Climate Change and Climate Policy: An Inconvenient Issue, in the Low Countries Too

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leroy, P.

2008-01-01

Climate policy in Belgium and the Netherlands exhibits all the dilemmas of policy-making at the present juncture: the policy has to be global, but the political system remains largely national, and therefore operates on a relatively ineffective scale. The policy has to be long-term, but politicians

On the efficiency of climate policies international coordination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalil, Helioui

2006-01-01

This article analyses the economic efficiency of climate policies international coordination acknowledging long term perspectives and political constraints. It questions the economic and political viability of emission trading with respect to market power and dynamic distortions. The latter proves more worrying. While one may reasonably expect national positions being decentralized, the Climate Convention cannot commit on long term emission objectives. As a consequence, there is room for strategic behaviour by governments. Structural public programs, crucial to curb long term emissions, are likely to be scaled down because governments expect post-2012 quotas to be revised according to observed trends. This might jeopardize the climate action and further weaken the political consensus it requires. Are carbon taxes a better policy option? It might be the case provided the tax is levied at the international level, but this option faces political obstacles. A hybrid scheme should realize a good compromise between economic efficiency and political acceptability. (author)

Impact assessment of climate change on tourism in the Pacific small islands based on the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, S.; Utsumi, N.; Take, M.; Iida, A.

2016-12-01

This study aims to develop a new approach to assess the impact of climate change on the small oceanic islands in the Pacific. In the new approach, the change of the probabilities of various situations was projected with considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations, instead of projecting the most probable situation. The database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) is a database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments, which has the results of 100 ensemble simulations. We utilized the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which was (a long-term and high-resolution database) composed of results of 100 ensemble experiments. A new methodology, Multi Threshold Ensemble Assessment (MTEA), was developed using the d4PDF in order to assess the impact of climate change. We focused on the impact of climate change on tourism because it has played an important role in the economy of the Pacific Islands. The Yaeyama Region, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan, was selected as the case study site. Two kinds of impact were assessed: change in probability of extreme climate phenomena and tourist satisfaction associated with weather. The database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and the questionnaire survey conducted by a local government were used for the assessment. The result indicated that the strength of extreme events would be increased, whereas the probability of occurrence would be decreased. This change should result in increase of the number of clear days and it could contribute to improve the tourist satisfaction.

Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph

2015-01-01

Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO 2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO 2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO 2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO 2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions. (letter)

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

2014-12-01

The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

Short-term decisions under long-term uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tol, R.S.J.

1998-01-01

The behaviour of future policy-makers substantially influences future greenhouse gas emissions. Uncertainty about the motives of future policy-makers may thus strongly influence the climate policy strategies of current policy-makers. Analytical and numerical analyses in this paper confirm this hypothesis. If current policy-makers want to constrain emissions accumulated over a prolonged period of time, and if future policy-makers tend, with a certain chance, to a less ambitious climate policy, then current policy-makers should intensify their efforts to reduce emissions and the cost of emission reduction. In this setting, if current policy-makers want to meet a cumulative emission constraint in expectation, then the preferred policy trajectory does not qualitatively deviate from one suggested by a standard cost-effective trajectory. If, however, the constraint is to be met with a certain probability, then the importance of early action is enhanced relative to that of postponed action. Costs substantially increase if current policy-makers want to set long-term goals without the full cooperation of future policy-makers. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Developing a long-term global tourism transport model using a behavioural approach: implications for sustainable tourism policy making.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, P.M.

2013-01-01

This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary.

Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren, D.P. van

2007-01-01

In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As uncertainties

Short-term versus long-term approaches to the development of tourism-related policies

OpenAIRE

Dredge, Dianne

2015-01-01

Tourism policy development is an increasingly complex activity involving multiple public sector agencies, industry and community stakeholders and non-government organisations at different scales. This discussion paper examines the implications for tourism of governments adopting short- term versus long-term approaches to the development of tourism related policies and identifies policy considerations to maximize the growth potential of tourism. The key issue is to understand how governments c...

Mapping long-term wetland response to climate

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Q.; Gallant, A.; Rover, J.

2016-12-01

Wetlands provide unique feeding and breeding habitat for numerous waterfowl species. The distribution of wetlands has been considerably changed due to agricultural land conversion and hydrologic modification. Climate change may further impact wetlands through altered moisture regimes. This study characterized long-term variation in wetland conditions by using dense time series from all available Landsat data from 1985 to 2014. We extracted harmonic frequencies from 30 years to two years to delineate the long-term variation in all seven Landsat bands. A cluster analysis and unsupervised classification then enabled us to map different classes of wetland response. We demonstrated the method in the Prairie Pothole Region in North Dakota.

Energy and climate policies of the USA during the two Barack Obama's terms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meritet, Sophie; Monjon, Stephanie

2016-02-01

As Barack Obama, from its first presidential campaign to its second term, supported the development of low carbon energies, the protection of climate and of the environment, the development of renewable energies, but also the development of non conventional fossil resources (during his second term), the authors first propose an analysis of the situation of the USA in terms of energy and of greenhouse gas emissions. They highlight the good situation of energy: USA are the first world producer, natural gas is being developed, coal is still present, and electric power is a centre of attention. The evolution of greenhouse gas emissions is discussed for the electricity sector and for the transport sector. In the next part, the authors discuss the content of the different policies implemented during both terms. These policies can be characterized by a strong support to renewable energies at the federal as well as state level, contrasted choices among states in terms of climate policy, federal initiatives for climate (reduction of CO_2 emissions in electric power plants, reduction of methane emissions, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors), and actions on the international scene

Introducing short term flexibility in the EU ETS to assure its long-term credibility: a multi-criteria analysis of policy options. Climate Report no. 45

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desai, Zuheir; Alberola, Emilie; Berghmans, Nicolas

2014-07-01

It is now well established that the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) needs to be reformed. After more than 18 months of discussions, the EU Commission disclosed, in its communication published in January 2014 on 'A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030', its legislative proposal of a market stability reserve (MSR) in the EU ETS. This measure, that should be implemented from the next compliance period (2021-2028) onwards, would reduce the surplus of allowances growing since 2008 and improve the ETS's resilience to external shocks by automatically adjusting the supply of allowances to be auctioned. The operation of this MSR would be determined by predefined rules that, once agreed on, leave no discretion to either the Commission or Member States. The choice of the EU Commission to introduce a reserve in the EU ETS is very innovative even if other emissions trading schemes have already introduced a reserve in their design. Initial discussions began in March and April 2014 in the European Parliament and Council and the question of whether the MSR really improves the functioning of the EU ETS in the long term is still being debated. What other structural mechanism would be better suited in improving the long-term effectiveness of the EU ETS? To help in the decision making process, this report presents a multi-criteria analysis. Without prejudging their political support, five policy options have been evaluated that would introduce some flexibility in the EU ETS and potentially ensure its long-term credibility: an auction reserve price, permit supply rules that target a certain corridor of surplus (market stability reserve), permit supply rules that target economic activity, permit supply rules that target overlap with other energy policies and a rolling emissions cap. The assessment of these five policy options was based on a criteria tree and on the EU ETS experts' panel's votes that expressed

Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing Pei

2014-06-01

Full Text Available We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China. By using updated data and statistical methods, the study solved several unanswered questions from past research about the relationship between climate change and the nomadic migration, especially over the long term and on a large spatial scale. The study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively verify the following causal pathway: climate change â†' nomadic migration â†' conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists. In the long term, precipitation was a statistically more influential factor on nomadic migration than temperature in historical China. How climate change affects the migration of nomadic minorities in the long term is theoretically explained based on the Push-Pull model as well as statistical evidence.

Long-term care policy for older Americans: building a continuum of care.

Science.gov (United States)

Palley, Howard A

2003-01-01

This paper deals primarily with social policy considerations relevant to the development of long-term care policy for the frail elderly in the United States. However, it also includes some commentary on meeting the acute care needs of the frail elderly. It defines chronic care treatment as a mix of "short-term" and "long-term" modes of care. Furthermore, it explores the need for treatment of such long-term illnesses to recognize the importance of alternative modes of caring which include strategies, both medical and nonmedical, delivered within and outside of hospitals and nursing homes. The paper includes an analysis of public and private sector priorities based in data published by the U.S. Health Care Financing Administration. It also includes some discussion of the PACE program in the United States and some other efforts to stimulate more in-home and community-based alternatives to nursing home care. Furthermore, it includes a discussion of the policy goal of "appropriateness" in developing long-term care (as well as general health priorities) and provides a critical discussion of problems with utilizing "cost/benefit analysis." The study concludes that too exclusive a focus on nursing home care for the elderly in the United States is unfortunate-both in terms of the desires of the elderly, their families and friends and in terms of focusing on "appropriateness" as a legitimate policy goal in the development of long-term care policy for the elderly in the United States.

Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Longden, Thomas

2013-01-01

With a focus on the interaction between long-term climate targets and personal transport we review the electrification of light duty vehicles (LDVs) within a model that utilizes a learning-by-researching structure. By modeling the demand of vehicles, the use of fuels and emissions implied, the model solves for the optimum RD and D investments that decrease the cost of hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. A range of technology and climate policy scenarios provide long term projections of vehicle use that highlight the potential synergies between innovation in the transportation sector and the energy sector. We find that even when the capital cost of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) remains higher than that of traditional combustion engine alternatives, EDVs are likely to play a key role in the decarbonisation implied by stringent climate policy. Limited innovation in batteries results in notable increases in policy costs consistent with a two degree climate policy target. - Highlights: • Significant increase in vehicles across regions in the medium to long term future. • Climate policy costs are sensitive to a lack of electric drive vehicles (EDVs). • Achieving 450ppm with no change in battery costs has a policy cost that is 2.86 percentage points higher than the base 450ppm scenario. • Climate policy hastens the introduction of electrified vehicles, however EDVs do not become the dominant vehicle of choice before the middle of the century

Air quality: how to assess air quality management policies on a short and on a long term? The integration of the climate factor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prevot, Aurelie

2014-01-01

This document presents the activities and works performed by the INERIS Institute in the development of tools for the assessment of air quality management policies including the climate factor. This comprises the development of simulations within the frame of the SALUT'AIR project, and also within the frame of the reviewing of the European policy on air quality (directives 2008/50/CE on ambient air quality and 2001/81/CE on national limits of emissions of some pollutants). The CHIMERE model of chemistry and transport is one of these tools. Simulations are performed to analyse the impact of scenarios of air quality management on a short term, in terms of pollutant emissions, pollutant concentration, and particle concentrations. The integration of a climate factor is justified by the existence of interactions between climate and air quality

Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-08-01

The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

Life after Kyoto? Exploration of long term strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Vuuren, D.P.

2001-01-01

The current international climate negotiations (including CoP-6,recently held in The Hague, Netherlands) are mainly concerned with short term actions and barriers, and are experiencing considerable difficulties, as was once again revealed in The Hague. But we should not forget that keeping climate risks under control also demands a long term perspective. Such a perspective demands an estimate of both possible consequences and risks of climate change, and the possible solutions, in terms of strategies, policy measures, consequences and costs. 2 refs

Short-term versus long-term approaches to the development of tourism-related policies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dredge, Dianne

Tourism policy development is an increasingly complex activity involving multiple public sector agencies, industry and community stakeholders and non-government organisations at different scales. This discussion paper examines the implications for tourism of governments adopting short- term versus...... long-term approaches to the development of tourism related policies and identifies policy considerations to maximize the growth potential of tourism. The key issue is to understand how governments can strengthen their support for tourism growth and development by taking an integrated cross......-sector policy approach. The discussion paper commences by examining the unique character of tourism policyscape and recognises that it involves a wide variety of inter-linked policy sectors that often operate and develop policies in separate policy processes. Little attention is placed on cross-sector policy...

Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loaiciga, Hugo A

2009-01-01

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

Toward a comprehensive long term nicotine policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, N; Henningfield, J E; Benowitz, N L; Connolly, G N; Dresler, C; Fagerstrom, K; Jarvis, M J; Boyle, P

2005-06-01

Global tobacco deaths are high and rising. Tobacco use is primarily driven by nicotine addiction. Overall tobacco control policy is relatively well agreed upon but a long term nicotine policy has been less well considered and requires further debate. Reaching consensus is important because a nicotine policy is integral to the target of reducing tobacco caused disease, and the contentious issues need to be resolved before the necessary political changes can be sought. A long term and comprehensive nicotine policy is proposed here. It envisages both reducing the attractiveness and addictiveness of existing tobacco based nicotine delivery systems as well as providing alternative sources of acceptable clean nicotine as competition for tobacco. Clean nicotine is defined as nicotine free enough of tobacco toxicants to pass regulatory approval. A three phase policy is proposed. The initial phase requires regulatory capture of cigarette and smoke constituents liberalising the market for clean nicotine; regulating all nicotine sources from the same agency; and research into nicotine absorption and the role of tobacco additives in this process. The second phase anticipates clean nicotine overtaking tobacco as the primary source of the drug (facilitated by use of regulatory and taxation measures); simplification of tobacco products by limitation of additives which make tobacco attractive and easier to smoke (but tobacco would still be able to provide a satisfying dose of nicotine). The third phase includes a progressive reduction in the nicotine content of cigarettes, with clean nicotine freely available to take the place of tobacco as society's main nicotine source.

Resuming growth in Latin America: short and long term policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julio Lopez G.

2008-09-01

Full Text Available The authors of this paper assert that the paralysis of the state generated by the crises of the 1970s and 1980s deprived the economies of the region of an important lever to resume and sustain growth. They thus maintain that to overcome stagnation it will be necessary to reconstruct the state's capacity to implement pro-growth policies. Following Keynes and Kalecki's ideas, but also classical development economists, the authors argue, first, that short-term macroeconomic policies, to reduce unemployment and to increase the degree of capacity utilization, should be used to promote the generation of profits to firms and to wake up entrepreneurs' animal spirits. Short-term expansionary policies should be coupled with measures to improve competitiveness and avoid balance of payments problems. They also claim that alternatives to the liberal programme will fail unless a pro-growth strategy is adopted which includes both short- and long-term policies. They thus propose that long-term policies must complete the package, signaling: a sustained increases of effective demand in the future; and b investment priorities to ensure that capacities will be created in strategic sectors and branches of the economy.

Long-term effects of climate change on Europe's water resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Domnisoru, A.

2006-01-01

Climate variations from last century show a global warming trend. Evidence from the past reveals that the anthropogenic greenhouse effect caused changes in climate parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) at the European scale as well. On long-term this might have essential impact on

Climate Policy in Terms of Open Energy Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granic, G.

2015-01-01

This paper describes the objectives and approach to the climate policy impact analysis on the development of energy sector. The analysis included the goals for CO2 emission reduction until 2050, by sectors and in total, with reference to last 5-10 years. The analysis of energy market development in terms of CO2 emission reduction is given, and also the analysis of the final consumption for Croatia in period until 2050. The analysis of measures, of the manner in which the measures are carried out and of the potential of measures for CO2 emission reduction is presented. Estimations of economic and financial indicators for measurement implementation are given. Technological, energy, economic, organizational and institutional limitations are specifically analysed as part of objectives realisation of CO2 emission reduction, as is the risk of measurement implementation. The important parts of CO2 emission reduction policy are: technological development, expectations and possible risks of not achieving the set objectives. The important assumption of CO2 emission reduction objective realisation is institutional organisation of creation of energy policy and measurement implementation, in which the important measure is the forming of Ministry of energy, environment protection and climate change. At the end, recommendations are given, based on the performed analysis. (author).

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

2009-01-01

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

Economic impacts of EU climate policy until 2020; EU:n ilmastopolitiikan talousvaikutukset vuoteen 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rantala, O. E-mail: olavi.rantala@etla.fi

2012-07-01

The study evaluates the impacts of EU climate policy on the emission allowance price, electricity prices, the competitiveness of industry and macroeconomic developments in the third EU emission trading period 2013-2020. The economic impacts of climate policy on Finland are compared to the impacts on the entire EU area. It turns out that due to its cold climate and heating energy demand, higher export intensity of the economy and higher energy intensity of the industry Finland pays a higher price for EU climate policy in terms of output and employment losses than the EU on average. The study examines the macroeconomic effects of climate policy also in the more distant future, assuming that climate policy is tightened further in the 2020s. Climate policy implemented by emission trading means that the long-term economic growth in the EU area depends essentially on emission-free electricity production, and no longer on other growth factors, such as the labour supply and productivity growth. (orig.)

Energy savings in drastic climate change policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isoard, Stephane; Wiesenthal, Tobias

2005-01-01

This paper reports a climate change policy scenario compatible with long-term sustainable objectives set at EU level (6th Environment Action Plan). By setting ambitious targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2030, this normative scenario relies on market-based instruments and flexible mechanisms. The integrated policy that is simulated (i.e. addressing energy, transport, agriculture and environmental impacts) constitutes a key outlook for the next 5-year report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). This scenario highlights what it would take to drastically curb EU GHG emissions and how much it might cost. The findings show that such a 'deep reduction' climate policy could work as a powerful catalyst for (1) substantial energy savings, and (2) promoting sustainable energy systems in the long term. The implications of this policy lever on the energy system are many-fold indeed, e.g. a substantial limitation of total energy demand or significant shifts towards energy and environment-friendly technologies on the supply side. Clear and transparent price signals, which are associated with market-based instruments, appear to be a key factor ensuring sufficient visibility for capital investment in energy efficient and environment-friendly options. Finally it is suggested that market-based policy options, which are prone to lead to win-win situations and are of particular interest from an integrated policy-making perspective, would also significantly benefit from an enhanced energy policy framework

Norms and the development of new knowledge as determinants of climate policy. Theoretical considerations and empirical evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schymura, Michael

2013-01-01

The evaluation of long-term effects of climate change in cost-benefit analysis has a long tradition in environmental economics. Since the publication of the ''Stern Review'' in 2006, the debate about the impacts of climate change on the economy and how to compare cost and benefits with each other was revived. The assessment of climate change mitigation policies mainly depends on three not mutually exclusive decisions: First, the discount rate chosen, since costs are incurred today and long-term benefits occur in the future. Second, the uncertainties related to the problem of climate change. This debate was spurred by the literature surrounding Martin Weitzman's ''dismal theorem'', stating that the unknown unknowns could be too large for cost-benefit analysis of long-term climate policy measures. And third, the treatment of technological change in economic models of climate policy. This dissertation contributes to all three mentioned aspects and consists of two interrelated parts. First, I discuss norms, economic welfare criteria, and catastrophic risks in the context of climate change. This first part is closely bound to a discussion of the Stern Review. The second part of the dissertation deals with technological change in its various dimensions and addresses several questions: How is technological change taken into consideration in large-scale environment-economy models? How do certain inputs substitute each other? And how does technology affect energy intensity, a key parameter for meeting targets set by climate policy? Alongside these questions, I also discuss how the production of knowledge takes place in an environmental and resource economics framework and how knowledge production patterns have changed during previous decades. While the first part is of theoretical nature, the second part is mainly empirical. Summing up, I suggest approaches towards long-term evaluation of climate policies and how some methodological drawbacks of the ''Stern Review'' could

What do recent advances in quantifying climate and carbon cycle uncertainties mean for climate policy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

House, Joanna I; Knorr, Wolfgang; Cornell, Sarah E; Prentice, I Colin; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter M; Harris, Glen R; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A

2008-01-01

Global policy targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions are being negotiated. The amount of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is controlled by carbon cycle processes in the ocean and on land. These processes are themselves affected by climate. The resulting 'climate-carbon cycle feedback' has recently been quantified, but the policy implications have not. Using a scheme to emulate the range of state-of-the-art model results for climate feedback strength, including the modelled range of climate sensitivity and other key uncertainties, we analyse recent global targets. The G8 target of a 50% cut in emissions by 2050 leaves CO 2 concentrations rising rapidly, approaching 1000 ppm by 2300. The Stern Review's proposed 25% cut in emissions by 2050, continuing to an 80% cut, does in fact approach stabilization of CO 2 concentration on a policy-relevant (century) timescale, with most models projecting concentrations between 500 and 600 ppm by 2100. However concentrations continue to rise gradually. Long-term stabilization at 550 ppm CO 2 requires cuts in emissions of 81 to 90% by 2300, and more beyond as a portion of the CO 2 emitted persists for centuries to millennia. Reductions of other greenhouse gases cannot compensate for the long-term effects of emitting CO 2 .

Incidence of climate on common frog breeding: Long-term and short-term changes

Science.gov (United States)

Neveu, André

2009-09-01

In Brittany (northwest France), the climate is showing a trend toward warming. This change is increasingly suspected to have a role in driving amphibian decline, but it is very difficult to determine at what level the climate affects the future of species. Recently, some studies have detected some direct effects on breeding phenology and indirect effects on energy allocation. The present study explores some of these effects on the common frog ( Rana temporaria) from 1984 to 2007. The results show two trends: a long-term change in breeding activities and a short-term influence due to the 2003 climatic anomaly. For the period of study, the start of egg-laying shows a precocity that was correlated with thermal conditions during the preceding 40 days as well as milder springs during the previous year. This degree of precocity is currently the highest found in Europe (+26.6 days). As a result of the 2003 heat wave, the clutch mean fecundity in 2004 was smaller than for other years, the fecundity rates were reduced and abortions were numerous (unlike other years). Moreover, young females were the smallest observed in recent years and some females seemed to exhibit a trade-off between fecundity and growth. Before or after egg-laying, female body condition and mean weight of mature ovules were both lower. The year 2005 appears as a transition period before the recovery in 2006-2007. The results show that climate warming endangers the vital rates of the common frog, while the 2003 climatic events seem more detrimental than the long-term warming trend.

How will climate change policy affect upstream oil and gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hyndman, R.

2003-01-01

This presentation outlined the status of climate change policies in Canada and Alberta for large industry with particular reference to the effect that the policies may have on upstream oil and gas. Global climate change and energy use was outlined along with what actions that should be taken to secure energy supplies and stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An economic model projection of global carbon dioxide emissions without the Kyoto agreement was presented. Global action on climate change will likely include greater efforts in energy efficiency to slow the growth in demand for energy. However, demand for oil and gas is still likely to increase in the next few decades due to a growing population worldwide. The author emphasized that developing countries should not forgo economic growth to avoid higher energy use. It was argued that Canadian climate change policies are out of line with the global climate change effort because they focus on short-term reductions rather than developing technologies. The policies also divert investment to competing suppliers that do not impose GHG costs, with no global GHG benefit. The author described why Alberta climate change policy rejects the Kyoto target. Natural Resource Canada's approach to large industrial emitters was also discussed along with a proposed policy framework by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) for long term certainty. 2 tabs., 12 figs

To support growth, to limit emissions: is China a model in terms of climate policy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voita, Thibault

2012-05-01

The objective of this paper is to discuss how China has been able to adapt its economic policy to the challenges of climate change without forgetting its final objective of economic growth for the country. The author first describes some characteristics of the Chinese decision political system in the field of industrial and energy policy towards a low carbon economy: articulation between central power and local authorities, and complexity of decision processes at the central level. The author then shows how this system has changed to integrate policies of struggle against climate change, used them as an opportunity towards a low carbon economy, and put them at the service of the national industrial policy. Then, based on several case studies of actual projects (electric vehicles, gas liquefaction, local energy policies), the author proposes an assessment of the system efficiency, and tries to see whether one can talk of a Chinese political model regarding the policy of struggle against climate change. He notably discusses the efficiency of these policies in terms of relationship between industrial independence and climate policy

Pension system in Romania. Long term imbalances and inconsistent policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ph. D. Associate Professor Razvan Papuc

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Public policies on retirement, both in Romania and in other EU countries, have been and still are conditioned by numerous short-term budgetary constaints and by long term major sustainability problems. Alongside objective, demographic developments known in all European countries , support systems for the elderly are facing numerous constraints, both due to government policies marked by fiscal indiscipline and lack of consistency of decisions and, hence, credibility phenomena caused by the phenomenon "the captive politician of a redistributive policy model". Modeling support institutions for pensioners by political actors was most of the times the expression of elections marked by Weberian instrumental rationality and not by wertrationalitat, using the axiom- guide for the behaviour of decision markers to "meet social interests in order to come to power" and not by the concern for a more long term efficient trans-redistributive approach. This paper aims to pursue the most important imbalances that chartacterize the public pension system in Romania, expression of decisions determined by aggregating in group individual preferences and noy by both rational and ethical analysis without redistribution centres.

Nuclear power and post-2012 energy and climate change policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weisser, Daniel; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2008-01-01

At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that - given the right framework conditions - some architectures, like 'cap and trade' regimes or 'policies and measures' can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility. For example, the provision of long-term commitment periods has the potential to enable better investments in existing low-carbon technologies but stifle the policy flexibility that political decision makers are often keen to retain so that they can respond more quickly to new scientific evidence or advances in clean technology development

Long term warranty and after sales service concept, policies and cost models

CERN Document Server

Rahman, Anisur

2015-01-01

This volume presents concepts, policies and cost models for various long-term warranty and maintenance contracts. It offers several numerical examples for estimating costs to both the manufacturer and consumer. Long-term warranties and maintenance contracts are becoming increasingly popular, as these types of aftersales services provide assurance to consumers that they can enjoy long, reliable service, and protect them from defects and the potentially high costs of repairs. Studying long-term warranty and service contracts is important to manufacturers and consumers alike, as offering long-term warranty and maintenance contracts produce additional costs for manufacturers / service providers over the product’s service life. These costs must be factored into the price, or the manufacturer / dealer will incur losses instead of making a profit. On the other hand, the buyer / consumer needs to weigh the cost of maintaining it over its service life and to decide whether or not these policies are worth purchasing....

Assessing long-term effects of demand response policies in wholesale electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cepeda, Mauricio; Saguan, Marcelo

2014-05-01

This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term issues in electricity markets in the presence of demand response development. Different policies have been implemented around the world aiming to develop demand response potential. Externalities, in particular the CO_2 externality, have been one of the key elements in the debate on the effectiveness of different policies regarding demand response development. Policy makers have several options to deal with this externality. The most direct one is to correct the externality by setting a CO_2 price at a level that corresponds to the cost to society of the corresponding CO_2 emissions. One alternative solution could be to subsidize carbon-free technologies as demand response. In this paper we examine potential long-term impacts of these two policies. We rely on a long-term market simulation model that characterizes expansion decisions in a competitive regime. We test for each policy two different scenarios regarding the possibility of internalization of the CO_2 externality. The results show that differences in development policies affect both investments and social costs in the wholesale electricity market and confirm previous findings that a market-driven development of demand response with the internalization of the CO_2 externality is the most efficient approach. (authors)

Long-term agricultural experiments inform the development of climate-smart agricultural practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristina Wolf

2017-09-01

Full Text Available California's Mediterranean agro-ecosystems are a major source of U.S. fruits and vegetables, and vulnerable to future extremes of precipitation and temperature brought on by climate change, including increased drought and flooding, and more intense and longer heat waves. To develop resilience to these threats, strategies are necessary for climate-smart management of soil and water. Long-term, large-scale, replicated ecological experiments provide unique testbeds for studying such questions. At the UC Davis Russell Ranch Sustainable Agriculture Facility (RRSAF, the 100-year Century Experiment, initiated in 1992, is investigating the effects of multiple farming practices in a farm-scale replicated study of 10 row crop cropping systems. It includes different fertility management systems: organic, conventional and hybrid (conventional plus winter cover crop systems; different crops: wheat, tomatoes, corn, alfalfa, cover crops and grasslands; and different irrigation systems: rainfed, flood irrigated and drip irrigated. We briefly describe and report on a selection of long-term experiments conducted at RRSAF investigating soil management and irrigation practices, which are an important focus for developing climate-smart strategies in Mediterranean systems. For example, long-term monitoring of soil carbon content revealed that most crop systems have experienced a small increase in soil carbon since 1993, and increases in organically managed plots were substantially higher. As RRSAF continues to build upon this rich dataset from one of a very few long-term row crop experiments in Mediterranean ecosystems, it provides a testbed for identifying climate-smart solutions for these agronomically important ecosystems.

Long-term corporate climate change targets: What could they deliver?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gouldson, Andy; Sullivan, Rory

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Increasingly, companies are setting long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. ► Many of these corporate targets appear to exceed those being set by national governments. ► Achieving these corporate targets relies on energy prices remaining high. ► Weaknesses in corporate reporting make it difficult to tell whether targets are being achieved. -- Abstract: Driven by the rising cost of energy, stakeholder pressure and the expectation that governments will continue to implement policy measures directed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, an increasing number of companies have set targets to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These commitments raise two important questions. The first is whether they can be considered – individually or collectively – to be an appropriate response to the threat presented by climate change. The second is whether they are dependable; that is, can policy makers and other stakeholders can rely on companies to deliver on the commitments that they have made? This article examines these two questions using the case of the UK supermarket sector to illustrate and explain the issues at stake and, more generally, to examine the contribution that these types of voluntary commitments can make to wider public policy goals on climate change. The reasons for focusing on the UK supermarket sector are that the companies in this sector are some of the largest retailers in the world, they are significant emitters (their direct emissions account for 0.9% of UK carbon emissions, and some indications suggest that their indirect emissions account for ten times as much), and they are less heavily regulated that other sectors with comparable carbon footprints. The article concludes that the targets being set voluntarily by companies in this sector align with, or may even exceed, the climate change policy goals being set by national governments. Moreover, the article concludes that the companies targets are plausible and

Impact of Climate Change. Policy Uncertainty in Power Investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blyth, W.; Yang, M.

2006-10-01

Climate change policies are being introduced or actively considered in all IEA member countries, changing the investment conditions and technology choices in the energy sector. Many of these policies are at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is currently high. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impacts of climate change policy on power investment. We use Real Options Analysis approach in the study and model uncertain carbon price and fuel price with stochastic variables. The analysis compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with fuel price uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies. This paper considers views on the importance of climate policy risk, how it is managed, and how it might affect investment behaviour. The implications for policymakers are analyzed, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy design decisions. We found that in many cases, the dominant risks facing base-load generation investment decisions will be market risks associated with electricity and fuel prices. However, under certain conditions and for some technologies, climate policy uncertainty can be an important risk factor, creating an incentive to delay investment and raising investment thresholds. This paper concludes that government climate change policies to promote investment in low-carbon technologies should aim to overcome this incentive to delay by sending long-term investment signals backed up by strengthened international policy action to enhance domestic policy credibility

Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

Post-Kyoto policy implications on the energy system: A TIAM-FR long-term planning exercise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Selosse, Sandrine; Assoumou, Edi; Maizi, Nadia; Mazauric, Vincent

2010-09-15

The aim of this study is to discuss the long term analysis of post-Kyoto commitments, with the modelling tool ETSAP-TIAM-FR. Through the specification of CO2 mitigation targets scenarios covering the period 2000-2050, this analysis focuses on the effects of these carbon constraints on several indicators such as global and regional CO2 emissions, the cost of the climate policy, carbon marginal costs, the primary energy consumption and the energy mix. This paper compares global efforts of CO2 mitigation with the cost of carbon and finally discusses the development of CCS technologies.

Long-term environmental drivers of DOC fluxes: Linkages between management, hydrology and climate in a subtropical coastal estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Regier, Peter; Briceño, Henry; Jaffé, Rudolf

2016-12-01

Urban and agricultural development of the South Florida peninsula has disrupted historic freshwater flow in the Everglades, a hydrologically connected ecosystem stretching from central Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Current system-scale restoration efforts aim to restore natural hydrologic regimes to reestablish pre-drainage ecosystem functioning through increased water availability, quality and timing. Aquatic transport of carbon in this ecosystem, primarily as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling and food-web dynamics, and will be affected both by water management policies and climate change. To better understand DOC dynamics in South Florida estuaries and how hydrology, climate and water management may affect them, 14 years of monthly data collected in the Shark River estuary were used to examine DOC flux dynamics in a broader environmental context. Multivariate statistical methods were applied to long-term datasets for hydrology, water quality and climate to untangle the interconnected environmental drivers that control DOC export at monthly and annual scales. DOC fluxes were determined to be primarily controlled by hydrology but also by seasonality and long-term climate patterns and episodic weather events. A four-component model (salinity, rainfall, inflow, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) capable of predicting DOC fluxes (R2 = 0.84, p water management and salinity.

Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

2014-12-01

Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: Application to the late Pliocene and future

KAUST Repository

Lord, Natalie S.

2017-04-26

Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

KAUST Repository

Lord, Natalie S.

