Optogenetic long-term manipulation of behavior and animal development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Schultheis

Full Text Available Channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2 is widely used for rapid photodepolarization of neurons, yet, as it requires high-intensity blue light for activation, it is not suited for long-term in vivo applications, e.g. for manipulations of behavior, or photoactivation of neurons during development. We used "slow" ChR2 variants with mutations in the C128 residue, that exhibit delayed off-kinetics and increased light sensitivity in Caenorhabditis elegans. Following a 1 s light pulse, we could photodepolarize neurons and muscles for minutes (and with repeated brief stimulation, up to days with low-intensity light. Photoactivation of ChR2(C128S in command interneurons elicited long-lasting alterations in locomotion. Finally, we could optically induce profound changes in animal development: Long-term photoactivation of ASJ neurons, which regulate larval growth, bypassed the constitutive entry into the "dauer" larval state in daf-11 mutants. These lack a guanylyl cyclase, which possibly renders ASJ neurons hyperpolarized. Furthermore, photostimulated ASJ neurons could acutely trigger dauer-exit. Thus, slow ChR2s can be employed to long-term photoactivate behavior and to trigger alternative animal development.

Dopamine Modulation of Reunion Behavior in Short and Long Term Marmoset Pairs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah B. Carp

2018-05-01

Full Text Available One major neurobiological substrate regulating social processes is dopamine (DA. DA is implicated in social behavior in species as diverse as fish and birds, and has an established role in regulating relationships between mates in socially monogamous rodents. Marmoset monkeys display traits associated with social monogamy including high rates of affiliation, biparental care, distress upon separation, and aggression toward strangers; several of these behavioral patterns change throughout the development of relationships. This temporal change may represent changing demands, as pairs are likely to jointly face new experiences (e.g., parenthood throughout pairing. We investigated the role of DA and pairing length on social behavior during reunion after separation from the mate. Marmosets were removed from their home environment and treated with agonists and antagonists for the D1 and D2 receptor subtypes. They were exposed to a novel environment containing an opposite-sex stranger and their pair mate, and then reunited with their mate in the home enclosure. Marmosets in long term pairs exhibited higher levels of food sharing during reunion than marmosets in short term pairs, with females in long term pairs sharing food more than males; no sex difference was observed in short term pairs. Subjects in short term pairs spent more time grooming their mate than receiving grooming during reunion, while marmosets in long term pairs displayed similar amounts of both initiated and received grooming. DA treatment altered pair-level behavior. When females received either a D2 agonist or antagonist, short term pairs spent less time in proximity, compared to when males received the same treatments. In long term pairs, treatment of females with either a D1 agonist or antagonist resulted in pairs spending less time in social proximity than when males were treated. These findings suggest that the function of the DA system in mate behavior may be similar between

3D Holographic Observatory for Long-term Monitoring of Complex Behaviors in Drosophila

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S. Santosh; Sun, Yaning; Zou, Sige; Hong, Jiarong

2016-09-01

Drosophila is an excellent model organism towards understanding the cognitive function, aging and neurodegeneration in humans. The effects of aging and other long-term dynamics on the behavior serve as important biomarkers in identifying such changes to the brain. In this regard, we are presenting a new imaging technique for lifetime monitoring of Drosophila in 3D at spatial and temporal resolutions capable of resolving the motion of limbs and wings using holographic principles. The developed system is capable of monitoring and extracting various behavioral parameters, such as ethograms and spatial distributions, from a group of flies simultaneously. This technique can image complicated leg and wing motions of flies at a resolution, which allows capturing specific landing responses from the same data set. Overall, this system provides a unique opportunity for high throughput screenings of behavioral changes in 3D over a long term in Drosophila.

Long-term aging behaviors in a model soft colloidal system.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qi; Peng, Xiaoguang; McKenna, Gregory B

2017-02-15

Colloidal and molecular systems share similar behaviors near to the glass transition volume fraction or temperature. Here, aging behaviors after volume fraction up-jump (induced by performing temperature down-jumps) conditions for a PS-PNIPAM/AA soft colloidal system were investigated using light scattering (diffusing wave spectroscopy, DWS). Both aging responses and equilibrium dynamics were investigated. For the aging responses, long-term experiments (100 000 s) were performed, and both equilibrium and non-equilibrium behaviors of the system were obtained. In the equilibrium state, as effective volume fraction increases (or temperature decreases), the colloidal dispersion displays a transition from the liquid to a glassy state. The equilibrium α-relaxation dynamics strongly depend on both the effective volume fraction and the initial mass concentration for the studied colloidal systems. Compared with prior results from our lab [X. Di, X. Peng and G. B. McKenna, J. Chem. Phys., 2014, 140, 054903], the effective volume fractions investigated spanned a wider range, to deeper into the glassy domain. The results show that the α-relaxation time τ α of the samples aged into equilibrium deviate from the classical Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann (VFT)-type expectations and the super-Arrhenius signature disappears above the glass transition volume fraction. The non-equilibrium aging response shows that the time for the structural evolution into equilibrium and the α-relaxation time are decoupled. The DWS investigation of the aging behavior after different volume fraction jumps reveals a different non-equilibrium or aging behavior for the considered colloidal systems compared with either molecular glasses or the macroscopic rheology of a similar colloidal dispersions.

Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osterrieder, Daniela

.S. government bonds, we model the time series of the state vector by means of a co-fractional vector autoregressive model. The implication is that yields of all maturities exhibit nonstationary, yet mean-reverting, long-memory behavior of the order d ≈ 0.87. The long-run dynamics of the state vector are driven......We propose a model for the term structure of interest rates that is a generalization of the discrete-time, Gaussian, affine yield-curve model. Compared to standard affine models, our model allows for general linear dynamics in the vector of state variables. In an application to real yields of U...... forecasts that outperform several benchmark models, especially at long forecasting horizons....

Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term behavior of buffer. Document prepared by other institute, based on the trust contract

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Takaji, Kazuhiko

2002-02-01

On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the external force is affected to buffer for a long period of time. So, it is necessary to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer to the external force, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, the applicable constitutive model have been narrowed down from within many one for clay proposed up to the present, from the viewpoint of adoption possibility to the evaluation of the long-term mechanical behavior for buffer. To put it concretely, the investigation of constitutive models for clay, the applicability confirmation of the representative model by analysis using test data, and the proposal of experimental method available for simulation analysis is carried out. The results of the elemental test simulations using Adachi-Oka model and Sekiguchi-Ohta model as the representative model of ''Over stress model'' and Flow surface model'' are as follows. Both of the models are not make much difference. A limited part of the test results is expressed suitably according to the appropriate decision of viscous parameters, but the blanket behavior of each tests is not expressed suitably in either model. (author)

Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichikawa, Yasuaki

2004-02-01

Micro-structure of rock plays an essential role for their long-term behavior. For understanding long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (CLSM) under uniaxial compression (before loading and at each loading stage), 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, and 3) a study of strong discontinuity analysis included in the homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. First, CLSM was used to acquire clearly focused three-dimensional images of granite specimens, and observed the change of microscale structure including the mineral configuration under applying uniaxial compression stress. Then though microcracks have ever thought to be initiated and propagated on intergranular boundaries, we understand through the CLSM observation that new microcracks are generated from the ends of pre-existing cracks which are distributed in quartz and biotite. Second, we showed the results of stress-relaxation test of granite specimens observed by an optical microscope under water-saturated triaxial compression condition. Since microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock, we managed the experiments with careful attention of 1) keeping constant edge-displacement and constant strain in the whole specimen accurately, and 2) measuring the relaxed stress exactly. Next, in order to simulate the experimental results which indicate that initiation and propagation of microcracks control the stress-relaxation phenomenon, we introduce a homogenization analysis procedure together with the strong discontinuity analysis which has recently established the mechanical implication and mathematical foundation. The numerical results show that we can

Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term mechanical behavior of buffer. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaji, Kazuhiko; Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Shimogouchi, Takafumi; Shiratake, Toshikazu; Tamura, Hirokuni

2004-02-01

On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining each ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the various external forces will be affected to buffer intricately for a long period of time. So, to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer against the external force is important, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, several sets of parameters are chosen for the previously selected two constitutive models, Sekiguchi-Ohta model and Adachi-Oka model, and the element tests and mock-up tests are simulated using these parameters. Through the simulation, applicability of the constitutive models and parameters is examined. Moreover, simulation analyses of EBS using these parameters is examined. Moreover, simulation analyses of EBS using these parameters were carried out, and mechanical behavior is evaluated over a long period of time. Analysis estimated the amount of settlement of the over pack, the stress state of buffer material, the reaction force to a base rock, etc., and the result that EBS is mechanically stable over a long period of time was obtained. Next, in order to prove analyses results a side, literature survey was conducted about geological age, the dynamics history of a Smectite layer. The outline plan was drawn up about the natural analogue verification method and preliminary examination was performed about the applicability of Freezing Sampling'. (author)

Long-Term Bending Creep Behavior of Thin-Walled CFRP Tendon Pretensioned Spun Concrete Poles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni P. Terrasi

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the long-term behavior of a series of highly-loaded, spun concrete pole specimens prestressed with carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP tendons, which were subjected to outdoor four-point bending creep tests since 1996 in the frame of collaboration with the Swiss precast concrete producer, SACAC (Società Anonima Cementi Armati Centrifugati. The 2 m span cylindrical beams studied are models for lighting poles produced for the last 10 years and sold on the European market. Five thin-walled pole specimens were investigated (diameter: 100 mm; wall-thickness: 25–27 mm. All specimens were produced in a pretensioning and spinning technique and were prestressed by pultruded CFRP tendons. Initially, two reference pole specimens were tested in quasi-static four-point bending to determine the short-term failure moment and to model the short-term flexural behavior. Then, three pole specimens were loaded to different bending creep moments: while the lowest loaded specimen was initially uncracked, the second specimen was loaded with 50% of the short-term bending failure moment and exhibited cracking immediately after load introduction. The highest loaded pole specimen sustained a bending moment of 72% of the short-term bending failure moment for 16.5 years before failing in July 2013, due to the bond failure of the tendons, which led to local crushing of the high-performance spun concrete (HPSC. Besides this, long-term monitoring of the creep tests has shown a limited time- and temperature-dependent increase of the deflections over the years, mainly due to the creep of the concrete. A concrete creep-based model allowed for the calculation of the long-term bending curvatures with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the pole specimens showed crack patterns that were stable over time and minimal slippage of the tendons with respect to the pole’s end-faces for the two lower load levels. The latter proves the successful and durable

Long-term leaching behavior of vitrified high-level wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Sonobe, Hitoshi; Sasaki, Noriaki; Kashihara, Hidechiyo

1985-01-01

A long-term Soxhlet leaching test, long-term static leaching test, solubility evaluation test and actual-scale glass solid leaching test were carried out for simulated vitrified wastes. Under high flow-rate leachate conditions, the leaching of high-solubility substances such as B and Na increases almost linearly with time while that of Fe, Ni and rare earth metals strongly depends on their solubility. The overall leaching rate changes (tends to decrease) with time under static conditions. The elution or diffusion is the rate determining step in the earlier region of the leaching process while the solubilities of major components have greater effects in the latter region. The change of the dominant leaching mechanism is delayed more largely as the surface-area to leachate-volume (SA/V) ratio decreases. Actual-scale glass specimens showed almost the same leaching behaviors as small-scale ones. If cracks exist in glass solid, the leaching in them is slow causing little effects on the overall leaching rate. This may be due to the fact that solubility-dependent leaching is occuring in the cracks. The long-term static leaching observations were not satisfactorily explained by the MCC-3 type solubility test results. It is important to clarify the solubility-dependent leaching behaviors at large SA/V ratios. (Nogami, K.)

Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

Science.gov (United States)

Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

2012-01-01

Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

Long-term deflection and flexural behavior of reinforced concrete beams with recycled aggregate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Won-Chang; Yun, Hyun-Do

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Long-term deformation of recycled aggregate concrete beams was examined. • Three beams were monitored for over 380 days. • Influence of recycled aggregate on the long-term performance. • Comparison of that between normal and recycled aggregate concrete beams. - Abstract: This paper presents experimental results on the long-term deformations of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) beams for over 1 year (380 days) and flexural behavior of RAC beams after exposure to sustained loading. Three reinforced concrete (RC) beam specimens were fabricated with replacement percentage of aggregate (100% natural aggregate, 100% recycled coarse aggregate, and 50% recycled fine aggregate) and subjected to sustained loading that is 50% of the nominal flexural capacity. During the sustained loading period (380 days), the long-term deflection due to creep and shrinkage was recorded and compared with predicted behavior that was determined based on current specifications (ACI 318 Code). After measuring the long-term deflection for 380 days, four-point bending tests were conducted to investigate the flexural behavior of RC beams after exposure to sustained loading and determine any reduction in flexural capacity. A modified equation to predict the long-term deflection values for RC beams with recycled aggregate is proposed, and the experimental results are compared with the predictions calculated using the ACI 318 Code provisions

Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior. Research document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichikawa, Yasuaki

2003-02-01

Micro-structure of rock plays an essential role for their long-term behavior. For elucidating long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) Conformal Lase Scanning Microscope (LSM) observation of configuration of a joint in granite, its Fourier analysis and the change under uniaxial stress condition, 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, 3) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by LSM under uniaxial compression, and 4) a study of strong discontinuity analysis included in the homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. Rock image processing and analysis become a fundamental procedure to determine rock surface discontinuities. In Chapter 2 LSM that can acquire three-dimensional images is introduced to observe the roughness of discontinuity in a rock specimen. Then, discontinuities appeared on circular sections are identified by LSM and characterized by a Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) analysis. The change of discontinuities is observed under applying stress. Microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock. In Chapter 3 a progressive development of cracking in granite is revealed by using stereoscopic microscope under water-saturated triaxial compression condition. Next by using LSM observe the procedure of micro-cracking under uniaxial compression condition. Obviously the micro-crack initiation and propagation controls the time-dependent behavior of granite. We have analysed the behavior by a viscoelastic theory applied in homogenization method. However since it is difficult to determine the inter-granular properties of constituent crystals and to represent the stress-dependent nonlinear characteristics by this method, we study a strong discontinuity analysis included in the

The use of natural and archaeological analogues for understanding the long-term behavior of nuclear glasses; L'utilisation des analogues naturels et archeologiques pour la comprehension de l'evolution a long terme des verres nucleaires

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Libourel, G.; Verney-Carron, A.; Morlok, A. [CNRS UPR2300, centre de recherches petrographiques et geochimiques (CRPG), Nancy-universite, 15, rue Notre-Dame-des-Pauvres, BP 20, 54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Libourel, G. [INPL, Ecole nationale superieure de geologie (ENSG), Nancy-universite, rue du Doyen-Marcel-Roubault, BP 20, 54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Gin, St. [CEA Marcoule, DEN/SECM/LCLT, 30 (France); Sterpenich, J. [G2R, CNRS-UMR 7566, Nancy-universite, BP 70239, 54506 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy cedex (France); Michelin, A.; Neff, D.; Dillmann, Ph. [Laboratoire archeomateriaux et prevision de l' alteration LAPA/SIS2 M, CEA and CNRS, Bat 637, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif/Yvette cedex (France); Michelin, A.; Dillmann, Ph. [LMC IRAMAT UMR5060 CNRS (France)

2011-02-15

The knowledge of the long-term behavior of nuclear waste in anticipation of ultimate disposal in a deep geological formation is of prime importance in a waste management strategy. If phenomenological models have been developed to predict the long-term behavior of these materials, validating these models remains a challenge, when considering the time scale of radioactive decay of radionuclides of environmental concern, typically 10{sup 4}-10{sup 5} yrs. Here we show how natural or archaeological analogues provide critical constraints not only on the phenomenology of glass alteration and the mechanisms involved, but also on the ability of experimental short-term data to predict long-term alteration in complex environments. (authors)

Study on crystalline rock for evaluating method of long-term behavior. FY2012 (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukui, Katsunori; Hashiba, Kimihiro; Tanno, Takeo; Hikima, Ryoichi; Sanada, Hiroyuki; Sato, Toshinori

2013-12-01

Rock shows time-dependent behavior such as creep/relaxation. With respect to high-level radioactive waste disposal, knowledge of the long-term mechanical stability of shafts and galleries excavated in rock are required, over a period of thousands of years after closure as well as during construction and operation. Therefore, it is very important to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. The purpose of this study is to determine the mechanisms of time-dependent behavior of rock by the precise test (e.g. laboratory creep test), observation and measurement and to develop methods for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. In previous works, testing techniques were established and basic evaluation methods were developed. Recently, some parameters, which required for simulation of time-dependent behavior, were determined for the modeling of biotite granite (Toki granite) distributed around the Mizunami underground research laboratory. However, we were not able to obtain enough data to assess the reliability of the method to evaluate these parameters. This report describes the results of the research activities carried out in fiscal year 2012. In Chapter 1, we provide background and an overview of this study. In Chapter 2, the results of a long-term creep test on Tage tuff, started in fiscal year 1997, are described. In Chapter 3, the experimental results concerning the loading-rate dependency of rock strength were examined to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock. In Chapter 4, the stability of tunnels, under conditions which rock stress is larger than that around a circular tunnel, were examined to obtain useful information on the future plan for in-situ tests in the underground research laboratory. (author)

Modelling long term energy consumption of French residential sector - improving behavioral realism and simulating ambitious scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allibe, Benoit

2012-01-01

This thesis aims to integrate components of an economic model of the behaviors of households in a technological model of French residential sector energy consumption dynamics and to analyze the consequences of this integration on the results of long-term residential energy consumption simulations (2030-2050). The results of this work highlight significant differences between the actual household space heating energy consumptions and those estimated by engineering models. These differences are largely due to the elasticity of thermal comfort demand to thermal comfort price. Our improved model makes it possible to conjointly integrate the concepts of price elasticity and rebound effect (the increase in energy service level following an improvement in energy performance of the equipment providing the service) in a daily behavior model. Regarding space heating consumption, the consequences of this behavioral adaptation - combined with some technical defects - are a significant reduction of the technical and behavioral energy saving potentials (while effective daily use of energy is generally lower than predicted by engineering models) at a national level. This implies that mid and long-term national energy policy targets (a 38% drop in primary energy consumption by 2020 and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared to the 1990 level) will be harder to reach than previously expected for the residential sector. These results also imply that a strong reduction in carbon emissions cannot be achieved solely through the diffusion of efficient technologies and energy conservation behavior but also requires to significantly lower the average carbon content of residential space heating energy through the generalized use of wood energy. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the influence of the resolution of a techno-economic model (i.e. its ability to represent the various values that a variable can have within the modeled system) on its

A prediction method for long-term behavior of prestressed concrete containment vessels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozaki, M.; Abe, T.; Watanabe, Y.; Kato, A.; Yamaguchi, T.; Yamamoto, M.

1995-01-01

This paper presents results of studies on the long-term behavior of PCCVs at Taruga Unit No 2 and Ohi Unit No 3/4 power stations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the measured strain in the concrete and reduction force in the tendons, and to establish the prediction methods for long-term PCCVs behavior. Comparing the measured strains with those calculated due to creep and shrinkage of the concrete, those in contrast were investigated. Furthermore, the reduced tendon forces are calculated considering losses in elasticity, relaxation, creep and shrinkage. The measured reduction in the tendon forces is compared with the calculated. Considering changes in temperature and humidity, the measured strains and tendon forces were in good agreement with those calculated. From the above results, it was confirmed that the residual pre stresses in the PCCVs maintain the predicted values at the design stage, and that the prediction method of long-term behaviors has sufficient reliability. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

Long term bending behavior of ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC beams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghe-Alexandru BARBOS

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Unlike normal concrete (NC the behavior of ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC is different under long-term efforts, if we refer to creep, shrinkage or long-term deflections. It is well known that UHPC has special properties, like compressive strength higher than 150 MPa and tensile strength higher than 20 MPa - in case of UHPC reinforced with steel-fibers. Nevertheless, UHPC behavior is not completely elucidated in what concerns creep straining or serviceability behavior in case of structural elements. Some studies made on UHPC samples shown that creep is significantly reduced if the concrete is subjected to heat treatment and if it contains steel-fiber reinforcement. Relating thereto, it is important to know how does structural elements made of this type of concrete works in service life under long-term loadings. The results obtained on UHPC samples, regarding creep straining from tension or compression efforts may not be generalized in case of structural elements (e.g. beams, slabs, columns subjected to bending. By performing this study, it was aimed to understand the influence of heat treatment and steel-fiber addition on the rheological phenomena of UHPC bended beams.

Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

Science.gov (United States)

Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

2017-04-01

Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

Long-Term Orientation in Trade

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hofstede, G.J.; Jonker, C.M.; Verwaart, D.

2008-01-01

Trust does not work in the same way across cultures. This paper presents an agent model of behavior in trade across Hofstedes cultural dimension of long-term vs. short-term orientation. The situation is based on a gaming simulation, the Trust and Tracing game. The paper investigates the

Simulation of long-term dynamic behavior of runaway electrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yulei; Liu Jian; Zhang Ruili; He Yang

2015-01-01

The secular dynamics of runaway electrons in Tokamak electromagnetic field is studied. The radiation effect is added into a relativistic volume-preserving algorithm to gain long-term stability of calculation. The results shows that the method we used is able to reveal the behavior of a runaway electron in configuration space. (author)

A study on shear behavior of R/C beams subjected to long-term heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maruta, M.; Yamazaki, M.

1993-01-01

In nuclear power plants, many structural members are subjected to long term heating. There are few experimental data available on the behavior especially in shear of reinforced concrete (R/C) members subjected to long term heating. This paper describes a study aimed at experimentally determining the shear behavior of R/C members in nuclear power plant facilities following sustained heating at high temperatures

Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Yucca Mountain Tuff and its Variability, Final Technical Report for Task ORD-FY04-021

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daemen, Jaak J.K.; Ma, Lumin; Zhao, Guohua

2006-01-01

The study of the long term mechanical behavior of Yucca Mountain tuffs is important for several reasons. Long term stability of excavations will affect accessibility (e.g. for inspection purposes), and retrievability. Long term instabilities may induce loading of drip shields and/or emplaced waste, thus affecting drip shield and/or waste package corrosion. Failure of excavations will affect airflow, may affect water flow, and may affect temperature distributions. The long term mechanical behavior of rocks remains an elusive topic, loaded with uncertainties. A variety of approaches have been used to improve the understanding of this complex subject, but it is doubtful that it has reached a stage where firm predictions can be considered feasible. The long term mechanical behavior of ''soft'' rocks, especially evaporites, and in particular rock salt, has been the subject of numerous investigations (e.g. Cristescu and Hunsche, 1998, Cristescu et al, 2002), and basic approaches towards engineering taking into account the long term behavior of such materials have long been well established (e.g. Dreyer, 1972, 1982). The same is certainly not true of ''hard'' rocks. While it long has been recognized that the long term strength of ''hard'' rocks almost certainly is significantly less than that measured during ''short'', i.e. standard (ASTM D 2938), ISRM suggested (Bieniawski et al, 1978) and conventionally used test procedures (e.g. Bieniawski, 1970, Wawersik, 1972, Hoek and Brown, 1980, p. 150), what limited approaches have been taken to develop strategies toward determining the long term mechanical behavior of ''hard'' rock remain in the early research and investigation stage, at best. One early model developed specifically for time dependent analysis of underground ''hard'' rock structures is the phenomenological model by Kaiser and Morgenstern (1981). Brady and Brown (1985, p. 93) state that over a wide range of strain rates, from 10 -8 to 10 2 /s the difference in

Short- and long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in a rat chronic unpredictable stress model.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Yinghong; Wang, Yiqiang; Sun, Xiaoran; Lian, Bo; Sun, Hongwei; Wang, Gang; Du, Zhongde; Li, Qi; Sun, Lin

2017-08-01

This research was aimed to evaluate the behaviors of short- or long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (CUS). Ketamine, a glutamate noncompetitive NMDA receptor antagonist, regulates excitatory amino acid functions, such as anxiety disorders and major depression, and plays an important role in synaptic plasticity and learning and memory. After 42 days of CUS model, male rats received either a single injection of ketamine (10 mg/kg; day 43) or 15 daily injections (days 43-75). The influence of ketamine on behavioral reactivity was assessed 24 hr (short-term) or 7 weeks after ketamine treatment (long-term). Behavioral tests used to assess the effects of these treatments included the sucrose preference (SP), open field (OF), elevated plus maze (EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM) to detect anxiety-like behavior (OF and EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM). Results: Short-term ketamine administration resulted in increases of body weight gain, higher sensitivity to sucrose, augmented locomotor activity in the OF, more entries into the open arms of the EPM, along increased activity in the FS test; all responses indicative of reductions in depression/despair in anxiety-eliciting situations. No significant differences in these behaviors were obtained under conditions of long-term ketamine administration ( p  > .05). The CUS + Ketamine group showed significantly increased activity as compared with the CUS + Vehicle group for analysis of the long-term effects of ketamine (* p   .05). Taken together these findings demonstrate that a short-term administration of ketamine induced rapid antidepressant-like effects in adult male rats exposed to CUS conditions, effects that were not observed in response to the long-term treatment regime.

Murine model of long term obstructive jaundice

Science.gov (United States)

Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A.; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

2016-01-01

Background With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of 3 murine models of obstructive jaundice. Methods C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Results 70% (7/10) of tCL mice died by Day 7, whereas majority 67% (10/15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. 19% (3/16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond Day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 days after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by Day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension as well as severe fibrosis by Day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. Conclusion The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice but long term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. PMID:27916350

Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network for Vehicle Behavior Recognition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiasong Zhu

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Vehicle behavior recognition is an attractive research field which is useful for many computer vision and intelligent traffic analysis tasks. This paper presents an all-in-one behavior recognition framework for moving vehicles based on the latest deep learning techniques. Unlike traditional traffic analysis methods which rely on low-resolution videos captured by road cameras, we capture 4K ( 3840 × 2178 traffic videos at a busy road intersection of a modern megacity by flying a unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV during the rush hours. We then manually annotate locations and types of road vehicles. The proposed method consists of the following three steps: (1 vehicle detection and type recognition based on deep neural networks; (2 vehicle tracking by data association and vehicle trajectory modeling; (3 vehicle behavior recognition by nearest neighbor search and by bidirectional long short-term memory network, respectively. This paper also presents experimental results of the proposed framework in comparison with state-of-the-art approaches on the 4K testing traffic video, which demonstrated the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

Murine model of long-term obstructive jaundice.

Science.gov (United States)

Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

2016-11-01

With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of three murine models of obstructive jaundice. C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Overall, 70% (7 of 10) of tCL mice died by day 7, whereas majority 67% (10 of 15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. A total of 19% (3 of 16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 d after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension and severe fibrosis by day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice, but long-term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term oxytocin administration improves social behaviors in a girl with autistic disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosaka, Hirotaka; Munesue, Toshio; Ishitobi, Makoto; Asano, Mizuki; Omori, Masao; Sato, Makoto; Tomoda, Akemi; Wada, Yuji

2012-08-13

Patients with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) exhibit core autistic symptoms including social impairments from early childhood and mostly show secondary disabilities such as irritability and aggressive behavior based on core symptoms. However, there are still no radical treatments of social impairments in these patients. Oxytocin has been reported to play important roles in multiple social behaviors dependent on social recognition, and has been expected as one of the effective treatments of social impairments of patients with ASDs. We present a case of a 16-year-old girl with autistic disorder who treated by long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray. Her autistic symptoms were successfully treated by two month administration; the girl's social interactions and social communication began to improve without adverse effects. Her irritability and aggressive behavior also improved dramatically with marked decreases in aberrant behavior checklist scores from 69 to 7. This case is the first to illustrate long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray in the targeted treatment of social impairments in a female with autistic disorder. This case suggests that long-term nasal oxytocin spray is promising and well-tolerated for treatment of social impairments of patients with ASDs.

Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

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Renyi Cao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

Synthesis on the long term behavior of spent nuclear fuel. Vol.1,2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poinssot, Ch.; Toulhoat, P.; Grouiller, J.P.; Pavageau, J.; Piron, J.P.; Pelletier, M.; Dehaudt, Ph.; Cappelaere, Ch.; Limon, R.; Desgranges, L.; Jegou, Ch.; Corbel, C.; Maillard, S.; Faure, M.H.; Cicariello, J.C.; Masson, M.

2001-01-01

The aim of this report is to present the major objectives, the key scientific issues, and the preliminary results of the research conducted in France in the framework of the third line of the 1991 Law, on the topic of the long term behavior of spent nuclear fuel in view of long term storage or geological disposal. Indeed, CEA launched in 1998 the Research Program on the Long Term Behavior of Spent Nuclear Fuel (abbreviated and referred to as PRECCI in French; Poinssot, 1998) the aim of which is to study and assess the ability of spent nuclear fuel packages to keep their initially allocated functions in interim storage and geological disposal: total containment and recovery functions for duration up to hundreds of years (long term or short-term interim storage and/or first reversible stages of geological disposal) and partial confinement function (controlled fluxes of RN) for thousands of years in geological disposal. This program has to allow to obtain relevant and reliable data concerning the long term behavior of the spent fuel packages so that feasibility of interim storage and/or geological disposal can be assessed and demonstrated as well as optimized. Within this framework, this report presents for every possible scenario of evolution (closed system, in Presence of water in presence of gases) what are estimated to be the most relevant evolution mechanism. For the most relevant scientific issues hence defined, a complete scientific review of the best state of knowledge is subsequently here given thus allowing to draw a clear guideline of the major R and D issues for the next years. (authors)

Long-term Behavior of Hydrocarbon Production Curves

Science.gov (United States)

Lovell, A.; Karra, S.; O'Malley, D.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Srinivasan, G.

2017-12-01

Recovering hydrocarbons (such as natural gas) from naturally-occurring formations with low permeability has had a huge impact on the energy sector, however, recovery rates are low due to poor understanding of recovery and transport mechanisms [1]. The physical mechanisms that control the production of hydrocarbon are only partially understood. Calculations have shown that the short-term behavior in the peak of the production curve is understood to come from the free hydrocarbons in the fracture networks, but the long-term behavior of these curves is often underpredicted [2]. This behavior is thought to be due to small scale processes - such as matrix diffusion, desorption, and connectivity in the damage region around the large fracture network. In this work, we explore some of these small-scale processes using discrete fracture networks (DFN) and the toolkit dfnWorks [3], the matrix diffusion, size of the damage region, and distribution of free gas between the fracture networks and rock matrix. Individual and combined parameter spaces are explored, and comparisons of the resulting production curves are made to experimental site data from the Haynesville formation [4]. We find that matrix diffusion significantly controls the shape of the tail of the production curve, while the distribution of free gas impacts the relative magnitude of the peak to the tail. The height of the damage region has no effect on the shape of the tail. Understanding the constrains of the parameter space based on site data is the first step in rigorously quantifying the uncertainties coming from these types of systems, which can in turn optimize and improve hydrocarbon recovery. [1] C. McGlade, et. al., (2013) Methods of estimating shale gas resources - comparison, evaluation, and implications, Energy, 59, 116-125 [2] S. Karra, et. al., (2015) Effect of advective flow in fractures and matrix diffusion on natural gas production, Water Resources Research, 51(10), 8646-8657 [3] J.D. Hyman, et

Study of archaeological analogs for the validation of nuclear glass long-term behavior models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verney-Carron, A.

2008-10-01

Fractured archaeological glass blocks collected from a shipwreck discovered in the Mediterranean Sea near Embiez Island (Var) were investigated because of their morphological analogy with vitrified nuclear waste and of a known and stable environment. These glasses are fractured due to a fast cooling after they were melted (like nuclear glass) and have been altered for 1800 years in seawater. This work results in the development and the validation of a geochemical model able to simulate the alteration of a fractured archaeological glass block over 1800 years. The kinetics associated with the different mechanisms (interdiffusion and dissolution) and the thermodynamic parameters of the model were determined by leaching experiments. The model implemented in HYTEC software was used to simulate crack alteration over 1800 years. The consistency between simulated alteration thicknesses and measured data on glass blocks validate the capacity of the model to predict long-term alteration. This model is able to account for the results from the characterization of crack network and its state of alteration. The cracks in the border zone are the most altered due to a fast renewal of the leaching solution, whereas internal cracks are thin because of complex interactions between glass alteration and transport of elements in solution (influence of initial crack aperture and of the crack sealing). The lowest alteration thicknesses, as well as their variability, can be explained. The analog behavior of archaeological and nuclear glasses from leaching experiments makes possible the transposition of the model to nuclear glass in geological repository. (author)

Thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass - long term behavior modeling; Etude de la stabilite thermique du verre nucleaire. Modelisation de son evolution a long terme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Orlhac, X

2000-07-01

The thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass was investigated experimentally and by modeling to predict its long-term evolution at low temperature. The crystallization mechanisms were analyzed by studying devitrification in the supercooled liquid. Three main crystalline phases were characterized (CaMoO{sub 4}, CeCO{sub 2}, ZnCr{sub 2}O{sub 4}). Their crystallisation was TO 4.24 wt%, due to the low concentration of the constituent elements. The nucleation and growth curves showed that platinoid elements catalysed nucleation but did not affect growth, which was governed by volume diffusion. The criteria of classic nucleation theory were applied to determine the thermodynamic and diffusional activation energies. Viscosity measurements illustrate the analogy between the activation energy of viscous flow and diffusion, indicating control of crystallization by viscous flow phenomena. The combined action of nucleation and growth was assessed by TTT plots, revealing a crystallization equilibrium line that enables the crystallized fractions to be predicted over the long term. The authors show that hetero-genetics catalyze the transformation without modifying the maximum crystallized fraction. A kinetic model was developed to describe devitrification in the glass based on the nucleation and growth curves alone. The authors show that the low-temperature growth exhibits scale behavior (between time and temperature) similar to thermo-rheological simplicity. The analogy between the resulting activation energy and that of the viscosity was used to model growth on the basis of viscosity. After validation with a simplified (BaO{sub 2}SiO{sub 2}) glass, the model was applied to the containment glass. The result indicated that the glass remained completely vitreous after a cooling scenario with the one measured at the glass core. Under isothermal conditions, several million years would be required to reach the maximum theoretical crystallization fraction. (author)

Super long-term creep tests of advanced HP and IP rotor steels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tchizhik, A A [The Polzunov Central Boiler and Turbine Institute, Department the Fatigue Life of Materials for Power Plans Equipment, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

1999-12-31

A creep model has been developed for predicting the long-term creep behavior, in excess of 200,000 h for advanced materials.The new creep theory is based on a continuum microdamage model and is used to calculate the fields of stress and strain and wedge and cavities damage in critical components of steam and gas turbines. The application of this new model increases the reliability and service life of modern turbines. The accuracy of the model to predict long - term creep behavior, creep ductility was verified using the data bank of super long-term creep tests of advanced materials. (orig.) 12 refs.

Super long-term creep tests of advanced HP and IP rotor steels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tchizhik, A.A. [The Polzunov Central Boiler and Turbine Institute, Department the Fatigue Life of Materials for Power Plans Equipment, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

1998-12-31

A creep model has been developed for predicting the long-term creep behavior, in excess of 200,000 h for advanced materials.The new creep theory is based on a continuum microdamage model and is used to calculate the fields of stress and strain and wedge and cavities damage in critical components of steam and gas turbines. The application of this new model increases the reliability and service life of modern turbines. The accuracy of the model to predict long - term creep behavior, creep ductility was verified using the data bank of super long-term creep tests of advanced materials. (orig.) 12 refs.

Effects of long-term elevated temperature on covering, sheltering and righting behaviors of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lisheng; Zhang, Lingling; Shi, Dongtao; Wei, Jing; Chang, Yaqing

2017-01-01

Increases in ocean temperature due to climate change are predicted to change the behaviors of marine invertebrates. Altered behaviors of keystone ecosystem engineers such as echinoderms will have consequences for the fitness of individuals, which are expected to flow on to the local ecosystem. Relatively few studies have investigated the behavioral responses of echinoderms to long-term elevated temperature. We investigated the effects of exposure to long-term (∼31 weeks) elevated temperature (∼3 °C above the ambient water temperature) on covering, sheltering and righting behaviors of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius. Long-term elevated temperature showed different effects on the three behaviors. It significantly decreased covering behavior, including both covering behavior reaction (time to first covering) and ability (number of covered sea urchins and number of shells used for covering). Conversely, exposure to long-term elevated temperature significantly increased sheltering behavior. Righting response in S. intermedius was not significantly different between temperature treatments. The results provide new information into behavioral responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. PMID:28348933

Phenomenological study on crystalline rock for evaluating of long-term behavior (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okubo, Seisuke; Fukui, Katsunori; Hashiba, Kimihiro; Hikima, Ryoichi; Tanno, Takeo; Sanada, Hiroyuki; Matsui, Hiroya; Sato, Toshinori

2012-02-01

Rock, under in situ conditions, shows time-dependent behavior such as creep/relaxation. With respect to high-level radioactive waste disposal, knowledge of the long-term mechanical stability of shafts and galleries excavated in rock is required, not only during construction and operation but also over a period of thousands of years after closure. Therefore, it is very important to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. The purpose of this study is determining the mechanisms of time-dependent behavior of rock by precise testing, observation and measurement in order to develop methods for evaluating long-term mechanical stability of a rock mass. In the previous work, testing techniques have been established and basic evaluation methods were developed. Recently, some parameters needed for simulation of time-dependent behavior were determined at the Mizunami underground research facilities. However, sufficient data to check the reliability of the evaluation method for these parameters were not available. This report describes the results of the activities in fiscal year 2010. In Chapter 1, we provide an overview and the background to this study. In Chapter 2, the results of a long-term creep test on Tage tuff, started in fiscal year 1997 are described. In Chapter 3, the relation of loading-rate dependency of strength and stress dependency of creep life, the relation of time dependency, probability distribution and size effects are discussed to indicate more clearly the meaning of the value of 'n' to express the degree of time dependency of the rock. Furthermore, past studies concerning the value of 'n' are reviewed and the tests that could be carried out in future studies of mechanical properties and time dependency of Toki granite are considered in this Chapter. In Chapter 4, failure criterions of a rock mass considering time dependency are discussed. In Chapter 5, the FEM analysis implemented with a generalized

Short-Term Expectation Formation Versus Long-Term Equilibrium Conditions: The Danish Housing Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Hetland

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The primary contribution of this paper is to establish that the long-swings behavior observed in the market price of Danish housing since the 1970s can be understood by studying the interplay between short-term expectation formation and long-run equilibrium conditions. We introduce an asset market model for housing based on uncertainty rather than risk, which under mild assumptions allows for other forms of forecasting behavior than rational expectations. We test the theory via an I(2 cointegrated VAR model and find that the long-run equilibrium for the housing price corresponds closely to the predictions from the theoretical framework. Additionally, we corroborate previous findings that housing markets are well characterized by short-term momentum forecasting behavior. Our conclusions have wider relevance, since housing prices play a role in the wider Danish economy, and other developed economies, through wealth effects.

