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Sample records for long-term behavior models

  1. Chaos in long-term behavior of some Bianchi-type VIII models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halpern, P

    1987-01-01

    The long-term behavior of Bianchi-type VIII models with three different types of stress-energy tensors are examined and compared. The vacuum model, a matter-filled model, and a model with an electromagnetic field are considered. In each case the existence of chaotic behavior and transitions to chaotic behavior are discussed.

  2. Long-term behavior of nuclear glass: the r(t) operational model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribet, I.; Gin, S.; Minet, Y.; Vernaz, E.; Chaix, P.; Do Quang, R.

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the long-term behavior of vitrified waste packages requires the development of models incorporating knowledge of the aqueous alteration mechanisms of nuclear glass. The r(t) model allows for the formation of a protective gel layer during leaching, and is thus able to account for the major drops in the glass alteration rate that are observed experimentally. This article describes the model hypotheses, the methodology implemented to determine its three internal parameters, and the results obtained from about fifty leaching experiments performed under various conditions. The orders of magnitude of the internal parameter values are indicated according to the alteration conditions. (author)

  3. Calibrating and validating a FE model for long-term behavior of RC beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tošić Nikola D.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the research carried out in finding an optimal finite element (FE model for calculating the long-term behavior of reinforced concrete (RC beams. A multi-purpose finite element software DIANA was used. A benchmark test in the form of a simply supported beam loaded in four point bending was selected for model calibration. The result was the choice of 3-node beam elements, a multi-directional fixed crack model with constant stress cut-off, nonlinear tension softening and constant shear retention and a creep and shrinkage model according to CEB-FIP Model Code 1990. The model was then validated on 14 simply supported beams and 6 continuous beams. Good agreement was found with experimental results (within ±15%.

  4. Thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass - long term behavior modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orlhac, X.

    2000-01-01

    The thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass was investigated experimentally and by modeling to predict its long-term evolution at low temperature. The crystallization mechanisms were analyzed by studying devitrification in the supercooled liquid. Three main crystalline phases were characterized (CaMoO 4 , CeCO 2 , ZnCr 2 O 4 ). Their crystallisation was TO 4.24 wt%, due to the low concentration of the constituent elements. The nucleation and growth curves showed that platinoid elements catalysed nucleation but did not affect growth, which was governed by volume diffusion. The criteria of classic nucleation theory were applied to determine the thermodynamic and diffusional activation energies. Viscosity measurements illustrate the analogy between the activation energy of viscous flow and diffusion, indicating control of crystallization by viscous flow phenomena. The combined action of nucleation and growth was assessed by TTT plots, revealing a crystallization equilibrium line that enables the crystallized fractions to be predicted over the long term. The authors show that hetero-genetics catalyze the transformation without modifying the maximum crystallized fraction. A kinetic model was developed to describe devitrification in the glass based on the nucleation and growth curves alone. The authors show that the low-temperature growth exhibits scale behavior (between time and temperature) similar to thermo-rheological simplicity. The analogy between the resulting activation energy and that of the viscosity was used to model growth on the basis of viscosity. After validation with a simplified (BaO 2 SiO 2 ) glass, the model was applied to the containment glass. The result indicated that the glass remained completely vitreous after a cooling scenario with the one measured at the glass core. Under isothermal conditions, several million years would be required to reach the maximum theoretical crystallization fraction. (author)

  5. Modelling long term energy consumption of French residential sector - improving behavioral realism and simulating ambitious scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allibe, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    This thesis aims to integrate components of an economic model of the behaviors of households in a technological model of French residential sector energy consumption dynamics and to analyze the consequences of this integration on the results of long-term residential energy consumption simulations (2030-2050). The results of this work highlight significant differences between the actual household space heating energy consumptions and those estimated by engineering models. These differences are largely due to the elasticity of thermal comfort demand to thermal comfort price. Our improved model makes it possible to conjointly integrate the concepts of price elasticity and rebound effect (the increase in energy service level following an improvement in energy performance of the equipment providing the service) in a daily behavior model. Regarding space heating consumption, the consequences of this behavioral adaptation - combined with some technical defects - are a significant reduction of the technical and behavioral energy saving potentials (while effective daily use of energy is generally lower than predicted by engineering models) at a national level. This implies that mid and long-term national energy policy targets (a 38% drop in primary energy consumption by 2020 and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared to the 1990 level) will be harder to reach than previously expected for the residential sector. These results also imply that a strong reduction in carbon emissions cannot be achieved solely through the diffusion of efficient technologies and energy conservation behavior but also requires to significantly lower the average carbon content of residential space heating energy through the generalized use of wood energy. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the influence of the resolution of a techno-economic model (i.e. its ability to represent the various values that a variable can have within the modeled system) on its

  6. Study of archaeological analogs for the validation of nuclear glass long-term behavior models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verney-Carron, A.

    2008-10-01

    Fractured archaeological glass blocks collected from a shipwreck discovered in the Mediterranean Sea near Embiez Island (Var) were investigated because of their morphological analogy with vitrified nuclear waste and of a known and stable environment. These glasses are fractured due to a fast cooling after they were melted (like nuclear glass) and have been altered for 1800 years in seawater. This work results in the development and the validation of a geochemical model able to simulate the alteration of a fractured archaeological glass block over 1800 years. The kinetics associated with the different mechanisms (interdiffusion and dissolution) and the thermodynamic parameters of the model were determined by leaching experiments. The model implemented in HYTEC software was used to simulate crack alteration over 1800 years. The consistency between simulated alteration thicknesses and measured data on glass blocks validate the capacity of the model to predict long-term alteration. This model is able to account for the results from the characterization of crack network and its state of alteration. The cracks in the border zone are the most altered due to a fast renewal of the leaching solution, whereas internal cracks are thin because of complex interactions between glass alteration and transport of elements in solution (influence of initial crack aperture and of the crack sealing). The lowest alteration thicknesses, as well as their variability, can be explained. The analog behavior of archaeological and nuclear glasses from leaching experiments makes possible the transposition of the model to nuclear glass in geological repository. (author)

  7. Thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass - long term behavior modeling; Etude de la stabilite thermique du verre nucleaire. Modelisation de son evolution a long terme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orlhac, X

    2000-07-01

    The thermal stability of the French nuclear waste glass was investigated experimentally and by modeling to predict its long-term evolution at low temperature. The crystallization mechanisms were analyzed by studying devitrification in the supercooled liquid. Three main crystalline phases were characterized (CaMoO{sub 4}, CeCO{sub 2}, ZnCr{sub 2}O{sub 4}). Their crystallisation was TO 4.24 wt%, due to the low concentration of the constituent elements. The nucleation and growth curves showed that platinoid elements catalysed nucleation but did not affect growth, which was governed by volume diffusion. The criteria of classic nucleation theory were applied to determine the thermodynamic and diffusional activation energies. Viscosity measurements illustrate the analogy between the activation energy of viscous flow and diffusion, indicating control of crystallization by viscous flow phenomena. The combined action of nucleation and growth was assessed by TTT plots, revealing a crystallization equilibrium line that enables the crystallized fractions to be predicted over the long term. The authors show that hetero-genetics catalyze the transformation without modifying the maximum crystallized fraction. A kinetic model was developed to describe devitrification in the glass based on the nucleation and growth curves alone. The authors show that the low-temperature growth exhibits scale behavior (between time and temperature) similar to thermo-rheological simplicity. The analogy between the resulting activation energy and that of the viscosity was used to model growth on the basis of viscosity. After validation with a simplified (BaO{sub 2}SiO{sub 2}) glass, the model was applied to the containment glass. The result indicated that the glass remained completely vitreous after a cooling scenario with the one measured at the glass core. Under isothermal conditions, several million years would be required to reach the maximum theoretical crystallization fraction. (author)

  8. Long-term aging behaviors in a model soft colloidal system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi; Peng, Xiaoguang; McKenna, Gregory B

    2017-02-15

    Colloidal and molecular systems share similar behaviors near to the glass transition volume fraction or temperature. Here, aging behaviors after volume fraction up-jump (induced by performing temperature down-jumps) conditions for a PS-PNIPAM/AA soft colloidal system were investigated using light scattering (diffusing wave spectroscopy, DWS). Both aging responses and equilibrium dynamics were investigated. For the aging responses, long-term experiments (100 000 s) were performed, and both equilibrium and non-equilibrium behaviors of the system were obtained. In the equilibrium state, as effective volume fraction increases (or temperature decreases), the colloidal dispersion displays a transition from the liquid to a glassy state. The equilibrium α-relaxation dynamics strongly depend on both the effective volume fraction and the initial mass concentration for the studied colloidal systems. Compared with prior results from our lab [X. Di, X. Peng and G. B. McKenna, J. Chem. Phys., 2014, 140, 054903], the effective volume fractions investigated spanned a wider range, to deeper into the glassy domain. The results show that the α-relaxation time τ α of the samples aged into equilibrium deviate from the classical Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann (VFT)-type expectations and the super-Arrhenius signature disappears above the glass transition volume fraction. The non-equilibrium aging response shows that the time for the structural evolution into equilibrium and the α-relaxation time are decoupled. The DWS investigation of the aging behavior after different volume fraction jumps reveals a different non-equilibrium or aging behavior for the considered colloidal systems compared with either molecular glasses or the macroscopic rheology of a similar colloidal dispersions.

  9. Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term mechanical behavior of buffer. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaji, Kazuhiko; Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Shimogouchi, Takafumi; Shiratake, Toshikazu; Tamura, Hirokuni

    2004-02-01

    On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining each ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the various external forces will be affected to buffer intricately for a long period of time. So, to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer against the external force is important, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, several sets of parameters are chosen for the previously selected two constitutive models, Sekiguchi-Ohta model and Adachi-Oka model, and the element tests and mock-up tests are simulated using these parameters. Through the simulation, applicability of the constitutive models and parameters is examined. Moreover, simulation analyses of EBS using these parameters is examined. Moreover, simulation analyses of EBS using these parameters were carried out, and mechanical behavior is evaluated over a long period of time. Analysis estimated the amount of settlement of the over pack, the stress state of buffer material, the reaction force to a base rock, etc., and the result that EBS is mechanically stable over a long period of time was obtained. Next, in order to prove analyses results a side, literature survey was conducted about geological age, the dynamics history of a Smectite layer. The outline plan was drawn up about the natural analogue verification method and preliminary examination was performed about the applicability of Freezing Sampling'. (author)

  10. Preliminary Development of a Unified Viscoplastic Constitutive Model for Alloy 617 with Special Reference to Long Term Creep Behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sham, Sam; Walker, Kevin P.

    2008-01-01

    The expected service life of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant is 60 years. Structural analyses of the Intermediate Heat Exchanger (IHX) will require the development of unified viscoplastic constitutive models that address the material behavior of Alloy 617, a construction material of choice, over a wide range of strain rates. Many unified constitutive models employ a yield stress state variable which is used to account for cyclic hardening and softening of the material. For low stress values below the yield stress state variable these constitutive models predict that no inelastic deformation takes place which is contrary to experimental results. The ability to model creep deformation at low stresses for the IHX application is very important as the IHX operational stresses are restricted to very small values due to the low creep strengths at elevated temperatures and long design lifetime. This paper presents some preliminary work in modeling the unified viscoplastic constitutive behavior of Alloy 617 which accounts for the long term, low stress, creep behavior and the hysteretic behavior of the material at elevated temperatures. The preliminary model is presented in one-dimensional form for ease of understanding, but the intent of the present work is to produce a three-dimensional model suitable for inclusion in the user subroutines UMAT and USERPL of the ABAQUS and ANSYS nonlinear finite element codes. Further experiments and constitutive modeling efforts are planned to model the material behavior of Alloy 617 in more detail

  11. Behavioral cues to expand a pain model of the cognitively impaired elderly in long-term care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burfield AH

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Allison H Burfield,1 Thomas TH Wan,2 Mary Lou Sole,3 James W Cooper41School of Nursing, College of Health and Human Services, University of North Carolina-Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, 2Administration, and Medical Education, Doctoral Program in Public Affairs, College of Health and Public Affairs, 3College of Nursing, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, 4College of Pharmacy, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USABackground: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between hypothesized pain behaviors in the elderly and a measurement model of pain derived from the Minimum Data Set-Resident Assessment Instrument (MDS-RAI 2.0 items.Methods: This work included a longitudinal cohort recruited from Medicare-certified long-term care facilities across the United States. MDS data were collected from 52,996 residents (mean age 83.7 years. Structural equation modeling was used to build a measurement model of pain to test correlations between indicators and the fit of the model by cognitive status. The model evaluates the theoretical constructs of pain to improve how pain is assessed and detected within cognitive levels.Results: Using pain frequency and intensity as the only indicators of pain, the overall prevalence of pain was 31.2%; however, analysis by cognitive status showed that 47.7% of the intact group was in pain, while only 18.2% of the severely, 29.4% of the moderately, and 39.6% of the mildly cognitively impaired groups were experiencing pain. This finding supports previous research indicating that pain is potentially under-reported in severely cognitively impaired elderly nursing home residents. With adjustments to the measurement model, a revised format containing affective, behavioral, and inferred pain indicates a better fit of the data to include these domains, as a more complete measure of the pain construct.Conclusion: Pain has a significant effect on quality of life and long-term health outcomes in nursing home

  12. Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

    2015-03-01

    Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

  13. Short and Long Term Behavioral and Pathological Changes in a Novel Rodent Model of Repetitive Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly M McAteer

    Full Text Available A history of concussion, particularly repeated injury, has been linked to an increased risk for the development of neurodegenerative diseases, particularly chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE. CTE is characterized by abnormal accumulation of hyperphosphorylated tau and deficits in learning and memory. As yet the mechanisms associated with the development of CTE are unknown. Accordingly, the aim of the current study was to develop and characterize a novel model of repetitive mTBI that accurately reproduces the key short and long-term functional and histopathological features seen clinically. Forty male Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned to receive 0, 1 or 3x mTBI spaced five days apart using a modified version of the Marmarou impact-acceleration diffuse-TBI model to deliver 110G of linear force. Functional outcomes were assessed six and twelve weeks post-injury, with histopathology assessed twenty-four hours and twelve weeks post-injury. Repetitive mTBI resulted in mild spatial and recognition memory deficits as reflected by increased escape latency on the Barnes maze and decreased time spent in the novel arm of the Y maze. There was a trend towards increased anxiety-like behavior, with decreased time spent in the inner portion of the open field. At 24 hours and 12 weeks post injury, repetitive mTBI animals showed increased tau phosphorylation and microglial activation within the cortex. Increases in APP immunoreactivity were observed in repetitive mTBI animals at 12 weeks indicating long-term changes in axonal integrity. This novel model of repetitive mTBI with its persistent cognitive deficits, neuroinflammation, axonal injury and tau hyperphosphorylation, thus represents a clinically relevant experimental approach to further explore the underlying pathogenesis of CTE.

  14. Contribution and limits of geochemical calculation codes to evaluate the long term behavior of nuclear waste glasses; Apports et limites des modeles geochimiques pour l'evaluation du comportement a long terme des verres de confinement des dechets radioactifs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, B; Crovisier, J L [Universite Louis Pasteur, Centre de Geochimie de la Surface, CNRS ULP, Ecole et Observatoire des Sciences de la Terre, 67 - Strasbourg (France)

    1997-07-01

    Geochemical models have been intensively developed by researchers since more than twenty five years in order to be able to better understand and/or predict the long term stability/instability of water-rock systems. These geochemical codes were ail built first on a thermodynamic approach deriving from the application of Mass Action Law. The resulting first generation of models allowed to detect or predict the possible mass transfers (thermodynamic models) between aqueous and mineral phases including irreversible dissolutions of primary minerals and/or precipitation near equilibrium of secondary mineral phases. The recent development of models based on combined thermodynamics and kinetics opens the field of Lime dependent reactions prediction. This is crucial if one thinks to combine geochemical and hydrological studies in the so-called coupled models for transport and reaction calculations. All these models are progressively applied to the prediction of long term behavior of mineral phases, and more specifically glasses. In order to succeed in chat specific extension of the models, but also the data bases, there is a great need for additional new data from experimental approaches and from natural analogues. The modelling approach appears than also very useful in order to interpret the results of experimental data and to relate them to long term data extracted from natural analogues. Specific functions for modelling solid solution phases mat' also be used for describing the products of glasses alterations. (authors)

  15. Long term creep behavior of concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, T.W.

    1975-01-01

    This report presents the findings of an experimental investigation to evaluate the long term creep behavior of concrete subjected to sustained uniaxial loads for an extended period of time at 75 0 F. The factors investigated were (1) curing time (90, 183, and 365 days); (2) curing history (as-cast and air-dried); and (3) uniaxial stress (600 and 2400 psi). The experimental investigation applied uniaxial compressive loads to cylindrical concrete specimens and measured strains with vibrating wire strain gages that were cast in the concrete specimen along the axial and radial axes. Specimens cured for 90 days prior to loading were subjected to a sustained load for a period of one year, at which time the loads were removed; the specimens which were cured for 183 or 365 days, however, were not unloaded and have been under load for 5 and 4.5 years, respectively. The effect of each of the above factors on the instantaneous and creep behavior is discussed and the long term creep behavior of the specimens cured for 183 or 365 days is evaluated. The findings of these evaluations are summarized. (17 figures, 10 tables) (U.S.)

  16. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  17. Simulation of ultra-long term behavior in HLW near-field by centrifugal model test. Part 1. Development of centrifugal equipment and centrifuge model test method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimoto, Soshi; Okada, Tetsuji; Sawada, Masataka

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to develop a centrifugal equipment which can continuously be run for a long time and a model test method in order to evaluate a long term behavior which is a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in the high level wastes geological disposal repository and the neighborhood (called 'near-field'). The centrifugal equipment of CRIEPI, 'CENTURY5000-THM', developed in the present study is able to run continuously up to six months. Therefore, a long term behavior in the near-field can be simulated in a short term, for instance, the behavior for 5000 equivalent years can be simulated in six months by centrifugalizing 100 G using a 1/100 size model. We carried out a test using a nylon specimen in a centrifugal force field of 30 G and confirmed the operations of CENTURY5000-THM, control and measurement for 11 days. As the results, it was able to control the stress in the pressure vessel and measure the values of strain, temperature and pressure. And, as a result of scanning the small model of near-field including the metal overpack, bentonite buffer and rock by a medical X-rays CT scanner, the internal structure of the model was able to be evaluated when the metal artifact was reduced. From these results, the evaluation for a long term behavior of a disposal repository by the method of centrifugal model test became possible. (author)

  18. Application feasibility study of evaluation technology for long-term rock behavior. 2. Parameter setting of variable compliance type model and application feasibility study for rock behavior evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Shin; Noda, Masaru; Niunoya, Sumio; Hata, Koji; Matsui, Hiroya; Mikake, Shinichiro

    2012-01-01

    Creep phenomenon is one of the long-term rock behaviors. In many of rock-creep studies, model and parameter have been verified in 2D analysis using model parameter acquired by uniaxial compression test etc considering rock types. Therefore, in this study model parameter was set by uniaxial compression test with classified rock samples which were taken from pilot boring when the main shaft was constructed. Then, comparison between measured value and 3D excavation analysis with identified parameter was made. By and large, the study showed that validity of identification methodology of parameter to identify reproduction of measured value and analysis method. (author)

  19. Long-term behavior of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere – a model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Grygalashvyly

    2009-04-01

    of the upper atmosphere. The long-term behavior of water vapor is discussed in particular with respect to its impact on the NLC region.

  20. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  1. Long-Term Clock Behavior of GPS IIR Satellites

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Epstein, Marvin; Dass, Todd; Rajan, John; Gilmour, Paul

    2007-01-01

    .... Rubidium clocks, as opposed to cesium clocks, have significant long-term drift. The current literature describes an initial model of drift aging for rubidium atomic clocks followed by a long-term characteristic...

  2. Murine model of long term obstructive jaundice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A.; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-01-01

    Background With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of 3 murine models of obstructive jaundice. Methods C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Results 70% (7/10) of tCL mice died by Day 7, whereas majority 67% (10/15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. 19% (3/16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond Day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 days after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by Day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension as well as severe fibrosis by Day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. Conclusion The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice but long term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. PMID:27916350

  3. On the very long term delayed behavior of concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torrenti, J.M.; Benboudjema, F.; Barre, F.; Gallitre, E.

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of very long-term deformation of prestressed concrete structures is a major challenge considering the service life of these structures. It is therefore necessary to correctly model the delayed behavior of these structures. Using a review of laboratory tests and observations of the delayed behavior of structures (bridges and nuclear power plants), the main conclusions of this work are the following ones. First, very long term creep in laboratory or of real structures seems to be non asymptotic. In the actual Eurocode-2, creep is calculated by means of an asymptotic hyperbolic function while in the recent Model Code 2010 creep is expressed as a combination of an asymptotic and a logarithmic functions. In the latter case the logarithmic function corresponds to basic creep while drying creep is asymptotic. Secondly, using a long test (3 years) in a laboratory is not enough to assess the long term behaviour of a massive structure. We need physical relations for creep in codes in order to predict the delayed behavior of massive structures. Thirdly, the biaxial creep of nuclear power plant could be modelled but using data of the structure itself. This would allow to predict the delayed behavior of these structures. Further work is needed to improve the prediction in the design phase

  4. Modeling context-sensitive, dynamic activity travel behavior by linking short-and long-term responses to accumulated stress

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Psarra, I.; Liao, F.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    As existing activity-based models of travel demand simulate activity travel patterns for a typical day, dynamic models simulate behavioral response to endogenous or exogenous change along various time horizons. Prior research predominantly addressed a specific kind of change, which usually affected

  5. Long-term bedrock behavior research for soft rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Hiroyuki; Noda, Kenji

    2002-02-01

    When a formation disposal system is thought about, it is important to evaluate long-term dynamics behavior of boundary condition and near field bedrock of an artificial barrier adequately. In this study, three matters were executed for improvement of a dependability of the evaluation as follows. (1) Creep test was executed as purpose by dependability improvement of evaluation technique of creep problem by Okubo model. Okubo model constant was calculated than the unconfined compression test which let strain rate change with true rock, and the creep test which the constant was used, and estimated breaking time was done. As a result, the estimation of breaking time by Okubo model almost suffered according to the estimation although a variation of test-piece influenced it. (2) A tunnel model apparatus was produced in the purpose which grasped near field bedrock behavior, and it was tested. Simulation rock test body of 1 m * 1 m * 0.5 m was used for a test, and 15 cm tunnel excavation was carried out in an initial stress bottom. Quantities of inner space displacement were measured in a test, and a hardness-test was done after dismantlement, and looseness area was grasped quantitatively. As a result, the looseness area was able to be estimated with about 17.5 cm than tunnel center position. (3) A test approach in deep underground laboratory was examined, and examination/the in situ test which took advantage of rock core analysis/borehole as purpose and done examination item by grip of long-term bedrock behavior (a bord is taken advantage of, and bord itself is used) was shown. In addition, layout of the deep underground laboratory which carried out various tests about long-term behavior in 3 depth was shown. (author)

  6. A Framework for Estimating Long Term Driver Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay Gadepally

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a framework for estimation of long term driver behavior for autonomous vehicles and vehicle safety systems. The Hybrid State System and Hidden Markov Model (HSS+HMM system discussed in this article is capable of describing the hybrid characteristics of driver and vehicle coupling. In our model, driving observations follow a continuous trajectory that can be measured to create continuous state estimates. These continuous state estimates can then be used to estimate the most likely driver state using decision-behavior coupling inherent to the HSS+HMM system. The HSS+HMM system is encompassed in a HSS structure and intersystem connectivity is determined by using signal processing and pattern recognition techniques. The proposed method is suitable for a number of autonomous and vehicle safety scenarios such as estimating intent of other vehicles near intersections or avoiding hazardous driving events such as unexpected lane changes. The long term driver behavior estimation system involves an extended HSS+HMM structure that is capable of including external information in the estimation process. Through the grafting and pruning of metastates, the HSS+HMM system can be dynamically updated to best represent driver choices given external information. Three application examples are also provided to elucidate the theoretical system.

  7. Long-term habituation (LTH in the crab Chasmagnathus: a model for behavioral and mechanistic studies of memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Maldonado

    1997-07-01

    Full Text Available A decade of studies on long-term habituation (LTH in the crab Chasmagnathus is reviewed. Upon sudden presentation of a passing object overhead, the crab reacts with an escape response that habituates promptly and for at least five days. LTH proved to be an instance of associative memory and showed context, stimulus frequency and circadian phase specificity. A strong training protocol (STP (³15 trials, intertrial interval (ITI of 171 s invariably yielded LTH, while a weak training protocol (WTP (£10 trials, ITI = 171 s invariably failed. STP was used with a presumably amnestic agent and WTP with a presumably hypermnestic agent. Remarkably, systemic administration of low doses was effective, which is likely to be due to the lack of an endothelial blood-brain barrier. LTH was blocked by inhibitors of protein and RNA synthesis, enhanced by protein kinase A (PKA activators and reduced by PKA inhibitors, facilitated by angiotensin II and IV and disrupted by saralasin. The presence of angiotensins and related compounds in the crab brain was demonstrated. Diverse results suggest that LTH includes two components: an initial memory produced by spaced training and mainly expressed at an initial phase of testing, and a retraining memory produced by massed training and expressed at a later phase of testing (retraining. The initial memory would be associative, context specific and sensitive to cycloheximide, while the retraining memory would be nonassociative, context independent and insensitive to cycloheximide

  8. Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term behavior of buffer. Document prepared by other institute, based on the trust contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Takaji, Kazuhiko

    2002-02-01

    On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the external force is affected to buffer for a long period of time. So, it is necessary to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer to the external force, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, the applicable constitutive model have been narrowed down from within many one for clay proposed up to the present, from the viewpoint of adoption possibility to the evaluation of the long-term mechanical behavior for buffer. To put it concretely, the investigation of constitutive models for clay, the applicability confirmation of the representative model by analysis using test data, and the proposal of experimental method available for simulation analysis is carried out. The results of the elemental test simulations using Adachi-Oka model and Sekiguchi-Ohta model as the representative model of ''Over stress model'' and Flow surface model'' are as follows. Both of the models are not make much difference. A limited part of the test results is expressed suitably according to the appropriate decision of viscous parameters, but the blanket behavior of each tests is not expressed suitably in either model. (author)

  9. Chronic social defeat induces long-term behavioral depression of aggressive motivation in an invertebrate model system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Jacqueline; Rillich, Jan; Stevenson, Paul A

    2017-01-01

    Losing a fight against a conspecific male (social defeat) induces a period of suppressed aggressiveness and general behaviour, often with symptoms common to human psychiatric disorders. Agonistic experience is also discussed as a potential cause of consistent, behavioral differences between individuals (animal "personality"). In non-mammals, however, the impact of single agonistic encounters typically last only hours, but then again studies of repeated intermittent defeat (chronic social defeat) are seldom. We report the effect of chronic social defeat in adult male crickets (Gryllus bimaculatus), for which all known behavioral effects of defeat last only 3 h. Firstly, after 48 h social isolation, crickets that experienced 5 defeats at 24 h intervals against the same, weight-matched opponent exhibited suppressed aggressiveness lasting >24 h, which was still evident when the animals were matched against an unfamiliar opponent at the last trial. Secondly, this longer-term depression of aggression also occurred in 48 h isolated crickets that lost 6 fights at 1 h intervals against unfamiliar opponents at each trial. Thirdly, crickets isolated as larvae until adult maturity (>16 days) were significantly more aggressive, and less variable in their aggressiveness at their very first fight than 48 h isolates, and also significantly more resilient to the effects of chronic social defeat. We conclude that losing an aggressive encounter in crickets has a residual effect, lasting at least 24 h, that accumulates when repeated defeats are experienced, and leads to a prolonged depression of aggressive motivation in subordinates. Furthermore, our data indicate that social interactions between young adults and possibly larvae can have even longer, possibly lifelong influences on subsequent behavior. Social subjugation is thus likely to be a prime determinant of inter-individual behavioral differences in crickets. Our work also opens new avenues for investigating proximate

  10. Simulation of long-term dynamic behavior of runaway electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yulei; Liu Jian; Zhang Ruili; He Yang

    2015-01-01

    The secular dynamics of runaway electrons in Tokamak electromagnetic field is studied. The radiation effect is added into a relativistic volume-preserving algorithm to gain long-term stability of calculation. The results shows that the method we used is able to reveal the behavior of a runaway electron in configuration space. (author)

  11. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    2002-03-01

    Micro-structure of rock plays a essential role for their long-term behavior. For elucidating long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (LSM) observation of joint surfaces of granite and Fourier analysis, 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, 3) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by LSM under uniaxial compression, and 4) a viscoelastic homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. Rock image processing and analysis become a fundamental procedure to determine rock surface discontinuities. But the complexity of rock surface discontinuities seems beyond the manual image processing method. In Chapter 2 a Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope that can acquire three-dimensional images is introduced to observe the rock roughness of a discontinuity. Then, scanning three-dimensional images are changed its data form in order to adapt various image analysis programs, and granitic rock roughness of discontinuities are displayed by graphic images. For example, these datas are analyzed by Discrete Fourier Transformation (DFT) program and Inverse Discrete Fourier Transformation (IDFT) program. Microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock. In Chapter 3 a progressive development of cracking in granite is revealed by using stereoscopic microscope under triaxial compression condition and by using LSM under uniaxial compression condition. With a viscoelastic theory applied in homogenization method, we can calculate macro behavior of medium influenced by its micro structure by analyse the long-term time-dependent behavior of granite under the same condition to the relaxation experiment. (author)

  12. Accumulation and long term behavior of radiocesium in tropical plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anjos, R.M.; Carvalho, C.; Mosquera, B.; Macario, K.; Veiga, R.; Sanches, N.; Bastos, J.; Saavedra, R.; Iguatemy, M.

    2006-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the evaluation of nutrient fluxes and radioactive contaminants in forest and agricultural ecosystems. Several studies on forest ecosystems have been carried out, mostly in Europe, after the Chernobyl accident. Japanese forest sites and native plant species of the Marshall Islands have also been extensively investigated. These studies have been used for various purposes, including the development of models for predicting plant concentrations from soil concentration measurements or the long term of dietary contamination by radiocesium following a fallout nuclear. Cesium is an alkali metal just like potassium and its behavior in nature, as well as in the human body, is similar to that of potassium. Uptake of 137 Cs from contaminated soil represents a significant pathway of human radiation exposure, either due to the direct consumption of cereals, fruits and vegetables or, indirectly, following consumption of milk and meat from animals fed on contaminated vegetable matter. The decline of 137 Cs levels as function of time of fruit trees is of interest given its long life in the field. Therefore, the cesium behavior is important in the design of management strategies to mitigate any negative health effects of radioactivity on the environment. It is also important to apply the current knowledge of the transport and distribution of salts derived from forest ecosystems in agricultural ecosystems, especially for tropical fruit trees. So far, in the South hemisphere there have been only a few studies on this subject, without conclusive results. With this aim, the Laboratory of Radioecology (L.A.R.A.) of the 'Universidade Federal Fluminense' has been performing analyzes of 137 Cs and 40 K concentrations in several tropical plants (guava, mango, avocado, pomegranate, papaya, manioc and chili pepper trees) in order to determine the accumulation of these radionuclides throughout these trees

  13. Accumulation and long term behavior of radiocesium in tropical plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anjos, R.M.; Carvalho, C.; Mosquera, B.; Macario, K.; Veiga, R.; Sanches, N.; Bastos, J.; Saavedra, R.; Iguatemy, M. [Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi (Brazil)

    2006-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the evaluation of nutrient fluxes and radioactive contaminants in forest and agricultural ecosystems. Several studies on forest ecosystems have been carried out, mostly in Europe, after the Chernobyl accident. Japanese forest sites and native plant species of the Marshall Islands have also been extensively investigated. These studies have been used for various purposes, including the development of models for predicting plant concentrations from soil concentration measurements or the long term of dietary contamination by radiocesium following a fallout nuclear. Cesium is an alkali metal just like potassium and its behavior in nature, as well as in the human body, is similar to that of potassium. Uptake of 137 Cs from contaminated soil represents a significant pathway of human radiation exposure, either due to the direct consumption of cereals, fruits and vegetables or, indirectly, following consumption of milk and meat from animals fed on contaminated vegetable matter. The decline of 137 Cs levels as function of time of fruit trees is of interest given its long life in the field. Therefore, the cesium behavior is important in the design of management strategies to mitigate any negative health effects of radioactivity on the environment. It is also important to apply the current knowledge of the transport and distribution of salts derived from forest ecosystems in agricultural ecosystems, especially for tropical fruit trees. So far, in the South hemisphere there have been only a few studies on this subject, without conclusive results. With this aim, the Laboratory of Radioecology (L.A.R.A.) of the Universidade Federal Fluminense has been performing analyzes of 137 Cs and 40 K concentrations in several tropical plants (guava, mango, avocado, pomegranate, papaya, manioc and chili pepper trees) in order to determine the accumulation of these radionuclides throughout these trees and

  14. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    2004-02-01

    Micro-structure of rock plays an essential role for their long-term behavior. For understanding long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by Conforcal Laser Scanning Microscope (CLSM) under uniaxial compression (before loading and at each loading stage), 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, and 3) a study of strong discontinuity analysis included in the homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. First, CLSM was used to acquire clearly focused three-dimensional images of granite specimens, and observed the change of microscale structure including the mineral configuration under applying uniaxial compression stress. Then though microcracks have ever thought to be initiated and propagated on intergranular boundaries, we understand through the CLSM observation that new microcracks are generated from the ends of pre-existing cracks which are distributed in quartz and biotite. Second, we showed the results of stress-relaxation test of granite specimens observed by an optical microscope under water-saturated triaxial compression condition. Since microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock, we managed the experiments with careful attention of 1) keeping constant edge-displacement and constant strain in the whole specimen accurately, and 2) measuring the relaxed stress exactly. Next, in order to simulate the experimental results which indicate that initiation and propagation of microcracks control the stress-relaxation phenomenon, we introduce a homogenization analysis procedure together with the strong discontinuity analysis which has recently established the mechanical implication and mathematical foundation. The numerical results show that we can

  15. Optogenetic long-term manipulation of behavior and animal development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Schultheis

    Full Text Available Channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2 is widely used for rapid photodepolarization of neurons, yet, as it requires high-intensity blue light for activation, it is not suited for long-term in vivo applications, e.g. for manipulations of behavior, or photoactivation of neurons during development. We used "slow" ChR2 variants with mutations in the C128 residue, that exhibit delayed off-kinetics and increased light sensitivity in Caenorhabditis elegans. Following a 1 s light pulse, we could photodepolarize neurons and muscles for minutes (and with repeated brief stimulation, up to days with low-intensity light. Photoactivation of ChR2(C128S in command interneurons elicited long-lasting alterations in locomotion. Finally, we could optically induce profound changes in animal development: Long-term photoactivation of ASJ neurons, which regulate larval growth, bypassed the constitutive entry into the "dauer" larval state in daf-11 mutants. These lack a guanylyl cyclase, which possibly renders ASJ neurons hyperpolarized. Furthermore, photostimulated ASJ neurons could acutely trigger dauer-exit. Thus, slow ChR2s can be employed to long-term photoactivate behavior and to trigger alternative animal development.

  16. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  17. Long-term Behavior of Hydrocarbon Production Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovell, A.; Karra, S.; O'Malley, D.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Srinivasan, G.

    2017-12-01

    Recovering hydrocarbons (such as natural gas) from naturally-occurring formations with low permeability has had a huge impact on the energy sector, however, recovery rates are low due to poor understanding of recovery and transport mechanisms [1]. The physical mechanisms that control the production of hydrocarbon are only partially understood. Calculations have shown that the short-term behavior in the peak of the production curve is understood to come from the free hydrocarbons in the fracture networks, but the long-term behavior of these curves is often underpredicted [2]. This behavior is thought to be due to small scale processes - such as matrix diffusion, desorption, and connectivity in the damage region around the large fracture network. In this work, we explore some of these small-scale processes using discrete fracture networks (DFN) and the toolkit dfnWorks [3], the matrix diffusion, size of the damage region, and distribution of free gas between the fracture networks and rock matrix. Individual and combined parameter spaces are explored, and comparisons of the resulting production curves are made to experimental site data from the Haynesville formation [4]. We find that matrix diffusion significantly controls the shape of the tail of the production curve, while the distribution of free gas impacts the relative magnitude of the peak to the tail. The height of the damage region has no effect on the shape of the tail. Understanding the constrains of the parameter space based on site data is the first step in rigorously quantifying the uncertainties coming from these types of systems, which can in turn optimize and improve hydrocarbon recovery. [1] C. McGlade, et. al., (2013) Methods of estimating shale gas resources - comparison, evaluation, and implications, Energy, 59, 116-125 [2] S. Karra, et. al., (2015) Effect of advective flow in fractures and matrix diffusion on natural gas production, Water Resources Research, 51(10), 8646-8657 [3] J.D. Hyman, et

  18. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    1997-03-01

    One must consider micro-structures of rock and rock mass in order to predict the long-term behavior for more than ten thousand years. First we observe the micro-crack distribution of granite which is commonly distributed in Japan, and is widely used for several structures. The creep under constant load and the relaxation under constant displacement are typical time dependent phenomena, and we performed a series of relaxation tests under microscope observation in laboratory. The specimen that is preserved in water is granite as mentioned above. The aim of this experiment is to observe the sequential propagation of micro-cracks and its affect to the macroscopic response of the rock material under relaxation state. Next, a viscoelastic homogenization method is applied for analyzing the behavior of granite that is composed of several kinds of minerals (i.e., a polycrystalline material). The homogenization method developed for analyzing mechanics of composite materials is a mathematical theory that can describe the macroscopic behavior accounting for the microscopic characteristics with periodic microstructures. In this study, it is applied to a polycrystalline rock which involves a few minerals and micro-cracks. Furthermore, it is required to apply the homogenization analysis for rock materials which show a nonlinear time dependent behavior, so we develop a new elasto-visco-plastic homogenization theory, and its validity is checked for some ground structures made by clay. (author)

  19. The WECHSL-Mod3 code: A computer program for the interaction of a core melt with concrete including the long term behavior. Model description and user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foit, J.J.; Adroguer, B.; Cenerino, G.; Stiefel, S.

    1995-02-01

    The WECHSL-Mod3 code is a mechanistic computer code developed for the analysis of the thermal and chemical interaction of initially molten reactor materials with concrete in a two-dimensional as well as in a one-dimensional, axisymmetrical concrete cavity. The code performs calculations from the time of initial contact of a hot molten pool over start of solidification processes until long term basemat erosion over several days with the possibility of basemat penetration. It is assumed that an underlying metallic layer exists covered by an oxidic layer or that only one oxidic layer is present which can contain a homogeneously dispersed metallic phase. Heat generation in the melt is by decay heat and chemical reactions from metal oxidation. Energy is lost to the melting concrete and to the upper containment by radiation or evaporation of sumpwater possibly flooding the surface of the melt. Thermodynamic and transport properties as well as criteria for heat transfer and solidification processes are internally calculated for each time step. Heat transfer is modelled taking into account the high gas flux from the decomposing concrete and the heat conduction in the crusts possibly forming in the long term at the melt/concrete interface. The CALTHER code (developed at CEA, France) which models the radiative heat transfer from the upper surface of the corium melt to the surrounding cavity is implemented in the present WECHSL version. The WECHSL code in its present version was validated by the BETA, ACE and SURC experiments. The test samples include a BETA and the SURC2 post test calculations and a WECHSL application to a reactor accident. (orig.) [de

  20. Applying Psychological Theories to Promote Long-Term Maintenance of Health Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Rodney P.; Daniel, Casey L.; Thind, Herpreet; Benitez, Tanya J.; Pekmezi, Dori

    2014-01-01

    Behavioral health theory provides a framework for researchers to design, implement, and evaluate the effects of health promotion programs. However, limited research has examined theories used in interventions to promote long-term maintenance of health behaviors. The purpose of this review was to evaluate the available literature and identify prominent behavioral health theories used in intervention research to promote maintenance of health behaviors. We reviewed theories used in intervention research assessing long-term maintenance (≥ 6 months post-intervention) of physical activity, weight loss, and smoking cessation. Five prominent behavioral theories were referenced by the 34 studies included in the review: Self-Determination Theory, Theory of Planned Behavior, Social Cognitive Theory, Transtheoretical Model, and Social Ecological Model. Descriptions and examples of applications of these theories are provided. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:28217036

  1. Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Nano Silica Sol Grouting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongjiang Pan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The longevity of grouting has a significant effect on the safe and sustainable operation of many engineering projects. A 500-day experiment was carried out to study the long-term mechanical behavior of nano silica sol grouting. The nano silica sol was activated with different proportions of a NaCl catalyst and cured under fluctuating temperature and humidity conditions. The mechanical parameters of the grout samples were tested using an electrohydraulic uniaxial compression tester and an improved Vicat instrument. Scanning electron microscope, X-ray diffraction, and ultrasonic velocity tests were carried out to analyze the strength change micro-mechanism. Tests showed that as the catalyst dosage in the grout mix is decreased, the curves on the graphs showing changes in the weight and geometric parameters of the samples over time could be divided into three stages, a shrinkage stage, a stable stage, and a second shrinkage stage. The catalyst improved the stability of the samples and reduced moisture loss. Temperature rise was also a driving force for moisture loss. Uniaxial compressive stress-strain curves for all of the samples were elastoplastic. The curves for uniaxial compression strength and secant modulus plotted against time could be divided into three stages. Sample brittleness increased with time and the brittleness index increased with higher catalyst dosages in the latter part of the curing time. Plastic strength-time curves exhibit allometric scaling. Curing conditions mainly affect the compactness, and then affect the strength.

  2. Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Nano Silica Sol Grouting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nong; Zhang, Chenghao; Qian, Deyu; Han, Changliang; Yang, Sen

    2018-01-01

    The longevity of grouting has a significant effect on the safe and sustainable operation of many engineering projects. A 500-day experiment was carried out to study the long-term mechanical behavior of nano silica sol grouting. The nano silica sol was activated with different proportions of a NaCl catalyst and cured under fluctuating temperature and humidity conditions. The mechanical parameters of the grout samples were tested using an electrohydraulic uniaxial compression tester and an improved Vicat instrument. Scanning electron microscope, X-ray diffraction, and ultrasonic velocity tests were carried out to analyze the strength change micro-mechanism. Tests showed that as the catalyst dosage in the grout mix is decreased, the curves on the graphs showing changes in the weight and geometric parameters of the samples over time could be divided into three stages, a shrinkage stage, a stable stage, and a second shrinkage stage. The catalyst improved the stability of the samples and reduced moisture loss. Temperature rise was also a driving force for moisture loss. Uniaxial compressive stress-strain curves for all of the samples were elastoplastic. The curves for uniaxial compression strength and secant modulus plotted against time could be divided into three stages. Sample brittleness increased with time and the brittleness index increased with higher catalyst dosages in the latter part of the curing time. Plastic strength-time curves exhibit allometric scaling. Curing conditions mainly affect the compactness, and then affect the strength. PMID:29337897

  3. Long-term behavior of glass-ceramic zirconolite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Ch.

    2003-01-01

    This work is a part of the investigation of new containment matrices considered for specific conditioning of radionuclides after separation. The aim was to demonstrate the long-term aqueous corrosion resistance of the glass-ceramic zirconolite considered for the conditioning of plutonium and the minor actinides. This material is composed of crystals of zirconolite (CaZrTi 2 O 7 ) dispersed in a residual vitreous phase. It appears that glass-ceramic zirconolite presents a better kinetic behavior than the nuclear glass R 7T7. This is mainly due to a more important rate decrease that occurs more rapidly, that induces a quantity of glass altered at least 10 times as small as for R 7T7 glass. This high slowdown of the alteration rate is attributed to the formation of an alteration film that has been the subject of a specific study. We have demonstrated that the rate decrease was controlled as for the R7T7 glass by the amorphous phase of the alteration film forming a diffusion barrier for reactive species. It seems that the porosity is not the single parameter that explains the protective effect of the gel. The main differences compared with R7T7 glass are that silicon does not control the alteration of the material and that the gel is composed of two distinct phases. We have in particular identified a dense phase enriched in titanium and neodymium that probably influences deeply the kinetics. (author)

  4. The effects of a self-efficacy intervention on exercise behavior of fitness club members in 52 weeks and long-term relationships of transtheoretical model constructs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Middelkamp, J.; Rooijen, M. Van; Wolfhagen, P.; Steenbergen, B.

    2017-01-01

    The transtheoretical model of behavior change (TTM) is often used to understand changes in health-related behavior, like exercise. Exercise behavior in fitness clubs is an understudied topic, but preliminary studies showed low frequencies and large numbers of drop-out. An initial 12-week

  5. Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Studies of periglacial processes usually focus on small-scale, isolated phenomena, leaving less explored questions of how such processes shape vast areas of Earth’s surface. Here we use numerical surface process modelling to better understand how periglacial processes drive large-scale, long-term...

  6. Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renyi Cao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

  7. Long-term behavior of domestic waste slags

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombel, Pascale

    1996-01-01

    Vitrification is one of the envisaged solutions to face French legal requirements related to the solidification/stabilisation of some wastes. It results in glassy or crystallized aluminosilicate and calcium-rich materials which trap heavy metals notably contained by the ashes of purification residues from incineration smokes of domestic wastes. This research thesis addresses the study of the long term behaviour of such materials in order to check that toxic compounds they contain will not be released in the environment so that these materials can become common and even valorised. Four vitrified products have been studied. It appeared that their alteration mechanisms in aqueous phase are close to that of already known natural and artificial silicate materials. Alteration rates depend on material composition and structure on the one hand, and on solution temperature, pH, composition and renewal rate on the other hand. The influence of surrounding materials is also taken into account within the frame of a scenario of use in road construction. Modelling studies are also performed and it appears that the containment of toxic elements contained in vitrified products obtained from domestic waste is sustainable [fr

  8. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  9. PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

  10. Murine model of long-term obstructive jaundice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Hiroaki; Aoki, Masayo; Yang, Jing; Katsuta, Eriko; Mukhopadhyay, Partha; Ramanathan, Rajesh; Woelfel, Ingrid A; Wang, Xuan; Spiegel, Sarah; Zhou, Huiping; Takabe, Kazuaki

    2016-11-01

    With the recent emergence of conjugated bile acids as signaling molecules in cancer, a murine model of obstructive jaundice by cholestasis with long-term survival is in need. Here, we investigated the characteristics of three murine models of obstructive jaundice. C57BL/6J mice were used for total ligation of the common bile duct (tCL), partial common bile duct ligation (pCL), and ligation of left and median hepatic bile duct with gallbladder removal (LMHL) models. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier method. Fibrotic change was determined by Masson-Trichrome staining and Collagen expression. Overall, 70% (7 of 10) of tCL mice died by day 7, whereas majority 67% (10 of 15) of pCL mice survived with loss of jaundice. A total of 19% (3 of 16) of LMHL mice died; however, jaundice continued beyond day 14, with survival of more than a month. Compensatory enlargement of the right lobe was observed in both pCL and LMHL models. The pCL model demonstrated acute inflammation due to obstructive jaundice 3 d after ligation but jaundice rapidly decreased by day 7. The LHML group developed portal hypertension and severe fibrosis by day 14 in addition to prolonged jaundice. The standard tCL model is too unstable with high mortality for long-term studies. pCL may be an appropriate model for acute inflammation with obstructive jaundice, but long-term survivors are no longer jaundiced. The LHML model was identified to be the most feasible model to study the effect of long-term obstructive jaundice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Achdou , Yves; Giraud , Pierre-Noel; Lasry , Jean-Michel; Lions , Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    International audience; A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is descr...

  12. Multimethod Behavioral Treatment of Long-Term Selective Mutism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, T. Steuart; Kramer, Jack J.

    1992-01-01

    Conducted single-subject, experimental research to examine efficacy of treating severe, long-term selective mutism in nine-year-old male using shaping, multiple reinforcers, natural consequences, stimulus fading, and mild aversives. Implemented different treatment regimens in home and school environments. Home intervention resulted in increase in…

  13. 3D Holographic Observatory for Long-term Monitoring of Complex Behaviors in Drosophila

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S. Santosh; Sun, Yaning; Zou, Sige; Hong, Jiarong

    2016-09-01

    Drosophila is an excellent model organism towards understanding the cognitive function, aging and neurodegeneration in humans. The effects of aging and other long-term dynamics on the behavior serve as important biomarkers in identifying such changes to the brain. In this regard, we are presenting a new imaging technique for lifetime monitoring of Drosophila in 3D at spatial and temporal resolutions capable of resolving the motion of limbs and wings using holographic principles. The developed system is capable of monitoring and extracting various behavioral parameters, such as ethograms and spatial distributions, from a group of flies simultaneously. This technique can image complicated leg and wing motions of flies at a resolution, which allows capturing specific landing responses from the same data set. Overall, this system provides a unique opportunity for high throughput screenings of behavioral changes in 3D over a long term in Drosophila.

  14. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  15. Modeling flood events for long-term stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schruben, T.; Portillo, R.

    1985-01-01

    The primary objective for the disposal of uranium mill tailings in the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is isolation and stabilization to prevent their misuse by man and dispersal by natural forces such as wind, rain, and flood waters (40 CFR-192). Stabilization of sites that are located in or near flood plains presents unique problems in design for long-term performance. This paper discusses the process involved with the selection and hydrologic modeling of the design flood event; and hydraulic modeling with geomorphic considerations of the design flood event. The Gunnison, Colorado, and Riverton, Wyoming, sites will be used as examples in describing the process

  16. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  17. Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel; Lunde, Asger; Pakkanen, Mikko

    behavior) from long memory and persistence (long-term behavior) in a simple and parsimonious way, which allows us to successfully model volatility at all intraday time scales. Our prime model is based on the so-called Brownian semistationary process and we derive a number of theoretical properties...... measures of close to two thousand individual US equities, we find that both roughness and persistence appear to be universal properties of volatility. Inspired by the empirical findings, we introduce a new class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models, capable of decoupling roughness (short-term...

  18. Study on crystalline rock for evaluating method of long-term behavior. FY2012 (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, Katsunori; Hashiba, Kimihiro; Tanno, Takeo; Hikima, Ryoichi; Sanada, Hiroyuki; Sato, Toshinori

    2013-12-01

    Rock shows time-dependent behavior such as creep/relaxation. With respect to high-level radioactive waste disposal, knowledge of the long-term mechanical stability of shafts and galleries excavated in rock are required, over a period of thousands of years after closure as well as during construction and operation. Therefore, it is very important to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. The purpose of this study is to determine the mechanisms of time-dependent behavior of rock by the precise test (e.g. laboratory creep test), observation and measurement and to develop methods for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. In previous works, testing techniques were established and basic evaluation methods were developed. Recently, some parameters, which required for simulation of time-dependent behavior, were determined for the modeling of biotite granite (Toki granite) distributed around the Mizunami underground research laboratory. However, we were not able to obtain enough data to assess the reliability of the method to evaluate these parameters. This report describes the results of the research activities carried out in fiscal year 2012. In Chapter 1, we provide background and an overview of this study. In Chapter 2, the results of a long-term creep test on Tage tuff, started in fiscal year 1997, are described. In Chapter 3, the experimental results concerning the loading-rate dependency of rock strength were examined to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock. In Chapter 4, the stability of tunnels, under conditions which rock stress is larger than that around a circular tunnel, were examined to obtain useful information on the future plan for in-situ tests in the underground research laboratory. (author)

  19. Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne [Service de la Corrosion et du Comportement des Materiaux dans leur Environnement, CEA/Saclay - 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel [CIRIMAT UMR 5085, ENSIACET-INPT, 31077 Toulouse Cedex 4 (France)

    2004-07-01

    For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

  20. Model for low temperature oxidation during long term interim storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desgranges, Clara; Bertrand, Nathalie; Gauvain, Danielle; Terlain, Anne; Poquillon, Dominique; Monceau, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    For high-level nuclear waste containers in long-term interim storage, dry oxidation will be the first and the main degradation mode during about one century. The metal lost by dry oxidation over such a long period must be evaluated with a good reliability. To achieve this goal, modelling of the oxide scale growth is necessary and this is the aim of the dry oxidation studies performed in the frame of the COCON program. An advanced model based on the description of elementary mechanisms involved in scale growth at low temperatures, like partial interfacial control of the oxidation kinetics and/or grain boundary diffusion, is developed in order to increase the reliability of the long term extrapolations deduced from basic models developed from short time experiments. Since only few experimental data on dry oxidation are available in the temperature range of interest, experiments have also been performed to evaluate the relevant input parameters for models like grain size of oxide scale, considering iron as simplified material. (authors)

  1. Long term strain behavior of PMMA based polymer optical fibers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bundalo, Ivan-Lazar; Nielsen, Kristian; Woyessa, Getinet

    2015-01-01

    We are reporting on the viscoelasticity of PMMA based Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) strain sensors when exposed to repeated sequences of long term strain and relaxation with various duty-cycles. In terms of the FBG wavelength and how it follows the strain cycle, we have shown that in the small strain...... regime (up to 1%) an elastic-dominated fast relaxing range, which is followed by a mainly viscous relaxation, depends both on the strain level and on the strain duration. For a small ratio of the strain-relax durations, this fast relaxation range stays almost the same. However, with increasing strain...... duration, for the same relaxation time, this range will be shortened, which might influence the sensing capabilities of the fiber sensor....

  2. Study on long-term behavior of weak rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okubo, Seisuke

    2003-03-01

    Using the boring core obtained in the Horonobe region, the beta in triaxial compression stress state was acquired, and the examination was carried out on the effect of the confirming pressure on long-term deformation or stability of the sample rock. At first, triaxial compression tests were carried out. In the test, loading rate (strain rate) was changed several times to obtain viscoelastic properties of the sample rock. Multi-stage creep tests were also performed in triaxial compression stress. The parameter set of a constitutive equation of variable compliance type was obtained based on the testing results. In this study, a transparent triaxial cell recently developed by this author was used. The external cylinder of this vessel was made of the transparent acrylic resin. Therefore, gradual deformation of the sample under testing was easily and clearly observed. (author)

  3. Examination of constitutive model for evaluating long-term mechanical behavior of buffer (II). Document prepared by other organization, based on the trust contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Namikawa, Tsutomu; Takaji, Kazuhiko

    2003-02-01

    On the R and D of the high-level radioactive waste repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining each ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the various external forces will be affected to buffer intricately for a long period of time. So, to make clear the mechanical deformation behavior of buffer against the external force is important, because of carrying out safety assessment of EBS accurately. In this report, reversal sets of parameters are chosen for the previously selected constitutive models, Sekiguchi-Ohta model and Adachi-Oka model and the element tests are simulated using these parameters. Through the simulation, applicability of the constitutive models and these parameters is examined. Using these parameters, sensitivity analysis of prototype EBS model is also done. Analysis is carried out with two cases. 1: Settlement of the over with no corrosion expansion. 2: Settlement of the over pack with corrosion expansion. The results of the analysis area as follows. Settlement by the weight is mainly affected by the viscous parameters. The whole destruction of the EBS does not occur with any set of applicable parameters. Viscous parameters are important to evaluate the effect of the over pack expansion on surrounding rocks. (author)

  4. Modelling of long term nitrogen retention in surface waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halbfaß, S.; Gebel, M.; Bürger, S.

