. ► CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run.

THE CORRELATION BETWEEN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AND THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA

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Dragomir Laurentiu

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The increasing productivity of production factors, due to progresses in science and technology is today the engine of economic growth. The economic theory managed to endogenize the technical progress, first as a result of the unintended activities of firms, then as the result of profit driven behaviour of economic agents. In globalization the stock of knowledge becomes available also to developing countries and the production technologies and their employment are more democratic regarding the availability. For the developing countries it still remains the problem of financial resources and availability. Developing new technologies has a prohibitive costs, at least until the moment in which large scale production allows for the reduction of costs. Long term economic growth will depend on the creation of global technology stock, including the leverage effect of sustained RxD. In this paper we will approach the progress of Romania in the area of knowledge base economy, especially regarding the policies in the RxD sector.

Long-term effects of prenatal x-ray of human females: growth and development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.B.; Tonascia, J.

1981-01-01

Experimental studies and studies of survivors of in-utero exposure to atomic bomb blasts have shown significant stunting of growth and mental retardation following these exposures. Central nervous system damage following very low dosage of x-ray at around the time of birth has also been observed in experimental animals. This long term followup study of 1458 human females exposed in-utero to diagnostic x-rays and of 1458 matched unexposed controls studied in Baltimore, Maryland, included measurements of height, weight, and school achievement. Women who had been exposed to x-rays in-utero were significantly shorter in their mid-twenties than were their matched, unexposed controls, even after adjustment for other social and economic factors. However, additional followup revealed that mothers of exposed women were also shorter than the control mothers. Short stature appeared to be a selective factor for x-ray during pregnancy (mostly pelvimetry, 1947 to 1952). Mothers' and daughters' heights were similarly correlated among exposed and controlled mother-daughter pairs, suggesting that the height differences between exposed daughters and their controls were due to these selective factors rather than to any direct effect of radiation on growth. Exposed women reported poorer school achievement than control women. However, except for a higher proportion of exposed women leaving school because of pregnancy, these measurements were no longer significantly different when rates were simultaneously adjusted for socioeconomic differences between exposed and control women

Nuclear energy-economic growth nexus in OECD countries. A panel data analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozcan, Burcu; Ari, Ayse

2016-01-01

The relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in 13 OECD countries from 1980 to 2012 is analyzed. The panel causality results supported the feedback hypothesis in both the short-run and long-run. There is a positive relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. As such, nuclear energy consumption and economic growth complement and reinforce each other. Nuclear energy conservation policies may negatively affect economic growth rates.

Nuclear energy-economic growth nexus in OECD countries. A panel data analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ozcan, Burcu [Firat Univ., Elazig (Turkey). Dept. of Economics; Ari, Ayse [Nigde Univ. (Turkey). Dept. of Economics

2016-01-15

The relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in 13 OECD countries from 1980 to 2012 is analyzed. The panel causality results supported the feedback hypothesis in both the short-run and long-run. There is a positive relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. As such, nuclear energy consumption and economic growth complement and reinforce each other. Nuclear energy conservation policies may negatively affect economic growth rates.

'Decoupling' of economic growth and energy consumption - a new strategy of energy policy or merely a new

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Horn, M

1979-03-01

The relations between the economic development and energy consumption is explained and their complexity is pointed out. The development of the official energy prognoses since 1973 and the development of economic growth and energy consumption from 1951-1976 show that these two developments had been linked together during certain periods but that the coefficient of elasticity shows a falling trend in the long term. The parameters determining the relation between economic growth and energy consumption are discussed: energy prices, capacity load, investments and technological innovations. At the same time the limits of a possible decoupling are demonstrated.

Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fei Li, E-mail: lfly2004@yahoo.com.c [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China); Dong Suocheng; Xue Li [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China); Liang Quanxi [Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632 (China); Yang Wangzhou [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China)

2011-02-15

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate two cross-regional groups, namely the east China and west China groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48-0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41-0.43% in China. The economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east China is over 2 times that of the west China. At present, China is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0.2 to 0.3 by the great effort. - Research Highlights: {yields} The long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption in China is examined. {yields} GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions is estimated. {yields} Economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and relies on the consumption of the energy more than the west China.

Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fei Li; Dong Suocheng; Xue Li; Liang Quanxi; Yang Wangzhou

2011-01-01

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate two cross-regional groups, namely the east China and west China groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48-0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41-0.43% in China. The economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east China is over 2 times that of the west China. At present, China is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0.2 to 0.3 by the great effort. - Research Highlights: → The long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption in China is examined. → GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions is estimated. → Economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and relies on the consumption of the energy more than the west China.

Investigating Causality Between Agricultural and Economic Growth in Iran

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A. Falsafian

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Although rate of economic growth is not the only way to measure economic development, it is relatively more important than the other indices. Agriculture sector plays the main role on economic growth and sustainable development. In addition, it has significant impact on most social, political and economic issues by producing strategic food products for ever-increasing population. Therefore, the present study investigated causal relationship between agricultural and economic growth in Iran. To this end, the Granjer’s causality test was used after employing the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test to see if the variables under consideration are stationary. The result showed that there is a long learn feedback relationship between these variables and agricultural developments.

Growth hormone therapy for children born small for gestational age: height gain is less dose dependent over the long term than over the short term.

Science.gov (United States)

de Zegher, Francis; Hokken-Koelega, Anita

2005-04-01

Approximately 3% of children are born small for gestational age (SGA), and approximately 10% of SGA children maintain a small body size throughout childhood and often into adult life. Among short SGA children, growth hormone (GH) therapy increases short-term growth in a dose-dependent manner; experience with long-term therapy is limited. To delineate the dose dependency of long-term height gain among short SGA children receiving GH therapy. We performed an epianalysis of the first adult height data for SGA children (n = 28) enrolled in 3 randomized trials comparing the growth-promoting efficacy of 2 continuous GH regimens (33 or 67 microg/kg per day for approximately 10 years, starting at approximately 5 years of age); in addition, we performed a meta-analysis of the adult height results published previously and those presented here. Epianalysis outcomes (n = 28) suggested that adult height increased more with a higher-dose regimen than with a lower-dose regimen. In the meta-analysis (n = 82), the higher-dose regimen was found to elicit a long-term height gain superior to that achieved with the lower-dose regimen by a mean of 0.4 SD (approximately 1 inch). Children who were shorter at the start of therapy experienced more long-term height gain. These findings confirm GH therapy as an effective and safe approach to reduce the adult height deficit that short SGA children otherwise face. In addition, the first meta-analysis indicated that height gain is less dose dependent over the long term than over the short term, at least within the dose range explored to date. For SGA children whose stature is not extremely short, current data support the use of a GH dose of approximately 33 microg/kg per day from start to adult height, particularly if treatment starts at a young age; shorter children (for example, height below -3 SD) might benefit from an approach in which short-term catch-up growth is achieved with a higher dose (> or =50 microg/kg per day) and long-term growth

BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE EMISSION OF CO2

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Cleyzer Adrian Cunha

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of paper is verifying empirically the relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions in Brazil in the period 1980-2006. The scope of work was limited to this natural resource due to its role in economic activity, as an important input in the production process in the Brazilian energy matrix. Among the main results is that there is a long-term relationship and simultaneous causality between variables and GDP per capita CO2 emissions. This evidence, coupled with the fact that the series used were not stationary in level, impossible to estimate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC, which is the main theoretical basis used in empirical work related to the theme. The VAR / VEC has been estimated and found elasticity between economic growth and CO2 emission was 7.32, ie, in the long run, we can infer that an increase of 1% in GDP per capita increases by 7, 32% CO2 emissions.

The Data of Labor Market In Turkey and Time Series Analysis On Economic Growth (2000:01-2013:03

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Bilal Kargı

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In the present study, labor markets were analyzed, in particular, the reasons of low labor force rate to make sense based on the data of Turkish economy. While in the advanced economies, the labor force rate is quite high and has small fluctuations around a certain extent over a long-term. In the Turkish economy, prominently falls in a long-term. Turkey is ranked at 18th by population size and ranked at 17th by GDP in the world and although its population effectively provides labor force rate, it will be highly effective on its economic growth. The study based on cointegration analysis with long-term labor data with respect to the economy of Turkey concluded that labor variables concern with GDP and cointegration in a long-term. In particular, when the presence of strong relation between the growth and the non-institutional population is produced, it is emphasized that the present relation between the growth and the labor variable isn’t strong enough.

Social murder: the long-term effects of conservative economic policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Chernomas, Robert; Hudson, Ian

2009-01-01

In this article, the authors take inspiration from Engels's 1845 account of the social murder committed by British capitalists to assess the contemporary impact of conservative economic policy, which they define as policies designed to maximize the accumulation of profit while socializing the associated risks and costs. Conservative economists argue that if their policy prescription is followed, it will produce broad-based economic benefits including more rapid growth, higher incomes, less illness, and, even, more democracy. The authors contrast the myth of conservative economic policy with the reality. What conservative economic policy has actually accomplished is a redistribution of wealth and power away from the vast majority of the population to firms and their owners. The effects of these policies on citizens and workers have been socially determined economic instability, unemployment, poverty, inequality, dangerous products, and infectious and chronic disease.

Population growth and economic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Narayana, D L

1984-01-01

This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

Banks and economic growth in developing countries: What about Islamic banks?

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Saida Daly

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Islamic banks (IBs have a significant role in the growth of gross domestic product of the developing countries. The Islamic participatory schemes integrate the assets of lenders and borrowers. They allow enable IBs to lend on a longer term basis to create projects with higher risk-return profiles and, thus, to support economic growth. Our investigation examines the contribution of Islamic finance in economic growth. Using a panel data-set, we compare between IBs and conventional banks in their adding to economic growth. We studied a sample of 120 banks between 2005 and 2012. By means of three ordinary least-square regressions, our empirical investigation reveals that the development of non-usurious banks supports economic growth. Moreover, the cooperation between the two financing modes improves economic growth. The integration of this new funding never neglected the role of the conventional method of financing. The practice of IBs is also away from their theoretical mode in terms of participation results.

Estimating the Relationship between Economic Growth and Health Expenditures in ECO Countries Using Panel Cointegration Approach

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Nahid Hatam

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Increasing knowledge of people about health leads to raising the share of health expenditures in government budget continuously; although governors do not like this rise because of budget limitations. This study aimed to find the association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. We added health capital in Solow model and used the panel cointegration approach to show the importance of health expenditures in economic growth. For estimating the model, first we used Pesaran cross-sectional dependency test, after that we used Pesaran CADF unit root test, and then we used Westerlund panel cointegration test to show if there is a long-term association between variables or not. After that, we used chaw test, Breusch-Pagan test and Hausman test to find the form of the model. Finally, we used OLS estimator for panel data. Findings showed that there is a positive, strong association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. If governments increase investing in health, the total production of the country will be increased, so health expenditures are considered as an investing good. The effects of health expenditures in developing countries must be higher than those in developed countries. Such studies can help policy makers to make long-term decisions.

Estimating the Relationship between Economic Growth and Health Expenditures in ECO Countries Using Panel Cointegration Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatam, Nahid; Tourani, Sogand; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah; Bastani, Peivand

2016-02-01

Increasing knowledge of people about health leads to raising the share of health expenditures in government budget continuously; although governors do not like this rise because of budget limitations. This study aimed to find the association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. We added health capital in Solow model and used the panel cointegration approach to show the importance of health expenditures in economic growth. For estimating the model, first we used Pesaran cross-sectional dependency test, after that we used Pesaran CADF unit root test, and then we used Westerlund panel cointegration test to show if there is a long-term association between variables or not. After that, we used chaw test, Breusch-Pagan test and Hausman test to find the form of the model. Finally, we used OLS estimator for panel data. Findings showed that there is a positive, strong association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. If governments increase investing in health, the total production of the country will be increased, so health expenditures are considered as an investing good. The effects of health expenditures in developing countries must be higher than those in developed countries. Such studies can help policy makers to make long-term decisions.

Economic growth, ecological economics, and wilderness preservation

Science.gov (United States)

Brian Czech

2000-01-01

Economic growth is a perennial national goal. Perpetual economic growth and wilderness preservation are mutually exclusive. Wilderness scholarship has not addressed this conflict. The economics profession is unlikely to contribute to resolution, because the neoclassical paradigm holds that there is no limit to economic growth. A corollary of the paradigm is that...

The Effect of Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Industrialization on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Guangdong; Fang, Chuanglin; Wang, Shaojian; Sun, Siao

2016-11-01

Rapid economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization in China have led to extremely severe air pollution that causes increasing negative effects on human health, visibility, and climate change. However, the influence mechanisms of these anthropogenic factors on fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations are poorly understood. In this study, we combined panel data and econometric methods to investigate the main anthropogenic factors that contribute to increasing PM 2.5 concentrations in China at the prefecture level from 1999 to 2011. The results showed that PM 2.5 concentrations and three anthropogenic factors were cointegrated. The panel Fully Modified Least Squares and panel Granger causality test results indicated that economic growth, industrialization, and urbanization increased PM 2.5 concentrations in the long run. The results implied that if China persists in its current development pattern, economic growth, industrialization and urbanization will inevitably lead to increased PM 2.5 emissions in the long term. Industrialization was the principal factor that affected PM 2.5 concentrations for the total panel, the industry-oriented panel and the service-oriented panel. PM 2.5 concentrations can be reduced at the cost of short-term economic growth and industrialization. However, reducing the urbanization level is not an efficient way to decrease PM 2.5 pollutions in the short term. The findings also suggest that a rapid reduction of PM 2.5 concentrations relying solely on adjusting these anthropogenic factors is difficult in a short-term for the heavily PM 2.5 -polluted panel. Moreover, the Chinese government will have to seek much broader policies that favor a decoupling of these coupling relationships.

ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN TERMS OF THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS

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Elena Mihaela ILIESCU

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Considering that from a qualitative point of view, human activity in general, has recorded a significant leap along with the debut of entrepreneurial activities, from the “creative destruction” perspective through competition of Joseph Scumpeter until present, entrepreneurial theory and practice reveals a generally accepted point of view: entrepreneurship, regardless of the form under which it is carried out, represents the engine for the market economy system, the determining factor of competitiveness growth and sustainable economic growth. Once aware of the positive impact it has on the economy and society, entrepreneurship has and is being promoted at a national level, European and global by creating, coordinating and implementing a strategic framework, legislative and financially favorable. However, the socio-economic data analysis shows that, economies having an analog development level, record different entrepreneurial rates, that similar entrepreneurial activities have a different impact on economic development or that, as the economies record a higher development level, the interest for initiating new businesses declines. From this perspective, the purpose of this paper is to underline and promote the entrepreneurship’s role as a fundamental source for increasing growth potential and national and regional development in the long term, and to highlight, based on empirical data, the interdependency, the qualitative and quantitative correlation between the entrepreneurial rate and the competitiveness level of a country.

Determinants of Economic Growth in Malaysia 1970-2010

OpenAIRE

Fauzi HUSSIN; Norazrul Mat ROS; Mohd Saifoul Zamzuri NOOR

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the determinants of economic growth in Malaysia. Trade openness, foreign direct investment, government development expenditure and gross fixed capital formation are used as indicators of economic growth. The study used time series data for the period 1970 to 2010. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration approach was applied to determine the long-run relationship between the variables. The study found that trade openness and foreign direct investment have significant bu...

Public Debt, Corruption and Sustainable Economic Growth

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Eunji Kim

2017-03-01

Full Text Available There are many studies that look into the relationship between public debt and economic growth. It is hard to find, however, research addressing the role of corruption between these two variables. Noticing this vacancy in current literature, we strive to investigate the effect of corruption on the relationship between public debt and economic growth. For this purpose, the pooled ordinary least squares (OLS, fixed effects models and the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM models (Arellano-Bond, 1991 are estimated with data of 77 countries from 1990 to 2014. The empirical results show that the interaction term between public debt and corruption is statistically significant. This confirms the hypothesis that the effect of public debt on economic growth is a function of corruption. The sign of the marginal effect is negative in corrupt countries, but public debt enhances economic growth within countries that are not corrupt, i.e., highly transparent.

The Nexus between Higher Education and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan

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Amatul R. Chaudhary

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The study investigates the role of higher education in economic growth for Pakistan between 1972 and 2005 using the application of Johansen Cointegration and Toda & Yamamoto (1995 Causality approach in Vector Autoregressive (VAR framework. It examines whether higher education affect long run economic growth in Pakistan. The empirical analysis reveals that there is a long run relationship between economic growth and higher education, which suggests that these variables are necessary for each other. The empirical results of causality test indicate that there exists a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to higher education and no other direction of causality found between these variables.

The relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO{sub 2} emissions: Empirical evidence from China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Shaojian, E-mail: 1987wangshaojian@163.com [School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275 (China); Li, Qiuying [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China); Fang, Chuanglin, E-mail: fangcl@igsnrr.ac.cn [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China); Zhou, Chunshan [School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275 (China)

2016-01-15

Following several decades of rapid economic growth, China has become the largest energy consumer and the greatest emitter of CO{sub 2} in the world. Given the complex development situation faced by contemporary China, Chinese policymakers now confront the dual challenge of reducing energy use while continuing to foster economic growth. This study posits that a better understanding of the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO{sub 2} emissions is necessary, in order for the Chinese government to develop the energy saving and emission reduction strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change. This paper investigates the cointegrating, temporally dynamic, and casual relationships that exist between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO{sub 2} emissions in China, using data for the period 1990–2012. The study develops a comprehensive conceptual framework in order to perform this analysis. The results of cointegration tests suggest the existence of long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables, albeit with short dynamic adjustment mechanisms, indicating that the proportion of disequilibrium errors that can be adjusted in the next period will account for only a fraction of the changes. Further, impulse response analysis (which describes the reaction of any variable as a function of time in response to external shocks) found that the impact of a shock in CO{sub 2} emissions on economic growth or energy consumption was only marginally significant. Finally, Granger casual relationships were found to exist between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO{sub 2} emissions; specifically, a bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption was identified, and a unidirectional causal relationship was found to exist from energy consumption to CO{sub 2} emissions. The findings have significant implications for both academics and practitioners, warning of the need to develop and implement long-term

The Long and Short Run Effects between Unemployment and Economic Growth In Europe = Avrupa’da İşsizlik ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasında Uzun ve Kısa Dönemli Etkiler

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferda Yerdelen TATOĞLU

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the movement of unemployment rate and the long and short term relationships between unemployment rate and economic growth rate are examined for individuals and pooled cases in European countries over the period 1977-2008. Several panel techniques are used for non-stationary panels and thereby some evidence are found for unemployment hysteresis in all European Countries. The Okun’s coefficients are also estimated. The results show that the validity of Okun’s Law and the significance of the relationship between economic growth rate and unemployment rate vary between countries.