Intermediate-term emotional bookkeeping is necessary for long-term reciprocal grooming partner preferences in an agent-based model of macaque groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellen Evers

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Whether and how primates are able to maintain long-term affiliative relationships is still under debate. Emotional bookkeeping (EB, the partner-specific accumulation of emotional responses to earlier interactions, is a candidate mechanism that does not require high cognitive abilities. EB is difficult to study in real animals, due to the complexity of primate social life. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model based on macaque behavior, the EMO-model, that implements arousal and two emotional dimensions, anxiety-FEAR and satisfaction-LIKE, which regulate social behavior. To implement EB, model individuals assign dynamic LIKE attitudes towards their group members, integrating partner-specific emotional responses to earlier received grooming episodes. Two key parameters in the model were varied to explore their effects on long-term affiliative relationships: (1 the timeframe over which earlier affiliation is accumulated into the LIKE attitudes; and (2 the degree of partner selectivity. EB over short and long timeframes gave rise to low variation in LIKE attitudes, and grooming partner preferences were only maintained over one to two months. Only EB over intermediate-term timeframes resulted in enough variation in LIKE attitudes, which, in combination with high partner selectivity, enables individuals to differentiate between regular and incidental grooming partners. These specific settings resulted in a strong feedback between differentiated LIKE attitudes and the distribution of grooming, giving rise to strongly reciprocated partner preferences that could be maintained for longer periods, occasionally up to one or two years. Moreover, at these settings the individual’s internal, socio-emotional memory of earlier affiliative episodes (LIKE attitudes corresponded best to observable behavior (grooming partner preferences. In sum, our model suggests that intermediate-term LIKE dynamics and high partner selectivity seem most plausible for

Intermediate-term emotional bookkeeping is necessary for long-term reciprocal grooming partner preferences in an agent-based model of macaque groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Evers, Ellen; de Vries, Han; Spruijt, Berry M; Sterck, Elisabeth H M

2016-01-01

Whether and how primates are able to maintain long-term affiliative relationships is still under debate. Emotional bookkeeping (EB), the partner-specific accumulation of emotional responses to earlier interactions, is a candidate mechanism that does not require high cognitive abilities. EB is difficult to study in real animals, due to the complexity of primate social life. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model based on macaque behavior, the EMO-model, that implements arousal and two emotional dimensions, anxiety-FEAR and satisfaction-LIKE, which regulate social behavior. To implement EB, model individuals assign dynamic LIKE attitudes towards their group members, integrating partner-specific emotional responses to earlier received grooming episodes. Two key parameters in the model were varied to explore their effects on long-term affiliative relationships: (1) the timeframe over which earlier affiliation is accumulated into the LIKE attitudes; and (2) the degree of partner selectivity. EB over short and long timeframes gave rise to low variation in LIKE attitudes, and grooming partner preferences were only maintained over one to two months. Only EB over intermediate-term timeframes resulted in enough variation in LIKE attitudes, which, in combination with high partner selectivity, enables individuals to differentiate between regular and incidental grooming partners. These specific settings resulted in a strong feedback between differentiated LIKE attitudes and the distribution of grooming, giving rise to strongly reciprocated partner preferences that could be maintained for longer periods, occasionally up to one or two years. Moreover, at these settings the individual's internal, socio-emotional memory of earlier affiliative episodes (LIKE attitudes) corresponded best to observable behavior (grooming partner preferences). In sum, our model suggests that intermediate-term LIKE dynamics and high partner selectivity seem most plausible for primates relying on

Intermediate-term emotional bookkeeping is necessary for long-term reciprocal grooming partner preferences in an agent-based model of macaque groups

Science.gov (United States)

Evers, Ellen; de Vries, Han; Spruijt, Berry M.

2016-01-01

Whether and how primates are able to maintain long-term affiliative relationships is still under debate. Emotional bookkeeping (EB), the partner-specific accumulation of emotional responses to earlier interactions, is a candidate mechanism that does not require high cognitive abilities. EB is difficult to study in real animals, due to the complexity of primate social life. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model based on macaque behavior, the EMO-model, that implements arousal and two emotional dimensions, anxiety-FEAR and satisfaction-LIKE, which regulate social behavior. To implement EB, model individuals assign dynamic LIKE attitudes towards their group members, integrating partner-specific emotional responses to earlier received grooming episodes. Two key parameters in the model were varied to explore their effects on long-term affiliative relationships: (1) the timeframe over which earlier affiliation is accumulated into the LIKE attitudes; and (2) the degree of partner selectivity. EB over short and long timeframes gave rise to low variation in LIKE attitudes, and grooming partner preferences were only maintained over one to two months. Only EB over intermediate-term timeframes resulted in enough variation in LIKE attitudes, which, in combination with high partner selectivity, enables individuals to differentiate between regular and incidental grooming partners. These specific settings resulted in a strong feedback between differentiated LIKE attitudes and the distribution of grooming, giving rise to strongly reciprocated partner preferences that could be maintained for longer periods, occasionally up to one or two years. Moreover, at these settings the individual’s internal, socio-emotional memory of earlier affiliative episodes (LIKE attitudes) corresponded best to observable behavior (grooming partner preferences). In sum, our model suggests that intermediate-term LIKE dynamics and high partner selectivity seem most plausible for primates relying on

How Do You Motivate Long-Term Behavior Change to Prevent Cancer?

Science.gov (United States)

John P. Pierce PhD, a professor in the Department of Family and Preventive Medicine at the University of California, San Diego and Director of Population Science at Moores Cancer Center, presented "How Do You Motivate Long-Term Behavior Change to Prevent Cancer?" 

Contribution and limits of geochemical calculation codes to evaluate the long term behavior of nuclear waste glasses; Apports et limites des modeles geochimiques pour l'evaluation du comportement a long terme des verres de confinement des dechets radioactifs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritz, B; Crovisier, J L [Universite Louis Pasteur, Centre de Geochimie de la Surface, CNRS ULP, Ecole et Observatoire des Sciences de la Terre, 67 - Strasbourg (France)

1997-07-01

Geochemical models have been intensively developed by researchers since more than twenty five years in order to be able to better understand and/or predict the long term stability/instability of water-rock systems. These geochemical codes were ail built first on a thermodynamic approach deriving from the application of Mass Action Law. The resulting first generation of models allowed to detect or predict the possible mass transfers (thermodynamic models) between aqueous and mineral phases including irreversible dissolutions of primary minerals and/or precipitation near equilibrium of secondary mineral phases. The recent development of models based on combined thermodynamics and kinetics opens the field of Lime dependent reactions prediction. This is crucial if one thinks to combine geochemical and hydrological studies in the so-called coupled models for transport and reaction calculations. All these models are progressively applied to the prediction of long term behavior of mineral phases, and more specifically glasses. In order to succeed in chat specific extension of the models, but also the data bases, there is a great need for additional new data from experimental approaches and from natural analogues. The modelling approach appears than also very useful in order to interpret the results of experimental data and to relate them to long term data extracted from natural analogues. Specific functions for modelling solid solution phases mat' also be used for describing the products of glasses alterations. (authors)

Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

2015-04-01

Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to

Social Stairs : taking the Piano Staircase towards long-term behavioral change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, M.M.R.; Megens, C.J.P.G.; Hoven, van den E.A.W.H.; Hummels, C.C.M.; Brombacher, A.C.; Berkovsky, S.; Freyne, J.

2013-01-01

This paper addresses the development of Social Stairs, an intelligent musical staircase to change people’s behavior in the long-term to take the stairs in favor of the elevator. Through designing with the Experiential Design Landscape (EDL) method, a design opportunity was found that social

Creep deformation behavior at long-term in P23/T23 steels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sawada, K.; Tabuchi, M.; Kimura, K. [National Institute for Materials Science (Japan)

2008-07-01

Creep behavior of ASME P23/T23 steels was investigated and analyzed, focusing on creep strength degradation at long-term. Creep rupture strength at 625 C and 650 C dropped at long-term in both P23 and T23 steels. The stress exponent of minimum creep rate at 625 C and 650 C was 7.8-13 for higher stresses and 3.9-5.3 for lower stresses in the P23/T23 steels. The change of stress exponent with stress levels was consistent with the drop in creep rupture strength at long-term. The Monkman-Grant rule was confirmed in the range examined in P23 steel, while the data points deviated from the rule at long-term in the case of T23 steel. The creep ductility of P23 steel was high over a wide stress and temperature range. On the other hand, in T23 steel, creep ductility at 625 C and 650 C decreased as time to rupture increased. The change in ductility may cause the deviation from the Monkman-Grant rule. Fracture mode changed from transgranular to intergranular fracture in the long-term at 625 C and 650 C. (orig.)

Application feasibility study of evaluation technology for long-term rock behavior. 2. Parameter setting of variable compliance type model and application feasibility study for rock behavior evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Shin; Noda, Masaru; Niunoya, Sumio; Hata, Koji; Matsui, Hiroya; Mikake, Shinichiro

2012-01-01

Creep phenomenon is one of the long-term rock behaviors. In many of rock-creep studies, model and parameter have been verified in 2D analysis using model parameter acquired by uniaxial compression test etc considering rock types. Therefore, in this study model parameter was set by uniaxial compression test with classified rock samples which were taken from pilot boring when the main shaft was constructed. Then, comparison between measured value and 3D excavation analysis with identified parameter was made. By and large, the study showed that validity of identification methodology of parameter to identify reproduction of measured value and analysis method. (author)

PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

2014-01-01

In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

SPIN90 Modulates Long-Term Depression and Behavioral Flexibility in the Hippocampus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dae Hwan Kim

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The importance of actin-binding proteins (ABPs in the regulation of synapse morphology and plasticity has been well established. SH3 protein interacting with Nck, 90 kDa (SPIN90, an Nck-interacting protein highly expressed in synapses, is essential for actin remodeling and dendritic spine morphology. Synaptic targeting of SPIN90 to spine heads or dendritic shafts depends on its phosphorylation state, leading to blockage of cofilin-mediated actin depolymerization and spine shrinkage. However, the physiological role of SPIN90 in long-term plasticity, learning and memory are largely unknown. In this study, we demonstrate that Spin90-knockout (KO mice exhibit substantial deficits in synaptic plasticity and behavioral flexibility. We found that loss of SPIN90 disrupted dendritic spine density in CA1 neurons of the hippocampus and significantly impaired long-term depression (LTD, leaving basal synaptic transmission and long-term potentiation (LTP intact. These impairments were due in part to deficits in AMPA receptor endocytosis and its pre-requisites, GluA1 dephosphorylation and postsynaptic density (PSD 95 phosphorylation, but also by an intrinsic activation of Akt-GSK3β signaling as a result of Spin90-KO. In accordance with these defects, mice lacking SPIN90 were found to carry significant deficits in object-recognition and behavioral flexibility, while learning ability was largely unaffected. Collectively, these findings demonstrate a novel modulatory role for SPIN90 in hippocampal LTD and behavioral flexibility.

Behavioral Specifications of Reward-Associated Long-Term Memory Enhancement in Humans

Science.gov (United States)

Wittmann, Bianca C.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Duzel, Emrah

2011-01-01

Recent functional imaging studies link reward-related activation of the midbrain substantia nigra-ventral tegmental area (SN/VTA), the site of origin of ascending dopaminergic projections, with improved long-term episodic memory. Here, we investigated in two behavioral experiments how (1) the contingency between item properties and reward, (2) the…

Accumulation and long term behavior of radiocesium in tropical plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anjos, R.M.; Carvalho, C.; Mosquera, B.; Macario, K.; Veiga, R.; Sanches, N.; Bastos, J.; Saavedra, R.; Iguatemy, M. [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi (Brazil)

2006-07-01

Full text of publication follows: In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the evaluation of nutrient fluxes and radioactive contaminants in forest and agricultural ecosystems. Several studies on forest ecosystems have been carried out, mostly in Europe, after the Chernobyl accident. Japanese forest sites and native plant species of the Marshall Islands have also been extensively investigated. These studies have been used for various purposes, including the development of models for predicting plant concentrations from soil concentration measurements or the long term of dietary contamination by radiocesium following a fallout nuclear. Cesium is an alkali metal just like potassium and its behavior in nature, as well as in the human body, is similar to that of potassium. Uptake of 137 Cs from contaminated soil represents a significant pathway of human radiation exposure, either due to the direct consumption of cereals, fruits and vegetables or, indirectly, following consumption of milk and meat from animals fed on contaminated vegetable matter. The decline of 137 Cs levels as function of time of fruit trees is of interest given its long life in the field. Therefore, the cesium behavior is important in the design of management strategies to mitigate any negative health effects of radioactivity on the environment. It is also important to apply the current knowledge of the transport and distribution of salts derived from forest ecosystems in agricultural ecosystems, especially for tropical fruit trees. So far, in the South hemisphere there have been only a few studies on this subject, without conclusive results. With this aim, the Laboratory of Radioecology (L.A.R.A.) of the Universidade Federal Fluminense has been performing analyzes of 137 Cs and 40 K concentrations in several tropical plants (guava, mango, avocado, pomegranate, papaya, manioc and chili pepper trees) in order to determine the accumulation of these radionuclides throughout these trees and

Accumulation and long term behavior of radiocesium in tropical plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anjos, R.M.; Carvalho, C.; Mosquera, B.; Macario, K.; Veiga, R.; Sanches, N.; Bastos, J.; Saavedra, R.; Iguatemy, M.

2006-01-01

Full text of publication follows: In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the evaluation of nutrient fluxes and radioactive contaminants in forest and agricultural ecosystems. Several studies on forest ecosystems have been carried out, mostly in Europe, after the Chernobyl accident. Japanese forest sites and native plant species of the Marshall Islands have also been extensively investigated. These studies have been used for various purposes, including the development of models for predicting plant concentrations from soil concentration measurements or the long term of dietary contamination by radiocesium following a fallout nuclear. Cesium is an alkali metal just like potassium and its behavior in nature, as well as in the human body, is similar to that of potassium. Uptake of 137 Cs from contaminated soil represents a significant pathway of human radiation exposure, either due to the direct consumption of cereals, fruits and vegetables or, indirectly, following consumption of milk and meat from animals fed on contaminated vegetable matter. The decline of 137 Cs levels as function of time of fruit trees is of interest given its long life in the field. Therefore, the cesium behavior is important in the design of management strategies to mitigate any negative health effects of radioactivity on the environment. It is also important to apply the current knowledge of the transport and distribution of salts derived from forest ecosystems in agricultural ecosystems, especially for tropical fruit trees. So far, in the South hemisphere there have been only a few studies on this subject, without conclusive results. With this aim, the Laboratory of Radioecology (L.A.R.A.) of the 'Universidade Federal Fluminense' has been performing analyzes of 137 Cs and 40 K concentrations in several tropical plants (guava, mango, avocado, pomegranate, papaya, manioc and chili pepper trees) in order to determine the accumulation of these radionuclides throughout these trees

Physicochemical properties and long-term behavior of french R7T7 nuclear waste glass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vernaz, E.

1990-01-01

The French R7T7 nuclear glass composition was carefully selected to allow incorporation of some thirty different oxides found in fission product solutions. The resulting glass exhibits very low crystallization, and its physical and chemical properties are very similar to those of standard industrial glasses. Nuclear glasses have been shown to withstand α doses corresponding to several hundred thousand years under repository conditions. Predicting the long-term behavior of fission product glasses subjected to aqueous corrosion is no doubt the most difficult aspect of the problem. Predictions are necessarily based on mathematical models. A substantial research effort has been undertaken to identify all the basic corrosion mechanisms liable to control long-term alteration. These mechanisms are now relatively well understood, and provide the basis for developing the indispensable models. Realistic storage conditions exist under which glass alteration occurs at a very slow rate, and can fulfill its role as the first containment barrier for several tens of thousands of years

Automated analysis of long-term grooming behavior in Drosophila using a k-nearest neighbors classifier

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Victoria W; Shirasu-Hiza, Mimi

2018-01-01

Despite being pervasive, the control of programmed grooming is poorly understood. We addressed this gap by developing a high-throughput platform that allows long-term detection of grooming in Drosophila melanogaster. In our method, a k-nearest neighbors algorithm automatically classifies fly behavior and finds grooming events with over 90% accuracy in diverse genotypes. Our data show that flies spend ~13% of their waking time grooming, driven largely by two major internal programs. One of these programs regulates the timing of grooming and involves the core circadian clock components cycle, clock, and period. The second program regulates the duration of grooming and, while dependent on cycle and clock, appears to be independent of period. This emerging dual control model in which one program controls timing and another controls duration, resembles the two-process regulatory model of sleep. Together, our quantitative approach presents the opportunity for further dissection of mechanisms controlling long-term grooming in Drosophila. PMID:29485401

Long-term behavior of aortic intramural hematomas and penetrating ulcers.

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Alan S; Ziganshin, Bulat A; Charilaou, Paris; Tranquilli, Maryann; Rizzo, John A; Elefteriades, John A

2016-02-01

For intramural hematoma and penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer, long-term behavior and treatment are controversial. This study evaluates the long-term behavior of intramural hematoma and penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer, including radiologic follow-up and survival analysis. Between 1995 and 2014, 108 patients (mean age, 70.8 ± 10 years; 56% female) presented with intramural hematoma or penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer to Yale-New Haven Hospital (New Haven, Conn). We reviewed the medical records, radiology, and online mortality databases. Ten of 55 patients (18%) with intramural hematoma and 17 of 53 patients (32%) with penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer had rupture state symptoms on admission, both greater than type A (8%) or type B dissection (4%) (P hematoma with follow-up imaging, 8 of 14 (57%) worsened (mean follow-up, 9.4 months) and 6 (43%) underwent late surgery. For patients with penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer with follow-up imaging, 6 of 20 (30%) worsened and underwent late surgery, and 11 (55%) showed no change (mean follow-up, 34.3 months). Overall survivals were 77%, 70%, 58%, and 33% at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. No operative deaths occurred for patients with nonrupture state. Patients with penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer with initial surgical treatment had better long-term survival than patients treated medically (P = .037). In the intramural hematoma group, no such difference was observed (P = .10). At presentation, the incidence of early rupture of intramural hematoma and penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer was higher than for typical dissection. For branch vessels, intramural hematoma never occludes branch arteries. On imaging follow-up, patients with intramural hematoma and penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer rarely improved, with late surgery commonly needed. Better survival was observed for the initial surgical management of patients with penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer compared with initial medical management. Copyright © 2016

Contribution and limits of geochemical calculation codes to evaluate the long term behavior of nuclear waste glasses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritz, B.; Crovisier, J.L.

1997-01-01

Geochemical models have been intensively developed by researchers since more than twenty five years in order to be able to better understand and/or predict the long term stability/instability of water-rock systems. These geochemical codes were ail built first on a thermodynamic approach deriving from the application of Mass Action Law. The resulting first generation of models allowed to detect or predict the possible mass transfers (thermodynamic models) between aqueous and mineral phases including irreversible dissolutions of primary minerals and/or precipitation near equilibrium of secondary mineral phases. The recent development of models based on combined thermodynamics and kinetics opens the field of Lime dependent reactions prediction. This is crucial if one thinks to combine geochemical and hydrological studies in the so-called coupled models for transport and reaction calculations. All these models are progressively applied to the prediction of long term behavior of mineral phases, and more specifically glasses. In order to succeed in chat specific extension of the models, but also the data bases, there is a great need for additional new data from experimental approaches and from natural analogues. The modelling approach appears than also very useful in order to interpret the results of experimental data and to relate them to long term data extracted from natural analogues. Specific functions for modelling solid solution phases mat' also be used for describing the products of glasses alterations. (authors)

Modeling long-term aspects of nuclear waste disposal: the AEGIS experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dove, F.H.

1983-01-01

Modeling the long-term aspects of nuclear waste disposal has its roots in risk analysis of man-made systems like nuclear reactors. Analytical problems can be introduced into the performance assessment of a site-specific repository if an appreciation for the behavior of a natural earth system is not maintained. However, this should not preclude the application of historically useful analytical techniques like bounding strategies in favor of emerging, data-intensive techniques. The technical challenge is to apply existing technology and available data to a complex problem and produce a useful result

Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maura Murru

2010-11-01

Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

2017-11-01

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

Science.gov (United States)

Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

1983-01-01

A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

Government Debt and the Long-Term Interest Rate: Application of an Extended Open-Economy Loanable Funds Model to Poland

OpenAIRE

Yu Hsing

2010-01-01

This paper examines the behavior of the long-term interest rate in Poland based on a sample during 2001.Q1–2009.Q1. Both the demand for and supply of loanable funds are considered. Extending the openeconomy loanable funds model, this paper finds thatmore government debt as a percent of gdp leads to a higher long-term interest rate in Poland and that a higher real Treasury bill rate, more percent change in real GDP, a higher expected inflation rate, a higher world long-term interest rate, and ...

Magnetic Behavior of Sintered NdFeB Magnets on a Long-Term Timescale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minna Haavisto

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Stable polarization of permanent magnets over the lifetime of the application is an important aspect in electrical machine design. Specification of the long-term stability of magnet material is difficult, since knowledge of the phenomenon is incomplete. To be able to optimize magnet material selection, the long-term magnetic behavior of the material must also be understood. This study shows that material with a very square JH curve is stable until a certain critical operating temperature is reached. Major losses are detected as the critical temperature is exceeded. Material with a rounder JH curve does not show a well-defined critical temperature, but increasing losses over a large temperature range. The critical temperature of a material is also dependent on the field conditions. Results differ whether the tests are performed in an open or closed magnetic circuit. In open-circuit tests, the opposing field is not homogeneously distributed throughout the volume of the magnet and thus the long-term behavior is different than that in closed-circuit conditions. Open-circuit tests seem to give bigger losses than closed-circuit tests in cases where the permeance coefficient of the open-circuit sample is considered to be the average permeance coefficient, calculated according to the dimensions of the magnet.

What do short-term and long-term relationships look like? Building the relationship coordination and strategic timing (ReCAST) model.

Science.gov (United States)

Eastwick, Paul W; Keneski, Elizabeth; Morgan, Taylor A; McDonald, Meagan A; Huang, Sabrina A

2018-05-01

Close relationships research has examined committed couples (e.g., dating relationships, marriages) using intensive methods that plot relationship development over time. But a substantial proportion of people's real-life sexual experiences take place (a) before committed relationships become "official" and (b) in short-term relationships; methods that document the time course of relationships have rarely been applied to these contexts. We adapted a classic relationship trajectory-plotting technique to generate the first empirical comparisons between the features of people's real-life short-term and long-term relationships across their entire timespan. Five studies compared long-term and short-term relationships in terms of the timing of relationship milestones (e.g., flirting, first sexual intercourse) and the occurrence/intensity of important relationship experiences (e.g., romantic interest, strong sexual desire, attachment). As romantic interest was rising and partners were becoming acquainted, long-term and short-term relationships were indistinguishable. Eventually, romantic interest in short-term relationships plateaued and declined while romantic interest in long-term relationships continued to rise, ultimately reaching a higher peak. As relationships progressed, participants evidenced more features characteristic of the attachment-behavioral system (e.g., attachment, caregiving) in long-term than short-term relationships but similar levels of other features (e.g., sexual desire, self-promotion, intrasexual competition). These data inform a new synthesis of close relationships and evolutionary psychological perspectives called the Relationship Coordination and Strategic Timing (ReCAST) model. ReCAST depicts short-term and long-term relationships as partially overlapping trajectories (rather than relationships initiated with distinct strategies) that differ in their progression along a normative relationship development sequence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c

Sevoflurane exposure during the neonatal period induces long-term memory impairment but not autism-like behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Woosuk; Park, Saegeun; Hong, Jiso; Park, Sangil; Lee, Soomin; Heo, Junyoung; Kim, Daesoo; Ko, Youngkwon

2015-10-01

To examine whether neonatal exposure to sevoflurane induces autism-like behaviors in mice. There are continuing reports regarding the potential negative effects of anesthesia on the developing brain. Recently, several studies suggest that neurotoxicity caused by anesthesia may lead to neurodevelopmental impairments. However, unlike reports focusing on learning and memory, there are only a few animal studies focusing on neurodevelopmental disorders after general anesthesia. Therefore, we have focused on autism, a representative neurodevelopmental disorder. Neonatal mice (P6-7) were exposed to a titrated dose of sevoflurane for 6 h. Apoptosis was evaluated by assessing the expression level of cleaved (activated) caspase-3. Autism-like behaviors, general activity, anxiety level, and long-term memory were evaluated with multiple behavioral assays. Western blotting confirmed that neonatal exposure to sevoflurane increased the expression level of activated caspase-3, indicative of apoptosis. Mice exposed to sevoflurane also showed impaired long-term memory in fear tests. However, sevoflurane-exposed mice did not exhibit autism-like features in all of the following assays: social interaction (three-chamber test, caged social interaction), social communication (ultrasonic vocalization test), or repetitive behavior (self-grooming test, digging). There were also no differences in general activity (open field test, home cage activity) and anxiety (open field test, light-dark box) after sevoflurane exposure. Our results confirm previous studies that neonatal sevoflurane exposure causes neurodegeneration and long-term memory impairment in mice. However, sevoflurane did not induce autism-like features. Our study suggests that mice are more vulnerable to long-term memory deficits than autism-like behaviors after exposure to sevoflurane. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Synthesis on the long term behavior of spent nuclear fuel. Vol.1,2; Synthese sur l'evolution a long terme des colis de combustibles irradies. Tome 1,2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poinssot, Ch.; Toulhoat, P.; Grouiller, J.P.; Pavageau, J.; Piron, J.P.; Pelletier, M.; Dehaudt, Ph.; Cappelaere, Ch.; Limon, R.; Desgranges, L.; Jegou, Ch.; Corbel, C.; Maillard, S.; Faure, M.H.; Cicariello, J.C.; Masson, M. [CEA Saclay, DEN/DDIN/DPRGD, 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France)

2001-07-01

The aim of this report is to present the major objectives, the key scientific issues, and the preliminary results of the research conducted in France in the framework of the third line of the 1991 Law, on the topic of the long term behavior of spent nuclear fuel in view of long term storage or geological disposal. Indeed, CEA launched in 1998 the Research Program on the Long Term Behavior of Spent Nuclear Fuel (abbreviated and referred to as PRECCI in French; Poinssot, 1998) the aim of which is to study and assess the ability of spent nuclear fuel packages to keep their initially allocated functions in interim storage and geological disposal: total containment and recovery functions for duration up to hundreds of years (long term or short-term interim storage and/or first reversible stages of geological disposal) and partial confinement function (controlled fluxes of RN) for thousands of years in geological disposal. This program has to allow to obtain relevant and reliable data concerning the long term behavior of the spent fuel packages so that feasibility of interim storage and/or geological disposal can be assessed and demonstrated as well as optimized. Within this framework, this report presents for every possible scenario of evolution (closed system, in Presence of water in presence of gases) what are estimated to be the most relevant evolution mechanism. For the most relevant scientific issues hence defined, a complete scientific review of the best state of knowledge is subsequently here given thus allowing to draw a clear guideline of the major R and D issues for the next years. (authors)

Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modelling its Long-Term Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shulzhenko, S.

2016-01-01

Structure of Ukrainian energy sector, its current challenges, drivers of its development and possible long-term pathways, and methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modelling of long-term national energy development.(author).

Neural Rhythms of Change: Long-Term Improvement after Successful Treatment in Children with Disruptive Behavior Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven Woltering

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Neural changes were investigated for children with disruptive behavior problems one year after a treatment program ended. Thirty-nine children and their parents visited the research lab before, after, and a year after treatment ended. During those lab visits, electroencephalography (EEG was recorded during a challenging Go/No-go task. Treatment consisted of intensive 14-week combined cognitive behavioral therapy and parent management training sessions. For the analysis, participants were divided into long-term improvers (IMPs and long-term nonimprovers (NIMPs based on changes in their externalizing problem scores. The results showed early no-go theta power (4–8 Hz, 100–250 ms decreased for long-term IMPs compared to NIMPs. When participants were divided based on changes in their comorbid internalizing symptoms, effects were stronger and reductions in theta power were found for early as well as later phases (250–650 ms. We provided preliminary evidence that theta power is a useful neural measure to trace behavioral change linked to improved self-regulation even up to a year after treatment ended. Results may have implications for the characterization of children with disruptive behavior problems and may lead to the development of novel markers of treatment success.

Short and Long Term Behavioral and Pathological Changes in a Novel Rodent Model of Repetitive Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelly M McAteer

Full Text Available A history of concussion, particularly repeated injury, has been linked to an increased risk for the development of neurodegenerative diseases, particularly chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE. CTE is characterized by abnormal accumulation of hyperphosphorylated tau and deficits in learning and memory. As yet the mechanisms associated with the development of CTE are unknown. Accordingly, the aim of the current study was to develop and characterize a novel model of repetitive mTBI that accurately reproduces the key short and long-term functional and histopathological features seen clinically. Forty male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned to receive 0, 1 or 3x mTBI spaced five days apart using a modified version of the Marmarou impact-acceleration diffuse-TBI model to deliver 110G of linear force. Functional outcomes were assessed six and twelve weeks post-injury, with histopathology assessed twenty-four hours and twelve weeks post-injury. Repetitive mTBI resulted in mild spatial and recognition memory deficits as reflected by increased escape latency on the Barnes maze and decreased time spent in the novel arm of the Y maze. There was a trend towards increased anxiety-like behavior, with decreased time spent in the inner portion of the open field. At 24 hours and 12 weeks post injury, repetitive mTBI animals showed increased tau phosphorylation and microglial activation within the cortex. Increases in APP immunoreactivity were observed in repetitive mTBI animals at 12 weeks indicating long-term changes in axonal integrity. This novel model of repetitive mTBI with its persistent cognitive deficits, neuroinflammation, axonal injury and tau hyperphosphorylation, thus represents a clinically relevant experimental approach to further explore the underlying pathogenesis of CTE.

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

2017-11-03

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

A Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success

Science.gov (United States)

Luong, Ming; Stevens, Jeff

2015-01-01

The Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success, a theoretical stages-of-growth model, explains long-term success in IT outsourcing relationships. Research showed the IT outsourcing relationship life cycle consists of four distinct, sequential stages: contract, transition, support, and partnership. The model was…

Construction of long-term isochronous stress-strain curves by a modeling of short-term creep curves for a Grade 9Cr-1Mo steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Woo-Gon; Yin, Song-Nan; Koo, Gyeong-Hoi

2009-01-01

This study dealt with the construction of long-term isochronous stress-strain curves (ISSC) by a modeling of short-term creep curves for a Grade 9Cr-1Mo steel (G91) which is a candidate material for structural applications in the next generation nuclear reactors as well as in fusion reactors. To do this, tensile material data used in the inelastic constitutive equations was obtained by tensile tests at 550degC. Creep curves were obtained by a series of creep tests with different stress levels of 300MPa to 220MPa at an identical controlled temperature of 550degC. On the basis of these experimental data, the creep curves were characterized by Garofalo's creep model. Three parameters of P 1 , P 2 and P 3 in Garofalo's model were properly optimized by a nonlinear least square fitting (NLSF) analysis. The stress dependency of the three parameters was found to be a linear relationship. But, the P 3 parameter representing the steady state creep rate exhibited a two slope behavior with different stress exponents at a transient stress of about 250 MPa. The long-term creep curves of the G91 steel was modeled by Garofalo's model with only a few short-term creep data. Using the modeled creep curves, the long-term isochronous curves up to 10 5 hours were successfully constructed. (author)

Long-Term Cyclic Oxidation Behavior of Wrought Commercial Alloys at High Temperatures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Bingtao [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

2003-01-01

The oxidation resistance of a high-temperature alloy is dependent upon sustaining the formation of a protective scale, which is strongly related to the alloying composition and the oxidation condition. The protective oxide scale only provides a finite period of oxidation resistance owing to its eventual breakdown, which is especially accelerated under thermal cycling conditions. This current study focuses on the long-term cyclic oxidation behavior of a number of commercial wrought alloys. The alloys studied were Fe- and Ni-based, containing different levels of minor elements, such as Si, Al, Mn, and Ti. Oxidation testing was conducted at 1000 and 1100 C in still air under both isothermal and thermal cycling conditions (1-day and 7-days). The specific aspects studied were the oxidation behavior of chromia-forming alloys that are used extensively in industry. The current study analyzed the effects of alloying elements, especially the effect of minor element Si, on cyclic oxidation resistance. The behavior of oxide scale growth, scale spallation, subsurface changes, and chromium interdiffusion in the alloy were analyzed in detail. A novel model was developed in the current study to predict the life-time during cyclic oxidation by simulating oxidation kinetics and chromium interdiffusion in the subsurface of chromia-forming alloys.

Mediators of a long-term movement abnormality in a Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily L. Ryan

2012-11-01

Despite neonatal diagnosis and life-long dietary restriction of galactose, many patients with classic galactosemia grow to experience significant long-term complications. Among the more common are speech, cognitive, behavioral, ovarian and neurological/movement difficulties. Despite decades of research, the pathophysiology of these long-term complications remains obscure, hindering prognosis and attempts at improved intervention. As a first step to overcome this roadblock we have begun to explore long-term outcomes in our previously reported GALT-null Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia. Here we describe the first of these studies. Using a countercurrent device, a simple climbing assay, and a startle response test to characterize and quantify an apparent movement abnormality, we explored the impact of cryptic GALT expression on phenotype, tested the role of sublethal galactose exposure and galactose-1-phosphate (gal-1P accumulation, tested the impact of age, and searched for potential anatomical defects in brain and muscle. We found that about 2.5% residual GALT activity was sufficient to reduce outcome severity. Surprisingly, sublethal galactose exposure and gal-1P accumulation during development showed no effect on the adult phenotype. Finally, despite the apparent neurological or neuromuscular nature of the complication we found no clear morphological differences between mutants and controls in brain or muscle, suggesting that the defect is subtle and/or is physiologic rather than structural. Combined, our results confirm that, like human patients, GALT-null Drosophila experience significant long-term complications that occur independently of galactose exposure, and serve as a proof of principle demonstrating utility of the GALT-null Drosophila model as a tool for exploring genetic and environmental modifiers of long-term outcome in GALT deficiency.

An expectancy-value theory approach to the long-term modification of smoking behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, R W; Deckner, C W; Mewborn, C R

1978-04-01

Despite the research interest in modifying smoking behavior, therapeutic treatments that can produce long-term cessation have not been demonstrated rigorously. A follow-up study of two attitude change experiments (N = 173) examined the effects of a fear appeal, that is, increasing smokers' awareness and appreciation of the highly noxious consequences of smoking. Although this familiar type of information may be an integral component of many smoking treatment programs, its long-term suppressive effect has not been demonstrated in well-controlled experiments. The results disclosed that 3 months and also 1 year after treatment, a high-fear manipulation had increased significantly the percentage of smokers who were able to stop smoking completely.

Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichikawa, Yasuaki

1997-03-01

One must consider micro-structures of rock and rock mass in order to predict the long-term behavior for more than ten thousand years. First we observe the micro-crack distribution of granite which is commonly distributed in Japan, and is widely used for several structures. The creep under constant load and the relaxation under constant displacement are typical time dependent phenomena, and we performed a series of relaxation tests under microscope observation in laboratory. The specimen that is preserved in water is granite as mentioned above. The aim of this experiment is to observe the sequential propagation of micro-cracks and its affect to the macroscopic response of the rock material under relaxation state. Next, a viscoelastic homogenization method is applied for analyzing the behavior of granite that is composed of several kinds of minerals (i.e., a polycrystalline material). The homogenization method developed for analyzing mechanics of composite materials is a mathematical theory that can describe the macroscopic behavior accounting for the microscopic characteristics with periodic microstructures. In this study, it is applied to a polycrystalline rock which involves a few minerals and micro-cracks. Furthermore, it is required to apply the homogenization analysis for rock materials which show a nonlinear time dependent behavior, so we develop a new elasto-visco-plastic homogenization theory, and its validity is checked for some ground structures made by clay. (author)

Provision or Good Genes? Menstrual Cycle Shifts in Women's Preferences for Short-Term and Long-Term Mates' Altruistic Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryo Oda

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Men's altruism may have evolved, via female choice, as a signal of either their genetic quality or their willingness to allocate resources to offspring. The possibility that men display altruism to signal their genetic quality may be tested by examining women's preference for men's altruism across the stages of the menstrual cycle. Because women can maximize reproductive benefits by mating with men who have “good genes” on high-fertility versus low-fertility days, women should show a heightened preference for male altruism on high-fertility days compared to low-fertility days, and this heightened preference should be more apparent when women evaluate men for short-term sexual relationships than for long-term committed relationships. The possibility that men display altruism to signal their willingness to provision, as opposed to their genetic quality, may be tested by examining women's preference for men's altruism toward different recipients. More specifically, altruistic behavior toward family members may reflect a willingness to provide resources for kin and, hence, willingness to provision, whereas altruistic behavior toward strangers may function as an honest signal of genetic quality. In two samples of young women (TVs = 131 and 481, we found no differences between high- and low-fertility participants in preference for men's altruism, and women preferred men's altruism more in long-term than short-term relationships. The findings suggest that men's altruistic behavior functions as a signal of willingness to provide resources rather than genetic quality.

Nonverbal behavior observation : collaborative gaming method for prediction of conflicts during long-term missions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voynarovskaya, N.; Gorbunov, R.D.; Barakova, E.I.; Ahn, R.M.C.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.; Yang, H.S.; et al., xx

2010-01-01

This paper presents a method for monitoring mental state of small isolated crews during long-term missions (such as space mission, polar expeditions, submarine crews, meteorological stations, and etc). It combines the records of negotiation game with monitoring of the nonverbal behavior of the

Numerical simulation for excavation and long-term behavior of large-scale cavern in soft rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sawada, Masataka; Okada, Tetsuji

2010-01-01

Low-level radioactive waste is planned to be disposed at the depth of more than 50 m in Neogene tuff or tuffaceous sandstone. Generally there are few cracks in sedimentary soft rocks, thus it is considered to be easier to determine permeability of soft rocks than that of discontinuous rocks. On the other hand, sedimentary soft rocks show strong time-dependent behavior, and they are more sensitive to heat, groundwater, and their chemical effect. Numerical method for long-term behavior of underground facilities is necessary to their design and safety assessment. Numerical simulations for excavation of test cavern in disposal site are described in this report. Our creep model was applied to these simulations. Although it is able to reproduce the behavior of soft rock observed in laboratory creep test, simulation using parameters obtained from laboratory tests predicts much larger displacement than that of measurement. Simulation using parameters modified based on in-situ elastic wave measurement and back analysis reproduces measured displacements very well. Behavior of the surrounding rock mass during resaturation after setting of the waste and the engineered barrier system is also simulated. We have a plan to investigate chemical and mechanical interaction among soft rock, tunnel supports and engineered barriers, and to make their numerical models. (author)

Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2014-12-01

Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

Long-term performance and behavior of sows fed high levels of non-starch polysaccharides

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peet-Schwering, van der C.M.C.

2004-01-01

The main objective of this thesis was to investigate the long-term effects of feeding sows high levels of dietary fermentable non-starch polysaccharides CNSP) (i.e., NSP from sugar beet pulp) restrictedly or ad libitum during gestation or ad libitum during lactation on behavior, reproductive

Reinstatement of long-term memory following erasure of its behavioral and synaptic expression in Aplysia

OpenAIRE

Chen, Shanping; Cai, Diancai; Pearce, Kaycey; Sun, Philip Y-W; Roberts, Adam C; Glanzman, David L

2014-01-01

eLife digest Cells called neurons allow information to travel quickly around the body so that we can rapidly respond to any changes that we sense in our environment. This includes non-conscious reactions, such as the knee-jerk reflex in humans. Reflexes and other behaviors can be influenced by long-term memory, and it is thought that long-term memory is stored by changes in the synapses that connect neurons to each other. The reflexes of a sea slug known as Aplysia are often used to study mem...

A long-memory model of motor learning in the saccadic system: a regime-switching approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Aaron L; Shelhamer, Mark

2013-08-01

Maintenance of movement accuracy relies on motor learning, by which prior errors guide future behavior. One aspect of this learning process involves the accurate generation of predictions of movement outcome. These predictions can, for example, drive anticipatory movements during a predictive-saccade task. Predictive saccades are rapid eye movements made to anticipated future targets based on error information from prior movements. This predictive process exhibits long-memory (fractal) behavior, as suggested by inter-trial fluctuations. Here, we model this learning process using a regime-switching approach, which avoids the computational complexities associated with true long-memory processes. The resulting model demonstrates two fundamental characteristics. First, long-memory behavior can be mimicked by a system possessing no true long-term memory, producing model outputs consistent with human-subjects performance. In contrast, the popular two-state model, which is frequently used in motor learning, cannot replicate these findings. Second, our model suggests that apparent long-term memory arises from the trade-off between correcting for the most recent movement error and maintaining consistent long-term behavior. Thus, the model surprisingly predicts that stronger long-memory behavior correlates to faster learning during adaptation (in which systematic errors drive large behavioral changes); greater apparent long-term memory indicates more effective incorporation of error from the cumulative history across trials.

Long-term behaviour of concrete in water saturated media - Experimental and modelling approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peycelon, H; Mazoin, C

2004-07-01

In the context of the nuclear long-lived radioactive waste management, cement-based materials are currently used for waste encapsulation and containers development. Such materials are also likely to be used for engineered barriers in deep repositories. Various types of cement - CEM I, CEM V - have been currently studied, mainly to evaluate materials long-term durability. Studies have been performed on the leaching behavior of hardened cement pastes based on these cements. The effect of temperature is taking into account. Leaching experiments for 25 deg C, 50 deg C and 85 deg C were carried out with a standard test developed at CEA. Experimental results were analyzed and calculations were made to estimate calcium fluxes and degraded thicknesses. Experimental and modelling results were compared. (authors)

Modelling the long-term durability of concrete barriers for radioactive waste disposals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerard, B.; Didry, O.; Marchand, J.; Gerard, B.; Breysse, D.; Hornain, H.