    2010-12-01

    In order to derive measures to reduce nutrient loadings into waters in Saxony, we calculated nitrogen inputs with the model STOFFBILANZ on the regional scale. Thereby we have to compare our modelling results to measured loadings at the river basin outlets, considering long term nutrient retention in surface waters. The most important mechanism of nitrogen retention is the denitrification in the contact zone of water and sediment, being controlled by hydraulic and micro-biological processes. Retention capacity is derived on the basis of the nutrient spiralling concept, using water residence time (hydraulic aspect) and time-specific N-uptake by microorganisms (biological aspect). Short time related processes of mobilization and immobilization are neglected, because they are of minor importance for the derivation of measures on the regional scale.

  5. The MDS challenging behavior profile for long-term care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerritsen, D. L.; Achterberg, W. P.; Steverink, N.; Frijters, D. H. M.; Ribbe, M. W.

    2008-01-01

    The objective was to construct a reliable and valid challenging behavior scale with items from the Minimum Data Set (MDS). Exploratory factor analyses of a sample of 656 nursing home residents yielded a 16-item Behavior Profile containing four internally consistent and valid subscales measuring

  6. Long-term deficiency of circulating and hippocampal insulin-like growth factor I induces depressive behavior in adult mice: A potential model of geriatric depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitschelen, Matthew; Yan, Han; Farley, Julie A.; Warrington, Junie P.; Han, Song; Hereñú, Claudia B.; Csiszar, Anna; Ungvari, Zoltan; Bailey-Downs, Lora C.; Bass, Caroline E.; Sonntag, William E.

    2011-01-01

    Numerous studies support the hypothesis that deficiency of insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-1) in adults contributes to depression, but direct evidence is limited. Many psychological and pro-cognitive effects have been attributed to IGF-1, but appropriate animal models of adult-onset IGF-1 deficiency are lacking. In this study, we use a viral-mediated Cre-loxP system to knockout the Igf1 gene in either the liver, neurons of the CA1 region of the hippocampus, or both. Knockout of liver Igf1 reduced serum IGF-1 levels by 40% and hippocampal IGF-1 levels by 26%. Knockout of Igf1 in CA1 reduced hippocampal IGF-1 levels by 13%. The most severe reduction in hippocampal IGF-1 occurred in the group with knockouts in both liver and CA1 (36% reduction), and was associated with a 3.5-fold increase in immobility in the forced swim test. Reduction of either circulating or hippocampal IGF-1 levels did not alter anxiety measured in an open field and elevated plus maze, nor locomotion in the open field. Furthermore, local compensation for deficiencies in circulating IGF-1 did not occur in the hippocampus, nor were serum levels of IGF-1 upregulated in response to the moderate decline of hippocampal IGF-1 caused by the knockouts in CA1. We conclude that adult-onset IGF-1 deficiency alone is sufficient to induce a depressive phenotype in mice. Furthermore, our results suggest that individuals with low brain levels of IGF-1 are at increased risk for depression and these behavioral effects are not ameliorated by increased local IGF-1 production or transport. Our study supports the hypothesis that the natural IGF-1 decline in aging humans may contribute to geriatric depression. PMID:21524689

  7. Mechanical behavior of fluoroelastomer considering long term ageing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinha, N.K., E-mail: nksinha@igcar.gov.in [Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), Kalpakkam, Tamilnadu 603102 (India); Mukhopadhyay, R., E-mail: rm@ktp.jkmail.com [Hari Shankar Singhania Elastomer and Tyre Research Institute (HASETRI), J. K. Tyre and Industries Ltd., Kankroli, Rajasthan 313342 (India); Raj, Baldev, E-mail: dr.baldev@psg.org.in [Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), Kalpakkam, Tamilnadu 603102 (India)

    2013-01-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Tensile stress-strain of aged (32 weeks; 140/170/200 Degree-Sign C) Viton A-401C specimens at RT, 110 Degree-Sign C. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Stress-softening negligible at 50/500 mm/min and RT/110 Degree-Sign C because of low black filler. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer RT relaxation at lower strain rate; 110 Degree-Sign C curve stiffening from Joule-Gough effect. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two zone stress-elongation behavior (cross-link, ionic domains) proposed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Extendable to peroxide cured fluoroelastomers with Iodine at mid and end of chains. - Abstract: Stress-elongation behavior of a Viton A-401C based compound established for backup seals of 500 MW(e), Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor is depicted. Stress-softening effects are negligible during room temperature (RT) or 110 Degree-Sign C measurements on unaged samples at strain rates of 50 mm/min and 500 mm/min because of low filler content. Relaxation is observed during RT property determination at lower strain rate. Stiffening of behavior at 50 mm/min and 110 Degree-Sign C is attributed to Joule-Gough effect and absence of relaxation because of increased molecular chain mobility. The two zone stress-elongation behavior (determined by chemical cross-links up to {approx}85% strain and by ionic interactions beyond) propounded in the article by combining air-aged specimen data (32 weeks at 140/170/200 Degree-Sign C) provides a behavior map of bisphenol cured, low filler, fluoroelastomers made of vinylidene fluoride and hexafluoropropylene. This could be extended to peroxide cured fluorocarbon rubbers for verifications and providing qualified compounds of better grades for critical nuclear elastomeric sealing applications.

  8. Retrosplenial Cortex and Long-Term Memory: Molecules to Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Travis P. Todd

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The retrosplenial cortex (RSC is reciprocally connected with the hippocampus and various parahippocampal cortical regions, suggesting that RSC is well-positioned to contribute to hippocampal-dependent memory. Consistent with this, substantial behavioral evidence indicates that RSC is essential for consolidating and/or retrieving contextual and spatial memories. In addition, there is growing evidence that RSC neurons undergo activity-dependent plastic changes during memory formation and retrieval. In this paper we review both the behavioral and cellular/molecular data and posit that the RSC has a particularly important role in the storage and retrieval of spatial and contextual memories perhaps due its involvement in binding together multiple cues in the environment. We identify remaining questions and avenues for future research that take advantage of emerging methods to selectively manipulate RSC neurons both spatially and temporally and to image the RSC in awake, behaving animals.

  9. Simulation of long-term behavior in HLW near-field by centrifugal model test. Part 4. Model test of coupled THM processes in isotropic stress conditions using heatable overpack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimoto, Soshi; Okada, Tetsuji; Sawada, Masataka

    2014-01-01

    We demonstrated the equivalent long-term behavior in the near-field of a geological repository for high level radioactive waste disposal, using the centrifugal near-field model test under the coupled thermo-hydraulic-mechanical condition. The model consisted of a sedimentary bedrock, buffer, and heating type model overpack, and was enclosed within a pressure vessel. Tests were conducted with a centrifugal force field of 30 G under isotropic stress-constrain conditions with confining pressures and injection of pore water. The temperature condition of the overpack was constantly 95°C. As the result, the values showed similar behaviors to that of the normal temperature tests partially. However, the different behaviors were measured such as the displacement of overpack change from the settlement to the heave, the extreme drop in the soil pressure of the buffer and the strain of side wall of bedrock change from the tension to the compression after injecting pore water of hundreds hours. In addition, the flow rate of the injection pore water suddenly changed after hundreds of hours. Furthermore, the density of the buffer was lower than that of the normal temperature tests by X-ray CT imaging in the post-tests. We infer that the high temperature overpack influenced the stiffness and the pore water distribution of the buffer, and the density and the soil pressure of the buffer decreased. As a result of the change of stiffness in the disposal hole (buffer), the tendency to the strain of the surrounding bedrock and the displacement of the overpack changed. (author)

  10. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achdou, Yves; Giraud, Pierre-Noel; Lasry, Jean-Michel; Lions, Pierre-Louis

    2016-01-01

    A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

  11. A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Achdou, Yves, E-mail: achdou@ljll.univ-paris-diderot.fr [Univ. Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions, UMR 7598, UPMC, CNRS (France); Giraud, Pierre-Noel [CERNA, Mines ParisTech (France); Lasry, Jean-Michel [Univ. Paris Dauphine (France); Lions, Pierre-Louis [Collège de France (France)

    2016-12-15

    A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In some cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.

  12. Modeling of long-term energy system of Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gotoh, Yoshitaka; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro

    1999-07-01

    In order to analyze the future potential of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, the long-term energy system of Japan was modeled following the framework of the MARKAL model, and the database of energy technology characteristics was developed. First, a reference energy system was built by incorporating all important energy sources and technologies that will be available until the year 2050. This system consists of 25 primary energy sources, 33 technologies for electric power generation and/or low temperature heat production, 97 technologies for energy transformation, storage, and distribution, and 170 end-use technologies. Second, the database was developed for the characteristics of individual technologies in the system. The characteristic data consists of input and output of energy carriers, efficiency, availability, lifetime, investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, CO 2 emission coefficient, and others. Since a large number of technologies are included in the system, this report focuses modeling of a supply side, and involves the database of energy technologies other than for end-use purposes. (author)

  13. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-12-15

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  14. Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred

    2005-01-01

    Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price

  15. A study on shear behavior of R/C beams subjected to long-term heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruta, M.; Yamazaki, M.

    1993-01-01

    In nuclear power plants, many structural members are subjected to long term heating. There are few experimental data available on the behavior especially in shear of reinforced concrete (R/C) members subjected to long term heating. This paper describes a study aimed at experimentally determining the shear behavior of R/C members in nuclear power plant facilities following sustained heating at high temperatures

  16. Long-Term Consequences of Postnatal Exposure to Lipopolysaccharide or Toxoplasma gonodii: Effect on Rat Behavior in Animal Model of Schozophrenia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tejkalová, H.; Kodym, P.; Klaschka, Jan; Horáček, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 3 (2013), s. 309-309 ISSN 1559-6109. [FELASA and SECAL Congress /12./. Animal Research: Better Science from Fewer Animal s. 10.06.2013-13.06.2013, Barcelona] Grant - others:GA MZd(CZ) NT13843 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : animal model * schizophrenia * LPS * toxoplasmosis Subject RIV: FH - Neurology

  17. Short- and long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in a rat chronic unpredictable stress model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yinghong; Wang, Yiqiang; Sun, Xiaoran; Lian, Bo; Sun, Hongwei; Wang, Gang; Du, Zhongde; Li, Qi; Sun, Lin

    2017-08-01

    This research was aimed to evaluate the behaviors of short- or long-term antidepressant effects of ketamine in rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress (CUS). Ketamine, a glutamate noncompetitive NMDA receptor antagonist, regulates excitatory amino acid functions, such as anxiety disorders and major depression, and plays an important role in synaptic plasticity and learning and memory. After 42 days of CUS model, male rats received either a single injection of ketamine (10 mg/kg; day 43) or 15 daily injections (days 43-75). The influence of ketamine on behavioral reactivity was assessed 24 hr (short-term) or 7 weeks after ketamine treatment (long-term). Behavioral tests used to assess the effects of these treatments included the sucrose preference (SP), open field (OF), elevated plus maze (EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM) to detect anxiety-like behavior (OF and EPM), forced swimming (FS), and water maze (WM). Results: Short-term ketamine administration resulted in increases of body weight gain, higher sensitivity to sucrose, augmented locomotor activity in the OF, more entries into the open arms of the EPM, along increased activity in the FS test; all responses indicative of reductions in depression/despair in anxiety-eliciting situations. No significant differences in these behaviors were obtained under conditions of long-term ketamine administration ( p  > .05). The CUS + Ketamine group showed significantly increased activity as compared with the CUS + Vehicle group for analysis of the long-term effects of ketamine (* p   .05). Taken together these findings demonstrate that a short-term administration of ketamine induced rapid antidepressant-like effects in adult male rats exposed to CUS conditions, effects that were not observed in response to the long-term treatment regime.

  18. Creating a Long-Term Diabetic Rabbit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianpu Wang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was to create a long-term rabbit model of diabetes mellitus for medical studies of up to one year or longer and to evaluate the effects of chronic hyperglycemia on damage of major organs. A single dose of alloxan monohydrate (100 mg/kg was given intravenously to 20 young New Zealand White rabbits. Another 12 age-matched normal rabbits were used as controls. Hyperglycemia developed within 48 hours after treatment with alloxan. Insulin was given daily after diabetes developed. All animals gained some body weight, but the gain was much less than the age-matched nondiabetic rabbits. Hyperlipidemia, higher blood urea nitrogen and creatinine were found in the diabetic animals. Histologically, the pancreas showed marked beta cell damage. The kidneys showed significantly thickened afferent glomerular arterioles with narrowed lumens along with glomerular atrophy. Lipid accumulation in the cytoplasm of hepatocytes appeared as vacuoles. Full-thickness skin wound healing was delayed. In summary, with careful management, alloxan-induced diabetic rabbits can be maintained for one year or longer in reasonably good health for diabetic studies.

  19. A modelling study of long term green roof retention performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stovin, Virginia; Poë, Simon; Berretta, Christian

    2013-12-15

    This paper outlines the development of a conceptual hydrological flux model for the long term continuous simulation of runoff and drought risk for green roof systems. A green roof's retention capacity depends upon its physical configuration, but it is also strongly influenced by local climatic controls, including the rainfall characteristics and the restoration of retention capacity associated with evapotranspiration during dry weather periods. The model includes a function that links evapotranspiration rates to substrate moisture content, and is validated against observed runoff data. The model's application to typical extensive green roof configurations is demonstrated with reference to four UK locations characterised by contrasting climatic regimes, using 30-year rainfall time-series inputs at hourly simulation time steps. It is shown that retention performance is dependent upon local climatic conditions. Volumetric retention ranges from 0.19 (cool, wet climate) to 0.59 (warm, dry climate). Per event retention is also considered, and it is demonstrated that retention performance decreases significantly when high return period events are considered in isolation. For example, in Sheffield the median per-event retention is 1.00 (many small events), but the median retention for events exceeding a 1 in 1 yr return period threshold is only 0.10. The simulation tool also provides useful information about the likelihood of drought periods, for which irrigation may be required. A sensitivity study suggests that green roofs with reduced moisture-holding capacity and/or low evapotranspiration rates will tend to offer reduced levels of retention, whilst high moisture-holding capacity and low evapotranspiration rates offer the strongest drought resistance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modelling its Long-Term Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shulzhenko, S.

    2016-01-01

    Structure of Ukrainian energy sector, its current challenges, drivers of its development and possible long-term pathways, and methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modelling of long-term national energy development.(author).

  1. Long-Term Bending Creep Behavior of Thin-Walled CFRP Tendon Pretensioned Spun Concrete Poles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni P. Terrasi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the long-term behavior of a series of highly-loaded, spun concrete pole specimens prestressed with carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP tendons, which were subjected to outdoor four-point bending creep tests since 1996 in the frame of collaboration with the Swiss precast concrete producer, SACAC (Società Anonima Cementi Armati Centrifugati. The 2 m span cylindrical beams studied are models for lighting poles produced for the last 10 years and sold on the European market. Five thin-walled pole specimens were investigated (diameter: 100 mm; wall-thickness: 25–27 mm. All specimens were produced in a pretensioning and spinning technique and were prestressed by pultruded CFRP tendons. Initially, two reference pole specimens were tested in quasi-static four-point bending to determine the short-term failure moment and to model the short-term flexural behavior. Then, three pole specimens were loaded to different bending creep moments: while the lowest loaded specimen was initially uncracked, the second specimen was loaded with 50% of the short-term bending failure moment and exhibited cracking immediately after load introduction. The highest loaded pole specimen sustained a bending moment of 72% of the short-term bending failure moment for 16.5 years before failing in July 2013, due to the bond failure of the tendons, which led to local crushing of the high-performance spun concrete (HPSC. Besides this, long-term monitoring of the creep tests has shown a limited time- and temperature-dependent increase of the deflections over the years, mainly due to the creep of the concrete. A concrete creep-based model allowed for the calculation of the long-term bending curvatures with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the pole specimens showed crack patterns that were stable over time and minimal slippage of the tendons with respect to the pole’s end-faces for the two lower load levels. The latter proves the successful and durable

  2. Density-dependent microbial turnover improves soil carbon model predictions of long-term litter manipulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, Katerina; Abramoff, Rose; Harte, John; Riley, William; Torn, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    Climatic, atmospheric, and land-use changes all have the potential to alter soil microbial activity via abiotic effects on soil or mediated by changes in plant inputs. Recently, many promising microbial models of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition have been proposed to advance understanding and prediction of climate and carbon (C) feedbacks. Most of these models, however, exhibit unrealistic oscillatory behavior and SOC insensitivity to long-term changes in C inputs. Here we diagnose the sources of instability in four models that span the range of complexity of these recent microbial models, by sequentially adding complexity to a simple model to include microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We propose a formulation that introduces density-dependence of microbial turnover, which acts to limit population sizes and reduce oscillations. We compare these models to results from 24 long-term C-input field manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that widely used first-order models and microbial models without density-dependence cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures. The proposed formulation improves predictions of long-term C-input changes, and implies greater SOC storage associated with CO2-fertilization-driven increases in C inputs over the coming century compared to common microbial models. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in Earth System Models.

  3. Uncertainty Assessment in Long Term Urban Drainage Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    the probability of system failures (defined as either flooding or surcharge of manholes or combined sewer overflow); (2) an application of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology in which an event based stochastic calibration is performed; and (3) long term Monte Carlo simulations...

  4. Long-term deflection and flexural behavior of reinforced concrete beams with recycled aggregate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Won-Chang; Yun, Hyun-Do

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Long-term deformation of recycled aggregate concrete beams was examined. • Three beams were monitored for over 380 days. • Influence of recycled aggregate on the long-term performance. • Comparison of that between normal and recycled aggregate concrete beams. - Abstract: This paper presents experimental results on the long-term deformations of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) beams for over 1 year (380 days) and flexural behavior of RAC beams after exposure to sustained loading. Three reinforced concrete (RC) beam specimens were fabricated with replacement percentage of aggregate (100% natural aggregate, 100% recycled coarse aggregate, and 50% recycled fine aggregate) and subjected to sustained loading that is 50% of the nominal flexural capacity. During the sustained loading period (380 days), the long-term deflection due to creep and shrinkage was recorded and compared with predicted behavior that was determined based on current specifications (ACI 318 Code). After measuring the long-term deflection for 380 days, four-point bending tests were conducted to investigate the flexural behavior of RC beams after exposure to sustained loading and determine any reduction in flexural capacity. A modified equation to predict the long-term deflection values for RC beams with recycled aggregate is proposed, and the experimental results are compared with the predictions calculated using the ACI 318 Code provisions

  5. Research of long-term mechanical displaced behavior of soft rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Hiroyuki; Minami, Kosuke

    2003-01-01

    When it thinks about a stratum disposition system of high-level radioactive waste, it is important to evaluate the long-term mechanical displaced behavior of the near field bedrock which is boundary condition of the engineered barrier that should be evaluated based on the reality. In this research, three following examination was carried out for reliability improvement of long-term dynamic deformation behavior estimate. 1) We evaluated the sedimentary rock of Horonobe where we used Okubo model as while changing hydraulic condition and temperature condition. 2) We carried out the model experiment that inner pressure acted on in order to grasp a movement of near field bedrock. 3) We examined model to evaluate that. As a result, the following things were provided. 1) Sedimentary rock of Horonobe is easy to cause strength degradation for being wet and dry cycles. When the rock is saturated after drying, it is broken along potential cracking. The rock reacts for a change of moisture content sensitively. In addition, a variation of the strength occurs in a little depth remainder. This diffuseness gave the strong influence on failure time. 2) Big plastic deformation may not do elasto-plasticity behavior according to theory for stress modification of rock mass. 3) We think with one of the factor that it produces remainder in prediction and real creep hour that these is as 'm = n (conatnt of Okubo model)' simply. Therefore we collect data after peak, and it is necessary to grasp 'm/n'. In addition, it is necessary to improve 'n' in the model which we can change by environment and stress state on the way. (author)

  6. Modelling the long-term vertical dynamics of salt marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoccarato, Claudia; Teatini, Pietro

    2017-04-01

    Salt marshes are vulnerable environments hosting complex interactions between physical and biological processes with a strong influence on the dynamics of the marsh evolution. The estimation and prediction of the elevation of a salt-marsh platform is crucial to forecast the marsh growth or regression under different scenarios considering, for example, the potential climate changes. The long-term vertical dynamics of a salt marsh is predicted with the aid of an original finite-element (FE) numerical model accounting for the marsh accretion and compaction and for the variation rates of the relative sea level rise, i.e., land subsidence of the marsh basement and eustatic rise of the sea level. The accretion term considers the vertical sedimentation of organic and inorganic material over the marsh surface, whereas the compaction reflects the progressive consolidation of the porous medium under the increasing load of the overlying younger deposits. The modelling approach is based on a 2D groundwater flow simulator, which provides the pressure evolution within a compacting/accreting vertical cross-section of the marsh assuming that the groundwater flow obeys the relative Darcy's law, coupled to a 1D vertical geomechanical module following Terzaghi's principle of effective intergranular stress. Soil porosity, permeability, and compressibility may vary with the effective intergranular stress according to empirically based relationships. The model also takes into account the geometric non-linearity arising from the consideration of large solid grain movements by using a Lagrangian approach with an adaptive FE mesh. The element geometry changes in time to follow the deposit consolidation and the element number increases in time to follow the sedimentation of new material. The numerical model is tested on different realistic configurations considering the influence of (i) the spatial distribution of the sedimentation rate in relation to the distance from the marsh margin, (ii

  7. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  8. Physicochemical properties and long-term behavior of french R7T7 nuclear waste glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vernaz, E.

    1990-01-01

    The French R7T7 nuclear glass composition was carefully selected to allow incorporation of some thirty different oxides found in fission product solutions. The resulting glass exhibits very low crystallization, and its physical and chemical properties are very similar to those of standard industrial glasses. Nuclear glasses have been shown to withstand α doses corresponding to several hundred thousand years under repository conditions. Predicting the long-term behavior of fission product glasses subjected to aqueous corrosion is no doubt the most difficult aspect of the problem. Predictions are necessarily based on mathematical models. A substantial research effort has been undertaken to identify all the basic corrosion mechanisms liable to control long-term alteration. These mechanisms are now relatively well understood, and provide the basis for developing the indispensable models. Realistic storage conditions exist under which glass alteration occurs at a very slow rate, and can fulfill its role as the first containment barrier for several tens of thousands of years

  9. Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valori, Luca; Picciolo, Francesco; Allansdottir, Agnes; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2012-01-24

    An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that interopinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly robust to modifications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence in a diverse range of online and offline settings.

  10. Mediators of a long-term movement abnormality in a Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily L. Ryan

    2012-11-01

    Despite neonatal diagnosis and life-long dietary restriction of galactose, many patients with classic galactosemia grow to experience significant long-term complications. Among the more common are speech, cognitive, behavioral, ovarian and neurological/movement difficulties. Despite decades of research, the pathophysiology of these long-term complications remains obscure, hindering prognosis and attempts at improved intervention. As a first step to overcome this roadblock we have begun to explore long-term outcomes in our previously reported GALT-null Drosophila melanogaster model of classic galactosemia. Here we describe the first of these studies. Using a countercurrent device, a simple climbing assay, and a startle response test to characterize and quantify an apparent movement abnormality, we explored the impact of cryptic GALT expression on phenotype, tested the role of sublethal galactose exposure and galactose-1-phosphate (gal-1P accumulation, tested the impact of age, and searched for potential anatomical defects in brain and muscle. We found that about 2.5% residual GALT activity was sufficient to reduce outcome severity. Surprisingly, sublethal galactose exposure and gal-1P accumulation during development showed no effect on the adult phenotype. Finally, despite the apparent neurological or neuromuscular nature of the complication we found no clear morphological differences between mutants and controls in brain or muscle, suggesting that the defect is subtle and/or is physiologic rather than structural. Combined, our results confirm that, like human patients, GALT-null Drosophila experience significant long-term complications that occur independently of galactose exposure, and serve as a proof of principle demonstrating utility of the GALT-null Drosophila model as a tool for exploring genetic and environmental modifiers of long-term outcome in GALT deficiency.

  11. Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

    2015-08-01

    Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

  12. Towards The Long-Term Preservation of Building Information Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beetz, Jacob; Dietze, Stefan; Berndt, René

    2013-01-01

    , no existing approach is able to provide a secure and efficient long-term preservation solution covering the broad spectrum of 3D architectural data, while at the same time taking into account the demands of institutional collectors like architecture libraries and archives as well as those of the private...... ICT-2011-9 project “DURAARK - Durable Architectural Knowledge” is presented. Initial preliminary results of the interdisciplinary working groups within this project ranging from the ingest and storage of voluminous sets of low-level point-cloud data from laser scans to semantically consistent...

  13. Long-term performance and behavior of sows fed high levels of non-starch polysaccharides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peet-Schwering, van der C.M.C.

    2004-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis was to investigate the long-term effects of feeding sows high levels of dietary fermentable non-starch polysaccharides CNSP) (i.e., NSP from sugar beet pulp) restrictedly or ad libitum during gestation or ad libitum during lactation on behavior, reproductive

  14. Social Stairs : taking the Piano Staircase towards long-term behavioral change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.R.; Megens, C.J.P.G.; Hoven, van den E.A.W.H.; Hummels, C.C.M.; Brombacher, A.C.; Berkovsky, S.; Freyne, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the development of Social Stairs, an intelligent musical staircase to change people’s behavior in the long-term to take the stairs in favor of the elevator. Through designing with the Experiential Design Landscape (EDL) method, a design opportunity was found that social

  15. How Do You Motivate Long-Term Behavior Change to Prevent Cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    John P. Pierce PhD, a professor in the Department of Family and Preventive Medicine at the University of California, San Diego and Director of Population Science at Moores Cancer Center, presented "How Do You Motivate Long-Term Behavior Change to Prevent Cancer?" 

  16. Behavioral Specifications of Reward-Associated Long-Term Memory Enhancement in Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittmann, Bianca C.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Duzel, Emrah

    2011-01-01

    Recent functional imaging studies link reward-related activation of the midbrain substantia nigra-ventral tegmental area (SN/VTA), the site of origin of ascending dopaminergic projections, with improved long-term episodic memory. Here, we investigated in two behavioral experiments how (1) the contingency between item properties and reward, (2) the…

  17. Nonverbal behavior observation : collaborative gaming method for prediction of conflicts during long-term missions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voynarovskaya, N.; Gorbunov, R.D.; Barakova, E.I.; Ahn, R.M.C.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.; Yang, H.S.; et al., xx

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a method for monitoring mental state of small isolated crews during long-term missions (such as space mission, polar expeditions, submarine crews, meteorological stations, and etc). It combines the records of negotiation game with monitoring of the nonverbal behavior of the

  18. Reinstatement of long-term memory following erasure of its behavioral and synaptic expression in Aplysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Shanping; Cai, Diancai; Pearce, Kaycey; Sun, Philip Y-W; Roberts, Adam C; Glanzman, David L

    2014-01-01

    eLife digest Cells called neurons allow information to travel quickly around the body so that we can rapidly respond to any changes that we sense in our environment. This includes non-conscious reactions, such as the knee-jerk reflex in humans. Reflexes and other behaviors can be influenced by long-term memory, and it is thought that long-term memory is stored by changes in the synapses that connect neurons to each other. The reflexes of a sea slug known as Aplysia are often used to study mem...

  19. Creep deformation behavior at long-term in P23/T23 steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sawada, K.; Tabuchi, M.; Kimura, K. [National Institute for Materials Science (Japan)

    2008-07-01

    Creep behavior of ASME P23/T23 steels was investigated and analyzed, focusing on creep strength degradation at long-term. Creep rupture strength at 625 C and 650 C dropped at long-term in both P23 and T23 steels. The stress exponent of minimum creep rate at 625 C and 650 C was 7.8-13 for higher stresses and 3.9-5.3 for lower stresses in the P23/T23 steels. The change of stress exponent with stress levels was consistent with the drop in creep rupture strength at long-term. The Monkman-Grant rule was confirmed in the range examined in P23 steel, while the data points deviated from the rule at long-term in the case of T23 steel. The creep ductility of P23 steel was high over a wide stress and temperature range. On the other hand, in T23 steel, creep ductility at 625 C and 650 C decreased as time to rupture increased. The change in ductility may cause the deviation from the Monkman-Grant rule. Fracture mode changed from transgranular to intergranular fracture in the long-term at 625 C and 650 C. (orig.)

  20. A Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luong, Ming; Stevens, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The Multi-Stage Maturity Model for Long-Term IT Outsourcing Relationship Success, a theoretical stages-of-growth model, explains long-term success in IT outsourcing relationships. Research showed the IT outsourcing relationship life cycle consists of four distinct, sequential stages: contract, transition, support, and partnership. The model was…

  1. Long-Term Cyclic Oxidation Behavior of Wrought Commercial Alloys at High Temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Bingtao [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2003-01-01

    The oxidation resistance of a high-temperature alloy is dependent upon sustaining the formation of a protective scale, which is strongly related to the alloying composition and the oxidation condition. The protective oxide scale only provides a finite period of oxidation resistance owing to its eventual breakdown, which is especially accelerated under thermal cycling conditions. This current study focuses on the long-term cyclic oxidation behavior of a number of commercial wrought alloys. The alloys studied were Fe- and Ni-based, containing different levels of minor elements, such as Si, Al, Mn, and Ti. Oxidation testing was conducted at 1000 and 1100 C in still air under both isothermal and thermal cycling conditions (1-day and 7-days). The specific aspects studied were the oxidation behavior of chromia-forming alloys that are used extensively in industry. The current study analyzed the effects of alloying elements, especially the effect of minor element Si, on cyclic oxidation resistance. The behavior of oxide scale growth, scale spallation, subsurface changes, and chromium interdiffusion in the alloy were analyzed in detail. A novel model was developed in the current study to predict the life-time during cyclic oxidation by simulating oxidation kinetics and chromium interdiffusion in the subsurface of chromia-forming alloys.

  2. The use of natural and archaeological analogues for understanding the long-term behavior of nuclear glasses; L'utilisation des analogues naturels et archeologiques pour la comprehension de l'evolution a long terme des verres nucleaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Libourel, G.; Verney-Carron, A.; Morlok, A. [CNRS UPR2300, centre de recherches petrographiques et geochimiques (CRPG), Nancy-universite, 15, rue Notre-Dame-des-Pauvres, BP 20, 54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Libourel, G. [INPL, Ecole nationale superieure de geologie (ENSG), Nancy-universite, rue du Doyen-Marcel-Roubault, BP 20, 54501 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Gin, St. [CEA Marcoule, DEN/SECM/LCLT, 30 (France); Sterpenich, J. [G2R, CNRS-UMR 7566, Nancy-universite, BP 70239, 54506 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy cedex (France); Michelin, A.; Neff, D.; Dillmann, Ph. [Laboratoire archeomateriaux et prevision de l' alteration LAPA/SIS2 M, CEA and CNRS, Bat 637, CEA Saclay, 91191 Gif/Yvette cedex (France); Michelin, A.; Dillmann, Ph. [LMC IRAMAT UMR5060 CNRS (France)

    2011-02-15

    The knowledge of the long-term behavior of nuclear waste in anticipation of ultimate disposal in a deep geological formation is of prime importance in a waste management strategy. If phenomenological models have been developed to predict the long-term behavior of these materials, validating these models remains a challenge, when considering the time scale of radioactive decay of radionuclides of environmental concern, typically 10{sup 4}-10{sup 5} yrs. Here we show how natural or archaeological analogues provide critical constraints not only on the phenomenology of glass alteration and the mechanisms involved, but also on the ability of experimental short-term data to predict long-term alteration in complex environments. (authors)

  3. A new mathematical programming model for long-term production scheduling considering geological uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Gholamnejad, J.; Moosavi, E.

    2012-01-01

    Determination of the optimum production schedules over the life of a mine is a critical mechanism in open pit mine planning procedures. Long-term production scheduling is used to maximize the net present value of the project under technical, financial, and environmental constraints. Mathematical programming models are well suited for optimizing long-term production schedules of open pit mines. There are two approaches to solving long-term production problems: deterministic- and uncertainty- b...

  4. Long-Term Flexural Behaviors of GFRP Reinforced Concrete Beams Exposed to Accelerated Aging Exposure Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeonho Park

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of accelerated aging conditions on the long-term flexural behavior and ductility of reinforced concrete (RC members with glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP bars (RC-GFRP specimen and steel bars (RC-steel specimen. A total of thirty six specimens were designed with different amounts of reinforcement with three types of reinforcing bars (i.e., helically wrapped GFRP, sand-coated surface GFRP and steel. Eighteen specimens were subjected to sustained loads and accelerated aging conditions (i.e., 47 °C and 80% relative humidity in a chamber. The flexural behavior of specimens under 300-day exposure was compared to that of the companion specimens without experiencing accelerated aging conditions. Results indicate that the accelerated aging conditions reduced flexural capacity in not only RC-steel, but also RC-GFRP specimens, with different rates of reduction. Different types of GFRP reinforcement exhibited different rates of degradation of the flexural capacity when embedded in concrete under the same exposure conditions. Several existing models were compared with experimental results for predicting the deflection and deformability index for specimens. Bischoff and Gross’s model exhibited an excellent prediction of the time-dependent deflections. Except for the deformability index proposed by Jaeger, there was no general trend related to the aging duration. This study recommends the need for further investigation on the prediction of the deformability index.

  5. Synthesis on the long term behavior of spent nuclear fuel. Vol.1,2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poinssot, Ch.; Toulhoat, P.; Grouiller, J.P.; Pavageau, J.; Piron, J.P.; Pelletier, M.; Dehaudt, Ph.; Cappelaere, Ch.; Limon, R.; Desgranges, L.; Jegou, Ch.; Corbel, C.; Maillard, S.; Faure, M.H.; Cicariello, J.C.; Masson, M.

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this report is to present the major objectives, the key scientific issues, and the preliminary results of the research conducted in France in the framework of the third line of the 1991 Law, on the topic of the long term behavior of spent nuclear fuel in view of long term storage or geological disposal. Indeed, CEA launched in 1998 the Research Program on the Long Term Behavior of Spent Nuclear Fuel (abbreviated and referred to as PRECCI in French; Poinssot, 1998) the aim of which is to study and assess the ability of spent nuclear fuel packages to keep their initially allocated functions in interim storage and geological disposal: total containment and recovery functions for duration up to hundreds of years (long term or short-term interim storage and/or first reversible stages of geological disposal) and partial confinement function (controlled fluxes of RN) for thousands of years in geological disposal. This program has to allow to obtain relevant and reliable data concerning the long term behavior of the spent fuel packages so that feasibility of interim storage and/or geological disposal can be assessed and demonstrated as well as optimized. Within this framework, this report presents for every possible scenario of evolution (closed system, in Presence of water in presence of gases) what are estimated to be the most relevant evolution mechanism. For the most relevant scientific issues hence defined, a complete scientific review of the best state of knowledge is subsequently here given thus allowing to draw a clear guideline of the major R and D issues for the next years. (authors)

  6. Modeling long-term aspects of nuclear waste disposal: the AEGIS experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dove, F.H.

    1983-01-01

    Modeling the long-term aspects of nuclear waste disposal has its roots in risk analysis of man-made systems like nuclear reactors. Analytical problems can be introduced into the performance assessment of a site-specific repository if an appreciation for the behavior of a natural earth system is not maintained. However, this should not preclude the application of historically useful analytical techniques like bounding strategies in favor of emerging, data-intensive techniques. The technical challenge is to apply existing technology and available data to a complex problem and produce a useful result

  7. Microscopic study of rock for estimating long-term behavior. Research document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki

    2003-02-01

    Micro-structure of rock plays an essential role for their long-term behavior. For elucidating long-term characteristics of granite we here present the followings: 1) Conformal Lase Scanning Microscope (LSM) observation of configuration of a joint in granite, its Fourier analysis and the change under uniaxial stress condition, 2) characterization of the mechanism of microcrack initiation and propagation observed by stereoscopic microscope under uniaxial/triaxial compression and relaxation tests, 3) observation of microcrack initiation and propagation by LSM under uniaxial compression, and 4) a study of strong discontinuity analysis included in the homogenization theory to predict the long-term behavior of micro/macro-level stress for granite. Rock image processing and analysis become a fundamental procedure to determine rock surface discontinuities. In Chapter 2 LSM that can acquire three-dimensional images is introduced to observe the roughness of discontinuity in a rock specimen. Then, discontinuities appeared on circular sections are identified by LSM and characterized by a Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) analysis. The change of discontinuities is observed under applying stress. Microcrack generation and propagation play an essential role to predict the long-term behavior of rock. In Chapter 3 a progressive development of cracking in granite is revealed by using stereoscopic microscope under water-saturated triaxial compression condition. Next by using LSM observe the procedure of micro-cracking under uniaxial compression condition. Obviously the micro-crack initiation and propagation controls the time-dependent behavior of granite. We have analysed the behavior by a viscoelastic theory applied in homogenization method. However since it is difficult to determine the inter-granular properties of constituent crystals and to represent the stress-dependent nonlinear characteristics by this method, we study a strong discontinuity analysis included in the

  8. Long-term oxytocin administration improves social behaviors in a girl with autistic disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaka, Hirotaka; Munesue, Toshio; Ishitobi, Makoto; Asano, Mizuki; Omori, Masao; Sato, Makoto; Tomoda, Akemi; Wada, Yuji

    2012-08-13

    Patients with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) exhibit core autistic symptoms including social impairments from early childhood and mostly show secondary disabilities such as irritability and aggressive behavior based on core symptoms. However, there are still no radical treatments of social impairments in these patients. Oxytocin has been reported to play important roles in multiple social behaviors dependent on social recognition, and has been expected as one of the effective treatments of social impairments of patients with ASDs. We present a case of a 16-year-old girl with autistic disorder who treated by long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray. Her autistic symptoms were successfully treated by two month administration; the girl's social interactions and social communication began to improve without adverse effects. Her irritability and aggressive behavior also improved dramatically with marked decreases in aberrant behavior checklist scores from 69 to 7. This case is the first to illustrate long-term administration of oxytocin nasal spray in the targeted treatment of social impairments in a female with autistic disorder. This case suggests that long-term nasal oxytocin spray is promising and well-tolerated for treatment of social impairments of patients with ASDs.

  9. Dopamine Modulation of Reunion Behavior in Short and Long Term Marmoset Pairs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah B. Carp

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available One major neurobiological substrate regulating social processes is dopamine (DA. DA is implicated in social behavior in species as diverse as fish and birds, and has an established role in regulating relationships between mates in socially monogamous rodents. Marmoset monkeys display traits associated with social monogamy including high rates of affiliation, biparental care, distress upon separation, and aggression toward strangers; several of these behavioral patterns change throughout the development of relationships. This temporal change may represent changing demands, as pairs are likely to jointly face new experiences (e.g., parenthood throughout pairing. We investigated the role of DA and pairing length on social behavior during reunion after separation from the mate. Marmosets were removed from their home environment and treated with agonists and antagonists for the D1 and D2 receptor subtypes. They were exposed to a novel environment containing an opposite-sex stranger and their pair mate, and then reunited with their mate in the home enclosure. Marmosets in long term pairs exhibited higher levels of food sharing during reunion than marmosets in short term pairs, with females in long term pairs sharing food more than males; no sex difference was observed in short term pairs. Subjects in short term pairs spent more time grooming their mate than receiving grooming during reunion, while marmosets in long term pairs displayed similar amounts of both initiated and received grooming. DA treatment altered pair-level behavior. When females received either a D2 agonist or antagonist, short term pairs spent less time in proximity, compared to when males received the same treatments. In long term pairs, treatment of females with either a D1 agonist or antagonist resulted in pairs spending less time in social proximity than when males were treated. These findings suggest that the function of the DA system in mate behavior may be similar between

  10. Communication Behaviors as Predictors of Long-Term Dyadic Adjustment: Personality as a Moderator

    OpenAIRE

    Ariane Lazaridès; Claude Bélanger; Stéphane Sabourin

    2010-01-01

    In this longitudinal study, we examined the moderating role of personality in the relationship between communication behaviors and long-term dyadic adjustment. A sample of 82 couples completed the NEO Five-Factor Inventory and the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. These couples were also videotaped during a 15-minute problem-solving discussion. Approximately 2.5 years later, these couples completed again the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. Results show that personality of both men and women moderates the rel...

  11. SPIN90 Modulates Long-Term Depression and Behavioral Flexibility in the Hippocampus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dae Hwan Kim

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The importance of actin-binding proteins (ABPs in the regulation of synapse morphology and plasticity has been well established. SH3 protein interacting with Nck, 90 kDa (SPIN90, an Nck-interacting protein highly expressed in synapses, is essential for actin remodeling and dendritic spine morphology. Synaptic targeting of SPIN90 to spine heads or dendritic shafts depends on its phosphorylation state, leading to blockage of cofilin-mediated actin depolymerization and spine shrinkage. However, the physiological role of SPIN90 in long-term plasticity, learning and memory are largely unknown. In this study, we demonstrate that Spin90-knockout (KO mice exhibit substantial deficits in synaptic plasticity and behavioral flexibility. We found that loss of SPIN90 disrupted dendritic spine density in CA1 neurons of the hippocampus and significantly impaired long-term depression (LTD, leaving basal synaptic transmission and long-term potentiation (LTP intact. These impairments were due in part to deficits in AMPA receptor endocytosis and its pre-requisites, GluA1 dephosphorylation and postsynaptic density (PSD 95 phosphorylation, but also by an intrinsic activation of Akt-GSK3β signaling as a result of Spin90-KO. In accordance with these defects, mice lacking SPIN90 were found to carry significant deficits in object-recognition and behavioral flexibility, while learning ability was largely unaffected. Collectively, these findings demonstrate a novel modulatory role for SPIN90 in hippocampal LTD and behavioral flexibility.

  12. A prediction method for long-term behavior of prestressed concrete containment vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozaki, M.; Abe, T.; Watanabe, Y.; Kato, A.; Yamaguchi, T.; Yamamoto, M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents results of studies on the long-term behavior of PCCVs at Taruga Unit No 2 and Ohi Unit No 3/4 power stations. The objective of this study is to evaluate the measured strain in the concrete and reduction force in the tendons, and to establish the prediction methods for long-term PCCVs behavior. Comparing the measured strains with those calculated due to creep and shrinkage of the concrete, those in contrast were investigated. Furthermore, the reduced tendon forces are calculated considering losses in elasticity, relaxation, creep and shrinkage. The measured reduction in the tendon forces is compared with the calculated. Considering changes in temperature and humidity, the measured strains and tendon forces were in good agreement with those calculated. From the above results, it was confirmed that the residual pre stresses in the PCCVs maintain the predicted values at the design stage, and that the prediction method of long-term behaviors has sufficient reliability. (author). 10 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs

  13. Long term bending behavior of ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe-Alexandru BARBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Unlike normal concrete (NC the behavior of ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC is different under long-term efforts, if we refer to creep, shrinkage or long-term deflections. It is well known that UHPC has special properties, like compressive strength higher than 150 MPa and tensile strength higher than 20 MPa - in case of UHPC reinforced with steel-fibers. Nevertheless, UHPC behavior is not completely elucidated in what concerns creep straining or serviceability behavior in case of structural elements. Some studies made on UHPC samples shown that creep is significantly reduced if the concrete is subjected to heat treatment and if it contains steel-fiber reinforcement. Relating thereto, it is important to know how does structural elements made of this type of concrete works in service life under long-term loadings. The results obtained on UHPC samples, regarding creep straining from tension or compression efforts may not be generalized in case of structural elements (e.g. beams, slabs, columns subjected to bending. By performing this study, it was aimed to understand the influence of heat treatment and steel-fiber addition on the rheological phenomena of UHPC bended beams.

  14. A long term model of circulation. [human body

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A quantitative approach to modeling human physiological function, with a view toward ultimate application to long duration space flight experiments, was undertaken. Data was obtained on the effect of weightlessness on certain aspects of human physiological function during 1-3 month periods. Modifications in the Guyton model are reviewed. Design considerations for bilateral interface models are discussed. Construction of a functioning whole body model was studied, as well as the testing of the model versus available data.

  15. A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

    2014-01-01

    Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett–Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network. - Highlights: • We take the Fick diffusion and the Soret diffusion into account in the ion drift theory. • We develop a new model based on the old HP model. • The new model can describe the forgetting effect and the spike-rate-dependent property of memristor. • The new model can solve the boundary effect of all window functions discussed in [13]. • A new Hopfield neural network with the forgetting ability is built by the new memristor model

  16. Contribution and limits of geochemical calculation codes to evaluate the long term behavior of nuclear waste glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, B.; Crovisier, J.L.

    1997-01-01

    Geochemical models have been intensively developed by researchers since more than twenty five years in order to be able to better understand and/or predict the long term stability/instability of water-rock systems. These geochemical codes were ail built first on a thermodynamic approach deriving from the application of Mass Action Law. The resulting first generation of models allowed to detect or predict the possible mass transfers (thermodynamic models) between aqueous and mineral phases including irreversible dissolutions of primary minerals and/or precipitation near equilibrium of secondary mineral phases. The recent development of models based on combined thermodynamics and kinetics opens the field of Lime dependent reactions prediction. This is crucial if one thinks to combine geochemical and hydrological studies in the so-called coupled models for transport and reaction calculations. All these models are progressively applied to the prediction of long term behavior of mineral phases, and more specifically glasses. In order to succeed in chat specific extension of the models, but also the data bases, there is a great need for additional new data from experimental approaches and from natural analogues. The modelling approach appears than also very useful in order to interpret the results of experimental data and to relate them to long term data extracted from natural analogues. Specific functions for modelling solid solution phases mat' also be used for describing the products of glasses alterations. (authors)

  17. Long-term Morphological Modeling at Coastal Inlets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-15

    that of Humboldt Bay, CA. The model reproduces reasonably well several geomorphic and hydrodynamic features of the inlet at Humboldt Bay. The...geometries, and model setup (e.g., sediment transport formulas) to investigate the controlling geomorphic parameters and the applicability of the CMS...2015 9 The model reproduces the general geomorphic features of Humboldt Bay. The ebb shoal volume is in the lower range of the estimated amount

  18. Phenomenological study on crystalline rock for evaluating of long-term behavior (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okubo, Seisuke; Fukui, Katsunori; Hashiba, Kimihiro; Hikima, Ryoichi; Tanno, Takeo; Sanada, Hiroyuki; Matsui, Hiroya; Sato, Toshinori

    2012-02-01

    Rock, under in situ conditions, shows time-dependent behavior such as creep/relaxation. With respect to high-level radioactive waste disposal, knowledge of the long-term mechanical stability of shafts and galleries excavated in rock is required, not only during construction and operation but also over a period of thousands of years after closure. Therefore, it is very important to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock for evaluating long-term mechanical stability. The purpose of this study is determining the mechanisms of time-dependent behavior of rock by precise testing, observation and measurement in order to develop methods for evaluating long-term mechanical stability of a rock mass. In the previous work, testing techniques have been established and basic evaluation methods were developed. Recently, some parameters needed for simulation of time-dependent behavior were determined at the Mizunami underground research facilities. However, sufficient data to check the reliability of the evaluation method for these parameters were not available. This report describes the results of the activities in fiscal year 2010. In Chapter 1, we provide an overview and the background to this study. In Chapter 2, the results of a long-term creep test on Tage tuff, started in fiscal year 1997 are described. In Chapter 3, the relation of loading-rate dependency of strength and stress dependency of creep life, the relation of time dependency, probability distribution and size effects are discussed to indicate more clearly the meaning of the value of 'n' to express the degree of time dependency of the rock. Furthermore, past studies concerning the value of 'n' are reviewed and the tests that could be carried out in future studies of mechanical properties and time dependency of Toki granite are considered in this Chapter. In Chapter 4, failure criterions of a rock mass considering time dependency are discussed. In Chapter 5, the FEM analysis implemented with a generalized

  19. Long-Term Calculations with Large Air Pollution Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ambelas Skjøth, C.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Brandt, J.

    1999-01-01

    Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998......Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998...

  20. Long-term leaching behavior of vitrified high-level wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Sonobe, Hitoshi; Sasaki, Noriaki; Kashihara, Hidechiyo

    1985-01-01

    A long-term Soxhlet leaching test, long-term static leaching test, solubility evaluation test and actual-scale glass solid leaching test were carried out for simulated vitrified wastes. Under high flow-rate leachate conditions, the leaching of high-solubility substances such as B and Na increases almost linearly with time while that of Fe, Ni and rare earth metals strongly depends on their solubility. The overall leaching rate changes (tends to decrease) with time under static conditions. The elution or diffusion is the rate determining step in the earlier region of the leaching process while the solubilities of major components have greater effects in the latter region. The change of the dominant leaching mechanism is delayed more largely as the surface-area to leachate-volume (SA/V) ratio decreases. Actual-scale glass specimens showed almost the same leaching behaviors as small-scale ones. If cracks exist in glass solid, the leaching in them is slow causing little effects on the overall leaching rate. This may be due to the fact that solubility-dependent leaching is occuring in the cracks. The long-term static leaching observations were not satisfactorily explained by the MCC-3 type solubility test results. It is important to clarify the solubility-dependent leaching behaviors at large SA/V ratios. (Nogami, K.)

  1. Magnetic Behavior of Sintered NdFeB Magnets on a Long-Term Timescale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minna Haavisto

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Stable polarization of permanent magnets over the lifetime of the application is an important aspect in electrical machine design. Specification of the long-term stability of magnet material is difficult, since knowledge of the phenomenon is incomplete. To be able to optimize magnet material selection, the long-term magnetic behavior of the material must also be understood. This study shows that material with a very square JH curve is stable until a certain critical operating temperature is reached. Major losses are detected as the critical temperature is exceeded. Material with a rounder JH curve does not show a well-defined critical temperature, but increasing losses over a large temperature range. The critical temperature of a material is also dependent on the field conditions. Results differ whether the tests are performed in an open or closed magnetic circuit. In open-circuit tests, the opposing field is not homogeneously distributed throughout the volume of the magnet and thus the long-term behavior is different than that in closed-circuit conditions. Open-circuit tests seem to give bigger losses than closed-circuit tests in cases where the permeance coefficient of the open-circuit sample is considered to be the average permeance coefficient, calculated according to the dimensions of the magnet.

  2. Modelling Tradescantia fluminensis to assess long term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex James

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple Poisson process model for the growth of Tradescantia fluminensis, an invasive plant species that inhibits the regeneration of native forest remnants in New Zealand. The model was parameterised with data derived from field experiments in New Zealand and then verified with independent data. The model gave good predictions which showed that its underlying assumptions are sound. However, this simple model had less predictive power for outputs based on variance suggesting that some assumptions were lacking. Therefore, we extended the model to include higher variability between plants thereby improving its predictions. This high variance model suggests that control measures that promote node death at the base of the plant or restrict the main stem growth rate will be more effective than those that reduce the number of branching events. The extended model forms a good basis for assessing the efficacy of various forms of control of this weed, including the recently-released leaf-feeding tradescantia leaf beetle (Neolema ogloblini.

  3. Creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and long-term deformation analysis of landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Liangchao; Wang, Shimei; Zhang, Yeming

    2015-04-01

    Sliding zone soil is a special soil layer formed in the development of a landslide. Its creep behavior plays a significant role in long-term deformation of landslides. Due to rainfall infiltration and reservoir water level fluctuation, the soils in the slide zone are often in unsaturated state. Therefore, the investigation of creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of the long-term deformation of a landslide in reservoir areas. In this study, the full-process creep curves of the unsaturated soils in the sliding zone in different net confining pressure, matric suctions and stress levels were obtained from a large number of laboratory triaxial creep tests. A nonlinear creep model for unsaturated soils and its three-dimensional form was then deduced based on the component model theory and unsaturated soil mechanics. This creep model was validated with laboratory creep data. The results show that this creep model can effectively and accurately describe the nonlinear creep behaviors of the unsaturated sliding zone soils. In order to apply this creep model to predict the long-term deformation process of landslides, a numerical model for simulating the coupled seepage and creep deformation of unsaturated sliding zone soils was developed based on this creep model through the finite element method (FEM). By using this numerical model, we simulated the deformation process of the Shuping landslide located in the Three Gorges reservoir area, under the cycling reservoir water level fluctuation during one year. The simulation results of creep displacement were then compared with the field deformation monitoring data, showing a good agreement in trend. The results show that the creeping deformations of landslides have strong connections with the changes of reservoir water level. The creep model of unsaturated sliding zone soils and the findings obtained by numerical simulations in this study are conducive to

  4. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available focused on SA Highveld, 2006 ? Keeping all CAMx inputs ?standardized?, leaving only meteorology as a variable ? CSIR 2010 Slide 11 CAMx data flow CAMx Met model USGS surface data Emissions Initial & boundary Haze & albedo Photolysis rates...

  5. An expectancy-value theory approach to the long-term modification of smoking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, R W; Deckner, C W; Mewborn, C R

    1978-04-01

    Despite the research interest in modifying smoking behavior, therapeutic treatments that can produce long-term cessation have not been demonstrated rigorously. A follow-up study of two attitude change experiments (N = 173) examined the effects of a fear appeal, that is, increasing smokers' awareness and appreciation of the highly noxious consequences of smoking. Although this familiar type of information may be an integral component of many smoking treatment programs, its long-term suppressive effect has not been demonstrated in well-controlled experiments. The results disclosed that 3 months and also 1 year after treatment, a high-fear manipulation had increased significantly the percentage of smokers who were able to stop smoking completely.

  6. Long-term effect of September 11 on the political behavior of victims' families and neighbors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hersh, Eitan D

    2013-12-24

    This article investigates the long-term effect of September 11, 2001 on the political behaviors of victims' families and neighbors. Relative to comparable individuals, family members and residential neighbors of victims have become--and have stayed--significantly more active in politics in the last 12 years, and they have become more Republican on account of the terrorist attacks. The method used to demonstrate these findings leverages the random nature of the terrorist attack to estimate a causal effect and exploits new techniques to link multiple, individual-level, governmental databases to measure behavioral change without relying on surveys or aggregate analysis.

  7. Long-term effect of September 11 on the political behavior of victims’ families and neighbors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hersh, Eitan D.

    2013-01-01

    This article investigates the long-term effect of September 11, 2001 on the political behaviors of victims’ families and neighbors. Relative to comparable individuals, family members and residential neighbors of victims have become—and have stayed—significantly more active in politics in the last 12 years, and they have become more Republican on account of the terrorist attacks. The method used to demonstrate these findings leverages the random nature of the terrorist attack to estimate a causal effect and exploits new techniques to link multiple, individual-level, governmental databases to measure behavioral change without relying on surveys or aggregate analysis. PMID:24324145

  8. Automated analysis of long-term grooming behavior in Drosophila using a k-nearest neighbors classifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Victoria W; Shirasu-Hiza, Mimi

    2018-01-01

    Despite being pervasive, the control of programmed grooming is poorly understood. We addressed this gap by developing a high-throughput platform that allows long-term detection of grooming in Drosophila melanogaster. In our method, a k-nearest neighbors algorithm automatically classifies fly behavior and finds grooming events with over 90% accuracy in diverse genotypes. Our data show that flies spend ~13% of their waking time grooming, driven largely by two major internal programs. One of these programs regulates the timing of grooming and involves the core circadian clock components cycle, clock, and period. The second program regulates the duration of grooming and, while dependent on cycle and clock, appears to be independent of period. This emerging dual control model in which one program controls timing and another controls duration, resembles the two-process regulatory model of sleep. Together, our quantitative approach presents the opportunity for further dissection of mechanisms controlling long-term grooming in Drosophila. PMID:29485401

  9. A scalable computational framework for establishing long-term behavior of stochastic reaction networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankit Gupta

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed.

