WorldWideScience

Sample records for logits

  1. Sequential and Simultaneous Logit: A Nested Model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, J.C.M.; Schram, A.J.H.C.

    1997-01-01

    A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. In the analysis a distribution function is

  2. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...... suitable for both interpretation and communication of results. The pratical steps are illustrated through an application of the MLM to the choice of foreign market entry mode.......This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there seem...... to be systematic issues with regard to how researchers interpret their results when using the MLM. In this study, I present a set of guidelines critical to analyzing and interpreting results from the MLM. The procedure involves intuitive graphical representations of predicted probabilities and marginal effects...

  3. STAS and Logit Modeling of Advertising and Promotion Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Flemming; Yssing Hansen, Lotte; Grønholdt, Lars

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the preliminary studies of the effect of advertising and promotion on purchases using the British single-source database Adlab. STAS and logit modeling are the two measures studied. Results from the two measures have been compared to determine the extent to which, they give...

  4. Spatial age-length key modelling using continuation ratio logits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper W.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2012-01-01

    -called age-length key (ALK) is then used to obtain the age distribution. Regional differences in ALKs are not uncommon, but stratification is often problematic due to a small number of samples. Here, we combine generalized additive modelling with continuation ratio logits to model the probability of age...

  5. Predicting Dropouts of University Freshmen: A Logit Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Y. L. Jack

    1984-01-01

    Stepwise discriminant analysis coupled with logit regression analysis of freshmen data from Brandon University (Manitoba) indicated that six tested variables drawn from research on university dropouts were useful in predicting attrition: student status, residence, financial sources, distance from home town, goal fulfillment, and satisfaction with…

  6. Un procedimiento para selección de los modelos Logit Mixtos

    OpenAIRE

    Ruíz Gallegos, José de Jesús

    2004-01-01

    En el presente trabajo se hace una revisión de dos modelos que han tenido una fuerte aplicabilidad en los problemas de elecciones discretas: El modelo Logit y el modelo Logit Mixto. Además, se propone el uso del estadístico de Cox para seleccionar modelos, en el modelo Logit Mixto.

  7. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination....... The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible......We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  8. Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects in Logit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard

    It has long been believed that the decomposition of the total effect of one variable on another into direct and indirect effects, while feasible in linear models, is not possible in non-linear probability models such as the logit and probit. In this paper we present a new and simple method...... average partial effects, as defined by Wooldridge (2002). We present the method graphically and illustrate it using the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988...

  9. Interpreting Marginal Effects in the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    with a substantial increase in the probability of entering a foreign market using a joint venture, while increases in the unpredictability in the host country environment are associated with a lower probability of wholly owned subsidiaries and a higher probability of exporting entries....... that have entered foreign markets. Through the application of a multinomial logit model, careful analysis of the marginal effects is performed through graphical representations, marginal effects at the mean, average marginal effects and elasticities. I show that increasing cultural distance is associated......This paper presents the challenges when researchers interpret results about relationships between variables from discrete choice models with multiple outcomes. The recommended approach is demonstrated by testing predictions from transaction cost theory on a sample of 246 Scandinavian firms...

  10. Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinay, B

    2010-01-01

    Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.

  11. Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kesehatan Bank dengan Regresi Logit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Titik Aryati

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to find the probability effects of bank’s health level using CAMEL ratio analysis. The statistic method used to test on the research hypothesis was logit regression. The dependent variable used in this research was bank’s health level and independent variables were CAMEL financial ratios consisting of CAR, NPL, ROA, ROE, LDR, and NIM. The report data were extracted from bank’s financial from financial report, which had been published and accumulated by Infobank research bureau with valuation, based on bank Indonesia policy. The sample consisted of 60 healthy banks and 14 unhealthy banks in 2005 and 2006. The empirical result of this research indicates that the Non Performing Loan is the significant variable affecting bank health level.

  12. Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

    The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

  13. Interpreting and Understanding Logits, Probits, and other Non-Linear Probability Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders

    2018-01-01

    Methods textbooks in sociology and other social sciences routinely recommend the use of the logit or probit model when an outcome variable is binary, an ordered logit or ordered probit when it is ordinal, and a multinomial logit when it has more than two categories. But these methodological...... guidelines take little or no account of a body of work that, over the past 30 years, has pointed to problematic aspects of these nonlinear probability models and, particularly, to difficulties in interpreting their parameters. In this chapterreview, we draw on that literature to explain the problems, show...

  14. Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Binary Logit Model with Cross-Sectional Data and Short Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier; Pedersen, Morten

    This paper proposes a new approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity in applied research using the binary logit model with cross-sectional data and short panels. Unobserved heterogeneity is particularly important in non-linear regression models such as the binary logit model because, unlike...... in linear regression models, estimates of the effects of observed independent variables are biased even when omitted independent variables are uncorrelated with the observed independent variables. We propose an extension of the binary logit model based on a finite mixture approach in which we conceptualize...

  15. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  16. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

  17. Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

  18. Analysis of RIA standard curve by log-logistic and cubic log-logit models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Hideo; Kuroda, Akira; Yatabe, Tami; Inaba, Taeko; Chiba, Kazuo

    1981-01-01

    In order to improve goodness-of-fit in RIA standard analysis, programs for computing log-logistic and cubic log-logit were written in BASIC using personal computer P-6060 (Olivetti). Iterative least square method of Taylor series was applied for non-linear estimation of logistic and log-logistic. Hear ''log-logistic'' represents Y = (a - d)/(1 + (log(X)/c)sup(b)) + d As weights either 1, 1/var(Y) or 1/σ 2 were used in logistic or log-logistic and either Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 , Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /var(Y), or Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /σ 2 were used in quadratic or cubic log-logit. The term var(Y) represents squares of pure error and σ 2 represents estimated variance calculated using a following equation log(σ 2 + 1) = log(A) + J log(y). As indicators for goodness-of-fit, MSL/S sub(e)sup(2), CMD% and WRV (see text) were used. Better regression was obtained in case of alpha-fetoprotein by log-logistic than by logistic. Cortisol standard curve was much better fitted with cubic log-logit than quadratic log-logit. Predicted precision of AFP standard curve was below 5% in log-logistic in stead of 8% in logistic analysis. Predicted precision obtained using cubic log-logit was about five times lower than that with quadratic log-logit. Importance of selecting good models in RIA data processing was stressed in conjunction with intrinsic precision of radioimmunoassay system indicated by predicted precision. (author)

  19. DETEKSI DINI KRISIS PERBANKAN INDONESIA: IDENTIFIKASI VARIABEL MAKRO DENGAN MODEL LOGIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanty Oktavilia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia suffered from banking crisis for several times. It was the effect of the worst crisis occurredin 1997. Actually, Bath Thailand which plunged into 27,8% at the third quarter of the year 1997 was thebeginning problem that caused Asia currency crisis. This study analyzes the influence of macro indicatoras an early warning system by using logit econometrics model for predicting the possibilities of bankingcrisis that may occur in Indonesia.Kewords: Banking Crisis, macro economic indicator, EWS-logit model

  20. Multiple equilibria and limit cycles in evolutonary games with Logit Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

    2012-01-01

    This note shows, by means of two simple, three-strategy games, the existence of stable periodic orbits and of multiple, interior steady states in a smooth version of the Best-Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and

  1. Multiple steady states, limit cycles and chaotic attractors in evolutionary games with Logit Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates, by means of simple, three and four strategy games, the occurrence of periodic and chaotic behaviour in a smooth version of the Best Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and thus, stable limit

  2. Another Look at the Method of Y-Standardization in Logit and Probit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper takes another look at the derivation of the method of Y-standardization used in sociological analysis involving comparisons of coefficients across logit or probit models. It shows that the method can be derived under less restrictive assumptions than hitherto suggested. Rather than...

  3. Logit Estimation of a Gravity Model of the College Enrollment Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppel, Karen

    1993-01-01

    A study investigated the factors influencing students' decisions about attending a college to which they had been admitted. Logit analysis confirmed gravity model predictions that geographic distance and student ability would most influence the enrollment decision and found other variables, although affecting earlier stages of decision making, did…

  4. An integrated Markov decision process and nested logit consumer response model of air ticket pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, J.; Feng, T.; Timmermans, H.P.J.; Yang, Z.

    2017-01-01

    The paper attempts to propose an optimal air ticket pricing model during the booking horizon by taking into account passengers' purchasing behavior of air tickets. A Markov decision process incorporating a nested logit consumer response model is established to modeling the dynamic pricing process.

  5. Associating Crash Avoidance Maneuvers with Driver Attributes and Accident Characteristics: A Mixed Logit Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    as from the key role of the ability of drivers to perform effective corrective maneuvers for the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that accommodates correlations across alternatives and heteroscedasticity. Data...

  6. Mixed logit model of intended residential mobility in renovated historical blocks in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, W.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Li, H.; Feng, T.

    2016-01-01

    Using data from 8 historical blocks in China, the influence of socialdemographic characteristics and residential satisfaction on intended residentialmobility is analysed. The results of a mixed logit model indicate that higher residential satisfaction will lead to a lower intention to move house,

  7. An Empirical Analysis of Television Commercial Ratings in Alternative Competitive Environments Using Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek ALTAŞ

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Watching the commercials depends on the choice of the viewer. Most of the television viewing takes place during “Prime-Time” unfortunately; many viewers opt to zap to other channels when commercials start. The television viewers’ demographic characteristics may indicate the likelihood of the zapping frequency. Analysis made by using Multinomial Logit Model indicates how effective the demographic variables are in the watching rate of the first minute of the television commercials.

  8. Study on Emission Measurement of Vehicle on Road Based on Binomial Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Aly, Sumarni Hamid; Selintung, Mary; Ramli, Muhammad Isran; Sumi, Tomonori

    2011-01-01

    This research attempts to evaluate emission measurement of on road vehicle. In this regard, the research develops failure probability model of vehicle emission test for passenger car which utilize binomial logit model. The model focuses on failure of CO and HC emission test for gasoline cars category and Opacity emission test for diesel-fuel cars category as dependent variables, while vehicle age, engine size, brand and type of the cars as independent variables. In order to imp...

  9. Analysis of Internet Usage Intensity in Iraq: An Ordered Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Almas Heshmati; Firas H. Al-Hammadany; Ashraf Bany-Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    Intensity of Internet use is significantly influenced by government policies, people’s levels of income, education, employment and general development and economic conditions. Iraq has very low Internet usage levels compared to the region and the world. This study uses an ordered logit model to analyse the intensity of Internet use in Iraq. The results showed that economic reasons (internet cost and income level) were key cause for low level usage intensity rates. About 68% of the population ...

  10. Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

    2012-12-20

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Numerical proceessing of radioimmunoassay results using logit-log transformation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Textoris, R.

    1983-01-01

    The mathematical model and algorithm are described of the numerical processing of the results of a radioimmunoassay by the logit-log transformation method and by linear regression with weight factors. The limiting value of the curve for zero concentration is optimized with regard to the residual sum by the iterative method by multiple repeats of the linear regression. Typical examples are presented of the approximation of calibration curves. The method proved suitable for all hitherto used RIA sets and is well suited for small computers with internal memory of min. 8 Kbyte. (author)

  12. The importance of examining movements within the US health care system: sequential logit modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Chioun

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Utilization of specialty care may not be a discrete, isolated behavior but rather, a behavior of sequential movements within the health care system. Although patients may often visit their primary care physician and receive a referral before utilizing specialty care, prior studies have underestimated the importance of accounting for these sequential movements. Methods The sample included 6,772 adults aged 18 years and older who participated in the 2001 Survey on Disparities in Quality of Care, sponsored by the Commonwealth Fund. A sequential logit model was used to account for movement in all stages of utilization: use of any health services (i.e., first stage, having a perceived need for specialty care (i.e., second stage, and utilization of specialty care (i.e., third stage. In the sequential logit model, all stages are nested within the previous stage. Results Gender, race/ethnicity, education and poor health had significant explanatory effects with regard to use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, however racial/ethnic, gender, and educational disparities were not present in utilization of specialty care. After controlling for use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, inability to pay for specialty care via income (AOR = 1.334, CI = 1.10 to 1.62 or health insurance (unstable insurance: AOR = 0.26, CI = 0.14 to 0.48; no insurance: AOR = 0.12, CI = 0.07 to 0.20 were significant barriers to utilization of specialty care. Conclusions Use of a sequential logit model to examine utilization of specialty care resulted in a detailed representation of utilization behaviors and patient characteristics that impact these behaviors at all stages within the health care system. After controlling for sequential movements within the health care system, the biggest barrier to utilizing specialty care is the inability to pay, while racial, gender, and educational disparities

  13. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because......Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...

  14. The consumer’s choice among television displays: A multinomial logit approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Giovanni González Espitia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on observable and unobservable characteristics of goods and consumers. This choice is made in order to maximize utility subject to a budget constraint. At the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions to maximize profit. Quality is a form of differentiation. An example of this occurs in the TV market, where several displays are developed. Our objective is to determine the probability for a consumer of choosing a type of display from among five kinds: standard tube, LCD, plasma, projection and LED. Using a multinomial logit approach, we find that electronic appliances like DVDs and audio systems, as well as socioeconomic status, increase the probability of choosing a high-tech television display. Our empirical approximation contributes to further understanding rational consumer behavior through the theory of utility maximization and highlights the importance of studying market structure and analyzing changes in welfare and efficiency.

  15. Stability of Mixed-Strategy-Based Iterative Logit Quantal Response Dynamics in Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan

    2014-01-01

    Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502

  16. Determination of the Factors Influencing Store Preference in Erzurum by a Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin ÖZER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine factors influencing store preference of the store costumers in Erzurum in terms of some characteristics of the store and its product and costumers’ demographic characteristics (sex, age, marital status, level of education and their income level. In order to carry out this objective, Pearson chi-square test is applied to determine whether there is a relationship between the store preference and customer, stores, and some characteristics of products and a multinominal logit model is fitted by stepwise regression method to the cross-section data compiled from a questionnaire applied to 384 store costumers in the center of Erzurum province. According to the model estimation and test results, the variables of marital status (married, education (primary and cheapness (unimportant for Migros; education (middle for Özmar and marital status (married for the other stores are determined as statistically significant at the level of 5 percent

  17. Using continuation-ratio logits to analyze the variation of the age composition of fish catches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine; Gislason, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

    2000-01-01

    Major sources of information for the estimation of the size of the fish stocks and the rate of their exploitation are samples from which the age composition of catches may be determined However, the age composition in the catches often varies as a result of several factors. Stratification...... of the sampling is desirable, because it leads to better estimates of the age composition, and the corresponding variances and covariances. The analysis is impeded by the fact that the response is ordered categorical. This paper introduces an easily applicable method to analyze such data. The method combines...... be applied separately to each level of the logits. The method is illustrated by the analysis of age-composition data collected from the Danish sandeel fishery in the North Sea in 1993. The significance of possible sources of variation is evaluated, and formulae for estimating the proportions of each age...

  18. Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

  19. Environmental regulations and plant exit: A logit analysis based on established panel data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bioern, E; Golombek, R; Raknerud, A

    1995-12-01

    This publication uses a model to study the relationship between environmental regulations and plant exit. It has the main characteristics of a multinomial qualitative response model of the logit type, but also has elements of a Markov chain model. The model uses Norwegian panel data for establishments in three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units which have been under strict environmental regulations. In two of the sectors, the exit probability of non-regulated establishments is about three times higher than for regulated ones. It is also found that the probability of changing regulation status from non-regulated to regulated depends significantly on economic factors. In particular, establishments with weak profitability are the most likely to become subject to environmental regulation. 12 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  20. Sample size determination for logistic regression on a logit-normal distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seongho; Heath, Elisabeth; Heilbrun, Lance

    2017-06-01

    Although the sample size for simple logistic regression can be readily determined using currently available methods, the sample size calculation for multiple logistic regression requires some additional information, such as the coefficient of determination ([Formula: see text]) of a covariate of interest with other covariates, which is often unavailable in practice. The response variable of logistic regression follows a logit-normal distribution which can be generated from a logistic transformation of a normal distribution. Using this property of logistic regression, we propose new methods of determining the sample size for simple and multiple logistic regressions using a normal transformation of outcome measures. Simulation studies and a motivating example show several advantages of the proposed methods over the existing methods: (i) no need for [Formula: see text] for multiple logistic regression, (ii) available interim or group-sequential designs, and (iii) much smaller required sample size.

  1. Maximum Simulated Likelihood and Expectation-Maximization Methods to Estimate Random Coefficients Logit with Panel Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Guevara, Cristian

    2012-01-01

    with cross-sectional or with panel data, and (d) EM systematically attained more efficient estimators than the MSL method. The results imply that if the purpose of the estimation is only to determine the ratios of the model parameters (e.g., the value of time), the EM method should be preferred. For all......The random coefficients logit model allows a more realistic representation of agents' behavior. However, the estimation of that model may involve simulation, which may become impractical with many random coefficients because of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, the traditional maximum...... simulated likelihood (MSL) method is compared with the alternative expectation- maximization (EM) method, which does not require simulation. Previous literature had shown that for cross-sectional data, MSL outperforms the EM method in the ability to recover the true parameters and estimation time...

  2. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  3. A mixed logit analysis of two-vehicle crash severities involving a motorcycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaheed, Mohammad Saad B; Gkritza, Konstantina; Zhang, Wei; Hans, Zachary

    2013-12-01

    Using motorcycle crash data for Iowa from 2001 to 2008, this paper estimates a mixed logit model to investigate the factors that affect crash severity outcomes in a collision between a motorcycle and another vehicle. These include crash-specific factors (such as manner of collision, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle actions), roadway and environmental conditions, location and time, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle attributes. The methodological approach allows the parameters to vary across observations as opposed to a single parameter representing all observations. Our results showed non-uniform effects of rear-end collisions on minor injury crashes, as well as of the roadway speed limit greater or equal to 55mph, the type of area (urban), the riding season (summer) and motorcyclist's gender on low severity crashes. We also found significant effects of the roadway surface condition, clear vision (not obscured by moving vehicles, trees, buildings, or other), light conditions, speed limit, and helmet use on severe injury outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes: a heteroskedastic logit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joon-Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venkataraman N; Kim, Sungyop

    2008-09-01

    This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.

  5. Analysis of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on Vannamei Shrimp using binary logit model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviana, P. P.; Fithriasari, K.

    2018-04-01

    Mostly Indonesian citizen consume vannamei shrimp as their food. Vannamei shrimp also is one of Indonesian exports comodities mainstay. Vannamei shrimp in the ponds and markets could be contaminated by Salmonella sp bacteria. This bacteria will endanger human health. Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp could be affected by many factors. This study is intended to identify what factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp. The researchers used the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp as response variable. This response variable has two categories: 0 = if testing result indicate that there is no Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp; 1 = if testing result indicate that there is Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp. There are four factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp, which are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab; the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds; the fish processing unit supplied by; and the pond are in hectare. This four factors used as predictor variables. The analysis used is Binary Logit Model Approach according to the response variable that has two categories. The analysis result indicates that the factors or predictor variables which is significantly affect the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab and the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds.

  6. Investigating the Differences of Single-Vehicle and Multivehicle Accident Probability Using Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Dong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents are believed to be associated with not only road geometric feature and traffic characteristic, but also weather condition. To address these safety issues, it is of paramount importance to understand how these factors affect the occurrences of the crashes. Existing studies have suggested that the mechanisms of single-vehicle (SV accidents and multivehicle (MV accidents can be very different. Few studies were conducted to examine the difference of SV and MV accident probability by addressing unobserved heterogeneity at the same time. To investigate the different contributing factors on SV and MV, a mixed logit model is employed using disaggregated data with the response variable categorized as no accidents, SV accidents, and MV accidents. The results indicate that, in addition to speed gap, length of segment, and wet road surfaces which are significant for both SV and MV accidents, most of other variables are significant only for MV accidents. Traffic, road, and surface characteristics are main influence factors of SV and MV accident possibility. Hourly traffic volume, inside shoulder width, and wet road surface are found to produce statistically significant random parameters. Their effects on the possibility of SV and MV accident vary across different road segments.

  7. Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

    2010-09-01

    A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

  8. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A Subpath-based Logit Model to Capture the Correlation of Routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A subpath-based methodology is proposed to capture the travellers’ route choice behaviours and their perceptual correlation of routes, because the original link-based style may not be suitable in application: (1 travellers do not process road network information and construct the chosen route by a link-by-link style; (2 observations from questionnaires and GPS data, however, are not always link-specific. Subpaths are defined as important portions of the route, such as major roads and landmarks. The cross-nested Logit (CNL structure is used for its tractable closed-form and its capability to explicitly capture the routes correlation. Nests represent subpaths other than links so that the number of nests is significantly reduced. Moreover, the proposed method simplifies the original link-based CNL model; therefore, it alleviates the estimation and computation difficulties. The estimation and forecast validation with real data are presented, and the results suggest that the new method is practical.

  10. Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwondo; Seo, Minseok; Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability.

  11. Assessment of Poisson, logit, and linear models for genetic analysis of clinical mastitis in Norwegian Red cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, A I; Gianola, D; Bates, D; Weigel, K A; Heringstad, B

    2009-02-01

    Clinical mastitis is typically coded as presence/absence during some period of exposure, and records are analyzed with linear or binary data models. Because presence includes cows with multiple episodes, there is loss of information when a count is treated as a binary response. The Poisson model is designed for counting random variables, and although it is used extensively in epidemiology of mastitis, it has rarely been used for studying the genetics of mastitis. Many models have been proposed for genetic analysis of mastitis, but they have not been formally compared. The main goal of this study was to compare linear (Gaussian), Bernoulli (with logit link), and Poisson models for the purpose of genetic evaluation of sires for mastitis in dairy cattle. The response variables were clinical mastitis (CM; 0, 1) and number of CM cases (NCM; 0, 1, 2, ..). Data consisted of records on 36,178 first-lactation daughters of 245 Norwegian Red sires distributed over 5,286 herds. Predictive ability of models was assessed via a 3-fold cross-validation using mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end-point. Between-sire variance estimates for NCM were 0.065 in Poisson and 0.007 in the linear model. For CM the between-sire variance was 0.093 in logit and 0.003 in the linear model. The ratio between herd and sire variances for the models with NCM response was 4.6 and 3.5 for Poisson and linear, respectively, and for model for CM was 3.7 in both logit and linear models. The MSEP for all cows was similar. However, within healthy animals, MSEP was 0.085 (Poisson), 0.090 (linear for NCM), 0.053 (logit), and 0.056 (linear for CM). For mastitic animals the MSEP values were 1.206 (Poisson), 1.185 (linear for NCM response), 1.333 (logit), and 1.319 (linear for CM response). The models for count variables had a better performance when predicting diseased animals and also had a similar performance between them. Logit and linear models for CM had better predictive ability for healthy

  12. Efficiency Loss of Mixed Equilibrium Associated with Altruistic Users and Logit-based Stochastic Users in Transportation Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Jun Yu

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency loss of mixed equilibrium associated with two categories of users is investigated in this paper. The first category of users are altruistic users (AU who have the same altruism coefficient and try to minimize their own perceived cost that assumed to be a linear combination of selfish com­ponent and altruistic component. The second category of us­ers are Logit-based stochastic users (LSU who choose the route according to the Logit-based stochastic user equilib­rium (SUE principle. The variational inequality (VI model is used to formulate the mixed route choice behaviours associ­ated with AU and LSU. The efficiency loss caused by the two categories of users is analytically derived and the relations to some network parameters are discussed. The numerical tests validate our analytical results. Our result takes the re­sults in the existing literature as its special cases.

  13. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that represents the selection among 5 emergency lateral and speed control maneuvers (i.e., "no avoidance maneuvers," "braking," "steering," "braking and steering," and "other maneuvers) while accommodating correlations across maneuvers and heteroscedasticity. Data for the analysis were retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the year 2009 by considering drivers for which crash avoidance maneuvers are known. The results show that (1) the nature of the critical event that made the crash imminent greatly influences the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers, (2) women and elderly have a relatively lower propensity to conduct crash avoidance maneuvers, (3) drowsiness and fatigue have a greater negative marginal effect on the tendency to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers than alcohol and drug consumption, (4) difficult road conditions increase the propensity to perform crash avoidance maneuvers, and (5) visual obstruction and artificial illumination decrease the probability to carry out crash avoidance maneuvers. The results emphasize the need for public awareness campaigns to promote safe driving style for senior drivers and warning about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing

  14. Valuing Non-market Benefits of Rehabilitation of Hydrologic Cycle Improvements in the Anyangcheon Watershed: Using Mixed Logit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, J.; Kong, K.

    2010-12-01

    This research the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with the Anyangcheon watershed improvements in Rep. of Korea. The Anyangcheon watershed has suffered from streamflow depletion and poor stream quality, which often negatively affect instream and near-stream ecologic integrity, as well as water supply. Such distortions in the hydrologic cycle mainly result from rapid increase of impermeable area due to urbanization, decreases of baseflow runoff due to groundwater pumping, and reduced precipitation inputs driven by climate forcing. As well, combined sewer overflows and increase of non-point source pollution from urban regions decrease water quality. The appeal of choice experiments (CE) in economic analysis is that it is based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). In contrast to contingent valuation method (CVM), which asks people to choose between a base case and a specific alternative, CE asks people to choice between cases that are described by attributes. The attributes of this study were selected from hydrologic vulnerability components that represent flood damage possibility, instreamflow depletion, water quality deterioration, form of the watershed and tax. Their levels were divided into three grades include status quo. Two grades represented the ideal conditions. These scenarios were constructed from a 35 orthogonal main effect design. This design resulted in twenty-seven choice sets. The design had nine different choice scenarios presented to each respondent. The most popular choice models in use are the conditional logit (CNL). This model provides closed-form choice probability calculation. The shortcoming of CNL comes from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) is applied to allow the coefficient’s variation for random taste heterogeneity in the population. The mixed logit model(with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the

  15. The Market for Ph.D. Holders in Greece: Probit and Multinomial Logit Analysis of their Employment Status

    OpenAIRE

    Joan Daouli; Eirini Konstantina Nikolatou

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the probability that a Ph.D. holder in Greece will work in the academic sector, as well as the probability of his or her choosing employment in various sectors of industry and occupational categories. Probit/multinomial logit models are employed using the 2001 Census data. The empirical results indicate that being young, married, having a Ph.D. in Natural Sciences and/or in Engineering, granted by a Greek university, increa...

  16. Comparing Johnson’s SBB, Weibull and Logit-Logistic bivariate distributions for modeling tree diameters and heights using copulas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardil Forradellas, A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Oliveres, J.; Castellnou, M.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of study: In this study we compare the accuracy of three bivariate distributions: Johnson’s SBB, Weibull-2P and LL-2P functions for characterizing the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. Area of study: North-West of Spain. Material and methods: Diameter and height measurements of 128 plots of pure and even-aged Tasmanian blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.) stands located in the North-west of Spain were considered in the present study. The SBB bivariate distribution was obtained from SB marginal distributions using a Normal Copula based on a four-parameter logistic transformation. The Plackett Copula was used to obtain the bivariate models from the Weibull and Logit-logistic univariate marginal distributions. The negative logarithm of the maximum likelihood function was used to compare the results and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare the related samples of these logarithms calculated for each sample plot and each distribution. Main results: The best results were obtained by using the Plackett copula and the best marginal distribution was the Logit-logistic. Research highlights: The copulas used in this study have shown a good performance for modeling the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. They could be easily extended for modelling multivariate distributions involving other tree variables, such as tree volume or biomass. (Author)

  17. Analyzing Korean consumers’ latent preferences for electricity generation sources with a hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byun, Hyunsuk; Lee, Chul-Yong

    2017-01-01

    Generally, consumers use electricity without considering the source the electricity was generated from. Since different energy sources exert varying effects on society, it is necessary to analyze consumers’ latent preference for electricity generation sources. The present study estimates Korean consumers’ marginal utility and an appropriate generation mix is derived using the hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment. The results show that consumers consider the danger posed by the source of electricity as the most important factor among the effects of electricity generation sources. Additionally, Korean consumers wish to reduce the contribution of nuclear power from the existing 32–11%, and increase that of renewable energy from the existing 4–32%. - Highlights: • We derive an electricity mix reflecting Korean consumers’ latent preferences. • We use the discrete choice experiment and hierarchical Bayesian logit model. • The danger posed by the generation source is the most important attribute. • The consumers wish to increase the renewable energy proportion from 4.3% to 32.8%. • Korea's cost-oriented energy supply policy and consumers’ preference differ markedly.

  18. FACTORS THAT AFFECT TRANSPORT MODE PREFERENCE FOR GRADUATE STUDENTS IN THE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MALAYSIA BY LOGIT METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALI AHMED MOHAMMED

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out to examine the perceptions and preferences of students on choosing the type of transportation for their travels in university campus. This study focused on providing personal transport users road transport alternatives as a countermeasure aimed at shifting car users to other modes of transportation. Overall 456 questionnaires were conducted to develop a choice of transportation mode preferences. Consequently, Logit model and SPSS were used to identify the factors that affect the determination of the choice of transportation mode. Results indicated that by reducing travel time by 70% the amount of private cars users will be reduced by 84%, while reduction the travel cost was found to be highly improving the public modes of utilization. This study revealed positive aspects is needed to shift travellers from private modes to public. The positive aspect contributes to travel time and travel cost reduction, hence improving the services, whereby contributing to sustainability.

  19. Recreation Value of Water to Wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley: Linked Multinomial Logit and Count Data Trip Frequency Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Michael; Loomis, John

    1992-10-01

    The recreational benefits from providing increased quantities of water to wildlife and fisheries habitats is estimated using linked multinomial logit site selection models and count data trip frequency models. The study encompasses waterfowl hunting, fishing and wildlife viewing at 14 recreational resources in the San Joaquin Valley, including the National Wildlife Refuges, the State Wildlife Management Areas, and six river destinations. The economic benefits of increasing water supplies to wildlife refuges were also examined by using the estimated models to predict changing patterns of site selection and overall participation due to increases in water allocations. Estimates of the dollar value per acre foot of water are calculated for increases in water to refuges. The resulting model is a flexible and useful tool for estimating the economic benefits of alternative water allocation policies for wildlife habitat and rivers.

  20. Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2018-06-01

    Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

    2017-12-01

    Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).

  2. UN MODELO LOGIT PARA LA FRAGILIDAD DEL SISTEMA FINANCIERO VENEZOLANO DENTRO DEL CONTEXTO DE LOS PROCESOS DE FUSIÓN E INTERVENCIÓN | A LOGIT APPROACH OF THE VENEZUELAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF MERGER AND INTERVENTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Rubicundo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In Venezuela there have been more than 30 mergers, after the approval of the Banking Act in 1999, since from 103 institutions, the financial system closed the year 2013 with 35 brokerage firms, which represents a decrease of 66% due to 20 coalitions, 30 transformations and 18 settlements. Therefore, an analysis is proposed of the current economic situation of the financial system in the context of mergers and interventions, considering internal and external factors according to the constituted capital. The study was based on information from 37 private capital institutions and 04 public institutions, between January 2009 and December 2013. The previous analysis for privately held banks, showed that these institutions have a 78.40% chance of not incurring in situations of fragility; while the State capital banks have 83.30% of surviving in the market. As for the estimated logit models, it was found that the liquidity ratio, ROE, management index and inflation, are components that push towards a fragile situation for privately held banks, with a probability forecast of fragility. With regard to the state capital banks, this situation is explained by a 62.50% equity index, ROE, and inflation. A probability of stability for these banks is expected. The joint model forecasted a probability of a stable financial system for the coming months.

  3. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

    2016-05-18

    Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

  5. Revealing additional preference heterogeneity with an extended random parameter logit model: the case of extra virgin olive oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Yangui

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Methods that account for preference heterogeneity have received a significant amount of attention in recent literature. Most of them have focused on preference heterogeneity around the mean of the random parameters, which has been specified as a function of socio-demographic characteristics. This paper aims at analyzing consumers’ preferences towards extra-virgin olive oil in Catalonia using a methodological framework with two novelties over past studies: 1 it accounts for both preference heterogeneity around the mean and the variance; and 2 it considers both socio-demographic characteristics of consumers as well as their attitudinal factors. Estimated coefficients and moments of willingness to pay (WTP distributions are compared with those obtained from alternative Random Parameter Logit (RPL models. Results suggest that the proposed framework increases the goodness-of-fit and provides more useful insights for policy analysis. The most important attributes affecting consumers’ preferences towards extra virgin olive oil are the price and the product’s origin. The consumers perceive the organic olive oil attribute negatively, as they think that it is not worth paying a premium for a product that is healthy in nature.

  6. Pricing and lot sizing optimization in a two-echelon supply chain with a constrained Logit demand function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeison Díaz-Mateus

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in supply chains is influenced by demand variations, and hence sales, purchase orders and inventory levels are therefore concerned. This paper presents a non-linear optimization model for a two-echelon supply chain, for a unique product. In addition, the model includes the consumers’ maximum willingness to pay, taking socioeconomic differences into account. To do so, the constrained multinomial logit for discrete choices is used to estimate demand levels. Then, a metaheuristic approach based on particle swarm optimization is proposed to determine the optimal product sales price and inventory coordination variables. To validate the proposed model, a supply chain of a technological product was chosen and three scenarios are analyzed: discounts, demand segmentation and demand overestimation. Results are analyzed on the basis of profits, lotsizing and inventory turnover and market share. It can be concluded that the maximum willingness to pay must be taken into consideration, otherwise fictitious profits may mislead decision making, and although the market share would seem to improve, overall profits are not in fact necessarily better.

  7. How bicycle level of traffic stress correlate with reported cyclist accidents injury severities: A geospatial and mixed logit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Anderson, Jason C; Wang, Haizhong; Wang, Yinhai; Vogt, Rachel; Hernandez, Salvador

    2017-11-01

    Transportation agencies need efficient methods to determine how to reduce bicycle accidents while promoting cycling activities and prioritizing safety improvement investments. Many studies have used standalone methods, such as level of traffic stress (LTS) and bicycle level of service (BLOS), to better understand bicycle mode share and network connectivity for a region. However, in most cases, other studies rely on crash severity models to explain what variables contribute to the severity of bicycle related crashes. This research uniquely correlates bicycle LTS with reported bicycle crash locations for four cities in New Hampshire through geospatial mapping. LTS measurements and crash locations are compared visually using a GIS framework. Next, a bicycle injury severity model, that incorporates LTS measurements, is created through a mixed logit modeling framework. Results of the visual analysis show some geospatial correlation between higher LTS roads and "Injury" type bicycle crashes. It was determined, statistically, that LTS has an effect on the severity level of bicycle crashes and high LTS can have varying effects on severity outcome. However, it is recommended that further analyses be conducted to better understand the statistical significance and effect of LTS on injury severity. As such, this research will validate the use of LTS as a proxy for safety risk regardless of the recorded bicycle crash history. This research will help identify the clustering patterns of bicycle crashes on high-risk corridors and, therefore, assist with bicycle route planning and policy making. This paper also suggests low-cost countermeasures or treatments that can be implemented to address high-risk areas. Specifically, with the goal of providing safer routes for cyclists, such countermeasures or treatments have the potential to substantially reduce the number of fatalities and severe injuries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Para Krizleri Öngörüsünde Logit Model ve Sinyal Yaklaşımının Değeri: Türkiye Tecrübesi

    OpenAIRE

    Kaya, Vedat; Yilmaz, Omer

    2007-01-01

    Logit model and the signal approach are two analysis methods being commonly used to forecast and explain currency crises. Logit model is successful to determine explaining variables of crisis and to calculate the probability of crisis in particular during the period experienced with a crisis. On the other hand, the signal approach aims at determining any possible currency crisis in advance, following some variables showing unusual change over the periods of economic fluctuation and thus it pr...