1996-01-01

In the past decades, cement-based materials have been increasingly used for the construction of radioactive-waste barriers. The design of durable structures for this specific application requires a precise knowledge of the evolution of the engineering properties of the materials over a 1000-year period. Given the intricate nature of the physical mechanisms involved, a reliable prediction of the long term behavior of the concrete barriers can only be made through modelling and numerical developments. After a brief literature survey in which the main aspects of the problem are outlined, the features of a new modelling approach are presented. The main originality of this approach resides in the fact that the model considers the various chemical and mechanical solicitations and their eventual couplings. The physical and thermodynamical bases behind the development of the model are detailed. A section of the paper is specifically devoted to the experimental techniques (accelerated leaching test, assessment of the permeability and mechanical behavior of concretes under tensile loading, characterization of the concrete microstructure and microcracking by image-analysis) designed to validate the model. Results of selected numerical simulations are presented in the last section of the paper. The main difficulties associated with the implantation of such a model in a finite-element code are discussed. (author)

Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne [Service de la Corrosion et du Comportement des Materiaux dans leur Environnement, CEA/Saclay - 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel [CIRIMAT UMR 5085, ENSIACET-INPT, 31077 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France)

2004-07-01

For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne; Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel

2004-01-01

For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

Long-Term Symbolic Learning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

2007-01-01

What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part I: theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. D. Diamantides

1998-05-01

Full Text Available The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

Engineering Circular Gliding of Actin Filaments Along Myosin-Patterned DNA Nanotube Rings To Study Long-Term Actin-Myosin Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hariadi, Rizal F; Appukutty, Abhinav J; Sivaramakrishnan, Sivaraj

2016-09-27

Nature has evolved molecular motors that are critical in cellular processes occurring over broad time scales, ranging from seconds to years. Despite the importance of the long-term behavior of molecular machines, topics such as enzymatic lifetime are underexplored due to the lack of a suitable approach for monitoring motor activity over long time periods. Here, we developed an "O"-shaped Myosin Empowered Gliding Assay (OMEGA) that utilizes engineered micron-scale DNA nanotube rings with precise arrangements of myosin VI to trap gliding actin filaments. This circular gliding assay platform allows the same individual actin filament to glide over the same myosin ensemble (50-1000 motors per ring) multiple times. First, we systematically characterized the formation of DNA nanotubes rings with 4, 6, 8, and 10 helix circumferences. Individual actin filaments glide along the nanotube rings with high processivity for up to 12.8 revolutions or 11 min in run time. We then show actin gliding speed is robust to variation in motor number and independent of ring curvature within our sample space (ring diameter of 0.5-4 μm). As a model application of OMEGA, we then analyze motor-based mechanical influence on "stop-and-go" gliding behavior of actin filaments, revealing that the stop-to-go transition probability is dependent on motor flexibility. Our circular gliding assay may provide a closed-loop platform for monitoring long-term behavior of broad classes of molecular motors and enable characterization of motor robustness and long time scale nanomechanical processes.

Sustainable Change Sequence: a framework for developing behavior change interventions for patients with long-term conditions

OpenAIRE

Elwyn, Glyn; Marrin, Katy; Frosch, Dominick; White, James

2014-01-01

Objective\\ud \\ud Interactive interventions are increasingly advocated to support behavior change for patients who have long-term conditions. Such interventions are most likely to achieve behavior change when they are based on appropriate theoretical frameworks. Developers of interventions are faced with a diverse set of behavioral theories that do not specifically address intervention development. The aim of our work was to develop a framework to guide the developers of interactive healthcare...

Short-term and long-term effects of violent media on aggression in children and adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Bushman, Brad J; Huesmann, L Rowell

2006-04-01

To test whether the results of the accumulated studies on media violence and aggressive behavior are consistent with the theories that have evolved to explain the effects. We tested for the existence of both short-term and long-term effects for aggressive behavior. We also tested the theory-driven hypothesis that short-term effects should be greater for adults and long-term effects should be greater for children. Meta-analysis. Children younger than 18 years and adults. Violent media, including TV, movies, video games, music, and comic books. Measures of aggressive behavior, aggressive thoughts, angry feelings, physiological arousal (eg, heart rate, blood pressure), and helping behavior. Effect size estimates were combined using meta-analytic procedures. As expected, the short-term effects of violent media were greater for adults than for children whereas the long-term effects were greater for children than for adults. The results also showed that there were overall modest but significant effect sizes for exposure to media violence on aggressive behaviors, aggressive thoughts, angry feelings, arousal levels, and helping behavior. The results are consistent with the theory that short-term effects are mostly due to the priming of existing well-encoded scripts, schemas, or beliefs, which adults have had more time to encode. In contrast, long-term effects require the learning (encoding) of scripts, schemas, or beliefs. Children can encode new scripts, schemas, and beliefs via observational learning with less interference and effort than adults.

Long Term Expected Revenue of Wind Farms Considering the Bidding Admission Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bashi, Mazaher Haji; Yousefi, G.R.; Bak, Claus Leth

2016-01-01

in the long term expected revenue of wind farms. We show that this consideration could perfectly explain the observed bid shading behavior of wind farm owners. We use a novel market price model with a stochastic model of a wind farm to derive indices describing the uncertainty of bidding admission....... The optimal behavior of the wind farm is then obtained by establishing a multi objective optimization problem and subsequently solved using genetic algorithm. The method is applied to the analysis of long term bidding behavior of a wind farm participating in a Pay-as-Bid (PAB) auction such as Iran Electricity...... Market (IEM). The results demonstrate that wind farm owners change their bid shading behavior in a PAB Auction. However, the expected revenue of the wind farm will also decrease in a PAB auction. As a result, it is not recommended to make an obligation for the wind farms to participate in a PAB auction...

Few long-term consequences after prolonged maternal separation in female Wistar rats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stina Lundberg

Full Text Available Environmental factors during the early-life period are known to have long-term consequences for the adult phenotype. An intimate interplay between genes and environment shape the individual and may affect vulnerability for psychopathology in a sex-dependent manner. A rodent maternal separation model was here used to study the long-term effects of different early-life rearing conditions on adult behavior, HPA axis activity and long-term voluntary alcohol intake in female rats. Litters were subjected to 15 min (MS15 or 360 min (MS360 of daily maternal separation during postnatal day 1-21. In adulthood, the behavioral profiles were investigated using the multivariate concentric square field™ (MCSF test or examined for HPA axis reactivity by cat-odor exposure with subsequent characterization of voluntary alcohol intake and associated changes in HPA axis activity. Adult female MS360 offspring showed mostly no, or only minor, effects on behavior, HPA axis reactivity and long-term alcohol intake relative to MS15. Instead, more pronounced effects were found dependent on changes in the natural hormonal cycle or by the choice of animal supplier. However, changes were revealed in corticosterone load after long-term alcohol access, as females subjected to MS360 had higher concentrations of fecal corticosterone. The present findings are in line with and expand on previous studies on the long-term effects of maternal separation in female rats with regard to behavior, HPA axis activity and voluntary alcohol intake. It can also be a window into further studies detailing how early-life experiences interact with other risk and protective factors to impact the adult phenotype and how possible sex differences play a role.

Phospholipase A₂: the key to reversing long-term memory impairment in a gastropod model of aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Shawn N; Wright, Natasha; Hermann, Petra M; Wildering, Willem C

2013-02-01

Memory failure associated with changes in neuronal circuit functions rather than cell death is a common feature of normal aging in diverse animal species. The (neuro)biological foundations of this phenomenon are not well understood although oxidative stress, particularly in the guise of lipid peroxidation, is suspected to play a key role. Using an invertebrate model system of age-associated memory impairment that supports direct correlation between behavioral deficits and changes in the underlying neural substrate, we show that inhibition of phospholipase A(2) (PLA(2)) abolishes both long-term memory (LTM) and neural defects observed in senescent subjects and subjects exposed to experimental oxidative stress. Using a combination of behavioral assessments and electrophysiological techniques, we provide evidence for a close link between lipid peroxidation, provocation of phospholipase A(2)-dependent free fatty acid release, decline of neuronal excitability, and age-related long-term memory impairments. This supports the view that these processes suspend rather than irreversibly extinguish the aging nervous system's intrinsic capacity for plasticity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Large-distance and long-time asymptotic behavior of the reduced density matrix in the non-linear Schroedinger model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kozlowski, K.K.

2010-12-15

Starting from the form factor expansion in finite volume, we derive the multidimensional generalization of the so-called Natte series for the zero-temperature, time and distance dependent reduced density matrix in the non-linear Schroedinger model. This representation allows one to read-off straightforwardly the long-time/large-distance asymptotic behavior of this correlator. Our method of analysis reduces the complexity of the computation of the asymptotic behavior of correlation functions in the so-called interacting integrable models, to the one appearing in free fermion equivalent models. We compute explicitly the first few terms appearing in the asymptotic expansion. Part of these terms stems from excitations lying away from the Fermi boundary, and hence go beyond what can be obtained by using the CFT/Luttinger liquid based predictions. (orig.)

Modelling the long-term deployment of electricity storage in the global energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despres, Jacques

2015-01-01

The current development of wind and solar power sources calls for an improvement of long-term energy models. Indeed, high shares of variable wind and solar productions have short- and long-term impacts on the power system, requiring the development of flexibility options: fast-reacting power plants, demand response, grid enhancement or electricity storage. Our first main contribution is the modelling of electricity storage and grid expansion in the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We set up new investment mechanisms, where storage development is based on several combined economic values. After categorising the long-term energy models and the power sector modelling tools in a common typology, we showed the need for a better integration of both approaches. Therefore, the second major contribution of our work is the yearly coupling of POLES to a short-term optimisation of the power sector operation, with the European Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (EUCAD). The two-way data exchange allows the long-term coherent scenarios of POLES to be directly backed by the short-term technical detail of EUCAD. Our results forecast a strong and rather quick development of the cheapest flexibility options: grid interconnections, pumped hydro storage and demand response programs, including electric vehicle charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid storage. The more expensive battery storage presumably finds enough system value in the second half of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving the fixed costs of batteries impacts more the investments than improving their efficiency. We also show the explicit dependency between storage and variable renewable energy sources. (author) [fr

Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Naidoo, M

2011-10-01

Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

Long Term Effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioral Group Therapy for Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ceren Gokdag

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study was to conduct systematic review the articles on long term effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral group therapy for treatment of major depressive disorder. Articles in English and Turkish published between the years of 2000 and 2015 (January were searched in national and international databases. The articles that did not include follow-up studies were excluded. Although the main aim of this study is to evaluate permanent effect of the cognitive behavioral group therapy, 21 articles that met the criteria were examined also in terms of some other variables such as research method, therapy characteristics and post test results. The findings of the articles revealed that cognitive-behavioral group therapy is effective for major depressive disorder and post therapy gains are maintained for a long time. [Psikiyatride Guncel Yaklasimlar - Current Approaches in Psychiatry 2016; 8(Supplement 1: 23-38

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part I: theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. D. Diamantides

Full Text Available The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun – either now or in the past, the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.

Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

Development of analysis model for mid and long-term effects of sodium water reaction event in LMR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eoh, Jae Hyuk; Sim, Yoon Sub; Kim, Seong O; Kim, Yeon Sik; Kim, Eui Kwang; Wi, Myung Hwan

2002-04-01

The Sodium-Water Reaction(SWR) is important in the design consideration of a LMR steam generator. To develop the analysis code for long-term effects of SWR, investigation on the characteristics of various SWR analysis code and the assessment of an analysis model for long term effects were performed. In an event of SWR, pressure spikes of wave propagation occur at its initial stage and last for a very short time, and then bulk motion of fluid and reaction products is progressed and lasts for a long time. In a case SWR occurs, a number of hydrogen bubbles produced and sodium is entrained into the bubbles through the gas-liquid bubble interfaces by evaporation or diffusion. The partial pressure of the sodium in a hydrogen bubble is determined as a function of the bubble size, temperature, and pressure, and is rapidly decreased as its size increased. From this, it can be considered that the bulk motion in the later phase of SWR is an axial motion caused by expansion of a single-phase hydrogen gas bubble produced by a reaction in the vicinity of the leak site. Through this investigation, a preliminary simple analysis model for long-term effects of SWR was set up and sensitivity study using the system design parameters such as pressure and temperature of IHTS for KALIMER was performed. Also, a simpler analysis model using the cover gas pressure change related to the production of a hydrogen bubble in a steam generator was developed from the analyses results. These simple analysis models of the reaction site and the pressure behavior with hydrogen production can be used to develop the mid and long-term analysis code for SWR in the KALIMER steam generator design

A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

OpenAIRE

Achdou , Yves; Giraud , Pierre-Noel; Lasry , Jean-Michel; Lions , Pierre-Louis

2016-01-01

International audience; A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is descr...

REMI and ROUSE: Quantitative Models for Long-Term and Short-Term Priming in Perceptual Identification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E.J. Wagenmakers (Eric-Jan); R. Zeelenberg (René); D.E. Huber (David); J.G.W. Raaijmakers (Jeroen)

2003-01-01

textabstractThe REM model originally developed for recognition memory (Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997) has recently been extended to implicit memory phenomena observed during threshold identification of words. We discuss two REM models based on Bayesian principles: a model for long-term priming (REMI;

Communication Behaviors as Predictors of Long-Term Dyadic Adjustment: Personality as a Moderator

OpenAIRE

Ariane Lazaridès; Claude Bélanger; Stéphane Sabourin

2010-01-01

In this longitudinal study, we examined the moderating role of personality in the relationship between communication behaviors and long-term dyadic adjustment. A sample of 82 couples completed the NEO Five-Factor Inventory and the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. These couples were also videotaped during a 15-minute problem-solving discussion. Approximately 2.5 years later, these couples completed again the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. Results show that personality of both men and women moderates the rel...

Microstructure-sensitive Crystal Viscoplasticity for Ni-base Superalloys Targeting Long-term Creep-Fatigue Interaction Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neu, Richard W.

2017-09-30

The aim of this project is to develop a microstructure-sensitive crystal viscoplasticity (CVP) model for single-crystal Ni-base superalloys to model the behavior of the material and components in the hot gas path sections of industrial gas turbines (IGT). Microstructure degradation associated with aging critical to predicting long-term creep-fatigue interactions will be embedded into the model through the γ' precipitate morphology evolution by coupling the coarsening drivers and kinetics into the constitutive equations of the CVP model. Model parameters will be determined using new experimental protocols that involve systematically artificially aging the alloy under different stress conditions to determine the relationship between the size and morphology g' precipitates on the creep and thermomechanical fatigue response.

Microstructure-sensitive Crystal Viscoelasticity for Ni-base Superalloys Targeting Long-term Creep-Fatigue Interaction Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neu, Richard W

2016-09-30

The aim of this project is to develop a microstructure-sensitive crystal viscoplasticity (CVP) model for single-crystal Ni-base superalloys to model the behavior of the material and components in the hot gas path sections of industrial gas turbines (IGT). Microstructure degradation associated with aging critical to predicting long-term creep-fatigue interactions will be embedded into the model through the γ' precipitate morphology evolution by coupling the coarsening drivers and kinetics into the constitutive equations of the CVP model. Model parameters will be determined using new experimental protocols that involve systematically artificially aging the alloy under different stress conditions to determine the relationship between the size and morphology g' precipitates on the creep and thermomechanical fatigue response.

Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

Little is known about the long-term influence of periglacial processes on landscape evolution in cold areas, even though the efficiency of frost cracking on the breakdown of rocks has been documented by observations and experiments. Cold-room laboratory experiments show that a continuous water...... supply and sustained sub- zero temperatures are essential to develop fractures in porous rocks (e.g. Murton, 2006), but the cracking efficiency for harder rock types under natural conditions is less clear. However, based on experimental results for porous rocks, Hales and Roering (2007) proposed a model...... by their model and the elevation of scree deposits in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. This result suggests a link between frost-cracking efficiency and long-term landscape evolution and thus merits further investigations. Anderson et al. (2012) expanded this early model by including the effects of latent heat...

Chronic dietary chlorpyrifos causes long-term spatial memory impairment and thigmotaxic behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Granero, Caridad; Ruiz-Muñoz, Ana M; Nieto-Escámez, Francisco A; Colomina, María T; Aschner, Michael; Sánchez-Santed, Fernando

2016-03-01

Little is known about the long-term effects of chronic exposure to low-level organophosphate (OP) pesticides, and the role of neurotransmitter systems, other than the cholinergic system, in mediating OP neurotoxicity. In this study, rats were administered 5mg/kg/day of chlorpyrifos (CPF) for 6 months commencing at 3-months-of-age. The animals were examined 7 months later (at 16-months-of-age) for spatial learning and memory in the Morris water maze (MWM) and locomotor activity. In addition, we assessed the chronic effects of CPF on glutamatergic and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABAergic) function using pharmacological challenges with dizocilpine (MK801) and diazepam. Impaired performance related to altered search patterns, including thigmotaxis and long-term spatial memory was noted in the MWM in animals exposed to CPF, pointing to dietary CPF-induced behavioral disturbances, such as anxiety. Twenty-four hours after the 31st session of repeated acquisition task, 0.1mg/kg MK801, an N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) antagonist was intraperitoneally (i.p.) injected for 4 consecutive days. Decreased latencies in the MWM in the control group were noted after two sessions with MK801 treatment. Once the MWM assessment was completed, animals were administered 0.1 or 0.2mg/kg of MK801 and 1 or 3mg/kg of diazepam i.p., and tested for locomotor activity. Both groups, the CPF dietary and control, displayed analogous performance in motor activity. In conclusion, our data point to a connection between the long-term spatial memory, thigmotaxic response and CPF long after the exposure ended. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Cognitive and Behavioral Outcomes following Resolution of Sleep Disordered Breathing in Preschool Children.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah N Biggs

Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the long term effects of resolution of SDB in preschool children, either following treatment or spontaneous recovery, on cognition and behavior. Children diagnosed with SDB at 3-5y (N = 35 and non-snoring controls (N = 25, underwent repeat polysomnography (PSG and cognitive and behavioral assessment 3 years following a baseline study. At follow-up, children with SDB were grouped into Resolved and Unresolved. Resolution was defined as: obstructive apnea hypopnea index (OAHI ≤1 event/h; no snoring detected on PSG; and no parental report of habitual snoring. 57% (20/35 of children with SDB received treatment, with SDB resolving in 60% (12/20. 43% (15/35 were untreated, of whom 40% (6/15 had spontaneous resolution of SDB. Cognitive reduced between baseline and follow-up, however this was not related to persistent disease, with no difference in cognitive outcomes between Resolved, Unresolved or Control groups. Behavioral functioning remained significantly worse in children originally diagnosed with SDB compared to control children, regardless of resolution. Change in OAHI did not predict cognitive or behavioral outcomes, however a reduction in nocturnal arousals, irrespective of full resolution, was associated with improvement in attention and aggressive behavior. These results suggest that resolution of SDB in preschool children has little effect on cognitive or behavioral outcomes over the long term. The association between sleep fragmentation and behavior appears independent of SDB, however may be moderated by concomitant SDB. This challenges the assumption that treatment of SDB will ameliorate associated cognitive and behavioural deficits and supports the possibility of a SDB phenotype.

Modeling flood events for long-term stability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

1985-01-01

The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

Studies of periglacial processes usually focus on small-scale, isolated phenomena, leaving less explored questions of how such processes shape vast areas of Earth’s surface. Here we use numerical surface process modelling to better understand how periglacial processes drive large-scale, long-term...

Using Psychodynamic, Cognitive Behavioral, and Control Mastery Prototypes to Predict Change: A New Look at an Old Paradigm for Long-Term Single-Case Research

Science.gov (United States)

Pole, Nnamdi; Ablon, J. Stuart; O'Connor, Lynn E.

2008-01-01

This article illustrates a method of testing models of change in individual long-term psychotherapy cases. A depressed client was treated with 208 sessions of control mastery therapy (CMT), an unmanualized approach that integrates elements of psychodynamic therapy (PDT) and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Panels of experts developed prototypes…

Long-Term Retardation of Uranium in the KURT Environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baik, Min Hoon; Shin, Joo Do; Park, Tae Jin

2016-01-01

One of possibilities resolving this issue is to study the migration and retardation processes of radionuclides in the subsurface environments by using naturally occurring radionuclides as analogues of radioactive waste. To date, however, the long-term behavior of radionuclides in a granitic groundwater system is not yet fully understood. The ubiquitous presence of uranium (U) in rocks makes it an ideal natural analogue for studying the behaviors of radionuclides in a deep geological repository for the final disposal of HLW. In this study, long-term retardation behavior of natural uranium was investigated using granite rock samples taken from the KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel), located in Daejeon city. The distribution of uranium and its binding mechanism in granite samples were investigated using the sequential chemical extraction (SCE) technique combined with X-ray diffraction (XRD) and ICP-MS methods. In this study, the long-term retardation of uranium in the KURT environment was investigated using SCE and EPMA techniques combined with ICP-MS and XRD. Results showed that long-term interaction of rock with groundwater can change U species and mineralize dissolved U, which can consequently contribute to the retardation of U in the fractured granitic rock environment. This study will help us to understand the long-term behavior of radionuclides migrating through the fractured granite rock and then enhance the reliability of the safety assessment for a HLW repository

A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blower Sally

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

A new mathematical programming model for long-term production scheduling considering geological uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Gholamnejad, J.; Moosavi, E.

2012-01-01

Determination of the optimum production schedules over the life of a mine is a critical mechanism in open pit mine planning procedures. Long-term production scheduling is used to maximize the net present value of the project under technical, financial, and environmental constraints. Mathematical programming models are well suited for optimizing long-term production schedules of open pit mines. There are two approaches to solving long-term production problems: deterministic- and uncertainty- b...

Behavioral models as theoretical frames to analyze the business objective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hernán Alonso Bafico

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper examines Pfeffer’s Models of Behavior and connects each of them with attributes of the definition of the firm’s objective, assumed as the maximization of the sustainable, long term valor of the residual claims.Each of the five models of behavior (rational, social, moral, retrospective and cognitive contributes to the decision making and goal setting processes with its particular and complementary elements. From those assuming complete rationality and frictionless markets, to the models emphasizing the role of ethical positions, and the presence of perceptive and cognitive mechanisms. The analysis highlights the main contributions of critical theories and models of behavior, underlining their focus on non-traditional variables, regarded as critical inputs for goal setting processes and designing alternative executive incentive schemes.  The explicit consideration of those variables does not indicate the need for a new definition of corporate objective. The maximization of the long term value of the shareholders’ claims still defines the relevant objective function of the firm, remaining as the main yardstick of corporate performance.Behavioral models are recognized as important tools to help managers direct their attention to long term strategies. In the last part, we comment on the relationship between the objective function and behavioral models, from the practitioners’ perspective.Key words: Firm Objectives, Behavioral Models, Value Maximization, Stakeholder Theory.

The effects of long-term dopaminergic treatment on locomotor behavior in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira de Almeida, Welinton Alessandro; Maculano Esteves, Andrea; Leite de Almeida-Júnior, Canuto; Lee, Kil Sun; Kannebley Frank, Miriam; Oliveira Mariano, Melise; Frussa-Filho, Roberto; Tufik, Sergio; Tulio de Mello, Marco

2014-12-01

Long-term treatments with dopaminergic agents are associated with adverse effects, including augmentation. Augmentation consists of an exacerbation of restless legs syndrome (a sleep-related movement disorder) symptoms during treatment compared to those experienced during the period before therapy was initiated. The objective of this study was to examine locomotor activity in rats after long-term dopaminergic treatment and its relationship with expression of the D2 receptor, in addition to demonstrating possible evidence of augmentation. The rats were divided into control (CTRL) and drug (Pramipexole-PPX) groups that received daily saline vehicle and PPX treatments, respectively, for 71 days. The locomotor behavior of the animals was evaluated weekly in the Open Field test for 71 days. The expression of the dopamine D2 receptor was evaluated by Western Blot analysis. The animals that received the PPX demonstrated a significant reduction in locomotor activity from day 1 to day 57 and a significant increase in immobility time from day 1 to day 64 relative to baseline values, but these values had returned to baseline levels at 71 days. No changes in the expression of the D2 receptor were demonstrated after treatment with a dopaminergic agonist. This study suggests changes in locomotor activity in rats after long-term PPX treatment that include an immediate reduction of locomotion and an increase in immobilization, and after 64 days, these values returned to baseline levels without evidence of augmentation. In addition, it was not possible to demonstrate a relationship between locomotor activity and the expression of D2 receptors under these conditions.

The effects of long-term dopaminergic treatment on locomotor behavior in rats

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira de Almeida, Welinton Alessandro; Maculano Esteves, Andrea; Leite de Almeida-Júnior, Canuto; Lee, Kil Sun; Kannebley Frank, Miriam; Oliveira Mariano, Melise; Frussa-Filho, Roberto; Tufik, Sergio; Tulio de Mello, Marco

2014-01-01

Long-term treatments with dopaminergic agents are associated with adverse effects, including augmentation. Augmentation consists of an exacerbation of restless legs syndrome (a sleep-related movement disorder) symptoms during treatment compared to those experienced during the period before therapy was initiated. The objective of this study was to examine locomotor activity in rats after long-term dopaminergic treatment and its relationship with expression of the D2 receptor, in addition to demonstrating possible evidence of augmentation. The rats were divided into control (CTRL) and drug (Pramipexole—PPX) groups that received daily saline vehicle and PPX treatments, respectively, for 71 days. The locomotor behavior of the animals was evaluated weekly in the Open Field test for 71 days. The expression of the dopamine D2 receptor was evaluated by Western Blot analysis. The animals that received the PPX demonstrated a significant reduction in locomotor activity from day 1 to day 57 and a significant increase in immobility time from day 1 to day 64 relative to baseline values, but these values had returned to baseline levels at 71 days. No changes in the expression of the D2 receptor were demonstrated after treatment with a dopaminergic agonist. This study suggests changes in locomotor activity in rats after long-term PPX treatment that include an immediate reduction of locomotion and an increase in immobilization, and after 64 days, these values returned to baseline levels without evidence of augmentation. In addition, it was not possible to demonstrate a relationship between locomotor activity and the expression of D2 receptors under these conditions. PMID:26483930

The effects of long-term dopaminergic treatment on locomotor behavior in rats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Welinton Alessandro Oliveira de Almeida

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Long-term treatments with dopaminergic agents are associated with adverse effects, including augmentation. Augmentation consists of an exacerbation of restless legs syndrome (a sleep-related movement disorder symptoms during treatment compared to those experienced during the period before therapy was initiated. The objective of this study was to examine locomotor activity in rats after long-term dopaminergic treatment and its relationship with expression of the D2 receptor, in addition to demonstrating possible evidence of augmentation. The rats were divided into control (CTRL and drug (Pramipexole—PPX groups that received daily saline vehicle and PPX treatments, respectively, for 71 days. The locomotor behavior of the animals was evaluated weekly in the Open Field test for 71 days. The expression of the dopamine D2 receptor was evaluated by Western Blot analysis. The animals that received the PPX demonstrated a significant reduction in locomotor activity from day 1 to day 57 and a significant increase in immobility time from day 1 to day 64 relative to baseline values, but these values had returned to baseline levels at 71 days. No changes in the expression of the D2 receptor were demonstrated after treatment with a dopaminergic agonist. This study suggests changes in locomotor activity in rats after long-term PPX treatment that include an immediate reduction of locomotion and an increase in immobilization, and after 64 days, these values returned to baseline levels without evidence of augmentation. In addition, it was not possible to demonstrate a relationship between locomotor activity and the expression of D2 receptors under these conditions.

Lithium prevents long-term neural and behavioral pathology induced by early alcohol exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadrian, B; Subbanna, S; Wilson, D A; Basavarajappa, B S; Saito, M

2012-03-29

Fetal alcohol exposure can cause developmental defects in offspring known as fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD). FASD symptoms range from obvious facial deformities to changes in neuroanatomy and neurophysiology that disrupt normal brain function and behavior. Ethanol exposure at postnatal day 7 in C57BL/6 mice induces neuronal cell death and long-lasting neurobehavioral dysfunction. Previous work has demonstrated that early ethanol exposure impairs spatial memory task performance into adulthood and perturbs local and interregional brain circuit integrity in the olfacto-hippocampal pathway. Here we pursue these findings to examine whether lithium prevents anatomical, neurophysiological, and behavioral pathologies that result from early ethanol exposure. Lithium has neuroprotective properties that have been shown to prevent ethanol-induced apoptosis. Here we show that mice co-treated with lithium on the same day as ethanol exposure exhibit dramatically reduced acute neurodegeneration in the hippocampus and retain hippocampal-dependent spatial memory as adults. Lithium co-treatment also blocked ethanol-induced disruption in synaptic plasticity in slice recordings of hippocampal CA1 in the adult mouse brain. Moreover, long-lasting dysfunctions caused by ethanol in olfacto-hippocampal networks, including sensory-evoked oscillations and resting state coherence, were prevented in mice co-treated with lithium. Together, these results provide behavioral and physiological evidence that lithium is capable of preventing or reducing immediate and long-term deleterious consequences of early ethanol exposure on brain function. Copyright © 2012 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Outcomes of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Adolescent Body Dysmorphic Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Krebs, Georgina; de la Cruz, Lorena Fernández; Monzani, Benedetta; Bowyer, Laura; Anson, Martin; Cadman, Jacinda; Heyman, Isobel; Turner, Cynthia; Veale, David; Mataix-Cols, David

2017-07-01

Emerging evidence suggests that cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is an efficacious treatment for adolescent body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in the short term, but longer-term outcomes remain unknown. The current study aimed to follow up a group of adolescents who had originally participated in a randomized controlled trial of CBT for BDD to determine whether treatment gains were maintained. Twenty-six adolescents (mean age = 16.2, SD = 1.6) with a primary diagnosis of BDD received a course of developmentally tailored CBT and were followed up over 12 months. Participants were assessed at baseline, midtreatment, posttreatment, 2-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up. The primary outcome measure was the clinician-rated Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale Modified for BDD. Secondary outcomes included measures of insight, depression, quality of life, and global functioning. BDD symptoms decreased significantly from pre- to posttreatment and remained stable over the 12-month follow-up. At this time point, 50% of participants were classified as responders and 23% as remitters. Participants remained significantly improved on all secondary outcomes at 12-month follow-up. Neither baseline insight nor baseline depression predicted long-term outcomes. The positive effects of CBT appear to be durable up to 12-month follow-up. However, the majority of patients remained symptomatic and vulnerable to a range of risks at 12-month follow-up, indicating that longer-term monitoring is advisable in this population. Future research should focus on enhancing the efficacy of CBT in order to improve long-term outcomes. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effects of Chronic Vitamin D3 Hormone Administration on Anxiety-Like Behavior in Adult Female Rats after Long-Term Ovariectomy

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Julia Fedotova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The present preclinical study was created to determine the therapeutic effects of vitamin D hormone treatment as an adjunctive therapy alone or in a combination with low dose of 17β-estradiol (17β-E2 on anxiety-like behavior in female rats with long-term absence of estrogen. Accordingly, the aim of the current study was to examine the effects of chronic cholecalciferol administration (1.0, 2.5 or 5.0 mg/kg subcutaneously, SC, once daily, for 14 days on the anxiety-like state after long-term ovariectomy in female rats. Twelve weeks postovariectomy, cholecalciferol was administered to ovariectomized (OVX rats and OVX rats treated with 17β-E2 (0.5 µg/rat SC, once daily, for 14 days. Anxiety-like behavior was assessed in the elevated plus maze (EPM and the light/dark test (LDT, and locomotor and grooming activities were tested in the open field test (OFT. Cholecalciferol at two doses of 1.0 and 2.5 mg/kg alone or in combination with 17β-E2 produced anxiolytic-like effects in OVX rats as evidenced in the EPM and the LDT, as well as increased grooming activity in the OFT. Our results indicate that cholecalciferol, at two doses of 1.0 and 2.5 mg/kg, has a profound anxiolytic-like effects in the experimental rat model of long-term estrogen deficiency.

Long term stability of power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

1994-12-31

Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

2015-03-01

Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

Long-term corrosion behaviors of Hastelloy-N and Hastelloy-B3 in moisture-containing molten FLiNaK salt environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouyang, Fan-Yi; Chang, Chi-Hung; Kai, Ji-Jung

2014-01-01

Highlights: •Corrosion behaviors of Hastelloy-N and -B3 in molten FLiNaK salt at 700 °C. •The alleviated corrosion rate of alloys was observed after long-hour immersion. •Long-term corrosion rate was limited by diffusion from matrix to alloy surface. •Corrosion pattern transferred from intergranular corrosion into general corrosion. •Presence of minor H 2 O did not greatly influence the long-term corrosion behavior. -- Abstract: This study investigated long-term corrosion behaviors of Ni-based Hastelloy-N and Hastelloy-B3 under moisture-containing molten alkali fluoride salt (LiF–NaF–KF: 46.5–11.5–42%) environment at an ambient temperature of 700 °C. The Hastelloy-N and Hastelloy-B3 experienced similar weight losses for tested duration of 100–1000 h, which was caused by aggregate dissolution of Cr and Mo into FLiNaK salts. The corrosion rate of both alloys was high initially, but then reduced during the course of the test. The alleviated corrosion rate was due to the depletion of Cr and Mo near surface of the alloys and thus the long-term corrosion rate was controlled by diffusion of Cr and Mo outward to the alloy surface. The results of microstructural characterization revealed that the corrosion pattern for both alloys tended to be intergranular corrosion at early stage of corrosion test, and then transferred to general corrosion for longer immersion hours

Changes in health risk behaviors of elementary school students in northern Taiwan from 2001 to 2003: results from the child and adolescent behaviors in long-term evolution study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yen Lee-Lan

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous research has indicated that children's behaviors have long-term effects on later life. Hence it is important to monitor the development of health risk behaviors in childhood. This study examined the changes in health risk behaviors in fourth- to sixth-grade students in northern Taiwan from 2001 to 2003. Methods The Child and Adolescent Behaviors in Long-Term Evolution (CABLE study collected data from 1,820 students from 2001 to 2003 (students were 9 or 10 years old in 2001. Exploratory factor analysis was used to determine the aggregation of health risk behaviors. A linear growth curve model was used to determine whether health risk behaviors changed over time. Results Of the 13 behaviors, staying up late and eating snacks late at night were the most prevalent (82.3% of subjects in 2001, 81.8% in 2002, 88.5% in 2003 and second most prevalent (68.7%, 67.4%, 71.6% behaviors, respectively, from 2001 to 2003. The three least prevalent health risk behaviors were chewing betel nut (1.0%, 0.4%, 0.2%, smoking (1.4%, 1.0%, 0.8%, and drinking alcohol (8.5%, 6.0%, 5.2%. The frequencies of swearing and staying up late showed the greatest significant increases with time. On the other hand, suppressing urination and drinking alcohol decreased over time. Using exploratory factor analysis, we aggregated the health risk behaviors into three categories: unhealthy habits, aggressive behaviors, and substance use. Although students did not display high levels of aggressive behavior or experimentation with substances, the development of these behaviors in a small proportion of students should not be ignored. The results of the linear growth curve model indicated that unhealthy habits and aggressive behaviors increased over time. However, substance use slightly decreased over time. Conclusion We found that some health risk behaviors increased with time while others did not. Unhealthy habits and aggressive behaviors increased, whereas

Behavioral tagging is a general mechanism of long-term memory formation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballarini, Fabricio; Moncada, Diego; Martinez, Maria Cecilia; Alen, Nadia; Viola, Haydée

2009-08-25

In daily life, memories are intertwined events. Little is known about the mechanisms involved in their interactions. Using two hippocampus-dependent (spatial object recognition and contextual fear conditioning) and one hippocampus-independent (conditioned taste aversion) learning tasks, we show that in rats subjected to weak training protocols that induce solely short term memory (STM), long term memory (LTM) is promoted and formed only if training sessions took place in contingence with a novel, but not familiar, experience occurring during a critical time window around training. This process requires newly synthesized proteins induced by novelty and reveals a general mechanism of LTM formation that begins with the setting of a "learning tag" established by a weak training. These findings represent the first comprehensive set of evidences indicating the existence of a behavioral tagging process that in analogy to the synaptic tagging and capture process, need the creation of a transient, protein synthesis-independent, and input specific tag.

Long-term dependence in exchange rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Karytinos

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

The Sleeper Effect of Intimate Partner Violence Exposure: Long-Term Consequences on Young Children's Aggressive Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Megan R.

2013-01-01

Background: Children who have been exposed to intimate partner violence (IPV) experience a wide variety of short-term social adjustment and emotional difficulties, including externalizing behavioral problems such as aggression. While children are affected by IPV at all ages, little is known about the long-term consequences of IPV exposure at…

Traumatic brain injury causes long-term behavioral changes related to region-specific increases of cerebral blood flow.

Science.gov (United States)

Pöttker, Bruno; Stöber, Franziska; Hummel, Regina; Angenstein, Frank; Radyushkin, Konstantin; Goldschmidt, Jürgen; Schäfer, Michael K E

2017-12-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of disability and death and survivors often suffer from long-lasting motor impairment, cognitive deficits, anxiety disorders and epilepsy. Few experimental studies have investigated long-term sequelae after TBI and relations between behavioral changes and neural activity patterns remain elusive. We examined these issues in a murine model of TBI combining histology, behavioral analyses and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging of regional cerebral blood flow (CBF) as a proxy for neural activity. Adult C57Bl/6N mice were subjected to unilateral cortical impact injury and investigated at early (15-57 days after lesion, dal) and late (184-225 dal) post-traumatic time points. TBI caused pronounced tissue loss of the parietal cortex and subcortical structures and enduring neurological deficits. Marked perilesional astro- and microgliosis was found at 57 dal and declined at 225 dal. Motor and gait pattern deficits occurred at early time points after TBI and improved over the time. In contrast, impaired performance in the Morris water maze test and decreased anxiety-like behavior persisted together with an increased susceptibility to pentylenetetrazole-induced seizures suggesting alterations in neural activity patterns. Accordingly, SPECT imaging of CBF indicated asymmetric hemispheric baseline neural activity patterns. In the ipsilateral hemisphere, increased baseline neural activity was found in the amygdala. In the contralateral hemisphere, homotopic to the structural brain damage, the hippocampus and distinct cortex regions displayed increased baseline neural activity. Thus, regionally elevated CBF along with behavioral alterations indicate that increased neural activity is critically involved in the long-lasting consequences of TBI.

Development of a dispatch model of the European power system for coupling with a long-term foresight energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despres, Jacques

2015-12-01

Renewable sources of electricity production are strongly increasing in many parts of the world. The production costs are going down quickly, thus accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind electricity generation. In the long-term, these variable sources of electricity could represent a high share of the power system. However, long-term foresight energy models have difficulties describing precisely the integration challenges of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) such as wind or solar. They just do not represent the short-term technical constraints of the power sector. The objective of this paper is to show a new approach of the representation of the challenges of variability in the long-term foresight energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We develop a short-term optimization model for the power sector operation, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment and Dispatch) and we couple it to POLES year after year. The direct coupling, with bi-directional exchanges of information, brings technical precision to the long-term coherence of energy scenarios. (author)

Critical neural networks with short- and long-term plasticity

Science.gov (United States)

Michiels van Kessenich, L.; Luković, M.; de Arcangelis, L.; Herrmann, H. J.

2018-03-01

In recent years self organized critical neuronal models have provided insights regarding the origin of the experimentally observed avalanching behavior of neuronal systems. It has been shown that dynamical synapses, as a form of short-term plasticity, can cause critical neuronal dynamics. Whereas long-term plasticity, such as Hebbian or activity dependent plasticity, have a crucial role in shaping the network structure and endowing neural systems with learning abilities. In this work we provide a model which combines both plasticity mechanisms, acting on two different time scales. The measured avalanche statistics are compatible with experimental results for both the avalanche size and duration distribution with biologically observed percentages of inhibitory neurons. The time series of neuronal activity exhibits temporal bursts leading to 1 /f decay in the power spectrum. The presence of long-term plasticity gives the system the ability to learn binary rules such as xor, providing the foundation of future research on more complicated tasks such as pattern recognition.