  10. Long-Term Cognitive and Behavioral Outcomes following Resolution of Sleep Disordered Breathing in Preschool Children.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah N Biggs

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the long term effects of resolution of SDB in preschool children, either following treatment or spontaneous recovery, on cognition and behavior. Children diagnosed with SDB at 3-5y (N = 35 and non-snoring controls (N = 25, underwent repeat polysomnography (PSG and cognitive and behavioral assessment 3 years following a baseline study. At follow-up, children with SDB were grouped into Resolved and Unresolved. Resolution was defined as: obstructive apnea hypopnea index (OAHI ≤1 event/h; no snoring detected on PSG; and no parental report of habitual snoring. 57% (20/35 of children with SDB received treatment, with SDB resolving in 60% (12/20. 43% (15/35 were untreated, of whom 40% (6/15 had spontaneous resolution of SDB. Cognitive reduced between baseline and follow-up, however this was not related to persistent disease, with no difference in cognitive outcomes between Resolved, Unresolved or Control groups. Behavioral functioning remained significantly worse in children originally diagnosed with SDB compared to control children, regardless of resolution. Change in OAHI did not predict cognitive or behavioral outcomes, however a reduction in nocturnal arousals, irrespective of full resolution, was associated with improvement in attention and aggressive behavior. These results suggest that resolution of SDB in preschool children has little effect on cognitive or behavioral outcomes over the long term. The association between sleep fragmentation and behavior appears independent of SDB, however may be moderated by concomitant SDB. This challenges the assumption that treatment of SDB will ameliorate associated cognitive and behavioural deficits and supports the possibility of a SDB phenotype.

  11. Thermal and physicochemical properties important for the long term behavior of nuclear waste glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vernaz, E.; Matzke, H.J.

    1992-01-01

    High level nuclear waste from reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel has to be solidified in a stable matrix for safe long-time storage. Vitrification in borosilicate glasses is the technique accepted worldwide. A number of different glasses was developed in different national programs. The criteria and the reasons for selecting the final compositions are briefly described. Emphasis is placed on the French product R7T7 and on thermal and physicochemical properties though glasses developed in other national projects (e.g. the German product GP 98/12 etc.) are also treated. The basic physical and mechanical properties and the chemical durability of the glass in contact with water or other aqueous solutions are described. The basic mechanisms of aqueous corrosion are discussed and the evolving modelling of the leaching process is dealt with, as well as effects of container material, backfill, etc. The thermal behavior has also been studied and extensive data exist on diffusion of glass constituents (Na) and of interesting elements of the waste such as the alkalis Rb and Cs or the actinides U and Pu, as well as on crystallization processes in the glass during storage at elevated temperatures. Emphasis is placed on the radiation stability of the glasses, based on extensive studies using short-lived actinides (e.g. Cm-244) or ion-implantation to produce the damage expected during long storage at an accelerated rate. The radiation stability is shown to be very good, if realistic damage conditions are used. The knowledge accumulated in the past years is used to evaluate and predict the long-term evolution of the glass under storage conditions

  12. Long-term behavior of aortic intramural hematomas and penetrating ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Alan S; Ziganshin, Bulat A; Charilaou, Paris; Tranquilli, Maryann; Rizzo, John A; Elefteriades, John A

    2016-02-01

    For intramural hematoma and penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer, long-term behavior and treatment are controversial. This study evaluates the long-term behavior of intramural hematoma and penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer, including radiologic follow-up and survival analysis. Between 1995 and 2014, 108 patients (mean age, 70.8 ± 10 years; 56% female) presented with intramural hematoma or penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer to Yale-New Haven Hospital (New Haven, Conn). We reviewed the medical records, radiology, and online mortality databases. Ten of 55 patients (18%) with intramural hematoma and 17 of 53 patients (32%) with penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer had rupture state symptoms on admission, both greater than type A (8%) or type B dissection (4%) (P hematoma with follow-up imaging, 8 of 14 (57%) worsened (mean follow-up, 9.4 months) and 6 (43%) underwent late surgery. For patients with penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer with follow-up imaging, 6 of 20 (30%) worsened and underwent late surgery, and 11 (55%) showed no change (mean follow-up, 34.3 months). Overall survivals were 77%, 70%, 58%, and 33% at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively. No operative deaths occurred for patients with nonrupture state. Patients with penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer with initial surgical treatment had better long-term survival than patients treated medically (P = .037). In the intramural hematoma group, no such difference was observed (P = .10). At presentation, the incidence of early rupture of intramural hematoma and penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer was higher than for typical dissection. For branch vessels, intramural hematoma never occludes branch arteries. On imaging follow-up, patients with intramural hematoma and penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer rarely improved, with late surgery commonly needed. Better survival was observed for the initial surgical management of patients with penetrating atherosclerotic ulcer compared with initial medical management. Copyright © 2016

  13. Long-term behaviour of concrete in water saturated media - Experimental and modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peycelon, H; Mazoin, C

    2004-07-01

    In the context of the nuclear long-lived radioactive waste management, cement-based materials are currently used for waste encapsulation and containers development. Such materials are also likely to be used for engineered barriers in deep repositories. Various types of cement - CEM I, CEM V - have been currently studied, mainly to evaluate materials long-term durability. Studies have been performed on the leaching behavior of hardened cement pastes based on these cements. The effect of temperature is taking into account. Leaching experiments for 25 deg C, 50 deg C and 85 deg C were carried out with a standard test developed at CEA. Experimental results were analyzed and calculations were made to estimate calcium fluxes and degraded thicknesses. Experimental and modelling results were compared. (authors)

  14. Long term warranty and after sales service concept, policies and cost models

    CERN Document Server

    Rahman, Anisur

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents concepts, policies and cost models for various long-term warranty and maintenance contracts. It offers several numerical examples for estimating costs to both the manufacturer and consumer. Long-term warranties and maintenance contracts are becoming increasingly popular, as these types of aftersales services provide assurance to consumers that they can enjoy long, reliable service, and protect them from defects and the potentially high costs of repairs. Studying long-term warranty and service contracts is important to manufacturers and consumers alike, as offering long-term warranty and maintenance contracts produce additional costs for manufacturers / service providers over the product’s service life. These costs must be factored into the price, or the manufacturer / dealer will incur losses instead of making a profit. On the other hand, the buyer / consumer needs to weigh the cost of maintaining it over its service life and to decide whether or not these policies are worth purchasing....

  15. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

  16. Modelling the long-term durability of concrete barriers for radioactive waste disposals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerard, B.; Didry, O.; Marchand, J.; Gerard, B.; Breysse, D.; Hornain, H.

    1996-01-01

    In the past decades, cement-based materials have been increasingly used for the construction of radioactive-waste barriers. The design of durable structures for this specific application requires a precise knowledge of the evolution of the engineering properties of the materials over a 1000-year period. Given the intricate nature of the physical mechanisms involved, a reliable prediction of the long term behavior of the concrete barriers can only be made through modelling and numerical developments. After a brief literature survey in which the main aspects of the problem are outlined, the features of a new modelling approach are presented. The main originality of this approach resides in the fact that the model considers the various chemical and mechanical solicitations and their eventual couplings. The physical and thermodynamical bases behind the development of the model are detailed. A section of the paper is specifically devoted to the experimental techniques (accelerated leaching test, assessment of the permeability and mechanical behavior of concretes under tensile loading, characterization of the concrete microstructure and microcracking by image-analysis) designed to validate the model. Results of selected numerical simulations are presented in the last section of the paper. The main difficulties associated with the implantation of such a model in a finite-element code are discussed. (author)

  17. The effects of long-term dopaminergic treatment on locomotor behavior in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira de Almeida, Welinton Alessandro; Maculano Esteves, Andrea; Leite de Almeida-Júnior, Canuto; Lee, Kil Sun; Kannebley Frank, Miriam; Oliveira Mariano, Melise; Frussa-Filho, Roberto; Tufik, Sergio; Tulio de Mello, Marco

    2014-12-01

    Long-term treatments with dopaminergic agents are associated with adverse effects, including augmentation. Augmentation consists of an exacerbation of restless legs syndrome (a sleep-related movement disorder) symptoms during treatment compared to those experienced during the period before therapy was initiated. The objective of this study was to examine locomotor activity in rats after long-term dopaminergic treatment and its relationship with expression of the D2 receptor, in addition to demonstrating possible evidence of augmentation. The rats were divided into control (CTRL) and drug (Pramipexole-PPX) groups that received daily saline vehicle and PPX treatments, respectively, for 71 days. The locomotor behavior of the animals was evaluated weekly in the Open Field test for 71 days. The expression of the dopamine D2 receptor was evaluated by Western Blot analysis. The animals that received the PPX demonstrated a significant reduction in locomotor activity from day 1 to day 57 and a significant increase in immobility time from day 1 to day 64 relative to baseline values, but these values had returned to baseline levels at 71 days. No changes in the expression of the D2 receptor were demonstrated after treatment with a dopaminergic agonist. This study suggests changes in locomotor activity in rats after long-term PPX treatment that include an immediate reduction of locomotion and an increase in immobilization, and after 64 days, these values returned to baseline levels without evidence of augmentation. In addition, it was not possible to demonstrate a relationship between locomotor activity and the expression of D2 receptors under these conditions.

  18. The effects of long-term dopaminergic treatment on locomotor behavior in rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira de Almeida, Welinton Alessandro; Maculano Esteves, Andrea; Leite de Almeida-Júnior, Canuto; Lee, Kil Sun; Kannebley Frank, Miriam; Oliveira Mariano, Melise; Frussa-Filho, Roberto; Tufik, Sergio; Tulio de Mello, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Long-term treatments with dopaminergic agents are associated with adverse effects, including augmentation. Augmentation consists of an exacerbation of restless legs syndrome (a sleep-related movement disorder) symptoms during treatment compared to those experienced during the period before therapy was initiated. The objective of this study was to examine locomotor activity in rats after long-term dopaminergic treatment and its relationship with expression of the D2 receptor, in addition to demonstrating possible evidence of augmentation. The rats were divided into control (CTRL) and drug (Pramipexole—PPX) groups that received daily saline vehicle and PPX treatments, respectively, for 71 days. The locomotor behavior of the animals was evaluated weekly in the Open Field test for 71 days. The expression of the dopamine D2 receptor was evaluated by Western Blot analysis. The animals that received the PPX demonstrated a significant reduction in locomotor activity from day 1 to day 57 and a significant increase in immobility time from day 1 to day 64 relative to baseline values, but these values had returned to baseline levels at 71 days. No changes in the expression of the D2 receptor were demonstrated after treatment with a dopaminergic agonist. This study suggests changes in locomotor activity in rats after long-term PPX treatment that include an immediate reduction of locomotion and an increase in immobilization, and after 64 days, these values returned to baseline levels without evidence of augmentation. In addition, it was not possible to demonstrate a relationship between locomotor activity and the expression of D2 receptors under these conditions. PMID:26483930

  19. The effects of long-term dopaminergic treatment on locomotor behavior in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Welinton Alessandro Oliveira de Almeida

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Long-term treatments with dopaminergic agents are associated with adverse effects, including augmentation. Augmentation consists of an exacerbation of restless legs syndrome (a sleep-related movement disorder symptoms during treatment compared to those experienced during the period before therapy was initiated. The objective of this study was to examine locomotor activity in rats after long-term dopaminergic treatment and its relationship with expression of the D2 receptor, in addition to demonstrating possible evidence of augmentation. The rats were divided into control (CTRL and drug (Pramipexole—PPX groups that received daily saline vehicle and PPX treatments, respectively, for 71 days. The locomotor behavior of the animals was evaluated weekly in the Open Field test for 71 days. The expression of the dopamine D2 receptor was evaluated by Western Blot analysis. The animals that received the PPX demonstrated a significant reduction in locomotor activity from day 1 to day 57 and a significant increase in immobility time from day 1 to day 64 relative to baseline values, but these values had returned to baseline levels at 71 days. No changes in the expression of the D2 receptor were demonstrated after treatment with a dopaminergic agonist. This study suggests changes in locomotor activity in rats after long-term PPX treatment that include an immediate reduction of locomotion and an increase in immobilization, and after 64 days, these values returned to baseline levels without evidence of augmentation. In addition, it was not possible to demonstrate a relationship between locomotor activity and the expression of D2 receptors under these conditions.

  20. Chronic dietary chlorpyrifos causes long-term spatial memory impairment and thigmotaxic behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Granero, Caridad; Ruiz-Muñoz, Ana M; Nieto-Escámez, Francisco A; Colomina, María T; Aschner, Michael; Sánchez-Santed, Fernando

    2016-03-01

    Little is known about the long-term effects of chronic exposure to low-level organophosphate (OP) pesticides, and the role of neurotransmitter systems, other than the cholinergic system, in mediating OP neurotoxicity. In this study, rats were administered 5mg/kg/day of chlorpyrifos (CPF) for 6 months commencing at 3-months-of-age. The animals were examined 7 months later (at 16-months-of-age) for spatial learning and memory in the Morris water maze (MWM) and locomotor activity. In addition, we assessed the chronic effects of CPF on glutamatergic and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABAergic) function using pharmacological challenges with dizocilpine (MK801) and diazepam. Impaired performance related to altered search patterns, including thigmotaxis and long-term spatial memory was noted in the MWM in animals exposed to CPF, pointing to dietary CPF-induced behavioral disturbances, such as anxiety. Twenty-four hours after the 31st session of repeated acquisition task, 0.1mg/kg MK801, an N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) antagonist was intraperitoneally (i.p.) injected for 4 consecutive days. Decreased latencies in the MWM in the control group were noted after two sessions with MK801 treatment. Once the MWM assessment was completed, animals were administered 0.1 or 0.2mg/kg of MK801 and 1 or 3mg/kg of diazepam i.p., and tested for locomotor activity. Both groups, the CPF dietary and control, displayed analogous performance in motor activity. In conclusion, our data point to a connection between the long-term spatial memory, thigmotaxic response and CPF long after the exposure ended. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer

    2006-01-01

    The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC

  2. Thermal behavior of neutron shielding material, NS-4-FR, under long term storage conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, N.; O-iwa, A.; Asano, R.; Horita, R.; Kusunoki, K.

    2004-01-01

    NS-4-FR, Epoxy-Resin, has been widely used as a neutron shielding material for casks. It is recognized that the resin will degrade during storage and loose weight under high temperature conditions. Most of the examinations for the resin degrading behavior were conducted with rather small bare resin specimens. However, the actual quantity of neutron shielding is quite large and is covered by the cask body. To confirm the degrading behavior of the resin under the long-term storage conditions, we performed the test on the specimen with the same cross-section as the actual design, Hitz B69. The resin test vessels were made out of stainless steel and equipped with flange

  3. Long term treadmill exercise performed to chronic social isolated rats regulate anxiety behavior without improving learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevik, Ozge Selin; Sahin, Leyla; Tamer, Lulufer

    2018-05-01

    The type and duration of exposure to stress is an important influence on emotional and cognitive functions. Learning is the adaptive response of the central nervous system that occurs in hippocampus which affects from environmental factors like exercise. In this study, we investigated effects of long term treadmill exercise on learning and behavior on chronic social isolated rat. Male Wistar rats (n = 32) randomly assigned into four groups: control, exercised, social isolation, social isolation + exercise during postnatal days (PNDs) 21-34. Social isolation protocol was applied during 14 days by placing rat in a cage one by one. Rats were exercised during 5 days, days were chosen randomly for overall 4 weeks (20, 30, 50, 60 min respectively). Finally, learning performance was evaluated by Morris water maze (MWM). Anxiety behavior was evaluated by Open field and elevated plus maze test. At the end of learning and behavior tests, the rats were decapitated to collect blood samples via intracardiac puncture and corticosterone analysis was performed with ELISA method. Animal weights and water consumption did not change significantly but food intake differed among groups. Corticosterone level did not change between groups. The frequency of entering to the target quadrant increased in exercised rat significantly. However, there was no difference in learning and memory in rats. Treadmill exercise reduced anxiety behavior significantly. Taken together these findings may point out that, long term treadmill exercise did not change learning and memory but reduced anxiety level of rat without changing corticosterone level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Study on effects of coupled phenomenon on long-term behavior for crystalline rock (Joint research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimoto, Kazushi; Ichikawa, Yasuaki; Matsui, Hiroya

    2017-11-01

    It is important to evaluate the stability of a repository for high-level radioactive waste not only during the design, construction and operation phases, but also during the post-closure period, for time frames likely exceeding several millennia or longer. The rock mass around the tunnels could be deformed through time in response to time dependent behavior such as creep and stress relaxation. On the other hand, it was revealed that chemical reaction of groundwater in rock has an influence on the long-term behavior. Therefore, an evaluation of the microcracks influencing on rock mechanical and chemical coupled phenomena is the issue to understand the past long-term behavior of rock mass. In view of above points, this study has been started as joint research with Okayama University from Fiscal Year 2016. In Fiscal Year 2016, several kinds of elastic wave velocity were measured using ultra sonic sensors and laser Doppler vibrometer to evaluate the anisotropy of different elastic wave in granite. The velocity measurements were carried out focused on transmitted wave and surface wave. The results showed that strong anisotropy was observed in transmitted P-wave velocity while weak anisotropy was observed in transmitted S-wave and group velocity estimated by surface velocity measurement. In addition, data obtained from surface velocity measurement was partitioned into transmitted and reflected waves and analyzed them in detail. It resulted that elastic wave due to mineral particles to compose granite was dispersed; however, significant dispersion was only observed at specific location. For the future study, understanding of the relationship between density and anisotropy of micro cracks also anisotropy and strong dispersion of group velocity is important subject to estimate the geometrical distribution of micro cracks in granitic rock. (author)

  5. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change with the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q. B.; Wang, Q. J.; Lei, M. F.

    2015-09-01

    It is known that the accuracies of medium- and long-term prediction of changes of length of day (LOD) based on the combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) decrease gradually. The leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model is more accurate and stable in medium- and long-term prediction, therefore it is used to forecast the LOD changes in this work. Then the LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) is used to compare the effectiveness of the LSAR and traditional AR methods. The predicted series resulted from the two models show that the prediction accuracy with the LSAR model is better than that from AR model in medium- and long-term prediction.

  6. Self-guided Change: The most common form of long-term, maintained health behavior change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, F Michler

    2018-01-01

    Millions of people change risky, health-related behaviors and maintain those changes. However, they often take years to change, and their unhealthy behaviors may harm themselves and others and constitute a significant cost to society. A review—similar in nature to a scoping review—was done of the literature related to long-term health behavior change in six areas: alcohol, cocaine and heroin misuse, gambling, smoking, and overeating. Based on the limited research available, reasons for change and strategies for changing and for maintaining change were also reviewed. Fifty years of research clearly indicate that as people age, in the case of alcohol, heroin and cocaine misuse, smoking, and gambling, 80–90 percent moderate or stop their unhealthy behaviors. The one exception is overeating; only 20 percent maintain their weight loss. Most of these changes, when they occur, appear to be the result of self-guided change. More ways to accelerate self-guided, health-related behavior change need to be developed and disseminated. PMID:29375888

  7. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2017-11-03

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

  8. Behavioral tagging is a general mechanism of long-term memory formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballarini, Fabricio; Moncada, Diego; Martinez, Maria Cecilia; Alen, Nadia; Viola, Haydée

    2009-08-25

    In daily life, memories are intertwined events. Little is known about the mechanisms involved in their interactions. Using two hippocampus-dependent (spatial object recognition and contextual fear conditioning) and one hippocampus-independent (conditioned taste aversion) learning tasks, we show that in rats subjected to weak training protocols that induce solely short term memory (STM), long term memory (LTM) is promoted and formed only if training sessions took place in contingence with a novel, but not familiar, experience occurring during a critical time window around training. This process requires newly synthesized proteins induced by novelty and reveals a general mechanism of LTM formation that begins with the setting of a "learning tag" established by a weak training. These findings represent the first comprehensive set of evidences indicating the existence of a behavioral tagging process that in analogy to the synaptic tagging and capture process, need the creation of a transient, protein synthesis-independent, and input specific tag.

  9. Parental divorce: long-term effects on mental health, family relations and adult sexual behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jónsson, F H; Njardvik, U; Olafsdóttir, G; Grétarsson, S J

    2000-06-01

    Specific long term effects of parental divorce were examined in a sample of 179 Icelanders, 20 to 30 years of age. The participants answered the Borromean Family Index, the Affect Balance Scale and a number of questions on sexual behavior and attitudes towards marriage and divorce. Results showed that compared to adults whose parents remained married, those of divorced parents reported more negative emotional experiences at the time of the study and had looser family ties. They also had greater number of short love affairs, had their first love affair at a younger age, had a greater number of sexual partners, and were younger at the time of their first sexual intercourse than adults whose parents remained married.

  10. Long-term BPA infusions. Evaluation in the rat brain tumor and rat spinal cord models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coderre, J.A.; Micca, P.L.; Nawrocky, M.M.; Joel, D.D.; Morris, G.M.

    2000-01-01

    In the BPA-based dose escalation clinical trial, the observations of tumor recurrence in areas of extremely high calculated tumor doses suggest that the BPA distribution is non-uniform. Longer (6-hour) i.v. infusions of BPA are evaluated in the rat brain tumor and spinal cord models to address the questions of whether long-term infusions are more effective against the tumor and whether long-term infusions are detrimental in the central nervous system. In the rat spinal cord, the 50% effective doses (ED 50 ) for myeloparesis were not significantly different after a single i.p. injection of BPA-fructose or a 6 hour i.v. infusion. In the rat 9L gliosarcoma brain tumor model, BNCT following 2-hr or 6-hr infusions of BPA-F produced similar levels of long term survival. (author)

  11. Long-term exposure to intranasal oxytocin in a mouse autism model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bales, K L; Solomon, M; Jacob, S; Crawley, J N; Silverman, J L; Larke, R H; Sahagun, E; Puhger, K R; Pride, M C; Mendoza, S P

    2014-11-11

    Oxytocin (OT) is a neuropeptide involved in mammalian social behavior. It is currently in clinical trials for the treatment of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Previous studies in healthy rodents (prairie voles and C57BL/6J mice) have shown that there may be detrimental effects of long-term intranasal administration, raising the questions about safety and efficacy. To investigate the effects of OT on the aspects of ASD phenotype, we conducted the first study of chronic intranasal OT in a well-validated mouse model of autism, the BTBR T+ Itpr3tf/J inbred strain (BTBR), which displays low sociability and high repetitive behaviors. BTBR and C57BL/6J (B6) mice (N=94) were administered 0.8  IU/kg of OT intranasally, daily for 30 days, starting on day 21. We ran a well-characterized set of behavioral tasks relevant to diagnostic and associated symptoms of autism, including juvenile reciprocal social interactions, three-chambered social approach, open-field exploratory activity, repetitive self-grooming and fear-conditioned learning and memory, some during and some post treatment. Intranasal OT did not improve autism-relevant behaviors in BTBR, except for female sniffing in the three-chambered social interaction test. Male saline-treated BTBR mice showed increased interest in a novel mouse, both in chamber time and sniffing time, whereas OT-treated male BTBR mice showed a preference for the novel mouse in sniffing time only. No deleterious effects of OT were detected in either B6 or BTBR mice, except possibly for the lack of a preference for the novel mouse's chamber in OT-treated male BTBR mice. These results highlight the complexity inherent in understanding the effects of OT on behavior. Future investigations of chronic intranasal OT should include a wider dose range and early developmental time points in both healthy rodents and ASD models to affirm the efficacy and safety of OT.

  12. Long-term lumen depreciation behavior and failure modes of multi-die array LEDs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayawardena, Asiri; Marcus, Daniel; Prugue, Ximena; Narendran, Nadarajah

    2013-09-01

    One of the main advantages of multi-die array light-emitting diodes (LEDs) is their high flux density. However, a challenge for using such a product in lighting fixture applications is the heat density and the need for thermal management to keep the junction temperatures of all the dies low for long-term reliable performance. Ten multi-die LED array samples for each product from four different manufacturers were subjected to lumen maintenance testing (as described in IES-LM-80-08), and their resulting lumen depreciation and failure modes were studied. The products were tested at the maximum case (or pin) temperature reported by the respective manufacturer by appropriately powering the LEDs. In addition, three samples for each product from two different manufacturers were subjected to rapid thermal cycling, and the resulting lumen depreciation and failure modes were studied. The results showed that the exponential lumen decay model using long-term lumen maintenance data as recommended in IES TM-21 does not fit for all package types. The failure of a string of dies and single die failure in a string were observed in some of the packages.

  13. Integrated modeling of long-term vegetation and hydrologic dynamics in Rocky Mountain watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Steven Ahl

    2007-01-01

    Changes in forest structure resulting from natural disturbances, or managed treatments, can have negative and long lasting impacts on water resources. To facilitate integrated management of forest and water resources, a System for Long-Term Integrated Management Modeling (SLIMM) was developed. By combining two spatially explicit, continuous time models, vegetation...

  14. Loners, Groupies, and Long-term Eccentricity (and Inclination) Behavior: Insights from Secular Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Laerhoven, Christa L.

    2015-05-01

    Considering the secular dynamics of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Secular interactions are those that don't involve knowing where a planet is along its orbit, and they dominate when planets are not involved in mean motion resonances. These interactions exchange angular momentum among the planets, evolving their eccentricities and inclinations. To second order in the planets' eccentricities and inclinations, the eccentricity and inclination perturbations are decoupled. Given the right variable choice, the relevant differential equations are linear and thus the eccentricity and inclination behaviors can be described as a sum of eigenmodes. Since the underlying structure of the secular eigenmodes can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in exoplanet systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. I have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods. Using this catalog of secular character, I will discuss the prevalence of dynamically grouped planets ('groupies') versus dynamically uncoupled planets ('loners') and how this relates to the exoplanets' long-term eccentricity and inclination behavior. I will also touch on the distribution of the secular eigenfreqiencies.

  15. Lithium prevents long-term neural and behavioral pathology induced by early alcohol exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadrian, B; Subbanna, S; Wilson, D A; Basavarajappa, B S; Saito, M

    2012-03-29

    Fetal alcohol exposure can cause developmental defects in offspring known as fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD). FASD symptoms range from obvious facial deformities to changes in neuroanatomy and neurophysiology that disrupt normal brain function and behavior. Ethanol exposure at postnatal day 7 in C57BL/6 mice induces neuronal cell death and long-lasting neurobehavioral dysfunction. Previous work has demonstrated that early ethanol exposure impairs spatial memory task performance into adulthood and perturbs local and interregional brain circuit integrity in the olfacto-hippocampal pathway. Here we pursue these findings to examine whether lithium prevents anatomical, neurophysiological, and behavioral pathologies that result from early ethanol exposure. Lithium has neuroprotective properties that have been shown to prevent ethanol-induced apoptosis. Here we show that mice co-treated with lithium on the same day as ethanol exposure exhibit dramatically reduced acute neurodegeneration in the hippocampus and retain hippocampal-dependent spatial memory as adults. Lithium co-treatment also blocked ethanol-induced disruption in synaptic plasticity in slice recordings of hippocampal CA1 in the adult mouse brain. Moreover, long-lasting dysfunctions caused by ethanol in olfacto-hippocampal networks, including sensory-evoked oscillations and resting state coherence, were prevented in mice co-treated with lithium. Together, these results provide behavioral and physiological evidence that lithium is capable of preventing or reducing immediate and long-term deleterious consequences of early ethanol exposure on brain function. Copyright © 2012 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Phenomenological study on crystalline rock for evaluating of long-term behavior (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okubo, Seisuke; Seno, Yasuhiro; Hirano, Toru; Matsui, Hiroya; Nakama, Shigeo

    2008-08-01

    The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is conducting the Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU) Project in order to develop comprehensive geological investigation and engineering techniques for deep underground applications (e.g. repository of HLW). The purpose of this study is to contribute to the evaluation of the mechanical stability of a research drift and to plan the future studies. Rock shows time-dependent behavior such as creep/relaxation. For the shaft and gallery of the geological disposal for the radioactive waste, the mechanical stability over a period of thousands of years is demanded not only during construction and operation but also after back-filling. So, to understand the time-dependent behavior of rock is very important for evaluating the long-term mechanical stability. This study is aiming to find out the mechanism of time-dependent behavior of rock such as creep by the precision test, observation and measurement, to develop the evaluating method of long-term behavior of rock mass, and to get the information for planning the study of the Phase III (Operation Phase) at the Mizunami URL. In the previous work conducted before this fiscal year 2007, we improved the testing technique and started test of Toki granite sampled from target site. Furthermore we studied the in-situ measurement method for evaluating the scatter of rock properties. This report describes the results of the works in the fiscal year 2007. In Chapter 1, we described the overview and background of this study. In Chapter 2, the result of continuing creep test of Tage tuff which was started from the fiscal year 1997 was described. Although there was some annual variability, the precious data were obtained. In Chapter 3, the control program for the generalized relaxation test was developed. The generalized relaxation test of Toki granite was conducted in order to get basically data. In Chapter 4, the extended constitutive equation of variable compliance was analytically

  17. Long-Term Outcomes of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Adolescent Body Dysmorphic Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krebs, Georgina; de la Cruz, Lorena Fernández; Monzani, Benedetta; Bowyer, Laura; Anson, Martin; Cadman, Jacinda; Heyman, Isobel; Turner, Cynthia; Veale, David; Mataix-Cols, David

    2017-07-01

    Emerging evidence suggests that cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is an efficacious treatment for adolescent body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in the short term, but longer-term outcomes remain unknown. The current study aimed to follow up a group of adolescents who had originally participated in a randomized controlled trial of CBT for BDD to determine whether treatment gains were maintained. Twenty-six adolescents (mean age = 16.2, SD = 1.6) with a primary diagnosis of BDD received a course of developmentally tailored CBT and were followed up over 12 months. Participants were assessed at baseline, midtreatment, posttreatment, 2-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up. The primary outcome measure was the clinician-rated Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale Modified for BDD. Secondary outcomes included measures of insight, depression, quality of life, and global functioning. BDD symptoms decreased significantly from pre- to posttreatment and remained stable over the 12-month follow-up. At this time point, 50% of participants were classified as responders and 23% as remitters. Participants remained significantly improved on all secondary outcomes at 12-month follow-up. Neither baseline insight nor baseline depression predicted long-term outcomes. The positive effects of CBT appear to be durable up to 12-month follow-up. However, the majority of patients remained symptomatic and vulnerable to a range of risks at 12-month follow-up, indicating that longer-term monitoring is advisable in this population. Future research should focus on enhancing the efficacy of CBT in order to improve long-term outcomes. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Human Albumin Improves Long-Term Behavioral Sequelae After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Through Neurovascular Remodeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yi; Liu, Wenhua; Zhang, Xiaohao; Wang, Liumin; Xu, Lili; Xiong, Yunyun; Yang, Lian; Sang, Hongfei; Ye, Ruidong; Liu, Xinfeng

    2015-10-01

    Subarachnoid hemorrhage results in significant long-lasting neurologic sequelae. Here, we investigated whether human albumin improves long-term outcomes in experimental subarachnoid hemorrhage and whether neurovascular remodeling is involved in the protection of albumin. Laboratory investigation. Hospital research laboratory. Male Sprague-Dawley rats. Rats underwent subarachnoid hemorrhage by endovascular perforation. Albumin of either 0.63 or 1.25 g/kg was injected IV immediately after the surgery. Modified Garcia test, beam-walking test, novel object recognition, and Morris water maze were employed to determine the behavioral deficits. The effects of albumin on early neurovascular dysfunction and chronic synaptic plasticity were also studied. Both doses of albumin significantly improved the sensorimotor scores (F = 31.277; p = 0.001) and cognitive performance (F = 7.982; p = 0.001 in novel object recognition test; and F = 3.431; p = 0.026 in the latency analysis of Morris water maze test) for at least 40 days after subarachnoid hemorrhage. There were remarkable microvasculature hypoperfusion, intracranial pressure rise, early vasoconstriction, neural apoptosis, and degeneration in subarachnoid hemorrhage rats, with albumin significantly attenuating such neurovascular dysfunction. Furthermore, albumin markedly prevented blood-brain barrier disruption, as indicated by less blood-brain barrier leakage, preserved blood-brain barrier-related proteins, and dampened gelatinase activities. The expressions of key synaptic elements were up-regulated with albumin supplementation in both acute and chronic phases. Accordingly, a higher dendritic spine density was observed in the prefrontal and hippocampal areas of albumin-treated subarachnoid hemorrhage animals. Albumin at low-to-moderate doses markedly improves long-term neurobehavioral sequelae after subarachnoid hemorrhage, which may involve an integrated process of neurovascular remodeling.

  19. Addressing homelessness among people with mental illnesses: a model of long-term philanthropic effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brousseau, Ruth Tebbets

    2009-01-01

    Foundations are often criticized for their short attention spans and inability to continue funding the toughest social problems. Homelessness among people with mental illnesses is considered among the most intractable of social issues. This paper explores the role of permanent supportive housing in reducing homelessness among the mentally ill; the role of the Corporation for Supportive Housing in developing, authenticating, and disseminating its model; and its long-term funding relationship with the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation, which has facilitated this trajectory. The paper tells the story of how long-term funding, strategically used, is making inroads into this serious mental health problem.

  20. Theoretical study on crystalline rock for evaluating of long-term behavior (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki; Seno, Yasuhiro; Sato, Toshinori; Nakama, Shigeo

    2008-03-01

    The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is working on the Project of Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory (MIU). The project aims at developing comprehensive techniques of geological investigation and of construction of deep underground space for a repository of HLW and/or TRU. This study contributes to an estimation of long-term stability of underground spaces. Rock materials commonly show time-dependent behavior such as creep and relaxation. The underground structures for geological disposal of radioactive wastes must keep stable not only during construction and operation but also after closing, and then the long-term stability of rock structures (over thousands of years) is essentially important for designing the structures. The true mechanism of time-dependent behavior of rock materials is not yet clearly understood, though the phenomena are widely known. This study aims at elucidating the scientific truth involved in the time-dependent behavior of rock showing creep and relaxation. We used samples of Toki granite and performed precise tests under laser microscope observation, and then developed theories representing the experimental results. These experimental and theoretical results will be served for the design and construction of the Phase III (Operation Phase) of the MIU Project. This is the report worked out in the fiscal year 2006. In this work we performed the following subjects: 1) Uniaxial and stress relaxation tests under observation of a confocal laser scanning microscope (CLSM) by using granite specimens of MIU. 2) Pressure dissolution experiment by using specimens of single crystal quartz and glass beads. 3) Development of the rate of pressure dissolution of quartz and a homogenization analysis for quartz dissolution. In Chapter 2 CLSM was used to acquire clear three-dimensional images of Mizunami granite specimens for uniaxial and stress relaxation tests, and observed the change of microscale structure including the mineral configuration under

  1. User Acceptance of Long-Term Evolution (LTE) Services: An Application of Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eunil; Kim, Ki Joon

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated path model in order to explore user acceptance of long-term evolution (LTE) services by examining potential causal relationships between key psychological factors and user intention to use the services. Design/methodology/approach: Online survey data collected from 1,344 users are analysed…

  2. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1990-01-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

  3. Long-term perspectives on world metal use - a model-based approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren DP; Strengers BJ; Vries HJM de; MNV

    1999-01-01

    In this report, a system dynamics model is described, which simulates long-term trends in the production and consumption of metals (i.e. iron/steel and an aggregate of metals of medium abundance) in relation to impacts such as ore-grade decline, capital and energy requirements and waste flows. This

  4. Grain Growth and Precipitation Behavior of Iridium Alloy DOP-26 During Long Term Aging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierce, Dean T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Muralidharan, Govindarajan [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fox, Ethan E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cox, Victoria A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Geer, Tom [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-05-01

    The influence of long term aging on grain growth and precipitate sizes and spatial distribution in iridium alloy DOP-26 was studied. Samples of DOP-26 were fabricated using the new process, recrystallized for 1 hour (h) at 1375 C, then aged at either 1300, 1400, or 1500 C for times ranging from 50 to 10,000 h. Grain size measurements (vertical and horizontal mean linear intercept and horizontal and vertical projection) and analyses of iridium-thorium precipitates (size and spacing) were made on the longitudinal, transverse, and rolling surfaces of the as-recrystallized and aged specimens from which the two-dimensional spatial distribution and mean sizes of the precipitates were obtained. The results obtained from this study are intended to provide input to grain growth models.

  5. Long-Term Refugee Health: Health Behaviors and Outcomes of Cambodian Refugee and Immigrant Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson-Peterman, Jerusha L.; Toof, Robin; Liang, Sidney L.; Grigg-Saito, Dorcas C.

    2015-01-01

    Refugees in the United States have high rates of chronic disease. Both long-term effects of the refugee experience and adjustment to the U.S. health environment may contribute. While there is significant research on health outcomes of newly resettled refugees and long-term mental health experiences of established refugees, there is currently…

  6. Long-term effects of ionizing radiation on gene expression in a zebrafish model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lahcen Jaafar

    Full Text Available Understanding how initial radiation injury translates into long-term effects is an important problem in radiation biology. Here, we define a set of changes in the transcription profile that are associated with the long-term response to radiation exposure. The study was performed in vivo using zebrafish, an established radiobiological model organism. To study the long-term response, 24 hour post-fertilization embryos were exposed to 0.1 Gy (low dose or 1.0 Gy (moderate dose of whole-body gamma radiation and allowed to develop for 16 weeks. Liver mRNA profiles were then analyzed using the Affymetrix microarray platform, with validation by quantitative PCR. As a basis for comparison, 16-week old adults were exposed at the same doses and analyzed after 4 hours. Statistical analysis was performed in a way to minimize the effects of multiple comparisons. The responses to these two treatment regimes differed greatly: 360 probe sets were associated primarily with the long-term response, whereas a different 2062 probe sets were associated primarily with the response when adults of the same age were irradiated 4 hours before exposure. Surprisingly, a ten-fold difference in radiation dose (0.1 versus 1.0 Gy had little effect. Analysis at the gene and pathway level indicated that the long-term response includes the induction of cytokine and inflammatory regulators and transcription and growth factors. The acute response includes the induction of p53 target genes and modulation of the hypoxia-induced transcription factor-C/EBP axis. Results help define genes and pathways affected in the long-term, low and moderate dose radiation response and differentiate them from those affected in an acute response in the same tissue.

  7. Modelling the long-term deployment of electricity storage in the global energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    The current development of wind and solar power sources calls for an improvement of long-term energy models. Indeed, high shares of variable wind and solar productions have short- and long-term impacts on the power system, requiring the development of flexibility options: fast-reacting power plants, demand response, grid enhancement or electricity storage. Our first main contribution is the modelling of electricity storage and grid expansion in the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We set up new investment mechanisms, where storage development is based on several combined economic values. After categorising the long-term energy models and the power sector modelling tools in a common typology, we showed the need for a better integration of both approaches. Therefore, the second major contribution of our work is the yearly coupling of POLES to a short-term optimisation of the power sector operation, with the European Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (EUCAD). The two-way data exchange allows the long-term coherent scenarios of POLES to be directly backed by the short-term technical detail of EUCAD. Our results forecast a strong and rather quick development of the cheapest flexibility options: grid interconnections, pumped hydro storage and demand response programs, including electric vehicle charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid storage. The more expensive battery storage presumably finds enough system value in the second half of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving the fixed costs of batteries impacts more the investments than improving their efficiency. We also show the explicit dependency between storage and variable renewable energy sources. (author) [fr

  8. Assessments of long term mechanical behavior of CANDU fuel channel by means of PFEM analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Florea, S.; Pavelescu, M.

    2005-01-01

    Structural analysis with finite elements method is today a usual way to evaluate and predict the behavior of structural assemblies exposed to severe conditions, in order to ensure their safety end reliability. CANDU 600 fuel channel is an example in which long time irradiation with implicit consequences on material properties evolution interfere with the corrosion and thermal aggression. A high degree of uncertainty in the evolution of the material's properties must be considered. These are the reasons for developing, in association with deterministic evaluations with computer codes, the probabilistic and statistical methods, in order to predict the structural components response. In INR (Institute of Nuclear Research) in the past years, a code for thermo-mechanical analysis of the fuel channel from CANDU 600 nuclear power plant of Cernavoda was developed using finite element methods (FEM). The CANTUP code evaluate the stress and strain state of the mechanical assembly of fuel channel, considered to be divided into pressure tube, calandria tube and four spacers, supposed to be equidistantly distributed along the pressure tube. The main achievement obtained with this code was the prediction of the long-term behavior of the sag of the pressure tube, by analysis in which the creep phenomenon and the contact between the spacers and calandria tube were considered. This reason has sustained the attempt to estimate the possibility to use this code in order to perform probabilistic evaluations. (authors)

  9. Assessments of long term mechanical behavior of CANDU fuel channel by means of PFEM analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Florea, S.; Pavelescu, M.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Structural analysis with finite elements method is today a usual way to evaluate and predict the behavior of structural assemblies exposed to severe conditions, in order to ensure their safety end reliability. CANDU 600 fuel channel is an example in which long time irradiation with implicit consequences on material properties evolution interfere with the corrosion and thermal aggression. A high degree of uncertainty in the evolution of the material's properties must be considered. These are the reasons for developing, in association with deterministic evaluations with computer codes, the probabilistic and statistical methods, in order to predict the structural components response. In INR (Institute of Nuclear Research) in the past years, a code for thermo-mechanical analysis of the fuel channel from CANDU 600 nuclear power plant of Cernavoda was developed using finite element methods (FEM). The CANTUP code evaluate the stress and strain state of the mechanical assembly of fuel channel, considered to be divided into pressure tube, calandria tube and four spacers, supposed to be equidistantly distributed along the pressure tube. The main achievement obtained with this code was the prediction of the long-term behavior of the sag of the pressure tube, by analysis in which the creep phenomenon and the contact between the spacers and calandria tube were considered. This reason has sustained the attempt to estimate the possibility to use this code in order to perform probabilistic evaluations. (authors)

  10. Long-term cognitive and behavioral consequences of neonatal encephalopathy following perinatal asphyxia: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaab, Hanna; de Vries, Linda S.; Jongmans, Marian J.

    2007-01-01

    Neonatal encephalopathy (NE) following perinatal asphyxia (PA) is considered an important cause of later neurodevelopmental impairment in infants born at term. This review discusses long-term consequences for general cognitive functioning, educational achievement, neuropsychological functioning and behavior. In all areas reviewed, the outcome of children with mild NE is consistently positive and the outcome of children with severe NE consistently negative. However, children with moderate NE form a more heterogeneous group with respect to outcome. On average, intelligence scores are below those of children with mild NE and age-matched peers, but within the normal range. With respect to educational achievement, difficulties have been found in the domains reading, spelling and arithmetic/mathematics. So far, studies of neuropsychological functioning have yielded ambiguous results in children with moderate NE. A few studies suggest elevated rates of hyperactivity in children with moderate NE and autism in children with moderate and severe NE. Conclusion: Behavioral monitoring is required for all children with NE. In addition, systematic, detailed neuropsychological examination is needed especially for children with moderate NE. PMID:17426984

  11. Medium- and Long-term Prediction of LOD Change by the Leap-step Autoregressive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qijie

    2015-08-01

    The accuracy of medium- and long-term prediction of length of day (LOD) change base on combined least-square and autoregressive (LS+AR) deteriorates gradually. Leap-step autoregressive (LSAR) model can significantly reduce the edge effect of the observation sequence. Especially, LSAR model greatly improves the resolution of signals’ low-frequency components. Therefore, it can improve the efficiency of prediction. In this work, LSAR is used to forecast the LOD change. The LOD series from EOP 08 C04 provided by IERS is modeled by both the LSAR and AR models. The results of the two models are analyzed and compared. When the prediction length is between 10-30 days, the accuracy improvement is less than 10%. When the prediction length amounts to above 30 day, the accuracy improved obviously, with the maximum being around 19%. The results show that the LSAR model has higher prediction accuracy and stability in medium- and long-term prediction.

  12. A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Castro, Mário; Cancho, Vicente G; Rodrigues, Josemar

    2010-02-01

    In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. In this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Effects of long-term elevated temperature on covering, sheltering and righting behaviors of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lisheng; Zhang, Lingling; Shi, Dongtao; Wei, Jing; Chang, Yaqing

    2017-01-01

    Increases in ocean temperature due to climate change are predicted to change the behaviors of marine invertebrates. Altered behaviors of keystone ecosystem engineers such as echinoderms will have consequences for the fitness of individuals, which are expected to flow on to the local ecosystem. Relatively few studies have investigated the behavioral responses of echinoderms to long-term elevated temperature. We investigated the effects of exposure to long-term (∼31 weeks) elevated temperature (∼3 °C above the ambient water temperature) on covering, sheltering and righting behaviors of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius. Long-term elevated temperature showed different effects on the three behaviors. It significantly decreased covering behavior, including both covering behavior reaction (time to first covering) and ability (number of covered sea urchins and number of shells used for covering). Conversely, exposure to long-term elevated temperature significantly increased sheltering behavior. Righting response in S. intermedius was not significantly different between temperature treatments. The results provide new information into behavioral responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. PMID:28348933

  14. Long-term behavior of glass-ceramic zirconolite; Etude du comportement a long terme des vitrocristallins a base de zirconolite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Ch

    2003-07-01

    This work is a part of the investigation of new containment matrices considered for specific conditioning of radionuclides after separation. The aim was to demonstrate the long-term aqueous corrosion resistance of the glass-ceramic zirconolite considered for the conditioning of plutonium and the minor actinides. This material is composed of crystals of zirconolite (CaZrTi{sub 2}O{sub 7}) dispersed in a residual vitreous phase. It appears that glass-ceramic zirconolite presents a better kinetic behavior than the nuclear glass R 7T7. This is mainly due to a more important rate decrease that occurs more rapidly, that induces a quantity of glass altered at least 10 times as small as for R 7T7 glass. This high slowdown of the alteration rate is attributed to the formation of an alteration film that has been the subject of a specific study. We have demonstrated that the rate decrease was controlled as for the R7T7 glass by the amorphous phase of the alteration film forming a diffusion barrier for reactive species. It seems that the porosity is not the single parameter that explains the protective effect of the gel. The main differences compared with R7T7 glass are that silicon does not control the alteration of the material and that the gel is composed of two distinct phases. We have in particular identified a dense phase enriched in titanium and neodymium that probably influences deeply the kinetics. (author)

  15. Protective effects of long-term lithium administration in a slowly progressive SMA mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagioni, Francesca; Ferrucci, Michela; Ryskalin, Larisa; Fulceri, Federica; Lazzeri, Gloria; Calierno, Maria Teresa; Busceti, Carla L; Ruffoli, Riccardo; Fornai, Francesco

    2017-12-01

    In the present study we evaluated the long-term effects of lithium administration to a knock-out double transgenic mouse model (Smn-/-; SMN1A2G+/-; SMN2+/+) of Spinal Muscle Atrophy type III (SMA-III). This model is characterized by very low levels of the survival motor neuron protein, slow disease progression and motor neuron loss, which enables to detect disease-modifying effects at delayed time intervals. Lithium administration attenuates the decrease in motor activity and provides full protection from motor neuron loss occurring in SMA-III mice, throughout the disease course. In addition, lithium prevents motor neuron enlargement and motor neuron heterotopy and suppresses the occurrence of radial-like glial fibrillary acidic protein immunostaining in the ventral white matter of SMA-III mice. In SMA-III mice long-term lithium administration determines a dramatic increase of survival motor neuron protein levels in the spinal cord. These data demonstrate that long-term lithium administration during a long-lasting motor neuron disorder attenuates behavioural deficit and neuropathology. Since low level of survival motor neuron protein is bound to disease severity in SMA, the robust increase in protein level produced by lithium provides solid evidence which calls for further investigations considering lithium in the long-term treatment of spinal muscle atrophy.

  16. Behavior Change Strategies for Successful Long-Term Weight Loss: Focusing on Dietary and Physical Activity Adherence, Not Weight Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongu, Nobuko; Kataura, Martha P.; Block, Linda M.

    2011-01-01

    This article helps Extension professionals guide individuals in a successful long-term weight loss program. A program should focus on behavioral changes (improving eating habits and physical activity), not just weight loss. In order to do this, Extension professionals should implement behavior change strategies that motivate individuals to…

  17. Behavior of high burnup fuel rod cladding during long-term dry storage in CASTOR casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaberg, A.; Spilker, H.; Goll, W.

    2000-01-01

    Short-time creep and rupture tests were performed to assess the strain potential of cladding of high burnt rods under conditions of dry storage. The tests comprised optimized Zr y-4 cladding samples from fuel rods irradiated to burnups of up to 64 MWd/kg U and were carried out at temperatures of 573 and 643 K at cladding stresses of about 400 and 600 MPa. The stresses, much higher than those occurring in a fuel rod, were chosen to reach circumferential elongations of about 2% within an envisaged testing time of 3-4 days. The creep tests were followed by a low temperature test at 423 K and 100 MPa to assess the long-term behavior of the cladding ductility especially with regard to the effect of a higher hydrogen content in the cladding due to the high burnup. The creep tests showed considerable uniform plastic elongations at these high burnups. It was demonstrated that around 600 K a uniform plastic strain of a least 2% is reached without cladding failure. The low temperature tests at 423 K for up to 5 days revealed no cladding failure under these conditions of reduced cladding ductility. It can be concluded that the increased hydrogen content has no adverse effect on cladding performance. (Authors)

  18. Using Psychodynamic, Cognitive Behavioral, and Control Mastery Prototypes to Predict Change: A New Look at an Old Paradigm for Long-Term Single-Case Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pole, Nnamdi; Ablon, J. Stuart; O'Connor, Lynn E.

    2008-01-01

    This article illustrates a method of testing models of change in individual long-term psychotherapy cases. A depressed client was treated with 208 sessions of control mastery therapy (CMT), an unmanualized approach that integrates elements of psychodynamic therapy (PDT) and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Panels of experts developed prototypes…

  19. Long-term cognitive and behavioral consequences of neonatal encephalopathy following perinatal asphyxia: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Handel, M.; Swaab, H.; de Vries, L.S.; Jongmans, M.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/258268743

    2007-01-01

    Neonatal encephalopathy (NE) following perinatal asphyxia (PA) is considered an important cause of later neurodevelopmental impairment in infants born at term. This review discusses long-term consequences for general cognitive functioning, educational achievement, neuropsychological functioning and

  20. Monitoring and modeling of long-term settlements of an experimental landfill in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Gustavo Ferreira; Catapreta, Cícero Antônio Antunes

    2013-02-01

    Settlement evaluation in sanitary landfills is a complex process, due to the waste heterogeneity, time-varying properties and influencing factors and mechanisms, such as mechanical compression due to load application and creep, and physical-chemical and biological processes caused by the wastes decomposition. Many empirical models for the analysis of long-term settlement in landfills are reported in the literature. This paper presents the results of a settlement monitoring program carried out during 6 years in Belo Horizonte experimental landfill. Different sets of field data were used to calibrate three long-term settlement prediction models (rheological, hyperbolic and composite). The parameters obtained in the calibration were used to predict the settlements and to compare with actual field data. During the monitoring period of 6 years, significant vertical strains were observed (of up to 31%) in relation to the initial height of the experimental landfill. The results for the long-term settlement prediction obtained by the hyperbolic and rheological models significantly underestimate the settlements, regardless the period of data used in the calibration. The best fits were obtained with the composite model, except when 1 year field data were used in the calibration. The results of the composite model indicate settlements stabilization at larger times and with larger final settlements when compared to the hyperbolic and rheological models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Little is known about the long-term influence of periglacial processes on landscape evolution in cold areas, even though the efficiency of frost cracking on the breakdown of rocks has been documented by observations and experiments. Cold-room laboratory experiments show that a continuous water...... supply and sustained sub- zero temperatures are essential to develop fractures in porous rocks (e.g. Murton, 2006), but the cracking efficiency for harder rock types under natural conditions is less clear. However, based on experimental results for porous rocks, Hales and Roering (2007) proposed a model...... by their model and the elevation of scree deposits in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. This result suggests a link between frost-cracking efficiency and long-term landscape evolution and thus merits further investigations. Anderson et al. (2012) expanded this early model by including the effects of latent heat...

  2. Government Debt and the Long-Term Interest Rate: Application of an Extended Open-Economy Loanable Funds Model to Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Hsing

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the behavior of the long-term interest rate in Poland based on a sample during 2001.Q1–2009.Q1. Both the demand for and supply of loanable funds are considered. Extending the openeconomy loanable funds model, this paper finds thatmore government debt as a percent of gdp leads to a higher long-term interest rate in Poland and that a higher real Treasury bill rate, more percent change in real GDP, a higher expected inflation rate, a higher world long-term interest rate, and ...

  3. Time-Dependent Global Sensitivity Analysis for Long-Term Degeneracy Model Using Polynomial Chaos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbin Guo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Global sensitivity is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the output variability of static models in general. However, very few approaches can be applied for the sensitivity analysis of long-term degeneracy models, as far as time-dependent reliability is concerned. The reason is that the static sensitivity may not reflect the completed sensitivity during the entire life circle. This paper presents time-dependent global sensitivity analysis for long-term degeneracy models based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE. Sobol’ indices are employed as the time-dependent global sensitivity since they provide accurate information on the selected uncertain inputs. In order to compute Sobol’ indices more efficiently, this paper proposes a moving least squares (MLS method to obtain the time-dependent PCE coefficients with acceptable simulation effort. Then Sobol’ indices can be calculated analytically as a postprocessing of the time-dependent PCE coefficients with almost no additional cost. A test case is used to show how to conduct the proposed method, then this approach is applied to an engineering case, and the time-dependent global sensitivity is obtained for the long-term degeneracy mechanism model.

  4. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies; Modeliser le long terme dans un monde de second rang: application aux politiques climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crassous, R

    2008-11-15

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks.

