WorldWideScience

Sample records for long-term ecological change

  1. Integrating Social Science into the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network: Social Dimensions of Ecological Change and Ecological Dimensions of Social Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles L. Redman; J. Morgan Grove; Lauren H. Kuby; Lauren H. Kuby

    2004-01-01

    The integration of the social sciences into long-term ecological research is an urgent priority. To address this need, a group of social, earth, and life scientists associated with the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network have articulated a conceptual framework for understanding the human dimensions of ecological change...

  2. Monitoring long-term ecological changes through the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network: science-based and policy relevant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, H; Brydges, T; Fenech, A; Lumb, A

    2001-01-01

    Ecological monitoring and its associated research programs have often provided answers to various environmental management issues. In the face of changing environmental conditions, ecological monitoring provides decision-makers with reliable information as they grapple with maintaining a sustainable economy and healthy environment. The Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN) is a national ecological monitoring network consisting of (1) about 100 case study sites across the country characterized by long-term multi-disciplinary environmental work conducted by a multitude of agencies (142 partners and counting); (2) a variety of less comprehensive yet more extensive monitoring sites; (3) a network where core monitoring variables of ecosystem change are measured; and (4) geo-referenced environmental observations. Environment Canada is the co-ordinating partner for the network through the EMAN Co-ordinating Office. EMAN's mission is to focus a scientifically-sound, policy-relevant ecosystem monitoring and research network based on (a) stabilizing a network of case-study sites operated by a variety of partners, and (b) developing a number of cooperative dispersed monitoring initiatives in order to deliver unique and needed goods and services. These goods and services include: (1) an efficient and cost-effective early warning system which detects, describes and reports on changes in Canadian ecosystems at a national or ecozone scale; and (2) cross-disciplinary and cross-jurisdictional assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes. The early warning system and assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes provide Environment Canada and partner organizations with timely information that facilitates increasingly adaptive policies and priority setting. Canadians are also informed of changes and trends occurring in Canadian ecosystems and, as a result, are better able to make decisions related to conservation and sustainability.

  3. Historical freshwater fish ecology: a long-term view of distribution changes and biological invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Clavero

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Past processes and events may have an important influence on contemporaneous ecological patterns, including current human impacts on landscapes and organisms. In spite of that, most of the ecological knowledge has been built upon short-term studies, which very rarely exceed one decade. Ecology and Conservation Biology have an important lack of historical approaches, a deficiency that may become a hindrance for the management of natural systems. In this talk I will present examples of how historical information on the distribution of freshwater fish and other aquatic organisms can be used to address ecological questions. Most analyses are based on two important Spanish historical written sources: the Relaciones de Felipe II (16th century and the Madoz Dictionary (19th century. The examples considered include the European eel (Anguilla anguilla, the brown trout (Salmo trutta, the common carp (Cyprinus carpio and the white clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius italicus, among other species, as well as questions related to biological invasions, habitat loss and the impacts of global warming. The outputs of ecological research based on historical data often become useful tools for present-day biodiversity conservation planning and actions.

  4. Modeling the ecological niche of long-term land use changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bajocco, S.; Ceccarelli, T.; Smiraglia, D.; Salvati, L.; Ricotta, C.

    2016-01-01

    Land use/land cover changes (LULCCs) represent the result of the complex interaction between biophysical factors and human activity, acting over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. The aim of this work is to quantify the role of biophysical factors in constraining the trajectories of

  5. Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Andrew C.; Glynn, Peter W.; Riegl, Bernhard

    2008-12-01

    Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on

  6. Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

    2012-01-01

    Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

  7. Long-term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s-2070s).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Li; Zhang, Chao; Chen, Minhao; Li, Jingxin; Yang, Lei; Huo, Zhaomin; Ahmad, Shahid; Luan, Xiaofeng

    2018-04-01

    Long-term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long-term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black-billed capercaillie ( Tetrao urogalloides ) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long-term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64-90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and

  8. The challenges of long-term ecological research in springs in the northern and southern Alps: indicator groups, habitat diversity, and medium-term change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia WIEDENBRUG

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available After extensive exploratory investigations into crenic habitats at the beginning of the 1990s, a number of springs were selected and long-term ecological research programmes independently initiated in the Berchtesgaden National Park (north-eastern Alps, Bavaria and the Adamello-Brenta Nature Park (south-eastern Alps, Trentino. Following more than a decade of standardized work, this paper presents a selection of results from both sides of the Alps, with a focus on zoobenthos in Bavaria and on pro- and eukaryotic algae in Trentino. In order to test the assumption that permanent springs are particularly suitable habitats for long-term ecological research, the following topics are addressed: (1 taxonomic diversity and relationships between diversity and spring typology; (2 transverse gradients in crenic habitats, hygrophilous terrestrial invertebrates and xerotolerant algae; (3 possibilities of documenting changes in species composition over decadal time scales ("medium-term" based on emergence traps, benthos, and benthic algae. The data obtained show that: (1 crenic habitats support particularly high biological diversity (but a thorough documentation of insect diversity is impossible without emergence studies; (2 helocrenes are the most species-rich habitats, for both invertebrates and diatoms; (3 dynamic (unstable and occasionally-impacted springs show identifiable signs of medium-term change, whilst particularly complex and stable crenic habitats seem to be controlled by internal processes. Our results suggest that: (1 the meiofauna is likely to react directly to environmental change, while emergers and the hygrophilous terrestrial fauna are indirectly affected, and (2 diatoms react both to direct effects of environmental change, e.g. discharge and hydrochemistry, and to indirect effects on the surroundings of the spring. Based on our results, long-term research strategies are discussed. For long-term studies, we propose a focus on meiofauna and

  9. Using body mass dynamics to examine long-term habitat shifts of arctic-molting geese: Evidence for ecological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tyler L.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Taylor, Eric J.; Bollinger, Karen S.

    2011-01-01

    From 1976 onward, molting brant geese (Branta bernicla) within the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, Alaska, shifted from inland, freshwater lakes toward coastal wetlands. Two hypotheses explained this redistribution: (1) ecological change: redistribution of molting brant reflects improvements in coastal foraging habitats, which have undergone a succession toward salt-tolerant plants due to increased coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion as induced by climate change or (2) interspecific competition: greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) populations increased 12-fold at inland lakes, limiting food availability and forcing brant into coastal habitats. Both hypotheses presume that brant redistributions were driven by food availability; thus, body mass dynamics may provide insight into the relevance of these hypotheses. We compared body mass dynamics of molting brant across decades (1978, 1987–1992, 2005–2007) and, during 2005–2007, across habitats (coastal vs. inland). Brant lost body mass during molt in all three decades. At inland habitats, rates of mass loss progressively decreased by decade despite the increased number of greater white-fronted geese. These results do not support an interspecific competition hypothesis, instead suggesting that ecological change enhanced foraging habitats for brant. During 2005–2007, rates of mass loss did not vary by habitat. Thus, while habitats have improved from earlier decades, our results cannot distinguish between ecological changes at inland versus coastal habitats. However, we speculate that coastal forage quality has improved beyond that of inland habitats and that the body mass benefits of these higher quality foods are offset by the disproportionate number of brant now molting coastally.

  10. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    The network dedicated to Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) in the United States has grown to 24 sites since it was formed in 1980. Long-term research and monitoring are performed on parameters thatare basic to all ecosystems and are required to understand patterns, processes, and relationship to change. Collectively, the sites in the LTER Network provide opportunities to contrast marine, coastal, and continental regions, the full range of climatic gradients existing in North America, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats in a range of ecosystem types. The combination of common core areas and long-term research and monitoring in many habitats have allowed unprecedented abilities to understand and compare complex temporal and spatial dynamics associated with issues like climate change, effects of pollution, biodiversity and landuse. For example, McMurdo Dry Valley in the Antarctic has demonstrated an increase in glacier mass since 1993 which coincides with a period of cooler than normal summers and more than average snowfall. In contrast, the Bonanza Creek and Toolik Lake sites in Alaska have recorded a warming period unprecedented in the past 200 years. Nitrogen deposition effects have been identified through long-term watershed studies on biogeochemical cycles, especially at Coweeta Hydrological Lab, Harvard Forest, and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. In aquatic systems, such as the Northern Temperate Lakes site, long-term data revealed time lags in effects of invaders and disturbance on lake communities. Biological recovery from an effect such as lake acidification was shown to lag behind chemical recovery. The long-term changes documented over 2 decades have been instrumental in influencing management practices in many of the LTER areas. In Puerto Rico, the Luquillo LTER demonstrated that dams obstruct migrations of fish and freshwater shrimp and water abstraction at low flows can completely obliterate downstream migration of juveniles and damage

  11. Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Field Sampling Plan for 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    T. Haney R. VanHorn

    2007-01-01

    This field sampling plan describes the field investigations planned for the Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Project at the Idaho National Laboratory Site in 2007. This plan and the Quality Assurance Project Plan for Waste Area Groups 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, and Removal Actions constitute the sampling and analysis plan supporting long-term ecological monitoring sampling in 2007. The data collected under this plan will become part of the long-term ecological monitoring data set that is being collected annually. The data will be used to determine the requirements for the subsequent long-term ecological monitoring. This plan guides the 2007 investigations, including sampling, quality assurance, quality control, analytical procedures, and data management. As such, this plan will help to ensure that the resulting monitoring data will be scientifically valid, defensible, and of known and acceptable quality

  12. Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Field Sampling Plan for 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Haney

    2007-07-31

    This field sampling plan describes the field investigations planned for the Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Project at the Idaho National Laboratory Site in 2007. This plan and the Quality Assurance Project Plan for Waste Area Groups 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, and Removal Actions constitute the sampling and analysis plan supporting long-term ecological monitoring sampling in 2007. The data collected under this plan will become part of the long-term ecological monitoring data set that is being collected annually. The data will be used t determine the requirements for the subsequent long-term ecological monitoring. This plan guides the 2007 investigations, including sampling, quality assurance, quality control, analytical procedures, and data management. As such, this plan will help to ensure that the resulting monitoring data will be scientifically valid, defensible, and of known and acceptable quality.

  13. Long-term, Ecosystem-Scale Changes in the Southern Benguela Marine Pelagic Social-Ecological System: Interaction of Natural and Human Drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Astrid Jarre

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available South Africa's small pelagics fishery is currently the largest in volume and second largest in value in the southern Benguela. It exploits short-lived, small pelagic fishes such as anchovy (for reduction into fish meal and oil and sardine (for reduction as well as human consumption through canned products, and to a lesser extent redeye round herring and mesopelagics, largely for reduction. We explore the recent history (1940s to present of the social-ecological system around this fishery. The natural subsystem, at the scales of the ocean environment and the ecosystem, is characterized by high interannual and documented decadal-scale variability. We characterize the human social subsystem at the scales of the fishing industry, legislation, and west coast fishing towns, and demonstrate interdependencies between the natural and social subsystems by following system-scale changes. The pelagic fishing industry has evolved to deal with variability through consolidation, diversification, and range expansion. Legislation has increasingly looked for conservation of the resource while ensuring economic viability of the industry, and hence factory- and vessel-related jobs. Fishing communities under apartheid stayed largely dependent on company-generated infrastructure, combining seasonal employment in the fishing factories with inshore fishing, targeting rock lobster and line fish. While the pelagic industry persisted and communities survived, the resource base for both offshore and inshore fisheries gradually eroded. The advent of democracy in the mid-1990s brought allocation of long-term fishing rights to individuals or companies under conditions of depleted inshore resources aggravated by a shift in the distribution of pelagic fish away from the west coast towards the Cape south coast in the second half of the 1990s. The resultant loss of employment and fishing rights in the inshore has generated community coping strategies that include poaching and

  14. Global change effects on the long-term feeding ecology and contaminant exposures of East Greenland polar bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Melissa A; Iverson, Sara J; Fisk, Aaron T; Sonne, Christian; Rigét, Frank F; Letcher, Robert J; Arts, Michael T; Born, Erik W; Rosing-Asvid, Aqqalu; Dietz, Rune

    2013-08-01

    Rapid climate changes are occurring in the Arctic, with substantial repercussions for arctic ecosystems. It is challenging to assess ecosystem changes in remote polar environments, but one successful approach has entailed monitoring the diets of upper trophic level consumers. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) and fatty acid carbon isotope (δ(13) C-FA) patterns were used to assess diets of East Greenland (EG) polar bears (Ursus maritimus) (n = 310) over the past three decades. QFASA-generated diet estimates indicated that, on average, EG bears mainly consumed arctic ringed seals (47.5 ± 2.1%), migratory subarctic harp (30.6 ± 1.5%) and hooded (16.7 ± 1.3%) seals and rarely, if ever, consumed bearded seals, narwhals or walruses. Ringed seal consumption declined by 14%/decade over 28 years (90.1 ± 2.5% in 1984 to 33.9 ± 11.1% in 2011). Hooded seal consumption increased by 9.5%/decade (0.0 ± 0.0% in 1984 to 25.9 ± 9.1% in 2011). This increase may include harp seal, since hooded and harp seal FA signatures were not as well differentiated relative to other prey species. Declining δ(13) C-FA ratios supported shifts from more nearshore/benthic/ice-associated prey to more offshore/pelagic/open-water-associated prey, consistent with diet estimates. Increased hooded seal and decreased ringed seal consumption occurred during years when the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was lower. Thus, periods with warmer temperatures and less sea ice were associated with more subarctic and less arctic seal species consumption. These changes in the relative abundance, accessibility, or distribution of arctic and subarctic marine mammals may have health consequences for EG polar bears. For example, the diet change resulted in consistently slower temporal declines in adipose levels of legacy persistent organic pollutants, as the subarctic seals have higher contaminant burdens than arctic seals. Overall, considerable changes are occurring in the EG

  15. Small-scale variations of climate change in mountainous forested terrain - a regional study from H.J. Andrews Long Term Ecological Research site in Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honzakova, Katerina; Hoffmann, Peter; Jones, Julia; Thomas, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    There has been conflicting evidence as to whether high elevations are experiencing more pronounced climate warming than lower elevations in mountainous regions. In this study we analyze temperature records from H.J. Andrews Long Term Ecological Research, Oregon, USA and several nearby areas, comprising together 28 stations located in Cascade Mountains. The data, starting in 1958, are first checked for quality and homogenized using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test. As a reference, composite climate time series based on the Global Historic Climate Network is created and together with cross-referencing against station records used to correct breaks and shifts in the data. In the next step, we investigate temperature patterns of the study site from 1958 to 2016 and compare them for valley and hill stations. In particular, we explore seasonality and inter-annual variability of the records and trends of the last day of frost. Additionally, 'cold' sums (positive and negative) are calculated to obtain a link between temperature and ecosystems' responses (such as budbreaks). So far, valley stations seem to be more prone to climate change than ridge or summit stations, contrary to current thinking. Building on previous knowledge, we attempt to provide physical explanations for the temperature records, focusing on wind patterns and associated phenomena such as cold air drainage and pooling. To aid this we analyze wind speed and direction data available for some of the stations since 1996, including seasonality and inter-annual variability of the observed flows.

  16. Stable Isotopes from Museum Specimens May Provide Evidence of Long-Term Change in the Trophic Ecology of a Migratory Aerial Insectivore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philina A. English

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the mechanisms of ecological change is challenging in the absence of long-term data, but stable isotope ratios of museum specimen tissues may provide a record of diet and habitat change through time. Aerial insectivores are experiencing the steepest population declines of any avian guild in North America and one hypothesis for these population declines is a reduction in the availability of prey. If reduced prey availability is due to an overall reduction in insect abundance, we might also expect populations of higher trophic level insects to have declined most due to their greater sensitivity to a variety of disturbance types. Because nitrogen isotope ratios (δ15N tend to increase with trophic-level, while δ13C generally increases with agricultural intensification, we used δ15N and δ13C values of bird tissues grown in winter (claw and during breeding (feathers from museum specimens spanning 1880–2005, and contemporary samples from breeding birds (2011–2013 to test for diet change in a migratory nocturnal aerial insectivore, Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus breeding in Ontario, Canada. To test if environmental baselines have changed as a result of synthetic N fertilizer use, habitat conversion or climate, we also sampled δ15N values of three potential prey species collected from across the same geographic region and time period. Over the past 100 years, we found a significant decline in δ15N in tissues grown on both the breeding and wintering grounds. Prey species did not show a corresponding temporal trend in δ15N values, but our power to detect such a trend was limited due to higher sample variance. Amongst contemporary bird samples, δ15N values did not vary with sex or breeding site, but nestlings had lower δ15N values than adults. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that aerial insectivore populations are declining due to changes in abundance of higher trophic-level prey, but we caution that

  17. Experimental Forests and climate change: views of long-term employees on ecological change and the role of Experimental Forests and Ranges in understanding and adapting to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurie Yung; Mason Bradbury; Daniel R. Williams

    2012-01-01

    In this project, we examined the views of 21 long-term employees on climate change in 14 Rocky Mountain Research Station Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFRs). EFRs were described by employees as uniquely positioned to advance knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies due to the research integrity they provide for long-term studies, the ability to...

  18. Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S. J.; Haberl, H.

    2012-04-01

    Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales Simron Jit Singh and Helmut Haberl Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Austria Understanding trajectories of change in coupled socio-ecological (or human-environment) systems requires monitoring and analysis at several spatial and temporal scales. Long-term ecosystem research (LTER) is a strand of research coupled with observation systems and infrastructures (LTER sites) aimed at understanding how global change affects ecosystems around the world. In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that sustainability concerns require extending this approach to long-term socio-ecological research, i.e. a more integrated perspective that focuses on interaction processes between society and ecosystems over longer time periods. Thus, Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research, abbreviated LTSER, aims at observing, analyzing, understanding and modelling of changes in coupled socio-ecological systems over long periods of time. Indeed, the magnitude of the problems we now face is an outcome of a much longer process, accelerated by industrialisation since the nineteenth century. The paper will provide an overview of a book (in press) on LTSER with particular emphasis on 'socio-ecological transitions' in terms of material, energy and land use dynamics across temporal and spatial scales.

  19. Long-term lunar stations: Some ecological considerations

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    Maguire, Bassett, Jr.; Scott, Kelly W.

    1992-01-01

    A major factor for long-term success of a lunar station is the ability to keep an agroecosystem functioning at a desirable, stable steady-state with ecological stability and reliability. Design for a long-lived extraterrestrial manned station must take into account interactions among its subsystems to insure that overall functionality is enhanced (or at least not compromised). Physical isolation of feed production, human living areas, recycling, and other systems may be straightforward, however, microbiological isolation will be very difficult. While it is possible to eliminate plant-associated microbiological communities by growing the plants asepticallly, it is not practical to keep plants germ-free on a large scale if humans are working with them. Ecological theory strongly suggests that some kinds of communities or organisms effectively increase the stability of ecosystems and will protect the plants from potential pathogens. A carefully designed and maintained (lunar-derived) soil can provide a variety of habitats for effective microbial buffers while adding structure to the agroecosystem. A soil can also increase ecosystem reliability through buffering otherwise large element and compound fluctuations (of nutrients, wastes, etc.) as well as buffering temperature level and atmosphere composition. We are doing experiments in ecological dynamics and attempting to extend the relevant theories.

  20. Interactive visual analysis promotes exploration of long-term ecological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    T.N. Pham; J.A. Jones; R. Metoyer; F.J. Swanson; R.J. Pabst

    2013-01-01

    Long-term ecological data are crucial in helping ecologists understand ecosystem function and environmental change. Nevertheless, these kinds of data sets are difficult to analyze because they are usually large, multivariate, and spatiotemporal. Although existing analysis tools such as statistical methods and spreadsheet software permit rigorous tests of pre-conceived...

  1. Cost considerations for long-term ecological monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caughlan, L.; Oakley, K.L.

    2001-01-01

    For an ecological monitoring program to be successful over the long-term, the perceived benefits of the information must justify the cost. Financial limitations will always restrict the scope of a monitoring program, hence the program’s focus must be carefully prioritized. Clearly identifying the costs and benefits of a program will assist in this prioritization process, but this is easier said than done. Frequently, the true costs of monitoring are not recognized and are, therefore, underestimated. Benefits are rarely evaluated, because they are difficult to quantify. The intent of this review is to assist the designers and managers of long-term ecological monitoring programs by providing a general framework for building and operating a cost-effective program. Previous considerations of monitoring costs have focused on sampling design optimization. We present cost considerations of monitoring in a broader context. We explore monitoring costs, including both budgetary costs, what dollars are spent on, and economic costs, which include opportunity costs. Often, the largest portion of a monitoring program budget is spent on data collection, and other, critical aspects of the program, such as scientific oversight, training, data management, quality assurance, and reporting, are neglected. Recognizing and budgeting for all program costs is therefore a key factor in a program’s longevity. The close relationship between statistical issues and cost is discussed, highlighting the importance of sampling design, replication and power, and comparing the costs of alternative designs through pilot studies and simulation modeling. A monitoring program development process that includes explicit checkpoints for considering costs is presented. The first checkpoint occurs during the setting of objectives and during sampling design optimization. The last checkpoint occurs once the basic shape of the program is known, and the costs and benefits, or alternatively the cost

  2. Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Maass

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii developing analytical tools for integration; (iii promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting

  3. Long-term ecological research in a human-dominated world

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Philip Robertson; Scott L. Collins; David R. Foster; Nicholas Brokaw; Hugh W. Ducklow; Ted L. Gragson; Corinna Gries; Stephen K. Hamilton; A. David McGuire; John C. Moore; Emily H. Stanley; Robert B. Waide; Mark W. Williams

    2012-01-01

    The US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network enters its fourth decade with a distinguished record of achievement in ecological science. The value of long-term observations and experiments has never been more important for testing ecological theory and for addressing today’s most difficult environmental challenges. The network’s potential for tackling emergent...

  4. Long-term changes in climatological calendar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaagus, J.

    1997-01-01

    Trends in time series of climatic seasons in Tartu, Estonia, during 1891-1995 are analysed using regression analysis. Two intermediate seasons between autumn and winter (late autumn, early winter), and two ones between winter and spring (late winter and early spring) are determined. The climatic seasons correspond quite well to individual stages of annual cycling of nature. Results of linear regression analysis demonstrate changes in climatological calendar reflecting the influence of global warming. Climatic seasons of spring period have moved to earlier time, and seasons of autumn period to later time. Statistically significant trends were observed for beginning date of early spring (12 days earlier), summer (11 days earlier) and late autumn (8 days later). Beginning date of winter has shifted 12 days later. Duration of summer season has increased by two weeks and duration of winter season has decreased by the same time. (author)

  5. How scientific visions matter: insights from three long-term socio-ecological research (LTSER) platforms under construction in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mauz, I.; Peltola, T.; Granjou, C.; Bommel, van S.; Buijs, A.E.

    2012-01-01

    Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research (LTSER) has been introduced to change the current approach to ecology and turn it into a big science. LTSER Platforms are currently being created across Europe. They are expected to enhance ecology's capacity to produce useful knowledge for facing global

  6. Evolution of collaboration within the US long term ecological research network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey C. Johnson; Robert R. Christian; James W. Brunt; Caleb R. Hickman; Robert B. Waide

    2010-01-01

    The US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program began in 1980 with the mission of addressing long-term ecological phenomena through research at individual sites, as well as comparative and synthetic activities among sites. We applied network science measures to assess how the LTER program has achieved its mission using intersite publications as the measure of...

  7. An assessment of long term ecosystem research activities across European socio-ecological gradients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, M J; Bunce, R G H; van Eupen, M; Mirtl, M

    2010-06-01

    Integration of European long term ecosystem research (LTER) would provide important support for the management of the pan-European environment and ecosystems, as well as international policy commitments. This does require appropriate coverage of Europe and standardised frameworks and research methods between countries. Emerging interest in socio-ecological systems prompted the present assessment of the distribution of LTER activities across European socio-ecological gradients. This paper presents a European stratification with a 1 km(2) resolution, delineating 48 broad socio-ecological regions. The dataset is based on an existing biogeophysical stratification constructed using multivariate clustering of mainly climatic variables and a newly developed socio-economic stratification based on an economic density indicator. The coverage of European LTER facilities across the socio-ecological gradients is tested using this dataset. The analysis shows two strong biases in the present LTER effort. Firstly, urban and disturbed regions are consistently under-represented, illustrating a bias for traditional ecological research away from human activity. Secondly, the Mediterranean, for which some of the most extreme global change impacts are projected, is receiving comparatively little attention. Both findings can help guide future investment in the European LTER network - and especially in a Long Term Socio-Ecological Research (LTSER) component- to provide a more balanced coverage. This will provide better scientific understanding of pan-European environmental concerns and support the management of natural resources and international policy commitments in the European Union. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Changing incentives for long-term gas contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohi, D.R.

    1992-01-01

    There is much concern about the absence of long-term gas contracts with fixed price and quantity conditions, which until recent years was the standard way of doing business in the gas industry. These types of contracts performed a valuable service in the development of the gas industry, and there comparative absence today is sometimes thought to be one reason for the current malaise in the industry. One hears the argument that there must be some kind of 'market failure' that prevents buyers and sellers from entering into these long term arrangements, and recent changes in state and federal regulations are often cited as the cause of the problem. The purpose of the author's remarks is to argue that what is taken as a breakdown in the market may be simply a reaction to a decline in economic incentives to enter into long-term contracts with rigid price and quantity terms. This is, in other words, simply one more aspect of change in the gas business that Frank Heintz referred to in his opening remarks this morning. The author starts by giving a brief description of the motives for engaging in long-term contracts, and then describes how incentives to use long-term contracts have declined for both gas buyers and gas sellers. He concludes that the decline in the use of long-term contracts is not cause for regulatory concern, but a result of the continuing transformation of the gas business to one that more closely resembles other commodity markets

  9. Monitoring the Long-Term Performance of Engineered Containment Systems: Role of Ecological Processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traynham, B.; Clarke, J.H.; Burger, J.; Waugh, J.

    2009-01-01

    Engineered covers have been widely used to minimize water infiltration into landfills used by U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the disposal of radioactive and hazardous chemical waste. The degradation of engineered covers over time is a complex process that is influenced by site specific characteristics, the structure and dynamics of the indigenous plant community, and the interplay of physical and biological factors at contaminated sites. It is necessary to develop a rigorous method to evaluate long-term performance of covers and other engineered barriers with quantification of risk and uncertainty. Because many of the contaminants of concern are long-lived, this methodology must consider changes in the environmental setting (e.g., precipitation, temperature) and cover components for long time periods (>100 years). Current monitoring approaches focus solely on hydrologic properties of the cover system. Additionally, cover design guidelines, such as those from RCRA, are not performance based and do not consider long-term site-specific influences such as climate, vegetation, and soils. Fundamental ecological processes such as succession are not even factored into current models, yet they directly affect the integrity of landfill covers through biointrusion, erosion, and water balance. Therefore, it is useful to identify ecological parameters and processes most important to performance for prioritization of site characterization and long-term monitoring activities. This investigation into the role of ecological monitoring of isolation containment systems utilizes the software platform GoldSim to identify important parameters and processes for performance verification and monitoring. (authors)

  10. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  11. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

  12. Long-term ecological research in the Czech Republic - case study with a 3-year project

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jelínková, E.; Straškrábová, Viera

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 2 (2001), s. 50-56 ISSN 1335-342X. [Long-Term Ecological Research Current State and Perspectives in the Central and Eastern Europe ILTER Regional Workshop /3./. Nitra, 23.05.2000-25.05.2000] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/98/0727 Keywords : long-term ecological research * acidification * eutrophication Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.192, year: 2001

  13. Short-term versus long-term changes in the benthic communities of a small coastal lagoon: implications for ecological status assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Félix, PM; Chainho, P; Costa, Jl; Correia, MJ; Chaves, ML; Medeiros, JP; Cabral, HN; Wouters, N; Bernardo, J; Costa, AM; Cristo, M; Silva, G; Azeda, C; Tavares, P; Costa, MJ

    2013-01-01

    The characteristic high variability and low predictability of coastal lagoons, due to strong changes in marine and freshwater inputs, make these ecosystems an interesting casestudy. The small Melides landlocked coastal lagoon in SW Portugal is a paradigmatic example, with a biological community highly stressed by these phenomena. Benthic macroinvertebrate samples were collected in 1998/99 and 2009 and each year, in different seasons and addressing different environmental conditions i...

  14. Long-Term Soil Chemistry Changes in Aggrading Forest Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer D. Knoepp; Wayne T. Swank

    1994-01-01

    Assessing potential long-term forest productivity requires identification of the processes regulating chemical changes in forest soils. We resampled the litter layer and upper two mineral soil horizons, A and AB/BA, in two aggrading southern Appalachian watersheds 20 yr after an earlier sampling. Soils from a mixed-hardwood watershed exhibited a small but significant...

  15. Long-term ecophysiological responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesgaard, Kristine Stove; Ro-Poulsen, Helge

    Plant physiology is affected by climate change. Acclimations of photosynthetic processes are induced by short-term changes in climatic conditions. Further acclimation can be caused by longterm adjustments to climate change due to ecosystem-feedbacks. The aim of this PhD was to investigate plant...... term responses of plant physiology to the climate change factors were investigated. In the CLIMAITE-experiment it has been shown that 2 years of treatment altered physiological responses in Deschampsiaand Calluna. In the work of this PhD similar responses were observed after 6 years of treatment...... physiological responses to climate change in a seasonal and long-term perspective. The effects of elevated CO2, passive night time warming and periodic summer drought as single factor and in combination, on plant physiology were investigated in the long-term multifactorial field experiment CLIMAITE in a Danish...

  16. Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB. The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.

  17. Long-term changes in the surface conditions of PLT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, S.A.; Dylla, H.F.; Rossnagel, S.M.; Picraux, S.T.; Borders, J.A.; Magee, C.W.

    1977-01-01

    Long-term changes in the surface conditions of the PLT vacuum vessel wall have been monitored by the periodic analysis of a variety of sample substrates (stainless steel, alumina, silicon), exposed to PLT discharges for periods of up to several months and subsequently removed for analysis by Auger electron spectroscopy (AES), photoelectron spectroscopy, ion backscattering, nuclear reaction analysis, secondary ion mass spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy

  18. Long-term fundus changes in acquired partial lipodystrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Joyce; Delaere, Lien; Spielberg, Leigh; Leys, Anita

    2013-11-18

    We describe long-term fundus changes in a patient with partial lipodystrophy (PL). Retinal pigment alterations, drusen and subretinal neovascularisation were seen without evidence for membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis. Fundus alterations similar to those seen in age-related macular degeneration can occur at an earlier age in patients with PL, even without renal disease. Dysregulation of an alternative complement pathway with low serum levels of C3 has been implicated as a pathogenetic mechanism.

  19. Reconciling change blindness with long-term memory for objects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Katherine; Simons, Daniel J

    2017-02-01

    How can we reconcile remarkably precise long-term memory for thousands of images with failures to detect changes to similar images? We explored whether people can use detailed, long-term memory to improve change detection performance. Subjects studied a set of images of objects and then performed recognition and change detection tasks with those images. Recognition memory performance exceeded change detection performance, even when a single familiar object in the postchange display consistently indicated the change location. In fact, participants were no better when a familiar object predicted the change location than when the displays consisted of unfamiliar objects. When given an explicit strategy to search for a familiar object as a way to improve performance on the change detection task, they performed no better than in a 6-alternative recognition memory task. Subjects only benefited from the presence of familiar objects in the change detection task when they had more time to view the prechange array before it switched. Once the cost to using the change detection information decreased, subjects made use of it in conjunction with memory to boost performance on the familiar-item change detection task. This suggests that even useful information will go unused if it is sufficiently difficult to extract.

  20. Long-Term Chemical Resistance of Ecological Epoxy Polymer Composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardeta Debska

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Resin concretes belong to a small group of building materials which, besides high strength parameters, also have a very good chemical resistance. This is confirmed by the studies carried out by various research institutions around the world. However, there is little data on the behaviour of composite resin exposed to corrosive solutions for an extended period of time. This article presents the results of the research on weight changes in samples of epoxy mortar modified with poly(ethylene terephthalate glycolysates, immersed for 5 years in four different aggressive media i.e. 10% aqueous solutions of sulphuric and nitric acids, sodium hydroxide, and sodium chloride. The actual average weight changes obtained were compared with the data calculated on the basis of the regression functions fitted to the data recorded after 3.5 years of exposure. This allowed verification of the model selection correctness and evaluation of the effectiveness of the fitted regression curve. In the case of aqueous sodium hydroxide and sodium chloride solutions, it can be assumed that the logarithmic model describes weight changes well. It was observed that the weight of the samples exposed to NaCl solutions and NaOH stabilizes over prolonged monitoring time and reaches a plateau. However, the weight changes in mortar samples immersed for 5 years in aqueous solution of sulphuric and nitric acids quite significantly differ from the data calculated on the basis of the trend line fitted to the results of the tests carried out after 3.5 years of exposure. It seems that the better solution in this case is the selection of an exponential model. In addition, placing the logarithmic trendlines for all corrosive media together on a chart allows to note which of the solutions is the most aggressive. It was found that after 5 years of immersion in aqueous solutions of acids, mortar samples became brittle, and the observation of their fractures confirmed the weakness of the

  1. Confluence of arts, humanities, and science at sites of long-term ecological inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederick J. Swanson

    2015-01-01

    Over the past century, ecology, the arts, and humanities diverged, but are now converging again, especially at sites of long-term, place-based ecological inquiry. This convergence has been inspired in part by the works of creative, boundary-spanning individuals and the long-standing examples of artshumanities programs in intriguing landscapes, such as artist and writer...

  2. The long-term ecological research community metada standardisation project: a progress report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inigo San Gil; Karen Baker; John Campbell; Ellen G. Denny; Kristin Vanderbilt; Brian Riordan; Rebecca Koskela; Jason Downing; Sabine Grabner; Eda Melendez; Jonathan M. Walsh; Masib Kortz; James Conners; Lynn Yarmey; Nicole Kaplan; Emery R. Boose; Linda Powell; Corinna Gries; Robin Schroeder; Todd Ackerman; Ken Ramsey; Barbara Benson; Jonathan Chipman; James Laundre; Hap Garritt; Don Henshaw; Barrie Collins; Christopher Gardner; Sven Bohm; Margaret O' Brien; Jincheng Gao; Wade Sheldon; Stephanie Lyon; Dan Bahauddin; Mark Servilla; Duane Costa; James Brunt

    2009-01-01

    We describe the process by which the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network standardized their metadata through the adoption of the Ecological Metadata Language (EML). We describe the strategies developed to improve motivation and to complement the information technology resources available at the LTER sites. EML implementation is presented as a mapping process...

  3. Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are

  4. Long-term runoff changes in regions of Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miklanek, Pavol; Pekarova; Pavla

    2004-01-01

    Mean annual runoff variability includes both natural and anthropogenic (climate change) impacts. Aim of the paper is to identify the long-term trends and the cyclic runoff components of selected Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000, and of the Danube river for the period 1840-2000. The variability is analysed by the long-term runoff trends of 27 Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000. The stations were included into the Slovak National Climate Program and they are supposed not to be influenced by anthropogenic activities except of possible climate change. Comparison of the monthly runoff series of the 27 rivers allowed us to draw 3 regions with different runoff trends on the territory of Slovakia (constant trend in Northern and Eastern Slovakia, slow decrease in Central Slovakia, and rapid decrease in Southern Slovakia; The identification of different cyclic components of the runoff series is included. The length of the series allows to identify the 22-year cycles as maximum. By means of the longer runoff series of the Danube river it is shown that the more dry periods occurred in the central Europe and Slovakia in mid 19 th century. The longer Danube series were used also to find the longer runoff cycles of about 31 and 46 years. The mean annual temperature in Europe was lower by 0.6 o C in mid 19 th century compared to 1990s. The temperature increase is put down to climate change impact. The driest period shown by Danube runoff series in mid 19 th century occurred before the start of the climate change. Therefore it is probable that the long-term runoff variability has its own dynamics as well. (Author)

  5. Changes in the properties of superalloys by long term heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susukida, H.; Tsuji, I.; Kawai, H.

    1976-01-01

    A laboratory study was conducted in order to determine the effect of long term heating (max. 10000h at 850 0 and 950 0 C) on the microstructure, tensile properties, hardness and stress rupture properties of four kinds of superalloys. These superalloys are two kinds of solid solution hardened Ni-base superalloys Hastelloy X and Inconel 617 and two kinds of dispersion strengthened Ni-base superalloys TD-Ni and TD-NiCr. The result of the study can be summarized as follows: (1) Solid solution hardened superalloys: Many precipitates were observed in the grains and on the grain boundaries after 100 hours of heating, and the precipitates became coarse-grained by over 1000 hours of heating. This tendency was remarkable when they were heated at 950 0 C. With the change of their microstructure, their mechanical properties also changed, particularly their tensile ductility decreased remarkably. (2) Dispersion strengthened superalloys: Their microstructure and mechanical properties were almost unchanged by long term heating. (3) The authors proposed ''solid solution hardening value'' in order to grasp quantitatively the solid solution hardening which has been discussed by the content of each element hitherto. (auth.)

  6. Microbial and plant ecology of a long-term TNT-contaminated site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, Emma R.; Bruce, Neil C.; Rosser, Susan J.

    2008-01-01

    The contamination of the environment with explosive residues presents a serious ecological problem at sites across the world, with the highly toxic compound trinitrotoluene (TNT) the most widespread contaminant. This study examines the soil microbial community composition across a long-term TNT-contaminated site. It also investigates the extent of nitroaromatic contamination and its effect on vegetation. Concentrations of TNT and its metabolites varied across the site and this was observed to dramatically impact on the extent and diversity of the vegetation, with the most heavily contaminated area completely devoid of vegetation. Bryophytes were seen to be particularly sensitive to TNT contamination. The microbial population experienced both a reduction in culturable bacterial numbers and a shift in composition at the high concentrations of TNT. DGGE and community-level physiological profiling (CLPP) revealed a clear change in both the genetic and functional diversity of the soil when soil was contaminated with TNT. - Long-term contamination of soil with TNT reduces the extent and diversity of vegetation, decreases culturable bacterial numbers and shifts the microbial community composition

  7. Implementing culture change in long-term dementia care settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, Jessica

    2016-01-06

    The approach to nursing in long-term care settings for people living with dementia continues to evolve from a traditional, task-oriented culture to one that is person-centred. Such change can be difficult to manage and may encounter considerable opposition; having an understanding of change management and leadership styles may help to make this transition easier. This article discusses the differences between task-oriented and person-centred care, theories of management, motivation and leadership styles, and focuses on those that are most appropriate for this type of change. An improved understanding of these theories will enable nurses to support others in the delivery of person-centred care.

  8. Long-term dataset on aquatic responses to concurrent climate change and recovery from acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leach, Taylor H.; Winslow, Luke A.; Acker, Frank W.; Bloomfield, Jay A.; Boylen, Charles W.; Bukaveckas, Paul A.; Charles, Donald F.; Daniels, Robert A.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Eichler, Lawrence W.; Farrell, Jeremy L.; Funk, Clara S.; Goodrich, Christine A.; Michelena, Toby M.; Nierzwicki-Bauer, Sandra A.; Roy, Karen M.; Shaw, William H.; Sutherland, James W.; Swinton, Mark W.; Winkler, David A.; Rose, Kevin C.

    2018-04-01

    Concurrent regional and global environmental changes are affecting freshwater ecosystems. Decadal-scale data on lake ecosystems that can describe processes affected by these changes are important as multiple stressors often interact to alter the trajectory of key ecological phenomena in complex ways. Due to the practical challenges associated with long-term data collections, the majority of existing long-term data sets focus on only a small number of lakes or few response variables. Here we present physical, chemical, and biological data from 28 lakes in the Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. These data span the period from 1994-2012 and harmonize multiple open and as-yet unpublished data sources. The dataset creation is reproducible and transparent; R code and all original files used to create the dataset are provided in an appendix. This dataset will be useful for examining ecological change in lakes undergoing multiple stressors.

  9. Changes of the eye during long-term spaceflight. Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Makarov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The review includes the publications of the scientific literature on the eye change during long-term spaceflight. The any eye changes such as visual impairment, hyperopic shift in refraction, changes in the intraocular pressure, increased the intracranial pressure, globe flattening, choroidal folding, optic disc edema, and optic nerve kinking and other changes were reported. The main cause of eye disorders, in all probability, is the increase of the intracranial pressure during long-term spaceflight. The reasons of the increased intracranial pressure are a collection of various factors of adaptation mechanisms in the body to weightless conditions. The leading role in the development of intracranial hypertension takes a redistribution of the body fluids (blood and lymph in the direction of the head, but the opportunities and the effect of other factors are present. Also the displacement and increase of the internal organs volume of the chest can cause external compression of the jugular veins, increasing the pressure of the blood in them, and as the result to lead to the increase of the intracranial pressure. The role of trigger such mechanisms in the development of the intracranial hypertension in the microgravity environment as anatomical predisposition of the body, race, metabolic changes under the influence of high carbon dioxide content in the different compartments of the station, high sodium intake, the enzyme dysfunction, weight exercises of the astronauts was discussed. However, the pathogenic mechanisms is currently still under investigation. An important role in the study of the adaptation mechanisms is given to research not only before and after the flight, but also during the space flight. The accumulated knowledge and experience about the changes in organs and systems in the conditions of human adaptation to microgravity will help answer many questions related to the implementation of the long spaceflights.

  10. Long Term Storage of cytogenetic changes in liquidators of Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karpov, V. B.

    2004-01-01

    At present chromosome aberration analysis in lymphocytes as well as micronucleus assay are most reliable methods of bio indication of radiation effects. The problem of persistent of cytogenetic changes during the long term after exposure is very important. The cytogenetic studies of liquidators residents of St. Petersburg and region revealed that the average chromosome aberration rate 4-5 years after the accident constitutes 4.94±0.38, number of aberrant cells was 4.82±0.36, dicentrics -0.23±0.10 per 100 cells, micronucleus number -46.1±2.1 per 100 cells that is significantly higher than in control group. dispersion analysis confirms the reported level of external exposure effects on chromosome aberration rate (?=0.04) in this group of liquidators. In 73 persons from the group of high risk participants of nuclear tests, nuclear submarine personnel 8-45 years after average number of chromosome aberrations was 6.5±0.32; dicentrics - 0.64±0.10, centric rings- 0.04±0.02 per 100 cells, for micronuclei -51.4±2.82 per thousand cells, that is significantly higher than in control group (p<0.01). In 45.2% cases the aberration markers (disentrics and centric rings) were found. The late cytogenetic effects were observed after decades and possibility to use these indicators for long term diagnosis is now under consideration. (Author)

  11. Social science in the context of the long term ecological research program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ted L. Gragson; Morgan Grove

    2006-01-01

    This special issue of Society and Natural Resources brings the results of long-term ecological research with an explicit social dimension to the attention of the social scientific research community. Contributions are from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER, the Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER, the Coweeta LTER and the Northern Temperate Lakes LTER. The range of practice...

  12. Status of the Southern Carpathian forests in the long-term ecological research network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovidiu Badea; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Diana Silaghi; Stefan Neagu; Ion Barbu; Carmen Iacoban; Corneliu Iacob; Gheorghe Guiman; Elena Preda; Ioan Seceleanu; Marian Oneata; Ion Dumitru; Viorela Huber; Horia Iuncu; Lucian Dinca; Stefan Leca; Ioan Taut

    2012-01-01

    Air pollution, bulk precipitation, throughfall, soil condition, foliar nutrients, as well as forest health and growth were studied in 2006–2009 in a long-term ecological research (LTER) network in the Bucegi Mountains, Romania. Ozone (O 3 ) was high indicating a potential for phytotoxicity. Ammonia (NH 3 ) concentrations rose to levels that could contribute to...

  13. Long-term ecological reflections: writers, philosophers, and scientists meet in the forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan Thompson

    2008-01-01

    Over the past 7 years, a strong collaboration has emerged between the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest ecosystem research group and the Spring Creek Project for Ideas, Nature, and the Written Word, an independently funded program for nature writing based in the Department of Philosophy, Oregon State University. The program is called Long-Term Ecological Reflections and...

  14. Long-term air temperature changes in a Central European sedge-grass marsh

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dušek, Jiří; Stellner, Stanislav; Komárek, A.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 2 (2013), s. 182-190 ISSN 1936-0584 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/2D1/93/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Carex acuta * fen * wetland * long-term monitoring * global change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.634, year: 2013

  15. Long-term bird study records Arctic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielinski, Sarah

    Alaska's summer of 2005 was the second warmest on record there, with a record retreat of arctic pack ice. As Alaskan temperatures gradually increase, artic birds, such as the black guillemots of Cooper Island, near Barrow, Alaska, are experiencing drastic habitat changes. Though these small black and white birds—the subjects of a long-term study of climate change—fared better this year than they have in the recent past (due to local cool conditions), they are nonetheless struggling to adapt as their artic island summer home becomes subarctic.George Divokyan ornithologist at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, discovered the Cooper Island colony of guillemots in the early 1970s and has spent every summer since 1975 there studying these birds. He presented his latest research during a 3 November talk in Washington, D.C.

  16. Long-Term Research in Ecology and Evolution (LTREE): 2015 survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, Mark A; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Feinberg, Geoffrey; Rosenthal, Seth A; Lau, Jennifer A

    2017-11-01

    To systematically assess views on contributions and future activities for long-term research in ecology and evolution (LTREE), we conducted and here provide data responses and associated metadata for a survey of ecological and evolutionary scientists. The survey objectives were to: (1) Identify and prioritize research questions that are important to address through long-term, ecological field experiments; and (2) understand the role that these experiments might play in generating and applying ecological and evolutionary knowledge. The survey was developed adhering to the standards of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. It was administered online using Qualtrics Survey Software. Survey creation was a multi-step process, with questions and format developed and then revised with, for example, input from an external advisory committee comprising senior and junior ecological and evolutionary researchers. The final questionnaire was released to ~100 colleagues to ensure functionality and then fielded 2 d later (January 7 th , 2015). Two professional societies distributed it to their membership, including the Ecological Society of America, and it was posted to three list serves. The questionnaire was available through February 8th 2015 and completed by 1,179 respondents. The distribution approach targeted practicing ecologists and evolutionary biologists in the U.S. Quantitative (both ordinal and categorical) closed-ended questions used a predefined set of response categories, facilitating direct comparison across all respondents. Qualitative, open-ended questions, provided respondents the opportunity to develop their own answers. We employed quantitative questions to score views on the extent to which long-term experimental research has contributed to understanding in ecology and evolutionary biology; its role compared to other approaches (e.g., short-term experiments); justifications for and caveats to long-term experiments; and the relative importance

  17. Ecological strategies for long-term sustainability of the Malaysian ricefield agroecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashhor Mansor

    2002-01-01

    Ecological concepts should be imposed in ricefield agroecosystem so that a long-term sustainability as well as a sound environmental condition could be achieved. Although several problems are envisaged, thus can be overcome by adopting various techniques which are based on ecological principles. Fundamental issues which involve biodiversity, environment and economic activities should be addressed. In the ricefield agroecosystem the water regime also plays a major role particularly in determining the temporal aspects of the ricefield niche. Different seasons in this case, the dry and wet can have different types of food webs. (Author)

  18. Does ecosystem variability explain phytoplankton diversity? Solving an ecological puzzle with long-term data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarker, Subrata; Lemke, Peter; Wiltshire, Karen H.

    2018-05-01

    Explaining species diversity as a function of ecosystem variability is a long-term discussion in community-ecology research. Here, we aimed to establish a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity in a shallow-sea ecosystem. We used long-term data on biotic and abiotic factors from Helgoland Roads, along with climate data to assess the effect of ecosystem variability on phytoplankton diversity. A point cumulative semi-variogram method was used to estimate the long-term ecosystem variability. A Markov chain model was used to estimate dynamical processes of species i.e. occurrence, absence and outcompete probability. We identified that the 1980s was a period of high ecosystem variability while the last two decades were comparatively less variable. Ecosystem variability was found as an important predictor of phytoplankton diversity at Helgoland Roads. High diversity was related to low ecosystem variability due to non-significant relationship between probability of a species occurrence and absence, significant negative relationship between probability of a species occurrence and probability of a species to be outcompeted by others, and high species occurrence at low ecosystem variability. Using an exceptional marine long-term data set, this study established a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity.

  19. Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

    2017-04-01

    At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the

  20. Data collection and storage in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies: The Mongoose 2000 system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Harry H; Griffiths, David J; Mwanguhya, Francis; Businge, Robert; Griffiths, Amber G F; Kyabulima, Solomon; Mwesige, Kenneth; Sanderson, Jennifer L; Thompson, Faye J; Vitikainen, Emma I K; Cant, Michael A

    2018-01-01

    Studying ecological and evolutionary processes in the natural world often requires research projects to follow multiple individuals in the wild over many years. These projects have provided significant advances but may also be hampered by needing to accurately and efficiently collect and store multiple streams of the data from multiple individuals concurrently. The increase in the availability and sophistication of portable computers (smartphones and tablets) and the applications that run on them has the potential to address many of these data collection and storage issues. In this paper we describe the challenges faced by one such long-term, individual-based research project: the Banded Mongoose Research Project in Uganda. We describe a system we have developed called Mongoose 2000 that utilises the potential of apps and portable computers to meet these challenges. We discuss the benefits and limitations of employing such a system in a long-term research project. The app and source code for the Mongoose 2000 system are freely available and we detail how it might be used to aid data collection and storage in other long-term individual-based projects.

  1. A data management proposal to connect in a hierarchical way nodes of the Spanish Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Daniel; Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Bonet García, Francisco J.; Moreno-LLorca, Ricardo A.; Sánchez-Cano, Francisco M.; Suárez-Muñoz, María

    2017-04-01

    another has no infrastructure to maintain their data (The Arid Iberian South East LTSER Platform). The last one (Environmental Information Network of Andalusia-REDIAM) acts as the coordinator, providing physical and logical support to other nodes and also gathers and distributes the information "uphill" to the rest of the network (LTER Europe and ILTER). The development of the network has been divided in three stages. First, existing resources and data management requirements are identified in each node. Second, the necessary software tools and interoperable standards to manage and exchange the data have been selected, installed and configured in each participant. Finally, once the network has been set up completely, it is expected to expand it all over Spain with new nodes and its connection to others LTER and similar networks. This research has been funded by ADAPTAMED (Protection of key ecosystem services by adaptive management of Climate Change endangered Mediterranean socioecosystems) Life EU project, Sierra Nevada Global Change Observatory (LTER-site) and eLTER (Integrated European Long Term Ecosystem & Socio-Ecological Research Infrastructure).

  2. Long-term visual changes following pituitary irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Movsas, Benjamin; Movsas, Tammy Z.; Steinberg, Seth M.; Okunieff, Paul

    1995-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze possible long-term effects of pituitary irradiation on visual fields and acuity. Methods and Materials: Eighty-six patients were treated with radiotherapy for pituitary tumors at the National Cancer Institute between 1980 and 1991. Twenty-one patients had baseline preradiation and long-term follow-up visual fields. Eyes were followed with serial Goldmann or Humphrey visual field testing. Neuroradiologic correlation was made with the available brain scans. There were 12 females and 9 males with an median age of 44. Eighteen patients had hormone-secreting tumors and three had chromophobe adenomas. All but one patient with an inoperable invasive macroadenoma were irradiated after one or more transphenoidal resections or a craniotomy. The indications for radiation in the operable patients were: nine patients, partial tumor resection; nine patients, tumor recurrence; and two patients, persistent hormonal elevation after surgery. The median dose delivered was 50 Gy (45-59.4 Gy). The average field size was 6 x 6 cm (5 x 5 cm to 10 x 12.5 cm). Results: With a median follow-up of 48 months (14-128) after radiotherapy, 1 out of 21 patients has recurred (at 8 months) and all patients are alive. Of the 38 sighted eyes, 27 had normal visual fields before and after radiation, 7 eyes showed improvement, and 4 eyes had a stable defect, mostly in the superior temporal region. There were no cases of radiation-induced visual field or acuity deterioration. Six out of 21 patients (29%) had neurologic symptoms in follow-up, most of which appeared vascular in nature. Four patients complained of atypical migranous-like headaches that first began 1.5-3 years following treatment. One patient complained of recurrent vertical diplopia and one patient had a cerebral vascular accident 7 years following therapy. A dose-related association with these neurovascular symptoms approached statistical significance. Only 1 out of 11 (9%) patients who received doses less than or equal

  3. The roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems: new insights from long term ecological research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblatt, Adam E.; Heithaus, Michael R.; Mather, Martha E.; Matich, Philip; Nifong, James C.; Ripple, William J.; Silliman, Brian R.

    2013-01-01

    During recent human history, human activities such as overhunting and habitat destruction have severely impacted many large top predator populations around the world. Studies from a variety of ecosystems show that loss or diminishment of top predator populations can have serious consequences for population and community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, there are relatively few studies of the roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems, so that we do not yet completely understand what could happen to coastal areas if large top predators are extirpated or significantly reduced in number. This lack of knowledge is surprising given that coastal areas around the globe are highly valued and densely populated by humans, and thus coastal large top predator populations frequently come into conflict with coastal human populations. This paper reviews what is known about the ecological roles of large top predators in coastal systems and presents a synthesis of recent work from three coastal eastern US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites where long-term studies reveal what appear to be common themes relating to the roles of large top predators in coastal systems. We discuss three specific themes: (1) large top predators acting as mobile links between disparate habitats, (2) large top predators potentially affecting nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors, and (3) individual specialization of large top predator behaviors. We also discuss how research within the LTER network has led to enhanced understanding of the ecological roles of coastal large top predators. Highlighting this work is intended to encourage further investigation of the roles of large top predators across diverse coastal aquatic habitats and to better inform researchers and ecosystem managers about the importance of large top predators for coastal ecosystem health and stability.

  4. Graduate students navigating social-ecological research: insights from the Long-Term Ecological Research Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydne Record; Paige F. B. Ferguson; Elise Benveniste; Rose A. Graves; Vera W. Pfeiffer; Michele Romolini; Christie E. Yorke; Ben Beardmore

    2016-01-01

    Interdisciplinary, collaborative research capable of capturing the feedbacks between biophysical and social systems can improve the capacity for sustainable environmental decision making. Networks of researchers provide unique opportunities to foster social-ecological inquiry. Although insights into interdisciplinary research have been discussed elsewhere,...

  5. Enabling long-term oceanographic research: Changing data practices, information management strategies and informatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Karen S.; Chandler, Cynthia L.

    2008-09-01

    Interdisciplinary global ocean science requires new ways of thinking about data and data management. With new data policies and growing technological capabilities, datasets of increasing variety and complexity are being made available digitally and data management is coming to be recognized as an integral part of scientific research. To meet the changing expectations of scientists collecting data and of data reuse by others, collaborative strategies involving diverse teams of information professionals are developing. These changes are stimulating the growth of information infrastructures that support multi-scale sampling, data repositories, and data integration. Two examples of oceanographic projects incorporating data management in partnership with science programs are discussed: the Palmer Station Long-Term Ecological Research program (Palmer LTER) and the United States Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (US JGOFS). Lessons learned from a decade of data management within these communities provide an experience base from which to develop information management strategies—short-term and long-term. Ocean Informatics provides one example of a conceptual framework for managing the complexities inherent to sharing oceanographic data. Elements are introduced that address the economies-of-scale and the complexities-of-scale pertinent to a broader vision of information management and scientific research.

  6. Long-term changes and trends in the upper atmosphere - An introduction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan; Akmaev, R. A.; Emmert, J. T.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 71, 14-15 (2009), s. 1511-1513 ISSN 1364-6826 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : long-term changes * long-term trends * upper atmosphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.643, year: 2009 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13646826

  7. Long-term memory and volatility clustering in high-frequency price changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    oh, Gabjin; Kim, Seunghwan; Eom, Cheoljun

    2008-02-01

    We studied the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). For all high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property was detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property was found in the volatility time series. The possible causes of the long-term memory property were investigated using the return data filtered by the AR(1) model, reflecting the short-term memory property, the GARCH(1,1) model, reflecting the volatility clustering property, and the FIGARCH model, reflecting the long-term memory property of the volatility time series. The memory effect in the AR(1) filtered return and volatility time series remained unchanged, while the long-term memory property diminished significantly in the volatility series of the GARCH(1,1) filtered data. Notably, there is no long-term memory property, when we eliminate the long-term memory property of volatility by the FIGARCH model. For all data used, although the Hurst exponents of the volatility time series changed considerably over time, those of the time series with the volatility clustering effect removed diminish significantly. Our results imply that the long-term memory property of the volatility time series can be attributed to the volatility clustering observed in the financial time series.

  8. Ecological impacts of long-term application of biosolids to a radiata pine plantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue, Jianming; Kimberley, Mark O.; Ross, Craig; Gielen, Gerty; Tremblay, Louis A.; Champeau, Olivier; Horswell, Jacqui; Wang, Hailong

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of the ecological impact of applying biosolids is important for determining both the risks and benefits. This study investigated the impact on soil physical, chemical and biological properties, tree nutrition and growth of long-term biosolids applications to a radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) plantation growing on a Sandy Raw Soil in New Zealand. Biosolids were applied to the trial site every 3 years from tree age 6 to 19 years at three application rates: 0 (Control), 300 (Standard) and 600 (High) kg nitrogen (N) ha −1 , equivalent to 0, 3 and 6 Mg ha −1 of dry biosolids, respectively. Tree nutrition status and growth have been monitored annually. Soil samples were collected 13 years after the first biosolids application to assess the soil properties and functioning. Both the Standard and High biosolids treatments significantly increased soil (0–50 cm depth) total carbon (C), N, and phosphorus (P), Olsen P and cation exchange capacity (CEC), reduced soil pH, but had no significant effects on soil (0–20 cm depth) physical properties including bulk density, total porosity and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. The High biosolids treatment also increased concentrations of soil total cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and lead (Pb) at 25–50 cm depth, but these concentrations were still considered very low for a soil. Ecotoxicological assessment showed no significant adverse effects of biosolids application on either the reproduction of springtails (Folsomia candida) or substrate utilisation ability of the soil microbial community, indicating no negative ecological impact of bisolids-derived heavy metals or triclosan. This study demonstrated that repeated application of biosolids to a plantation forest on a poor sandy soil could significantly improve soil fertility, tree nutrition and pine productivity. However, the long-term fate of biosolids-derived N, P and litter-retained heavy metals needs to be further monitored in the receiving

  9. Ecological impacts of long-term application of biosolids to a radiata pine plantation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xue, Jianming, E-mail: jianming.xue@scionresearch.com [Scion, Private Bag 29237, Christchurch (New Zealand); Kimberley, Mark O., E-mail: mark.kimberley@scionresearch.com [Scion, Private Bag 3020, Rotorua (New Zealand); Ross, Craig, E-mail: rossc@landcareresearch.co.nz [Landcare, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North (New Zealand); Gielen, Gerty, E-mail: gerty.gielen@scionresearch.com [Scion, Private Bag 3020, Rotorua (New Zealand); Tremblay, Louis A., E-mail: louis.tremblay@cawthron.org.nz [Cawthron Institute, Private Bag 2, Nelson (New Zealand); School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, PO Box 92019, Auckland 1142 (New Zealand); Champeau, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.champeau@cawthron.org.nz [Cawthron Institute, Private Bag 2, Nelson (New Zealand); Horswell, Jacqui, E-mail: jacqui.horswell@esr.cri.nz [ESR, P O Box 50-348, Porirua (New Zealand); Wang, Hailong, E-mail: hailong@zafu.edu.cn [Scion, Private Bag 3020, Rotorua (New Zealand); Key Laboratory of Soil Contamination Bioremediation of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Agricultural and Forestry University, Lin' an, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province 311300 (China)

    2015-10-15

    Assessment of the ecological impact of applying biosolids is important for determining both the risks and benefits. This study investigated the impact on soil physical, chemical and biological properties, tree nutrition and growth of long-term biosolids applications to a radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) plantation growing on a Sandy Raw Soil in New Zealand. Biosolids were applied to the trial site every 3 years from tree age 6 to 19 years at three application rates: 0 (Control), 300 (Standard) and 600 (High) kg nitrogen (N) ha{sup −1}, equivalent to 0, 3 and 6 Mg ha{sup −1} of dry biosolids, respectively. Tree nutrition status and growth have been monitored annually. Soil samples were collected 13 years after the first biosolids application to assess the soil properties and functioning. Both the Standard and High biosolids treatments significantly increased soil (0–50 cm depth) total carbon (C), N, and phosphorus (P), Olsen P and cation exchange capacity (CEC), reduced soil pH, but had no significant effects on soil (0–20 cm depth) physical properties including bulk density, total porosity and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. The High biosolids treatment also increased concentrations of soil total cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and lead (Pb) at 25–50 cm depth, but these concentrations were still considered very low for a soil. Ecotoxicological assessment showed no significant adverse effects of biosolids application on either the reproduction of springtails (Folsomia candida) or substrate utilisation ability of the soil microbial community, indicating no negative ecological impact of bisolids-derived heavy metals or triclosan. This study demonstrated that repeated application of biosolids to a plantation forest on a poor sandy soil could significantly improve soil fertility, tree nutrition and pine productivity. However, the long-term fate of biosolids-derived N, P and litter-retained heavy metals needs to be further monitored in the

  10. Quality Changes During Long Term Farmers’ Stock Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Since 2012, U.S. annual peanut production has increased 44% from an average of 2.6 million MT compared with 1.8 million MT (1997 and 2012). This production increase has resulted in longer storage times between harvest and shelling. A study was conducted to observe the changes in quality of farmers...