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

2015-09-01

It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

The composition effect on the long-term corrosion of high-level waste glass

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hrma, P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington (United States)

1997-07-01

Waste glass can be optimized for long-term corrosion behavior if the key parameters that control the rate of corrosion are identified, measured, and modeled as functions of glass composition. Second-order polynomial models have been used to optimize glass with respect to a set of requirements on glass properties, such as viscosity and outcomes of standard corrosion tests. Extensive databases exist for the 7-day Product Consistency Test and the 28-day Materials Characterization Center tests, which have been used for nuclear waste glasses in the United States. Models based on these tests are reviewed and discussed to demonstrate the compositional effects on the extent of corrosion under specified conditions. However, modeling the rate of corrosion is potentially more useful for predicting long-term behavior than modeling the extent of corrosion measured by standard tests. Based on an experimental study of two glasses, it is shown that the rate of corrosion can be characterized by simple functions with physically meaningful coefficients. (author)

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Long term warranty and after sales service concept, policies and cost models

CERN Document Server

Rahman, Anisur

2015-01-01

This volume presents concepts, policies and cost models for various long-term warranty and maintenance contracts. It offers several numerical examples for estimating costs to both the manufacturer and consumer. Long-term warranties and maintenance contracts are becoming increasingly popular, as these types of aftersales services provide assurance to consumers that they can enjoy long, reliable service, and protect them from defects and the potentially high costs of repairs. Studying long-term warranty and service contracts is important to manufacturers and consumers alike, as offering long-term warranty and maintenance contracts produce additional costs for manufacturers / service providers over the product’s service life. These costs must be factored into the price, or the manufacturer / dealer will incur losses instead of making a profit. On the other hand, the buyer / consumer needs to weigh the cost of maintaining it over its service life and to decide whether or not these policies are worth purchasing....

Observation of long term potentiation in papain-based memory devices

KAUST Repository

Bag, A.; Hota, Mrinal Kanti; Mallik, Sandipan B.; Maì ti, Chinmay Kumar

2014-01-01

Biological synaptic behavior in terms of long term potentiation has been observed in papain-based (plant protein) memory devices (memristors) for the first time. Improvement in long term potentiation depends on pulse amplitude and width (duration). Continuous/repetitive dc voltage sweep leads to an increase in memristor conductivity leading to a long term memory in the 'learning' processes.

Observation of long term potentiation in papain-based memory devices

KAUST Repository

Bag, A.

2014-06-01

Biological synaptic behavior in terms of long term potentiation has been observed in papain-based (plant protein) memory devices (memristors) for the first time. Improvement in long term potentiation depends on pulse amplitude and width (duration). Continuous/repetitive dc voltage sweep leads to an increase in memristor conductivity leading to a long term memory in the \\'learning\\' processes.

Reforming Long-Term Care Funding in Alberta.

Science.gov (United States)

Crump, R Trafford; Repin, Nadya; Sutherland, Jason M

2015-01-01

Like many provinces across Canada, Alberta is facing growing demand for long-term care. Issues with the mixed funding model used to pay long-term care providers had Alberta Health Services concerned that it was not efficiently meeting the demand for long-term care. Consequently, in 2010, Alberta Health Services introduced the patient/care-based funding (PCBF) model. PCBF is similar to activity-based funding in that it directly ties the complexity and care needs of long-term care residents to the payment received by long-term care providers. This review describes PCBF and discusses some of its strengths and weaknesses. In doing so, this review is intended to inform other provinces faced with similar long-term care challenges and contemplating their own funding reforms.

Behavior Change Strategies for Successful Long-Term Weight Loss: Focusing on Dietary and Physical Activity Adherence, Not Weight Loss

Science.gov (United States)

Hongu, Nobuko; Kataura, Martha P.; Block, Linda M.

2011-01-01

This article helps Extension professionals guide individuals in a successful long-term weight loss program. A program should focus on behavioral changes (improving eating habits and physical activity), not just weight loss. In order to do this, Extension professionals should implement behavior change strategies that motivate individuals to…

Long-term behavior of glass-ceramic zirconolite

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, Ch.

2003-01-01

This work is a part of the investigation of new containment matrices considered for specific conditioning of radionuclides after separation. The aim was to demonstrate the long-term aqueous corrosion resistance of the glass-ceramic zirconolite considered for the conditioning of plutonium and the minor actinides. This material is composed of crystals of zirconolite (CaZrTi 2 O 7 ) dispersed in a residual vitreous phase. It appears that glass-ceramic zirconolite presents a better kinetic behavior than the nuclear glass R 7T7. This is mainly due to a more important rate decrease that occurs more rapidly, that induces a quantity of glass altered at least 10 times as small as for R 7T7 glass. This high slowdown of the alteration rate is attributed to the formation of an alteration film that has been the subject of a specific study. We have demonstrated that the rate decrease was controlled as for the R7T7 glass by the amorphous phase of the alteration film forming a diffusion barrier for reactive species. It seems that the porosity is not the single parameter that explains the protective effect of the gel. The main differences compared with R7T7 glass are that silicon does not control the alteration of the material and that the gel is composed of two distinct phases. We have in particular identified a dense phase enriched in titanium and neodymium that probably influences deeply the kinetics. (author)

Model and economic uncertainties in balancing short-term and long-term objectives in water-flooding optimization.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Siraj, M.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

2015-01-01

Model-based optimization of oil production has a significant scope to increase ultimate recovery or financial life-cycle performance. The Net Present Value (NPV) objective in such an optimization framework, because of its nature, focuses on the long-term gains while the short-term production is not

Long-term changes in neurocognition and behavior following treatment of sleep disordered breathing in school-aged children.

Science.gov (United States)

Biggs, Sarah N; Vlahandonis, Anna; Anderson, Vicki; Bourke, Robert; Nixon, Gillian M; Davey, Margot J; Horne, Rosemary S C

2014-01-01

Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in children is associated with detrimental neurocognitive and behavioral consequences. The long term impact of treatment on these outcomes is unknown. This study examined the long-term effect of treatment of SDB on neurocognition, academic ability, and behavior in a cohort of school-aged children. Four-year longitudinal study. Children originally diagnosed with SDB and healthy non-snoring controls underwent repeat polysomnography and age-standardized neurocognitive and behavioral assessment 4y following initial testing. Melbourne Children's Sleep Centre, Melbourne, Australia. Children 12-16 years of age, originally assessed at 7-12 years, were categorized into Treated (N = 12), Untreated (N = 26), and Control (N = 18) groups. Adenotonsillectomy, Tonsillectomy, Nasal Steroids. Decision to treat was independent of this study. Changes in sleep and respiratory parameters over time were assessed. A decrease in obstructive apnea hypopnea index (OAHI) from Time 1 to Time 2 was seen in 63% and 100% of the Untreated and Treated groups, respectively. The predictive relationship between change in OAHI and standardized neurocognitive, academic, and behavioral scores over time was examined. Improvements in OAHI were predictive of improvements in Performance IQ, but not Verbal IQ or academic measures. Initial group differences in behavioral assessment on the Child Behavior Checklist did not change over time. Children with SDB at baseline continued to exhibit significantly poorer behavior than Controls at follow-up, irrespective of treatment. After four years, improvements in SDB are concomitant with improvements in some areas of neurocognition, but not academic ability or behavior in school-aged children.

A Relationship between Reduced Nucleus Accumbens Shell and Enhanced Lateral Hypothalamic Orexin Neuronal Activation in Long-Term Fructose Bingeing Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Rorabaugh, Jacki M.; Stratford, Jennifer M.; Zahniser, Nancy R.

2014-01-01

Fructose accounts for 10% of daily calories in the American diet. Fructose, but not glucose, given intracerebroventricularly stimulates homeostatic feeding mechanisms within the hypothalamus; however, little is known about how fructose affects hedonic feeding centers. Repeated ingestion of sucrose, a disaccharide of fructose and glucose, increases neuronal activity in hedonic centers, the nucleus accumbens (NAc) shell and core, but not the hypothalamus. Rats given glucose in the intermittent access model (IAM) display signatures of hedonic feeding including bingeing and altered DA receptor (R) numbers within the NAc. Here we examined whether substituting fructose for glucose in this IAM produces bingeing behavior, alters DA Rs and activates hedonic and homeostatic feeding centers. Following long-term (21-day) exposure to the IAM, rats given 8–12% fructose solutions displayed fructose bingeing but unaltered DA D1R or D2R number. Fructose bingeing rats, as compared to chow bingeing controls, exhibited reduced NAc shell neuron activation, as determined by c-Fos-immunoreactivity (Fos-IR). This activation was negatively correlated with orexin (Orx) neuron activation in the lateral hypothalamus/perifornical area (LH/PeF), a brain region linking homeostatic to hedonic feeding centers. Following short-term (2-day) access to the IAM, rats exhibited bingeing but unchanged Fos-IR, suggesting only long-term fructose bingeing increases Orx release. In long-term fructose bingeing rats, pretreatment with the Ox1R antagonist SB-334867 (30 mg/kg; i.p.) equally reduced fructose bingeing and chow intake, resulting in a 50% reduction in calories. Similarly, in control rats, SB-334867 reduced chow/caloric intake by 60%. Thus, in the IAM, Ox1Rs appear to regulate feeding based on caloric content rather than palatability. Overall, our results, in combination with the literature, suggest individual monosaccharides activate distinct neuronal circuits to promote feeding behavior

A relationship between reduced nucleus accumbens shell and enhanced lateral hypothalamic orexin neuronal activation in long-term fructose bingeing behavior.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacki M Rorabaugh

Full Text Available Fructose accounts for 10% of daily calories in the American diet. Fructose, but not glucose, given intracerebroventricularly stimulates homeostatic feeding mechanisms within the hypothalamus; however, little is known about how fructose affects hedonic feeding centers. Repeated ingestion of sucrose, a disaccharide of fructose and glucose, increases neuronal activity in hedonic centers, the nucleus accumbens (NAc shell and core, but not the hypothalamus. Rats given glucose in the intermittent access model (IAM display signatures of hedonic feeding including bingeing and altered DA receptor (R numbers within the NAc. Here we examined whether substituting fructose for glucose in this IAM produces bingeing behavior, alters DA Rs and activates hedonic and homeostatic feeding centers. Following long-term (21-day exposure to the IAM, rats given 8-12% fructose solutions displayed fructose bingeing but unaltered DA D1R or D2R number. Fructose bingeing rats, as compared to chow bingeing controls, exhibited reduced NAc shell neuron activation, as determined by c-Fos-immunoreactivity (Fos-IR. This activation was negatively correlated with orexin (Orx neuron activation in the lateral hypothalamus/perifornical area (LH/PeF, a brain region linking homeostatic to hedonic feeding centers. Following short-term (2-day access to the IAM, rats exhibited bingeing but unchanged Fos-IR, suggesting only long-term fructose bingeing increases Orx release. In long-term fructose bingeing rats, pretreatment with the Ox1R antagonist SB-334867 (30 mg/kg; i.p. equally reduced fructose bingeing and chow intake, resulting in a 50% reduction in calories. Similarly, in control rats, SB-334867 reduced chow/caloric intake by 60%. Thus, in the IAM, Ox1Rs appear to regulate feeding based on caloric content rather than palatability. Overall, our results, in combination with the literature, suggest individual monosaccharides activate distinct neuronal circuits to promote feeding behavior

Evidence of long memory behavior in U.S. renewable energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pestana Barros, Carlos; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; Payne, James E.

2012-01-01

This study examines the degrees of time persistence in U.S. total renewable energy consumption using innovative fractional integration and autoregressive models with monthly data from 1981:1 to 2010:10. The results indicate that renewable energy consumption is better explained in terms of a long memory model that incorporates persistence components and seasonality. The degree of integration is above 0.5 but significantly below 1.0, suggesting nonstationarity with mean reverting behavior. The presence of long memory behavior (persistence) in renewable energy consumption suggests that random shocks may very well move renewable energy consumption from pre-determined target levels for a period of time.

Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy V.P. Bliss

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

Phenomenological study on crystalline rock for evaluating of long-term behavior (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okubo, Seisuke; Seno, Yasuhiro; Hirano, Toru; Matsui, Hiroya; Nakama, Shigeo

2008-08-01

The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is conducting the Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU) Project in order to develop comprehensive geological investigation and engineering techniques for deep underground applications (e.g. repository of HLW). The purpose of this study is to contribute to the evaluation of the mechanical stability of a research drift and to plan the future studies. Rock shows time-dependent behavior such as creep/relaxation. For the shaft and gallery of the geological disposal for the radioactive waste, the mechanical stability over a period of thousands of years is demanded not only during construction and operation but also after back-filling. So, to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock is very important for evaluating the long-term mechanical stability. This study is aiming to find out the mechanism of time-dependent behavior of rock such as creep by the precision test, observation and measurement, to develop the evaluating method of long-term behavior of rock mass, and to get the information for planning the study of the Phase III (Operation Phase) at the Mizunami URL. In the previous work conducted before this fiscal year 2007, we improved the testing technique and started test of Toki granite sampled from target site. Furthermore we studied the in-situ measurement method for evaluating the scatter of rock properties. This report describes the results of the works in the fiscal year 2007. In Chapter 1, we described the overview and background of this study. In Chapter 2, the result of continuing creep test of Tage tuff which was started from the fiscal year 1997 was described. Although there was some annual variability, the precious data were obtained. In Chapter 3, the control program for the generalized relaxation test was developed. The generalized relaxation test of Toki granite was conducted in order to get basically data. In Chapter 4, the extended constitutive equation of variable compliance was analytically

Simulation of long-term behavior in HLW near-field by centrifugal model test. Part 4. Model test of coupled THM processes in isotropic stress conditions using heatable overpack

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishimoto, Soshi; Okada, Tetsuji; Sawada, Masataka

2014-01-01

We demonstrated the equivalent long-term behavior in the near-field of a geological repository for high level radioactive waste disposal, using the centrifugal near-field model test under the coupled thermo-hydraulic-mechanical condition. The model consisted of a sedimentary bedrock, buffer, and heating type model overpack, and was enclosed within a pressure vessel. Tests were conducted with a centrifugal force field of 30 G under isotropic stress-constrain conditions with confining pressures and injection of pore water. The temperature condition of the overpack was constantly 95°C. As the result, the values showed similar behaviors to that of the normal temperature tests partially. However, the different behaviors were measured such as the displacement of overpack change from the settlement to the heave, the extreme drop in the soil pressure of the buffer and the strain of side wall of bedrock change from the tension to the compression after injecting pore water of hundreds hours. In addition, the flow rate of the injection pore water suddenly changed after hundreds of hours. Furthermore, the density of the buffer was lower than that of the normal temperature tests by X-ray CT imaging in the post-tests. We infer that the high temperature overpack influenced the stiffness and the pore water distribution of the buffer, and the density and the soil pressure of the buffer decreased. As a result of the change of stiffness in the disposal hole (buffer), the tendency to the strain of the surrounding bedrock and the displacement of the overpack changed. (author)

Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ugur Ahmet

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

Long-term effect of September 11 on the political behavior of victims’ families and neighbors

Science.gov (United States)

Hersh, Eitan D.

2013-01-01

This article investigates the long-term effect of September 11, 2001 on the political behaviors of victims’ families and neighbors. Relative to comparable individuals, family members and residential neighbors of victims have become—and have stayed—significantly more active in politics in the last 12 years, and they have become more Republican on account of the terrorist attacks. The method used to demonstrate these findings leverages the random nature of the terrorist attack to estimate a causal effect and exploits new techniques to link multiple, individual-level, governmental databases to measure behavioral change without relying on surveys or aggregate analysis. PMID:24324145

Long-term effect of September 11 on the political behavior of victims' families and neighbors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hersh, Eitan D

2013-12-24

This article investigates the long-term effect of September 11, 2001 on the political behaviors of victims' families and neighbors. Relative to comparable individuals, family members and residential neighbors of victims have become--and have stayed--significantly more active in politics in the last 12 years, and they have become more Republican on account of the terrorist attacks. The method used to demonstrate these findings leverages the random nature of the terrorist attack to estimate a causal effect and exploits new techniques to link multiple, individual-level, governmental databases to measure behavioral change without relying on surveys or aggregate analysis.

Long-term exposure to intranasal oxytocin in a mouse autism model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bales, K L; Solomon, M; Jacob, S; Crawley, J N; Silverman, J L; Larke, R H; Sahagun, E; Puhger, K R; Pride, M C; Mendoza, S P

2014-11-11

Oxytocin (OT) is a neuropeptide involved in mammalian social behavior. It is currently in clinical trials for the treatment of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Previous studies in healthy rodents (prairie voles and C57BL/6J mice) have shown that there may be detrimental effects of long-term intranasal administration, raising the questions about safety and efficacy. To investigate the effects of OT on the aspects of ASD phenotype, we conducted the first study of chronic intranasal OT in a well-validated mouse model of autism, the BTBR T+ Itpr3tf/J inbred strain (BTBR), which displays low sociability and high repetitive behaviors. BTBR and C57BL/6J (B6) mice (N=94) were administered 0.8  IU/kg of OT intranasally, daily for 30 days, starting on day 21. We ran a well-characterized set of behavioral tasks relevant to diagnostic and associated symptoms of autism, including juvenile reciprocal social interactions, three-chambered social approach, open-field exploratory activity, repetitive self-grooming and fear-conditioned learning and memory, some during and some post treatment. Intranasal OT did not improve autism-relevant behaviors in BTBR, except for female sniffing in the three-chambered social interaction test. Male saline-treated BTBR mice showed increased interest in a novel mouse, both in chamber time and sniffing time, whereas OT-treated male BTBR mice showed a preference for the novel mouse in sniffing time only. No deleterious effects of OT were detected in either B6 or BTBR mice, except possibly for the lack of a preference for the novel mouse's chamber in OT-treated male BTBR mice. These results highlight the complexity inherent in understanding the effects of OT on behavior. Future investigations of chronic intranasal OT should include a wider dose range and early developmental time points in both healthy rodents and ASD models to affirm the efficacy and safety of OT.

Thermal behavior of neutron shielding material, NS-4-FR, under long term storage conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, N.; O-iwa, A.; Asano, R.; Horita, R.; Kusunoki, K.

2004-01-01

NS-4-FR, Epoxy-Resin, has been widely used as a neutron shielding material for casks. It is recognized that the resin will degrade during storage and loose weight under high temperature conditions. Most of the examinations for the resin degrading behavior were conducted with rather small bare resin specimens. However, the actual quantity of neutron shielding is quite large and is covered by the cask body. To confirm the degrading behavior of the resin under the long-term storage conditions, we performed the test on the specimen with the same cross-section as the actual design, Hitz B69. The resin test vessels were made out of stainless steel and equipped with flange

Remaining uncertainties in predicting long-term performance of nuclear waste glass from experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grambow, B.

1994-01-01

The current knowledge on the glass dissolution mechanism and the representation of glass dissolution concepts within overall repository performance assessment models are briefly summarized and uncertainties related to mechanism, radionuclide chemistry and parameters are discussed. Understanding of the major glass dissolution processes has been significantly increased in recent years. Long-term glass stability is related to the long-term maintenance of silica saturated conditions. The behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass has not been sufficiently and results do no yet allow meaningful predictions. Conserving long-term predictions of glass matrix dissolution as upper limit for radionuclide release can be made with sufficient confidence, however these estimations generally result in a situation where the barrier function of the glass is masked by the efficiency of the geologic barrier. Realistic long-term predictions may show that the borosilicate waste glass contributes to overall repository safety to a much larger extent than indicated by overconservatism. Today realistic predictions remain highly uncertain and much more research work is necessary. In particular, the long-term rate under silica saturated conditions needs to be understood and the behavior of individual radionuclides in the presence of a dissolving glass deserves more systematic investigations

Study on effects of coupled phenomenon on long-term behavior for crystalline rock. FY2015 (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichikawa, Yasuaki; Kimoto, Kazushi; Matsui, Hiroya; Kuwabara, Kazumichi; Ozaki, Yusuke

2016-12-01

It is important to evaluate the stability of a repository for high-level radioactive waste not only during the design, construction and operation phases, but also during the post-closure period, for time frames likely exceeding several millennia or longer. The rock mass around the tunnels could be deformed through time in response to time dependent behavior such as creep and stress relaxation. On the other hand, it was revealed that the chemical reaction of groundwater in a rock had an influence on the long-term behavior. An evaluation of the microcracks to have an influence on rock mechanical and chemical coupled phenomena is the issue the past long-term behavior for rock study. In fiscal year 2015, using a laser Doppler vibrometer that extends a frequency band up to 20 MHz, and measuring the surface wave transmitted through the granite specimens were estimated group velocity. As a result, group velocity until 100 kHz ∼ 500 kHz, revealed that tends to decrease while vibrating. Estimation of the group velocity from the group delay, by using the spatially averaged waveform has improved estimated frequency band and reliability. For this reason, the estimation of the group velocity from the group delay has also been shown to be easier than estimated by the wave number - frequency spectrum. As a result obtained, in the case of the modeling by the viscoelastic theory of the granite and a microcrack nondestructiveness evaluation, it is thought that it is useful information in the future. In order to use the knowledge of this study, there is a need to clarify the correspondence between the microscopic properties of the medium such as a crack and crystal grain and the change of the group velocity. (author)

Long-term effects of a single exposure to stress in adult rats on behavior and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal responsiveness: comparison of two outbred rat strains.

Science.gov (United States)

Belda, Xavier; Márquez, Cristina; Armario, Antonio

2004-10-05

We have previously observed that a single exposure to immobilization (IMO), a severe stressor, caused long-term (days to weeks) desensitization of the response of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis to the homotypic stressor, with no changes in behavioral reactivity to novel environments. In contrast, other laboratories have reported that a single exposure to footshock induced a long-term sensitization of both HPA and behavioral responses to novel environments. To test whether these apparent discrepancies can be explained by the use of different stressors or different strains of rats, we studied in the present work the long-term effects of a single exposure to two different stressors (footshock or IMO) in two different strains of rats (Sprague-Dawley from Iffa-Credo and Wistar rats from Harlan). We found that both strains showed desensitization of the HPA response to the same (homotypic) stressor after a previous exposure to either shock or IMO. The long-term effects were higher after IMO than shock. No major changes in behavior in two novel environments (circular corridor, CC and elevated plus-maze, EPM) were observed after a single exposure to shock or IMO in neither strain, despite the fact that shocked rats showed a conditioned freezing response to the shock boxes. The present results demonstrate that long-term stress-induced desensitization of the HPA axis is a reliable phenomenon that can be observed with different stressors and strains. However, only behavioral changes related to shock-induced conditioned fear were found, which suggests that so far poorly characterized factors are determining the long-term behavioral consequences of a single exposure to stress.

Self-guided Change: The most common form of long-term, maintained health behavior change

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop, F Michler

2018-01-01

Millions of people change risky, health-related behaviors and maintain those changes. However, they often take years to change, and their unhealthy behaviors may harm themselves and others and constitute a significant cost to society. A review—similar in nature to a scoping review—was done of the literature related to long-term health behavior change in six areas: alcohol, cocaine and heroin misuse, gambling, smoking, and overeating. Based on the limited research available, reasons for change and strategies for changing and for maintaining change were also reviewed. Fifty years of research clearly indicate that as people age, in the case of alcohol, heroin and cocaine misuse, smoking, and gambling, 80–90 percent moderate or stop their unhealthy behaviors. The one exception is overeating; only 20 percent maintain their weight loss. Most of these changes, when they occur, appear to be the result of self-guided change. More ways to accelerate self-guided, health-related behavior change need to be developed and disseminated. PMID:29375888

A Substance Called Food: Long-Term Psychodynamic Group Treatment for Compulsive Overeating.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Deborah C; Nickow, Marcia S; Arseneau, Ric; Gisslow, Mary T

2015-07-01

Obesity has proven difficult to treat. Many approaches neglect to address the deep-rooted underlying psychological issues. This paper describes a psychodynamically oriented approach to treating compulsive overeating as an addiction. Common to all addictions is a compulsion to consume a substance or engage in a behavior, a preoccupation with using behavior and rituals, and a lifestyle marked by an inability to manage the behavior and its harmful consequences. The approach represents a shift away from primarily medical models of intervention to integrated models focusing on the psychological underpinnings of obesity. Long-term psychodynamic group psychotherapy is recommended as a primary treatment.

Integrated modeling of long-term vegetation and hydrologic dynamics in Rocky Mountain watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Robert Steven Ahl

2007-01-01

Changes in forest structure resulting from natural disturbances, or managed treatments, can have negative and long lasting impacts on water resources. To facilitate integrated management of forest and water resources, a System for Long-Term Integrated Management Modeling (SLIMM) was developed. By combining two spatially explicit, continuous time models, vegetation...

Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer

2006-01-01

The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC

Introduction: Long term prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beranger, G.

2003-01-01

Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

Time-Dependent Global Sensitivity Analysis for Long-Term Degeneracy Model Using Polynomial Chaos

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianbin Guo

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Global sensitivity is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the output variability of static models in general. However, very few approaches can be applied for the sensitivity analysis of long-term degeneracy models, as far as time-dependent reliability is concerned. The reason is that the static sensitivity may not reflect the completed sensitivity during the entire life circle. This paper presents time-dependent global sensitivity analysis for long-term degeneracy models based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE. Sobol’ indices are employed as the time-dependent global sensitivity since they provide accurate information on the selected uncertain inputs. In order to compute Sobol’ indices more efficiently, this paper proposes a moving least squares (MLS method to obtain the time-dependent PCE coefficients with acceptable simulation effort. Then Sobol’ indices can be calculated analytically as a postprocessing of the time-dependent PCE coefficients with almost no additional cost. A test case is used to show how to conduct the proposed method, then this approach is applied to an engineering case, and the time-dependent global sensitivity is obtained for the long-term degeneracy mechanism model.

A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates.

OpenAIRE

Campbell, John Y; Shiller, Robert J

1984-01-01

Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by a distributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate "overreacts" to the short rate. This paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia, or deviations from the expectations theory. This enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated. It is show...

An Exemplar-Familiarity Model Predicts Short-Term and Long-Term Probe Recognition across Diverse Forms of Memory Search

Science.gov (United States)

Nosofsky, Robert M.; Cox, Gregory E.; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M.

2014-01-01

Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across…

Long-Term Flexural Behaviors of GFRP Reinforced Concrete Beams Exposed to Accelerated Aging Exposure Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeonho Park

2014-06-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of accelerated aging conditions on the long-term flexural behavior and ductility of reinforced concrete (RC members with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP bars (RC-GFRP specimen and steel bars (RC-steel specimen. A total of thirty six specimens were designed with different amounts of reinforcement with three types of reinforcing bars (i.e., helically wrapped GFRP, sand-coated surface GFRP and steel. Eighteen specimens were subjected to sustained loads and accelerated aging conditions (i.e., 47 °C and 80% relative humidity in a chamber. The flexural behavior of specimens under 300-day exposure was compared to that of the companion specimens without experiencing accelerated aging conditions. Results indicate that the accelerated aging conditions reduced flexural capacity in not only RC-steel, but also RC-GFRP specimens, with different rates of reduction. Different types of GFRP reinforcement exhibited different rates of degradation of the flexural capacity when embedded in concrete under the same exposure conditions. Several existing models were compared with experimental results for predicting the deflection and deformability index for specimens. Bischoff and Gross’s model exhibited an excellent prediction of the time-dependent deflections. Except for the deformability index proposed by Jaeger, there was no general trend related to the aging duration. This study recommends the need for further investigation on the prediction of the deformability index.

Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Lague, D.; Davy, P.

2008-12-01

Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width

Multimethod Behavioral Treatment of Long-Term Selective Mutism.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, T. Steuart; Kramer, Jack J.

1992-01-01

Conducted single-subject, experimental research to examine efficacy of treating severe, long-term selective mutism in nine-year-old male using shaping, multiple reinforcers, natural consequences, stimulus fading, and mild aversives. Implemented different treatment regimens in home and school environments. Home intervention resulted in increase in…

Long-term leaching behavior of simulated Savannah River Plant waste glass: Part 1, MCC-1 leachability results, four-year leaching data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wicks, G.G.; Stone, J.A.; Chandler, G.T.; Williams, S.

1986-08-01

Long-term leaching data were obtained on SRP 131/TDS waste glass using MCC-1 or slightly modified MCC-1 standard leaching tests. Experiments were conducted out to four years at 40 0 C and 3-1/2 years at 90 0 C. These experiments have produced the longest standardized leaching data currently available in the waste management community. Long-term leaching data provide important input to modeling of waste glass behavior and ultimate prediction of waste glass performance. In this study, the leaching behavior of SRP waste glass was found to be excellent; leachates based on a variety of elements were not only very low, but also improved with increasing time. In addition to these data, results are also reported from another independent Savannah River study. Leaching behavior at 40 0 C and 90 0 C was assessed not only for a similar SRP 131 waste glass composition, but also for extreme waste glass compositions involving high-iron and high-aluminum waste. In addition, these experiments were performed using not only a standard deionized water leachant, but also simplified brine and silicate groundwater simulations. These two large data bases will be summarized and correlated along with some of the more interesting results recently reported in another study, a two-year leaching program performed on a similar SRP waste glass composition at Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories

Barrier analogs: Long-term performance issues, preliminary studies, and recommendations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waugh, W.J. [Rust Geotech, Inc., Grand Junction, CO (United States). Environmental Sciences Lab.; Chatters, J.C.; Last, G.V.; Bjornstad, B.N.; Link, S.O. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Hunter, C.R. [Cascade Earth Sciences, La Grande, OR (United States)

1994-02-01

The US Department of Energy`s Hanford Protective Barrier Development Program is funding studies of natural analogs of the long-term performance of waste site covers. Natural-analog studies examine past environments as evidence for projecting the future performance of engineered structures. The information generated by analog studies is needed to (1) evaluate the designs and results of short term experiments and demonstrations, (2) formulate performance-modeling problems that bound expected changes in waste site environments, and (3) understand emergent system attributes that cannot be evaluated with short-term experiments or computer models. Waste site covers will be part of dynamic environmental systems with attributes that transcend the traits of engineered components. This report discusses results of the previously unreported preliminary studies conducted in 1983 and 1984. These results indicate that analogs could play an important role in predicting the long-term behavior of engineered waste covers. Layered exposures of glacial-flood-deposited gravels mantled with silt or sand that resemble contemporary barrier designs were examined. Bergmounds, another anomaly left by cataclysmic glacial floods, were also examined as analogs of surface gravel.

A conceptual framework for a long-term economic model for the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagy, Balázs; Setyawan, Juliana; Coghill, David; Soroncz-Szabó, Tamás; Kaló, Zoltán; Doshi, Jalpa A

2017-06-01

Models incorporating long-term outcomes (LTOs) are not available to assess the health economic impact of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Develop a conceptual modelling framework capable of assessing long-term economic impact of ADHD therapies. Literature was reviewed; a conceptual structure for the long-term model was outlined with attention to disease characteristics and potential impact of treatment strategies. The proposed model has four layers: i) multi-state short-term framework to differentiate between ADHD treatments; ii) multiple states being merged into three core health states associated with LTOs; iii) series of sub-models in which particular LTOs are depicted; iv) outcomes collected to be either used directly for economic analyses or translated into other relevant measures. This conceptual model provides a framework to assess relationships between short- and long-term outcomes of the disease and its treatment, and to estimate the economic impact of ADHD treatments throughout the course of the disease.

Long-term behavior of domestic waste slags

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colombel, Pascale

1996-01-01

Vitrification is one of the envisaged solutions to face French legal requirements related to the solidification/stabilisation of some wastes. It results in glassy or crystallized aluminosilicate and calcium-rich materials which trap heavy metals notably contained by the ashes of purification residues from incineration smokes of domestic wastes. This research thesis addresses the study of the long term behaviour of such materials in order to check that toxic compounds they contain will not be released in the environment so that these materials can become common and even valorised. Four vitrified products have been studied. It appeared that their alteration mechanisms in aqueous phase are close to that of already known natural and artificial silicate materials. Alteration rates depend on material composition and structure on the one hand, and on solution temperature, pH, composition and renewal rate on the other hand. The influence of surrounding materials is also taken into account within the frame of a scenario of use in road construction. Modelling studies are also performed and it appears that the containment of toxic elements contained in vitrified products obtained from domestic waste is sustainable [fr

Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-01-01

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

2016-07-15

In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

Long-term relationships of major macro-variables in a resource-related economic model of Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvie, Charles; Hoa, T. van

1993-01-01

The paper reports the results of a simple cointegration analysis applied to bivariate causality models using data on resource output, oil prices, terms of trade, current account and output growth to investigate the long-term relationships among these major macroeconomic aggregates in a resource-related economic model of Australia. For the period 1960-1990, the empirical evidence indicates that these five macro-variables, as formulated in our model, are not random walks. In addition, resource production and oil prices are significantly cointegrated, and they are also significantly cointegrated with the current account, terms of trade and economic growth. These findings provide support to the long-term adjustments foundation of our resource-related model. (author)

Short-term and long-term effects of violent media on aggression in children and adults

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bushman, B.J.; Huesmann, L.R.

2006-01-01

Objectives: To test whether the results of the accumulated studies on media violence and aggressive behavior are consistent with the theories that have evolved to explain the effects. We tested for the existence of both short-term and long-term effects for aggressive behavior. We also tested the

Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grohnheit, P.E.

1999-01-01

A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

Radionuclide Incorporation and Long Term Performance of Apatite Waste Forms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jianwei [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Lian, Jie [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States); Gao, Fei [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

2016-01-04

This project aims to combines state-of-the-art experimental and characterization techniques with atomistic simulations based on density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. With an initial focus on long-lived I-129 and other radionuclides such as Cs, Sr in apatite structure, specific research objectives include the atomic scale understanding of: (1) incorporation behavior of the radionuclides and their effects on the crystal chemistry and phase stability; (2) stability and microstructure evolution of designed waste forms under coupled temperature and radiation environments; (3) incorporation and migration energetics of radionuclides and release behaviors as probed by DFT and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations; and (4) chemical durability as measured in dissolution experiments for long term performance evaluation and model validation.

LONG-TERM EVOLUTION OF PROTOSTELLAR AND PROTOPLANETARY DISKS. I. OUTBURSTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Zhaohuan; Hartmann, Lee; Gammie, Charles F.; Book, Laura G.; Simon, Jacob B.; Engelhard, Eric

2010-01-01

As an initial investigation into the long-term evolution of protostellar disks, we explore the conditions required to explain the large outbursts of disk accretion seen in some young stellar objects. We use one-dimensional time-dependent disk models with a phenomenological treatment of the magnetorotational instability (MRI) and gravitational torques to follow disk evolution over long timescales. Comparison with our previous two-dimensional disk model calculations indicates that the neglect of radial effects and two-dimensional disk structure in the one-dimensional case makes only modest differences in the results; this allows us to use the simpler models to explore parameter space efficiently. We find that the mass infall rates typically estimated for low-mass protostars generally result in AU-scale disk accretion outbursts, as predicted by our previous analysis. We also confirm quasi-steady accretion behavior for high mass infall rates if the values of α-parameter for the MRI are small, while at this high accretion rate convection from the thermal instability may lead to some variations. We further constrain the combinations of the α-parameter and the MRI critical temperature, which can reproduce observed outburst behavior. Our results suggest that dust sublimation may be connected with full activation of the MRI. This is consistent with the idea that small dust captures ions and electrons to suppress the MRI. In a companion paper, we will explore both long-term outburst and disk evolution with this model, allowing for infall from protostellar envelopes with differing angular momenta.

Long-term cognitive and behavioral consequences of neonatal encephalopathy following perinatal asphyxia: a review

Science.gov (United States)

Swaab, Hanna; de Vries, Linda S.; Jongmans, Marian J.

2007-01-01

Neonatal encephalopathy (NE) following perinatal asphyxia (PA) is considered an important cause of later neurodevelopmental impairment in infants born at term. This review discusses long-term consequences for general cognitive functioning, educational achievement, neuropsychological functioning and behavior. In all areas reviewed, the outcome of children with mild NE is consistently positive and the outcome of children with severe NE consistently negative. However, children with moderate NE form a more heterogeneous group with respect to outcome. On average, intelligence scores are below those of children with mild NE and age-matched peers, but within the normal range. With respect to educational achievement, difficulties have been found in the domains reading, spelling and arithmetic/mathematics. So far, studies of neuropsychological functioning have yielded ambiguous results in children with moderate NE. A few studies suggest elevated rates of hyperactivity in children with moderate NE and autism in children with moderate and severe NE. Conclusion: Behavioral monitoring is required for all children with NE. In addition, systematic, detailed neuropsychological examination is needed especially for children with moderate NE. PMID:17426984

Long-term modeling on HPV vaccination: do we really need any more?

Science.gov (United States)

Garattini, Livio; Curto, Alessandro; van de Vooren, Katelijne

2015-04-01

The human papillomavirus (HPV) is closely related to cervical cancer. In 2007, the EMA approved two vaccines, a bivalent and a quadrivalent one, launched at three-dose schedules and very high prices worldwide. We describe what happened in the EU and what might change in the near future from an economic perspective. HPV vaccination is now established in most EU countries. The main target group of the programs is girls aged 10-14 years. Many western countries used competitive tendering to purchase the two vaccines, achieving considerable savings. The extension to males has been a hotly debated issue. The sex limitation implies that this vaccination cannot by definition achieve a 'herd immunity' effect. EMA recently approved a two-dose schedule for both vaccines that should lead to savings, although it is hard to predict how the forthcoming nonavalent vaccine will affect the market situation. Several economic evaluations based on long-term models have been published on the HPV vaccination in the recent years, using official list prices as a baseline. Most of these models can be considered mere exercises in long-term forecasting. Recently, further long-term models have been published with two- and three-dose schedules as alternatives, and the nonavalent vaccine. We wonder what added value they give for public policy purposes.

Mathematical models of human paralyzed muscle after long-term training.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, L A Frey; Shields, R K

2007-01-01

Spinal cord injury (SCI) results in major musculoskeletal adaptations, including muscle atrophy, faster contractile properties, increased fatigability, and bone loss. The use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) provides a method to prevent paralyzed muscle adaptations in order to sustain force-generating capacity. Mathematical muscle models may be able to predict optimal activation strategies during FES, however muscle properties further adapt with long-term training. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of three muscle models, one linear and two nonlinear, for predicting paralyzed soleus muscle force after exposure to long-term FES training. Further, we contrasted the findings between the trained and untrained limbs. The three models' parameters were best fit to a single force train in the trained soleus muscle (N=4). Nine additional force trains (test trains) were predicted for each subject using the developed models. Model errors between predicted and experimental force trains were determined, including specific muscle force properties. The mean overall error was greatest for the linear model (15.8%) and least for the nonlinear Hill Huxley type model (7.8%). No significant error differences were observed between the trained versus untrained limbs, although model parameter values were significantly altered with training. This study confirmed that nonlinear models most accurately predict both trained and untrained paralyzed muscle force properties. Moreover, the optimized model parameter values were responsive to the relative physiological state of the paralyzed muscle (trained versus untrained). These findings are relevant for the design and control of neuro-prosthetic devices for those with SCI.

Long term treadmill exercise performed to chronic social isolated rats regulate anxiety behavior without improving learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Cevik, Ozge Selin; Sahin, Leyla; Tamer, Lulufer

2018-05-01

The type and duration of exposure to stress is an important influence on emotional and cognitive functions. Learning is the adaptive response of the central nervous system that occurs in hippocampus which affects from environmental factors like exercise. In this study, we investigated effects of long term treadmill exercise on learning and behavior on chronic social isolated rat. Male Wistar rats (n = 32) randomly assigned into four groups: control, exercised, social isolation, social isolation + exercise during postnatal days (PNDs) 21-34. Social isolation protocol was applied during 14 days by placing rat in a cage one by one. Rats were exercised during 5 days, days were chosen randomly for overall 4 weeks (20, 30, 50, 60 min respectively). Finally, learning performance was evaluated by Morris water maze (MWM). Anxiety behavior was evaluated by Open field and elevated plus maze test. At the end of learning and behavior tests, the rats were decapitated to collect blood samples via intracardiac puncture and corticosterone analysis was performed with ELISA method. Animal weights and water consumption did not change significantly but food intake differed among groups. Corticosterone level did not change between groups. The frequency of entering to the target quadrant increased in exercised rat significantly. However, there was no difference in learning and memory in rats. Treadmill exercise reduced anxiety behavior significantly. Taken together these findings may point out that, long term treadmill exercise did not change learning and memory but reduced anxiety level of rat without changing corticosterone level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term creep modeling of wood using time temperature superposition principle

OpenAIRE

Gamalath, Sandhya Samarasinghe

1991-01-01

Long-term creep and recovery models (master curves) were developed from short-term data using the time temperature superposition principle (TTSP) for kiln-dried southern pine loaded in compression parallel-to-grain and exposed to constant environmental conditions (~70°F, ~9%EMC). Short-term accelerated creep (17 hour) and recovery (35 hour) data were collected for each specimen at a range of temperature (70°F-150°F) and constant moisture condition of 9%. The compressive stra...