  5. Study on effects of coupled phenomenon on long-term behavior for crystalline rock. FY2015 (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yasuaki; Kimoto, Kazushi; Matsui, Hiroya; Kuwabara, Kazumichi; Ozaki, Yusuke

    2016-12-01

    It is important to evaluate the stability of a repository for high-level radioactive waste not only during the design, construction and operation phases, but also during the post-closure period, for time frames likely exceeding several millennia or longer. The rock mass around the tunnels could be deformed through time in response to time dependent behavior such as creep and stress relaxation. On the other hand, it was revealed that the chemical reaction of groundwater in a rock had an influence on the long-term behavior. An evaluation of the microcracks to have an influence on rock mechanical and chemical coupled phenomena is the issue the past long-term behavior for rock study. In fiscal year 2015, using a laser Doppler vibrometer that extends a frequency band up to 20 MHz, and measuring the surface wave transmitted through the granite specimens were estimated group velocity. As a result, group velocity until 100 kHz ∼ 500 kHz, revealed that tends to decrease while vibrating. Estimation of the group velocity from the group delay, by using the spatially averaged waveform has improved estimated frequency band and reliability. For this reason, the estimation of the group velocity from the group delay has also been shown to be easier than estimated by the wave number - frequency spectrum. As a result obtained, in the case of the modeling by the viscoelastic theory of the granite and a microcrack nondestructiveness evaluation, it is thought that it is useful information in the future. In order to use the knowledge of this study, there is a need to clarify the correspondence between the microscopic properties of the medium such as a crack and crystal grain and the change of the group velocity. (author)

  6. Public Perspectives Toward the Sexual Behavior of an Individual With Dementia Residing in Long-Term Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yelland, Erin L; Cless, Adam W; Mallory, Allen B; Cless, Jessica D

    2018-06-01

    This study examines public perspectives toward sexual behavior within a heterosexually married couple in which one individual has dementia and resides in a long-term care facility. Respondents included 318 adults in the Southern United States. Paired sample t tests were used to understand how the diagnosis of dementia statistically influenced participants' responses, and a logistic regression model was used to understand how a vignette character's sex and respondent characteristics influenced attitudes. Fifty-eight percent of respondents believed that a sexual relationship should be permitted for an adult with dementia, and t tests revealed that dementia had a statistical effect on participants' responses. Sex of the vignette character was not a predictor of attitudes. Participant's qualitative rationales are offered for additional insight. Respondents who felt that a couple should not engage in a sexual relationship commonly cited consent-related issues as their primary concern. Implications for policy development are discussed.

  7. Parameter values for the long-term nuclear waste management food chain model LIMCAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto.

    1982-09-01

    Eighteen parameters of LIMCAL, a comprehensive food chain model for predicting ICRP 26 50-year committed effective dose equivalents to man due to long-term nuclear waste management are reviewed. The parameters are: soil bulk density, plowlayer depth, soil surface layer depth, resusupension factor, atmospheric dust load, deposition velocity, plant interception fraction, plant environmental half-time, translocation factor, time of above-ground exposure, plant yield, holdup time, animals' feed consumption rate, animals' water consumption rate, man's water consumption rate, food type calorie conversion factors, man's total caloric intake rate and food type calorie fractions. LIMCAL has both traditional and unique parameters. The former occur in most of the currently used assessment models for nuclear installations, whereas the latter do not. For each of the parameters of LIMCAL, a suitable generic value for long-term nuclear waste management was determined. Thus, the general literature and the values currently used or recommended by various agencies were reviewed

  8. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  9. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  10. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  11. Long-term reorganization of structural brain networks in a rabbit model of intrauterine growth restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batalle, Dafnis; Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Arbat-Plana, Ariadna; Illa, Miriam; Figueras, Francesc; Eixarch, Elisenda; Gratacos, Eduard

    2014-10-15

    Characterization of brain changes produced by intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is among the main challenges of modern fetal medicine and pediatrics. This condition affects 5-10% of all pregnancies and is associated with a wide range of neurodevelopmental disorders. Better understanding of the brain reorganization produced by IUGR opens a window of opportunity to find potential imaging biomarkers in order to identify the infants with a high risk of having neurodevelopmental problems and apply therapies to improve their outcomes. Structural brain networks obtained from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a promising tool to study brain reorganization and to be used as a biomarker of neurodevelopmental alterations. In the present study this technique is applied to a rabbit animal model of IUGR, which presents some advantages including a controlled environment and the possibility to obtain high quality MRI with long acquisition times. Using a Q-Ball diffusion model, and a previously published rabbit brain MRI atlas, structural brain networks of 15 IUGR and 14 control rabbits at 70 days of age (equivalent to pre-adolescence human age) were obtained. The analysis of graph theory features showed a decreased network infrastructure (degree and binary global efficiency) associated with IUGR condition and a set of generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA) weighted measures associated with abnormal neurobehavior. Interestingly, when assessing the brain network organization independently of network infrastructure by means of normalized networks, IUGR showed increased global and local efficiencies. We hypothesize that this effect could reflect a compensatory response to reduced infrastructure in IUGR. These results present new evidence on the long-term persistence of the brain reorganization produced by IUGR that could underlie behavioral and developmental alterations previously described. The described changes in network organization have the potential to be used

  12. Numerical simulation for excavation and long-term behavior of large-scale cavern in soft rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawada, Masataka; Okada, Tetsuji

    2010-01-01

    Low-level radioactive waste is planned to be disposed at the depth of more than 50 m in Neogene tuff or tuffaceous sandstone. Generally there are few cracks in sedimentary soft rocks, thus it is considered to be easier to determine permeability of soft rocks than that of discontinuous rocks. On the other hand, sedimentary soft rocks show strong time-dependent behavior, and they are more sensitive to heat, groundwater, and their chemical effect. Numerical method for long-term behavior of underground facilities is necessary to their design and safety assessment. Numerical simulations for excavation of test cavern in disposal site are described in this report. Our creep model was applied to these simulations. Although it is able to reproduce the behavior of soft rock observed in laboratory creep test, simulation using parameters obtained from laboratory tests predicts much larger displacement than that of measurement. Simulation using parameters modified based on in-situ elastic wave measurement and back analysis reproduces measured displacements very well. Behavior of the surrounding rock mass during resaturation after setting of the waste and the engineered barrier system is also simulated. We have a plan to investigate chemical and mechanical interaction among soft rock, tunnel supports and engineered barriers, and to make their numerical models. (author)

  13. Mathematical models of human paralyzed muscle after long-term training

    OpenAIRE

    Frey Law, L.A.; Shields, R.K.

    2007-01-01

    Spinal cord injury (SCI) results in major musculoskeletal adaptations, including muscle atrophy, faster contractile properties, increased fatigability, and bone loss. The use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) provides a method to prevent paralyzed muscle adaptations in order to sustain force-generating capacity. Mathematical muscle models may be able to predict optimal activation strategies during FES, however muscle properties further adapt with long-term training. The purpose of th...

  14. Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

  15. Long-term fashion forecast based on the sociological model of cyclic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А V Lebsak-Kleimans

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The concepts of social changes coined by classical sociology may be incorporated as the basis for the elaboration of social prognostication models which, in turn, may suitable for fashion forecast applied technologies development. In the framework of the given paper fashion is described as the phenomenon of collective behaviour. The principles of long-term fashion trends forecast are shown to be in line with the concepts of cyclic development.

  16. Results from the long-term interaction and modeling of SRL-131 glass with aqueous solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, D.M.; Pederson, L.R.; Lokken, R.O.

    1985-11-01

    Leaching studies of SRL-131 simulated defense nuclear waste glass have been carried out to two years duration, in leachants that simulate groundwaters of different ionic strengths. The leachability of SRL-131 glass followed the trend: deionized water > silicate water > salt brine = simulated groundwater at 40 0 C and deionized water = simulated groundwater > silicate water > salt brine at 90 0 C. The results are in general agreement with calculations using the PHREEQE geochemical code and indicate a sometimes complex sequence temperature dependent of mineral precipitation and redissolution. The calculations done in this study have illustrated the complexity of the precipitation sequence of mineral phases as a function of reaction progress. Complex, temperature dependent, precipitation/dissolution sequences have also been observed in experiments using natural materials, such as sea water and basaltic glass. The results of this two-year study point to the need for further work in establishing the thermodynamics of the observed phases and the relationship of these phases to the thermodynamically favored suite of phases for any given waste form/host rock/groundwater system. In order to study these phases, very long-term experiments may be necessary so that the phases grow to sizes which can be studied. In addition, geochemical codes should be used to better understand the experiments, to design leach test matrices, and to help predict the long-term results of experiments. The combination of long-term experiments and geochemical codes should lead to an improved method for forecasting the long-term behavior of a nuclear waste repository. 15 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs

  17. Hydrothermal behaviors and long-term stability of bentonitic buffer material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jae Owan; Cho, Won Jin

    2007-01-01

    In hydrothermal reaction tests, smectite-to-illite conversion was identified using a domestic bentonite which is favorably considered as a buffer material, and its dependency on various hydrothermal conditions was investigated. The analysis results of the XRD and Si concentration indicated that the smectite-to- illite conversion was a major process of bentonite alteration under the hydrothermal conditions. The temperature, potassium concentration in solution, and pH were observed to significantly affect the smectite-to illite conversion. A model of conversion reaction rate was suggested evaluate the long-term stability of smectite composing a major constituent of bentonitic buffer. It was expected from the evaluation results that the smectite would keep its integrity for very long disposal time under a normal condition, while as it might be converted to illite by 50 percent after over 5 x 10 4 year of disposal time under a conservative condition and consequently lose its swelling capacity as a buffer material of a repository

  18. Long-term behavior of refractory thorium-plutonium dioxide solid solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Claparede, Laurent, E-mail: laurent.claparede@umontpellier.fr [ICSM, UMR 5257 CNRS/CEA/Univ. Montpellier/ENSCM, Site de Marcoule, Bât. 426, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols/Cèze (France); Guigue, Mireille [CEA, Nuclear Energy Division, RadioChemistry & Processes Department, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols/Cèze (France); Jouan, Gauthier [CEA, Nuclear Energy Division, DTEC Department, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols/Cèze (France); Nadah, Nassima [CEA, Nuclear Energy Division, RadioChemistry & Processes Department, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols/Cèze (France); Dacheux, Nicolas [ICSM, UMR 5257 CNRS/CEA/Univ. Montpellier/ENSCM, Site de Marcoule, Bât. 426, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols/Cèze (France); Moisy, Philippe [CEA, Nuclear Energy Division, RadioChemistry & Processes Department, BP 17171, 30207 Bagnols/Cèze (France)

    2017-01-15

    The long-term behavior of Th{sub 0.87}Pu{sub 0.13}O{sub 2} was examined in nitric acid concentrations. The normalized dissolution rates after 3380 days, range from (1.4 ± 0.2) × 10{sup −6} g m{sup −2} d{sup −1} in 5 M HNO{sub 3} down to (3.2 ± 0.4) × 10{sup −8} g m{sup −2} d{sup −1} in 10{sup −3} M HNO{sub 3}, which confirms the high chemical durability of this solid solution. The amounts of plutonium measured in solution lead to 0.9% and 2.1% of dissolved solid in 1 M and 5 M HNO{sub 3}, respectively. In such conditions, the time required to reach the full dissolution of the material varies from 430 years (5 M HNO{sub 3}) to 18,000 years (10{sup −3} M HNO{sub 3}). Moreover, the partial order related to the proton activity (n = 0.45 ± 0.03) suggests that the dissolution is mainly driven by surface reactions occurring at the solid/liquid interface. The characterization of the leached samples by SEM shows small microstructural modifications (i.e. detachment of crystallites) and the absence of neoformed phase while from PXRD, the unit cell parameter and crystallite size are not significantly affected. - Highlights: • Leaching tests of Th{sub 0.87}Pu{sub 0.13}O{sub 2} were performed for 9 years in several nitric acid solutions. • The high chemical durability of thorium-plutonium oxide solid solutions was confirmed. • The solubility of plutonium(IV) was not controlled by the precipitation of plutonium tetrahydroxide in these experiments.

  19. Long-term modeling on HPV vaccination: do we really need any more?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garattini, Livio; Curto, Alessandro; van de Vooren, Katelijne

    2015-04-01

    The human papillomavirus (HPV) is closely related to cervical cancer. In 2007, the EMA approved two vaccines, a bivalent and a quadrivalent one, launched at three-dose schedules and very high prices worldwide. We describe what happened in the EU and what might change in the near future from an economic perspective. HPV vaccination is now established in most EU countries. The main target group of the programs is girls aged 10-14 years. Many western countries used competitive tendering to purchase the two vaccines, achieving considerable savings. The extension to males has been a hotly debated issue. The sex limitation implies that this vaccination cannot by definition achieve a 'herd immunity' effect. EMA recently approved a two-dose schedule for both vaccines that should lead to savings, although it is hard to predict how the forthcoming nonavalent vaccine will affect the market situation. Several economic evaluations based on long-term models have been published on the HPV vaccination in the recent years, using official list prices as a baseline. Most of these models can be considered mere exercises in long-term forecasting. Recently, further long-term models have been published with two- and three-dose schedules as alternatives, and the nonavalent vaccine. We wonder what added value they give for public policy purposes.

  20. Long term corrosion behavior of the WAK-HLW glass in salt solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luckscheiter, B.; Nesovic, M.

    1998-01-01

    The corrosion behavior of the HLW glass GP WAK1 containing simulated HLW oxides from the WAK reprocessing plant in Karlsruhe is investigated in long-term corrosion experiments at high S/V ratios in two reference brines at 110 and 190 C. In case of the MgCl 2 -rich solution the leachate becomes increasingly acid with reaction time up to a final pH of about 3.5 at 190 C. In the NaCl-rich solution the pH rises to about 8.5 after one year of reaction. The release of soluble elements in MgCl 2 solution, under Si-saturated conditions, is proportional to the surface area of the sample and the release increases at 190 C according to a t 1/2 rate law. This time dependence may be an indication of diffusion controlled matrix dissolution. However, at 110 C the release of the mobile elements cannot be described by a t 1/2 rate law as the time exponents are much lower than 0.5. This difference in corrosion behavior may be explained by the higher pH of about 5 at 110 C. In case of NaCl solution under alkaline conditions, the release of soluble elements is not proportional to the surface area of the sample and it increases with time exponents much lower than 0.5. After one year of reaction at 190 C a sharp increase of the release values of some elements was observed. This increase might be explained by the high pH of the solution attained after one year. The corrosion mechanism in NaCl solution, as well as in MgCl 2 solution at 110 C, has not yet been explained. By corrosion experiments in water at constant pH values between 2 and 10, it could be shown that the time exponents of the release of Li and B decrease with increasing pH of the solution. This result can explain qualitatively the differences found in the corrosion behavior of the glass under the various conditions

  1. Development of analysis model for mid and long-term effects of sodium water reaction event in LMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eoh, Jae Hyuk; Sim, Yoon Sub; Kim, Seong O; Kim, Yeon Sik; Kim, Eui Kwang; Wi, Myung Hwan

    2002-04-01

    The Sodium-Water Reaction(SWR) is important in the design consideration of a LMR steam generator. To develop the analysis code for long-term effects of SWR, investigation on the characteristics of various SWR analysis code and the assessment of an analysis model for long term effects were performed. In an event of SWR, pressure spikes of wave propagation occur at its initial stage and last for a very short time, and then bulk motion of fluid and reaction products is progressed and lasts for a long time. In a case SWR occurs, a number of hydrogen bubbles produced and sodium is entrained into the bubbles through the gas-liquid bubble interfaces by evaporation or diffusion. The partial pressure of the sodium in a hydrogen bubble is determined as a function of the bubble size, temperature, and pressure, and is rapidly decreased as its size increased. From this, it can be considered that the bulk motion in the later phase of SWR is an axial motion caused by expansion of a single-phase hydrogen gas bubble produced by a reaction in the vicinity of the leak site. Through this investigation, a preliminary simple analysis model for long-term effects of SWR was set up and sensitivity study using the system design parameters such as pressure and temperature of IHTS for KALIMER was performed. Also, a simpler analysis model using the cover gas pressure change related to the production of a hydrogen bubble in a steam generator was developed from the analyses results. These simple analysis models of the reaction site and the pressure behavior with hydrogen production can be used to develop the mid and long-term analysis code for SWR in the KALIMER steam generator design

  2. Sustainable Change Sequence: a framework for developing behavior change interventions for patients with long-term conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Elwyn, Glyn; Marrin, Katy; Frosch, Dominick; White, James

    2014-01-01

    Objective\\ud \\ud Interactive interventions are increasingly advocated to support behavior change for patients who have long-term conditions. Such interventions are most likely to achieve behavior change when they are based on appropriate theoretical frameworks. Developers of interventions are faced with a diverse set of behavioral theories that do not specifically address intervention development. The aim of our work was to develop a framework to guide the developers of interactive healthcare...

  3. Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

    2015-01-01

    . The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

  4. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

    2012-04-01

    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  5. On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Wong

    2009-01-01

    martingale component is based on an ergodic diffusion with a specified stationary distribution. These models are particularly useful for long horizon asset-liability management as they allow the modelling of long term stock returns with heavy tail ergodic diffusions, with tractable, time homogeneous dynamics, and which moreover admit a complete financial market, leading to unique pricing and hedging strategies. Unfortunately the standard specifications of these models in literature admit arbitrage opportunities. We investigate in detail the features of the existing model specifications which create these arbitrage opportunities and consequently construct a modification that is arbitrage free.

  6. Expanding the Andersen model: the role of psychosocial factors in long-term care use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Elizabeth H; McGraw, Sarah A; Curry, Leslie; Buckser, Alison; King, Kinda L; Kasl, Stanislav V; Andersen, Ronald

    2002-10-01

    To examine a prevailing conceptual model of health services use (Andersen 1995) and to suggest modifications that may enhance its explanatory power when applied to empirical studies of race/ethnicity and long-term care. Twelve focus groups of African-American (five groups) and white (seven groups) individuals, aged 65 and older, residing in Connecticut during 2000. Using qualitative analysis, data were coded and analyzed in NUD-IST 4 software to facilitate the reporting of recurrent themes, supporting quotations, and links among the themes for developing the conceptual framework. Specific analysis was conducted to assess distinctions in common themes between African-American and white focus groups. Data were collected using a standardized discussion guide, augmented by prompts for clarification. Audio taped sessions were transcribed and independently coded by investigators and crosschecked to enhance coding validity. An audit trail was maintained to document analytic decisions during data analysis and interpretation. Psychosocial factors (e.g., attitudes and knowledge, social norms, and perceived control) are identified as determinants of service use, thereby expanding the Andersen model (1995). African-American and white focus group members differed in their reported accessibility of information about long-term care, social norms concerning caregiving expectations and burden, and concerns of privacy and self-determination. More comprehensive identification of psychosocial factors may enhance our understanding of the complex role of race/ethnicity in long-term care use as well as the effectiveness of policies and programs designed to address disparities in long-term care service use among minority and nonminority groups.

  7. The Sleeper Effect of Intimate Partner Violence Exposure: Long-Term Consequences on Young Children's Aggressive Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Megan R.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Children who have been exposed to intimate partner violence (IPV) experience a wide variety of short-term social adjustment and emotional difficulties, including externalizing behavioral problems such as aggression. While children are affected by IPV at all ages, little is known about the long-term consequences of IPV exposure at…

  8. Long term behavior of radiocaesium in moose: conclusions from 25 years of monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weimer, R.; Sonesten, L.; Goedkoop, W. [Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment (Sweden); Sundell-Bergman, S.; Rosen, K. [Department of Soil and Environment (Sweden); Wikenros, C. [Department of Ecology (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    Radiocesium ({sup 137}Cs) deposited after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986, still persist in forest ecosystems in parts of Sweden at relatively high concentrations. In the forest, radiocaesium is assumed to be reversibly bound to the soil, which facilitates its uptake by plant roots and fungal mycelia thus making it available, as fodder, to wild animals. Even today this leads to contaminated meat from moose (Alces alces) and other game species. Around 100 000 moose, approximately 1/3 of the whole population, are shot each year in Sweden which makes moose the main source of consumed game meat. Hence understanding the long-term behavior of radiocaesium in forest ecosystems is important for the evaluation of future potential health risks to consumers. The two municipalities of Heby and Uppsala, in east-central Sweden, experienced relatively large deposition in 1986 (5 - 100 kBq/m{sup 2}). Monitoring of the {sup 137}Cs activity concentrations in meat from moose hunted in these areas was initiated already in autumn 1986 and is still continuing. Muscle samples from front leg of the slaughtered moose are received from local hunters during the hunting season and more than 3500 samples have been collected during the years. The samples are adjoined with a sampling protocol containing information on estimated age, sex and weight, as well as where and when each moose was shot. Gamma spectrometry of the {sup 137}Cs- activities is performed on fresh or frozen moose muscle samples using HPGe detectors. The main part of all the samples analyzed since 1986 are from the northern part of Heby municipality. This study area covers approximately 400 km{sup 2} and received a mean ground deposition of approximately 35 kBq/m{sup 2} of {sup 137}Cs in 1986. The area is dominated by managed coniferous forests, but also includes large parts of agricultural land. A database of > 3 500 moose samples collected from hunts between 1986 and 2010 was used in this study. The results of the

  9. Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poul Alberg Østergaard

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

  10. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  11. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Mei [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Wang, Dong, E-mail: wangdong@nju.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui [Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian [Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing (China); Singh, Vijay P. [Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States)

    2016-07-15

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall–runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ‘‘wet years and dry years predictability barrier,’’ to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. - Highlights: • The improved phase-space reconstruction model of monthly runoff is established. • Two variables (temperature and rainfall) are incorporated

  12. Short- and Long-Term Feedbacks on Vegetation Water Use: Unifying Evidence from Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, D. S.

    2001-05-01

    Recent efforts to measure and model the interacting influences of climate, soil, and vegetation on soil water and nutrient dynamics have identified numerous important feedbacks that produce nonlinear responses. In particular, plant physiological factors that control rates of transpiration respond to soil water deficits and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in the short-term, and to climate, nutrient cycling and disturbance in the long-term. The starting point of this presentation is the observation that in many systems, in particular forest ecosystems, conservative water use emerges as a result of short-term closure of stomata in response to high evaporative demand, and long-term vegetative canopy development under nutrient limiting conditions. Evidence for important short-term controls is presented from sap flux measurements of stand transpiration, remote sensing, and modeling of transpiration through a combination of physically-based modeling and Monte Carlo analysis. A common result is a strong association between stomatal conductance (gs) and the negative evaporative gain (∂ gs/∂ VPD) associated with the sensitivity of stomatal closure to rates of water loss. The importance of this association from the standpoint of modeling transpiration depends on the degree of canopy-atmosphere coupling. This suggests possible simplifications to future canopy component models for use in watershed and larger-scale hydrologic models for short-term processes. However, further results are presented from theoretical modeling, which suggest that feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation in current long-term (inter-annual to century) models may be too simple, as they do not capture the spatially variable nature of slow nutrient cycling in response to soil water dynamics and site history. Memory effects in the soil nutrient pools can leave lasting effects on more rapid processes associated with soil, vegetation, atmosphere coupling.

  13. A New Approach to the Long-Term Activity Behavior of DM UMa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taş G.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A long-term activity character of DM UMa (K0-1 IV-III, which is one of the most active members of the RS CVn type variables, is examined using the multicolor photometric observations which spread to the time interval between 1980 and 2009. In this work, we present a new approximation for the long-term light and color variation of DM UMa using data obtained by combining our own observations obtained in the Johnson broad-band U,B,V,R filters between the years 1997 and 2008 and data published in literature. Available light and color data were examined for the long-term and seasonal variations using PERIOD04 program. The period analysis of the V-band data reveals the period estimations of 51.2±2.8 years and 15.1±0.7 years superposed on it. The U-B, B-V and V-R colors do not show correlation with the longer period, but they show variations with a period similar to the shorter one, except for B-V color. The amplitude variation also does not exhibit any correlation with the V light and color curves. It is found that the movement of the spot minima phases in years also indicates the migration period of nearly 15 years, similar to the period derived from the analysis of the long-term photometric observations in V-band.

  14. Reinstatement of long-term memory following erasure of its behavioral and synaptic expression in Aplysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shanping; Cai, Diancai; Pearce, Kaycey; Sun, Philip Y-W; Roberts, Adam C; Glanzman, David L

    2014-11-17

    Long-term memory (LTM) is believed to be stored in the brain as changes in synaptic connections. Here, we show that LTM storage and synaptic change can be dissociated. Cocultures of Aplysia sensory and motor neurons were trained with spaced pulses of serotonin, which induces long-term facilitation. Serotonin (5HT) triggered growth of new presynaptic varicosities, a synaptic mechanism of long-term sensitization. Following 5HT training, two antimnemonic treatments-reconsolidation blockade and inhibition of PKM--caused the number of presynaptic varicosities to revert to the original, pretraining value. Surprisingly, the final synaptic structure was not achieved by targeted retraction of the 5HT-induced varicosities but, rather, by an apparently arbitrary retraction of both 5HT-induced and original synapses. In addition, we find evidence that the LTM for sensitization persists covertly after its apparent elimination by the same antimnemonic treatments that erase learning-related synaptic growth. These results challenge the idea that stable synapses store long-term memories.

  15. Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Murru

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

  16. Comparison of three nonlinear models to describe long-term tag shedding by lake trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Swanson, Bruce L.; Schram, Stephen T.; Hoff, Michael H.

    1996-01-01

    We estimated long-term tag-shedding rates for lake trout Salvelinus namaycush using two existing models and a model we developed to account for the observed permanence of some tags. Because tag design changed over the course of the study, we examined tag-shedding rates for three types of numbered anchor tags (Floy tags FD-67, FD-67C, and FD-68BC) and an unprinted anchor tag (FD-67F). Lake trout from the Gull Island Shoal region, Lake Superior, were double-tagged, and subsequent recaptures were monitored in annual surveys conducted from 1974 to 1992. We modeled tag-shedding rates, using time at liberty and probabilities of tag shedding estimated from fish released in 1974 and 1978–1983 and later recaptured. Long-term shedding of numbered anchor tags in lake trout was best described by a nonlinear model with two parameters: an instantaneous tag-shedding rate and a constant representing the proportion of tags that were never shed. Although our estimates of annual shedding rates varied with tag type (0.300 for FD-67, 0.441 for FD-67C, and 0.656 for FD-68BC), differences were not significant. About 36% of tags remained permanently affixed to the fish. Of the numbered tags that were shed (about 64%), two mechanisms contributed to tag loss: disintegration and dislodgment. Tags from about 11% of recaptured fish had disintegrated, but most tags were dislodged. Unprinted tags were shed at a significant but low rate immediately after release, but the long-term, annual shedding rate of these tags was only 0.013. Compared with unprinted tags, numbered tags dislodged at higher annual rates; we hypothesized that this was due to the greater frictional drag associated with the larger cross-sectional area of numbered tags.

  17. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crassous, R.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks

  18. A Long-Term Prediction Model of Beijing Haze Episodes Using Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoping Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid industrial development has led to the intermittent outbreak of pm2.5 or haze in developing countries, which has brought about great environmental issues, especially in big cities such as Beijing and New Delhi. We investigated the factors and mechanisms of haze change and present a long-term prediction model of Beijing haze episodes using time series analysis. We construct a dynamic structural measurement model of daily haze increment and reduce the model to a vector autoregressive model. Typical case studies on 886 continuous days indicate that our model performs very well on next day’s Air Quality Index (AQI prediction, and in severely polluted cases (AQI ≥ 300 the accuracy rate of AQI prediction even reaches up to 87.8%. The experiment of one-week prediction shows that our model has excellent sensitivity when a sudden haze burst or dissipation happens, which results in good long-term stability on the accuracy of the next 3–7 days’ AQI prediction.

  19. Spectral model for long-term computation of thermodynamics and potential evaporation in shallow wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Alberto; Meruane, Carolina

    2017-09-01

    Altiplanic wetlands are unique ecosystems located in the elevated plateaus of Chile, Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia. These ecosystems are under threat due to changes in land use, groundwater extractions, and climate change that will modify the water balance through changes in precipitation and evaporation rates. Long-term prediction of the fate of aquatic ecosystems imposes computational constraints that make finding a solution impossible in some cases. In this article, we present a spectral model for long-term simulations of the thermodynamics of shallow wetlands in the limit case when the water depth tends to zero. This spectral model solves for water and sediment temperature, as well as heat, momentum, and mass exchanged with the atmosphere. The parameters of the model (water depth, thermal properties of the sediments, and surface albedo) and the atmospheric downscaling were calibrated using the MODIS product of the land surface temperature. Moreover, the performance of the daily evaporation rates predicted by the model was evaluated against daily pan evaporation data measured between 1964 and 2012. The spectral model was able to correctly represent both seasonal fluctuation and climatic trends observed in daily evaporation rates. It is concluded that the spectral model presented in this article is a suitable tool for assessing the global climate change effects on shallow wetlands whose thermodynamics is forced by heat exchanges with the atmosphere and modulated by the heat-reservoir role of the sediments.

  20. In-Plant Fission Product Behavior in SGTR Accident with Long-Term SBO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Han, Seok Jung; Ahn, Kwang Il [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The off-site AC power was recovered in 9 days after the accident in the NPS. Therefore safety injection by fire pump truck with fresh water or seawater is only available in the Fukushima accident. However, safety injection by fire pump truck is not always effective due to the high pressure of RPV inside or leakages of alternative water injection flow paths. In the SBO situations in pressurized water reactor plant (PWR), turbine driven auxiliary feedwater (TD-AFW) pump can inject water to the secondary side of steam generator. However, turbine inlet steam flow control valve cannot work properly when loss of vital DC power occurs. Vital DC power is designed to be maintained during 4 or 8 hours in the SBO conditions. In this paper motor-driven and turbine driven AFW pumps are all assumed to be not working at time 0 sec as a worst case assumption. Iodine pool-scrubbing can occur in the secondary side of the faulted steam generator. However, iodine pool-scrubbing in the secondary side of the faulted steam generator is assumed not to be working, due to the assumption of the loss of DC battery for turbine inlet flow control valve. Iodine pool-scrubbing is one of the long-term research issues in safety assessment of nuclear power plant severe accident. PHEBUS FPT series and THAI experiment projects are typical projects on the resolving source term issues in severe accident of nuclear power plants. However, iodine retention by pool scrubbing is still a debating issue. In such containment bypass sequences, fission products can be released out to environment directly from RCS without retention or deposition in containment structures. SGTR is one of the hazardous accident scenarios in the typical PSA, because SGTR induces a large release amount of source term to environment directly. A key operation strategy was the isolation of the broken reactor coolant system loop from the intact loop. Typical core degradation in SGTR scenarios occurs with multiple failures of the isolation

  1. Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

    2015-03-01

    China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

  2. Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallis, I.G.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

  3. The long-term in vivo behavior of polymethyl methacrylate bone cement in total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oonishi, Hiroyuki; Akiyama, Haruhiko; Takemoto, Mitsuru; Kawai, Toshiyuki; Yamamoto, Koji; Yamamuro, Takao; Oonishi, Hironobu; Nakamura, Takashi

    2011-10-01

    The long-term success of cemented total hip arthroplasty (THA) has been well established. Improved outcomes, both radiographically and clinically, have resulted mainly from advances in stem design and improvements in operating techniques. However, there is concern about the durability of bone cement in vivo. We evaluated the physical and chemical properties of CMW1 bone cements retrieved from patients undergoing revision THA. CMW1 cements were retrieved from 14 patients who underwent acetabular revision because of aseptic loosening. The time in vivo before revision was 7-30 years. The bending properties of the retrieved bone cement were assessed using the three-point bending method. The molecular weight and chemical structure were analyzed by gel permeation chromatography and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. The porosity of the bone cements was evaluated by 3-D microcomputer tomography. The bending strength decreased with increasing time in vivo and depended on the density of the bone cement, which we assume to be determined by the porosity. There was no correlation between molecular weight and time in vivo. The infrared spectra were similar in the retrieved cements and in the control CMW1 cements. Our results indicate that polymer chain scission and significant hydrolysis do not occur in CMW1 cement after implantation in vivo, even in the long term. CMW1 cement was stable through long-term implantation and functional loading.

  4. Long term subsidence movements and behavior of subsidence-damaged structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahar, J.W.; Marino, G.G.

    1999-01-01

    Surface ground movement related to sag mine subsidence has been monitored above Illinois abandoned room and pillar coal workings for periods of more than 15 years. The long term movement related to a specific mine subsidence is typically small relative to the initial displacements but have caused crack and tilt damage in both repaired and unrepaired structures. Seasonal variations in ground surface elevations are superimposed on the downward movement related to mine subsidence. Thus it is necessary to measure long term subsidence movement at about the same time each year in order to minimize environmental factors. This paper presents long term monitoring data from five subsidence sags in central and southern Illinois. The abandoned coal mine workings are located at depths of 160 to 460 ft below the ground surface. measured residual mine subsidence ranges between 1.4 and 3.6 in. 4.4 to 15 years after mine failure. The magnitude of downward displacement is greater than settlement design values (1 in.) and are at rates (0.0004 to 0.0056 ft/month) that cause damage to structures. Most of the damage in unrepaired structures occurs along existing cracks and separations. In all five cases, the ground movements are continuing at residual rates. Sag subsidence movement in Illinois takes place for a minimum of five years after the damage is manifested at the ground surface. A classification of say development is provided based on the displacement-time data

  5. Long-term creep modeling of wood using time temperature superposition principle

    OpenAIRE

    Gamalath, Sandhya Samarasinghe

    1991-01-01

    Long-term creep and recovery models (master curves) were developed from short-term data using the time temperature superposition principle (TTSP) for kiln-dried southern pine loaded in compression parallel-to-grain and exposed to constant environmental conditions (~70°F, ~9%EMC). Short-term accelerated creep (17 hour) and recovery (35 hour) data were collected for each specimen at a range of temperature (70°F-150°F) and constant moisture condition of 9%. The compressive stra...

  6. Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Yucca Mountain Tuff and its Variability, Final Technical Report for Task ORD-FY04-021

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daemen, Jaak J.K.; Ma, Lumin; Zhao, Guohua

    2006-01-01

    The study of the long term mechanical behavior of Yucca Mountain tuffs is important for several reasons. Long term stability of excavations will affect accessibility (e.g. for inspection purposes), and retrievability. Long term instabilities may induce loading of drip shields and/or emplaced waste, thus affecting drip shield and/or waste package corrosion. Failure of excavations will affect airflow, may affect water flow, and may affect temperature distributions. The long term mechanical behavior of rocks remains an elusive topic, loaded with uncertainties. A variety of approaches have been used to improve the understanding of this complex subject, but it is doubtful that it has reached a stage where firm predictions can be considered feasible. The long term mechanical behavior of ''soft'' rocks, especially evaporites, and in particular rock salt, has been the subject of numerous investigations (e.g. Cristescu and Hunsche, 1998, Cristescu et al, 2002), and basic approaches towards engineering taking into account the long term behavior of such materials have long been well established (e.g. Dreyer, 1972, 1982). The same is certainly not true of ''hard'' rocks. While it long has been recognized that the long term strength of ''hard'' rocks almost certainly is significantly less than that measured during ''short'', i.e. standard (ASTM D 2938), ISRM suggested (Bieniawski et al, 1978) and conventionally used test procedures (e.g. Bieniawski, 1970, Wawersik, 1972, Hoek and Brown, 1980, p. 150), what limited approaches have been taken to develop strategies toward determining the long term mechanical behavior of ''hard'' rock remain in the early research and investigation stage, at best. One early model developed specifically for time dependent analysis of underground ''hard'' rock structures is the phenomenological model by Kaiser and Morgenstern (1981). Brady and Brown (1985, p. 93) state that over a wide range of strain rates, from 10 -8 to 10 2 /s the difference in

  7. Sevoflurane exposure during the neonatal period induces long-term memory impairment but not autism-like behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Woosuk; Park, Saegeun; Hong, Jiso; Park, Sangil; Lee, Soomin; Heo, Junyoung; Kim, Daesoo; Ko, Youngkwon

    2015-10-01

    To examine whether neonatal exposure to sevoflurane induces autism-like behaviors in mice. There are continuing reports regarding the potential negative effects of anesthesia on the developing brain. Recently, several studies suggest that neurotoxicity caused by anesthesia may lead to neurodevelopmental impairments. However, unlike reports focusing on learning and memory, there are only a few animal studies focusing on neurodevelopmental disorders after general anesthesia. Therefore, we have focused on autism, a representative neurodevelopmental disorder. Neonatal mice (P6-7) were exposed to a titrated dose of sevoflurane for 6 h. Apoptosis was evaluated by assessing the expression level of cleaved (activated) caspase-3. Autism-like behaviors, general activity, anxiety level, and long-term memory were evaluated with multiple behavioral assays. Western blotting confirmed that neonatal exposure to sevoflurane increased the expression level of activated caspase-3, indicative of apoptosis. Mice exposed to sevoflurane also showed impaired long-term memory in fear tests. However, sevoflurane-exposed mice did not exhibit autism-like features in all of the following assays: social interaction (three-chamber test, caged social interaction), social communication (ultrasonic vocalization test), or repetitive behavior (self-grooming test, digging). There were also no differences in general activity (open field test, home cage activity) and anxiety (open field test, light-dark box) after sevoflurane exposure. Our results confirm previous studies that neonatal sevoflurane exposure causes neurodegeneration and long-term memory impairment in mice. However, sevoflurane did not induce autism-like features. Our study suggests that mice are more vulnerable to long-term memory deficits than autism-like behaviors after exposure to sevoflurane. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Neural Rhythms of Change: Long-Term Improvement after Successful Treatment in Children with Disruptive Behavior Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Woltering

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Neural changes were investigated for children with disruptive behavior problems one year after a treatment program ended. Thirty-nine children and their parents visited the research lab before, after, and a year after treatment ended. During those lab visits, electroencephalography (EEG was recorded during a challenging Go/No-go task. Treatment consisted of intensive 14-week combined cognitive behavioral therapy and parent management training sessions. For the analysis, participants were divided into long-term improvers (IMPs and long-term nonimprovers (NIMPs based on changes in their externalizing problem scores. The results showed early no-go theta power (4–8 Hz, 100–250 ms decreased for long-term IMPs compared to NIMPs. When participants were divided based on changes in their comorbid internalizing symptoms, effects were stronger and reductions in theta power were found for early as well as later phases (250–650 ms. We provided preliminary evidence that theta power is a useful neural measure to trace behavioral change linked to improved self-regulation even up to a year after treatment ended. Results may have implications for the characterization of children with disruptive behavior problems and may lead to the development of novel markers of treatment success.

  9. Tritium: a model for low level long-term ionizing radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carsten, A.L.

    1984-01-01

    The somatic, cytogenetic and genetic effects of single and chronic tritiated water (HTO) ingestion in mice was investigated. This study serves not only as an evaluation of tritium toxicity (TRITOX) but due to its design involving long-term low concentration ingestion of HTO may serve as a model for low level long-term ionizing radiation exposure in general. Long-term studies involved animals maintained on HTO at concentrations of 0.3 μCi/ml, 1.0 μCi/ml, 3.0 μCi/ml or depth dose equivalent chronic external exposures to 137 Cs gamma rays. Maintenance on 3.0 μCi/ml resulted in no effect on growth, life-time shortening or bone marrow cellularity, but did result in a reduction of bone marrow stem cells, an increase in DLM's in second generation animals maintained on this regimen and cytogenetic effects as indicated by increased sister chromatid exchanges (SCE's) in bone marrow cells, increased chromosome aberrations in the regenerating liver and an increase in micronuclei in red blood cells. Biochemical and microdosimetry studies showed that animals placed on the HTO regimen reached tritium equilibrium in the body water in approximately 17 to 21 days with a more gradual increase in bound tritium. When animals maintained for 180 days on 3.0 μCi/ml HTO were placed on a tap water regimen, the tritium level in tissue dropped from the equilibrium value of 2.02 μCi/ml before withdrawal to 0.001 μCi/ml at 28 days. 18 references

  10. Mathematical models of human paralyzed muscle after long-term training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, L A Frey; Shields, R K

    2007-01-01

    Spinal cord injury (SCI) results in major musculoskeletal adaptations, including muscle atrophy, faster contractile properties, increased fatigability, and bone loss. The use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) provides a method to prevent paralyzed muscle adaptations in order to sustain force-generating capacity. Mathematical muscle models may be able to predict optimal activation strategies during FES, however muscle properties further adapt with long-term training. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of three muscle models, one linear and two nonlinear, for predicting paralyzed soleus muscle force after exposure to long-term FES training. Further, we contrasted the findings between the trained and untrained limbs. The three models' parameters were best fit to a single force train in the trained soleus muscle (N=4). Nine additional force trains (test trains) were predicted for each subject using the developed models. Model errors between predicted and experimental force trains were determined, including specific muscle force properties. The mean overall error was greatest for the linear model (15.8%) and least for the nonlinear Hill Huxley type model (7.8%). No significant error differences were observed between the trained versus untrained limbs, although model parameter values were significantly altered with training. This study confirmed that nonlinear models most accurately predict both trained and untrained paralyzed muscle force properties. Moreover, the optimized model parameter values were responsive to the relative physiological state of the paralyzed muscle (trained versus untrained). These findings are relevant for the design and control of neuro-prosthetic devices for those with SCI.

  11. A Reaction-Diffusion Model for Synapse Growth and Long-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kang; Lisman, John; Hagan, Michael

    Memory storage involves strengthening of synaptic transmission known as long-term potentiation (LTP). The late phase of LTP is associated with structural processes that enlarge the synapse. Yet, synapses must be stable, despite continual subunit turnover, over the lifetime of an encoded memory. These considerations suggest that synapses are variable-size stable structure (VSSS), meaning they can switch between multiple metastable structures with different sizes. The mechanisms underlying VSSS are poorly understood. While experiments and theory have suggested that the interplay between diffusion and receptor-scaffold interactions can lead to a preferred stable size for synaptic domains, such a mechanism cannot explain how synapses adopt widely different sizes. Here we develop a minimal reaction-diffusion model of VSSS for synapse growth, incorporating the recent observation from super-resolution microscopy that neural activity can build compositional heterogeneities within synaptic domains. We find that introducing such heterogeneities can change the stable domain size in a controlled manner. We discuss a potential connection between this model and experimental data on synapse sizes, and how it provides a possible mechanism to structurally encode graded long-term memory. We acknowledge the support from NSF INSPIRE Award number IOS-1526941 (KL, MFH, JL) and the Brandeis Center for Bioinspired Soft Materials, an NSF MRSEC, DMR- 1420382 (MFH).

  12. Maintaining Sexual Desire in Long-Term Relationships: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Kristen P; Lasslo, Julie A

    The most universally experienced sexual response is sexual desire. Though research on this topic has increased in recent years, low and high desire are still problematized in clinical settings and the broader culture. However, despite knowledge that sexual desire ebbs and flows both within and between individuals, and that problems with sexual desire are strongly linked to problems with relationships, there is a critical gap in understanding the factors that contribute to maintaining sexual desire in the context of relationships. This article offers a systematic review of the literature to provide researchers, educators, clinicians, and the broader public with an overview and a conceptual model of nonclinical sexual desire in long-term relationships. First, we systematically identified peer-reviewed, English-language articles that focused on the maintenance of sexual desire in the context of nonclinical romantic relationships. Second, we reviewed a total of 64 articles that met inclusion criteria and synthesized them into factors using a socioecological framework categorized as individual, interpersonal, and societal in nature. These findings are used to build a conceptual model of maintaining sexual desire in long-term relationships. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the existing research and suggest clear directions for future research.

  13. Long-Term Changes in Pain Sensitivity in an Animal Model of Social Anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Berry

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Animal models with an eco-ethological relevance can help in identifying novel and reliable stress-related markers. To this end, 3-month-old C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to social defeat (SD stress for 10 days as this stressor shows good face and predictive validity for several models of human affective disorders including depression, social phobia and post-traumatic stress disorder. Social avoidance and pain threshold were assessed 24 h and 4 weeks after the end of SD stress, while corticosterone was assayed at the beginning and at the end of the stressful procedure (days 1 and 10. SD subjects were characterized by increased corticosterone levels (30 min following stress exposure, increased latency to approach the social target in the short-term as well as increased emotionality in the long-term. Moreover, an increase in nociceptive threshold (stress-induced analgesia was found both in the short-term and 4 weeks after the end of stress. These data indicate that the SD paradigm is able to induce emotional changes associated with a stressful/traumatic event. In addition, they indicate that variations in the nociceptive threshold might represent a physiological marker of both short- and long-term effects of stress.

  14. Microstructure-sensitive Crystal Viscoplasticity for Ni-base Superalloys Targeting Long-term Creep-Fatigue Interaction Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neu, Richard W.

    2017-09-30

    The aim of this project is to develop a microstructure-sensitive crystal viscoplasticity (CVP) model for single-crystal Ni-base superalloys to model the behavior of the material and components in the hot gas path sections of industrial gas turbines (IGT). Microstructure degradation associated with aging critical to predicting long-term creep-fatigue interactions will be embedded into the model through the γ' precipitate morphology evolution by coupling the coarsening drivers and kinetics into the constitutive equations of the CVP model. Model parameters will be determined using new experimental protocols that involve systematically artificially aging the alloy under different stress conditions to determine the relationship between the size and morphology g' precipitates on the creep and thermomechanical fatigue response.

  15. Microstructure-sensitive Crystal Viscoelasticity for Ni-base Superalloys Targeting Long-term Creep-Fatigue Interaction Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neu, Richard W

    2016-09-30

    The aim of this project is to develop a microstructure-sensitive crystal viscoplasticity (CVP) model for single-crystal Ni-base superalloys to model the behavior of the material and components in the hot gas path sections of industrial gas turbines (IGT). Microstructure degradation associated with aging critical to predicting long-term creep-fatigue interactions will be embedded into the model through the γ' precipitate morphology evolution by coupling the coarsening drivers and kinetics into the constitutive equations of the CVP model. Model parameters will be determined using new experimental protocols that involve systematically artificially aging the alloy under different stress conditions to determine the relationship between the size and morphology g' precipitates on the creep and thermomechanical fatigue response.

  16. A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates.

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell, John Y; Shiller, Robert J

    1984-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by a distributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate "overreacts" to the short rate. This paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia, or deviations from the expectations theory. This enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated. It is show...

  17. The Long-Term Impact of High School Civics Curricula on Political Knowledge, Democratic Attitudes and Civic Behaviors: A Multi-Level Model of Direct and Mediated Effects through Communication. CIRCLE Working Paper #65

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchens, Myiah J.; Eveland, William P., Jr.

    2009-01-01

    This report examines the effects of exposure to various elements of a civics curriculum on civic participation, two forms of political knowledge, internal political efficacy, political cynicism, news elaboration, discussion elaboration and various forms of interpersonal and mediated political communication behaviors. The data are based on a…

  18. Modeling Long Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila Alejandra Puntel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L. can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L. yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1 applied to corn. Our objectives were to: a quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; b compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and c utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simultaneously simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration, which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration. For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-yr mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40 to 50 kg N ha-1. However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching with precipitation. We concluded that long term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add

  19. Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

    2016-01-01

    Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn ( Zea mays L. ) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean ( Glycine max L. ) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha -1 ) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha -1 ). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward

  20. Traumatic brain injury causes long-term behavioral changes related to region-specific increases of cerebral blood flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöttker, Bruno; Stöber, Franziska; Hummel, Regina; Angenstein, Frank; Radyushkin, Konstantin; Goldschmidt, Jürgen; Schäfer, Michael K E

    2017-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of disability and death and survivors often suffer from long-lasting motor impairment, cognitive deficits, anxiety disorders and epilepsy. Few experimental studies have investigated long-term sequelae after TBI and relations between behavioral changes and neural activity patterns remain elusive. We examined these issues in a murine model of TBI combining histology, behavioral analyses and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging of regional cerebral blood flow (CBF) as a proxy for neural activity. Adult C57Bl/6N mice were subjected to unilateral cortical impact injury and investigated at early (15-57 days after lesion, dal) and late (184-225 dal) post-traumatic time points. TBI caused pronounced tissue loss of the parietal cortex and subcortical structures and enduring neurological deficits. Marked perilesional astro- and microgliosis was found at 57 dal and declined at 225 dal. Motor and gait pattern deficits occurred at early time points after TBI and improved over the time. In contrast, impaired performance in the Morris water maze test and decreased anxiety-like behavior persisted together with an increased susceptibility to pentylenetetrazole-induced seizures suggesting alterations in neural activity patterns. Accordingly, SPECT imaging of CBF indicated asymmetric hemispheric baseline neural activity patterns. In the ipsilateral hemisphere, increased baseline neural activity was found in the amygdala. In the contralateral hemisphere, homotopic to the structural brain damage, the hippocampus and distinct cortex regions displayed increased baseline neural activity. Thus, regionally elevated CBF along with behavioral alterations indicate that increased neural activity is critically involved in the long-lasting consequences of TBI.

  1. Modeling long-term human activeness using recurrent neural networks for biometric data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Zae Myung; Oh, Hyungrai; Kim, Han-Gyu; Lim, Chae-Gyun; Oh, Kyo-Joong; Choi, Ho-Jin

    2017-05-18

    With the invention of fitness trackers, it has been possible to continuously monitor a user's biometric data such as heart rates, number of footsteps taken, and amount of calories burned. This paper names the time series of these three types of biometric data, the user's "activeness", and investigates the feasibility in modeling and predicting the long-term activeness of the user. The dataset used in this study consisted of several months of biometric time-series data gathered by seven users independently. Four recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures-as well as a deep neural network and a simple regression model-were proposed to investigate the performance on predicting the activeness of the user under various length-related hyper-parameter settings. In addition, the learned model was tested to predict the time period when the user's activeness falls below a certain threshold. A preliminary experimental result shows that each type of activeness data exhibited a short-term autocorrelation; and among the three types of data, the consumed calories and the number of footsteps were positively correlated, while the heart rate data showed almost no correlation with neither of them. It is probably due to this characteristic of the dataset that although the RNN models produced the best results on modeling the user's activeness, the difference was marginal; and other baseline models, especially the linear regression model, performed quite admirably as well. Further experimental results show that it is feasible to predict a user's future activeness with precision, for example, a trained RNN model could predict-with the precision of 84%-when the user would be less active within the next hour given the latest 15 min of his activeness data. This paper defines and investigates the notion of a user's "activeness", and shows that forecasting the long-term activeness of the user is indeed possible. Such information can be utilized by a health-related application to proactively

  2. Modelling of chemical evolution of low pH cements at long term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Bitouri, Y.; Buffo-Lacarriere, L.; Sellier, A.; Bourbon, X.

    2015-01-01

    In the context of the underground radioactive waste repository, low-pH cements were developed to reduce interactions between concrete and clay barrier. These cements contain high proportions of mineral additions like silica fume, fly ash or blast furnace slag for example. The high ratio of cement replacement by pozzolanic additions allows to reduce the pH by a global reduction of Ca/Si ratio of the hydrates (according to the one observed on CEM I pastes). In order to predict the short term development of the hydration for each component of this cement, a multiphasic hydration model, previously developed, is used. The model predicts the evolution of hydration degree of each anhydrous phase and consequently the quantity of each hydrate in paste (CH, aluminates, CSH with different Ca/Si ratios). However, this model is not suitable to determine the long term mineralogical and chemical evolution of the material, due to the internal change induced by chemical imbalance between initial hydrates. In order to evaluate the chemical characteristics of low pH cement based materials, and thus assess its chemical stability in the context of radioactive waste storage, a complementary model of chemical evolution at long term is proposed. This original model is based on 'solid-solution' principles. It assumes that the microdiffusion of calcium plays a major role to explain how the different Ca/Si ratio of initial C-S-H tends together toward a medium stabilized value. The main mechanisms and full development of the model equations are presented first. Next, a comparison of the model with experimental data issue from EDS (Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy) analysis on low pH cement allows to test the model. (authors)

  3. The understanding of the R7T7 glass blocks long term behavior: chemical and transport coupling in fractured media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chomat, L.

    2008-04-01

    The long term behavior of nuclear waste glass blocks depends highly on chemical reactions which occur at the surface in contact with water. Studies carried out on inactive fractured glass blocks show that fracture networks play a significant part in reactive surface area. Nevertheless, the complexity of results interpretation, due to a weak knowledge of fracture networks and local lixiviation conditions, does not allow us to comprehend the physical and chemical mechanisms involved. Model cracks are a key step to study chemical and transport coupling in fractured media. Crack lixiviation in aggressive conditions (pH≥11) show that the crack's position (horizontal or vertical) determines the dominant transport mechanism (respectively diffusion or convection induced by gravity). This gravity driven flow seems to be negligible in lower pH conditions. The convective velocity is estimated by a 1D model of reactive transport. Two other parameters are studied: the influence of thermal gradient and the influence of interconnected cracks on alteration. A strong retroactive effect of convection, due to thermal gradient, on the alteration kinetic is observed inside the crack. These works lead to a complete alteration experiment of a 163 crack network subject to a thermal gradient. The use of the geochemical software, HYTEC, within the framework of this study shows the potential of the software which is however limited by the kinetics law used. (author)

  4. Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

    2016-01-01

    In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

  5. Modelling long term rockslide displacements with non-linear time-dependent relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Caro, Mattia; Volpi, Giorgio; Castellanza, Riccardo; Crosta, Giovanni; Agliardi, Federico

    2015-04-01

    Rockslides undergoing rapid changes in behaviour pose major risks in alpine areas, and require careful characterization and monitoring both for civil protection and mitigation activities. In particular, these instabilities can undergo very slow movement with occasional and intermittent acceleration/deceleration stages of motion potentially leading to collapse. Therefore, the analysis of such instabilities remains a challenging issue. Rockslide displacements are strongly conditioned by hydrologic factors as suggested by correlations with groundwater fluctuations, snowmelt, with a frequently observed delay between perturbation and system reaction. The aim of this work is the simulation of the complex time-dependent behaviour of two case studies for which also a 2D transient hydrogeological simulation has been performed: Vajont rockslide (1960 to 1963) and the recent Mt. de La Saxe rockslide (2009 to 2012). Non-linear time-dependent constitutive relationships have been used to describe long-term creep deformation. Analyses have been performed using a "rheological-mechanical" approach that fits idealized models (e.g. viscoelastic, viscoplastic, elasto-viscoplastic, Burgers, nonlinear visco-plastic) to the experimental behaviour of specific materials by means of numerical constants. Bidimensional simulations were carried out using the finite difference code FLAC. Displacements time-series, available for the two landslides, show two superimposed deformation mechanisms: a creep process, leading to movements under "steady state" conditions (e.g. constant groundwater level), and a "dynamic" process, leading to an increase in displacement rate due to changes of external loads (e.g. groundwater level). For both cases sliding mass is considered as an elasto-plastic body subject to its self-weight, inertial and seepage forces varying with time according to water table fluctuation (due to snowmelt or changing in reservoir level) and derived from the previous hydrogeological

  6. Modeling long-term yield trends of Miscanthusxgiganteus using experimental data from across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lesur, Claire; Jeuffroy, Marie-Hélène; Makowski, David

    2013-01-01

    and the ceiling phases and (ii) to determine whether M. giganteus ceiling phase is followed by a decline phase where yields decrease across years. Data were analyzed through comparisons between a set of statistical growth models. The model that best fitted the experimental data included a decline phase....... The decline intensity and the value of several other model parameters, such as the maximum yield reached during the ceiling phase or the duration of the establishment phase, were highly variable. The highest maximum yields were obtained in the experiments located in the southern part of the studied area....... giganteus is known to have an establishment phase during which annual yields increased as a function of crop age, followed by a ceiling phase, the duration of which is unknown. We built a database including 16 European long-term experiments (i) to describe the yield evolution during the establishment...

  7. Ability of the MACRO Model to Predict Long-Term Leaching of Metribuzin and Diketometribuzin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette E; Kjær, Jeanne; Henriksen, Trine

    2009-01-01

    In a regulatory context, numerical models are increasingly employed to quantify leaching of pesticides and their metabolites. Although the ability of these models to accurately simulate leaching of pesticides has been evaluated, little is known about their ability to accurately simulate long...... alternative kinetics (a two-site approach), we captured the observed leaching scenario, thus underlining the necessity of accounting for the long-term sorption and dissipation characteristics when using models to predict the risk of groundwater contamination.......-term leaching of metabolites. A Danish study on the dissipation and sorption of metribuzin, involving both monitoring and batch experiments, concluded that desorption and degradation of metribuzin and leaching of its primary metabolite diketometribuzin continued for 5-6 years after application, posing a risk...