  9. Radiation effects on cancer mortality among A-bomb survivors, 1950-72. Comparison of some statistical models and analysis based on the additive logit model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otake, M [Hiroshima Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Science

    1976-12-01

    Various statistical models designed to determine the effects of radiation dose on mortality of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki from specific cancers were evaluated on the basis of a basic k(age) x c(dose) x 2 contingency table. From the aspects of application and fits of different models, analysis based on the additive logit model was applied to the mortality experience of this population during the 22year period from 1 Oct. 1950 to 31 Dec. 1972. The advantages and disadvantages of the additive logit model were demonstrated. Leukemia mortality showed a sharp rise with an increase in dose. The dose response relationship suggests a possible curvature or a log linear model, particularly if the dose estimated to be more than 600 rad were set arbitrarily at 600 rad, since the average dose in the 200+ rad group would then change from 434 to 350 rad. In the 22year period from 1950 to 1972, a high mortality risk due to radiation was observed in survivors with doses of 200 rad and over for all cancers except leukemia. On the other hand, during the latest period from 1965 to 1972 a significant risk was noted also for stomach and breast cancers. Survivors who were 9 year old or less at the time of the bomb and who were exposed to high doses of 200+ rad appeared to show a high mortality risk for all cancers except leukemia, although the number of observed deaths is yet small. A number of interesting areas are discussed from the statistical and epidemiological standpoints, i.e., the numerical comparison of risks in various models, the general evaluation of cancer mortality by the additive logit model, the dose response relationship, the relative risk in the high dose group, the time period of radiation induced cancer mortality, the difference of dose response between Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the relative biological effectiveness of neutrons.

  10. Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia): Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

    OpenAIRE

    Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz

    2013-01-01

    Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia). Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a p...

  11. "Logits and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! A Brief Look at the Simple Math of Logistic Regression and How It Can Improve Dissemination of Results"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason W. Osborne

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These outcomes represent important social science lines of research: retention in, or dropout from school, using illicit drugs, underage alcohol consumption, antisocial behavior, purchasing decisions, voting patterns, risky behavior, and so on. The goal of this paper is to briefly lead the reader through the surprisingly simple mathematics that underpins logistic regression: probabilities, odds, odds ratios, and logits. Anyone with spreadsheet software or a scientific calculator can follow along, and in turn, this knowledge can be used to make much more interesting, clear, and accurate presentations of results (especially to non-technical audiences. In particular, I will share an example of an interaction in logistic regression, how it was originally graphed, and how the graph was made substantially more user-friendly by converting the original metric (logits to a more readily interpretable metric (probability through three simple steps.

  12. Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia: Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Gabriel Marquez Diaz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia. Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje es de 38.14 $/min para estudiantes, siendo 23% mayor para trabajadores de menor ingreso y 73% mayor para los trabajadores de mayor ingreso. Se determinó que el valor del tiempo de espera es 1.95 veces mayor que el tiempo viaje, en tanto que el tiempo de acceso mantiene una relación de 1 a 2.57 con respecto al tiempo de viaje, la cual se considera válida únicamente para el contexto estudiado.

  13. Getting the right balance? A mixed logit analysis of the relationship between UK training doctors' characteristics and their specialties using the 2013 National Training Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Santana, Idaira; Chalkley, Martin

    2017-08-11

    To analyse how training doctors' demographic and socioeconomic characteristics vary according to the specialty that they are training for. Descriptive statistics and mixed logistic regression analysis of cross-sectional survey data to quantify evidence of systematic relationships between doctors' characteristics and their specialty. Doctors in training in the United Kingdom in 2013. 27 530 doctors in training but not in their foundation year who responded to the National Training Survey 2013. Mixed logit regression estimates and the corresponding odds ratios (calculated separately for all doctors in training and a subsample comprising those educated in the UK), relating gender, age, ethnicity, place of studies, socioeconomic background and parental education to the probability of training for a particular specialty. Being female and being white British increase the chances of being in general practice with respect to any other specialty, while coming from a better-off socioeconomic background and having parents with tertiary education have the opposite effect. Mixed results are found for age and place of studies. For example, the difference between men and women is greatest for surgical specialties for which a man is 12.121 times more likely to be training to a surgical specialty (relative to general practice) than a woman (p-valuevalue<0.01). There are systematic and substantial differences between specialties in respect of training doctors' gender, ethnicity, age and socioeconomic background. The persistent underrepresentation in some specialties of women, minority ethnic groups and of those coming from disadvantaged backgrounds will impact on the representativeness of the profession into the future. Further research is needed to understand how the processes of selection and the self-selection of applicants into specialties gives rise to these observed differences. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article

  14. A Monte Carlo simulation study comparing linear regression, beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression at recovering average difference measures in a two sample design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaney, Christopher; Moineddin, Rahim

    2014-01-24

    In biomedical research, response variables are often encountered which have bounded support on the open unit interval--(0,1). Traditionally, researchers have attempted to estimate covariate effects on these types of response data using linear regression. Alternative modelling strategies may include: beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation design to compare the statistical properties of the linear regression model to that of the more novel beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. In the Monte Carlo experiment we assume a simple two sample design. We assume observations are realizations of independent draws from their respective probability models. The randomly simulated draws from the various probability models are chosen to emulate average proportion/percentage/rate differences of pre-specified magnitudes. Following simulation of the experimental data we estimate average proportion/percentage/rate differences. We compare the estimators in terms of bias, variance, type-1 error and power. Estimates of Monte Carlo error associated with these quantities are provided. If response data are beta distributed with constant dispersion parameters across the two samples, then all models are unbiased and have reasonable type-1 error rates and power profiles. If the response data in the two samples have different dispersion parameters, then the simple beta regression model is biased. When the sample size is small (N0 = N1 = 25) linear regression has superior type-1 error rates compared to the other models. Small sample type-1 error rates can be improved in beta regression models using bias correction/reduction methods. In the power experiments, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression models have slightly elevated power compared to linear regression models. Similar results were observed if the

  15. Valoração de contingente pelas modelagens logit e análise multivariada: um estudo de caso da disposição a aceitar compensação dos cafeicultores vinculados ao PRO-CAFÉ de Viçosa - MG Contingent valuation with modeling logit and multivariate analyses: a case study of the willingness of coffee planters linked to the PRO-COFFEE of Viçosa - MG to accept compensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Silveira Máximo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste estudo foi, justamente, identificar, entre os métodos LOGIT e a análise multivariada, qual a mais eficaz para estimar a Disposição a Aceitar Compensação (DAC dos cafeicultores quando o viés da utilidade marginal é passível de ocorrência. Para tal, foi elaborado um formulário com 33 perguntas envolvendo informações sobre características socioeconômicas dos cafeicultores, o uso da metodologia de valoração de contingente (MVC e do veículo de pagamento dos "Jogos de Lances", que revelou a Disposição a Aceitar uma Compensação (DAC na troca de um hectare de café por um hectare de mata. Como esperado, por causa do viés da utilidade marginal o método LOGIT foi incapaz de produzir resultados consistentes. Já a estimação da DAC pela análise multivariada mostrou que, caso o governo estivesse disposto a aumentar a provisão de mata em 70 ha, ele deveria despender 254.200 reais por ano, tratando apenas dos cafeicultores vinculados ao programa do PRO-CAFÉ.The object of this study was to identify which method, either LOGIT or multivariate analyses, was the most efficient to estimate the coffee planters' Willingness to Accept a Compensation, when there was a possibility of occurrence of marginal utility. For such, a questionnaire was formulated, with 33 questions involving information on coffee planters' socio - economic characteristics, the use of the methodology of contingent valuation (MCV, and the payment of the "offer game" that reveled the willingness to accept a compensation (WAC, by exchanging a hectare of coffee by a hectare of forest. As expected, because of the marginal utility's bias, the LOGIT method was unable to produce consistent results. However, when the WAC was estimated by multivariate analyses, the results showed that if the government is willing to increase the provision of forest to 70 hectares, it should pay out 254,200 reais (around 116,000 dollars, dealing only with the coffee planters

  16. Random Coefficient Logit Model for Large Datasets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos); D. Fok (Dennis)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWe present an approach for analyzing market shares and products price elasticities based on large datasets containing aggregate sales data for many products, several markets and for relatively long time periods. We consider the recently proposed Bayesian approach of Jiang et al [Jiang,

  17. Logit Analysis for Profit Maximizing Loan Classification

    OpenAIRE

    Watt, David L.; Mortensen, Timothy L.; Leistritz, F. Larry

    1988-01-01

    Lending criteria and loan classification methods are developed. Rating system breaking points are analyzed to present a method to maximize loan revenues. Financial characteristics of farmers are used as determinants of delinquency in a multivariate logistic model. Results indicate that debt-to-asset and operating ration are most indicative of default.

  18. Memprediksi Financial Distress dengan Binary Logit Regression Perusahaan Telekomunikasi

    OpenAIRE

    antikasari, tiara widya; Djuminah, Djuminah

    2017-01-01

    In this globalization era, sub–sector telecommunication industry has rapid development as time goes by with the number of customers’ growth. However, its growth is not balanced with operational revenue development. Therefore, it is important to analyze the financial distress in telecommunication companies in order to avoid bankruptcy. This research aimed to investigate the effect of financial ratios to predict probability of financial distress. Financial ratios indicator used profitability ra...

  19. Migration of Hispanic Youth and Poverty Status: A Logit Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson-Figueroa, Maria; And Others

    The research investigated whether poor Hispanic youth exhibited less migration than nonpoor Hispanic youth. The hypothesis was that migration is a means to escape poverty, although poverty acts as an inhibitor to migration. The data for the study were derived from The Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey (NLS/Y) and the 1988 County and…

  20. MEMPREDIKSI FINANCIAL DISTRESS DENGAN BINARY LOGIT REGRESSION PERUSAHAAN TELEKOMUNIKASI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiara Widya Antikasari

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In this globalization era, sub–sector telecommunication industry has rapid development as time goes by with the number of customers’ growth. However, its growth is not balanced with operational revenue development. Therefore, it is important to analyze the financial distress in telecommunication companies in order to avoid bankruptcy. This research aimed to investigate the effect of financial ratios to predict probability of financial distress. Financial ratios indicator used profitability ratio, liquidity ratio, activity ratio, and leverage ratio. The population in this research was telecommunication companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange periods 2009-2016. Based on purposive sampling method, the criteria of financial distress in this study was measured by using net operation negative two years, while statistic analysis used was logistic regression with a significance level of 10%. The result was that liquidity ratio (current ratio and activity ratio (total asset turnover ratio had a negative significant value, and profitability ratio(return on asset and leverage ratio (debt to total asset had positive significant value to predict financial distress.

  1. Logit dynamics for strategic games mixing time and metastability

    OpenAIRE

    Ferraioli, Diodato

    2012-01-01

    2010 - 2011 A complex system is generally de_ned as a system emerging from the interaction of several and di_erent components, each one with their properties and their goals, usually subject to external inuences. Nowadays, complex systems are ubiquitous and they are found in many research areas: examples can be found in Economy (e.g., markets), Physics (e.g., ideal gases, spin systems), Biology (e.g., evolution of life) and Computer Science (e.g., Internet and social network...

  2. Three essays on resource economics. Demand systems for energy forecasting: Practical considerations for estimating a generalized logit model, To borrow or not to borrow: A variation on the MacDougal-Kemp theme, and, Valuing reduced risk for households with children or the retired

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Weifeng

    This thesis presents papers on three areas of study within resource and environmental economics. "Demand Systems For Energy Forecasting" provides some practical considerations for estimating a Generalized Logit model. The main reason for using this demand system for energy and other factors is that the derived price elasticities are robust when expenditure shares are small. The primary objective of the paper is to determine the best form of the cross-price weights, and a simple inverse function of the expenditure share is selected. A second objective is to demonstrate that the estimated elasticities are sensitive to the units specified for the prices, and to show how price scales can be estimated as part of the model. "To Borrow or Not to Borrow: A Variation on the MacDougal-Kemp Theme" studies the impact of international capital movements on the conditional convergence of economies differing from each other only in initial wealth. We found that in assets, income, consumption and utility, convergence obtains, with and only with, the absence of international capital movement. When a rich country invests in a poor country, the balance of debt increases forever. Asset ownership is increased in all periods for the lender, and asset ownership of the borrower is deceased. Also, capital investment decreases the lender's utility for early periods, but increases it forever after a cross-over point. In contrast, the borrower's utility increases for early periods, but then decreases forever. "Valuing Reduced Risk for Households with Children or the Retired" presents a theoretical model of how families value risk and then exams family automobile purchases to impute the average Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for each type of family. Data for fatal accidents are used to estimate survival rates for individuals in different types of accidents, and the probabilities of having accidents for different types of vehicle. These models are used to determine standardized risks for

  3. A comparison of generalized multinomial logit, random parameters logit, wtp-space and latent class models to studying consumers' preferences for animal welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Kallas, Zein; Borrisser-Pairó,, Francesc; Martínez, Beatriz; Vieira, Ceferina; Panella-Riera, Nuria; Olivar, Maria Angels; Gil Roig, José María

    2016-01-01

    The European societies are requiring that animals to be raised as closely as possible to their natural conditions. The growing concerns about animal welfare is resulting in continuous modifications of regulations and policies that led to ban of a number of intensive farming methods. The European authorities consider the pig welfare as a priority issue. They are studying to ban surgical pig castration by 2018, which may seriously affect markets and consumers due to boar tainted-meat. This stud...

  4. Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

    2013-01-01

    In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinom...

  5. A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2010-01-01

    People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

  6. A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A. Stan; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2016-01-01

    of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market...... and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants...

  7. Facet-based analysis of vacation planning process : a binary mixed logit panel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

  8. Facet-based analysis of vacation planning processes : a binary mixed logit panel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, Anna; Kemperman, Astrid; Timmermans, Harry

    2012-01-01

    This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

  9. Identifying response styles: A latent-class bilinear multinomial logit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rosmalen, J.; van Herk, H.; Groenen, P.J.F.

    2010-01-01

    Respondents can vary strongly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit a variety of response styles, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article Is to investigate how response style and content of the items affect rating scale responses.

  10. A Smooth Transition Logit Model of the Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A.S.; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of specific......We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting...... of specification, including testing linearity, estimation and evaluation of these models is constructed. Nonlinear least squares estimation of the parameters of the model is discussed. Evaluation by misspecification tests is carried out using tests derived in a companion paper. The use of the modelling strategy...

  11. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. Methods: The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed...... about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing a forgiving infrastructure within a sustainable safety systems......Objective: The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives...

  12. Análisis del rendimiento academico mediante un modelo logit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María del Carmen Ibarra

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Este trabajo analiza el rendimiento académico de los estudiantes de la Facultad de Ingeniería de la Universidad Nacional de Misiones; la población objetivo está conformada por los alumnos de las cohortes 1999 a 2003 (589 estudiantes. Se define al rendimiento académico como el promedio de materias aprobadas anualmente y mediante la técnica estadística multivariada de Regresión Logística, se determina la incidencia que tienen diferentes factores de índole personal, socioeconómica y académica. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que las variables significativas del rendimiento académico son: el promedio de calificaciones del nivel medio, el tipo de Institución donde cursó estos estudios y el número de asignaturas aprobadas en el primer año de carrera, siendo este último factor el más relevante, destacando la importancia de esta primera etapa de la carrera en los posteriores resultados académicos del estudiante. The purpose of this work is to analyse the determining factors which influence students’ performance at university. The research has been carried out on five (5 engineering students’ cohorts (1999-2003 from Universidad Nacional de Misiones (UNaM and includes 589 students. The academic performance is defined as average subjects approved annually. By means of the Logistic Regression technique, we determine the impact of different personal, socioeconomic and academic factors. The main conclusion that can be drawn is that students’ performance, is related to the grade point average (GPA at high school, the kind of high school (public or private students had attended, and the number of passing subjects in their first year at university. The latter being the most important factor, emphasizing the importance of this first stage at the Universtity in the student’s academic performance.

  13. Wage mobility in Europe. A comparative analysis using restricted multinomial logit regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pavlopoulos, D.; Muffels, R.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. The paper is particularly focused on examining the impact of economic conditions, welfare state regimes and employment regulation on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear

  14. Generalized Partial Least Squares Approach for Nominal Multinomial Logit Regression Models with a Functional Covariate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaqshi, Amani Mohammed H.

    2017-01-01

    Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has attracted substantial attention for the last two decades. Within FDA, classifying curves into two or more categories is consistently of interest to scientists, but multi-class prediction within FDA is challenged in that most classification tools have been limited to binary response applications. The functional…

  15. When Do Campaigns Matter? Informed Votes, the Heteroscedastic Logit and the Responsiveness of Electoral Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Gerber, Elisabeth R.; Lupia, Arthur

    1993-01-01

    Previous research suggests that voters in mass elections tend to be badly informed. If these voters do not know enough about the relationship between the policy consequences of electoral outcomes and their own interests, then electoral outcomes may not provide meaningful expressions of voter interests. Can campaign activity affect the relationship between voter interests and electoral outcomes? To answer this question, we use survey data from 35 comparable elections and a new empirical method...

  16. Using Random Parameter Logit In Open And Distance Learning (ODL) Institutions In Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chooi Chea Chiam; SzeWei Loo

    2015-01-01

    Attention has been drawn to Open Distance Learning (ODL) as a mode for teaching and learning with the advancement in communication via the Internet. Education today has expanded the role of ICT in learning and knowledge generation, leveraging on Internet technology to transmit education across the country. Technology advancement and the introduction of ODL in educationhas created heated competition among these private higher education providers in Malaysia. ODL mode offers a flexible form of ...

  17. Using Random Parameter Logit In Open And Distance Learning (ODL Institutions In Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chooi Chea Chiam

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Attention has been drawn to Open Distance Learning (ODL as a mode for teaching and learning with the advancement in communication via the Internet. Education today has expanded the role of ICT in learning and knowledge generation, leveraging on Internet technology to transmit education across the country. Technology advancement and the introduction of ODL in educationhas created heated competition among these private higher education providers in Malaysia. ODL mode offers a flexible form of learning. Learners of ODL tend to be more challenging to fulfill their needs as they have other commitments in life, therefore, these learners will have certain criteria when choosing their learning education institution. The aim of this study is to investigate the vital attributes contributing in choosing an ODL higher education institution in Malaysia and to explore the consumers’ socioeconomic characteristicswith their willingness-to-pay fees. Although studies on the attributes that influence student choice of a university exist, these have failed to use the choice experiment method to examine the attributes influencing choice of ODL education provider. The sample population was 320 using face-to-face interview. The results would be able to provide ODL education providers in Malaysia with knowledge on making the right marketing strategy.

  18. A Multinomial Logit Approach to Estimating Regional Inventories by Product Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

    1998-01-01

    Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to distribute the volume on each FIA survey plot to product classes and...

  19. The Effect of Family Characteristics on Higher Education Attendance in India: A Multivariate Logit Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pramanik, Shaswati

    2015-01-01

    Family characteristics in terms of parental education and income are an important influence on individual's participation in higher education. In India it could be found that categorically those who are out of the higher education system belong to marginalized groups due to their economic class, caste, gender, religion etc. despite massive…

  20. Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit-Normal distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    and probability masses at the bounds. Both auto-regressive and conditional parametric auto-regressive models are considered for the dynamics of their location and scale parameters. Estimation is performed in a recursive least squares framework with exponential forgetting. The superiority of this proposal over......Very-short-term probabilistic forecasts, which are essential for an optimal management of wind generation, ought to account for the non-linear and double-bounded nature of that stochastic process. They take here the form of discrete–continuous mixtures of generalized logit–normal distributions...

  1. Mother logit analysis of substitution effects in consumer shopping destination choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    1991-01-01

    The feasibility of new shopping centers is largely related to their relative location and spending power in the trade area. Commercial developers, retailers, and retail planners need information about the likely impact of new retail developments on consumer choice behavior. Several types of consumer

  2. An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housh, Mashor; Ostfeld, Avi

    2015-05-15

    The problem of contamination event detection in water distribution systems has become one of the most challenging research topics in water distribution systems analysis. Current attempts for event detection utilize a variety of approaches including statistical, heuristics, machine learning, and optimization methods. Several existing event detection systems share a common feature in which alarms are obtained separately for each of the water quality indicators. Unifying those single alarms from different indicators is usually performed by means of simple heuristics. A salient feature of the current developed approach is using a statistically oriented model for discrete choice prediction which is estimated using the maximum likelihood method for integrating the single alarms. The discrete choice model is jointly calibrated with other components of the event detection system framework in a training data set using genetic algorithms. The fusing process of each indicator probabilities, which is left out of focus in many existing event detection system models, is confirmed to be a crucial part of the system which could be modelled by exploiting a discrete choice model for improving its performance. The developed methodology is tested on real water quality data, showing improved performances in decreasing the number of false positive alarms and in its ability to detect events with higher probabilities, compared to previous studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2007-01-01

    Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...

  4. Estimación bayesiana de efectos de red: el modelo Logit mixto

    OpenAIRE

    Chahuara Vargas, Paulo Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Los efectos o externalidades de red son factores que pueden condicionar las decisiones de contratación de los consumidores en favor de empresas ya establecidas y en contra de los nuevos competidores, pudiendo limitar la competencia efectiva y potencial de los mercados, en especial, en aquellas industrias donde el número de empresas es bajo y la entrada de nuevos competidores es poco frecuente. Por ello, es importante verificar su existencia y la magnitud de sus efectos sobre las decisiones de...

  5. Work Intensity of Households: Multinomial Logit Analysis and Correspondence Analysis for Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Šoltés

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Exclusion from the labour market is a serious social problem that is also addressed by the Europe 2020 strategy. While in the past the attention of statisticians and sociologists in the fight against poverty and social exclusion has concentrated mainly on income poverty and material deprivation, in recent times many studies and analyses are much more focused on work intensity as well. Households that use their work potential to less than 20%, have a very low work intensity, and members of such households are included into the population of people who are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Moreover, the low use of labour potential of households significantly increases the risk of income poverty and the threat of material deprivation. This article provides an analysis of work intensity levels of Slovak households depending on the factors that are monitored by the EU-SILC 2015. The impact of relevant factors is quantified by correspondence analysis and by multinomial logistic regression model.

  6. A metric for cross-sample comparisons using logit and probit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    relative to an arbitrary scale, which makes the coefficients difficult both to interpret and to compare across groups or samples. Do differences in coefficients reflect true differences or differences in scales? This cross-sample comparison problem raises concerns for comparative research. However, we......* across groups or samples, making it suitable for situations met in real applications in comparative research. Our derivations also extend to the probit and to ordered and multinomial models. The new metric is implemented in the Stata command nlcorr....

  7. Mixed multinomial logit model for out-of-home leisure activity choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper documents the design and results of a study on the factors influencing the choice of out-of-home leisure activities. Influencing factors seem related to socio-demographic characteristics, personal preferences, characteristics of the built environment and other aspects of the activities

  8. INCLUSION OF THE LATENT PERSONALITY VARIABLE IN MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELS USING THE 16PF PSYCHOMETRIC TEST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JORGE E. CÓRDOBA MAQUILÓN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Los modelos de demanda de viajes utilizan principalmente los atributos modales y las características socioeconómicas como variables explicativas. También se ha establecido que las actitudes y percepciones influyen en el comportamiento de los usuarios. Sin embargo, las variables psicológicas del individuo condicionan la conducta del usuario. En este estudio se incluyó la variable latente personalidad, en la estimación del modelo híbrido de elección discreta, el cual constituye una buena alternativa para incorporar los efectos de los factores subjetivos. La variable latente personalidad se evaluó con la prueba psicométrica 16PF de validez internacional. El artículo analiza los resultados de la aplicación de este modelo a una población de empleados y docentes universitarios, y también propone un camino para la utilización de pruebas psicométricas en los modelos híbridos de elección discreta. Nuestros resultados muestran que los modelos híbridos que incluyen variables latentes psicológicas son superiores a los modelos tradicionales que ignoran los efectos de la conducta de los usuarios.

  9. Financial gradualism and banking crises in North Africa region: an investigation by a panel logit model

    OpenAIRE

    KHATTAB, Ahmed; IHADIYAN, Abid

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. In order to overcome the troubles of the crisis in the seventies, North African countries have adopted financial liberalization policies to enhance their economic growth. Moreover, these policies have affected the stability of their banking systems. The purpose of this study is to test the impact of financial liberalization on the probability of appearance of banking crises which covers a sample of four countries of the North Africa region during the period 1970-2003 by using a pane...

  10. Reasons for not buying a car : a probit-selection multinomial logit choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, Y.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Generating and maintaining gradients of cell density and extracellular matrix (ECM) components is a prerequisite for the development of functionality of healthy tissue. Therefore, gaining insights into the drivers of spatial organization of cells and the role of ECM during tissue morphogenesis is

  11. The MDI Method as a Generalization of Logit, Probit and Hendry Analyses in Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    model involves nothing more than fitting a normal distribution function ( Hanushek and Jackson (1977)). For a given value of x, the probit model...preference shifts within the soft drink category. --For applications of probit models relevant for marketing, see Hausman and Wise (1978) and Hanushek and...Marketing Research" JMR XIV, Feb. (1977). Hanushek , E.A., and J.E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. Academic Press, New York (1977

  12. Minimum Wages and Teenagers' Enrollment--Employment Outcomes: A Multinominal Logit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; Marcus, Alan J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that the effect of minimum wage legislation on teenagers' education decisions is asymmetrical across family income classes, with the legislation inducing children from low-income families to reduce their levels of schooling and children from higher-income families to increase their educational attainment. (Author)

  13. Identifying Unknown Response Styles: A Latent-Class Bilinear Multinomial Logit Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); H. van Herk (Hester); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractRespondents can vary significantly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit varying degrees of response style, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article is to investigate to what extent rating scale responses show response

  14. Using Random Parameter Logit in Open and Distance Learning (ODL) Institutions in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiam, Chooi Chea; Loo, SzeWei

    2015-01-01

    Attention has been drawn to Open Distance Learning (ODL) as a mode for teaching and learning with the advancement in communication via the Internet. Education today has expanded the role of ICT in learning and knowledge generation, leveraging on Internet technology to transmit education across the country. Due to the advancement of technology and…

  15. Influence of social networks on latent choice of electric cars : a mixed logit specification using experimental design data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2016-01-01

    Electric cars can potentially make a substantial contribution to the reduction of pollution and noise. The size of this contribution depends on the acceptance of this new technology in the market. This paper reports on the design and results of an elaborate stated choice experiment to investigate

  16. Logit Model of Computer-Based Data-Driven Creative Idea Generation in the Industry and Service Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Hojjati

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Organizational creativity and employee idea generation have become important and essential elements of an organization’s success, as creativity results to increased performance. The need of increased creativity is evident in industrial and service companies. The main idea behind this paper is to analyze and demonstrate if accessing various types of data in certain ways and/or situations affects creative idea generation by the people involved in different industrial/service sectors, considering that now most of the employees use digital data. The current paper discusses how seven different factors are related to digital data affect creativity.

  17. What drives active transportation choices among the aging population? Comparing a Bayesian belief network and mixed logit modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    As people age, they typically face declining levels of physical ability and mobility. However, walking and bicycling can remain relatively easy ways to be physically active for older adults provided that the built environment facilitates these activities. The aim of this study is to investigate

  18. A multinomial-logit ordered-probit model for jointly analyzing crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    ' propensity to engage in various corrective maneuvers in the case of the critical event of vehicle travelling. Five lateral and speed control maneuvers are considered: “braking”, “steering”, “braking & steering”, and “other maneuvers”, in addition to a “no action” option. The analyzed data are retrieved from...... the United States National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the years 2005-2009. Results show (i) the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, and (ii) the link between drivers' attributes, risky driving behavior, road characteristics...

  19. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part II - Solving the restricted SUE for the logit family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Watling, David Paul; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new class of path-based solution algorithms to solve the Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium (RSUE), as introduced in Watling et al. (2015). The class allows a flexible specification of how the choice sets are systematically grown by considering congestion effects and how the flow...... real-life cases, in which we explore convergence patterns and choice set composition and size, for alternative specifications of the RSUE model and solution algorithm....

  20. Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generazio, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

  1. INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL DETERMINANTS OF INNOVATION CAPABILITY IN PORTUGUESE SERVICES FIRMS: A LOGIT APPROACH DETERMINANTES INTERNOS Y EXTERNOS DE LA CAPACIDAD DE INNOVAR DE LAS EMPRESAS DE SERVICIOS PORTUGUESAS: MODELO LOGIT DETERMINANTES INTERNOS E EXTERNOS DA CAPACIDADE INOVADORA DAS EMPRESAS DE SERVIÇOS PORTUGUESAS: MODELO LOGIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria José Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research examined the degree of importance of factors internal and external determinants of innovative company, under the Portuguese service companies. Based on the literature has built up a conceptual model and hypotheses were formulated several research have been tested empirically, using the secondary data provided by the Center for Science  and Higher Education (OCES, belonging to the 4th Community Innovation Survey (CIS 4, supervised by EUROSTAT. The method was to use logistic regression. According to the results, as greater financial investment in internal  research activities and development in acquisition of external knowledge and marketing activities in the greater propensity of firms to innovate at the level of services. The results allow a joint analysis of the factors that promote and restrict the innovative capacity of service companies, which identify the main determinants and improve the knowledge on innovation in services. The contribution of the results refers to the identification of which factors are really important in stimulating innovation in service firms.Esta investigación analizó el grado de importancia de los factores internos y externos determinantes de la capacidad innovadora empresarial en el ámbito de las empresas de servicios portuguesas. Con base en la literatura se construyó un  modelo conceptual y se formularon varias hipótesis de investigación que fueron testadas empíricamente, utilizándose los datos secundarios facultados por el “Observatorio de Ciencia y de la Enseñanza Superior” (OCES, pertenecientes a la 4ª Indagación Comunitaria a la Innovación (CIS 4, bajo la supervisión de EUROSTAT. El método utilizado fue la regresión logística. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, cuanto mayores sean las inversiones financieras en actividades internas de investigación y desarrollo, en adquisición de conocimientos externos y en actividades de marketing, mayor es la propensión de las empresas para innovar en los servicios. Los resultados permiten un análisis conjunto de los factores que impulsan y restringen la capacidad innovadora de las empresas de servicios, permitiendo identificar los principales determinantes  de esa capacidad e incrementar el conocimiento sobre la innovación en los servicios. La contribución de los resultados es la identificación de los factores que son realmente relevantes en el estímulo a la  innovación en las mencionadas empresas.Esta investigação analisou o grau de importância dos factores internos e externos determinantes da capacidade inovadora empresarial no âmbito das empresas de serviços portuguesas. Com base na literatura, construiu-se um modelo conceptual e formularam-se várias hipóteses de investigação que foram testadas empiricamente, utilizando-se os dados secundários facultados pelo “Observatório da Ciência e do Ensino Superior” (OCES, pertencentes ao 4º Inquérito Comunitário à Inovação (CIS 4, sob a supervisão do EUROSTAT. O método utilizado foi a regressão logística. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, quanto maiores forem os investimentos financeiros em actividades internas de investigação e desenvolvimento, em aquisição de conhecimentos externos e em actividades de marketing, maior será a propensão das empresas para inovar nos serviços. Os resultados permitem uma  análise conjunta dos factores que impulsionam e restringem a capacidade inovadora das empresas de serviços, possibilitando identificar seus principais determinantes e incrementar o conhecimento sobre a inovação dos serviços. A contribuição dos resultados é a identificação dos fatores que são realmente relevantes no estímulo à inovação nas empresas de serviços.

  2. Liberalización económica y crecimiento económico. Modelo Logit Multinomial aplicado a la metodología de "Doing Business"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Gómez Mejía

    2011-01-01

    de Doing Business explican cómo, cuando un país implementa estos criterios, incrementa las posibilidades de pasar a un nivel de ingreso per cápita superior, lo cual implica mayor crecimiento económico y potencial desarrollo económico.

  3. Logits and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! A Brief Look at the Simple Math of Logistic Regression and How It Can Improve Dissemination of Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, Jason W.

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These…

  4. Logit Model of Analysing the Factors Affecting the Adoption of Goat Raising Activity by Farmers in the Non-pastoral Centre Region of Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Folefack, AJZ.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Three years after the beginning of a goat project in the Centre region of Cameroon, the engagement of farmers in this activity has been timid. As this region is not a traditional pastoral zone, farmers have not yet incorporated the crop-livestock integration into their habits. Hence, this paper uses a logistic regression approach in order to analyse the factors affecting the adoption of goat raising activity by farmers of this locality. The computed odds ratio indicate that the practice of goat raising activity is significantly influenced by the farmer's age, gender, farming experience, practice of other livestock activities, frequency of contact with extension agents, access to credit and farm income. However, being a goat raiser does not depend on the farmer's marital status, education, farm size, household size, membership into a common initiative group. The study therefore recommends that the government authorities should give more attention to significant factors so as to popularize the goat raising activity in this region.

  5. ¿Permitían los estados financieros predecir los resultados de los tests de estrés de la banca española? Una aplicación del modelo logit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gutiérrez López

    2014-01-01

    La principal aportación de este trabajo es revisar y contrastar los resultados de las pruebas de resistencia aplicadas a la banca española, identificando ratios contables que prácticamente permiten llegar a sus mismas conclusiones.

  6. Factores determinantes de la utilización de instrumentos públicos para la gestión del riesgo en la industria vitivinícola chilena: un modelo logit binomial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Germán Lobos

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research was to identify the determining factors of the use of public instruments to manage risk in the Chilean wine industry. A binomial logistic regression model was proposed. Based on a survey of 104 viticulture and winemaking companies, a database was constructed between January and October 2007. The model was fitted using maximum likelihood estimation. The variables that turned out to be statistically significant were: risk of the wine price, availability of external consultancy and number of permanent workers. From the Public Management point of view, the main conclusion suggests that the use of public instruments could be increased if viticulturists and winemakers had more external counseling.

  7. Improving navigability on the Kromme River Estuary: A choice ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-03-14

    Mar 14, 2013 ... logit model, random parameters logit model. INTRODUCTION .... tives, is treated by the RUM as a stochastic, utility-maximising choice (Louviere et ..... comparable to the one estimated for a linear regression model. (the ones ...

  8. Access to and Competition Between Airports: A Case Study for the San Francisco Bay Area

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pels, E.; Nijkamp, P.; Rietveld, P.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper (nested) logit models that describe the combined access mode-airport-choice are estimated. A three level nested logit model is rejected. A two level nested logit model with the airport choice at the top level and the access mode choice at the lower level is preferred. From the

  9. Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhotra, N K

    1983-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.

  10. Random preferences towards bioenergy environmental externalities: a case study of woody biomass based electricity in the Southern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres Susaeta; Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; Evan Mercer

    2011-01-01

    This paper contrasts alternate methodological approaches of investigating public preferences, the random parameter logit (RPL) where tastes and preferences of respondents are assumed to be heterogeneous and the conditional logit (CL) approach where tastes and preferences remain fixed for individuals. We conducted a choice experiment to assess preferences for woody...

  11. 630 understanding farmers' response to climate variability in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and multinomial logit models. Farmers used multiple adaptation strategies; Crop Diversification (CD), Soil ... Increases in temperature, cloud ... and the effect of climate elements and their extreme ...