Characterization, Long-Term Behavior Evaluation and Thermomechanical Properties of Untreated and Treated Flax Fiber-Reinforced Composites

Science.gov (United States)

Amiri, Ali

In recent years there has been a resurgence of interest in the usage of natural fiber reinforced composites in more advanced structural applications. Consequently, the need for improving their mechanical properties as well as service life and long-term behavior modeling and predictions has arisen. In a step towards further development of these materials, in this study, two newly developed biobased resins, derived from soybean oil, methacrylated epoxidized sucrose soyate and double methacrylated epoxidized sucrose soyate are combined with untreated and alkaline treated flax fiber to produce novel biocomposites. Vinyl ester reinforced with flax fiber is used as control in addition to comparing properties of biobased composites against commercial pultruded composites. Effects of alkaline treatment of flax fiber as well as addition of 1% acrylic resin to vinyl ester and the two mentioned biobased resins on mechanical properties are studied. Properties are evaluated in short-term and also, after being exposed to accelerated weathering (i.e. UV and moisture). Moreover, long-term creep of these novel biobased composites and effect of fiber and matrix treatment on viscoelastic behavior is investigated using Time-temperature superposition (TTS) principle. Based on the results of this study, the TTS provides an accelerated method for evaluation of mechanical properties of biobased composites, and satisfactory master curves are achieved by use of this principle. Also, fiber and matrix treatments were effective in increasing mechanical properties of biobased composites in short-term, and treatments delayed the creep response and slowed the process of creep in composites under study in the steady state region. Overall, results of this study reveal the successful production of biocomposites having properties that meet or exceed those of conventional pultruded members while maintaining high biocontent. Composites using treated flax fiber and newly developed resins showed less

Predictors of Short- and Long-Term Attrition From the Parents as Agents of Change Randomized Controlled Trial for Managing Pediatric Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Spence, Nicholas D; Newton, Amanda S; Keaschuk, Rachel A; Ambler, Kathryn A; Jetha, Mary M; Holt, Nicholas L; Rosychuk, Rhonda J; Spence, John C; Sharma, Arya M; Ball, Geoff D C

Attrition in pediatric weight management is a substantial problem. This study examined factors associated with short- and long-term attrition from a lifestyle and behavioral intervention for parents of children with overweight or obesity. Fifty-two families with children ages 6 to 12 years old and body mass index at or above the 85th percentile participated in a randomized controlled trial focused on parents, comparing parent-based cognitive behavioral therapy with parent-based psychoeducation for pediatric weight management. We examined program attrition using two clinical phases of the intervention: short-term and long-term attrition, modeled using the general linear model. Predictors included intervention type, child/parent weight status, sociodemographic factors, and health of the family system. Higher self-assessed health of the family system was associated with lower short-term attrition; higher percentage of intervention sessions attended by parents was associated with lower long-term attrition. Different variables were significant in our short- and long-term models. Attrition might best be conceptualized based on short- and long-term phases of clinical, parent-based interventions for pediatric weight management. Copyright © 2016 National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Present and long-term composition of MSW landfill leachate: A review

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjeldsen, Peter; Barlaz, M.A.; Rooker, A.P.

2002-01-01

The major potential environmental impacts related to landfill leachate are pollution of groundwater and surface waters. Landfill leachate contains pollutants that can be categorized into four groups (dissolved organic matter, inorganic macrocomponents, heavy metals, and xenobiotic organic compounds...... are observed. In contrast, the concentration of ammonia does not decrease, and often constitutes a major long-term pollutant in leachate. A broad range of xenobiotic organic compounds is observed in landfill leachate. The long-term behavior of landfills with respect to changes in oxidation-reduction status...... is discussed based on theory and model simulations. It seems that the somewhere postulated enhanced release of accumulated heavy metals would not take place within the time frames of thousands of years. This is supported by a few laboratory investigations. The existing data and model evaluations indicate...

[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

Science.gov (United States)

Plancke, L; Amariei, A

2017-02-01

Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views.

Science.gov (United States)

Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Fricker, Tyler

2016-01-01

This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km. Refitting the model after removing the least damaging tornadoes from the data (EF0) produces a similar map but with the greatest tornado risk shifted south and eastward. Second, a space-time model is fit to the counts aggregated in raster cells with terms that control for changes in climate factors. Results provide a short-term view of risk. The short-term view identifies a shift of tornado activity away from the Ohio Valley under El Niño conditions and away from the Southeast under positive North Atlantic oscillation conditions. The combined predictor effects on the local rates is quantified by fitting the model after leaving out the year to be predicted from the data. The models provide state-of-the-art views of tornado risk that can be used by government agencies, the insurance industry, and the general public.

Hydrothermal behaviors and long-term stability of bentonitic buffer material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jae Owan; Cho, Won Jin

2007-01-01

In hydrothermal reaction tests, smectite-to-illite conversion was identified using a domestic bentonite which is favorably considered as a buffer material, and its dependency on various hydrothermal conditions was investigated. The analysis results of the XRD and Si concentration indicated that the smectite-to- illite conversion was a major process of bentonite alteration under the hydrothermal conditions. The temperature, potassium concentration in solution, and pH were observed to significantly affect the smectite-to illite conversion. A model of conversion reaction rate was suggested evaluate the long-term stability of smectite composing a major constituent of bentonitic buffer. It was expected from the evaluation results that the smectite would keep its integrity for very long disposal time under a normal condition, while as it might be converted to illite by 50 percent after over 5 x 10 4 year of disposal time under a conservative condition and consequently lose its swelling capacity as a buffer material of a repository

Modelling of long-term and short-term mechanisms of arterial pressure control in the cardiovascular system: an object-oriented approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez de Canete, J; Luque, J; Barbancho, J; Munoz, V

2014-04-01

A mathematical model that provides an overall description of both the short- and long-term mechanisms of arterial pressure regulation is presented. Short-term control is exerted through the baroreceptor reflex while renal elimination plays a role in long-term control. Both mechanisms operate in an integrated way over the compartmental model of the cardiovascular system. The whole system was modelled in MODELICA, which uses a hierarchical object-oriented modelling strategy, under the DYMOLA simulation environment. The performance of the controlled system was analysed by simulation in light of the existing hypothesis and validation tests previously performed with physiological data, demonstrating the effectiveness of both regulation mechanisms under physiological and pathological conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landfill in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Simões, Gustavo Ferreira; Catapreta, Cícero Antônio Antunes

2013-02-01

Settlement evaluation in sanitary landfills is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-varying properties and influencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load application and creep, and physical-chemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposition. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landfills are reported in the literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years in Belo Horizonte experimental landfill. Different sets of field data were used to calibrate three long-term settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the calibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual field data. During the monitoring period of 6 years, significant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of the experimental landfill. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic and rheological models significantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibration. The best fits were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year field data were used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger final settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework.

Science.gov (United States)

de Castro, Mário; Cancho, Vicente G; Rodrigues, Josemar

2010-02-01

In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. In this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconsolidation of long-term memory in Aplysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Diancai; Pearce, Kaycey; Chen, Shanping; Glanzman, David L

2012-10-09

When an animal is reminded of a prior experience and shortly afterward treated with a protein synthesis inhibitor, the consolidated memory for the experience can be disrupted; by contrast, protein synthesis inhibition without prior reminding commonly does not disrupt long-term memory [1-3]. Such results imply that the reminding triggers reconsolidation of the memory. Here, we asked whether the behavioral and synaptic changes associated with the memory for long-term sensitization (LTS) of the siphon-withdrawal reflex in the marine snail Aplysia californica [4, 5] could undergo reconsolidation. In support of this idea, we found that when sensitized animals were given abbreviated reminder sensitization training 48-96 hr after the original sensitization training, followed by treatment with the protein synthesis inhibitor anisomycin, LTS was disrupted. We also found that long-term (≥ 24 hr) facilitation (LTF) [6], which can be induced in the monosynaptic connection between Aplysia sensory and motor neurons in dissociated cell culture by multiple spaced pulses of the endogenous facilitatory transmitter serotonin (5-HT) [7, 8], could be eliminated by treating the synapses with one reminder pulse of 5-HT, followed by anisomycin, at 48 hr after the original training. Our results provide a simple model system for understanding the synaptic basis of reconsolidation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, Chen [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Gupta, Vipul [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Huang, Shenyan [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Soare, Monica [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Zhao, Pengyang [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Wang, Yunzhi [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States)

2017-02-28

The goal of this project is to model long-term creep performance for nickel-base superalloy weldments in high temperature power generation systems. The project uses physics-based modeling methodologies and algorithms for predicting alloy properties in heterogeneous material structures. The modeling methodology will be demonstrated on a gas turbine combustor liner weldment of Haynes 282 precipitate-strengthened nickel-base superalloy. The major developments are: (1) microstructure-property relationships under creep conditions and microstructure characterization (2) modeling inhomogeneous microstructure in superalloy weld (3) modeling mesoscale plastic deformation in superalloy weld and (4) a constitutive creep model that accounts for weld and base metal microstructure and their long term evolution. The developed modeling technology is aimed to provide a more efficient and accurate assessment of a material’s long-term performance compared with current testing and extrapolation methods. This modeling technology will also accelerate development and qualification of new materials in advanced power generation systems. This document is a final technical report for the project, covering efforts conducted from October 2014 to December 2016.

Transcranial direct current stimulation improves long-term memory deficits in an animal model of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and modulates oxidative and inflammatory parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Leffa, Douglas Teixeira; Bellaver, Bruna; Salvi, Artur Alban; de Oliveira, Carla; Caumo, Wolnei; Grevet, Eugenio Horacio; Fregni, Felipe; Quincozes-Santos, André; Rohde, Luis Augusto; Torres, Iraci L S

2018-04-05

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a technique that modulates neuronal activity and has been proposed as a potential therapeutic tool for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms. Although pilot studies have shown evidence of efficacy, its mechanism of action remains unclear. We evaluated the effects of tDCS on behavioral (working and long-term memory) and neurochemical (oxidative and inflammatory parameters) outcomes related to ADHD pathophysiology. We used the most widely accepted animal model of ADHD: spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). The selected behavioral outcomes have been shown to be altered in both ADHD patients and animal models, and were chosen for their relation to the proposed mechanistic action of tDCS. Adult male SHR and their control, the Wistar Kyoto rats (WKY), were subjected to 20 min of bicephalic tDCS or sham stimulation for 8 consecutive days. Working memory, long-term memory, and neurochemical outcomes were evaluated. TDCS improved long-term memory deficits presented by the SHR. No change in working memory performance was observed. In the hippocampus, tDCS increased both the production of reactive oxygen species in SHR and the levels of the antioxidant molecule glutathione in both strains. TDCS also modulated inflammatory response in the brains of WKY by downregulating pro-inflammatory cytokines. TDCS had significant effects that were specific for strain, type of behavioral and neurochemical outcomes. The long-term memory improvement in the SHR may point to a possible therapeutic role of tDCS in ADHD that does not seem to be mediated by inflammatory markers. Additionally, the anti-inflammatory effects observed in the brain of WKY after tDCS needs to be further explored. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reforming Management of Behavior Symptoms and Psychiatric Conditions in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Different Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Levenson, Steven A; Desai, Abhilash K

2017-04-01

Despite much attention including national initiatives, concerns remain about the approaches to managing behavior symptoms and psychiatric conditions across all settings, including in long-term care settings such as nursing homes and assisted living facilities. One key reason why problems persist is because most efforts to "reform" and "correct" the situation have failed to explore or address root causes and instead have promoted inadequate piecemeal "solutions." Further improvement requires jumping off the bandwagon and rethinking the entire issue, including recognizing and applying key concepts of clinical reasoning and the care delivery process to every situation. The huge negative impact of cognitive biases and rote approaches on related clinical problem solving and decision making and patient outcomes also must be addressed. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets: Empirical evidence from Nord Pool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

2010-01-01

In this paper we propose a three-factor spike model that accounts for different speeds of mean reversion between normal and spiky shocks in the Scandinavian power market. In this model both short and long-run factors are unobservable and are hence estimated as latent variables using the Kalman filter. The proposed model has several advantages. First, it seems to capture in a parsimonious way the most important risks that practitioners face in the market, such as spike risk, short-term risk and long-term risk. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium observed in the market and improves the fit between theoretical and observed forward prices, particularly for long-dated forward contracts. Finally, closed-form solutions for forward contracts, derived from the model, are consistent with the fact that the correlation between contracts of different maturities is imperfect. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful policy analysis and financial engineering tool to market participants for risk management and derivative pricing particularly for long-dated contracts.

A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Achdou, Yves, E-mail: achdou@ljll.univ-paris-diderot.fr [Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, UMR 7598, UPMC, CNRS (France); Giraud, Pierre-Noel [CERNA, Mines ParisTech (France); Lasry, Jean-Michel [Univ. Paris Dauphine (France); Lions, Pierre-Louis [Collège de France (France)

2016-12-15

A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Achdou, Yves; Giraud, Pierre-Noel; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis

2016-01-01

A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

Protective effects of long-term lithium administration in a slowly progressive SMA mouse model.

Science.gov (United States)

Biagioni, Francesca; Ferrucci, Michela; Ryskalin, Larisa; Fulceri, Federica; Lazzeri, Gloria; Calierno, Maria Teresa; Busceti, Carla L; Ruffoli, Riccardo; Fornai, Francesco

2017-12-01

In the present study we evaluated the long-term effects of lithium administration to a knock-out double transgenic mouse model (Smn-/-; SMN1A2G+/-; SMN2+/+) of Spinal Muscle Atrophy type III (SMA-III). This model is characterized by very low levels of the survival motor neuron protein, slow disease progression and motor neuron loss, which enables to detect disease-modifying effects at delayed time intervals. Lithium administration attenuates the decrease in motor activity and provides full protection from motor neuron loss occurring in SMA-III mice, throughout the disease course. In addition, lithium prevents motor neuron enlargement and motor neuron heterotopy and suppresses the occurrence of radial-like glial fibrillary acidic protein immunostaining in the ventral white matter of SMA-III mice. In SMA-III mice long-term lithium administration determines a dramatic increase of survival motor neuron protein levels in the spinal cord. These data demonstrate that long-term lithium administration during a long-lasting motor neuron disorder attenuates behavioural deficit and neuropathology. Since low level of survival motor neuron protein is bound to disease severity in SMA, the robust increase in protein level produced by lithium provides solid evidence which calls for further investigations considering lithium in the long-term treatment of spinal muscle atrophy.

Comparison of the long-term behavioral effects of neonatal exposure to retigabine or phenobarbital in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Frankel, Sari; Medvedeva, Natalia; Gutherz, Samuel; Kulick, Catherine; Kondratyev, Alexei; Forcelli, Patrick A

2016-04-01

Anticonvulsant drugs, when given during vulnerable periods of brain development, can have long-lasting consequences on nervous system function. In rats, the second postnatal week approximately corresponds to the late third trimester of gestation/early infancy in humans. Exposure to phenobarbital during this period has been associated with deficits in learning and memory, anxiety-like behavior, and social behavior, among other domains. Phenobarbital is the most common anticonvulsant drug used in neonatology. Several other drugs, such as lamotrigine, phenytoin, and clonazepam, have also been reported to trigger behavioral changes. A new generation anticonvulsant drug, retigabine, has not previously been evaluated for long-term effects on behavior. Retigabine acts as an activator of KCNQ channels, a mechanism that is unique among anticonvulsants. Here, we examined the effects retigabine exposure from postnatal day (P)7 to P14 on behavior in adult rats. We compared these effects with those produced by phenobarbital (as a positive control) and saline (as a negative control). Motor behavior was assessed by using the open field and rotarod, anxiety-like behavior by the open field, elevated plus maze, and light-dark transition task, and learning/memory by the passive avoidance task; social interactions were assessed in same-treatment pairs, and nociceptive sensitivity was assessed via the tail-flick assay. Motor behavior was unaltered by exposure to either drug. We found that retigabine exposure and phenobarbital exposure both induced increased anxiety-like behavior in adult animals. Phenobarbital, but not retigabine, exposure impaired learning and memory. These drugs also differed in their effects on social behavior, with retigabine-exposed animals displaying greater social interaction than phenobarbital-exposed animals. These results indicate that neonatal retigabine induces a subset of behavioral alterations previously described for other anticonvulsant drugs and extend

Long-term functional outcomes and correlation with regional brain connectivity by MRI diffusion tractography metrics in a near-term rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

Science.gov (United States)

Illa, Miriam; Eixarch, Elisenda; Batalle, Dafnis; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Figueras, Francesc; Gratacos, Eduard

2013-01-01

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) affects 5-10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation) and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and connectivity. At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA) revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR

The more you play, the more aggressive you become: A long-term experimental study of cumulative violent video game effects on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hasan, Y.; Bègue, L.; Scharkow, M.; Bushman, B.J.

2012-01-01

It is well established that violent video games increase aggression. There is a stronger evidence of short-term violent video game effects than of long-term effects. The present experiment tests the cumulative long-term effects of violent video games on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior

Long-term biodosimetry Redux

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

2016-01-01

This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

Short-term treatment with flumazenil restores long-term object memory in a mouse model of Down syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Colas, Damien; Chuluun, Bayarsaikhan; Garner, Craig C; Heller, H Craig

2017-04-01

Down syndrome (DS) is a common genetic cause of intellectual disability yet no pro-cognitive drug therapies are approved for human use. Mechanistic studies in a mouse model of DS (Ts65Dn mice) demonstrate that impaired cognitive function is due to excessive neuronal inhibitory tone. These deficits are normalized by chronic, short-term low doses of GABA A receptor (GABA A R) antagonists in adult animals, but none of the compounds investigated are approved for human use. We explored the therapeutic potential of flumazenil (FLUM), a GABA A R antagonist working at the benzodiazepine binding site that has FDA approval. Long-term memory was assessed by the Novel Object Recognition (NOR) testing in Ts65Dn mice after acute or short-term chronic treatment with FLUM. Short-term, low, chronic dose regimens of FLUM elicit long-lasting (>1week) normalization of cognitive function in both young and aged mice. FLUM at low dosages produces long lasting cognitive improvements and has the potential of fulfilling an unmet therapeutic need in DS. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Client interpersonal impacts as mediators of long-term outcome in cognitive-behavioral therapy integrated with motivational interviewing for generalized anxiety disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Constantino, Michael J; Romano, Felicia M; Coyne, Alice E; Westra, Henny A; Antony, Martin M

2017-03-24

A recent trial of generalized anxiety disorder treatment (Westra, H. A., Constantino, M. J., & Antony, M. M. (2016). Integrating Motivational Interviewing With Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Severe Generalized Anxiety Disorder: An Allegiance-Controlled Randomized Clinical Trial. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 84, 768-782. doi: 10.1037/ccp0000098 ) revealed that cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) integrated with motivational interviewing (MI) outperformed CBT alone across a 12-month follow up. The present study examined whether this treatment effect was mediated by MI-CBT clients engaging over time in during-session interpersonal behaviors reflecting more friendly dominance, or agentic actions, and less friendly submissiveness (FS), or trustingly compliant actions both theory-specific MI mechanisms. Clients received 15 sessions of MI-CBT (n = 42) or CBT alone (n = 43). Therapists rated client interpersonal behavior following five sessions, and clients rated their worry at baseline, each session, and 6- and 12-month follow up. Mediator and outcome variables were derived from multilevel models. Mediation was tested using a bootstrapping procedure. There was a significant indirect effect for FS. As expected, CBT clients evidenced greater increases in FS than MI-CBT clients, which in turn, though unexpectedly, related to lower 12-month worry. However, long-term CBT outcomes remained inferior to MI-CBT outcomes even with CBT clients'greater increase in FS. Results suggest that CBT outcomes are more positive when clients trustingly comply; however, MI-CBT remained superior, but for as yet unexplained reasons. Clinical or methodological significance of this article: The findings highlight the clinical importance of GAD clients becoming more friendly dominant in the therapy relationship irrespective of whether they received CBT or integrative MI-CBT. Moreover, it seems clinically indicated to incorporate MI spirit and techniques into CBT when

Long-term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities*

OpenAIRE

Fletcher, Jason; Wolfe, Barbara

2009-01-01

The question of whether childhood mental illness has long term consequences in terms of criminal behavior has been little studied, yet it could have major consequences for both the individual and society more generally. In this paper, we focus on Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), one of the most prevalent mental conditions in school-age children, to examine the long-term effects of childhood mental illness on criminal activities, controlling for a rich set of individual, family...

A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoping Yang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part II: at the beckon of the sun?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. D. Diamantides

1998-05-01

Full Text Available The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun - either now or in the past - the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

Bifurcation analysis of a delay differential equation model associated with the induction of long-term memory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao, Lijie; Yang, Zhuoqin; Lei, Jinzhi

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A delay differentiation equation model for CREB regulation is developed. • Increasing the time delay can generate various bifurcations. • Increasing the time delay can induce chaos by two routes. - Abstract: The ability to form long-term memories is an important function for the nervous system, and the formation process is dynamically regulated through various transcription factors, including CREB proteins. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a delay differential equation model for CREB protein activities, which involves two positive and two negative feedbacks in the regulatory network. We discuss the dynamical mechanisms underlying the induction of long-term memory, in which bistability is essential for the formation of long-term memory, while long time delay can destabilize the high level steady state to inhibit the long-term memory formation. The model displays rich dynamical response to stimuli, including monostability, bistability, and oscillations, and can transit between different states by varying the negative feedback strength. Introduction of a time delay to the model can generate various bifurcations such as Hopf bifurcation, fold limit cycle bifurcation, Neimark–Sacker bifurcation of cycles, and period-doubling bifurcation, etc. Increasing the time delay can induce chaos by two routes: quasi-periodic route and period-doubling cascade.

Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

2015-03-01

China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

Long-term behavior of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere – a model study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Grygalashvyly

2009-04-01

of the upper atmosphere. The long-term behavior of water vapor is discussed in particular with respect to its impact on the NLC region.

Public Perspectives Toward the Sexual Behavior of an Individual With Dementia Residing in Long-Term Care.

Science.gov (United States)

Yelland, Erin L; Cless, Adam W; Mallory, Allen B; Cless, Jessica D

2018-06-01

This study examines public perspectives toward sexual behavior within a heterosexually married couple in which one individual has dementia and resides in a long-term care facility. Respondents included 318 adults in the Southern United States. Paired sample t tests were used to understand how the diagnosis of dementia statistically influenced participants' responses, and a logistic regression model was used to understand how a vignette character's sex and respondent characteristics influenced attitudes. Fifty-eight percent of respondents believed that a sexual relationship should be permitted for an adult with dementia, and t tests revealed that dementia had a statistical effect on participants' responses. Sex of the vignette character was not a predictor of attitudes. Participant's qualitative rationales are offered for additional insight. Respondents who felt that a couple should not engage in a sexual relationship commonly cited consent-related issues as their primary concern. Implications for policy development are discussed.

Multiple Drug Treatments That Increase cAMP Signaling Restore Long-Term Memory and Aberrant Signaling in Fragile X Syndrome Models

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Catherine H.; Schoenfeld, Brian P.; Bell, Aaron J.; Hinchey, Joseph; Rosenfelt, Cory; Gertner, Michael J.; Campbell, Sean R.; Emerson, Danielle; Hinchey, Paul; Kollaros, Maria; Ferrick, Neal J.; Chambers, Daniel B.; Langer, Steven; Sust, Steven; Malik, Aatika; Terlizzi, Allison M.; Liebelt, David A.; Ferreiro, David; Sharma, Ali; Koenigsberg, Eric; Choi, Richard J.; Louneva, Natalia; Arnold, Steven E.; Featherstone, Robert E.; Siegel, Steven J.; Zukin, R. Suzanne; McDonald, Thomas V.; Bolduc, Francois V.; Jongens, Thomas A.; McBride, Sean M. J.

2016-01-01

Fragile X is the most common monogenic disorder associated with intellectual disability (ID) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Additionally, many patients are afflicted with executive dysfunction, ADHD, seizure disorder and sleep disturbances. Fragile X is caused by loss of FMRP expression, which is encoded by the FMR1 gene. Both the fly and mouse models of fragile X are also based on having no functional protein expression of their respective FMR1 homologs. The fly model displays well defined cognitive impairments and structural brain defects and the mouse model, although having subtle behavioral defects, has robust electrophysiological phenotypes and provides a tool to do extensive biochemical analysis of select brain regions. Decreased cAMP signaling has been observed in samples from the fly and mouse models of fragile X as well as in samples derived from human patients. Indeed, we have previously demonstrated that strategies that increase cAMP signaling can rescue short term memory in the fly model and restore DHPG induced mGluR mediated long term depression (LTD) in the hippocampus to proper levels in the mouse model (McBride et al., 2005; Choi et al., 2011, 2015). Here, we demonstrate that the same three strategies used previously with the potential to be used clinically, lithium treatment, PDE-4 inhibitor treatment or mGluR antagonist treatment can rescue long term memory in the fly model and alter the cAMP signaling pathway in the hippocampus of the mouse model. PMID:27445731

Long-term creep behavior of high-temperature gas turbine materials under constant and variable stress

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granacher, J.; Preussler, T.

1987-01-01

Within the framework of the documented research project, extensive creep rupture tests were carried out with characteristic, high-temperature gas turbine materials for establishment of improved design data. In the range of the main application temperatures and in stress ranges down to application-relevant values the tests extended over a period of about 40,000 hours. In addition, long-term annealing tests were carried out in the most important temperature ranges for the measurement of the density-dependent straim, which almost always manifested itself as a material contraction. Furthermore, hot tensile tests were carried out for the description of the elastoplastic short-term behavior. Several creep curves were derived from the results of the different tests with a differentiated evaluation method. On the basis of these creep curves, creep equations were set up for a series of materials which are valid in the entire examined temperature range and stress range and up to the end of the secondary creep range. Also, equations for the time-temperature-dependent description of the material contraction behavior were derived. With these equations, the high-temperature deformation behavior of the examined materials under constant creep stress can be described simply and application-oriented. (orig.) With 109 figs., 19 tabs., 77 refs [de

Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crassous, R.

2008-11-01

This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks

The family environment predicts long-term academic achievement and classroom behavior following traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Durber, Chelsea M; Yeates, Keith Owen; Taylor, H Gerry; Walz, Nicolay Chertkoff; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L

2017-07-01

This study examined how the family environment predicts long-term academic and behavioral functioning in school following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in early childhood. Using a concurrent cohort, prospective design, 15 children with severe TBI, 39 with moderate TBI, and 70 with orthopedic injury (OI) who were injured when they were 3-7 years of age were compared on tests of academic achievement and parent and teacher ratings of school performance and behavior on average 6.83 years postinjury. Soon after injury and at the longer term follow-up, families completed measures of parental psychological distress, family functioning, and quality of the home environment. Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined group differences in academic outcomes and their associations with measures of the early and later family environment. The severe TBI group, but not the moderate TBI group, performed worse than did the OI group on all achievement tests, parent ratings of academic performance, and teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Higher quality early and late home environments predicted stronger academic skills and better classroom behavior for children with both TBI and OI. The early family environment more consistently predicted academic achievement, whereas the later family environment more consistently predicted classroom functioning. The quality of the home environment predicted academic outcomes more strongly than did parental psychological distress or family functioning. TBI in early childhood has long-term consequences for academic achievement and school performance and behavior. Higher quality early and later home environments predict better school outcomes for both children with TBI and children with OI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Long-term perspectives on world metal use - a model-based approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren DP; Strengers BJ; Vries HJM de; MNV

1999-01-01

In this report, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This

Short- and Long-Term Feedbacks on Vegetation Water Use: Unifying Evidence from Observations and Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mackay, D. S.

2001-05-01

Recent efforts to measure and model the interacting influences of climate, soil, and vegetation on soil water and nutrient dynamics have identified numerous important feedbacks that produce nonlinear responses. In particular, plant physiological factors that control rates of transpiration respond to soil water deficits and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in the short-term, and to climate, nutrient cycling and disturbance in the long-term. The starting point of this presentation is the observation that in many systems, in particular forest ecosystems, conservative water use emerges as a result of short-term closure of stomata in response to high evaporative demand, and long-term vegetative canopy development under nutrient limiting conditions. Evidence for important short-term controls is presented from sap flux measurements of stand transpiration, remote sensing, and modeling of transpiration through a combination of physically-based modeling and Monte Carlo analysis. A common result is a strong association between stomatal conductance (gs) and the negative evaporative gain (∂ gs/∂ VPD) associated with the sensitivity of stomatal closure to rates of water loss. The importance of this association from the standpoint of modeling transpiration depends on the degree of canopy-atmosphere coupling. This suggests possible simplifications to future canopy component models for use in watershed and larger-scale hydrologic models for short-term processes. However, further results are presented from theoretical modeling, which suggest that feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation in current long-term (inter-annual to century) models may be too simple, as they do not capture the spatially variable nature of slow nutrient cycling in response to soil water dynamics and site history. Memory effects in the soil nutrient pools can leave lasting effects on more rapid processes associated with soil, vegetation, atmosphere coupling.

Long- and short-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality: using novel exposure models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kloog, Itai; Ridgway, Bill; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A; Schwartz, Joel D

2013-07-01

Many studies have reported associations between ambient particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects, focused on either short-term (acute) or long-term (chronic) PM exposures. For chronic effects, the studied cohorts have rarely been representative of the population. We present a novel exposure model combining satellite aerosol optical depth and land-use data to investigate both the long- and short-term effects of PM2.5 exposures on population mortality in Massachusetts, United States, for the years 2000-2008. All deaths were geocoded. We performed two separate analyses: a time-series analysis (for short-term exposure) where counts in each geographic grid cell were regressed against cell-specific short-term PM2.5 exposure, temperature, socioeconomic data, lung cancer rates (as a surrogate for smoking), and a spline of time (to control for season and trends). In addition, for long-term exposure, we performed a relative incidence analysis using two long-term exposure metrics: regional 10 × 10 km PM2.5 predictions and local deviations from the cell average based on land use within 50 m of the residence. We tested whether these predicted the proportion of deaths from PM-related causes (cardiovascular and respiratory diseases). For short-term exposure, we found that for every 10-µg/m increase in PM 2.5 exposure there was a 2.8% increase in PM-related mortality (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.0-3.5). For the long-term exposure at the grid cell level, we found an odds ratio (OR) for every 10-µg/m increase in long-term PM2.5 exposure of 1.6 (CI = 1.5-1.8) for particle-related diseases. Local PM2.5 had an OR of 1.4 (CI = 1.3-1.5), which was independent of and additive to the grid cell effect. We have developed a novel PM2.5 exposure model based on remote sensing data to assess both short- and long-term human exposures. Our approach allows us to gain spatial resolution in acute effects and an assessment of long-term effects in the entire population rather than a

Modeling of long-term energy system of Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gotoh, Yoshitaka; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro

1999-07-01

In order to analyze the future potential of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the long-term energy system of Japan was modeled following the framework of the MARKAL model, and the database of energy technology characteristics was developed. First, a reference energy system was built by incorporating all important energy sources and technologies that will be available until the year 2050. This system consists of 25 primary energy sources, 33 technologies for electric power generation and/or low temperature heat production, 97 technologies for energy transformation, storage, and distribution, and 170 end-use technologies. Second, the database was developed for the characteristics of individual technologies in the system. The characteristic data consists of input and output of energy carriers, efficiency, availability, lifetime, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, CO 2 emission coefficient, and others. Since a large number of technologies are included in the system, this report focuses modeling of a supply side, and involves the database of energy technologies other than for end-use purposes. (author)

Thermal and physicochemical properties important for the long term behavior of nuclear waste glasses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vernaz, E.; Matzke, H.J.

1992-01-01

High level nuclear waste from reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel has to be solidified in a stable matrix for safe long-time storage. Vitrification in borosilicate glasses is the technique accepted worldwide. A number of different glasses was developed in different national programs. The criteria and the reasons for selecting the final compositions are briefly described. Emphasis is placed on the French product R7T7 and on thermal and physicochemical properties though glasses developed in other national projects (e.g. the German product GP 98/12 etc.) are also treated. The basic physical and mechanical properties and the chemical durability of the glass in contact with water or other aqueous solutions are described. The basic mechanisms of aqueous corrosion are discussed and the evolving modelling of the leaching process is dealt with, as well as effects of container material, backfill, etc. The thermal behavior has also been studied and extensive data exist on diffusion of glass constituents (Na) and of interesting elements of the waste such as the alkalis Rb and Cs or the actinides U and Pu, as well as on crystallization processes in the glass during storage at elevated temperatures. Emphasis is placed on the radiation stability of the glasses, based on extensive studies using short-lived actinides (e.g. Cm-244) or ion-implantation to produce the damage expected during long storage at an accelerated rate. The radiation stability is shown to be very good, if realistic damage conditions are used. The knowledge accumulated in the past years is used to evaluate and predict the long-term evolution of the glass under storage conditions

Study on effects of coupled phenomenon on long-term behavior for crystalline rock (Joint research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimoto, Kazushi; Ichikawa, Yasuaki; Matsui, Hiroya

2017-11-01

It is important to evaluate the stability of a repository for high-level radioactive waste not only during the design, construction and operation phases, but also during the post-closure period, for time frames likely exceeding several millennia or longer. The rock mass around the tunnels could be deformed through time in response to time dependent behavior such as creep and stress relaxation. On the other hand, it was revealed that chemical reaction of groundwater in rock has an influence on the long-term behavior. Therefore, an evaluation of the microcracks influencing on rock mechanical and chemical coupled phenomena is the issue to understand the past long-term behavior of rock mass. In view of above points, this study has been started as joint research with Okayama University from Fiscal Year 2016. In Fiscal Year 2016, several kinds of elastic wave velocity were measured using ultra sonic sensors and laser Doppler vibrometer to evaluate the anisotropy of different elastic wave in granite. The velocity measurements were carried out focused on transmitted wave and surface wave. The results showed that strong anisotropy was observed in transmitted P-wave velocity while weak anisotropy was observed in transmitted S-wave and group velocity estimated by surface velocity measurement. In addition, data obtained from surface velocity measurement was partitioned into transmitted and reflected waves and analyzed them in detail. It resulted that elastic wave due to mineral particles to compose granite was dispersed; however, significant dispersion was only observed at specific location. For the future study, understanding of the relationship between density and anisotropy of micro cracks also anisotropy and strong dispersion of group velocity is important subject to estimate the geometrical distribution of micro cracks in granitic rock. (author)

Mathematical models of human paralyzed muscle after long-term training

OpenAIRE

Frey Law, L.A.; Shields, R.K.

2007-01-01

Spinal cord injury (SCI) results in major musculoskeletal adaptations, including muscle atrophy, faster contractile properties, increased fatigability, and bone loss. The use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) provides a method to prevent paralyzed muscle adaptations in order to sustain force-generating capacity. Mathematical muscle models may be able to predict optimal activation strategies during FES, however muscle properties further adapt with long-term training. The purpose of th...

Statistical modeling of the Internet traffic dynamics: To which extent do we need long-term correlations?

Science.gov (United States)

Markelov, Oleg; Nguyen Duc, Viet; Bogachev, Mikhail

2017-11-01

Recently we have suggested a universal superstatistical model of user access patterns and aggregated network traffic. The model takes into account the irregular character of end user access patterns on the web via the non-exponential distributions of the local access rates, but neglects the long-term correlations between these rates. While the model is accurate for quasi-stationary traffic records, its performance under highly variable and especially non-stationary access dynamics remains questionable. In this paper, using an example of the traffic patterns from a highly loaded network cluster hosting the website of the 1998 FIFA World Cup, we suggest a generalization of the previously suggested superstatistical model by introducing long-term correlations between access rates. Using queueing system simulations, we show explicitly that this generalization is essential for modeling network nodes with highly non-stationary access patterns, where neglecting long-term correlations leads to the underestimation of the empirical average sojourn time by several decades under high throughput utilization.

Modeling Long Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laila Alejandra Puntel

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L. can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L. yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1 applied to corn. Our objectives were to: a quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; b compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and c utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simultaneously simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration, which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration. For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-yr mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40 to 50 kg N ha-1. However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching with precipitation. We concluded that long term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add

Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

Science.gov (United States)

Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

2016-01-01

Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn ( Zea mays L. ) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean ( Glycine max L. ) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha -1 ) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha -1 ). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward

SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM WATER LEVEL PREDICTION AT ONE RIVER MEASUREMENT LOCATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rudolf Scitovski

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Global hydrological cycles mainly depend on climate changes whose occurrence is predominantly triggered by solar and terrestrial influence, and the knowledge of the high water regime is widely applied in hydrology. Regular monitoring and studying of river water level behavior is important from several perspectives. On the basis of the given data, by using modifications of general approaches known from literature, especially from investigation in hydrology, the problem of long- and short-term water level forecast at one river measurement location is considered in the paper. Long-term forecasting is considered as the problem of investigating the periodicity of water level behavior by using linear-trigonometric regression and short-term forecasting is based on the modification of the nearest neighbor method. The proposed methods are tested on data referring to the Drava River level by Donji Miholjac, Croatia, in the period between the beginning of 1900 and the end of 2012.

Loners, Groupies, and Long-term Eccentricity (and Inclination) Behavior: Insights from Secular Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Van Laerhoven, Christa L.

2015-05-01

Considering the secular dynamics of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Secular interactions are those that don't involve knowing where a planet is along its orbit, and they dominate when planets are not involved in mean motion resonances. These interactions exchange angular momentum among the planets, evolving their eccentricities and inclinations. To second order in the planets' eccentricities and inclinations, the eccentricity and inclination perturbations are decoupled. Given the right variable choice, the relevant differential equations are linear and thus the eccentricity and inclination behaviors can be described as a sum of eigenmodes. Since the underlying structure of the secular eigenmodes can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in exoplanet systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. I have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods. Using this catalog of secular character, I will discuss the prevalence of dynamically grouped planets ('groupies') versus dynamically uncoupled planets ('loners') and how this relates to the exoplanets' long-term eccentricity and inclination behavior. I will also touch on the distribution of the secular eigenfreqiencies.

Pitch Sequence Complexity and Long-Term Pitcher Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel R. Bock

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Winning one or two games during a Major League Baseball (MLB season is often the difference between a team advancing to post-season play, or “waiting until next year”. Technology advances have made it feasible to augment historical data with in-game contextual data to provide managers immediate insights regarding an opponent’s next move, thereby providing a competitive edge. We developed statistical models of pitcher behavior using pitch sequences thrown during three recent MLB seasons (2011–2013. The purpose of these models was to predict the next pitch type, for each pitcher, based on data available at the immediate moment, in each at-bat. Independent models were developed for each player’s most frequent four pitches. The overall predictability of next pitch type is 74:5%. Additional analyses on pitcher predictability within specific game situations are discussed. Finally, using linear regression analysis, we show that an index of pitch sequence predictability may be used to project player performance in terms of Earned Run Average (ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP over a longer term. On a restricted range of the independent variable, reducing complexity in selection of pitches is correlated with higher values of both FIP and ERA for the players represented in the sample. Both models were significant at the α = 0.05 level (ERA: p = 0.022; FIP: p = 0.0114. With further development, such models may reduce risk faced by management in evaluation of potential trades, or to scouts assessing unproven emerging talent. Pitchers themselves might benefit from awareness of their individual statistical tendencies, and adapt their behavior on the mound accordingly. To our knowledge, the predictive model relating pitch-wise complexity and long-term performance appears to be novel.

Stochastic models for structured populations scaling limits and long time behavior

CERN Document Server

Meleard, Sylvie

2015-01-01

In this contribution, several probabilistic tools to study population dynamics are developed. The focus is on scaling limits of qualitatively different stochastic individual based models and the long time behavior of some classes of limiting processes. Structured population dynamics are modeled by measure-valued processes describing the individual behaviors and taking into account the demographic and mutational parameters, and possible interactions between individuals. Many quantitative parameters appear in these models and several relevant normalizations are considered, leading  to infinite-dimensional deterministic or stochastic large-population approximations. Biologically relevant questions are considered, such as extinction criteria, the effect of large birth events, the impact of  environmental catastrophes, the mutation-selection trade-off, recovery criteria in parasite infections, genealogical properties of a sample of individuals. These notes originated from a lecture series on Structured P...