  8. Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hainoun, A.; Seif Aldin, M.; Almoustafa, S.

    2010-01-01

    An optimal long-term energy supply strategy has been formulated based on minimizing the total system costs for the entire study period 2003-2030. The national energy chain was modelled covering all energy levels and conversion technologies. The results indicate that the primary energy will grow at annual average rate of 4.8% arriving 68 Mtoe in 2030. The total installed electric capacity will be optimally expanded from 6885 to 19500 MW in 2030. Furthermore, to ensure supply security the future national energy system will rely mainly upon oil and natural gas (NG) with limited contribution of renewables and nuclear to the end of study period. The share of NG will increase gradually up to 2020 and then retreat. Owing to the continuous decrease of oil production, oil export is expected to vanish in 2012 and the country will import about 63% of its primary energy demand in 2030. Thus, the expected long-term development of national energy sector indicates a hard challenge for the future national economy. The employing of sensitivity analysis clarifies the importance of wind turbines operation time and discount rate. The analysis proves that nuclear option is insensitive to overnight cost increase up to 85% of the reference case value.

  9. Long-term leaching from MSWI air-pollution-control residues: Leaching characterization and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyks, Jiri; Astrup, Thomas; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2009-01-01

    Long-term leaching of Ca, Fe, Mg, K, Na, S, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mo, Sb, Si, Sri, Sr, Ti, V, P, Cl, and dissolved organic carbon from two different municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) air-pollution-control residues was monitored during 24 months of column percolat......Long-term leaching of Ca, Fe, Mg, K, Na, S, Al, As, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mo, Sb, Si, Sri, Sr, Ti, V, P, Cl, and dissolved organic carbon from two different municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) air-pollution-control residues was monitored during 24 months of column...... percolation experiments; liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios of 200-250 L/kg corresponding to more than 10,000 years in a conventional landfill were reached. Less than 2% of the initially present As, Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, and Sb had leached during the Course of the experiments. Concentrations of Cd, Fe, Mg, Hg, Mn, Ni, Co......, Sn, Ti, and P were generally bellow 1 mu g/L; overall less than 1% of their mass leached. Column leaching data were further used in a two-step geochemical modeling in PHREEQC in order to (i) identify solubility controlling minerals and (ii) evaluate their interactions in a water-percolated column...

  10. Long-term following-up of viability of spleen autotransplants in the Beagle canine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajtos, Erika; Balint, Anita; Brath, Endre; Nemeth, Norbert; Peto, Katalin; Kovacs, Judit; Galuska, Laszlo; Varga, Jozsef; Fodor, Zoltan; Furka, Istvan; Miko, Iren

    2012-02-01

    To examine the possible late complications of splenectomy or spleen autotransplantation in large laboratory animal model, in which we need non-invasive or minimal-invasive methods for long-term monitoring of the experimental animals. Experimental groups of beagle dogs were: non-operated control, sham-operated control, splenectomy, spleen autotransplantation with 5 or 10 spleen-chips taken into the greater omentum (Furka's technique). Prior to operations, on the 1(st) postoperative week, monthly till the 6(th) as well as in the 9(th) and 12(th) month, hemorheological examinations were performed. In postoperative 12(th) month colloid scintigraphy and diagnostic laparoscopy were carried out. At the end of the investigation comparative morphological examinations were performed, too. From the 4(th)-5(th) postoperative month filtration function of spleen-autotransplants showed particular restoration compared to splenectomy group. However, the functional results did not reach the values of the control or sham-operated groups. Sham-operated control's scintigraphy nicely showed activity in the spleen. In spleen autotransplantation-groups scintigraphy indicated well the activity of spleen-chips. During diagnostic laparoscopy spleen-chips with their blood supply were found. Histologically, the structure of spleen-autotransplants was similar to normal splenic tissue. The autotransplants are regenerated, their functions have been partly restored, and thus spleen autotransplantation may prevent the possible complications of splenectomy. These parameters and the presented investigative protocol are suitable for long-term following-up of viability of the spleen-autotransplants.

  11. Waste Disposal: Long-term Performance Studies for Radioactive Waste Disposal and Hydrogeological Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marivoet, J

    2000-07-01

    The main objectives of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on long-term performance studies are: (1) to develop a methodology and associated tools for assessing the long-term safety of geological disposal of all types of radioactive waste in clay formations and of the shallow-land burial of low-level waste; (2) to assess the performance and to identify the most influential elements of integrated repository systems for the disposal of radioactive waste; (3) to collect geological, piezometric and hydraulic data required for studying the hydrogeological system in north-eastern Belgium; (4) to develop a regional aquifer model for north-easter Belgium and to apply it in the performance assessments for the Mol site; (5) to test, verify and improve computer codes used in the performance assessment calculations of waste disposal concepts and contaminated sites (the computer codes simulate water flow and transport of radionuclides in engineered barriers, aquifers and contaminated sites). The scientific programme and achievements in 1999 are described.

  12. Long-Term Evaluation of Ocean Tidal Variation Models of Polar Motion and UT1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karbon, Maria; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Belda, Santiago; Nilsson, Tobias; Hagedoorn, Jan; Schuh, Harald

    2018-04-01

    Recent improvements in the development of VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) and other space geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) require very precise a-priori information of short-period (daily and sub-daily) Earth rotation variations. One significant contribution to Earth rotation is caused by the diurnal and semi-diurnal ocean tides. Within this work, we developed a new model for the short-period ocean tidal variations in Earth rotation, where the ocean tidal angular momentum model and the Earth rotation variation have been setup jointly. Besides the model of the short-period variation of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP), based on the empirical ocean tide model EOT11a, we developed also ERP models, that are based on the hydrodynamic ocean tide models FES2012 and HAMTIDE. Furthermore, we have assessed the effect of uncertainties in the elastic Earth model on the resulting ERP models. Our proposed alternative ERP model to the IERS 2010 conventional model considers the elastic model PREM and 260 partial tides. The choice of the ocean tide model and the determination of the tidal velocities have been identified as the main uncertainties. However, in the VLBI analysis all models perform on the same level of accuracy. From these findings, we conclude that the models presented here, which are based on a re-examined theoretical description and long-term satellite altimetry observation only, are an alternative for the IERS conventional model but do not improve the geodetic results.

  13. Characterization, Long-Term Behavior Evaluation and Thermomechanical Properties of Untreated and Treated Flax Fiber-Reinforced Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Ali

    In recent years there has been a resurgence of interest in the usage of natural fiber reinforced composites in more advanced structural applications. Consequently, the need for improving their mechanical properties as well as service life and long-term behavior modeling and predictions has arisen. In a step towards further development of these materials, in this study, two newly developed biobased resins, derived from soybean oil, methacrylated epoxidized sucrose soyate and double methacrylated epoxidized sucrose soyate are combined with untreated and alkaline treated flax fiber to produce novel biocomposites. Vinyl ester reinforced with flax fiber is used as control in addition to comparing properties of biobased composites against commercial pultruded composites. Effects of alkaline treatment of flax fiber as well as addition of 1% acrylic resin to vinyl ester and the two mentioned biobased resins on mechanical properties are studied. Properties are evaluated in short-term and also, after being exposed to accelerated weathering (i.e. UV and moisture). Moreover, long-term creep of these novel biobased composites and effect of fiber and matrix treatment on viscoelastic behavior is investigated using Time-temperature superposition (TTS) principle. Based on the results of this study, the TTS provides an accelerated method for evaluation of mechanical properties of biobased composites, and satisfactory master curves are achieved by use of this principle. Also, fiber and matrix treatments were effective in increasing mechanical properties of biobased composites in short-term, and treatments delayed the creep response and slowed the process of creep in composites under study in the steady state region. Overall, results of this study reveal the successful production of biocomposites having properties that meet or exceed those of conventional pultruded members while maintaining high biocontent. Composites using treated flax fiber and newly developed resins showed less

  14. Development of a dispatch model of the European power system for coupling with a long-term foresight energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-12-01

    Renewable sources of electricity production are strongly increasing in many parts of the world. The production costs are going down quickly, thus accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind electricity generation. In the long-term, these variable sources of electricity could represent a high share of the power system. However, long-term foresight energy models have difficulties describing precisely the integration challenges of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) such as wind or solar. They just do not represent the short-term technical constraints of the power sector. The objective of this paper is to show a new approach of the representation of the challenges of variability in the long-term foresight energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We develop a short-term optimization model for the power sector operation, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment and Dispatch) and we couple it to POLES year after year. The direct coupling, with bi-directional exchanges of information, brings technical precision to the long-term coherence of energy scenarios. (author)

  15. Integrating Modeling and Monitoring to Provide Long-Term Control of Contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fogwell, Th.

    2009-01-01

    An introduction is presented of the types of problems that exist for long-term control of radionuclides at DOE sites. A breakdown of the distributions at specific sites is given, together with the associated difficulties. A paradigm for remediation showing the integration of monitoring with modeling is presented. It is based on a feedback system that allows for the monitoring to act as principal sensors in a control system. Currently the establishment of a very prescriptive monitoring program fails to have a mechanism for improving models and improving control of the contaminants. The resulting system can be optimized to improve performance. Optimizing monitoring automatically entails linking the monitoring with modeling. If monitoring designs were required to be more efficient, thus requiring optimization, then the monitoring automatically becomes linked to modeling. Records of decision could be written to accommodate revisions in monitoring as better modeling evolves. The technical pieces of the required paradigm are already available; they just need to be implemented and applied to solve the long-term control of the contaminants. An integration of the various parts of the system is presented. Each part is described, and examples are given. References are given to other projects which bring together similar elements in systems for the control of contaminants. Trends are given for the development of the technical features of a robust system. Examples of monitoring methods for specific sites are given. The examples are used to illustrate how such a system would work. Examples of technology needs are presented. Finally, other examples of integrated modeling-monitoring approaches are presented. (authors)

  16. Phospholipase A₂: the key to reversing long-term memory impairment in a gastropod model of aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Shawn N; Wright, Natasha; Hermann, Petra M; Wildering, Willem C

    2013-02-01

    Memory failure associated with changes in neuronal circuit functions rather than cell death is a common feature of normal aging in diverse animal species. The (neuro)biological foundations of this phenomenon are not well understood although oxidative stress, particularly in the guise of lipid peroxidation, is suspected to play a key role. Using an invertebrate model system of age-associated memory impairment that supports direct correlation between behavioral deficits and changes in the underlying neural substrate, we show that inhibition of phospholipase A(2) (PLA(2)) abolishes both long-term memory (LTM) and neural defects observed in senescent subjects and subjects exposed to experimental oxidative stress. Using a combination of behavioral assessments and electrophysiological techniques, we provide evidence for a close link between lipid peroxidation, provocation of phospholipase A(2)-dependent free fatty acid release, decline of neuronal excitability, and age-related long-term memory impairments. This supports the view that these processes suspend rather than irreversibly extinguish the aging nervous system's intrinsic capacity for plasticity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A conceptual framework for a long-term economic model for the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Balázs; Setyawan, Juliana; Coghill, David; Soroncz-Szabó, Tamás; Kaló, Zoltán; Doshi, Jalpa A

    2017-06-01

    Models incorporating long-term outcomes (LTOs) are not available to assess the health economic impact of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Develop a conceptual modelling framework capable of assessing long-term economic impact of ADHD therapies. Literature was reviewed; a conceptual structure for the long-term model was outlined with attention to disease characteristics and potential impact of treatment strategies. The proposed model has four layers: i) multi-state short-term framework to differentiate between ADHD treatments; ii) multiple states being merged into three core health states associated with LTOs; iii) series of sub-models in which particular LTOs are depicted; iv) outcomes collected to be either used directly for economic analyses or translated into other relevant measures. This conceptual model provides a framework to assess relationships between short- and long-term outcomes of the disease and its treatment, and to estimate the economic impact of ADHD treatments throughout the course of the disease.

  18. Global economics/energy/environmental (E3) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    A global energy, economics, environment (E 3 ) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors

  19. The long-term variability of cosmic ray protons in the heliosphere: A modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.S. Potgieter

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Galactic cosmic rays are charged particles created in our galaxy and beyond. They propagate through interstellar space to eventually reach the heliosphere and Earth. Their transport in the heliosphere is subjected to four modulation processes: diffusion, convection, adiabatic energy changes and particle drifts. Time-dependent changes, caused by solar activity which varies from minimum to maximum every ∼11 years, are reflected in cosmic ray observations at and near Earth and along spacecraft trajectories. Using a time-dependent compound numerical model, the time variation of cosmic ray protons in the heliosphere is studied. It is shown that the modeling approach is successful and can be used to study long-term modulation cycles.

  20. Differences Awareness Model to Fundament Long Term Strategy Extension in a New Emerging Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Mădălina ŞERBAN

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The globalization opened the opportunity for multinational companies to increase their businesses in emerging markets and also to local giants from developing countries to step in the western markets. The objective of this paper is to propose a model for analyzing the differences between operating businesses in emerging markets and developed markets. The model purpose is to be applied in the strategic process by mainly the multinationals or local giants intending to develop long term businesses outside their traditional geographies. The studies on emerging markets identified two main axes to be considered when appreciating the attractiveness of the markets: the business dynamics both inside and outside the company and the institutional environment, as facilitator of efficient encounter between sellers and buyers.

  1. Prior exposure to interpersonal violence and long-term treatment response for boys with a disruptive behavior disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenk, Chad E; Dorn, Lorah D; Kolko, David J; Rausch, Joseph R; Insana, Salvatore P

    2014-10-01

    Interpersonal violence (IPV) is common in children with a disruptive behavior disorder (DBD) and increases the risk for greater DBD symptom severity, callous-unemotional (CU) traits, and neuroendocrine disruption. Thus, IPV may make it difficult to change symptom trajectories for families receiving DBD interventions given these relationships. The current study examined whether IPV prior to receiving treatment for a DBD predicted trajectories of a variety of associated outcomes, specifically DBD symptoms, CU traits, and cortisol concentrations. Boys with a DBD diagnosis (N = 66; age range = 6-11 years; 54.5% of whom experienced IPV prior to treatment) of either oppositional defiant disorder or conduct disorder participated in a randomized clinical trial and were assessed 3 years following treatment. Multilevel modeling demonstrated that prior IPV predicted smaller rates of change in DBD symptoms, CU traits, and cortisol trajectories, indicating less benefit from intervention. The effect size magnitudes of IPV were large for each outcome (d = 0.88-1.07). These results suggest that IPV is a predictor of the long-term treatment response for boys with a DBD. Including trauma-focused components into existing DBD interventions may be worth testing to improve treatment effectiveness for boys with a prior history of IPV. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

  2. A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

    2010-11-01

    Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The regional climate model as a tool for long-term planning of Quebec water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigon, A.

    2008-01-01

    'Full text': In recent years, important progress has been made in downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model) projections to a resolution where hydrological studies become feasible. Climate change simulations performed with RCMs (Regional Climate Models) have reached a level of confidence that allows us to take advantage of this information in long-term planning of water resources. The RCMs' main advantage consist in their construction based on balanced land as well as atmosphere water and energy budgets, and on their inclusion of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere. Such models therefore generate sequences of weather events, providing long time series of hydro-climatic variables that are internally consistent, allowing the analysis of hydrologic regimes. At OURANOS, special attention is placed on the hydrological cycle, given its key role on socioeconomic activities. The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was developed as a potential tool to provide climate projections at the watershed scale. Various analyses performed over small basins in Quebec provide information on the level of confidence we have in the CRCM for use in hydrological studies. Even though this approach is not free of uncertainty, it was found useful by some water resource managers and hence this information should be considered. One of the keys to retain usefulness, despite the associated uncertainties, is to make use of more than a single regional climate projection. This approach will allow for the evaluation of the climate change signal and its associated level of confidence. Such a methodology is already applied by Hydro-Quebec in the long-term planning of its water resources for hydroelectric generation over the Quebec territory. (author)

  4. Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

    2016-01-01

    Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

  5. Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1997-10-01

    Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

  6. Reforming Management of Behavior Symptoms and Psychiatric Conditions in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Different Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levenson, Steven A; Desai, Abhilash K

    2017-04-01

    Despite much attention including national initiatives, concerns remain about the approaches to managing behavior symptoms and psychiatric conditions across all settings, including in long-term care settings such as nursing homes and assisted living facilities. One key reason why problems persist is because most efforts to "reform" and "correct" the situation have failed to explore or address root causes and instead have promoted inadequate piecemeal "solutions." Further improvement requires jumping off the bandwagon and rethinking the entire issue, including recognizing and applying key concepts of clinical reasoning and the care delivery process to every situation. The huge negative impact of cognitive biases and rote approaches on related clinical problem solving and decision making and patient outcomes also must be addressed. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

    Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

  8. Modelling impacts of atmospheric deposition and temperature on long-term DOC trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, K; Rowe, E C; Evans, C D; Monteith, D T; E I Vanguelova; Wade, A J; J M Clark

    2017-02-01

    It is increasingly recognised that widespread and substantial increases in Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in remote surface, and soil, waters in recent decades are linked to declining acid deposition. Effects of rising pH and declining ionic strength on DOC solubility have been proposed as potential dominant mechanisms. However, since DOC in these systems is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and since organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists over the extent to which other drivers that could influence DOC production. Such potential drivers include fertilisation by nitrogen (N) and global warming. We therefore ran the dynamic soil chemistry model MADOC for a range of UK soils, for which time series data are available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on soil DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to raise the "acid recovery DOC baseline" significantly. In contrast, reductions in non-marine chloride deposition and effects of long term warming appeared to have been relatively unimportant. The suggestion that future DOC concentrations might exceed preindustrial levels as a consequence of nitrogen pollution has important implications for drinking water catchment management and the setting and pursuit of appropriate restoration targets, but findings still require validation from reliable centennial-scale proxy records, such as those being developed

  9. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16% followed by natural gas (36.57%, electricity (16.22%, coal (7.52% and LPG (1.52% in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

  10. Rodent model for assessing the long term safety and performance of peripheral nerve recording electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasudevan, Srikanth; Patel, Kunal; Welle, Cristin

    2017-02-01

    Objective. In the US alone, there are approximately 185 000 cases of limb amputation annually, which can reduce the quality of life for those individuals. Current prosthesis technology could be improved by access to signals from the nervous system for intuitive prosthesis control. After amputation, residual peripheral nerves continue to convey motor signals and electrical stimulation of these nerves can elicit sensory percepts. However, current technology for extracting information directly from peripheral nerves has limited chronic reliability, and novel approaches must be vetted to ensure safe long-term use. The present study aims to optimize methods to establish a test platform using rodent model to assess the long term safety and performance of electrode interfaces implanted in the peripheral nerves. Approach. Floating Microelectrode Arrays (FMA, Microprobes for Life Sciences) were implanted into the rodent sciatic nerve. Weekly in vivo recordings and impedance measurements were performed in animals to assess performance and physical integrity of electrodes. Motor (walking track analysis) and sensory (Von Frey) function tests were used to assess change in nerve function due to the implant. Following the terminal recording session, the nerve was explanted and the health of axons, myelin and surrounding tissues were assessed using immunohistochemistry (IHC). The explanted electrodes were visualized under high magnification using scanning electrode microscopy (SEM) to observe any physical damage. Main results. Recordings of axonal action potentials demonstrated notable session-to-session variability. Impedance of the electrodes increased upon implantation and displayed relative stability until electrode failure. Initial deficits in motor function recovered by 2 weeks, while sensory deficits persisted through 6 weeks of assessment. The primary cause of failure was identified as lead wire breakage in all of animals. IHC indicated myelinated and unmyelinated axons

  11. Verification of atmospheric diffusion models using data of long term atmospheric diffusion experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamura, Junji; Kido, Hiroko; Hato, Shinji; Homma, Toshimitsu

    2009-03-01

    Straight-line or segmented plume models as atmospheric diffusion models are commonly used in probabilistic accident consequence assessment (PCA) codes due to cost and time savings. The PCA code, OSCAAR developed by Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (Present; Japan Atomic Energy Agency) uses the variable puff trajectory model to calculate atmospheric transport and dispersion of released radionuclides. In order to investigate uncertainties involved with the structure of the atmospheric dispersion/deposition model in OSCAAR, we have introduced the more sophisticated computer codes that included regional meteorological models RAMS and atmospheric transport model HYPACT, which were developed by Colorado State University, and comparative analyses between OSCAAR and RAMS/HYPACT have been performed. In this study, model verification of OSCAAR and RAMS/HYPACT was conducted using data of long term atmospheric diffusion experiments, which were carried out in Tokai-mura, Ibaraki-ken. The predictions by models and the results of the atmospheric diffusion experiments indicated relatively good agreements. And it was shown that model performance of OSCAAR was the same degree as it of RAMS/HYPACT. (author)

  12. Establishing the long-term fuel management scheme using point reactivity model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Yong-Soo; Kim, Jae-Hak; Lee, Young-Ouk; Song, Jae-Woong; Zee, Sung-Kyun

    1994-01-01

    A new approach to establish the long-term fuel management scheme is presented in this paper. The point reactivity model is used to predict the core average reactivity. An attempt to calculate batchwise power fraction is introduced through the two-dimensional nodal power algorithm based on the modified one-group diffusion equation and the number of fuel assemblies on the core periphery. Suggested is an empirical formula to estimate the radial leakage reactivity with ripe core design experience reflected. This approach predicts the cycle lengths and the discharge burnups of individual fuel batches up to an equilibrium core when the proper input data such as batch enrichment, batch size, type and content of burnable poison and reloading strategies are given. Eight benchmark calculations demonstrate that the new approach used in this study is reasonably accurate and highly efficient for the purpose of scoping calculation when compared with design code predictions. (author)

  13. Modelling the long-term evolution of geological radwaste disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dames and Moore International Twickenham

    1990-01-01

    The report aims to answer questions such as How much do we know about environmental change, How does it apply to the performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal sites and What methods are available for incorporating considerations of environmental change into performance assessment. The document comprises two parts: Part 1 presents a review of the status of research into the effects of long-term environmental changes on deep land disposal facilities for radioactive waste, and then outlines a general specification for modelling these efforts; Part 2 presents background research on permafrost evolution and its potential effects on groundwater systems. Although much work exists on the growth of ice in soils, at shallow levels, relatively little is known about the growth of deep permafrost. A large appendix is devoted to the theoretical work on permafrost growth and its conclusions

  14. Long-Term Creep Behavior of the Intervertebral Disk: Comparison between Bioreactor Data and Numerical Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, A. P. G., E-mail: apgcastro@dem.uminho.pt [Center for Mechanical and Materials Technologies, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Minho, Guimarães (Portugal); INSIGNEO Institute for in silico Medicine, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Paul, C. P. L. [Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Research Institute MOVE, Faculty of Human Movement Sciences, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Detiger, S. E. L.; Smit, T. H.; Royen, B. J. van [Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Research Institute MOVE, Faculty of Human Movement Sciences, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Skeletal Tissue Engineering Group Amsterdam, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Pimenta Claro, J. C. [Center for Mechanical and Materials Technologies, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Minho, Guimarães (Portugal); Mullender, M. G. [Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Research Institute MOVE, Faculty of Human Movement Sciences, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Plastic, Reconstructive and Hand Surgery, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Alves, J. L. [Center for Mechanical and Materials Technologies, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Minho, Guimarães (Portugal)

    2014-11-20

    The loaded disk culture system is an intervertebral disk (IVD)-oriented bioreactor developed by the VU Medical Center (VUmc, Amsterdam, The Netherlands), which has the capacity of maintaining up to 12 IVDs in culture, for approximately 3 weeks after extraction. Using this system, eight goat IVDs were provided with the essential nutrients and submitted to compression tests without losing their biomechanical and physiological properties, for 22 days. Based on previous reports (Paul et al., 2012, 2013; Detiger et al., 2013), four of these IVDs were kept in physiological condition (control) and the other four were previously injected with chondroitinase ABC (CABC), in order to promote degenerative disk disease (DDD). The loading profile intercalated 16 h of activity loading with 8 h of loading recovery to express the standard circadian variations. The displacement behavior of these eight IVDs along the first 2 days of the experiment was numerically reproduced, using an IVD osmo-poro-hyper-viscoelastic and fiber-reinforced finite element (FE) model. The simulations were run on a custom FE solver (Castro et al., 2014). The analysis of the experimental results allowed concluding that the effect of the CABC injection was only significant in two of the four IVDs. The four control IVDs showed no signs of degeneration, as expected. In what concerns to the numerical simulations, the IVD FE model was able to reproduce the generic behavior of the two groups of goat IVDs (control and injected). However, some discrepancies were still noticed on the comparison between the injected IVDs and the numerical simulations, namely on the recovery periods. This may be justified by the complexity of the pathways for DDD, associated with the multiplicity of physiological responses to each direct or indirect stimulus. Nevertheless, one could conclude that ligaments, muscles, and IVD covering membranes could be added to the FE model, in order to improve its accuracy and properly describe the

  15. Long-Term Creep Behavior of the Intervertebral Disc: Comparison between Bioreactor Data and Numerical Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    APG eCastro

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Loaded Disc Culture System (LDCS is an Intervertebral Disc (IVD-oriented bioreactor developed by the VU Medical Center (VUmc, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, which has the capacity of maintaining up to 12 IVDs in culture, for approximately 3 weeks after extraction. Using this system, 8 goat IVDs were provided with the essential nutrients and submitted to compression tests without losing their biomechanical and physiological properties, for 22 days. Based on previous reports (Detiger et al., 2013; Paul et al., 2013, 2012, 4 of these IVDs were kept in physiological condition (control and the other 4 were previously injected with chondroitinase ABC (CABC, in order to promote Degenerative Disc Disease (DDD. The loading profile intercalated 16h of activity loading with 8h of loading recovery to express the standard circadian variations.The displacement behavior of these 8 IVDs along the first 2 days of the experiment was numerically reproduced, using an IVD osmo-poro-hyper-viscoelastic and fiber-reinforced Finite Element (FE model. The simulations were run on a custom FE solver (Castro et al., 2014.The analysis of the experimental results allowed concluding that the effect of the CABC injection was only significant in 2 of the 4 IVDs. The 4 control IVDs showed no signs of degeneration, as expected. In what concerns to the numerical simulations, the IVD FE model was able to reproduce the generic behavior of the two groups of goat IVDs (control and injected. However, some discrepancies were still noticed on the comparison between the injected IVDs and the numerical simulations, namely on the recovery periods. This may be justified by the complexity of the pathways for DDD, associated with the multiplicity of physiological responses to each direct or indirect stimulus. Nevertheless, one could conclude that ligaments, muscles and IVD covering membranes could be added to the FE model, in order to improve its accuracy and properly describe the recovery

  16. Implementing CUAHSI and SWE observation data models in the long-term monitoring infrastructure TERENO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klump, J. F.; Stender, V.; Schroeder, M.

    2013-12-01

    Terrestrial Environmental Observatories (TERENO) is an interdisciplinary and long-term research project spanning an Earth observation network across Germany. It includes four test sites within Germany from the North German lowlands to the Bavarian Alps and is operated by six research centers of the Helmholtz Association. The contribution by the participating research centers is organized as regional observatories. The challenge for TERENO and its observatories is to integrate all aspects of data management, data workflows, data modeling and visualizations into the design of a monitoring infrastructure. TERENO Northeast is one of the sub-observatories of TERENO and is operated by the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ in Potsdam. This observatory investigates geoecological processes in the northeastern lowland of Germany by collecting large amounts of environmentally relevant data. The success of long-term projects like TERENO depends on well-organized data management, data exchange between the partners involved and on the availability of the captured data. Data discovery and dissemination are facilitated not only through data portals of the regional TERENO observatories but also through a common spatial data infrastructure TEODOOR. TEODOOR bundles the data, provided by the different web services of the single observatories, and provides tools for data discovery, visualization and data access. The TERENO Northeast data infrastructure integrates data from more than 200 instruments and makes the data available through standard web services. Data are stored following the CUAHSI observation data model in combination with the 52° North Sensor Observation Service data model. The data model was implemented using the PostgreSQL/PostGIS DBMS. Especially in a long-term project, such as TERENO, care has to be taken in the data model. We chose to adopt the CUAHSI observational data model because it is designed to store observations and descriptive information (metadata

  17. Modeling the long-term effects of introduced herbivores on the spread of an invasive tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Rayamajhi, Min B.; Botkin, Daniel B.

    2017-01-01

    ContextMelaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (hereafter melaleuca) is an invasive tree from Australia that has spread over the freshwater ecosystems of southern Florida, displacing native vegetation, thus threatening native biodiversity. Suppression of melaleuca appears to be progressing through the introduction of insect species, the weevil, Oxiops vitiosa, and the psyllid, Boreioglycaspis melaleucae.ObjectiveTo improve understanding of the possible effects of herbivory on the landscape dynamics of melaleuca in native southern Florida plant communities.MethodsWe projected likely future changes in plant communities using the individual based modeling platform, JABOWA-II, by simulating successional processes occurring in two types of southern Florida habitat, cypress swamp and bay swamp, occupied by native species and melaleuca, with the impact of insect herbivores.ResultsComputer simulations show melaleuca invasion leads to decreases in density and basal area of native species, but herbivory would effectively control melaleuca to low levels, resulting in a recovery of native species. When herbivory was modeled on pure melaleuca stands, it was more effective in stands with initially larger-sized melaleuca. Although the simulated herbivory did not eliminate melaleuca, it decreased its presence dramatically in all cases, supporting the long-term effectiveness of herbivory in controlling melaleuca invasion.ConclusionsThe results provide three conclusions relevant to management: (1) The introduction of insect herbivory that has been applied to melaleuca appears sufficient to suppress melaleuca over the long term, (2) dominant native species may recover in about 50 years, and (3) regrowth of native species will further suppress melaleuca through competition.

  18. Long-term records and modelling of acidification, recovery and liming at Lake Hovvatn, Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hindar, A. [Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Grimstad (Norway); Wright, R.F. [Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Oslo (Norway)

    2005-11-01

    Scenarios for acidification in Europe have shown that large parts of southern Norway will be negatively impacted by sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions in the future. Long-term data of acidification and recovery as well as the effects of a liming program at Lake Store Hovvatn were presented in this paper, along with data collected from Lake Lille Hovvatn as unlimed reference. Water samples from the lakes were collected 5 times annually from varying depths. Total organic carbon was measured after wet chemical oxidation by infrared detection. Acidification hindcasts and forecasts for the period 1870-2050 were conducted with the dynamic model MAGIC, which simulated soil solution and surface water chemistry to predict average concentrations of the major ions. The model showed good agreement with major changes in water chemistry observed over the past 30 years, as well simulating pH and concentrations of inorganic aluminium (Al). The data were evaluated in terms of the prospects for the re-establishment of a self-sustaining brown trout population. All liming efforts at Lake Store Hovvatn resulted in improvements in water quality. However, the stocked fish showed excellent survival and growth rates after liming but no natural recruitment, which suggested that fish eggs at shallow depths under ice cover are a sensitive biological indicator. Continuous records of pH revealed serious difficulties in maintaining adequate water quality at shallow depths in winter. While various liming techniques were discussed, it was concluded that the problem of surface water acidification in southern Norway is not solved, and a long-term strategy is called for. 45 refs., 5 tabs., 6 figs.

  19. Contributions of vitreous natural analogs to the investigation of long-term nuclear glass behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Techer, I.

    1999-01-01

    This study assesses the extend of the analogy between the alteration behavior in water and in a moist clay environment of aluminosilicate volcanic glass and alumino-borosilicate nuclear containment glass. Basaltic glass alteration in water initially occurs by hydrolysis processes with an activation energy on the order of 73 kJ.mol -1 . As the reaction progresses, the alteration rate drops by over four orders of magnitude from the initial rate r 0 , The alteration kinetics are not governed by the alteration solution chemistry alone, the glass alteration film appears to have a major role as a diffusion barrier limiting the transfer of reaction species and products. All these aspects highlight the behavioral analogy between basaltic glass and nuclear borosilicate glass in aqueous media. Conversely, the alteration reaction of obsidian-type volcanic glass involves other mechanisms than those governing the dissolution of borosilicate glass. Basaltic glass alteration is also examined in the presence of a clay environmental material, in a study of the natural basaltic glass and argillaceous pelites system of the Salagou basin in southern France, in an approach combining mineralogical, chemical and isotopic data to assess the interactions between a basaltic glass and the argillaceous pelites. Laboratory leach test results with basaltic glass and measured data for the Salagou glass in its natural environment are modeled using a code implementing a kinetic law coupling diffusive transfer of dissolved silica with a reaction affinity law. (author)

  20. Long-term relations among prosocial-media use, empathy, and prosocial behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prot, Sara; Gentile, Douglas A; Anderson, Craig A; Suzuki, Kanae; Swing, Edward; Lim, Kam Ming; Horiuchi, Yukiko; Jelic, Margareta; Krahé, Barbara; Liuqing, Wei; Liau, Albert K; Khoo, Angeline; Petrescu, Poesis Diana; Sakamoto, Akira; Tajima, Sachi; Toma, Roxana Andreea; Warburton, Wayne; Zhang, Xuemin; Lam, Ben Chun Pan

    2014-02-01

    Despite recent growth of research on the effects of prosocial media, processes underlying these effects are not well understood. Two studies explored theoretically relevant mediators and moderators of the effects of prosocial media on helping. Study 1 examined associations among prosocial- and violent-media use, empathy, and helping in samples from seven countries. Prosocial-media use was positively associated with helping. This effect was mediated by empathy and was similar across cultures. Study 2 explored longitudinal relations among prosocial-video-game use, violent-video-game use, empathy, and helping in a large sample of Singaporean children and adolescents measured three times across 2 years. Path analyses showed significant longitudinal effects of prosocial- and violent-video-game use on prosocial behavior through empathy. Latent-growth-curve modeling for the 2-year period revealed that change in video-game use significantly affected change in helping, and that this relationship was mediated by change in empathy.

  1. Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul-Yong Lee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the long-term, crude oil prices may impact the economic stability and sustainability of many countries, especially those depending on oil imports. This study thus suggests an alternative model for accurately forecasting oil prices while reflecting structural changes in the oil market by using a Bayesian approach. The prior information is derived from the recent and expected structure of the oil market, using a subjective approach, and then updated with available market data. The model includes as independent variables factors affecting oil prices, such as world oil demand and supply, the financial situation, upstream costs, and geopolitical events. To test the model’s forecasting performance, it is compared with other models, including a linear ordinary least squares model and a neural network model. The proposed model outperforms on the forecasting performance test even though the neural network model shows the best results on a goodness-of-fit test. The results show that the crude oil price is estimated to increase to $169.3/Bbl by 2040.

  2. Modelling Long-Term Evolution of Cementitious Materials Used in Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, D.; Perko, J.; Seetharam, S.; Govaerts, J.; Mallants, D.

    2013-01-01

    This report summarizes the latest developments at SCK-CEN in modelling long-term evolution of cementitious materials used as engineered barriers in waste disposal. In a first section chemical degradation of concrete during leaching with rain and soil water types is discussed. The geochemical evolution of concrete thus obtained forms the basis for all further modelling. Next we show how the leaching model is coupled with a reactive transport module to determine leaching of cement minerals under diffusive or advective boundary conditions. The module also contains a simplified microstructural model from which hydraulic and transport properties of concrete may be calculated dynamically. This coupled model is simplified, i.e. abstracted prior to being applied to large-scale concrete structures typical of a near-surface repository. Both the original and simplified models are then used to calculate the evolution of hydraulic, transport, and chemical properties of concrete. Characteristic degradation states of concrete are further linked to distribution ratios that describe sorption onto hardened cement via a linear and reversible sorption process. As concrete degrades and pH drops the distribution ratios are continuously updated. We have thus integrated all major chemical and physical concrete degradation processes into one simulator for a particular scale of interest. Two simulators are used: one that can operate at relatively small spatial scales using all process details and another one which simulates concrete degradation at the scale of the repository but with a simplified cement model representation. (author)

  3. Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

    2017-04-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

  4. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  5. A three-component analytic model of long-term climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, V. R.

    2011-12-01

    On the premise that fast climate fluctuations up to and including the 11-year solar cycle play a negligible role in long-term climate forecasting, we remove these from the 160-year HADCRUT3 global land-sea temperature record and model the result as the sum of a log-raised-exponential (log(b+exp(t))) and two sine waves of respective periods 56 and 75 years coinciding in phase in 1925. The latter two can be understood equivalently as a 62-year-period "carrier" modulated with a 440-year period that peaked in 1925 and vanished in 1705. This model gives an excellent fit, explaining 98% of the variance (r^2) of long-term climate over the 160 years. We derive the first component as the composition of Arrhenius's 1896 logarithmic dependence of surface temperature on CO2 with Hofmann's 2009 raised-exponential dependence of CO2 on time, but interpret its fit to the data as the net anthropogenic contribution incorporating all greenhouse and aerosol emissions and relevant feedbacks, bearing in mind the rapid growth in both population and technology. The 56-year oscillation matches the largest component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while the 75-year one is near an oscillation often judged to be in the vicinity of 70 years. The expected 1705 cancellation is about two decades earlier than suggested by Gray et al's tree-ring proxy for the AMO during 1567-1990 [Gray GPL 31, L12205]. While there is no consensus on the origin of ocean oscillations, the oscillations in geomagnetic secular variation noted by Nagata and Rimitake in 1963 and Slaucitajs and Winch in 1965, of respective periods 77 years and 61 years, correspond strikingly with our 76-year oscillation and 62-year "carrier." This model has a number of benefits. Simplicity. It is easily explained to a lay audience in response to the frequently voiced concern that the temperature record is poorly correlated with the CO2 record alone. It shows that the transition from natural to anthropogenic influences on long-term

  6. Long-Term Adult Feline Liver Organoid Cultures for Disease Modeling of Hepatic Steatosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedwig S. Kruitwagen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Hepatic steatosis is a highly prevalent liver disease, yet research is hampered by the lack of tractable cellular and animal models. Steatosis also occurs in cats, where it can cause severe hepatic failure. Previous studies demonstrate the potential of liver organoids for modeling genetic diseases. To examine the possibility of using organoids to model steatosis, we established a long-term feline liver organoid culture with adult liver stem cell characteristics and differentiation potential toward hepatocyte-like cells. Next, organoids from mouse, human, dog, and cat liver were provided with fatty acids. Lipid accumulation was observed in all organoids and interestingly, feline liver organoids accumulated more lipid droplets than human organoids. Finally, we demonstrate effects of interference with β-oxidation on lipid accumulation in feline liver organoids. In conclusion, feline liver organoids can be successfully cultured and display a predisposition for lipid accumulation, making them an interesting model in hepatic steatosis research. : In this study Kruitwagen and colleagues establish and characterize a feline liver organoid culture, which has adult stem cell properties and can be differentiated toward hepatocyte-like cells. They propose liver organoids as a tool to model hepatic steatosis and show that feline liver organoids accumulate more lipids than human organoids when provided with excess fatty acids. Keywords: feline liver organoids, adult liver stem cells, hepatic steatosis, disease modeling, feline hepatic lipidosis, species differences

  7. Exploring Long-Term Behavior Patterns in a Book Recommendation System for Reading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Tzu-Chao; Chen, Zhi-Hong; Chan, Tak-Wai

    2017-01-01

    This study explored the behavior of students who used a book recommendation system, specifically the My-Bookstore system, over a five semester period. This study addressed two main research questions, the first being related to "the most frequent behaviors and behavioral patterns." The results showed that "visiting" behavior…

  8. Mesoscale atmospheric modelling technology as a tool for the long-term meteorological dataset development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platonov, Vladimir; Kislov, Alexander; Rivin, Gdaly; Varentsov, Mikhail; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Chumakov, Mikhail

    2017-04-01

    The detailed hydrodynamic modelling of meteorological parameters during the last 30 years (1985 - 2014) was performed for the Okhotsk Sea and the Sakhalin island regions. The regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM used for this long-term simulation with 13.2, 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolutions. The main objective of creation this dataset was the outlook of the investigation of statistical characteristics and the physical mechanisms of extreme weather events (primarily, wind speed extremes) on the small spatio-temporal scales. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the well-known mesoscale COSMO model, including some modifications and extensions adapting to the long-term numerical experiments. The downscaling technique was realized and developed for the long-term simulations with three consequent nesting domains. ERA-Interim reanalysis ( 0.75 degrees resolution) used as global forcing data for the starting domain ( 13.2 km horizontal resolution), then these simulation data used as initial and boundary conditions for the next model runs over the domain with 6.6 km resolution, and similarly, for the next step to 2.2 km domain. Besides, the COSMO-CLM model configuration for 13.2 km run included the spectral nudging technique, i.e. an additional assimilation of reanalysis data not only at boundaries, but also inside the whole domain. Practically, this computational scheme realized on the SGI Altix 4700 supercomputer system in the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet and used 2,400 hours of CPU time total. According to modelling results, the verification of the obtained dataset was performed on the observation data. Estimations showed the mean error -0.5 0C, up to 2 - 3 0C RMSE in temperature, and overestimation in wind speed (RMSE is up to 2 m/s). Overall, analysis showed that the used downscaling technique with applying the COSMO-CLM model reproduced the meteorological conditions, spatial distribution, seasonal and synoptic variability of temperature and

  9. Recent developments in assessment of long-term radionuclide behavior in the geosphere-biosphere subsystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, G M; Smith, K L; Kowe, R; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Thorne, M; Thiry, Y; Read, D; Molinero, J

    2014-05-01

    Decisions on permitting, controlling and monitoring releases of radioactivity into the environment rely on a great variety of factors. Important among these is the prospective assessment of radionuclide behavior in the environment, including migration and accumulation among and within specific environmental media, and the resulting environmental and human health impacts. Models and techniques to undertake such assessments have been developed over several decades based on knowledge of the ecosystems involved, as well as monitoring of previous radionuclide releases to the environment, laboratory experiments and other related research. This paper presents developments in the assessment of radiation doses and related research for some of the key radionuclides identified as of potential significance in the context of releases to the biosphere from disposal facilities for solid radioactive waste. Since releases to the biosphere from disposal facilities involve transfers from the geosphere to the biosphere, an important aspect is the combined effects of surface hydrology, near-surface hydrogeology and chemical gradients on speciation and radionuclide mobility in the zone in which the geosphere and biosphere overlap (herein described as the geosphere-biosphere subsystem). In turn, these aspects of the environment can be modified as a result of environmental change over the thousands of years that have to be considered in radioactive waste disposal safety assessments. Building on the experience from improved understanding of the behavior of the key radionuclides, this paper proceeds to describe development of a generic methodology for representing the processes and environmental changes that are characteristic of the interface between the geosphere and the biosphere. The information that is provided and the methodology that is described are based on international collaborative work implemented through the BIOPROTA forum, www.bioprota.org. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All

  10. Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets: Empirical evidence from Nord Pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a three-factor spike model that accounts for different speeds of mean reversion between normal and spiky shocks in the Scandinavian power market. In this model both short and long-run factors are unobservable and are hence estimated as latent variables using the Kalman filter. The proposed model has several advantages. First, it seems to capture in a parsimonious way the most important risks that practitioners face in the market, such as spike risk, short-term risk and long-term risk. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium observed in the market and improves the fit between theoretical and observed forward prices, particularly for long-dated forward contracts. Finally, closed-form solutions for forward contracts, derived from the model, are consistent with the fact that the correlation between contracts of different maturities is imperfect. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful policy analysis and financial engineering tool to market participants for risk management and derivative pricing particularly for long-dated contracts.

  11. Time-series modeling: applications to long-term finfish monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bireley, L.E.

    1985-01-01

    The growing concern and awareness that developed during the 1970's over the effects that industry had on the environment caused the electric utility industry in particular to develop monitoring programs. These programs generate long-term series of data that are not very amenable to classical normal-theory statistical analysis. The monitoring data collected from three finfish programs (impingement, trawl and seine) at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station were typical of such series and thus were used to develop methodology that used the full extent of the information in the series. The basis of the methodology was classic Box-Jenkins time-series modeling; however, the models also included deterministic components that involved flow, season and time as predictor variables. Time entered into the models as harmonic regression terms. Of the 32 models fitted to finfish catch data, 19 were found to account for more than 70% of the historical variation. The models were than used to forecast finfish catches a year in advance and comparisons were made to actual data. Usually the confidence intervals associated with the forecasts encompassed most of the observed data. The technique can provide the basis for intervention analysis in future impact assessments

  12. Long-term changes in neurocognition and behavior following treatment of sleep disordered breathing in school-aged children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggs, Sarah N; Vlahandonis, Anna; Anderson, Vicki; Bourke, Robert; Nixon, Gillian M; Davey, Margot J; Horne, Rosemary S C

    2014-01-01

    Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in children is associated with detrimental neurocognitive and behavioral consequences. The long term impact of treatment on these outcomes is unknown. This study examined the long-term effect of treatment of SDB on neurocognition, academic ability, and behavior in a cohort of school-aged children. Four-year longitudinal study. Children originally diagnosed with SDB and healthy non-snoring controls underwent repeat polysomnography and age-standardized neurocognitive and behavioral assessment 4y following initial testing. Melbourne Children's Sleep Centre, Melbourne, Australia. Children 12-16 years of age, originally assessed at 7-12 years, were categorized into Treated (N = 12), Untreated (N = 26), and Control (N = 18) groups. Adenotonsillectomy, Tonsillectomy, Nasal Steroids. Decision to treat was independent of this study. Changes in sleep and respiratory parameters over time were assessed. A decrease in obstructive apnea hypopnea index (OAHI) from Time 1 to Time 2 was seen in 63% and 100% of the Untreated and Treated groups, respectively. The predictive relationship between change in OAHI and standardized neurocognitive, academic, and behavioral scores over time was examined. Improvements in OAHI were predictive of improvements in Performance IQ, but not Verbal IQ or academic measures. Initial group differences in behavioral assessment on the Child Behavior Checklist did not change over time. Children with SDB at baseline continued to exhibit significantly poorer behavior than Controls at follow-up, irrespective of treatment. After four years, improvements in SDB are concomitant with improvements in some areas of neurocognition, but not academic ability or behavior in school-aged children.

  13. Using Probablilistic Risk Assessment to Model Medication System Failures in Long-Term Care Facilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Comden, Sharon C; Marx, David; Murphy-Carley, Margaret; Hale, Misti

    2005-01-01

    .... Discussion: The models provide contextual maps of the errors and behaviors that lead to medication delivery system failures, including unanticipated risks associated with regulatory practices and common...

  14. Synthesis on the long term behavior of spent nuclear fuel. Vol.1,2; Synthese sur l'evolution a long terme des colis de combustibles irradies. Tome 1,2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poinssot, Ch.; Toulhoat, P.; Grouiller, J.P.; Pavageau, J.; Piron, J.P.; Pelletier, M.; Dehaudt, Ph.; Cappelaere, Ch.; Limon, R.; Desgranges, L.; Jegou, Ch.; Corbel, C.; Maillard, S.; Faure, M.H.; Cicariello, J.C.; Masson, M. [CEA Saclay, DEN/DDIN/DPRGD, 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France)

    2001-07-01

    The aim of this report is to present the major objectives, the key scientific issues, and the preliminary results of the research conducted in France in the framework of the third line of the 1991 Law, on the topic of the long term behavior of spent nuclear fuel in view of long term storage or geological disposal. Indeed, CEA launched in 1998 the Research Program on the Long Term Behavior of Spent Nuclear Fuel (abbreviated and referred to as PRECCI in French; Poinssot, 1998) the aim of which is to study and assess the ability of spent nuclear fuel packages to keep their initially allocated functions in interim storage and geological disposal: total containment and recovery functions for duration up to hundreds of years (long term or short-term interim storage and/or first reversible stages of geological disposal) and partial confinement function (controlled fluxes of RN) for thousands of years in geological disposal. This program has to allow to obtain relevant and reliable data concerning the long term behavior of the spent fuel packages so that feasibility of interim storage and/or geological disposal can be assessed and demonstrated as well as optimized. Within this framework, this report presents for every possible scenario of evolution (closed system, in Presence of water in presence of gases) what are estimated to be the most relevant evolution mechanism. For the most relevant scientific issues hence defined, a complete scientific review of the best state of knowledge is subsequently here given thus allowing to draw a clear guideline of the major R and D issues for the next years. (authors)

  15. Modeling studies of unsaturated flow with long-term permeability change at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Chengyuan; Liu Xiaoyan; Liu Quansheng

    2008-01-01

    The amount of water seeping into the waste emplacement drifts is crucial for the performance of underground nuclear waste repository, since it controls the corrosion rates of waste packages and the mobilization rate of radionuclides. It is limited by water flow through drift vicinity. In the present work we study the potential rates of water flow around drifts as a function of predicted long-term change of permeability at Yucca Mountain, based on a dual-continuum model of the unsaturated flow in fractured rock mass. For stage of DECOVALEX Ⅳ, we used a simplified practical model on unsaturated flow in Yucca Mountain case simulation. These models contain main physical processes that should be considered, including thermal expansion, thermal radiation, water-rock coupling and stress-induced change of permeability. Comparative study with other DECOVALEX team's results shows that they are both good enough and flexible enough to include more physical processes. We can draw the conclusion that it is necessary to model stress-induced changes in permeability and relative processes in future studies, because there are obvious differences (in water saturation and water flux) between simulation cases with and without variable permeability, especially in areas very close to the drift. (authors)

  16. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  17. Long-Term Adult Feline Liver Organoid Cultures for Disease Modeling of Hepatic Steatosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruitwagen, Hedwig S; Oosterhoff, Loes A; Vernooij, Ingrid G W H; Schrall, Ingrid M; van Wolferen, Monique E; Bannink, Farah; Roesch, Camille; van Uden, Lisa; Molenaar, Martijn R; Helms, J Bernd; Grinwis, Guy C M; Verstegen, Monique M A; van der Laan, Luc J W; Huch, Meritxell; Geijsen, Niels; Vries, Robert G; Clevers, Hans; Rothuizen, Jan; Schotanus, Baukje A; Penning, Louis C; Spee, Bart

    2017-04-11

    Hepatic steatosis is a highly prevalent liver disease, yet research is hampered by the lack of tractable cellular and animal models. Steatosis also occurs in cats, where it can cause severe hepatic failure. Previous studies demonstrate the potential of liver organoids for modeling genetic diseases. To examine the possibility of using organoids to model steatosis, we established a long-term feline liver organoid culture with adult liver stem cell characteristics and differentiation potential toward hepatocyte-like cells. Next, organoids from mouse, human, dog, and cat liver were provided with fatty acids. Lipid accumulation was observed in all organoids and interestingly, feline liver organoids accumulated more lipid droplets than human organoids. Finally, we demonstrate effects of interference with β-oxidation on lipid accumulation in feline liver organoids. In conclusion, feline liver organoids can be successfully cultured and display a predisposition for lipid accumulation, making them an interesting model in hepatic steatosis research. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Improving an Integer Linear Programming Model of an Ecovat Buffer by Adding Long-Term Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gijs J. H. de Goeijen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Ecovat is a seasonal thermal storage solution consisting of a large underground water tank divided into a number of virtual segments that can be individually charged and discharged. The goal of the Ecovat is to supply heat demand to a neighborhood throughout the entire year. In this work, we extend an integer linear programming model to describe the charging and discharging of such an Ecovat buffer by adding a long-term (yearly planning step to the model. We compare the results from the model using this extension to previously obtained results and show significant improvements when looking at the combination of costs and the energy content of the buffer at the end of the optimization. Furthermore, we show that the model is very robust against prediction errors. For this, we compare two different cases: one case in which we assume perfect predictions are available and one case in which we assume no predictions are available. The largest observed difference in costs between these two cases is less than 2%.

  19. Long-term electrical resistivity monitoring of recharge-induced contaminant plume behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasperikova, Erika; Hubbard, Susan S; Watson, David B; Baker, Gregory S; Peterson, John E; Kowalsky, Michael B; Smith, Meagan; Brooks, Scott

    2012-11-01

    Geophysical measurements, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in particular, are sensitive to properties that are related (directly or indirectly) to hydrological processes. The challenge is in extracting information from geophysical data at a relevant scale that can be used to gain insight about subsurface behavior and to parameterize or validate flow and transport models. Here, we consider the use of ERT data for examining the impact of recharge on subsurface contamination at the S-3 ponds of the Oak Ridge Integrated Field Research Challenge (IFRC) site in Tennessee. A large dataset of time-lapse cross-well and surface ERT data, collected at the site over a period of 12 months, is used to study time variations in resistivity due to changes in total dissolved solids (primarily nitrate). The electrical resistivity distributions recovered from cross-well and surface ERT data agrees well, and both of these datasets can be used to interpret spatiotemporal variations in subsurface nitrate concentrations due to rainfall, although the sensitivity of the electrical resistivity response to dilution varies with nitrate concentration. Using the time-lapse surface ERT data interpreted in terms of nitrate concentrations, we find that the subsurface nitrate concentration at this site varies as a function of spatial position, episodic heavy rainstorms (versus seasonal and annual fluctuations), and antecedent rainfall history. These results suggest that the surface ERT monitoring approach is potentially useful for examining subsurface plume responses to recharge over field-relevant scales. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. A 3D Lumped Thermal Network Model for Long-term Load Profiles Analysis in High Power IGBT Modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Ma, Ke; Ghimire, Pramod

    2016-01-01

    )-based simulation is another method which is often used to analyze the steady-state thermal distribution of IGBT modules, but it is not possible to be used for long-term analysis of load profiles of power converter, which is needed for reliability assessments and better thermal design. This paper proposes a novel...... enables both accurate and fast temperature estimation of high power IGBT modules in the real loading conditions of the converter; meanwhile the critical details of the thermal dynamics and thermal distribution are also maintained. The proposed thermal model is verified by both FEM simulation......The conventional RC lumped thermal networks are widely used to estimate the temperature of power devices, but they are lack of accuracy in addressing detailed thermal behaviors/couplings in different locations and layers of the high power IGBT modules. On the other hand, Finite Element (FE...

  1. Recent developments in assessment of long-term radionuclide behavior in the geosphere-biosphere subsystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, G.M.; Smith, K.L.; Kowe, R.; Pérez-Sánchez, D.; Thorne, M.; Thiry, Y.; Read, D.; Molinero, J.