  12. Labour market transitions and job satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); A. van Dijk (Bram); J. de Koning (Jaap)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe paper investigates the relationship between job satisfaction and labour market transitions. Using a multinomial logit model, a model is estimated on the basis of individual data in which transitions are explained from individual characteristics, job characteristics, dissatisfaction

  13. Analysis of the USMC FITREP: Contemporary or Inflexible?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jobst, Mark; Palmer, Jeffrey

    2005-01-01

    .... Using data from the USMC Officer Accession Career file (MCCOAC), a logit model is used to estimate the effects of TBS preference and other officer characteristics on retention to the seven year mark...

  14. assessment of expenditure on food in nigerian urban households ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2014-04-02

    Apr 2, 2014 ... through a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, food security index, multiple linear regression and logit regression were employed to analyze data. ... It is a situation where households are not at risk of losing access.

  15. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-01-01

    particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence

  16. Determinants of Informal Employment: A Case of Tanzania's ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    industry. A Logit regression model is employed in estimating factors that influence the choice ... International Labour Organization (ILO) (2013), the informal economy ... This study uses primary data which was collected in six most vibrant urban.

  17. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  18. Original Research Original Research

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    2013-06-23

    Jun 23, 2013 ... conomics, College of Business and Economics, Wollega University, ost Box No: ... The Logit model is used to investigate .... providing subsidies, relief, and reducing taxes. The ... the minimum calorie requirement for survival.

  19. Modelling the spatio-temporal distribution of age-1 bay of biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) at spawning time [Distribución espacio-temporal de la edad 1 de anchoa del golfo de Bizkaia (Engraulis Encrasicolus) en el momento de puesta

    KAUST Repository

    Ibaibarriaga, Leire; Uriarte, André s; Laconcha, Urtzi; Bernal, Miguel C.; Begoñ a Santos, Maria; Chifflet, Marina; Irigoien, Xabier

    2013-01-01

    during the main spawning period based on adult samples from 15 daily egg production method surveys. The proportion of age-1 individuals was modelled using generalized additive models with a binomial distribution and a logit link in relation

  20. AFRREV IJAH, Vol.1 (4) November, 2012

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    First Lady

    Department of Banking & Finance, University of Benin, Nigeria. E-mail: ... discriminant analysis, ordinary least squares regression, correlation Matrix and Logit - Probit regression, ..... The use of financial statements for control and profit,ŗ In the ...

  1. A biclustering algorithm for binary matrices based on penalized Bernoulli likelihood

    KAUST Repository

    Lee, Seokho; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new biclustering method for binary data matrices using the maximum penalized Bernoulli likelihood estimation. Our method applies a multi-layer model defined on the logits of the success probabilities, where each layer represents a

  2. Collaboration and partnership in forest conservation: The role of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Collaboration and partnership in forest conservation: The role of ... The results of a logit estimation model indicates that six factors (gender, ... Surprisingly, perceptions of economic and environmental benefits emerged as negatively significant.

  3. Analysis of the Retention and Affiliation Factors Affecting the Active and Reserve Naval Nurse Corps

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Messmer, Scott J; Pizanti, Kimberly A

    2007-01-01

    ...) an empirical analysis to analyze characteristics of those who are retained in the active Naval Nurse Corps and those who affiliate with the reserve Naval Nurse Corps using multivariate logit regressions...

  4. Determinants of agricultural micro-credit repayment-evidence from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agro-Science ... for the study while descriptive statistics and multinomial binary logit model were employed for data analyses. ... on long term funds (without prejudice to the existing revolving loan mechanism) such as the pension contributions, ...

  5. Patterns and correlates of solid waste disposal practices in Dar es ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    collection. Key words: Solid waste, garbage, waste disposal, waste management, Multinomial Logit model. INTRODUCTION. Urbanization introduces society to a new, modern way of ..... Multinomial logistic estimation. .... The trend of using.

  6. Intimate Partner Violence and HIV Status among Ever-Married and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    African Journal of Reproductive Health December 2017; 21 (4): 45. ORIGINAL ... psychological, and sexual abuse, and controlling behavior, stalking ... caused by stress reaction is not so easily .... success (the logit of the probability) is fit to the.

  7. —: A Multicategory Brand Equity Model and Its Application at Allstate

    OpenAIRE

    Venkatesh Shankar; Pablo Azar; Matthew Fuller

    2008-01-01

    We develop a robust model for estimating, tracking, and managing brand equity for multicategory brands based on customer survey and financial measures. This model has two components: (1) offering value (computed from discounted cash flow analysis) and (2) relative brand importance (computed from brand choice models such as multinomial logit, heteroscedastic extreme value, and mixed logit). We apply this model to estimate the brand equity of Allstate—a leading insurance company—and its leading...

  8. Cognitive overload? An exploration of the potential impact of cognitive functioning in discrete choice experiments with older people in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milte, Rachel; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Lancsar, Emily; Miller, Michelle; Crotty, Maria

    2014-07-01

    This exploratory study sought to investigate the effect of cognitive functioning on the consistency of individual responses to a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study conducted exclusively with older people. A DCE to investigate preferences for multidisciplinary rehabilitation was administered to a consenting sample of older patients (aged 65 years and older) after surgery to repair a fractured hip (N = 84). Conditional logit, mixed logit, heteroscedastic conditional logit, and generalized multinomial logit regression models were used to analyze the DCE data and to explore the relationship between the level of cognitive functioning (specifically the absence or presence of mild cognitive impairment as assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination) and preference and scale heterogeneity. Both the heteroscedastic conditional logit and generalized multinomial logit models indicated that the presence of mild cognitive impairment did not have a significant effect on the consistency of responses to the DCE. This study provides important preliminary evidence relating to the effect of mild cognitive impairment on DCE responses for older people. It is important that further research be conducted in larger samples and more diverse populations to further substantiate the findings from this exploratory study and to assess the practicality and validity of the DCE approach with populations of older people. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Comparison of four mathematical models for the calculation of radioimmunoassay data of LH, FSH and GH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geier, T.; Rohde, W.

    1981-01-01

    Weighted linear logit-log regression, point-to-point logit-log interpolation, smoothing spline approximation and the four-parameter logistic function calculated by non-linear regression have been compared. The data for comparison have been obtained from two different pool-sera for each of the LH-, FSH- and GH-RIA and from the basal serum LH values of two populations of children. The Wilcoxon matched pairs signed rank test was used for comparison: For GH there is no significant difference between all methods, for FSH the weighted linear logit-log regression and spline approximation appeared to be equivalent, but for LH no unequivocal assertion can be made. There is no significant difference between the mathematical models for determination of hormone concentration within one assay run of a population as exemplified for LH. In addition, pool sera data were subjected to an analysis of variance and the comparison of the results revealed that the different models did not lead to different statements about assay performance. The point-to-point logit-log interpolation is proposed as most simple curvilinear approximation for assays which cannot be linearized by logit-log transformation. (author)

  10. Comparison on models for genetic evaluation of non-return rate and success in first insemination of the Danish Holstein cow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, C; Su, G

    2010-01-01

    The aim of is study was to compare a linear Gaussian model with logit model and probit model for genetic evaluation of non-return rate within 56 d after first-insemination (NRR56) and success in first insemination (SFI). The whole dataset used in the analysis contained 471,742 records from...... the EBV of proven bulls, obtained from the whole dataset and from a reduced dataset which only contains the first-crop daughters of sires; 2) χ2 statistic for the expected and observed frequency in a cross validation. Heritabilities estimated using linear, probit and logit models were 0.011, 0.014 and 0....... Model validation showed that there was no difference between probit model and logit model, but the two models were better than linear model in stability and predictive ability for genetic evaluation of NRR56 and SFI. However, based on the whole dataset, the correlations between EBV estimated using...

  11. Performance of various mathematical methods for computer-aided processing of radioimmunoassay results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, W.; Sandel, P.; Langfelder, Ch.; Knedel, M.

    1978-01-01

    The performance of 6 algorithms were compared for computer aided determination of radioimmunological end results. These were weighted and unweighted linear logit log regression; quadratic logit log regression, smoothing spline interpolation with a large and small smoothing factor, respectively, and polygonal interpolation and the manual curve fitting on the basis of three radioimmunoassays with different reference curve characteristics (digoxin, estriol, human chorionic somatomammotrophin (HCS)). Great store was set by the accuracy of the approximation at the intermediate points on the curve, i.e. those points that lie midway between two standard concentrations. These concentrations were obtained by weighing and inserted as unknown samples. In the case of digoxin and estriol the polygonal interpolation provided the best results, while the weighted logit log regression proved superior in the case of HCS. (Auth.)

  12. Centile estimation for a proportion response variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Abu; Rigby, Robert; Stasinopoulos, Mikis; Enea, Marco

    2016-03-15

    This paper introduces two general models for computing centiles when the response variable Y can take values between 0 and 1, inclusive of 0 or 1. The models developed are more flexible alternatives to the beta inflated distribution. The first proposed model employs a flexible four parameter logit skew Student t (logitSST) distribution to model the response variable Y on the unit interval (0, 1), excluding 0 and 1. This model is then extended to the inflated logitSST distribution for Y on the unit interval, including 1. The second model developed in this paper is a generalised Tobit model for Y on the unit interval, including 1. Applying these two models to (1-Y) rather than Y enables modelling of Y on the unit interval including 0 rather than 1. An application of the new models to real data shows that they can provide superior fits. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Performance of various mathematical methods for calculation of radioimmunoassay results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandel, P.; Vogt, W.

    1977-01-01

    Interpolation and regression methods are available for computer aided determination of radioimmunological end results. We compared the performance of eight algorithms (weighted and unweighted linear logit-log regression, quadratic logit-log regression, Rodbards logistic model in the weighted and unweighted form, smoothing spline interpolation with a large and small smoothing factor and polygonal interpolation) on the basis of three radioimmunoassays with different reference curve characteristics (digoxin, estriol, human chorionic somatomammotropin = HCS). Great store was set by the accuracy of the approximation at the intermediate points on the curve, ie. those points that lie midway between two standard concentrations. These concentrations were obtained by weighing and inserted as unknown samples. In the case of digoxin and estriol the polygonal interpolation provided the best results while the weighted logit-log regression proved superior in the case of HCS. (orig.) [de

  14. The importance of rating scale design in the measurement of patient-reported outcomes using questionnaires or item banks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadka, Jyoti; McAlinden, Colm; Gothwal, Vijaya K; Lamoureux, Ecosse L; Pesudovs, Konrad

    2012-06-26

    To investigate the effect of rating scale designs (question formats and response categories) on item difficulty calibrations and assess the impact that rating scale differences have on overall vision-related activity limitation (VRAL) scores. Sixteen existing patient-reported outcome instruments (PROs) suitable for cataract assessment, with different rating scales, were self-administered by patients on a cataract surgery waiting list. A total of 226 VRAL items from these PROs in their native rating scales were included in an item bank and calibrated using Rasch analysis. Fifteen item/content areas (e.g., reading newspapers) appearing in at least three different PROs were identified. Within each content area, item calibrations were compared and their range calculated. Similarly, five PROs having at least three items in common with the Visual Function (VF-14) were compared in terms of average item measures. A total of 614 patients (mean age ± SD, 74.1 ± 9.4 years) participated. Items with the same content varied in their calibration by as much as two logits; "reading the small print" had the largest range (1.99 logits) followed by "watching TV" (1.60). Compared with the VF-14 (0.00 logits), the rating scale of the Visual Disability Assessment (1.13 logits) produced the most difficult items and the Cataract Symptom Scale (0.24 logits) produced the least difficult items. The VRAL item bank was suboptimally targeted to the ability level of the participants (2.00 logits). Rating scale designs have a significant effect on item calibrations. Therefore, constructing item banks from existing items in their native formats carries risks to face validity and transmission of problems inherent in existing instruments, such as poor targeting.

  15. Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiiskinen, Urpo; Suominen-Taipale, Anna Liisa; Cairns, John

    2010-06-01

    This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.

  16. Identification and comparison of predictive models of rectal and bladder toxicity in the case of prostatic irradiation; Identification et comparaison de modeles predictifs de toxicite rectale et vesicale en cas d'irradiation prostatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnep, K.; Chira, C.; Le Prise, E.; Crevoisier, R. de [Centre Eugene-Marquis, Rennes (France); Zhu, J.; Simon, A.; Ospina Arango, J.D. [Inserm U642, Rennes (France); Messai, T.; Bossi, A. [Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Beckendorf, V. [Centre Alexis-Vautrin, Nancy (France)

    2011-10-15

    More than 400 patients have been treated by conformational radiation therapy for a localized prostate adenocarcinoma and some have been selected according to the availability of dose-volume histograms. Predictive models of rectal and bladder toxicity have been compared: LKB, Logit EUD and Poisson EUD for rectal toxicity, LKB, Logit EUD, Poisson EUD and Schultheiss for bladder toxicity. Results suggest that these models could be used during the inverse planning of intensity-modulated radiation therapy in order to decrease toxicity. Short communication

  17. Statistical aspects of radioimmunoassay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodbard, D.; Guardabasso, V.; Munson, P.J.

    1987-01-01

    The logit-log method, and the closely related four-parameter logistic method, are usually sufficient and optimal for routine RIA data processing. The authors compared the advantages and limitations of these approaches. They also provided a strategy to deal with the relatively rare cases where the logit-log and logistic methods. This requires consideration of the mass action law models, spline methods, some extensions of the logistic, and a new method, combining the virtues of the spline and the logistic families of methods

  18. Modelling Preference Heterogeneity for Theatre Tickets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldin, Andrea; Bille, Trine

    2018-01-01

    This article analyses the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich data set for 2010–2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theatre production faces multiple sources of price variation that involves a choice by the consumer...... among different ticket alternatives. Three modelling approaches are proposed in order to model ticket purchases: conditional logit with socio-demographic characteristics, nested logit and latent class. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers’ preference heterogeneity with respect...... of behaviour in the choice of theatre ticket....

  19. Analyzing the preference for non-exclusive forms of telecommuting: Modeling and policy implications

    OpenAIRE

    Bagley, Michael N.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    1997-01-01

    This study examines three models of the individual’s preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecommute from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted p2 = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted 2 =0.64). A nested logit model is...

  20. Determinantes de la pérdida esperada en la cartera de clientes de una Institución Prestadora de Servicios de Salud

    OpenAIRE

    Correa Barragán, Carlos Julio

    2016-01-01

    La estimación de la pérdida esperada en las cuentas por cobrar de una empresa y la modelación de las variables que la determinan constituyen una importante herramienta de medición de riesgo, con efecto directo en el desempeño del patrimonio -- En este trabajo se realiza la estimación mediante un modelo econométrico logit para datos agrupados, en una institución prestadora de servicios de salud ubicada en Colombia -- Se presenta una selección de cuatro modelos basados en la metodología logit p...

  1. The choice of forest site for recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agimass, Fitalew; Lundhede, Thomas; Panduro, Toke Emil

    2018-01-01

    logit as well as a random parameter logit model. The variables that are found to affect the choice of forest site to a visit for recreation include: forest area, tree species composition, forest density, availability of historical sites, terrain difference, state ownership, and distance. Regarding......In this paper, we investigate the factors that can influence the site choice of forest recreation. Relevant attributes are identified by using spatial data analysis from a questionnaire asking people to indicate their most recent forest visits by pinpointing on a map. The main objectives...

  2. On price equilibrium with multi-product firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we provide a result that shows existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in cases in which existent methods are problematic to apply. We employ this result to the model with simple logit demand, and show existence and uniqueness of price equilibrium when firms produce

  3. A Comparison of Alternative Specifications of the College Attendance Equation with an Extension to two-stage Selectivity-Correction Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmer, Michael J.

    2001-01-01

    Estimates a college-attendance equation for a common set of students (from the High School and Beyond Survey) using three popular econometric specifications: the multinomial logit, the ordered probit, and the bivariate probit. Estimated marginal effects do not differ significantly across the three specifications. Choice of specification may not…

  4. Comparison of IRT Likelihood Ratio Test and Logistic Regression DIF Detection Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atar, Burcu; Kamata, Akihito

    2011-01-01

    The Type I error rates and the power of IRT likelihood ratio test and cumulative logit ordinal logistic regression procedures in detecting differential item functioning (DIF) for polytomously scored items were investigated in this Monte Carlo simulation study. For this purpose, 54 simulation conditions (combinations of 3 sample sizes, 2 sample…

  5. Determinants of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Risk Perceptions in Youth Populations: A Multivariate Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denham, Bryan E.

    2009-01-01

    Grounded conceptually in social cognitive theory, this research examines how personal, behavioral, and environmental factors are associated with risk perceptions of anabolic-androgenic steroids. Ordinal logistic regression and logit log-linear models applied to data gathered from high-school seniors (N = 2,160) in the 2005 Monitoring the Future…

  6. STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Wendi L.; Love, H. Alan; Capps, Oral, Jr.

    1997-01-01

    Determinants of merger and acquisition activity in the food industry are analyzed using logit regression analysis. Factors affecting the food processing, food retailing and food service sectors are considered. Results indicate merger and acquisition activity in all three sectors are significantly influenced by antitrust activity, profitability and real gross domestic product.

  7. Forest resources, government policy, and investment location decisions of the forest products industry in the southern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changyou Sun; Daowei Zhang

    2010-01-01

    In this article, the results of an initial attempt to estimate the effects of state attributes on plant location and investment expenditure were presented for the forest products industry in the southern United States. A conditional logit model was used to analyze new plant births, and a time-series cross-section model to assess the total capital expenditure....

  8. Determinants of Students Academic Performance in Senior High ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A binary logit model is used to investigate the determinants of students' performance in the final high school examination. Questionnaires were administered to a sample of 1,129 final year students (614 boys and 515 girls) in ten senior high schools (SHSs) during the 2008/2009 academic year. Respondents were requested ...

  9. Part-Time Community-College Faculty and the Desire for Full-Time Tenure-Track Positions: Results of a Single Institution Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacoby, Dan

    2005-01-01

    According to data derived from a community-college survey in the state of Washington, the majority of part-time faculty prefer full-time work. Using a logit regression analysis, the study reported in this paper suggests that typical part-timers enter their part-time teaching situations with the intent of becoming full-time, but gradually become…

  10. Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings. The Case of Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Derviz, Alexis; Podpiera, J.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 1 (2008), s. 87-101 ISSN 1540-496X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : bank rating * CAMELS * ordered logit * panel data Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.611, year: 2008

  11. Anger and Desire for Retribution among Bereaved Parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drenovsky, Cynthia K.

    1994-01-01

    Logit results show suddenness of death contributes to likelihood parent will feel anger while anticipatory socialization to death or recency of death decreases odds of feeling anger toward child. All variables decrease likelihood parents will feel desire to punish someone for death of child. (BF)

  12. The Eldicus prospective, observational study of triage decision making in European intensive care units: Part I-European Intensive Care Admission Triage Scores (EICATS)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sprung, Charles L; Baras, Mario; Iapichino, Gaetano

    2012-01-01

    built. Values for variables were grouped into categories determined by the locally weighted least squares graphical method applied to the logit of the mortality and by univariate logistic regressions for reducing candidates for the score. Multivariate logistic regression was used to construct the final...

  13. Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

    2018-06-01

    As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

  14. A Study Comparing the Pedagogical Effectiveness of Virtual Worlds and of Classical Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    left from Houston, Texas en route to the McAllen Bus Station has stopped on the side of Highway 281 near by Monte Cristo . One of the passengers in...Regression: Explosion_1 versus RSP Assessment Link Function: Logit Response Information Variable Value Count Explosion_1 Yes 30...Variable Value Count Diff Score 1 15 2 12 3 3 4 26 5

  15. Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing for Indonesia Junior High School Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Daud, Muslem; Yang, Chih-Wei

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a curriculum-based multidimensional computerized adaptive test that was developed for Indonesia junior high school Biology. In adherence to the Indonesian curriculum of different Biology dimensions, 300 items was constructed, and then tested to 2238 students. A multidimensional random coefficients multinomial logit model was…

  16. Why entrepreneurs do not expect their businesses: lessons from Lithuania.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aidis, R.K.; Mickiewicz, T.

    2006-01-01

    This article applies a multinomial logit estimator to investigate which factors affect SME owners' expectations to grow their businesses in Lithuania. Our findings provide evidence that SME owners' human capital (education) matters and that growth expectations are positively related to exporting. In

  17. Determinants of adoption and productivity of improved rice varieties ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study employed adoption index, logit model and stochastic frontier model to assess the adoption status, its determinants and impact on farmers' productivity respectively. The results show that farmers have responded appreciably to intervention programme that promote the use of improved rice varieties with an adoption ...

  18. Farmers' Willingness to Pay for Private Irrigation Supply in Nandom ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated farmers willingness to pay (WTP) for private irrigation in Nandom district, Ghana. The study randomly sampled 236 farmers and analyzed data using descriptive statistics and ordered logit regression model. Results revealed that 94.5 percent of the farmers were WTP for private irrigation services with ...

  19. Animal welfare and eggs - cheap talk or money on the counter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Laura Mørch

    2011-01-01

    Our estimate revealed willingness to pay for animal welfare using a panel mixed logit model. We utilise a unique household level panel, combining real purchases with survey data on perceived public and private good attributes of different types of eggs. We estimate willingness to pay for organic...

  20. Factors Affecting Chinese Farmers' Decisions to Adopt a Water-Saving Technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herzfeld, T.; Glauben, T.; Zhang, Y.; Hu, B.

    2008-01-01

    Chinese farm households (N = 240) were interviewed to understand some of the factors affecting their adoption of a water-saving technology called the Ground Cover Rice Production System (GCRPS). A logit model was established on the basis of a survey to estimate the determinants of adoption and to

  1. Discrete choice models for commuting interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rouwendal, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir; Levkovich, Or

    An emerging quantitative spatial economics literature models commuting interactions by a gravity equation that is mathematically equivalent to a multinomial logit model. This model is widely viewed as restrictive because of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property that links sub...

  2. Does race matter in landowners' participation in conservation incentive programs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianbang Gan; Okwuldili O. Onianwa; John Schelhas; Gerald C. Wheelock; Mark R. Dubois

    2005-01-01

    This study investigated and compared the participation behavior of white and minority small landowners in Alabama in eight conservation incentive programs. Using nonparametric tests and logit modeling, we found both similarities and differences in participation behavior between these two landowner groups. Both white and minority landowners tended not to participate in...

  3. Exploring the Effects of Financial Aid on the Gap in Student Dropout Risks by Income Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rong; DesJardins, Stephen L.

    2008-01-01

    Using national survey data and discrete-time logit modeling, this research seeks to understand whether student aid mediates the relationship between parental income and student dropout behavior. Our analysis confirms that there is a gap in dropout rates for low-income students compared with their upper income peers, and suggests that some types of…

  4. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

  5. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

  6. Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most

  7. Small scale banana farmers' awareness level and adoption of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Descriptive statistics and binary logit regression were employed for data analyses. The results show that although majority of the farmers (96.67%) were aware of and had access to improved banana varieties, only 15.83% of them adopted the use of improved planting materials. Gros mitchel, Cavendish and sweet bananas ...

  8. Has the Euro Affected the Choice of Invoicing Currency?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligthart, J.E.; Werner, S.E.V.

    2010-01-01

    We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel data

  9. The Sex Difference in Depression across 29 Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopcroft, Rosemary L.; Bradley, Dana Burr

    2007-01-01

    The sex difference in depression is well documented in westernized, developed societies, although there has been little quantitative cross-cultural research on the topic. In this study, we use multilevel logit models to examine sex differences in depression across 29 countries using data from the World Values Survey. We find that in no country are…

  10. The joint choice of tenure, dwelling type, size and location: the effect of home-oriented versus culture-oriented lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Kaplan, Sigal

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates knowledge-workers’ housing preferences in terms of tenure, dwelling type, location and size. The analysis is conducted by applying a joint multinomial-logit ordered-response model to the housing choices of knowledgeworkers residing in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan region and w...

  11. Medical Student Financing and the Armed Forces Health Professions Scholarship Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    exclusive alternatives arises in a wide variety of contexts. The conditional logit technique, recently popularized by McFadden,, has become a widely...financing your medical school educacion this ear (76-77). Assume that you were eligible and that each of these alternatives had een available to you at

  12. Farmers' choice of cattle marketing channels under transaction cost ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The theoretical predictions of transaction cost economics were tested based on primary data collected from 230 cattle farm households in 13 communities of the Okhahlamba Local Municipality. The results of a multinomial logit regression revealed some unique insights. They showed that the probability of selling at auction ...

  13. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  14. The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonman, Tjeerd M.; Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.; Kuper, Gerard H.

    2012-01-01

    The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has aected many regions including Latin America. This paper focuses on currency crises in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. We estimate an Early Warning System, consisting of a dynamic factor model and an ordered logit model, with monthly data for 1990-2007. Ex ante

  15. Ordering the preference hierarchies for internal finance, bank laons, bond and share issue: evidence from Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, L.; Hinloopen, J.

    2003-01-01

    We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150 Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishing internal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bond issues, and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model, which

  16. Exploring residential energy consumers' willingness to accept and pay to offset their CO2-emission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Yingkui; Solgaard, Hans Stubbe

    2015-01-01

    to pay for carbon offset. Finally, the ordered logit model is used in modelling willing to pay for carbon offset. Findings The results show that there is significant support from residential energy consumer to offset their CO2 emission from electricity consumption. The WTP is motivated by consumers...

  17. 75 FR 42438 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Willingness To...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-21

    ... survey will be used to estimate values (willingness to pay, or WTP) derived by households for changes... statistically (using either a fixed or random effects mixed logit framework) to estimate total WTP for the... variation in WTP across different types of households, in different areas. As indicated in prior literature...

  18. Convertible security design and contract innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lewis, C.M.; Verwijmeren, P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies convertible security design for a sample of 814 issuers over the years 2000 through 2007. Using a nested logit model, we examine how firms choose fixed income claims and the method of payment. We find that fixed income claims are chosen to reduce corporate income taxes, minimize

  19. Elasticity of Demand for Tuition Fees at an Institution of Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langelett, George; Chang, Kuo-Liang; Ola' Akinfenwa, Samson; Jorgensen, Nicholas; Bhattarai, Kopila

    2015-01-01

    Using a conjoint survey of 161 students at South Dakota State University (SDSU), we mapped a probability-of-enrolment curve for SDSU students, consistent with demand theory. A quasi-demand curve was created from the conditional-logit model. This study shows that along with the price of tuition fees, distance from home, availability of majors, and…

  20. Influence of Immunology Knowledge on Healthcare and Healthy Lifestyle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu Kassim, Noor Lide; Saleh Huddin, Afiqah Binti; Daoud, Jamal Ibrahim; Rahman, Mohammad Tariqur

    2016-01-01

    Completing a course in Immunology is expected to improve health care knowledge (HCK), which in turn is anticipated to influence a healthy lifestyle (HLS), controlled use of health care services (HCS) and an awareness of emerging health care concerns (HCC). This cross-sectional study was designed to determine whether these interrelationships are empirically supported. Participants involved in this study were government servants from two ministries in Malaysia (n = 356) and university students from a local university (n = 147). Participants were selected using the non-random purposive sampling method. Data were collected using a self-developed questionnaire, which had been validated in a pilot study involving similar subjects. The questionnaire items were analyzed using Rasch analysis, SPSS version 21 and AMOS version 22. Results have shown that participants who followed a course in Immunology (CoI) had a higher primary HCK (Mean = 0.69 logit, SD = 1.29 logits) compared with those who had not (Mean = -0.27logit, SD = 1.26 logits). Overall, there were significant correlations among the HLS, the awareness of emerging HCC, and the controlled use of HCS (p Immunology at various levels of education and increasing the public awareness of emerging HCC might help to improve population health en masse. In addition, further investigations on the factors affecting HLS is required to provide a better understanding on the relationship between primary HCK and HLS.

  1. Dynamic Effects of Sponsoring : How Sponsorship Awareness Develops Over Time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walraven, Merel; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Koning, Ruud H.

    2014-01-01

    This study takes a longitudinal perspective to investigate sponsorship awareness in a multiple-year, international context pertaining to the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Champions League, a prestigious European soccer competition for club teams with worldwide exposure. A logit

  2. Dutch Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Broiler Welfare

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, Machiel; Zomer, Sigourney

    2017-01-01

    This article analyzes Dutch consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the welfare of broiler chickens and the consequences for nonhuman animal welfare policies. Using data from a discrete-choice experiment and a random parameter logit model, this study showed that consumers particularly value

  3. Patterns and correlates of solid waste disposal practices in Dar es ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examines the patterns and correlations of solid waste disposal practices among households in urbanized and populated Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania. The Tanzanian Household Budget Survey (HBS) data covering many households' characteristics was used. Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was applied to ...

  4. Job Satisfaction And Family Happiness : The Part-Time Work Problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booth, A.L.; van Ours, J.C.

    2007-01-01

    Using fixed effects ordered logit estimation, we investigate the relationship between part-time work and working hours satisfaction; job satisfaction; and life satisfaction. We account for interdependence within the family using data on partnered men and women from the British Household Panel

  5. Classification rates: non‐parametric verses parametric models using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research sought to establish if non parametric modeling achieves a higher correct classification ratio than a parametric model. The local likelihood technique was used to model fit the data sets. The same sets of data were modeled using parametric logit and the abilities of the two models to correctly predict the binary ...

  6. Volunteer labor supply in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, Jouke; Boin, Ronald

    1993-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to provide insight in the determinants of the decision to participate (yes or no) in volunteer work and the decision with regard to the number of hours spent on volunteer work. These decisions are empirically analyzed with Dutch microdata for 1982 by means of a logit

  7. Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

    2009-01-01

    This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a

  8. Tapping Transaction Costs to Forecast Acquisition Cost Breaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    experience a cost breach. In our medical example, we could use survival analysis to identify risk fac- tors, such as obesity , that might indicate a greater... exogenous variables on the probability of a dichotomous outcome, such as whether or not a cost breach occurs in any given program year. Logit is

  9. Contest success function with the possibility of a draw: axiomatization

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Blavatskyy, Pavlo R.

    -, č. 208 (2004), s. 1-21 ISSN 1424-0459 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : contest success function * logit * irrelevant alternatives Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.iew.unizh.ch/wp/iewwp208.pdf

  10. An analysis of factors affecting participation behavior of limited resource farmers in agricultural cost-share programs in Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okwudili Onianwa; Gerald Wheelock; Buddhi Gyawali; Jianbang Gan; Mark Dubois; John Schelhas

    2004-01-01

    This study examines factors that affect the participation behavior of limited resource farmers in agricultural cost-share programs in Alabama. The data were generated from a survey administered to a sample of limited resource farm operators. A binary logit model was employed to analyze the data. Results indicate that college education, age, gross sales, ratio of owned...

  11. Assessing farmer involvement in collective action for enhancing the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing farmer involvement in collective action for enhancing the sorghum value chain in Soroti, Uganda. ... in six sub-counties of Soroti, Uganda, where associations are established. A binomial logit regression model was employed to ascertain socio-economic factors that influenced membership to farmer associations.

  12. Life Satisfaction among Turkish and Moroccan Immigrants in the Netherlands: The Role of Absolute and Relative Income

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokdemir, Ozge; Dumludag, Devrim

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the role of several socio-economic and non-economic factors such as absolute and relative income, education and religion to explain the differences of happiness levels of Turkish and Moroccan Immigrants in the Netherlands by using ordered logit model. We focus on members of the Moroccan and Turkish communities, as…

  13. Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiannis Anagnostopoulos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

  14. Measuring Developmental Students' Mathematics Anxiety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Yanqing

    2016-01-01

    This study conducted an item-level analysis of mathematics anxiety and examined the dimensionality of mathematics anxiety in a sample of developmental mathematics students (N = 162) by Multi-dimensional Random Coefficients Multinominal Logit Model (MRCMLM). The results indicate a moderately correlated factor structure of mathematics anxiety (r =…

  15. The Impact of School Socioeconomic Status on Student-Generated Teacher Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnew, Steve

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses ordinary least squares, logit and probit regressions, along with chi-square analysis applied to nationwide data from the New Zealand ratemyteacher website to establish if there is any correlation between student ratings of their teachers and the socioeconomic status of the school the students attend. The results show that students…

  16. Determinants of Use of Indigenous Fish Processing Practices in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Descriptive statistics was used to analyze the socio- economic features of the fish processors while the logit model was used to capture the socio-economic factors ... education (β=1.90), household size (β=2.48), FAI (β=2.80), consumers preference (β=3.37), processing tradition (β=3.74), VFP (β=0.02) and cosmopoliteness ...

  17. Combining RP and SP data while accounting for large choice sets and travel mode

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Olsen, Søren Bøye; Stenger, Anne

    2015-01-01

    set used for site selection modelling when the actual choice set considered is potentially large and unknown to the analyst. Easy access to forests also implies that around half of the visitors walk or bike to the forest. We apply an error-component mixed-logit model to simultaneously model the travel...

  18. Experimental investigation of consumer price evaluations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe develop a procedure to collect experimental choice data for estimating consumer preferences with a special focus on consumer price evaluations. For this purpose we employ a heteroskedastic mixed logit model that measures the effect of the way prices are specified on the variance of

  19. Does Education Affect Happiness? Evidence for Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunado, Juncal; de Gracia, Fernando Perez

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we study the impact of education on happiness in Spain using individual-level data from the European Social Survey, by means of estimating Ordinal Logit Models. We find both direct and indirect effects of education on happiness. First, we find an indirect effect of education on happiness through income and labour status. That is, we…

  20. Dropout from Secondary Education: All's Well That Begins Well

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Witte, Kristof; Rogge, Nicky

    2013-01-01

    Despite the increased attention to students leaving secondary education without a diploma numerous students still dropout yearly. This paper makes a distinction between the "individual perspective" and the "institutional perspective" of dropping out. The former is explored by multinominal logit models. We observe that…

  1. Saving for Success: Financial Education and Savings Goal Achievement in Individual Development Accounts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinstead, Mary L.; Mauldin, Teresa; Sabia, Joseph J.; Koonce, Joan; Palmer, Lance

    2011-01-01

    Using microdata from the American Dream Demonstration, the current study examines factors associated with savings and savings goal achievement (indicated by a matched withdrawal) among participants of individual development account (IDA) programs. Multinomial logit results show that hours of participation in financial education programs, higher…

  2. An Application of Cognitive Diagnostic Assessment on TIMMS-2007 8th Grade Mathematics Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toker, Turker; Green, Kathy

    2012-01-01

    The least squares distance method (LSDM) was used in a cognitive diagnostic analysis of TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) items administered to 4,498 8th-grade students from seven geographical regions of Turkey, extending analysis of attributes from content to process and skill attributes. Logit item positions were…

  3. Networks and Selection in International Migration to Spain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neubecker, Nina; Smolka, Marcel; Steinbacher, Anne

    This paper provides new evidence on migrant networks as determinants of the scale and skill structure of migration, using aggregate data from a recent migration boom to Spain. We develop a three-level nested multinomial logit migration model. Our model accommodates varying degrees of similarity...

  4. Dropout from secondary education: All's well that begins well

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Witte, K.

    2010-01-01

    Despite the increased attention to students leaving secondary education without a diploma, numerous students dropout yearly. This paper makes a distinction between the individual perspective and the institutional perspective of dropping out. The former is explored by multinominal logit models, with

  5. Working hours and depressive symptoms over 7 years: evidence from a Korean panel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Seoyeon

    2018-04-01

    This study aims to examine how working hours influence depressive symptoms and the association between working hours and depressive symptoms differently across genders. The sample consists of salaried workers aged 25-64 years who participated in two consecutive waves of the seven-wave Korean Welfare Panel Study (2007-2013) (n = 6813 individuals, 27,986 observations) which is a survey of a nationally representative sample of the South Korean population. I apply logit regression and fixed-effects logit regression to examine the causal relation between (intra-)individual changes of working hours and depressive symptoms over a 7-year period. Results from logit model and fixed-effects logit model show that less than 30 h of work per week and more than 60 h of work per week are associated with significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms. Sex-stratified analyses reveal that women who worked over 60 h per week were at increased risk of showing depressive symptoms compared with women who worked 30-40 h per week. No significant increase in depressive symptoms was seen in men who worked more than 60 h per week. However, men working less than 30 h per week are more likely to report higher levels of depressive symptoms. These results suggest that work arrangement affects the mental health of men and women differently.