2017-11-16

Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

KAUST Repository

Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O& apos; Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

2017-01-01

Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: Application to the late Pliocene and future

KAUST Repository

Lord, Natalie S.; Crucifix, Michel; Lunt, Dan J.; Thorne, Mike C.; Bounceur, Nabila; Dowsett, Harry; O& apos; Brien, Charlotte L.; Ridgwell, Andy

2017-01-01

Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs), long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term

The long-term climate change task of the Hanford permanent isolation barrier development program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program is developing an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed that will function in what is currently a semiarid environment (mean annual precipitation and temperature of 16 cm and 11.8 degrees C, respectively) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task has specific goals of (1) obtaining defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future; (2) developing several test-case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, including both greenhouse warming and cycling into another ice age; and (3) using the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance. Results from the Carp Lake Pollen Coring Project indicate that for the last approximately 100,000 yr the Columbia River Basin's long-term range of mean annual precipitation ranged from 25%--50% below to 28% above modern levels, while temperature has ranged from 7 degrees C--10 degrees C below to 2 degrees C above modern levels. This long record provides confidence that such a range should bracket potential natural climate change even if the earth cycles back into another Ice Age in the next few millennia

Efficient and Equitable Climate Change Policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Socrates Kypreos

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This report describes the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-MACRO, which is a Ramsey-type macroeconomic growth model linked with a technology-rich engineering model of the energy-system and with a stylized sub-model of climate change. TIAM-MACRO contributes to coherent and consistent policy analyses at both the world and regional level and correlates demand for energy services to macro-economic developments across regions and time until the end of the 21st century. With the help of this model, two contrasting scenarios are defined related to the reference development (BASE case and the 2 °C (2DS case that follow long-term policies on climatic change mitigation in the spirit of the Paris agreement. Finally, we define ex-post market and non-market damages together with the damages related to Local Atmospheric Pollutants (LAP. The stringency of the 2DS case requires the complete restructuring of the energy and transport systems to be relying on carbon-free technologies and fuels together with technologies of negative emissions, at high costs. The study concludes that carbon policies not only consist of an insurance against the risk of climate change but also improve the ambient air quality, as they have secondary benefits that compensate for part of the cost of carbon control. However, the stringency of the 2DS case is so demanding that the cost of climate policies is above benefits.

Spent Fuel Long Term Interim Storage: The Spanish Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernandez-Lopez, Javier

2014-01-01

ENRESA is the Spanish organization responsible for long-term management of all categories of radioactive waste and nuclear spent fuel and for decommissioning nuclear installations. It is also in charge of the management of the funds collected from waste producers and electricity consumers. The national policy about radioactive waste management is established at the General Radioactive Waste Plan by the Government upon proposal of the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism. Now the Plan in force is the Sixth Plan approved in 2006. The policy on spent nuclear fuel, after description of the current available options, is set up as a long term interim storage at a Centralized Temporary Storage facility (CTS, or ATC in Spanish acronym) followed by geologic disposal, pending technological development on other options being eligible in the future. After a site selection process launched in 2009, the site for the ATC has been chosen at the end of 2011. The first steps for the implementation of the facility are described in the present paper. (authors)

Local climate policy in practice. Use of the playing field, impact of trends and the integration of climate care in municipal policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menkveld, M.; Burger, H.; Kaal, M.B.T.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

2001-10-01

forces local governments to provide more explanation. The risk exists that more attention will be paid to the short-term quality of life issues instead of the long-term climate problems. In order to reinforce contributions from local governments to climate policy, a systematic integrative approach is needed. The ideal model focuses on formulating a so-called climate care system. Similar to quality and environment care systems, a systematic introduction of a (climate) interest in a broad field of activities and decisions are involved. We distinguish some necessary basic steps and elements. 138 refs

Energy and climate policy in China's twelfth five-year plan: A paradigm shift

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jun; Wang Xin

2012-01-01

The twelfth five-year plan (FYP) endorsed by the People's National Congress in March 2011 plays a crucial role in shaping China's development trajectory over the next decades , and especially for the fulfillment of the 40–45 carbon intensity reduction target by 2020. The plan will condition both the medium and long term perspectives of economic restructuring, rebalance between the inclusive economic growth and environmental objectives, which are compounded by multiple constraints faced by China such as aging population, natural resources depletion, energy supply security and environmental deterioration. This article investigates the major energy and climate targets and actions specified in the 12th FYP to gain insights into the nature and magnitude of challenges and difficulties with regard to the medium and long run economic and environmental policies. It points out that China should articulate sectoral policies with the global climate mitigation targets to avoid long term carbon lock-in. Based on an in-depth analysis of the objectives in the plan, it is argued that the implementation should include mainstreaming developments of appropriate instruments to support cost-effective energy efficiency improvements and carbon intensity reduction in the next five years. - Highlights: ► We investigate the major energy and climate targets and actions specified in the Chinese 12th FYP. ► It points out FYP's implications for energy policy and global climate stabilisation. ► Challenges and difficulties with regard to the medium and long run climate strategies. ► Shift from investment and export-led to consumption led sustainable and inclusive growth model.

White Paper No 54 (2000-2001). Norwegian Climate Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

This White Paper from the Norwegian Government discusses the climate problem as a global challenge, Norway's strategy for meeting the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, the national climate policies of other countries, Norwegian national climate policy in the short term, and Norwegian national climate policy with the Kyoto agreement in force

The role of social norms on preferences towards climate change policies: A meta-analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alló, Maria; Loureiro, Maria L.

2014-01-01

The present study provides a review of existing assessments of preferences for climate change mitigation and adaptation policies through a worldwide meta-analysis. In this study, we analyze the impact of social values and norms on preferences towards climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. In a sample of 58 international studies, we found that mitigation actions were preferred over adaptation actions, and that preferences towards climate change policies are affected by attitudes towards time and social norms. In particular, societies with a long-term orientation display greater support towards climate change policies. These results therefore reveal the role of social factors as being crucial in order to understand the acceptability of climate change policies at a worldwide level. - highlights: • Effective policy design is required in order to curb climate change. • Using a meta-analysis, we find that mitigation actions are preferred over adaptation actions. • Economic conditions play a crucial role for supporting efforts to combat climate change. • Cultural and social dimensions are relevant for the acceptability of climate policies. • Understanding social norms and cultural variables may help with the climate change debate

Climate Change. India's Perceptions, Positions, Policies and Possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parikh, J.K.; Parikh, K. [Indira Ghandi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai (India)

2002-06-01

In January 2001, the OECD held an expert seminar as part of a pilot project to investigate interactions between the long term agenda for climate change and sustainable development strategies. Experts from both OECD and developing countries attended. Participants identified issues and approaches, based on their regional perspectives, relevant to an evolving, equitable regime for addressing climate change, given various national circumstances, political interests, institutions and capacities to achieve sustainable development objectives. They stressed the importance of both climate mitigation and adaptation policy within a sustainable development framework. Discussions and presentations centred around two broad themes: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development objectives and long-term strategies to limit climate change; and How to build analytical and implementation capacity in developing countries to maximise synergies at local, regional and global levels of decision-making. To support seminar discussions, the OECD commissioned several papers (including this one) from non- OECD country experts; authors were asked to comment on key interactions between climate change and sustainable development from their own regional or national perspectives. This paper is being released as an informal working paper in the hope that it will continue to stimulate interest and discussions on these topics in other fora. The paper presents Indian perceptions on the problem of climate change and sustainable development; the kind of negotiating positions that follow from these perceptions; the policies India has undertaken so far and finally India's possibilities for action that can help contain the threat of climate change.

Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios

Long-term sustainability of the landscape in new climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Kubeckova, D.; Krocova, S.

2017-10-01

The long-term sustainability of the landscape and its natural environment must be the decisive task of the public administration and, in the wider concept, of every citizen. In new climatic conditions, this need has intensified. The following article suggests in a basic scope whether the above-mentioned task can be accomplished, and what means of solution should be used.

Energy in 2010 - 2020. Long term challenges; Energie 2010-2020. Les defis du long terme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dessus, Benjamin [ed.] [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France)

2000-02-02

This report presents the results of a workshop intending to anticipate the long term challenges, to guide better the short term power options, to understand the available political, economical and technical assumptions for the prospective world situation, to give some strategic hints on the necessary transition. Indeed, the difficult issue which the workshop tried to tackle was how should we prepare to reveal the energetic challenge of the development of the eight to ten billion inhabitants of our Planet in the next century without jeopardizing its existence. The energetic problems, a hardcore of the international preoccupation of both growth and environment, as it was recently evidenced by the climatic conference in Kyoto, have ever been the object of a particular attention on the part of General Commissariat of Plan. Thus, the commission 'Energy in 2010 - 2020' has been instituted in April 1996 in order to update the works done in 1990 - 1991 by the commission 'Energy 2010'. Soon it occurred to this new commission the task of illuminating its works by a long term (2050 - 2100) world prospective analysis of the challenges and problems linked to energy, growth and environment. In conclusion, this document tried to find answers to questions like: - which are the risks the energy consumption augmentation entail? - can we control them by appropriate urbanism and transport policies or technological innovation?. Four options for immediate action are suggested: - the energy efficiency should become a priority objective of policies; -coping with the long term challenges requires acting at present; - building the transition between governmental leadership and market; - taking profit of all the possible synergies between short and long term planning.

Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-06-21

Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

One goal, several means? - Combinations of policy instruments in climate policy; Ett maal flera medel? - Styrmedelskombinationer i klimatpolitiken

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soederholm, Patrik

2012-04-15

The purpose of this report is, based on previous theoretical and empirical research, to analyze the conditions under which a combination of policy instruments can improve the effectiveness of climate policy and which the most important general lessons are, for the design of various policy instruments and combinations thereof. The focus of the report is based primarily on the achievement of long-term climate goals, especially an adaptation to radically lower emissions levels by 2050. This entails that we pay special attention to how policies can be designed to promote technological development on climate change, and how the relationship between an effective, legitimate and politically viable climate policy can be designed (including the need for so-called second-best solutions). The analysis assumes that the instruments are introduced to promote economic efficiency. An economically efficient climate policy means: A policy that ensures that a given reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases can be done at the lowest possible economic cost (known as cost-effectiveness) and that the reduction is driven to the point where the cost of further reduction is as high as the value of the marginal damage. A central task of an effective policy is to identify situations which means that economically efficient measures will not be implemented spontaneously by the market players. In a market economy the outcomes is determined of the millions of decisions by individual actors (households and companies) do in everyday life, and the central question is therefore whether these actors face incentives to ensure efficient choices. If not, it may be the result of a so-called market failure and the role of politics will be to correct for this failure. The analysis is based on a number of important limitations. The report consists of a literature synthesis. We don't make any assessment of the empirical importance of different motifs that may be the basis for the introduction of

European Climate Change Policy Beyond 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ulreich, S.

2009-01-01

Europe sees itself on the forefront to combat climate change. Consequently, the European Union has adopted in 2003 a Directive on Emissions Trading and since then, focuses more and more on effective methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there is little knowledge about the further development of Climate Change Policy in Europe after 2012. The EU has already started a review process to define the new legislation starting in 2013. Furthermore, negotiations take place to develop a successor of the Kyoto protocol. The European energy sector can deliver valuable input to the discussion about the coming climate goals and how to achieve them, by addressing the importance of new climate-friendly technologies. Furthermore, the impact of climate change goals on the current investment decisions in the energy sector has to be stressed. Europe will certainly not solve the climate problem on its own, but can help to deliver abatement technologies and to prove, that climate change can be reconciled with economic growth - provided a long-term framework is established that is in line with other goals like security of supply and affordable energy.(author).

Greenhouse gas emissions trading and complementary policies. Developing a smart mix for ambitious climate policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matthes, Felix C.

2010-06-15

. Closer examination of the practical implementation of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) shows very clearly that substantial differences to an ideal type of emissions trading scheme have to be taken into account, which can or should only be eliminated in the longer term or, for practical reasons, not at all. Further, analysis of the market development of the EU ETS up to now demonstrates that a strategic, robustly developed climate policy which meets the ambitiousness described also has to factor in the possibility that an emissions trading scheme cannot produce any long-term scarcity signals for different reasons (e.g. continual opportunities for revision in democratic systems, operational realities) and can thus always only serve the - essential - purpose of clearing emission reduction options close to the market which are available in the short to medium term.

The Impact of Long-Term Climate Change on Nitrogen Runoff at the Watershed Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Dorley, J.; Duffy, C.; Arenas Amado, A.

2017-12-01

The impact of agricultural runoff is a major concern for water quality of mid-western streams. This concern is largely due to excessive use of agricultural fertilizer, a major source of nutrients in many Midwestern watersheds. In order to improve water quality in these watersheds, understanding the long-term trends in nutrient concentration and discharge is an important water quality problem. This study attempts to analyze the role of long-term temperature and precipitation on nitrate runoff in an agriculturally dominated watershed in Iowa. The approach attempts to establish the concentration-discharge (C-Q) signature for the watershed using time series analysis, frequency analysis and model simulation. The climate data is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), model GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory Coupled Model 3). The historical water quality data was made available by the IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at the University of Iowa for the clear creek watershed (CCW). The CCW is located in east-central Iowa. The CCW is representative of many Midwestern watersheds with humid-continental climate with predominantly agricultural land use. The study shows how long-term climate changes in temperature and precipitation affects the C-Q dynamics and how a relatively simple approach to data analysis and model projections can be applied to best management practices at the site.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

2014-03-01

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

Climate change and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

2000-08-01

The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

Mamizu climate policy: an evaluation of Japanese carbon emissions reduction targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pielke, Roger A Jr

2009-01-01

This letter evaluates Japan's so-called 'Mamizu' climate policies proposed in mid-2009 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the Japanese economy for short-term and long-term targets. The letter uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future Japanese population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization consistent with the targets and various rates of economic growth). Both approaches indicate that the Japanese economy would have to achieve rates of decarbonization of 2.6% to meet a 2020 target of reducing emissions by 15% below 2005 levels, and 5.0% to meet a 2050 target of an 80% reduction below 2005 levels. A target of 25% below 1990 emissions proposed by the opposition party (which subsequently formed a government following elections in August 2009) implies a rate of decarbonization of 4.6% annually to 2020. The letter argues that international criticism of Japanese Mamizu climate policy proposals as being too weak was unfounded, and if anything, the proposals may have been too ambitious. In either case, climate policy would be strengthened through the support of a diversity of approaches to decarbonization.

[A Reflection on the Policy of Transcultural Long-Term Care for the Indigenous Peoples in Taiwan].

Science.gov (United States)

Subeq, Yi-Maun; Hsu, Mutsu

2016-06-01

Giving high-profile attention to socio-cultural and traditional beliefs in the promotion of long-term care policies enjoys strong, consensus support in the field of transcultural nursing. To protect the rights of indigenous people in Taiwan, the Ministry of Health and Welfare incorporated the concept of cultural care into the Long-term Care Services Act, which was approved by the Legislature in May 2014. However, the policies, resource strategies, manpower allocations, and staff educations and trainings related to this act are still await implementation in indigenous areas. Beyond the concept of professional healthcare, which considers cultural sensitivity, suitability, and ability, cultural care gives greater priority to crossing cultural barriers, integrating with the lifestyle of clients, and addressing their concerns in order to improve the well-being of target populations. The present article reviews current long-term care policy to highlight the importance of considering the cultural needs of the indigenous peoples of Taiwan in order to enhance the efficiency and impact of long-term care programs. Furthermore, the findings strongly recommend that additional resources be provided in order to meet the long-term care needs of indigenous communities. Finally, cultural-specific, long-term care service strategies should be promulgated in order to upgrade well-being in order to ease and comfort the feelings of indigenous people.

Local variability in long-term care services: local autonomy, exogenous influences and policy spillovers.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, José-Luis; Forder, Julien

2015-03-01

In many countries, public responsibility over the funding and provision of long-term care services is held at the local level. In such systems, long-term care provision is often characterised by significant local variability. Using a panel dataset of local authorities over the period 2002-2012, the paper investigates the underlying causes of variation in gross social care expenditure for older people in England. The analysis distinguishes between factors outside the direct control of policy makers, local preferences and local policy spillovers. The results indicate that local demand and supply factors, and to a much lesser extent local political preferences and spatial policy spillovers, explain a large majority of the observed variation in expenditure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Policies for replacing long-term indwelling urinary catheters in adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Fergus P M; Alexander, Cameron Edwin; Sinha, Sanjay; Omar, Muhammad Imran

2016-07-26

Long-term indwelling catheters are used commonly in people with lower urinary tract problems in home, hospital and specialised health-care settings. There are many potential complications and adverse effects associated with long-term catheter use. The effect of health-care policies related to the replacement of long-term urinary catheters on patient outcomes is unclear. To determine the effectiveness of different policies for replacing long-term indwelling urinary catheters in adults. We searched the Cochrane Incontinence Specialised Trials Register, which contains trials identified from the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print, CINAHL, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO ICTRP and handsearching of journals and conference proceedings (searched 19 May 2016), and the reference lists of relevant articles. All randomised controlled trials investigating policies for replacing long-term indwelling urinary catheters in adults were included. At least two review authors independently performed data extraction and assessed risk of bias of all the included trials. Quality of evidence was assessed by adopting the GRADE approach. Any discrepancies were resolved by discussion between the review authors or an independent arbitrator. We contacted the authors of included trials to seek clarification where required. Three trials met the inclusion criteria, with a total of 107 participants in three different health-care settings: A USA veterans administration nursing home; a geriatric centre in Israel; and a community nursing service in Hong Kong. Data were available for three of the pre-stated comparisons. Priefer and colleagues evaluated different time intervals between catheter replacement (n = 17); Firestein and colleagues evaluated the use of antibiotic prophylaxis at the time of replacement (n = 70); and Cheung and colleagues compared two different types of cleaning solutions (n = 20).All the included trials were

Climate change policy position

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-11-01

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

Coping with climate variability and long-term climate trends for Nicaraguan maize-bean farmers (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.

Long-Term Phenological Shifts in Raptor Migration and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Jaffré, Mikaël; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Éric; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellén, Nils; Troost, Gerard; Dubois, Philippe J.; Leprêtre, Alain; Luczak, Christophe

2013-01-01

Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency. PMID:24223888

Long-term phenological shifts in raptor migration and climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikaël Jaffré

Full Text Available Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010 of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency.

Climate change science and the development of environment/energy policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernabo, J.C.

1994-01-01

For the past decade climate research in the US has focused on long-term-understanding of earth systems rather than addressing the more immediate information needs of decision makers, such as information on impacts and solutions. During the Bush Administration, the primary objective was to determine if there was a problem, with little emphasis on developing information on what to do about the issue. The Clinton Administration is trying to refocus research to assist more effectively in decision making. This reevaluation is part of the post-Cold War shift toward funding federal research based more explicitly on the relevancy to societal needs. The Joint Climate Project to Address Decision Makers' Uncertainties was sponsored by EPRI, DOE, DOI, EPA, USDA, and USFS to assess what information is most relevant for decision making and how research could address those needs. The results of this stakeholders' needs assessment are being used to help reorient the federal program. Decision makers' priorities include greater emphasis on impacts and responses. More work is required in the ecological and social sciences to provide information for policy making. Researchers periodically need to provide interim information and policy-relevant assessments while continuing to improve long-term scientific understanding

Elderly and long-term care trends and policy in Taiwan: Challenges and opportunities for health care professionals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsiu-Hung Wang

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to address the trends and policy of elderly and long-term care in Taiwan. In response to the increasing demand of an aging society, healthcare professionals play crucial roles in elderly and long-term care and quality assurance of services. This article focuses on the current situation of elderly health care, demands of long-term care, long-term care policy in Taiwan, draft of the Long-term Care Services Act, and draft of the Long-term Care Insurance Act. After the 10-year long-term care project was proposed by the Taiwan government, the supply of health care services and demand for long-term care have created many challenges and opportunities for innovative health professional development. Challenges consist of low old dependency ratio caused by low birth rate, lack of elderly and long-term care related manpower, services and education reform related to long-term care for the future society, and interprofessional collaboration and team work of long-term care. Opportunities include expanding the roles and the career pathways of healthcare professionals, promoting the concepts of active aging and good quality of life, and developing industrial cooperation related to long-term care services. Under these circumstances, healthcare professonals are actively involved in practice, education and research of long-term care services that ensure elderly and disabled people can live a healthier and better life.

Identification of relationships between climate indices and long-term precipitation in South Korea using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Taereem; Shin, Ju-Young; Kim, Sunghun; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2018-02-01

Climate indices characterize climate systems and may identify important indicators for long-term precipitation, which are driven by climate interactions in atmosphere-ocean circulation. In this study, we investigated the climate indices that are effective indicators of long-term precipitation in South Korea, and examined their relationships based on statistical methods. Monthly total precipitation was collected from a total of 60 meteorological stations, and they were decomposed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to identify the inherent oscillating patterns or cycles. Cross-correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection were employed to select the significant climate indices at each station. The climate indices that affect the monthly precipitation in South Korea were identified based on the selection frequencies of the selected indices at all stations. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten-month lags and AMO index with no lag were identified as indicators of monthly precipitation in South Korea. Moreover, they indicate meaningful physical information (e.g. periodic oscillations and long-term trend) inherent in the monthly precipitation. The NINO12 indices with four- and ten- month lags was a strong indicator representing periodic oscillations in monthly precipitation. In addition, the long-term trend of the monthly precipitation could be explained by the AMO index. A multiple linear regression model was constructed to investigate the influences of the identified climate indices on the prediction of monthly precipitation. Three identified climate indices successfully explained the monthly precipitation in the winter dry season. Compared to the monthly precipitation in coastal areas, the monthly precipitation in inland areas showed stronger correlation to the identified climate indices.

Effects of long-term price increases for oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voehringer, F.; Mueller, A.; Boehringer, C.

2007-03-01

This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the effects of higher oil prices in the long-term. Scenarios examined include those with high oil prices of 80 to 140 dollars per barrel and those with drastic shortages resulting from peak extraction in the years 2010 and 2020. Long-term economic balances form the basis of the report, short-term influences and psychological effects are not addressed. The possible dangers for the earth's climate caused by the substitution of oil by coal-based products are discussed, as well as the sequestration of carbon dioxide. Ethanol and the associated conflicts of land use are examined and the decreasing cost-effectiveness of co-generation power generation is looked at. Alternatives such as atomic power, hydropower, solar energy, geothermal energy, biogas and wind power are discussed. The effect of the changing energy scene on economic growth and welfare aspects in Switzerland are examined. The authors conclude that high oil prices have considerable impacts on the economy and are not a substitute for an internationally co-ordinated climate policy

Northern European long term climate archives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hohl, Veronica [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)

2005-01-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company is responsible for the management and disposal of Sweden's radioactive waste. It is intended to deposit the spent nuclear fuel in a deep geological repository. This repository shall keep the radiotoxic material separated from humans and the environment for extended periods, from decades to millennia and possibly to geological timescales. During this time perspective climate induced changes such as shore-level displacement and evolution of permafrost and ice sheets are expected to occur which may affect the repository. The possible occurrence, extent and duration of these long-term changes, are therefore of interest when considering the assessment of repository performance and safety. The main climate parameters determining both surface and subsurface conditions are temperature and precipitation. As a result of the last advance of the Weichselian ice sheet only few geological archives exist, which contain information on past climatic conditions in Sweden before c 16,000 years BP. The purpose of this literature review is to compile and evaluate available information from Scandinavian, Northern and Central European geological archives, which record climatic conditions during the Weichselian time period. The compilation provides paleotemperature data sets, which may be used to explore the possible evolution of periglacial permafrost in Sweden. This report is a synopsis of 22 publications detailing climatic and environmental changes during the Weichselian time period in Northwestern Europe based on quantified paleotemperature records. Some of the data is presented as temperature curves which were digitised specifically for this report. The time range covered by the different publications varies considerably. Only few authors dealt with the whole Weichselian period and the majority cover only a few thousand years. This however is not considered to influence the reliability of the archives. The reason for the

Northern European long term climate archives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hohl, Veronica

2005-01-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company is responsible for the management and disposal of Sweden's radioactive waste. It is intended to deposit the spent nuclear fuel in a deep geological repository. This repository shall keep the radiotoxic material separated from humans and the environment for extended periods, from decades to millennia and possibly to geological timescales. During this time perspective climate induced changes such as shore-level displacement and evolution of permafrost and ice sheets are expected to occur which may affect the repository. The possible occurrence, extent and duration of these long-term changes, are therefore of interest when considering the assessment of repository performance and safety. The main climate parameters determining both surface and subsurface conditions are temperature and precipitation. As a result of the last advance of the Weichselian ice sheet only few geological archives exist, which contain information on past climatic conditions in Sweden before c 16,000 years BP. The purpose of this literature review is to compile and evaluate available information from Scandinavian, Northern and Central European geological archives, which record climatic conditions during the Weichselian time period. The compilation provides paleotemperature data sets, which may be used to explore the possible evolution of periglacial permafrost in Sweden. This report is a synopsis of 22 publications detailing climatic and environmental changes during the Weichselian time period in Northwestern Europe based on quantified paleotemperature records. Some of the data is presented as temperature curves which were digitised specifically for this report. The time range covered by the different publications varies considerably. Only few authors dealt with the whole Weichselian period and the majority cover only a few thousand years. This however is not considered to influence the reliability of the archives. The reason for the varying

Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Rozenberg, J.

2017-12-01

This paper presents an analytical framework and decision-making tool tailored to Small Islands Developing States (SIDS), to help them address future climate change challenges. SIDS are a diverse group of countries but all characterized by insularity, geographic remoteness, small economy and population size. SIDS are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural disasters, with average annual losses between 1 and 10% of GDP depending on the country. Vulnerability in SIDS is worsened by poor development planning and the countries' limited ability to respond and manage the risks. Infrastructure is a large share of the fixed capital stock in SIDS, most infrastructure assets are highly critical due to the lack of redundancy in networks and they are often highly vulnerable to natural hazards. Remoteness means that when infrastructure assets are damaged, reconstruction costs are larger than anywhere else, which narrows fiscal space, which in turn leads to deferred maintenance problems and raises the vulnerability to future events. In this context, and with climate change worsening the challenges SIDS face at an uncertain pace and intensity, decision-makers and international donors have to answer difficult questions. Does it make sense to spend increasing amounts of money in infrastructure given the level of debts SIDS face and the economic losses resulting from the regular disruption of infrastructure assets? How should sectors be prioritized? Should long-term plans consider "migration with dignity" as a potential option, especially for low-lying atolls? To help answer these questions, methods for decision-making under deep uncertainty, which rely on large numbers of model runs to identify the vulnerabilities of strategies, are particularly appropriate. The small population size of SIDS and simplicity of their infrastructure networks allows building system models coupled with household surveys and testing a range of different policy options, including unconventional policies

Climate policy. The dirt, the country and the world. Part 1. Solo climate policy is damaging symbol politics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, P.

2008-01-01

This article assumes that the objective of climate policy is to limit climate change. The alternative goal of security of supply was not considered. Some measures can be defended in view of both objectives. This is for example the case with energy saving. It is evident that the climate problem becomes increasingly urgent. If the Netherlands or Europe choose individual climate policy, some 'leakage effects' are unavoidable. Such symbol politics harm the economy, whereas the climate does not benefit. On a national and European scale all means must be put to use to bring global collaboration closer at the shortest possible term. [mk] [nl

Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Janes, Victoria; Whitehead, Paul G; Dadson, Simon J; Holman, Ian P

2017-07-15

The combined indirect and direct impacts of land use change and climate change on river water quality were assessed. A land use allocation model was used to evaluate the response of the catchment land use to long-term climatic changes. Its results were used to drive a water quality model and assess the impact of climatic alterations on freshwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the likelihood of such response. The River Thames catchment (UK) was used as a case-study. If land use is considered as static parameter, according to the model results, climate change alone should reduce the average nitrate concentration, although just by a small amount, by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to reduced runoff (and lower export of nitrate from agricultural soils) and increased instream denitrification, and should increase the average phosphorus concentration by 12% by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to a reduction of the effluent dilution capacity of the river flow. However, the results of this study also show that these long-term climatic alterations are likely to lead to a reduction in the arable land in the Thames, replaced by improved grassland, due to a decrease in agriculture profitability in the UK. Taking into account the dynamic co-evolution of land use with climate, the average nitrate concentration is expected to be decreased by around 6% by the 2050s in both the upper and the lower Thames, following the model results, and the average phosphorus concentration increased by 13% in the upper Thames and 5% in the lower Thames. On the long term (2080s), nitrate is expected to decrease by 9% and 8% (upper and lower Thames respectively) and phosphorus not to change in the upper thames and increase by 5% in the lower Thames. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Pratt, V. R.

2011-12-01

On the premise that fast climate fluctuations up to and including the 11-year solar cycle play a negligible role in long-term climate forecasting, we remove these from the 160-year HADCRUT3 global land-sea temperature record and model the result as the sum of a log-raised-exponential (log(b+exp(t))) and two sine waves of respective periods 56 and 75 years coinciding in phase in 1925. The latter two can be understood equivalently as a 62-year-period "carrier" modulated with a 440-year period that peaked in 1925 and vanished in 1705. This model gives an excellent fit, explaining 98% of the variance (r^2) of long-term climate over the 160 years. We derive the first component as the composition of Arrhenius's 1896 logarithmic dependence of surface temperature on CO2 with Hofmann's 2009 raised-exponential dependence of CO2 on time, but interpret its fit to the data as the net anthropogenic contribution incorporating all greenhouse and aerosol emissions and relevant feedbacks, bearing in mind the rapid growth in both population and technology. The 56-year oscillation matches the largest component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while the 75-year one is near an oscillation often judged to be in the vicinity of 70 years. The expected 1705 cancellation is about two decades earlier than suggested by Gray et al's tree-ring proxy for the AMO during 1567-1990 [Gray GPL 31, L12205]. While there is no consensus on the origin of ocean oscillations, the oscillations in geomagnetic secular variation noted by Nagata and Rimitake in 1963 and Slaucitajs and Winch in 1965, of respective periods 77 years and 61 years, correspond strikingly with our 76-year oscillation and 62-year "carrier." This model has a number of benefits. Simplicity. It is easily explained to a lay audience in response to the frequently voiced concern that the temperature record is poorly correlated with the CO2 record alone. It shows that the transition from natural to anthropogenic influences on long-term

Reliable in the long run? Petroleum policy and long-term oil supplier reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toft, Peter; Duero, Arash

2011-01-01

Accelerating oil import dependence in energy consuming nations highlights the importance of having energy supplies at sufficient levels and at stable and reasonable prices. Consequently, it is crucial that oil exporters realize their full production potential. Current debates on energy security are often focused on short-term risks e.g. sudden disruptions due to wars, domestic instability, etc. However, when it comes to assessing oil supplier reliability it is equally important to assess their longer term ability and willingness to deliver oil to the global market. This study analyzes the effects of petroleum investment policies on crude oil production trends in 14 major oil producing countries (2000-2010) by focusing on the political-institutional frameworks that shape the investment conditions for the upstream oil sector. Our findings indicate that countries with less favorable oil sector frameworks systematically performed worse than countries with investor friendly and privatized sectors. The findings indicate that assessments based on remaining reserves and planned production capacities alone could inflate expectations about future oil supplies in a world where remaining crude reserves are located in countries with unfavorable investment frameworks. - Highlights: → We explore if policies favoring state-ownership in upstream oil undermine output expectations. → We compare petroleum policies of 14 major oil producers vis-a-vis production trends 2000-2010. → We find major differences between countries favorable to state-owned or private investors. → Substantial private investment seems needed for oil production to meet long-term demand growth.