    2014-01-01

    Decisions on permitting, controlling and monitoring releases of radioactivity into the environment rely on a great variety of factors. Important among these is the prospective assessment of radionuclide behavior in the environment, including migration and accumulation among and within specific environmental media, and the resulting environmental and human health impacts. Models and techniques to undertake such assessments have been developed over several decades based on knowledge of the ecosystems involved, as well as monitoring of previous radionuclide releases to the environment, laboratory experiments and other related research. This paper presents developments in the assessment of radiation doses and related research for some of the key radionuclides identified as of potential significance in the context of releases to the biosphere from disposal facilities for solid radioactive waste. Since releases to the biosphere from disposal facilities involve transfers from the geosphere to the biosphere, an important aspect is the combined effects of surface hydrology, near-surface hydrogeology and chemical gradients on speciation and radionuclide mobility in the zone in which the geosphere and biosphere overlap (herein described as the geosphere-biosphere subsystem). In turn, these aspects of the environment can be modified as a result of environmental change over the thousands of years that have to be considered in radioactive waste disposal safety assessments. Building on the experience from improved understanding of the behavior of the key radionuclides, this paper proceeds to describe development of a generic methodology for representing the processes and environmental changes that are characteristic of the interface between the geosphere and the biosphere. The information that is provided and the methodology that is described are based on international collaborative work implemented through the BIOPROTA forum, (www.bioprota.org). - Highlights: • Geological

  2. Maternal Behavior Modifications during Pretense and Their Long-Term Effects on Toddlers' Understanding of Pretense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamichi, Naoko

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies indicate the need to investigate the sources of toddlers' understanding of another person's pretense. The present study is a cultural and longitudinal extension of the work of Lillard and Witherington (2004), who claimed that mothers modify their behaviors during pretense and that the some of these behavior modifications help their…

  3. The Future Demand for Long-term Carers in Germany: Model Calculations for the Federal Länder until 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Pohl

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The increase in the birth rate shortfall, at the same time as an increase in life expectancy, will lead to more elderly people living in Germany in future, in both relative and absolute terms. The possible development in the demand for professional long-term carers until 2020 for the individual Federal Länder is illustrated in this essay using model calculations. Because of the differences in demographic change between the Federal Länder, the labour market for long-term care will develop heterogeneously in the federal territory as a whole. The increase in the number of persons in need of long-term care from its current level of 2.25 million to a forecast level of 2.9 million by 2020 will mean that professional long-term care in particular will continue to become more significant in Germany as a whole. The demand for long-term carers (in full-time equivalent posts could increase from its current level of 561,000 to up to 900,000 by 2020. The actual development on the professional labour market will however be heavily dependent on the commitment of care-giving relatives. Additionally, possible productivity advances in the provision of long-term care services will play a role, as can be shown in various scenarios of the model calculations.

  4. A modeling framework for optimal long-term care insurance purchase decisions in retirement planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Aparna; Li, Lepeng

    2004-05-01

    The level of need and costs of obtaining long-term care (LTC) during retired life require that planning for it is an integral part of retirement planning. In this paper, we divide retirement planning into two phases, pre-retirement and post-retirement. On the basis of four interrelated models for health evolution, wealth evolution, LTC insurance premium and coverage, and LTC cost structure, a framework for optimal LTC insurance purchase decisions in the pre-retirement phase is developed. Optimal decisions are obtained by developing a trade-off between post-retirement LTC costs and LTC insurance premiums and coverage. Two-way branching models are used to model stochastic health events and asset returns. The resulting optimization problem is formulated as a dynamic programming problem. We compare the optimal decision under two insurance purchase scenarios: one assumes that insurance is purchased for good and other assumes it may be purchased, relinquished and re-purchased. Sensitivity analysis is performed for the retirement age.

  5. Models of Disease Vector Control: When Can Aggressive Initial Intervention Lower Long-Term Cost?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oduro, Bismark; Grijalva, Mario J; Just, Winfried

    2018-04-01

    Insecticide spraying of housing units is an important control measure for vector-borne infections such as Chagas disease. As vectors may invade both from other infested houses and sylvatic areas and as the effectiveness of insecticide wears off over time, the dynamics of (re)infestations can be approximated by [Formula: see text]-type models with a reservoir, where housing units are treated as hosts, and insecticide spraying corresponds to removal of hosts. Here, we investigate three ODE-based models of this type. We describe a dual-rate effect where an initially very high spraying rate can push the system into a region of the state space with low endemic levels of infestation that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate cost, while in the absence of an aggressive initial intervention the same average cost would only allow a much less significant reduction in long-term infestation levels. We determine some sufficient and some necessary conditions under which this effect occurs and show that it is robust in models that incorporate some heterogeneity in the relevant properties of housing units.

  6. Examining a "Household" Model of Residential Long-term Care in Nova Scotia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janice Keefe

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In 2006, Nova Scotia began to implement its Continuing Care Strategy which was grounded in a vision of providing client-centered care for continuing care clients, including residents of nursing homes. Considerable evidence pointed to the benefits of the “household” model of care—which led the province to adopt the smaller self-contained household model as a requirement for owners/operators seeking to build government-funded new and replacement nursing homes. The specific goals of the reform (the adoption of the household model included increasing the proportion of single rooms, improving the home-likeness of the facility, and more generally, providing high-quality care services. The reform was influenced by recognition of the need for change, rapid population aging in the province, and strong political will at a time when fiscal resources were available. To achieve the reform, Nova Scotia Department of Health released two key documents (2007 to guide the design and operation of all new and replacement facilities procured using a request for proposal process: The Long Term Care Program Requirements and the Space and Design Requirements. Results from a research study examining resident quality of life suggest regardless of physical design or staffing approach high resident quality of life can be experienced, while at the same time recognizing that the facilities with “self-contained household” design and expanded care staff roles were uniquely supporting relationships and home-likeness and positively impacting resident quality of life.

  7. Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monnet, A.; Gabriel, S.; Percebois, J.

    2016-01-01

    Most recent studies on the long-term supply of uranium make simplistic assumptions on the available resources and their production costs. Some consider the whole uranium quantities in the Earth's crust and then estimate the production costs based on the ore grade only, disregarding the size of ore bodies and the mining techniques. Other studies consider the resources reported by countries for a given cost category, disregarding undiscovered or unreported quantities. In both cases, the resource estimations are sorted following a cost merit order. In this paper, we describe a methodology based on 'geological environments'. It provides a more detailed resource estimation and it is more flexible regarding cost modelling. The global uranium resource estimation introduced in this paper results from the sum of independent resource estimations from different geological environments. A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance), and cost function. With this definition, uranium resources are considered within ore bodies. The deposit breakdown of resources is modelled using a bivariate statistical approach where size and grade are the two random variables. This makes resource estimates possible for individual projects. Adding up all geological environments provides a distribution of all Earth's crust resources in which ore bodies are sorted by size and grade. This subset-based estimation is convenient to model specific cost structures. (authors)

  8. Long-term consequences of a prolonged febrile seizure in a dual pathology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Steve; Chattopadhyaya, Bidisha; Desgent, Sébastien; Awad, Patricia N; Clerk-Lamalice, Olivier; Levesque, Maxime; Vianna, Rose-Mari; Rébillard, Rose-Marie; Delsemme, Andrée-Anne; Hébert, David; Tremblay, Luc; Lepage, Martin; Descarries, Laurent; Di Cristo, Graziella; Carmant, Lionel

    2011-08-01

    Clinical evidence suggests that febrile status epilepticus (SE) in children can lead to acute hippocampal injury and subsequent temporal lobe epilepsy. The contribution of febrile SE to the mechanisms underlying temporal lobe epilepsy are however poorly understood. A rat model of temporal lobe epilepsy following hyperthermic SE was previously established in our laboratory, wherein a focal cortical lesion induced at postnatal day 1 (P1), followed by a hyperthermic SE (more than 30 min) at P10, leads to hippocampal atrophy at P22 (dual pathology model) and spontaneous recurrent seizures (SRS) with mild visuospatial memory deficits in adult rats. The goal of this study was to identify the long term electrophysiological, anatomical and molecular changes in this model. Following hyperthermic SE, all cortically lesioned pups developed progressive SRS as adults, characterized by the onset of highly rhythmic activity in the hippocampus. A reduction of hippocampal volume on the side of the lesion preceded the SRS and was associated with a loss of hippocampal neurons, a marked decrease in pyramidal cell spine density, an increase in the hippocampal levels of NMDA receptor NR2A subunit, but no significant change in GABA receptors. These findings suggest that febrile SE in the abnormal brain leads to hippocampal injury that is followed by progressive network reorganization and molecular changes that contribute to the epileptogenesis as well as the observed memory deficits. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Congestion management in power systems. Long-term modeling framework and large-scale application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertsch, Joachim; Hagspiel, Simeon; Just, Lisa

    2015-06-15

    In liberalized power systems, generation and transmission services are unbundled, but remain tightly interlinked. Congestion management in the transmission network is of crucial importance for the efficiency of these inter-linkages. Different regulatory designs have been suggested, analyzed and followed, such as uniform zonal pricing with redispatch or nodal pricing. However, the literature has either focused on the short-term efficiency of congestion management or specific issues of timing investments. In contrast, this paper presents a generalized and flexible economic modeling framework based on a decomposed inter-temporal equilibrium model including generation, transmission, as well as their inter-linkages. Short and long-term effects of different congestion management designs can hence be analyzed. Specifically, we are able to identify and isolate implicit frictions and sources of inefficiencies in the different regulatory designs, and to provide a comparative analysis including a benchmark against a first-best welfare-optimal result. To demonstrate the applicability of our framework, we calibrate and numerically solve our model for a detailed representation of the Central Western European (CWE) region, consisting of 70 nodes and 174 power lines. Analyzing six different congestion management designs until 2030, we show that compared to the first-best benchmark, i.e., nodal pricing, inefficiencies of up to 4.6% arise. Inefficiencies are mainly driven by the approach of determining cross-border capacities as well as the coordination of transmission system operators' activities.

  10. The more you play, the more aggressive you become: A long-term experimental study of cumulative violent video game effects on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasan, Y.; Bègue, L.; Scharkow, M.; Bushman, B.J.

    2012-01-01

    It is well established that violent video games increase aggression. There is a stronger evidence of short-term violent video game effects than of long-term effects. The present experiment tests the cumulative long-term effects of violent video games on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior

  11. Informing the Long-Term Learner Model: Motivating the Adult Learner (Phase 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-28

    memory systems: 1) short - term memory , 2) working memory , and 3) long - term memory . The short - term memory stores the information for brief periods of...and the episodic buffer, which is linked to long - term memory . The visual working memory shares parts and interacts with attention (Gazzaley and...Nobre 2012; Zanto et al. 2011). Short - term memory is limited in its importance to

  12. An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Aziz Ur Rehman; Yanpeng Cai; Rizwan Fazal; Gordhan Das Walasai; Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2017-01-01

    Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fo...

  13. Long-term medical costs and life expectancy of acute myeloid leukemia: a probabilistic decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Han-I; Aas, Eline; Howell, Debra; Roman, Eve; Patmore, Russell; Jack, Andrew; Smith, Alexandra

    2014-03-01

    Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) can be diagnosed at any age and treatment, which can be given with supportive and/or curative intent, is considered expensive compared with that for other cancers. Despite this, no long-term predictive models have been developed for AML, mainly because of the complexities associated with this disease. The objective of the current study was to develop a model (based on a UK cohort) to predict cost and life expectancy at a population level. The model developed in this study combined a decision tree with several Markov models to reflect the complexity of the prognostic factors and treatments of AML. The model was simulated with a cycle length of 1 month for a time period of 5 years and further simulated until age 100 years or death. Results were compared for two age groups and five different initial treatment intents and responses. Transition probabilities, life expectancies, and costs were derived from a UK population-based specialist registry-the Haematological Malignancy Research Network (www.hmrn.org). Overall, expected 5-year medical costs and life expectancy ranged from £8,170 to £81,636 and 3.03 to 34.74 months, respectively. The economic and health outcomes varied with initial treatment intent, age at diagnosis, trial participation, and study time horizon. The model was validated by using face, internal, and external validation methods. The results show that the model captured more than 90% of the empirical costs, and it demonstrated good fit with the empirical overall survival. Costs and life expectancy of AML varied with patient characteristics and initial treatment intent. The robust AML model developed in this study could be used to evaluate new diagnostic tools/treatments, as well as enable policy makers to make informed decisions. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Long Term Effectiveness of Cognitive Behavioral Group Therapy for Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceren Gokdag

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to conduct systematic review the articles on long term effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral group therapy for treatment of major depressive disorder. Articles in English and Turkish published between the years of 2000 and 2015 (January were searched in national and international databases. The articles that did not include follow-up studies were excluded. Although the main aim of this study is to evaluate permanent effect of the cognitive behavioral group therapy, 21 articles that met the criteria were examined also in terms of some other variables such as research method, therapy characteristics and post test results. The findings of the articles revealed that cognitive-behavioral group therapy is effective for major depressive disorder and post therapy gains are maintained for a long time. [Psikiyatride Guncel Yaklasimlar - Current Approaches in Psychiatry 2016; 8(Supplement 1: 23-38

  15. Long-term modelling for estimation of man-induced environmental risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahura, A.; Baklanov, A.; Sorensen, J.H.; Tridvornov, A.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: As a part of the EU coordination action project ENVIRO-RISKS the long-term regional and transboundary atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of atmospheric pollutants is investigated. Focus is on pollutants originating at nuclear and chemical risk sites of the NIS countries. Potential sources of atmospheric pollution include chemical and metallurgical enterprises and smelters, former testing polygons of nuclear weapons, and nuclear plants and facilities. These are situated within territories of Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Russia (the Siberian, Ural, Krasnoyarsk, and Kola regions). The atmospheric pollutants considered are radionuclides such as Cs-137, I-131, and Sr-90 as well as sulphates and heavy metals. The Danish Emergency Model for Atmosphere (DERMA) is employed for simulations using 3D meteorological fields from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The modeled concentration and deposition fields of atmospheric pollutants are used as input into further collaborative studies to estimate the man-induced environmental risks from regionally and remotely located potential sources with a focus on Siberian territories. The temporal and spatial variability of these fields and the probabilities and contribution of removal during atmospheric transport are evaluated. Possible approaches for further GIS integration and use of obtained results are discussed with respect to estimation of man-received doses and risks, impact on environment with a focus on forests, applicability for integrated systems for regional environmental monitoring and management, and others. (author)

  16. Enhanced long term microcircuit plasticity in the valproic acid animal model of autism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme T Silva

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A single intra-peritoneal injection of valproic acid (VPA on embryonic day (ED 11.5 to pregnant rats has been shown to produce severe autistic-like symptoms in the offspring. Previous studies showed that the microcircuitry is hyperreactive due to hyperconnectivity of glutamatergic synapses and hyperplastic due to over-expression of NMDA receptors. These changes were restricted to the dimensions of a mini-column (<50μm. In the present study, we explored whether Long Term Microcircuit Plasticity (LTMP was altered in this animal model. We performed multi-neuron patch-clamp recordings on clusters of layer V pyramidal cells in somatosensory cortex brain slices (PN 12-15, mapped the connectivity and characterized the synaptic properties for connected neurons. Pipettes were then withdrawn and the slice was perfused with 100μM sodium glutamate in artificial cerebrospinal fluid in the recording chamber for 12 h. When we re-patched the same cluster of neurons, we found enhanced LTMP only at inter-somatic distances beyond minicolumnar dimensions. These data suggest that hyperconnectivity is already near its peak within the dimensions of the minicolumn in the treated animals and that LTMP, which is normally restricted to within a minicolumn, spills over to drive hyperconnectivity across the dimensions of a minicolumn. This study provides further evidence to support the notion that the neocortex is highly plastic in response to new experiences in this animal model of autism.

  17. Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Olsen, Are; Heinze, Christoph; Bopp, Laurent; Roy, Tilla

    2014-01-01

    We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO 2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO 2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake, while ocean pCO 2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake. Aside from the western sub-polar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO 2 trends is found when the simulated fields are sub sampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO 2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO 2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970-2011) period, the simulated regional pCO 2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO 2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO 2 growth rates are projected for the sub-polar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO 2 growth rate. Our work

  18. Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry F. Tjiputra

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011 period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work

  19. Island-Model Genomic Selection for Long-Term Genetic Improvement of Autogamous Crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yabe, Shiori; Yamasaki, Masanori; Ebana, Kaworu; Hayashi, Takeshi; Iwata, Hiroyoshi

    2016-01-01

    selection in autogamous crops, especially bringing long-term improvement.

  20. Island-Model Genomic Selection for Long-Term Genetic Improvement of Autogamous Crops.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiori Yabe

    potential of genomic selection in autogamous crops, especially bringing long-term improvement.

  1. Long-term occlusal changes assessed by the American Board of Orthodontics' model grading system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aszkler, Robert M; Preston, Charles B; Saltaji, Humam; Tabbaa, Sawsan

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the long-term posttreatment changes in all criteria of the American Board of Orthodontics' (ABO) model grading system. We used plaster models from patients' final and posttreatment records. Thirty patients treated by 1 orthodontist using 1 bracket prescription were selected. An initial discrepancy index for each subject was performed to determine the complexity of each case. The final models were then graded using the ABO's model grading system immediately at posttreatment and postretention. Statistical analysis was performed on the 8 criteria of the model grading system, including paired t tests and Pearson correlations. An alpha of 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The average length of time between the posttreatment and postretention records was 12.7 ± 4.4 years. It was shown that alignment and rotations worsened by postretention (P = 0.014), and a weak statistically significant correlation at posttreatment and postretention was found (0.44; P = 0.016). Both marginal ridges and occlusal contacts scored less well at posttreatment. These criteria showed a significant decrease in scores between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), but the correlations were not statistically significant. The average total score showed a significant decrease between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), partly because of the large decrease in the previous 2 criteria. Higher scores for occlusal contacts and marginal ridges were found at the end of treatment; however, those scores and the overall scores for the 30 subjects improved in the postretention phase. Copyright © 2014. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  2. Implementation of the long term stewardship model of decommissioning power reactors. Update on the Zion project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christian, J.; Hess, J.; Moloney, B.P. [EnergySolutions EU, Swindon (United Kingdom)

    2012-11-01

    Several countries have announced programmes to phase out nuclear power. Many NPPs built in the 1960s-80s are in any case reaching the end of their planned operating lives. Over the next decade, approximately 60-80 reactors worldwide will reach end of useful life and become candidates for decontamination and dismantling (D and D). Utilities will therefore commission over the coming decade a much larger number of decommissioning programmes to discharge their license responsibilities for reactor dismantling and site remediation. One major strategic question for the utilities is whether they regard decommissioning reactors as part of their core business or whether they wish to transfer this burden and risk in part or in whole to a specialised contractor. This paper reviews progress at the first programme in the US where a non-utility company has taken on the full license responsibility from the utility to undertake site remediation and license termination. We call this model ''Long Term Stewardship'' and it is now fully underway at the Zion NPP near Chicago, Illinois. (orig.)

  3. Current Understanding and Remaining Challenges in Modeling Long-Term Degradation of Borosilicate Nuclear Waste Glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vienna, John D.; Ryan, Joseph V.; Gin, Stephane; Inagaki, Yaohiro

    2013-01-01

    Chemical durability is not a single material property that can be uniquely measured. Instead it is the response to a host of coupled material and environmental processes whose rates are estimated by a combination of theory, experiment, and modeling. High-level nuclear waste (HLW) glass is perhaps the most studied of any material yet there remain significant technical gaps regarding their chemical durability. The phenomena affecting the long-term performance of HLW glasses in their disposal environment include surface reactions, transport properties to and from the reacting glass surface, and ion exchange between the solid glass and the surrounding solution and alteration products. The rates of these processes are strongly influenced and are coupled through the solution chemistry, which is in turn influenced by the reacting glass and also by reaction with the near-field materials and precipitation of alteration products. Therefore, those processes must be understood sufficiently well to estimate or bound the performance of HLW glass in its disposal environment over geologic time-scales. This article summarizes the current state of understanding of surface reactions, transport properties, and ion exchange along with the near-field materials and alteration products influences on solution chemistry and glass reaction rates. Also summarized are the remaining technical gaps along with recommended approaches to fill those technical gaps

  4. Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

    2017-04-01

    Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

  5. The Impact of Long-Term Dental Health Education on Oral Hygiene Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houle, Bonnie A.

    1982-01-01

    A study evaluated the impact of five years' exposure to a dental health curriculum on the oral hygiene of fifth-grade students. Findings of the study indicate that a well-designed dental health curriculum based on cognitive and behavioral objectives can result in a greater accumulation of dental health knowledge. (JN)

  6. Improvement in reliability of the long-term mechanical behavior of buffer material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaji, Kazuhiko; Shigeno, Yoshimasa; Shimogouchi, Takafumi; Hirai, Takashi; Shiratake, Toshikazu

    2005-02-01

    On the R and D of the HLW repository, it is essential that Engineered Barrier System (EBS) is stable mechanically over a long period of time for maintaining each ability required to EBS. After closing the repository, the various external forces will be affected to the buffer intricately for a long period of time. So, evaluation of mechanical behavior of the buffer is important to carry out safety assessment of EBS. In this report, the effects of mechanical behavior of the buffer to its safety performance are examined. As a result, the ability to filtrate colloids and the ability to keep diffusion-dominated environment are maintained for 100,000 years. Natural analogue of bentonite ore is also done to corroborate viscous parameter of the buffer. The results shows that the laboratory test data is reasonable compared with the analogized viscous parameters of the 15M years aged ore. Next, the mechanical parameters of the buffer under brine environment are examined. Then the mechanical behavior of the buffer is analyzed. Throughout these processes, the scheme for freshwater environment is confirmed to be valid under brine environment. At the last, the EBS field-test that is planned at Horonobe underground laboratory is analyzed. The analysis is encountered viscous behavior of the buffer and the surrounding rock under corrosion expansion of the overpack. The result offers the mechanical data to design the field test. (author)

  7. The Hidden Cost of Tourism: Detecting Long-term Effects of Tourism Using Behavioral Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Lusseau

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increasingly, whales and dolphins are the focus of tourism activities in many coastal locations. Although these activities can affect individuals and populations of cetaceans, the biological significance and hence the cost of these impacts are as yet largely unknown. This study assessed the effects of boat interactions on the behavioral budget of two populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tersiops truncatus living in similar fjords but exposed to different levels of tourism activities. This comparison makes it possible to assess the costs of short-term avoidance strategies and the threshold at which those strategies are no longer effective. The effects of boat interactions were the same in both fjords. The resting state was the most sensitive to interactions; socializing was less sensitive. Short-term displacement was a typical response to boat exposure: dolphins were more likely to travel after an interaction with a vessel. Although the behavioral budgets of these populations were significantly altered during interactions with boats, their overall behavioral budgets were unchanged. Dolphins in Milford Sound actively avoided boat interactions, possibly to maintain their overall behavioral budget unchanged. This active avoidance led to avoidance of the area. Characteristics of dolphin-boat interactions in Milford Sound suggest that the advantages gained by short-term avoidance are lost if, on average, fewer than 68 min elapse between successive interactions with boats. If dolphin-boat interactions were more frequent than this, the dolphins switched to a longer-term response: area avoidance.

  8. Modeling coupled thermal, flow, transport and geochemical processes controlling near field long-term evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, W.; Arthur, R.; Xu, T.; Pruess, K.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Bentonite is planned for use as a buffer material in the Swedish nuclear waste disposal concept (KBS-3). Upon emplacement, the buffer is expected to experience a complex set of coupled processes involving heating, re-saturation, reaction and transport of groundwater imbibed from the host rock. The effect of these processes may eventually lead to changes in desirable physical and rheological properties of the buffer, but these processes are not well understood. In this paper, a new quantitative model is evaluated to help improve our understanding of the long-term performance of buffer materials. This is an extension of a previous study [1] that involved simple thermal and chemical models applied to a fully saturated buffer. The thermal model in the present study uses heating histories for spent fuel in a single waste package [2]. The model uses repository dimensions, such as borehole and tunnel spacings [2], which affect the temperature distribution around the waste package. At the time of emplacement, bentonite is partially saturated with water having a different composition than the host-rock groundwater. The present model simulates water imbibition from the host rock into the bentonite under capillary and hydraulic pressure gradients. The associated chemical reactions and solute transport are simulated using Aespoe water composition [3]. The initial mineralogy of bentonite is assumed to be dominated by Na-smectite with much smaller amounts of anhydrite and calcite. Na-smectite dissolution is assumed to be kinetically-controlled while all other reactions are assumed to be at equilibrium controlled. All equilibrium and kinetic constants are temperature dependent. The modeling tool used is TOUGHREACT, developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [4]. TOUGHREACT is a numerical model that is well suited for near-field simulations because it accounts for feedback between porosity and permeability changes from mineral

  9. An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rublee Dale

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of the cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitor celecoxib (Celebrex, Pfizer Inc, USA have produced conflicting results. The recent controversy over the cardiovascular (CV risks of rofecoxib and other coxibs has renewed interest in the economic profile of celecoxib, the only coxib now available in the United States. The objective of our study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of celecoxib compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old osteoarthritis (OA patients with average risks of upper gastrointestinal (UGI complications who require chronic daily NSAID therapy. Methods We used decision analysis based on data from the literature to evaluate cost-effectiveness from a modified societal perspective over patients' lifetimes, with outcomes expressed as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY gained. Sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate the impacts of advancing age, CV thromboembolic event risk, different analytic horizons and alternate treatment strategies after UGI adverse events. Results Our main findings were: 1 the base model incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER for celecoxib versus nsNSAIDs was $31,097 per QALY; 2 the ICER per QALY was $19,309 for a model in which UGI ulcer and ulcer complication event risks increased with advancing age; 3 the ICER per QALY was $17,120 in sensitivity analyses combining serious CV thromboembolic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, CV death risks with base model assumptions. Conclusion Our model suggests that chronic celecoxib is cost-effective versus nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old OA patients with average risks of UGI events.

  10. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2018-01-01

    LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

  11. Modeling Cd and Cu mobility in soils amended by long-term urban waste compost applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipović, Vilim; Cambier, Philippe; Matijević, Lana; Coquet, Yves; Pot, Valérie; Houot, Sabine; Benoit, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    Urban waste compost application to soil is an effective way for organic waste disposal and at the same time may have a positive effect on various soil rhizosphere processes. However, long term applications of organic waste amendments may lead to a noteworthy accumulation of micropollutants in soil. The long-term field experiment QualiAgro, an INRA-Veolia partnership (https://www6.inra.fr/qualiagro_eng/), has been conducted since 1998 with the objectives to characterize the agronomic value of urban composts and the environmental impacts of their application. Numerical modeling was performed using HYDRUS-2D to estimate the movement of Cd and Cu from compost incroporation in the tilled layer. Experimental plots regularly amended with co-compost of sewage sludge and green wastes (SGW), or a municipal solid waste compost (MSW) have been compared to control plot without any organic amendment (CONT). Field site was equipped with wicks lysimeters, TDR probes and tensiometers in order to determine water balance and trace metal concentrations during a 6 years' time period (2004-2010). In the tilled layer different structures (Δ - compacted clods, Γ - macroporous zone, IF - interfurrows, PP - plough pan) corresponding to the tillage and compost incorporation were delimited and reproduced in a 2-D model. The increase of Cd and Cu concentrations due to each compost addition was assumed to be located in IFs for further modeling. Four compost additions were performed during 2004-2010 period which increased the Cd and Cu concentrations in the IF zones considerably. After successful model description of water flow in highly heterogeneous soil profiles, Cd and Cu were added into the model and their fate was simulated during the same time period. Two approaches were followed to estimate plausible trace metals sorption coefficients (Kd), both while assuming equilibrium between dissolved and EDTA-extractable metals. The first approach was based on Kd estimated from ratios between

  12. Arm injury produces long-term behavioral and neural hypersensitivity in octopus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alupay, Jean S; Hadjisolomou, Stavros P; Crook, Robyn J

    2014-01-13

    Cephalopod molluscs are the most neurally and behaviorally complex invertebrates, with brains rivaling those of some vertebrates in size and complexity. This has fostered the opinion that cephalopods, particularly octopuses, may experience vertebrate-like pain when injured. However, it is not known whether octopuses possess nociceptors or if their somatic sensory neurons exhibit sensitization after injury. Here we show that the octopus Abdopus aculeatus expresses nocifensive behaviors including arm autotomy, and displays marked neural hyperexcitability both in injured and uninjured arms for at least 24h after injury. These findings do not demonstrate that octopuses experience pain-like states; instead they add to the minimal existing literature on how cephalopods receive, process, and integrate noxious sensory information, potentially informing and refining regulations governing use of cephalopods in scientific research. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  13. Between Evasion and Activism: A Qualitative Inquiry into the Political Behavior of German and Swedish Long-Term Unemployed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Hobbins

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This comparative article aims to understand the patterns underlying the political behavior of young German and Swedish long-term unemployed individuals. Based on almost 40 qualitative interviews, the analysis follows a grounded theory approach and shows that “unemployment” is not an objective reality that imposes uniform living conditions. Social and political activities diverge considerably, even though our respondents experience similar pressures and sanctions by public opinion, political parties, public administrations, relatives and/or acquaintances. The consequences of unemployment depend on individual mind-sets, support networks and coping strategies. This study identifies informal networks of social relations as one main factor influencing unemployed young peoples’ political behavior. Three types of political involvement are shaped by the routines and norms reproduced within their web of social relations in everyday life: evasion, civic minimalism and reluctant activism. The similarities between the German and the Swedish respondents overshadowed the national differences

  14. REMI and ROUSE: Quantitative Models for Long-Term and Short-Term Priming in Perceptual Identification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.J. Wagenmakers (Eric-Jan); R. Zeelenberg (René); D.E. Huber (David); J.G.W. Raaijmakers (Jeroen)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe REM model originally developed for recognition memory (Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997) has recently been extended to implicit memory phenomena observed during threshold identification of words. We discuss two REM models based on Bayesian principles: a model for long-term priming (REMI;

  15. Predicting long-term organic carbon dynamics in organically amended soils using the CQESTR model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaza, Cesar; Polo, Alfredo [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Madrid (Spain). Inst. de Ciencias Agrarias; Gollany, Hero T. [Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, OR (United States). USDA-ARS; Baldoni, Guido; Ciavatta, Claudio [Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dept. of Agroenvironmental Sciences and Technologies

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: The CQESTR model is a process-based C model recently developed to simulate soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and uses readily available or easily measurable input parameters. The current version of CQESTR (v. 2.0) has been validated successfully with a number of datasets from agricultural sites in North America but still needs to be tested in other geographic areas and soil types under diverse organic management systems. Materials and methods: We evaluated the predictive performance of CQESTR to simulate long-term (34 years) soil organic C (SOC) changes in a SOM-depleted European soil either unamended or amended with solid manure, liquid manure, or crop residue. Results and discussion: Measured SOC levels declined over the study period in the unamended soil, remained constant in the soil amended with crop residues, and tended to increase in the soils amended with manure, especially with solid manure. Linear regression analysis of measured SOC contents and CQESTR predictions resulted in a correlation coefficient of 0.626 (P < 0.001) and a slope and an intercept not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively (95% confidence level). The mean squared deviation and root mean square error were relatively small. Simulated values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the measured SOC, and predicted errors were mainly associated with data scattering. Conclusions: The CQESTR model was shown to predict, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the organic C dynamics in the soils examined. The CQESTR performance, however, could be improved by adding an additional parameter to differentiate between pre-decomposed organic amendments with varying degrees of stability. (orig.)

  16. Comparison of the long-term behavioral effects of neonatal exposure to retigabine or phenobarbital in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Sari; Medvedeva, Natalia; Gutherz, Samuel; Kulick, Catherine; Kondratyev, Alexei; Forcelli, Patrick A

    2016-04-01

    Anticonvulsant drugs, when given during vulnerable periods of brain development, can have long-lasting consequences on nervous system function. In rats, the second postnatal week approximately corresponds to the late third trimester of gestation/early infancy in humans. Exposure to phenobarbital during this period has been associated with deficits in learning and memory, anxiety-like behavior, and social behavior, among other domains. Phenobarbital is the most common anticonvulsant drug used in neonatology. Several other drugs, such as lamotrigine, phenytoin, and clonazepam, have also been reported to trigger behavioral changes. A new generation anticonvulsant drug, retigabine, has not previously been evaluated for long-term effects on behavior. Retigabine acts as an activator of KCNQ channels, a mechanism that is unique among anticonvulsants. Here, we examined the effects retigabine exposure from postnatal day (P)7 to P14 on behavior in adult rats. We compared these effects with those produced by phenobarbital (as a positive control) and saline (as a negative control). Motor behavior was assessed by using the open field and rotarod, anxiety-like behavior by the open field, elevated plus maze, and light-dark transition task, and learning/memory by the passive avoidance task; social interactions were assessed in same-treatment pairs, and nociceptive sensitivity was assessed via the tail-flick assay. Motor behavior was unaltered by exposure to either drug. We found that retigabine exposure and phenobarbital exposure both induced increased anxiety-like behavior in adult animals. Phenobarbital, but not retigabine, exposure impaired learning and memory. These drugs also differed in their effects on social behavior, with retigabine-exposed animals displaying greater social interaction than phenobarbital-exposed animals. These results indicate that neonatal retigabine induces a subset of behavioral alterations previously described for other anticonvulsant drugs and extend

  17. The family environment predicts long-term academic achievement and classroom behavior following traumatic brain injury in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durber, Chelsea M; Yeates, Keith Owen; Taylor, H Gerry; Walz, Nicolay Chertkoff; Stancin, Terry; Wade, Shari L

    2017-07-01

    This study examined how the family environment predicts long-term academic and behavioral functioning in school following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in early childhood. Using a concurrent cohort, prospective design, 15 children with severe TBI, 39 with moderate TBI, and 70 with orthopedic injury (OI) who were injured when they were 3-7 years of age were compared on tests of academic achievement and parent and teacher ratings of school performance and behavior on average 6.83 years postinjury. Soon after injury and at the longer term follow-up, families completed measures of parental psychological distress, family functioning, and quality of the home environment. Hierarchical linear regression analyses examined group differences in academic outcomes and their associations with measures of the early and later family environment. The severe TBI group, but not the moderate TBI group, performed worse than did the OI group on all achievement tests, parent ratings of academic performance, and teacher ratings of internalizing problems. Higher quality early and late home environments predicted stronger academic skills and better classroom behavior for children with both TBI and OI. The early family environment more consistently predicted academic achievement, whereas the later family environment more consistently predicted classroom functioning. The quality of the home environment predicted academic outcomes more strongly than did parental psychological distress or family functioning. TBI in early childhood has long-term consequences for academic achievement and school performance and behavior. Higher quality early and later home environments predict better school outcomes for both children with TBI and children with OI. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Introduction: Long term prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranger, G.

    2003-01-01

    Making a decision upon the right choice of a material appropriate to a given application should be based on taking into account several parameters as follows: cost, standards, regulations, safety, recycling, chemical properties, supplying, transformation, forming, assembly, mechanical and physical properties as well as the behaviour in practical conditions. Data taken from a private communication (J.H.Davidson) are reproduced presenting the life time range of materials from a couple of minutes to half a million hours corresponding to applications from missile technology up to high-temperature nuclear reactors or steam turbines. In the case of deep storage of nuclear waste the time required is completely different from these values since we have to ensure the integrity of the storage system for several thousand years. The vitrified nuclear wastes should be stored in metallic canisters made of iron and carbon steels, stainless steels, copper and copper alloys, nickel alloys or titanium alloys. Some of these materials are passivating metals, i.e. they develop a thin protective film, 2 or 3 nm thick - the so-called passive films. These films prevent general corrosion of the metal in a large range of chemical condition of the environment. In some specific condition, localized corrosion such as the phenomenon of pitting, occurs. Consequently, it is absolutely necessary to determine these chemical condition and their stability in time to understand the behavior of a given material. In other words the corrosion system is constituted by the complex material/surface/medium. For high level nuclear wastes the main features for resolving problem are concerned with: geological disposal; deep storage in clay; waste metallic canister; backfill mixture (clay-gypsum) or concrete; long term behavior; data needed for modelling and for predicting; choice of appropriate solution among several metallic candidates. The analysis of the complex material/surface/medium is of great importance

  19. An Analysis of the Long-term Photometric Behavior of epsilon Aurigae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloppenborg, B. K.; Hopkins, J. L.; Stencel, R. E.

    2012-10-01

    The lure of a 50% reduction in light has brought a multitude of observers and researchers to epsilon Aur every twenty-seven years, but few have paid attention to the system outside of eclipse. As early as the late 1800s, it was clear that the system undergoes some form of quasi-periodic variation outside of totality, but few considered this effect in their research until the mid-1950s. In this work we focus exclusively on the out-of-eclipse (OOE) variations seen in this system. We have digitized twenty-seven sources of historic photometry from eighty-one different observers. Two of these sources provide twenty-seven years of inter-eclipse UBV photometry which we have analyzed using modern period finding techniques. We have discovered the F-star variations are multi-periodic with at least two periods that evolve in time at DP ≈ -1.5 day/year. These periods are detected when they manifest as near-sinusoidal variations at 3,200-day intervals. We discuss our work in an evolutionary context by comparing the behavior found in epsilon Aur with bona-fide supergiant and post-AGB stars of similar spectral type. Based upon our qualitative comparison, we find the photometric behavior of the F-star in the epsilon Aur system is more indicative of supergiant behavior. Therefore the star is more likely to be a "traditional supergiant" than a post-AGB object. We encourage continued photometric monitoring of this system to test our predictions.

  20. Corrosion behavior, mechanical properties, and long-term aging of nickel-plated uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dini, J.W.; Johnson, H.R.; Schoenfelder, C.W.

    1976-01-01

    The behavior of nickel-plated uranium upon exposure to moist nitrogen was evaluated. Plating thicknesses of 0.051 mm (2 mil) were adequate to prevent corrosion. Specimens with thinner coats showed some corrosion and some reduction in mechanical properties during subsequent testing. Plated samples exposed to dry air at ambient pressure for 10 y showed no corrosion and no degradation of mechanical properties. Surface and bulk hydrogen content, as well as free hydrogen generated during the test, were measured to determine the extent of corrosion. Results support an earlier proposed mechanism for uranium corrosion at low humidities

  1. A study on shear behavior of reinforced concrete beams subjected to long-term heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruta, M.; Yamazaki, M.; Miyashita, T.

    1995-01-01

    A study has been undertaken to determine the shear behavior of reinforced concrete members in nuclear power plant facilities following sustained heating to high temperatures. A total of nine specimens was tested. The parameters of the tests were (1) heating temperature (65, 90 and 175 C) and (2) heating period (1, 3, 6 or 12 months). Different combinations of these parameters were employed, and the shear strength deterioration rate was evaluated. The test results were confirmed by a non-linear finite element analysis. The relationship between the concrete compressive strengths, which varied from heating face to upper portion, and the shear strength in specimens was evaluated. (orig.)

  2. Psychometrics Matter in Health Behavior: A Long-term Reliability Generalization Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickett, Andrew C; Valdez, Danny; Barry, Adam E

    2017-09-01

    Despite numerous calls for increased understanding and reporting of reliability estimates, social science research, including the field of health behavior, has been slow to respond and adopt such practices. Therefore, we offer a brief overview of reliability and common reporting errors; we then perform analyses to examine and demonstrate the variability of reliability estimates by sample and over time. Using meta-analytic reliability generalization, we examined the variability of coefficient alpha scores for a well-designed, consistent, nationwide health study, covering a span of nearly 40 years. For each year and sample, reliability varied. Furthermore, reliability was predicted by a sample characteristic that differed among age groups within each administration. We demonstrated that reliability is influenced by the methods and individuals from which a given sample is drawn. Our work echoes previous calls that psychometric properties, particularly reliability of scores, are important and must be considered and reported before drawing statistical conclusions.

  3. Evaluation and summary of a study of the long-term multiaxial creep behavior of concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, T.W.

    1975-12-01

    The creep behavior of concrete subjected to triaxial compressive stresses and elevated temperature was evaluated. Strains were measured in cylindrical specimens subjected to 58 test conditions: 0--3600 psi compressions; curing times of 90, 183, and 365 days; two curing histories (air-dried and as-cast); and two temperatures (75 and 150 0 F). The 90-day-cwed specimens were loaded for 12 months, followed by 5-month recovery. The other specimens were uniaxially stressed to 600 or 2400 psi for 5.25 or 4.75 years at 75 0 F, followed by 77-day recovery. Strain measurements were made during the curing, loaded, and unloaded-recovery periods. This report describes the experiment setup and summarizes the results and recommendations

  4. Long-term effects of neonatal medial temporal ablations on socioemotional behavior in monkeys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Málková, Ludise; Mishkin, Mortimer; Suomi, Stephen J.; Bachevalier, Jocelyne

    2010-01-01

    Socioemotional abnormalities, including low levels of social interaction and high levels of self-directed activity, were reported when rhesus monkeys with neonatal ablations of either the medial temporal lobe (AH) or the inferior temporal cortex (TE) were paired with unoperated peers at two and six months of age, though these abnormalities were more severe in the AH group (Bachevalier et al., 2001). As they reached adulthood (Experiment 1), the same monkeys were re-evaluated in the same dyads and their reactivity to novel toys, social status, and reactions to separation from age-matched peers were also assessed. Group TE now showed few if any of the abnormal behaviors observed when they were infants. By contrast, Group AH continued to display low levels of social interaction, high levels of self-directed activity and submissive behavior, and reduced responses to separation, although they reacted normally to novel toys. To determine whether this degree of socioemotional impairment was less severe than that produced by the same damage in adulthood, we assessed dyadic social interactions of monkeys raised until adulthood in laboratory conditions similar to those of the earlier groups and then given the AH ablation (Experiment 2). Two months postoperatively these adult-lesioned monkeys showed a small reduction in social interactions that became more pronounced six months postoperatively, yet remained less severe than that seen in the infant-lesioned monkeys. Also, except for an increase in food and water consumption throughout this 6-month period, they showed no other socioemotional effects. The finding that neonatal AH lesions produce more severe socioemotional disturbances than the same lesion in adulthood is the reverse of the effect commonly reported for other cognitive functions after cerebral damage. PMID:21133531

  5. A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Tran-Duy (An); A. Boonen (Annelies); M.A.F.J. van de Laar (Mart); A. Franke (Andre); J.L. Severens (Hans)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractObjective: To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods: Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model

  6. A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tran-Duy, A.; Boonen, A.; Laar, M.A.F.J.; Franke, A.C.; Severens, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model development. Drug

  7. From basalts to badlands : modelling long-term landscape response to lava damming of an upland catchment in western Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorp, van W.

    2014-01-01

    Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers (tectonics, climate, local base level) on long term catchment evolution. In this thesis, field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling are combined to

  8. Aging aggravates long-term renal ischemia-reperfusion injury in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xianlin; Fan, Min; He, Xiaozhou; Liu, Jipu; Qin, Jiandi; Ye, Jianan

    2014-03-01

    Ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI) has been considered as the major cause of acute kidney injury and can result in poor long-term graft function. Functional recovery after IRI is impaired in the elderly. In the present study, we aimed to compare kidney morphology, function, oxidative stress, inflammation, and development of renal fibrosis in young and aged rats after renal IRI. Rat models of warm renal IRI were established by clamping left pedicles for 45 min after right nephrectomy, then the clamp was removed, and kidneys were reperfused for up to 12 wk. Biochemical and histologic renal damage were assessed at 12 wk after reperfusion. The immunohistochemical staining of monocyte macrophage antigen-1 (ED-1) and transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGF-β1) and messenger RNA level of TGF-β1 in the kidney were analyzed. Renal IRI caused significant increases of malondialdehyde and 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine levels and a decrease of superoxide dismutase activity in young and aged IRI rats; however, these changes were more obvious in the aged rats. IRI resulted in severe inflammation and tubulointerstitial fibrosis with decreased creatinine (Cr) clearance and increased histologic damage in aged rats compared with young rats. Moreover, we measured the ratio of Cr clearance between young and aged IRI rats. It demonstrated that aged IRI rats did have poor Cr clearance compared with the young IRI rats. ED-1 and TGF-β1 expression levels in the kidney were significantly higher in aged rats than in young rats after IRI. Aged rats are more susceptible to IRI-induced renal failure, which may associate with the increased oxidative stress, increased histologic damage, and increased inflammation and tubulointerstitial fibrosis. Targeting oxidative stress and inflammatory response should improve the kidney recovery after IRI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Long-term fiscal implications of funding assisted reproduction: a generational accounting model for Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Matorras

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the lifetime economic benefits of assisted reproduction in Spain by calculating the return on this investment. We developed a generational accounting model that simulates the flow of taxes paid by the individual, minus direct government transfers received over the individual’s lifetime. The difference between discounted transfers and taxes minus the cost of either IVF or artificial insemination (AI equals the net fiscal contribution (NFC of a child conceived through assisted reproduction. We conducted sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our results under various macroeconomic scenarios. A child conceived through assisted reproduction would contribute €370,482 in net taxes to the Spanish Treasury and would receive €275,972 in transfers over their lifetime. Taking into account that only 75% of assisted reproduction pregnancies are successful, the NFC was estimated at €66,709 for IVF-conceived children and €67,253 for AI-conceived children. The return on investment for each euro invested was €15.98 for IVF and €18.53 for AI. The long-term NFC of a child conceived through assisted reproduction could range from €466,379 to €-9,529 (IVF and from €466,923 to €-8,985 (AI. The return on investment would vary between €-2.28 and €111.75 (IVF, and €-2.48 and €128.66 (AI for each euro invested. The break-even point at which the financial position would begin to favour the Spanish Treasury ranges between 29 and 41 years of age. Investment in assisted reproductive techniques may lead to positive discounted future fiscal revenue, notwithstanding its beneficial psychological effect for infertile couples in Spain.

  10. Stochastic long term modelling of a drainage system with estimation of return period uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    2009-01-01

    Long term prediction of maximum water levels and combined sewer overflow (CSO) in drainage systems are associated with large uncertainties. Especially on rainfall inputs, parameters, and assessment of return periods. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo based methodology for stochastic prediction of...

  11. Effect of long-term thermal exposure on the hot ductility behavior of GH3535 alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, F.F.; Zhou, B.M.; Huang, H.F.; Leng, B.; Lu, Y.L.; Li, Z.J.; Zhou, X.T.

    2016-01-01

    The hot ductility behavior of Ni–16Mo–7Cr alloys (named GH3535) exposed at 700 °C for different durations has been investigated by means of tensile test. It was found that the alloy exhibited a constant low ductility within the first 10 h exposure, and then showed an increasing ductility with the exposure time until 1000 h. After that, the ductility of the alloy decreased gradually with the increasing exposure time up to 10000 h. Detailed microstructural investigations using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) have shown that the change in the ductility of the alloy with the exposure time could be attributed to the precipitation of M 12 C carbide at the grain boundary. Such precipitates with size of 200 nm, which are formed during the thermal exposure within 1000 h, can significantly restrain the grain boundary sliding and crack initiation, resulting in the high ductility of the alloy. Further exposure will cause the coarsening of the carbides, making them as the source of grain boundary cracks, hence decreases the ductility of the alloy.

  12. Natural analogue study of long-term leaching behavior of vitrification glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Takashi; Yusa, Yasuhisa; Kamei; Gento

    1990-01-01

    In the research on the formation disposal of high level radioactive wastes, the evaluation of the leaching behavior of vitrification glass over ultralong term is one of the important themes. Therefore, the research on the phenomena of quality change in natural environment of volcanic glass, of which the chemical composition resembles well, was carried out (natural analogue study). Among the pyroclastic fall deposit in Fuji and Izu Oshima Volcanoes, the examples of the weathering change of quality of basaltic glass over several hundreds-several thousands years were selected, and on the spot survey, the analysis of groundwater, SEM observation, EPMA and so on were carried out. As the results, the following facts were found. According to the review of the literatures on ancient climate, the atmospheric temperature and precipitation in the past 3000 years were regarded as nearly the same as now. The products from the quality change were similar to the case of laboratory leaching experiment on vitrification glass. The measured ion concentration in groundwater agreed with the calculated values. (K.I.)

  13. Long-term recall of social relationships related to addiction and HIV risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stout, R L; Janssen, T; Braciszewski, J M; Vose-O'Neal, A

    2017-08-01

    Social relationships have been demonstrated as a key predictor of relapse among addicted persons and are likely to be important determinants of HIV risk behaviors also. However, the degree to which this population can reliably and consistently identify important people (IPs) in retrospect has been understudied. Using the modified Important People and Activities questionnaire, we investigated to what degree IPs were dropped, added, or retained, and whether data about individual IPs were reported accurately on 6- and 12-month follow up periods using a sample of 50 drug or alcohol abusing participants. We found that IPs were largely retained, and that those retained versus dropped/added differed by their reaction to participant alcohol/drug use, as well as frequency of contact. We further found that there were differences in reliability of data describing specific IPs. While both 6- and 12-month follow up periods led to reliabilities ranging from excellent to fair, we found poorer reliability on responses to recall of "frequency of contact" and "reactions to drinking", as well as "reactions to drug use". Future investigations of reliability of social relationships recalled retrospectively should attempt to examine possible systematic biases in addition to the reliability of specific IP data. More sophisticated studies are needed on factors associated with systematic variation in reporting of aspects of social relationships that are associated with addictions or HIV risk outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. What do short-term and long-term relationships look like? Building the relationship coordination and strategic timing (ReCAST) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwick, Paul W; Keneski, Elizabeth; Morgan, Taylor A; McDonald, Meagan A; Huang, Sabrina A

    2018-05-01

    Close relationships research has examined committed couples (e.g., dating relationships, marriages) using intensive methods that plot relationship development over time. But a substantial proportion of people's real-life sexual experiences take place (a) before committed relationships become "official" and (b) in short-term relationships; methods that document the time course of relationships have rarely been applied to these contexts. We adapted a classic relationship trajectory-plotting technique to generate the first empirical comparisons between the features of people's real-life short-term and long-term relationships across their entire timespan. Five studies compared long-term and short-term relationships in terms of the timing of relationship milestones (e.g., flirting, first sexual intercourse) and the occurrence/intensity of important relationship experiences (e.g., romantic interest, strong sexual desire, attachment). As romantic interest was rising and partners were becoming acquainted, long-term and short-term relationships were indistinguishable. Eventually, romantic interest in short-term relationships plateaued and declined while romantic interest in long-term relationships continued to rise, ultimately reaching a higher peak. As relationships progressed, participants evidenced more features characteristic of the attachment-behavioral system (e.g., attachment, caregiving) in long-term than short-term relationships but similar levels of other features (e.g., sexual desire, self-promotion, intrasexual competition). These data inform a new synthesis of close relationships and evolutionary psychological perspectives called the Relationship Coordination and Strategic Timing (ReCAST) model. ReCAST depicts short-term and long-term relationships as partially overlapping trajectories (rather than relationships initiated with distinct strategies) that differ in their progression along a normative relationship development sequence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c

  15. Model of the long-term transfer of radionuclides in forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, Rodolfo

    2006-05-01

    This report describes a model of the long-term behaviour in temperate and boreal forests of radionuclides entering the ecosystem with subsurface water. The model can be applied for most radionuclides that are of relevance in safety assessment of repositories for high-level radioactive waste. The model can be used for estimating radionuclide concentrations in soil, trees, understorey plants, mushrooms and forest mammals. A recommended (nominal) value and an interval of variation are provided for each model parameter and a classification of parameters by the degree of confidence in the values is given. Model testing against existing empirical data showing satisfactory results is also presented. Forests can play an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of radionuclides in the environment. Despite of this, forest ecosystems have not been addressed in previous safety assessments. This can be explained by the fact that a suitable model of the long-term transfer of a wide range of radionuclides in forests has not been readily available. The objective of this work was to develop a forest model applicable for a wide range of radionuclides of relevance for high level radioactive waste management (Am-241, Cl-36, Cs-135, I-129, Ni-59, Np-237, Pu-239, Ra-226, Sr-90, Tc-99, Th-232, U-238) that can potentially enter the ecosystem with contaminated groundwater. The model assumes that biomass growth, precipitation and evapo-transpiration drive the radionuclide cycling in the system by influencing the uptake of radionuclides by vegetation and their export from the system via runoff. The mathematical model of radionuclide transfer consists of a system of ordinary differential describing the mass balance in different forest compartments, taking into account the fluxes in and out from the compartment and the radionuclides decay. The fluxes between compartments are calculated by multiplying a transfer coefficient (TC) by the radionuclide inventory in the compartment

  16. Model of the long-term transfer of radionuclides in forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, Rodolfo [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden)

    2006-05-15

    This report describes a model of the long-term behaviour in temperate and boreal forests of radionuclides entering the ecosystem with subsurface water. The model can be applied for most radionuclides that are of relevance in safety assessment of repositories for high-level radioactive waste. The model can be used for estimating radionuclide concentrations in soil, trees, understorey plants, mushrooms and forest mammals. A recommended (nominal) value and an interval of variation are provided for each model parameter and a classification of parameters by the degree of confidence in the values is given. Model testing against existing empirical data showing satisfactory results is also presented. Forests can play an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of radionuclides in the environment. Despite of this, forest ecosystems have not been addressed in previous safety assessments. This can be explained by the fact that a suitable model of the long-term transfer of a wide range of radionuclides in forests has not been readily available. The objective of this work was to develop a forest model applicable for a wide range of radionuclides of relevance for high level radioactive waste management (Am-241, Cl-36, Cs-135, I-129, Ni-59, Np-237, Pu-239, Ra-226, Sr-90, Tc-99, Th-232, U-238) that can potentially enter the ecosystem with contaminated groundwater. The model assumes that biomass growth, precipitation and evapo-transpiration drive the radionuclide cycling in the system by influencing the uptake of radionuclides by vegetation and their export from the system via runoff. The mathematical model of radionuclide transfer consists of a system of ordinary differential describing the mass balance in different forest compartments, taking into account the fluxes in and out from the compartment and the radionuclides decay. The fluxes between compartments are calculated by multiplying a transfer coefficient (TC) by the radionuclide inventory in the compartment

  17. Prediction of long term crevice corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement behavior of ASTM grade-12 titanium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, T.M.; Jain, H.

    1984-01-01

    Crevice corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement are potential failure modes of Grade-12 titanium high-level nuclear waste containers emplaced in rock salt repositories. A method is presented to estimate the environment domains for which immunity to these failure modes will exist for periods of hundreds of years. The estimation is based on the identification and quantification of mechanisms involved. Macroscopic concentration cell formation is responsible for crevice corrosion. The cell formation is accompanied by oxygen depletion, potential drop, anion accumulation and acidification inside the crevice. This process is quantified by simple mass balance equations which show that the immunity domain is a function of the time the container is exposed to the corrosion environment. Strain induced hydride formation is responsible for hydrogen assisted crack initiation. A simple model for slow crack growth is developed using data on growth rates measured at various temperatures. The parameters obtained in the model are used to estimate the threshold stress intensity and hydrogen solubility limit in the alloy at infinite container service time. This value gives a crack size below which container failure will not occur for a given applied stress and hydrogen concentration, and a hydrogen concentration limit at a given stress intensity. 37 references, 5 figures, 4 tables

  18. Long-term behavior of the population II Cepheid V1 in the globular cluster Messier 12

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, C.M.; Hogg, H.S.; Yee, A.