  11. Long-term changes in sea surface temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, D.E.

    1994-01-01

    Historical observations of sea surface temperature since 1856 have been improved by applying corrections to compensate for the predominant use of uninsulated or partly insulated buckets until the Second World War. There are large gaps in coverage in the late nineteenth century and around the two world wars, but a range of statistical techniques suggest that these gaps do not severely prejudice estimates of global and regional climatic change. Nonetheless, to improve the analysis on smaller scales, many unused historical data are to be digitized and incorporated. For recent years, satellite-based sea surface temperatures have improved the coverage, after adjustments for their biases relative to in situ data. An initial version of a nominally globally complete sea ice and interpolated sea surface temperature data set, beginning in 1871, has been created for use in numerical simulations of recent climate. Long time series of corrected regional, hemispheric, and global sea surface temperatures are mostly consistent with corresponding night marine air temperature series, and confirm the regionally specific climatic changes portrayed in the Scientific Assessments of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The observations also show an El Nino-like oscillation on bidecadal and longer time scales

  12. Long term impact of climate change on the metropolitan coast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    In its first part, this report describes global physical phenomena: air and sea temperature rise, modification of the tempest regime, precipitations, ocean stratification. Then, it describes some more specific physical effects of climate change: average sea level rise, sea currents (global, regional and local oceanic circulation), and wave modification on the coast. It describes the effects of various media due to sea submersion, erosion and accretion, ocean acidification, salinization increase of underground coastal waters, modification of the composition of biotic communities, biological invasions, and appearance of new toxicities for mankind

  13. Phase changes in superaustenitic steels after long-term annealing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svoboda, M.; Kroupa, A. [Inst. of Physics of Materials, Academy of Sciences of Czech Republic, Brno (Czech Republic); Sopousek, J.; Vrest' al, J. [Inst. of Theoretical and Physical Chemistry, Masaryk Univ., Brno (Czech Republic); Miodownik, P. [Thermotech Ltd, The Surrey Research Park, Guildford (United Kingdom)

    2004-11-01

    A structural study was performed on the austenitic steels Avesta 254 SMO and Avesta 654 SMO after annealing at 700 C for 500, 3188, and 6170 h. Both Avesta steels initially show an unexpectedly large amount of the Laves phase, followed by a relatively slow development of the Sigma phase with equilibrium apparently not yet reached after 3188 h. Thermodynamic calculations confirm that the driving forces for alternative precipitates are very similar thus making it easy to form metastable precipitates that only change very slowly to the equilibrium state. TTT calculations also confirm that the Laves phase precipitates earlier than the Sigma phase as the temperature is lowered. (orig.)

  14. Quality changes of Antarctic krill powder during long term storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Nina Skall; Lu, Henna Fung Sieng; Bruheim, Inge

    2017-01-01

    of packaging in vacuum was observed. The stability was assessed by changes in concentrations of lipid classes, antioxidants, pyrroles and lipid, and Strecker-derived volatiles. Some degradation occurred during storage at room temperature. Thus, a minor increase in volatiles, an increase in free fatty acids...... and a concomitant decrease in antioxidants, tocopherol, and astaxanthin was observed. In addition, there was a minor decrease in phospholipids and n-3 fatty acids; however, storage at vacuum improved the oxidative stability of krill powder. Practical applications: For the use of krill powder in human nutrition......, it is important, that the quality and stability is sufficiently high to retain the nutritional value during storage. This study contributes with information about the stability during storage up to 12 months at room temperature and the effect of packaging the powder in vacuum. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba...

  15. Hormonal changes during a long term isolation (SFINCSS-99 project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larina, I.; Custaud, M.; Gauquelin-Koch, G.; Gharib, C.; Grigoriev, A.; Nichiporuk, I.

    Long duration of space mission and functioning in Earth's orbit of the International Space Station make humans put up with spatial constraint for many months. From previous studies, it appears that confinement and inactivity can induce great psychological and physiological modifications by social and sensory deprivation. SFINCSS-99 experiment had the goal to determine the cardiovascular and the hormonal pattern of blood volume regulating hormones responses. Simulation experiments were performed in pressurized chambers outfitted with technical infrastructure including the systems for air regeneration, thermal and humidity air control, power supply, communications, TV monitoring, gas analysis and local electronic network. Three groups of test-subjects were functioning in parallel in adjacent modules, which mocked the ISS Russian and others segments. One33 crew (group I) occupied the 100 m module and the others the 200 m module (II &III). They could communicate and work together. Group I consisted from Russian males- volunteers aged of 37 to 48 who spent 240 days in chamber. Group II included 4 males (one German and three Russians) aged from 27 to 45, spent 110 days in isolation. In blood samples, drawing before, during and after isolation's period hormones were determined, in urine samples - excretion of hormones, electrolytes, nitrites, nitrates, and osmolality. The increase of plasma volume (hematocrit decrease in Group I was 13,2%: 42,7+/-0,5 vs 39,2+/-1,2; pGroup II - 4,1%: 44,3+/-1,0 vs 43,3+/-2,6) in association with a tendency to decrease in plasma renin activity (in Group I 13,1+/-3,5 vs 27,8+/-6,0) was likely to be due to decreased sympathetic activity, this do agree with the changes in urinary catecholamine (CA) during confinement. Urinary CA were significantly higher during the recovery period than during confinement (in Group I 341+/-44 vs 240+/-19, p< 0,05). This suggests that the sympathoadrenal system was activated, and agrees with the increase of

  16. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  17. Long Term Large Scale river nutrient changes across the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Victoria; Naden, Pam; Tipping, Ed; Davies, Helen; Davies, Jessica; Dragosits, Ulli; Muhammed, Shibu; Quinton, John; Stuart, Marianne; Whitmore, Andy; Wu, Lianhai

    2017-04-01

    During recent decades and centuries, pools and fluxes of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus (C, N and P) in UK rivers and ecosystems have been transformed by the spread and fertiliser-based intensification of agriculture (necessary to sustain human populations), by atmospheric pollution, by human waste (rising in line with population growth), and now by climate change. The principal objective of the UK's NERC-funded Macronutrients LTLS research project has been to account for observable terrestrial and aquatic pools, concentrations and fluxes of C, N and P on the basis of past inputs, biotic and abiotic interactions, and transport processes. More specifically, over the last 200 years, what have been the temporal responses of plant and soil nutrient pools in different UK catchments to nutrient enrichment, and what have been the consequent effects on nutrient transfers from land to the atmosphere, freshwaters and estuaries? The work described here addresses the second question by providing an integrated quantitative description of the interlinked land and water pools and annual fluxes of C, N and P for UK catchments over time. A national-scale modelling environment has been developed, combining simple physically-based gridded models that can be parameterised using recent observations before application to long timescales. The LTLS Integrated Model (LTLS-IM) uses readily-available driving data (climate, land-use, nutrient inputs, topography), and model estimates of both terrestrial and freshwater nutrient loads have been compared with measurements from sites across the UK. Here, the focus is on the freshwater nutrient component of the LTLS-IM, but the terrestrial nutrient inputs required for this are provided by models of nutrient processes in semi-natural and agricultural systems, and from simple models of nutrients arising from human waste. In the freshwater model, lateral routing of dissolved and particulate nutrients and within-river processing such as

  18. Long-term ecological behaviour of abandoned uranium mill tailings. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalin, M.

    1983-03-01

    Inactive uranium mill tailings were surveyed in the Province of Ontario to describe their surface characteristics, identify naturally invading biota, and determine essential chemical and physical parameters associated with the tailings. Inactive tailings sites can have wet areas, tailings completely covered with water, and dry areas. In the wet areas of most sites, wetland vegetation stands were found which were dominated by species of cattails (Typhaceae), along with some species of rushes (Juncaceae) and sedges (Cyperceae). Dry areas of the tailings exhibited a variety of surface features which are often a reflection of different amelioration efforts. Most of the indigenous species of vascular plants identified on dry areas of the tailings occurred only sporadically. Invading plants found on most sites were the tree species, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) and paper birch (Betula papyrifera). Elemental concentration and some physical characteristics of the tailings collected from a depth of 0-20 cm were determined. Uptake of heavy metals and radionuclides were evaluated in trees found in the dry areas and in cattails (Typha latifolia) in the wetland areas. Water bodies on tailings and surface water leaving the tailings, before and after treatment, were characterized in this survey. Aquatic bryophytes have invaded some water bodies on the tailings, and acid tolerant algae were evident in most of the water associated with the tailings. Ecological processes occurring on inactive uranium mill tailings which were identified in this survey are essential in evaluating the long-term fate of these waste sites

  19. [Thirty years of US long-term ecological research: characteristics, results, and lessons learned of--taking the Virginia Coast Reserve as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Gao-Ru; Porter, John H; Xu, Xue-Gong

    2011-06-01

    In order to observe and understand long-term and large-scale ecological changes, the US National Science Foundation initiated a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program in 1980. Over the past 30 years, the US LTER program has achieved advances in ecological and social science research, and in the development of site-based research infrastructure. This paper attributed the success of the program to five characteristics, i.e., 1) consistency of research topics and data across the network, 2) long-term time scale of both the research and the program, 3) flexibility in research content and funding procedures, 4) growth of LTER to include international partners, new disciplines such as social science, advanced research methods, and cooperation among sites, and 5) sharing of data and educational resources. The Virginia Coast Reserve LTER site was taken as an example to illustrate how the US LTER works at site level. Some suggestions were made on the China long-term ecological research, including strengthening institution construction, improving network and inter-site cooperation, emphasizing data quality, management, and sharing, reinforcing multidisciplinary cooperation, and expanding public influence.

  20. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: Application to the late Pliocene and future

    KAUST Repository

    Lord, Natalie S.

    2017-04-26

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  1. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    KAUST Repository

    Lord, Natalie S.

    2017-11-16

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  2. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    KAUST Repository

    Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O& apos; Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  3. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: Application to the late Pliocene and future

    KAUST Repository

    Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O& apos; Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

    2017-01-01

    Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

  4. The changing flow of management information systems in long-term care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, D F

    1997-08-01

    Over the past three decades, the long-term care community has seen continual increases in the complexity and sophistication of management information systems. These changes have been brought about by the ever-increasing demands on owners and managers to provide accurate and timely data to both regulators and financial investors. The evolution of these systems has increased rapidly in recent years as the nation attempts to reinvent the funding mechanisms for long-term care.

  5. Long-term space changes after premature loss of a primary maxillary first molar

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Yng-Tzer J.; Lin, Yai-Tin

    2016-01-01

    Background/purpose: The consequence of premature loss of primary teeth resulting in the need for space maintainers has been controversial for many years. There is no longitudinal long-term report in literature regarding the premature loss of a primary maxillary first molar. The aim of this study was to continue observing the long-term space changes of 19 cases following premature loss of a primary maxillary first molar during the transition from primary to permanent dentition. Materials an...

  6. Pristine aquatic systems in a Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site of the Brazilian Cerrado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Bárbara Medeiros; de Mendonça-Galvão, Luciana

    2014-12-01

    The maintenance of limnological monitoring programs in the Cerrado Domain is crucial as a provision of useful information about temporal variations in land use and their respective water quality responses, considering its importance as water source for different Brazilian hydrographic basins. The purpose of this research was to describe limnological variables of low-order lotic systems located in the Cerrado Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site (Environmental Protection Area (APA) Gama and Cabeça de Veado, Federal District of Brazil). Altogether, nine different streams were considered in this study. Samplings were conducted between 2010 and 2012, concentrated in the dry and rainy seasons. The sampling sites were generally characterized by low nutrient concentrations (e.g., medians, TP = 14.8 μg L(-1), TN = 20.0 μg L(-1), NO3 = 13.8 μg L(-1)) and slightly acidic waters (median, pH = 5.3), with quite low electrical conductivity values (median = 6.4 μS cm(-1)). However, water quality degradation as a response to diffuse pollution was reported in some sampling points (e.g., Onça and Gama streams), expressed by relatively higher N and P concentrations, which were probably highlighted by the good water quality of the data set as whole. Although there was a trend to higher values of nitrogen forms during the dry season, significant statistical differences between the seasonal periods were reported only for the variables temperature and dissolved silica, which were higher in the dry and rainy season, respectively. The streams located in the preserved areas inside the ecological stations of APA Gama and Cabeça de Veado can still be considered good examples of reference lotic systems in the Cerrado Domain; notwithstanding, this study reported incipient signs of water quality degradation which cannot be overlooked in future limnological monitoring.

  7. Restoration treatments in urban park forests drive long-term changes in vegetation trajectories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Lea R; Handel, Steven N

    2016-04-01

    Municipalities are turning to ecological restoration of urban forests as a measure to improve air quality, ameliorate urban heat island effects, improve storm water infiltration, and provide other social and ecological benefits. However, community dynamics following urban forest restoration treatments are poorly documented. This study examines the long-term effects of ecological restoration undertaken in New York City, New York, USA, to restore native forest in urban park natural areas invaded by woody non-native plants that are regional problems. In 2009 and 2010, we sampled vegetation in 30 invaded sites in three large public parks that were restored 1988-1993, and 30 sites in three large parks that were similarly invaded but had not been restored. Data from these matched plots reveal that the restoration treatment achieved its central goals. After 15-20 years, invasive species removal followed by native tree planting resulted in persistent structural and compositional shifts, significantly lower invasive species abundance, a more complex forest structure, and greater native tree recruitment. Together, these findings indicate that successional trajectories of vegetation dynamics have diverged between restored forests and invaded forests that were not restored. In addition, the data suggest that future composition of these urban forest patches will be novel assemblages. Restored and untreated sites shared a suite of shade-intolerant, quickly-growing tree species that colonize disturbed sites, indicating that restoration treatments created sites hospitable for germination and growth of species adapted to high light conditions and disturbed soils. These findings yield an urban perspective on the use of succession theory in ecological restoration. Models of ecological restoration developed in more pristine environments must be modified for use in cities. By anticipating both urban disturbances and ecological succession, management of urban forest patches can be

  8. Norway spruce crown structure changes under long-term multiple stress impact in Central European Mts

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Moravec, Ivo; Cudlín, Pavel; Polák, T.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 22, Suppl. 1 (2003), s. 252-255 ISSN 1335-342X. [Long Term Air Pollution Effect on Forest Ecosystems (International Meeting for Specialists in Air Pollution Effects on Forest Ecosystems)/20./. Zvolen, 30.08.2002-01.09.2002] R&D Projects: GA MŠk OK 355 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6087904 Keywords : Norway spruce * crown transformation * tree status Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.100, year: 2003

  9. Adaptive long-term monitoring of soil health in metal phytostabilization: ecological attributes and ecosystem services based on soil microbial parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epelde, Lur; Becerril, José M; Alkorta, Itziar; Garbisu, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    Phytostabilization is a promising option for the remediation of metal contaminated soils which requires the implementation of long-term monitoring programs. We here propose to incorporate the paradigm of "adaptive monitoring", which enables monitoring programs to evolve iteratively as new information emerges and research questions change, to metal phytostabilization. Posing good questions that cover the chemical, toxicological and ecological concerns associated to metal contaminated soils is critical for an efficient long-term phytostabilization monitoring program. Regarding the ecological concerns, soil microbial parameters are most valuable indicators of the effectiveness of metal phytostabilization processes in terms of recovery of soil health. We suggest to group soil microbial parameters in higher-level categories such as "ecological attributes" (vigor, organization, stability) or "ecosystem services" in order to facilitate interpretation and, most importantly, to provide long-term phytostabilization monitoring programs with the required stability through time against changes in techniques, methods, interests, etc. that will inevitably occur during the monitoring program. Finally, a Phytostabilization Monitoring Card, based on both ecological attributes and ecosystem services, for soil microbial properties is provided.

  10. Continued studies of long-term ecological effects of exposure to uranium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, W.C.; Miera, F.R. Jr.

    1977-06-01

    Studies of the long-term consequences of exposing terrestrial ecosystems to natural and depleted uranium dispersed during explosives tests at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) and test firing at Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB), Florida, were continued. Soils from EAFB, sampled before and after firing of depleted uranium penetrators against armor plate targets, indicated that the upper (0- to 5-cm-deep) soil usually contained more uranium than lower (5- to 10-cm-deep) soil. However, no significant changes were apparent in samples taken before and after the test firing. E-F explosive testing site at LASL was selected for intensive study of uranium redistribution during its 33-yr use. Highest surface soil (0- to 2.5-cm-deep) uranium concentrations occurred 0 and 10 m from the detonation point and averaged 4500 ppM. Concentrations in surface soil 50 and 200 m from the firing point were usually < 15% of that value. The uranium distribution to 30-cm depths showed significant penetration into the soil. Alluvium collected 250 m from the E-F detonation area in Potrillo Canyon indicated that surface (0- to 2.5-cm-deep) uranium concentrations were about 10% of those at the detonation point, and at 2.8 km they were twice background levels.

  11. Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Pei

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China. By using updated data and statistical methods, the study solved several unanswered questions from past research about the relationship between climate change and the nomadic migration, especially over the long term and on a large spatial scale. The study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively verify the following causal pathway: climate change â†' nomadic migration â†' conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists. In the long term, precipitation was a statistically more influential factor on nomadic migration than temperature in historical China. How climate change affects the migration of nomadic minorities in the long term is theoretically explained based on the Push-Pull model as well as statistical evidence.

  12. Drivers of inter-annual variation and long-term change in High-Arctic spider species abundances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bowden, Joseph J.; Hansen, Oskar L. P.; Olsen, Kent

    2018-01-01

    Understanding how species abundances vary in space and time is a central theme in ecology, yet there are few long-term field studies of terrestrial invertebrate abundances and the determinants of their dynamics. This is particularly relevant in the context of rapid climate change occurring...... in the Arctic. Arthropods can serve as strong indicators of ecosystem change due to their sensitivity to increasing temperatures and other environmental variables. We used spider samples collected by pitfall trapping from three different habitats (fen, mesic and arid heath) in High-Arctic Greenland to assess...... interpretation of long-term trends. We used model selection to determine which climatic variables and/or previous years’ abundance best explained annual variation in species abundances over this period. We identified and used 28 566 adult spiders that comprised eight species. Most notably, the abundances of some...

  13. Limnology of the Green Lakes Valley: Phytoplankton ecology and dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry at a long-term ecological research site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Matthew P.; McKnight, Diane M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Surface waters are the lowest points in the landscape, and therefore serve as excellent integrators and indicators of changes taking place in the surrounding terrestrial and atmospheric environment.Aims: Here we synthesise the findings of limnological studies conducted during the past 15 years in streams and lakes in the Green Lakes Valley, which is part of the Niwot Ridge Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) Site.Methods: The importance of these studies is discussed in the context of aquatic ecosystems as indicators, integrators, and regulators of environmental change. Specifically, investigations into climatic, hydrologic, and nutrient controls on present-day phytoplankton, and historical diatom, community composition in the alpine lake, Green Lake 4, are reviewed. In addition, studies of spatial and temporal patterns in dissolved organic matter (DOM) biogeochemistry and reactive transport modelling that have taken place in the Green Lakes Valley are highlighted.Results and conclusions: The findings of these studies identify specific shifts in algal community composition and DOM biogeochemistry that are indicative of changing environmental conditions and provide a framework for detecting future environmental change in the Green Lakes Valley and in other alpine watersheds. Moreover, the studies summarised here demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring programmes such as the LTER programme.

  14. Long-term changes in community assembly, resistance, and resilience following experimental floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Christopher T

    2012-10-01

    This study examined the long-term changes in community assembly, resistance, and resilience of macroinvertebrates following 10 years of experimental floods in a flow regulated river. Physico-chemistry, macroinvertebrates, and periphyton biomass were monitored before and sequentially after each of 22 floods, and drift/seston was collected during six separate floods over the study period. The floods reduced the density and taxon richness of macroinvertebrates, and a nonmetric dimensional scaling (NMDS) analysis distinguished temporal shifts in community assembly. Resistance (measured as the relative lack of loss in density) tofloods varied among taxa, and the abundance of resistant taxa was related to the temporal changes in community assembly. Community resistance was inversely related to flood magnitude with all larger floods (> 25 m3/s, > 16-fold over baseflow) reducing densities by > 75% regardless of flood year, whereas smaller floods (floods. No relationship was found between flood magnitude and the relative loss in periphyton biomass. Resilience was defined as the recovery slope (positive slope of a parameter with time following each flood) and was unrelated to shifts in community assembly or resistance. Macroinvertebrate drift and seston demonstrated hysteresis (i.e., a temporal response in parameter quantity with change in discharge) during each flood, although larger floods typically had two peaks in both parameters. The first peak was a response to the initial increases in flow, whereas the second peak was associated with streambed disturbance (substrate mobility) and side-slope failure causing increased scour. Drift density was 3-9 times greater and that of seston 3-30 times greater during larger floods than smaller floods. These results demonstrate temporal shifts in macroinvertebrate community assembly toward a pre-dam assemblage following sequential floods in this flow regulated river, thus confirming the ecological role of habitat filtering in

  15. Part 3. Assessment of adaptation reactions in the participants of the long-term medical & ecological investigations during the experiment Mars-500

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman M. Baevsky

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of the long-term medical & ecological investigations conducted during the experiment Mars-500. Methodology of conducting the long-term medical & ecological investigations and the applied methods are considered. The results are presented in the materials of the research conducted in Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus (Moscow, Syktyvkar, Yekaterinburg, Izhevsk, Magadan and Minsk. For comparative evaluation of the functional state of different reference groups the notion of “ecological stress” was introduced. It depends upon the degree of dominance of the activity of the sympathetic member of the regulatory system over the parasympathetic member. Application of probabilistic approach to the assessment of the functional state and adaptation level with the FR (functional reserve and the DT (the degree of tension of the regulatory mechanisms proved the detected peculiarities of the heart rhythm vegetative regulation. Clear dependency of the functional state of the volunteers on geographic location of regions and climatic parameters is observed. Almost every HRV indicator is characterized by seasonal dynamics. Seasonal dynamics data is exemplified by the research conducted in Yekaterinburg and Syktyvkar. During the earth-bound experiment Mars-500 flight conditions to Mars were simulated. Results of the long-term medical & ecological investigations conducted simultaneously with the experiment Mars-500 showed that health changes in practically healthy people do not usually exceed the limits of the prenosological state.

  16. Surviving in Changing Seascapes: Sediment Dynamics as Bottleneck for Long-Term Seagrass Presence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suykerbuyk, W.; Bouma, T.J.; Govers, L.L.; Giesen, K.; de Jong, D.J.; Herman, P.M.J.; Hendriks, J.; van Katwijk, M.M.

    2016-01-01

    Changes in the seascape often result in altered hydrodynamics that lead to coinciding changes in sediment dynamics. Little is known on how altered sediment dynamics affect long-term seagrass persistence. We studied the thresholds of sediment dynamics in relation to seagrass presence by comparing

  17. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

    2015-09-01

    It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

  18. Ecological effects of a long-term flood program in a flow-regulated river

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine Mannes

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Le régime hydrologique naturel de la grande majorité des rivières du globe a été modifié par une régulation artificielle, qui a profondément affecté la morphologie fluviale et la vie aquatique. L’intégration de critères hydrologiques comme le débit et la température dans les programmes de restauration constitue une étape importante pour la gestion de rivière. Cet article synthétise les observations, en terme de qualité physicochimique de l’eau et de biocénose aquatique, des effets d’une programmation de crues sur le long terme (15 crues artificielles en huit ans sur la rivière Spöl, dans le Parc National Suisse. Du fait des lâchers d’eau hypolimnétiques (issues des eaux profondes, ces crues ont peu d’impact sur les paramètres physiques et chimiques. La biomasse du périphyton a été réduite par les premières crues, puis s’est maintenue à des niveaux faibles pendant toute la période étudiée. La richesse spécifique, la biomasse et la densité de macro-invertébrés ont aussi été significativement réduites, et l’association de macroinvertébrés a évolué vers des taxons plus résistants aux perturbations. La qualité des habitats piscicoles, en particulier pour les zones de frai, a été sensiblement améliorée par les inondations. Une analyse plus approfondie a montré que la réponse de la biocénose à des crues d’ampleur similaire a changé pendant la période d’étude en parallèle avec la modification de la composition des associations biotiques.The natural flow regime of many rivers on the globe has been altered by regulation, strongly influencing river morphology and aquatic biota. The incorporation of regimebased criteria such as flow and temperature regimes in restoration plans is an important step in river management. This paper summarizes the effects of a long-term flood program (15 floods over 8 years on the river Spöl, Swiss National Park, on water physico-chemistry and river

  19. Rural Districts between Urbanization and Land Abandonment: Undermining Long-Term Changes in Mediterranean Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilaria Zambon

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigates changes in the rural landscapes of a Mediterranean country (Greece over a long time period (1970–2015 encompassing economic expansions and recessions. Using a spatial distribution of 5 basic agricultural land-use classes (arable land, garden crop, vineyards, tree crop and fallow land derived from official statistics at 6 years (1970, 1979, 1988, 1997, 2006, 2015, a quantitative analysis based on correlation and multivariate techniques was carried out to identify recent changes in the Greek agricultural landscape at prefectural level during different economic waves. Empirical results evidenced both intuitive and counter-intuitive landscape transformations, including: (i a progressive, spatially-homogeneous reduction of cropland; (ii a (more or less rapid decrease in the surface of high-input crops, including arable land, horticulture and vineyards; (iii a parallel increase in the surface of tree crops, especially olive; (iv a spatially-heterogeneous decrease of fallow land concentrated in metropolitan and tourism districts, especially in the last decade; and, finally, (v increasingly diversified landscapes in rural, accessible areas close to the sea coast. Based on a correlation analysis with background socioeconomic indicators, our findings reflect the multiple impacts of urbanization and land abandonment on the composition and diversity of rural landscapes. Changes in agricultural land-use were moulded by multiple drivers depending on latent transformations in rural systems and inherent conflicts with expanding urban regions. Together with market conditions and the Common Agricultural Policy subsidy regime, social contexts and the economic cycle are important when identifying long-term changes in agricultural landscapes, especially in transitional socio-ecological systems.

  20. Medium-long term soil resilience against different disturbances: wildfires, silvicultural treatments and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedo de Santiago, Javier; Borja, Manuel Esteban Lucas; de las Heras, Jorge

    2016-04-01

    Soils of semiarid Mediterranean forest ecosystems are very fragile and sensitive to changes due to different anthropogenic and natural disturbances. The increasing vulnerability of semiarid lands within this world framework has generated growing awareness in the field of research, with highly intensified study into soils properties. One of the main problems of Mediterranean forests is wildfire disturbance. Fire should be considered more an ecological factor but, in contrast to the role of fire, it is now a closely related factor to human action. On the other hand, to improve the recovery of forest communities after fire, silvicultural treatments are needed and, for that matter, another disturbance is added to the ecosystem. By last, climate change is also affecting the fire regime increasing fire frequency and burned area, enhancing the destructiveness to Mediterranean ecosystems. After all of these three disturbances, changes in vegetation dynamics and soil properties are expected to occur due to the plant-soil feedback. Soil plays an essential role in the forest ecosystem's fertility and stability and specifically soil microorganisms, which accomplish reactions to release soil nutrients for vegetation development, for that is essential to enlarge knowledge about soil properties resilience in semiarid forest ecosystems. Physico-chemical and microbiological soil properties, and enzyme activities have been studied in two Aleppo pine forest stands that have suffered three disturbances: 1) a wildfire event, 2) silvicultural treatments (thinning) and 3) an artificial drought (simulating climate change) and results showed that soil recovered after 15 years. Final results showed that soils have been recovered from the three disturbances at the medium-long term.

  1. Long-term socio-ecological forest research in southeast France

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teissier du Cros, E.; Bariteau, M.; Kramer, K.

    2004-01-01

    France concentrates its research involving Mediterranean forests and related land-use on a series of long-term study sites meant to assess the effect of historical land-use on the current distribution of forest tree species and on the adaptability of these ecosystems to natural and anthropogenic

  2. An assessment of long term ecosystem research activities across European socio-ecological gradients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metzger, M.J.; Bunce, R.G.H.; Eupen, van M.; Mirtl, M.

    2010-01-01

    Integration of European long term ecosystem research (LTER) would provide important support for the management of the pan-European environment and ecosystems, as well as international policy commitments. This does require appropriate coverage of Europe and standardised frameworks and research

  3. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Philip [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); McMaster University, Population Health Research Institute, Department of Medicine, and Department of Radiology, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Cardiology Division and Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Boston, MA (United States); Mani, Venkatesh [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Kallend, David [The Medicines Company, Parsippany, NJ (United States); Rudd, James H.F. [University of Cambridge, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Fayad, Zahi A. [Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States); Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, Hess CSM Building Floor TMII, Rm S1-104, Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute and Department of Radiology, New York, NY (United States)

    2017-01-15

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  4. Short-term changes in arterial inflammation predict long-term changes in atherosclerosis progression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joseph, Philip; Ishai, Amorina; Tawakol, Ahmed; Mani, Venkatesh; Kallend, David; Rudd, James H.F.; Fayad, Zahi A.

    2017-01-01

    It remains unclear whether changes in arterial wall inflammation are associated with subsequent changes in the rate of structural progression of atherosclerosis. In this sub-study of the dal-PLAQUE clinical trial, multi-modal imaging was performed using 18-fludeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET, at 0 and 6 months) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI, at 0 and 24 months). The primary objective was to determine whether increasing FDG uptake at 6 months predicted atherosclerosis progression on MRI at 2 years. Arterial inflammation was measured by the carotid FDG target-to-background ratio (TBR), and atherosclerotic plaque progression was defined as the percentage change in carotid mean wall area (MWA) and mean wall thickness (MWT) on MRI between baseline and 24 months. A total of 42 participants were included in this sub-study. The mean age of the population was 62.5 years, and 12 (28.6 %) were women. In participants with (vs. without) any increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months, the long-term changes in both MWT (% change MWT: 17.49 % vs. 1.74 %, p = 0.038) and MWA (% change MWA: 25.50 % vs. 3.59 %, p = 0.027) were significantly greater. Results remained significant after adjusting for clinical and biochemical covariates. Individuals with no increase in arterial inflammation over 6 months had no significant structural progression of atherosclerosis over 24 months as measured by MWT (p = 0.616) or MWA (p = 0.373). Short-term changes in arterial inflammation are associated with long-term structural atherosclerosis progression. These data support the concept that therapies that reduce arterial inflammation may attenuate or halt progression of atherosclerosis. (orig.)

  5. Untangling individual variation in natural populations: ecological, genetic and epigenetic correlates of long-term inequality in herbivory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, C M; Bazaga, P

    2011-04-01

    Individual variation in ecologically important features of organisms is a crucial element in ecology and evolution, yet disentangling its underlying causes is difficult in natural populations. We applied a genomic scan approach using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers to quantify the genetic basis of long-term individual differences in herbivory by mammals at a wild population of the violet Viola cazorlensis monitored for two decades. In addition, methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) analyses were used to investigate the association between browsing damage and epigenetic characteristics of individuals, an aspect that has been not previously explored for any wild plant. Structural equation modelling was used to identify likely causal structures linking genotypes, epigenotypes and herbivory. Individuals of V. cazorlensis differed widely in the incidence of browsing mammals over the 20-year study period. Six AFLP markers (1.6% of total) were significantly related to herbivory, accounting altogether for 44% of population-wide variance in herbivory levels. MSAP analyses revealed considerable epigenetic variation among individuals, and differential browsing damage was significantly related to variation in multilocus epigenotypes. In addition, variation across plants in epigenetic characteristics was related to variation in several herbivory-related AFLP markers. Statistical comparison of alternative causal models suggested that individual differences in herbivory are the outcome of a complex causal structure where genotypes and epigenotypes are interconnected and have direct and indirect effects on herbivory. Insofar as methylation states of MSAP markers influential on herbivory are transgenerationally heritable, herbivore-driven evolutionary changes at the study population will involve correlated changes in genotypic and epigenotypic distributions. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  6. Social Stairs : taking the Piano Staircase towards long-term behavioral change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.R.; Megens, C.J.P.G.; Hoven, van den E.A.W.H.; Hummels, C.C.M.; Brombacher, A.C.; Berkovsky, S.; Freyne, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the development of Social Stairs, an intelligent musical staircase to change people’s behavior in the long-term to take the stairs in favor of the elevator. Through designing with the Experiential Design Landscape (EDL) method, a design opportunity was found that social

  7. Long-Term Developmental Changes in Children's Lower-Order Big Five Personality Facets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.D. de Haan (Amaranta); S.S.W. de Pauw (Sarah); A.L. van den Akker (Alithe); M. Deković (Maja); P.J. Prinzie (Peter)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstract__Objective:__ This study examined long-term developmental changes in mother-rated lower-order facets of children's Big Five dimensions. __Method:__ Two independent community samples covering early childhood (2-4.5 years; N=365, 39% girls) and middle childhood to the end of middle

  8. Long-term developmental changes in children's lower-order Big Five personality facets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haan, A.D. de; Pauw, S. de; Akker, A.J. van den; Dekovic, M.; Prinzie, P.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: This study examined long-term developmental changes in mother-rated lower-order facets of children's Big Five dimensions. Method: Two independent community samples covering early childhood (2-4.5 years; N = 365, 39% girls) and middle childhood to the end of middle adolescence (6-17 years;

  9. Long-term developmental changes in children’s lower-order big five personality facets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, A.; de Pauw, S.; van den Akker, A.; Deković, M.; Prinzie, P.

    2017-01-01

    Objective This study examined long-term developmental changes in mother-rated lower-order facets of children's Big Five dimensions. Method Two independent community samples covering early childhood (2–4.5 years; N = 365, 39% girls) and middle childhood to the end of middle adolescence (6–17 years;

  10. Long-term developmental changes in children’s lower-order Big Five personality facets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, A.D.; de Pauw, S.; van den Akker, A.L.; Dekovic, M.; Prinzie, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Objective This study examined long-term developmental changes in mother-rated lower-order facets of children's Big Five dimensions. Method Two independent community samples covering early childhood (2–4.5 years; N = 365, 39% girls) and middle childhood to the end of middle adolescence (6–17 years;

  11. How Do You Motivate Long-Term Behavior Change to Prevent Cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    John P. Pierce PhD, a professor in the Department of Family and Preventive Medicine at the University of California, San Diego and Director of Population Science at Moores Cancer Center, presented "How Do You Motivate Long-Term Behavior Change to Prevent Cancer?" 

  12. Long-term changes in organic matter of woodland soils cleared for arable cropping in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zingore, S.; Manyame, C.; Nyamugafata, P.; Giller, K.E.

    2005-01-01

    Subsistence farmers in Africa depend largely on the soil organic matter to sustain crop productivity. Long-term changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen were measured after woodland clearance for smallholder subsistence farming or for commercial farming. The contents of organic carbon and

  13. Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Domnisoru, A.

    2006-01-01

    Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on

  14. Self-guided Change: The most common form of long-term, maintained health behavior change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, F Michler

    2018-01-01

    Millions of people change risky, health-related behaviors and maintain those changes. However, they often take years to change, and their unhealthy behaviors may harm themselves and others and constitute a significant cost to society. A review—similar in nature to a scoping review—was done of the literature related to long-term health behavior change in six areas: alcohol, cocaine and heroin misuse, gambling, smoking, and overeating. Based on the limited research available, reasons for change and strategies for changing and for maintaining change were also reviewed. Fifty years of research clearly indicate that as people age, in the case of alcohol, heroin and cocaine misuse, smoking, and gambling, 80–90 percent moderate or stop their unhealthy behaviors. The one exception is overeating; only 20 percent maintain their weight loss. Most of these changes, when they occur, appear to be the result of self-guided change. More ways to accelerate self-guided, health-related behavior change need to be developed and disseminated. PMID:29375888

  15. Integrated approaches to long-term studies of urban ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nancy B. Grimm; J. Morgan Grove; Steward T.A. Pickett; Charles L. Redman

    2000-01-01

    Urban ecological systems present multiple challenges to ecologists—pervasive human impact and extreme heterogeneity of cities, and the need to integrate social and ecological approaches, concepts, and theory.

  16. Global variation in the long-term seasonal changes observed in ionospheric F region data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Scott

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Long-term variability has previously been observed in the relative magnitude of annual and semi-annual variations in the critical frequency (related to the peak electron concentration of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2. In this paper we investigate the global patterns in such variability by calculating the time varying power ratio of semi-annual to annual components seen in ionospheric foF2 data sequences from 77 ionospheric monitoring stations around the world. The temporal variation in power ratios observed at each station was then correlated with the same parameter calculated from similar epochs for the Slough/Chilton data set (for which there exists the longest continuous sequence of ionospheric data. This technique reveals strong regional variation in the data, which bears a striking similarity to the regional variation observed in long-term changes to the height of the ionospheric F2 layer. We argue that since both the height and peak density of the ionospheric F2 region are influenced by changes to thermospheric circulation and composition, the observed long-term and regional variability can be explained by such changes. In the absence of long-term measurements of thermospheric composition, detailed modelling work is required to investigate these processes.

  17. Long-term monitoring of coastal ecosystems at Las Cruces, Chile: Defining baselines to build ecological literacy in a world of change Monitoreo de largo plazo en el ecosistema marino costero de Las Cruces, Chile: Definiendo líneas base para construir alfabetización ecológica en un mundo que cambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SERGIO A NAVARRETE

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Marine coastal habitats are being increasingly impacted by human activities. In addition, there are dramatic climatic disruptions that could generate important and irreversible shifts in coastal ecosystems. Long-term monitoring plays a fundamental and irreplaceable role to establish general baselines from which we can better address current and future impacts and distinguish between natural and anthropogenic changes and fluctuations. Here we highlight how over 25 years of monitoring the coastal marine ecosystem within the no-take marine protected area of Las Cruces has provided critical information to understand ecological baselines and build the necessary ecological literacy for marine management and conservation. We argue that this understanding can only be gained with simultaneous monitoring of reserves and human-impacted areas, and the development of complementary experimental studies that test alternative hypothesis about driving processes and mechanisms. In this contribution we selected four examples to illustrate long-term temporal fluctuations at all trophic levels including taxa from algae to sea birds. From these examples we draw a few general lessons: a there is co-occurrence of rapid- and slowly- unfolding ecological responses to the exclusion of humans within the same rocky shore community. The sharp differences in the pace at which depleted populations recover is at least partly related to differences in life history (dispersal capabilities of the targeted species. b Long-term monitoring of the supply-side of marine communities is critical to evaluate the potential feedback effects of local changes in abundance into the arrival of new individuals and to correctly evaluate environmental and human-induced perturbations. c Unexpected changes in local population dynamics can occur in “independent” and apparently non-interactive modules of the marine ecosystem, such as roosting sea birds inside the reserve. In addition we discuss

  18. Target-Dependent Structural Changes Accompanying Long-Term Synaptic Facilitation in Aplysia Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glanzman, David L.; Kandel, Eric R.; Schacher, Samuel

    1990-08-01

    The mechanisms underlying structural changes that accompany learning and memory have been difficult to investigate in the intact nervous system. In order to make these changes more accessible for experimental analysis, dissociated cell culture and low-light-level video microscopy were used to examine Aplysia sensory neurons in the presence or absence of their target cells. Repeated applications of serotonin, a facilitating transmitter important in behavioral dishabituation and sensitization, produced growth of the sensory neurons that paralleled the long-term enhancement of synaptic strength. This growth required the presence of the postsynaptic motor neuron. Thus, both the structural changes and the synaptic facilitation of Aplysia sensorimotor synapses accompanying long-term behavioral sensitization can be produced in vitro by applying a single facilitating transmitter repeatedly. These structural changes depend on an interaction of the presynaptic neuron with an appropriate postsynaptic target.

  19. Ecological consequences of human niche construction: Examining long-term anthropogenic shaping of global species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boivin, Nicole L; Zeder, Melinda A; Fuller, Dorian Q; Crowther, Alison; Larson, Greger; Erlandson, Jon M; Denham, Tim; Petraglia, Michael D

    2016-06-07

    The exhibition of increasingly intensive and complex niche construction behaviors through time is a key feature of human evolution, culminating in the advanced capacity for ecosystem engineering exhibited by Homo sapiens A crucial outcome of such behaviors has been the dramatic reshaping of the global biosphere, a transformation whose early origins are increasingly apparent from cumulative archaeological and paleoecological datasets. Such data suggest that, by the Late Pleistocene, humans had begun to engage in activities that have led to alterations in the distributions of a vast array of species across most, if not all, taxonomic groups. Changes to biodiversity have included extinctions, extirpations, and shifts in species composition, diversity, and community structure. We outline key examples of these changes, highlighting findings from the study of new datasets, like ancient DNA (aDNA), stable isotopes, and microfossils, as well as the application of new statistical and computational methods to datasets that have accumulated significantly in recent decades. We focus on four major phases that witnessed broad anthropogenic alterations to biodiversity-the Late Pleistocene global human expansion, the Neolithic spread of agriculture, the era of island colonization, and the emergence of early urbanized societies and commercial networks. Archaeological evidence documents millennia of anthropogenic transformations that have created novel ecosystems around the world. This record has implications for ecological and evolutionary research, conservation strategies, and the maintenance of ecosystem services, pointing to a significant need for broader cross-disciplinary engagement between archaeology and the biological and environmental sciences.

  20. An integrated conceptual framework for long-term social-ecological research

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.L. Collins; S.R. Carpenter; S.M. Swinton; D.E. Orenstein; D.L. Childers; T.L. Gragson; N.B. Grimm; J.M. Grove; S.L. Harlan; J.P. Kaye; A.K. Knapp; G.P. Kofinas; J.J. Magnuson; W.H. McDowell; J.M. Melack; L.A. Ogden; G.P. Robertson; M.D. Smith; A.C. Whitmer

    2010-01-01

    The global reach of human activities affects all natural ecosystems, so that the environment is best viewed as a social-ecological system. Consequently, a more integrative approach to environmental science, one that bridges the biophysical and social domains, is sorely needed. Although models and frameworks for social-ecological systems exist, few are explicitly...

  1. Using long-term ecosystem service and biodiversity data to study the impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change: insights from the global ILTER sites network

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vihervaara, P.; D'Amato, D.; Forsius, M.; Angelstam, P.; Baessler, C.; Balvanera, P.; Boldgiv, B.; Bourgeron, P.; Dick, J.; Kanka, R.; Klotz, S.; Maass, M.; Melecis, V.; Petřík, Petr; Shibata, H.; Tang, J.; Thompson, J.; Zacharias, S.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2013), s. 53-66 ISSN 1877-3435 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7AMB12SK156 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * long-term ecological monitoring * prmanen research plot Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.758, year: 2013

  2. Long-term change of activity of very low-frequency earthquakes in southwest Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, S.; Takeo, A.; Obara, K.; Kato, A.; Maeda, T.; Matsuzawa, T.

    2017-12-01

    On plate interface near seismogenic zone of megathrust earthquakes, various types of slow earthquakes were detected including non-volcanic tremors, slow slip events (SSEs) and very low-frequency earthquakes (VLFEs). VLFEs are classified into deep VLFEs, which occur in the downdip side of the seismogenic zone, and shallow VLFEs, occur in the updip side, i.e. several kilometers in depth in southwest Japan. As a member of slow earthquake family, VLFE activity is expected to be a proxy of inter-plate slipping because VLFEs have the same mechanisms as inter-plate slipping and are detected during Episodic tremor and slip (ETS). However, long-term change of the VLFE seismicity has not been well constrained compared to deep low-frequency tremor. We thus studied long-term changes in the activity of VLFEs in southwest Japan where ETS and long-term SSEs have been most intensive. We used continuous seismograms of F-net broadband seismometers operated by NIED from April 2004 to March 2017. After applying the band-pass filter with a frequency range of 0.02—0.05 Hz, we adopted the matched-filter technique in detecting VLFEs. We prepared templates by calculating synthetic waveforms for each hypocenter grid assuming typical focal mechanisms of VLFEs. The correlation coefficients between templates and continuous F-net seismograms were calculated at each grid every 1s in all components. The grid interval is 0.1 degree for both longitude and latitude. Each VLFE was detected as an event if the average of correlation coefficients exceeds the threshold. We defined the detection threshold as eight times as large as the median absolute deviation of the distribution. At grids in the Bungo channel, where long-term SSEs occurred frequently, the cumulative number of detected VLFEs increases rapidly in 2010 and 2014, which were modulated by stress loading from the long-term SSEs. At inland grids near the Bungo channel, the cumulative number increases steeply every half a year. This stepwise

  3. Climatic Characteristics of the Subtropical Mountainous Cloud Forest at the Yuanyang Lake Long-Term Ecological Research Site, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I-Ling Lai

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To better understand the climatic characteristics in a subtropical mountainous cloud forest at the Yuanyang Lake long-term ecological research site, weather data collected from January 1994 to December 2004 were analyzed in the present study. The obvious seasonal changes in climatic factors were observed at this site. The annual mean air temperature was 12.7°C. The lowest temperature was recorded in February (monthly mean 5.9°C, and the highest one was taken in July (monthly mean 18.1°C. Winter featured light rain with a prolonged occurrence of fog, resulting in a large reduction of radiation. In summer, fog occurred once in the early morning and the other time from afternoon to evening. The latter one was associated with the wind direction changes and usually accompanied with short moderate to heavy convective rain. Consequently the photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD was high in the morning but reduced drastically in the afternoon. Typhoons occurred in the summer had contributed to 37% of the annual rainfall, usually resulting in torrential rain events and sharp increases in the water level of this lake. As a matter of fact, perhumid environment of this site was attributed to abundant rainfall (mean annual precipitation 3396 mm and high frequency (up to 40% of foggy time. Such conditions would reduce the intensity of solar radiation and PPFD. The average annual solar radiation at the site was 2475 MJ m-2, and annual PPFD was 5713 mol m-2. The average degree of reduction of PPFD under foggy condition was up to 88%. Such climatic characteristics are suggested to constrain the growth of plants and play an important role in competition among plant species in this cloud forest. It is considered that the distinct seasonal fluctuation in environmental factors, perhumid and dim light conditions are the most distinguished characteristics of this subtropical mountainous cloud forest ecosystem.

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

    2006-01-01

    Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

  5. Nuclear power: renaissance or relapse? Global climate change and long-term Three Mile Island activists' narratives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culley, Marci R; Angelique, Holly

    2010-06-01

    Community narratives are increasingly important as people move towards an ecologically sustainable society. Global climate change is a multi-faceted problem with multiple stakeholders. The voices of affected communities must be heard as we make decisions of global significance. We document the narratives of long-term anti-nuclear activists near the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear power plant who speak out in the dawn of a nuclear renaissance/relapse. While nuclear power is marketed as a "green" solution to global warming, their narratives reveal three areas for consideration; (1) significant problems with nuclear technology, (2) lessons "not" learned from the TMI disaster, and (3) hopes for a sustainable future. Nuclear waste, untrustworthy officials and economic issues were among the problems cited. Deceptive shaping of public opinion, nuclear illiteracy, and an aging anti-nuclear movement were reasons cited for the lessons not learned. However, many remain optimistic and envision increased participation to create an ecologically-balanced world.

  6. Changes in the skeleton after long-term treatment with retinoids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montag, M.; Reiser, M.; Hamm, H.; Traupe, H.; Vogt, H.J.

    1988-07-01

    The synthetic retinoids, the vitamin-A-derivatives ethretinate and isotretinoin, have substantially enlarged the therapeutic arsenal in dermatology. They are primarily used in severe cases of acne and cornification disorders. In the majority of cases, long-term treatment is necessary. Certain side effects in the skeletal system can occur, e.g., osteoporosis, premature epiphyseal closure, and changes similar to DISH (diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis). We discuss the reports in the literature and our own observations in 31 patients treated at the Westphalian Wilhelms University in Muenster, as well as at the Technical University in Munich. In 3 out of 31 patients treated by retinoids on a long-term basis, skeletal changes were found radiologically as a result of the retinoid medication.

  7. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qijie

    2015-08-01

    The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

  8. Long-term ecological research of glacial lakes in the Bohemian Forest and their catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vrba, Jaroslav; Kopáček, Jiří; Tahovská, K.; Šantrůčková, H.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2015), s. 53-71 ISSN 1211-7420 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : atmospheric acidification * biological recovery * nutrients * soil * water * forest dieback Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  9. Long-term fashion forecast based on the sociological model of cyclic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А V Lebsak-Kleimans

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of social changes coined by classical sociology may be incorporated as the basis for the elaboration of social prognostication models which, in turn, may suitable for fashion forecast applied technologies development. In the framework of the given paper fashion is described as the phenomenon of collective behaviour. The principles of long-term fashion trends forecast are shown to be in line with the concepts of cyclic development.

  10. Long-term correlated change between personality traits and perceived social support in middle adulthood

    OpenAIRE

    Allemand Mathias; Schaffhuser Kathrin; Martin Mike

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated long-term correlated change between personality traits and perceived social support in middle adulthood. Two measurement occasions with an 8-year time interval from the Interdisciplinary Longitudinal Study on Adult Development (ILSE) were used. The sample consisted of 346 middle-aged adults (46-50 years at T1). Four different types of perceived social support were assessed. Personality traits were assessed with the NEO-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). Longitudinal meas...

  11. The use of echosounders for long-term studies of the overwintering ecology of sprat (Sprattus sprattus)

    KAUST Repository

    Solberg, Ingrid

    2013-06-01

    Upward-facing echosounders, were used to study the overwintering ecology of sprat during four winters in a Norwegian fjord. The echosounders provided continuous data at a temporal resolution of seconds and enabled studies of individual swimming behavior of sprat in addition to population behavior. The long-term coverage of several winters enabled us to study how the sprat responded to different environmental conditions, like ice-free waters versus ice covered waters and hypoxic conditions versus well-oxygenated waters. The studies unveiled that the overwintering strategies of the sprat are flexible, varying in accordance with environmental conditions. © 2013 IEEE.

  12. Long-term environmental monitoring for assessment of change: measurement inconsistencies over time and potential solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingsen, Kari E; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Hewitt, Judi E; Thrush, Simon F

    2017-10-30

    The importance of long-term environmental monitoring and research for detecting and understanding changes in ecosystems and human impacts on natural systems is widely acknowledged. Over the last decades, a number of critical components for successful long-term monitoring have been identified. One basic component is quality assurance/quality control protocols to ensure consistency and comparability of data. In Norway, the authorities require environmental monitoring of the impacts of the offshore petroleum industry on the Norwegian continental shelf, and in 1996, a large-scale regional environmental monitoring program was established. As a case study, we used a sub-set of data from this monitoring to explore concepts regarding best practices for long-term environmental monitoring. Specifically, we examined data from physical and chemical sediment samples and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages from 11 stations from six sampling occasions during the period 1996-2011. Despite the established quality assessment and quality control protocols for this monitoring program, we identified several data challenges, such as missing values and outliers, discrepancies in variable and station names, changes in procedures without calibration, and different taxonomic resolution. Furthermore, we show that the use of different laboratories over time makes it difficult to draw conclusions with regard to some of the observed changes. We offer recommendations to facilitate comparison of data over time. We also present a new procedure to handle different taxonomic resolution, so valuable historical data is not discarded. These topics have a broader relevance and application than for our case study.

  13. Radiological features of osteoarticular changes in long-term (15 years) hemodialysis patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orzincolo, C.; Ghedini, M.; Cardona, P.; Bedani, P.L.; Storari, A.; Scutellari, P.N.; Cavallari, L.

    1991-01-01

    Osteoarticular complications, which are characterized by osseous pain, pathologic fractures, and decreased articular mobility, represent one of the mayor problems affecting long-term (over 15 years) hemodialysis patients. These changes seem to have a multifactorial etiology; they include osteomalacia, secondary hyperparathyroidism, and dialysis-related amyloidosis. Ten patients (5 males and 5 females, mean age 55± 7 years) on long-term (over 15 years) hemodialysis were submitted to X-ray examinations of the skull, spine, shoulders, wrists, pelvis, and knees. Serum calcium, phosphorous, parathyroid hormone, alkaline phosphatase, and basal aluminium levels were also calculated. Osteopenia was demonstrated in all patients. Seven of them had alterations due to hyperparathyroidism. Six patients exhibited signs related to dialysis spondyloarthropathy; in 9 cases amyloid lesions, geodes, and erosions were present in wrists, humeral heads, or hips. One patients exhibited osteomalacic changes. Most long-terms dialysis patients presented multifactorial osteoarticular changes due to hyperparathyroidism, osteomalacia and dialysis-related amyloidosis. Clinical sympoms and decreased articular mobility appeared to be due mainly to amyloid osteoarthropathy

  14. Effect of organisational change type and frequency on long-term sickness absence in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstrøm, Vilde H; Kjekshus, Lars Erik

    2015-09-01

    The present study was conducted to investigate how the frequency of structural change and patient care-related change is related to employees' long-term sickness absence. Although a growing body of research is investigating the potentially harmful effects of organisational change on employee health, most studies have focused on single episodes of organisational change and do not differentiate among the types and frequencies of change. National registry data were collected from 2005 and 2007. A total of 34 712 health professionals from 56 hospitals were included (76% nurses, 18% physicians and 6% other health professionals) and the data were analysed using multilevel logistic regression. The research findings reveal a significantly higher probability of long-term sickness absence among employees who experienced more frequent structural changes (OR = 1.03; CI: 1.00-1.06; P changes. A higher frequency of organisational change may lead to more sickness-related absence among employees, with the effect depending on the type of change. These findings highlight the need for managers who are contemplating or are in the process of implementing organisational change to become more aware of the potentially harmful effects of frequent organisational change on employee health. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. The Impact of Long-Term Climate Change on Nitrogen Runoff at the Watershed Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorley, J.; Duffy, C.; Arenas Amado, A.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of agricultural runoff is a major concern for water quality of mid-western streams. This concern is largely due to excessive use of agricultural fertilizer, a major source of nutrients in many Midwestern watersheds. In order to improve water quality in these watersheds, understanding the long-term trends in nutrient concentration and discharge is an important water quality problem. This study attempts to analyze the role of long-term temperature and precipitation on nitrate runoff in an agriculturally dominated watershed in Iowa. The approach attempts to establish the concentration-discharge (C-Q) signature for the watershed using time series analysis, frequency analysis and model simulation. The climate data is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), model GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory Coupled Model 3). The historical water quality data was made available by the IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at the University of Iowa for the clear creek watershed (CCW). The CCW is located in east-central Iowa. The CCW is representative of many Midwestern watersheds with humid-continental climate with predominantly agricultural land use. The study shows how long-term climate changes in temperature and precipitation affects the C-Q dynamics and how a relatively simple approach to data analysis and model projections can be applied to best management practices at the site.

  16. The long-term climate change task of the Hanford permanent isolation barrier development program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program is developing an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed that will function in what is currently a semiarid environment (mean annual precipitation and temperature of 16 cm and 11.8 degrees C, respectively) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task has specific goals of (1) obtaining defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future; (2) developing several test-case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, including both greenhouse warming and cycling into another ice age; and (3) using the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance. Results from the Carp Lake Pollen Coring Project indicate that for the last approximately 100,000 yr the Columbia River Basin's long-term range of mean annual precipitation ranged from 25%--50% below to 28% above modern levels, while temperature has ranged from 7 degrees C--10 degrees C below to 2 degrees C above modern levels. This long record provides confidence that such a range should bracket potential natural climate change even if the earth cycles back into another Ice Age in the next few millennia

  17. Use and Evaluation of FCM as a Tool for Long Term Socio Ecological Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wildenberg, Martin; Bachhofer, Michael; Isak, Kirsten Grovermann Qvist

    2014-01-01

    A halt in loss of biodiversity is an important issue in conservation management across Europe. As landscapes tend to be perceived as a combination of natural and social elements, and people’s values and attitudes, research supporting conservation management is dealing with landscapes as socio-ecological...

  18. Structural change of the economy, technological progress and long-term energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klinge Jacobsen, H.

    2000-01-01

    The material included in the report is a collection of papers dealing with different issues related to the topics included in the title. Some of these papers have already either been published or presented at various conferences. Together with a general introduction, they constitute the author's PhD dissertation. The dissertation includes six papers and two shorter notes on different aspects of structural change of the economy and energy demand. Three different issues related to long-term energy demand are discussed: (1) the importance of technological change and its representation in energy-economy modelling, (2) an integration of two different modelling approaches, and (3) the effect on energy demand of structural changes exemplified by changes in the energy supply sector and in Danish trade patterns. The report highlights a few aspects of the interaction between structural economic changes and energy demand, but it does not intend to cover a wide range of issues related to these topics. In the introductory chapter some discussions and thoughts about issues not covered by the articles are brought forward. The introductory chapter includes an overview of possible relations between longterm energy demand and the economy, technical progress demography, social conditions and politics. The first two papers discuss the importance for projections of long-term energy demand of the way in which technological progress is modelled. These papers focus on energy-economy modelling. A paper dealing with two different approaches to energy demand modelling and the possible integration of these approaches in the Danish case follows next. The integrated Danish model, is then used for analysing different revenue recycling principles in relation to a CO 2 tax. The effect of subsidising biomass use is compared with recycling through corporate tax rates. Then a paper follows describing the structural change of a specific sector, namely the energy supply sector, and the implications for

  19. Intraindividual Variability and Long-Term Changes of Thermal Quantitative Sensory Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krøigård, Thomas; Sothynathan, Isaivani; Sindrup, Søren H

    2015-01-01

    Thermal threshold examinations are widely used in the clinical setting and in studies to assess the function of the peripheral sensory nervous system. Little is known about the variation from one side of the body to the other and the long-term temporal changes and variability. In this study, 134...... and foot. Bilateral stimulations resulted in relative intertrial variations ranging from 19% to 40%. There was no significant temporal change for repeated measures. Analysis of the individual measurements of each subject at baseline and at 26 weeks, however, resulted in relatively large intertrial...