  6. Gender, Alcohol Consumption Patterns, and Engagement in Sexually Intimate Behaviors among Adolescents and Young Adults in Nha Trang, Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaljee, Linda M.; Green, Mackenzie S.; Zhan, Min; Riel, Rosemary; Lerdboon, Porntip; Lostutter, Ty W.; Tho, Le Huu; Luong, Vo Van; Minh, Truong Tan

    2011-01-01

    A randomly selected cross-sectional survey was conducted with 880 youth (16 to 24 years) in Nha Trang City to assess relationships between alcohol consumption and sexual behaviors. A timeline followback method was employed. Chi-square, generalized logit modeling and logistic regression analyses were performed. Of the sample, 78.2% male and 56.1%…

  7. An Analysis of Losses to the Southern Commercial Timberland Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ian A. Munn; David Cleaves

    1998-01-01

    Demographic and physical factors influencing the conversion of commercial timberland iu the south to non-forestry uses between the last two Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) surveys were investigated. GIS techniques linked Census data and FIA plot level data. Multinomial logit regression identified factors associated with losses to the timberland base. Conversion to...

  8. Easy and flexible mixture distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Mabit, Stefan L.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a method to generate flexible mixture distributions that are useful for estimating models such as the mixed logit model using simulation. The method is easy to implement, yet it can approximate essentially any mixture distribution. We test it with good results in a simulation study...

  9. Heterogeneity in urban park use of aging visitors: a latent class analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2006-01-01

    This study describes and predicts urban parks use patterns for various age groups, with specific attention to the growing group of older adults. Park use intensity of various age groups is described. Subsequently, a multinomial logit model is estimated to describe urban park choice as a function of

  10. Precision of radioimmunoassays by various types of data processing systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ujiie, Morimichi

    1979-01-01

    The following are the result of the investigation of the precision of radioimmunoassays by various types of data processing systems presently performed in Japan. Chose 50 facilities, where 10 facilities of clinical laboratories were included. Tested 334, 485 cases per month, which corresponds to 40% of the total number of the cases treated all over the country. It was known that the data of 74% of all facilities and 94% of all tests were being processed by computing machines. In 66 times of data processing of insulin and T3 measurements, 32 were performed by the hyperbola method, 11 by the log-logit curve method of secondary degree, 9 by the logistic curve method and 8 by the log-logit curve method of first degree. Practically in more than 90% of all cases were processed by these 4 types of curve methods. In insulin measurements of many standard points (8 points), favourable results could be obtained by the logistic curve method. On the contrary, in T3 measurements of fewer standard points (5 points), the results from the method of log-logit curve of secondary degree were good. Favourable results of both insulin and T3 measurements could be obtained by the hyperbola method. While, in the insulin measurement by the method of log-logit curve of first degree, the values were a bit lower in the higher and lower concentration ranges, and 3 -- 4% higher than the actual values in the middle concentration range. (author)

  11. A three-parameter langmuir-type model for fitting standard curves of sandwich enzyme immunoassays with special attention to the α-fetoprotein assay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kortlandt, W.; Endeman, H.J.; Hoeke, J.O.O.

    In a simplified approach to the reaction kinetics of enzyme-linked immunoassays, a Langmuir-type equation y = [ax/(b + x)] + c was derived. This model proved to be superior to logit-log and semilog models in the curve-fitting of standard curves. An assay for α-fetoprotein developed in our laboratory

  12. Oracle or Obstacle?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaarst Andersen, Kristina

    Boundary spanning is one way to accumulate diverse knowledge. This paper examines the conditions under which boundary spanning increases the value of project participants contributions to team production. Statistical findings from logit regressions show that the cost-benefit tradeoff of boundary ...

  13. The determinants of the location of foreign direct investment in UK regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitropoulou, Dimitra; McCann, Philip; Burke, Simon P.

    2013-01-01

    This article employs a database of over 2000 observations of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects in UK regions. We analyse this data by means of various multinomial and conditional logit models in order to identify the major determinants of the location choices of these inward investments.

  14. Rational inattention dynamics: inertia and delay in decision-making

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Steiner, Jakub; Stewart, C.; Matějka, Filip

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 85, č. 2 (2017), s. 521-553 ISSN 0012-9682 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : rational inattention * stochastic choice * dynamic logit Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 3.379, year: 2016

  15. Entrepreneurial engagement levels in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Grilo (Isabel); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractA multinomial logit model and survey data from the 25 EU member states and the US are used to establish the effect of demographic and other variables on various entrepreneurial engagement levels. These engagement levels range from never thought about starting a business to thinking

  16. Mobility in the Urban Labor Market : A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gong, X.; van Soest, A.H.O.; Villagomez, E.

    2000-01-01

    We analyze mobility in urban Mexico between three labor market states: working in the formal sector, working in the informal sector, and not working. We use a dynamic multinomial logit panel data model with random effects, explaining the labor market state of each individual during each time period.

  17. A day in the city : using conjoint choice experiments to model urban tourists' choice of activity packages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1995-01-01

    This paper introduces and tests a conjoint choice experiment approach to modeling urban tourists' choice of activity packages. The joint logit model is introduced as a tool to model choices between combinations of activities and an experimental design approach is proposed that includes attributes

  18. To err is human

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tumennasan, Norovsambuu

    We study the classical implementation problem when players are prone to make mis takes. To capture the idea of mistakes, Logit Quantal Response Equilibrium (LQRE) is used, and we consider a case in which players are almost rational, i.e., the sophistication level of players, , approaches innity. ...

  19. Employees’ Preferences for more or fewer Working Hours. The Effects of Usual, Contractual and Standard Working Time, Family Phase and Household Characteristics, and Job Satisfaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tijdens, K.

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work

  20. Factors affecting the choice of cropping systems in Kebbi State ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the factors that influence choice of cropping systems in Kebbi State Nigeria. The technique applied in the study was Logit regression. Data to conduct the research was obtained mainly from primary sources through a questionnaire survey of 256 farmers, comprising 98 monocroppers and 158 ...

  1. UPTRANS: an incremental transport model with feedback for quick-response strategy evaluation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Venter, C

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the development of a prototype transport model to be used for high-level evaluation of a potentially large number of alternative land use-transport scenarios. It uses advanced logit modelling to capture travel behaviour change...

  2. Social Entrepreneurship and Performance: The Role of Perceived Barriers and Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Hoogendoorn (Brigitte); P.W. van der Zwan (Peter); A.R. Thurik (Roy)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates if and in what way social entrepreneurs are hampered in turning their efforts into sustainable organizations. Using binary logit regressions and unique data containing approximately 26,000 individual-level data points for 36 countries, this study assesses the

  3. Economic Analysis of Job-Related Attributes in Undergraduate Students' Initial Job Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yanhong H.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.

    2014-01-01

    Economic tradeoffs students place on location, salary, distances to natural resource amenities, size of the city where the job is located, and commuting times for their first college graduate job are estimated using a mixed logit model for a sample of Texas A&M University students. The Midwest is the least preferred area having a mean salary…

  4. Them That's Got: How Tie Formation in Partnership Networks Gives High Schools Differential Access to Social Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridwell-Mitchell, E. N.

    2017-01-01

    School partnerships are important sources of school social capital. Schools may have unequal access to social capital due to the pattern of relationships in the school-partner network. Using data on school resource needs, sociometric measures, and a set of multilevel logit models, the results of a study of 211 New York City public high schools and…

  5. Users evaluation of transport mode characteristics with special attention to public transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Berenos, M.

    2007-01-01

    The paper focuses on the influence of public transport use on the evaluation of transport mode characteristics. Based on stated choice data, several multinomial logit models that include parameters representing differences between users and non-users of public transport are estimated. The estimation

  6. Choice experiments versus revealed choice models : a before-after study of consumer spatial shopping behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to compare a set of multinomial logit models derived from revealed choice data and a decompositional choice model derived from experimental data in terms of predictive success in the context of consumer spatial shopping behavior. Data on consumer shopping choice

  7. Estimation of social value of statistical life using willingness-to-pay method in Nanjing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhao; Liu, Pan; Xu, Xin

    2016-10-01

    Rational decision making regarding the safety related investment programs greatly depends on the economic valuation of traffic crashes. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the social value of statistical life in the city of Nanjing in China. A stated preference survey was conducted to investigate travelers' willingness to pay for traffic risk reduction. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at stations, shopping centers, schools, and parks in different districts in the urban area of Nanjing. The respondents were categorized into two groups, including motorists and non-motorists. Both the binary logit model and mixed logit model were developed for the two groups of people. The results revealed that the mixed logit model is superior to the fixed coefficient binary logit model. The factors that significantly affect people's willingness to pay for risk reduction include income, education, gender, age, drive age (for motorists), occupation, whether the charged fees were used to improve private vehicle equipment (for motorists), reduction in fatality rate, and change in travel cost. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to generate the distribution of value of statistical life (VSL). Based on the mixed logit model, the VSL had a mean value of 3,729,493 RMB ($586,610) with a standard deviation of 2,181,592 RMB ($343,142) for motorists; and a mean of 3,281,283 RMB ($505,318) with a standard deviation of 2,376,975 RMB ($366,054) for non-motorists. Using the tax system to illustrate the contribution of different income groups to social funds, the social value of statistical life was estimated. The average social value of statistical life was found to be 7,184,406 RMB ($1,130,032). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Substitution between energy, capital and labour within industrial companies: A micro panel data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnberg, Soeren; Bjoerner, Thomas Bue

    2007-01-01

    Based on micro panel data for industrial companies, we estimate factor demand models with electricity, other energy, labour and machine capital as flexible inputs using both the translog and the linear logit specification. As opposed to the few previous micro (cross-section) data studies we find that both electricity and other energy are complements with capital. Substitution between electricity and other energy is limited. The own-price elasticity for electricity is -0.21 in the translog model and -0.19 in the linear logit model. The corresponding own-price elasticities are -0.45 and -0.23 for other energy, -0.08 and -0.05 for labour and -0.45 and -0.34 for capital. (author)

  9. Longitudinal analysis of categorical epidemiological data: a study of Three Mile Island.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienberg, S E; Bromet, E J; Follmann, D; Lambert, D; May, S M

    1985-11-01

    The accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in 1979 led to an unprecedented set of events with potentially life threatening implications. This paper focusses on the analysis of a longitudinal study of the psychological well-being of the mothers of young children living within 10 miles of the plant. The initial analyses of the data utilize loglinear/logit model techniques from the contingency table literature, and involve the fitting of a sequence of logit models. The inadequancies of these analyses are noted, and a new class of mixture models for logistic response structures is introduced to overcome the noted shortcomings. The paper includes a brief outline of the methodology relevant for the fitting of these models using the method of maximum likelihood, and then the model is applied to the TMI data. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of the substantive implications of the mixture model analysis.

  10. Environmental income improves household-level poverty assessments and dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walelign, Solomon Zena; Charlery, Lindy Callen; Smith-Hall, Carsten

    2016-01-01

    Household-level poverty assessments and analyses of poverty dynamics in developing countries typically do not include environmental income. Using household (n = 427 in 2006, 2009 and 2012) total income panel data sets, with and without environmental income, from Nepal, we analysed the importance...... of environmental income in household-level poverty assessments (Foster-Greer-Thorbecke indices) and dynamics (movements in the Poverty Transition Matrix). Random effects logit and ordered logit models were applied to estimate variables covarying with poverty categories and compared for annual household incomes...... with and without environmental income. Using the without environmental income data set significantly changed the number of households classified as poor, as well as rates of movements in and out of poverty. Excluding household-level environmental income also distorted estimation of covariates of poverty incidence...

  11. MEASURING CAR DRIVERS’ WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR IMPROVED INTERCITY TRANSPORTATION SERVICE: A CASE STUDY IN LIBYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MANSSOUR A. ABDULASALM MISKEEN

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The current study investigates solutions to optimize the intercity highway network and to facilitate the understanding of the transport mode of Libyans, according to the proposed transport policies, in terms of reducing car usage for intercity trips. In this study, different models namely the logit and spike models are applied to estimate the mean of the willingness to pay (WTP value for some proposed policies in order to be able to compare the results from each policy and analyses to what extent that each was regarded as suitable for our data characteristics. A large number of respondents were unwilling to pay any money for the different proposed policies on transportation. Therefore, the Spike model was used to avoid errors in estimation and create a WTP pricing model for the different proposed policies on transportation. The overall results indicate that the spike model outperforms the logit model significantly.

  12. Heterogeneity in the WTP for recreational access

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, Danny; Vedel, Suzanne Elizabeth; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    In this study we have addressed appropriate modelling of heterogeneity in willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental goods, and have demonstrated its importance using a case of forest access in Denmark. We compared WTP distributions for four models: (1) a multinomial logit model, (2) a mixed logit...... model assuming a univariate Normal distribution, (3) or assuming a multivariate Normal distribution allowing for correlation across attributes, and (4) a mixture of two truncated Normal distributions, allowing for correlation among attributes. In the first two models mean WTP for enhanced access...... was negative. However, models accounting for preference heterogeneity found a positive mean WTP, but a large sub-group with negative WTP. Accounting for preference heterogeneity can alter overall conclusions, which highlights the importance of this for policy recommendations....

  13. Impacts of geographical locations and sociocultural traits on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuong, Quan Hoang

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents new results obtained from investigating the data from a 2015 Vietnamese entrepreneurs' survey, containing 3071 observations. Evidence from the estimations using multinomial logits was found to support relationships between several sociocultural factors and entrepreneurship-related performance or traits. Specifically, those relationships include: (a) Active participation in entrepreneurs' social networks and reported value of creativity; (b) CSR-willingness and reported entrepreneurs' perseverance; (c) Transforming of sociocultural values and entrepreneurs' decisiveness; and, (d) Lessons learned from others' failures and perceived chance of success. Using geographical locations as the control variate, evaluations of the baseline-category logits models indicate their varying effects on the outcomes when combined with the sociocultural factors that are found to be statistically significant. Empirical probabilities that give further detail about behavioral patterns are provided; and toward the end, the paper offers some conclusions with some striking insights and useful explanations on the Vietnamese entrepreneurship processes.

  14. DESEMPEÑO FINANCIERO DE LAS EMPRESAS: UNA PROPUESTA DE RNA // FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF FIRMS: A PROPOSAL FOR CLASSIFICATION ANN // DESEMPENHO FINANCEIRO DAS EMPRESAS: UMA PROPOSTA DE CLASSIFICAÇÃO POR RNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Morales Castro

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Mediante el uso de redes neuronales artificiales [RNA] se propuso mejorar la precisión de clasificación de las empresas dentro de la BMV, en específico del sector comercial en comparación con las técnicas de análisis discriminante múltiple [ADM]  y los modelos logit. Se desarrollaron más de cincuenta arquitecturas neuronales, y la red neuronal artificial  que resulto fue la de arquitectura MLP 6:12:2 basada en algoritmos de aprendizaje de retro-propagación hacia atrás. Los resultados encontrados con la técnica de [RNA] arrojaron que esta técnica tiene un mejor pronóstico de evaluación y de clasificación que la obtenida por las técnicas ADM y Logit.

  15. Energy consumption and economic growth—New evidence from meta analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ping-Yu; Chen, Sheng-Tung; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2012-01-01

    The causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth have given rise to much discussion but remain controversial. Alternative data sets based on different time spans, countries, energy policies and econometric approaches result in diverse outcomes. A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model with 174 samples governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption is applied here to investigate the major factors that affect these controversial outcomes. The empirical results have demonstrated how the time spans, subject selections including GDP and energy consumption, econometric models, and tools for greenhouse gases emission reduction characteristics significantly affect these controversial outcomes. - Highlights: ► The controversial casual relationships between energy consumption and GDP are investigated. ► A meta analysis using a multinomial logit model is adopted. ► 74 studies governing the relationships between GDP and energy consumption was collected. ► The empirical results show how the probability of major factors affects such relationships.

  16. The Incidence of Unemployment: Identifying Quits and Layoffs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Rosholm, Michael

    1997-01-01

    We analyse what determines the incidence of unemployment among Danish employees by estimation of a logit model for becoming unemployed. Our data is incomplete in the sense that we do not observe whether a transition was caused by the person quitting or being laid off, so we apply the EM-algorithm......We analyse what determines the incidence of unemployment among Danish employees by estimation of a logit model for becoming unemployed. Our data is incomplete in the sense that we do not observe whether a transition was caused by the person quitting or being laid off, so we apply the EM......-algorithm to this problem. The models are extended to account for the panel data structure of the data set by including random effects. We use exclusion restrictions to identify quits and lay offs. We find many quitters among young and old women but only few among men....

  17. A joint model of mode and shipment size choice using the first generation of Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique Stinson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A behavior-based supply chain and freight transportation model was developed and implemented for the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG and Pima Association of Governments (PAG. This innovative, data-driven modeling system simulates commodity flows to, from and within Phoenix and Tucson Megaregion and is used for regional planning purposes. This paper details the logistics choice component of the system and describes the position and functioning of this component in the overall framework. The logistics choice model uses a nested logit formulation to evaluate mode choice and shipment size jointly. Modeling decisions related to integrating this component within the overall framework are discussed. This paper also describes practical insights gained from using the 2012 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata (released in 2015, which was the principal data source used to estimate the joint shipment size-mode choice nested logit model. Finally, the validation effort and related lessons learned are described.

  18. Reviews Equipment: Data logger Book: Imagined Worlds Equipment: Mini data loggers Equipment: PICAXE-18M2 data logger Books: Engineering: A Very Short Introduction and To Engineer Is Human Book: Soap, Science, & Flat-Screen TVs Equipment: uLog and SensorLab Web Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    WE RECOMMEND Data logger Fourier NOVA LINK: data logging and analysis To Engineer is Human Engineering: essays and insights Soap, Science, & Flat-Screen TVs People, politics, business and science overlap uLog sensors and sensor adapter A new addition to the LogIT range offers simplicity and ease of use WORTH A LOOK Imagined Worlds Socio-scientific predictions for the future Mini light data logger and mini temperature data logger Small-scale equipment for schools SensorLab Plus LogIT's supporting software, with extra features HANDLE WITH CARE CAXE110P PICAXE-18M2 data logger Data logger 'on view' but disappoints Engineering: A Very Short Introduction A broad-brush treatment fails to satisfy WEB WATCH Two very different websites for students: advanced physics questions answered and a more general BBC science resource

  19. Testing Benefits Transfer of Forest Recreation Values over a 20-year time Horizon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Termansen, Mette; Jensen, F.S.

    2007-01-01

    We conduct a functional benefit transfer over 20 years of total willingness to pay based on car-borne forest recreation in 52 forests, using a mixed logit specification of a random utility model and geographic information systems to allow heterogeneous preferences across the population and for he......We conduct a functional benefit transfer over 20 years of total willingness to pay based on car-borne forest recreation in 52 forests, using a mixed logit specification of a random utility model and geographic information systems to allow heterogeneous preferences across the population...... and for heterogeneity over space. Results show that preferences for some forest attributes, such as species diversity and age, as well as transport mode have changed significantly over the period. Updating the transfer model with present total demand for recreation improves the error margins by an average of 282......%. Average errors of the best transfer model remain 25%....

  20. DETERMININGS OF FARM WORK ALLOCATION IN BRAZILIAN REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipe de Morais Cangussu Pessoa

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to analyze the determinings of farm work allocation in Brazilian regions, based on micro data of National Household Sample Survey 2009. For that, the empirical procedure consisted in the use of two models: Confirmatory Factor Analysis and the Logit Model. The model Confirmatory Factor Analysis showed good fit and defined two latent variables: qualification and income. As to the Logit Model, the results showed that the fact of a man living in rural areas increases the likelihood of being allocated in farm work, however if he is white this probability decrease. Besides, the variables qualification and income have a negative relation with farm work allocation, being the Midwest region that contributed most for people being allocated in farm work.

  1. [A photographic scale for evaluating facial pores and analysis of factors associated with pore widening in Chengdu].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qing; Zhou, Cheng-xia; Meng, Hui-min; Wang, Xi; Li, Li

    2010-09-01

    To develop a photographic scale for grading widening of pores, and to identify the factors associated with pore widening. People with widened pores were recruited, with photographs taken on their nasal tips, nasal alas and cheeks. A questionnaire survey was undertaken by dermatologists to assess the severity of pore widening. A Cumulative Logit Model was established to identify factors that were associated with pore widening. A total of 115 people participated in the study and 562 photographs were taken. The photographic scale was highly consistent with the clinical judgment. Another 1011 residents aged from 18 to 70 years old in Chengdu were surveyed. The logit model revealed that facial pore widening were associated with gender, age, oily skin, sun protection and anti-aging cosmetic. The photographic scale is reliable and easy to use. Gender, age and oily skin are risk factors, and sun protection and anti-aging cosmetic are protective factors with related to pore widening.

  2. Propensity for Voluntary Travel Behavior Changes: An Experimental Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meloni, Italo; Sanjust, Benedetta; Sottile, Eleonora

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we analyze individual propensity to voluntary travel behavior change combining concepts from theory of change with the methodologies deriving from behavioral models. In particular, following the theory of voluntary changes, we set up a two-week panel survey including soft measure...... implementation, which consisted of providing car users with a personalized travel plan after the first week of observation (before) and using the second week to monitoring the post-behavior (after). These data have then been used to estimate a Mixed Logit for the choice to use a personal vehicle or a light metro......; and a Multinomial Logit for the decision to change behavior. Results from both models show the relevance of providing information about available alternatives to individuals while promoting voluntary travel behavioral change....

  3. Modelo dinámico para analizar el desempleo en egresados de programas de educación superior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Silva

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available La investigación se enmarca en un enfoque cuantitativo explicativo, cuyo objetivo fue analizar un modelo para describir la tasa de desempleo condicionada a la probabilidad de pasar de un estado ocupacional a un estado de desocupación, ante distintas características del perfil de egreso de los individuos de universidades de Norte de Santander. Dentro de este marco de referencia se estudiaron los cambios de condición laboral en egresados para los años 2014 y 2016; a través de muestreo por conglomerados multietápico. Resultados: valores predictivos altos y ajustes adecuados caracterizaron los modelos tipo logit ajustados. A través de sus coeficientes se obtuvo una medida de las diferencias en cuanto a la inercia laboral entre diversos programas académicos. El modelo logit ajustado fue un modelo óptimo para medir tasa de desempleo en profesionales.

  4. A Study of Commuters’ Decision-Making When Delaying Departure for Work-Home Trips

    Science.gov (United States)

    Que, Fangjie; Wang, Wei

    2017-12-01

    Studies on the travel behaviors and patterns of residents are important to the arrangement of urban layouts and urban traffic planning. However, research on the characteristics of the decision-making behavior regarding departure time is not fully expanded yet. In this paper, the research focuses on commuters’ decision-making behavior regarding departure delay. According to the 2013 travel survey data of Suzhou City, a nested logit (NL) model was built to represent the probabilities of individual choices. Parameter calibration was conducted, so that the significant factors influencing the departure delay were obtained. Ultimately, the results of the NL model indicated that it performed better and with higher precision, compared to the traditional multinomial logit (MNL) model.

  5. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  6. The relationship between venture capital investment and macro economic variables via statistical computation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aygunes, Gunes

    2017-07-01

    The objective of this paper is to survey and determine the macroeconomic factors affecting the level of venture capital (VC) investments in a country. The literary depends on venture capitalists' quality and countries' venture capital investments. The aim of this paper is to give relationship between venture capital investment and macro economic variables via statistical computation method. We investigate the countries and macro economic variables. By using statistical computation method, we derive correlation between venture capital investments and macro economic variables. According to method of logistic regression model (logit regression or logit model), macro economic variables are correlated with each other in three group. Venture capitalists regard correlations as a indicator. Finally, we give correlation matrix of our results.

  7. A dynamic analysis of interfuel substitution for Swedish heating plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braennlund, Runar; Lundgren, Tommy

    2004-01-01

    This paper estimates a dynamic model of interfuel substitution for Swedish heating plants. We use the cost share linear logit model developed by Considine and Mount [Considine, T.J., Mount, T.D., 1984. The use of linear logit models for dynamic input demand systems. Review of Economics and Statistics 66, 434-443]. All estimated own-price elasticities are negative and all cross-price elasticities are positive. The estimated dynamic adjustment rate parameter is small, however, increasing with the size of the plant and time, indicating fast adjustments in the fuel mix when changing relative fuel prices. The estimated model is used to illustrate the effects of two different policy changes

  8. Determinants of Fresh Fish Purchasing Behavior Among Malaysian Consumers

    OpenAIRE

    Abdullahi Farah Ahmed; Zainalabidin Mohamed and Mohd Mansor Ismail

    2011-01-01

    The study investigates demographic and attitudinal characteristics that can affect the purchase decisions of marine fish among Malaysian consumers. A survey was conducted on Kuala Lumpur households using structured questionnaires. Seven hundred respondents were randomly interviewed with regard to their buying behaviour pattern, attitude and perception on fresh marine fish consumption. The data were analyzed using a logit binary model. It was found that the size and income of the households, g...

  9. Network Competition and Entry Deterrence

    OpenAIRE

    Calzada, Joan; Valletti, Tommaso

    2005-01-01

    We develop a model of logit demand that extends to a multi-firm industry the traditional duopoly framework of network competition with access charges. Firstly, we show that, when incumbents do not face the threat of entry and compete in prices, they inefficiently establish the reciprocal access charge below cost. This inefficiency disappears if incumbents compete in utilities instead of prices. Secondly, we study how incumbents change their choices under the threat of entry when they determin...

  10. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

  11. Television Advertising and Soda Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, Rigoberto A.; Liu, Yizao; Zhu, Chen

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the effects of television advertising on consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks using a random coefficients logit model (BLP) with household and advertising data from seven U.S. cities over a three year period. We find that advertising decreases the price elasticity of demand, indicating that advertising plays predominantly a persuasive, therefore anti-competitive role in this market. Further results show that brand spillover effects are significant and that measuring ...

  12. Impact of Public Market Information System (PMIS) on Farmers Food Marketing Decisions: Case of Benin

    OpenAIRE

    Kpenavoun Chogou, Sylvain; Lebailly, Philippe; Adegbidi, Anselme; Gandonou, Esaie

    2009-01-01

    To sell their surpluses of maize, the main staple in Benin, farmers may choose among three modes of transaction: they may sell under a contract with itinerant traders, or they may sell without a contract at the farmgate or on distant markets. It has been postulated that farmers may choose a profitable mode of transaction if they have good access to information on the prevailing market conditions. Using detailed farm household survey data from Benin, this paper applies the Nested Logit model t...

  13. Effect of Advertising on the Brand Loyalty of Cosmetic Products among College Students

    OpenAIRE

    Ababio, Abraham Gyamfi; Yamoah, Emmanuel Erastus

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the relationship between advertising and brand loyalty of cosmetic products. The multinomial logit model was used to ascertain the effect of advertising on different loyalty profiles for cosmetic products among college students. Based on a survey of 200 Ghanaian students drawn randomly, findings indicated that advertising plays no significant role on college students’ loyalty for cosmetic products. It can be argued, however, that the most promiscuous buyer is more amenable...

  14. Livelihood strategies, environmental dependency and rural poverty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walelign, Solomon Zena

    2016-01-01

    This article attempts to explore the nexus between rural households’ environmental dependency, poverty and livelihood strategies. Households’ income from each livelihood activities formed the basis for categorizing households according to livelihood strategies. The principal component analysis...... of livelihood choice were analyzed using multinomial logit model. The results indicate the existence of marked differences in environmental dependency, rural poverty and asset endowments across the livelihood groups. Household’s total saving, access to credit, production implements, business cost, exposure...

  15. A Model of Bus Bunching under Reliability-based Passenger Arrival Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Fonzone, Achille; Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk; Liu, Ronghui

    2015-01-01

    If bus service departure times are not completely unknown to the passengers, non-uniform passenger arrival patterns can be expected. We propose that passengers decide their arrival time at stops based on a continuous logit model that considers the risk of missing services. Expected passenger waiting times are derived in a bus system that allows also for overtaking between bus services. We then propose an algorithm to derive the dwell time of subsequent buses serving a stop in order to illustr...

  16. Modeling Intercity Mode Choice and Airport Choice in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Ashiabor, Senanu Y.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a framework to model travel choice behavior in order to estimate intercity travel demand at nation-level in the United States. Nested and mixed logit models were developed to study national-level intercity transportation in the United States. A separate General Aviation airport choice model to estimates General Aviation person-trips and number of aircraft operations though more than 3000 airports was also developed. The combination of the General Aviati...

  17. Comparison of the psychometric properties of two balance scales in children with cerebral palsy

    OpenAIRE

    Jeon, Yong-Jin; Kim, Gyoung-Mo

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to compare the item difficulty degree between the Pediatric Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance scale for children with cerebral palsy. [Subjects and Methods] Forty children with cerebral palsy (male=17, female=23) voluntarily participated in the study. Item difficulty was expressed in the Rasch analysis using a logit value, with a higher value indicative of increasing item difficulty. [Results] Among the 24 items of the combined Pediatric Bala...

  18. A hipótese de Cressey (1953) e a investigação da ocorrência de fraudes corporativas: uma análise empírica em instituições bancárias brasileiras

    OpenAIRE

    Machado, Michele Rílany Rodrigues; Gartner, Ivan Ricardo

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The ai...

  19. The Cressey hypothesis (1953) and an investigation into the occurrence of corporate fraud: an empirical analysis conducted in Brazilian banking institutions

    OpenAIRE

    Michele Rílany Rodrigues Machado; Ivan Ricardo Gartner

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT This article fills a technical-scientific gap that currently exists in the Brazilian literature on corporative fraud, by combining the theoretical framework of agency theory, of criminology, and of the economics of crime. In addition, it focuses on a sector that is usually excluded from analyses due to its specific characteristics and shows the application of multinomial logit panel data regression with random effects, which is rarely used in studies in the area of accounting. The ai...

  20. AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF FAMILIARITY AND WILLINGNESS TO USE ONLINE FOOD SHOPPING SERVICES IN A LOCAL AREA OF TEXAS

    OpenAIRE

    Hiser, Jennifer; Nayga, Rodolfo M., Jr.; Capps, Oral, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    Online food shopping is not only one of the newest innovations in grocery shopping but also one of the many services integrating the changing needs of consumers and the increasing use of modern technology. A survey was conducted in the Bryan/College Station area of Texas to determine a quantitative profile of consumers, via logit analysis, who are familiar with the concept of online food shopping and who are willing to use an online food shopping service. Older people, females, major shoppers...

  1. Job Satisfaction And Family Happiness : The Part-Time Work Problem

    OpenAIRE

    Booth, A.L.; van Ours, J.C.

    2007-01-01

    Using fixed effects ordered logit estimation, we investigate the relationship between part-time work and working hours satisfaction; job satisfaction; and life satisfaction. We account for interdependence within the family using data on partnered men and women from the British Household Panel Survey. We find that men have the highest hours-of-work satisfaction if they work full-time without overtime hours but neither their job satisfaction nor their life satisfaction are affected by how many ...

  2. Job Satisfaction and Family Happiness: The Part-time Work Puzzle

    OpenAIRE

    Booth, Alison L; van Ours, Jan C

    2007-01-01

    Using fixed effects ordered logit estimation, we investigate the relationship between part-time work and working hours satisfaction; job satisfaction; and life satisfaction. We account for interdependence within the family using data on partnered men and women from the British Household Panel Survey. We find that men have the highest hours-of-work satisfaction if they work full-time without overtime hours but neither their job satisfaction nor their life satisfaction are affected by how many ...

  3. Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

    OpenAIRE

    Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

    2012-01-01

    Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

  4. The impact of the residential built environment on work at home adoption frequency: An example from Northern California

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei (Laura); Mokhtarian, Patricia L.; Handy, Susan L.

    2011-01-01

    Working at home is widely viewed as a useful travel-reduction strategy, and it is partly for that reason that considerable research related to telecommuting and home-based work has been conducted in the last two decades. This study examines the effect of residential neighborhood built environment (BE) factors on working at home. After systematically presenting and categorizing various relevant elements of the BE and reviewing related studies, we develop a multinomial logit (MNL) model of work...

  5. The Role of Neighborhood Characteristics in the Adoption and Frequency of Working at Home: Empirical Evidence from Northern California

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Wei; Mokhtarian, Patricia; Handy, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Working at home is widely viewed as a useful travel-reduction strategy, and partly for that reason, considerable research related to telecommuting and home-based work has been conducted in the last two decades. The contribution of this study is to examine the effect of residential neighborhood built environment (BE) factors on working at home. Using data from a survey of eight neighborhoods in Northern California, we develop a multinomial logit (MNL) model of work-at-home (WAH) frequency. Pot...

  6. Dispositional Employability and Online Training Purchase. Evidence from Employees' Behavior in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Torrent-Sellens, Joan; Ficapal-Cus?, Pilar; Boada-Grau, Joan

    2016-01-01

    This article explores the relationship between dispositional employability and online training purchase. Through a sample of 883 employees working for enterprises in Spain, and a using principal component analysis and binomial logit probabilistic models, the research revealed two main results. First, it was found that dispositional employability is characterized by five factors: “openness to changes at work,” “career motivation and work resilience,” “work and career proactivity,” “optimism an...

  7. A Panel Analysis Of UK Industrial Company Failure

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia Isachenkova; John Hunter

    2002-01-01

    We examine the failure determinants for large quoted UK industrials using a panel data set comprising 539 firms observed over the period 1988-93. The empirical design employs data from company accounts and is based on Chamberlain’s conditional binomial logit model, which allows for unobservable, firm-specific, time-invariant factors associated with failure risk. We find a noticeable degree of heterogeneity across the sample companies. Our panel results show that, after controll...

  8. ANALYSIS OF FOOD SECURITY AMONG SMALLHOLDER FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN ARID AREAS OF BORNO STATE, NIGERIA

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed, , D; Bukar , U; Umar , J; Abdulsalam , B; Dahiru , B

    2016-01-01

    International audience; The study assessed food security situation among smallholder farming househ Borno State, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling procedure was used in selecting 200 household respondents. Data were collected with the use of interview scheduled and structured questionnaires. Result revealed that 91% of the respondents were male, 59% were full time farmers and 33% of the households had farming experience of 11 household respondents were food secure. Logit result indicates that the...

  9. Do Monetary, Fiscal and Financial Institutions Really Matter for Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies?

    OpenAIRE

    Seedwell Hove; Albert Touna Mama; Fulbert Tchana Tchana

    2011-01-01

    Most emerging market economies (EMEs) which have implemented inflation targeting (IT) have continued to experience large, frequent and sometimes persistent inflation target misses. At the same time these countries had reformed their institutional structures when implementing IT. In this paper we empirically study the importance of central bank independence, fiscal discipline and financial sector development for the achievement of inflation targets in EMEs using the panel ordered logit model. ...

  10. Factors influencing the perception of organic certification logos in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Karahan Uysal, Ö.; Miran, B.; Abay, C.; Boyaci, M.; Janssen, M.; Hamm, U.