Decoupling Economic Growth From Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the EU Countries

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Mariola Piłatowska

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to look at the long-run equilibrium relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth (the EKC hypothesis in an asymmetric framework using the non-linear threshold cointegration. In order to avoid the problem of omitted variables bias, the dynamic relationship between pollutant emissions, economic development and energy consumption are also examined (the extended EKC model. The research hypothesis is that the economic growth decouples from CO2 emissions growth, i.e. the EKC hypothesis holds. The empirical study is carried out for the European Union countries (EU-14 divided into three groups depending on a category of knowledge-advanced economies in order to explain the differences in the dynamic linkage between CO2 emissions and economic growth, as well as in the energy consumption impact on this cointegrating relationship. We have found that the EKC hypothesis is valid for the most high-level and some middle-level knowledge advanced economies. The addition of energy consumption to the standard EKC model has improved the results in terms of the presence of linear or threshold cointegration for all low-level knowledge based economies. Moreover, the causality pattern between CO2 emissions and income has changed after energy consumption adding to the EKC model and some similarities are found in the countries belonging to the same category of knowledge-advanced economies

Stock Market and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria

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Erasmus L Owusu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between stock market evolution and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. The study employs Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL-bounds testing approach and a combined stock market indicators index to examine the relationship. The paper finds that, in the long run, stock markets have no positive and at best mixed effect on economic growth in Nigeria. This finding supports the numerous past studies, which have reported negative/mixed or inconclusive results on the effects of stock markets on economic growth. The paper, therefore, concludes that, there is the need for increasing financial deepening and the removal of bottlenecks in the financial sectors of the economy by providing further public and institutional education on the value of stock markets for economic development.

The Services Sector and Economic Growth in Mauritius. A Bounds ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper examines the long run and short run impact of the services sector on economic growth in Mauritius. Using an augmented aggregate production function growth model, we apply the bounds testing approach to cointegration to assess the impact of different activities in the services sector on economic performance ...

Economics of Sustainable Development. Competitiveness and Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorel AILENEI

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Economic growth is one of the most important issues of humanity. Both in national economies and world economy, recession and prosperity periods are regularly succeeding with different amplitudes. But beyond these fluctuations and their effects, the results are important: performance and economic growth. Because of the problematical issue of economic growth, the authors are trying to critically reflect on the economic growth concept and on its implications on the praxis area. Although there is a large literature about economic growth modeling, it is intriguing that there still are some serious obstacles for conceptualization and praxis. Only the simple fact that the economic growth process needs serious thinking on the time dimension is sufficient for understanding the real difficulties of this problematical issue. As for the economic growth praxis, a clear analysis of the interests system within an economy is needed. Without trying to find miraculous solutions for the economic growth issue, the authors suggest a clear and correct analysis of this important subject.

Linkages between Income Inequality, International Remittances and Economic Growth in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ur Rehman, Ijaz; Ahmad Mahdzan, Nurul Shahnaz

2013-01-01

This paper explores the dynamic linkages between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth using time series data over the period of 1976-2006 in case of Pakistan. The cointegration analysis based on the bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth. Our results reveal that income inequality and international remittances enhance economic growth. The causality analysis based on innov...

Financial deepening and economic growth in nigeria (1981-2012: A managerial economic perspective

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Anthony Igwe

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to determine the impact of financial deepening on economic growth in Nigeria. The supply leading hypothesis was adopted as the theoretical framework of the study. Data for analysis was for the period 1981-2012 obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The explanatory variables were logged values of broad money supply/GDP and Credit to the private sector/GDP. The times series data were tested for stationarity using the ADF unit root tests of stationarity and were found to be stationary at first difference. The Engle-Granger Cointegration technique and Error correction model were used for the test of long run relationship. Findings reveal that money supply (MS is positive and weakly significant in determining economic growth. However, credit to the private sector was negative and not significant in the short run. The speed of adjustment of the ECM is 25.51%. This implies that if there are short run fluctuations, GDP will converge to its long run equilibrium path at a speed of about 25.51% in each period .The conclusion is that financial deepening does not have the desired impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Hence, there is a need for increase and improvement in access to private credit to enhance economic growth and investment

The relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shaojian; Li, Qiuying; Fang, Chuanglin; Zhou, Chunshan

2016-01-15

Following several decades of rapid economic growth, China has become the largest energy consumer and the greatest emitter of CO2 in the world. Given the complex development situation faced by contemporary China, Chinese policymakers now confront the dual challenge of reducing energy use while continuing to foster economic growth. This study posits that a better understanding of the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions is necessary, in order for the Chinese government to develop the energy saving and emission reduction strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change. This paper investigates the cointegrating, temporally dynamic, and casual relationships that exist between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in China, using data for the period 1990-2012. The study develops a comprehensive conceptual framework in order to perform this analysis. The results of cointegration tests suggest the existence of long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables, albeit with short dynamic adjustment mechanisms, indicating that the proportion of disequilibrium errors that can be adjusted in the next period will account for only a fraction of the changes. Further, impulse response analysis (which describes the reaction of any variable as a function of time in response to external shocks) found that the impact of a shock in CO2 emissions on economic growth or energy consumption was only marginally significant. Finally, Granger casual relationships were found to exist between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions; specifically, a bi-directional causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption was identified, and a unidirectional causal relationship was found to exist from energy consumption to CO2 emissions. The findings have significant implications for both academics and practitioners, warning of the need to develop and implement long-term energy and economic policies in

The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Stock Returns : Evidence From Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet ŞENTÜRK

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Financial development is one of the most important determinants of the economic development. Financial developments in Turkey began in the early 1980s and still have continued. During this period, it has survived a severe interaction between financial development and economic growth. In this study, the causality relationship between stock returns and economic growth in Turkey it was analysed over the period 1998Q2-2014Q2. In this context; firstly, Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto and Frequency Domain causality tests were applied in order to understand the causality relationship between the two variables. As a result of the Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is no relation of causality between the variables, but according to Frequency Domain causality test stock returns cause the economic growth in short term and economic growth cause stock returns in medium term.

Poverty and Economic Growth in Swaziland: An Empirical Investigation

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Angelique G. Nindi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the causal relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth in Swaziland during the period 1980–2011. Unlike some of the previous studies, the current study uses the newly developed ARDL-bounds testing approach to co-integration, and the ECM-based Granger causality method to examine this linkage. The study also incorporates financial development as a third variable affecting both poverty reduction and economic growth – thereby leading to a trivariate model. The results of this study show that economic growth does not Granger cause poverty reduction in Swaziland – either in the short run or in the long run. Instead, the study finds a causal flow from poverty reduction to economic growth in the short run. These findings, however, are not surprising, given the high level of income inequality in Swaziland. Studies have shown that when the level of income inequality is too high, economic growth alone may not necessarily lead to poverty reduction.

Essays on industrial structure and economic growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordaas, Hildegunn Kyvik

1997-01-01

The book is a thesis submitted for the degree of dr. polit. at the University of Bergen. It has chapters on economic development and industrial structure, trade and growth with static and dynamic economies of scale, terms of trade and economic growth in a world of constrained capital mobility, how liberalization of trade in services may conserve natural reserves, some reasons why capital does not flow from rich to poor counties and finally on South African manufacturing industries - catching up or falling behind

Balance of Payments Constrained Economic Growth in Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

African Journal of Economic Review, Volume V, Issue II, July 2017 ... between economic growth and current account balance equilibrium. .... With these precedents, there is a need to analyze the degree to which balance of payments .... With this result, we can now investigate the long run relationship between our variables.

Causal independence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia: Evidence from a non-parametric bootstrapped causality test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wesseh, Presley K.; Zoumara, Babette

2012-01-01

This contribution investigates causal interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia and proposes application of a bootstrap methodology. To better reflect causality, employment is incorporated as additional variable. The study demonstrates evidence of distinct bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Additionally, the results show that employment in Liberia Granger causes economic growth and apply irrespective of the short-run or long-run. Evidence from a Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the asymptotic Granger causality test suffers size distortion problem for Liberian data, suggesting that the bootstrap technique employed in this study is more appropriate. Given the empirical results, implications are that energy expansion policies like energy subsidy or low energy tariff for instance, would be necessary to cope with demand exerted as a result of economic growth in Liberia. Furthermore, Liberia might have the performance of its employment generation on the economy partly determined by adequate energy. Therefore, it seems fully justified that a quick shift towards energy production based on clean energy sources may significantly slow down economic growth in Liberia. Hence, the government’s target to implement a long-term strategy to make Liberia a carbon neutral country, and eventually less carbon dependent by 2050 is understandable. - Highlights: ► Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia investigated. ► There is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth. ► Energy expansion policies are necessary to cope with demand from economic growth. ► Asymptotic Granger causality test suffers size distortion problem for Liberian data. ► The bootstrap methodology employed in our study is more appropriate.

Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat

2012-01-01

This paper investigates the long-run and the causal relationship between greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth for Canadian industrial sectors over the period 1990–2007. The empirical findings suggest that in the long-run equilibrium, energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions whereas a non-linear relationship is found between greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve. The short-run dynamics conveys that there is a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to greenhouse gas emissions; from economic growth to greenhouse gas emissions and a weak unidirectional causality running from greenhouse gas emissions to energy consumption; from economic growth to energy consumption. In the long-run however, there seems to be a weak one way causality flowing from energy consumption and economic growth to greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: ► A long-run and a causal relationship between greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth is investigated. ► Energy consumption has a positive impact on greenhouse gas emissions in the long run. ► Unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption and economic growth to greenhouse gas emissions. ► A weak unidirectional causality runs from greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth to energy consumption.

In vitro generation of long-term repopulating hematopoietic stem cells by fibroblast growth factor-1

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Haan, G; Weersing, E; Dontje, B; van Os, R; Bystrykh, LV; Vellenga, E; Miller, G

The role of fibroblast growth factors and their receptors (FGFRs) in the regulation of normal hematopoietic stem cells is unknown. Here we show that, in mouse bone marrow, long-term repopulating stem cells are found exclusively in the FGFR(+) cell fraction. During differentiation toward committed

Essays on long-term mortality and interest rate risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Kort, J.P.

2017-01-01

This dissertation comprises a study of long-term risks which play a major role in actuarial science. In Part I we analyse long-term mortality risk and its impact on consumption and investment decisions of economic agents, while Part II focuses on the mathematical modelling of long-term interest

Political institutions as substitute for democracy: a political economy analysis of economic growth

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Carlos; Teles, Vladimir Kühl

2009-01-01

This manuscript empirically assesses the effects of political institutions on economic growth. It analyzes how political institutions affect economic growth in different stages of democratization and economic development by means of dynamic panel estimation with interaction terms. The new empirical results obtained show that political institutions work as a substitute for democracy promoting economic growth. In other words, political institutions are important for increasing economic growth, ...

Long memory in time series of economic growth and convergence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Silverberg, G.; Verspagen, B.

1999-01-01

One of the most hotly debated topics in macroeconomics in recent years has been the nature of fluctuations in the growth process of aggregate output in the longer term. Traditionally, economists have conceived of the growth process as consisting of a deterministic trend (such as exponential growth)

Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Zhang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB. The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.

Gender Equality and Economic Growth in Brazil

OpenAIRE

Pierre-Richard Agénor; Otaviano Canuto

2013-01-01

This note studies the long-run impacts of policies aimed at fostering gender equality on economic growth in Brazil. After a brief review of gender issues in Brazil, this note describes a framework for quantifying the growth effects of gender-based policies in developing economies. The analysis is based on a computable overlapping generations (OLG) model that accounts for the impact of acce...

Oil prices, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chien-Chiang; Chiu, Yi-Bin

2011-01-01

This paper applies panel data analysis to examine the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, oil consumption, and economic growth for developed countries covering the period 1971-2006. The panel cointegration results show that in the long run, oil prices have a positive impact on nuclear energy consumption, suggesting the existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil. The long-run elasticity of nuclear energy with respect to real income is approximately 0.89, and real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run. Furthermore, the panel causality results find evidence of unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run, while there is no causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short run. - Research highlights: → We examine the relationship among nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, oil consumption, and economic growth for developed countries. → The existence of the substitution relationship between nuclear energy and oil. → Real income has a greater impact on nuclear energy than do oil prices in the long run. → An unidirectional causality running from oil prices and economic growth to nuclear energy consumption in the long run.

Long-term effects of prenatal x-ray of human females. II. Growth and development.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, M B; Tonascia, J

1981-09-01

Experimental studies and studies of survivors of in-utero exposure to atomic bomb blasts have shown significant stunting of growth and mental retardation following these exposures. Central nervous system damage following very low doses of x-ray at around the time of birth has also been observed in experimental animals. This long term follow-up studies of 1458 human females exposed in utero to diagnostic x-rays and of 1458 matched unexposed controls studied in Baltimore, Maryland, included measurements of height, weight and school achievement. Women who had been exposed to x-rays in utero were significantly shorter in their mid-twenties than were their matched, unexposed controls, even after adjustment for other social and economic factors. However, additional follow-up revealed that mothers of exposed women were also shorter than the control mothers. Short stature appeared to be a selective factor for x-ray during pregnancy (mostly pelvimetry, 1947-1952). Mothers' and daughters' heights were similarly correctly among exposed and control mother-daughter pairs, suggesting that the height differences between exposed daughters and their controls were due to these selective factor rather than to any direct effect of radiation on growth. Exposed women reported poorer school achievement than control women. However, except for a higher proportion of exposed women leaving school because of pregnancy, these measurements were no longer significantly different when rates were simultaneously adjusted for socioeconomic differences between exposed and control women.

Influence of the Budgetary Decentralization on the Economic Growth of Regions of Ukraine: Statistical Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Voznyak Halyna V.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to define, determine and analyze the interrelationships between the budgetary decentralization and the economic growth of regions of Ukraine under conditions of reforming the power and financial resources. A statistical estimation of the influence of the budgetary decentralization on the economic growth of regions of Ukraine for 2015-2016 is carried out. The application of the panel data modeling allowed to build econometric models that made it possible to determine the ambiguous nature of the budgetary decentralization and identify key factors of its influence. It is shown that in terms of the income and expenditures the budgetary decentralization is positively associated with the economic growth of regions of Ukraine during the chosen time range of the study. The dynamic growth of the own revenues of local budgets is not a catalyst for the economic development of the regions. A strong negative effect of transfers on the dependent variable is confirmed. Among the variables included in the model and additionally characterizing the budgetary decentralization, the single tax and subsidies for the socio-economic development of individual territories attract attention. As a result of the study, the author justifies the need to minimize the transfer dependence of the regions at a simultaneous increasing of their own revenue base with local taxes and fees serving as a reliable basis for a long-term planning and development.

Global warming, energy use, and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Khanna, Neha

The dissertation comprises four papers that explore the interactions between global warming, energy use, and economic growth. While the papers are separate entities, they share the underlying theme of highlighting national differences in the growth experience and their implications for long-term energy use and climate change. The first paper provides an overview of some key economic issues in the climate change literature. In doing so, the paper critically appraises the 1995 draft report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The focus is the choice of a pure rate of time preference in the economic modeling of climate change, abatement costs differentials between developed and developing countries, and contrasting implications of standard discount rates and value of life estimates for these two country groups. The second paper develops a global model that takes account of the depletion of oil resources in the context of a geo-economic model for climate change. It is found that in the presence of non-decreasing carbon and energy intensities and declining petroleum availability, the carbon emissions trajectory is much higher than that typically projected by other models of this genre. Furthermore, by introducing price and income sensitive demand functions for fossil fuels, the model provides a framework to assess the effectiveness of fuel specific carbon taxes in reducing the COsb2 emissions trajectory. Cross-price substitution effects necessitate unrealistically high tax rates in order to lower the projected emissions trajectory to the optimal level. The economic structure of five integrated assessment models for climate change is reviewed in the third paper, with a special focus on the macroeconomic and damage assessment modules. The final paper undertakes an econometric estimation of the changing shares of capital, labour, energy, and technical change in explaining the growth patterns of 38 countries. Production elasticities vary by

The potential impact of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Waldeck, L

2012-10-01

Full Text Available of urban growth simulation on the long-term planning of our cities 4th Biennial Conference Presented by: Dr Louis Waldeck Date: 10 October 2012 Slide 2 of 17 Why Urban Growth Simulation? ? Reduced carbon footprint ? Reduce resource consumption... of the population concentrated in cities and the opportunities to gain efficiencies, cities are the most important arena for intervention.? Maurice Strong Unabated urbanisation Quest for sustainable development What makes a city sustainable? Slide 3 of 17...

Economic Growth, Economic Freedom, and Governance

OpenAIRE

Cebula, Richard; Ekstrom, Marcus

2008-01-01

This exploratory study examines the impact of various forms of economic freedom and various dimensions of governance, as well as a number of economic factors, on economic growth among OECD nations. Empirical estimation finds that the natural log of per capita purchasing-power-parity adjusted real GDP in OECD nations is positively impacted by business freedom, monetary freedom, trade freedom, and property rights security. Economic growth is found to be negatively affected by perceived governme...