    1988-01-01

    Observations made over an interval of 73 yr have been used to study the period changes of the W Virginis star in M12. They show that the period has undergone a series of abrupt changes, both increasing and decreasing, instead of a smooth change as predicted by evolutionary theory. This result is compared with period changes of W Virginis and RV Tauri stars in other galactic globular clusters, and it is found that the long-term behavior of the periods of most of these stars is similar to that of the variable in M12. However, two stars, V42 in M5 and V1 in Omega Centauri, may be in their final blueward evolutionary phase. 45 references

  19. Rape-related symptoms in adolescents: short- and long-term outcome after cognitive behavior group therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iva Bicanic

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Efficacy studies on treatment in adolescent victims of single rape are lacking, even though sexual victimization is most likely to occur during adolescence and despite the fact that adolescents are at risk to develop subsequent posttraumatic stress disorder. Aim: The aim of this prospective observational study was to evaluate the short- and long-term outcomes of a nine-session cognitive behavior group therapy (STEPS, including a parallel six-session parents’ group on rape-related symptomatology in female adolescents (13–18 years. STEPS includes psychoeducation, exposure in sensu as well as in vivo, cognitive restructuring, and relapse prevention. Methods: Fifty-five female adolescents with mental health problems due to single rape, but without prior sexual trauma, received STEPS while their parents participated in a support group. Subjects were assessed on posttraumatic stress (PTS and comorbid symptoms using self-report questionnaires prior to and directly after treatment, and at 6 and 12 months follow-up. Results: Repeated measures analysis showed a significant and large decrease in symptoms of PTS, anxiety, depression, anger, dissociation, sexual concerns, and behavior problems directly after treatment, which maintained at 12 months follow-up. Time since trauma did not influence the results. Dropout during STEPS was 1.8%. Conclusions: The results potentially suggest that the positive treatment outcomes at short- and long-term may be caused by STEPS. The encouraging findings need confirmation in future controlled studies on the effectiveness of STEPS because it may be possible that the treatment works especially well for more chronic symptoms, while the less chronic part of the sample showed considerable improvement on its own.

  20. Rape-related symptoms in adolescents: short- and long-term outcome after cognitive behavior group therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bicanic, Iva; de Roos, Carlijn; van Wesel, Floryt; Sinnema, Gerben; van de Putte, Elise

    2014-01-01

    Efficacy studies on treatment in adolescent victims of single rape are lacking, even though sexual victimization is most likely to occur during adolescence and despite the fact that adolescents are at risk to develop subsequent posttraumatic stress disorder. The aim of this prospective observational study was to evaluate the short- and long-term outcomes of a nine-session cognitive behavior group therapy (STEPS), including a parallel six-session parents' group on rape-related symptomatology in female adolescents (13-18 years). STEPS includes psychoeducation, exposure in sensu as well as in vivo, cognitive restructuring, and relapse prevention. Fifty-five female adolescents with mental health problems due to single rape, but without prior sexual trauma, received STEPS while their parents participated in a support group. Subjects were assessed on posttraumatic stress (PTS) and comorbid symptoms using self-report questionnaires prior to and directly after treatment, and at 6 and 12 months follow-up. Repeated measures analysis showed a significant and large decrease in symptoms of PTS, anxiety, depression, anger, dissociation, sexual concerns, and behavior problems directly after treatment, which maintained at 12 months follow-up. Time since trauma did not influence the results. Dropout during STEPS was 1.8%. The results potentially suggest that the positive treatment outcomes at short- and long-term may be caused by STEPS. The encouraging findings need confirmation in future controlled studies on the effectiveness of STEPS because it may be possible that the treatment works especially well for more chronic symptoms, while the less chronic part of the sample showed considerable improvement on its own.

  1. The long-term behavior of glasses for wastes containment purposes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gin, S.

    2010-01-01

    In the presence of water, nuclear glasses undergo reactions that may be attributed, in part, to the nature of the chemical bonds set up within the glass structure, and - as regards other reactions - owing to the properties of the solute species. The main reactions involved include ion exchanges, these chiefly involving alkali metals, weakly bonded as these are to the glass network, silicon hydrolysis-condensation reactions, resulting in the formation of a porous hydrated layer, gradually taking on a passivating role, along with the precipitation of crystallized secondary phases. At the temperatures of interest in the disposal context (25 - 90 C degrees), such secondary phases mainly involve clay minerals. Fundamental research studies, conducted to gain an understanding of the mechanisms involved, have highlighted the existence of a strong coupling, at the mesoscopic scale, between the aforementioned chemical reactions, and solute transport, the hydrated layer having the ability to take on a passivating role, as its porosity closes. A new model named GRAAL (for Glass Reactivity with Allowance for the Alteration Layer), includes an explicit description of the four chief alteration mechanisms acting on glass: formation of the passivating layer by glass hydration, diffusion of water across that layer, dissolution of that layer over its outside surface, and precipitation of crystallized secondary phases. The equations may either be solved analytically, for simple cases, or be integrated into a geochemical code, to cater for chemistry-transport couplings, and simulate complex systems

  2. Long-term leaching behavior of simulated Savannah River Plant waste glass: Part 1, MCC-1 leachability results, four-year leaching data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wicks, G.G.; Stone, J.A.; Chandler, G.T.; Williams, S.

    1986-08-01

    Long-term leaching data were obtained on SRP 131/TDS waste glass using MCC-1 or slightly modified MCC-1 standard leaching tests. Experiments were conducted out to four years at 40 0 C and 3-1/2 years at 90 0 C. These experiments have produced the longest standardized leaching data currently available in the waste management community. Long-term leaching data provide important input to modeling of waste glass behavior and ultimate prediction of waste glass performance. In this study, the leaching behavior of SRP waste glass was found to be excellent; leachates based on a variety of elements were not only very low, but also improved with increasing time. In addition to these data, results are also reported from another independent Savannah River study. Leaching behavior at 40 0 C and 90 0 C was assessed not only for a similar SRP 131 waste glass composition, but also for extreme waste glass compositions involving high-iron and high-aluminum waste. In addition, these experiments were performed using not only a standard deionized water leachant, but also simplified brine and silicate groundwater simulations. These two large data bases will be summarized and correlated along with some of the more interesting results recently reported in another study, a two-year leaching program performed on a similar SRP waste glass composition at Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories

  3. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  4. Long-term modelling of nitrogen turnover and critical loads in a forested catchment using the INCA model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-J. Langusch

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Many forest ecosystems in Central Europe have reached the status of N saturation due to chronically high N deposition. In consequence, the NO3 leaching into ground- and surface waters is often substantial. Critical loads have been defined to abate the negative consequences of the NO3 leaching such as soil acidification and nutrient losses. The steady state mass balance method is normally used to calculate critical loads for N deposition in forest ecosystems. However, the steady state mass balance approach is limited because it does not take into account hydrology and the time until the steady state is reached. The aim of this study was to test the suitability of another approach: the dynamic model INCA (Integrated Nitrogen Model for European Catchments. Long-term effects of changing N deposition and critical loads for N were simulated using INCA for the Lehstenbach spruce catchment (Fichtelgebirge, NE Bavaria, Germany under different hydrological conditions. Long-term scenarios of either increasing or decreasing N deposition indicated that, in this catchment, the response of nitrate concentrations in runoff to changing N deposition is buffered by a large groundwater reservoir. The critical load simulated by the INCA model with respect to a nitrate concentration of 0.4 mg N l–1 as threshold value in runoff was 9.7 kg N ha–1yr–1 compared to 10 kg ha–1yr–1 for the steady state model. Under conditions of lower precipitation (520 mm the resulting critical load was 7.7 kg N ha–1yr–1 , suggesting the necessity to account for different hydrological conditions when calculating critical loads. The INCA model seems to be suitable to calculate critical loads for N in forested catchments under varying hydrological conditions e.g. as a consequence of climate change. Keywords: forest ecosystem, N saturation, critical load, modelling, long-term scenario, nitrate leaching, critical loads reduction, INCA

  5. A Diffusion Model Analysis of Adult Age Differences in Episodic and Semantic Long-Term Memory Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaniol, Julia; Madden, David J.; Voss, Andreas

    2006-01-01

    Two experiments investigated adult age differences in episodic and semantic long-term memory tasks, as a test of the hypothesis of specific age-related decline in context memory. Older adults were slower and exhibited lower episodic accuracy than younger adults. Fits of the diffusion model (R. Ratcliff, 1978) revealed age-related increases in…

  6. Forest landscape models, a tool for understanding the effect of the large-scale and long-term landscape processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Robert E. Keane; Louis R. Iverson

    2008-01-01

    Forest landscape models have become important tools for understanding large-scale and long-term landscape (spatial) processes such as climate change, fire, windthrow, seed dispersal, insect outbreak, disease propagation, forest harvest, and fuel treatment, because controlled field experiments designed to study the effects of these processes are often not possible (...

  7. Developing a long-term global tourism transport model using a behavioural approach: implications for sustainable tourism policy making.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, P.M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary.

  8. Bifurcation analysis of a delay differential equation model associated with the induction of long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Lijie; Yang, Zhuoqin; Lei, Jinzhi

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A delay differentiation equation model for CREB regulation is developed. • Increasing the time delay can generate various bifurcations. • Increasing the time delay can induce chaos by two routes. - Abstract: The ability to form long-term memories is an important function for the nervous system, and the formation process is dynamically regulated through various transcription factors, including CREB proteins. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a delay differential equation model for CREB protein activities, which involves two positive and two negative feedbacks in the regulatory network. We discuss the dynamical mechanisms underlying the induction of long-term memory, in which bistability is essential for the formation of long-term memory, while long time delay can destabilize the high level steady state to inhibit the long-term memory formation. The model displays rich dynamical response to stimuli, including monostability, bistability, and oscillations, and can transit between different states by varying the negative feedback strength. Introduction of a time delay to the model can generate various bifurcations such as Hopf bifurcation, fold limit cycle bifurcation, Neimark–Sacker bifurcation of cycles, and period-doubling bifurcation, etc. Increasing the time delay can induce chaos by two routes: quasi-periodic route and period-doubling cascade.

  9. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  10. Model and economic uncertainties in balancing short-term and long-term objectives in water-flooding optimization.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siraj, M.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2015-01-01

    Model-based optimization of oil production has a significant scope to increase ultimate recovery or financial life-cycle performance. The Net Present Value (NPV) objective in such an optimization framework, because of its nature, focuses on the long-term gains while the short-term production is not

  11. Advances in the implementation of a generic long term model for the hydro industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welt, F.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation describes the Vista Long Term (LT) simulation and decision tool developed for the hydropower and water resource industries by Synexus Global. Vista maximizes the value of hydro resources while addressing environmental concerns. It improves water resource management for all uses over the long term. The tool has been used and adapted to many systems around the world, including Bonneville Power Administration, Reliant Energy, PacifiCorp and Great Lakes Power in the United States and Nova Scotia Power, Yukon Energy, and Newfoundland Hydro in Canada. Vista also helps to plan alternative operating policies and system upgrades by maximizing the expected value of generation and transactions. The tool provides reservoir releases, generation, flows, levels and transactions. Hydroelectric generating facilities that use the Vista tool have improved clean energy production as well as increased revenues resulting from reservoir and plant optimization. tabs., figs

  12. Enhanced long term microcircuit plasticity in the valproic acid animal model of autism

    OpenAIRE

    Guilherme T Silva; Guilherme T Silva; Jean-Vincent Le Bé; Imad Riachi; Tania Rinaldi; Kamila Markram; Henry Markram

    2009-01-01

    A single intra-peritoneal injection of valproic acid (VPA) on embryonic day (ED) 11.5 to pregnant rats has been shown to produce severe autistic-like symptoms in the offspring. Previous studies showed that the microcircuitry is hyperreactive due to hyperconnectivity of glutamatergic synapses and hyperplastic due to over-expression of NMDA receptors. These changes were restricted to the dimensions of a mini-column (<50μm). In the present study, we explored whether Long Term Microcircuit ...

  13. Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ardakani, F.J.; Ardehali, M.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Novel effects of DSM data on electricity consumption forecasting is examined. • Optimal ANN models based on IPSO and SFL algorithms are developed. • Addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36%. - Abstract: Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 2010–2030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 1967–2009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9 TW h) in EEC for 2010–2030

  14. Long-term creep behavior of high-temperature gas turbine materials under constant and variable stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Granacher, J.; Preussler, T.

    1987-01-01

    Within the framework of the documented research project, extensive creep rupture tests were carried out with characteristic, high-temperature gas turbine materials for establishment of improved design data. In the range of the main application temperatures and in stress ranges down to application-relevant values the tests extended over a period of about 40,000 hours. In addition, long-term annealing tests were carried out in the most important temperature ranges for the measurement of the density-dependent straim, which almost always manifested itself as a material contraction. Furthermore, hot tensile tests were carried out for the description of the elastoplastic short-term behavior. Several creep curves were derived from the results of the different tests with a differentiated evaluation method. On the basis of these creep curves, creep equations were set up for a series of materials which are valid in the entire examined temperature range and stress range and up to the end of the secondary creep range. Also, equations for the time-temperature-dependent description of the material contraction behavior were derived. With these equations, the high-temperature deformation behavior of the examined materials under constant creep stress can be described simply and application-oriented. (orig.) With 109 figs., 19 tabs., 77 refs [de

  15. Long-term parental methamphetamine exposure of mice influences behavior and hippocampal DNA methylation of the offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itzhak, Y; Ergui, I; Young, J I

    2015-02-01

    The high rate of methamphetamine (METH) abuse among young adults and women of childbearing age makes it imperative to determine the long-term effects of METH exposure on the offspring. We hypothesized that parental METH exposure modulates offspring behavior by disrupting epigenetic programming of gene expression in the brain. To simulate the human pattern of drug use, male and female C57Bl/6J mice were exposed to escalating doses of METH or saline from adolescence through adulthood; following mating, females continue to receive drug or saline through gestational day 17. F1 METH male offspring showed enhanced response to cocaine-conditioned reward and hyperlocomotion. Both F1 METH male and female offspring had reduced response to conditioned fear. Cross-fostering experiments have shown that certain behavioral phenotypes were modulated by maternal care of either METH or saline dams. Analysis of offspring hippocampal DNA methylation showed differentially methylated regions as a result of both METH in utero exposure and maternal care. Our results suggest that behavioral phenotypes and epigenotypes of offspring that were exposed to METH in utero are vulnerable to (a) METH exposure during embryonic development, a period when wide epigenetic reprogramming occurs, and (b) postnatal maternal care.

  16. Dietary and Behavioral Adjustments to Manage Bowel Dysfunction After Surgery in Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Survviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Virginia; Grant, Marcia; Wendel, Christopher S.; McMullen, Carmit K.; Bulkley, Joanna E.; Altschuler, Andrea; Ramirez, Michelle; Baldwin, Carol M.; Herrinton, Lisa J.; Hornbrook, Mark C.; Krouse, Robert S.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Bowel dysfunction is a known complication of colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery. Poor bowel control has a detrimental impact on survivors’ health-related quality of life (HRQOL). This analysis describes the dietary and behavioral adjustments used by CRC survivors to manage bowel dysfunction and compares adjustments used by survivors with permanent ostomy to those with anastomosis. METHODS This mixed-methods analysis included pooled data from several studies that assessed HRQOL in CRC survivors. In all studies, CRC survivors with or without permanent ostomies (N=856) were surveyed using the City of Hope Quality of Life Colorectal Cancer tool. Dietary adjustments were compared by ostomy status and by overall HRQOL score (high versus low). Qualitative data from 13 focus groups and 30 interviews were analyzed to explore specific strategies used by survivors to manage bowel dysfunction. RESULTS CRC survivors made substantial, permanent dietary and behavioral adjustments after surgery, regardless of ostomy status. Survivors who took longer after surgery to become comfortable with their diet or regain their appetite were more likely to report worse HRQOL. Adjustments to control bowel function were divided into four major strategies: dietary adjustments, behavioral adjustments, exercise, and medication use. CONCLUSIONS CRC survivors struggled with unpredictable bowel function and may fail to find a set of management strategies to achieve regularity. Understanding the myriad adjustments used by CRC survivors may lead to evidence-based interventions to foster positive adjustments after surgery and through long-term survivorship. PMID:26159443

  17. Dietary and Behavioral Adjustments to Manage Bowel Dysfunction After Surgery in Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Virginia; Grant, Marcia; Wendel, Christopher S; McMullen, Carmit K; Bulkley, Joanna E; Altschuler, Andrea; Ramirez, Michelle; Baldwin, Carol M; Herrinton, Lisa J; Hornbrook, Mark C; Krouse, Robert S

    2015-12-01

    Bowel dysfunction is a known complication of colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery. Poor bowel control has a detrimental impact on survivors' health-related quality of life (HRQOL). This analysis describes the dietary and behavioral adjustments used by CRC survivors to manage bowel dysfunction and compares adjustments used by survivors with permanent ostomy to those with anastomosis. This mixed-methods analysis included pooled data from several studies that assessed HRQOL in CRC survivors. In all studies, CRC survivors with or without permanent ostomies (N = 856) were surveyed using the City of Hope Quality of Life Colorectal Cancer tool. Dietary adjustments were compared by ostomy status and by overall HRQOL score (high vs. low). Qualitative data from 13 focus groups and 30 interviews were analyzed to explore specific strategies used by survivors to manage bowel dysfunction. CRC survivors made substantial, permanent dietary, and behavioral adjustments after surgery, regardless of ostomy status. Survivors who took longer after surgery to become comfortable with their diet or regain their appetite were more likely to report worse HRQOL. Adjustments to control bowel function were divided into four major strategies: dietary adjustments, behavioral adjustments, exercise, and medication use. CRC survivors struggled with unpredictable bowel function and may fail to find a set of management strategies to achieve regularity. Understanding the myriad adjustments used by CRC survivors may lead to evidence-based interventions to foster positive adjustments after surgery and through long-term survivorship.

  18. Long-Term Effects of Two Formats of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia Comorbid with Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savard, Josée; Ivers, Hans; Savard, Marie-Hélène; Morin, Charles M

    2016-04-01

    The goal of this randomized controlled trial, conducted in breast cancer patients, was to assess the long-term efficacy of a video-based cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (VCBT-I), as compared to a professionally administered intervention (PCBT-I) and to a no-treatment group (CTL). An earlier report revealed that, at posttreatment, VCBT-I patients showed significantly greater sleep improvements than CTL, but that PCBT-I produced superior effects than VCBT-I on some sleep and secondary outcomes. In this report, long-term effects are compared. Two hundred forty-two women with breast cancer and with insomnia symptoms or using hypnotic medications participated to this three-arm randomized controlled trial: (1) PCBT-I (n = 81); (2) VCBT-I (n = 80); or (3) no treatment (CTL; n = 81) group. PCBT-I was composed of six weekly, individual sessions of approximately 50 min, whereas VCBT-I comprised a 60-min animated video and six booklets. Study measures (sleep and secondary variables) were administered at pretreatment and posttreatment, and at a 3-, 6-, and 12-mo follow-up. Treatment gains were well sustained at follow-up in both PCBT-I and VCBT-I. As at posttreatment, the remission rate of insomnia at follow-up was greater in PCBT-I than in VCBT-I, which was greater than in CTL. Although face-to-face therapy remains the optimal format to efficaciously administer CBT for insomnia in cancer patients, a minimal intervention, such as the video-based intervention tested in this study, produces significant and sustainable treatment effects. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00674830. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  19. Effects of Chronic Vitamin D3 Hormone Administration on Anxiety-Like Behavior in Adult Female Rats after Long-Term Ovariectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Fedotova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The present preclinical study was created to determine the therapeutic effects of vitamin D hormone treatment as an adjunctive therapy alone or in a combination with low dose of 17β-estradiol (17β-E2 on anxiety-like behavior in female rats with long-term absence of estrogen. Accordingly, the aim of the current study was to examine the effects of chronic cholecalciferol administration (1.0, 2.5 or 5.0 mg/kg subcutaneously, SC, once daily, for 14 days on the anxiety-like state after long-term ovariectomy in female rats. Twelve weeks postovariectomy, cholecalciferol was administered to ovariectomized (OVX rats and OVX rats treated with 17β-E2 (0.5 µg/rat SC, once daily, for 14 days. Anxiety-like behavior was assessed in the elevated plus maze (EPM and the light/dark test (LDT, and locomotor and grooming activities were tested in the open field test (OFT. Cholecalciferol at two doses of 1.0 and 2.5 mg/kg alone or in combination with 17β-E2 produced anxiolytic-like effects in OVX rats as evidenced in the EPM and the LDT, as well as increased grooming activity in the OFT. Our results indicate that cholecalciferol, at two doses of 1.0 and 2.5 mg/kg, has a profound anxiolytic-like effects in the experimental rat model of long-term estrogen deficiency.

  20. Modelling accumulation of radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems originating from a long-term groundwater contamination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaerdenaes, Annemieke I. [Dept. of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7001, 750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Eckersten, Henrik [Dept. of Ecology and Crop Production, SLU, P.O. Box 7042, 750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Reinlert, Andre [Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, 223 62 Lund (Sweden); MMT, Sven Kaellfelts Gata 11 SE 426 71 Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden); Gustafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik [Dept. Land and Water Resources, KTH, SE 100 44, Stockholm (Sweden); Ekstroem, Per-Anders [Facilia AB, Gustavlundsvaegen 151A, 167 51 Bromma (Sweden); Greger, Maria [Dept. of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    This study was conducted as part of the risk assessment of final deposits of nuclear fuel waste. The overall objective is to assess the possible accumulation of radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems after an eventual long-term groundwater contamination. The specific objectives are to assess: i) What proportion of the contamination will accumulate in the soil-plant-system? ii) Where in the soil-plant- system will it accumulate? iii) Which ecosystem characteristics and radionuclides properties are important for the accumulation? and iv) Under which circumstances do losses from the ecosystems occur? We developed the dynamic model Tracey (Gaerdenaes et al. 2009) describing cycling of radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems with high temporal resolution (1 day). The model is a multi-compartmental model in which fluxes and storage of radionuclides are described for different plant parts and soil pools in each of the 10 soil layers. The radionuclide fluxes are driven either by water or carbon fluxes. The water and the carbon fluxes are simulated with the dynamic, bio-geophysical Coup Model (Jansson and Karlberg, 2004). Tracey includes two root uptake approaches of radionuclides; (i) passive uptake driven by root water uptake and (ii) active uptake driven by plant growth. A linear approach describes the adsorption of radionuclides to soil particles and organic matter. Tracey was applied on two ecosystems with contrasting hydrology, the mixed Pinus-Picea forests found in the dry, elevated areas and the Alnus forests found in the wet, low-land areas of Uppland in central east Sweden. Different varieties of the two forest types were created by varying the root depth and radiation use efficiency. The climate was cold-temperate and based on 30-year daily weather data from Uppsala. The assumed groundwater contamination was close to 1 mg of an unspecified radionuclide per m2 and year. This load corresponds to 1 Bq per m{sup 2} and year of {sup 238}U, a common long

  1. Numeric simulation model for long-term orthodontic tooth movement with contact boundary conditions using the finite element method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamanaka, Ryo; Yamaoka, Satoshi; Anh, Tuan Nguyen; Tominaga, Jun-Ya; Koga, Yoshiyuki; Yoshida, Noriaki

    2017-11-01

    Although many attempts have been made to simulate orthodontic tooth movement using the finite element method, most were limited to analyses of the initial displacement in the periodontal ligament and were insufficient to evaluate the effect of orthodontic appliances on long-term tooth movement. Numeric simulation of long-term tooth movement was performed in some studies; however, neither the play between the brackets and archwire nor the interproximal contact forces were considered. The objectives of this study were to simulate long-term orthodontic tooth movement with the edgewise appliance by incorporating those contact conditions into the finite element model and to determine the force system when the space is closed with sliding mechanics. We constructed a 3-dimensional model of maxillary dentition with 0.022-in brackets and 0.019 × 0.025-in archwire. Forces of 100 cN simulating sliding mechanics were applied. The simulation was accomplished on the assumption that bone remodeling correlates with the initial tooth displacement. This method could successfully represent the changes in the moment-to-force ratio: the tooth movement pattern during space closure. We developed a novel method that could simulate the long-term orthodontic tooth movement and accurately determine the force system in the course of time by incorporating contact boundary conditions into finite element analysis. It was also suggested that friction is progressively increased during space closure in sliding mechanics. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Thermal interaction of the core and the mantle and long-term behavior of the geomagnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G. M.

    1977-01-01

    The effects of temperature changes at the earth's core-mantle boundary on the velocity field of the core are analyzed. It is assumed that the geomagnetic field is maintained by thermal convection in the outer core. A model for the thermal interaction of the core and the mantle is presented which is consistent with current views on the presence of heat sources in the core and the properties of the lower mantle. Significant long-term variations in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals may be the result of fluctuating temperatures at the core-mantle boundary, caused by intermittent convection in the lower mantle. The thermal structure of the lower mantle region D double prime, extending from 2700 to 2900 km in depth, constitutes an important test of this hypothesis and offers a means of deciding whether the geomagnetic dynamo is thermally driven.

  3. Study on crystalline rock aiming at evaluation method of long-term behavior of rock mass (Joint research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, Katsunori; Hashiba, Kimihiro; Matsui, Hiroya

    2017-11-01

    It is important to evaluate the stability of a repository for high-level radioactive waste not only during the design, construction and operation phases, but also during the post-closure period, for time frames likely exceeding several millennia or longer. The rock mass around the tunnels could be deformed through time in response to time dependent behavior such as creep and stress relaxation. Therefore, development of methodology to evaluate the past long-term behavior of rock mass is considered to be an issue. In view of above points, this study has been started as a collaboration study with the University of Tokyo from Fiscal Year 2016. In FY 2016, creep testing on Tage tuff was continuously conducted. Existing theory of rate process and stochastic process was modified to be applied to evaluate effects of water, and then the modified theory was validated based on the results of strength and creep tests performed under dry and wet conditions. Furthermore, effects of water contents on stress-strain curves were examined by uniaxial compression testing under various water content conditions. (author)

  4. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for obsessive–compulsive disorder: access to treatment, prediction of long-term outcome with neuroimaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O’Neill J

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Joseph O'Neill,1 Jamie D Feusner,2 1Division of Child Psychiatry, 2Division of Adult Psychiatry, UCLA Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, Los Angeles, CA, USA Abstract: This article reviews issues related to a major challenge to the field for obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD: improving access to cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT. Patient-related barriers to access include the stigma of OCD and reluctance to take on the demands of CBT. Patient-external factors include the shortage of trained CBT therapists and the high costs of CBT. The second half of the review focuses on one partial, yet plausible aid to improve access – prediction of long-term response to CBT, particularly using neuroimaging methods. Recent pilot data are presented revealing a potential for pretreatment resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopy of the brain to forecast OCD symptom severity up to 1 year after completing CBT. Keywords: follow-up, access to treatment, relapse, resting-state fMRI, magnetic resonance spectroscopy

  5. Long-term modeling of soil C erosion and sequestration at the small watershed scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, R.C.; Thomson, A.M. [The Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, MD 20740-2496 (United States); Williams, J.R. [Blacklands Research Center, Texas A and M University, 808 East Blacklands Road, Temple, TX 76502 (United States); Post, W.M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Building 1509, Bethel Valley Road, PO Box 2008 MS6335, Oak Ridge, TN 537831-6335 (United States); McGill, W.B. [College of Science and Management, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9 (Canada); Owens, L.B. [North Appalachian Experimental Watershed, USDA-Agricultural Research Station, 28850 SR 621, Coshocton, OH 43812-0488 (United States); Lal, R. [School of Natural Resources Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, The Ohio State University, 422B Kottman Hall, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States)

    2007-01-15

    The soil C balance is determined by the difference between inputs (e.g., plant litter, organic amendments, depositional C) and outputs (e.g., soil respiration, dissolved organic C leaching, and eroded C). There is a need to improve our understanding of whether soil erosion is a sink or a source of atmospheric CO2. The objective of this paper is to discover the long-term influence of soil erosion on the C cycle of managed watersheds near Coshocton, OH. We hypothesize that the amount of eroded C that is deposited in or out of a watershed compares in magnitude to the soil C changes induced via microbial respiration. We applied the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) model to evaluate the role of erosion-deposition processes on the C balance of three small watersheds ({approx}1 ha). Experimental records from the USDA North Appalachian Experimental Watershed facility north of Coshocton, OH were used in the study. Soils are predominantly silt loam and have developed from loess-like deposits over residual bedrock. Management practices in the three watersheds have changed over time. Currently, watershed 118 (W118) is under a corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) no till rotation, W128 is under conventional till continuous corn, and W188 is under no till continuous corn. Simulations of a comprehensive set of ecosystem processes including plant growth, runoff, and water erosion were used to quantify sediment C yields. A simulated sediment C yield of 43 {+-} 22 kg C ha{sup -1} year{sup -1} compared favorably against the observed 31 {+-} 12 kg C ha{sup -1} year{sup -1} in W118. EPIC overestimated the soil C stock in the top 30-cm soil depth in W118 by 21% of the measured value (36.8 Mg C ha{sup -1}). Simulations of soil C stocks in the other two watersheds (42.3 Mg C ha{sup -1} in W128 and 50.4 Mg C ha{sup -1} in W188) were off by <1 Mg C ha{sup -1}. Simulated eroded C re-deposited inside (30-212 kg C ha{sup -1} year{sup -1}) or outside (73{sup -1}79 kg

  6. Long-term modeling of soil C erosion and sequestration at the small watershed scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izaurralde, R.C.; Thomson, A.M.; Williams, J.R.; Post, W.M.; McGill, W.B.; Owens, L.B.; Lal, R.

    2007-01-01

    The soil C balance is determined by the difference between inputs (e.g., plant litter, organic amendments, depositional C) and outputs (e.g., soil respiration, dissolved organic C leaching, and eroded C). There is a need to improve our understanding of whether soil erosion is a sink or a source of atmospheric CO2. The objective of this paper is to discover the long-term influence of soil erosion on the C cycle of managed watersheds near Coshocton, OH. We hypothesize that the amount of eroded C that is deposited in or out of a watershed compares in magnitude to the soil C changes induced via microbial respiration. We applied the erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) model to evaluate the role of erosion-deposition processes on the C balance of three small watersheds (∼1 ha). Experimental records from the USDA North Appalachian Experimental Watershed facility north of Coshocton, OH were used in the study. Soils are predominantly silt loam and have developed from loess-like deposits over residual bedrock. Management practices in the three watersheds have changed over time. Currently, watershed 118 (W118) is under a corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) no till rotation, W128 is under conventional till continuous corn, and W188 is under no till continuous corn. Simulations of a comprehensive set of ecosystem processes including plant growth, runoff, and water erosion were used to quantify sediment C yields. A simulated sediment C yield of 43 ± 22 kg C ha -1 year -1 compared favorably against the observed 31 ± 12 kg C ha -1 year -1 in W118. EPIC overestimated the soil C stock in the top 30-cm soil depth in W118 by 21% of the measured value (36.8 Mg C ha -1 ). Simulations of soil C stocks in the other two watersheds (42.3 Mg C ha -1 in W128 and 50.4 Mg C ha -1 in W188) were off by -1 . Simulated eroded C re-deposited inside (30-212 kg C ha -1 year -1 ) or outside (73 -1 79 kg C ha -1 year -1 ) watershed boundaries compared in magnitude to a

  7. Construction of long-term isochronous stress-strain curves by a modeling of short-term creep curves for a Grade 9Cr-1Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Yin, Song-Nan; Koo, Gyeong-Hoi

    2009-01-01

    This study dealt with the construction of long-term isochronous stress-strain curves (ISSC) by a modeling of short-term creep curves for a Grade 9Cr-1Mo steel (G91) which is a candidate material for structural applications in the next generation nuclear reactors as well as in fusion reactors. To do this, tensile material data used in the inelastic constitutive equations was obtained by tensile tests at 550degC. Creep curves were obtained by a series of creep tests with different stress levels of 300MPa to 220MPa at an identical controlled temperature of 550degC. On the basis of these experimental data, the creep curves were characterized by Garofalo's creep model. Three parameters of P 1 , P 2 and P 3 in Garofalo's model were properly optimized by a nonlinear least square fitting (NLSF) analysis. The stress dependency of the three parameters was found to be a linear relationship. But, the P 3 parameter representing the steady state creep rate exhibited a two slope behavior with different stress exponents at a transient stress of about 250 MPa. The long-term creep curves of the G91 steel was modeled by Garofalo's model with only a few short-term creep data. Using the modeled creep curves, the long-term isochronous curves up to 10 5 hours were successfully constructed. (author)

  8. Constraints on the affinity term for modeling long-term glass dissolution rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourcier, W.L.; Carroll, S.A.; Phillips, B.L.

    1993-11-01

    Predictions of long-term glass dissolution rates are highly dependent on the form of the affinity term in the rate expression. Analysis of the quantitative effect of saturation state on glass dissolution rate for CSG glass (a simple analog of SRL-165 glass), shows that a simple (1-Q/K) affinity term does not match experimental results. Our data at 100 degree C show that the data is better fit by an affinity term having the form (1 - (Q/K) 1 /σ) where σ = 10

  9. Testing long-term memory in animal models of schizophrenia: suggestions from CNTRICS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussey, Timothy J; Barch, Deanna M; Baxter, Mark G

    2013-11-01

    This paper reports the results of discussions at the fourth meeting of Cognitive Neuroscience Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (CNTRICS) meeting, held over two days in Washington, DC in April 2011. The meeting focused on animal paradigms for assessing the cognitive constructs relevant to schizophrenia identified in previous CNTRICS meetings. This report focuses on the outcome of discussions in the general area of long-term memory. A number of candidate animal paradigms were discussed. Two of these - one for rodents and one for non-human primates - were recommended as particularly promising for further development. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Transcranial direct current stimulation improves long-term memory deficits in an animal model of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and modulates oxidative and inflammatory parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leffa, Douglas Teixeira; Bellaver, Bruna; Salvi, Artur Alban; de Oliveira, Carla; Caumo, Wolnei; Grevet, Eugenio Horacio; Fregni, Felipe; Quincozes-Santos, André; Rohde, Luis Augusto; Torres, Iraci L S

    2018-04-05

    Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a technique that modulates neuronal activity and has been proposed as a potential therapeutic tool for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms. Although pilot studies have shown evidence of efficacy, its mechanism of action remains unclear. We evaluated the effects of tDCS on behavioral (working and long-term memory) and neurochemical (oxidative and inflammatory parameters) outcomes related to ADHD pathophysiology. We used the most widely accepted animal model of ADHD: spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). The selected behavioral outcomes have been shown to be altered in both ADHD patients and animal models, and were chosen for their relation to the proposed mechanistic action of tDCS. Adult male SHR and their control, the Wistar Kyoto rats (WKY), were subjected to 20 min of bicephalic tDCS or sham stimulation for 8 consecutive days. Working memory, long-term memory, and neurochemical outcomes were evaluated. TDCS improved long-term memory deficits presented by the SHR. No change in working memory performance was observed. In the hippocampus, tDCS increased both the production of reactive oxygen species in SHR and the levels of the antioxidant molecule glutathione in both strains. TDCS also modulated inflammatory response in the brains of WKY by downregulating pro-inflammatory cytokines. TDCS had significant effects that were specific for strain, type of behavioral and neurochemical outcomes. The long-term memory improvement in the SHR may point to a possible therapeutic role of tDCS in ADHD that does not seem to be mediated by inflammatory markers. Additionally, the anti-inflammatory effects observed in the brain of WKY after tDCS needs to be further explored. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Chen [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Gupta, Vipul [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Huang, Shenyan [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Soare, Monica [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Zhao, Pengyang [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States); Wang, Yunzhi [GE Global Research, NIskayuna, NY (United States)

    2017-02-28

    The goal of this project is to model long-term creep performance for nickel-base superalloy weldments in high temperature power generation systems. The project uses physics-based modeling methodologies and algorithms for predicting alloy properties in heterogeneous material structures. The modeling methodology will be demonstrated on a gas turbine combustor liner weldment of Haynes 282 precipitate-strengthened nickel-base superalloy. The major developments are: (1) microstructure-property relationships under creep conditions and microstructure characterization (2) modeling inhomogeneous microstructure in superalloy weld (3) modeling mesoscale plastic deformation in superalloy weld and (4) a constitutive creep model that accounts for weld and base metal microstructure and their long term evolution. The developed modeling technology is aimed to provide a more efficient and accurate assessment of a material’s long-term performance compared with current testing and extrapolation methods. This modeling technology will also accelerate development and qualification of new materials in advanced power generation systems. This document is a final technical report for the project, covering efforts conducted from October 2014 to December 2016.

  12. Long-term relationships of major macro-variables in a resource-related economic model of Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, Charles; Hoa, T. van

    1993-01-01

    The paper reports the results of a simple cointegration analysis applied to bivariate causality models using data on resource output, oil prices, terms of trade, current account and output growth to investigate the long-term relationships among these major macroeconomic aggregates in a resource-related economic model of Australia. For the period 1960-1990, the empirical evidence indicates that these five macro-variables, as formulated in our model, are not random walks. In addition, resource production and oil prices are significantly cointegrated, and they are also significantly cointegrated with the current account, terms of trade and economic growth. These findings provide support to the long-term adjustments foundation of our resource-related model. (author)

  13. Long-term gas migration modelling in compacted bentonite using swelling/shrinkage-dependent two phase flow parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tawara, Y.; Mori, K.; Tada, K.; Shimura, T.; Sato, S.; Yamamoto, S.; Asano, H.; Namiki, K.

    2012-01-01

    inconsistent with those obtained from the gas injection test data. This inconsistency cannot be interpreted by standard hysteresis effect only. Since the moisture conditions of specimens used in the hydration test and the gas injection test were considerably different, we interpreted that swelling and shrinkage of montmorillonite induced the deformation of macro-pores. In order to deal with these phenomena, we proposed a new modelling approach which makes it possible to consider the interaction between pore moisture and macro-pores deformation. It leads to the consistent evaluation of the long-term gas migration behaviors including not only the re-saturation phase but also the gas generation and migration phase. Such mechanical effects are incorporated into the existing TH coupled code 'GETFLOWS' by introducing the saturation-dependent multiple non-linear functions such as porosity, permeability, capillary pressure and so on. Examples of swelling/shrinkage-dependent two phase flow parameters are shown in Figure 1. The shapes of capillary pressure and relative permeability curve are updated by the amount of pore moisture. Furthermore, the pathway dilation is generalized in the same treatments by specifying the water saturation threshold for the development of pathway propagations. Our proposed model has been applied to both laboratory-scaled and field-scaled gas migration problems. In the laboratory-scaled problems, we have confirmed that measured test data can be successfully reproduced by the new modelling approach using consistent parameters. In the field-scaled problems, it has found that the mechanical effect of swelling/shrinkage induced deformation of macro-pores impacts the performance measure, and should be considered in the gas migration analysis. This study includes a part of the result of 'Development of the technique for the evaluation of long-term performance of EBS, FY2011' under a grant from the Japanese Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry. (authors)

  14. A Relationship between Reduced Nucleus Accumbens Shell and Enhanced Lateral Hypothalamic Orexin Neuronal Activation in Long-Term Fructose Bingeing Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rorabaugh, Jacki M.; Stratford, Jennifer M.; Zahniser, Nancy R.

    2014-01-01

    Fructose accounts for 10% of daily calories in the American diet. Fructose, but not glucose, given intracerebroventricularly stimulates homeostatic feeding mechanisms within the hypothalamus; however, little is known about how fructose affects hedonic feeding centers. Repeated ingestion of sucrose, a disaccharide of fructose and glucose, increases neuronal activity in hedonic centers, the nucleus accumbens (NAc) shell and core, but not the hypothalamus. Rats given glucose in the intermittent access model (IAM) display signatures of hedonic feeding including bingeing and altered DA receptor (R) numbers within the NAc. Here we examined whether substituting fructose for glucose in this IAM produces bingeing behavior, alters DA Rs and activates hedonic and homeostatic feeding centers. Following long-term (21-day) exposure to the IAM, rats given 8–12% fructose solutions displayed fructose bingeing but unaltered DA D1R or D2R number. Fructose bingeing rats, as compared to chow bingeing controls, exhibited reduced NAc shell neuron activation, as determined by c-Fos-immunoreactivity (Fos-IR). This activation was negatively correlated with orexin (Orx) neuron activation in the lateral hypothalamus/perifornical area (LH/PeF), a brain region linking homeostatic to hedonic feeding centers. Following short-term (2-day) access to the IAM, rats exhibited bingeing but unchanged Fos-IR, suggesting only long-term fructose bingeing increases Orx release. In long-term fructose bingeing rats, pretreatment with the Ox1R antagonist SB-334867 (30 mg/kg; i.p.) equally reduced fructose bingeing and chow intake, resulting in a 50% reduction in calories. Similarly, in control rats, SB-334867 reduced chow/caloric intake by 60%. Thus, in the IAM, Ox1Rs appear to regulate feeding based on caloric content rather than palatability. Overall, our results, in combination with the literature, suggest individual monosaccharides activate distinct neuronal circuits to promote feeding behavior

  15. A relationship between reduced nucleus accumbens shell and enhanced lateral hypothalamic orexin neuronal activation in long-term fructose bingeing behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacki M Rorabaugh

    Full Text Available Fructose accounts for 10% of daily calories in the American diet. Fructose, but not glucose, given intracerebroventricularly stimulates homeostatic feeding mechanisms within the hypothalamus; however, little is known about how fructose affects hedonic feeding centers. Repeated ingestion of sucrose, a disaccharide of fructose and glucose, increases neuronal activity in hedonic centers, the nucleus accumbens (NAc shell and core, but not the hypothalamus. Rats given glucose in the intermittent access model (IAM display signatures of hedonic feeding including bingeing and altered DA receptor (R numbers within the NAc. Here we examined whether substituting fructose for glucose in this IAM produces bingeing behavior, alters DA Rs and activates hedonic and homeostatic feeding centers. Following long-term (21-day exposure to the IAM, rats given 8-12% fructose solutions displayed fructose bingeing but unaltered DA D1R or D2R number. Fructose bingeing rats, as compared to chow bingeing controls, exhibited reduced NAc shell neuron activation, as determined by c-Fos-immunoreactivity (Fos-IR. This activation was negatively correlated with orexin (Orx neuron activation in the lateral hypothalamus/perifornical area (LH/PeF, a brain region linking homeostatic to hedonic feeding centers. Following short-term (2-day access to the IAM, rats exhibited bingeing but unchanged Fos-IR, suggesting only long-term fructose bingeing increases Orx release. In long-term fructose bingeing rats, pretreatment with the Ox1R antagonist SB-334867 (30 mg/kg; i.p. equally reduced fructose bingeing and chow intake, resulting in a 50% reduction in calories. Similarly, in control rats, SB-334867 reduced chow/caloric intake by 60%. Thus, in the IAM, Ox1Rs appear to regulate feeding based on caloric content rather than palatability. Overall, our results, in combination with the literature, suggest individual monosaccharides activate distinct neuronal circuits to promote feeding behavior

  16. Testing seasonal and long-term controls of streamwater DOC using empirical and process-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futter, Martyn N; de Wit, Heleen A

    2008-12-15

    Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in surface waters are increasing across Europe and parts of North America. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain these increases including reductions in acid deposition, change in frequency of winter storms and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. We used two modelling approaches to identify the mechanisms responsible for changing surface water DOC concentrations. Empirical regression analysis and INCA-C, a process-based model of stream-water DOC, were used to simulate long-term (1986--2003) patterns in stream water DOC concentrations in a small boreal stream. Both modelling approaches successfully simulated seasonal and inter-annual patterns in DOC concentration. In both models, seasonal patterns of DOC concentration were controlled by hydrology and inter-annual patterns were explained by climatic variation. There was a non-linear relationship between warmer summer temperatures and INCA-C predicted DOC. Only the empirical model was able to satisfactorily simulate the observed long-term increase in DOC. The observed long-term trends in DOC are likely to be driven by in-soil processes controlled by SO4(2-) and Cl(-) deposition, and to a lesser extent by temperature-controlled processes. Given the projected changes in climate and deposition, future modelling and experimental research should focus on the possible effects of soil temperature and moisture on organic carbon production, sorption and desorption rates, and chemical controls on organic matter solubility.

  17. Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Kathryn M.; Miller, Scott; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Archer, Erik; Roper, Brett B.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

    2015-01-01

    Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of

  18. Statistical modeling of the Internet traffic dynamics: To which extent do we need long-term correlations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markelov, Oleg; Nguyen Duc, Viet; Bogachev, Mikhail

    2017-11-01

    Recently we have suggested a universal superstatistical model of user access patterns and aggregated network traffic. The model takes into account the irregular character of end user access patterns on the web via the non-exponential distributions of the local access rates, but neglects the long-term correlations between these rates. While the model is accurate for quasi-stationary traffic records, its performance under highly variable and especially non-stationary access dynamics remains questionable. In this paper, using an example of the traffic patterns from a highly loaded network cluster hosting the website of the 1998 FIFA World Cup, we suggest a generalization of the previously suggested superstatistical model by introducing long-term correlations between access rates. Using queueing system simulations, we show explicitly that this generalization is essential for modeling network nodes with highly non-stationary access patterns, where neglecting long-term correlations leads to the underestimation of the empirical average sojourn time by several decades under high throughput utilization.

  19. The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, Kyu Nam

    1995-02-01

    An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

  20. Long-term nitrogen behavior under treated wastewater infiltration basins in a soil-aquifer treatment (SAT) system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mienis, Omer; Arye, Gilboa

    2018-05-01

    The long term behavior of total nitrogen and its components was investigated in a soil aquifer treatment system of the Dan Region Reclamation Project (Shafdan), Tel-Aviv, Israel. Use is made of the previous 40 years' secondary data for the main nitrogen components (ammonium, nitrate and organic nitrogen) in recharged effluent and observation wells located inside an infiltration basin. The wells were drilled to 106 and 67 m, both in a similar position within the basin. The transport characteristics of each nitrogen component were evaluated based on chloride travel-time, calculated by a cross-correlation between its concentration in the recharge effluent and the observation wells. Changes in the source of recharge effluent, wastewater treatment technology and recharge regime were found to be the main factors affecting turnover in total nitrogen and its components. During aerobic operation of the infiltration basins, most organic nitrogen and ammonium will be converted to nitrate. Total nitrogen removal in the upper part of the aquifer was found to be 47-63% by denitrification and absorption, and overall removal, including the lower part of the aquifer, was 49-83%. To maintain the aerobic operation of the infiltration fields, the total nitrogen load should remain below 10 mg/L. Above this limit, ammonium and organic nitrogen will be displaced into the aquifer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. International long-term interim storage for spent fuel. An independent storage service investor model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leister, P.

    1999-01-01

    Thinking globally the obvious world-wide demands for large storage capacities for spent fuel within the next decades and the newly arising demands for long-term interim storage of spent fuel urges to respond by international interim storage facilities of high capacity. Low cost storage can be achieved only by arranging the storage facility underground in a suitable host rock formation and by selecting the geographical are by an international competition under those countries, who are willing to offer their land. The investor and operator of an international storage facility selected and realised by a competition on the free market as well as the country where the storage is built are both bound by two different kinds of contacts. The main contract is between the offering country/region and the independent operator. The independent operator has in addition a series of contracts with various utilities, which are interested to have their spent fuel stored for a longer period

  2. A Gamification Model to Encourage Positive Healthcare Behaviours in Young People with Long Term Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew S. Wilson

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Young people living with long term conditions will eventually have to transfer their care to the adult setting. Failure to plan and coordinate this has been associated with poorer health outcomes and disruption to their care. Transition planning encourages both health literacy and health promoting behaviours in an age and developmentally appropriate way. In order to gauge the attainment of these skills the Birmingham Children’s Hospital Adolescent Rheumatology Team (UK have developed a series of transitional care checklists. This paper focuses on discussing how the application of gamification (using game mechanics in non-game contexts to these checklists could improve the engagement of young people in managing their self-care and provide a mechanism for doctors to quantifying the acquisition of these skills.

  3. Stakeholder opinions on a transformational model of pain management in long-term care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjistavropoulos, Thomas; Janzen Claude, Jennifer A; Hadjistavropoulos, Heather; Marchildon, Gregory P; Kaasalainen, Sharon; Gallagher, Romayne; Beattie, B Lynn

    2011-07-01

    Pain in older adults with dementia who reside in long-term care (LTC) facilities tends to be undertreated, despite important guidelines designed to ameliorate this problem. A group of public policy and geriatric pain experts recently concluded that existing guidelines are not being implemented because they fail to take into account policy and resource realities. The group published a set of more feasible guidelines that confront these realities (e.g., a recommendation for very brief pain assessments that can be conducted by nursing staff at least weekly). We asked stakeholders to provide opinions on the possibility of implementation of these guidelines within their LTC facilities. Our results support the feasibility of, interest in, and desirability of implementation. They also support an increased role for nurse leadership in LTC pain management. These results could be used to strengthen advocacy efforts for improvement in pain management. Copyright 2011, SLACK Incorporated.

  4. Impact of purchasing the CPAP device on acceptance and long-term adherence: a Belgian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leemans, Joke; Rodenstein, Daniel; Bousata, Jamila; Mwenge, Gimbada Benny

    2018-02-01

    In Belgium, patients with moderate to severe OSA (AHI > 20) who show less than 30 micro-arousals per hour slept (MAI) cannot benefit from CPAP refund by the social security (SS). To assess the influence of reimbursement on CPAP acceptance, and long-term adherence. OSA patients (AHI > 20) were included regardless of MAI. All patients were offered a CPAP trial of 3-5 days for habituation. Two groups were defined and compared: «Out of pocket money» patients (OOP) with MAI < 30 that were invited to purchase their device and «reimbursed group» that were offered a CPAP reimbursed by the social security. 812 patients were found: 59 in the OOP group, mostly females, sleepier and using more hypnotics. Out of the reimbursed group, 183 patients were matched to the OOP patients on the grounds of age, AHI and BMI. 90% of OOP and 94% of reimbursed patients (p 0.379) accepted a CPAP trial; 74% of OOP and 90% of reimbursed patients acquired a CPAP device (p 0.005) thereafter, whereas 82% and, respectively, 84% of those (p 0.254) were still on CPAP after a mean follow-up of 711 and 604 days with a mean ± SD daily compliance of 5.3 ± 3 and 6.1 ± 2 h, respectively (p 0.159). Only fatigue scale seems to influence the purchase of CPAP by OOP patients. CPAP reimbursement influences the purchase of CPAP but once the device becomes available there is no difference with reimbursed patients in long-term adherence.

  5. Groundwater modeling for the long-term safety assessment of uranium tailings ponds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nair, R.N.

    2010-01-01

    Uranium tailings ponds contain naturally occurring long lived radionuclides such as 238 U, 234 U, 230 Th and 226 Ra as sources which are the parents of a very long radionuclide decay chain. Uranium tailings ponds by the virtue of the longevity of its contents may pose as a long-term radiological hazard if not designed and monitored properly. The principal radiation risks from uranium tailings are gamma radiation: windblown radioactive dust dispersion; and radon gas and its progenies. Uranium tailings ponds are also a major source of surface and groundwater contamination due to leaching of radioactive and other toxic elements. In many countries, the tailings ponds are designed to control the radiological hazards for up to 1000 years, to the extent achievable, and in any case for at least 200 years. Stringent regulations stipulations exist worldwide for the safe design, operation and closure of uranium tailings ponds. The long- term radiological impact assessment of uranium tailings ponds, hence, is an extremely important exercise in uranium mining industry. The simulations conducted for uranium over a period of 1000 years indicate that contaminant fronts from the source with a paste permeability of 1x10 -4 m/day would migrate a probable distance of less than 50 m. The maximum computed distance for this case is less than 300 m. Indian studies show that the total annual effective dose to members of the public at 1.0 km from the centre of the tailings pond is trivial up to a period of 4000 y. The estimated dose is 0.01 mSv/y after 10,000 years and it is 10 times lower than 0.1 mSv/y, which is considered as a safe dose limit for drinking water pathway. (author)

  6. Modelling the Long Term Leaching Behaviour of 137CS from Different Stabilized Waste Matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Kamash, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Leaching characteristics of ''1''3''7Cs from immobilized waste matrices in different cement-based grouts have been assessed to investigate the influence of the additives on the leaching behavior of the solid waste matrices. The International Atomic Energy's Agency (IAEA) standard leach method has been employed to study the leach pattern of 137 Cs radionuclide from the immobilized waste form. The examination of the leaching data revealed that clay additives reduces the leach rate for the studied radionuclide. The controlling leaching mechanism has been studied and the transport parameters were calculated for all studied waste matrices. Simplified analytical models have been derived to predict the Cumulative Leach Fraction (CLF) of radionuclides over the studied experimental period. These simplified research models could be used as a screening tool to assess the performance of the waste matrix under repository conditions. (author)

  7. A Neuro-fuzzy-stochastic frontier analysis approach for long-term natural gas consumption forecasting and behavior analysis: The cases of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and UAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Asadzadeh, S.M.; Saberi, M.; Nadimi, V.; Tajvidi, A.; Sheikalishahi, M.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper presents a unique approach for long-term natural gas consumption estimation. → It is applied to selected Arab countries to show its superiority and applicability. → It may be used for other real cases for optimum gas consumption estimation. → It is compared with current studies to show its advantages. → It is capable of dealing with complexity, ambiguity, fuzziness, and randomness. -- Abstract: This paper presents an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system-stochastic frontier analysis (ANFIS-SFA) approach for long-term natural gas (NG) consumption prediction and analysis of the behavior of NG consumption. The proposed models consist of input variables of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population (POP). Six distinct models based on different inputs are defined. All of trained ANFIS are then compared with respect to mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). To meet the best performance of the intelligent based approaches, data are pre-processed (scaled) and finally the outputs are post-processed (returned to its original scale). To show the applicability and superiority of the integrated ANFIS-SFA approach, gas consumption in four Middle Eastern countries i.e. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and United Arab Emirates is forecasted and analyzed based on the data of the time period 1980-2007. With the aid of autoregressive model, GDP and population are projected for the period 2008-2015. These projected data are used as the input of ANFIS model to predict the gas consumption in the selected countries for 2008-2015. SFA is then used to examine the behavior of gas consumption in the past and also to make insights for the forthcoming years. The ANFIS-SFA approach is capable of dealing with complexity, uncertainty, and randomness as well as several other unique features discussed in this paper.

  8. Modeling the long-term evolution of the primary damage in ferritic alloys using coarse-grained methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becquart, C.S.; Barbu, A.; Bocquet, J.L.; Caturla, M.J.; Domain, C.; Fu, C.-C.; Golubov, S.I.; Hou, M.; Malerba, L.; Ortiz, C.J.; Souidi, A.; Stoller, R.E.

    2010-01-01

    Knowledge of the long-term evolution of the microstructure after introduction of primary damage is an essential ingredient in understanding mechanical property changes that occur during irradiation. Within the European integrated project 'PERFECT,' different techniques have been developed or improved to model microstructure evolution of Fe alloys under irradiation. This review paper aims to present the current state of the art of these techniques, as developed in the project, as well as the main results obtained.

  9. Tc1 mouse model of trisomy-21 dissociates properties of short- and long-term recognition memory

    OpenAIRE

    Hall, Jessica H.; Wiseman, Frances K.; Fisher, Elizabeth M.C.; Tybulewicz, Victor L.J.; Harwood, John L.; Good, Mark A.

    2016-01-01

    The present study examined memory function in Tc1 mice, a transchromosomic model of Down syndrome (DS). Tc1 mice demonstrated an unusual delay-dependent deficit in recognition memory. More specifically, Tc1 mice showed intact immediate (30sec), impaired short-term (10-min) and intact long-term (24-h) memory for objects. A similar pattern was observed for olfactory stimuli, confirming the generality of the pattern across sensory modalities. The specificity of the behavioural deficits in Tc1 mi...

  10. An Evidence-Based Cue-Selection Guide and Logic Model to Improve Pressure Ulcer Prevention in Long Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap, Tracey L.; Kennerly, Susan M.; Bergstrom, Nancy; Hudak, Sandra L.; Horn, Susan D.