School-based smoking prevention programs with the promise of long-term effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flay Brian R

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract I provide a systematic review of trials of school-based smoking prevention programs that had at least 15 sessions, preferably with some in high school, that reported significant short-term effects, and that included long-term follow-up. This is supplemented with a description of some other programs that produce short-term effects that portend large long-term effects. I conclude that school-based programs can have long-term effects of practical importance it they: include 15 or more sessions over multiple years, including some in high school; use the social influence model and interactive delivery methods; include components on norms, commitment not to use, intentions not to use, and training and practice in the use of refusal and other life skills; and use peer leaders in some role. School-based programs of this type can reduce smoking onset by 25–30%, and school plus community programs can reduce smoking onset by 35–40% by the end of high school. Some early childhood programs that do not have smoking prevention as their main aim, including home nursing, the Good Behavior Game, the Positive Action program and others, seem to change the developmental trajectories of children so that they are less likely to engage in multiple problem behaviors, including smoking, as adolescents. This review makes it clear that effective school-based smoking prevention programs exist and can be adopted, adapted and deployed with success – and should be.

Relative phase asynchrony and long-range correlation of long-term solar magnetic activity

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Linhua

2017-07-01

Statistical signal processing is one of the most important tasks in a large amount of areas of scientific studies, such as astrophysics, geophysics, and space physics. Phase recurrence analysis and long-range persistence are the two dynamical structures of the underlying processes for the given natural phenomenon. Linear and nonlinear time series analysis approaches (cross-correlation analysis, cross-recurrence plot, wavelet coherent transform, and Hurst analysis) are combined to investigate the relative phase interconnection and long-range correlation between solar activity and geomagnetic activity for the time interval from 1932 January to 2017 January. The following prominent results are found: (1) geomagnetic activity lags behind sunspot numbers with a phase shift of 21 months, and they have a high level of asynchronous behavior; (2) their relative phase interconnections are in phase for the periodic scales during 8-16 years, but have a mixing behavior for the periodic belts below 8 years; (3) both sunspot numbers and geomagnetic activity can not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon because their dynamical behaviors display a long-term correlation and a fractal nature. We believe that the presented conclusions could provide further information on understanding the dynamical coupling of solar dynamo process with geomagnetic activity variation, and the crucial role of solar and geomagnetic activity in the long-term climate change.

Human Albumin Improves Long-Term Behavioral Sequelae After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Through Neurovascular Remodeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Yi; Liu, Wenhua; Zhang, Xiaohao; Wang, Liumin; Xu, Lili; Xiong, Yunyun; Yang, Lian; Sang, Hongfei; Ye, Ruidong; Liu, Xinfeng

2015-10-01

Subarachnoid hemorrhage results in significant long-lasting neurologic sequelae. Here, we investigated whether human albumin improves long-term outcomes in experimental subarachnoid hemorrhage and whether neurovascular remodeling is involved in the protection of albumin. Laboratory investigation. Hospital research laboratory. Male Sprague-Dawley rats. Rats underwent subarachnoid hemorrhage by endovascular perforation. Albumin of either 0.63 or 1.25 g/kg was injected IV immediately after the surgery. Modified Garcia test, beam-walking test, novel object recognition, and Morris water maze were employed to determine the behavioral deficits. The effects of albumin on early neurovascular dysfunction and chronic synaptic plasticity were also studied. Both doses of albumin significantly improved the sensorimotor scores (F = 31.277; p = 0.001) and cognitive performance (F = 7.982; p = 0.001 in novel object recognition test; and F = 3.431; p = 0.026 in the latency analysis of Morris water maze test) for at least 40 days after subarachnoid hemorrhage. There were remarkable microvasculature hypoperfusion, intracranial pressure rise, early vasoconstriction, neural apoptosis, and degeneration in subarachnoid hemorrhage rats, with albumin significantly attenuating such neurovascular dysfunction. Furthermore, albumin markedly prevented blood-brain barrier disruption, as indicated by less blood-brain barrier leakage, preserved blood-brain barrier-related proteins, and dampened gelatinase activities. The expressions of key synaptic elements were up-regulated with albumin supplementation in both acute and chronic phases. Accordingly, a higher dendritic spine density was observed in the prefrontal and hippocampal areas of albumin-treated subarachnoid hemorrhage animals. Albumin at low-to-moderate doses markedly improves long-term neurobehavioral sequelae after subarachnoid hemorrhage, which may involve an integrated process of neurovascular remodeling.

Long-term BPA infusions. Evaluation in the rat brain tumor and rat spinal cord models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coderre, J.A.; Micca, P.L.; Nawrocky, M.M.; Joel, D.D.; Morris, G.M.

2000-01-01

In the BPA-based dose escalation clinical trial, the observations of tumor recurrence in areas of extremely high calculated tumor doses suggest that the BPA distribution is non-uniform. Longer (6-hour) i.v. infusions of BPA are evaluated in the rat brain tumor and spinal cord models to address the questions of whether long-term infusions are more effective against the tumor and whether long-term infusions are detrimental in the central nervous system. In the rat spinal cord, the 50% effective doses (ED 50 ) for myeloparesis were not significantly different after a single i.p. injection of BPA-fructose or a 6 hour i.v. infusion. In the rat 9L gliosarcoma brain tumor model, BNCT following 2-hr or 6-hr infusions of BPA-F produced similar levels of long term survival. (author)

Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine

2009-01-01

In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long...... alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.......-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk...

Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

2005-12-15

Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

2005-01-01

Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

Long-term solar activity and terrestrial connections. Part II: at the beckon of the sun?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. D. Diamantides

Full Text Available The research task described herein aims at the structuring of an analytical tool that traces the time course of geophysical phenomena, regional or global, and compares it to the course of long-term solar conditions, long-term meaning decades or a few centuries. The model is based on the premise that since in a last analysis the preponderance of atmospheric, hydrospheric, and, possibly, some aspects of geospheric phenomena are, or have been, powered by energy issuing from the sun - either now or in the past - the long-term behavior of such phenomena is ultimately "connected" to long-term changes occurring in the sun itself. Accordingly, the proposed research firstly derives and models a stable surrogate pattern for the long-term solar activity, secondly introduces a transfer-function algorithm for modeling the connection between the surrogate and terrestrial phenomena viewed as partners in the connection, and thirdly probes the connection outcome for episodic or unanticipated effects that may arise due to the fact that in the present context, the connection, should it exist, is very likely nonlinear. Part I of the study presents the theory of the concept, while Part II demonstrates the concept's pertinence to a number of terrestrial phenomena.

Key words. Solar activity · Kolmogorov algorithm

Long Term Incentives for Residential Customers Using Dynamic Tariff

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Shaojun; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

2015-01-01

This paper reviews several grid tariff schemes, including flat tariff, time-of-use, time-varying tariff, demand charge and dynamic tariff (DT), from the perspective of the long term incentives. The long term incentives can motivate the owners of flexible demands to change their energy consumption...... behavior in such a way that the power system operation issues, such as system balance and congestion, can be alleviated. From the comparison study, including analysis and case study, the DT scheme outperforms the other tariff schemes in terms of cost saving and network operation condition improving....

A scalable computational framework for establishing long-term behavior of stochastic reaction networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ankit Gupta

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed.

Time-series modeling: applications to long-term finfish monitoring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bireley, L.E.

1985-01-01

The growing concern and awareness that developed during the 1970's over the effects that industry had on the environment caused the electric utility industry in particular to develop monitoring programs. These programs generate long-term series of data that are not very amenable to classical normal-theory statistical analysis. The monitoring data collected from three finfish programs (impingement, trawl and seine) at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station were typical of such series and thus were used to develop methodology that used the full extent of the information in the series. The basis of the methodology was classic Box-Jenkins time-series modeling; however, the models also included deterministic components that involved flow, season and time as predictor variables. Time entered into the models as harmonic regression terms. Of the 32 models fitted to finfish catch data, 19 were found to account for more than 70% of the historical variation. The models were than used to forecast finfish catches a year in advance and comparisons were made to actual data. Usually the confidence intervals associated with the forecasts encompassed most of the observed data. The technique can provide the basis for intervention analysis in future impact assessments

Environmental radioactivity. Global transport, distribution and its long-term variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirose, Katsumi

2015-01-01

Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (F1NPP) accident, which occurred as a result of huge earthquake and resulting tsunami, had a severe impact on world communities as did Japanese, because of cause of serious radioactivity contamination in the environment. Long-term effects of radioactivity contamination from F1NPP are concerned. To assess the long-term environmental effects of the F1NPP accident, it is important to review the history of global radioactivity contamination, which started from Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear explosions in Aug. 1945. Radionuclides released in the environment as a result of atmospheric nuclear explosions, nuclear reactor accident and others are migrated between atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and lithosphere according to natural processes. We describe long-term environmental behaviors of anthropogenic radionuclides derived from the atmospheric nuclear explosions and others, which is useful to predict the behaviors and fate of the F1NPP-derived radionuclides. (author)

Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poul Alberg Østergaard

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

Rape-related symptoms in adolescents: short- and long-term outcome after cognitive behavior group therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bicanic, Iva; de Roos, Carlijn; van Wesel, Floryt; Sinnema, Gerben; van de Putte, Elise

2014-01-01

Efficacy studies on treatment in adolescent victims of single rape are lacking, even though sexual victimization is most likely to occur during adolescence and despite the fact that adolescents are at risk to develop subsequent posttraumatic stress disorder. The aim of this prospective observational study was to evaluate the short- and long-term outcomes of a nine-session cognitive behavior group therapy (STEPS), including a parallel six-session parents' group on rape-related symptomatology in female adolescents (13-18 years). STEPS includes psychoeducation, exposure in sensu as well as in vivo, cognitive restructuring, and relapse prevention. Fifty-five female adolescents with mental health problems due to single rape, but without prior sexual trauma, received STEPS while their parents participated in a support group. Subjects were assessed on posttraumatic stress (PTS) and comorbid symptoms using self-report questionnaires prior to and directly after treatment, and at 6 and 12 months follow-up. Repeated measures analysis showed a significant and large decrease in symptoms of PTS, anxiety, depression, anger, dissociation, sexual concerns, and behavior problems directly after treatment, which maintained at 12 months follow-up. Time since trauma did not influence the results. Dropout during STEPS was 1.8%. The results potentially suggest that the positive treatment outcomes at short- and long-term may be caused by STEPS. The encouraging findings need confirmation in future controlled studies on the effectiveness of STEPS because it may be possible that the treatment works especially well for more chronic symptoms, while the less chronic part of the sample showed considerable improvement on its own.

Modelling of long term nitrogen retention in surface waters

Science.gov (United States)

Halbfaß, S.; Gebel, M.; Bürger, S.

2010-12-01

In order to derive measures to reduce nutrient loadings into waters in Saxony, we calculated nitrogen inputs with the model STOFFBILANZ on the regional scale. Thereby we have to compare our modelling results to measured loadings at the river basin outlets, considering long term nutrient retention in surface waters. The most important mechanism of nitrogen retention is the denitrification in the contact zone of water and sediment, being controlled by hydraulic and micro-biological processes. Retention capacity is derived on the basis of the nutrient spiralling concept, using water residence time (hydraulic aspect) and time-specific N-uptake by microorganisms (biological aspect). Short time related processes of mobilization and immobilization are neglected, because they are of minor importance for the derivation of measures on the regional scale.

Semi-automatic long-term acoustic surveying

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreassen, Tórur; Surlykke, Annemarie; Hallam, John

2014-01-01

Increasing concern about decline in biodiversity has created a demand for population surveys. Acoustic monitoring is an efficient non-invasive method, which may be deployed for surveys of animals as diverse as insects, birds, and bats. Long-term unmanned automatic monitoring may provide unique...... to determine bat behavior and correct for the bias toward loud bats inherent in acoustic surveying....

Long term adverse drug reaction to Efavirenz in a HIV infected ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

There is only one published case of serious adverse reaction to Efavirenz in an adolescent after long-term use. The case of a male HIV Positive Nigerian patient aged 13 years. He presented with five-day history of Difficulty sleeping, abnormal dreams, inability to concentrate, restlessness, irrational behavior and long-term ...

Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qijie

2015-08-01

The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

Long-term functional outcomes and correlation with regional brain connectivity by MRI diffusion tractography metrics in a near-term rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miriam Illa

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR affects 5-10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI parameters and connectivity. METHODOLOGY: At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their

Long-Term Functional Outcomes and Correlation with Regional Brain Connectivity by MRI Diffusion Tractography Metrics in a Near-Term Rabbit Model of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Science.gov (United States)

Illa, Miriam; Eixarch, Elisenda; Batalle, Dafnis; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Figueras, Francesc; Gratacos, Eduard

2013-01-01

Background Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) affects 5–10% of all newborns and is associated with increased risk of memory, attention and anxiety problems in late childhood and adolescence. The neurostructural correlates of long-term abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR are unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive description of the long-term functional and neurostructural correlates of abnormal neurodevelopment associated with IUGR in a near-term rabbit model (delivered at 30 days of gestation) and evaluate the development of quantitative imaging biomarkers of abnormal neurodevelopment based on diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and connectivity. Methodology At +70 postnatal days, 10 cases and 11 controls were functionally evaluated with the Open Field Behavioral Test which evaluates anxiety and attention and the Object Recognition Task that evaluates short-term memory and attention. Subsequently, brains were collected, fixed and a high resolution MRI was performed. Differences in diffusion parameters were analyzed by means of voxel-based and connectivity analysis measuring the number of fibers reconstructed within anxiety, attention and short-term memory networks over the total fibers. Principal Findings The results of the neurobehavioral and cognitive assessment showed a significant higher degree of anxiety, attention and memory problems in cases compared to controls in most of the variables explored. Voxel-based analysis (VBA) revealed significant differences between groups in multiple brain regions mainly in grey matter structures, whereas connectivity analysis demonstrated lower ratios of fibers within the networks in cases, reaching the statistical significance only in the left hemisphere for both networks. Finally, VBA and connectivity results were also correlated with functional outcome. Conclusions The rabbit model used reproduced long-term functional impairments and their neurostructural

Long-term effects of ionizing radiation on gene expression in a zebrafish model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lahcen Jaafar

Full Text Available Understanding how initial radiation injury translates into long-term effects is an important problem in radiation biology. Here, we define a set of changes in the transcription profile that are associated with the long-term response to radiation exposure. The study was performed in vivo using zebrafish, an established radiobiological model organism. To study the long-term response, 24 hour post-fertilization embryos were exposed to 0.1 Gy (low dose or 1.0 Gy (moderate dose of whole-body gamma radiation and allowed to develop for 16 weeks. Liver mRNA profiles were then analyzed using the Affymetrix microarray platform, with validation by quantitative PCR. As a basis for comparison, 16-week old adults were exposed at the same doses and analyzed after 4 hours. Statistical analysis was performed in a way to minimize the effects of multiple comparisons. The responses to these two treatment regimes differed greatly: 360 probe sets were associated primarily with the long-term response, whereas a different 2062 probe sets were associated primarily with the response when adults of the same age were irradiated 4 hours before exposure. Surprisingly, a ten-fold difference in radiation dose (0.1 versus 1.0 Gy had little effect. Analysis at the gene and pathway level indicated that the long-term response includes the induction of cytokine and inflammatory regulators and transcription and growth factors. The acute response includes the induction of p53 target genes and modulation of the hypoxia-induced transcription factor-C/EBP axis. Results help define genes and pathways affected in the long-term, low and moderate dose radiation response and differentiate them from those affected in an acute response in the same tissue.

Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

2015-01-01

. The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

Integrating Modeling and Monitoring to Provide Long-Term Control of Contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fogwell, Th.

2009-01-01

An introduction is presented of the types of problems that exist for long-term control of radionuclides at DOE sites. A breakdown of the distributions at specific sites is given, together with the associated difficulties. A paradigm for remediation showing the integration of monitoring with modeling is presented. It is based on a feedback system that allows for the monitoring to act as principal sensors in a control system. Currently the establishment of a very prescriptive monitoring program fails to have a mechanism for improving models and improving control of the contaminants. The resulting system can be optimized to improve performance. Optimizing monitoring automatically entails linking the monitoring with modeling. If monitoring designs were required to be more efficient, thus requiring optimization, then the monitoring automatically becomes linked to modeling. Records of decision could be written to accommodate revisions in monitoring as better modeling evolves. The technical pieces of the required paradigm are already available; they just need to be implemented and applied to solve the long-term control of the contaminants. An integration of the various parts of the system is presented. Each part is described, and examples are given. References are given to other projects which bring together similar elements in systems for the control of contaminants. Trends are given for the development of the technical features of a robust system. Examples of monitoring methods for specific sites are given. The examples are used to illustrate how such a system would work. Examples of technology needs are presented. Finally, other examples of integrated modeling-monitoring approaches are presented. (authors)

A phenomenological memristor model for synaptic memory and learning behaviors

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Nan Shao; Sheng-Bing Zhang; Shu-Yuan Shao

2017-01-01

Properties that are similar to the memory and learning functions in biological systems have been observed and reported in the experimental studies of memristors fabricated by different materials.These properties include the forgetting effect,the transition from short-term memory (STM) to long-term memory (LTM),learning-experience behavior,etc.The mathematical model of this kind of memristor would be very important for its theoretical analysis and application design.In our analysis of the existing memristor model with these properties,we find that some behaviors of the model are inconsistent with the reported experimental observations.A phenomenological memristor model is proposed for this kind of memristor.The model design is based on the forgetting effect and STM-to-LTM transition since these behaviors are two typical properties of these memristors.Further analyses of this model show that this model can also be used directly or modified to describe other experimentally observed behaviors.Simulations show that the proposed model can give a better description of the reported memory and learning behaviors of this kind of memristor than the existing model.

Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

Science.gov (United States)

Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

2012-01-01

Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

Parental divorce: long-term effects on mental health, family relations and adult sexual behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Jónsson, F H; Njardvik, U; Olafsdóttir, G; Grétarsson, S J

2000-06-01

Specific long term effects of parental divorce were examined in a sample of 179 Icelanders, 20 to 30 years of age. The participants answered the Borromean Family Index, the Affect Balance Scale and a number of questions on sexual behavior and attitudes towards marriage and divorce. Results showed that compared to adults whose parents remained married, those of divorced parents reported more negative emotional experiences at the time of the study and had looser family ties. They also had greater number of short love affairs, had their first love affair at a younger age, had a greater number of sexual partners, and were younger at the time of their first sexual intercourse than adults whose parents remained married.

Short- and long-term eating habit modification predict weight change in overweight, post-menopausal women: results from the WOMAN Study

Science.gov (United States)

Gibbs, Bethany Barone; Kinzel, Laura S.; Gabriel, Kelley Pettee; Chang, Yue-fang; Kuller, Lewis H.

2012-01-01

Background Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors, rather than caloric intake, may be an alternative strategy. Furthermore, important behaviors might differ for short- vs. long-term weight control. Objective To describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months Design Secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up Participants 465 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study Main outcome measures Changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Statistical analyses performed Linear regression models examined the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. Results At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (pstudies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. PMID:22939439

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Essays on long-term mortality and interest rate risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Kort, J.P.

2017-01-01

This dissertation comprises a study of long-term risks which play a major role in actuarial science. In Part I we analyse long-term mortality risk and its impact on consumption and investment decisions of economic agents, while Part II focuses on the mathematical modelling of long-term interest

A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Pratt, V. R.

2011-12-01

On the premise that fast climate fluctuations up to and including the 11-year solar cycle play a negligible role in long-term climate forecasting, we remove these from the 160-year HADCRUT3 global land-sea temperature record and model the result as the sum of a log-raised-exponential (log(b+exp(t))) and two sine waves of respective periods 56 and 75 years coinciding in phase in 1925. The latter two can be understood equivalently as a 62-year-period "carrier" modulated with a 440-year period that peaked in 1925 and vanished in 1705. This model gives an excellent fit, explaining 98% of the variance (r^2) of long-term climate over the 160 years. We derive the first component as the composition of Arrhenius's 1896 logarithmic dependence of surface temperature on CO2 with Hofmann's 2009 raised-exponential dependence of CO2 on time, but interpret its fit to the data as the net anthropogenic contribution incorporating all greenhouse and aerosol emissions and relevant feedbacks, bearing in mind the rapid growth in both population and technology. The 56-year oscillation matches the largest component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while the 75-year one is near an oscillation often judged to be in the vicinity of 70 years. The expected 1705 cancellation is about two decades earlier than suggested by Gray et al's tree-ring proxy for the AMO during 1567-1990 [Gray GPL 31, L12205]. While there is no consensus on the origin of ocean oscillations, the oscillations in geomagnetic secular variation noted by Nagata and Rimitake in 1963 and Slaucitajs and Winch in 1965, of respective periods 77 years and 61 years, correspond strikingly with our 76-year oscillation and 62-year "carrier." This model has a number of benefits. Simplicity. It is easily explained to a lay audience in response to the frequently voiced concern that the temperature record is poorly correlated with the CO2 record alone. It shows that the transition from natural to anthropogenic influences on long-term

Theoretical study on crystalline rock for evaluating of long-term behavior (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichikawa, Yasuaki; Seno, Yasuhiro; Sato, Toshinori; Nakama, Shigeo

2008-03-01

The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is working on the Project of Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU). The project aims at developing comprehensive techniques of geological investigation and of construction of deep underground space for a repository of HLW and/or TRU. This study contributes to an estimation of long-term stability of underground spaces. Rock materials commonly show time-dependent behavior such as creep and relaxation. The underground structures for geological disposal of radioactive wastes must keep stable not only during construction and operation but also after closing, and then the long-term stability of rock structures (over thousands of years) is essentially important for designing the structures. The true mechanism of time-dependent behavior of rock materials is not yet clearly understood, though the phenomena are widely known. This study aims at elucidating the scientific truth involved in the time-dependent behavior of rock showing creep and relaxation. We used samples of Toki granite and performed precise tests under laser microscope observation, and then developed theories representing the experimental results. These experimental and theoretical results will be served for the design and construction of the Phase III (Operation Phase) of the MIU Project. This is the report worked out in the fiscal year 2006. In this work we performed the following subjects: 1) Uniaxial and stress relaxation tests under observation of a confocal laser scanning microscope (CLSM) by using granite specimens of MIU. 2) Pressure dissolution experiment by using specimens of single crystal quartz and glass beads. 3) Development of the rate of pressure dissolution of quartz and a homogenization analysis for quartz dissolution. In Chapter 2 CLSM was used to acquire clear three-dimensional images of Mizunami granite specimens for uniaxial and stress relaxation tests, and observed the change of microscale structure including the mineral configuration under

Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Nano Silica Sol Grouting

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Nong; Zhang, Chenghao; Qian, Deyu; Han, Changliang; Yang, Sen

2018-01-01

The longevity of grouting has a significant effect on the safe and sustainable operation of many engineering projects. A 500-day experiment was carried out to study the long-term mechanical behavior of nano silica sol grouting. The nano silica sol was activated with different proportions of a NaCl catalyst and cured under fluctuating temperature and humidity conditions. The mechanical parameters of the grout samples were tested using an electrohydraulic uniaxial compression tester and an improved Vicat instrument. Scanning electron microscope, X-ray diffraction, and ultrasonic velocity tests were carried out to analyze the strength change micro-mechanism. Tests showed that as the catalyst dosage in the grout mix is decreased, the curves on the graphs showing changes in the weight and geometric parameters of the samples over time could be divided into three stages, a shrinkage stage, a stable stage, and a second shrinkage stage. The catalyst improved the stability of the samples and reduced moisture loss. Temperature rise was also a driving force for moisture loss. Uniaxial compressive stress-strain curves for all of the samples were elastoplastic. The curves for uniaxial compression strength and secant modulus plotted against time could be divided into three stages. Sample brittleness increased with time and the brittleness index increased with higher catalyst dosages in the latter part of the curing time. Plastic strength-time curves exhibit allometric scaling. Curing conditions mainly affect the compactness, and then affect the strength. PMID:29337897

Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Nano Silica Sol Grouting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dongjiang Pan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The longevity of grouting has a significant effect on the safe and sustainable operation of many engineering projects. A 500-day experiment was carried out to study the long-term mechanical behavior of nano silica sol grouting. The nano silica sol was activated with different proportions of a NaCl catalyst and cured under fluctuating temperature and humidity conditions. The mechanical parameters of the grout samples were tested using an electrohydraulic uniaxial compression tester and an improved Vicat instrument. Scanning electron microscope, X-ray diffraction, and ultrasonic velocity tests were carried out to analyze the strength change micro-mechanism. Tests showed that as the catalyst dosage in the grout mix is decreased, the curves on the graphs showing changes in the weight and geometric parameters of the samples over time could be divided into three stages, a shrinkage stage, a stable stage, and a second shrinkage stage. The catalyst improved the stability of the samples and reduced moisture loss. Temperature rise was also a driving force for moisture loss. Uniaxial compressive stress-strain curves for all of the samples were elastoplastic. The curves for uniaxial compression strength and secant modulus plotted against time could be divided into three stages. Sample brittleness increased with time and the brittleness index increased with higher catalyst dosages in the latter part of the curing time. Plastic strength-time curves exhibit allometric scaling. Curing conditions mainly affect the compactness, and then affect the strength.

Long term subsidence movements and behavior of subsidence-damaged structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahar, J.W.; Marino, G.G.

1999-01-01

Surface ground movement related to sag mine subsidence has been monitored above Illinois abandoned room and pillar coal workings for periods of more than 15 years. The long term movement related to a specific mine subsidence is typically small relative to the initial displacements but have caused crack and tilt damage in both repaired and unrepaired structures. Seasonal variations in ground surface elevations are superimposed on the downward movement related to mine subsidence. Thus it is necessary to measure long term subsidence movement at about the same time each year in order to minimize environmental factors. This paper presents long term monitoring data from five subsidence sags in central and southern Illinois. The abandoned coal mine workings are located at depths of 160 to 460 ft below the ground surface. measured residual mine subsidence ranges between 1.4 and 3.6 in. 4.4 to 15 years after mine failure. The magnitude of downward displacement is greater than settlement design values (1 in.) and are at rates (0.0004 to 0.0056 ft/month) that cause damage to structures. Most of the damage in unrepaired structures occurs along existing cracks and separations. In all five cases, the ground movements are continuing at residual rates. Sag subsidence movement in Illinois takes place for a minimum of five years after the damage is manifested at the ground surface. A classification of say development is provided based on the displacement-time data

Physiological, Molecular and Genetic Mechanisms of Long-Term Habituation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Calin-Jageman, Robert J

2009-09-12

Work funded on this grant has explored the mechanisms of long-term habituation, a ubiquitous form of learning that plays a key role in basic cognitive functioning. Specifically, behavioral, physiological, and molecular mechanisms of habituation have been explored using a simple model system, the tail-elicited siphon-withdrawal reflex (T-SWR) in the marine mollusk Aplysia californica. Substantial progress has been made on the first and third aims, providing some fundamental insights into the mechanisms by which memories are stored. We have characterized the physiological correlates of short- and long-term habituation. We found that short-term habituation is accompanied by a robust sensory adaptation, whereas long-term habituation is accompanied by alterations in sensory and interneuron synaptic efficacy. Thus, our data indicates memories can be shifted between different sites in a neural network as they are consolidated from short to long term. At the molecular level, we have accomplished microarray analysis comparing gene expression in both habituated and control ganglia. We have identified a network of putatively regulated transcripts that seems particularly targeted towards synaptic changes (e.g. SNAP25, calmodulin) . We are now beginning additional work to confirm regulation of these transcripts and build a more detailed understanding of the cascade of molecular events leading to the permanent storage of long-term memories. On the third aim, we have fostered a nascent neuroscience program via a variety of successful initiatives. We have funded over 11 undergraduate neuroscience scholars, several of whom have been recognized at national and regional levels for their research. We have also conducted a pioneering summer research program for community college students which is helping enhance access of underrepresented groups to life science careers. Despite minimal progress on the second aim, this project has provided a) novel insight into the network mechanisms by

Modelling of chemical evolution of low pH cements at long term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Bitouri, Y.; Buffo-Lacarriere, L.; Sellier, A.; Bourbon, X.

2015-01-01

In the context of the underground radioactive waste repository, low-pH cements were developed to reduce interactions between concrete and clay barrier. These cements contain high proportions of mineral additions like silica fume, fly ash or blast furnace slag for example. The high ratio of cement replacement by pozzolanic additions allows to reduce the pH by a global reduction of Ca/Si ratio of the hydrates (according to the one observed on CEM I pastes). In order to predict the short term development of the hydration for each component of this cement, a multiphasic hydration model, previously developed, is used. The model predicts the evolution of hydration degree of each anhydrous phase and consequently the quantity of each hydrate in paste (CH, aluminates, CSH with different Ca/Si ratios). However, this model is not suitable to determine the long term mineralogical and chemical evolution of the material, due to the internal change induced by chemical imbalance between initial hydrates. In order to evaluate the chemical characteristics of low pH cement based materials, and thus assess its chemical stability in the context of radioactive waste storage, a complementary model of chemical evolution at long term is proposed. This original model is based on 'solid-solution' principles. It assumes that the microdiffusion of calcium plays a major role to explain how the different Ca/Si ratio of initial C-S-H tends together toward a medium stabilized value. The main mechanisms and full development of the model equations are presented first. Next, a comparison of the model with experimental data issue from EDS (Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy) analysis on low pH cement allows to test the model. (authors)

Long-Term Behaviors of the OPC Concrete with Fly-ash and Type V Concrete Applied on Reactor Containment Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Eui Sik; Lee, Hee Taik; Paek, Yong Lak; Park, Young Soo

2010-01-01

The prestressed concrete has been used extensively in the construction of Reactor Containment Buildings (RCBs) in Korea in order to strengthen the RCBs and at the same time, prevent the release of radiation due to the Design Basis Accident and Design Basis Earthquake. It is well known that the prestressed concrete loses its prestressing force over the age, and the shrinkage and creep of the concrete significantly contributes to these long term prestressing losses. In this study, an evaluations of long term behaviors of the concrete such as creep and shrinkage have been performed for two types of concretes : Ordinary Portland Cement containing fly-ash used for the Shin- Kori 1 and 2 NPP and Type V cement used for the Ul- Chin 5 and 6 NPP

Long-Term Behaviors of the OPC Concrete with Fly-ash and Type V Concrete Applied on Reactor Containment Building

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoon, Eui Sik; Lee, Hee Taik; Paek, Yong Lak [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Young Soo [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2010-10-15

The prestressed concrete has been used extensively in the construction of Reactor Containment Buildings (RCBs) in Korea in order to strengthen the RCBs and at the same time, prevent the release of radiation due to the Design Basis Accident and Design Basis Earthquake. It is well known that the prestressed concrete loses its prestressing force over the age, and the shrinkage and creep of the concrete significantly contributes to these long term prestressing losses. In this study, an evaluations of long term behaviors of the concrete such as creep and shrinkage have been performed for two types of concretes : Ordinary Portland Cement containing fly-ash used for the Shin- Kori 1 and 2 NPP and Type V cement used for the Ul- Chin 5 and 6 NPP

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

2006-01-01

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

Long-term memory and volatility clustering in high-frequency price changes

Science.gov (United States)

oh, Gabjin; Kim, Seunghwan; Eom, Cheoljun

2008-02-01

We studied the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). For all high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property was detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property was found in the volatility time series. The possible causes of the long-term memory property were investigated using the return data filtered by the AR(1) model, reflecting the short-term memory property, the GARCH(1,1) model, reflecting the volatility clustering property, and the FIGARCH model, reflecting the long-term memory property of the volatility time series. The memory effect in the AR(1) filtered return and volatility time series remained unchanged, while the long-term memory property diminished significantly in the volatility series of the GARCH(1,1) filtered data. Notably, there is no long-term memory property, when we eliminate the long-term memory property of volatility by the FIGARCH model. For all data used, although the Hurst exponents of the volatility time series changed considerably over time, those of the time series with the volatility clustering effect removed diminish significantly. Our results imply that the long-term memory property of the volatility time series can be attributed to the volatility clustering observed in the financial time series.

Long-term release from high level waste glass. Part IV. The effect of leaching mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freude, E.; Grambow, B.; Lutze, W.; Rabe, H.; Ewing, R.C.

1984-01-01

A linear time dependence for the corrosion under near saturation conditions is considered, and a rate equation in the QTERM code is used to model the long-term behavior of the German glass, C-31-3EC, JSS A, and SRL TDS 131. 22 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Long-time and large-distance asymptotic behavior of the current-current correlators in the non-linear Schroedinger model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kozlowski, K.K. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Terras, V. [CNRS, ENS Lyon (France). Lab. de Physique

2010-12-15

We present a new method allowing us to derive the long-time and large-distance asymptotic behavior of the correlations functions of quantum integrable models from their exact representations. Starting from the form factor expansion of the correlation functions in finite volume, we explain how to reduce the complexity of the computation in the so-called interacting integrable models to the one appearing in free fermion equivalent models. We apply our method to the time-dependent zero-temperature current-current correlation function in the non-linear Schroedinger model and compute the first few terms in its asymptotic expansion. Our result goes beyond the conformal field theory based predictions: in the time-dependent case, other types of excitations than the ones on the Fermi surface contribute to the leading orders of the asymptotics. (orig.)

Long-time and large-distance asymptotic behavior of the current-current correlators in the non-linear Schroedinger model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kozlowski, K.K.; Terras, V.

2010-12-01

We present a new method allowing us to derive the long-time and large-distance asymptotic behavior of the correlations functions of quantum integrable models from their exact representations. Starting from the form factor expansion of the correlation functions in finite volume, we explain how to reduce the complexity of the computation in the so-called interacting integrable models to the one appearing in free fermion equivalent models. We apply our method to the time-dependent zero-temperature current-current correlation function in the non-linear Schroedinger model and compute the first few terms in its asymptotic expansion. Our result goes beyond the conformal field theory based predictions: in the time-dependent case, other types of excitations than the ones on the Fermi surface contribute to the leading orders of the asymptotics. (orig.)

Testing seasonal and long-term controls of streamwater DOC using empirical and process-based models.

Science.gov (United States)

Futter, Martyn N; de Wit, Heleen A

2008-12-15

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface waters are increasing across Europe and parts of North America. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain these increases including reductions in acid deposition, change in frequency of winter storms and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. We used two modelling approaches to identify the mechanisms responsible for changing surface water DOC concentrations. Empirical regression analysis and INCA-C, a process-based model of stream-water DOC, were used to simulate long-term (1986--2003) patterns in stream water DOC concentrations in a small boreal stream. Both modelling approaches successfully simulated seasonal and inter-annual patterns in DOC concentration. In both models, seasonal patterns of DOC concentration were controlled by hydrology and inter-annual patterns were explained by climatic variation. There was a non-linear relationship between warmer summer temperatures and INCA-C predicted DOC. Only the empirical model was able to satisfactorily simulate the observed long-term increase in DOC. The observed long-term trends in DOC are likely to be driven by in-soil processes controlled by SO4(2-) and Cl(-) deposition, and to a lesser extent by temperature-controlled processes. Given the projected changes in climate and deposition, future modelling and experimental research should focus on the possible effects of soil temperature and moisture on organic carbon production, sorption and desorption rates, and chemical controls on organic matter solubility.

Constraints on the affinity term for modeling long-term glass dissolution rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourcier, W.L.; Carroll, S.A.; Phillips, B.L.

1993-11-01

Predictions of long-term glass dissolution rates are highly dependent on the form of the affinity term in the rate expression. Analysis of the quantitative effect of saturation state on glass dissolution rate for CSG glass (a simple analog of SRL-165 glass), shows that a simple (1-Q/K) affinity term does not match experimental results. Our data at 100 degree C show that the data is better fit by an affinity term having the form (1 - (Q/K) 1 /σ) where σ = 10

Short- and long-term eating habit modification predicts weight change in overweight, postmenopausal women: results from the WOMAN study.

Science.gov (United States)

Barone Gibbs, Bethany; Kinzel, Laura S; Pettee Gabriel, Kelley; Chang, Yue-Fang; Kuller, Lewis H

2012-09-01

Standard behavioral obesity treatment produces poor long-term results. Focusing on healthy eating behaviors rather than energy intake may be an alternative strategy. In addition, important behaviors might differ for short- vs long-term weight control. Our aim was to describe and compare associations between changes in eating behaviors and weight after 6 and 48 months. We performed secondary analysis of data collected during a randomized weight-loss intervention trial with 48-month follow-up. We studied 481 overweight and obese postmenopausal women enrolled in the Women on the Move through Activity and Nutrition (WOMAN) Study. We measured changes in weight from baseline to 6 and 48 months. Linear regression models were used to examine the associations between 6- and 48-month changes in eating habits assessed by the Conner Diet Habit Survey and changes in weight. Analyses were conducted in the combined study population and stratified by randomization group. At 6 months in the combined population, weight loss was independently associated with decreased desserts (Pstudies should determine whether interventions targeting these behaviors could improve long-term obesity treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term exposure to noise impairs cortical sound processing and attention control.

Science.gov (United States)

Kujala, Teija; Shtyrov, Yury; Winkler, Istvan; Saher, Marieke; Tervaniemi, Mari; Sallinen, Mikael; Teder-Sälejärvi, Wolfgang; Alho, Kimmo; Reinikainen, Kalevi; Näätänen, Risto

2004-11-01

Long-term exposure to noise impairs human health, causing pathological changes in the inner ear as well as other anatomical and physiological deficits. Numerous individuals are daily exposed to excessive noise. However, there is a lack of systematic research on the effects of noise on cortical function. Here we report data showing that long-term exposure to noise has a persistent effect on central auditory processing and leads to concurrent behavioral deficits. We found that speech-sound discrimination was impaired in noise-exposed individuals, as indicated by behavioral responses and the mismatch negativity brain response. Furthermore, irrelevant sounds increased the distractibility of the noise-exposed subjects, which was shown by increased interference in task performance and aberrant brain responses. These results demonstrate that long-term exposure to noise has long-lasting detrimental effects on central auditory processing and attention control.

Optimal Long-Term Financial Contracting

OpenAIRE

Peter M. DeMarzo; Michael J. Fishman

2007-01-01

We develop an agency model of financial contracting. We derive long-term debt, a line of credit, and equity as optimal securities, capturing the debt coupon and maturity; the interest rate and limits on the credit line; inside versus outside equity; dividend policy; and capital structure dynamics. The optimal debt-equity ratio is history dependent, but debt and credit line terms are independent of the amount financed and, in some cases, the severity of the agency problem. In our model, the ag...

Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Spruyt, Adriaan; Lemaigre, Valentine; Salhi, Bihiyga; Van Gucht, Dinska; Tibboel, Helen; Van Bockstaele, Bram; De Houwer, Jan; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Nackaerts, Kristiaan

2015-07-01

It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues and long-term relapse in abstaining smokers. Implicit attitudes toward smoking-related cues were assessed by means of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) and the evaluative priming task (EPT). Both measures were completed by a group of smokers who volunteered to quit smoking (patient group) and a group of nonsmokers (control group). Participants in the patient group completed these measures twice: once prior to smoking cessation and once after smoking cessation. Relapse was assessed by means of short telephone survey, 6 months after completion of the second test session. EPT scores obtained prior to smoking cessation were related to long-term relapse and correlated with self-reported nicotine dependence as well as daily cigarette consumption. In contrast, none of the behavioral outcome measures were found to correlate with the IAT scores. These findings corroborate the idea that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues are critically involved in long-term relapse. A potential explanation for the divergent findings obtained with the IAT and EPT is provided.