Effects of long-term low atmospheric pressure on gas exchange and growth of lettuce

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yongkang; Guo, Shuangsheng; Dong, Wenping; Qin, Lifeng; Ai, Weidang; Lin, Shan

2010-09-01

The objectives of this research were to determine photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and growth of lettuce at long-term low atmospheric pressure. Lettuce ( Lactuca sativa L . cv. Youmaicai) plants were grown at 40 kPa total pressure (8.4 kPa p) or 101 kPa total pressure (20.9 kPa p) from seed to harvest for 35 days. Germination rate of lettuce seeds decreased by 7.6% at low pressure, although this was not significant. There was no significant difference in crop photosynthetic rate between hypobaria and ambient pressure during the 35-day study. The crop evapotranspiration rate was significantly lower at low pressure than that at ambient pressure from 20 to 30 days after planting (DAP), but it had no significant difference before 20 DAP or after 30 DAP. The growth cycle of lettuce plants at low pressure was delayed. At low pressure, lettuce leaves were curly at the seedling stage and this disappeared gradually as the plants grew. Ambient lettuce plants were yellow and had an epinastic growth at harvest. The shoot height, leaf number, leaf length and shoot/root ratio were lower at low pressure than those at ambient pressure, while leaf area and root growth increased. Total biomass of lettuce plants grown at two pressures had no significant difference. Ethylene production at low pressure decreased significantly by 38.8% compared with ambient pressure. There was no significant difference in microelements, nutritional phytochemicals and nitrate concentrations at the two treatments. This research shows that lettuce can be grown at long-term low pressure (40 kPa) without significant adverse effects on seed germination, gas exchange and plant growth. Furthermore, ethylene release was reduced in hypobaria.

Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fei, Li; Dong, Suocheng; Xue, Li; Yang, Quanxi [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China); Liang [Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632 (China); Wangzhou

2011-02-15

This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based dynamic OLS to re-investigate the co-movement and relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China from 1985 to 2007. The empirical results show that there is a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP per capita and energy consumption variables. Furthermore, we investigate two cross-regional groups, namely the east China and west China groups, and get more important results and implications. In the long-term, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita increases the consumption of energy by approximately 0.48-0.50% and accordingly increases the carbon dioxide emissions by about 0.41-0.43% in China. The economic growth in east China is energy-dependent to a great extent, and the income elasticity of energy consumption in east China is over 2 times that of the west China. At present, China is subject to tremendous pressures for mitigating climate change issues. It is possible that the GDP per capita elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions would be controlled in a range from 0.2 to 0.3 by the great effort. (author)

Global Integration, Non-Oil Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria

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Ozoemena Stanley Nwodo

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on global integration, non-oil export and economic growth in Nigeria. The direct and interaction effect of the both openness variables and non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria is investigated using quarterly data from 1986-2014. For analysis, it uses one measures of financial openness: de facto (total capital flow variables following Aizenman and Noy (2009.and a measure of trade openness adopted by Okoh (2004. The study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL. The results show positive impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria both in the short run and in the long run, negative effect of trade and financial openness on economic growth however, the result recorded a negative effect of the interaction of trade openness and non-oil export on economic growth and a positive effect of the interaction of financial openness and non-oil export on economic growth. Thus, the study recommends among others that government should get the fundamentals right in the economy first that will boost non-oil sector before opening the economy for trade.

Projecting long term medical spending growth.

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Borger, Christine; Rutherford, Thomas F; Won, Gregory Y

2008-01-01

We present a dynamic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy and the medical sector in which the adoption of new medical treatments is endogenous and the demand for medical services is conditional on the state of technology. We use this model to prepare 75-year medical spending forecasts and a projection of the Medicare actuarial balance, and we compare our results to those obtained from a method that has been used by government actuaries. Our baseline forecast predicts slower health spending growth in the long run and a lower Medicare actuarial deficit relative to the previous projection methodology.

Assessment of a novel alder biorefinery concept to meet demands of economic feasibility, energy production and long term environmental sustainability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Tobias; Ahrenfeldt, Jesper; Thomsen, Sune Tjalfe

2013-01-01

A biorefinery concept based on alder tree plantations on degenerated soil is developed to comply with indicators of economic feasibility, fossil fuel depletion concerns, and long term sustainability issues. The potential performance of feedstock and biorefinery has been assessed through a literat......A biorefinery concept based on alder tree plantations on degenerated soil is developed to comply with indicators of economic feasibility, fossil fuel depletion concerns, and long term sustainability issues. The potential performance of feedstock and biorefinery has been assessed through...... degenerated soils. Integrating a biomass handling system, an LTCFB gasifier, a diarylheptanoids production chain, an anaerobic digestion facility, a slow pyrolysis unit, gas upgrading and various system integration units, the biorefinery could obtain the following production characteristics accounted...

The electricity consumption and economic growth nexus: Evidence from Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polemis, Michael L.; Dagoumas, Athanasios S.

2013-01-01

This paper attempts to cast light into the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Greece in a multivariate framework. For this purpose we used cointegration techniques and the vector error correction model in order to capture short-run and long-run dynamics over the sample period 1970–2011. The empirical results reveal that in the long-run electricity demand appears to be price inelastic and income elastic, while in the short-run the relevant elasticities are below unity. We also argue that the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Greece is bi-directional. Our results strengthen the notion that Greece is an energy dependent country and well directed energy conservation policies could even boost economic growth. Furthermore, the implementation of renewable energy sources should provide significant benefits ensuring sufficient security of supply in the Greek energy system. This evidence can provide a new basis for discussion on the appropriate design and implementation of environmental and energy policies for Greece and other medium sized economies with similar characteristics. -- Highlights: •We examine the causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. •We used cointegration techniques to capture short-run and long-run dynamics. •The relationship between electricity consumption and GDP is bi-directional. •Residential energy switching in Greece is still limited. •The implementation of renewable energy sources should ensure security of supply

Carbon dioxide emission and economic growth of China-the role of international trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Boamah, Kofi Baah; Du, Jianguo; Bediako, Isaac Asare; Boamah, Angela Jacinta; Abdul-Rasheed, Alhassan Alolo; Owusu, Samuel Mensah

2017-05-01

This study investigates the role of international trade in mitigating carbon dioxide emission as a nation economically advances. This study disaggregated the international trade into total exports and total imports. A multivariate model framework was estimated for the time series data for the period of 1970-2014. The quantile regression detected all the essential relationship, which hitherto, the traditional ordinary least squares could not capture. A cointegration relationship was confirmed using the Johansen cointegration model. The findings of the Granger causality revealed the presence of a uni-directional Granger causality running from energy consumption to economic growth; from import to economic growth; from imports to exports; and from urbanisation to economic growth, exports and imports. Our study established the presence of long-run relationships amongst carbon dioxide emission, economic growth, energy consumption, imports, exports and urbanisation. A bootstrap method was further utilised to reassess the evidence of the Granger causality, of which the results affirmed the Granger causality in the long run. This study confirmed a long-run N-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon emission, under the estimated cubic environmental Kuznet curve framework, from the perspective of China. The recommendation therefore is that China as export leader should transform its trade growth mode by reducing the level of carbon dioxide emission and strengthening its international cooperation as it embraces more environmental protectionisms.

Growth Versus Government Management Improvement During Economic Downturn

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Podobnik, Boris; Baaquie, Belal E.; Bishop, Steven; Njavro, Djuro; Li, Baowen

2013-04-01

In estimating how economic growth depends on various inputs, economists commonly use long periods of data encompassing both main extremes to fluctuations in the economy: recession and expansion. Here we focus on recession years because during expansion even countries with bad economic policies may experience large growth. Specifically, we study how growth depends on the proportion of public-sector workforce, p and competitiveness, quantified by the Global Competitiveness Index, GCI. For the 2008-2011 economic downturn and for 57 countries, we find that the growth rate of GDP per capita, g, decreases with p, and increases with ΔGCI. Further, more competitive countries attract more foreign direct investments per capita, I, than less competitive countries, where I ~ GCIα. We propose a production function, divided into the private and public sectors, where GDP depends on market capitalization, the public (private)-sector workforce, and competitiveness level, used to quantify the public sector efficiency.

Monetary-Fiscal-Trade Policy and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Time Series Empirical Investigation

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Syed Tehseen Jawaid

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This study empirically examines the effect of monetary, fiscal and trade policy on economic growth in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1981 to 2009. Money supply, government expenditure and trade openness are used as proxies of monetary, fiscal and trade policy respectively. Cointegration and error correction model indicate the existence of positive significant long run and short run relationship of monetary and fiscal policy with economic growth. Result also indicates that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in Pakistan. In contrast, trade policy has insignificant effect on economic growth both in the short run and in the long run. In light of the findings, it is suggested that the policy makers should focus more on monetary policy in order to ensure economic growth in the country. It is also recommended that further research should be conducted to find out such components of exports and imports which lead to the ineffectiveness of trade policy to enhance economic growth in Pakistan.

Short-term and long-term effects of GDP on traffic deaths in 18 OECD countries, 1960-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Dadgar, Iman; Norström, Thor

2017-02-01

Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality. We extracted traffic death rates for the period 1960-2011 from the WHO Mortality Database for 18 OECD countries. Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates. The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (pGDP leads to an immediate increase in traffic deaths. However, after the mid-1970s this short-term effect is more than outweighed by a markedly stronger protective long-term effect, whereas the reverse is true for the period before the mid-1970s. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The Effects of Unemployment on Economic Growth in Greece. An ARDL Bound Test Approach.

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Nikolaos Dritsakis

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between unemployment rate, economic growth and inflation rate in Greece, using annual data covering the period 1995-2015. The unit root tests results indicated that the variables have different integration order. Subsequently, the bounds testing (ARDL approach and ECM-ARDL model are applied in order to examine the long-run and the causal relationship between the variables. The empirical results of the study revealed, both in the short and long-run, that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between unemployment and economic growth with direction from unemployment to economic growth, as well as a unidirectional causality running from inflation to economic growth.

Long-term growth rates and effects of bleaching in Acropora hyacinthus

Science.gov (United States)

Gold, Zachary; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2018-03-01

Understanding the response of coral growth to natural variation in the environment, as well as to acute temperature stress under current and future climate change conditions, is critical to predicting the future health of coral reef ecosystems. As such, ecological surveys are beginning to focus on corals that live in high thermal stress environments to understand how future coral populations may adapt to climate change. We investigated the relationship between coral growth, thermal microhabitat, symbionts type, and thermal acclimatization of four species of the Acropora hyacinthus complex in back-reef lagoons in American Samoa. Coral growth was measured from August 2010 to April 2016 using horizontal planar area of coral colonies derived from photographs and in situ maximum width measurements. Despite marked intraspecific variation, we found that planar colony growth rates were significantly different among cryptic species. The highly heat tolerant A. hyacinthus variant "HE" increased in area an average of 2.9% month-1 (0.03 cm average mean radial extension month-1). By contrast, the three less tolerant species averaged 6.1% (0.07 cm average mean radial extension month-1). Planar growth rates were 40% higher on average in corals harboring Clade C versus Clade D symbiont types, although marked inter-colony variation in growth rendered this difference nonsignificant. Planar growth rates for all four species dropped to near zero following a 2015 bleaching event, independent of the visually estimated percent area of bleaching. Within 1 yr, growth rates recovered to previous levels, confirming previous studies that found sublethal effects of thermal stress on coral growth. Long-term studies of individual coral colonies provide an important tool to measure impacts of environmental change and allow integration of coral physiology, genetics, symbionts, and microclimate on reef growth patterns.

Environmental support, energy security and economic growth in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gasparatos, Alexandros; Gadda, Tatiana

2009-01-01

This study investigates the resource consumption of Japanese society since 1979 and its subsequent effects on the economic output of the nation and the environment. In order to quantify resource appropriation and trends in production and consumption, the concept of emergy synthesis is employed. Our results show a significant increase in the total amount of emergy consumed by 66.9% between 1979 and 2003 which comes hand in hand with an increase in the level of environmental stress by 93.7% (quantified as the environmental loading ratio). On the other hand the emergy required to produce 1 USD of economic output has been gradually decreasing which denotes an increase in the efficiency of the conversion of natural capital into economic output. What is most interesting though is the growing dependence of the Japanese economy on imported emergy, increasingly from developing nations, that severely affects the potential for unhindered economic growth. This can prove to be a big barrier that could affect the resource security of the Japanese economy and render it susceptible to risks associated with access to natural resources which in turn can jeopardise its long-term economic sustainability.

Coal Consumption and Economic Growth: Panel Cointegration and Causality Evidence from OECD and Non-OECD Countries

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Taeyoung Jin

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for 30 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries and 32 non-OECD countries for 1990–2013 using a multivariate dependent panel analysis. For the analysis, we conducted the common factor defactorization process, unit root test, cointegration test, long-run cointegrating vector, and Granger causality test. Our results suggest the following: First, there is no long-run relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in OECD countries; however, in non-OECD countries, the relationship does exist. Second, excessive coal usage may hinder economic growth in the long run. Lastly, the growth hypothesis (coal consumption affects economic growth positively is supported in the short run for non-OECD countries. As coal consumption has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run and a negative effect in the long run, energy conservation policies may have adverse effects only in the short run. Thus, non-OECD countries should gradually switch their energy mix to become less coal-dependent as they consider climate change. Moreover, a transfer of technology and financial resources from developed to developing countries must be encouraged at a global level.

Exchange Rate Fluctuation and the Nigeria Economic Growth

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Lawal Adedoyin Isola

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria within the context of four profound theories: purchasing power parity; monetary model of exchange rates; the portfolio balance approach; and the optimal currency area theory. Data was collected from the CBN statistical bulletin in Nigeria from 2003– 2013and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL model was employed to estimate the model. In the model, real GDP (RGDP was used as the proxy for economic growth while Inflation rate (IF, Exchange rate (EXC, Interest rate (INT and Money Supply(M2 as proxies for other macroeconomic variables. The empirical results show that exchange rate fluctuation has no effect on economic growth in the long run though a short run relationship exist between the two. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that the Central bank for policy purposes should ensure that stern foreign exchange control policies are put in place in order to help in appropriate determination of the value of the exchange rate. This will in the long run help to strengthen the value of the Naira.

Reduced insulin-like growth factor-I serum levels in formerly obese women subjected to laparoscopic-adjustable gastric banding or diet-induced long-term caloric restriction.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitterberger, Maria C; Mattesich, Monika; Klaver, Elise; Piza-Katzer, Hildegunde; Zwerschke, Werner

2011-11-01

Life-span extension in laboratory rodents induced by long-term caloric restriction correlates with decreased serum insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) levels. Reduced activity of the growth hormone/IGF-I signaling system slows aging and increases longevity in mutant mouse models. In the present study, we show that long-term caloric restriction achieved by two different interventions for 4 years, either laparoscopic-adjustable gastric banding or reducing diet, leads to reduced IGF-I serum levels in formerly obese women relative to normal-weight women eating ad libitum. Moreover, we present evidence that the long-term caloric restriction interventions reduce fasting growth hormone serum levels. The present study indicates that the activity of the growth hormone/IGF-I axis is reduced in long-term calorically restricted formerly obese humans. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the duration and severity of the caloric restriction intervention are important for the outcome on the growth hormone/IGF-I axis in humans.

Long-term Strategic Planning for a Resilient Metro Colombo: An Economic Case for Wetland Conservation and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Rozenberg, J.

2015-12-01

Colombo faces recurrent floods that threaten its long-term economic development. Its urban wetlands have been identified by local agencies as a critical component of its flood reduction system, but they have declined rapidly in recent years due to continuous infilling, unmanaged land development and dredging to create lakes. In collaboration with government agencies, NGOs and local universities, the World Bank has carried out a Robust Decision Making analysis to examine the value of Colombo urban wetlands, both in the short-term and long-term, and identify what are the most viable strategies available to increase the city's flood resilience in an unclear future (in terms of climate change and patterns of urban development). This has involved the use of numerous hydrological and socio-economic scenarios as well as the evaluation of some wetlands benefits, like ecosystem services, wastewater treatment, or recreational services. The analysis has determined that if all urban wetlands across the Colombo catchment were lost, in some scenarios the metropolitan area would have to cope with an annual average flood loss of approximately 1% of Colombo GDP in the near future. For long-term strategies, trade-offs between urban development, lake creation and wetland conservation were analyzed and it was concluded that an active management of urban wetlands was the lowest regret option. Finally, the analysis also revealed that in the future, with climate change and fast urban development, wetlands will not be sufficient to protect Colombo against severe floods. Pro-active urban planning and land-use management are therefore necessary, both to protect existing wetlands and to reduce future exposure. The use of many different scenarios, the consideration of several policy options, and the open participatory process ensured policy-makers' buy-in and lead to the decision to actively protect urban wetlands in Colombo.

Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solarin, Sakiru Adebola; Shahbaz, Muhammad

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in the case of Angola, while utilizing the data over the period of 1971–2009. We have applied Lee and Strazicich (2003. The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 1082–1089; 2004. Working Paper. Department of Economics, Appalachian State University) unit root tests to examine the stationarity properties of the series. Using the Gregory–Hansen structural break cointegration procedure as a complement, we employ the ARDL bounds test to investigate long run relationships. The VECM Granger causality test is subsequently used to examine the direction of causality between economic growth, urbanisation, and electricity consumption. Our results indicate the existence of long run relationships. We further observe evidence in favour of bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. The feedback hypothesis is also found between urbanisation and economic growth. Urbanisation and electricity consumption Granger cause each other. We conclude that Angola is energy-dependent country. Consequently, the relevant authorities should boost electricity production as one of the means of achieving sustainable economic development in the long run. - Highlights: • We consider the link between electricity consumption and economic growth in Angola. • Urbanisation is added to turn the research into a trivariate investigation. • Various time series procedures are used. • Results show that increasing electricity will improve economic growth in Angola. • Results show urbanisations reduced economic growth during civil war

Is Tourism Development a Sustainable Economic Growth Strategy in the Long Run? Evidence from GCC Countries

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Abdulkarim K. Alhowaish

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC countries in a multivariate model, using panel data for the period 1995–2012. The study adopts a panel Granger causality analysis approach to assess the contribution of tourism to economic growth in GCC countries as a whole, and in each individual country. In the case of GCC countries as a whole, the results show a one-way Granger causality, from economic growth to tourism growth. Furthermore, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates follow the path of economy-driven tourism growth, as hypothesized. The reverse hypothesis (i.e., tourism-led growth hypothesis holds true for Bahrain, while there is no causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the case of Oman.