    2013-01-01

    Consumers’ perceptions on organic certification logos and the factors influencing these perceptions were explored. Data from surveys conducted in major cities of Turkey revealed that organic food consumers had little knowledge about logos, although the declared level of trust in organic logos was high. According to ordered logit models, consumer’s perceptions on organic certification logos were influenced by purchasing frequency and weight of organic foods in total food consumption. Dummy v...

  11. Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that ...

  12. SEARCHING THE FACTORS HAVING CREDIT CARD: A SURVEY STUDY IN ERZURUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ERKAN OKTAY

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the factors related with having credit card in Erzurum have been searched by a logit model. There are demographic, social, cultural, and economic variables in the model. The final model is statistically significant. According to the model, job, average household income per month, payment method at shopping, usefulness of credit card and increasing the shopping tendency are statistically significant on having credit card.

  13. Linking apple farmers to markets: Determinants and impacts of marketing contracts in China

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Wanglin; Abdulai, Awudu

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the determinants of marketing contract choices and the related impact on farm net returns of apple farmers in China. We employ a two-stage selection correction approach (BFG) for the multinomial logit model. On the basis of the BFG estimation, we also use an endogenous switching regression model and a propensity score matching technique to estimate the causal effects of marketing contract choices on net returns. The empirical results reveal that written contracts incre...

  14. The Renewables Influence on Market Splitting: the Iberian Spot Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo; Patrícia Pereira da Silva; Pedro Cerqueira

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the influence of wind power generation on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. We use logit models to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices together with explanatory variables like, wind speed, available transmission capacity and electricity demand. The results show that the probability of market splitting increases with the increase of wind power generation. The European intercon...

  15. The importance of regret minimization in the choice for renewable energy programmes: Evidence from a discrete choice experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeri, Marco; Longo, Alberto

    2017-01-01

    This study provides a methodologically rigorous attempt to disentangle the impact of various factors – unobserved heterogeneity, information and environmental attitudes – on the inclination of individuals to exhibit either a utility maximization or a regret minimization behaviour in a discrete choice experiment for renewable energy programmes described by four attributes: greenhouse gas emissions, power outages, employment in the energy sector, and electricity bill. We explore the ability of different models – multinomial logit, random parameters logit, and hybrid latent class – and of different choice paradigms – utility maximization and regret minimization – in explaining people's choices for renewable energy programmes. The “pure” random regret random parameters logit model explains the choices of our respondents better than other models, indicating that regret is an important choice paradigm, and that choices for renewable energy programmes are mostly driven by regret, rather than by rejoice. In particular, we find that our respondents' choices are driven more by changes in greenhouse gas emissions than by reductions in power outages. Finally, we find that changing the level of information to one attribute has no effect on choices, and that being a member of an environmental organization makes a respondent more likely to be associated with the utility maximization choice framework. - Highlights: • The first paper to use the Random Regret Minimization choice paradigm in energy economics • With a hybrid latent class model, choices conform to either utility or pure random regret. • The pure random regret random parameters logit model outperforms other models. • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is more important than reducing power outages.

  16. Manipulating a stated choice experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Borjesson, Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the design of a stated choice experiment intended to measure the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between cost and an attribute such as time using a conventional logit model. Focusing the experimental design on some target MRS will bias estimates towards that value....... The paper shows why this happens. The resulting estimated MRS can then be manipulated by adapting the target MRS in the experimental design. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  17. Gender diversity in top-management positions in large family and nonfamily businesses

    OpenAIRE

    Kay, Rosemarie; Schlömer-Laufen, Nadine

    2016-01-01

    (Why) does the sex ratio in top-management positions in large family and nonfamily businesses differ? Using a unique data set and estimating (fractional) logit regressions we show that the female share in top-management positions in family businesses exceeds the one in nonfamily businesses. One reason is the selection mechanism social homophily from which females in family businesses benefit more because of a higher female share in the decision making body in family businesses. Another reason...

  18. External Shocks and Banking Crises in Developing Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Chandima Mendis

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines some determinants of banking crises in developing economies. Specifically, the effects of terms of trade shocks and capital flows are analyzed. The choice of the nominal exchange rate regime is found to be a crucial factor in the way various shocks are transmitted through the monetary sector. A logit model is used on panel data and preliminary results indicate that countries with flexible regimes were able to lessen the impact of external shocks on the domestic economy. Th...

  19. Effects of economic crisis on the distribution of earnings from Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Amalia CRISTESCU; Dorel AILENEI

    2015-01-01

    The wage gap issue as well as that of income inequality has been a key topic in economics. The supervision of these gaps is essential in terms of labour stimulation and orientation in order to support social progress and to maintain the economic and social cohesion. Starting from a positive approach, but considering the risks of a limiting analysis, in this article, the authors analyzed the determinants of earnings inequality in Romania through an ordered-logit model. The model...

  20. Ordering the Preference Hierarchies for Internal Finance, Bank Loans, Bond and Share Issues

    OpenAIRE

    Leo de Haan; Jeroen Hinloopen

    2002-01-01

    We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishinginternal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bondissues and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model whichconfirms several predictions of both the static trade-off theory and thepecking-order theory as to the determinants of financing choices. Next, weuse ordered probit models to determine which financing hiera...

  1. An analysis of the factors affecting Marine Corps officer retention

    OpenAIRE

    Theilmann, Robert J.

    1990-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. This thesis examines factors which influence the retention of male, company-grade Marine Corps officers (grades O-1 to O-3) who are within their initial period of obligated service. Data used combined responses from the 1985 DoD Survey of Officer and Enlisted Personnel and the respondents' 1989 status from the officer master fine maintained by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC). Logit regression was used to measure the relative impo...

  2. Benefits of improved water quality: a discrete choice analysis of freshwater recreational demands

    OpenAIRE

    R S Tay; P S McCarthy

    1994-01-01

    Discrete choice methodologies are increasingly being used to estimate multiple-sites recreational demands and evaluate the welfare effects of alternative environmental policies aimed at water quality improvements. In this study the authors use 1985 data on Indiana anglers to estimate a multinomial logit model of destination choice and compute the benefits of alternative water quality improvements. In general, the results indicate that anglers are reasonably sensitive to changes in water quali...

  3. Modeling patterns in count data using loglinear and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1995-12-01

    This report explains the use of loglinear and logit models, for analyzing Poisson and binomial counts in the presence of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may be unordered categorical variables or numerical variables, or both. The report shows how to construct models to fit data, and how to test whether a model is too simple or too complex. The appropriateness of the methods with small data sets is discussed. Several example analyses, using the SAS computer package, illustrate the methods

  4. Tendency of corruption and its determinants among public servants: A case study on Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Duasa, Jarita

    2008-01-01

    This study attempts to analyze determinants of corruption tendency on a single country, namely Malaysia, using cross-sectional data. Using survey questions on sample of respondents in two states of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, data are collected and logit model is developed for estimation. The results from the regression on sample indicate that age negatively contributes to corruption tendency among government servants. The results also show that there are two departments, namely Poli...

  5. "Choice of Air Cargo Transshipment Airport: An Application to Air Cargo Traffic to/from Northeast Asia"

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroshi Ohashi; Tae-Seung Kim; Tae Hoon Oum; Chunyan Yu

    2004-01-01

    Based on a unique data set of 760 air cargo transshipment routings to/from the Northeast Asian region in 2000, this paper applies an aggregate form of multinomial logit model to identify the critical factors influencing air cargo transshipment route choice decisions. The analysis focuses on the trade-off between monetary cost and time cost while considering other variables relevant for choice of transshipment airport. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and ...

  6. The Influence of Higher Moments of Earnings Distributions on Career Decisions.

    OpenAIRE

    Flyer, Fredrick A

    1997-01-01

    A model where choice of occupation is sequential is applied to college graduates from the National Longitudinal Study of High School Class of 1972 to investigate how higher moments of occupational earnings distributions influence initial field of work. Individual specific life-cycle earnings projections that incorporate option values of occupational mobility are generated, and the relationship between these pay measures and choice of initial occupation is explored within a multinomial logit f...

  7. Dispositional employability and online training purchase. Evidence from employees' behavior in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    BOADA GRAU, JOAN; Joan Torrent-Sellens; Pilar Ficapal-Cusí

    2016-01-01

    DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00831 URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4887487/ Filiació URV: SI This article explores the relationship between dispositional employability and online training purchase. Through a sample of 883 employees working for enterprises in Spain, and a using principal component analysis and binomial logit probabilistic models, the research revealed two main results. First, it was found that dispositional employability is characterized by five factors: ...

  8. Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    W.R BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

    2003-01-01

    This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting...

  9. Should we pay, and to whom, for biodiversity enhancement in private forests? An empirical study of attitudes towards payments for forest ecosystem services in Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Anna Bartczak; Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the possibility of forest policy changes in Poland. The main objective is to investigate whether, and to whom, the society would be willing to pay for providing biodiversity enhancement in private forests. The empirical evidence is derived from a stated preference survey conducted on the national level and analyzed using a multinomial logit model (MNL). Our findings show a rather strong potential for the implementation of payments for ecosystem services (PES) in privat...

  10. Working Paper 175 - Youth Employment in Africa: New Evidence and Policies from Swaziland

    OpenAIRE

    Zuzana Brixiova; Thierry Kangoye

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on the 2007 and 2010 Swaziland Labor Force Surveys, this paper provides first systematic evidence on recent youth employment challenges in Swaziland, a small, land-locked, middle-income country with one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Africa. The paper first documents the various labor market disadvantages faced by the Swazi youth, such as high unemployment and discouragement, and how they changed from 2007 to 2010. A multinomial logit regression analysis is carried out to ...

  11. Youth Employment in Africa: New Evidence and Policies from Swaziland

    OpenAIRE

    Brixiova, Zuzana; Kangoye, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Drawing on the 2007 and 2010 Swaziland Labor Force Surveys, this paper provides first systematic evidence on recent youth employment challenges in Swaziland, a small, land-locked, middle-income country with one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Africa. The paper first documents the various labor market disadvantages faced by the Swazi youth, such as high unemployment and discouragement, and how they changed from 2007 to 2010. A multinomial logit regression analysis is then carried ou...

  12. CORN PRODUCERS´ RESPONSE TO THE 2001 NITROGEN FERTILIZER PRICE INCREASE

    OpenAIRE

    Daberkow, Stan G.; McBride, William D.

    2004-01-01

    During the past few years, nitrogen fertilizer prices and price volatility have increased. Producers of nitrogen-intensive crops, such as corn, who are faced with increased nitrogen prices or price volatility, can adopt either cost-reducing or price variability-reducing strategies. Using a behavioral model in the logit specification and data from a 2001 national survey of U.S. corn producers, we found that the probability of forward pricing nitrogen fertilizer and the probability of using nit...

  13. Keep Calm and Learn Multilevel Logistic Modeling: A Simplified Three-Step Procedure Using Stata, R, Mplus, and SPSS

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolas Sommet; Davide Morselli

    2017-01-01

    This paper aims to introduce multilevel logistic regression analysis in a simple and practical way. First, we introduce the basic principles of logistic regression analysis (conditional probability, logit transformation, odds ratio). Second, we discuss the two fundamental implications of running this kind of analysis with a nested data structure: In multilevel logistic regression, the odds that the outcome variable equals one (rather than zero) may vary from one cluster to another (i.e. the i...

  14. SNAP Participants? Eating Patterns over the Benefit Month: A Time Use Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hamrick, Karen S.; Andrews, Margaret

    2016-01-01

    Individuals receiving monthly benefits through the U.S. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) often fall short of food at the end of the month and some report feelings of hunger. To investigate this situation, we used time diaries from the 2006-08 American Time Use Survey and Eating & Health Module to identify the timing of days where respondents reported no eating occurrences. Analysis includes descriptive statistics, a logit model, and a simulated benefit month. We found that SNA...

  15. How do we value our income from which we save?

    OpenAIRE

    Barbara Liberda; Marek Pęczkowski; Ewa Gucwa-Leśny

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the relationship between the perception of income as satisfying household needs and saving rate of this household. Using the multinomial logit regression function we measure the probability of a household to fall into one of the groups categorized by the subjective perception of income in relation to the current household disposable income. The variable specified for the valuation of income is income perception, defined as a class of observed disposable income located...

  16. Efektivita predikčních trhů: případ Intradu

    OpenAIRE

    Brandejs, David

    2013-01-01

    1 Abstract Bachelor thesis confirms weak market efficiency hypothesis for political events, which took place on Intrade prediction market and finished between 1. October and 31. December 2012. Three unit root tests, ADF GLS, KPSS and Lo-Mackinlay test proved on 5% confidence level, that 140 of 191 tested political events is weakly market efficient, which means high relative market efficiency (73,3%). Testing out-of-political markets shows significantly lower market efficiency. Logit model rej...

  17. Essays on microeconomics and statistical decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Nieto Barthaburu, Augusto

    2006-01-01

    Chapter I of this dissertation addresses the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable based on a vector of covariates in the context of two different decision making environments. First we consider a single decision maker with given preferences, who has to choose between two actions on the basis of an unobserved binary outcome. Previous research has shown that traditional prediction methods, such as a logit regression estimated by maximum likelihood and combined with a cutoff, may p...

  18. Can Organically Produced Foods Attract South Korean Consumers?

    OpenAIRE

    Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Nambiar, Padmanand Madhavan; Suh, Dong-Kyun

    2010-01-01

    Differences in perception of organic and conventional foods matter to food suppliers and retailers. Using survey data collected from 1,100 female residents of seven urban centers in Korea this study applies the logit technique to identify consumer and household characteristics that influence the perception differences regarding six attributes. Results indicate the importance of household income with regard to organic food preference and the opposite effect of education. Perceptions also diffe...

  19. World-First Innovations in an Open Innovation Context

    OpenAIRE

    Hochleitner, Franciane Paz; Arbussà i Reixach, Anna; Coenders, Germà

    2016-01-01

    This study contributes to the current literature on open innovation by analysing the effects of open innovation activities on the introduction of new-to-the-world innovations versus imitation. We base our analysis on data provided by the Eurostat Community Innovation Survey (CIS) carried out in Germany in 2012, which for the first time made a distinction between world-first innovation and imitation. We use both logit models and CHAID trees. The results of both analyses show that traditional i...

  20. Effects of gender, education and health communication on the regularity of physical exercise: a 2016 Vietnamese cross-section survey

    OpenAIRE

    Vuong, Quan-Hoang; Pham, Hiep-Hung; Vuong, Thu Trang

    2017-01-01

    Nowadays, physical exercise and sports activities are regarded as the best means for people to keep fit and boost their health. In Vietnam, exercising on a daily basis is still underappreciated as twothirds of the population only exercise at trivial or low levels. Based on applying the baseline category logit model, we conduct an analysis to figure out the factors affecting people’s level of exercise. The findings show that males tend to engage in physical activities more than females, with t...

  1. Intrahousehold Health Care Financing Strategy and the Gender Gap: Empirical Evidence from India

    OpenAIRE

    Abay Asfaw; Stephan Klasen; Francesca Lamanna

    2008-01-01

    The 'missing women' dilemma in India has sparked interest in investigating gender discrimination in the provision of health care in the country. No studies, however, have directly examined this discrimination in relation to household behavior in health care financing. We hypothesize that households who face tight budget constraints are more likely to spend their meager resources on hospitalization of boys rather than girls. We use the 60th Indian National Sample Survey and a multinomial logit...

  2. Banking Fragility in Colombia: An Empirical Analysis Based on Balance Sheets

    OpenAIRE

    Ignacio Lozano; Alexander Guarín

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we study the empirical relationship between credit funding sources and the financial vulnerability of the Colombian banking system. We propose a statistical model to measure and predict banking-fragility episodes associated with credit funding sources classified into retail deposits and wholesale funds. We compute the probability of financial fragility for both the aggregated banking system and the individual banks. Our approach performs a Bayesian averaging of estimated logit ...

  3. Female labour force participation in MENA's manufacturing sector: The implications of firm-related and national factors

    OpenAIRE

    Fakih, Ali; Ghazalian, Pascal L.

    2013-01-01

    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region falls behind several other geo-economic regions in terms of women's participation rates in the labour market. This paper examines the implications of firm-related and national factors for Female Labour Force Participation (FLFP) rates in manufacturing firms located in the MENA region. The empirical investigation uses data derived from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys database and applies fractional logit models to carry out the estimations. Th...

  4. Area Based Models of New Highway Route Growth

    OpenAIRE

    David Levinson; Wei Chen

    2007-01-01

    Empirical data and statistical models are used to answer the question of where new highway routes are most likely to be located. High-quality land-use, population distribution and highway network GIS data for the Twin CitiesMetropolitan Area from 1958 to 1990 are developed for this study. The highway system is classified into three levels, Interstate highways, divided highways, and secondary highways. Binary logit models estimate the new route growth probability of divided highways and second...

  5. Does Merger Simulation Work? A "Natural Experiment" in the Swedish Analgesics Market Market

    OpenAIRE

    Björnerstedt, Jonas; Verboven, Frank

    2012-01-01

    We exploit a natural experiment associated with a large merger in the Swedish market for analgesics (painkillers). We confront the predictions from a merger simulation study, as conducted during the investigation, with the actual merger effects over a two-year comparison window. The merger simulation model is based on a constant expenditures specification for the nested logit model (as an alternative to the typical unit demand specification). The model predicts a large price increase of 34% b...

  6. Determinants of the probability of adopting quality protein maize (QPM) technology in Tanzania: A logistic regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory, T.; Sewando, P.

    2013-01-01

    Adoption of technology is an important factor in economic development. The thrust of this study was to establish factors affecting adoption of QPM technology in Northern zone of Tanzania. Primary data was collected from a random sample of 120 smallholder maize farmers in four villages. Data collected were analysed using descriptive and quantitative methods. Logit model was used to determine factors that influence adoption of QPM technology. The regression results indicated that education of t...

  7. Estimating the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function.

    OpenAIRE

    Feinman, Joshua N

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation into the proximate determinants of the Federal Reserve's daily open market operations. Using information available each morning at the Fed conference call, the author models the Open Market Desk's choice of both the quantity and the type of operation, using a friction model for the former and a multinomial logit framework for the latter. Different types of operations are shown to send different signals to the market about the under...

  8. Disability and multi-state labour force choices with state dependence

    OpenAIRE

    Oguzoglu, Umut

    2010-01-01

    I use a dynamic mixed multinomial logit model with unobserved heterogeneity to study the impact of work limiting disabilities on disaggregated labour choices. The first seven waves of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey are used to investigate this relationship. Findings point out to strong state dependence in employment choices. Further, the impact of disability on employment outcomes is highly significant. Model simulations suggest that high cross and own state depe...

  9. Employee satisfaction and use of flexible working arrangements

    OpenAIRE

    Wheatley, D

    2017-01-01

    This paper considers the impact of flexible working arrangements (FWAs), using the British Household Panel Survey and Understanding Society, 2001-2010/11. Results of panel logit, ANCOVA and change-score analysis are indicative of positive impacts from use of a number of FWAs, including homeworking having positive effects for men and women on job and leisure satisfaction. However,\\ud findings reveal gaps in availability and use of FWAs, and highlight the gendered nature of flexible employment....

  10. Local and/or organic: A study on consumer preferences for organic food and food from different origins

    OpenAIRE

    Feldmann , Corinna; Hamm, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to get a deeper insight into consumer preferences for different food products varying in their places of origin (i.e. local, Germany, neighbouring country, non-EU country) and production practices (i.e. organic vs. non-organic). Therefore, consumer surveys combined with choice experiments were conducted with 641 consumers in eight supermarkets in different parts of Germany. Multinomial and mixed logit models were estimated to draw conclusions on the preference str...

  11. Employment Composition: A Study of Australian Employment Growth, 2002–2006

    OpenAIRE

    Jeremy Lawson; Crystal Ossolinski

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to examine whether there was a change in employment rates for people with ‘low employment’ characteristics between 2002 and 2006, which was a period of strong employment growth. In particular, it estimates the relationships between employment and personal and household characteristics using a binomial logit model, with a comparison of the coefficients in 2002 and 2006 providing tentative evidence o...

  12. The Role of Internal Reference Points in the Category Purchase Decision.

    OpenAIRE

    Bell, David R; Bucklin, Randolph E

    1999-01-01

    The authors study the role that reference effects play in the category purchase decision for consumer nondurable products. Category purchase behavior is represented by a nested logit model that is estimated on purchase records of shoppers in two Universal Product Code (UPC) scanner panels. A series of hypotheses are developed, modeled, and tested regarding the effects that internal reference points for product category attractiveness are likely to have on the decision to buy in a product cate...

  13. Employees’ Preferences for more or fewer Working Hours. The Effects of Usual, Contractual and Standard Working Time, Family Phase and Household Characteristics, and Job Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Tijdens, K.

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work shorter hours and that short-hours workers prefer longer hours. New is the finding that salaried employees indeed want to reduce hours whereas hourly paid employees prefer to work longer hours. In...

  14. WP RR 15 - Employees' preferences for more or fewer working hours: The effects of usual, contractual and standard working time, family phase and household characteristics and job satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Kea Tijdens

    2002-01-01

    This study seeks explanations for working time preferences, using cross-sectional multinomial logits for the 2001/2002 Wage Indicator dataset (N=21,727). As expected, the preferences are predominately influenced by working hours’ characteristics, showing that employees with long hours prefer to work shorter hours and that short-hours workers prefer longer hours. New is the finding that salaried employees indeed want to reduce hours whereas hourly paid employees prefer to work longer hours. In...

  15. General methods for analyzing bounded proportion data

    OpenAIRE

    Hossain, Abu

    2017-01-01

    This thesis introduces two general classes of models for analyzing proportion response variable when the response variable Y can take values between zero and one, inclusive of zero and/or one. The models are inflated GAMLSS model and generalized Tobit GAMLSS model. The inflated GAMLSS model extends the flexibility of beta inflated models by allowing the distribution on (0,1) of the continuous component of the dependent variable to come from any explicit or transformed (i.e. logit or truncated...

  16. CONSUMER DEMAND FOR AND ATTITUDES TOWARD ALTERNATIVE BEEF LABELING STRATEGIES IN FRANCE, GERMANY, AND THE UK

    OpenAIRE

    Roosen, Jutta; Lusk, Jayson L.; Fox, John A.

    2001-01-01

    A wide array of food safety scares and breakdowns have led to loss of consumer confidence in the quality and safety of beef products. To counteract such concerns, firms and regulators have the ability to utilize brands or labels to signal quality. Utilizing a mail survey in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we analyzed consumer preferences for alternative beef labeling strategies. Using an ordered probit model and a double bounded logit model, we estimate consumer preferences for alter...

  17. The Auditor's Going-Concern Opinion Decision

    OpenAIRE

    Tae G. Ryu; Chul-Young Roh

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we expand on several previous studies related to the materiality judgments and the auditor's propensity to issue a going-concern opinion to financially troubled but non-bankrupt companies. We test the auditor's materiality thresholds by investigating whether there is any significant difference in accuracy among audit firms, especially between Big Six (Five) and non-Big Six (Five) audit firms. Binary logit regression is used to analyze 1,332 firms that were non-bankrupt but fina...

  18. Long Work Hours: Volunteers and Conscripts

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Drago; Mark Wooden; David Black

    2006-01-01

    Panel data from Australia are used to study the prevalence of work hours mismatch among long hours workers and, more importantly, how that mismatch persists and changes over time, and what factors are associated with these changes. Particular attention is paid to the roles played by household debt, ideal worker characteristics and gender. Both static and dynamic multinomial logit models are estimated, with the dependent variable distinguishing long hours workers from other workers, and within...

  19. AFFECTING CUSTOMER LOYALTY: DO DIFFERENT FACTORS HAVE VARIOUS INFLUENCES IN DIFFERENT LOYALTY LEVELS?

    OpenAIRE

    Andres Kuusik

    2007-01-01

    The current paper studies the influence of various factors on customer loyalty. The main hypothesis of the study insists that the list of most important factors affecting loyalty is dependant on the level of loyalty of costumers. LOGIT method was used for testing the hypotheses on the sample of survey data about 1000 private customers of the biggest telecommunication company in Estonia. The results reveal that four analysed factors affecting customer loyalty (satisfaction, trustworthiness, im...

  20. An Objective Screening Method for Major Depressive Disorder Using Logistic Regression Analysis of Heart Rate Variability Data Obtained in a Mental Task Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guanghao Sun

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Heart rate variability (HRV has been intensively studied as a promising biological marker of major depressive disorder (MDD. Our previous study confirmed that autonomic activity and reactivity in depression revealed by HRV during rest and mental task (MT conditions can be used as diagnostic measures and in clinical evaluation. In this study, logistic regression analysis (LRA was utilized for the classification and prediction of MDD based on HRV data obtained in an MT paradigm.Methods: Power spectral analysis of HRV on R-R intervals before, during, and after an MT (random number generation was performed in 44 drug-naïve patients with MDD and 47 healthy control subjects at Department of Psychiatry in Shizuoka Saiseikai General Hospital. Logit scores of LRA determined by HRV indices and heart rates discriminated patients with MDD from healthy subjects. The high frequency (HF component of HRV and the ratio of the low frequency (LF component to the HF component (LF/HF correspond to parasympathetic and sympathovagal balance, respectively.Results: The LRA achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 80.0% and 79.0%, respectively, at an optimum cutoff logit score (0.28. Misclassifications occurred only when the logit score was close to the cutoff score. Logit scores also correlated significantly with subjective self-rating depression scale scores (p < 0.05.Conclusion: HRV indices recorded during a mental task may be an objective tool for screening patients with MDD in psychiatric practice. The proposed method appears promising for not only objective and rapid MDD screening, but also evaluation of its severity.

  1. Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mannering, Jill S.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    1995-01-01

    This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of t...

  2. Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Justin M. Dubas; Byung-Joo Lee; Nelson C. Mark

    2005-01-01

    We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by as...

  3. A COUNTY-LEVEL MODEL OF MANUFACTURING PLANT RECRUITMENT WITH IMPROVED INDUSTRIAL SITE QUALITY MEASUREMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Kriesel, Warren; McNamara, Kevin T.

    1991-01-01

    Empirical analysis of manufacturing plant location requires the use of a single industrial site quality measure. Under hedonic price theory, the price of industrial sites can be explained by their quality characteristics. The estimated site price is included with ten other location factors in an ordered, categorical logit model of plant attraction to Georgia counties. The results inform public decision-makers of the relative impact of site location factors and how changes in location factors ...

  4. CHINESE SMEs' USES OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS IN DECISION MAKING

    OpenAIRE

    HOWARD VAN AUKEN; KUI YANG

    2014-01-01

    With a sample of 46 Chinese small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), this study examines factors that might affect firms' use of financial statements to make decisions. Financial statements contain insightful information about potential risk and return implications of various decisions. A logit analysis shows that owners of Chinese SMEs use financial statements to make decisions according to the frequency of available financial statement information and their ability to interpret the informa...

  5. Modelling Gender Differences in the Economic and Social Influences of Obesity in Australian Young People

    OpenAIRE

    Gulay Avsar; Roger Ham; W. Kathy Tannous

    2017-01-01

    In Australia, as in many other developed economies, the prevalence of obesity has risen significantly in all age groups and especially in young males and females over the past decade. Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, this paper investigates the influence of economic, personality and social factor demographics on the incidence of obesity in Australian youths. The study uses two random parameters logit models, including one that allows for g...

  6. New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index

    OpenAIRE

    Charles J. Hadlock; Joshua R. Pierce

    2010-01-01

    We collect detailed qualitative information from financial filings to categorize financial constraints for a random sample of firms from 1995 to 2004. Using this categorization, we estimate ordered logit models predicting constraints as a function of different quantitative factors. Our findings cast serious doubt on the validity of the KZ index as a measure of financial constraints, while offering mixed evidence on the validity of other common measures of constraints. We find that firm size a...

  7. Rational inattention dynamics: inertia and delay in decision-making

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Steiner, Jakub; Stewart, C.; Matějka, Filip

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 85, č. 2 (2017), s. 521-553 ISSN 0012-9682 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-34759S; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-00703S Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : rational inattention * stochastic choice * dynamic logit Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 3.379, year: 2016

  8. Spillover Effects of TV Advertising: The Case of Carbonated Soft Drinks

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xun; Lopez, Rigoberto A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the spillover effects of television brand advertising on consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks using a nested logit model and household purchase and advertising data from nine U.S. cities over a three year period. Spillover effects are modeled using the conventional linear advertising production function with brand and company advertising, which assumes perfect substitution and constant returns to scale, and the results are compared to those attained via a constant el...

  9. Labor Market Characteristics and the Labor Force Participation of Individuals,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-11-01

    dependent variable are well-known and range from frequent uninterpretability of results to bias in statistical tests (see, e.g., Hanushek and Jackson...shown that logit and probit analysis yield almost identical results near the means of relevant variables ( Hanushek and Jackson, 1977: 188- 189). We choose...general and lucid treatment of these and related points, see Hanushek and Jackson (1977:Ch. 7). Step 2: Analysis of labor market impact on individual

  10. Reimagine Procrastination: Music Preference and Health Habits as Factors on Self-Perceived Procrastination of Young People

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Shu

    2018-01-01

    As the buzzword phenomenon, procrastination holds a continued need for a comprehensive examination of its nature and the associated factors. The presented study explores the potential relationship between music taste, life style and the youngsters' procrastination through quantitative modelling. To handle the big set of survey statistics and the uncertainty caused by the data missingness, the combined methods of factor analysis, multiple imputation (MI) and Ordered logit regression are employ...

  11. Location-Price Competition in Airline Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Gao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses location-then-price competition in airline market as a two-stage game of n players on the graph. Passenger’s demand distribution is described by multinomial logit model. Equilibrium in price game is computed through best response dynamics. We solve location game using backward induction, knowing that airlines will choose prices from equilibrium for the second-stage game. Some numerical results for airline market under consideration are presented.

  12. Do media consumers really dislike advertising? An empirical assessment of the role of advertising in print media markets

    OpenAIRE

    Kaiser, U; Song, M

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses data on German consumer magazines observed between 1992 and 2004 to analyze the extent to which consumers (dis-)like advertising. We estimate logit demand models separately for the six most important magazine segments in terms of circulation. We find little evidence for readers disliking advertising. On the contrary, we show that readers in many magazine segments appreciate advertising. Readers of Women's magazines, Business and politics magazines as well as Car magazines ...

  13. Tingkat Kesetaraan Gender Ingkat Kesetaraan Gender Pada Industri Kulit Di Propinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogayakarta

    OpenAIRE

    Priyadi, Unggul; Astuti, Budi

    2009-01-01

    Leather industry is one of small industries in Special Yogyakarta Province which contributes Regional Gross Domestic Product (PDRB) and generates employment. This re¬search analyzes cross section data in 2000th using purposive sampling method for data col¬lecting. Data analysis is Gender Inequality and Equivalent Index (IKKG) and Logit Model. Based on the empirical analysis, conclusions of this research are: 1) IKKG of entrepreneur leathers who have Educational Elementary School (SD), SMP, an...

  14. Aproximación a un modelo de indicadores de alerta temprana considerando la función de pérdida del Banco Central

    OpenAIRE

    Armagno, Daniel; García Fronti, Javier; Rey, Sebastián

    2004-01-01

    Nuestro interés en este trabajo es estudiar las causas que llevan al debilitamiento de las entidades bancarias. Para ello incluiremos en el análisis, al responsable de la toma de decisiones del Banco Central que tiene en consideración una función de pérdida del tipo desarrollada en Dermirgüç–Kunt, A. and E. Detragiache (1999). Aplicando un modelo logit y evaluamos los resultados obtenidos.

  15. DETERMINANTS OF FAST FOOD CONSUMPTION

    OpenAIRE

    Fanning, Jasper; Marsh, Thomas L.; Stiegert, Kyle W.

    2002-01-01

    Socioeconomic determinants are investigated for both the likelihood of consuming fastfood and household expenditure on fastfood using the 1994-98 USDA Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals. The logit model is used to estimate an empirical relationship between probability an individual will consume fastfood and socioeconomic variables. The Tobit model is used to estimate an empirical relationship between expenditure on fastfood and socioeconomic variables. Significant socioeconomic ...

  16. Comparison of the psychometric properties of two balance scales in children with cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Yong-Jin; Kim, Gyoung-Mo

    2016-12-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to compare the item difficulty degree between the Pediatric Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance scale for children with cerebral palsy. [Subjects and Methods] Forty children with cerebral palsy (male=17, female=23) voluntarily participated in the study. Item difficulty was expressed in the Rasch analysis using a logit value, with a higher value indicative of increasing item difficulty. [Results] Among the 24 items of the combined Pediatric Balance Scale and Fullerton Advanced Balance scale, the most difficult item was "Walk with head turns", whereas, the easiest item was "Sitting with back unsupported and feet supported on the floor". Among the 14 items of the Pediatric Balance Scale, 9 items (item 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, and 12) had negative logit values, whereas for the Fullerton Advanced Balance scale, only 1 item (item 1) had a negative logit value. [Conclusion] The Fullerton Advanced Balance scale is a more appropriate tool to assess balance ability than the Pediatric Balance Scale in in a group of higher functioning children with cerebral palsy.

  17. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  18. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  19. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariel, Petr, E-mail: petr.mariel@ehu.es [UPV/EHU, Economía Aplicada III, Avda. Lehendakari Aguire, 83, 48015 Bilbao (Spain); Meyerhoff, Jürgen [Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technical University of Berlin, D-10623 Berlin, Germany and The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Duesternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel (Germany)

    2016-10-15

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  20. Explaining food insecurity among indigenous households of the Sierra Tarahumara in the Mexican state of Chihuahua

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordero-Ahiman, O.V.; Santellano-Estrada, E.; Garrido, A.

    2017-01-01

    Numerous studies have analyzed the factors that determine food security and explored the problem from regional or national points of view. However, there has been less research targeting an understanding of the food security problem at the household level in specific rural locations like indigenous communities. Indigenous groups are recognized as priority groups in Mexico, because they live in a situation of poverty. For this reason, the objective of this research was to investigate the determinants of food insecurity among the indigenous communities of the Sierra Tarahumara in Mexico. We used the Latin American and Caribbean Household Food Security Measurement Scale (ELCSA). This scale is useful for measuring food insecurity levels in households. A questionnaire was administered to 123 households. We employed the method based on Cronbach's alpha to measure internal consistency, which was 0.96. In addition, we estimated the main determinants of household food insecurity using both ordered logit model and binomial logit model. We found that approximately 59.35% of households were living in a situation of severe food insecurity. The two predictive models applied suggest that: i) income is the most important determinant of access to food; ii) increased maize production improves food security; iii) farmers consume their seed stocks in times of food scarcity, and iv) households are food insecure when the householders are in casual employment. Akaike's information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion suggest that the goodness of fit to the data was better for the ordered logit model.

  1. Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

    2011-06-01

    Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

  2. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  3. Modeling the Joint Choice Decisions on Urban Shopping Destination and Travel-to-Shop Mode: A Comparative Study of Different Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The joint choice of shopping destination and travel-to-shop mode in downtown area is described by making use of the cross-nested logit (CNL model structure that allows for potential interalternative correlation along the both choice dimensions. Meanwhile, the traditional multinomial logit (MNL model and nested logit (NL model are also formulated, respectively. This study uses the data collected in the downtown areas of Maryland-Washington, D.C. region, for shopping trips, considering household, individual, land use, and travel related characteristics. The results of the model reveal the significant influencing factors on joint choice travel behavior between shopping destination and travel mode. A comparison of the different models shows that the proposed CNL model structure offers significant improvements in capturing unobserved correlations between alternatives over MNL model and NL model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation for a group of scenarios assuming that there is an increase in parking fees in downtown area is undertaken to examine the impact of a change in car travel cost on the joint choice of shopping destination and travel mode switching. The results are expected to give a better understanding on the shopping travel behavior.