A study about the long-term stability of sedimentary rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshino, Naoto; Miyanomae, Shun-ichi; Inoue, Hiroyuki; Nashimoto, Yutaka

2005-02-01

In this paper, following two issues were examined and estimated, (1) the influence of near field condition factor to the dynamical behavior of sedimentary soft rock, (2) the long term estimation of the dynamical behavior considering the condition of Horonobe area. As the study about the influence of near field condition factor to the dynamical behavior of sedimentary soft rock, the thermal factor was focused on and the laboratory tests using test pieces which were sampled in Horonobe area were carried out under the water temperature were 20 degrees and 80 degrees. As a result, the time dependence parameter in variable-compliance-type constitutive-equation could be obtained. And comparison between creep property under 20 degrees and 80 degrees was conducted. In addition, the general properties of sedimentary soft rock under several conditions were identified by the survey of the literature. And the way how to confirm the dynamical properties of sedimentary soft rock with in-situ test were presented. For the study on the short-term and long-term stability of rock surrounding buffer materials, numerical simulations were carried out assuming several conditions. The direction of disposal tunnels and the ratio of rock strength by initial stress were estimated to be the main factor affecting the short-term stability of rock. Time dependency of rock and the stiffness of buffer material were estimated to be the main factor affecting the long-term stability of rock. (author)

Rape-related symptoms in adolescents: short- and long-term outcome after cognitive behavior group therapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iva Bicanic

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Efficacy studies on treatment in adolescent victims of single rape are lacking, even though sexual victimization is most likely to occur during adolescence and despite the fact that adolescents are at risk to develop subsequent posttraumatic stress disorder. Aim: The aim of this prospective observational study was to evaluate the short- and long-term outcomes of a nine-session cognitive behavior group therapy (STEPS, including a parallel six-session parents’ group on rape-related symptomatology in female adolescents (13–18 years. STEPS includes psychoeducation, exposure in sensu as well as in vivo, cognitive restructuring, and relapse prevention. Methods: Fifty-five female adolescents with mental health problems due to single rape, but without prior sexual trauma, received STEPS while their parents participated in a support group. Subjects were assessed on posttraumatic stress (PTS and comorbid symptoms using self-report questionnaires prior to and directly after treatment, and at 6 and 12 months follow-up. Results: Repeated measures analysis showed a significant and large decrease in symptoms of PTS, anxiety, depression, anger, dissociation, sexual concerns, and behavior problems directly after treatment, which maintained at 12 months follow-up. Time since trauma did not influence the results. Dropout during STEPS was 1.8%. Conclusions: The results potentially suggest that the positive treatment outcomes at short- and long-term may be caused by STEPS. The encouraging findings need confirmation in future controlled studies on the effectiveness of STEPS because it may be possible that the treatment works especially well for more chronic symptoms, while the less chronic part of the sample showed considerable improvement on its own.

Revisiting hydraulic hysteresis based on long-term monitoring of hydraulic states in lysimeters

Science.gov (United States)

Hannes, M.; Wollschläger, U.; Wöhling, T.; Vogel, H.-J.

2016-05-01

Hysteretic processes have been recognized for decades as an important characteristic of soil hydraulic behavior. Several studies confirmed that wetting and drying periods cannot be described by a simple functional relationship, and that some nonequilibrium of the water retention characteristics has to be taken into account. A large number of models describing the hysteresis of the soil water retention characteristic were successfully tested on soil cores under controlled laboratory conditions. However, its relevance under field conditions under natural forcings has rarely been investigated. In practice, the modeling of field soils usually neglects the hysteretic nature of soil hydraulic properties. In this study, long-term observations of water content and matric potential in lysimeters of the lysimeter network TERENO-SoilCan are presented, clearly demonstrating the hysteretic behavior of field soils. We propose a classification into three categories related to different time scales. Based on synthetic and long-term monitoring data, three different models of hysteresis were applied to data sets showing different degrees of hysteresis. We found no single model to be superior to the others. The model ranking depended on the degree of hysteresis. All models were able to reflect the general structure of hysteresis in most cases but failed to reproduce the detailed trajectories of state variables especially under highly transient conditions. As an important result we found that the temporal dynamics of wetting and drying significantly affects these trajectories which should be accounted for in future model concepts.

Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

2018-01-01

LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korinko M.D.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

Long-Term Visual Training Increases Visual Acuity and Long-Term Monocular Deprivation Promotes Ocular Dominance Plasticity in Adult Standard Cage-Raised Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosang, Leon; Yusifov, Rashad; Löwel, Siegrid

2018-01-01

For routine behavioral tasks, mice predominantly rely on olfactory cues and tactile information. In contrast, their visual capabilities appear rather restricted, raising the question whether they can improve if vision gets more behaviorally relevant. We therefore performed long-term training using the visual water task (VWT): adult standard cage (SC)-raised mice were trained to swim toward a rewarded grating stimulus so that using visual information avoided excessive swimming toward nonrewarded stimuli. Indeed, and in contrast to old mice raised in a generally enriched environment (Greifzu et al., 2016), long-term VWT training increased visual acuity (VA) on average by more than 30% to 0.82 cycles per degree (cyc/deg). In an individual animal, VA even increased to 1.49 cyc/deg, i.e., beyond the rat range of VAs. Since visual experience enhances the spatial frequency threshold of the optomotor (OPT) reflex of the open eye after monocular deprivation (MD), we also quantified monocular vision after VWT training. Monocular VA did not increase reliably, and eye reopening did not initiate a decline to pre-MD values as observed by optomotry; VA values rather increased by continued VWT training. Thus, optomotry and VWT measure different parameters of mouse spatial vision. Finally, we tested whether long-term MD induced ocular dominance (OD) plasticity in the visual cortex of adult [postnatal day (P)162-P182] SC-raised mice. This was indeed the case: 40-50 days of MD induced OD shifts toward the open eye in both VWT-trained and, surprisingly, also in age-matched mice without VWT training. These data indicate that (1) long-term VWT training increases adult mouse VA, and (2) long-term MD induces OD shifts also in adult SC-raised mice.

Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ardakani, F.J.; Ardehali, M.M.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Novel effects of DSM data on electricity consumption forecasting is examined. • Optimal ANN models based on IPSO and SFL algorithms are developed. • Addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36%. - Abstract: Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 2010–2030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 1967–2009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9 TW h) in EEC for 2010–2030

Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

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Paul Smolen

Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

Long-term in vivo imaging of multiple organs at the single cell level.

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Benny J Chen

Full Text Available Two-photon microscopy has enabled the study of individual cell behavior in live animals. Many organs and tissues cannot be studied, especially longitudinally, because they are located too deep, behind bony structures or too close to the lung and heart. Here we report a novel mouse model that allows long-term single cell imaging of many organs. A wide variety of live tissues were successfully engrafted in the pinna of the mouse ear. Many of these engrafted tissues maintained the normal tissue histology. Using the heart and thymus as models, we further demonstrated that the engrafted tissues functioned as would be expected. Combining two-photon microscopy with fluorescent tracers, we successfully visualized the engrafted tissues at the single cell level in live mice over several months. Four dimensional (three-dimensional (3D plus time information of individual cells was obtained from this imaging. This model makes long-term high resolution 4D imaging of multiple organs possible.

Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies; Modeliser le long terme dans un monde de second rang: application aux politiques climatiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crassous, R

2008-11-15

This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks.

Corrosion of Spent Nuclear Fuel: The Long-Term Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ewing, Rodney C.

2003-01-01

This research program is a broadly based effort to understand the long-term behavior of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and its alteration products in a geologic repository. We have established by experiments and field studies that natural uraninite, UO2+x, and its alteration products are excellent ''natural analogues'' for the study of the corrosion of UO2 in SNF. This on-going research program has addressed the following major issues: (1) What are the long-term corrosion products of natural UO2+x, uraninite, under oxidizing and reducing conditions? (2) What is the paragenesis or the reaction path for the phases that form during alteration? (3) What is the radionuclide content in the corrosion products as compared with the original UO2+x? Do the trace element contents substantiate models developed to predict radionuclide incorporation into the secondary phases? Are the corrosion products accurately predicted from geochemical codes (e.g., EQ3/6 or Geochemist's Workbench) that are used in performance assessments? Can these codes be tested by studies of natural analogue sites (e.g., Oklo, Cigar Lake or Pena Blanca)

Long-Term Planning in Restructured Power Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun

2003-01-01

This thesis describes the development of three decision support models for long-term investment planning in restructured power systems. The model concepts address the changing conditions for the electric power industry, with the introduction of more competitive markets, higher uncertainty and less centralised planning. Under these circumstances there is an emerging need for new planning models, also for analyses of the power system in a long-term perspective. The thesis focuses particularly on how dynamic and stochastic modelling can contribute to the improvement of decision making in a restructured power industry. We argue that the use of such modelling approaches has become more important after the introduction of competitive power markets, due to the participants' increased exposure to price fluctuations and economic risk. Our models can be applied by individual participants in the power system to evaluate investment projects for new power generation capacity. The models can also serve as a decision support tool on a regulatory level, providing analyses of the long-term performance of the power system under different regulations and market designs. In Chapter 1, we give a brief introduction to the ongoing development towards restructuring and liberalisation of the electrical power system. A discussion of the operation and organisation of restructured power systems is also provided. In Chapter 2, we look more specifically at different modelling approaches for expansion planning in electrical power systems. We also discuss how the contributions in this thesis compare to previous work in the field of decision support models for long-term planning in both regulated and competitive power systems. In Chapter 3, we develop a power market simulation model based on system dynamics. The advantages and limitations of using descriptive system dynamics models for long-term planning purposes in this context are also discussed. Chapter 4 is devoted to a novel optimisation

Preventive Intervention for Preschoolers at High Risk for Antisocial Behavior: Long-Term Effects on Child Physical Aggression and Parenting Practices

Science.gov (United States)

Brotman, Laurie Miller; Gouley, Kathleen Kiely; Huang, Keng-Yen; Rosenfelt, Amanda; O'Neal, Colleen; Klein, Rachel G.; Shrout, Patrick

2008-01-01

This article presents long-term effects of a preventive intervention for young children at high risk for antisocial behavior. Ninety-two children (M age = 4 years) were randomly assigned to an 8-month family intervention or no-intervention control condition and assessed 4 times over a 24-month period. Intent-to-treat analyses revealed significant…

Long-Term Changes in Pain Sensitivity in an Animal Model of Social Anxiety

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandra Berry

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Animal models with an eco-ethological relevance can help in identifying novel and reliable stress-related markers. To this end, 3-month-old C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to social defeat (SD stress for 10 days as this stressor shows good face and predictive validity for several models of human affective disorders including depression, social phobia and post-traumatic stress disorder. Social avoidance and pain threshold were assessed 24 h and 4 weeks after the end of SD stress, while corticosterone was assayed at the beginning and at the end of the stressful procedure (days 1 and 10. SD subjects were characterized by increased corticosterone levels (30 min following stress exposure, increased latency to approach the social target in the short-term as well as increased emotionality in the long-term. Moreover, an increase in nociceptive threshold (stress-induced analgesia was found both in the short-term and 4 weeks after the end of stress. These data indicate that the SD paradigm is able to induce emotional changes associated with a stressful/traumatic event. In addition, they indicate that variations in the nociceptive threshold might represent a physiological marker of both short- and long-term effects of stress.

A Reaction-Diffusion Model for Synapse Growth and Long-Term Memory

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Kang; Lisman, John; Hagan, Michael

Memory storage involves strengthening of synaptic transmission known as long-term potentiation (LTP). The late phase of LTP is associated with structural processes that enlarge the synapse. Yet, synapses must be stable, despite continual subunit turnover, over the lifetime of an encoded memory. These considerations suggest that synapses are variable-size stable structure (VSSS), meaning they can switch between multiple metastable structures with different sizes. The mechanisms underlying VSSS are poorly understood. While experiments and theory have suggested that the interplay between diffusion and receptor-scaffold interactions can lead to a preferred stable size for synaptic domains, such a mechanism cannot explain how synapses adopt widely different sizes. Here we develop a minimal reaction-diffusion model of VSSS for synapse growth, incorporating the recent observation from super-resolution microscopy that neural activity can build compositional heterogeneities within synaptic domains. We find that introducing such heterogeneities can change the stable domain size in a controlled manner. We discuss a potential connection between this model and experimental data on synapse sizes, and how it provides a possible mechanism to structurally encode graded long-term memory. We acknowledge the support from NSF INSPIRE Award number IOS-1526941 (KL, MFH, JL) and the Brandeis Center for Bioinspired Soft Materials, an NSF MRSEC, DMR- 1420382 (MFH).

Long term beneficial effect of neurotrophic factors-secreting mesenchymal stem cells transplantation in the BTBR mouse model of autism.

Science.gov (United States)

Perets, Nisim; Segal-Gavish, Hadar; Gothelf, Yael; Barzilay, Ran; Barhum, Yael; Abramov, Natalie; Hertz, Stav; Morozov, Darya; London, Michael; Offen, Daniel

2017-07-28

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are neurodevelopmental disabilities characterized by severe impairment in social communication skills and restricted, repetitive behaviors. We have previously shown that a single transplantation of mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) into the cerebral lateral ventricles of BTBR autistic-like mice resulted in an improvement across all diagnostic criteria of ASD. We suggested that brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a protein which supports the survival and regeneration of neurons secreted by MSC, largely contributed to the beneficial behavioral effect. In this study, we investigated the behavioral effects of transplanted MSC induced to secrete higher amounts of neurotrophic factors (NurOwn ® ), on various ASD-related behavioral domains using the BTBR mouse model of ASD. We demonstrate that NurOwn ® transplantation had significant advantages over MSC transplantation in terms of improving communication skills, one and six months following treatment, as compared to sham-treated BTBR mice. Furthermore, NurOwn ® transplantation resulted in reduced stereotypic behavior for as long as six months post treatment, compared to the one month improvement observed in the MSC treated mice. Notably, NurOwn ® treatment resulted in improved cognitive flexibility, an improvement that was not observed by MSC treatment. Both MSC and NurOwn ® transplantation induced an improvement in social behavior that lasted for six months. In conclusion, the present study demonstrates that a single transplantation of MSC or NurOwn ® have long-lasting benefits, while NurOwn ® may be superior to MSC treatment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

How long-term dynamics of sediment subduction controls short-term dynamics of seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Brizzi, S.; van Zelst, I.; van Dinther, Y.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.

2017-12-01

Most of the world's greatest earthquakes occur along the subduction megathrust. Weak and porous sediments have been suggested to homogenize the plate interface and thereby promote lateral rupture propagation and great earthquakes. However, the importance of sediment thickness, let alone their physical role, is not yet unequivocally established. Based on a multivariate statistical analysis of a global database of 62 subduction segments, we confirm that sediment thickness is one of the key parameters controlling the maximum magnitude a megathrust can generate. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations highlighted that the occurrence of great earthquakes on sediment-rich subduction segments is very unlikely (p-value≪0.05) related to pure chance. To understand how sediments in the subduction channel regulate earthquake size, this study extends and demystifies multivariate, spatiotemporally limited data through numerical modeling. We use the 2D Seismo-Thermo-Mechanical modeling approach to simulate both the long- and short-term dynamics of subduction and related seismogenesis (van Dinther et al., JGR, 2013). These models solve for the conservation of mass, momentum and energy using a visco-elasto-plastic rheology with rate-dependent friction. Results show that subducted sediments have a strong influence on the long-term evolution of the convergent margin. Increasing the sediment thickness on the incoming plate from 0 to 6 km causes a decrease of slab dip from 23° to 10°. This, in addition to increased radiogenic heating, extends isotherms, thereby widening the seismogenic portion of the megathrust from 80 to 150 km. Consequently, over tens of thousands of years, we observe that the maximum moment magnitude of megathrust earthquakes increases from 8.2 to 9.2 for these shallower and warmer interfaces. In addition, we observe more and larger splay faults, which could enhance vertical seafloor displacements. These results highlight the primary role of subducted sediments in

Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mansson, K.N.T.; Frick, A.; Boraxbekk, C.J.; Marquand, A.F.; Williams, S.C.; Carlbring, P.; Andersson, G.; Furmark, T.

2015-01-01

Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge.

Expanding the Andersen model: the role of psychosocial factors in long-term care use.

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, Elizabeth H; McGraw, Sarah A; Curry, Leslie; Buckser, Alison; King, Kinda L; Kasl, Stanislav V; Andersen, Ronald

2002-10-01

To examine a prevailing conceptual model of health services use (Andersen 1995) and to suggest modifications that may enhance its explanatory power when applied to empirical studies of race/ethnicity and long-term care. Twelve focus groups of African-American (five groups) and white (seven groups) individuals, aged 65 and older, residing in Connecticut during 2000. Using qualitative analysis, data were coded and analyzed in NUD-IST 4 software to facilitate the reporting of recurrent themes, supporting quotations, and links among the themes for developing the conceptual framework. Specific analysis was conducted to assess distinctions in common themes between African-American and white focus groups. Data were collected using a standardized discussion guide, augmented by prompts for clarification. Audio taped sessions were transcribed and independently coded by investigators and crosschecked to enhance coding validity. An audit trail was maintained to document analytic decisions during data analysis and interpretation. Psychosocial factors (e.g., attitudes and knowledge, social norms, and perceived control) are identified as determinants of service use, thereby expanding the Andersen model (1995). African-American and white focus group members differed in their reported accessibility of information about long-term care, social norms concerning caregiving expectations and burden, and concerns of privacy and self-determination. More comprehensive identification of psychosocial factors may enhance our understanding of the complex role of race/ethnicity in long-term care use as well as the effectiveness of policies and programs designed to address disparities in long-term care service use among minority and nonminority groups.

Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon Jin Park

2010-04-01

Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

The Future Demand for Long-term Carers in Germany: Model Calculations for the Federal Länder until 2020

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carsten Pohl

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The increase in the birth rate shortfall, at the same time as an increase in life expectancy, will lead to more elderly people living in Germany in future, in both relative and absolute terms. The possible development in the demand for professional long-term carers until 2020 for the individual Federal Länder is illustrated in this essay using model calculations. Because of the differences in demographic change between the Federal Länder, the labour market for long-term care will develop heterogeneously in the federal territory as a whole. The increase in the number of persons in need of long-term care from its current level of 2.25 million to a forecast level of 2.9 million by 2020 will mean that professional long-term care in particular will continue to become more significant in Germany as a whole. The demand for long-term carers (in full-time equivalent posts could increase from its current level of 561,000 to up to 900,000 by 2020. The actual development on the professional labour market will however be heavily dependent on the commitment of care-giving relatives. Additionally, possible productivity advances in the provision of long-term care services will play a role, as can be shown in various scenarios of the model calculations.

Long-term lumen depreciation behavior and failure modes of multi-die array LEDs

Science.gov (United States)

Jayawardena, Asiri; Marcus, Daniel; Prugue, Ximena; Narendran, Nadarajah

2013-09-01

One of the main advantages of multi-die array light-emitting diodes (LEDs) is their high flux density. However, a challenge for using such a product in lighting fixture applications is the heat density and the need for thermal management to keep the junction temperatures of all the dies low for long-term reliable performance. Ten multi-die LED array samples for each product from four different manufacturers were subjected to lumen maintenance testing (as described in IES-LM-80-08), and their resulting lumen depreciation and failure modes were studied. The products were tested at the maximum case (or pin) temperature reported by the respective manufacturer by appropriately powering the LEDs. In addition, three samples for each product from two different manufacturers were subjected to rapid thermal cycling, and the resulting lumen depreciation and failure modes were studied. The results showed that the exponential lumen decay model using long-term lumen maintenance data as recommended in IES TM-21 does not fit for all package types. The failure of a string of dies and single die failure in a string were observed in some of the packages.

Folk music style modelling by recurrent neural networks with long short term memory units

OpenAIRE

Sturm, Bob; Santos, João Felipe; Korshunova, Iryna

2015-01-01

We demonstrate two generative models created by training a recurrent neural network (RNN) with three hidden layers of long short-term memory (LSTM) units. This extends past work in numerous directions, including training deeper models with nearly 24,000 high-level transcriptions of folk tunes. We discuss our on-going work.

A New Approach to the Long-Term Activity Behavior of DM UMa

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Taş G.

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A long-term activity character of DM UMa (K0-1 IV-III, which is one of the most active members of the RS CVn type variables, is examined using the multicolor photometric observations which spread to the time interval between 1980 and 2009. In this work, we present a new approximation for the long-term light and color variation of DM UMa using data obtained by combining our own observations obtained in the Johnson broad-band U,B,V,R filters between the years 1997 and 2008 and data published in literature. Available light and color data were examined for the long-term and seasonal variations using PERIOD04 program. The period analysis of the V-band data reveals the period estimations of 51.2±2.8 years and 15.1±0.7 years superposed on it. The U-B, B-V and V-R colors do not show correlation with the longer period, but they show variations with a period similar to the shorter one, except for B-V color. The amplitude variation also does not exhibit any correlation with the V light and color curves. It is found that the movement of the spot minima phases in years also indicates the migration period of nearly 15 years, similar to the period derived from the analysis of the long-term photometric observations in V-band.

Dissolution rates of DWPF glasses from long-term PCT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebert, W.L.; Tam, S.W.

1996-01-01

We have characterized the corrosion behavior of several Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) reference waste glasses by conducting static dissolution tests with crushed glasses. Glass dissolution rates were calculated from measured B concentrations in tests conducted for up to five years. The dissolution rates of all glasses increased significantly after certain alteration phases precipitated. Calculation of the dissolution rates was complicated by the decrease in the available surface area as the glass dissolves. We took the loss of surface area into account by modeling the particles to be spheres, then extracting from the short-term test results the dissolution rate corresponding to a linear decrease in the radius of spherical particles. The measured extent of dissolution in tests conducted for longer times was less than predicted with this linear dissolution model. This indicates that advanced stages of corrosion are affected by another process besides dissolution, which we believe to be associated with a decrease in the precipitation rate of the alteration phases. These results show that the dissolution rate measured soon after the formation of certain alteration phases provides an upper limit for the long-term dissolution rate, and can be used to determine a bounding value for the source term for radionuclide release from waste glasses. The long-term dissolution rates measured in tests at 20,000 per m at 90 degrees C in tuff groundwater at pH values near 12 for the Environmental Assessment glass and glasses made with SRL 131 and SRL 202 frits, respectively

Addressing homelessness among people with mental illnesses: a model of long-term philanthropic effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Brousseau, Ruth Tebbets

2009-01-01

Foundations are often criticized for their short attention spans and inability to continue funding the toughest social problems. Homelessness among people with mental illnesses is considered among the most intractable of social issues. This paper explores the role of permanent supportive housing in reducing homelessness among the mentally ill; the role of the Corporation for Supportive Housing in developing, authenticating, and disseminating its model; and its long-term funding relationship with the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation, which has facilitated this trajectory. The paper tells the story of how long-term funding, strategically used, is making inroads into this serious mental health problem.

Results from the long-term interaction and modeling of SRL-131 glass with aqueous solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, D.M.; Pederson, L.R.; Lokken, R.O.

1985-11-01

Leaching studies of SRL-131 simulated defense nuclear waste glass have been carried out to two years duration, in leachants that simulate groundwaters of different ionic strengths. The leachability of SRL-131 glass followed the trend: deionized water > silicate water > salt brine = simulated groundwater at 40 0 C and deionized water = simulated groundwater > silicate water > salt brine at 90 0 C. The results are in general agreement with calculations using the PHREEQE geochemical code and indicate a sometimes complex sequence temperature dependent of mineral precipitation and redissolution. The calculations done in this study have illustrated the complexity of the precipitation sequence of mineral phases as a function of reaction progress. Complex, temperature dependent, precipitation/dissolution sequences have also been observed in experiments using natural materials, such as sea water and basaltic glass. The results of this two-year study point to the need for further work in establishing the thermodynamics of the observed phases and the relationship of these phases to the thermodynamically favored suite of phases for any given waste form/host rock/groundwater system. In order to study these phases, very long-term experiments may be necessary so that the phases grow to sizes which can be studied. In addition, geochemical codes should be used to better understand the experiments, to design leach test matrices, and to help predict the long-term results of experiments. The combination of long-term experiments and geochemical codes should lead to an improved method for forecasting the long-term behavior of a nuclear waste repository. 15 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs

Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Månsson, K N T; Frick, A; Boraxbekk, C-J; Marquand, A F; Williams, S C R; Carlbring, P; Andersson, G; Furmark, T

2015-03-17

Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge. This study aimed at assessing neural predictors of long-term treatment outcome in participants with SAD 1 year after completion of Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT). Twenty-six participants diagnosed with SAD underwent iCBT including attention bias modification for a total of 13 weeks. Support vector machines (SVMs), a supervised pattern recognition method allowing predictions at the individual level, were trained to separate long-term treatment responders from nonresponders based on blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses to self-referential criticism. The Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale was the main instrument to determine treatment response at the 1-year follow-up. Results showed that the proportion of long-term responders was 52% (12/23). From multivariate BOLD responses in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) together with the amygdala, we were able to predict long-term response rate of iCBT with an accuracy of 92% (confidence interval 95% 73.2-97.6). This activation pattern was, however, not predictive of improvement in the continuous Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-report version. Follow-up psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed that lower dACC-amygdala coupling was associated with better long-term treatment response. Thus, BOLD response patterns in the fear-expressing dACC-amygdala regions were highly predictive of long-term treatment outcome of iCBT, and the initial coupling between these regions differentiated long-term responders from nonresponders. The SVM-neuroimaging approach could be of particular clinical value as it allows for accurate prediction of treatment outcome at the level of the individual.

Implicit attitudes towards smoking predict long-term relapse in abstinent smokers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spruyt, A.; Lemaigre, V.; Salhi, B.; van Gucht, D.; Tibboel, H.; van Bockstaele, B.; de Houwer, J.; van Meerbeeck, J.; Nackaerts, K.

2015-01-01

Rationale: It has previously been argued that implicit attitudes toward substance-related cues drive addictive behavior. Nevertheless, it remains an open question whether behavioral markers of implicit attitude activation can be used to predict long-term relapse. Objectives: The main objective of

Parameter values for the long-term nuclear waste management food chain model LIMCAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zach, Reto.

1982-09-01

Eighteen parameters of LIMCAL, a comprehensive food chain model for predicting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents to man due to long-term nuclear waste management are reviewed. The parameters are: soil bulk density, plowlayer depth, soil surface layer depth, resusupension factor, atmospheric dust load, deposition velocity, plant interception fraction, plant environmental half-time, translocation factor, time of above-ground exposure, plant yield, holdup time, animals' feed consumption rate, animals' water consumption rate, man's water consumption rate, food type calorie conversion factors, man's total caloric intake rate and food type calorie fractions. LIMCAL has both traditional and unique parameters. The former occur in most of the currently used assessment models for nuclear installations, whereas the latter do not. For each of the parameters of LIMCAL, a suitable generic value for long-term nuclear waste management was determined. Thus, the general literature and the values currently used or recommended by various agencies were reviewed

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

Hanford grout: predicting long-term performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sewart, G.H.; Mitchell, D.H.; Treat, R.L.; McMakin, A.H.

1987-01-01

Grouted disposal is being planned for the low-level portion of liquid radioactive wastes at the Hanford site in Washington state. The performance of the disposal system must be such that it will protect people and the environment for thousands of years after disposal. To predict whether a specific grout disposal system will comply with existing and foreseen regulations, a performance assessment (PA) is performed. Long-term PAs are conducted for a range of performance conditions. Performance assessment is an inexact science. Quantifying projected impacts is especially difficult when only scant data exist on the behavior of certain components of the disposal system over thousands of years. To develop defensible results, we are honing the models and obtaining experimental data. The combination of engineered features and PA refinements is being used to ensure that Hanford grout will meet its principal goal: to protect people and the environment in the future

Modeling long-term human activeness using recurrent neural networks for biometric data.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Zae Myung; Oh, Hyungrai; Kim, Han-Gyu; Lim, Chae-Gyun; Oh, Kyo-Joong; Choi, Ho-Jin

2017-05-18

With the invention of fitness trackers, it has been possible to continuously monitor a user's biometric data such as heart rates, number of footsteps taken, and amount of calories burned. This paper names the time series of these three types of biometric data, the user's "activeness", and investigates the feasibility in modeling and predicting the long-term activeness of the user. The dataset used in this study consisted of several months of biometric time-series data gathered by seven users independently. Four recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures-as well as a deep neural network and a simple regression model-were proposed to investigate the performance on predicting the activeness of the user under various length-related hyper-parameter settings. In addition, the learned model was tested to predict the time period when the user's activeness falls below a certain threshold. A preliminary experimental result shows that each type of activeness data exhibited a short-term autocorrelation; and among the three types of data, the consumed calories and the number of footsteps were positively correlated, while the heart rate data showed almost no correlation with neither of them. It is probably due to this characteristic of the dataset that although the RNN models produced the best results on modeling the user's activeness, the difference was marginal; and other baseline models, especially the linear regression model, performed quite admirably as well. Further experimental results show that it is feasible to predict a user's future activeness with precision, for example, a trained RNN model could predict-with the precision of 84%-when the user would be less active within the next hour given the latest 15 min of his activeness data. This paper defines and investigates the notion of a user's "activeness", and shows that forecasting the long-term activeness of the user is indeed possible. Such information can be utilized by a health-related application to proactively

Long-Term Visual Training Increases Visual Acuity and Long-Term Monocular Deprivation Promotes Ocular Dominance Plasticity in Adult Standard Cage-Raised Mice

OpenAIRE

Hosang, Leon; Yusifov, Rashad; Löwel, Siegrid

2018-01-01

Abstract For routine behavioral tasks, mice predominantly rely on olfactory cues and tactile information. In contrast, their visual capabilities appear rather restricted, raising the question whether they can improve if vision gets more behaviorally relevant. We therefore performed long-term training using the visual water task (VWT): adult standard cage (SC)-raised mice were trained to swim toward a rewarded grating stimulus so that using visual information avoided excessive swimming toward ...

Residual Fatigue Properties of Asphalt Pavement after Long-Term Field Service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peide Cui

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Asphalt pavement is widely used for expressways due to its advantages of flexibility, low cost, and easy maintenance. However, pavement failures, including cracking, raveling, and potholes, will appear after long-term service. This research evaluated the residual fatigue properties of asphalt pavement after long-term field service. Fatigue behavior of specimens with different pavement failure types, traffic load, service time, and layers were collected and characterized. Results indicate that after long-term field service, surface layer has a longer fatigue life under small stress levels, but shorter fatigue life under large stress levels. Longer service time results in greater sensitivity to loading stress, while heavier traffic results in shorter fatigue life. Surface and underneath layers present very close fatigue trend lines in some areas, indicating that the fatigue behavior of asphalt mixture in surface and underneath layers are aged to the same extent after eight to ten years of field service.

An exemplar-familiarity model predicts short-term and long-term probe recognition across diverse forms of memory search.

Science.gov (United States)

Nosofsky, Robert M; Cox, Gregory E; Cao, Rui; Shiffrin, Richard M

2014-11-01

Experiments were conducted to test a modern exemplar-familiarity model on its ability to account for both short-term and long-term probe recognition within the same memory-search paradigm. Also, making connections to the literature on attention and visual search, the model was used to interpret differences in probe-recognition performance across diverse conditions that manipulated relations between targets and foils across trials. Subjects saw lists of from 1 to 16 items followed by a single item recognition probe. In a varied-mapping condition, targets and foils could switch roles across trials; in a consistent-mapping condition, targets and foils never switched roles; and in an all-new condition, on each trial a completely new set of items formed the memory set. In the varied-mapping and all-new conditions, mean correct response times (RTs) and error proportions were curvilinear increasing functions of memory set size, with the RT results closely resembling ones from hybrid visual-memory search experiments reported by Wolfe (2012). In the consistent-mapping condition, new-probe RTs were invariant with set size, whereas old-probe RTs increased slightly with increasing study-test lag. With appropriate choice of psychologically interpretable free parameters, the model accounted well for the complete set of results. The work provides support for the hypothesis that a common set of processes involving exemplar-based familiarity may govern long-term and short-term probe recognition across wide varieties of memory- search conditions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Depletion of Serotonin Selectively Impairs Short-Term Memory without Affecting Long-Term Memory in Odor Learning in the Terrestrial Slug "Limax Valentianus"

Science.gov (United States)

Santa, Tomofumi; Kirino, Yutaka; Watanabe, Satoshi; Shirahata, Takaaki; Tsunoda, Makoto

2006-01-01

The terrestrial slug "Limax" is able to acquire short-term and long-term memories during aversive odor-taste associative learning. We investigated the effect of the selective serotonergic neurotoxin 5,7-dihydroxytryptamine (5,7-DHT) on memory. Behavioral studies indicated that 5,7-DHT impaired short-term memory but not long-term memory. HPLC…

Creating a Long-Term Diabetic Rabbit Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianpu Wang

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This study was to create a long-term rabbit model of diabetes mellitus for medical studies of up to one year or longer and to evaluate the effects of chronic hyperglycemia on damage of major organs. A single dose of alloxan monohydrate (100 mg/kg was given intravenously to 20 young New Zealand White rabbits. Another 12 age-matched normal rabbits were used as controls. Hyperglycemia developed within 48 hours after treatment with alloxan. Insulin was given daily after diabetes developed. All animals gained some body weight, but the gain was much less than the age-matched nondiabetic rabbits. Hyperlipidemia, higher blood urea nitrogen and creatinine were found in the diabetic animals. Histologically, the pancreas showed marked beta cell damage. The kidneys showed significantly thickened afferent glomerular arterioles with narrowed lumens along with glomerular atrophy. Lipid accumulation in the cytoplasm of hepatocytes appeared as vacuoles. Full-thickness skin wound healing was delayed. In summary, with careful management, alloxan-induced diabetic rabbits can be maintained for one year or longer in reasonably good health for diabetic studies.

Synaptic long-term potentiation realized in Pavlov's dog model based on a NiOx-based memristor

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, S. G.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Chen, T. P.; Yu, Q.; Deng, L. J.; Yin, Y.; Hosaka, Sumio

2014-12-01

Synaptic Long-Term Potentiation (LTP), which is a long-lasting enhancement in signal transmission between neurons, is widely considered as the major cellular mechanism during learning and memorization. In this work, a NiOx-based memristor is found to be able to emulate the synaptic LTP. Electrical conductance of the memristor is increased by electrical pulse stimulation and then spontaneously decays towards its initial state, which resembles the synaptic LTP. The lasting time of the LTP in the memristor can be estimated with the relaxation equation, which well describes the conductance decay behavior. The LTP effect of the memristor has a dependence on the stimulation parameters, including pulse height, width, interval, and number of pulses. An artificial network consisting of three neurons and two synapses is constructed to demonstrate the associative learning and LTP behavior in extinction of association in Pavlov's dog experiment.

Long-term reliability of the visual EEG Poffenberger paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, Patrick; Ocklenburg, Sebastian; Mochalski, Lisa; Schlüter, Caroline; Güntürkün, Onur; Genc, Erhan

2017-07-14

The Poffenberger paradigm is a simple perception task that is used to estimate the speed of information transfer between the two hemispheres, the so-called interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT). Although the original paradigm is a behavioral task, it can be combined with electroencephalography (EEG) to assess the underlying neurophysiological processes during task execution. While older studies have supported the validity of both paradigms for investigating interhemispheric interactions, their long-term reliability has not been assessed systematically before. The present study aims to fill this gap by determining both internal consistency and long-term test-retest reliability of IHTTs produced by using the two different versions of the Poffenberger paradigm in a sample of 26 healthy subjects. The results show high reliability for the EEG Poffenberger paradigm. In contrast, reliability measures for the behavioral Poffenberger paradigm were low. Hence, our results indicate that electrophysiological measures of interhemispheric transfer are more reliable than behavioral measures; the later should be used with caution in research investigating inter-individual differences of neurocognitive measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Effects of Neurofeedback Treatment in Autism

Science.gov (United States)

Kouijzer, Mirjam E. J.; de Moor, Jan M. H.; Gerrits, Berrie J. L.; Buitelaar, Jan K.; van Schie, Hein T.

2009-01-01

Previously we demonstrated significant improvement of executive functions and social behavior in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) treated with 40 sessions of EEG neurofeedback in a nonrandomized waiting list control group design. In this paper we extend these findings by reporting the long-term results of neurofeedback treatment in…

In-Plant Fission Product Behavior in SGTR Accident with Long-Term SBO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Tae Woon; Han, Seok Jung; Ahn, Kwang Il [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

The off-site AC power was recovered in 9 days after the accident in the NPS. Therefore safety injection by fire pump truck with fresh water or seawater is only available in the Fukushima accident. However, safety injection by fire pump truck is not always effective due to the high pressure of RPV inside or leakages of alternative water injection flow paths. In the SBO situations in pressurized water reactor plant (PWR), turbine driven auxiliary feedwater (TD-AFW) pump can inject water to the secondary side of steam generator. However, turbine inlet steam flow control valve cannot work properly when loss of vital DC power occurs. Vital DC power is designed to be maintained during 4 or 8 hours in the SBO conditions. In this paper motor-driven and turbine driven AFW pumps are all assumed to be not working at time 0 sec as a worst case assumption. Iodine pool-scrubbing can occur in the secondary side of the faulted steam generator. However, iodine pool-scrubbing in the secondary side of the faulted steam generator is assumed not to be working, due to the assumption of the loss of DC battery for turbine inlet flow control valve. Iodine pool-scrubbing is one of the long-term research issues in safety assessment of nuclear power plant severe accident. PHEBUS FPT series and THAI experiment projects are typical projects on the resolving source term issues in severe accident of nuclear power plants. However, iodine retention by pool scrubbing is still a debating issue. In such containment bypass sequences, fission products can be released out to environment directly from RCS without retention or deposition in containment structures. SGTR is one of the hazardous accident scenarios in the typical PSA, because SGTR induces a large release amount of source term to environment directly. A key operation strategy was the isolation of the broken reactor coolant system loop from the intact loop. Typical core degradation in SGTR scenarios occurs with multiple failures of the isolation

Informing the Long-Term Learner Model: Motivating the Adult Learner (Phase 1)

Science.gov (United States)

2017-09-28

memory systems: 1) short - term memory , 2) working memory , and 3) long - term memory . The short - term memory stores the information for brief periods of...and the episodic buffer, which is linked to long - term memory . The visual working memory shares parts and interacts with attention (Gazzaley and...Nobre 2012; Zanto et al. 2011). Short - term memory is limited in its importance to

Tritium: a model for low level long-term ionizing radiation exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carsten, A.L.

1984-01-01

The somatic, cytogenetic and genetic effects of single and chronic tritiated water (HTO) ingestion in mice was investigated. This study serves not only as an evaluation of tritium toxicity (TRITOX) but due to its design involving long-term low concentration ingestion of HTO may serve as a model for low level long-term ionizing radiation exposure in general. Long-term studies involved animals maintained on HTO at concentrations of 0.3 μCi/ml, 1.0 μCi/ml, 3.0 μCi/ml or depth dose equivalent chronic external exposures to 137 Cs gamma rays. Maintenance on 3.0 μCi/ml resulted in no effect on growth, life-time shortening or bone marrow cellularity, but did result in a reduction of bone marrow stem cells, an increase in DLM's in second generation animals maintained on this regimen and cytogenetic effects as indicated by increased sister chromatid exchanges (SCE's) in bone marrow cells, increased chromosome aberrations in the regenerating liver and an increase in micronuclei in red blood cells. Biochemical and microdosimetry studies showed that animals placed on the HTO regimen reached tritium equilibrium in the body water in approximately 17 to 21 days with a more gradual increase in bound tritium. When animals maintained for 180 days on 3.0 μCi/ml HTO were placed on a tap water regimen, the tritium level in tissue dropped from the equilibrium value of 2.02 μCi/ml before withdrawal to 0.001 μCi/ml at 28 days. 18 references

On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernard Wong

2009-01-01

martingale component is based on an ergodic diffusion with a specified stationary distribution. These models are particularly useful for long horizon asset-liability management as they allow the modelling of long term stock returns with heavy tail ergodic diffusions, with tractable, time homogeneous dynamics, and which moreover admit a complete financial market, leading to unique pricing and hedging strategies. Unfortunately the standard specifications of these models in literature admit arbitrage opportunities. We investigate in detail the features of the existing model specifications which create these arbitrage opportunities and consequently construct a modification that is arbitrage free.