Financial Development, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Nexus in Cote d’Ivoire

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Diby Kassi

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between financial development, economic growth and energy consumption in Cote d’Ivoire over the period 1971-2011. To do so, the study first built a synthetic indicator of financial development through the principal component analysis technique (PCA and used four energy sources such as electric power consumption, electricity production from renewable sources, electricity production from oil sources and electricity production from hydroelectric sources. Then, employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, we find that there is a long run relationship between financial development, economic growth and energy consumption sources. Furthermore, the results of the vector error correction models (VECM reveal unidirectional causality running from financial development to energy consumption sources, bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption and unidirectional causality from financial development to economic growth in the long run. The mixed results are due to the use of different proxies for energy consumption. Accordingly, this paper recommends that policy makers should solicit the support of financial sector in order to solve energy problems and further the diversification of the energy consumption sources since financial development has a positive effect on energy consumption in long run. Moreover, government should develop public-private partnership (PPP to stimulate economic growth, improve the access to energy and maintain a sustainable development in Cote d’Ivoire.

Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eggoh, Jude C., E-mail: comlanvi-jude.eggoh@univ-orleans.fr [Laboratoire d' Economie d' Orleans (LEO), Universite d' Orleans, Rue de Blois, BP: 6739, 45067 Orleans Cedex 2 (France); Bangake, Chrysost [Laboratoire d' Economie d' Orleans (LEO), Universite d' Orleans, Rue de Blois, BP: 6739, 45067 Orleans Cedex 2 (France); Universite d' Artois and Laboratoire EQUIPPE, Lille 1, FSES, 59655 Villeneuve d' Ascq Cedex (France); Rault, Christophe [Laboratoire d' Economie d' Orleans (LEO), Universite d' Orleans, Rue de Blois, BP: 6739, 45067 Orleans Cedex 2 (France); Toulouse Business School (France)

2011-11-15

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 21 African countries over the period from 1970 to 2006, using recently developed panel cointegration and causality tests. The countries are divided into two groups: net energy importers and net energy exporters. It is found that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, real GDP, prices, labor and capital for each group of countries as well as for the whole set of countries. This result is robust to possible cross-country dependence and still holds when allowing for multiple endogenous structural breaks, which can differ among countries. Furthermore, we find that decreasing energy consumption decreases growth and vice versa, and that increasing energy consumption increases growth, and vice versa, and that this applies for both energy exporters and importers. Finally, there is a marked difference in the cointegration relationship when country groups are considered. - Highlights: > We assess the energy consumption and economic growth nexus in 21 African countries. > There exists a long-run relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. > This result is robust to cross-country dependence and for structural breaks. > Our findings finally support the feedback hypothesis of bidirectional causality.

A Reaction-Diffusion Model for Synapse Growth and Long-Term Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Kang; Lisman, John; Hagan, Michael

Memory storage involves strengthening of synaptic transmission known as long-term potentiation (LTP). The late phase of LTP is associated with structural processes that enlarge the synapse. Yet, synapses must be stable, despite continual subunit turnover, over the lifetime of an encoded memory. These considerations suggest that synapses are variable-size stable structure (VSSS), meaning they can switch between multiple metastable structures with different sizes. The mechanisms underlying VSSS are poorly understood. While experiments and theory have suggested that the interplay between diffusion and receptor-scaffold interactions can lead to a preferred stable size for synaptic domains, such a mechanism cannot explain how synapses adopt widely different sizes. Here we develop a minimal reaction-diffusion model of VSSS for synapse growth, incorporating the recent observation from super-resolution microscopy that neural activity can build compositional heterogeneities within synaptic domains. We find that introducing such heterogeneities can change the stable domain size in a controlled manner. We discuss a potential connection between this model and experimental data on synapse sizes, and how it provides a possible mechanism to structurally encode graded long-term memory. We acknowledge the support from NSF INSPIRE Award number IOS-1526941 (KL, MFH, JL) and the Brandeis Center for Bioinspired Soft Materials, an NSF MRSEC, DMR- 1420382 (MFH).

China and India: Openness, Trade and Effects on Economic Growth

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Marelli, Enrico

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to analyse the economic growth of China and India in terms of their integration in the global economy. We begin with a discussion of some stylized facts concerning their recent economic growth, the most significant institutional reforms, with particular reference to trade relations, and their impact on their economic development. We then propose a descriptive analysis of economic growth, opening up of the economies and trade specialisation, by comparing the features and trends of the two countries (by considering trade and foreign direct investment data. We have also estimated some econometric relations between economic growth and trade/openness, with the addition of control variables (such as the gross fixed capital formation. We initially used a panel data model for the two countries, to be estimated with fixed effects; to test for reverse causality, we re-estimated the fixed effects model by 2SLS (with the inclusion of specific instrumental variables. The effect on economic growth (in terms of GDP per capita of our variables of interest - Openness and FDI - remains positive and statistically significant in all specifications, which confirms our findings even if we treat these variables as endogenous variables. The results prove the positive growth effects, for the two countries, of opening up and integrating in the world economy. Note that the robust growth of these two "giants" has contained the initial impact of the recent global crisis and is now sustaining the recovery of the entire world economy. Other policy relevant implications are discussed in the concluding section.

TRENDS IN TAX DEVELOPMENT - EFFICIENCY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

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Tanya Todorova

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The discussion on the role of the state and the amount of public revenue to maintain a balance between economic stability and social justice lasts for decades. The need for active state participation in the economy and the use of public revenue as a fiscal instrument is tangible. Delayed economic growth rates on global, regional and national level are a challenge to budget stability. In this article, the object of research is taxation, the subject - the trends and challenges to its effectiveness. The aim is to clarify whether there is a clear strategy on the marginal and implicit tax rate on the income of the population by comparing Bulgaria and other newly admitted countries in the EU (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia and Romania. The main task is to justify the need to build a long-term strategy to increase the efficiency of labor taxation in order to achieve optimal distribution and redistribution of income.

Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth

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Stelian Brad

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Economic growth and sustainable development are important issues for social prosperity. Sustainable development strives for moderate and responsible use within the economic activity of the limited resources of our planet, whereas economic growth does not limit the resource exploitation and energy, being mainly focused on productivity increase. From this perspective, both conceptual and operational contradictions occur between the two pillars of prosperity. This paper looks to these contradictions and proposes some streams of intervention such as economic growth and environmental sustainability to operate in harmony. A structured framework for innovative problem solving is considered in this respect. Results of this research show that it is possible to induce smart measures in the economic system for directing businesses towards new paradigms where economic growth is possible without negative effects on environmental sustainability.

Growth kinetics and long-term stability of CdS nanoparticles in aqueous solution under ambient conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mullaugh, Katherine M.; Luther, George W.

2011-01-01

The ubiquity of naturally occurring nanoparticles in the aquatic environment is now widely accepted, but a better understanding of the conditions that promote their formation and persistence is needed. Using cadmium sulfide (CdS) as a model metal sulfide species, thiolate-capped CdS nanoparticles were prepared in the laboratory to evaluate how aquatic conditions influence metal sulfide nanoparticle growth and stability. This work examines CdS nanoparticle growth directly in aqueous solution at room temperature by utilizing the size-dependent spectroscopic properties of semiconductors detectable by UV/vis. CdS nanoparticle growth was governed by oriented attachment, a non-classical mechanism of crystallization in which small precursor nanoparticles coalesce to form larger nanoparticle products. Nanoparticle growth was slowed with increasing capping agent and decreasing ionic strength. In addition to examining the short-term (hours) growth of the nanoparticles, a long-term study was conducted in which cysteine-capped CdS nanoparticles were monitored over 3 weeks in solutions of various ionic strengths. The long-term study revealed an apparent shift from small nanoparticles to nanoparticles twice their original size, suggesting nanoparticle growth may continue through oriented attachment over longer time scales. High-ionic strength solutions resulted in salt-induced aggregation and eventual settling of nanoparticles within days, whereas low-ionic strength solutions were stable against settling over the course of the experiment. Sulfide recovery from cysteine-capped CdS nanoparticles as acid volatile sulfide was nearly quantitative after 2 weeks in fully oxygenated water, demonstrating significantly slowed oxidation of sulfide when complexed to Cd(II) within CdS nanoparticles. The nanoparticles were also shown to be resistant to oxidation by Fe(III) (hydr)oxide. This study illustrates that aggregation, rather than chemical oxidation, is likely more important to the

SOIL AGROCHEMICAL PROPERTIES IMPROVEMENT IN LONG TERM FIELD EXPERIMENT WITH FERTILIZERS

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Mihaela Lungu

2005-10-01

Full Text Available Soil fertility is studied in long-term field experiments. Researches are carried out in several agricultural research stations, out of which the following have been chosen for the present paper: Albic Luvisol* at Albota; Haplic Phaeozem at Fundulea; Chromic Luvisol at Şimnic; Calcic Chernozem at Secuieni; and Haplic Chernozem at Podu Iloaiei. Long term fertilization with nitrogen and phosphorus generally improved the soil agrochemical properties. The evolution of organic matter, nitrogen, mobile phosphorus and potassium, and mobile microelements contents were studied, using the standardized method used in the ICPA laboratories. The organic matter and total nitrogen contents didn’t change significantly under the nitrogen and phosphorus long-term fertilization influence. The mobile phosphorus contents have the tendency to grow very significantly with the growth of phosphorus fertilizers. At the same time, slight depletions of these contents are registered as the high nitrogen doses from fertilizers stimulate plant growth and, obviously, nutritive elements absorption. Mobile potassium contents changes very little, with insignificant differences. Significant depletions are registered only with high fertilizers doses, due to the stimulation of the nutritive elements absorption in plants. Microelements contents don’t change almost at all. They are within the normal content limits and no excess or deficiency was registered, in any of the studied stations. For the agricultural practice, economical studies are recommended, about how high fertilizing expenses are covered by the yield growth. Not the least, production quality study in different variants of mineral fertilization could prove interesting.

Global prospects for nuclear power development in the long term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semenov, Boris A.

1994-01-01

Population growth, economic development and improvement of quality of life will lead to significant increase of electricity consumption worldwide with more rapid growth in developing and newly industrialised countries. At the same time, concerns for environmental protection and security of supply will call for the development of alternatives to fossil fuels for electricity generation. Sustain ability will be a major driving factor for the choice of electricity generation options and strategies. Costs, and macro-economic and social impacts, will also influence future strategies in the electricity sector. Since renewable sources require significant development efforts to reach competitiveness, nuclear power is the most likely non-fossil source to be deployed on a large scale for base load electricity generation. Nuclear power is already a proven technology providing a significant share of electricity supply worldwide. In several countries, including the Republic of Korea, nuclear generated electricity is a major contributor to secure and competitive electricity supply. Technological progress aiming towards enhancing safety as well as technical and economic performance of nuclear power plants will enlarge the potential market share of nuclear generated electricity. The purpose of the paper is to give an overview of the prospects for nuclear power development in the world in the medium and long term. For the short term, up to 2005, projections of nuclear power installed capacities are rather straightforward to establish. The Agency publishes such projections every years, based upon a review of nuclear programmes in Member States. For the medium term, up to 2015, two illustrative cases have been developed by the IAEA reflecting contrasted, but not extreme, assumptions on the different parameters influencing nuclear power deployment worldwide. The paper gives estimations of the installed nuclear capacity, and of the share of nuclear power in total electricity and energy

Predicting Long-Term Growth in Students' Mathematics Achievement: The Unique Contributions of Motivation and Cognitive Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; vom Hofe, Rudolf

2013-01-01

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10;…

Economic growth, sectoral structure and unemployment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Groot, H.L.F.

1998-01-01

This thesis consists of three parts that deal with the relationship between the relative wealth of nations, economic growth, and the sectoral structure of economies. In the first part, the focus is on the relative stagnancy of Europe versus the USA in terms of productivity levels and unemployment.

Dampening effects of long-term experimental drought on growth and mortality rates of a Holm oak forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbeta, Adrià; Ogaya, Romà; Peñuelas, Josep

2013-10-01

Forests respond to increasing intensities and frequencies of drought by reducing growth and with higher tree mortality rates. Little is known, however, about the long-term consequences of generally drier conditions and more frequent extreme droughts. A Holm oak forest was exposed to experimental rainfall manipulation for 13 years to study the effect of increasing drought on growth and mortality of the dominant species Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia, and Arbutus unedo. The drought treatment reduced stem growth of A. unedo (-66.5%) and Q. ilex (-17.5%), whereas P. latifolia remained unaffected. Higher stem mortality rates were noticeable in Q. ilex (+42.3%), but not in the other two species. Stem growth was a function of the drought index of early spring in the three species. Stem mortality rates depended on the drought index of winter and spring for Q. ilex and in spring and summer for P. latifolia, but showed no relation to climate in A. unedo. Following a long and intense drought (2005-2006), stem growth of Q. ilex and P. latifolia increased, whereas it decreased in A. unedo. Q. ilex also enhanced its survival after this period. Furthermore, the effect of drought treatment on stem growth in Q. ilex and A. unedo was attenuated as the study progressed. These results highlight the different vulnerabilities of Mediterranean species to more frequent and intense droughts, which may lead to partial species substitution and changes in forest structure and thus in carbon uptake. The response to drought, however, changed over time. Decreased intra- and interspecific competition after extreme events with high mortality, together with probable morphological and physiological acclimation to drought during the study period, may, at least in the short term, buffer forests against drier conditions. The long-term effects of drought consequently deserve more attention, because the ecosystemic responses are unlikely to be stable over time.Nontechnical summaryIn this study, we

The Long-Run Relationship between Economic Growth and Tourism Revenue: The Case of Turkey and TRNC- Ekonomik Büyüme ile Turizm Geliri Arasındaki Uzun Dönemli İlişki: Türkiye ve KKTC Örneği

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet ÇINAR

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Tourism-led growth hypothesis has been researched by several domestic and international studies. However, there is no consensus on the results of these studies since different countries with different data and different approaches are used for each of them. In this study, the long-run relationship between tourism and economic growth for Turkey and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus have been researched by using annual data for tourism income and GDP between 1977 and 2013, and the role and strength of tourism sector in economic growth for both countries are investigated. ARDL bounds test are used for this study. According to the results, for Turkey, both short and long term relationships between tourism revenues and GDP are found, and there is also a unidirectional causality relationship from tourism revenues to GDP. The results also indicate that tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid, and the policies targeting development of tourism sector are efficient in both short and long term for Turkey. However, when the relationship between tourism revenues and GDP for TRNC is tested, co-integration relationship cannot be found between these two variables so, we can conclude that tourism-led growth hypothesis is not valid for TRNC.

Internal and External Determinants of Economic Growth: A closer look at Pakistan’s Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Jamil

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the impact of internal and external determinants of economic growth on the economic growth of Pakistan. Major internal determinants include stock of physical capital and developmental expenditures, while external determinants include trade openness and real effective exchange rate. In doing so, study utilizes the annual time series data from 1972 to 2011. Advanced Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL approach has been employed for co-integration and error correction model (ECM for short-run results. Empirical investigations indicate that developmental expenditures, physical capital and trade openness are positively correlated with economic growth in long run, while real effective exchange rate negatively and significantly affect economic growth in long run in case of Pakistan.

Energy consumption and economic growth. Assessing the evidence from Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hondroyiannis, George; Lolos, Sarantis; Papapetrou, Evangelia

2002-01-01

This paper attempts to shed light into the empirical relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, for Greece (1960-1996) employing the vector error-correction model estimation. The vector specification includes energy consumption, real GDP and price developments, the latter taken to represent a measure of economic efficiency. The empirical evidence suggests that there is a long-run relationship between the three variables, supporting the endogeneity of energy consumption and real output. These findings have important policy implications, since the adoption of suitable structural policies aiming at improving economic efficiency can induce energy conservation without impeding economic growth

Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahadevan, Renuka; Asafu-Adjaye, John

2007-01-01

This paper reinvestigates the energy consumption-GDP growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002. Among the energy exporters, there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run, while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run. The former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category. In addition, compared to the developing countries, the developed countries' elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary. Lastly, the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed

Energy rebound and economic growth: A review of the main issues and research needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madlener, R.; Alcott, B.

2009-01-01

Contrary to conventional wisdom, more efficient use of energy may actually through rebound effects lead to greater instead of less total consumption of energy-or at least to no diminution of energy consumption. If so, energy efficiency strategies may serve goals of raising economic growth and affluence, but as an environmental or energy policy strategy could backfire, leading to more resource use in absolute terms rather than less. This, in turn, could in the long run hamper economic growth, for instance if resource scarcity crowds out technical change. The hypothesis that rebound is greater than unity ('backfire') predicts the observed real-world correlation between rising energy consumption and rising efficiency of energy services, however difficult it may be to define a precise holistic metric for the latter. The opposing hypothesis, i.e. that rebound is less than unity and that energy efficiency increases therefore result in less energy consumption than before, requires on the other hand strong forces that do account for the empirically observed economic growth. This paper summarises some of the discussions around the rebound effect, puts it into perspective to economic growth, and provides some insights at the end that can guide future empirical research on the rebound topic

Re-investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Arouri, Mohamed

2013-01-01

In the previous decades, a number of studies have been conducted to analyse the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the Portuguese economy. However, the evidence remains controversial because the previous studies do not provide clear causality evidence. This might be attributed to the omitted variables bias because most previous studies only focus on the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a bi-variate model. This paper attempts to re-investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Portugal using a multivariate model. Based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the Granger causality test within the vector error-correction model (VECM), our empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration among the variables. Moreover, there is evidence of bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in the short- and long-run. This suggests that energy is an important source of economic growth in Portugal. Therefore, energy conservation policies should not be implemented because it would deteriorate the process of economic growth and development of the Portuguese economy. - Highlights: • Electricity consumption and economic growth series in Portugal are cointegrated. • There is evidence of feedback effects between the two variables. • Energy is an important source of economic growth in Portugal

Bounds test approach to cointegration and causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wolde-Rufael, Yemane

2010-01-01

This paper attempts to examine the dynamic relationship between economic growth, nuclear energy consumption, labor and capital for India for the period 1969-2006. Applying the bounds test approach to cointegration developed by we find that there was a short- and a long-run relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. Using four long-run estimators we also found that nuclear energy consumption has a positive and a statistically significant impact on India's economic growth. Further, applying the approach to Granger causality and the variance decomposition approach developed by , we found a positive and a significant uni-directional causality running from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth without feedback. This implies that economic growth in India is dependent on nuclear energy consumption where a decrease in nuclear energy consumption may lead to a decrease in real income. For a fast growing energy-dependent economy this may have far-reaching implications for economic growth. India's economic growth can be frustrated if energy conservation measures are undertaken without due regard to the negative impact they have on economic growth.