  4. Airport terminal choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Helena Muñoz-Hoyos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La mayoría de los estudios del modo aéreo han tratado individua lmente los aspectos de tarifas, demoras y demás variables inher entes a este medio de transporte, así como la elección del modo aéreo f rente a otros modos, pero poco se ha hecho por modelar cómo un viajero elige un aeropuerto entre dos opciones disponibles en una gran ciudad. En la actualidad un pasajero que parte de la ciudad de Medellín - Colombia a algunos destinos nacionales, tiene la opción de v iajar por alguno de los dos aeropuertos, el José María Córdova (JMC o el Enriqu e Olaya Herrera (EOH; esta investigación presenta los resultad os de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas en un experimento de elecci ón discreta, y partiendo de esto se obtiene un modelo por desti no; para cada uno de estos se hallaron modelos logit multinomial y logit mixt o; en cada trayecto evaluado se eligió el logit multinomial com o el mejor.

  5. Accounting Fraud: an estimation of detection probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Filipe Ewald Wuerges

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial statement fraud (FSF is costly for investors and can damage the credibility of the audit profession. To prevent and detect fraud, it is helpful to know its causes. The binary choice models (e.g. logit and probit commonly used in the extant literature, however, fail to account for undetected cases of fraud and thus present unreliable hypotheses tests. Using a sample of 118 companies accused of fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC, we estimated a logit model that corrects the problems arising from undetected frauds in U.S. companies. To avoid multicollinearity problems, we extracted seven factors from 28 variables using the principal factors method. Our results indicate that only 1.43 percent of the instances of FSF were publicized by the SEC. Of the six significant variables included in the traditional, uncorrected logit model, three were found to be actually non-significant in the corrected model. The likelihood of FSF is 5.12 times higher when the firm’s auditor issues an adverse or qualified report.

  6. The effects of improved maize technology on household welfare in Buruku, Benue State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria I. Audu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study was carried out to determine the welfare effects of improved maize technology in Buruku Local Government Area of Benue State, Nigeria. The study also examined the determinants of the adoption of improved maize technology. Structured questionnaires were used in collecting the primary data for the study. A multi-stage random technique was used in selecting 125 farm households for the study. The Logit and ordinary least square (OLS models were used in analyzing the data. The OLS results show that adoption of improved maize varieties is positively and significantly related to household welfare and thus has contributed to moving farm households out of poverty. Other variables found to be statistically significant in explaining household welfare are education, household size, and landholding. The Logit results show that age, household size, off-farm income, and education were found to be significant in influencing farmers’ adoption decisions. Some robustness checks were performed with different specifications of the Logit and OLS models as well as re-estimation with propensity matching score approach. Overall, the results are robust to different specifications.

  7. Explaining food insecurity among indigenous households of the Sierra Tarahumara in the Mexican state of Chihuahua

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cordero-Ahiman, O.V.; Santellano-Estrada, E.; Garrido, A.

    2017-09-01

    Numerous studies have analyzed the factors that determine food security and explored the problem from regional or national points of view. However, there has been less research targeting an understanding of the food security problem at the household level in specific rural locations like indigenous communities. Indigenous groups are recognized as priority groups in Mexico, because they live in a situation of poverty. For this reason, the objective of this research was to investigate the determinants of food insecurity among the indigenous communities of the Sierra Tarahumara in Mexico. We used the Latin American and Caribbean Household Food Security Measurement Scale (ELCSA). This scale is useful for measuring food insecurity levels in households. A questionnaire was administered to 123 households. We employed the method based on Cronbach's alpha to measure internal consistency, which was 0.96. In addition, we estimated the main determinants of household food insecurity using both ordered logit model and binomial logit model. We found that approximately 59.35% of households were living in a situation of severe food insecurity. The two predictive models applied suggest that: i) income is the most important determinant of access to food; ii) increased maize production improves food security; iii) farmers consume their seed stocks in times of food scarcity, and iv) households are food insecure when the householders are in casual employment. Akaike's information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion suggest that the goodness of fit to the data was better for the ordered logit model.

  8. Modelling of binary logistic regression for obesity among secondary students in a rural area of Kedah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruddin, Ainur Amira; Ali, Zalila; Noor, Norlida Mohd.; Baharum, Adam; Ahmad, Wan Muhamad Amir W.

    2014-07-01

    Logistic regression analysis examines the influence of various factors on a dichotomous outcome by estimating the probability of the event's occurrence. Logistic regression, also called a logit model, is a statistical procedure used to model dichotomous outcomes. In the logit model the log odds of the dichotomous outcome is modeled as a linear combination of the predictor variables. The log odds ratio in logistic regression provides a description of the probabilistic relationship of the variables and the outcome. In conducting logistic regression, selection procedures are used in selecting important predictor variables, diagnostics are used to check that assumptions are valid which include independence of errors, linearity in the logit for continuous variables, absence of multicollinearity, and lack of strongly influential outliers and a test statistic is calculated to determine the aptness of the model. This study used the binary logistic regression model to investigate overweight and obesity among rural secondary school students on the basis of their demographics profile, medical history, diet and lifestyle. The results indicate that overweight and obesity of students are influenced by obesity in family and the interaction between a student's ethnicity and routine meals intake. The odds of a student being overweight and obese are higher for a student having a family history of obesity and for a non-Malay student who frequently takes routine meals as compared to a Malay student.

  9. ON THE PERFORMANCE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEMETHODS FOR FAILURE PREDICTION: EVIDENCE FROMISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr Hakan Er

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of business failure is a widely studied subject in financialliterature. Many earlier studies on this topic employed statistical methods such asmultiple discriminant analysis, logit and probit topredict corporate failure usingpast financial data (especially the ratio data. However, there has been a recentsurge in academic interest in the use of artificialintelligence (AI methods topredict financial distress. Numerous studies documented that AI methodsoutperform traditional methods. Majority of these studies used data fromestablished markets, the number of studies on emerging market data is ratherlimited and only a handful of studies employed Turkish data for analysis. Thisstudy aims to contribute to the literature by applying the artificial neural networksto predict deletions from Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE National 100 Index. Thesample is constructed using the quarterly fundamental data of the companies listedin this index the period between January 2008 and December 2012. We employedNeural Networks (NN, logit and probit to predict deletions from index onequarter before they have occurred. Results show that although the logit providesslightly better in-sample predictions, all of the methods fail to identify deletions inthe out-of-sample periods.

  10. SU-F-T-104: Determining the NTCP Parameters of Pharyngeal Constrictors and Proximal Esophagus for Radiation Induced Swallowing Problems Recorded Six Months After Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Tumors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mavroidis, P; Price, A; Kostich, M; Green, R; Das, S; Marks, L; Chera, B [University North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Amdur, R; Mendenhall, W [University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States); Sheets, N [University of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To estimate the radiobiological parameters of four NTCP models that describe the dose-response relations of pharyngeal constrictors and proximal esophagus regarding the severity of patient reported swallowing problems 6 months post chemo-radiotherapy. To identify the section/structure that best correlates with the manifestation of the clinical endpoints. Finally, to compare the goodness-of-fit of those models. Methods: Forty-three patients were treated on a prospective multi-institutional phase II study for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. All the patients received 60 Gy IMRT and they reported symptoms using the novel patient reported outcome version of the CTCAE. We derived the individual patient dosimetric data of superior, medium and inferior sections of pharyngeal constrictors (SPC, MPC and IPC), superior and inferior sections of esophagus (SES and IES) as separate structures as well as combinations. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Relative Seriality (RS), Logit and Relative Logit (RL) NTCP models were used to fit the patient data. The fitting of the different models was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Odds Ratio methods. Results: The AUC values were highest for the SPC for Grade ≥ 2 (0.719 for the RS and RL models, and 0.716 for LKB and Logit). For Grade ≥ 1, the respective values were 0.699 for RS, LKB and Logit and 0.676 for RL. For MPC the AUC values varied between 0.463–0.477, for IPC between 0.396–0.458, for SES between 0.556–0.613 and for IES between 0.410–0.519. The Odds Ratio for the SPC was 15.6 (1.7–146.4) for RS, LKB and Logit for NTCP of 55%. Conclusion: All the examined NTCP models could fit the clinical data with similar accuracy. The SPC appear to correlate best with the clinical endpoints of swallowing problems. A prospective study could establish the use of NTCP values of SPC as a constraint in treatment planning.

  11. SU-D-204-05: Fitting Four NTCP Models to Treatment Outcome Data of Salivary Glands Recorded Six Months After Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Tumors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mavroidis, P; Price, A; Kostich, M; Green, R; Das, S; Marks, L; Chera, B [University North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States); Amdur, R; Mendenhall, W [University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States); Sheets, N [University of North Carolina, Raleigh, NC (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To estimate the radiobiological parameters of four popular NTCP models that describe the dose-response relations of salivary glands to the severity of patient reported dry mouth 6 months post chemo-radiotherapy. To identify the glands, which best correlate with the manifestation of those clinical endpoints. Finally, to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the NTCP models. Methods: Forty-three patients were treated on a prospective multiinstitutional phase II study for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. All the patients received 60 Gy IMRT and they reported symptoms using the novel patient reported outcome version of the CTCAE. We derived the individual patient dosimetric data of the parotid and submandibular glands (SMG) as separate structures as well as combinations. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Relative Seriality (RS), Logit and Relative Logit (RL) NTCP models were used to fit the patients data. The fitting of the different models was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Odds Ratio methods. Results: The AUC values were highest for the contralateral parotid for Grade ≥ 2 (0.762 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.753 for the RL). For the salivary glands the AUC values were: 0.725 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.721 for the RL. For the contralateral SMG the AUC values were: 0.721 for LKB, 0.714 for Logit and 0.712 for RS and RL. The Odds Ratio for the contralateral parotid was 5.8 (1.3–25.5) for all the four NTCP models for the radiobiological dose threshold of 21Gy. Conclusion: It was shown that all the examined NTCP models could fit the clinical data well with very similar accuracy. The contralateral parotid gland appears to correlated best with the clinical endpoints of severe/very severe dry mouth. An EQD2Gy dose of 21Gy appears to be a safe threshold to be used as a constraint in treatment planning.

  12. [The importance of memory bias in obtaining age of menarche by recall method in Brazilian adolescents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilho, Silvia Diez; Nucci, Luciana Bertoldi; Assuino, Samanta Ramos; Hansen, Lucca Ortolan

    2014-06-01

    To compare the age at menarche obtained by recall method according to the time elapsed since the event, in order to verify the importance of the recall bias. Were evaluated 1,671 girls (7-18 years) at schools in Campinas-SP regarding the occurrence of menarche by the status quo method (menarche: yes or no) and the recall method (date of menarche, for those who mentioned it). The age at menarche obtained by the status quo method was calculated by logit, which considers the whole group, and the age obtained by the recall method was calculated as the average of the mentioned age at menarche. In this group, the age at menarche was obtained by the difference between the date of the event and the date of birth. Girls who reported menarche (883, 52.8%) were divided into four groups according to the time elapsed since the event. To analyze the results, we used ANOVA and logistic regression for the analysis, with a significance level of 0.05. The age at menarche calculated by logit was 12.14 y/o (95% CI 12.08 to 12.20). Mean ages obtained by recall were: for those who experienced menarche within the previous year 12.26 y/o (±1.14), between > 1-2 years before, 12.29 y (±1.22); between > 2-3 years before, 12.23 y/o (±1.27); and more than 3 years before, 11.55y/o (±1.24), p recall method was similar for girls who menstruated within the previous 3 years (and approaches the age calculated by logit); when more than 3 years have passed, the recall bias was significant.

  13. Evaluating the market splitting determinants: evidence from the Iberian spot electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da; Cerqueira, Pedro A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the main determinants on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. Iberia stands as an ideal case-study, where the high level deployment of wind power is observed, together with the implementation of the market splitting arrangement between the Portuguese and the Spanish spot electricity markets. Logit and non-parametric models are used to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices as a function of the explanatory variables representing the main technologies in the generation mix: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power, together with the available transfer capacity and electricity demand. Logit models give preliminary indications about market splitting behaviour, and then, notwithstanding the demanding computational challenge, a non-parametric model is applied in order to overcome the limitations of the former models. Results show an increase of market splitting probability with higher wind power generation or, more generally, with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity such as nuclear power generation. The European interconnection capacity target of 10% of the peak demand of the smallest interconnected market might be insufficient to maintain electricity market integration. Therefore, pro-active coordination policies, governing both interconnections and renewables deployment, should be further developed. -- Highlights: •Assess determinants on market splitting behaviour of Iberian electricity markets. •Logit and non-parametric models to express market splitting probability response. •Explanatory variables: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power; ATC and demand. •Results: increase of market splitting probability with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity. •Coordination policies governing both interconnections and renewables deployment

  14. Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Their Implications in the Zou Department of South Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adégnandjou Mahouna Roland Fadina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on agricultural activities in developing countries has increased dramatically. Understanding how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt to it is very important to the implementation of adequate policies for agricultural and food security. This paper aims to contribute to an understanding of farmers’ adaptation choices, determinants of the adaptation choices and the long-term implications of the adaptation choices. Data were collected from 120 respondents in the Zou Department of Benin. A binary logit model was used to analyze the factors influencing household decisions to adapt to climate change. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was estimated to analyze the factors influencing households’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate change. The results show that farmers have a developed perception of climate change. These changes are translated by rainfall disturbances (rainfall delays, early cessation, bad rainfall distribution etc., shortening of the small dry season, increasing of temperature and sometimes, violent winds. The survey reveals that Benin farmers adopt many strategies in response to climate change. These strategies include “Crop–livestock diversification and other good practices (mulching, organic fertilizer,” “Use of improved varieties, chemical fertilizers and pesticides,” “Agroforestry and perennial plantation” and “Diversification of income-generating activities.” The findings also reveal that most of the respondents use these strategies in combination. From the binary logit model, we know that “farming experience” and “educational level of household head” positively influence adaptation decisions. The result of the multinomial logit analysis shows that farming experience, educational level, farm size and gender have a significant impact on climate change adaptation strategies. Based on in-depth analysis of each strategy, we

  15. Tras los rastros de la movilización social y la confianza pública: apuntes sobre capital social y desarrollo en el departamento del Cauca

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Cortés Landázury

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available El presente artículo busca en la actividad movilizatoria post reformas institucionales de la década del 90, rastros de capital social en el Departamento del Cauca. Se establece una relación entre dicha actividad movilizatoria y la estructura de las organizaciones de la sociedad civil del Cauca, a través de un modelo econométrico (logit bivariado, que pretende mostrar los principales determinantes del capital social interno y externo, impulsores del desarrollo regional.

  16. The relationship between product quality and transaction costs with vertical coordination in DOC Rioja wine grape industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernanez-Olmos, M.; Rossell-Martinez, J.; Espitia-Escuer, M. A.

    2009-07-01

    This paper analyzes the relationship between product quality and governance mode choice (market mode, hybrid mode or vertical integration) using the results of a survey of 187 qualified appellation of origin (DOC) Rioja wineries. By estimating a generalized ordered logit, it is concluded that wineries that produce high-quality wines are more likely to vertically integrate than are wineries that produce low-quality wines. Consistent with transaction cost economics, evidence is found that asset specificity and uncertainty are important determinants of vertical integration. Finally, the size of the winery is also an important factor that affects governance mode choice in viticulture. (Author)

  17. Cyclists' Behaviour: identification of factors on commuting by bicycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kátia Andrade

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In Japan, cycling is a widely accepted transportation mode and often used for commuting or other purposes. Accordingly, this paper focuses on the reasons that motivate people to cycle, even though the Japanese transportation policies towards cycling are somewhat limited when compared to other countries with high cycling levels. Behavioural and statistical analyses are presented with a focus on unimodal commuting trips. In the behavioural analysis, commuters’ views on cycling are presented. In the statistical analysis, Nested Logit models are estimated to assess factors with strong influence on cycling. This paper contributes to further understanding the behaviour of active cyclists.

  18. Price vector effects in choice experiments: an empirical test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanley, Nick; Wright, Robert E.; Adamowicz, Wiktor

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates whether the preference and willingness-to-pay estimates obtained from the choice experiment method of estimating non-market values are sensitive to the vector of prices used in the experimental design. We undertake this test in the context of water quality improvements under the European Union's new Water Framework Directive. Using a mixed logit model, which allows for differing scale between the two samples, we find no significant impact of changing the price vector on estimates of preferences or willingness-to-pay. (author) (Choice modelling; Non-market valuation; Design effects; Water Framework Directive)

  19. Attitudinal travel demand model for non-work trips of homogeneously constrained segments of a population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Recker, W.W.; Stevens, R.F.

    1977-06-01

    Market-segmentation techniques are used to capture effects of opportunity and availability constraints on urban residents' choice of mode for trips for major grocery shopping and for visiting friends and acquaintances. Attitudinal multinomial logit choice models are estimated for each market segment. Explanatory variables are individual's beliefs about attributes of four modal alternatives: bus, car, taxi and walking. Factor analysis is employed to identify latent dimensions of perception of the modal alternatives and to eliminate problems of multicollinearity in model estimation.

  20. Child Labour or School Attendance? Evidence from Zambia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Peter; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate what affects school attendance and child labour in an LDC, using data for Zambia. Since the data come from a household survey with information on all household members, it allows us to take account of unobserved household effects by introducing household specific...... effects in a logit model. The empirical analysis suggests that both economic and sociological variables are important determinants for the choice between school attendance and child labour. In particular, we find some support for the hypothesis that poverty forces households to keep their children away...

  1. Continuidad y desempeño exportador en la empresa peruana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Malca Guaylupo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available El presente artículo estudia la relación entre la continuidad de las empresas en los mercados internacionales y su desempeño exportador. Para ello, el estudio se centra en las empresas exportadoras peruanas durante el periodo 2000 a 2008, etapa en la cual las exportaciones peruanas tuvieron un crecimiento continuo. Se analizan los resultados alcanzados en los mercados internacionales, y a través del modelo LOGIT establece la relación probabilística entre su continuidad en dichos mercados y el resultado exportador medido en ventas de exportación.

  2. Aggravating andmitigating factors associated with cyclist injury severity in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Vavatsoulas,, Konstantinos; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    severity on Danish roads by examining a comprehensive set of accidents involving a cyclist and a collision partner between 2007 and 2011. Method: This study estimates a generalized ordered logit model of the severity of cyclist injuries because of its ability to accommodate the ordered-response nature...... of severity while relaxing the proportional odds assumption. Results: Model estimates show that cyclist fragility (children under 10 years old and elderly cyclists over 60 years of age) and cyclist intoxication are aggravating individual factors,while helmet use is a mitigating factor. Speed limits above 70...

  3. Meta-analysis data for 104 Energy-Economy Nexus papers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Hajko

    2017-06-01

    Data cover papers indexed by Scopus, published in economic journals, written in English, after year 2000. In addition, papers were manually filtered to only those that deal with Energy-Economy Nexus investigation and have at least 10 citations at (at the time of query – November 2015. This data are to be used to conduct meta-analysis – associated dataset was used in Hajko [1]. Early version of the dataset was used for multinomial logit estimation in Master thesis by Kociánová [2].

  4. Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    A. Colin Cameron; Jonah B. Gelbach; Douglas L. Miller; Doug Miller

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we propose a variance estimator for the OLS estimator as well as for nonlinear estimators such as logit, probit and GMM. This variance estimator enables cluster-robust inference when there is two-way or multi-way clustering that is non-nested. The variance estimator extends the standard cluster-robust variance estimator or sandwich estimator for one-way clustering (e.g. Liang and Zeger (1986), Arellano (1987)) and relies on similar relatively weak distributional assumptions. Our...

  5. Demand for alternative-fuel vehicles when registration taxes are high

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the potential futures for alternative-fuel vehicles in Denmark, where the vehicle registration tax is very high and large tax rebates can be given. A large stated choice dataset has been collected concerning vehicle choice among conventional, hydrogen, hybrid, bio......-diesel, and electric vehicles. We estimate a mixed logit model that improves on previous contributions by controlling for reference dependence and allowing for correlation of random effects. Both improvements are found to be important. An application of the model shows that alternative-fuel vehicles with present...... technology could obtain fairly high market shares given tax regulations possible in the present high-tax vehicle market....

  6. Impact of First Eye versus Second Eye Cataract Surgery on Visual Function and Quality of Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekhawat, Nakul S; Stock, Michael V; Baze, Elizabeth F; Daly, Mary K; Vollman, David E; Lawrence, Mary G; Chomsky, Amy S

    2017-10-01

    To compare the impact of first eye versus second eye cataract surgery on visual function and quality of life. Cohort study. A total of 328 patients undergoing separate first eye and second eye phacoemulsification cataract surgeries at 5 veterans affairs centers in the United States. Patients with previous ocular surgery, postoperative endophthalmitis, postoperative retinal detachment, reoperation within 30 days, dementia, anxiety disorder, hearing difficulty, or history of drug abuse were excluded. Patients received complete preoperative and postoperative ophthalmic examinations for first eye and second eye cataract surgeries. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was measured 30 to 90 days preoperatively and postoperatively. Patients completed the National Eye Institute Visual Functioning Questionnaire (NEI-VFQ) 30 to 90 days preoperatively and postoperatively. The NEI-VFQ scores were calculated using a traditional subscale scoring algorithm and a Rasch-refined approach producing visual function and socioemotional subscale scores. Postoperative NEI-VFQ scores and improvement in NEI-VFQ scores comparing first eye versus second eye cataract surgery. Mean age was 70.4 years (±9.6 standard deviation [SD]). Compared with second eyes, first eyes had worse mean preoperative BCVA (0.55 vs. 0.36 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR), P < 0.001), greater mean BCVA improvement after surgery (-0.50 vs. -0.32 logMAR, P < 0.001), and slightly worse postoperative BCVA (0.06 vs. 0.03 logMAR, P = 0.039). Compared with first eye surgery, second eye surgery resulted in higher postoperative NEI-VFQ scores for nearly all traditional subscales (P < 0.001), visual function subscale (-3.85 vs. -2.91 logits, P < 0.001), and socioemotional subscale (-2.63 vs. -2.10 logits, P < 0.001). First eye surgery improved visual function scores more than second eye surgery (-2.99 vs. -2.67 logits, P = 0.021), but both first and second eye surgeries resulted in similar

  7. Two Notes on Discrimination and Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helena Skyt

    1998-01-01

    1. It turns out that the Oaxaca-Blinder wage decomposition is inadequate when it comes to calculation of separate contributions for indicator variables. The contributions are not robust against a change of reference group. I extend the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to handle this problem. 2. The p....... The paper suggests how to use the logit model to decompose the gender difference in the probability of an occurrence. The technique is illustrated by an analysis of discrimination in child labor in rural Zambia....

  8. Route effect on the perception of public transport services quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chica-Olmo, J.; Gachs-Sanchez, H.M.; Lizarraga, C.

    2016-07-01

    User satisfaction sets a basic example for public service quality, especially those considered as basic necessities. The quality in transport service related to conceptualization and measurement, as a decisive demand key, presents challenges for both economic and mobility policies.Several operator companies are involved in the transport sector. Therefore this report aims to design a model of overall satisfaction based on the level of satisfaction with a specific set of factors, considering individual characteristics of users and the differential effect of different bus lines.The current presentation has applied a combined method, using Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis (NLPCA) and a Logit Multilevel Model (LMLM) in two-steps. (Author)

  9. Discrete Choice and Rational Inattention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Melo, Emerson; de Palma, André

    2017-01-01

    This paper establishes a general equivalence between discrete choice and rational inattention models. Matejka and McKay (2015, AER) showed that when information costs are modelled using the Shannon entropy, the result- ing choice probabilities in the rational inattention model take the multinomial...... logit form. We show that when information costs are modelled using a class of generalized entropies, then the choice probabilities in any rational inattention model are observationally equivalent to some additive random utility discrete choice model and vice versa. This equivalence arises from convex...

  10. Estimating preferences for local public services using migration data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlberg, Matz; Eklöf, Matias; Fredriksson, Peter; Jofre-Monseny, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Using Swedish micro data, the paper examines the impact of local public services on community choice. The choice of community is modelled as a choice between a discrete set of alternatives. It is found that, given taxes, high spending on child care attracts migrants. Less conclusive results are obtained with respect to the role of spending on education and elderly care. High local taxes deter migrants. Relaxing the independence of the irrelevant alternatives assumption, by estimating a mixed logit model, has a significant impact on the results.

  11. Influence of Immunology Knowledge on Healthcare and Healthy Lifestyle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noor Lide Abu Kassim

    Full Text Available Completing a course in Immunology is expected to improve health care knowledge (HCK, which in turn is anticipated to influence a healthy lifestyle (HLS, controlled use of health care services (HCS and an awareness of emerging health care concerns (HCC. This cross-sectional study was designed to determine whether these interrelationships are empirically supported. Participants involved in this study were government servants from two ministries in Malaysia (n = 356 and university students from a local university (n = 147. Participants were selected using the non-random purposive sampling method. Data were collected using a self-developed questionnaire, which had been validated in a pilot study involving similar subjects. The questionnaire items were analyzed using Rasch analysis, SPSS version 21 and AMOS version 22. Results have shown that participants who followed a course in Immunology (CoI had a higher primary HCK (Mean = 0.69 logit, SD = 1.29 logits compared with those who had not (Mean = -0.27logit, SD = 1.26 logits. Overall, there were significant correlations among the HLS, the awareness of emerging HCC, and the controlled use of HCS (p <0.001. However, no significant correlations were observed between primary HCK and the other variables. However, significant positive correlation was observed between primary HCK and controlled use of HCS for the group without CoI. Path analysis showed that the awareness of emerging HCC exerted a positive influence on controlled use of HCS (β = 0.156, p < .001 and on HLS (β = 0.224, p < .001. These findings suggest that having CoI helps increase primary HCK which influences controlled use of HCS but does not necessarily influence HLS. Hence, introducing Immunology at various levels of education and increasing the public awareness of emerging HCC might help to improve population health en masse. In addition, further investigations on the factors affecting HLS is required to provide a better understanding on

  12. ¿Selección positiva o negativa? Inserción de la migración interna y el desplazamiento forzado en el mercado laboral urbano de Colombia, 2001-2006

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Adriana Carolina; Guataquí, Juan Carlos

    2011-01-01

    Resumen Se analizan los determinantes socioeconómicos de la inserción laboral de migrantes recientes y de desplazados forzados en las diez principales ciudades de Colombia utilizando información de la Encuesta Continua de Hogares (2001-2006). Se adapta el marco teórico de selección del migrante internacional de Borjas (1982, 1985, 1987, 1990) a los casos de migración interna voluntaria o involuntaria. Además, mediante la estimación de un modelo Logit para conocer la propensión a ocuparse y de...

  13. A Monte Carlo experiment to analyze the curse of dimensionality in estimating random coefficients models with a full variance–covariance matrix

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Guevara, Cristian Angelo

    2012-01-01

    of parameters increases is usually known as the “curse of dimensionality” in the simulation methods. We investigate this problem in the case of the random coefficients Logit model. We compare the traditional Maximum Simulated Likelihood (MSL) method with two alternative estimation methods: the Expectation......–Maximization (EM) and the Laplace Approximation (HH) methods that do not require simulation. We use Monte Carlo experimentation to investigate systematically the performance of the methods under different circumstances, including different numbers of variables, sample sizes and structures of the variance...

  14. Entrepreneurship and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia E. Santana Vega

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This work studied the entrepreneurial aspirations of 3,987 adolescents regarding self-employment and the influence of gender, age, nationality, type of school, location of the school, educational level and performance. The Logit model is used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the pupils’ aspirations to be self-employed increase in the case of foreigners, of studying in a state school, of having a lower educational level and of demonstrating a low academic performance. The results were not statistically significant for the gender and age variables. The curriculum and guidance programmes need to promote a spirit of entrepreneurship and creativity in young people.

  15. Consumer Credit Card Use Intention and Influence Factors Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yantao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Credit card as a kind of advanced means of payment and the new way of consumer credit in the world widely, but in our country is faced with some problems, such as their per capita spending is low, open the card number is small, motionless bank card is a lot. In this paper, using the Logit model to analyze the Anshan city in Liaoning province consumer credit card usage. And combined with empirical analysis to provide banking management Suggestions and marketing countermeasures, including targeted to provide different kinds of credit card.

  16. Are formalised implementation activities associated with aspects of quality of care in general practice?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Videbæk Le, Jette; Pedersen, Line Bjørnskov; Riisgaard, Helle

    2017-01-01

    questionnaire was distributed to GPs, and data on spirometry testing among first-time users of medication against obstructive lung diseases were obtained from national registers. Associations were investigated using multilevel mixed-effect logit models. Results GPs from 1,114 practices (58%) responded, and 33......-handed practices as in partnerships. Conclusion This study provides valuable knowledge for GPs who aim to organise their practice in a way that supports implementation and quality improvement most effectively. Also, results might be useful for managers of implementation strategies and quality improvement...

  17. Electoral system, pesonal votes, and party choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Søren Risbjerg

    Using local elections in Denmark as an example this paper shows that individual party choice is influenced both by individual level, municipality level, and national level characteristics. Some hypotheses about the effects of the electoral system on personal votes derived from a theory by Carey...... & Shugart (1995) are first tested using a fixed-effects model. The effect of the personal reputation of the candidates, measured by personal votes, on party choice is then tested using a multilevel multinomial logit model suggested by Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal (2008). The paper shows that both the electoral...

  18. A quantitative analysis of major determinants of rural-urban migration in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyanwu, S O

    1992-11-01

    "This paper discusses some major determinants of rural-urban migration in Nigeria using the logit estimation technique. It utilizes cross-sectional data generated from a national sample survey of internal migration conducted...between January and March 1988.... The empirical results revealed that the significant determinants of rural-urban migration in Nigeria are income, contact, cost, spoken English, ability to speak two Nigerian languages, distance, marital status, sex and ethnicity. The results further suggest that rural-urban migration is selective of single people and males. Proximity to urban areas where prospective migrants have relatives, friends and townspeople is an important factor." excerpt

  19. Transitions between states of labor-force participation among older Israelis

    OpenAIRE

    Achdut, Leah; Tur-Sinai, Aviad; Troitsky, Rita

    2014-01-01

    The study examines the labor-force behavior of Israelis at older ages, focusing on the determinants of the transitions between states of labor-force participation between 2005 and 2010. The study uses panel data from the first two waves of the SHARE-Israel longitudinal survey. A multinomial logit model is used to examine the impact of sociodemographic characteristics, health state, and economic resources on labor-force transitions of people aged 50–67. The results emphasize the role of age an...

  20. Las preferencias de los consumidores españoles hacia las cocinas étnicas

    OpenAIRE

    Camarena Gómez, Dena María; Sanjuán López, Ana Isabel

    2012-01-01

    Las cocinas étnicas forman parte de las nuevas tendencias en el consumo de la población española. Su introducción, aunque reciente, ha logrado hacerse un espacio en los canales de distribución minorista y consolidarse en el gusto de los consumidores. Con el fin de analizar las preferencias manifestadas por los consumidores españoles hacia distintas cocinas étnicas y situaciones de consumo, se ha realizado un experimento de elección y estimado un modelo logit mixto. A partir de est...

  1. Don’t Work, Work at Home, or Commute? Discrete Choice Models of the Decision for San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, D T; Mokhtarian, Patricia L

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  2. Modeling the Joint Labor-Commute Engagement Decisions of San Francisco Bay Area Residents

    OpenAIRE

    Ory, David T.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    2005-01-01

    Using socio-demographic, personality, and attitudinal data from 1,680 residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, we develop and estimate binary, multinomial, and nested logit models of the choice to work or not, whether or not to work at home, and whether to commute all of the time or some of the time (either by only working part time, or by working a compressed work week, or by telecommuting some of the time). To our knowledge, these are the first models of all these choices simultaneously. Th...

  3. CATDAT : A Program for Parametric and Nonparametric Categorical Data Analysis : User's Manual Version 1.0, 1998-1999 Progress Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, James T.

    1999-12-01

    Natural resource professionals are increasingly required to develop rigorous statistical models that relate environmental data to categorical responses data. Recent advances in the statistical and computing sciences have led to the development of sophisticated methods for parametric and nonparametric analysis of data with categorical responses. The statistical software package CATDAT was designed to make some of these relatively new and powerful techniques available to scientists. The CATDAT statistical package includes 4 analytical techniques: generalized logit modeling; binary classification tree; extended K-nearest neighbor classification; and modular neural network.

  4. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on obesity in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, Ehsan

    2014-06-01

    The paper used longitudinal Canadian data from the National Population Health Survey to estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions measured by provincial unemployment rate on individual obesity and BMI. To control for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity, the study utilized the conditional fixed effect logit and fixed effects models. The study found that unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on the probability of being severely obese. The study also found that unemployment rate significantly increased BMI. However, the study did not find any significant impact of unemployment rate on the probability of being overweight or obese. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. An investigation on the effect of central bank money injection on creating currency crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazi Mohamadzadeh Asl

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of different factors influencing on supplement of currency in Iran and the likelihood of currency crises. The study implements two methods of Logit and Probit to determine the likelihood of currency crises based on the historical data over the period 1989-2012. In this study, currency crisis is defined in terms of three variables of currency change on market, interest rate and central bank foreign deposits. The results of the study indicate that the ratio of government (non-government liabilities to central bank/Growth domestic product (GDP has positive (negative relationship with currency crises.

  6. With Health and Good Food, Great Life!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lobos, Germán; Grunert, Klaus G; Bustamante, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    and multiple comparison tests. Ordered logit models were computed to examine the determinants of happiness. We find that satisfaction related to food, perception of health and functionality are significantly linked to individual happiness within both gender groups. An influential predictor of female...... with an inflection point at the age of 77.5 years. This research suggests that the design and formulation of public policies on rural older adults should consider subjective welfare factors they perceive as predictors of happiness and not only objective factors related to well-being....

  7. The Audit Committee Characteristics and Earnings Quality: Evidence from Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allam Mohammed Mousa Hamdan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to investigate the relationship between audit committee characteristics and earnings management. Samples in the study included 50 industrial companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange ASE. Two models were used to measure earnings quality: one which depends on earnings continuity as an indication of quality, and one which depends on the decrease of discretionary accruals of quality, using pooled data regression for the two tests (Ordinary Least Squares OLS and Binary Logit. The study found that there was an influence of some standard characteristics of the audit committee on earnings quality.

  8. Gaussian Process Regression Model in Spatial Logistic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofro, A.; Oktaviarina, A.

    2018-01-01

    Spatial analysis has developed very quickly in the last decade. One of the favorite approaches is based on the neighbourhood of the region. Unfortunately, there are some limitations such as difficulty in prediction. Therefore, we offer Gaussian process regression (GPR) to accommodate the issue. In this paper, we will focus on spatial modeling with GPR for binomial data with logit link function. The performance of the model will be investigated. We will discuss the inference of how to estimate the parameters and hyper-parameters and to predict as well. Furthermore, simulation studies will be explained in the last section.

  9. How flexible is flexible? Accounting for the effect of rescheduling possibilities in choice of departure time for work trips

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Rich, Jeppe

    2016-01-01

    for each of these activities. We then built a stated preference experiment to infer preferences on departure time choice, and estimated a mixed logit model, based on the scheduling model, to account for the effects of daily activity schedules and their constraints. Our results show that measuring......In departure time studies it is crucial to ascertain whether or not individuals are flexible in their choices. Previous studies have found that individuals with flexible work times have a lower value of time for late arrivals. Flexibility is usually measured in terms of flexible work start time...... is not accounted for....