Marginal Propensity to Consume in Hungary: The long-term versus Short-term Challenges to Policy Makers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keith Write

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This study uses Hungarian quarterly data from the International Monetary Fund to estimate a distributed lag model whose coefficients allow derivation of the short-run and long-run marginal propensities to consume.  MPCs are main factors determining the consumption, investment, government spending, and export and import multipliers of the economy.  Hungary's economy has stagnated and its policy makers are exploring new ways to manage its economy.  Our model reveals that the numerical value of Hungarian short-run marginal propensity to consume (MPC is 0.4081181655 and the long-run MPC is 0.9458619.  These results are consistent with the corresponding figures in emerging and advanced economies.  These derived MPCs suggest that Hungarian economic policy makers should use fiscal instruments to bring these macroeconomic variables back to their long-term trend effectively

On policies to regulate long-term risks from hazardous waste disposal sites under both intergenerational equity and intragenerational equity

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, Zhongbin

In recent years, it has been recognized that there is a need for a general philosophic policy to guide the regulation of societal activities that involve long-term and very long-term risks. Theses societal activities not only include the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes and global warming, but also include the disposal of non-radioactive carcinogens that never decay, such as arsenic, nickel, etc. In the past, attention has been focused on nuclear wastes. However, there has been international recognition that large quantities of non-radioactive wastes are being disposed of with little consideration of their long-term risks. The objectives of this dissertation are to present the significant long-term risks posed by non-radioactive carcinogens through case studies; develop the conceptual decision framework for setting the long-term risk policy; and illustrate that certain factors, such as discount rate, can significantly influence the results of long-term risk analysis. Therefore, the proposed decision-making framework can be used to systematically study the important policy questions on long-term risk regulations, and then subsequently help the decision-maker to make informed decisions. Regulatory disparities between high-level radioactive wastes and non-radioactive wastes are summarized. Long-term risk is rarely a consideration in the regulation of disposal of non-radioactive hazardous chemicals; and when it is, the matter has been handled in a somewhat perfunctory manner. Case studies of long-term risks are conducted for five Superfund sites that are contaminated with one or more non-radioactive carcinogens. Under the same assumptions used for the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes, future subsistence farmers would be exposed to significant individual risks, in some cases with lifetime fatality risk equal to unity. The important policy questions on long-term risk regulation are identified, and the conceptual decision-making framework to regulate

Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

2017-06-01

Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Backcasting long-term climate data: evaluation of hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

Saghafian, Bahram; Aghbalaghi, Sara Ghasemi; Nasseri, Mohsen

2018-05-01

Most often than not, incomplete datasets or short-term recorded data in vast regions impedes reliable climate and water studies. Various methods, such as simple correlation with stations having long-term time series, are practiced to infill or extend the period of observation at stations with missing or short-term data. In the current paper and for the first time, the hypothesis on the feasibility of extending the downscaling concept to backcast local observation records using large-scale atmospheric predictors is examined. Backcasting is coined here to contrast forecasting/projection; the former is implied to reconstruct in the past, while the latter represents projection in the future. To assess our hypotheses, daily and monthly statistical downscaling models were employed to reconstruct past precipitation data and lengthen the data period. Urmia and Tabriz synoptic stations, located in northwestern Iran, constituted two case study stations. SDSM and data-mining downscaling model (DMDM) daily as well as the group method of data handling (GMDH) and model tree (Mp5) monthly downscaling models were trained with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. After training, reconstructed precipitation data of the past was validated against observed data. Then, the data was fully extended to the 1948 to 2009 period corresponding to available NCEP data period. The results showed that DMDM performed superior in generation of monthly average precipitation compared with the SDSM, Mp5, and GMDH models, although none of the models could preserve the monthly variance. This overall confirms practical value of the proposed approach in extension of the past historic data, particularly for long-term climatological and water budget studies.

Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

CERN Document Server

2012-01-01

This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

The regional climate model as a tool for long-term planning of Quebec water resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frigon, A.

2008-01-01

'Full text': In recent years, important progress has been made in downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model) projections to a resolution where hydrological studies become feasible. Climate change simulations performed with RCMs (Regional Climate Models) have reached a level of confidence that allows us to take advantage of this information in long-term planning of water resources. The RCMs' main advantage consist in their construction based on balanced land as well as atmosphere water and energy budgets, and on their inclusion of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere. Such models therefore generate sequences of weather events, providing long time series of hydro-climatic variables that are internally consistent, allowing the analysis of hydrologic regimes. At OURANOS, special attention is placed on the hydrological cycle, given its key role on socioeconomic activities. The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was developed as a potential tool to provide climate projections at the watershed scale. Various analyses performed over small basins in Quebec provide information on the level of confidence we have in the CRCM for use in hydrological studies. Even though this approach is not free of uncertainty, it was found useful by some water resource managers and hence this information should be considered. One of the keys to retain usefulness, despite the associated uncertainties, is to make use of more than a single regional climate projection. This approach will allow for the evaluation of the climate change signal and its associated level of confidence. Such a methodology is already applied by Hydro-Quebec in the long-term planning of its water resources for hydroelectric generation over the Quebec territory. (author)

Climate and economy. Climate Policy Dossier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gielen, A.M.; Koutstaal, P.R.; De Groot, H.L.F.; Tang, P.J.G.

2001-01-01

In this introductory article an overview is given of what can be expected in this dossier on climate policy in the Netherlands, focusing on the economic analysis of climate policy and climatic change. Attention will be paid to flexible mechanisms to reduce the costs of such policy and visions of interested parties. 1 ref

United States policy for mitigating global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergman, P.; Kane, R.; Kildow, J.

1998-01-01

The primary objective of this paper is to explain current US policy on global climate change. US Department of Energy (DOE) efforts to implement this policy are described. A secondary objective of this paper is to discuss from a US perspective the social and political efforts which must be initiated in order for ocean storage of CO 2 to be considered as a viable CO 2 mitigation option. The fact that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has not been successful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now recognized. Thus, US policy has shifted towards the development of binding medium-term emissions targets and long-term atmosphere concentration goals. The US believes these goals can be accomplished through the adoption of cost-effective joint implementation agreements and international emissions trading mechanisms. Studies are currently underway to assess specific targets and timetables for emissions reductions. Voluntary efforts on the part of US industry have proven to be extremely successful in reducing US CO 2 -emissions. The US electric utility industry has taken the lead in voluntarily lowering greenhouse gas emissions under the DOE Climate Challenge Program. Areas of research interest to DOE include the development of high efficiency advanced power generation cycles and CO 2 sequestration technology. The US currently spends $1.6 billion on understanding global climate phenomena and only $1.6 million on CO 2 mitigation research. A number of socio-political considerations must be looked at in assessing the feasibility of ocean storage of CO 2 . Developing public trust appears to be a major concern in establishing the acceptability of ocean storage. Uncertainties in the effects of CO 2 on marine life, potential safety hazards associated with pipelining, and ship transport of CO 2 are all issues which must be dealt with as soon as possible. Some hidden costs associated with ocean disposal is also discussed

Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This paper explores the relationships between climate policy and renewable energy policy instruments. It shows that, even where CO2 emissions are duly priced, specific incentives for supporting the early deployment of renewable energy technologies are justified by the steep learning curves of nascent technologies. This early investment reduces costs in the longer term and makes renewable energy affordable when it needs to be deployed on a very large scale to fully contribute to climate change mitigation and energy security. The paper also reveals other noteworthy interaction effects of climate policy and renewable policy instruments on the wholesale electricity prices in deregulated markets, which open new areas for future research.

The role of the US in the geopolitics of climate policy and stranded oil reserves

Science.gov (United States)

Jaffe, Amy Myers

2016-10-01

Computer-assisted technological innovation and breakthroughs in drilling are revolutionizing the energy landscape, creating greater uncertainty about the future trends for oil use. These new dynamics are prompting major oil producers to reconsider the commercial value of their assets, potentially changing the long-term outlook for oil prices. A shift in investment and production strategy by major oil-producing countries and large multinational companies to pre-empt the risk of stranded assets would have significant implications on energy markets. This Perspective surveys the competitive forces at play that are able to shift the dynamics of the global oil market and discusses their implications for US climate and energy policy. A declining long-term oil price might imply that energy and climate scientists and policymakers should revisit the road map of the optimum policies to promote the transition to lower carbon energy and to defend technology gains already achieved.

R and D Subsidies and Climate Policy. Is There a 'Free Lunch'?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popp, D.

2006-01-01

Because of the long-term nature of the climate problem, technological advances are often seen as an important component of any solution. However, when considering the potential for technology to help solve the climate problem, two market failures exist which lead to underinvestment in climate-friendly R and D: environmental externalities and the public goods nature of new knowledge. As a result, government subsidies to climate-friendly R and D projects are often proposed as part of a policy solution. Using the ENTICE model, I analyze the effectiveness of such subsidies, both with and without other climate policies, such as a carbon tax. While R and D subsidies do lead to significant increases in climate-friendly R and D, this R and D has little impact on the climate itself. Subsidies address the problem of knowledge as a public good, but they do not address the environmental externality, and thus offer no additional incentive to adopt new technologies. Moreover, high opportunity costs to R and D limit the potential role that subsidies can play. While R and D subsidies can improve efficiency, policies that directly affect the environmental externality have a much larger impact on both atmospheric temperature and economic welfare

Review of interactions between climate policy and energy safety in Europe (ELIPSE project) - Final report, December 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guivarch, Celine; Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Monjon, Stephanie

2013-01-01

The ELIPSE project is a better understanding of the consequences of ambitious energy policies for a secure energy in Europe. It is based on a choice of indicators for a secure energy which are related to availability and diversification, energy dependence and efficiency, energy cost for the society, and acceptability. Four RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios are selected. Their results are discussed, notably in terms of evolution of emissions, of evolution of the carbon tax, of carbon-tax variability, of GDP growth according to scenarios with or without climate policy, of primary energy supply with or without climate policy, of oil supply in Europe and oil prices with or without climate policy. The authors discuss the perspectives of evolution of energy security in Europe on the short, medium or long term, and the influence of different factors. They discuss the development and spreading of low carbon technologies (renewable energies, carbon capture and storage, electric vehicles)

The Impact of Policy Incentives on Long-Term Care Insurance and Medicaid Costs: Does Underwriting Matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Cornell, Portia Y; Grabowski, David C

2018-05-16

To test whether underwriting modifies the effect of state-based incentives on individuals' purchase of long-term care insurance. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), 1996-2012. We estimated difference-in-difference regression models with an interaction of state policy indicators with individuals' probabilities of being approved for long-term care insurance. We imputed probabilities of underwriting approval for respondents in the HRS using a model developed with underwriting decisions from two U.S. insurance firms. We measured the elasticity response to long-term care insurance price using changes in simulated after-tax price as an instrumental variable for premium price. Tax incentives and Partnership programs increased insurance purchase by 3.62 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, among those with the lowest risk (highest approval probability). Neither had any statistically significant effects among the highest risk individuals. We show that ignoring the effects of underwriting may lead to biased estimates of the potential state budget savings of long-term care insurance tax incentives. If the private market is to play a role in financing long-term care, policies need to address the underlying adverse selection problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Climate policies in a second-best world-A case study on India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Guivarch, Celine

2010-01-01

The aim of this article is to analyze the potential for synergies between climate policies and development in a case study on India focusing on the power sector sub-optimalities. To do so, we use IMACLIM-R, a dynamic recursive energy-economy model that represents a second best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustments constraints along a long-term growth path. The analysis suggests (i) global carbon pricing induces prohibitive macroeconomic costs for the Indian economy, even in the case of significant financial transfers associated with a global cap-and-trade system and a 'Contraction and Convergence in 2100' allocation scheme and (ii) the most cost efficient climate policies are not uniform carbon pricing only. The implementation of domestic policies suited to the national context, for instance targeting sub-optimalities in the power sector for India, allows reducing significantly the macroeconomic costs induced by international mitigation policies.

Long-term climate change assessment study plan for the Hanford Site permanent isolation Barrier Development Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, K.L.; Chatters, J.C.; Waugh, W.J.

1992-07-01

The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program (Barrier Development Program) was organized to develop the technology needed to provide an in-place disposal capability for the Hanford Site (Adams and Wing 1986; Wig and Gee 1990). The goal of the Barrier Development Program is to provide defensible evidence that final barrier design(s) will adequately control water infiltration; plant and animal intrusion; and wind and water erosion for a minimum of 1,000 yr and isolate wastes from the accessible environment and warm inadvertent human intruders using markers. This document describes the long-term climate change studies planned to support the Barrier Development Program. The plan outlines a multi-year and multi-discipline approach to assess long-term climate change issues and to help optimize the design of the permanent isolation barriers. A multi-disciplinary approach to climatic data acquisition will be responsible for obtaining needed information for concurrent barrier tasks and for developing a local climate forecast model. This model will couple past climate patterns with models of regional and global climate drivers to provide bounding conditions for barrier performance assessment analyses

Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

2007-01-01

This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

A retrospective investigation of energy efficiency standards: policies may have accelerated long term declines in appliance costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Buskirk, R D; Kantner, C L S; Gerke, B F; Chu, S

2014-01-01

We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declined faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs. (letter)

Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Molina-Perez, Edmundo

It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty

Nuclear Winter: Uncertainties Surround the Long-Term Effects of Nuclear War. Report to the Congress.

Science.gov (United States)

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

Nuclear winter, a term used to describe potential long-term climate and environmental effects of nuclear war, has been a subject of debate and controversy. This report examines and presents scientific and policy implications of nuclear winter. Contents include: (1) an executive summary (highlighting previous and current studies on the topic); (2)…

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koblinsky, C.J.; Gaspar, P.; Lagerloef, G.

1992-03-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

Science.gov (United States)

Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

2015-01-01

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

Reducing conflicts between climate policy and energy policy in the US: The important role of the states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, Thomas D.; Rose, Adam Z.

2006-01-01

The absence of US national action on global climate change policy has prompted initiatives by the US Congress, cities, states, and regions toward what is likely to become a long-term, collaborative effort to harmonize national energy and climate policies. This upward evolution in the face of a reluctant administration is historically consistent with the development of national legislation on other environmental and social issues in the US. At the heart of this movement is the need to resolve conflicts between high-intensity use of low-cost fossil energy supplies, and the dominating impact of carbon dioxide emissions on global climate change. US states are among the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world and play a critical role in supplying and transforming energy, as well as consuming it, for economic advantage. State governments are also likely to have to shoulder some of the cost of potentially extensive climate damages and bear the brunt of the cost of implementing future federal mandates. As a result, many are taking proactive stances on the development of climate mitigation policy to prepare for, accelerate, and/or guide national policy. As US states show leadership on addressing greenhouse gas emissions, they also play an important role in forging policies and measures that reduce economic conflict between energy and climate goals. A number have launched or completed greenhouse gas mitigation plans and other major policies in the past few years that address these conflicts through: (1) finding ways to reduce mitigation costs, including the use of incentive-based policy instruments; (2) promoting an open and democratic policy process that includes major stakeholders; (3) promoting equity across socioeconomic groups, regions, and generations; and (4) promoting interregional cooperation. The results are promising and suggest that the state arena for climate and energy policy is evolving quickly and constructively toward alternatives that reduce conflict

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

Science.gov (United States)

Gosz, J.

2001-12-01

The network dedicated to Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) in the United States has grown to 24 sites since it was formed in 1980. Long-term research and monitoring are performed on parameters thatare basic to all ecosystems and are required to understand patterns, processes, and relationship to change. Collectively, the sites in the LTER Network provide opportunities to contrast marine, coastal, and continental regions, the full range of climatic gradients existing in North America, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats in a range of ecosystem types. The combination of common core areas and long-term research and monitoring in many habitats have allowed unprecedented abilities to understand and compare complex temporal and spatial dynamics associated with issues like climate change, effects of pollution, biodiversity and landuse. For example, McMurdo Dry Valley in the Antarctic has demonstrated an increase in glacier mass since 1993 which coincides with a period of cooler than normal summers and more than average snowfall. In contrast, the Bonanza Creek and Toolik Lake sites in Alaska have recorded a warming period unprecedented in the past 200 years. Nitrogen deposition effects have been identified through long-term watershed studies on biogeochemical cycles, especially at Coweeta Hydrological Lab, Harvard Forest, and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. In aquatic systems, such as the Northern Temperate Lakes site, long-term data revealed time lags in effects of invaders and disturbance on lake communities. Biological recovery from an effect such as lake acidification was shown to lag behind chemical recovery. The long-term changes documented over 2 decades have been instrumental in influencing management practices in many of the LTER areas. In Puerto Rico, the Luquillo LTER demonstrated that dams obstruct migrations of fish and freshwater shrimp and water abstraction at low flows can completely obliterate downstream migration of juveniles and damage

Farmers' climate information needs for long-term adaptive decisions: A case study of almonds in CA

Science.gov (United States)

Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Pathak, T. B.; Kerr, A. C.; Doll, D.

2016-12-01

Despite advances in climate modeling and projections, several sources report that current tools and models are not widely used in the agriculture sector. Farmers, depending on their local context, require information on very specific climatic metrics such as start of rains during the planting season, number of low temperature days during the growing season, etc. However, such specific climatic information is either not available, and/or is not synthesized and communicated in a manner that is accessible to these decision-makers. This research aims to bridge the gap between climate information and decision-making needs, by providing an improved understanding of what farmers' consider as relevant climate information, and how these needs compare with current modeling capabilities. Almond is a perennial crop, so any changes in climate within its 25-30 year lifetime can have an adverse impact on crop yield. This makes almond growers vulnerable to medium and long-term climate change. Hence, providing appropriate information on future climate projections can help guide their decisions on crop types & varieties, as well as management practices that are better adapted to future climatic conditions. Semi-structured exploratory interviews have been conducted with almond growers, farm advisors, and other industry stakeholders, with three goals: (1) to understand how growers have used climate information in the past; (2) to identify key climatic variables that are relevant - including appropriate temporal scales and acceptable uncertainty levels; and (3) to understand communication methods that could improve the usability of climate information for farm-level decision-making. The interviews showcased a great diversity amongst growers in terms of how they used weather/climate information. Discussions also indicated that there was a potential for climate information to impact long-term decisions, but only if it is provided within the right context, terminology, and communication

Long-term bird study records Arctic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Zielinski, Sarah

Alaska's summer of 2005 was the second warmest on record there, with a record retreat of arctic pack ice. As Alaskan temperatures gradually increase, artic birds, such as the black guillemots of Cooper Island, near Barrow, Alaska, are experiencing drastic habitat changes. Though these small black and white birds—the subjects of a long-term study of climate change—fared better this year than they have in the recent past (due to local cool conditions), they are nonetheless struggling to adapt as their artic island summer home becomes subarctic.George Divokyan ornithologist at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, discovered the Cooper Island colony of guillemots in the early 1970s and has spent every summer since 1975 there studying these birds. He presented his latest research during a 3 November talk in Washington, D.C.

Experimental Forests and climate change: views of long-term employees on ecological change and the role of Experimental Forests and Ranges in understanding and adapting to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Laurie Yung; Mason Bradbury; Daniel R. Williams

2012-01-01

In this project, we examined the views of 21 long-term employees on climate change in 14 Rocky Mountain Research Station Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFRs). EFRs were described by employees as uniquely positioned to advance knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies due to the research integrity they provide for long-term studies, the ability to...

Informing climate policy given incommensurable benefits estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacoby, H.D.

2003-01-01

Underlying individual positions in debates over climate policy are assessments of benefit and costs - sometimes explicit, but more often implicit. What should we be willing to pay in the near term to reduce human emissions, given our understanding of the value of climate impacts avoided? What actions are justified now to ease adaptation to change that may come in any event? Such assessments may reflect the viewpoint of one nation, a group like Annex B, or the sum of all nations. They may incorporate uncertainty in different ways, and include different assumptions about future behavior as it influences the marginal benefit of action today. But, however done, any recommendation of a limit on human influence in the long term, or of the level of current effort, implies a weighing-up of the benefits expected, for comparison with the costs to be borne. An ability to communicate about perceived benefits thus is essential for authorities seeking a common response to the threat of human-caused change. They need some shared conception of what is at stake in the choice of one level of effort or another, and a common terminology for incorporating these considerations into international negotiations and domestic decision-making. The frustration of OECD governments with the current state of benefit information is revealed in the ambitious set of objectives set for this benefits project (OECD, 2002). They seek recommendations on how to develop a framework to assess not only the costs but the benefits of climate strategies, to improve the accounting for benefits to facilitate goal-setting for international policies. Besides this focus on global benefits, the OECD also looks for results that are relevant to national policy-making and to the development of adaptation strategies. Particular attention is asked to problems of accounting for non-market benefits, along with the intersection of climate policy with developing country issues. It is appropriate that the OECD seeks a

The Value of Long-Term Research at the Five USGS WEBB Catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Shanley, J. B.; Murphy, S. F.; Scholl, M. A.; Wickland, K.; Aulenbach, B. T.; Hunt, R.; Clow, D. W.

2017-12-01

Long-term catchment studies are sentinel sites for detecting, documenting, and understanding ecosystem processes and environmental change. The small catchment approach fosters in-depth site-based hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological process understanding, while a collective network of catchment observatories offers a broader context to synthesize understanding across a range of climates and geologies. The USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program is a network of five sites established in 1991 to assess the impact of climate and environmental change on hydrology and biogeochemistry. Like other networks, such as the USDA - Forest Service Experimental Forests and the Czech Geomon network, WEBB exploits gradients of climate, geology, and topography to understand controls on biogeochemical processes. We present examples from each site and some cross-site syntheses to demonstrate how WEBB has advanced catchment science and informed resource management and policy. WEBB has relied on strong academic partnerships, providing long-term continuity for shorter-term academic grants, which have offered rich graduate educational opportunities. Like other sites and networks, the long-term datasets and process understanding of WEBB provide context to detect and interpret change. Without this backdrop, we have no baseline to quantify effects of droughts, floods, and extreme events, and no test sites to validate process-based models. In an era of lean budgets for science funding, the long-term continuity of WEBB and other catchment networks is in jeopardy, as is the critical scientific value and societal benefits they embody.

Assessing the impact of information and framing on support for climate policy action

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatfield-Dodds, Steve

2007-01-01

Full text: A significant share of the public appears mislead by the way the economic impacts of emissions reductions are traditionally communicated. This misunderstanding is associated with reduced support for policy action, and risks long term climate impacts that would be avoided if results were communicated properly. Correct this basis appears likely to have a larger effect on attitudes than new research and information on the impacts of climate change. Government action to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - like other major policy changes -depends on public support, which in turn depends on perceptions of policy impacts. This paper reports research exploring the effect of three factors on support for policy action: the way that policy impacts are described; the magnitude of these impacts, and additional information on climate change impacts, provided internally through the surveys and externally through the release of An Inconvenient Truth and media coverage of the Stern Report (2006). The research used split sample phone and internet surveys (n = 4264) conducted in Australia and New Zealand in four waves from April to December 2006. The study gives rise to four major findings: Support for policy action is sensitive to the magnitude of expected economic impacts, with predicted support varying from 27% to 84% across the different levels of policy impact presented; Current approaches to communicating policy impacts are associated with public support for policy action being 8-10% lower than it would be if policy impacts were well communicated. This bias may be corrected by describing policy impacts in terms of changes relative to current levels - stating that incomes continue to rise - as well as describing impacts relative to the base case; The reduction in support associated with these biases is much larger than the increase in support associated with providing credible additional information on the impacts of climate change; Significantly more than

Convergence and conflict with the ‘National Interest’: Why Israel abandoned its climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michaels, Lucy; Tal, Alon

2015-01-01

This article describes how Israel abandoned its climate policy through the prism of the country's evolving energy profile, most importantly the 2009 discovery of huge natural gas reserves in Israel's Mediterranean exclusive zone. The article outlines five phases of Israeli political engagement with climate change from 1992 until 2013 when the National GHG Emissions Reduction Plan was defunded. Israel was motivated to develop its climate policy by international norms: OECD membership and the 2009 UN Summit in Copenhagen. Although the eventual Plan may not have significantly reduced Israel’s emissions, it contained immediate cost-effective, energy efficiency measures. Despite rhetorical support for renewable energy, in practice, most Israeli leaders consistently perceive ensuring supply of fossil fuels as the best means to achieve energy security. The gas finds thus effectively ended a potentially significant switch towards renewable energy production. The development of commercially competitive Israeli renewable energy technology may change this prevailing economic calculus alongside renewed international and domestic leadership and a resolution of the region's conflicts. Although Israel's political circumstances are idiosyncratic, the dynamics shaping its climate policy reflect wider trends such as competing economic priorities and failure to consider long term energy security. - Highlights: • In 2013 Israel defunded its climate policy despite cost and efficiency savings. • Initially climate policy converged with national interests: ‘climate bandwagoning’. • Deepwater natural gas finds in Israeli waters ended renewable energy ambitions. • Advocates failed to securitise ‘climate change’ which would have raised its profile. • Policy failure reflects both national idiosyncrasies and wider international trends.

Oil Trade and Climate Policy

OpenAIRE

Malik Curuk; Suphi Sen

2015-01-01

It has been argued that a depletable resource owner might optimally increase near-term supply in response to environmental policies promoting the development of alternative resources, which might render climate policy ineffective or even counterproductive. This paper empirically confirms this prediction using data on crude oil exports from OPEC to OECD countries between 2001-2010 in a gravity framework. It documents that oil exporters decrease prices and increase quantity of oil exports in re...

Comment 2 on workshop in economics - issues in benefit-cost analysis: Amplification channels and discounting long-term environmental damages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanson, D.A.

1992-01-01

Many environmental problems have long-term effects. Acid rain has long-term effects on soils, forests, and exposed materials. Global climate change has even longer-term effects. This difference in timing - between the near-term cost of environmental protection and the long-term environmental effects - makes it difficult to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of any program designed to abate environmental damages. The rate at which to discount long-term environmental damages becomes a key question in comparisons of benefits and costs. This comment points out an important facet of the discounting issue. The discount rate for calculating the present value of future environmental benefits may be much lower than the rate of return on investment. Cost-benefit analysis is a framework in which to evaluate policies and decisions. Because global climate change is a complex problem, extensions of cost-benefit theory can be expected to add additional insights, particularly in the following areas: distinguishing distributional effects among nations, over time, and among generations; determining the rate of discount that is appropriate for long-term environmental damages and separating risk aspects from the rate of discount; and assessing amplification effects when policies involve large expenditures relative to the economy or when affected sectors are significant sectors of the economy

What do we know about climate policy costs and how can we learn more?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dowlatabadi, H.

2003-01-01

How much a policy is expected to cost and who will be bearing the brunt of it play a significant role in the debates that shape regulations. We do not have a good track record of predicting costs, but a systematic review of past assessments has identified the factors that lead to errors. A wide range of expected costs of climate policy have been hotly debated, but all are likely to be wrong. This does not mean that we should continue a debate using ill informed analyses. On the contrary, we need early small experiments to shed light on key unknowns. Climate policy is a long-term challenge and an adaptive regulatory approach promises to inform policy targets and improve GHG controls by through sequential regulatory phases that promote: innovation, flexibility and diffusion of best technologies

Future climate change is predicted to shift long-term persistence zones in the cold-temperate kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

Science.gov (United States)

Assis, Jorge; Lucas, Ana Vaz; Bárbara, Ignacio; Serrão, Ester Álvares

2016-02-01

Global climate change is shifting species distributions worldwide. At rear edges (warmer, low latitude range margins), the consequences of small variations in environmental conditions can be magnified, producing large negative effects on species ranges. A major outcome of shifts in distributions that only recently received attention is the potential to reduce the levels of intra-specific diversity and consequently the global evolutionary and adaptive capacity of species to face novel disturbances. This is particularly important for low dispersal marine species, such as kelps, that generally retain high and unique genetic diversity at rear ranges resulting from long-term persistence, while ranges shifts during climatic glacial/interglacial cycles. Using ecological niche modelling, we (1) infer the major environmental forces shaping the distribution of a cold-temperate kelp, Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie, and we (2) predict the effect of past climate changes in shaping regions of long-term persistence (i.e., climatic refugia), where this species might hypothetically harbour higher genetic diversity given the absence of bottlenecks and local extinctions over the long term. We further (3) assessed the consequences of future climate for the fate of L. hyperborea using different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Results show NW Iberia, SW Ireland and W English Channel, Faroe Islands and S Iceland, as regions where L. hyperborea may have persisted during past climate extremes until present day. All predictions for the future showed expansions to northern territories coupled with the significant loss of suitable habitats at low latitude range margins, where long-term persistence was inferred (e.g., NW Iberia). This pattern was particularly evident in the most agressive scenario of climate change (RCP 8.5), likely driving major biodiversity loss, changes in ecosystem functioning and the impoverishment of the global gene pool of L

Long-term energy supply contracts in European competition policy: Fuzzy not crazy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauteclocque, Adrien de; Glachant, Jean-Michel

2009-01-01

Long-term supply contracts often have ambiguous effects on the competitive structure, investment and consumer welfare in the long term. In the new market context, these effects are likely to be worsened and thus even harder to assess. Since liberalization and especially since the release of the Energy Sector Inquiry in early 2007, the portfolio of long-term supply contracts of the former incumbents have become a priority for review by the European Commission and the national competition authorities. It is widely believed that European Competition authorities take a dogmatic view on these contracts and systemically emphasize the risk of foreclosure over their positive effects on investment and operation. This paper depicts the methodology that has emerged in the recent line of cases and argues that this interpretation is largely misguided. It shows that a multiple-step approach is used to reduce regulation costs and balance anti-competitive effects with potential efficiency gains. However, if an economic approach is now clearly implemented, competition policy is constrained by the procedural aspect of the legal process and the remedies imposed remain open for discussion.

Domestic policy frameworks for adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Part 1. Annex 1 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levina, E.; Adams, H.

2006-05-01

Adaptation to climate change needs to be integrated into policy development. This paper examines domestic policy frameworks in the water sector and analyses how adaptation could be incorporated into these frameworks. Global climate change will have a significant impact on water resources in all countries. Consequently, a key challenge that countries face is how to govern and manage their water resources in the conditions of changing climate. What should be done, when and by whom, is a function of the rate of climate change, but also of the existing water policy frameworks of each country. This study examines current water policy frameworks in four countries (Canada, Finland, United Kingdom and United States). It reviews the existing legal frameworks, institutional arrangements, key players and water planning mechanisms. One objective was to determine to what extent adaptation to climate change is beginning to be incorporated into water policy frameworks and whether there are some lessons that can be drawn from current experiences. The study concludes that a certain degree of adjustment to climate variability and extreme weather events is inherent to the water sector. However, adaptation to long-term climate change is generally not a significant factor in the management of water resources in the four countries, although some initiatives are being undertaken in several countries to build climate change into decision making. All four countries have water policy frameworks, which to different extents, can help them adapt to climate change. These water policy frameworks, which differ in each country, can be enhanced to promote adaptation to climate change. They generally include the following elements: A system of laws (legal frameworks) that stipulate rights and responsibilities of different levels of government and private entities. These may include, for example, a system of water rights and abstraction permits; A variety of national, regional and sub

Long Term Effects of Fiscal Policy on the Size and the Distribution of the Pie in the UK

OpenAIRE

Xavier Ramos; Oriol Roca-Sagales

2007-01-01

This paper provides a joint analysis of the output and distributional long term effects of various fiscal policies in the UK, using a Vector Autoregression approach. Our findings suggest that the output effects of fiscal policies are consistent with the Keynesian paradigm for both direct and indirect taxes but not for public spending. The estimated long term impact on GDP of increasing all type of expenditure and taxes analysed is negative and especially strong in the case of current expendit...

Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. S. Lord

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due to the high computational requirements of current fully coupled general circulation models (GCMs, long-term simulations can generally only be performed with less complex models and/or at lower spatial resolution. In this study, we present novel long-term continuous projections of climate evolution based on the output from GCMs, via the use of a statistical emulator. The emulator is calibrated using ensembles of GCM simulations, which have varying orbital configurations and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and enables a variety of investigations of long-term climate change to be conducted, which would not be possible with other modelling techniques on the same temporal and spatial scales. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the emulator to the late Pliocene (by modelling surface air temperature – SAT, comparing its results with palaeo-proxy data for a number of global sites, and to the next 200 kyr (thousand years (by modelling SAT and precipitation. A range of CO2 scenarios are prescribed for each period. During the late Pliocene, we find that emulated SAT varies on an approximately precessional timescale, with evidence of increased obliquity response at times. A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration for this period, estimated using the proxy sea surface temperature (SST data from different sites and emulator results, finds that relatively similar CO2 concentrations are estimated based on sites at lower latitudes, whereas higher-latitude sites show larger discrepancies. In our second illustrative application, spanning the next

Policy beyond the horizon. Climate policy in Den Bosch, Netherlands; Beleid tot achter de horizon. Totstandkoming van klimaatbeleid in de gemeente 's-Hertogenbosch

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, G.B.C.

2012-10-15

In 's-Hertogenbosch (a.k.a. Den Bosch), the Netherlands, the municipal auditing committee was asked by the city council to evaluate the city's climate policy, looking at both design and implementation. Progress on the long-term aim of climate-neutrality proved to be lagging behind. The aim of the audit was to establish what policy targets have been set, whether the stated ambitions are realistic, why target realisation is not on track, and what kind of strategies and corrective action might be pursued to rectify the situation. The learning effects of the audit have spin-off for more than just climate policy, as the city, and city hall, face issues relating to long-term policy (development, steering, validation) in other areas, too. The topic of climate (policies, targets) is currently on the agenda of many Dutch municipalities. In their work, the Den Bosch municipal auditing committee were supported by several CE Delft consultants [Dutch] De Rekenkamercommissie 's-Hertogenbosch heeft op verzoek van de gemeenteraad onderzoek verricht naar de totstandkoming en uitvoering van het klimaatbeleid in 's-Hertogenbosch. De lange termijndoelen rondom het bereiken van klimaatneutraliteit bleken achter te lopen. Het doel van het onderzoek was om na te gaan welke beleidsdoelen geformuleerd zijn, of de daarbij geformuleerde verwachtingen reëel zijn, wat de oorzaken zijn van het lagere dan beoogde realisatietempo, en welke mogelijke oplossingsrichtingen en (bij)sturingsmogelijkheden er zijn. De leereffecten van het onderzoek zijn breder dan alleen het klimaatbeleid. Er zijn meer terreinen waarop de gemeente(raad) te maken krijgt met ontwikkeling, sturing en controle van doelen op de langere termijn. Het onderwerp (klimaatbeleid/klimaatdoelen) is bij veel gemeenten actueel. De Rekenkamercommissie heeft zich bij dit onderzoek laten ondersteunen door onderzoekers van bureau CE Delft.