Long-Term Coffee Monoculture Alters Soil Chemical Properties and Microbial Communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Qingyun; Xiong, Wu; Xing, Yizhang; Sun, Yan; Lin, Xingjun; Dong, Yunping

2018-04-17

Long-term monoculture severely inhibits coffee plant growth, decreases its yield and results in serious economic losses in China. Here, we selected four replanted coffee fields with 4, 18, 26 and 57 years of monoculture history in Hainan China to investigate the influence of continuous cropping on soil chemical properties and microbial communities. Results showed long-term monoculture decreased soil pH and organic matter content and increased soil EC. Soil bacterial and fungal richness decreased with continuous coffee cropping. Principal coordinate analysis suggested monoculture time was a major determinant of bacterial and fungal community structures. Relative abundances of bacterial Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Nitrospira and fungal Ascomycota phyla decreased over time. At genus level, potentially beneficial microbes such as Nitrospira and Trichoderma, significantly declined over time and showed positive relationships with coffee plant growth in pots. In conclusion, continuous coffee cropping decreased soil pH, organic matter content, potentially beneficial microbes and increased soil EC, which might lead to the poor growth of coffee plants in pots and decline of coffee yields in fields. Thus, developing sustainable agriculture to improve soil pH, organic matter content, microbial activity and reduce the salt stress under continuous cropping system is important for coffee production in China.

Public revenue, fiscal deficit and economic growth: Evidence from Asian countries

OpenAIRE

AMGAIN, Jeeban; DHAKAL, Nanda Kumar

2017-01-01

Abstract. This paper examines the impact of public revenue and fiscal deficit on economic growth in 20 Asian Countries. We use panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) to estimate both the short-run and long-run impact of the fiscal variables. The results indicate that fiscal deficit adversely affect growth both in short-run and long-run. In the long-run, deficit finance leads to debt accumulation which is also negatively associated with growth. However, panel ARDL results show that ...

CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pao, H.-T.; Tsai, C.-M.

2010-01-01

This paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption and output for a panel of BRIC countries over the period 1971-2005, except for Russia (1990-2005). In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions, while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with the threshold income of 5.393 (in logarithms). In the short term, changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks, as opposed to short term output shocks for each country. Short-term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0.770 years (Russia) to 5.848 years (Brazil) to correct. The panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption-emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption-output bidirectional long-run causality, along with unidirectional both strong and short-run causalities from emissions and energy consumption, respectively, to output. Overall, in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth, increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency, and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy-dependent BRIC countries. - Research highlights: →Energy has a positive impact on emissions, while output supports EKC hypothesis. →Changes in emissions are driven mostly by the ECT and short term energy shocks. →Short-term deviations from the long-term equilibrium take 0.77-5.85 years to correct. →There are energy-emissions and energy-output bidirectional long-run causalities. →There are unidirectional strong causalities from emissions and energy to output.

Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

2005-01-01

This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

The long-term outlook for nuclear capacity in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Archinoff, G.H.

1979-04-01

This report derives three estimates of long-term nuclear growth in Ontario for use in strategy studies of alternate nuclear fuel cycles. The low and high estimates encompass the full range of possible long-term nuclear growth rates. The middle, or base growth, estimate represents the nuclear growth pattern which seems at the present time most likely to occur. For the base growth estimate, nuclear capacity in Ontario reaches 31 GWe in 2000, grows to 175 GWe by 2060, and then remains constant. For the high growth estimate, the capacity in 2000 is 33 GWe, and climbs continuously to 833 GWe by the year 2100. (auth)

Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

1997-01-01

A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

The Long Term Impact of Budget Deficits on Economic Growth In ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

There were significant positive long-run relationships between the capital stock, ... however, be to use the budget to create the necessary public investments in capital ... linkages with agriculture and industry to generate good future returns.

CO{sub 2} emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pao, Hsiao-Tien; Tsai, Chung-Ming [Department of Management Science, National Chiao Tung University (China)

2010-12-15

This paper examines dynamic causal relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption and output for a panel of BRIC countries over the period 1971-2005, except for Russia (1990-2005). In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions, while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis with the threshold income of 5.393 (in logarithms). In the short term, changes in emissions are driven mostly by the error correction term and short term energy consumption shocks, as opposed to short term output shocks for each country. Short-term deviations from the long term equilibrium take from 0.770 years (Russia) to 5.848 years (Brazil) to correct. The panel causality results indicate there are energy consumption-emissions bidirectional strong causality and energy consumption-output bidirectional long-run causality, along with unidirectional both strong and short-run causalities from emissions and energy consumption, respectively, to output. Overall, in order to reduce emissions and not to adversely affect economic growth, increasing both energy supply investment and energy efficiency, and stepping up energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy can be initiated for energy-dependent BRIC countries. (author)

On the relationship between health, education and economic growth: Time series evidence from Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Habib Nawaz; Razali, Radzuan B.; Shafei, Afza Bt.

2016-11-01

The objectives of this paper is two-fold: First, to empirically investigate the effects of an enlarged number of healthy and well-educated people on economic growth in Malaysia within the Endogeneous Growth Model framework. Second, to examine the causal links between education, health and economic growth using annual time series data from 1981 to 2014 for Malaysia. Data series were checked for the time series properties by using ADF and KPSS tests. Long run co-integration relationship was investigated with the help of vector autoregressive (VAR) method. For short and long run dynamic relationship investigation vector error correction model (VECM) was applied. Causality analysis was performed through Engle-Granger technique. The study results showed long run co-integration relation and positively significant effects of education and health on economic growth in Malaysia. The reported results also confirmed a feedback hypothesis between the variables in the case of Malaysia. The study results have policy relevance of the importance of human capital (health and education) to the growth process of the Malaysia. Thus, it is suggested that policy makers focus on education and health sectors for sustainable economic growth in Malaysia.

Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Bin

2018-04-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p impact on the crop growth trend.

Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Liu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

The Effect of Government Debt and Other Determinants on Economic Growth: The Greek Experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Panagiotis Pegkas

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the relationship between economic growth and several factors (investment, private and government consumption, trade openness, population growth and government debt in Greece, where imbalances persist several years after the financial crisis. The results reveal a long-run relationship between variables. Investment as private and government consumption and trade openness affect positively growth. On the other hand, there is a negative long-run effect of government debt and population growth on growth. Furthermore, the study addresses the issue of break effects between government debt and economic growth. The results indicate that the relationship between debt and growth depends on the debt breaks. Specifically, at debt levels before 2000, increases in the government debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with insignificant effects on economic growth. However, as government debt rises after 2000, the effect on economic growth diminishes rapidly and the growth impacts become negative. The challenge for policy makers in Greece is to halt the rising of government debt by keeping a sustainable growth path. Fiscal discipline should be combined with the implementation of coherent, consistent and sequential growth-enhancing structural reforms.

Long-term Effects of Acute Malnutrition on Growth and Body Composition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lelijveld, Natasha; Kerac, Marko; Seal, Andrew; Wells, Jonathan; Nyirenda, Moffat

2014-01-01

Full text: Acute malnutrition (AM) is an important cause of child mortality worldwide and is therefore the main focus of current treatment programmes. However, given emerging evidence of early nutritional exposures affecting long term adult health, it is vital that future AM treatment strategies also start looking beyond the short term alone and consider opportunities to improve long-term outcomes in survivors. To do this, an improved evidence base on the long term implications of AM is vital. Our aim in this study was thus to explore growth, body composition and early markers of chronic disease 7 years after an episode of malnutrition. Methods: We present preliminary data from a study following up 463 ex-malnourished children and comparing them to both siblings and community controls. These are the known survivors of an original cohort of 1024 children admitted to Nutrition ward, Blantyre, Malawi from July 2006 - March 2007 for treatment of SAM. Current round of follow-up is 7 years after the original episode of malnutrition. We present preliminary analysis of study progress to date. Paired t-tests were used to analyse anthropometric data entered so far. Results: Our cohort of 463 AM survivors now have a median age of 8 yrs 7 months. 138/455 (30.3%) are HIV positive. So far, 91/107 (85%) of searches have been successful. Preliminary analysis of 90 case children shows ongoing mortality: 9/90(10%) have died in the last six years. Seven of these deaths were HIV positive and two died of a further episode of malnutrition at least two years after their first admission for SAM. Analysis of available anthropometric data shows that the ex-AM children are significantly more stunted than their community controls: HAZ -2.13(95% CI -2.48 to -1.78) vs -1.56(95% CI -2.04 to -1.07) p = 0.01). Their BMI and WAZ are similar to those of both sets of controls. Waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and sitting height ratio are also similar to controls. Numbers per group so far are

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Energy, economic growth, and human welfare

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schurr, S.H.

1984-01-01

The subject is covered in sections, entitled: economic growth and human welfare; world-wide economic growth; economic growth and energy consumption; assessing the future; caution advised; energy supply and economic growth; supply as constraint; sound policies needed. (U.K.)

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TAXATION IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina BOROVINA (COJOCARU

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In the context of the economic crisis that started in the United States in 2007, economic growth has become of great importance for the countries affected by the crisis further to their confrontation with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. At national level, governments are searching for that mix of optimal economic policies that would revive economies on the upward and also sustainable trend. One of the key policies in this regard, especially for the countries in Central and Eastern Europe which intend to adopt the euro currency, is the tax policy. Its main instruments are taxes. In this paper, we pay special attention to these instruments and to the connection that they have with the economic growth. This paper is divided into three parts. The first part presents a few ideas related to the importance of taxes at national level, the second part is an analysis in terms of taxation of the Central and Eastern Europe countries, while the third part consists of a panel-type assessment of the relation between economic growth and taxation level.

China’s Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow

OpenAIRE

Carsten A. Holz

2005-01-01

Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades. Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms between 2012 and 2015; by 2025, China is likely to be the world's largest econ...

FDI- Economic Growth Nexus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bujac, Andreea Ioana; Corado Cretu, Emanuel

2017-01-01

Conducting a systematic literature review on the topic of FDI and Economic Growth and investigating this relationship, along with the determinants of an economy that attract FDI and the externalities resulting from Foreign activities, it is found that FDI does have a positive effect on a host...... country’s economic growth but only with the preexistence of certain determinants which facilitate the absorption capacity of the host country on reaping the spillover effects (externalities) of FDI. Lastly, a framework was built to illustrate the interaction between FDI, Determinants and condition...... of the host economy, barriers to growth, economic growth and externalities....

Three essays on energy and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Peach, Nathanael David

2011-12-01

This dissertation explores the relationship between energy and economic growth. Chapter Two, Three, and Four examine the interaction of energy-related measures and economic outcomes by applying different methodologies across various spatial dimensions. Chapter Two shows that increases in energy consumption are necessary for increases in state level economic growth to occur. Chapter Three estimates a simultaneous supply and demand energy market at the state level. This system allows for estimates of structural elasticities to be obtained. Findings indicate that energy supply is considerably more elastic than energy demand. Energy demand is found to be determined by responses to short run shocks rather than long run processes. Chapter Four estimates the impact of changes in various elements of governance and institutional quality impact genuine investment within an economy. Increases in democracy are predicted to decrease genuine investment in energy-rich nations. The dissertation concludes with Chapter Five.

Effects of oil production on economic growth in Eurasian countries: Panel ARDL approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bildirici, Melike Elif; Kayıkçı, Fazıl

2013-01-01

This study aims at analyzing the relationship between oil production and economic growth in major oil exporting Eurasian countries; Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation and Turkmenistan for 1993–2010 periods. Empirical results reveal that oil production and economic growth are cointegrated for these countries. Furthermore, there is positive bi-directional causality between oil production and economic growth both in the long run and in the short run which supports the policies about investing in energy infrastructure. -- Highlights: ► Causality between economic growth and oil production is important for energy policies. ► Oil production and GDP are cointegrated for four oil exporting Eurasian countries. ► There is positive bi-directional causality between oil production and economic growth for these countries.

Energy conservation and sustainable economic growth: The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Ching-Chih; Soruco Carballo, Claudia Fabiola

2011-01-01

This study examines the causal relationships among energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in twenty countries from Latin America and the Caribbean region. The methodology includes the use of Phillips and Perron (PP) tests, a cointegration model with vector error correction modeling (VECM) and vector autoregression (VAR) with Granger causality. The study concludes that of the twenty countries analyzed, only in four of them will it be possible to implement energy conservation polices without affecting their economic growth, four others are not able to consider an energy conservation policy with economic growth, and the other twelve should focus on their economic growth before adopting any conservation policies. Energy efficiency was found in this region, especially in the countries which have both cointegration and short-term equilibrium. - Highlights: → Only four countries could implement energy conservation polices without affecting economic growth. → Twelve nations should focus on their economic growth before designing any energy conservation policies. → Energy efficiency was found in the countries which have both cointegration and short-term equilibrium.

ECONOMIC gROWTH, GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE

OpenAIRE

Nuno Carlos LEITÃO

2012-01-01

The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between economic growth, globalization and trade. The manuscript uses the assumptions of the economic growth exogenous and endogenous models. It introduces new proxies for explain the economic growth as in intra-industry trade, foreign direct investment and globalization index. The results indicate that economic growth is a dynamic process. The intra-industry has a positive impact on economic growth. This paper confirms relevan...

Modeled effects of soil acidification on long-term ecological and economic outcomes for managed forests in the Adirondack region (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Caputo, Jesse PhD.; Beier, Colin M.; Sullivan, Timothy J.; Lawrence, Gregory B.

2016-01-01

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is among the most ecologically and economically important tree species in North America, and its growth and regeneration is often the focus of silvicultural practices in northern hardwood forests. A key stressor for sugar maple (SM) is acid rain, which depletes base cations from poorly-buffered forest soils and has been associated with much lower SM vigor, growth, and recruitment. However, the potential interactions between forest management and soil acidification – and their implications for the sustainability of SM and its economic and cultural benefits – have not been investigated. In this study, we simulated the development of 50 extant SM stands in the western Adirondack region of NY (USA) for 100 years under different soil chemical conditions and silvicultural prescriptions. We found that interactions between management prescription and soil base saturation will strongly shape the ability to maintain SM in managed forests. Below 12% base saturation, SM did not regenerate sufficiently after harvest and was replaced mainly by red maple (Acer rubrum) and American beech (Fagus grandifolia). Loss of SM on acid-impaired sites was predicted regardless of whether the shelterwood or diameter-limit prescriptions were used. On soils with sufficient base saturation, models predicted that SM will regenerate after harvest and be sustained for future rotations. We then estimated how these different post-harvest outcomes, mediated by acid impairment of forest soils, would affect the potential monetary value of ecosystem services provided by SM forests. Model simulations indicated that a management strategy focused on syrup production – although not feasible across the vast areas where acid impairment has occurred – may generate the greatest economic return. Although pollution from acid rain is declining, its long-term legacy in forest soils will shape future options for sustainable forestry and ecosystem stewardship in the northern

Natural resources endowment and economic growth: The West African Experience

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Mohamed Jalloh

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This study aims at investigating the nexus between natural resource endowment and economic growth using a sample of West African countries. The study adopted a Barrow-type growth model to analyse the impact of natural resource wealth on economic growth. A dynamic panel estimation technique was employed using relevant data from West African Countries. The results from the panel regressions indicate that natural resource endowments have very minimal impact in terms of promoting economic growth in West Africa, more so in resource rich countries. In terms of relative effects, the results indicate that a 10% increase in natural resource export reduces growth in income per capita by approximately 0.4%. Part of the factors explaining this finding amongst others; include high corruption in the public sector as well as the frequency of civil conflicts in resource rich economies of West Africa. For the natural resources of the region to fully benefit its citizens, these countries require , urgently, to improve management of natural resource export revenues and to apply effective policy measures to eradicate/ mitigate incidences of rampant corruption in the public sector.

Transforming Growth Factor ß Recruits Persistent MAPK Signaling to Regulate Long-Term Memory Consolidation in "Aplysia Californica"

Science.gov (United States)

Shobe, Justin; Philips, Gary T.; Carew, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

In this study, we explore the mechanistic relationship between growth factor signaling and kinase activity that supports the protein synthesis-dependent phase of long-term memory (LTM) consolidation for sensitization of "Aplysia." Specifically, we examine LTM for tail shock-induced sensitization of the tail-elicited siphon withdrawal…

FDI, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption & Environmental Nexus in Bangladesh

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Sandip SARKER

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate the relationship among economic growth, energy consumption, CO2 emission, FDI and natural gas usage in Bangladesh through co-integration and Vector Error Correction model (VECM over the period 1978 to 2010. Using ADP unit root tests it is found that all the four variables are integrated in first difference. The Johansen co-integration tests indicate that there is existence of long-run relationship among the variables. The VECM long run causality model indicates that there is a long run causality running from energy consumption and natural gas usage by industrial sector to GDP as well as from CO2 emission to FDI. Likewise in the short run a causal relationships have also been found among the variables. Moreover our model is found be error free based on several statistical test. Our results provide important policy suggestions regarding our foreign direct investment, environmental issues and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh.

The Effects of the Structural Funds on the Romanian Economic Growth

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Ionica Oncioiu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The European funds are considered an attractive tool for supporting economic growth on short-term and at a macroeconomic level. The impact assessment of structural and cohesion funds on Romania's economic growth is sluggish because of the mismatches between official information at national and regional levels. The role of economic models in quantifying the impact of structural and cohesion funds at a macroeconomic level cannot be minimized. This paper aims to investigate the impact of European funds totally absorbed by Romania on the evolution of total GDP (Gross Domestic Product in the period 2007-2015. Using linear regression in R (lm function, our goal is to explain the relationship between attracted European funds in total, as an independent variable, and the Gross Domestic Product which was considered a dependent variable. For data processing, the authors used the ANOVA software. However, the results shows that the impact of the absorption rate on short-term economic growth does not confirm the theoretical expectations.