  10. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Chen; Zuo-xian Gan; Yu-ting He

    2015-01-01

    Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL) model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all great...

  11. Patient preferences for diabetes management among people with type 2 diabetes in Denmark - a discrete choice experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøgelund, Mette; Vilsbøll, Tina; Faber, Jens

    2011-01-01

    and results were analysed using a standard statistical model designed for choice sets (conditional logit). Six characteristics relating to treatment of diabetes were examined: glycated haemoglobin level (HbA1c), weight (gain or loss), hypoglycaemic events, need for injections, transient nausea and need...... by dropping one percentage point in HbA1c level. Avoidance of nausea and a reduction in hypoglycaemic events from two per month to none was also highly valued. Patients were willing to accept one injection per day if they, for instance, simultaneously lost 1.4¿kg. A limitation of the study is that the survey...

  12. Determinantes de la demanda por Educación Superior en cinco regiones de Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    Giraldo Giraldo, María Paulina; Pareja Giraldo, Lady Carolina

    2014-01-01

    Este artículo estudia algunos de los determinantes de la demanda por educación superior en cinco regiones de Colombia -- Se utiliza información de la gran encuesta integrada de hogares (GEIH) para estimar un modelo Logit dicotómico por cada región, haciendo uso de las variables sociales y personales identificadas como determinantes, permitiendo realizar un análisis comparativo entre estos -- Los resultados del estudio sugieren que la edad, el ingreso percápita en los hogares y la educación de...

  13. Dinámica de los predictores de adopción de Internet en Medellín

    OpenAIRE

    Díez Arango, Daniela; Lalinde Mery, David

    2016-01-01

    En este trabajo se propone analizar la dinámica del impacto asociado a algunos predictores de la adopción de internet en la ciudad de Medellín (Colombia), utilizando como base de datos la Encuesta de calidad de vida de Medellín (ECV) desde el año 2006 a 2014 -- Se analizarán que variables inciden en la tenencia de internet, se realizará la estadística descriptiva necesaria, y regresiones mediante los modelos Logit y Probit -- El acceso a internet aún se encuentra reservado para una parte priv...

  14. Effectiveness of the Costa Rican Central Bank forex intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio César Espinoza Rodríguez

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents an empirical approach to assess the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions following the criteria by K. Domínguez (1998 using a GARCH model based on the work by C. Broto (2012. Analyses are conducted to evaluate the FOREX rules of intervention followed by the BCCR, and the probability of occurrence of an intervention is estimated using a LOGIT model.  In addition, the paper attempts to analyze what happened to the exchange arrangements applied in Costa Rica as a result of the 2006 exchange rate flexibility and transition to inflation targets.

  15. Early Warning Systems, the Case of Turkey = Erken Uyarı Sistemleri, Türkiye Uygulaması

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinan AKTAN

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We are focusing on two alternative techniques that can be used empirically to select predictors for failure prediction purposes. The selected techniques have all different assumptions about the relationships between the independent variables. Linear discriminant analysis is based on linear combination of independent variables; logit analysis uses logistic cumulative probability distribution function. Our aim is to study if these essential differences between methods affect the empirical selection of independent variables to the models and lead significant differences in failure prediction accuracy; moreover, develop a prediction model that would be benefited by management itself, shareholders, government, vendors, creditors, investors and other stakeholders in their projections and strategies.

  16. La influencia de la densidad competitiva en el resultado de los equipos en el fútbol de alto nivel. (The influence of a congested football calendar on the results obtained by teams in professional soccer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Lago Ballesteros

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Resumen Existe una considerable variación en el número de partidos disputados por los equipos de fútbol durante una temporada. Los mejores equipos juegan varios partidos a la semana tanto en las competiciones domesticas como en la Liga de Campeones. Se ha especulado que un período cargado de partidos puede limitar el rendimiento de los conjuntos. En este trabajo se estudia el efecto que tiene para un equipo disputar un partido de la Liga de Campeones sobre el resultado alcanzado en el encuentro de la Liga Española en el fin de semana anterior. La muestra consiste en 374 partidos de la Liga Española jugados por los equipos que se encontraban simultáneamente disputando la Liga de Campeones entre las temporadas 2003-2004 y 2006- 2007. Los resultados alcanzados mediante un modelo logit multinomial permiten demostrar que disputar un partido de la Liga de Campeones no reduce la probabilidad de ganar en el partido de la Liga Española. Además se ha verificado que la probabilidad de ganar en el partido del fin de semana de la Liga Española es mayor cuando el partido de la Liga de Campeones a disputar pertenece a la fase de liguilla respecto a si se corresponde con el formato de eliminación directa.Palabras clave: fútbol; liga española; liga de campeones; logit multinomial; densidad competitive. Abstract There is a considerable variation in the number of matches played per season by clubs in the Spanish Soccer. The successful top clubs play several matches a week in domestic leagues as well as in the UEFA Champions League. It has been speculated that a period full of matches can lead to player fatigue which may result in underperformance. Using data from 374 matches of the Spanish Soccer League played from the 2003-04 to the 2006-07 seasons and according to the estimation based on logit multinomial this study shows that Spanish Champions League teams did not perform below their normal standard at the weekend when they played a Champions

  17. Desempenho Acadêmico e a Teoria do Prospecto: Estudo Empírico sobre o Comportamento Decisório

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Fonseca Genelhu Soares

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to identify the existence of a statistical relationship between rational choice and academic performance of undergraduate university students, based on Grinblatt, Keloharju and Linnainmaa (2011. With the use of questionnaires to collect data and logit regressions, the results show that Academic Performance (AP has a direct relationship with the rationality of choices and alters cognitive biases in decision making. In this sense, students with higher AP made more rational choices than students with lower AP, which means a lower susceptibility to cognitive biases.

  18. A Passenger Travel Demand Model for Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; Jovicic, Goran

    2003-01-01

    The passenger travel model for Copenhagen is a state-of-practice nested logit model in which the sub-models - i.e. generation, distribution and mode choice models - are connected via measure of accessibility. The model includes in its structure a large set of explanatory variables at all three...... aims to provide a detailed description of the model, which can be used as a guide to the future development of similar models. Also, an application of the model in a study of road pricing in denmark is described. This gives the reader an idea of how such a policy measure can be modelled as well...

  19. Caracterización socioeconómica y ambiental de la producción de café orgánico en el Perú

    OpenAIRE

    TUDELA MAMANI, JUAN WALTER; UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DEL ALTIPLANO

    2015-01-01

    El presente estudio identifica los elementos que hacen que un productor de café en el Perú, produzca de forma orgánica. Así a través de modelos logit y probit se identifican los determinantes sociales, económicos y ambientales. Se utiliza información del IV Censo Nacional Agropecuario – 2012. Los productores con mayor experiencia en el cultivo del café, los hombres, los más educados, los que participan en asociaciones, comités o cooperativas, los que tienen mayor superficie sembrada de café, ...

  20. Impact of socioeconomic characteristics on attitudes toward food irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinson, R.A.; Harrison, R.W.; Andrews, L.

    1998-01-01

    Irradiation of food products is one of several techniques that reduce the risk of food-borne illness. Despite its advantages, the technique has been used sparingly because consumers are wary about this technology. A logit model is used to evaluate the impacts of demographic factors on attitudes toward purchasing foods that have been irradiated and toward paying more for irradiated foods. An important finding of this study is that consumers who are familiar with irradiation are significantly more likely to buy and pay more for irradiated products than those who have never heard of irradiation. This implies that educational programs aimed at informing consumers about the benefits of irradiation can work

  1. A dynamic programming approach for quickly estimating large network-based MEV models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2017-01-01

    We propose a way to estimate a family of static Multivariate Extreme Value (MEV) models with large choice sets in short computational time. The resulting model is also straightforward and fast to use for prediction. Following Daly and Bierlaire (2006), the correlation structure is defined by a ro...... to converge (4.3 h on an Intel(R) 3.2 GHz machine using a non-parallelized code). We also show that our approach allows to estimate a cross-nested logit model of 111 nests with a real data set of more than 100,000 observations in 14 h....

  2. Parent-child communication and marijuana initiation: evidence using discrete-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonnemaker, James M; Silber-Ashley, Olivia; Farrelly, Matthew C; Dench, Daniel

    2012-12-01

    This study supplements existing literature on the relationship between parent-child communication and adolescent drug use by exploring whether parental and/or adolescent recall of specific drug-related conversations differentially impact youth's likelihood of initiating marijuana use. Using discrete-time survival analysis, we estimated the hazard of marijuana initiation using a logit model to obtain an estimate of the relative risk of initiation. Our results suggest that parent-child communication about drug use is either not protective (no effect) or - in the case of youth reports of communication - potentially harmful (leading to increased likelihood of marijuana initiation). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Factores de calidad del servicio en el transporte público de pasajeros: estudio de caso de la ciudad de Toluca, México

    OpenAIRE

    Óscar Sánchez-Flores

    2010-01-01

    En este artículo se identifican, ponderan y valoran los factores que intervienen en la percepción de la calidad de servicio del transporte público en un corredor urbano que se caracteriza por una gestión delegada con tarifa fija y competencia en calidad. Mediante un modelo logit con especificación lineal de la función de utilidad, se estiman los coeficientes de cada factor de calidad de servicio para diferentes segmentos y estratos de la población. Los resultados de la estimación econométrica...

  4. The entry mode choice of EU leading companies (1987-1997)

    OpenAIRE

    Giampaolo Vitali

    1999-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between industrial structure and M&A process. We focus on the determining factors fostering a firm to choose controlling acquisitions or non-controlling ones. We use the Acquisitions and Divestments Database (ADD), a data-base collecting equity operations made by top-90 EU leaders in the period 1987-1997. A logit analysis shows some variables that increase the probability that the firm’s entry mode choice is a non-contr...

  5. Determinants of perceived value and repurchase intentions in brazilian inbound tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glauber Eduardo de Oliveira Santos

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to measure the influence of Brazilian tourism product’s characteristics on the inbound tourist’s perceived value and the intention to return. An empirical study was carried out using a large database contents on international tourism behavior. The logit binomial model was used for estimation. As a result it was found that some of the most relevant characteristics of Brazilian tourism product are hospitality, accommodation, nightlife, public safety and tour guides. Among the least significant aspects are public transport, highways, communication system and tourist signage.

  6. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  7. A choice modelling analysis on the similarity between distribution utilities’ and industrial customers’ price and quality preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Söderberg, Magnus

    2008-01-01

    The Swedish Electricity Act states that electricity distribution must comply with both price and quality requirements. In order to maintain efficient regulation it is necessary to firstly, define quality attributes and secondly, determine a customer's priorities concerning price and quality...... to evaluate the same twelve choice situations in which price and four specific quality attributes are varied. The preferences expressed by the utilities, and estimated by a random parameter logit, correspond quite well with the preferences expressed by the largest industrial customers. The preferences...

  8. Stated environmental preferences in a Romanian rural community

    OpenAIRE

    Toma, Luiza; Mathijs, Erik

    2004-01-01

    This article uses random utility theory to analyse the economic and environmental trade-offs at farm level in a Romanian rural area confronting water pollution on the basis of survey data. To underline the impact of socio-economic variables in the decision-making process at farm level as regards environmental choices, a binary logit model is estimated that includes socio-economic variables in addition to the attributes in the choice set. The study shows that heterogeneity in tastes is partial...

  9. Evolutionary games combining two or three pair coordinations on a square lattice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király, Balázs; Szabó, György

    2017-10-01

    We study multiagent logit-rule-driven evolutionary games on a square lattice whose pair interactions are composed of a maximal number of nonoverlapping elementary coordination games describing Ising-type interactions between just two of the available strategies. Using Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the macroscopic noise-level-dependent behavior of the two- and three-pair games and the critical properties of the continuous phase transtitions these systems exhibit. The four-strategy game is shown to be equivalent to a system that consists of two independent and identical Ising models.

  10. Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 11, No. 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Brent (Editor); Kabashkin, Igor (Editor); Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar (Editor); EspiritoSanto, Jr. Respicio (Editor)

    2006-01-01

    The following topics were covered: How Do Airlines Perceive That Strategic Alliances Affect Their Individual Branding?; Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model; Consequences of Feeder Delays for the Success of A380 Operations; Inside the Mechanics of Network Development: How Competition and Strategy Reorganize European Air Traffic; The Opportunities and Threats of Turning Airports into Hubs; Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using System Safety Tools; A Simulation Based Approach for Contingency Planning for Aircraft Turnaround Activities in Airline Hubs; and The Council on Aviation Accreditation: Part One- Historical Foundation.

  11. National and international graduate migration flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosca, Irene; Wright, Robert E

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the nature of national and international graduate migration flows in the UK. Migration equations are estimated with microdata from a matched dataset of Students and Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education, information collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency. The probability of migrating is related to a set of observable characteristics using multinomial logit regression. The analysis suggests that migration is a selective process with graduates with certain characteristics having considerably higher probabilities of migrating, both to other regions of the UK and abroad.

  12. Paying taxes in Euro area countries: issues behind tax morale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilijus Rutkauskas

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates theoretical and practical aspects of tax morale in euro area countries. The attitude of households on tax payment – whether to pay taxes or not – is assessed quantitatively by employing dichotomous logit-probit regression analysis. Research is based on household level data received from World Values Survey and European Values Study. The results suggest that the main issues behind weak tax morale are corruption, disrespect to the country. Additionally tax morale is significantly affected by factors like age, gender, religiousness, gender, income and education. Article concludes on possible policy options in order to increase tax morale.

  13. Adoption of health information technologies by physicians for clinical practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villalba-Mora, Elena; Casas, Isabel; Lupiañez-Villanueva, Francisco

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: We investigated the level of adoption of Health Information Technologies (HIT) services, and the factors that influence this, amongst specialised and primary care physicians; in Andalusia, Spain. METHODS: We analysed the physicians' responses to an online survey. First, we performed...... Technologies: Electronic Health Records (EHR), ePrescription and patient management and telemedicine services. Results from an ordered logit model showed that the frequency of use of HIT is associated with the physicians' perceived usefulness. Lack of financing appeared as a common barrier to the adoption...

  14. A dynamic analysis of interfuel substitution for Swedish heating plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braennlund, R.; Lundgren, T.

    2000-01-01

    This paper estimates a dynamic model of interfuel substitution for Swedish heating plants. We use the cost share linear logit model developed by Considine and Mount. All estimated own-price elasticities are negative and all cross-price elasticities are positive. The estimated dynamic adjustment rate parameter is small, however increasing with the size of the plant and time, indicating fast adjustments in the fuel mix when changing relative fuel prices. The estimated model is used to illustrate the effects of two different policy changes

  15. Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors in Option-like Securities

    OpenAIRE

    Schmitz, Philipp; Weber, Martin

    2007-01-01

    We analyze the trading behavior of individual investors in option-like securities, namely bank-issued warrants, and thus expand the growing literature of investors behavior to a new kind of securities. A unique data set from a large German discount broker gives us the opportunity to analyze the trading behavior of 1,454 investors, making 89,958 transactions in 6,724 warrants on 397 underlyings. In different logit regression, we make use of the facts that investors can speculate on rising and ...

  16. CATDAT - A program for parametric and nonparametric categorical data analysis user's manual, Version 1.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, James R.; Haas, Timothy C.; Lee, Danny C.

    2000-01-01

    Natural resource professionals are increasingly required to develop rigorous statistical models that relate environmental data to categorical responses data. Recent advances in the statistical and computing sciences have led to the development of sophisticated methods for parametric and nonparametric analysis of data with categorical responses. The statistical software package CATDAT was designed to make some of these relatively new and powerful techniques available to scientists. The CATDAT statistical package includes 4 analytical techniques: generalized logit modeling; binary classification tree; extended K-nearest neighbor classification; and modular neural network

  17. Off-balance sheet exposures and banking crises in OECD countries

    OpenAIRE

    Barrell, R; Davis, P; Liadze, I; Karim, D

    2012-01-01

    Against the background of the acknowledged importance of off-balance-sheet exposures in the sub prime crisis, we seek to investigate whether this was a new phenomenon or common to earlier crises. Using a logit approach to predicting banking crises in 14 OECD countries we find a significant impact of a proxy for the ratio of banks‟ off-balance-sheet activity to total (off and on balance sheet) activity, as well as capital and liquidity ratios, the current account balance and GDP growth. These ...

  18. Determinants of Academic Startups’ Orientation toward International Business Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinya Suzuki

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the determinants of academic startups’ orientation toward international business expansion, focusing on their technological capabilities, availability of public support, the regional characteristics of their locations, and the research standards of their parent universities. Using unique survey data on 448 academic startups in Japan and by estimating an ordered logit model, we find that academic startups are strongly oriented toward expanding their businesses internationally if they have strong technological capabilities, receive public support, are established in regions with a high ratio of exporting small firms, or are affiliated with a parent university with an excellent research reputation.

  19. Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790-1900.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, J David

    2010-04-01

    This article constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, it suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900-02 rural and 1900-02 overall DRA life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex-and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends.

  20. Determinants of SME credit worthiness under Basel rules: the value of credit history information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Dainelli

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Basel III Accord has reportedly had an impact on SME financing. In this paper, we aim to highlight the determinants of SME credit worthiness. We use credit history in addition to financial ratios and “hybrid” indicators that have been built by mixing credit history with financial statement data. We develop a failure prediction logit model on 187 Italian SMEs. The use of short-term credit lines is the most important variable. Contrary to common understanding, capitalization levels do not affect ratings. Lastly, credit worthiness is sensitive to sale profitability.

  1. Estimating the impact of investment tax credits on aircraft demand

    OpenAIRE

    Mackay, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses exogenous price changes from the shifting tax policies of the 1980’s to identify the parameters of a nested-logit discrete choice model of the aircraft market. The federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) was a tax credit of 6-10% of a firm's new capital investment that was removed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86). Such tax credits continue to be proposed as tools to spur investment, and they are still utlized in many states and select industries. This research adds to the ...

  2. Estrutura do mercado de trabalho metropolitano na região sul do Brasil, em 1995 e em 2005

    OpenAIRE

    Sampaio,Armando Vaz

    2012-01-01

    Para melhor compreender as transições que ocorrem no mercado de trabalho, é importante considerar os fluxos de estar empregado, desempregado e fora do mercado de trabalho e as probabilidades envolvidas em função de variáveis socioeconômicas e geográficas. O modelo econométrico utilizado foi o multinomial logit, em que se observou que há diferença de gênero com respeito a estar ocupado e fora do mercado de trabalho, sendo que, para a primeira situação, a probabilidade é maior para o homem e, p...

  3. Classification and Casual Modeling of Economic Indicators of Instability in Developing Nations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-03-01

    given X, U = random variable normally distributed with a mean of zero and unit variance ( Hanushek and Jackson, 1977:189). The interpretation is the...of this expression yields Equation (3), the log odds or logit equation. P(1 + e - x O) = 1 e -XG = (1 - P)/P X 1 = ln[P/(l - P)] (3) ( Hanushek and...Jackson, 1977:188) Hanushek and Jackson prove that the change in probability of the event’s occurrence due to a change in a single independent variable

  4. The importance of job training to job satisfaction of older workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppel, Karen; Brucker, Eric; Cochran, Jeremy

    2012-01-01

    If job training has positive impacts on worker satisfaction, then job training can have desirable consequences for an organization that result both directly through its effects on productivity and indirectly through its effects on job satisfaction. Furthermore, the aging of the workforce implies that older workers will become increasingly important to firms and to the economy. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the relationship between job training and job satisfaction, focusing in particular on U.S. workers born in 1964 or earlier. The results of ordered logit regression analysis indicate that availability and quality of training received directly affect job satisfaction.

  5. How does youth cigarette use respond to weak economic periods? Implications for the current economic crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkes, Jeremy

    2012-03-01

    This paper examines whether youth cigarette use increases during weak economic periods (as do youth alcohol and drug use). The data come from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. With repeated measures over the 1997-2006 period, for almost 9,000 individuals, the samples include 30,000+ teenagers (15-19 years) and 30,000+ young adults (20-24 years). Logit models with state and year controls are estimated. The results indicate that teenagers and young adults increase cigarette use when the economy is weaker, implying that the current financial crisis has likely increased youth cigarette use relative to what it would have otherwise been.

  6. Evaluation of Statistical Methods for Modeling Historical Resource Production and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanzad, Bolorchimeg

    This master's thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed "cycle-jumping" wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The

  7. Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS)

    OpenAIRE

    Hillier, Amy; Smith, Tony E.; Whiteman, Eliza D.; Chrisinger, Benjamin W.

    2017-01-01

    Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and hous...

  8. Argentine Beef Demand and Household Choices of Retail Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Rossini

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Household choices of outlet retail channels in beef purchases depend on several characteristics related to the quality of the product, convenience and ease of purchase, and economic factors such as price, income and payment methods. The aim of this paper is to study the influence of demographic and socio-economic attributes in the choice made by argentine consumers using a Multinominal Logit Model. The results show that the total number of purchases, the type of household, payment methods, and gender and schooling years of household head are the most relevant variables in the sample.

  9. The Effect of Advertising and In-Store Promotion on the Demand for Chocolate

    OpenAIRE

    Jason C. Patalinghug

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effect of TV advertising and in-store displays on the sales of chocolates. I examine which method is more effective in gaining customers and in increasing total sales. Also, I look at the evidence to see whether the lack of advertising by a firm will hurt the industry as a whole. In this essay, I use a nested logit model on scanner data obtained by the Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy at the University of Connecticut's Department of Agricultural and Resource E...

  10. Development of a radioimmunoassay for papain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauch, P.; Fukal, L.; Marek, M.; Strejcek, F.; Kas, J.

    1984-01-01

    Various well-tried radioimmunoassay (RIA) techniques were compared for the quantitation of papain. The evaluation of individual assays was performed by logit-log analysis. The most compatible analytical steps were combined in order to obtain the optimal analytical conditions of the assay. The preferred RIA involves papain labelling with lactoperoxidase, a double antibody method as the separation step and a 24 h incubation period at 2 0 C. It permits the detection of 16 ng of papain per tube. In contrast, a method using immobilized antibody was satisfactory for rapid quantitation of papain with quite acceptable accuracy. (Auth.)

  11. Prostate alpha/beta revisited - an analysis of clinical results from 14 168 patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dasu, Alexandru [Dept. of Radiation Physics UHL, County Council of Oestergoetland, Linkoeping (Sweden); Radiation Physics, Dept. of Medical and Health Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Linkoeping Univ., Linkoeping (Sweden); Toma-Dasu, Iuliana [Medical Radiation Physics, Stockholm Univ. and Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2012-11-15

    Purpose. To determine the dose response parameters and the fractionation sensitivity of prostate tumours from clinical results of patients treated with external beam radiotherapy. Material and methods. The study was based on five-year biochemical results from 14 168 patients treated with external beam radiotherapy. Treatment data from 11 330 patients treated with conventional fractionation have been corrected for overall treatment time and fitted with a logit equation. The results have been used to determine the optimum {alpha}/{beta} values that minimise differences in predictions from 2838 patients treated with hypofractionated schedules. Results. Conventional fractionation data yielded logit dose response parameters for all risk groups and for all definitions of biochemical failures. The analysis of hypofractionation data led to very low {alpha}/{beta} values (1-1.7 Gy) in all mentioned cases. Neglecting the correction for overall treatment time has little impact on the derivation of {alpha}/{beta} values for prostate cancers. Conclusions. These results indicate that the high fractionation sensitivity is an intrinsic property of prostate carcinomas and they support the use of hypofractionation to increase the therapeutic gain for these tumours.

  12. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  13. Determinants of Agricultural Diversification in a Hotspot Area: Evidence from Colonist and Indigenous Communities in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve, Ecuadorian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolier Torres

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available With data from a household survey covering migrant settlers and indigenous (Kichwa communities in the Sumaco Biosphere Reserve (SBR, this study analyses the drivers of agricultural diversification/specialisation, focusing on the role of ethnicity and the livelihood strategies (LS they follow. Data were collected using the Poverty and Environment Network methodology of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR-PEN. In order to establish the drivers of agricultural diversification, the number of crops and the Shannon index of crops areas were used as the dependent variables in ordinary least square (OLS models, while a multinomial logit model (MLM was used to assess a household’s degree of diversification. The results of the OLS regression provides evidence supporting the notion that households, with Livestock-based and Wage-based livelihood strategies (LS are less diversified and more specialized than households with Crop-based LS. Ethnicity has a positive and significant effect on agricultural diversification, with Kichwa farms more diversified than those of their migrant colonist counterparts. The results of the multinomial logit model (MLM show that large Kichwa households, with Crop-based and Forest-based LS are more likely to adopt a highly diversified agricultural strategy. Based on these findings, we recommend a redirection of agricultural incentives, towards the adoption of diversified agricultural systems, as a strategy to promote more sustainable production systems in the Ecuadorian Amazon Region.

  14. Valuing attributes of enhanced traffic information: an experience in Kolkata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Basu

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Most of the traffic information considers a single item like travel time or delay. In the present work, enhanced traffic information displaying instantaneous travel time and its variation from the previous interval to the present, is considered. An initial investigation is made on the effectiveness of such traffic information on route choice behavior of trip makers by valuation of attributes of the traffic information. Taking a case study of two urban corridors in the Kolkata metro city, India, the valuation is done separately for private car and taxi trip makers. The stated preference (choice based data collected from trip makers are analyzed using both multinomial logit (MNL and mixed logit (ML modeling techniques. Assuming sparsely used constrained triangular distribution of random parameters, two different types of ML model are developed: one with independent choice sets and the other one by accounting heterogeneity around the mean of random parameter(s. Both family income and trip purpose are found to decompose heterogeneity around the mean estimate(s. The values of travel time and their variation presented in the paper encourage further investigation on such type of traffic information for management of congestion on alternative urban corridors both spatially and temporally.

  15. Modelo de demanda para un tren de pasajeros entre Tunja y Bogotá

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Gabriel Márquez

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo presenta los resultados de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas en un experimento de elección discreta, diseñado para examinar la demanda potencial de un nuevo sistema de transporte de pasajeros tipo tren entre Tunja y Bogotá. El estudio investiga acerca del comportamiento en la elección de tres modos de transporte: bus, tren y auto. Cada modo fue representado en términos del costo, tiempo de viaje e intervalo de tiempo entre despachos con un modelo logit mixto que incluye para los individuos la variable asiduidad. El modelo se utilizó para experimentar con distintos escenarios y se encontró para cada uno de ellos el reparto modal correspondiente. / This paper presents the results of stated-preference in a discrete choice experiments designed to examine the potential demand for a new type of passenger train between Tunja and Bogotá. The study investigates choice behaviour between three modes of transportation: bus, train and car. Each mode is represented in terms of cost, travel time and headway with a mixed logit model, which includes regularly for individuals. The model was used to experiment with different scenarios, finding the modal split for each.

  16. Community Forestry as Perceived by Local People Around Cross River National Park, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezebilo, Eugene E.

    2012-01-01

    The prior identification of local people's preferences for conservation-development projects will help gear nature-conservation strategies toward the needs of different groups of local people. This will help policy-makers in designing a more acceptable and effective conservation strategy. This article reports a study of local perceptions of a community forestry project that aims to help improve the design as well as local acceptance of the project. The data originated from personal interviews conducted in communities around Okwangwo Division of the Cross River National Park in southeast Nigeria and were analysed using ordered logit and binary logit models. The results showed that >50% of the respondents were satisfied with the community forestry project. The respondents' perceptions were mainly influenced by education, age, gender, and willingness to contribute money to tourism as well as the contributions of cocoa, banana, and afang ( Gnetum africanum) to the respondents' income. The results from this study have important implications for nature conservation in Nigeria and potentially other conservation contexts across the developing world.

  17. Why Did People Move During the Great Recession?: The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Brian L; Mouw, Ted; Daniel Perez, Anthony

    2017-04-01

    Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper, we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas and find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.

  18. Complementarity in dietary supplements and foods: are supplement users vegetable eaters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Hyoung-Goo; Joo, Hailey Hayeon; Choi, Kyong Duk; Lee, Dongmin; Moon, Junghoon

    2017-01-01

    Background : The consumption of fruits, vegetables, and dietary supplements correlate. Most previous studies have aimed to identify the determinants of supplement uses or the distinct features of supplement users; this literature lacks a discussion on dietary supplement consumption as a predictor of fruit and vegetable consumption. Objective : This study examines how dietary supplement consumption correlates with fruit and vegetable consumption by combining scanner data and surveys of Korean household grocery shopping. Methods : Propensity score matching (PSM) is used to identify the relationship between dietary supplement consumption and fruit and vegetable consumption in a household. A logit regression using supplement consumption as the dependent variable is used. Then, the supplement takers (the treatment group) are matched with non-takers (the control group) based on the propensity scores estimated in the logit regression. The fruit and vegetable consumption levels of the groups are then compared. Results : We found that dietary supplement use is associated with higher fruit and vegetable consumption. This supports the health consciousness hypothesis based on attention bias, availability heuristics, the focusing effect, and the consumption episode effect. It rejects the health substitute hypothesis based on economic substitutes and mental accounting. Conclusions : Future research on the health benefits of dietary supplements should address the complementary consumption of fruits/vegetables and their health benefits to avoid misstating the health effects of supplements.

  19. Evaluasi Manfaat Sekolah Lapang Pengendalian Hama Terpadu (SLPHT Perkebunan Kopi Rakyat dalam Meningkatkan Pendapatan Petani

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendiarto Hendiarto

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated pest management (IPM Farmers Field School (FFS on coffee crop had been conducted in East Java since 1998 until 2003. The IPM-FFS program aimed to increase productivity and quality of the coffee bean through the improvement of the crop and the environment. The aim of this paper was to 1 describe the benefit of the implementation of IPM practicing farmers. The tabulation descriptive method, the profit function and logit function analysis were used. Results showed that the application of IPM technology could increase the profit and the quality of the coffee bean and the price of coffee at farmer level obviously affected the farmer to adopt IPM and increase the income of the farming.   Sekolah Lapangan Pengendalian Hama Terpadu (SLPHT tanaman kopi telah dilaksanakan di provinsi Jawa Timur sejak tahun 1998 sampai 2003. Program SLPHT bertujuan untuk meningkatkan produktivitas dan kualitas biji kopi melalui perbaikan teknik budidaya tanaman dan perbaikan lingkungan. Tujuan tulisan ini adalah 1menjelaskan manfaat pelaksanaan teknologi PHT, dan 2 mengetahui faktor-faktor penentu yang mempengaruhi petani melaksanakan PHT. Untuk dapat menjawab tujuan dalam tulisan ini, digunakan metode deskriptif dan fungsi produksi dengan pendekatan fungsi keuntungan dan logit. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa: 1 penerapan teknologi PHT dapat meningkatkan keuntungan dan kualtas biji kopi; 2 harga kopi di tingkat petani secara nyata mempengaruhi petani untuk menerapkan PHT dan meningkatkan pendapatan usaha tani.

  20. Alcohol Use-Related Problems Among a Rural Indian Population of West Bengal: An Application of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, Anamitra; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Chowdhury, Abhijit

    2016-03-01

    To examine alcohol use and related problems among a rural subset of the Indian population. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used as part of Health and Demographic Surveillance of 36,611 individuals aged ≥18 years. From this survey data on 3671 current alcohol users were analysed using bivariate and multivariate ordered logit regression. Over 19% of males and 2.4% of females were current alcohol users. Mean ethanol consumption on a typical drinking day among males was estimated to be higher (96.3 gm) than females (56.5 gm). Mean AUDIT score was 11 among current alcohol users. AUDIT showed in the ordered logit regression estimated alcohol use-related problems to be low among women, Scheduled Tribes and unmarried people, whereas alcohol use-related problems registered high among Muslims. This rural population appears to be in need of an effective intervention program, perhaps targeting men and the household, aimed at reducing the level of alcohol use and related problems. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  1. Strategies of Market Development of for Healthy Food Products in Hamadan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    vahid Azizi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted at the aim of determining development strategies for marketing healthy food products. The study data was collected by conducting field survey and compeleting a questionnaire. Using simple random sampling, about 400 Hamedan citizens were selected in 2013. The data analysis was conducted by ordinal Logit model with method of maximum Likelihood. According to the results, 32 percent of people do not tend to shopping healthy food products, 34.3 percent of people ignored shopping of healthy food products, 33.8 percent of them tend to shopping of healthy food products. The results of estimating the ordinal Logit model presented that strategies such as cognition indicators, environment lover, Advertising and Information, Education, Supportive and monitoring facilities, structural and Service facilities and economic indicator should be considered as marketing strategies to develop healthy food products. In order to develop the healthy food market, the long term programs in the three sectors of products, consumption and marketing should be considered from specific purposes.

  2. Meta-analysis of published efficacy and safety data for docetaxel in second-line treatment of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroh, Mark; Green, Michelle; Cha, Edward; Zhang, Nancy; Wada, Russ; Jin, Jin

    2016-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the impact of dose and other prognostic factors on safety and efficacy of docetaxel in second-line non-small-cell lung cancer patients. A model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) of a published docetaxel monotherapy data in 6085 second-line non-small-cell lung cancer patients from 46 trials was conducted. The logit of grade 3/4 neutropenia incidence was a linear function of dose, with a 5% increase in the odds of neutropenia per mg/m(2) increase in dose [odds ratio (OR) 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.06], and a Japanese study effect (OR 17.1, 95% CI 6.05-48.4). The logit of overall response rate (ORR) was a linear function of cumulative dose (0.4% increase in the odds of response per mg/m(2) increase; OR 1.004, 95% CI 1.001-1.008) and median population age (OR 1.08 per year, 95% CI 1.02-1.15). A Japanese study effect was identified for overall survival (OS) in addition to prognostic factors identified by a previous meta-analysis. This current MBMA identified docetaxel dose-response relationships for both neutropenia and ORR, an effect of age on ORR, and Japanese study effects on both neutropenia and OS.

  3. Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Shiu, A.; Cheng, Y.S.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

    2014-01-01

    Hong Kong has almost perfect electricity reliability, the result of substantial investments ultimately financed by electricity consumers who may be willing to accept lower reliability in exchange for lower bills. But consumers with high outage costs are likely to reject the reliability reduction. Our ordered-logit regression analysis of the responses by 1876 households to a telephone survey conducted in June 2013 indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a statistically-significant preference for their existing service reliability and rate. Moreover, the average residential cost estimate for a 1-h outage is US$45 (HK$350), topping the estimates reported in 10 of the 11 studies published in the last 10 years. The policy implication is that absent additional compelling evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its service reliability. - Highlights: • Use a contingent valuation survey to obtain residential preferences for reliability. • Use an ordered logit analysis to estimate Hong Kong's residential outage costs. • Find high outage cost estimates that imply high reliability requirements. • Conclude that sans new evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its reliability

  4. Cooperation in Creating Innovation in Polish Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Light of Empirical Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zastempowski Maciej

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, sources of competitive advantage and economic development are sought in the sphere of innovation. They are at the centre of interest of representatives of the world of politics, science, and business. Moreover, they have been incorporated into governmental and international strategic development programmes. This article attempts to characterize and evaluate cooperation in creating innovation in small and medium-sized enterprises in Poland. Empirical research, a fragment of which is presented in this article, was conducted at the turn of March and April 2015 on a representative sample of Polish small and medium-sized enterprises. The subject of the analysis was business innovation expressed through the indicators of innovation and frequency of cooperation with different entities from the business environment to create new solutions, as well as forms of business innovation. The evaluation of the existing dependence was performed on the basis of the estimation results of the logit model. The objective of this study was to identify key factors related to cooperation and their impact on the innovativeness of Polish companies, using the tools of econometric analysis. The article presents a contemporary approach to managing innovative activity – open innovation, which is both widely reported and reflected in the results of research conducted. The logit model that was developed also indicates that companies that are open to cooperation with customers and academic institutions of the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN and are members of clusters are more likely to implement innovations of a radical nature.