    2015-01-01

    Pressure ulcers (PrUs) have consistently resisted prevention efforts in long term care (LTC) facilities nationwide. Recent research has described cueing innovations that – when selected according to the assumptions and resources of particular facilities – support best practices of PrU prevention. This paper synthesizes that research into a unified, dynamic logic model to facilitate effective staff implementation of a PrU prevention program. PMID:26066791

  11. Client interpersonal impacts as mediators of long-term outcome in cognitive-behavioral therapy integrated with motivational interviewing for generalized anxiety disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantino, Michael J; Romano, Felicia M; Coyne, Alice E; Westra, Henny A; Antony, Martin M

    2017-03-24

    A recent trial of generalized anxiety disorder treatment (Westra, H. A., Constantino, M. J., & Antony, M. M. (2016). Integrating Motivational Interviewing With Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Severe Generalized Anxiety Disorder: An Allegiance-Controlled Randomized Clinical Trial. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 84, 768-782. doi: 10.1037/ccp0000098 ) revealed that cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) integrated with motivational interviewing (MI) outperformed CBT alone across a 12-month follow up. The present study examined whether this treatment effect was mediated by MI-CBT clients engaging over time in during-session interpersonal behaviors reflecting more friendly dominance, or agentic actions, and less friendly submissiveness (FS), or trustingly compliant actions both theory-specific MI mechanisms. Clients received 15 sessions of MI-CBT (n = 42) or CBT alone (n = 43). Therapists rated client interpersonal behavior following five sessions, and clients rated their worry at baseline, each session, and 6- and 12-month follow up. Mediator and outcome variables were derived from multilevel models. Mediation was tested using a bootstrapping procedure. There was a significant indirect effect for FS. As expected, CBT clients evidenced greater increases in FS than MI-CBT clients, which in turn, though unexpectedly, related to lower 12-month worry. However, long-term CBT outcomes remained inferior to MI-CBT outcomes even with CBT clients'greater increase in FS. Results suggest that CBT outcomes are more positive when clients trustingly comply; however, MI-CBT remained superior, but for as yet unexplained reasons. Clinical or methodological significance of this article: The findings highlight the clinical importance of GAD clients becoming more friendly dominant in the therapy relationship irrespective of whether they received CBT or integrative MI-CBT. Moreover, it seems clinically indicated to incorporate MI spirit and techniques into CBT when

  12. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  13. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-01

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

  14. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Månsson, K N T; Frick, A; Boraxbekk, C-J; Marquand, A F; Williams, S C R; Carlbring, P; Andersson, G; Furmark, T

    2015-03-17

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge. This study aimed at assessing neural predictors of long-term treatment outcome in participants with SAD 1 year after completion of Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT). Twenty-six participants diagnosed with SAD underwent iCBT including attention bias modification for a total of 13 weeks. Support vector machines (SVMs), a supervised pattern recognition method allowing predictions at the individual level, were trained to separate long-term treatment responders from nonresponders based on blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses to self-referential criticism. The Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale was the main instrument to determine treatment response at the 1-year follow-up. Results showed that the proportion of long-term responders was 52% (12/23). From multivariate BOLD responses in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) together with the amygdala, we were able to predict long-term response rate of iCBT with an accuracy of 92% (confidence interval 95% 73.2-97.6). This activation pattern was, however, not predictive of improvement in the continuous Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale-Self-report version. Follow-up psychophysiological interaction analyses revealed that lower dACC-amygdala coupling was associated with better long-term treatment response. Thus, BOLD response patterns in the fear-expressing dACC-amygdala regions were highly predictive of long-term treatment outcome of iCBT, and the initial coupling between these regions differentiated long-term responders from nonresponders. The SVM-neuroimaging approach could be of particular clinical value as it allows for accurate prediction of treatment outcome at the level of the individual.

  15. Long-term effects of a single exposure to stress in adult rats on behavior and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal responsiveness: comparison of two outbred rat strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belda, Xavier; Márquez, Cristina; Armario, Antonio

    2004-10-05

    We have previously observed that a single exposure to immobilization (IMO), a severe stressor, caused long-term (days to weeks) desensitization of the response of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis to the homotypic stressor, with no changes in behavioral reactivity to novel environments. In contrast, other laboratories have reported that a single exposure to footshock induced a long-term sensitization of both HPA and behavioral responses to novel environments. To test whether these apparent discrepancies can be explained by the use of different stressors or different strains of rats, we studied in the present work the long-term effects of a single exposure to two different stressors (footshock or IMO) in two different strains of rats (Sprague-Dawley from Iffa-Credo and Wistar rats from Harlan). We found that both strains showed desensitization of the HPA response to the same (homotypic) stressor after a previous exposure to either shock or IMO. The long-term effects were higher after IMO than shock. No major changes in behavior in two novel environments (circular corridor, CC and elevated plus-maze, EPM) were observed after a single exposure to shock or IMO in neither strain, despite the fact that shocked rats showed a conditioned freezing response to the shock boxes. The present results demonstrate that long-term stress-induced desensitization of the HPA axis is a reliable phenomenon that can be observed with different stressors and strains. However, only behavioral changes related to shock-induced conditioned fear were found, which suggests that so far poorly characterized factors are determining the long-term behavioral consequences of a single exposure to stress.

  16. Compromise between Short- and Long-Term Financial Sustainability: A Hybrid Model for Supporting R&D Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kao-Yi Shen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The debate of “short-termism” has gained increasing interests from various fields, ranging from management to economics; it mainly concerns the decisions or actions taken by businesses that might yield short-term returns at the cost of long-term value or sustainability. Previous studies have highlighted this dilemma faced by managers, mainly from the pressure of capital markets or short-sighted shareholders who crave for immediate financial outcomes; intelligent decision aids that can compromise between the short- and long-term financial sustainability, based on a company’s policy, are highly needed. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop a multiple-rule-based hybrid decision model to support management teams on prioritizing new R&D projects, considering the financial prospects in dual timeframes (i.e., short- and long-term for sustainability. Furthermore, in the presence of business uncertainty and the limited knowledge of managers on new projects, the intuitionistic fuzzy technique is incorporated. A case of selecting new R&D projects for an IC design company is illustrated using the proposed approach, and the financial data from a group of public-listed IC stocks from Taiwan are inducted to form the decision model. The findings not only support the IC design company to select new projects but also provide business insights to facilitate the understandings of this controversial issue in managerial practice.

  17. Engineering Circular Gliding of Actin Filaments Along Myosin-Patterned DNA Nanotube Rings To Study Long-Term Actin-Myosin Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariadi, Rizal F; Appukutty, Abhinav J; Sivaramakrishnan, Sivaraj

    2016-09-27

    Nature has evolved molecular motors that are critical in cellular processes occurring over broad time scales, ranging from seconds to years. Despite the importance of the long-term behavior of molecular machines, topics such as enzymatic lifetime are underexplored due to the lack of a suitable approach for monitoring motor activity over long time periods. Here, we developed an "O"-shaped Myosin Empowered Gliding Assay (OMEGA) that utilizes engineered micron-scale DNA nanotube rings with precise arrangements of myosin VI to trap gliding actin filaments. This circular gliding assay platform allows the same individual actin filament to glide over the same myosin ensemble (50-1000 motors per ring) multiple times. First, we systematically characterized the formation of DNA nanotubes rings with 4, 6, 8, and 10 helix circumferences. Individual actin filaments glide along the nanotube rings with high processivity for up to 12.8 revolutions or 11 min in run time. We then show actin gliding speed is robust to variation in motor number and independent of ring curvature within our sample space (ring diameter of 0.5-4 μm). As a model application of OMEGA, we then analyze motor-based mechanical influence on "stop-and-go" gliding behavior of actin filaments, revealing that the stop-to-go transition probability is dependent on motor flexibility. Our circular gliding assay may provide a closed-loop platform for monitoring long-term behavior of broad classes of molecular motors and enable characterization of motor robustness and long time scale nanomechanical processes.

  18. Modeling long-term suspended-sediment export from an undisturbed forest catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Alexander; Francke, Till; Elsenbeer, Helmut

    2013-04-01

    Most estimates of suspended sediment yields from humid, undisturbed, and geologically stable forest environments fall within a range of 5 - 30 t km-2 a-1. These low natural erosion rates in small headwater catchments (≤ 1 km2) support the common impression that a well-developed forest cover prevents surface erosion. Interestingly, those estimates originate exclusively from areas with prevailing vertical hydrological flow paths. Forest environments dominated by (near-) surface flow paths (overland flow, pipe flow, and return flow) and a fast response to rainfall, however, are not an exceptional phenomenon, yet only very few sediment yields have been estimated for these areas. Not surprisingly, even fewer long-term (≥ 10 years) records exist. In this contribution we present our latest research which aims at quantifying long-term suspended-sediment export from an undisturbed rainforest catchment prone to frequent overland flow. A key aspect of our approach is the application of machine-learning techniques (Random Forest, Quantile Regression Forest) which allows not only the handling of non-Gaussian data, non-linear relations between predictors and response, and correlations between predictors, but also the assessment of prediction uncertainty. For the current study we provided the machine-learning algorithms exclusively with information from a high-resolution rainfall time series to reconstruct discharge and suspended sediment dynamics for a 21-year period. The significance of our results is threefold. First, our estimates clearly show that forest cover does not necessarily prevent erosion if wet antecedent conditions and large rainfalls coincide. During these situations, overland flow is widespread and sediment fluxes increase in a non-linear fashion due to the mobilization of new sediment sources. Second, our estimates indicate that annual suspended sediment yields of the undisturbed forest catchment show large fluctuations. Depending on the frequency of large

  19. Development of thermodynamic databases and geochemical/transport models for prediction of long-term radionuclide migration (Germany)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kienzler, B.

    2000-01-01

    The isolation capacity of a repository system for radionuclides is described by geochemical modeling. The models for interpretation of experimental findings and for long-term extrapolation of experimental results are based on thermodynamic approaches. The geochemical models include dissolution reactions of waste forms, the evolution of the geochemical milieu, interactions of radionuclides with constituents of the groundwater (brines) and the precipitation of new solid phases. Reliable thermodynamic data, understanding of radionuclide complexation in aqueous multi-electrolyte solutions at the relevant ionic strength and knowledge on the formation of pure and mixed solids and on sorption processes are urgently needed for such model calculations. (author)

  20. Long-term transfer and expression of the human beta-globin gene in a mouse transplant model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raftopoulos, H; Ward, M; Leboulch, P; Bank, A

    1997-11-01

    Somatic gene therapy of hemoglobinopathies depends initially on the demonstration of safe, efficient gene transfer and long-term, high-level expression of the transferred human beta-globin gene in animal models. We have used a beta-globin gene/beta-locus control region retroviral vector containing several modifications to optimize gene transfer and expression in a mouse transplant model. In this report we show that transplantation of beta-globin-transduced hematopoietic cells into lethally irradiated mice leads to the continued presence of the gene up to 8 months posttransplantation. The transferred human beta-globin gene is detected in 3 of 5 mice surviving long term (>4 months) transplanted with bone marrow cells transduced with high-titer virus. Southern blotting confirms the presence of the unrearranged 5.1-kb human beta-globin gene-containing provirus in 2 of these mice. In addition, long-term expression of the transferred gene is seen in 2 mice at levels of 5% and 20% that of endogenous murine beta-globin at 6 and 8 months posttransplantation. We further document stem cell transduction by the successful transfer and high-level expression of the human beta-globin gene from mice transduced 9 months earlier into irradiated secondary recipient mice. These results demonstrate high-level, long-term somatic human beta-globin gene transfer into the hematopoietic stem cells of an animal for the first time, and suggest the potential feasibility of a retroviral gene therapy approach to sickle cell disease and the beta thalassemias.

  1. Ensemble empirical model decomposition and neuro-fuzzy conjunction model for middle and long-term runoff forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Forecasting the runoff over longer periods, such as months and years, is one of the important tasks for hydrologists and water resource managers to maximize the potential of the limited water. However, due to the nonlinear and nonstationary characteristic of the natural runoff, it is hard to forecast the middle and long-term runoff with a satisfactory accuracy. It has been proven that the forecast performance can be improved by using signal decomposition techniques to product more cleaner signals as model inputs. In this study, a new conjunction model (EEMD-neuro-fuzzy) with adaptive ability is proposed. The ensemble empirical model decomposition (EEMD) is used to decompose the runoff time series into several components, which are with different frequencies and more cleaner than the original time series. Then the neuro-fuzzy model is developed for each component. The final forecast results can be obtained by summing the outputs of all neuro-fuzzy models. Unlike the conventional forecast model, the decomposition and forecast models in this study are adjusted adaptively as long as new runoff information is added. The proposed models are applied to forecast the monthly runoff of Yichang station, located in Yangtze River of China. The results show that the performance of adaptive forecast model we proposed outperforms than the conventional forecast model, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient can reach to 0.9392. Due to its ability to process the nonstationary data, the forecast accuracy, especially in flood season, is improved significantly.

  2. Long-Term Orientation in Trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, G.J.; Jonker, C.M.; Verwaart, D.

    2008-01-01

    Trust does not work in the same way across cultures. This paper presents an agent model of behavior in trade across Hofstedes cultural dimension of long-term vs. short-term orientation. The situation is based on a gaming simulation, the Trust and Tracing game. The paper investigates the

  3. A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jie; Chen, Kuilin; Mori, Junichi; Rashid, Mudassir M.

    2013-01-01

    Optimizing wind power generation and controlling the operation of wind turbines to efficiently harness the renewable wind energy is a challenging task due to the intermittency and unpredictable nature of wind speed, which has significant influence on wind power production. A new approach for long-term wind speed forecasting is developed in this study by integrating GMCM (Gaussian mixture copula model) and localized GPR (Gaussian process regression). The time series of wind speed is first classified into multiple non-Gaussian components through the Gaussian mixture copula model and then Bayesian inference strategy is employed to incorporate the various non-Gaussian components using the posterior probabilities. Further, the localized Gaussian process regression models corresponding to different non-Gaussian components are built to characterize the stochastic uncertainty and non-stationary seasonality of the wind speed data. The various localized GPR models are integrated through the posterior probabilities as the weightings so that a global predictive model is developed for the prediction of wind speed. The proposed GMCM–GPR approach is demonstrated using wind speed data from various wind farm locations and compared against the GMCM-based ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) and SVR (support vector regression) methods. In contrast to GMCM–ARIMA and GMCM–SVR methods, the proposed GMCM–GPR model is able to well characterize the multi-seasonality and uncertainty of wind speed series for accurate long-term prediction. - Highlights: • A novel predictive modeling method is proposed for long-term wind speed forecasting. • Gaussian mixture copula model is estimated to characterize the multi-seasonality. • Localized Gaussian process regression models can deal with the random uncertainty. • Multiple GPR models are integrated through Bayesian inference strategy. • The proposed approach shows higher prediction accuracy and reliability

  4. Chilean model for long-term follow-up of phenylketonuria (PKU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verónica Cornejo

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Chilean newborn screening program began in 1984 through of a covenant between the National Ministry of Health and the Chilean University through its Institute of Nutrition and Food Technology (INTA with the aim of implementing a pilot study for neonatal detection of phenylketonuria (PKU in Santiago’s central area. In 1989 a program for neonatal diagnosis of PKU and congenital hypothyroidism (HC was initiated by INTA along with Santiago´s occidental health ministry rural area, which covered 20% of newborn population. PKU and HC had an incidence of 1:14,640 and 1:2000 living newborns respectively. These findings allowed the establishment of a favorable cost/benefit ratio which validated the implementation of a program with National character. In 1992 the Chilean Ministry of Health ruled the initiation of PKU and HC newborn screening program and by 1998 the coverage across the country was achieved. INTA is the National Reference Center for confirmation and long term treatment for PKU and HC patients. A follow-up program consists of medical, nutritional, neurological and psychological outcome evaluations as well as periodic biochemical testing in order to guarantee normal patient growth and development. To date 184 children have been diagnosed with classic or moderate PKU, all of them follow a strict monitoring program.

  5. Cardiovascular Autonomic Responses in the VCD Rat Model of Menopause: Effects of Short- and Long-Term Ovarian Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Domitila A; Bazilio, Darlan; Lorenzon, Flaviano; Sehnem, Sibele; Pacheco, Lucas; Anselmo-Franci, Janete A; Lima, Fernanda B

    2017-01-01

    After menopause, hypertension elevates the risk of cardiac diseases, one of the major causes of women's morbidity. The gradual depletion of ovarian follicles in rats, induced by 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide (VCD), is a model for studying the physiology of menopause. 4-Vinylcyclohexene diepoxide treatment leads to early ovarian failure (OF) and a hormonal profile comparable to menopause in humans. We have hypothesized that OF can compromise the balance between sympathetic and parasympathetic tones of the cardiovascular system, shifting toward dominance of the former. We aimed to study the autonomic modulation of heart and blood vessels and the cardiovascular reflexes in rats presenting short-term (80 days) or long-term (180 days) OF induced by VCD. Twenty-eight-day-old Wistar rats were submitted to VCD treatment (160 mg/kg, intraperitoneally) or vehicle (control) for 15 consecutive days and experiments were conducted at 80 or 180 days after the onset of treatment. Long-term OF led to an increase in the sympathetic activity to blood vessels and an impairment in the baroreflex control of the heart, evoked by physiological changes in arterial pressure. Despite that, long-term OF did not cause hypertension during the 180 days of exposure. Short-term OF did not cause any deleterious effect on the cardiovascular parameters analyzed. These data indicate that long-term OF does not disrupt the maintenance of arterial pressure homeostasis in rats but worsens the autonomic cardiovascular control. In turn, this can lead to cardiovascular complications, especially when associated with the aging process seen during human menopause.

  6. Long-term spatial memory in Vespula germanica social wasps: the influence of past experience on foraging behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreyra, Sabrina; D'Adamo, Paola; Lozada, Mariana

    2017-10-01

    Social insects exhibit complex learning and memory mechanisms while foraging. Vespula germanica (Fab.) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) is an invasive social wasp that frequently forages on undepleted food sources, making several flights between the resource and the nest. Previous studies have shown that during this relocating behavior, wasps learn to associate food with a certain site, and can recall this association 1 h later. In this work, we evaluated whether this wasp species is capable of retrieving an established association after 24 h. For this purpose, we trained free flying individuals to collect proteinaceous food from an experimental plate (feeder) located in an experimental array. A total of 150 individuals were allowed 2, 4, or 8 visits. After the training phase, the array was removed and set up again 24 h later, but this time a second baited plate was placed opposite to the first. After 24 h we recorded the rate of wasps that returned to the experimental area and those which collected food from the previously learned feeding station or the nonlearned one. During the testing phase, we observed that a low rate of wasps trained with 2 collecting visits returned to the experimental area (22%), whereas the rate of returning wasps trained with 4 or 8 collecting visits was higher (51% and 41%, respectively). Moreover, wasps trained with 8 feeding visits collected food from the previously learned feeding station at a higher rate than those that did from the nonlearned one. In contrast, wasps trained 2 or 4 times chose both feeding stations at a similar rate. Thus, significantly more wasps returned to the previously learned feeding station after 8 repeated foraging flights but not after only 2 or 4 visits. This is the first report that demonstrates the existence of long-term spatial memory in V. germanica wasps. © 2016 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  7. Single whole-body exposure to sarin vapor in rats: Long-term neuronal and behavioral deficits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grauer, Ettie; Chapman, Shira; Rabinovitz, Ishai; Raveh, Lily; Weissman, Ben-Avi; Kadar, Tamar; Allon, Nahum

    2008-01-01

    Freely moving rats were exposed to sarin vapor (34.2 ± 0.8 μg/l) for 10 min. Mortality at 24 h was 35% and toxic sings in the surviving rats ranged from sever (prolonged convulsions) through moderate to almost no overt signs. Some of the surviving rats developed delayed, intermittent convulsions. All rats were evaluated for long-term functional deficits in comparison to air-exposed control rats. Histological analysis revealed typical cell loss at 1 week post inhalation exposure. Neuronal inflammation was demonstrated by a 20-fold increase in prostaglandin (PGE 2 ) levels 24 h following exposure that markedly decreased 6 days later. An additional, delayed increase in PGE 2 was detected at 1 month and continued to increase for up to 6 months post exposure. Glial activation following neural damage was demonstrated by an elevated level of peripheral benzodiazepine receptors (PBR) seen in the brain 4 and 6 months after exposure. At the same time muscarinic receptors were unaffected. Six weeks, four and six months post exposure behavioral evaluations were performed. In the open field, sarin-exposed rats showed a significant increase in overall activity with no habituation over days. In a working memory paradigm in the water maze, these same rats showed impaired working and reference memory processes with no recovery. Our data suggest long lasting impairment of brain functions in surviving rats following a single sarin exposure. Animals that seem to fully recover from the exposure, and even animals that initially show no toxicity signs, developed some adverse neural changes with time

  8. Long-term Simulation of Photo-oxidants and Particulate Matter Over Europe With The Eurad Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memmesheimer, M.; Friese, E.; Jakobs, H. J.; Feldmann, H.; Ebel, A.; Kerschgens, M. J.

    During recent years the interest in long-term applications of air pollution modeling systems (AQMS) has strongly increased. Most of these models have been developed for the application to photo-oxidant episodes during the last decade. In this contribu- tion a long-term application of the EURAD modeling sytem to the year 1997 is pre- sented. Atmospheric particles are included using the Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe (MADE). Meteorological fields are simulated by the mesoscale meteoro- logical model MM5, gas-phase chemistry has been treated with the RACM mecha- nism. The nesting option is used to zoom in areas of specific interest. Horizontal grid sizes are 125 km for the reginal scale, and 5 km for the local scale covering the area of North-Rhine-Westfalia (NRW). The results have been compared to observations of the air quality network of the environmental agency of NRW for the year 1997. The model results have been evaluated using the data quality objectives of the EU direc- tive 99/30. Further improvement for application of regional-scale air quality models is needed with respect to emission data bases, coupling to global models to improve the boundary values, interaction between aerosols and clouds and multiphase modeling.

  9. Cement Waste Matrix Evaluation and Modelling of the Long Term Stability of Cementitious Waste Matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martensson, P.; Cronstrand, P.

    2013-01-01

    Cement based materials are often used as a solidification matrix for wet radioactive waste from nuclear power plants such as ion exchange resins, sludge and evaporator concentrates. The mechanical and chemical properties of the cement-waste matrix are affected by the type and the concentration of the waste. For this reason the recipe used in the solidification process has to be carefully adjusted to respond to the variations of the waste. At the Ringhals Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) an evaporator was to be taken into operation during the mid 2005. As a result of this process an evaporator concentrate containing boric acid was expected. The aims of the present study were to develop a recipe for the solidification of artificial evaporator concentrates, (AEC), containing H 3 BO 3 and measure the compressive strength of the waste/cement matrix over a period of 4 years. The confirmation of the previously reported retarding properties of H 3 BO 3 and the studies of AEC without H 3 BO 3 were also included as a part of this work. Finally, thermodynamic calculations were used as a tool in order to predict the evolution of the mineralogy and integrity for the different cement-waste specimens over very long periods of time, i.e. up to about 100 000 years. The most important finding was that when an optimized waste/cement matrix recipe was used the compressive strength increased during the entire 4 year period and no signs of degradation were noticed. It was also found that the long-term performance of the waste matrices is to a large extent site-specific. In general, the composition of the infiltrating water is more influential than the waste matrices, both on the degradation of the waste matrices itself as well as on the engineered barriers. (author)

  10. Eleventh interim status report: Model 9975 O-Ring fixture long-term leak performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daugherty, W. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-08-01

    A series of experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton® GLT O-rings used in the Model 9975 package has been ongoing since 2004 at the Savannah River National Laboratory. One approach has been to periodically evaluate the leak performance of O-rings being aged in mock-up 9975 Primary Containment Vessels (PCVs) at elevated temperature. Other methods such as compression-stress relaxation (CSR) tests and field surveillance are also on-going to evaluate O-ring behavior. Seventy tests using PCV mock-ups were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 ºF. They were leak-tested initially and have been tested periodically to determine if they continue to meet the leak-tightness criterion defined in ANSI standard N14.5-97. Due to material substitution, fourteen additional tests were initiated in 2008 with GLT-S O-rings heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 ºF.

  11. Long Term Association of Tropospheric Trace gases over Pakistan by exploiting satellite observations and development of Econometric Regression based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeb, Naila; Fahim Khokhar, Muhammad; Khan, Saud Ahmed; Noreen, Asma; Murtaza, Rabbia

    2017-04-01

    . Furthermore to explore causal relation, regression analysis is employed to estimate model for CO and TOC. This model numerically estimated the long term association of trace gases over the region.

  12. Preventive Intervention for Preschoolers at High Risk for Antisocial Behavior: Long-Term Effects on Child Physical Aggression and Parenting Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotman, Laurie Miller; Gouley, Kathleen Kiely; Huang, Keng-Yen; Rosenfelt, Amanda; O'Neal, Colleen; Klein, Rachel G.; Shrout, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    This article presents long-term effects of a preventive intervention for young children at high risk for antisocial behavior. Ninety-two children (M age = 4 years) were randomly assigned to an 8-month family intervention or no-intervention control condition and assessed 4 times over a 24-month period. Intent-to-treat analyses revealed significant…

  13. Predicting long-term outcome of Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy for social anxiety disorder using fMRI and support vector machine learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mansson, K.N.T.; Frick, A.; Boraxbekk, C.J.; Marquand, A.F.; Williams, S.C.; Carlbring, P.; Andersson, G.; Furmark, T.

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for social anxiety disorder (SAD), but many patients do not respond sufficiently and a substantial proportion relapse after treatment has ended. Predicting an individual's long-term clinical response therefore remains an important challenge.

  14. Developments in long-term explicit memory late in the first year of life: behavioral and electrophysiological indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Patricia J; Wiebe, Sandra A; Carver, Leslie J; Waters, Jennie M; Nelson, Charles A

    2003-11-01

    Coincident with developments in the temporal-cortical explicit memory network, long-term recall abilities are newly emergent late in the first year of human life. We recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) in 9-month-olds as an index of the integrity of the neural substrate underlying a task thought to reflect explicit memory, namely, deferred imitation. ERP measures of recognition memory 1 week after unique laboratory experiences predicted whether and how much infants recalled of the experiences 1 month later. The findings further imply that memory storage and consolidation processes are a major source of variability in long-term recall memory late in the first year of life.

  15. Long term stability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

  16. Modeling and Simulation of Long-Term Performance of Near-Surface Barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S. J.; Jacobson, J. J.; Martian, P.; Martineau, R.; Soto, R.

    2003-01-01

    INEEL started a new project on long-term barrier integrity in April 2002 that aims to catalyze a Barrier Improvement Cycle (iterative learning and application) and thus enable Remediation System Performance Management (doing the right maintenance neither too early nor too late, prior to system-level failure). This paper describes our computer simulation approach for better understanding the relationships and dynamics between the various components and management decisions in a cap. The simulation is designed to clarify the complex relationships between the various components within the cap system and the various management practices that affect the barrier performance. We have also conceptualized a time-dependent 3-D simulation with rigorous solution to unsaturated flow physics with complex surface boundary conditions

  17. LOSCAR: Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir Model v2.0.4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Zeebe

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The LOSCAR model is designed to efficiently compute the partitioning of carbon between ocean, atmosphere, and sediments on time scales ranging from centuries to millions of years. While a variety of computationally inexpensive carbon cycle models are already available, many are missing a critical sediment component, which is indispensable for long-term integrations. One of LOSCAR's strengths is the coupling of ocean-atmosphere routines to a computationally efficient sediment module. This allows, for instance, adequate computation of CaCO3 dissolution, calcite compensation, and long-term carbon cycle fluxes, including weathering of carbonate and silicate rocks. The ocean component includes various biogeochemical tracers such as total carbon, alkalinity, phosphate, oxygen, and stable carbon isotopes. LOSCAR's configuration of ocean geometry is flexible and allows for easy switching between modern and paleo-versions. We have previously published applications of the model tackling future projections of ocean chemistry and weathering, pCO2 sensitivity to carbon cycle perturbations throughout the Cenozoic, and carbon/calcium cycling during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. The focus of the present contribution is the detailed description of the model including numerical architecture, processes and parameterizations, tuning, and examples of input and output. Typical CPU integration times of LOSCAR are of order seconds for several thousand model years on current standard desktop machines. The LOSCAR source code in C can be obtained from the author by sending a request to loscar.model@gmail.com.

  18. Improving simulated long-term responses of vegetation to temperature and precipitation extremes using the ACME land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciuto, D. M.; Warren, J.; Guha, A.

    2017-12-01

    While carbon and energy fluxes in current Earth system models generally have reasonable instantaneous responses to extreme temperature and precipitation events, they often do not adequately represent the long-term impacts of these events. For example, simulated net primary productivity (NPP) may decrease during an extreme heat wave or drought, but may recover rapidly to pre-event levels following the conclusion of the extreme event. However, field measurements indicate that long-lasting damage to leaves and other plant components often occur, potentially affecting the carbon and energy balance for months after the extreme event. The duration and frequency of such extreme conditions is likely to shift in the future, and therefore it is critical for Earth system models to better represent these processes for more accurate predictions of future vegetation productivity and land-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we modify the structure of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) land surface model to represent long-term impacts and test the improved model against observations from experiments that applied extreme conditions in growth chambers. Additionally, we test the model against eddy covariance measurements that followed extreme conditions at selected locations in North America, and against satellite-measured vegetation indices following regional extreme events.

  19. Multiple Drug Treatments That Increase cAMP Signaling Restore Long-Term Memory and Aberrant Signaling in Fragile X Syndrome Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Catherine H.; Schoenfeld, Brian P.; Bell, Aaron J.; Hinchey, Joseph; Rosenfelt, Cory; Gertner, Michael J.; Campbell, Sean R.; Emerson, Danielle; Hinchey, Paul; Kollaros, Maria; Ferrick, Neal J.; Chambers, Daniel B.; Langer, Steven; Sust, Steven; Malik, Aatika; Terlizzi, Allison M.; Liebelt, David A.; Ferreiro, David; Sharma, Ali; Koenigsberg, Eric; Choi, Richard J.; Louneva, Natalia; Arnold, Steven E.; Featherstone, Robert E.; Siegel, Steven J.; Zukin, R. Suzanne; McDonald, Thomas V.; Bolduc, Francois V.; Jongens, Thomas A.; McBride, Sean M. J.

    2016-01-01

    Fragile X is the most common monogenic disorder associated with intellectual disability (ID) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Additionally, many patients are afflicted with executive dysfunction, ADHD, seizure disorder and sleep disturbances. Fragile X is caused by loss of FMRP expression, which is encoded by the FMR1 gene. Both the fly and mouse models of fragile X are also based on having no functional protein expression of their respective FMR1 homologs. The fly model displays well defined cognitive impairments and structural brain defects and the mouse model, although having subtle behavioral defects, has robust electrophysiological phenotypes and provides a tool to do extensive biochemical analysis of select brain regions. Decreased cAMP signaling has been observed in samples from the fly and mouse models of fragile X as well as in samples derived from human patients. Indeed, we have previously demonstrated that strategies that increase cAMP signaling can rescue short term memory in the fly model and restore DHPG induced mGluR mediated long term depression (LTD) in the hippocampus to proper levels in the mouse model (McBride et al., 2005; Choi et al., 2011, 2015). Here, we demonstrate that the same three strategies used previously with the potential to be used clinically, lithium treatment, PDE-4 inhibitor treatment or mGluR antagonist treatment can rescue long term memory in the fly model and alter the cAMP signaling pathway in the hippocampus of the mouse model. PMID:27445731

  20. Modelling cadmium contamination in paddy soils under long-term remediation measures: Model development and stochastic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping

    2016-09-01

    A pollutant accumulation model (PAM) based on the mass balance theory was developed to simulate long-term changes of heavy metal concentrations in soil. When combined with Monte Carlo simulation, the model can predict the probability distributions of heavy metals in a soil-water-plant system with fluctuating environmental parameters and inputs from multiple pathways. The model was used for evaluating different remediation measures to deal with Cd contamination of paddy soils in Youxian county (Hunan province), China, under five scenarios, namely the default scenario (A), not returning paddy straw to the soil (B), reducing the deposition of Cd (C), liming (D), and integrating several remediation measures (E). The model predicted that the Cd contents of soil can lowered significantly by (B) and those of the plants by (D). However, in the long run, (D) will increase soil Cd. The concentrations of Cd in both soils and rice grains can be effectively reduced by (E), although it will take decades of effort. The history of Cd pollution and the major causes of Cd accumulation in soil were studied by means of sensitivity analysis and retrospective simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Synaptic long-term potentiation realized in Pavlov's dog model based on a NiOx-based memristor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, S. G.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Chen, T. P.; Yu, Q.; Deng, L. J.; Yin, Y.; Hosaka, Sumio

    2014-12-01

    Synaptic Long-Term Potentiation (LTP), which is a long-lasting enhancement in signal transmission between neurons, is widely considered as the major cellular mechanism during learning and memorization. In this work, a NiOx-based memristor is found to be able to emulate the synaptic LTP. Electrical conductance of the memristor is increased by electrical pulse stimulation and then spontaneously decays towards its initial state, which resembles the synaptic LTP. The lasting time of the LTP in the memristor can be estimated with the relaxation equation, which well describes the conductance decay behavior. The LTP effect of the memristor has a dependence on the stimulation parameters, including pulse height, width, interval, and number of pulses. An artificial network consisting of three neurons and two synapses is constructed to demonstrate the associative learning and LTP behavior in extinction of association in Pavlov's dog experiment.

  2. Automatic mental heath assistant : monitoring and measuring nonverbal behavior of the crew during long-term missions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voynarovskaya, N.; Gorbunov, R.D.; Barakova, E.I.; Rauterberg, G.W.M.; Barakova, E.I.; Ruyter, B.; Spink, A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a method for monitoring the mental state of small isolated crews during long-term missions (such as space mission, polar expeditions, submarine crews, meteorological stations, and etc.) The research is done as a part of Automatic Mental Health Assistant (AMHA) project which aims

  3. Long-Term Outcomes of Cognitive-Behavioral Treatments for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder among Female Rape Survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resick, Patricia A.; Williams, Lauren F.; Suvak, Michael K.; Monson, Candice M.; Gradus, Jaimie L.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: We conducted a long-term follow-up (LTFU) assessment of participants from a randomized controlled trial comparing cognitive processing therapy (CPT) with prolonged exposure (PE) for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Competing hypotheses for positive outcomes (i.e., additional therapy, medication) were examined. Method:…

  4. Long-term Exon Skipping Studies With 2′-O-Methyl Phosphorothioate Antisense Oligonucleotides in Dystrophic Mouse Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christa L Tanganyika-de Winter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Antisense-mediated exon skipping for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD is currently tested in phase 3 clinical trials. The aim of this approach is to modulate splicing by skipping a specific exon to reframe disrupted dystrophin transcripts, allowing the synthesis of a partly functional dystrophin protein. Studies in animal models allow detailed analysis of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profile of antisense oligonucleotides (AONs. Here, we tested the safety and efficacy of subcutaneously administered 2′-O-methyl phosphorothioate AON at 200 mg/kg/week for up to 6 months in mouse models with varying levels of disease severity: mdx mice (mild phenotype and mdx mice with one utrophin allele (mdx/utrn+/−; more severe phenotype. Long-term treatment was well tolerated and exon skipping and dystrophin restoration confirmed for all animals. Notably, in the more severely affected mdx/utrn+/− mice the therapeutic effect was larger: creatine kinase (CK levels were more decreased and rotarod running time was more increased. This suggests that the mdx/utrn+/− model may be a more suitable model to test potential therapies than the regular mdx mouse. Our results also indicate that long-term subcutaneous treatment in dystrophic mouse models with these AONs is safe and beneficial.

  5. Development of a Watershed-Scale Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment Model with the Asymptotic Curve Number Regression Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jichul Ryu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, 52 asymptotic Curve Number (CN regression equations were developed for combinations of representative land covers and hydrologic soil groups. In addition, to overcome the limitations of the original Long-term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA model when it is applied to larger watersheds, a watershed-scale L-THIA Asymptotic CN (ACN regression equation model (watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was developed by integrating the asymptotic CN regressions and various modules for direct runoff/baseflow/channel routing. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model was applied to four watersheds in South Korea to evaluate the accuracy of its streamflow prediction. The coefficient of determination (R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE values for observed versus simulated streamflows over intervals of eight days were greater than 0.6 for all four of the watersheds. The watershed-scale L-THIA ACN model, including the asymptotic CN regression equation method, can simulate long-term streamflow sufficiently well with the ten parameters that have been added for the characterization of streamflow.

  6. Induction of chronic kidney failure in a long-term peritoneal exposure model in the rat: effects on functional and structural peritoneal alterations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrtovsnik, François; Coester, Annemieke M.; Lopes-Barreto, Deirisa; de Waart, Dirk R.; van der Wal, Allard C.; Struijk, Dirk G.; Krediet, Raymond T.; Zweers, Machteld M.

    2010-01-01

    A long-term peritoneal exposure model has been developed in Wistar rats. Chronic daily exposure to 3.86% glucose based, lactate buffered, conventional dialysis solutions is possible for up to 20 weeks and induces morphological abnormalities similar to those in long-term peritoneal dialysis (PD)

  7. FY2017 status report: Model 9975 O-ring fixture long-term leak performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daugherty, W. L. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-07-27

    A series of experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton® GLT and GLT-S O-rings used in the Model 9975 shipping package has been ongoing since 2004 at the Savannah River National Laboratory. One approach has been to periodically evaluate the leak performance of O-rings being aged in mock-up 9975 Primary Containment Vessels (PCVs) at elevated temperature. Other methods such as compression-stress relaxation (CSR) tests and field surveillance are also on-going to evaluate O-ring behavior. Seventy tests using PCV mock-ups with GLT O-rings were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 ºF. They were leak-tested initially and have been tested periodically to determine if they continue to meet the leak-tightness criterion defined in ANSI standard N14.5-97. Due to material substitution, a smaller test matrix with fourteen additional tests was initiated in 2008 with GLT-S O-rings heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 ºF. Leak test failures have been experienced in all of the GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 350 ºF and higher temperatures, and in 8 fixtures aging at 300 ºF. The 300 °F GLT O-ring fixtures failed after 2.8 to 5.7 years at temperature. The remaining GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 300 ºF were retired from testing following more than 5 years at temperature without failure. No failures have yet been observed in GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 200 ºF for 9 to 10.5 years, or in GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 270 ºF for 5.7 years. These aging temperatures bound O-ring temperatures anticipated during normal storage in K-Area Complex (KAC). Leak test failures have been experienced in all of the GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 300 ºF and above. No failures have yet been observed in GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 200 and 250 ºF for 6.9 to 7.5 years. Data from the O-ring fixtures are generally consistent with results from compression stress relaxation testing, and provide confidence in the predictive models based on those results

  8. An improved non-Markovian degradation model with long-term dependency and item-to-item uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Xiaopeng; Chen, Maoyin; Zhang, Hanwen; Zhou, Donghua

    2018-05-01

    It is widely noted in the literature that the degradation should be simplified into a memoryless Markovian process for the purpose of predicting the remaining useful life (RUL). However, there actually exists the long-term dependency in the degradation processes of some industrial systems, including electromechanical equipments, oil tankers, and large blast furnaces. This implies the new degradation state depends not only on the current state, but also on the historical states. Such dynamic systems cannot be accurately described by traditional Markovian models. Here we present an improved non-Markovian degradation model with both the long-term dependency and the item-to-item uncertainty. As a typical non-stationary process with dependent increments, fractional Brownian motion (FBM) is utilized to simulate the fractal diffusion of practical degradations. The uncertainty among multiple items can be represented by a random variable of the drift. Based on this model, the unknown parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm, while a closed-form solution to the RUL distribution is further derived using a weak convergence theorem. The practicability of the proposed model is fully verified by two real-world examples. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively reduce the prediction error.

  9. Impact of sleep, fatigue, and systemic inflammation on neurocognitive and behavioral outcomes in long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Yin Ting; Brinkman, Tara M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Mzayek, Yasmin; Liu, Wei; Banerjee, Pia; Panoskaltsis-Mortari, Angela; Srivastava, Deokumar; Pui, Ching-Hon; Robison, Leslie L; Hudson, Melissa M; Krull, Kevin R

    2017-09-01

    Long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are at risk for neurocognitive impairment, which may be associated with fatigue, sleep problems, systemic inflammation, and oxidative stress. We examined these associations among survivors of childhood ALL treated with chemotherapy only. Survivors of childhood ALL (male, n = 35 and female, n = 35; mean age, 14.3 years [standard deviation, 4.7 years] and mean years from diagnosis, 7.4 years [standard deviation, 1.9 years]) completed neurocognitive testing, behavioral ratings, and reported sleep quality and fatigue symptoms 5 years after diagnosis. Serum was collected concurrently and assayed for interleukin (IL)-1β and IL-6, tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), malondialdehyde, myeloperoxidase, and oxidized low-density lipoprotein. General linear modeling was used to assess associations among biomarkers and functional outcomes, adjusting for age and stratified by sex. Survivors performed worse than population norms on executive function and processing speed and reported more behavioral problems (P fatigue was associated with poor executive function (r = 0.41; P = .02), processing speed (r = 0.56; P fatigue measures were observed. Neurocognitive function in female survivors of childhood ALL appears more susceptible to the effects of sleep disturbance and fatigue. Systemic inflammation may play a role in neurocognitive impairment and behavioral symptoms. Cancer 2017;123:3410-9. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  10. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  11. An optical model for implementing Parrondo’s game and designing stochastic game with long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Si Tieyan

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Using a photon propagating through a designed array of beam splitters to simulate Parrondo’s game paradox. ► Design the optical flowchart for implementing Parrondo history-dependent game paradox. ► Design new game with long-term memory on a designed tree lattice and loop lattice. - Abstract: An optical model for a photon propagating through a designed array of beam splitters is developed to give a physical implementation of Parrondo’s game and Parrondo’s history-dependent game. The winner in this optical model is a photon passed the beam splitter. The loser is a photon being reflected by the beam splitter. The optical beam splitter is the coin-tosser. We designed new games with long-term memory by using this optical diagram method. The optical output of the combined game of two losing games could be a win, or a loss, or an oscillation between win and loss. The modern technology to implement this optical model is well developed. A circularly polarized photon is a possible candidate for this physical implementation in laboratory.

  12. A model for the development of virtual communities for people with long-term, severe physical disabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.M. Tilley

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This paper reports results of an investigation into the needs of persons with disabilities wanting to participate in the use of virtual communities. The aim was to investigate 'how virtual communities for persons with long-term, severe physical disabilities can best be facilitated'? Method. A Grounded Theory approach was adopted to inform the investigation. In- depth interviews were conducted with twelve persons with paraplegia, quadriplegia or other severe, long-term physical or mobility disabilities and six health care professionals, service providers, information personnel and policy advisers who were involved in their well-being. Analysis. Rich explanations were derived about the information and communication technology (ICT usage and the technologies' contributions towards restoration of sense of control over their lives. Results. The primary outcome of the investigation is a theory regarding the character of virtual communities for the disabled. The theory is represented as a Virtual Community Model. The model identifies: the need for 'a sense of control' as the foundation element of virtual communities for the disabled; the key domains in which disabled people participate in virtual communities; and the barriers and enablers to their participation. Conclusion. The model provides a framework which can be used by interest groups and other organizations to facilitate the development of virtual communities for persons with severe physical disabilities. The six key types of community need to be represented in such virtual communities if a full 'sense of control' is to be achieved by disabled persons.

  13. Modelling dynamic transport and adsorption of arsenic in soil-bed filters for long-term performance evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Sourav; Mondal, Raka; de, Sirshendu; Griffiths, Ian

    2017-11-01

    Purification of contaminated water following the safe water guidelines while generating sufficiently large throughput is a crucial requirement for the steady supply of safe water to large populations. Adsorption-based filtration processes using a multilayer soil bed has been posed as a viable method to achieve this goal. This work describes the theory of operation and prediction of the long-term behaviour of such a system. The fixed-bed column has a single input of contaminated water from the top and an output from the bottom. As the contaminant passes through the column, it is adsorbed by the medium. Like any other adsorption medium, the filter has a certain lifespan, beyond which the filtrate does not meet the safe limit of drinking water, which is defined as `breakthrough'. A mathematical model is developed that couples the fluid flow through the porous medium to the convective, diffusive and adsorptive transport of the contaminant. The results are validated with experimental observations and the model is then used to predict the breakthrough and lifetime of the filter. The key advantage of this model is that it can predict the long-term behaviour of any adsorption column system for any set of physical characteristics of the system. This worked was supported by the EPSRC Global Challenge Research Fund Institutional Sponsorship 2016.

  14. The Steady State Great Ape? Long Term Isotopic Records Reveal the Effects of Season, Social Rank and Reproductive Status on Bonobo Feeding Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelze, Vicky M.; Douglas, Pamela Heidi; Stephens, Colleen R.; Surbeck, Martin; Behringer, Verena; Richards, Michael P.; Fruth, Barbara; Hohmann, Gottfried

    2016-01-01

    Dietary ecology of extant great apes is known to respond to environmental conditions such as climate and food availability, but also to vary depending on social status and life history characteristics. Bonobos (Pan paniscus) live under comparatively steady ecological conditions in the evergreen rainforests of the Congo Basin. Bonobos are an ideal species for investigating influences of sociodemographic and physiological factors, such as female reproductive status, on diet. We investigate the long term dietary pattern in wild but fully habituated bonobos by stable isotope analysis in hair and integrating a variety of long-term sociodemographic information obtained through observations. We analyzed carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in 432 hair sections obtained from 101 non-invasively collected hair samples. These samples represented the dietary behavior of 23 adult bonobos from 2008 through 2010. By including isotope and crude protein data from plants we could establish an isotope baseline and interpret the results of several general linear mixed models using the predictors climate, sex, social rank, reproductive state of females, adult age and age of infants. We found that low canopy foliage is a useful isotopic tracer for tropical rainforest settings, and consumption of terrestrial herbs best explains the temporal isotope patterns we found in carbon isotope values of bonobo hair. Only the diet of male bonobos was affected by social rank, with lower nitrogen isotope values in low-ranking young males. Female isotope values mainly differed between different stages of reproduction (cycling, pregnancy, lactation). These isotopic differences appear to be related to changes in dietary preference during pregnancy (high protein diet) and lactation (high energy diet), which allow to compensate for different nutritional needs during maternal investment. PMID:27626279

  15. Marine and Coastal Morphology: medium term and long-term area modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Sten Esbjørn

    This thesis documents development and application of a modelling concept developed in collaboration between DTU and DHI. The modelling concept is used in morphological modelling in coastal areas where the governing sediment transport processes are due to wave action. The modelling concept...... is defined: Hybrid morphological modelling and it is based on coupling calculated sediment transport fields from a traditional process based coastal area model with a parametrised morphological evolution model. The focus of this study is to explore possible parametric formulations of the morphological...... solution has a two dimensional nature. 1.5D shoreline model A so-called “1.5D” implementation which introduces redistribution of sediment within a coastal profile in response to horizontal 2D currents makes it possible to simulate the morphological development in areas where 2D evolution occurs...

  16. Development of a long term macro econometric model for strategic analysis and cost assessments in nuclear R and D fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi; Yamazaki, Shigeki.

    1985-11-01

    A Long Term Macro Econometric Model (LTMEMO) has been developed for the purpose of generating economic scenarios for strategic analysis and for cost assessments of technologies in the field of nuclear research and development. The program system of the model is composed of such sub-programs as related social and economic statistic data base and its treatment program, identification and estimation programs of various econometric functions, simulation programs for future projections, and a reference econometric model program. The reference econometric model in the program system would be improved and modified easily by using data base and other sub-programs as the purpose of data retrieval, application of economic hypothesis, and scenario generation. The reference model belongs to a category of such standard types as macro-econometric, deterministic, and descriptive one, however, it was deviated based on the combination of Keynesian theories and Neo-classical theories and was modified by system engineering aspects. The model obtained good performances in such various econometric tests as statistical examinations in parameter estimation of each functions and so called partial tests, total tests, and final tests. Macro economic scenarios α and β, long term projections through 2030 of macro economy in our country were evaluated appropriately by this model. This report describes the process in the development of the model from needs of econometric model in nuclear fields to examples of economic scenarios generated by this model. Some consideration are taken into descriptions on the deviation of each functions and on the application of economic theories for practical use of this program system at the time of modification and improvements of the reference model. (author)

  17. A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

  18. Long-term modelling of Carbon Capture and Storage, Nuclear Fusion, and large-scale District Heating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Korsholm, Søren Bang; Lüthje, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    before 2050. The modelling tools developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Implementing Agreement ETSAP include both multi-regional global and long-term energy models till 2100, as well as national or regional models with shorter time horizons. Examples are the EFDA-TIMES model, focusing...... on nuclear fusion and the Pan European TIMES model, respectively. In the next decades CCS can be a driver for the development and expansion of large-scale district heating systems, which are currently widespread in Europe, Korea and China, and with large potentials in North America. If fusion will replace...... fossil fuel power plants with CCS in the second half of the century, the same infrastructure for heat distribution can be used which will support the penetration of both technologies. This paper will address the issue of infrastructure development and the use of CCS and fusion technologies using...

  19. Predicting long-term catchment nutrient export: the use of nonlinear time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Peter; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Szolgay, Jan; Komornikova, Magda

    2010-05-01

    After the Second World War the nitrate concentrations in European water bodies changed significantly as the result of increased nitrogen fertilizer use and changes in land use. However, in the last decades, as a consequence of the implementation of nitrate-reducing measures in Europe, the nitrate concentrations in water bodies slowly decrease. This causes that the mean and variance of the observed time series also changes with time (nonstationarity and heteroscedascity). In order to detect changes and properly describe the behaviour of such time series by time series analysis, linear models (such as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and autoregressive moving average models (ARMA)), are no more suitable. Time series with sudden changes in statistical characteristics can cause various problems in the calibration of traditional water quality models and thus give biased predictions. Proper statistical analysis of these non-stationary and heteroscedastic time series with the aim of detecting and subsequently explaining the variations in their statistical characteristics requires the use of nonlinear time series models. This information can be then used to improve the model building and calibration of conceptual water quality model or to select right calibration periods in order to produce reliable predictions. The objective of this contribution is to analyze two long time series of nitrate concentrations of the rivers Ouse and Stour with advanced nonlinear statistical modelling techniques and compare their performance with traditional linear models of the ARMA class in order to identify changes in the time series characteristics. The time series were analysed with nonlinear models with multiple regimes represented by self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and Markov-switching models (MSW). The analysis showed that, based on the value of residual sum of squares (RSS) in both datasets, SETAR and MSW models described the time-series better than models of the

  20. Systemic inflammation combined with neonatal cerebellar haemorrhage aggravates long-term structural and functional outcomes in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, Sophie; Pai, Alex; Richter, Lindsay; Vafaei, Rod; Potluri, Praneetha; Ellegood, Jacob; Lerch, Jason P; Goldowitz, Daniel

    2017-11-01

    Despite the increased recognition of cerebellar injury in survivors of preterm birth, the neurodevelopmental consequences of isolated cerebellar injury have been largely unexplored and our current understanding of the functional deficits requires further attention in order to translate knowledge to best practices. Preterm infants are exposed to multiple stressors during their postnatal development including perinatal cerebellar haemorrhage (CBH) and postnatal infection, two major risk factors for neurodevelopmental impairments. We developed a translational mouse model of CBH and/or inflammation to measure the short- and long-term outcomes in cerebellar structure and function. Mice exposed to early combined insults of CBH and early inflammatory state (EIS) have a delay in grasping acquisition, neonatal motor deficits and deficient long-term memory. CBH combined with late inflammatory state (LIS) does not induce neonatal motor problems but leads to poor fine motor function and long-term memory deficits at adulthood. Early combined insults result in poor cerebellar growth from postnatal day 15 until adulthood shown by MRI, which are reflected in diminished volumes of cerebellar structures. There are also decreases in volumes of gray matter and hippocampus. Cerebellar microgliosis appears 24h after the combined insults and persists until postnatal day 15 in the cerebellar molecular layer and cerebellar nuclei in association with a disrupted patterning of myelin deposition, a delay of oligodendrocyte maturation and reduced white matter cerebellar volume. Together, these findings reveal poor outcomes in developing brains exposed to combined cerebellar perinatal insults in association with cerebellar hypoplasia, persistence of microgliosis and alterations of cerebellar white matter maturation and growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling of degradation processes in creep resistant steels through accelerated creep tests after long-term isothermal ageing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sklenicka, V.; Kucharova, K.; Svoboda, M.; Kroupa, A.; Kloc, L. [Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Brno (Czech Republic). Inst. of Physics of Materials; Cmakal, J. [UJP PRAHA a.s., Praha-Zbraslav (Czech Republic)

    2010-07-01

    Creep behaviour and degradation of creep properties of creep resistant materials are phenomena of major practical relevance, often limiting the lives of components and structures designed to operate for long periods under stress at elevated and/or high temperatures. Since life expectancy is, in reality, based on the ability of the material to retain its high-temperature creep strength for the projected designed life, methods of creep properties assessment based on microstructural evolution in the material during creep rather than simple parametric extrapolation of short-term creep tests are necessary. In this paper we will try to further clarify the creep-strength degradation of selected advanced creep resistant steels. In order to accelerate some microstructural changes and thus to simulate degradation processes in long-term service, isothermal ageing at 650 C for 10 000 h was applied to P91 and P23 steels in their as-received states. The accelerated tensile creep tests were performed at temperature 600 C in argon atmosphere on all steels both in the as-received state and after long-term isothermal ageing, in an effort to obtain a more complete description of the role of microstructural stability in high temperature creep of these steels. Creep tests were followed by microstructural investigations by means of both transmission and scanning electron microscopy and by the thermodynamic calculations. The applicability of the accelerated creep tests was verified by the theoretical modelling of the phase equilibria at different temperatures. It is suggested that under restructed oxidation due to argon atmosphere microstructural instability is the main detrimental process in the long-term degradation of the creep rupture strength of these steels. (orig.)

  2. An integrated model for long-term power generation planning toward future smart electricity systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Ishihara, Keiichi N.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • An integrated model for planning future smart electricity systems was developed. • The model consists of an optimization model and an hour-by-hour simulation model. • The model was applied to Tokyo area, Japan in light of the Fukushima Accident. • Paths to best generation mixes of smart electricity systems were obtained. • Detailed hourly operation patterns in smart electricity systems were obtained. - Abstract: In the present study, an integrated planning model was developed to find economically/environmentally optimized paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy and new controllable electric devices at the supply and demand sides respectively for regional scale. The integrated model is used to (i) plan the best power generation and capacity mixes to meet future electricity demand subject to various constraints using an optimization model; (ii) obtain detailed operation patterns of power plants and new controllable electric devices using an hour-by-hour simulation model based on the obtained optimized power generation mix. As a case study, the model was applied to power generation planning in the Tokyo area, Japan, out to 2030 in light of the Fukushima Accident. The paths toward best generation mixes of smart electricity systems in 2030 based on fossil fuel, hydro power, nuclear and renewable energy were obtained and the feasibility of the integrated model was proven

  3. New Mechanistic Models