An Attempt to Assess the Quantitative Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth and Economic Development

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Próchniak Mariusz

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This study aims at assessing to what extent institutional environment is responsible for worldwide differences in economic growth and economic development. To answer this question, we use an innovative approach based on a new concept of the institutions-augmented Solow model which is then estimated empirically using regression equations. The analysis covers 180 countries during the 1993-2012 period. The empirical analysis confirms a large positive impact of the quality of institutional environment on the level of economic development. The positive link has been evidenced for all five institutional indicators: two indices of economic freedom (Heritage Foundation and Fraser Institute, the governance indicator (World Bank, the democracy index (Freedom House, and the EBRD transition indicator for post-socialist countries. Differences in physical capital, human capital, and institutional environment explain about 70-75% of the worldwide differences in economic development. The institutions-augmented Solow model, however, performs slightly poorer in explaining differences in the rates of economic growth: only one institutional variable (index of economic freedom has a statistically significant impact on economic growth. In terms of originality, this paper extends the theoretical analysis of the Solow model by including institutions, on the one hand, and shows a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of various institutional indicators on both the level of development and the pace of economic growth, on the other. The results bring important policy implications.

Rapid Economic Growth and Natural Gas Consumption Nexus: Looking forward from Perspective of 11th Malaysian Plan

Science.gov (United States)

Bekhet, H. A.; Yasmin, T.

2016-03-01

The present study investigates the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption by incorporating CO2 emissions, natural gas consumption and population in Malaysia. Annual data and F-bound test and granger causality have applied to test the existence of long run relationship between the series. The results show that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. The results also indicate that natural gas consumption is an important contributing factor to energy demand and hence economic growth in case of Malaysia. The causality analysis highlights that the feedback hypothesis exists between economic growth and energy consumption. While, conservative hypothesis is validated between natural gas consumption and economic growth which implies that economic growth will push natural gas consumption policies in future. This study opens up new direction for policy makers to formulate a comprehensive natural gas policy to sustain environment for long span of time in case to achieve 11th MP targets.

Influence Of Budget Deficit On Economic Growth: The Case Of The Republic Of Macedonia

OpenAIRE

Nikoloski, Aleksandar; Nedanovski, Pece

2017-01-01

Having a balanced budget is very important for achieving long-term and stable economic growth in everyone country.Namely, the budget itself is a very powerful and useful tool and instrument for defining and realizing development policies in acountry. The usefulness and the efficiency of this instrument largely depend on whether it is balanced or in deficit. Structural budgetdeficit cannot be analyzed if abstracted and separated because it influences large number of macroeconomic trends, but i...

Long- and Short-Term Cryptocurrency Volatility Components: A GARCH-MIDAS Analysis

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Christian Conrad

2018-05-01

Full Text Available We use the GARCH-MIDAS model to extract the long- and short-term volatility components of cryptocurrencies. As potential drivers of Bitcoin volatility, we consider measures of volatility and risk in the US stock market as well as a measure of global economic activity. We find that S&P 500 realized volatility has a negative and highly significant effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. The finding is atypical for volatility co-movements across financial markets. Moreover, we find that the S&P 500 volatility risk premium has a significantly positive effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. Finally, we find a strong positive association between the Baltic dry index and long-term Bitcoin volatility. This result shows that Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to global economic activity. Overall, our findings can be used to construct improved forecasts of long-term Bitcoin volatility.

Economic comparison of long-term nuclear fuel cycle management scenarios: The influence of the discount rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Dars, Aude; Loaec, Christine

2007-01-01

This article presents some main economic results obtained by the CEA in the DERECO project, which aimed to evaluate the global cost of contrasted and long-term nuclear fuel cycle scenarios. The scenarios have been studied for the period 2000-2150 in the French context. They all assume a sustainable nuclear development. These scenarios must not be considered as forecasts and do not reflect any industrial strategy. The article focuses on the comparison of five scenarios including the Generation IV fast reactors and their associated fuel cycles. Common trends as well as specific features can be identified. The article describes the scenarios with the replacement of the nuclear power and the associated fuel cycle. It details the main technical and economic assumptions common to all the scenarios, and exposes some main key results, concerning the flows and inventories as well as concerning economic evaluation. Economic results are given in a comparative manner due to the level of uncertainties at this time horizon. The key economic elements described in the article deal with the sensitivity of the results to the choice of the discount rate

GLOBALLY INCREASED CROP GROWTH AND CROPPING INTENSITY FROM THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE-BASED OBSERVATIONS

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B. Chen

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001, and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

Impact of foreign direct investment volatility on economic growth of asean-5 countries

OpenAIRE

Chee-keong Choong; Venus khim-sen Liew

2009-01-01

This study examines the impact of volatility of FDI, rather than its level on the economic growth of ASEAN-5 countries. Using bounds testing approach, we show that FDI volatility retards long-run economic growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Our results suggest that the economic growth of Indonesia is the most susceptible to the adverse effect of FDI volatility. These findings, which are robust to different measures of FDI volatility, are of concern in dealing with the...

Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

2017-06-01

Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Factors Associated with Long-Term Sickness Absence Due to Mental Disorders: A Cohort Study of 7.112 Patients during the Spanish Economic Crisis.

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Eva Real

Full Text Available Mental health problems are very common and often lead to prolonged sickness absence, having serious economic repercussions for most European countries. Periods of economic crisis are important social phenomena that are assumed to increase sickness absence due to mental disorders, although research on this topic remains scarce. The aim of this study was to gather data on long-term sickness absence (and relapse due to mental disorders in Spain during a period of considerable socio-economic crisis.Relationships were analyzed (using chi-squared tests and multivariate modelling via binary logistic regression between clinical, social/employment-related and demographic factors associated and long-term sickness absence (>60 consecutive days due to mental disorders in a cohort of 7112 Spanish patients during the period 2008-2012.Older age, severe mental disorders, being self-employed, having a non-permanent contract, and working in the real estate and construction sector were associated with an increased probability of long-term sickness absence (gender had a mediating role with respect to some of these variables. Relapses were associated with short-term sick leave (return to work due to 'improvement' and with working in the transport sector and public administration.Aside from medical factors, other social/employment-related and demographic factors have a significant influence on the duration of sickness absence due to mental disorders.

The Non-Linear Effect of Corporate Taxes on Economic Growth

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Huňady Ján

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the problem of taxation and its potential impact on economic growth and presents some new empirical insights into this topic. The main aim of the paper is to verify an assumed nonlinear impact of corporate tax rates on economic growth. Based on the theory of public finance and taxation, we hypothesize that at relatively low tax rates it is possible that the impact of taxation on economic growth become slightly positive. On the other hand when the tax rates are higher a negative impact of taxation on economic growth could be expected. Despite the fact that the most of the existing studies find a negative linear relationship between these variables, we can also find strong support for a non-linear relationship from several theoretical models as well as some empirical studies. Based on panel data fixed-effects econometric models, we, as well, find empirical evidence for a non-linear relationship between nominal and effective corporate tax rates and economic growth. Our data consists of annual observations for the period 1999 to 2011 for EU Member States. Based on the results, we also estimated the optimal level of the corporate tax rate in terms of maximizing economic growth in the average of the EU countries.

GREEN INVESTMENT: A STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INVESTMENT

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Jaya Shukla

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Sustainable economic development has become an important area of concern due to climatic change with its long term effects. Climatic change has posed several challenges for economic sustainability of economies. Now major development projects have to comply with international environmental norms. Failure to do so may result in the delay of a project, fines including penalties for environmental damage or charges for remedial action, that affect the viability of a project or the value of any security taken. This paper investigates with help of secondary date using descriptive statistical technique opportunities and challenges of green investment. Here it is developed into suitable model for developing economies for successfully adopting green investment without much cost to their economies. The paper concludes that green investment involving direct investment and portfolio investment in firms adopting and following environmental protection norms will lead to sustainable growth and investment for economy.

Grain Growth and Precipitation Behavior of Iridium Alloy DOP-26 During Long Term Aging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pierce, Dean T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Muralidharan, Govindarajan [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fox, Ethan E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cox, Victoria A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Geer, Tom [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2017-05-01

The influence of long term aging on grain growth and precipitate sizes and spatial distribution in iridium alloy DOP-26 was studied. Samples of DOP-26 were fabricated using the new process, recrystallized for 1 hour (h) at 1375 C, then aged at either 1300, 1400, or 1500 C for times ranging from 50 to 10,000 h. Grain size measurements (vertical and horizontal mean linear intercept and horizontal and vertical projection) and analyses of iridium-thorium precipitates (size and spacing) were made on the longitudinal, transverse, and rolling surfaces of the as-recrystallized and aged specimens from which the two-dimensional spatial distribution and mean sizes of the precipitates were obtained. The results obtained from this study are intended to provide input to grain growth models.

Financial Permeation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Inoue, Takeshi; Hamori, Shigeyuki

2013-01-01

This article empirically analyzes the role of finance in economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa from the perspective of what is termed herein “financial permeation”. By estimating panel data on 37 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2004 and 2010, we examine whether financial permeation through improved convenience and access to financial services has contributed to economic growth in this region. Empirical results clearly indicate that financial permeation has a statistically significant ...

Forest Growth Responses to Drought at Short- and Long-Term Scales in Spain: Squeezing the Stress Memory from Tree Rings

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J. Julio Camarero

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Drought-triggered declines in forest productivity and associated die-off events have increased considerably due to climate warming in the last decades. There is an increasing interest in quantifying the resilience capacity of forests against climate warming and drought to uncover how different stands and tree species will resist and recover after more frequent and intense droughts. Trees form annual growth rings that represent an accurate record of how forest growth responded to past droughts. Here we use dendrochronology to quantify the radial growth of different forests subjected to contrasting climatic conditions in Spain during the last half century. Particularly, we considered four climatically contrasting areas where dominant forests showed clear signs of drought-induced dieback. Studied forests included wet sites dominated by silver fir (Abies alba in the Pyrenees and beech (Fagus sylvatica stands in northern Spain, and drought-prone sites dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris in eastern Spain and black pine (Pinus nigra in the semi-arid south-eastern Spain. We quantified the growth reduction caused by different droughts and assessed the short-and long-term resilience capacity of declining vs. non-declining trees in each forest. In all cases, drought induced a marked growth reduction regardless tree vigor. However, the capacity to recover after drought (resilience at short- and long-term scales varied greatly between declining and non-declining individuals. In the case of beech and silver fir, non-declining individuals presented greater growth rates and capacity to recover after drought than declining individuals. For Scots pine, the resilience to drought was found to be lower in recent years regardless the tree vigor, but the growth reduction caused by successive droughts was more pronounced in declining than in non-declining individuals. In the black pine forest an extreme drought induced a marked growth reduction in declining

Housing and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: Data-Based Evidence

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Andy Titus OKWU

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Housing is considered as one of the cardinalmeasures of the state of an economy. This paperemployed data-based evidence to explore housingsector-economic growth relationship in Nigeriaduring 1980-2015. Choice variables were realestate business services (REBS, building constructioninvestments (BCI, property rights index(PRI and human labor (L engaged in the sector.Anchored on perceived interactions amongthe variables, articulated conceptual modelpreceded an analytic model modifi ed from theendogenous growth model of economic theory.Graphical and econometric techniques were employedto analyze the data sets on the variablesfor trends in time series values of the variables;and the effects of the housing sector variableson growth of the economy. The results showedthat housing services delivery had long-run relationshipand signifi cantly spurred growth of theeconomy. Further, housing services delivery andgrowth of the economy had high speed adjustmentcoeffi cient to long-run equilibrium growthpath under stable structural housing sector servicesdelivery and appropriate human labor mixparticipation. Therefore, the paper concludedthat housing services enhanced growth of theeconomy, and emphasized the need for appropriatehuman, capital and fi nancial policies forthe sector to engender sustainable growth anddevelopment of the Nigerian economy.

SECTORAL SHARES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahmad, Nisar; Naveed, Amjad; Naz, Amber

2013-01-01

believe that structural change is an unimportant side effect of the economic development. On the contrary, economists associated with the World Bank and some others posit that growth is brought about by the changes in sectoral composition. The objective of this study is to empirically test...... the relationship between sectoral shares and economic growth by using the panel data for 20 developed countries. The results of the granger causality suggest that both services and agriculture sectors do granger cause economic growth, whereas industrial sector does not granger cause growth. Reverse causality does...... not hold for any of the three sectors. The results of Barro and Non-Barro regressions along with the set of control variables have suggested that services sector is negatively affecting growth, whereas both industrial and agriculture shares are positively affect economic growth....

Correlation between Government and Economic Growth –Fiscal Policy during the Transition in Albania

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MSc. Xhenet Syka

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we tried to analyze some aspects of fiscal policy in our country, without pretending to give our own sample. Fiscal policy is the use of government expenditures and taxes which affect economic activity. Determination of fiscal policy in a given year takes into account the time virtually the past (current socio-economic status and the implications for the future (fiscal sustainability. In general the cases dealt the role fiscal policy plays toward economic growth. The analysis many focused both in the theoretical treatment as well as the role that fiscal policy has played in our country, going even further in some suggestions for the future. The most important issue was addressed in the long-term fiscal policy view, fiscal sustainability. In the final everything is addressed to the role of fiscal policy on social issues. The role that fiscal policy should play in economic and social development has long been a controversial issue and is still different among economists. While a restrictive fiscal policy means increasing taxes and cut government spending. Fiscal policy may be expansionary or restrictive. An expansionary fiscal policy means a reduction of direct and indirect taxes and increased government expenditures. Choose between two types of fiscal policy is not an easy decision, both in terms of the current state of the economy, as well as political decisions.

Long-term efficacy of reverse pull headgear therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Andrew P; Sarver, David M; Proffit, William R

2006-11-01

To add to the data for long-term reverse pull headgear (RPHG) outcomes and further explore possible variables that could be predictors of long-term failure. Cephalometric radiographs of 41 Class III malocclusion children treated with RPHG (face mask) were evaluated before and immediately after treatment; at 5 years posttreatment; and, for 18 patients, at 10 years posttreatment. Patients were assigned to success or failure groups according to positive or negative overjet at the longest available recall. Seventy-five percent of the patients maintained positive overjet, whereas 25% outgrew the correction. In a stepwise discriminant analysis, a large mandible and vertical positioning of the maxilla and mandible so that mandibular growth would be projected more horizontally were the major indicators of unfavorable later mandibular growth. Patients who experienced downward-backward rotation of the mandible during RPHG treatment were more likely to be categorized in the failure group. The age at which treatment began had no effect on long-term success and failure for patients younger than 10 years, but the percentage of successful treatment decreased after that age. When RPHG treatment is used for all but the most obviously prognathic children to correct anterior cross-bite in the early mixed dentition, positive overjet is maintained long-term in 70%-75% of cases, whereas 25%-30% of cases relapse into reverse overjet mainly because of increased horizontally directed and often late mandibular growth. Up to age 10, the time at which RPHG treatment began does not appear to be a major factor in long-term success in maintaining positive overjet.

Socio-Economic Convergence as a Necessary Precondition and Determinant of Societal Growth

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Hudec Martin

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The issue of socio-economic convergence is nowadays more than ever an extremely dominant topic, especially in the case of less developed countries and countries suffering stagnation, mainly due to the integration processes occurring worldwide and the determinant to achieve long-term growth in an effort to advance towards the socioeconomic sustainable level of developed economies. A key assumption towards convergence is that economies with initially lower socio-economic levels will at some point reach (in an idea case or get very close the level of developed economies, gradually reducing the gap between the capital stock and the level of product size between countries, while the lower economic level the country has, the higher the growth rate it will go through the transition period. This suggests that the economies with lower levels of performance will grow on average at a higher rate than economies that are more efficient. It is therefore expected that the growth performance of a country will with its improvement also at some point slow down and quite realistically there can also occur a situation where the levels of development and growth of individual states economies will rather show delay. This is basically an opposite action to the concept of convergence, which is known as the divergence. The aim of our research paper is to analyze closely the concept of convergence, while pointing it is specifically characteristics and overall focusing on the significance of the issue of convergence.

Global economics/energy/environmental (E{sup 3}) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

1997-09-01

A global energy, economics, environment (E{sup 3}) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa. A trivariate causality test

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Odhiambo, Nicholas M. [Economics Department, University of South Africa (UNISA), P.O. Box 392, UNISA, 0003, Pretoria (South Africa)

2009-09-15

In this paper we examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa. We incorporate the employment rate as an intermittent variable in the bivariate model between electricity consumption and economic growth - thereby creating a simple trivariate causality framework. Our empirical results show that there is a distinct bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa. In addition, the results show that employment in South Africa Granger-causes economic growth. The results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short-run or in the long-run formulation. The study, therefore, recommends that policies geared towards the expansion of the electricity infrastructure should be intensified in South Africa in order to cope with the increasing demand exerted by the country's strong economic growth and rapid industrialisation programme. This will certainly enable the country to avoid unprecedented power outages similar to those experienced in the country in mid-January 2008. (author)

Association between economic growth and injury mortality among seniors in Colombia.

Science.gov (United States)

Trujillo, Antonio J; Hyder, Adnan A; Ruiz, Fernando

2010-12-01

Injuries among seniors are recognised as an important public health problem not only in developed countries but also in middle-income countries. There is ample epidemiological literature that relates economic growth to the reduction of infectious and childhood diseases. Less evidence exists to document if economic growth alone is enough to reverse the increasing trends of injury mortality and morbidity among seniors in a middle-income country. To investigate the association between economic growth and injury deaths among older people in Colombia. Using data from Colombia, 1979-2006 (n=28), time-series models were used to ascertain if the variation over time in injury mortality among seniors is related to short-term oscillations in economic performance. Four empirical specifications usually used in the analysis of such data were implemented. Models were run by type of injury and gender. A negative but moderate effect of economic growth was found on injury deaths among older people. The reported elasticity was between -0.98 and -1.26. Men benefit from economic growth more than women. Economic growth seems to reduce traffic injuries, suicides and homicides. A positive association was also found between falls and growth in gross domestic product. The results indicate a non-homogeneous association between economic growth and injury deaths among seniors in Colombia. This association is usually stronger in a negative direction among children and younger adults. Although more research is needed to understand the causal relationship between economic growth and injury, the association found may suggest that economic growth may not be sufficient to reverse injury deaths among older people; therefore, additional health policies need to be in place to reduce mortality due to preventable injuries in seniors.