  5. Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian L. Levy

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the Great Recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas; we find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the Great Recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.

  6. Incidencia del deterioro progresivo del arbolado urbano en el Valle de Aburrá, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hector Ivan Restrepo Orozco

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available El arbolado urbano de los municipios del Valle de Aburrá, Colombia, está evidenciando deterioro y muerte por estrés hídrico y térmico, contaminación atmosférica, urbanización y ataques de plagas y enfermedades. Se realizó un muestreo de 11 710 individuos de 25 especies de árboles y palmas en el área metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá, con el propósito de registrar síntomas de deterioro progresivo (DP como marchitez de ramas y secamiento descendente. Se estimó un modelo logit multifactorial que relaciona la incidencia del DP con características dasométricas de los individuos, el sitio de siembra y el número de afectaciones. Se encontraron 720 individuos con DP (incidencia de 6.1%. Los modelos logit tuvieron un ajuste satisfactorio a los datos y evidenciaron que existe una relación estadísticamente significativa entre la incidencia del deterioro de árboles y el diámetro del árbol, su ubicación (municipio, especie, sitio de siembra (zona verde, piso duro, alcorque y presencia de otras afectaciones.

  7. Satisfaction and responsiveness with health-care services in Qatar--evidence from a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Faleh Mohamed Hussain; Nikoloski, Zlatko; Reka, Husein

    2015-11-01

    Satisfaction and responsiveness with health care are some of the main outcome variables of a health system. Although health outcomes have been studied in countries with different levels of economic development, there is limited information on the health provision/satisfaction/responsiveness nexus in countries where rapid transitions from middle to high-income status have occurred. Using a 2012 survey conducted in Qatar (amongst both Qatari and non-Qatari respondents), we analysed satisfaction and responsiveness of health care. The sample consisted of 4083 respondents. We use logit analysis [as well as robustness checks involving ordered logit, ordered probit, ordinary least squares (OLS) and probit analysis] in order to estimate the determinants of satisfaction and responsiveness. Both, satisfaction and responsiveness rates were high. Gender, nationality and, to some extent, income and age were significant sociodemographic determinants of satisfaction, with non-Qataris and females, having higher levels of satisfaction. Cost, previous experience with the same health provider and provision of medical insurance for a particular health provider were the attributes significantly correlated with general satisfaction. The results are consistent when the analysis is applied to the correlates of responsiveness. Sociodemographic factors explain the satisfaction with quality of health care in the state of Qatar (both from the general population point of view and from the patient point of view). Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  8. The Influences of Health Insurance and Access to Information on Prostate Cancer Screening among Men in Dominican Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kangmennaang, J.; Luginaah, I.

    2016-01-01

    Although research demonstrates the public health burden of prostate cancer among men in the Caribbean, relatively little is known about the factors that underlie the low levels of testing for the disease among this population. Study Design. A cross-sectional study of prostate cancer testing behaviours among men aged 40-60 years in Dominican Republic using the Demographic and Health Survey (2013). Methods. We use hierarchical binary logit regression models and average treatment effects combined with propensity score matching to explore the determinants of prostate screening as well as the average effect of health insurance coverage on screening. The use of hierarchical binary logit regression enabled us to control for the effect of unobserved heterogeneity at the cluster level that may affect prostate cancer testing behaviours. Results. Screening varied significantly with health insurance coverage, knowledge of cholesterol level, education, and wealth. Insured men were more likely to test for prostate cancer (OR=1.65, P=0.01) compared to the uninsured. Conclusions. The expansion and restructuring of Dominican Republic universal health insurance scheme to ensure equity in access may improve health access that would potentially impact positively on prostate cancer screening among men.

  9. Valuing energy-saving measures in residential buildings. A choice experiment study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwak, So-Yoon; Kwak, Seung-Jun [Department of Economics, Korea University, 5-1 Anam-Dong, Seoul 136-701 (Korea); Yoo, Seung-Hoon [Department of International Area Studies, Hoseo University, 268 Anseo-Dong, Cheonan, Chungnam 330-713 (Korea)

    2010-01-15

    Air-conditioning and heating energy-saving measures can cut back the usage of energy. This paper attempts to apply a choice experiment in evaluating the consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) for air-conditioning and heating energy-saving measures in Korea's residential buildings. We consider the trade-offs between price and three attributes of energy-saving (window, facade, and ventilation) for selecting a preferred alternative and derive the marginal WTP (MWTP) estimate for each attribute. We also try to test irrelevant alternatives property for the estimation model holds and compare the estimation results of the multinomial logit (MNL) and the nested logit (NL) models. The NL model outperforms the MNL model. The NL model show that MWTPs for increasing the number of glasses and their variety, for increasing the thickness of facade for 1 mm, and for establishing a ventilation system are KRW 17,392 (USD 18.2), 1,112 (1.2), and 11,827 (12.4), respectively. Overall, the potential consumers have significant amount of WTP. (author)

  10. Construction of risk prediction model of type 2 diabetes mellitus based on logistic regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jian

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to construct multi factor prediction model for the individual risk of T2DM, and to explore new ideas for early warning, prevention and personalized health services for T2DM. Methods: using logistic regression techniques to screen the risk factors for T2DM and construct the risk prediction model of T2DM. Results: Male’s risk prediction model logistic regression equation: logit(P=BMI × 0.735+ vegetables × (−0.671 + age × 0.838+ diastolic pressure × 0.296+ physical activity× (−2.287 + sleep ×(−0.009 +smoking ×0.214; Female’s risk prediction model logistic regression equation: logit(P=BMI ×1.979+ vegetables× (−0.292 + age × 1.355+ diastolic pressure× 0.522+ physical activity × (−2.287 + sleep × (−0.010.The area under the ROC curve of male was 0.83, the sensitivity was 0.72, the specificity was 0.86, the area under the ROC curve of female was 0.84, the sensitivity was 0.75, the specificity was 0.90. Conclusion: This study model data is from a compared study of nested case, the risk prediction model has been established by using the more mature logistic regression techniques, and the model is higher predictive sensitivity, specificity and stability.

  11. Influence of Parking Price on Parking Garage Users’ Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Simićević

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Parking charge is a powerful tool for solving parking and traffic congestion problems. In order to achieve the expected effects without any adverse impact it is necessary to understand well the users’ responses to this policy. This paper, based on a sample of interviewed parking garage users, has developed binary logit model for identification and quantification of characteristics of users and trips, on which the acceptance of parking price is dependent. In addition, multinomial logit model has been made in order to predict what the users will opt for when faced with an increase in parking price. For the first time the parameter “shorten duration” has been introduced which has shown to be the most significant in making behaviour-related decisions. The results show that the users with the purpose work are the most sensitive to an increase in parking charge, what can be deemed positive for policy makers. However, great sensitivity of the users with the purpose shopping should cause their concern. The results of the multinomial model show that they would not discontinue coming into the area after all.

  12. [Acceptance of yoghurt with different functional ingredients among consumers in supermarkets in southern Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnettler, Berta; Shene, Carolina; Rubilar, Mónica; Miranda, Horacio; Sepúlveda, José; Denegri, Marianela; Lobos, Germán

    2010-12-01

    In view of the interest in the role of foodstuffs in improving wellbeing and health, the object of this study is to distinguish consumer typologies in Temuco, La Araucanía Region, Chile, according to their preferences for different functional ingredients, flavouring, colouring and price in yoghurt. A semi-structured survey was applied to 400 supermarket customers. The respondents ordered eight alternative yoghurts according to their preferences, with different functional ingredients (fibre, antioxidants), flavourings (sugar, sweetener), colouring (natural, artificial) and three price options, for a conjoint analysis with fractional factorial design. Variables affecting knowledge of "functional food" were evaluated using a binomial logit model. It was determined by conjoint analysis that in general a preference existed for yoghurt containing fibre, sweetener, natural colouring, and at the lowest price. Three typologies were distinguished by analysis of hierarchical conglomerates: the majority segment (48.8%) displayed a greater preference for fibre; the second (41.7%) also preferred fibre, but gave first priority to artificial colouring and preferred a higher price. The minority (9.5%) was the only segment to prefer antioxidants. The typologies differed significantly in satisfaction with their food-related life, knowledge of the function of fibre and presence of cancer and obesity in some member of the respondent's family. The binomial logit model was significant (P acceptance of yoghurt enriched with fibre and with added sweetener.

  13. The role of biomass in US industrial interfuel substitution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Clifton T.

    2014-01-01

    The role of biomass in US industrial interfuel substitution in the industrial sector has typically been analyzed using data for the four traditional fuels of coal, oil, electricity and natural gas. However, the use of biomass as an industrial fuel in the US has grown, and now exceeds that of coal. Using data from 1960 to 2011, interfuel substitution in the US industrial sector is modeled with a dynamic linear logit model which includes biomass alongside the other four traditional fuels. Adding biomass to the model reduces somewhat the estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities for the other four fuels, while revealing that biomass and natural gas are substitute fuels. This implies that previous studies excluding biomass may have overestimated the potential for interfuel substitution, giving policy makers an inaccurate impression of the ability of carbon taxes or other environmental regulation to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. - Highlights: • Biomass usage by the US industrial sector now exceeds coal usage. • Previous interfuel substitution studies have not included biomass as a fuel. • Linear logit model is used to examine role of biomass in interfuel substitution. • Including biomass in the model lowers estimated price elasticities for traditional fuels. • Biomass is found to be a substitute for natural gas for industrial users

  14. Optional contributions have positive effects for volunteering public goods games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qi-Qing; Li, Zhen-Peng; Fu, Chang-He; Wang, Lai-Sheng

    2011-11-01

    Public goods (PG) games with the volunteering mechanism are referred to as volunteering public goods (VPG) games, in which loners are introduced to the PG games, and a loner obtains a constant payoff but not participating the game. Considering that small contributions may have positive effects to encourage more players with bounded rationality to contribute, this paper introduces optional contributions (high value or low value) to these typical VPG games-a cooperator can contribute a high or low payoff to the public pools. With the low contribution, the logit dynamics show that cooperation can be promoted in a well mixed population comparing to the typical VPG games, furthermore, as the multiplication factor is greater than a threshold, the average payoff of the population is also enhanced. In spatial VPG games, we introduce a new adjusting mechanism that is an approximation to best response. Some results in agreement with the prediction of the logit dynamics are found. These simulation results reveal that for VPG games the option of low contributions may be a better method to stimulate the growth of cooperation frequency and the average payoff of the population.

  15. Testando a hipótese de ciclos eleitorais racionais nas eleições dos municípios paulistas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste artigo é, seguindo o raciocínio presente em Rogoff & Sibert (1988 e em Rogoff (1990, procurar evidências de ciclos orçamentários racionais nos municípios paulistas, entre os anos de 1989 a 2001, por meio de econometria de dados em painel e de modelos de variável dependente binária (probit e logit. Os resultados apresentam evidências de impulsos positivos em anos eleitorais na despesa orçamentária das unidades selecionadas, e embora o resultado obtido para 2000 seja diferente dos obtidos para 1992 e 1996, em ne-nhum dos casos são obtidas evidências de racionalidade dos eleitores, nos moldes previstos pela teoria dos ciclos eleitorais racionais.The purpose of this paper is, considering the theoretical approach proposed by Rogoff & Si-bert (1988 and Rogoff (1990, to attempt to find out evidences of rational budget cycles in São Paulo state municipalities, between 1989 and 2001, by using panel data and binary dependent variable (probit and logit econometric models. Evidences of positive expenditure impulses in electoral years were found for those unities and, although the results for 2000 are different from the results obtained for 1992 and 1996, there is no acceptance of the hypothesis of voters' rationality in the way predicted by the rational opportunistic cycle theory.

  16. Willingness to Pay Additional Water Rate and Irrigation Knowledge of Farmers in Dinar Karakuyu Irrigation Areas in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mevlüt Gül

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Water which has become commodity product which is an important product today. Turkey is not a water rich country. In this study, agricultural enterprises in the field of Irrigation Project in Dinar Karakuyu which was implemented in 1992 by DSI. The study analysed which factors affect the willingness to pay additional irrigation water rate with the help of logit model and the irrigation knowledge of farmers was determined by Likert scale. Dinar Karakuyu irrigation network has begun to lose the function in the region. It was supposed 100% irrigation rate but decreased by approximately 9% today. In this context, DSI (General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works plans to rehabilitation work in the same area. The main material of this study was data obtained from 67 agricultural enterprises through a survey covered by the Irrigation Rehabilitation Project in the province of Afyonkarahisar Karakuyu Dinar. The data was gathered with the help of questionnaires which were answered by farmers in Karakuyu Dinar region. The results indicated that 74.6% of farmers were willingness to pay additional water charge. The data were statistically analysed with the use of the logit model. The model results show that agricultural income, farmers’ educational level, computer ownership, attendance of agricultural training activities, family size and agricultural experience were positive factors affect farmers’ willingness to pay additional water fee.

  17. Determinants of Food Security Status of Maize-Based Farming Households in Southern Guinea Savannah Area of Oyo State, Nigeria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwayemisi Abidemi Onasanya

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Nigeria is one of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa with insufficient food and high food import bill, which have debilitating effects on the productive capacity of the citizens. Maize is the most important cereal after rice and its production contributes immensely to food availability on the tables of many Nigerians. This study examined the contribution of maize production to household food security status of rural maize-farming households in the southern guinea savannah of Oyo state, Nigeria. A multistage sampling procedure was used to select 200 farm households and the data were analysed using descriptive statistics, recommended daily calorie requirement (RDCR approach, Logit model. Results showed that about three-quarters of the households were food secure and were able to meet the recommended calorie intake of 2260Kcal per capita per day. The shortfall index (P which measures the extent of deviation from the food security line, indicated that the food secure households exceeded the RDCR by 65%, while the food insecure households fell short of the RDCR by 31%. The logit model showed that maize output, gender, primary occupation of the farmer, farm size and farming experience had a positive influence on food security status while age had a negative influence on the food security status of maize-based farming households in the Southern Guinea Savannah of Oyo State, Nigeria. This suggests need for specific support to improve maize production

  18. Is it possible to develop a cross-country test of social interaction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Brett; Atler, Karen; Fisher, Anne G

    2017-11-01

    The Evaluation of Social Interaction (ESI) is used in Asia, Australia, North America and Europe. What is considered to be appropriate social interaction, however, differs amongst countries. If social interaction varies, the relative difficulty of the ESI items and types of social exchange also could vary, resulting in differential item functioning (DIF) and test bias in the form of differential test functioning (DTF). Yet, because the ESI scoring criteria are designed to account for culture, the ESI should be free of DIF and DTF. The purpose, therefore, was to determine whether the ESI demonstrates DIF or DTF related to country. A retrospective, descriptive, cross-sectional study of 9811 participants 2-102 years, 55% female, from 12 countries was conducted using many-facet Rasch analyses. DIF analyses compared paired item and social exchange type values by country against a critical effect size (±0.55 logit). DTF analyses compared paired ESI measures by country to 95% confidence intervals. All paired social exchange types and 98.3% of paired items differed by less than ±0.55 logit. All persons fell within 95% confidence intervals. Minimal DIF resulted in no test bias, supporting the cross-country validity of the ESI.

  19. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  20. A general description of additive and nonadditive elements of sperm competitiveness and their relation to male fertilization success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engqvist, Leif

    2013-05-01

    A complete understanding of male reproductive success, and thus sexual selection, often requires an insight into male success in sperm competition. Genuine conclusions on male sperm competitiveness can only be made in real competitive situations. However, statistical analyses of sperm competitiveness from fertilization success data have been shown to be problematic. Here, I first outline a comprehensive general description of the different additive and nonadditive elements relevant for the outcome of sperm competition staged between two males. Based on this description, I will highlight two main problems that are frequently encountered in experiments aiming at estimating sperm competitiveness. First, I focus on potential problems when using standardized competitors versus random mating trials, because trials with standardized competitors do not allow generalization if male-male interactions are important. Second, I illustrate the necessity to analyze data on the logit scale rather than on raw proportions, because only the logit scale allows a clean separation of additive and nonadditive effects (i.e., male × male and female × male interactions). © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution © 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  1. The associations between self-reported sleep duration and adolescent health outcomes: what is the role of time spent on Internet use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, Young Kyung; Shin, Eunhae; Bautista, Mary Ann; Foo, Kelvin

    2013-02-01

    This study aimed to examine the associations of self-reported sleep duration with adolescent health outcomes, taking into account time spent on Internet use. We used data from the 2008-2009 Korea Youth Behavioral Risk Factor Survey, a cross-sectional online survey of middle and high school students aged 13-18years in South Korea (N=136,589) to examine the associations of self-reported sleep duration with four mental and physical health measures, e.g. self-report of depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, weight status, and self-rated health. The binary logit and generalized ordered logit models controlled for time spent on Internet use for non-study purposes and other factors. Shorter self-reported sleep duration was associated with a higher likelihood of reporting depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, and overweight or obese status, and a lower likelihood of reporting better self-rated health, even after accounting for time spent on Internet use. Excessive Internet use was found to be an independent risk factor for these outcomes. Among in-school adolescents in South Korea, shorter sleep duration and excessive Internet use are independently and additively associated with multiple indicators of adverse health status. Excessive Internet use may have not only direct adverse health consequences, but also have indirect negative effects through sleep deprivation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Tras los rastros de la movilización social y la confianza pública: apuntes sobre capital social y desarrollo en el departamento del Cauca After Traces of Social Mobilization and Public Trust: Notes on Social Capital and Development in the Department of Cauca

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Cortés Landázur

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available El presente artículo busca en la actividad movilizatoria post reformas institucionales de la década del 90, rastros de capital social en el Departamento del Cauca. Se establece una relación entre dicha actividad movilizatoria y la estructura de las organizaciones de la sociedad civil del Cauca, a través de un modelo econométrico (logit bivariado, que pretende mostrar los principales determinantes del capital social interno y externo, impulsores del desarrollo regional.The present article looks within the mobilizing activity of post institutional reforms of the decade of the 90’s, for the characteristics of social capital in the Department of Cauca. It looks to establish a relationship between this mobilizing activity, and the structures of Cauca’s civil society organizations, through an econometric model (logit bivariate, that seeks to show the main determinants of internal and external social capital, which are motors of regional development.

  3. A simple unifying procedure for radioimmunoassay of thyroxine, triiodothyronine and reverse triiodothyronine in unextracted serum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slebodzinski, A.B.; Nowak, G.; Zamyslowska, H.

    1980-01-01

    A simple unifying procedure for radioimmunoassay (RIA) of thyroxine, T 4 , triiodothyronine, T 3 , and reverse-triiodothyronine, rT 3 , in unextracted serum has been developed. In the method 8-anilino-naphthalene sulfonic acid, sodium salicylate and barbital were used as inhibitors of iodothyronine binding to proteins of serum and charcoal for separation of antibody-bound and free hormone fractions. For statistical evaluation and quality control of the results the assay data were analyzed after logit/log transformation. In this way, a reasonable linearization of the standard curve was achieved. The lower limit of detection of T 4 was 35 pg and for triiodothyronine (T 3 plus rT 3 ) 7.5 pg. The intraassay variability averaged from 5-7%. Corresponding betweenassay coefficient of variation was from 11-13%. The recovery of added hormone to the hormone-free serum was near 100%, and the index of precision (lambda) below 0.1. The useable range of hormone determination was found to be from 0.5 μg to 15 μg T 4 and from 15 to 200 ng T 3 or rT 3 per dl serum. Using this unifying procedure one person can perform about 120 determinations per day. After logit/log transformation of the input data and linearization of the standard curve, the statistical analysis and data processing can be easily performed by a suitable RIA programme for a top desk calculator. (author)

  4. EFFECT OF WAGES ON MULTIPLE JOB HOLDING DECISIONS IN INDONESIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE INDONESIAN FAMILY LIFE SURVEY (IFLS DATA OF 2007 AND 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niken Dwi Wijayanti

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple job holding - i.e., a phenomenon in which workers have more than one job has become a trend in developed countries and is beginning to occur in developing countries, such as Indonesia. Existing studies provide the evidence that wages are a significant and consistent criterion to determine multiple job decisions. Wage increases in the primary job will decrease the incentive to have a second job as the reservation wage increases. However, we do not find any study which links the current multiple job decision with the past multiple job status. In this study, we use data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS in 2007 and 2014 to investigate whether or not a wage increase in the primary job reduces the incentive to have a second job in 2014, controlling for the multiple job status in 2007. Using logit and multinomial logit estimations, we find that the wage increase in the primary job decreases the probability of having a second job in 2014.

  5. Modeling route choice criteria from home to major streets: A discrete choice approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Osiris Vidana-Bencomo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A discrete choice model that consists of three sub-models was developed to investigates the route choice criteria of drivers who travel from their homes in the morning to the access point along the major streets that bound the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs. The first sub-model is a Nested Logit Model (NLM that estimates the probability of a driver has or has no multiple routes, and if the driver has multiple routes, the route selection criteria are based on the access point’s intersection control type or other factors. The second sub-model is a Mixed Logit (MXL model. It estimates the probabilities of the type of intersection control preferred by a driver. The third sub-model is a NLM that estimates the probabilities of a driver selecting his/her route for its shortest travel time or to avoid pedestrian, and if the aim is to take the fastest route, the decision criteria is based on the shortest distance or minimum stops and turns. Data gathered in a questionnaire survey were used to estimate the sub-models. The attributes of the utility functions of the sub-models are the driver’s demographic and trip characteristics. The model provides a means for transportation planners to distribute the total number of home-based trips generated within a TAZ to the access points along the major streets that bound the TAZ.

  6. Factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation to climate change in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a great threat to human security through erratic rainfall patterns and decreasing crop yields, contributing to increased hunger. The perceptions of the indigenous people about climate change and their responses to climate change have significant roles to play in addressing climate change. Therefore a critical study on farmers’ choices of adaptation to is critical for ensuring food security poverty alleviation. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 156 households in Ekiti state while descriptive statistics and multinomial logit were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results showed that the most widely used adaptation method by the farmers were soil and water conservation measures (67 percent. The multinomial logit analysis revealed that the factors explaining farmer’s choices of climate change adaptation include age of the farmers, gender of the household head, years of education, years of farming experience, household size, farmers information on climate change, farmers access to credit, farm income, non-farm income, livestock ownership and extension contact.

  7. Energy efficiency barriers in commercial and industrial firms in Ukraine: An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hochman, Gal; Timilsina, Govinda R.

    2017-01-01

    Improvement in energy efficiency is one of the main options to reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. However, large-scale deployment of energy-efficient technologies is constrained by several factors. Employing a survey of 509 industrial and commercial firms throughout Ukraine and a generalized ordered logit model, we quantified the economic, behavioral, and institutional barriers that may impede the deployment of energy-efficient technologies. Our analysis shows that behavioral barriers resulted from lack of information, knowledge, and awareness are major impediments to the adoption of energy-efficient technologies in Ukraine, and that financial barriers may further impede investments in these technologies especially for small firms. This suggests that carefully targeted information provisions and energy audits will enhance Ukrainian firms' investments in energy-efficient technologies to save energy consumption, improve productivity, and reduce carbon emissions from the productive sectors. - Highlights: • Employing a survey of 509 industrial and commercial firms throughout Ukraine • A generalized ordered logit model is used in the analysis. • The paper quantifies the economic, behavioral, and institutional barriers to energy-efficient technologies. • Behavioral barriers are major impediments to the adoption of energy-efficient technologies. • Financial barriers may further impede investments in these technologies especially for small firms.

  8. Adult Sex Identification Using Three-Dimensional Computed Tomography (3D-CT of the Pelvis: A Study Among a Sample of the Egyptian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enas M. A. Mostafa

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Sex identification of unknown human skeletal remains is of great importance in establishing identity and individuality. In adults, the hip bone is the most reliable sex indicator because of its sexual dimorphism. Each population should have its own specific standards of identification. The objective of this study is to develop a logistic regression formula for adult sex identification using threedimensional computed tomography (3D-CT of the pelvis and to perform an assessment of its validity in sex determination among a sample of the Egyptian population in the Suez Canal region. 141 pelvic-abdominal CT images (free of any pelvic orthopaedic disorder were included; they were reconstructed to produce 3D-CT pelvic images which were divided into a calibration group (47 male and 47 female and a test group (47 CT images the sex of which was unknown to the observers. Twenty radiometric variables were measured for the calibration group. A logit response formula for sex prediction was developed and applied on the test group for sex prediction. The logit response formula for the test sample showed sensitivity, specificity, and an overall accuracy of 100%. The proposed method represents a quick and reliable metric method in establishing sex from a CT image of the pelvis bone.

  9. Renewable energy adoption in an ageing population: Heterogeneity in preferences for micro-generation technology adoption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, Ken, E-mail: Ken.Willis@ncl.ac.uk [School of Architecture, Planning and Landscape, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU (United Kingdom); Scarpa, Riccardo [Department of Economics, Waikato School of Management, University of Waikato, Hamilton (New Zealand); Gilroy, Rose; Hamza, Neveen [School of Architecture, Planning and Landscape, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    Many countries are endeavouring to supply more of their energy from renewable resources. Such countries are also experiencing an aging population with a greater proportion of people aged {>=}65 years. This demographic shift may reduce the uptake of renewable energy, if older person households are less inclined to accept change and adopt new technologies. This paper assesses whether such households have different behavioural responses to energy efficiency compared to the rest of society and investigates whether micro-generation renewable energy technologies are less likely to be adopted by these households. It uses conditional logit and mixed logit models to investigate the impact of age of household on primary heating adoption, and also to assess the impact of older households on the installation of discretionary micro-generation technologies (solar thermal, solar voltaic, and wind power) to supplement existing heating and lighting systems. Results indicate that primary heating choice is not affected but that older person households are less inclined to adopt micro-generation technologies. - Highlights: > Heterogeneity exists in decisions on micro-generation technology installation. > Older person households are less inclined to adopt micro-generation technologies. > Micro-generation technologies fail a social cost-benefit analysis test.

  10. Occupational segregation, selection effects and gender wage differences: evidence from urban Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jairo Guillermo Isaza Castro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the effects of occupational segregation on the gender wage gap in urban Colombia between 1986 and 2000. The empirical methodology involves a two step procedure where by the occupational distributions ofworkers by gender aremodelled using a multinomial logit model in the first stage. In the second stage, the multinomial logit estimates are used not only to derive a counterfactual occupational distribution of women in the absence of workplace discrimination but also to correct for selectivity bias in thewage equations for each occupational category using the procedure suggested by Lee (1983. Besides the explained and unexplained components in conventional decompositions of the gender wage gap, this methodology differentiates between the justified and unjustified effects of the gender allocation ofworkers across occupational categories. The results for urban Colombia indicate that controlling for selectivity bias at the occupational category level is found to be relevant in all years reviewed in this study. They also suggest that a changing composition of the female labour supply in terms of un observables (i.e., ability and motivation is playing a role in the dramatic reduction of the observed wage gap.

  11. The arcsine is asinine: the analysis of proportions in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warton, David I; Hui, Francis K C

    2011-01-01

    The arcsine square root transformation has long been standard procedure when analyzing proportional data in ecology, with applications in data sets containing binomial and non-binomial response variables. Here, we argue that the arcsine transform should not be used in either circumstance. For binomial data, logistic regression has greater interpretability and higher power than analyses of transformed data. However, it is important to check the data for additional unexplained variation, i.e., overdispersion, and to account for it via the inclusion of random effects in the model if found. For non-binomial data, the arcsine transform is undesirable on the grounds of interpretability, and because it can produce nonsensical predictions. The logit transformation is proposed as an alternative approach to address these issues. Examples are presented in both cases to illustrate these advantages, comparing various methods of analyzing proportions including untransformed, arcsine- and logit-transformed linear models and logistic regression (with or without random effects). Simulations demonstrate that logistic regression usually provides a gain in power over other methods.

  12. Renewable energy adoption in an ageing population: Heterogeneity in preferences for micro-generation technology adoption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, Ken; Scarpa, Riccardo; Gilroy, Rose; Hamza, Neveen

    2011-01-01

    Many countries are endeavouring to supply more of their energy from renewable resources. Such countries are also experiencing an aging population with a greater proportion of people aged ≥65 years. This demographic shift may reduce the uptake of renewable energy, if older person households are less inclined to accept change and adopt new technologies. This paper assesses whether such households have different behavioural responses to energy efficiency compared to the rest of society and investigates whether micro-generation renewable energy technologies are less likely to be adopted by these households. It uses conditional logit and mixed logit models to investigate the impact of age of household on primary heating adoption, and also to assess the impact of older households on the installation of discretionary micro-generation technologies (solar thermal, solar voltaic, and wind power) to supplement existing heating and lighting systems. Results indicate that primary heating choice is not affected but that older person households are less inclined to adopt micro-generation technologies. - Highlights: → Heterogeneity exists in decisions on micro-generation technology installation. → Older person households are less inclined to adopt micro-generation technologies. → Micro-generation technologies fail a social cost-benefit analysis test.

  13. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  14. Effect of Policy Interventions on Food Security in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne van der Veen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Following the design of a conservation-based agricultural development strategy and food security strategy, the Tigray government has implemented different pro-poor development programs over the past years to address the problems of food security. This study attempts to investigate the effectiveness of government policy interventions at different scales addressed to improve food security. Food security both at the regional and district level was investigated by deriving food balance sheets for the period 2000-2008. An empirical analysis based on a logit model was also employed to analyze household level food security status. The results of the logit model reveal that government policy interventions such as water harvesting schemes, employment generation schemes, and promotion of technology adoption significantly contribute to a higher likelihood of household food security status. The findings of the food balance sheet also indicate that the region has made some impressive development gains in improving regional food self-sufficiency, indicating the importance of government interventions in improving food security both at the household and regional level.

  15. Human capital accumulation and its effect on agribusiness performance: the case of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udimal, Thomas Bilaliib; Jincai, Zhuang; Ayamba, Emmanuel Caesar; Sarpong, Patrick Boateng

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the effect of accumulated human capital on the performance of agribusinesses in China. Four hundred fifty agribusiness owners were interviewed for the study. Growth in sales over the last 5 years was used as a measure of performance. The following variables were reviewed and captured as those constituting human capital: education, raised in the area, parents being entrepreneurs, attending business seminars/trade fairs, managerial experience, similar work experience, cooperative membership, and training. Logit regression model and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. The logit regression model was used to analyze the effect of accumulated human capital on growth in sales. The inferential statistics on the other hand was used to measure the association between age, education, sex, provinces, and the categories of growth. Our study found that parents who are entrepreneurs and attend business seminars/trade fairs, as well as have managerial experience, similar work experience, education, and training, display a statistically significant positive effect on the growth in sales.

  16. Impact of socioeconomic status and medical conditions on health and healthcare utilization among aging Ghanaians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, Bashiru Ii; Xicang, Zhao; Yawson, Alfred Edwin; Nguah, Samuel Blay; Nsowah-Nuamah, Nicholas N N

    2015-03-20

    This study attempts to examine the impact of socioeconomic and medical conditions in health and healthcare utilization among older adults in Ghana. Five separate models with varying input variables were estimated for each response variable. Data (Wave 1 data) were drawn from the World Health Organization Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted during 2007-2008 and included a total of 4770 respondents aged 50+ and 803 aged 18-49 in Ghana. Ordered logits was estimated for self-rated health, and binary logits for functional limitation and healthcare utilization. Our results show that the study provides enough grounds for further research on the interplay between socioeconomic and medical conditions on one hand and the health of the aged on the other. Controlling for socioeconomic status substantially contributes significantly to utilization. Also, aged women experience worse health than men, as shown by functioning assessment, self-rated health, chronic conditions and functional limitations. Women have higher rates of healthcare utilization, as shown by significantly higher rates of hospitalization and outpatient encounters. Expansion of the national health insurance scheme to cover the entire older population--for those in both formal and informal employments--is likely to garner increased access and improved health states for the older population.

  17. Estimation the recreational value of Najvan park of Isfahan using a contingent valuation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Sameti

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Determining the real value of natural ecosystems, due to their significant function and ecosystem services and necessity of the best management for make use of them, has a great importance. Recently, natural resource economists have studied ecosystem value of natural resources and its role in human welfare. These studies have made a considerable progress in valuation of environmental as well as ecological services that an ecosystem can offer. Therefore this study tries to determine recreational value of Najvan Park and measure of individual’s willingness to pay (WTP based on contingent valuation method (CVM and dichotomous choices (DC. Logit model was used for measuring of individual WTP. The model parameters were estimated based on the maximum likelihood (ML method. Moreover, the marginal effects of the changes in involved variables in considered model were determined using by factor for calculating of marginal effects. The results showed that individual preservation WTP in Najvan Park is directly related to income and education while it is negatively related tobid, age and the number of family member. The calculation of the expectancy of WTP using logit model led to 8,983 Rials monthly WTP per person.

  18. Treatment preferences of originator versus biosimilar drugs in Crohn's disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baji, Petra; Gulácsi, László; Lovász, Barbara D; Golovics, Petra A; Brodszky, Valentin; Péntek, Márta; Rencz, Fanni; Lakatos, Péter L

    2016-01-01

    To explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn's disease. Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator), 2) severity of disease, 3) availability of continuous medicine supply, 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator, 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only, 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Men, senior consultants, working in inflammatory bowel disease center and treating more patients were more likely willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in case of biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% versus 11% for new patients, and 44% versus 56% for patients already treated with biological. For gastroenterologist, the continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.

  19. A Research on Red Meat Consumption and Preferences: A Case Study in Tekirdağ Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebru Onurlubaş

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, 384 persons have been subjected to questionnaire made in order to determine the red meat consumption and preferences of the people living in the central district of Tekirdağ province. In the study it was determined that all the consumers consumed red meat. According to the findings of the research, the annual red meat consumption per capita was determined to be 34.22 kg. Considering the red meat consumption of the people subjected to research, it was determined that beef meat was the most preferred kind among all the other kinds of red meat. In the study, it was determined that in red meat buying place preference consumers prefer traditional retailers such as butcher been specialized. Consumers prefer red meat due to be the most nutritious, respectively be healthy, delicious, habit and easy to access. It was determined that 47.5% of consumers participated in the study were ready to pay extra for red meat in the food safety. It was determined 75.6% people participated in the study consume more red meat if the price of red meat cheapens. A logit model was used for analyzing the factors that influence the red meat consumption of the families participating in this research. According to the logit model results, it was determined that the families’ red meat consumption amount is affected from statistical variables such as; number of family members, education level, spouse's employment status, income, cheapening of the price of red meat .

  20. Preference elicitation approach for measuring the willingness to pay for liver cancer treatment in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghun Cho

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background/AimsThe Korean government has expanded the coverage of the national insurance scheme for four major diseases: cancers, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and rare diseases. This policy may have a detrimental effect on the budget of the national health insurance agency. Like taxes, national insurance premiums are levied on the basis of the income or wealth of the insured.MethodsUsing a preference elicitation method, we attempted to estimate how much people are willing to pay for insurance premiums that would expand their coverage for liver cancer treatment.ResultsWe calculated the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP through the marginal rate of substitution between the two attributes of the insurance premium and the total annual treatment cost by adopting conditional logit and mixed logit models.ConclusionsThe effects of various other terms that could interact with socioeconomic status were also estimated, such as gender, income level, educational attainment, age, employment status, and marital status. The estimated MWTP values of the monthly insurance premium for liver cancer treatment range from 4,130 KRW to 9,090 KRW.