Expanding research capabilities with sea ice climate records for analysis of long-term climate change and short-term variability

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, D. J.; Meier, W. N.

2008-12-01

Recent sea ice analysis is leading to predictions of a sea ice-free summertime in the Arctic within 20 years, or even sooner. Sea ice topics, such as concentration, extent, motion, and age, are predominately studied using satellite data. At the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), passive microwave sea ice data sets provide timely assessments of seasonal-scale variability as well as consistent long-term climate data records. Such data sets are crucial to understanding changes and assessing their impacts. Noticeable impacts of changing sea ice conditions on native cultures and wildlife in the Arctic region are now being documented. With continued deterioration in Arctic sea ice, global economic impacts will be seen as new shipping routes open. NSIDC is at the forefront of making climate data records available to address the changes in sea ice and its global impacts. By focusing on integrated data sets, NSIDC leads the way by broadening the studies of sea ice beyond the traditional cryospheric community.

Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

2015-04-01

Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further

Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

2000-08-01

The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

Impacts of the financial crisis on climate and energy policy. Memo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

By request of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and the Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) have mapped the main effects of the credit crisis on Dutch climate and energy policy. This memo describes the effects of the credit crisis on the economy (question 1) and more particularly the effect on realizing the Dutch targets for 2020 for climate and energy policy as established in the policy program 'Clean and Efficient' (question 2). A distinction should be made between the short term effects (during the recession) and the longer term effects (the years after)(question 5). Moreover, the realization of the Kyoto target for 2008-2012 is addressed (question 3) as well as the question if the Dutch government can incentivise investments in climate and energy that can contribute to economic recovery in the short term (question 4) [mk] [nl

Evaluation of long-term geological and climatic changes in the Spanish programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, T.; Ortiz, J.E.; Cortes, A.; Delgado, A.

2004-01-01

The Bio-molecular Stratigraphy Laboratory of the Madrid School of Mines has been largely involved in the analysis of long-term paleo-environmental changes in the Iberian Peninsula during the Quaternary. Some of the research projects were UE funded: Paleo-climatological Revision of Climate Evolution in Western Mediterranean Region. Evaluation of Altered Scenarios, Evidence from Quaternary Infill Paleo-hydrogeology, Sequential Biosphere modelling function of Climate evolution models; Paleo-hydrogeological Data Analysis and Model Testing. Other projects were funded by the National Company for Radioactive Waste Management (ENRESA) and the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN): 'Paleo-climate reconstruction from Middle Pleistocene times through dating and isotopic analysis of tufa deposits'; 'Paleo-environmental evolution of the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula'; 'Paleo-climate'. On a minor scale the laboratory was also involved in the study of some argillaceous media: 'Organic Geochemistry of some deep Spanish argillaceous formations' and 'Effects of climatic change on the argillaceous series of the Duero and Ebro basins'. Here we will present some of the results obtained from tufa deposits analysis and paleo-environmental information from the Guadix-Baza Basin composite-stratigraphical-type-section study. (authors)

Climate and Energy Policy in Hungary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Csete

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The energy problem has been redefined as one of the most important elements of sustainable development by climate change, adaptation and mitigation. Meeting energy needs is always a current issue in Hungary, irrespective of climate change because of the country’s high dependency on oil and gas imports, limited opportunities to replace them with domestic production, and the pollution associated with using fossil energy sources. Increasing effectiveness and saving energy can provide relatively short-term solutions with bearable costs and a relatively quick return on investment. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview about the climate and energy policy in Hungary with a special focus on the new energy strategy. Energy policy has a pivotal role in the economic recovery plan of the Hungarian government. The National Energy Strategy 2030 taking shape in Hungary takes climate policy into account with respect to adaptation and mitigation and lists renewable energy sources as the second most important tool for achieving strategic goals. As in most countries, it is also possible in Hungary to introduce climate strategy measures with zero social costs. The expedient management of climate change requires the combination of prevention, adaptation and dissemination initiatives. Strategies must meet a dual requirement: they must face the economic risks associated with premature measures, while also considering the adverse effects of delay.

Climate policy: Bucket or drainer?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oikonomou, Vlasis; Patel, Martin; Worrell, Ernst

2006-01-01

Worldwide, industry is responsible for about 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making it an important target for climate policy. Energy-intensive industries may be particularly vulnerable to higher energy costs caused by climate policy. If companies cannot offset rising energy costs and would face increased competition from countries without climate policy, they may decide to relocate their industrial production to the countries without climate policy. The resulting net effect of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries is typically referred to as 'carbon leakage'. Carbon leakage may lead to higher global GHG emissions due to the use of less advanced technology in less developed countries. Based on a literature review of climate policy, earlier environmental policy and analyses of historical trends, this paper assesses the carbon leakage effects of climate policy for energy-intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased global production share of Non-Annex 1 countries. However, from empirical analyses we conclude that the trend is primarily driven by regional demand growth. In contrast, climate policy models show a strong carbon leakage. Even though future climate policy may have a more profound impact than environmental policies in the past, the modelling results are doubtful. Leakage generally seems to be overestimated in current models, especially as potential positive spillovers are often not included in the models. The ambiguity of the empirical analyses and the modelling results warrants further research in the importance of production factors for relocation

The long-term environmental and medical effects of nuclear war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-03-01

Part 1 describes the physical structure of the atmosphere and reviews recent studies which have considered the atmospheric perturbations which could follow a nuclear war according to various scenarios. Part 2 describes the biological consequences of predicted atmospheric and climatic changes, concentrating on the long term implications for health and human well- being. Part 3 outlines some policy implications arising out of these environmental consequences and includes the conclusions and a summary of the report. (author)

When the private sphere goes public: exploring the issues facing family caregiver organizations in the development of long-term care policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rozario, Philip A; Palley, Elizabeth

2008-01-01

Though family caregiving forms the backbone of the long-term care system in the United States, long-term care policies have traditionally focused on paid services that frail older people and people with disabilities utilize for their day-to-day functioning. Part of the exclusion of family caregiving from the long-term care discourse stems from the traditional separation of the private sphere, where family caregiving occurs, from the public sphere of policy making. However, the passage of the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA), the National Family Caregiver Support Program (NFCSP) and Medicaid waiver legislation may reflect recent changes in the government's position on their role in addressing issues related to the "private spheres." In this article, we explore the nature of family caregiving in the United States, the divide between the public and private spheres and provide an overview of family caregiving-related policies and programs in the U.S. In our review, we examine the provisions in the FMLA, NFCSP, and Medicaid waiver legislation that support family caregiving efforts. We also examine the roles of family caregiver organizations in making family caregiving an important element of long-term care policy and influencing policy-making.

Climate change policy and international trade. Policy considerations in the US

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, Christopher L.; Peters, Glen P.

2009-01-01

Significant recent attention, in both research and policy realms, has been given to the intersection of international trade and global climate change. Trade presents challenges to climate policy through carbon leakage and competitiveness concerns, but also potential solutions through the use of cooperative trade agreements, technology transfer, or carbon tariffs against recalcitrant nations. This study examines how trade may affect climate policy in the US and specifically examines the use of carbon tariffs as suggested by recent bills before the US Congress. We argue that even if such actions are legal at the World Trade Organization, they are probably not necessary to protect industrial competitiveness in the traditional sense, could cover only a small proportion of total embodied emissions in trade, and may in fact be counterproductive at a moment when global cooperation is desperately needed. While political agreement may necessitate at least the threat of carbon tariffs, cooperative agreements such as global sectoral agreements, technology sharing, etc. could be more productive in the short term. (author)

Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

2012-10-16

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy.

Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

2012-01-01

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

Long Term Eff ects of Fiscal Policy on the Size and the Distribution of the Pie in the UK

OpenAIRE

RAMOS, Xavier; ROCA-SAGALES, Oriol

2007-01-01

This paper provides a joint analysis of the output and distributional long term effects of various fiscal policies in the UK, using a Vector Autoregression approach. Our findings suggest that the output effects of fiscal policies are consistent with the Keynesian paradigm for both direct and indirect taxes but not for public spending. The estimated long term impact on GDP of increasing all type of expenditure and taxes analysed is negative and especially strong in the case of curr...

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms — national objectives and alignments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Garg, Amit; Christensen, John M.

2014-01-01

for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options......, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have...... been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together...

GENERALIZED MILANKOVITCH CYCLES AND LONG-TERM CLIMATIC HABITABILITY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spiegel, David S.; Dressing, Courtney D.; Raymond, Sean N.; Scharf, Caleb A.; Mitchell, Jonathan L.

2010-01-01

Although Earth's orbit is never far from circular, terrestrial planets around other stars might experience substantial changes in eccentricity. Eccentricity variations could lead to climate changes, including possible 'phase transitions' such as the snowball transition (or its opposite). There is evidence that Earth has gone through at least one globally frozen, 'snowball' state in the last billion years, which it is thought to have exited after several million years because global ice-cover shut off the carbonate-silicate cycle, thereby allowing greenhouse gases to build up to sufficient concentration to melt the ice. Due to the positive feedback caused by the high albedo of snow and ice, susceptibility to falling into snowball states might be a generic feature of water-rich planets with the capacity to host life. This paper has two main thrusts. First, we revisit one-dimensional energy balance climate models as tools for probing possible climates of exoplanets, investigate the dimensional scaling of such models, and introduce a simple algorithm to treat the melting of the ice layer on a globally frozen planet. We show that if a terrestrial planet undergoes Milankovitch-like oscillations of eccentricity that are of great enough magnitude, it could melt out of a snowball state. Second, we examine the kinds of variations of eccentricity that a terrestrial planet might experience due to the gravitational influence of a giant companion. We show that a giant planet on a sufficiently eccentric orbit can excite extreme eccentricity oscillations in the orbit of a habitable terrestrial planet. More generally, these two results demonstrate that the long-term habitability (and astronomical observables) of a terrestrial planet can depend on the detailed architecture of the planetary system in which it resides.

Long-term energy futures: the critical role of technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grubler, A.

1999-01-01

The paper briefly reviews the results of a 5-year study conducted by IIASA jointly with the World Energy Council (WEC) on long term-energy perspectives. After summarizing the study's main findings, the paper addresses the crucial role of technological change in the evolution of long-term energy futures and in responding to key long-term uncertainties in the domains of energy demand growth, economics, as well as environmental protection. Based on most recent empirical and methodological findings, long-term dynamics of technological change portray a number of distinct features that need to be taken account of in technology and energy policy. First, success of innovation efforts and ultimate outcomes of technological are uncertain. Second, new, improved technologies are not a free good, but require continued dedicated efforts. Third, technological knowledge (as resulting from R and D and accumulation of experience, i.e. technological learning) exhibits characteristics of (uncertain) increasing returns. Forth, due to innovation - diffusion lags, technological interdependence, and infrastructure needs (network externalities), rates of change in large-scale energy systems are necessarily slow. This implies acting sooner rather than later as a contigency policy to respond to long-term social, economic and environmental uncertainties, most notably possible climate change. Rather than picking technological 'winners' the results of the IIASA-WEC scenario studies are seen most appropriate to guide technology and R and D portfolio analysis. Nonetheless, robust persistent patterns of technological change invariably occur across all scenarios. Examples of primising groups of technologies are given. The crucial importance of meeting long-energy demand in developing countries, assuring large-scale infrastructure investments, maintaining a strong and diversified R AND D protfolio, as well as to dvise new institutional mechnisms for technology development and diffusion for instance

High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

2012-01-01

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

Consideration of environmental change in the safety evaluation: Long-term climate scenarios in the Iberian Peninsula

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Recreo Jimenez, F.; Ruiz Rivas, C.

1997-01-01

The main objective of this report is twofold. On the one hand, to define the most likely sequences of climate states in the Iberian Peninsula for a period of 125 Ka into the future, to the next interglacial stage, 125 Ka AP; on the other hand, to establish potential climate scenarios during such a period of time determining also the variability ranges of primary climate and climate-related variables of interest to the post-closure performance assessment and underground repository safety evaluations. The report reviews the potential effects of environmental changes on the performance of underground radioactive waste repositories, emphasizing the consideration given to long-term climatic changes in radioactive waste disposal system safety evaluations. (Author)

Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Nico; McGlade, Christophe; Hilaire, Jérôme; Ekins, Paul

2018-01-01

Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies1. Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities2-4, which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments5,6, the Paris Agreement on climate7 signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 °C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 20308-10. However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox11 and the divestment effect12, which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.

Diverse perspectives on governance on the very long term. Biodiversity, climatic change, CO2 storage, radioactive wastes, space wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeuf, Gilles; Gouyon, Pierre Henry; Rollinger, Francois; Besnus, Francois; Heriard Dubreuil, Gilles; Dahan, Amy; Alby, Fernand; Arnould, Jacques; Fabriol, Hubert; Hoummady, Moussa; Demarcq, Francois; Farret, Regis; Hubert, Philippe; Weber, Jacques; Charton, Patrick; Boissier, Fabrice; Lopez, Mirelle; Devisse, Jean-Jacques; Mathy, Sandrine; Hourcade, Jean-Charles; Le Roux, Xavier; Bourcier, Danielle; Roure, Francoise; Henry, Claude; Bartet, Jean Hughes; Calame, Mathieu; Biteau, Benoit; Kastler, Guy; Ducret, Pierre; Berest, Pierre; Charron, Sylvie; Clin, Francois; Gadbois, Serge; Gueritte, Michel; Heriard-Dubreuil, Bertrand; Laville, Bettina; Marie, Michel; Marignac, Yves; Ollagnon, Henry; Pelegrin, Flora; Roure, Francoise; Rouyer, Michel; Schellenberger, Thomas; Toussaint, Jean-Francois

2013-03-01

This bibliographical note contains the program of a workshop and a presentation of a book based on the contributions to this workshop proposed by experts, representatives of institutional bodies and associations, or local representatives. This workshop addressed the issue of the governance on the very long term with respect to the management of resources such as climate, geology, biodiversity or space. How to make a possible usage of these resources while ensuring their protection and durability? What are the solutions or new challenges are raising these usages on the very long term? The first part addresses the main challenges and ethical issues for governance on the very long term for each of the examined topics: biodiversity, climatic change, CO 2 storage, radioactive waste storage, and space debris). The next parts propose contributions from different origins and disciplines, present relevant data, and report evidences

Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

2014-12-01

To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

Long term planning for wind energy development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trinick, M.

1995-01-01

In a planning system intended to be governed primarily by policies in statutory plans a reasonable horizon for long term planning is 10 years or longer. Because of statutory requirements, developers have no option but to pay due regard to, and take a full part in, long term planning. The paper examines the type of policies which have emerged in the last few years to cater for wind energy development. It canvasses the merits of different types of policies. Finally, it discusses the policy framework which may emerge to cater for development outside NFFO. (Author)

A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon

2014-01-01

China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO 2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement. - Highlights: • We assessed long-term impacts of building codes and climate policy using GCAM. • Building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13–22%. • The impacts of codes on building energy use vary by climate region and sub-sector

Climate-vegetation-soil interactions and long-term hydrologic partitioning: signatures of catchment co-evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. A. Troch

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Budyko (1974 postulated that long-term catchment water balance is controlled to first order by the available water and energy. This leads to the interesting question of how do landscape characteristics (soils, geology, vegetation and climate properties (precipitation, potential evaporation, number of wet and dry days interact at the catchment scale to produce such a simple and predictable outcome of hydrological partitioning? Here we use a physically-based hydrologic model separately parameterized in 12 US catchments across a climate gradient to decouple the impact of climate and landscape properties to gain insight into the role of climate-vegetation-soil interactions in long-term hydrologic partitioning. The 12 catchment models (with different paramterizations are subjected to the 12 different climate forcings, resulting in 144 10 yr model simulations. The results are analyzed per catchment (one catchment model subjected to 12 climates and per climate (one climate filtered by 12 different model parameterization, and compared to water balance predictions based on Budyko's hypothesis (E/P = ϕ (Ep/P; E: evaporation, P: precipitation, Ep: potential evaporation. We find significant anti-correlation between average deviations of the evaporation index (E/P computed per catchment vs. per climate, compared to that predicted by Budyko. Catchments that on average produce more E/P have developed in climates that on average produce less E/P, when compared to Budyko's prediction. Water and energy seasonality could not explain these observations, confirming previous results reported by Potter et al. (2005. Next, we analyze which model (i.e., landscape filter characteristics explain the catchment's tendency to produce more or less E/P. We find that the time scale that controls subsurface storage release explains the observed trend. This time scale combines several geomorphologic and hydraulic soil properties. Catchments with relatively longer

Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Boykoff, M. T.

2012-12-01

views of science (a.k.a. scientific consensus), drive to fulfill the perceived desires of special interests (e.g. carbon-based industry), and/or exhilaration from self-perceived academic martyrdom and more general desires for notoriety. This species of climate celebrity has 'brought climate change home' as Rachel Slocum as put it, but in particular and paradoxical ways. Thus, this exploration is motivated by the interest to better understand how these interventions - sharing ideological kinship with the 'Wise Use movement' of the 1980s and 1990s - have contributed to (mis) perceptions and (mis) understandings that shape the spectrum of possibility for responses to contemporary climate challenges. Considerations of 'who speaks for climate' may be as important as formal climate governance architectures themselves to the long-term success or failure of efforts to take carbon out of the atmosphere or keep it out. The many 'actors' in the theatre of cultural politics - from climate scientists to business industry interests and ENGO (pro)activists to climate contrarians - are ultimately all members of a collective public citizenry. In short, a more informed public and better understood links between science, policy and media are in our collective self-interest.

What Legislators Need to Know about Long-Term Care Insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Landes, David

This booklet discusses the potential importance to states of long-term care insurance, describes general policy characteristics, and summarizes state actions to both regulate and promote long-term care insurance. It is intended as a resource for legislators and others involved in long-term care financing and public policy formulation. Long-term…

Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground

Science.gov (United States)

Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.

2012-03-01

Numerous studies indicate that the northern high latitudes are experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental change, including an increase in air temperatures (e.g. Serreze and Francis 2006), reduction of snow cover (e.g. Brown and Robinson 2011), ecosystem transformations and land cover changes (e.g. Callaghan et al 2011). Many of the potential environmental impacts of global warming in the high latitudes are associated with frozen ground, which occupies about 55% of the unglaciated land area in the northern hemisphere and consists of both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground. Frozen soils have a tremendous impact on hydrologic, climatic and biologic systems. Periodic freezing and thawing promote changes in soil structure, affect the surface and subsurface water cycle, and regulate the availability of nutrients in the soil for plants and biota that depend upon them. Freezing and thawing cycles can affect the decomposition of organic substances in the soil and greenhouse gas exchange between the atmosphere and land surface. Significant efforts have been devoted to permafrost-related studies, including the establishment of standardized observations (e.g. Romanovsky et al 2010, Shiklomanov et al 2008), modeling (e.g. Riseborough et al 2008), and climate-related feedback processes (e.g. Schuur et al 2008). Despite its vast extent and importance, seasonally frozen ground has received much less attention. One of the major obstacles in assessing changes in seasonally frozen ground is the lack of long-term data. In general, observations on soil temperature and freeze propagation are available for a limited area and involve a relatively short time period, precluding assessment of long-term, climate-driven change. A few known exceptions include shallow soil temperature and freeze/thaw depth observations conducted as part of the standard hydrometeorological monitoring system in China (e.g. Zhao et al 2004) and the Soviet Union/Russia (e.g. Gilichinsky et al 2000

Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2009-01-01

This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

Influence of smallholder farmers’ perceptions on adaptation strategies to climate change and policy implications in Zimbabwe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiri Obert

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Smallholder agricultural production is largely affected by climate change and variability. Despite the negative effects brought by climate variability, smallholder farmers are still able to derive livelihoods. An understanding of factors that influence farmers’ responses and adaptation to climate variability can improve decision making for governments and development partners. This study investigated farmers’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change and how these influence adaptation policies at local level. A survey was conducted with 100 households randomly selected from Chiredzi district. Data collected was used to derive farmer perceptions to climate change as well as the influence of their perceptions and subsequent adaptation methods to ensuing local agricultural adaptation measures and policies. The results indicated that smallholder farmers perceived general reduction in long-term annual rainfall and rising local average temperatures. Adverse trends in rainfall and average temperature perceived by farmers were consistent with empirical data. These perceptions and other socio-economic factors helped to shape smallholder farmer agricultural adaptation strategies. Policy implications are that the government and development partners should seek ways to assist autonomous adaptations by farmers through investments in planned adaptation initiatives.

Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Tony N.T. [Building Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR (China)

2010-02-15

Past and future trends of human comfort in terms of heat and cold stresses under the local subtropical climates using measured meteorological data as well as predictions from general climate models were investigated. Summer discomfort showed an increasing trend (and winter discomfort a decreasing trend) over the past 41 years from 1968 to 2008. Monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures and moisture content predictions from a general climate model (MIROC3.2-H) were used to determine summer and winter discomfort for future years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). The 92-year (2009-2100) mean cold stress would be reduced from the 41-year (1968-2008) mean value of 8.7 to about three for both emissions scenarios. The 92-year mean heat stress would be 115.9 and 120.6 for B1 and A1B, respectively, representing 31.6% and 36.9% increase over the 1968-2008 long-term average of 88.1. These suggest that the already small winter heating requirement in subtropical Hong Kong would become even more insignificant in future years, whereas the increasing trend of summer discomfort would result in more cooling demand in the built environment. (author)

People's opinion of climate policy. Popular support for climate policy alternatives in Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marino, Sjoevaag Marit; Bjoerge, Nils Erik; Ericson, Torgeir; Garnaasjordet, Per Arild; Karlsen, Haakon T.; Randers; Joergen; Rees, Daniel

2012-01-01

How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.(Author)

Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

2017-04-01

At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the

The influence of long term climate change on net infiltration at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flint, A.L.; Hevesi, J.A.; Flint, L.E.

1993-01-01

Net infiltration and recharge at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high level nuclear waste repository, are determined both by the rock properties and past and future changes in climate. A 1-dimensional model was constructed to represent a borehole being drilled through the unsaturated zone. The rock properties were matched to the lithologies expected to be encountered in the borehole. As current paleoclimate theory assumes that 18 O increases with wetter and cooler global climates, a past climate scenario, built on depletion of 18 O from ocean sediments was used as a basis for climate change over the past 700,000 years. The climate change was simulated by assigning net infiltration values as a linear function of 18 O. Assuming the rock properties, lithologies, and climate scenarios are correct, simulations indicated that Yucca Mountain is not in steady state equilibrium at the surface ( 250 meters. Based on the cyclic climate inputs, the near surface is currently in a long term drying trend (for the last 3,000 years) yet recharge into the water table is continuing to occur at an average rate equivalent to the average input rate of the climate model, indicating that conditions at depth are damped out over very long time periods. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units, positioned between the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring welded tuff Members, do not appear to act as a capillary barrier and therefore would not perch water. The low porosity vitric caprock and basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Member, however, act as restrictive layers. The higher porosity rock directly above the caprock reduces the potential for the caprock to perch water leaving the basal vitrophyre as the most likely location for perched water to develop

Financial impacts of UK's energy and climate change policies on commercial and industrial businesses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ang, Chye Peng; Toper, Bruce; Gambhir, Ajay

2016-01-01

This study provides a detailed case study assessment of two business sites in the UK, to understand the policy drivers of increases to their energy costs and energy bills, considering all current UK energy and climate change policies. We compare our findings to more generalised, theoretical calculations of the policy cost impact on energy costs and bills – we have found no other studies as comprehensive as ours in terms of policy coverage. We find that for one site the government has over-estimated the likely energy savings due to energy efficiency options. Such differences in estimates should be taken into account when considering the efficacy of climate change policies on future energy savings. The overall impact of energy and climate change policies on costs will be of the order 0.4% of total business costs by 2020. This provides an important metric for the near-term cost of mitigation to meet longer-term climate change goals. - Highlights: •Cumulative impacts of policies on energy prices and bills were studied. •Projected bills for one site are higher than those projected by the UK government. •Results of existing theoretical studies may not be fully representative. •Impact of policies is not considered significant with respect to competitiveness.

Similar and yet so different: cash-for-care in six European countries' long-term care policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Da Roit, Barbara; Le Bihan, Blanche

2010-09-01

In response to increasing care needs, the reform or development of long-term care (LTC) systems has become a prominent policy issue in all European countries. Cash-for-care schemes-allowances instead of services provided to dependents-represent a key policy aimed at ensuring choice, fostering family care, developing care markets, and containing costs. A detailed analysis of policy documents and regulations, together with a systematic review of existing studies, was used to investigate the differences among six European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden). The rationale and evolution of their various cash-for-care schemes within the framework of their LTC systems also were explored. While most of the literature present cash-for-care schemes as a common trend in the reforms that began in the 1990s and often treat them separately from the overarching LTC policies, this article argues that the policy context, timing, and specific regulation of the new schemes have created different visions of care and care work that in turn have given rise to distinct LTC configurations. A new typology of long-term care configurations is proposed based on the inclusiveness of the system, the role of cash-for-care schemes and their specific regulations, as well as the views of informal care and the care work that they require. © 2010 Milbank Memorial Fund. Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Climate policy. The dirt, the country and the world. Part 2. Investing in a start

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wit, R.; Honig, E.

2008-01-01

The climate policy is a global problem that can only be solved on a global level. The effect of a unilateral emission reduction target on global temperature rise will be limited if international climate negotiations should fail. Nevertheless, there are numerous reasons for the Netherlands and Europe to be in the forefront. The unilateral emission reduction target of 20%, as established by the EU, can have an exemplary function and offer opportunities for other countries to join a large coalition. Such an opportunity offers international trade and industry clarity as to the continuance of the European trading system. The certainty that a price for CO2 will continue to exist in the long term stimulates technology development. Moreover, climate policy contributes to improving local air quality and security of energy supply. The required height of a unilateral target is a political choice, which should incorporate national costs and benefits and the urgency of the problem. This article discusses five arguments for an ambitious unilateral national and European policy. [mk] [nl

Is climate change-centrism an optimal policy making strategy to set national electricity mixes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vázquez-Rowe, Ian; Reyna, Janet L.; García-Torres, Samy; Kahhat, Ramzy

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The impact of climate-centric policies on other environmental impacts is uncertain. • Analysis of changing electricity grids of Peru and Spain in the period 1989–2013. • Life Cycle Assessment was the selected sustainability method to conduct the study. • Policies targeting GHG reductions also reduce air pollution and toxicity. • Resource usage, especially water, does not show the same trends as GHG emissions. - Abstract: In order to combat the threat of climate change, countries have begun to implement policies which restrict GHG emissions in the electricity sector. However, the development of national electricity mixes should also be sensitive to resource availability, geo-political forces, human health impacts, and social equity concerns. Policy focused on GHG goals could potentially lead to adverse consequences in other areas. To explore the impact of “climate-centric” policy making on long-term electricity mix changes, we develop two cases for Peru and Spain analyzing their changing electricity grids in the period 1989–2013. We perform a Life Cycle Assessment of annual electricity production to catalogue the improvements in GHG emissions relative to other environmental impacts. We conclude that policies targeting GHG reductions might have the co-benefit of also reducing air pollution and toxicity at the expense of other important environmental performance indicators such as water depletion. Moreover, as of 2013, both countries generate approximately equal GHG emissions per kWh, and relatively low emission rates of other pollutants compared to nations of similar development levels. Although climate-centric policy can lead to some positive environmental outcomes in certain areas, energy policy-making should be holistic and include other aspects of sustainability and vulnerability.

Spatial and temporal distribution of long term public policy costs under uncertainty, the case of climate change; Distribution spatiale et temporelle des couts de politiques publiques sous incertitudes: theorie et pratique dans le cas de l'effet de serre

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lecocq, F

2000-07-15

Because of the inertia of the climate system, policy makers cannot avoid making early decisions regarding climate change in a sea of uncertainties. In this context, the very legitimacy of economic analysis to tackle such questions, and in particular the underlying equity issues (who pays for climate mitigation? when?) faces widespread skepticism. This thesis aims at demonstrating how public economy still remains a powerful tool to try and put some rationale into the debate, by checking the internal consistency of the different discourses, and by providing robust insights, if not definitive answers, into climate decisions. We use a set of compact integrated climate policy optimization models to progressively introduce, articulate, and assess numerically the prominent issues at stake. We obtain three main results. We first demonstrate that the so-called timing debate between short term and long term action cannot be reduced to a mere dispute over discount rate. Given the high uncertainties surrounding climate change indeed, the margins of freedom we pass on to future generations, and in particular the technical and institutional systems we transmit, become more important than the discount rate value. Secondly, we apply the various emission quota allocation rules proposed in the literature for the enlargement of annex B to developing economies. We show that the distributive outcome of these rules depends critically on ex ante assumptions about future economic and emission growth. Therefrom, we conclude that a careful design of the institutions surrounding the tradable permits market is a necessary condition to enhance the systems robustness. Last, on a broader perspective, this thesis illustrates the complementarity between ethics and economics: though the economist does not have per se a superior word about what is fair, his toolbox is powerful enough to show how some intuitively appealing ideas, such as a zero discount rate to take care of both present and future

Excavation-drier method of energy-peat extraction reduces long-term climatic impact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silvan, N.; Silvan, K.; Laine, J. [Finnish Forest Research Inst., Parkano (Finland)], e-mail: niko.silvan@metla.fi; Vaisanen, S.; Soukka, R. [Lappeenranta Univ.of Techology (Finland)

2012-11-01

Climatic impacts of energy-peat extraction are of increasing concern due to EU emissions trading requirements. A new excavation-drier peat extraction method has been developed to reduce the climatic impact and increase the efficiency of peat extraction. To quantify and compare the soil GHG fluxes of the excavation drier and the traditional milling methods, as well as the areas from which the energy peat is planned to be extracted in the future (extraction reserve area types), soil CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O fluxes were measured during 2006-2007 at three sites in Finland. Within each site, fluxes were measured from drained extraction reserve areas, extraction fields and stockpiles of both methods and additionally from the biomass driers of the excavation-drier method. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), described at a principal level in ISO Standards 14040:2006 and 14044:2006, was used to assess the long-term (100 years) climatic impact from peatland utilisation with respect to land use and energy production chains where utilisation of coal was replaced with peat. Coal was used as a reference since in many cases peat and coal can replace each other in same power plants. According to this study, the peat extraction method used was of lesser significance than the extraction reserve area type in regards to the climatic impact. However, the excavation-drier method seems to cause a slightly reduced climatic impact as compared with the prevailing milling method. (orig.)

Environmental Issues in the Power Sector : Long-Term Impacts and Policy Options for Karnataka

OpenAIRE

World Bank

2004-01-01

This study of the long-term environmental impacts and policy options for power sector development in Karnataka, is one of a series undertaken by the Bank, in cooperation with the Government of India and state governments. It is a follow-up to the broader study Environmental Issues in the Power Sector (EIPS) (ESMAP/World Bank 1998), and the general methodology developed for EIPS, is used fo...

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Science.gov (United States)

Irena F. Creed; Adam T. Spargo; Julia A. Jones; Jim M. Buttle; Mary B. Adams; Fred D. Beall; Eric G. Booth; John L. Campbell; Dave Clow; Kelly Elder; Mark B. Green; Nancy B. Grimm; Chelcy Miniat; Patricia Ramlal; Amartya Saha; Stephen Sebestyen; Dave Spittlehouse; Shannon Sterling; Mark W. Williams; Rita Winkler; Huaxia. Yao

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary.We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm...

Long-term constraints on human activity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lovins, A. B.

1976-04-01

Biophysical and other ''outer limits'' of food, land, water, climatic change, stratospheric chemistry, energy, hazardous substances, non-fuel minerals, human stress, and social and ecological stability raise fundamental questions about present trends in management methods and in global organization. The diverse outer limits reflect complex, poorly perceived, and often unsuspected, interconnections between numerous biological and geophysical processes, many of which are obscure or still unknown. Our lack of predictive power, let alone of quantitative understanding, implies a need to treat essential life-support systems with great caution and forbearance, lest we erode safety margins whose importance we do not yet appreciate. Even those outer limits which now seem remote are relevant to present policy, as their timely avoidance may require us to discard otherwise attractive short-term policies in favor of others that offer less immediate advantage but that retain options which may be needed later. Such alternative policies may have to rely more on social than on technical innovation in order to address underlying disequilibria rather than merely palliating their symptoms. Moreover, some outer limits are sufficiently imminent, or require such long lead-times to avoid, that fundamental changes in policy, in institutions, and in the degree of global interdependence, seem necessary if we are to live to enjoy some of the later and more interesting limits to human activity.

Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

2015-06-01

Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974-2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.

Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

2018-02-01

In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

Mexico’s Transition to a Net-Zero Emissions Energy System: Near Term Implications of Long Term Stringent Climate Targets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Solano-Rodríguez, Baltazar; Pizarro Alonso, Amalia Rosa; Vaillancourt, Kathleen

2018-01-01

Mexico has positioned itself as a leader among emerging countries for its efforts to mitigate climate change through ambitious climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the Energy Reform bill approved in 2014 promotes the production of hydrocarbons to develop...... the economy of this sector, as well as the use of natural gas for electricity generation in order to reduce electricity prices in the short term. In 2016, nearly 80% of Mexico’s total electricity was generated by thermal power plants. While natural gas prices stay low, there might be a limited role...... for natural gas to act as a fuel bridge in this sector if the government is to pursue deep decarbonisation targets to 2050. There is a risk that over-investing in gas infrastructure may delay a transition to lower carbon sources, potentially leading to less cost-efficient pathways towards decarbonisation...

Shift in the United States Climate Policy and the Arctic Council Agenda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sakharov A.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Environmental issues form the basis of the Arctic Council’s agenda. Since the first Senior Arctic Officials (SAOs meeting in 1996, issues related to ecology and climate have been raised at almost every event under the aegis of the forum. A substantial number of structures within the forum’s institutional framework were created to engage in monitoring exercises and scientific research, as well as to harmonize the positions of Arctic Council members on the most pressing environmental and climate change concerns in the region. In this regard, the change in the general course of U.S. environmental policy under the administration of Donald Trump could significantly complicate the interaction between members in key areas of the Council’s agenda. The United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the lifting of the moratorium on oil and gas exploitation in the Arctic seabed will certainly impede dialogue within the Council. Nevertheless, there are several aspects of U.S foreign and internal politics which could work to preserve its long-term environmental policy trend despite changes brought about by the Trump administration. Even in the short term, the activities of the U.S. within the Arctic Council and the provisions of the Fairbanks Ministerial Declaration differ from the president’s statements on climate change. The U.S.’s new environmental policy is compared to the priorities of Finland’s 2017–2019 chairmanship which maintains the traditional environmental focus of the forum’s agenda while intensifying cooperation with other international institutions on climate change issues. Thus, the institutional basis established in previous years, and more importantly, the stable agenda and concrete work by the forum’s bodies ensure the effective use and functioning of the Arctic Council. The Finnish presidency and the secretariat of the Arctic Council are not adjusting the agenda to accommodate policy changes of individual

Long term outlook for gas supply and demand 2007-2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-05-01

Given the economic crisis and the even greater focus of energy policy in recent years on energy efficiency and renewables, earlier expectations in respect of gas demand have to be lowered. Nonetheless, there are still good prospects for gas expanding its position in the EU energy market in the medium to long term. Environmental friendliness and highly efficient technologies in all areas of energy supply give gas a key role in a realistic EU climate policy, the goals of which cannot be achieved solely through increased use of renewables. Its green qualities make gas attractive in direct utilisation in homes and businesses, in centralised power generation, in local CHP plant (including micro-CHP), and - in some member states - in the transport sector too. The current slump in demand is accompanied by strong supply pressure on European procurement markets. Experts do not predict that the present excess supply situation will continue in the long term. It is expected that imports to Europe will rise in order to compensate for the impending fall in domestic European production and to supply additional gas. The procurement challenge cannot be considered in isolation from global developments. The increasing demand for gas worldwide will intensify the competition for global gas reserves on international markets. The European gas industry emphasises the importance of fostering long-term relationships with major suppliers, transit countries and key partners in the EU as well as with multilateral organisations and structures.

2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z.

2007-01-01

The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO 2 Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

How rich is the 2000 Watt society? Impact of energy conservation policy measures on innovation, investment and long-term development of the Swiss economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bretschger, L.; Ramer, R.; Schwark, F.

2010-01-01

The project has integrated endogenous growth theory into a multi-sector numerical model to evaluate the long-run effects of energy and climate policies in Switzerland. The continuous and sector-specific growth, has provided a successful foundation for predicting the development of the Swiss economy over the long and very long run. We have studied the effects of various measures aiming at realizing the goals of the 2000 Watt society and the carbon reduction commitments of the Copenhagen Accord. We find that these policies cause moderate but not negligible welfare costs, provided that we take development without consideration of climate change as a reference case. However, the reference case with considerable economic costs of undamped climate change is more likely. Compared to such a development, the costs of energy and carbon policies appear to be lower, even when the adopted measures are strict. However, to avoid the costs of climate change, international coordination of climate policies is needed. Specifically, we have to assume that the world as a whole will act according to the Copenhagen Accord; only this will lead to the desired effect on global emissions. Sectoral differences in the simulated growth rates are significant; they reflect energy intensities, sectoral linkages, and distinct specialization in capital goods. Under the considered conditions, all the sectors (except oil) will be able to grow in the future, though not with uniform, but rather sector-specific rates. The targets of the 2000 Watt society for 2035 entail somewhat lower welfare losses than the Copenhagen policy for 2050, because the required CO 2 reductions are larger in the second case. The distribution of tax revenues has an impact on consumption and welfare, which depends on the considered time horizon: in the shorter run, research subsidies cannot develop their full advantages for the economy, while in the long run, these subsidies are superior to the redistribution of revenues to

How rich is the 2000 Watt society? Impact of energy conservation policy measures on innovation, investment and long-term development of the Swiss economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bretschger, L.; Ramer, R.; Schwark, F.

2010-07-01

The project has integrated endogenous growth theory into a multi-sector numerical model to evaluate the long-run effects of energy and climate policies in Switzerland. The continuous and sector-specific growth, has provided a successful foundation for predicting the development of the Swiss economy over the long and very long run. We have studied the effects of various measures aiming at realizing the goals of the 2000 Watt society and the carbon reduction commitments of the Copenhagen Accord. We find that these policies cause moderate but not negligible welfare costs, provided that we take development without consideration of climate change as a reference case. However, the reference case with considerable economic costs of undamped climate change is more likely. Compared to such a development, the costs of energy and carbon policies appear to be lower, even when the adopted measures are strict. However, to avoid the costs of climate change, international coordination of climate policies is needed. Specifically, we have to assume that the world as a whole will act according to the Copenhagen Accord; only this will lead to the desired effect on global emissions. Sectoral differences in the simulated growth rates are significant; they reflect energy intensities, sectoral linkages, and distinct specialization in capital goods. Under the considered conditions, all the sectors (except oil) will be able to grow in the future, though not with uniform, but rather sector-specific rates. The targets of the 2000 Watt society for 2035 entail somewhat lower welfare losses than the Copenhagen policy for 2050, because the required CO{sub 2} reductions are larger in the second case. The distribution of tax revenues has an impact on consumption and welfare, which depends on the considered time horizon: in the shorter run, research subsidies cannot develop their full advantages for the economy, while in the long run, these subsidies are superior to the redistribution of revenues to

Spatial and temporal distribution of long term public policy costs under uncertainty, the case of climate change; Distribution spatiale et temporelle des couts de politiques publiques sous incertitudes: theorie et pratique dans le cas de l'effet de serre

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lecocq, F

2000-07-15

Because of the inertia of the climate system, policy makers cannot avoid making early decisions regarding climate change in a sea of uncertainties. In this context, the very legitimacy of economic analysis to tackle such questions, and in particular the underlying equity issues (who pays for climate mitigation? when?) faces widespread skepticism. This thesis aims at demonstrating how public economy still remains a powerful tool to try and put some rationale into the debate, by checking the internal consistency of the different discourses, and by providing robust insights, if not definitive answers, into climate decisions. We use a set of compact integrated climate policy optimization models to progressively introduce, articulate, and assess numerically the prominent issues at stake. We obtain three main results. We first demonstrate that the so-called timing debate between short term and long term action cannot be reduced to a mere dispute over discount rate. Given the high uncertainties surrounding climate change indeed, the margins of freedom we pass on to future generations, and in particular the technical and institutional systems we transmit, become more important than the discount rate value. Secondly, we apply the various emission quota allocation rules proposed in the literature for the enlargement of annex B to developing economies. We show that the distributive outcome of these rules depends critically on ex ante assumptions about future economic and emission growth. Therefrom, we conclude that a careful design of the institutions surrounding the tradable permits market is a necessary condition to enhance the systems robustness. Last, on a broader perspective, this thesis illustrates the complementarity between ethics and economics: though the economist does not have per se a superior word about what is fair, his toolbox is powerful enough to show how some intuitively appealing ideas, such as a zero discount rate to take care of both present and future

Co-benefits of climate policies: a potential keystone of climate negotiations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassen, Christophe; Guivarch, Celine; Lecocq, Franck

2015-01-01

This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5. IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess co-benefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greenhouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years

The cross-country implications of alternative climate policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Aijun; Du, Nan; Wei, Qian

2014-01-01

Because of worldwide growing concerns about global climate change, great interest has been expressed in the potential of alternative climate policies to reduce global carbon emissions. In this paper, we compare cross-country implications of alternative climate policies, including unilateral and multilateral climate policies. Our main findings are as follows. Firstly, there are large differences in cross-country effects of alternative unilateral climate policies, when the same given carbon emission reductions are achieved in each abating country respectively. Meanwhile, cross-border externalities undermine efficiency of unilateral climate policies. Secondly, there are significant differences in cross-country implications of alternative multilateral climate policies, when the same global emission reductions are allocated in several different ways among abating countries. Thirdly, it is difficult to reach a stable global climate treaty, since any abating country has the incentive to argue for small carbon emission reductions. Finally, multilateral climate policies can reduce the negative impacts of cross-border externalities, but cannot cure all cross-border externalities. Looking ahead, it will be a great policy challenge for the world to reduce carbon emissions in a cost-effective way. - highlights: • We compare impacts of unilateral climate policies across countries. • We compare effects of alternative multilateral climate policies. • We explore whether cross-border externalities disappear under multilateral climate policies

Climate-vegetation-fire interactions and their impact on long-term carbon dynamics in a boreal peatland landscape in northern Manitoba, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Camill, Philip; Barry, Ann; Williams, Evie; Andreassi, Christian; Limmer, Jacob; Solick, Donald

2009-12-01

Climate warming may increase the size and frequency of fires in the boreal biome, possibly causing greater carbon release that amplifies warming. However, in peatlands, vegetation change may also control long-term fire and carbon accumulation, confounding simple relationships between climate, fire, and carbon accumulation. Using 17 peat cores dating to 8000 cal years B.P. from northern Manitoba, Canada, we addressed the following questions: (1) Do past climate changes correlate with shifts in peatland vegetation? (2) What is the relationship between peatland vegetation and fire severity? (3) What is the mean return interval for boreal peat fires, and how does it change across fires of different severities? (4) How does fire severity affect carbon accumulation rates? (5) Do fire and long-term carbon accumulation change directly in response to climate or indirectly though climate-driven changes in vegetation? We measured carbon accumulation rates, fire severity, and return intervals using macroscopic charcoal and changes in vegetation using macrofossils. Climate and vegetation changes covaried, with shifts from wetter fen to drier, forested bog communities during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). Fires became more severe following the shift to forested bogs, with fire severity peaking after 4000 cal years B.P. rather than during the HTM. Rising fire severity, in turn, was correlated with a significant decrease in carbon accumulation from ˜6000 to 2000 cal years B.P. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age affected vegetation composition and permafrost, further impacting fire and carbon accumulation. Our results indicate that long-term changes in fire and carbon dynamics are mediated by climate-driven changes in vegetation.

Sustainability of Long-term Care: Puzzling Tasks Ahead for Policy-Makers.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosca, Ilaria; van der Wees, Philip J; Mot, Esther S; Wammes, Joost J G; Jeurissen, Patrick P T

2016-08-17

The sustainability of long-term care (LTC) is a prominent policy priority in many Western countries. LTC is one of the most pressing fiscal issues for the growing population of elderly people in the European Union (EU) Member States. Country recommendations regarding LTC are prominent under the EU's European Semester. This paper examines challenges related to the financial- and organizational sustainability of LTC systems in the EU. We combined a targeted literature review and a descriptive selected country analysis of: (1) public- and private funding; (2) informal care and externalities; and (3) the possible role of technology in increasing productivity. Countries were selected via purposive sampling to establish a cohort of country cases covering the spectrum of differences in LTC systems: public spending, private funding, informal care use, informal care support, and cash benefits. The aging of the population, the increasing gap between availability of informal care and demand for LTC, substantial market failures of private funding for LTC, and fiscal imbalances in some countries, have led to structural reforms and enduring pressures for LTC policy-makers across the EU. Our exploration of national policies illustrates different solutions that attempt to promote fairness while stimulating efficient delivery of services. Important steps must be taken to address the sustainability of LTC. First, countries should look deeper into the possibilities of complementing public- and private funding, as well as at addressing market failures of private funding. Second, informal care externalities with spill-over into neighboring policy areas, the labor force, and formal LTC workers, should be properly addressed. Thirdly, innovations in LTC services should be stimulated to increase productivity through technology and process innovations, and to reduce costs. The analysis shows why it is difficult for EU Member State governments to meet all their goals for sustainable LTC

The impact of the endogenous technical change on climate policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sassi, O.

2008-11-01

This research aims at revisiting the 'autonomous vs. induced' debate on the costs of climate policies, first by broadening the framework of the technical change induction to other economical sectors, and then by attempting to go beyond the concept of technical change induction and think in terms of a structural change induction. After a review of modes of representation of the technical progress in economical prospective models for the assessment of climate policies, the author presents the IMACLIM-R model, a recursive general equilibrium model which simulates the evolution of the world economy within 12 regions and 12 sectors between 2001 and 2100. The results obtained with this model are then presented and discussed, in the case of a reference scenario which displays a significant change towards a carbon-intensive path. These results stress the risks related to a 'laissez faire' attitude. The author explores the consequences in terms of climate policies with a more or less extended taking into account of phenomena of induction of technical and structural changes

Climate change adaptation: policy and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, Amanda H.; Brunner, Ronald D.

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Worldwide, the threefold increase in the incidence of extreme weather events since 1960 was been accompanied by a ninefold increase in damages, reaching a peak of US$219 billion in 2005 due to the impacts of Hurricane Katrina. There is strong evidence that the increases in extremes, particularly heatwave and flood, are related to climate change. Adaptive governance presents an opportunity to factor the global problem into many simpler local problems to be addressed in parallel. We propose opening up the established frame, based on insights from field testing the principles of adaptive governance and independently corroborated by other research. First, in terms of science, we propose more intensive research centred on case studies of local communities and extreme events, each of which is unique under a comprehensive description. Differences among them must be taken into account to understand past damages or reduce vulnerability. Second, in terms of policy, we support a procedurally-rational approach, one that accommodates inevitable uncertainties, integrates scientific and local knowledge into policies to advance the community's common interest, and relies on learning from experience. Importantly, the approach is constructed to give something back of value to the participating communities - usually information and insight on their own circumstances - in return for their time, expertise, and good will. Third, in terms of decision-making, we suggest structural changes that begin with harvesting experience from the bottom-up, to make policies that have worked anywhere on the ground available for voluntary adaptation by similar communities elsewhere, and to inform higher-level officials about local resource needs. This approach produces lessons that can be re-contextualised to inform both scientific understanding and policy action in similar contexts directly, without going through generalisations. The common interest lies in reducing the

Think globally, act locally? Local climate change and energy policies in Sweden and the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collier, U.; Loefstedt, R.E.

1997-01-01

While climate change is obviously a global environmental problem, there is nevertheless potential for policy initiatives at the local level. Although the competences of local authorities vary between countries, they all have some responsibilities in the crucial areas of energy and transport policy. This paper examines local competences in Sweden and the UK and looks at the responses to the climate change issue by six local authorities, focussing on energy related developments. The points of departure are very different in the two countries. Swedish local authorities are much more independent than UK ones, especially through the ownership of local energy companies. Yet, UK local authorities are relatively active in the climate change domain, at least in terms of drawing up response strategies, which they see as an opportunity for reasserting their role, after a long period of erosion of their powers. Furthermore, there is more scope for action in the UK, as in Sweden many potential measures, especially in the energy efficiency field, have already been taken. However, in both countries climate change is only a relatively marginal area of local environmental policy making and the political will, as well as the financial resources, for more radical measures are often absent. (Author)

Price caps and price floors in climate policy: a quantitative assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Philibert, Cedric

2008-12-15

This study assesses the long-term economic and environmental effects of introducing price caps and price floors in hypothetical climate change mitigation architecture, which aims to reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. Based on abatement costs in IPCC and IEA reports, this quantitative analysis confirms what qualitative analyses have already suggested: introducing price caps could significantly reduce economic uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from unpredictable economic growth and energy prices, and ultimately unabated emission trends. In addition, the development of abatement technologies is uncertain. With price caps, the expected costs could be reduced by about 50% and the uncertainty on economic costs could be one order of magnitude lower. Reducing economic uncertainties may spur the adoption of more ambitious policies by helping to alleviate policy makers' concerns of economic risks. Meanwhile, price floors would reduce the level of emissions beyond the objective if the abatement costs ended up lower than forecasted. If caps and floors are commensurate with the ambition of the policy pursued and combined with slightly tightened emission objectives, climatic results could be on average similar to those achieved with 'straight' objectives (i.e. with no cost-containment mechanism). (auth)

Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques [Institut Francais des Relations Internationales - Ifri, 27 rue de la Procession, 75740 Paris Cedex 15 (France); Andrews-Speed, Philip [Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland (United Kingdom); Yishan, Xia; Dezhao, Chen [China Institute of International Studies (China)

2011-06-15

's energy sector. Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

Chinese Climate Policy - Institutions and Intent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramsay, William C.; Lesourne, Jacques; Andrews-Speed, Philip; Yishan, Xia; Dezhao, Chen

2011-06-01

. Not surprisingly, institutions and practices continue to reflect millennia of Chinese history, which in some measure focused on nurturing the authority of an emperor. Students of China, who have long recognized its 'command and control' economy, are now aware of the limits of those concepts and the consequences of a bureaucratic hierarchy living in a sometimes conflicted condominium with the Communist Party, even as the economy surges on. The second study seeks to answer the questions: What are the economic and strategic drivers of Chinese energy policy? How does China plan to manage its increasing reliance on foreign sources of oil, gas and now coal? How will these drivers shape the guiding principles of Chinese national companies and their relations with international operators and foreign sources of energy resources? How does China define and shape its international diplomacy and practices in order to succeed in its quest to secure access to upstream oil, gas, coal and uranium - just to mention the fuels? The third study explores the Chinese approach to climate change. The Chinese have long been victims of their own internal deserts and know only too well the challenges that the power of nature imposes on their society. The recent spectacular growth of the Chinese economy has left China with a plethora of weeping environmental wounds. While these are increasingly urgent short-term challenges, Chinese leaders are only too aware that, in the longer term, under any probable climate change scenario, China is a loser

A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manfred A. Lange

2013-11-01

Full Text Available A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA, the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the next. Our approach was applied to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield and, hence, to isolate the effect of the observed climate change between 1961 and 2006 on three widely crops grown in three Mediterranean countries—namely wheat, corn and potato—using national-level crop yield observations’ time-series. Obtained results show that the proposed methodology provides us with a ground basis to improve substantially our understanding of crop yield response to climate change at a scale that is relevant to large-scale estimations of agricultural production and to food security analyses; and therefore to reduce uncertainties in estimations of potential climate change effects on agricultural production. Furthermore, a comparison of outputs of our methodology and FDA outputs yielded a difference in terms of maize production in Egypt, for example, that exceeds the production of some neighbouring countries.

European agriculture in 2020: long-term challenges, new public and private policies. Conference proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

This document reports the contributions and discussions of different sessions which addressed the relationship of agriculture with different issues: climate change, energy, water, food security, common agricultural policy and structural adjustments, multi-functionality, risk management, competition policy

Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

2003-01-01

A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

Climatic architecture: Situation, principles, establishment of technical policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brejon, P.

1994-01-01

Climatic architecture, despite the efforts of its protagonists, remains nearly marginal. Nevertheless, environmental awareness is gaining ground, whether through concern for the depletion of natural resources, for global warming or for CO 2 emissions. It is only by establishing technical policies, making an effort in terms of training and research and distributing knowledge to all those in the business that the principles of climatic architecture will actually be applied in the field. Resources are available to make climatic architecture a fundamental concern in the design of environmentally friendly buildings. (author). 6 refs, 3 tabs

Changing climate, changing frames

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions: control targets and long term policy strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haites, E.

1993-01-01

A number of countries have unilaterally committed themselves to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. Other countries have resisted such commitments; they prefer to engage in further climate research to determine the extent of any emissions reduction that may be necessary before committing themselves to significant costs to implement controls. This paper examines the costs of alternative policies including immediate action to limit emissions and climate research followed by controls if necessary. (Author)

Policy in Transition. New Framework for Russia's Climate Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kotov, V.

2002-07-01

In 2000, Russia entered the second round of radical reforms of its economic and political system. These changes affect the institutions of the macro- and microeconomic policy, of the energy policy, as well as the institutions of the climate policy. Thus, the framework is currently being built in Russia within which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are being and will be implemented. Success, or failure, in Russia's interactions with the international community in implementation of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol would depend, particularly, on whether it would be able to establish renovated climate policy institutions in the nearest future. Main provisions of the Kyoto Protocol open good perspectives for the climate policy of Russia. For these favourable perspectives to become a reality, Russia will have to accomplish quite a lot at the domestic, national level. Here, Russia is facing some serious problems. Among them are recently emerged problems with ratification of Kyoto Protocol

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Climate change and foreign policy : an exploration of options for greater integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drexhage, J.; Murphy, D.; Brown, O.; Cosbey, A.; Dickey, P.; Parry, J.-E.; Van Ham, J.; Tarasofsky, R.; Darkin, B.

2007-01-01

Climate change is a global challenge and one of biggest challenges of this century. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires new thinking in foreign policy. This paper discussed the results of a research study that examined the role of foreign policy in fostering a more effective international response to the challenge of climate change. The scope involved an examination of instruments relevant to Danish foreign policy. The paper first identified the climate change challenge and discussed international diplomacy and relations. Energy security and investment was discussed in terms of the impact of energy security on climate change efforts and opportunities for integration. Other areas where critical issues and opportunities for integration were offered include international peace and security; trade and investment; and development cooperation. The paper made several recommendations in these areas in addition to diplomatic networking. The study concluded that foreign policy can further the climate change agenda in a number of areas in diplomacy and foreign relations within the European Union, transatlantic relations, Arctic issues and United Nations affairs. This includes better integration of climate change into the European Union's common foreign and security policy, the Lisbon Agenda, and incorporating climate change in the work of a wide range of bodies under the United Nations. refs., figs

Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

kaufman, D.S.; Vinther, Bo Møllesøe

2009-01-01

continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused...

Contextualising institutional complementarity. : How long-term unemployment depends on active labour market policies, employment protection legislation and the economic climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benda, L; F. Koster (Ferry); R.J. van der Veen (Romke)

2018-01-01

textabstractThis study investigated if and how active labour market policies (ALMPs) and employment protection interact with each other in light of long‐term unemployment reduction. We argue that how well the interaction between both labour market institutions reduces long‐term unemployment depends

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

Impact of the nuclear power and climate change policies on different countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arzani, K.; Mirzahosseini, A.; Khanfekr, A.

2008-01-01

At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that-given the right framework conditions - some architectures, like 'cap and trade' regimes or 'policies and measures' can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility

People's opinion of climate policy. Popular support for climate policy alternatives in Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marino, Sjoevaag Marit; Bjoerge, Nils Erik; Ericson, Torgeir; Garnaasjordet, Per Arild; Karlsen, Haakon T.; Randers; Joergen; Rees, Daniel

2012-07-01

How can we evaluate whether national climate policies are sufficient? Which moral principles should be the basis of our policy efforts? The answers to these questions are central to the development of any climate policy framework, but not always made explicit in daily political discourse. In this article we seek to redress this imbalance through a survey of popular opinion in Norway.(Author)

Explaining citizens’ perceptions of international climate-policy relevance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schleich, Joachim; Faure, Corinne

2017-01-01

This paper empirically analyses the antecedents of citizens’ perceptions of the relevance of international climate policy. Its use of representative surveys in the USA, China and Germany controls for different environmental attitudes and socio-economic factors between countries. The findings of the micro-econometric analysis suggest that the perceived relevance of international climate policy is positively affected by its perceived effectiveness, approval of the key topics discussed at international climate conferences, and environmental attitudes, but is not affected by perceived procedural justice. A higher level of perceived trust in international climate policy was positively related to perceived relevance in the USA and in China, but not in Germany. Citizens who felt that they were well informed and that their position was represented at climate summits were more likely to perceive international climate policy as relevant in China in particular. Generally, the results show only weak evidence of socio-demographic effects. - Highlights: • Perceptions of climate-policy relevance increase with perceptions of effectiveness. • In China and the USA, trust increases perceptions of climate-policy relevance. • Environmental attitudes are related to perceptions of climate-policy relevance. • In China, well-informed citizens perceive climate policy as more relevant. • Socio-demographics only weakly affect perceptions of climate-policy relevance.

Long-term monitoring of an amphibian community after a climate change- and infectious disease-driven species extirpation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosch, Jaime; Fernández-Beaskoetxea, Saioa; Garner, Trenton W J; Carrascal, Luis María

2018-02-15

Infectious disease and climate change are considered major threats to biodiversity and act as drivers behind the global amphibian decline. This is, to a large extent, based on short-term studies that are designed to detect the immediate and strongest biodiversity responses to a threatening process. What few long-term studies are available, although typically focused on single species, report outcomes that often diverge significantly from the short-term species responses. Here, we report the results of an 18-year survey of an amphibian community exposed to both climate warming and the emergence of lethal chytridiomycosis. Our study shows that the impacts of infectious disease are ongoing but restricted to two out of nine species that form the community, despite the fact all species can become infected with the fungus. Climate warming appears to be affecting four out of the nine species, but the response of three of these is an increase in abundance. Our study supports a decreasing role of infectious disease on the community, and an increasing and currently positive effect of climate warming. We caution that if the warming trends continue, the net positive effect will turn negative as amphibian breeding habitat becomes unavailable as water bodies dry, a pattern that already may be underway. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transforming long-term care pain management in north america: the policy-clinical interface.

Science.gov (United States)

Hadjistavropoulos, Thomas; Marchildon, Gregory P; Fine, Perry G; Herr, Keela; Palley, Howard A; Kaasalainen, Sharon; Béland, François

2009-04-01

The undertreatment of pain in older adults who reside in long-term care (LTC) facilities has been well documented, leading to clinical guideline development and professional educational programs designed to foster better pain assessment and management in this population. Despite these efforts, little improvement has occurred, and we postulate that focused attention to public policy and cost implications of systemic change is required to create positive pain-related outcomes. Our goal was to outline feasible and cost-effective clinical and public policy recommendations designed to address the undermanagement of pain in LTC facilities. We arranged a 2-day consensus meeting of prominent United States and Canadian pain and public policy experts. An initial document describing the problem of pain undermanagement in LTC was developed and circulated prior to the meeting. Participants were also asked to respond to a list of relevant questions before arriving. Following formal presentations of a variety of proposals and extensive discussion among clinicians and policy experts, a set of recommendations was developed. We outline key elements of a transformational model of pain management in LTC for the United States and Canada. Consistent with previously formulated clinical guidelines but with attention to readily implementable public policy change in both countries, this transformational model of LTC has important implications for LTC managers and policy makers as well as major quality of life implications for LTC residents.

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2012-01-01

Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

Targets for Global Climate Policy: An Overview

OpenAIRE

Richard S.J. Tol

2012-01-01

A survey of the economic impact of climate change and the marginal damage costs shows that carbon dioxide emissions are a negative externality. The estimated Pigou tax and its growth rate are too low to justify the climate policy targets set by political leaders. A lower discount rate or greater concern for the global distribution of income would justify more stringent climate policy, but would imply an overhaul of other public policy. Catastrophic risk justifies more stringent climate policy...

Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Ansah, John P; Matchar, David B; Malhotra, Rahul; Love, Sean R; Liu, Chang; Do, Young

2016-03-23

Using Singapore as a case study, this paper aims to understand the effects of the current long-term care policy and various alternative policy options on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability. A model of the long-term care system in Singapore was developed using System Dynamics methodology. Under the current long-term care policy, by 2030, 6.9 percent of primary informal family caregivers (0.34 percent of the domestic labor supply) are expected to withdraw from the labor market. Alternative policy options reduce primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal; however, the number of workers required to scale up long-term care services is greater than the number of caregivers who can be expected to return to the labor market. Policymakers may face a dilemma between admitting more foreign workers to provide long-term care services and depending on primary informal family caregivers.

Putting Climate Change Adaptation in the Development Mainstream. Policy Brief

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agrawala, S.; Paris, R.

2005-03-01

Climate change poses a serious challenge to social and economic development. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable because their economies are generally more dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, and because they are less able to cope with the impacts of climate change. How development occurs has implications, in turn, for climate change and for the vulnerability of societies to its impacts. Climate change adaptation needs to be brought into the mainstream of economic policies, development projects, and international aid efforts. Considerable analytical work has been done on how development can be made climate-friendly in terms of helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change, although implementation remains a challenge. Much less attention has been paid to how development can be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In a narrow engineering sense, this could involve taking climate changes into account in the siting and design of bridges and other infrastructure. At a policy level, it could involve considering the implications of climate change on a variety of development activities including poverty reduction, sectoral development, and natural resource management. Bridging the gap between the climate change adaptation and development communities, however, is not easy. The two communities have different priorities, often operate on different time and space scales, and do not necessarily 'speak the same language'. Specific information is therefore needed on the significance of climate change for development activities along with operational guidance on how best to adapt to its impacts, within the context of other pressing social priorities. This Policy Brief looks at how far current development policies and programmes are taking climate change risks into account, as well as at ways to improve the 'mainstreaming' of adaptation to climate change in development planning and assistance

The application of the GWP concept in climate policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen LHJM; Fransen W; LLO; KNMI

1997-01-01

Both the scientific aspects of the Global Warming Potential concept (GWP) and its use in climate policy are analysed and discussed in this document. GWPs are indexed numbers to allow assessment of the relative contribution of emissions of long-living greenhouse gases to the enhancement of the

Long-term solar activity and its implications to the heliosphere, geomagnetic activity, and the Earth’s climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanskanen Eija

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The Sun’s long-term magnetic variability is the primary driver of space climate. This variability is manifested not only in the long-observed and dramatic change of magnetic fields on the solar surface, but also in the changing solar radiative output across all wavelengths. The Sun’s magnetic variability also modulates the particulate and magnetic fluxes in the heliosphere, which determine the interplanetary conditions and impose significant electromagnetic forces and effects upon planetary atmospheres. All these effects due to the changing solar magnetic fields are also relevant for planetary climates, including the climate of the Earth. The ultimate cause of solar variability, at time scales much shorter than stellar evolutionary time scales, i.e., at decadal to centennial and, maybe, even millennial or longer scales, has its origin in the solar dynamo mechanism. Therefore, in order to better understand the origin of space climate, one must analyze different proxies of solar magnetic variability and develop models of the solar dynamo mechanism that correctly produce the observed properties of the magnetic fields. This Preface summarizes the most important findings of the papers of this Special Issue, most of which were presented in the Space Climate-4 Symposium organized in 2011 in Goa, India.

Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

Science.gov (United States)

Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

2012-01-01

Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

Background document for climate change policy options in Northern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newton, J.