Budget spending and economic growth in Croatia - Dynamics and relathionships over the past two decades

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Helena Blažić

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research is to analyze the relationship between government budget spending and the effect on the growth and structure of the GDP of Croatia during the past two decades. The starting working assumption (hypothesis is that the volume of total budget expenditure (including the foreign borrowing has not been realizing appropriate effect on GDP growth. In the analysis of these relationships we primarily use the method of vector autoregressions (VAR. The main result of the analysis showed that, in accordance with theoretical assumptions, the structure of expenditures is essential for the effects of budgetary spending on economic growth. We determine the positive effects of investment spending and purchases of goods and services and the negative effects of other categories of current spending. The reduction of capital expenditures during the recession presents a particularly adverse trend, which reduces the rate of growth of the economy in the long and short term. A fundamental conclusion of the research is that the budget expenditures have not adequately affected the GDP growth. Therefore, it is possible to affect the economic growth by changing the structure of budgetary spending, as well as directing public borrowing to investment financing.

Capital Market Development: A Spur to Economic Growth in Nigeria

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Ismail O. Fasanya

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between capital market development and Nigeria’s economic growth using data covering the range of 1981 to 2010 using a Johansen Cointegration technique to test for long run relationship among the variables under study. The empirical findings from the research work suggest that the capital market is an essential catalyst for economic growth and is on the average and beneficial to the economy. However, the high costs of raising capital and structural imbalances in the market as well as inconsistent government policies may distorts the speedy growth of the market and thus, limit its positive impact on the economy.

Optimal tax rate and economic growth. Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa

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Olufemi Muibi SAIBU

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The recent economic crisis had made developing countries to look inward for financial resources to finance development. The readily alternative is the tax revenues however, the possible adverse direct and indirect effects of tax on productivity and work efforts as well as on aggregate consumption had make some African countries (especially Nigeria and South Africa reluctant in implementing far reaching tax policy reform. This paper examines optimal tax burden and real output growth Nigeria and South Africa, two of the top four economies in Africa. The paper empirically determined what should be the optimal tax rate for Nigeria and South Africa-the two leading economies in Africa. The paper found that nonlinearity hypothesis in the effects of tax in the case of South Africa is rejected while a significant nonlinear relationship is found in the case of Nigeria. The results suggest that the growth-maximizing tax rate is about 15% of per capita GDP for South Africa and 30% for Nigeria. At that tax rate, the economic growth rate would be around 6% and 8% instead of the actual mean growth rate of 2.84% and 4.51% for South Africa and Nigeria respectively. The paper concluded the current tax burden in the two countries may be sub-optimal and may hurt long term sustainable growth process in the two countries

Sociological explanations of economic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, R M

1988-01-01

Even if questions of how resources are distributed within and between societies are the main concern, it is necessary to continue to grapple with the issue of the causes of economic growth since economic growth and level of development continue to be among the most important causes of inequality, poverty, unemployment, and the quality of life. This paper's dependent variable is the economic growth rate of 55 less developed countries (LDCs) over 2 time periods. 1970-78 and 1965-84. The causal model consists of control variables--level of development and domestic investment in 1965--and a variety of independent variables drawn from major sociological theories of economic growth published during the last 3 decades. Multiple regression analysis shows that, net of the effects of the 2 control variables, the variables which have the strongest effect on economic growth are: 1) direct foreign investment, which has a negative effect, 2) the proportion of the population in military service, and 3) the primary school enrollment ratio, both of which have positive effects on economic growth. On the other hand, variables drawn from some theories receive no empirical support. The mass media of communications, ethnolinguistic heterogeneity, democracy and human rights, income inequality, and state-centric theory's key variable, state strength, all fail to show any significant impact on economic growth rates when the control variables and the significant independent variables are held constant. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.

Introduction of long term cycle of reactor operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoyati, M.; Tanaka, T.

2004-01-01

Introduction of long term cycle of LWR reactor operation at NPP in Japan is considered, and problems of technical, legislative and economical character, increase of power coefficient are discussed. More long term operation period provides decreasing frequency of periodic inspections and reduction of personnel radiation doses. Reliability of fuel, energetic equipment, mechanisms and devices must be taken into account for the decision of technical problems. Consumptions for electric power generation are studied [ru

Factors affecting the course of body and kidney growth in infants with urolithiasis: A critical long-term evaluation

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Kemal Sarica

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: To investigate the possible effects of dietary, patient and stone related factors on the clinical course of the stone disease as well as the body and renal growth status of the infants. Patients and Methods: A total of 50 children with an history of stone disease during infancy period were studied. Patient (anatomical abnormalities, urinary tract infection - UTI, associated morbidities, stone (obstruction, UTI and required interventions and lastly dietary (duration of sole breast feeding, formula feeding related factors which may affect the clinical course of the disease were all evaluated for their effects on the body and renal growth during long-term follow-up. Results: Mean age of the children was 2.40 ± 2.65 years. Our findings demonstrated that infants receiving longer period of breast feeding without formula addition seemed to have a higher rate of normal growth percentile values when compared with the other children. Again, higher frequency of UTI and stone attacks affected the growth status of the infants in a remarkable manner than the other cases. Our findings also demonstrated that thorough a close follow-up and appropriately taken measures; the possible growth retardation as well as renal growth problems could be avoided in children beginning to suffer from stone disease during infancy period. Conclusions: Duration of breast feeding, frequency of UTI, number of stone attacks and stone removal procedures are crucial factors for the clinical course of stone disease in infants that may affect the body as well as kidney growth during long-term follow-up.

Technology Transfer, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The aim of this study is to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between various international factors and economic growth, as well as to assess the short-term impact of inward FDI, trade and economic growth on international technology transfer to Nigeria. To achieve this, the study used a time series data from ...

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CO2 EMISSIONS: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

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Chaido Dritsaki

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Energy plays an important role in economic development worldwide. The increase of energy consumption showed that CO2 emissions in the atmosphere have increased dramatically, and these lead many scientists to push governments of the developing countries to take action for the formulation of environmental policies. Many studies have attempted to look for the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions mainly on developing countries. This paper, therefore, applies the panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality test to investigate the relationship between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions for three countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Portugal covering the annual period 1960-2009. The FMOLS and DOLS are then used to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. The findings of this study reveal that there is a short-run bilateral causal link between the examined variables. However, in the long run, there is a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to energy consumption (EC, and economic growth (GDP and a bilateral causality between energy consumption and economic growth. This indicates that energy is a force for economic growth both in short and long run as it is driven from economic growth. Moreover, to face the heterogeneity on the three countries of Southern Europe we use the FMOLS and DOLS estimation methods.

HIV-related politics in long-term perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, S R

1998-06-01

Some long-term, large-scale socio-economic changes may affect the politics of HIV and other emerging viruses such as hepatitis C. It is useful to ask why the potential peace dividend of the early 1990s failed to provide adequate resources for HIV-related social and medical service delivery in developed or developing nations. This failure can be understood by looking at long-term global economic trends and the pressures they put on governments and corporations. They have produced a period in which fundamental issues of political and economic structure are at stake and, often, the response is a divide-and-rule politics to promote stability. National politics differ in terms of the extent to which such a 'politics of scapegoating' is institutionalized and in terms of which groups are scapegoated. Groups such as drug injectors, gay and bisexual men and sex traders are particularly likely to be targeted both by the scapegoaters and by HIV. Given this framework, how should public health professionals and activists engaged in HIV-related issues respond? Under what circumstances should we orient efforts upwards towards corporate, political or bureaucratic leaders? Under what circumstances, and how, should we orient towards popular forces? Relatedly, we need to consider an issue we often ignore: What do we have to offer potential allies? That is, in terms of their goals, philosophies and needs, why should they ally with us?

Final adult height in long-term growth hormone-treated achondroplasia patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Harada, Daisuke; Namba, Noriyuki; Hanioka, Yuki; Ueyama, Kaoru; Sakamoto, Natsuko; Nakano, Yukako; Izui, Masafumi; Nagamatsu, Yuiko; Kashiwagi, Hiroko; Yamamuro, Miho; Ishiura, Yoshihito; Ogitani, Ayako; Seino, Yoshiki

2017-07-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the gain in final height of achondroplasia (ACH) patients with long-term growth hormone (GH) treatment. We analyzed medical data of 22 adult patients (8 males and 14 females) treated with GH at a dose of 0.05 mg/kg/day. Optionally, tibial lengthening (TL) was performed with the Ilizalov method in 15 patients and TL as well as femoral lengthening (FL) in 6 patients. Concomitant gonadal suppression therapy with buserelin acetate was applied in 13 patients. The mean treatment periods with GH were 10.7 ± 4.0 and 9.3 ± 2.5 years for males and females, respectively. GH treatment augmented the final height +0.60 ± 0.52 SD (+3.5 cm) and +0.51 ± 1.29 SD (+2.8 cm) in males and females compared to non-treated ACH patients, respectively. Final height of ACH patients that underwent GH and TL increased +1.72 ± 0.72 SD (+10.0 cm) and +1.95 ± 1.34 SD (+9.8 cm) in males and females, respectively. GH, TL, and FL increased their final height +2.97 SD (+17.2 cm) and +3.41 ± 1.63 SD (+17.3 cm) in males and females, respectively. Gonadal suppression therapy had no impact on final height. Long-term GH treatment contributes to 2.6 and 2.1% of final adult height in male and female ACH patients, respectively.

Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Murayama, Kou; Pekrun, Reinhard; Lichtenfeld, Stephanie; Vom Hofe, Rudolf

2013-01-01

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage  = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

The Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL Analysis

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Eugene Iheanacho

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediary development and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981–2011 using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL approach to co-integration analysis. The results show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Nigeria is not significantly different from what has been observed generally in oil-dependent economies. The relationship between financial intermediary development and economic growth in Nigeria is found to be insignificantly negative in the long-run and significantly negative in the short-run. The results highlight the dominant role of the oil sector in economic activities in Nigeria.

A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

2005-02-01

This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

Nuclear Energy, Long Term Requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knapp, V.

2006-01-01

There are serious warnings about depletion of oil and gas and even more serious warnings about dangers of climate change caused by emission of carbon dioxide. Should developed countries be called to replace CO2 emitting energy sources as soon as possible, and the time available may not be longer then few decades, can nuclear energy answer the call and what are the requirements? Assuming optimistic contribution of renewable energy sources, can nuclear energy expand to several times present level in order to replace large part of fossil fuels use? Paper considers intermediate and long-term requirements. Future of nuclear power depends on satisfactory answers on several questions. First group of questions are those important for near and intermediate future. They deal with economics and safety of nuclear power stations in the first place. On the same time scale a generally accepted concept for radioactive waste disposal is also required. All these issues are in the focus of present research and development. Safer and more economical reactors are targets of international efforts in Generation IV and INPRO projects, but aiming further ahead these innovative projects are also addressing issues such as waste reduction and proliferation resistance. However, even assuming successful technical development of these projects, and there is no reason to doubt it, long term and large-scale nuclear power use is thereby not yet secured. If nuclear power is to play an essential role in the long-term future energy production and in reduction of CO2 emission, than several additional questions must be replied. These questions will deal with long-term nuclear fuel sufficiency, with necessary contribution of nuclear power in sectors of transport and industrial processes and with nuclear proliferation safety. This last issue is more political then technical, thus sometimes neglected by nuclear engineers, yet it will have essential role for the long-term prospects of nuclear power. The

Economic growth constraints in Vietnam: A study using the growth diagnostic approach

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Nguyen Duc Thanh

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Recent studies have clearly pointed out a decreasing trend of Vietnam’s economic growth in the short and the medium terms. This paper presents a study applying the growth diagnostic method for Vietnam to determine growth constrains. The binding growth constrains of Vietnam are found to include a poor business environment; an underdeveloped infrastructure, especially the transportation network market; failures related to information externalities, learning externalities and coordination failures. Notably, the energy infrastructure could be a vital constraint in a near future, but is not a binding constraint at present. The inefficiency of financial intermediaries and the government’s over-investment could become a binding constraint when the economy returns to its high growth path.

Foreign Direct Investment, Host Country Factors and Economic Growth

OpenAIRE

Edna Maeyen Solomon

2011-01-01

This paper analyses how the levels of economic development, human capital, financial development and the qualities of the economic and political environments in host countries simultaneously affects the impact of aggregate inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth. Multiple interaction terms are employed between inward FDI and each of the host country factors mentioned above. The System GMM estimator is applied to a panel of 111 countries from 1981 to 2005. The results sho...

Electricity regulation and economic growth

OpenAIRE

Costa, M. Teresa (Maria Teresa), 1951-; Garcia-Quevedo, Jose; Trujillo-Baute, Elisa

2018-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of electricity regulation on economic growth. Although the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth has been extensively analysed in the empirical literature, this framework has not been used to estimate the effect of electricity regulation on economic growth. Understanding this effect is essential for the assessment of regulatory policy. Specifically, we assess the effects of two major areas of regulation, rene...

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

Science.gov (United States)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

2016-01-01

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Why is electricity consumption inconsistent with economic growth in China?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Boqiang; Liu, Chang

2016-01-01

Studies have indicated that there exists a relatively stable and positive correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth and there should not be a large deviation between them. However, the deviation between electricity consumption and economic growth in China during the Asian Financial Crisis and Global Economic Crisis sparks intense debates. We attempt to explain the deviation from the perspective of inventory investment adjustment in the business cycle using the SVAR model in this paper. The results show that the effects of inventory investment adjustment shock and electricity consumption structure shock on the deviation are positive but tend to be negative for electricity efficiency shock. The results of historical decomposition of these shocks also show that the inventory investment adjustment shock is the main factor that influences the deviation during the Global Economic Crisis. Economic fluctuation in the short term can not change the economic development pattern and the characteristics of electricity demand. Once the economy returns to stable growth, the deviation between electricity consumption and economic growth will shrink and disappear soon. - Highlights: • We analyze the deviation between GDP and electricity consumption in business cycle. • The inventory investment adjustment mainly impacts the deviation in China. • Concentrated electricity consumption of heavy industry magnifies the deviation.

The implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share of income

OpenAIRE

Prettner, Klaus

2016-01-01

We introduce automation into the standard Solovian model of capital accumulation and show that (i) there is the possibility of perpetual growth, even in the absence of technological progress; (ii) the long-run economic growth rate declines with population growth, which is consistent with the available empirical evidence; (iii) there is a unique share of savings diverted to automation that maximizes the long-run growth rate of the economy; (iv) the labor share declines with automation to an ex...

Economic growth and health progress in England and Wales: 160 years of a changing relation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tapia Granados, José A

2012-03-01

Using data for England and Wales during the years 1840-2000, a negative relation is found between economic growth--measured by the rate of growth of gross domestic product (GDP)--and health progress--as indexed by the annual increase in life expectancy at birth (LEB). That is, the lower is the rate of growth of the economy, the greater is the annual increase in LEB for both males and females. This effect is much stronger, however, in 1900-1950 than in 1950-2000, and is very weak in the 19th century. It appears basically at lag zero, though some short-lag effects of the same negative sign are found. In the other direction of causality, there are very small effects of the change in LEB on economic growth. These results add to an emerging consensus that in the context of long-term declining trends, mortality oscillates procyclically during the business cycle, declining faster in recessions. Therefore, LEB increases faster during recessions than during expansions. The investigation also shows how the relation between economic growth and health progress changed in England and Wales during the study period. No evidence of cointegration between income--as indexed by GDP or GDP per capita--and health--as indexed by LEB--is found. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oil Consumption, CO2 Emission, and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Philippines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyoung-Min Lim

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This paper attempts to investigate the short- and long-run causality issues among oil consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in the Philippines by using time series techniques and annual data for the period 1965–2012. Tests for unit root, co-integration, and Granger-causality tests based on an error-correction model are presented. Three important findings emerge from the investigation. First, there is bi-directional causality between oil consumption and economic growth, which suggests that the Philippines should endeavor to overcome the constraints on oil consumption to achieve economic growth. Second, bi-directional causality between oil consumption and CO2 emissions is found, which implies that the Philippines needs to improve efficiency in oil consumption in order not to increase CO2 emissions. Third, uni-directional causality running from CO2 emissions to economic growth is detected, which means that growth can continue without increasing CO2 emissions.

Sustainable growth in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andreini, P.

1993-01-01

The measures till now adopted did not stop environmental deterioration in Europe and the growth of economic activities in the future will make the situation more and more heavy. The European Communities (EEC) Cabinet launched a long term program for a sustainable growth in Europe, which could conciliate economic needs with environmental protection. This paper presents the first part of the program

Long-term equilibrium effects of constraints in energy supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brookes, L.G.

1984-01-01

The subject is covered in sections, entitled: introduction; the economic role of energy; the economics of energy price; a first attempt to model long term effects (energy consumption and economic activity); what is a price hike (energy supply and demand functions before and after price hike); modelling energy price hikes; implications and lessons for nuclear energy; the present reality. (U.K.)