Long-term athletic development- part 1: a pathway for all youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, Rhodri S; Oliver, Jon L; Faigenbaum, Avery D; Howard, Rick; De Ste Croix, Mark B A; Williams, Craig A; Best, Thomas M; Alvar, Brent A; Micheli, Lyle J; Thomas, D Phillip; Hatfield, Disa L; Cronin, John B; Myer, Gregory D

2015-05-01

The concept of developing talent and athleticism in youth is the goal of many coaches and sports systems. Consequently, an increasing number of sporting organizations have adopted long-term athletic development models in an attempt to provide a structured approach to the training of youth. It is clear that maximizing sporting talent is an important goal of long-term athletic development models. However, ensuring that youth of all ages and abilities are provided with a strategic plan for the development of their health and physical fitness is also important to maximize physical activity participation rates, reduce the risk of sport- and activity-related injury, and to ensure long-term health and well-being. Critical reviews of independent models of long-term athletic development are already present within the literature; however, to the best of our knowledge, a comprehensive examination and review of the most prominent models does not exist. Additionally, considerations of modern day issues that may impact on the success of any long-term athletic development model are lacking, as are proposed solutions to address such issues. Therefore, within this 2-part commentary, Part 1 provides a critical review of existing models of practice for long-term athletic development and introduces a composite youth development model that includes the integration of talent, psychosocial and physical development across maturation. Part 2 identifies limiting factors that may restrict the success of such models and offers potential solutions.

Uncertainty Assessment in Long Term Urban Drainage Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren

the probability of system failures (defined as either flooding or surcharge of manholes or combined sewer overflow); (2) an application of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology in which an event based stochastic calibration is performed; and (3) long term Monte Carlo simulations...

Evidence from a rare case-study for Hebbian-like changes in structural connectivity induced by long-term deep brain stimulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim J Van Hartevelt

2015-06-01

Full Text Available It is unclear whether Hebbian-like learning occurs at the level of long-range white matter connections in humans, i.e. where measurable changes in structural connectivity are correlated with changes in functional connectivity. However, the behavioral changes observed after deep brain stimulation (DBS suggest the existence of such Hebbian-like mechanisms occurring at the structural level with functional consequences. In this rare case study, we obtained the full network of white matter connections of one patient with Parkinson's disease before and after long-term DBS and combined it with a computational model of ongoing activity to investigate the effects of DBS-induced long-term structural changes. The results show that the long-term effects of DBS on resting-state functional connectivity is best obtained in the computational model by changing the structural weights from the subthalamic nucleus to the putamen and the thalamus in a Hebbian-like manner. Moreover, long-term DBS also significantly changed the structural connectivity towards normality in terms of model-based measures of segregation and integration of information processing, two key concepts of brain organization. This novel approach using computational models to model the effects of Hebbian-like changes in structural connectivity allowed us to causally identify the possible underlying neural mechanisms of long-term DBS using rare case study data. In time, this could help predict the efficacy of individual DBS targeting and identify novel DBS targets.

Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1997-10-01

Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term mechanical behavior of buffer (II). Document prepared by other organization, based on the trust contract

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Takaji, Kazuhiko

2003-02-01

On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining each ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the various external forces will be affected to buffer intricately for a long period of time. So, to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer against the external force is important, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, reversal sets of parameters are chosen for the previously selected constitutive models, Sekiguchi-Ohta model and Adachi-Oka model and the element tests are simulated using these parameters. Through the simulation, applicability of the constitutive models and these parameters is examined. Using these parameters, sensitivity analysis of prototype EBS model is also done. Analysis is carried out with two cases. 1: Settlement of the over with no corrosion expansion. 2: Settlement of the over pack with corrosion expansion. The results of the analysis area as follows. Settlement by the weight is mainly affected by the viscous parameters. The whole destruction of the EBS does not occur with any set of applicable parameters. Viscous parameters are important to evaluate the effect of the over pack expansion on surrounding rocks. (author)

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

OpenAIRE

Laura Alfaro; Fabio Kanczuk

2007-01-01

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve fo...

Long term effects of low doses of 56Fe ions on the brain and retina of the mouse: ultrastructural and behavioral studies

Science.gov (United States)

Philpott, D. E.; Miquel, J.

1986-01-01

Eight month old male C57BL6 mice were exposed without anesthesia to whole-body irradiation in circular holders. The mice were tested for behavioral decrements after 0.5 and 50 rads of Fe particle irradiation at 6 and 12 months post irradiation to obtain long term results. A standard maze was used and the animals were timed for completion thereof. A string test also was administered to the mice, testing their ability to grasp and move along a string to safety. The results from animals exposed to 50 rads were significantly different from [correction of fron] control results to p = brain) and the retina were examined for ultrastructural changes. The ultrastructural changes were similar to those we found in our Cosmos 782, 936 and in our Argon experiments. The mouse data indicate that iron particles were able to induce long term changes in the central nervous system which lead to behavioral impairment.

Modeling context-sensitive, dynamic activity travel behavior by linking short-and long-term responses to accumulated stress

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Psarra, I.; Liao, F.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2014-01-01

As existing activity-based models of travel demand simulate activity travel patterns for a typical day, dynamic models simulate behavioral response to endogenous or exogenous change along various time horizons. Prior research predominantly addressed a specific kind of change, which usually affected

Prediction of long-term creep curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oikawa, Hiroshi; Maruyama, Kouichi

1992-01-01

This paper aims at discussing how to predict long-term irradiation enhanced creep properties from short-term tests. The predictive method based on the θ concept was examined by using creep data of ferritic steels. The method was successful in predicting creep curves including the tertiary creep stage as well as rupture lifetimes. Some material constants involved in the method are insensitive to the irradiation environment, and their values obtained in thermal creep are applicable to irradiation enhanced creep. The creep mechanisms of most engineering materials definitely change at the athermal yield stress in the non-creep regime. One should be aware that short-term tests must be carried out at stresses lower than the athermal yield stress in order to predict the creep behavior of structural components correctly. (orig.)

Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

Semantic and phonological contributions to short-term repetition and long-term cued sentence recall.

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzer, Jed A; Rose, Nathan S; Deschamps, Tiffany; Leigh, Rosie C; Panamsky, Lilia; Silberberg, Alexandra; Madani, Noushin; Links, Kira A

2016-02-01

The function of verbal short-term memory is supported not only by the phonological loop, but also by semantic resources that may operate on both short and long time scales. Elucidation of the neural underpinnings of these mechanisms requires effective behavioral manipulations that can selectively engage them. We developed a novel cued sentence recall paradigm to assess the effects of two factors on sentence recall accuracy at short-term and long-term stages. Participants initially repeated auditory sentences immediately following a 14-s retention period. After this task was complete, long-term memory for each sentence was probed by a two-word recall cue. The sentences were either concrete (high imageability) or abstract (low imageability), and the initial 14-s retention period was filled with either an undemanding finger-tapping task or a more engaging articulatory suppression task (Exp. 1, counting backward by threes; Exp. 2, repeating a four-syllable nonword). Recall was always better for the concrete sentences. Articulatory suppression reduced accuracy in short-term recall, especially for abstract sentences, but the sentences initially recalled following articulatory suppression were retained better at the subsequent cued-recall test, suggesting that the engagement of semantic mechanisms for short-term retention promoted encoding of the sentence meaning into long-term memory. These results provide a basis for using sentence imageability and subsequent memory performance as probes of semantic engagement in short-term memory for sentences.

Behavioral and histological outcomes following neonatal HI injury in a preterm (P3) and term (P7) rodent model.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, M; Garbus, H; Smith, A L; Rosenkrantz, T S; Fitch, R H

2014-02-01

Hypoxia-ischemia (HI) occurs when blood and/or oxygen delivery to the brain is compromised. HI injuries can occur in infants born prematurely (HI populations, brain injury is associated with subsequent behavioral deficits. Neonatal HI injury can be modeled in rodents (e.g., the Rice-Vannucci method, via cautery of right carotid followed by hypoxia). When this injury is induced early in life (between postnatal day (P)1-5), neuropathologies typical of human preterm HI are modeled. When injury is induced later (P7-12), neuropathologies typical of those seen in HI term infants are modeled. The current study sought to characterize the similarities/differences between outcomes following early (P3) and late (P7) HI injury in rats. Male rats with HI injury on P3 or P7, as well as sham controls, were tested on a variety of behavioral tasks in both juvenile and adult periods. Results showed that P7 HI rats displayed deficits on motor learning, rapid auditory processing (RAP), and other learning/memory tasks, as well as a reduction in volume in various neuroanatomical structures. P3 HI animals showed only transient deficits on RAP tasks in the juvenile period (but not in adulthood), yet robust deficits on a visual attention task in adulthood. P3 HI animals did not show any significant reductions in brain volume that we could detect. These data suggest that: (1) behavioral deficits following neonatal HI are task-specific depending on timing of injury; (2) P3 HI rats showed transient deficits on RAP tasks; (3) the more pervasive behavioral deficits seen following P7 HI injury were associated with substantial global tissue loss; and (4) persistent deficits in attention in P3 HI subjects might be linked to neural connectivity disturbances rather than a global loss of brain volume, given that no such pathology was found. These combined findings can be applied to our understanding of differing long-term outcomes following neonatal HI injury in premature versus term infants

Long-term modelling of nitrogen turnover and critical loads in a forested catchment using the INCA model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-J. Langusch

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Many forest ecosystems in Central Europe have reached the status of N saturation due to chronically high N deposition. In consequence, the NO3 leaching into ground- and surface waters is often substantial. Critical loads have been defined to abate the negative consequences of the NO3 leaching such as soil acidification and nutrient losses. The steady state mass balance method is normally used to calculate critical loads for N deposition in forest ecosystems. However, the steady state mass balance approach is limited because it does not take into account hydrology and the time until the steady state is reached. The aim of this study was to test the suitability of another approach: the dynamic model INCA (Integrated Nitrogen Model for European Catchments. Long-term effects of changing N deposition and critical loads for N were simulated using INCA for the Lehstenbach spruce catchment (Fichtelgebirge, NE Bavaria, Germany under different hydrological conditions. Long-term scenarios of either increasing or decreasing N deposition indicated that, in this catchment, the response of nitrate concentrations in runoff to changing N deposition is buffered by a large groundwater reservoir. The critical load simulated by the INCA model with respect to a nitrate concentration of 0.4 mg N l–1 as threshold value in runoff was 9.7 kg N ha–1yr–1 compared to 10 kg ha–1yr–1 for the steady state model. Under conditions of lower precipitation (520 mm the resulting critical load was 7.7 kg N ha–1yr–1 , suggesting the necessity to account for different hydrological conditions when calculating critical loads. The INCA model seems to be suitable to calculate critical loads for N in forested catchments under varying hydrological conditions e.g. as a consequence of climate change. Keywords: forest ecosystem, N saturation, critical load, modelling, long-term scenario, nitrate leaching, critical loads reduction, INCA

Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Maria Brändle

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development. Realigning the representation of human decision making with time scales of ecological processes such as reforestation presents a major challenge in this context. Models either focus on the agent-specific behavior anchored in the current generation of farmers at the expense of representing longer scale environmental processes or they emphasize the simulation of long-term economic and forest developments where representation of human behavior is simplified in time and space. In this context, we compare the representation of individual and aggregated decision-making in the same model structure and by doing so address some implications of choosing short or long term time horizons in land-use modeling. Based on survey data, we integrate dynamic agents into a comparative static economic sector supply model in a Swiss mountain region. The results from an extensive sensitivity analysis show that this agent-based land-use change model can reproduce observed data correctly and that both model versions are sensitive to the same model parameters. In particular, in both models the specification of opportunity costs determines the extent of production activities and land-use changes by restricting the output space. Our results point out that the agent-based model can capture short and medium term developments in land abandonment better than the aggregated version without losing its sensitivity to important socio-economic drivers. For comparative static approaches, extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to opportunity costs, i.e., the measure of benefits forgone due to alternative uses of labor is essential for the assessment of the impact of climate change on land

Effects of Relocation and Individual and Environmental Factors on the Long-Term Stress Levels in Captive Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes: Monitoring Hair Cortisol and Behaviors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yumi Yamanashi

Full Text Available Understanding the factors associated with the long-term stress levels of captive animals is important from the view of animal welfare. In this study, we investigated the effects of relocation in addition to individual and environmental factors related to social management on long-term stress level in group-living captive chimpanzees by examining behaviors and hair cortisol (HC. Specifically, we conducted two studies. The first compared changes in HC levels before and after the relocation of 8 chimpanzees (Study 1 and the second examined the relationship between individual and environmental factors and individual HC levels in 58 chimpanzees living in Kumamoto Sanctuary (KS, Kyoto University (Study 2. We hypothesized that relocation, social situation, sex, and early rearing conditions, would affect the HC levels of captive chimpanzees. We cut arm hair from chimpanzees and extracted and assayed cortisol with an enzyme immunoassay. Aggressive behaviors were recorded ad libitum by keepers using a daily behavior monitoring sheet developed for this study. The results of Study 1 indicate that HC levels increased during the first year after relocation to the new environment and then decreased during the second year. We observed individual differences in reactions to relocation and hypothesized that social factors may mediate these changes. In Study 2, we found that the standardized rate of receiving aggression, rearing history, sex, and group formation had a significant influence on mean HC levels. Relocation status was not a significant factor, but mean HC level was positively correlated with the rate of receiving aggression. Mean HC levels were higher in males than in females, and the association between aggressive interactions and HC levels differed by sex. These results suggest that, although relocation can affect long-term stress level, individuals' experiences of aggression and sex may be more important contributors to long-term stress than

Long-Term Refugee Health: Health Behaviors and Outcomes of Cambodian Refugee and Immigrant Women

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson-Peterman, Jerusha L.; Toof, Robin; Liang, Sidney L.; Grigg-Saito, Dorcas C.

2015-01-01

Refugees in the United States have high rates of chronic disease. Both long-term effects of the refugee experience and adjustment to the U.S. health environment may contribute. While there is significant research on health outcomes of newly resettled refugees and long-term mental health experiences of established refugees, there is currently…

Long-term behavior of glass-ceramic zirconolite; Etude du comportement a long terme des vitrocristallins a base de zirconolite

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martin, Ch

2003-07-01

This work is a part of the investigation of new containment matrices considered for specific conditioning of radionuclides after separation. The aim was to demonstrate the long-term aqueous corrosion resistance of the glass-ceramic zirconolite considered for the conditioning of plutonium and the minor actinides. This material is composed of crystals of zirconolite (CaZrTi{sub 2}O{sub 7}) dispersed in a residual vitreous phase. It appears that glass-ceramic zirconolite presents a better kinetic behavior than the nuclear glass R 7T7. This is mainly due to a more important rate decrease that occurs more rapidly, that induces a quantity of glass altered at least 10 times as small as for R 7T7 glass. This high slowdown of the alteration rate is attributed to the formation of an alteration film that has been the subject of a specific study. We have demonstrated that the rate decrease was controlled as for the R7T7 glass by the amorphous phase of the alteration film forming a diffusion barrier for reactive species. It seems that the porosity is not the single parameter that explains the protective effect of the gel. The main differences compared with R7T7 glass are that silicon does not control the alteration of the material and that the gel is composed of two distinct phases. We have in particular identified a dense phase enriched in titanium and neodymium that probably influences deeply the kinetics. (author)

Individual decision making in the non-purchase of long-term care insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Leslie A; Robison, Julie; Shugrue, Noreen; Keenan, Patricia; Kapp, Marshall B

2009-08-01

Although prior research suggests that economic, behavioral, and psychosocial factors influence decisions not to purchase long-term care insurance, few studies have examined the interplay among these factors in depth and from the consumer's point of view. This study was intended to further illuminate these considerations, generate hypotheses about non-purchasing decisions, and inform the design of policies that are responsive to concerns and preferences of potential purchasers. Qualitative study using 32 in-depth interviews and 6 focus groups, following a grounded theory approach. Five themes characterize decisions not to purchase long-term care insurance: (a) the determination that a policy is "too costly" reflects highly individualized and complex trade-offs not solely economic in nature, (b) non-purchasers are skeptical about the viability and integrity of private insurance companies and seek an unbiased source of information, (c) family dynamics play an important role in insurance decisions, (d) contemplating personal risk for long-term care triggers psychological responses that have implications for decision making, and (e) non-purchasers feel inadequately informed and overwhelmed by the process of deciding whether to purchase long-term care insurance. States are seeking to offset escalating Medicaid long-term care expenditures through a variety of policy mechanisms, including stimulating individual purchase of long-term care insurance. Findings suggest that economic incentives such as lowering premiums will be necessary but not sufficient to attract appropriate candidates. Attention to behavioral and psychosocial factors is essential to designing incentives that are responsive to concerns and preferences of potential purchasers.

Effects of Long-Term Ayahuasca Administration on Memory and Anxiety in Rats.

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Favaro, Vanessa Manchim; Yonamine, Maurício; Soares, Juliana Carlota Kramer; Oliveira, Maria Gabriela Menezes

2015-01-01

Ayahuasca is a hallucinogenic beverage that combines the action of the 5-HT2A/2C agonist N,N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT) from Psychotria viridis with the monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOIs) induced by beta-carbonyls from Banisteriopsis caapi. Previous investigations have highlighted the involvement of ayahuasca with the activation of brain regions known to be involved with episodic memory, contextual associations and emotional processing after ayahuasca ingestion. Moreover long term users show better performance in neuropsychological tests when tested in off-drug condition. This study evaluated the effects of long-term administration of ayahuasca on Morris water maze (MWM), fear conditioning and elevated plus maze (EPM) performance in rats. Behavior tests started 48h after the end of treatment. Freeze-dried ayahuasca doses of 120, 240 and 480 mg/kg were used, with water as the control. Long-term administration consisted of a daily oral dose for 30 days by gavage. The behavioral data indicated that long-term ayahuasca administration did not affect the performance of animals in MWM and EPM tasks. However the dose of 120 mg/kg increased the contextual conditioned fear response for both background and foreground fear conditioning. The tone conditioned response was not affected after long-term administration. In addition, the increase in the contextual fear response was maintained during the repeated sessions several weeks after training. Taken together, these data showed that long-term ayahuasca administration in rats can interfere with the contextual association of emotional events, which is in agreement with the fact that the beverage activates brain areas related to these processes.

Effects of Long-Term Ayahuasca Administration on Memory and Anxiety in Rats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa Manchim Favaro

Full Text Available Ayahuasca is a hallucinogenic beverage that combines the action of the 5-HT2A/2C agonist N,N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT from Psychotria viridis with the monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOIs induced by beta-carbonyls from Banisteriopsis caapi. Previous investigations have highlighted the involvement of ayahuasca with the activation of brain regions known to be involved with episodic memory, contextual associations and emotional processing after ayahuasca ingestion. Moreover long term users show better performance in neuropsychological tests when tested in off-drug condition. This study evaluated the effects of long-term administration of ayahuasca on Morris water maze (MWM, fear conditioning and elevated plus maze (EPM performance in rats. Behavior tests started 48h after the end of treatment. Freeze-dried ayahuasca doses of 120, 240 and 480 mg/kg were used, with water as the control. Long-term administration consisted of a daily oral dose for 30 days by gavage. The behavioral data indicated that long-term ayahuasca administration did not affect the performance of animals in MWM and EPM tasks. However the dose of 120 mg/kg increased the contextual conditioned fear response for both background and foreground fear conditioning. The tone conditioned response was not affected after long-term administration. In addition, the increase in the contextual fear response was maintained during the repeated sessions several weeks after training. Taken together, these data showed that long-term ayahuasca administration in rats can interfere with the contextual association of emotional events, which is in agreement with the fact that the beverage activates brain areas related to these processes.

Long-term nitrite inhalant exposure and cancer risk in MSM

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Anupriya; Uno, Hajime; Holman, Alex; Lorenz, David R.; Wolinsky, Steven M.; Gabuzda, Dana

2017-01-01

Objectives: Nitrite inhalants (poppers) are commonly used recreational drugs among MSM and were previously associated with elevated rates of high-risk sexual behavior, HIV and human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8) seroconversion, and transient immunosuppressive effects in experimental models. Whether long-term popper use is associated with cancer risk among MSM in the HAART era is unclear. Design: Prospective cohort study of cancer risk in 3223 HIV-infected and uninfected MSM in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study from 1996–2010. Methods: Poisson regression models were used to examine the association between heavy popper use (defined as daily or weekly use for at least 1 year) and risk of individual cancers or composite category of virus-associated cancers. Results: Among all participants, heavy popper use was not associated with increased risk of any individual cancers. Among HIV-uninfected men aged 50–70, heavy popper use was associated with increased risk of virus-associated cancer with causes linked to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus in models adjusted for demographics, number of sexual partners, immunological parameters (CD4+ cell counts or CD4+/CD8+ ratios), and hepatitis B and C viruses [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24, 1.05–9.96], or sexually transmitted infections (IRR 3.03, 95% CI, 1.01–9.09), as was cumulative use over a 5-year period (IRR 1.012, 95% CI 1.003–1.021; P = 0.007). There was no significant association between heavy popper use and virus-associated cancer in HIV-infected men. Conclusions: Long-term heavy popper use is associated with elevated risk of some virus-associated cancers with causes related to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus infections in older HIV-uninfected MSM independent of sexual behavior and immunological parameters. PMID:28441176

Evaluation of long term leaching of borosilicate glasses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lanza, F.; Parnisari, E.

1978-01-01

For the evaluation of long term hazard of glass, data on long term glass leaching are needed. Moreover for long term leaching a model of homogeneous dissolution seems reasonable and ask for confirmation. Tests were performed at 30 0 , 80 0 , 100 0 , using an apparatus of the Soxhlet type, to 3.600 hours. Results were obtained as a weight loss and analysed following a relation with time composed by a parabolic and a linear part. Analysis of the surface layer using energy dispersion X ray spectrometry were performed. A critical analysis of the results and of the apparatus is presented

Long-term Nash equilibria in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pozo, David; Contreras, Javier; Caballero, Angel; de Andres, Antonio

2011-01-01

In competitive electricity markets, companies simultaneously offer their productions to obtain the maximum profits on a daily basis. In the long run, the strategies utilized by the electric companies lead to various long-term equilibria that can be analyzed with the appropriate tools. We present a methodology to find plausible long-term Nash equilibria in pool-based electricity markets. The methodology is based on an iterative market Nash equilibrium model in which the companies can decide upon their offer strategies. An exponential smoothing of the bids submitted by the companies is applied to facilitate the convergence of the iterative procedure. In each iteration of the model the companies face residual demand curves that are accurately modeled by Hermite interpolating polynomials. We introduce the concept of meta-game equilibrium strategies to allow companies to have a range of offer strategies where several pure and mixed meta-game Nash equilibria are possible. With our model it is also possible to model uncertainty or to generate price scenarios for financial models that assess the value of a generating unit by real options analysis. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated with several realistic case studies. (author)

Long-term multipactor discharge in multicarrier systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anza, S.; Vicente, C.; Gimeno, B.; Boria, V. E.; Armendariz, J.

2007-01-01

A new mechanism of long-term multipactor in multicarrier systems is studied employing both analytical and numerical methods. In particular, the investigation is focused on the impact that a realistic secondary emission yield at low energies produces on the development of long term multipactor. A novel analytical model for this interperiod charge accumulation is presented using the traditional multipactor theory for parallel plates, and approximating the multicarrier signal as a single-carrier signal modulated by a pulsed signal envelope. The analytical predictions are verified by numerical simulations for a typical rectangular waveguide. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the susceptibility of the system to develop a long-term multipactor discharge increases with higher values of low-energy secondary emission yield

Assessments of long term mechanical behavior of CANDU fuel channel by means of PFEM analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Florea, S.; Pavelescu, M.

2005-01-01

Structural analysis with finite elements method is today a usual way to evaluate and predict the behavior of structural assemblies exposed to severe conditions, in order to ensure their safety end reliability. CANDU 600 fuel channel is an example in which long time irradiation with implicit consequences on material properties evolution interfere with the corrosion and thermal aggression. A high degree of uncertainty in the evolution of the material's properties must be considered. These are the reasons for developing, in association with deterministic evaluations with computer codes, the probabilistic and statistical methods, in order to predict the structural components response. In INR (Institute of Nuclear Research) in the past years, a code for thermo-mechanical analysis of the fuel channel from CANDU 600 nuclear power plant of Cernavoda was developed using finite element methods (FEM). The CANTUP code evaluate the stress and strain state of the mechanical assembly of fuel channel, considered to be divided into pressure tube, calandria tube and four spacers, supposed to be equidistantly distributed along the pressure tube. The main achievement obtained with this code was the prediction of the long-term behavior of the sag of the pressure tube, by analysis in which the creep phenomenon and the contact between the spacers and calandria tube were considered. This reason has sustained the attempt to estimate the possibility to use this code in order to perform probabilistic evaluations. (authors)

Assessments of long term mechanical behavior of CANDU fuel channel by means of PFEM analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Florea, S.; Pavelescu, M.

2005-01-01

Full text: Structural analysis with finite elements method is today a usual way to evaluate and predict the behavior of structural assemblies exposed to severe conditions, in order to ensure their safety end reliability. CANDU 600 fuel channel is an example in which long time irradiation with implicit consequences on material properties evolution interfere with the corrosion and thermal aggression. A high degree of uncertainty in the evolution of the material's properties must be considered. These are the reasons for developing, in association with deterministic evaluations with computer codes, the probabilistic and statistical methods, in order to predict the structural components response. In INR (Institute of Nuclear Research) in the past years, a code for thermo-mechanical analysis of the fuel channel from CANDU 600 nuclear power plant of Cernavoda was developed using finite element methods (FEM). The CANTUP code evaluate the stress and strain state of the mechanical assembly of fuel channel, considered to be divided into pressure tube, calandria tube and four spacers, supposed to be equidistantly distributed along the pressure tube. The main achievement obtained with this code was the prediction of the long-term behavior of the sag of the pressure tube, by analysis in which the creep phenomenon and the contact between the spacers and calandria tube were considered. This reason has sustained the attempt to estimate the possibility to use this code in order to perform probabilistic evaluations. (authors)

Stress responses of adolescent male and female rats exposed repeatedly to cat odor stimuli, and long-term enhancement of adult defensive behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Lisa D; Muir, Katherine E; Perrot, Tara S

2013-07-01

In order to characterize the short- and long-term effects of repeated stressor exposure during adolescence, and to compare the effects of using two sources of cat odor as stressor stimuli, male and female adolescent rats (postnatal day (PND) ∼ 38-46) were exposed on five occasions to either a control stimulus, a cloth stimulus containing cat hair/dander, or a section of cat collar previously worn by a cat. Relative to control stimulus exposure, activity was suppressed and defensive behavior enhanced during exposure to either cat odor stimulus (most pervasively in rats exposed to the collar). Only cloth-exposed rats showed elevated levels of corticosterone (CORT), and only after repeated stressor exposure, but interestingly, rats exposed to the collar stimulus during adolescence continued to show increased behavioral indices of anxiety in adulthood. In this group, the time an individual spent in physical contact with a cagemate during the final adolescent exposure was negatively related to stress-induced CORT output in adulthood, which suggests that greater use of social support during adolescent stress may facilitate adult behavioral coping, without necessitating increased CORT release. These findings demonstrate that adolescent male and female rats respond defensively to cat odor stimuli across repeated exposures and that exposure to such stressors during adolescence can augment adult anxiety-like behavior in similar stressful conditions. These findings also suggest a potential role for social behavior during adolescent stressor exposure in mediating long-term outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Short and long-lasting behavioral consequences of agonistic encounters between male Drosophila melanogaster.

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Trannoy, Séverine; Penn, Jill; Lucey, Kenia; Popovic, David; Kravitz, Edward A

2016-04-26

In many animal species, learning and memory have been found to play important roles in regulating intra- and interspecific behavioral interactions in varying environments. In such contexts, aggression is commonly used to obtain desired resources. Previous defeats or victories during aggressive interactions have been shown to influence the outcome of later contests, revealing loser and winner effects. In this study, we asked whether short- and/or long-term behavioral consequences accompany victories and defeats in dyadic pairings between male Drosophila melanogaster and how long those effects remain. The results demonstrated that single fights induced important behavioral changes in both combatants and resulted in the formation of short-term loser and winner effects. These decayed over several hours, with the duration depending on the level of familiarity of the opponents. Repeated defeats induced a long-lasting loser effect that was dependent on de novo protein synthesis, whereas repeated victories had no long-term behavioral consequences. This suggests that separate mechanisms govern the formation of loser and winner effects. These studies aim to lay a foundation for future investigations exploring the molecular mechanisms and circuitry underlying the nervous system changes induced by winning and losing bouts during agonistic encounters.

Improvement in reliability of the long-term mechanical behavior of buffer material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaji, Kazuhiko; Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Shimogouchi, Takafumi; Hirai, Takashi; Shiratake, Toshikazu

2005-02-01

On the R and D of the HLW repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining each ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the various external forces will be affected to the buffer intricately for a long period of time. So, evaluation of mechanical behavior of the buffer is important to carry out safety assessment of EBS. In this report, the effects of mechanical behavior of the buffer to its safety performance are examined. As a result, the ability to filtrate colloids and the ability to keep diffusion-dominated environment are maintained for 100,000 years. Natural analogue of bentonite ore is also done to corroborate viscous parameter of the buffer. The results shows that the laboratory test data is reasonable compared with the analogized viscous parameters of the 15M years aged ore. Next, the mechanical parameters of the buffer under brine environment are examined. Then the mechanical behavior of the buffer is analyzed. Throughout these processes, the scheme for freshwater environment is confirmed to be valid under brine environment. At the last, the EBS field-test that is planned at Horonobe underground laboratory is analyzed. The analysis is encountered viscous behavior of the buffer and the surrounding rock under corrosion expansion of the overpack. The result offers the mechanical data to design the field test. (author)

Long-term outcomes of young people who attempted suicide

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grisham, Jessica R; Williams, Alishia D

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Suicidal behavior has increased since the onset of the global recession, a trend that may have long-term health and social implications. OBJECTIVE To test whether suicide attempts among young people signal increased risk for later poor health and social functioning above and beyond a

Greater emotional arousal predicts poorer long-term memory of communication skills in couples.

Science.gov (United States)

Baucom, Brian R; Weusthoff, Sarah; Atkins, David C; Hahlweg, Kurt

2012-06-01

Many studies have examined the importance of learning skills in behaviorally based couple interventions but none have examined predictors of long-term memory for skills. Associations between emotional arousal and long-term recall of communication skills delivered to couples during a behaviorally based relationship distress prevention program were examined in a sample of 49 German couples. Fundamental frequency (f(0)), a vocal measure of encoded emotional arousal, was measured during pre-treatment couple conflict. Higher levels of f(0) were linked to fewer skills remembered 11 years after completing the program, and women remembered more skills than men. Implications of results for behaviorally based couple interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-lasting Effects of Minocycline on Behavior in Young but not Adult Fragile X Mice

Science.gov (United States)

Dansie, Lorraine E.; Phommahaxay, Kelly; Okusanya, Ayodeji G.; Uwadia, Jessica; Huang, Mike; Rotschafer, Sarah E.; Razak, Khaleel A.; Ethell, Douglas W.; Ethell, Iryna M.

2013-01-01

Fragile X Syndrome (FXS) is the most common single-gene inherited form of intellectual disability with behaviors characteristic of autism. People with FXS display childhood seizures, hyperactivity, anxiety, developmental delay, attention deficits, and visual-spatial memory impairment, as well as a propensity for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Several of these aberrant behaviors and FXS-associated synaptic irregularities also occur in “fragile X mental retardation gene” knock-out (Fmr1 KO) mice. We previously reported that minocycline promotes the maturation of dendritic spines - postsynaptic sites for excitatory synapses - in the developing hippocampus of Fmr1 KO mice, which may underlie the beneficial effects of minocycline on anxiolytic behavior in young Fmr1 KO mice. In this study, we compared the effectiveness of minocycline treatment in young and adult Fmr1 KO mice, and determined the dependence of behavioral improvements on short-term versus long-term minocycline administration. We found that 4 and 8 week long treatments significantly reduced locomotor activity in both young and adult Fmr1 KO mice. Some behavioral improvements persisted in young mice post-treatment, but in adults the beneficial effects were lost soon after minocycline treatment was stopped. We also show, for the first time, that minocycline treatment partially attenuates the number and severity of audiogenic seizures in Fmr1 KO mice. This report provides further evidence that minocycline treatment has immediate and long-lasting benefits on FXS-associated behaviors in the Fmr1 KO mouse model. PMID:23660195

Drosophila Neprilysins Are Involved in Middle-Term and Long-Term Memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Turrel, Oriane; Lampin-Saint-Amaux, Aurélie; Préat, Thomas; Goguel, Valérie

2016-09-14

Neprilysins are type II metalloproteinases known to degrade and inactivate a number of small peptides. Neprilysins in particular are the major amyloid-β peptide-degrading enzymes. In mouse models of Alzheimer's disease, neprilysin overexpression improves learning and memory deficits, whereas neprilysin deficiency aggravates the behavioral phenotypes. However, whether these enzymes are involved in memory in nonpathological conditions is an open question. Drosophila melanogaster is a well suited model system with which to address this issue. Several memory phases have been characterized in this organism and the neuronal circuits involved are well described. The fly genome contains five neprilysin-encoding genes, four of which are expressed in the adult. Using conditional RNA interference, we show here that all four neprilysins are involved in middle-term and long-term memory. Strikingly, all four are required in a single pair of neurons, the dorsal paired medial (DPM) neurons that broadly innervate the mushroom bodies (MBs), the center of olfactory memory. Neprilysins are also required in the MB, reflecting the functional relationship between the DPM neurons and the MB, a circuit believed to stabilize memories. Together, our data establish a role for neprilysins in two specific memory phases and further show that DPM neurons play a critical role in the proper targeting of neuropeptides involved in these processes. Neprilysins are endopeptidases known to degrade a number of small peptides. Neprilysin research has essentially focused on their role in Alzheimer's disease and heart failure. Here, we use Drosophila melanogaster to study whether neprilysins are involved in memory. Drosophila can form several types of olfactory memory and the neuronal structures involved are well described. Four neprilysin genes are expressed in adult Drosophila Using conditional RNA interference, we show that all four are specifically involved in middle-term memory (MTM) and long-term

Long-term stability analysis of the left bank abutment slope at Jinping I hydropower station

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Long; Yang, Qiang; Liu, Yaoru

2016-01-01

The time-dependent behavior of the left bank abutment slope at Jinping I hydropower station has a major influence on the normal operation and long-term safety of the hydropower station. To solve this problem, a geomechanical model containing various faults and weak structural planes is established, and numerical simulation is conducted under normal water load condition using FLAC3D, incorporating creep model proposed based on thermodynamics with internal state variables theory. The creep defo...

Mothers with HIP - the short term and long-term impact, what is new?

Science.gov (United States)

Mecacci, Federico; Ottanelli, Serena; Petraglia, Felice

2018-05-03

Hyperglycemia is one of the most common medical conditions that women encounter during pregnancy and it is due to gestational diabetes (GDM) in the majority of cases [1]. GDM is associated with a higher incidence of maternal morbidity in pregnancy in term of hypertensive disorders/preclampsia and higher rate of cesarean delivery but also with long-term risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Pregnancy can therefore be considered a stress test; diagnosis of HIP can unmask a preexisting susceptibility and consequently a future risk for type 2 diabetes and can be a useful marker of future cardiovascular risk. Postpartum follow up provides an excellent opportunity to implement healthy lifestyle behaviors to prevent or delay the development of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. The aim of the current review is to focus on short and long term maternal morbidity of HIP. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prevalence of Long-Term Opioid Use in Long-Stay Nursing Home Residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunnicutt, Jacob N; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Ulbricht, Christine M; Hume, Anne L; Tjia, Jennifer; Lapane, Kate L

2018-01-01

Overall and long-term opioid use among older adults have increased since 1999. Less is known about opioid use in older adults in nursing homes (NHs). Cross-sectional. U.S. NHs (N = 13,522). Long-stay NH resident Medicare beneficiaries with a Minimum Data Set 3.0 (MDS) assessment between April 1, 2012, and June 30, 2012, and 120 days of follow-up (N = 315,949). We used Medicare Part D claims to measure length of opioid use in the 120 days from the index assessment (short-term: ≤30 days, medium-term: >30-89 days, long-term: ≥90 days), adjuvants (e.g., anticonvulsants), and other pain medications (e.g., corticosteroids). MDS assessments in the follow-up period were used to measure nonpharmacological pain management use. Modified Poisson models were used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for age, gender, race and ethnicity, cognitive and physical impairment, and long-term opioid use. Of all long-stay residents, 32.4% were prescribed any opioid, and 15.5% were prescribed opioids long-term. Opioid users (versus nonusers) were more commonly prescribed pain adjuvants (32.9% vs 14.9%), other pain medications (25.5% vs 11.0%), and nonpharmacological pain management (24.5% vs 9.3%). Long-term opioid use was higher in women (aPR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.18-1.23) and lower in racial and ethnic minorities (non-Hispanic blacks vs whites: APR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.90-0.94) and those with severe cognitive impairment (vs no or mild impairment, aPR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.79-0.83). One in seven NH residents was prescribed opioids long-term. Recent guidelines on opioid prescribing for pain recommend reducing long-term opioid use, but this is challenging in NHs because residents may not benefit from nonpharmacological and nonopioid interventions. Studies to address concerns about opioid safety and effectiveness (e.g., on pain and functional status) in NHs are needed. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics

Long-term changes in cognitive bias and coping response as a result of chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaby, Lauren E; Cavigelli, Sonia A; White, Amanda; Wang, Kayllie; Braithwaite, Victoria A

2013-01-01

Animals that experience adverse events in early life often have life-long changes to their physiology and behavior. Long-term effects of stress during early life have been studied extensively, but less attention has been given to the consequences of negative experiences solely during the adolescent phase. Adolescence is a particularly sensitive period of life when regulation of the glucocorticoid "stress" hormone response matures and specific regions in the brain undergo considerable change. Aversive experiences during this time might, therefore, be expected to generate long-term consequences for the adult phenotype. Here we investigated the long-term effects of exposure to chronic unpredictable stress during adolescence on adult decision-making, coping response, cognitive bias, and exploratory behavior in rats. Rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (e.g., isolation, crowding, cage tilt) were compared to control animals that were maintained in standard, predictable conditions throughout development. Unpredictable stress during adolescence resulted in a suite of long-term behavioral and cognitive changes including a negative cognitive bias [F (1, 12) = 5.000, P chronic stress during adolescence also caused a short-term increase in boldness behaviors; in a novel object test 15 days after the last stressor, animals exposed to chronic unpredictable stress had decreased latencies to leave a familiar shelter and approach a novel object [T (1, 14) = 2.240, P = 0.04; T (1, 14) = 2.419, P = 0.03, respectively]. The results showed that stress during adolescence has long-term impacts on behavior and cognition that affect the interpretation of ambiguous stimuli, behavioral response to adverse events, and how animals make decisions.

A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Hung Lin

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

A single exposure to immobilization causes long-lasting pituitary-adrenal and behavioral sensitization to mild stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Belda, Xavier; Fuentes, Silvia; Nadal, Roser; Armario, Antonio

2008-11-01

We have previously reported that a single exposure to immobilization (IMO) in rats causes a long-term desensitization of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) response to the same (homotypic) stressor. Since there are reports showing that a single exposure to other stressors causes sensitization of the HPA response to heterotypic stressors and increases anxiety-like behavior, we studied in the present work the long-term effects of IMO on behavioral and HPA response to mild superimposed stressors. In Experiments 1 and 2, adult male Sprague-Dawley rats were subjected to 2 h of IMO and then exposed for 5 min to the elevated plus-maze (EPM) at 1, 3 or 7 days after IMO. Blood samples were taken at 15 min after initial exposure to the EPM. Increases in anxiety-like behavior and HPA responsiveness to the EPM were found at all times post-IMO. Changes in the resting levels of HPA hormones did not explain the enhanced HPA responsiveness to the EPM (Experiment 3). In Experiments 4 and 5, we studied the effects of a single exposure to a shorter session of IMO (1 h) on behavioral and HPA responses to a brief and mild session of foot-shocks done 10 days after IMO. Neither previous IMO nor exposure to shocks in control rats modified behavior in the EPM. However, a brief session of shocks in previously IMO-exposed rats dramatically increased anxiety in the EPM. HPA and freezing responses to shocks were similar in control and previous IMO groups. Therefore, a single exposure to IMO appears to induce long-lasting HPA and behavioral sensitization to mild superimposed stressors, although the two responses are likely to be at least partially independent. Long-term effects of IMO on the susceptibility to stress-induced endocrine and emotional disturbances may be relevant to the characterization of animal models of post-traumatic stress.

Visual recognition memory, manifested as long-term habituation, requires synaptic plasticity in V1.