2001-01-01

This paper presents an initial compilation of background material in support of the development of climate change policy options for the jurisdictions of Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut in Northern Canada. While Northern Canada contributes only a small fraction of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, scientists forecast changes in average annual temperatures to be among the highest in the world. The Northern Climate Exchange at Yukon College was created in March 2001 to address this issue and to help guide northerners in what they can do now and in the future. This paper includes an annotated bibliography of a total of 75 international, national, and territorial policy documents and major reference documents relevant to climate change issues. It is meant to be a resource for researchers, policy analysts and government officials developing policy options and implementing programs for Northern Canada. While each of the three northern territories are at a different stage in the evolution of their climate change activities, they are all striving to develop strategies and action plans and to initiate the implementation of those plans. It is recognized that many long-standing programs and initiatives, particularly in the areas of energy efficiency and alternate energy, will help northern jurisdictions address their climate change objectives. The three territories are cooperating to deliver their message to the federal government. 75 refs., 4 figs

The Long-Term Impact of Admission Policies: A Comparative Study of Two Emergent Research Institutions in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Crisp, Gloria; Horn, Catherine; Dizinno, Gerry; Barlow, Libby

2013-01-01

The present study explored the long-term impact of admission policies at two aspiring research institutions in Texas. Six years of longitudinal institutional data were analyzed for all full-time first time in college undergraduate students at both universities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to identify relationships and…

How the global and national levels interrelate in climate policymaking: Foreign Policy Analysis and the case of Carbon Capture Storage in Norway's foreign policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roettereng, Jo-Kristian Straete

2016-01-01

States struggle to develop adequate climate change mitigation policies, especially when national energy interests conflict with collective environmental concerns. It is therefore crucial to understand how viable solutions may find political support on these terms. As one such case, this paper examines Norway's explicit foreign policy to promote Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a mitigation measure. I suggest that a Foreign Policy Analysis framework with a norm-centered constructivist focus allows for new insights into how climate policies function as balancing strategies between external normative pressures and important domestic concerns. It reveals how Norway's CCS policy represents an extraordinary effort to bridge seemingly contradictory agendas. The Norwegian CCS case highlights how a state may engage in innovative foreign political engineering to promote solutions to its international climate commitments on terms that fit national energy needs. It shows that climate political success may depend on successfully linking the international and domestic levels by simultaneously appealing to established norms within each system. - Highlights: • A Foreign Policy Analysis framework is used to explain foreign policy in the energy-climate domain. • Norway's external strategy to promote CCS globally is traced and explained. • Both external and domestic factors influenced Norway's CCS policymaking. • Both ideational and material factors were important to legitimize this strategy.

International climate policy : consequences for shipping

OpenAIRE

Mæstad, Ottar; Evensen, Annika Jaersen; Mathiesen, Lars; Olsen, Kristian

2000-01-01

This report summarises the main results from the project Norwegian and international climate policy consequences for shipping. The aim of the project has been to shed light on how climate policies might affect shipping, both from the cost side and from the demand side. The project has been divided into three sub-projects, investigating the consequences of climate policies for 1. Optimal shipping operations and management 2. The competitiveness of shipping relative to land transport 3. The tra...

Ca isotopes, chemical weathering, and geomorphic controls on long-term climate

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, J.; Jacobson, A. D.; Holmden, C. E.; Craw, D.

2009-12-01

Calcium isotope geochemistry (δ44Ca) offers a unique opportunity to directly quantify proportions of riverine Ca originating from silicate versus carbonate weathering, which is essential for understanding how geomorphic processes affecting landscape evolution, such as tectonic uplift and glaciation, influence the long-term cycling of atmospheric CO2. We measured the elemental and δ44Ca chemistry of river and rock samples from the New Zealand Southern Alps. In combination with our geochemical data, we used runoff and suspended sediment fluxes to elucidate relationships between chemical weathering, mechanical erosion, and long-term climate. The S. Alps have uniform bedrock chemistry but significant tectonic and climatic gradients. West of the main topographic divide, watersheds drain schist and experience high runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. East of the main divide, watersheds drain greywacke or schist and experience lower runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. Glaciated watersheds with high erosion rates are present throughout the mountain range. Both schist and greywacke contain up to 3% metamorphic and hydrothermal calcite. Waters exhibit two-component mixing between calcite and silicate end-members when plotted as δ44Ca versus Ca/Sr. Scatter about the mixing curve is generally smaller than the analytical uncertainty of the measurements and likely reflects variability of the end-member compositions rather than fractionation. We used the mixing relationships to calculate percentages of Ca from silicate weathering. Rivers draining greywacke average 27.6% of Ca from silicate weathering with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 41.8 and 19.5%, respectively. Rivers draining schist average 9.8% with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 17.7 and 3.9%, respectively. Although Ca fluxes are larger west of the main divide where erosion and runoff are higher, the percentage of Ca from silicate weathering is smaller. Hence, long-term atmospheric CO2

ClimaDat: A long-term network to study at different scales climatic processes and interactions between climatic compartments

Science.gov (United States)

Morgui, Josep Anton; Agueda, Alba; Batet, Oscar; Curcoll, Roger; Ealo, Marina; Grossi, Claudia; Occhipinti, Paola; Sánchez-García, Laura; Arias, Rosa; Rodó, Xavi

2013-04-01

ClimaDat (www.climadat.es) is a pioneer project of the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) in collaboration with and funded by "la Caixa" Foundation. This project aims at studying the interactions between climate and ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales. The ClimaDat project consists of a network of eight long-term observatory stations distributed over Spain, installed at natural and remote areas, and covering different climatic domains (e.g. Mediterranean, Atlantic, subtropics) and natural systems (e.g. delta, karsts, high mountain areas). Data obtained in the ClimaDat network will help us to understand how ecosystems are influenced by and eventually might feedback different processes in the climate system. The point of focus of these studies will be taken into account regional-and-local conditions to understand climatic global scale eventsThe data gathered will be used to study the behavior of the global element cycles and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The network is expected to offer near real-time (NRT) data free for the scientific community. Instrumentation installed at these stations mainly consists of: CO2, CH4, H2O, CO, N2O, SF6 and 222Rn analyzers, isotopic CO2, CH4 and H2O analyzers, meteorological sensors, eddy covariance equipment, four-component radiometers, soil moisture and temperature sensors, and sap flow meters. Each station may have a more focused subset of all this equipment, depending on the specific characteristics of the site. Instrumentation selected for this network has been chosen to comply with standards established in international research infrastructure projects, such as ICOS (http://www.icos-infrastructure.eu/home) or InGOS (http://www.ingos-infrastructure.eu/). Preliminary data time-series of greenhouse gases concentrations and meteorological variables are presented in this study for three currently operational ClimaDat stations: the Natural Park of the Ebre Delta (lat 40.75° N - long 0.79° E), the

Issues in International Climate Policy: Theory and Policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ierland, van E.C.; Gupta, J.; Kok, M.T.J.

2003-01-01

Climate change is currently at the center of scientific and political debate, and the need for well-designed international climate policies is widely recognized. Despite this, the complexity of both the climate change problem and the international negotiation process has resulted in a large number

How does climate influence xylem morphogenesis over the growing season? Insights from long-term intra-ring anatomy in Picea abies.

Science.gov (United States)

Castagneri, Daniele; Fonti, Patrick; von Arx, Georg; Carrer, Marco

2017-04-01

During the growing season, the cambium of conifer trees produces successive rows of xylem cells, the tracheids, that sequentially pass through the phases of enlargement and secondary wall thickening before dying and becoming functional. Climate variability can strongly influence the kinetics of morphogenetic processes, eventually affecting tracheid shape and size. This study investigates xylem anatomical structure in the stem of Picea abies to retrospectively infer how, in the long term, climate affects the processes of cell enlargement and wall thickening. Tracheid anatomical traits related to the phases of enlargement (diameter) and wall thickening (wall thickness) were innovatively inspected at the intra-ring level on 87-year-long tree-ring series in Picea abies trees along a 900 m elevation gradient in the Italian Alps. Anatomical traits in ten successive tree-ring sectors were related to daily temperature and precipitation data using running correlations. Close to the altitudinal tree limit, low early-summer temperature negatively affected cell enlargement. At lower elevation, water availability in early summer was positively related to cell diameter. The timing of these relationships shifted forward by about 20 (high elevation) to 40 (low elevation) d from the first to the last tracheids in the ring. Cell wall thickening was affected by climate in a different period in the season. In particular, wall thickness of late-formed tracheids was strongly positively related to August-September temperature at high elevation. Morphogenesis of tracheids sequentially formed in the growing season is influenced by climate conditions in successive periods. The distinct climate impacts on cell enlargement and wall thickening indicate that different morphogenetic mechanisms are responsible for different tracheid traits. Our approach of long-term and high-resolution analysis of xylem anatomy can support and extend short-term xylogenesis observations, and increase our

Climate change and protected area policy and planning in Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scott, D. [Canada Research Chairs, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Lemieux, C. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography

2005-10-01

Challenges concerning climate change for agencies involved the management of Canada's protected areas were reviewed. Most protected areas have been designed to represent specific natural features, species and ecological communities, and are the most common and most important strategy for biodiversity conservation. It remains undecided whether adaptation should be a matter of responding to climate change as it manifests, or whether initiatives should be taken in advance to anticipate the potential effects of climate change. There are growing concerns that emergency adaptation will be less effective and more costly than anticipatory or precautionary adaptation over the long-term. Species extinction could result. It was noted that the northward shift of species from the United States will meet Parks Canada's existing definition of alien species in need of management interventions. The conservation objectives of individual protected areas would also be affected by projected biome and species changes, particularly as each of Canada's national parks is responsible for protecting ecosystems representative of the natural region within which it is located. All 6 vegetation change scenarios examined in a recent study projected the eventual loss of boreal forest in the Prince Albert National Park, suggesting that the park's current mandate to protect the ecological integrity of the area would no longer be viable. An overview of the policy and planning implications of climate change for protected areas in Canada was presented using examples from national and provincial park systems. A portfolio of climate change adaptation options in conservation literature was reviewed. Recommended strategies included system planning and policy development; active, adaptive ecosystem management; research and monitoring; and capacity building and awareness. It was concluded that governments will need to make major new investments in protected area establishment, personnel

Long term energy and emission implications of a global shift to electricity-based public rail transportation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Kim, Son H.

2015-01-01

With high reliance on light-duty vehicles in the present, the future of global transportation system is also geared towards private modes, which has significant energy and emission implications. Public transportation has been argued as an alternative strategy for meeting the rising transportation demands of the growing world, especially the poor, in a sustainable and energy efficient way. The present study analyzes an important yet under-researched question – what are the long-term energy and emission implications of an electric rail based passenger transportation system for meeting both long and short distance passenter transportation needs? We analyze a suite of electric rail share scenarios with and without climate policy. In the reference scenario, the transportation system will evolve towards dominance of fossil based light-duty vehicles. We find that an electric rail policy is more successful than an economy wide climate policy in reducing transport sector energy demand and emissions. Economy wide emissions however can only be reduced through a broader climate policy, the cost of which can be reduced by hundreds of billions of dollars across the century when implemented in combination with the transport sector focused electric rail policy. Moreover, higher share of electric rail enhances energy security for oil importing nations and reduces vehicular congestion and road infrastructure requirement as well. -- Highlights: •Economy wide carbon price policy will have little impact on transportation emissions. •Focused energy and emission mitigation policies required for transportation sector. •Large global shift towards electric rail based public transport is one possible option. •Transport sector focused policy will have marginal impact on total global emissions. •A combined transport sector and economy wide policy can reduce costs significantly

Geoethical issues in long-term assessment of geohazards and related mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto

2015-04-01

Long-term assessment of large-impact and relatively (or very) infrequent geohazards like earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions is nowadays a common practice for geoscientists and many groups have been and are involved in producing global and regional hazard maps in response of an increasing demand of the society. Though the societal needs are the basic motivations for such studies, often this aspect is not pondered enough and a lack of communication between geoscientists and the society might be a serious limit to the effective exploitation of the hazard assessment products and to the development of adequate mitigation policies. This paper is an analysis of the role of geoscientists in the process of the production of long-term assessments of dangerous natural phenomena (such as mapping of seismic, tsunami and volcanic hazards), with special emphasis given to the role of communicators and disseminators (with respect to the general public, to authorities, to restricted specialized audiences…), but also of providers of active support to the planners who should be given key elements for making decision. Geoethics imposes geoscientists to take clear and full responsibilities on the products resulting from their assessments, but also to be aware that these products are valuable insofar they are scientifically sound, known, understandable, and utilizable by a wide universe of users.

Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?

Science.gov (United States)

Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani

2012-01-01

At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level.

Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Cho

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

World energy, technology and climate policy outlook 2030. WETO 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Starting from a set of clear key assumptions on economic activity, population and hydrocarbon resources, WETO describes in detail scenarios for the evolution of World and European energy systems, power generation technologies and impacts of climate change policy in the main world regions or countries.It presents a coherent framework to analyse the energy, technology and environment trends and issues over the period to 2030, focusing on Europe in a world context. Three of the key results of this work are: (1) in a Reference scenario, i.e.if no strong specific policy initiatives and measures are taken, world CO2 emissions are expected to double in 2030 and, with a share of 90%, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy system; (2) the great majority of the increase in oil production will come from OPEC countries and the EU will rely predominantly on natural gas imported from the CIS; and (3) as the largest growing energy demand and CO2 emissions originate from developing countries (mainly China and India), Europe will have to intensify its co-operation, particularly in terms of transfer of technologies. The analysis of long-term scenarios and a particular attention to the energy world context, is an important element for efficient energy, technology and environment policies towards a sustainable world

Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

Science.gov (United States)

Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

2010-05-01

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission

The biological consequences of climate changes: An ecological and economic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batie, S.S.; Shugart, H.H.

1991-01-01

The following subject areas are covered: (1) the level of climate change; (2) impacts of climate change on ecological systems (short-term (decadal), medium term (centenary), and long-term (millennial) effects); and (3) ecological consequences of climate change - evaluating the social costs (the problem of valuing consequences, intergenerational problem, and safe minimum standard strategies and policies)

Canadian energy and climate policies: A SWOT analysis in search of federal/provincial coherence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fertel, Camille; Bahn, Olivier; Vaillancourt, Kathleen; Waaub, Jean-Philippe

2013-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of Canadian energy and climate policies in terms of the coherence between federal and provincial/territorial strategies. After briefly describing the institutional, energy, and climate contexts, we perform a SWOT analysis on the themes of energy security, energy efficiency, and technology and innovation. Within this analytical framework, we discuss the coherence of federal and provincial policies and of energy and climate policies. Our analysis shows that there is a lack of consistency in the Canadian energy and climate strategies beyond the application of market principles. Furthermore, in certain sectors, the Canadian approach amounts to an amalgam of decisions made at a provincial level without cooperation with other provinces or with the federal government. One way to improve policy coherence would be to increase the cooperation between the different jurisdictions by using a combination of policy tools and by relying on existing intergovernmental agencies. - Highlights: • We perform a SWOT analysis of the Canadian energy and climate policies. • We analyse policy coherence between federal and provincial/territorial strategies. • We show that a lack of coordination leads to a weak coherence among policies. • The absence of cooperation results in additional costs for Canada

Policy Uncertainty, Investment and Commitment Periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Today's investment decisions in key sectors such as energy, forestry or transport have significant impacts on the levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the coming decades. Given the economic and environmental long-term implications of capital investment and retirement, a climate mitigation regime should aim to encourage capital investment in climate-friendly technologies. Many factors affect technology choice and the timing of investment, including investor expectations about future prices and policies. Recent international discussions have focused on the importance of providing more certainty about future climate policy stringency. The design of commitment periods can play a role in creating this environment. This paper assesses how the length of commitment periods influences policy uncertainty and investment decisions. In particular, the paper analyses the relationship between commitment period length and near term investment decisions in climate friendly technology.

Covariation of climate and long-term erosion rates acrossa steep rainfall gradient on the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i

Science.gov (United States)

Ken Ferrier,; J. Taylor Perron,; Sujoy Mukhopadhyay,; Matt Rosener,; Stock, Jonathan; Slosberg, Michelle; Kimberly L. Huppert,

2013-01-01

Erosion of volcanic ocean islands creates dramatic landscapes, modulates Earth’s carbon cycle, and delivers sediment to coasts and reefs. Because many volcanic islands have large climate gradients and minimal variations in lithology and tectonic history, they are excellent natural laboratories for studying climatic effects on the evolution of topography. Despite concerns that modern sediment fluxes to island coasts may exceed long-term fluxes, little is known about how erosion rates and processes vary across island interiors, how erosion rates are influenced by the strong climate gradients on many islands, and how modern island erosion rates compare to long-term rates. Here, we present new measurements of erosion rates over 5 yr to 5 m.y. timescales on the Hawaiian island of Kaua‘i, across which mean annual precipitation ranges from 0.5 to 9.5 m/yr. Eroded rock volumes from basins across Kaua‘i indicate that million-year-scale erosion rates are correlated with modern mean annual precipitation and range from 8 to 335 t km–2 yr–1. In Kaua‘i’s Hanalei River basin, 3He concentrations in detrital olivines imply millennial-scale erosion rates of >126 to >390 t km–2 yr–1 from olivine-bearing hillslopes, while fluvial suspended sediment fluxes measured from 2004 to 2009 plus estimates of chemical and bed-load fluxes imply basin-averaged erosion rates of 545 ± 128 t km–2 yr–1. Mapping of landslide scars in satellite imagery of the Hanalei basin from 2004 and 2010 implies landslide-driven erosion rates of 30–47 t km–2 yr–1. These measurements imply that modern erosion rates in the Hanalei basin are no more than 2.3 ± 0.6 times faster than millennial-scale erosion rates, and, to the extent that modern precipitation patterns resemble long-term patterns, they are consistent with a link between precipitation rates and long-term erosion rates.

Sustainability of Long-term Care: Puzzling Tasks Ahead for Policy-Makers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilaria Mosca

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Background The sustainability of long-term care (LTC is a prominent policy priority in many Western countries. LTC is one of the most pressing fiscal issues for the growing population of elderly people in the European Union (EU Member States. Country recommendations regarding LTC are prominent under the EU’s European Semester. Methods This paper examines challenges related to the financial- and organizational sustainability of LTC systems in the EU. We combined a targeted literature review and a descriptive selected country analysis of: (1 public- and private funding; (2 informal care and externalities; and (3 the possible role of technology in increasing productivity. Countries were selected via purposive sampling to establish a cohort of country cases covering the spectrum of differences in LTC systems: public spending, private funding, informal care use, informal care support, and cash benefits. Results The aging of the population, the increasing gap between availability of informal care and demand for LTC, substantial market failures of private funding for LTC, and fiscal imbalances in some countries, have led to structural reforms and enduring pressures for LTC policy-makers across the EU. Our exploration of national policies illustrates different solutions that attempt to promote fairness while stimulating efficient delivery of services. Important steps must be taken to address the sustainability of LTC. First, countries should look deeper into the possibilities of complementing public- and private funding, as well as at addressing market failures of private funding. Second, informal care externalities with spill-over into neighboring policy areas, the labor force, and formal LTC workers, should be properly addressed. Thirdly, innovations in LTC services should be stimulated to increase productivity through technology and process innovations, and to reduce costs. Conclusion The analysis shows why it is difficult for EU Member State

ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kessels, J.R.; Bakker, S.J.A.

2005-05-01

Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

Economy of climate policy. Criticism and alternatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

2002-01-01

The economy of climate policy is characterized by notions as cost-benefit analysis, optimal policy and optimal timing. It is argued that the use of such notions reflects an unjustified optimism with respect to the contribution of economic science to the discussion on climate policy. The complexity of the biosphere and the uncertainty about climatic change, as well as their socio-economic consequences, are extensive. Another economic approach of the climate problem is suggested, based on complexity and historical justice. 12 refs [nl

Adaptive policy responses to climate change scenarios in the musi catchment, India

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Davidson, Brian; George, Biju; Malano, Hector; Hellegers, Petra

2017-01-01

In India the stresses on water resource systems have increased, due in part to increased demand for scarce water supplies. Yet, what could be of greater concern is the potential long-run threats of climate change affecting supplies. Before thinking of a policy response to these long-run concerns,

Making the Climate Count: Climate Policy Integration and Coherence in Finland

OpenAIRE

Kivimaa, Paula; Mickwitz, Per

2009-01-01

Tackling climate change in Finland and other industrialised countries requires major changes in production processes and consumption patterns. These changes will not take place unless climate change becomes a crucial factor in general and sector-specific policy-making. In this report climate policy integration in Finland is studied at different levels of policy-making: at the national level, regionally in Kymenlakso and the Metropolitan Area, as well as in the city of Helsinki and the town of...

Point Climat no. 22 'Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is laying the initial foundations for a European agricultural climate policy'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foucherot, Claudine; Bellassen, Valentin

2012-01-01

Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Briefs' presents, in a few pages, hot topics in climate change policy. This issue addresses the following points: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has had a very small climate component since 1992. The recent inclusion of green payments and the climate risk management tools proposed for the CAP for the period beyond 2013 illustrate the European Commission's willingness to expand this climate component. Furthermore, there is little mention of the agricultural sector in the tools rolled out by the European climate policy, particularly those derived from the 2009 'Climate and Energy' Package. Therefore, even if this autumn's parliamentary debate results in the reform proposals being diluted, the post-2013 CAP could nevertheless become a principal tool for a common EU climate policy in the agricultural sector

Climate change policy is an energy problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, C.; Lightfoot, H.D.

1999-01-01

In an important respect the climate change (global warming) problem is an energy problem. Any policy aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require large amounts of carbon free energy as substitutes for fossil fuels. No conceivable rates of improvement in energy efficiency and/or changes in lifestyles will obviate the need for vast amounts of carbon free energy if GHG emissions are to be reduced and the atmospheric concentration of carbon eventually stabilized. Where will such large amounts of carbon free energy come from? The renewable energies (solar, wind, biomass) are dilute and enormously land-using. Their potential contribution is seemingly limited in a world in which competing demands for land for food production, living space, leisure activities, ecological preserve, and natural resource production are increasing. Nuclear energy is controversial (fission) or problematic (fusion). Fuel cells require hydrogen which must be produced using some other form of energy. Tapping the earth's mantle with its vast amount of geothermal energy may be a future possibility. The present limitations of existing alternatives to fossil fuels suggest climate change policy should focus to a greater extent on what 'can' be done, rather than the present emphasis on what 'should' be done. Once refocused, the aim of climate policy should be to spur a decades long search for and development of new carbon free energy sources and technologies capable of displacing fossil fuels and of eventually meeting the world's baseload energy requirements. (author)

Robustness of climate metrics under climate policy ambiguity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekholm, Tommi; Lindroos, Tomi J.; Savolainen, Ilkka

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We assess the economic impacts of using different climate metrics. • The setting is cost-efficient scenarios for three interpretations of the 2C target. • With each target setting, the optimal metric is different. • Therefore policy ambiguity prevents the selection of an optimal metric. • Robust metric values that perform well with multiple policy targets however exist. -- Abstract: A wide array of alternatives has been proposed as the common metrics with which to compare the climate impacts of different emission types. Different physical and economic metrics and their parameterizations give diverse weights between e.g. CH 4 and CO 2 , and fixing the metric from one perspective makes it sub-optimal from another. As the aims of global climate policy involve some degree of ambiguity, it is not possible to determine a metric that would be optimal and consistent with all policy aims. This paper evaluates the cost implications of using predetermined metrics in cost-efficient mitigation scenarios. Three formulations of the 2 °C target, including both deterministic and stochastic approaches, shared a wide range of metric values for CH 4 with which the mitigation costs are only slightly above the cost-optimal levels. Therefore, although ambiguity in current policy might prevent us from selecting an optimal metric, it can be possible to select robust metric values that perform well with multiple policy targets

Long term acroecosystem research in the Southern Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Jean L. Steiner; Patrick J. Starks; Jurgen Garbrecht; Daniel Moriasi; Paul Bartholomew; Jim Neel; Kenneth E. Turner; Brian Northup

2016-01-01

The Southern Plains (SP) site of the Long Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network is headquartered at the USDA-ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory (GRL) in El Reno, Oklahoma. The GRL was established in 1948. A long-term watershed and climate research program was established in the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in 1961 and in the Fort Cobb...

Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

2010-02-01

The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

Long-term energy planning with uncertain environmental performance metrics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, Simon C.; Djilali, Ned

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Environmental performance uncertainty considered in a long-term energy planning model. • Application to electricity generation planning in British Columbia. • Interactions with climate change mitigation and adaptation strategy are assessed. • Performance risk-hedging impacts the technology investment strategy. • Sensitivity of results to model formulation is discussed. - Abstract: Environmental performance (EP) uncertainties span a number of energy technology options, and pose planning risk when the energy system is subject to environmental constraints. This paper presents two approaches to integrating EP uncertainty into the long-term energy planning framework. The methodologies consider stochastic EP metrics across multiple energy technology options, and produce a development strategy that hedges against the risk of exceeding environmental targets. Both methods are compared within a case study of emission-constrained electricity generation planning in British Columbia, Canada. The analysis provides important insight into model formulation and the interactions with concurrent environmental policy uncertainties. EP risk is found to be particularly important in situations where environmental constraints become increasingly stringent. Model results indicate allocation of a modest risk premium in these situations can provide valuable hedging against EP risk

Long-Term Memory: A Natural Mechanism for the Clustering of Extreme Events and Anomalous Residual Times in Climate Records

Science.gov (United States)

Bunde, Armin; Eichner, Jan F.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Havlin, Shlomo

2005-01-01

We study the statistics of the return intervals between extreme events above a certain threshold in long-term persistent records. We find that the long-term memory leads (i)to a stretched exponential distribution of the return intervals, (ii)to a pronounced clustering of extreme events, and (iii)to an anomalous behavior of the mean residual time to the next event that depends on the history and increases with the elapsed time in a counterintuitive way. We present an analytical scaling approach and demonstrate that all these features can be seen in long climate records. The phenomena should also occur in heartbeat records, Internet traffic, and stock market volatility and have to be taken into account for an efficient risk evaluation.

Long term fluctuations of groundwater mine pollution in a sulfide mining district with dry Mediterranean climate: Implications for water resources management and remediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Caraballo, Manuel A; Macías, Francisco; Nieto, José Miguel; Ayora, Carlos

2016-01-01

Water resources management and restoration strategies, and subsequently ecological and human life quality, are highly influenced by the presence of short and long term cycles affecting the intensity of a targeted pollution. On this respect, a typical acid mine drainage (AMD) groundwater from a sulfide mining district with dry Mediterranean climate (Iberian Pyrite Belt, SW Spain) was studied to unravel the effect of long term weather changes in water flow rate and metal pollutants concentration. Three well differentiated polluting stages were observed and the specific geochemical, mineralogical and hydrological processes involved (pyrite and enclosing rocks dissolution, evaporitic salts precipitation-redisolution and pluviometric long term fluctuations) were discussed. Evidencing the importance of including longer background monitoring stage in AMD management and restoration strategies, the present study strongly advise a minimum 5-years period of AMD continuous monitoring previous to the design of any AMD remediation system in regions with dry Mediterranean climate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

2012-01-01

Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauricio Lima

Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

NUMO's approach for long-term safety assessment - 59404

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebashi, Takeshi; Kaku, Kenichi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko

2012-01-01

One of NUMO's policies for ensuring safety is staged and flexible project implementation and decision-making based on iterative confirmation of safety. The safety assessment takes the central role in multiple lines of reasoning and argumentation by providing a quantitative evaluation of long-term safety; a key aspect is uncertainty management. This paper presents NUMO's basic strategies for long-term safety assessment based on the above policy. NUMO's approach considering Japanese boundary conditions is demonstrated as a starting-point for evaluating the long-term safety of an actual site. In Japan, the Act on Final Disposal of Specified Radioactive Waste states that the siting process shall consist of three stages. The Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan (NUMO) is responsible for geological disposal of vitrified high-level waste and some types of TRU waste. NUMO has chosen to implement a volunteer approach to siting. NUMO decided to prepare the so-called 2010 technical report, which sets out three safety policies, one of which is staged project implementation and decision-making based on iterative confirmation of safety. Based on this policy, NUMO will gradually integrate relevant interdisciplinary knowledge to build a safety case when a formal volunteer application is received that would allow site investigations to be initiated. The safety assessment takes the central role in multiple lines of reasoning and argumentation by providing a quantitative evaluation of long-term safety; one of a key aspect is uncertainty management. This paper presents the basic strategies for NUMO's long-term safety assessment based on the above policy. In concrete terms, the common procedures involved in safety assessment are applied in a stepwise manner, based on integration of knowledge obtained from site investigations/evaluations and engineered measures. The results of the safety assessment are then reflected in the planning of site investigations and engineered

Economy of climatic change. From mitigation to adaptation policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rousset, N.

2012-01-01

Climate change adaptation policies are the subject of this thesis. It has been showed that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the response strategies construction are characteristic of a pollutionist approach. This approach led to envision the question of climate change as a classic pollution and environment issue. As a result, this approach has generated a double bias to the disadvantage of adaptation compared to mitigation policies: adaptation has been confined in a secondary and marginal role in climate policies structuring, and with an inoperative conceptual and methodological framework for its implementation. The thesis proposes a deconstruction of this climate change conceptualization. Moreover, the major limits that characterize mitigation policies call into question the predominance given to them in climate policies construction. The 'pollutionist' approach deconstruction allows at first to show that adaptation policies definition and operationalization need to go beyond (i) the standard analytic framework of climate policies and, (ii) the climate change conceptualization as a classic pollution and environment management issue. The thesis then argues that adaptation has to be integrated in development promoting policies, which means that adaptation needs to be conceptualized no longer as an ad hoc management of pollution effects issue, but as a development issue. Whether in the proper context of adaptation policies, or more largely of climate policies, the thesis leaves open the questions of the viability, but also of the organization and financing modalities, of a climate regime which fits within development promoting. (author)

An assessment of long-term overtopping risk and optimal termination time of dam under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Bau-Shian; You, Gene Jiing-Yun

2013-05-30

Reservoir management faces a wide range of new challenges resulting from the impact of climate change. One set of challenges arises from the non-stationary nature of hydrological conditions. Another crucial issue is watershed sedimentation, which can significantly influence the sustainability and safety of reservoirs. To address these concerns, this study developed a framework for the management of reservoir risk. An analytical conceptual model coupling physical governing relationships and economic tools was proposed, which was then applied to the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. We adopted a statistical representation of future hydrologic conditions with the assumption of time-variant moments and focused on evaluating the impact of an increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events caused by climate change and used a stochastic approach to quantify the risk factors. Our results confirm that this approach can be used to identify reservoir-related risks and generate appropriate options for strategy and policy. We determined that the major source of risk is the hydrological conditions, especially the extreme events. More severe intra-annual climatic change is much more dominant in the risk compared to inter-year trends. The influence of reservoir characteristics on risk is associated mainly with the availability of flood control capacity, but limited due to the limitation of its volume and potential to regulate the flow. Engineering may provide an option for mitigating the risk, but integrated, watershed-level approaches, such as providing systematic detention or land use management, are better suited to reducing the storm peak from a long-term perspective. With a critical increase in the risk of overtopping, a high probability of dam failure and corresponding losses may precipitate the need to retire or remove the facility. However, because the benefits and costs are both huge, the decision may be biased by a conservative attitude. The outcome of small

The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

McLachlan, J. S.

2011-12-01

The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Hartmann

2015-04-01

Full Text Available EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these EU networks have on the adaptive capacity in cities. This paper uses two Dutch cities as an empirical base to evaluate the influence of two EU climate adaptation projects on both the experience of local public officials and the adaptive capacity in the respective cities. The main conclusion is that EU climate adaptation projects do not automatically lead to an increased adaptive capacity in the cities involved. This is due to the political opportunistic use of EU funding, which hampers the implementation of climate adaptation policies. Furthermore, these EU projects draw attention away from local network building focused on the development and implementation of climate adaptation policies. These factors have a negative cumulative impact on the performance of these transnational policy networks at the adaptive capacity level in the cities involved. Therefore, in order to strengthen the adaptive capacity in today’s European cities, a context-specific, integrative approach in urban planning is needed at all spatial levels. Hence, policy entrepreneurs should aim to create linkage between the issues in the transnational city network and the concerns in local politics and local networks.

[The Development of Long-Term Care Policies and the Impact on Nursing].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shiao-Chi; Tsai, Yin-Yin; Yeh, Shin-Ting

2015-10-01

The government must reform and enhance current medical and long-term care services in order to respond effectively to societal ageing and labor shortage trends and to ensure sustainable operations. The post-acute care system should be reoriented on the home and community instead of the hospital. The Long Term Care Service Act integrates long-term care services that were previously dispersed amongst different departments, sets up a long-term care development fund, and improves the quality and allocation of long-term care services. Moreover, the Long Term Care Insurance Act will implement a bundle payment system to assist disabled families. The integration of automation and information technology will make long-term care more efficient. Although nurses are more skilled at elderly care and counseling than other community care professionals, nurses generally lack training in business management. Home and community-based services thus require better-trained manpower, opportunities to set care agents, and opportunities to offer flexible caring jobs. Therefore, nurses should strengthen their capabilities in post-acute care, business management, cooperation, and coordination.