  20. The effect of long-term changes in plant inputs on soil carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, K.; Li, Z.; Torn, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest actively-cycling terrestrial reservoir of C and an integral component of thriving natural and managed ecosystems. C input interventions (e.g., litter removal or organic amendments) are common in managed landscapes and present an important decision for maintaining healthy soils in sustainable agriculture and forestry. Furthermore, climate and land-cover change can also affect the amount of plant C inputs that enter the soil through changes in plant productivity, allocation, and rooting depth. Yet, the processes that dictate the response of SOC to such changes in C inputs are poorly understood and inadequately represented in predictive models. Long-term litter manipulations are an invaluable resource for exploring key controls of SOC storage and validating model representations. Here we explore the response of SOC to long-term changes in plant C inputs across a range of biomes and soil types. We synthesize and analyze data from long-term litter manipulation field experiments, and focus our meta-analysis on changes to total SOC stocks, microbial biomass carbon, and mineral-associated (`protected') carbon pools and explore the relative contribution of above- versus below-ground C inputs. Our cross-site data comparison reveals that divergent SOC responses are observed between forest sites, particularly for treatments that increase C inputs to the soil. We explore trends among key variables (e.g., microbial biomass to SOC ratios) that inform soil C model representations. The assembled dataset is an important benchmark for evaluating process-based hypotheses and validating divergent model formulations.

  1. Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussi, Gianbattista; Janes, Victoria; Whitehead, Paul G; Dadson, Simon J; Holman, Ian P

    2017-07-15

    The combined indirect and direct impacts of land use change and climate change on river water quality were assessed. A land use allocation model was used to evaluate the response of the catchment land use to long-term climatic changes. Its results were used to drive a water quality model and assess the impact of climatic alterations on freshwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the likelihood of such response. The River Thames catchment (UK) was used as a case-study. If land use is considered as static parameter, according to the model results, climate change alone should reduce the average nitrate concentration, although just by a small amount, by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to reduced runoff (and lower export of nitrate from agricultural soils) and increased instream denitrification, and should increase the average phosphorus concentration by 12% by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to a reduction of the effluent dilution capacity of the river flow. However, the results of this study also show that these long-term climatic alterations are likely to lead to a reduction in the arable land in the Thames, replaced by improved grassland, due to a decrease in agriculture profitability in the UK. Taking into account the dynamic co-evolution of land use with climate, the average nitrate concentration is expected to be decreased by around 6% by the 2050s in both the upper and the lower Thames, following the model results, and the average phosphorus concentration increased by 13% in the upper Thames and 5% in the lower Thames. On the long term (2080s), nitrate is expected to decrease by 9% and 8% (upper and lower Thames respectively) and phosphorus not to change in the upper thames and increase by 5% in the lower Thames. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Environmental management: Integrating ecological evaluation, remediation, restoration, natural resource damage assessment and long-term stewardship on contaminated lands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, Joanna

    2008-01-01

    Ecological evaluation is essential for remediation, restoration, and Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA), and forms the basis for many management practices. These include determining status and trends of biological, physical, or chemical/radiological conditions, conducting environmental impact assessments, performing remedial actions should remediation fail, managing ecosystems and wildlife, and assessing the efficacy of remediation, restoration, and long-term stewardship. The objective of this paper is to explore the meanings of these assessments, examine the relationships among them, and suggest methods of integration that will move environmental management forward. While remediation, restoration, and NRDA, among others, are often conducted separately, it is important to integrate them for contaminated land where the risks to ecoreceptors (including humans) can be high, and the potential damage to functioning ecosystems great. Ecological evaluations can range from inventories of local plants and animals, determinations of reproductive success of particular species, levels of contaminants in organisms, kinds and levels of effects, and environmental impact assessments, to very formal ecological risk assessments for a chemical or other stressor. Such evaluations can range from the individual species to populations, communities, ecosystems or the landscape scale. Ecological evaluations serve as the basis for making decisions about the levels and kinds of remediation, the levels and kinds of restoration possible, and the degree and kinds of natural resource injuries that have occurred because of contamination. Many different disciplines are involved in ecological evaluation, including biologists, conservationists, foresters, restoration ecologists, ecological engineers, economists, hydrologist, and geologists. Since ecological evaluation forms the basis for so many different types of environmental management, it seems reasonable to integrate management options

  3. Adaptive Change Detection for Long-Term Machinery Monitoring Using Incremental Sliding-Window

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Teng; Lu, Guo-Liang; Liu, Jie; Yan, Peng

    2017-11-01

    Detection of structural changes from an operational process is a major goal in machine condition monitoring. Existing methods for this purpose are mainly based on retrospective analysis, resulting in a large detection delay that limits their usages in real applications. This paper presents a new adaptive real-time change detection algorithm, an extension of the recent research by combining with an incremental sliding-window strategy, to handle the multi-change detection in long-term monitoring of machine operations. In particular, in the framework, Hilbert space embedding of distribution is used to map the original data into the Re-producing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) for change detection; then, a new adaptive threshold strategy can be developed when making change decision, in which a global factor (used to control the coarse-to-fine level of detection) is introduced to replace the fixed value of threshold. Through experiments on a range of real testing data which was collected from an experimental rotating machinery system, the excellent detection performances of the algorithm for engineering applications were demonstrated. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, the proposed algorithm can be more suitable for long-term machinery condition monitoring without any manual re-calibration, thus is promising in modern industries.

  4. Long-term lesser prairie-chicken nest ecology in response to grassland management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritts, Sarah R.; Grisham, Blake A.; Haukos, David A.; Boal, Clint W.; Patten, Michael; Wolfe, Don H.; Dixon, Charles; Cox, Robert D.; Heck, Willard R.

    2016-01-01

    Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and

  5. Long-term WWER-440 dynamics in cyclic power output changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petruzela, I.

    1989-01-01

    Xenon poisoning is one of the main factors limiting the operation of a nuclear power plant with a WWER-440 reactor in the variable load mode, when long-term dynamics applies to cyclic power output changes. An analysis of the xenon poisoning linearized transfer shows that a phase shift of 180deg takes place between the summed-up reactivity change due to a power change and the reactivity change due to xenon poisoning, this for a sine-wave power change with a period of 24 hours. Thus, the requirements are minimized for the change in reactivity of the control elements, and the maximum value can be achieved of released reactivity that can be utilized before the end of the campaign. (B.S.). 6 figs., 4 tabs., 9 refs

  6. Long-term oil contamination alters the molecular ecological networks of soil microbial functional genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuting eLiang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available With knowledge on microbial composition and diversity, investigation of within-community interactions is a further step to elucidate microbial ecological functions, such as the biodegradation of hazardous contaminants. In this work, microbial functional molecular ecological networks were studied in both contaminated and uncontaminated soils to determine the possible influences of oil contamination on microbial interactions and potential functions. Soil samples were obtained from an oil-exploring site located in South China, and the microbial functional genes were analyzed with GeoChip, a high-throughput functional microarray. By building random networks based on null model, we demonstrated that overall network structures and properties were significantly different between contaminated and uncontaminated soils (P < 0.001. Network connectivity, module numbers, and modularity were all reduced with contamination. Moreover, the topological roles of the genes (module hub and connectors were altered with oil contamination. Subnetworks of genes involved in alkane and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon degradation were also constructed. Negative co-occurrence patterns prevailed among functional genes, thereby indicating probable competition relationships. The potential keystone genes, defined as either hubs or genes with highest connectivities in the network, were further identified. The network constructed in this study predicted the potential effects of anthropogenic contamination on microbial community co-occurrence interactions.

  7. New Zealand: long-term care in a decade of change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashton, T

    2000-01-01

    Long-term care in New Zealand incorporates a mix of public and private funding and provision. After a decade of structural change, the purchasing of almost all publicly funded health and social care is now the responsibility of one central agency. Services for older persons are poorly integrated, and there are problems of access to and quality of some services. Efforts are being made to address these problems. The challenge now is to ensure that this groundwork is not lost amid the turmoil of yet another round of restructuring by an enthusiastic, newly elected government.

  8. Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

    2016-02-01

    Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

  9. Calcium regulation in long-term changes of neuronal excitability in the hippocampal formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mody, I.

    1985-01-01

    The regulation of calcium (Ca/sup 2 +/) was examined during long-term changes of neuronal excitability in the mammalian CNS. The preparations under investigation included the kindling model of epilepsy, a genetic form of epilepsy and long-term potentiation (LTP) of neuronal activity. The study also includes a discussion of the possible roles of a neuron-specific calcium-binding protein (CaBP). The findings are summarized as follows: (1) CaBP was found to have an unequal distribution in various cortical areas of the rat with higher levels in ventral structures. (2) The decline in CaBP was correlated to the number of evoked afterdischarges (AD's) during kindling-induced epilepsy. (3) Marked changes in CaBP levels were also found in the brains of the epileptic strain of mice (El). The induction of seizures further decreased the levels of CaBP in the El mice, indicating a possible genetic impairment of neuronal Ca/sup 2 +/ homeostasis in the El strain. (4) The levels of total hippocampal Ca/sup 2 +/ and Zn/sup 2 +/ were measured by atomic absorption spectrophotometry in control and commissural-kindled animals. (5) To measure Ca/sup 2 +/-homeostasis, the kinetic analysis of /sup 45/Ca uptake curves was undertaken in the in vitro hippocampus. (6) The kinetic analysis of /sup 45/Ca uptake curves revealed that Ca/sup 2 +/-regulation of the hippocampus is impaired following amygdala- and commissural kindling. (7). A novel form of long-term potentiation (LTP) of neuronal activity in the CA1 region of the hippocampus is described. The findings raise the possibility that the Ca/sup 2 +/ necessary for induction of LTP may be derived from an intraneuronal storage site.

  10. Long-Term Soil Experiments: A Key to Managing Earth's Rapidly Changing Critical Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, D., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    In a few decades, managers of Earth's Critical Zones (biota, humans, land, and water) will be challenged to double food and fiber production and diminish adverse effects of management on the wider environment. To meet these challenges, an array of scientific approaches is being used to increase understanding of Critical Zone functioning and evolution, and one amongst these approaches needs to be long-term soil field studies to move us beyond black boxing the belowground Critical Zone, i.e., to further understanding of processes driving changes in the soil environment. Long-term soil experiments (LTSEs) provide direct observations of soil change and functioning across time scales of decades, data critical for biological, biogeochemical, and environmental assessments of sustainability; for predictions of soil fertility, productivity, and soil-environment interactions; and for developing models at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Unfortunately, LTSEs globally are not in a good state, and they take years to mature, are vulnerable to loss, and even today remain to be fully inventoried. Of the 250 LTSEs in a web-based network, results demonstrate that soils and belowground Critical Zones are highly dynamic and responsive to human management. The objective of this study is to review the contemporary state of LTSEs and consider how they contribute to three open questions: (1) can soils sustain a doubling of food production in the coming decades without further impinging on the wider environment, (2) how do soils interact with the global C cycle, and (3) how can soil management establish greater control over nutrient cycling. While LTSEs produce significant data and perspectives for all three questions, there is on-going need and opportunity for reviews of the long-term soil-research base, for establishment of an efficiently run network of LTSEs aimed at sustainability and improving management control over C and nutrient cycling, and for research teams that

  11. Change of nuclear administrative system and long-term program for nuclear energy in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, S. W.; Yang, M. H.; Jeong, H. S.

    2001-01-01

    Japanese new governmental adminstrative system was restructured and became in operation from January 1, 2001 including newly establishment of the Ministry of Cabinet. Accordingly, Japanese nuclear administrative system were also changed significantly, in order to reflect the changing policy environment and response to them more efficiently in the use and development of nuclear energy. Atomic Energy Commission, Nuclear Safety Commission administrated by Science and Technology Agency in the past, were moved to the Ministry of Cabinet, and Integrated Science and Technology Council was also newly established under the Ministry of Cabinet. And Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry(METI) is in charge of nuclear energy policy and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology(MEXT) is in charge of nuclear academic science consequently. At the same time, the revision work of 'Long-term Program for Research, Development and Utilization of Nuclear of Japan' established in 1994, has been carried out from 1999 in order to set up the long term based national nuclear policy towards the 21st century, and finally the results were open to the public in November 2000. Major changes of nuclear policy of Japan the will be good references in the establishing future national nuclear policy for the use and development of nuclear energy

  12. Lock-in and change: Distributed generation in Denmark in a long-term perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vleuten, Erik van der; Raven, Rob

    2006-01-01

    There is a renewed attention for distributed generation (DG) in European electricity sectors, but implementing DG is often problematic. This article studies the current relative success of DG in Denmark. We take into account not only recent drivers of change such as energy policy and green activism, but also long-term stability and change in the electricity supply sector. In particular we analyse the lock-in on centralized electricity supply, that still frustrates DG development elsewhere. We discuss three successive national electricity regimes, analysing regime lock-in and change in terms of technologies, actors, institutions and the position of DG. Our analysis shows that Danish energy policy as well as innovative activity by key actors indeed were crucial to the recent DG revival in Denmark. On the other hand, our long-term perspective shows that Danish energy policy and actor strategies were tuned to specifically Danish opportunities and barriers created during earlier regimes. These include experience with wind turbines and CHP as well as urban municipal and rural cooperative involvement. Copying the Danish energy policy model to other countries, regardless of national specific opportunities and barriers, will therefore not guarantee a similar outcome

  13. What are driving the long-term Caspian Sea level change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.

    2017-12-01

    Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015, and show that PER (P-E+R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop ( -6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of +12.38 and -6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.

  14. Long term mineralogical changes in salt formations due to water and brine interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, H.J.; Brewitz, W.

    1996-01-01

    Four very common long term mineralogical changes in salt formations are discussed in the view of the safety considerations for underground repositories. Two of these processes, the 'Hartsalz' and 'Carnallite' dissolution were studied in two scale in situ experiments. The results are presented and compared with the results of the geochemical modelling with the computer code EQ3/6. Furthermore the reactions leading to the formation of the gypsum cap rock on the top of the Zechstein salt formations and to the polyhalitization of anhydrite are discussed. Geological field observations and mineral assemblages agree well with the results of the geochemical modelling employing the Pitzer formalism along with the Harvie, Moller and Weare database. We conclude that once the mechanisms of the chemical reactions are well understood it becomes possible to evaluate realistically whether such processes, when encountered in the repository, are still active or whether they are finished. It also becomes possible to estimate the volume changes associated with the reactions and thus the impact of these reactions on the integrity and the geomechanical stability of the salt formation. The intimate knowledge of the reaction mechanisms of the short and long term changes in the mineralogical assemblages and the associated brine chemistry is a first prerequisite for the correct evaluation of the origin of brines. Thus, it is essential for the correct assessment of the hazards which brine inflows may pose for the safety of a repository in salt formations. (authors). 8 refs., 14 figs., 8 tabs

  15. Long-term (1993-2013) changes in macrozooplankton off the Western Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Deborah K.; Ruck, Kate E.; Gleiber, Miram R.; Garzio, Lori M.; Cope, Joseph S.; Bernard, Kim S.; Stammerjohn, Sharon E.; Schofield, Oscar M. E.; Quetin, Langdon B.; Ross, Robin M.

    2015-07-01

    The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and where a high apex predator biomass is supported in large part by macrozooplankton. We examined trends in summer (January-February) abundance of major taxa of macrozooplankton along the WAP over two decades (1993-2013) and their relationship with environmental parameters (sea ice, atmospheric climate indices, sea surface temperature, and phytoplankton biomass and productivity). Macrozooplankton were collected from the top 120 m of the water column in a mid-Peninsula study region divided into latitudinal (North, South, and Far South) and cross-shelf (coastal, shelf, slope) sub-regions. Trends for krill species included a 5-year cycle in abundance peaks (positive anomalies) for Euphausia superba, but no directional long-term trend, and an increase in Thysanoessa macrura in the North; variability in both species was strongly influenced by primary production 2-years prior. E. crystallorophias abundance was best explained by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), and was more abundant in higher ice conditions. The salp Salpa thompsoni and thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina cycled between negative and positive anomalies in the North, but showed increasing positive anomalies in the South over time. Variation in salp and pteropod abundance was best explained by SAM and the MEI, respectively, and both species were more abundant in lower ice conditions. There was a long-term increase in some carnivorous gelatinous zooplankton (polychaete worm Tomopteris spp.) and amphipods. Abundance of Pseudosagitta spp. chaetognaths was closely related to SAM, with higher abundance tied to lower ice conditions. Long-term changes and sub-decadal cycles of WAP macrozooplankton community composition may affect energy transfer to higher trophic levels, and alter biogeochemical cycling in this seasonally productive and sensitive polar ecosystem.

  16. Automatic Threshold Determination for a Local Approach of Change Detection in Long-Term Signal Recordings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Hewson

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available CUSUM (cumulative sum is a well-known method that can be used to detect changes in a signal when the parameters of this signal are known. This paper presents an adaptation of the CUSUM-based change detection algorithms to long-term signal recordings where the various hypotheses contained in the signal are unknown. The starting point of the work was the dynamic cumulative sum (DCS algorithm, previously developed for application to long-term electromyography (EMG recordings. DCS has been improved in two ways. The first was a new procedure to estimate the distribution parameters to ensure the respect of the detectability property. The second was the definition of two separate, automatically determined thresholds. One of them (lower threshold acted to stop the estimation process, the other one (upper threshold was applied to the detection function. The automatic determination of the thresholds was based on the Kullback-Leibler distance which gives information about the distance between the detected segments (events. Tests on simulated data demonstrated the efficiency of these improvements of the DCS algorithm.

  17. Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loaiciga, Hugo A

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

  18. Transformative art: art as means for long-term neurocognitive change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preminger, Son

    2012-01-01

    Every artwork leads to a unique experience by the observer or participant, may it be sensory, emotional, cognitive, interactive, or spiritual experience. At the neurobiological level, such experiences are manifested as activation of the corresponding neural networks. Neuroscience has demonstrated that experience, in particular repeated experience, can cause a long-term change in the involved brain circuits (experience-dependent plasticity). This review will discuss the molding and transformative aspect of arts, examining how repeated and on-going experience of arts may alter cognitive, emotional, and behavioral patterns as well as their underlying neural circuits. The application of this approach to cognitive training and neuropsychological rehabilitation methods will be addressed as well. In addition, it will be suggested that this approach to art, as a long-term transformative medium, may lead to a novel viewpoint on art and a different approach to its creation. Artists can design artworks that aspire to form, in addition to one-shot influencing experience, on-going experiences which gradually create a lasting change, possibly improving audiences' neuropsychological functions.

  19. Transformative Art:Art as Means for Long-term Neurocognitive Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Son ePreminger

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Every artwork leads to a unique experience by the observer or participant, may it be sensory, emotional, cognitive, interactive or spiritual experience. At the neurobiological level, such experiences are manifested as activation of the corresponding neural networks. Neuroscience has demonstrated that experience, in particular repeated experience, can cause a long-term change in the involved brain circuits (experience-dependent plasticity. This review will discuss the molding and transformative aspect of arts, examining how repeated and on-going experience of arts may alter cognitive, emotional and behavioral patterns as well as their underlying neural circuits. The application of this approach to cognitive training and neuropsychological rehabilitation methods will be addressed as well. In addition, it will be suggested that this approach to art, as long-term transformative, may lead to a novel viewpoint on art and a different approach to its creation. Artists can design artworks that aspire to form, in addition to one-shot influencing experience, on-going experiences which gradually create a lasting change, possibly improving audiences' neuropsychological functions.

  20. Join the Revolution: How Montessori for Aging and Dementia can Change Long-Term Care Culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourgeois, Michelle S; Brush, Jennifer; Elliot, Gail; Kelly, Anne

    2015-08-01

    Efforts to improve the quality of life of persons with dementia in long-term care through the implementation of various approaches to person-centered care have been underway for the past two decades. Studies have yielded conflicting reports evaluating the evidence for these approaches. The purpose of this article is to outline the findings of several systematic reviews of this literature, highlighting the areas of improvement needs, and to describe a new person-centered care model, DementiAbility Methods: The Montessori Way. This model focuses on the abilities, needs, interests, and strengths of the person and creating worthwhile and meaningful roles, routines, and activities for the person within a supportive physical environment. This is accomplished through gaining the commitment of the facility's leaders, training staff, and monitoring program implementation. The potential for a culture change in long-term care environments is dependent on the development and rigorous evaluation of person-centered care approaches. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  1. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amnon eYacoby

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK. We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or one day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information one day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories.

  2. Risk factors and long-term changes of non-arteritis anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying-Xin Cui

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available AIM:To investigate the risk factors and long-term changes of non-arteritis anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy(NAION. METHODS:Three hundred and sixty cases of patients with NAION in our hospital from January 2010 to Juny 2015 were used as patients group and another 400 people undergoing health examination were used as control group. The clinical data was collected. Optical coherence tomography(OCTwas performed. RESULTS:There were significant difference on gender, history of diabetes or hypertension, arteriosclerosis history, disc area, cup area, rim area, cup/disc area ratio, horizontal cup-disc ratio, vertical cup-disc ratio, FBG and TG of two groups(PPP>0.05. CONCLUSION:Male, with diabetes, history of hypertension, arteriosclerosis history, disc area, cup area, rim area, cup/disc area ratio, horizontal cup-disc ratio, vertical cup-disc ratio, FBG and TG are independent risk factors of NAION. Long-term damage of RNFL may not aggravate.

  3. Binge-pattern alcohol exposure during puberty induces long-term changes in HPA axis reactivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena M Przybycien-Szymanska

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Adolescence is a dynamic and important period of brain development however, little is known about the long-term neurobiological consequences of alcohol consumption during puberty. Our previous studies showed that binge-pattern ethanol (EtOH treatment during pubertal development negatively dysregulated the responsiveness of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA axis, as manifested by alterations in corticotrophin-releasing hormone (CRH, arginine vasopressin (AVP, and corticosterone (CORT during this time period. Thus, the primary goal of this study was to determine whether these observed changes in important central regulators of the stress response were permanent or transient. In this study, juvenile male Wistar rats were treated with a binge-pattern EtOH treatment paradigm or saline alone for 8 days. The animals were left undisturbed until adulthood when they received a second round of treatments consisting of saline alone, a single dose of EtOH, or a second binge-pattern treatment paradigm. The results showed that pubertal binge-pattern EtOH exposure induced striking long-lasting alterations of many HPA axis parameters. Overall, our data provide strong evidence that binge-pattern EtOH exposure during pubertal maturation has long-term detrimental effects for the healthy development of the HPA axis.

  4. Facilitating long-term changes in student approaches to learning science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchwitz, Brian J; Beyer, Catharine H; Peterson, Jon E; Pitre, Emile; Lalic, Nevena; Sampson, Paul D; Wakimoto, Barbara T

    2012-01-01

    Undergraduates entering science curricula differ greatly in individual starting points and learning needs. The fast pace, high enrollment, and high stakes of introductory science courses, however, limit students' opportunities to self-assess and modify learning strategies. The University of Washington's Biology Fellows Program (BFP) intervenes through a 20-session, premajors course that introduces students to the rigor expected of bioscience majors and assists their development as science learners. This study uses quantitative and qualitative approaches to assess whether the 2007-2009 BFP achieved its desired short- and long-term impacts on student learning. Adjusting for differences in students' high school grade point average and Scholastic Aptitude Test scores, we found that participation in the BFP was associated with higher grades in two subsequent gateway biology courses, across multiple quarters and instructors. Two to 4 yr after participating in the program, students attributed changes in how they approached learning science to BFP participation. They reported having learned to "think like a scientist" and to value active-learning strategies and learning communities. In addition, they reported having developed a sense of belonging in bioscience communities. The achievement of long-term impacts for a short-term instructional investment suggests a practical means to prepare diverse students for the rigors of science curricula.

  5. Long-Term Changes in Pain Sensitivity in an Animal Model of Social Anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Berry

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Animal models with an eco-ethological relevance can help in identifying novel and reliable stress-related markers. To this end, 3-month-old C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to social defeat (SD stress for 10 days as this stressor shows good face and predictive validity for several models of human affective disorders including depression, social phobia and post-traumatic stress disorder. Social avoidance and pain threshold were assessed 24 h and 4 weeks after the end of SD stress, while corticosterone was assayed at the beginning and at the end of the stressful procedure (days 1 and 10. SD subjects were characterized by increased corticosterone levels (30 min following stress exposure, increased latency to approach the social target in the short-term as well as increased emotionality in the long-term. Moreover, an increase in nociceptive threshold (stress-induced analgesia was found both in the short-term and 4 weeks after the end of stress. These data indicate that the SD paradigm is able to induce emotional changes associated with a stressful/traumatic event. In addition, they indicate that variations in the nociceptive threshold might represent a physiological marker of both short- and long-term effects of stress.

  6. Assessment of long-term channel changes in the Mekong River using remote sensing and a channel-evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazawa, N.

    2011-12-01

    River-channel changes are a key factor affecting physical, ecological and management issues in the fluvial environment. In this study, long-term channel changes in the Mekong River were assessed using remote sensing and a channel-evolution model. A channel-evolution model for calculating long-term channel changes of a measndering river was developed using a previous fluid-dynamic model [Zolezzi and Seminara, 2001], and was applied in order to quantify channel changes of two meandering reaches in the Mekong River. Quite few attempts have been made so far to combine remote sensing observation of meandering planform change with the application of channel evolution models within relatively small-scale gravel-bed systems in humid temperate regions. The novel point of the present work is to link state-of-art meandering planform evolution model with observed morphological changes within large-scale sand-bed rivers with higher bank height in tropical monsoonal climate regions, which are the highly dynamic system, and assess the performance. Unstable extents of the reaches could be historically identified using remote-sensing technique. The instability caused i) bank erosion and accretion of meander bends and ii) movement or development of bars and changes in the flow around the bars. The remote sensing measurements indicate that maximum erosion occurred downstream of the maximum curvature of the river-center line in both reaches. The model simulations indicates that under the mean annual peak discharge the maximum of excess longitudinal velocity near the banks occurs downstream of the maximum curvature in both reaches. The channel migration coefficients of the reaches were calibrated by comparing remote-sensing measurements and model simulations. The diffrence in the migration coefficients between both reaches depends on the diffrence in bank height rather than the geotechnical properties of floodplain sediments. Possible eroded floodplain areas and accreted floodplain

  7. Drivers for successful long-term lifestyle change, the role of e-health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Carl Joakim; Clemensen, Jane; Nielsen, Jesper Bo

    2018-01-01

    Objectives Assisting patients in lifestyle change using collaborative e-health tools can be an efficient treatment for non-communicable diseases like diabetes, cardiovascular disease and chronic obstructive lung disease that are caused or aggravated by unhealthy living in the form of unhealthy diet......, physical inactivity or tobacco smoking. In a prospective pilot study, we tested an online collaborative e-health tool in general practice. The aim of this study was to identify drivers of importance for long-term personal lifestyle changes from a patient perspective when using a collaborative e-health tool......, including the support of peers and healthcare professionals. Setting General practice clinics in the Region of Southern Denmark. Participants 10 overweight patients who had previously successfully used a hybrid online collaborative e-health tool with both face-to-face and online consultations to lose weight...

  8. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. S. Lord

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs, long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term continuous projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature – SAT, comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years (by modelling SAT and precipitation. A range of CO2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next

  9. Long-term habitat changes in a protected area: Implications for herpetofauna habitat management and restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markle, Chantel E; Chow-Fraser, Gillian; Chow-Fraser, Patricia

    2018-01-01

    Point Pelee National Park, located at the southern-most tip of Canada's mainland, historically supported a large number of herpetofauna species; however, despite nearly a century of protection, six snake and five amphibian species have disappeared, and remaining species-at-risk populations are thought to be in decline. We hypothesized that long-term changes in availability and distribution of critical habitat types may have contributed to the disappearance of herpetofauna. To track habitat changes we used aerial image data spanning 85 years (1931-2015) and manually digitized and classified image data using a standardized framework. Change-detection analyses were used to evaluate the relative importance of proportionate loss and fragmentation of 17 habitat types. Marsh habitat diversity and aquatic connectivity has declined since 1931. The marsh matrix transitioned from a graminoid and forb shallow marsh interspersed with water to a cattail dominated marsh, altering critical breeding, foraging, and overwintering habitat. Reduced diversity of marsh habitats appears to be linked to the expansion of invasive Phragmites australis, which invaded prior to 2000. Loss of open habitats such as savanna and meadow has reduced availability of high quality thermoregulation habitat for reptiles. Restoration of the northwestern region and tip of Point Pelee National Park to a mixed landscape of shallow wetlands (cattail, graminoid, forb, open water) and eradication of dense Phragmites stands should improve habitat diversity. Our results suggest that long-term landscape changes resulting from habitat succession and invasive species can negatively affect habitat suitability for herpetofauna and protection of land alone does not necessarily equate to protection of sensitive herpetofauna.

  10. Long-term habitat changes in a protected area: Implications for herpetofauna habitat management and restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chantel E Markle

    Full Text Available Point Pelee National Park, located at the southern-most tip of Canada's mainland, historically supported a large number of herpetofauna species; however, despite nearly a century of protection, six snake and five amphibian species have disappeared, and remaining species-at-risk populations are thought to be in decline. We hypothesized that long-term changes in availability and distribution of critical habitat types may have contributed to the disappearance of herpetofauna. To track habitat changes we used aerial image data spanning 85 years (1931-2015 and manually digitized and classified image data using a standardized framework. Change-detection analyses were used to evaluate the relative importance of proportionate loss and fragmentation of 17 habitat types. Marsh habitat diversity and aquatic connectivity has declined since 1931. The marsh matrix transitioned from a graminoid and forb shallow marsh interspersed with water to a cattail dominated marsh, altering critical breeding, foraging, and overwintering habitat. Reduced diversity of marsh habitats appears to be linked to the expansion of invasive Phragmites australis, which invaded prior to 2000. Loss of open habitats such as savanna and meadow has reduced availability of high quality thermoregulation habitat for reptiles. Restoration of the northwestern region and tip of Point Pelee National Park to a mixed landscape of shallow wetlands (cattail, graminoid, forb, open water and eradication of dense Phragmites stands should improve habitat diversity. Our results suggest that long-term landscape changes resulting from habitat succession and invasive species can negatively affect habitat suitability for herpetofauna and protection of land alone does not necessarily equate to protection of sensitive herpetofauna.

  11. Empirical test of the influence of global warming and forest disturbance on ant fauna at the Gwangneung Forest Long Term Ecological Research site, South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Sung Kwon

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the effects of forest disturbance and climate change on the ant fauna at the Long Term Ecological Research site in Gwangneung Forest, Korea in 2003 and 2012. After forest disturbance, the occurrence and abundance of ants belonging to the functional groups of forest ground forager and soil and litter dweller are predicted to decrease, while the occurrence and abundance of ants belonging to the open land forager and forest vegetation forager functional groups are predicted to increase. In terms of the effects of climate change, if the optimum temperature of the ants is lower than the annual average temperature in the survey area, the occurrence and abundance of the ants are predicted to decrease and vice versa. Ant surveys were carried out using pitfall traps. Changes in the dominant species, occurrence, and abundance mostly corresponded to the predictions for forest disturbance, but did not match the prediction for an increase in temperature.

  12. Surface ozone in China: present-day distribution and long-term changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Xu, W.

    2017-12-01

    Reliable knowledge of spatio-temporal variations of surface ozone is highly needed to assess the impacts of ozone on human health, ecosystem and climate. Although regional distributions and trends of surface ozone in European and North American countries have been well characterized, little is known about the variability of surface ozone in many other countries, including China, where emissions of ozone precursors have been changing rapidly in recent decades. Here we present the first comprehensive description of present-day (2013-2017) distribution and long-term changes of surface ozone in mainland China. Recent ozone measurements from China's air quality monitoring network (AQMN) are analyzed to show present-day distributions of a few ozone exposure metrics for urban environment. Long-term measurements of ozone at six background sites, a rural site and an urban are used to study the trends of ozone in background, rural and urban air, respectively. The average levels of ozone at the AQMN sites (mainly urban) are close to those found at many European and North American sites. However, ozone at most of the sites shows very large diurnal and seasonal variations so that ozone nonattainment can occur in many cities, particularly those in the North China Plain (NCP), the south of Northeast China (NEC), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Pearl River Delta (PRD), and the Sichuan Basin-Chongqing region (SCB). In all these regions, particularly in the NCP, the maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentration can significantly exceed the national limit (75 ppb). High annual sum of ozone means over 35 ppb (SOMO35) exist mainly in the NCP, NEC and YRD, with regional averages over 4000 ppb·d. Surface ozone has significantly increased at Waliguan (a baseline site in western China) and Shangdianzi (a background site in the NCP), and decreased in winter and spring at Longfengshan (a background site in Northeast China). No clear trend can be derived from long-term measurements

  13. Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

    2015-04-01

    Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further

  14. The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

    1999-01-01

    The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

  15. Hair and Nail Changes During Long-term Therapy With Ibrutinib for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitar, Carole; Farooqui, Mohammed Z H; Valdez, Janet; Saba, Nakhle S; Soto, Susan; Bray, Amanda; Marti, Gerald; Wiestner, Adrian; Cowen, Edward W

    2016-06-01

    Ibrutinib, a Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is a new targeted agent approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), mantle cell lymphoma, and Waldenström macroglobulinemia. Ibrutinib is overall well tolerated but long-term treatment is required until disease progression or intolerable toxic effects occur. Little is known regarding its cutaneous adverse effects. To describe the hair and nail manifestations associated with the long-term use of ibrutinib for the treatment of CLL. Prospective study of 66 patients with CLL enrolled in a single-arm phase 2 clinical trial of ibrutinib for CLL between March 2014 and October 2015 at the National Institutes of Health. The primary outcome, nail and hair changes associated with ibrutinib therapy, was assessed by an 11-question survey. In addition, the severity of nail changes was determined from a 0 to 3 rating scale for both onychoschizia and onychorrhexis. Among 66 patients (43 men and 23 women with ages ranging from 55 to 85 years), 44 (67%) reported brittle fingernails at a median of 6.5 (95% CI, 6-12) months after starting ibrutinib therapy. Fifteen patients (23%) developed brittle toenails after a median of 9 (95% CI, 6-15) months of ibrutinib therapy. Textural hair changes were reported in 17 patients (26%), at a median of 9 (95% CI, 6-12) months of ibrutinib treatment. Hair and nail abnormalities are commonly associated with ibrutinib and appear several months after initiating therapy. Ibrutinib inhibits Bruton tyrosine kinase by covalently binding to cysteine 481. Whether ibrutinib affects the hair and nails by binding and altering cysteine-rich proteins of hair and nails or by means of another mechanism remains unknown. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01500733.

  16. Long-Term Developmental Changes in Children's Lower-Order Big Five Personality Facets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Haan, Amaranta; De Pauw, Sarah; van den Akker, Alithe; Deković, Maja; Prinzie, Peter

    2017-10-01

    This study examined long-term developmental changes in mother-rated lower-order facets of children's Big Five dimensions. Two independent community samples covering early childhood (2-4.5 years; N = 365, 39% girls) and middle childhood to the end of middle adolescence (6-17 years; N = 579, 50% girls) were used. All children had the Belgian nationality. Developmental changes were examined using cohort-sequential latent growth modeling on the 18 facets of the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children. In early childhood, changes were mostly similar across child gender. Between 2 and 4.5 years, several facets showed mean-level stability; others changed in the direction of less Extraversion and Emotional Stability, and more Benevolence and Imagination. The lower-order facets of Conscientiousness showed opposite changes. Gender differences became more apparent from middle childhood onward for facets of all dimensions except Imagination, for which no gender differences were found. Between 6 and 17 years, same-dimension facets showed different shapes of growth. Facets that changed linearly changed mostly in the direction of less Extraversion, Benevolence, Conscientiousness, Emotional Stability, and Imagination. Changes in facets for which nonlinear growth was found generally moved in direction or magnitude during developmental transitions. This study provides comprehensive, fine-grained knowledge about personality development during the first two decades of life. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Initial Analyses of Change Detection Capabilities and Data Redundancies in the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lubinski, Kenneth

    2001-01-01

    Evaluations of Long Term Resource Monitoring Program sampling designs for water quality, fish, aquatic vegetation, and macroinvertebrates were initiated in 1999 by analyzing data collected since 1992...

  18. Breaks in MODIS time series portend vegetation change: verification using long-term data in an arid grassland ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, Dawn M; Maynard, Jonathan J; Karl, Jason W; Peters, Debra C

    2017-07-01

    Frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are forecast to increase in the 21st century. Predicting how managed ecosystems may respond to climatic extremes is intensified by uncertainty associated with knowing when, where, and how long effects of extreme events will be manifest in an ecosystem. In water-limited ecosystems with high inter-annual variability in rainfall, it is important to be able to distinguish responses that result from seasonal fluctuations in rainfall from long-term directional increases or decreases in precipitation. A tool that successfully distinguishes seasonal from directional biomass responses would allow land managers to make informed decisions about prioritizing mitigation strategies, allocating human resource monitoring efforts, and mobilizing resources to withstand extreme climatic events. We leveraged long-term observations (2000-2013) of quadrat-level plant biomass at multiple locations across a semiarid landscape in southern New Mexico to verify the use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series derived from 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data as a proxy for changes in aboveground productivity. This period encompassed years of sustained drought (2000-2003) and record-breaking high rainfall (2006 and 2008) followed by subsequent drought years (2011 through 2013) that resulted in a restructuring of plant community composition in some locations. Our objective was to decompose vegetation patterns derived from MODIS NDVI over this period into contributions from (1) the long-term trend, (2) seasonal cycle, and (3) unexplained variance using the Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) model. BFAST breakpoints in NDVI trend and seasonal components were verified with field-estimated biomass at 15 sites that differed in species richness, vegetation cover, and soil properties. We found that 34 of 45 breaks in NDVI trend reflected large changes in mean biomass and 16 of 19 seasonal

  19. Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

    2012-03-01

    Numerous studies indicate that the northern high latitudes are experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental change, including an increase in air temperatures (e.g. Serreze and Francis 2006), reduction of snow cover (e.g. Brown and Robinson 2011), ecosystem transformations and land cover changes (e.g. Callaghan et al 2011). Many of the potential environmental impacts of global warming in the high latitudes are associated with frozen ground, which occupies about 55% of the unglaciated land area in the northern hemisphere and consists of both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground. Frozen soils have a tremendous impact on hydrologic, climatic and biologic systems. Periodic freezing and thawing promote changes in soil structure, affect the surface and subsurface water cycle, and regulate the availability of nutrients in the soil for plants and biota that depend upon them. Freezing and thawing cycles can affect the decomposition of organic substances in the soil and greenhouse gas exchange between the atmosphere and land surface. Significant efforts have been devoted to permafrost-related studies, including the establishment of standardized observations (e.g. Romanovsky et al 2010, Shiklomanov et al 2008), modeling (e.g. Riseborough et al 2008), and climate-related feedback processes (e.g. Schuur et al 2008). Despite its vast extent and importance, seasonally frozen ground has received much less attention. One of the major obstacles in assessing changes in seasonally frozen ground is the lack of long-term data. In general, observations on soil temperature and freeze propagation are available for a limited area and involve a relatively short time period, precluding assessment of long-term, climate-driven change. A few known exceptions include shallow soil temperature and freeze/thaw depth observations conducted as part of the standard hydrometeorological monitoring system in China (e.g. Zhao et al 2004) and the Soviet Union/Russia (e.g. Gilichinsky et al 2000

  20. Nonparametric Monitoring for Geotechnical Structures Subject to Long-Term Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hae-Bum Yun

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonparametric, data-driven methodology of monitoring for geotechnical structures subject to long-term environmental change is discussed. Avoiding physical assumptions or excessive simplification of the monitored structures, the nonparametric monitoring methodology presented in this paper provides reliable performance-related information particularly when the collection of sensor data is limited. For the validation of the nonparametric methodology, a field case study was performed using a full-scale retaining wall, which had been monitored for three years using three tilt gauges. Using the very limited sensor data, it is demonstrated that important performance-related information, such as drainage performance and sensor damage, could be disentangled from significant daily, seasonal and multiyear environmental variations. Extensive literature review on recent developments of parametric and nonparametric data processing techniques for geotechnical applications is also presented.

  1. Long-term athlete development Canada: attempting system change and multi-agency cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Stephen R

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a synopsis, as well as some greater detail, concerning the "Canadian Sport for Life" project Long-Term Athlete Development Canada (LTAD) initiated in 2004. The genesis of the project may be found in the Canadian Sport Policy released in 2002 by Sport Canada, the sport participation and performance agency within the Canadian Heritage Ministry of the Canadian Government. The project has grown from relatively humble beginnings to become a system-wide movement and catalyst for change that encompasses not only sport participation and excellence, but also aspects to do with education, health, and general recreation. Additionally, it involves all age groups (cradle to grave). Although the project was initiated on behalf of performance sport, it is a clear example of how sport can influence and interact with many facets of a society. In Canada, LTAD clearly is tied to a philosophy that spans a broad narrative from healthy active lives to elite sport performance.

  2. The stability of vacuum phototriodes to varying light pulse loads and long term changes in response.

    CERN Document Server

    Hobson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Mesh anode Vacuum Phototriodes (VPTs) are radiation resistant, single gain-stage photomultipliers which are designed to operate in a strong quasi-axial magnetic field. These VPTs are used in the endcap electromagnetic calorimeter of the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC to detect scintillation light from lead tungstate crystals. Short term dynamic response changes occur because of pulse rate variations during normal LHC operation cycles. Over the longer term the effect of increasing integrated charge taken from the photocathode causes an overall degradation of response. We have investigated these effects over time periods exceeding two years of simulated operation and discuss the implications for the long term performance of the VPTs in CMS.

  3. Long-term changes in cell population kinetics of skin tissue after local beta-irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamaguchi, T [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)

    1975-06-01

    Using /sup 3/H-thymidine autoradiography, long-term alterations in cell kinetics were studied in guinea pig skin after ..beta..irradiation with 3000 rads. After complete depopulation, epidermal basal cells at the radiation margin became proliferative 10 days postirradiation and spread over the depopulated area. When epithelization (20 days) was complete the cell cycle time of the basal cells reverted to normal, but the differentiation rate was much slower than that in unirradiated skin. This appeared to be a cause of the persistent (acanthotic) hyperplasia. Similar but slower changes were found in dermal tissue. Reparative proliferation of fibroblasts and capillary endothelial cells began at 20 and 30 days, respectively. Active fibroblastic proliferation was found as late as 110 days. This, along with the abortive nature of the reparative angiogenesis, seemed to be a cause of the later fibrosis (150 to 400 days).

  4. Pulmonary function changes in long-term survivors of bone marrow transplantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gore, Elizabeth M.; Lawton, Colleen A.; Ash, Robert C.; Lipchik, Randolph J.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: This study was undertaken to evaluate long-term pulmonary function changes in patients undergoing bone marrow transplantation (BMT), to assess their clinical significance, and to identify factors influencing these changes. Methods and Materials: Pulmonary function tests (PFT) were evaluated before and after BMT in 111 adult patients undergoing BMT between 1985 and 1991. Forced expiratory volume at 1 s (FEV 1 ), forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusing capacity (DLCO), and total lung capacity (TLC) were evaluated. One hundred and three patients (92.8%) received total body irradiation (TBI) to a total dose of 14 Gy in nine equal fractions. The lung dose was restricted to 1 , FVC, and TLC were lower than pre transplant values (p 1 did not fall significantly in patients without acute or chronic GVHD and recovered earlier than in patients without post transplant pulmonary infection. Recovery of FVC, TLC, and DLCO was also delayed in patients with acute and chronic GVHD and post transplant pulmonary infection. Multiple regression analysis revealed an association between a higher radiation dose to the lungs, and decreased FVC at 2 years (p = 0.01). Progressive obstructive pulmonary disease was not observed. Conclusions: An initial decline in PFTs with subsequent recovery was observed. Factors associated with delayed recovery and incomplete recovery of PFTs were GVHD, post transplant pulmonary infection, and higher radiation dose to the lungs. The conditioning regimen used at Medical College of Wisconsin, including relatively high TBI doses with partial transmission pulmonary shielding, appears to be well tolerated by the lungs in long-term survivors. No progressive decline in PFTs or symptomatic decline in pulmonary function was observed during the time interval studied

  5. Enabling Long-Term Earth Science Research: Changing Data Practices (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, K. S.

    2013-12-01

    Data stewardship plans are shaped by our shared experiences. As a result, community engagement and collaborative activities are central to the stewardship of data. Since modes and mechanisms of engagement have changed, we benefit from asking anew: ';Who are the communities?' and ';What are the lessons learned?'. Data stewardship with its long-term care perspective, is enriched by reflection on community experience. This presentation draws on data management issues and strategies originating from within long-term research communities as well as on recent studies informed by library and information science. Ethnographic case studies that capture project activities and histories are presented as resources for comparative analysis. Agency requirements and funding opportunities are stimulating collaborative endeavors focused on data re-use and archiving. Research groups including earth scientists, information professionals, and data systems designers are recognizing the possibilities for new ways of thinking about data in the digital arena. Together, these groups are re-conceptualizing and reconfiguring for data management and data curation. A differentiation between managing data for local use and production of data for re-use remotely in locations and fields remote from the data origin is just one example of the concepts emerging to facilitate development of data management. While earth scientists as data generators have the responsibility to plan new workflows and documentation practices, data and information specialists have responsibility to promote best practices as well as to facilitate the development of community resources such as controlled vocabularies and data dictionaries. With data-centric activities and changing data practices, the potential for creating dynamic community information environments in conjunction with development of data facilities exists but remains elusive.

  6. Incidence of climate on common frog breeding: Long-term and short-term changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neveu, André

    2009-09-01

    In Brittany (northwest France), the climate is showing a trend toward warming. This change is increasingly suspected to have a role in driving amphibian decline, but it is very difficult to determine at what level the climate affects the future of species. Recently, some studies have detected some direct effects on breeding phenology and indirect effects on energy allocation. The present study explores some of these effects on the common frog ( Rana temporaria) from 1984 to 2007. The results show two trends: a long-term change in breeding activities and a short-term influence due to the 2003 climatic anomaly. For the period of study, the start of egg-laying shows a precocity that was correlated with thermal conditions during the preceding 40 days as well as milder springs during the previous year. This degree of precocity is currently the highest found in Europe (+26.6 days). As a result of the 2003 heat wave, the clutch mean fecundity in 2004 was smaller than for other years, the fecundity rates were reduced and abortions were numerous (unlike other years). Moreover, young females were the smallest observed in recent years and some females seemed to exhibit a trade-off between fecundity and growth. Before or after egg-laying, female body condition and mean weight of mature ovules were both lower. The year 2005 appears as a transition period before the recovery in 2006-2007. The results show that climate warming endangers the vital rates of the common frog, while the 2003 climatic events seem more detrimental than the long-term warming trend.

  7. Long-term Increases in Flower Production by Growth Forms in Response to Anthropogenic Change in a Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pau, S.; Wright, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    There is mounting evidence that anthropogenic global change is altering the ecology of tropical forests. A limited number of studies have focused on long-term trends in tropical reproductive activity, yet differences in reproductive activity should have consequences for demography and ultimately forest carbon, water, and energy balance. Here we analyze a 28-year record of tropical flower production in response to anthropogenic climate change. We show that a multi-decadal increase in flower production is most strongly driven by rising atmospheric CO2, which had approximately 8x the effect of the Multivariate ENSO Index and approximately 13x the effect of rainfall or solar radiation. Interannual peaks in flower production were associated with greater solar radiation and low rainfall during El Niño years. Observed changes in solar radiation explained flower production better than rainfall (models including solar radiation accounted for 94% of cumulative AICc weight compared to 87% for rainfall). All growth forms (lianas, canopy trees, midstory trees, and shrubs) produced more flowers with increasing CO2 except for understory treelets. The increase in flower production was matched by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy trees and midstory trees; duration was also longer for understory treelets. Given that anthropogenic CO2 emissions will continue to climb over the next century, the long-term increase in flower production may persist unless offset by increasing cloudiness in the tropics, or until rising CO2 and/or warming temperatures associated with the greenhouse effect pass critical thresholds for plant reproduction.

  8. Biochemical Changes in Erythrocytes as a Molecular Marker of Cell Damage during Long-Term Simvastatin Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikashinovich, Z I; Belousova, E S

    2016-08-01

    Long-term administration of simvastatin to rats, irrespective of the baseline cholesterol levels, induced biochemical changes in erythrocytes attesting to hypoxic damage (accumulation of lactate and 2,3-diphosphoglycerate), disturbances in ATP-dependent mechanisms of ion homeostasis regulation (decrease in total ATPase and Ca(2+)-ATPase activities), and antioxidant enzymes system imbalance. These changes can be considered as a sensitive indicator and molecular basis of cell damage during long-term administration of statins.

  9. Long-term correlated change between personality traits and perceived social support in middle adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allemand, Mathias; Schaffhuser, Kathrin; Martin, Mike

    2015-03-01

    This study investigated long-term correlated change between personality traits and perceived social support in middle adulthood. Two measurement occasions with an 8-year time interval from the Interdisciplinary Longitudinal Study on Adult Development (ILSE) were used. The sample consisted of 346 middle-aged adults (46-50 years at T1). Four different types of perceived social support were assessed. Personality traits were assessed with the NEO-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). Longitudinal measurement invariance (MI) was established for both measures. The mean rank-order stabilities were .79 and .62 for personality traits and for perceived social support, respectively. The results demonstrated a mean-level increase for neuroticism and a decrease for extraversion and significant change variances for all constructs. The results of latent change models showed significant initial level correlations and correlated changes between personality traits and social support, implying that changes in these constructs show commonality. The results can expand our current thinking about correlated change in personality. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  10. Computer Simulations of Developmental Change: The Contributions of Working Memory Capacity and Long-Term Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Gobet, Fernand; Pine, Julian M.

    2008-01-01

    Increasing working memory (WM) capacity is often cited as a major influence on children's development and yet WM capacity is difficult to examine independently of long-term knowledge. A computational model of children's nonword repetition (NWR) performance is presented that independently manipulates long-term knowledge and WM capacity to determine…

  11. Climate Change Impacts on pricing Long-Term Flood Insurance: A Comprehensive Study for the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.

    2011-01-01

    Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk

  12. Sustainable Change Sequence: a framework for developing behavior change interventions for patients with long-term conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Elwyn, Glyn; Marrin, Katy; Frosch, Dominick; White, James

    2014-01-01

    Objective\\ud \\ud Interactive interventions are increasingly advocated to support behavior change for patients who have long-term conditions. Such interventions are most likely to achieve behavior change when they are based on appropriate theoretical frameworks. Developers of interventions are faced with a diverse set of behavioral theories that do not specifically address intervention development. The aim of our work was to develop a framework to guide the developers of interactive healthcare...

  13. Becoming a normal guy: Men making sense of long-term bodily changes following bariatric surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groven, Karen Synne; Galdas, Paul; Solbrække, Kari Nyheim

    2015-01-01

    To date, research on bodily changes following bariatric surgery has focused predominantly on women, leaving the long-term experience of men relatively unexplored. In this paper, we draw on interviews with men who have undergone an irreversible gastric bypass procedure to explore their bodily changes more than 4 years post-surgery. We apply a phenomenological framework that draws on Leder's perspectives on the "disappearing" and "dys-appearing" body, combined with a gender-sensitive lens that draws on Connell's theory of hegemonic masculinity and Robertson's conceptions of embodied masculinity. Our principal finding was that the men negotiated their bodily changes following bariatric surgery in profoundly ambivalent ways. Although they enthusiastically praised the surgery for improving their health, self-esteem, and social functioning, they also emphasized their efforts to cope with post-surgical side effects and life-threatening complications. Our analysis elaborates on their efforts to adjust to and come to terms with these changes, focusing on episodes of hypoglycemia, severe pain and internal herniation, and the significance of physical activity and exercise. Our findings point to the need to acknowledge men's ways of making sense of profound and ongoing bodily changes following bariatric surgery and how these negotiations are closely intertwined with masculine ideals of embodiment and social value.

  14. Becoming a normal guy: Men making sense of long-term bodily changes following bariatric surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Synne Groven

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: To date, research on bodily changes following bariatric surgery has focused predominantly on women, leaving the long-term experience of men relatively unexplored. In this paper, we draw on interviews with men who have undergone an irreversible gastric bypass procedure to explore their bodily changes more than 4 years post-surgery. We apply a phenomenological framework that draws on Leder's perspectives on the “disappearing” and “dys-appearing” body, combined with a gender-sensitive lens that draws on Connell's theory of hegemonic masculinity and Robertson's conceptions of embodied masculinity. Findings: Our principal finding was that the men negotiated their bodily changes following bariatric surgery in profoundly ambivalent ways. Although they enthusiastically praised the surgery for improving their health, self-esteem, and social functioning, they also emphasized their efforts to cope with post-surgical side effects and life-threatening complications. Our analysis elaborates on their efforts to adjust to and come to terms with these changes, focusing on episodes of hypoglycemia, severe pain and internal herniation, and the significance of physical activity and exercise. Conclusions: Our findings point to the need to acknowledge men's ways of making sense of profound and ongoing bodily changes following bariatric surgery and how these negotiations are closely intertwined with masculine ideals of embodiment and social value.

  15. The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisch, Harry; Andrews, Howard F; Fisch, Karen S; Golden, Robert; Liberson, Gary; Olsson, Carl A

    2003-07-01

    According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (phuman fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.

  16. Changes in the Long-Term Intensity Variations in Cygnus X-2 and LMC X-3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, B.; Kitamoto, S.; Makino, F.

    2000-01-01

    We report the detection of changes in the long-term intensity variations in two X-ray binaries, Cyg X-2 and LMC X-3. In this work, we have used the long-term light curves obtained with the All-Sky Monitors (ASMs) of the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), Ginga, Ariel 5, and Vela 5B and the scanning modulation collimator of HEAO 1. It is found that in the light curves of both the sources, obtained with these instruments at various times over the last 30 years, more than one periodic or quasi-periodic component is always present. The multiple prominent peaks in the periodograms have frequencies unrelated to each other. In Cyg X-2, RXTE-ASM data show strong peaks at 40.4 and 68.8 days, and Ginga-ASM data show strong peaks at 53.7 and 61.3 days. Multiple peaks are also observed in LMC X-3. The various strong peaks in the periodograms of LMC X-3 appear at 104, 169, and 216 days (observed with RXTE-ASM) and 105, 214, and 328 days (observed with Ginga-ASM). The present results, when compared with the earlier observations of periodicities in these two systems, demonstrate the absence of any stable long period. The 78 day periodicity detected earlier in Cyg X-2 was probably due to the short time base in the RXTE data that were used, and the periodicity of 198 days in LMC X-3 was due to a relatively short duration of observation with HEAO 1.

  17. A prospective cohort study of long-term cognitive changes in older Medicare beneficiaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolinsky, Fredric D; Bentler, Suzanne E; Hockenberry, Jason; Jones, Michael P; Weigel, Paula A; Kaskie, Brian; Wallace, Robert B

    2011-09-20

    Promoting cognitive health and preventing its decline are longstanding public health goals, but long-term changes in cognitive function are not well-documented. Therefore, we first examined long-term changes in cognitive function among older Medicare beneficiaries in the Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD), and then we identified the risk factors associated with those changes in cognitive function. We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective, population-based cohort using baseline (1993-1994) interview data linked to 1993-2007 Medicare claims to examine cognitive function at the final follow-up interview which occurred between 1995-1996 and 2006-2007. Besides traditional risk factors (i.e., aging, age, race, and education) and adjustment for baseline cognitive function, we considered the reason for censoring (entrance into managed care or death), and post-baseline continuity of care and major health shocks (hospital episodes). Residual change score multiple linear regression analysis was used to predict cognitive function at the final follow-up using data from telephone interviews among 3,021 to 4,251 (sample size varied by cognitive outcome) baseline community-dwelling self-respondents that were ≥ 70 years old, not in managed Medicare, and had at least one follow-up interview as self-respondents. Cognitive function was assessed using the 7-item Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-7; general mental status), and the 10-item immediate and delayed (episodic memory) word recall tests. Mean changes in the number of correct responses on the TICS-7, and 10-item immediate and delayed word recall tests were -0.33, -0.75, and -0.78, with 43.6%, 54.9%, and 52.3% declining and 25.4%, 20.8%, and 22.9% unchanged. The main and most consistent risks for declining cognitive function were the baseline values of cognitive function (reflecting substantial regression to the mean), aging (a strong linear pattern of increased decline

  18. Long term changes in forest cover and land use of Similipal ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K R L Saranya and C Sudhakar Reddy. ∗. Forestry & Ecology Group, National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO, Balanagar, Hyderabad 500 037, India. ∗. Corresponding author. e-mail: drsudhakarreddy@gmail.com. The spatial changes in forest cover of Similipal biosphere reserve, Odisha, India over eight decades (1930–.

  19. Long-term changes in rocky intertidal macrobenthos during the five years after the Hebei Spirit oil spill, Taean, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Yun-Hwan; Park, Henug-Sik; Yoon, Kon-Tak; Kim, Hyung-June; Shim, Won-Joon

    2017-03-01

    The Hebei Spirit oil spill reached the west coast of Taean County, Korea, on December 7, 2007. At that time, this was the largest oil spill that had occurred in the country. The incident devastated local marine ecosystems. In this study, we examined changes in these ecosystems and the recovery pattern on impacted rocky shores. Macrobenthos monitoring of polluted and control sites was performed seasonally from January 2008 through October 2013. At polluted sites, ecological indices increased gradually from 2009, thereby providing evidence of recovery. However, the mean density of macrobenthos was still less than 50% of the level at the control site, indicating that the ecological status of the polluted sites has still not recovered to that which prevailed before the oil spill. Although densities of the most dominant species were higher in the control site than in polluted sites, the densities of Lottia spp. and Odostomia aomori were higher in polluted sites. These two taxa were found in lower numbers at the control site, where they were out-competed by Chthamalus challengeri. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination divided the macrobenthic community structure into three clusters according to differences in the abundance of dominant species over the 6 years after the oil spill. An ANOSIM test detected significant differences between the polluted and control sites. Consistent long-term differences indicate that complete recovery had not occurred during the duration of our study.

  20. Testing causes for long-term changes in carbon cycling and climate during the early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komar, N.; Zeebe, R. E.; Dickens, G. R.

    2013-12-01

    The late Paleocene to the early Eocene (˜58-52 Ma) was marked by significant changes in global climate and carbon cycling. Among the evidence for these changes, stable isotope records reveal a prominent decrease of δ13C and δ18O (in both surface and deep ocean), indicating a reorganization in the long-term global carbon cycle and a long-term warming trend (˜4°C), respectively. Concurrently, deep-sea carbonate records at several sites indicate a deepening of the calcite compensation depth (CCD). Here, we investigate possible causes (e.g., increased volcanic degassing, decreased net organic burial, and accelerated dissociation of gas hydrate) for these observations, but from a new perspective. The basic model employed is a modified version of GEOCARB III. However, we have coupled this well-known geochemical model to LOSCAR, a model that enables simulation of seawater carbonate chemistry, the CCD, and ocean δ13C. We have also added a gas hydrate capacitor that can account for the storage and release of methane from the seafloor over millions of years. We further consider accurate input data (e.g., δ13C of carbonate) on a currently accepted time scale that spans an interval much longer than the perturbation. Several different scenarios are investigated with the goal of consistency amongst inferred changes in temperature, the CCD, and surface ocean and deep ocean δ13C. The results strongly suggest that a decrease in net organic carbon burial drove carbon cycle changes during the late Paleocene and early Eocene, although an increase in volcanic activity might have contributed. Importantly, a drop in net organic carbon burial may represent increased oxidation of previously deposited organic carbon, such as stored in peat or gas hydrates. The model successfully recreates trends in Earth surface warming, as inferred from δ18O records, the CCD, and δ13C. At the moment, however, our coupled modeling effort cannot reproduce the magnitude of change in all these

  1. Long-term change in the megabenthos of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (NE Atlantic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billett, D. S. M.; Bett, B. J.; Rice, A. L.; Thurston, M. H.; Galéron, J.; Sibuet, M.; Wolff, G. A.

    A radical change in the abundance of invertebrate megafauna on the Porcupine Abyssal Plain is reported over a period of 10 years (1989-1999). Actiniarians, annelids, pycnogonids, tunicates, ophiuroids and holothurians increased significantly in abundance. However, there was no significant change in wet weight biomass. Two holothurian species, Amperima rosea and Ellipinion molle, increased in abundance by more than two orders of magnitude. Samples from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain over a longer period (1977-1999) show that prior to 1996 these holothurian species were always a minor component of the megafauna. From 1996 to 1999 A. rosea was abundant over a wide area of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain indicating that the phenomenon was not a localised event. Several dominant holothurian species show a distinct trend in decreasing body size over the study period. The changes in megafauna abundance may be related to environmental forcing (food supply) rather than to localised stochastic population variations. Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in organic matter supply to the seabed may be responsible for the observed changes in abundance, species dominance and size distributions.

  2. Persistent, Long-term Cerebral White Matter Changes after Sports-Related Repetitive Head Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazarian, Jeffrey J.; Zhu, Tong; Zhong, Jianhui; Janigro, Damir; Rozen, Eric; Roberts, Andrew; Javien, Hannah; Merchant-Borna, Kian; Abar, Beau; Blackman, Eric G.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Repetitive head impacts (RHI) sustained in contact sports are thought to be necessary for the long-term development of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). Our objectives were to: 1) characterize the magnitude and persistence of RHI-induced white matter (WM) changes; 2) determine their relationship to kinematic measures of RHI; and 3) explore their clinical relevance. Methods Prospective, observational study of 10 Division III college football players and 5 non-athlete controls during the 2011-12 season. All subjects underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), physiologic, cognitive, and balance testing at pre-season (Time 1), post-season (Time 2), and after 6-months of no-contact rest (Time 3). Head impact measures were recorded using helmet-mounted accelerometers. The percentage of whole-brain WM voxels with significant changes in fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) from Time 1 to 2, and Time 1 to 3 was determined for each subject and correlated to head impacts and clinical measures. Results Total head impacts for the season ranged from 431–1,850. No athlete suffered a clinically evident concussion. Compared to controls, athletes experienced greater changes in FA and MD from Time 1 to 2 as well as Time 1 to 3; most differences at Time 2 persisted to Time 3. Among athletes, the percentage of voxels with decreased FA from Time 1 to 2 was positively correlated with several helmet impact measures. The persistence of WM changes from Time 1 to 3 was also associated with changes in serum ApoA1 and S100B autoantibodies. WM changes were not consistently associated with cognition or balance. Conclusions A single football season of RHIs without clinically-evident concussion resulted in WM changes that correlated with multiple helmet impact measures and persisted following 6 months of no-contact rest. This lack of WM recovery could potentially contribute to cumulative WM changes with subsequent RHI exposures. PMID:24740265

  3. Conversion from long-term cultivated wheat field to Jerusalem artichoke plantation changed soil fungal communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xingang; Zhang, Jianhui; Gao, Danmei; Gao, Huan; Guo, Meiyu; Li, Li; Zhao, Mengliang; Wu, Fengzhi

    2017-01-01

    Understanding soil microbial communities in agroecosystems has the potential to contribute to the improvement of agricultural productivity and sustainability. Effects of conversion from long-term wheat plantation to Jerusalem artichoke (JA) plantation on soil fungal communities were determined by amplicon sequencing of total fungal ITS regions. Quantitative PCR and PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis were also used to analyze total fungal and Trichoderma spp. ITS regions and Fusarium spp. Ef1α genes. Results showed that soil organic carbon was higher in the first cropping of JA and Olsen P was lower in the third cropping of JA. Plantation conversion changed soil total fungal and Fusarium but not Trichoderma spp. community structures and compositions. The third cropping of JA had the lowest total fungal community diversity and Fusarium spp. community abundance, but had the highest total fungal and Trichoderma spp. community abundances. The relative abundances of potential fungal pathogens of wheat were higher in the wheat field. Fungal taxa with plant growth promoting, plant pathogen or insect antagonistic potentials were enriched in the first and second cropping of JA. Overall, short-term conversion from wheat to JA plantation changed soil fungal communities, which is related to changes in soil organic carbon and Olsen P contents.

  4. Modeling studies of unsaturated flow with long-term permeability change at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Chengyuan; Liu Xiaoyan; Liu Quansheng

    2008-01-01

    The amount of water seeping into the waste emplacement drifts is crucial for the performance of underground nuclear waste repository, since it controls the corrosion rates of waste packages and the mobilization rate of radionuclides. It is limited by water flow through drift vicinity. In the present work we study the potential rates of water flow around drifts as a function of predicted long-term change of permeability at Yucca Mountain, based on a dual-continuum model of the unsaturated flow in fractured rock mass. For stage of DECOVALEX Ⅳ, we used a simplified practical model on unsaturated flow in Yucca Mountain case simulation. These models contain main physical processes that should be considered, including thermal expansion, thermal radiation, water-rock coupling and stress-induced change of permeability. Comparative study with other DECOVALEX team's results shows that they are both good enough and flexible enough to include more physical processes. We can draw the conclusion that it is necessary to model stress-induced changes in permeability and relative processes in future studies, because there are obvious differences (in water saturation and water flux) between simulation cases with and without variable permeability, especially in areas very close to the drift. (authors)

  5. Long-term monitoring of change in Tropical grasslands- GLORIA network in the Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuesta, F. X.; Muriel, P.; Halloy, S.; Beck, S.; Meneses, R. I.; Irazabal, J.; Aguirre, N.; Viñas, P.; Suarez, D.; Becerra, M. T.; Gloria-Andes Network

    2013-05-01

    It has been shown that predicted warming and increased frequency of extreme weather events increase with altitude in the Andean mountains. Combined with enormous topographic (and hence precipitation) heterogeneity, poverty and intensive land use, creates in the region a situation of high vulnerability to global change. Since 2005 the network Global Research Initiative in Alpine Environment (GLORIA) sites have been progressively installed in Andean countries to monitor changes, document the type and magnitude of impacts and provide guidance to develop adaptation strategies for biodiversity, humans, and productive systems. We report the preliminary results from 10 of those sites, in addition to new sites planned in South America. These sites provide baseline data and identify processes and patterns in plant biodiversity across different geographic contexts. These preliminary results show the tremendous singularity of the vegetation and flora patterns in the study sites, suggesting high sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate anomalies. It is expected that the consolidation of this network will support and strengthen long-term observation and monitoring research programs to enable the documentation and understanding of climate change impacts on the Andean biota. Our research considers complementary modules of investigation (e.g. carbon stocks and fluxes, plant responses to experimental manipulation) that contextualize the challenges and opportunities of adaptation for biodiversity and socio-economic components, providing measures of trends as well as effectiveness of adaptive management strategies.

  6. Long-term changes in retinal vascular diameter and cognitive impairment in type 1 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunley, Karen A; Metti, Andrea L; Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E; Saxton, Judith A; Orchard, Trevor J; Costacou, Tina; Aizenstein, Howard J; Rosano, Caterina

    2018-05-01

    To assess associations between cognitive impairment and longitudinal changes in retinal microvasculature, over 18 years, in adults with type 1 diabetes. Participants of the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study received ≥3 fundus photographs between baseline (1986-1988) and time of cognitive assessment (2010-2015: N = 119; 52% male; mean age and type 1 diabetes duration 43 and 34 years, respectively). Central retinal arteriolar equivalent and central retinal venular equivalent were estimated via computer-based methods; overall magnitude and speed of narrowing were quantified as cumulative average and slope, respectively. Median regression models estimated associations of central retinal arteriolar equivalent and central retinal venular equivalent measures with cognitive impairment status, adjusted for type 1 diabetes duration. Interactions with HbA1c, proliferative retinopathy and white matter hyperintensities were assessed. Compared with participants without cognitive impairment, those with clinically relevant cognitive impairment experienced 1.8% greater and 31.1% faster central retinal arteriolar equivalent narrowing during prior years (t = -2.93, p = 0.004 and t = -3.97, p impairment. Long-term arterial retinal changes could indicate type 1 diabetes-related cognitive impairment. Studies examining longitudinal central retinal arteriolar equivalent changes as early biomarkers of cognitive impairment risk are warranted.

  7. Long-term effect of a name change for schizophrenia on reducing stigma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koike, Shinsuke; Yamaguchi, Sosei; Ojio, Yasutaka; Shimada, Takafumi; Watanabe, Kei-ichiro; Ando, Shuntaro

    2015-10-01

    A name change for schizophrenia was first implemented in Japan for reducing stigma in 2002; however, little is known of its long-term impact. Total 259 students from 20 universities answered an anonymous self-administered questionnaire about their mental health-related experiences, and stigma scales including feasible knowledge and negative stereotypes for four specific diseases, including schizophrenia (old and new names), depression, and diabetes mellitus. We also asked to choose the old and new names of schizophrenia and dementia among ten names for mental and physical illnesses and conditions. The participants had more feasible knowledge and fewer negative stereotypes for the new name of schizophrenia than the old name, but were still significantly worse than for depression and diabetes mellitus (p stereotypes (β = 0.13, p = 0.020). The rate of correct responses for the old and new names of schizophrenia was significantly lower than that of dementia (41 vs. 87%, p media was associated with the recognition of name change for schizophrenia (p = 0.008), which was associated with less feasible knowledge for new name of schizophrenia. The name change of schizophrenia has reduced stigma since 12 years have passed. More effective campaigns, educational curricula, and policy making are needed to reduce stigma toward schizophrenia.

  8. Using the ecological framework to identify barriers and enablers to implementing Namaste Care in Canada's long-term care system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Paulette V; Kaasalainen, Sharon; Froggatt, Katherine A; Ploeg, Jenny; Dolovich, Lisa; Simard, Joyce; Salsali, Mahvash

    2017-10-01

    Higher acuity of care at the time of admission to long-term care (LTC) is resulting in a shorter period to time of death, yet most LTC homes in Canada do not have formalized approaches to palliative care. Namaste Care is a palliative care approach specifically tailored to persons with advanced cognitive impairment who are living in LTC. The purpose of this study was to employ the ecological framework to identify barriers and enablers to an implementation of Namaste Care. Six group interviews were conducted with families, unlicensed staff, and licensed staff at two Canadian LTC homes that were planning to implement Namaste Care. None of the interviewees had prior experience implementing Namaste Care. The resulting qualitative data were analyzed using a template organizing approach. We found that the strongest implementation enablers were positive perceptions of need for the program, benefits of the program, and fit within a resident-centred or palliative approach to care. Barriers included a generally low resource base for LTC, the need to adjust highly developed routines to accommodate the program, and reliance on a casual work force. We conclude that within the Canadian LTC system, positive perceptions of Namaste Care are tempered by concerns about organizational capacity to support new programming.

  9. What happens in an estuary doesn't stay there: patterns of biotic connectivity resulting from long term ecological research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, Martha E.; Finn, John T.; Kennedy, Christina G.; Deegan, Linda A.; Smith, Joseph M.

    2013-01-01

    The paucity of data on migratory connections and an incomplete understanding of how mobile organisms use geographically separate areas have been obstacles to understanding coastal dynamics. Research on acoustically tagged striped bass (Morone saxatilis) at the Plum Island Ecosystems (PIE) Long Term Ecological Research site, Massachusetts, documents intriguing patterns of biotic connectivity (i.e., long-distance migration between geographically distinct areas). First, the striped bass tagged at PIE migrated southward along the coast using different routes. Second, these tagged fish exhibited strong fidelity and specificity to PIE. For example, across multiple years, tagged striped bass resided in PIE waters for an average of 1.5-2.5 months per year (means: 51-72 days; range 2-122 days), left this estuary in fall, then returned in subsequent years. Third, this specificity and fidelity connected PIE to other locations. The fish exported nutrients and energy to at least three other coastal locations through biomass added as growth. These results demonstrate that what happens in an individual estuary can affect other estuaries. Striped bass that use tightly connected routes to feed in specific estuaries should have greater across-system impacts than fish that are equally likely to go anywhere. Consequently, variations in when, where, and how fish migrate can alter across-estuary impacts.

  10. Evaluation of long-term geological and climatic changes in the Spanish programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres, T.; Ortiz, J.E.; Cortes, A.; Delgado, A.

    2004-01-01

    The Bio-molecular Stratigraphy Laboratory of the Madrid School of Mines has been largely involved in the analysis of long-term paleo-environmental changes in the Iberian Peninsula during the Quaternary. Some of the research projects were UE funded: Paleo-climatological Revision of Climate Evolution in Western Mediterranean Region. Evaluation of Altered Scenarios, Evidence from Quaternary Infill Paleo-hydrogeology, Sequential Biosphere modelling function of Climate evolution models; Paleo-hydrogeological Data Analysis and Model Testing. Other projects were funded by the National Company for Radioactive Waste Management (ENRESA) and the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN): 'Paleo-climate reconstruction from Middle Pleistocene times through dating and isotopic analysis of tufa deposits'; 'Paleo-environmental evolution of the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula'; 'Paleo-climate'. On a minor scale the laboratory was also involved in the study of some argillaceous media: 'Organic Geochemistry of some deep Spanish argillaceous formations' and 'Effects of climatic change on the argillaceous series of the Duero and Ebro basins'. Here we will present some of the results obtained from tufa deposits analysis and paleo-environmental information from the Guadix-Baza Basin composite-stratigraphical-type-section study. (authors)

  11. Colour changes in prints during long-term dark storage of prints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parraman, Carinna

    2010-01-01

    The most significant impact on colour fading in prints is exposure to light and air. However what happens to coloured prints during long-term storage in boxes, drawers and on shelves? Measurements of samples, printed in July 2005, stored in a range of light and darkened storage conditions have shown some interesting initial results. As more emphasis is placed on the effects of light, the dark stability of inkjet prints is relatively overlooked when considering how to preserve or store coloured prints. This study and presentation builds on previous research [1] and has concentrated on the changes to colour during storage. With reference to ASTM F2035 - 00(2006) Standard Practice for Measuring the Dark Stability of Ink Jet Prints, the Standards outline points out that whilst natural aging is the most reliable method of assessing image stability, materials and inks any data that is produced quickly becomes redundant; therefore accelerated aging is more preferred. However, the fine art materials in this study are still very much in circulation. The leading fine art papers, and pigmented ink-sets used in these trials are still being used by artists. We can therefore demonstrate the characteristics of colour changes and the impact of ink on paper that utilises natural aging methods.

  12. Transitions to Sustainable Development. New Directions in the Study of Long Term Transformative Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grin, J.; Rotmans, J.; Schot, J.; Geels, F.; Loorbach, D.

    2010-01-01

    Over the past few decades, there has been a growing concern about the social and environmental risks which have come along with the progress achieved through a variety of mutually intertwined modernization processes. In recent years these concerns are transformed into a widely-shared sense of urgency, partly due to events such as the various pandemics threatening livestock, and increasing awareness of the risks and realities of climate change, and the energy and food crises. This sense of urgency includes an awareness that our entire social system is in need of fundamental transformation. But like the earlier transition between the 1750s and 1890s from a pre-modern to a modern industrial society, this second transition is also a contested one. Sustainable development is only one of many options. This book addresses the issue on how to understand the dynamics and governance of the second transition dynamics in order to ensure sustainable development. It will be necessary reading for students and scholars with an interest in sustainable development and long-term transformative change.

  13. Long term ice sheet mass change rates and inter-annual variability from GRACE gravimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harig, C.

    2017-12-01

    The GRACE time series of gravimetry now stretches 15 years since its launch in 2002. Here we use Slepian functions to estimate the long term ice mass trends of Greenland, Antarctica, and several glaciated regions. The spatial representation shows multi-year to decadal regional shifts in accelerations, in agreement with increases in radar derived ice velocity. Interannual variations in ice mass are of particular interest since they can directly link changes in ice sheets to the drivers of change in the polar ocean and atmosphere. The spatial information retained in Slepian functions provides a tool to determine how this link varies in different regions within an ice sheet. We present GRACE observations of the 2013-2014 slowdown in mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which was concentrated in specific parts of the ice sheet and in certain months of the year. We also discuss estimating the relative importance of climate factors that control ice mass balance, as a function of location of the glacier/ice cap as well as the spatial variation within an ice sheet by comparing gravimetry with observations of surface air temperature, ocean temperature, etc. as well as model data from climate reanalysis products.

  14. The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

  15. The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koblinsky, C.J.; Gaspar, P.; Lagerloef, G.

    1992-03-01

    The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments

  16. Transitions to Sustainable Development. New Directions in the Study of Long Term Transformative Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grin, J. [Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Rotmans, J. [Sustainability Transitions and Transition Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Schot, J. [Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Geels, F. [Science Policy Research Unit SPRU, University of Sussex, Brighton (United Kingdom); Loorbach, D. [Dutch Research Institute for Transitions Drift, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2010-07-01

    Over the past few decades, there has been a growing concern about the social and environmental risks which have come along with the progress achieved through a variety of mutually intertwined modernization processes. In recent years these concerns are transformed into a widely-shared sense of urgency, partly due to events such as the various pandemics threatening livestock, and increasing awareness of the risks and realities of climate change, and the energy and food crises. This sense of urgency includes an awareness that our entire social system is in need of fundamental transformation. But like the earlier transition between the 1750s and 1890s from a pre-modern to a modern industrial society, this second transition is also a contested one. Sustainable development is only one of many options. This book addresses the issue on how to understand the dynamics and governance of the second transition dynamics in order to ensure sustainable development. It will be necessary reading for students and scholars with an interest in sustainable development and long-term transformative change.

  17. Deviations in energy sensing predict long-term weight change in overweight Native Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basolo, Alessio; Votruba, Susanne B; Heinitz, Sascha; Krakoff, Jonathan; Piaggi, Paolo

    2018-05-01

    Energy expenditure (EE), as reflective of body energy demand, has been proposed to be the key driver of food intake, possibly influencing weight change in humans. Variation in this energy-sensing link (overeating relative to weight-maintaining energy requirements) may lead to weight gain over time. Sixty-one overweight otherwise healthy Native Americans (age: 34.0 ± 7.9 years, body fat: 39.7 ± 9.5%, 36 males) were admitted to our clinical research unit for measurements of body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and 24-h EE and respiratory quotient (RQ) in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during energy balance and weight stability. Following this, ad libitum food intake was assessed for three days using computerized vending machines. Body weight change under unrestricted free-living conditions was assessed at an outpatient follow-up visit (median follow-up time = 1.7 years). Total ad libitum food intake (3-day average) was positively associated with 24-h EE (r = 0.44, p energy requirements can be assessed and predicts long-term weight gain, suggesting that variation in energy sensing may influence appetite by favoring overeating thus promoting obesity development. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Long-term weight changes in obese young adult men and subsequent all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zimmermann, E; Berentzen, T L; Ängquist, Lars Henrik

    2013-01-01

    change and all-cause mortality in a broad range of body mass index (BMI) in young men.METHODS:Among 362200 Danish draftees, examined between 1943 and 1977, all obese (BMI 31.0 kg m(-2); n=1930), and a random 1% sample of the others (n=3601) were identified at a mean age of 20 years (range: 18-25 years......BACKGROUND:Although the expectation is that weight gain increases mortality and weight loss among those overweight reduces mortality, results on weight gain and mortality in young adults are conflicting, and weight loss is less explored. We investigated the association between long-term weight......). All the obese and half the controls were re-examined between 4 and 40 years later (mean age 35 years). Weight changes were defined as: weight loss 0.1 kg m(-2) per year. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression.RESULTS:Among the 908 obese and 1073...

  19. Long-term persistence, density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary D. Grossman; Gary Sundin; Robert E. Ratajczak

    2016-01-01

    SummaryWe used long-term population data for rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), a numerically dominant member of a stochastically organised fish assemblage, to evaluate the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent processes to population...

  20. Exploring Long-Term Impact of Grazing Management on Land Degradation in the Socio-Ecological System of Asteroussia Mountains, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Costas Kosmas

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The socio-ecological system dominated by pastureland in the Asteroussia Mountains (Crete, Greece was analyzed over a long time interval (1945–2010 to identify the most relevant system’s characteristics and changes. Vegetation cover and land-uses have been quantified by analyzing aerial photographs exploring the whole study period. Soil characteristics have been assessed by carrying out an extensive field survey for the last reference year (2010 and by estimating the average soil loss for the past period using the PESERA soil erosion model validated by field measurements. Based on environmental, social and economic attributes, three major periods characterizing the socio-ecological system of Asteroussia Mountains have been distinguished. During the first and second period, the land was satisfactorily managed with moderate–low soil erosion rates despite the adverse (prevailing soil, topographic and climate conditions for vegetation growth. The third time interval featured a rapid growth in the livestock density causing increased soil erosion rates, loss in plant productivity, and a generalized over-exploitation of natural resources. As a consequence, the desertification process has significantly increased in the last period. The analysis of the long-term evolution of socio-ecological system provided evidence to understand the main drivers of land degradation and to recommend mitigation policies specifically addressing Mediterranean pastureland.

  1. [Chronic pain patients' readiness to change after multimodal treatment. Short- and long-term effects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Küchler, A; Sabatowski, R; Kaiser, U

    2012-12-01

    , significant short- and long-term improvements were evident. For single outcome parameters, positive associations with the stages of readiness to change were found. The results indicate that the outpatient pain management program favorably affects patients' motivation and general quality of life. This effect also seems to be stable over a long period of time. As not all patients show an improvement in stage of readiness to change, the question arises whether the reason of the differences might lie within the patients' and whether specific interventions for motivation might be useful to enhance motivation before starting treatment.

  2. Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. M. Mäkelä

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD model was developed. Using mean temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season (June–August, the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908–2011, the year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data, it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However, more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain more specific information about a season's fire risk.

  3. Long-term changes in the extractability and bioavailability of zinc and cadmium after sludge application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGrath, S.P.; Zhao, F.J.; Dunham, S.J.; Crosland, A.R.; Coleman, K.

    2000-06-01

    Changes in the extractability and uptake by crops of sludge metals in a long-term field experiment, started in 1942, were measured to assess whether Zn and Cd are either fixed by the sludge/soil constituents or are released as the sludge organic matter (OM) decomposes. Total and 0.1 M CaCl{sub 2}-extractable concentrations of Zn and Cd in soil and total concentrations in crops were measured on archived crop and soil samples. Extractability of Zn as a proportion of the total ranged from 0.5 to 3% and that of Cd from 4 to 18%, and were higher in sludge-amended than farmyard manure or fertilizer-amended soils. Over a 23-yr period after 1961, when sludge was last applied, the extractability of both metals fluctuated, but neither decreased nor increased consistently. The relationships between total soil and crop metal concentrations were linear, with no evidence of a plateau across the range of soil metal concentrations achieved. The slopes of the soil-plant relationships depended on the type of crop or crop part examined, but were generally in the order red beet (Beta vulgaris L.) > sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) > carrot (Daucus carota L.) > barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). However, there also were large seasonal differences in metal concentrations in the crops. It is concluded from the available evidence that up to 23 yr after sludge applications cease, Zn and Cd extractability and bioavailability do not decrease.

  4. Long term SAR interferometry monitoring for assessing changing levels of slope instability hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasowski, J.; Ferretti, A.

    The population growth with increasing impact of man on the environment and urbanisation of areas susceptible to slope failures coupled with the ongoing change in climate patterns will require a shift in the approaches to landslide hazard reduction Indeed there is evidence that landslide activity and related socio-economic loss are increasing in both rich and less developed countries throughout the world Because of this and because the urbanisation of hillside and mountain slopes prone to failure will likely continue in the future the protection of new and pre-existing developed areas via traditional engineering stabilisation works and in situ monitoring is not considered economically feasible Furthermore in most cases the ground control systems are installed post-factum and for short term monitoring and hence their role in preventing disasters is limited Considering the global dimension of the slope instability problem a sustainable road to landslide hazard reduction seems to be via exploitation of EO systems with focus on early detection long term monitoring and early warning Thanks to the wide-area coverage regular schedule and improving resolution of space-borne sensors the EO can foster the auspicious shift from a culture of repair to a culture of awarness and prevention Under this scenario the space-borne synthetic aperture radar differential interferometry DInSAR is attractive because of its capability to provide both wide-area and spatially dense information on surface displacements Since the presence of movements represents a direct evidence of

  5. Long-term changes in species composition and relative abundances of sharks at a provisioning site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnschweiler, Juerg M; Abrantes, Kátya G; Barnett, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Diving with sharks, often in combination with food baiting/provisioning, has become an important product of today's recreational dive industry. Whereas the effects baiting/provisioning has on the behaviour and abundance of individual shark species are starting to become known, there is an almost complete lack of equivalent data from multi-species shark diving sites. In this study, changes in species composition and relative abundances were determined at the Shark Reef Marine Reserve, a multi-species shark feeding site in Fiji. Using direct observation sampling methods, eight species of sharks (bull shark Carcharhinus leucas, grey reef shark Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, whitetip reef shark Triaenodon obesus, blacktip reef shark Carcharhinus melanopterus, tawny nurse shark Nebrius ferrugineus, silvertip shark Carcharhinus albimarginatus, sicklefin lemon shark Negaprion acutidens, and tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier) displayed inter-annual site fidelity between 2003 and 2012. Encounter rates and/or relative abundances of some species changed over time, overall resulting in more individuals (mostly C. leucas) of fewer species being encountered on average on shark feeding dives at the end of the study period. Differences in shark community composition between the years 2004-2006 and 2007-2012 were evident, mostly because N. ferrugineus, C. albimarginatus and N. acutidens were much more abundant in 2004-2006 and very rare in the period of 2007-2012. Two explanations are offered for the observed changes in relative abundances over time, namely inter-specific interactions and operator-specific feeding protocols. Both, possibly in combination, are suggested to be important determinants of species composition and encounter rates, and relative abundances at this shark provisioning site in Fiji. This study, which includes the most species from a spatially confined shark provisioning site to date, suggests that long-term provisioning may result in competitive exclusion among shark

  6. Long-term changes in species composition and relative abundances of sharks at a provisioning site.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juerg M Brunnschweiler

    Full Text Available Diving with sharks, often in combination with food baiting/provisioning, has become an important product of today's recreational dive industry. Whereas the effects baiting/provisioning has on the behaviour and abundance of individual shark species are starting to become known, there is an almost complete lack of equivalent data from multi-species shark diving sites. In this study, changes in species composition and relative abundances were determined at the Shark Reef Marine Reserve, a multi-species shark feeding site in Fiji. Using direct observation sampling methods, eight species of sharks (bull shark Carcharhinus leucas, grey reef shark Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, whitetip reef shark Triaenodon obesus, blacktip reef shark Carcharhinus melanopterus, tawny nurse shark Nebrius ferrugineus, silvertip shark Carcharhinus albimarginatus, sicklefin lemon shark Negaprion acutidens, and tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier displayed inter-annual site fidelity between 2003 and 2012. Encounter rates and/or relative abundances of some species changed over time, overall resulting in more individuals (mostly C. leucas of fewer species being encountered on average on shark feeding dives at the end of the study period. Differences in shark community composition between the years 2004-2006 and 2007-2012 were evident, mostly because N. ferrugineus, C. albimarginatus and N. acutidens were much more abundant in 2004-2006 and very rare in the period of 2007-2012. Two explanations are offered for the observed changes in relative abundances over time, namely inter-specific interactions and operator-specific feeding protocols. Both, possibly in combination, are suggested to be important determinants of species composition and encounter rates, and relative abundances at this shark provisioning site in Fiji. This study, which includes the most species from a spatially confined shark provisioning site to date, suggests that long-term provisioning may result in competitive

  7. The influence of long term climate change on net infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flint, A.L.; Hevesi, J.A.; Flint, L.E.

    1993-01-01

    Net infiltration and recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high level nuclear waste repository, are determined both by the rock properties and past and future changes in climate. A 1-dimensional model was constructed to represent a borehole being drilled through the unsaturated zone. The rock properties were matched to the lithologies expected to be encountered in the borehole. As current paleoclimate theory assumes that 18 O increases with wetter and cooler global climates, a past climate scenario, built on depletion of 18 O from ocean sediments was used as a basis for climate change over the past 700,000 years. The climate change was simulated by assigning net infiltration values as a linear function of 18 O. Assuming the rock properties, lithologies, and climate scenarios are correct, simulations indicated that Yucca Mountain is not in steady state equilibrium at the surface ( 250 meters. Based on the cyclic climate inputs, the near surface is currently in a long term drying trend (for the last 3,000 years) yet recharge into the water table is continuing to occur at an average rate equivalent to the average input rate of the climate model, indicating that conditions at depth are damped out over very long time periods. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units, positioned between the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring welded tuff Members, do not appear to act as a capillary barrier and therefore would not perch water. The low porosity vitric caprock and basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member, however, act as restrictive layers. The higher porosity rock directly above the caprock reduces the potential for the caprock to perch water leaving the basal vitrophyre as the most likely location for perched water to develop

  8. Long term natural history data in ambulant boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy: 36-month changes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marika Pane

    Full Text Available The 6 minute walk test has been recently chosen as the primary outcome measure in international multicenter clinical trials in Duchenne muscular dystrophy ambulant patients. The aim of the study was to assess the spectrum of changes at 3 years in the individual measures, their correlation with steroid treatment, age and 6 minute walk test values at baseline. Ninety-six patients from 11 centers were assessed at baseline and 12, 24 and 36 months after baseline using the 6 minute walk test and the North Star Ambulatory Assessment. Three boys (3% lost the ability to perform the 6 minute walk test within 12 months, another 13 between 12 and 24 months (14% and 11 between 24 and 36 months (12%. The 6 minute walk test showed an average overall decline of -15.8 (SD 77.3 m at 12 months, of -58.9 (SD 125.7 m at 24 months and -104.22 (SD 146.2 m at 36 months. The changes were significantly different in the two baseline age groups and according to the baseline 6 minute walk test values (below and above 350 m (p<0.001. The changes were also significantly different according to steroid treatment (p = 0.01. Similar findings were found for the North Star Ambulatory Assessment. These are the first 36 month longitudinal data using the 6 minute walk test and North Star Ambulatory Assessment in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Our findings will help not only to have a better idea of the progression of the disorder but also provide reference data that can be used to compare with the results of the long term extension studies that are becoming available.

  9. Long term natural history data in ambulant boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy: 36-month changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pane, Marika; Mazzone, Elena Stacy; Sivo, Serena; Sormani, Maria Pia; Messina, Sonia; D'Amico, Adele; Carlesi, Adelina; Vita, Gianluca; Fanelli, Lavinia; Berardinelli, Angela; Torrente, Yvan; Lanzillotta, Valentina; Viggiano, Emanuela; D Ambrosio, Paola; Cavallaro, Filippo; Frosini, Silvia; Barp, Andrea; Bonfiglio, Serena; Scalise, Roberta; De Sanctis, Roberto; Rolle, Enrica; Graziano, Alessandra; Magri, Francesca; Palermo, Concetta; Rossi, Francesca; Donati, Maria Alice; Sacchini, Michele; Arnoldi, Maria Teresa; Baranello, Giovanni; Mongini, Tiziana; Pini, Antonella; Battini, Roberta; Pegoraro, Elena; Previtali, Stefano; Bruno, Claudio; Politano, Luisa; Comi, Giacomo P; Bertini, Enrico; Mercuri, Eugenio

    2014-01-01

    The 6 minute walk test has been recently chosen as the primary outcome measure in international multicenter clinical trials in Duchenne muscular dystrophy ambulant patients. The aim of the study was to assess the spectrum of changes at 3 years in the individual measures, their correlation with steroid treatment, age and 6 minute walk test values at baseline. Ninety-six patients from 11 centers were assessed at baseline and 12, 24 and 36 months after baseline using the 6 minute walk test and the North Star Ambulatory Assessment. Three boys (3%) lost the ability to perform the 6 minute walk test within 12 months, another 13 between 12 and 24 months (14%) and 11 between 24 and 36 months (12%). The 6 minute walk test showed an average overall decline of -15.8 (SD 77.3) m at 12 months, of -58.9 (SD 125.7) m at 24 months and -104.22 (SD 146.2) m at 36 months. The changes were significantly different in the two baseline age groups and according to the baseline 6 minute walk test values (below and above 350 m) (p<0.001). The changes were also significantly different according to steroid treatment (p = 0.01). Similar findings were found for the North Star Ambulatory Assessment. These are the first 36 month longitudinal data using the 6 minute walk test and North Star Ambulatory Assessment in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Our findings will help not only to have a better idea of the progression of the disorder but also provide reference data that can be used to compare with the results of the long term extension studies that are becoming available.

  10. Long-term fate of depleted uranium at Aberdeen and Yuma Proving Grounds: Human health and ecological risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebinger, M.H.; Beckman, R.J.; Myers, O.B.; Kennedy, P.L.; Clements, W.; Bestgen, H.T.

    1996-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the immediate and long-term consequences of depleted uranium (DU) in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) and Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) for the Test and Evaluation Command (TECOM) of the US Army. Specifically, we examined the potential for adverse radiological and toxicological effects to humans and ecosystems caused by exposure to DU at both installations. We developed contaminant transport models of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems at APG and terrestrial ecosystems at YPG to assess potential adverse effects from DU exposure. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the initial models showed the portions of the models that most influenced predicted DU concentrations, and the results of the sensitivity analyses were fundamental tools in designing field sampling campaigns at both installations. Results of uranium (U) isotope analyses of field samples provided data to evaluate the source of U in the environment and the toxicological and radiological doses to different ecosystem components and to humans. Probabilistic doses were estimated from the field data, and DU was identified in several components of the food chain at APG and YPG. Dose estimates from APG data indicated that U or DU uptake was insufficient to cause adverse toxicological or radiological effects. Dose estimates from YPG data indicated that U or DU uptake is insufficient to cause radiological effects in ecosystem components or in humans, but toxicological effects in small mammals (e.g., kangaroo rats and pocket mice) may occur from U or DU ingestion. The results of this study were used to modify environmental radiation monitoring plans at APG and YPG to ensure collection of adequate data for ongoing ecological and human health risk assessments

  11. Long-term fate of depleted uranium at Aberdeen and Yuma Proving Grounds: Human health and ecological risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebinger, M.H.; Beckman, R.J.; Myers, O.B. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Kennedy, P.L.; Clements, W.; Bestgen, H.T. [Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Fishery and Wildlife Biology

    1996-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the immediate and long-term consequences of depleted uranium (DU) in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) and Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) for the Test and Evaluation Command (TECOM) of the US Army. Specifically, we examined the potential for adverse radiological and toxicological effects to humans and ecosystems caused by exposure to DU at both installations. We developed contaminant transport models of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems at APG and terrestrial ecosystems at YPG to assess potential adverse effects from DU exposure. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the initial models showed the portions of the models that most influenced predicted DU concentrations, and the results of the sensitivity analyses were fundamental tools in designing field sampling campaigns at both installations. Results of uranium (U) isotope analyses of field samples provided data to evaluate the source of U in the environment and the toxicological and radiological doses to different ecosystem components and to humans. Probabilistic doses were estimated from the field data, and DU was identified in several components of the food chain at APG and YPG. Dose estimates from APG data indicated that U or DU uptake was insufficient to cause adverse toxicological or radiological effects. Dose estimates from YPG data indicated that U or DU uptake is insufficient to cause radiological effects in ecosystem components or in humans, but toxicological effects in small mammals (e.g., kangaroo rats and pocket mice) may occur from U or DU ingestion. The results of this study were used to modify environmental radiation monitoring plans at APG and YPG to ensure collection of adequate data for ongoing ecological and human health risk assessments.

  12. Long-term retinal nerve fiber layer changes following nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dotan G

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Gad Dotan,1 Michaella Goldstein,1 Anat Kesler,1 Barry Skarf21Department of Ophthalmology, Tel Aviv Medical Center, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; 2Eye Care Services, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, MI, USABackground: In cases of nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL thickness changes have been described during the first 12 months following the acute event. The purpose of this study was to report on the long-term RNFL changes in these eyes beyond the first year following onset of NAION.Methods: Fourteen eyes of 13 patients with NAION were analyzed in this retrospective observational case series study. Uninvolved eyes served as controls. All patients underwent a complete neuro-ophthalmological examination and repeat measurements of peripapillary RNFL thickness using Stratus optical coherence tomography.Results: On optical coherence tomography scan performed on average 6 months following onset of NAION, the mean global RNFL thickness (59.8 ± 11.8 μm was significantly thinner (P < 0.001 compared with uninvolved eyes (95.1 ± 13.9 μm. In a second optical coherence tomography scan performed on average 13 (range 12–23 months later, the mean global RNFL thickness (58.9 ± 6.5 μm was not significantly different (P = 0.702 from the first scan.Conclusion: There appears to be no further RNFL loss beyond the first 6 months following an acute event of NAION.Keywords: optical coherence tomography, retinal nerve fiber layer, nonartertic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy

  13. Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies

  14. Changes in body mass index in long-term childhood cancer survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Santen, Hanneke M; Geskus, Ronald B; Raemaekers, Steven; van Trotsenburg, A S Paul; Vulsma, Thomas; van der Pal, Helena J H; Caron, Hubert N; Kremer, Leontien C M

    2015-12-01

    Previous studies have reported changes in the body mass index (BMI) with time in childhood cancer survivors (CCSs) during follow-up. The limitations of these studies include that they described only a subgroup of survivors or used questionnaires with self-reported heights and weights. The goal of this study was to examine BMI in a large cohort of long-term CCSs and relate this to the BMI at diagnosis, age, sex, tumor type, treatment, and endocrine defects. All patients treated for childhood cancer at the Emma Children's Hospital/Academic Medical Center between 1966 and 1996 who had survived for at least 5 years were eligible for inclusion. For 893 CCSs with a mean follow-up of 14.9 years, the BMI at the late effects outpatient clinic was compared with the BMI for the general Dutch population. For girls, an increased prevalence of obesity was found. Risk factors for developing a high BMI at follow-up were a younger age and a high BMI at diagnosis and treatment with cranial radiotherapy. A significantly increased prevalence of severe underweight was found in all adult subgroups except for females aged 26 to 45 years. An association was found between a low BMI at diagnosis and a low BMI at follow-up. No treatment-related variables could be related to changes in BMI. The BMI at diagnosis is one of the most important predictors for the BMI at follow-up, and this suggests an important genetic or environmental cause. Adult CCSs are at high risk for developing severe underweight at follow-up. Future studies should focus on the causes and clinical consequences of underweight. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  15. Long-term ERT monitoring of biogeochemical changes of an aged hydrocarbon contamination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caterina, David; Flores Orozco, Adrian; Nguyen, Frédéric

    2017-06-01

    Adequate management of contaminated sites requires information with improved spatio-temporal resolution, in particular to assess bio-geochemical processes, such as the transformation and degradation of contaminants, precipitation of minerals or changes in groundwater geochemistry occurring during and after remediation procedures. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), a geophysical method sensitive to pore-fluid and pore-geometry properties, permits to gain quasi-continuous information about subsurface properties in real-time and has been consequently widely used for the characterization of hydrocarbon-impacted sediments. However, its application for the long-term monitoring of processes accompanying natural or engineered bioremediation is still difficult due to the poor understanding of the role that biogeochemical processes play in the electrical signatures. For in-situ studies, the task is further complicated by the variable signal-to-noise ratio and the variations of environmental parameters leading to resolution changes in the electrical images. In this work, we present ERT imaging results for data collected over a period of two years on a site affected by a diesel fuel contamination and undergoing bioremediation. We report low electrical resistivity anomalies in areas associated to the highest contaminant concentrations likely due transformations of the contaminant due to microbial activity and accompanying release of metabolic products. We also report large seasonal variations of the bulk electrical resistivity in the contaminated areas in correlation with temperature and groundwater level fluctuations. However, the amplitude of bulk electrical resistivity variations largely exceeds the amplitude expected given existing petrophysical models. Our results suggest that the variations in electrical properties are mainly controlled by microbial activity which in turn depends on soil temperature and hydrogeological conditions. Therefore, ERT can be suggested as

  16. Long-term ERT monitoring of biogeochemical changes of an aged hydrocarbon contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caterina, David; Flores Orozco, Adrian; Nguyen, Frédéric

    2017-06-01

    Adequate management of contaminated sites requires information with improved spatio-temporal resolution, in particular to assess bio-geochemical processes, such as the transformation and degradation of contaminants, precipitation of minerals or changes in groundwater geochemistry occurring during and after remediation procedures. Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), a geophysical method sensitive to pore-fluid and pore-geometry properties, permits to gain quasi-continuous information about subsurface properties in real-time and has been consequently widely used for the characterization of hydrocarbon-impacted sediments. However, its application for the long-term monitoring of processes accompanying natural or engineered bioremediation is still difficult due to the poor understanding of the role that biogeochemical processes play in the electrical signatures. For in-situ studies, the task is further complicated by the variable signal-to-noise ratio and the variations of environmental parameters leading to resolution changes in the electrical images. In this work, we present ERT imaging results for data collected over a period of two years on a site affected by a diesel fuel contamination and undergoing bioremediation. We report low electrical resistivity anomalies in areas associated to the highest contaminant concentrations likely due transformations of the contaminant due to microbial activity and accompanying release of metabolic products. We also report large seasonal variations of the bulk electrical resistivity in the contaminated areas in correlation with temperature and groundwater level fluctuations. However, the amplitude of bulk electrical resistivity variations largely exceeds the amplitude expected given existing petrophysical models. Our results suggest that the variations in electrical properties are mainly controlled by microbial activity which in turn depends on soil temperature and hydrogeological conditions. Therefore, ERT can be suggested as

  17. Minimizing the regrets of long-term urban floodplain management decisions under deeply uncertain climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, J. S.; Kirshen, P. H.; Vogel, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Making long-term floodplain management decisions under uncertain climate change is a major urban planning challenge of the 21stcentury. To support these efforts, we introduce a screening-level optimization model that identifies adaptation portfolios by minimizing the regrets associated with their flood-control and damage costs under different climate change trajectories that are deeply uncertain, i.e. have probabilities that cannot be specified plausibly. This mixed integer program explicitly considers the coupled damage-reduction impacts of different floodwall designs and property-scale investments (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing of basements, permanent retreat and insurance), recommends implementation schedules, and assesses impacts to stakeholders residing in three types of homes. An application to a stylized municipality illuminates many nonlinear system dynamics stemming from large fixed capital costs, infrastructure design thresholds, and discharge-depth-damage relationships. If stakeholders tolerate mild damage, floodwalls that fully protect a community from large design events are less cost-effective than portfolios featuring both smaller floodwalls and property-scale measures. Potential losses of property tax revenue from permanent retreat motivate municipal property-tax initiatives for adaptation financing. Yet, insurance incentives for first-floor elevation may discourage locally financed floodwalls, in turn making lower-income residents more vulnerable to severe flooding. A budget constraint analysis underscores the benefits of flexible floodwall designs with low incremental expansion costs while near-optimal solutions demonstrate the scheduling flexibility of many property-scale measures. Finally, an equity analysis shows the importance of evaluating the overpayment and under-design regrets of recommended adaptation portfolios for each stakeholder and contrasts them to single-scenario model results.

  18. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

  19. Climate change and population dynamics at the tree line: the importance of long-term studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anfodillo T

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature-limited ecosystems are believed to be extremely sensitive to global warming and the upward treeline migration is one of the most relevant phenomenon. Long term monitoring of demographic trends appears essential in order to understand possible effects of higher temperatures on cold ecosystems. Long-term monitoring of natality and mortality of a Pinus sylvestris population in the Swedish Scandes from 1973 to 2005 (Kullman 2007 showed that number of trees increased in the study plots due to higher natality rate, especially in the last decade. This reverses a natural trend of treeline decline and recession occurred in the past.

  20. Couverture dynamique optimale du risque de change de long terme pour une entreprise

    OpenAIRE

    Wojakowski, Rafal

    1997-01-01

    Chapter 1 : Optimal dynamic level risk hedging for a corporation. An optimal hedging of the exchange rate risk for a firm is considered. The concept of the long term exchange rate risk is defined by opposition to the classic exchange rate risk. The optimal hedge of the intertemporal long term exchange rate risk is derived by the method of stochastic optimal control, in a model where the exchange rate follows a Gaussian process with return to the level of parity. It is demonstrated that such a...

  1. Long-term data from a small mammal community reveal loss of diversity and potential effects of local climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Simone; Sanchez-Suarez, Cristina; Rouco, Carlos; Palomo, L Javier; Fernández, M Carmen; Kufner, Maura B; Moreno, Sacramento

    2017-10-01

    Climate change affects distribution and persistence of species. However, forecasting species' responses to these changes requires long-term data series that are often lacking in ecological studies. We used 15 years of small mammal trapping data collected between 1978 and 2015 in 3 areas at Doñana National Park (southwest Spain) to (i) describe changes in species composition and (ii) test the association between local climate conditions and size of small mammal populations. Overall, 5 species were captured: wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus , algerian mouse Mus spretus , greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula , garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus , and black rat Rattus rattus . The temporal pattern in the proportion of captures of each species suggests that the small mammal diversity declined with time. Although the larger species (e.g., E. quercinus ), better adapted to colder climate, have disappeared from our trapping records, M. spretus , a small species inhabiting southwest Europe and the Mediterranean coast of Africa, currently is almost the only trapped species. We used 2-level hierarchical models to separate changes in abundance from changes in probability of capture using records of A. sylvaticus in all 3 areas and of M. spretus in 1. We found that heavy rainfall and low temperatures were positively related to abundance of A. sylvaticus , and that the number of extremely hot days was negatively related to abundance of M. spretus . Despite other mechanisms are likely to be involved, our findings support the importance of climate for the distribution and persistence of these species and raise conservation concerns about potential cascading effects in the Doñana ecosystem.

  2. Behavior Change Strategies for Successful Long-Term Weight Loss: Focusing on Dietary and Physical Activity Adherence, Not Weight Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongu, Nobuko; Kataura, Martha P.; Block, Linda M.

    2011-01-01

    This article helps Extension professionals guide individuals in a successful long-term weight loss program. A program should focus on behavioral changes (improving eating habits and physical activity), not just weight loss. In order to do this, Extension professionals should implement behavior change strategies that motivate individuals to…

  3. Long-term occlusal changes assessed by the American Board of Orthodontics' model grading system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aszkler, Robert M; Preston, Charles B; Saltaji, Humam; Tabbaa, Sawsan

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the long-term posttreatment changes in all criteria of the American Board of Orthodontics' (ABO) model grading system. We used plaster models from patients' final and posttreatment records. Thirty patients treated by 1 orthodontist using 1 bracket prescription were selected. An initial discrepancy index for each subject was performed to determine the complexity of each case. The final models were then graded using the ABO's model grading system immediately at posttreatment and postretention. Statistical analysis was performed on the 8 criteria of the model grading system, including paired t tests and Pearson correlations. An alpha of 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The average length of time between the posttreatment and postretention records was 12.7 ± 4.4 years. It was shown that alignment and rotations worsened by postretention (P = 0.014), and a weak statistically significant correlation at posttreatment and postretention was found (0.44; P = 0.016). Both marginal ridges and occlusal contacts scored less well at posttreatment. These criteria showed a significant decrease in scores between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), but the correlations were not statistically significant. The average total score showed a significant decrease between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), partly because of the large decrease in the previous 2 criteria. Higher scores for occlusal contacts and marginal ridges were found at the end of treatment; however, those scores and the overall scores for the 30 subjects improved in the postretention phase. Copyright © 2014. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  4. Lipidomic changes in rat liver after long-term exposure to ethanol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernando, Harshica; Bhopale, Kamlesh K.; Kondraganti, Shakuntala; Kaphalia, Bhupendra S.; Shakeel Ansari, G.A.

    2011-01-01

    Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) is a serious health problem with significant morbidity and mortality. In this study we examined the progression of ALD along with lipidomic changes in rats fed ethanol for 2 and 3 months to understand the mechanism, and identify possible biomarkers. Male Fischer 344 rats were fed 5% ethanol or caloric equivalent of maltose-dextrin in a Lieber-DeCarli diet. Animals were killed at the end of 2 and 3 months and plasma and livers were collected. Portions of the liver were fixed for histological and immunohistological studies. Plasma and the liver lipids were extracted and analyzed by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. A time dependent fatty infiltration was observed in the livers of ethanol-fed rats. Mild inflammation and oxidative stress were observed in some ethanol-fed rats at 3 months. The multivariate and principal component analysis of proton and phosphorus NMR spectroscopy data of extracted lipids from the plasma and livers showed segregation of ethanol-fed groups from the pair-fed controls. Significant hepatic lipids that were increased by ethanol exposure included fatty acids and triglycerides, whereas phosphatidylcholine (PC) decreased. However, both free fatty acids and PC decreased in the plasma. In liver lipids unsaturation of fatty acyl chains increased, contrary to plasma, where it decreased. Our studies confirm that over-accumulation of lipids in ethanol-induced liver steatosis accompanied by mild inflammation on long duration of ethanol exposure. Identified metabolic profile using NMR lipidomics could be further explored to establish biomarker signatures representing the etiopathogenesis, progression and/or severity of ALD. - Highlights: → Long term exposure to ethanol was studied. → A nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy based lipidomic approach was used. → We examined the clustering pattern of the NMR data with principal component analysis. → NMR data were compared with histology and

  5. Long-term change analysis of satellite-based evapotranspiration over Indian vegetated surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shweta; Bhattacharya, Bimal K.; Krishna, Akhouri P.

    2016-05-01

    In the present study, trend of satellite based annual evapotranspiration (ET) and natural forcing factors responsible for this were analyzed. Thirty years (1981-2010) of ET data at 0.08° grid resolution, generated over Indian region from opticalthermal observations from NOAA PAL and MODIS AQUA satellites, were used. Long-term data on gridded (0.5° x 0.5°) annual rainfall (RF), annual mean surface soil moisture (SSM) ERS scatterometer at 25 km resolution and annual mean incoming shortwave radiation from MERRA-2D reanalysis were also analyzed. Mann-Kendall tests were performed with time series data for trend analysis. Mean annual ET loss from Indian ago-ecosystem was found to be almost double (1100 Cubic Km) than Indian forest ecosystem (550 Cubic Km). Rainfed vegetation systems such as forest, rainfed cropland, grassland showed declining ET trend @ - 4.8, -0.6 &-0.4 Cubic Kmyr-1, respectively during 30 years. Irrigated cropland initially showed ET decline upto 1995 @ -0.8 cubic Kmyr-1 which could possibly be due to solar dimming followed by increasing ET @ 0.9 cubic Kmyr-1 after 1995. A cross-over point was detected between forest ET decline and ET increase in irrigated cropland during 2008. During 2001-2010, the four agriculturally important Indian states eastern, central, western and southern showed significantly increasing ET trend with S-score of 15-25 and Z-score of 1.09-2.9. Increasing ET in western and southern states was found to be coupled with increase in annual rainfall and SSM. But in eastern and central states no significant trend in rainfall was observed though significant increase in ET was noticed. The study recommended to investigate the influence of anthropogenic factors such as increase in area under irrigation, increased use of water for irrigation through ground water pumping, change in cropping pattern and cultivars on increasing ET.

  6. Changes in microbial populations of WPC34 and WPC80 whey protein during long term storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    The use of whey protein (WPC34 and WPC80) as a food ingredient and as a base for making biodegradable products is increasing. The need to alleviate world hunger in arid and semi-arid regions demands that we investigate the behavior of native bacteria in these products, especially during long term st...

  7. Culture Change in Long Term Care Services: Eden-Greenhouse-Aging in the Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Kendall

    2011-01-01

    To discuss the relationship between residents and the management team, we must first review the transition from a medical model to a social model of care that is sweeping across America. Long-term care (LTC) management models were developed for a very autocratic and hierarchical style of management based in the 1960s. Those facilities were built…

  8. Long-term corporate climate change targets: What could they deliver?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gouldson, Andy; Sullivan, Rory

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Increasingly, companies are setting long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. ► Many of these corporate targets appear to exceed those being set by national governments. ► Achieving these corporate targets relies on energy prices remaining high. ► Weaknesses in corporate reporting make it difficult to tell whether targets are being achieved. -- Abstract: Driven by the rising cost of energy, stakeholder pressure and the expectation that governments will continue to implement policy measures directed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, an increasing number of companies have set targets to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These commitments raise two important questions. The first is whether they can be considered – individually or collectively – to be an appropriate response to the threat presented by climate change. The second is whether they are dependable; that is, can policy makers and other stakeholders can rely on companies to deliver on the commitments that they have made? This article examines these two questions using the case of the UK supermarket sector to illustrate and explain the issues at stake and, more generally, to examine the contribution that these types of voluntary commitments can make to wider public policy goals on climate change. The reasons for focusing on the UK supermarket sector are that the companies in this sector are some of the largest retailers in the world, they are significant emitters (their direct emissions account for 0.9% of UK carbon emissions, and some indications suggest that their indirect emissions account for ten times as much), and they are less heavily regulated that other sectors with comparable carbon footprints. The article concludes that the targets being set voluntarily by companies in this sector align with, or may even exceed, the climate change policy goals being set by national governments. Moreover, the article concludes that the companies targets are plausible and

  9. Understanding Pan-Arctic Tundra Vegetation Change Through Long-term Remotely Sensed Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, U.; Walker, D. A.; Bieniek, P.; Raynolds, M. K.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

    2012-12-01

    The goal of this paper is to present an analysis of the seasonality of tundra vegetation variability and change using long-term remotely sensed data as well as ground based measurements and reanalyses. An increase of Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation greenness has been documented using the remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Coherent variability between NDVI, springtime coastal sea ice (passive microwave) and land surface temperatures (AVHRR) has also been established. Satellite based snow and cloud cover data sets are being incorporated into this analysis. The Arctic tundra is divided into domains based on Treshnikov divisions that are modified based on floristic provinces. There is notable heterogeneity in Pan-Arctic vegetation and climate trends, which necessitates a regional analysis. This study uses remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2010. The GIMMS NDVI3g data has been corrected for biases during the spring and fall, with special focus on the Arctic. Trends of Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), and open water area are calculated for the Pan Arctic. Remotely sensed snow data trends suggest varying patterns throughout the Arctic and may in part explain the heterogeneous MaxNDVI trends. Standard climate data (station, reanalysis, and model data) and ground observations are used in the analysis to provide additional support for hypothesized mechanisms. Overall, we find that trends over the 30-year record are changing as evidenced by the following examples from recent years. The sea ice decline has increased in Eurasia and slowed in North America. The weekly AVHRR landsurface temperatures reveal that there has been summer cooling over Eurasia and that the warming over North America has slowed. The MaxNDVI rates of change have diverged between N. America and Eurasia

  10. Using Long-Term Passive Acoustic Observations to Identify Ecological Stresses: A Gulf of Mexico Sperm Whale Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorovskaia, N.; Li, K.; Drouant, G. J.; Ioup, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    The Gulf of Mexico marine mammal habitat is strongly impacted by anthropogenic industrial activities. By analyzing unique acoustic signals produced by different species of marine mammals, scientists can identify long-term population changes and their underlying causes. This study presents the results of the analysis of sperm whale acoustic clicks collected in the vicinity of the Deep Water Horizon accident site collected before and after the spill since 2001. The processing approach to regional acoustic data is two-leveled. First, sperm whale acoustic activity is analyzed from the standpoint of deriving annual abundance data using statistical methodology to compare with trends reported from NOAA visual surveys. Second, the features of individual clicks are extracted and analyzed to determine population structure: the animal's size, gender, and age group when possible. Proposed two-level processing workflow may provide useful data input for population forecasting models and may inform mitigation and recovery efforts not only for whales themselves but also for associated food-web constitutes. [This research was made possible in part by a grant from The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative.

  11. Long-term vegetation changes in a temperate forest impacted by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauren E. Oakes; Paul E. Hennon; Kevin L. O' Hara; Rodolfo Dirzo

    2014-01-01

    Pervasive forest mortality is expected to increase in future decades as a result of increasing temperatures. Climate-induced forest dieback can have consequences on ecosystem services, potentially mediated by changes in forest structure and understory community composition that emerge in response to tree death. Although many dieback events around the world have been...

  12. What factors influence the effectiveness of financial incentives on long-term natural resource management practice change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Swann

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial incentives are used by natural resource management organisations to encourage landholders to adopt sustainable practices where the outcomes on a farm scale may be negative or marginal. There is a growing body of research aimed at understanding why landholders do or do not agree to participate in financial incentive programs, however research that considers when and how financial incentives work to bring about long-term behaviour change is relatively immature. The purpose of this review is to answer the question ‘What factors influence the effectiveness of financial incentives on long-term natural resource management practice change?’ In synthesising the evidence, it was found that there are numerous characteristics of the practice change itself, along with the program design and implementation, which are important to understand long-term behaviour change. These include whether inexpensive maintenance or long-term funding is available; whether the changes are relatively simple to sustain; whether the program involves structural changes; whether there is land use rigidity; and whether the changes have resulting environmental benefits that are highly observable. Additionally, it is advisable for programs that use financial incentives to include the following program features: ongoing extension support and a focus on building relationship and trust; flexibility in how the practice change is applied; active landholder involvement from planning to evaluation; and contract length that is appropriate for the complexity of the NRM practice. These characteristics can be used to guide policy makers in their natural resource management investment decisions. There is a clear need for greatly increased monitoring and evaluation of existing programs, both during the program and after its conclusion, in order to more fully understand its long-term impacts and ultimate effectiveness. Finally, landholders undertaking a practice change generally

  13. Effect of seasonal and long-term changes in stress on sources of water to wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Thomas E.; Pollock, David W.

    1995-01-01

    The source of water to wells is ultimately the location where the water flowing to a well enters the boundary surface of the ground-water system . In ground-water systems that receive most of their water from areal recharge, the location of the water entering the system is at the water table . The area contributing recharge to a discharging well is the surface area that defines the location of the water entering the groundwater system. Water entering the system at the water table flows to the well and is eventually discharged from the well. Many State agencies are currently (1994) developing wellhead-protection programs. The thrust of some of these programs is to protect water supplies by determining the areas contributing recharge to water-supply wells and by specifying regulations to minimize the opportunity for contamination of the recharge water by activities at the land surface. In the analyses of ground-water flow systems, steady-state average conditions are frequently used to simplify the problem and make a solution tractable. Recharge is usually cyclic in nature, however, having seasonal cycles and longer term climatic cycles. A hypothetical system is quantitatively analyzed to show that, in many cases, these cyclic changes in the recharge rates apparently do not significantly affect the location and size of the areas contributing recharge to wells. The ratio of the mean travel time to the length of the cyclic stress period appears to indicate whether the transient effects of the cyclic stress must be explicitly represented in the analysis of contributing areas to wells. For the cases examined, if the ratio of the mean travel time to the period of the cyclic stress was much greater than one, then the transient area contributing recharge to wells was similar to the area calculated using an average steady-state condition. Noncyclic long-term transient changes in water use, however, and cyclic stresses on systems with ratios less than 1 can and do affect the

  14. Advice on a long-term strategy on energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    A study was conducted to examine how climate change would affect Canada's economy and environment, with a focus on what a low carbon future might look like for Canada over the next 45 years. Two questions formed the basis of this research that examined how Canada can protect and enhance its national interest with regard to energy and climate change issues between now and the mid-twenty first century and what Canada currently needs to do in order to achieve this. A scenario was developed as part of this study in order to demonstrate one way in which Canada can achieve a significant reduction in energy related GHG emissions by 2050. For illustrative purposes, it was necessary to have a quantifiable definition of what a significant reduction would look like, and therefore, it was decided that a long-term domestic reduction of energy-related GHG emissions by 60 per cent by 2050 would be used as it is roughly consistent with similar targets adopted or being considered by other OECD countries. The scope of this analysis covered energy-related GHG emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that result from the production and consumption of fossil fuels. The paper provided a summary of key findings from the study and discussed Canada's unique environmental challenges. Study characteristics, scope of the analysis and assumptions were also identified. A 60 per cent GHG reduction wedge diagram was provided to illustrate the scenario under consideration. Strategic priorities were also presented identifying where transformations will need to occur. These priorities include energy efficiency improvements, carbon capture and sequestration in the oil and gas sector, and electricity generation. The paper also provided several conclusions and next steps. One of the principal conclusions was that there can be a domestic solution to making significant GHG reductions by mid-century, but significant reductions can be achieved only if energy is used more efficiently and

  15. Diverse perspectives on governance on the very long term. Biodiversity, climatic change, CO2 storage, radioactive wastes, space wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeuf, Gilles; Gouyon, Pierre Henry; Rollinger, Francois; Besnus, Francois; Heriard Dubreuil, Gilles; Dahan, Amy; Alby, Fernand; Arnould, Jacques; Fabriol, Hubert; Hoummady, Moussa; Demarcq, Francois; Farret, Regis; Hubert, Philippe; Weber, Jacques; Charton, Patrick; Boissier, Fabrice; Lopez, Mirelle; Devisse, Jean-Jacques; Mathy, Sandrine; Hourcade, Jean-Charles; Le Roux, Xavier; Bourcier, Danielle; Roure, Francoise; Henry, Claude; Bartet, Jean Hughes; Calame, Mathieu; Biteau, Benoit; Kastler, Guy; Ducret, Pierre; Berest, Pierre; Charron, Sylvie; Clin, Francois; Gadbois, Serge; Gueritte, Michel; Heriard-Dubreuil, Bertrand; Laville, Bettina; Marie, Michel; Marignac, Yves; Ollagnon, Henry; Pelegrin, Flora; Roure, Francoise; Rouyer, Michel; Schellenberger, Thomas; Toussaint, Jean-Francois

    2013-03-01

    This bibliographical note contains the program of a workshop and a presentation of a book based on the contributions to this workshop proposed by experts, representatives of institutional bodies and associations, or local representatives. This workshop addressed the issue of the governance on the very long term with respect to the management of resources such as climate, geology, biodiversity or space. How to make a possible usage of these resources while ensuring their protection and durability? What are the solutions or new challenges are raising these usages on the very long term? The first part addresses the main challenges and ethical issues for governance on the very long term for each of the examined topics: biodiversity, climatic change, CO 2 storage, radioactive waste storage, and space debris). The next parts propose contributions from different origins and disciplines, present relevant data, and report evidences

  16. Long-term trends of changes in pine and oak foliar nitrogen metabolism in response to chronic nitrogen amendments at Harvard Forest, MA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakesh Minocha; Swathi A. Turlapati; Stephanie Long; William H. McDowell; Subhash C. Minocha

    2015-01-01

    We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements...

  17. Long-term changes of tropospheric NO2 over megacities derived from multiple satellite instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hilboll

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Tropospheric NO2, a key pollutant in particular in cities, has been measured from space since the mid-1990s by the GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 instruments. These data provide a unique global long-term dataset of tropospheric pollution. However, the observations differ in spatial resolution, local time of measurement, viewing geometry, and other details. All these factors can severely impact the retrieved NO2 columns. In this study, we present three ways to account for instrumental differences in trend analyses of the NO2 columns derived from satellite measurements, while preserving the individual instruments' spatial resolutions. For combining measurements from GOME and SCIAMACHY into one consistent time series, we develop a method to explicitly account for the instruments' difference in ground pixel size (40 × 320 km2 vs. 30 × 60 km2. This is especially important when analysing NO2 changes over small, localised sources like, e.g. megacities. The method is based on spatial averaging of the measured earthshine spectra and extraction of a spatial pattern of the resolution effect. Furthermore, two empirical corrections, which summarise all instrumental differences by including instrument-dependent offsets in a fitted trend function, are developed. These methods are applied to data from GOME and SCIAMACHY separately, to the combined time series, and to an extended dataset comprising also GOME-2 and OMI measurements. All approaches show consistent trends of tropospheric NO2 for a selection of areas on both regional and city scales, for the first time allowing consistent trend analysis of the full time series at high spatial resolution. Compared to previous studies, the longer study period leads to significantly reduced uncertainties. We show that measured tropospheric NO2 columns have been strongly increasing over China, the Middle East, and India, with values over east-central China tripling from 1996 to 2011. All parts of the developed world

  18. Study of long term structural and functional changes in medically controlled glaucoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achyut N Pandey

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available AIM:Prospectively analyze the long term structural and functional changes in patients of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG receiving medical therapy (beta blockers and non beta blockers. In this study an attempt has been made to evaluate whether medical reduction of IOP prevents or delays the progression of glaucomatous visual field loss and/or optic nerve damage in patients with open angle glaucoma.METHODS:Study conducted over a period of 27 months, at a tertiary eye care hospital including both eyes of 40 patients with POAG. Group 1 (20 patients, 40 eyes received beta-blockers, and Group 2 (20 patients, 40 eyes received non-beta-blockers. Each patient underwent intraocular pressure measurement, best corrected visual acuity, slit-lamp, fundus examination, gonioscopy, central corneal thickness, visual field assessment by Humphrey automated perimetry and retinal nerve fibre layer thickness by Stratus optical coherence tomography at baseline and at two subsequent visits. The average time interval between each visit was 10-11 months. The statistical analysis was done using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA. Post-hoc test, using tukey’ method were adopted. Probablity (P value of 0.05 or less was considered to be statistically significant.RESULTS:A total of 80 eyes of 40 patients of POAG were enrolled, 24 males, 16 females, age group 50-80 years. In both beta and non beta blocker group, reduction (improvement in mean IOP from initial levels to the levels achieved at the 2nd and 3rd visits was statistically significant. One way ANOVA (df=2, fisher f value=11.64, P=0.000, one way ANOVA (df=3, fisher f value=35.61, P=0.000. Both mean deviation (MD and pattern standard deviation (PSD in both beta and non beta blockers at different visits were not statistically significant. Retinal nerve fibre layer thickness (RNFL -only mean inferior retinal nerve fibre layer, the difference between the mean value in beta and non beta blocker groupwere statistically

  19. Long-Term Changes of Tropospheric Trace Gases over Pakistan Derived From Multiple Satellite Instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeb, Naila; Fahim Khokhar, Muhammad; Murtaza, Rabbia; Noreen, Asma; Khalid, Tameem

    2016-07-01

    Air pollution is the expected key environmental issue of Pakistan in coming years due to its ongoing rapid economic growth and this trend suggests only worst air quality over time. In 2014, World bank reported the Pakistan's urban air quality among the most severe in the world and intimated the government to make improvement in air quality as a priority policy agenda. In addition it is recommended to strengthen the institutional and technical capacity of organizations responsible for air quality management. Therefore, the study is designed to put efforts in highlighting air quality issues. The study will provide first database for tropospheric trace gases over Pakistan. The study aims to analyse tropospheric concentrations of CO, TOC, NO2 and HCHO over Pakistan using multisensory data from January 2005 to January 2014. Spatio-temporal and seasonal variability of tropospheric trace gases is observed over the decade to explore long term trend. Hotspots are identified to see variation of species with latitude and to highlight possible sources of trace gases over the Pakistan. High concentrations of trace gases are mainly observed over the Punjab region, which may be attributed to its metropolitan importance. It is the major agricultural, industrialized and urbanized (nearly 60% of the Pakistan's population) sector of the country. Overall significant decreasing trend of CO is identified by MOPITT with relative change of 12.4%. Tropospheric ozone column (TOC) showed insignificant increasing trend with temporal increase of 10.4% whereas NO2 exhibited a significant temporal increase of about 28%. For formaldehyde (HCHO), an increase of about 3.8% is calculated for SCIAMACHY data. Well defined seasonal cycles for these trace gases are observed over the whole study period. CO concentrations showed peak in winter months (November/December/January/February) and dip in the months of Summer/Monsoon (June/July/August). In spite of CO, TCO increases gradually in March and peaks

  20. Changes in the long-term delayed response of platinum self-powered detector with irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parent, G.; Serdula, K.J.; Eng, P.

    1989-01-01

    Two long-term delayed response characteristics have been observed for platinum, Pt, detectors in the Gentilly-2 600 MW(e) CANDU PHWR reactor. The first effect is a dip in the signal two to three hours after a shutdown, due to the (n,beta) interactions of Mn-55 and Ni-64 which exist as impurities in the detector assembly. The second effect is an increase of the delayed fraction of the signal. The low neutron absorption cross-section of Pt-196 combined with the conversion of the Pt-194 and Pt-195 results in build-up of the Pt-196. The long half-lives associated with the beta-emission in the transmutation of Pt-196 to Hg-198 or Hg-199 give rise to the observed long-term delayed response

  1. Accelerated long-term assessment of thermal and chemical stability of bio-based phase change materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thermal energy storage (TES) systems incorporated with phase change materials (PCMs) have potential applications to control energy use by building envelopes. However, it is essential to evaluate long term performance of the PCMs and cost effectiveness prior to full scale implementation. For this rea...

  2. 78 FR 32001 - Public Notice for a Change in Use of Aeronautical Property and Long-Term Lease Approval at...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-28

    ... International Airport approved Airport Layout Plan (ALP). There is to be no sale or transfer of property rights... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration Public Notice for a Change in Use of Aeronautical Property and Long-Term Lease Approval at Harrisburg International Airport (MDT), Middletown, PA...

  3. The analysis of long-term changes in plant communities using large databases: the effect of stratified resampling.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haveman, R.; Janssen, J.A.M.

    2008-01-01

    Question: Releves in large phytosociological databases used for analysing long-term changes in plant communities are biased towards easily accessible places and species-rich stands. How does this bias influence trend analysis of floristic composition within a priori determined vegetation types and

  4. Long-term outcome of biopsy-proven, frequently relapsing minimal-change nephrotic syndrome in children.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kyrieleis, H.A.; Lowik, M.M.; Pronk, I.; Cruysberg, J.R.M.; Kremer, J.A.M.; Oyen, W.J.G.; Heuvel, L.P.W.J. van den; Wetzels, J.F.M.; Levtchenko, E.N.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Frequently relapsing and steroid-dependent minimal-change nephrotic syndrome (MCNS) that originates in childhood can persist after puberty in >20% of patients. These patients require immunosuppressive treatment during several decades of their life. We examined long-term

  5. The changes in perception of visual illusions during long-term isolation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šikl, Radovan; Šimeček, Michal; Lukavský, Jiří

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 2009, č. 38 (2009), s. 31-32 ISSN 0301-0066. [European Conference on Visual Perception. 24.08.2009-28.08.2009, Regensburg] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA406/09/2003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : long-term isolation * geometrical illusions * perspective Subject RIV: AN - Psychology http://www.perceptionweb.com/abstract.cgi?id=v090766

  6. Long-term effects of a climate change teaching campaign – a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cruys-Bagger, Søren Ib; Daugbjerg, Peer

    The authors perform in association with School of Education, Aarhus University an evaluation of the long term effects of the campaign visit. We are investigating the sustainable effect of science campaigns for schools by collecting teachers reflection on the value of the visit of “Klimakaravanen”...... of doing experiments c) Relations to technological companies and the civil society d) Skills of planning, performing and evaluating teaching...

  7. Long-term changes of macular retinal thickness after idiopathic macular hole surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Yang

    2014-12-01

    .40,291.58±18.97μmin stage A significantly decreased compared to that of the corresponding areas in stage C(276.08±32.39, 278.75±10.19μm(PCONCLUSION: SD-OCT is a convenient tool for the observation of macular regional changes after macular hole surgery. Macular RT had persistent changes after vitrectomy on eyes with macular hole by SD-OCT. ILM peeling may have caused microstructural changes in wide areas of the macular region after PPV surgery. More support and evidence were provided to the further study of the long-term observation for the structural and function of macular after macular hole surgery.

  8. Estuaries of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem: Laboratories of Long-term Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingard, G.L.; Hudley, J.W.; Marshall, F.E.

    2010-01-01

    Restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem of south Florida is arguably the largest ecosystem restoration effort to date. A critical goal is to return more natural patterns of flow through south Florida wetlands and into the estuaries, but development of realistic targets requires acknowledgement that ecosystems are constantly evolving and changing in response to a variety of natural and human-driven stressors. Examination of ecosystems over long periods of time requires analysis of sedimentary records, such as those deposited in the wetlands and estuaries of south Florida. As sediment accumulates, it preserves information about the animals and plants that lived in the environment and the physical, chemical, and climatic conditions present. One of the methods used to interpret this information is paleoecology-the study of the ecology of previously living organisms. Paleoecologic investigations of south Florida estuaries provide quantitative data on historical variability of salinity and trends that may be applied to statistical models to estimate historical freshwater flow. These data provide a unique context to estimate future ecosystem response to changes related to restoration activities and predicted changes in sea level and temperature, thus increasing the likelihood of successful and sustainable ecosystem restoration.

  9. Long-term changes in childhood malnutrition are associated with long-term changes in maternal BMI: evidence from Bangladesh, 1996-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Md Tanvir; Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J; Williams, Gail M; Mamun, Abdullah A

    2016-10-01

    Nutritional transition (from under- to overnutrition) among women of reproductive age (15-49 y) is becoming increasingly common in many developing countries, including Bangladesh. However, the influence of this transition on the nutritional status of children malnutrition in U5s has changed over time. We analyzed data assembled from 5 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1996 and 2011 in Bangladesh to describe the nutritional status of 28,941 U5s and their mothers. A Poisson regression model was used to examine the associations between maternal BMI and stunting, underweight, and wasting in U5s over time. A nutritional transition among mothers of U5s was observed between 1996 and 2011. The height- or length-for-age and weight-for-age z score distributions of U5s showed consistent improvement; however, there was no indication of a nutritional transition. An interaction was found between maternal BMI categorized as underweight [BMI (kg/m 2 ) malnutrition in children. A nutritional transition among U5s has yet to occur in Bangladesh. However, our results indicate that improvement in maternal BMI in the past 15 y was accompanied by a reduction in malnutrition in U5s. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  10. Long-term changes in cognitive bias and coping response as a result of chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren eChaby

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Animals that experience adverse events in early life often have life-long changes to their physiology and behavior. Long-term effects of stress during early life have been studied extensively, but less attention has been given to the consequences of negative experiences solely during the adolescent phase. Adolescence is a particularly sensitive period of life when regulation of the glucocorticoid stress hormone response matures and specific regions in the brain undergo considerable change. Aversive experiences during this time might, therefore, be expected to generate long-term consequences for the adult phenotype. Here we investigated the long-term effects of exposure to chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence on adult decision making, coping response, cognitive bias, and exploratory behavior in rats. Rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (e.g. isolation, crowding, cage tilt were compared to control animals that were maintained in standard, predictable conditions throughout development. Unpredictable stress during adolescence resulted in a suite of long-term behavioral and cognitive changes including a negative cognitive bias (F1,12 = 5.000, P < 0.05, altered coping response (T1,14 = 2.216, P = 0.04, and accelerated decision making (T1,14 = 3.245, P = 0.01. Exposure to chronic stress during adolescence also caused a short-term increase in boldness behaviors; in a novel object test 15 days after the last stressor, animals exposed to chronic unpredictable stress had decreased latencies to leave a familiar shelter and approach a novel object (T1,14 = 2.240, P = 0.04; T1,14 = 2.419, P = 0.03, respectively. The results showed that stress during adolescence has long-term impacts on behavior and cognition that affect the interpretation of ambiguous stimuli, behavioral response to adverse events, and how animals make decisions. Stress during adolescence also induced short-term changes in the way animals moved around a novel environment.

  11. Long-term changes in cognitive bias and coping response as a result of chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaby, Lauren E; Cavigelli, Sonia A; White, Amanda; Wang, Kayllie; Braithwaite, Victoria A

    2013-01-01

    Animals that experience adverse events in early life often have life-long changes to their physiology and behavior. Long-term effects of stress during early life have been studied extensively, but less attention has been given to the consequences of negative experiences solely during the adolescent phase. Adolescence is a particularly sensitive period of life when regulation of the glucocorticoid "stress" hormone response matures and specific regions in the brain undergo considerable change. Aversive experiences during this time might, therefore, be expected to generate long-term consequences for the adult phenotype. Here we investigated the long-term effects of exposure to chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence on adult decision-making, coping response, cognitive bias, and exploratory behavior in rats. Rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (e.g., isolation, crowding, cage tilt) were compared to control animals that were maintained in standard, predictable conditions throughout development. Unpredictable stress during adolescence resulted in a suite of long-term behavioral and cognitive changes including a negative cognitive bias [F (1, 12) = 5.000, P chronic stress during adolescence also caused a short-term increase in boldness behaviors; in a novel object test 15 days after the last stressor, animals exposed to chronic unpredictable stress had decreased latencies to leave a familiar shelter and approach a novel object [T (1, 14) = 2.240, P = 0.04; T (1, 14) = 2.419, P = 0.03, respectively]. The results showed that stress during adolescence has long-term impacts on behavior and cognition that affect the interpretation of ambiguous stimuli, behavioral response to adverse events, and how animals make decisions.

  12. Length change of the alloys Waspaloy and Inconel 718 after long-term annealing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinzel, Svenja

    2016-01-01

    Within the scope of this work the contraction behavior of Ni-based superalloy Waspaloy could in detail be referred to a combination of different microstructural changes and the results could partially be transferred to Ni-Fe-based alloy Inconel 718. Isothermal annealing of sample rods at temperatures between 450 C and 750 C induces an average relative length contraction of about -2.10"-"4. It is apparent that contraction is more pronounced for lower temperatures (-3.10"-"4 at 550 C) than for higher ones (-1.10"-"4 at 750 C). Within the first 300 hours of annealing the contraction reaches about 70-75% of the value measured after 10,000 hours. This means the major part of the effect takes place at the beginning of long term annealing but even after 10,000 hours no saturation occurs. On the basis of lattice parameter measurements it could be found that within the first 300 hours a significant lattice parameter decrease of matrix and γ"' phase emerged. Longer annealing time does not cause further lattice contraction. This sample behavior can be explained by temperature dependence of phase fractions and phase compositions. Thermodynamic calculations as well as stereological analysis of micrographs show a decrease of stable γ"'-phase content with increasing temperature. In parallel, TEM-EDS measurements and calculated phase fractions show concentration fluctuations due to the different precipitate fraction, which cause contraction of the lattice parameter. Furthermore, within the first 100 hours at temperatures up to 650 C the formation or Ni-Cr rich domains could be observed. As these domains exhibit a smaller lattice parameter than the matrix they contribute to the more pronounced contraction at lower temperatures. While XRD measurements point to the formation of Ni_3Cr, TEM-EDS measurements reveal a composition of (Ni,Co)_2Cr. Stress relief heat treatment at higher temperatures (815 C) after annealing shows that the effect of contraction is reversible. It causes an

  13. Long-term changes of small mammal communities in heterogenous landscapes of Central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zárybnická, M.; Riegert, J.; Bejček, V.; Sedláček, F.; Šťastný, K.; Šindelář, J.; Heroldová, M.; Vilímová, J.; Zima, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 6 (2017), č. článku 89. ISSN 1612-4642 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : Habitat diversity * Population dynamics * Community structure * Small mammal * Weather * Masting Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 1.264, year: 2016

  14. Geosphere Stability for long-term isolation of radioactive waste. Case study for hydrological change with earthquakes and faulting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niwa, Masakazu

    2016-01-01

    Appropriate estimation and safety assessment for long-term changes in geological environment are essential to an improvement of reliability for geological disposal. Specifically, study on faults is important for understanding regional groundwater flow as well as an assessment as a trigger of future earthquakes. Here, possibility of changes in permeability of faulted materials induced by earthquakes was examined based on monitoring data of groundwater pressure before and after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. (author)

  15. Defining ecologically relevant scales for spatial protection with long-term data on an endangered seabird and local prey availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherley, Richard B; Botha, Philna; Underhill, Les G; Ryan, Peter G; van Zyl, Danie; Cockcroft, Andrew C; Crawford, Robert J M; Dyer, Bruce M; Cook, Timothée R

    2017-12-01

    Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, separating the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of nontarget predators is difficult, often because prey availability estimates on appropriate scales are lacking. Understanding how prey abundance at different spatial scales links to population change can help integrate the needs of nontarget predators into fisheries management by defining ecologically relevant areas for spatial protection. We investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of the Bank Cormorant (Phalacrocorax neglectus), a range-restricted endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily fished west coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii). Using Bayesian state-space modeled cormorant counts at 3 colonies, 22 years of fisheries-independent data on local lobster abundance, and generalized additive modeling, we determined the spatial scale pertinent to these relationships in areas with different lobster availability. Cormorant numbers responded positively to lobster availability in the regions with intermediate and high abundance but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure had depleted lobster stocks. The relationships were strongest when lobsters 20-30 km offshore of the colony were considered, a distance greater than the Bank Cormorant's foraging range when breeding, and may have been influenced by prey availability for nonbreeding birds, prey switching, or prey ecology. Our results highlight the importance of considering the scale of ecological relationships in marine spatial planning and suggest that designing spatial protection around focal species can benefit marine predators across their full life cycle. We propose the precautionary implementation of small-scale marine protected areas, followed by robust assessment and adaptive-management, to confirm population-level benefits for the cormorants, their prey, and the wider ecosystem, without

  16. Long-term oil contamination causes similar changes in microbial communities of two distinct soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Jingqiu; Wang, Jie; Jiang, Dalin; Wang, Michael Cai; Huang, Yi

    2015-12-01

    Since total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) are toxic and persistent in environments, studying the impact of oil contamination on microbial communities in different soils is vital to oil production engineering, effective soil management and pollution control. This study analyzed the impact of oil contamination on the structure, activity and function in carbon metabolism of microbial communities of Chernozem soil from Daqing oil field and Cinnamon soil from Huabei oil field through both culture-dependent techniques and a culture-independent technique-pyrosequencing. Results revealed that pristine microbial communities in these two soils presented disparate patterns, where Cinnamon soil showed higher abundance of alkane, (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) PAHs and TPH degraders, number of cultivable microbes, bacterial richness, bacterial biodiversity, and stronger microbial activity and function in carbon metabolism than Chernozem soil. It suggested that complicated properties of microbes and soils resulted in the difference in soil microbial patterns. However, the changes of microbial communities caused by oil contamination were similar in respect of two dominant phenomena. Firstly, the microbial community structures were greatly changed, with higher abundance, higher bacterial biodiversity, occurrence of Candidate_division_BRC1 and TAO6, disappearance of BD1-5 and Candidate_division_OD1, dominance of Streptomyces, higher percentage of hydrocarbon-degrading groups, and lower percentage of nitrogen-transforming groups. Secondly, microbial activity and function in carbon metabolism were significantly enhanced. Based on the characteristics of microbial communities in the two soils, appropriate strategy for in situ bioremediation was provided for each oil field. This research underscored the usefulness of combination of culture-dependent techniques and next-generation sequencing techniques both to unravel the microbial patterns and understand the ecological impact of

  17. Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flesch, Aaron D; Rosen, Philip C; Holm, Peter

    2017-12-01

    Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%-285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1-1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2-4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (T max ) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with T max were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change

  18. A prototype system for multilingual data discovery of International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) Network data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristin Vanderbilt; John H. Porter; Sheng-Shan Lu; Nic Bertrand; David Blankman; Xuebing Guo; Honglin He; Don Henshaw; Karpjoo Jeong; Eun-Shik Kim; Chau-Chin Lin; Margaret O' Brien; Takeshi Osawa; Éamonn Ó Tuama; Wen Su; Haibo Yang

    2017-01-01

    Shared ecological data have the potential to revolutionize ecological research just as shared genetic sequence data have done for biological research. However, for ecological data to be useful, it must first be discoverable. A broad-scale research topic may require that a researcher be able to locate suitable data from a variety of global, regional and national data...

  19. Barriers and Facilitators to Implementing a Change Initiative in Long-Term Care Using the INTERACT® Quality Improvement Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tappen, Ruth M; Wolf, David G; Rahemi, Zahra; Engstrom, Gabriella; Rojido, Carolina; Shutes, Jill M; Ouslander, Joseph G

    Implementation of major organizational change initiatives presents a challenge for long-term care leadership. Implementation of the INTERACT® (Interventions to Reduce Acute Care Transfers) quality improvement program, designed to improve the management of acute changes in condition and reduce unnecessary emergency department visits and hospitalizations of nursing home residents, serves as an example to illustrate the facilitators and barriers to major change in long-term care. As part of a larger study of the impact of INTERACT® on rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations, staff of 71 nursing homes were called monthly to follow-up on their progress and discuss successful facilitating strategies and any challenges and barriers they encountered during the yearlong implementation period. Themes related to barriers and facilitators were identified. Six major barriers to implementation were identified: the magnitude and complexity of the change (35%), instability of facility leadership (27%), competing demands (40%), stakeholder resistance (49%), scarce resources (86%), and technical problems (31%). Six facilitating strategies were also reported: organization-wide involvement (68%), leadership support (41%), use of administrative authority (14%), adequate training (66%), persistence and oversight on the part of the champion (73%), and unfolding positive results (14%). Successful introduction of a complex change such as the INTERACT® quality improvement program in a long-term care facility requires attention to the facilitators and barriers identified in this report from those at the frontline.

  20. A Review of Infectious Agents in Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) and Their Long-Term Ecological Relevance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Anna C; Patyk, Kelly A; Nol, Pauline; Atwood, Todd; Hueffer, Karsten; Duncan, Colleen

    2015-09-01

    Disease was a listing criterion for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 2008; it is therefore important to evaluate the current state of knowledge and identify any information gaps pertaining to diseases in polar bears. We conducted a systematic literature review focused on infectious agents and associated health impacts identified in polar bears. Overall, the majority of reports in free-ranging bears concerned serosurveys or fecal examinations with little to no information on associated health effects. In contrast, most reports documenting illness or pathology referenced captive animals and diseases caused by etiologic agents not representative of exposure opportunities in wild bears. As such, most of the available infectious disease literature has limited utility as a basis for development of future health assessment and management plans. Given that ecological change is a considerable risk facing polar bear populations, future work should focus on cumulative effects of multiple stressors that could impact polar bear population dynamics.

  1. Tree ring imprints of long-term changes in climate in western ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    2009-10-26

    Oct 26, 2009 ... tree-ring sampling sites poses difficulty in calibrating tree-ring data against climate data especially precipitation for its strong spatial .... drained soils are its primary ecological requirement. The .... rapid radiation loss at night.

  2. Long-term structural retinal changes in patients with optic neuritis related to multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maria Rene; Roar, Malte; Sejbaek, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (56 vs 67 μm, P=0.01). In an age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model, lower inferior and temporal RNFL were associated with a higher risk of ON (odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.01-2.41] and OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.10-2.77] per 10 μm decrement in RNFL......PURPOSE: To evaluate the long-term structural and functional outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) with and without a history of optic neuritis (ON). METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of 82 patients diagnosed with MS between 2000 and 2006 from a tertiary hospital center...

  3. Long-term multifactorial climate change impacts on mesofaunal biomass and nitrogen content

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Mette Vestergård; Dyrnum, Kristine; Michelsen, Anders

    2015-01-01

    increased at elevated CO2, or tended do so. In contrast, enchytraeid N content decreased at elevated CO2. Soil microbial biomass N pool and litter C:N ratio also increased with elevated CO2, which suggests that mite biomasses are more coupled to microbial biomass, whereas enchytraeid biomass to a larger...... extent is governed by litter nitrogen concentration, i.e. litter quality. Structural equation modelling confirmed the positive coupling between soil microbial N content and oribatid biomass and further between oribatid and mesostigmatic biomass. The SEM also revealed a negative relationship between...... microbial N content and enchytraeid biomass. The biomass of all mesofaunal groups was reduced by spring drought, especially when combined with warming. Enchytraeid and especially collembolan biomass suffered greater drought declines than mite biomasses. We conclude that under long-term elevated CO2 exposure...

  4. Long-term structural retinal changes in patients with optic neuritis related to multiple sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Maria Rene; Roar, Malte; Sejbaek, Tobias; Illes, Zsolt; Grauslund, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the long-term structural and functional outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) with and without a history of optic neuritis (ON). Methods This was a cross-sectional study of 82 patients diagnosed with MS between 2000 and 2006 from a tertiary hospital center in Denmark. Patients gave a self-reported history of ON, and functional (visual acuity and color vision) and structural (spectra domain optical coherence tomography) markers of vision were tested. Results Median age and MS duration at the time of the clinical examination were 49.9 years (range 30.7–72.6 years) and 13 years (range 9–15 years), respectively. ON was not associated with impairment of visual acuity or color vision. Twenty-three patients had a history of ON in at least one eye. Compared to non-affected patients, these had a lower inferior (109 vs 113 μm, P=0.04) and temporal retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (56 vs 67 μm, P=0.01). In an age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model, lower inferior and temporal RNFL were associated with a higher risk of ON (odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.01–2.41] and OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.10–2.77] per 10 μm decrement in RNFL thickness, respectively). Twenty patients had a history of ON in one eye. Compared to the non-affected eye, this eye had a lower RNFL (109 vs 115 μm, P=0.04) and a higher central retinal thickness/mean RNFL ratio (2.7 vs 2.4, P=0.04). Conclusion Although patients with long-term MS and a previous history of ON did not have any functional loss of vision, structural neurodegeneration could be demonstrated in the affected eye. PMID:28860702

  5. Long-term structural retinal changes in patients with optic neuritis related to multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Maria Rene; Roar, Malte; Sejbaek, Tobias; Illes, Zsolt; Grauslund, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term structural and functional outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) with and without a history of optic neuritis (ON). This was a cross-sectional study of 82 patients diagnosed with MS between 2000 and 2006 from a tertiary hospital center in Denmark. Patients gave a self-reported history of ON, and functional (visual acuity and color vision) and structural (spectra domain optical coherence tomography) markers of vision were tested. Median age and MS duration at the time of the clinical examination were 49.9 years (range 30.7-72.6 years) and 13 years (range 9-15 years), respectively. ON was not associated with impairment of visual acuity or color vision. Twenty-three patients had a history of ON in at least one eye. Compared to non-affected patients, these had a lower inferior (109 vs 113 μm, P =0.04) and temporal retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness (56 vs 67 μm, P =0.01). In an age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model, lower inferior and temporal RNFL were associated with a higher risk of ON (odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.01-2.41] and OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.10-2.77] per 10 μm decrement in RNFL thickness, respectively). Twenty patients had a history of ON in one eye. Compared to the non-affected eye, this eye had a lower RNFL (109 vs 115 μm, P =0.04) and a higher central retinal thickness/mean RNFL ratio (2.7 vs 2.4, P =0.04). Although patients with long-term MS and a previous history of ON did not have any functional loss of vision, structural neurodegeneration could be demonstrated in the affected eye.

  6. Short- and long-term eating habit modification predicts weight change in overweight, postmenopausal women: results from the WOMAN study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barone Gibbs, Bethany; Kinzel, Laura S; Pettee Gabriel, Kelley; Chang, Yue-Fang; Kuller, Lewis H

    2012-09-01

    Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors rather than energy intake may be an alternative strategy. In addition, important behaviors might differ for short- vs long-term weight control. Our aim was to describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months. We performed secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight-loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up. We studied 481 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study. We measured changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (Pstudies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Neural Rhythms of Change: Long-Term Improvement after Successful Treatment in Children with Disruptive Behavior Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Woltering

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Neural changes were investigated for children with disruptive behavior problems one year after a treatment program ended. Thirty-nine children and their parents visited the research lab before, after, and a year after treatment ended. During those lab visits, electroencephalography (EEG was recorded during a challenging Go/No-go task. Treatment consisted of intensive 14-week combined cognitive behavioral therapy and parent management training sessions. For the analysis, participants were divided into long-term improvers (IMPs and long-term nonimprovers (NIMPs based on changes in their externalizing problem scores. The results showed early no-go theta power (4–8 Hz, 100–250 ms decreased for long-term IMPs compared to NIMPs. When participants were divided based on changes in their comorbid internalizing symptoms, effects were stronger and reductions in theta power were found for early as well as later phases (250–650 ms. We provided preliminary evidence that theta power is a useful neural measure to trace behavioral change linked to improved self-regulation even up to a year after treatment ended. Results may have implications for the characterization of children with disruptive behavior problems and may lead to the development of novel markers of treatment success.

  8. Detecting changes in real-world objects: The relationship between visual long-term memory and change blindness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Timothy F; Konkle, Talia; Oliva, Aude; Alvarez, George A

    2009-01-01

    A large body of literature has shown that observers often fail to notice significant changes in visual scenes, even when these changes happen right in front of their eyes. For instance, people often fail to notice if their conversation partner is switched to another person, or if large background objects suddenly disappear.1,2 These 'change blindness' studies have led to the inference that the amount of information we remember about each item in a visual scene may be quite low.1 However, in recent work we have demonstrated that long-term memory is capable of storing a massive number of visual objects with significant detail about each item.3 In the present paper we attempt to reconcile these findings by demonstrating that observers do not experience 'change blindness' with the real world objects used in our previous experiment if they are given sufficient time to encode each item. The results reported here suggest that one of the major causes of change blindness for real-world objects is a lack of encoding time or attention to each object (see also refs. 4 and 5).

  9. Long-term and realistic global change manipulations had low impact on diversity of soil biota in temperate heathland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmstrup, Martin; Damgaard, Christian; Schmidt, Inger K

    2017-01-01

    C:N ratio. After eight years of treatment, however, the CO2-increased litter C:N ratio did not influence the diversity in any of the four fauna groups. The number of significant correlations between treatments, food source quality, and soil biota diversities was reduced from six to three after two...... and eight years, respectively. These results suggest a remarkable resilience within the soil biota against global climate change treatments in the long term....

  10. Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large

  11. Long-Term Plasticity of Astrocytic Metabotropic Neurotransmitter Receptors Driven by Changes in Neuronal Activity in Hippocampal Slices

    OpenAIRE

    Xie, Xiaoqiao

    2011-01-01

    In addition to synaptic communication between neurons, there is now strong evidence for neuron-to-astrocyte receptor signaling in the brain. During trains of action potentials or repetitive stimulation, neurotransmitter spills out of the synapse to activate astrocytic Gq protein-coupled receptors (Gq GPCRs). To date, very little is known about the ability of astrocytic receptors to exhibit plasticity as a result of long-term changes in neuronal firing rates. Here we describe for the first tim...

  12. Perceived stress and anhedonia predict short-and long-term weight change, respectively, in healthy adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Mostafa; Thearle, Marie S; Krakoff, Jonathan; Gluck, Marci E

    2016-04-01

    Perceived stress; emotional eating; anhedonia; depression and dietary restraint, hunger, and disinhibition have been studied as risk factors for obesity. However, the majority of studies have been cross-sectional and the directionality of these relationships remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess their impact on future weight change. Psychological predictors of weight change in short- (6month) and long-term (>1year) periods were studied in 65 lean and obese individuals in two cohorts. Subjects participated in studies of food intake and metabolism that did not include any type of medication or weight loss interventions. They completed psychological questionnaires at baseline and weight change was monitored at follow-up visits. At six months, perceived stress predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.23, P=0.02). There was a significant interaction (r(2)=.38, P=0.009) between perceived stress and positive emotional eating, such that higher scores in both predicted greater weight gain, while those with low stress but high emotional eating scores lost weight. For long-term, higher anhedonia scores predicted weight gain (r(2)=0.24, P=0.04). Depression moderated these effects such that higher scores in both predicted weight gain but higher depression and lower anhedonia scores predicted weight loss. There are different behavioral determinants for short- and long-term weight change. Targeting perceived stress may help with short-term weight loss while depression and anhedonia may be better targets for long-term weight regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Evidence of long-term change in zonal wind in the tropical lower mesosphere: Observations and model simulations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ratnam, M. V.; Kumar, G. K.; Rao, N. V.; Murthy, B. V. K.; Laštovička, Jan; Qian, L.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 2 (2013), s. 397-401 ISSN 0094-8276 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : mesosphere * zonal wind * long-term trends * TIME-GCM * climate change Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.456, year: 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50158/abstract

  14. Changes in water and beverage intake and long-term weight changes: results from three prospective cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, A; Malik, V S; Hao, T; Willett, W C; Mozaffarian, D; Hu, F B

    2013-10-01

    To examine the long-term relationship between changes in water and beverage intake and weight change. Prospective cohort studies of 50013 women aged 40-64 years in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS, 1986-2006), 52987 women aged 27-44 years in the NHS II (1991-2007) and 21988 men aged 40-64 years in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2006) without obesity and chronic diseases at baseline. We assessed the association of weight change within each 4-year interval, with changes in beverage intakes and other lifestyle behaviors during the same period. Multivariate linear regression with robust variance and accounting for within-person repeated measures were used to evaluate the association. Results across the three cohorts were pooled by an inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Participants gained an average of 1.45 kg (5th to 95th percentile: -1.87 to 5.46) within each 4-year period. After controlling for age, baseline body mass index and changes in other lifestyle behaviors (diet, smoking habits, exercise, alcohol, sleep duration, TV watching), each 1 cup per day increment of water intake was inversely associated with weight gain within each 4-year period (-0.13 kg; 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.17 to -0.08). The associations for other beverages were: sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) (0.36 kg; 95% CI: 0.24-0.48), fruit juice (0.22 kg; 95% CI: 0.15-0.28), coffee (-0.14 kg; 95% CI: -0.19 to -0.09), tea (-0.03 kg; 95% CI: -0.05 to -0.01), diet beverages (-0.10 kg; 95% CI: -0.14 to -0.06), low-fat milk (0.02 kg; 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.09) and whole milk (0.02 kg; 95% CI: -0.06 to 0.10). We estimated that replacement of 1 serving per day of SSBs by 1 cup per day of water was associated with 0.49 kg (95% CI: 0.32-0.65) less weight gain over each 4-year period, and the replacement estimate of fruit juices by water was 0.35 kg (95% CI: 0.23-0.46). Substitution of SSBs or fruit juices by other beverages (coffee, tea, diet beverages, low-fat and whole milk) were all

  15. Long-term herbarium records reveal temperature-dependent changes in flowering phenology in the southeastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Isaac W.; Schwartz, Mark D.

    2015-03-01

    In recent years, a growing body of evidence has emerged indicating that the relationship between flowering phenology and climate may differ throughout various portions of the growing season. These differences have resulted in long-term changes in flowering synchrony that may alter the quantity and diversity of pollinator attention to many species, as well as altering food availability to pollenivorous and nectarivorous animal species. However, long-term multi-season records of past flowering timing have primarily focused on temperate environments. In contrast, changes in flowering phenology within humid subtropical environments such as the southeastern USA remain poorly documented. This research uses herbarium-based methods to examine changes in flowering time across 19,328 samples of spring-, summer-, and autumn-flowering plants in the southeastern USA from the years 1951 to 2009. In this study, species that flower near the onset of the growing season were found to advance under increasing mean March temperatures (-3.391 days/°C, p = 0.022). No long-term advances in early spring flowering or spring temperature were detected during this period, corroborating previous phenological assessments for the southeastern USA. However, late spring through mid-summer flowering exhibited delays in response to higher February temperatures (over 0.1.85 days/°C, p ≤ 0.041 in all cases). Thus, it appears that flowering synchrony may undergo significant restructuring in response to warming spring temperatures, even in humid subtropical environments.

  16. Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

    2017-06-01

    Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. PKMζ inhibition prevents the metaplastic change induced by conditioned taste aversion on insular cortex long-term potentiation in vivo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ángeles-Durán, Sandybel; Ramos-Languren, Laura E; Escobar, Martha L

    2012-01-01

    The activity history of a given neuron or pathway has been suggested to influence its future responses to synaptic inputs. In particular, training in several learning tasks produces a metaplastic change, that is, a change in the ability to induce subsequent synaptic plasticity. Experimental evidence shows that the maintenance of long term memory and long-term potentiation (LTP) requires the persistent action of the atypical protein kinase Cisoform, protein kinase M ζ (PKM ζ ). Recent work has demonstrated that the inactivation of PKM ζ in the insular cortex (IC) abolishes conditioned taste aversion (CTA) long term memory. Our previous studies in the IC have demonstrated that the induction of LTP in the basolateral amygdaloid nucleus (Bla)-IC projection previous to CTA training enhances the retention of this task. Moreover, recently, we have observed that CTA training blocks the subsequent induction of LTP in the Bla-IC projection. The aim of the present study was to investigate the participation of PKM ζon the CTA-dependent modification of the ability to induce subsequent LTP in the Bla-IC projection in vivo . Thus, we have delivered high-frequency stimulation in the Bla-IC projection in order to induce in vivo IC-LTP in the rats that underwent or did not have an impairment of CTA retention due to the intracortical administration of the selective PKM ζ pseudosubstrate inhibitory peptide, ZIP. Our results show that the microinfusion of ZIP into the IC of the behaving rats impairs long-term memory of CTA and prevents its effects on IC-LTP. These results indicate that PKM ζ is a key component of the cellular mechanisms necessary for the persistence of lasting memory traces as well as for those underlying metaplastic changes in neocortex, contributing to the persistence of aversive memories.

  18. A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, V. R.

    2011-12-01

    On the premise that fast climate fluctuations up to and including the 11-year solar cycle play a negligible role in long-term climate forecasting, we remove these from the 160-year HADCRUT3 global land-sea temperature record and model the result as the sum of a log-raised-exponential (log(b+exp(t))) and two sine waves of respective periods 56 and 75 years coinciding in phase in 1925. The latter two can be understood equivalently as a 62-year-period "carrier" modulated with a 440-year period that peaked in 1925 and vanished in 1705. This model gives an excellent fit, explaining 98% of the variance (r^2) of long-term climate over the 160 years. We derive the first component as the composition of Arrhenius's 1896 logarithmic dependence of surface temperature on CO2 with Hofmann's 2009 raised-exponential dependence of CO2 on time, but interpret its fit to the data as the net anthropogenic contribution incorporating all greenhouse and aerosol emissions and relevant feedbacks, bearing in mind the rapid growth in both population and technology. The 56-year oscillation matches the largest component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while the 75-year one is near an oscillation often judged to be in the vicinity of 70 years. The expected 1705 cancellation is about two decades earlier than suggested by Gray et al's tree-ring proxy for the AMO during 1567-1990 [Gray GPL 31, L12205]. While there is no consensus on the origin of ocean oscillations, the oscillations in geomagnetic secular variation noted by Nagata and Rimitake in 1963 and Slaucitajs and Winch in 1965, of respective periods 77 years and 61 years, correspond strikingly with our 76-year oscillation and 62-year "carrier." This model has a number of benefits. Simplicity. It is easily explained to a lay audience in response to the frequently voiced concern that the temperature record is poorly correlated with the CO2 record alone. It shows that the transition from natural to anthropogenic influences on long-term

  19. Long-term structural retinal changes in patients with optic neuritis related to multiple sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andersen MR

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Maria Rene Andersen,1 Malte Roar,2,3 Tobias Sejbaek,2,3 Zsolt Illes,2,3 Jakob Grauslund1,3 1Department of Ophthalmology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; 2Department of Neurology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; 3Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark Purpose: To evaluate the long-term structural and functional outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS with and without a history of optic neuritis (ON.Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of 82 patients diagnosed with MS between 2000 and 2006 from a tertiary hospital center in Denmark. Patients gave a self-reported history of ON, and functional (visual acuity and color vision and structural (spectra domain optical coherence tomography markers of vision were tested.Results: Median age and MS duration at the time of the clinical examination were 49.9 years (range 30.7–72.6 years and 13 years (range 9–15 years, respectively. ON was not associated with impairment of visual acuity or color vision. Twenty-three patients had a history of ON in at least one eye. Compared to non-affected patients, these had a lower inferior (109 vs 113 µm, P=0.04 and temporal retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL thickness (56 vs 67 µm, P=0.01. In an age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression model, lower inferior and temporal RNFL were associated with a higher risk of ON (odds ratio [OR] 1.56 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.01–2.41] and OR 1.74 [95% CI 1.10–2.77] per 10 µm decrement in RNFL thickness, respectively. Twenty patients had a history of ON in one eye. Compared to the non-affected eye, this eye had a lower RNFL (109 vs 115 µm, P=0.04 and a higher central retinal thickness/mean RNFL ratio (2.7 vs 2.4, P=0.04.Conclusion: Although patients with long-term MS and a previous history of ON did not have any functional loss of vision, structural neurodegeneration could be demonstrated in the affected eye. Keywords: optic neuritis

  20. Changes in coexistence mechanisms along a long-term soil chronosequence revealed by functional trait diversity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mason, N. W. H.; Richardson, S. J.; Peltzer, D. A.; de Bello, Francesco; Wardle, D. A.; Allen, R. B.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 100, č. 3 (2012), 678-689 ISSN 0022-0477 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : plant community diversity * environmental filtering * forest ecosystem Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 5.431, year: 2012

  1. Long Term Fuel Sustainable Fission Energy Perspective Relevant for Combating Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, V.; Matijevic, M.; Pevec, D.; Crnobrnja, B.; Lale, D.

    2016-01-01

    In recent research we outlined climate relevant and immediately available proven light water nuclear strategy with a potential to contribute essentially and timely to reduction of carbon dioxide emission to the year 2065. We consider in this paper what is the perspective of fission energy after that year should its contribution be needed. Singling out two technologies with long term perspective which need no or small amounts of uranium, fast breeders and molten salt thorium reactors, we consider their main technical and safety characteristics. In both of these technologies it is essential to have starter nuclides as neither U238 nor Th232 are fissile. We investigated whether plutonium from spent fuel of light water reactors generated to the year 2065 would be present in quantities sufficient to continue operation on the same or similar level in both technologies. However in operational safety, proliferation risks, waste production, in our judgement we must give preference to thorium technology, if it would be ready in second half of the century.(author).

  2. Long-term Changes in Extreme Air Pollution Meteorology and the Implications for Air Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Pei; Wu, Shiliang

    2016-03-31

    Extreme air pollution meteorological events, such as heat waves, temperature inversions and atmospheric stagnation episodes, can significantly affect air quality. Based on observational data, we have analyzed the long-term evolution of extreme air pollution meteorology on the global scale and their potential impacts on air quality, especially the high pollution episodes. We have identified significant increasing trends for the occurrences of extreme air pollution meteorological events in the past six decades, especially over the continental regions. Statistical analysis combining air quality data and meteorological data further indicates strong sensitivities of air quality (including both average air pollutant concentrations and high pollution episodes) to extreme meteorological events. For example, we find that in the United States the probability of severe ozone pollution when there are heat waves could be up to seven times of the average probability during summertime, while temperature inversions in wintertime could enhance the probability of severe particulate matter pollution by more than a factor of two. We have also identified significant seasonal and spatial variations in the sensitivity of air quality to extreme air pollution meteorology.

  3. Synapses between parallel fibres and stellate cells express long-term changes in synaptic efficacy in rat cerebellum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rancillac, Armelle; Crépel, Francis

    2004-02-01

    Various forms of synaptic plasticity underlying motor learning have already been well characterized at cerebellar parallel fibre (PF)-Purkinje cell (PC) synapses. Inhibitory interneurones play an important role in controlling the excitability and synchronization of PCs. We have therefore tested the possibility that excitatory synapses between PFs and stellate cells (SCs) are also able to exhibit long-term changes in synaptic efficacy. In the present study, we show that long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD) were induced at these synapses by a low frequency stimulation protocol (2 Hz for 60 s) and that pairing this low frequency stimulation protocol with postsynaptic depolarization induced a marked shift of synaptic plasticity in favour of LTP. This LTP was cAMP independent, but required nitric oxide (NO) production from pre- and/or postsynaptic elements, depending on the stimulation or pairing protocol used, respectively. In contrast, LTD was not dependent on NO production but it required activation of postsynaptic group II and possibly of group I metabotropic glutamate receptors. Finally, stimulation of PFs at 8 Hz for 15 s also induced LTP at PF-SC synapses. But in this case, LTP was cAMP dependent, as was also observed at PF-PC synapses for presynaptic LTP induced in the same conditions. Thus, long-term changes in synaptic efficacy can be accomplished by PF-SCs synapses as well as by PF-PC synapses, suggesting that both types of plasticity might co-operate during cerebellar motor learning.

  4. Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

    2015-06-01

    Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974-2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.

  5. Monitoring plan for long-term environmental measurements at the proposed Douglas Point Ecological Laboratory, Nanjemoy, Maryland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, B.L.; Miles, K.J.; Strass, P.K.; McDonald, B.S.; Nugent, A.

    1979-01-01

    The Douglas Point Ecological Laboratory has been set up at the site of a proposed power plant, which is to be powered by either nuclear, coal, or an alternate form of fuel. A plan for long-range monitoring of terrestrial ecosystems and atmospheric chemistry is presented. A site characterization study will be made initially. Chemical and physical soil profiles will be established with continuous measurement of soil moisture and nutrient content, as well as other parameters. Data sets will be established, reflecting changes in rainfall pH and rate of deposition through precipitation and dryfall sedimentation of Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + , Na + , SO 4 3- , Cl - , NH 4 + , and NO 3 - . Among other objectives are the development of new monitoring techniques that can be used to trace energy flow, nutrient transport, and radionuclide transport through all trophic levels to selected carnivores. The atmospheric monitoring plan is outlined as to system design and specifications; system installation, operation, and maintenance, data processing and reports; quality assurance program; and project organization. A discussion of administrative and operational monitoring costs is included

  6. Change in Vascular Access and Hospitalization Risk in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiling; Lazarus, J. Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

    2010-01-01

    Background and objectives: Conversion from central venous catheters to a graft or a fistula is associated with lower mortality risk in long-term hemodialysis (HD) patients; however, a similar association with hospitalization risk remains to be elucidated. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: We conducted a prospective observational study all maintenance in-center HD patients who were treated in Fresenius Medical Care, North America legacy facilities; were alive on January 1, 2007; and had baseline laboratory data from December 2006. Access conversion (particularly from a catheter to a fistula or a graft) during the 4-month period from January 1 through April 30, 2007, was linked using Cox models to hospitalization risk during the succeeding 1-year follow-up period (until April 30, 2008). Results: The cohort (N = 79,545) on January 1, 2007 had 43% fistulas, 29% catheters, and 27% grafts. By April 30, 2007, 70,852 patients were still on HD, and among 19,792 catheters initially, only 10.3% (2045 patients) converted to either a graft or a fistula. With catheters as reference, patients who converted to grafts/fistulas had similar adjusted hazard ratios (0.69) as patients on fistulas (0.71), while patients with fistulas/grafts who converted to catheters did worse (1.22), all P < 0.0001. Conclusions: Catheters remain associated with the greatest hospitalization risk. Conversion from a catheter to either graft or fistula had significantly lower hospitalization risk relative to keeping the catheter. Prospective studies are needed to determine whether programs that reduce catheters will decrease hospitalization risk in HD patients. PMID:20884778

  7. Long-term changes of South China Sea surface temperatures in winter and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young-Gyu; Choi, Ara

    2017-07-01

    Utilizing available atmospheric and oceanographic reanalysis data sets, the long-term trend in South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 and the governing processes are investigated. Both winter and summer SST increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes were different. Strong warming in winter occurred in a deep central area, and during summer in the southern region. In winter the net heat flux into the sea increased, contributing to the warming. The spatial pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. Heat flux increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased over the deeper area where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened lowering the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre which transports cold northern water to the south weakened, thereby warming the ocean. The effect was manifested more strongly along the southward western boundary current inducing warming in the deep central part. In summer however, the net surface heat flux decreased and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the SCS, the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is parallel to the mean SST gradient. Southeastward cold advection due to Ekman transport was reduced, thereby warming the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. Upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened, raising the SST east of Vietnam contributing to the southern summer warming secondarily. The weakening of the winds in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different in winter and summer.

  8. Fragmented pictures revisited: long-term changes in repetition priming, relation to skill learning, and the role of cognitive resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Kristen M; Rodrigue, Karen M; Raz, Naftali

    2007-01-01

    Whereas age-related declines in declarative memory have been demonstrated in multiple cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, the effect of age on non-declarative manifestations of memory, such as repetition priming and perceptual skill learning, are less clear. The common assumption, based on cross-sectional studies, is that these processes are only mildly (if at all) affected by age. To investigate long-term changes in repetition priming and age-related differences in identification of fragmented pictures in a 5-year longitudinal design. Healthy adults (age 28-82 years) viewed drawings of objects presented in descending order of fragmentation. The identification threshold (IT) was the highest fragmentation level at which the object was correctly named. After a short interval, old pictures were presented again along with a set of similar but novel pictures. Five years later the participants repeated the experiment. At baseline and 5-year follow-up alike, one repeated exposure improved IT for old (priming) and new (skill acquisition) pictures. However, long-term retention of priming gains was observed only in young adults. Working memory explained a significant proportion of variance in within-occasion priming, long-term priming, and skill learning. Contrary to cross-sectional results, this longitudinal study suggests perceptual repetition priming is not an age-invariant phenomenon and advanced age and reduced availability of cognitive resources may contribute to its decline. Copyright 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. The use of echosounders for long-term studies of the overwintering ecology of sprat (Sprattus sprattus)

    KAUST Repository

    Solberg, Ingrid; Kaartvedt, Stein; Klevjer, Thor Aleksander

    2013-01-01

    Upward-facing echosounders, were used to study the overwintering ecology of sprat during four winters in a Norwegian fjord. The echosounders provided continuous data at a temporal resolution of seconds and enabled studies of individual swimming

  10. Prognostic Effect of Changes in Physical Function Over Prior Year on Subsequent Mortality and Long-Term Nursing Home Admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Thomas M; Han, Ling; Gahbauer, Evelyne A; Leo-Summers, Linda; Allore, Heather G

    2018-05-02

    To evaluate the prognostic effect of changes in physical function at different intervals over the prior year on subsequent outcomes after accounting for present function. Prospective longitudinal study. Greater New Haven, Connecticut, from March 1998 to January 2006. Community-living persons aged 71 and older who completed an 18-month comprehensive assessment (N=658). Disability in 13 activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, and mobility activities was assessed at the 18-month comprehensive assessment and at 12, 6, and 3 months before 18 months. Time to death and long-term nursing home admission, defined as 3 months and longer, were ascertained for up to 5 years after 18 months. In the bivariate models, disability at 18 months and change in disability between 18 months and each of the 3 prior time-points (12, 6, 3 months) were significantly associated with time to death. The risk of death, for example, increased by 24% for each 1-point increase in 18-month disability score (on a scale from 0 to 13) and by 22% for each 1-point change in disability score between 18 months and prior 12 months (on a scale from -13 to 13). In a set of multivariable models with and without covariates, the associations were maintained for 18-month disability but not for change in disability between 18 months and each of the 3 prior time-points. The results were comparable for time to long-term nursing home admission except that 2 of the associations were not statistically significant. When evaluating risk of adverse outcomes, such as death and long-term nursing home admission, an assessment of change in physical function at different intervals over the prior year, although a strong bivariate predictor, did not provide useful prognostic information beyond that available from current level of function. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

  11. Long-term trends in nitrogen isotope composition and nitrogen concentration in brazilian rainforest trees suggest changes in nitrogen cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hietz, Peter; Dünisch, Oliver; Wanek, Wolfgang

    2010-02-15

    Direct or indirect anthropogenic effects on ecosystem nitrogen cycles are important components of global change. Recent research has shown that N isotopes in tree rings reflect changes in ecosystem nitrogen sources or cycles and can be used to study past changes. We analyzed trends in two tree species from a remote and pristine tropical rainforest in Brazil, using trees of different ages to distinguish between the effect of tree age and long-term trends. Because sapwood differed from heartwood in delta(15)N and N concentration and N can be translocated between living sapwood cells, long-term trends are best seen in dead heartwood. Heartwood delta(15)N in Spanish cedar (Cedrela odorata) and big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) increased with tree age, and N concentrations increased with age in Cedrela. Controlling for tree age, delta(15)N increased significantly during the past century even when analyzing only heartwood and after removing labile N compounds. In contrast to northern temperate and boreal forests where wood delta(15)N often decreased, the delta(15)N increase in a remote rainforest is unlikely to be a direct signal of changed N deposition. More plausibly, the change in N isotopic composition indicates a more open N cycle, i.e., higher N losses relative to internal N cycling in the forest, which could be the result of changed forest dynamics.

  12. Ecological landscape elements: long-term monitoring in Great Britain, the Countryside Survey 1978-2007 and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Claire M.; Bunce, Robert G. H.; Norton, Lisa R.; Maskell, Lindsay C.; Smart, Simon M.; Scott, W. Andrew; Henrys, Peter A.; Howard, David C.; Wright, Simon M.; Brown, Michael J.; Scott, Rod J.; Stuart, Rick C.; Watkins, John W.

    2018-04-01

    The Countryside Survey (CS) of Great Britain (GB) provides a unique and statistically robust series of datasets, consisting of an extensive set of repeated ecological measurements at a national scale, covering a time span of 29 years. CS was first undertaken in 1978 to provide a baseline for ecological and land use change monitoring in the rural environment of GB, following a stratified random design, based on 1 km squares. Originally, eight random 1 km squares were drawn from each of 32 environmental classes, thus comprising 256 sample squares in the 1978 survey. The number of these sites increased to 382 in 1984, 506 in 1990, 569 in 1998 and 591 in 2007. Detailed information regarding vegetation types and land use was mapped in all five surveys, allowing reporting by defined standard habitat classifications. Additionally, point and linear landscape features (such as trees and hedgerows) are available from all surveys after 1978. From these stratified, randomly located sample squares, information can be converted into national estimates, with associated error terms. Other data, relating to soils, freshwater and vegetation, were also sampled on analogous dates. However, the present paper describes only the surveys of landscape features and habitats. The resulting datasets provide a unique, comprehensive, quantitative ecological coverage of extent and change in these features in GB. Basic results are presented and their implications discussed. However, much opportunity for further analyses remains. Data from each of the survey years are available via the following DOIs: Landscape area data 1978: https://doi.org/10.5285/86c017ba-dc62-46f0-ad13-c862bf31740e" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5285/86c017ba-dc62-46f0-ad13-c862bf31740e, 1984: https://doi.org/10.5285/b656bb43-448d-4b2c-aade-7993aa243ea3" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5285/b656bb43-448d-4b2c-aade-7993aa243ea3, 1990: https://doi.org/10.5285/94f664e5-10f2-4655-bfe6-44d745f5dca7" target

  13. Bathymetric patterns in standing stock and diversity of deep-sea nematodes at the long-term ecological research observatory HAUSGARTEN (Fram Strait)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzelak, Katarzyna; Kotwicki, Lech; Hasemann, Christiane; Soltwedel, Thomas

    2017-08-01

    Bathymetric patterns in standing stocks and diversity are a major topic of investigation in deep-sea biology. From the literature, responses of metazoan meiofauna and nematodes to bathymetric gradients are well studied, with a general decrease in biomass and abundance with increasing water depth, while bathymetric diversity gradients often, although it is not a rule, show a unimodal pattern. Spatial distribution patterns of nematode communities along bathymetric gradients are coupled with surface-water processes and interacting physical and biological factors within the benthic system. We studied the nematode communities at the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) observatory HAUSGARTEN, located in the Fram Strait at the Marginal Ice Zone, with respect to their standing stocks as well as structural and functional diversity. We evaluated whether nematode density, biomass and diversity indices, such as H0, Hinf, EG(50), Θ- 1, are linked with environmental conditions along a bathymetric transect spanning from 1200 m to 5500 m water depth. Nematode abundance, biomass and diversity, as well as food availability from phytodetritus sedimentation (indicated by chloroplastic pigments in the sediments), were higher at the stations located at upper bathyal depths (1200-2000 m) and tended to decrease with increasing water depth. A faunal shift was found below 3500 m water depth, where genus composition and trophic structure changed significantly and structural diversity indices markedly decreased. A strong dominance of very few genera and its high turnover particularly at the abyssal stations (4000-5500 m) suggests that environmental conditions were rather unfavorable for most genera. Despite the high concentrations of sediment-bound chloroplastic pigments and elevated standing stocks found at the deepest station (5500 m), nematode genus diversity remained the lowest compared to all other stations. This study provides a further insight into the knowledge of deep-sea nematodes

  14. Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey J Walsh

    Full Text Available Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf. Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf

  15. Visual search for changes in scenes creates long-term, incidental memory traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utochkin, Igor S; Wolfe, Jeremy M

    2018-05-01

    Humans are very good at remembering large numbers of scenes over substantial periods of time. But how good are they at remembering changes to scenes? In this study, we tested scene memory and change detection two weeks after initial scene learning. In Experiments 1-3, scenes were learned incidentally during visual search for change. In Experiment 4, observers explicitly memorized scenes. At test, after two weeks observers were asked to discriminate old from new scenes, to recall a change that they had detected in the study phase, or to detect a newly introduced change in the memorization experiment. Next, they performed a change detection task, usually looking for the same change as in the study period. Scene recognition memory was found to be similar in all experiments, regardless of the study task. In Experiment 1, more difficult change detection produced better scene memory. Experiments 2 and 3 supported a "depth-of-processing" account for the effects of initial search and change detection on incidental memory for scenes. Of most interest, change detection was faster during the test phase than during the study phase, even when the observer had no explicit memory of having found that change previously. This result was replicated in two of our three change detection experiments. We conclude that scenes can be encoded incidentally as well as explicitly and that changes in those scenes can leave measurable traces even if they are not explicitly recalled.

  16. Ca isotopes reveal weak control of tectonic uplift on long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J.; Jacobson, A. D.; Holmden, C. E.; Craw, D.

    2010-12-01

    , which are longer on the eastern side of the main divide. After correcting for this input, we apportion Ca in all rivers to silicate versus carbonate weathering using a two-component mixing equation. For non-glaciated streams, the δ44/40Ca method and a conventional Ca/Na method agree within 2%. Silicate weathering contributes less Ca west of the main divide where uplift rates are highest. For actively glaciated catchments, the δ44/40Ca method attributes 26% more Ca to silicate weathering than the Ca/Na method. We ascribe this difference to non-stoichiometric leaching of Ca from freshly cleaved rock surfaces. This reaction must occur even faster than carbonate weathering, which dominates in adjacent non-glaciated watersheds. Our results support the assertion that mountain uplift does not dramatically elevate long-term atmospheric CO2 consumption rates compared to tectonically stable landscapes. However, δ44/40Ca reveals that glaciation, which is genetically linked to mountain uplift, yields moderately higher CO2 consumption rates than previously realized. Additionally, our study highlights how biological processes can influence the terrestrial Ca cycle.

  17. Long-term changes to river regimes prior to late Holocene coseismic faulting, Canterbury, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Jocelyn K.; Nicol, Andrew; Howard, Matthew E.

    2003-09-01

    accelerating incision eventually attained rates in excess of 100 mm/year in those reaches closely associated with the Doctors Anticline and related thrust and transfer faults. All four faults ruptured, either synchronously or sequentially, between 250 and 400 years ago when the river was close to 8 m above its present bed. Better cross-method checks on dating would eliminate some uncertainties, but the apparent similarities suggest a pattern of precursor events initiated by a period of base level drop extending for several kilometres across the structure, presumably in response to general uplift. Over time, deformation is concentrated close to the fault zone causing tilting of degradation terraces, and demonstrably in the Waipara case at least, coseismic rupture is preceded by marked acceleration of the downcutting rate. Overall base level drop is an order of magnitude greater than the throw on the eventual fault scarp. The Ostler Fault (Van Dissen et al., 1993) demonstrates that current deformation is taking place on similar thrust-fault driven folding in the Southern Alps. Regular re-levelling since 1966 has shown uplift rates of 1.0-1.5 mm/year at the crest of a 1-2 km half wave length anticline, but this case also illustrates the general problem of interpreting the significance of rates derived from geophysical monitoring relative to the long term seismic cycle. If the geomorphic signals described can be shown to hold for other examples, then criteria for targeting faults approaching the end of the seismic cycle in some tectonic settings may be possible.

  18. Mandibular dental arch short and long-term spontaneous dentoalveolar changes after slow or rapid maxillary expansion: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur César de Medeiros Alves

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this systematic review was to analyze the short and long-term spontaneous dentoalveolar changes of the mandibular dental arch after slow (SME or rapid (RME maxillary expansion in the mixed and early permanent dentitions. Methods: An electronic search was performed in the following databases: PubMed/Medline, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science. Eligibility criteria for article selection included randomized controlled trials and prospective studies written in English, with no restriction of year of publication, involving patients who underwent SME or RME during the mixed or early permanent dentitions. A double-blind search of articles was performed by two reviewers. Initially, the title and the abstract of the studies were read, and their references were also hand-searched for possible missing studies. A methodological quality scoring scale was used to analyze the selected articles. Results: The search retrieved 373 articles, but only 6 were selected for review after application of the eligibility and exclusion criteria. Non-clinically significant spontaneous dentoalveolar changes of approximately 1mm were found in the mandibular dental arch in the short and long-term, after slow or rapid maxillary expansions. Furthermore, no significant differences were found between treated and control groups. Conclusions: There is enough evidence to conclude that negligible short and long-term spontaneous dentoalveolar changes tend to occur in the mandibular dental arch after SME or RME in the mixed and early permanent dentitions. More randomized studies with appropriate control group are required to better evaluate this issue.

  19. Thin-plate spline analysis of mandibular morphological changes induced by early class III treatment: a long-term evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franchi, Lorenzo; Pavoni, Chiara; Cerroni, Silvia; Cozza, Paola

    2014-08-01

    To evaluate the long-term mandibular morphological changes induced by early treatment of class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion (RME) and facial mask (FM). Twenty-five subjects [10 boys, 15 girls; mean age at T1 (start of treatment) 9.3±1.6 years] with class III disharmony were treated with RME and FM therapy followed by fixed appliances. The patients were re-evaluated at the end of growth (T2), about 8.5 years after the end of the treatment (mean age, 18.6±2.0 years). Sixteen subjects with untreated class III malocclusion comprised the control group. Mandibular shape changes were analysed on the lateral cephalograms of the subjects of both groups by means of thin-plate spline (TPS) analysis. Procrustes average mandibular configurations were subjected to TPS analysis by means of both cross-sectional between-group comparisons at T1 and at T2 and longitudinal within-group comparisons. Statistical analysis of shape differences was performed using a generalized Goodall F test. In the long term, the treated group exhibited a significant upward and forward direction of condylar growth. On the contrary, untreated class III subjects showed an upward and backward direction of condylar growth associated with a downward and forward deformation of the mandibular symphysis. Limitations are related to the small sample size of both treated and control groups and to the retrospective nature of the study. Early treatment of class III malocclusion with RME and FM is able to produce significant and favourable long-term mandibular shape changes characterized by an anterior morphogenetic rotation. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Orthodontic Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Coding early naturalists' accounts into long-term fish community changes in the Adriatic Sea (1800-2000.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomaso Fortibuoni

    Full Text Available The understanding of fish communities' changes over the past centuries has important implications for conservation policy and marine resource management. However, reconstructing these changes is difficult because information on marine communities before the second half of the 20(th century is, in most cases, anecdotal and merely qualitative. Therefore, historical qualitative records and modern quantitative data are not directly comparable, and their integration for long-term analyses is not straightforward. We developed a methodology that allows the coding of qualitative information provided by early naturalists into semi-quantitative information through an intercalibration with landing proportions. This approach allowed us to reconstruct and quantitatively analyze a 200-year-long time series of fish community structure indicators in the Northern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea. Our analysis provides evidence of long-term changes in fish community structure, including the decline of Chondrichthyes, large-sized and late-maturing species. This work highlights the importance of broadening the time-frame through which we look at marine ecosystem changes and provides a methodology to exploit, in a quantitative framework, historical qualitative sources. To the purpose, naturalists' eyewitness accounts proved to be useful for extending the analysis on fish community back in the past, well before the onset of field-based monitoring programs.

  1. Long-term changes in the rotation of the Earth: 700 B.C. to A.D. 1980

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, F.R.

    1984-01-01

    Occultations of stars by the Moon, and solar and lunar eclipses are analysed for variations in the Earth's rotation over the past 2700 years. Although tidal braking provides the dominant, long-term torque, it is found that the rate of rotation does not decrease uniformly as would be expected if tidal friction were the only mechanism affecting the Earth's rotation. There are also non-tidal changes present that vary on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. The magnitudinal and temporal behaviour of these non-tidal variations are evaluated in this paper. (author)

  2. The effect of long-term impact of elevated temperature on changes in the microstructure of inconel 740H alloy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sroka

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of investigations on microstructure changes after the long-term impact of temperature. The microstructure investigations were carried out by light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The qualitative and quantitative identification of the existing precipitates was carried out using X-ray phase composition analysis. The effect of elevated temperature on precipitation processes of test material were described. The obtained results of investigations form part of the material characteristics of new-generation alloys, which can be indirectly associated with the stability of functional properties under the simultaneous effect of high temperature and stress.

  3. Structural changes in chromosomes of peripheral blood lymphocytes in monkeys subjected to long-term daily irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosichenko, L.P.

    1976-01-01

    During the period that lasted from 4 to 11 years after the cessation of the long-term daily gamma-irradiation the frequency of chromosome rearrangements in peripheral blood lymphocytes of monkeys exceeded the control level. The number of rearrangements did not change significantly with different total irradiation doses (from 826 to 3677r). The main type of structural chromosome rearrangements were symmetrical chromosome exchanges. Abnormal cell clones in peripheral lymphocytes in monkeys irradiated with low doses exhibited no selective advantages during the periods of investigation

  4. Loch Vale Watershed Long-Term Ecological Research and Monitoring Program: Quality Assurance Report, 2003-09

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richer, Eric E.; Baron, Jill S.

    2011-01-01

    The Loch Vale watershed project is a long-term research and monitoring program located in Rocky Mountain National Park that addresses watershed-scale ecosystem processes, particularly as they respond to atmospheric deposition and climate variability. Measurements of precipitation depth, precipitation chemistry, discharge, and surface-water quality are made within the watershed and elsewhere in Rocky Mountain National Park. As data collected for the program are used by resource managers, scientists, policy makers, and students, it is important that all data collected in Loch Vale watershed meet high standards of quality. In this report, data quality was evaluated for precipitation, discharge, and surface-water chemistry measurements collected during 2003-09. Equipment upgrades were made at the Loch Vale National Atmospheric Deposition Program monitoring site to improve precipitation measurements and evaluate variability in precipitation depth and chemistry. Additional solar panels and batteries have been installed to improve the power supply, and data completeness, at the NADP site. As a result of equipment malfunction, discharge data for the Loch Outlet were estimated from October 18, 2005, to August 17, 2006. Quality-assurance results indicate that more than 98 percent of all surface-water chemistry measurements were accurate and precise. Records that did not meet quality criteria were removed from the database. Measurements of precipitation depth, precipitation chemistry, discharge, and surface-water quality were all sufficiently complete and consistent to support project data needs.

  5. Identifying ecological "sweet spots" underlying cyanobacteria functional group dynamics from long-term observations using a statistical machine learning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, N.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Phlips, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    Diversity in the eco-physiological adaptations of cyanobacteria genera creates challenges for water managers who are tasked with developing appropriate actions for controlling not only the intensity and frequency of cyanobacteria blooms, but also reducing the potential for blooms of harmful taxa (e.g., toxin producers, N2 fixers). Compounding these challenges, the efficacy of nutrient management strategies (phosphorus-only versus nitrogen-and-phosphorus) for cyanobacteria bloom abatement is the subject of an ongoing debate, which increases uncertainty associated with bloom mitigation decision-making. In this work, we analyze a unique long-term (17-year) dataset composed of monthly observations of cyanobacteria genera abundances, zooplankton abundances, water quality, and flow from Lake George, a bloom-impacted flow-through lake of the St. Johns River (FL, USA). Using the Random Forests machine learning algorithm, an assumption-free ensemble modeling approach, the dataset was evaluated to quantify and characterize relationships between environmental conditions and seven cyanobacteria groupings: five genera (Anabaena, Cylindrospermopsis, Lyngbya, Microcystis, and Oscillatoria) and two functional groups (N2 fixers and non-fixers). Results highlight the selectivity of nitrogen in describing genera and functional group dynamics, and potential for physical effects to limit the efficacy of nutrient management as a mechanism for cyanobacteria bloom mitigation.

  6. Long term impact of climate change on the metropolitan coast; Impacts a long terme du changement climatique sur le littoral metropolitain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    In its first part, this report describes global physical phenomena: air and sea temperature rise, modification of the tempest regime, precipitations, ocean stratification. Then, it describes some more specific physical effects of climate change: average sea level rise, sea currents (global, regional and local oceanic circulation), and wave modification on the coast. It describes the effects of various media due to sea submersion, erosion and accretion, ocean acidification, salinization increase of underground coastal waters, modification of the composition of biotic communities, biological invasions, and appearance of new toxicities for mankind

  7. Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

    2014-05-01

    Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

  8. Labile and Non-labile Soil Carbon Fractions Equally Contributed to Carbon Changes under Long-term Fertilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, F.; Li, J.; Xu, M.; Huang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) storages are altered under long-term fertilization in croplands, it however remains unclear how fast- to slow-cycling SOC fractions each respond to fertilization practices. Based on five two-decade Chinese long-term fertilization experiments (GZL: Gongzhuling; ZZ: Zhengzhou; CQ: Chongqing; JX: Jinxian; QY: Qiyang) under three fertilization treatments (CK: cropping with no fertilizer input; NPK: chemical nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers; and NPKM: NPK with manure input), we quantified very labile, labile, non-labile and total SOC stocks at 0-20cm soil depth. Results showed that SOC stocks varied among sites (GZL, JX, CQ > ZZ, QY) and generally increased with fertilizations (CK-1 at ZZ, GZL, QY, CQ and JX, respectively. The corresponding changes of the sum of very labile and labile SOC fractions were 2.6, 2.0, 1.8, 0.8 and -0.5 Mg ha-1 at ZZ, QY, GZL, CQ and JX, respectively. Also, NPKM increased total SOC stock by 18.3, 16.2, 14.4, 10.5, and 6.5 Mg ha-1 at QY, GZL, ZZ, CQ and JX, respectively. The corresponding changes of the sum of very labile and labile SOC fractions were 8.6, 6.8, 6.6, 3.2 and -1.6 Mg ha-1 at QY, GZL, ZZ, CQ and JX, respectively. These results suggested that about half or more than half SOC stock accretions under fertilization were induced by increase in non-labile SOC fractions. It thus informs the importance of non-labile SOC fractions in contributing to soil C sequestration under long-term fertilizations in Chinese croplands. Future research should improve our mechanistic understanding of biogeochemical transformation of non-labile organic C in soils.

  9. Effect of changes in periodic limb movements under cpap on adherence and long term compliance in obstructive sleep apnea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwenge, Gimbada B; Rougui, Ihsan; Rodenstein, Daniel

    2017-11-20

    Purpose of the study Periodic leg movements (PLMs) are found in 30% of patients suffering from OSA. Under CPAP, we observed that PLMs can increase, decrease, or remain unchanged. The predictors of these changes are not well established. Objective To determine the predictors of PLMs change under CPAP and its impact on long-term adherence. Materials and method The patients were referred to the sleep laboratory for snoring or sleepiness. A single PSG night has been performed before and after CPAP treatment. Data on medication used, comorbidities and ferritin level were collected. Results A total of 160 patients were recruited with a severe OSA. About 32.5% (52/160) patients had emerging PLM i.e. that appeared after the disappearance of respiratory events. By comparing patients with emerging-PLMs to others, we found that only the blood ferritin level was significantly different between groups. Moreover, after one-year follow-up, a significant difference in adherence and long-term compliance was observed between patients without PLM at both screening and CPAP polysomnographies or emerging PLM at the second study (56%) vs. patients with baseline PLM, whether PLM remained stable or decreased under CPAP treatment (75%) (p-value 0.028). Serum ferritin and presence of diabetes mellitus predicted the evolution of PLM observed. Patients with low ferritin levels demonstrated an increase of PLM after initiation of nasal CPAP treatment. Conclusion The emergence of PLM negatively impacts long-term adherence to nasal CPAP treatment in OSA. Blood ferritin level is a predictor of the evolution of PLM under CPAP therapy.

  10. Locating Changes in Land Use from Long Term Remote Sensing Data in Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present a method that allows mapping changes in vegetation cover over large areas quickly and inexpensively, thus providing policy makers with the capability to locate and assess areas undergoing environmental change, and improving their ability to positively respond or adapt ...

  11. Weight training, aerobic physical activities, and long-term waist circumference change in men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mekary, Rania A; Grøntved, Anders; Despres, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Findings on weight training and waist circumference (WC) change are controversial. This study examined prospectively whether weight training, moderate to vigorous aerobic activity (MVAA), and replacement of one activity for another were associated with favorable changes in WC and body ...

  12. Realized population change for long-term monitoring: California spotted owl case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary M. Conner; John J. Keane; Claire V. Gallagher; Gretchen Jehle; Thomas E. Munton; Paula A. Shaklee; Ross A. Gerrard

    2013-01-01

    The annual rate of population change (λt) is a good metric for evaluating population performance because it summarizes survival and recruitment rates and can be used for open populations. Another measure of population performance, realized population change (Δt...

  13. Interpreting landscape change in high mountains of northeastern Oregon from long-term repeat photography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jon M. Skovlin; Gerald S. Strickler; Jesse L. Peterson; Arthur W. Sampson

    2001-01-01

    We compared 45 photographs taken before 1925 to photographs taken as late as 1999 and documented landscape changes above 5,000 feet elevation in the Wallowa, Elkhorn, and Greenhorn Mountains of northeastern Oregon. We noted the following major changes from these comparisons: (1) the expansion of subalpine fir into mountain grasslands, (2) the invasion of moist and wet...

  14. Long-term maxillomandibular skeletal and dental changes in children with cleft lip and palate after maxillary distraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, Kiyoshi; Sato, Masaru; Omura, Ken

    2006-09-01

    Long-term skeletal and dental changes were examined in 8 children with cleft lip and palate who underwent maxillary distraction to allow the maxilla to catch up to their mandibular growth at the treatment point. Changes in the overjet (OJ), overbite (OB), and positions of the anterior nasal spine (ANS), upper incisors (U1), pogonion (Pog), and lower incisors (L1) were measured on preoperative to 36 months postoperative lateral-cephalograms. In most of the children, the long-term changes after the maxillary distraction resulted in an inferior growth of the maxilla and anteroinferior growth of the mandible. This seems to suggest that maxillary distraction performed during childhood needs considerable overcorrection. However, if the maxilla is distracted to an adult position during childhood, the masticatory functions of the children will markedly deteriorate until their jaws grow. Therefore, we believe that one goal of maxillary distraction during childhood can be to allow the maxilla to catch up to the mandibular growth of the children at the treatment point.

  15. Histomorphometric examination of long-term changes in temporomandibular joints after mandibular lengthening by distraction osteogenesis in rabbits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihmanli, Ahmet; Dolanmaz, Doğan; Tüz, Hakan; Pampu, Alper; Dönmez, Hasan Hüseyin

    2012-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term histomorphometric changes in temporomandibular joints (TMJs) of rabbits after mandibular distraction osteogenesis (DO). Twenty-six rabbits were used in this study. Two of them served as control subjects, and the remaining 24 underwent DO procedures in their left mandibular bodies. After a latency period of 5 days, 5 mm lengthening was performed at a rate of 1 mm/d. The rabbits in the experimental group were randomly divided into 4 subgroups and killed after 1, 2, 4, and 6 months. TMJs from both sides were harvested and prepared with hematoxylin and eosin stain for histomorphometric examination under an optical microscope. Compared with control subjects and nondistracted sides, fibrous articular, proliferative, and hypertrophic areas were significantly increased (P distracted sides. The changes were insignificant in the fourth and sixth postoperative months. Unilateral mandibular distraction of 5 mm was found to be well tolerated and no degenerative changes were observed histologically in the rabbit TMJs in the long-term period. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Long-term changes in ADAS-cog: what is clinically relevant for disease modifying trials in Alzheimer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vellas, B; Andrieu, S; Cantet, C; Dartigues, J F; Gauthier, S

    2007-01-01

    With the development of long-term disease modifying trials, changes in ADAS-Cog at 18 months will rise certainly many questions. We decided to look in the Real.fr study at the links between changes in cognition, ADAS-Cog and function. A total of 346 Alzheimer's patients with ADAS-cog at entry and at 18 months. were eligible for this analysis. These patients were on average 77.44 years old and 254 (72.36%) were women. The great majority lived at home and about 93% were treated with a cholinesterase inhibitor at baseline. Thirty three patients (9%) had a gain of more than 2 points at the ADAS-cog at 18 months (Group I, improvement); 130 (38%) were considered as stable, the reference group (Group II ) characterized by a stability at the ADAS-cog: decline of 2 points to gain of 2 points, 112 subjects (32%) had a moderate decline between 2 and 7 at the ADAScog (Group III) and finally 71 subjects (21%) had a severe impairment more than seven points at the ADAS-cog. A loss of one Basic ADL is certainly highly relevant, and such a change was found at 18 months in more than half of the subjects, which is not surprising for a long-term evolution in mild to moderate AD. An impairment of more than 7 points at the ADAS-cog was found in 21% of the subjects at 18 months and was associated with loss.

  17. Intra and inter-annual structure of zooplankton communities in floodplain lakes: a long-term ecological research study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadson R. Simões

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Water flow management has significantly changed the natural dynamic of floods, which are responsible for the structure and dynamic of aquatic communities in river-floodplain systems. With the aim to elaborate a conceptual framework that describes the main ecological factors associated with zooplankton community structure in the Upper Paraná River, we investigated the mechanisms that regulate the communities structure and their response to inter-annual and hydro-sedimentological variations in the floodplain and the biological factors associated with species abundance in those communities. For this we conducted samplings every six months (potamophase in March and limnophase in September to characterize intra and inter-annual variations in community structure between 2000 and 2008. The intra-annual differences on the species richness, abundance, Shannon diversity index, and evenness, were conducted using Bayesian procedures to show probabilistic predictions of the data fit to main variation sources. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS, multi-response permutation procedure (MRPP, and indicator species analysis (IndVal were run to assess and characterize the seasonality of the community structure. During high water (potamophase, hydrologic connectivity favoured exchange and dispersal of species in some lakes, increasing local diversity; during low water (limnophase, higher local productivity favoured opportunistic taxa, increasing species dominance and decreasing local diversity. Food resources and density of small-size fish were biological factors associated with the seasonal dynamic of the zooplankton community; these factors were dependent on hydrosedimentological phase (potamophase or limnophase. Water levels and limnological modifications related to water flow management have promoted replacement and impoverishment of aquatic biota in affected lakes and have indicated the ecological importance of a natural dynamic flood, which displays

  18. Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oene, H.; Berendse, F.; De Kovel, C.G.F. [Nature Consevation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, J.R.M.; Bakkenes, M.; Ihle, F. [National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1999-07-01

    The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C0{sub 2} levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs.

  19. Weight training, aerobic physical activities, and long-term waist circumference change in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekary, Rania A; Grøntved, Anders; Despres, Jean-Pierre; De Moura, Leandro Pereira; Asgarzadeh, Morteza; Willett, Walter C; Rimm, Eric B; Giovannucci, Edward; Hu, Frank B

    2015-02-01

    Findings on weight training and waist circumference (WC) change are controversial. This study examined prospectively whether weight training, moderate to vigorous aerobic activity (MVAA), and replacement of one activity for another were associated with favorable changes in WC and body weight (BW). Physical activity, WC, and BW were reported in 1996 and 2008 in a cohort of 10,500 healthy U.S. men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Multiple linear regression models (partition/substitution) to assess these associations were used. After adjusting for potential confounders, a significant inverse dose-response relationship between weight training and WC change (P-trend weight training (-0.67 cm, 95% CI -0.93, -0.41) than for MVAA (-0.33 cm, 95% CI -0.40, -0.27), other activities (-0.16 cm, 95% CI -0.28, -0.03), or TV watching (0.08 cm, 95% CI 0.05, 0.12). Substituting 20 min/day of weight training for any other discretionary activity had the strongest inverse association with WC change. MVAA had the strongest inverse association with BW change (-0.23 kg, 95% CI -0.29, -0.17). Among various activities, weight training had the strongest association with less WC increase. Studies on frequency/volume of weight training and WC change are warranted. © 2014 The Obesity Society.

  20. Impact of long-term climate change on a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.; Kautsky, U.; Moren, L.; Wallroth, T.

    2001-05-01

    The radioactivity of spent nuclear fuel will decay over a period of time (100,000 years or longer) in which we expect major environmental change. Climatically driven changes such as glaciation, permafrost and changes in sea level will affect the subsurface environment and must therefore be considered in performance and safety assessments. We regard the state of climate to be determined by the climate system, comprising the atmosphere, the biosphere, the oceans, the ice sheets and the surface of the lithosphere. Climate can change as a consequence of external forcing or as a consequence of the internal dynamics. The changes in the past show a complex cyclical pattern with repetitive periodicities and magnitudes of change. On the relatively long time scale which is of concern in this report climate changes are believed to be triggered by changes in insolation due to cyclical changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. This is referred to as the Milankovitch theory or the astronomical climate theory. A brief review of our knowledge of the climate system, proxy records and observations of past climate change is presented in the report. The most extreme departures from modern environmental conditions in Sweden have occurred during the cold, glacial cycles with ice sheets covering the whole of Sweden. As part of SKB's palaeohydrogeological research programme a time-dependent, thermo-mechanically coupled model of ice sheet behaviour has been developed in order to simulate past fluctuations of the Scandinavian ice sheet and forecast its future. The ice sheet model can calculate the temperature field and isostatic response of the underlying bedrock, subglacial and proglacial permafrost and the subglacial melt rates. By connecting the glaciation model with hydrogeological and rock mechanical models, the response of the subsurface to climate change can be investigated. In this report the climate-driven environmental changes are represented as a series of successive climate

  1. Impact of long-term climate change on a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulton, G.S. [Edinburgh Univ. (United Kingdom); Kautsky, U.; Moren, L. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Wallroth, T. [Bergab Consulting Geologists (Sweden)

    2001-05-01

    The radioactivity of spent nuclear fuel will decay over a period of time (100,000 years or longer) in which we expect major environmental change. Climatically driven changes such as glaciation, permafrost and changes in sea level will affect the subsurface environment and must therefore be considered in performance and safety assessments. We regard the state of climate to be determined by the climate system, comprising the atmosphere, the biosphere, the oceans, the ice sheets and the surface of the lithosphere. Climate can change as a consequence of external forcing or as a consequence of the internal dynamics. The changes in the past show a complex cyclical pattern with repetitive periodicities and magnitudes of change. On the relatively long time scale which is of concern in this report climate changes are believed to be triggered by changes in insolation due to cyclical changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. This is referred to as the Milankovitch theory or the astronomical climate theory. A brief review of our knowledge of the climate system, proxy records and observations of past climate change is presented in the report. The most extreme departures from modern environmental conditions in Sweden have occurred during the cold, glacial cycles with ice sheets covering the whole of Sweden. As part of SKB's palaeohydrogeological research programme a time-dependent, thermo-mechanically coupled model of ice sheet behaviour has been developed in order to simulate past fluctuations of the Scandinavian ice sheet and forecast its future. The ice sheet model can calculate the temperature field and isostatic response of the underlying bedrock, subglacial and proglacial permafrost and the subglacial melt rates. By connecting the glaciation model with hydrogeological and rock mechanical models, the response of the subsurface to climate change can be investigated. In this report the climate-driven environmental changes are represented as a series of successive

  2. Long-Term Changes in Refractive Error and Clinical Evaluation in Partially Accommodative Esotropia after Surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin Yeop Oh

    Full Text Available We investigate the changes in refractive error and clinical evaluation in partially accommodative esotropia(PAET after surgery. A total of 68 patients PAET who received at least 2 years of follow-up after surgery were enrolled in this study. We performed a retrospective study in patients who underwent unilateral or bilateral medial rectus recession for a non-accommodative component of PAET between January 2005 and March 2013. Patients were divided into groups according to the presence of dominancy (dominant, non-dominant, alternative eye, and presence of amblyopia (amblyopic, fellow, normal eye. Changes and changing pattern in SE refractive error were analyzed in all patients and compared between groups. Patients were divided into two groups, those weaned off of hyperopic glasses and those who continued using them, then factors that significantly influenced the continued use of glasses were analyzed. The changes and changing pattern in SE refractive error according to time after operation and presence of amblyopia or dominancy. The mean length of follow-up was 4.89±1.74 years after surgery and the mean change in SE refractive error rate per year was -0.284±0.411 diopters (D. The pattern of changes in the mean SE refractive error for those with dominant, non-dominant, and alternative eyes was not significantly different (p = 0.292. The pattern of changes in the mean SE refractive error for those with amblyopic, fellow, and normal eyes was significantly different (p = 0.0002. Patients were successfully weaned off of hyperopic glasses at an average age of 9.41±2.74 years. The average SE refractive error in the group weaned off of hyperopic glasses was significantly lower than that in the group maintained on hyperopic glasses (p = 0.0002. The change of SE refractive error in amblyopic eyes decreased less than that in fellow or normal eyes, which may be correlated with the presence of amblyopia. Patients with a smaller esodeviated angle without

  3. Stable isotope evidence of long-term changes in North Sea food web structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Christensen, Jens Tang

    2008-01-01

    coast. Porpoises collected after ~1960 had significantly lower d15N than porpoises collected earlier. This change in d15N implies that fundamental changes in food web structure in, or nutrient availability to, the North Sea have taken place over the last ~150 yr and that most of the change occurred over......, been feeding at a lower trophic level than during the preceding century, i.e. animals from lower trophic levels may now be more dominant than they were prior to the middle of the 20th century. There is no a priori reason to suspect that a change in isotope distributions at the base of the food web has...... occurred during this period and we have not been able to find material that would allow us to test the assumption that there has been no temporal development of d15N at the lowest levels of the food web. Thus, we cannot eliminate the possibility that the change in d15N in harbour porpoise skeletons...

  4. Low-frequency sound exposure causes reversible long-term changes of cochlear transfer characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drexl, Markus; Otto, Larissa; Wiegrebe, Lutz; Marquardt, Torsten; Gürkov, Robert; Krause, Eike

    2016-02-01

    Intense, low-frequency sound presented to the mammalian cochlea induces temporary changes of cochlear sensitivity, for which the term 'Bounce' phenomenon has been coined. Typical manifestations are slow oscillations of hearing thresholds or the level of otoacoustic emissions. It has been suggested that these alterations are caused by changes of the mechano-electrical transducer transfer function of outer hair cells (OHCs). Shape estimates of this transfer function can be derived from low-frequency-biased distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAE). Here, we tracked the transfer function estimates before and after triggering a cochlear Bounce. Specifically, cubic DPOAEs, modulated by a low-frequency biasing tone, were followed over time before and after induction of the cochlear Bounce. Most subjects showed slow, biphasic changes of the transfer function estimates after low-frequency sound exposure relative to the preceding control period. Our data show that the operating point changes biphasically on the transfer function with an initial shift away from the inflection point followed by a shift towards the inflection point before returning to baseline values. Changes in transfer function and operating point lasted for about 180 s. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that intense, low-frequency sound disturbs regulatory mechanisms in OHCs. The homeostatic readjustment of these mechanisms after low-frequency offset is reflected in slow oscillations of the estimated transfer functions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, H. H.; Emanuel, W. R.; Solomon, A. M.

    1984-01-01

    The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change.

  6. Seasonal and long-term changes in pH in the Dutch coastal zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Provoost

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent observations and modelling studies suggest that biogeochemical changes can mask atmospheric CO2-induced pH decreases. Data collected by the Dutch monitoring authorities in different coastal systems (North Sea, Wadden Sea, Ems-Dollard, Eastern Scheldt and Scheldt estuary since 1975 provide an excellent opportunity to test whether this is the case in the Dutch coastal zone. The time-series were analysed using Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA which resulted in the identification of system-dependent patterns on both seasonal and intra-annual time scales. The observed rates of pH change greatly exceed those expected from enhanced CO2 uptake, thus suggesting that other biogeochemical processes, possibly related to changes in nutrient loading, can play a dominant role in ocean acidification.

  7. The long-term hemodynamic changes of liver and spleen after partial splenic embolization for portal hypertension due to cirrhosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xinyuan; Geng Huijie; Wang Baocai; Zhang Xinfang; Du Ruiqing; Wang Lijing; Yin Shumei

    2009-01-01

    Objective: To observe the long-term hemodynamic changes of liver and spleen after partial splenic embolization (PSE) in patients with portal hypertension due to cirrhosis. Methods: PSE was performed in 1720 patients with portal hypertension and hypersplenism due to cirrhosis. The survival rate of 1 - 5 years and the cause of death were observed. The preoperative and postoperative hemodynamics of both the liver and spleen, the blood picture, splenic size and the complications in 600 patients who survived over five years and had integrated document were retrospectively analyzed and compared. Results Obvious changes in hemodynamics at different time after PSE were seen. The frequency and the volume of gastrointestinal bleeding were obviously decreased, while the leucocyte and platelet count was markedly increased. The spleen size began to reduce two months after PSE, which became very obvious in three months. The difference in above items between pre-PSE and post-PSE was statistically significant (P < 0.01). Conclusion: PSE can definitely improve hepatic and splenic hemodynamics, reduce the pressure of portal vein, alleviate hypersplenism and reduce the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding, elongate the life span and improve the living quality. With obvious and reliable long-term efficacy and fewer complications, PSE is a minimallyinvasive, safe and effective therapy. (authors)

  8. Long-term climate change assessment study plan for the Hanford Site permanent isolation Barrier Development Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.L.; Chatters, J.C.; Waugh, W.J.

    1992-07-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program (Barrier Development Program) was organized to develop the technology needed to provide an in-place disposal capability for the Hanford Site (Adams and Wing 1986; Wig and Gee 1990). The goal of the Barrier Development Program is to provide defensible evidence that final barrier design(s) will adequately control water infiltration; plant and animal intrusion; and wind and water erosion for a minimum of 1,000 yr and isolate wastes from the accessible environment and warm inadvertent human intruders using markers. This document describes the long-term climate change studies planned to support the Barrier Development Program. The plan outlines a multi-year and multi-discipline approach to assess long-term climate change issues and to help optimize the design of the permanent isolation barriers. A multi-disciplinary approach to climatic data acquisition will be responsible for obtaining needed information for concurrent barrier tasks and for developing a local climate forecast model. This model will couple past climate patterns with models of regional and global climate drivers to provide bounding conditions for barrier performance assessment analyses

  9. Negotiated risk and resident autonomy: Frontline care staff perspectives on culture change in long term care in Nova Scotia, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Emily

    2016-08-12

    Regulating risk, freedom of action, and autonomy in decision making are problems shared by both caregivers and residents in long term care settings, and may become the subject of tension and constant negotiation. This study focuses on long term care staff and management perceptions of day to day life in a care community which has gone through a culture change transition, where small residentially scaled households replace large instutional models of care. In each household, the setting is considered to be home for the 8-12 residents, creating a major shift of roles for the caregivers; they are, in essence, coming into a home rather than institutional environment as a place of work. This potentially changes the dynamics of both patterns of work for caregivers and patterns of daily living for residents. Participant observations and care staff interviews. Several key themes emrged which include: teamwork; the culture of care; regulating risk; the physical environment and care staff empowerment. An unexpected outcome was the consensus among care staff that it is they who feel at home while working in the care households, leading to empowerment in their work roles and a deeper understanding of the importance of their role in the lives of the residents.

  10. Changes in prefrontal-limbic function in major depression after 15 months of long-term psychotherapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Buchheim

    Full Text Available Neuroimaging studies of depression have demonstrated treatment-specific changes involving the limbic system and regulatory regions in the prefrontal cortex. While these studies have examined the effect of short-term, interpersonal or cognitive-behavioural psychotherapy, the effect of long-term, psychodynamic intervention has never been assessed. Here, we investigated recurrently depressed (DSM-IV unmedicated outpatients (N = 16 and control participants matched for sex, age, and education (N = 17 before and after 15 months of psychodynamic psychotherapy. Participants were scanned at two time points, during which presentations of attachment-related scenes with neutral descriptions alternated with descriptions containing personal core sentences previously extracted from an attachment interview. Outcome measure was the interaction of the signal difference between personal and neutral presentations with group and time, and its association with symptom improvement during therapy. Signal associated with processing personalized attachment material varied in patients from baseline to endpoint, but not in healthy controls. Patients showed a higher activation in the left anterior hippocampus/amygdala, subgenual cingulate, and medial prefrontal cortex before treatment and a reduction in these areas after 15 months. This reduction was associated with improvement in depressiveness specifically, and in the medial prefrontal cortex with symptom improvement more generally. This is the first study documenting neurobiological changes in circuits implicated in emotional reactivity and control after long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy.

  11. Changes in Prefrontal-Limbic Function in Major Depression after 15 Months of Long-Term Psychotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchheim, Anna; Viviani, Roberto; Kessler, Henrik; Kächele, Horst; Cierpka, Manfred; Roth, Gerhard; George, Carol; Kernberg, Otto F.; Bruns, Georg; Taubner, Svenja

    2012-01-01

    Neuroimaging studies of depression have demonstrated treatment-specific changes involving the limbic system and regulatory regions in the prefrontal cortex. While these studies have examined the effect of short-term, interpersonal or cognitive-behavioural psychotherapy, the effect of long-term, psychodynamic intervention has never been assessed. Here, we investigated recurrently depressed (DSM-IV) unmedicated outpatients (N = 16) and control participants matched for sex, age, and education (N = 17) before and after 15 months of psychodynamic psychotherapy. Participants were scanned at two time points, during which presentations of attachment-related scenes with neutral descriptions alternated with descriptions containing personal core sentences previously extracted from an attachment interview. Outcome measure was the interaction of the signal difference between personal and neutral presentations with group and time, and its association with symptom improvement during therapy. Signal associated with processing personalized attachment material varied in patients from baseline to endpoint, but not in healthy controls. Patients showed a higher activation in the left anterior hippocampus/amygdala, subgenual cingulate, and medial prefrontal cortex before treatment and a reduction in these areas after 15 months. This reduction was associated with improvement in depressiveness specifically, and in the medial prefrontal cortex with symptom improvement more generally. This is the first study documenting neurobiological changes in circuits implicated in emotional reactivity and control after long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy. PMID:22470470

  12. Characterizing long-term patterns of weight change in China using latent class trajectory modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Paynter

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades, obesity-related diseases have increased tremendously in China, and are now the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Patterns of weight change can be used to predict risk of obesity-related diseases, increase understanding of etiology of disease risk, identify groups at particularly high risk, and shape prevention strategies.Latent class trajectory modeling was used to compute weight change trajectories for adults aged 18 to 66 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS data (n = 12,611. Weight change trajectories were computed separately for males and females by age group at baseline due to differential age-related patterns of weight gain in China with urbanization. Generalized linear mixed effects models examined the association between weight change trajectories and baseline characteristics including urbanicity, BMI category, age, and year of study entry.Trajectory classes were identified for each of six age-sex subgroups corresponding to various degrees of weight loss, maintenance and weight gain. Baseline BMI status was a significant predictor of trajectory membership for all age-sex subgroups. Baseline overweight/obesity increased odds of following 'initial loss with maintenance' trajectories. We found no significant association between baseline urbanization and trajectory membership after controlling for other covariates.Trajectory analysis identified patterns of weight change for age by gender groups. Lack of association between baseline urbanization status and trajectory membership suggests that living in a rural environment at baseline was not protective. Analyses identified age-specific nuances in weight change patterns, pointing to the importance of subgroup analyses in future research.

  13. Predictors of long-term change of a physical activity promotion programme in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Grandes, Gonzalo; Ortega Sánchez-Pinilla, Ricardo; Torcal, Jesus; Montoya, Imanol

    2014-02-04

    Further research is needed to improve the evidence regarding determinants of physical activity (PA) as a crucial step to plan higher effective intervention strategies. The goal of the present study is to identify socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of primary care (PHC) insufficiently active patients that are associated with longitudinal changes in the level of physical activity. Longitudinal analysis of baseline socio-demographic and clinical predictors of physical activity change in insufficiently active PHC patients who participated in a PA-promoting multi-centre randomized clinical trial conducted from October 2003 through March 2006. The primary outcome measure was the self-reported physical activity assessed with the 7-day Physical Activity Recall (PAR), at baseline, 6, 12 and 24 months. Baseline covariates included sex, age, social class, anthropometric measures and other cardiovascular risk factors or associated diseases (Diabetes, HTA, tobacco use, etc.), and stage of readiness to change PA. Generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate longitudinal association of studied variables on PA change over the three follow-up measurements. A total of 3691 patients (85% of the 4317 recruited in the trial) with at least one follow-up measurement were included in the longitudinal analysis. At baseline, analysed patients (mean age: 50.6 years; 64.6% women) devoted 34.7 minutes and 2.36 metabolic equivalent hours per week (MET.h/week) to moderate and vigorous physical activity. Older age, male gender, higher social class, lower BMI, diagnosis of diabetes or hypertension, and measurement season were significant predictors of PA longitudinal change. The effect of baseline readiness to change on PA dose was modified by time, showing a positive gradient in favour of those with more readiness to change that increases significantly at 12 and 24 months (p-value interaction < .0001). Identified baseline characteristics such as readiness to change and

  14. Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ducharne, A.; Baubion, C.; Beaudoin, N.; Benoit, M.; Billen, G.; Brisson, N.; Garnier, J.; Kieken, H.; Lebonvallet, S.; Ledoux, E.; Mary, B.; Mignolet, C.; Poux, X.; Sauboua, E.; Schott, C.; Thery, S.; Viennot, P.

    2007-01-01

    To explore the evolution of a human impacted river, the Seine (France), over the 21st century, three driving factors were examined: climate, agriculture, and point source inputs of domestic and industrial origin. Three future scenarios were constructed, by modification of a baseline representative of recent conditions. A climate change scenario, based on simulations by a general circulation model driven by the SRES-A2 scenario of radiative forcing, accounts for an average warming of + 3.3 deg. C over the watershed and marked winter increase and summer decrease in precipitation. To illustrate a possible reduction in nitrate pollution from agricultural origin, a scenario of good agricultural practices was considered, introducing catch crops and a 20% decrease in nitrogen fertilisation. Future point source pollution was estimated following the assumptions embedded in scenario SRES-A2 regarding demographic, economic and technologic changes, leading to reductions of 30 to 75% compared to 2000, depending on the pollutants. Four models, addressing separate components of the river system (agronomical model, hydrogeological model, land surface model and water quality model), were used to analyse the relative impact of these scenarios on water quality, in light of their impact on hydrology and crop production. The first-order driving factor of water quality over the 21st century is the projected reduction of point source pollution, inducing a noticeable decrease in eutrophication and oxygen deficits downstream from Paris. The impact of climate change on these terms is driven by the warming of the water column. It enhances algal growth in spring and the loss factors responsible for phytoplankton mortality in late summer (grazers and viruses). In contrast, increased seasonal contrasts in river discharge have a negligible impact on river water quality, as do the changes in riverine nitrate concentration, which never gets limiting. The latter changes have a similar magnitude

  15. The long-term effect of perspective change on the emotional intensity of autobiographical memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekiguchi, Takahiro; Nonaka, Saori

    2014-01-01

    Autobiographical memories can be recalled from either a field (first-person) or an observer (third-person) perspective. Previous studies have reported that field-to-observer perspective change reduced the emotional intensity of recalled events. In the present study, we examined whether this effect has a long duration by employing follow-up measurements. The participants were asked to recall the same events repeatedly across three sessions (S1, S2, and S3): S2 was conducted about three days after S1, and S3 was conducted about four weeks after S2. The results showed a reduction in the emotional intensity of the recalled events when the perspective was changed from field to observer at S2. More importantly, this reduction in emotional intensity persisted until S3. These effects were not observed under observer-to-field perspective change at S2. These results suggest that observer perspective taking can cause plastic change in the autobiographical memory system.

  16. Changes in body mass index in long-term childhood cancer survivors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Santen, HM; Geskus, Ronald B; Raemaekers, Steven; van Trotsenburg, A S Paul; Vulsma, Thomas; van der Pal, Helena J H; Caron, Hubert N; Kremer, Leontien C M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported changes in the body mass index (BMI) with time in childhood cancer survivors (CCSs) during follow-up. The limitations of these studies include that they described only a subgroup of survivors or used questionnaires with self-reported heights and weights.

  17. Changes in body mass index in long-term childhood cancer survivors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Santen, Hanneke M.; Geskus, Ronald B.; Raemaekers, Steven; van Trotsenburg, A. S. Paul; Vulsma, Thomas; van der Pal, Helena J. H.; Caron, Hubert N.; Kremer, Leontien C. M.

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have reported changes in the body mass index (BMI) with time in childhood cancer survivors (CCSs) during follow-up. The limitations of these studies include that they described only a subgroup of survivors or used questionnaires with self-reported heights and weights. The goal of

  18. Climate change and the long-term viability of the World's busiest heavy haul ice road

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullan, Donal; Swindles, Graeme; Patterson, Tim; Galloway, Jennifer; Macumber, Andrew; Falck, Hendrik; Crossley, Laura; Chen, Jie; Pisaric, Michael

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world's busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

  19. Long-term culture change related to rapid response system implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Jennifer; Johansson, Anna; Lennes, Inga; Hsu, Douglas; Tess, Anjala; Howell, Michael

    2014-12-01

    Increasing attention to patient safety in training hospitals may come at the expense of trainee autonomy and professional growth. This study sought to examine changes in medical trainees' self-reported behaviour after the institution-wide implementation of a rapid response system. We conducted a two-point cross-sectional survey of medical trainees in 2006, during the implementation of a rapid response system, and in 2010, in a single academic medical centre. A novel instrument was used to measure trainee likelihood of calling for supervisory assistance, perception of autonomy, and comfort in managing decompensating patients. Non-parametric tests to assess for change were used and year of training was evaluated as an effect modifier. Response rates were 38% in 2006 and 70% in 2010. After 5 years of the full implementation of the rapid response system, residents were significantly more likely to report calling their attending physicians for assistance (rising from 40% to 65% of relevant situations; p autonomy at 5 years after the implementation of the rapid response system. These changes were mirrored in the actual use of the rapid response system, which increased by 41% during the 5-year period after adjustment for patient volume (p < 0.0001). A primary team-focused implementation of a rapid response system was associated with durable changes in resident physicians' reported behaviour, including increased comfort with involving more experienced physicians and managing unstable patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Seasonal and long-term changes in pH in the Dutch coastal zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Provoost, P.; Van Heuven, S.; Soetaert, K.E.R.; Laane, R.W.P.M.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent observations and modelling studies suggest that biogeochemical changes can mask atmospheric CO2-induced pH decreases. Data collected by the Dutch monitoring authorities in different coastal systems (North Sea, Wadden Sea, Ems-Dollard, Eastern Scheldt and Scheldt estuary) since 1975 provide an

  1. Seasonal and long-term changes in pH in the Dutch coastal zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Provoost, P.; van Heuven, S.; Soetaert, K.; Laane, R. W. P. M.; Middelburg, J. J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent observations and modelling studies suggest that biogeochemical changes can mask atmospheric CO(2)-induced pH decreases. Data collected by the Dutch monitoring authorities in different coastal systems (North Sea, Wadden Sea, Ems-Dollard, Eastern Scheldt and Scheldt estuary) since 1975 provide

  2. Detecting long-term changes to vegetation in northern Canada using the Landsat satellite image archive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraser, R H; Olthof, I; Carrière, M; Deschamps, A; Pouliot, D

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of coarse resolution (∼1 km) satellite imagery has provided evidence of vegetation changes in arctic regions since the mid-1980s that may be attributable to climate warming. Here we investigate finer-scale changes to northern vegetation over the same period using stacks of 30 m resolution Landsat TM and ETM + satellite images. Linear trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tasseled cap indices are derived for four widely spaced national parks in northern Canada. The trends are related to predicted changes in fractional shrub and other vegetation covers using regression tree classifiers trained with plot measurements and high resolution imagery. We find a consistent pattern of greening (6.1–25.5% of areas increasing) and predicted increases in vascular vegetation in all four parks that is associated with positive temperature trends. Coarse resolution (3 km) NDVI trends were not detected in two of the parks that had less intense greening. A range of independent studies and observations corroborate many of the major changes observed.

  3. Therapeutic Responses of Psychopathic Sexual Offenders: Treatment Attrition, Therapeutic Change, and Long-Term Recidivism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olver, Mark E.; Wong, Stephen C. P.

    2009-01-01

    The authors examined the therapeutic responses of psychopathic sex offenders (greater than or equal to 25 Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; PCL-R) in terms of treatment dropout and therapeutic change, as well as sexual and violent recidivism over a 10-year follow-up among 156 federally incarcerated sex offenders treated in a high-intensity inpatient…

  4. Personality characteristics in adolescence predict long-term changes in body fatness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koppes, L.L.J.; de Boer, M.R.; Samoocha, D.; Kreuk, I.M.; Pouwer, F.; Twisk, J.W.R.; van Mechelen, W.

    2008-01-01

    Five personality characteristics were assessed in 312 adolescent boys and girls, and investigated in relation to the change in body fat percentage over 22 years of follow up. Boys with low levels of Social Inadequacy and girls with high levels of Recalcitrance showed relatively large gains in body

  5. Volcanic ash deposition and long-term vegetation change on Subantarctic Marion Island

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yeloff, D.; Mauquoy, D.S.; Barber, K.; Way, S.; van Geel, B.; Turney, C.S.M.

    2007-01-01

    A c. 5500 year record of peatland development and vegetation change was generated from a core recovered from an Agrostis magellanica peat bog on subantarctic Marion Island, using palynomorph, plant macrofossil, and tephra analyses. Two tephra horizons (both 17 cm thick) were identified and dated to

  6. Personality characteristics in adolescence predict long-term changes in body fatness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koppes, Lando L J; de Boer, Michiel R; Samoocha, David

    2008-01-01

    Five personality characteristics were assessed in 312 adolescent boys and girls, and investigated in relation to the change in body fat percentage over 22 years of follow up. Boys with low levels of Social Inadequacy and girls with high levels of Recalcitrance showed relatively large gains in bod...

  7. Spatial characterization of long-term hydrological change in the Arkavathy watershed adjacent to Bangalore, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penny, Gopal; Srinivasan, Veena; Dronova, Iryna; Lele, Sharachchandra; Thompson, Sally

    2018-01-01

    The complexity and heterogeneity of human water use over large spatial areas and decadal timescales can impede the understanding of hydrological change, particularly in regions with sparse monitoring of the water cycle. In the Arkavathy watershed in southern India, surface water inflows to major reservoirs decreased over a 40-year period during which urbanization, groundwater depletion, modification of the river network, and changes in agricultural practices also occurred. These multiple, interacting drivers combined with limited hydrological monitoring make attribution of the causes of diminishing water resources in the watershed challenging and impede effective policy responses. To mitigate these challenges, we developed a novel, spatially distributed dataset to understand hydrological change by characterizing the residual trends in surface water extent that remain after controlling for precipitation variations and comparing the trends with historical land use maps to assess human drivers of change. Using an automated classification approach with subpixel unmixing, we classified water extent in nearly 1700 man-made lakes, or tanks, in Landsat images from 1973 to 2010. The classification results compared well with a reference dataset of water extent of tanks (R2 = 0.95). We modeled the water extent of 42 clusters of tanks in a multiple regression on simple hydrological covariates (including precipitation) and time. Inter-annual variability in precipitation accounted for 63 % of the predicted variability in water extent. However, precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends in any part of the watershed. After controlling for precipitation variability, we found statistically significant temporal trends in water extent, both positive and negative, in 13 of the clusters. Based on a water balance argument, we inferred that these trends likely reflect a non-stationary relationship between precipitation and watershed runoff. Independently of

  8. Spatial characterization of long-term hydrological change in the Arkavathy watershed adjacent to Bangalore, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Penny

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The complexity and heterogeneity of human water use over large spatial areas and decadal timescales can impede the understanding of hydrological change, particularly in regions with sparse monitoring of the water cycle. In the Arkavathy watershed in southern India, surface water inflows to major reservoirs decreased over a 40-year period during which urbanization, groundwater depletion, modification of the river network, and changes in agricultural practices also occurred. These multiple, interacting drivers combined with limited hydrological monitoring make attribution of the causes of diminishing water resources in the watershed challenging and impede effective policy responses. To mitigate these challenges, we developed a novel, spatially distributed dataset to understand hydrological change by characterizing the residual trends in surface water extent that remain after controlling for precipitation variations and comparing the trends with historical land use maps to assess human drivers of change. Using an automated classification approach with subpixel unmixing, we classified water extent in nearly 1700 man-made lakes, or tanks, in Landsat images from 1973 to 2010. The classification results compared well with a reference dataset of water extent of tanks (R2  =  0.95. We modeled the water extent of 42 clusters of tanks in a multiple regression on simple hydrological covariates (including precipitation and time. Inter-annual variability in precipitation accounted for 63 % of the predicted variability in water extent. However, precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends in any part of the watershed. After controlling for precipitation variability, we found statistically significant temporal trends in water extent, both positive and negative, in 13 of the clusters. Based on a water balance argument, we inferred that these trends likely reflect a non-stationary relationship between precipitation and watershed

  9. Mapping Long-Term Changes in Mangrove Species Composition and Distribution in the Sundarbans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoj Kumer Ghosh

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Sundarbans mangrove forest is an important resource for the people of the Ganges Delta. It plays an important role in the local as well as global ecosystem by absorbing carbon dioxide and other pollutants from air and water, offering protection to millions of people in the Ganges Delta against cyclone and water surges, stabilizing the shore line, trapping sediment and nutrients, purifying water, and providing services for human beings, such as fuel wood, medicine, food, and construction materials. However, this mangrove ecosystem is under threat, mainly due to climate change and anthropogenic factors. Anthropogenic and climate change-induced degradation, such as over-exploitation of timber and pollution, sea level rise, coastal erosion, increasing salinity, effects of increasing number of cyclones and higher levels of storm surges function as recurrent threats to mangroves in the Sundarbans. In this situation, regular and detailed information on mangrove species composition, their spatial distribution and the changes taking place over time is very important for a thorough understanding of mangrove biodiversity, and this information can also lead to the adoption of management practices designed for the maximum sustainable yield of the Sundarbans forest resources. We employed a maximum likelihood classifier technique to classify images recorded by the Landsat satellite series and used post classification comparison techniques to detect changes at the species level. The image classification resulted in overall accuracies of 72%, 83%, 79% and 89% for the images of 1977, 1989, 2000 and 2015, respectively. We identified five major mangrove species and detected changes over the 38-year (1977–2015 study period. During this period, both Heritiera fomes and Excoecaria agallocha decreased by 9.9%, while Ceriops decandra, Sonneratia apelatala, and Xylocarpus mekongensis increased by 12.9%, 380.4% and 57.3%, respectively.

  10. Ikh Turgen Mountain Glacier Change and 3d Surface Extents Prediction Using Long Term Landsat Image and Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Erdenebat, Erdenetogtokh; Chogsom, Bolorchuluun; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag; Nanzad, Lkhagvadorj

    2018-04-01

    The glacier is most important the freshwater resources and indicator of the climate change. The researchers noted that during last decades the glacier is melting due to global warming. The study calculates a spatial distribution of protentional change of glacier coverage in the Ikh Turgen mountain of Western Mongolia, and it integrates long-term climate data and satellite datasets. Therefore, in this experiment has tried to estimation three-dimensional surface area of the glacier. For this purpose, Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) was applied to decision tree approach, using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and LC8 imagery for 1975-2016, a surface and slope for digital elevation model, precipitation and air temperature historical data of meteorological station. The potential volume area significantly changed glacier cover of the Ikh Turgen Mountain, and the area affected by highly variable precipitation and air temperature regimes. Between 1972 and 2016, a potential area of glacier area has been decreased in Ikh Turgen mountain region.

  11. Long-term iron deficiency: Tracing changes in the proteome of different pea (Pisum sativum L.) cultivars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meisrimler, Claudia-Nicole; Wienkoop, Stefanie; Lyon, David; Geilfus, Christoph-Martin; Lüthje, Sabine

    2016-05-17

    Iron deficiency (-Fe) is one of the major problems in crop production. Dicots, like pea (Pisum sativum L.), are Strategy I plants, which induce a group of specific enzymes such as Fe(III)-chelate reductase (FRO), Fe responsive transporter (IRT) and H(+)-ATPase (HA) at the root plasma membrane under -Fe. Different species and cultivars have been shown to react diversely to -Fe. Furthermore, different kinds of experimental set-ups for -Fe have to be distinguished: i) short-term vs. long-term, ii) constant vs. acute alteration and iii) buffered vs. unbuffered systems. The presented work compares the effects of constant long-term -Fe in an unbuffered system on roots of four different pea cultivars in a timely manner (12, 19 and 25days). To differentiate the effects of -Fe and plant development, control plants (+Fe) were analyzed in comparison to -Fe plants. Besides physiological measurements, an integrative study was conducted using a comprehensive proteome analysis. Proteins, related to stress adaptation (e.g. HSP), reactive oxygen species related proteins and proteins of the mitochondrial electron transport were identified to be changed in their abundance. Regulations and possible functions of identified proteins are discussed. Pea (Pisum sativum L.) belongs to the legume family (Fabaceae) and is an important crop plant due to high Fe, starch and protein contents. According to FAOSTAT data (September 2015), world production of the garden pea quadrupled from 1970 to 2012. Since the initial studies by Gregor Mendel, the garden pea became the most-characterized legume and has been used in numerous investigations in plant biochemistry and physiology, but is not well represented in the "omics"-related fields. A major limitation in pea production is the Fe availability from soils. Adaption mechanisms to Fe deficiency vary between species, and even cultivars have been shown to react diversely. A label-free proteomic approach, in combination with physiological measurements

  12. Assessing the ecological long-term impact of wastewater irrigation on soil and water based on bioassays and chemical analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Elisabeth; Hecht, Fabian; Schnellbacher, Nadine; Ternes, Thomas A; Wick, Arne; Wode, Florian; Coors, Anja

    2015-11-01

    The reuse of treated wastewater for irrigation and groundwater recharge can counteract water scarcity and reduce pollution of surface waters, but assessing its environmental risk should likewise consider effects associated to the soil. The present study therefore aimed at determining the impact of wastewater irrigation on the habitat quality of water after soil passage and of soil after percolation by applying bioassays and chemical analysis. Lab-scale columns of four different soils encompassing standard European soil and three field soils of varying characteristics and pre-contamination were continuously percolated with treated wastewater to simulate long-term irrigation. Wastewater and its percolates were tested for immobilization of Daphnia magna and growth inhibition of green algae (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and water lentils (Lemna minor). The observed phytotoxicity of the treated wastewater was mostly reduced by soil passage, but in some percolates also increased for green algae. Chemical analysis covering an extensive set of wastewater-born organic pollutants demonstrated that many of them were considerably reduced by soil passage, particularly through peaty soils. Taken together, these results indicated that wastewater-born phytotoxic substances may be removed by soil passage, while existing soil pollutants (e.g. metals) may leach and impair percolate quality. Soils with and without wastewater irrigation were tested for growth of plants (Avena sativa, Brassica napus) and soil bacteria (Arthrobacter globiformis) and reproduction of collembolans (Folsomia candida) and oligochaetes (Enchytraeus crypticus, Eisenia fetida). The habitat quality of the standard and two field soils appeared to be deteriorated by wastewater percolation for at least one organism (enchytraeids, plants or bacteria), while for two pre-contaminated field soils it also was improved (for plants and/or enchytraeids). Wastewater percolation did not seem to raise soil concentrations

  13. An Efficient Graph-based Method for Long-term Land-use Change Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yipeng Zhang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Statistical analysis of land-use change plays an important role in sustainable land management and has received increasing attention from scholars and administrative departments. However, the statistical process involving spatial overlay analysis remains difficult and needs improvement to deal with mass land-use data. In this paper, we introduce a spatio-temporal flow network model to reveal the hidden relational information among spatio-temporal entities. Based on graph theory, the constant condition of saturated multi-commodity flow is derived. A new method based on a network partition technique of spatio-temporal flow network are proposed to optimize the transition statistical process. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method is verified through experiments using land-use data in Hunan from 2009 to 2014. In the comparison among three different land-use change statistical methods, the proposed method exhibits remarkable superiority in efficiency.

  14. Long-term changes in soil pH across major forest ecosystems in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuanhe; Li, Pin; He, Honglin; Zhao, Xia; Datta, Arindam; Ma, Wenhong; Zhang, Ying; Liu, Xuejun; Han, Wenxuan; Wilson, Maxwell C.; Fang, Jingyun

    2015-02-01

    Atmospheric acidic deposition has been a major environmental problem since the industrial revolution. However, our understanding of the effect of acidic deposition on soil pH is inconclusive. Here we examined temporal variations in topsoil pH and their relationships with atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition across China's forests from the 1980s to the 2000s. To accomplish this goal, we conducted artificial neural network simulations using historical soil inventory data from the 1980s and a data set synthesized from literature published after 2000. Our results indicated that significant decreases in soil pH occurred in broadleaved forests, while minor changes were observed in coniferous and mixed coniferous and broadleaved forests. The magnitude of soil pH change was negatively correlated with atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition. This relationship highlights the need for stringent measures that reduce sulfur and nitrogen emissions so as to maintain ecosystem structure and function.

  15. Potential long-term impacts of changes in US vehicle fuel efficiency standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezdek, Roger H.; Wendling, Robert M.

    2005-01-01

    Changes in corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards have not been made due, in part, to concerns over their negative impact on the economy and jobs. This paper simulates the effects of enhanced CAFE standards through 2030 and finds that such changes could increase GDP and create 300,000 jobs distributed widely across states, industries, and occupations. In addition, enhanced CAFE standards could, each year, reduce US oil consumption by 30 billion gallons, save drivers $40 billion, and reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by 100 million tons. However, there is no free lunch. There would be widespread job displacement within many industries, occupations, and states, and increased CAFE standards require that fuel economy be given priority over other vehicle improvements, increase the purchase price of vehicles, require manufacturers to produce vehicles that they otherwise would not, and require consumers to purchase vehicles that would not exist except for CAFE

  16. Changes in Jump-Down Performance After Space Flight: Short- and Long-Term Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kofman, I. S.; Reschke, M. F.; Cerisano, J. M.; Fisher, E. A.; Lawrence, E. L.; Peters, B. T.; Bloomberg, J. J.

    2010-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Successful jump performance requires functional coordination of visual, vestibular, and somatosensory systems, which are affected by prolonged exposure to microgravity. Astronauts returning from space flight exhibit impaired ability to coordinate effective landing strategies when jumping from a platform to the ground. This study compares the jump strategies used by astronauts before and after flight, the changes to those strategies within a test session, and the recoveries in jump-down performance parameters across several postflight test sessions. These data were obtained as part of an ongoing interdisciplinary study (Functional Task Test, FTT) designed to evaluate both astronaut postflight functional performance and related physiological changes. METHODS Six astronauts from short-duration (Shuttle) and three from long-duration (International Space Station) flights performed 3 two-footed jumps from a platform 30 cm high. A force plate measured the ground reaction forces and center-of-pressure displacement from the landings. Muscle activation data were collected from the medial gastrocnemius and anterior tibialis of both legs using surface electromyography electrodes. Two load cells in the platform measured the load exerted by each foot during the takeoff phase of the jump. Data were collected in 2 preflight sessions, on landing day (Shuttle only), and 1, 6, and 30 days after flight. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION Many of the astronauts tested were unable to maintain balance on their first postflight jump landing but recovered by the third jump, showing a learning progression in which the performance improvement could be attributed to adjustments of strategy on takeoff, landing, or both. Takeoff strategy changes were evident in air time (time between takeoff and landing), which was significantly reduced after flight, and also in increased asymmetry in foot latencies on takeoff. Landing modifications were seen in changes in ground reaction force curves. The

  17. Long-Term Changes in Species Composition and Relative Abundances of Sharks at a Provisioning Site

    OpenAIRE

    Brunnschweiler, Juerg M.; Abrantes, Kátya G.; Barnett, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Diving with sharks, often in combination with food baiting/provisioning, has become an important product of today's recreational dive industry. Whereas the effects baiting/provisioning has on the behaviour and abundance of individual shark species are starting to become known, there is an almost complete lack of equivalent data from multi-species shark diving sites. In this study, changes in species composition and relative abundances were determined at the Shark Reef Marine Reserve, a multi-...

  18. Long-term changes in the fish assemblage of a neotropical hydroelectric reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsi, M L; Britton, J R

    2014-06-01

    The changes in the fish assemblage of the Capivara Reservoir, Brazil, were assessed over a 20 year period. Of 50 native fishes present in the initial samples, 27 were no longer present in the final samples, but there had been an addition of 11 invasive fishes, suggesting the occurrence of substantial shifts in fish diversity and abundance. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  19. Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavas, Daniel R.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Gao, Xuejie

    2009-06-15

    Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce significant climate change over the next century and beyond, but the impacts on society remain highly uncertain. This work examines potential climate change impacts on the productivity of five major crops in northeastern China: canola, corn, potato, rice, and winter wheat. In addition to determining domain-wide trends, the objective is to identify vulnerable and emergent regions under future climate conditions, defined as having a greater than 10% decrease and increase in productivity, respectively. Data from the ICTP RegCM3 regional climate model for baseline (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) periods under A2 scenario conditions are used as input in the EPIC agro-ecosystem simulation model in the domain [30ºN, 108ºE] to [42ºN, 123ºE]. Simulations are performed with and without the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect. Results indicate that aggregate potential productivity (i.e. if the crop is grown everywhere) increases 6.5% for rice, 8.3% for canola, 18.6% for corn, 22.9% for potato, and 24.9% for winter wheat, although with significant spatial variability for each crop. However, absent the enhanced CO2 fertilization effect, potential productivity declines in all cases ranging from 2.5-12%. Interannual yield variability remains constant or declines in all cases except rice. Climate variables are found to be more significant drivers of simulated yield changes than changes in soil properties, except in the case of potato production in the northwest where the effects of wind erosion are more significant. Overall, in the future period corn and winter wheat benefit significantly in the North China Plain, rice remains dominant in the southeast and emerges in the northeast, potato and corn yields become viable in the northwest, and potato yields suffer in the southwest with no other crop emerging as a clear beneficiary from among those simulated in this study.

  20. Characterization of long-term geological changes for final disposal of spent fuel in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuorela, P.; Blomqvist, R.; Aikaes, T.

    1996-01-01

    The bedrock of Finland is very old and major crustal deformation processes ceased long ago. At present continuous slow processes prevail and geological changes taking place today are very difficult to observe. Anticipated future geological changes are dominated by the renewed development of the continental ice sheet in northern Europe. The present climate will deteriorate to a state amenable to glacier formation. Continuous processes such as groundwater flow and interrelated hydrogeochemical phenomena will be influenced by changes in the climate as well as by developing permafrost. The crust itself will be loaded by the weight of the ice sheet, and will will warp down. The final disposal programme has been devised with even more exceptional future changes in mind. The process of site identification in the site selection research programme has been developed to consider the eventuality of the future bedrock movements. Analysis of bedrock geometry and block patterns, together with related fracture zones assists in selecting a repository site where the risks of accumulation of large stresses, and their subsequent release as shear movements, can be minimized. By studying the prevailing conditions and tracing the record of earlier events an understanding of the relevant processes in general is developed. Paleo-hydrogeology is one of the areas which can provide information relating to 'why the conditions at the site today are as they are'. Although it is not possible to predict the future behavior of a site in a detailed manner, it is possible to constrain the scenarios needed in the safety assessment by establishing and documenting real events that have sometimes occurred, and that will most probably be repeated. (authors). 31 refs., 8 figs

  1. Geospatial analysis of long-term morphological changes in Cochin estuary, SW coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.; Gopinath, G.; Manimurali, R.; Muraleedharan, K.R.

    are complex, where resource and management systems often confront with multiple conflicts. Estuarine functioning is case sensitive to changes in environmental factors and human interventions. Morphology of estuaries are generally characterized by the strong... for future. Synchronous environmental data would be useful in understanding the carrying capacity and problems and potentialities of fisheries, tourism and navigation. CONCLUSION In the discussion above, we examined the long period geospatial information...

  2. Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manabe, S.; Milly, P.C.D.; Wetherald, R.

    2004-01-01

    By use of a coupled ocean atmosphere-land model, this study explores the changes of water availability, as measured by river discharge and soil moisture, that could occur by the middle of the 21st century in response to combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols based upon the "IS92a" scenario. In addition, it presents the simulated change in water availability that might be realized in a few centuries in response to a quadrupling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Averaging the results over extended periods, the radiatively forced changes, which are very similar between the two sets of experiments, were successfully extracted. The analysis indicates that the discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by up to 20% (of the pre-Industrial Period level) by the middle of the 21st century and by up to 40% or more in a few centuries. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers increase substantially. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller, with both positive and negative signs. For soil moisture, the results of this study indicate reductions during much of the year in many semiarid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. As a percentage, the reduction is particularly large during the dry season. From middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter.

  3. Long-term change in limnology and invertebrates in Alaskan boreal wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, R.M.; Lovvorn, J.R.; Heglund, P.J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is more pronounced at high northern latitudes, and may be affecting the physical, chemical, and biological attributes of the abundant wetlands in boreal forests. On the Yukon Flats, located in the boreal forest of northeast Alaska, wetlands originally sampled during 1985-1989 were re-sampled for water chemistry and macroinvertebrates in summer 2001-2003. Wetlands sampled lost on average 19% surface water area between these periods. Total nitrogen and most metal cations (Na, Mg, and Ca, but not K) increased between these periods, whereas total phosphorus and chlorophyll a (Chl a) declined. These changes were greater in wetlands that had experienced more drying (decreased surface area). Compared with 1985-1989, densities of cladocerans, copepods, and ostracods in both June and August were much higher in 2002-2003, whereas densities of amphipods, gastropods, and chironomid larvae were generally lower. In comparisons among wetlands in 2002-2003 only, amphipod biomass was lower in wetlands with lower Chl a, which might help explain the decline of amphipods since the late 1980s when Chl a was higher. The decline in Chl a corresponded to greatly increased zooplankton density in June, suggesting a shift in carbon flow from scrapers and deposit-feeders to water-column grazers. Declines in benthic and epibenthic deposit-feeding invertebrates suggest important food web effects of climate change in otherwise pristine wetlands of the boreal forest. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  4. Non-stationarity driven by long-term change in catchment storage: possibilities and implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Hughes

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available "Non-stationarity" with reference to hydrology is a term applied to many situations (Milly et al., 2008. While climate change non-stationarity is often examined, these effects can provide a test for assumptions of runoff generation process impliedin rainfall–runoff (RR models. Observations from South-western Australia (SWA over the past 40 years show a decline in rainfall and reductions in runoff. Runoff and rainfall relationships in SWA show a significant shift over the past 40 years suggesting a change in runoff generation and catchment state. This has challenged the nature of assumed runoff generation process in SWA as well as the veracity of conceptual RR model structure. We expand on some of the lessons learned from SWA and discuss the climatic and geomorphic conditions that may make reasonable predictions of runoff very difficult with RR models calibrated in traditional ways. Catchment storage has a significant interaction with runoff generation and we examine the situations where these may change in the longer term. We suggest some strategies in terms of model structure and calibration that may improve predictive performance in such situations.

  5. Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.

    2014-05-01

    Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

  6. Genesis, goals and achievements of Long-Term Ecological Research at the global scale: A critical review of ILTER and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirtl, M; T Borer, E; Djukic, I; Forsius, M; Haubold, H; Hugo, W; Jourdan, J; Lindenmayer, D; McDowell, W H; Muraoka, H; Orenstein, D E; Pauw, J C; Peterseil, J; Shibata, H; Wohner, C; Yu, X; Haase, P

    2018-06-01

    Since its founding in 1993 the International Long-term Ecological Research Network (ILTER) has gone through pronounced development phases. The current network comprises 44 active member LTER networks representing 700 LTER Sites and ~80 LTSER Platforms across all continents, active in the fields of ecosystem, critical zone and socio-ecological research. The critical challenges and most important achievements of the initial phase have now become state-of-the-art in networking for excellent science. At the same time increasing integration, accelerating technology, networking of resources and a strong pull for more socially relevant scientific information have been modifying the mission and goals of ILTER. This article provides a critical review of ILTER's mission, goals, development and impacts. Major characteristics, tools, services, partnerships and selected examples of relative strengths relevant for advancing ILTER are presented. We elaborate on the tradeoffs between the needs of the scientific community and stakeholder expectations. The embedding of ILTER in an increasingly collaborative landscape of global environmental observation and ecological research networks and infrastructures is also reflected by developments of pioneering regional and national LTER networks such as SAEON in South Africa, CERN/CEOBEX in China, TERN in Australia or eLTER RI in Europe. The primary role of ILTER is currently seen as a mechanism to investigate ecosystem structure, function, and services in response to a wide range of environmental forcings using long-term, place-based research. We suggest four main fields of activities and advancements for the next decade through development/delivery of a: (1) Global multi-disciplinary community of researchers and research institutes; (2) Strategic global framework and strong partnerships in ecosystem observation and research; (3) Global Research Infrastructure (GRI); and (4) a scientific knowledge factory for societally relevant information

  7. Delineating and identifying long-term changes in the whooping crane (Grus americana) migration corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, Aaron T.; Rabbe, Matt; Juliusson, Lara M.; Bidwell, Mark T.; Craig-Moore, Lea; Brandt, David; Harrell, Wade C.

    2018-01-01

    Defining and identifying changes to seasonal ranges of migratory species is required for effective conservation. Historic sightings of migrating whooping cranes (Grus americana) have served as sole source of information to define a migration corridor in the Great Plains of North America (i.e., Canadian Prairies and United States Great Plains) for this endangered species. We updated this effort using past opportunistic sightings from 1942–2016 (n = 5,055) and more recent (2010–2016) location data from 58 telemetered birds (n = 4,423) to delineate migration corridors that included 50%, 75%, and 95% core areas. All migration corridors were well defined and relatively compact, with the 95% core corridor averaging 294 km wide, although it varied approximately ±40% in width from 170 km in central Texas to 407 km at the international border of the United States and Canada. Based on historic sightings and telemetry locations, we detected easterly movements in locations over time, primarily due to locations west of the median shifting east. This shift occurred from northern Oklahoma to central Saskatchewan at an average rate of 1.2 km/year (0.3–2.8 km/year). Associated with this directional shift was a decrease in distance of locations from the median in the same region averaging -0.7 km/year (-0.3–-1.3 km/year), suggesting a modest narrowing of the migration corridor. Changes in the corridor over the past 8 decades suggest that agencies and organizations interested in recovery of this species may need to modify where conservation and recovery actions occur. Whooping cranes showed apparent plasticity in their migratory behavior, which likely has been necessary for persistence of a wetland-dependent species migrating through the drought-prone Great Plains. Behavioral flexibility will be useful for whooping cranes to continue recovery in a future of uncertain climate and land use changes throughout their annual range.

  8. [Clinical and physiological evaluation of bone changes among astronauts after long-term space flights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigoriev, A. I.; Oganov, V. S.; Bakulin, A. V.; Poliakov, V. V.; Voronin, L. I.; Morgun, V. V.; Shnaider, V. S.; Murashko, L. V.; Novikov, V. E.; LeBlank, A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Results of the joint Russian/US studies of the effect of microgravity on bone tissues in 18 cosmonauts on return from 4.5- to 14.5-month long missions are presented. Dual-energy x-ray gamma-absorbtiometry (QDR-1000 W, Hologic, USA) was used to measure bone mineral density (BMD, g/cm2) and mineral content (BMC, g) in the whole body, the scalp including cervical vertebra, arms, ribs, sternal and lumbar regions of the spinal column, pelvis and legs. A clearly defined dependence of topography of changes upon the position of a skeletal segment in the gravity vector was established. The greatest BMD losses have been observed in the skeleton of the lower body, i.e. in pelvic bones (-11.99 +/- 1.22%), lumbar vertebra (-5.63 +/- 0.817%), and in proximal femur, particularly in the femoral neck (-8.17 +/- 1.24%). Bones of the upper skeleton were either unchanged (insignificant) or showed a positive trend. Overall changes in bone mass of the whole skeleton of male cosmonauts during the period of about 6 months on mission made up -1.41 +/- 0.406% and suggest the mean balance of calcium over flight equal to -227 +/- 62.8 mg/day. Reasoning is given to qualify these states of cosmonauts' bone tissues as local osteopenia. On the literature and results of authors' clinical evidence, discussed is availability of the densitometric data for predicting risk of trauma. A biological nature of the changes under observation is hypothesized.

  9. Long-term climate change: the evolution of shield surface boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peltier, W.R.

    2007-01-01

    The Earths surface during the Pleistocene epoch has been repeatedly subjected to glacial cycles that have markedly influenced both the landscape and surface boundary conditions that, in part, governed past evolution of deep-seated Shield groundwater flow domains. As part of the Deep Geologic Repository Technology Programme simulations of the last Laurentide glacial episode have been undertaken with the University of Toronto Glacial System Model (GSM). The purpose of these simulations is to yield constrained predictions of the magnitude and time rate of change of peri-glacial, glacial and boreal regimes that have perturbed Shield flow domains in the geologic past. A detailed model of long timescale climate change has been developed, which is able to make useful predictions of the process of continental glaciation and deglaciation that has occurred in the past due to the small changes in the effective intensity of the Sun at the location of the Earth caused by gravitational many body effects in Solar System evolution. Based upon the success of this model we are able to assert that we have demonstrated a basic understanding of why this process has continually recurred in the past on a timescale of approximately 100 000 years. Continuing work with the Glacial Systems Model and efforts to provide explicit linkage to numerical analyses of sub-surface hydrology are beginning to yield a new understanding of groundwater flow system evolution and response to glacial perturbations. In so doing this understanding is not only providing a reasoned basis on which to examine issues of geosphere stability as relevant to the safety of a hypothetical repository for used nuclear fuel in Shield terrain, but is also offering an improved basis for the integrated interpretation of multi-disciplinary geo-scientific data necessary for development of a descriptive geosphere model that is seen as fundamental to the repository Safety Case. (author)

  10. Long-term and seasonal Caspian Sea level change from satellite gravity and altimeter measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. L.; Wilson, C. R.; Tapley, B. D.; Save, H.; Cretaux, Jean-Francois

    2017-03-01

    We examine recent Caspian Sea level change by using both satellite radar altimetry and satellite gravity data. The altimetry record for 2002-2015 shows a declining level at a rate that is approximately 20 times greater than the rate of global sea level rise. Seasonal fluctuations are also much larger than in the world oceans. With a clearly defined geographic region and dominant signal magnitude, variations in the sea level and associated mass changes provide an excellent way to compare various approaches for processing satellite gravity data. An altimeter time series derived from several successive satellite missions is compared with mass measurements inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data in the form of both spherical harmonic (SH) and mass concentration (mascon) solutions. After correcting for spatial leakage in GRACE SH estimates by constrained forward modeling and accounting for steric and terrestrial water processes, GRACE and altimeter observations are in complete agreement at seasonal and longer time scales, including linear trends. This demonstrates that removal of spatial leakage error in GRACE SH estimates is both possible and critical to improving their accuracy and spatial resolution. Excellent agreement between GRACE and altimeter estimates also provides confirmation of steric Caspian Sea level change estimates. GRACE mascon estimates (both the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) coastline resolution improvement version 2 solution and the Center for Space Research (CSR) regularized) are also affected by leakage error. After leakage corrections, both JPL and CSR mascon solutions also agree well with altimeter observations. However, accurate quantification of leakage bias in GRACE mascon solutions is a more challenging problem.

  11. Long-term exposure to residential traffic noise and changes in body weight and waist circumference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jeppe S; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Tjønneland, Anne

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Traffic noise can act as a stressor and disturb sleep, and has been associated with cardiovascular disease. Recent studies suggest a possible association to metabolic outcomes and adiposity through biological mechanisms related to physiological stress and sleep disturbance. OBJECTIVES...... an 10% increased risk for gaining more than 5kg body weight during follow-up (95% CI: 1.04; 1.15) per 10dB higher 5 years exposure preceding follow-up. Exposure to railway noise above 55dB was associated with weight gain (39.9g/year (95% CI: 10.2; 69.6)), but not with a significant change in waist...

  12. Presynaptic muscarinic receptors: Change of sensitivity during long-term drug treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchi, M.; Raiteri, M.

    1986-01-01

    The authors investigate some of the characteristics of auto- and heteroreceptors from different brain areas in male rats; their alteration in sensitivity following chronic drug treatment is monitored. The synaptosomes were prelabeled with tritium-choline or tritium-dopamine and the release of tritium-acetylcholine and tritium-DA was studied in superfusion. It is shown that the difference in susceptibility between auto- and heteroreceptors with respect to changes of sensitivity may represent a further criterion to discriminate between muscarinic receptor subtypes

  13. Influence of long-term gravity vector changes on mesenchymal stem cells in vitro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buravkova, L. B.; Merzlikina, N. V.; Romanov, Yu. A.; Buravkov, S. V.

    2005-08-01

    In vivo and in vitro studies have identified the bone marrow as the primary source of a multipotential mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) that give rise to progenitors for several mesenchymal tissues, including bone, cartilage, tendon, adipose, muscle and hematopoietic-supporting stroma. It is known that MSC are sensitive to chemical signals and mechanical stimuli. It was also suggested that microgravity may influence on progenitor cells and induce abnormalities in cellular differentiation in muscle and skeletal components leading to the changes in physiological regeneration of these tissues. To prove gravitational sensitivity of MSC, we studied the effects of prolonged clinorotation on cultured human MSC (hMSC) morphology, actin cytoskeleton organization and phenotype. It was found that the proliferation rate was significantly decreased during clinorotation but augmented during recovery. The cell cytoskeleton displayed actin filament thinning and altered morphology at clinorotation. The production of interleukin-6 was increased and expression of surface molecules was modified by simulated microgravity. Observed changes of cultured hMSC behavior suggest the gravitational sensitivity of human stromal progenitor cells.

  14. Monitoring the long term vegetation phenology change in Northeast China from 1982 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lingxue; Liu, Tingxiang; Bu, Kun; Yan, Fengqin; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping; Zhang, Shuwen

    2017-11-07

    Global warming has contributed to the extension of the growing season in North Hemisphere. In this paper, we investigated the spatial characteristics of the date of the start of the season (SOS), the date of the end of the season (EOS) and the length of the season (LOS) and their change trends from 1982 to 2015 in Northeast China. Our results showed that there was a significant advance of SOS and a significant delay of EOS, especially in the north part of Northeast China. For the average change slope of EOS in the study area, the delay trend was 0.25 d/y, which was more obvious than the advance trend of -0.13 d/y from the SOS. In particular, the LOS of deciduous needleleaf forest (DNF) and grassland increased with a trend of 0.63 d/y and 0.66 d/y from 1982 to 2015, indicating the growth season increased 21.42 and 22.44 days in a 34-year period, respectively. However, few negative signals were detected nearby Hulun Lake, suggesting that the continuous climate warming in the future may bring no longer growing periods for the grass in the semiarid areas as the drought caused by climate warming may limit the vegetation growth.

  15. Long-term changes of the glacial seismicity: case study from Spitsbergen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajek, Wojciech; Trojanowski, Jacek; Malinowski, Michał

    2016-04-01

    Changes in global temperature balance have proved to have a major impact on the cryosphere, and therefore withdrawing glaciers are the symbol of the warming climate. Our study focuses on year-to-year changes in glacier-generated seismicity. We have processed 7-year long continuous seismological data recorded by the HSP broadband station located in the proximity of Hansbreen glacier (Hornsund, southern Spitsbergen), obtaining seismic activity distribution between 2008 and 2014. We developed a new fuzzy logic algorithm to distinguish between glacier- and non-glacier-origin events. The algorithm takes into account the frequency of seismic signal and the energy flow in certain time interval. Our research has revealed that the number of detected glacier-origin events over last two years has doubled. Annual events distribution correlates well with temperature and precipitation curves, illustrating characteristic yearlong behaviour of glacier seismic activity. To further support our observations, we have analysed 5-year long distribution of glacier-origin tremors detected in the vicinity of the Kronebreen glacier using KBS broadband station located in Ny-Ålesund (western Spitsbergen). We observe a steady increase in the number of detected events. detected each year, however not as significant as for Hornsund dataset.

  16. Long-term changes in the sensitivity of quadrupole mass spectrometers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, W.R.; McCarthy, P.J.; Dylla, H.F.; LaMarche, P.H.; Simpkins, J.E.

    1986-02-01

    We routinely use quadrupole mass spectrometers (QMS) to monitor vacuum conditions, gas purity, and plasma-wall interactions in the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) at Princeton. Two QMS systems have been operating on TFTR continuously for a two-year period. Both QMS systems are absolutely calibrated at weekly intervals using a six-part standard gas mixture. The calibration procedure is based on the use of transfer standards (ion gauge and capacitance manometer) that are calibrated against a primary standard (spinning rotor gauge) on an external vacuum system. We have identified variations in the efficiency of the QMS ionizer and drifts in the sensitivity of the electron multiplier ion detector to be the major reasons for the observed changes in overall OMS sensitivity. Weekly variations in sensitivity greater than 100% have been observed following system bakeout at 150 0 C and with the use of rhenium filaments which were initially in the QMS ionizer. Operation of the QMS systems with tungsten filaments and at constant temperature has yielded more stable operation with weekly sensitivity changes generally being less than 10%. 7 refs., 7 figs

  17. Healthful dietary patterns and long-term weight change among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, D K; Zhang, C; Chavarro, J; Olsen, S; Bao, W; Bjerregaard, A A; Fung, T T; Manson, J E; Hu, F B

    2016-11-01

    Diet represents a key strategy for the prevention of obesity and type 2 diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), although effective dietary patterns to prevent weight gain in the long term are largely unknown. We sought to evaluate whether improvement in overall diet quality is associated with less long-term weight gain among high-risk women with prior GDM. Women with a history of GDM (N=3397) were followed from 1991 to 2011, or until diagnosis of type 2 diabetes or other chronic disease. Usual diet was assessed via food frequency questionnaire every 4 years from which we calculated the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (aHEI-2010), Alternate Mediterranean Diet (AMED) and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) dietary pattern scores. Weight, lifestyle and health-related outcomes were self-reported every 2 years. We estimated the change in dietary score with change in body weight using linear regression models adjusting for age, baseline body mass index (BMI), baseline and simultaneous change in physical activity and smoking status and other risk factors. Women were followed up to 20 years, gaining an average 1.9 kg (s.d.=7.0) per 4-year period. Women in the highest quintile (Q5) of diet change (most improvement in quality) gained significantly less weight per 4-year period than the lowest quintile (Q1; decrease in quality), independent of other risk factors (4-year weight change, aHEI-2010: Q5=1.30 kg vs Q1=3.27 kg; AMED: Q5=0.94 kg vs Q1=2.56 kg, DASH: Q5=0.64 kg vs Q1=2.75 kg). Significant effect modification by BMI (p-interactions diet quality was associated with less weight gain, independent of other lifestyle factors. Post-partum recommendations on diet quality may provide one strategy to prevent long-term weight gain in this high-risk group.

  18. A gradual change between methanogenesis and sulfidogenesis during a long-term UASB treatment of sulfate-rich chemical wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiang; Niu, Qigui; Li, Lu; Hu, Yong; Mribet, Chaimaa; Hojo, Toshimasa; Li, Yu-You

    2018-04-25

    The competition between methane-producing archaea and sulfate-reducing bacteria is an important topic in anaerobic wastewater treatment. In this study, an Up-flow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket Reactor (UASB) was operated for 330 days to evaluate the treatment performance of sulfate-rich wastewater. The effects of competition change between methane production and sulfate reduction on the organic removal efficiency, methane production, and electrons allocation were investigated. Synthetic wastewater was composed of ethanol and acetate with a chemical oxygen demand (COD)/SO 4 2- of 1.0. As a result, the COD removal efficiency achieved in long-term treatment was higher than 90%. During the initial stage, methane production was the dominant reaction. Sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) could only partially oxidize ethanol to acetate, and methane-producing archaea (MPA) utilized acetate for methane production. Methane production declined gradually over the long-term operation, whereas the sulfate-reducing efficiency increased. However, UASB performed well throughout the experiment because there was no significant inhibition. After the complete reduction of the sulfate, MPA converted the remaining COD into methane. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A method for the assessment of long-term changes in carbon stock by construction of a hydropower reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardo, Julio Werner Yoshioka; Mannich, Michael; Hilgert, Stephan; Fernandes, Cristovão Vicente Scapulatempo; Bleninger, Tobias

    2017-09-01

    Sustainability of hydropower reservoirs has been questioned since the detection of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are mainly composed of carbon dioxide and methane. A method to assess the impact on the carbon cycle caused by the transition from a natural river system into a reservoir is presented and discussed. The method evaluates the long term changes in carbon stock instead of the current approach of monitoring and integrating continuous short term fluxes. A case study was conducted in a subtropical reservoir in Brazil, showing that the carbon content within the reservoir exceeds that of the previous landuse. The average carbon sequestration over 43 years since damming was 895 mg C m[Formula: see text] and found to be mainly due to storage of carbon in sediments. These results demonstrate that reservoirs have two opposite effects on the balance of GHGs. By storing organic C in sediments, reservoirs are an important carbon sink. On the other hand, reservoirs increase the flux of methane into the atmosphere. If the sediments of reservoirs could be used for long term C storage, reservoirs might have a positive effect on the balance of GHGs.

  20. Immediate and long-term changes of fundus autofluorescence in continuous wave laser lesions of the retina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Framme, Carsten; Roider, Johann

    2004-01-01

    To determine whether fundus autofluorescence imaging is able to show changes in retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) fluorescence after thermal laser photocoagulation. In vivo imaging of fundus autofluorescence was performed with a scanning laser ophthalmoscope. A laser with a wavelength of 488 nm was used for excitation of the tissue and autofluorescence was detected above 500 nm using a barrier filter. One hundred eight eyes of 87 patients who had had previous laser treatment were monitored. The appearance and size of the laser lesions were documented and correlated to the time of treatment. Immediate changes were observed prospectively in 13 eyes; long-term follow-up was studied retrospectively in 95 eyes. In all patients but one, autofluorescence was decreased in the area of laser lesions 1 hour after laser treatment. After 1 month, previously decreased autofluorescence in all lesions changed to significantly increased autofluorescence, which was stable up to 6 months after treatment. Mixed forms were present approximately 6 to 12 months after treatment, showing a central island of increased autofluorescence surrounded by a ring of decreased autofluorescence. After 1 to 2 years, lesions again changed to complete dark spots, enlarging later on. RPE destruction and subsequent proliferation after continuous wave laser photocoagulation can be visualized noninvasively by autofluorescence imaging. Immediate decreased autofluorescence may indicate acute damage of the RPE, subsequent increased autofluorescence seems to indicate proliferative behavior of the RPE, and final dark spots can indicate RPE atrophy secondary to a denaturation of neurosensory retinal tissue. Thus, autofluorescence can be used in the long-term monitoring of RPE changes after laser treatment. The enlargement of the laser atrophy zone demonstrates the potential risk of visual loss after central laser photocoagulation even years after treatment.

  1. Ultrastructure of mouse intestinal mucosa and changes observed after long term anthraquinone administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufour, P; Gendre, P

    1984-01-01

    In an attempt to study the relative toxicity of anthraquinonic laxatives on intestinal mucosa, we compared in mice the effects of fruit pulp containing sennosides A and B with those of a free anthraquinone, 1-8 dihydroxyanthraquinone. Observations have been made with transmission electron microscopy (EM) after 16 weeks of treatment with the two drugs. Although the doses used in this study were equipotent in terms of laxative activity, no damage to the intestinal tissue was observed with the sennosides. A number of changes, however, were detected in intestinal nervous tissues of all the animals treated with 1-8 dihydroxyanthraquinone, mainly in the form of vacuolisation of the axons, formation of lysosomal structures and in some cases appearances of fibrillar degeneration. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 6 Fig. 7 Fig. 8 Fig. 9 PMID:6510768

  2. Mechanism Of Long Term Change In Electrochrcmism Of LixWO3 Films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagai, Junichi; Kamimori, Tadatoshi; Mizuhashi, Mamoru

    1984-11-01

    The degradation mechanism of gradual decrease of the contrast between colored and bleached states of Lix'. WO3 films with switching cycles was investigated. We made electro-chemical and quantitative chemical analyses to clarify this phenomenon. It was found that the decrease in contrast was mostly attributed to the parallel cathodic shift of emf(x), passibly caused by ion exchange reaction expressed by: WOH + Li+ WOLi + H. Fully ion-exchanged WO3 films showed no appreciable change in spite of the presence of a large amount of Li in them. These films were capable of accepting as much Li as the fresh films did on coloration and reached to the same optical densities. It is concluded that there are two kinds of active sites available for accepting lithium ions in the WO3 structure, one for ion exchange and the other for coloration.

  3. Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryberg, Karen R.; Blomquist, Joel; Sprague, Lori A.; Sekellick, Andrew J.; Keisman, Jennifer

    2018-01-01

    Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Christopher J; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D

    2015-06-12

    The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. Analysing long-term changes of everyday life in an environmental perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2004-01-01

    for increasing consumption in developing countries. This problem of ever increasing quantities of consumption ought to be placed high on the sustainable development agenda, and it calls for research on the dynamics behind the growth to improve the possibilities for curbing it. A real challenge in relation...... to this issue is that the increases in consumption are imperceptible and that most people in the industrialized countries are preoccupied with managing their everyday lives and do not experience that they live in any kind of extreme luxury. Some years ago I wrote a paper dealing with this issue in general terms......The background of this paper is an interest in the ever growing consumption in the industrialized countries. The macro level growth rate changes over time, but most years it is positive and over the long run the increase is impressive – for instance, a growth rate of 2 percent implies a doubling...

  6. Long-term landscape changes in a subalpine spruce-fir forest in central Utah, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse L. Morris1

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: In Western North America, increasing wildfire and outbreaks of native bark beetles have been mediated by warming climate conditions. Bioclimatic models forecast the loss of key high elevation species throughout the region. This study uses retrospective vegetation and fire history data to reconstruct the drivers of past disturbance and environmental change. Understanding the relationship among climate, antecedent disturbances, and the legacy effects of settlement-era logging can help identify the patterns and processes that create landscapes susceptible to bark beetle epidemics. Methods: Our analysis uses data from lake sediment cores, stand inventories, and historical records. Sediment cores were dated with radiometric techniques (14C and 210Pb/137Cs and subsampled for pollen and charcoal to maximize the temporal resolution during the historical period (1800 CE to present and to provide environmental baseline data (last 10,500 years. Pollen data for spruce were calibrated to carbon biomass (C t/ha using standard allometric equations and a transfer function. Charcoal samples were analyzed with statistical models to facilitate peak detection and determine fire recurrence intervals. Results: The Wasatch Plateau has been dominated by Engelmann spruce forests for the last ~10,500 years, with subalpine fir becoming more prominent since 6000 years ago. This landscape has experienced a dynamic fire regime, where burning events are more frequent and of higher magnitude during the last 3000 years. Two important disturbances have impacted Engelmann spruce in the historical period: 1 high-grade logging during the late 19th century; and (2 a high severity spruce beetle outbreak in the late 20th century that killed >90 % of mature spruce (>10 cm dbh. Conclusions: Our study shows that spruce-dominated forests in this region are resilient to a range of climate and disturbance regimes. Several lines of evidence suggest that 19th century logging

  7. Consideration of environmental change in the safety evaluation: Long-term climate scenarios in the Iberian Peninsula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo Jimenez, F.; Ruiz Rivas, C.

    1997-01-01

    The main objective of this report is twofold. On the one hand, to define the most likely sequences of climate states in the Iberian Peninsula for a period of 125 Ka into the future, to the next interglacial stage, 125 Ka AP; on the other hand, to establish potential climate scenarios during such a period of time determining also the variability ranges of primary climate and climate-related variables of interest to the post-closure performance assessment and underground repository safety evaluations. The report reviews the potential effects of environmental changes on the performance of underground radioactive waste repositories, emphasizing the consideration given to long-term climatic changes in radioactive waste disposal system safety evaluations. (Author)

  8. Long-term global and regional brain volume changes following severe traumatic brain injury: A longitudinal study with clinical correlates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sidaros, Annette; Skimminge, Arnold Jesper Møller; Liptrot, Matthew George

    2009-01-01

    with percent brain volume change (%BVC) ranging between − 0.6% and − 9.4% (mean − 4.0%). %BVC correlated significantly with injury severity, functional status at both scans, and with 1-year outcome. Moreover, %BVC improved prediction of long-term functional status over and above what could be predicted using......Traumatic brain injury (TBI) results in neurodegenerative changes that progress for months, perhaps even years post-injury. However, there is little information on the spatial distribution and the clinical significance of this late atrophy. In 24 patients who had sustained severe TBI we acquired 3D...... scan time point using SIENAX. Regional distribution of atrophy was evaluated using tensor-based morphometry (TBM). At the first scan time point, brain parenchymal volume was reduced by mean 8.4% in patients as compared to controls. During the scan interval, patients exhibited continued atrophy...

  9. The role of long-term geologic changes in the regulation of the Canadian nuclear fuel waste management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavelle, P.

    1996-01-01

    It is recognized that the geosphere is a dynamic system over the long time frames of nuclear fuel waste disposal. This paper describes how consideration of a dynamic geosphere has impacted upon the evolving regulatory environment in Canada, and how the approach taken to comply with the regulatory requirements can affect the evaluation of long-term geologic changes. AECB staff opinion is that if the maximum possible effect of geologic changes can be demonstrated to have negligible impact on the safety of a nuclear fuel waste repository, then further consideration of a dynamic geosphere is unnecessary for the current review of the Canadian Nuclear Fuel Waste Management Program. (authors). 7 refs., 4 figs

  10. Long-term geomagnetic changes observed in association with earthquake swarm activities in the Izu Peninsula, Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oshiman, N. [Kyoto University Kyoto (Japan). Disaster Prevention Research Institute; Sasai, Y.; Ishikawa, Y.; Koyama, S. [Tokyo Univ., Tokyo (Japan). Earthquake Research Institute; Honkura, Y. [Tokyo Univ., Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2001-04-01

    Anomalous crustal uplift has continued since 1976 in the Izu Peninsula, Japan. Earthquake swarms have also occurred intermittently off the coast of Ito since 1978. Observations of the total intensity of the geomagnetic field in the peninsula started in 1976 to detect anomalous changes in association with those crustal activities. In particular, a dense continuous observation network using proton magnetometers was established in the northeastern part of the peninsula, immediately after the sea-floor eruption off the coast of Ito in 1989. No remarkable swarm activities were observed there from 1990 to 1992. However, after the occurrence of a small swarm in January 1993, five large swarm activities were observed. At some observation sites, it was observed a remarkable long-term trend in the total geomagnetic field in association with the change in the distribution pattern in the seismicity of the earthquake swarms.

  11. Long-term changes of information environments and computer anxiety of nurse administrators in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majima, Yukie; Izumi, Takako

    2013-01-01

    In Japan, medical information systems, including electronic medical records, are being introduced increasingly at medical and nursing fields. Nurse administrators, who are involved in the introduction of medical information systems and who must make proper judgment, are particularly required to have at least minimal knowledge of computers and networks and the ability to think about easy-to-use medical information systems. However, few of the current generation of nurse administrators studied information science subjects in their basic education curriculum. It can be said that information education for nurse administrators has become a pressing issue. Consequently, in this study, we conducted a survey of participants taking the first level program of the education course for Japanese certified nurse administrators to ascertain the actual conditions, such as the information environments that nurse administrators are in, their anxiety attitude to computers. Comparisons over the seven years since 2004 revealed that although introduction of electronic medical records in hospitals was progressing, little change in attributes of participants taking the course was observed, such as computer anxiety.

  12. Long-term changes in acidity and DOC in throughfall and soil water in Finnish forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ukonmaanaho, Liisa; Starr, Mike; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Nieminen, Tiina M

    2014-11-01

    The main objective of this study was to examine if any detectable trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), sulphate (SO4-S) concentrations and acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in throughfall (TF) and soil water (SW) could be found during 1990-2010 and to relate them to recent changes in decreased acid deposition. The study was conducted in seven boreal coniferous forest sites: four of which are managed and three unmanaged forests sites. Generally, temporal trend showed a significant decrease in SO4-S concentrations in bulk precipitation (BP), TF and SW. At some of the sites, there was an increasing tendency in BP and TF in the DOC concentrations. This feature coincides with decreasing SO4-S concentration, indicating that SO4-S may be an important driver of DOC release from the canopy. However, a slightly increased temperature, larger senescing needle mass and consequently increased decaying activity in the canopy may partly explain the increasing trend in DOC. In SW, no consistent DOC trend was seen. At some sites, the decreased base cation concentrations mostly account for the decrease in the ANC values in SW and TF.

  13. Long-term sequential changes of radiation proctitis and angiopathy in rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, Hiroshi; Kamikonya, Norihiko; Takada, Yasuhiro

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to establish an experimental rat model for late radiation proctitis, and to examine the assessment strategy for late radiation proctitis. A total of 57 Wistar rats were used. Forty-five of the rats were exposed to selective rectal irradiation with a single fraction of 25 Gy. These rats were sacrificed at the 4th, 12th, 24th, and 37th week following irradiation. The remaining 12 rats comprised the control group without irradiation. The rectal mucosa of each rat was evaluated macroscopically and pathologically. The number of vessels in the rectal mucosa was counted microscopically. In addition, the vascular stenosis was evaluated. In the results, the degree of clinical and macroscopic findings decreased following acute proctitis and developed later. In the pathological examination, mucosal changes and microangiopathy were followed up, as well. The absolute number of vessels in the rectum was the greatest at the 12th week following irradiation and was the lowest in the control group. The severity of the microangiopathy was also well evaluated. To conclude, we established an animal experimental model of late radiation proctitis, and also established an assessment strategy to evaluate objectively the severity of late radiation proctitis with focusing on microangiopathy using an animal experimental model. This model can be used as an animal experimental model of radiation-induced microangiopathy. (author)

  14. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, P.N.; Baker, B.L.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Rudeen, D.K.

    1993-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing head values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance

  15. Incorporating long-term climate change in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, P.N.; Baker, B.L.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Rudeen, D.K.

    1994-03-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Applicable regulations (40 CFR 191) require the DOE to evaluate disposal-system performance for 10,000 yr. Climatic changes may affect performance by altering groundwater flow. Paleoclimatic data from southeastern New Mexico and the surrounding area indicate that the wettest and coolest Quaternary climate at the site can be represented by that at the last glacial maximum, when mean annual precipitation was approximately twice that of the present. The hottest and driest climates have been similar to that of the present. The regularity of global glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene confirms that the climate of the last glacial maximum is suitable for use as a cooler and wetter bound for variability during the next 10,000 yr. Climate variability is incorporated into groundwater-flow modeling for WIPP PA by causing hydraulic head in a portion of the model-domain boundary to rise to the ground surface with hypothetical increases in precipitation during the next 10,000 yr. Variability in modeled disposal-system performance introduced by allowing had values to vary over this range is insignificant compared to variability resulting from other causes, including incomplete understanding of transport processes. Preliminary performance assessments suggest that climate variability will not affect regulatory compliance

  16. Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

  17. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  18. Long-term environmental and health implications of morphological change and sediment transport with respect to contaminants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sneddon, Christopher; Copplestone, David; Tyler, Andrew; Hunter, Peter; Smith, Nick

    2014-05-01

    The EPSRC-funded Adaptation and Resilience of Coastal Energy Supply (ARCoES) project encompasses four research strands, involving 14 institutions and six PhD studentships. ARCoES aims to determine the threats posed to future energy generation and the distribution network by flooding and erosion, changing patterns of coastal sedimentation, water temperature and the distribution of plants and animals in the coastal zone. Whilst this research has direct benefits for the operation of coastal power stations, ARCoES aims to have a wider stakeholder engagement through assessing how the resilience of coastal communities may be altered by five hundred years of coastal evolution. Coastal evolution will have substantial implications for the energy sector of the North West of England as former waste storage sites are eroded and remobilised within the intertidal environment. The current intertidal environmental stores of radioactivity will also experience reworking as ocean chemistry changes and saltmarsh chronologies are reworked in response to rising sea levels. There is a duel requirement to understand mass sediment movement along the North West coast of England as understanding the sediment transport dynamics is key to modelling long term coastal change and understanding how the environmental store of radioactivity will be reworked. The University of Stirling is researching the long-term environmental and health implications of remobilisation and transport of contaminated sediments around the UK coastline. Using a synergy of hyperspectral and topographic information the mobilisation of sediment bound contaminants within the coastal environment will be investigated. Potential hazards posed by contaminants are determined by a set of environmental impact test criteria which evaluate the bio-accessibility and ionising dose of contaminants. These test criteria will be used to comment on the likely environmental impact of modelled sediment transport and anticipated changes in

  19. The impact of long-term changes in water table height on carbon cycling in sub-boreal peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pypker, T. G.; Moore, P. A.; Waddington, J. M.; Hribljan, J. A.; Ballantyne, D.; Chimner, R. A.

    2011-12-01

    Peatlands are a critical component in the global carbon (C) cycle because they have been slowly sequestering atmospheric greenhouse gases as peat since the last glaciation. Today, soil C stocks in peatlands are estimated to represent 224 to 455 Pg, equal to 12-30% of the global soil C pool. At present, peatlands are estimated to sequester 76 Tg C yr-1. The flux of C to and from peatlands is likely to respond to climate change, thereby influencing atmospheric C concentrations. Peatland C budgets are tightly linked to their hydrology, hence, it is critical we understand how changes in hydrology will affect the C budgets of peatlands. The main objective of the project was to determine how long-term changes in water table height affect CO2 and CH4 fluxes from three adjacent peatlands. This study took place in the Seney National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR) in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. SNWR is home to the largest wetland drainage project in Michigan. In 1912, ditches and dikes were created in an effort to convert approximately 20,000 ha of peatland to agriculture. The ditches and dikes were unsuccessful in creating agricultural land, but they are still in place. The manipulation of water table heights provides an opportunity to research how long-term peat drying or wetting alters C cycling in peatlands. From May to November in 2009, 2010 and 2011, we monitored CO2 fluxes using eddy covariance and chamber techniques in three adjacent peatlands with lowered, relatively unaltered ("control") and raised water table heights. In 2011, we installed CH4 analyzers to continuously monitor CH4 fluxes at the sites with high and relatively unaltered water table heights. The results are compared across sites to determine how changes in water table height might affect C fluxes sub-boreal peatlands.

  20. Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucas, Paul L.; Shukla, P.R.; Chen, Wenying; Ruijven, Bas J. van; Dhar, Subash; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 °C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies. - highlights: • We analyze long-term impacts of the international pledges for China and India. • We compare a least-cost pathway with a pathway starting from the Copenhagen pledges. • Postponing mitigation action implies much higher cumulative mitigation costs. • Postponing increases fossil fuel dependence and requires deeper long-term reductions. • Countries differ mainly due to different periods of rapid economic change

  1. Boundary Organizations: Creating a Unique Model for Sustained Dialog Among Scientists and Decison Makers About Long-term Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, B.; Carter, H.; Knight, E.; Meyer, R.

    2015-12-01

    California Ocean Science Trust is a boundary organization formed by the state of California. We work across traditional boundaries between government, science, and communities to build trust and understanding in ocean and coastal science. We work closely with decision makers to understand their priority needs and identify opportunities for science to have a meaningful impact, and we engage scientists and other experts to compile and translate information into innovative products that help to meet those needs. This often sparks new collaborations that live well beyond the products themselves. Through this unique model, we are deepening relationships and facilitating an ongoing dialogue between scientists, decision-makers, and communities. The West Coast of the United States is already experiencing climate-driven changes in marine conditions at both large and small spatial scales. Decision makers are increasingly concerned with the potential threats that these changes pose to coastal communities, industries, ecosystems, and species. Detecting and understanding these multi-stressor changes requires consideration across scientific disciplines and management jurisdictions. Research and monitoring programs must reflect this new reality: they should be designed to connect with the decision makers who may use their results. In this presentation, I will share how we are drawing from the West Coast Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Science Panel - an interdisciplinary team of scientists convened by Ocean Science Trust from California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia - to develop actionable guidance for long-term monitoring for long-term change. Building on our experiences working with the Panel, I will discuss the unique model that boundary organizations provide for sustained dialog across traditionally siloed disciplines and management regimes, and share best practices and lessons learned in working across those boundaries.

  2. Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting for the 3D Point Position Changing by Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni-Georgia Alevizakou

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting is one of the most growing areas in most sciences attracting the attention of many researchers for more extensive study. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an integrated forecasting methodology based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN, which is a modern and attractive intelligent technique. The final result is to provide short-term and long-term forecasts for point position changing, i.e., the displacement or deformation of the surface they belong to. The motivation was the combination of two thoughts, the insertion of the forecasting concept in Geodesy as in the most scientific disciplines (e.g., Economics, Medicine and the desire to know the future position of any point on a construction or on the earth’s crustal. This methodology was designed to be accurate, stable and general for different kind of geodetic data. The basic procedure consists of the definition of the forecasting problem, the preliminary data analysis (data pre-processing, the definition of the most suitable ANN, its evaluation using the proper criteria and finally the production of forecasts. The methodology gives particular emphasis on the stages of the pre-processing and the evaluation. Additionally, the importance of the prediction intervals (PI is emphasized. A case study, which includes geodetic data from the year 2003 to the year 2016—namely X, Y, Z coordinates—is implemented. The data were acquired by 1000 permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS stations. During this case study, 2016 ANNs—with different hyper-parameters—are trained and tested for short-term forecasting and 2016 for long-term forecasting, for each of the GNSS stations. In addition, other conventional statistical forecasting methods are used for the same purpose using the same data set. Finally the most appropriate Non-linear Autoregressive Recurrent network (NAR or Non-linear Autoregressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX for the forecasting of 3D point

  3. Glycyrrhizin and long-term histopathologic changes in a murine model of asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hocaoglu, Arzu Babayigit; Karaman, Ozkan; Erge, Duygu Olmez; Erbil, Guven; Yilmaz, Osman; Bagriyanik, Alper; Uzuner, Nevin

    2011-12-01

    muscle layers (P < 0.001 for all) in the asthma group compared with in the control group. The number of goblet (P < 0.001) and mast (P < 0.02) cells and the thickness of basement membrane (P < 0.001), subepithelial smooth muscle layers (P ≤ 0.001), and epithelium of the lung (P < 0.001) were found to be significantly lower in the glycyrrhizin group compared with in the placebo group. When the glycyrrhizin and dexamethasone groups were compared, there was no statistically significant difference between the 2 groups in the histopathologic parameters, including thickness of basement membrane (P = 0.514), subepithelial smooth muscle (P = 0.054), and epithelium (P = 1.0) and number of mast (P = 0.075) and goblet (P = 0.988) cells. The results of this study suggest that the group receiving glycyrrhizin had amelioration of all established chronic histopathologic changes of lung in the mouse model of asthma. Further studies are needed to evaluate the efficacy of glycyrrhizin in the management of asthma.

  4. Long-term changes in blood pressure following orlistat and sibutramine treatment: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, K; Sundström, J; Neovius, K; Rössner, S; Neovius, M

    2010-11-01

    Previous meta-analyses investigating blood pressure effects of anti-obesity drugs have included studies using non-licensed doses, but not data from head-to-head studies. Furthermore, although diabetes is an important comorbidity in obesity, variation in blood pressure effects across diabetes status has not been investigated. The objective of this study was to estimate the effects on systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of orlistat and sibutramine. Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane controlled trials register and reference lists of identified articles from 1990 to February 2009 were searched. All placebo-controlled randomized controlled trials of 12-month duration or randomized head-to-head studies of any duration on adults using standard doses were included. Studies/study arms were excluded if they only evaluated weight maintenance after weight loss. Randomized controlled trials were identified, subjected to inclusion and exclusion criteria, and reviewed. Random effects models were used for assessment of weighted mean differences. Eighteen placebo-controlled (12 orlistat, 5540 patients; 6 sibutramine, 1495 patients) and four head-to-head trials (348 patients) met the inclusion criteria. Three orlistat and three sibutramine studies examined overweight subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2DM), as did two head-to-head trials. Mean baseline SBP ranged from 119 to 153 mmHg, and mean DBP from 69 to 98 mmHg. Overall, the placebo-controlled SBP change was -1.9 (95% CI; -2.7, -1.1) mmHg for orlistat, and 0.5 (-1.1, 2.1) mmHg for sibutramine. The corresponding values for DBP were -1.5 (-2.2, -0.8) and 1.7 (0.7, 2.6). Compared with patients without diabetes, diabetic patients treated with orlistat experienced smaller and non-significant reductions of SBP (-0.9; -2.6, 0.7 vs. -2.2; -3.0, -1.3) and DBP (-1.0; -2.4, 0.3 vs. -1.6; -2.4, -0.8). For sibutramine, higher on-treatment elevations in SBP (1.6; -1.3, 4.5 vs. 0.1; -1.8, 2.0) and DBP (2.4; 0.6, 4.1 vs. 1.4; 0.3, 2

  5. Continuous Microfluidics (Ecology-on-a-Chip) Experiments for Long Term Observation of Bacteria at Liquid-Liquid Interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Michael; White, Andrew; Jalali, Maryam; Sheng, Jian

    2017-11-01

    A microfluidic bioassay incorporating a peristaltic pump and chemostat capable of continuously culturing a bacterial suspension through a microchannel for an extended period of time relevant to ecological processes is presented. A single crude oil droplet is dispensed on-chip and subsequently pinned to the top and bottom surfaces of the microchannel to establish a vertical curved oil-water interface to observe bacteria without boundary interference. The accumulation of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), microbial film formation, and aggregation is provided by DIC microscopy with an EMCCD camera at an interval of 30 sec. Cell-interface interactions such as cell translational and angular motilities as well as encountering, attachment, detachment to the interface are obtained by a high speed camera at 1000 fps with a sampling interval of 10 min. Experiments on Pseudomonas sp. (P62) and isolated EPS suspensions from Sagitulla Stelleta and Roseobacter show rapid formation of bacterial aggregates including EPS streamers stretching tens of drop diameters long. These results provide crucial insights into environmentally relevant processes such as the initiation of marine oil snow, an alternative mode of biodegradation to conventional bioconsumption. Funded by GoMRI, NSF, ARO.

  6. Long-term changes in neurocognition and behavior following treatment of sleep disordered breathing in school-aged children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggs, Sarah N; Vlahandonis, Anna; Anderson, Vicki; Bourke, Robert; Nixon, Gillian M; Davey, Margot J; Horne, Rosemary S C

    2014-01-01

    Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in children is associated with detrimental neurocognitive and behavioral consequences. The long term impact of treatment on these outcomes is unknown. This study examined the long-term effect of treatment of SDB on neurocognition, academic ability, and behavior in a cohort of school-aged children. Four-year longitudinal study. Children originally diagnosed with SDB and healthy non-snoring controls underwent repeat polysomnography and age-standardized neurocognitive and behavioral assessment 4y following initial testing. Melbourne Children's Sleep Centre, Melbourne, Australia. Children 12-16 years of age, originally assessed at 7-12 years, were categorized into Treated (N = 12), Untreated (N = 26), and Control (N = 18) groups. Adenotonsillectomy, Tonsillectomy, Nasal Steroids. Decision to treat was independent of this study. Changes in sleep and respiratory parameters over time were assessed. A decrease in obstructive apnea hypopnea index (OAHI) from Time 1 to Time 2 was seen in 63% and 100% of the Untreated and Treated groups, respectively. The predictive relationship between change in OAHI and standardized neurocognitive, academic, and behavioral scores over time was examined. Improvements in OAHI were predictive of improvements in Performance IQ, but not Verbal IQ or academic measures. Initial group differences in behavioral assessment on the Child Behavior Checklist did not change over time. Children with SDB at baseline continued to exhibit significantly poorer behavior than Controls at follow-up, irrespective of treatment. After four years, improvements in SDB are concomitant with improvements in some areas of neurocognition, but not academic ability or behavior in school-aged children.

  7. Long-term trends of changes in pine and oak foliar nitrogen metabolism in response to chronic nitrogen amendments at Harvard Forest, MA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minocha, Rakesh; Turlapati, Swathi A; Long, Stephanie; McDowell, William H; Minocha, Subhash C

    2015-08-01

    We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements were analyzed for control, low N (LN, 50 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1)) and high N (HN, 150 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1)) treatments. In the pine stands, partitioning of excess N into foliar PAs and AAs increased with both N treatments until 2002. By 2005, several of these effects on N metabolites disappeared for HN, and by 2008 they were mostly observed for LN plot. A significant decline in foliar Ca and P was observed mostly with HN for a few years until 2005. However, sapwood data actually showed an increase in Ca, Mg and Mn and no change in PAs in the HN plot for 2008, while AAs data revealed trends that were generally similar to foliage for 2008. Concomitant with these changes, mortality data revealed a large number of dead trees in HN pine plots by 2002; the mortality rate started to decline by 2005. Oak trees in the hardwood plot did not exhibit any major changes in PAs, AAs, nutrients and mortality rate with LN treatment, indicating that oak trees were able to tolerate the yearly doses of 50 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1). However, HN trees suffered from physiological and nutritional stress along with increased mortality in 2008. In this case also, foliar data were supported by the sapwood data. Overall, both low and high N applications resulted in greater physiological stress to the pine trees than the oaks. In general, the time course of changes in metabolic data are in agreement with the published reports on changes in soil chemistry and microbial community structure, rates of soil carbon sequestration and production of woody biomass for this chronic N study. This correspondence of selected metabolites

  8. Long-term ecology resolves the timing, region of origin and process of establishment for a disputed alien tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilmshurst, Janet M; McGlone, Matt S; Turney, Chris S M

    2015-08-26

    ecological integrity. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

  9. Frequency of changing enteral alimentation bags and tubing, and adverse clinical outcomes in patients in a long term care facility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, S; McIntyre, M; Chicoine, J; Gerard, B; Laughren, R; Cowley, G; Morrison, J; Aoki, F Y; Nicolle, L E

    1993-01-01

    Enteral alimentation, given via nasogastric or gastrostomy tubes, is a well established practice to provide nutrition for patients with significant neurological injury. The frequency with which enteral feeding bags and tubes require change and potential adverse effects associated with bacterial contamination of tube feeds remain controversial. The authors studied different times between enteral feeding bag and tube changes, and the effect on adverse clinical outcomes in residents of a long term care facility. In the first study, residents were randomized to 24 h (n = 2), 48 h (n = 3) or 72 h (n = 6) tube feeding and bag changes with clinical status monitored in a standardized fashion for six months. In the second study, patients were randomized to 24 h (n = 6) or 72 h (n = 6) changes. Patient-days of follow-up were 382, 574 and 1000 for the three arms of the first study period and 556 and 496 for the two arms of the second study. No differences in potential clinical adverse events--including fever, gastrointestinal symptoms or pneumonia--were observed with different durations of tubing change. This study suggests it is appropriate to change alimentation tube and feeding bags every 72 h (rather than every 24 h). The less frequent changes will decrease supply costs and free nursing time for other activities.

  10. Terminal changes in hereditary sensory and autonomic neuropathy: a long-term follow-up of a sporadic case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang-Soo; Lee, Sung-Hyun; Han, Seol-Heui

    2003-07-01

    We describe terminal changes in a long-term follow-up of a 51-year-old man with sporadic hereditary sensory and autonomic neuropathy (HSAN). From the age of 15 years onwards, he suffered from multiple painless ulcers of his feet and fingers, necessitating amputation. Neurological studies revealed almost complete sensory loss affecting all modalities in the upper and lower limbs, minimal involvement of motor fibers, and areflexia. A neurophysiological abnormality involved an absence of sensory action potentials with relatively normal motor nerve conduction velocities. Biopsy of the sural nerve showed almost total loss of myelinated fibers with a mild decrease in unmyelinated fibers. Despite the late onset of the disease, the progressive course, and the lancinating pain, the terminal features of this patient, which involved a selective loss of myelinated fibers and widespread sensory loss, seem to be symptomatic of HSAN II, the progressive form of autosomal recessive sensory neuropathy, and emphasize the clinical heterogeneity of HSAN.

  11. The predominant mechanism of intercellular calcium wave propagation changes during long-term culture of human osteoblast-like cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Zanne; Hiken, Jeffrey F; Steinberg, Thomas H

    2006-01-01

    cells still responded to addition of ATP, but P2Y desensitization did not inhibit ICW propagation. Our data indicate that the relative role of P2Y-mediated and gap junction-mediated ICW changes during osteoblast differentiation in vitro. In less differentiated cells, P2Y-mediated ICW predominate......Intercellular calcium waves (ICW) are calcium transients that spread from cell to cell in response to different stimuli. We previously demonstrated that human osteoblast-like cells in culture propagate ICW in response to mechanical stimulation by two mechanisms. One mechanism involves autocrine...... activation of P2Y receptors, and the other requires gap junctional communication. In the current work we ask whether long-term culture of osteoblast-like cells affects the propagation of ICW by these two mechanisms. Human osteoblast-like cells were isolated from bone marrow. Mechanically induced ICW were...

  12. Long-term changes of euphausiids in shelf and oceanic habitats southwest, south and southeast of Iceland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silva, Teresa; Gislason, A.; Licandro, P.

    2014-01-01

    by the Marine Research Institute (MRI) on a transect south of Iceland during spring (1990–2011) and the other by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey (1958–2007) in the oceanic waters south of Iceland covering all months. Due to limitations of the sampling gears used, the results mainly reflect...... of euphausiid abundance in the west, whereas in the east temperature appears to be most important. In addition, the onset of the spring bloom also affected the long-term changes in euphausiid abundance. For the oceanic areas, it is concluded that a weakened temporal synchrony between the development of young...... in numbers of larvae during spring 1990–2011 for the shelf south of Iceland. Single variable-based GAMs indicated that phytoplankton biomass was generally the main environmental factor regulating euphausiid abundance. Multiple variable-based GAMs showed that phytoplankton biomass was the strongest predictor...

  13. Long-term impacts of selective logging on two Amazonian tree species with contrasting ecological and reproductive characteristics: inferences from Eco-gene model simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinson, C C; Kanashiro, M; Sebbenn, A M; Williams, T C R; Harris, S A; Boshier, D H

    2015-08-01

    The impact of logging and subsequent recovery after logging is predicted to vary depending on specific life history traits of the logged species. The Eco-gene simulation model was used to evaluate the long-term impacts of selective logging over 300 years on two contrasting Brazilian Amazon tree species, Dipteryx odorata and Jacaranda copaia. D. odorata (Leguminosae), a slow growing climax tree, occurs at very low densities, whereas J. copaia (Bignoniaceae) is a fast growing pioneer tree that occurs at high densities. Microsatellite multilocus genotypes of the pre-logging populations were used as data inputs for the Eco-gene model and post-logging genetic data was used to verify the output from the simulations. Overall, under current Brazilian forest management regulations, there were neither short nor long-term impacts on J. copaia. By contrast, D. odorata cannot be sustainably logged under current regulations, a sustainable scenario was achieved by increasing the minimum cutting diameter at breast height from 50 to 100 cm over 30-year logging cycles. Genetic parameters were only slightly affected by selective logging, with reductions in the numbers of alleles and single genotypes. In the short term, the loss of alleles seen in J. copaia simulations was the same as in real data, whereas fewer alleles were lost in D. odorata simulations than in the field. The different impacts and periods of recovery for each species support the idea that ecological and genetic information are essential at species, ecological guild or reproductive group levels to help derive sustainable management scenarios for tropical forests.

  14. ADAPTIVE CHANGES OF MYOSIN ISOFORMS IN RESPONSE TO LONG-TERM STRENGTH AND POWER TRAINING IN MIDDLE-AGED MEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raivo Puhke

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to examine the adaptive changes in myosin heavy chain (MHC and light chain (MLC isoforms in human vastus lateralis muscle caused by long-term strength and power training (54 weeks, approximately 3 times a week in untrained middle- aged men (16 in the training and 6 in the control group. Muscular MHC and MLC isoforms were determined by means of SDS-PAGE gel electrophoresis. During the training period, maximal anaerobic cycling power increased by 64 W (p < 0.001 and the maximal jumping height by 1.5 cm (p < 0. 05 in the training group, but no significant changes were found in the control group. However, the group by time effect was not significant. In the training group, the increase of the maximal jumping height correlated with the number of strength and power training sessions (r = 0.56; p < 0.05. The change of the proportion of MHC IIa isoform from 52.6 ± 12.2% to 59.4 ± 11.6% did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.070 for group by time; within training group p = 0.061 and neither did the change of the proportion of MHC IIx isoform from 18.1 ± 11.4% to 11.1 ± 9.1% (p = 0.104 for group by time; within training group p=0.032. The degree of change of MHC IIx isoform correlated with the amount of earlier recreational sports activity (r = 0.61; p < 0.05. In the training group, the changes of MLC1s isoform correlated negatively with the changes of MLC1f isoform (r = -0. 79; p < 0.05 as well as with the changes in maximal anaerobic cycling power (r = -0.81; p < 0.05, and positively with those of MHC I isoform (r = 0.81; p < 0.05. In conclusion, the long- term strength and power training ~3 times a week seemed to have only slight effects on fast MHC isoforms in the vastus lateralis muscle of untrained middle-aged men; the proportion of MHC IIa tended to increase and that of MHC IIx tended to decrease. No changes in MLC isoform profile could be shown

  15. Methods for definition of reference conditions for a repository site taking long-term environmental change into account

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikonen, A.T.K. [Environmental Research and Assessment EnviroCase, Ltd. (Finland)

    2014-07-01

    In a few countries, programmes for disposal of spent nuclear fuel have proceeded into a site-specific phase, and the number of low- and intermediate-level nuclear waste repositories requiring updated state-of-the-art long-term safety assessments is considerable. In this contribution, the approach employed in the Finnish spent fuel disposal programme is analysed and used as an example for a more general methodology for defining reference surface conditions for a site, e.g. to guide selection of representative input data to safety assessments, using spatio-temporal analogues so that long-term environmental changes are taken into account. The contribution incorporates also elements from discussions in the IAEA EMRAS II and MODARIA working groups on addressing the environmental change in the assessments. The legacy of the earlier BIOMASS project is also recognised. Broadly, the methods to be presented include identification of similarity factors (e.g. geological, biological and climate regimes) upon which a reference area can be delineated. Within the reference area, characteristic lines of development and biotopes are identified and described, and these are then used to guide further research and application of literature data to iteratively accumulate adequate understanding of the site conditions and relevant processes at the present and in the future (by projecting further the past and present development lines and biotopes). In this iterative approach, also the intensity of research efforts can be adjusted with the stage of the repository programme, as will be discussed in the complete contribution. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  16. Local and systemic changes associated with long-term, percutaneous, static implantation with titanium alloys in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frydman, Galit F.; Marini, Robert P.; Bakthavatchalu, Vasudevan; Biddle, Kathleen; Muthupalani, Sureshkumar; Vanderburg, Charles R.; Lai, Barry; Bendapudi, Pavan K.; Tompkins, Ronald G.; Fox, James G.

    2017-04-01

    Metal alloys are frequently used as implant materials in veterinary medicine. Recent studies suggest that many types of metal alloys may induce both local and systemic inflammatory responses. In this study, 37 rhesus macaques with long-term skull-anchored percutaneous titanium alloy implants (0-14 years duration) were evaluated for changes in their hematology, coagulation and serum chemistry profiles. Negative controls (n=28) did not have implants. All of the implanted animals were on IACUC-approved protocols and were not implanted for the purpose of this study. Animals with implants had significantly higher plasma D-dimer and lower antithrombin III concentrations compared with nonimplanted animals (p-values < 0.05). Additionally, animals with implants had significantly higher globulin, and lower albumin and calcium concentrations compared with nonimplanted animals (p-values < 0.05). Many of these changes were positively correlated with duration of implantation as well as the number of implants. Chronic bacterial infection was observed on the skin around many of the implant sites, and within deeper tissues. Representative histopathology around the implant site of two implanted animals revealed chronic suppurative to pyogranulomatous inflammation extending from the skin to the dura mater. X-ray fluorescence microscopy of tissue biopsies from the implant site of the same two animals revealed significant increases in free metal ions within the tissue, including titanium and iron. Free metal ions persisted in the tissues up to 6 months postexplant. These results suggest that long-term skull-anchored percutaneous titanium alloy implants results in localized inflammation, chronic infection, and leaching of metal ions into local tissues.

  17. Changes in physical health among participants in a multidisciplinary health programme for long-term unemployed persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schutgens, Christine A E; Schuring, Merel; Voorham, Toon A J; Burdorf, Alex

    2009-06-19

    The relationship between poor health and unemployment is well established. Health promotion among unemployed persons may improve their health. The aims of this study were to investigate characteristics of non-participants and drop-outs in a multidisciplinary health promotion programme for long-term unemployed persons with health complaints, to evaluate changes in physical health among participants, and to investigate determinants of improvement in physical health. A longitudinal, non-controlled design was used. The programme consisted of two weekly exercise sessions and one weekly cognitive session during 12 weeks. The main outcome measures were body mass index, blood pressure, cardiorespiratory fitness, abdominal muscle strength, and low back and hamstring flexibility. Potential determinants of change in physical health were demographic variables, psychological variables (self-esteem, mastery, and kinesiophobia), and self-perceived health. The initial response was 73% and 252 persons had complete data collection at baseline. In total, 36 subjects were lost during follow-up. Participants were predominantly low educated, long-term unemployed, and in poor health. Participation in the programme was not influenced by demographic and psychological factors or by self-reported health. Drop-outs were younger and had a lower body mass index at baseline than subjects who completed the programme. At post-test, participants' cardiorespiratory fitness, abdominal muscle strength, and flexibility had increased by 6.8%-51.0%, whereas diastolic and systolic blood pressures had decreased by 2.2%-2.5%. The effect sizes ranges from 0.17-0.68. Participants with the poorest physical health benefited most from the programme and gender differences in improvement were observed. Physical health of unemployed persons with health complaints improved after participation in this health promotion programme, but not sufficiently, considering their poor physical health at baseline.

  18. Long-term genetic monitoring of a riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae]: Direct anthropogenic impact versus climate change effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, Rebecca; Hadrys, Heike

    2017-01-01

    Modern conservationists call for long term genetic monitoring datasets to evaluate and understand the impact of human activities on natural ecosystems and species on a global but also local scale. However, long-term monitoring datasets are still rare but in high demand to correctly identify, evaluate and respond to environmental changes. In the presented study, a population of the riverine dragonfly, Orthetrum coerulescens (Odonata: Libellulidae), was monitored over a time period from 1989 to 2013. Study site was an artificial irrigation ditch in one of the last European stone steppes and "nature heritage", the Crau in Southern France. This artificial riverine habitat has an unusual high diversity of odonate species, prominent indicators for evaluating freshwater habitats. A clearing of the canal and destruction of the bank vegetation in 1996 was assumed to have great negative impact on the odonate larval and adult populations. Two mitochondrial markers (CO1 & ND1) and a panel of nuclear microsatellite loci were used to assess the genetic diversity. Over time they revealed a dramatic decline in diversity parameters between the years 2004 and 2007, however not between 1996 and 1997. From 2007 onwards the population shows a stabilizing trend but has not reached the amount of genetic variation found at the beginning of this survey. This decline cannot be referred to the clearing of the canal or any other direct anthropogenic impact. Instead, it is most likely that the populations' decay was due to by extreme weather conditions during the specific years. A severe drought was recorded for the summer months of these years, leading to reduced water levels in the canal causing also other water parameters to change, and therefore impacting temperature sensitive riverine habitat specialists like the O. coerulescens in a significant way. The data provide important insights into population genetic dynamics and metrics not always congruent with traditional monitoring data (e

  19. Changes in physical health among participants in a multidisciplinary health programme for long-term unemployed persons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schuring Merel

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The relationship between poor health and unemployment is well established. Health promotion among unemployed persons may improve their health. The aims of this study were to investigate characteristics of non-participants and drop-outs in a multidisciplinary health promotion programme for long-term unemployed persons with health complaints, to evaluate changes in physical health among participants, and to investigate determinants of improvement in physical health. Methods A longitudinal, non-controlled design was used. The programme consisted of two weekly exercise sessions and one weekly cognitive session during 12 weeks. The main outcome measures were body mass index, blood pressure, cardiorespiratory fitness, abdominal muscle strength, and low back and hamstring flexibility. Potential determinants of change in physical health were demographic variables, psychological variables (self-esteem, mastery, and kinesiophobia, and self-perceived health. Results The initial response was 73% and 252 persons had complete data collection at baseline. In total, 36 subjects were lost during follow-up. Participants were predominantly low educated, long-term unemployed, and in poor health. Participation in the programme was not influenced by demographic and psychological factors or by self-reported health. Drop-outs were younger and had a lower body mass index at baseline than subjects who completed the programme. At post-test, participants' cardiorespiratory fitness, abdominal muscle strength, and flexibility had increased by 6.8%–51.0%, whereas diastolic and systolic blood pressures had decreased by 2.2%–2.5%. The effect sizes ranges from 0.17–0.68. Conclusion Participants with the poorest physical health benefited most from the programme and gender differences in improvement were observed. Physical health of unemployed persons with health complaints improved after participation in this health promotion programme, but not

  20. Minor long-term changes in weight have beneficial effects on insulin sensitivity and beta-cell function in obese subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenfalck, A M; Hendel, Helle Westergren; Rasmussen, M H

    2002-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term effect of changes in body composition induced by weight loss on insulin sensitivity (SI), non-insulin mediated glucose disposal, glucose effectiveness (SG)and beta-cell function.......To evaluate the long-term effect of changes in body composition induced by weight loss on insulin sensitivity (SI), non-insulin mediated glucose disposal, glucose effectiveness (SG)and beta-cell function....

  1. The Role of Indian Ocean SST Anomalies in Modulating Regional Rainfall Variability and Long-term Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, C. C.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

    2008-12-01

    In a series of atmospheric general circulation model simulations, the potential impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating low- to mid-latitude precipitation around the Indian Ocean rim countries is explored. The relative importance of various characteristic tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean SST poles, both individually and in combination, to regional precipitation changes is quantified. A mechanism for the rainfall modulation is proposed, by which the SST anomalies induce changes in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, resulting in a reorganization of the large-scale atmospheric circulation across the Indian Ocean basin. Across western and southern regions of Australia, rainfall anomalies are found to be due to modulations in the meridional thickness gradient, thermal wind, and baroclinicity, leading to changes in the moisture flux onto the continent. The pattern of large-scale circulation changes over the tropical Indian Ocean and adjacent land masses is consistent with an anomalous strengthening of the Walker cell, leading to variations in precipitation of opposite sign across western and eastern regions of the basin. Links between long-term changes in Indian Ocean surface properties and regional precipitation changes in Indian Ocean rim countries are also discussed in a broader context with implications for water management and seasonal forecasting.

  2. Does early change predict long-term (6 months) improvements in subjects who receive manual therapy for low back pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Chad; Petersen, Shannon; Donaldson, Megan; Wilhelm, Mark; Learman, Ken

    2017-09-01

    Early change is commonly assessed for manual therapy interventions and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, current studies have only explored the relationship of between or within-session changes and short-/medium-term outcomes. The goal of this study was to determine whether pain changes after two weeks of pragmatic manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who demonstrate continued improvements at 6-month follow-up. This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using a 33% and a 50% pain change to predict improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% pain reduction by 2 weeks had 6.98 (95% CI = 1.29, 37.53) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 (95% CI = 1.31, 17.17) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at 6 months). Subjects who reported a ≥50% pain reduction at 2 weeks had 5.98 (95% CI = 1.56, 22.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 (95% CI = 1.23, 12.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). Future studies may investigate whether a change in plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvement predictive of a good long-term outcome.

  3. Short and Long Term Behavioral and Pathological Changes in a Novel Rodent Model of Repetitive Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly M McAteer

    Full Text Available A history of concussion, particularly repeated injury, has been linked to an increased risk for the development of neurodegenerative diseases, particularly chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE. CTE is characterized by abnormal accumulation of hyperphosphorylated tau and deficits in learning and memory. As yet the mechanisms associated with the development of CTE are unknown. Accordingly, the aim of the current study was to develop and characterize a novel model of repetitive mTBI that accurately reproduces the key short and long-term functional and histopathological features seen clinically. Forty male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned to receive 0, 1 or 3x mTBI spaced five days apart using a modified version of the Marmarou impact-acceleration diffuse-TBI model to deliver 110G of linear force. Functional outcomes were assessed six and twelve weeks post-injury, with histopathology assessed twenty-four hours and twelve weeks post-injury. Repetitive mTBI resulted in mild spatial and recognition memory deficits as reflected by increased escape latency on the Barnes maze and decreased time spent in the novel arm of the Y maze. There was a trend towards increased anxiety-like behavior, with decreased time spent in the inner portion of the open field. At 24 hours and 12 weeks post injury, repetitive mTBI animals showed increased tau phosphorylation and microglial activation within the cortex. Increases in APP immunoreactivity were observed in repetitive mTBI animals at 12 weeks indicating long-term changes in axonal integrity. This novel model of repetitive mTBI with its persistent cognitive deficits, neuroinflammation, axonal injury and tau hyperphosphorylation, thus represents a clinically relevant experimental approach to further explore the underlying pathogenesis of CTE.

  4. Structural changes in socio-affective networks: Multi-modal MRI findings in long-term meditation practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engen, Haakon G; Bernhardt, Boris C; Skottnik, Leon; Ricard, Matthieu; Singer, Tania

    2017-08-31

    Our goal was to assess the effects of long-term mental training in socio-affective skills on structural brain networks. We studied a group of long-term meditation practitioners (LTMs) who have focused on cultivating socio-affective skills using loving-kindness and compassion meditation for an average of 40k h, comparing these to meditation-naïve controls. To maximize homogeneity of prior practice, LTMs were included only if they had undergone extensive full-time meditation retreats in the same center. MRI-based cortical thickness analysis revealed increased thickness in the LTM cohort relative to meditation-native controls in fronto-insular cortices. To identify functional networks relevant for the generation of socio-affective states, structural imaging analysis were complemented by fMRI analysis in LTMs, showing amplitude increases during a loving-kindness meditation session relative to non-meditative rest in multiple prefrontal and insular regions bilaterally. Importantly, functional findings partially overlapped with regions of cortical thickness increases in the left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and anterior insula, suggesting that these regions may play a central role in the generation of emotional states relevant for the meditative practice. Our multi-modal MRI approach revealed structural changes in LTMs who have cultivated loving-kindness and compassion for a significant period of their life in functional networks activated by these practices. These preliminary cross-sectional findings motivate future longitudinal work studying brain plasticity following the regular practice of skills aiming at enhancing human altruism and prosocial motivation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Changes in the female arcuate nucleus morphology and neurochemistry after chronic ethanol consumption and long-term withdrawal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebouças, Elce C C; Leal, Sandra; Silva, Susana M; Sá, Susana I

    2016-11-01

    Ethanol is a macronutrient whose intake is a form of ingestive behavior, sharing physiological mechanisms with food intake. Chronic ethanol consumption is detrimental to the brain, inducing gender-dependent neuronal damage. The hypothalamic arcuate nucleus (ARN) is a modulator of food intake that expresses feeding-regulatory neuropeptides, such as alpha melanocyte-stimulating hormone (α-MSH) and neuropeptide Y (NPY). Despite its involvement in pathways associated with eating disorders and ethanol abuse, the impact of ethanol consumption and withdrawal in the ARN structure and neurochemistry in females is unknown. We used female rat models of 20% ethanol consumption for six months and of subsequent ethanol withdrawal for two months. Food intake and body weights were measured. ARN morphology was stereologically analyzed to estimate its volume, total number of neurons and total number of neurons expressing NPY, α-MSH, tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) and estrogen receptor alpha (ERα). Ethanol decreased energy intake and body weights. However, it did not change the ARN morphology or the expression of NPY, α-MSH and TH, while increasing ERα expression. Withdrawal induced a significant volume and neuron loss that was accompanied by an increase in NPY expression without affecting α-MSH and TH expression. These findings indicate that the female ARN is more vulnerable to withdrawal than to excess alcohol. The data also support the hypothesis that the same pathways that regulate the expression of NPY and α-MSH in long-term ethanol intake may regulate food intake. The present model of long-term ethanol intake and withdrawal induces new physiological conditions with adaptive responses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Long-term changes and spatio-temporal variability of the growing season temperature in Europe during the last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiot, Joel; Corona, Christophe

    2010-05-01

    A gridded reconstruction of April to September temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen and ice cores. The majority of the proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variations, they were completed by number of low resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data. An original spectral analogue method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and especially to preserve the long-term variations and the variability of the temperature series. It is the condition is to make pertinent the comparison of the recent climate changes to a broader context of 1400 years. The reconstruction of the April-September temperature was validated with a Jack-knife technique, and it was also compared with other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings. We found that (1) our results are sound back to A.D. 750; (2) conditions during the last decade have exceeded all those known during the last millennium; (3) before the 20th century, cold periods can partly be explained by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity and that Medieval Warm Period (MWP) is consistent with a high solar activity; (4) during the 20th century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise; (5) based on an analysis of the distribution of extreme temperatures, the maximum event of the Medieval Period (1.1°C higher than the 1960-1990 reference period) had a return period of more than 1000 years, but this recently fell to less than 26 years; (6) all decades before AD 1350 were warm on average but relatively heterogeneous, while the last decade was homogeneously warmer. These results support the fact that we are facing an unprecedented changing climate in Europe unlike any known

  7. Long-term maxillomandibular changes after maxillary distraction osteogenesis in growing children with cleft lip with or without palate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Aya; Baba, Yoshiyuki; Ogawa, Takuya; Suzuki, Shoichi; Moriyama, Keiji

    2013-03-01

    Objective : To evaluate the long-term maxillomandibular changes after maxillary distraction osteogenesis in growing children having cleft lip with or without cleft palate. Patients : Eight Japanese patients with cleft lip with or without cleft palate aged 9.3 to 13.1 years. Measures : The maxillary and mandibular positions before (T0), immediately after (T1), and 1, 3, and 5 years after distraction osteogenesis (T2, T3, and T4, respectively) measured on cephalograms superimposed at the sella turcica with the Frankfort horizontal plane as the horizontal reference. The anterior nasal spine (x, y), pogonion (x), and menton (y) were used for linear measurements, and sella turcica-nasion-point A, sella turcica-nasion-point B, and point A-nasion-point B angles were used for angular measurements. Results : The mean horizontal maxillary advancement (anterior nasal spine [x]) was 12.3 mm during T0 to T1, but -2.7, -1.1, and -0.1 mm of the posttreatment changes were observed during T1 to T2, T2 to T3, and T3 to T4, respectively. Anterior nasal spine (y) shifted 2.3 mm downward during T0 to T1, and further downward changes were observed during T1 to T2 and T2 to T3 (P < .05). Pogonion (x) did not show distinct changes due to individual variance, but menton (y) shifted downward from T1 to T4. Sella turcica-nasion-point A significantly decreased during T1 to T2 and T2 to T3 but not during T3-T4. Point A-nasion-point B significantly decreased only during T2 to T3, and sella turcica-nasion-point B did not show any distinct change. Conclusions : There was no further maxillary advancement after distraction osteogenesis in the growing children with cleft lip with or without cleft palate. Therefore, long-term observation and management of occlusion in case of the mandibular growth pattern are important.

  8. A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manfred A. Lange

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA, the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the next. Our approach was applied to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield and, hence, to isolate the effect of the observed climate change between 1961 and 2006 on three widely crops grown in three Mediterranean countries—namely wheat, corn and potato—using national-level crop yield observations’ time-series. Obtained results show that the proposed methodology provides us with a ground basis to improve substantially our understanding of crop yield response to climate change at a scale that is relevant to large-scale estimations of agricultural production and to food security analyses; and therefore to reduce uncertainties in estimations of potential climate change effects on agricultural production. Furthermore, a comparison of outputs of our methodology and FDA outputs yielded a difference in terms of maize production in Egypt, for example, that exceeds the production of some neighbouring countries.

  9. Long-Term Dietary Changes after Diagnosis of Rheumatoid Arthritis in Swedish Women: Data from a Population-Based Cohort

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    Cecilia Lourdudoss

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To investigate long-term dietary changes after rheumatoid arthritis (RA diagnosis in Swedish women, compared to women without RA. Methods. This study included 21,602 women from the Swedish Mammography Cohort (SMC, who completed dietary questionnaires in 1997 and 2009. Between 1997 and 2009, 191 women were diagnosed with RA. Dietary changes after RA diagnosis were analyzed based on intake of 82 food items. Statistical analysis included linear mixed models. Results. Women with RA, compared to women without RA, had significantly lower intake (mean servings per week of animal products such as black pudding, egg, kidney, and liver paste (2.94±2.73 versus 2.45±1.82, p=0.010 and dairy products (35.14±20.02 versus 28.42±16.10, p=0.040 in 1997 and of cereals and grains (31.01±15.54 versus 28.00±14.98, p=0.009 in 2009. However, multivariable adjusted changes in dietary intake from 1997 to 2009 did not show any significant difference in intake. Nevertheless, women without RA increased their intake of whole wheat bread, wheat/oat bran, and rice more than women with RA. Conclusion. Women who had been diagnosed with RA had similar dietary patterns over time as the general population; these women did not remarkably change their diet over time due to their disease. Dietary recommendations for RA patients are needed.

  10. Analysis of long-term geological and hydrogeological changes in the Swedish programme for final disposal of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, L.O.; Boulton, G.S.

    1996-01-01

    In assessing the safety of deep disposal of nuclear waste in crystalline rocks it is important establish whether recent or future changes in loading can lead to fracturing and block displacement which may change the hydrogeological setting of a repository. Furthermore, it is of vital importance to understand how future climate changes, especially future glaciations, will influence the groundwater flow around a deep repository. The Swedish programme comprises R and D activities which attempt to quantify probable impacts of earthquakes, glaciation and land uplift. The activities emphasize geodynamic processes in the Baltic Shield, post-glacial faulting and glacial impacts on hydrogeology and ground water chemistry. A time-dependent, thermo-mechanically coupled, three-dimensional model of the ice sheet behaviour in Scandinavia has been developed. The model is driven by changes in the elevation of the permanent snow line on its surface and by air temperature and predicts the behaviour of the ice sheet for an earth's surface of given form and mechanical properties. The ice sheet model reconstructs the ice sheet thickness, ice sheet temperature distribution, including basal temperature, basal meting pattern and velocity distribution. The model is coupled to a sub-glacial Dancian groundwater flow model which in turn provides boundary for evaluations of long-term hydrogeological evolution at specific sites. (authors). 22 refs., 3 figs

  11. Long-term changes in net radiation and its components above a pine forest and a grass surface in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessler, A.; Jaeger, L.

    1999-01-01

    Long-term measurements (1974–1993 and 1996, respectively) of the net radiation (Q), global radiation (G), reflected global radiation (R), long-wave atmospheric radiation (A) and thermal radiation (E) of a pine forest in Southern Germany (index p) and of a grass surface in Northern Germany (index g) are compared. The influence of changes in surface properties is discussed. There are, in the case of the pine stand, forest growth and forest management and in the case of the grass surface, the shifting of the site from a climatic garden to a horizontal roof. Both series of radiant fluxes are analyzed with respect to the influences of the weather (cloudiness, heat advection). To eliminate the different influence of the solar radiation of the two sites, it is necessary to normalize by means of the global radiation G, yielding the radiation efficiency Q/G, the albedo R/G=α and the normalized long-wave net radiation (A+E)/G. Furthermore, the long-term mean values and the long-term trend of yearly mean values are discussed and, moreover, a comparison is made of individual monthly values. Q p is twice as large as Q g . The reason for this is the higher values of G and A above the pine forest and half values of α p compared to α g . E p is only a little greater than E g . The time series of the radiation fluxes show the following trends: Q p declines continuously despite a slight increase of G p . This is mainly due to the long-wave radiation fluxes. The net radiation of the grass surface Q g shows noticeably lower values after the merging of the site. This phenomenon is also dominated by the long-wave radiation processes. Although the properties of both site surfaces alter, E p and E g remain relatively stable. A p and A g show a remarkable decrease however. The reason for this is to be found in a modification of the heat advection, showing a more pronounced impact on the more continentally exposed site (pine forest). Compared to α g , α p shows only a small

  12. Long-Term (1969-2013 Changes of Water Parameters in Neka and Tajan Rivers, Mazandaran, Iran

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    Jaber Aazami

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Iran is located in the global arid zone. With an average rainfall of less than 250 mm. 25 percent is Iran of located in hyper-dry area and 40 percent in the arid area. In 2007, the World Bank report declared the annual reduction of freshwater resources in Iran 6 times more than global standards and indicators. Since at present, in Iran most available fresh water enters the water ecosystems, their management is vitally important due to climate changes and water quality parameters. Methods: In this study, long- term changes of some parameters including hardness, dissolved solids and EC, pH, HCO3, Ca, Na, Mg, Cl and SO4 were investigated for a period of 44 years in two key rivers (Neka and Tajan rivers in the north of Iran. Results: The results show that there was the same changes pattern in all parameters in both rivers. The highest level of correlation was between electrical conductivity and dissolved solids in both rivers. Also, due to the similarity of the hydrological characteristics of the rivers, the impact of area development by local people is playing a major role in the environmental health. Conclusion: Although Iran's northern regions have high rate of precipitation, status of water quality parameters is an indicator of low levels of water quality and its pollution.

  13. Long-term change of site response after the M W 9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chunquan; Peng, Zhigang

    2012-12-01

    The recent M W 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake is the largest recorded earthquake in Japan's history. The Tohoku main shock and its aftershocks generated widespread strong shakings as large as ~3000 Gal along the east coast of Japan. Wu and Peng (2011) found clear drop of resonant frequency of up to 70% during the Tohoku main shock at 6 sites and correlation of resonance (peak) frequency and peak ground acceleration (PGA) during the main shock. Here we follow that study and systematically analyze long-term changes of material properties in the shallow crust from one year before to 5 months after the Tohoku main shock, using seismic data recorded by the Japanese Strong Motion Network KiK-Net. We use sliding window spectral ratios computed from a pair of surface and borehole stations to track the temporal changes in the site response of 6 sites. Our results show two stages of logarithmic recovery after a sharp drop of resonance frequency during the Tohoku main shock. The first stage is a rapid recovery within several hundred seconds to several hours, and the second stage is a slow recovery of more than five months. We also investigate whether the damage caused by the Tohoku main shock could make the near surface layers more susceptible to further damages, but we do not observe clear changes in susceptibility to further damage before and after the Tohoku main shock.

  14. NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Chen, Jilong; Lü, Mingquan

    2017-01-01

    Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the

  15. Long Term Quantification of Climate and Land Cover Change Impacts on Streamflow in an Alpine River Catchment, Northwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenliang Yin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the long term impacts of climate and land cover change on streamflow is of great important for sustainable water resources management in inland river basins. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was employed to simulate the streamflow in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwestern China, over the last half century. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2 was selected to calibrate and validate the SWAT model. The results showed that both Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and determination coefficient (R2 were over 0.93 for calibration and validation periods, the percent bias (PBIAS of the two periods were—3.47% and 1.81%, respectively. The precipitation, average, maximum, and minimum air temperature were all showing increasing trends, with 14.87 mm/10 years, 0.30 °C/10 years, 0.27 °C/10 year, and 0.37 °C/10 years, respectively. Runoff coefficient has increased from 0.36 (averaged during 1964 to 1988 to 0.39 (averaged during 1989 to 2013. Based on the SWAT simulation, we quantified the contribution of climate and land cover change to streamflow change, indicated that the land cover change had a positive impact on river discharge by increasing 7.12% of the streamflow during 1964 to 1988, and climate change contributed 14.08% for the streamflow increasing over last 50 years. Meanwhile, the climate change impact was intensive after 2000s. The increasing of streamflow contributed to the increasing of total streamflow by 64.1% for cold season (November to following March and 35.9% for warm season (April to October. The results provide some references for dealing with climate and land cover change in an inland river basin for water resource management and planning.

  16. Predicting the impact of long-term temperature changes on the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis: a mechanistic model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara D Mangal

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Many parasites of medical and veterinary importance are transmitted by cold-blooded intermediate hosts or vectors, the abundance of which will vary with ambient temperatures, potentially altering disease prevalence. In particular, if global climate change will increase mean ambient temperature in a region endemic with a human pathogen then it is possible that the incidence of disease will similarly increase. Here we examine this possibility by using a mathematical model to explore the effects of increasing long-term mean ambient temperature on the prevalence and abundance of the parasite Schistosoma mansoni, the causative agent of schistosomiasis in humans.The model showed that the impact of temperature on disease prevalence and abundance is not straightforward; the mean infection burden in humans increases up to 30 degrees C, but then crashes at 35 degrees C, primarily due to increased mortalities of the snail intermediate host. In addition, increased temperatures changed the dynamics of disease from stable, endemic infection to unstable, epidemic cycles at 35 degrees C. However, the prevalence of infection was largely unchanged by increasing temperatures. Temperature increases also affected the response of the model to changes in each parameter, indicating certain control strategies may become less effective with local temperature changes. At lower temperatures, the most effective single control strategy is to target the adult parasites through chemotherapy. However, as temperatures increase, targeting the snail intermediate hosts, for example through molluscicide use, becomes more effective.These results show that S. mansoni will not respond to increased temperatures in a linear fashion, and the optimal control strategy is likely to change as temperatures change. It is only through a mechanistic approach, incorporating the combined effects of temperature on all stages of the life-cycle, that we can begin to predict the consequences of climate

  17. Wildlife disease ecology from the individual to the population: Insights from a long-term study of a naturally infected European badger population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Jenni L; Robertson, Andrew; Silk, Matthew J

    2018-01-01

    Long-term individual-based datasets on host-pathogen systems are a rare and valuable resource for understanding the infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. A study of European badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) at Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire (UK) has produced a unique dataset, facilitating investigation of a diverse range of epidemiological and ecological questions with implications for disease management. Since the 1970s, this badger population has been monitored with a systematic mark-recapture regime yielding a dataset of >15,000 captures of >3,000 individuals, providing detailed individual life-history, morphometric, genetic, reproductive and disease data. The annual prevalence of bTB in the Woodchester Park badger population exhibits no straightforward relationship with population density, and both the incidence and prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis show marked variation in space. The study has revealed phenotypic traits that are critical for understanding the social structure of badger populations along with mechanisms vital for understanding disease spread at different spatial resolutions. Woodchester-based studies have provided key insights into how host ecology can influence infection at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, it has revealed heterogeneity in epidemiological parameters; intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting population dynamics; provided insights into senescence and individual life histories; and revealed consistent individual variation in foraging patterns, refuge use and social interactions. An improved understanding of ecological and epidemiological processes is imperative for effective disease management. Woodchester Park research has provided information of direct relevance to bTB management, and a better appreciation of the role of individual heterogeneity in disease transmission can contribute further in this regard. The Woodchester Park study system now offers a rare

  18. Visual long-term memory and change blindness: Different effects of pre- and post-change information on one-shot change detection using meaningless geometric objects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishiyama, Megumi; Kawaguchi, Jun

    2014-11-01

    To clarify the relationship between visual long-term memory (VLTM) and online visual processing, we investigated whether and how VLTM involuntarily affects the performance of a one-shot change detection task using images consisting of six meaningless geometric objects. In the study phase, participants observed pre-change (Experiment 1), post-change (Experiment 2), or both pre- and post-change (Experiment 3) images appearing in the subsequent change detection phase. In the change detection phase, one object always changed between pre- and post-change images and participants reported which object was changed. Results showed that VLTM of pre-change images enhanced the performance of change detection, while that of post-change images decreased accuracy. Prior exposure to both pre- and post-change images did not influence performance. These results indicate that pre-change information plays an important role in change detection, and that information in VLTM related to the current task does not always have a positive effect on performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Mesenchymal stromal cells of osteosarcoma patients do not show evidence of neoplastic changes during long-term culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buddingh, Emilie P; Ruslan, S Eriaty N; Reijnders, Christianne M A; Szuhai, Karoly; Kuijjer, Marieke L; Roelofs, Helene; Hogendoorn, Pancras C W; Maarten Egeler, R; Cleton-Jansen, Anne-Marie; Lankester, Arjan C

    2015-01-01

    In vitro expanded mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) are increasingly used as experimental cellular therapy. However, there have been concerns regarding the safety of their use, particularly with regard to possible oncogenic transformation. MSCs are the hypothesized precursor cells of high-grade osteosarcoma, a tumor with often complex karyotypes occurring mainly in adolescents and young adults. To determine if MSCs from osteosarcoma patients could be predisposed to malignant transformation we cultured MSCs of nine osteosarcoma patients and five healthy donors for an average of 649 days (range 601-679 days). Also, we compared MSCs derived from osteosarcoma patients at diagnosis and from healthy donors using genome wide gene expression profiling. Upon increasing passage, increasing frequencies of binucleate cells were detected, but no increase in proliferation suggestive of malignant transformation occurred in MSCs from either patients or donors. Hematopoietic cell specific Lyn substrate 1 (HLCS1) was differentially expressed (fold change 0.25, P value 0.0005) between MSCs of osteosarcoma patients (n = 14) and healthy donors (n = 9). This study shows that although HCLS1 expression was downregulated in MSCs of osteosarcoma patients and binucleate cells were present in both patient and donor derived MSCs, there was no evidence of neoplastic changes to occur during long-term culture.

  20. The times they are a-changing: Self-directed long-term services and supports and gerontological social work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciegaj, Mark; Hooyman, Nancy R; Mahoney, Kevin J; DeLuca, Casey

    2018-03-05

    The Partnerships for Person-Centered (PC) and Participant-Directed (PD) Long-Term Services and Supports (LTSS) Project (Partnerships Project) was a three-year effort funded by the New York Community Trust to develop and implement social work curriculum that would better prepare students for the changing practice demands of the aging and disability services network for self-directed LTSS (SD-LTSS). This article first describes the growth of SD-LTSS and the need for trained social workers on this service delivery model. The paper then describes the Partnerships Project that involved schools of social work along and aging and disability network organization partners in nine states. This description includes the major activities of the project including the creation of SD-LTSS competencies for social work education, the infusion of these competencies in beginning and advanced social work classes, and student assessment of their attainment of these competencies. This article then discusses the challenges to institutionalizing such curricular changes within social work programs and the need for a national strategy to train social workers for the demands of SD-LTSS.

  1. A long-term evaluation of the stage of change approach and compensable injury outcomes - a cluster-randomised trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothmore, Paul; Aylward, Paul; Gray, Jodi; Karnon, Jonathan

    2017-05-01

    This study investigated the long-term injury outcomes for workers in companies from a range of industries which had been randomly allocated to receive ergonomics interventions tailored according to the stage of change (SOC) approach or standard ergonomics advice. Differences in compensable injury outcomes between the groups were analysed using logistic regression models. Questionnaire results from face-to-face interviews to assess musculoskeletal pain and discomfort (MSPD), job satisfaction and other factors were also analysed. Although not significant at the 0.05 level, after adjusting for workgroup clustering, workers in receipt of tailored advice were 55% (OR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.19-1.08) less likely to report a compensable injury than those in receipt of standard ergonomics advice. Workload, job satisfaction and MSPD were significantly correlated with injury outcomes. The observed outcomes support the potential value of the SOC approach, as well as highlighting the need to consider workload, job satisfaction and MSPD when planning injury prevention programmes. Practitioner Summary: This study investigated compensable injury outcomes for workers who had received ergonomics advice tailored according to the stage of change (SOC) approach compared with standard ergonomics advice. The results support the potential value of the SOC approach and highlight the need to consider workload, job satisfaction and musculoskeletal pain and discomfort when planning injury prevention interventions.

  2. Analysis on long-term change of energy system structure in Japan considering CO2 emission and domestic demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurokawa, Shingo; Tabe, Yutaka; Chikahisa, Takemi

    2011-01-01

    Long-term change of energy system structure in Japan was analyzed to investigate the effect of the CO 2 emission reduction level on the reduction cost using MARKAL model. The MARKAL is composed of energy resources, energy supply technologies, energy ultimate demand technologies and energy service demands with them connected by energy carriers. This paper presents analyses investigating the CO 2 reduction cost and the energy structure change until 2050. Here, we focused on the domestic investment to reduce CO 2 emission. It was shown that the CO 2 reduction until 40% level promotes the energy conversion from coal to natural gas and it causes the increase in total cost of the imported fuel. The higher CO 2 reduction, however, increases the domestic investment for low-emission vehicles, photovoltaic power generation and so on, and decreases the overseas investment, although the total CO 2 reduction cost is increased. This contributes to the revitalization of Japanese economy, together with the reduction of overseas investment. (author)

  3. Long-term Evaluation of Landuse Changes On Landscape Water Balance - A Case Study From North-east Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegehenkel, M.

    In this paper, long-term effects of different afforestation scenarios on landscape wa- ter balance will be analyzed taking into account the results of a regional case study. This analysis is based on using a GIS-coupled simulation model for the the spatially distributed calculation of water balance.For this purpose, the modelling system THE- SEUS with a simple GIS-interface will be used. To take into account the special case of change in forest cover proportion, THESEUS was enhanced with a simple for- est growth model. In the regional case study, model runs will be performed using a detailed spatial data set from North-East Germany. This data set covers a mesoscale catchment located at the moraine landscape of North-East Germany. Based on this data set, the influence of the actual landuse and of different landuse change scenarios on water balance dynamics will be investigated taking into account the spatial distributed modelling results from THESEUS. The model was tested using different experimen- tal data sets from field plots as well as obsverded catchment discharge. Additionally to such convential validation techniques, remote sensing data were used to check the simulated regional distribution of water balance components like evapotranspiration in the catchment.

  4. Use of an integrated human health/ecological risk assessment to develop a long-term groundwater/site management plan for a sour gas facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swanson, S.M.; Shaw, R.D.; McClymont, G.; Nadeau, S.

    1995-01-01

    An integrated human health and ecological risk assessment was used to quantify the level of risk associated with the off-site movement of contaminants via groundwater and soils at a medium-sized gas processing facility in southern Alberta. The study incorporated three key aspects: (1) integration; (2) consultation; and, (3) pro-active remedial actions. Integration was complete, beginning with the Problem Formulation stage and progressing through Risk Characterization and Risk Management. This integration was reflected in a multidisciplinary team of hydrogeologists, biologists and human health specialists. Several lessons emerged from the integrated approach: (1) spending 2/3 of the time and resources on Problem Formulation prevented later problems; (2) the different perspectives provided by the various specialists helped reveal the relative importance of pathways and ecological receptors (3) clear, consistent screening procedures for contaminants of concern and receptors were very effective with stakeholders; (4) exposure scenarios that incorporated common-sense situations (although still conservative) contributed to the credibility of the risk analysis; and, (5) an innovative combination of toxicity testing and chemical analysis helped delineate the boundaries of the potentially contaminated area for both human and ecological receptors in a cost effective manner. Consultation included directly affected parties, regulatory personnel and community members. The consultation extended through the project, with key ''buy-in'' points during Problem Formulation and Risk Characterization/Management. Pro-active remedial action included the removal of contaminant sources in the 1980's, a pump-and-treat system and extensive monitoring. These actions showed commitment and set the stage for credible risk-based mitigation and long-term monitoring

  5. Long-term feeding ecology and habitat use in harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena from Scandinavian waters inferred from trace elements and stable isotopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gobert Sylvie

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We investigated the feeding ecology and habitat use of 32 harbour porpoises by-caught in 4 localities along the Scandinavian coast from the North Sea to the Barents Sea using time-integrative markers: stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N and trace elements (Zn, Cu, Fe, Se, total Hg and Cd, in relation to habitat characteristics (bathymetry and geographic position (latitude. Results Among the trace elements analysed, only Cd, with an oceanic specific food origin, was found to be useful as an ecological tracer. All other trace elements studied were not useful, most likely because of physiological regulation and/or few specific sources in the food web. The δ13C, δ15N signatures and Cd levels were highly correlated with each other, as well as with local bathymetry and geographic position (latitude. Variation in the isotopic ratios indicated a shift in harbour porpoise's feeding habits from pelagic prey species in deep northern waters to more coastal and/or demersal prey in the relatively shallow North Sea and Skagerrak waters. This result is consistent with stomach content analyses found in the literature. This shift was associated with a northward Cd-enrichment which provides further support to the Cd 'anomaly' previously reported in polar waters and suggests that porpoises in deep northern waters include Cd-contaminated prey in their diet, such as oceanic cephalopods. Conclusion As stable isotopes and Cd provide information in the medium and the long term respectively, the spatial variation found, shows that harbour porpoises experience different ecological regimes during the year along the Scandinavian coasts, adapting their feeding habits to local oceanographic conditions, without performing extensive migration.

  6. Long-term feeding ecology and habitat use in harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena from Scandinavian waters inferred from trace elements and stable isotopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Michaël C; Tolley, Krystal A; Siebert, Ursula; Gobert, Sylvie; Lepoint, Gilles; Bouquegneau, Jean-Marie; Das, Krishna

    2007-01-17

    We investigated the feeding ecology and habitat use of 32 harbour porpoises by-caught in 4 localities along the Scandinavian coast from the North Sea to the Barents Sea using time-integrative markers: stable isotopes (delta13C, delta15N) and trace elements (Zn, Cu, Fe, Se, total Hg and Cd), in relation to habitat characteristics (bathymetry) and geographic position (latitude). Among the trace elements analysed, only Cd, with an oceanic specific food origin, was found to be useful as an ecological tracer. All other trace elements studied were not useful, most likely because of physiological regulation and/or few specific sources in the food web. The delta13C, delta15N signatures and Cd levels were highly correlated with each other, as well as with local bathymetry and geographic position (latitude). Variation in the isotopic ratios indicated a shift in harbour porpoise's feeding habits from pelagic prey species in deep northern waters to more coastal and/or demersal prey in the relatively shallow North Sea and Skagerrak waters. This result is consistent with stomach content analyses found in the literature. This shift was associated with a northward Cd-enrichment which provides further support to the Cd 'anomaly' previously reported in polar waters and suggests that porpoises in deep northern waters include Cd-contaminated prey in their diet, such as oceanic cephalopods. As stable isotopes and Cd provide information in the medium and the long term respectively, the spatial variation found, shows that harbour porpoises experience different ecological regimes during the year along the Scandinavian coasts, adapting their feeding habits to local oceanographic conditions, without performing extensive migration.

  7. Evidence from a rare case-study for Hebbian-like changes in structural connectivity induced by long-term deep brain stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim J Van Hartevelt

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available It is unclear whether Hebbian-like learning occurs at the level of long-range white matter connections in humans, i.e. where measurable changes in structural connectivity are correlated with changes in functional connectivity. However, the behavioral changes observed after deep brain stimulation (DBS suggest the existence of such Hebbian-like mechanisms occurring at the structural level with functional consequences. In this rare case study, we obtained the full network of white matter connections of one patient with Parkinson's disease before and after long-term DBS and combined it with a computational model of ongoing activity to investigate the effects of DBS-induced long-term structural changes. The results show that the long-term effects of DBS on resting-state functional connectivity is best obtained in the computational model by changing the structural weights from the subthalamic nucleus to the putamen and the thalamus in a Hebbian-like manner. Moreover, long-term DBS also significantly changed the structural connectivity towards normality in terms of model-based measures of segregation and integration of information processing, two key concepts of brain organization. This novel approach using computational models to model the effects of Hebbian-like changes in structural connectivity allowed us to causally identify the possible underlying neural mechanisms of long-term DBS using rare case study data. In time, this could help predict the efficacy of individual DBS targeting and identify novel DBS targets.

  8. Long-term Satellite NDVI Data Sets: Evaluating Their Ability to Detect Ecosystem Functional Changes in South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldi, Germán; Nosetto, Marcelo D; Aragón, Roxana; Aversa, Fernando; Paruelo, José M; Jobbágy, Esteban G

    2008-09-03

    In the last decades, South American ecosystems underwent important functional modifications due to climate alterations and direct human intervention on land use and land cover. Among remotely sensed data sets, NOAA-AVHRR "Normalized Difference Vegetation Index" (NDVI) represents one of the most powerful tools to evaluate these changes thanks to their extended temporal coverage. In this paper we explored the possibilities and limitations of three commonly used NOAA-AVHRR NDVI series (PAL, GIMMS and FASIR) to detect ecosystem functional changes in the South American continent. We performed pixel-based linear regressions for four NDVI variables (average annual, maximum annual, minimum annual and intra-annual coefficient of variation) for the 1982-1999 period and (1) analyzed the convergences and divergences of significant multi-annual trends identified across all series, (2) explored the degree of aggregation of the trends using the O-ring statistic, and (3) evaluated observed trends using independent information on ecosystem functional changes in five focal regions. Several differences arose in terms of the patterns of change (the sign, localization and total number of pixels with changes). FASIR presented the highest proportion of changing pixels (32.7%) and GIMMS the lowest (16.2%). PAL and FASIR data sets showed the highest agreement, with a convergence of detected trends on 71.2% of the pixels. Even though positive and negative changes showed substantial spatial aggregation, important differences in the scale of aggregation emerged among the series, with GIMMS showing the smaller scale (≤11 pixels). The independent evaluations suggest higher accuracy in the detection of ecosystem changes among PAL and FASIR series than with GIMMS, as they detected trends that match expected shifts. In fact, this last series eliminated most of the long term patterns over the continent. For example, in the "Eastern Paraguay" and "Uruguay River margins" focal regions, the

  9. Long-term changes in nitrate conditions over the 20th century in two Midwestern Corn Belt streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Valerie J.; Stets, Edward G.; Crawford, Charles G.

    2015-01-01

    Long-term changes in nitrate concentration and flux between the middle of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century were estimated for the Des Moines River and the Middle Illinois River, two Midwestern Corn Belt streams, using a novel weighted regression approach that is able to detect subtle changes in solute transport behavior over time. The results show that the largest changes in flow-normalized concentration and flux occurred between 1960 and 1980 in both streams, with smaller or negligible changes between 1980 and 2004. Contrasting patterns were observed between (1) nitrate export linked to non-point sources, explicitly runoff of synthetic fertilizer or other surface sources and (2) nitrate export presumably associated with point sources such as urban wastewater or confined livestock feeding facilities, with each of these modes of transport important under different domains of streamflow. Surface runoff was estimated to be consistently most important under high-flow conditions during the spring in both rivers. Nitrate export may also have been considerable in the Des Moines River even under some conditions during the winter when flows are generally lower, suggesting the influence of point sources during this time. Similar results were shown for the Middle Illinois River, which is subject to significant influence of wastewater from the Chicago area, where elevated nitrate concentrations were associated with at the lowest flows during the winter and fall. By modeling concentration directly, this study highlights the complex relationship between concentration and streamflow that has evolved in these two basins over the last 50 years. This approach provides insights about changing conditions that only become observable when stationarity in the relationship between concentration and streamflow is not assumed.

  10. Long-term spatiotemporal stability and dynamic changes in helminth infracommunities of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in NE Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzybek, Maciej; Bajer, Anna; Bednarska, Małgorzata; Al-Sarraf, Mohammed; Behnke-Borowczyk, Jolanta; Harris, Philip D; Price, Stephen J; Brown, Gabrielle S; Osborne, Sarah-Jane; Siński, Edward; Behnke, Jerzy M

    2015-12-01

    Parasites are considered to be an important selective force in host evolution but ecological studies of host-parasite systems are usually short-term providing only snap-shots of what may be dynamic systems. We have conducted four surveys of helminths of bank voles at three ecologically similar woodland sites in NE Poland, spaced over a period of 11 years, to assess the relative importance of temporal and spatial effects on helminth infracommunities. Some measures of infracommunity structure maintained relative stability: the rank order of prevalence and abundance of Heligmosomum mixtum, Heligmosomoides glareoli and Mastophorus muris changed little between the four surveys. Other measures changed markedly: dynamic changes were evident in Syphacia petrusewiczi which declined to local extinction, while the capillariid Aonchotheca annulosa first appeared in 2002 and then increased in prevalence and abundance over the remaining three surveys. Some species are therefore dynamic and both introductions and extinctions can be expected in ecological time. At higher taxonomic levels and for derived measures, year and host-age effects and their interactions with site are important. Our surveys emphasize that the site of capture is the major determinant of the species contributing to helminth community structure, providing some predictability in these systems.

  11. Long-term temporal changes in central European tree phenology (1946-2010) confirm the recent extension of growing seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolářová, Eva; Nekovář, Jiří; Adamík, Peter

    2014-10-01

    One of the ways to assess the impacts of climate change on plants is analysing their long-term phenological data. We studied phenological records of 18 common tree species and their 8 phenological phases, spanning 65 years (1946-2010) and covering the area of the Czech Republic. For each species and phenophase, we assessed the changes in its annual means (for detecting shifts in the timing of the event) and standard deviations (for detecting changes in duration of the phenophases). The prevailing pattern across tree species was that since around the year 1976, there has been a consistent advancement of the onset of spring phenophases (leaf unfolding and flowering) and subsequent acceleration of fruit ripening, and a delay of autumn phenophases (leaf colouring and leaf falling). The most considerable shifts in the timing of spring phenophases were displayed by early-successional short-lived tree species. The most pronounced temporal shifts were found for the beginning of seed ripening in conifers with an advancement in this phenophase of up to 2.2 days year-1 in Scots Pine ( Pinus sylvestris). With regards to the change in duration of the phenophases, no consistent patterns were revealed. The growing season has extended on average by 23.8 days during the last 35 years. The most considerable prolongation was found in Pedunculate Oak ( Quercus robur): 31.6 days (1976-2010). Extended growing season lengths do have the potential to increase growth and seed productivity, but unequal shifts among species might alter competitive relationships within ecosystems.

  12. Effects of long-term land use change on dissolved carbon characteristics in the permafrost streams of northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yuedong; Song, Changchun; Wan, Zhongmei; Tan, Wenwen; Lu, Yongzheng; Qiao, Tianhua

    2014-11-01

    Permafrost soils act as large sinks of organic carbon but are highly sensitive to interference such as changes in land use, which can greatly influence dissolved carbon loads in streams. This study examines the effects of long-term land reclamation on seasonal concentrations of dissolved carbons in the upper reaches of the Nenjiang River, northeast China. A comparison of streams in natural and agricultural systems shows that the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration is much lower in the agricultural stream (AG) than in the two natural streams (WAF, wetland dominated; FR, forest dominated), suggesting that land use change is associated with reduced DOC exporting capacity. Moreover, the fluorescence indexes and the ratio of dissolved carbon to nitrogen also differ greatly between the natural and agricultural streams, indicating that the chemical characteristics and the origin of the DOC r