The economic growth of oil countries; La croissance economique des pays petroliers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arbod, G

2007-02-15

The literature tries to apprehend the weakness of the economic growth of oil culminates by the assumption of ousted growth factors. In the Dutch Disease models the non-oil exporting sector would be ousted whereas in the analyses in terms of economic policies it would be the efficient economic policies. We consider the phenomenon through the growth theories, the oil income being regarded as an additional exogenous income for the economy. In this manner the growth dynamic of oil countries, even the most unfavourable, can be modelled without utilizing any concept of economic inefficiency. The last part of our work is devoted to the Saudi economy. After having developed a macro-econometric model, and using scenarios of oil prices, we lead a forecasted analysis of this economy. (author)

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EQUALITY IN REDUCING POVERTY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zaenal Muttaqin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In some developing countries, the instrument to alleviate the poverty is by using the economic growth. So, the increasing in investment, infrastructure development, and macroeconomics stability always be priority from developing countries. In this article explain that economic growth is not the important factor to alleviate the poverty, because equality sometimes is more important rather than the economic growth. In this context, its measure by inequality growth trade off index (IGTI. This method is to measure the influence of economic growth to reducing the inequality, with this method every country can measure which one is better to reducing the poverty whether the economic growth or equality. With this method, Laos in 2000 show that economic growth is more important than equality, but in the same year in Thailand show that equality is more important than economic growth.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v1i1.2592

Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odhiambo, Nicholas M.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we examine the intertemporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Tanzania during the period of 1971-2006. Unlike the majority of the previous studies, we employ the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 289-326] to examine this linkage. We also use two proxies of energy consumption, namely total energy consumption per capita and electricity consumption per capita. The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long-run relationship between each of the proxies of energy consumption and economic growth. The results of the causality test, on the other hand, show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from total energy consumption to economic growth and a prima-facie causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth. Overall, the study finds that energy consumption spurs economic growth in Tanzania

Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania. An ARDL bounds testing approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Odhiambo, Nicholas M. [Economics Department, University of South Africa (UNISA), P.O. Box 392, UNISA, 0003, Pretoria (South Africa)

2009-02-15

In this paper, we examine the intertemporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Tanzania during the period of 1971-2006. Unlike the majority of the previous studies, we employ the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 289-326] to examine this linkage. We also use two proxies of energy consumption, namely total energy consumption per capita and electricity consumption per capita. The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long-run relationship between each of the proxies of energy consumption and economic growth. The results of the causality test, on the other hand, show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from total energy consumption to economic growth and a prima-facie causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth. Overall, the study finds that energy consumption spurs economic growth in Tanzania. (author)

Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Odhiambo, Nicholas M. [Economics Department, University of South Africa (UNISA), P.O. Box 392, UNISA, 0003, Pretoria (South Africa)], E-mail: nmbaya99@yahoo.com

2009-02-15

In this paper, we examine the intertemporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Tanzania during the period of 1971-2006. Unlike the majority of the previous studies, we employ the newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 289-326] to examine this linkage. We also use two proxies of energy consumption, namely total energy consumption per capita and electricity consumption per capita. The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long-run relationship between each of the proxies of energy consumption and economic growth. The results of the causality test, on the other hand, show that there is a unidirectional causal flow from total energy consumption to economic growth and a prima-facie causal flow from electricity consumption to economic growth. Overall, the study finds that energy consumption spurs economic growth in Tanzania.

Is subfertility or fertility treatment associated with long-term growth in the offspring?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bay, Bjørn; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Kesmodel, Ulrik Schiøler

2014-01-01

. CONCLUSION(S): There were no differences in child anthropometrics at 5 years between children conceived after fertility treatment or by subfertile parents compared with that of children born to fertile parents. However, children born after fertility treatment may show catch-up growth during childhood.......(S): A total of 3,478 mother-child pairs were sampled from the Danish National Birth Cohort, and 1,773 completed the outcome measurements. A total of 69 children were born after fertility treatment, whereas 132 were born to subfertile parents conceiving spontaneously but after a time to pregnancy of more than......OBJECTIVE: To study whether fertility treatment or subfertility is associated with long-term growth in the offspring. DESIGN: A prospective follow-up study including 1,773 singletons participating in the Lifestyle During Pregnancy Study at the age of 5. SETTING: Research centers. PATIENT...

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria: a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The paper examines the causal relationship between foreign direct investment ( FDI) and economic growth, measured by the gross domestic product (GDP). Augumented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was used for the unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test was conducted to establish short and long run relationship between ...

Too much of a good thing? Economic growth and human rights, 1960 to 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Wade M

2017-09-01

Despite widespread belief in the benefits of economic growth, some scholars emphasize the potentially negative consequences of growth-and especially rapid growth-for social and political outcomes. Using data for 149 countries between 1960 and 2010, I analyze the effect of economic growth on fundamental human rights conditions. Dynamic random-effects and two-way fixed-effects estimators, both with and without instrumental variables, yield several conclusions. First, economic growth is causally prior to rights conditions. Second, economic growth has a modest positive effect on human rights, albeit with diminishing returns at high growth rates. Third, low-income countries account for much of this relationship: growth improves rights conditions for most low-income countries, but extremely rapid growth is inimical. Growth has little effect among middle-income countries, while for high-income countries the relationship is positive but not robust. I bring these findings to bear on long-standing debates between proponents and critics of modernization theory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nasreen, Samia; Anwar, Sofia

2014-01-01

This paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth, trade openness and energy consumption using data of 15 Asian countries. The study covers the period of 1980–2011. We have applied panel cointegration and causality approaches to examine the long-run and causal relationship between variables. Empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration between variables. The impact of economic growth and trade openness on energy consumption is found to be positive. The panel Granger causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption, trade openness and energy consumption. - Highlights: • This study analyzes causality between energy, growth and trade in the Asian region. • Empirical results supported cointegrating relationship between variables. • Positive impact of growth and trade openness on energy usage is found in the long run. • Bidirectional Granger causality is observed between selected variables in the long run

Private long-term care insurance and state tax incentives.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevenson, David G; Frank, Richard G; Tau, Jocelyn

2009-01-01

To increase the role of private insurance in financing long-term care, tax incentives for long-term care insurance have been implemented at both the federal and state levels. To date, there has been surprisingly little study of these initiatives. Using a panel of national data, we find that market take-up for long-term care insurance increased over the last decade, but state tax incentives were responsible for only a small portion of this growth. Ultimately, the modest ability of state tax incentives to lower premiums implies that they should be viewed as a small piece of the long-term care financing puzzle.

Long-term funding and faithfulness to the original goal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoegren, G.

1999-02-01

The study describes long-term funding in terms of faithfulness to the original goals of the foundations. After having examined 20 different Swedish foundations three main categories of problems have appeared. The main threats to the original goals of the foundations are juridical problems, economic problems and a changing society. Fraud and embezzlement are covered by the Act (1994:1220) Concerning Foundations, but the law does not prevent unfaithfulness to the original goal of the foundation in terms of permutation. If the foundation is a private-established foundation the board has to apply for a change of the original goal to the Swedish Judicial Board for Public Lands and Funds. If the State, a municipality or a community establishes the foundation the Government can change the goal without permission of any other authority. Economic problems often strike smaller funds established by private persons, but State-established funds can also be hit by economical problems. The economic problems presented in the text are high tax levels, bad investments and problems getting donations. Both small private and large State-established foundations sometimes have to change their original goals as a result of a changing society. The goal of the foundation can be out-of-date, be against the ideology of the government party or the demography might have changed. Examples from each category are given in the text. The study is made to facilitate a description in general terms of the prospects for the Swedish nuclear funds if a final decision can not be made in the time span of 100 or 200 years. Looking back on the changes in the judicial, economical and political arenas during the last 200 years, one realizes the impossibility to foresee the changes that will occur within the next 200 years. The author's conclusion, after examined 20 foundation, is that it is impossible to establish a perfect long-term fund as we can not foresee the long-term future

Long-term funding and faithfulness to the original goal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sjoegren, G

1999-02-01

The study describes long-term funding in terms of faithfulness to the original goals of the foundations. After having examined 20 different Swedish foundations three main categories of problems have appeared. The main threats to the original goals of the foundations are juridical problems, economic problems and a changing society. Fraud and embezzlement are covered by the Act (1994:1220) Concerning Foundations, but the law does not prevent unfaithfulness to the original goal of the foundation in terms of permutation. If the foundation is a private-established foundation the board has to apply for a change of the original goal to the Swedish Judicial Board for Public Lands and Funds. If the State, a municipality or a community establishes the foundation the Government can change the goal without permission of any other authority. Economic problems often strike smaller funds established by private persons, but State-established funds can also be hit by economical problems. The economic problems presented in the text are high tax levels, bad investments and problems getting donations. Both small private and large State-established foundations sometimes have to change their original goals as a result of a changing society. The goal of the foundation can be out-of-date, be against the ideology of the government party or the demography might have changed. Examples from each category are given in the text. The study is made to facilitate a description in general terms of the prospects for the Swedish nuclear funds if a final decision can not be made in the time span of 100 or 200 years. Looking back on the changes in the judicial, economical and political arenas during the last 200 years, one realizes the impossibility to foresee the changes that will occur within the next 200 years. The author`s conclusion, after examined 20 foundation, is that it is impossible to establish a perfect long-term fund as we can not foresee the long-term future

Foreign Direct Investment or External Debt and Domestic Saving: Which has Greater Impact on Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Horas Djulius

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The choice taken by developing countries in meeting the lack of development funds has a varying effect. This study clarifies the role of foreign direct investment (FDI compared to foreign loans and domestic savings in short- and long-term economic growth of Indonesia. Data were obtained from World Bank and Bank Indonesia and used in error correction model to explain the linkage between predictors and economic growth. We show that in the short run, the three explanatory variables significantly affect economic growth. In the long run, compared to FDI and foreign loans, domestic savings positively and significantly affect economic growth. This study emphasizes the importance of sustaining domestic savings to maintain the stability of economic fundamentals in the long term.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v17i1.7120

High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

2012-01-01

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

City Population Growth and Economic Growth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Freire-Gibb, L. Carlos

2008-01-01

This article looks at the relationship between city population growth (intimately related to population proximity), and economic development. The hypothesis is that wherever dynamic and inclusive networks exist, there are more opportunities for economic development in this place. When these types...... of networks choose a tool (project, policy) to implement in the city, success will be more likely. Furthermore, virtuous circles will arise. The author gives an overview of two historical cases in urban growth, in Europe (1200-1800) and the U.S.A. (1800 to today)....

Financial Development, Environmental Quality and Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shushu Li

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In this study, the relationships between financial development, environmental quality and economic growth are studied based on data from 102 countries over the period 1980–2010 using the generalized method of moments (GMM estimation. The econometric results show the following three basic conclusions: First, both financial development and environmental quality have a significant impact on economic growth and should be included in the production function of the economic growth model as important variables. Second, there is a significant and robust “inverted U-shaped” relationship between financial development and economic growth; with the improvement of the level of financial development, economic growth would first increase and then decrease, which is consistent with the results of previous studies. Third, there is also a significant and robust “inverted U-shaped” relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, indicating that there exists a “critical point” at which achieving economic growth comes at the expense of environmental quality, and after passing the critical point, the deterioration of environmental quality will lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth. In addition, the econometric analysis in this paper also shows that there was a mutually promoting and strengthening relationship between financial development and environmental quality. Specifically, the degree of financial development can further strengthen the promoting effect of environmental quality on economic growth; meanwhile, an improvement in environmental quality can also strengthen the promoting effect of financial development on economic growth. Financial development and environmental quality could influence economic growth through strengthening the marginal product effects of capital and labor, which further indicates the that both financial and environmental factors play an important role in modern economic development.

R&D Expenditures and Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey

OpenAIRE

Cuma BOZKURT

2015-01-01

In today's world, globalization has reached to such an extent that, investment in information and technology is inevitable to be integrated with global system and increase competitive power. Therefore, R&D investments are of high importance and priority for growth process of economy. This paper investigates the long-run relationship between R&D expenditure and economic growth using the Johansen co-integration and the vector error correction models. The research findings indicate that there is...

The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Study of Asian Countries

OpenAIRE

K. P. K. S. Lahirushan; W. G. V. Gunasekara

2015-01-01

Main purpose of this study is to identify the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Asian Countries. Consequently, main objective is to analyze whether government expenditure causes economic growth in Asian countries vice versa and then scrutinizing long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. The study completely based on secondary data. The methodology being quantitative that includes econometrical techniques of cointegration, panel fixed effe...

Economic institutions and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the Economic Community of West African States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lazarus Z. Wanjuu

2017-12-01

Background: Economic institutions are considered as the fundamental cause of economic growth. Economic institutions affect economic growth through allocation of resources like physical and human capital. Unfortunately, there is dearth of empirical studies showing the impact of economic institutions on growth of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS. Aim: This study investigates the impact of economic institutions on economic growth of the ECOWAS. Setting and method: The study applied cause and effect relationship. The study used econometric research techniques of unit root and co-integration tests to establish the time series properties of the data; the vector error correction and co-integration regression models to estimate the population parameters. The research data comprised data obtained from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, the Transparency International (TI and Heritage Foundation databases. The variables employed were the real gross domestic product (GDP per capita (RGDPPC, corruption perception index (CPI, property rights protection (PROPRGT, private investment per capita (INVESPC, government expenditure per capita (GOEXPPC and trade openness (TRAOPN. Results: The results of the data analysed showed that economic institutions represented by the property rights index engender RGDPPC growth in ECOWAS. The CPI could not stimulate RGDPPC growth in ECOWAS. The results also show that all the other variables stimulated growth except trade openness. Conclusion: The study concludes that good economic institutions, private investments, and government intervention by providing security, economic and social infrastructural facilities are conducive for economic growth in the ECOWAS region. The study recommended that more efforts be made at curbing corruption in the region

ND/FE magnets: Industrial and economical problems in the short and long term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Falconnet, P.

1985-01-01

The Rare Earths (RE) world is a small and closed world that needs better communication with the outside and specially with new potential users. The availability of neodymium today is very linked to the existing applications like glass and capacitors. Though no short or long term scarcity can be foreseen, the Rare Earths Industry has to produce increasing amounts of various neodymium compounds and may have to invest in some finishing capacity before knowing which Nd compounds will be used by metal or magnet makers in some years. Despite the high energy product of Nd/Fe magnets some properties like Curie temperature need to be improved to find a large use. Similarly the production cost of these magnets is today rather high, and it will take some years to take advantage of large production scale. The industrial and economical problems of Nd/Fe magnets are discussed in this paper

ARDL Approach to Trade Libralisation and Economic Growth in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nneka Umera-Okeke

the long and short run impact of trade liberalization to economic growth suggested that ..... To ensure the goodness of fit of the model, diagnostic and stability tests are conducted. .... The results indicate the absence of any instability of the.

Technical change and economic policy: science and technology in the new economic and social context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-01-01

Links between scientific research, technological development, and economic growth by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development are analyzed. The analysis is broken into four parts: (1) The New Economic and Social Context; (2) Trends in R and D and Innovation; (3) Technological Change and the Economy; and (4) Conclusions and Recommendations. The long-term structural nature of many of the problems facing western Europe are emphasized, and the limitations of short-term-demand management strategies in solving them.

Do Access to Improved Water Source and Sanitation Facility Accelerate Economic Growth in Bangladesh?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandip SARKER

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship among access to improved water, sanitation and economic growth in Bangladesh through co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM over the period 1991 to 2014. Bangladesh has registered remarkable progress in achieving major Millennium Development Goals (MDG. Today nearly 87% of our total population has access to improved water sources and 60% have access to improved sanitation facilities which is contributing significantly towards human development in Bangladesh. Therefore we want to test whether access to improved water and sanitation accelerates economic growth in Bangladesh through a time series analysis. The Johansen co-integration tests indicate that there is long run association among the variables. The vector error correction model indicates that there is a long run causality running from improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access and improved water source (% of population with access to gross domestic product in Bangladesh. Similarly in the short run a causal relationship has been found among the variables as well. Further impulse response function and variance decomposition results say that improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access and improved water source (% of population with access can explain the major variations in our economic growth. The implication of our findings is that in Bangladesh an increase in improved access to water and sanitation is likely to positively affect our economic growth in the long run. Keeping in mind about Sustainable Development Goals (SDG, policymakers in Bangladesh need to pay special attention to ensure greater access to improved water and sanitation to boost our economic growth & development.

Long-term scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions: Summary of results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sathaye, J.

1991-01-01

Energy use in developing countries has risen more quickly than in the industrialized world, with a consequent increase in the developing world's share in global modern energy use from 16% in 1970 to 24% in 1987. As a result, while the developing countries' share of carbon dioxide emissions is small today, it is growing rapidly. The following is a brief summary of the aggregate results derived from the work on long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios for China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and the sic members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The countries experience varying rates of population growth between 1985 and 2025. The fastest growth rates occur in Africa - particularly in Nigeria and Ghana - and in the GCC. In Korea and China, where the governments have implemented policies to control the expansion of the population, the growth rates remain significantly lower. The economic growth rates correspond with national projections and/or expert judgment. GDP shows a wide variance across the study countries; and in each country distinct factors account for the differences in rates of growth. Argentina, for example, experiences a relatively slow increase in GDP as the foundation of its economy moves away from manufacturing and towards agriculture-based industry. In contrast, Korea's development of its less energy-intensive industries continues to fuel high rates of economic growth between 1985 and 2025

Entrepreneurial Diversity and Economic Growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

I. Verheul (Ingrid); A.J. van Stel (André)

2007-01-01

textabstractMost studies investigating the relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth treat entrepreneurs as a homogeneous group. This study investigates the impact of entrepreneurial diversity on national economic growth. Using data for 36 countries participating in the Global

The Effect of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Ghana | Appiah ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper uses time series data from 1972 to 2012 on Ghana to test the hypothesis that foreign aid can promote growth in developing countries. The ARDL approach to cointegration (bounds test) was employed to examine both the long run and short run relationships between aid and economic growth. The results of the ...

Evaluation of long term creep-fatigue life for type 304 stainless steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Ueno, Fumiyoshi; Aoto, Kazumi; Ichimiya, Masakazu; Wada, Yusaku

1992-01-01

The long term creep-fatigue life of type 304 stainless steel was evaluated by the creep-fatigue life prediction method based on a linear damage fraction rule. The displacement controlled creep-fatigue tests were carried out, and the time to failure of longer than 10000 hours was obtained. The creep damage of long term creep-fatigue was evaluated by taking into account the stress relaxation behavior with elastic follow-up during the hold period. The relationship between life reduction of creep-fatigue and fracture mode was provided by the creep cavity growth. The results of this study are summarized as follows; (1) The long term creep-fatigue data can be reasonably evaluated by the present method. The predicted lives were within a factor of 3 of the observed ones. (2) The present method provides the capability to predict the long term creep-fatigue life at lower temperatures as well as that at the creep dominant temperature. (3) The value of creep damage for the long term creep-fatigue data increased by elastic follow-up. The creep-fatigue damage diagram intercepted between 0.3 and 1 can represent the observed creep-fatigue damages. (4) The cavity growth depends on the hold time. The fracture of long term creep-fatigue is caused by the intergranular cavity growth. The intergranular fracture of creep-fatigue is initiated by the cavity growth and followed by the microcrack propagation along grain boundaries starting from creep cavities. (author)