Ecological public health and climate change policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, George P

2010-01-01

The fact that health and disease are products of a complex interaction of factors has long been recognized in public health circles. More recently, the term 'ecological public health' has been used to characterize an era underpinned by the paradigm that, when it comes to health and well-being, 'everything matters'. The challenge for policy makers is one of navigating this complexity to deliver better health and greater equality in health. Recent work in Scotland has been concerned to develop a strategic approach to environment and health. This seeks to embrace complexity within that agenda and recognize a more subtle relationship between health and place but remain practical and relevant to a more traditional hazard-focused environmental health approach. The Good Places, Better Health initiative is underpinned by a new problem-framing approach using a conceptual model developed for that purpose. This requires consideration of a wider social, behavioural etc, context. The approach is also used to configure the core systems of the strategy which gather relevant intelligence, subject it to a process of evaluation and direct its outputs to a broad policy constituency extending beyond health and environment. This paper highlights that an approach, conceived and developed to deliver better health and greater equality in health through action on physical environment, also speaks to a wider public health agenda. Specifically it offers a way to help bridge a gap between paradigm and policy in public health. The author considers that with development, a systems-based approach with close attention to problem-framing/situational modelling may prove useful in orchestrating what is a necessarily complex policy response to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

The carbon rent economics of climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalkuhl, Matthias; Brecha, Robert J.

2013-01-01

By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. We assess whether and how owners of oil, gas and coal can be compensated by a carbon permit grandfathering rule. One important finding is that reducing (cumulative) fossil resource use could actually increase scarcity rents and benefit fossil resource owners under a permit grandfathering rule. For our standard parameter setting overall scarcity rents under climate policy increase slightly. While low discount rates of resource owners imply higher rent losses due to climate policies, new developments of reserves or energy efficiency improvements could more than double scarcity rents under climate policy. Another important implication is that agents receiving the climate rent (regulating institutions or owners of grandfathered permits) could influence the climate target such that rents are maximized, rather than to limit global warming to a socially desirable level. For our basic parameter setting, rents would be maximized at approximately 650 GtC emissions (50% of business-as-usual emissions) implying a virtual certainty of exceeding a 2 °C target and a likelihood of 4 °C warming. - Highlights: • Fossil resource rents form a substantial share of the global GDP. • Fossil resource owners can benefit from climate policy. • Climate targets might be influenced by rent-maximizing aspects

The institutional economics of market-based climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woerdman, E.

2005-01-01

The objective of this book is to analyze the institutional barriers to implementing market-based climate policy, as well as to provide some opportunities to overcome them. The approach is that of institutional economics, with special emphasis on political transaction costs and path dependence. Instead of rejecting the neoclassical approach, this book uses it where fruitful and shows when and why it is necessary to employ a new or neo-institutionalist approach. The result is that equity is considered next to efficiency, that the evolution and possible lock-in of both formal and informal climate institutions are studied, and that attention is paid to the politics and law of economic instruments for climate policy, including some new empirical analyses. The research topics of this book include the set-up costs of a permit trading system, the risk that credit trading becomes locked-in, the potential legal problem of grandfathering in terms of actional subsidies under WTO law or state aid under EC law, and the changing attitudes of various European officials towards restricting the use of the Kyoto Mechanisms

Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

2005-01-01

This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

Turkey's climate policy between ambition and reality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gieler, Wolfgang; Cetinyilmaz, Hakan

2015-01-01

This volume examines the Turkish climate policy and its main influencing factors. In what policy area, the priorities of Turkey between environmental, climate, and growth policies are to be located? What are the shaping factors of Turkish climate policy? What driving torques? In Turkish and international political science analyzes the subject has been previously treated only in basic approaches, so that the volume can be understood as a basic introduction to the Turkish climate policy. [de

The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

2011-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

Extent and agenda of emission reduction policies in front of climate risks: lessons learned from integrated models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambrosi, Ph.

2004-05-01

After having highlighted the main difficulties met when trying to take decisions on emission reductions (i.e. disequilibrium between short term action and long term dynamics, series of uncertainties, lack of a clear information on threats), this research aims at studying the extent and the agenda of CO 2 emission reduction efforts at a global scale. First, the author explores under various perspectives the relationship between the extent of climate change and the extent of its impacts and modes of analysis of climate policies. Then, he examines how different attitudes towards the climate risk are translated into recommendations for action which are obtained by always more complex models. In order to compare results, simulations are performed, based on optimal control models belonging to the RESPONSE family. Three different options or attitudes are then studied and assessed with RESPONSE: firstly, the uncertainty on impact and damage assessment is still too important to have confidence in present assessments; secondly, while being sceptical on damage assessment, more confidence is given to climate model results, and thirdly, an explicit representation of climate damages is used to introduce rationality issues in the debate on risks

Optimal climate change: economics and climate science policy histories (from heuristic to normative).

Science.gov (United States)

Randalls, Samuel

2011-01-01

Historical accounts of climate change science and policy have reflected rather infrequently upon the debates, discussions, and policy advice proffered by economists in the 1980s. While there are many forms of economic analysis, this article focuses upon cost-benefit analysis, especially as adopted in the work of William Nordhaus. The article addresses the way in which climate change economics subtly altered debates about climate policy from the late 1970s through the 1990s. These debates are often technical and complex, but the argument in this article is that the development of a philosophy of climate change as an issue for cost-benefit analysis has had consequences for how climate policy is made today.

Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, Neil

2011-01-01

Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

The long, slow birth of a U.S. emissions trading regime. Recent developments in U.S. climate policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freestone, D.; Frenkil, D.J. [George Washington University Law School, Washington D.C. (United States)

2010-11-15

On Friday, 23 April 2010, the leadership of the 11th Congress and the Obama Administration were poised to capitalise on recent, unparalleled progress in furtherance of U.S. climate policy. Over the past year, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the first climate bill in United States history, and the Obama Administration quickly initiated the regulation of greenhouse gas ('GHG') emissions, primarily through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ('EPA') after years of neglect by the Bush Administration. Just two days were left to go until Monday, 26 April 2010, when CEOs from leading energy, financial and manufacturing corporations were scheduled to join senators from both sides of the aisle to introduce the missing link in a federal 'cap-and-trade' scheme: a climate bill that was 'filibusterproof' in the Senate - i.e. capable of gaining the necessary 60 votes out of the 100 members of the U.S. Senate to pass a procedural motion on the bill that effectively cuts off debate and brings the bill to a vote. The bill was the product of nearly a year of deal-making and compromise between leaders from both parties, which seldom occurs these days on Capital Hill. One of the pivotal aspects of that compromise was that Senate democrats were willing to accept the demand of Republicans to include a provision in the bill that would expand offshore oil drilling. However, in the midst of a turbulent political environment (a controversial immigration bill and the Deepwater Horizon drilling disaster), coupled with an economic downturn, climate policy had to take a backseat on the national agenda to issues like unemployment and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in the final months leading up to the November 2, 2010 'mid-term' elections. However slow the momentum of a GHG emission-reducing regime in the United States prior to the 2010 elections, the process came to a crashing halt when American voters handed the U.S. House of

Long-term Strategic Planning for a Resilient Metro Colombo: An Economic Case for Wetland Conservation and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Rozenberg, J.

2015-12-01

Colombo faces recurrent floods that threaten its long-term economic development. Its urban wetlands have been identified by local agencies as a critical component of its flood reduction system, but they have declined rapidly in recent years due to continuous infilling, unmanaged land development and dredging to create lakes. In collaboration with government agencies, NGOs and local universities, the World Bank has carried out a Robust Decision Making analysis to examine the value of Colombo urban wetlands, both in the short-term and long-term, and identify what are the most viable strategies available to increase the city's flood resilience in an unclear future (in terms of climate change and patterns of urban development). This has involved the use of numerous hydrological and socio-economic scenarios as well as the evaluation of some wetlands benefits, like ecosystem services, wastewater treatment, or recreational services. The analysis has determined that if all urban wetlands across the Colombo catchment were lost, in some scenarios the metropolitan area would have to cope with an annual average flood loss of approximately 1% of Colombo GDP in the near future. For long-term strategies, trade-offs between urban development, lake creation and wetland conservation were analyzed and it was concluded that an active management of urban wetlands was the lowest regret option. Finally, the analysis also revealed that in the future, with climate change and fast urban development, wetlands will not be sufficient to protect Colombo against severe floods. Pro-active urban planning and land-use management are therefore necessary, both to protect existing wetlands and to reduce future exposure. The use of many different scenarios, the consideration of several policy options, and the open participatory process ensured policy-makers' buy-in and lead to the decision to actively protect urban wetlands in Colombo.

Aligning climate policy with finance ministers' G20 agenda

Science.gov (United States)

Edenhofer, Ottmar; Knopf, Brigitte; Bak, Céline; Bhattacharya, Amar

2017-07-01

There is no longer a choice between climate policy and no climate policy. G20 finance ministers have to play a key role in implementing smart climate policies like carbon pricing. Yet they remain reluctant to take advantage of the merits of carbon pricing for sound fiscal policy.

EU 2030 targets 'unachievable' without long-term nuclear operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mitev, Lubomir [NucNet, Brussels (Belgium)

2015-01-15

Nuclear energy will continue to support greenhouse gas emission reduction targets until 2020, but without decisions on long-term operation of ageing reactors, it will be difficult for the EU to meet its 2030 targets, International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Maria van der Hoeven, tells NucNet in an interview. The IEA has quite a few remarks and questions related to the EU goals of competitiveness, security of supply and sustainability. It is good to have these targets, but up until now the EU is missing the direct connection between the three goals. What is mostly needed to achieve the goals is to finalise the EU's internal energy market. Secondly cost-effective climate and energy policies are needed because it is not only about climate and energy, but also about economic development and competitiveness. The ageing EU reactor fleet requires country-level and owner/operator-level decisions in the short term regarding plant safety regulations, plant upgrades, uprates, lifetime extensions and licence renewals. Upgrading and uprating existing nuclear plants is one of the cheapest ways of producing carbon-free electricity in the EU. Without long-term operation, the IEA expects nuclear capacity in the EU could fall by a factor of six by 2030 and that will make it more difficult to achieve the EU's 2030 climate targets. Public opinion is an important topic for the acceptance of all energy sources and it is different in all IEA member countries. Europe is very sensitive to almost all forms of energy, including wind turbines and solar panels. This is linked to a lack of information, so we need more and better transparency on information for people.

Do national-level policies to promote low-carbon technology deployment pay off for the investor countries?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iyer, Gokul C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Hultman, Nathan E.

2016-01-01

National-level policies to promote deployment of low-carbon technologies have been suggested and used as a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the context of international climate change mitigation. The long-term benefits of such policies in the context of international climate change mitigation depend on their effects on near-term emissions abatement and resultant long-term technological change that will reduce abatement costs of achieving global mitigation goals. There is also an argument that these policies might foster early-mover advantages in international low-carbon technology markets. We first review the factors that could influence such benefits and use a global integrated assessment model to present an illustrative example to understand the potential magnitude of these benefits. We find that reductions in long-term abatement costs might not provide sufficient incentives to justify policies to promote the deployment of low-carbon technologies, in particular, the emerging, higher-risk, and currently expensive alternatives. We also find that early-mover advantages can potentially provide substantial benefits, but only if these advantages are both strong and persistent. Our results suggest a role for international cooperation in low-carbon technology deployment to address the existence of free-riding opportunities in the context of global climate change mitigation. - Highlights: • Study long-term benefits of low-carbon deployment in climate mitigation context. • Focus on reduced long-term abatement costs and early-mover advantage benefits . • Benefits depend on interactions among country, sector and technology factors. • Reduced long-term costs may not sufficiently incentivize expensive investments. • Early-mover advantages may incentivize such investments if strong and persistent.

NGO and industry perspectives on energy and climate change policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hornung, R.

2002-01-01

This paper highlighted the clear contradiction between projected business as usual energy development in Canada and its climate change commitments. It was cautioned that these contradictions can only be resolved by actively incorporating climate change considerations into energy policies and by making efforts to promote energy efficiency and investment in renewable energy technologies. Canada's commitments to the Kyoto Protocol seem to be inconsistent with the ongoing policy of exporting greater amounts of oil and gas to the United States. In the short-term, the author advocates the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and supports the debate on how the cost of meeting greenhouse gas commitments should be distributed, and how they can be minimized

A study on the long-term nuclear policy direction responding the changes of international and domestic nuclear situation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyun Jun; Yang, M. H.; Lee, B. O.; Ham, C. H.; Chung, W. S.; Lee, T. J.; Yun, S. W.; Ko, H. S.; Nha, K. H.

1998-06-01

The long-term nuclear policy directions are proposed with three aspects of nuclear technology development policy, nuclear regulatory policy, and tasks required for promoting pro-nuclear movement. Several nuclear technology areas, such as technology for the improvement of nuclear economics, safety enhancement technology, radwaste, treatment/disposal technology, fuel cycle technology, and proliferation-resistant nuclear technology, fuel recycle technology, and proliferation-resistant nuclear technology, appear very important in the future nuclear technology development policy. Nuclear regulation policy should be established with balancing between public safety and expansion of nuclear industry. Objective of nuclear regulation should be recognized not to collapse a nuclear industry, and the worth of nuclear regulatory regime may be also meaningful if nuclear industry can be well developed. It should be necessary to make a proper atmosphere that can resolve revealed or potential problems and issues against the harmonious implementation of nuclear policy. For the purpose, nuclear policy should contain certain policies to promote a nuclear development, such as social policy, international cooperation strategy, and national resource allocation policy. (author). 20 refs., 8 tabs., 5 figs

Climate technology and energy efficiency. From ''best practice'' experiences to policy diffusion. Climate technology initiative capacity building seminar for CEE/FSU countries. Seminar proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tempel, Sybille; Moench, Harald [eds.; Mez, Lutz; Krug, Michael; Grashof, Katharina [Free Univ. Berlin (DE). Environmental Policy Research Centre (FFU)

2005-01-15

The seminar proceedings cover the following contributions following the opening address: Germany's climate protection program - a step by step approach; the renewable energy act in Germany; CTI's activities for technology transfer on climate change; the climate protection programs of the Federal states: the example of Bavaria; UNECE energy efficiency market formation activities and investment project development to reduce GHG emissions in economies in transition; energy efficiency - policy designs and implementation in PEEREA countries; environmental fiscal reform in Germany; instruments to overcome existing barriers to energy efficiency projects in Bulgaria; proposal to establish a testing ground facility for JI projects in the Baltic sea region testing ground; the Baltic sea region joint implementation testing ground, the Estonian perspective; policy instrumentation; financing international market penetration of renewable energies: a report on the German export initiative; the Dutch ERUPT and CERUPT programs - lessons and outlook; co-operation between Austrian and Central and Eastern Europe in the field of energy efficiency and renewable energy; biomass and pellet market:: implementation strategies in Slovakia; results of monitoring of the German biomass ordinance; developing RES strategy for the Czech republic; building retrofit and renewable energy; energy conversion; between economics and environment - energy saving in German housing sector; implementation and performance contracting in Slovenia; sustainable institutional mechanisms of efficient energy use in Rostov oblast health care and educational facilities; towards sustainable housing management in Lithuania; emissions trading will accelerate the introduction of renewable energies into the markets; Energy efficiency in residential and public buildings; international climate protection policy; long-term perspectives for as sustainable energy future in Germany, the Danish program Energy 21; the Japanese

Climate policy: Risk-averse governments

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Paul G.

2014-04-01

Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure.

A New Wave of European Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a 2030 Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanrahan, Gina

2013-06-11

Against a complex, challenging, and often contradictory background, the EU is currently trying to decide what kind of climate and energy regime it wants and needs in the post-2020 period. Should it replicate the formula of the 2008 Climate and Energy Package to 2030 and beyond? Or are there other pathways that may prove more effective or politically palatable? The European Commission has recently published a consultation paper on a 2030 climate and energy framework and enormous efforts are being expended in Brussels and across the Member States as stakeholders work to shape to terms of the debate. This policy brief attempts to provide an understanding of the current debates and to illuminate the key challenges in designing a new wave of European climate policy. It first sets out the current EU energy and climate framework and discusses progress made to date, before going on to outline a range of key challenges in the design of a 2030 framework. This is the fourth in a series of Environment Nexus policy briefs by experts in the field of climate, energy, agriculture and water.

A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

2008-01-01

This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maisonnave, Hélène; Pycroft, Jonathan; Saveyn, Bert; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

2012-01-01

The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyse the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy implies a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does imply an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP (making a total loss of 2.5% of GDP), but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.

GMDPtoolbox: A Matlab library for designing spatial management policies. Application to the long-term collective management of an airborne disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Cros, Marie-Josée; Aubertot, Jean-Noël; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis

2017-01-01

Designing management policies in ecology and agroecology is complex. Several components must be managed together while they strongly interact spatially. Decision choices must be made under uncertainty on the results of the actions and on the system dynamics. Furthermore, the objectives pursued when managing ecological systems or agroecosystems are usually long term objectives, such as biodiversity conservation or sustainable crop production. The framework of Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is well adapted to the qualitative modeling of such problems of sequential decision under uncertainty. Spatial interactions are easily modeled and integrated control policies (combining several action levers) can be designed through optimization. The provided policies are adaptive, meaning that management actions are decided at each time step (for instance yearly) and the chosen actions depend on the current system state. This framework has already been successfully applied to forest management and invasive species management. However, up to now, no "easy-to-use" implementation of this framework was available. We present GMDPtoolbox, a Matlab toolbox which can be used both for the design of new management policies and for comparing policies by simulation. We provide an illustration of the use of the toolbox on a realistic crop disease management problem: the design of long term management policy of blackleg of canola using an optimal combination of three possible cultural levers. This example shows how GMDPtoolbox can be used as a tool to support expert thinking.

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions? A letter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren, van D.P.; Edmonds, J.; Smith, S.J.; Calvin, K.V.; Karas, J.; Kainuma, M.; Nakicenovic, N.; Riahi, K.; Ruijven, B.J.; Swart, R.J.; Thomson, A.

2010-01-01

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated

Carbon taxes and tradeable emissions permits: the economic impacts of climate change policies in New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chisholm, A.; Porter, M. [Tasman Institute (Australia)

1994-12-31

Examines the potential economic impacts on New Zealand of climate change policy covering carbon taxes, expanding forest areas as carbon sinks (including selling plantation based emission credits to other OECD nations), and emissions quotas. It is concluded that climate change policy appears to offer high short-term economic costs and little prospect of longer-term economic gain, apart from uncertain environmental benefits. If the Government pursues an active policy to stabilise gross emissions of carbon dioxide at 1990 levels, short term losses in national output and real spending power could be around 0.5 to 1% of GDP. Any major intervention by the New Zealand Government to alter energy use patterns would bring about structural changes in the economy. 4 tabs., 12 refs.

Long-term energy and climate implications of carbon capture and storage deployment strategies in the US coal-fired electricity fleet.

Science.gov (United States)

Sathre, Roger; Masanet, Eric

2012-09-04

To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.

A dynamic crediting regime for Joint Implementation to foster innovation in the long term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michaelowa, A. Schmidt, H.

1997-01-01

Joint Implementation is a theoretically efficient instrument of a climate policy at least in the short run. This need not apply for the long run. Joint Implementation can reduce innovation in the industrialized countries because of reduced incentives for emission reduction. To realize short run efficiency gains and to avoid long run efficiency losses, we need a 'strategic' climate policy. This policy should start with full crediting of Joint Implementation allowing short-run efficiency gains which can foster technology transfer and thus lead to 'leapfrogging' by developing countries. Over time, the crediting ratio should be gradually reduced while domestic carbon taxes are raised. Experiences from the second oil shock have shown that energy-saving innovation is positively correlated to energy prices. Both, the reduced crediting and the raising domestic carbon tax, will therefore lead to long-run innovation. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 16 refs

EU policy options for climate and energy beyond 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koelemeijer, R.; Ros, J.; Notenboom, J.; Boot, P. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Groenenberg, H.; Winkel, T. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

2013-05-15

In 2009, the EU climate and energy package with targets for 2020 (the so-called 20-20-20 targets) were formulated. For the period after 2020, however, there are no legally binding targets at the EU level, except for a decreasing ETS cap which will not be sufficient in light of the ambition for 2050. This leads to uncertainty for market players, as project lead times are long and high upfront investments need to deliver returns well beyond 2020. In its Green Paper on a 2030 framework for climate and energy policies, the European Commission recognised the need for clarity regarding the post-2020 policy framework. Currently under discussion is whether the approach for 2020 should be continued towards 2030 in the form of three more stringent targets or that other approaches would be more appropriate. Within this context, the Dutch Government asked PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Ecofys for advice. PBL and Ecofys have subsequently analysed possible options for an EU policy framework for 2030 that will steer towards a low-carbon economy by 2050 in a cost-effective way.

a system approach to the long term forecasting of the climat data in baikal region

Science.gov (United States)

Abasov, N.; Berezhnykh, T.

2003-04-01

The Angara river running from Baikal with a cascade of hydropower plants built on it plays a peculiar role in economy of the region. With view of high variability of water inflow into the rivers and lakes (long-term low water periods and catastrophic floods) that is due to climatic peculiarities of the water resource formation, a long-term forecasting is developed and applied for risk decreasing at hydropower plants. Methodology and methods of long-term forecasting of natural-climatic processes employs some ideas of the research schools by Academician I.P.Druzhinin and Prof. A.P.Reznikhov and consists in detailed investigation of cause-effect relations, finding out physical analogs and their application to formalized methods of long-term forecasting. They are divided into qualitative (background method; method of analogs based on solar activity), probabilistic and approximative methods (analog-similarity relations; discrete-continuous model). These forecasting methods have been implemented in the form of analytical aids of the information-forecasting software "GIPSAR" that provides for some elements of artificial intelligence. Background forecasts of the runoff of the Ob, the Yenisei, the Angara Rivers in the south of Siberia are based on space-time regularities that were revealed on taking account of the phase shifts in occurrence of secular maxima and minima on integral-difference curves of many-year hydrological processes in objects compared. Solar activity plays an essential role in investigations of global variations of climatic processes. Its consideration in the method of superimposed epochs has allowed a conclusion to be made on the higher probability of the low-water period in the actual inflow to Lake Baikal that takes place on the increasing branch of solar activity of its 11-year cycle. The higher probability of a high-water period is observed on the decreasing branch of solar activity from the 2nd to the 5th year after its maximum. Probabilistic method

Science and society: the role of long-term studies in environmental stewardship

Science.gov (United States)

Charles T. Driscoll; Kathleen F. Lambert; F. Stuart Chapin; David J. Nowak; Thomas A. Spies; Frederick J. Swanson; David B. Kittredge; Clarisse M. Hart

2012-01-01

Long-term research should play a crucial role in addressing grand challenges in environmental stewardship. We examine the efforts of five Long Term Ecological Research Network sites to enhance policy, management, and conservation decisions for forest ecosystems. In these case studies, we explore the approaches used to inform policy on atmospheric deposition, public...

Economics, ethics, and climate policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

1992-11-01

Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Economics, ethics, and climate policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

1992-11-01

Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Understanding and managing trust at the climate science-policy interface

Science.gov (United States)

Lacey, Justine; Howden, Mark; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Colvin, R. M.

2018-01-01

Climate change effects are accelerating, making the need for appropriate actions informed by sound climate knowledge ever more pressing. A strong climate science-policy relationship facilitates the effective integration of climate knowledge into local, national and global policy processes, increases society's responsiveness to a changing climate, and aligns research activity to policy needs. This complex science-policy relationship requires trust between climate science `producers' and `users', but our understanding of trust at this interface remains largely uncritical. To assist climate scientists and policymakers, this Perspective provides insights into how trust develops and operates at the interface of climate science and policy, and examines the extent to which trust can manage — or even create — risk at this interface.

Long-term power generation expansion planning with short-term demand response: Model, algorithms, implementation, and electricity policies

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, Timo

Electric sector models are powerful tools that guide policy makers and stakeholders. Long-term power generation expansion planning models are a prominent example and determine a capacity expansion for an existing power system over a long planning horizon. With the changes in the power industry away from monopolies and regulation, the focus of these models has shifted to competing electric companies maximizing their profit in a deregulated electricity market. In recent years, consumers have started to participate in demand response programs, actively influencing electricity load and price in the power system. We introduce a model that features investment and retirement decisions over a long planning horizon of more than 20 years, as well as an hourly representation of day-ahead electricity markets in which sellers of electricity face buyers. This combination makes our model both unique and challenging to solve. Decomposition algorithms, and especially Benders decomposition, can exploit the model structure. We present a novel method that can be seen as an alternative to generalized Benders decomposition and relies on dynamic linear overestimation. We prove its finite convergence and present computational results, demonstrating its superiority over traditional approaches. In certain special cases of our model, all necessary solution values in the decomposition algorithms can be directly calculated and solving mathematical programming problems becomes entirely obsolete. This leads to highly efficient algorithms that drastically outperform their programming problem-based counterparts. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of all tailored algorithms and the challenges from a modeling software developer's standpoint, providing an insider's look into the modeling language GAMS. Finally, we apply our model to the Texas power system and design two electricity policies motivated by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's recently proposed CO2 emissions targets for the

Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Bigras, S. C.

2009-12-01

It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

2008-01-01

This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy

Climate policy in Belgium and the Flemish District

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sereno, M.

2001-01-01

According to the agreement of the Environment Ministers' Council of the European Union Belgium will have to reduce its overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7,5 % during the first commitment period (2008-2012) in relation to the reference year 1990. International climate change policy is implemented by Belgian federal authorities responsible for fiscal, labelling and product policies and regional authorities (Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels) responsible for energy, environmental and agricultural policies. This article discusses the important issues raised by Belgian federal and Flemish regional climate change policy. It focuses onto the Belgian national climate change plan' and the Flemish Region's policies as laid down in its regional Environmental Policy Plan. The overall context of this article is given in by the international climate change negotiations in The Hague during the sixth Conference of the Parties in execution of the United Nation's Framework on Climate Change. In conclusion of this article a brief overview of the Belgian point of view on the failed negotiations in The Hague is given. 6 refs

Climate science to policy and back to science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBean, G.

2007-01-01

Human activities are touted as being the principal cause for the earth's changing climate. Due to the long lead time for climate adjustment, it will continue to change through this century. There is a need for an integrated response tof reducing greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to the changing climate. This article discussed political attention toward climate change as well as debates that have focused on emission reduction targets. The Climate Convention was discussed in detail, with particular reference to the Climate Convention Workshop on the Adaptation Fund in spring 2006, which recommended that greenhouse gas mitigation coupled with adaptation measures, be integrated into broader sustainable development objectives such as economic development, energy security, public health, air quality and local environmental protection. Environmental effects and impacts of greenhouse gas as well as long-term emission reduction targets were identified. Several impacts that were discussed were temperature changes as a result of rising sea levels; increased frequency of heat waves; heavy precipitation events; intense tropical cyclones and areas affected by droughts; challenges projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range; and, the costs of recent droughts. In addition, disturbances from pests, diseases and fire are projected to have increasing impacts on forests, with an extended period of high fire risk and large increases in area burned as well as barren vast stretches of Canadian forests as a result of the western pine beetle. It was concluded that further research is needed to support an adaptation strategy and to guide longer-term emission reductions

Clashing strategic cultures and climate policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ceronsky, M.; Hepburn, C.; Obersteiner, M.; Yamagata, Y.

2004-07-01

Kagan (2002) argues that the different responses of Europeans and Americans to major strategic and international challenges is not simply due to differences in the current administrations, but rather results from (i) a power gap and (ii) differing ideologies. This article applies Kagan's theory to climate policy, employing terrorism policy as a point of comparison. We argue that the power gap between Europe and America is unable to explain the differences in climate policy. In contrast, the ideology gap may indeed have some explanatory value. Furthermore, we argue that one additional feature is critical - the costs and benefits imposed by climate change and terrorism prevention, and the process by which such costs and benefits are evaluated, differ between America and Europe. (author)

Long-term runoff changes in regions of Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miklanek, Pavol; Pekarova; Pavla

2004-01-01

Mean annual runoff variability includes both natural and anthropogenic (climate change) impacts. Aim of the paper is to identify the long-term trends and the cyclic runoff components of selected Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000, and of the Danube river for the period 1840-2000. The variability is analysed by the long-term runoff trends of 27 Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000. The stations were included into the Slovak National Climate Program and they are supposed not to be influenced by anthropogenic activities except of possible climate change. Comparison of the monthly runoff series of the 27 rivers allowed us to draw 3 regions with different runoff trends on the territory of Slovakia (constant trend in Northern and Eastern Slovakia, slow decrease in Central Slovakia, and rapid decrease in Southern Slovakia; The identification of different cyclic components of the runoff series is included. The length of the series allows to identify the 22-year cycles as maximum. By means of the longer runoff series of the Danube river it is shown that the more dry periods occurred in the central Europe and Slovakia in mid 19 th century. The longer Danube series were used also to find the longer runoff cycles of about 31 and 46 years. The mean annual temperature in Europe was lower by 0.6 o C in mid 19 th century compared to 1990s. The temperature increase is put down to climate change impact. The driest period shown by Danube runoff series in mid 19 th century occurred before the start of the climate change. Therefore it is probable that the long-term runoff variability has its own dynamics as well. (Author)

New arrangements in climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arts, B.J.M.

2000-01-01

Climate policy, its content and the way it is being organised, is changing, both nationally and internationally. The Kyoto Protocol and its effects form an important catalyst for this process. The focus in climate discourse is increasingly on 'differentiation' and 'flexibilisation', while the role of the industrial sectors involved has changed since 1997, among other things expressed in the increasing influence exerted by the business community and the declining power of the environmental movement. There is a transition underway, from pluralist to private policy arrangements

Beware of Data Gaps in Home Care Research: The Streetlight Effect and Its Implications for Policy Making on Long-Term Services and Supports

Science.gov (United States)

Newquist, Deborah D.; DeLiema, Marguerite; Wilber, Kathleen H.

2016-01-01

Policy initiatives increasingly seek greater use of home- and community-based services for older persons and those with chronic care needs, yet large gaps persist in our knowledge of home care, an indispensable component of long-term services and supports. Unrecognized data gaps, including the scope of home care provided by private hire and nonmedical providers, can distort knowledge and poorly inform long-term services and supports policy. The purpose of this article is to examine these gaps by describing the universe of formal home care services and provider types in relationship to major national sources. Findings reveal four distinct home care sectors and that the majority of formal home care is provided in the sectors that are understudied. We discuss the policy implications of data gaps and conclude with recommendations on where to expand and refine home care research. PMID:26062611

Optimal Long-Term Financial Contracting

OpenAIRE

Peter M. DeMarzo; Michael J. Fishman

2007-01-01

We develop an agency model of financial contracting. We derive long-term debt, a line of credit, and equity as optimal securities, capturing the debt coupon and maturity; the interest rate and limits on the credit line; inside versus outside equity; dividend policy; and capital structure dynamics. The optimal debt-equity ratio is history dependent, but debt and credit line terms are independent of the amount financed and, in some cases, the severity of the agency problem. In our model, the ag...

Long-term care financing through Federal tax incentives.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, D W; Weingart, J M

1988-12-01

Congress and the Administration are currently exploring various methods of promoting access to long-term care. In this article, an inventory of recent legislative proposals for using the Federal tax code to expand access to long-term care services is provided. Proposals are arrayed along a functional typology that includes tax mechanisms to encourage accumulation of funds, promote purchase of long-term care insurance, or induce the diversion of funds accumulated for another purpose (such as individual retirement accounts). The proposals are evaluated against the public policy objective of encouraging risk pooling to minimize social cost.

Obstacles in the climate policy arena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manders, T.; Tang, P.

2001-01-01

Implementing climate policy is not a straightforward matter. International negotiations during the recent climate conference in The Hague ended in disagreement. With the present position of the United States chances to reach an agreement are even slimmer than ever. One of the obstacles is to what extent trade in emission rights should be allowed. Economically speaking, there are strong arguments for allowing as much flexibility as possible. Ironically, our analysis shows that the party favouring restrictions on emissions trade, the European Union, suffers most from curtailing flexibility. Another obstacle which comes up when addressing more ambitious goals in climate policy is the involvement of developing countries. A treaty should aim at emissions reductions in developing countries as well. If the potentially serious consequences of the greenhouse effect are to be avoided, that is even essential. To induce these reductions, the developed countries could consider to compensate the developing countries. For industrialised countries compensation has the effect to raise the costs of climate policy considerably

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

2017-01-01

Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

Local government and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burger, H.; Menkveld, M.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

2000-01-01

Local government in the Netherlands could play a greater role than they currently do in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the country. This fact formed the motivation for initiating the research project on Local Government and Climate Policy. Many local climate options are known in theory. Options for reduction that lie within the sphere of influence of Dutch local government are, for example, sustainable building or encouraging the utilisation of sustainable energy. But actual practice turns out to be rather refractory. If such options are to be implemented, then one has to overcome institutional barriers, such as the co-operation between different departments in the same local authority. The objective of this research is to improve the contribution that local government makes to climate policy

Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C; Wang, James S; Koch, Dorothy M; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T; Bauer, Susanne

2010-02-23

A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Stern, Nicholas

2015-08-07

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. © 2015 The Author(s).

Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigley, T.M.L.

2003-01-01

Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

Economics, ethics and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

1993-01-01

Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (118 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.)

Long-term care financing: lessons from France.

Science.gov (United States)

Doty, Pamela; Nadash, Pamela; Racco, Nathalie

2015-06-01

POLICY POINTS: France's model of third-party coverage for long-term services and supports (LTSS) combines a steeply income-adjusted universal public program for people 60 or older with voluntary supplemental private insurance. French and US policies differ: the former pay cash; premiums are lower; and take-up rates are higher, in part because employer sponsorship, with and without subsidization, is more common-but also because coverage targets higher levels of need and pays a smaller proportion of costs. Such inexpensive, bare-bones private coverage, especially if marketed as a supplement to a limited public benefit, would be more affordable to those Americans currently most at risk of "spending down" to Medicaid. An aging population leads to a growing demand for long-term services and supports (LTSS). In 2002, France introduced universal, income-adjusted, public long-term care coverage for adults 60 and older, whereas the United States funds means-tested benefits only. Both countries have private long-term care insurance (LTCI) markets: American policies create alternatives to out-of-pocket spending and protect purchasers from relying on Medicaid. Sales, however, have stagnated, and the market's viability is uncertain. In France, private LTCI supplements public coverage, and sales are growing, although its potential to alleviate the long-term care financing problem is unclear. We explore whether France's very different approach to structuring public and private financing for long-term care could inform the United States' long-term care financing reform efforts. We consulted insurance experts and conducted a detailed review of public reports, academic studies, and other documents to understand the public and private LTCI systems in France, their advantages and disadvantages, and the factors affecting their development. France provides universal public coverage for paid assistance with functional dependency for people 60 and older. Benefits are steeply income

Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.

2014-05-01

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

Which way forward : issues in developing an effective climate regime after 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cosbey, A.; Bell, W.; Murphy, D.; Parry, J.E.; Drexhage, J.; Hammill, A.; Van Ham, J.

2005-01-01

This book proposed that a post-2012 climate regime will need to balance the needs of all countries while aiming to prevent the potentially serious economic and social consequences of the impacts of climate change. Four elements were presented to support the emergence of an internationally acceptable approach: (1) the need to ensure sustainable economic development; (2) the effective development and penetration of clean technologies; (3) the establishment of an effective international carbon market over the long term; and (4) the integration of adaptation in development and natural resource management decision-making. A series of discussion papers were presented which reviewed options on how best to create an effective and inclusive international climate regime that will achieve large reductions in global emissions and equitably reflect the diverse circumstances of countries while promoting sustainable economic development. The first paper highlighted some of the characteristics of an international policy framework for cooperatively engaging the best tools of the scientific and policy communities to address challenges over the long and short term. The second paper examined how a post-2012 global climate regime could promote the development, deployment and diffusion of the appropriate technologies expected to play a critical role in mitigating and adapting to climate change. The third paper examined market-based approaches to enable cost-effective reductions and increase the feasibility of achieving long-term reductions as well as the promotion and development of low carbon energy technologies. The final paper examined research and policy developments relevant to determining how a future regime could support a long-term, integrated approach to addressing adaptation to climate change by all countries. refs., tabs., figs

Don't shoot the messenger: re-framing climate policy to respond to evolving science (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E.; Otto, A.; Rayner, S.

2013-12-01

Lack of progress in mitigation policy, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations climb apparently inexorably past 400ppm, is often blamed on a failure to 'communicate the climate change message' effectively. A small but increasing number of commentators is arguing that the problem is not communication, but the way in which climate policy choices are framed. In particular, the overt politicization of climate science, with so-called 'belief in climate change' being invoked as automatically implying support for a global carbon price or cap-and-trade regime, or even as an argument for voting for specific parties, makes it increasingly difficult to discuss policy options in the light of evolving science. At the heart of the problem is the interpretation of the 'precautionary principle', which is widely invoked in climate policy as a response to scientific uncertainty: policies, it is argued, should be designed to be robust to the range of possible future climates, or to deliver the ';best' possible probability-weighted outcome. The problem with this approach is that it very often makes policy contingent on worst-case scenarios - such as the risk of high climate sensitivity or rapid non-linear climate change - which are often the most uncertain aspects of climate science and hence subject to frequent revision. To be relevant to policies that are based on mitigating worst-case risks, the scientific community is also required to focus on establishing what these risks are, leaving it open, unjustly but understandably, to the accusation of alarmism. Focusing on worst-case scenarios can also give the impression that the mitigation problem is unachievable, and the only option is short-term adaptation followed by geo-engineering. One way of reducing the politicization of climate science is to make policy explicitly contingent on the climate response, such that a high (or low) rate of anthropogenic warming over the coming decades is automatically met with an aggressive (or moderate

Federal funding for syringe exchange in the US: Explaining a long-term policy failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Showalter, David

2018-05-01

The United States prohibited federal funding for syringe exchange programs for people who inject drugs nearly continuously from 1988 to 2015, despite growing scientific evidence, diminishing AIDS-related controversy, and tens of thousands of deaths from injection-related AIDS. This study investigates the political and institutional bases of this long-term failure to support lifesaving public policy. This study draws on national, regional, and local media coverage, archival sources, and semi-structured, in-depth interviews with 6 long-time syringe exchange researchers and activists from California. I use case-oriented process tracing methods to explain the persistence and reform of the federal funding ban. Though previous studies focus on the symbolic clash between conservative morality and empirical science, I find that changing demographic and regional inequalities in the effects of the AIDS epidemic and dynamics produced by the federal structure of US government were more important factors in the creation and persistence of the funding ban. The persistence and eventual repeal of the ban on federal funding for syringe exchange was a product of the changing demographic, geographic, and political effects of the AIDS epidemic within the federal structure of US government, rather than a consequence of intractable morality politics. These contextual dynamics continue to shape AIDS and public health policy at all levels of government. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

National Energy Policy and Climate Change Prevention

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruggink, J.J.C.; Mallant, R.K.A.M.; Van der Wart, R.; Muradin-Szweykowska, M.

1992-06-01

Climate change prevention has become one of the major concerns of environmental policy in the Netherlands. The Dutch government has set definite targets for CO 2 emissions in the coming decade. These targets and the measures necessary to reach them are described in the paper. In addition, the technical feasibility of realizing the Toronto objective of a 20% reduction in CO 2 emissions by the year 2005 in the Netherlands is discussed. It appears that energy conservation options are most crucial for the short-term, but that eventually new supply technologies are needed to obtain drastic reductions in the long term. The increased need for research and development efforts has led to two innovative research programmes on sustainable energy development in the Netherlands. The ENGINE (ENergy Generation In the Natural Environment) programme is implemented by the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) and addresses the specific problems associated with the three major components of supply: cleanliness in the case of fossil fuels, safety in the case of nuclear energy, and costs in the case of renewable sources. The complementary SYRENE (SYstem integration of Renewable ENergy and End use) is implemented by the Netherlands Agency for Energy and Environment (NOVEM) and addresses the system aspects of sustainable energy development. The objectives and approaches of these two programmes are briefly presented. 1 fig., 1 tab., 4 refs

Policy legitimacy - The key to long term Management of Radioactive Waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atherton, E.; Dalton, J.; Wild, D.

2003-01-01

Experience in the UK has shown that the central theme of delivering a solution is contingent on building a broad base of support for the long term management project. This is multi-layered, both in terms of local, regional and national political actors, but also across societal groups. Legitimacy is the key to success and needs to be understood in three main domains - equity, competence and economics. Finding the appropriate balance is essential for progress in the long term. (authors)

EU climate policy impact in 2020. With a focus on the effectiveness of emissions trading policy in an economic recession scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graus, W.; Sreenivasamurthy, U.; Wesselink, B.

2009-06-01

PBL's Environmental Balance 2009 provides information on the current status and trends of environmental and climate policies. Ecofys contributes to the climate policy section of the report by developing the following three indicators: (1) ex-post and ex-ante policy impacts until 2020 at EU level (wedge diagram); (2) business-as-usual emissions of EU ETS sectors until 2020, revised for the current economic recession; (3) a latest literature review of EUA (EU emission allowances) price band expected until 2020. Based on the latter two analyses, a brief note on the impact of the current economic recession on the effectiveness of the EU emission trading scheme until 2020 is presented.An economic recession of two years or longer will considerably decrease the effectiveness of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in stimulating low-carbon technologies. In order to meet EU climate targets in the longer term, new governmental policies will be needed to compensate for this.

Beware of Data Gaps in Home Care Research: The Streetlight Effect and Its Implications for Policy Making on Long-Term Services and Supports.

Science.gov (United States)

Newquist, Deborah D; DeLiema, Marguerite; Wilber, Kathleen H

2015-10-01

Policy initiatives increasingly seek greater use of home- and community-based services for older persons and those with chronic care needs, yet large gaps persist in our knowledge of home care, an indispensable component of long-term services and supports. Unrecognized data gaps, including the scope of home care provided by private hire and nonmedical providers, can distort knowledge and poorly inform long-term services and supports policy. The purpose of this article is to examine these gaps by describing the universe of formal home care services and provider types in relationship to major national sources. Findings reveal four distinct home care sectors and that the majority of formal home care is provided in the sectors that are understudied. We discuss the policy implications of data gaps and conclude with recommendations on where to expand and refine home care research. © The Author(s) 2015.

78 FR 36449 - State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Program

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-18

...-term care ombudsmen at every level have reported to AoA that they have found some provisions of the Act... to residents' care and quality of life at the local, state and national levels. Begun in 1972 as a... policies so long as those policies do not conflict with Ombudsman program law and policy). Therefore, AoA...

Electric sector capacity planning under uncertainty: Climate policy and natural gas in the US

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bistline, John E.

2015-01-01

This research investigates the dynamics of capacity planning and dispatch in the US electric power sector under a range of technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties. Using a two-stage stochastic programming approach, model results suggest that the two most critical risks in the near-term planning process of the uncertainties considered here are natural gas prices and the stringency of climate policy. Stochastic strategies indicate that some near-term hedging from lower-cost wind and nuclear may occur but robustly demonstrate that delaying investment and waiting for more information can be optimal to avoid stranding capital-intensive assets. Hedging strategies protect against downside losses while retaining the option value of deferring irreversible commitments until more information is available about potentially lucrative market opportunities. These results are explained in terms of the optionality of investments in the electric power sector, leading to more general insights about uncertainty, learning, and irreversibility. The stochastic solution is especially valuable if decision-makers do not sufficiently account for the potential of climate constraints in future decades or if fuel price projections are outdated. - Highlights: • Explicitly incorporating uncertainty influences capacity planning decisions. • Natural gas prices and climate policy are the two most critical risks for utilities. • Strategic delay can be explained in terms of real options. • Stochastic strategies are especially valuable when outdated assumptions are used.

A Scientific Basis for Climate Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-08-01

The Scientific Council on Climate Issues has been commissioned by the Swedish Government to provide a scientific assessment as a basis for the work of the Climate Committee, the all-party committee for the review of climate policy. An important part of this task is to provide a basis and recommendations for Swedish climate policy targets at national, EU and international level. In the opening chapters, the Council looks at climate change, its reasons and its consequences for ecosystems and society. The Council then makes recommendations concerning Swedish climate policy targets at global, EU and national levels, aimed at averting dangerous impact on the climate. In the concluding chapters, the Council presents a number of possible measures and policy instruments, and outlines the likely costs involved if the goals are to be achieved. Taken as a whole, the document represents a comprehensive basis for policy decisions that consider what needs to be achieved to reduce the risks of climate impact and what is actually achievable, i.e. decisions involving trade-offs between economic benefits and costs. The Council considers: that the EU's GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level should be reduced by 30-40 % by 2020 and by 75-90 % by 2050 if the Union is to take its share of the global responsibility for achievement of the two-degree target; that Sweden's GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level should be reduced by 20-25 % by 2020 and by 70-85 % by 2050 if Sweden is to take its share of the global responsibility for achievement of the two-degree target; that a national emission target for Sweden should be formulated as a target with deductible emissions allowances, i.e., that assessment of target achievement is based on the amount of emission allowances allocated or auctioned by Sweden to activities covered by the EU emissions trading scheme rather than the actual volume of emissions from these activities. The Council has provided an overview of possible measures for

EU Climate Policy Tracker 2011. Main report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoehne, N.; Geurts, F.; Teckenburg, E.; Blok, K.; Becker, D. [Ecofys, Utrecht (Netherlands)

2011-11-15

published in March, 2011. There is a disagreement on what it means to be on the path to avoiding dangerous climate change. Our analysis indicates that global cuts of around 80% are needed by 2050, translating to the high end of the 80 to 95% range that is the indicative policy in Europe. The Commission's roadmap investigates the less ambitious end of that range. The rating scale presented here also places a high premium on certainty. Policies that appear more likely to have effective implementation, funding that is long-term and certain, and targets that are binding - these rate more highly. Exploring these factors is a major part of the chapter on EU policy. The vision also supports the view that we should move to a fully renewable energy system by 2050. This is to emphasise not only that greenhouse gas cuts are important, but that other environmental, energy security, and social values also matter. Cutting dangerous and costly dependencies on fossil fuel imports, and avoiding the millennia-long legacy of nuclear waste are just two examples. Additional to this report you can find a summary report, individual country profiles of the 27 EU member states, information about our methodology and all references and sources used for this report on our website: www.climatepolicytracker.eu.

Lessons Learned from the Energy Policies of IEA Countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-07-01

This information paper provides policy makers and managers, facing tough energy policy challenges, with a wider perspective of how the same issues are being addressed by different IEA member countries. The topics included are: Government structures for co-ordinating energy and climate policies; The use of long-term energy forecasts and scenarios; and Progress in the delivery of key energy security policies.

China Policy Options in a Post Crisis World : Young China Scholars ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

China Policy Options in a Post Crisis World : Young China Scholars Network - Phase II ... and the social dimensions of the crisis and post-crisis policy; rural economic ... at fostering effective, long-term climate action to reduce social inequality, ...

A Long-Term and Reproducible Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Record for Climate Studies and Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, G.; Meier, W. N.; Scott, D. J.; Savoie, M. H.

2013-01-01

A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

Long-term evolution of the Campine area in Northern Belgium: past and expected future evolution of tectonics and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Craen, M.; Beerten, K.; Brassinnes, S.; Wouters, L.

2012-01-01

Document available in extended abstract form only. Disposal of radioactive waste in a geological repository involves the reliance, now and in the long-term future, on the geological and hydrogeological environment. In preparation of the safety and feasibility case 1 (SFC1), the long-term geodynamic evolution of Boom Clay and its geological environment in the Campine area in northern Belgium is studied. Time frames considered are the geological past and the future 1 million year. The idea is that the past long-term evolution can be extended to predict what might happen in the future. In this paper, we first focusses on the past long-term tectonic evolution of the Campine area, and make an extrapolation for the future 1 Ma. We then focus on past climate evolution, and similarly, an assessment of possible future climate conditions is made for the Campine area within the next 1 Ma. Another paper focusses on the combined effect of tectonics and climate on the evolution of the surface environment in the Campine area for the next 1 Ma, with respect to geomorphological, pedological and hydrological processes. During the Palaeozoic, the geodynamic evolution of the Campine area was mainly determined by tectonics. A large intermittently subsiding sedimentary basin existed in which large amounts of sediments were deposited, and which was protected by the Brabant Massif from major oro-genetic compressive processes. Palaeozoic sediments in the Campine Basin reach a maximum thickness of 4000 m. During Mesozoic and Cenozoic, its geodynamic evolution was the interactive result of plate tectonics, sea level changes and climate evolution. Further subsidence resulted in a thick sequence of sedimentary deposits. Mesozoic sediments are found throughout the Campine area while remains of Jurassic-Triassic sediments are found only in the central Roer Valley Graben in the east. The Cenozoic is characterised by a succession of sub-horizontal layers of Tertiary clays and sands and covered by

EUROPEAN UNION POLICIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Canter

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges that humanity faces in the 21st century, and for the European Union, combating this phenomenon represents an important element, which is reflected both in the actions carried out in recent years, domestically and internationally, as well as in the EU policy on climate change. Within the EU, regulations were adopted, that demonstrate the importance that the Union confers to the limitation of this phenomenon, stressing at the same time the need for an integrated policy framework to ensure the security for potential investors and a coordinated approach between Member States. This paper will present recent developments for the most important policies to combat and mitigate climate change in the European Union, starting with "20-20-20" objectives, which are to be met through the package "Energy-Climate Change", continuing with 2030 and 2050 timeframes, and finally presenting the main lines of action to combat climate change.

China's climate-change policy 1988-2011: From zero to hero?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stensdal, Iselin

2012-11-01

This report describes the evolution of China's domestic climate-change policy over the period 1988-2011, using the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to explore the policy change. Policy development has been gradual, with the most notable change occurring in 2007, when the National Climate Change Programme elevated climate change to a national policy issue. Within the climate-change policy subsystem there emerged an advocacy coalition - the Climate Change Advocacy Coalition - urging that climate change should be taken into consideration in relevant policies. The ACF points to socioeconomic development and the Climate Change Advocacy Coalition's policy-oriented learning as explanations for the development of climate-change policy in China.(auth)

Policy Coherence and Interplay between Climate Change Adaptation Policies and the Forestry Sector in Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Ranabhat, Sunita; Ghate, Rucha; Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Tankha, Sunil

2018-06-01

Least Developed Countries are likely to be hit the hardest by climate change and need focused efforts towards adaptation. Nepal recognizes that it needs to integrate climate change adaptation into various policies, but limited understanding of how to make these policies coherent is among the factors that hinder effective adaptation action. This can lead to wasted resources and lost opportunities. This paper applies concepts from policy coherence for development frameworks and policy content analysis to examine coherence in Nepal's climate and forest policies—and discusses the factors hindering effective implementation. The policies are analyzed at the horizontal/external level at three layers—motivation, measures, and planned implementation process. The paper finds that policies are more consistent on motivation level and adaptation measures, but are less coherent on implementation. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is more explicit in identifying institutions, organizations, roles and responsibilities, resource allocation (financial), and a monitoring and evaluation plan for climate change adaptation while other policies such as Climate Change Policy 2011, National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 2014-2020, Forest Policy 2015, and Forest Sector Strategy 2016 have critical gaps in this area. This paper conclude that formulation of a policy, articulating targets, and mobilizing financial resources are in themselves not sufficient to effectively address climate change adaptation. Policy-based legislation is required, together with development of a supportive collaborative multi-stakeholder approach at different levels of governance, backed up by effective, collaborative monitoring and enforcement.

Intra-party policy entrepreneurship and party goals. The case of political parties’ climate policy preferences in Ireland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Little, Conor

2017-01-01

This study contributes to the growing literature on the domestic politics of climate change by examining the climate policy preferences of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Labour Party over 20 years. Bringing the concept of ‘policy entrepreneurship’ into the study of intra-party politics, it uses...... who have engaged in policy entrepreneurship with the aim of strengthening their parties’ climate policy preferences. In instances where office-seeking incentives for climate policy have been strong, they have often contributed to changes in policy preferences, whether or not intra-party policy...... entrepreneurship has been present. Theoretically, the study argues that the concept of ‘policy entrepreneurship’ can be usefully borrowed from the public policy literature by researchers of party policy preferences and intra-party politics. Empirically, it adds to the small but growing body of research on climate...

Economy and policy of climatic changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faucheux, S.; Joumni, H.

2005-01-01

In an economical framework, this book discusses the following topics: policies against the climatic changes, the scientific prospectives facing this policies priority, their costs, the new international market of carbon, the future technological innovations. This book exposes also socio-economic, geopolitical and technological questions bound to theses climatic changes and their regulation. It analyzes more especially the North-South strategies and the flexibility tools challenges of the Kyoto protocol. (A.L.B.)

Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hwang, In Chang; Tol, Richard S.J.; Hofkes, Marjan W.

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some conditions such as bounded temperature increases, low risk aversion, low damage costs, and bounded utility function. More specifically, the fat-tailed risk with respect to a climate parameter does not necessarily lead to an unbounded carbon tax. In this case, the basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. - Highlights: • A fat tail is classified and the tail effect on climate policy is discussed. • The optimal carbon tax is not necessarily unbounded. • The basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. • This is a numerical confirmation of the recent theoretical research.

Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Shevnina, Elena; Kourzeneva, Ekaterina; Kovalenko, Viktor; Vihma, Timo

2017-05-01

Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010-2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.

Long-term ice sheet-climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vizcaino, Miren [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); University of California, Department of Geography, Berkeley, CA (United States); Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Maier-Reimer, Ernst [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Groeger, Matthias [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany); Schurgers, Guy [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund (Sweden); Winguth, Arne M.E. [Center for Climatic Research, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison (United States)

2008-11-15

Several multi-century and multi-millennia simulations have been performed with a complex Earth System Model (ESM) for different anthropogenic climate change scenarios in order to study the long-term evolution of sea level and the impact of ice sheet changes on the climate system. The core of the ESM is a coupled coarse-resolution Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). Ocean biogeochemistry, land vegetation and ice sheets are included as components of the ESM. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) decays in all simulations, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes negatively to sea level rise, due to enhanced storage of water caused by larger snowfall rates. Freshwater flux increases from Greenland are one order of magnitude smaller than total freshwater flux increases into the North Atlantic basin (the sum of the contribution from changes in precipitation, evaporation, run-off and Greenland meltwater) and do not play an important role in changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC). The regional climate change associated with weakening/collapse of the NAMOC drastically reduces the decay rate of the GrIS. The dynamical changes due to GrIS topography modification driven by mass balance changes act first as a negative feedback for the decay of the ice sheet, but accelerate the decay at a later stage. The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet. (orig.)

Oceanic implications for climate change policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeil, Ben I.

2006-01-01

Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982), each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its territorial sea, known as the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ is undoubtedly an anthropogenic CO 2 sink, it has been over-looked within international climate policy. In this paper I use an area-weighted scaling argument to show that the inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink within national carbon accounts would have significant implications in tracking national greenhouse commitments to any future climate change policy initiative. The advantages and disadvantages for inclusion of the EEZ CO 2 sink into global climate change policy are also explored. The most compelling argument for including the EEZ CO 2 sink is that it would enhance the equity and resources among coastal nations to combat and adapt against future climate change that will inherently impact coastal nations more so than land locked nations. If included, the funds raised could be used for either monitoring or adaptive coastal infrastructure among the most vulnerable nations. On the other hand, the EEZ anthropogenic CO 2 sink cannot be directly controlled by human activities and could be used as a disincentive for some developed nations to reduce fossil-fuel related greenhouse gas emissions. This may therefore dampen efforts to ultimately reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In consideration of these arguments it is therefore suggested that an 'EEZ clause' be added to Kyoto and any future international climate policy that explicitly excludes its use within national carbon accounts under these international climate frameworks

The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

2011-11-15

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minji Seo

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

Ozone and PM related health co-benefits of climate change policies in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Barker, Terry; Anger, Annela; Dessens, Olivier

2012-01-01

This paper reports the results of extending a previous analysis of reductions in ozone exposures resulting from greenhouse gas reduction policies in Mexico, to the case of estimating reductions in premature death and risks of non-fatal diseases following reductions in both ozone and particulate matter exposures. The results show that a policy of greenhouse gas reduction in the Mexican economy by 77% relative to a baseline growth scenario results in reduced mortality loss of almost 3000 lives per year. The benefit in terms of non-fatal disease is 417,000 cases reduced per year, at a savings of $0.6B per year in cost of illness. These reductions in human health risk, stemming from co-benefits of climate change policies, are significant in light of targets of risk reduction typically used in environmental regulatory decisions, and would be considered important drivers of policy choice if climate policy were harmonised with other areas of risk-based environmental policy.

Directed technical change and differentiation of climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, Vincent M.; Loeschel, Andreas; Reilly, John

2008-01-01

This paper studies the cost effectiveness of climate policy if there are technology externalities. For this purpose, we develop a forward looking model that captures empirical links between CO 2 emissions associated with energy use, directed technical change and the economy. We find our most cost effective climate policy to include a combination of R and D subsidies and CO 2 emission constraints, although R and D subsidies raise the shadow value of the CO 2 constraint (i.e. CO 2 price) because of a strong rebound effect from stimulating innovation. Furthermore, we find that cost effectiveness of climate policy improves if it is differentiated between technologies. Even our rudimentary distinction between CO 2 intensive technologies and non-CO 2 intensive technologies lead to this result. Such differentiated climate policy encourages growth in the non-CO 2 intensive sectors and discourages growth in CO 2 intensive sectors by harnessing positive effects of technology externalities on total factor productivity in the former and letting the latter bear relatively more of the abatement burden. This result is robust to whether emission constraints, R and D subsidies or combinations of both are used as climate policy instruments. (author)

Global warming and social innovation. The challenge of a climate-neutral society

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kok, M.T.J.; Vermeulen, W.J.V.; Faaij, A.P.C.; De Jager, D. (eds.)

2002-07-01

After the introductory Chapter 1 Chapter 2 presents two long-term visions of a climate-neutral energy system in The Netherlands. It looks at the window of opportunity and shows that there are a number of technically feasible ways to realize drastic emission reductions. At the same time, it is well known that climate change is a tough problem to deal with and that the results of current policies have been relatively meagre. In Chapter 3 a number of dilemmas that play a role in current climate-change policies is identified. The dilemmas are elaborated in the light of desired long-term developments. Both Chapters 2 and 3 illustrate a sharp contrast between the problematic current situation and the substantial targets that need to be achieved over time. The question is how to realize trend breaks and orchestrate the transition towards a climate-neutral societal. In Chapter 4 the governance of technological change and innovation is discussed. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 form the basis on which the authors of the subsequent chapters have written their analysis about the transition towards a climate-neutral society. As a whole, the book provides the reader with an analysis of prospects of long-term climate policies, short-term issues, the societal trend breaks needed to realize substantive emission reductions and possible ways to realize these trend breaks. Chapter 5 analyses households, behaviour and consumption patterns. It assesses future opportunities for drastic changes that would lead to more environmentally sound energy consumption by households and discusses constraints to changes in behaviour. In Chapter 6, the role of local authorities in the transition to a climate-neutral society is discussed. Chapter 7 takes the perspective of materials management as a breakthrough technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In Chapter 8, the contribution that information and communication technology (ICT) (as another breakthrough technology) can make to the transition is

Technology policy for energy and climate change. Lessons from a retrospective of thirty years on research, development, and demonstration experiences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marlay, R.C.; Koske, B.H. [Office of Policy and International Affairs, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

2005-08-15

Increasing accumulations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the Earth atmosphere have raised concerns about the potential for climate change and related consequences. These concerns have heightened attention to GHG emissions and the various means for their mitigation. If substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions of GHGs were to be required over the course of the 21 Century, fundamental changes would need to take place in the way the world produces and uses energy, as well as in many other GHG-emitting aspects of industry, agriculture, land management and use, and other activities associated with modern civilization. New and advanced technologies could enable and facilitate a gradual, long-term transformation to a future society characterized by significantly lower GHG emissions. Progress could be made by providing improved and less costly means for reducing, avoiding, capturing and sequestering GHG emissions, while also providing the energy and other services needed to sustain expanding economic activity and serve the rising aspirations of a growing world population. It is generally agreed that certain policies aimed at stimulating technological innovation toward this end, including investment in research, development and demonstration (RD and D), constitute an important component of any long-term strategy aimed at addressing climate change. Beyond RD and D, however, there appears to be little agreement as to the answers to two key questions. Might augmenting policies, beyond RD and D, be justified today to spur technology development and adoption? If so, what does history suggest about the kinds of policies that might be most appropriate, and to what extent would they be applicable? This paper attempts to provide insights to the answers to these two questions. It notes in passing the current state of climate change science and its uncertainties, which suggests the potential efficacy of so-called hedging strategies to reduce

Technology policy for energy and climate change. Lessons from a retrospective of thirty years on research, development, and demonstration experiences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marlay, R.C.; Koske, B.H.

2005-08-01

Increasing accumulations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the Earth atmosphere have raised concerns about the potential for climate change and related consequences. These concerns have heightened attention to GHG emissions and the various means for their mitigation. If substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions of GHGs were to be required over the course of the 21 Century, fundamental changes would need to take place in the way the world produces and uses energy, as well as in many other GHG-emitting aspects of industry, agriculture, land management and use, and other activities associated with modern civilization. New and advanced technologies could enable and facilitate a gradual, long-term transformation to a future society characterized by significantly lower GHG emissions. Progress could be made by providing improved and less costly means for reducing, avoiding, capturing and sequestering GHG emissions, while also providing the energy and other services needed to sustain expanding economic activity and serve the rising aspirations of a growing world population. It is generally agreed that certain policies aimed at stimulating technological innovation toward this end, including investment in research, development and demonstration (RD and D), constitute an important component of any long-term strategy aimed at addressing climate change. Beyond RD and D, however, there appears to be little agreement as to the answers to two key questions. Might augmenting policies, beyond RD and D, be justified today to spur technology development and adoption? If so, what does history suggest about the kinds of policies that might be most appropriate, and to what extent would they be applicable? This paper attempts to provide insights to the answers to these two questions. It notes in passing the current state of climate change science and its uncertainties, which suggests the potential efficacy of so-called hedging strategies to reduce risk

Energy and climate policy in Europe; Energie- und Klimapolitik in Europa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This is a publication of the Baden-Wuerttemberg state center of political education (Landeszentrale fuer Politische Bildung Baden-Wuerttemberg) on energy policy and climate policy in Europe. It discusses the following aspects: Assured supply of energy and climate policy - incompatible goals? Climate policy and energy policy in a global system; Legitimation of the EU by successful energy policy and climate policy; Emission trading: Selling of indulgences or successful instrument? Energy policy in Europe after 1945; From a beacon of hope to a phase-out model? The future of nuclear power; The future of renewable energy sources in Europe. (orig./RHM)

Purchase of power by State Electricity Boards from biomass gasifier systems: formulating a long term national policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jain, B.C.

1992-01-01

Current policy for purchase of power from renewable sources of energy by State Electricity Boards in India is examined and certain changes in that policy are suggested. State Electricity Boards are reluctant to buy power from renewables as such a purchase is seen by the Boards as being of against their economic interests. But if socio-environmental and climatological costs of power of thermal plants are taken into consideration, it becomes imperative that a long term policy for power purchase from renewables by electricity boards will have to be followed. Such a policy is outlined. After giving formulae for unit cost of generation from thermal power plants, diesel generation (DG) sets and biomass gasification, it is recommended that basis for the purchase price for power generated through biomass gas should be the cost of generation through DG sets or cost of generation through biomass gasification whichever is lower. A clause for automatic price escalation should also be a part of such policy. Some measures to compensate electricity boards for purchase of power from renewables are suggested. They include levying of a special surcharge by boards on their electricity sales and funding by the Central Government. (M.G.B.)

The Role of Sustainable Investment in Climate Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franziska Schütze

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals requires a fundamental socio-economic transformation accompanied by substantial investment in low-carbon infrastructure. Such a sustainability transition represents a non-marginal change, driven by behavioral factors and systemic interactions. However, typical economic models used to assess a sustainability transition focus on marginal changes around a local optimum, which—by construction—lead to negative effects. Thus, these models do not allow evaluating a sustainability transition that might have substantial positive effects. This paper examines which mechanisms need to be included in a standard computable general equilibrium model to overcome these limitations and to give a more comprehensive view of the effects of climate change mitigation. Simulation results show that, given an ambitious greenhouse gas emission constraint and a price of carbon, positive economic effects are possible if (1 technical progress results (partly endogenously from the model and (2 a policy intervention triggering an increase of investment is introduced. Additionally, if (3 the investment behavior of firms is influenced by their sales expectations, the effects are amplified. The results provide suggestions for policy-makers, because the outcome indicates that investment-oriented climate policies can lead to more desirable outcomes in economic, social and environmental terms.

Energy security and climate change concerns: Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, Guri, E-mail: guri.bang@cicero.uio.n [CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, P.O. Box 1129, 0318 Oslo (Norway)

2010-04-15

Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress-the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo.

Energy security and climate change concerns. Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, Guri [CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, P.O. Box 1129, 0318 Oslo (Norway)

2010-04-15

Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress - the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo. (author)

Energy security and climate change concerns: Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bang, Guri

2010-01-01

Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress-the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo.